Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 10/27/25 Francis Kelly 10/27/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Start of Week 5 of the Government Shutdown, President Trump has a New CFTC Chair Nominee, and, Aside From That, It’s Going to Be a Pretty Quiet Week

October 27 - 31, 2025

The Federal Government is entering its 5th week of being shut down. There is little movement in Congress that we can discern to figure out how to get a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government and get the governmental engine running again.

At this point, we see only three key dates that could serve as a trigger for Congress to begin moving toward a deal. They are:

October 24 – This past Friday marked the first full paycheck date that federal employees (except military) will miss. This includes TSA Agents at airports and air traffic controllers (NOTE: We have been traveling in the last week and asking TSA Agents their thoughts, and it is clear we will soon start seeing them leaving their jobs for anything that gives them a paycheck – meaning, we will see significant slowdowns at airports).
November 1 – Likely early/mid next week, Open Enrollment for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will begin, and it will show increasing annual insurance costs. Meaning, voters may become more focused and vocal on the issue Congressional Democrats are trying to force into the CR.
Late November – The House-passed Continuing Resolution expires on Nov. 21 (the Friday before Thanksgiving), and the fact that TSA workers will have missed more than a month of pay will likely result in departures of staff, causing significant delays at airports just before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Until then, there is not much going on with U.S. financial regulators. We would note that Travis Hill, the Acting Chair of the FDIC, will get his confirmation hearing this coming Friday. But only if the Senate Banking Committee holds the hearing. Last week, the Banking Committee was scheduled to hold an important hearing bringing together all the prudential regulators to talk about potential regulatory reform, but because of the shutdown, the hearing was cancelled.

Also, we would note that President Trump has nominated Mike Selig to the next Chair of the CFTC. Selig is currently the chief counsel for the Securities and Exchange Commission’s crypto task force in addition to advising SEC Chair Paul Atkins. He would replace Brian Quintenz as the nominee (as Quintenz’s nomination was somewhat mysteriously pulled by the White House just as he was about to get his confirmation hearing in the Senate Agriculture Committee).

Below are the few events we could find scheduled for the week ahead. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Thursday, October 30, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a confirmation hearing to consider the nominations of the following individuals: Joseph Gormley to be President, Government National Mortgage Association, Department of Housing and Urban Development; Francis Cassidy to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development; Paul Hollis, to be Director of the Mint, Department of Treasury; Bryce McFerran, to be First Vice President, Export-Import Bank of the United States; and Travis Hill, to be Chairperson of the Board of Directors, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

House of Representatives

· The House remains out of session until the Senate reaches a compromise on the federal budget continuing resolution.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday & Wednesday, October 28 – 29 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

· Thursday, October 30, 9:55 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a pre-recorded speech at the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Outreach Meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Tuesday, October 28, 3:20 p.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will discuss agency priorities and its influence on the future of banking and financial innovation at the Money 20/20 USA Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday & Wednesday, October 28 & 29 – SIFMA holds its National Conference on the Securities Industry at New York Law School.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, October 27, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “What’s up with stablecoins after the GENIUS Act?”

· Wednesday & Thursday, October 29 - 30 – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds its 14th annual Housing Center Conference in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/27/25 Francis Kelly 10/27/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Travels to Asia for the APEC Leaders Meeting and the ASEAN Summit, Trump Will Meet with Japan’s PM Takaichi and China’s Xi Seeking Trade Deals, and it is a Big Week for US, EU, Japan, and Canada Central Banks

October 26 - November 2, 2025

Geopolitics and global markets will be keenly focused on Asia this week. President Donald Trump travels to Malaysia this weekend at attend the APEC Leaders meeting. While there, the President is presiding over the signing of a peace deal he helped broker between Cambodia and Thailand and then working to hammer out trade deals with Malaysia, Vietnam, as well Cambodia and Thailand.

From there, President Trump travels to Japan – his fourth presidential trip there – to meet with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Again, the President is hoping to hammer out a framework for a trade deal. The major sticking point between the US and Japan is whether Prime Minister Takaichi will hold by a pledge her predecessor made of giving $550 billion to the US to fund unspecified projects.

From there, Trump travels to Gyeongju, South Korea for the ASEAN Leaders Summit and a much-anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese officials to iron out a “framework” of an agreement (but not an overarching deal) in advance of the Trump-Xi meeting.

Bessent reportedly finalized a deal on TikTok and may have gotten an extension of rare earth sales to the US following China’s recent clampdown on sales globally.

Finally, we would note Trump is expected to meet with South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit to work further on a US-South Korea trade deal.

Here in Washington, the federal government shutdown is going into its 5th week. We would note that this past Friday, air traffic controllers, TSA Agents, and other key government workers experienced their first full paycheck not arriving. As we get closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, we believe pressure will grow on Congress to hammer out some sort of deal to reopen the government.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, this is going to be a big week for central banks. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meet this week on interest rates. Markets are watching and listening not only for any rate moves but for assessments on how the trade wars might be impacting the longer-term inflation outlook globally.

This week is also a big week for corporate earnings with Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Airbus, Boeing and number of large cap companies reporting.

With the federal government shutdown still in place, there will not be much other major economic reports in the US (Q3 GDP was scheduled to be reported). We will get the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report on Tuesday.

In Europe, we will get October CPIs and Q3 GDP reports from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, along with the PCE report, plus consumer confidence reports from Germany and Italy and the greater Eurozone on Thursday.

In Asia, China releases October PMIs on Friday along with September retail sales. Japan releases the Tokyo CPI on Thursday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia. Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN’s 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summertime – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 27, 2025

Global

· Vietnam hosts the United Nations’ global convention on cybercrime.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will make an official visit to Japan through Wednesday. While there, he will hold an official summit with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where Trump hopes to wrap up a US-Japan trade deal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Beijing Financial Forum begins and runs through Friday. More than 400 delegates from 30 countries are expected to attend. People's Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng and top securities regulator Wu Qing are reportedly due to speak.

