Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 9/13/26 Francis Kelly 9/13/26

The Global Week Ahead

Houthi-Saudi Clashes Escalate and Red Sea Shipping Comes Under Greater Threat, Canadian Prime Minister Carney to Pitch “Associate EU Membership,” and a Big Week at the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England

September 13 -20, 2026

It is going to be a very busy week ahead. Between an anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the escalating Saudi-Houthi conflict threatening all Red Sea shipping, understanding the implications of the last-minute cancellation of an Iran-Gulf State leaders meeting to discuss a new Strait of Hormuz passageway, markets will likely struggle to keep pace with the rapid geopolitical shifts.

Last week’s Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's overland east-west oil pipeline (threatening more than 4% of global oil production) along with the Houthi’s lightning-strike victories over Saudi-and UAE-backed Yemeni forces are proving to be a significant game-changer to the already tense regional situation. Houthi forces were able to quickly capture the strategically located Yemeni city of Mokha along with Mayun Island. The island – also known as Perim – sits directly in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, giving Houthis effective control of the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Additionally, the Houthi advances now position the Iranian proxy forces to launch new attacks on several Saudi cities close to the Yemen border. The question now is what do Saudi and UAE military forces do in response, and will the US support the two Gulf State allies by launching new attacks on Iran as well as attacking Houthi forces on Mayun Island and in Southern Yemen to protect the Red Sea?

One immediate result of the Houthi advances is the abrupt cancellation Sunday night of a high-level meeting hosted by Oman between Iran and seven Gulf State leaders. The leaders were going to discuss a possible temporary new passageway through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets had been hoping the meeting would allow for further freeing up of shipping through the Strait.

Also this week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Strasbourg, France, to give an extraordinary address to the European Parliament. Carney's speech – which comes one day after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's annual State of the EU speech – is expected to propose that the EU grant Canada "Associate Membership" to strengthen bilateral trade ties in the wake of the ongoing trade fights with President Trump. His visit and speech will also help lay the groundwork for the EU-Canadian Summit being held in Canada in October.

It will be a very busy week for Carney. He travels to France after hosting the Canada Investment Summit 2026 in Toronto, which will bring together more than 250 top global finance CEOs and aims to attract C$1 trillion in long-horizon capital over five years.

Also this week in Europe, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will hold its General Conference in Vienna. The agenda will heavily focus on Iran's and North Korea's nuclear programs, and we are also likely to learn more about Iran's apparent renewed efforts to rebuild its nuclear program at Pickaxe Mountain.

Two important elections are scheduled this week. Voting for Russia’s State Duma (parliament) begins Friday. The strongly pro-Putin legislature is unlikely to change because the Kremlin controls the official results. However, polls show greater voter frustration with the Ukraine War and its mounting impact on the Russian economy. This has led to the ruling United Russia Party going into the elections with some of the lowest approval ratings ever.

The other election is likely to be much more impactful to markets: Next Sunday, Germany will see the next two sets of state elections - Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - following the shock elections in Saxony-Anhalt that gave the far-right AfD Party its first major victory. Polls indicate the AfD is leading in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) are leading in Berlin.

Finally, we would note that the BRICS Leaders' Summit concluded on Sunday in New Delhi. The leaders of China, Russia, India, Iran, and the rest of the 11-member BRICS nations presented a united front in the final communique calling for "maximum restraint" in the Middle East while condemning "deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities" – a thinly-veiled swipe at President Trump and US policy in the region.

On the global economic and financial radar this week, the biggest event for markets is the Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the rest of the Committee are under market pressure to raise interest rates amid growing inflation worries and surging Treasury yields. But Warsh is clearly stuck between a rock and a hard place as President Trump continues to demand the Fed go the other way and cut rates. The President has also warned the Fed that if it does not lower interest rates, he will "stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit."

We expect the pressure on Warsh and the Fed to grow on Tuesday when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the state of the international financial system and the overall economy. He's expected to echo President Trump in pushing for no rate increase.

Also this week, the Bank of Japan meets and is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points amid growing external economic pressures, including oil prices, as well as pressure to address ongoing foreign exchange stability issues.

Additionally, the Bank of England meets this week, but consensus suggests it will hold rates.

Among the week's major economic releases, the US will release August retail sales figures on Wednesday and industrial production numbers on Friday.

In Asia this week, Japan's trade data and core machine orders are due Wednesday, and the August CPI print is due Friday. China releases industrial production data, retail sales, and fixed-asset investments on Tuesday.

In Europe, Germany's September ZEW survey is out on Tuesday, the UK's labor market data is released on Tuesday, the August CPI print is out on Wednesday, and retail sales and the GfK consumer confidence index are out on Friday.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Voting for the Okinawa gubernatorial election will take place. The race is between the incumbent governor, Denny Tamaki, who is backed by the opposition parties, and a challenger supported by parties including the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The crucial election will influence the direction of the relocation of a US military base within the prefecture.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s Trade Unions Congress (TUC) begins in Brighton and runs through September 16th. TUC brings together 47 member unions to discuss policy and advocacy positions, important to the ruling Labour Party agenda.

· Sweden holds parliamentary elections. All 349 members of the Riksdag are up for election.

· The EU Arctic Summit begins in Rovaniemi, Finland. Hosted by Finish Prime Minister Petteri Orpa, the event runs through September 14th and brings together an invited group of EU leaders to discuss a common strategic approach to the Arctic region “as its geopolitical significance continues to grow rapidly.” The Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs along Russia’s Arctic coast, has seen a significant spike (more than a 40% increase year over year) in commercial shipping through the area with the melting and breaking up of parts of the Arctic cap.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 69th Commonwealth Parliamentary Conference will take place in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 14, 2026

Global

· The 70th International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Conference will be held in Vienna, Austria and run through September 19th.

· The G20 Energy Ministerial takes place in Houston Texas through September 16th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hosts the Canada Investment Summit 2026 in Toronto. The event will bring together more than 250 top global finance CEOs and aims to attract C$1 trillion in long-horizon capital over five years. Among them will be BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Blackstone CEO John Gray. On the sidelines of the Summit will be two major private events: The Milken Institute Global Dialogue and the Canadian Global Growth Forum.

· The US Senate returns from its August recess.

· Brazil holds its second presidential debate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Inflation Rate (August)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ CPI Common (August)/ CPI Median (August)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (July)

· Brazil Business Confidence (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN Economic Ministers meeting takes place in Manila through September 15th.

· The autonomous region of Bangsamoro in the Philippines holds its first permanent government. More than 2 million voters are expected to vote in the southern Philippine’s region, and it is hoped the election of the autonomous region government will help bring peace to the heavily Muslim area after decades of conflict.

· The Thai king and queen will make a state visit to Vietnam through September 16th to help celebrate more than 50 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (August)/ Services NZ PSI (August)/ Visitor Arrivals (July)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

· India WPI Food Index (August)/ WPI Fuel (August)/ WPI Inflation (August)/ WPI Manufacturing (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production Q2

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy through September 15th in Dublin, Ireland.

