Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 10/11/26 Francis Kelly 10/11/26

The Global Week Ahead

The IMF-World Bank Meetings Kick Off in Bangkok, Saudi-Houthi Fighting Intensifies, EU Leaders Convene Over Ukraine and Energy Security, and Markets Focus on Inflation Data

October 11 - 19, 2026

It will be an action-packed week, both geopolitically and for markets. The big event of the week is the kickoff of the IMF-World Bank Meetings in Bangkok, where finance ministers and central bank heads are converging. Over the next week, policymakers will tackle escalating economic and geopolitical crises in a dense schedule of meetings and sideline conferences.

Among the sideline sessions will be a G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was scheduled to chair the meeting but canceled his trip late Thursday, citing unspecified “domestic engagements.” Bessent is sending Deputy Secretary Francis Brooke and Undersecretary for International Affairs Erin Browne in his stead. The focus of the G20 meeting is to push for “more transparency and more effective approaches to sovereign debt” in the wake of severe global bond market turbulence that pushed U.S. Treasury yields to their highest level in 25 years due to a severe energy crisis born out of the Iran conflict.

Countless central bank speeches will take place this week at other sideline events – especially at the Institute of International Finance Conference and the Atlantic Council conferences. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be speaking at both of them. Investor focus turns heavily to Thursday’s fireside chat featuring Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. The discussion will be one of Warsh’s first public appearances since taking the helm at the Fed.

Meanwhile, FBI Director Kash Patel will travel to Moscow and St. Petersburg this week for meetings hosted by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). While the FBI has withheld specific details regarding the purpose or schedule of the meetings, the timing closely follows President Trump’s recent deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin to lift sanctions on Russian diesel fuel. Trump also said the US will buy the fuel to deal with surging domestic prices. According to the White House, the US will immediately buy 300,000 metric tons of diesel (equal to 2.25 million barrels of fuel). It should be noted the US exports more than 1.5 million barrels of diesel per day. Trump also called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to halt the strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure. He further asserted that Ukrainians should “replace Zelensky” with someone more open to negotiating a deal with Putin to end the war.

EU leaders will be gathering in Brussels this week to discuss all of these rapid developments with Russia and Ukraine, alongside reviewing the recent trade negotiations between EU envoys and Chinese officials. Those talks resulted in an initial deal that will lower tariffs on some Chinese goods while stabilizing rare earth supply chains and cutting the flood of Chinese electric vehicles into the EU.

Also on the EU leaders’ agenda will be the (again) worsening situation in the Middle East – particularly with Houthi forces striking Saudi Arabia’s main international airport, the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, killing 13 people and injuring more than 300.

The choice of targets suggests that fighting between the Houthis and Saudis is on the verge of significant escalation. Saudi forces are already assisting Yemeni government forces in pushing back Houthis from southern Yemen in an effort to better secure Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is the entrance to the Red Sea.

Looking beyond the high-level talks at the World Bank-IMF meetings in Bangkok, upcoming inflation figures from the U.S. and China will serve as the focus for global markets this week.

In the US, which will have a shortened week due to the Columbus Day holiday, the September CPI report will be released on Wednesday. This will be a significant indicator of where the Federal Reserve may steer rates at its October 28 meeting. Also this week, the Fed’s Beige Book is out on Wednesday, September retail sales figures are out on Thursday, and industrial production numbers are out on Friday.

In Asia this week, China releases the September CPI on Wednesday. It will be a busy day as we will also see PPI and trade data released by Beijing. Japan releases its September PPI on Tuesday along with bank lending numbers. Tokyo releases machinery orders on Thursday.

In Europe, it is a big week for UK data. The UK releases August GDP, industrial production, and the trade balance on Thursday. Eurozone industrial production for August is out on Thursday and CPI on Friday.

Finally, earnings season is back, and we will see most major US mega-banks announce results this week to kick things off.

Below is everything else we are tracking around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Global

· The World Health Summit begins in Berlin, running until October 13.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The China-France Strategic Dialogue began on October 9 and runs through October 13 in Beijing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 12, 2026

Global

· IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings begin in Bangkok, Thailand, and run through October 18th.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the situation in the Middle East, followed by consultations on the situation in Syria.

· The 2026 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Columbus Day in the U.S. The government and financial markets are closed.

· Today is Thanksgiving in Canada, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed.

· President Trump will be campaigning in Ohio for Senator Jon Husted (R-OH) and gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.

· The CAIS Summit begins in Beverly Hills, bringing together alternative-investment managers and independent financial advisers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on the outlook and monetary policy before the National Association for Business Economics 2026 Annual Meeting, “Global Structural Reset: AI, Demographics and Geopolitics.”

· Mexico Industrial Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn will meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow.

· Botswana’s President Duma Gideon Boko travels to Beijing for a five-day state visit including a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. They will discuss further bilateral trade ties.

· Japan celebrates Sports Day. The government and financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

· India Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Foreign Affairs Ministers will discuss the War in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, the security impact of an enlarged European Union, and the situation in Georgia.

· The EU Environment Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss the upcoming COP31 meeting on climate change, the COP17 meeting on Biodiversity and the EU emissions trading system.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Luxembourg through October 13th.

· The EU’s 29th Accession Conference with Montenegro takes place in Luxembourg.

· The Warsaw Security Forum begins and runs through October 13th. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk are among the speakers.

· The Paris Motor Show begins, bringing together global carmakers as Europe’s auto industry faces a pivotal moment, under intense pressure from an influx of highly competitive Chinese brands. .

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Boris Vujčić participate in a in IMF/World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand throughout the week.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden sits for an interview with the Atlantic Council in Bangkok, Thailand on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Meeting.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann participates on a panel at the 68th NABE Annual Meeting in Cleveland, Ohio.

· Romania Balance of Trade (August)

· Turkey Retail Sales (August)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

· Russia Balance of Trade (August)

· EARNINGS: LVMH

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Africa Mining Week and the Africa Energy Week conferences start in Cape Town, South Africa.

· Today is Independence Day in Equatorial Guinea, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 13, 2026

Global

· IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue.

· The IMF semi-annual 2026 World Economic Outlook is released.

· The IMF Global Financial Stability Report is released.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations.

· OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will be campaigning in Alaska for Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will speak on AI at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum 2026 in New Delhi, India.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will participate in a discussion at the Howard University School of Business in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President speaks on “Perspectives on the Economy and Financial Landscape” before the 25th Annual Regional and Community Bankers Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (October/10)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ Monthly Budget Statement (September)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· EARNINGS: Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citi, Johnson & Johnson, FirstBank, JPMorgan Chase, UnitedHealth, Albertsons, Domino’s Pizza

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The first Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation home ministers’ meeting will take place in India.

· The Japan Mobility Show Bizweek will run through Friday at Makuhari Messe in the city of Chiba, near Tokyo. Formerly known as the Tokyo Motor Show, the event is now held in a full-scale format every two years, with the 2026 edition being the smaller version focused on networking and deal-making. It will be co-hosted with the Combined Exhibition of Advanced Technologies (CEATEC).

· Bloomberg holds its New Economy Forum in New Delhi through October 15.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Bank Lending (September)/ PPI (September)

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

· Kazakhstan PPI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss preparations for the upcoming October European Council meeting on Thursday and Friday, as well as pursuing an Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary, the European Democracy Shield, and the omnibus simplification packages.

· The EU’s 10th Accession Conference with Albania takes place in Luxembourg.

· In France, high school students have called for another round of protests.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Boris Vujčić participates in a in IMF/World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel 1 “The Clean Industrial Deal and a European growth strategy” at Friends of Europe Energy and Climate Summit in Brussels, Belgium

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a speech at the pre-Summit dinner hosted by Micheál Martin, Prime Minister of Ireland, ahead of International AI Summit in Dublin, Ireland.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Atlantic Council’s event on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Meetings in Bangkok.

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September) / Long Conventional Gilt Tender/ Treasury Gilt 2063 Tender

· Ireland Construction PMI (September)/ Residential Property Prices (August)

· Germany Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Current Account (August)

· Romania Inflation Rate (September)

· Hungary Construction Output (August)

· Slovakia Construction Output (August)

· EARNINGS: Publicis, Whitbread, YouGov, Bytes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Global

· IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings continue.

· The IAE Governing Board will meet to discuss the state of diesel stock releases.

· The Institute of International Finance begins its annual membership meeting in Bangkok, with speakers to include Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and ECB Governing Council members Gabriel Makhlouf and Jose Luis Escriva.

· The IEA publishes its Monthly Oil Market Report.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to adopt a resolution on Haiti sanctions and to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), followed by consultations.

· A High-Level Meeting of Finance Ministers on the Future of International Tax Cooperation at the United Nations will take place at the UN Conference Centre, on the margins of the 2026 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok.

· The International AI Summit begins in Dublin, Ireland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· FBI Director Kash Patel will travel to Moscow and St. Petersburg for meetings. No agenda has been released.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman participates in a discussion on supervision and regulation at the 2026 Institute for International Finance Membership Summit in Bangkok, Thailand. Later, she speaks at the Bangkok Economic Festival 2026.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President participates in fireside chat at the Chamber RVA Regional Action Summit 2026.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (October/09)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/09)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (October/09)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/09)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ CPI s.a (September)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/09)

· Canada Building Permits (August)

· Brazil Business Confidence (October)

· EARNINGS: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, ASML, BlackRock, Progressive, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (August)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3/ Monetary Policy Statement

· China Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (September)

· India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Tripartite Social Summit takes place in Brussels. The Tripartite Social Summit is a forum for dialogue between the EU institutions at president level and the European social partners at top management level. The summit is co-chaired by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. The participating European-level social partners include: BusinessEurope, the European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC), SGI Europe (association of enterprises with services of general interest), and SMEunited (association of crafts and SMEs in Europe).

· The UK Energy Matters 2026 Conference begins in London.

· Today is Defender of Ukraine Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Vice President Boris Vujčić participate in IMF/World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand. Later President Lagarde participates in on-stage conversation with Richard Quest “Leadership in an age of change” at CNN Global Perspectives event in Bangkok, Thailand. Following this, she participates in a fireside chat with Josh Lipsky organized by the Atlantic Council in Bangkok, Thailand.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ECB-BoE Conference on Supervising Climate Risk in a Non-Linear World in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the World Bank’s Knowledge Café session in Bangkok, Thailand.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a public
lecture at an event to celebrate the foundation of Verein der Freunde und Förderer der Volkswirtschaftslehre an der Universität Mannheim e.V. in Mannheim, Germany.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (September)

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Cit Roundtable in Bangkok.

· UK 14 New Conventional Gilt 2030

· Hungary Industrial Production (August)

· Spain Inflation Rate (September)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

· EARNINGS: Softcat, Ashmore

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Palestine Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, October 15, 2026

Global

· IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings continue.

· The G20 Finance and Central Bank Governors will meet in Bangkok Thailand on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank Meetings.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the situation in the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 5th Montreal Climate Security Summit is hosted by the Conference of Defense Associations Institute and the NATO Climate Change and Security Centre of Excellence.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh participates in a conversation between IMF Managing Director Georgieva via a fireside chat in Bangkok, Thailand.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President speaks on “Leadership and Career Journey” before the Women’s Trading Network Fireside Discussion hosted by Goldman Sachs and Girls Who Code.

· Peru Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Brazil Retail Sales (August)

· Canada Capacity Utilization (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (August)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)/ Wholesale Sales (August)

· USA PPI (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Retail Sales Control Group (September)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/03)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/10)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October)/ Philly Fed Employment (October)/ Philly Fed New Orders (October)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (October)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (September)/ Business Inventories (August)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (August)/ Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (October/09)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (October/15)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/15)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/14)/ Reserve Balances with Fed Banks (October/14)/ NOPA Crush Report

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

· EARNINGs: BNY, Marsh, PNC, Charles Schwab, Alcoa, Cohen & Steers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The China Import and Export Fair, the country’s largest trade exhibition, opens in Guangzhou. Better known as the Canton Fair, the event runs in phases until early November, with exhibitors spanning electronics, machinery, furniture and footwear. This fall’s edition comes amid growing international concern over China’s large trade surplus and accusations that unfair competition is distorting global markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Koeda will speak with local leaders in Kumamoto, Japan.

