Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 6/14/26 Francis Kelly 6/14/26

The Global Week Ahead

June 14 - 21, 2026

The G7 Summit and a Possible Iran Peace Deal Will Dominate the Week, UK Prime Minister Starmer Faces the Possible End as Prime Minister, and the U.S., UK, Japan, and Australian Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

It appears a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is imminent. Both President Trump and various Iranian leaders have indicated they are closer than ever to striking a deal, or at least to a substantially more robust, longer-term cease-fire. President Trump has told reporters he expects the deal to be signed “in the next few hours.” However, it appears another flare-up between Israeli forces and Hezbollah may delay or even derail the deal. We will have more on the deal if and when it is signed.

This all comes as the G7 Leaders’ Summit begins on Monday and runs through Wednesday in Evian, France. Both the Iran situation and the Ukraine War will dominate leaders' discussions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will join for part of the meetings. The UK, France, and Germany have formulated a five-point peace framework they want President Trump to endorse, which would create a quadripartite negotiation format– Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., and the EU at the table working toward a deal. President Trump has not indicated whether he will support the plan.

The talks come as Russia finds itself increasingly stressed domestically in the face of Ukraine’s surging military on the front lines and via long-range drone strikes. Ukrainian drone strikes have forced nearly all major oil refineries in central Russia to either suspend operations or reduce fuel production. Russia imposed a temporary ban on gasoline exports from April 1st through the end of July.

Moscow has also prohibited jet fuel exports through November 30. Russian oil refining volumes have fallen at least 10% over several months in 2026, with diesel production down roughly 10% in May alone.

Reuters estimated 700,000 barrels per day of refining capacity at 16 refineries offline — roughly double the 2025 figure — with 35 primary distillation units shut. Russian refining is running at 4.58 mbpd in May 2026, 13% below May 2025.

Additionally, G7 leaders are expected to discuss the U.S.’s 15% universal tariffs, which expire on July 24th, and what comes next. There is hope that there will be sideline discussions between President Trump and leaders from Japan and South Korea to advance efforts to hammer out final trade deals (President Lee Jae-myung is an invited guest – South Korea is not a member of the G7).

However, this depends on whether President Trump shows up to the summit: There is a risk that he will cancel his attendance to focus on finalizing the Iran trade deal.

Also, this week, amid the G7 meeting, the EU Parliament is expected to approve the EU-U.S. Trade Agreement. It has been a bumpy path to a final deal, with the EU Parliament suspending work on it after President Trump raised Greenland as a bargaining chip.

The UK is facing an extraordinary leadership challenge this week. The Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, is running in a by-election this week for a seat in parliament. If elected – and Burnham, a widely popular member of the Labour Party – is widely expected to win – he will immediately challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labor Party. Burnham’s challenge is likely to ignite weeks of campaigning and likely other challengers to Starmer joining in, all of which suggest Starmer’s tenure as Prime Minister is coming to an end.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, central bank interest rate action is the key theme for markets. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia are all meeting.

In the U.S., Kevin Warsh will be chairing his first Open Market Meeting as Fed Chair. How the committee – and Warsh – see growing inflation risk will be paramount. It is likely the Fed will hold interest rates. Also in the U.S., this week is a shortened week with the Juneteenth holiday on Friday. There are several important economic reports out this week, including May retail sales on Wednesday and several housing indicators.

In Europe, the Bank of England meets on Thursday and is likely to hold rates steady. This comes after the UK’s May CPI is released on Wednesday, labor market data on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday. Germany’s June ZEW Survey is out Tuesday, and PPI is out on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Tuesday. The BoJ is expected to raise rates 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level it has been at in 31 years. Markets will also get the May CPI on Friday. China publishes industrial production numbers and April’s retail sales figures on Tuesday. And the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to hold rates steady.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, June 14, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump turns 80 years old.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London. She will then travel to Italy to meet Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and France for the G7 Leaders’ Summit. The agenda for all three stops is the same: the joint next-generation fighter jet development project (GCAP), cybersecurity, and outer space cooperation are the bilateral priorities with both the UK and Italy. At the G7 level, Japan is positioning itself as Asia's voice on energy security — given that the Strait of Hormuz closure has hit Asia hardest — and is pushing for G7 coordination on stabilizing crude oil markets, critical minerals supply chains, and Ukraine support.

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yik travels to Mongolia for meetings through June 15th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Switzerland holds a referendum on a proposal to limit immigration Ater the country reaches 10 million.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will travel to Belarus to meet with President Lukasheno.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 15, 2026

Global

· The 52nd G7 Summit begins in Evian, France and runs through June 17th. Leaders are expected to discuss a number of issues ranging from overall geopolitical challenges, the situation in Ukraine and the Middle east, the state of international partnerships, and the future of AI. Our view is the summit is best understood not as a policy-making event but as a real-time pressure test of Western cohesion on three simultaneous shocks — energy/Iran, trade architecture, and critical minerals. The highest-value watch item is whether the Iran deal actually closes in the margins of the summit, which would have immediate downstream effects on energy prices, shipping costs, and Gulf state positioning. The Trump tariff issue is the second-order issue to track: the summit is likely to be used to telegraph what replaces the U.S.’ Section 122 authority, and alignment between the U.S. and G7 partners on Section 301 successor mechanisms would be a meaningful signal for industrial and trade-exposed portfolios. The absence of a joint communiqué for a second straight year should register as a structural data point — it is not a surprise, but a confirmation that the old G7 consensus architecture is being replaced by something more transactional and bilateral.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Congress is out of session this week and return to work on June 22nd.

· The Canadian Parliament is in session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Housing Starts (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (April)/ Wholesale Sales (April)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production(May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (June)/ NOPA Crush Report

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Myanmar's president, Min Aung Hlaing, is due to arrive in China for a state visit, scheduled through Friday. The president is fresh off a trip to India, which was his first foreign visit since he switched from being leader of Myanmar's military regime. Chinese President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, has engaged in a flurry of diplomacy in recent weeks, hosting U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin along with visiting North Korea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q2/ Composite NZ PCI (May)/ Services NZ PSI (May)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (May)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (April)

· India WPI Food Index (May)/ WPI Fuel (May)/ WPI Inflation (May)/ WPI Manufacturing (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Nidec (Japan)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha via videoconference. The Council will also discuss the situation in the Middle East in light of the latest developments of the war in Iran and its effects across the region. Ministers will further exchange on the critical situation in Lebanon amid ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as on Gaza and the West Bank. Ministers will then turn to discuss the state of play between the EU and China.

· The Second Accession Conference with Ukraine takes places in Luxembourg. It brings Ukraine a step closer to EU membership. The meeting will serve to open negotiations on cluster 1: fundamentals. This cluster covers notably the rule of law and fundamental rights, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform, and economic criteria, and includes the following negotiating chapters: Chapter 23 – Judiciary and fundamental rights, Chapter 24 – Justice, freedom and security, Chapter 5 – Public procurement, Chapter 18 – Statistics, and Chapter 32 – Financial control.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan for meetings in Moscow.

· The 27th Accession Conference with Montenegro takes place in Luxembourg. The meeting will serve to provisionally close negotiations on chapters 2 (free movement of workers) and 28 (consumer and health protection).

· The Second Accession Conference with the Republic of Moldova takes place in Luxembourg. The meeting will serve to open negotiations on cluster 1: fundamentals. This cluster covers notably the rule of law and fundamental rights, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform, and economic criteria, and includes the following negotiating chapters: Chapter 23 – Judiciary and fundamental rights, Chapter 24 – Justice, freedom and security, Chapter 5 – Public procurement, Chapter 18 – Statistics, and Chapter 32 – Financial control

· The EU-Egypt Association Council takes place in Luxembourg. The meeting will be co-chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt, Badr Abdelatty, who will be leading the Egyptian delegation. Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica, will represent the European Commission. Building on the first EU-Egypt summit held in October 2025, the Association Council will review the implementation of the EU-Egypt Strategic and Comprehensive Partnership, launched in March 2024, and discuss avenues for further strengthening bilateral cooperation. The parties are expected to take stock of progress across the Partnership's six pillars, namely political relations, economic stability, trade and investment, migration and mobility, security, and demography and human capital. The exchange will also provide an opportunity to discuss global issues of common interest and the regional situation, including developments in the Middle East and North Africa region and their implications for EU-Egypt cooperation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded opening keynote speech at the ECB conference "Money in transition: digitalization and innovation in payments" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs session 1 "Fostering digital finance in Europe" at ECB conference "Money in transition: digitalization and innovation in payments" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives a keynote speech at Euro Finance Summit in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

· Romania Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Turkey Industrial Production (April)/ Budget Balance (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate (May)

· Italy Balance of Trade (April)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Greece Construction Output Q1

· Serbia Building Permits (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

· Israel Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Global

· The G7 Leaders’ Summit continues in Evian, France.

· https://www.worldbank.org/en/events/2026/06/16/abcde-2026The World Bank’s Annual Conference on Development Economics begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through June 17th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. and Mexico hold a second round of USMCA negotiations in Washington, D.C. The meeting will be focused on agricultural issues.

