Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 12/7/25 Francis Kelly 12/7/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s New National Security Strategy Sends Shock Waves, EU European Ministers Meet in Ukraine, and the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Other Central Banks Decide on Interest Rates this Week

December 7 - 14, 2025

The big geopolitical event this coming week is not what is going to happen but rather what happened last week: The release of the Trump Administration’s U.S. National Security Strategy, released this past Wednesday. The document – which is proving to be a geopolitical earthquake - is highly critical of Europe, blaming the continent and “other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife…”

The strategy also calls for an end to the expansion of NATO and criticizes Europe for “unrealistic expectations” on how to resolve the Ukraine War and has many wondering what the future commitment of the US to NATO actually will be.

From a financial market perspective, the strategy makes clear President Trump is determined to preserve and grow U.S. financial market domination globally, stating “The United States boasts the world’s leading financial and capital markets, which are pillars of American influence that afford policymakers significant leverage and tools to advance America’s national security priorities…”

Meanwhile – or in spite of the strategy – EU European Affairs Ministers will be gathering in Lviv, Ukraine this week to discuss Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU. Efforts to bring Ukraine into the bloc have faltered but this meeting is seen as likely jump-starting the talks again.

The big events this coming week will all be taking place in central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets this week and is expected to cut rates again. Also meeting this week to discuss interest rates is the Reserve Bank of Canada, the Swiss Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Turkey’s Central Bank.

Looking at the overall economic and financial radar screen for the coming week, it is a fairly quiet week globally. Starting in Asia, China reports on its trade balance on Monday and inflation (CPI and PPI) on Wednesday. Japan releases its Economy Watchers survey for November on Monday.

Turning to Europe, the UK reports Industrial Production on Monday and October GDP on Friday. Germany reports trade figures on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 8, 2025

Global

· The G7 Industry and Tech Ministerial meeting takes place in Quebec, Canada.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Myanmar. This afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on OSCE Chairperson-in-Office.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit begins in New York and runs through Tuesday. White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Auto Production & Exports (November)

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Uzbekistan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (October)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q3/ Bank Lending (November)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (November)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Markets and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will be receive a presentation on the ’Annual Overview Report on Simplification, Implementation and Enforcement’, followed by an exchange of views.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through December 9. Ministers will discuss migration and asylum policy.

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul travels to China for discussion on steel and rare earth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give a guest lecture on "The transformation of money: technological disruption and the future of financial services" at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany Industrial Production (October)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (November)

· Greece Balance of Trade (October)

· Hungary Budget Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 9th Pan African Congress will be held in Lome, Togo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (November)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 25th NATO Parliamentary Assembly Transatlantic Forum takes place in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (December/06)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September and October)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/05)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

· Argentina Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is expected to begin this week. The CEWC is expected to ratify the decisions of the 4th Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party held this past October.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates and holds a press conference.

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Private House Approvals (October)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (November)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at the ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)/ BOE Gov Bailey Speech

· Ireland Construction PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (November)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

· Greece Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Tanzania, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q4

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US government begins auctioning for oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets today and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell at 2:00 p.m.

· The Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates followed by a press conference with Bank of Canada Head Tiff Macklin.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (November)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/05)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/

· Brazil’s Central Bank meets to decide interest rates.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

China’s Premier Li Qiang holds the “1+10” Dialogue with the heads of major international economic organizations including President of the New Development Bank Dilma Rousseff, President of the World Bank Ajay Banga, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development Rebeca Grynspan, Director-General of the International Labour Organization Gilbert F. Houngbo, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Chair of the Financial Stability Board Andrew Bailey, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Jin Liqun, and Deputy Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Frantisek Ruzicka.

· Australia’s new social media age ban for under-16s comes into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (October)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

· Japan PPI (November)

· Australia RBA Chart Pack

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)

· China Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (October)

· India M3 Money Supply (November/28)

· Kazakhstan PPI (November)

· Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs in Lviv, Ukraine through December 11.

· UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears before the Treasury Committee in Westminster to give evidence on her recent Budget speech.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote interview with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf on "What are the futures of the euro and the dollar as global currencies, and what are the opportunities for the digital euro?" at 9th Edition of The Global Boardroom: "Achieving growth in a disrupted world" in London, United Kingdom.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery chairs a panel discussion at ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in panel discussion at the 20th High-level meeting on financial stability and regulatory and supervisory priorities jointly organized by AMF-BCBS-FSI in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

· Romania Balance of Trade (October)

· Turkey Industrial Production (October)

· Euro Area ECB Machado Speech

· Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

· Italy Industrial Production (October)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (October)

· Greece Industrial Production (October)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

· Belarus Inflation Rate (November)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Inflation Rate (November)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Iraq Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (November)

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

· Kuwait Interest Rate Decision

· Oman Interest Rate Decision

· Qatar Interest Rate Decision

· United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q3

· South Africa Retail Sales (October)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on UNOCA/LRA. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC Metting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This will be followed by a TCC Meting on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

· OPEC publishes its monthly oil production report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Falkland Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (October)/ Business Confidence (December)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/10)/ PPI (October and November)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (November)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (November)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Ecadour Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q3

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q4/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/06)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/06)

· Australia Employment Change (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss macroeconomic developments and members states’ draft budgetary plans.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through December 12.

· Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the Covid-19 inquiry in London.

· Portugal’s two main trade unions, the CGTP and UGT, call a nationwide general strike against the center-right government’s proposal to ease dismissals, expand outsourcing and cut certain compassionate leave entitlements, including bereavement leave for miscarriages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the Arab Monetary Fund, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Institute high-level meeting in Dubai.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (November)

· Turkey Retail Sales (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)/ Auto Production (November)

· Slovakia Construction Output (October)

· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Ireland Inflation Rate (November)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (October)/ Mining Production (October)/ Building Permits (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

Friday, December 12, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to vote on 2713 Sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti sanctions, as well as consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center Roundtable Series Program.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation before hybrid 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Mexico Industrial Production (October)

· USA Fed Paulson Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/12)

· Canada Building Permits (October)/ Capacity Utilization Q3/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)/ Wholesale Sales (October)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import and Export Prices (November)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (November)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (November)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

· Malaysia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

· India Inflation Rate (November)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/28)/ Deposit Growth (November/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)

· China Vehicle Sales (November)/ New Yuan Loans (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (November)/ Total Social Financing (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss Customs reform and the single currency package as well as imports of small parcels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate (November)/ Current Account (October)

· Romania Inflation Rate (November)

· Turkey Current Account (October)

· Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Construction Output (October)/ GDP (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)

· Hungary Construction Output (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

· France Inflation Rate (November)

· Spain Inflation Rate (November)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Jamahuri Day in Kenya, otherwise known as Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q4/ SACCI Business Confidence (October and November)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, December 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

· The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara. Kast is expected to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 12/5/25 Francis Kelly 12/5/25

The Global Week Ahead

EU Defense Ministers and NATO Foreign Ministers Meet on Ukraine Peace Talks, Putin Goes to India, Canadian Prime Minister Carney May Come to Washington, and Markets Brace for a Data-Heavy Week

November 30 - December 7, 2025

Efforts to reach a peace deal with Russia over their war against Ukraine will dominate the geopolitical agenda this week. EU Defense Ministers will gather in Brussels on Monday to talk about President Trump’s amended peace plan – this comes after Ukrainian officials met with US officials in Miami, Florida, to try to hammer out final but critical aspects of a plan constructed by the US, Ukraine, and EU following Trump’s initial 28-point plan two weeks ago.

