Recommended Weekend Read

What Impact Will Trump’s Latest Tariffs Have on 60 Targeted Countries? Cuba On the Brink, How DARPA Intends to Build Nuclear Reactors the Size of AA Batteries, and Inside Ukraine’s Kill Zone

July 31 - August 2, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.

Assessing the Impact of the Latest US Tariffs

• The State of U.S. Tariffs July 24, 2026 John Iselin/Yale University Budget Lab

  As of July 24th, the average statutory tariff rate stands at 11.1% after falling by about 0.3pp when Section 122 tariffs expired and were replaced with new tariffs under Section 301. Under current law, which includes several scheduled tariff increases in the coming months, this figure is set to be 11.8% by the end of this year. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the ultimate consumer price impact of current-law tariff policy to be about 0.7%. They also estimate household costs due to tariffs total about $1,100 annually under current law. Over the next ten years, the Lab estimates that current-law tariffs will raise about $1.9 trillion. These numbers are somewhat lower, though, after considering the negative impact of tariffs on GDP.

• Global Trade Alert’s panopticon on Section 301 forced labor final findings Hinrich Foundation

  Global Trade Alert repackaged the USTR’s 24 July final finding on its Section 301 probe on forced labor practices in 60 economies into 60 economy-specific PDFs as a handy trade research tool. New US Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% took effect on 60 economies for alleged forced-labor practices, with limited exemptions. The Global Trade Alert breaks down how the tariffs were levied based on each economy’s forced-labor import ban regime. USTR’s 431-page notice covers three parts: findings, tariff-schedule Annex I, and 15 exemption lists (Annex II) covering specific products and economies.

• The Big Exceptions to the American Manufacturing Jobs Decline Jiaxin (Jason) He Agglomerations

  The Trump Administration’s hope that its tariff policy would increase manufacturing jobs has failed to materialize. Even after a modest uptick in the last three months, the manufacturing sector lost 53,000 jobs in the year through June. It has now shed 300,000 jobs since its post-pandemic peak of 12.9 million in the second quarter of 2023. The short version of what we found is that nearly every manufacturing subsector has lost jobs since the post-COVID peak roughly three years ago. But this study also discovered a few intriguing exceptions, and each of them tells a useful story about recent trends in the U.S. economy. Jobs in two other subsectors - electrical components and transportation equipment - not only have grown since the peak but also have continued their growth throughout 2025. As of the end of last year, electrical components manufacturing employed 9.1 percent more workers than in 2019, while transportation equipment employed 5.8 percent.

Cuba

• Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism US State Department

  The US State Department, in a new report which ratchets up US-Cuba tensions to a new level, strongly accuses Cuba of waging “a sustained campaign of subversion against the United States. It is a campaign that has infiltrated the highest reaches of the U.S. government, recruited and cultivated generations of American activists, backed an unprecedented wave of left-wing terrorism on American soil, and carried out one of the most durable and damaging foreign intelligence penetrations in American history.” The report goes on to charge, “The Cuban campaign against America is unique. It is irregular and covert – even at the peak of its military power, Havana never possessed the capacity to defeat the United States in a conventional armed conflict. Instead, the Cubans perfected a new model for a long war of attrition, organized around espionage, infiltration, sabotage, proxy networks, and a revolutionary infrastructure designed to turn America against itself. In contrast to every other aspect of Cuba’s failed state, this model has yielded remarkable success.”

• Does Cuba Really Have Iranian Drones? Foreign Policy

  U.S. President Donald Trump recently said the United States is “looking into” whether Cuba is stockpiling Iranian drones and suggested that Washington could act if that’s the case. National security and Latin America experts told FP that it’s probable that Cuba has such drones, but they also emphasized that it’s extraordinarily unlikely that Havana is planning on taking offensive actions against the United States. The experts also believe that the recent alarm raised over drones in Cuba is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to establish a pretext for U.S. military action against the island as it works toward the goal of collapsing the government in Havana.
  
  

• The collapse of Cuba’s state-run economy is years in the making The Atlantic Council

  In April, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projected that the island’s economy would shrink by 6.5 percent in 2026. This projection is significantly worse than the October 2025 projection of practically zero growth. The pressure is mounting, but the economy’s collapse precedes the recent pressure campaign. Another projection, from the Economist Intelligence Unit, further downgraded the outlook to a 7.2 percent drop in total output for this year. To look at only this data gives an incomplete picture. To begin with, even though ECLAC conducts its own independent assessment, its projections are based on official statistics from the Cuban government, presenting a credibility issue. But even more important, the two-year window is too narrow a snapshot of the Cuban economy’s problems.

• Can Cuba Outlast Marco Rubio? Lee Schlenker/Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

  Shortly after four members of Congress returned from a fact-finding visit to Havana early last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a tranche of new sanctions against Cuba’s tourism, energy, trade and security sectors, the latest move in a months-long maximum pressure campaign intended to overthrow the island’s government by year’s end. Nonetheless, all signs indicate that progress in bilateral talks made back in March — when the U.S. “allowed” a Russian fuel tanker to dock in Havana, providing momentary relief for Cuba’s economy — has largely stalled, and other unconventional backchannels have petered out.
  
  

Big Strides in Energy Innovation and Drone Warfare

• How DARPA plans to get nuclear power in the size of a ‘AA battery’ Breaking Defense

  The biggest roadblocks to having transportable nuclear power, according to DARPA program manager Tabitha Dodson, come down to heat and weight. “There’s an enormous amount of energy inside a nuclear reaction, whether it’s fission or radioisotope,” Dodson told Breaking Defense. “[But] there is a lot of heavy and non-transportable hardware that deals with heat management for both fission and RTG [radioisotope thermal generators] systems. That heat management piece is always what drags down all of the dreams of transportable nuclear power.” As a way to bypass that roadblock, DARPA funded seven competing teams as part of its Rads to Watts program to refine a range of approaches to radiovoltaics. The objective of the multi-million-dollar program (full figures weren’t disclosed) is a new kind of miniature power cell that can run anything from satellites in space to tactical radios to pacemakers, tough enough to work for years or decades without recharging and in extreme environments that freeze or try traditional power systems.
  

• Inside Ukraine’s Kill Zone Reuters Graphics

  This fascinating, in-depth video/motion report by Reuters is the most detailed reconstruction yet of the new breed of battlefront. It will take you into the kill zone via a “fly-over” that starts 15 km inside Russian-held territory before heading to the contact line between the two sides and then 15 km further into Ukrainian-held land. The war, well into its fifth year, has become the first major conflict to be dominated by unmanned aerial vehicles, with thousands of the cheap but deadly machines filling the skies. Ukraine and invader Russia are constantly advancing the new technology, which is transforming modern warfare. Both sides have had to abandon age-old tactics of gathering troops, vehicles and artillery in a relatively compressed area along the front lines. Such visible targets are easy prey for drones.

• Killer Drones: Ready or Not, Here They Come American Enterprise Institute

  Lethal autonomy is arriving, regardless of preference or treaty. Shrinking populations and accelerating technology are pushing every military toward increasingly autonomous machines in the kill chain; the live question is whether the US or its adversaries set the bounds. Proliferated precision sensing and strike capabilities create two coupled operational problems: Concentrated forces are now fatally targetable, and the dispersal that addresses this problem depends on dataflows that are themselves an attack surface. Both problems demand uncrewed mass and bounded autonomy to attain scales of force that crewed forces alone cannot reach. The principal barrier is institutional, not technological. The color-of-money structure, Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution cadence, milestone-style test and evaluation approach, and platform-centric sustainment cannot develop capabilities that must iterate continuously—and service cultures resist capabilities that threaten dominant communities.

The Global Week Ahead

Markets Struggle to Understand Where the US-Iran War is Heading, Funeral for Senator Graham Brings World Leaders to Washington, Fujimori Becomes Peru’s President, and a Big Week for Central Banks and Earnings

July 26 - August 2, 2026

Markets are going into this week struggling to understand the trajectory and future implications of the US-Iran War.  Several new and significant turns have taken place in the last few days that are changing the complexion of the war.  The first being Houthi forces in Yemen, at the behest of Iran, attacked two Saudi oil tankers on July 23rd in the Red Sea with a combination of missiles and drones following a declaration they were imposing a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia overall - which followed a Saudi air attack on Sanaa, Yemen, which appeared to be targeting Iranian military advisors and senior Houthi military leaders.  Overall, more than a dozen ships have been attacked in and around the Red Sea/Hormuz corridor since July 6th.   And in the last 24 hours, Houthis have fired missiles at a Saudi Aramco oil refinery inside Saudi Arabia.

The second event happened Saturday (July 25th) and, for the first time, merged the US-Iran War with the Ukraine War when Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against an Iranian cargo ship and an Iranian naval vessel in the Caspian Sea.  Ukrainian officials said the cargo ship was carrying drone and missile components bound for Iran and that Kyiv considers such cargo "legitimate military targets." Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires, calling it a "hostile and criminal act" and that it was done "at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war."   Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has been on calls with Russia's Lavrov and the EU's Kallas about a response, saying it "cannot go unanswered."  This coincided with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remarking that Kyiv had noted Russia was passing on its satellite observations in the Middle East to Iran to enable it to direct strikes ⁠in the region.

If there is any good news coming out of the US-Iran War, it is that there were no attacks launched by either the US or Iran the last two nights.  It appears this is the result of a new round of negotiations between Iran and Oman from which there are reports of “progress.”

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates during the course of the week.  We had several meetings and discussions with regional and local bank presidents in the Midwest this past week.  We came away seeing a significantly heightened sense of anxiety and concern over economic conditions.  The fears are three-fold: 1) the unpredictability of when hostilities might end with Iran which is causing oil prices – especially diesel prices – and spike, 2) Rising risk the Federal Reserve may feel compelled to raise interest rates this week, and 3) President Trump imposing yet another round of tariffs – ranging from 10% to 12.5% - on 60 major trading partners while threatening new 50% tariffs on Canada in retaliation for wildfires burning in Canada.

Washington will see a remarkable and sad event this week: The funeral of Senator Lyndsey Graham (R-SC).  President Trump is scheduled to give the eulogy, and several world leaders are traveling to Washington to attend the service.  Among them are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  Both leaders will meet with Trump separately at the White House.

Zelenskyy is hoping to find a way to revive peace talks with Russia, but for now, Russia does not seem interested in pursuing a new peace track.  Ukrainian long-range drone strikes and missile strikes have been causing considerable damage to Russian military and energy facilities as well as logistical targets (including nine Wildberries facilities – Wildberries is Russia's largest e-commerce platform and considered the Amazon of Russia).

Peru will inaugurate Keiko Fujimori as the country's new president – the country's10th president since 2016 – after winning the race by less than 50,000 votes.  It was Fujimori's fourth presidential bid.  Her win, alongside Abelardo de la Espriella's in Colombia and José Antonio Kast's in Chile, is being read as part of a broader regional shift toward the conservative wing in Latin America — a reversal from the Chávez/Lula-era left tilt.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, this will be a particularly busy week.   Three major central bank meetings are taking place alongside a heavy data release schedule and a cascade of corporate earnings reports.

Breaking it down, in the US, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets this week.  While the Fed is likely to keep rates on hold, there has been a clear rise in market chatter suggesting a possible hike, creating a somewhat jittery market (as alluded to above in our meetings with bank presidents).  We are firmly with the consensus that they will hold.  Also, this week the PCE Index – which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – is out Friday.  It comes after the Conference Board's consumer confidence index on Tuesday, Q2 US GDP release on Thursday, and the PCE on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday on interest rates.  We are in consensus that they are likely to hold rates.   Also out on Friday will be the July Tokyo CPI, June retail sales, labor market data, housing start data, and industrial production figures.  China releases June industrial profits on Monday and July PMIs on Friday. 

Europe also has a busy week.  The Bank of England meets on Thursday to decide on interest rates – also likely to hold.   The German Ifo Survey is out on Monday, and July CPIs for Germany and Spain are out on Thursday and for Italy and France on Friday.  

Finally, the corporate earnings schedule is massive this week, led by several major global tech and financial firms.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will visit the United States, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Germany through Aug. 3rd.

• Today the Maldives celebrate Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

• Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

• Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Liberia celebrates Independence Day.

• The 18th U.S.-Africa Business Summit begins in Mauritius and runs through July 29th.   The theme of the summit is “Advancing New Frontiers in U.S.-Africa Prosperity,” and there is expected to be more than 2,500 participants, including numerous African heads of state, senior US government officials, and CEOs. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 27, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council will meet on the situation in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Trump travels to Michigan to deliver remarks on the economy.

• The US Senate is likely to hold a procedural vote on Director of National Intelligence nominee Jay Clayton.