· The European Arctic Summit takes place in Rovaniemi, Finland. The meeting, which runs through September 14th, will be hosted by Finish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo. The agenda will cover ways to strengthen the EU’s common strategic approach to the Arctic region which has seen a large spike in commercial shipping – mostly by China – in the last few years. Attendees will include Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz, Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Estonia Kristen Michal, Prime Minister of Latvia Andris Kulbergs, President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda, President of Romania Nicușor Dan and Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs of France Jean-Noël Barrot. President of the European Council António Costa and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs, Security Policy Kaja Kallas.

· NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, will receive the Prime Minister of Slovenia, Janez Janša, at NATO Headquarters, in Brussels.

· The NATO Digital Backbone eXperimentation (DiBaX) – NATO’s annual research and testing event designed to advance security military communications, multi-domain interoperability, and next-generation battlefield technology -- will be held in in Riga, Latvia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech and participates in a panel discussion at the "Hofburg im Dialog – Economy, Europe, Resilience" in Vienna, Austria.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) Symposium on European Competitiveness in Berlin, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at an event at House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a fireside chat at the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference 2026 in New York,

· Hungary Construction Output (July)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

· Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

· EARNINGS: MP Evans Group (HY), Global Data (HY), Greencoat Renewables (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Global

· The World Trade Organization publishes its latest World Trade Report on trends and policy challenges on the opening day of the WTO Annual Public Forum.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US tariff modifications on Canadian goods go into effect.

· US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give the “Annual Testimony of the Secretary of the Treasury on the State of the International Financial System” before the House Financial Services Committee.

· The US Congress returns from the Labor Day holiday. The House of Representatives is expected to vote this week on a Russian sanctions bill which has already passed the Senate in July.

· Delaware holds primary elections.

· Today is Independence Day in Costa Rica, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Cay in El Salvador, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Guatemala, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Honduras, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (July)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)/ Redbook (September/12)/ NOPA Crush Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/11)

· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (July)/ Wholesale Sales (July)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)

· Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Xiangshan Defense Forum and the 4th China-Africa Peace and Security Forum will take place in China. This is the country's top security and military meeting involving defense officials and scholars from around the world. The three-day event is expected to feature discussions on international order and strategic stability, as well as dialogues on regional hotspots like Ukraine and the Middle East. Washington is reportedly sending an official from the Pentagon after dispatching a military attaché last year.

· The first meeting of the Conciliation Commission under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea between Thailand and Cambodia starts in Singapore. The Thai delegation will be led by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow.

· In China, A new enforcement regime takes effect on the borders, giving immigration officers broader powers that some worry could make it harder to leave or enter the country. According to Nikkei News, it remains to be seen how the measures will be implemented, tougher questioning and demands for supporting documentation to prove one's reasons for traveling are expected. The stricter screenings come as China also strengthens its global tax dragnet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import/Export Prices (August)

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (August)

· China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (July)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

· Turkey Budget Balance (August)

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will meet with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. The meeting will take place as part of Pistorius’ trip to the US for a rollout of F-35 warplanes purchased by Germany

· Members of the European Parliament will hear from EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas on the recent escalation of Russia’s hybrid attacks against member states and how to protect the EU’s territorial integrity, and critical security and defense infrastructure. The Parliament will then vote on a resolution on Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the opening keynote speech at the Watching European Financial Market Regulation and Supervision Conference organized by the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and the Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at conference on Watching European Financial Market Regulation and Supervision organized by the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and the Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participate in a dinner exchange with members of the SPD Economic Forum in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Member of the External Financial Policy Committee Carolyn Wilkins gives a speech at Queens University in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (August)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (September)

· Romania Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

· UK Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (July)/ Claimant Count Change (August)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)/ Conventional Gilt

· Hungary Industrial Production (July)

· France Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (August)

· Spain Inflation Rate (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (August)

· Italy Balance of Trade (July)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (July)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

· Greece Construction Output Q2

· Serbia Building Permits (July)

· EARNINGS: City of London Investment Group (FY), Everplay Group (HY), Kier (FY), Princes Group (HY), Trustpilot (HY), Wickes (HY), MJ Gleeson (FY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Industrial Production (July)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

· Israel Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes two days of meetings on interest rates. A press conference with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh begins at 2:30 p.m.

· The Bank of Canada releases their Summary of Deliberations from the September interest rate meeting.

· Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Building Permits (July)

· Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (September)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (September/11)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/11)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (September/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/11)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Import/Export Prices (August)/ Retail Sales Control Group (August)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (August)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (September)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (September/11)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (July)

· Colombia Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee is due to unveil the city's first five-year plan, aiming to strengthen its position as a financial center in support of Beijing's own five-year blueprint. The move to adopt Communist Party-style planning has raised eyebrows in a city known for laissez-faire capitalism. But authorities have stressed that the plan will help Hong Kong serve the cause of national development without compromising its free-market economy.

· Today is Independence Day in Papua New Guinea, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Current Account Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/15)

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Machinery Orders (July)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

· China FDI (YTD) (August)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/31)

· Kazakhstan GDP (August)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden gives the annual State of the European Union speech in Strasbourg, France.

· The International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) Prague Defense Summit begins and runs through September 18th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends the festive opening of Alte Oper season in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujčić chairs a policy panel entitled "Geoeconomics and Trade: Risks, Resilience and Policy Responses" at ECB Annual Research Conference 2026 "Geoeconomics and the International Trading System" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the opening keynote speech at the Nature Finance and Resilience Day of Climate Finance Week Ireland in Dublin, Ireland.

· UK Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI Input/Output (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

· Hungary Gross Wage (July)

· Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (July)/ Labor Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

· Ireland Balance of Trade (July)/ Residential Property Prices (July)

· Poland Inflation Rate (August)

· Belarus Industrial Production (August)

· Russia PPI (August)

· EARNINGS: WHSmith, Barratt Redrow (FY), Bolloré (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3/ Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is expected to vote on renewing the mandate of the panel of experts supporting the 1737 sanctions committee on Iran.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gives a special address to the EU Parliament in Strasbourg, France. Carney is expected to raise the idea of Canada being given “associate member” status with the EU in the wake of ongoing political and trade tensions with the US.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (July)/ PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

· USA Building Permits (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/05)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/12)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ Philly Fed Employment (September)/ Philly Fed New Orders (September)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (September)/ Pending Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/11)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (September/17)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/17)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/16)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Leading Indicator (August)

· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q2

· EARNINGS: Lennar

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In India, the Semicon India conference begins and runs through September 19th. It brings together government officials and global executives, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi who will inaugurate the new event. Other speakers include the CEOs of Advanced Micro Devices, Infineon Technologies and LAM Research.

· The 23rd China-ASEAN Expo + China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit begins in Nanning, China and runs through September 21st. China’s Vice Commerce Minister Yan Dong recently framed the event around building out the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement.