· U.S. primary elections are held in Oklahoma, with runoff votes in Alabama and Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ IGP-10 Inflation (June)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (April)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Building Permits Prel (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Import/Export Prices (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (June)/ Redbook (June/13)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/12)

· Columbia Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (April)

· EARNINGS: La-Z Boy

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import/Export Prices (May)

· New Zealand Food Inflation (May)

· The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates. The BoJ is expected to raise the policy rate to 1%, the highest level in 31 years.

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q1

· The Reserve bank of Australia meets on interest rates.

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

· China House Price Index (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The European Parliament is expected to give their final approval to EU-US trade deal. The proposals, already agreed by Parliament and Council negotiators, would eliminate most tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods from the US. At the same time, negotiators agreed on several elements strengthening the Commission’s original proposal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will be invited to approve the Council’s negotiating position on the proposed directive regarding the placing on the market of genetically modified micro-organisms (GMMs) and the processing of organs. Ministers will also hold a policy debate on the proposed regulation establishing a framework of measures to strengthen the EU’s biotechnology and biomanufacturing sectors, particularly in the area of health. The regulation, which forms part of the European Biotech Act I, was announced on 16 December 2025 as part of the Commission’s Health Package.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers responsible for European affairs will meet in Luxembourg to continue preparations for the June European Council meeting by discussing draft conclusions. The Council will hold a policy debate on a draft negotiating box regarding the new MFF 2028-2034. Ministers will be also invited to adopt partial general approaches on the three main components of the new MFF, namely the:

o regulation establishing the European Fund for economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture and rural, fisheries and maritime, prosperity and security (NRPP regulation)

o regulation on establishing the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), including the specific program for defense research and innovation activities

o regulation establishing the Global Europe instrument

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a roundtable discussion at DigitalEurope Finance Executive Council Summer Summit 2026 in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a stage conversation at Reuters NEXT Europe 2026 in London.

· Turkey Retail Sales (April)

· Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ ZEW Current Conditions (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (May)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ Labour Cost Index Q1/ Wage Growth Q1

· Belarus Industrial Production (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

· Israel Unemployment Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The World Bank Institute's Africa Growth and Opportunity: Research in Action Conference is being in Palermo, Italy through June 17th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Global

· The G7 Leaders’ Summit concludes in Evian, France.

· The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings on interest rates, the first chaired by newly sworn-in Chair Kevin Warsh. He will hold his first press conference at 2:00 p.m.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/12)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (June/12)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/12)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (June/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/12)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Retail Sales Control Group (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Inventories (April)/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (April)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (June/12)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Canada New Housing Price Index (May)

· Columbia Consumer Confidence (May)

· EARNINGS: CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s top financial regulators gather in Shanghai alongside global central bankers and finance executives for the Lujiazui Forum, which runs through June 18th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Current Account Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June)/16

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (June)/ Import/Export/Balance of Trade (May)/ Machinery Orders (April)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (May)/ Non-Oil Exports (May)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (May)/ RBA Jones Speech/ RBA Chart Pack

· Philippines Cash Remittances (April)

· China FDI (YTD) (May)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Russia-ASEAN summit begins in Kazan, Russia, and through June 18th. President Vladimir Putin expected to meet with various heads of states.

· VivaTech 2026, Europe’s biggest technology event, begins in Paris, France.

· Today is Iceland Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the XIX Cotec Europe Summit "Rethinking work in the age of AI: Transformation, Opportunity, Governance" in Venice, Italy

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at the 2026 Salzburg Global Finance Forum in Salzburg, Austria. He later participates on a panel discussing the future of money.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpens speaks at European Economics & Financial Center in Brussels.

· Turkey Auto Production (May)/ Auto Sales (May)

· UK Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI Output (May)/ PPI Input/Output (May)/ Retail Price Index (May)

· Hungary Gross Wage (April)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

· Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI (May)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Ireland Balance of Trade (April)/ Residential Property Prices (April)

· Serbia Current Account (April)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

· EARNINGS: AO World

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

· South Africa Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Obama Presidential Center dedication ceremony. The campus and museum, on the south side of Chicago, open to the public on Friday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q1/ Aggregate Demand Q1/ Private Spending Q1/

· Canada PPI (May)/ Raw Materials Prices (May)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (June/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/06)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (June/13)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (June)/ Philly Fed Employment (June)/ Philly Fed New Orders (June)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (June)/ CB Leading Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/12)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (June/18)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/18)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/19)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/19)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (April)/ Overall Net Capital Flows(April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/17)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Leading Indicator (May)

· Columbia ISE Economic Activity (April)

· EARNINGS: Accenture, Kroger, Empire Company (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea’s $350 billion Korea-US Strategic Investment Corporation will be launched as part of the recently passed Special Act on Investment in the U.S.

· Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/13)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (June)/ Lending Facility Rate (June)/ Loan Growth (May)/

· Tawain M2 Money Supply May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· A U.K. parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, Greater Manchester will be held. Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is expected to win and immediately challenge Prime Minister Kier Starmer for the Prime Minister – and is widely expected to succeed in the effort.

· The European Council meets through June 19th in Brussels. EU leaders are expected to focus mostly on the impact of the Iran War on Europe and Ukraine’s accession process to joining the EU.

· NATO Defense Ministers meet in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a roundtable discussion at IE University event "Climate Transition and Competitiveness: Ambition, Advantages and Trade-offs" in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an online speech at a policy breakfast "L'EURO DIGITALE. Le implicazioni per il sistema monetario europeo e le dinamiche nazionali" organized by Istituto per la Competitività in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a session entitled "Session on monetary policymaking under uncertainty" at Deutsche Bank Forum in London.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at payments conference in Eltville, Germany.

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (May)

· Belarus GDP (May)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

· The Bank of England will meet on interest rate policy. The BoE is expected to hold rates steady.

· UK Unemployment Rate (April)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (April)/Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (May)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Euro Area Current Account (April)/ Current Account s.a (April)/ Construction Output (April)

· Italy Current Account (April)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/12

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Whitbread, Tesco, FirstGroup, Bulkers

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (May)

· South Africa Building Permits (April)

Friday, June 19, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. observes the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday. Financial markets, banks, and the federal government are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (June)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/

· Argentina Retail Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong and Taiwan observe Dragon Boat Festival. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (May)

· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/12)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)/Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Japan Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel at the Natixis International SSA Conference in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the 80th anniversary of the Italian Constitution organized by Università di Roma Sapienza in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at the Annual Conference of the Spanish Centre for Sustainable and Responsible Finance (FINRESP) in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a policy conversation with Gita Gopinath at PSE-CEPR Policy Forum in Paris, France.

· UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (May)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (May)

· Germany PPI (May)

· Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/

· Poland Industrial Production (May)

· Greece Current Account (April)

· Italy Construction Output (April)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ M2 Money Supply (May)

· Slovakia Current Account (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (June)

· Oman Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana PP (May)

Saturday, June 20, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Columbia Presidential Elections - 2nd Round

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 21, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombia holds the 2nd round of their presidential elections. In the first round, right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella captured 44% of the vote, ahead of left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda of the ruling Historic Pact with 41%. The two candidates sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum with vastly different visions — particularly on security and the role of the state. De la Espriella is running as a hardline anti-crime outsider; Cepeda is pitching himself as the continuation of outgoing President Petro's progressive agenda. As of today, prediction markets are assigning roughly an 88% probability to De la Espriella winning.

· The final round of the U.S. Open is played at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southhampton, New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· June 23 – The World Economic Forum’s New Champions meeting in Dalian, China.

· July 7 – 8: The NATO Summit will be held in Ankara, Turkey.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

Francis Kelly 6/12/26 Francis Kelly 6/12/26

Latest Fulcrum Macro Advisors Presentation

June 1, 2026

Talking Hedge Austin 2026 Conference

We were delighted to speak at the recent Talking Hedge Austin 2026 Conference in Austin, Texas. The event - attended by close to 200 leading hedge fund managers, asset management portfolio managers, and pension fund chief investment officers - was the perfect setting for a dynamic discussion of the leading geopolitical issues, macro strategy challenges, and general outlook for the rest of 2026 and 2027.

The theme of the talk was “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once: Making Sense of Wars, Trade Policy, Tech, and Geopolitics.”

You can access the presentation HERE or via the window below. We hope you find it useful.

Please let us know if you have any questions.

Francis Kelly 5/31/26 Francis Kelly 5/31/26

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Prudential Regulators To Testify in the House, Treasury Secretary Bessent Testifies Before Congress, and the SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee Discusses Semi-Annual Reporting and Proxy Voting

June 1 - 5, 2026

After the quiet of last week (nothing happened with the Memorial Day break – hence, we did not publish last week), things spring back to life this week in Washington.

The big event this week will be the prudential regulators - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Comptroller Jonathan Gould, FDIC Chairman Travis Hill, and Acting National Credit Union Administration Chairman Kyle Hauptman – testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. We believe a big focus of questioning will be centered on issues dogging the ongoing housing bill and crypto bill. But we also have reason to believe that committee members will be focused on the Fed’s work to develop new tailoring rules for banks.

