Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 4/27/26 Francis Kelly 4/27/26

The Global Week Ahead

Geopolitics and Central Bank Action Converge, King Charles Visits Washington in an Effort to Bolster “The Special Relationship”, Japan’s Prime Minister Visits Vietnam and Australia, and a Big Corporate Earnings Week

April 26 - May 3, 2026

It is a big week for markets and geopolitics as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada each meet on monetary policy while the Iran War remains stalemated.

Efforts to move forward on negotiations between the United States and Iran failed this past weekend. President Trump pulled back his two lead negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, from going to Islamabad, Pakistan, mostly because it was not clear Iranian negotiators would show up.

The situation is likely to remain fluid this week as Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and other countries try to quietly patch together next steps for talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, is traveling to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation. But one thing is clear: The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially bottled up as the U.S. Navy continues its blockade (enhanced now as a third aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS George Bush arrives in the region).

Central banks are watching the Iran situation closely and its impact on the global economy, trying to decide interest rate policy. The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada announce their decisions on Wednesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday. Market consensus points to all five central banks holding on any moves on rates.

We would note that it now appears Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell, will move forward after the U.S. Justice Department drops its criminal investigation of Powell. Dropping the case allows a number of U.S. Senators who had vowed to block Warsh’s confirmation until the investigation was dropped to allow the vote to move forward. The Senate Banking Committee is now scheduled to hold a confirmation vote on Warsh on Wednesday, which means the full Senate could vote by the end of the week.

Also this week, King Charles will be in Washington for the first state visit by a British monarch to the United States in almost 20 years. While the King and Queen Camilla will tour the US as part of their visit, it comes with a critical purpose for the UK: mending and reinforcing the “US-UK special relationship,” which has become increasingly brittle in recent months as President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have sparred on everything from trade to the Iran War.

Elsewhere in the world this week, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit Vietnam and then Australia. Her visit to Vietnam is particularly important as she is expected to stress Japan’s determination to push a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” agenda, seeking Vietnam’s greater involvement in ensuring maritime security in the South China Sea – pushing back on China’s growing aggressive efforts to control the sea.

Takaichi is then expected to travel to Australia to meet with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, where the two leaders will sign an economic security pact focusing on critical minerals, while also hammering out new agreements covering energy assurances and greater defense cooperation.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the central bank meetings discussed above are the major focus. But there are a number of major economic reports being released this week that markets are watching closely. In the US, Q1 GDP is released on Thursday, as is the March PCE (a favorite data point for the Federal Reserve when deciding on interest rates). The US Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday, while the ISM Manufacturing Index is out on Friday.

In Asia, China’s PMIs are released on Thursday and Japan’s industrial production, retail sales, and consumer confidence are out on Thursday, and the April Tokyo CPI is out on Friday.

And in Europe this week, Germany and Spain report April CPI on Wednesday. The Eurozone Q1 GDP is out on Thursday.

Finally, we would note that this week is a very big week for corporate earnings. It will be quite interesting to hear the collective forward guidance from many companies as economic uncertainty grows as a result of the Iran War.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 27, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

· The UN’s International Conference on Effective Nuclear and Radiation Regulatory Systems: Strengthening Competence, Agility and Connection in the Modern Era will take place through April 30th in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla begin a state visit to the US, which includes a White House State Banquet and an Address before Congress.

· The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Balance of Trade (March)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

· Brazil Bank Lending MoM (February)/ Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· EARNINGS: Verizon, Nucor, Fairfax Financial (CAN), Universal Health Services, Crown Holdings, Domino’s Pizza, Crane,

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Food and Beverage Innovation Forum begins in Hangzhou, China. The three-day event will cover the latest food trends and technologies, while investors will be scouting for deals, as global chains like Starbucks partner with private equity firms to compete in the world's No. 2 economy.

· Israeli President Isaac Herzog will pay an official visit to Astana, Kazakhstan, through April 28th.

· Anzac Day is observed in New Zealand. Financial markets are closed.

· The militaries of the United States, the Philippines, Australia, Japan and other US partners will jointly conduct the Balikatan drills in the Philippines through May 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits YoY (March)/National People's Congress Standing Committee

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

· Maylasia PPI YoY

· Japan Coincident Index Final (February)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

· Singapore Industrial Production MoM (March)

· South Korea Business Confidence (April)

· EARNINGS: Hitachi, Daiwa Securities, JERA

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss the strategic importance of agriculture and sustainable forest management in strengthening wildfire risk prevention and resilience, Post-2027 CAP proposals: key design choices for income support, and the overall market situation, in particular following the invasion of Ukraine and the Iran War.

· The UK Parliament’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy takes evidence from former defense secretary and Nato secretary-general Lord George Robertson and foreign affairs adviser Fiona Hill, both of whom were involved in last year’s British strategic defense review.

· The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute publishes annual military expenditure data.

· Slovenia celebrates the Day of Uprising Against Occupation, commemorating when 1941 Slovenia was overrun by Nazi forces.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at joint Karlspreis and Helmut Kohl Foundation event "Blossoming Landscapes 2.0 – A New Agenda for Europe" organized by the International Charlemagne Prize of Aachen and Bundeskanzler Helmut Kohl Foundation in Aachen, Germany.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (April)

· Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

· Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (April)

· EARNINGS: Deutsche Bourse

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire is set to expire.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa celebrates Freedom Day, a national holiday and financial markets are closed.

· Today is Sierra Leon Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Togo, a national holiday.

· The 15th annual Connected Africa Summit, focusing on digital inclusion and innovation, gathers in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

· The Joint Bank for International Settlements, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and IMF Spillover Conference begins in Washington and runs through April 29th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Genting Malaysia will launch New York City's first live table games at Resorts World New York City, transforming the slots-only venue into a full-scale casino. The rollout includes 240 table games with more than 1,500 blackjack, craps, baccarat and roulette positions, alongside over 2,500 slot machines, with thousands more to be added later this year.

· Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presents the Spring Economic Statement to the Canadian parliament in Ottawa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI MoM (April)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook YoY (April)/25/S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (February)/ Home Price Index (February)/Home Price Index MoM (February)/CB Consumer Confidence (April)/Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/24)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Visa, Coca-Cola, T-Mobile, S&P Global, Starbucks, General Motors, UPS, Waste Management, Hilton, Robinhood, Vale (Brazil), Sysco, Fair Isaac, Kimberly Clark, Omnicom, Franklin Resources, Invesco, Seaboard, Caesars Entertainment, JetBlue, NCR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 25th Asean-EU ministerial meeting in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy. A press conference will follow the meeting.

· Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/Jobs/applications ratio (March)

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports YoY (March)/Balance of Trade (March)

· India Industrial Production YoY/Manufacturing Production YoY (March)

· EARNINGS: China Merchants Bank, Sinopec, Mitsubishi Electric, Fujitsu, China Pacific Insurance, TDK, Bank of Beijing, Tokyo Gas, NEC, TDK

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through April 29 in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy speaks at the JP Morgan UK Banks Asset Management & Liability Management Conference in London.

· Norges Bank Investment Management hosts its annual investment conference in Oslo, with speakers including World Bank President Ajay Banga and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

· Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an informal dinner and exchange of views with the Governing Council with EU Commissioner for Financial Services and the Savings and Investments Union Maria Luís Albuquerque in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Spain Unemployment Rate Q1/Retail Sales MoM (March)

· Italy Industrial Sales MoM (February)/ PPI MoM (March)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)/Jobseekers Total (March)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (April)/Interest Rate Decision

· Slovenia Retail Sales MoM (March)

· EARNINGS: Airbus, BP, Taylor Wimpey, WPP, Barclays

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM (February)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations peacekeeping operations.

· G7 Development Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. International Trade Commission will hold a preliminary conference on whether PTMEG imports from China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam are injuring U.S. producers, which could lead to duties on specialty chemicals.

· Bloomberg hosts its annual Bloomberg House in Miami, Florida.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

· The Bank of Canada meets to consider monetary policy. There will be a press conference in the afternoon with BoC Governor Tiff Macklem.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM (April)/ PPI MoM (March)/Interest Rate Decision

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/24)/ Building Permits Prel (February)/ Building Permits Prel (March)/ Durable Goods Orders MoM (March)/ Housing Starts (February)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Building Permits MoM Prel (February)/ Building Permits MoM Prel (March)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM MAR/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (March)/ Housing Starts MoM (March)/ Housing Starts MoM (February)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv (March)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv (March)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (March)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (March)/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (April/17)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, AbbVie, Qualcomm, ADP, General Dynamics, Canadian National Railway, Allstate, Ford, Old Dominion Freight, Yum Brands, Vulcan Materials, Banco Santander Brazil, CGI (CAN), Stanley Black & Decker, MGM Resorts, Penske Automotive, American Financial, Capital Power (CAN), Choice Properties (CAN), Blackstone Mortgage, Aflac, Humana, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, SoFi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit Vietnam. She is expected to give a major foreign policy speech whereby she will renew Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy" diplomatic policy initiative. The initiative is aimed to bring greater focus on economic security, including bolstering supply chains for critical goods and expanding energy security, according to the sources.