· Japan Machinery Orders (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/10)/Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Australia Employment Change (September)/ Full-Time Employment Chg (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Part Time Employment Chg (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

· China Vehicle Sales (September)

· Kazakhstan GDP (September)

· India Passenger Vehicle Sales (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

· EARNINGS: TSMC

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Council convenes in Brussels through October 16th to address critical vulnerabilities in the face of heightened geopolitical instability. The leaders will focus on issues related to the economy and on delivering answers to challenges to European competitiveness, including energy prices. They will also discuss the EU’s long-term budget 2028-2034, continued support for Ukraine, hybrid Russian-linked attacks in Europe, migration, enlargement and reforms and the Middle East situation.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Brussels through October 16th.

· The 3-day Scottish National Party Conference begins in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Global Policy Series 2026 in Bangkok, Thailand.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene participates in a panel at the JPMorgan Investor Seminar in Bangkok.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a panel at the Reinventing Bretton Woods Global Macro Program event, Bangkok.

· UK GDP (August)/ Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

· Romania Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

· France Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

· Turkey Budget Balance (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/09)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (August)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (August)

· Serbia Building Permits (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (September)

· EARNINGS: Ericksson, Pernod Ricard, TotalEnergies

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Industrial Production (August)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

Friday, October 16, 2026

Global

· IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings continue.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan, followed by consultations.

· In Yerevan, Armenia, the incoming Armenian Presidency of COP17 will host the Leaders’ Summit on Biodiversityunder the motto “Leaders for Nature”, ahead of the COP17 Conference scheduled for October 19-30.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a panel on AI and the global economy.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

· Canada Housing Starts (September)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (August)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (August)/ CFIB Business Barometer (October)

· USA Import/Export Prices (September)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October/16)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)

· Colombia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· EARNINGS: Travelers, Truist, Citizens Bank, Regions, M&T Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian state lawmakers are scheduled to vote in Rajya Sabha elections for 12 seats, including 10 from Uttar Pradesh.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida reads remarks on behalf of Governor Kazuo Ueda at the National Credit Cooperative Convention in Japan.

· Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman speaks on payments modernization at the Aspen NZ Security Forum.

· South Korea Import/Export Prices (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)/ Food Inflation (September)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (September)/ Non-Oil Imports/Exports (September)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchase

· China New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing (September)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/02)/ Deposit Growth (September/30)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/09)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (August)

· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Czech Republic holds its second round of votes for its senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat at the Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting, Bangkok.

· Turkey Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

· Hungary Gross Wage (August)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

· Belarus Industrial Production (September)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)

· Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Serbia Current Account (August)

· EARNINGS: Schneider Electric

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 17, 2026

Global

· IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings continue. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on a panel at the G30 international banking seminar in Bangkok. He will appear alongside IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso and Bank of Korea Governor Hyun Song Shin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Vancouver, Canada, holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam’s National Assembly is scheduled to hold its second twice-a-year session, running through November 20. Lawmakers are slated to discuss 38 laws, covering housing, cybersecurity, criminal investigations, intellectual property, the state budget, electricity and other matters.

· In Japan, the annual Fall Rites at the Yasukuni Shrine begin. Visits and offerings will be made by rightwing Diet members and cabinet officials. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is unlikely to visit, though she has in the past.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In France, the “yellow vest” movement will hold nationwide protests against high fuel prices.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 18, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Q2 GDP

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· October 11–13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

· October 12: The Nobel Prize for Economics is announced.

· October 12–18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. Finance ministers and central bank governors will be meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

· October 14: The International AI Summit is held in Dublin, Ireland.

· October 19–23: COP13 Conference of Parties to the UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC) takes place in Vienna, Austria.

· October 25: Brazil holds its presidential runoff election.

· October 25–27: The UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 9th World Investment Forum takes place in Doha, Qatar.

· October 26-29: China holds the Fifth Plenary Session of the party’s 20th Central Committee, the most important political meeting for the Chinese Communist Party each year.

· October 27: Israel holds legislative elections, which will determine who will be the next prime minister.

· October 28-29: The 3rd Russia-Africa Summit is held in Moscow.

· October 30–31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The US midterm elections are to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 7: New Zealand holds general elections.

· November 9–20: The United Nations’ COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18-19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· November 29: Spain holds snap parliamentary elections.

· December 1: The UK takes over the presidency of the G20.

· December 2–4: The UN Water Conference is held in the UAE.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14–15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

· January 1: The US takes over the presidency of the G7.

· January 16: Nigeria holds general elections.

· January 18–22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

· January 30: Germany holds presidential elections.

· April 12–18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

· April 18: France holds presidential elections. If needed, a second round has been set for May 2.

Francis Kelly 10/10/26 Francis Kelly 10/10/26

The Global Week Ahead

Brazil Holds Presidential Elections The EU Trade Chief Holds “Super Crucial” Meetings with His Chinese Counterpart in Beijing, Watching India’s Interest Rate Decision, and Markets Await FOMC and ECB Minutes

October 4 - 11, 2026

It will be a relatively quiet week geopolitically when compared to the months of non-stop high impact events and meetings. The big event of the week is the presidential elections in Brazil today (Sunday). Brazilians are voting for a president, all 27 governors, 54 of the 81 Senate seats, and the full 513-seat Chamber of Deputies. Going into the election today, the polls had been razor-close and today’s results show the polls were for the most part correct: As of this evening and with 99% of votes counted and reported, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has won just over 47% of the vote to incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) with 44.9% of the vote and Escritor Agusto Cury coming in with 2.9% - all of which means Brazil is heading into a run-off vote on October 25th.

This has been a highly contentious campaign. Bolsonaro, a close ally of President Trump and son of the embattled and imprisoned former president, Jair Bolsonaro, has promised to crack down on criminal gangs and to strike a new trade deal with the US. Lula who is running in his seventh presidential campaign, has been at odds with Trump over trade and multiple foreign policy issues. But Lula enjoys a strong base of supporters who credit him with improving their lives through his social policies. Watch for a politically intensified atmosphere in Brazil over the next three weeks – which is saying something considering how intense the race has been up to this point – and markets may react to growing political uncertainty.

Also this week, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic travels to Beijing for what he has termed “super crucial meetings” with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. The EU and China have been locked in tough trade talks for months and political pressure from EU capitals is growing to finalize a deal in advance of an October 15th EU leaders meeting in Brussels. The EU essentially has taken a stand that they can no longer tolerate a flood of Chinese goods into Europe, especially Chinese autos, which are putting intense pressure on domestic manufacturers and has forced the closing of plants and mass layoffs (for example, Volkswagen recently announced plans to lay off more than 50,000 workers and close four plants.) The EU markets are effectively being flooded with Chinese goods fueling a €1 billion-a-day increase in the trade deficit with China.

Looking at the Middle East this week, there appears to be little movement on any new peace talks between the US and Iran. But there will be a meeting in Saudi Arabia this week between the defense and foreign ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, along with their respective military chiefs of staff, to discuss how to move forward with the recently announced Mecca Joint Defense Agreement. On the agenda is how to deal with recent Houthi escalations out of Yemen aimed at cutting off commercial shipping in the Red Sea and attacking the Saudi east-west oil pipeline and various oil production facilities.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, other major events of the week will be the release of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Wednesday and the release of the European Central Bank’s rate setting meeting minutes.

In both instances, markets are watching closely for indications of how both central banks are anticipating the threat of inflation risks, especially in Europe.

In the US, the big economic indicator reports being released are the September ISM services index on Monday and the University of Michigan’s October survey on Friday gauging consumer sentiment.

In Asia this week, markets are closely watching the Reserve Bank of India’s rate setting decision as the country continues to grapple with inflation risk because of the Iran War and its impact on oil and exports. Japan’s August labor cash earnings are out on Wednesday, and the September Economy Watchers survey is out on Thursday, with the August household spending figures being released on Friday.

In Europe, Germany’s August factory orders are out on Tuesday, industrial production on Wednesday, and trade balances on Thursday. France releases industrial production numbers on Tuesday and Italy releases its industrial production numbers on Friday. The Bank of England will publish its Bank Liabilities and Credit Conditions surveys on Thursday.

Below is everything else we are tracking around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 4, 2026

Global

· The OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting takes place (virtual).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil holds elections for the presidency, governorships and the Chamber of Deputies and Senate. As of earlier this week, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) holds a slim two-point lead in polls over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (who lost to Lula in the last election and is now serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn the election results).

· Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino will visit Singapore, where he will meet with Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong.

· Peru holds regional and municipal elections.

· Paraguay holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Daylight Saving Time begins in Australia – don’t forget to set your clock forward one hour!

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bosnia and Herzegovina hold presidential and House of Representatives elections.

· The UK Conservative Party Conference begins in Birmingham, England.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Lesotho celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 5, 2026

Global

· The announcement of the 2026 Nobel Prize prizes begins today, starting with the physiology/medicine prize.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a week of travel to Iceland, Greece and Portugal to discuss bilateral ties, regional security and economic cooperation.

· Canada’s Quebec province holds elections. The separatist Parti Québécois is poised to win, but leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged not to call a secession referendum until Trump leaves the White House.

· US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Indian Commerce Secretary Goyal on US-India trade talks.

· The fifth round of India-Canada trade talks begins, with both sides seeking to accelerate negotiations and conclude an agreement this year.

· Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino will visit Vietnam, where he will meet with Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary and President To Lam.

· The U.S. Supreme Court begins its fall term, hearing a number of major cases ranging from energy policy to gun rights to immigration detention policy.

· The Greenwich Economic Forum begins in Connecticut, with speakers to include Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (July)

· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (September)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months/ S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI (September)/ ISM Services Business Activity (September)/ ISM Services Employment (September)/ ISM Services New Orders (September)/ ISM Services Prices (September)

· Canada S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)

· Colombia Exports (August)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will give a policy speech before the Diet as the next parliamentary session opens. Her government plans to submit a slew of bills, including a contentious proposal to cut the consumption tax on food from 8% to 1% for two years. Takaichi is also expected to defend her spending plans and promises to respond flexibly to changes in the economy and financial markets.

· Swiss President Guy Parmelin begins a state visit to India through October 7th.

· Fiji and Tuvalu will host a summit on global warming in partnership with Australia through Thursday ahead of the main COP31 U.N. climate change conference in Turkey in November. Invited global leaders will be able to see how climate impacts and solutions are playing out in the Pacific islands, an area threatened by rising temperatures expected to reach 1.8°C higher than preindustrial levels by the end of the century.

· Today is Labour Day in Australia, a holiday across parts of the country.

· Today is Constitution Day in Vanuatu, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at Japan’s National Securities Convention in Tokyo, Japan.

· Australia S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

· Japan S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 10th EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council meeting takes place today in Brussels. The meeting will be chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas. The Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Vasile Tofan, will lead the delegation of the Republic of Moldova, while Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos, will represent the European Commission. The meeting will provide an opportunity to exchange views on the Republic of Moldova’s EU accession process, on political dialogue and reforms – in particular justice, freedom and security, cooperation and convergence in the field of foreign and security policy, and economic and other sectoral cooperation, with a focus on energy and trade.

· The 8th meeting of the Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan will take place in Moscow, Russia.

· The MED9 Summit, bringing together an informal group of nine southern EU member states, is held in Split, Croatia.

· Today is Republic Day in Portugal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank holds its Conference on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB Chief Economist Philip R. Lane kicks off the conference with a keynote speech.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a meeting with "Ausschuss für Wirtschafts- und Währungspolitik" of the Association of German Banks in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion at the OeNB-SUERF-JVI-Yale Conference in Vienna, Austria. ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher will also speak.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Joachim Nagel gives speech ‘How Geopolitics Is Reshaping Growth, Monetary Policy and the Role of Gold as a Reserve Asset,’ at Global Precious Metals Conference in Sorrento, Italy.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Olli Rehn holds a press briefing in Helsinki on the euro-area economic outlook.

· Spanish central-bank Governor José Luis Escrivá and Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo speak at financial education event in Madrid, Spain.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

· Russia S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)

· Spain S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)

· Italy S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)

· France S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)

· Germany S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

· UK New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Composite/Services PMI (September)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

· Serbia PPI (September)

· EARNINGS: Daiseki

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· A committee of the Makkah Defense Pact between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan will hold talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The meeting brings together defense and foreign ministers as well as army chiefs of staff from all three countries.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

Tuesday, October 6, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (African Union).

