The Global Week Ahead

The G7 Leaders’ Summit Convenes, US and Chinese Trade Negotiations Begin Yet Again, Trump’s Birthday Parade, Pope Leo’s First Address to the US, and China’s Inflation Figures

June 8 - 15, 2025

The big geopolitical event of the week is the G7 Leaders’ Summit being held in Alberta, Canada.  This will be President Trump’s first trip to Canada since being re-elected and since he placed tough tariffs on the country.   

The overall G7 agenda, as outlined by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, is to focus on several broad themes – “protecting our communities and the world, building energy security and accelerating digital transition, and securing the partnerships of the future.”  But the real focus will be trade and how to get to an end-game with the Trump tariff changes as well as discussing the opportunities and threats of AI. 

But a lot of other major action will be taking place at the Summit including a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump – the first meeting between the two leaders since their disastrous meeting at the White House on February 28th. 

On Monday, US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for talks with Chinese trade negotiators to try to and get trade talks back on track.   The meetings are the result of a telephone conversation between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week.  There had been a 90-day pause on Trump’s China tariffs but that quickly fell apart after the US added new guidance on preventing Chinese semiconductor chips to be sold in the US. 

Elsewhere this week, two big no-confidence votes are being held on Wednesday.  The first in Poland on the heels of last week’s presidential elections.  The Polish Parliament is likely to hold a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Donald Tusks government and there is a fairly good chance it will go through, forcing new parliamentary elections.  

Meanwhile, Israel’s opposition parties will try to force a no-confidence vote in a bid to force new elections and push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office.  Current polling suggest Netanyahu would lose if elections were held today as many voters appear unhappy with the ongoing Gaza war.  Additionally, two of Netanyahu’s coalition parties – both representing ultra-Orthodox voters – are threatening to withdraw their support unless there is a last-minute agreement giving an exemption to ultra-Orthodox men from military service.

Back in Washington, the US Senate will continue to work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill – as a number of House Republican members who voted for the measure are now publicly expressing regret as the bill is now expected to add as much as $4 trillion to the federal deficit.   But the big news was Elon Musk’s extraordinary public spat with President Trump which began when Musk tweeted out his disgust with the size and shape of OBBA and then went on to criticize Trump – and even call for his impeachment – for supporting the bill in its current format.   We expect the US Senate to move to change a number of market-sensitive provisions – including Section 899 which would allow Treasury to place retaliatory taxes on foreign companies as well as the state and local (SALT) provisions which the House raised to $40,000 but is facing a host of criticism from Republicans.  We continue to hold the view reaching a final deal on OBBA is going to take much longer than the Trump Administration is hoping for – July 4th is the stated goal – and is likely to be scaled back in order to get enough Republican support. 

And finally, this week will see two big events in the US this Saturday: President Trump’s birthday parade on Friday in Washington that will simultaneously celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US Army.   The parade will take place along Constitution Avenue in Washington.   The second big event will be in Chicago where newly elected Pope Leo XIV will address via video to a sold-out (40,000+) Rate Stadium  (where the Holy Father’s beloved White Sox play).  This will be the Holy Father’s first official address to the United States. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the big events of the coming week are – aside from the G7 Meeting – China’s trade data and inflation figures and the US’s May CPI print.

The US CPI is out on Wednesday and PPI is out on Friday – both of which will be an important indicator for how the Federal Reserve may move during the FMOC meeting the following week and the overall impact of the Trump tariffs since Liberation Day.  Also out in the US this week is the Univeristy of Michigan June consumer sentiment survey on Friday.  There are no Fed speeches this week as the Fed has gone into their “Blackout Period” in advance of the FMOC meeting.

In Europe, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be delivering the Spending Review to Parliament on Wednesday, revealing the spending priorities of  Prime Minister Starmer’s government.  It will include plans for spending more than £600 billion on public services – 1/5 of the total British economy.  In the EU this week, there are a large number of European Central Bank speeches including ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking in Beijing. 

Bringing it back to Asia, Japan releases the May Economy Watchers Survey on Monday and the PPI on Wednesday.   But markets are mostly focused on China’s inflation and trade figure releases on Monday to get a sense how deeply the Trump tariffs have impacted the economy. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Global

·       Today is Pentecost, a major feast in the Christian church marking the 50th day of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy is set to hold a Constitutional referendum and run-off elections for regional elective office through Monday.  The Constitutional referendum concerns changes to the law on the acquisition of Italian citizenship for foreign residents and repeals some provisions on employment as passed by the 2025 Jobs Act law.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the 2025 UN Ocean Conference Leaders dinner in Paris, France.  She will speak at the conference tomorrow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a panel discussion at the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference of Hrvatska Narodna Banka in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 9, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Ocean Conference begins in Nice, France and runs through June 13.  This is the first UN Ocean Conference since the 2022 conference in Lisbon (Portugal). It will also be the first conference since the historic Agreement on Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, also known as the High Seas Treaty.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through June 13.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for renewed trade talks with China. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead the Chinese delegation.

·       The Trump Administration’s response to a Federal Appeals Court regarding tariff authority is due to be filed.

·       President Trump’s travel ban on 12 countries goes into effect.  The countries include Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

·       Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will testify before the Federal Supreme Court in a case in which he is accused of plotting a coup in 2022. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve goes into its “Blackout” period in advance of the Open Market Committee meetings June 17-18. There are no speeches by any Fed Governors until after the meetings.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia celebrates the King’s Birthday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q1

·       Japan Current Account (April)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ Bank Lending (May)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (May)

·       China Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will receive NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in London.  Rutte He will also give a speech at Chatham House and visit Sheffield Forgemasters with the Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei visits Spain for bilateral talks.  Milei then travels on to Israel for meetings.

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov travels to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  They are expected to discuss preparations for the upcoming Eurasian Economic Forum on June 26027 in Minsk.

·       London Tech Week begin and runs through June 13. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       It is Whit Monday in Europe.  Financial markets in Germany, Norway, and Switzerland are closed.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech on the rule of law at the Italian Court in Rome, Italy.

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) followed by consultations. 

·       Today is the 90th anniversary of the founding of Alcoholics Anonymous.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds confirmation hearings for Jacob Helberg for undersecretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment; Andrew Puzder for U.S. ambassador to the European Union; Paul Kapur for assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs; and Benjamin Black for CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.

·       New Jersey holds its gubernatorial primary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (May)/ Redbook (June/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (May)

·       El Salvador PPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha through June 12.

·       Pakistan’s finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, will deliver a budget to parliament against the backdrop of the country’s IMF loan program.

·       The Bloomberg Invest Conference begins in Hong Kong and goes through June 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index/ NAB Business Confidence (May)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (May)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India in Brussels.

·       The Europlace Conference is being held in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at the Jacques Delors event "Matching savings and investments: The role of banks and capital markets in financing Europe’s future", in Berlin.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a presentation at the 2025 IIF European Chief Risk Officer Forum (virtual).

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s report on financial stability.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives a speech at the ECB Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (May)/ Claimant Count Change (May)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (April)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts 

·       Italy Industrial Production (April)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (April)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (May)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (May)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (April)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Argentine President Javier Milei in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (May)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican airline Aero México will likely see flight attendants go on strike for higher wages.

·       Bloomberg hosts its Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/06)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (May)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (April)

·       Canada Building Permits (April)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Congress holds hearing to present Articles of Impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte.  The lower house in February impeached Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, on accusations that included budget anomalies, amassing unusual wealth and an alleged threat to the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the first lady, and the House Speaker.

·       Malaysia will host the ASEAN Plus Three and East Asia Summits.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Japan PPI (May)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       India M3 Money Supply (May/30)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Polish lawmakers hold vote of confidence called by Prime Minister Donald Tusk after the defeat of a political ally in the June 1 presidential ballot with the election of Karol Nawrocki.

·       UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the Spending Review to Parliament.

·       The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin and runs through June 12.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations chair Carl Bildt, Congressional Leadership Fund former president Dan Conston and Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen are among the speakers at the two-day Brussels Forum 2025, which will focus on transatlantic political and economic issues

·       VivaTEch!, Europe’s largest startup and tech event, begins in Paris and runs through June 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a presentation at the People's Bank of China in Beijing, China.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote speech followed by fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2025 in Berlin, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote presentation at the 2025 Government Borrowers Forum in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollo gives a video message at the European Payments Council's General Assembly in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta gives a speech at the Bank of Finland and SUERF Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at the Global Investment Management Summit  in London.

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Construction Output (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Auto Production (May)/ Auto Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s opposition parties will seek to dissolve the Knesset in an effort to bring an early election.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition are threatening to leave over policies forcing conscription of ultra-Orthodox young men into the army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa's National Assembly is due to vote on the government's proposed fiscal framework, the first of three pieces of legislation to adopt the country's 2025 budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April)/ SACCI Business Confidence (May)

Thursday, June 12, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled in the morning to hold a briefing on Yemen, followed by consultations.  In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

·       World Bank President Ajay Banga will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appear in front of the House Armed Services Committee for a hearing on the Defense Department’s 2026 budget request.

·       Today is Chaco Armistice Day in Paraguay.  The public holiday commemorates the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (June/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/31)/ PPI (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/12)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/11)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (April)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (May)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan is expected to hold is annual Wanan Civil Defense Drills in the Kinmen Islands.

·       In Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Auto Expo begins and runs through Sunday. The event, organized by the mainland's China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, aims to help at drive the global expansion of the Chinese automotive industry, which is currently gripped by a brutal price war between electric vehicle manufacturers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (May)

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (June/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ RBA Jacobs Speech

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q1

·       India Inflation Rate (May)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss a general approach on a directive to harmonize certain aspects of insolvency law across the EU, protection of adults, and the fight against impunity (dealing with Russia war crimes).

·       The International Energy Administration holds a two-day conference on global energy efficiency in Brussels.

·       Today is Russia Day in Russia.  The national holiday originally celebrated the fall of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union.  But its meaning has now been shifted by President Putin to celebrating the country’s modernization.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a  keynote speech at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel visits and speaks at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.  Later in the day, Schnabel will moderate a panel entitled “Funding the future: Strategies for supporting innovation and growth” at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a keynote speech at the IMF-WB annual high-level Conference for Senior Supervisors in Washington, DC.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (May)/ GDP (April)/ Goods Trade Balance (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (May)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/06)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (April)/ Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q1/ Manufacturing Sales (April)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)/ Wholesale Sales (April)

·       USA Michigan Current Conditions Prel (June)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectation/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (May)

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tokyo, Japan, campaigning for Tokyo’s metropolitan assembly elections being held on June 22 begin.  The race is seen as a key political test for Prime Minister Ishida in advance of Japan’s upper house elections later this summer.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (May)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (April)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Industrial Production (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (April)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss IT infrastructure, the Schengen report, migration issues, and EU internal security.

·       The 2025 Paris Air Forum will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Romania Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Hungary Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (April)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (April)/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Elderson Speech

·       Greece Construction Output Q1

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (April)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Global

·       Today is Eid-e-Chadir, celebrated by Shia Muslims on the 18th day of the Islamic month of Dhul Hijjah, the final month of the lunar based Muslim calendar.  The religious holiday is named after the event in which Shia Muslims believe that the cousin of the Prophet Muhammad, Ali ibn Abi Talib, was appointed as a leader and religious authority after the Prophet.

·       Pope Leo XIV will speak virtually at a youth event being held at White Sox Stadium in Chicago.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating when in 1982 the Island was liberated from Argentinian occupation.

