The Global Week Ahead

Nov 16

Trump Hosts Saudi Deputy Crown Prince, Chile Holds Presidential Elections, US Tension with Venezuela Grows, BLS Jobs Reports Return, and Markets Await Inflation Reports

November 16 - 23, 2025

There will be a lot of political action in the Americas this week of special interest to markets. First, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salam (MBS) will visit the White House on Tuesday. The meeting is seen as an important step following President Trump’s efforts to bring peace to Gaza and Trump’s historic meeting with Syria’s President Ahmed al-Sharaa last week.

MBS’s visit is facing considerable anger as memories in Washington of the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, thought to have been ordered by MBS, are still strong. While here, MBS is expected to seek to ink a deal to greatly enhance US-Saudi defense relations, including the sale of advanced F-35 fighters to Saudi Arabia. We are also watching for possible announcements regarding Saudi Arabia’s plans to invest billions in US data center development and other major technology initiatives.

While this is all going on, tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to grow. The US Defense Department announced last week the launch of Operation Southern Spear – a major effort targeting narco-terrorist activity and operations in the Hemisphere with a likely initial focus on Venezuela. The announcement comes as the USS Gerald R. Ford, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, comes within range of Venezuela, and as US military training and drills across the Caribbean ramp up.

Also happening this week in the region is Chile’s presidential elections, being held today (Sunday). Polling suggests conservative candidate Jose Antonio Kast leading, but not enough to avoid a run-off vote on December 14 against left-wing candidate Jeannette Jara.

Finally, we would note that US sanctions on Russian oil are scheduled to begin on Friday. Markets will be watching closely to see whether Russia does anything between now and then to mitigate the impact, such as offering to sit down for peace talks over Ukraine. We doubt it, though.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big event in the US will be the return of government economic reports, released after Congress reopened the federal government. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will be releasing September jobs figures on Thursday. Also, this week in the US markets, we will be watching for the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee minutes being released. The economic news will also be filled with reports by more than 15 Federal Reserve Board and Reserve Bank members.

In Asia, Japan releases Q3 GDP figures today (Sunday) and October CPI figures on Thursday. China announces lending rates on Thursday.

Turning to Europe, the flash November PMIs are out on Friday for the UK and the Euro Area, including Germany and France. The UK will also release retail sales and consumer confidence figures on Friday. Add to this numerous speeches by European Central Bank board members, including a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, November 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Right-wing opposition Chile Vamos coalition's candidate, former Providencia mayor Evelyn Matthei (2016-24), will likely win the presidency; if a run-off is needed, it will be held on 14 December 2025.

· Ecuador will hold referendums on whether to allow foreign military bases in the country and whether to remove state funding of political parties.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 17, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Threats to international peace and security: Conflict-related food insecurity.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on releasing all the Epstein files.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Society of Professional Economists (SPE) Annual Dinner 2025, London, United Kingdom.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Governance and Culture Reform Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari moderates a fireside chat and audience Q&A with Christophe Beck, CEO of Ecolab, at the November luncheon for the Economic Club of Minnesota.

· Canada Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI Median (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (September)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (November)/ NOPA Crush Report/Net Long-term TIC Flows AUG/ Foreign Bond Investment AUG/ Overall Net Capital Flows AUG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn concludes a five-day state visit to his kingdom's near neighbor, the first by a Thai monarch since diplomatic relations were established in 1975.

· A special tribunal in Bangladesh's capital is expected to render a verdict against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for her alleged offenses during the 2024 protests that ultimately drove her from power.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (October)/ Food Inflation (October)

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

· India Unemployment Rate (October)

· China FDI (YTD) (October)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (September)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (October)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in France.

· The 7th Accession Conference with Albania begins in Brussels.

· The EU Agricultural and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Council of Heads of Government begins a two-day meeting in Moscow ahead of Russia taking over the rotating presidency of the SCO from China.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Finland’s President, Alexander Stubb, in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the 28th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the J.E. Cairnes Lecture on "The Monetary Policy of the European Central Bank" at the University of Galway, Ireland.

· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ European Commission Autumn Forecasts

· Italy Inflation Rate (October)

· Turkey Auto Production (October)/ Auto Sales (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

· Belarus Industrial Production (October)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (October)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Dubai Airshow is held at Al Maktoum International Airport through Nov. 21, bringing together more than 1,500 exhibitors.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q3

· Nigeria Food Inflation (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing followed by consultations on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House.

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney begins a state visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including meeting UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan. He will then travel to South Africa to attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit.

· The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission releases its annual report to Congress.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on bank supervision at the Kogod School of Business Alan Meltzer Speaker Series, Washington, D.C.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the "Making Missing Markets: Connecting Communities and Capital" hybrid event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks on the economic outlook at Shenandoah University.

· Chile Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Canada Housing Starts (October)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (November)/ Redbook (November/15)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/14)/ Export Prices (September & October)/ Import Prices (September & October)/ Industrial Production (September & October)/ Capacity Utilization (September & October)/ Manufacturing Production (September & October)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (September)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ISE Economic Activity (September)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's ruling party will hold its first meetings under new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to discuss revising security policies through November 20.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission EU Enlargement Forum is held in Brussels, including an opening message from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The theme is Completing the Union, Securing our Future.

· The European Digital Sovereignty summit begins in Berlin, co-hosted by Chancellor Friedrich Merz and France’s President Emmanuel Macron, and discussing Europe’s digital future, security and independence.

· UK former prime minister Sir John Major gives the Maurice Fraser Annual Lecture at the London School of Economics, titled “Britain in a changing world”. Separately, the Police Federation of England and Wales begins its two-day annual conference in Birmingham, and in Westminster the Treasury Committee holds an evidence session on cryptocurrency.