This comes after an interesting Reuters report last week detailing how banks are quietly but insistently pushing the Fed behind the scenes to lock in its new supervisory regime so it cannot be easily reversed by a potential future Democratic administration.

Also on Capitol Hill this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying in both chambers on the Treasury Department’s proposed 2027 budget. While dollars and cents will be the focus, it is also highly likely that questions will be fired off at Bessent on a host of other issues, including in the financial regulatory arena and the newly proposed $250 bill featuring President Trump’s face.

We will be watching the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Investor Advisory Committee meeting this week. It is a hot agenda, covering everything from the proposed move to semi-annual corporate reporting to proxy voting reform to the role of individual investors in the private.

Looking back at last week, the SEC released their proposed rescission of climate-related disclosure rules. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said in a written statement: “SEC disclosure obligations should comply with the Commission’s statutory authority, be guided by materiality as the North Star, avoid the practical effect of dictating corporate behavior, and be imposed only when the expected benefits justify the likely costs and burdens.” The release has a 60-day comment period.

Finally, we would note that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) sent a notice to all staff across the country that they are now expected to work out of a new office in Washington, D.C. – a move widely seen as a stealthy reduction-in-force plan.

The CFPB staffing issue has been a long-running litigation battlefield, with the Trump Administration initially reducing staff by roughly 25% (from 1,750 to 1,100). But in April 2025, the Administration attempted to cut 1,500 more staff – approximately 90% of the remaining staff – bringing it down to roughly 200. But a federal judge blocked that move, and the case has been in litigation ever since. Since then, the Administration has offered a new plan that would cut staff to 556, which the federal judge is now considering.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on the Treasury Department’s 2027 Budget. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

House of Representatives

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifying.

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Oversight of Prudential Regulators.” Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Comptroller Jonathan Gould, FDIC Chairman Travis Hill, and Acting National Credit Union Administration Chairman Kyle Hauptman will testify.

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee will hold a meeting with Agriculture Department Secretary Brooke Rollin testifying.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· Tuesday, June 2, 8:30 a.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives remarks and participates in a conversation on monetary policy co-hosted by the Cleveland Fed, the City Club of Cleveland, the Greater Cleveland Partnership, and the 50 Club of Cleveland.

· Wednesday, June 3, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation event at the Community Development Bankers Association (CDBA) Peer Forum 2026, Washington, D.C.

· Saturday, June 6, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on supervision and regulation at the 5th DC Finance Conference, Washington, D.C.

Conferences –

· Nothing is scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the House Ways and Means Committee.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC’s The SEC's Investor Advisory Committee is holding a meeting to discuss avoiding retail confusion regarding private market assets, passive index funds, shareholder voting, fund proxy voting, and recommendations regarding quarterly vs. semi-annual reporting.

· Thursday, June 4, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday & Thursday, June 3 – 4 – SIFMA will be holding its annual Anti-Money Laundering & Financial Crimes Conference in New York. US Attorney for the Southern District (and former SEC Chair) Jay Clayton will be speaking.

· Wednesday, June 3, 8:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2026 US Regulatory & Compliance Orientation Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, June 2, 9:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a conference entitled “The Powell Years at the Fed: A Retrospective.” Former Vice Chairs for Supervision Randy Quarles and Dan Tarullo will speak as will former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, as well as former Vice Chairs for Monetary Policy Alan Blinder and Donald Kohn.

· Saturday, June 6 – The 5th Annual DC Finance Conference will take place at American University in Washington, D.C. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will speak.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/31/26 Francis Kelly 5/31/26

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S.–Iran Peace Negotiations Drag On, Lebanon and Israel Continue Talking as Fighting Ramps Up, Colombia, Peru, and Ethiopia Hold Important Elections, and Markets Await Inflation and Jobs Reports

May 31 - June 1, 2026

Heading into the new week, markets continue to watch the slow-moving peace talks between the Trump Administration and the Iranian regime’s leadership. While details remain murky and the reporting on the issue has been confusing at best, it still appears there is a potential memorandum of understanding between the two sides. Reports surfaced late Thursday claiming a tentative deal had been reached to extend the cease-fire. But on Friday, President Trump reportedly sent back a series of demands to the Iranian leadership – none of which were apparently well-received in Tehran.

Specifically, President Trump – according to a Truth Social posting – demanded Iran agree to never develop a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened to unrestricted shipping traffic with no tolls imposed by the newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority.” The President then met with aides in the National Security Council for two hours, but no new decisions were made.

Meanwhile, Iran has now pushed back, demanding new conditions which include the cessation of Israel’s military operations in Lebanon against the Iranian proxy force Hezbollah. But that is unlikely to happen as Israeli forces are continuing their drive into Lebanon, capturing the medieval crusader castle of Beauford (the deepest incursion of the Israeli military into Lebanon in 26 years),which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu marked a “dramatic shift” in the campaign. Netanyahu vowed Israeli forces would push deeper into Lebanon, sending evacuation notices to civilians more than 25 miles deep into the country. Critically, Lebanese and Israeli negotiators are scheduled to hold a fourth round of talks at the Pentagon in Washington this week. All in all, it does not look like any real settlement of hostilities, either in Lebanon or with Iran, is likely this week.

Elsewhere, three big elections are being held this week: First, Colombia is holding presidential elections today (Sunday). Left-wing/Marxist Iván Cepeda is seen as the frontrunner in polls but is unlikely to secure the 50% vote needed for victory. That makes the race between right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia critical to determining if Cepeda will likely win in the second round of voting or if the center/right has a shot at winning the presidency.

And in Peru, the presidential election is heading into the decisive second round next Sunday (June 7th) between conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sánchez. Fujimori is slightly ahead in most polls.

Finally, Ethiopia is holding general elections on Monday for the country’s lower house and regional assemblies. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party is projected to win in a landslide (as there is no coalition among the opposition, which also finds it hard to campaign with tough government restrictions placed on them). The elections are important from a regional security perspective, as there are currently three active insurgencies in Ethiopia and ongoing tensions with Sudan and Egypt – all of which affect security in the broader Horn of Africa and commercial shipping via the Suez Canal. And with the global economic repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz being shut, any risk to shipping through the Suez would be a major new shock.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, starting with the U.S. markets, we are waiting to see the U.S. jobs report on Friday, preceded by the JOLTS report on Tuesday and ADP’s private payrolls report on Wednesday. Additionally, the May ISM indices are out this week (manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday), as is the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday. There is not much in the way of Fed speeches this week – aside from two by Fed Governor Michael Barr – as the Fed is getting ready to go into its quiet period.

Canada reports manufacturing PMIs on Monday and services PMI, along with Q1 productivity on Wednesday. And Ivey PMIs are out on Friday. These come on the heels of Statistics Canada reporting the country technically slipped into a technical recession in Q1 for the first time since 2020.

In Asia, China’s PMIs are out on Sunday (government figures on Sunday and private manufacturing and services on Monday and Wednesday, respectively). Japan’s Finance Ministry releases financial statement statistics on Monday and labor earnings on Friday. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech on Wednesday.

And in Europe, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) consumer expectations survey is out Monday, and the Eurozone’s May flash CPI is out on Tuesday, with Germany, France, and Italy on Thursday. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Thursday (in advance of the blackout period for the June 11th monetary policy meeting), and several other ECB board members will speak earlier this week as well. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has several public appearances this coming week, as well. We would also note that Boris Vujčić becomes vice-president of the European Central Bank on Monday. It is a non-renewable eight-year term, replacing Luis de Guindos.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombia holds presidential elections. Current polling points to a runoff between left wing candidate Ivan Cepeda and a right-wing contender. The first round will determine if establishment figure, Paloma Valencia or radical outsider, Abelardo de la Espriella, advance to the runoff. Valencia would prove more attractive to centrist swing voters. Her victory would reinforce our outlook that the opposition wins the presidency.

· Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira will pay an official visit to China through June 2nd. Vieira and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will co-chair the fifth China-Brazil Foreign Ministerial-Level Comprehensive Strategic Dialogue, with the readout framed around Global South coordination, BRICS, and the community-of-shared-future agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Orašac, Croatia

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell gives acceptance remarks at the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing will visit India through June 3rd.

· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary and President To Lam will undertake a state visit to the Philippines through June 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene: Panel at the 32nd Dubrovnic Economics Conference ‘Stablecoins and monetary policy’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea holds elections for its National Assembly as well as municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 1, 2026

Global

· Colombia takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of June.

· Today is the first day of the meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

· The World Health Assembly Meeting is being held in Geneva, Switzerland through today. Global health leaders are aiming to finally adopt the long-overdue **Pandemic Agreement**, establishing the first unified international framework for pandemic preparedness and response.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The head of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang Party, Cheng Li-wun, will begin a visit to the U.S. for two weeks. She will meet with members of Congress, participate in a number of closed-door think tank events all almost exclusively focusing on cross-strait security issues. Cheng has also expressed her hope to meet with President Trump. She will then travel to New York and Boston.

