Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in South Africa, Trump Pushes Ukraine for a Decision on His Peace Deal, Washington Goes Quiet for Thanksgiving, But Will Publish Delayed Economic Data As EU CPIs Come Out

November 23 - 30, 2025

It is hard to believe we are already heading into Thanksgiving here in the US.   It will be a relatively quiet week, not only in the US (Congress is out again this week), but also internationally. 

But there are several important geopolitical events we are watching closely this week.  First, the G20 is meeting this weekend in South Africa.  The US decided to skip the entire meeting and not send any representatives – the first time the US has ever boycotted the G20.   The absence of the US limited the Summit's ability to achieve significant outcomes.   Interestingly, next year’s G20 meeting will be hosted by the US.

Also this week, President Trump’s controversial 28-point peace plan to end the Ukraine-Russia War is facing a tight deadline as Trump has demanded Ukraine give their decision on whether to accept it or not by Thursday.   The plan emerged following meetings between Russian and US officials (no EU officials were involved).  So far, there has been strong pushback from European leaders to Trump’s plan.  And Trump is expected to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday or Tuesday to hear his concerns.  So far, Trump has strongly criticized the European and Ukrainian arguments against his plan.

The plan, as laid out by Trump Special Envoy Steve Sitkoff, would require Ukraine to give up territory that Russia has not occupied.  We are watching for a significantly different counter-proposal to be presented by European leaders before Thursday. 

Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Venezuela continued to rise.  Several airlines have now halted flights to the country after heightened US military activity made such flights too risky.  As to what the Trump Administration is planning is still unclear.  Reports on Sunday suggest the US is preparing a massive media campaign (including airdrops of leaflets) urging Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro to leave the country immediately.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets are awaiting the release of delayed US economic reports (including September retail sales and durable goods orders). The reports were delayed due to the federal government shutdown. 

Also this week, the US Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday.  Then the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday.  The federal government and markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday will be an extremely quiet day for markets.  There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  And in Canada, we will see Q3 GDP numbers.

In Europe, Germany, France, and Italy will release their November CPIs on Friday.   Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Monday, and consumer confidence is out on Tuesday (as is France’s).   In the UK, the Chancellor, Christine Reeves, presents the Autumn Budget to Parliament.  There will be several European Central Bank (ECB) Board speeches this week, including one by ECB President Christine Lagarde.   Plus, the ECB releases minutes from its last meeting.

In Asia,  Japan publishes the November Tokyo CP this week, while Australia releases its October CPI. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week – we hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Global

·       The G20, being held in South Africa, concludes.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina holds early presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (September)               

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 24, 2025

Global

·        The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Gaza/Lebanon), followed by consultations.

·       The UN’s 14th Forum on Business and Human Rights begins in Geneva and online. The theme is accelerating action on business and human rights amid crises and transformation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

·       The U.S. designation of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization is due to take effect.

·       Canada's Newfoundland and Labrador province will hold a general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile PPI (October)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September & October)

·       Paraguay PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese financial markets and government are closed for the Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (October)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-African Union Summit takes place in Luanda, Angola through November 25.  On the sidelines of the Summit, the EU-Africa Business Forum takes place.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss EU-US and EU-China trade relations, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick scheduled to participate.

·       The Chair of the BBC, Dr Samir Shah, and Robbie Gibb, a non-executive member of the BBC board, face questions from Britain’s Member of Parliament on the Culture, Media and Sport Committee about editorial standards at the national broadcaster, following the selective editing of a Donald Trump speech by news program Panorama, which sparked a $1bn defamation threat from the US president and resulted in the resignations of the BBC director-general Tim Davie and BBC news chief Deborah Turness.

·       The Confederation of British Industry's annual meeting takes place in London.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases their report “Stablecoins on the rise: still small in the euro area, but spillover risks loom.”

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the  BratislavAI Forum on Artificial Intelligence and Education as part of OECD high-level event: 25th anniversary of "Better Policies for Better Lives" in Bratislava, Slovakia.

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a presentation at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ECB-NGFS workshop “Vanishing Nature, Rising Risk: a Central Banking and Supervisory Lens on Ecosystem Degradation” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (November)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (October)/ Employment Growth (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 25, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Libya. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Suriname Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)/ Current Account Q3

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Redbook (November/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September)/ House Price Index (September)/ Pending Home Sales (October)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (November)/ Money Supply (October)/ Business Inventories (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/21)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank hosts the 14th Asia Smart Cities Conference in Yokohama, Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Index (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Chile Joint Council meets in Brussels.

·       Today is the National Day of Bosnia & Herzegovina, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases its report “A Systemic risks in linkages between banks and the non-bank financial sector.”

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank of Ireland's Financial System Conference 2025 in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at the Climate Finance Week Ireland 2025 "Supervising Nature Risk: Regulation and Transition" organized by the United Nations Development Programme in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (October)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       France Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Spain PPI (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q3

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Global

·       The OECD launches its Environmental Outlook report, assessing efforts to tackle the “triple planetary crisis” of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (October)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (November)

·       USA Beige Book is published/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/21)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (November/15)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Chicago PMI (November)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/21)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (November/28)// Building Permits (September & October)/ Durable Goods Orders (October)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (September & October)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (September & October)/ Wholesale Inventories (September & October)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ New Home Sales (September & October)/ PCE Price Index (September & October)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (October)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (October)/ CPI (October)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (October)/ RBA Smith Speech

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Economic Index (September)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/14)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review is released.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an acceptance speech at the Transatlantikpreis ceremony 2025 at Steuben-Schurz-Gesellschaft in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the "Macro Outlook" session at conference on Global Market Insights: Navigating the new geopolitical environment organized by Santander CIB in Paris, France.

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2025

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 27, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations is closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Thanksgiving, a national holiday.  The Federal government and financial markets are closed.

·       St. Vincent and the Grenadines holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (November)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

·       Canada Current Account Q3/ Average Weekly Earnings (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to local leaders in Oita, Japan.

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q3/ ANZ Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q3/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q3/ Private Capital Expenditure Q3

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (October)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Malaysia PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Education and Youth) meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks  at the 24th CEDE Congress of Executives in Zaragoza, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates on a panel discussion at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates and speaks at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks at the Goodbody 18th annual conference in Ireland.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Economic Confidence Index (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)/                Economic Sentiment (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Industrial Sentiment (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (November)/ Services Sentiment (November)/ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Industrial Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (October)

·       Spain Business Confidence (November)

·       Russia GDP (September & October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV begins a historic visit to Turkey and Lebanon through December 2.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (October)

Friday, November 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Black Friday, the start of the US Christmas season holiday shopping rush.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October)/ Nominal Budget Balance (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Net Payrolls (October)

·       Chile Copper Production (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Fiscal Balance (October)

·       Canada GDP (September & October)/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Cement Production (October)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA Fed Balance Sheet (November/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Conference (November)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (October)/ Jobs/applications ratio (October)/ Tokyo CPI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/22)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Construction Orders (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Export Prices (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (October)/ Government Budget Value (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/14)/ Deposit Growth (November/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Culture and Sport) meets in Brussels.

·       The Institute for International Finance holds its European Banking Regulation & Supervision Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Today is Albania's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives keynote remarks at the 12th annual IIF Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Car Production (October)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (November)

·       Germany Retail Sales (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployed Change & Persons (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (November)/ Bavaria CPI (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (November)/ Hesse CPI (November)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (November)/ Saxony CPI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)/ Financial Stability Report

·       Hungary PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ KOF Leading Indicators (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (October)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)/ Jobseekers Total (October)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Current Account (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Greece Retail Sales (September)/ PPI (October)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Zimbabwe    Inflation Rate (November)

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, November 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Honduras General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Global

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       OPEC+ meet to discuss market conditions and production goals.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Honduras holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kyrgyzstan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Australia Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland holds a referendum on environmental responsibility.

·       Transnistria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Scotland celebrates St. Andrew’s Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.