· Japan begins Golden Week, a series of national public holidays.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Inflation Rate YoY (March)/Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY Q1/CPI (March)/RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (March)

· New Zealand RBNZ Gov Breman Speech

· Singapore Import/Export Prices YoY (March)/PPI YoY (March)

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

· Thailand Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Japan Housing Starts YoY (March)/ Construction Orders YoY (March)

· India M3 Money Supply YoY (April/17)

· South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

· EARNINGS: CNOOC, Foxconn, Ping An Insurance, Peoples Insurance Company, China Northern Rare Earth, HKEX

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through April 30 in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council begins two days of meetings on monetary policy.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision Gareth Trunan speaks at the 23rd Annual Conference on Bulk Annuities in London.

· Slovakia Business Confidence (April)/Consumer Confidence (April)

· Spain Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (March)/ Economic Confidence Index (April)/ Participation Rate (March)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies YoY (March)/ Loans to Households YoY (March)/ M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Economic Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Selling Price Expectations (April)/ Services Sentiment (April)/ECB Buch Speech

· Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM (April)/ Bavaria CPI MoM (April)/ Brandenburg CPI MoM (April)/ Hesse CPI MoM (April)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM (April)/Saxony CPI MoM (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)

· Italy Business Confidence (April)/Consumer Confidence (April)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (April)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (March)/ Total Credit YoY (March)

· Great Britain Car Production YoY (March)

· France GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Household Consumption MoM (March)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Corporate Profits (February)/ Real Wage Growth YoY (February)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)

· EARNINGS: Novartis, Banco Santander, Total Energies, AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Lloyds Bank, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Mercedes Benz AG, Edessa, Adidas, Michelin, Porsche AG,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Blockchain DeFi & Web3 Summit meets in Lagos, Nigeria.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Antigua and Barbuda hold elections for their House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Net Payrolls (March)

· USA Core PCE Price Index MoM (March)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1/ Personal Income MoM (March)/ Personal Spending MoM (March)/ Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ Q1/ Employment Cost Benefits/Employment Cost Wages QoQ Q1/ Employment Cost Index QoQ Q1/ GDP Price Index QoQ Adv Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/25)/ PCE Price Index MoM (March)/ PCE Price Index Continuing Jobless Claims (April/18) /Core PCE Price Index YoY (March)/ GDP Sales QoQ Adv Q1/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (April/25)/PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q1/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ Adv Q1/ Real Personal Spending MoM (March)/ Chicago PMI (April)/ CB Leading Index MoM (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/24)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate /30/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/29)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Fiscal Balance (March)

· Canda GDP MoM (February)/ GDP MoM Prel (March)/ Average Weekly Earnings YoY (February)

· Chile Copper Production YoY (March)/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Manufacturing Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)

· Columbia Business Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production YoY (March)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

· EARNINGS: Apple, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, ConocoPhillips, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Altria, Southern, Royal Caribbean, Intercontinental Exchange, Cigna, L3Harris, Valero Energy, Carrier, Cardinal Health, AIG, Hershey, Xcel Energy, Martin Marietta Materials, Iron Mountain, LPL Financial, T. Rowe Price, Textron, Alliant Energy, Hyatt Hotels, Bombardier (CAN), Clorox, International Paper, Rivian Auto, AES, Molson Coors, Encompass Heath, Baxter International, LKQ, Eastman Chemical, Choice Hotels, NexGen Energy (CAN), CNO Financial, Federated Hermes, Air Canada, Weyerhaeuser, Fomento Economico Mexica

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro speaks at the Manila Overseas Press Club's DFA Night on April 30; she is expected to address ASEAN hosting, the Iran war, the West Philippine Sea dispute with China, and energy security. Worth tracking for Manila's posture going into the summit.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production MoM (March)/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)

· Japan Industrial Production MoM Prel (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

· Australia Import/Export Prices QoQ Q1/ Housing Credit MoM (March)/ Private Sector Credit MoM (March)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices MoM (April)

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS General PMI (April)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee/ KOF Leading Indicators (April)

· Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Unemployment Rate Prel Q1/ Business Confidence Q1

· Thailand New Car Sales YoY (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Consumption MoM (March)/ Private Investment MoM (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (February)

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment YoY Q1

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply YoY (March)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q1

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate YoY (April)

· EARNINGS: Samsung Electronics, ICBC, China Life Insurance, China Yangtze Power, Postal Savings Bank of China, Industrial Bank of China, Toyota Tsusho, China CITIC Bank, China Bank of Communications, Cosco Shipping, East Japan Railways, Kyocera, SAIC Motor, China Steel, China Securities, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, ANA, Japan Air, DBS, China State Shipbuilding

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank concludes two days of meetings on monetary policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde will then hold a press conference.

· The Bank of England meets to consider monetary policy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a presentation at the Danish Economic Society in Copenhagen, Denmark.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential David Baile will participate in a fireside chat at International Swaps and Derivatives Association 40th annual general meeting in Boston, Massachusetts.

· United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (April)/ MPC Meeting Minutes

· Hungary Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1

· France GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1/ Household Consumption MoM (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/PPI MoM (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel Q1

· Spain GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1/ Current Account (February)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)

· Turkey Balance of Trade Final (March)/Import/Export Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues Q1/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (March)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/24)

· Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)

· Germany Retail Sales MoM (March)/Import Prices MoM (March)/ Unemployed Persons (April)/ Unemployment Change (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1

· Italy GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)

· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate MoM (April)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1/ Inflation Rate YoY Flash (April)/ Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ CPI Flash (April)/ Deposit Facility Rate

· Greece PPI YoY (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (February)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q1/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/Current Account (March)

· EARNINGS: Schneider Electric, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Deutsche Post, Standard Chartered, Credit Agricole, BASF, Willis Towers Watson, Repsol, Volkswagen, MTU Aero Engines AG, Puma, Air France, ArcelorMittal, Rolls Royce

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI MoM (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Private Sector Credit YoY (March)

Friday, May 1, 2026

Global

· China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of May. There will be a press briefing with Ambassador Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, who will serve as head of the Security Council for the month.

· May Day public holiday observed in multiple countries, including China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany, and France; financial markets closed in several regions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A bipartisan U.S. senatorial delegation, led by Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), will visit China ahead of the planned May 14-15 summit between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

· King Charles and Queen Camilla begin a two-day visit, having completed their tour in the United States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Net Payrolls (March)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (April)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (April)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/01)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/01)

· Peru Inflation Rate MoM (April)

· EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, Canadian Pacific Railway, Colgate Palmolive, TransCanada, Imperial Oil (CAN), Dominion Resources, Estee Lauder, CBOE, Church & Dwight, Telus (CAN), Magna International (CAN), Moderna, AutoNation, Lear, Goodyear, Newell Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China is scheduled to implement a zero-tariff coverage for exports from 53 African countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Beijing.

· Today is Constitution Day in the Marshall Islands, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)/ Building Permits MoM (March)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ PPI QoQ Q1/ Commodity Prices YoY (April)

· South Korea Exports/Imports/YoY/Balance of Trade (April)

· Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Tokyo Core CPI YoY (April)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (April)/ Tokyo CPI YoY (April)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/25)

· Sri Lanka PPI YoY (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate MoM (April)

· India Bank Loan Growth YoY (April/17)/ Deposit Growth YoY (April/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/24)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate MoM (April)/ Wholesale Prices YoY (April)

· EARNINGS: Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Seiko Epson

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Much of Europe celebrates Labor Day. Most banks, financial markets, and the European Central Bank are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will present at the virtual National Agency Briefing on Monetary Policy in London.

· Russia GDP YoY (March)

· Switzerland Retail Sales MoM (March)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (March)/ Mortgage Approvals (March)/ Mortgage Lending (March)/ M4 Money Supply MoM (March)/ Net Lending to Individuals MoM (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ BoE Pill Speech

· Turkey Imports/Exports Prel/Balance of Trade Prel (April)

· EARNINGS: Linde, AON, Pearson, NatWest

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Private Bank Lending YoY (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kenya Inflation Rate YoY (April)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate YoY (April)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· South Africa Budget Balance (March)

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Niue – the self-governing Polynesian island country that is a part of New Zealand – holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Global

· OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Retail Sales YoY (April)/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers on May 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 4/24/26 Francis Kelly 4/24/26

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Fed Chair-Nominee Warsh Gets His Confirmation Hearing, The Prudential Regulators Present New Risk Guidelines, and SEC Chair Atkins Launches a New Podcast

April 20 - 24, 2026

The big event among regulators and Congress this week is Tuesday’s Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing to be the next Federal Reserve Board Chairman. Counting votes, it is clear that Warsh will almost certainly be approved by the Banking Committee and, eventually, by the full Senate. But that will not happen until the U.S. Justice Department drops its ongoing investigation of current Fed Chair Jay Powell

The investigation – which has been squashed twice by federal courts – has not gone away, and it appears the Justice Department intends to keep appealing those decisions in a hopeless effort to prove Powell lied under oath before the Senate Banking Committee on June 25, 2025, regarding renovations to the Federal Reserve headquarters. Every member of the committee has stated Powell did not perjure himself. And now we are in a situation where not only is Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), but also Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and House Financial Services Committee Chair Representative French Hill (R-Ark) are publicly urging the investigation be dropped.