While EU defense ministers are expected to focus on how to further support Ukraine’s military defense, NATO foreign ministers will gather in Brussels on Wednesday, where the focus will again be on the ongoing negotiations. However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to skip the meeting, sending Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau in his place. Rubio’s absence is seen as unusual, especially with the tight timelines of the negotiations with Russia. No formal reason has been given.

While all this is going on, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be traveling to India for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to shore up relations between the two nations. The visit comes following President Trump’s demands for India to stop buying Russian oil, which is being used to finance the war in Ukraine. Putin describes the planned summit as one that underscores the “privileged strategic partnership” between the two countries. It also shows how dependent Russia is now on Indian oil purchases to finance the war.

Finally, there appears to be a good chance Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will come to Washington, DC, this week for talks with President Trump over the ongoing trade dispute between the two countries. Technically, Carney would be coming for the FIFA World Cup team drawing announcement for the upcoming World Cu,p which is being played in Canada, the US, and Mexico. But talks on the sidelines with Trump are expected.

Looking at the global economic and finance radar screen this week, it is going to be a heavy week of economic and financial reporting.

In the US, the University of Michigan survey for December is out on Friday, while the ISM indices for manufacturing are out on Monday and services on Wednesday. Markets will also see delayed September indicators for industrial production out on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve Board has gone into its “quiet period” before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on interest rates on December 10th. But Fed Chair Jay Powell will be giving short remarks at a commemorative event for former Secretary of State George Shultz, while Vice Chair Michelle Bowman will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee this week on regulatory issues.

Turning to Europe, CPIs will be out for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Sweden. Markets will be watching closely for any uptick in inflation.

In Asia this week, China releases its official PMIs on Sunday, and non-official PMIs are out on Wednesday. And Japan’s Ministry of Finance’s Q3 Financial Statements Statistics are out on Sunday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Global

· Today is the first day of Advent.

· OPEC+ meets to discuss market conditions and production goals.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US will host Ukrainian officials in Miami, Florida to discuss next steps in the proposed Ukraine-Russia Peace Plan.

· Honduras holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

· Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Kyrgyzstan holds parliamentary elections.

· The Conference of the parties of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species takes place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Australia Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Switzerland holds a referendum on environmental responsibility.

· Transnistria holds parliamentary elections.

· Scotland celebrates St. Andrew’s Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold a party congress in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 1, 2025

Global

· The U.S. assumes the presidency if the G20 from South Africa.

· Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

· Today is the first day of the meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere. Winter is officially here.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· St. Lucia holds parliamentary elections.

· In the US, Cyber Monday is held with may e-retailers running special promotions.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay takes part in an online panel discussion as part of the Hoover Institution George P Shultz Memorial Lecture Series.

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (November)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (November)/ Fed Chair Powell Speech/ Construction Spending (September & October)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to Moscow, Russia for 20th round of China-Russia strategic security consultation.

· Today is Kazakhstan’s First President’s Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (October), Anna Breman becomes Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor, succeeding Christian Hawkesby who replaced Adrian Orr in March.

· Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a meeting with business leaders in Nagoya, Japan.

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November)/ Company Gross Profits Q3/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (November)/ Business Inventories Q3/ Commodity Prices (November)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

· Japan Capital Spending Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (November)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (October)

· Sri Lanka PPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU defense ministers meet in Brussels. The meeting, which will exclusively focus on Ukraine, will be chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas.

· Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer delivers the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet speech in London. This is traditionally a speech about foreign policy.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) meets in Brussels.

· German-Polish government consultations are to be held with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Prime Minister Donald Tusk meeting in Berlin.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing in Brussels.

· The EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council meets in Brussels.

· Today is Portugal Independence Day, national holiday.

· Today is Romania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (October)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (October)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (October)/ M4 Money Supply (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Ukraine Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Leo XIV begins a two-day apostolic visit, including prayers at the tomb of Saint Charbel Makluf at the Monastery of Saint Maroun.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Central African Republic Day, a national holiday.

· Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November)

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Global

· The OECD publishes its latest Global Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee,

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Mexico Business Confidence (November)

· USA Redbook (November/29)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/28)/ Total Vehicle Sales (November)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (November)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Laos National Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Export & Import Prices Q3/ Terms of Trade Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/02)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (November)

· Japan Monetary Base/ Consumer Confidence (November)

· Australia Building Permits (October)/ Current Account Q3

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs (Health) Council will meet in Brussels.

· The EU-Armenia Partnership Council meets in Brussels.

· Ukraine’s parliament will debate the 2026 draft budget, which the country must adopt in line with the IMF’s demands.

· French unions are calling for nationwide strikes calling for higher pay and better benefits.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of England publishes the Bank Capital Stress Test of major lenders and its half-yearly Financial Stability Report into risks facing Britain’s financial system.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at first Data Day "Burden Reduction in the Digitalization Era" organized by European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA).

· The FT Global Banking Summit 2025 begins in London, running until Thursday.

· Bank of England director prudential policy Philip Evans speaks at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association trading book capital conference on the implementation of Basel III.

· Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (November)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (November)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (October)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

· France Budget Balance (October)/ New Car Registrations (November)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q3

· Spain Unemployment Change (November)/ New Car Sales (November)

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech

· Italy Unemployment Rate (October)/ PPI (October)/ New Car Registrations (November)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ CPI (November)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Arabia to announce its 2026 budget, followed by a press conference with Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan.

· Today is UAE National Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The West Africa Energy Cooperation Summit will convene in Accra, Ghana through December 3.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Total New Vehicle Sales (November)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The New York Times DealBook Summit begins in New York. Among those speaking will be Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent , California Governor Gavin Newsom, Dario Amodei, the C.E.O. and co-founder of Anthropic; Brian Armstrong, the C.E.O. of Coinbase; Mary Barra, the chair and C.E.O. of General Motors; Larry Fink, the chairman and C.E.O. of BlackRock; Alex Karp, the C.E.O. and co-founder of Palantir; and Erika Kirk, the C.E.O. and chair of Turning Point USA.

· Chilean presidential candidates Jeannette Jara and Jose Antonio Kast will participate in a debate ahead of the December 14 presidential runoff.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (September)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/28)/ ADP Employment Change (November)/ Import & Export Prices (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)/ ISM Services PMI (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q3/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day tour of China with a scheduled meeting with his host, Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Beijing. The two leaders are expected to discuss bilateral ties as well as global affairs.

· The FT Live Commodities Asia Summit begins in Marina Bay, Singapore, and online. The theme of the two-day gathering is how global fragmentation is reshaping commodity markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Consumption Q3

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

· Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (November)

· China RatingDog Composite & Services PMI (November)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO foreign ministers’ meeting begins at the military alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, chaired by Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is planning on not attending.

· German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier begins a state visit to the United Kingdom.

· The European Commission will unveil the "Resource EU" economic security doctrine on how to secure rare earth and critical minerals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann is a panelist at the GIC College of Central Bankers Symposium in New York.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech at the 15th Workshop on Exchange Rates jointly organized by Banca d’ Italia, Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and National Bank of Belgium in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· Russia S&P Composite & Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ Real Wage Growth (September)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Romania PPI (October)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (November)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (October)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

· Jordan PPI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Egypt holds the 2nd round of the House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (November)/ Business Confidence Q4

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3

Thursday, December 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

· Brazil GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/29)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (November/22)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/280/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/03)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (November)

· Colombia Exports (October)/ PPI (November)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a two-day state visit to India. The visit is significant as it comes following U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of punitive tariffs on India in August for purchasing Russian oil. The leaders are expected to "exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual interest," according to a statement issued by India's Ministry of External Affairs on Friday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/29)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/29)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Household Spending (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meets in Brussels through December 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a policy panel discussing "Priorities and challenges for fiscal policies in Europe" at ECB-IMF conference on fiscal policy and EMU governance in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane chairs a keynote lecture by George-Marios Angeletos at ECB-IMF conference on fiscal policy and EMU governance in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Cinco Días Business Innovation Awards ceremony in Madrid, Spain.

· The Bank of England publishes monthly Decision Maker Panel data, from a survey of chief financial officers from small, medium and large businesses.

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues conference in Paris, France.

· Hungary Retail Sales (October)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (October)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

· France HCOB Construction PMI (November)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (November)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (November)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (November)

· Ireland Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GNP Q3

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/28)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The East African Community will hold its fifth ordinary summit of heads of states in Nairobi, Kenya through December 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account Q3

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (October)

Friday, December 5, 2025

Global

· The UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) Cities and Regions Summit begins in Nairobi, Kenya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will attend the final draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup to determine the groups for next summer’s 48-team competition being held in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chile Inflation Rate (November)

· Brazil PPI (October)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (November)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Average Hourly Wages (November)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (November)

· USA Personal Income & Spending (September)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/05)/ Consumer Credit Change (October)/ Used Car Prices (November)/ Factory Orders (September & October)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

· Argentina Industrial Production (October)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (November)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (December)/ Household Spending (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Economic Index (October)

· South Korea Current Account (October)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/28)

· Singapore Retail Sales (October)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a panel on "Global Imbalances and the International Monetary Order" at CEPR Paris Symposium in Paris, France.

· Germany Factory Orders (October)/ New Car Registrations (November)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (November)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

· Hungary Industrial Production (October)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Spain Industrial Production (October)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Italy Retail Sales (October)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

· Euro Area Employment Change Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ECB Lane Speech

· Greece GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Serbia PPI (November)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP (October)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (November)

· Jordan Unemployment Rate Q3

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Ghana Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, December 6, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spain celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

· Today is Finland's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Doha Forum begins and runs through December 7.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong holds a Legislative Council election, the second since Chinese authorities overhauled the system and imposed a strict national security law on the special administrative region. Only a small fraction of seats are directly elected, and all candidates are strictly vetted to ensure loyalty to Beijing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz travels to Israel to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/28/25 Francis Kelly 11/28/25

Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in South Africa, Trump Pushes Ukraine for a Decision on His Peace Deal, Washington Goes Quiet for Thanksgiving, But Will Publish Delayed Economic Data As EU CPIs Come Out

November 23 - 30, 2025

It is hard to believe we are already heading into Thanksgiving here in the US. It will be a relatively quiet week, not only in the US (Congress is out again this week), but also internationally.

But there are several important geopolitical events we are watching closely this week. First, the G20 is meeting this weekend in South Africa. The US decided to skip the entire meeting and not send any representatives – the first time the US has ever boycotted the G20. The absence of the US limited the Summit's ability to achieve significant outcomes. Interestingly, next year’s G20 meeting will be hosted by the US.

Also this week, President Trump’s controversial 28-point peace plan to end the Ukraine-Russia War is facing a tight deadline as Trump has demanded Ukraine give their decision on whether to accept it or not by Thursday. The plan emerged following meetings between Russian and US officials (no EU officials were involved). So far, there has been strong pushback from European leaders to Trump’s plan. And Trump is expected to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday or Tuesday to hear his concerns. So far, Trump has strongly criticized the European and Ukrainian arguments against his plan.

The plan, as laid out by Trump Special Envoy Steve Sitkoff, would require Ukraine to give up territory that Russia has not occupied. We are watching for a significantly different counter-proposal to be presented by European leaders before Thursday.

Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Venezuela continued to rise. Several airlines have now halted flights to the country after heightened US military activity made such flights too risky. As to what the Trump Administration is planning is still unclear. Reports on Sunday suggest the US is preparing a massive media campaign (including airdrops of leaflets) urging Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro to leave the country immediately.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets are awaiting the release of delayed US economic reports (including September retail sales and durable goods orders). The reports were delayed due to the federal government shutdown.

Also this week, the US Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday. Then the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday. The federal government and markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday will be an extremely quiet day for markets. There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. And in Canada, we will see Q3 GDP numbers.

In Europe, Germany, France, and Italy will release their November CPIs on Friday. Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Monday, and consumer confidence is out on Tuesday (as is France’s). In the UK, the Chancellor, Christine Reeves, presents the Autumn Budget to Parliament. There will be several European Central Bank (ECB) Board speeches this week, including one by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Plus, the ECB releases minutes from its last meeting.

In Asia, Japan publishes the November Tokyo CP this week, while Australia releases its October CPI.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week – we hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Global

· The G20, being held in South Africa, concludes.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bosnia and Herzegovina holds early presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 24, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Gaza/Lebanon), followed by consultations.

· The UN’s 14th Forum on Business and Human Rights begins in Geneva and online. The theme is accelerating action on business and human rights amid crises and transformation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

· The U.S. designation of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization is due to take effect.

· Canada's Newfoundland and Labrador province will hold a general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile PPI (October)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September & October)

· Paraguay PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese financial markets and government are closed for the Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Singapore Inflation Rate (October)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-African Union Summit takes place in Luanda, Angola through November 25. On the sidelines of the Summit, the EU-Africa Business Forum takes place.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss EU-US and EU-China trade relations, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick scheduled to participate.

· The Chair of the BBC, Dr Samir Shah, and Robbie Gibb, a non-executive member of the BBC board, face questions from Britain’s Member of Parliament on the Culture, Media and Sport Committee about editorial standards at the national broadcaster, following the selective editing of a Donald Trump speech by news program Panorama, which sparked a $1bn defamation threat from the US president and resulted in the resignations of the BBC director-general Tim Davie and BBC news chief Deborah Turness.

· The Confederation of British Industry's annual meeting takes place in London.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases their report “Stablecoins on the rise: still small in the euro area, but spillover risks loom.”

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the BratislavAI Forum on Artificial Intelligence and Education as part of OECD high-level event: 25th anniversary of "Better Policies for Better Lives" in Bratislava, Slovakia.

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a presentation at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ECB-NGFS workshop “Vanishing Nature, Rising Risk: a Central Banking and Supervisory Lens on Ecosystem Degradation” in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Turkey Business Confidence (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (November)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (October)/ Employment Growth (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ PPI (October)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Libya. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Suriname Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Current Account (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)

· Mexico Retail Sales (September)/ Current Account Q3

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Redbook (November/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September)/ House Price Index (September)/ Pending Home Sales (October)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (November)/ Money Supply (October)/ Business Inventories (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/21)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (October)

· Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Asian Development Bank hosts the 14th Asia Smart Cities Conference in Yokohama, Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Index (September)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting

· Philippines Budget Balance (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Chile Joint Council meets in Brussels.

· Today is the National Day of Bosnia & Herzegovina, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases its report “A Systemic risks in linkages between banks and the non-bank financial sector.”

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank of Ireland's Financial System Conference 2025 in Dublin, Ireland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at the Climate Finance Week Ireland 2025 "Supervising Nature Risk: Regulation and Transition" organized by the United Nations Development Programme in Dublin, Ireland.

· European Union New Car Registrations (October)

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Q3

· France Consumer Confidence (November)

· Spain PPI (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

· Poland Retail Sales (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q3

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Global

· The OECD launches its Environmental Outlook report, assessing efforts to tackle the “triple planetary crisis” of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Bank Lending (October)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (November)

· USA Beige Book is published/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/21)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (November/15)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Chicago PMI (November)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/21)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (November/28)// Building Permits (September & October)/ Durable Goods Orders (October)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (September & October)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (September & October)/ Wholesale Inventories (September & October)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ New Home Sales (September & October)/ PCE Price Index (September & October)

· Colombia Business Confidence (October)

· Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (November)

· Australia Construction Work Done Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (October)/ CPI (October)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (October)/ RBA Smith Speech

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Japan Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Economic Index (September)

· Singapore Industrial Production (October)

· India M3 Money Supply (November/14)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review is released.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an acceptance speech at the Transatlantikpreis ceremony 2025 at Steuben-Schurz-Gesellschaft in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the "Macro Outlook" session at conference on Global Market Insights: Navigating the new geopolitical environment organized by Santander CIB in Paris, France.

· Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

· Russia Corporate Profits (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Great Britain Autumn Budget 2025

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 27, 2025

Global

· The United Nations is closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US celebrates Thanksgiving, a national holiday. The Federal government and financial markets are closed.

· St. Vincent and the Grenadines holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (November)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

· Canada Current Account Q3/ Average Weekly Earnings (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to local leaders in Oita, Japan.

· New Zealand Retail Sales Q3/ ANZ Business Confidence (November)

· Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q3/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q3/ Private Capital Expenditure Q3

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (October)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

· Malaysia PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Education and Youth) meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 24th CEDE Congress of Executives in Zaragoza, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates on a panel discussion at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates and speaks at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks at the Goodbody 18th annual conference in Ireland.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Economic Confidence Index (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)/ Economic Sentiment (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Industrial Sentiment (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (November)/ Services Sentiment (November)/ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Italy Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Industrial Sales (September)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

· Greece Total Credit (October)

· Spain Business Confidence (November)

· Russia GDP (September & October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Leo XIV begins a historic visit to Turkey and Lebanon through December 2.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (October)

Friday, November 28, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Black Friday, the start of the US Christmas season holiday shopping rush.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October)/ Nominal Budget Balance (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Net Payrolls (October)

· Chile Copper Production (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Fiscal Balance (October)

· Canada GDP (September & October)/ Budget Balance (September)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Cement Production (October)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

· USA Fed Balance Sheet (November/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Conference (November)

· South Korea Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (October)/ Jobs/applications ratio (October)/ Tokyo CPI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/22)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Construction Orders (October)

· Australia Housing Credit (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Singapore Bank Lending (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Export Prices (October)/ PPI (October)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (October)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

· India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (October)/ Government Budget Value (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/14)/ Deposit Growth (November/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Culture and Sport) meets in Brussels.

· The Institute for International Finance holds its European Banking Regulation & Supervision Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Today is Albania's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives keynote remarks at the 12th annual IIF Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain Car Production (October)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (November)

· Germany Retail Sales (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployed Change & Persons (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (November)/ Bavaria CPI (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (November)/ Hesse CPI (November)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (November)/ Saxony CPI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)/ Financial Stability Report

· Hungary PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ KOF Leading Indicators (November)

· France Inflation Rate (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (October)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)/ Jobseekers Total (October)

· Spain Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Current Account (September)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Poland Inflation Rate (November)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (November)

· Greece Retail Sales (September)/ PPI (October)

· Ireland Retail Sales (October)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (November)

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, November 29, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Honduras General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Global

· Today is the first day of Advent.

· OPEC+ meet to discuss market conditions and production goals.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Honduras holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

· Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Kyrgyzstan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (November)

· Australia Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Switzerland holds a referendum on environmental responsibility.

· Transnistria holds parliamentary elections.

· Scotland celebrates St. Andrew’s Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/16/25 Francis Kelly 11/16/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington is Back to Work, Lots of Federal Reserve Speeches This Week – and Several on Financial Regulation, and OCC Director Gould Talks the Future of Banking

November 17 - 21, 2025

It only took the better part of seven weeks, but Congress finally figured out how to cut a deal to get the federal government back to work. Looking at the week ahead, there is not a whole lot going on yet as the regulators get back into the swing of things.

Notably, the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on the future of deposit insurance. And over in the Senate, the Agriculture Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Mike Selig on Thursday to become the next chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, while the Senate Banking Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Travis Hill to be the Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (which was cancelled a couple of weeks ago due to the shutdown).

Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will be speaking this week on the future of banking, a possible additional hint of what the Trump Administration is thinking in terms of their pending overall bank regulatory overhaul.

Also this week, there are, by our count, at least 15 speeches by Federal Reserve Board Governors and Federal Reserve Presidents. Four stand out as important from a regulatory perspective – two from Fed Governor Stephen Miran, one from Fed Governor Michael Barr, and one by Fed Governor Lisa Cook (see highlighted schedule below).

Other than that, we expect it to be a fairly quiet week and a very quiet week the following week as Washington disappears for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Below is the full report of the financial regulatory-related events we could find happening this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, November 19, 10:30 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing to consider the nominations of Joseph Gormley, of Maryland, to be President, Government National Mortgage Association, Francis Cassidy, of Pennsylvania, to be an Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Paul Hollis, of Louisiana, to be Director of the Mint, and Travis Hill, of Maryland, to be Chairperson of the Board of Directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

· Wednesday, November 19, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Mike Selig to be chairman of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, November 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled The Future of Deposit Insurance: Exploring the Coverage, Costs, and Depositor Confidence.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, November 17, 9:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri.

· Monday, November 17, 3:35 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Society of Professional Economists (SPE) Annual Dinner 2025, London, United Kingdom.

· Monday, November 17, 9:00 a.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Monday, November 17, 1:00 p.m. – Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari moderates a fireside chat and audience Q&A with Christophe Beck, CEO of Ecolab, at the November luncheon for the Economic Club of Minnesota.

· Tuesday, November 18, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on bank supervision at the Kogod School of Business Alan Meltzer Speaker Series, Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, November 18, 2:00 p.m. – Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks on the economic outlook at Shenandoah University.

· Tuesday, November 18, 2:00 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the “Making Missing Markets: Connecting Communities and Capital” hybrid event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Wednesday, November 20, 8:45 a.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives opening remarks before the”2025 Financial Stability Conference: Financial Stability in a Time of Rapid Economic and Technological Change” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

· Wednesday, November 19, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech on bank regulation and the Fed’s balance sheet at the Bank Policy Institute and Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council: Conversation with Governor Stephen I. Miran, Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, November 20, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Assessing Resilience and Vulnerabilities in the Financial System: A Conversation with Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook, Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, November 20, 8:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran speaks at the American Investment Council General Counsel Day, New York, New York.

· Friday, November 21, 7:30 a.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile.

· Friday, November 21, 8:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr gives welcoming remarks at the College Fed Challenge Finals, Washington, D.C.

· Friday, November 21, 8:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on financial stability at the 2025 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Financial Stability Conference, Cleveland, Ohio.

· Friday, November 21, 9:00 a.m. – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated panel before the" SNB and its Watchers 2025" event.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Nothing significant to report.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, November 20, 2:00 p.m. – SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda speaks at the Investment Company Institute’s Securities Law Developments Conference in New York.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, November 18, 1:55 p.m. – Acting Chairman of the FDIC Travis Hill will speak at the American Fintech Council Policy Summit in Washington, D.C.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Tuesday, November 18, 5:00 p.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould discusses the future of the federal banking system at the American Fintech Council Policy Summit in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday & Thursday, November 19 – 20 – SIFMA holds its annual Market Structure Conference in New York.

· Thursday, November 20 – The Investment Company Institute holds its Securities Law Developments Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, November 18 – The American Fintech Council holds its Policy Summit 2025 in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, November 18, 8:30 a.m. – Politico will hold a policy discussion entitled “Politico holds a discussion on "Policy Outlook: Combating Financial Cybercrime."

· Wednesday, November 19, Noon – The Exchequer Club will host Representative Andy Barr (R-KY), a member of the House Financial Services Committee.