· The Tokyo Game Show, one of the world's largest gaming conventions, will begin in the city of Chiba next to the Japanese capital. Now in its 30th year, it will run for five days and host a total of 1,138 businesses from around the world, ranging from major gaming studios to indie developers, hardware manufacturers and even construction companies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan begins its two-day Monetary Policy meeting.

· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/12)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (August)/ Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

· Turkey Auto Production (August)/ Auto Sales (August)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (August)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia holds elections for the Duma (parliament) through September 20th. 450 seats are up for election. Going into the election, the United Russia ruling party is leading in all polls.

· South Ossetia holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane chairs the Jean Monnet lecture "Economic Size and Economic Power" delivered by Paul Krugman at ECB Annual Research Conference 2026 "Geoeconomics and the International Trading System" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· The Bank of England meets on Interest rates. It will also release its Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in September.

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)/ SECO Economic Forecasts

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (September)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/11)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Serbia Current Account (July)

· EARNINGS: Galliford Try (HY), Helvestia Baloise (HY), LPP (HY), Next (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3/ Building Permits (July)

Friday, September 18, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Chile, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on “The Final Chapter on Bank Stress Test Reforms” hosted by the City of London in London.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)

· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

· USA Industrial Production (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (September/18)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/18)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN economic ministers will gather in Manila, Philippines. The primary agenda includes food security, the digital economy and stronger trade links. But the real focus will be on how to deal with the region’s slowing growth caused by the Iran War and other global issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan decides on Interest Rates.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives evidence to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Canberra.

· South Korea PPI (August)

· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Food Inflation (August)

· Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (August)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

· India Bank Loan Growth (August/30)/ Deposit Growth (August/30)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/11)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Dublin, Ireland. After the meeting, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference. Then there will be an informal meeting of EU Finance Ministers through September 19th. UK Chancellor John Healey has been invited to attend the informal meeting.

· The NATO Military Committee Conference – gathering all 32 NATO defense chiefs – will be held in Denmark and runs through September 19th. They are expected to discuss how to further provide aid to Ukraine and counter increased Russian hybrid warfare against NATO members in recent months.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Belarus GDP (August)

· EU ECOFIN Meeting

· Germany PPI (August)

· UK Retail Sales (August)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (August)

· Poland Industrial Production (August)

· Euro Area Current Account (July)/ Current Account s.a (July)/ Construction Output (July)

· Italy Construction Output (July)/ Construction Output (June)/ Current Account (July)

· Slovakia Current Account (July)

· EARNINGS: Wolford (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 19, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 20th Asian Games begin in Aichi-Nagoya, Japan. This is Asia’s largest sporting event and runs through October 4th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s Liberal Democrats hold their Autumn conference in Brighton.

· Oktoberfest officially begins in Munich, Germany.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 20, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany holds state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The latest polls show the far-right AfD Party has grown since their recent electoral victory in Saxony-Anhalt.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through September 21st in Dublin, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Bloomberg holds its Qatar Economic Forum in New York around the UN General Assembly. H.E. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, Prime Minister & Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

· October 11 – 13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

· January 18 – 22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

· April 12 – 18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

Francis Kelly 9/11/26 Francis Kelly 9/11/26

The Global Week Ahead

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Begin Again, The BRICS Leaders’ Summit Gets Underway, the 81st UN General Assembly Starts with World Leaders Set to Arrive, and Markets Are Focused on ECB Rates and the U.S. PCE Report

September 6 - 13, 2026

After months of little diplomatic movement, it appears that efforts to find a peaceful end to the Russian War on Ukraine have begun again. U.S. Special Envoys Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff spent three hours with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday before flying to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This is the first time Kushner and Witkoff have traveled to Kyiv for meetings. While all sides said the meetings have gone “well,” there are few details emerging yet as to what is being discussed as possible outlines of a deal.

However, Putin did inform Kushner and Witkoff that the battlefield situation is “difficult” but claimed Russian military forces are making “real progress” on the battlefield (which, by many accounts, is contrary to the facts on the ground). The meeting comes after the recent surprise visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow. We would also note it comes following a report in The Economist of Putin telling aides “they will hang me” if he fails to win control of the Donbas and wins the war. While he did not specify, “they” is most likely a reference to his far-right/ultranationalist base. According to recent polls, public sentiment in Russia is increasingly tense and souring on the war in the wake of growing Ukrainian drone attacks and a distinct lack of confidence in the country’s long-term future.

In the Americas this week, Canada begins its dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on Tuesday. They will hit a number of U.S. products with a range of 15% to 50%. And the U.S. Congress is out for the Labor Day holiday.

Also this week, the BRICS Leaders’ Summit gets underway in New Delhi, India. The agenda is packed, with talks likely to focus on harnessing greater cooperation among the Global South, trade, energy cooperation, and climate issues. What will be particularly interesting is an expected sideline meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Modi is keen to become more engaged in helping to find a solution to the ongoing Iran War to avoid damaging the Indian economy. So far, India has been able to defy expectations that the war would damage the economy, reporting last week 7.8% growth between April and June, comfortably beating most forecasts; however, concerns over the spiking costs of diesel oil, natural gas, and fertilizers are worrying leaders in New Delhi.

In Europe, leaders this week will be trying to digest the implications of the German far-right AfD victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections. Exit polls suggest the AfD won as much as 44.4% of the vote, with the right-of-center CDU winning 18.4% and the far-left Die Linke Party coming in with 9.3%. Of particular note: voter participation was at a record high of 76.5%. There are two more state elections in September in Germany, and the AfD is, so far, polling well in both those races.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big focus of markets will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on rates on Thursday and U.S. PPI and CPI prints.

Despite it being a short week in the U.S. (Monday being the Labor Day holiday), it is going to be a big week for economic reports. The August PPI is out on Thursday and the August CPI – which is closely watched by the Fed – is out on Friday. Following Friday’s blowout jobs report, worries over persistent inflation, and rising energy costs (especially with diesel prices now over $6 a gallon and rising), the Federal Reserve is under growing pressure to raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meetings. Amplifying his pressure campaign against the Fed, President Trump is now demanding the Fed cut rates, and if it does not, he is threatening to stop trading with any nation that has a deficit with the U.S.

Also this week in the U.S., the University of Michigan survey for September is out on Friday. And, notably, the U.S. Treasury begins its expanded long-end liquidity-support buybacks Wednesday.

As noted above, the ECB announces its decision on rates on Thursday, and the consensus is they impose a 25-basis-point hike, bringing the rate to 2.50%. Also in Europe this week, Germany releases industrial production numbers on Monday, and its trade balance on Tuesday. The UK releases its July GDP on Friday.

In Asia this week, China releases trade balance figures on Tuesday and its CPI and PPI on Wednesday. Japan releases the August Economy Watchers Survey on Tuesday along with July labor cash earnings. And on Friday, we will see Japan’s PPI print.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, September 6, 2026

Global

· OPEC+ meets virtually to review market conditions.

