Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 8/2/26 Francis Kelly 8/2/26

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The House of Representatives Is Out On Vacation For August and the Senate Is About to Join Them, The Crypto Bill Is Stuck, and Will the Last Regulator Around Please Turn Out the Lights for the Rest of the Month?

August 3 - 7, 2026

Washington got pretty quiet this past week when the House of Representatives adjourned for the August recess. And it is going to get even quieter at the end of this week when the Senate leaves for its break.

There is some hope there will be a breakthrough on the CLARITY Act this week, but we are skeptical. Senate Democrats are not budging from their position demanding tougher ethics provisions (aimed at President Trump and his family's crypto business). Plus, there are several Republicans – including Senator Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) – who are "highly resistant" to moving the bill in its current form.

Plus, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) already has a busy week of bills to deal with, none more important than securing a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government open until December. Thus, it's pretty clear to us the CLARITY Act is about to slide into an already crowded September line-up of "must-do " bills.

There is one congressional hearing of note happening this week – the Senate Banking Committee is holding a hearing looking at ways of helping unlock more capital for "Main Street." SIFMA CEO Ken Bentsen, Sullivan & Cromwell Partner Dalia Bass, and Mike Bass from the US Chamber of Commerce's Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness will testify.

Beyond that, there is not much going on at the regulatory agencies this week. There are no events of note being hosted by trade associations or think tanks, either. What few things we could find happening in the financial regulatory space are below. Let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, August 5, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Exploring Process Approaches for Addressing Social Security Solvency.”

· Thursday, August 6, 10:15 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Empowering Main Street by Unlocking Access to Capital.”

House of Representatives

· The House is in August recess until September 7th.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· Wednesday, August 5, 4:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation 2026 Economic Luncheon in Anchorage, Alaska.

· Thursday, August 6, 5:30 p.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Musalem speaks at the Center for Public Policy Debate.

· Friday, August 7, 10:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually at a National Association for Business Economics Fireside Chat.

Conferences –

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, August 6, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

· Thursday, August 6, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC has announced that the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting held on July 21, 2026, will reconvene virtually today.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/2/26 Francis Kelly 8/2/26

The Global Week Ahead

August 2 - 9, 2026

Trump Calls Off New Attacks on Iran (for now), Venezuela's Government Launches Talks with Opposition Leaders, Colombia Gets a New President, and It Will Be Another Big Earnings Week

In the Northern Hemisphere, the Dog Days of Summer are quickly taking hold as most major political leaders and parliaments (as well as business executives) flee for holiday break. But there is still a good amount of geopolitical activity this week markets should pay close attention to – with Iran again dominating the spotlight.

Following weeks of back-and-forth attacks by the US and Iran, President Trump ordered a new set of heavy strikes on Iran Friday. However, late Saturday, he canceled those planned attacks, saying Saudi Arabia and Iran have asked him to hold up, and with Iran apparently indicating the "perimeter of a deal" with the US (but Iran has not publicly confirmed this apparent request). This is all extremely fast-moving and likely to be a "two steps forward, one step back" series of events for weeks – if not months – ahead.

Meanwhile, this weekend Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez sat down with opposition leaders Jorge Rodriguez, who represents the opposition in the National Assembly, and Dinorah Figuera, who represents a bloc of opposition groups (not present was opposition. The talks aim to see if the country can begin to map out a path to national elections. But complicating the talks is a split within the opposition as to when and how those elections should take place. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated the US is very involved in brokering the talks. No timeline has been set for completion of the talks.

Also this coming week, Peru will inaugurate a new president, conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella. But it is going to be something of a messy event as outgoing President Gustavo Petro not only refuses to attend (citing unproven allegations the election was stolen) but he also blocked Espriella's effort – which broke with tradition of being sworn into office in the capital, Bogotá – to have it take place at a military base in Cauca (Espriella wanted it there to emphasize his political message of decentralizing the government as well as his focus on security and anti-narcoterrorism).

Instead, the swearing-in will take place in Cali. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Argentine President Javier Milei, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa (all ideologically/politically aligned with Espriella) will be in attendance. There are expected to be large demonstrations in Cali against Espriella, with a resulting 11,000-plus police officers being deployed for the event.

We also want to note that while August is typically quiet in Washington, two major trade issues are coming up in the coming weeks. First, US-Canadian trade relations are set to take another hit on August 19th with the implementation of US Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods, overriding USMCA protections). All this looms as Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc was in Washington this past week for his first in-person meetings with US Trade Representative Jamison Greer to negotiate the next iteration of the USMCA/CUSA.

However, President Trump told Fox News on July 28th that he has "no interest" in preserving USMCA/CUSA. But Trump is facing growing pressure from Republican members of Congress in battleground states – especially farm states and Canadian border states – to renew the trade deal or risk them losing their seats in November. We expect a fair number of discussions between Ontario and Washington over the coming month, which may turn the curve more positively toward a deal.

Secondly, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Greer held a call with Vice Premier He Lifeng this past Thursday. The call was the most senior contact between Beijing and Washington since May. Beijing is pushing back hard on new US forced-labor tariffs as both sides are jockeying ahead of a still-undated September Xi-Trump reciprocal visit to Washington. The US-China tariff truce itself runs through November 10th.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is going to be a very heavy corporate earnings week around the world. OPEC+ meets on production output Sunday. And we would note there are virtually no major central bank speeches this coming week aside from Fed Governor Lisa Cook's speech in Alaska on Wednesday.

In the US, the major economic report of the week will be the July jobs report out on Friday. Also, out this week in the US are the July ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the JOLTS report on Tuesday, the ADP report and ISM services index on Wednesday, and Q2 productivity reports on Thursday.

In Asia this week, China's private July PMI report is out on Monday, as is the July manufacturing report. Markets will also get China's July trade data on Friday. The Bank of Japan releases minutes from its June meeting on Wednesday, and markets will also get June labor cash earnings on Wednesday and household spending on Friday.

Finishing up in Europe, Germany releases retail sales and PMIs (Monday), factory orders and PMIs (Wednesday), industrial production Thursday, and trade data (Friday). Aside from that, it is a quiet week in Europe.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 2, 2026

Global

· The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting takes place to evaluate and decide output targets.

Americas

· Political/Social Events –

· Talks between Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodríguez's interim government and the 2015 National Assembly (led by Dinorah Figuera) begin this weekend, aimed at rebuilding democratic institutions and eventually setting a path to elections.

· Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australia’s royal Air Force will host Exercise Pitch Black, military air combat drills involving 20 countries, through Aug. 7th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Artificial Intelligence Act full provisions come into force.

· North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

· Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 3, 2026

Global

· Danish Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, Permanent Representative of Denmark to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month of August, will give a briefing on the Dane’s policy priorities.

Americas

· Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representatives are out of session until September 1st. The US Senate goes out for their August recess this coming Friday.

· The USS George Washington carrier group will conclude its port of call to Da Nang, Vietnam. This was a rare visit for a US Naval ship (only the fourth time since the US and Vietnam reestablished relations in 1995). It was meant to signal reassurances to Vietnam of the importance of the relationship of the two nations and to signal to China the US’ intention to remain a major military factor in the region.

· In California, a court hearing is scheduled to take place as part of a lawsuit brought by 12 states (led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta), attempting to prevent the merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros Discovery. The states argue that the move would “extinguish competition” and lead to fewer choices and higher prices for consumers due to the new company’s significant market power. Paramount has said the states’ case is “without merit”

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canadian financial markets are closed for the Civic Holiday.

· Mexico Business Confidence (July)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ISM Manufacturing Employment (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (July)/Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (July)

· EARNINGS: Palantir, Marriott, Clorox, Snap, Tyson Foods

Asia

· Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam’s 16th National Assembly will convene in its first extraordinary session through August 24th in Hanoi. Lawmakers will deliberate on 33 total agenda items, aiming to pass 15 draft laws and 4 resolutions while reviewing major national infrastructure and policy initiatives. These include deciding on investment policies for the Ring Road 5 project in the Hanoi capital region and adjustments for the Lao Cai–Hanoi–Hai Phong railway project. Additionally, they will consider resolutions for renewable energy project bottlenecks, matters concerning the Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Plant project, and the integration of four national target programs into a single framework.

· Thai Prime Minister Anutin is scheduled to have a two-day visit to Indonesia. He and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto are expected to tighten cooperation on several areas such as security, transnational crime, trade and investment, food and energy security, and people-to-people relations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (June)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (July)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/Balance of Trade (July)/Foreign Direct Investment (July)/Industrial Production July)/Inflation Rate (July)/Retail Sales (July)/Tourist Arrivals (July)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (July)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· EARNINGS: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Daiwa Securities, Itochu, Nissan, WuXi AppTec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Joint Summer Congress of CIOR, CIOMR, and CISOR takes place in Bucharest, Romania through August 7th. (CIOR: Interallied Confederation of Reserve Officers, CIOMR: Interallied Confederation of Reserve Medical Officers, CISOR: Interallied Confederation of Reserve Non-Commissioned Officers).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Retail Sales (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (June)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)/PPI (July)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)

Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Canada, the Foreign Influence Transparency and Accountability Act (FITAA) enters into force. The new law creates a new publicly accessible registry to bring transparency to foreign influence activities directed at Canadian political and governmental processes, and potentially impacting companies operating in Canada that have a connection to a foreign state. The Act applies broadly to individuals and entities that have arrangements with a foreign principal to influence a political or government process in Canada.

· Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington State, and Virginia hod congressional primary elections. The Democratic Senate primary race is shaping up to likely be a major indicator as to whether Democrats might take control of the US Senate in November – and in many respects, what the future of the Democratic Party looks like. Democratic Socialists Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is pitted against Representative Haley Stevens in a tough battle for the Democratic nomination. El-Sayed is up in several polls over Stevens. But most observers believe if El-Sayed wins, he cannot beat the Republican nominee, former Representative Mike Rogers. Additionally, El-Sayed and Stevenson are at strong odds over US policy toward Israel should be, with El-Sayed questioning Israel’s right to exist and accusing Stevens of being in Israel’s back pocket.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August)/01/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ Factory Orders (June)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (June)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (August)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/31)/Total Vehicle Sales (July)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Colombia Exports (June)

· EARNINGS: SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, Merck & Co., Amgen, McDonald’s, Gilead Sciences, Phizer, Spotify, Cummins, Marathon Petroleum, Apollo, Archer Daniel Midland, Booking Holdings, Caterpillar, Diamondback Energy, Duke Energy, Emerson Electric, Gilead Sciences, Kimberly-Clark, Marathon Petroleum, SpaceX, Spotify, Suncor, Sysco

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (July)

· Japan Monetary Base

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)/ Household Spending (June)/ Commodity Prices (July)

· Thailand Business Confidence (July)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/Wholesale Prices (July)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (June)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (July)

· EARNINGS: Toyota, Mitsubishi Heavy Industry, Mitsui & Co., Grab

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In London, members of the App Drivers and Couriers Union to protest outside the London offices of self-driving vehicle business Waymo, opposing the rollout of the company’s driverless cars across the British capital.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Spain New Car Sales (July)/Unemployment Change (July)

· Italy New Car Registrations (July)/Retail Sales (June)

· Romania PPI (June)

· France Budget Balance (June)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

· UK New Conventional Gilt 2032

· EARNINGS: HSBC, BP, Bayer, Domino’s Pizza (UK), Hugo Boss, Lufthansa, Saudi Aramco, Smith & Nephew, Travis Perkins

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The US and Lebanon are scheduled to hold the next round of US-mediated talks in Rome, Italy over the future of Israeli forces in Lebanon and the Lebanese Army disarming Hezbollah.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon PPI (June)

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)/S&P Global PMI (July)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Global

· The BRICS Education Track Meetings take place through August 7th in New Delhi. Education Ministers from BRICS member states will gather to discuss educational policy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia celebrates Independence Day.

· Tennessee holds statewide primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation 2026 Economic Luncheon in Anchorage, Alaska.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/31)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/31)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/31)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/31)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/31)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services Business Activity (July)/ ISM Services Employment (July)/ ISM Services New Orders (July)/ ISM Services Prices (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/31)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (May))/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Columbia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· EARNINGS: Eli Lilly, SanDisk, Western Digital, Walt Disney, Shopify, Uber, CVS Health, McKesson, Infineon, Phillis 66, DoorDash, Honeywell Aerospace, Occidental Petroleum, eBay, Kraft Heinz, Block, Brookfield Asset Management, Carlye Group, Honeywell Aerospace, Iron Mountain, Manulife Financial, Motorola, Next, the New York Times Company, News Corp, Prudential Financial,

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan will hold its annual Han Kuang military exercises through Aug. 14th. The drills will test relocating weapons production lines and converting civilian factories for military use ‌in annual drills next month, aiming to sustain combat operations if Chinese attacks hit supply hubs.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· New Zealand Employment Change/ Unemployment Rate/ Labour Costs Index/ Labour Costs Index/ Participation Rate/Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/04)

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (July)/ Ai Group Construction Index (July)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/S&P Global Services PMI (July)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/BoJ JGB Purchase

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (July)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (July)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (July)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (July)

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ HSBC Composite PMI (July)/ HSBC Services PMI (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July/31)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· EARNINGS: Cathy Pacific, Honda, Suzuki Motor

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· France New Car Registrations (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)

· Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

· UK New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)

· Serbia PPI (July)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· EARNINGS: Novo Nordisk, Siemens Energy, Glencore, Fresenius, Sandoz, Deutsche Post, Ibstock, Legal & General, Royal London, Thompson Reuters

Middle East

· Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UAE S&P Global PMI (July)

Africa

· Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

Thursday, August 6, 2026

Global

· The 2nd BRICS Anti-Corruption Working Group meeting takes place in Hyderabad, India through August 5th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia’s President Rodrigo Paz to deliver his first State of the Nation address.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Center for Public Policy Debate (CDPP) in Brazil.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/01)/ Nonfarm Productivity/ Unit Labour Costs/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/01)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/31)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/06)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/06)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/05)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (July)

· Canada S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)

· Columbia PPI (July)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: ConocoPhillips, Constellation Energy, Cloudflare, Datadog, Airbnb, Warner Brothers Discover, Liberty Media, Lyft, MetLife, Petrobas, Ralph Lauren, Rocket Companies

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing is scheduled to visit Thailand. The Myanmar leader is set to meet Anutin to seek ways to tackle pollution in the Kok River, a tributary of the Mekong that runs 285 kilometers through Myanmar and northern cities in Thailand. The two leaders are also expected to discuss cross-border trade and regional security issues.

· Today is the anniversary of the first atomic bomb used in war on Hiroshima in 1945.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (June)

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/01)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Private House Approvals (June)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

· EARNINGS: SoftBank, Nintendo

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (July)

· Germany Factory Orders (June)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

· Romania Retail Sales (June)

· Hungary Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· France Private Non-Farm Payrolls/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

· Spain Industrial Production (June)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)

· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

· UK S&P Global Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/31)

· EARNINGS: Siemens, DBS, Deutsche Telekom, Zurich Insurance, Generali, Merck KgaA, Rheinmetall, Swiss Re, Diageo, Commerzbank, Swisscom, Sempra, WPP

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, August 7, 2026

Global

· New York Federal Reserve’s World Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (July)/ FAO Food Price Index (July)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Abelardo de la Espriella will be sworn in as Colombia’s new president. However, since outgoing President Petro is refusing to allow the inauguration in the capital, Bogotá, because he is still refusing to acknowledge the election outcome, the swearing-in will take place in Cali. There will be a heavy international attendance including Spain's King Felipe VI, Argentine President Javier Milea, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, Paraguayan President Santiago Peña, Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Petro and allied political parties are saying they won't attend and instead are organizing demonstrations in Cali, which is a political stronghold of theirs.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Barkin speaks at National Association for Business Economics event.

· Chile Inflation Rate (July)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI

· Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Full Time Employment Chg (July)/ Part Time Employment Chg (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Wages (July)/ Ivey PMI s.a (July)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Earnings (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Weekly Hours (July)/ Government Payrolls (July)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (July)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (July)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (July)/ Used Car Prices (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/07)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)

· Brazil Car Production (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

· Argentina Industrial Production (June)

· EARNINGS: AIG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· New Zealand's regulated three-month election period will begin ahead of November polls.

· The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency is set to launch an H3 rocket.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

· Philippines GDP Growth Rate

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (July)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Property Price Index

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· India Bank Loan Growth (July/24)/ Deposit Growth (July/24)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/31)

· EARNINGS: Japan Post Bank, Kosan, UOB, OCBC

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· UK Lloyds House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (July)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Unemployment Rate

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Greece Balance of Trade (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (July)

· EARNINGS: Allianz, Munich Re, Banca Monte Dei Pashi di Siena

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Saturday, August 8, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Hawaii holds statewide primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (July)

· Kazakhstan Current Account

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Sunday, August 9, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Singapore, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

August 7 – Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is sworn into office.
August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.
September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.
September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.
September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.
October 4: Brazil holds general elections.
October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.
October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.
November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.
November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.
December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Francis Kelly 7/30/26 Francis Kelly 7/30/26

The Global Week Ahead

Markets Struggle to Understand Where the US-Iran War is Heading, Funeral for Senator Graham Brings World Leaders to Washington, Fujimori Becomes Peru’s President, and a Big Week for Central Banks and Earnings

July 26 - August 2, 2026

Markets are going into this week struggling to understand the trajectory and future implications of the US-Iran War. Several new and significant turns have taken place in the last few days that are changing the complexion of the war. The first being Houthi forces in Yemen, at the behest of Iran, attacked two Saudi oil tankers on July 23rd in the Red Sea with a combination of missiles and drones following a declaration they were imposing a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia overall - which followed a Saudi air attack on Sanaa, Yemen, which appeared to be targeting Iranian military advisors and senior Houthi military leaders. Overall, more than a dozen ships have been attacked in and around the Red Sea/Hormuz corridor since July 6th. And in the last 24 hours, Houthis have fired missiles at a Saudi Aramco oil refinery inside Saudi Arabia.