· Thursday, November 20, 9:00 a.m. – FinRegLab holds its AI Symposium in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 11/16/25 Francis Kelly 11/16/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Hosts Saudi Deputy Crown Prince, Chile Holds Presidential Elections, US Tension with Venezuela Grows, BLS Jobs Reports Return, and Markets Await Inflation Reports

November 16 - 23, 2025

There will be a lot of political action in the Americas this week of special interest to markets. First, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salam (MBS) will visit the White House on Tuesday. The meeting is seen as an important step following President Trump’s efforts to bring peace to Gaza and Trump’s historic meeting with Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa last week.

MBS’s visit is facing considerable anger as memories in Washington of the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, thought to have been ordered by MBS, are still strong. While here, MBS is expected to seek to ink a deal to greatly enhance US-Saudi defense relations, including the sale of advanced F-35 fighters to Saudi Arabia. We are also watching for possible announcements regarding Saudi Arabia’s plans to invest billions in US data center development and other major technology initiatives.

While this is all going on, tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to grow. The US Defense Department announced last week the launch of Operation Southern Spear – a major effort targeting narco-terrorist activity and operations in the Hemisphere with a likely initial focus on Venezuela. The announcement comes as the USS Gerald R. Ford, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, comes within range of Venezuela, and as US military training and drills across the Caribbean ramp up.

Also happening this week in the region is Chile’s presidential elections, being held today (Sunday). Polling suggests conservative candidate Jose Antonio Kast leading, but not enough to avoid a run-off vote on December 14 against left-wing candidate Jeannette Jara.

Finally, we would note that US sanctions on Russian oil are scheduled to begin on Friday. Markets will be watching closely to see whether Russia does anything between now and then to mitigate the impact, such as offering to sit down for peace talks over Ukraine. We doubt it, though.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big event in the US will be the return of government economic reports, released after Congress reopened the federal government. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be releasing September jobs figures on Thursday. Also, this week in the US markets, we will be watching for the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee minutes being released. The economic news will also be filled with reports by more than 15 Federal Reserve Board and Reserve Bank members.

In Asia, Japan releases Q3 GDP figures today (Sunday) and October CPI figures on Thursday. China announces lending rates on Thursday.

Turning to Europe, the flash November PMIs are out on Friday for the UK and the Euro Area, including Germany and France. The UK will also release retail sales and consumer confidence figures on Friday. Add to this numerous speeches by European Central Bank board members, including a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, November 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Right-wing opposition Chile Vamos coalition's candidate, former Providencia mayor Evelyn Matthei (2016-24), will likely win the presidency; if a run-off is needed, it will be held on 14 December 2025.

· Ecuador will hold referendums on whether to allow foreign military bases in the country and whether to remove state funding of political parties.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 17, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Threats to international peace and security: Conflict-related food insecurity.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on releasing all the Epstein files.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Society of Professional Economists (SPE) Annual Dinner 2025, London, United Kingdom.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari moderates a fireside chat and audience Q&A with Christophe Beck, CEO of Ecolab, at the November luncheon for the Economic Club of Minnesota.

· Canada Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI Median (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (September)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (November)/ NOPA Crush Report/Net Long-term TIC Flows AUG/ Foreign Bond Investment AUG/ Overall Net Capital Flows AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn concludes a five-day state visit to his kingdom's near neighbor, the first by a Thai monarch since diplomatic relations were established in 1975.

· A special tribunal in Bangladesh's capital is expected to render a verdict against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for her alleged offenses during the 2024 protests that ultimately drove her from power.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (October)/ Food Inflation (October)

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

· India Unemployment Rate (October)

· China FDI (YTD) (October)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (September)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (October)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in France.

· The 7th Accession Conference with Albania begins in Brussels.

· The EU Agricultural and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Council of Heads of Government begins a two-day meeting in Moscow ahead of Russia taking over the rotating presidency of the SCO from China.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the 28th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the J.E. Cairnes Lecture on "The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank" at the University of Galway, Ireland.

· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ European Commission Autumn Forecasts

· Italy Inflation Rate (October)

· Turkey Auto Production (October)/ Auto Sales (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

· Belarus Industrial Production (October)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (October)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Dubai Airshow is held at Al Maktoum International Airport through Nov. 21, bringing together more than 1,500 exhibitors.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q3

· Nigeria Food Inflation (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing followed by consultations on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House.

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney begins a state visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including meeting UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan. He will then travel to South Africa to attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit.

· The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission releases its annual report to Congress.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on bank supervision at the Kogod School of Business Alan Meltzer Speaker Series, Washington, D.C.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the "Making Missing Markets: Connecting Communities and Capital" hybrid event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks on the economic outlook at Shenandoah University.

· Chile Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Canada Housing Starts (October)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (November)/ Redbook (November/15)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/14)/ Export Prices (September & October)/ Import Prices (September & October)/ Industrial Production (September & October)/ Capacity Utilization (September & October)/ Manufacturing Production (September & October)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (September)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ISE Economic Activity (September)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's ruling party will hold its first meetings under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to discuss revising security policies through November 20.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission EU Enlargement Forum is held in Brussels, including an opening message from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The theme is Completing the Union, Securing our Future.

· The European Digital Sovereignty summit begins in Berlin, co-hosted by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and France’s President Emmanuel Macron, and discussing Europe’s digital future, security and independence.

· UK former prime minister Sir John Major gives the Maurice Fraser Annual Lecture at the London School of Economics, titled “Britain in a changing world”. Separately, the Police Federation of England and Wales begins its two-day annual conference in Birmingham, and in Westminster the Treasury Committee holds an evidence session on cryptocurrency.

· The annual Festival of Economics, a four-day event with economists and experts from around the world, begins in the British city of Bristol.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Moldova’s Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra to speak at the Knoop Annual Lecture at the University of Sheffield on ‘Unpacking the puzzle of income growth and weak consumption in the UK’.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives remarks at the "Banca do Futuro" conference on the reform of SREP and AI in banking supervision in Lisbon, Portugal.

· The European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives the keynote speech at the Symposium on the current hybrid threat environment and financial stability organized by Commerzbank and Hybrid CoE in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the introductory statement at the ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2025 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates at ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2024 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Hungary Gross Wage (September)

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q3

· Great Britain BoE Dhingra Speech

· Belarus GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Interest Rate Decision/ Wholesale Prices (October)

· Ghana PPI (October)

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). This afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1267/1989/2253 Committee (sanctioned nations) and the 1373 Committee (counter-terrorism), as well as the 1540 Committee (nuclear weapons)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The United States will host a U.S.-Saudi investment summit in Washington, D.C.

· The USA-India Business Summit begins in Atlanta, Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech on bank regulation and the Fed’s balance sheet at the Bank Policy Institute and Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council: Conversation with Governor Stephen I. Miran, Washington, D.C.

· Bank of Canada External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent speaks in Quebec.

· The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee minutes are released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/14)/ Starts (September & October)/ Building Permits (September & October)

· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (October)/ Leading Indicator (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand PPI Input Q3/ PPI Output Q3

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Machinery Orders (September)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)/ Wage Price Index Q3

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (November)/ Lending Facility Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Tajikistan Cooperation Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at the 2025 EBA Policy Research Workshop in Paris, France.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI Input (October)/ PPI Output (October)/ Retail Price Index (October)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (September)/ CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ ECB Buch Speech

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (October)

· Italy Current Account (September)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (September)/ Residential Property Prices (September)

· Serbia Current Account (September)

· Russia PPI (October)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang begins a two-day official visit to the country ahead of travelling to the G20 summit in South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

Thursday, November 20, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (dealing with Israel and Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The funeral of former Vice President Dick Cheney takes place in Washington, D.C.