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is expected to brief senior Trump Administration officials and members of Congress on the latest AI models.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Balance of Trade (June)

• USA Durable Goods Orders (June)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp (June)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (June)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (June)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)

• Canada BoC Market Participants Survey

• EARNINGS: Baker Hughs, Whirlpool, Rambus, Nucor

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his annual State of the Nation address to Congress. Over the past year, public discourse across the country has been consumed by the high-stakes impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, infrastructure corruption scandals, and persistent economic strain.

• Legislative assembly elections begin in Pakistan-controlled Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The economic surveillance unit AMRO (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office) will present its assessment of the region and provide updated growth and inflation forecasts for economies in Southeast Asia as well as China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. It will examine key risks and challenges affecting the regional outlook as the U.S.-Iran war drags on.

• China’s fashion retailer Shein files for its IPO.

• Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

• China Industrial Profits (June)

• Japan Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

• Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU finance ministers meet in Brussels for an ECOFIN budget session.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with State Duma (parliament) members to discuss current legislative work

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (July)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (June)/ Loans to Households (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (July)/ Ifo Current Conditions (July)/ Ifo Expectations (July)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (July)

• Greece Total Credit (June)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (July)

• EARNINGS: LVMH, AstraZeneca, Audi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to an open debate on the Middle East with particular focus on Palestinian affairs.  Deputy Special Coordinator Ramiz Alakbarov is expected to brief the council, with High Representative of the Board of Peace to Gaza Nickolay Mladenov.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Donald Trump is set to give a tribute at the funeral service of US Senator Lindsey Graham in Washington at the National Cathedral.

• President Trump is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington.  Netanyahu is in Washington for the memorial service of the late Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).   Interestingly, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid will also attend the memorial and meet with US members of Congress while in Washington (The Israeli elections are set for October 27th, the first elections since October 7, 2023).

• Trump will then meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House (Zelenskyy is also in Washington for the Graham memorial service).

• Peru’s President-elect Keiko Fujimori is sworn into office after winning June's runoff by fewer than 50,000 votes.  This was Fujimori’s fourth presidential bid. Her inauguration will have a number of right-leaning regional guests including Argentina's President Javier Milei, Chile's President José Antonio Kast, and Panama's President José Raúl Mulino, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. And Spanish King Felipe VI is likely to attend, as well. Argentinian President Javier Milei will continue to Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia for meetings.

• IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will visit Argentina through July 29th.

• South Dakota holds first-ever runoff in Republican gubernatorial primary runoff. The run-off was triggered by a quirky 1985 state law that states that if no candidate in a governor, U.S. Senate, or U.S. House primary clears 35% of the vote, the top two finishers go to a runoff eight weeks later. South Dakota is the only state with this 35% threshold rule.

• Special election in Georgia's 13th Congressional District following the death of Representative David Scott (D).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.

• Brazil Current Account (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (July)

• USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (June)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (June)/ Redbook (July/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Money Supply (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/24)

• Chile Interest Rate Decision

• EARNINGS: Boeing, UPS, Visa, Ford, Coca-Cola ASM, Mondelez, PayPal, Boeing, Corning, JetBlue, Royal Caribbean, Visa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The China International Game Developers Conference (CGDC) begins in Shanghai and runs through July 30th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch in Sydney.

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)

• Tawain Consumer Confidence (July)

• Malaysia PPI (June)

• India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

• EARNINGS: Singapore Air

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Fisheries Ministers through July 29th in Cork, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (July)/ Conventional Gilt

• France Consumer Confidence (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)

• Spain Unemployment Rate/ Retail Sales (June)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

• EARNINGS: Mercedes, GSK, Barclays, Kering, Air Liquide, Orange, Safran, Essilor Luxottica, Man Group, Unilever, LVMH, Michelin

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Israel Unemployment Rate (June)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Business Council holds the 9th Industrialization Week in Durban, South Africa through July 31st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on SCR 2745 sanctions. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies before the Senate Homeland Security & Government Affairs Committee. Committee Chairman Rand Paul subpoenaed Fauci last month after Fauci declined to appear voluntarily. The panel plans to question him about whether he lied to Congress during the pandemic about whether his office funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.  Paul has said he wants to ask whether Fauci funded gain-of-function research while telling Congress he hadn't, why certain records were destroyed, and why he sought a presidential pardon. Paul has also claimed declassified documents show Fauci "personally shaped" what the intelligence community told the public about COVID's origins, with 18 agencies relying on his guidance.  Fauci received a preemptive pardon from President Biden covering "certain" past federal conduct tied to his government role. Commentators note that the pardon doesn't protect him from lying now — any false testimony in this hearing would be new conduct outside the pardon's scope — which is part of why this hearing is being watched closely regarding whether he might invoke the Fifth Amendment. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces its interest rate decision.  Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference at 2:00 p.m. ET.

• Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations released

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/24)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/24)

• Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

• EARNINGS: Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, General Dynamics, Qualcomm, SoFi, Boston Scientific, ADP, Humana, Procter & Gamble, Robinhood, Qualcomm

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s newly created Intelligence Bureau begins operations. Japan is standing up its first centralized intelligence apparatus since World War II, replacing the existing Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office (CIRO) with two new bodies: 1.) The National Intelligence Council (NIC) — the top command-and-decision layer, chaired personally by PM Sanae Takaichi, with 10 members.  Its first meeting is set for July 31st, and 2.) The National Intelligence Bureau (NIB) — the operational arm, tasked with gathering, integrating, and analyzing intelligence across government. It'll be led by Kazuya Hara, a former senior police official currently serving as director of Cabinet intelligence. Budget is roughly $407 million, with hiring focused on cybersecurity specialists, software engineers, and liaison officers. Full operations are expected by December.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has framed the launch of the new intelligence service as "a first step" in a broader effort to unwind postwar constitutional restrictions on Japan's security posture, alongside her push for arms-export liberalization. What is driving all this is growing awareness in Japan of increased (and more aggressive) Chinese, Russian, and North Korean activity  - as recently reported in the New York Times that dozens of Russian intelligence operatives have relocated to Japan in recent years to source and reroute sanctioned weapons components.

• Today, Wallis and Futuna Territory Day is observed, marking the islands’ 1961 transition to a French Overseas Territory.

• Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Australia Inflation Rate (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (June)/ CPI (June)/ Quarterly Inflation Rate/ Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (June)/

• Singapore Import/Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

• Japan BoJ JGB Purchase

• EARNINGS: SK Hynix, Nomura, Arm, CPKC

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Italy Private Sector Credit (June)/ Industrial Sales (May)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (July)

• UK           BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Approvals (June)/ Mortgage Lending (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)

• Greece Unemployment Rate (June)

• Ireland GDP Growth Rate

• Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Corporate Profits (May)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

• Germany Import Prices (June)

• EARNINGS: Aston Martin, Rio Tinto, Airbus, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered, BASF, Eni, L’Oreal, Airbus, Danone, Hermes, Remy Cointreau, Aberdeen, Aston Martin Lagonda, Glencore, Pirelli, Porsche, Electrolux

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Mine ENTRA 2026 Conference begins in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe and runs through July 31st.  The conference brings together major mining, engineering, and transport leaders to discuss critical mineral extraction and export flows.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

• Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council holds the first straw poll on nominees to be the next Secretary-General.  It is a secret straw poll to determine which candidates have enough support to stay in the race, with the fifteen members currently discussing six candidates. In successive rounds, council members will be asked to indicate for each candidate whether they are "encouraged," "discouraged," or express "no opinion," repeating the process until a clear frontrunner emerges.  There are currently four formal candidates: Michelle Bachelet, Rafael Grossi, Rebeca Grynspan, and Macky Sall. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Senate Judiciary Committee votes on Todd Blanche’s nomination to be Attorney General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Net Payrolls (June)

• Mexico GDP Growth Rate/ Fiscal Balance (June)

• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)

• USA PCE Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv/ Personal Income (June)/ Personal Spending (June)/ GDP Price Index Adv/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/25)/ PCE Price Index  (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/18)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ PCE Prices Adv/ GDP Sales Adv/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/25)/ PCE Prices Adv/ Real Consumer Spending Adv/ Real Personal Spending (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/  EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/24)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/29)

• Columbia Business Confidence (June)

• EARNINGS: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Coinbase, Bristol Meyers Squibb, Valero, Altria, Stellantis, Blue Owl, Huntsman, Reddit, Canada Goose, Hershey

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The island nation of Vanuatu celebrates its Independence Day.

• The Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show runs through Aug. 9, with a plug-in hybrid electric car announced earlier this year by China's BYD likely to be the highlight of the show. Auto industry players will be watching for hints on whether BYD will become a serious rival to Japanese automakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Barrenjoey Economics Forum in Sydney.

• South Korea Business Confidence (July)

• Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/25)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)

• Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)

• Australia Building Permits (June)/ Import/Export Prices/ Private House Approvals (June)/ RBA Hunter Speech

• Singapore Unemployment Rate

• Thailand Industrial Production (June)

• EARNINGS: Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic, Keppel

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates. Additionally, the BoE releases its summary of monetary policy and minutes of the committee meeting.

• UK Car Production (June)/

• France GDP Growth Rate/ Household Consumption (June)

• Romania Unemployment Rate (June)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate

• Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

• Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)

• Germany GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

• Italy GDP Growth Rate/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

• Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

• Greece PPI (June)

• Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

• Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

• Russia GDP (June)

• EARNINGS:  Shell, Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic Yum! Brands, TataSteel, ArcelorMittal, Societe Generale, British American Tobacco, BAE Systems, Renault, ING, Lloyds Banking Group, Air France-KLM, Heidelberg Materials, Stellantis, Rolls-Royce, Adidas, Prada, BMW, Renault, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Ferrari, Anglo-America, BAE Systems, Lloyds, London Stock Exchange, Rolls Royce, Prada, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (June)

Friday, July 31, 2026

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Trump will hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David.

• National Governors Association summer meeting begins in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and runs through August 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ PPI (June)

• Canada GDP (May)/ GDP (June)/ Budget Balance (May)/ Budget Balance (April)

• USA Employment Cost - Benefits / Employment Cost - Wages/ Employment Cost Index/ Chicago PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (July)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/31)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/31)

• Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

• Columbia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

• Peru Inflation Rate (July)

• EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, AutoNation, AbbVie, Magna, Moderna

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (July)

• Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ PPI/ Housing Credit (June)/ PPI/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (July)

• South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ Tokyo CPI (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)/ BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS General PMI (July)

• Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Business Confidence

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

• Thailand Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption (June)/ Private Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (July)

• Philippines Business Confidence (June)

• Taiwan DP Growth Rate Adv

• Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate July)

• India Government Budget Value (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)/ M3 Money Supply (July/15)

• EARNINGS: Sony, JERA, Maruti Suzuki

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

•  Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill and BoE Director of Monetary Analysis Fergal Shortall will give a virtual National Agency briefing.

• Ireland Retail Sales (June)

• Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (July)

• Hungary PPI (June)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

• France Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Tourism Revenues/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

• Poland Inflation Rate (July)

• Italy Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

• Spain Current Account (May)

• Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

• Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

• Greece Retail Sales (May)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

• Ukraine Current Account (June)

• EARNINGS: Credit Agricole, EDF, Axa, Engie, Puma, OMV, Pearson, Taylor Wimpey

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa Budget Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Global

• Denmark assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The current interim Venezuelan government will begin formal talks with Venezuela’s US-backed opposition.  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has framed the overall US approach to negotiations and move toward eventual elections as a three-phase plan: political stabilization, economic recovery, transition. However, the devastating late-June earthquakes (5,000+ dead, ~$37bn in damage per UN estimates) have added urgency as reconstruction financing is seen as contingent on political certainty.

• Complicating the situation further is the fact thatthe opposition itself is split — Dinorah Figuera, who headed the 2015 National Assembly, which is the last assembly formally recognized by the US Government, has pointedly distanced herself from Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, who's running a separate, parallel initiative on the transition question.

• Guam holds primary elections for the US House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

• Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate/ PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Switzerland National Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Russia M2 Money Supply (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Benin celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (July)

Sunday, August 2, 2026

Global

•  The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting takes place to evaluate and decide output targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The full provisions of the EU Artificial Intelligence Act come into force.

North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

• July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.

• July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.

·       August 7 – Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is sworn into office.

• August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

• September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

• September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

• September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

• September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

• October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

• October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

• October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

• October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
  November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held.  All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

• November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

• November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

• December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The House is Gone Until September, The CLARITY Act is On a Knife’s Edge, The CFPB is a Step Closer to Having a New Director, and DoJ’s Antitrust Division Streamlines Merger Reviews

July 27 - 31, 2026

Washington is quickly going quiet in advance of the traditional August recess. The House of Representatives is now gone until September 7th, and the Senate is here for two more weeks before leaving for its August recess.