The second event happened Saturday (July 25th) and, for the first time, merged the US-Iran War with the Ukraine War when Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against an Iranian cargo ship and an Iranian naval vessel in the Caspian Sea. Ukrainian officials said the cargo ship was carrying drone and missile components bound for Iran and that Kyiv considers such cargo "legitimate military targets." Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires, calling it a "hostile and criminal act" and that it was done "at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war." Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has been on calls with Russia's Lavrov and the EU's Kallas about a response, saying it "cannot go unanswered." This coincided with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remarking that Kyiv had noted Russia was passing on its satellite observations in the Middle East to Iran to enable it to direct strikes ⁠in the region.

If there is any good news coming out of the US-Iran War, it is that there were no attacks launched by either the US or Iran the last two nights. It appears this is the result of a new round of negotiations between Iran and Oman from which there are reports of “progress.”

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates during the course of the week. We had several meetings and discussions with regional and local bank presidents in the Midwest this past week. We came away seeing a significantly heightened sense of anxiety and concern over economic conditions. The fears are three-fold: 1) the unpredictability of when hostilities might end with Iran which is causing oil prices – especially diesel prices – and spike, 2) Rising risk the Federal Reserve may feel compelled to raise interest rates this week, and 3) President Trump imposing yet another round of tariffs – ranging from 10% to 12.5% - on 60 major trading partners while threatening new 50% tariffs on Canada in retaliation for wildfires burning in Canada.

Washington will see a remarkable and sad event this week: The funeral of Senator Lyndsey Graham (R-SC). President Trump is scheduled to give the eulogy, and several world leaders are traveling to Washington to attend the service. Among them are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Both leaders will meet with Trump separately at the White House.

Zelenskyy is hoping to find a way to revive peace talks with Russia, but for now, Russia does not seem interested in pursuing a new peace track. Ukrainian long-range drone strikes and missile strikes have been causing considerable damage to Russian military and energy facilities as well as logistical targets (including nine Wildberries facilities – Wildberries is Russia's largest e-commerce platform and considered the Amazon of Russia).

Peru will inaugurate Keiko Fujimori as the country's new president – the country's10th president since 2016 – after winning the race by less than 50,000 votes. It was Fujimori's fourth presidential bid. Her win, alongside Abelardo de la Espriella's in Colombia and José Antonio Kast's in Chile, is being read as part of a broader regional shift toward the conservative wing in Latin America — a reversal from the Chávez/Lula-era left tilt.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, this will be a particularly busy week. Three major central bank meetings are taking place alongside a heavy data release schedule and a cascade of corporate earnings reports.

Breaking it down, in the US, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets this week. While the Fed is likely to keep rates on hold, there has been a clear rise in market chatter suggesting a possible hike, creating a somewhat jittery market (as alluded to above in our meetings with bank presidents). We are firmly with the consensus that they will hold. Also, this week the PCE Index – which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – is out Friday. It comes after the Conference Board's consumer confidence index on Tuesday, Q2 US GDP release on Thursday, and the PCE on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday on interest rates. We are in consensus that they are likely to hold rates. Also out on Friday will be the July Tokyo CPI, June retail sales, labor market data, housing start data, and industrial production figures. China releases June industrial profits on Monday and July PMIs on Friday.

Europe also has a busy week. The Bank of England meets on Thursday to decide on interest rates – also likely to hold. The German Ifo Survey is out on Monday, and July CPIs for Germany and Spain are out on Thursday and for Italy and France on Friday.

Finally, the corporate earnings schedule is massive this week, led by several major global tech and financial firms.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will visit the United States, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Germany through Aug. 3rd.
Today the Maldives celebrate Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Israel Manufacturing Production (May)
Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)
Africa

Political/Social Events –

Liberia celebrates Independence Day.
The 18th U.S.-Africa Business Summit begins in Mauritius and runs through July 29th. The theme of the summit is “Advancing New Frontiers in U.S.-Africa Prosperity,” and there is expected to be more than 2,500 participants, including numerous African heads of state, senior US government officials, and CEOs.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 27, 2026

Global

The UN Security Council will meet on the situation in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

President Trump travels to Michigan to deliver remarks on the economy.
The US Senate is likely to hold a procedural vote on Director of National Intelligence nominee Jay Clayton.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is expected to brief senior Trump Administration officials and members of Congress on the latest AI models.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
Mexico Balance of Trade (June)
USA Durable Goods Orders (June)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp (June)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (June)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (June)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)
Canada BoC Market Participants Survey
EARNINGS: Baker Hughs, Whirlpool, Rambus, Nucor

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his annual State of the Nation address to Congress. Over the past year, public discourse across the country has been consumed by the high-stakes impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, infrastructure corruption scandals, and persistent economic strain.
Legislative assembly elections begin in Pakistan-controlled Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

The economic surveillance unit AMRO (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office) will present its assessment of the region and provide updated growth and inflation forecasts for economies in Southeast Asia as well as China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. It will examine key risks and challenges affecting the regional outlook as the U.S.-Iran war drags on.
China’s fashion retailer Shein files for its IPO.
Singapore Monetary Policy Statement
China Industrial Profits (June)
Japan Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)
Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)
Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

EU finance ministers meet in Brussels for an ECOFIN budget session.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with State Duma (parliament) members to discuss current legislative work

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Ireland Consumer Confidence (July)
Euro Area Loans to Companies (June)/ Loans to Households (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)
Germany Ifo Business Climate (July)/ Ifo Current Conditions (July)/ Ifo Expectations (July)
Slovenia Business Confidence (July)
Greece Total Credit (June)
UK CBI Distributive Trades (July)
EARNINGS: LVMH, AstraZeneca, Audi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to an open debate on the Middle East with particular focus on Palestinian affairs. Deputy Special Coordinator Ramiz Alakbarov is expected to brief the council, with High Representative of the Board of Peace to Gaza Nickolay Mladenov.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

President Donald Trump is set to give a tribute at the funeral service of US Senator Lindsey Graham in Washington at the National Cathedral.
President Trump is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington. Netanyahu is in Washington for the memorial service of the late Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Interestingly, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid will also attend the memorial and meet with US members of Congress while in Washington (The Israeli elections are set for October 27th, the first elections since October 7, 2023).
Trump will then meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House (Zelenskyy is also in Washington for the Graham memorial service).
Peru’s President-elect Keiko Fujimori is sworn into office after winning June's runoff by fewer than 50,000 votes. This was Fujimori’s fourth presidential bid. Her inauguration will have a number of right-leaning regional guests including Argentina's President Javier Milei, Chile's President José Antonio Kast, and Panama's President José Raúl Mulino, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. And Spanish King Felipe VI is likely to attend, as well. Argentinian President Javier Milei will continue to Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia for meetings.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will visit Argentina through July 29th.
South Dakota holds first-ever runoff in Republican gubernatorial primary runoff. The run-off was triggered by a quirky 1985 state law that states that if no candidate in a governor, U.S. Senate, or U.S. House primary clears 35% of the vote, the top two finishers go to a runoff eight weeks later. South Dakota is the only state with this 35% threshold rule.
Special election in Georgia's 13th Congressional District following the death of Representative David Scott (D).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.
Brazil Current Account (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (July)
USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (June)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (June)/ Redbook (July/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Money Supply (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/24)
Chile Interest Rate Decision
EARNINGS: Boeing, UPS, Visa, Ford, Coca-Cola ASM, Mondelez, PayPal, Boeing, Corning, JetBlue, Royal Caribbean, Visa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

The China International Game Developers Conference (CGDC) begins in Shanghai and runs through July 30th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch in Sydney.
South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)
Tawain Consumer Confidence (July)
Malaysia PPI (June)
India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)
EARNINGS: Singapore Air

Europe

Political/Social Events –

There will be an informal meeting of EU Fisheries Ministers through July 29th in Cork, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (July)/ Conventional Gilt
France Consumer Confidence (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)
Spain Unemployment Rate/ Retail Sales (June)
Slovenia Retail Sales (June)
EARNINGS: Mercedes, GSK, Barclays, Kering, Air Liquide, Orange, Safran, Essilor Luxottica, Man Group, Unilever, LVMH, Michelin

