The Global Week Ahead

France’s Government Faces a Tough No Confidence Vote, Japan’s Prime Minister Resigns, Brazil’s Former President Faces Prison, and the ECB Meets on Interest Rates

September 7 - 14, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed geopolitical week ahead for markets to keep close tabs on as there are a number of events with significant market implications. 

First, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a no confidence vote on Monday after pushing for an austerity measures to deal with France’s current fiscal deficit which is approaching 5.4%. and the overall highest deficit of any member of the Eurozone.  As things stand now, Bayrou looks like he is going to be forced from office and French President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new prime minister who can mollify the various parliamentary factions and avoid an early legislative election.  That is not going to be easy and, ultimately, it looks as if the only winner out of all this is the far-right National Rally Party.

Overnight in Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced he was stepping down after brutal legislative elections in July for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to losing its parliamentary majority.  Ishiba’s poll numbers were never very strong, but only worsened with President Trump’s tough tariffs on Japan, which Ishiba described as a “national crisis.”  Ishiba has called for the LDP to hold an emergency leadership vote to choose his successor.  No date has been set yet.

Also, this week, there will be a lot of market-impacting political action in Brazil.  Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) is convening on Monday a virtual meeting of the BRICS+ to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and how the BRICS members might form a multilateral response.   Not all of the BRICS leaders will be attending - including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others – who are instead sending aids to cover the meeting (all of which suggests Lula’s efforts are likely not to come to much in terms of an organized response).

But later in the week, the Brazilian Supreme Court will be considering whether former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and seven former aides and allies are guilty of attempting a coup in 2022 after Bolsonaro lost to Lula in elections.   Heated protests have been held around the country in support of Bolsonaro, showing how politically split the electorate is at the moment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screens, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meetings.   Market consensus believes the ECB will hold rates at 2% and is looking for more economic assurances before moving to lower rates going forward.

Also, in Europe this week, the UK releases GDP figures on Friday, Germany releases trade figures and industrial production on Monday, and France releases industrial production figures on Tuesday.

In the Americas this week, markets are looking for the August PPI report on Wednesday and the August CPI report on Thursday, probably the two most important reports out before the Federal Reserve decides on rates on September 17th.  Adding to this will be the University of Michigan consumer survey for September on Friday.  Also, this week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will unveil the 2026 budget, which will be

Turning to Asia, Japan will release its GDP on Monday and PPI on Thursday. China will be releasing trade data on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets to discuss oil output targets.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       (To Be Confirmed) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Argentina through September 10th.

·       In Brazil on Brazil's Independence Day, demonstrations will take place both in support of and in opposition to former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 8, 2025

Global

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host a virtual meeting of BRICS leaders to discuss U.S. trade policies and rally support for multilateralism.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria.  Iran’s nuclear program will be the leading issue discussed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Schoenbaum presents her administration’s draft 2026 budget; budget expected to include plans to increase tariffs on Chinese automotive, textile, and plastics imports.

·       The First Nuclear Energy Conference and Expo sponsored by American Nuclear Society and the Nuclear Energy Institute begins in Atlanta, Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July) 

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Used Car Prices (August) 

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July) 

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee is held in Beijing through September 12th.  They are expected to approve a numb er of draft laws, including a draft atomic energy law, a draft law on public health emergency response, a draft law on national parks, a draft law on the safety management of hazardous chemicals, and other pressing issues.

·       The Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting will kick off in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, bringing together leaders of the body's 18 members. During the five-day gathering, they will discuss challenges facing the region, such as climate change, transnational crime and rising geopolitical tensions between China and West. External partners including the U.S., China, Japan and Taiwan are not invited to the meeting this year.

·       The annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, organized by S&P Global, will kick off in Singapore. Hundreds of petroleum, gas, petrochemical, trading, technology and financial executives, as well as senior government officials from across the globe, are set to convene in the city-state, where issues such as the financing of future energy solutions and the impact of technological innovations and disruptions on the energy sector will be discussed.

·       The 14th Seoul Defense Dialogue (SDD) begins in Seoul.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues his state visit to Cambodia, which runs through Tuesday, as the two Southeast Asian nations look to boost relations. On the agenda are mutual concerns over transnational crime and efforts to bolster cooperation on agriculture, higher education and tourism, as well as to strengthen market access for bilateral and intra-ASEAN trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese investment firm CITIC opens a four-day forum in Hong Kong, bringing in a lineup of top global executives to discuss major issues affecting portfolios. Sessions will cover a range of topics, from cryptocurrencies and China tech to macroeconomic trends.

·       Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August) 

·       Australia Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July) 

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Motorbike Sales (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Norway holds parliamentary elections.

·       French government faces confidence vote in National Assembly.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August) 

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q2 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Second Africa Climate Summit takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Global

·        The 80th session of the U.N. General Assembly will open.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The future of peace operations - Key issues, opportunities and challenges in the context of the review of the future of all UN peace operations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Apple holds its annual media day where it is expected to launch the new iPhone 16.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/05) 

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision 

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August) 

·       EARNINGS: Oracle, Synopsys, GameStop

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Republic Day, marking the day in 1948 when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was proclaimed and Kim Il Sung was declared its premier.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2 

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August) 

·       Philippines Industrial Production (July) 

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August) 

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (August) 

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Singapore  Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Indonesia Car Sales (August) 

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will meet in London.

·       The Defense & Security Exports International (DSEI) Fair begins in London and runs through September 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August) 

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August) 

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech 

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August) 

·       France Industrial Production (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People will convene its 425th meeting in ECOSOC at UNHQ in New York. At this meeting, the Committee will receive briefings by the Permanent Observer Mission of the State of Palestine and Palestinian civil society representatives on the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/05)/ PPI (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/05)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August) 

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Chewy, Daktronics, Vince

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Semicon Taiwan 2025 opens in Taipei. The chip industry's flagship event will welcome over 1,200 companies and is expected to draw more than 100,000 visitors.

·       The 2025 Financial Review Asia Summit takes place in Sydney, Australia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July) 

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August) 

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June) 

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July) 

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July) 

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the 2025 State of the Union address in Brussels.  Later in the day, she receives European Tech and Industry CEOs for a working dinner.

·       Widespread protests are expected across France over the current budget proposal being considered by parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       The Governing Council of the European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings in Frankfurt.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Clauda Buch gives a keynote speech at the BIS Innovation Summit 2025.

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Spain Industrial Production (July) 

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July) 

·       Italy Industrial Production (July) 

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Greece Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ireland Industrial Production (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech 

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference begins in Bangui, Central African Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August) 

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1591 Committee (Sudan and whether to renew sanctions), in the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil report.

· The OECD annual report on fiscal reforms is published in Paris.

·       The OPEC Monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to convict and jail former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup to stay in power in 2022.

·       Nadine Menendez, wife of former U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, is due to be sentenced in a Manhattan district court after being convicted of helping her husband in a scheme to bribe Egyptian officials.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (September) 

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July) 

·       USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/06)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/10) 

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Adobe, Kroger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/06)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/06)/ BoJ JGB Purchases 

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September) 

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July) 

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog travels to London for meetings with UK ministers to discuss the situation in the West Bank and Gaza.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Copenhagen from September 12.

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s wife, Begona Gomez, along with one of her aides, will testify in court as part of an influence-peddling investigation.

·       Russia, Belarus hold joint military drills called 'Zapad-2025' through September 16.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       European Central Bank Monetary Policy meeting and press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion entitled "Lead, Innovate, Achieve: Championing Sustainability and Social Inclusion for 25 Years" organized by Business in the Community Ireland (BITCI) in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July) 

·       Turkey Retail Sales (July)/ Auto Production & Sales (August) 

·       ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference 

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision 

·       Germany Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Ministerial Meeting takes place in Sochi, Russia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July) 

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)   

Friday, September 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York Fashion Week (Spring-Summer) begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there this year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Canada Building Permits (July)/ Capacity Utilization Q2 

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/12) 

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (August) 

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech 

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2 

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July) 

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       India Inflation Rate (August)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/29)/ Deposit Growth (August/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August) 

·       Germany Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       France Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Turkey Current Account (July) 

·       Romania Current Account (July) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (July) 

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo VIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August) 

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts the SCO Summit and Celebrates the 80th Anniversary of the End of World War II with World Leaders, Trump’s Tariff Deals in Doubt, and Markets Focus on the Fed’s Beige Book and US Jobs Report

Summer is officially over and world capitals in the Northern Hemisphere are roaring back to work this week.  But the major geopolitical events of the week will be in China. 

President Xi Jinping is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit being held in Tianjin, China.  This will be a particularly important SCO gathering as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other leading Asian leaders will be in attendance and holding sideline meetings with Xi.  Of note, Prime Minister Modi’s sideline meeting with Xi shows continuing warming between the two nations – which has been historically frosty – as both struggle to deal with President Trump’s tough tariff regime. 

After the SCO, Xi will hold an extravaganza 80th anniversary celebration in Beijing marking the end of World War II for China.  Putin, Modi, and at least 28 other national leaders will be in attendance including North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.  The significance of his attendance is it suggests new warming in the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang which has been strained in recent years.

What both events clearly show is a growing alignment between nations that are outright hostile to the United States and the West with those nations hardest hit by the Trump tariffs, giving the combined nations a reason to work together. Seeing the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, India, Iran, Cuba, and other nations sitting together watching an enormous Chinese military parade will drive that point home.  What comes out of these meetings will likely be quite impactful on global markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Here in the US, two issues will be of major focus to markets this week.  First, the decision by a Federal Appeals Court on Friday ruled that President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is illegal.  These were put in place on “Liberation Day” on April 2nd.  The decision upholds an earlier ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and is now likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court.  But in the meantime, it puts into doubt the legality of Trump’s trade deals with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea.  Moreover, it the US Supreme Court upholds this decision, it will mean the Trump Administration will have to repay the billions of tariffs collected since April, estimated at roughly $142 billion.

The second event is the ongoing battle over whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook.  A federal judge on Friday held an emergency hearing on the matter but did not issue a ruling.  Our view is that this battle will go all the way to the Supreme Court and will likely not hold Cook back from voting at the upcoming Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on interest rates later this month.