· The UN will hold a “High-Level event marking three years since the October 7th attack against Israel, honoring those affected and reflecting on resilience, remembrance, and the path forward.”

· The UN’s World Meteorological Organization will convene the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok, Thailand through October 9th.

· The winner of the Nobel Prize for Physics is announced today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on modernizing regulation and supervision at the 2026 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louis, Missouri.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank CEO & President John Williams moderates a discussion at the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Governance and Culture Reform Conference in New York.

· Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks in fireside chat at Enid Regional Development Alliance luncheon on monetary policy and rural development Oakwood Country Club, Enid, Oklahoma.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a conversation in San Antonio, Texas, with former Banco de Mexico Governor Agustin Carstens.

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Redbook (October/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/02)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (September)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (September)

· Colombia PPI (September)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Constellation Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· OpenAI Chief Strategy Officer Jason Kwon is set to appear in Sydney before the Joint Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence, which examines AI opportunities and risks , including its implications for Australia's national security and strategic resilience. Kwon's appearance comes after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese revealed that an OpenAI agent had gained unauthorized access to data through the public-facing Medicare Statistics Reporting Service portal. OpenAI has apologized for the incident, saying it was "working to do better in the future."

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q3/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q3

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (September)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (September)/ HSBC Services PMI (September)

· EARNINGS: Top Glove

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion at the 17th FMA Supervisory Conference in Vienna, Austria.

· European Central Bank Chair of the Supervisory Board Claudia Buch participates in a panel discussion at the 17th FMA Supervisory Conference in Vienna, Austria. Following this, ECB Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel discussion.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a livestreamed MNI Connect video conference on the digital euro.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann participates in a fireside chat at the TS Lombard Capital Markets Summit 2026 in London.

· Germany Factory Orders (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

· Romania Retail Sales (August)

· Hungary Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· France Industrial Production (August)/ Budget Balance (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

· Spain Industrial Production (August)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

· UK S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

· EARNINGS: Lamb Weston, RPM International

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, October 7, 2026

Global

· World Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (September)

· The Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced today.

· The OECD Forum on Green Finance and Investment at the OECD headquarters in Paris and online, running until October 8.

· IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain-raiser speech in Singapore ahead of this month’s IMF and World Bank annual meetings.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve’s FOMC Meeting Minutes are released.

· US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/02)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (October/02)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/02)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (October/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/02)/ Used Car Prices (September)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (October/02)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Consumer Credit Change (August)

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

· Mexico Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Brazil Car Production (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

· Argentina Industrial Production (August)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

· EARNINGS: Levi’s, Richardson Electronics

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Energy Ministers meet in Manila. They will discuss strengthening energy cooperation and security, particularly as the region continues to grapple with the energy shock from the US war with Iran.

· The Milken Institute Asia Conference begins in Singapore.

· South Korea will carry out the fifth launch of its homegrown Nuri space rocket, its first since a successful operation late last year. The launch will gauge progress in the rocket's ability to put satellites into orbit.

· TOKEN2049, a major crypto conference in Singapore, begins today and runs through October 8th .

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (September)/ Ai Group Construction Index (September)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (September)/ Building Permits (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Economic Index (August)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/06)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (September)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice Chair Boris Vujčić gives a speech in Brussels, Belgium, at an event entitled "The European Commission Bank Competitiveness Report: A Dialogue between EU Policy Makers and the Private Sector." Later in Brussels, he participates in a panel discussion entitled “Beyond The Balance Sheet: How Banks Shape Our Financial System" at an event organized by Capitant Leuven.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion at Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee International Research Fair organized by the Central Bank of the Philippines in Cebu, Philippines.

· Germany Industrial Production (August)

· UK Lloyds House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Interest Rate Decision (October)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

· EARNINGS: Avon Technologies, Hollywood Bowl, Netcall, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Thursday, October 8, 2026

Global

· The Nobel Prize for Literature is announced today.

· The Arctic Circle Assembly begins in Reykjavík and runs through October 10th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) İstanbul Economic Forum, Ümraniye/İstanbul, Türkiye.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank CEO & President Neel Kashkari speaks at the bank’s Institute Research Conference being held in conjunction with the University of Chicago and Stanford University entitled “Macroeconomic Policy Perspectives: The Long-Run Implications of Deglobalization.”

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks at a Bloomberg event in New York.

· Chile Inflation Rate (September)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/03)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/03)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/02)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (October/08)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/08)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/07)

· EARNINGS: PepsiCo, NovaGold

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (August)

· Japan Current Account (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/03)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/03)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (September)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (September)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is expected to visit China through October 9 for talks with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.

· The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss and prepare for a number of upcoming international meetings and developments in the exchange rate.

· An informal meeting of EU Development Ministers will take place through October 9 in Dublin, Ireland.

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. The agenda includes finalizing a market integration and supervision package, exchanging views on the EU Commission’s report on the competitiveness of the banking sector, and assessing the impact of the Ukraine War on the economic outlook and financial markets.

· In the UK, Holborn and St Pancras hold a by-election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Central Bank of Turkey Forum in Istanbul, Turkey.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at the West Midlands Growth Summit in Coventry, UK.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat and Q&A at the Societe Generale Annual Global Markets Conference in London, United Kingdom.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the GZERO Summit in London.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene speaks at the STANLIB Asset Management Offshore Summit 2026 in Cape Town, South Africa.

· UK RICS House Price Balance (September)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Greece Balance of Trade (August)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Südzucker, Tesco, Unite Group, Volution Group, Intercede Group

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Friday, October 9, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the situation in the Middle East, followed by consultations regarding Yemen,

· The Nobel Peace Prize is announced today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins is expected to give brief remarks at a conference in Memory of John Leahy at the Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Full-Time Employment Chg (September)/Part-Time Employment Chg (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/Average Hourly Wages (September)

· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (October)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions (October)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (October)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October/09)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/09)

· El Salvador PPI (September)

· EARNINGS: Delta

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The annual Summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States Heads of State will take place in Turkmenbashi, Turkmenistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (August)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (August)/ Motorbike Sales (September)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/02)

· Turkey Industrial Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Czech Republic holds the 1st round of senatorial elections, extending through October 10th.

· UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham to speak at an “innovation summit” in Manchester, organized by former British PM Gordon Brown.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates virtually in a discussion at the workshop Algo-trading & DeFi – Algorithmic Trading, Decentralized Finance and Artificial Intelligence in Capital Markets in Milan, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a presentation and participates in a panel discussion at the Symposium in Honour of Professor Lars Feld in Lucerne, Switzerland.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Pierre Wunsch speaks at the National Bank of Belgium’s biennial international research conference.

· Hungary Budget Balance (September)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

· Italy Industrial Production (August)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

· Greece Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

· Russia Inflation Rate (September)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Uganda, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

· Angola Inflation Rate (September)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 10, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Taiwan. President Lai Ching-te expected to deliver an address that will underscore his commitment to strengthening defenses for the island democracy, which is claimed by China. This year's speech comes as Taipei faces growing pressure from Beijing's maritime "law enforcement" operations in waters around Taiwan.

· North Korea celebrates Party Foundation Day. Expect a major speech by North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Global

· The World Health Summit begins in Berlin, running until October 13.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· October 4: Brazil holds presidential and legislative elections.

· October 11–13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

· October 12: The Nobel Prize for Economics is announced today.

· October 14: The International AI Summit is held in Dublin, Ireland.

· October 19 – 23: COP13 (Conference of Parties to the UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC) takes place in Vienna, Austria.

· October 25 – 27: the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 9th World Investment Forum takes place in Doha, Qatar.

· October 27: Israel holds legislative elections which will determine who will be the next prime minister.

· October 26-29: China holds the Fifth Plenary Session of the party’s 20th Central Committee, the most important political meeting for the Chinese Communist Party each year.

· October 28-29: The 3rd Russia-Africa Summit is held in Moscow.

· October 30–31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The US midterm elections are to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 7: New Zealand holds general elections.

· November 9–20: The United Nations’ COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 1819: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 1: The UK takes over the presidency of the G20.

· December 2–4: The UN Water Conference is held in the UAE.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14–15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

· January 1: The US takes over the presidency of the G7.

· January 16: Nigeria holds general elections.

· January 18–22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

· January 30: Germany holds presidential elections.

· April 12–18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

· April 18: France holds presidential elections. If needed, a second round has been set for May 2.

Francis Kelly 9/29/26 Francis Kelly 9/29/26

My JP Morgan Podcast Interview On The Upcoming US Midterms

A Blue Wave or a Blue Surge? Or Status Quo?

It was a great pleasure to join JP Morgan’s Chair of Global Research, Joyce Chang, and Signum Global Advisors Chairman and Founder, Charles Myers, in London recently for the “All Into Account” podcast to discuss the upcoming US midterm elections.

We discuss the shifting electoral landscape, affordability and oil pressures, post-election policy risks, AI politics, and the 2028 presidential field.

You can watch or listen via the link below or on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.

Link: JP Morgan All Into Account Podcast

Francis Kelly 9/28/26 Francis Kelly 9/28/26

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Rejects Iran’s Latest Proposal But Expects Additional Talks This Week, Brazil Holds Presidential Elections, Switzerland Votes on Stricter Neutrality, and Markets Await New Inflation Data

September 27 - October 4, 2026

After last’s weeks hectic schedule—which included President Trump’s much anticipated summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping and numerous important side meetings at the UN General Assembly—this week will be relatively quiet.

The two major geopolitically focused events this week will be next steps on US-Iran negotiations and Brazil’s presidential elections. Following meetings at the UN with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Iran offered a new proposal that would require the US to release frozen funds, lift oil sanctions, and end the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump rejected the offer on Saturday but told reporters on Sunday he expects further diplomatic talks with Iran this week. The location of the talks and the form they will take are unclear. Additionally, President Trump has said that in the absence of a deal he expects the US to begin bombing Iran again after the US midterm elections.

Meanwhile, fighting between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabian forces seems to be intensifying. French President Emmanuel Macron has sent troops, radar and air defense systems to help protect Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline from further Houthi attacks. And Turkish and Pakistani military chiefs are in Riyadh for urgent meetings on implementing their newly signed mutual defense agreement; however, the formal activation trigger remains undefined and the exact scope of military assistance from Turkey and Pakistan to Saudi Arabia is unclear.

The second big event this week is Brazil’s presidential elections on October 4th. The last major polls taken before the vote suggest incumbent President Lula has a very slim lead over challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. There is a significant chance a run-off vote will have to be held on October 25th as most of the polls show Lula and Bolsonaro below the 50% threshold to win an outright victory (the third candidate, Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party, is running far behind Lula and Bolsonaro). Also, Brazilians will be voting for all 54 federal senators, 513 federal deputies, 26 state Governors and 1,059 state deputies.

Switzerland held a referendum today (Sunday) on whether to make its constitutionally mandated neutrality even more strict. Early results suggest 71% of voters rejected the proposal. If the referendum had passed, it would have barred Switzerland from imposing sanctions not backed by the UN Security Council. Additionally, Switzerland would have been prohibited from cooperating with military alliances unless it came under attack. The proposal was strongly backed by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party and is publicly supported and promoted by Russia (mostly due to Switzerland’s support and adoption of the EU’s sanctions on Russia in 2022).

Looking at the economic and financial radar screen, markets are focused on flash CPIs in Europe and Japan, China’s PMIs, and the US PCE and jobs report.

On Friday, the US jobs report will be released with the consensus expecting a 45,000 uptick in September’s payroll numbers. The report will follow two other important labor reports: The August JOLTS report on Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday. We will also get a better read on inflation in the US with the August PCE release on Wednesday. Additionally this week, we will get the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index on Tuesday and the ISM manufacturing index on Thursday.

Canada reports July GDP figures on Tuesday and its latest PMI data on Thursday.

Turning to Asia, Japan has a big week of economic data releases: the Bank of Japan minutes are out on Monday, August Industrial Production numbers on Wednesday, the Tankan Survey on Thursday, and CPI on Friday. China is equally busy with the August industrial profits report on Monday and September PMI gauges on Wednesday, all in advance of its Golden Week celebration. Also this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates on Tuesday.

In Europe, September Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reports will be the main focus: Spain releases its report on Tuesday; Germany, France, and Italy on Wednesday; and the Eurozone on Friday.

We also note that European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has announced she is stepping down to become the head of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department effective January 3rd. It is unclear who will replace her, and we will likely see a significant amount of lobbying and jockeying among EU members pushing their respective candidates.

Below is our detailed report on all other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, September 27, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is expected to attend the Presidents Cup golf event in Illinois. Later, he will host Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for a private dinner at the White House.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Turkmenistan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France holds elections for 178 seats of the French Senate.

· Switzerland holds a vote on two major referendums. Chief among them is a Neutrality Initiative which seeks to introduce a stricter approach to neutrality and enshrine into the constitution the provision that “Switzerland’s neutrality is perpetual and armed.”

· The UK Labour Party conference begins in Liverpool.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· São Tomé holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 28, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question. Ramiz Alakbarov, Deputy Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, is expected to brief. The briefing will include new Israeli settlement activity.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A new US import ban on Canadian goods takes effect at midnight tonight. Goods included are beer, wine, cider, whiskey, vodka, rum, whey products, and larger-capacity motorcycles and mopeds.

· The US Senate is expected to vote on legislation aimed at regulating the energy costs for data centers nationally.

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Washington. He then will meet with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan.

· Canada hosts ‘Pathways to Peace: Second International Conference on Returning Ukrainian Children, Detained Civilians and Prisoners of War’, a ministerial conference co-organized with Ukraine and Norway to address the human dimension of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

· SpaceX will hold a test launch of its 14th Starship.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a talk on recent developments in bank supervision and regulation at the Military Banking Summit 2026 (virtual).

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a fireside chat in Middleburg, Virginia.

· Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)

· EARNINGS: Genius, Vail Resorts, Jefferies, ATCH

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan releases its BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

· The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank holds its annual meeting in Doha.

· China Industrial Profits (August)

· Malaysia PPI (August)

· India Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

· EARNINGS: Shein

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) meets in Brussels. Defense ministers will discuss the current situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, and hybrid threats posed by Russia. Additionally, Ukraine Defense Minister Evgeniy Khmara will talk with the ministers about air defense, EUMAM Ukraine, industrial cooperation, and countering the Russian shadow fleet.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through Tuesday. Ministers will discuss the post-2027 common agricultural policy (CAP), the current agricultural market situation, EU policies for fisheries, aquaculture, and maritime policy for 2028-2034.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU energy ministers through Tuesday in Brussels.

· UK Chancellor John Healey will address the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool. This will be a closely watched speech as Healey is expected to “frame” his Budget proposals in advance of actual fiscal statement he will be making on October 28.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks at a hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the XVII Expansión Financial Forum in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Alvaro Santos Pereira speaks at a tourism summit in Lisbon, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson chairs a panel at the 2026 ECB/ESCB Legal Conference "Independence, not isolation: central banks and their connections with other authorities" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden gives a speech on quantitative tightening, co-hosted by Money Macro and Finance Society at the Bank of England, London.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

· EARNINGS: Christie Group, Guoco Group, Likewise, Redcentric, Tullow Oil

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 29, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is expected to adopt a resolution on the mandate of the Gang Suppression Force in Haiti and will hold a briefing and consultations on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).

· The UN General Assembly concludes its week-long series of meetings and speeches.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) are expected to meet with technology CEOs to discuss AI and efforts to regulate the sector.

· OpenAI CEO Sam Altman delivers the opening keynote at OpenAI’s DevDay 2026 in San Francisco, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Federal Reserve System Community Bank Cyber Workshop (virtual).

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives remarks on the economic outlook at the Conversation with Michael S. Barr on the State of the Economy, Detroit, Michigan.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before “The Economy Ahead" luncheon hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Albert Musalem speaks before the London School of Economics and Political Science in London, UK.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote and participates in conversation at the University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York.

· Bloomberg holds its Canadian Finance Conference in New York. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle will speak.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Net Payrolls (August)

· Canada GDP (July)

· USA Redbook (September/26)/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ JOLTS Job Openings (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ JOLTS Job Quits (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/25)

· Argentina Current Account Q2

· EARNINGS: Carnival, CarMax, Concentrix

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will raise fees for foreign nationals seeking residence status changes and stay renewals, replacing the current flat rate with a tiered system based on permit length. For five-year permits, in-person application fees will rise from 6,000 yen ($37) to 75,000 yen, while the fee for permanent residency will jump from 10,000 yen to 200,000 yen. The government is also expected to revise its permanent residency guidelines, introducing new requirements, including income criteria.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates. A press conference will follow the meeting.

· The 14th OECD-AMRO-ADB-ADBI-ERIA Asian Regional Roundtable on New Frontiers begins at the Asian Development Bank headquarters in Manila. The event runs through September 30.

· Australia Household Spending (August)

· South Korea Business Confidence (September)

· Singapore Import/Export Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

· Japan Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

· China Current Account Q2

· EARNINGS: New World Development

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham gives keynote speech to the Labour Party conference in Liverpool. The conference concludes on Wednesday. Separately, City of London aldermen elect the Square Mile’s next Lord Mayor, who will take office in November.

· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a visit to Madrid, meeting with members of the country’s royal family and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks at the 2026 ECB/ESCB Legal Conference "Independence, not isolation: central banks and their connections with other authorities" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs panel 4 at the 2026 ECB/ESCB Legal Conference "Independence, not isolation: central banks and their connections with other authorities" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujčić chairs panel 6 at the 2026 ECB/ESCB Legal Conference "Independence, not isolation: central banks and their connections with other authorities" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion "Digital Capital Markets of the Future – Navigating the Next Wave" at Deutsche Bundesbank's 4th Finanzplatzkonferenz in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the 50th Anniversary NY Fed Central Banking Seminar in New York.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann participates on a panel at the McKinsey Global Institute, The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and divergence in London’.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives the Dow Lecture on the topic of Expectations and the Risk of Inflation Persistence: what we know, what we don’t know, and the Implications for Policy at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London.

· UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (September)/ BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Approvals (August)/ Mortgage Lending (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

· Spain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (September)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

· Italy Industrial Sales (July)/ PPI (August)

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

· EARNINGS: Airea, AG Barr, Card Factory, Close Brothers, Ebiquity, Hornbach, Made Tech, S&U

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Palestine Current Account Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Global

· The G20 Trade Ministers will meet in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to deliver “State of the Force” address at the Pentagon.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks on the state of the rural economy at the 2026 Investing in Rural America Conference, Asheville, North Carolina.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin gives welcome and opening remarks before the "2026 Investing in Rural America Conference: The Strength of Rural Places" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in partnership with the Federal Reserve System and Rural LISC (Local Initiatives Support Corporation).

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives remarks before the “Why Consumers and Economists See Different Economies" event, a collaboration between the Chicago Fed and the research organization NORC at the University of Chicago.

· AI Overview

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari is scheduled to participate in an exclusive fireside chat with CNBC Senior Economics Reporter Steve Liesman. The event is part of the Council on Foreign Relations' C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (September/25)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/25)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (September/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/25)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Personal Income (August)/ Personal Spending (August)/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ PCE Price Index (August)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (August)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (August)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Sales Q2/ Real Consumer Spending Q2/ Real Personal Spending (August)/ Chicago PMI (September)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (September/25)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat (September)

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ PPI (August)

· Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

· Paraguay Current Account Q2

· El Salvador Current Account Q2

· Peru Inflation Rate (September)

· EARNINGS: Micron, Basset, Conagra

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Martyrs’ Day in China, honoring veterans. Chinese President Xi Jinping and senior Communist Party officials gather at Tiananmen Square for the occasion.

· The Samsung AI Forum 2026 begins in Seoul, South Korea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Japan Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ PPI (August)

· Australia Building Permits (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (August)/ CPI (August)/ Housing Credit (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (August)

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (September)/ NBS General PMI (September)/ RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (September)/ RatingDog Services PMI (September)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (September)

· Singapore Bank Lending (August)

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

· Thailand Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption (August)/ Private Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

· India Government Budget Value (August)/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to the Western Balkans for meeting through October 2nd. She will visit Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, and North Macedonia to meet with leaders and discuss a variety of EU-funded projects. However, she will skip traveling to Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina because those countries have upcoming elections (October 25th and October 4th, respectively) and she does not want to be seen as interfering with them.

· France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu presents the 2027 finance bill to parliament in Paris. Lecornu previewed the proposal last week, saying the government is seeking a massive €54 billion set of cuts in order to contain the country’s growing deficit in the face of almost no economic growth and the looming presidential elections next year.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU health ministers in Brussels through October 1st.

· Russia’s newly elected Duma convenes for the first time. United Russia (which is President Vladimir Putin’s party) won 349 of 450 seats, beating its 2016 record of 343. The CPRF won 37, LDPR 23, New People 19 and A Just Russia 17. It was the first parliamentary election since the full-scale war began, conducted with genuine opposition barred and amid reports of widespread fraud.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council will hold a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the 8th Annual EC-EIB-ESM Capital Markets Seminar: Financing Europe in Luxembourg.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at the 4th International Conference of Banking Supervisors hosted by the Bank for International Settlements in Bali, Indonesia.

· UK Car Production (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Nationwide Housing Prices (September)/ Business Investment Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Ireland Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Germany Retail Sales (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Unemployed Persons (September)/ Unemployment Change (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (August)/ PPI (August)

· France Inflation Rate (September)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)/ Household Consumption (August)/ PPI (August)

· Turkey Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Imports/Exports (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (September)

· Italy Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

· Spain Current Account (July)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Ukraine Current Account (August)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Business Confidence (September)/ Corporate Profits (July)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)

· EARNINGS: AOTI, Avation, Eurokai, NAHL Group, Northcoders, Saga, Spire Healthcare

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ PPI (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, October 1, 2026

Global

· Greece assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of October.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate is expected to go into recess until after the November midterm elections. The House of Representatives went into recess 10 days ago.

· Tesla is expected to unveil its new Roadster car.

· NASA and SpaceX are expected to launch the Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks on Federal Reserve Economic Data at FRED Con: Navigating Trust, AI & Storytelling in a World of Data, St. Louis, Missouri.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the US Economy and Monetary Policy and then participates in a Q&A in Charlottesville, Virginia.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives remarks on Modernizing Financial Regulation: Initial Observations from eSLR at the Atlantic Council’s Conversation with Michelle W. Bowman, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on global central banking at the

Central Banking Seminar (virtual). Joining her will be New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the Economic Club in Washington, D.C.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives welcoming remarks at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank’s 5th Annual Workship on the Macroeconomic Implications of Migration being held in Dallas, Texas.

· Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce and CFA Society Victoria.

· Costa Rica Current Account Q2

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/26)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/19)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/26)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (September)/ Construction Spending (August)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (September)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/25)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (October/01)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/01)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/30)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

· Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Fiscal Balance (August)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2

· Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

· EARNINGS: McCormick, Accenture, Nike, Acuity

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 77th National Day in China, commemorating the founding of the People’s Republic of China. It is a national holiday. It is also the beginning of Golden Week in China, running through October 7th. Tens of millions of Chinese citizens are expected to travel in the country, visiting long-distance family members during the week. Hong Kong markets are closed, and mainland financial markets are shut through October 7th.

· South Korea celebrates Armed Forces Day. The day is commemorated at an event at the military headquarters of Gyeryongdae and is expected to involve some 4,000 troops.

· Today is Independence Day in Tuvalu.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (August)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (September)/ Commodity Prices (September)

· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q3/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/19)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/26)/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3/ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q3/ Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q3/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q3

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Sri Lanka PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/25)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the overall state of the Schengen area and exchange views on priorities for the Schengen Council cycle 2026-2027. They will also speak about migration, the EU drugs strategy, and mutual home security issues.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to speak at the annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think tank.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcoming address at the 10th annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board "ESRB@15: may you stay forever young" in Frankfurt, Germany. At the same conference she then chairs a panel discussion "Us in the mirror: How to ensure that the EU financial system contributes to a strong EU?"

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives opening remarks at the LSE/Bank of England Future of Money conference in celebration of Charles Goodhart in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a policy panel at the research conference "The Future of Money", a conference in celebration of Charles Goodhart, in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the Alvarez & Marsal Crisis Management Forum in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives remarks followed by a discussion at EuroCommerce's Payments Day, "A pivotal moment to complete the single market for payments," in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at the S&P Global Ratings' European Financial Institutions Conference 2026 in Paris, France.

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee member Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Nomura Investor conference in London.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill chairs a panel discuss at the LSE/Bank of England Future of Money Conference in London.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel joins former Banque de France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau for an OMFIF discussion in London.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (August)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

· EARNINGS: James Halstead

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Palestine GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

· South Africa Budget Balance (August)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)

Friday, October 2, 2026

Global

· World FAO Food Price Index (September)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)/ Industrial Production (August)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Weekly Hours (September)/ Government Payrolls (September)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September)/ Factory Orders (August)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October/02)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s stock markets are closed in celebration of Gandhi Jayanti, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (September)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ Tokyo CPI (September)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (September)/ Monetary Base / Consumer Confidence (September)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

· Singapore Retail Sales (August)/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

· Thailand Business Confidence (September)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)

· India Bank Loan Growth (September/15)/ Deposit Growth (September/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/25)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss EU criminal justice cooperation, protecting civil society and journalists, and combatting racism and related forms of hatred and discrimination.

· The Green Party of England and Wales Conference begins in Brighton and the Plaid Cymru Conferences begins in Llandudno.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujčić gives the keynote speech at the 10th annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board "ESRB@15: may you stay forever young" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the 10th Conference of Mediterranean Central Banks "Digital currencies, payments and reserve management. Implications for the Mediterranean Central Banks" in Roda de Berá, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a panel discussion "¿Qué será, será? The financial system in the next fifteen years" at the 10th annual conference "ESRB@15: may you stay forever young" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Spain New Car Sales (September)/ Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Italy New Car Registrations (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Russia GDP (August)

· Romania PPI (August)

· UK DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (September)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (September)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

· EARNINGS: Kernel, Skillcast Group, JD Wetherspoon

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Guinea, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

Saturday, October 3, 2026

Global

· Fiji hosts the Pre-COP31 meeting through October 8th. The meeting aims to help countries move forward with discussion and find consensus points ahead of the November UN Climate Change Conference (COP31).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany celebrates National Unity Day, commemorating the 1990 reunification of East and West Germany.

· Latvia holds parliamentary elections. All 100 members of the Saeima are up for elections by open- list proportional representation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· France New Car Registrations (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Iraq, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Sunday, October 4, 2026

Global

· The OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting take place (virtual).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil holds elections for the presidency, governorship and the Chamber of Deputies and Senate. As of earlier this week, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) holds a slim two-point lead in polls over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (who lost to Lula in the last election and is now serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn the election results).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Daylight Saving Time begins in Australia – don’t forget to set your clock forward one hour!

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bosnia and Herzegovina holds presidential and House of Representatives elections.

· The UK Conservative Party Conference begins in Birmingham, England.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Lesotho celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

· October 4: Brazil holds presidential and legislative elections.

· October 11–13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

· October 12–18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

· October 27: Israel holds legislative elections which will determine who will be the next prime minister.

· October 26-29: China holds the First Plenary Session of the party’s 20th Central Committee, the most important political meeting for the Chinese Communist Party each year.

· October 30–31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The US Midterm elections are to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9–20: The United Nations’ COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18–19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14–15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

· January 18–22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

· April 12–18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

Francis Kelly 9/20/26 Francis Kelly 9/20/26

The Global Week Ahead

The UN General Assembly Begins in New York, Xi and Trump Hold a Three-Day Summit in Washington, Mideast Tensions Intensify, Germany Holds Tense Elections, and Markets Wait for Global PMIs

It is by any measure going to be an extraordinarily busy week. Between the 81st United Nations General Assembly bringing together more than 130 state leaders, to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meetings in Washington with President Trump, to tensions in the Middle East now at a new inflection point, and today’s potentially historic regional elections in Germany, it would not be an overstatement to say the world will likely look quite different by week’s end. As the old saying goes, “there are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”

Breaking it down, on Thursday, President Xi arrives for a three-day summit with President Trump. There will be a formal state dinner and numerous scheduled discussions set between the leaders to discuss everything from the future of AI, the Iran War, numerous Indo-Pacific security issues, and finalizing trade agreements between the two nations.

We do not believe the discussions on AI and the potential national security threats to either country (or the world) will lead to any formal policy agreements. At best, we may see the announcement of a new focused track of talks and consultations between China and the US on better AI governance cooperation, but no binding agreements.

Subscribe now

There is the possibility China will offer to step in and mediate a peace deal between the US and Iran, but we think that is unlikely. Beijing publicly urged Tehran last week to rein in Houthi threats to Red Sea commercial shipping . But because the request was viewed as non-threatening, so far, Iranian leadership has not acted on it.

On trade, markets will focus heavily on whether a 12-month trade truce— which allows rare earth mineral export to the US— will be extended. It is unclear what the US is likely to offer China for a broader set of trade concessions, but we suspect President Trump will delay future arms sales to Taiwan as a good-will gesture.

Ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting, tensions in the Middle East are reaching new highs as Houthi forces consolidate power in southern Yemen and intensify their verbal threats to seal off the Red Sea. Additionally, Houthi drones and missiles hit the Saudi Arabian capital of Riyadh on Saturday. While most of the missiles were destroyed by Saudi interceptors, fuel tanks at the King Khalid International Airport were hit and destroyed. The attacks were seen as a serious escalation between the Houthis and the Kingdom, raising fears a new war could break out between the two. Saudi Arabia is already suffering the loss from Houthi strikes on their transnational oil pipeline and other oil production facilities.

In an effort to advance a possible peace deal, President Trump will be meeting with Gulf leaders in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. It is anticipated the meetings will include leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman. Other Middle Eastern leaders may also join the meeting. Trump said last week – without providing details – that he had “spoken directly with Tehran” in a bid to hammer out a cease fire.

However, Trump also said he is in “deciding mode” about possibly launching a new set of large-scale strikes on Iran. He met with senior defense advisors over the weekend at Camp David. He went on to say “I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?”

Trump will have an exceedingly tight schedule at the UN. He will address the General Assembly on Tuesday and will hold additional side meetings with leaders, including UK Prime Minister Andrew Burnham, Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodriquez, and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi aims to emphasize to Trump Japan’s security concerns regarding China in advance of the Xi-Trump meeting and reiterate Japan’s investment commitments to the US.

We would note it is interesting who will not be speaking at the UN General Assembly this week: Russian President Vladimir Putin is skipping the event entirely, as is Chinese President Xi Jinping, despite being in the US.

Also absent will be German Chancellor Friedrich Merz who announced late last week he was cancelling the trip to deal with the fall-out of the regional elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania today (Sunday). Merz’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) Party polls were in single digits going into today’s elections, with the far-right AfD Party looking to score another shock victory. Merz is now facing rebellion within the party and calls for him to step down as Chancellor (which is unlikely to happen). However, Merz is likely to move to sooth internal tensions and also seek new policy shifts to blunt the growing popularity of the AfD.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, aside from the significant geopolitical issues and risks presenting themselves this week, markets will be looking at global September flash PMIs coming out on Wednesday.

Breaking it down by region, in the US, beyond the PMI print on Wednesday, we will see new home sale figures out on Thursday and the durable goods print on Friday. Also on Friday we will get the latest University of Michigan Consumer Survey.

In Asia, China’s 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates are set on Monday.

And in Europe, Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Thursday and consumer confidence numbers on Friday. France releases its business confidence and consumer confidence numbers on Thursday. And the UK releases their consumer confidence report on Friday. Additionally, the central banks of Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland decide on interest rates, all on Thursday.

Below is our detailed report on all other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, September 20, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany holds state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The latest polls show the far-right AfD Party has grown since their recent electoral victory in Saxony-Anhalt.

· Russia concludes three days of voting for the Russian Duma (Parliament).

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through September 21st in Dublin, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Bloomberg holds its Qatar Economic Forum in New York around the UN General Assembly. H.E. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, Prime Minister & Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 21, 2026

Global

· The 81st UN General Assembly begins in New York and runs through September 25th. The theme of this year’s meeting is “Restoring Trust, Managing Transformation: A United Nations That Delivers to All.”

· G7 Foreign Ministers are expected to hold an informal meeting on the margins of the UN General Assembly.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Directors will meet in Vienna, Austria.

· IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks at the IMF Legal Department 80th anniversary conference in Washington

· Today is Yom Kippur, the most sacred day in the Jewish calendar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representatives is out of session until after the November midterm elections. The US Senate remains in session this week.

· Today is Independence Day in Belize, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaks on monetary policy at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions (OMFI) Forum in London .

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at a Halifax Partnership event in Halifax, followed by a press conference.

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

APEC Transportation Ministers meet in Beijing through September 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japanese stock markets are closed through September 23rd for three holidays: Respect for the Aged Day (September 21), Citizen’s Holiday (September 22), and the Autumnal Equinox Day (September 23).

· Vietnam officially gets its FTSE Russell upgrade to emerging market status after a five-year effort.

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/ Loan Prime Rate 5Y (September)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (August)

· Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

· Hong Kong Current Account Q2

· India Infrastructure Output (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Prime Minister Andrew Burnham is scheduled to address the UN General Assembly. While at the UN, he will meet with President Trump on the sidelines.

· Today begins Estonian Defense Week (through September 25th) in Tallin. The event brings together more than 4,000 domestic and international defense experts to discuss defense, security, innovation, and cooperation.

· Today is Independence Day in Armenia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the ECB roundtable on Pontes launch in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel discussion at the ECB roundtable on Pontes launch in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Members Peter Kazimir and Primoz Dolenc speak at a National Bank of Slovakia conference in Bratislava.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Fabio Panetta speaks at the 10th Annual Research Conference, “Central Banks’ Response to Future Challenges: Resilience, Credibility, and Innovation,” organized by the National Bank of Ukraine and the Narodowy Bank Polski.

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (August)/ Employment Growth (August)/ PPI (August)

· Greece Current Account (July)

· Slovenia PPI (August)

Middle East/

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Construction Cost Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is scheduled to address the UN General Assembly. U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly to discuss the Iran conflict. He will also meet with Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodriguez. Additionally, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is seeking a meeting with Trump to “…reinforce Japan’s position that China must be deterred from military and economic coercion…” in advance of Trump’s meeting later in the week with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

· The Office of the US Trade Representative holds a public hearing in its Section 301 investigation of German pharmaceuticals.

· The Clinton Global initiative 2026 begins in New York and runs through September 23rd.

· The Bloomberg Green New York Conference takes place in New York through September 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give a speech entitled “Discount Window Modernization and Treasury Market Functioning” at the 2026 Treasury Market Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. NYFRB President John Williams will give keynote remarks.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will give remarks at the CFA Society of Baltimore lunch in Baltimore, Maryland.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· Mexico Retail Sales (July)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (September/19)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (September)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (September)/ Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/18)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

· EARNINGS: KB Homes, AutoZone

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan celebrates Citizens Holiday Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock participates in a fireside chat in Sydney; Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter gives a podcast interview; and Monetary Policy Board member Iain Ross speaks at the University of Melbourne.

· Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman gives an economic update at a business lunch co-hosted by Business South and Forsyth Barr.

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)

· Tawain Export Orders August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through September 21st in Dublin, Ireland.

· The Joint Air & Space Power Conference begins in Essen, Germany.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video address at the 10th Annual Research Conference “Central Banks’ Response to Future Challenges: Resilience, Credibility, and Innovation” organized by the National Bank of Ukraine and Narodowy Bank Polski.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at the annual Foreign Bankers Association conference in Amsterdam, Netherlands. Also speaking at the event will be ECB Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen.

· Bank of England Executive Director, Financial Market Infrastructure, Bank of England and Steering Committee Member, Digital Markets Champion Industry Taskforce Sasha Mills speaks at the City and Financial Global Implementing the UK wholesale Financial Markets Digital Strategy Summit in London.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher gives keynote address at 10th Annual Research Conference, “Central Banks’ Response to Future Challenges: Resilience, Credibility, and Innovation,” organized by the National Bank of Ukraine and the Narodowy Bank Polski. Later, ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus speaks on panel.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel gives speech at Society of Professional Economists annual dinner in Frankfurt, Germany.

· UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (August)/ New Conventional Gilt 2032/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

· Switzerland Current Account Q2

· Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· Spain Balance of Trade (July)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (September)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

· EARNINGS: PureTech, Smiths, Henry Boot, Kingfisher, Origin Enterprises

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Mali, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Global

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski will address the UN General Assembly.

· The UN Security Council will meet on AI. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will brief the Council

· The OECD Interim Economic Outlook will be published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Marcin Kamsyz will meet with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in Washington. The meeting will center on Poland’s ongoing push for a permanent U.S. military troop presence in the country and updates regarding a proposed permanent U.S. Army base.

· The GoSec Cybersecurity Conference begins in Montreal and runs through September 24th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks at the Housing Affordability 2026: A Community Development Summit, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg gives a keynote speech at the Meta Connect developer conference, focused on AI, smart glasses and virtual reality (virtual event).

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (September/18)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/18)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (September/18)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/18)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (September/18)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

· Argentina Retail Sales (July)

· EARNINGS: Cintas, Paychex, General Mills, Cracker Barrel

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The International Conference on Combating Online Scams begins in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The event is being held in conjunction with Interpol and U.N. agencies. The meeting, whose theme is “Acting together towards breaking the chain and eradication of online scams,” will bring together people from governments, international organizations, law enforcement agencies, financial institutions, technology companies and academia.

· The Global Digital Trade Expo begins in Hangzhou, China and runs through September 27th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan celebrates Autumn Equinox Day. Financial markets are closed.

· The Asian Development Bank releases its quarterly Asian Development Outlook Report, giving their official economic forecast. The report is being closely watched as it will reveal more details of the impact of the Iran energy shock and El Nino weather pattern to the broader region.

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

· India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (September)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (September)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (September)/ Lending Facility Rate (September)/ Loan Growth (August)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an EU General Affairs Council meeting in Brussels. The agenda includes Multiannual Financial Framework 2028-2034 and preparations for the October European Council.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujčić participates in a fireside chat at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2026 “Digital banking, digital supervision: innovation, resilience and scale” in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Neli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion at the International Conference on Finance “Navigating through uncertainty” in Warsaw, Poland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives remarks followed by a panel discussion at Fondazione ResPublica event in Milan, Italy.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies in Geneva, Switzerland.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Governing Council member Ante Zigman speaks on the macroeconomic outlook at the Lider conference in Zagreb.

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (July)

· France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Consumer Confidence Q3/ Industrial Production (August)

· EARNINGS: Manchester United, OVS, Renishaw, Soul Patts

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

· Palestine Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Morocco holds elections for its House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Thursday, September 24, 2026

Global

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will address the UN General Assembly.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House.

· Vietnamese President To Lam will travel to Canada for bilateral meetings with Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat before the Economic Club of Washington D.C.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives opening remarks at the Bank’s Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams will participate in a fireside chat with Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden at the London Macro Policy Forum in London.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson gives opening remarks and participates in the “Fintech Evolution: Looking a Decade Back and a Decade Forward” discussion before hybrid 10th Annual Fintech Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September)/ BCB National Monetary Council Meeting

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ PPI (August)

· USA Building Permits (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/19)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/12)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/19)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/18)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (September)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (September/24)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/24)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/23/

· Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (July)/ CFIB Business Barometer (September)

· Colombia Business Confidence (August)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

· Argentina Economic Activity (July)

· Paraguay PPI (August)

· EARNINGS: Costco, Darden, Blackberry

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (September)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (September)

· Australia Employment Change (August)/ Full-Time Employment Chg (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/18)

· Philippines Budget Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be a meeting of the EU Competitiveness Council in Brussels. The agenda includes the Chips Act 2.0, review of EU merger control guidelines, and a discussion of EU economic security.

· The Isle of Man holds elections for the House of Keys.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in the opening conversation at the Women Economic Forum Europe 2026 in Salsomaggiore Terme, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a fireside chat at the BFF-EBF-SUERF conference “Simplifying Europe’s financial services regulation and supervision” in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the University of Lausanne in Lausanne, Switzerland.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give the keynote address at the London Macro Policy Forum in London.

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will speak at the London Macro Policy Forum in London.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli will speak at the 6th Biennial Conference “Macroeconomic Policy in a Heterogeneous and Imperfectly Ration World” Conference in Poland.

· The ECB’s Eurozone Economic Bulletin is published.

· EU New Car Registrations (August)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· France Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Business Climate Indicator (September)

· Spain PPI (August)

· Poland Business Confidence (September)

· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (September)/ Ifo Current Conditions (September)/ Ifo Expectations (September)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

· UK CBI Distributive Trades (September)

· EARNINGS: H&M, Raspberry PI, Vestry Group

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

· Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, September 25, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in a policy panel before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2026.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on a panel with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at the Monetary Economics Conference in Oxford, England.

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (July)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (August)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp(August)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (August)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (September)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (September/25)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/25)

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Panama Current Account Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China celebrates the Mid-Autumn Festival. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Philippines Budget Balance (August)/ Business Confidence (August)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

· Singapore Industrial Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (August)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Leo’s visit to France will begin. He will visit the recently reconstructed Notre Dame Cathedral, and hold talks with President Emmanuel Macron.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on a panel with New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams at the Monetary Economics Conference in Oxford, England.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a panel discussion “¿Qué será, será? The financial system in the next fifteen years” at 10th annual conference “ESRB@15: may you stay forever young” in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujčić participates in a policy panel at the Inflation Conference jointly organized by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the ECB in Cleveland, Ohio.

· UK GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

· Hungary Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· France Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2

· The ECB August Monetary Developments report is published.

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (August)/ Loans to Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Greece Total Credit (August)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 26, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Thailand New Car Sales (August)

· Philippines Consumer Confidence Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany will host a meeting of EU Interior Ministers to discuss critical immigration reforms, border control and mutual security strategies..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 27, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Turkmenistan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France holds elections for all 178 seats of the French senate.

· Switzerland holds a vote on two major referendums. Chief among them is a Neutrality Initiaive which seeks to introduce a stricter approach to neutrality and enshrine into the constitution the provision that “Switzerland’s neutrality is perpetual and armed.”

· The UK Labour Party conference begins in Liverpool.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· São Tomé holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

· October 4: Brazil holds presidential and legislative elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

· October 11 – 13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

· January 18 – 22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

· April 12 – 18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

Francis Kelly 9/18/26 Francis Kelly 9/18/26

The Global Week Ahead

Houthi-Saudi Clashes Escalate and Red Sea Shipping Comes Under Greater Threat, Canadian Prime Minister Carney to Pitch “Associate EU Membership,” and a Big Week at the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England

September 13 -20, 2026

It is going to be a very busy week ahead. Between an anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate hike, the escalating Saudi-Houthi conflict threatening all Red Sea shipping, understanding the implications of the last-minute cancellation of an Iran-Gulf State leaders meeting to discuss a new Strait of Hormuz passageway, markets will likely struggle to keep pace with the rapid geopolitical shifts.

Last week’s Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's overland east-west oil pipeline (threatening more than 4% of global oil production) along with the Houthi’s lightning-strike victories over Saudi-and UAE-backed Yemeni forces are proving to be a significant game-changer to the already tense regional situation. Houthi forces were able to quickly capture the strategically located Yemeni city of Mokha along with Mayun Island. The island – also known as Perim – sits directly in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, giving Houthis effective control of the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Additionally, the Houthi advances now position the Iranian proxy forces to launch new attacks on several Saudi cities close to the Yemen border. The question now is what do Saudi and UAE military forces do in response, and will the US support the two Gulf State allies by launching new attacks on Iran as well as attacking Houthi forces on Mayun Island and in Southern Yemen to protect the Red Sea?

One immediate result of the Houthi advances is the abrupt cancellation Sunday night of a high-level meeting hosted by Oman between Iran and seven Gulf State leaders. The leaders were going to discuss a possible temporary new passageway through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets had been hoping the meeting would allow for further freeing up of shipping through the Strait.

Also this week, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Strasbourg, France, to give an extraordinary address to the European Parliament. Carney's speech – which comes one day after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's annual State of the EU speech – is expected to propose that the EU grant Canada "Associate Membership" to strengthen bilateral trade ties in the wake of the ongoing trade fights with President Trump. His visit and speech will also help lay the groundwork for the EU-Canadian Summit being held in Canada in October.

It will be a very busy week for Carney. He travels to France after hosting the Canada Investment Summit 2026 in Toronto, which will bring together more than 250 top global finance CEOs and aims to attract C$1 trillion in long-horizon capital over five years.

Also this week in Europe, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will hold its General Conference in Vienna. The agenda will heavily focus on Iran's and North Korea's nuclear programs, and we are also likely to learn more about Iran's apparent renewed efforts to rebuild its nuclear program at Pickaxe Mountain.

Two important elections are scheduled this week. Voting for Russia’s State Duma (parliament) begins Friday. The strongly pro-Putin legislature is unlikely to change because the Kremlin controls the official results. However, polls show greater voter frustration with the Ukraine War and its mounting impact on the Russian economy. This has led to the ruling United Russia Party going into the elections with some of the lowest approval ratings ever.

The other election is likely to be much more impactful to markets: Next Sunday, Germany will see the next two sets of state elections - Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania - following the shock elections in Saxony-Anhalt that gave the far-right AfD Party its first major victory. Polls indicate the AfD is leading in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) are leading in Berlin.

Finally, we would note that the BRICS Leaders' Summit concluded on Sunday in New Delhi. The leaders of China, Russia, India, Iran, and the rest of the 11-member BRICS nations presented a united front in the final communique calling for "maximum restraint" in the Middle East while condemning "deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities" – a thinly-veiled swipe at President Trump and US policy in the region.

On the global economic and financial radar this week, the biggest event for markets is the Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the rest of the Committee are under market pressure to raise interest rates amid growing inflation worries and surging Treasury yields. But Warsh is clearly stuck between a rock and a hard place as President Trump continues to demand the Fed go the other way and cut rates. The President has also warned the Fed that if it does not lower interest rates, he will "stop trading with countries with which we have a deficit."

We expect the pressure on Warsh and the Fed to grow on Tuesday when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on the state of the international financial system and the overall economy. He's expected to echo President Trump in pushing for no rate increase.

Also this week, the Bank of Japan meets and is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points amid growing external economic pressures, including oil prices, as well as pressure to address ongoing foreign exchange stability issues.

Additionally, the Bank of England meets this week, but consensus suggests it will hold rates.

Among the week's major economic releases, the US will release August retail sales figures on Wednesday and industrial production numbers on Friday.

In Asia this week, Japan's trade data and core machine orders are due Wednesday, and the August CPI print is due Friday. China releases industrial production data, retail sales, and fixed-asset investments on Tuesday.

In Europe, Germany's September ZEW survey is out on Tuesday, the UK's labor market data is released on Tuesday, the August CPI print is out on Wednesday, and retail sales and the GfK consumer confidence index are out on Friday.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Voting for the Okinawa gubernatorial election will take place. The race is between the incumbent governor, Denny Tamaki, who is backed by the opposition parties, and a challenger supported by parties including the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. The crucial election will influence the direction of the relocation of a US military base within the prefecture.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s Trade Unions Congress (TUC) begins in Brighton and runs through September 16th. TUC brings together 47 member unions to discuss policy and advocacy positions, important to the ruling Labour Party agenda.

· Sweden holds parliamentary elections. All 349 members of the Riksdag are up for election.

· The EU Arctic Summit begins in Rovaniemi, Finland. Hosted by Finish Prime Minister Petteri Orpa, the event runs through September 14th and brings together an invited group of EU leaders to discuss a common strategic approach to the Arctic region “as its geopolitical significance continues to grow rapidly.” The Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs along Russia’s Arctic coast, has seen a significant spike (more than a 40% increase year over year) in commercial shipping through the area with the melting and breaking up of parts of the Arctic cap.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 69th Commonwealth Parliamentary Conference will take place in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 14, 2026

Global

· The 70th International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Conference will be held in Vienna, Austria and run through September 19th.

· The G20 Energy Ministerial takes place in Houston Texas through September 16th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney hosts the Canada Investment Summit 2026 in Toronto. The event will bring together more than 250 top global finance CEOs and aims to attract C$1 trillion in long-horizon capital over five years. Among them will be BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Blackstone CEO John Gray. On the sidelines of the Summit will be two major private events: The Milken Institute Global Dialogue and the Canadian Global Growth Forum.

· The US Senate returns from its August recess.

· Brazil holds its second presidential debate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Inflation Rate (August)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ CPI Common (August)/ CPI Median (August)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (July)

· Brazil Business Confidence (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN Economic Ministers meeting takes place in Manila through September 15th.