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Israel Unemployment Rate (June)
Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Business Council holds the 9th Industrialization Week in Durban, South Africa through July 31st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on SCR 2745 sanctions. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies before the Senate Homeland Security & Government Affairs Committee. Committee Chairman Rand Paul subpoenaed Fauci last month after Fauci declined to appear voluntarily. The panel plans to question him about whether he lied to Congress during the pandemic about whether his office funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Paul has said he wants to ask whether Fauci funded gain-of-function research while telling Congress he hadn't, why certain records were destroyed, and why he sought a presidential pardon. Paul has also claimed declassified documents show Fauci "personally shaped" what the intelligence community told the public about COVID's origins, with 18 agencies relying on his guidance. Fauci received a preemptive pardon from President Biden covering "certain" past federal conduct tied to his government role. Commentators note that the pardon doesn't protect him from lying now — any false testimony in this hearing would be new conduct outside the pardon's scope — which is part of why this hearing is being watched closely regarding whether he might invoke the Fifth Amendment.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces its interest rate decision. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations released
USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/24)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/24)
Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)
EARNINGS: Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, General Dynamics, Qualcomm, SoFi, Boston Scientific, ADP, Humana, Procter & Gamble, Robinhood, Qualcomm

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Japan’s newly created Intelligence Bureau begins operations. Japan is standing up its first centralized intelligence apparatus since World War II, replacing the existing Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office (CIRO) with two new bodies: 1.) The National Intelligence Council (NIC) — the top command-and-decision layer, chaired personally by PM Sanae Takaichi, with 10 members. Its first meeting is set for July 31st, and 2.) The National Intelligence Bureau (NIB) — the operational arm, tasked with gathering, integrating, and analyzing intelligence across government. It'll be led by Kazuya Hara, a former senior police official currently serving as director of Cabinet intelligence. Budget is roughly $407 million, with hiring focused on cybersecurity specialists, software engineers, and liaison officers. Full operations are expected by December. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has framed the launch of the new intelligence service as "a first step" in a broader effort to unwind postwar constitutional restrictions on Japan's security posture, alongside her push for arms-export liberalization. What is driving all this is growing awareness in Japan of increased (and more aggressive) Chinese, Russian, and North Korean activity - as recently reported in the New York Times that dozens of Russian intelligence operatives have relocated to Japan in recent years to source and reroute sanctioned weapons components.
Today, Wallis and Futuna Territory Day is observed, marking the islands’ 1961 transition to a French Overseas Territory.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Australia Inflation Rate (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (June)/ CPI (June)/ Quarterly Inflation Rate/ Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (June)/
Singapore Import/Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)
Japan BoJ JGB Purchase
EARNINGS: SK Hynix, Nomura, Arm, CPKC

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Italy Private Sector Credit (June)/ Industrial Sales (May)
Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (July)
UK BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Approvals (June)/ Mortgage Lending (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)
Greece Unemployment Rate (June)
Ireland GDP Growth Rate
Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Corporate Profits (May)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)
Germany Import Prices (June)
EARNINGS: Aston Martin, Rio Tinto, Airbus, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered, BASF, Eni, L’Oreal, Airbus, Danone, Hermes, Remy Cointreau, Aberdeen, Aston Martin Lagonda, Glencore, Pirelli, Porsche, Electrolux

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Mine ENTRA 2026 Conference begins in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe and runs through July 31st. The conference brings together major mining, engineering, and transport leaders to discuss critical mineral extraction and export flows.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)
Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Global

The UN Security Council holds the first straw poll on nominees to be the next Secretary-General. It is a secret straw poll to determine which candidates have enough support to stay in the race, with the fifteen members currently discussing six candidates. In successive rounds, council members will be asked to indicate for each candidate whether they are "encouraged," "discouraged," or express "no opinion," repeating the process until a clear frontrunner emerges. There are currently four formal candidates: Michelle Bachelet, Rafael Grossi, Rebeca Grynspan, and Macky Sall.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The US Senate Judiciary Committee votes on Todd Blanche’s nomination to be Attorney General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Net Payrolls (June)
Mexico GDP Growth Rate/ Fiscal Balance (June)
Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)
USA PCE Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv/ Personal Income (June)/ Personal Spending (June)/ GDP Price Index Adv/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/25)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/18)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ PCE Prices Adv/ GDP Sales Adv/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/25)/ PCE Prices Adv/ Real Consumer Spending Adv/ Real Personal Spending (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/24)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/29)
Columbia Business Confidence (June)
EARNINGS: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Coinbase, Bristol Meyers Squibb, Valero, Altria, Stellantis, Blue Owl, Huntsman, Reddit, Canada Goose, Hershey

Asia

Political/Social Events –

The island nation of Vanuatu celebrates its Independence Day.
The Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show runs through Aug. 9, with a plug-in hybrid electric car announced earlier this year by China's BYD likely to be the highlight of the show. Auto industry players will be watching for hints on whether BYD will become a serious rival to Japanese automakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Barrenjoey Economics Forum in Sydney.
South Korea Business Confidence (July)
Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/25)/ Consumer Confidence (July)
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)
Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)
Australia Building Permits (June)/ Import/Export Prices/ Private House Approvals (June)/ RBA Hunter Speech
Singapore Unemployment Rate
Thailand Industrial Production (June)
EARNINGS: Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic, Keppel

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates. Additionally, the BoE releases its summary of monetary policy and minutes of the committee meeting.
UK Car Production (June)/
France GDP Growth Rate/ Household Consumption (June)
Romania Unemployment Rate (June)
Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate
Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)
Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)
Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)
Germany GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)
Italy GDP Growth Rate/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ PPI (June)
Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)
Greece PPI (June)
Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)
Ukraine Interest Rate Decision
Russia GDP (June)
EARNINGS: Shell, Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic Yum! Brands, TataSteel, ArcelorMittal, Societe Generale, British American Tobacco, BAE Systems, Renault, ING, Lloyds Banking Group, Air France-KLM, Heidelberg Materials, Stellantis, Rolls-Royce, Adidas, Prada, BMW, Renault, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Ferrari, Anglo-America, BAE Systems, Lloyds, London Stock Exchange, Rolls Royce, Prada, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

South Africa PPI (June)

Friday, July 31, 2026

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

President Trump will hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David.
National Governors Association summer meeting begins in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and runs through August 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ PPI (June)
Canada GDP (May)/ GDP (June)/ Budget Balance (May)/ Budget Balance (April)
USA Employment Cost - Benefits / Employment Cost - Wages/ Employment Cost Index/ Chicago PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (July)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/31)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/31)
Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
Columbia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)
Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)
Peru Inflation Rate (July)
EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, AutoNation, AbbVie, Magna, Moderna

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (July)
Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ PPI/ Housing Credit (June)/ PPI/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (July)
South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ Tokyo CPI (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)/ BoJ Gov Ueda Speech
China NBS Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS General PMI (July)
Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Business Confidence
Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)
Thailand Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption (June)/ Private Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (July)
Philippines Business Confidence (June)
Taiwan DP Growth Rate Adv
Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv
Sri Lanka Inflation Rate July)
India Government Budget Value (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)/ M3 Money Supply (July/15)
EARNINGS: Sony, JERA, Maruti Suzuki

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill and BoE Director of Monetary Analysis Fergal Shortall will give a virtual National Agency briefing.
Ireland Retail Sales (June)
Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)
UK Nationwide Housing Prices (July)
Hungary PPI (June)
Switzerland Retail Sales (June)
France Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)
Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Tourism Revenues/ Tourist Arrivals (June)
Poland Inflation Rate (July)
Italy Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)
Spain Current Account (May)
Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)
Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (July)/ CPI Flash (July)
Greece Retail Sales (May)
Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
Ukraine Current Account (June)
EARNINGS: Credit Agricole, EDF, Axa, Engie, Puma, OMV, Pearson, Taylor Wimpey

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

South Africa Budget Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Global

Denmark assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

The current interim Venezuelan government will begin formal talks with Venezuela’s US-backed opposition. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has framed the overall US approach to negotiations and move toward eventual elections as a three-phase plan: political stabilization, economic recovery, transition. However, the devastating late-June earthquakes (5,000+ dead, ~$37bn in damage per UN estimates) have added urgency as reconstruction financing is seen as contingent on political certainty.
Complicating the situation further is the fact thatthe opposition itself is split — Dinorah Figuera, who headed the 2015 National Assembly, which is the last assembly formally recognized by the US Government, has pointedly distanced herself from Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, who's running a separate, parallel initiative on the transition question.
Guam holds primary elections for the US House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate/ PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Today is Switzerland National Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Russia M2 Money Supply (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Benin celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (July)

Sunday, August 2, 2026

Global

The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting takes place to evaluate and decide output targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The full provisions of the EU Artificial Intelligence Act come into force.

North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.
July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.

· August 7 – Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is sworn into office.

August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.
September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.
September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.
September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.
October 4: Brazil holds general elections.
October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.
October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.
November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.
November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.
December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Francis Kelly 7/24/26 Francis Kelly 7/24/26

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The House is Gone Until September, The CLARITY Act is On a Knife’s Edge, The CFPB is a Step Closer to Having a New Director, and DoJ’s Antitrust Division Streamlines Merger Reviews

July 27 - 31, 2026

Washington is quickly going quiet in advance of the traditional August recess. The House of Representatives is now gone until September 7th, and the Senate is here for two more weeks before leaving for its August recess.