· The 3rd BRICS Sherpa/Sous-Sherpas’ meeting takes place in New Delhi, India through September 9th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexican Foreign Secretary Roberto Velasco Álvarez is in China for a two-day set of meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's inv. He will then travel on to Chongqing to open a new Mexican consulate. One of the major issues being discussed is China’s role near-shoring in Mexico as part of the ongoing USMCA negotiations with the US and Canada.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt state hold elections for the state parliament and local district councils. This election is attracting international attention as the far-right AfD Party is leading in the polls and have a good shot at winning. If that happens, most observers believe it will likely give the AfD significant momentum for future national elections.

· In London, Jamaican officials visit to lodge an unprecedented legal complaint calling for reparations for slavery.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 8th in Dublin, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Swaziland, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 7, 2026

Global

· In The Hague, the International Court of Justice will hold public hearings September 7-10 on the preliminary objections raised by Germany in the case concerning Alleged Breaches of Certain International Obligations in respect of the Occupied Palestinian Territory. The charges were brought by Nicaragua.

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will hold meetings through September 11th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· It is Labor Day in Canada and the U.S. All financial markets and banks are closed.

· Ukrainian President Zelensky travels to Toronto for meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

· Mexican Foreign Minister Alvaraz will travel to China for meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

· Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnamese Secretary General To Lam travels to Moscow for meetings with President Vladimir Putin through September 9th. They are expected to discuss energy, defense, security, and bilateral cooperation issues. The Secretary General then travels on to Paris for meetings with President Emmanuel Macron and then on to New York to attend the UN General Assembly.

· The U.S.-Korea-Japan joint military exercise “Freedom Edge” begins off the coast of South Korea and runs through September 13th. The exercises are being held despite North Korea vowing to retaliate against U.S. hostilities and condemning the exercises.

· The Seoul Defense Dialogue begins in Seoul, South Korea and runs through September 9th. The event is hosted by the Ministry of National Defense.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The EU/UK/Ukraine New High-Level Group on Defense is expected to hold its first meeting in Brussels. Created last week by the EU Chief Diplomat, Kaja Kallas, it is comprised of former political and military leaders to advise on how to better defend each entity in the face of growing Russian hostilities.

French President Emmanuel Macron and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will co-host Lumiere Summit in Paris. The event is expected to bring together about 150 participants from more than 30 countries, including representatives from the film, audiovisual and video game industries. Lee will then spend three more days in consultation with Macron on trade and mutual security issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Industrial Production (July)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

· UK Lloyds House Price Index / BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

· Hungary Industrial Production (July)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Euro Area Employment Change Final Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2

· Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· EARNINGS: Ashmore, Burkhalter, Gamma Communications, Sigma Roc, Standard Life

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Global

· The 81st UN General Assembly begins in New York.

· In Geneva, the Outer Space Security Conference 2026, organized by the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), will take place at the Palais des Nations through September 9th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. come into effect. The tariffs range in size from 15% to 50%, matching President Trump’s recently enacted tariffs dollar for dollar. A full list of U.S. products subject to the counter tariffs can be found HERE.

· Jury selection is due to begin in a New York court as Chinese telecommunications equipment giant Huawei faces a trial for alleged evasion of U.S. sanctions against Iran, intellectual property theft and other accusations. The company has pleaded not guilty in the case, which shook China's relations with both the U.S. and Canada.

· New Hampshire holds primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (September/05)/ Used Car Prices (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)

· Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Argentina Industrial Production (July)

· EARNINGS: ABM Industries, Braze

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (September)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July)/ RBA Hunter Speech/ RBA Hauser Speech

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin, Germany.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak before Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee on the August Monetary Policy Report.

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)/ Chancellor John Healey Speech

· Ireland Construction PMI (August)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

· EARNINGS: Computacenter, Dunelm, Funding Circle, James Fisher and Sons, Rubis, Theon, Uniphar

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Global

· The 2nd BRICS meeting of Finance and Central Bank Governors meets in Mumbai, India.

· The World Nuclear Symposium begins in London and runs through September 11th.

· The International Space Summit, hosted by the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, begins in Paris. The event is expected to bring together a large group of politicians, policy experts, scientists and astronauts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Republican Midterm Convention opens in Dallas, Texas. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to speak.

· Rhode Island holds a primary election.

· Apple hosts an event unveiling the latest iPhone.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Peter Routledge, Canada’s Superintendent of Financial Institutions, is speaking at the Scotia Bank Summit on September 9th and at the Economic Club of Canada on September 11th.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (September/04)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/04)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (September/04)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/04)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/04)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· El Salvador PPI (August)

· Peru Balance of Trade (July)

· EARNINGS: U.S. – American Eagle Outfitters, Chewy, Cooper Companies, Signet Jewelers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 11th Belt and Road Summit begins in Hong Kong and runs through September 10th.

· The Manila Strategy Forum 2026 begins in Manila, the Philippines and runs through September 10th. It is co-hosted by the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Amador Research Services.

· Hong Kong hosts BIOHK2026, a major four-day biotech conference. Speakers and exhibitors from around the world are due to showcase cutting-edge research and discuss policy trends and industrialization opportunities. The event comes as China's fast-growing biotech industry is increasingly in the spotlight.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

· China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchase/ Machine Tool Orders (August)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Norway holds a funeral for King Harald V in the Oslo Cathedral.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council begins meetings on interest rates at the Deutsche Bundesbank in Berlin, Germany. ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a speech at an official dinner that evening.

· Hungary Budget Balance (August)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

· Romania Balance of Trade (July)

· France Industrial Production (July)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (August)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Global

· The BRICS Business Council Annual meeting takes place in New Delhi, India.

· The Speakers of G7 Parliaments meeting begins in Paris and runs through September 12th.

· OPEC Monthly Oil Production Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will speak at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas.

· Bloomberg hosts its Power Players Conference in New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA PPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/05)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/29)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/05)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (August)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Natural Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (September/04)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (September/10)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/10)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/09)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: U.S. – Adobe, Macy’s, Oracle

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China hosts meeting of APEC Energy Ministerial meeting in Beijing.

· The inaugural Luzern Economic Corridor (LEC) Investment Forum begins in Manila, the Philippines. The event brings more than 600 investors, industry leaders, and senior government officials and is co-hosted by the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S.

· The Ho Chi Minh City Friendship Dialogue 2026 (FD -2026) begins in Ho Chi Minh City and runs through September 12th. The event brings together more than 500 investors looking at investments in technology, manufacturing, and human resource development.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Kazuyuki Masu speaks to local business leaders in Fukui, Japan.

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/05)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (August)

· Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Turkey Industrial Production (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (September)/ Overnight Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The Riga Conference 2026 begins Riga, Latvia and runs through September 11th. The conference brings together regional and international foreign policy and defense experts, academics, journalists, and business leaders to discuss and assess the key challenges facing the transatlantic community. Russia’s increasing hybrid warfare against Europe is expected to be a main topic of the event.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council concludes the 2nd day of meetings on interest rates. There will be a press conference with President Lagarde following the announcement of the decision on rates.

· The Bundesbank hosts the 21st Central Bank Conference on the Microstructure of Financial Markets through September 11th in Eltville am Rhein, Germany.

· UK RICS House Price Balance (August)/ New Conventional Gilt 2030

· Germany Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate Final (August)

· Slovakia Construction Output (July)

· Spain Industrial Production (July)

· Italy Industrial Production (July)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Industrial Production (July)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ ECB Marginal Lending Rate

· Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

· EARNINGS: Associated British Foods, Currys, Fevertree Drinks, Genus, John Lwis Partnership, Playtech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)

· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

Friday, September 11, 2026

Global

· The International Energy Administration’s Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

· France hosts G7 Parliamentary Speakers Summit 2026 in Paris. The event brings the Speakers of each G7 Parliament together to discuss “multilateral dialogue, democratic resilience, and global legislative cooperation.”

· Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year, begins this evening.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 25th anniversary of the al-Qaida attacks on New York City and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

· Mexico Industrial Production (July)

· USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ CPI s.a (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (September)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (September/11)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (July)

· EARNINGS: Kroger (U.S.)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ PPI (August)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Kazakhstan PPI (August)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Turkey Current Account (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/04)

· Indonesia Car Sales (August)

· China Vehicle Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage interview at the Banque Populaire Caisse d’Epargne Group Executive Summer University. Later, she will attend an event at Fête de la Pomme in Épreville-en-Lieuvin, France.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane delivers the Richard Cantillon lecture at the 49th Dublin Economics Workshop Annual Economic Policy Conference 2026 in Wexford, Ireland.

· Romania Inflation Rate (August)

· UK GDP (July)/ GDP 3-Month Avg (July)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Serbia Inflation Rate (August)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Germany Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)

· Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 12, 2026

Global

· The 18th BRICS Summit takes place in New Delhi, India through September 13th. The theme of the meeting is “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is scheduled to travel to Ireland for meetings with Irish President, Catherine Connolly. He will also hold bilateral meetings with the Taoiseach Michael Martin before traveling to the Trump golf course in Doonbeg, County Clare. Ireland is holding the Presidency of Council of the European Union through the end of 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Sweden holds parliamentary elections. All 349 members of the Riksdag are up for election.

· The EU Arctic Summit begins in Rovaniemi, Finland. Hosted by Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, the event runs through September 14th and brings together an invited group of EU leaders to discuss a common strategic approach to the Arctic region “as its geopolitical significance continues to grow rapidly.” The Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs along Russia’s Arctic coast, has seen a significant spike (more than a 40% increase year over year) in commercial shipping through the area with the melting and breaking up of parts of the Arctic cap.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

· September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

· October 11 – 13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The U.S. Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, 1/3 of the U.S. Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

· January 18 – 22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

· April 12 – 18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

Francis Kelly 9/7/26 Francis Kelly 9/7/26

International Economy Magazine:

Is France In Trouble?

was honored to recently be asked to contribute to a symposium of distinguished economists and geopolitical analysts commenting on the state of affairs in France. It has just been published in the Summer edition. The question posed to us was: What happens to the French economy—now struggling with high levels of both public and corporate debt—if the European Central Bank follows its narrow mandate and raises short-term interest rates in an attempt to hit a 2 percent inflation target? The ECB could face a situation where securing the state’s solvency takes priority over fighting inflation, forcing the central bank to monetize public debt.

My response is a simple but resounding yes. France’s current economic outlook is both complex and worrisome, compounded by simmering and seemingly intractable political tensions. With an anemic 0.8 percent growth forecast and non-financial corporate debt near 155 percent of GDP, France is truly the sick man of Europe.

You can read my full piece, along with the superb contributions of others, by going to the latest edition of International Economy Magazine HERE (the paywall is down).

Francis Kelly 9/4/26 Francis Kelly 9/4/26

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

August 31 - September 4, 2026

Washington Begins Wandering Back to Work, G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Heads Gather in North Carolina, and the NCUA Has a New Chair

Labor Day – the traditional “end of summer” – is still a week away, but Washington is slowly getting back to work. Very slowly.

First, the House of Representatives is in session this week, but only for four days. They go back out of session Thursday for the Labor Day week. The Senate remains out of session and is scheduled to come back September 14th.

Nevertheless, the House Financial Services Committee is holding a hearing this week entitled “Strengthening the American Economy: Promoting Growth, Opportunity, and Prosperity.” Among those testifying will be New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Mark and Circle President Heath Talbert. The Committee also appears to be preparing to discuss and possibly vote on H.R. 7866, the American Lending Fairness Act of 2026, sponsored by Representative Warren Davidson (R-OH). The aim of the bill is to clarify state opt-out rules regarding interest rate caps under the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980.

A companion bill was introduced in the Senate back in March by Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH), and both bills are strongly supported by the American Bankers Association and a host of other financial trade groups.

But we have to ask with respect: “what’s the point?” When you consider the House has less than 16 days left on the legislative calendar, there is virtually no time at all to advance this bill through the House and then the Senate and then to the President’s desk for signature. (We would also note there was news this morning the House work calendar may be cut in half as Republican members are pressing House Leaders to grant them more time to campaign back home in advance of the midterms).

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is hosting the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Heads Ministerial meeting in Asheville, North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday. Financial regulation isn’t a major theme of the conference; instead, the talks are dominated by Iran sanctions (and the US Treasury’s growing list of foreign banks it intends to sanction for helping the Iranian economy), global economic growth, and trade.

Looking at last week’s events, we would note the SEC late last week sent a new rule proposal over to the White House regarding investment advisors holding digital assets for clients. The purpose of the draft regulation is to “clarify the framework for the custody of crypto assets” for investment advisors and investment companies and comes in response to advisors and firms on how to actually hold crypto assets.

The other big event last week was a new final rule from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) redefining “unsafe and unsound” practices for financial institutions – which is aimed at making it more difficult for federal bank examiners to intervene. The rule effectively raises the bar for examiners to issue Matters Requiring Attention (MRAs) for corrective action. And as part of this, according to FDIC Chair Travis Hill, the FDIC and OCC are closing, or have already closed, a “large majority” of outstanding supervisory criticisms that do not meet this new standard.

Also early last week, the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) got a new chair: John Crew. As of now, he is the only member of the NCUA Board. Previously, Crew served as the Treasury Department’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions. He replaces Kyle Hauptman, who stayed on until Crew was sworn in. Hauptman is now serving as a member of the Public Accounting Oversight Board.

Let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in recess until September 14.

House of Representatives

· Wednesday, September 2, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Strengthening the American Economy: Promoting Growth, Opportunity, and Prosperity.”