Until the investigation goes away, Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) has announced he will block any confirmation votes for Warsh. And we believe at least half a dozen other senators are quietly supporting Tillis on this position.

Elsewhere on Capitol Hill this week, the House Financial Services Committee will be marking up four bills while the Senate Appropriations Committee will be holding a hearing with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the Treasury Department’s 2027 budget request.

Looking at key events from last week, we would note that the prudential regulators published revised model risk management guidance. The revised guidance aims to clarify that model risk management should be tailored to a banking organization's size, complexity, and model risk profile. The revised guidance also discusses considerations specific to vendor and other third-party products, including their validation.

Over at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Chairman Mike Selig vowed to investigate the spike in insider trading in prediction markets. He is also being pushed to investigate suspected insider trading in the oil and gas markets.

And at the SEC, Chair Paul Atkins has launched a new podcast called “Material Matters with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins.” The podcast, according to a SEC press release, aims to “…provide stakeholders and the investing public with exclusive interviews and insights around the agency’s policy and rulemaking agenda.” The first guests are SEC Commissioners Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda. Personally, we found it quite interesting and innovative to hear the regulators talking amongst themselves, unscripted and insightful

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, April 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh to serve as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

· Wednesday, April 22, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee holds a hearing on "A Review of the President's FY2027 Budget Request for the Department of the Treasury." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

· Thursday, April 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold an oversight hearing on the President’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will testify.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, April 21, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a markup hearing on four pieces of legislation (you can read the committee memorandum explaining what is being done HERE):

o H.R. 425, the Repealing Big Brother Overreach Act

o H.R. 941, the Small Lenders Exempt from New Data and Excessive Reporting (LENDER) Act

o H.R. 8286, the Protecting Americans’ Retirement Savings from Politics Act

o H.R. 8290, the Exchange Rate Accountability Act of 2026

· Wednesday, April 22, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance will hold a hearing entitled “Diversifying Risk: The Benefits of Reinsurance and Credit Risk Transfers.”

· Wednesday, April 22, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions will hold a hearing entitled “Evaluating the Effectiveness of U.S. Sanctions Programs.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, April 21, 2:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution Event, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Wednesday, April 22, 10:00 a.m. – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee at a hearing entitled "A Review of the President's FY2027 Budget Request for the Department of the Treasury."

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· Tuesday, April 21, 6:30 p.m. – HUD Secretary Scott Turner will participate in an event at the Heritage Foundation entitled “Belief in Action: Dr. Kevin Roberts & Secretary Scott Turner on Faith, Family, and Work.”

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, April 21, 8:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will give a speech at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, April 23, 2:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, April 21, 2:30 p.m. – SIFMA holds its Women’s Leadership Forum in Washington, D.C.

Tuesday, April 21 – 22 – The American Bankers Association holds its MDI Partnership Summit along with the National Bankers Association (NBA) in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, April 21, 12:00 p.m. – The he Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "Buy Now, Pay Later: Recent Developments and Implications for Mortgage Lending."

· Wednesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual event with European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone entitled “Implementing the Digital Euro Project.”

· Thursday, April 23, 12:00 p.m. The American Enterprise Institute will host an event entitled “The Future of Student Loans: A Conversation with Under Secretary of Education Nicholas Kent.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 4/20/26 Francis Kelly 4/20/26

The Global Week Ahead

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Rise as Ceasefire Set to Expire, EU Leaders Meet in Cyprus, and Fed Chair-Nominee Warsh Gets His Confirmation Hearing

April 19 - 26, 2026

Markets are gripped by rapidly shifting signals from Washington and Tehran over peace talks, with President Trump projecting a deal within days. However, President Trump ended the week telling reporters on Friday he expected a deal “in a day or two” and that his special envoys, Vice President J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were heading to Islamabad, Pakistan for a second round of talks. But this all abruptly was upended when the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship. This promptly led to Iranian threats to strike back and denials they were going to send a negotiating team to Pakistan. This is an extraordinarily fast-moving situation as the cease-fire is scheduled to end two days from now. The next steps all depend on whether Iran sends a delegation to Islamabad or not.

Meanwhile, EU leaders meet in Cyprus this week in what could be a pivotal session amid rising geopolitical crises, especially the Iran situation. The “informal” agenda includes discussing the Iranian situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine (Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to address the group), as well as progress of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). The MFF is a nearly €2 trillion budget proposal that aims to, according to the EU, “align resources with shared priorities (from competitiveness and innovation to defense, cohesion and external action) under a modernized, flexible and transparent structure.”

But the Iran crisis will dominate the discussions as energy prices spike in Europe. EU leaders are likely to push emergency energy measures. We would also note this will be the last EU meeting for outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who lost power last week after 16 years in power.

In Washington, the main event is the Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chair-nominee Kevin Warsh. Despite likely approval, the process could be stalled by the ongoing Justice Department investigation of current Chair Jay Powell and senators planned opposition until it concludes. As we have written in client notes, this could delay Warsh’s confirmation for months, directly impacting upcoming FOMC meetings in June and July.

Beyond Warsh’s confirmation, global markets are starting to focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting April 28–29, the European Central Bank interest rate meeting on April 29, and the Bank of England interest rate meeting on April 30.

This week’s global flash April PMIs are highly anticipated to gauge the economic impact of the Iran War. In the U.S., March existing home sales (Monday), April PPI and Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), March retail sales (Tuesday), and the key March PCE Index (Friday) are headline releases; Canada reports March CPI on Monday.

In Europe, markets will focus on Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Wednesday), UK labor data (Tuesday), and March inflation (Wednesday), plus major German and French economic surveys released throughout the week.

In Asia, big events include Japan’s March CPI (Friday), Taiwan’s export orders (Tuesday), and South Korea’s Consumer Sentiment (Thursday).

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· White House Special Envoys Stev Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran (TBD). On Tuesday, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to join them in the talks (Again, TBD).

· The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – was set to expire. Congress passed a short-term extension last week as they continue to battle out how to get a final agreement hammered out.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will make his first visits as leader to India and Vietnam through Friday. Lee, who is expected to be joined by a business delegation, will meet with his counterparts for talks, which are likely to focus on energy and supply chain cooperation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

· Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

· Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 20, 2026

Global

· The UN’s 2026 ECOSOC Forum on Financing for Development begins New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· An Indian delegation will be in Washington for trade talks with the U.S.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein interviews Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf at the Economic Club of Washington.

· Canada Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations.

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· EARNINGS: Alaska Airlines, Wintrust

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines and the U.S. are set to commence their annual weekslong war games. Japan will make its debut as an active participant in the exercises, after Tokyo and Manila's reciprocal access agreement came into effect last year.

· Mongolian President Khurelsuh Ukhnaa will visit Kazakhstan through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)/ FDI (YTD) (March)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (February)

· India Infrastructure Output (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to update parliament on the vetting failure of former British ambassador to Washington Lord Peter Mandelson and his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the keynote at the annual reception of Association of German Banks on the occasion of their 75th anniversary in Berlin, Germany.

· Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen speaks at a conference in Espoo, Finland.

· Germany PPI (March)

· Greece Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Italy Construction Output (February)

· Euro Area Construction Output (February)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (March)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (March)

· EARNINGS: M&C Saatchi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· In Israel, Yom Hazikaron, or Memorial Day, a commemoration for fallen soldiers and victims of militant attacks, begins.

· Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Mozambican President Daniel Chapo will visit China through April 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Global

· The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire at midnight.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

· UN Climate Week event kicks off in the coastal city of Yeosu, running until Saturday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be next chair of the Federal Reserve.

· The Bahamas will host the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP4) on Environmental Affairs of Latin America and the Caribbean in Nassau.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution Event, Washington, D.C.

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (March)/ Redbook (April/18)/ Business Inventories (February)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/17)

· Colombia Imports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

· EARNINGS: United Airlines, 3M, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, Danaher, Quest Diagnostics, Halliburton, CapitalOne, Interactive Brokers, Chubb, Annaly, RTX, Northrup Grumman

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC) is expected to convene its 22nd session in late April. The Council of Chairpersons was expected to meet in mid-April to set the agenda and dates. The session is expected to review a draft revision to the Bid Invitation and Bidding Law and draft revision to the Water Law, with additional bills also possible. While largely legislative rather than headline-grabbing, this is a key mechanism through which CCP policy priorities are formalized into law.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q1/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q1/ Inflation Rate Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/21)

· Taiwan Export Orders (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers are expected to unveil the fourth element of its security guarantees for Ukraine at this session, covering Defence reform, cyber and hybrid measures, demining, and arms control. The Council will also consider unblocking a €90 billion loan for Ukraine for 2026–2027 and discuss the 20th package of sanctions against Russia. Additional ministers will be discussing the crisis with Iran, and its impact on the broader region and Europe, the South Caucasus (including Georgia), and Sudan, with discussion expected on tightening pressure on Russia across all dimensions.