The House was able to vote on two major bills before they left, including a “clean” Continuing Resolution (CR) to extend current funding levels for the federal government through December 4th. It is highly unusual for Congress to move so early in the year on a CR, but with the very limited legislative calendar between now and the November midterms (by our count, 15 days), House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) decided it would be better to err on the side of caution and avoid a government shutdown just before the elections.

While the Senate is highly unlikely to approve the House version, negotiations between the House and Senate have already begun in the hope that the House and Senate can vote on a compromise in September before the end of the fiscal year, thereby avoiding a shutdown.

The other major bill the House voted on before leaving is a new Reconciliation bill – the 3rd reconciliation bill of this Congress. While the majority of the bill is focused on defense and intelligence spending ($73 billion combined), there is also $12 billion for farm relief and assistance programs for farmers.

With that in mind, there are still several financial services-related bills hoping to reach the finish line before the midterm elections. Perhaps the biggest is the landmark crypto bill – the CLARITY Act – which is hung up in the Senate despite months of bipartisan negotiations.

This past week, a new revised version - 616 pages long - was unveiled. But that giant THUD! sound you might have heard was the Democrats’ reaction to it. The biggest issue is that they are not happy with the bill’s ethics provisions aimed at policing the involvement of senior politicians and government employees. For Senate Democrats looking at President Trump’s family crypto business, this is a “Must Do/Must Have” issue. But the White House has strongly opposed all Democratic proposals on the issue – and without Democrats’ support, we think the bill will end up dying this year. However, there are reports a last-minute bipartisan group of senators is working to come up with compromise ethics language – so, let’s see if that works before declaring the bill dead.

Also, this past week, the House voted on legislation restricting the ability of members of Congress and their families to buy and sell stocks. However, this bill is also on death’s door as House Republicans inserted a last-minute provision in the bill that is effectively the SAVE Act – the election reform measure President Trump is demanding that requires proof of citizenship and photo ID to register to vote in federal elections (and no way is going to pass in the Senate – so it either comes out of the bill or the whole bill dies in September).

Also, this past week, Brian Johnson, President Trump’s choice to run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), had his confirmation hearing in the Senate Banking Committee. Our guess is that there is a slim chance Johnson could be confirmed before the Senate leaves for the August recess, but more likely in September. The most interesting part of his confirmation hearing was that he refused to endorse efforts to eliminate the agency. Several Senate Republicans have been seeking either to close the agency or roll it up into another bank regulatory agency – something most observers thought the Trump Administration was aiming to do.

Meanwhile, over at the Justice Department, the Antitrust Division announced it intends to further revamp merger review guidelines, as well as present a new model timing agreement. All in all, the effort is aimed at substantially reducing what companies will be required to produce as part of the reviews.

Also of note, President Trump nominated Adam Candeub, the General Counsel of the Federal Communications Commission, to be the new Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust. He will fill the gap created when Gail Slater was fired as Assistant Attorney General last year.

Looking ahead, it is going to be very quiet. No congressional hearings, no major regulatory meetings, and no speeches by Fed Governors or other major regulators.

Below and attached is our report on financial regulatory-related events for the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

There are no pertinent hearings scheduled in the Senate this coming week.

House of Representatives

The House is in August recess until September 1st.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

·Tuesday & Wednesday, July 28 & 29 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets on interest rates. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on July 29th.

Conferences –

No events are scheduled as the Federal Reserve is in its Quiet Period in advance of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this coming week.

U.S. Treasury Department

·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·Thursday, July 30, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Wednesday, July 29, 1:00 p.m. The CFTC’s Agricultural Advisory Committee (AAC), will hold its first meeting of 2026 at CFTC Headquarters in Washington, D.C. Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) will attend the meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Wednesday, July 29, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled “North American Trade at a Crossroads.”
Wednesday, July 29, 8:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2026 Tax Conference in New York.
Thursday, July 30, 1:00 p.m. – 4:45 p.m. – The American Bankers Association holds the Women Lead Symposium (virtual).

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Recommended Reading/Watching

Make IPOs Great Again: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins on Ending Regulation By Enforcement Uncommon Knowledge/Hoover Institution
America was an investment before it was a nation.” That idea anchors this video conversation between SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and Uncommon Knowledge host Peter Robinson. Atkins argues that vibrant capital markets are essential to American prosperity and explains why he believes excessive regulation has discouraged companies from going public and innovators from building in the United States. The discussion also covers crypto, disclosure rules, investor protection, and the role of free markets in driving economic growth.
Model Risk Managers See Growing Regulatory Divergence Risk Risk.Net
The first rewrite of US model risk supervisory guidance in 15 years has received a mixed reception from the banks whose frameworks it governs, a Risk.net study finds, even as two-thirds say they expect to revisit their materiality and tiering frameworks and nearly half to redraw the scope of their model definition entirely as a result. Just four of 22 banks tackling the question in Risk Benchmarking’s study deem SR 26-2, the revised interagency letter, issued in April, a significant step forward.
The Economics of Regulatory Reform Jeff Rosen/Yale Journal on Regulation
In April 2026, the White House Council of Economic Advisers issued the 2026 Economic Report of the President. Though seemingly not much noticed to date, Chapter 2 of that report is titled “Promoting Prosperity through Regulatory Reform”. the chapter reviews research on regulatory accumulation, and notes that the number of binding federal regulatory restrictions grew from roughly 400,000 in 1970 to more than 1.1 million in 2024, contributing to higher compliance costs and slower economic growth. It cites one study estimating that the expansion of the administrative state reduced annual GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points between 1980 and 2012, implying that the economy would be nearly 25 percent larger today—about $5.4 trillion in additional output—absent that regulatory surge.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 7/23/26 Francis Kelly 7/23/26

The Global Week Ahead

The US-Iran Further War Escalates, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet, Britain Gets a New Prime Minister as IMF Issues Warning, Lebanon’s President Travels to Meet Trump, Trump’s Tariffs Set to Expire, and the ECB and PBoC Meet on Interest Rates

July 19 - 26, 2026

Fighting between the US and Iran is likely to further escalate in the coming week as the fragile cease-fire brokered last month is declared “functionally dead." Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Sunday that President Trump’s signature on the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was ‘worthless and unreliable.” And an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran has “no plans for negotiations.”

US attacks on Iranian military positions and infrastructure significantly ramped up this weekend following an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan, killing three US servicemen, and the killing of a US serviceman in Northern Iraq by an Iranian drone. Iranian missile and drone strikes have also hit US sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.

At this point, Iran’s rhetorical posture is now uniformly rejectionist across the Supreme Leader's office, Iran's negotiating team, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry — a marked shift from the ambiguity and disunity heard in early July. The best bet for a return to a ceasefire and a possible return to the negotiating table is via Omani and Pakistani diplomatic efforts. Still, for now, those efforts are falling on deaf ears in Tehran.

Adding to tensions in the region, the Saudi-Houthi truce that has been in effect since 2022 may now be breaking down, threatening a second war front in the Gulf region. The truce began unraveling on July 13th when air strikes by Yemen's internationally recognized government (seen as being backed and assisted by Saudi Arabia) blocked an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthis delegation, which included Iranian military experts, from landing in Sanaa, Yemen, which is under control of the Houthis. The Houthis retaliated by firing missiles at the Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia.

Markets will also be watching Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's visit to Washington to meet with President Trump. This is Aoun's first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as President, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009.

The White House is hoping to bolster Aoun's efforts to help de-escalate Israeli-Hezbollah fighting in southern Lebanon and begin moving on a plan to disarm Hezbollah fighters (something Hezbollah leaders adamantly refuse to do). The Trump-Aoun meeting could also result in an announcement of new investment funding to help rebuild the beleaguered country following years of war.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers will be gathering in Manila, the Philippines, this week. Joining them will be US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, Japan, and the UK. The meeting will focus on hammering out a South China Sea code of conduct to cool tensions among China, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

But the real action may be on the sidelines as markets will be watching for any bilateral meetings between Rubio and Wang or between Rubio and Lavrov to discuss Ukraine peace talks. Additionally, Rubio and the foreign ministers of Japan, India, and Australia will hold a Quad meeting to discuss security issues of mutual concern.

In London, Andy Burnham will formally become the UK's new prime minister, the seventh prime minister the country has had since 2016. Burham is facing a host of economic challenges that were made tougher this week by the IMF warning against raising the top income tax rate, as it assesses that this will further hurt the economy. Burnham is seeking a way to offset rising energy costs in the wake of the Iran War.