The House was able to vote on two major bills before they left, including a “clean” Continuing Resolution (CR) to extend current funding levels for the federal government through December 4th. It is highly unusual for Congress to move so early in the year on a CR, but with the very limited legislative calendar between now and the November midterms (by our count, 15 days), House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) decided it would be better to err on the side of caution and avoid a government shutdown just before the elections.

While the Senate is highly unlikely to approve the House version, negotiations between the House and Senate have already begun in the hope that the House and Senate can vote on a compromise in September before the end of the fiscal year, thereby avoiding a shutdown.

The other major bill the House voted on before leaving is a new Reconciliation bill – the 3rd reconciliation bill of this Congress. While the majority of the bill is focused on defense and intelligence spending ($73 billion combined), there is also $12 billion for farm relief and assistance programs for farmers.

With that in mind, there are still several financial services-related bills hoping to reach the finish line before the midterm elections. Perhaps the biggest is the landmark crypto bill – the CLARITY Act – which is hung up in the Senate despite months of bipartisan negotiations.

This past week, a new revised version - 616 pages long - was unveiled. But that giant THUD! sound you might have heard was the Democrats’ reaction to it. The biggest issue is that they are not happy with the bill’s ethics provisions aimed at policing the involvement of senior politicians and government employees. For Senate Democrats looking at President Trump’s family crypto business, this is a “Must Do/Must Have” issue. But the White House has strongly opposed all Democratic proposals on the issue – and without Democrats’ support, we think the bill will end up dying this year. However, there are reports a last-minute bipartisan group of senators is working to come up with compromise ethics language – so, let’s see if that works before declaring the bill dead.

Also, this past week, the House voted on legislation restricting the ability of members of Congress and their families to buy and sell stocks. However, this bill is also on death’s door as House Republicans inserted a last-minute provision in the bill that is effectively the SAVE Act – the election reform measure President Trump is demanding that requires proof of citizenship and photo ID to register to vote in federal elections (and no way is going to pass in the Senate – so it either comes out of the bill or the whole bill dies in September).

Also, this past week, Brian Johnson, President Trump’s choice to run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), had his confirmation hearing in the Senate Banking Committee. Our guess is that there is a slim chance Johnson could be confirmed before the Senate leaves for the August recess, but more likely in September. The most interesting part of his confirmation hearing was that he refused to endorse efforts to eliminate the agency. Several Senate Republicans have been seeking either to close the agency or roll it up into another bank regulatory agency – something most observers thought the Trump Administration was aiming to do.

Meanwhile, over at the Justice Department, the Antitrust Division announced it intends to further revamp merger review guidelines, as well as present a new model timing agreement. All in all, the effort is aimed at substantially reducing what companies will be required to produce as part of the reviews.

Also of note, President Trump nominated Adam Candeub, the General Counsel of the Federal Communications Commission, to be the new Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust. He will fill the gap created when Gail Slater was fired as Assistant Attorney General last year.

Looking ahead, it is going to be very quiet. No congressional hearings, no major regulatory meetings, and no speeches by Fed Governors or other major regulators.

Below and attached is our report on financial regulatory-related events for the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• There are no pertinent hearings scheduled in the Senate this coming week.

House of Representatives

• The House is in August recess until September 1st.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

• ·Tuesday & Wednesday, July 28 & 29 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets on interest rates. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on July 29th.

Conferences –

• No events are scheduled as the Federal Reserve is in its Quiet Period in advance of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this coming week.

U.S. Treasury Department

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• ·Thursday, July 30, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

• Wednesday, July 29, 1:00 p.m. The CFTC’s Agricultural Advisory Committee (AAC), will hold its first meeting of 2026 at CFTC Headquarters in Washington, D.C. Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) will attend the meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Wednesday, July 29, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled “North American Trade at a Crossroads.”

• Wednesday, July 29, 8:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2026 Tax Conference in New York.

• Thursday, July 30, 1:00 p.m. – 4:45 p.m. – The American Bankers Association holds the Women Lead Symposium (virtual).

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Recommended Reading/Watching

• Make IPOs Great Again: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins on Ending Regulation By Enforcement  Uncommon Knowledge/Hoover Institution

  America was an investment before it was a nation.” That idea anchors this video conversation between SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and Uncommon Knowledge host Peter Robinson. Atkins argues that vibrant capital markets are essential to American prosperity and explains why he believes excessive regulation has discouraged companies from going public and innovators from building in the United States. The discussion also covers crypto, disclosure rules, investor protection, and the role of free markets in driving economic growth.

• Model Risk Managers See Growing Regulatory Divergence Risk Risk.Net

  The first rewrite of US model risk supervisory guidance in 15 years has received a mixed reception from the banks whose frameworks it governs, a Risk.net study finds, even as two-thirds say they expect to revisit their materiality and tiering frameworks and nearly half to redraw the scope of their model definition entirely as a result. Just four of 22 banks tackling the question in Risk Benchmarking’s study deem SR 26-2, the revised interagency letter, issued in April, a significant step forward.

• The Economics of Regulatory Reform Jeff Rosen/Yale Journal on Regulation

  In April 2026, the White House Council of Economic Advisers issued the 2026 Economic Report of the President. Though seemingly not much noticed to date, Chapter 2 of that report is titled “Promoting Prosperity through Regulatory Reform”. the chapter reviews research on regulatory accumulation, and notes that the number of binding federal regulatory restrictions grew from roughly 400,000 in 1970 to more than 1.1 million in 2024, contributing to higher compliance costs and slower economic growth. It cites one study estimating that the expansion of the administrative state reduced annual GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points between 1980 and 2012, implying that the economy would be nearly 25 percent larger today—about $5.4 trillion in additional output—absent that regulatory surge.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Russia’s Challenging Homefront, China’s External Challenges, The Labor Market Impacts of GLP’s, and How Markets Are Looking to New Places (including oceans) for Critical Minerals

July 24 - 26, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.

What is Happening Inside Russia?

• The Burden of Return: Russia’s Veterans, Regional Strain, and the Politics of Reintegration  Delphi Global

  The scale of the challenge of veteran reintegration in Russia is already outpacing state capacity, with just a fragment of war participants having returned and demobilized. The Prosecutor General publicly berated the government for lagging in the employment and registration of returning soldiers. At the same time, independent reporting confirms widespread stigmatization of veterans in broader society and a lack of service delivery. The Kremlin’s political priority is ensuring the political loyalty of returning soldiers and preventing them from turning into a political force, not improving service delivery. The costs of wider reintegration are being systematically shifted onto regional budgets and, ultimately, the private sector at precisely the moment both are under acute fiscal stress. The resulting squeeze means that the sustained, diffuse costs of veteran healthcare, disability support, and employment - which fall disproportionately on subnational governments and employers - will act as a structural drag on Russia’s public finances and private sector for years to come. According to a February 2025 analysis of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, by the end of 2024 the number of severely wounded service members was already 376,000, with around half of them having lost limbs.
  

• Rebuilding to Reconquer: Can Russia’s Defense Firms Deliver?  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  By some estimates, the scale of state-backed corporate borrowing in Russia is estimated to have ballooned to over $446 billion, with much of that money directly and indirectly supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Overall, in the post-2022 period, Russia has expanded domestic arms production to replace battlefield losses and meet future demand, with defense enterprises at the center of this effort. This report offers the first in-depth examination of five Russian defense firms that cover a broad cross-section of Russia’s defense sector: four major, well-established defense enterprises—Uralvagonzavod, Almaz-Antey, KRET, and Kalashnikov—and a new defense player, Ushkuynik. Together, these firms play central roles in the design, production, scaling, and supply of key systems—tanks and other armored vehicles (Uralvagonzavod), air defense systems (Almaz-Antey), electronic warfare (KRET), artillery and precision weapons (Kalashnikov), and drones (Ushkuynik). The report analyzes the internal and external factors shaping their production dynamics—including historical background and organizational structure, scale of production both before and after the full-scale invasion, revenue and procurement patterns (where possible), labor constraints, and evolving networks of foreign suppliers—and assesses what these trends imply for Russia’s ability to meet current wartime and future reconstitution goals.

China’s External Challenges

• The Gulf’s China Problem Foreign Affairs

  The war in Iran has unsettled the Gulf. Arab states are increasingly frustrated with the United States, which, after launching a war that wreaked havoc on global energy markets, failed to keep them safe from Iranian strikes. But the war is also forcing these countries to reassess their relationship with China. Beijing’s wait-and-see approach to the war and unwillingness to use its leverage over Tehran to contain the conflict have disabused Gulf Arab states of any lingering expectation that China could become an important security partner in the foreseeable future.

• Troubled Straits: Analyzing Trade Chokepoints in the South China Sea Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Each year, trillions of dollars of goods flow through the South China Sea, making it the world’s most consequential maritime corridor. The region is also a hotbed of geopolitical tensions that threaten to upturn global commerce. Despite the enormous stakes, the sea’s critical chokepoints have been poorly understood—until now. This CSIS brief and its companion interactive dashboard offer groundbreaking insight into the value and types of goods transiting eight different South China Sea chokepoints. The new data reveals the extent of each country’s reliance on each chokepoint and challenges existing notions about the importance of these chokepoints.

• The Second China Shock - How This Time Is Different Brad Setser/Markus Academy Podcast

  Brad Setser, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior US Treasury and US Trade Representative, joined Markus’ Academy for a two-part conversation on the Second China Shock and the Second Coming of Global Imbalances. We will share the second part with implications for Europe tomorrow. Setser’s slides are available here. A summary in three bullets:

  • Concentration and bifurcation: compared to the imbalances of the 2000s or 2010s, today surpluses are concentrated in East Asia, China above all. China’s economy is now bifurcated: exports surge while domestic demand stalls, and due to import substitution policies domestic demand has decoupled from imports;

  • The financial flows have reversed: the pre-GFC’s safe-asset scarcity has ended. Reserve accumulation has stalled, and surpluses are no longer recycled into Treasuries;

  • The mismeasurement of China’s investment income account understates its true surplus, lifting the yuan’s implied undervaluation to ~30%, versus the ~19% implied by the officially-reported surplus (the IMF’s own estimate of undervaluation is smaller still).
    

• Malign Alignment: How China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) Threaten the US and Our Allies George W. Bush Presidential Center

  China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, known together as CRINK, threaten democratic institutions, global security, mineral supply chains, and human rights by challenging the credibility of U.S. leadership. This report breaks down the four major challenges posed by the CRINK alliance and argues the US and its allies can counter their efforts by collective innovation, emerging military technologies, and strategic policy shifts.
  
  

More on the Impact of GLP’s on Society and Markets

• The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s N. Meltem Daysal, Camille Fredrickson, Ida Kristiansen, Mircea Trandafir, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years.
  

Latin America’s Growing Space Capabilities

• The Space Race Comes to Latin America  Americas Quarterly

  Why would Ecuador - specifically the area of Guayaquil of all places - be a focus in Latin America’s new space race? Well, the answer is in the country’s name. The Guayaquil area is strategic for a different reason: It sits just two degrees south of the imaginary line dividing the world into two hemispheres. The planet rotates at its maximum speed at the equator—1,040 miles (1,670 kilometers) per hour—making it more efficient to launch rockets from these latitudes. Thanks to the rotational boost, less fuel is needed to reach orbital velocity, which in turn means rockets can carry more payload at a lower cost. Compared to many other countries that sit directly on the equator—a list that includes Congo, Somalia, Uganda and Indonesia, as well as Colombia and Brazil—Ecuador, with its dollarized economy and business-friendly government, looks attractive despite its security challenges
  

• Latin America Has a Space Agency. Now Comes the Hard Part  Americas Society

  The Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency (ALCE) held its first general assembly in Mexico in February, marking the transition of a five-year-old diplomatic ambition into an operational institution. Of the 18 countries that signed the agency’s founding convention in 2021, only 11 ratified it. The challenge ahead is making it matter.
  

• Brazil’s Landmark Satellite Program  Americas Quarterly

  Amazônia-1, the first satellite entirely designed and operated by Brazil, is part of a larger mission. The country plans to put two new units into orbit as part of a mission to observe and monitor deforestation in the Amazon, natural resources, and agricultural areas.
  

Critical Minerals

• Is vanadium the future of critical minerals? Kazakhstan hopes so  Javier Piedra/Asia Times

  Vanadium is viewed as a critical mineral by the United States, the European Union, Russia, China and many other countries because of its importance to energy storage and industrial alloys. Of the critical metals that will define the next half-century, vanadium has perhaps the strongest claim to indispensability: it hardens the steel in our infrastructure and defense systems, and it stores the energy that our grids will increasingly depend on. Yet the market has consistently failed to price that future in, and nowhere is that mispricing more visible than in the vanadium deposits of Kazakhstan.
  

• Seawater holds enough lithium and magnesium for the next 50,000 years, scientists say  Interesting Engineering News

  Researchers in the US have begun developing seawater mining technologies after estimating that just 0.1 percent of seawater has enough critical minerals to supply humanity for the next 50,000 years. Scientists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) believe the world’s oceans contain one of the greatest untapped reserves of critical minerals. These include lithium, magnesium, manganese, cobalt and rare earth elements that are essential for electronics and clean energy.
  

• Critical Minerals: Why Rare Earths Now Shape Defense Power Abby Lilly/Foresight (The Tawazun Council for Defense Enablement – UAE)

  The strategic landscape of defense has shifted dramatically. Where once our supply chain focus centered on optimizing logistics, trimming costs and meeting predictable lead times, today it is inseparable from national security. The raw materials that enable the most advanced weapon systems, such as rare earth elements, gallium, germanium, tungsten, indium, and a growing list of specialty metals, have moved from obscure commodities to the very building blocks of modern military supremacy. Critical minerals are now a strategic constraint on readiness.

• · Mining the deep ocean Natasha Gilbert/Knowable Magazine

  More than 13,000 feet below the surface of the Pacific Ocean, a more-than-70- ton machine trundled like a tank on its caterpillar tracks for a tenth of a mile — sucking up potato-sized nodules of rock packed with copper, manganese, cobalt and nickel. It was 2022, and that pilot run of a subsea harvester by a Canadian business, The Metals Company, was pronounced a success. The company is working to get a green light to deploy similar machines for commercial harvesting over an area of 65,000 square kilometers, to extract over 600 million metric tons of nodules. There are riches on the ocean floor — round deposits made up of tightly packed layers of critical minerals that have long been out of reach. But not anymore. The pursuits of The Metals Company are among 31 initiatives by companies, governments and state-owned enterprises — including China, India and the Republic of Nauru, a tiny island nation in the southwestern Pacific Ocean — to collect nodules for analysis and to test mining equipment.

• The Faults of Long-Term Thinking on Critical Minerals Critical Supply Substack

  The debate over critical minerals is presenting long-term policies that do not alleviate the immediate concerns with this supply chain. As these goods continue to be weaponized by the People’s Republic of China, lawmakers should be thinking of short-term solutions too. Plus, China’s latest AI model is casting doubt on Western leadership — are those concerns justified? Lastly, experts explain the latest political developments in Ukraine.

The Global Week Ahead

The US-Iran Further War Escalates, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet, Britain Gets a New Prime Minister as IMF Issues Warning, Lebanon’s President Travels to Meet Trump, Trump’s Tariffs Set to Expire, and the ECB and PBoC Meet on Interest Rates

July 19 - 26, 2026

Fighting between the US and Iran is likely to further escalate in the coming week as the fragile cease-fire brokered last month is declared “functionally dead." Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Sunday that President Trump’s signature on the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was ‘worthless and unreliable.” And an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran has “no plans for negotiations.”  

US attacks on Iranian military positions and infrastructure significantly ramped up this weekend following an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan, killing three US servicemen, and the killing of a US serviceman in Northern Iraq by an Iranian drone.  Iranian missile and drone strikes have also hit US sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.

At this point, Iran’s rhetorical posture is now uniformly rejectionist across the Supreme Leader's office, Iran's negotiating team, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry — a marked shift from the ambiguity and disunity heard in early July.  The best bet for a return to a ceasefire and a possible return to the negotiating table is via Omani and Pakistani diplomatic efforts.  Still, for now, those efforts are falling on deaf ears in Tehran.

Adding to tensions in the region, the Saudi-Houthi truce that has been in effect since 2022 may now be breaking down, threatening a second war front in the Gulf region.  The truce began unraveling on July 13th when air strikes by Yemen's internationally recognized government (seen as being backed and assisted by Saudi Arabia) blocked an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthis delegation, which included Iranian military experts, from landing in Sanaa, Yemen, which is under control of the Houthis.  The Houthis retaliated by firing missiles at the Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia. 

Markets will also be watching Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's visit to Washington to meet with President Trump.   This is Aoun's first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as President, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009. 

The White House is hoping to bolster Aoun's efforts to help de-escalate Israeli-Hezbollah fighting in southern Lebanon and begin moving on a plan to disarm Hezbollah fighters (something Hezbollah leaders adamantly refuse to do).   The Trump-Aoun meeting could also result in an announcement of new investment funding to help rebuild the beleaguered country following years of war.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers will be gathering in Manila, the Philippines, this week.  Joining them will be US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, Japan, and the UK.   The meeting will focus on hammering out a South China Sea code of conduct to cool tensions among China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. 

But the real action may be on the sidelines as markets will be watching for any bilateral meetings between Rubio and Wang or between Rubio and Lavrov to discuss Ukraine peace talks.  Additionally, Rubio and the foreign ministers of Japan, India, and Australia will hold a Quad meeting to discuss security issues of mutual concern.

In London, Andy Burnham will formally become the UK's new prime minister, the seventh prime minister the country has had since 2016.  Burham is facing a host of economic challenges that were made tougher this week by the IMF warning against raising the top income tax rate, as it assesses that this will further hurt the economy.  Burnham is seeking a way to offset rising energy costs in the wake of the Iran War.

Back here in Washington, the Trump Administration's 10% Section 122 tariffs are set to expire later this week.  The President put these tariffs in place to replace the tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court earlier this year.  Trump cannot renew the tariffs – only the US Congress can do that – but he can effectively do so by raising the rate to 15%, something he has said he intends to do.  The rationale for the higher rates, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative, is that they will be human rights violations in more than 50 countries (see below for the full list of countries targeted).   Also this week, Brazil gets its own, separate Section 301 25% tariffs imposed by President Trump.

Turning the global economic and financial radar screen, the big events this week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on rates and the People's Bank of China's decision on rates.  

While the ECB meeting will dominate European market news, a few other important reports will be released this week.  The UK releases labor figures on Tuesday and June CPI numbers on Wednesday.  And the July ZEW surveys for Germany are out on Tuesday.

In Asia, aside from the PBoC interest rate announcement, Japan's trade balance is released on Wednesday, and the June CPI is released on Friday. 

Here in the US, initial jobless claims are released on Thursday, and flash PMIs and new home sales are released on Friday.  And Canada's June CPI is out on Monday, and May retail sales data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Global

·       The World Cup Championship is played in New Jersey.

·       Talks to develop rules on deep-sea mining continue at the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica through July 24th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines will host the 59th Association of Southeast Asian Nations Foreign Ministers' Meeting and related meetings in Manila through July 24th.

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul begins a two-day visit to Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Community of West African States will hold the bloc's 69th Ordinary Summit of heads of state and government in Sierra Leone.

·       São Tomé and Principe hold presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 20, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on Haiti, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu is set to visit Washington, D.C. (and possibly Miami, Florida) as a preparatory meeting for President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to the US in September.

·       Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday. Outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to give a national speech calling for the mobilization supporters in opposition to the incoming government.

·       The United States and Mexico will hold the third round of bilateral talks on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board is in a Quiet Period in advance of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meetings.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Common (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean  (June)/ CFIB Business Barometer (July)

·       USA CB Leading Index (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Dominos, Zions Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia will host Exercise Pitch Black, military drills involving 20 countries, through Aug. 7.

·       Today is Marine Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/ Loan Prime Rate 5Y (July)

·       Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       India Infrastructure Output (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Andy Burnham is set to be sworn in as the UK’s new Prime Minister, becoming the country’s seventh premier since the 2016 Brexit vote.  He will enter 10 Downing Street after meeting with King Charles.  Burnham takes office just as the IMF issued a warning that the UK cannot boost public spending, something the new Prime Minister to do to deal with the energy shock caused by the Iran War.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Mario Draghi on competitiveness in Brussels.  The meeting is a follow-up to Draghi’s landmark report last year detailing how and why the EU needs to streamline regulation and slash red tape.

·       Romania's Parliament will hold an extraordinary session on legislation tied to the country's EU recovery funds, during which President Nicusor Dan aims to have a new government sworn in.

·       There will be an informal of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Research and Innovation) through July 21st in Brussels.

·        A delegation of EU Members of Parliament from the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will be in Washington D.C. this week to discuss the global economic and the geopolitical outlook, the US political agenda, and developments in the fields of banking and finance. They will meet members of the House of Representatives, officials from the Treasury, the IMF, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodities and Futures Exchange Commission. MEPs will also meet with representatives from think tanks and civil society organizations.

·       The Farnborough International Airshow begins in Hampshire, England, with investors watching for major aircraft deals

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (June)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (June)/Employment Growth (June)/ Industrial Production  (June)/ PPI (June)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (May)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (June)

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index  Q2

·       Jordon Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Commission’s Joint 9th Specialized Technical Committee (STC) on Finance, Monetary Affairs, Economic Planning and Integration begins in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.  Concurrently, the 5th STC on Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals runs through July 24th — this is the AU's main finance-and-trade ministerial track, relevant for AfCFTA implementation and critical minerals positioning.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. This is Aoun’s first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as president, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009.  The White House is hoping to advance the June 26 framework agreement with Israel, with talks focusing on Israeli troop withdrawal and extending Lebanese state authority in the south. The meeting comes one week after the US, Israel, and Lebanese negotiators met in Rome where they agreed on a "pilot zones" arrangement.  The White House is also hoping to publicly give Aoun US backing to strengthen his position at home, where Hezbollah rejects both the framework and disarmament. Aoun himself has called the framework "not ideal" but reflective of the balance of power and says he expects positive outcomes. Markets should watch to see if a withdrawal timeline is set for Hezbollah forces and any significant financing commitments for reconstruction of Lebanon.

·       US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Joint Chiefs of Staff are scheduled to testify before the US Senate Appropriations Committee on the Administration’s requested $80 billion request for Iran War operations.  The hearing will likely spill over into hard questions about war authorization from Congress (or the lack thereof), the status of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of Iran strikes on Gulf States and US military facilities based there.

·       The US Intelligence Committee is expected to vote on the nomination of Jay Clayton to be the next Director of National Intelligence.  A full Senate vote could come by the end of the week.

·       Arizona holds a primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanael Benjamin speak at the OMFIF Conference in London.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (May)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (July)/18/API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (July/17)

·       Columbia Imports/Balance of Trade (May)/ SE Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (June)

·       EARNINGS: Halliburton, Ally, Danaher, Charles Schwab, 3M, General Motors, MSCI, Alaska Air, EQT, CapitalOne, Equifax, Hasbro, Marsh & McClennan, Northrup Grumman, Novartis

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 59th ASEAN foreign ministers begins and runs through July 24th in Manila, the Philippines. The meeting will also see the foreign ministers of the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, Australia, Canada and the U.K in attendance as special guests.  The agenda will cover the South China Sea Code of Conduct, which the Philippines hopes to see finalized but probably will not happen as many countries – especially China – have fundamental differences over what the deal should look like. Beijing has proposed banning joint military drills with countries outside Southeast Asia and restricting oil and gas exploration to intra-regional partnerships — poison pills for the Philippines and Vietnam.  Other agenda items include an informal consultation on a Five-Point Consensus on what to do with Myanmar, and energy security and the Iran War economic impact on the region.  On the sidelines of the meeting, a Quad (US/Japan/Australia/India) foreign ministers meeting with take place from the 20th to the 21st and a subsequent ministerial meeting to take place in Australia.  Markets will be watching closely for any bilateral meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as well as how Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is received at the meeting.

·       The Japanese Diet goes into an extended session in an effort to pass the secondary capital bill which would authorize the building of a backup city capable of assuming core government functions in the event of a major disaster.   The bill is also designed to decentralize economic activity in and around Tokyo.  Opposition parties have attacked the bill as biased toward the cities of Osaka and Ishin.

·       Today is Liberation Day in Guam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q2

·       Tawain Export Orders (June)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the European Parliament from the Foreign Affairs Committee will travel to Beijing and Shanghai to discuss critical issues including Russia’s war against Ukraine, human rights, security challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and China's influence on supply chains. MEPs will raise other matters of common interest including multilateralism, climate diplomacy, and the international governance of AI. They will meet with, among others, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the leadership and foreign affairs committee of the National People's Congress.

·       Today is National Day in Belgium, marking the date in 1831 when Leopold of Saxe-Coburg-Saalfeld took the oath as the first King of the Belgians.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

·       UK Unemployment Rate (May)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Claimant Count Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (June)

·       Greece Current Account (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (May)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Energy Forum begins in Houston, Texas and runs through July 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

 

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international security: Natural resource governance: The foundation of peace, security and prosperity. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A status hearing is scheduled for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in his US narcoterrorism and drug trafficking case.

·       US Section 301 tariffs on Brazil imports set at 25% go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/17)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/17)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/17)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (May)

·       EARNINGS: AT&T, GE Verona, Philip Morris, Pulte Group, Moody’s, Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, Texas Instruments, Kinder Morgan, Crown Castle, CSX,  Chubb, Raymond James, Rogers Communications (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Taiwan is scheduled to travel to Washington, D.C. to meet with US government officials and members of Congress and leading think tanks.  They will be in the US through July 26th.  The delegation is led by Tsai Chi-chang who previously served as Commissioner of the Chinese Professional Baseball League.  He will throw out the first pitch at the New York Mets game against the Los Angeles Dodgers and also meet with Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred in New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (June)

·       Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (June)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/21)

·       Indonesia     Interest Rate Decision/  Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)/ Loan Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Tawain Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates.

·       The European Commission’s provisional deadline for a decision on Paramount Skydance’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery.

·       UK Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI Output (June)/ PPI Input (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)

·       Poland Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ M3 Money Supply  (June)/Retail Sales (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Russia Industrial Production (June)/ PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: Alstom (FRA), AkzoNobel, Dassault Aviation, Moncler, Mulberry, Reach, ServiceNow, Banco Santander, Schindler

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (June)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security [SCR 2788 – peaceful settlement of disputes]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

·       Candidates to be the next UN Secretary-General participate in a town hall at the UN General Assembly in New York.  The candidates include former President of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet Jeria,  Former President of the UN General Assembly María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés (Ecuador), Rafael Mariano Grossi (Argentina):, the current Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis (Costa Rica), Former Vice President of Costa Rica and Secretary-General of the UN Trade and Development, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (Guyana), the current Permanent Representative of Guyana to the UN, and Macky Sall (Senegal), Former President of Senegal. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Office of the US Trade Representative holds a hearing to review which countries will be eligible for the 2027 renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade pact.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (June)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (May)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (July)

·       Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/18)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/11)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/18)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/17)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/22)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: American Airlines, Huntington Bank, Freeport McMaRon, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, CEMEX, Tractor Supply, Intel, Newmont, Sallie Mae

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers is set to take place in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan through July 24th.  The meeting will finalize the agenda and review documents for the upcoming SCO Council of Heads of State Summit taking place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, from August 31st to September 1st.  

·       The Wiki Finance Expo, billed as one of the biggest fintech events in Asia, kicks off in Hong Kong. The two-day conference is expected to attract over 12,000 attendees to hear hundreds of speakers and exhibitors talk about cryptocurrencies and other financial innovations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Australia Employment Change (June)/ Full Time Employment Chg (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Part Time Employment Chg (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (June)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Singapore  Inflation Rate (June)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (June)

·       Tawain Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

·       China FDI (YTD) (June)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU’s extension of the cap on Russian oil prices expires unless renewed.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through July 24th in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (June)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

·       France Business Confidence (July)/ Business Climate Indicator (July)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (July)/ Overnight Lending Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (June)

·       UK Conventional Gilt/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q3/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (July)

·       EARNINGS: Nokia, BNP Paribas, Dassault Systemes, Carrefour, TotalEnergies (FRA), Unicredit (ITALY), Thales, T-Mobile, Roche, Nestlé, Kuehne+Nagel, Morgan Sindell, Heathrow, , Getlink, Centrica, Carrefour

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt will observe Revolution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (May)/Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, July 24, 2026

Global

·       The International Criminal Court members vote on whether to dismiss prosecutor Karim Khan for alleged sexual misconduct, which he denies.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s latest trade tariffs – set at 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (which he implemented after the Supreme Court in February struck down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – are set to expire.  Only the US Congress can extend it. However, the tariffs can effectively be renewed by the President if he puts in new tariffs at a15% rate, which he has previously stated he intends to do.  The US Trade Representative’s Office has been building the rationale for the new, higher rate under a forced-labor rationale, holding hearings earlier this month.  The USTR announced they are focused on 54 countries which include: Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Australia, the Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Egypt, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Peru, the Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Türkiye, UAE, UK, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Six others — Canada, Ecuador, the EU, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan — have import prohibitions in their laws but were found by USTR  to have failed to enforce them

·       The Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercise begins off the coast of Hawaii. The three-month long military training event is the world’s largest maritime warfare exercise involves more than 30 surface ships, five submarines, 140 aircraft and more than 25,000 personnel from 31 different countries.

·       President Donald Trump attends the rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (June)

·       USA Building Permits (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ New Home Sales (June)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (July)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/24)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/24)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (June)/ PPI (June)/ Raw Materials Prices (June)/Wholesale Sales (June)

·       Chile PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: Verizon, Charter Communications, American Express, Verizon, the Hartford Financial, , SLB, NextEra Energy, Booz Allen, HCA Healthcare, CN Railway (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (June)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/18)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/New Car Sales (June)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Index (May)

·       India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/10)/ Deposit Growth (July/10)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)/M3 Money Supply (June/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Scottish city of Edinburgh institutes a visitor’s levy, taxing anyone visiting the city.  City Councilors hope to raise more than £150 million annually from it.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in an on-stage conversation at the MacGill Summer School 2026 in Donegal, Ireland

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (July)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence AUG/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain PPI (June)

·       France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina's President Javier Milei will travel to Brasilia, Brazil to attend the launch of right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign.  Milei then will to Lima, Peru to attend the July 28th inauguration of President-elect Keiko Fujimori.  From there he will go to Ecuador to see President Daniel Noboa going to Colombia to attend the August 7th  inauguration in Colombia of President-elect Abelardo De La Espriella. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Maldives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Russia celebrates Navy Day.  Normally, there is a big parade in St. Petersburg but for the second year in a row, it has been cancelled because Ukrainian drone forces are capable of striking the city and the parade without Russian military forces being able to defend adequately against them.

The 113th Tour de France cycling race concludes today with the 21st and final stage ending up in Paris.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius will host the U.S.-Africa Business Summit through July 29.

·       Today is Independence Day in Liberia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

·       July 28: Keiko Fujimori is inaugurated President of Peru.

·       July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.

·       July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.

·       August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

·       September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

·       September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

·       September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

·       October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

·       October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

·       October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election are held.  All members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

·       November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

·       November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

·       December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Senate Banking Holds Confirmation Hearing for a New CFPB Director, Prediction Markets Get A Hard Look in the House, and CFPB Close to New Consumer Financial Data Rule

July 20 - 24, 2026

Capitol Hill may be enveloped in a thick smoky haze from wildfires up north, but key congressional committees are still gearing up for a busy week next week. The Senate Banking Committee is holding a confirmation hearing this coming Thursday for President Trump’s third nominee to serve as Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Brian Johnson.

The previous two nominees were Jonathan McKiernan (who was instead nominated to serve as Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance, a role he held until last week)and Stuart Levenbach (whose nomination was yanked to make him Chair of the Interagency Council on Statistical Policy).

Johnson has a strong background in financial regulation. He is a former senior bank lawyer who later served at the CFPB in 2017. He then went to work at Patomak Global Partners, a strategy/risk management/regulatory affairs consultancy founded by current SEC Chair Paul Atkins. Johnson went from there to Capital One, where he was Vice President and Chief U.S. Card Compliance Officer.

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We think he’s likely to get grilled by Committee Democrats for his closeness to the industry and for having served at a major credit card company – but it’s highly likely he ultimately gets confirmed.

Others joining Johnson at the hearing include John Crews, a member of the board of the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). He’ll be the first new NCUA board member since early last year, when President Trump fired the Democratic members of the board. Currently, Crews is serving as the Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions. And previously, he was the Banking Committee’s Policy Director – so the hearing will be something of a homecoming.

Also, this coming week, the House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing titled “Examining Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Prediction Markets.” While focused on sports betting, the timing could not be better, as it was discovered this past week that the White House teleprompter operator was making large bets in the prediction market Kalshi on what President Trump was going to say in his speeches(he’s been suspended from his job).

Looking at what happened last week, we would note that Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh made some interesting comments in his House and Senate hearings about regulation. When asked by Senator Katie Britt (R-Ala) about the Fed’s effort on bank regulation tailoring, Warsh said:

“…broadly, I’ll step back and say modernizing our banking system, streamlining regulations so that the rules that apply to the systemically important financial institutions are not one size fits all for every other. The secret to the American economy is we have a few 1000 banks and other providers of credit who know their smaller markets bigger. I’d rather have that system than what most of our G20 peers have, where they have a half a dozen institutions implicitly backed by their government. I think reform is coming to supervision and regulation.

I have my own ideas that might be as dramatic as I’ve already shared on monetary policy here, and I think the sooner we can get to the bottom of it, the better. If I could say one more thing, the reforms we’ve been putting in place over the last 15 years, coming out of Dodd-Frank, as we learned in the Silicon Valley Bank example, in the First Republic example, they didn’t work perfectly. My predecessors had very little choice but then to do another overall bailout. We don’t want that to happen again, so we want to tailor the rules and the capital, so they serve the best interests of the US economy, which I describe as a system that is safe, sound, and competitive.”

Also last week, Acting CFPB Director Russ Vought revealed the CFPB is close to unveiling a rewrite of regulations governing access to consumers’ financial data– rewriting Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act. The Biden Administration rule – which was blocked by a federal judge - banned banks from charging for access to their customers’ financial data.

That rule hit Fintech firms, digital asset companies, and retailers who heavily rely on that data for their payment platforms (which made banks happy). But fintech and crypto firms rallied, lobbying Vought hard to rewrite the rule rather than letting the court strike it down. Vought’s comments served as something of a starter gun for a new and very tough battle between banks and the fintech/crypto worlds, which is likely to go on for some time.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Thursday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will meet in Executive Session to vote on the nomination Dr. Christopher Phelan, to be Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President; John Crews, to be a Member of the National Credit Union Administration; and Jeffrey Ledbetter, to be Inspector General, Department of Housing and Urban Development. The Committee then will conduct a hearing for Brian Johnson, to be Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; Ms. Abby Warren, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Commerce; and Irving Dennis, to be Chief Financial Officer, Department of Housing and Urban Development.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, July 21, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.”

· Tuesday, July 21, 10:00 a.m. - The House Agriculture Committee’s Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development Subcommittee holds a hearing on “Examining Prediction Markets: Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Markets.”

· Tuesday, July 21, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on “Oversight of the Federal Home Loan Bank System.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· The Federal Reserve Board is in a Quiet Period in advance of the July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Conferences –

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· July 21, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· Thursday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Brian Johnson to be Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, July 21, 1:45 a.m. – SIFMA holds a member briefing on the US Economic Outlook.

· Wednesday -Thursday, July 22 – 23 – The National Council of Farmer Cooperatives holds its 2026 Washington Conference. House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, (R-Mo.) delivers remarks on “House Tax & Trade Priorities.”

· Thursday, July 23, 10:30 a.m. – SIFMA co-hosts with Deloitte a Forum entitled “Scaling AI Maturity in Financial Services.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

· July 21 – 22 - The Brookings Institution Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy; Purdue University Mitch Daniels School of Business; Brandeis School of Business and Economics Rosenberg Institute of Global Science; and the University of Texas at Austin Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs hold its annual Municipal Finance Conference in Washington, D.C.

· July 21 – 23 – The Association of Government Accountants holds its Professional Development Training 2026 in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, July 21, 2:30 p.m. – The CATO institute is holding a policy forum entitled “A Forum for Lasting Affordability”

Recommended Reading

• It’s Time for Ottawa to Fulfill its Responsibility on Systemic Risk and Market Enforcement C.D. Howe Institute

  In a new report from the Toronto-based think tank, the authors call for Ottawa to revive key elements of the unfinished capital markets reform agenda. “Rather than reopening the long-running debate over a single national securities regulator, the report focuses on what tools are needed to manage systemic risk and strengthen criminal enforcement of capital market misconduct.”

• Why is bank enforcement declining? Aaron Klein and Cameron Connell, Brookings Institution

  Enforcement of rules by bank regulators has declined, as measured by formal enforcement actions. The decline in enforcement has occurred across administrations, in contrast to the narrative of a pendulum of enforcement that swings between Democratic and Republican administrations. Instead, the data show a stepwise decline in enforcement in which subsequent administrations either maintain lower enforcement rates or continue to decrease enforcement. Enforcement decline varies substantially by regulator: the sharpest decline is at the Federal Reserve (Fed), where formal enforcement actions have fallen by nearly 50 percent since Covid.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Crypto and US Household Finance, How Disconnected Youth Spend Their Time, Challenges to the US Industrial Base Policy, and the EU Growing Focus on Geopolitical/Geoeconomic Threats

July 17 - 19, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.