· Today s Revolution Day in Mexico, a national holiday.

· Today is National Sovereignty Day in Argentina, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Assessing Resilience and Vulnerabilities in the Financial System: A Conversation with Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran speaks at the American Investment Council General Counsel Day, New York, New York.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated discussion before the CFA Society of Indianapolis Annual Lunch and New Charterholder Ceremony.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives opening remarks before the"2025 Financial Stability Conference: Financial Stability in a Time of Rapid Economic and Technological Change" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)/ PPI (October)/ Raw Materials Prices (October)

· USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (November)/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Existing Home Sales (October)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (November)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/19)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October & November)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October & November)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October & November)/ CB Leading Index (September & October)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (November)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Koeda gives a speech to local leaders in Niigata, Japan

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/15

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (November)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (October)

· India Infrastructure Output (October)

· Taiwan Export Orders (October)/ Current Account Q3

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 4th EU-Indo Pacific Ministerial Forum begins in Brussels and goes through Saturday.

· The European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (October)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/14)/ Central Government Debt (October)

· The European Central Bank holds a General Council Meeting/ Construction Output (September)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

· Italy Construction Output (September)

· Spain Balance of Trade (September)

· Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

· Greece Current Account (September)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (November)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Oman Inflation Rate (October)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tonga holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Business Confidence Q4/ Building Permits (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, November 21, 2025

Global

· The COP30 Summit, being held in Belem, Brazil, concludes.

· G7 Interior and Security Ministers are scheduled to meet in Ottawa.

· US oil sanctions on Russia are set to go into effect.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr gives welcoming remarks at the College Fed Challenge Finals, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on financial stability at the 2025 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Financial Stability Conference, Cleveland, Ohio.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote address before the Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated panel before the"SNB and its Watchers 2025" event.

· Mexico Economic Activity (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/21)

· Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey

· Argentina Economic Activity (September)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

· Peru Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Auto Guangzhou returns to the southern Chinese city, running through the end of the month. The annual automotive exhibition is expected to feature over 1,000 vehicles, more than half of which are either pure EVs or hybrids, from brands including Mercedes-Benz, Nio and Xiaomi. The event comes as total vehicle sales rose 12.4% to 27.68 million units in the first 10 months of the year, partly driven by exports.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (October)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Credit Card Spending (October)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

· Japan Inflation Rate (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

· Indonesia Current Account Q3/ M2 Money Supply (October)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/14)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-ASEAN Ministerial meeting takes place in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Frankfurt European Banking Congress, including speeches from ECB president Christine Lagarde and Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel.

· The European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and Q&A at the Foro Gran Via organized by Fundación BBK in Bilbao, Spain.

· The Karl Brunner Institute Swiss National Bank and its Watchers conference. Speakers include the Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Lorie Logan.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and Q&A at a meeting with Deusto Business School Alumni in Bilbao, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a fireside chat at the JP Morgan European Financials Conference in London, United Kingdom.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a roundtable organized by Österreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) in Vienna, Austria. Later, she gives the keynote speech in a session "The Future of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Neutralized Monetary Policy, Fiscal Dominance and Unsustainable Debt Dynamics" at the European Meeting of the Trilateral Commission in Vienna, Austria.

· Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (October)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

· France Business Confidence (November)/ Business Climate Indicator (November)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (October)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

· Poland Business Confidence (November)

· Slovenia PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (October)

· Switzerland SNB Schlegel Speech

· Slovakia Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, November 22, 2025

Global

· The G20 Leaders’ Summit begins in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Lebanon Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bosnia and Herzegovina holds early presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/9/25 Francis Kelly 11/9/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Hosts First-Ever Visit of a Syrian President, COP30 Begins in Brazil, Iraq Holds High-Stakes Elections, and the US Government Shutdown May End Soon

November 9 - 16, 2025

As we write this report (Sunday evening), the US Senate appears close to finding a compromise to end the six-week federal government shutdown, which will be a relief to financial markets as key economic data will begin being published again.

Meanwhile, this week will see a historic first: Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa will visit President Trump at the White House, making him the first Syrian president to do so. The meeting is important as the Trump Administration is bringing pressure to bear on the United Nations to lift sanctions on Syria and helping to usher the battle-scarred nation back into good graces of global trade and finance.

Trump and al-Sharaa will also discuss how to further cooperation in defeating ISIS forces' operations in Syria and how to deal with Hezbollah, which is seeking to rebuild after being decimated by Israel earlier this year (Note: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem is expected to give a televised speech on Wednesday on the terror organization’s strategic plans).

Also this week, G7 foreign ministers will gather in Ontario to discuss how to further support Ukraine and other geopolitical issues. This meeting takes place as the United Nations’ 30th Climate Conference (COP30) begins in Belem, Brazil. The United States is not participating for the first time, giving China and other nations a greater chance to direct the outcomes and direction of the UN’s global climate efforts.

Two important elections are being held this week: In Iraq, parliamentary elections are being held, and Shiite-controlled parties – sympathetic to Iran – are expected to win a majority. And Chile will hold presidential and parliamentary elections, which right-of-center parties are expected to win.

Also, this week (Tuesday), the major points of the trade deal President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping hammered out in their meeting on October 30 will go into effect.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, as we noted above, if the federal government shutdown ends, markets can expect the US October CPI reports to be published.

In Europe, the UK reports 3rd-quarter GDP on Thursday, Germany’s ZEW survey is out on Tuesday, and the Eurogroup meets on Thursday to discuss the fiscal situation in the EU.

In Asia, the major reports we are watching are China’s October inflation data, which is out on Sunday (today), and economic activity reports, which are out on Friday. Japan will see the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions, published on Tuesday, the Economy Watchers Survey on Wednesday, and the PPI on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, November 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Cambodia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (October)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-CELA (Community of Latin America and Caribbean States) Summit begins in Santa Marta, Colombia and runs through November 10. Hosted by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, the summit will focus trade, investment, and green and digital transition as well as fighting organized crime and human trafficking.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Climate Conference (COP30) officially begins in Belem, Brazil. The US will not be in attendance.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate under the agenda item “Small arms” [S/2025/670].

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump hosts Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the White House. al-Sharaa is the first Syrian president ever to visit the White House.

· Today is Constitution Day in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (October)

· Canada BoC Market Participants Survey

· Colombia Inflation Rate (October)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA WASDE Report

· EARNINGS: TYSONS FOOD

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Spanish King Felipe VI begins a four-day state visit to China.

· Norway’s Foreign Minister Eide meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing.

· The AI Summit takes place in Seoul, South Korea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech at the Okayama Club in Okayama, Japan.

· Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ Reuters Tankan Index (November)/Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Economic Index (September)

· Australia Building Permits (September)/ Private House Approvals (September)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (September)

· Kazakhstan PPI (October)

· EARNINGS: ANZ, Barrick Mining, Interpublic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French opposition leader, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, goes on trial for insulting a Muslim woman.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England deputy governor for monetary policy Clare Lombardelli makes opening remarks at the Bank of England and Bank of Ghana pan-African Central Bank Governors’ conference in Accra, Ghana.