Back here in Washington, the Trump Administration's 10% Section 122 tariffs are set to expire later this week. The President put these tariffs in place to replace the tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court earlier this year. Trump cannot renew the tariffs – only the US Congress can do that – but he can effectively do so by raising the rate to 15%, something he has said he intends to do. The rationale for the higher rates, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative, is that they will be human rights violations in more than 50 countries (see below for the full list of countries targeted). Also this week, Brazil gets its own, separate Section 301 25% tariffs imposed by President Trump.

Turning the global economic and financial radar screen, the big events this week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on rates and the People's Bank of China's decision on rates.

While the ECB meeting will dominate European market news, a few other important reports will be released this week. The UK releases labor figures on Tuesday and June CPI numbers on Wednesday. And the July ZEW surveys for Germany are out on Tuesday.

In Asia, aside from the PBoC interest rate announcement, Japan's trade balance is released on Wednesday, and the June CPI is released on Friday.

Here in the US, initial jobless claims are released on Thursday, and flash PMIs and new home sales are released on Friday. And Canada's June CPI is out on Monday, and May retail sales data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Global

· The World Cup Championship is played in New Jersey.

· Talks to develop rules on deep-sea mining continue at the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica through July 24th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines will host the 59th Association of Southeast Asian Nations Foreign Ministers' Meeting and related meetings in Manila through July 24th.

· Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul begins a two-day visit to Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Economic Community of West African States will hold the bloc's 69th Ordinary Summit of heads of state and government in Sierra Leone.

· São Tomé and Principe hold presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 20, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on Haiti, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu is set to visit Washington, D.C. (and possibly Miami, Florida) as a preparatory meeting for President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to the US in September.

· Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday. Outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to give a national speech calling for the mobilization supporters in opposition to the incoming government.

· The United States and Mexico will hold the third round of bilateral talks on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board is in a Quiet Period in advance of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meetings.

· Canada Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Common (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (June)/ CFIB Business Barometer (July)

· USA CB Leading Index (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months

· Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· EARNINGS: Dominos, Zions Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australia will host Exercise Pitch Black, military drills involving 20 countries, through Aug. 7.

· Today is Marine Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/ Loan Prime Rate 5Y (July)

· Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· India Infrastructure Output (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Andy Burnham is set to be sworn in as the UK’s new Prime Minister, becoming the country’s seventh premier since the 2016 Brexit vote. He will enter 10 Downing Street after meeting with King Charles. Burnham takes office just as the IMF issued a warning that the UK cannot boost public spending, something the new Prime Minister to do to deal with the energy shock caused by the Iran War.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Mario Draghi on competitiveness in Brussels. The meeting is a follow-up to Draghi’s landmark report last year detailing how and why the EU needs to streamline regulation and slash red tape.

· Romania's Parliament will hold an extraordinary session on legislation tied to the country's EU recovery funds, during which President Nicusor Dan aims to have a new government sworn in.

· There will be an informal of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Research and Innovation) through July 21st in Brussels.

· A delegation of EU Members of Parliament from the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will be in Washington D.C. this week to discuss the global economic and the geopolitical outlook, the US political agenda, and developments in the fields of banking and finance. They will meet members of the House of Representatives, officials from the Treasury, the IMF, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodities and Futures Exchange Commission. MEPs will also meet with representatives from think tanks and civil society organizations.

· The Farnborough International Airshow begins in Hampshire, England, with investors watching for major aircraft deals

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (June)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (June)/Employment Growth (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ PPI (June)

· Euro Area Construction Output (May)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (June)

· EARNINGS: Ryanair

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q2

· Jordon Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Commission’s Joint 9th Specialized Technical Committee (STC) on Finance, Monetary Affairs, Economic Planning and Integration begins in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Concurrently, the 5th STC on Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals runs through July 24th — this is the AU's main finance-and-trade ministerial track, relevant for AfCFTA implementation and critical minerals positioning.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. This is Aoun’s first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as president, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009. The White House is hoping to advance the June 26 framework agreement with Israel, with talks focusing on Israeli troop withdrawal and extending Lebanese state authority in the south. The meeting comes one week after the US, Israel, and Lebanese negotiators met in Rome where they agreed on a "pilot zones" arrangement. The White House is also hoping to publicly give Aoun US backing to strengthen his position at home, where Hezbollah rejects both the framework and disarmament. Aoun himself has called the framework "not ideal" but reflective of the balance of power and says he expects positive outcomes. Markets should watch to see if a withdrawal timeline is set for Hezbollah forces and any significant financing commitments for reconstruction of Lebanon.

· US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Joint Chiefs of Staff are scheduled to testify before the US Senate Appropriations Committee on the Administration’s requested $80 billion request for Iran War operations. The hearing will likely spill over into hard questions about war authorization from Congress (or the lack thereof), the status of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of Iran strikes on Gulf States and US military facilities based there.

· The US Intelligence Committee is expected to vote on the nomination of Jay Clayton to be the next Director of National Intelligence. A full Senate vote could come by the end of the week.

· Arizona holds a primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanael Benjamin speak at the OMFIF Conference in London.

· Mexico Retail Sales (May)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (July)/18/API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (July/17)

· Columbia Imports/Balance of Trade (May)/ SE Economic Activity (May)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (June)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (June)

· EARNINGS: Halliburton, Ally, Danaher, Charles Schwab, 3M, General Motors, MSCI, Alaska Air, EQT, CapitalOne, Equifax, Hasbro, Marsh & McClennan, Northrup Grumman, Novartis

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 59th ASEAN foreign ministers begins and runs through July 24th in Manila, the Philippines. The meeting will also see the foreign ministers of the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, Australia, Canada and the U.K in attendance as special guests. The agenda will cover the South China Sea Code of Conduct, which the Philippines hopes to see finalized but probably will not happen as many countries – especially China – have fundamental differences over what the deal should look like. Beijing has proposed banning joint military drills with countries outside Southeast Asia and restricting oil and gas exploration to intra-regional partnerships — poison pills for the Philippines and Vietnam. Other agenda items include an informal consultation on a Five-Point Consensus on what to do with Myanmar, and energy security and the Iran War economic impact on the region. On the sidelines of the meeting, a Quad (US/Japan/Australia/India) foreign ministers meeting with take place from the 20th to the 21st and a subsequent ministerial meeting to take place in Australia. Markets will be watching closely for any bilateral meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as well as how Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is received at the meeting.

· The Japanese Diet goes into an extended session in an effort to pass the secondary capital bill which would authorize the building of a backup city capable of assuming core government functions in the event of a major disaster. The bill is also designed to decentralize economic activity in and around Tokyo. Opposition parties have attacked the bill as biased toward the cities of Osaka and Ishin.

· Today is Liberation Day in Guam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q2

· Tawain Export Orders (June)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Members of the European Parliament from the Foreign Affairs Committee will travel to Beijing and Shanghai to discuss critical issues including Russia’s war against Ukraine, human rights, security challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and China's influence on supply chains. MEPs will raise other matters of common interest including multilateralism, climate diplomacy, and the international governance of AI. They will meet with, among others, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the leadership and foreign affairs committee of the National People's Congress.

· Today is National Day in Belgium, marking the date in 1831 when Leopold of Saxe-Coburg-Saalfeld took the oath as the first King of the Belgians.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

· UK Unemployment Rate (May)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Claimant Count Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (June)

· Greece Current Account (May)

· Spain Balance of Trade (May)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The US-Africa Energy Forum begins in Houston, Texas and runs through July 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international security: Natural resource governance: The foundation of peace, security and prosperity. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A status hearing is scheduled for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in his US narcoterrorism and drug trafficking case.

· US Section 301 tariffs on Brazil imports set at 25% go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/17)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/17)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/17)

· Argentina Economic Activity (May)

· EARNINGS: AT&T, GE Verona, Philip Morris, Pulte Group, Moody’s, Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, Texas Instruments, Kinder Morgan, Crown Castle, CSX, Chubb, Raymond James, Rogers Communications (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A delegation of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Taiwan is scheduled to travel to Washington, D.C. to meet with US government officials and members of Congress and leading think tanks. They will be in the US through July 26th. The delegation is led by Tsai Chi-chang who previously served as Commissioner of the Chinese Professional Baseball League. He will throw out the first pitch at the New York Mets game against the Los Angeles Dodgers and also meet with Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred in New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (June)

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (June)

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/21)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)/ Loan Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Tawain Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates.

· The European Commission’s provisional deadline for a decision on Paramount Skydance’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery.