Crypto, AI, and Fiscal Policy

• Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  Using repeated large-scale surveys of US households, we study the cryptocurrency investment decisions and motives of households relative to other financial assets. Cryptocurrency holders tend to be young, male, and more libertarian relative to non-crypto holders. Crypto holders expect much higher rates of return for crypto and perceive it as relatively safer than non-holders do. For those holding cryptocurrencies, changes in Bitcoin prices translate into their purchases of durable goods. Finally, information about historical returns of cryptocurrencies in an information provision experiment embedded in the survey leads individuals to increase their desired crypto holdings and increases their actual cryptocurrency purchases subsequently. We compare these views and behaviors to those of households toward other financial assets and argue that cryptocurrency is unique in many of these respects.

• How Might Fiscal Policy Respond to the Rise of Artificial Intelligence? Karen Dynan, Douglas Elmendorf, and Louise Sheiner – National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: Artificial intelligence will probably generate major changes in the US economy, although the nature, timing, and magnitude of those changes are highly uncertain. We analyze a set of long-term scenarios involving different combinations of faster productivity growth, greater income inequality, job displacement, and a higher capital share of income. For each scenario, we assess the implications for federal debt and potential policy responses related to faster economic growth, the distribution of income, support for workers who are laid off, and taxation and ownership of capital. Given the uncertainty surrounding AI’s economic effects, policies that are robust to different scenarios would be especially valuable.

• Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2025  Federal Reserve Board Research and Analysis

  A recent Federal Reserve Board research piece shows that 49% of U.S. adults under 30 lived with a parent in 2025, up 12 percentage points since 2019, while 33% of adults lived in households with at least two generations of adults. Specifically, 19% of adults lived with their adult children (age 18 or older), and 15% lived with a parent. Two percent of adults simultaneously lived with a parent and an adult child. The share of young adults who live with their parents has increased in recent years. In 2025, 49% of adults under age 30 lived with a parent. This share was up by 6 percentage points since 2022, and up 12 percentage points since 2019, just before the pandemic. Conversely, adults aged 60 and older were more likely to live alone than were younger adults. Overall, 13% of people lived alone in 2025. Among those ages 60 and older, a higher 20% were living alone.

• How Are “Disconnected” Young Adults Spending Their Time?  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  In 2024, the share of U.S. 18- to 24-year-olds who were neither employed nor enrolled in school—that is, “disconnected”—was measured at 16%. That share remained essentially unchanged as of December 2025, despite a generally healthy labor market overall. Rural young adults, less-educated young adults, young Black adults, and young adults from lower-income families tended to have higher rates of disconnection than their peers. The American Time Use Survey offers a nuanced view of how disconnected young adults spend their time, suggesting constraints on the way their time can be allocated rather than disengagement or inactivity. Disconnected young adults spend more time on caregiving responsibilities and household activities than their not-disconnected peers, and less time on work- and education-related activities. Patterns in social and leisure time are similar across both groups.

• The AI Investment Race  Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul - Bank of International Settlements

  AI infrastructure investment is expanding faster than any previous technology boom, including the railway mania and dotcom bubble, within just three years. Debt-fueled buildout and circular financing arrangements are creating financial interconnectedness that makes the current cycle more fragile and prone to sharp correction. The analysis warns, “Their model suggests that investment is 50% above the efficient level.” This fragility is further aggravated by the leverage that accompanies the rapid ramp-up of investment. This boom-bust pattern recurs across history, from the US canal mania in the 1830s and the British railway mania in the 1840s to the roaring 20s and the dotcom boom in the late 90s. These episodes all ended in sharp corrections with wider economic fallout.

The EU’s Global Threat Analysis & The Challenges to US Industrial Base Policy

• Common Understanding – The Threats and Challenges We Face: Assessment of the EU’s Strategic Environment Council of the European Union

  A new EU report argues The EU faces an uncertain geostrategic context driven by sustained, simultaneous threats on multiple fronts – but singles out China and Russia of trying to “reshape the global order in line with their interests” and “fostering a return to a sphere-of-influence logic.”

• The Coming Clash Between China and Europe Thorsten Benner/Foreign Affairs

  In 2025, Chinese leader Xi Jinping tried to capitalize on U.S. belligerence toward Europe by promoting China as the responsible great-power alternative. In a message sent to mark the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the European Union, Xi invited Brussels to join forces with Beijing, to “uphold multilateralism, safeguard fairness and justice,” and “oppose unilateralism and bullying.” Key EU leaders, as well as the Brussels bureaucracy, are not buying it. They have concluded that the very survival of Europe’s core industries is threatened by China. Increasingly, European leaders are arguing that the EU needs to take action to protect its industries. So severe is the threat that measures that were unthinkable a few years ago are now gaining momentum. An all-out trade war with China is becoming a real possibility.

• Europe must really confront China now: delay is no longer an option Steven Everts/European Union Institute for Security Studies

  Europe urgently needs a serious debate on China. Not a technical discussion about tariffs, subsidies, or market access, but a strategic one. After all, China affects everything at once: industrial policy, defense, technology, critical raw materials, and trade. This is geopolitics, and therefore a top priority. The challenge is becoming more urgent. Pressure is growing in sector after sector. Electric cars, batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, pharmaceuticals, chemicals – European companies are feeling the rise of Chinese competition everywhere. Behind this lies an economic model in which state aid, cheap financing, export promotion, and strategic market access are closely intertwined. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly difficult for European companies to operate in China itself under fair conditions.

• Is the Industrial Base on a Wartime Footing? A Progress Report  Jerry McGinn and A.J. Dilts - Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Roughly 10,000 new firms have entered the market in the past two years and nontraditional companies received over $120 billion in contract obligations in FY 2025, adding competition and innovation to the sector. Munitions contract obligations have risen 330% since FY 2010. Spurred by this increased demand and depleted inventories, the Pentagon is signing multiyear agreements with munitions producers and suppliers on a historic scale. In addition to developing magazine depth, the DOD is prioritizing magazine breadth, placing an increased emphasis on equipping the Joint Force with a “high-low mix” of both exquisite and affordable missiles and interceptors. Stockpiles require resilient supplies of subcomponents, and new firms and forms of government-industry collaboration are reshaping the solid rocket motor (SRM) sub-sector. At the bedrock of defense supply chains, unprecedented commitments of public and private capital are focused on establishing a secure mine-to-magnet rare earth supply chain outside Chinese control.

• Scaling Patriot Production: The Industrial Base Crisis Explained  Foreign Policy Research Institute

  On April 10th this year, after coalition forces had fired at least 1,700 Patriots in just five weeks, the Pentagon announced $4.76 billion contract to accelerate production. While a seemingly forceful response, the move only highlighted the core problem. At the current build rate of 600 missiles per year, it would take three years to replace what was used in a little over a month. Replenishment runs on an industrial clock, and that clock is measured in years, not days. Patriot missile expenditure by the United States and its allies in the 2026 Iran War is the clearest case study in command of the reload. The problem is not simply how to fire more missiles, but how to sustain missile defense once the opening magazine is gone. That requires three things:

  • Buying time through multiyear demand that gives industry room to invest;

  • Buying redundancy across the sub-tier bottlenecks that pace production

  • Buying efficiency through defensive doctrines that preserve premium interceptors for premium threats.

  For decades, US grand strategy was what Barry Posen famously called “Command of the Commons,” the ability to dominate every war-fighting domain to shape the terms of a conflict. That advantage still matters, but the Iran war exposed the harder foundation beneath it. The United States can expend advanced precision-guided munitions in weeks, while the defense-industrial base takes years to replace them. Command of the commons now depends more heavily on “Command of the Reload.”

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

July 13 - 17, 2026

Fed Chair Warsh Gives His First Semiannual Report to Congress, Treasury Undersecretary McKernan Set to Exit, and the White House Prepares Australian-Style Retirement Accounts

Washington cannot wait to get to August, the quietest time of the year, as everyone heads out on vacation. But until then, it is going to be a busy couple of weeks ahead.

The big event of the week is Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s first semi-annual report to Congress.  While the bulk of the testimony and questions and answers will focus on the economy, there is a high likelihood that Warsh will be asked about several regulatory efforts underway at the Fed. 

Also this week, both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee will hold their respective annual review hearings on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).  The fact is, the CFPB has been reduced to a skeletal staff that does little, as the Trump Administration (and many Republican members of Congress) would like to see it abolished.  With that in mind, House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark) is preparing a draft CFPB reform bill that may simply fuse the agency into another prudential banking agency.  We might see a draft or a preliminary description of what Chair Hill wants at the hearing.

Down at the Treasury Department, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will be meeting on Tuesday. The preliminary agenda for the meeting includes a presentation on the Council’s recent tabletop exercise on geopolitical risk; the Council’s work on artificial intelligence; the Council’s quarterly financial stability monitor; the Council’s proposed interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company designations; and the Council’s 2026 annual report.* 

Staying with Treasury for a moment, there was surprising news this past week that Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Jonathan McKernan is departing.   McKernan had served on the board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and had served as a key architect of much of the Trump Administration’s bank regulatory reform efforts.  In February 2025, McKernan had been named Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Board, but the nomination was withdrawn.  He was later nominated to serve as Undersecretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance, a role he has held since October 2025.

Also, last week, the White House floated the idea of creating Australia-inspired retirement savings accounts and is apparently drafting legislation to make it happen.  Australia has a superannuation program that requires companies to contribute 12 percent of their workers’ pay into a retirement plan.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Wednesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Thursday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.” Director of the Office of Management and Budget/Acting Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Russell Vought, will testify.

·       Thursday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a confirmation hearing to consider the nominations of Francis Brooke to be Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, Erin Browne to be Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, Sriprakash Kothair to be Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, and George McMaster to be Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, July 14, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       Wednesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.” Director of the Office of Management and Budget/Acting Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Russell Vought will testify.

·       Friday, July 17, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence will hold a field hearing in new York (Federal Hall) entitled “Building the Future of Finance: How the CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

·       Monday, July 13, 5:25 a.m. ET - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak virtually at the Bank Policy Institute’s Roundtable.

·       Monday, July 13, 12:30 p.m. ET - Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give an economic update at the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) in New York.

·       Tuesday, July 14, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       Tuesday, July 14,12:40 p.m. –  Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.   He will later participate in a fireside chat on the issue of artificial intelligence and financial inclusion.

·       Tuesday, July 14, 1:00 p.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before hybrid Kenosha Area Business Alliance Business Lunch event in Chicago, Illinois.

·       Tuesday, July 14, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech entitled “Consumers, AI, and Financial Inclusion: Balancing Opportunities and Challenges” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, July 14, 2:55 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a pre-recorded video speech entitled “Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Wednesday, July 15, 8:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives a keynote speech and participates in a conversation organized by the Partnership for New York City.

·       Wednesday, 11:00 a.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Board President Alberto Musalem gives the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture in St. Louis, Missouri.

·       Wednesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Wednesday, July 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives an economic outlook at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, July 16, 12:00 p.m. – Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid gives his perspective on the economy at the Grand Island Economic Forum in Grand Island, Nebraska.

·       Thursday, July 16, 12:30 p.m. – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in moderated question-and-answer session sharing insights about her leadership role at the Federal Reserve, her experiences as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee and her perspectives on the evolving economic landscape in a Fed Listening Tour event.

·       Thursday, July 16, 7:00 p.m. ET – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Navigating Economic Shocks” at Stanford University.

Conferences –

·       Tuesday, July 14, 12:30 – 5:30 p.m. – The Federal Reserve Board hosts the 3rd Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, "Next-Gen Financial Inclusion," in Washington, D.C. 

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Tuesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet in Executive Session.  The preliminary agenda for the meeting includes a presentation on the Council’s recent tabletop exercise on geopolitical risk; the Council’s work on artificial intelligence; the Council’s quarterly financial stability monitor; the Council’s proposed interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company designations; and the Council’s 2026 annual report.* 

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Monday, July 13, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC’s Office of the Advocate for Small Business Capital Formation is partnering with the Division of Corporation Finance to host a discussion entitled ”Rethinking the Rulebook: Modernizing the IPO Process and Access to Public Capital.”

·       Thursday, July 16, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

·       Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

https://www.cato.org/blog/postal-banking-has-died-zero-customers-years

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, July 14, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Two years later: How have our nation’s institutions responded to Loper Bright and the end of Chevron deference?”

·        Wednesday, July 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives an economic outlook at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

Recommended Reading\

• What Do Over 3,000 Bank Runs Teach Us About Banking Crises?   Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  Runs on financial institutions are one of the salient markers of financial crises. But the role of runs in crises is a topic of longstanding debate. Runs can be seen as the key turning point, whereby even small shocks can generate severe crises with widespread bank failures. Another view is that runs are mainly a symptom of deeper rot in the financial system, exacerbating crises rather than being their primary cause. Understanding this debate has first-order implications for how to think about financial crises and the appropriate policy responses. In this post, we use a new database of more than 3,000 bank runs (introduced in our companion post) to show that poor fundamentals are central to explaining both when runs occur and when they have severe economic effects. We argue that this evidence tempers the view that small shocks can have outsized real effects through self-fulfilling run dynamics.

• Postal Banking Has Died with Zero Customers in Years   Cato Institute

  The United States Postal Service has finally laid the postal banking pilot program to rest. However, it’s unlikely anyone noticed. The program didn’t have a single customer from April 2022 to September 2025.

• Why are the “Underbanked” paying more for financial services?      Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

  Why are people with less income paying more for financial services?  It’s a question we at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ask all the time about the “underbanked.” The underbanked (as opposed to the “unbanked”) have an account of some kind with a financial institution – usually checking or savings. But they still use often expensive nonbank “alternative financial services,” or AFS. One example is payday loans, which are high-interest loans usually due the day of the borrower’s next paycheck. Another popular AFS is retail bill pay, when people go to a retail outlet like a supermarket or pharmacy to pay utility, credit card, and other bills for a fee. The underbanked tend to have lower income levels and an incentive to pay less. So, what’s steering them toward more expensive financial products? We know some of the answers. In a survey we conducted with the nonprofit Commonwealth, AFS users cited speed, trust, and confirmation that their funds were sent or received as their top reasons for using those services.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week

US-Iran Clashes Resume, Ukraine’s Allies Meet in Paris, Burnham to Be Formally Named the UK’s Next Prime Minister, and Warsh Delivers His First Economic Report to Congress

July 12 - 19, 2026

Iran will continue to dominate the geopolitical and economic headlines this week following the collapse of the ceasefire. The trigger for the collapse was Iran’s attack on multiple commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, ostensibly because the ships failed to pay tolls to Iran. Since then, the US has carried out multiple waves of attacks on Iranian military targets. However, President Trump said he would agree to further talks with Iran despite the ceasefire's collapse. But as of this writing, there is no clear path to renewing further talks.

Meanwhile, President Trump is scheduled to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaida Tuesday at the White House. This is al-Zaida’s first foreign trip since being elected Prime Minister in May, and may prove helpful in furthering efforts with Iran. The focus of the meeting will be to secure new investment deals – including new oil deals – and finalize efforts to get Iraq to move to disarm Iran-aligned armed groups operating in Iraq.

In Europe, two important events are taking place. First, Andy Burnham will likely become the UK’s latest prime minister, replacing Keir Starmer. Burnham has secured close to 80% of the Labor Party’s support, and barring a last-minute entry in the race to become Prime Minister (the deadline for entry is this week), Burnham will be set to take over during Parliament’s summer recess.

The second important event is a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing on Ukraine” in Paris. Ukrainian President Zelensky, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and more than 25-plus heads of state will gather. While the meeting is unlikely to produce any big new financial or military commitments, it will be seen further building on momentum reaffirmed at the recent G7 summit in Évian, France and the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey where allies committed €70 billion in military aid to Kyiv for 2026 (and President Trump granted Ukraine permission to build Patriot missiles – a significant new show of support from the US). Macron has said he’ll use the gathering to unveil new defense initiatives and joint military exercises, with the agenda also covering Russia’s shadow fleet, new military capabilities for Ukraine, and deeper operational cooperation among Kyiv’s backers.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, inflation will be the focus of policymakers and markets this week.

The big event for markets will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress this week, presenting the Fed’s semiannual monetary report. Warsh is sure to be peppered with questions about inflation by nervous members of Congress facing tough elections in November.

In addition, there are no officially confirmed reports that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be in Washington Monday and Tuesday to meet with Warsh (Monday) and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (Tuesday). It has been suggested that the meetings will focus on closer policy coordination on inflation as the Iran War drags on.

In the US this week, we will see the June CPI report on Tuesday, just before Warsh’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Then the June PPI will be released on Wednesday, just before Warsh’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. The final inflation report of the week will be the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey on Friday. Other major reports out this week will be the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and industrial production on Friday.

Also, this coming week kicks off earnings season, with five of the largest US investment banks – JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Citigroup – all reporting.

In Canada, the Reserve Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday to set interest rates, with markets expecting a hold. Also on Wednesday, we will see MLS home sales figures and trade figures. And on Thursday, new housing starts are reported.

In Asia, the Bank of Korea decides on rates on Thursday. China releases its Q2 GDP figures and retail sales on Wednesday. And in Japan, we will see industrial production numbers on Tuesday.

And in Europe, the European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of its next rates meeting in two weeks. The Eurozone industrial production numbers are out on Wednesday, and Friday brings the Eurozone’s June CPI.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN will hold an informal meeting in Bangkok, Thailand with Myanmar’s foreign minister to explore Myanmar’s potential rehabilitation in the bloc. This is the first direct contact between ASEAN and Myanmar in five years.

· Today is Independence Day for the island nation of Kiribati.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 13, 2026

Global

· OPEC releases its Monthly Oil Market Report.

· The UN’s High-Level Political Forum 2026 will continue until 15 July, under the auspices of the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). The three-day ministerial segment of the forum will take place through July 15th.

· The International Finance and Banking Society holds its annual conference in London. Through July 15th.

· The International Seabed Authority convenes in Kingston, Jamaica, to negotiate rules for deep-sea mining. The meetings run through July 24th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi travels to Washington, D.C. for meetings with President Trump. This first international trip since taking office in May. Among the issues the two leaders will discuss is a fund where Iraq deposits 500,000 barrels of oil/day in exchange for boosted electricity supply, negotiations with Chevron on the West Qurna-2 and Nasiriyah oil fields, and resumed operations for HKN, Western Zagros, and Hunt with security guarantees. But this is a delicate meeting for al-Zaidi as he seeks to deepen the US economic/security partnership while preserving Iraq’s relationship with Iran.

· The US Congress returns from a two-week recess.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak virtually at the Bank Policy Institute’s Roundtable.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give an economic update at the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) in New York.

· USA Monthly Budget Statement (June)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (June)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (May)

· Brazil Business Confidence (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research, the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund host a conference on global interconnections and financial stability in Hong Kong.

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (June) /Services NZ PSI (June)

· India Inflation Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing on Ukraine held in Paris, France. French President Emmanual Macron will host Ukrainian President Zelensky, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President António Costa along with 25-plus heads of state. This meeting builds on momentum reaffirmed at the recent G7 summit in Évian and the NATO summit in Ankara, where allies committed €70 billion in military aid to Kyiv for 2026. Macron has said he’ll use the gathering to unveil new defense initiatives and joint military exercises, with the agenda also covering Russia’s shadow fleet, new military capabilities for Ukraine, and deeper operational cooperation among Kyiv’s backers.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Foreign Affairs Ministers will discuss the Ukraine War with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha giving an update. They will also discuss the situation in the Middle East, get an update following the launch of the Black Sea strategic approach, the status of EU-UN relations, and on the margins participate in the EU-Gulf Cooperation Council High-Level Forum

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the Irish EU presidency work program, livestock strategy and protein plan, women in agriculture, and trade related agricultural issues.

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide in Oslo, Norway.

· Romanian President Nicusor Dan will hold consultations with pro-Western parliamentary parties on forming a new ruling coalition.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with Federal Reserve Board ChairKevin Warsh in Washington, D.C.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives keynote remarks and participates in a panel discussion at the Annual Economic Reception of the Deputy Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia in Münster, Germany.

· BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the International Finance and Banking Society conference in London.

· Romania Inflation Rate (June)

· Turkey Current Account (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (June)

· Germany Current Account (May)

· Russia Balance of Trade (May)

· Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

· UK BoE Pill Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan .Inflation Rate (June)

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on Maintenance of international peace and security. Soon after, the Security Council is schedules to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· (TBD) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Christine Lagarde in Washington, D.C. Lagarde reportedly wants to discuss the economic impact of the War with Iran and inflation coordination.

· The 2026 Aspen Security Forum begins in Aspen, Colorado and runs through July 17th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

· The Federal Reserve Board hosts its annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C. He will later participate in a fireside chat on the issue of artificial intelligence and financial inclusion.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech entitled “Consumers, AI, and Financial Inclusion: Balancing Opportunities and Challenges” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a pre-recorded video speech entitled “Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before hybrid Kenosha Area Business Alliance Business Lunch event in Chicago, Illinois.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (June)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ CPI s.a (June)/ Redbook (July/11)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (July/10)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (June)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JP Morgan, Ericson

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Kazakhstan, Roscosmos Soyuz MS-29 spacecraft launch, carrying Nasa astronaut Anil Menon and Roscosmos cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anna Kikina to the International Space Station.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2/ Visitor Arrivals (May)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (July)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (July)/ AB Business Confidence (June)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (June)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (May)/Industrial Production (May)

· India WPI Food Index (June)/ WPI Fuel (June)/ WPI Inflation (June)/ WPI Manufacturing (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers responsible for European Affairs will discuss the Ireland’s EU presidential priorities, the state of play and future orientation of simplification, and an evaluation of the annual rule of law dialogue.

· The 3rd Accession Conference with Ukraine will take place in Brussels.

· The 28th Accession Conference with Montenegro will take place in Brussels.

· The 3rd Accession Conference with the Republic of Moldova will take place in Brussels.

· The 9th Accession Conference with Albania will take pace in Brussels.

· France celebrates Bastille Day with its traditional military parade on the Champs-Élysées in Paris, attended by President Emmanuel Macron.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey deliver speeches at the City of London Corporation’s Financial and Professional Services Dinner (the Mansion House speech) in London.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Financial Policy Committee members appear in a Treasury Committee hearing on the Financial Stability Report.

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (June)

· Ireland Construction PMI (June)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (June)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

· Hungary Construction Output (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Poland Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

· EARNINGS: The Watches of Switzerland, BP

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (May)/ Mining Production (May)

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Attorney-General nominee Todd Blanche appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee at the start of a two-day confirmation hearing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent chairs a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council to discuss geopolitical risks, AI and financial stability.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives an economic outlook at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives a keynote speech and participates in a conversation organized by the Partnership for New York City.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Board President Alberto Musalem gives the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture in St. Louis, Missouri.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/10)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/10)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/10)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/10)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/10)/ PPI (June)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)/ PPI (June)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (June)/ / EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/10)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference/Canada Capacity Utilization (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)/ Wholesale Sales (May)/

· Columbia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: Morgan Stanley, United Airlines, ASML, Progressive, BlackRock, Conagra, Johnson & Johnson, PNC, M&T Bank, Cintas, J.B. Hunt

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import/Export Prices (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (June)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)/ Machinery Orders (May)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Tertiary Industry Index (May)

· China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ New Yuan Loans (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (June)/ Total Social Financing (June)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: Rio Tinto

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be in an informal meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers in Brussels through July 17th.

· The UK-India Free Trade Agreement goes into effect.

· he EU and UK provisionally apply their post-Brexit border deal to the British territory.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta speaks at the Italian Banking Association’s annual meeting in Rome.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks on a panel at the International Finance and Banking Society Conference.

· Bank of England executive director for prudential policy, David Bailey, speaks at the International Finance and Banking Society conference, hosted at Bayes Business School in London.

· Romania Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (May)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (May)/Residential Property Prices (May)

· Serbia Building Permits (May)

· EARNINGS: Handelsbanken

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel and Lebanon may hold the next round of direct negotiations in Rome, Italy, through July 16th.

· Turkey observes Democracy and National Unity Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon Industrial Production (May)

· Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

· Israel Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 16, 2026

Global

· The International Energy Agency releases its Global Critical Minerals Outlook Report.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host a meeting with senior ministers from around the world on the “resurgence of transnational far-left terrorism.” In Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Navigating Economic Shocks” at Stanford University.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in moderated question-and-answer session sharing insights about her leadership role at the Federal Reserve, her experiences as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee and her perspectives on the evolving economic landscape in a Fed Listening Tour event in Houston, Texas.

· Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid participates in the Grand Island Economic Forum in Grand Island, Nebraska.