·       Today is President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday.  The day will be celebrated with a large military parade which will also celebrate the US Army’s 250 anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Alberta, Canada and goes through June 17.  In advance of the meeting, the 50th G7 meeting, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is chairing the Summit, announced the priorities for the meeting will include: “1) Protecting our communities and the world—strengthening peace and security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, and improving joint responses to wildfires. 2) Building energy security and accelerating the digital transition—fortifying critical mineral supply chains and using artificial intelligence and quantum to unleash economic growth, and 3) Securing the partnerships of the future—catalyzing enormous private investment to build stronger infrastructure, create higher-paying jobs, and open dynamic markets where businesses can compete and succeed.

·       It is Father’s Day, celebrated globally. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agricultural Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Major Elections Dominate the Week Ahead, the US Pushes Asian Allies to Ramp Up Defense Spending to 5% of GDP,  the US Senate Takes Up the Reconciliation Bill, and the ECB Decides Rates

Major elections dominate the geopolitical calendar this week.  First, Poland is holding important presidential run-off elections.  At the time of this writing, the race is too close to call, but it appears conservative historian Karol Nawrocki is slightly ahead, and official results are expected to be announced Monday.  If Nawrocki wins, it will be seen as a defeat for both the current ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the European Union, as Nawrocki is perceived as an EU skeptic. 

Also happening on Sunday, Mexico is voting for its judiciary for the first time.  More than 2,600 federal, state, and local court seats are being voted on, moving the country away from an appointment-based system. It also makes Mexico the only country in the world to elect all its judges.  The move to an elected judiciary was championed by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrad (AMLO) and his successor, President Claudia Sheinbaum. Proponents say it will rid corruption from the judiciary, while critics argue it will politicize the judiciary and allow drug cartels to further influence judges.

The third big election this week is in South Korea, where voters will select a new president following the recent impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who tried to seize control by declaring martial law six months ago.  The South Korean political system has been chaotic ever since, but voters appear to be leaning toward electing left-wing Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung.   With the economy experiencing slower growth, the election will likely result in a seismic political and economic change in the months ahead.

We would note US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s speech at the Shangri-la Security Conference this past week.  Hegseth made headlines by saying a potential invasion of Taiwan by China is more likely than ever before.  He also called on US allies in Asia to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP.   He also formally requested that Australia immediately raise its defense spending to 3.5% from the current rate, which is putting the country on track to hit 2.4% by 2030.

In Turkey on Tuesday, low-level meetings between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats are scheduled to take place.  No breakthroughs are expected despite President Donald Trump’s urging Russia to end the war immediately.  The meeting will take place in advance of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group – made up of NATO defense ministers – meeting in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss how to further support Ukraine. 

Also in Europe this week, the European Commission is scheduled to release a report recommending that Bulgaria adopt the Euro by 2026, further integrating the nation into the European Union.  

Moving to the US, Congress returns from their week-long Memorial Day recess, and the US Senate will begin debating President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which was passed by the House of Representatives ten days ago. 

The House bill is estimated to cost $2.5 trillion over the next ten years. But with new estimates suggesting the House version of the bill will actually add $3.8 trillion to the US deficit and Moody’s recent downgrade of US debt, senators are privately suggesting they intend to significantly cut the size of the package while wrestling over whether to include major tax provisions such as Section 899 which is seen as a revenge tax on foreign countries the US deems have “unfair” tax policies that discriminate against US businesses and investor.  Foreign investment firms operating in the US have already swung into action, lobbying furiously against the provision, saying if the provision is included in a final bill, it will drive them out of the US. 

Currently, by our count, there are at least five Republican senators prepared to vote against the current version of the overall package, enough to block the bill from moving forward.  We expect weeks, if not months, of negotiations between Senate Republicans, President Trump, and House Republicans as they attempt to finalize a comprehensive agreement.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the European Central Bank (ECB) meets this week to consider interest rates. Market consensus suggests the ECB will cut rates another 25 basis points, bringing rates down 2%.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone reports May CPI prints on Tuesday while Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and their trade balance.  France also reports industrial production and their trade balance this week, too. 

Turning to Asia, Japan will be releasing wage data and the Q1 Ministry of Finance Corporate Survey.  China releases May PMIs and the Caixin indices this week. 

And bringing it back to the US, jobs reports are out Friday after the JOLTS report comes out Tuesday and the ADP report comes out on Wednesday.  Also, this week, May ISMs (manufacturing and services) are out.  And markets are going to be listening to Fed Chair Jay Powell when he gives remarks Monday at the Fed’s 75th International Finance Conference, following Powell’s face-to-face meeting with President Trump this past week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 01, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meeting takes place to review market conditions and oil prices.

·       Today is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.  It is also the official first day of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico holds judicial elections. Voters for the first time will vote to elect all nine members of the Supreme Court, tow magistrates of the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, 15 magistrates of the Regional Chambers of Electoral Tribunal, five members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal, 464 circuit court magistrates, and 386 district court judges.   The vote comes after a highly controversial law was passed in 2024 by the Mexican parliament to move to judicial elections.  Critics argue the law politicizes the judicial system and opens the door to massive corruption and influence by the drug cartels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference: Structural Shifts and Monetary Policy, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the second round of presidential elections.

·       Croatia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madaraka Day, celebrating the Republic of Kenya and when it gained self-rule in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 2, 2025

Global

·       At the UN, there will be a Plenary Meeting of the General Assembly for the Election of the President of the General Assembly for its Eightieth Session.  Former German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is the leading contender for the post.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney joins the elected heads of the countries’ provinces at the Meeting of First Ministers in Saskatoon.

·       The US Congress returns from a week off for Memorial Day. The US Senate will begin considering the Reconciliation bill (tax and 2025 budget) passed two weeks ago by the House of Representatives.

·       The US-China de minimus rate is set to increase to 54 percent.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        The Federal Reserve’s 75th Anniversary International Finance Conference will be held at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.   Fed Chair Jay Powell will give opening remarks at 1:00 p.m.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Peter McColough Series on International Economics: A Conversation With Lisa D. Cook in New York.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in moderated conversation before the Eleventh District Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Quad Cities Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates the Dragon Boat Festival. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May)/ Commodity Prices (May)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (May)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q1/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-US justice and Home Affairs Ministerial meeting begins in Warsaw, Poland and runs through Wednesday.

·       The UK Government will publish its strategic defense review.  Defense Minister John Healy has said the report will “send a message to Moscow” over Russia’s aggression not only against Ukraine but other western nations including cyber-attacks on the UK military networks.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Vilnius, Lithuania and participate in the Vilnius Summit with B9 (Baltic 9) and Nordic countries.

·       The UK observes the June Bank Holiday -formerly known as White Monday.  Banks and markets are closed.

·       The 9th Annual Austrian World Summit begins in Vienna, Austria. The event is organized by the Schwarzenegger Climate Initiative, a body created by the Austrian-American actor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at the Conférence - REF 157: "Femmes et finance" organized by Association Europe-Finances-Régulations in Paris, France.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann joins a fireside chat at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors 75th International Finance Anniversary Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)/ New Car Sales (May)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (May)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ Mortgage Lending and Approvals (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Net Lending to Individuals (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Global

·       At the UN, there will be a plenary meeting for the election of non-permanent members of the Security Council.  This includes two seats from Africa (DRC and Liberia), one from Asia (Bahrain), one from Latin America, and one from Eastern Europe (Latvia or Montenegro).

·       The 11th BRICS Parliamentary Forum will be held through Thursday at the Congresso Nacional in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Ministerial Council meets in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. and Japanese trade envoys may hold their fifth round of trade talks on the sidelines of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Ministerial Council in Paris, France, through June 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Corridor Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before a Fed Listens roundtable with El Paso community leaders.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/31)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (April)/ Factory Orders (April)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (June)/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Fed Logan Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/30)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea holds presidential elections.  The snap elections were called after six months of confusing and often chaotic rule following the impeachment of then-President Yoon Suk Yeol after he declared martial law.   Polls show left-wing candidate Lee Jae-myung has a comfortable lead to become the next president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech at the Naigai Josei Chosa Kai meeting in Japan.

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will speak at the Society of Monetary Economics in Tokyo.

·       Sarah Hunter, assistant governor (economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia gives a keynote speech at the Economic Society of Australia Queensland Business Lunch in Brisbane.

·       New Zealand Import Prices Q1/ Export Prices Q1/ Terms of Trade Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes/ Current Account Q1/ Company Gross Profits Q1/ Business Inventories Q1/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q1

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian and Ukrainian delegations are expected to meet in Istanbul, Turkey.

·        Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Rome, Italy. 

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergie Lavrov hosts the Government Commission on Compatriots Living Abroad (GCCLA) meeting in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden and rate-setters Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra will appear in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Romania PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)

·       France Budget Balance (April)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q1

·       Spain Unemployment Change (May)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ CPI Flash (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria is expected to re-open its stock market.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

·       Jordan PPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Global

·       At the UN,  there will be a Plenary Meeting of the General Assembly for the Election of members of the Economic and Social Council.

·       The BRICS Counter Terrorism Working Group meets in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       The Hajj Pilgrimage begins in Saudi Arabia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd Round of the US – Cambodia trade talks take place in Washington, D.C.

·       The Bloomberg Tech Summit takes place in San Francisco, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book.

·       The Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates and subsequent press conference.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome and closing remarks before a Fed Listens event, “How Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Conditions Affect Individuals and Businesses"

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/30)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (May/30)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q1/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Colombia Exports (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 26th Anniversary of the deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (May)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Chain Price Index Q1/ GDP Consumption Q1/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish a report recommending Bulgaria be allowed to adopt the Euro.

·       The 9th Meeting of the EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council takes place in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the 2025 Harvard Law School/Program on International Financial Systems Europe-U.S. Symposium in Madrid, Spain.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       A Turkish Commission of the ruling Justice and Development Party begins drafting a new constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)/ Business Confidence Q2

Thursday, June 5, 2025

Global

·       The World Energy Investment 2025 report is published by the International Energy Agency.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon in New York.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeff Schmid speaks on banking policy at an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed.

·       Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki speaks at C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/31)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/05)/Fed Balance Sheet (June/04)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (May)

·       Colombia PPI (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The India-Central Asia Business Forum begins in New Delhi, India.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at European Forum of Deposit Insurers (EFDI) International Conference “Embracing the Future on Solid Grounds: Reinforcing Financial Stability” in Madrid, Spain.

·       South Korea Current Account (April)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (May)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (April)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (May)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers (the Ukraine Defense Contact Group) will meet in Brussels to discuss the current situation in Ukraine.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport & Telecommunications) meets in Brussels through June 6.

§  The CBI National Business Dinner is held in London, traditionally addressed by a senior member of the government

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank meets to decide interest rates and press conference.

·       The ECONDAT 2025 spring meeting, hosted by the Bank of England, begins its two-day spring meeting at King’s College London. The conference brings together central bankers and researchers will gather to discuss the economics involved in non-traditional data and analytical tools.

·       OE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks on a webinar hosted by Odgers. The webinar is titled “H2 economic trends.”

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Germany Factory Orders (April)/ HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ PPI (April)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Marginal Lending Rate/

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (May)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

·       Ireland Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GNP Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Serbia PPI (May)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/30)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burundi holds parliamentary and local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q1

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (May)

Friday, June 6, 2025

Global

·       Eid al-Adha, the second of the two main festivals in Islam, begins this evening. Celebrations and observances are generally carried forward to the three following days, known as the Tashreeq days.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) travels to France through June 7 for a State Visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (April)/ Car Production (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (May)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Government and Manufacturing and Nonfarm Payrolls (May)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)/ Used Car Prices (May)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (May)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Japanese startup space company, ispace, will make a second attempt at a soft landing on the moon, aiming to become the first Asian private company to achieve such a feat. Its first attempt, in April 2023, ended with the lander crashing into the lunar surface..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (April)/ Coincident Index Prel (April)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Consumer Confidence Q1/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Australia Building Permits (April)/ Private House Approvals (April)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (May/23)/ Deposit Growth (May/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/30)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Centeno speaks about the outlook for the Portuguese economy in Lisbon.