· UK Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI Output (June)/ PPI Input (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

· Turkey Business Confidence (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)

· Poland Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ M3 Money Supply (June)/Retail Sales (June)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (June)

· Russia Industrial Production (June)/ PPI (June)

· EARNINGS: Alstom (FRA), AkzoNobel, Dassault Aviation, Moncler, Mulberry, Reach, ServiceNow, Banco Santander, Schindler

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (June)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security [SCR 2788 – peaceful settlement of disputes]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

· Candidates to be the next UN Secretary-General participate in a town hall at the UN General Assembly in New York. The candidates include former President of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet Jeria, Former President of the UN General Assembly María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés (Ecuador), Rafael Mariano Grossi (Argentina):, the current Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis (Costa Rica), Former Vice President of Costa Rica and Secretary-General of the UN Trade and Development, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (Guyana), the current Permanent Representative of Guyana to the UN, and Macky Sall (Senegal), Former President of Senegal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Office of the US Trade Representative holds a hearing to review which countries will be eligible for the 2027 renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade pact.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (June)

· Mexico Economic Activity (May)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (July)

· Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/18)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/11)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/18)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/17)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/22)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (June)

· EARNINGS: American Airlines, Huntington Bank, Freeport McMaRon, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, CEMEX, Tractor Supply, Intel, Newmont, Sallie Mae

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers is set to take place in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan through July 24th. The meeting will finalize the agenda and review documents for the upcoming SCO Council of Heads of State Summit taking place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, from August 31st to September 1st.

· The Wiki Finance Expo, billed as one of the biggest fintech events in Asia, kicks off in Hong Kong. The two-day conference is expected to attract over 12,000 attendees to hear hundreds of speakers and exhibitors talk about cryptocurrencies and other financial innovations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· Australia Employment Change (June)/ Full Time Employment Chg (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Part Time Employment Chg (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (June)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchase

· Singapore Inflation Rate (June)

· Philippines Budget Balance (June)

· Tawain Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

· China FDI (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU’s extension of the cap on Russian oil prices expires unless renewed.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through July 24th in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank concludes two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference.

· Euro Area New Car Registrations (June)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

· France Business Confidence (July)/ Business Climate Indicator (July)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (July)/ Overnight Lending Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (June)

· UK Conventional Gilt/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q3/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (July)

· EARNINGS: Nokia, BNP Paribas, Dassault Systemes, Carrefour, TotalEnergies (FRA), Unicredit (ITALY), Thales, T-Mobile, Roche, Nestlé, Kuehne+Nagel, Morgan Sindell, Heathrow, , Getlink, Centrica, Carrefour

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Egypt will observe Revolution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (May)/Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, July 24, 2026

Global

· The International Criminal Court members vote on whether to dismiss prosecutor Karim Khan for alleged sexual misconduct, which he denies.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s latest trade tariffs – set at 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (which he implemented after the Supreme Court in February struck down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – are set to expire. Only the US Congress can extend it. However, the tariffs can effectively be renewed by the President if he puts in new tariffs at a15% rate, which he has previously stated he intends to do. The US Trade Representative’s Office has been building the rationale for the new, higher rate under a forced-labor rationale, holding hearings earlier this month. The USTR announced they are focused on 54 countries which include: Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Australia, the Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Egypt, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Peru, the Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Türkiye, UAE, UK, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Six others — Canada, Ecuador, the EU, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan — have import prohibitions in their laws but were found by USTR to have failed to enforce them

· The Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercise begins off the coast of Hawaii. The three-month long military training event is the world’s largest maritime warfare exercise involves more than 30 surface ships, five submarines, 140 aircraft and more than 25,000 personnel from 31 different countries.

· President Donald Trump attends the rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (June)

· USA Building Permits (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ New Home Sales (June)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (July)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/24)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/24)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (June)/ PPI (June)/ Raw Materials Prices (June)/Wholesale Sales (June)

· Chile PPI (June)

· EARNINGS: Verizon, Charter Communications, American Express, Verizon, the Hartford Financial, , SLB, NextEra Energy, Booz Allen, HCA Healthcare, CN Railway (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

· Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (June)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/18)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/New Car Sales (June)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Index (May)

· India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/10)/ Deposit Growth (July/10)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)/M3 Money Supply (June/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Scottish city of Edinburgh institutes a visitor’s levy, taxing anyone visiting the city. City Councilors hope to raise more than £150 million annually from it.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in an on-stage conversation at the MacGill Summer School 2026 in Donegal, Ireland

· UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (July)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence AUG/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (June)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Spain PPI (June)

· France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ ECB Lane Speech

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 25, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina's President Javier Milei will travel to Brasilia, Brazil to attend the launch of right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign. Milei then will to Lima, Peru to attend the July 28th inauguration of President-elect Keiko Fujimori. From there he will go to Ecuador to see President Daniel Noboa going to Colombia to attend the August 7th inauguration in Colombia of President-elect Abelardo De La Espriella.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the Maldives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Russia celebrates Navy Day. Normally, there is a big parade in St. Petersburg but for the second year in a row, it has been cancelled because Ukrainian drone forces are capable of striking the city and the parade without Russian military forces being able to defend adequately against them.

The 113th Tour de France cycling race concludes today with the 21st and final stage ending up in Paris.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mauritius will host the U.S.-Africa Business Summit through July 29.

· Today is Independence Day in Liberia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· July 28: Keiko Fujimori is inaugurated President of Peru.

· July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.

· July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.

· August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election are held. All members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Francis Kelly 7/17/26 Francis Kelly 7/17/26

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Senate Banking Holds Confirmation Hearing for a New CFPB Director, Prediction Markets Get A Hard Look in the House, and CFPB Close to New Consumer Financial Data Rule

July 20 - 24, 2026

Capitol Hill may be enveloped in a thick smoky haze from wildfires up north, but key congressional committees are still gearing up for a busy week next week. The Senate Banking Committee is holding a confirmation hearing this coming Thursday for President Trump’s third nominee to serve as Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Brian Johnson.

The previous two nominees were Jonathan McKiernan (who was instead nominated to serve as Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance, a role he held until last week)and Stuart Levenbach (whose nomination was yanked to make him Chair of the Interagency Council on Statistical Policy).

Johnson has a strong background in financial regulation. He is a former senior bank lawyer who later served at the CFPB in 2017. He then went to work at Patomak Global Partners, a strategy/risk management/regulatory affairs consultancy founded by current SEC Chair Paul Atkins. Johnson went from there to Capital One, where he was Vice President and Chief U.S. Card Compliance Officer.

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We think he’s likely to get grilled by Committee Democrats for his closeness to the industry and for having served at a major credit card company – but it’s highly likely he ultimately gets confirmed.

Others joining Johnson at the hearing include John Crews, a member of the board of the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). He’ll be the first new NCUA board member since early last year, when President Trump fired the Democratic members of the board. Currently, Crews is serving as the Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions. And previously, he was the Banking Committee’s Policy Director – so the hearing will be something of a homecoming.

Also, this coming week, the House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing titled “Examining Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Prediction Markets.” While focused on sports betting, the timing could not be better, as it was discovered this past week that the White House teleprompter operator was making large bets in the prediction market Kalshi on what President Trump was going to say in his speeches(he’s been suspended from his job).

Looking at what happened last week, we would note that Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh made some interesting comments in his House and Senate hearings about regulation. When asked by Senator Katie Britt (R-Ala) about the Fed’s effort on bank regulation tailoring, Warsh said:

“…broadly, I’ll step back and say modernizing our banking system, streamlining regulations so that the rules that apply to the systemically important financial institutions are not one size fits all for every other. The secret to the American economy is we have a few 1000 banks and other providers of credit who know their smaller markets bigger. I’d rather have that system than what most of our G20 peers have, where they have a half a dozen institutions implicitly backed by their government. I think reform is coming to supervision and regulation.

I have my own ideas that might be as dramatic as I’ve already shared on monetary policy here, and I think the sooner we can get to the bottom of it, the better. If I could say one more thing, the reforms we’ve been putting in place over the last 15 years, coming out of Dodd-Frank, as we learned in the Silicon Valley Bank example, in the First Republic example, they didn’t work perfectly. My predecessors had very little choice but then to do another overall bailout. We don’t want that to happen again, so we want to tailor the rules and the capital, so they serve the best interests of the US economy, which I describe as a system that is safe, sound, and competitive.”

Also last week, Acting CFPB Director Russ Vought revealed the CFPB is close to unveiling a rewrite of regulations governing access to consumers’ financial data– rewriting Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act. The Biden Administration rule – which was blocked by a federal judge - banned banks from charging for access to their customers’ financial data.

That rule hit Fintech firms, digital asset companies, and retailers who heavily rely on that data for their payment platforms (which made banks happy). But fintech and crypto firms rallied, lobbying Vought hard to rewrite the rule rather than letting the court strike it down. Vought’s comments served as something of a starter gun for a new and very tough battle between banks and the fintech/crypto worlds, which is likely to go on for some time.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Thursday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will meet in Executive Session to vote on the nomination Dr. Christopher Phelan, to be Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President; John Crews, to be a Member of the National Credit Union Administration; and Jeffrey Ledbetter, to be Inspector General, Department of Housing and Urban Development. The Committee then will conduct a hearing for Brian Johnson, to be Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; Ms. Abby Warren, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Commerce; and Irving Dennis, to be Chief Financial Officer, Department of Housing and Urban Development.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, July 21, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.”