Turning to look at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, and starting with the US, there will be a number of important reports out this week. The big events will be the Federal Reserve’s release of the Beige Book on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  Also, this week, the ISM indices will be out, giving more clarity on the manufacturing and services sectors, and the JOLTS print on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday.

In Asia, Japan releases Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations for Q2, which is expected to show as much as 3% growth year over year.   In China, the August PMIs are out on Sunday, and manufacturing data is out on Monday, while services data is out on Wednesday.

In Europe, we will see the Eurozone CPI report on Tuesday as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il are expected  to attend.  Putin will afterwards travel to Beijing for meetings with Xi.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Polish Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw and the visit the border between Poland and Belarus. She will then travel to Bulgaria to meet with Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov and visit a defense factor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Oman will implement a "golden visa" for investors and wealthy residents..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 1, 2025

Global

·        Egypt will host a G20 meeting on food security in Cairo.

·       South Korea assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Guyana holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Centre-left President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C) is likely to be re-elected. However, opposition parties will likely secure a majority in the National Assembly (legislature).

·       Today is Labor Day in the United State and Canada. It is a national holiday in both countries.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Mexican judges elected in the country's first judicial election in June will take office.

·       The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission continues its annual meeting in Panama City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Fiscal Balance (July)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs through September 2 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       The EU Parliament returns to work from summer holiday.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Lithuania to meet with President Gitana Nauseda and then visit the Lithuania and Belarus border.  She will then travel to Romania and meet with President Nicusor Dan and Prime Minister Illie Bolojan and visit the military port of Constana.

·       The British Parliament returns to work from their summer holiday.

·       Moldova begins negotiations with the EU about joining.

·       Today is Slovakia Constitution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a dinner speech at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a panel on 'Autonomy through the internal market and the capital markets union' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will chair a panel on 'Resilience, autonomy and cooperation in payments and clearing systems' at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference titled 'Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation' in Frankfurt Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)/ BoE Consumer Credit (July)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary PPI (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Mexico and Ecuador for bilateral meetings through September 4.

·       The US Congress returns to work from its August recess.

·       Brazil's Supreme Court hear legal arguments regarding attempted coup charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA Redbook (August)/30/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will meet with and give remarks to local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Japan.

·       New Zealand Export Prices Q2/ Import Prices Q2/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/02)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (August)

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Thailand Business Confidence (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (August)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will chair a panel on 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel entitled 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Flash (August)/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Italy PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lebanese Armed Forces will present a plan for Hezbollah's disarmament to Lebanon's Cabinet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations General Assembly will meet on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will host Polish President Karol Nawrocki at the White House.

·       Jamaica holds House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem gives speech at the Peterson Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Minnesota Women's Economic Roundtable.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/29)/JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/29)/EARNINGS: Salesforce, HPE, Gitlab, Dollar Tree

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2

·       Colombia Exports (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will hold a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, with 26 foreign leaders in attendance.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (August)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/22)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union's new floating price cap on Russian oil, set at 15% below the six-month average market price, will take effect.

·       The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok Russia through September 6.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcoming remarks at the 9th ESRB Conference "Broadening horizons: ESRB’s next decade of impact" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England and Warwick Business School Innovation In Money and Payments Conference.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Great Britain BoE L Mann Speech / S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Jordan PPI (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola will host its "Angola Oil & Gas" conference in Luanda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

Thursday, September 4, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, will meet with US trade negotiators in Washington today and Friday.

·       US Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran will get a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee to fill out the term of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

·       Bloomberg holds its Bloomberg Power Players New York Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before an Economic Club of New York Signature Luncheon.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before mHub Industry Disruptor Series event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August)/30/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/03) EARNINGS: Broadcom, Lululemon

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/30

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Household Spending (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark through September 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Handelsblatt banking summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

·       Hungary Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (August)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Business Confidence Q3

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Friday, September 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Wages (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Earnings (August)/ Government Payrolls (August)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (August)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Costa Rica    Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will host the 12th Japan-Australia meeting of foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo.

·       Singapore’s parliament goes into session.  This is the first gathering of parliament since the May elections when the ruling People’s Action Party won a commanding majority.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Reform holds it two-day national conference in Birmingham, England.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Global

·       There will be an OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia     Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts Putin and Modi at the SCO Meeting, Iran Returns to the (European) Negotiating Table, Trump’s Additional 25% Tariffs on India Begin, and Markets Await Key Inflation Reports

August 24 - 30, 2025

The busiest summer we can remember in a long time comes to an end this week here in the US with the Labor Day holiday.  And, proving true to its non-stop tempo, it will be another busy week around the world.  In Tianjin, China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will meet. Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts the leaders of Belarus, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and – perhaps most importantly – Russia and India. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend and meet with Xi just as President Trump seeks to push forward with Ukrainian peace talks and prepares to slap new 25% tariffs on India Wednesday (on top of the existing 25% tariffs) for buying Russian oil which helps fund the war (but, notably, not on China which also is a massive purchaser of Russian oil).   It also comes a week after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Indian officials in New Delhi to discuss ways to further de-escalate border tensions and discuss commonalities in dealing with the US.

Meanwhile, in Vienna this week, Iranian officials are expected to meet with UK, French, and German diplomats on their nuclear program.  Iran risked the three European countries triggering “snapback” sanctions on them if they did not participate.  The talks come in the wake of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressing frustration with Tehran refusing to account for the status of their refined uranium stockpiles after Israel and the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities.   IAEA officials are also expected in Washington this week to meet with US officials over the same matter.

As noted above, President Trump is expected to impose new 25% tariffs on India this week for refusing to step back from purchasing oil from Russia.  India is the second-largest purchaser of Russian oil after China.  But unlike China, India’s purchase of Russian oil has spiked by almost 50% since Russia invaded Ukraine at steep discounts and then largely resells it as refined petroleum products globally, 42 percent to countries sanctioning Russian crude.

Also this week, President Trump will host South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the White House.  It is Lee’s first meeting with Trump since being elected in early June. The meeting with Trump will be important as both leaders want to nail down important details of a new trade deal and how best to cooperate on how to deal with China.  South Korea has agreed to more than $350 billion of investment in the US, which includes $150 billion in shipbuilding and $100 billion in LNG purchases.

Lee is coming off his first meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Saturday, where they agreed to cooperate on clean energy, AI, the aging population, and ways to boost some of the lowest birth rates in the world, and working with the US on dealing with North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile programs.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screens this week, inflation is the big focus for markets.  In the US, the July PCE report on Friday will give a clearer indication of which way inflation is headed in advance of the September Federal Reserve Board interest rate decision.  Also out this week will be new home sales on Monday, pending home sales on Tuesday, and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator on Tuesday.

We would note two other important US economic/financial events this week: First, the “de minimis” exemptions end on Friday. That exemption allowed international carriers to ship goods valued at $800 or less to the US without paying duties.   The second event is Nvidia’s quarterly earnings, where markets and policy analysts will be watching for guidance from the company on their sales to China after President Trump struck a deal with the company allowing the sale of their H20 and B40 chips in exchange for a percentage of their sales to China.  But the Chinese government told local tech companies not to buy Nvidia’s chips due to “security concerns.”

In Europe, inflation is also top of mind as Germany releases the Ifo Survey on Monday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, and France's consumer confidence is out on Wednesday.    Also out this week is the European Central Bank’s minutes on Thursday. 

In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and consumer confidence reports are out on Thursday and Friday, respectively. And China’s industrial profits are out on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Elon Musk's SpaceX is set to launch its massive Starship rocket for a tenth time from Texas on Sunday to achieve several long-sought development milestones.

·       President Nicolas Maduro today is deploying militia and volunteers across Venezuela against US “threats” and is calling for civilians to join the militia and armed forces.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will hold a summit in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Economic & Financial  Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial  Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon(UNIFIL). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold closed consultations on the 1718 Committee (North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will travel to Washington, D.C. for his first meeting with President Donald Trump.  They are expected to discuss details of an emerging trade agreement to lower Washington's "reciprocal" tariffs to 15 percent.

·       A delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency will travel to Washington for high-level meetings on Iran’s nuclear program.  Iran has refused to explain what has happened to the 409 kilograms of enriched uranium the country developed following the US bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites.  Iran is also refusing to cooperate with the IAEA in accessing other key nuclear sites in the country.

·       US Navy warships are expected to arrive off the coast of Venezuela to assist in large-scale counter-narcotics operations.

·       Nigerian President Bola Tinubu will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia.

·       Today is Uruguay Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speak and participate in a panel before the Bank of Mexico Centennial Conference in Mexico City, Mexico.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)/ New Home Sales (July)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Building Permits (July)

·       Mexico Current Account Q2

·       Paraguay PPI (July)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia hosts “Super Garuda Shield, a joint military exercise with a ceremony in Jakarta co-hosted by the Indonesian and U.S. armed forces.  The annual drill will run for two weeks. Fifteen countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, are expected to take part, with a live-fire exercise scheduled to be held in Baturaja, Sumatra.

· Today is the Day of Songun, which is observed in North Korea. This holiday commemorates the start of the military-first rule in the nation, under the leadership of Kim Jong-il.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Evergrande will be delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

·       Japan Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Today is the Summer Bank Holiday in England and Wales.

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

·       Spain PPI (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate & Current Conditions & Expectations (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization of Islamic Cooperation will host an extraordinary meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on expanded Israeli military operations and a mounting humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambia hosts health ministers for the 75th session of the World Health Organization’s Regional Committee for Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and senior members of his Cabinet will travel to Germany to meet with Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the Central Bank of Mexico Conference in Mexico City, Mexico.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil Current Account (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July), Earnings: Scotiabank and BMO

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (July)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Redbook (August/23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (June)/ House Price Index (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (August)/ Money Supply (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/22), Earnings: Prudential

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Korean and U.S. militaries will hold the joint Ulchi Freedom Shield drills in South Korea through Aug. 28.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Singapore     Industrial Production (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran is expected to hold nuclear talks with French, British, and German diplomats in Vienna, Austria.  The three European countries have said they could re-activate UN sanctions on Iran under a snapback rule set in place unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table today.  Iran is refusing to disclose to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) what has happened to the 409 kilograms of enriched uranium the country developed following the US bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites.  Iran is also refusing to cooperate with the IAEA in accessing other key nuclear sites in the country.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       France Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will panelist at a conference commemorating the 100th Anniversary of the Central Bank of Mexico in Mexico City, Mexico.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (August)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the situation in Gaza.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s additional 25% tariffs on imports from India go into effect today.  Trump has said they are a penalty for buying Russian oil and raise the total tariffs on the South Asian nation to 50%, among the highest globally.