· European Central Bank Board Member Robert Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s updated forecasts.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Machado Speech/ Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Saturday, June 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is scheduled to visit Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He will also attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum as a keynote speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to visit Monaco for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at the Blue Economy & Finance Forum in Monaco.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference of Hravtska Narodna Banka in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Global

·       Today is Pentecost, a major feast in the Christian church marking the 50th day of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy is set to hold a Constitutional referendum and run-off elections for regional elective office through Monday.  The Constitutional referendum concerns changes to the law on the acquisition of Italian citizenship for foreign residents and repeals some provision on employment as passed by a 2025 Jobs Act law.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Poland’s Holds Presidential Run-Off Election, Canada’s New Parliament Convenes, President Trump Bashes President Putin and Holds Off On EU Tariffs, and Markets Look Toward FOMC Minutes and Key Inflation Data

May 25 - June 1, 2025

It may be Memorial Day in the US and a Bank Holiday in the UK, but the otherwise shortened week is still going to be a very busy one. 

First, we would point to the upcoming Polish Presidential run-off elections this coming Sunday.  Polls are extremely close, and the two candidates have very different outlooks for the future of Poland.  Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki is facing off against pro-EU Warsaw May Rafal Trzaskowski who won a narrow victory in the first round.  2/5th of voters who voted for other candidates will decide the race which is seen as being important not only for Poland but for the EU.  Nawrocki opposes Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda, which is strongly pro-EU and if he wins, it could cause the collapse of the Tusk coalition government.

Also this week, the new Canadian Parliament and governing coalition of Prime Minister Mark Carney begins.  The Parliament will convene with a historic – first time in more than 50 years – address by the reigning British Monarch, King Charles.  The King’s message is seen as being aimed as much at President Trump as Canada and will likely be an appeal for unity.

Here in the U.S., Congress is out of session this week for the Memorial Day holiday, but Washington will still be quite busy.  President Trump surprised many with withering criticism on Sunday of Russian President Vladimir Putin for massive new attacks on Ukraine.  Trump called Putin “crazy” and renewed calls for a ceasefire, or he would impose tough new sanctions on Russia. 

Meanwhile on the trade front, President Trump, after a phone call with European Union President Ursula von der Leyden, said he would hold off on new 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9th, citing “a very good conversation.”  

Meanwhile, Japanese negotiators will be meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week to try to hammer out a deal.  Markets were surprised on Friday when President Trump announced his support for Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel – which he previously had opposed.  But no one knows the details of the deal and how it will be structured other than President Trump calling it “a partnership” in a Truth Social posting.

Adding to the U.S.-Japan trade talks was the surprise proposal by SoftBank Founder Masayoshi Son for the creation of a joint U.S.-Japan sovereign wealth fund to make large investments in tech and infrastructure in the U.S.  This may be an early indicator of not only where a trade deal may come out but also go in some way to the structure of the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal.

Asia is going to have a busy week with three big events taking place this week.  First, ASEAN leaders will gather in Malaysia to talk about U.S. tariffs and the future of trade and security in the region.  Second, the Shangri-la Dialogue – a large security conference – is being held in Singapore.  Military leaders and defense ministers – including U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth – will be attend.  Hegseth’s speech will likely be an important marker for the future of U.S. security policy in the region.

The third big event is French President Emmanual Macron’s tour of the region starting with a visit to Vietnam and then on to Indonesia and Singapore.  The visit is seen as both France’s and the EU’s increased engagement and focus on Asia and Asian security.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, in the US markets are focused on the PCE print on Friday as an indicator of where inflation is headed and how the Federal Reserve will respond.  Also out this week are trade figures on Friday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday and durable goods orders on Tuesday.  Also out this week is the Fed’s Open Market Meeting minutes.

In Europe, CPI prints are the big news of the week.  Germany, Italy, and Spain all report CPI on Friday.  Consumer confidence indices are out in Germany this week, too.  

Turning to Asia, markets are looking at the Japan’s CPI figures being released this week as well as consumer confidence figures on Thursday.  And China’s industrial profit figures are out this week, as well. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Global

·       The World Health Assembly will convene its 78th session in Geneva, Switzerland, through May 27.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Venezuela, parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled to be held.  However, the elections are widely anticipated to be rigged to keep the regime of President Maduro further entrenched in power.

·       The International Chamber of Commerce arbitration hearing is held today to decide a dispute between ExxonMobil and Chevron over ownership of an enormous oil project in Guyana’s Stakbroek oilfield.  The value of the project is estimated to be as much as $1 trillion.

·       Suriname holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Baccalaureate speech at the Princeton University graduation.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Kuala Lumpur.

·       French President Emmanual Macron begins his Southeast Asia tour, arriving in Vietnam on Sunday evening. Macron is scheduled to meet with Communist Party Chief To Lam and President Luong Cuong and witness a signing ceremony for bilateral agreements. He will then go to Jakarta to meet with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, followed by a trip to Singapore to deliver a keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, will take part in the 2025 Spring Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NPA) in Dayton, United States..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day – a national holiday – marking the day on the Hebrew calendar when the city was unified under Israeli rule after the 1967 War.

·       Iraq's electoral commission will open registration ahead of the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 26, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 4th Working Group Meeting on new and Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency meets in Tehran, Iran through May 28.

·       Today is an official holiday at the United Nations.  The Headquarters are closed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guyana Independence  Day, celebrating when the country declared its independence from Great Britain in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Summit begins in Malaysia and runs through Wednesday.  Southeast Asian leaders will seek to strengthen the bloc's role as a stabilizing force in the region and address the situation in Myanmar. Following this, Malaysia – which is chairing this year’s Summit - will host the inaugural ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council-China Summit, where leaders are expected to address growing U.S. tariff pressures, deepening geopolitical rifts and regional crises..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (April)/ New Car Sales (April)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (March)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (April)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with Nordic prime ministers in southwest Finland.

·       Nicușor Dan, Romania’s president-elect, is expected to be sworn in at a ceremony in the nation’s parliament building in Bucharest.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  The ministers are expected to discuss the US tariff situation.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.  The meeting is the first the first one for the high representative Kaja Kallas, will dedicate the first session to financing for development.

·       Ministers will meet one month prior to the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4), scheduled for 30 June – 3 July 2025 in Seville, Spain. This conference will focus on new and emerging issues, the pressing need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the ongoing reform of the international financial system.  The Council will also address EU-Africa relations as a follow-up to the 3rd EU-African Union ministerial meeting on May 22.

·       Today is Georgia Independence Day, celebrating when the country broke free from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in "Spotlight on Christine Lagarde: Europe's Role in a Fragmented World" event organized by Hertie School/Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

·       Spain PPI (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif will visit Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan through May 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Composite Economic Index (April)/ Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Development Bank’s annual meetings take place in Abidjan, with a new president due to be announced on Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold elections to fill the vacancy in the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

·       in Copenhagen, Denmark, the Sixth Global Climate and SDG Synergies Conference will be co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) and UNFCCC. Hosted by the Government of Denmark, the conference will continue until 28 May.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       King Charles addresses the state opening of parliament in Ottawa, the first time a ruling monarch has conducted this duty in person in 50 years.

·       Today is Memorial Day in the United States.  Financial markets are closed, and the US Congress is out of session this week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari speaks and participates in a policy panel before the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in moderated discussion panel before the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will be interviewed on Bloomberg Television.

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be hosting 11 of his counterparts from China-friendly Pacific countries in Xiamen for the third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers' Meeting (as Beijing aims to bolster its relationships with Pacific nations and deepen its influence in the region. This marks the first in-person gathering of its kind in China, following an online meeting and another held in Suva, Fiji.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the carbon border adjustment mechanism and preparations for the June European Council, and an Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary (the Treaty on European Union’s Article 7 allows the suspension of certain rights from a member state.  The EU Commission has demanded that Hungary withdraw a draft transparency law aimed at limiting foreign funding of NGO’s and media organizations in the country. The EU is now taking up Article 7 against Hungary to try and force the issue).  The Council will also take up Spain’s request to include Catalan, Basque, and Galician in regulation No 1/1958 which governs the EU’s language regime. 

·       Today is the Late May Bank Holiday in the UK.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (April)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/ Jobseekers Total (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Hauser Speech/ CBI Distributive Trades (May)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Consumer Confidence Final (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Selling Price Expectations (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q1

·       Spain Business Confidence (May)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will visit Oman through May 28.  It is expected they will discuss the ongoing nuclear talks with the U.S. as well as other regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Global

·       The joint OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial monitoring committee meeting takes place in Vienna.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations.

·       The BRIC High Level Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Development meets in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       The BRICS 2nd Rapid Security Channel Meeting takes place at the Central Bank of Brazil in Sao Paolo, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the end of the wind-down period for Chevron’s and other western oil companies to drill for oil in Venezuela.

·       U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance speaks at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas.

·       EU President António Costa meets with Brazilian President Lula in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       Unions in Colombia are set to go on strike through May 29 over a government sponsored labor referendum.

·       The Caribbean Island of St. Martin celebrates Abolition Day, marking when slavery was abolished in 1848.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve’s FMOC Minutes Released

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation and Q&A at Keio University.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/23)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/23)/ Redbook (May/24)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/23)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (April)

·       Brazil Net Payrolls (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will launch the Tianwen-2 asteroid sampling mission.

·       Today is the Founding of the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (May)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q1/ Monthly CPI Indicator (April)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Malaysia PPI (April)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan in Moscow.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Annual Economics Conference 2025 in Vienna, Austria.

·       Germany Import Prices (April)/ Unemployment Rate and Change (May)/ Unemployed Persons (May)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Household Consumption (April)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ PPI (April)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Russia Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 600th day since of the Hamas-Israel Conflict after Hamas launched its attack on civilians in Israel on October 7, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Tax Symposium takes place in Kigali.

·       The Africa Internet Governance Forum will take place in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania through May 31.

·       Today is national Day of Ethiopia, celebrating when the military regime of Megishu Haile Mariam was ended in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, May 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on South Sudan sanctions and on Libya. This will be followed by consultations on 1718 Committee.

·       Today is Ascencion Day in the Christian world, marking 40 days after Easter and the Ascension of Jesus into Heaven.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governors Adriana Kugler gives a speech at the 5th Annual Federal Reserve Board Macro-Finance Workshop (Virtual)

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a fireside chat before the Housing Partnership Network.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the Oakland Rotary Club.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks and participates in moderated conversation before the Greater Waco Member Appreciation event.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Mackinac Policy Conference hosted by the Detroit Regional Chamber.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (March)/ Current Account Q1

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Corporate Profits Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/24)/ PCE Prices Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Q1/ Pending Home Sales (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/23)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/29)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/23)/ Fed Kugler Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/28)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nikkei will host the 30th Future of Asia forum, its flagship annual conference, in Tokyo over two consecutive days. This year's main theme is "Asia's challenge in a turbulent world." Political leaders set to attend the event include Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, Chief Adviser of Bangladesh Muhammad Yunus, Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith and Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr.

·       Early voting begins in South Korea in advance of the June 3 snap elections for president. Voters will be choosing a replacement for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/24)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/24)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (May)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q1/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q1/ Private Capital Expenditure Q1

·       Singapore Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (April)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Spain Retail Sales (April)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/23)

·       Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ Industrial Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (April)

Friday, May 30, 2025

Global

·       Today is the International Day of the Potato.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The third round of U.S.-Japan trade talks will commence in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in panel before virtual Reagan National Economic Forum.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Council for Economic Education's 2025 National Economics Challenge.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before “The Interview Show with Mark Bazer"

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)/ Fiscal Balance (April)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1/ Budget Balance (March)

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (April)/ Personal Income and Spending (April)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ PCE Price Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (April)/ Wholesale Inventories (April)/ Chicago PMI (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/30)

·       Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Cement Production (April)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shangri-la Dialogue, sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, begins in Singapore.  The conference hosts top military brass from around the world, which will stretch over the weekend, with issues ranging from the Ukraine war to Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip set to be discussed at the conference.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will attend and speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ Building Permits (April)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (April)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo Core CPI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Australia Building Permits (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Housing Credit (April)/ Private House Approvals (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (April)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption and Investment (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/23) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (April)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

·       Germany Retail Sales (April)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Hungary PPI (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Financial Stability Report

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies and Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Greece PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Total Credit (April)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Ukraine Current Account (April)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Poland Presidential Election - 2nd round

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 01, 2025 

Global

·       OPEC+ meeting takes place to review market conditions and oil prices.

·       Today is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico holds judicial elections. Voters for the first time will vote to elect all nine members of the Supreme Court, tow magistrates of the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, 15 magistrates of the Regional Chambers of Electoral Tribunal, 5 members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal, 464 circuit court magistrates, and 386 district court judges.   The vote comes after a highly controversial law was passed in 2024 by the Mexican parliament to move to judicial elections.  Critics argue the law politicizes the judicial system and opens the door to massive corruption and influence to the drug cartels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madaraka Day, celebrating the Republic of Kenya and when it gained self-rule in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trade Talks and the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting Dominate the Week, Trump to Speak to Putin Again on Ukraine Ceasefire, and More Trade Negotiations in Washington This Week

May 18 - 25, 2025

Trade will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week, both in the US and in Europe.  First, markets will watch closely as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer holds a high-stakes summit with EU leaders in London on Monday, focused on improving trade as well as locking in ways to work together on mutual defense development.  Ultimately, the talks are a shift back from Brexit and, if successful, will be the third major trade deal locked in by Starmer in a month (the other two being with India and the US).

In the US, senior trade officials from India and Japan will be meeting with senior Trump trade officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an effort to reach new trade agreements.  For the Japanese, this coming week is important for another reason:  The US Treasury Department’s Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is expected to present President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent with a new review of Nippon Steel’s $15 billion bid for US Steel, a deal blocked by then-President Joe Biden and initially opposed by then-candidate Donald Trump.  However, since then, Trump has said he is open to finding a deal for Nippon Steel to own a large–but–not–controlling stake in US Steel.

Sticking with trade for a moment, the other big talks this week come with the visit of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for meetings with President Trump.  The primary purpose of the meeting is an attempt to reset the relationship between the two countries, which have soured in recent months.  But both leaders will discuss trade (trade between the US and South Africa came in at $21 billion in 2024).  However, the Trump Administration has vocally condemned South Africa’s land reform policy and efforts to get the International Court of Justice to bring war crime charges against Israel.   Last week, a group of white South Africans were granted refugee status in the US by the Trump Administration. 

We will be watching closely for the read-out of President Trump’s expected telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week.  Trump, who is reportedly getting frustrated with Putin’s lack of seriousness about moving toward a cease-fire in Ukraine, is expected to press the Russian president to move on a deal.  However, Russian officials in Moscow are letting it be known in advance of the call that Putin is going to present a new list of demands to Trump for a cease-fire to be considered – a move that is likely to further frustrate Trump.

Turning to Europe, EU foreign ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss Israel and Gaza.  Specifically, EU trade ties with Israel are being reviewed as there has been a free trade agreement (FTA) in place for more than 25 years that requires Israel to respect “human rights and democratic principles” – something the Netherlands is asking the EU to review due to ongoing military action in Gaza. 

Also, there was an important election in Europe this weekend: Romania held a run-off election between centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan and right-wing/pro-Russia nationalist George Simion.  Simion spoke of ending support for Ukraine and opposing NATO support for Ukraine and for confronting Russian aggression in general.  As of late Sunday night, it appears Dan has won a surprise victory.

We will be watching elections this coming week in Venezuela and Suriname.  By all appearances, the parliamentary elections being held in Venezuela next Sunday are already rigged to further entrench dictator Nicholas Maduro and his regime in power.  Opposition leader Maria Conrina Machado has called for a boycott by voters.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big event is the G& finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Banff, Canada.  Trade and tariffs are set to be the primary agenda item.  But support for Ukraine will also be up there as a major issue, too.

In terms of major reports this week, markets are anxiously watching for Thursday’s release of global flash PMIs to get a fuller sense of the impact of the Trump tariffs on manufacturing globally.

Also, next week, central banks and central bank governors will be busy.  The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Tuesday.  There are a slew of central bankers giving speeches in the US and elsewhere, and we will be hearing from central bank chiefs at the G7 meetings.  The European Central Bank releases minutes from their April meeting, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds their annual financial markets conference Monday through Wednesday, and there will be a number of US regional Fed presidents speaking there, too.

Other major data reports out this week include the UK inflation print, Germany’s Ifo survey, and France’s business confidence index. 

In Asia, China releases its April industrial production and retail sales on Monday, while Japan’s trade balance is out on Wednesday, and the national CPI is out on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week: 

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       House Republicans seek to find agreement tonight on the Reconciliation bill in order to bring it to floor for a vote this coming week before the Memorial Day recess week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23.

·       The IMF Middle East and north Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Q1 GDP.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 19, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will gather in Banff, Canada, for meetings through Thursday.

·       The 78th World Health Assembly begins in Geneva and runs through May 27.

·       The BRICS Energy Ministerial Meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over efforts to end the Ukraine War.  Putin is expected to deliver a new set of demands to Trump as conditions for a ceasefire.

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will visit the United States through May 22 for meetings with President Trump.  Ramaphosa and Trump are seeking to reset the US-South African relationship as well as negotiate a trade deal.

·       US-Japan trade negotiators meet again seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

·       US-Indian trade negotiators meet in Washington seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the US economic outlook at the Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary and Capital Markets Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives prepared remarks during “Policy Session 2: The Increasing Role of Nonbank Institutions in the Treasury and Money Markets" at the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       USA Fed Bostic Speech/ / CB Leading Index (April)/ Fed Logan Speech/ Fed Kashkari Speech

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (March)/ Imports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will conduct live-fire drills off the coast of Hong Kong through May 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (April)/ PPI Input & Output Q1

·       China House Price Index (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister hosts the UK-EU Summit in London.  Britain is hoping to reset a deal with the EU would boost defense and security cooperation, mutual immigration issues, and food regulation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors convenes in Banff, Canada.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives the commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony (Virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on growth in rural communities before the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome back remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in a moderated conversation before the Economic Club of Minnesota.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack give keynotes, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/17)/ / Fed Collins Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Computex Taipei, one of the biggest tech events in the world, begins in Taipei.

·       China may conduct military drills around Taiwan surrounding the one-year anniversary of President William Lai coming to office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (May)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q1/ Loan Growth (April)/ Infrastructure Output (April)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Belgium, EU foreign and defense ministers – the Foreign Affairs Council and Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) – will gather to meet in Brussles to discuss mutual security issues and the status of the Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Warsaw through May 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Barclays briefing in London.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at The Association for Financial Markets in Europe's 5th Annual European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded video interview during AsVis Sustainable Development Festival.

·        

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at BPFI National Banking Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Germany PPI (April)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ Central Government Debt (April)

·       Euro Area Current Account (March)/ Construction Output (March)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q1/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (March)/ Current Account (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar will host the fifth Qatar Economic Forum in Doha through May 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       South Africa National Budget

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Global

·       G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in Banff, Canada.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency releases its Global Critical Minerals Outlook report.

·       The BRICS Trade Ministers meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is expected to issue a new report of their review of Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel.  The deal, which was blocked by former U.S. President Joe Biden, had been under review after Trump ordered a reexamination. After the committee's recommendation, Trump has 15 days to make a decision on the deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a “Fed Listens" event as part of the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/16)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/16)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (March)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (March)/ Leading Indicator (April)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Credit Card Spending (April)/ Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (May)/ Lending Facility Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 60th meeting of the European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The 3rd EU-African Union ministerial meeting begins in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates as a discussant at JEEA-FBBVA Lecture on "Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy" in Madrid, Spain.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Price Index (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Financial Stability Review/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece Current Account (March)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump due to hold a gala dinner for the top 220 holders of the Trump meme coin at the Trump National Golf Club just outside Washington in Northern Virginia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before Monetary Policy Implementation Workshop: “Unwinding Large Central Bank Balance Sheets" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       Mexico Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/17)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/16)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (May)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/21)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand’s Finance Minister Nicola Willis introduces the government’s new budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi will give a speech at a meeting of local business leaders in Miyazaki, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Machinery Orders (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/17)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ BOJ Noguchi Speech

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels.

·       In Spain, the Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum opens in Madrid. The two-day event will be hosted by Spanish Senate president Pedro Rollán Ojeda.

·       In Belgium, the Brussels Economic Forum will be held. Speakers include Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU commissioner for economy and productivity and for implementation and simplification; Renault chief Luca de Meo; and Electrolux chief Yannick Fierling.

·       The 5th Accession Conference in Albania will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank releases minutes from their last rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 6th International Forum Expansión “The future is decided aquí - Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics, and Technology” in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives the dinner speech at the Naturalis Biodiversity Center on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Chief  Economist Huw Pill gives keynote speech at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Annual Economics Conference 2025, titled ‘Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts’, in Vienna.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)/ BoE Dhingra Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

·       France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the international Anatolian Phoenix exercise at the 3rd Main Jet Base Command in Konya, Turkey.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (March)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference, cosponsored by New York University's Graduate School of Arts and Science, New York University's Stern School of Business, and the University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute (Virtual)

·       Chile PPI (April)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Canada Retail Sales (March)

·       USA New Home Sales (April)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/23)/ Building Permits Final (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Vietnam through May 25.

·       In Malaysia, the ruling People's Justice Party leadership elections are set to conclude, with attention focused on the competitive race for the deputy presidency between the incumbent, Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli, and Nurul Izzah Anwar, the prime minister's daughter. The outcome will shape the party's internal dynamics ahead of Malaysia's next general election, which must be held by February 2028..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (April)

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

·       Japan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Index (March)

·       Singapore     Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (May/09)/ Deposit Growth (May/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a  lecture on "Inflation and disinflation in the euro area" at EMU Lab (European University Institute Florence) in Florence, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech on "Finanzielle Bildung und Geldpolitik" at the Internationaler Demokratiepreis Bonn e.V. (IDP) "Demokratie lebt vom Mitmachen" event in Bonn, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       France Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador’s newly re-elected President, Daniel Noboa, will be inaugurated.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Quinag visits Indonesia for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Venezuela, parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled to be held.  However, the elections are widely anticipated to be rigged to keep the regime of President Maduro further entrenched in power.

·       Suriname holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Baccalaureate speech at the Princeton University graduation.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Kuala Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day – a national holiday – marking the day on the Hebrew calendar when the city was unified under Israeli rule after the 1967 War.

·       Iraq's electoral commission will open registration ahead of the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump Travels to the Middle East, Does the US and China Have a Trade Deal? Romania holds Contentious Presidential Run-Off Elections, and Markets Wait for Inflation Reports in the US, EU, UK, China, and Japan

May 11 - 18, 2025

It will be a busy week in the Middle East as President Trump prepares to head to Saudi Arabia, followed by the UAE and Qatar.  The President’s visits to the Gulf States are likely going to be good for US investment as the CEOs of Blackrock, Citi, Blackstone, Franklin Templeton, IBM, Qualcomm, and Alphabet (all of whom are speaking at the Saudi-US Investment Forum on May 13). 

Also accompanying the President will be the White House AI and Crypto Czar Davd Sacks as there is going to be significant discussion of cryptocurrencies. Interestingly, Trump is not planning on visiting Israel despite an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump has been seeking $1 trillion in increased Saudi investment in the US as well as another $1 trillion from the UAE.  We expect there will be major announcements of increased Saudi purchases of US defense equipment and a likely bolstering of US-Saudi/US-Gulf State security arrangements, too.

On Monday, we are expecting a joint statement from the US and China on trade talks in Geneva this weekend.  We note that it is not often we see joint statements between the US and China on just about anything so to hear one is coming on something as controversial as trade is highly unusual.  The White House and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the talks, have held close hold on any details of what was discussed or agreed to, as markets are monitoring the situation very closely for a sign of abatement of trade tensions overall.

In Europe this week, elections are the top event markets will be watching.  Romania will be holding a second round of highly contentious presidential elections.  In the first round on May 9th, hard-right nationalist George Simion won, and current polls suggest he will win the run-off.  Other elections this week in Europe include the first round of presidential elections in Poland and Portugal holding parliamentary elections.

Looking at the global financial radar screen this week, markets are eagerly awaiting a number of key inflation reports to gauge the impact of the Trump tariffs. In the US, the core CPI print for April is out on Tuesday, retail sales figures on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday. Intermixed with this are a number of Federal Reserve Governors speeches, including Fed Chair Jay Powell on Thursday.

In Europe, the EU Q1 GDP estimates and employment figures are out on Thursday, Germany’s April CPI is out on Wednesday, and the May ZEW Survey is out on Thursday, and the UK will be reporting labor figures on Tuesday, March GDP on Thursday.  

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from its April meeting on Friday, and we will see Japan’s Q1 GDP estimates on Saturday. Meanwhile, China will release April inflation numbers on Saturday. 

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US negotiators will continue nuclear talks (which began yesterday) in Muscat, Oman.

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicarmal legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula will travel to China through May 13 to discuss trade, particularly agricultural sales to gain market share from the US as a result of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US.

·       The 15th Annual China Business Conference, hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, begins in Washington, running until Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium, Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       USA WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

·       El Salvador PPI (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines holds elections for their House of Representatives and Senate.  More than 18,000 seats are set to be filled.

·       South Korea formally opens its election season, a three-week campaign for the presidency with the vote on June 3.

·       The Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (Capri) annual forum, this year titled Shaping Landscapes Towards a Sustainable Future for the Asia Pacific, in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook & Current (April)

·       Philippines General Elections

·       India Inflation Rate (April)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss banking union, the European Stability Mechanism, and other issues.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen opens the Strategic Dialogue on the European Defense Industry in Brussels.

·       European Council President Antonio Costa will travel to the Western Balkans through May 16 to meet with political leaders and co-host the Sixth European Political Community Summit in Tirana.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers through May 13 in Brussels.

·       EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through May 13 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the Bank of England Bank Watchers’ Conference at Kings Business School in London.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (March)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (March)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (March)/ Auto Production (April)/ Auto Sales (April)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

·       Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (March)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial begins in Berlin, Germany. 

·       The Arctic Council Ministerial meeting take place virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in his first foreign visit during his second term through May 16.  Joining Trump will be a number of US CEOs including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and Palantir’s Alex Karp. Interestingly, Trump is not visiting Israel on this trip.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce his new cabinet (TBC).

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will lead the Latin American delegation at the fourth meeting of foreign ministers of the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI (April)/ Redbook (May/10)/ Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/09)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese-French Economic and Financial Dialogue takes place in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ NAB Business Confidence (April)/ Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (March)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Council of Europe Committee of Ministers meets in Luxembourg through May 14.  Foreign Ministers for all 46 member states will attend and the primary agenda item is how to bolster support for Ukraine.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development holds their annual meeting through May 15 in London.

·       The Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025 begins at the Royal Danish Playhouse. The two-day gathering brings together leaders from business, politics, media and academia.

·       Eurovision 2025 begins in Basel, Switzerland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (April)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (April)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Current Account (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)/ ZEW Current Conditions (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US–Saudi Investment Forum takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, through May 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Finance Corporation’s Africa CEO Forum starts in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Unemployed Persons Q1

·       Ghana PPI (April)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (April)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

·       OPEC’s Monthly Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak that the  Award Ceremony for the Winners of the 2nd Edition of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Rabat, Morocco.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors (virtual).

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the California Bankers Association 25th Annual Conference and Directors Forum.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/09)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/09)/ Fed Daly Speech

·       Canada Building Permits (March)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/ Visitor Arrivals (March)

·       Japan PPI (April)

·       Australia Home Loans Q1/ Investment Lending for Homes Q1/ Wage Price Index Q1

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (March)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/02)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1

·       China New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of NATO Chiefs of Defense in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel on liquidity issues at "ECB Roundtable on Tokenisation: challenges and opportunities in a European context" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Sarah Breeden, Bank of England deputy governor, financial stability, gives a keynote speech at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association 39th Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam.

·        

·       Germany Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (March)

·       Hungary Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Current Account (March)

·       Serbia Current Account (March)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will host an informal foreign ministers meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Antalya through May 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on “Framework Review” at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at the  2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, and Richmond.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Manufacturing Sales (March)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/ PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/14)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ISE Economic Activity (March)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will hold high-level trade talks with his South Korean counterparts in Jeju, South Korea.

·       APEC Trade Ministers meet in Jeju.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May)/ Machine Tool Orders (April)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Employment Change (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (March)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Montenegro.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks, followed by Q&A at the France Payments Forum in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  video message on "Sustainability risks & financial market stability" at Green Finance Conference "Building bridges for financing a sustainable transition" in Vienna, Austria

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a keynote address at the 39th Annual General Meeting organized by ISDA in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member  Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat with François Villeroy de Galhau at Digital Currency II Conference organized by Banque de France, Toulouse School of Economics, Paris-Pantheon Assas and the ECB in Paris, France.

·       Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at the New Economics Foundation conference, EU macroeconomic policy in an age of shocks, in Brussels.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Q1/ Construction Orders Q1/ Construction Output (March)/ GDP (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Labour Productivity Q1

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (April)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia Building Permits (March)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Palestinian territories will observe Nakba Day, commemorating the anniversary of the beginning of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (March)/ Mining Production (March)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Nigeria Inflation Rate (April)/ Food Inflation (April)

Friday, May 16, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       BARKING SPEAKS

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (March)

·       USA Building Permits (April)/ Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech at the Nishinippon Seikei Konwakai meeting in Fukuoka, Japan.

·       South Korea Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q1

·       Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Services PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Political Community meets in Tirana, Albania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a Policymaker Panel: "Central Bank Communications and Uncertainty" at 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C.

·       France Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

·       Italy Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events

·       The Eurovision 2025 finals are held tonight.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Poland Presidential Election

·       Romania Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Iraq will host the 34th Arab League summit in Baghdad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 18, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The IMF Middle East and North Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Canadian PM Carney Meets with President Trump, Russia Celebrates Victory Day, While Chinese President Xi Meets with Russian President Putin, and the Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decide Interest Rates

This week marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe – V.E. Day. Great Britain, Russia, and other European nations will host parades and festivities to mark the historic occasion. Russia is offering Ukraine a short-term cease-fire on Friday to allow Russia to celebrate what it calls Victory Day. 

As part of the Victory Day celebration in Moscow, a number of leaders will attend in person, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Xi arrives on May for one-on-one meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a number of critical issues, including President Trump's tariffs, the war in Ukraine a, furthering China's support for Russia, and US efforts to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program. 

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will also meet with Putin on the sidelines of the celebrations. Brazil is chairing the BRICS this year and will discuss ways to strengthen the bloc in the face of Trump's riffs.

It will be a busy week in Europe.  At the Vatican, the Conclave of Cardinals begins to elect a new pope. 135 cardinals will gather in a closed meeting until they elect the successor to the late Pope Francis. As the Conclave begins, EU foreign ministers will be meeting in Warsaw to discuss how to strengthen European mutual security to counter Russia, as well as how to deal with the US tariffs on the EU.  And Friedrich Mertz is expected to be elected by the German Bundestag (Parliament) this week as the country's new Chancellor.

In Asia, we are watching the continued (and growing) tensions between Pakistan and India as a result of last month's attack in Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. India blames Pakistan for supporting the terrorists responsible for the attack and is threatening to attack Pakistan in response. While the US and EU work with both India and Pakistan to find a peaceful solution, we note that Iran is also trying to play a role. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to both countries this week to mediate. 

In Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, coming off a winning election last week, will meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs placed on Canada. We believe Trump is leaning toward lifting or at least temporarily suspending some of the tariffs. 

Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives coming to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and other senior Trump Administration officials seeking deals to get out from under Trump's tariffs.  Last week, meetings between Japanese and South Korean officials were held, but no deals were reached, and from what we have heard from numerous sources, the talks did not go well.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the US Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions will dominate the market's attention. The Fed—despite President Trump's demands for rate cuts—is expected to hold rates steady, while the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 24 basis points. 

Several other central bank and monetary policy-focused meetings will also be important to watch this week.  The European Central Bank is holding an off-site in Portugal, where we expect commentary on the impact of tariffs on the state of the European and global economy.  In Iceland, the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 on Friday and Saturday will host a slew of central bankers who will be giving major speeches and talking on panels, while at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference will also see a number of central bankers from various countries speaking.

 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday on the state of the international financial system.  It will certainly be a lively hearing as Bessent will face intense questions about the impact of the Trump tariffs on global markets in general and the US economy in particular. 

In the midst of all this, US March trade data will be out on Tuesday, Q1 data on Thursday, and productivity and labor data on Monday, while the April ISM services report will be out on Monday.  

In Europe, Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and trade balance figures on Thursday, while France reports its trade balance on Wednesday and industrial production on Tuesday. The Eurozone's April CPI is out on Thursday.

In Asia, China reports April trade figures on Friday, while the Bank of Japan releases its March monetary policy minutes on Thursday.  

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, Matsumoto Hisashi, will visit Algeria and Tunisia through May 6. 

·       China will hold its Golden Week holiday through May 5, and Japan will celebrate through May 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon holds the first phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial meetings take place in Vienna, Austria.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to have consultations on 1559 report (peace keeping in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) leaders to discuss tariffs.

·       The Milken Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California.  US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak at the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (April)/ ISM Services Employment (April)/ ISM Services New Orders (April)/ ISM Services Prices (April)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Kazakhstan through May 7.

·       South Korea celebrates the Birth of Buddha.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Singapore Retail Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Government Budget Value (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Milan will host of the 58th annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank’s Board of Governors.

·       In Great Britain, Members of the armed forces will march from Parliament Square, kicking off a week of 80th VE Day anniversary events, including a recitation of Winston Churchill’s victory speech as Big Ben strikes midday, and a military fly-past over central London.

·       In France, rail passengers are set to be hit by industrial action over the early May public holiday. The CGT-Cheminots, SNCF’s largest union, has called for an indefinite strike starting today, pushing for better pay for drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, today is an Early May bank holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (March)/ New Car Sales (April)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia PPI (April)

·       France New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (April)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Jordan PPI (March)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs.

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will vote on the nominations of  Michelle Bowman to be the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman for Supervision.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (April)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Redbook (May/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia hosts the 46th ASEAN summit.

·       South Korea celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Greenery Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (April)

·       Australia Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (April)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Friedrich Merz will be voted in as the new Chancellor.

·       The European Commission is expected to release plans for ending reliance on Russian oil and gas imports.

·       The Defense 24 Days security conference begins in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Athens International Defense and Security Expo begins in Athens, Greece.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank begins its two-day Governing Council of the ECB: annual retreat hosted by Banco de Portugal.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden will be a panelist at the Global Finance and Technology Networks’ 4th Point Zero Forum.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Romania PPI (March)

·       France Industrial Production (March)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the Denizkurdu-II-2025, or Sea Wolf-II-2025, naval exercise in the Black, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas through May 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The RealID requirements enter into force in the US for all air travel

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ Used Car Prices (April)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to participate in the Victory Day celebrations.

·       ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers meet in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q1/ Unemployment Rate Q1/ Labour Costs Index Q1/ Participation Rate Q1

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (April)/ Ai Group Construction Index (April)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       At the Vatican, the conclave to elect the next pope beings.

·       Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France, marking his first foreign trip in office.  Later in the day, he will then travel to Poland to meet with Prime Minister Donald Tusk

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Warsaw, Poland, through May 8.

·       In Denmark, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, co-hosted by Danish climate, energy and utilities minister Lars Aagaard, COP30 president-designate ambassador André Corrêa do Lago and outgoing COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. Discussions at the two-day meeting will revolve around implementation of last year’s COP29 plans and the key expectations for this year’s COP30

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of Valdimire Putin first being elected.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (April)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to New Delhi, India and Pakistan in an attempt to mediate between the two countries after Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the mandate of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will travel to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin.

·       The 3rd Latin Consumer Summit begins in Miami, Floria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (March)/ Car Production (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/08)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/07)

·       Canada Financial Stability Report

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will end his trip to Azerbaijan and visit Russia through May 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Motorbike Sales (April)IL

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the anniversary of “VE Day”, 80 years since the surrender of Nazi Germany.

·       Russia is expected to begin a 72-hour ceasefire with Ukraine.  But most observers do not believe Russian military forces will cease fighting.

·       The Ukrainian Parliament will vote to approve the US-Ukraine economic/critical minerals deal

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion on “Repo market: Turmoil at the core of the financial system?” at SUERF BAFFI Bocconi webinar.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (March)

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Halifax House Price Index (April)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (March)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Tuominen Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Azerbaijan for talks.  Netanyahu will discuss tensions with Turkey and Iran.

·       Turkish and Iraqi delegations will attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on Maximum Employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the Reykjavik Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University.  Later, he will speak on “Taylor Rules in Policy” before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference virtually.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on monetary policy research at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference: Finishing the Job and New Challenges, Stanford, California.  Governor Lisa Cook will also speak at the conference, giving a speech on Productivity Dynamics.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack will also speak before the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference on the topic of monetary policy.

·       The Federal Reserve Board holds the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome and opening remarks before the “Fed Listens: Perspectives from the Midwest" event.

·       US Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/09)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production & Exports (April)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Wages (April)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (March)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)/ Average Cash Earnings (March)/ Overtime Pay (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Vehicle Sales (April)/ Current Account Q1/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/25)/ Deposit Growth (April/25)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union celebrates Europe Day, marking the 1950 declaration by the Luxembourg-born French statesman Robert Schuman proposing a continent united in solidarity, considered the first step towards the EU being formed.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Nancy to sign a Franco-Polish economic and defense cooperation treaty.

·       Russia will celebrate Victory Day, marking the date when German forces surrendered to the Soviet army in 1945, commemorated with a military parade in Moscow’s Red Square and wreath-laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Attendees this year are set to include Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the keynote address at the Reykjavik economic conference 2025, hosted by Northwestern University and the Central Bank of Iceland.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges” of Harvard University.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (April)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicameral legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister, and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Canada, Australia, and Singapore Hold Elections, Japan and South Korea Talk Trade MOUs in Washington, India-Pakistan Tensions Continue to Rise, BRICS Foreign Ministers Meet,  the Bank of Japan Considers Interest Rates Amidst a Small Flood of Global Economic Reports

April 27 - May 4, 2025

Coming off the whirlwind of last week's World Bank/IMF Spring meetings in Washington, the geopolitical/geoeconomic week ahead will be almost as busy.   First, Canada, Australia, and Singapore hold elections this week.  We are particularly focused on Monday's Canadian elections, which, according to polls, strongly suggest the incumbent Labor Party – only months ago destined for defeat – is poised to make an extraordinary comeback under the leadership of current Prime Minister Mark Carney. 

Carney used President Trump's punitive tariffs on illegal immigration and Fentanyl trafficking, along with Trump's antagonistic suggestions that Canada should become the US's 51st state, to rally the Labor Party and the country to keep him in power.  The only question now is how large a margin Labor wins.

Sticking with tariffs, there are three important events to watch this week.  We expect to see South Korean and Japanese trade negotiators in Washington for further talks and possibly signing Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs) with the Trump Administration.  The question markets are focused on is whether the MOUs effectively suspend US tariffs on both countries and how long that suspension will last.   Also, this week, the Trump Administration's tariffs on important auto parts go into effect, which will likely result in increased auto prices.

Meanwhile, in Brazil, the BRICS foreign ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro this week.  Top of the agenda will be the Trump tariffs and a discussion on how to accelerate their goal of establishing alternative trade and financial systems.  The foreign minister meetings will be followed by a meeting of BRICS national security advisors to discuss how to work more closely on security and intelligence sharing.

Moving to the Middle East, the US is expected to meet with Iranian officials again on April 26 for another round of talks on Iran's nuclear program.  That meeting — and all future meetings—will be negotiating highly technical/highly complicated aspects of Iran's uraninium enrichment program, which will likely make the talks much tougher and slower.

We are also watching closely the devolving situation between India and Pakistan.  Tensions rose massively following a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir last week that killed 26 people.  India shut the border with Pakistan, suspended all visa services for Pakistan nationals, and suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, which is reliant on the sharing of the river water.  The two nations have always had, at best, working relations that sporadically nosedives because of events like the one in Kashmir.  Considering both countries have large nuclear arsenals, it is never good to see them ramp up tensions.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the coming week will see a number of important economic indicators released in most of the major economies.   In the US, there will be no Federal Reserve speeches as the Fed goes into its two-week Blackout Period before its May interest rate meeting.  Markets (and the Fed) will look at the April jobs data on Friday, the core March PCE and Q1 GDP on Wednesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Thursday, and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report and JOLTS data on Tuesday.  In addition, the US Treasury will release its updated borrowing estimates on Monday.

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Thursday to consider interest rates.  Consensus suggests the Bank will hold rates.  Japan will also be releasing industrial production numbers and retail sales on Wednesday and consumer confidence survey on Thursday – which will be interesting to see if there is movement in the wake of the Trump tariffs.   In China, the April PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing index are out on Wednesday – again, likely to be interesting early indicators of the impact of the Trump tariffs. 

Moving to Europe, Germany, France, and Italy release CPIs on Wednesday.  The Eurozone CPI is out on Friday.  Additionally, Q1 GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the Eurozone are out on Wednesday, too.  Consumer confidence reports for Germany and Italy are out on Thursday, as is the European Central Bank's consumer expectations survey.

Below is what else we are tracking around the world in the week ahead:

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Federal Election

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam through April 29.

·       The secretary general of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Sanae Takaichi, will lead a delegation to China through April 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 28, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS Foreign Ministers will meet in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil through April 29.

·       The BRICS Heads of ‘space agencies will meet in Brazil.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada holds federal elections.  The ruling Liberal Party looks on track to retain power with Prime Minister David Carney staying in the prime minister seat.

·       The US Congress returns to work after a two-week recess for the Easter/Passover holidays.

·       Trinidad and Tobago elections for their House of Representatives.

·       The Cayman Islands hold parliamentary elections as well as vote on a referendum on the decriminalizing of cannabis, funding for new cruise berth infrastructure, and the legalization of gambling in the form of a national lottery.

·       Amazon is scheduled to launch the first 27 satellites or tis Project Kuiper, its fast internet network. The network is seeking to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink system.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (March)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia PPI (March)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through April 29 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       In Brussels, NATO will hold a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of German accession to the military bloc.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank will publish its 2024 Annual Report.  ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will present the report to the ECON Committee in Brussels.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)/ Jobseekers Total (March)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Net Payrolls (March)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Redbook (April/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (February)/ House Price Index (February)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/25)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit the Philippines through April 30.   He will meet with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. to discuss mutual security issues and China’s growing military presence in the region as well as the US tariffs.

·       The Indonesia Electric Vehicle Show begins in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor for Financial Markets Christopher Kent will give a speech at the Bloomberg Conference in Sydney, Australia.

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Export Prices (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q1

·       Philippines Budget Balance (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and attend the fourth Turkey-Italy intergovernmental summit in Rome, Italy. 

·       In Poland, 13 EU member states that border the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas, begin a two-day summit in Warsaw for the Three Seas Initiative.  The Initiative  seeks to improve political and commercial relations together among the 13 countries.

·       Japan celebrates Showa Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the welcoming speech on "Financial and trade fragmentation: risks and policy alternatives" at the joint BIS, Bank of England, ECB and IMF Spillover Conference 2025 "Policy challenges in a fragmenting world: Global trade, exchange rates, and capital flows" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery will give the keynote speech on "What are the ECB’s plans for 2025? What are the regulatory priorities?" at the annual Conference on Banking Supervision organized by Handelsblatt in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden will give a keynote speech at the Innovate Finance Global Summit in London.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Hungary PPI (March)/ Deposit Interest Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Loans to Households (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)/ Economic Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/ Services Sentiment (April)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (March)/ Economic Confidence Index (April)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Italy Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Sales (February)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Ramsden Speech

·       Greece Total Credit (March)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan. In the afternoon, there is a private meeting on Myanmar.

·       The National Security Advisors of the BRIC member states will meet in Brasilia, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese trade negotiators will visit the United States for a second round of high-level talks on tariffs.

·       Today is the 100th day of the Trump Administration.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/25)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/25)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Employment Cost Index Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ PCE Prices Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Q1/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Chicago PMI (April)/ Personal Income & Spending (March)/ PCE Price Index (March)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/25)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Balance (March)

·       Canada GDP (February)

·       Chile Copper Production (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (March)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Japan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Coincident Index Final (February)/ Construction Orders (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q1/ CPI Q1/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q1/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q1/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS General PMI (April)/ Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Thailand Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (March)/ Private Consumption & Investment (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       India Government Budget Value (March)/ M3 Money Supply (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey will give a speech at the Climate Financial Risk Forum in London.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision  Gareth Trunan gives a speech at the 22nd Insurance Conference on Overseeing BPA Growth Safely.

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Household Consumption (March)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Germany Retail Sales (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ Unemployed Persons (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (April)/ Bavaria CPI (April)/ Brandenburg CPI (April)/ Hesse CPI (April)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (April)/ Saxony CPI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (April)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)/ Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues Q1/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ECB Montagner Speech

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Spain Current Account (February)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Greece PPI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Russia Business Confidence (April)/ Real Wage Growth (February)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ GDP (March)

·       Ukraine Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (March)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 1, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/26)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI & Employment (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/01)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/30)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Chinese ban on foreign missionaries sharing their faith or establishing religious organizations will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Commodity Prices (April)/ PPI Q1

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Bank of Japan Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q1

·       Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January, February, & March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is a public holiday – May Day - in most of Europe.  Markets are closed.

·       In the UK, 24 English local elections will be held as well as six regional mayor races and by-election to decide two member of parliament seats.  The elections are seen as bellwether for how the ruling Labor Party is seen by voters and how Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Party is faring.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Local Elections/ BoE Consumer Credit (March)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (March)/ M4 Money Supply (March)/ Net Lending to Individuals (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (March)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)

·       France Budget Balance (March)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (April)

Friday, May 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Government Payrolls (April)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (April)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Exports from China and Hong Kong will lose their qualification for U.S. de minimis duty exemptions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (March)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/ Jobs/applications ratio (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/26)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/25)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Singapore General Elections

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Australia General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ CPI Flash (April)

·       France New Car Registrations (April)

·       Spain New Car Sales (April)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, May 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Trump Administration’s 25 percent tariffs on important auto parts go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Australia, federal elections will be held.  The ruling Labor Party is expected to lose its small majority in the lower house but retain enough power to form a minority government.

·       In Singapore, elections will be held.  The ruling People’s Action Party is expected to win again, as they have in every election since 1959.