· The U.S. Supreme Court is approaching its end-of-term window (typically late June). There are a number of major decisions to handed down and most are expected in the coming weeks. These include: Trump v. Barbara on birthright citizenship, Louisiana v. Callais on gerrymandering, and State of Illinois v. Trump challenging the president's deployment of National Guard forces to Chicago — rulings that could significantly alter Trump's executive authority and the congressional map.

· The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate return to work after being in recess last week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Carolyn Rogers, will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

· Mexico Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (May)/ Construction Spending (April)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (May)

· Peru Inflation Rate (May)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

· EARNINGS: HP

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A U.S. trade delegation will visit India to discuss the bilateral trade deal through June 4th. The meetings are hoping "to finalize the details" of an interim trade agreement between Washington and New Delhi, as well as take forward negotiations on multiple areas such as market access, nontariff measures and investment promotion under a proposed broader pact. This comes on the heels of an Indian trade team visiting Washington from April 20th to 23rd for meetings with their American counterparts.

· Today is Samoa Independence Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May)/ Commodity Prices (May)

· Japan Capital Spending Q1/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)

· EARNINGS: Nidec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the June bank holiday in in the UK. Banks and financial markets will be closed.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers in Lefkosia, Cyprus through June 2nd.

· The EU – Pakistan Strategic Dialogue will take place in Islamabad, Pakistan.

· The Oslo Freedom Forum begins in Oslo, Norway. Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a speech at the 2026 Bank of Korea International Conference in Seoul, Korea.

· Germany Retail Sales (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ethiopia holds elections general elections. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is highly likely to win along with his Prosperity Party.

· South Africa’s National Assembly is scheduled to hold the first meeting of the impeachment committee against President Cyril Ramaphosa, but it could be postponed due to legal action by the president.

· Today is Madaraka Day (Self-Governance Day) in Kenya. It is a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Ethiopia General Election

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israel and Lebanon will hold their fourth round of direct talks in Washington, D.C. through June 3rd.

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the State Department’s 2027 budget request. However, the questioning from senators will almost assuredly veer into policy questions.

· California holds primary elections. These include Democrat and Republican gubernatorial races and all 52 state House seats. Voters in Los Angeles will also vote in the increasingly hotly contested mayoral race between incumbent Karen Bass and former reality TV star Spencer Pratt. Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota are also holding primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives remarks and participates in conversation on monetary policy co-hosted by the Cleveland Fed, the City Club of Cleveland, the Greater Cleveland Partnership, and the 50 Club of Cleveland.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May)

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Redbook (May/30)/ JOLTs Job Openings (April)/ JOLTs Job Quits (April)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/29)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

· EARNINGS: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Donaldson

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The COMUTEX Technology Conference begins in Taipei, Taiwan and runs through June 5th. Speakers at the event include Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Marvell Technologies CEO Matt Murphy, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

· Japan Monetary Base

· Australia RBA Harper Speech/ Building Permits (April)/ Company Gross Profits Q1/ Building Permits (April)/ Business Inventories Q1/ Current Account Q1/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q1/ Private House Approvals (April)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament's international trade committee will vote on the final trilogue deal implementing the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement ahead of a plenary vote likely to take place in mid-June.

· Today is Republic Day in Italy, celebrating the day in 1946 when Italians were called to vote and form a new government after World War II.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies before the House of Lords Economic Committee.

· European Central Bank Board Member Boris Vujčić will give online remarks at the Icelandic conference on the occasion of the publication of the report by Catherine Mann on Iceland’s currency options.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the University of Derby Business School.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Inflation Rate Flash (May)

· Spain New Car Sales (May)/ Unemployment Change (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (April)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q1

· France Budget Balance (April)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q1

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Total Credit (April)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ Mortgage Approvals (April)/ Mortgage Lending (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Net Lending to Individuals (April)/ CPI Flash (May)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q1

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (May)

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Global

· The OECD publishes its twice-yearly Economic Outlook is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Venezuelan unions will protest nationwide to call for free elections, the release of political prisoners and improved service delivery.

· Paraguay will host Mercosur’s 68th Summit.

· The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on the Treasury Department’s 2027 Budget. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

· The Bloomberg Tech Conference takes place in San Francisco, California through June 4th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation event at the Community Development Bankers Association (CDBA) Peer Forum 2026, Washington, D.C.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/29)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ Factory Orders (April)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (May)/ ISM Services Employment (May)/ ISM Services New Orders (May)/ ISM Services Prices (May)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (May/29)/ Fed Beige Book/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

· Brazil Industrial Production (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q1/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Exports (April)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· EARNINGS: Broadcom, CrowdStrike Holdings, Medtronic, Veeva Systems, Descartes Systems (Can), Macy’s, Industries CH (MEX), Transcontinental (CAN), Canaccord Genuity (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea will hold local elections for provincial governors, city mayors and local assembly members. This vote serves as a vital mid-term temperature check for the country's current administration under left-leaning President Lee and his foreign policy stance toward China and North Korea. Current polls suggest Lee’s Democratic Party is leading in all major polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a meeting of business leaders at the Kisaragi-kai meeting in Japan.

· New Zealand Building Permits (April)/Imports/ Export Prices Q1/ Terms of Trade Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/02)

· Australia Ai Group Construction Index (May)/ Ai Group Industry Index (May)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Chain Price Index Q1/ GDP Consumption Q1/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (May)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

· Japan S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (May)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (May)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (May)/ HSBC Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 29th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 6th. Historically dubbed the "Russian Davos," its function has entirely shifted toward rewriting trade routes and financial models outside the Western sphere. Russian President Vladimir Putin may speak at the event – as he has traditionally done – but this has yet to be confirmed yet (Putin does not make his schedule public in advance due to the Ukrainian War and increased risk of Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia).

· The European Parliament is expected to release legislative texts for the EU Tech Sovereignty Package which was proposed by the European Commission on May 27th. The measure is expected to put in place new restrictions on the use of U.S. cloud providers — including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud — for sensitive government data across all 27 EU member states. And it is expected to include the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) and a Chips Act update. The restrictions apply to public-sector organizations handling financial, judicial, and healthcare data; private companies are not covered.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will host French President Emmanuel Macron in Rome. The talks will cover "the main topics of the bilateral, European and international agenda.”

· The Bank of England launches a public vote on the proposed wildlife images for next banknotes (as opposed to famous politicians or monarchs).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson give a keynote speech at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2026 in Zurich, Switzerland.

· European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (May)

· Turkey Balance of Trade (May)/ Imports/Exports (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/22)

· France New Car Registrations (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Romania PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ PPI (April)

· UK S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (May)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tanzania will host the Tanzania Investment Summit in Arusha through June 5th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Business Confidence Q2/ S&P Global PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the House Ways and Means Committee.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/30)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/23)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/30)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labor Costs Q1/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/29)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (June/04)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/03)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

· Columbia PPI (May)

· EARNINGS: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica (CAN), Toro, Docusign, Enghouse Systems (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the anniversary of the Chinese Communist Government’s violent crackdown on students and other protestors in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in 1989. No commemoration ceremonies are allowed in mainland China and now in Hong Kong (where there used to be annual candlelit ceremonies).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock and Christopher Kent, assistant governor (financial markets), give evidence to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee in Canberra

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/30)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/30)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)

· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

· Thailand Business Confidence (May)

· EARNINGS: NIO (CHN), Sekisui House (JPN)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Justice and Home Affairs (Home Affairs) Council Ministers will meet in Luxembourg. They will discuss he overall state of the Schengen area. The Commission will present its 2026 State of Schengen Report, which outlines how the Schengen acquis has been implemented over the past year. The Council will then define the actions that it views as priorities for the Schengen Council cycle 2026-2027. The Commission and EU-LISA will then give updates on the implementation of the interoperability of large-scale IT systems, including the Entry/Exit System and ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System). Then they will discuss migration issues, the future legal status of displaced Ukrainians living in the EU, and EU security issues dealing with the Iranian War.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for Cohesion Policy through June 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

· The Brussels Economic Security Summit 2026 begins and runs through June 5th.