· There will be an informal video conference of EU Transport Ministers. They are expected to discuss the Iranian situation and its impact on the EU transport sector.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Ankara, Turkey for meetings with President Tayyip Erdoğan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, and Minister of National Defense General Yaşar Gûler.

· The UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee has invited Sir Olly Robbins, the top Foreign Office civil servant who was sacked last week, to give evidence at its meeting today. Robbins was the senior official who signed off on Peter Mandelson’s background check, clearing him to be named UK Ambassador to the United States – and covering up his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

· In the UK, the RMT union is due to begin the first of two 24-hour strikes on Tube lines over four-day working week proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks followed by Q&A at an event organized by La Razón in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at the International Economics Symposium in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher gives opening remarks at a conference on Ukraine in Vienna, Austria.

· Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge participates in a panel about decision-making psychology in Stockholm, Sweden.

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Average Earnings incl. & excl. Bonus/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

· Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

· Spain Balance of Trade (February)

· Slovenia PPI (March)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

· EARNINGS: Associated British Foods, British Land, Beiersdorf, Jupiter Fund Management, Thales, WR Berkley, Rio Tinto

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Leo XIV continues his African tour with a visit to Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/17)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/17)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

· Argentina Economic Activity (February)

· EARNINGS: Tesla, IBM, Boeing, AT&T, Boston Scientific, Philip Morris, CME Group, SCX, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, Moody’s, Raymond James

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The International Criminal Court is set to release its decision on whether the case of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte falls within its jurisdiction, after his defense team filed an appeal. Duterte is currently in detention in the Netherlands on charges related to crimes against humanity for his role in masterminding a bloody campaign against the illegal drug trade in his country.

· The TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium takes place in Santa Clara, California. The company will provide updates on its latest technological progress and breakthroughs, with a heavy focus on artificial intelligence. Of particular interest will be the Taiwanese chip titan's comments on the state of cutting-edge chip production processes, including 3-nanometer, 2-nm, A16, A14 and beyond.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (March)

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)

· India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of states through April 24 in Leftkosia, Cyprus. Leaders will first discuss the situation in Iran and how the EU can best address the war and its impact. They will also address the challenging geopolitical environment and provide political guidance on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028–2034. Key elements include:

Dinner discussions on April 23 beginning with a briefing from President Zelenskyy on Russia's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine.
Discussion of the conflict in Iran and the Middle East, including Europe's contribution to de-escalation, freedom of navigation, and the effects of high fossil fuel prices on European citizens and companies.
A working session on the morning of April 24 focused on the next MFF, including discussions on New Own Resources and the EU budget's contribution to the competitiveness agenda.
An informal working lunch with leaders from the Middle East region to discuss shared challenges and opportunities for cooperation.

· The Delphi Economic Forum XI begins in Delphi, Greece. Speakers include president of the European Council António Costa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will take part in a panel in honor of Nick Stern" organized by London School of Economics and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London, UK. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also is scheduled to speak.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a conversation "Banking reform in the EU – How should the EU balance banking reform, risk and competitiveness?" organized by Bruegel in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Chief Economist Philip R. Lane will give the keynote speech at a high-level ESRB workshop on European safe assets in Frankfurt, Germany. Later he will participate in a panel discussion at Pre-presidency Irish Financial Issues Conference organized by the Consulate General of Ireland, CFS at Goethe University, Hertie School Jacques Delors Centre and Frankfurt Chamber of Industry and Commerce in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a conversation with Nicolas Véron for Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual series and podcast "What now, Europe?".

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a panel discussion at EU finance conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is part of an FT fireside chat about private credit in London, England.

· Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks at the launch of the Gender Balance Index 2026, organized by OMFIF.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

· Euro Area Government Budget to GDP 2025/ Government Debt to GDP 2025/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (April)

· Poland Business Confidence (April)

· Russia Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

· EARNINGS: ABB, Aberdeen, Danone, L’Oreal, Nordea Bank

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 23, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it will hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

· G& Environmental Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombian President Gustavo Petro will meet with Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez in the Venezuelan city of Maracaibo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (March)/ PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/22)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Paraguay PPI (March)

· Warner Bros Discovery holds a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Paramount Skydance for $31 a share. If approved, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.

· EARNINGS: Nokia, Intel, Newmont, Dow, Blackstone, American Express, Huntington Bank, American Airlines, Lockheed Martin, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Verisign, Comcast, Keurig Dr Pepper, Freeport-McMoRan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Two of India's politically crucial states -- West Bengal and Tamil Nadu -- hold elections at a time when the country is grappling with a cooking gas shortage driven by supply chain disruptions owing to the Middle East conflict, an issue that is expected to weigh on voters' minds. While Tamil Nadu in India's south is going to the polls in a single stage, West Bengal in the country's east will hold its second and final phase on April 29.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q1

· Australia S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)

· India HSBC Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (March)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of the April 29-30 rate-setting meeting.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on central-bank independence in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Seim speaks in Umea, Sweden.

· European Union New Car Registrations (March)

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

· France S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

· Germany S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Wage Tracker Q1

· EARNINGS: BP, Dassault Systémes, Heineken, London Stock Exchange Group, Nokia, Orang, Renault, Sainsbury’s, Sanofi, WHSmith, Nestlé

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 24, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

· Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson speaks at the Empire Club of Canada.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)

· Mexico Economic Activity (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

· Chile PPI (March)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/24)

· Canada Budget Balance (February)

· EARNINGS: Proctor & Gamble, Schlumberger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Auto China Show, one of the world's largest auto shows, begins in Beijing. The event will spotlight China's emergence as a major EV player at a time when the Iran war has made alternatives to pricey gasoline more attractive. Thousands of exhibitors and visitors will descend on the venue for 10 days. Chinese EV makers will be looking to set themselves apart with new innovations, aiming to leave behind a bruising domestic price war and ramp up exports.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation Rate (March)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q1

· Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Philippines Business Confidence Q1/ Consumer Confidence Q1

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

· EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Greece for talks Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Athens, Greece.

· Russian Foreign Ministry holds its quarterly briefing in Moscow, Russia.

· Today is St. George’s Day celebrations, commemorating England’s patron saint.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks at the bank’s Annual General Meeting in Bern, Switzerland.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

· France Consumer Confidence (April)

· Spain PPI (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

· EARNINGS: Electrolux, Kuehn+Nagle, Mondi, Telia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The White House Correspondents Dinner will take place in Washington, D.C. President Trump is scheduled to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Anzac Day, commemorating the first major military action Australia and New Zealand took in World War I.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Freedom Day in Portugal, commemorating the end of political dictatorship.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Center for China & Globalization holds the 12th China Global Think Tank Innovation Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.
April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.
April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.
April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.
May 3 – 6 – The Milken Institute Global Conference is held in Beverly Hills, California.
May 10 – Lebanon is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections.
May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.
May 31 – Colombia holds presidential elections.

Francis Kelly 4/17/26 Francis Kelly 4/17/26

The Global Week Ahead

Moving Back to War in Iran, The World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings Begin, Israel and Lebanon To Hold Direct Talks, Implications of Hungary’s Election Earthquake, Canadian PM Carney Could Get a Parliamentary Majority, and Countless Central Bank Speeches This Week

April 12 - 19, 2026

It will be another tense week globally following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations this past Friday. While the ceasefire technically holds until April 21st, President Trump has ordered a blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and hostilities could erupt at any time. Oil prices have again spiked above $103 a barrel, and markets are bracing for new economic shocks.

The big questions we have are: 1) What happens if Chinese or Russian naval ships arrive to escort their commercial ships around the US naval ships, 2) What happens if any ships try to slip by the blockade – will the US Navy seize them or shell them?, and 3) Will the blockade trigger the Houthi’s in Yemen to engage in new attacks on the US Naval ships?

We would also note Israeli and Lebanese diplomats will be meeting in Washington on Monday on a potential ceasefire following weeks of intense Israeli attacks on Hezbollah forces. But most observers are not hopeful for a breakthrough, as Israel will not agree unless Hezbollah is completely expelled from Lebanon.

As the Iran War looms, the World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin today, with finance ministers and central bank governors convening for six days. The IMF will release its latest World Economic Outlook, and markets await any changes to forecasts.

On the sidelines, numerous speeches and panels will feature key central bankers like European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

Elsewhere, in European capitals this week, EU leaders will be analyzing the impact of Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party’s landslide win over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz Party after 16 years in power. will likely prove to help solidify and accelerate EU efforts for greater cohesion. The most obvious direct consequence is the release of sizeable EU financial and military aid to Ukraine, which had been blocked by Orbán.

Turning to North America, Canada holds elections in three legislative districts this week. Polls suggest Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is likely to secure at least two victories, potentially giving Carney a parliamentary majority and greater scope to align Canada’s policies more closely with Europe, both militarily and economically.

Aside from the World Bank and IMF meetings, markets will focus on the US PPI report on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, and industrial production on Thursday.

In Europe, the European Central Bank’s March meeting account and the UK’s February GDP numbers will be released on Tuesday.

In Asia, the major reports of the week are China’s Q1 GDP, released on Tuesday, and the March economic data, published on Thursday.

Finally, we would note that earnings season is kicking off this week. We expect a chorus of concerns from major companies about the economic impact of the Iran War and its potential impact on businesses across the board.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 12, 2026

Global

· Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel this week to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

· Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. There are 35 candidates running for president, and it is almost assuredly going to lead to a run-off election. Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit China through April 15th. resident Xi Jinping will meet with Sánchez, and Premier Li Qiang and NPC Standing Committee Chairman Zhao Leji will hold separate talks and meetings with him. This is Sánchez's fourth trip to China in four years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial resumes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 13, 2026

Global

· The World Bank/International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings begin in Washington, D.C. and run through April 18th.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (EU).

· The OPEC monthly oil market report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate and House of Representatives return to work after a two-week break. They will again try to find a deal on TSA paychecks and President Trump’s request for additional funding for the US military.

· The US House of Representatives potentially will consider expulsion votes or other disciplinary votes against four members this week: Representatives Sheila Chefilus-McCormick (D-FL), Cory Mills (R-FL), Tony Gonzales (R-TX), and Eric Swalwell (D-CA).

· President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump will host King Willem-Alexander and Queen Máxima of the Netherlands at the White House and then host a state dinner for them in the evening.

· Canada will hold three byelections that could result in a parliamentary majority for the ruling Liberal Party.

· Santiago, Chile hosts the Latin America Energy Summit through April 16th. The summit brings together regional energy companies, engineering firms, infrastructure project developers, construction companies, investors, and government officials to discuss opportunities in Latin America's evolving energy industry. The Summit takes place as Santiago also hosts the World Lithium Conference and the World Copper Conference.

· The Semafor World Economy Conference begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through April 17. More than 450 CEOs, US cabinet members, and foreign leaders will attend and speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States, Washington, D.C.

· Canada Building Permits (February)

· USA Existing Home Sales (March)/ Fed Miran Speech

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (March)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Peru Balance of Trade (February)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: Goldman Sachs, FirstBank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 101st Trust Companies Conference.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser participates in a fireside chat at the Money Marketeers of New York University

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

· India Inflation Rate (March)

· China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

· Kazakhstan GDP (March)

· Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Seoul.

· French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot will host Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide in Paris.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C. this week.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 4th ''Wake Up, Spain" symposium organized by El Español, Invertia, and D+I (Disruptores e Innovadores) in Madrid, Spain.

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at the PSE-BdF Conference on International Macroeconomics in Historical Perspective in Paris, France.

· Hungary Construction Output (February)

· Slovakia Construction Output (February)

· Turkey Current Account (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Poland Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Russia Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Leo XIV will visit Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

· The Africa Tourism Investment Conference begins in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on Libya sanctions. Afterwards, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· The IMF publishes its World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report.

· The International Energy Administration releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks at a Turning Point USA tour stop in Georgia.

· Finnish President Alexander Stubb will travel to Canada for meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks at the Strengthening America's Economy through Rural Investment: A Working Forum, Washington, D.C.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a panel before the Semafor World Economy 2026 conference in Washington, D.C.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ PPI (March)/ Redbook (April/11)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/10)

· Brazil Business Confidence (April)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (February)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Albertsons, Johnson & Johnson, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam President To Lam travels to China on the invitation of President Xi Jinping. This marks Lam's first state visit since he took the rare step of holding two of Hanoi's most powerful posts and, a week prior, became president.

· The Philippines' House of Representative’s Justice Committee resumes deliberations on the merits of the impeachment complaints lodged against Vice President Sara Duterte. Her team continues to question the proceedings, which began in February after a one-year Supreme Court prohibition.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (February)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

· India WPI Food Index (March)/ WPI Fuel (March)/ WPI Inflation (March)/ WPI Manufacturing (March)

· EARNINGS: Toho, J Front Retailing

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Alexus Grnikevich in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a fireside chat at the Bretton Woods Committee’s Spring Summit 2026 in Washington, DC.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane gives a lecture at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia. Later, he participates in the Macro/International Finance Lunch Roundtable at the University.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation at the 25th Forum Confcommercio in Rome, Italy.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat with Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Board Alan Taylor at Columbia University in New York.

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene takes part in a fireside chat during the IMF-World Bank week at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)

· Ireland Construction PMI (March)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (March)

· Romania Inflation Rate (March)

· Spain Inflation Rate (March)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Serbia Inflation Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: BMW, Kering, Publicis

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel and Lebanon will hold direct negotiations in Washington, D.C. The Israeli delegation will be led by Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the US, although Ron Dermer, an adviser to Netanyahu, is expected to play a prominent role behind the scenes. U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa is due to lead the effort on behalf of the Trump administration.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (March)/ Inflation Expectations (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (March)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UN Peacekeeping operations.

· The IMF publishes its fiscal monitor.

· IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing .

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on Consumer Compliance Supervision and Regulation at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) Just Economy Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision ice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks on bank regulation at the Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import Prices (March)/ Export Prices (March)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/10)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

· Brazil Retail Sales (February)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

· El Salvador PPI (March)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Progressive, PNC, M&T Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Canton Fair, one of China’s largest trade shows, opens. There will be exhibitors touting everything from vehicles and electronics to furniture and toys. This spring's expo, which runs until early May, comes as companies in China and around the world grapple with supply chain disruptions from the Iran war.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import Prices (March)/ Export Prices (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Japan Machinery Orders (February)

· India Unemployment Rate (March)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (February)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at The Economic Magic of Equal Opportunity for Women Conference in Washington, DC

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion entitled “Deglobalization and Fragmentation: Mid-Term Challenges for Central Banks” at the 2026 IIF Global Outlook Forum “Deciphering Risks, Defining Opportunities” in Washington,

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote address at the"20th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States" organized by The Program on International Financial Systems (PIFS) and Harvard Law School in Washington, DC.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC,

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at Semafor World Economy and separately at an Atlantic Council event in Washington, DC.

· Euro Area Industrial Production (February)

· Romania Industrial Production (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France Inflation Rate (March)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

· Poland Inflation Rate (March)

· Turkey Budget Balance (March)

· Greece Inflation Rate (March)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (February)/ Residential Property Prices (February)

· Sebia Building Permits (February)

· EARNINGS: Hermes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

· Israel Business Confidence (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Jordan Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Global

· G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Washington, DC.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the Washington Economic Festival: Global Macro Sessions, Washington, D.C.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote speech before the FHLBNY 2026 Member Symposium organized by the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York.

· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)

· USA Continuing Jobless Claims (April/04)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (April)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April)I/10/ Fed Miran Speech/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/16)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

· EARNINGS: Netflix, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, BNY, Travelers, Citizens Financial Corp., Abbott, Alcoa, Cohen & Steers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/11)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full Time Employment Chg. (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Part Time Employment Chg. (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

· China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)

· Sri Lanka PPI (February)

· EARNINGS: TSMC, Wipro, Infosys

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers in Lefkosia, Cyprus through April 17th.

· In the UK, the Covid-19 Inquiry report on vaccines and therapeutics will be published.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a panel at the Washington Economic Festival: Global Macro Sessions organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, DC. Later, he participates in an IMF Spring Meetings panel on "Keeping Macroeconomic Frameworks Fit for Purpose in a Shock-Prone World" in Washington, DC.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion at the New Frontiers in Banking and Capital Markets Conference in Milan, Italy

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Program on International Financial Systems and Harvard Law School, 20th Annual Symposium ‘building the financial system of the 21st century: an agenda for Europe and the United States’, Washington DC.

· European Central Bank Governing Council members Martin Kocher and Dimitar Radev speak at an Atlantic Council event in Washington, D.C.

· Euro Area CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Great Britain Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ GDP (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)/ SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Italy Inflation Rate (March)

· Serbia Current Account (February)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/10)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

· Belarus Industrial Production (March)

· EARNINGS: Bosch, Tesco, Icade, Viscofan, Pernod Ricard

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, April 17, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks about the economic outlook at the Auburn University Department of Economics David Kaserman Memorial Lecture, Auburn, Alabama.