· North Korea's top diplomat Choe Son Hui visits Moscow for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)/ FDI (YTD) (September)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock holds a fireside chat at the ABE annual dinner in Sydney, Australia.

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet in Luxembourg.

· NATO conducts annual nuclear exercise Steadfast Noon.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at a joint ECB and EUI banking governance high-level seminar "Board of the Future" in Florence, Italy. ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen also will speak.

· Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Participation Rate (September)

· Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ Loans to Companies (September)/ Loans to Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)/ ECB Tuominen Speech

· Slovenia Business Confidence (October)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

· Greece Total Credit (September)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)/ BoE Oakes Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Future Investment Initiative, an annual investment event organized by the FII Institute, a non-profit organization run by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, begins in Riyadh.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates today and Wednesday. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (September)

· USA Redbook (October/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/24)/ House Price Index (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· India Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula President von der Leyen will travel to Stockholm to participate in a meeting with the Nordic Leaders and the SG of the Nordic Council of Ministers. She will meet with Andreas Norlén, Speaker of the Riksdag and then deliver a speech at the 77th session of the Nordic Council.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Union New Car Registrations (September)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

· Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tanzania holds general elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The suspension of increased US tariffs on Mexico ends.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference in the afternoon.

· US MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/24)/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/24)/ Decision/Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)

· Brazil Bank Lending (September)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

· Colombia Business Confidence (September)

· EARNINGS: Boeing, Alphabet, Meta

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Russia-Venezuela Business Forum takes place in Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ US President Trump-China President Xi Meeting

· Australia Inflation Rate Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

· Malaysia PPI (September)

· Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Singapore Import Prices (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

· India M3 Money Supply (October/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Netherlands holds snap parliamentary elections following the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition government in June.

· German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz travels to Ankara, Turkey for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets at the Banca d’Italia in Florence through Thursday, October 30.

· Hungary Balance of Trade (September)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals (September)/ Mortgage Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

· Italy PPI (September)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)

· EARNINGS: Deutsche Bank, Adidas, UBS, BASF, Mercedes-Benz, Airbus, TotalEnergies, AB InBev, Stellantis, Lufthansa, Volkswagen

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), and another draft resolution on Colombia.

· The International Energy Agency publishes an annual World Energy Outlook on global energy prospects.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC CEO Summit. Trump hopes to hammer out a partial trade deal with China, especially around rare earth export controls China has recently instituted.

· The US’ 25% tariffs on heavy trucks enters into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a pre-recorded speech at the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Outreach Meeting.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Net Payrolls (September)

· Chile Copper Production (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gives welcoming remarks at The Evolving Landscape of Bank Funding conference hosted by the Dallas Fed.

· USA EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/29)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September & October)/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3

· EARNINGS: Amazon, Apple

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Defense chiefs from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations will meet in Kuala Lumpur through Nov. 2 for the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting. The gathering comes as the bloc expands its cooperation framework, with Germany and Turkey joining the ADMM observer program for the 2024-2027 term.

· The Japan Mobility Show, formerly known as the Tokyo Motor Show, will be held through Nov. 9 at Tokyo Big Sight. The theme of this year's event is: "A unique opportunity to explore mobility's future." A record number of over 500 companies and organizations will participate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan begins a two-day board meeting on the economy and interest rates.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/25)/ Stock Investment by

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

· Australia Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3

· Philippines Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (September)/ PPI (September)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

· Thailand Industrial Production (September)

· EARNINGS: Panasonic, Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways, Apple, Samsung Electronics

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank concludes two days of meetings in Florence and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference hosted by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 4:15 p.m. CET.

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Consumer Confidence (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)

· France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Slovakia Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

· Spain Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

· Germany Unemployed Persons (October)/ Unemployment Change (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Sales (August)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (October)

· Russia GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (September)

· Zambia Inflation Rate (October)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 31, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Bosnia and Herzegovina, followed by a debate. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

· G7 energy and Environment Ministers meet in Canada.

· The International Institute for Strategic Studies holds its Manama Dialogue Conference.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

· USA Fed Logan Speech/ Chicago PMI (October)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/31)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ PCE Price Index (September)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

· Peru Inflation Rate (October)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

· EARNINGS: Chevron, ExxonMobil, T. Rowe Price, Weyerhaeuser, Canadian National Railway, Ingersoll Rand, AbbVie, Aon

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN Leaders Meeting takes place in South Korea. Leaders of the 21-member organization are expected to meet over two days. President Trump is expected to hold talks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. South Korea is also hoping to use the meeting to promote foreign investment.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)

· South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Tokyo Core CPI (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

· Australia PPI Q3/ Housing Credit (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (October)

· China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Singapore Bank Lending (September)/ Business Confidence Q3

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

· Thailand Current Account (September)/ Private Investment & Consumption (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (October)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· India Government Budget Value (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/17)/ Deposit Growth (October/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/24)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

· EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Mitsubishi Electric,

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia holds local elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Banca d’Italia will host the 11th edition of their International Macroeconomics Workshop, jointly organized with the Bank of England and Banque de France, at their base in Rome.

· Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ MPC Meeting Summary

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)

· Hungary PPI (September)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

· France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (October)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI (October)

· Greece Retail Sales (August)

· Italy Inflation Rate (October)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Ukraine Current Account (September)

· Sri Lanka PPI (September)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Cote d’Ivoire holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· South Africa Balance of Trade (September)/ Budget Balance (September)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 1, 2025

Global

· Sierra Leone assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 2, 2025

Global

· OPEC+ meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Daylight Savings Time ends in the US.

· Mexico celebrates the Day of the Dead Parade in Mexico City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/25/25 Francis Kelly 10/25/25

CORRECTED: The Global Week Ahead

China Holds the 4th Party Plenum, Japan Elects a New Prime Minister, Rubio to Meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, the ASEAN Summit Begins, and It’s a Big Earnings Week

October 19 - 26, 2025

It is going to be a week of momentous meetings, likely to set the direction for a number of issues globally for the coming year. First, the Chinese Communist Party is holding its 4th Party Plenum in Beijing. The meetings come at a critical time for China as the economy continues to struggle to regain its footing, eight senior military officials were either arrested or kicked out of the Party last week, and President Xi continues to battle President Trump over tariffs and access to rare earth minerals.