· Tuesday, July 21, 10:00 a.m. - The House Agriculture Committee’s Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development Subcommittee holds a hearing on “Examining Prediction Markets: Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Markets.”

· Tuesday, July 21, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on “Oversight of the Federal Home Loan Bank System.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· The Federal Reserve Board is in a Quiet Period in advance of the July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Conferences –

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· July 21, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· Thursday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Brian Johnson to be Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, July 21, 1:45 a.m. – SIFMA holds a member briefing on the US Economic Outlook.

· Wednesday -Thursday, July 22 – 23 – The National Council of Farmer Cooperatives holds its 2026 Washington Conference. House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, (R-Mo.) delivers remarks on “House Tax & Trade Priorities.”

· Thursday, July 23, 10:30 a.m. – SIFMA co-hosts with Deloitte a Forum entitled “Scaling AI Maturity in Financial Services.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

· July 21 – 22 - The Brookings Institution Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy; Purdue University Mitch Daniels School of Business; Brandeis School of Business and Economics Rosenberg Institute of Global Science; and the University of Texas at Austin Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs hold its annual Municipal Finance Conference in Washington, D.C.

· July 21 – 23 – The Association of Government Accountants holds its Professional Development Training 2026 in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, July 21, 2:30 p.m. – The CATO institute is holding a policy forum entitled “A Forum for Lasting Affordability”

Recommended Reading

It’s Time for Ottawa to Fulfill its Responsibility on Systemic Risk and Market Enforcement C.D. Howe Institute
In a new report from the Toronto-based think tank, the authors call for Ottawa to revive key elements of the unfinished capital markets reform agenda. “Rather than reopening the long-running debate over a single national securities regulator, the report focuses on what tools are needed to manage systemic risk and strengthen criminal enforcement of capital market misconduct.”
Why is bank enforcement declining? Aaron Klein and Cameron Connell, Brookings Institution
Enforcement of rules by bank regulators has declined, as measured by formal enforcement actions. The decline in enforcement has occurred across administrations, in contrast to the narrative of a pendulum of enforcement that swings between Democratic and Republican administrations. Instead, the data show a stepwise decline in enforcement in which subsequent administrations either maintain lower enforcement rates or continue to decrease enforcement. Enforcement decline varies substantially by regulator: the sharpest decline is at the Federal Reserve (Fed), where formal enforcement actions have fallen by nearly 50 percent since Covid.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 7/17/26 Francis Kelly 7/17/26

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

July 13 - 17, 2026

Fed Chair Warsh Gives His First Semiannual Report to Congress, Treasury Undersecretary McKernan Set to Exit, and the White House Prepares Australian-Style Retirement Accounts

Washington cannot wait to get to August, the quietest time of the year, as everyone heads out on vacation. But until then, it is going to be a busy couple of weeks ahead.

The big event of the week is Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s first semi-annual report to Congress. While the bulk of the testimony and questions and answers will focus on the economy, there is a high likelihood that Warsh will be asked about several regulatory efforts underway at the Fed.

Also this week, both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee will hold their respective annual review hearings on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The fact is, the CFPB has been reduced to a skeletal staff that does little, as the Trump Administration (and many Republican members of Congress) would like to see it abolished. With that in mind, House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark) is preparing a draft CFPB reform bill that may simply fuse the agency into another prudential banking agency. We might see a draft or a preliminary description of what Chair Hill wants at the hearing.

Down at the Treasury Department, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will be meeting on Tuesday. The preliminary agenda for the meeting includes a presentation on the Council’s recent tabletop exercise on geopolitical risk; the Council’s work on artificial intelligence; the Council’s quarterly financial stability monitor; the Council’s proposed interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company designations; and the Council’s 2026 annual report.*

Staying with Treasury for a moment, there was surprising news this past week that Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Jonathan McKernan is departing. McKernan had served on the board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and had served as a key architect of much of the Trump Administration’s bank regulatory reform efforts. In February 2025, McKernan had been named Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Board, but the nomination was withdrawn. He was later nominated to serve as Undersecretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance, a role he has held since October 2025.

Also, last week, the White House floated the idea of creating Australia-inspired retirement savings accounts and is apparently drafting legislation to make it happen. Australia has a superannuation program that requires companies to contribute 12 percent of their workers’ pay into a retirement plan.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· Thursday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.” Director of the Office of Management and Budget/Acting Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Russell Vought, will testify.

· Thursday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a confirmation hearing to consider the nominations of Francis Brooke to be Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, Erin Browne to be Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, Sriprakash Kothair to be Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, and George McMaster to be Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, July 14, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

· Wednesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.” Director of the Office of Management and Budget/Acting Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Russell Vought will testify.

· Friday, July 17, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence will hold a field hearing in new York (Federal Hall) entitled “Building the Future of Finance: How the CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· Monday, July 13, 5:25 a.m. ET - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak virtually at the Bank Policy Institute’s Roundtable.

· Monday, July 13, 12:30 p.m. ET - Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give an economic update at the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) in New York.

· Tuesday, July 14, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

· Tuesday, July 14,12:40 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C. He will later participate in a fireside chat on the issue of artificial intelligence and financial inclusion.

· Tuesday, July 14, 1:00 p.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before hybrid Kenosha Area Business Alliance Business Lunch event in Chicago, Illinois.

· Tuesday, July 14, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech entitled “Consumers, AI, and Financial Inclusion: Balancing Opportunities and Challenges” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, July 14, 2:55 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a pre-recorded video speech entitled “Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, July 15, 8:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives a keynote speech and participates in a conversation organized by the Partnership for New York City.

· Wednesday, 11:00 a.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Board President Alberto Musalem gives the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture in St. Louis, Missouri.

· Wednesday, July 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives an economic outlook at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, July 16, 12:00 p.m. – Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid gives his perspective on the economy at the Grand Island Economic Forum in Grand Island, Nebraska.

· Thursday, July 16, 12:30 p.m. – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in moderated question-and-answer session sharing insights about her leadership role at the Federal Reserve, her experiences as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee and her perspectives on the evolving economic landscape in a Fed Listening Tour event.

· Thursday, July 16, 7:00 p.m. ET – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Navigating Economic Shocks” at Stanford University.

Conferences –

· Tuesday, July 14, 12:30 – 5:30 p.m. – The Federal Reserve Board hosts the 3rd Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, "Next-Gen Financial Inclusion," in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Tuesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet in Executive Session. The preliminary agenda for the meeting includes a presentation on the Council’s recent tabletop exercise on geopolitical risk; the Council’s work on artificial intelligence; the Council’s quarterly financial stability monitor; the Council’s proposed interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company designations; and the Council’s 2026 annual report.*

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, July 13, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC’s Office of the Advocate for Small Business Capital Formation is partnering with the Division of Corporation Finance to host a discussion entitled ”Rethinking the Rulebook: Modernizing the IPO Process and Access to Public Capital.”

· Thursday, July 16, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

https://www.cato.org/blog/postal-banking-has-died-zero-customers-years

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, July 14, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Two years later: How have our nation’s institutions responded to Loper Bright and the end of Chevron deference?”

· Wednesday, July 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives an economic outlook at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

Recommended Reading\

What Do Over 3,000 Bank Runs Teach Us About Banking Crises? Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Runs on financial institutions are one of the salient markers of financial crises. But the role of runs in crises is a topic of longstanding debate. Runs can be seen as the key turning point, whereby even small shocks can generate severe crises with widespread bank failures. Another view is that runs are mainly a symptom of deeper rot in the financial system, exacerbating crises rather than being their primary cause. Understanding this debate has first-order implications for how to think about financial crises and the appropriate policy responses. In this post, we use a new database of more than 3,000 bank runs (introduced in our companion post) to show that poor fundamentals are central to explaining both when runs occur and when they have severe economic effects. We argue that this evidence tempers the view that small shocks can have outsized real effects through self-fulfilling run dynamics.
Postal Banking Has Died with Zero Customers in Years Cato Institute
The United States Postal Service has finally laid the postal banking pilot program to rest. However, it’s unlikely anyone noticed. The program didn’t have a single customer from April 2022 to September 2025.
Why are the “Underbanked” paying more for financial services? Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Why are people with less income paying more for financial services? It’s a question we at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ask all the time about the “underbanked.” The underbanked (as opposed to the “unbanked”) have an account of some kind with a financial institution – usually checking or savings. But they still use often expensive nonbank “alternative financial services,” or AFS. One example is payday loans, which are high-interest loans usually due the day of the borrower’s next paycheck. Another popular AFS is retail bill pay, when people go to a retail outlet like a supermarket or pharmacy to pay utility, credit card, and other bills for a fee. The underbanked tend to have lower income levels and an incentive to pay less. So, what’s steering them toward more expensive financial products? We know some of the answers. In a survey we conducted with the nonprofit Commonwealth, AFS users cited speed, trust, and confirmation that their funds were sent or received as their top reasons for using those services.

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