· Romania Balance of Trade (September)

· Turkey Industrial Production (September)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (September)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (September)

· Greece Inflation Rate (October)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Ireland Industrial Production (September)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (October)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Hungary Budget Balance (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Egypt holds elections for its House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (October)

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (October)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (October)

Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Global

· G7 Foreign Ministers will meet in Ontario, Canada.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency begins its quarterly board meetings in Geneva.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing followed by consultations on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Veterans’ Day in the US. The federal government is closed as are bond markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on artificial intelligence and innovation at the Singapore FinTech Festival, Singapore.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Inflation Rate (October)

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (October)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/

· Mexico Industrial Production (September)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China begins its annual Singles’ Day shopping festival.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (November)/ NAB Business Confidence (October)

· Japan Current Account (September)/ Bank Lending (October)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (October)

· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q4

· Malaysia Construction Output Q3

· Indonesia Car Sales (October)

· China Vehicle Sales (October)/ New Yuan Loans (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (October)/ Total Social Financing (October)

· India RBI Auction

· EARNINGS: SoftBank, SEA, Sony

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Irish president-elect Catherine Connolly is inaugurated in Dublin Castle, succeeding Michael Higgins.

· The European Public Health Conference 2025 takes place in Helsinki, Finland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde sends a greeting message via video at the Conference Celebrating the 100th Anniversary of the Bank of Albania.

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene is a panelist at the UBS European Conference in London.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Claimant Count Change (October)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (October)

· Ireland Construction PMI (October)

· Turkey Retail Sales (September)/ Auto Production (October)/ Auto Sales (October)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (October)

· Slovakia Construction Output (September)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)/ Eurogroup Meeting

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (November)/ ZEW Current Conditions (November)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (October)

· EARNINGS: AB Dynamics, Porsche, Oxford Instruments, Vodafone

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iraq holds parliamentary elections.

· Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem delivers televised address.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Angola, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q3/ Unemployed Persons Q3/ Manufacturing Production (September)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (October)

· Angola Wholesale Prices (October)

Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold an election to fill an upcoming vacancy on the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

· OPEC releases its monthly oil production report.

· The International Energy Agency publishes its annual World Energy Outlook on global energy prospects

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Canadian Global Affairs Institute holds its Defense Procurement Conference 2025 in Ottawa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds the 2025 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda are scheduled to speak.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on payments at the 9th Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

· The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia holds its Ninth Annual Fintech Conference. SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham, and Acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill are scheduled to speak.

· White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to be interviewed by Carlyle co-founder David Rubenstein at the Economic Club of Washington.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on Fintech before the hybrid Ninth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before the Atlanta Economics Club's November luncheon.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks on “Perspectives on the Economy and the Financial Landscape" and participates in a moderated discussion before the 24th Annual Regional and Community Bankers Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/07)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/07)/ Redbook (November/08)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/07)

· Canada Building Permits (September)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (October)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (September)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (October)

· EARNINGS: Cisco, Rumble

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gives a speech on the Australian economy.

· Australia Home Loans Q3/ Investment Lending for Homes Q3

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (October)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (September)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (October)

· India Inflation Rate (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October/31)

· EARNINGS: Foxconn, Tencent

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. EU Finance Ministers will discuss macroeconomic and fiscal developments, fiscal policy coordination, and challenges facing the Euro area.

· Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev visits Moscow for bilateral meetings.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in the FIBI International Banking Conference 2025 "Competing for Growth - Ireland's Future as a Global FS Hub" in Dublin, Ireland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the BNP Paribas' 9th annual Global Markets Conference "Europe Reimagined: The Path to Empowerment" in London, United Kingdom.

· Bank of England Director of Financial Stability Strategy Lee Foulger gives the keynote speech at the Association of Financial Markets 20th annual European government bond conference.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Current Account (September)

· Romania Inflation Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Current Account (September)

· Italy Industrial Production (September)

· Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Guindos Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

· Serbia Inflation Rate (October)

· Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

· Russia Balance of Trade (September)

· EARNINGS: ABN Ambro, Bayer, BAE Systems, Eon, Swiss Life, RWE

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Semafor and the Dubai Chamber of Commerce will host the Dubai Business Forum USA in New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Zambia Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 13, 2025

Global

· South Africa hosts the G20 and T20 Summit in Johannesburg through Friday.

· The UN Security Council will vote on a draft resolution on 2140 sanctions. This will be followed by a briefing and consultations on Yemen. In the afternoon, the Council will vote on a draft resolution to renew the mandate of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA). And will vote on another draft resolution to renew the mandate of the United Nations Interim Force for Abyei (UNISFA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks on monetary policy at a fireside chat.

· Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh.

· Brazil Retail Sales (September)/ Car Production (October)/ New Car Registrations (October)/ Business Confidence (November)

· USA EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/07)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/12)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October & November)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October & November)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October & November)/ Monthly Budget Statement (October)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (October)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Walt Disney, Newsmax, Applied Materials, Merck

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The King and Queen of Thailand begin a four-day state visit to China. This is the first visit of Thai royalty to China in more than 50 years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (October)/ Visitor Arrivals (September)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/08)/ PPI (October)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/08)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Employment Change (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (August)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (October)

· EARNINGS: Singapore Airlines, Kioxia, Tencent, JD.com

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They have a large agenda including reviewing the European fiscal board annual report, energy taxation, recovery and resilience planning, and reviewing the G20 meeting from October.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the opening speech at the 6th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Resilience in times of disruption" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion "When uncertainty is certain: strategies for banks" at 6th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Resilience in times of disruption" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson moderates a panel discussion entitled "Climate and nature on the brink: what does it mean for banks?" at the 6th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Resilience in times of disruption" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machad moderates a panel discussion entitled "Resilience in action: from setbacks to strengths" at the 6th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Resilience in times of disruption" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Victoria Cleland, the chief cashier and executive director of payments at the Bank of England, is a panelist at the Singapore Fintech Festival.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (October)/ GDP (September)/ Business Investment Q3/ Goods Trade Balance (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Construction Output (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Labour Productivity Q3/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (October)

· France Unemployment Rate Q3/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Romania Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Hungary Industrial Production (September)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (October)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (October)

· Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin/ Industrial Production (September)

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Current Account (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (October)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/07)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· EARNINGS: Deutsche Telekom, Rolls-Royce, Siemens

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (October)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (September)/ Mining Production (September)

Friday, November 14, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook before the hybrid “Energy and the Economy: The Geography of Energy Flows" conference hosted by the Denver branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a fireside chat before the hybrid “Energy and the Economy: The Geography of Energy Flows" conference hosted by the Denver branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation before the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management annual conference.

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (September)/ Wholesale Sales (September)

· Colombia Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· USA EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/07)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/14)/ PPI (September and October)/ Retail Sales (September and October)/ Business Inventories (August and September)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (October)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (September)

· EARNINGS: Data Storage, AmpliTech, Quantum

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Japanese Foreign Ministry holds a meeting with NGOs and civil society organizations related to the “National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security” in Tokyo..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import Prices (October)/ Export Prices (October)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (October)

· Australia RBA McPhee Speech

· China House Price Index (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ FDI (YTD) (October)

· Malaysia Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (September)

· India WPI Food Index (October)/ WPI Fuel (October)/ WPI Inflation (October)/ WPI Manufacturing (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/31)/ Deposit Growth (October/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/07)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP (October)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (September)

· EARNINGS: Thai Airways, Tata Motors

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Budget) meets in Brussels. Ministers will review the Union budget for 2026.

· Doctors in the UK will begin a resident doctors' strike on Tuesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at the 6th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Resilience in times of disruption" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion "Finance and frontiers: geopolitics and banking" at 6th ECB Forum on Banking Supervision "Resilience in times of disruption" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives remarks at the Finance Day of COP30 (virtual)

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at the Workshop on International Macroeconomics and Finance "Globalization and the economics of the external sector" organized by the Swiss National Bank and Trinity College Dublin in Zurich, Switzerland.

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Germany Bundesbank Balz Speech

· Hungary Construction Output (September)

· France Inflation Rate (October)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Spain Inflation Rate (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

· Italy Balance of Trade (September)

· Poland Inflation Rate (October)

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (September)/ Employment Change Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

· Serbia Building Permits (September)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

· Russia Inflation Rate (October)

· EARNINGS: Allianz, Swiss Re, Tata Motors

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q3

Saturday, November 15, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chile General Elections

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (September)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs a panel discussion at the Chicago Booth Conference on the Global Economy and Financial Stability in London, United Kingdom.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The West Bank and Gaza celebrate Independence Day..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuador will hold referendums on whether to allow foreign military bases in the country and whether to remove state funding of political parties.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 11/9/25 Francis Kelly 11/9/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Is a Deal to Reopen the Federal Government At Hand? The New York and Philadelphia Fed Hold Conferences, the Fed Board Finalizes Bank Supervisory Rules, and It is Veterans’ Day on Tuesday

November 10 - 14, 2025

At the time of this writing (Sunday evening), it appears there is a chance the impasse in the Senate may be broken and the federal government could be back to work on Monday. But Tuesday is Veterans’ Day – a federal holiday – so, even if the government gets back to work, not much will be happening in Washington’s regulatory world.

We would note on Wednesday and Thursday, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank holds a conference on Fintech. SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham, and Acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill are scheduled to speak.

Also, the New York Federal Reserve Bank holds its Treasury Market Conference, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to speak.

And finally, the Federal Trade Commission is holding its 18th Annual FTC Microeconomics Conference. The conference, held in conjunction with the Tobin Center for Economic Policy at Yale, brings together scholars working in areas related to the FTC’s antitrust, consumer protection, and public policy missions.

Looking at the major events of last week, the Federal Reserve released its annual Financial Stability Report. Reading through it, the major themes and concerns are policy uncertainty around global trade, geopolitical risk, and the risk of central bank independence.

Also, last week, the Fed finalized plans to rewrite how it evaluates the nation’s largest financial institutions. The new ratings system will make it easier for them to achieve a “well-managed” rating, which will likely enable them to expand their product and service offerings.

The Fed also received a letter this past week from twelve members of the Senate Banking Committee, authored by Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), supporting the Board’s work to finalize a Basel III rulemaking. You can access the letter HERE.

We will update you if a deal to reopen the federal government is struck later this evening or early tomorrow morning. In the meantime, below is the full report of the (few) financial regulatory-related events we could find happening this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The U.S. Senate is scheduled to be out of session this week for the Veterans’ Day holiday.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives continues to be out of session as long as the Senate fails to pass a resolution to reopen the federal government. Should the Senate pass a resolution this weekend, the House is scheduled to be out of session for the Veterans’ Day holiday.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Wednesday, November 12, 12:00 p.m. – National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett speaks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, November 11, 10:25 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on artificial intelligence and innovation at the Singapore FinTech Festival, Singapore.

· Wednesday, November 12, 10:20 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on payments at the 9th Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

· Wednesday & Thursday, November 12 – 13 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia holds its Ninth Annual Fintech Conference. SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham, and Acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill are scheduled to speak.

· Wednesday & Thursday, November 12 & 13 – The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds the 2025 U.S. Treasury Market Conference. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda are scheduled to speak.

· Wednesday, November 12, 12:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the University of Cambridge Judge Business School, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Wednesday, November 12, 10:45 a.m. – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to speak at the New York Federal Bank’s 2025 U.S. Treasury Market Conference.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, November 12, 10:45 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia holds its Ninth Annual Fintech Conference.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Wednesday, November 12, 4:20 p.m. – Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham speaks at The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia holds its Ninth Annual Fintech Conference.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Thursday, November 13, 9:00 a.m. – Acting FDIC Chair Travis Hill speaks at The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia holds its Ninth Annual Fintech Conference.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday & Friday, November 13 & 14 – The Federal Trade Commission's Bureau of Economics and the Tobin Center for Economic Policy at Yale University will host the 18th Annual FTC Microeconomics Conference in Washington, D.C. This event will bring together scholars working in areas related to the FTC’s antitrust, consumer protection, and public policy missions.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, November 13, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board meets. The agenda is forthcoming.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday – Friday, November 12/13/14 – The American Agricultural Bankers Conference takes place in St. Louise, Missouri.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 11/4/25 Francis Kelly 11/4/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

We’re Into Week Six of the Government Shutdown, OCC Comptroller Gould is Giving Two Interesting Speeches, and, Beyond That, Nothing Really is Going on in Washington…

November 3 - 7, 2025

First, our apologies: We are a day late getting this out due to personal travel. But you really are not missing anything with the federal government shutdown now into week six. The only two major events/issues we would flag are two speeches being given by Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould on the future regulatory landscape. Gould, along with Fed Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, is clearly beginning to lay out what is likely to be an ambitious regulatory revamp in the coming year, so it might be wise to listen to what Gould has to say.

And speaking of Vice Chair Bowman, last week it was reported that Bowman is planning to reduce the banking supervision staff by 30 percent by the end of next year. That would bring the supervision and regulation division down to approximately 350 people (it was previously 500+).

Beyond that, there are a number of Fed speeches (nothing unusual here: There are always a number of Fed speeches every week, both from Board members and regional Fed presidents). We would note at the time of this writing, hope seems to be rising a bit that the government shutdown will end by the end of this week. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has told reporters he’s “optimistic.” We hope so!

Below is the full report of all financial regulatory events we could find happening this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The US Senate is in session, but there are no significant committee hearings scheduled. Most have been postponed due to the government shutdown.

House of Representatives

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time as the House remains out of session as long as the federal government is shutdown.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, November 3, 2:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, November 4, 3:30 p.m. (Madrid) – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision ice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on bank supervision and monetary policy at the 2025 Santander International Banking Conference, Madrid, Spain.

· Thursday, November 6, 3:30 p.m. Federal Reserve Board Governor Christoper Waller gives a speech on central banking and the future of payments at the Bank of Canada 2025 Annual Economic Conference in Ottawa, Canada.

· Thursday, November 6, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr participates in a virtual “Community Development" discussion hosted by Fed Communities.

· Thursday, November 6, 10:00 a.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a lecture on “The Natural Rate of Interest" before an event organized by the Goethe University Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

· Thursday, November 6, 10:00 a.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before an Economic Club of New York webinar.

· Thursday, November 6, 3:30 p.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Fixed Income Analysts Society, Inc.

· Thursday, November 6, 2:30 p.m. –Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Consumer Finance Institute" before the “New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets Conference 2025" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

· Friday, November 7, 8:00 a.m. (Frankfurt, Germany) – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2025, organized by the European Central Bank.

· Friday November 7, 7:00 a.m. – Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on AI and the Economy at the Euro20+, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

· Friday, November 7, 3:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech on Stablecoins and Monetary Policy at the BCVC Summit 2025, New York, New York.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Tuesday, November 4, 10:15 a.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will discuss the regulatory landscape for the federal banking system in a fireside chat at The Clearing House Annual Conference in New York.

· Thursday, November 6, 12:00 p.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will discuss issues shaping the future of banking and financial services at the Women in Housing & Finance Public Policy Lunch event in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Wednesday, November 5, 1:00 p.m. – The National Credit Union Administration has announced a new date for its public hearing on the staff draft budget for 2026-2027.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Thursday, November 6, 8:45 a.m. – 4:30 p.m. – The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will host the inaugural housing summit, “Building for Growth: Housing Solutions for a Stronger Economy” in partnership with the National Association of Home Builders at the Chamber’s headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, November 5, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “Roger Alford on the future of antitrust policy.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

Global Week Ahead

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Subscribe to our newsletter.