·       South Korea's ruling People Power Party will select its candidate for the June 3 presidential election.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank annual meeting begins a four-day session in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Take Center Stage, Vice President Vance Visits India,  Bilateral Trade Negotiations Continue in Washington, and the G7 and G20 Meet on the Sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings

April 20 - 27, 2025

A good portion of the world hopefully enjoyed a peaceful Easter holiday today, and many are taking the week for spring vacation.  However, in Washington, Easter weekend was the quiet before the economic storm as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund  (WB/IMF) are holding their annual Spring meetings.   The nation’s capital will be filled with finance ministers and central bankers from around the world (good luck getting restaurant reservations and avoiding driving downtown – the traffic jams during WB/IMF weeks are epic).  

But unlike most World Bank/IMF meetings, a good number of trade ministers will also be in Washington this week, seeking to work out bilateral trade deals with the US.  We are aware of meetings between US officials and representatives of Thailand, India, and Malaysia, and suspect more meetings are being arranged as we write this note.

As tariff negotiations ramp up, we will be watching for the WB/IMF annual economic report on Tuesday.  This report will likely help set the tone for the week and likely point to their expectation of significant economic disruption as a result of the Trump tariffs.  Both the G7 and G20 will be meeting on the sidelines of the WB/IMF meetings, and tariffs will be the paramount issue of discussion.

Also this week, US Vice President J.D. Vance will visit India for four days starting Monday.  Vance will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, and trade, mutual defense, and security issues will be on the agenda.  Modi will then travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for bilateral meetings with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to discuss both trade and a number of other issues of interest to India, including the US-Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine peace talks, and relations with China.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the WB/IMF meetings dominate the week.  But there are several important economic reports worth watching.  Global PMIs will be out on Wednesday, giving markets a slightly clearer sense of how tariffs might be disrupting markets.

In the US, markets are watching for the Beige Book release along with durable goods orders and housing market data.  In Asia, aside from Japan’s CPI numbers, China will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan rates.  In Europe, the ifo Survey in Germany and the consumer confidence reports for the Eurozone and the UK are out this week.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 20, 2025

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christian world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 21, 2025

Global

·       Financial markets in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy are closed for the Easter Monday holiday.

·       The World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will begin his visit to the United States with stops in Miami, New York, and Washington, D.C. 

·       Thailand will send a trade delegation to Washington to discuss tariffs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee is interviewed on CNBC.

·       USA CB Leading Index (March)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance will begin a four-day visit to India, which will include talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their discussions are likely to focus on a proposed bilateral trade pact and American "reciprocal" tariffs, among other issues of mutual interest. Accompanied by his wife Usha, the first Indian American and Hindu second lady of the United States, and their children, Vance will visit the tourist cities of Agra and Jaipur as well as the capital, New Delhi.

· The Annual Philippine-US military exercises (Balikatan 2025) begin in the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, Gatwick airport operations staff continue their industrial action, likely to increase disruption for travelers returning from Easter breaks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Egypt, the Sham Ennesim festival is celebrated marking the start of spring.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4/ M1 Money Supply (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Economic presents its joint Economic Outlook report.

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile's President Gabriel Boric will make a state visit to Brazil..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker participates in fireside chat on how economic mobility impacts regional economies and can promote local growth before the Economic Mobility Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Summit.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat, “Macro and Micro Economic Forces Shaping our Future" before the RVA Big Dipper Innovation Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Transmission of Monetary Policy" before the University of Minnesota Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute (HHEI) Spring 2025 Roundtable.

·       Canada PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Redbook (April/19)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/18)/

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Economic Activity (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia.

· In Australia, early voting begins in the country’s federal elections, which are held on May 3.  Polls leading up to the race had pointed to a potential minority government, where neither party achieves the 76 seats needed to govern, but the incumbent center-left Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has gained momentum during the campaign, improving his chances of forming a government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev and Foreign Minister Saido in Tashkent.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the MIT/ICADE Finance Club in Madrid, Spain.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts & Forecasters/ Government Budget & Debt to GDP 2024/ ECB Knot Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan President William Ruto will visit China through April 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Institute of International Finance holds its Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C. alongside the IMF/World Bank meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president and chief executive Austan Goolsbee delivers opening remarks in a virtual presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s 2025 Economic Mobility Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem give opening remarks before a “Fed Listens" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

·       SA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/18)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/18)/ Fed Beige Book/ Building Permits (March)/ Building Permits (March)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Singapore, the nine-day election campaign begins in advance of the May 3 election.

·       The Shanghai Auto Show begins – the world’s biggest – and runs for ten days.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Credit Card Spending (March)

·       Australia S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Indonesia HSBC Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Loan Growth (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russian-Iranian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation meets in Moscow.

·       EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius will meet with South Korea's minister for the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, Seok Jong-gun, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England chief economist and executive director for monetary analysis Huw Pill speaks at Leeds University Business School.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will participate on a panel discussion entitled “Tokenization and the Financial System: Adapting to the New Landscape” during the IMF/WB Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled “Central Bankers’ Dilemmas Amid Changing Global Liquidity conditions” at IIF Global Outlook Forum “Forging Growth in a Time of Transition” during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       eat Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Madagascar and partake in the fifth summit of the Indian Ocean Commission. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 24, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are meeting in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Trump Administration is hoping to finalize a deal with Ukraine for access to critical minerals.

·       Malaysian Trade Minister Zafrul meets US Trade Representative Jamison Greer in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering event, “Innovating the Future: Perspectives on Science, Engineering and the Economy."

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/19)/ Existing Home Sales (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/18)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/23)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China marks the National Day of Space Flight, on the day in 1970 when the country launched its first man-made earth satellite, Dongfanghong-1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/19)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/19)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, United Kingdom, on the sidelines of the Energy Security Summit co-hosted by the United Kingdom and the International Energy Agency through April 25..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate in a panel session at the Peterson Institute (PIIE) Webcast “Review of Monetary Policy Strategy by Central Banks”.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagne will participate on a panel at the symposium “A Franco-German Tandem? Insights from History and Future Challenges for the Banking Systems in France and Germany” jointly organized by the Institute for Banking and Financial History (IBF), the House of Finance at Goethe University Frankfurt and in cooperation with Deutsch-Französische Gesellschaft Frankfurt am Main at the invitation of ODDO BHF in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Sharon Donnery will give  introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) roundtable, "The Future of Financial Global Policymaking" in Washington D.C., United States of America.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits South Africa..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (March)

Friday, April 25, 2025 

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (April)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (March)/ Budget Balance (February)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/25)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)/ Federal Tax Revenues (February)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day in Australia and New Zealand, honoring the anniversary of the Gallipoli landings in 1915 during World War I.

·       The Marshall Islands holds a constitutional referendum.

·       Today is Military Foundation day in North Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/11)/ Deposit Growth (April/11)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Claudia Buch will give introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.  

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Car Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuela will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam and the Philippines through April 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Continue to Dominate Markets and Geopolitics, Chinese President Xi Travels Embarks on Asia Tour, The ECB Decides on Interest Rates, and Fed Chair Powell Talks Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook

April 13 - 20, 2025

It was another wild week for global markets in the wake of President Trump’s global tariff plan after he called a 90-day time-out on their implementation while raising tariffs on China to 145%.  While this coming week would normally be a quiet week for markets in advance of the Easter holiday, everyone is bracing for another wild week of high-level bilateral meetings and likely new announcements.

Drilling into the week ahead, we are going to be watching the meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump on Thursday to discuss prospects for a trade deal with the EU.   Additionally, we note there are unconfirmed reports US Treasury Scott Bessent may meet with UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves this week, too, to discuss a possible US-UK trade deal.   Bessent is scheduled to travel to Argentina on Monday to meet with President Javier Milei as Argentia is likely to sign a new deal with the IMF on financing assistance, further boosting Milei’s economic reform policies.

While all this going on, Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia for his first foreign visits of the year.  Trade relations are expected to be the primary point of discussion in the wake of the Trump tariffs – especially on Vietnam and Cambodia which got hit with tariffs of 46% and 49% respectively.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it will be a relatively light economic reporting week.   Markets, however, will be most focused on central bank decisions coming from the  European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.   

In the US, we will see the release of Q1 GDP, retail sales figures, industrial production for March and jobless claims on Friday.  But perhaps the most keenly watched economic data point this week will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday as well as speech by a number of regional Federal Reserve Presidents.

In Asia, Japan releases its March CPI on Friday while China’s Q1 GDP as well as March trade balance figures for March are out Monday.

In Europe, the UK labor market indicators are out Tuesday and  March CPI is out on Wednesday.  Germany sees the ZEW Survey for April out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington to hold new talks aimed at resolving EU-U.S. trade tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       India will launch joint military exercises with 10 African states located along the continent's eastern coast off the coast of Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).  

·       OPEC releases its monthly Oil Market Report.

·       There will be a BRICS Agriculture Working Group meeting in Brasilia, Brazil through April 15.

·       There will be a BRICs Meeting of Senior Energy Officials (virtual) through April 15.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump hosts Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House.

·       U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Argentina's President Javier Milei and local businesspeople in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

·       The U.S. Federal Trade Commission begins opening arguments in the trial seeking to unwind Meta’s purchase of Instagram.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Outlook with Chris Waller Event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Driving Through the Economic Fog" before the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on monetary policy in a moderated conversation hosted by Emory University.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak the Villanova Univeristy School of Business.

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi kicks begins a tour to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia that ends on Friday. The trip comes at a critical time for both China and Southeast Asia, with Vietnam and Cambodia among the countries hit hardest by the tariffs Trump announced on April 2. Malaysia, meanwhile, is this year's ASEAN chair, leading the bloc's response to Washington's measures.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Visitor Arrivals (February)

·       Singapore Central Bank interest rate decision/GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Car Sales (March)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, and Iran.  They will also talk about EU-Africa relations, the Western Balkans and how to engage further in the Balkans.

·       There will be an information meeting of EU Social Affairs Ministers through April 15 in Warsaw, Poland. 

·       The 1st EU-Palestine High-Level Political Dialogue in Luxembourg.  The gathering, led by  the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, and the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammad Mustafa. The Commission will be represented by Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica and Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib.  This the first ever meeting of EU and Palestinian leaders at this level and they are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the unfolding situation in the West Bank, and prospects for a two-state solution.

·       The Fourth Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Luxembourg.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 2 ‘Internal market’, including Chapters 1 (free movement of goods), 2 (freedom of movement of workers), 3 (right of establishment and freedom to provide services), 4 (free movement of capital), 6 (company law), 7 (intellectual property law), 8 (competition policy), 9 (financial services) and 28 (consumer and health protection).

·       Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will take part in the Third Meeting of National Coordinators of the Group of Friends in Defense of the United Nations Charter” in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Construction Output (February)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

·       Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).  

·       There will be a BRICS Climate Finance Meeting (virtual).

·       There will be a BRICS meeting on the global re-insurance landscape (virtual) through April 16.

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Peru, former president Ollanta Humala and his wife, Nadine Heredia, accused of money laundering, set to hear their sentence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks at the acceptance of the 2025 Distinguished Alumna Award at the Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C.

·       Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import & Export Prices (March)/ Redbook (April/12)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/11)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In North Korea, the country celebrates the Day of the Sun, marking the birthday of the country’s first leader Kim Il Sung.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (March)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/15)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1/ Cash Remittances (February)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank President will host an informal dinner and exchange of views of the Council with the President of the European Council António Costa in Frankfurt.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)/ Claimant Count Change (March)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (March)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (February) / ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

·       Serbia Building Permits (February)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Bahrain hosts the Smart Cities Summit through April 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SARB Monetary Policy Review

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultation, on the Great Lakes region.  