· USA Fed Balance Sheet (April/15)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/17

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

· EARNINGS: Regions, Fifth Third Bank, Ally, Truist, Ericsson, State Street, Marsh & McLennan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Food Inflation (March)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (March)/ Non-Oil Exports (March)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· India Bank Loan Growth (March/31)/ Deposit Growth (March/31)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

· EARNINGS: HDFC, ICICI

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will chair the next meeting of the CIS Council of Foreign Ministers in Moscow, with Turkmenistan holding the CIS chairmanship for 2026. The ministers will exchange views on international and regional issues and discuss priority areas of CIS cooperation, including in the context of the organization's 35th anniversary. Decisions are expected on strengthening foreign policy coordination, expanding law enforcement cooperation, and granting CIS basic organization status to two Russian educational institutions.

· Following the CIS meeting, Foreign Minister Lavrov will travel to Antalya, Turkey to participate in the Fifth Antalya Diplomatic Forum at the invitation of Turkey's Foreign Minister. The forum is a high-profile multilateral gathering with broad attendance from Global South and NATO-adjacent states — exactly the audience Russia wants to address on Ukraine, Iran, and sanctions.

· Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez hosts Brazilian President Lula in Barcelona.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in "In conversation with Claudia Buch," organized by the Institute of International Finance in Washington, DC.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the Barclays breakfast roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Hungary Gross Wage (February)

· Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Slovakia Current Account (February)

· Greece Balance of Trade (February)

· Belarus GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Syria, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Global

· The World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – expires.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

· Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

· Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany, and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

Week of April 20 (To be confirmed – hearing has been rescheduled from April 9th) – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely that the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members have vowed to hold up the vote until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.
April 23 – The European Central Bank’s non-monetary policy meeting.
April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.
April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.
April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.
April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.
May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

Francis Kelly 4/10/26 Francis Kelly 4/10/26

The Morning Dispatch: “Trump’s Animus Against Nato Could Lead to Geopolitical Disaster”

By Franklin C Miller and Eric S. Edelman

April 7, 2026

My colleague at the Scowcroft Group (where I serve as a Senior Advisor), Frank Miller, along with Eric Edelman, wrote this important assessment. I thought it was important to share with our followers.

Miller served for three decades as a senior nuclear policy and arms control official in the Pentagon and on the National Security Council staff. He is a principal at the Scowcroft Group. Edelman was undersecretary of defense for policy (2005-2009) and has served as the co-chair for the congressionally mandated Commissions to review the National Defense Strategy in 2018 and 2024.

______________________________

Donald Trump does not understand NATO. Neither does he understand alliances, let alone alliance leadership. Nevertheless, based on animosities and grievances he has harbored in his ignorance for multiple decades, he appears disposed to allow the most successful political-military alliance in modern history to be destroyed. Vladimir Putin could not be happier, as this would represent one of his long-sought vengeful goals in retaliation for the Soviet Union's breakup. That would be a true tragedy for Europe and, indeed, for the United States—and it is even more the case because Trump's animus is based on a series of assumptions that do not bear scrutiny.

In brief, Trump appears to believe:

Member states of NATO have not paid their "bills" or "dues" or "NATO fees," reflecting an imperfect, to say the least, understanding of how NATO functions as an alliance and an organization.
NATO must follow America's lead even when not consulted about military action.
NATO is a "one-way street—we wil protect them, but they wil do nothing for us."
Joining in the military operations against Iran and clearing the Strait of Hormuz to end Iran's chokehold on Gulf energy supplies have become a "loyalty audit" of the alliance.

Al of the above are palpably false.

NATO does not have "member dues." Each individual nation both submits funds to the alliance's common activities and also contributes to the common defense by maintaining its own military forces. It is certainly true that since the end of the Cold War, many NATO states have been delinquent on both scores, and in fairness Trump is not the first president to complain that U.S. allies have not borne their share of the collective defense burden that comes in the form of national spending on defense. But things are changing, in large part due to Trump. At last year's NATO summit in The Hague, member states agreed to the goal of spending 5 percent of their GDP on defense (3.5 percent of defense on their armed forces and an additional 1.5 percent of GDP on critical infrastructure protection and investment in the European defense industrial base), leading Trump to pronounce this "a big win for Europe and for, actually, Western civilization." Trump either has forgotten this or is misrepresenting what occurred. (The United States, for the record, has not committed to raising its commitment of 3.5 percent to 5 percent.)

NATO, a collection of 32 independent and (mostly) democratic states, is not an American vassal. The alliance, founded in 1949 under American leadership, has throughout its nearly 80-year history always stressed collective action based upon consultation and coordination. Trump did not consult with NATO (or any of its member states collectively or individually) before attacking Iran. They were, therefore, under no obligation-moral or otherwise—to assist in his unilateral campaign. This stands in sharp contrast to NATO's collective response to the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001. Those attacks marked the only time that Article 5 has actually been invoked-and it was to defend the U.S., not Europe. Over the next 20 years, hundreds of NATO troops died in the Afghanistan war, including nearly 500 Britons, 159 Canadians, 90 French, 62 Germans, 53 Italians, and 4 Danes. (On a per capita basis, British losses were almost as large as those of the U.S., and the Danish losses actually slightly exceeded those of their American comrades in arms.) Trump's allegation that the allies "have not been there for us" traduces the memory of these brave NATO soldiers.

The suggestion, rampant in parts of the administration, that NATO is a "gift" the United States has bestowed on Europe is bad history and even worse geopolitics. In both 1917 and 1941, the United States found itself joining wars ti sought to avoid but nevertheless was compelled to enter. After the end of World War Il, a bipartisan consensus united Democrats and Republicans in the view that, to prevent a third recurrence, the United States must be involved in European affairs to deter and, if necessary, stop a hostile foreign power from threatening American interests by dominating the European landmass. NATO was and is the result. The threat in 1949 was an aggressive Soviet Union bent on imposing hegemony over Western Europe; today the threat is a hegemonic Russia led by a cold-eyed dictator seeking to reimpose Russia's control over its neighbors.

Then and now, this poses a threat to America's vital national security interests. Our role in NATO not only stabilizes the continent but has brought an unprecedented eight decades of relative peace to an area that routinely fel into general wars every 10 to 20 years.*

Additionally, the U.S. role in NATO has provided us with a network of military bases across Europe, which allows the projection of American military power far from our shores— proving that forward defense begins with forward basing. It has also granted Washington unprecedented influence in shaping events in Europe, a capability it lacked until NATO's creation.

The president's insistence that NATO must involve itself in the war against Iran also ignores the fact that in 1949, when the NATO treaty was being drafted, largely at U.S. insistence, the treaty limited the obligation of a common defense to an attack on the "territory of Europe or North America." This was to avoid the US.. being dragged into wars sparked by the push for decolonization in the 1950s and the fact that France was already embroiled in Indochina, and Britain, Portugal, the Netherlands, and others had colonial dependencies throughout the Third World.

There have been frequent crises in the alliance triggered by recriminations that allies have expected support from other NATO partners in conflicts that they have not received. The 1956 Suez crisis is instructive here. Britain and France colluded with Israel to invade Egypt without telling the United States, even though the U.S. arguably shared an interest in not having the Suez Canal nationalized by Gamal Abdel Nasser. The result was a sharp break by the U.S. with its two closest allies, ending when the Eisenhower administration forced them ot withdraw (thereby foreclosing their role as Middle Eastern powers). In today's circumstances, the shoe is on the other foot. Trump acted without consulting allies in launching the current war with Iran. Our European NATO allies clearly have an interest in degrading Iran's military capabilities and perhaps an even greater interest than the U.S. in opening the Strait of Hormuz because they are more dependent on energy supplies from the Gulf than the US.. But it takes a certain amount of gall to ask our allies to undertake a complex and risky military mission (clearing the Strait of Hormuz) which, in current circumstances, the U.S. Navy is unwilling to undertake because of the high level of risk to warships transiting a narrow body of water that Iran retains the ability to turn into a shooting gallery.

The president's angry comment last week that U.S. membership in NATO is "beyond reconsideration" marks one of his strongest rebukes of the alliance to date: "I would say [it's] beyond reconsideration. . Ialways knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way." Actually, Putin knows that NATO collectively fields more than 3.5 million active personnel, with combined defense spending representing over half of the global total. The alliance holds a massive conventional advantage over potential rivals, with roughly 20,375 aircraft, 2,818 naval vessels, and 12,299 main battle tanks. He knows it poses a massive impediment to his imperial desires, and it is a main reason he is trying so assiduously to destroy it politically.

fI Trump remains determined, to America's and Europe's complete and utter detriment, to turn his anger and emotion into action, fi he truly intends to withdraw from or downgrade U.S. participation in NATO, he will thankfully run into several legal roadblocks. In December 2023, Congress approved Section 1250A of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which specifically requires either the advice and consent of the Senate (requiring a two-thirds vote) or an act of Congress before the president can unilaterally withdraw the United States from the alliance. Both conveniently and inconveniently (depending on one's point of view), the co-sponsor of the provision was none other than Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who had championed the requirement since 2020). It is not clear if the legal provision infringes on the president's treaty-making powers, but it is safe to say that fi Trump attempted to withdraw in defiance of the law, the issue would be tied up in litigation for some time.