· Wednesday, September 2, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee holds a hearing entitled “Strategic Partnerships to Secure Critical Resources and Supply Chains.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· Tuesday, September 1, 9:05 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook and financial inclusion at the Second Chance Lending Forum, hosted by Prosperity Now and the Collateral Consequences Resource Center, Washington D.C.

· Thursday, September 3, 8:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview (Virtual).

Conferences –

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday – Tuesday, August 31 – September 1 – The G20 Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors Ministerial meeting takes place in Asheville, North Carolina. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is chairing.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, September 3, 11:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday, August 31- September 1 – The Institute of Internal Auditors holds its 2026 Financial Services Exchange Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Recommended Reading

Credit Card Banking Itamar Drechsler, Hyeyoon Jung, Weiyu Peng, Dominik Supera & Guanyu Zhou/ National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: Credit card interest rates currently average 22%, an 18% spread over the short rate. This spread far exceeds that of any other loan or bond, yet nearly half of households are credit card borrowers. Why are credit card rates so high? To understand this, and the economics of credit card banking, we use regulatory account-level data to analyze the lifetime cash flows of 550 million monthly accounts, representing 90% of the US credit card market. While charge-off rates are comparatively high, averaging around 6%, they explain only a fraction of cards' spread. Reward payments and non-interest expenses are more than offset by interchange and non-interest income. Operating expenses, particularly marketing, are very large, and are used to generate pricing power. Yet, after deducting them, card lending still earns a 6.8% return on assets (ROA), more than four times the banking sector's ROA. Using the cross section of accounts, we estimate that credit card rates price in a 4.3% default risk premium, similar to high-yield bonds. Accounting for this, card lending earns an alpha of around 1.5% relative to the aggregate bank sector.
· Choosing To Fail: Managerial Liability, Risk Management and Voluntary Exits of Banks Haelim Anderson, Charles W. Calomiris & Jennifer S. Rhee/National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: We study how extended stockholder liability shaped bank resolution during and after the Panic of 1893, comparing California state banks (unlimited liability) with national banks (double liability). Using newly assembled data linking California state bank presidents to census records and national bank stock ownership data from Examination Reports, we measure managers’ personal exposures to extended liability. For California state banks, traditional fundamentals predict involuntary liquidations but do not explain voluntary exits. Instead, voluntary exits are driven by managers’ liability exposure, local economic risk, and personal wealth, consistent with managers responding to unlimited liability by initiating preemptive, orderly resolutions. For national banks under double liability, voluntary and involuntary liquidations are more similar, and personal exposure plays a smaller role in risk management. These findings show that substantial personal liability exposure can operate for modern prudential tools like compensation clawbacks and living wills. However, such extended liability also magnifies credit contractions during downturns, highlighting a fundamental tradeoff between micro-stability and macroeconomic fragility in regulatory design.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/30/26 Francis Kelly 8/30/26

The Global Week Ahead

Putin and Xi Will Meet at the SCO, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Heads Gather in North Carolina, Germany and the EU Prepare Tough New Sanctions on Russia, and Germany Holds Important State Elections

August 30 - September 6, 2026

Goodbye, August (and Summer) 2026 - it seems we hardly got to know you. From our perspective, this has been one of the busiest and most intense summers in memory. And from what we can see, looking out over the next six months, it is not going to slow down one bit. This coming week, there are two big events markets need to focus on – one in North Carolina and the other almost 7,000 miles away in Kyrgyzstan.

The first is the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial in Asheville, North Carolina on Monday and Tuesday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is chairing the meetings, and the major themes will be growth, trade imbalances, and Iran sanctions. A number of Wall Street CEOs and Fortune 100 CEOs are expected to be in attendance on the sidelines for meetings with officials.

Look for Bessent to push the G20 to support the Trump Administration’s recently announced “D-Day” sanctions on Iran in a bid to build a multi-nation coalition focused on cutting off Iran’s economic lifeline. Additionally, Bessent will be talking about growth issues and the overall strength of the US economy as part of Trump Administration messaging in advance of the November mid-terms.

While this is going on, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will hold its 25th Heads of State meeting in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Among the attendees will be Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

The primary goals of the meeting are ambitious: Markets should watch for the signing of the Bishkek Declaration 2026. Among the goals of the Declaration is the expanded use of national currencies within the SCO bloc to circumvent US and EU financial systems, broad pledges to build greater intra-energy systems, and possibly finalizing a long-sought-after SCO Development Bank to service the bloc’s economic growth.

On the sidelines of the Summit, Putin and Xi are expected to meet one-on-one. Paramount for Putin is finalizing with Xi the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project. The pipeline – estimated to be 1,615 miles long and valued at $14 billion – would provide 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China. But for a variety of reasons and to the great frustration of Putin, it has been put on hold multiple times since discussions about the project began in 2006.

Additionally, we are likely to see sideline meetings between Putin and possibly Xi with Iran’s President Pezeshkian. Interestingly, Xi is then traveling from the SCO to Egypt – his first visit there in ten years – for talks on bilateral trade and security issues in the Middle East (firmly showing China’s determination to be a major player in any future peace deals and the rapidly reshaping political architecture of the region).

Also this week, we are watching for an announcement from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz blaming Russia for an attempted explosive drone attack at the Leipzig Airport last month. Merz is expected to announce significant new sanctions on Russia that will reportedly go hand-in-hand with new EU sanctions (which may be announced at an EU Foreign Ministers meeting in Ireland on Tuesday). It will be a significant new escalation of tensions between the EU and Russia but it is coming for a reason: Russian hybrid attacks across the EU targeting critical underwater infrastructure, cyber-attacks, jamming of GPS for commercial airliners, sabotage of critical infrastructure, etc. have significantly increased in the last year, as outlined in a recently published Congressional Research Report (click HERE to read it).

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, the big events this week for markets – aside from the G20 Finance/Central Bank Ministerial and what comes out of the SCO Summit – will be the US August jobs report on Friday.

Other major US reports out this week include the JOLTS report and August ISM manufacturing index on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book and ADP Private Payrolls on Wednesday, and Services numbers on Thursday.

The Bank of Canada meets on interest rates on Wednesday, trade data is out on Thursday, and the Canadian labor force survey for August is out on Friday.

In Europe, flash August CPIs for Germany are on Monday and for Italy and the Eurozone on Tuesday. Germany also reports July retail sales on Tuesday and factory orders on Friday. We will also see Eurozone PPIs on Thursday. Markets are closed in the UK on Monday for a bank holiday.

Moving to Asia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on interest rates on Wednesday. China reports PMIs on Monday while Japan releases July retail sales and industrial production figures on Monday. Australia reports Q2 GDP on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope — named after the first Nasa chief astronomer, who is often dubbed “the mother of the Hubble Space Telescope” — launches aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting will be held in Koror, Republic of Palau through September 4th. The Forum convenes under the theme "Building Economies: Life. Action. Unity," with 18 members including Australia and New Zealand alongside the island states and territories.

· Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will address the country on the eve of National Day celebrations.

· Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is traveling to the US to attend the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Ministerial in Asheville, North Carolina. He will then travel on to Switzerland for meetings at the Bank for International Settlements Governors Meeting on September 5th.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey celebrates Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau holds a constitutional referendum which will expand presidential powers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 31, 2026

Global

· The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial meeting takes place in Asheville, North Carolina. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is chairing.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 28th Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defense Conference takes place in Victoria, British Columbia through September 2nd.

· The US House of Representatives returns from their August recess (the Senate does not return until September 14th). They are in session this week but will be off again next week for the Labor Day holiday. The big event for the House will be a vote on the Senate-passed stopgap extending government funding through December 11th. House Leadership is bringing the measure up for a vote under suspension of the rules and backed by the White House, four weeks ahead of the September 30th deadline. The bipartisan intent is explicitly to avoid a shutdown fight before the midterms. But this is likely to be a tough fight as House Republicans are split on whether to support the measure.

· Today is Independence Day in Trinidad and Tobago, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (July)/ Nominal Budget Balance (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Copper Production (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Cement Production (July)

· EARNINGS: SAIC

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Heads of States Summit begins in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan through September 1st. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will be in attendance. UN Secretary General Antonio Gueterres will also attend.

· In Indonesia, Super Garuda Shield begins – a joint US-Indonesian military exercise held in Bandung. It will be the largest military drill of its kind in Southeast Asia.

· The APEC Small and Medium Enterprises Ministerial meeting takes place in Guangzhou, China through September 4th.

· Today is Independence Day in Malaysia.

· Today is Independence Day, a national holiday in Kyrgyzstan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Japan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ Business Inventories Q2/ Housing Credit (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (August)

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

· Thailand Current Account (July)/ Private Consumption (July)/ Private Investment (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

· India GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Government Budget Value (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers through September 1st in Dublin, Ireland.

· The Bled Strategic Forum takes place in Bled, Slovenia. The Forum is organized by Slovenia's Foreign Ministry and the Centre for European Perspective under the title "Choosing The Future."

· Today is the Late Summer Bank Holiday in the UK. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde and Board Member Piero Cipollone will be attending the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial meeting in Asheville, North Carolina.

· Hungary PPI (July)

· Poland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (August)/ Bavaria CPI (August)/ Brandenburg CPI (August)/ Hesse CPI (August)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (August)/ Saxony CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Spain Current Account (June)

· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Greece Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

· Ukraine Current Account (July)

· UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel and Greece are set to sign an agreement in Tel Aviv formally launching the development of “Achilles Shield,” a $3.6 billion integrated air defense and missile protection network.

· In Saudi Arabia, the LEAP Conference begins. It is a four-day IT, tech, and AI exhibition.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Food Systems Forum takes place in Kigali and runs through September 4th.

· Morocco’s official election/campaign season begins for all 395 parliament seats in advance of elections of September 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)

Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Global

· France takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September. French Ambassador Jérôme Bonnafont, Permanent Representative of France to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month of September, will brief reporters on the UN Security Council Program of Work for the month.

· The G20 Innovation Ministers Meeting takes place in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The second round of negotiations between the Venezuelan government and opposition groups led by Dinorah Figuera is scheduled to be held (Date TBD).

· President Trump is expected to convene a meeting of US oil refining executives to discuss high gasoline prices.

· Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum presents second state of the nation government report.

· Massachusetts holds a primary election between Senator Ed Markey and Representative Seth Moultan for who will be the Democratic nominee in November.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook and financial inclusion at the Second Chance Lending Forum, hosted by Prosperity Now and the Collateral Consequences Resource Center, Washington D.C.

· USA ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Redbook (August/29)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (August)/ Construction Spending (July)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (August)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (August)/ JOLTs Job Quits (July)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/28)

· Brazil GDP Growth Rate Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Mexico Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Fiscal Balance (July)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Peru Inflation Rate (August)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (August)

· EARNINGS: Dell, Medtronic, MiniMed, Palo Alto Networks, ShopRite

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day, a national holiday in Uzbekistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chinese fashion online retailer Shein goes public in Hong Kong.

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2/ Private House Approvals (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

· Japan Capital Spending Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· South Korea Imports/Exports (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· China Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Indonesia Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/Exports (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Current Account Q2

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers – Gymnich, through September 2nd in Dublin, Ireland.

· The UK House of Commons returns from summer recess.

· The 11th Eastern Economic Forum begins in Vladivostok and runs through September 4th. The theme of the event is “"The Far East: Development for the Benefit of People.” Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend and give a major speech.

· The EU Arctic Forum, Indigenous Peoples’ Dialogue and Arctic Youth Dialogue begins in Brussels and runs through September 2nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Boris Vujčić will give a keynote speech at the inauguration ceremony of the Alexander von Humboldt Professorship at the European School of Management and Technology (ESMT) in Berlin, Germany.

· Ireland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Germany Retail Sales (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· UK Nationwide Housing Prices (August)/ BoE Consumer Credit (July)/ Mortgage Approvals (July)/ Mortgage Lending (July)/ M4 Money Supply (July)/ Net Lending to Individuals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q2/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Poland HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Inflation Rate Flash (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ CPI Flash (August)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· EARNINGS: Swiss Life Holdings

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The next round of Israeli-Lebanese talks mediated by the US is scheduled to take place (but may be moved to later in the week).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The USS Abraham Lincoln, after more than 250 days at sea, including operations in the Middle East as part of the Iran War, makes a rest-and-recreation stop in the Thai city of Pattaya. More than 5,000 sailors and Marines will come ashore for the rest of the week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Canada meets on interest rates. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference following the meeting at 9:45 a.m. Eastern Time.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ Industrial Production (July)

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/28)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/28)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/28)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/28)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/28)/ Fed Beige Book/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

· EARNINGS: American Eagle, Broadcom, Brown-Foreman, Five Below, Hewlett Packard, NetApp, Ollie’s Bargain Outlet, Snowflake, PVH

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· SEMICON, the largest semiconductor trade show in the industry, begins in Taipei, Taiwan and runs through September 4th.

· Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, a national holiday. To help celebrate the day, dozens of infrastructure projects will be launched across the country.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech to a group of local leaders in Sapporo, Japan.

· New Zealand Building Permits (July)/ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/01)

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (August)/ Ai Group Construction Index (August)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP Chain Price Index Q2/ GDP Consumption Q2/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (August)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

· Japan Monetary Base/ BoJ Takada Speech

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (August)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

· Thailand Business Confidence (August)

· India M3 Money Supply (August/21)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to London to attend the formal opening of the Bayeux Tapestry exhibition and meet with UK Prime Minister Andrew Burnham. This will be the first UK visit by a UK leader to meet with Burnham since he took office.

· There will be an informal meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in Dublin, Ireland, through September 4th.

· Estonia’s parliament convenes an extraordinary session to elect a new president.

· Today is Ceuta Day, recognizing the Spanish autonomous city’s sovereignty. Ceuta has been experiencing massive migrant waves and clashes with police and local residents in recent weeks trying to kick them out.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a public panel "Future-proofing European banking discussion" at Bruegel Annual Meetings 2026 in Brussels, Belgium.

· Spain New Car Sales (August)/ Unemployment Change (August)

· Italy New Car Registrations (August)/ PPI (July)

· Romania PPI (July)

· France Budget Balance (July)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q2

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (August)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ Corporate Profits (June)/ Real Wage Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping will make his first state visit to Egypt in ten years. He will be in Egypt through September 3rd. Xi will meet ⁠President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and exchange views on bilateral ties and ⁠international and regional issues of common concern.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The UN’s Office for Disaster Risk Reduction holds its Africa Early Warnings Forum in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (July)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Thursday, September 3, 2026

Global

Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ontario, Canada holds local elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview (Virtual).

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives opening remarks at the Opening Communities Webinar entitled “When Every Dollar Counts: Worker Perspectives on the Economy.”

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/29)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/29)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q2/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services Business Activity (August)/ ISM Services Employment (August)/ ISM Services New Orders (August)/ ISM Services Prices (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/28)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (September/03)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/03)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/02)/ Fed Hammack Speech

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Labor Productivity Q2/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)

· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

· Colombia Exports (July)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

· EARNINGS: Ciena, Wiley, Campbell’s Company, Toro, DocuSign, Lululemon, Smith & Wesson

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Bangkok Business Summit 2026 begins. The one-day event will bring together government and business leaders to showcase the country's economic potential and build international confidence ahead of the International Monetary Fund-World Bank annual meeting in October.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Import/Export Prices Q2/ Terms of Trade Q2

· Australia S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/29)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Singapore S&P Global Services PMI (August)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (August)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (August)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (August)/ HSBC Services PMI (August)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/28)

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez addresses the Spanish Congress on the Ceuta migrant crisis.

· The Reform UK National Conference opens in Birmingham and runs through September 5th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

· France New Car Registrations (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)

· Russia GDP (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (August)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)/ PPI (July)

· UK S&P Global Composite PMI (August)/ S&P Global Services PMI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)

Friday, September 4, 2026

Global

World FAO Food Price Index (August)/ Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (August)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (June)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Full-Time Employment Chg (August)/ Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Wages (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Earnings (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Weekly Hours (August)/ Government Payrolls (August)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (August)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (August)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (September/04)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/04)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (August)

· Colombia PPI (August)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 8th Russian-Chinese meeting on energy is scheduled to take place on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. The main issue to be discussed will be strategic energy projects including a meeting between President Putin and Chinese Executive Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang on finalizing a deal on the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline.

· In India, the Janmashtami festival is celebrated. It marks the birth of Hindu god Krishna.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (August)

· South Korea Current Account (July)

· Japan Household Spending (July)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (August)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

· Singapore Retail Sales (July)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/28)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 52nd TEHA/Ambrosetti Forum (The Cernobbio Forum) begins in Milan, Italy, and runs through September 6th. The event is held at Villa d'Este under the Chatham House Rule. Representatives of nine governments attending including Ukraine, Italy, Croatia, Albania, Azerbaijan and US. The first day agenda covers global economic, geopolitical and technological issues. The second day focuses on Europe with officials from all major EU institutions.

· Arctic Sentry, a NATO training mission being held in Greenland begins and runs through September 18th.

· Today marks the day when Giorgia Meloni becomes the longest-lasting Italian prime minister in the republic’s history.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the LSE TRIUM Anniversary Conference in London.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote address on "Diversity in the European Central Bank" at Irish Society for Women in Economics (ISWE) Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

· Romania Retail Sales (July)

· Germany Factory Orders (July)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

· Hungary Retail Sales (July)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· France S&P Global Construction PMI (August)

· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· UK New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (August)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (August)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

· Serbia PPI (August)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Ireland PPI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GNP Q2

· Russia Vehicle Sales (August)

· EARNINGS: Vivendi, Ermenegildo Zegna, National Beverage

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (July)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Business Confidence Q3

Saturday, September 5, 2026

Global

· The Bank for International Settlements Bimonthly Governors meeting will take place in Basel, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Global Impact Forum begins in Mumbai, India and runs through September 6th. A number of senior Indian political officials and business leaders will be speaking and/or attending.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece’s Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis makes annual economic policy speech at Thessaloniki trade fair.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 6, 2026

Global

· OPEC+ meets virtually to review market conditions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt state hold elections for the state parliament and local district councils. This election is attracting international attention as the far-right AfD Party is leading in the polls and have a good shot at winning. If that happens, most observers believe it will likely give the AfD significant momentum for future national elections.

· In London, Jamaican officials visit to lodge an unprecedented legal complaint calling for reparations for slavery.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 8th in Dublin, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Swaziland, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· August 29 – 30: The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

· August 31 – September 1: the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

· September 1 – 2: There will be a G20 Innovation Ministerial held in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

· September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 11 – 13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

· January 18 – 22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

· April 12 – 18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

Francis Kelly 8/28/26 Francis Kelly 8/28/26

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

G20 Deputy Finance Ministers Prep for Next Week’s Big Meeting, Central Bankers Gather in Jackson Hole, and Other Than That, Nothing is Going on Next Week

August 24 - 29, 2026

Washington is going to be really quiet next week. No big regulatory meetings or speeches; Congress is still out, and a good portion of the Treasury Department is headed down to Asheville, North Carolina, for the G20 Deputy Finance Ministers Meeting, which takes place three days before the big Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting (August 31-September 1).

But the big event of the week will be in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where the Kansas City Fed hosts the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will give an important economic outlook speech Friday).

Enjoy the peace and quiet. September will be very busy. Let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in recess until September 14.

House of Representatives

· The House is in recess until September 7.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· Friday, August 28, 10:00 a.m. (Mountain Time) – Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives keynote remarks at The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Conferences –

· Thursday – Saturday, August 27 – 29 – The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium takes place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The theme of this year’s conference is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

U.S. Treasury Department

· August 29 – 30 – The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting takes place in Asheville, North Carolina. The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting takes place three days later in Asheville (August 31 – September 1).

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, August 25, 11:00 a.m. – 1:10 p.m. – The American Bankers Association holds its virtual HR Connection Forum.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/23/26 Francis Kelly 8/23/26

Iran’s Parlimentary Speaker Trolls the US Over Treasury Market Turbulence

August 23, 2026

Earlier this week, I posted a note on how I believe Tehran has a bond market strategy as part of their overall fight against the US (the graph below). This morning, the Speaker of Iran’s Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf, posted the below meme tweet mocking the US and the state of the Treasury markets - which goes directly to my earlier point.

Iran is fighting an extraordinary and highly unusual asymmetrical war against the US. And markets should expect them to extend it to every part of the global markets they can reach.

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