· The annual Festival of Economics, a four-day event with economists and experts from around the world, begins in the British city of Bristol.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Moldova’s Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra to speak at the Knoop Annual Lecture at the University of Sheffield on ‘Unpacking the puzzle of income growth and weak consumption in the UK’.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives remarks at the "Banca do Futuro" conference on the reform of SREP and AI in banking supervision in Lisbon, Portugal.

· The European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives the keynote speech at the Symposium on the current hybrid threat environment and financial stability organized by Commerzbank and Hybrid CoE in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the introductory statement at the ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2025 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates at ECB Banking Supervision press conference on the aggregate results of the 2024 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Hungary Gross Wage (September)

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q3

· Great Britain BoE Dhingra Speech

· Belarus GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Interest Rate Decision/ Wholesale Prices (October)

· Ghana PPI (October)

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). This afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1267/1989/2253 Committee (sanctioned nations) and the 1373 Committee (counter-terrorism), as well as the 1540 Committee (nuclear weapons)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The United States will host a U.S.-Saudi investment summit in Washington, D.C.

· The USA-India Business Summit begins in Atlanta, Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech on bank regulation and the Fed’s balance sheet at the Bank Policy Institute and Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council: Conversation with Governor Stephen I. Miran, Washington, D.C.

· Bank of Canada External Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent speaks in Quebec.

· The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee minutes are released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/14)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/14)/ Starts (September & October)/ Building Permits (September & October)

· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (October)/ Leading Indicator (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand PPI Input Q3/ PPI Output Q3

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Machinery Orders (September)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)/ Wage Price Index Q3

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (November)/ Lending Facility Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Tajikistan Cooperation Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at the 2025 EBA Policy Research Workshop in Paris, France.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI Input (October)/ PPI Output (October)/ Retail Price Index (October)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Current Account (September)/ CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ ECB Buch Speech

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (October)

· Italy Current Account (September)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (September)/ Residential Property Prices (September)

· Serbia Current Account (September)

· Russia PPI (October)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang begins a two-day official visit to the country ahead of travelling to the G20 summit in South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

Thursday, November 20, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (dealing with Israel and Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The funeral of former Vice President Dick Cheney takes place in Washington, D.C.

· Today s Revolution Day in Mexico, a national holiday.

· Today is National Sovereignty Day in Argentina, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Assessing Resilience and Vulnerabilities in the Financial System: A Conversation with Fed Governor Lisa D. Cook, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran speaks at the American Investment Council General Counsel Day, New York, New York.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated discussion before the CFA Society of Indianapolis Annual Lunch and New Charterholder Ceremony.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives opening remarks before the"2025 Financial Stability Conference: Financial Stability in a Time of Rapid Economic and Technological Change" at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (November)/ PPI (October)/ Raw Materials Prices (October)

· USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (November)/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Existing Home Sales (October)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (November)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/19)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October & November)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October & November)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October & November)/ CB Leading Index (September & October)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (November)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Koeda gives a speech to local leaders in Niigata, Japan

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/15)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/15

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (November)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (October)

· India Infrastructure Output (October)

· Taiwan Export Orders (October)/ Current Account Q3

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 4th EU-Indo Pacific Ministerial Forum begins in Brussels and goes through Saturday.

· The European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (October)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/14)/ Central Government Debt (October)

· The European Central Bank holds a General Council Meeting/ Construction Output (September)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

· Italy Construction Output (September)

· Spain Balance of Trade (September)

· Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

· Greece Current Account (September)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (November)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Oman Inflation Rate (October)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tonga holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Business Confidence Q4/ Building Permits (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, November 21, 2025

Global

· The COP30 Summit, being held in Belem, Brazil, concludes.

· G7 Interior and Security Ministers are scheduled to meet in Ottawa.

· US oil sanctions on Russia are set to go into effect.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr gives welcoming remarks at the College Fed Challenge Finals, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on financial stability at the 2025 Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Financial Stability Conference, Cleveland, Ohio.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote address before the Annual Conference of the Central Bank of Chile.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated panel before the"SNB and its Watchers 2025" event.

· Mexico Economic Activity (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/21)

· Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey

· Argentina Economic Activity (September)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

· Peru Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Auto Guangzhou returns to the southern Chinese city, running through the end of the month. The annual automotive exhibition is expected to feature over 1,000 vehicles, more than half of which are either pure EVs or hybrids, from brands including Mercedes-Benz, Nio and Xiaomi. The event comes as total vehicle sales rose 12.4% to 27.68 million units in the first 10 months of the year, partly driven by exports.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (October)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Credit Card Spending (October)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

· Japan Inflation Rate (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

· Indonesia Current Account Q3/ M2 Money Supply (October)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/14)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-ASEAN Ministerial meeting takes place in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Frankfurt European Banking Congress, including speeches from ECB president Christine Lagarde and Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel.

· The European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and Q&A at the Foro Gran Via organized by Fundación BBK in Bilbao, Spain.

· The Karl Brunner Institute Swiss National Bank and its Watchers conference. Speakers include the Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Lorie Logan.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and Q&A at a meeting with Deusto Business School Alumni in Bilbao, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a fireside chat at the JP Morgan European Financials Conference in London, United Kingdom.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a roundtable organized by Österreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) in Vienna, Austria. Later, she gives the keynote speech in a session "The Future of Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Neutralized Monetary Policy, Fiscal Dominance and Unsustainable Debt Dynamics" at the European Meeting of the Trilateral Commission in Vienna, Austria.

· Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (October)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

· France Business Confidence (November)/ Business Climate Indicator (November)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (November)

The Global Week Ahead

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead