The Global Week Ahead

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Begin Again, The BRICS Leaders’ Summit Gets Underway, the 81st UN General Assembly Starts with World Leaders Set to Arrive, and Markets Are Focused on ECB Rates and the U.S. PCE Report

September 6 - 13, 2026

After months of little diplomatic movement, it appears that efforts to find a peaceful end to the Russian War on Ukraine have begun again.  U.S. Special Envoys Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff spent three hours with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday before flying to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.  This is the first time Kushner and Witkoff have traveled to Kyiv for meetings.   While all sides said the meetings have gone “well,” there are few details emerging yet as to what is being discussed as possible outlines of a deal. 

However, Putin did inform Kushner and Witkoff that the battlefield situation is “difficult” but claimed Russian military forces are making “real progress” on the battlefield (which, by many accounts, is contrary to the facts on the ground).  The meeting comes after the recent surprise visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow.  We would also note it comes following a report in The Economist of Putin telling aides “they will hang me” if he fails to win control of the Donbas and wins the war.  While he did not specify, “they” is most likely a reference to his far-right/ultranationalist base.  According to recent polls, public sentiment in Russia is increasingly tense and souring on the war in the wake of growing Ukrainian drone attacks and a distinct lack of confidence in the country’s long-term future.

In the Americas this week, Canada begins its dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on Tuesday. They will hit a number of U.S. products with a range of 15% to 50%.  And the U.S. Congress is out for the Labor Day holiday.

Also this week, the BRICS Leaders’ Summit gets underway in New Delhi, India.  The agenda is packed, with talks likely to focus on harnessing greater cooperation among the Global South, trade, energy cooperation, and climate issues.  What will be particularly interesting is an expected sideline meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.  Modi is keen to become more engaged in helping to find a solution to the ongoing Iran War to avoid damaging the Indian economy.  So far, India has been able to defy expectations that the war would damage the economy, reporting last week 7.8% growth between April and June, comfortably beating most forecasts; however, concerns over the spiking costs of diesel oil, natural gas, and fertilizers are worrying leaders in New Delhi.

In Europe, leaders this week will be trying to digest the implications of the German far-right AfD victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections.  Exit polls suggest the AfD won as much as 44.4% of the vote, with the right-of-center CDU winning 18.4% and the far-left Die Linke Party coming in with 9.3%.  Of particular note: voter participation was at a record high of 76.5%.  There are two more state elections in September in Germany, and the AfD is, so far, polling well in both those races.

 Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big focus of markets will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on rates on Thursday and U.S. PPI and CPI prints.

Despite it being a short week in the U.S. (Monday being the Labor Day holiday), it is going to be a big week for economic reports.  The August PPI is out on Thursday and the August CPI – which is closely watched by the Fed – is out on Friday.  Following Friday’s blowout jobs report, worries over persistent inflation, and rising energy costs (especially with diesel prices now over $6 a gallon and rising), the Federal Reserve is under growing pressure to raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meetings.  Amplifying his pressure campaign against the Fed, President Trump is now demanding the Fed cut rates, and if it does not, he is threatening to stop trading with any nation that has a deficit with the U.S.

Also this week in the U.S., the University of Michigan survey for September is out on Friday. And, notably, the U.S. Treasury begins its expanded long-end liquidity-support buybacks Wednesday.

As noted above, the ECB announces its decision on rates on Thursday, and the consensus is they impose a 25-basis-point hike, bringing the rate to 2.50%.  Also in Europe this week, Germany releases industrial production numbers on Monday, and its trade balance on Tuesday.  The UK releases its July GDP on Friday. 

In Asia this week,  China releases trade balance figures on Tuesday and its CPI and PPI on Wednesday.  Japan releases the August Economy Watchers Survey on Tuesday along with July labor cash earnings.  And on Friday, we will see Japan’s PPI print.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, September 6, 2026

 Global

·       OPEC+ meets virtually to review market conditions.

·       The 3rd BRICS Sherpa/Sous-Sherpas’ meeting takes place in New Delhi, India through September 9th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican Foreign Secretary Roberto Velasco Álvarez is in China for a two-day set of meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's inv. He will then travel on to Chongqing to open a new Mexican consulate. One of the major issues being discussed is China’s role near-shoring in Mexico as part of the ongoing USMCA negotiations with the US and Canada.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt state hold elections for the state parliament and local district councils.  This election is attracting international attention as the far-right AfD Party is leading in the polls and have a good shot at winning.  If that happens, most observers believe it will likely give the AfD significant momentum for future national elections.

·       In London, Jamaican officials visit to lodge an unprecedented legal complaint calling for reparations for slavery.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 8th in Dublin, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Swaziland, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 7, 2026

Global

·       In The Hague, the International Court of Justice will hold public hearings September 7-10 on the preliminary objections raised by Germany in the case concerning Alleged Breaches of Certain International Obligations in respect of the Occupied Palestinian Territory.  The charges were brought by Nicaragua.

·       The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will hold meetings through September 11th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       It is Labor Day in Canada and the U.S. All financial markets and banks are closed.

·       Ukrainian President Zelensky travels to Toronto for meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

·       Mexican Foreign Minister Alvaraz will travel to China for meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Secretary General To Lam travels to Moscow for meetings with President Vladimir Putin through September 9th.  They are expected to discuss energy, defense, security, and bilateral cooperation issues.  The Secretary General then travels on to Paris for meetings with President Emmanuel Macron and then on to New York to attend the UN General Assembly.

·       The U.S.-Korea-Japan joint military exercise “Freedom Edge” begins off the coast of South Korea and runs through September 13th.  The exercises are being held despite North Korea vowing to retaliate against U.S. hostilities and condemning the exercises. 

·       The Seoul Defense Dialogue begins in Seoul, South Korea and runs through September 9th.   The event is hosted by the Ministry of National Defense.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The EU/UK/Ukraine New High-Level Group on Defense is expected to hold its first meeting in Brussels.  Created last week by the EU Chief Diplomat, Kaja Kallas, it is comprised of former political and military leaders to advise on how to better defend each entity in the face of growing Russian hostilities.

French President Emmanuel Macron and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will co-host Lumiere Summit in Paris.  The event  is expected to bring together about 150 participants from more than 30 countries, including representatives from the film, audiovisual and video game industries.  Lee will then spend three more days in consultation with Macron on trade and mutual security issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Industrial Production (July)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

·       UK Lloyds House Price Index / BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (July)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Final Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       EARNINGS: Ashmore, Burkhalter, Gamma Communications, Sigma Roc, Standard Life

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

 Global

·       The 81st UN General Assembly begins in New York.

·       In Geneva, the Outer Space Security Conference 2026, organized by the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), will take place at the Palais des Nations through September 9th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. come into effect.  The tariffs range in size from 15% to 50%, matching President Trump’s recently enacted tariffs dollar for dollar.  A full list of U.S. products subject to the counter tariffs can be found HERE.

·       Jury selection is due to begin in a New York court as Chinese telecommunications equipment giant Huawei faces a trial for alleged evasion of U.S. sanctions against Iran, intellectual property theft and other accusations. The company has pleaded not guilty in the case, which shook China's relations with both the U.S. and Canada.

·       New Hampshire holds primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook  (September/05)/ Used Car Prices (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July)

·       EARNINGS: ABM Industries, Braze

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (September)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July)/ RBA Hunter Speech/ RBA Hauser Speech         

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin, Germany.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak before Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee on the August Monetary Policy Report.

·       UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)/ Chancellor John Healey Speech

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

·       EARNINGS: Computacenter, Dunelm, Funding Circle, James Fisher and Sons, Rubis, Theon, Uniphar

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Global

·       The 2nd BRICS meeting of Finance and Central Bank Governors meets in Mumbai, India.

·       The World Nuclear Symposium begins in London and runs through September 11th.

·       The International Space Summit, hosted by the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, begins in Paris. The event is expected to bring together a large group of politicians, policy experts, scientists and astronauts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republican Midterm Convention opens in Dallas, Texas.  Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to speak.

·       Rhode Island holds a primary election.

·       Apple hosts an event unveiling the latest iPhone.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Peter Routledge, Canada’s Superintendent of Financial Institutions, is speaking at the Scotia Bank Summit on September 9th and at the Economic Club of Canada on September 11th.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (September/04)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/04)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (September/04)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/04)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/04)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       El Salvador PPI (August)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (July)

·       EARNINGS: U.S. – American Eagle Outfitters, Chewy, Cooper Companies, Signet Jewelers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 11th Belt and Road Summit begins in Hong Kong and runs through September 10th.

·       The Manila Strategy Forum 2026 begins in Manila, the Philippines and runs through September 10th.  It is co-hosted by the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Amador Research Services.

·       Hong Kong hosts BIOHK2026, a major four-day biotech conference. Speakers and exhibitors from around the world are due to showcase cutting-edge research and discuss policy trends and industrialization opportunities. The event comes as China's fast-growing biotech industry is increasingly in the spotlight.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchase/ Machine Tool Orders (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

·       Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Norway holds a funeral for King Harald V in the Oslo Cathedral.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council begins meetings on interest rates at the Deutsche Bundesbank in Berlin, Germany.  ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a speech at an official dinner that evening.

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July)

·       France Industrial Production (July)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

·       Greece Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (August)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Global

·       The BRICS Business Council Annual meeting takes place in New Delhi, India.

·       The Speakers of  G7 Parliaments meeting begins in Paris and runs through September 12th.

·       OPEC Monthly Oil Production Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will speak at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas.

·       Bloomberg hosts its Power Players Conference in New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA PPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/05)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/29)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/05)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (August)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Natural Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (September/04)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (September/10)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/10)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/09)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: U.S. – Adobe, Macy’s, Oracle

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China hosts meeting of APEC Energy Ministerial meeting in Beijing.

·       The inaugural Luzern Economic Corridor (LEC) Investment Forum begins in Manila, the Philippines.  The event brings more than 600 investors, industry leaders, and senior government officials and is co-hosted by the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S.

·       The Ho Chi Minh City Friendship Dialogue  2026 (FD -2026) begins in Ho Chi Minh  City and runs through September 12th.  The event brings together more than 500 investors looking at investments in technology, manufacturing, and human resource development.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Kazuyuki Masu speaks to local business leaders in Fukui, Japan.

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/05)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (August)

·       Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (September)/ Overnight Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/04)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

The Riga Conference 2026 begins Riga, Latvia and runs through September 11th. The conference brings together regional and international foreign policy and defense experts, academics, journalists, and business leaders to discuss and assess the key challenges facing the transatlantic community.  Russia’s increasing hybrid warfare against Europe is expected to be a main topic of the event.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council concludes the 2nd day of meetings on interest rates.  There will be a press conference with President Lagarde following the announcement of the decision on rates.

·       The Bundesbank hosts the 21st Central Bank Conference on the Microstructure of Financial Markets through September 11th  in Eltville am Rhein, Germany.

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (August)/ New Conventional Gilt 2030

·       Germany Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate Final (August)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July)

·       Spain Industrial Production (July)

·       Italy Industrial Production (July)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

·       Greece Industrial Production (July)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ ECB Marginal Lending Rate

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

·       EARNINGS: Associated British Foods, Currys, Fevertree Drinks, Genus, John Lwis Partnership, Playtech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

Friday, September 11, 2026

Global

·       The International Energy Administration’s Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

·       France hosts G7 Parliamentary Speakers Summit 2026 in Paris. The event brings the Speakers of each G7 Parliament together to discuss “multilateral dialogue, democratic resilience, and global legislative cooperation.”

·       Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year, begins this evening.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of the al-Qaida attacks on New York City and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July)

·       USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ CPI s.a (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (September)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (September/11)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)

·       EARNINGS: Kroger (U.S.)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ PPI (August)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Turkey Current Account (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/04)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (August)

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage interview at the Banque Populaire Caisse d’Epargne Group Executive Summer University.  Later, she will attend an event at Fête de la Pomme in Épreville-en-Lieuvin, France.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane delivers the Richard Cantillon lecture at the 49th Dublin Economics Workshop Annual Economic Policy Conference 2026 in Wexford, Ireland.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August)

·       UK GDP (July)/ GDP 3-Month Avg (July)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Germany Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 12, 2026

Global

·       The 18th BRICS Summit takes place in New Delhi, India through September 13th.   The theme of the meeting is “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is scheduled to travel to Ireland for meetings with Irish President, Catherine Connolly.  He will also hold bilateral meetings with the Taoiseach Michael Martin before traveling to the Trump golf course in Doonbeg, County Clare.  Ireland is holding the Presidency of Council of the European Union through the end of 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Voting for the Okinawa gubernatorial election will take place. The race is between the incumbent governor, Denny Tamaki, who is backed by the opposition parties, and a challenger supported by parties including the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The crucial election will influence the direction of the relocation of a U.S. military base within the prefecture.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Trade Unions Congress (TUC) begins in Brighton and runs through September 16th.   TUC brings together 47 member unions to discuss policy and advocacy positions, important to the ruling Labour Party agenda.

·       Sweden holds parliamentary elections.  All 349 members of the Riksdag are up for election.

·       The EU Arctic Summit begins in Rovaniemi, Finland.  Hosted by Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, the event runs through September 14th and brings together an invited group of EU leaders to discuss a common strategic approach to the Arctic region “as its geopolitical significance continues to grow rapidly.”  The Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs along Russia’s Arctic coast, has seen a significant spike  (more than a 40% increase year over year) in commercial shipping through the area with the melting and breaking up of parts of the Arctic cap. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

·       September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

·       September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

·       September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

·       September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

·       September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

·       October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

·       October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

·       October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

·       October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.  There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

·       October 11 – 13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

·       October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       November 3: The U.S. Midterm election is to be held.  All 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, 1/3 of the U.S. Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

·       November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

·       November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

·       December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

·       December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

·       January 18 – 22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

·       April 12 – 18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

International Economy Magazine:

Is France In Trouble?

was honored to recently be asked to contribute to a symposium of distinguished economists and geopolitical analysts commenting on the state of affairs in France. It has just been published in the Summer edition. The question posed to us was: What happens to the French economy—now struggling with high levels of both public and corporate debt—if the European Central Bank follows its narrow mandate and raises short-term interest rates in an attempt to hit a 2 percent inflation target? The ECB could face a situation where securing the state’s solvency takes priority over fighting inflation, forcing the central bank to monetize public debt.

My response is a simple but resounding yes. France’s current economic outlook is both complex and worrisome, compounded by simmering and seemingly intractable political tensions. With an anemic 0.8 percent growth forecast and non-financial corporate debt near 155 percent of GDP, France is truly the sick man of Europe.

You can read my full piece, along with the superb contributions of others, by going to the latest edition of International Economy Magazine HERE (the paywall is down).

Recommended Weekend Reads

Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets?  China’s Great Power Vision Comes Into Focus, Bearing the Cost of the Global Trade Rebalancing, and  How Merkel and Merz Lost East Germany

September 4 -6, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.

The Great Rebalancing

• Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets? Federal Reserve of New York’s Liberty Street Economics

  The fall of the dollar’s share of global official foreign exchange reserves is sometimes read as evidence that the dollar’s role in international financial markets is eroding. However, the authors show that the aggregate decline is not a systematic global shift away from dollar assets. Rather, the aggregate decline reflects the actions of a handful of large reserve holders, changing both their currency preferences and the size of their reserve portfolio.

• The Great Rebalancing: Who Will Bear the Costs of a Global Trade Adjustment? Michael Pettis/Foreign Affairs

  The eurozone is the world’s third-largest economy and its second-largest source of demand; it has economic power at its disposal, but [likely not] the political ability to exercise this power, given its fragmented policymaking institutions and the often divergent interests of its member states. If the United States is able to reduce its trade deficit and expand its share of global manufacturing while China resists an equivalent contraction in its surpluses, a politically divided Europe could be forced to take on larger deficits almost by default. The costs could include deindustrialization, rising debt, and weaker growth. This process may have begun already.

China

• China’s Great Power Vision Comes into Focus Ryan Hass/China Leadership Monitor

  History may record the 2020s as the period during which China’s vision for updating the international political order came into focus. Chinese leaders and experts have laid their cards on the table, arguing that the era of “hegemonic politics” needs to be replaced by a new order that redistributes power away from its concentration in liberal democracies toward a more equal distribution among states, while protecting the inviolability of sovereign states to govern their populations as they see fit. Beijing views America as declining but dangerous. Rather than confront the United States in a contest for leadership, China is content to patiently accumulate power and influence until such time as the country becomes broadly recognized as leader of a new political order. Such an outcome is possible but not preordained. A core tension is whether China will match its expansive vision with a willingness to pay the costs of leadership. Rhetoric without the backing of economic resources is an expression of ambition, not a plan for realizing it.

• Lost in Translation: Decoding Chinese Strategic Narrative Series - Turning the tide: China seeks to set the rules at sea Brookings Institution

  China’s thought leaders see a window of opportunity to advance China’s maritime interests and assert greater leadership over international law of the sea on both a regional and a global basis. China’s legal activism is being paired with its increased operational maritime activism, especially in the South China Sea. But if China’s campaign is to be successful, China’s leaders will need to articulate a vision of international maritime law that is consistent, fair, and repeatable by other countries.

• How Does the World Really View China? Adam Liu/Foreign Affairs

  In July, the Pew Research Center found that for the first time in roughly two decades of global polling, the world now views China more favorably than the United States. The sentiment was not universal, but in 25 of the 36 countries surveyed this year, the percentage of respondents who gave favorable marks to China exceeded that for the United States, including several close U.S. allies. Some analysts have taken these findings as confirmation that the golden era of American soft power is over and China is ascendant. According to them, Trump’s policies on tariffs, aid, and allies have eroded the United States’ standing, opening the door for people across the world to switch their allegiance to China. But this interpretation, convenient as it may be, deserves more scrutiny. A closer examination of the data reveals that although global opinion of the United States has indeed plummeted and opinion of China has risen since 2022, most of the world still prefers the United States as an economic partner—including most of the countries that now view China in a more positive light. This is a critical distinction, since economic partnerships and interests tend to drive national policies. Indeed, it signals something more nuanced is happening than simply the end of American hegemony and an imminent age of Chinese global supremacy.

Europe’s Future and Germany’s Seminal Elections

• How Merkel and Merz lost eastern Germany to the AfD PoliticoEU

  East Germany formally dissolved in 1990, but it did not disappear. Its struggles for identity within the sprawling German federal system, with power concentrated in Berlin, have fueled the ascent of the far right. If the AfD does secure an outright victory this weekend, it will raise profound questions about how chancellors such as Helmut Kohl, Angela Merkel and Friedrich Merz failed to manage the post-unification transition and prevent large parts of the east from veering off on a political trajectory toward the far right.

• What’s at stake for the AfD and Merz in Germany’s three September elections The Atlantic Council

  State elections this month in Germany will almost certainly weaken Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s federal coalition and raise new obstacles to his promised reforms. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and his coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) are facing significant losses in the three state elections. Meanwhile, the most consequential state election comes first: in Sachsen-Anhalt, the right-wing nativist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is within reach of a parliamentary majority.German voters go to the polls in Sachsen-Anhalt on September 6, with elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (also in eastern Germany) two weeks later. An AfD parliamentary majority in Sachsen-Anhalt would almost certainly consume German politics for the coming months and fuel existing speculation that Merz’s chancellorship is in danger.

• Europe’s Self-Confidence Problem Carnegie Europe

  Many European leaders are still not playing in the geopolitical big league. Just look at their subpar responses to the mass influx of migrants from Morocco to the Spanish exclave of Ceuta in July and to Russia’s attempted armed drone attack on a Romanian gas project in August. The sustained unconventional warfare being waged against the EU underscores a core paradox. Brussels and individual EU members are targets both because they are seen as acting resolutely in defense of their interests and way of life and because they are seen as vulnerable and eschewing confrontation. Two fears cripple Europe’s responses and undercut some of the unprecedented military and financial moves it has made: the appeal of the far right for a rising portion of voters and the need to confront a major power. Both are stoked by vast swaths of the media that lean into populist clickbait instead of equipping voters with the necessary strategic context to mount a defense.

Life With AI

• Job postings show early signs of AI automation impact Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

  Texas firms are increasingly integrating generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) into their business processes. Two-thirds of firms surveyed in the May 2026 Texas Business Outlook Survey reported using AI, up from 40 percent two years prior. The rapid adoption of GenAI tools, which iteratively refine their capabilities based on tasks assigned, raises concerns of labor market disruption as the new technology automates work humans previously performed. While it increases worker productivity, it may also reduce the demand for certain types of labor. A new analysis, using data from millions of online job postings, shows GenAI is reshaping labor demand in Texas. We measure the exposure of individual occupations to automation based on observed capabilities of GenAI tools to perform particular tasks.

• The AI Re-Acceleration That Wasn’t Paul Kedrosky’s Applied Complexity Substack

  Kedrosky argues AI capabilities continue to improve, but “the full composite data shows flattening relative gains, not acceleration…rolling relative model gains have fallen from their 2024 peak, while model dispersion has narrowed sharply. In short, the maths shows there is no model acceleration, contrary to claims, and as expected. The result comes from selecting frontier observations only, choosing a breakpoint, ignoring variance collapse, and fitting separate lines on either side.

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

August 31 - September 4, 2026

Washington Begins Wandering Back to Work, G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Heads Gather in North Carolina, and the NCUA Has a New Chair

Labor Day – the traditional “end of summer” – is still a week away, but Washington is slowly getting back to work. Very slowly.

First, the House of Representatives is in session this week, but only for four days.  They go back out of session Thursday for the Labor Day week.  The Senate remains out of session and is scheduled to come back September 14th.

Nevertheless, the House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing this week entitled “Strengthening the American Economy: Promoting Growth, Opportunity, and Prosperity.”  Among those testifying will be New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Mark and Circle President Heath Talbert.  The Committee also appears to be preparing to discuss and possibly vote on H.R. 7866, the American Lending Fairness Act of 2026, sponsored by Representative Warren Davidson (R-OH).   The aim of the bill is to clarify state opt-out rules regarding interest rate caps under the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980.   

A companion bill was introduced in the Senate back in March by Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH), and both bills are strongly supported by the American Bankers Association and a host of other financial trade groups.

But we have to ask with respect: “what’s the point?” When you consider the House has less than 16 days left on the legislative calendar, there is virtually no time at all to advance this bill through the House and then the Senate and then to the President’s desk for signature. (We would also note there was news this morning the House work calendar may be cut in half as Republican members are pressing House Leaders to grant them more time to campaign back home in advance of the midterms). 

 Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is hosting the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Heads Ministerial meeting in Asheville, North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday.  Financial regulation isn’t a major theme of the conference; instead, the talks are dominated by Iran sanctions (and the US Treasury’s growing list of foreign banks it intends to sanction for helping the Iranian economy), global economic growth, and trade.

Looking at last week’s events, we would note the SEC late last week sent a new rule proposal over to the White House regarding investment advisors holding digital assets for clients.  The purpose of the draft regulation is to “clarify the framework for the custody of crypto assets” for investment advisors and investment companies and comes in response to advisors and firms on how to actually hold crypto assets.

The other big event last week was a new final rule from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) redefining “unsafe and unsound” practices for financial institutions – which is aimed at making it more difficult for federal bank examiners to intervene.  The rule effectively raises the bar for examiners to issue Matters Requiring Attention (MRAs) for corrective action.  And as part of this, according to FDIC Chair Travis Hill, the FDIC and OCC are closing, or have already closed, a “large majority” of outstanding supervisory criticisms that do not meet this new standard.

Also early last week, the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) got a new chair: John Crew.  As of now, he is the only member of the NCUA Board.  Previously, Crew served as the Treasury Department’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions.   He replaces Kyle Hauptman, who stayed on until Crew was sworn in.  Hauptman is now serving as a member of the Public Accounting Oversight Board.

Let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is in recess until September 14.

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, September 2, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Strengthening the American Economy: Promoting Growth, Opportunity, and Prosperity.”

·       Wednesday, September 2, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing entitled “Strategic Partnerships to Secure Critical Resources and Supply Chains.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

 The White House

 ·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

·       Tuesday, September 1, 9:05 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook and financial inclusion at the  Second Chance Lending Forum, hosted by Prosperity Now and the Collateral Consequences Resource Center, Washington D.C.

·       Thursday, September 3, 8:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview (Virtual).

Conferences –

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Monday – Tuesday, August 31 – September 1 – The G20 Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors Ministerial meeting takes place in Asheville, North Carolina.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is chairing. 

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Thursday, September 3, 11:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Monday, August 31- September 1 – The Institute of Internal Auditors holds its 2026 Financial Services Exchange Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Recommended Reading

• Credit Card Banking     Itamar Drechsler,  Hyeyoon Jung,  Weiyu Peng,  Dominik Supera  & Guanyu Zhou/ National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: Credit card interest rates currently average 22%, an 18% spread over the short rate. This spread far exceeds that of any other loan or bond, yet nearly half of households are credit card borrowers. Why are credit card rates so high? To understand this, and the economics of credit card banking, we use regulatory account-level data to analyze the lifetime cash flows of 550 million monthly accounts, representing 90% of the US credit card market. While charge-off rates are comparatively high, averaging around 6%, they explain only a fraction of cards' spread. Reward payments and non-interest expenses are more than offset by interchange and non-interest income. Operating expenses, particularly marketing, are very large, and are used to generate pricing power. Yet, after deducting them, card lending still earns a 6.8% return on assets (ROA), more than four times the banking sector's ROA. Using the cross section of accounts, we estimate that credit card rates price in a 4.3% default risk premium, similar to high-yield bonds. Accounting for this, card lending earns an alpha of around 1.5% relative to the aggregate bank sector.

• ·       Choosing To Fail: Managerial Liability, Risk Management and Voluntary Exits of Banks   Haelim Anderson, Charles W. Calomiris & Jennifer S. Rhee/National Bureau of Economic Research

• Abstract: We study how extended stockholder liability shaped bank resolution during and after the Panic of 1893, comparing California state banks (unlimited liability) with national banks (double liability). Using newly assembled data linking California state bank presidents to census records and national bank stock ownership data from Examination Reports, we measure managers’ personal exposures to extended liability. For California state banks, traditional fundamentals predict involuntary liquidations but do not explain voluntary exits. Instead, voluntary exits are driven by managers’ liability exposure, local economic risk, and personal wealth, consistent with managers responding to unlimited liability by initiating preemptive, orderly resolutions. For national banks under double liability, voluntary and involuntary liquidations are more similar, and personal exposure plays a smaller role in risk management. These findings show that substantial personal liability exposure can operate for modern prudential tools like compensation clawbacks and living wills. However, such extended liability also magnifies credit contractions during downturns, highlighting a fundamental tradeoff between micro-stability and macroeconomic fragility in regulatory design.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

Putin and Xi Will Meet at the SCO, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Heads Gather in North Carolina, Germany and the EU Prepare Tough New Sanctions on Russia, and Germany Holds Important State Elections

August 30 - September 6, 2026

Goodbye, August (and Summer) 2026 - it seems we hardly got to know you.  From our perspective, this has been one of the busiest and most intense summers in memory. And from what we can see, looking out over the next six months, it is not going to slow down one bit.  This coming week, there are two big events markets need to focus on – one in North Carolina and the other almost 7,000 miles away in Kyrgyzstan.

The first is the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial in Asheville, North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is chairing the meetings, and the major themes will be growth, trade imbalances, and Iran sanctions.  A number of Wall Street CEOs and Fortune 100 CEOs are expected to be in attendance on the sidelines for meetings with officials.

Look for Bessent to push the G20 to support the Trump Administration’s recently announced “D-Day” sanctions on Iran in a bid to build a multi-nation coalition focused on cutting off Iran’s economic lifeline.  Additionally, Bessent will be talking about growth issues and the overall strength of the US economy as part of Trump Administration messaging in advance of the November mid-terms.

While this is going on, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will hold its 25th Heads of State meeting in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.  Among the attendees will be Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. 

The primary goals of the meeting are ambitious: Markets should watch for the signing of the Bishkek Declaration 2026.  Among the goals of the Declaration is the expanded use of national currencies within the SCO bloc to circumvent US and EU financial systems, broad pledges to build greater intra-energy systems, and possibly finalizing a long-sought-after SCO Development Bank to service the bloc’s economic growth.

 On the sidelines of the Summit, Putin and Xi are expected to meet one-on-one.  Paramount for Putin is finalizing with Xi the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project. The pipeline – estimated to be 1,615 miles long and valued at $14 billion – would provide 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China.  But for a variety of reasons and to the great frustration of Putin, it has been put on hold multiple times since discussions about the project began in 2006.

Additionally, we are likely to see sideline meetings between Putin and possibly Xi with Iran’s President Pezeshkian.  Interestingly, Xi is then traveling from the SCO to Egypt – his first visit there in ten years – for talks on bilateral trade and security issues in the Middle East (firmly showing China’s determination to be a major player in any future peace deals and the rapidly reshaping political architecture of the region).

Also this week, we are watching for an announcement from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz blaming Russia for an attempted explosive drone attack at the Leipzig Airport last month.  Merz is expected to announce significant new sanctions on Russia that will reportedly go hand-in-hand with new EU sanctions (which may be announced at an EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Ireland on Tuesday).  It will be a significant new escalation of tensions between the EU and Russia but it is coming for a reason:  Russian hybrid attacks across the EU targeting critical underwater infrastructure, cyber-attacks, jamming of GPS for commercial airliners, sabotage of critical infrastructure, etc. have significantly increased in the last year, as outlined in a recently published Congressional Research Report (click HERE to read it).

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, the big events this week for markets – aside from the G20 Finance/Central Bank Ministerial and what comes out of the SCO Summit – will be the US August jobs report on Friday.

Other major US reports out this week include the JOLTS report and August ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book and ADP Private Payrolls on Wednesday, and Services numbers on Thursday.

The Bank of Canada meets on interest rates on Wednesday, trade data is out on Thursday, and the Canadian labor force survey for August is out on Friday. 

In Europe, flash August CPIs for Germany are on Monday and for Italy and the Eurozone on Tuesday.   Germany also reports July retail sales on Tuesday and factory orders on Friday. We will also see Eurozone PPIs on Thursday.  Markets are closed in the UK on Monday for a bank holiday.

Moving to Asia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on interest rates on Wednesday.  China reports PMIs on Monday while Japan releases July retail sales and industrial production figures on Monday.  Australia reports Q2 GDP on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope — named after the first Nasa chief astronomer, who is often dubbed “the mother of the Hubble Space Telescope” — launches aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting will be held in Koror, Republic of Palau through September 4th.  The Forum convenes under the theme "Building Economies: Life. Action. Unity," with 18 members including Australia and New Zealand alongside the island states and territories.

·       Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will address the country on the eve of National Day celebrations.

·       Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is traveling to the US to attend the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Ministerial in Asheville, North Carolina.  He will then travel on to Switzerland for meetings at the Bank for International Settlements Governors Meeting on September 5th.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey celebrates Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau holds a constitutional referendum which will expand presidential powers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 31, 2026

Global

·       The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial meeting takes place in Asheville, North Carolina.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is chairing. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 28th Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defense Conference takes place in Victoria, British Columbia through September 2nd.

·       The US House of Representatives returns from their August recess (the Senate does not return until September 14th). They are in session this week but will be off again next week for the Labor Day holiday. The big event for the House will be a vote on the Senate-passed stopgap extending government funding through December 11th.  House Leadership is bringing the measure up for a vote under suspension of the rules and backed by the White House, four weeks ahead of the September 30th deadline. The bipartisan intent is explicitly to avoid a shutdown fight before the midterms.  But this is likely to be a tough fight as House Republicans are split on whether to support the measure.

·       Today is Independence Day in Trinidad and Tobago, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (July)/ Nominal Budget Balance (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Copper Production  (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production  (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Cement Production (July)

·       EARNINGS: SAIC

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Heads of States Summit begins in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan through September 1st.  Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will be in attendance. UN Secretary General Antonio Gueterres will also attend.

·       In Indonesia, Super Garuda Shield begins – a joint US-Indonesian military exercise held in Bandung.  It will be the largest military drill of its kind in Southeast Asia.

·       The APEC Small and Medium Enterprises Ministerial meeting takes place in Guangzhou, China through September 4th.

·       Today is Independence Day in Malaysia.

·       Today is Independence Day, a national holiday in Kyrgyzstan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Japan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ Business Inventories  Q2/ Housing Credit (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (August)

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

·       Thailand Current Account (July)/ Private Consumption (July)/ Private Investment (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Government Budget Value (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers through September 1st in Dublin, Ireland.

·       The Bled Strategic Forum takes place in Bled, Slovenia.  The Forum is organized by Slovenia's Foreign Ministry and the Centre for European Perspective under the title "Choosing The Future."

·       Today is the Late Summer Bank Holiday in the UK.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde and Board Member Piero Cipollone will be attending the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial meeting in Asheville, North Carolina.

·       Hungary PPI (July)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (August)/ Bavaria CPI (August)/ Brandenburg CPI  (August)/ Hesse CPI (August)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (August)/ Saxony CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Spain Current Account (June)

·       Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Greece Retail Sales  (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Ukraine Current Account (July)

·       UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel and Greece are set to sign an agreement in Tel Aviv formally launching the development of “Achilles Shield,” a $3.6 billion integrated air defense and missile protection network.

·       In Saudi Arabia, the LEAP Conference begins.  It is a four-day IT, tech, and AI exhibition.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Food Systems Forum takes place in Kigali and runs through September 4th.

·       Morocco’s official election/campaign season begins for all 395 parliament seats in advance of elections of September 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Global

·       France takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.  French Ambassador Jérôme Bonnafont, Permanent Representative of France to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month of September, will brief reporters on the UN Security Council Program of Work for the month.

·       The G20 Innovation Ministers Meeting takes place in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The second round of negotiations between the Venezuelan government and opposition groups led by Dinorah Figuera is scheduled to be held (Date TBD).

·       President Trump is expected to convene a meeting of US oil refining executives to discuss high gasoline prices.

·       Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum presents second state of the nation government report.

·       Massachusetts holds a primary election between Senator Ed Markey and Representative Seth Moultan for who will be the Democratic nominee in November.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook and financial inclusion at the  Second Chance Lending Forum, hosted by Prosperity Now and the Collateral Consequences Resource Center, Washington D.C.

·       USA ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Redbook (August/29)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (August)/ Construction Spending (July)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (August)/ JOLTs Job Quits (July)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/28)

·       Brazil GDP Growth Rate Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Fiscal Balance (July)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (August)

·       EARNINGS: Dell, Medtronic, MiniMed, Palo Alto Networks, ShopRite

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day, a national holiday in Uzbekistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chinese fashion online retailer Shein goes public in Hong Kong.

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2/ Private House Approvals (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea Imports/Exports (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Indonesia Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/Exports (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Current Account Q2

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers – Gymnich, through September 2nd in Dublin, Ireland.

·       The UK House of Commons returns from summer recess.

·       The 11th Eastern Economic Forum begins in Vladivostok and runs through September 4th.   The theme of the event is “"The Far East: Development for the Benefit of People.”  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend and give a major speech.

·       The EU Arctic Forum, Indigenous Peoples’ Dialogue and Arctic Youth Dialogue begins in Brussels and runs through September 2nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde and Board Member Piero Cipollone will be attending the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial meeting in Asheville, North Carolina.

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Boris Vujčić will give a keynote speech at the inauguration ceremony of the Alexander von Humboldt Professorship at the European School of Management and Technology (ESMT) in Berlin, Germany.

·       Ireland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Germany Retail Sales (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (August)/ BoE Consumer Credit (July)/ Mortgage Approvals (July)/ Mortgage Lending (July)/ M4 Money Supply (July)/ Net Lending to Individuals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q2/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Inflation Rate Flash (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ CPI Flash (August)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       EARNINGS: Swiss Life Holdings

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The next round of Israeli-Lebanese talks mediated by the US is scheduled to take place (but may be moved to later in the week).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The USS Abraham Lincoln, after more than 250 days at sea, including operations in the Middle East as part of the Iran War, makes a rest-and-recreation stop in the Thai city of Pattaya.  More than 5,000 sailors and Marines will come ashore for the rest of the week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Canada meets on interest rates.  BoC Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference following the meeting at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ Industrial Production (July)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/28)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/28)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/28)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/28)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Factory Orders  (July)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/28)/ Fed Beige Book/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       EARNINGS: American Eagle, Broadcom, Brown-Foreman, Five Below, Hewlett Packard, NetApp, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, Snowflake, PVH

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       SEMICON, the largest semiconductor trade show in the industry, begins in Taipei, Taiwan and runs through September 4th.

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, a national holiday. To help celebrate the day, dozens of infrastructure projects will be launched across the country.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech to a group of local leaders in Sapporo, Japan.

·       New Zealand Building Permits (July)/ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/01)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (August)/ Ai Group Construction Index (August)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP Chain Price Index Q2/ GDP Consumption Q2/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (August)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Japan Monetary Base/ BoJ Takada Speech

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (August)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (August)

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/21)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to London to attend the formal opening of the Bayeux Tapestry exhibition and meet with UK Prime Minister Andrew Burnham. This will be the first UK visit by a UK leader to meet with Burnham since he took office.

·       There will be an informal meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Dublin, Ireland, through September 4th.

·       Estonia’s parliament convenes an extraordinary session to elect a new president.

·       Today is Ceuta Day, recognizing the Spanish autonomous city’s sovereignty.  Ceuta has been experiencing massive migrant waves and clashes with police and local residents in recent weeks trying to kick them out.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a public panel "Future-proofing European banking discussion" at Bruegel Annual Meetings 2026 in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Spain New Car Sales (August)/ Unemployment Change (August)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (August)/ PPI (July)

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ Corporate Profits (June)/ Real Wage Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will make his first state visit to Egypt in ten years.  He will be in Egypt through September 3rd.  Xi will ​meet ⁠President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and exchange views on bilateral ties and ⁠international ​and regional issues of ​common concern.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The UN’s Office for Disaster Risk Reduction holds its Africa Early Warnings Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (July)

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Thursday, September 3, 2026

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ontario, Canada holds local elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview (Virtual).

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives opening remarks at the Opening Communities Webinar entitled “When Every Dollar Counts: Worker Perspectives on the Economy.”

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/29)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/29)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q2/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/ S&P Global Composite PMI  (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services Business Activity (August)/ ISM Services Employment (August)/ ISM Services New Orders (August)/ ISM Services Prices (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/28)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (September/03)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/03)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/02)/ Fed Hammack Speech

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Labor Productivity Q2/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)

·       Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       Colombia Exports (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       EARNINGS: Ciena, Wiley, Campbell’s Company, Toro, DocuSign, Lululemon, Smith & Wesson

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Bangkok Business Summit 2026 begins.  The one-day event will bring together government and business leaders to showcase the country's economic potential and build international confidence ahead of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank annual meeting in October.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Import/Export Prices Q2/ Terms of Trade Q2

·       Australia S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/29)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI  (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI  (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Singapore S&P Global Services PMI (August)

·       China RatingDog Services PMI (August)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Composite PMI (August)/ HSBC Services PMI (August)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/28)

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez addresses the Spanish Congress on the Ceuta migrant crisis.

·       The Reform UK National Conference opens in Birmingham and runs through September 5th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

·       France New Car Registrations (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)

·       Russia GDP (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ PPI  (July)

·       UK S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       UAE S&P Global PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)

Friday, September 4, 2026

Global

• World FAO Food Price Index (August)/ Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (August)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Full-Time Employment Chg (August)/ Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Wages (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Earnings  (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Weekly Hours (August)/ Government Payrolls (August)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (August)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (August)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (September/04)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/04)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 8th Russian-Chinese meeting on energy is scheduled to take place on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok.  The main issue to be discussed will be strategic energy projects including a meeting between President Putin and Chinese Executive Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang on finalizing a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline.

·       In India, the Janmashtami festival is celebrated.  It marks the birth of Hindu god Krishna.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (August)

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Household Spending  (July)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/28)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 52nd TEHA/Ambrosetti Forum (The Cernobbio Forum) begins in Milan, Italy, and runs through September 6th.  The event is held at Villa d'Este under the Chatham House Rule.  Representatives of nine governments attending including Ukraine, Italy, Croatia, Albania, Azerbaijan and US.  The first day agenda covers global economic, geopolitical and technological issues.  The second day focuses on Europe with officials from all major EU institutions.

·       Arctic Sentry, a NATO training mission being held in Greenland begins and runs through September 18th.

·       Today marks the day when Giorgia Meloni becomes the longest-lasting Italian prime minister in the republic’s history.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the LSE TRIUM Anniversary Conference in London.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote address on "Diversity in the European Central Bank" at Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE) Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Romania Retail Sales  (July)

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       UK New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (August)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (August)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Ireland PPI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (August)

·       EARNINGS: Vivendi, Ermenegildo Zegna, National Beverage

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI  (July)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals  (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Business Confidence Q3

Saturday, September 5, 2026

Global

·       The Bank for International Settlements Bimonthly Governors meeting will take place in Basel, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Impact Forum begins in Mumbai, India and runs through September 6th.   A number of senior Indian political officials and business leaders will be speaking and/or attending.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis makes annual economic policy speech at Thessaloniki trade fair.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 6, 2026

Global

·       OPEC+ meets virtually to review market conditions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt state hold elections for the state parliament and local district councils.  This election is attracting international attention as the far-right AfD Party is leading in the polls and have a good shot at winning.  If that happens, most observers believe it will likely give the AfD significant momentum for future national elections.

·       In London, Jamaican officials visit to lodge an unprecedented legal complaint calling for reparations for slavery.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 8th in Dublin, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Swaziland, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

·       August 29 – 30: The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

·       August 31 – September 1: the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

·       September 1 – 2: There will be a G20 Innovation Ministerial held in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

·       September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

·       September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

·       September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

·       September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

·       September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

·       October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

·       October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

·       October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

·       October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.  There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

·       October 11 – 13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

·       October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held.  All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

·       November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

·       November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

·       December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

·       December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

·       January 18 – 22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

·       April 12 – 18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Rise and Risks of Quantum Computing, China’s Grip on the Iron Ore Market and Impact on the US Navy, the Shareholder State, and Russia’s and Iran’s Growing Hybrid Attacks on the US and Europe

August 28 - 30, 2026

Below are several reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.

The Quantum Computing Revolution: Opportunities and Risks

• The Quantum Revolution: A Guide for Allied Policymakers Hoover Institution Press

  The Hoover Institution at Stanford University recently published this report on the fast-moving changes to quantum technologies. Quantum technologies are moving from the laboratory toward strategic relevance but at varying paces and with different implications for allied security. This report offers nontechnical policymakers in allied countries a comprehensive guide to quantum computing, sensing, and communications: each technology's status, China’s competitive strategy, and why no single nation can control the tech stack. It argues that US leadership in the quantum era hinges on orchestrating resilient alliance networks.

• Securing the quantum stack: export controls, choke points and strategic competition International Institute for Strategic Studies

  The US and its allies have built aligned export controls on quantum technology, targeting supply-chain choke points before the industry matures. Their success will depend not only on denying rivals access, but also on sustaining the allied ecosystem. Quantum computing illustrates how export controls on emerging technologies face fundamentally different challenges than those applied to mature industries. The central challenge is balancing two competing objectives: preventing military exploitation by strategic rivals while also avoiding restrictions that would unnecessarily impede scientific research, commercialization, and innovation.

The Fight for Critical Minerals and Access to Iron Ore, US Government Equity Stakes, and the New Geography of Energy Security

• The Shareholder State: Washington's Improvised Bet on Critical Minerals Heidi Crebo-Rediker/Council on Foreign Relations

  China’s weaponization of its dominance over critical minerals, rare earths, and permanent magnets has forced the United States to abandon the fiction that markets alone will deliver secure supply chains. Beijing controls most of the processing, separation, refining, and magnet-making capabilities that stand between a mineral in the ground and its use in an aircraft, missile, car, robot, phone, semiconductor, or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machine. Since 2010, when China first weaponized Japan’s access to critical minerals over a maritime dispute, It has shown a willingness to restrict exports of strategic materials and technologies when doing so serves its geopolitical interests. As a result, the author argues, the United States needs to use equity strategically, as part of a broader architecture designed to build commercially sustainable supply chains that serve national security interests while keeping markets free but not defenseless.

• Critical minerals will reshape European-African relations ISS/Africa Futures.

  Its search for critical minerals is leading Europe to turn its attention more strongly towards Africa: the continent is home to approximately 30% of the reserves of critical raw materials, including strategically important resources such as copper, cobalt, platinum group metals, manganese, bauxite and lithium. At the same time, African countries rich in raw materials are implementing industrial policy measures, such as export restrictions on unprocessed minerals and local-content requirements, to gain a larger domestic share of the value added. Rather than relying on raw commodity exports, governments[TM1] seek to increase fiscal revenues, strengthen foreign-exchange earnings, generate skilled employment and foster industrial diversification through downstream activities such as refining, smelting, battery component production and manufacturing. Importantly, China poses a major economic risk to [TM2] Germany. In 2024, BDI and Roland Berger calculated that the macroeconomic costs to Germany in the event of a Chinese export ban on lithium and lithium-containing products would amount to 115 billion euros; thus, not diversifying will eventually be the more expensive scenario. Like other countries such as Japan and, more recently, the US, the EU and its member states have adapted their raw materials-related policies and instruments (like the CRMA or the German Raw Materials Fund) to invest in mining, processing, and recycling capacity, as well as innovation, to support and de-risk companies’ diversification efforts.

• Why China’s Grip on Iron Ore Is a Warning for the US Navy Peter Pham/National Interest

  Speaking several weeks ago at a roundtable of the American mining industry convened in Washington, President Donald Trump proclaimed that “critical minerals are the raw materials of American strength and power” and announced some $2 billion of investments in critical minerals-related projects as well as $180 million to bolster training of a qualified workforce. Almost all of the former was aimed at securing supply chains for rare earth elements (REEs) and other strategic materials needed for defense and other vital industries. This included the $400 million conditional loan commitment from the Department of Defense’s Office of Strategic Capital to Australia’s Sunrise Energy Metals to develop the full value chain (with first-offer rights going to the United States) for metals used in the aerospace and defense sectors.

  As welcome as this development is, rare earths are hardly the sole material where a foreign competitor’s dominance presents a challenge. However, China just demonstrated once again how much power it now wields over global markets for critical minerals—and not just by its dominance of processing and consequent“chokepoint” power via export controls to turn supply pipelines on or off. In 2022, Beijing created the China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) to consolidate its buying power, giving it enormous leverage over global demand for iron ore, Earth’s most traded dry physical bulk commodity. For seven months, CMRG effectively shut a major product from BHP, the free world’s largest mining company by capitalization, out of the market until in late April the Australian company agreed to price much of that ore in Chinese yuan through an index Beijing created, instead of the US dollar-based benchmark that has anchored the trade up to now.

• From Hormuz to the Caucasus: The New Geography of Energy Security War on the Rocks

  Every crisis in the Middle East returns the world’s attention to the same stretch of water. When tankers are seized, or missiles fly near the Persian Gulf, oil prices move, insurers reprice risk, shipping reroutes, and the United States repositions naval and airpower to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The reflex is sound, because the strait carries volumes nothing else can. Alongside the maritime map, a second geography of energy security is taking shape: the pipelines, railways, power lines, and transit corridors linking the Caspian Basin and the South Caucasus to Europe. Western governments are pairing forward military presence in the Persian Gulf with a slower effort to diversify the routes by which energy and trade reach markets. The two efforts are being pursued separately, by different parts of government and on different timelines. They may not form a single strategy, but together these reduce the leverage any single chokepoint, supplier, or armed actor can exert over the system.

Russia’s and Iran’s Hybrid Warfare on the US and Europe

• Russian Hybrid Warfare Activities in Europe: Considerations for Congress Congressional Research Service

  Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, US, European, and NATO officials have highlighted the continued threat Russia poses to European security. Observers and European officials have expressed concern regarding the rise of Russian hybrid warfare activities. In an October 2025 speech, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated, “It is a coherent and escalating campaign to unsettle our citizens, test our resolve, divide our Union, and weaken our support for Ukraine. And it is time to call it by its name. This is hybrid warfare, and we have to take it very seriously.” Hybrid warfare activities attributed to Russia by US and European officials and observers have included acts of sabotage, assassinations, airspace violations, global positioning system (GPS) jamming, the severing or damaging of critical underwater infrastructure (CUI), cyberattacks, weaponized migration, and political and election interference. According to one study, the number of Russian hybrid attacks in Europe quadrupled from 2023 to 2024; another investigation compiled at least 151incidents of reported Russian operations from February 2022 to March 2026.

• Mapping Iranian Cyberattacks on US Water Systems Center for Strategic and International Studies

  In late July, Minnesota authorities disclosed that a coordinated cyberattack had targeted more than 30 municipal water systems across the state. The following weeks saw additional revelations in other states. Officials are beginning to understand the scope of what is likely an Iranian cyber campaign months in the making. Although the US government has not publicly attributed the attacks, an Iranian actor linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) known as the CyberAv3ngers has claimed responsibility, stating their intention was to “warn America to back down.”The following set of charts brings together existing press reporting and CSIS expert analysis to provide a picture of what is known about the cyberattacks on the US water sector so far. It is important to acknowledge that the reporting is thus far incomplete; the current understanding of the scope and scale of the attacks is reliant on states self-reporting incidents as they search their technical logs from recent weeks, and reporting requirements are inconsistent at best.

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

G20 Deputy Finance Ministers Prep for Next Week’s Big Meeting, Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole, and Other Than That, Nothing is Going on Next Week

August 24 - 29, 2026

Washington is going to be really quiet next week.  No big regulatory meetings or speeches; Congress is still out, and a good portion of the Treasury Department is headed down to Asheville, North Carolina, for the G20 Deputy Finance Ministers Meeting, which takes place three days before the big Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (August 31-September 1). 

But the big event of the week will be in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the Kansas City Fed hosts the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will give an important economic outlook speech Friday).

Enjoy the peace and quiet.  September will be very busy. Let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is in recess until September 14.

House of Representatives

·       The House is in recess until September 7.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

·       Friday, August 28, 10:00 a.m. (Mountain Time) – Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives keynote remarks at The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Conferences –

·       Thursday – Saturday, August 27 – 29 – The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium takes place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The theme of this year’s conference is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

U.S. Treasury Department

·       August 29 – 30 –  The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting takes place in Asheville, North Carolina.  The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting takes place three days later in Asheville (August 31 – September 1).

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday, August 25, 11:00 a.m. – 1:10 p.m. – The American Bankers Association holds its virtual HR Connection Forum.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Iran’s Parlimentary Speaker Trolls the US Over Treasury Market Turbulence

August 23, 2026

Earlier this week, I posted a note on how I believe Tehran has a bond market strategy as part of their overall fight against the US (the graph below). This morning, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, posted the below meme tweet mocking the US and the state of the Treasury markets - which goes directly to my earlier point. 

Iran is fighting an extraordinary and highly unusual asymmetrical war against the US. And markets should expect them to extend it to every part of the global markets they can reach.

The Global Week Ahead

The US to Announce New Sanctions on Iran, Pakistan’s Army Chief Carries New US Message to Iran, US-Canadian Trade Talks Collapse, Central Bankers Gather in Wyoming, and Is Lagarde Leaving the ECB?

August 23 - 30, 2026

The last week of August is going to be a busy one both geopolitically and for global markets.  On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to hold a news conference announcing a new round of economic sanctions on Iran President Trump has billed as the “toughest sanctions in history.”  It is expected the sanctions will apply to a number of Iran’s neighboring countries in an attempt to crush what is left of Iran’s economy (the US dollar rose to a record 1.98 million Iranian rials in Iran’s open markets on Sunday. The British pound reached 2.7 million and the Euro reached 2.3 million).

 Iran has called any new US sanctions “economic terrorism” and is threatening to militarily target any country that complies with them.  The big question is whether the sanctions will go after Chinese banks and Chinese “teapot” oil refineries which specialize in Iranian oil and are seen as a major funder of Iran’s economy.  Our sources tell us it is highly unlikely China in any way will be included out of White House concern it will derail Chinese President Xi Jinping’s scheduled visit to Washington in September.  

One new development emerged this weekend: It has been announced that on Monday, Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff, Asim Munir, will travel to Tehran for talks with senior Iranian officials.  While the visit is being billed as an effort to “strengthen bilateral cooperation” and bolster Pakistan’s efforts to “promote peace in the region,” there are reports Munir is also carrying a new message from the US that may signal President Trump’s willingness to pursue a new round of peace talks.

Meanwhile, markets were stunned late Friday when news broke that trade talks between Canada and the US broke down and President Trump is moving forward with new 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods effective Saturday. 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada  is now “at war” over trade with the US and will impose new dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on September 8th.   It appears the talks broke down when President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick demanded a new set of concessions from Canada at the last minute as Carney was already facing serious political constraints at home on what had already been agreed upon.  Among them was a demand from the US to have “exclusive access” to Canada’s critical minerals and President Trump’s belief that French language provisions on products in French-speaking Quebec are actually used as trade barriers (which he wanted eliminated).

What happens next is anyone’s guess. Republican lawmakers were split in their reaction to the announcement, with many border state Republicans asking the White House to quickly reconsider entering into new talks. 

Also of note this week: Iceland is holding a referendum on whether to resume negotiations to join the European Union.  Talks had started in 2009 but were suspended in 2013.  Polls suggest the vote is going to be close with 53 percent of voters wanting to reopen negotiations and 47 opposed – but the issue of fishing rights is a major stumbling block for ultimate approval of the country joining.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, the big event this week is the annual Jackson Hole Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank.  Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give a major speech on the economic outlook on Friday.  But on the sidelines, we think there will be significant discussion on the future of the European Central Bank with news breaking over the weekend that ECB President Christine Lagarde is preparing to step down and is “ready to serve” as the new chair of the World Economic Forum (WEF).  Reports that she would take the job have circulated for a while, despite Lagarde previously dismissing them.

Also this week, the G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting takes place Saturday and Sunday in Ashville, North Carolina. The meeting takes place in advance of the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial being held August 31st through September 1st.   Federal Reserve Board Governor Warsh is also scheduled to attend and speak.

Looking at the major economic indicators, in the US, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is out on Tuesday as is July new home sales. Then on Wednesday,  the July PCE reports on personal income, spending and durable goods orders. 

In Asia, Japan’s August Tokyo CPI and July labor market data reports are out on Friday. China releases July industrial profits on Thursday.

In Europe, The ECB’s July meeting account is released on Thursday. We will also see the French and Spanish August CPI prints are out on Friday.  Germany’s Ifo August survey is out Tuesday as is Q2 GDP estimates. France’s consumer confidence report is out Tuesday, Germany’s consumer confidence on Thursday, and Italy’s on Friday.

Finally, earnings reports are still coming out and the big one markets are watching this week is Nvidia’s on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 23, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa travels to Singapore and then Vietnam as part of a broader Asia trip.  Today, he concluded a visit to China where he met with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and other senior officials.  The China meetings – his second visit to China since June – were focused on finding a way to resolve the suspension of 14 Ecuadorian shrimp processors and to secure fresh investments by China in energy and mining in Ecuador.  The Singapore visit is aimed at improving trade and using Singapore as a greater gateway for Ecuadorian products in the wider ASEAN market.  The Vietnam visit is aimed at generally improving bilateral trade and agricultural exports.

·       Mexican Deputy Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco Alvarez travels to South Korea for meetings through August 25th.  They will discuss energy security and other security issues.

·       The Panamerican Congress concludes in Montevideo, Uruguay.  This is a meeting of Progressive lawmakers from all over the Western Hemisphere, including a large contingent of US Democratic lawmakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah will pay an official visit to China through August 24th for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  They are expected to discuss the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

·       In Kazakhstan, legislative elections are held for all 145 seats of their  parliament (Kurultai).

·       Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will make an annual address to mark the independence of the city-state. Seen as his keynote political speech for the year, Wong is expected to address how his government can further support families as the Southeast Asian financial hub struggles with raising its birth rate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar will be in Moscow for two days of meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov.  Jaishankar will co-chair the 27th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC).  Jaishankar’s meeting with Lavrov is expected to focus on regional and global issues – this is the second meeting between the two ministers in the last month.  Tensions between the two countries recently became elevated when in late July four Indian sailors were killed by a Russian missile strike on a merchant vessel in the Black Sea.

·       Today is National Flag Day in Ukraine. 

·       The Stockholm International Water Institute holds its World Water Week Conference in Stockholm, Sweden through August 27th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu in Paris, France.   The Crown Prince last visited Paris in 2023.  The leaders will discuss ways to expand economic partnerships and ways of returning stability in the Middle East in the face of the Iran War and the ongoing military activities in Lebanon and Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 24, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan.

·       The ONS International Energy Conference begins in Stavanger, Norway.  The event focuses on geopolitics, energy security and climate issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce additional economic sanctions on Iran.  Iranian leaders have threatened a military response to whatever the US imposes. Markets are watching the announcement closely to see if the sanctions will include Chinese “teapot” oil refineries and Chinese banks involved in processing Iranian oil production.

·       Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Van Thang travels to the US to a participate in the Columbia University Vietnam Leadership Program.  He will then travel to Washington for meetings with US officials and business leaders.

·       Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov travels to the US for meetings on a variety of defense technology projects.  Fedorov was ousted as Defense Minister by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in July. His meetings may include a meeting with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.

·       The Nuclear Energy Conference & Expo (NECX) begins in Dallas, Texas, bringing together utilities, advanced reactor developers, regulators, policymakers and investors to discuss the industry’s future. Continuing until Thursday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivers most recent speech, “The Mysterious U.S. Economy" before the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce “Eggs & Issues" event.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)

·       Chile PPI (July)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Woodside Energy

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan’s King Abdullah II concludes a week-long state visit to China.

·       Today is the last day of Vietnam’s extraordinary National Assembly session. During the session, the body approved an agreement related to the country's first nuclear power plant project in Ninh Thuan province, as well as special mechanisms to resolve obstacles facing some wind and solar power projects. Lawmakers are also scheduled to vote on proposals to establish Quang Ninh and Bac Ninh as centrally governed cities, along with special policies for projects supporting APEC 2027 on Phu Quoc island.

·       A cross-party group of Japanese legislators are expected to travel to Beijing for meetings through August 27th in a bid to help thaw tensions between China and Japan.

·       The APEC Food Security Ministerial meeting takes in Hangzhou, China.

·       The Silk Road Finance and Technology Forum begins in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and runs through August 26th. The Forum is the annual gathering for Central Asian economies.

·       Hyundai Motor workers are expected to hold a four-hour strike at plants nationwide in South Korea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       EARNINGS: XPeng Inc, PDD Holdings Inc., Sinopec (first-half earnings)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska will participate remotely in a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, co-hosted by the UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

·       Today is Independence Day in Ukraine, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Aino Bunge joins a panel discussion on private capital markets in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir will travel to Tehran on Monday at the head of an official delegation. Baghaei said the visit was aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation and continuing Pakistan’s efforts to promote peace and security in the region. Munir is scheduled to hold talks with senior Iranian officials during the visit.  He is reportedly carrying a new message from the US on possible peace talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Flag Day in Liberia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of International Peace and Security - Food Under Fire: The Security Council’s Role in Mitigating Global and Local Food Crises. World Food Program Acting Executive Director Carl Skau will be briefing alongside the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Carolina Senate run-off election between Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman (R-SC) is held.

·       Oklahoma holds gubernatorial primary run-off elections.

·       Today is Independence Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President gives a speech entitled "The Mysterious U.S. Economy" before the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance, Charlotte, North Carolina.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (August)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (August/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (June)/ House Price Index (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (August)/ New Home Sales (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (August)/ Money Supply (July)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/21)/ Building Permits (July)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

·       Mexico Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (July)

·       EARNINGS: Scotiabank, BMO, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Intuit, Zoom, Select Quote

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait Foreign Minister Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah travels from China to South Korea for meetings with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun.  It is the first trip by a Kuwaiti foreign minister to the country since 2007.   Kuwait is South Korea’s 5th largest crude oil supplier and 4th overseas construction market for South Korea globally. They are expected to focus on energy security and the Iran War.

·       Indonesia hosts the annual Super Garuda Shield military exercises.  For more than two weeks, more than 3,000 military personal from Indonesia, the US, Australia, Japan, the Netherlands, Canada, South Korea, Timor Leste, India, Singapore, New Zealand, Brazil, Italy, Laos, and Cambodia will participate.

·       China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will hold a session through August 28th in Beijing.  Agenda items include draft laws such as the Medical Security Law, Enterprise Bankruptcy Law amendments, and proposed changes to the Banking Supervision and Administration Law, plus a review of national economic and social development plan implementation and the state budget so far this year.

·       The Inaugural Singapore-Vietnam Strategic Dialogue begins in Singapore.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

·       China National People's Congress

·       Australia RBA Jacobs Speech

·       Japan Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Vatican’s Foreign Minister, Archbishop Paul Gallagher, travels to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.  He will be in Moscow through August 28th.  The purpose of the meetings is to discuss a variety of diplomatic and ecumenical issues, including the Ukraine War.  Gallagher was recently in Ukraine (July)

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Ifo Business Climate (August)/ Ifo Current Conditions (August)/ Ifo Expectations (August)

·       France Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Spain PPI (July)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Lego (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (June)

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, including the Palestinian question.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will hold its International High-level Forum to launch the Atomic Technologies Licensed for Applications at Sea (ATLAS) initiative in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (August/21)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/21)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/21)/ Durable Goods Orders (July)/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2/ Personal Income (July)/ Personal Spending (July)/ Corporate Profits Q2/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp (July)/ GDP Price Index 2nd Est Q2/ PCE Price Index (July)/ PCE Prices 2nd Est Q2/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (July)/ GDP Sales 2nd Est Q2/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (July)/ Real Consumer Spending 2nd Est Q2/ Real Personal Spending (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/21)/ Fed Barkin Speech

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (August)

·       EARNINGS: Nvidia, National Bank (Canada), EQB (Canada), Kohl’s, Dycom, Williams-Sonoma, JMS Smucker Co., Nutanix, Synopsys, CrowdStrike, Salesforce

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia and Australia will hold their 10th “2+2” Foreign and Defense Ministers meeting in Melbourne.

·       The Nikkei Asia Forum Sydney 2026 is held.  The event convenes high-level government, business and diplomatic figures to discuss key issues confronting Australia-Japan relations and broader developments in the region. Speakers include the secretary of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the chair of Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board, the chair of Export Finance Australia, and the country's former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, as well as key figures from major banks, energy companies, hospitality and investment firms.

·       The Thailand Focus 2026 Conference is held in Bangkok, with Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas among the scheduled speakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)/ Construction Work Done Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (July)/ CPI (July)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (July)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       China National People's Congress

·       Singapore Industrial Production (July)

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank's Symposium "Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ SNB Martin Speech

·       UK CBI Distributive Trades (August)/ Car Production (July)

·       Russia Industrial Production (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Prudential

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins and runs through August 29th.  This year’s theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Syria, followed by consultations on the Middle East.

·       The BRICS Contact Group on Economic and Trade Issues holds a virtual meeting. 

·       The BRICS Working Group on Environment meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Thomas Barkin participates in panel before the Greensboro Chamber of Commerce "State of Our Community" event in Greensboro, North Carolina.

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/22)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (July)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/15)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/22)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (August)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/27)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/27)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/26)

·       Brazil Current Account (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Current Account Q2/Average Weekly Earnings (June)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (July)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (July)

·       EARNINGS: CIBC, Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, Best Buy, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Hormel, Burlington, Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Gap

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks at a meeting of local business leaders in Saitama, Japan.

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/22)/BoJ JGB Purchase

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia RBA Bulletin/ Building Capital Expenditure Q2/ Household Spending (July)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q2/ Private Capital Expenditure Q2/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (July)/ National People's Congress

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: BiliBili, Vanke, Qantas Airways

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Political and Security Committee meets in Brussels.  The Committee is composed of all ambassadors of the 27 EU members states. They are expected to review and discuss the situation in Iran and other major international issues and events.

·       Today is Independence Day in Moldova, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank monetary policy meeting minutes released.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (June)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

·       France PPI (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (July)/ Jobseekers Total (July)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies (July)/ Loans to Households (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       EARNINGS: Pernod Ricard

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (June)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/21)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (July)

Friday, August 28, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a consultation on Lebanon.

·       The BRICS FinTech Group meets virtually.

·       A partial lunar eclipse will be visible over the Americas, Europe, Africa and parts of western Asia

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives keynote remarks at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August)/ Bank Lending (July)/ PPI (July)/ Net Payrolls (July)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP (June)/ GDP (July)/ GDP Implicit Price Q2/ Budget Balance (June)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (July)

·       USA Chicago PMI (August)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (August)/ Michigan Current Conditions (August)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/28)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/28)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (July)/ Jobs/applications ratio (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (August)/ Tokyo CPI (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Construction Orders (July)

·       Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)/ Budget Balance (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (July)/ Import/Export Prices (July)/ PPI (July)

·       China National People's Congress

·       Malaysia PPI (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Private Consumption (July)/ Private Investment (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)

·       India Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/21)

·       EARNINGS: Petronas, Bank of China (HY)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Russia GDP (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (August)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       France Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Household Consumption (July)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August)

·       Turkey Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Confidence Index (August)/ Imports/Exports (July)

·       Germany Unemployed Persons (August)/ Unemployment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Industrial Sentiment (August)/ Selling Price Expectations (August)/ Services Sentiment (August)

·       Greece PPI (July)/ Total Credit (July)

·       Serbia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Ireland Retail Sales (July)

·       EARNINGS: Bertelsmann (HY), Northam Platinum (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Global

·       The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting begins in Asheville, North Carolina and runs through August 30th.   The meeting is in preparation for the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting being chaired by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Asheville on August 31st to September 1st.  The agenda of both meetings is “modernizing financial regulation; strengthening our understanding of excessive global imbalances; enhancing debt transparency and facilitating debt restructuring processes; endorsing a vibrant digital assets ecosystem; improving cross-border payments and addressing payments fraud and scams; and promoting financial literacy.” 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iceland holds a referendum on the resumption of European Union membership negotiations. Iceland applied to join the EU in 2009, but negotiations have been suspended since 2013.  Subsequent governments have insisted that a referendum be held before negotiations resume.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union will hold the 21st Extraordinary Summit on Strengthening Conflict Prevention and Resolution Mechanisms in Luanda, Angola.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope — named after the first NASA chief astronomer, who is often dubbed “the mother of the Hubble Space Telescope” — launches aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting will be held in Koror, Republic of Palau.

·       Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey celebrates Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau holds a constitutional referendum which will expand presidential powers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead 

·       August 29 – 30: The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

·       August 31 – September 1: the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

·       September 1 – 2: There will be a G20 Innovation Ministerial held in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

·       September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

·       September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

·       September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

·       September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

·       September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

·       October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

·       October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

·       October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

·       October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.  There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

·       October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held.  All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

·       November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

·       November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

·       December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

·       December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Does Iran Have A Treasury Market Strategy?

August 20, 2026

Markets understand there is a correlation between global oil prices and bonds. But the interesting question is: How well does the leadership in Tehran understand this and have they made it part of their overall strategy vs.the US? Or to put it another way, are they seeking to weaponize the Treasury markets? 

I think the answer is a simple “yes - very much so.” Iranian leadership have proven over the last five and half months that they are not only highly resilient but creative and cunning in their military strategies and tactics (just look at the use of drones/missiles on US facilities throughout the region, mines in the Strait of Hormuz, calibrated deployment of the Houthis in Yemen to threaten both the Gulf States but also threaten closure of the Red Sea, etc.). 

With that in mind, why wouldn’t they want to deploy every tool at their disposal to impact the global bond markets in general and US Treasuries in particular? Of course they would. They understand that by driving up oil prices Treasury’s would be impacted (especially if timed with other global market event/shifts such as big sell-offs of AI and semiconductor sectors). 

the US Treasury is responding today with the announcement of more buybacks to help calm the market. But the lesson is learned: Iran is willing and capable of doing a lot more than most analysts seem to understand to both defend themselves and attack the US.