· The autonomous region of Bangsamoro in the Philippines holds its first permanent government. More than 2 million voters are expected to vote in the southern Philippine’s region, and it is hoped the election of the autonomous region government will help bring peace to the heavily Muslim area after decades of conflict.

· The Thai king and queen will make a state visit to Vietnam through September 16th to help celebrate more than 50 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (August)/ Services NZ PSI (August)/ Visitor Arrivals (July)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

· India WPI Food Index (August)/ WPI Fuel (August)/ WPI Inflation (August)/ WPI Manufacturing (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production Q2

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy through September 15th in Dublin, Ireland.

· The European Arctic Summit takes place in Rovaniemi, Finland. The meeting, which runs through September 14th, will be hosted by Finish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo. The agenda will cover ways to strengthen the EU’s common strategic approach to the Arctic region which has seen a large spike in commercial shipping – mostly by China – in the last few years. Attendees will include Chancellor of Germany Friedrich Merz, Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Estonia Kristen Michal, Prime Minister of Latvia Andris Kulbergs, President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda, President of Romania Nicușor Dan and Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs of France Jean-Noël Barrot. President of the European Council António Costa and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs, Security Policy Kaja Kallas.

· NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, will receive the Prime Minister of Slovenia, Janez Janša, at NATO Headquarters, in Brussels.

· The NATO Digital Backbone eXperimentation (DiBaX) – NATO’s annual research and testing event designed to advance security military communications, multi-domain interoperability, and next-generation battlefield technology -- will be held in in Riga, Latvia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech and participates in a panel discussion at the "Hofburg im Dialog – Economy, Europe, Resilience" in Vienna, Austria.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) Symposium on European Competitiveness in Berlin, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at an event at House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a fireside chat at the Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference 2026 in New York,

· Hungary Construction Output (July)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (August)

· Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

· EARNINGS: MP Evans Group (HY), Global Data (HY), Greencoat Renewables (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 15, 2026

Global

· The World Trade Organization publishes its latest World Trade Report on trends and policy challenges on the opening day of the WTO Annual Public Forum.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US tariff modifications on Canadian goods go into effect.

· US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give the “Annual Testimony of the Secretary of the Treasury on the State of the International Financial System” before the House Financial Services Committee.

· The US Congress returns from the Labor Day holiday. The House of Representatives is expected to vote this week on a Russian sanctions bill which has already passed the Senate in July.

· Delaware holds primary elections.

· Today is Independence Day in Costa Rica, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Cay in El Salvador, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Guatemala, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Honduras, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (July)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (September)/ Redbook (September/12)/ NOPA Crush Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/11)

· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (July)/ Wholesale Sales (July)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)

· Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Xiangshan Defense Forum and the 4th China-Africa Peace and Security Forum will take place in China. This is the country's top security and military meeting involving defense officials and scholars from around the world. The three-day event is expected to feature discussions on international order and strategic stability, as well as dialogues on regional hotspots like Ukraine and the Middle East. Washington is reportedly sending an official from the Pentagon after dispatching a military attaché last year.

· The first meeting of the Conciliation Commission under the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea between Thailand and Cambodia starts in Singapore. The Thai delegation will be led by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow.

· In China, A new enforcement regime takes effect on the borders, giving immigration officers broader powers that some worry could make it harder to leave or enter the country. According to Nikkei News, it remains to be seen how the measures will be implemented, tougher questioning and demands for supporting documentation to prove one's reasons for traveling are expected. The stricter screenings come as China also strengthens its global tax dragnet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import/Export Prices (August)

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (August)

· China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (July)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

· Turkey Budget Balance (August)

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will meet with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. The meeting will take place as part of Pistorius’ trip to the US for a rollout of F-35 warplanes purchased by Germany

· Members of the European Parliament will hear from EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas on the recent escalation of Russia’s hybrid attacks against member states and how to protect the EU’s territorial integrity, and critical security and defense infrastructure. The Parliament will then vote on a resolution on Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the opening keynote speech at the Watching European Financial Market Regulation and Supervision Conference organized by the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and the Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel discussion at conference on Watching European Financial Market Regulation and Supervision organized by the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE and the Center for Advanced Studies on the Foundations of Law and Finance at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participate in a dinner exchange with members of the SPD Economic Forum in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Member of the External Financial Policy Committee Carolyn Wilkins gives a speech at Queens University in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (August)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ ZEW Current Conditions (September)

· Romania Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)

· UK Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (July)/ Claimant Count Change (August)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)/ Conventional Gilt

· Hungary Industrial Production (July)

· France Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (August)

· Spain Inflation Rate (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (August)

· Italy Balance of Trade (July)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (July)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)

· Greece Construction Output Q2

· Serbia Building Permits (July)

· EARNINGS: City of London Investment Group (FY), Everplay Group (HY), Kier (FY), Princes Group (HY), Trustpilot (HY), Wickes (HY), MJ Gleeson (FY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Industrial Production (July)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

· Israel Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, September 16, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes two days of meetings on interest rates. A press conference with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh begins at 2:30 p.m.

· The Bank of Canada releases their Summary of Deliberations from the September interest rate meeting.

· Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Building Permits (July)

· Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (September)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (September/11)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/11)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (September/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/11)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Import/Export Prices (August)/ Retail Sales Control Group (August)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (August)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (September)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (September/11)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (July)

· Colombia Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee is due to unveil the city's first five-year plan, aiming to strengthen its position as a financial center in support of Beijing's own five-year blueprint. The move to adopt Communist Party-style planning has raised eyebrows in a city known for laissez-faire capitalism. But authorities have stressed that the plan will help Hong Kong serve the cause of national development without compromising its free-market economy.

· Today is Independence Day in Papua New Guinea, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Current Account Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/15)

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Machinery Orders (July)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

· China FDI (YTD) (August)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/31)

· Kazakhstan GDP (August)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Services PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden gives the annual State of the European Union speech in Strasbourg, France.

· The International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) Prague Defense Summit begins and runs through September 18th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends the festive opening of Alte Oper season in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujčić chairs a policy panel entitled "Geoeconomics and Trade: Risks, Resilience and Policy Responses" at ECB Annual Research Conference 2026 "Geoeconomics and the International Trading System" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the opening keynote speech at the Nature Finance and Resilience Day of Climate Finance Week Ireland in Dublin, Ireland.

· UK Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI Input/Output (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

· Hungary Gross Wage (July)

· Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (July)/ Labor Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

· Ireland Balance of Trade (July)/ Residential Property Prices (July)

· Poland Inflation Rate (August)

· Belarus Industrial Production (August)

· Russia PPI (August)

· EARNINGS: WHSmith, Barratt Redrow (FY), Bolloré (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3/ Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 17, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is expected to vote on renewing the mandate of the panel of experts supporting the 1737 sanctions committee on Iran.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney gives a special address to the EU Parliament in Strasbourg, France. Carney is expected to raise the idea of Canada being given “associate member” status with the EU in the wake of ongoing political and trade tensions with the US.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (July)/ PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

· USA Building Permits (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/05)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/12)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ Philly Fed Employment (September)/ Philly Fed New Orders (September)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (September)/ Pending Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/11)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (September/17)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/17)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/16)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Leading Indicator (August)

· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q2

· EARNINGS: Lennar

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In India, the Semicon India conference begins and runs through September 19th. It brings together government officials and global executives, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi who will inaugurate the new event. Other speakers include the CEOs of Advanced Micro Devices, Infineon Technologies and LAM Research.

· The 23rd China-ASEAN Expo + China-ASEAN Business and Investment Summit begins in Nanning, China and runs through September 21st. China’s Vice Commerce Minister Yan Dong recently framed the event around building out the China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement.

· The Tokyo Game Show, one of the world's largest gaming conventions, will begin in the city of Chiba next to the Japanese capital. Now in its 30th year, it will run for five days and host a total of 1,138 businesses from around the world, ranging from major gaming studios to indie developers, hardware manufacturers and even construction companies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan begins its two-day Monetary Policy meeting.

· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Q3

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/12)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (August)/ Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

· Turkey Auto Production (August)/ Auto Sales (August)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (August)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (August)

· Taiwan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia holds elections for the Duma (parliament) through September 20th. 450 seats are up for election. Going into the election, the United Russia ruling party is leading in all polls.

· South Ossetia holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane chairs the Jean Monnet lecture "Economic Size and Economic Power" delivered by Paul Krugman at ECB Annual Research Conference 2026 "Geoeconomics and the International Trading System" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· The Bank of England meets on Interest rates. It will also release its Monetary Policy Summary and minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in September.

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (August)/ SECO Economic Forecasts

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (September)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/11)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Serbia Current Account (July)

· EARNINGS: Galliford Try (HY), Helvestia Baloise (HY), LPP (HY), Next (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3/ Building Permits (July)

Friday, September 18, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Chile, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on “The Final Chapter on Bank Stress Test Reforms” hosted by the City of London in London.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)

· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

· USA Industrial Production (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (September/18)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/18)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (July)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN economic ministers will gather in Manila, Philippines. The primary agenda includes food security, the digital economy and stronger trade links. But the real focus will be on how to deal with the region’s slowing growth caused by the Iran War and other global issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan decides on Interest Rates.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives evidence to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Canberra.

· South Korea PPI (August)

· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Food Inflation (August)

· Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (August)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

· India Bank Loan Growth (August/30)/ Deposit Growth (August/30)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/11)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Dublin, Ireland. After the meeting, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference. Then there will be an informal meeting of EU Finance Ministers through September 19th. UK Chancellor John Healey has been invited to attend the informal meeting.

· The NATO Military Committee Conference – gathering all 32 NATO defense chiefs – will be held in Denmark and runs through September 19th. They are expected to discuss how to further provide aid to Ukraine and counter increased Russian hybrid warfare against NATO members in recent months.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Belarus GDP (August)

· EU ECOFIN Meeting

· Germany PPI (August)

· UK Retail Sales (August)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (August)

· Poland Industrial Production (August)

· Euro Area Current Account (July)/ Current Account s.a (July)/ Construction Output (July)

· Italy Construction Output (July)/ Construction Output (June)/ Current Account (July)

· Slovakia Current Account (July)

· EARNINGS: Wolford (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 19, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 20th Asian Games begin in Aichi-Nagoya, Japan. This is Asia’s largest sporting event and runs through October 4th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s Liberal Democrats hold their Autumn conference in Brighton.

· Oktoberfest officially begins in Munich, Germany.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 20, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany holds state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The latest polls show the far-right AfD Party has grown since their recent electoral victory in Saxony-Anhalt.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through September 21st in Dublin, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers’ and central bank governors’ meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

· October 11 – 13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

· January 18 – 22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

· April 12 – 18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

Francis Kelly 9/11/26 Francis Kelly 9/11/26

The Global Week Ahead

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Begin Again, The BRICS Leaders’ Summit Gets Underway, the 81st UN General Assembly Starts with World Leaders Set to Arrive, and Markets Are Focused on ECB Rates and the U.S. PCE Report

September 6 - 13, 2026

After months of little diplomatic movement, it appears that efforts to find a peaceful end to the Russian War on Ukraine have begun again. U.S. Special Envoys Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff spent three hours with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday before flying to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This is the first time Kushner and Witkoff have traveled to Kyiv for meetings. While all sides said the meetings have gone “well,” there are few details emerging yet as to what is being discussed as possible outlines of a deal.

However, Putin did inform Kushner and Witkoff that the battlefield situation is “difficult” but claimed Russian military forces are making “real progress” on the battlefield (which, by many accounts, is contrary to the facts on the ground). The meeting comes after the recent surprise visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow. We would also note it comes following a report in The Economist of Putin telling aides “they will hang me” if he fails to win control of the Donbas and wins the war. While he did not specify, “they” is most likely a reference to his far-right/ultranationalist base. According to recent polls, public sentiment in Russia is increasingly tense and souring on the war in the wake of growing Ukrainian drone attacks and a distinct lack of confidence in the country’s long-term future.

In the Americas this week, Canada begins its dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on Tuesday. They will hit a number of U.S. products with a range of 15% to 50%. And the U.S. Congress is out for the Labor Day holiday.

Also this week, the BRICS Leaders’ Summit gets underway in New Delhi, India. The agenda is packed, with talks likely to focus on harnessing greater cooperation among the Global South, trade, energy cooperation, and climate issues. What will be particularly interesting is an expected sideline meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Modi is keen to become more engaged in helping to find a solution to the ongoing Iran War to avoid damaging the Indian economy. So far, India has been able to defy expectations that the war would damage the economy, reporting last week 7.8% growth between April and June, comfortably beating most forecasts; however, concerns over the spiking costs of diesel oil, natural gas, and fertilizers are worrying leaders in New Delhi.

In Europe, leaders this week will be trying to digest the implications of the German far-right AfD victory in the Saxony-Anhalt state elections. Exit polls suggest the AfD won as much as 44.4% of the vote, with the right-of-center CDU winning 18.4% and the far-left Die Linke Party coming in with 9.3%. Of particular note: voter participation was at a record high of 76.5%. There are two more state elections in September in Germany, and the AfD is, so far, polling well in both those races.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big focus of markets will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on rates on Thursday and U.S. PPI and CPI prints.

Despite it being a short week in the U.S. (Monday being the Labor Day holiday), it is going to be a big week for economic reports. The August PPI is out on Thursday and the August CPI – which is closely watched by the Fed – is out on Friday. Following Friday’s blowout jobs report, worries over persistent inflation, and rising energy costs (especially with diesel prices now over $6 a gallon and rising), the Federal Reserve is under growing pressure to raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meetings. Amplifying his pressure campaign against the Fed, President Trump is now demanding the Fed cut rates, and if it does not, he is threatening to stop trading with any nation that has a deficit with the U.S.

Also this week in the U.S., the University of Michigan survey for September is out on Friday. And, notably, the U.S. Treasury begins its expanded long-end liquidity-support buybacks Wednesday.

As noted above, the ECB announces its decision on rates on Thursday, and the consensus is they impose a 25-basis-point hike, bringing the rate to 2.50%. Also in Europe this week, Germany releases industrial production numbers on Monday, and its trade balance on Tuesday. The UK releases its July GDP on Friday.

In Asia this week, China releases trade balance figures on Tuesday and its CPI and PPI on Wednesday. Japan releases the August Economy Watchers Survey on Tuesday along with July labor cash earnings. And on Friday, we will see Japan’s PPI print.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, September 6, 2026

Global

· OPEC+ meets virtually to review market conditions.

· The 3rd BRICS Sherpa/Sous-Sherpas’ meeting takes place in New Delhi, India through September 9th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexican Foreign Secretary Roberto Velasco Álvarez is in China for a two-day set of meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's inv. He will then travel on to Chongqing to open a new Mexican consulate. One of the major issues being discussed is China’s role near-shoring in Mexico as part of the ongoing USMCA negotiations with the US and Canada.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt state hold elections for the state parliament and local district councils. This election is attracting international attention as the far-right AfD Party is leading in the polls and have a good shot at winning. If that happens, most observers believe it will likely give the AfD significant momentum for future national elections.

· In London, Jamaican officials visit to lodge an unprecedented legal complaint calling for reparations for slavery.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 8th in Dublin, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Swaziland, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 7, 2026

Global

· In The Hague, the International Court of Justice will hold public hearings September 7-10 on the preliminary objections raised by Germany in the case concerning Alleged Breaches of Certain International Obligations in respect of the Occupied Palestinian Territory. The charges were brought by Nicaragua.

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will hold meetings through September 11th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· It is Labor Day in Canada and the U.S. All financial markets and banks are closed.

· Ukrainian President Zelensky travels to Toronto for meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

· Mexican Foreign Minister Alvaraz will travel to China for meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

· Mexico Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnamese Secretary General To Lam travels to Moscow for meetings with President Vladimir Putin through September 9th. They are expected to discuss energy, defense, security, and bilateral cooperation issues. The Secretary General then travels on to Paris for meetings with President Emmanuel Macron and then on to New York to attend the UN General Assembly.

· The U.S.-Korea-Japan joint military exercise “Freedom Edge” begins off the coast of South Korea and runs through September 13th. The exercises are being held despite North Korea vowing to retaliate against U.S. hostilities and condemning the exercises.

· The Seoul Defense Dialogue begins in Seoul, South Korea and runs through September 9th. The event is hosted by the Ministry of National Defense.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The EU/UK/Ukraine New High-Level Group on Defense is expected to hold its first meeting in Brussels. Created last week by the EU Chief Diplomat, Kaja Kallas, it is comprised of former political and military leaders to advise on how to better defend each entity in the face of growing Russian hostilities.

French President Emmanuel Macron and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will co-host Lumiere Summit in Paris. The event is expected to bring together about 150 participants from more than 30 countries, including representatives from the film, audiovisual and video game industries. Lee will then spend three more days in consultation with Macron on trade and mutual security issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Industrial Production (July)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

· UK Lloyds House Price Index / BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

· Hungary Industrial Production (July)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Euro Area Employment Change Final Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q2

· Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· EARNINGS: Ashmore, Burkhalter, Gamma Communications, Sigma Roc, Standard Life

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Global

· The 81st UN General Assembly begins in New York.

· In Geneva, the Outer Space Security Conference 2026, organized by the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), will take place at the Palais des Nations through September 9th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canada’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. come into effect. The tariffs range in size from 15% to 50%, matching President Trump’s recently enacted tariffs dollar for dollar. A full list of U.S. products subject to the counter tariffs can be found HERE.

· Jury selection is due to begin in a New York court as Chinese telecommunications equipment giant Huawei faces a trial for alleged evasion of U.S. sanctions against Iran, intellectual property theft and other accusations. The company has pleaded not guilty in the case, which shook China's relations with both the U.S. and Canada.

· New Hampshire holds primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (September/05)/ Used Car Prices (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)

· Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Argentina Industrial Production (July)

· EARNINGS: ABM Industries, Braze

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

· South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Final Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (September)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July)/ RBA Hunter Speech/ RBA Hauser Speech

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at the Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin, Germany.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak before Parliament’s Treasury Select Committee on the August Monetary Policy Report.

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)/ Chancellor John Healey Speech

· Ireland Construction PMI (August)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

· EARNINGS: Computacenter, Dunelm, Funding Circle, James Fisher and Sons, Rubis, Theon, Uniphar

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Global

· The 2nd BRICS meeting of Finance and Central Bank Governors meets in Mumbai, India.

· The World Nuclear Symposium begins in London and runs through September 11th.

· The International Space Summit, hosted by the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, begins in Paris. The event is expected to bring together a large group of politicians, policy experts, scientists and astronauts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Republican Midterm Convention opens in Dallas, Texas. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to speak.

· Rhode Island holds a primary election.

· Apple hosts an event unveiling the latest iPhone.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Peter Routledge, Canada’s Superintendent of Financial Institutions, is speaking at the Scotia Bank Summit on September 9th and at the Economic Club of Canada on September 11th.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (September/04)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/04)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (September/04)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/04)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/04)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· El Salvador PPI (August)

· Peru Balance of Trade (July)

· EARNINGS: U.S. – American Eagle Outfitters, Chewy, Cooper Companies, Signet Jewelers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 11th Belt and Road Summit begins in Hong Kong and runs through September 10th.

· The Manila Strategy Forum 2026 begins in Manila, the Philippines and runs through September 10th. It is co-hosted by the U.S. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Amador Research Services.

· Hong Kong hosts BIOHK2026, a major four-day biotech conference. Speakers and exhibitors from around the world are due to showcase cutting-edge research and discuss policy trends and industrialization opportunities. The event comes as China's fast-growing biotech industry is increasingly in the spotlight.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

· China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchase/ Machine Tool Orders (August)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Norway holds a funeral for King Harald V in the Oslo Cathedral.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council begins meetings on interest rates at the Deutsche Bundesbank in Berlin, Germany. ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a speech at an official dinner that evening.

· Hungary Budget Balance (August)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

· Romania Balance of Trade (July)

· France Industrial Production (July)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (August)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

Thursday, September 10, 2026

Global

· The BRICS Business Council Annual meeting takes place in New Delhi, India.

· The Speakers of G7 Parliaments meeting begins in Paris and runs through September 12th.

· OPEC Monthly Oil Production Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will speak at the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas.

· Bloomberg hosts its Power Players Conference in New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA PPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/05)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/29)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/05)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (August)/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Natural Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (September/04)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (September/10)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/10)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/09)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: U.S. – Adobe, Macy’s, Oracle

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China hosts meeting of APEC Energy Ministerial meeting in Beijing.

· The inaugural Luzern Economic Corridor (LEC) Investment Forum begins in Manila, the Philippines. The event brings more than 600 investors, industry leaders, and senior government officials and is co-hosted by the Philippines, Japan, and the U.S.

· The Ho Chi Minh City Friendship Dialogue 2026 (FD -2026) begins in Ho Chi Minh City and runs through September 12th. The event brings together more than 500 investors looking at investments in technology, manufacturing, and human resource development.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Kazuyuki Masu speaks to local business leaders in Fukui, Japan.

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/05)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (June)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (August)

· Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Turkey Industrial Production (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (September)/ Overnight Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The Riga Conference 2026 begins Riga, Latvia and runs through September 11th. The conference brings together regional and international foreign policy and defense experts, academics, journalists, and business leaders to discuss and assess the key challenges facing the transatlantic community. Russia’s increasing hybrid warfare against Europe is expected to be a main topic of the event.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council concludes the 2nd day of meetings on interest rates. There will be a press conference with President Lagarde following the announcement of the decision on rates.

· The Bundesbank hosts the 21st Central Bank Conference on the Microstructure of Financial Markets through September 11th in Eltville am Rhein, Germany.

· UK RICS House Price Balance (August)/ New Conventional Gilt 2030

· Germany Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate Final (August)

· Slovakia Construction Output (July)

· Spain Industrial Production (July)

· Italy Industrial Production (July)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Industrial Production (July)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ ECB Marginal Lending Rate

· Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

· EARNINGS: Associated British Foods, Currys, Fevertree Drinks, Genus, John Lwis Partnership, Playtech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)

· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

Friday, September 11, 2026

Global

· The International Energy Administration’s Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

· France hosts G7 Parliamentary Speakers Summit 2026 in Paris. The event brings the Speakers of each G7 Parliament together to discuss “multilateral dialogue, democratic resilience, and global legislative cooperation.”

· Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year, begins this evening.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 25th anniversary of the al-Qaida attacks on New York City and the Pentagon in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

· Mexico Industrial Production (July)

· USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ CPI s.a (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (September)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (September/11)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (July)

· EARNINGS: Kroger (U.S.)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ PPI (August)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Kazakhstan PPI (August)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Turkey Current Account (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/04)

· Indonesia Car Sales (August)

· China Vehicle Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage interview at the Banque Populaire Caisse d’Epargne Group Executive Summer University. Later, she will attend an event at Fête de la Pomme in Épreville-en-Lieuvin, France.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane delivers the Richard Cantillon lecture at the 49th Dublin Economics Workshop Annual Economic Policy Conference 2026 in Wexford, Ireland.

· Romania Inflation Rate (August)

· UK GDP (July)/ GDP 3-Month Avg (July)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Serbia Inflation Rate (August)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Germany Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)

· Oman Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 12, 2026

Global

· The 18th BRICS Summit takes place in New Delhi, India through September 13th. The theme of the meeting is “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is scheduled to travel to Ireland for meetings with Irish President, Catherine Connolly. He will also hold bilateral meetings with the Taoiseach Michael Martin before traveling to the Trump golf course in Doonbeg, County Clare. Ireland is holding the Presidency of Council of the European Union through the end of 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Sweden holds parliamentary elections. All 349 members of the Riksdag are up for election.

· The EU Arctic Summit begins in Rovaniemi, Finland. Hosted by Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, the event runs through September 14th and brings together an invited group of EU leaders to discuss a common strategic approach to the Arctic region “as its geopolitical significance continues to grow rapidly.” The Northern Sea Route (NSR), which runs along Russia’s Arctic coast, has seen a significant spike (more than a 40% increase year over year) in commercial shipping through the area with the melting and breaking up of parts of the Arctic cap.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

· September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

· October 11 – 13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The U.S. Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, 1/3 of the U.S. Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

2027

· January 18 – 22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.

· April 12 – 18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Global Week Ahead

My JP Morgan Podcast Interview On The Upcoming US Midterms

The Global Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Sunday, September 20, 2026

Monday, September 21, 2026

Tuesday, September 22, 2026

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Thursday, September 24, 2026

Friday, September 25, 2026

Saturday, September 26, 2026

Sunday, September 27, 2026

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Global Week Ahead

Subscribe to our newsletter.