·       the World Trade Organization publishes its annual Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, analyzing recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2024 and forecasting GDP in 2025

·       There will be a BRICS Disaster Management Working Group meeting through April 17 in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       There will be a meeting of BRICS Transport Working Group in Brasilia, Brazil through April 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Fed 101" and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before event, "Columbus Metropolitan Club Weekly Forum: Insights from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack"

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economy and community banking with Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan before a Global Perspectives event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Dallas Citizens Council.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/11)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/11)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)/ Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun will travel to Hanoi for meetings with Vietnam’s General Phan Van Giang.  Together, they will watch the 38th joint naval patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision/South Korea Export & Import Prices (March)

·       New Zealand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Machinery Orders (February)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (April/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU gender equality ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Core Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

·       Serbia Current Account (February)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 17, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the White House.  They are expected to discuss Trump’s tariff regime toward the EU.

·       Japan and the United States will hold their first round of high-level negotiations on U.S. tariffs in Washington.

·       U.S. fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships will go into effect, although the extent of the fees is unclear given recent reconsideration in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Cybersecurity in the Banking System at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs 2025 State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability, New York, New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

·       USA Housing Starts (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/12)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/05)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/11)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/16)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Gunma, Japan.

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/12)/ BoJ Nakagawa Speech

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (February)

·       Greece Current Account (February)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ / Marginal Lending Rate

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Belarus GDP (March)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Syria Independence Day, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Ghana PPI (March)

Friday, April 18, 2025

Global

·       Today is Good Friday.  Most financial markets in Europe and the Americas are closed.

·       The United Nations is closed in observation of Good Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President J.D. Vance visits Italy and will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (a day after she meets with President Trump in Washington).  Vance will also visit the Vatican for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday.

·       Iran-US nuclear talks to resume (to be confirmed) in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will participate in a conversation at the University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics.

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

·       China FDI (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbia’s new government takes office after mass protests forced the previous government to resign.

·       In the UK a four-day strike begins by members of the union Unite over pay, pensions and conditions for 100 Red Handling staff, including baggage handlers and flight dispatchers, at Gatwick airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Slovakia Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (March)/ Manufacturing PMI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 19, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·      In the US, thousands of demonstrators are expected to gather in Washington and other US cities to protest against President Donald Trump and his policies.

·       Today is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution (the Battles of Lexington and Concord).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 20, 2025 

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christan world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Go Into Effect as China and EU Move to Retaliate, Netanyahu Meets with Trump on Iran and Tariffs, and Markets Look to Fed Minutes for Guidance

April 6 - 13, 2025

What a week the global markets had last week! And it is not over, as this coming week looks just as turbulent. President Trump’s new tariff regime will go into effect this week, and China’s retaliatory 34% tariffs will go into effect, too. EU trade ministers’ officials meet on Tuesday to consider the full impact of the Trump tariffs and likely move to institute their retaliatory tariffs.

We expect a number of bilateral meetings to be announced this week with the US as countries seek quick relief. Vietnam has already sent a delegation to Washington, and we will be watching closely for any announcements. Vietnam has a $124 billion trade deficit with the US, the second highest after China, and has been hit with a 46% tariff rate. The US is Vietnam’s largest export market.

With all this going on, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is comprised of 50 countries supporting Ukraine militarily and financially, will meet in Brussels. But for the first time, no senior US official will attend. The absence comes as President Trump continues to press Russia to agree to a cease-fire – an effort that saw Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, was taken off the US sanctions list so he could travel to Washington to meet with US officials to discuss the current peace proposal. The former Goldman Sachs banker has since told reporters he believes there will be further discussions this coming week between Washington and Moscow, but he gave no details in what form they will take.

Also this coming week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is traveling to Washington for his second set of meetings this year with President Trump. The two leaders are expected to discuss the tariff situation, the situation in Gaza, and the policy coordination toward Iran.

We would also note that something else of significance is taking place in Washington this week: Tawain’s top national security official, Joseph Wu, is holding a secret meeting with senior US officials about the ongoing tensions with China. The US and Taiwan are terming the meetings as a “special channel” for Tawain and the US to discuss security issues.

 Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, markets are looking to Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes for indications of what the Fed might do regarding the tariffs. Also out this week will be US CPI for March and the important University of Michigan consumer survey for April.

In Europe, European Central Bank officials will gather with EU Finance and economic ministers this week to discuss the economic impact of the tariffs. Also this week, the UK GDP for February is out on Friday, and Germany reports its March CPI numbers.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak on Wednesday and likely reveal early views of the tariffs' impact. Meanwhile, China will report both CPI and PPI figures on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian right-wing supporters will demonstrate in Sao Paulo in support of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Daylight Savings ends in Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UN Peacekeeping operations (HOMC).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. In a statement, the Israeli Prime Minister said the two leaders will discuss “discuss the tariff issue, the efforts to return our hostages, Israel-Turkey relations, the Iranian threat and the battle against the International Criminal Court.”

·       US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth travels to Panama for talks with Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino.

·       New session of Greenlandic Parliament (Inatsisartut) opens.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler will give a virtual lecture at Harvard University entitled “Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve.”

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)

·       Canada BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA Consumer Credit Change (February)/ Used Car Prices (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN finance ministers and central bank chiefs will meet in Kuala Lumpur through April 10. They will seek to address economic challenges, including the impact of Trump's latest tariffs. The main meeting is set for Thursday and is expected to discuss regional financial integration and resilience amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Coincident Index Prel (February)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (February)

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Indonesia Tourist Arrivals (January & February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Luxembourg to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and possible responses and retaliatory tariffs. They will also discuss ongoing trade issues with China.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture and Media Ministers through April 8 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Tokyo, Japan for talks.

·       Polish President Andrzej Duda visits Estonia for bilateral talks.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks at opening of TASS photo exhibition in Moscow.  He then will give remarks later regarding the development of the Kaluga region.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in  Session 2 "Central bank money in a digital World: CBDCs" at conference "The interplay between tax and financial regulations in a new digital environment" organized by Banca d'Italia, Institute for Austrian and International Tax Law and Vienna University of Economics and Business in Rome, Italy.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       Romania Retail Sales (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (February)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (February)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/28)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Cairo, Egypt for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (March)

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4/ PPI (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (February)/ Private Bank Lending (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Tuesday, April 8, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). 

·       The Soyuz MS-27 spacecraft launches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan to ISS with two Russians and one American.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Central American Security Conference, organized by Panama and US Southern Command begins in Panama and goes through April 10.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will participate.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in “The Economic Outlook and Work of the Federal Reserve" conversation hosted by the Brigham Young University Marriott School of Business.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ Redbook (April/05)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/04)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (February)/ Nominal Budget Balance (February)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea will announce the date of forthcoming snap elections.

·       Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will pay a state visit to Laos through April 9. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence & Utilization Q1

·       Japan Current Account (February)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

·       South Korea Current Account (February)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       Indonesia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will visit London for another round of free trade negotiations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the closing speech at the annual meeting of the Spanish Banking Association in Madrid, Spain.  Later in the day, he will give the introductory statement at a Hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Governor Clare Lombardelli takes part in a panel discussion with former Obama adviser Jason Furman on the divergence between British and American economic productivity at an event hosted by the Resolution Foundation think-tank in London.

·       Ireland Construction PMI (March)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Global

·       President Donald Trump’s announced trade tariffs are due to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia. .

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) Conference begins in Tegucigalpa, Honduras.

·       Union workers will begin a 36-hour long strike in Buenos Aires against President Javier Milei’s policies.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a conversation with the Economic Club of Washington.

·       Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/04)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/04)/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/04)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (February)

·       El Salvador PPI (March)

·       Panama Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank releases the latest edition of its widely followed economic publication, the Asian Development Outlook. The report will include growth forecasts for emerging economies in Asia this year and next

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuno Ueda gives a speech at the 100th Trustee Conference in Tokyo.

·       Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Indonesia RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th EU-Ukraine Association Council will meet in Brussels

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Vietnam and China through April 11.

·       The Chair and Vice-Chair of The European Parliament’s Delegation for Relations with the United States, together with the chairs of the committees on foreign affairs and international trade, will travel to Washington DC to meet with counterparts in the US Congress. They will discuss the situation in Ukraine and its impact on transatlantic relations, EU-US trade, and relations with China.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum begins in Delphi, Greece and runs through April 12.  A number of government officials, senior business executives, and central bankers are scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a in policy panel 'Macro-Financial Stability Policy in a Fragmented World' at Bruegel's 20th anniversary event "Globalization and geo-economic fragmentation" organized together with De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (February)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-MEAD Summit takes place in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 10, 2025 

Global

·       G20 finance and central bank deputies two-day meeting begins in Johannesburg, South Africa.

·       There will be a meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Security in the Use of Information and Communications Technologies (WGSICT) in Brasilia, Brazil through April 11.

Americas

·       China’s 34% retaliatory tariffs against US imports take effect.

·       A senior Ukrainian delegation is expected to travel to Washington to discuss a draft proposal granting the US access to critical minerals in Ukraine (to be confirmed).

Political/Social Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will have her confirmation hearing to serve as Vice Chair for Supervision before the Senate Banking Committee.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives welcome remarks before hybrid Outlook for North American Trade and Immigration event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Economic Club of New York.

·       Canada Building Permits (February)

·       USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/05)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/04)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/10)/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/09)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Technology Summit begins in New Delhi.

Economic Reports/Events –

§  Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock to speak at the Chief Executive Women Melbourne Annual Dinner in Melbourne, Australia.

§  South Korea Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/05)/ PPI (March)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/05)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ RBA Bullock Speech

·       China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK-Germany-France led “Coalition of the Willing” will meet at NATO Headquarters.  The coalition consists of those countries willing to militarily and financially support Ukraine.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal in Brussels.

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will conduct a state visit to South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give a
lecture at the SGH Warsaw School of Economics in Warsaw, Poland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate in a  session "Adapting regulation and supervision to diversity in the EU banking system" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland.  Later in the day, he will participate in a session entitled “''Banking Union: combining EU and national interests."

·       Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at Market News International connect event, UK Economic and Financial Stability Prospects in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen will participate in apanel discussion "Priorities for the EU banking sector" at Eurofi High Level Seminar in Warsaw, Poland.

·       European Central Bank Supervisory Board Member Sharon Donnery will give a  speech at the Delphi Economic Forum X in Delphi, Greece.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Tuominen Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

·       Italy Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (March)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

·       Switzerland SNB Moser Speech/ SNB Tschudin Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tesla will begin selling its cars in Saudi Arabia for the first time.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Court of Justice is set to hear arguments in a case filed by Sudan against the United Arab Emirates, in which Khartoum has accused the Gulf state of complicity in genocide.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in moderated conversation before the Arkansas State Bank Department's 29th Annual Day with the Commissioner.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (February)

·       USA PPI (March) / Michigan Current Conditions Prel (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/11)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (March)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ Bank Loan Growth (March/28)/ Deposit Growth (March/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/04)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (March)

·       China Vehicle Sales (March)/ New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Warsaw, Poland.  Leaders will discuss economic developments and euro area policy coordination and upcoming international meetings.  There will also be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through April 12.

·       The Ukraine Defense Contact Group will meet at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.  Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to skip the meeting in an unusual and widely noted move.

·       The Council of Foreign Ministers of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will meet in Kazakhstan.  The CIS is made up of 12 former Soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

·       IN Instanbul, the trial of Istanbul Mayor and national opposition leader Ekrem Imamoglu for various charges begins.

·       Turkey will host the annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum in its Mediterranean resort city of Antalya through Sunday. Under the theme "Reclaiming Diplomacy in a Fragmented World.”

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (March)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Auto Production & Sales (March)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (March)

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

Saturday, April 12, 2025

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Passover begins and goes through April 20.

·       Today is Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Osaka Expo begins with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba as well as the nation's emperor and empress are due to attend the opening ceremony.  The Expo goes for six months and will showcase technologies and innovations from 165 countries and organizations.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ecuador Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finland holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.