Meanwhile, following President Trump’s meeting Friday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov in Budapest to resume discussions on how to bring either a ceasefire or an outright end to the war in Ukraine. Late this weekend, it was reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone call with President Trump this past week, reiterated his demand that Ukraine surrender large portions of occupied land in return for peace. Trump reportedly, in turn, urged Zelensky to consider the terms. Trump also denied Zelenskyy and Ukrainian military forces access to the much-sought Tomahawk missiles.

In the Middle East this week, Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to travel to Israel Tuesday to push for further implementation of the Gaza peace agreement while US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trum[‘s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected to meet with Qatari and Israeli representatives on the next steps on the shaky plan. The past week saw continued violence in Gaza as Hamas began going after rival factions, executing dozens of fighters and leaders as they struggle to retain some semblance of control in the region.

This coming Sunday, the ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. President Trump is expected to attend and preside over the peace signing ceremony between Thailand and Cambodia. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss ways to de-escalate new tensions between the US and China, which sprang back up last week when China announced a new ban on critical mineral sales globally.

This all comes in advance of a much-hoped-for meeting between Trump and President Xi in two weeks at a second ASEAN Summit, this time being held in Gyeongju, South Korea between October 31-November 1. But there is concern in the markets about the meeting and if it might be called off at the last meeting as much depends on how well the meeting between Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He go.

Also happening this week will be the election of Japan’s new Prime Minister on Tuesday. It appears that Sanae Takaichi has successfully put together a new coalition with Japan’s Innovation Party with her Liberal Democratic Party, which will make her Japan’s first female prime minister. She will attend the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur and then meet with President Trump on October 27-29 in Japan to discuss finalizing a trade deal and then attend the second ASEAN Summit in South Korea on October 31.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big event will be in the US, where, despite the ongoing government shutdown, government economists have been called back to work to assemble the September CPI numbers for release on Friday. All other government data releases are being delayed because of the shutdown so markets remain dependent on private sector data. The Conference Board releases its leading index on Monday, and the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment report on Friday. Canada’s CPI is out Tuesday.

Turning to Europe, markets will be listening closely to several speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Also, the UK will be releasing September inflation figures on Wednesday and retail sales and consumer confidence numbers on Friday. Germany and France have manufacturing PMIs on Friday.

In Asia, China will be releasing Q3 GDP and September economic figures on Monday. Japan releases trade data on Wednesday and CPI on Friday. And South Korea’s central bank interest rate decision is on Thursday.

Finally, we would note this is going to be a big earnings announcement week as market participants will get a deeper understanding of how the trade wars and the risk of inflation are impacting corporations globally.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

· The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

· The EU-Iraq Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 20, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Government shutdown is expected to continue throughout the week ahead.

· Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travels to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump, their first face-to-face meeting. Albanese is expected to seek reassurances over America's commitment to the AUKUS submarine deal and promote access to Australia's strategic materials such as rare earths as leverage in the talks with the American leader.

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Hungary to discuss Ukraine.

· Today is Heroes’ Day in Jamaica, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

· USA CB Leading Index (September)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (September)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China holds the 4th Chinese Communist Party Plenum in Beijing. The four-day forum will discuss the country’s next five-year plan.

· In Vietnam, the National Assembly holds its winter session, which lasts until December 11. They are expected to discuss 49 laws and 4 resolutions -- a record number. Vietnam, one of the fastest-growing economies, is ramping up wide-ranging reforms that the government expects will help fuel double-digit economic growth in 2026, up from an expected 8% in GDP growth this year.

· Diwali is celebrated in India through October 25.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (October)/ House Price Index (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Communist Party Fourth Plenum

· Reserve Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan.

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. The Foreign Ministers will discuss the state of the War in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the EU-Indo-Pacific relations.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Luxembourg.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the Summit of Southern European Union countries (MED-9) in Portorož, Slovenia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements.

· European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at WE_ARE_IN conference in Frankfurt. European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Boris Vujcic attend a roundtable in New York.

· Germany PPI (September)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

· Euro Area Current Account (August)/Construction Output (August)

· Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

· Slovakia Current Account (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)/ M1 Money Supply (September)

· Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q3

· Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (September)

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TVV meeting on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve holds its Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C. Federal Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks.

· Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)

· USA Redbook (October/18)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/17)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (August)/ Imports (August)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

· EARNINGS: Netfilx, GE, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, Capital One, Danaher, Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, 3M, General Motors, EQT, Equifax, PulteGroup, Haliburton

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan’s Diet will vote on who will be the next Prime Minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Credit Card Spending (September)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/21)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks on a panel at the ISDA/AFMA Derivatives Trading Forum in Sydney.

· Japan BoJ Himino Speech

· Taiwan Export Orders (September)

· India Infrastructure Output (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russia is expected to begin 10-days of naval exercises in the Pacific in waters close to South Korea and Japan.

· The Helsinki Security Forum takes place in Helsinki. The event brings together experts and decision-makers to explore European security and defense. It will also address how Europe can boost its competitiveness, invest in Defence, and shape its security order. High-level delegates are expected to attend, and participants include representatives from the Defence industry, research institutions, and government bodies.

· The EU-Uzbekistan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

· The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. They will discuss the Multiannual Financial Framework 2028-2034, Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary, and other issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote address at the Norges Bank's Climate Conference followed by moderated discussion with Al Gore in Oslo, Norway.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the House of Lords' Financial Services Regulation Committee on the growth in private markets in the UK following reforms introduced after the 2008 financial crisis.

· Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements DLT Innovation Challenge Showcase in London.

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (September)

· Greece Current Account (August)

· Slovenia PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The ISS/Africa Futures Conference 2025 takes place online.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial inclusion at the Crossing the Credit Barrier Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/17)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/17)

· Mexico Economic Activity (August)

· Argentina Economic Activity (August)/ Leading Indicator (September)

· EARNINGS: Tesla, SAP, IBM, Thermo Fisher, AT&T, UniCredit, Barclays, Moody’s, Southwest Airlines, Alcoa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (September)

· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan, Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Egypt Summit will be held in Brussels.

· The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Luxembourg.

· In London, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosts the 2025 Berlin Process Summit in partnership with Germany. The meeting aims to support stability, security, and economic co-operation in the western Balkan region.

· The Global Security and Innovation Summit, a two-day event to discuss global security challenges and to explore new security technology, opens in Hamburg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the Frankfurt Finance & Future Summit in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a talk at the Barcelona Real Assets Meeting 2025 in Barcelona, Spain.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods gives a speech at the Annual City Banquet at Mansion House in London.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)/ BoE Woods Speech

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

· Poland Retail Sales (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

· Russia Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva travels to Indonesia and Malaysia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Canada Retail Sales (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (September)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (October)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/22)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Paraguay PPI (September)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

· EARNNGS: T-Mobile, Blackstone, Intel, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Newmont, Freeport-McMorRan, Ford Motor, Baker Hughes, Dassault Systems, PG&E, Dow, EvolutionAB, Atlas Copco

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/18)

· Australia RBA Bulletin

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

· Philippines Budget Balance (September)

· Thailand New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Euro Summit takes place in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane accepts the occasion of the conferral of the 2025 Pádraig Ó hUiginn Award to him in Dublin, Ireland.

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee, Jonathan Hall, gives a speech on the Bank of England Financial Committee’s mandate and the search for a social optimum in London.

· France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Spain Balance of Trade (August)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)

· Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Libya Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 24, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The United Nations Organization: Looking into the Future..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will hold an Open Board Meeting. The Board will consider proposals to enhance the transparency and public accountability of the Board’s stress testing framework and request comments on the scenarios for the Board’s 2026 supervisory stress test.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ Current Account (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (October)

· Chile PPI (September)

· USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/24)/ New Home Sales (September)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, NatWest, Saab, Sanofi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech in Sydney/Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

· Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

· India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

· China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ireland holds Presidential elections.

· European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council, meets with Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Uzbekistan, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat titled 'Il nuovo quadro della finanza internationale' at Cambio di Paradigma organized by Il Mattino in Naples, Italy.

· European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Francois Villeroy de Galhau speak at the Berlin Global Dialogue.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ Car Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

· France Consumer Confidence (October)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

· Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

· Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Zambia's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Japan, the Mount Fuji Dialogue begins. The gathering unites influential government officials and businesspeople from the U.S. and Japan, will be held in Tokyo. Hosted by the Japan Center for Economic Research and the Japan Institute of International Affairs, the annual event comes amid flaring U.S.-China tensions and political uncertainty in Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the 2025 Berlin Global Dialogue in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bosnia and Herzegovina holds a referendum in the ethnic Republika Srpska to vote on whether they accept the courts’ decision to convict Milorad Dodik and later to remove him as RS president. Dodik has also stated that a referendum on independence for the Serbian entity might be held at a future date.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Ivory Coast holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summer Time – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/18/25 Francis Kelly 10/18/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

There is No End to the Government Shutdown In Sight, the Senate Banking Committee holds a Prudential Regulator Hearing, the Fed Holds Its Payments Conference, and SIFMA and ABA hold their Annual Meetings

October 20 - 24, 2025

The federal government shutdown continues into its fourth week. Our assessment is that the shutdown will go on for another two to three weeks – perhaps longer – as there seems to be little incentive or energy in Congress to settle the funding dispute. And the House of Representatives remains out of session and will remain out until a deal is cut between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate.

But there are still several important events this coming week of importance to the markets. The most important being a hearing entitled “Rightsizing Regulation” in the Senate Banking Committee, where all the major prudential regulators will testify. The hearing seems to be a prelude to the much-discussed bank regulatory reform effort the Treasury Department has been discussing over the last few months. So, this hearing may be quite worthwhile to watch.

Also this week, SIFMA and the American Bankers Association are holding their annual meetings – SIFMA’s in Washington, D.C., and the ABA’s in Charlotte, North Carolina. SEC Chair Paul Atkins will headline the SIFMA event while Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will keynote the ABA meeting.

Looking back at last week, we note a speech Atkins gave at the University of Delaware’s John Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance’s 25th Anniversary Gala. Atkins revealed he has directed the SEC staff to review Rule 14a-8, the regulation that allows a company’s shareholders to request that a proposal be included in the company’s official proxy statement for shareholders to vote on.

Also, last week, as part of the 2026 SEC budget proposal, the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) proposed a 20% cut to the salaries of its board members. Currently, the PBAOB Chair makes $637,000 a year (meanwhile, the President of the United States makes $200,000 a year).

Below is a listing of all the rest of the major regulatory events in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, October 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing, Transportation, and Community Development will hold a hearing entitled “Innovation in US Housing: Solutions and Policies for America’s Future.”

· Thursday, October 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Update from the Prudential Regulators: Rightsizing Regulation to Promote American Opportunity.” Testifying will be Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair for Supervision, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Travis Hill, Acting Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; Jonathan Gould, Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; and Kyle Hauptman, Chairman, National Credit Union Administration.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is out of session. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) has stated the House will remain out until the government shutdown ends.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, October 21, 8:00 a.m. – 3:45 p.m. – The Federal Reserve holds its Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, October 21, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Board’s Payments Innovation Conference, Washington, D.C

· Wednesday, October 22, 4:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial inclusion at the Crossing the Credit Barrier Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

· Thursday, October 23, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will testify before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· Thursday, October 23, 10:25 a.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on community investment at the Novogradac 2025 Fall New Markets Tax Credit Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana.