· Workers on London’s Underground rail service are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Today is the feast of Corpus Christi. The European Central Bank is closed.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks at the first Journée de réseaux de femmes dans la santé en Région Sud in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur organized by Agence Régionale de Santé in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Investment Association Annual Conference 2026 in London.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)/ Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GNP Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Italy New Car Registrations (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Russia GDP (April)

· Romania Retail Sales (April)

· Hungary Retail Sales (April)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)/Unemployment Rate (May)

· Slovakia Retail Sales ARP

· Spain Industrial Production (April)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/29)

· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· France S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

· UK New Car Sales (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, June 5, 2026

Global

· WL (World) Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (May)

· FAO Food Price Index (May)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ Full Time Employment Chg (May)/ Part Time Employment Chg (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Hourly Wages (May)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

· USA Nonfarm Payrolls (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/Average Hourly Earnings (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Weekly Hours (May)/ Government Payrolls (May)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (May)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (May)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (May)/ Used Car Prices (May)/ Used Car Prices (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/05)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/05)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)

· Brazil Car Production (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

· Columbia Inflation Rate (May)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (May)

· EARNINGS: ABM Industries

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (April)

· Japan Household Spending (April)/ Household Spending (April)/ Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Economic Index (April)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (May)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 3rd Est 2025-26/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/29)

· Singapore Retail Sales (April)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Western Balkans Summit will take place in Tivat, Montenegro. The summit will be chaired by the President of the European Council and hosted by the President of Montenegro. The EU will be represented by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. High Representative Kaja Kallas will also participate. The agenda includes discussion of the gradual integration and growth plan of the region in to the EU as well as strengthening security and defense cooperation.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss a proposed regulation on recognition of parenthood. The proposal aims to ensure continuity of parenthood in cross-border situations and thereby protect all children, regardless of how they were conceived or born and regardless of their type of family. They will also approve a partial mandate on the new Justice program supporting, among others, judicial cooperation in civil and ‎criminal matters and judicial ‎training and promoting the independence and impartiality ‎of the judiciary. This program will be part of the next multiannual financial framework (MFF) covering the period 2028 to 2034. Additionally, ministers will discuss hate crime and hate speech.

· Today is Constitution Day in Denmark. It is a half-day holiday for workers and financial markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a conversation with Ed Balls and Stephanie Flanders marking the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations” in London.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will give a keynote speech at the UCL MacroMonitor Launch in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives a keynote speech at the "Pan-European Conglomerate Club" meeting in Helsinki, Finland.

· Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1

· UK Halifax House Price Index (May)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (May)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

· Hungary Industrial Production (April)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)

· Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q1

· Greece GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Italy Retail Sales (April)

· Serbia PPI (May)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· EARNINGS: Telecom Italia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (May)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Saturday, June 6, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on supervision and regulation at the 5th DC Finance Conference, Washington, D.C.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Leo begins a six-day visit to Spain and the Canary Islands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (May)

· Kazakhstan PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 7, 2026

Global

· OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Peru holds the 2nd round of presidential elections between conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sánchez. The winner will become the 10th president of Peru in the last ten years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia holds parliamentary elections.

· Jersey holds parliamentary elections.

· Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers through June 8th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

· Today is Sette Giugno in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· June 10 – The European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

· June 10 – Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting.

· June 11 – July 19 – The World Cup will be held in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.

· June 15 – The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

· June 17 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meeting.

· June 18 – The Bank of England's monetary policy meeting.

· June 23 – The World Economic Forum’s New Champions meeting in Dalian, China.

Francis Kelly 5/29/26 Francis Kelly 5/29/26

The Global Week Ahead

US – Iran Negotiations Drag On, Venezuelan President and US Secretary of State Discuss Oil With India, Colombia Holds Presidential Elections, and Markets Await Inflation Reports

May 24 - 31, 2026

While Washington is quiet this weekend in honor of Memorial Day, negotiations between the US and Iran continue, but seemingly in fits and starts. Both Iranian and US media reports suggested Friday that significant progress had been made toward finalizing a peace deal.

But as details began to leak out, President Trump faced sharp criticism from Republican lawmakers, including Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who said a 60-day extension of the ceasefire “would be a disaster.” President Trump publicly fired back at them, but it appears he also started adjusting the draft terms of the deal being hammered out with Iran. Accords as part of the ultimate deal. And he seemed to even suggest in a Truth Social post that he would be open to Iran signing onto the Accords (which seems highly unlikely as official Iranian policy has long called for the outright eradication of Israel).

It is understood that many of those Arab countries have asked Trump to refrain from any military attacks this week as the Hajj is underway through May 29th with large numbers of Muslim pilgrims traveling in the region. Meanwhile, Iranian officials said no deal was “imminent,” but conceded that progress had been made.

Additionally, the US will host the next round of Israeli–Lebanese peace talks in Washington later this week. However, those talks may be canceled – and also impact the US-Iranian talks – after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to step up attacks on Hezbollah forces after right-wing members of his cabinet demanded a full-scale resumption of Israel’s offensive in Lebanon.

In India this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US) meetings to discuss mutual defense issues. While Rubio is there, it is expected acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriquez will travel to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss oil sales, a move strongly supported by the US. Iran is highly dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East and has been struggling to deal with shortages in recent weeks.

We are also watching for a possible visit to North Korea by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi’s security advance team is in Pyongyang now, making arrangements for a visit. Xi is reported to want to help broker better relations among North Korea, the US, and South Korea. But China no longer has the influence it once had over North Korea since the start of the Ukraine War, as North Korea has grown closer to Russia, sending large numbers of soldiers to fight and selling large quantities of munitions. It will be Xi’s first visit to the Hermit Kingdom since 2019.

Here in the Americas, Colombia is holding hotly contested presidential elections next Sunday to replace President Gustavo Petro, who is constitutionally barred from running again. The contest has effectively consolidated into a three-way race between candidates representing sharply divergent visions for the country: Iván Cepeda, who represents the far left and is polling around 44%, Abelardo De la Espriella, who represents the hard right and is polling in the mid 20% range, and Paloma Valencia, who represents the center-right, is floating in the 18 – 21% range in polls.

It is highly likely that a run-off will take place. The critical sub-contest is therefore between De la Espriella and Valencia for the second runoff slot, with conservative voters split between them, and the other ten candidates far behind. A weighted average of recent polls suggests that Cepeda could narrowly lose to Valencia and tie De la Espriella in a runoff scenario.

Also, this week, Pope Leo XIV releases his first encyclical -Magnifica Humanitas – on the use of artificial intelligence (AI). It is expected to warn society of the grave risks of unfettered AI for humanity. According to the New York Times, the Holy Father calls for: government regulation of the private companies that are driving the development of A.I., protection and retraining for workers whose jobs are threatened, education to help students think critically about the technology, action to protect children from violent, hypersexualized or fake information online that is often generated by A.I., and safeguards to ensure that humans, not artificial intelligence, remain responsible for all decisions regarding the use of weapons.

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, the big focus is on inflation reports from the US, the Eurozone, and Japan.

In the US, the April PCE will be released on Thursday. Also out on Thursday is the durable goods orders report. Both reports come after Tuesday’s Conference Board consumer confidence release.

In Asia this week, Japan’s Tokyo CPI print is out on Friday, as are the April industrial production and retail sales reports. China releases industrial profits on Wednesday.

Finally, in Europe this week, May inflation prints are out on Friday for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. All should be good reflective indicators of the economic damage caused so far by the Iran conflict. We will also get the European Central Bank minutes out this week.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Cyprus holds parliamentary elections.

· Italy holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea holds National Assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 25, 2026

Global

· Pope Leo XIV releases his new encyclical on AI – Magnifica Humanitas – warning of the risk of AI to civilization. You can read it HERE.

· The United Nations is closed for the holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Memorial Day, a national holiday. Financial markets and banks are closed.

· Today is Revolution Day in Argentina, a holiday.

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit India through May 26th.

· The United States and Mexico hold their first official round of negotiations as part of a review of their trilateral trade deal with Canada (USMCA).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

· Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

· Paraguay PPI (April)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for a meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang sometime this week (but no official announcement has been made, and the meeting may take place in early June – Reuters and other news services report Chinese security teams and advance teams have been in the North Korean capital preparing for a visit).

· Venezuela’s Interim President Delcy Rodriguez travels to India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The meeting will mostly focus on oil supplies for India.

· Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will visit China through May 28th.

· Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan will visit China through May 26th.

· Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnivirakoul will visit France through May 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (March/ Leading Index (March)/ PPI (April)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Whit Monday, a holiday in most European countries. Most financial markets and banks are closed.

· A delegation of the Security and Defence Committee will travel to Canada to hold policy discussions with officials, political counterparts, and experts, on deepening EU-Canada defense cooperation, including the country’s participation in the SAFE program. MEPs will also discuss Canada's participation in peacekeeping operations, NATO, support for Ukraine, Arctic security, and the supply of critical raw materials.

· The UK Parliament is in recess until June 1.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May)

· Poland Retail Sales (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· EARNINGS: Salvatore Ferragamo, Pharma Mar

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Jordan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Development Bank will hold its annual meeting in the capital of the Republic of the Congo, Brazzaville, from May 29th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Upholding the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter and Strengthening the UN-centered International System. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the session. UN Secretary-General António Guteres will deliver remarks.

· Muslims around the world will observe Eid al-Adha through May 30th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are out of session this week.

· The Texas Republican senate primary run-off is held.

· NASA will hold a press conference to update on its moon base plans and highlight progress towards a sustained presence on the lunar surface.

· Today is Independence Day in Guyana, a national holiday.

· President Trump gets a medical and dental checkup at Walter Reed Hospital in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nicolas Vincent, External Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO).

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (April)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

· EARNINGS: AutoZone, Semtech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India will host the Quad foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi, with the ongoing Iran war expected to figure prominently in discussions. The gathering, to be presided over by Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, is scheduled to be attended by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Marcos begins a four-day visit to Japan. This coincides with the 70th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between Manila and Tokyo. The visit will feature a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, during which the two leaders are expected to upgrade relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership and discuss critical regional issues like maritime security and energy cooperation.

· The MRO Greater China Industry Show begins in Beijing, China. Approximately 200 domestic and international exhibitors will be there, focusing on “operation and maintenance of domestic large aircraft and the digital transformation of civil aviation.”

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Singapore Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (April)

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Japan Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index (March)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Economic Minster Katherina Reiche travels to Beijing, China for meetings. BASF CEO Markus Kamieth will accompany her. BASF recently opened a €9 billion complex in Zhanjiang – BASF’s largest investment ever.

· The EU’s 8th Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Brussels. The meeting will serve to confirm the fulfilment of the interim benchmarks by Albania and to set closing benchmarks for Cluster 1 'Fundamentals', including Chapters 23 - judiciary and fundamental rights, and 24 - justice, freedom and security, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform and economic criteria. The Cluster also includes Chapters 5 – public procurement, 18 – statistics, and 32 - financial control.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the availability and affordability of fertilizers in the EU, following the presentation of the Fertilizer Action Plan by the European Commission.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will start preparations for the June European Council meeting by discussing the annotated draft agenda. The agenda includes a discussion among the European Council on Ukraine, the Middle East, the next multiannual financial framework, overall global economic challenges, common European defense and security issues, and migration.

· The UK Parliament is out of session this week.

· Today is Independence Day in Georgia, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank publishes its Consolidated Financial Statement for the Eurosystem.

· The European Central Bank presents “Financial Stability Review Special Feature: Stress in global private credit and its implications for euro area financial stability.”

· UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (May)/ CBI Distributive Trades (May)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

· Spain PPI (April)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (April)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Finance Magnates Africa Summit, which focuses on trading, takes place in Cape Town.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Global

· The United Nations is closed for an official holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to New York for a two-day set of meeting with institutional investors, CEOs, and other business leaders. While there, he will address the Economic Club of New York on his economic agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy at the Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference, Tokyo, Japan.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on AI, the economy, and the financial system at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) Policy Forum, Stanford, California.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in “Policy Panel Discussion 1: Monetary Policy and Imbalances" before the 2026 Monetary Policy from New Perspectives Conference hosted by the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/22)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/22)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (May/23)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/22)

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)

· EARNINGS: Salesforce, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, National Bank of Canada, Agilent, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Best Buy, EQB, Marvell

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong International Airport opens an expanded Terminal 2, aiming to enhance its competitiveness as a regional hub. The airport says about 15 carriers will operate out of the new facility, flying mostly short-haul and regional routes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference will begin in Tokyo, Japan through May 28th. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers opening remarks.

· South Korea Business Confidence (May)

· Australia Construction Work Done Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (April)/ CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

· Philippines Budget Balance (April)

· Japan BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 62nd European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels. Under the Presidency of Michael Damianos, Minister of Energy, Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Cyprus, representing the Presidency of the Council of the EU. The meeting will be attended by Espen Barth Eide, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway Sabine Monauni, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Environment and Culture of Liechtenstein, and Martin Eyjólfsson, Permanent Secretary of State of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Iceland, as well as by representatives of the European Commission and the European External Action Service. The members of the EEA Council will discuss the overall functioning of the Agreement on the European Economic Area (EEA Agreement) and hold an orientation debate on ‘Ensuring competitiveness and green growth in the Internal Market.”

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers - Gymnich through May 28th in Limassol, Cyprus.

· Members of the European Parliament’s s standing delegation for relations with China will travel to Beijing for the 43rd EU-China interparliamentary meeting with counterparts from the National People’s Congress. This is the first such gathering held in China following the lifting of Chinese sanctions against European lawmakers, political bodies, researchers and organizations.

· UK energy regulator Ofgem announces an update to the energy price cap for the period July 1 to September 30th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)

· France Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/Job Seekers Total (April)

· Italy Industrial Sales (March)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

· Russia Industrial Production (April)

· EARNINGS: Manchester United

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic &Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Healthcare Innovation Summit Africa will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa through May 28th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 28, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Canada through May 30th. This is the first time a Chinese foreign minister will have visited China in 10 years. He will meet with Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand to discuss the recently updated Canada-China Strategic Partnership.

· US Vice President JD Vance speaks at the US Air Force Academy’s commencement ceremony in Colorado.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Canada releases the 2026 Financial Stability Report.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Reykjavík Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University in Reykjavik, Iceland.

· Brazil Bank Lending (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)

· USA Building Permits (April)/ Durable Goods Orders (April)/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Personal Income (April)/ Personal Spending (April)/ Corporate Profits Q1/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Trans (April)/ GDP Price Index 2nd Est Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/23)/ PCE Price Index (April)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/16)/ PCE Prices 2nd Est Q1/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (April)/ GDP Sales 2nd Est Q1/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/23)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (April)/ Real Consumer Spending 2nd Est Q1/ Real Personal Spending (April)/ New Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (May/22)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/27)

· Canada Current Account Q1/ Average Weekly Earnings (March)/ BoC Financial Stability Report

· Columbia Business Confidence (April)

· EARNINGS: Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, CIBC, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, Dollar Tree, NetApp, Gap, BRP

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Humanoid Summit begins in Tokyo, Japan. The global conference is dedicated to humanoid robots and physical artificial intelligence. The two-day event will feature live robot demonstrations and speeches by industry leaders, with participants from companies including Google DeepMind, Boston Dynamics and Toyota Motor.

· Kazakhstan will host a Eurasian Economic Union summit in Astana. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

· A new ferry service is scheduled to connect Taiwan's Keelung, near Taipei, with the picturesque island of Ishigaki in Japan's Okinawa. The first sailing is due to depart late Thursday and arrive around 8 a.m. the next morning. The ferry will initially operate once a week on a trial basis, before expanding to two weekly round trips.

· Azerbaijan celebrates the founding of their democracy today.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/23)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

· New Zealand NZ Business Confidence (May)/ Budget 2026

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q1/ Household Spending (April)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q1/ Private Capital Expenditure Q1

· Thailand New Car Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Finance Ministers of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain will issue a joint statement outlining political compromises aimed at advancing the bloc's Savings and Investments Union. Many observers see the effort as a step toward breaking the political deadlocks preventing the bloc from creating a U.S.-style financial market in a crunch meeting later this month.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the Industrial Accelerator Act: how best to leverage access to the Single Market through European preference and low-carbon requirements. The Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) is a flagship legislative proposal aimed at strengthening European industrial competitiveness with the objective that by 2035 20% of the EU’s GDP should come from the industrial sector. It includes measures such as speeding up permitting, boosting demand for low carbon or "Made in EU" products, and controlling foreign investment. It was adopted by the Commission on March 4, 2026. They will also hold a discussion on the 28th Corporate Legal Framework. They will then move to approve a Council conclusion on “building a sustainable and competitive tourism for the future.” The Council will then move to discuss the impact of the crisis in the Middle East on the EU tourism sector as well as key challenges facing the European Chemical industry.

· The second day of informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers – Gymnich takes places in Limassol, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 28th meeting of Francophone Central Bank Governors in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech followed by Q&A at a public event entitled "Euro Digitale e Sovranità Europea" organized by Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat to discuss the “Monetary Policy from New Perspectives" organized by Bank of Japan and Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies in Tokyo, Japan. Later, he gives a pre-recorded video address to the External Statistics Conference jointly organized by Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, ECB and National Bank of Poland in Krakow, Poland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a public lecture as part of the Selten Salon organized by ECONtribute in Cologne, Germany.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden participates in a fireside chat at the 58th International Capital Market Association annual general meeting and conference in London.

· The European Central Bank account of the last monetary policy meeting is published.

· UK Car Production (April)

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Selling Price Expectations (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

· France PPI (April)

· Spain Retail Sales (April)/ Business Confidence (May)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

· Ireland Retail Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Ethiopia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, May 29, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on South Sudan sanctions, followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee (regarding North Korea).

· G7 Digital Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. hosts "security track" discussions between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Chamber of Commerce Southern New Jersey.

· Brazil Government Budget Value (April)/ Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Net Payrolls (April)

· Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1/ GDP (March)/ GDP (April)/ GDP Implicit Price Q1/ Budget Balance (March)

· USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (April)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (April)/Chicago PMI (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/29)

· Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

· Columbia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Cement Production (April)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shangri-La Dialogue beings in Singapore. Asia's largest annual defense conference will feature U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, while top military generals and admirals and security analysts are expected to discuss global geopolitical tensions and Asia's maritime security. An AUKUS defense ministers meeting involving Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. is also planned on the sidelines of the conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ ANZ Business Confidence (May)

· South Korea Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (May)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Australia Housing Credit (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)

· Singapore Bank Lending (April)/Import/Export Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

· Thailand Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption (April)/ Private Investment (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

· India GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 3rd Est 2025-26/ Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Bank Loan Growth (May/15)/ Deposit Growth (May/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/22)/ M3 Money Supply (May/15)

· EARNINGS: JTB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the legislative measures linked to the 10th framework program for research and innovation 2028-2034, also known as the Horizon Europe package. Horizon Europe is the EU’s key funding program for research and innovation. On 16 July 2025, the European Commission put forward its proposal for the 10th framework program, with a €175 billion budget, as part of the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF). The will also move to adopt a Council recommendation for an EU framework for science diplomacy.

· The Nato Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session begins in Lithuania.

· The foreign ministers of Poland, Estonia and Iceland will meet in Warsaw, Poland after the Council of the Baltic Sea States meeting.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

· Germany Import Prices (April)/ Unemployed Persons (May)/ Unemployment Change (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

· UK Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

· France Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)// Household Consumption (April)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

· Spain Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Current Account (March)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate (May)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Greece PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

· Ukraine Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Budget Balance (April)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 30, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Speech Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Malta holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine L Mann participates on a panel at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference ‘Central bank independence under attack’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Orašac, Croatia

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell gives acceptance remarks at the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene: Panel at the 32nd Dubrovnic Economics Conference ‘Stablecoins and monetary policy’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea holds elections for its National Assembly as well as municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/22/26 Francis Kelly 5/22/26

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Tensions Spike with Drone Strike on UAE Nuclear Plant, Putin Meets Xi in Beijing, Japan’s Prime Minister Travels to South Korea, and Flash Global PMIs to Show Iran War Impact on Global Economy

May 17 - 24, 2026

Markets are still working through the details of President Trump’s visit to Beijing last week for meetings with President Xi Jinping. While expectations for any big breakthroughs on trade or Iran were low going into the meeting, there was hope for other large deals, such as major new agricultural deals and airplane purchases. It often takes a few weeks following summits like this for deals to be finalized as sticky details are still being worked out.

President Trump did tell reporters that China will purchase 200+ Boeing aircraft. However, President Trump has predicted China would purchase 750 planes, Boeing was hoping for 500, and in the end, it appears only 200 are being purchased. However, China has not commented on the matter. And no new major US agricultural purchases were agreed to during the summit, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

But just as President Trump was leaving, it was confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will arrive in Beijing on May 20th for bilateral meetings with President Xi. The meeting is framed around the 25th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation signed by the two countries in 2001.

Putin is also likely to seek progress on long-delayed projects such as Mongolia. Russia remains heavily dependent on Chinese markets and financial channels after years of Western sanctions.

But according to a Russian presidential spokesman, Putin and Xi will "exchange views" on Xi's meeting with Trump, and Moscow hopes to obtain that information "first-hand." But US officials we have spoken with say the broader subtext is that Beijing is visibly balancing between Washington and Moscow — hosting both leaders in quick succession, signaling China's intent to remain indispensable to both sides, particularly as Ukraine negotiations and the US-Iran conflict create competing pressures on the global order.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will travel to South Korea this week for meetings with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. The visit is part of an effort to strengthen previously tense relations between the two nations while also building mutual security and economic ties in the face of growing Chinese maritime aggression. This is likely to include signing an agreement to share weapons, ammunition, and jet fuel during “times of emergency.”

The two leaders will almost surely discuss growing concerns about the situation in Iran and the serious disruption it is causing to oil and gas imports, as well as helium imports, a critical component in the construction of semiconductors.

Meanwhile, the Iranian situation has become significantly more complicated and worrisome this weekend when three drones – presumably Iranian – reportedly hit the perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Plant in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The plant is the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world and supplies approximately 25 percent of the USA’s electricity needs. The highly provocative act ratchets up even further tensions and frustrations with Iran and will almost force President Trump and the UAE to respond militarily – especially as President Trump has already called the ceasefire “on life support”.

Here in the Western Hemisphere, the EU-Mexico Summit will take place in Mexico City. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will sign two landmark agreements: The Modernized Global Agreement (MGA) – a comprehensive political/economic partnership agreement, and the Interim Trade Agreement (ITA), which has been given preliminary approval by all 27 EU member states earlier this month. The ITA is expected to improve bilateral trade by 35% over the next five years, with a heavy focus on pharmaceuticals, automotive production, agri-food, and advanced manufacturing.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, this is Kevin Warsh’s first week as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. The Fed will release the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, and they are expected to show growing concern about inflationary pressures, mostly due to the Iran War. And watch for signs of growing Fed sentiment to raise rates later this year.

In terms of major economic reports this week, in the US, new residential construction data and pending home sales are out on Tuesday. On Thursday, initial jobless claims are released, and on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment is released. The whole week will be busy with corporate earnings, including Nvidia, Target, Lowe’s, Intuit, Walmart, Deere & Co, and Target.

In Europe this week, the UK reports labor market figures on Tuesday and April inflation data on Wednesday. We will also see flash PMIs for the UK, Germany, and France on Thursday. And Germany releases the Ifo Survey on Friday.

In Asia, Japan releases several major data reports, including Q1 GDP on Tuesday and April CPI on Friday. China releases industrial production, retail sales, and residential and commercial real estate property prices on Tuesday. And South Korea is set to release the April PPI on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Global

· The UN World Urban Forum begins in Baku, Azerbaijan and runs through May 22nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Washington, D.C., the National Jubilee of Prayer gathering of Christians on the National Mall will take place. This is a part of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

· Cuba holds municipal primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The extended Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will expire at midnight.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Cabo Verde holds legislative elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 18, 2026

Global

· G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Paris, France through May 19th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Victory Day in Canada, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed.

· U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Kenneth Howery and special envoy to Greenland Jeff Landry will travel to Nuuk, Greenland, through May 20 to participate in the Future Greenland Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks at the Dell Technologies World Annual Convention in Las Vegas, Nevada.

· Interim Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Cheryl Venable gives welcome remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking".

· Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (May)/IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Current Account Q1/GDP Growth Rate Q1

· USA NY Fed Services Activity Index (May)/NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippine senate convenes for the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The trial centers on charges including bribery, corruption and a high-profile threat against the president's life. Convicting the vice president requires at least a two-thirds majority.

· The Australian Energy Producers Conference is held in Adelaide through May 21st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (April)/Services NZ PSI (April)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (April)/Non-Oil Exports (April

· China House Price Index (April)/Industrial Production (April)/Retail Sales (April)/Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

· EARNINGS: Baidu, Nidec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discussion he Council will discuss the future of the EU’s external action taking into consideration shifting geopolitical and geoeconomic contexts. Discussions will focus on how development cooperation can promote sustainable development in partner countries while advancing the EU’s strategic interests, as well as explore ways to strengthen the EU’s global role as a reliable partner. Ministers will also exchange views on the role of the Global Gateway strategy in the EU’s external action. The strategy mobilizes public and private resources to support sustainable investments in key sectors worldwide.

· The UK’s Labour lawmakers will gather for the first time in the wake of the May 7 local electoral losses and Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation.

· The European Parliament Plenary is held in Strasbourg through May 21st. Key files on the agenda: a new law to improve the protection of EU strategic sectors from risky foreign investments, a debate/resolution on rule of law, fundamental rights and misuse of EU funds in Slovakia, new legislation on protection of victims of crimes, the gender care gap, and legislation to mitigate global steel overcapacity on the EU market. President Metsola will also confer the inaugural European Order of Merit during a ceremony in the hemicycle, marking the 75th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration. Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan is scheduled to address plenary ahead of Armenia's 7 June elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Paulo Cipollone participate in theG7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at the 3rd Sustainability Standards Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at a conference "Research and Market Perspectives on the Evolving Bank Supervisory and Regulatory Landscape" organized by European University Institute/Bank Policy Institute in San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy.

· The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Euro Area Business Cycle Network cohost the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Martin Kocher, ECB board member and governor of the Austrian National Bank, and his Hungarian counterparty Mihaly Varga, speak in Budapest, Hungary.

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene participates on a panel discussion at the Financial Times Business of Luxury Summit in London.

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Committee Catherine Mann participates on a panel at the Lamfulussy Conference in Budapest, Hungary.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability Nathanael Benjamin speaks at the University of Glasglow Adam Smith Business School.

· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Flash Q1

· Italy Balance of Trade (March)

· Romania Current Account (March)

· Poland Inflation Rate (April)

· Belarus Industrial Production (April)

· Russia Current Account Q1

· EARNINGS: Ryanair, Sonova

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks at the Samson International Smart Mobility Summit in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

· Jordon Industrial Production (March)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress party will hold primary elections to select candidates for the Senate in the country's 2027 general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Global

· G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Paris.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates in a policy panel at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks before a dinner at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking.”

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank First Vice President Cheryl Venable gives closing remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking."

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook (May/16)/Pending Home Sales (April)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/15)/Fed Venable Speech

· Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ New Housing Price Index (April)/Building Permits (March)/CPI Common (April)/CPI Median (April)/CPI Trimmed-Mean (April)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

· Columbia Imports/Balance of Trade (March)

· EARNINGS: Home Depot, Toll Brothers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Andong, South Korea, through May 20th. Takaichi is expected to discuss energy security cooperation amid disruptions to crude oil supplies caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, which has spilled over to the wider Middle East region. The two leaders are also expected to discuss beefing up critical mineral supply chains. The meeting is likely to take place in Andong, Lee's hometown in southeastern South Korea. This would be part of so-called shuttle diplomacy or mutually visits by Japanese and South Korean leaders to each other's country — Lee visited Takaichi's home prefecture of Nara in January, so this is the reciprocal leg. The hometown symbolism is deliberate Japan-South Korea relationship-building optics.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attends the third India-Nordic summit in Oslo and meets his Norwegian counterpart Jonas Gahr Store as well as leaders from Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden. Following two earlier summits held in Stockholm in 2018 and in Copenhagen in 2022, the visit will focus on areas including technology, renewable energy, defense and cooperation in the Arctic. He will then travel to Rome, Italy for meetings with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Bloomberg Forum for Investment Managers in Sydney.

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/PPI Input/Output Q1

· Japan GDP Growth Rate Q1/GDP Growth Annualized Q1/GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/GDP External Demand Q1/GDP Price Index Q1/GDP Private Consumption Q1/Capacity Utilization (March)/Industrial Production (March)/Tertiary Industry Index (March)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (May)/Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/RBA Meeting Minutes

· China FDI (YTD) (April)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/M3 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Negotiators from EU member states, the European Commission and the European Parliament will hold another round of interinstitutional talks on legislation to implement the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement.

· NATO Chiefs of Defense Military Committee, NATO’s highest military authority, meets in Brussels.

· The Mediterranean Forum takes place in Athens, Greece through May 21st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel discussion at The International Research Forum on Monetary Policy 2026 organized by the Euro Area Business Cycle Network, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Board in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote address at the AFME’s European Financial Integration Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· AFME’s European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt. Speakers include ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives speech at the City Week Conference entitled “The Future of Money in the Digital World: A Central Banker’s Perspective” in London.

· Belarus GDP (April)

· UK Unemployment Rate (March)/Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (March)/Employment Change (March)/Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (March)/Claimant Count Change (April)/HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/Labor Productivity Q1

· Spain Balance of Trade (March)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

· EARNINGS: Shell, Euronext, DCC, Diploma

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Turkey Auto Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Global

· G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Paris, France.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Protection of Civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

· Political/Social Events –

· Primary elections are held in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on “Consumer Financial Health Metrics” at the Financial Health Network’s (FHN) EMERGE Financial Health 2026 Conference, Atlanta, Georgia.

· Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes released.

· Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speaks on economic outlook at the Atlanta Fed’s 2026 Financial Markets Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/MBA Mortgage Applications (May/15)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/15)/MBA Purchase Index (May/15)/EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (May/15)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

· EARNINGS: Nvidia, Analog Devices, Intuit, Lowe’s, Target

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The talks are likely to focus on energy cooperation, sanctions-resistant payment systems, and broader coordination within multilateral groupings such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The visit is also expected to renew the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship signed in 2001. The timing is deliberately choreographed against Trump's just-concluded Beijing trip, positioning Xi as the central diplomatic broker.

· Taiwanese President William Lai will give a speech marking the anniversary of his inauguration that could spur Chinese military drills.

· The Sohn Hong Kong Investment Leaders Conference begins in Hong Kong. Recognized as one of the most sought-after gatherings in the region, the Sohn Hong Kong Conference brings together Asia's brightest investment minds, offering attendees unparalleled insights into markets and investment strategies.

· The DealStreetAsia Asia PE Leadership Summit is being held in Hong Kong. This is DealStreetAsia’s first conference in Asia and focused on PE/VC capital allocation amid the China deleveraging and US-China decoupling backdrop.

· Today is Independence Day in East Timor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/19)

· Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/Deposit Facility Rate (May)/Lending Facility Rate (May)/Loan Growth (April)

· Taiwan Export Orders (April)/Current Account Q1

· India Infrastructure Output (April)

· EARNINGS: Tokio Marine, Sompo Japan Nip, MS&AD Insurance

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Emmanuel Moulin, nominee for Bank of France governor, appears before the Senate Finance Committee in Paris, France.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will appear before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee to answer questions about the economy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey speaks at the Bloomberg Global Markets & Banking Summit in London.

· Germany PPI (April)

· UK Inflation Rate (April)/PPI Input/Output (April)/Retail Price Index (April)

· Hungary Gross Wage (March)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Inflation Rate (April)/CPI (April)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (May)

· Italy Construction Output (March)

· Russia PPI (April)

· EARNINGS: Marks & Spencer, Keller, Severn Trent, British Land,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Government Debt (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The ICT4D Conference 2026 begins in Nairobi, Kenya and runs through May 22.

· Today is Republic Day in Cameroon, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/Retail Sales (March)

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federa; Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin speaks on the economy to the Urban Land Institute Triangle in Wilmington, North Carolina.

· Mexico Retail Sales (March)/Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Building Permits (April)/Housing Starts (April)/Initial Jobless Claims (May/16)/Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/Continuing Jobless Claims (May/09)/Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/16)/Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/Philly Fed Employment (May)/Philly Fed New Orders (May)/Philly Fed Prices Paid (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/15)/Kansas Fed Composite Index (May)/Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/21)/30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/21)/Fed Balance Sheet (May/20)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/Economic Activity (March)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

· Peru Current Account Q1

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

· EARNINGS: Walmart, John Deere, Ross stores, Zoom, CAE

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Samsung Electronics unionists vow to go for an all-out strike in their pursuit of 15% of the company's operating profit for employee bonuses. Management is fighting back and worries that it could weaken the company's competitiveness and cause a shareholder backlash. Samsung's labor dispute sparked national debate on how to distribute profits in the semiconductor industry -- one senior government official suggested paying a dividend to the public with tax revenue from Samsung and its rival SK Hynix.

· JPMorgan’s Global China Summit takes place in Shanghai, with CEO Jamie Dimon set to attend. Through May 22nd.

· In Hong Kong, the annual Cheung Chau Bun Festival begins, peaking with the Piu Sik Parade on Sunday, followed by the Bun Scrambling Final next Monday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Committee Junko Koeda gives a speech to local business leaders in Fukuoka, Japan.

· South Korea PPI (April)

· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/Credit Card Spending (April)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/Employment Change (April)/Full Time Employment Change (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)/Part Time Employment Change (April)/Participation Rate (April)

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/Machinery Orders (March)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/16)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)

· India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (May)/HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/HSBC Services PMI Flash (May)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

· South Africa Building Permits (March)/Consumer Confidence (May)

· EARNINGS: Lenova, Singapore Telecommunications

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Helsingborg, Sweden through May 22nd. The agenda will center on increased defense spending, more defense production, and maintaining strong support for Ukraine. On the sidelines, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to discuss Nordic defense issues.

· The Transport Research Arena Conference in Budapest, Hungary.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a lecture at University of Oxford in Oxford, UK.

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor speaks virtually at the MNI Connect event in London.

· Slovakia Current Account (March)/Unemployment Rate (April)

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

· France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/Employment Growth (April)/Industrial Production (April)/PPI (April)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/Current Account (March)/Current Account s.a (March)/Construction Output (March)/Labor Cost Index Flash Q1/Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

· Italy Current Account (March)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)/PPI (April)

· United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)

· EARNINGS: BT, Swiss Life, Tate & Lyle, Nationwide Building Society

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 22, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Centre for Central Banking Guest Lecture in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Argentina Leading Indicator (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

• Mexico Economic Activity (March)/Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

• USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)/ CB Leading Index (April)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (May)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)/ Michigan Current Conditions (May)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May)/22/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/22)

• Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

• EARNINGS: Booz Allen, BJ’s Wholesale

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· APEC Trade Ministers meet in Suzhou, China through May 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

· New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

· Japan Inflation Rate (April)/Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (April)

· Indonesia Current Account Q1/M2 Money Supply (April)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

· India Bank Loan Growth (May/15)/ Deposit Growth (May/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/15)/ M3 Money Supply (May/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Lefkosia, Cyprus. Leaders will discuss macroeconomic developments in the Euro area, Euro area competitiveness, and the digital Euro.

· The 8th EU-Mexico Summit takes place in Mexico City, Mexico. António Costa, President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will be meeting Claudia Sheinbaum, President of Mexico. They will be discussing an EU-Mexico Trade Agreement, and a number of joint cooperative priorities including the fight against organized crime, climate action and environmental protection, advancing energy security and the energy transition

research and innovation and people-to-people contacts and academic exchanges

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. Ministers will EU trade ministers will receive an update on economic security, with a particular focus on the impact of the conflict in Middle East on trade. The ongoing hostilities in the region have generated significant trade disruptions worldwide, and ministers will address the short- and long-term consequences.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Brussels through May 23.

· The CIS Heads of Government meeting takes place in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will speak at a the Eurogroup press conference in Cyprus.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the opening address at the 2026 Asian Monetary Policy Forum (AMPF) in Singapore.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Boris Vujcic, Peter Kazimir and Madis Muller speak at a financial literacy roundtable in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (April)

· Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q1, Wholesale Prices (April)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (March)

· Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUN/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

· France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)

· Poland Business Confidence (May)

· Greece Current Account (March)/ Current Account (February)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (April)

· EARNINGS: Richemont

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/15), Balance of Trade (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Imports/Exports (April)/ Financial Stability Report

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