Furthermore, fi the president were to attempt to neuter NATO by withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe without formally withdrawing from NATO, he would be stymied by a provision in the 2026 NDAA co-authored by the chairs of the respective Defense and Armed Services Committees that says that the U.S. must maintain at least 76,000 troops in Europe. fI the end strength falls below that number for more than 45 days, the secretary of defense must certify to Congress that the troop movements are in the national security interest of the United States and were executed in consultation with NATO.

Of course, the current administration has not distinguished itself for scrupulous adherence to the rule of law, so it is conceivable that Trump, despite the impediments created by Congress, might attempt to create a fait accompli by simply announcing the U.S. was withdrawing and daring anyone to stop him. This would constitute an act of recklessness virtually without parallel in the postwar history of the United States. In a world marked by increased and intensifying cooperation among America's adversaries-Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea-wantonly destroying the alliance that, with al of its flaws and controversies, provided the basis for deterring communist aggression in Europe and ultimately for winning the Cold War, would divide the US.. from its most importantpartners and make the world safe for authoritarian aggression including potentially war on the Korean peninsula, conflict in Europe in Moldova, along the Suwalki Gap or against Estonia and Finland and, of course, the dangers that lurk in the Indo-Pacific over the future of Taiwan.

Nations are clearly capable of such acts of self-inflicted damage. Others have done it. In the hands of the current national leadership, one can only hope that Otto von Bismarck's adage that "God has a special providence for drunks, small children, and the United States of America" still holds true.

Francis Kelly 4/6/26 Francis Kelly 4/6/26

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

SEC Prepares To Release Quarterly Reporting Reform, Congress Gets Worried About Prediction Markets, and Treasury Focuses on Insurance Industry’s Investments in Private Credit

April 6 -10, 2026

We hope you had a great Easter weekend. Washington is relatively quiet this week as Congress remains out on break. But the calm will be short-lived as the coming weeks will be extremely busy.

This week, SEC Chair Paul Atkins is speaking at two events – one at Vanderbilt University in Nashville and the second in Miami at the Texas Stock Exchange event with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Atkins and the SEC are preparing to release a proposed reform that would allow publicly traded companies to stop issuing quarterly reports and switch to semi-annual reports. There is already significant pushback from major Wall Street firms, including BlackRock, Citadel, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price. No specific date has been set for the proposal's release, but it is expected sometime in April.

Turning to Congress, House Financial Services Chair French Hill said he expects to “bring out a series of reforms in the House” soon that deal with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Chair Hill has not detailed exactly what the exact proposals will be, but we are aware that there have been a series of coordination meetings with the White House to work out details.

Congress is also beginning to focus on the prediction markets. A number of Congressional offices are now banning their staff from using them, and growing chatter suggests legislation to regulate them is likely on the way. Bipartisan concern mushroomed in recent weeks after unusual trading was detected as the U.S. war with Iran was coming, suggesting insider activity.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicated last week that it will move aggressively to root out insider trading in predictive markets. But the CFTC is also moving aggressively to fight state regulation of prediction markets, filing lawsuits recently against Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona to block their efforts to implement their own regulatory and enforcement measures.

Also, last week, the Department of Labor finally unveiled a proposed rule allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private markets, crypto, private equity, and real estate. The proposal comes seven months after President Trump signed an executive order directing regulators to draw up the proposal.

We would also note that the U.S. Treasury Department announced late last week they will convene a series of “conversations” with domestic and international insurance regulators focused on recent developments in private credit markets. No exact dates for the meetings have been released yet, but they are expected to commence later this month.

Finally, next week is going to be extremely busy here in Washington with the Spring IMF/World Bank meetings. Finance ministers and central banks and a good number of financial regulators will descend on the Capitol for innumerable meetings and side-bar discussions. In particular, we will be watching the release of Chapter 2 of the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report, which assesses the growing role of nonbank investors in emerging market finance.

Additionally, Federal Reserve Board Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will have his confirmation hearing in the Senate Banking Committee on April 16th. But his final confirmation will be blocked by a number of senators who have vowed to hold it up until the criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jay Powell is dropped. A federal judge this past Friday again rejected the Department of Justice’s effort to revive subpoenas of the Federal Reserve as part of the investigation, effectively rendering the effort moot.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week.‍ ‍Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the Easter/Passover holiday this week.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is out of session for the Easter/Passover holiday this week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, April 7, 5:50 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market at the University of Detroit Mercy College of Business Administration Charlton Center for Responsible Investing Speaker Series, Detroit, Michigan.

· Tuesday, April 7, 12:35 p.m. -- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated conversation and Q&A on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, April 6, 3:30 p.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at Vanderbilt University and the Blockchain Association’s Inaugural Digital Assets and Emerging Technology Policy Summit in Nashville, Tennessee.

· Tuesday, April 7, 11:00 a.m. – SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will deliver keynote remarks alongside Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Citadel Securities President Jim Esposito, and Texas Stock Exchange Founder and CEO Jim Lee at an event hosted by the Texas Stock Exchange in Miami, Florida.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, April 7, 1:00 p.m. – The FDIC Board of Directors holds an open meeting. The agenda items include

o Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: GENIUS Act Requirements and Standards for FDIC-Supervised Permitted Payment Stablecoin Issuers and Insured Depository Institutions.

o Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism Programs.

o Final Rule: Prohibition on Use of Reputation Risk by Regulators.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Wednesday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – the NCUA Board will hold a meeting. The agenda items include:

o Brokered & Reciprocal Deposits

o NCUA’s Deregulation Project

o 2026-2030 Strategic Plan

o 2026 Annual Performance Plan

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet. The agenda includes:

o Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System
Condition and Performance

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Wednesday, April 8, 10:00 a.m. – The FSIC Board will meet. The agenda includes:

o The Quarterly FCSIC Financial Reports

o Quarterly Report on Insured Obligations

o Quarterly Report on Annual Performance Plan

o Annual Report on Investment Portfolio

In Closed Session, the Board will consider:

o The Quarterly Report on Insurance Risk

o Presentation of 2025 Audit Results

o Executive Session of the FCSIC Board Audit Committee with the External Auditor

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Tuesday, April 7, 11:00 a.m. – World Bank Group President Ajay Bangaspeaks at an Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center event on the World Bank’s jobs agenda.

· Thursday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the spring meetings curtain-raiser speech in advance of the Spring IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, April 7, 10:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance hosts the launch of Chapter 2 of the International Monetary Fund April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report, which assesses the growing role of nonbank investors in emerging market finance.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, April 7, 5:00 p.m. – Georgetown University holds a Global Policy Lecture with Paschal Donohoe, Managing Director and Chief Knowledge Officer at the World Bank (and former Irish Finance Minister). The lecture is entitled “"policy reforms that support job creation, unlock private investment, and drive economic growth."

· Wednesday, April 8, 3:30 p.m. – The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget hosts an event entitled “Boomerang: Wealth, Retirement, and the Generational Divide.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 4/6/26 Francis Kelly 4/6/26

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Facing Trump’s Latest Deadline, Taiwan’s Opposition Leader Travels to Beijing for Meetings, Peru and Hungary Hold Elections, and Markets Brace For The First Economic Reports Reflecting the Impact

April 5 - 12, 2026

We hope you had a peaceful Passover or Easter holiday. The geopolitical week ahead will again be dominated by the escalating war in Iran. On Monday morning, the latest deadline President Trump gave Iranian leaders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or, according to a profane Truth Social post, Iran will face massive bombings “and complete destruction” of all Iranian electrical power plants, bridges, and other civilian infrastructure.

President Trump suggested in a press interview Sunday that his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are working through back channels to find a peaceful solution. And he extended – again – the deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

As we said, the Iran situation will dominate global markets' attention, but there is an interesting event taking place this week in China. Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party (KMT) opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, will be traveling to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese leaders. Cheng is going at the invitation of President Xi and is considered a high-stakes gambit. But it could also lead to further meetings between senior KMT officials and Beijing to de-escalate tensions between Taiwan and China. She makes the trip as the KMT continue to stall legislation in parliament funding an additional $40 billion in defense spending.

Two major elections are taking place this week, in Hungary and Peru. Hungary's parliamentary elections on Sunday are shaping up to be a difficult battle for 16-year incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Polls suggest the race is neck and neck between Orbán's Fidesz Party and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party. Orbán, a close ally of both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, asked President Trump to campaign for him this week. However, with Trump preoccupied by the Iran conflict, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to travel to Budapest to meet with Orbán.

In Peru, a record 35 candidates are running for president. The latest polls suggest conservative Keiko Fujimori — running for president for the fourth time — holds the lead, though a runoff is almost certain given the size of the field. The elections come after a prolonged period of political instability. Former President Pedro Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress in December 2022 and was subsequently impeached. His Vice President, Dina Boluarte, assumed the presidency but was removed by Congress in October 2025 for "moral incapacity." She was succeeded by the President of Congress, José Jeri, who became the country's seventh president in nine years — only to be removed in February 2026 after it emerged that he had held undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman under government investigation. Jeri was replaced by José María Balcázar, then President of Congress, who assumed the interim presidency — the eighth in nine years — to oversee the transition to these elections.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be looking at the U.S. March CPI on Friday. That report is expected to kick off a series of reports showing the negative impact of the Iran War on the global economy.

Also on the U.S. calendar this week: the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the March ISM Services report (Monday), the February PCE (Thursday), and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Friday).

In Europe, the European Central Bank's Governing Council will convene for a retreat on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the economic outlook. Germany also releases trade and industrial production figures this week.

In Asia, China releases its March PPI and CPI reports on Friday. Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Survey on Wednesday, Consumer Confidence on Thursday, and PPI on Friday. The Bank of Korea meets on interest rates — with no change expected — and Taiwan reports CPI on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Global

· Today is Easter Sunday.

· Eight Opec+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — meet to decide on their output policy for May.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australia’s Daylight Savings Ends.

· Kyoto, Japan holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

Monday, April 6, 2026

Global

· The G-24 meeting is being held in advance of the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to comply with his demand for them to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is today (10:05 a.m. EST). Trump will then hold a press conference with US military leaders at 1:00 p.m.

· The US Congress is out of session this week for the Easter holiday.

· Chilean President Jose Antonio Kast visits Argentina to meet with President Javier Milei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· USA ISM Services PMI (March)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam's new National Assembly members, elected in March for five-year terms, start their first legislative session. The rubber-stamp parliament will vote on the country's top leaders, including president and prime minister, in addition to debating laws.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· AMRO is set to release its annual regional economic outlook, offering an assessment of long-term growth trends across Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and China. The reports are expected to underscore the impact of rising uncertainty in global trade and heightened geopolitical tensions.

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Most European governments are closed in observance of Easter Monday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· It is Easter Monday in Europe. Most financial markets and banks are closed as is the European Central Bank.

· Spain Unemployment Change (March)

· Serbia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

· Jordan PPI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Republic of Burundi celebrates President Ntaryamira Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market at the University of Detroit Mercy College of Business Administration Charlton Center for Responsible Investing Speaker Series, Detroit, Michigan.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ Redbook (April/04)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (April)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations/Consumer Credit Change (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/03)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (March)

· Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· EARNINGS: Levis, Skillsoft, XCEL Brands, Exxon Q1 preview

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Finance ministry and central bank officials from the 11 ASEAN member states will meet in Manila, the Philippines through Friday to discuss financial services integration, regulatory cooperation and capital market development.

· Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT), makes a closely watched visit to China. She is expected to meet President Xi during her stay through Sunday, which would mark the first engagement between the sitting leaders of the Communist Party and KMT in a decade. Beijing refuses to talk with the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party administration in Taiwan, which sees Cheng's visit as part of an effort to undercut it and undermine defense cooperation with the U.S.

· The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is set to release its annual survey of Southeast Asian attitudes on regional strategic developments and issues impacting members of the ASEAN bloc. The report, done in January and February before the Iran war, covers topics such as the South China Sea, rising protectionism and nationalism, as well as U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump.

· SmartTech Asia, an expo focused on AI, digital payments and smart identity solutions, is held in Mumbai through April 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)

· Japan Household Spending (February)/ Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)/ Household Spending (February)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Budget Balance (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (March)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Ukrainian Parliament starts the voting process on reforms required to secure external financing. The final vote is expected on Wednesday.

· UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow to discuss her candidacy for the UN Secretary General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council attends a retreat hosted by the Banque of France through Wednesday, April 8th.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)

· Spain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Italy S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· France S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Germany S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Greece Balance of Trade (February)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· GITEX AFRICA, Africa’s flagship technology and innovation summit, takes place in Marrakech and runs through April 9.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Vice President JD Vance starts a two-day visit, meeting Viktor Orbán and his officials ahead of voting in what is seen as the prime minister’s toughest election contest since 2010.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets with President Trump in Washington through April 12th. Rutte comes after renewed threats by President Trump to withdraw from NATO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gives keynote remarks and speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce in St. George, Utah.

· Chile Inflation Rate (March)

· US Federal Reserve FMOC Minutes

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/03)/ Used Car Prices (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks & Gasoline Change (April/03)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (March)

· EARNINGS: Delta Airlines, Richardson Electronics, Applied Blockchain

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Touch Taiwan, one of Taiwan's biggest industry gatherings of the first half of the year, kicks off in Taipei with a focus on smart displays, advanced manufacturing, industrial materials, green technology and more. Exhibitors include Delta Electronics, Innolux, Merck and Corning.

· The QS China Summit is held in Shenzhen, China through April 9. The Summit is considered a premier forum for academics, industry experts, and decision-makers on the future of higher education in China. It's a niche but well-attended event drawing university and corporate leaders.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (February)

· Japan Current Account (February)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (March/31)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts the Council of Heads of Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation.

· In the UK, resident doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association, begin six days of strike action after rejecting the government’s pay offer.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Factory Orders (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

· Romania Retail Sales (February)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

· Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

· France Current Account (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (March)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)

· EARNINGS: Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Angola Inflation Rate (March)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).

· International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the spring meetings curtain-raiser speech in advance of the Spring IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will give a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation in Washington, D.C.

· Canada’s Liberal Party’s biennial convention begins in Montreal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (February)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (March)/ Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Core PCE Price Index (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Personal Income (February)/ Personal Spending (February)/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/04)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/08)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

· Argentina Industrial Production (February)

· Colombia PPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Blackberry, ClearSign, WD-40 Company, Constellation Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines celebrates the Day of Valor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/04)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (February)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

· EARNINGS: Fast Retailing, Seven & I, Tata Consultancy Services

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day official visit, including a meeting with Pope Leo XIV.

· Today is Kosovo Constitution Day, a national holiday.

· The Politico European Pulse Forum begins in Barcelona, Spain, and runs through April 10th. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, European Commission Executive Vice President for Competition Teresa Ribera, along with a number of other EU and Spanish government officials and CEOs will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Olaf Sleijpen gives a keynote speech at the DNB pension seminar in Amsterdam.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before a European Parliament economic committee in his capacity as chair of the Financial Stability Board.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (March)

· Romania Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

· Spain Industrial Production (February)

· Greece Industrial Production (February)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The WiT Africa Conference, which is focused on the Asian travel industry in Africa, kicks off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 10, 2026

Global

· The 2026 Bilderberg Meeting takes place outside of Washington, D.C., through April 12th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Court of International Trade to consider the legality of President Donald Trump’s latest round of global tariffs, in lawsuits filed by 24 states and two small businesses.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Mexico Industrial Production (February)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (March)/ Participation Rate (March)/ Average Hourly Wages (March)

· USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Factory Orders (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Asia Development Bank (ADB) is set to release its annual regional economic outlook for Asia.

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

· Japan Bank Lending (March)/ PPI (March)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

· China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Sales (March)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· India Bank Loan Growth (March/20)/ Deposit Growth (March/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

· Kazakhstan PPI (March)/ GDP (March)

· Earnings: Yaskawa Electric

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at an event entitled "Economía y Territorio: Claves para un desarrollo inclusivo" organised by Cámara Oficial de Comercio, Industria y Servicios de Soria in Madrid, Spain.

· Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

· Turkey Industrial Production (February)

· Italy Industrial Production (February)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: Sodexo

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Djibouti holds its presidential elections. incumbent president Ismaïl Omar Guelleh who won a fifth term in 2021, has been president since 1999. Originally ineligible for a sixth term due to the age limit of 75 that Guelleh imposed as part of the reforms, Djibouti passed a constitutional amendment in 2025 that lifted age limits, allowing him to run again.

· The 9th Indian Ocean Conference begins in Mauritius and runs through April 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Global

· The U.S. temporary license for seaborne Russian oil sales is set to expire.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 12, 2026

Global

· Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

· Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. There are 35 candidates running for president an almost assuredly will lead to a run-off election. Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Benin holds Presidential elections. The ruling coalition and Romuald Wadagni, current minister of state for Finance and Cooperation and Talon’s designated successor, are likely to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

April 13 – 19 – The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings are to be held in Washington, D.C., bringing together finance ministers, central bank governors, and other officials from around the world.
Week of April 13 – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members of the committee have vowed to hold up the confirmation until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.
May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Global Week Ahead

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Africa

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U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Facing Trump’s Latest Deadline, Taiwan’s Opposition Leader Travels to Beijing for Meetings, Peru and Hungary Hold Elections, and Markets Brace For The First Economic Reports Reflecting the Impact

April 5 - 12, 2026

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