· Brazil Retail Sales (May)

· Canada Housing Starts (June)

· USA Retail Sales (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/11)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Retail Sales Control Group (June)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/11)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (July)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (July)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July)/ Philly Fed Employment (July)/ Philly Fed New Orders (July)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Business Inventories (May)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/10)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/16)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/16)/Fed Balance Sheet (July/15)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (May)

· Columbia Consumer Confidence (June)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (June)

· EARNINGS: Alcoa, Netflix, Cohen & Steers, First National Bank, Prologis, Citizen, State Street, Abbot, GE Aerospace, US Bancorp, United Health Group

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nikkei Asia Forum APAC 2026 will take place in Bangkok, bringing together political and business leaders from across the region to discuss topics including energy, mobility and AI. Speakers include Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Sony Group Executive Chairman Kenichiro Yoshida and Thammasak Sethaudom, president and CEO of Thailand’s Siam Cement Group..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July)/11

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

· China FDI (YTD) (June)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Services PMI (June)

· EARNINGS: TSMC, Wipro

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, BHP workers at Port Hedland are set to stage an eight-hour strike after negotiations over pay and working conditions failed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of the July 22-23 rate-setting meeting.

· Kazakhstan GDP (June)

· UK GDP (May)/ GDP 3-Month Avg (May)/ Goods Trade Balance (May)/ Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Construction Output (May)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (June)

· Hungary Gross Wage (May)

· Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Turkey Budget Balance (June)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Belarus Industrial Production (June)

· EARNINGS: ABB, BHP, Crest Nicholson, Frasers, Publicis Groupe, SSE,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Oman Inflation Rate (June)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Friday, July 17, 2026

Global

· The World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance is held in Shanghai, China. The meeting will showcase China’s advances in AI as its low-cost models gain traction globally. The conference comes on the heels of a United Nations meeting in Geneva on AI governance, which highlighted the contrasting attitudes of the U.S. and China.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (July)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)

· Canada FIB Business Barometer (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (May)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (May)

· USA Building Permits (June)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Import Prices (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (July)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/17)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/17)

· EARNINGS: Regions, Truist, Autoliv, Travelers, Sandvik, Fifth Third Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in South Korea, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (June)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (June)/ Non-Oil Exports (June)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q3/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/10)/ M3 Money Supply (June/30)

· EARNINGS: JSW Steel

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s Labour Party will declare Andy Burnham its new leader if he remains the sole candidate for prime minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a lecture on the digital euro during the annual Federcasse assembly in Rome, Italy.

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/Current Account (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/10)/ Auto Production (June)/ Auto Sales (June)

· Euro Area Current Account (May)/ Current Account s.a (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Serbia Current Account (May)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)

· Belarus GDP (June)

· EARNINGS: Volvo, Burberry, Telia, Skanska

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (June)

Saturday, July 18, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Uruguay.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· EARNINGS: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank (India)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Global

· The World Cup Championship is played in New Jersey.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Economic Community of West African States will hold the bloc’s 69th Ordinary Summit of heads of state and government in Sierra Leone.

· São Tomé and Principe hold presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· July 23: The 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum takes place in Manila, the Philippines.

· July 28: Keiko Fujimori is inaugurated President of Peru.

· August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election are held. All members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Russia’s Growing Economic Problems, How the Iran War is Changing the Middle East, What Happens When Trust in Economic Statistics Declines, And the Memo That Killed the Penny

July 10 - 12, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them both interesting and useful. Have a great weekend.

The Ukraine War and Russia’s Growing Troubles

• Endgame: The State of the Russian Economy  The Kiel Institute for the World Economy

  The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. The economy has not collapsed, but the structural foundations have eroded fast. Economic growth has come to a standstill, and fiscal buffers are largely exhausted. Higher oil prices as a result of the war in the gulf will likely only bring temporary fiscal effects, as Ukrainian “drone sanctions” have been effective in reducing export volumes. Russia’s current macro stance is not sustainable. High interest rates are stifling the economy, while loose fiscal policy and quasi-fiscal operations are propping up the defense sector. The Q1 2026 budget deficit exceeded the full-year target in just three months. The choice now is between fiscal consolidation or monetary accommodation resulting in even higher inflation. Going forward, export revenues from the sale of raw materials remain the decisive variable for the economic outlook: With fiscal buffers spent, Russia’s war capacity is more than ever directly coupled to hydrocarbon export income.

• Putin’s economy is running on fumes after Ukrainian attacks  Politico EU

  For four years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has largely managed to shield the population from the economic consequences of his war in Ukraine. No more. The Ukrainian missile and drone strikes on key energy infrastructure in recent weeks has turned the war from a relatively minor irritant that most Russians could ignore into an immediate and increasingly acute fuel crisis. Two-thirds of Russia’s 83 regions are now reporting problems with fuel supply, an immediate inconvenience to millions and an equally immediate threat to the viability of many businesses. As far as hard numbers go, the scale of the damage is being disguised, with Russia adding domestic fuel prices to the list of economic data that it no longer publishes. Plenty of Russians, however, are finding out for themselves just how bad things are. Social media are exploding with footage of drivers attacking each other over gasoline at filling stations, or even rampaging in trucks through queues of cars waiting to fill up. It’s gotten to the stage where the nation that the late Sen. John McCain derided as “a gas station masquerading as a country” isn’t even a gas station any more: Reuters reported on Wednesday that India — the biggest foreign buyer of Russian crude oil — will now export some of what it refines back to its country of origin.

• Russia’s Losing Hand in the South Caucasus  Center for European Analysis

  Russia sought to influence Armenia’s recent parliamentary elections and derail the re-election of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s re-election – and failed. Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to reassert influence over the South Caucasus nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan but has increasingly been stymied. The Armenian election and the defeat of pro-Putin candidates pushed the Kremlin to work harder to rekindle its relationship with Azerbaijan as it seeks to reassert itself in the region. But Russia has also been increasingly frustrated by both Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s ties with President Donald Trump’s administration, particularly over critically important transport infrastructure. And now, Russia is facing a significant loss of influence in its “near abroad.”

• The War In Ukraine Is Already Over — And Putin Lost  James Jay Carafano/1945.com

  National security expert James Jay Carafano argues that although the fighting grinds on, the war in Ukraine is strategically over — and Putin has lost. Russia has passed its culminating point, he writes, leaving three realities Moscow cannot change: an independent, well-armed Ukraine, an intact NATO, and a homeland now permanently vulnerable to deep strikes.

The Iran War and How It is Changing the Middle East

• Syria deal gives Trump potential route to bypass Hormuz  The Telegraph

  Last Thursday, on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Turkey, President Trump met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The meeting came as the US announced it would remove Syria from the list of sanctioned state sponsors of terrorism – on top of lifting sanctions last year. And in return, al-Sharaa gave President Trump – and Gulf States – a potential solution to loosening Tehran’s chokehold on shipping oil and gas via the Strait of Hormuz. Syria’s strategic location – with a large stretch of Mediterranean coastline and a land mass connected to oil-rich Middle Eastern nations – makes it easy to connect to global trade. Options include trucking or moving energy supplies through dedicated pipelines to coastal ports where goods can be loaded on to commercial vessels bound for Europe and further afield. Using this route would allow countries to bypass maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the leverage that Iran holds by attacking commercial vessels in transit. Pipeline projects are already under consideration, and could link major energy producers in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, directly to Syria’s ports in Baniyas and Latakia.

• Iran is Losing Iraq  Kamaran Palani/Foreign Affairs

  Whenever the Iran war comes to an end, the Islamic Republic is likely to emerge in a stronger position. But at least in one area, the war has left Iran notably weaker: Iraq. Ever since the toppling of the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran has been able to exercise a great deal of influence over its western neighbor. It has embedded itself within Iraq’s Shiite political establishment, mediating between rival factions, shaping successive governments, and using Iraq to gain hard cash through smuggling and currency exchange networks. Iran supported many of the Iraqi paramilitary groups that helped defeat the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, in 2017. Iraqis still grew to resent Iran’s overweening influence in their country, not least because of the involvement of Iranian-backed militias in a brutal crackdown on anticorruption protesters in 2019 and 2020.Now, the tumult of recent months has further tilted Iraqis against Iran’s desire to make their country a staging ground of resistance to the United States and Israel. Leaders of political parties and militia groups that once hewed close to Tehran are pulling away.

• Going Over the Brink: How Hizballah’s Risk Strategy Made Lebanon Impossible to Ignore  Kelly Grieco, George Saade, and Hunter Slingbaum, War on the Rocks

  When the United States and Iran announced their framework agreement on June 15, attention focused on the direct U.S.-Iran dimensions of the deal, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, and the fate of Iran’s nuclear program. But the agreement also included a commitment to the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Washington had spent months treating Lebanon as a separate issue in negotiations, even as the Israel-Hizballah conflict remained active under a nominal ceasefire in place since April 16. That Lebanon ended up inside the agreement was not an accident. Newly compiled data on 1,155 Hizballah attacks between April 15 and June 14 — 540 drone strikes and 615 rocket, missile, and artillery incidents – and this points to the reason Lebanon was included: Iran via Hezbollah ran a deliberate, calibrated pressure campaign designed to keep the southern front permanently on the edge of escalation to a wider war. By raising the costs of continued fighting and increasing the risk of a broader regional crisis, Hizballah gave Tehran leverage to insist that negotiations could not proceed while Israel’s offensive in Lebanon continued. That linkage, in turn, forced Washington to lean on Israel to de-escalate and ultimately accept Lebanon’s inclusion in the final agreement. But that agreement did not resolve Lebanon. Worse, it institutionalized the conflict as a source of Iranian leverage, giving Tehran another means of extracting concessions from Washington. The United States is now trapped managing a conflict it cannot leave without jeopardizing the broader deal it seeks to conclude.

Geoeconomics, Statistics, and Pennies

• ·US Monetary Spillovers, Foreign Exchange, and Gold Reserves at Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation  Joshua Aizenman, Jamel Saadaoui, Gazi Salah Uddin and Naoki Yago National Bureau of Economic Research

  This paper shows that US monetary policy surprises exert significant spillover effects on exchange rate through dollar liquidity and capital flow channels. Using high-frequency exchange rate data and detailed currency composition of reserves for 18 countries, we show that estimated reserve-buffer effects depend on their composition. Dollar-denominated reserves substantially mitigate depreciation pressures, while non-dollar reserves have smaller estimated effects. Gold reserves are also associated with smaller exchange-rate responses, though less strongly than liquid FX holdings due to differences in immediacy and usability. Our results highlight an empirical complementarity between reserve holdings and access to international liquidity facilities such as central bank swap and repo lines. These arrangements are associated with a smaller role for reserve depletion during periods of dollar funding stress. Aggregate reserve size alone does not capture all dimensions associated with external resilience; currency composition and access to dollar liquidity facilities are empirically relevant for exchange-rate responses to US monetary shocks. These findings are consistent with recent large-scale purchases and sales of gold reserves by emerging economies amid sanctions-related restrictions and geopolitical concerns about access to dollar liquidity.
  

• When Trust in Official Statistics Declines  Michael Strain, VoxEU/CEPR

  Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US, where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. This column shows that the events produced a sharp increase in economic policy uncertainty, with existing estimates linking uncertainty to macroeconomic outcomes, implying that the resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. While some economic activity postponed during periods of uncertainty may eventually occur later, there are reasons to believe that at least part of the effect could be lasting.

• ·The Memo That Killed the Penny  Bloomberg

  Previously undisclosed documents obtained by Bloomberg’s FOIA Files reveal how the Trump administration found a way to halt penny production and why officials considered the decision “critical. It was actually Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (now defunct) that called attention to the skyrocketing costs of producing the penny — a day after Trump was sworn into office. It wasn’t the first time the practicality of the lowly coin was debated. A half-century ago, Treasury Secretary William Simon wrote in a memorandum to President Gerald Ford: “Concerning the one-cent coin, we are rapidly approaching the decision point for continuance or elimination.” In 2013, President Barack Obama seemed to be open to the idea of discontinuing the minting of pennies. Simon and Obama both cited the increased costs to taxpayers to produce the coins and the fact that people were using them with less frequency. They also noted that discontinuing the production of the penny would require an act of Congress, whose coinage power is spelled out in the Constitution.

• AI, Immigration, and Collapsing Labor Force Participation  Applied Complexity

  Overall Labor Force Participation (LFP) is at a 50-year low. As fewer adults work or seek work, a larger fraction of voters experience the economy mostly as consumers, retirees, or rentiers, not as workers. That changes political incentives around wages, immigration, AI, taxation, and redistribution. The economy becomes increasingly dependent on a shrinking core. A shrinking group of workers generates the income, taxes, and innovation that support a growing number of non-workers. The economy becomes more fragile because labor shocks are concentrated among fewer participants. Capital must increasingly substitute for labor. Labor scarcity raises the return on automation, AI, robotics, and software. The AI bet becomes as much about compensating for workers’ absence as simple replacement. Growth increasingly depends on productivity, not participation. Any [productivity] miss will be much more consequential than in the past, given that labor no longer picks up the slack.