· Friday, October 24, 2:00 p.m. – The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will hold an Open Board Meeting. The Board will consider proposals to enhance the transparency and public accountability of the Board’s stress testing framework and request comments on the scenarios for the Board’s 2026 supervisory stress test.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Monday, October 20, 10:30 a.m. – Ken Kies, Assistant Treasury Secretary for Tax Policy and Acting IRS Chief Counsel, delivers remarks on "his career path, his experience with other major tax legislation, and the challenges of juggling the Assistant Secretary and Chief Counsel positions” at the American Bar Association’s 2025 Fall Tax Meeting in Washington, D.C.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, October 21, 8:50 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside talk with SIFMA President and CEO Ken Benstsen at the SIFMA Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C..

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Tuesday, October 20, 8:30 a.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will discuss priorities and agency initiatives at the American Bankers Association’s Annual Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday – Tuesday, October 20 – 21 – SIFMA holds its Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, October 20, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a hybrid event entitled “Are Geopolitics Leading to Fragmentation of the International Financial System?”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/17/25 Francis Kelly 10/17/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Federal Government Remains Shut, and the House is Out of Session. But it is IMF/World Bank Week, and the IIF, STA, and Fintech Foundation Host Big Conferences

October 13 - 17, 2025

Next week is going to be a particularly odd week: It is Columbus Day today (Monday - a federal holiday), but the Federal Government is shut down and will likely remain shut down all week, and as a result, there are no Congressional hearings scheduled (indeed, the House is going to remain out of session until the shutdown ends).

However, Washington will also be extremely busy, as it is also hosting the annual International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings, bringing finance ministers from around the world to the city (heads-up: expect lots of motorcades and closed-off streets).

There will be, however, a number of speeches being given by Federal Reserve Board and regional Fed Presidents – including a speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell on the economic outlook. Considering the lack of economic reports from the federal government due to the shutdown, Powell’s speech will be closely watched in advance of the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting. And Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be speaking twice this week on regulatory issues.

Arguably, the biggest events this week will be the Institute for International Finance’s annual 2025 members meeting, the Securities Traders Association annual conference, and the Fintech Week 2025 conference. Between the two conferences, several regulators will be speaking.

Below is a listing of all the rest of the major regulatory events in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· There are no significant hearings scheduled at this time. A number of committee hearings have been postponed due to the federal government shutdown.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is out of session. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) has stated the House will remain out until the government shutdown ends.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, October 13, Noon – Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting," Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.”

· Tuesday, October 14, 8:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, October 14, 12:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

· Tuesday, October 14, 3:25 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, October 14, 3:30 p.m. – Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

· Wednesday, October 15, 9:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).

· Wednesday, October 15, 12:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, October 15, 12:10 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation and Q&A on “Economic Mobility" before the United Way Regional Summit on Economic Mobility for Children and Youth.

· Wednesday, October 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on artificial intelligence at the 2025 D Fintech Week.

· Thursday, October 16, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before a virtual Aiken County Chamber of Commerce event.

· Thursday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Governor Christopher J. Waller, New York, New York.

· Thursday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, October 16, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks at the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference (virtual).

· Thursday, October 16, 12:45 p.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics.

· Thursday, October 16, 4:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit, Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, October 16, 4:30 p.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Risk Management Association.

· Thursday, October 16, 6:00 p.m. – Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City.

· Friday, October 17, 12:15 p.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem discusses the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Institute for International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, October 15, 4:00 p.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will give the keynote speech at the DC Fintech Week 2025.

· Thursday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins participates in a fireside chat at the Securities Traders Association Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Tuesday, October 15, 9:00 a.m. – Acting Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Travis Hill delivers remarks on "The Banking Revolution" at the D.C. Fintech Week 2025 Conference.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· Wednesday, October 15, 1:30 p.m. – FINRA President and CEO Robert Cook speaks at the Securities Traders Association annual conference in Washington, D.C.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· It is IMF/World Bank 2025 Annual Meeting week.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday – Friday, October 14 – 17 – The Institute for International Finance holds their 2025 Annual Membership Meeting in Washington, D.C. You can see the long list of speakers HERE.

· Tuesday, October 14, 3:00 p.m. – Maurice Obstfeld, PIIE C. Fred Bergsten senior fellow, joins Anjali V. Bhatt, PIIE communications manager and research fellow, for a live, virtual conversation about tariffs in the US as fiscal policy , the future of the US-centric, dollar-based international monetary and financial system, and other topics.

· October 15 – 16 – The Fintech Foundation holds its D.C. Fintech Week 2025. You can see the schedule of speakers HERE.

· October 15 – 17 – The Securities Traders Association holds its 92nd Annual Market Structure Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, October 15, 11:00 a.m. – The Cato Institute holds an event entitled “Fifty-Five Years of the Bank Secrecy Act.”

· Wednesday, October 15, Noon – Representative Andy Barry (R-KY), Chair of the House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee, will speak at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 10/12/25 Francis Kelly 10/12/25

The Global Week Ahead

Peace Comes to Gaza and Hostages Are To Be Released, The US Government Remains Shutdown, China Cuts off Rare Earth Exports, Argentina’s Milei Meets with Trump Again, and The Annual World Bank/IMF Take Place in Washington, DC

October 12 - 19, 2025

It will be a historic week as Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump gather in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to witness the signing of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas brokered by Trump. And, after more than two years of captivity, the remaining Israeli hostages are scheduled to be released on Monday. More than 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and more than 1700 detainees rounded up since Israeli forces entered Gaza are to be released.

The challenge now is to keep the ceasefire going in the second phase of the agreement. This includes questions about the future governance of Gaza, getting Hamas to disarm, and how to rebuild the devastated region.

Also this week, Argentine President Javier Milei will travel to Washington to meet with President Trump to discuss the newly inked bailout package the US is giving Argentina. The US Treasury intervened in the Argentine currency market to stabilize the peso. Milei is hoping to garner further support from Trump as mid-term elections approach in Argentina.

All this comes as China moved to impose tough new export controls on rare earths, lithium-ion batteries, and synthetic diamonds – a move which shocked many countries and triggered President Trump to impose new 100 percent tariffs on China on Friday. Markets are trying to ascertain how serious and long-term China’s moves are, or if it is merely a negotiating tactic by China’s President Xi in advance of a possible meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN meeting later this month.

Finally, the US federal government remains shutdown and from all indications, will remain shut down this coming week. There appears to be little to no real negotiations between Congressional Democrats and Republicans, and the House of Representatives is expected to remain out of session this coming week. Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has begun laying off federal employees as opposed to furloughing them. And with the shutdown, a number of US data releases will not be released.

This brings us to this week’s global economic and financial radar screen. Dominating the week will be the 2025 World Bank/IMF Annual meetings and the many side events being held in Washington – the most important being the Institute for International Finance’s annual member meeting – where numerous central bankers will pop by to give speeches and participate on panels.

Looking at the Americas, with the US federal government shutdown still going on, most major data releases are either being canceled or delayed (leaving the Federal Reserve will remain flying somewhat blind on data in advance of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, October 28 – 29.) The most important now-delayed release is the September CPI which was scheduled to come out October 15th. That report has now been rescheduled to October 24.

What is likely to guide markets is the large number of Federal Reserve and regional Fed speeches this week, including Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday. Also, we would note this week we will see a number of major bank and financial institutions earnings reports including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BlackRock.

Turning to Europe, we will see Eurozone labor market data releases and the German ZEW Survey on Tuesday, GDP numbers on Thursday, and lots of speeches from European Central Bank board members – including several by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

In Asia this week, the big economic releases will be coming out of China where trade figures are published on Monday and inflation data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Afghan Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqui, will visit India and will reportedly discuss developmental assistance, among other things.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 2025 World Health Summit, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Cameroon holds presidential elections. President Paul Biya is running for his 8th term in office. If he wins, he will be in office as president until he is 100 years old.

· Equatorial Guinea celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 13, 2025

Global

· IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting week begins in Washington, D.C.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1559 report (Lebanon).

· OPEC releases its monthly oil production report.

· The Nobel Prize in Economics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump travels to Egypt to attend the Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt. Multiple Middle Eastern leaders will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza, negotiated by Trump.

· Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets are closed.

· It is Columbus Day in the US. Stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed, as are most banks, and the US government is closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting," Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.”

· Brazil Business Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· President Xi Jinping to attend the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders’ Meeting on Women in Beijing, where he will deliver a keynote speech.

· Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand travels to New Delhi to meet with meets with India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Anand then travels to Singapore for a meeting with Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan. From there, Anand travels to China for talks with China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Services NZ PSI (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

· India Inflation Rate (September)

· Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Albania to meet with President Bajram Begaj and Prime Minister Edi Rama. She will participate in the opening ceremony of the EU-Western Balkans Investment Forum. Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with President Jakov Milatovic and Prime Minister Milojko Spajic.

· The 71st Annual Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly will be held in Ljubljana, Slovenia

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers through October 14 in Horsens, Denmark.

· There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Luxembourg. The ministers are expected to discuss the rule of law, the “fight against Russian impunity,” and Eurojust.

· NATO’s annual two-week nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon will begin in the Netherlands.

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis in Athens, Greece.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene delivers the keynote address at the SPE Annual Conference in London.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ Current Account (August)

· Romania Inflation Rate (September)

· Slovakia Construction Output (August)

· Turkey Current Account (August)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

· Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt. Multiple Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza.

· The remaining living Israeli hostages in Gaza will likely be released either today or tomorrow as part of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement.

· President Trump is expected to travel to Jerusalem, Israel, where he will address the Israeli Knesset.

· Israel celebrates Simchat Torah Eve. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Global

· The IMF publishes their World Economic Outlook report.

· The International Energy Agency monthly oil market report is published.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions. In the morning, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

· The Institute for International Finance Annual Membership meeting begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through October 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump is expected to welcome Argentina’s President Javier Milei to the White House. They are expected to discuss the US’s recent bailout of the Argentine economy and regional security issues.

· The 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber imports from Canada and elsewhere go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

· Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers holds a fireside chat at the B.C. Business Summit in Vancouver.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September/Redbook (October/11)

· Canada Building Permits (August)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

· EARNINGS: Aeon, BlackRock, BP, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, LVMH, Publicis Groupe, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. and China are due to begin collecting port fees on each other's ships, in an escalating competition for the seas. Washington announced its docking charges earlier this year to challenge Chinese maritime dominance and revive American shipbuilding. On Friday, Beijing said it would respond in kind.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

· India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)

· China New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing SE

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss civil protection and health preparedness, the Schengen Agreement, Migration and other issues.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina. She will meet with the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and meet with Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers Borjana Krišto; visits the Srebrenica Memorial Centre.

· Today is Defender of Ukraine Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives remarks at the ECR Expert Policy conference "What Future for the Digital Euro?" organized by European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum 2025 in New York.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the Ethics and Compliance Conference organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor presents remarks and a fireside chat with FT columnist Gillian Tett at Kings College, Cambridge, on ‘diversion ahead’.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

· Ireland Construction PMI (September)

· Germany Inflation Rate (September)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

· Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ECB Donnery Speech

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Romania Current Account (August)

· Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-monitored Gaza-Egypt pedestrian border crossing reopens.

· Today is Yemen Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Global

· The IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings formally begin in Washington, D.C.

· G7 Finance Ministers are expected to meet in Washington to discuss increasing pressure on Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on “Economic Mobility" before the United Way Regional Summit on Economic Mobility for Children and Youth.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on artificial intelligence at the 2025 D Fintech Week.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/10)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/10)

· Brazil Retail Sales (August)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (August)/ Wholesale Sales (August)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· EARNINGS: Abbot Laboratories, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group., Progressive

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Japanese Diet will hold an extraordinary session to elect a new prime minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a fireside chat at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at a Citi conference in Sydney.

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

· China Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q3

· India Unemployment Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)/ GDP (September)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) meeting in Brussels. EU Defense Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte chairing the session.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the Arab League Summit in Moscow.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister Đuro Macut. Later, she travels to Kosovo to meet with President Vjosa Osmani and caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Later in the day, she travels to North Macedonia: to meet with President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova and Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and then meets President of the Assembly Afrim Gashi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening address at the 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium. Later, he gives remarks at the 25th anniversary of Alantra in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel at the IIF Annual Membership meeting in Washington, D.C.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor, financial stability, Sarah Breeden is a panelist at the Fintech Foundation 2025 DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden speaks in a panel event at the Single Resolution Mechanism 10th Anniversary Conference in Brussels.

· Romania Industrial Production (August)

· France Inflation Rate (September)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

· Spain Inflation Rate (September)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (September)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (August)/ Residential Property Prices (August)

· Serbia Building Permits (August)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (August)

· Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

· Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (September)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Global

· IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Housing Starts (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before a virtual Aiken County Chamber of Commerce event.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Governor Christopher J. Waller, New York, New York.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks at the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference (virtual).

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit, Washington, D.C.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Risk Management Association.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City.

· USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October/NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/10)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/15)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/11)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/11)/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Inventories (August)

· EARNINGS: Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, ABB, CSX, Interactive Brokers, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Marsh McLennan, Nordea Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor, Travelers, United Airlines, US Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Okinawa.

· Australia Employment Change (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

· New Zealand Food Inflation (September)

· Japan Machinery Orders (August)/BoJ JGB Purchase/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg.

· The European Commission will unveil its "Roadmap for Defence Readiness."

· The 2025 Arctic Circle Assembly will meet in Iceland. It is expected that more than 2,000 people representing more than 60 countries will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an IMF's Debate on the Global Economy: Shaping Economic Policies in the Face of Disruptive Change in Washington D.C., USA

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the SSM Conference on Digitalization in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a roundtable discussion "Central Banking and Supervision in a Geopolitically Fragmented World: Risks, Responses, and Cooperation" organized by Toronto Centre in Washington D.C.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel panel "Monetary Crosscurrents: Rethinking Frameworks Amid Trade and Policy Fragmentation" at 2025 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Growth and Innovation in an Uncertain World" in Washington D.C.,

· Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

· Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

· Italy Inflation Rate (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

· Belarus Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (August)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

· Ghana PPI (September)

Friday, October 17, 2025

Global

· IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem discusses the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Institute for International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.

· USA Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Building Permits (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

· EARNINGS: American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, Truist Financial, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The KMT, Taiwan's biggest opposition party, chooses a new leader as it seeks a path back to power. The KMT has lost three straight presidential elections to the Democratic Progressive Party, most recently in January 2024. But it enjoys a legislative majority with its smaller partner, the Taiwan People's Party, and it has momentum after vanquishing efforts to recall some of its lawmakers this summer. The winner will be in a position to influence how Taiwan handles cross-strait tensions with China and tricky ties with the U.S..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/11)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· India Bank Loan Growth (October/03)/ Deposit Growth (October/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives remarks and takes questions at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) "Addressing Regulatory Fragmentation" roundtable discussion in Washington D.C.

· Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Annual Conference.

· Hungary Gross Wage (August)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

· Euro Area CPI Final (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ ECB Donnery Speech

· Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

· Serbia Current Account (August)

· Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Global

· The World Bank/IMF Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

· UN Security Council Resolution 2231 will expire today, unless extended. The Security Council unanimously adopted the resolution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bolivia Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion at Group of Thirty opening panel "Global Economic Outlook" in Washington D.C.

· European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollon participates on a panel discussion at Euro50Group meeting in Washington D.C.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

· The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 10/10/25 Francis Kelly 10/10/25

Global Week Ahead

Israeli-Hamas Peace Talks Take a Big Step, Trump Meetings with Canada’s Carney, the EU Parliament Holds No-Confidence Votes, the US Government Looks to Be Shut Another Week, and Markets Await a Flood of Central Bank Speeches

October 5 - 12, 2025

The world is watching events unfold in the Middle East as Hamas appears to be ready to accept a good portion of President Trump’s peace plan proposal, including releasing all remaining hostages (just as we come up on the 2 year anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on Israel). There are several unresolved points but US negotiators led by Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff are in Egypt now working to finalize the deal but there is real hope the hostages will be released this week.

Also this week, President Trump has invited Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to meet with him at the White House on Tuesday to discuss both trade issues as well as mutual security concerns. Trade negotiators have been careful not to oversell the outcome of the meeting but there is hope a deal can be struck between the two leaders.

Meanwhile in Washington, the federal government shutdown continues, and House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has announced the House of Representatives will not return to work unless Democrats accept the continuing resolution they passed two weeks ago. At this point, we do not see a deal emerging soon but there is always hope.

In Europe, the European Parliament is scheduled to hold two no-confidence votes against EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden. This is the second time no-confidence votes have been brought against von der Leyden in the last three months. While both votes are expected to fail, it shows how split the Parliament is on issues ranging from trade to climate.

Staying in Europe, the Nobel Committee will begin announcing winners of their prestigious prize on Monday. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, and the Nobel Prize for Economics will be announced next Monday.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are awaiting a flood of speeches from central bankers. In the US alone, we count sixteen Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve President speeches over the course of five days, including a speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell.

And in the EU, we count eleven scheduled European Central Bank (ECB) board member speeches including two from ECB President Christine Lagarde (and more are expected to be announced) plus Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking in Scotland. That is a lot of data for the markets to take in and, in our view, a bit odd considering the week of October 12th is the Annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, DC where there will be countless central bankers speaking.

With the US government shutdown still going, there will be limited economic data releases. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from their last Open Market Meeting. And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out Friday.

In Asia, China’s Gold Week holiday continues until October 8th. Japan, which has just elected its first woman as Prime Minister, releases its Regional Economic Report on Monday and the Consumer Activity Index on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

· OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

· Israel is expected to begin mediated negotiations with Hamas in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Monday, October 6, 2025

Global

· The Nobel Committee begins announcing winners of prizes. Today’s prize will be for physiology or medicine.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and Peace and Security.

· The World Trade Organization’s General Council meeting takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court begins a new term, hearing cases.

· Unless there is a last-minute breakthrough agreement between Congressional Republicans and Democrats over a Continuing Resolution bill, the federal government will remain shut this week and the House of Representatives will stay out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks to CFA Society Kansas City on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Colombia Exports (August)/ PPI (September)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Azerbaijan hosts the 12th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament is expected to hold two separate no-confidence vote son European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sometime this week. Both votes are expected to fail.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Scotland’s Global Investment Summit 2025 being held in Edinburgh.

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening remarks at the Diario Expansión: XVI Encuentro Financiero in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2025: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany

· Romania Retail Sales (August)

· Hungary Retail Sales (August)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

· Spain Industrial Production (August)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ ECB Lane Speech/ Retail Sales (August)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· France HCOB Construction PMI (September)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

· Serbia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

· Jordan PPI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (AU).

· Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event begins and runs through October 8. This will be closely watched by economist for any slowdown in shopping by consumers.

· The 2025 Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US President Donald Trump will host Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House for talks on trade.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran

· Sits for a fireside chat at the Managed Funds Association (MFA) Policy Outlook 2025 in New York.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran gives a talk at the Deutsche Bank 2025 Fall Macro Conference in New York.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in discussion on the economic outlook at event hosted by Fisk University.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation on artificial intelligence and the economy before the Star Tribune North Star Summit 2025.

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Mexico Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (September)

· USA Redbook (October/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Consumer Credit Change (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

· Brazil Car Production (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The FIATA World Congress – global freight forwarders – in Hanoi, Vietnam to discuss various topics, such as challenges in the new global trade landscape and how to navigate them. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is scheduled to attend the event

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q3/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/07)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)/ RBA Annual Report 2025

· Japan Household Spending (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Economic Index (August)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Motorbike Sales (September)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech followed by a Q&A session at Business France event 'Business en Européens' in Paris, France.

· Germany Factory Orders (August)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)/ Treasury Gilt 2028 Tender

· Hungary Industrial Production August)

· France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· This is the 2nd anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on civilians in Israel and taking of hostages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Global

· In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia and the 2713 Committee. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

· In Washington, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain raiser speech for the upcoming 2025 Annual Meetings being held next week.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louise, Missouri.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on community development and Indian Country the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Center for Indian Country Development 10th Anniversary and Data Summit: Braiding the Past and Future of Native Economies, Minneapolis, Minnesota.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

· Chile Inflation Rate (September)

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (October/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/03)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/03)

· Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Paris Europlace Forum 20254 will take place in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Uedo speaks at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo.

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Bank Lending (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Survey (September)

· Australia Building Permits (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at 55th anniversary event of the Werner Report "Itinéraires luxembourgeois et européens" in Luxembourg.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion at the International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

· Germany Industrial Production (August)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (September)

· Greece Balance of Trade (August)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (September)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).   

· The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Literature is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video)

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Future of Community Banking: Challenges and Opportunities” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis, Minesota.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Looking Toward the Future” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/08)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/04)/ Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Indonesia Car Sales (September)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg. The EU Finance Ministers will discuss macroeconomic and fiscal monitoring including preparation for upcoming international meetings.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 10 in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a roundtable discussion and Q&A at the Irish Association of Investment Managers in Dublin, Ireland.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

· Greece Inflation Rate (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

· Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Uganda Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Friday, October 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

· The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in fireside chat before the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce Public Policy Speaker's Series.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before the 19th annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Charting the Course" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Brazil PPI (August)

· Mexico Industrial Production (August)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Wages (September)

· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te is expected to deliver a national day address.

· Tajikistan will host a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Dushanbe. They will simultaneously host the 2ndCentral Asia-Russia Summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend both events.

· North Korea is expected to show off its newest weapons at a large military parade to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party. High-ranking officials from China and Russia are expected to participate. The last time North Korea held a large military parade was in July 2023 to mark the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)

· Australia RBA Bullock Speech/ RBA Kent Speech

· Japan PPI (September)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (September)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· India Bank Loan Growth (September/26)/ Deposit Growth (September/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit India through October 10th.

· In Slovenia, the 2025 Nato Parliamentary Assembly Annual Session, where 281 parliamentary members from 32 Nato member states are due to discuss Euro-Atlantic Defence and the continent’s security agenda.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Brussels.

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss financing the EU Budget, taxation of tobacco, climate financing, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

· Turkey Retail Sales (August)

· Italy Industrial Production (August)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

· Greece Industrial Production (August)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

· Russia Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Naura holds parliamentary elections and a referendum on the Constitution.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Scottish National party annual three-day conference begins in Aberdeen.

· In Belfast, Northern Ireland’s Ulster Unionist party annual conference open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Gabon holds the 2nd round of National Assembly elections.

· IN the Seychelles, the conclusion of a three-day presidential run-off election after no candidate secured the required 50 per cent majority in the first-round vote, held on September 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 2025 World Health Summit opens, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Fulcrum Perspectives

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reading

CORRECTED: The Global Week Ahead

China Holds the 4th Party Plenum, Japan Elects a New Prime Minister, Rubio to Meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, the ASEAN Summit Begins, and It’s a Big Earnings Week

October 19 - 26, 2025

Sunday, October 19, 2025

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

There is No End to the Government Shutdown In Sight, the Senate Banking Committee holds a Prudential Regulator Hearing, the Fed Holds Its Payments Conference, and SIFMA and ABA hold their Annual Meetings

October 20 - 24, 2025

Recommended Weekend Reads

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

Global Week Ahead

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