·       Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar travels to Washington for meetings with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 

·       Brazilian Vice President and Trade Minister Geraldo Alckmin will lead a delegation to Mexico to meet with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

·       The political campaign period for Argentina's Oct. 26 midterm legislative elections will begin. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nvidia reports second-quarter earnings. Markets will be focused on guidance from the company with regard to China after receiving permission from the Trump Administration to sell H20 chips to China in return for 15 percent of profits earned there.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/22)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/22)/ Fed Barkin Speech

·       Brazil Bank Lending (July)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (July)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (July), Earnings: RBC and EQB.

·       Colombia Business Confidence (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       APEC Energy Ministers will meet in Busan, South Korea through August 28.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)/ Construction Work Done Q2/ Monthly CPI Indicator (July)/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (July)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Moldova.  In honor of the day, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will visit the country to celebrate.

·       Spain’s Tomatina food fight festival takes place in Buñol, Spain, the world’s biggest food fight.  More than 20,000 people come to the town (whose population is 9,000) to throw tomatoes at each other.  In 2015 (the last time they checked), an estimated 320,000 pounds of tomatoes were thrown.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence SEP

·       Hungary Gross Wage (June)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (August)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (July)/ Jobseekers Total (July)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (August)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ Corporate Profits (June)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Real Wage Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (July)/ GDP (June)/ GDP (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Tanzania's electoral commission will announce which presidential candidates are confirmed to run in the country's Oct. 29 general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino will lead a business delegation to Brazil and meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner in Miami, Florida.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August)/ Net Payrolls (July)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Current Account Q2/ Average Weekly Earnings (June), Earnings: CIBC and Toronto-Dominion

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/23)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Pending Home Sales (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/22)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/27), Earnings: Dell, Marvell, Autodesk, Pernod Ricard

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia and Indonesia will hold a "two-plus-two" meeting of their foreign and defense ministers in Canberra. The biannual forum last took place in 2023, when current Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto attended as defense minister. This year's meeting will be the ninth since the format was launched in 2006 to strengthen ties between the two neighbors.

·       Bitcoin Asia 2025, one of Asia’s largest conferences, begins in Hong Kong.  Speakers are due to include Eric Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Yamaguchi, Japan.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/23)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (August)

·       Central Bank of South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q2/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure/ Private Capital Expenditure Q2

·       Malaysia PPI (July)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (July)

·       India Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Earnings: RHB Banking Group, Axiata Group, CITIC Securities, China Southern

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark though August 30.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank releases its July Monetary Policy Meeting minutes

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (July)/ Loans to Companies (July)/ Loans to Households (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)/ Economic Sentiment (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Industrial Sentiment (August)/ Selling Price Expectations (August)/ Services Sentiment (August)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/       Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Confidence Index (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/22)

·       Italy Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Industrial Sales (June)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (July)

·       Greece Total Credit (July)

·       Spain Business Confidence (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (July)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, August 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States will end the de minimis tariff exemption for small-value imported parcels under $800.

·       Elon Musk faces a court deadline to answer a US Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit over allegations he improperly benefited from a late disclosure of his purchases of shares of Twitter in 2022.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (July)/ Nominal Budget Balance (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP Implicit Price Q2/ Budget Balance (June), Earnings: Laurentian Bank

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (July)/ Personal Income (July)/ Personal Spending (July)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (July)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Chicago PMI (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/29)

·       Chile Copper Production (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Cement Production (July)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand's Constitutional Court will rule on whether to remove Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from her position over a leaked phone call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, in which she referred to a Thai army commander as the "opposite side." In the wake of the leak, she was criticized for showing a lack of responsibility and integrity, as well as putting the country's sovereignty at risk.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Japan for an annual summit with his counterpart, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The two are seeking to bolster trade and security cooperation.

·       Samoa holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD releases quarterly earnings.  Markets are watching closely to get a deeper sense of how intense the growing electric car sector is dealing with price competition hitting new levels.  Also reporting today will be Alibaba, the Bank of China, China Construction Bank, the Agricultural Bank if China, ICBC, COSCO Shipping, China Eastern, and Air China.

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index

·       South Korea Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (July)/ Jobs/applications ratio (July)/ Tokyo CPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Construction Orders (July)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Australia Housing Credit (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Export Prices (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Private Consumption (July)/ Private Investment (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       India Government Budget Value (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/15)/ Deposit Growth (August/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/22)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will attend the 25th Franco-German Council of Ministers in Berlin, Germany.  It is expected that the two countries will discuss joint defense projects and trade negotiations.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Gymnich, Germany, from August 30.

·       Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha will visit Slovenia for bilateral talks.

·       Today is the anniversary of the Slovak National Uprising, which took place in 1944 against the Nazis.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will deliver remarks at the Crusos Europeos de Verano in Pamplona, Spain.

·       Great Britain Car Production (July)

·       Germany Retail Sales (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Unemployed Persons (August)/ Unemployment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (August)/ Bavaria CPI (August)/ Brandenburg CPI (August)/ Hesse CPI (August)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (August)/ Saxony CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (July)

·       France Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Household Consumption (July)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ PPI (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Current Account (June)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (August)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Greece PPI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Ukraine Current Account (July)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (July)          

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, August 30, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor, commemorating the referendum that took place in 1999, giving the island nation greater autonomy from Indonesia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial  Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkey Victory Day, also known as Turkish Armed Forces Day.  It celebrates Turkey’s victory over the Greeks in 1922 at the Battle of Dumlupinar.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China, hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to attend.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Threatens Greater Sanctions on Russia While Sending An Envoy to Talk With Putin – and Nuclear Subs Off Russia’s Coast, The Tariff Wars Intensify for Some Countries, and the Bank of England Decides on Rates

August 3 - 10, 2025

It is summer holiday time in most northern hemisphere countries, with heads of state and parliaments out for most of the month of August, getting some rest and relaxation.   But there is still plenty going on geopolitically – perhaps the most important being President Trump’s ratcheting up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to sit down and start negotiating a peace treaty with Ukraine.  Trump has at one point given Putin until Thursday to agree to talks or the US will consider massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil exports.

Additionally, last week, Trump announced he was sending two nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” in response to remarks from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.  Medvedev holds the mostly ceremonial post of Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council – an institution with no power or decision-making ability – had said on a Telegram posting that "If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path” and that Trump should remember “how dangerous the fabled ‘Dead Hand” can be” – a reference to a secret Russian command system designed to launch nuclear missiles if the Russian leadership is killed by an enemy strike.  Medvedev is known for his highly provocative tweets toward the West, which tend to get more threatening and wacky as the evening progresses (if you get what we mean).

The other big geopolitical event of the week is President Trump’s tough new tariffs on Brazil, Switzerland, India, Canada, and other nations that have not successfully completed negotiations with the US going into effect.  And the other 10-15 percent tariffs on those major trading partners that have cut a deal with the US are expected to go into effect, too.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, aside from the trade tariffs and the prospect of new deals being announced, the big event of the week is the Bank of England deciding on interest rates on Thursday.  There are very few central banker speeches this week (perhaps everyone is saving their voices for speeches at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium August 22-24). 

 The major economic reports in the US this week include factory orders on Monday and services ISM and trade balance data on Tuesday.  Also coming out are nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs due Thursday.

 Turning to Asia, China’s trade balance is published on Thursday, and inflation figures on Friday.  Japan reports wage growth on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday.

And in Europe, Germany releases inflation figures, GDP growth, and factory order figures on Wednesday, while Switzerland releases its CPI on Monday.   Europe will also see a slew of corporate earnings reports this week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 3, 2025

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting (virtual) is held.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos begins a state visit in India.

·       China and Russia begin Joint Sea-2025 naval exercise off the coast of Vladivostok in the Sea of Japan through Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian concludes a two-day visit to Pakistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is in recess for the month of August.  They return on September 2.

·       Today is Natal Day in Canada, which honors the province of Nova Scotia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (June)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

·       USA Factory Orders (June)/ Total Vehicle Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will hold a Diet is expected to meet to discuss the recent U.S.-Japan trade deal, which may spur new trade demands from Tokyo.

·       South Korea will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's Digital and Artificial Intelligence Ministerial Meeting through August 6.

·       The Thailand-Cambodia General Border Committee will meet in Malaysia through August 7 in an effort to further solidify a peace treaty.

·       Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will visit Egypt and Angola through August 9.

·       Today is Cooks Island Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is on summer recess and returns August 22.  Meanwhile, the UK Parliament is in recess until September 1, the French Parliament is in recess until September 1, and the German Bundestag (Parliament) is in recess until September 9, .

·       Today is the Summer Bank Holiday in Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania PPI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (July)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

·       France New Car Registrations (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog will begin a three-day visit to the Baltic countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (June)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Founder’s Day in Ghana, honoring Dr. Kwame Nkumak who was the country’s first president.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Global

·       The Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries will take place in Awaza, Turkmenistan through August 8.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff is expected to arrive in Moscow for talks with senior Russian officials seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August/02)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services PMI (July)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil & Gasoline Stock Change (August/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

·       Colombia Exports (June)/ PPI (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will hold a short Diet session today, during which the ruling party's right wing may table a vote to seek Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ouster.

·       The Ketagalan Forum on Indo-Pacific Security begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)/ Household Spending (June)          

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (July)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ Vehicle Sales (July)

·       France Industrial Production (June)/ Budget Balance (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Spain Industrial Production (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Serbia PPI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana’s President John Mahama hosts African political leaders and policymakers at the Africa Health Sovereignty Summit in Accra.

·       Today is Independence Day in Burkina Faso.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (July)

Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1540 Committee (the UN Security Council committee focused on preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The new U.S. 40% tariff on Brazilian goods goes into effect at midnight. which compounds the current 10% duty, goes into force. Also, going into force will be of higher custom duties on EU, Switzerland, Thailand, and Vietnam.

·       Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez Morales gives press conference about waterway's future as BlackRock seeks to secure the purchase of two ports on either end of the canal.

·       Today is Independence Day in Bolivia, a national holiday.

·       Today is Independence Day in Jamaica.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the U.S and Global Economy at A Central Bank Perspective on the Evolving Global Landscape Conference (virtual) hosted by the Reserve Bank of Boston.  Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins will also speak.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/01)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/01)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.

·       Philippine senators are set to convene to decide whether to proceed with the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, a week after the country's top court dismissed a previous impeachment attempt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q2/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Labour Costs Index Q2/ Participation Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (July)/ Ai Group Construction Index (July)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (July)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       The Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (July/25)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the earliest deadline given by President Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin to respond to demands for a peace deal to end the Ukraine War.

·       Poland's president-elect, Karol Nawrocki,  officially takes office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)

·       Germany Factory Orders (June)/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Retail Sales (June)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls / HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        The U.S.-Africa Energy Forum will take place in Houston, Texas, through August 7.

·       Today is the deadline for banks, securities dealers, and investors to submit proposals for raising $500 million to finance South Africa’s 2025-26 fiscal year plans.

·       The African Development Bank and the Central African Republic’s government inaugurate new water and sanitation facilities in Bangui.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS).

·       The 12th annual The World Games, a quadrennial international multi-sport event featuring events not contested at the Olympic Games, begins in Chengdu, capital of the Sichuan province in China and runs through, August 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Approximately 70 unions will join together to protest against Argentine President Javier Milei’s economic reform policy. Widespread travel disruptions are expected.

·       The US Federal Communications Commission holds an open meeting that will include discussion of space.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic's takes part in a virtual fireside chat during a session with the Florida Institute of CFOs.

·       Brazil PPI (June)/ Car Production (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/02)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August)/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/06)/ Used Car Prices (July)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (July)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai International Semiconductor Tech & Application Innovation Expo begins and runs through August 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (June)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/02)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

·       Australia RBA Connolly Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Private House Approvals

·       Philippines Industrial Production (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (June)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (June)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)/ Treasury Cash Balance (July)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (July)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Ivory Coast.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Friday, August 8, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to speak at a Mississippi Delta event.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (July)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Wages (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/08)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Prominent Hong Kong democracy activist Joshua Wong once again faces trial, after he was charged in June for allegedly conspiring to collude with foreign forces. Wong, who was already sentenced last November to four years and eight months in prison for conspiracy to subvert state power, could see his prison time increase by anywhere from three years to a life sentence as a result of the new national security charge.

·       The World Robot Conference takes place in Beijing, China.  More than 1,500 exhibits, 200 companies and more than 50 makers of humanoid robots will be on display.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (June)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q2

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       China Current Account Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (July)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Greece Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (June)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the At the Kansas Bankers Association (KBA) CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Singapore National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference will take place in Bangui.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump to Make “Major Statement” on Ukraine, Japan Holds Major Elections, German Chancellor Merz Travels to London To Sign the UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty, and the G20 Finance Ministers Meet in South Africa

July 13 - 20, 2025

It will be another hectic week on the geopolitical stage as President Trump has promised to make a “major statement” on Ukraine on Monday.  The announcement, which is expected to be a substantial commitment of new military aid to Ukraine, comes as the President meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington.  If Trump does, in fact, announce a sizeable commitment of weapons to Kyiv, it will be a major policy shift for the President and suggest a significant new turn in the war, not to mention Trump’s growing irritation with Russian President Vladimir Putin for refusing to engage in peace negotiations. 

All this comes as President Trump continues to press forward with aggressive tariff threats, announcing on Friday that he is putting new tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, and Canada.   Both Mexico and Canada are going to be hit with new 30 percent tariffs for fentanyl smuggling into the US, according to a letter Trump posted on Truth Social, his media platform.   The EU will also face new 30 percent tariffs, according to Trump’s letter, for failing to deal in good faith with the US in ongoing trade negotiations.

Also, this week, markets will be watching Japan’s Upper House elections to understand the further stability of  Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s ruling government and what sort of flexibility the Bank of Japan has on raising interest rates.  Japan’s opposition parties are advocating for tax cuts and looser monetary policy, and if they gain substantially in Sunday’s elections, the central bank will feel significant pressure not to raise rates.

Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos next Sunday for trade talks while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka.  While no formal bilateral meetings between Bessent and Japanese negotiators have been announced, it is expected that he will sit down with them while there to try and unlock stalled trade talks.

In Europe this week, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz makes his first visit to London since being elected in May. While there, he will sign a new UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty designed to significantly ramp up mutual defense and economic cooperation, all part of greater Europe’s effort rapidly build up military capabilities in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and Russian President Putin’s continuous demands for Eastern European countries to leave NATO.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, G20 finance and central bank governors meet in South Africa.  No significant announcements or outcomes are expected from those meetings at this time.

In terms of major economic reports this week, the highly anticipated US June CPI report is out on Tuesday, telling markets if there is any new inflationary movement as a result of the Trump tariffs.  The PPI report will be out on Wednesday, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey results for July will be released on Friday. Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, along with industrial production numbers.  And the June retail sales come out on Thursday.

While we normally do not cover earnings, we note that many of the largest US banks will be releasing earnings this week (JP Morgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs).  Markets will be looking to see how strong their earnings are as another indicator of overall US economic strength.

Turning to Asia, China’s Q2 GDP and June retail activity data are out on Tuesday. Japan releases the Bank of Japan’s Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior for June on Monday, the June customs trade data on Thursday, and the CPI figures on Friday.

In Europe this week, the UK will release CPI data on Wednesday and labor market reports on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues a six-day visit to China (which began on Saturday).  Albanese has brought a large delegation of Australian businessmen in the hope of signing a number of trade deals.

·       Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to China for the first time in five years for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  Jainshankar will then travel on to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Council of Foreign Ministers July 14-15.  The Chinese and Indian Foreign Ministers are expected to discuss Indian-Pakistan tensions, rare earth supplies to India, the Dalai Lama’s succession, and the resumption of direct flights between the two countries.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Pyongyang, South Korea.

·       Australia will host the Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 military drills with 18 other participating nations, including the United States and Japan, through August 4.

·       Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words, enemies of Imperial Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.

·       Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) and the UN Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the  
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).  

·       The UN’s  High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) will open its session in the General Assembly Hall at the UN Headquarters in New York. The Forum will continue until 23 July. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will be in Washington through July 15 for meetings with President Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.  President Trump, in an interview last week, said he would “have a major statement to make on Russia” today.  It is believed he will formally announce new military aid programs for Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (May)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers meets in Tianjin through July 15.  They are expected to discuss regional trade and security matters.  There are nine members of the SCO: the Republic of India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People's Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan.

·       The China-EU Sixth High-Level Environment and Climate Dialogue begins in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (June)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (June)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Tertiary Industry Index (May)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ New Yuan Loans (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (June)/ Total Social Financing (June)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (May)

·       India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  EU trade ministers are expected to discuss the state of trade negotiations with the US, EU-China trade relations, and other major issues.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  The agenda includes an overview of the current marketplace and an EU-wide initiative to diversify protein sources for food and feed.

·       The first-ever EU-Central America Association Council meets in Brussels.  The meeting brings together leaders from the EU and six Central American countries - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. 

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.  Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is the guest of honor, per an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in an exchange of views at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Hungary Construction Output (May)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

·       Romania Current Account (May)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (June)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Global

·       OPEC releases its monthly report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will speak at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

·       The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for former National Security Advisor Mike Walz to serve as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

·       The Aspen Security Forum begins in Aspen, Colorado.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “Expanding Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before an event of the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.

·       Canada Housing Starts (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)

·       USA Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)/ Redbook (July/12)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/11)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (July)

·       China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)/ GDP (June)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/15)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas will chair the meeting of EU Foreign Ministers.  The primary agenda items will be Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and will include a video discussion with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha.  The ministers will also discuss the situation in Georgia, the Middle East (Gaza, Israel, and Iran), and the New Pact for the Mediterranean.

·       UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives annual Mansion House speech in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner at Mansion House in London.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Romania Industrial Production (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ Industrial Production (May)/ ECB Buch Speech

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

·       Serbia Building Permits (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (June)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (May)/ Mining Production (May)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is convening an informal meeting on Cyprus at UN Headquarters. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The inauguration of Jennifer Geerlings-Simons as the new President of Suriname is held in Paramiribo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.

·       The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book/ USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/11)/ PPI (June)/Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/11)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing begins and runs through Saturday. Nvidia will take part for the first time, according to state media reports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Export Prices (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission will present a sweeping new EU budget reform package. This swill include proposals for the 2028-2035 EU multiannual financial framework that will include closer alignment on strategic priorities such as rearmament, industrial competition, and tech policy.

·       There will be informal meetings of EU Research Ministers and EU Ministers for Internal Markets and Industry in Brussels through July 18.

·       The Foreign Ministers of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine – the so-called “Lublin Triangle” – will meet in Lublin, Lithuania.

·       German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and French counterpart Eric Lombard meet and hold a press conference in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (May)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (May)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (May)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (June)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (June)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (May)

·       Russia PPI (June)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambia will hold an International Investment Conference in Lusaka through July 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (May)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

Global

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will begin two days of meetings in Zimbali, South Africa through July 18.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (ending hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ / NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in South Korea, which is not a national holiday anymore as of 2008.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (June)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/12)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Employment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (June)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to London for his first official meeting since taking office in May.  He will meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and will also sign the UK–Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty that will include significant mutual defense and economic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (June)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (May)

·       Serbia Current Account (May)

·       Belarus GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (May)

Friday, July 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Housing Starts (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/18)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (July/04)/ Deposit Growth (July/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Romanian President Nicuşor Dan in Berlin, Germany.

·       EU Immigration Ministers will gather in Berlin to discuss asylum rules.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (June)

·       Euro Area Current Account (May)/ Construction Output (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (May)

·       Turkey Business Confidence Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

·       Slovakia Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 19, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka.  It is unclear at this point whether Bessent will hold bilateral meetings on trade with Japanese officials while there.

·       Today is Liberation Day in Nicaragua, a national holiday celebrating the beginning of the hostilities pushing the Somoza family from power.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos travels to Washington for meetings with President Trump through July 22.

·       Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.  124 of the 248 members are up for election in the National Diet where they serve six-year terms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (July)

·       Japan Upper House Election

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The BRICS Leaders’ Summit Is Held in Brazil, The Quad Foreign Ministers Meet in Washington, China’s Foreign Minister Travels to the EU, and the ECB Holds the European Central Bank Forum

June 29 - July 6, 2025

This coming Sunday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) hosts the 17th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro.   The meeting will comprise most of the leadership of original member states – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – plus the leaders from five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.  Nine other countries have been designated “partner countries,” and their leaders are likely to attend.  Lula has set the theme of the Summit as “Strengthening Global South Cooperation for More Inclusive Sustainable Governance,” and he is expected to significantly address multiple challenges to Western political and economic dominance, including the dominance of the US dollar.

However, the likely outcomes of the Summit were cut down this past week when both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced they were not attending. Xi said he had a “scheduling conflict,” and Putin is worried he could get arrested for war crimes he’s ordered in Ukraine.  Not having these two at the Summit has already taken considerable energy out of the event.

Meanwhile, in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts the foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan for a meeting of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue).  The meeting could prove to be quite revealing about the future of relations between the US and the other QUAD members.  It comes on the heels of the US canceling a meeting this coming week with the Japanese defense and foreign counterparts after senior US defense officials, led by Defense Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, demanded Japan massively boost its defense spending, much more than had been previously requested. 

Colby also announced a review of the enormous joint project with Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines, a move which has angered Australian leadership.

Also in Washington this week, Congress continues to battle over President Trump’s signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  As of this writing, the US Senate is expected to vote late Sunday or early Monday morning on the bill.  The House is looking to vote on what the Senate sends them, either late Tuesday or Wednesday, meeting President Trump’s July 4th deadline.

We would also note that Canada celebrates Canada Day on Monday, and the US celebrates Independence Day on Friday.  A wonderful week to celebrate independence and liberty!

Looking at the global financial markets this week, the big event markets are looking at is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2025 being held in Portugal.  We think of it as the European version of the annual Jackson Hole event the Fed hosts in August. The ECB Forum will have a lot of interesting speeches and panels. Fed Chair Jay Powell will be one of the participants and speakers.

Also this week, the ECB will be releasing the minutes from their last interest rate meeting this week, too.  Staying in Europe, the major economic releases there this week include the Eurozone’s, Germany’s and Italy’s CPI prints are out this week.  Germany also releases factor orders this week.

In Asia, China releases its latest PMI report as well as the Caixin indicators.  Japan industrial production for May is out this week, along with the Bank of Japan’s Q2 Tankan Survey. 

Bringing it back to the US, the June jobs report is out Thursday after the JOLTS report is released Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday.   Also out this week is the June ISM indices on Tuesday and international trade balance and factory orders for May on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile’s ruling left-wing voters head to the polls to select their candidate for president for the upcoming November elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/M3 Money Supply (May)/Private Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN 4th International Conference on Financing for Development begins in Sevilla, Spain and runs through July 3.

·       The BRICS 34d Sherpas Meeting takes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil through July 4 in advance of the upcoming BRICS Leaders Meeting which begins on Sunday, July 6.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) and also, to the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (regarding the Golan Heights).

·       The World Trade Organization Trade and Environment Week conference begins in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand will have a trade team in Washington to negotiate a trade deal with the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before an MNI Livestreamed Connect Video Conference.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       USA Chicago PMI (June)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn/ Soy/ Wheat (June)/

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (April)

·       Costa Rica Current Account Q1

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi begin a visit to Europe where he will hold bilateral meetings in Brussels with EU officials and take part in the 13th round of China-EU High-Level Strategic Dialogue, then Germany, and finally in France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Japan Industrial Production (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Construction Orders (May)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (June)/ Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Totality Dwelling Prices (June)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (June)

·       China NBS General/ Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption & Investment (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/Government Budget Value (May)/ Current Account Q1/ External Debt Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Kyrgyzstan for bilateral meetings.

·       The 15th City Week 2025 conference begins in London and runs through July 2.  The event is organized in partnership with the UK Government, the City of London Corporation, TheCity UK, UK Finance and leading City institutions.

·       The Wimbledon tennis tournament begins in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank hosts the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.  There are multiple panels and speeches scheduled for the conference which runs through Wednesday.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory speech at the opening reception of ECB Forum on Central Banking 2025 "Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at a conference organized by Instituto Atlántico de Gobierno (IADG) in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (June)/ Bavaria CPI (June)/ Brandenburg CPI (June)/ Hesse CPI (June)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (June)/ Saxony CPI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ BoE Consumer Credit (May)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (May)/ M4 Money Supply (May)/ Net Lending to Individuals (May)

·       Hungary PPI (May)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

·       Poland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Spain Current Account (April)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Total Credit (May)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (June)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (May)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lebanese Parliament commences a new legislative session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Abuja, Nigeria the 24th annual NOG Sub Saharan Energy Sector Conference takes place through July 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Budget Balance (May)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Global

·       Pakistan takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts the Quad Foreign Ministers in Washington.  The foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan will discuss mutual security issues.

·       Today is Canada Day, a national holiday.  Markets are closed.

·       In New York City, Democratic Mayoral candidate is expected to be declared the final winner of the Democratic mayoral primary.

·       Today is “Ketikoti” – Emancipation Day – in Suriname celebrating when slaver was abolished.

·       Today is Territory Day in the British Virgin Islands, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

·       USA Redbook (June/28)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)/ JOLTs Job Openings (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (June)/ Construction Spending (May)/ JOLTs Job Quits (May)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/27)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam will cut the number of provinces and cities to 34 from 63, in the country's biggest reform in nearly four decades. The government is aiming to increase efficiency, cut costs and reduce the number of civil servants across government bodies as it seeks to streamline the state apparatus and boost growth.

·       Today in China is Founding Day of the Chinese Communist Party.

·       Today is Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, the anniversary marking when the UK handed the island back to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2/ Building Permits (May)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/ Commodity Prices (June)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2/ Tankan Large Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ Small Outlook and Index Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Business Confidence Q2

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Bank Lending (May)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (June)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The British Parliament is expected to hold a highly contentious vote on welfare reform.

·       Denmark takes up the EU presidency for the next six months.

·       In Russia, a country-wide increase of energy, gas, water and heating supply prices for households.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in a Strategic Dialogue with the World Economic Forum and global business leaders in Brussels.

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz receives Luxembourg's Prime Minister Luc Frieden with military honors followed by a press conference

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey begins a the new 3-year chair of the Financial Stability Board.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a keynote address at City Week 2025.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Green Gilt 2053

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (May)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (May)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing (June)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ New Car Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Germany Unemployed Persons (June)/ Unemployment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Flash (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Ukraine Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Burundi, a national holiday.

·       Today is Ghana Republic Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Sir Seretse Khama Day in Botswana, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (June)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (June)

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Global

·       The OECD Green Growth and Development Forum begins in Paris. The two-day event will assess how forests and agriculture can help meet climate targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The  66th Ordinary Meeting of the Common Market Council and Summit of Presidents of Mercosur and Associated States begins in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendara Modi begins visits to Trinidad and Tobago, Argentina, and Brazil through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June)/ Industrial Production (May)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/27)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/27)/ Challenger Job Cuts (June)/ ADP Employment Change (June)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/27)/ Total Vehicle Sales (June)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (June)

·       Philippines PPI (May)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (June)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (May)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Space Forum begins in Brussels and runs through July 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives the keynote speech at the Frankfurt Banking Summit 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills vives. Keynote speech at City Week 2025 on “The Bank of England’s Approach to Innovation in Digital Assets and Payments.”

·       Romania PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       France Budget Balance (May)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Great Britain Treasury Gilt 2028

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (July)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Corporate Profits (April)/ Real Wage Growth (April)/ Retail Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (April)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/28)/ Participation Rate (June)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, The upper house election campaign in Japan will officially begin, with voters set to cast their ballots on July 20. Of the chamber's 248 seats, 125 will be up for grabs. As Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito could not secure a majority in the lower house election last year, this election could have a major impact on the operations of the government..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Jajimie Takata will give a speech to local business leaders in Mie, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/28)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (June)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Belarus (which really isn’t independent..).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes accounts of its last monetary policy meeting.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/27)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Jordan PPI (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q1

Friday, July 4, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 3rd Meeting of Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Deputies takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       The BRICS Business Forum takes place in Brasilia, Brazil through July 5.

·       The UN is closed as part of the 4th of July celebration in the US.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the United States, a national holiday, and financial markets are closed.

· In Cuba, the Communist Party holds a plenary session to address the island's ongoing economic crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (June)

·       Colombia Exports (May)/ PPI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Republic Day in the Philippines, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Current Account (May)

·       Japan Household Spending (May)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (May)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (June/20)/ Deposit Growth (June/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The EU–Moldova Summit will be held in Chișinău, Moldova.  European Council president António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, his counterpart at the European Commission, will meet Maia Sandu, the Moldovan president. It is expected they will discuss the country’s future in the EU and its sovereignty amid Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will meet with German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the International Monetary Fund OEDNE/World Bank Group EDS19 Constituency Meeting in Luxembourg.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives s public lecture at the London School of Economics on the natural rate of interest rates.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Germany Factory Orders (May)/ HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (May)

·       France Industrial Production (May)/ HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       Spain Industrial Production (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (June)/ / PPI (May)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (June)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (May)

·       Serbia PPI (June)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/     Balance of Trade Prel (June)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Rwanda Liberation Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Global

·       The 1st BRICS Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors Meeting will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Venezuela (which is not independent or free…).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa-Spain Cooperation Summit begins in Madrid.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Armenia, a national holiday.

·       The 112th Tour de France cycling race begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Algeria's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 6, 2025

Global

The 15th  BRICS Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through July 7.  Eleven members are expected to be represented.  However, neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Russian President Vladimir Putin are going to attend.

The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held (virtually)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 49th CARICOM (Caribbean Community) Heads of Government Meeting begins in Montego Bay, Jamaica and runs through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dalai Lama is expected to reveal his succession plan via a video announcement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Comoros, a national holiday.

·       Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

June 22 - 29, 2025

The US Attacked Iran – Now What?, The NATO Summit Convenes, Followed by the European Council, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Defense Ministers Meet, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before Congress

As we write this, the world is waking up to learn that President Donald Trump ordered the attack on three Iranian nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – and, reportedly, a number of other strategic Iranian sites.   According to Trump Administration officials, the attacks “obliterated” the targets, but US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Daniel Caine said it was “way too early” to comment on whether Iran retained nuclear capabilities.  Damage assessments are being conducted by the US and Isreal, and we are likely to learn a lot more of the effectiveness of the attacks in the coming days. 

Additionally, as Israeli Defense Force (IDF) sources have said, “it is too early to tell” if Iran moved any fissile materials from Fordow before the strike.  What we are watching for now are three things:

1. What will Iran do to retaliate against the US?  Will they attack US forces stationed in the region (there are close to 50,000 US troops stationed at a number of bases in the Middle East).

2. Will Iran move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz (as Iran’s Parliament voted to do this morning), paralyzing energy shipping and further raising tensions in the region with Gulf State nations.  Only the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can make that decision, which ultimately would severely damage Iran’s already brittle economy.

3. Will Iran dare to activate suspected sleeper cells in the US and elsewhere to attack?  Do they even have such cells in the US?

As all this takes place, the 2025 NATO Summit begins on Tuesday in the Netherlands, bringing together the leaders of all the NATO members, including President Trump.  Other non-NATO heads of state have been invited to attend, including the Prime Ministers of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Ukraine, as well as the Presidents of South Korea, the European Council, and the European Commission. 

There are two things’ markets should watch at the Summit:  Will Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee get a chance to talk with Trump on the sidelines to secure trade agreements (something they had hoped to do at the G7 but did not happen as Trump left the summit early to return to Washington to deal with Iran).  And second, will NATO members collectively agree to an increase in defense spending targets from 2% of GDP to 3.5% for defense spending, with an additional 1.5% for infrastructure spending, bringing the level to 5% of GDP?  And by what timeline – 2030 or 2035?

European leaders will then roll into a European Council meeting on Thursday, where the Middle East will again dominate the agenda, as will defense spending, and trying to figure out a trade agreement with the US.

Elsewhere in the world this week, the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be meeting in China. The SCO is composed of Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, and again, the situation in Iran will dominate the agenda.  But it is expected that the SCO may touch on ongoing border tensions between India and China, ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India, and Ukraine. 

In Washington this week, the two big events will be the US Senate’s continued efforts to hammer out a compromise among Senate Republicans on President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) has said he wants to bring it to a vote this week but we believe it likely to slip into next week as Congress is going to be distracted by President Trump’s Iran action along with real disagreements on the substance of the bill, mostly around state and local taxes (SALT) exemptions and Section 899 which would give the US Treasury the power to place tough taxes on foreign corporations from countries that place heavy taxes on US corporations.

The second event markets are going to be watching closely is Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s testimony Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee on the state of the economy.  With all that is going on geopolitically and with President Trump’s tariffs, these should be lively hearings (to say the least).

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond Powell’s testimony, markets will be listening closely to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s comments Monday before the EU Parliament and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony before the House of Lords. 

In the US, the May PCE report is released this week, as well as Q1 GDP numbers. And the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is out on Tuesday.

In Asia, Japan’s June CPI is released on Friday, as well as the Bank of Japan’s minutes from their last meeting on Wednesday.  China’s May Industrial profits are out on Friday, too.

In Europe,  the Eurozone’s June economic sentiment reports are out on Friday, Germany’s Ifo Survey on Tuesday, and France and Spain’s June CPI on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is scheduled to visit Israel.  He will address the Israeli Knesset (NOTE: Johnson’s trip may be canceled because of the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Iran.)

·       Today is the tentative date Telsa will launch their new Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a monetary policy insights panel before the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections take place.  There are 127 seats representing the 14 million residents of Tokyo open for election.

·       Today is the 60th anniversary of Japan and South Korea establishing diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Business Summit begins in Luanda, Angola.  More than 1,500 attendees including a number of African government leaders, are expected to attend the three-day event.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) followed by consultations..

·       The 7th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting begins in Milan, Italy.  The Meeting is also the 27th meeting of the Committee for Environmental Protection — running until July 3.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair  Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy and banking at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds a virtual discussion with business and community leaders on "the effects that labor market conditions, inflation, and interest rates have on them.”  The event is being hosted by SUNY Schenectady Community College.  New York Fed President John Williams will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

·       Monday, June 24, 12:10 p.m. Central Time – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Milwaukee Business Journal Mid-Year Outlook 2025.

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash/ Existing Home Sales (May)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Paraguay PPI (May)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India is expected to re-open its airspace to commercial Pakistani planes following the recent fighting between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The agenda includes an update and discussion of the situation in Ukraine, China and European security issues, the situation in the Middle East and Libya, and the situation in Georgia.

·       The EU-Canada Summit takes in Brussels.  Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with EU President Ursala von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.  The topics will cover the current geopolitical situation, economy and trade, and a number of sectorial issues they can improve on cooperation.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through June 24. the Council will seek to reach a general approach on a regulation on a forest monitoring framework for resilient European forests. The proposal aims to establish a high-quality forest monitoring system to track progress on achieving EU targets and policy objectives concerning forests.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through June 24 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Net Zero Delivery Summit, hosted by the City of London Corporation, part of London Climate Action Week, takes place in London. Speakers include Lord Mayor of the City of London Alastair King.

·       Today is Victory Day in Estonia, a national holiday celebrating when the country sought independence following the end of World War I.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives  an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (April)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)

·       Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April & May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya this will be followed by consultations. In the afternoon there will be a briefing on non-proliferation. 

·       The Internet Governance Forum Summit takes place in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to present a process for adding additional tariffs on auto parts.

·       The New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on monetary policy before the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025.

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City holds a virtual discussion on "the current state of the agricultural economy and future prospects, part of its "Fed Listens" series.  Speakers will include Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr and Jeff Schmid, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the “State of the Nation's Housing 2025" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (June)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI Median (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)

·       USA Current Account Q1/ Redbook (June/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ House Price Index (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index/ Money Supply (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/20)

·       Chile PPI (May)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In China, the 14th National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee (NPCSC) - China’s senior legislative body -  convenes for its 16th session, running until Friday.  The committee will review draft revisions to the Public Security Administrative Penalty Law, the Law against Unfair Competition, the Maritime Law, the Fisheries Law, and the Civil Aviation Law, as well as draft laws on responding to public health emergencies, and promoting publicity and education on the rule of law.

·       The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) AIIB begins a three-day annual meeting in Beijing to elect a successor to founding President Jin Liqun. He is due to step down next January after serving two five-year terms from the bank's inception. The favorite to replace him is China's nominee, Zou Jiayi, who is one of the more than 200 elite members of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee.

·       The annual summer meeting of the World Economic Forum returns to Tianjin, near Beijing. Among the speakers at the three-day forum are Richard Liu, founder and chairman of Chinese online retailer JD.com; Dai Houliang, chairman of China National Petroleum; and Faisal Alibrahim, the minister of economy and planning of Saudi Arabia. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who is on a first visit to China as prime minister from June 22 to 26, will also speak at the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Index (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 NATO Summit begins in the Hague, Netherlands.  The primary focus of the Summit was expected to be the War in Ukraine.  However with the US bombing of Iran this past weekend, the Iranian issue will likely dominate talks.  Additionally, a number of non-NATO member leaders will be attendance including Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.  Both Ishiba and Lee are hoping to use the opportunity to move forward with a trade deal with US President Trump.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The primary topic will be preparations for the upcoming June European Council meetings on June 26-27.

·       The German 2025 budget will be published by the cabinet.  The government has been operating on a pro-rata provision budget due to the early elections.

·       The French far-left La France Insoumise Party is expected to file a no-confidence motion against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives remarks on Britain’s return to the gold standard in 1925.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives remarks at the NIESR Conference in London.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives remarks that the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and takes Q&A at the XLII APIE seminar organized by Association of Spanish Financial journalists and Universidad Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks on the occasion of the conferral of the De Sanctis Award "Europa" to her in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025 in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a dinner speech followed by Q&A at SSM-Senior Forum organized by A&O Shearman in Königstein, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (June)/ Ifo Current Conditions (June)/ Ifo Expectations (June)

·       Poland Retail Sales (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain BoE Greene Speech/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Children and Armed Conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        The Organization of American States hosts its annual assembly in Antigua and Barbuda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

·       The  Federal Reserve holds a meeting "to discuss proposed revisions to the Board's supplementary leverage ratio standards."

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/20)/New Home Sales (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/20)/ Building Permits Final (May)          

·       Brazil Current Account (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (May)

·       Argentina Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers Meeting will take place in Qingdao, China.  The attendees will be from member countries China, Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.

·       The ASEAN IA Summit takes place in Kuala Lumpur.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s invasion of South Korea.

·       Nikkei and the Financial Times are co-hosting Energy Transition Summit Asia 2025 in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Fukushima, Japan.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index Final (April)/ Leading Economic Index Final (April)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (June/13)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Trade union workers at the Port of Antwerp are expected to either strike or run a work-slow down as they seek increased pay and better work conditions.   The Antwerp Port is already significantly backlogged.

·       Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating when the country declared its independence from the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991.

·       Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking when the country when a plebiscite was held and 95% of voters voted for independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a keynote speech at the UK Finance Digital Innovation Summit in London.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (May)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       France Consumer Confidence (June)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (May)/ Jobseekers Total (May)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Russia Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mozambique Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Global

·       The Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

·       Today is the 80th Anniversary of the first 50 countries signing the Charter of the United Nations, effectively found the United Nations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds its 2025 Policy Summit, beginning at 9 a.m., with the theme "Building Strong and Sustainable Communities.”  Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will speak on June 26th.  Governor Lisa Cook will speak on June 27 at 9:15 a.m.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy before the New York Association for Business Economics.

·       Brazil BCB Monetary Policy Report/ IPCA mid-month CPI (June)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/21)/ PCE Prices Q1/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/25)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (April)/ Wholesale Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (June)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

·       Malaysia PPI (May)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (May)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets in Brussels through June 27.  EU leaders will gather to discuss a host of issues ranging from Ukraine to the situation in Iran, EU competitiveness, and the situation in Gaza.

·       Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank holds a General Council Meeting (virtual).

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the British Chamber of Commerce Global Annual Conference in London.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives the opening speech at the 150th anniversary of Münchner Opernfestspiele in Munich, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a virtual the Deutsche Bank Forum 2025 being held in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel speaks and participates on a panel discussion at the 'Wirtschaftsrat der CDU' Finanzmarktklausur in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUL

·       Hungary Current Account Q1

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech/ CBI Distributive Trades (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Iran Local Elections

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madagascar Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q2/ PPI (May)

Friday, June 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan followed by consultations, and in the afternoon is scheduled to have a briefing United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations.

·       The 24th Bank for International Settlements Annual Conference will be held in Basel, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams moderates a session featuring keynote remarks from Professor Carmen Reinhart at the 24th Bank of International Settlements Annual Conference.

·       The Federal Reserve releases the results of its annual bank stress tests.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June)/ Bank Lending (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

·       USA Personal Income (May)/ PCE Price Index (May)/ Core PCE Price Index (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Canada GDP (April)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Paraguay Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Uruguay Current Account Q1

·       Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou leads a delegation of students on a tour of China.

·       Today is National Unity Day in Tajikistan, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Tokyo CPI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (May)/ Current Account Final Q1

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (May)

·       Singapore Export Prices (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ PPI (May)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

·       Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 18th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations begins its two-day annual council meeting in Warsaw, where policymakers and thought leaders will gather to discuss pressing global challenges

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (May)/ Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (May)

·       France Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (May)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/             Business Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)

·       Italy Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Industrial Sales (April)/       PPI (May)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

·       Euro Area           Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence Final (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Foreign Ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are scheduled to sign a peace agreement in the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The deal will result in Rwandan forces to withdraw from eastern Congo and the creation of a regional economic integration framework.

·       Today is Djibouti Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Ukraine.

·       Today is Armed Forces Day in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs a panel discussion at Petersberger Sommerdialog 2025 in Königswinter (Bonn), Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Israeli-Iran War Expands,  Canada hosts the G7+, the UN Holds a High-level Two-State Solution Conference, and the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan Meet on Interest Rates

Israel and Iran are now going into their fourth day of ballistic missile strikes on each other after Israeli fighter bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities, targeting senior Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists.  At the time of this writing, it appears the targeting has expanded away from military targets to civilian targets, including energy and infrastructure. 

As to how long the fighting will continue, there is no clear answer but from all the conversations we have had with US government officials and Middle Eastern experts, it will likely last weeks if not months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear Israel will not let up until Iran’s growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium and all the enrichment facilities, centrifuge production lines, and other affiliated support facilities are destroyed.

But fully succeeding in destroying those facilities will not be easy, as Iran has spent years not only fortifying them but also making them particularly hard to hit.  The best example of this is the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is built deep into a mountain in Qom, Iran, estimated as deep as half a mile down.  It is estimated there could be as many as 3,000 centrifuges inside Fordow.  But destroying the facility is particularly hard since the facilities are buried so deeply into the mountain, and Israel is not seen as having the military capability to destroy it (only the US has the capacity).  

Overall, there are an estimated twelve other nuclear facilities being targeted by Israel, and, according to initial reports, many of them have been struck and destroyed by Israeli forces.

The big question for markets will be how far the fighting spreads, specifically, to the oil and gas sector.  Israel has hit the main gas depot and central oil refinery in Tehran and reportedly has hit a major natural gas facility in Bushehr, Iran.  And fear is growing that Israel could focus on other Iranian oil and gas facilities.

The Israeli-Iranian fighting is going to dominate the G7+ meetings that begin Monday in Canada. But the current trade tensions brought by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” will also be a major focus of the meetings.  All of the G7 leaders (the US, Japan, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy) plus the invited guest leaders of India, Ukraine, Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea will be gathered in Alberta for two days of meetings.   There are reports that President Trump is hoping to announce trade deals with Canada, Mexico, and Japan, but we cannot confirm this and are doubtful they will be announced during the summit.

Elsewhere, the United Nations is holding a high-level conference this week to discuss the feasibility of a two-state solution with Israel and Palestinians.  The event is being co-hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem.  The US is boycotting the event and urging other countries not to participate.  

In Washington, we are watching to see what President Trump does with TikTok this week as the latest deadline for the company to suspend operations Thursday. We are expecting Trump to again give an extension for the parent company, ByteDance, in the hope that a compromise can be reached. 

Kazakhstan will be the scene of an important meeting of Central Asian leaders and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit.  The leaders of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan – all mineral-rich and eager to expand trade ties with China – will discuss ways to better coordinate on policy and trade.

Looking at the global markets radar screen, it will be a big week for central banks as the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan each meet to discuss interest rates.   With all that is happening in the Middle East with spiking oil prices along with ongoing global trade tensions, we do not envy any of these central banks in deciding which way to go on rates. 

Looking at major economic reports being released this week, in the US, it is a shortened week with the Juneteenth holiday on Thursday (markets are closed).  But on Tuesday, we will see two May economic activity reports, retail sales and industrial production reports, released.  And on Wednesday, housing market data is due for release.

In Asia, Japan’s May trade balance is out on Wednesday, and its May CPI print is out on Friday.  And China releases industrial production and retail sales figures.  And in Europe, there are a large number of speeches by European Central Bank Board members, plus the Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg on Thursday.  The major reports markets include Germany’s ZEW June Survey, along with the business confidence figures.  France releases its May retail sales on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Alberta, Canada and goes through June 17.  In advance of the meeting, the 50th G7 meeting, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is chairing the Summit, announced the priorities for the meeting will include: “1) Protecting our communities and the world—strengthening peace and security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, and improving joint responses to wildfires. 2) Building energy security and accelerating the digital transition—fortifying critical mineral supply chains and using artificial intelligence and quantum to unleash economic growth, and 3) Securing the partnerships of the future—catalyzing enormous private investment to build stronger infrastructure, create higher-paying jobs, and open dynamic markets where businesses can compete and succeed.

·       The US hosts the FIFA World Cup 2025 through July 13.  32 teams will take part in the newly expanded format.

·       It is Father’s Day, celebrated globally. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen pay a joint visit to Greenland.  The point of the meeting is to support the independence of Greenland in the face of President Trump’s efforts to acquire it, which Macron has termed as “preying on” the Danish territory.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agricultural Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw.

·       Cities in Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Croatia, and Greece will participate in the Southern European Meeting Against Touristization (SET) 2025. The point of the conference is to find ways to curb mass tourism.

·       Zug, Switzerland holds Executive Council by-elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Morocco and France, in addition to eight other countries from the 5+5 Defense Initiative, will conduct the Sea Border 25 joint naval exercise through June 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 16, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will is scheduled to hold consultations on Protection of civilians in armed conflict. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on Sudan.  

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil report.

·       The UN Climate Change June Climate Meetings in Bonn, Germany begin and run through June 26.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A U.S. Federal Judge is scheduled to hear the legal arguments over the White House’s efforts to block Harvard’s ability to have international students.

·       The US House of Representatives is out of session this coming week, but the US Senate is in session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity APR/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts MAY

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index/ NOPA Crush Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive in Kazakhstan for meetings in advance of the China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit (which begins the following day).  Xi is looking to deepen ties with the mineral-rich country and expand trade overall.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will travel to New Delhi, India for meetings with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Cyprus through June 16.

·       US, Japanese, and Philippine Coast Guard units will be holding drills off the coast of the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets to discuss monetary policy.

·        New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI MAY

·       China House Price Index YoY MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ New Yuan Loans MAY/ M2 Money Supply YoY MAY/ Outstanding Loan Growth YoY MAY/ Total Social Financing MAY

·       India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index YoY MAY

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production YoY MAY

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI MAY/ Services PMI MAY

·       Singapore Balance of Trade MAY

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy (Energy) meeting Luxembourg. Ministers will be invited to express their opinions on the REPowerEU roadmap, which the Commission made public on 6 May. The roadmap follows up on the March 2022 European Council meeting, when leaders agreed to phase out Europe's dependency on Russian energy imports as soon as possible.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The 55th Paris Air Show begins in Le Bourget Airfield and runs through June 22.

·       The International Conference on the Science of Science and Innovation begins in Copenhagen, Denmark. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the opening at the Osservatorio Banca Impresa 2030 Meeting in Milan, Italy.

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices YoY MAY/ SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Turkey Current Account APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Budget Balance MAY

·       Italy Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY

·       Euro Area Labour Cost Index YoY Final Q1/ Wage Growth YoY Q1

·       Serbia Building Permits APR

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Belarus Industrial Production YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply YoY MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY

·       Nigeria Food Inflation YoY MAY/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Global

·       A UN Conference – co-chaired by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salme and France’s President Emmanual Macron – on a possible two-state solution with Israel will begin and run through June 20.  Entitled “Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution” will involve an estimated 150 countries.  However, Israel and the U.S. have elected not to participate. The US has condemned the conference and urged other countries not to participate. President Emmanuel Macron has suggested France could recognize a Palestinian state in Israeli-occupied territories at the conference.  Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may attend but has not confirmed his attendance yet.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) June 2025 Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Regional Conference on South – South Cooperation in Latin America and the Caribbean is held in Santiago, Chile.  The Conference brings together representatives of the region’s countries, the United Nations system, and regional and international organizations. 

·       Mexico’s Federal Economic Competition Commission (Cofece) – the country’s antitrust body – will deliver a ruling on Google’s alleged monopoly in the digital advertising market.

·       Argentina celebrates The Commemoration of General Don Martín Miguel de Güemes, a public holiday.  The day commemorates the general who helped win Argentina’s independence from Spain in 1820.

·       Virginia holds gubernatorial primaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee meets today and tomorrow to discuss interest rates.

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases APR

·       USA Import & Export Prices YoY MAY/ Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Redbook YoY JUN/14/ Capacity Utilization MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY MAY/ Business Inventories MoM APR/ NAHB Housing Market Index JUN/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/13/ International Monetary Market (IMM)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit will take place in Astana, Kazakhstan.  The Summit brings together the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

·       New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit China through June 20.

·       Russia and North Korea will resume passenger train connections after a 4-year hiatus.

·       The Circular Economy Forum 2025 begins in Manila. The event, sponsored by the Asian Development Bank, runs through Thursday and the primary focus of this year’s conference is how to reduce plastic pollution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import & Exports Prices YoY MAY

·       New Zealand Import Prices YoY MAY/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index JUN

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports YoY MAY

·       Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate MAY

·       Philippines Cash Remittances APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg.  EU Environmental Ministers are expected to reach an agreement on the Council's position regarding a new regulation that will replace the current directives on end-of-life vehicles (ELV), as well as those on reusability, recyclability, and recoverability.  Ministers will also exchange views on the preparations for the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30), which will take place in the Brazilian city of Belém in November 2025.

·       The SeaEnergy Forum which is focused on offshore renewable energy begins in Paris and runs through June 18.

·       Today is Iceland Independence Day, celebrating the country’s freedom from Denmark.

·       In England, the Royal Ascot horse races begin.  The races were first run in 1711 when Queen Anne arranged them.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Gross Wage YoY APR

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN/ ZEW Current Conditions JUN

·       Ireland Balance of Trade APR

·       Belarus GDP YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will host Malaysian Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz for trade talks.  Malaysia was hit with a 24 percent “reciprocal” tariffs when President Trump announced the “Liberation Day” tariffs.

·       The US Senate Judiciary Committee holds hearing on Joe Biden’s ‘cognitive decline’ and possible cover-up.  The Senate is now following the House of Representatives in running a probe into the then-President’s mental state and if a group of aides covered it up.

·       Today is Juneteenth National Independence Day, a public holiday in the US.

·       Argentinian unions will go on strike in advance of former President Cristina Fernandez’s court appearance which will begin her six-year prison sentence for corruption.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee votes on interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference at 2:00 p.m.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUN/13/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index JUN/13/ MBA Purchase Index JUN/13/ Building Permits Prel MAY/ Housing Starts MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/13/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate JUN/19/ Net Long-term TIC Flows APR/ Foreign Bond Investment APR/ Overall Net Capital Flows APR

·       Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the St. John’s Board of Trade.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand YoY Q1/ Private Spending YoY Q1

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity YoY APR

·       Argentina Retail Sales YoY APR/ Leading Indicator MoM MAY

·       Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida will host German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier for bilateral talks.  Steinmeier, who will be in Japan through June 20, will also meet with Japanese Emperor Naruhito and then travel to Osaka to attend Expo 2025.

·       China will hold its annual 618 Shopping Festival. It is a major e-commerce shopping campaign here retailers offer significant discounts and promotions and dovetails with the government’s drive to increase consumer spending.

·       The inaugural Nikkei Forum Medini, co-organized by Nikkei Inc. and Iskandar Investment, will take place over two days in Medini, Malaysia's southern state of Johor, bringing together global leaders and experts to discuss regional integration, clean energy, finance, technology and innovation. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will deliver the keynote address on Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Current Account Q1

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade MAY/ Machinery Orders YoY APR

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index MoM MAY

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will host Indonesian President Subianto Prabowo for meetings through June 20.  Prabowo, who is skipping attending the G7 Meetings in Canada despite being personally invited by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, will also attend the 28th International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg which begins today.   Putin is expected to give the opening remarks.  137 countries are sending participants to the Summit.

·       Guernsey (England) holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at the SRB Legal Conference 2025 "Banking Crises – law, policy and practice: European and global perspectives" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will give a speech at the Credit Management Summit 2025 in Milan, Italy.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey will give a speech at Risk.net Live Europe  Conference in London entitled “Innovation and Growth: The PRA’s Approach to Competitiveness.”

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel at the SRB Legal Conference 2025 "Banking Crises – law, policy and practice: European and global perspectives" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair the keynote session at 9th Annual Macroprudential Conference organized by Deutsche Bundesbank, De Nederlandsche Bank, Central Bank of Ireland and Sveriges Riksbank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give dinner remarks at the Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori in Milan, Italy.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Retail Price Index YoY MAY

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY MAY

·       Euro Area Current Account APR/ CPI Final MAY/ Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Italy Current Account APR

·       Serbia Current Account APR

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Commonwealth Trade Ministers will meet through June 20 in Windhoek, Namibia.  Simultaneously, the inaugural Commonwealth Business Summit will be held.

·       Today is Seychelles Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Retail Sales YoY APR

Thursday, June 19, 2025

Global

·       Guyana’s President Ali will chair the UN Security Council meeting to discuss policies to alleviate poverty to further global peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Juneteenth.  Financial markets in the US are closed.

·       Today is the deadline for ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, to divest the US assets.  However, President Trump is expected to authorize and provide an extension.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (JUN).

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence, Balance of Trade, Unemployment

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index JUN/ Foreign Bond Investment JUN/14/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUN/14

·       Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Employment Change MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY

·       South Korea PPI

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers are expected to discuss the International Monetary Fund Article IV review of euro area policies , Budgetary developments in euro area members, Euro area enlargement, specifically Bulgaria, and the Eurogroup President election process.

·       The London-based think tank, Chatham House, holds its 10th  London Conference.  A large number of government and corporate leaders will be in attendance and/or speaking.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a  speech at the 9th Annual Research Conference "Economic and financial integration in a stormy and fragmenting World" organized by National Bank of Ukraine and National Bank of Poland in Kyiv, Ukraine.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Room for Discussion event organized by the University of Amsterdam in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give a speech on "The challenges of this century, Eurozone economic outlook" at Young Factor conference organized by Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori in Milan, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will moderate a policy panel at 9th Annual Macroprudential Conference organized by Deutsche Bundesbank, De Nederlandsche Bank, Central Bank of Ireland and Sveriges Riksbank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde give a video remark at Financi'Elles event dedicated to 60 years of the law on the financial emancipation of women.

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and meeting minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, June 20, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Index/Business Conditions/CAPEX Index/Employment/New Orders

·       Canada New Housing Price Index, Retail Sales, PPI, Raw Materials Prices

·       Colombia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD), Central Government Debt, Loan Prime Rate 1Y/5Y

·       Japan Inflation, Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Minutes

·       India Central Bank Monetary Policy Summary of Rate Decisions, Bank Loan Growth

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg.  Ministers will seek agreement on the quality framework for traineeships, the Equal Treatment Directive, and gender equality in the AI-driven digital age.

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-host a joint summit of Italy's Mattei Plan — Rome's strategic development initiative for Africa — and the European Union's Global Gateway strategy, the bloc's flagship infrastructure investment framework.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at Banco de España's Legal Conference "Central banks and supervisors, emerging challenges and the law" in Madrid, Spain.

·       ECB Economic Bulletin, Eurozone Consumer Confidence

·       Italy Construction Output

·       Germany PPI

·       UK Retail Sales, Public Sector Net Borrowing ex-Banks

·       France Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence

·       Russian Central Bank Summary of Key Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Erdogan will host Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan in Ankara.  The two leaders are expected to discuss efforts to reach a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The West African Economic Summit 2025 begins in Abuja, Nigeria and runs through June 21.

·       Today is Martyr’s Day in Eritrea, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, June 21, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) of Foreign Ministers will meet in Istanbul, Turkey through June 22. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Martyrs’ Day in Togo, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is scheduled to visit Israel.  He will address the Israeli Knesset (NOTE: Johnson’s trip may be canceled because of the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Iran.)

·       Today is the tentative date Telsa will launch their new Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections take place.  There are 127 seats representing the 14 million residents of Tokyo open for election.

·       Today is the 60th anniversary of Japan and South Korea establishing diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Business Summit begins in Luanda, Angola.  More than 1,500 attendees including a number of African government leaders, are expected to attend the three-day event.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The G7 Leaders’ Summit Convenes, US and Chinese Trade Negotiations Begin Yet Again, Trump’s Birthday Parade, Pope Leo’s First Address to the US, and China’s Inflation Figures

June 8 - 15, 2025

The big geopolitical event of the week is the G7 Leaders’ Summit being held in Alberta, Canada.  This will be President Trump’s first trip to Canada since being re-elected and since he placed tough tariffs on the country.   

The overall G7 agenda, as outlined by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, is to focus on several broad themes – “protecting our communities and the world, building energy security and accelerating digital transition, and securing the partnerships of the future.”  But the real focus will be trade and how to get to an end-game with the Trump tariff changes as well as discussing the opportunities and threats of AI. 

But a lot of other major action will be taking place at the Summit including a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump – the first meeting between the two leaders since their disastrous meeting at the White House on February 28th. 

On Monday, US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for talks with Chinese trade negotiators to try to and get trade talks back on track.   The meetings are the result of a telephone conversation between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week.  There had been a 90-day pause on Trump’s China tariffs but that quickly fell apart after the US added new guidance on preventing Chinese semiconductor chips to be sold in the US. 

Elsewhere this week, two big no-confidence votes are being held on Wednesday.  The first in Poland on the heels of last week’s presidential elections.  The Polish Parliament is likely to hold a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Donald Tusks government and there is a fairly good chance it will go through, forcing new parliamentary elections.  

Meanwhile, Israel’s opposition parties will try to force a no-confidence vote in a bid to force new elections and push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office.  Current polling suggest Netanyahu would lose if elections were held today as many voters appear unhappy with the ongoing Gaza war.  Additionally, two of Netanyahu’s coalition parties – both representing ultra-Orthodox voters – are threatening to withdraw their support unless there is a last-minute agreement giving an exemption to ultra-Orthodox men from military service.

Back in Washington, the US Senate will continue to work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill – as a number of House Republican members who voted for the measure are now publicly expressing regret as the bill is now expected to add as much as $4 trillion to the federal deficit.   But the big news was Elon Musk’s extraordinary public spat with President Trump which began when Musk tweeted out his disgust with the size and shape of OBBA and then went on to criticize Trump – and even call for his impeachment – for supporting the bill in its current format.   We expect the US Senate to move to change a number of market-sensitive provisions – including Section 899 which would allow Treasury to place retaliatory taxes on foreign companies as well as the state and local (SALT) provisions which the House raised to $40,000 but is facing a host of criticism from Republicans.  We continue to hold the view reaching a final deal on OBBA is going to take much longer than the Trump Administration is hoping for – July 4th is the stated goal – and is likely to be scaled back in order to get enough Republican support. 

And finally, this week will see two big events in the US this Saturday: President Trump’s birthday parade on Friday in Washington that will simultaneously celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US Army.   The parade will take place along Constitution Avenue in Washington.   The second big event will be in Chicago where newly elected Pope Leo XIV will address via video to a sold-out (40,000+) Rate Stadium  (where the Holy Father’s beloved White Sox play).  This will be the Holy Father’s first official address to the United States. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the big events of the coming week are – aside from the G7 Meeting – China’s trade data and inflation figures and the US’s May CPI print.

The US CPI is out on Wednesday and PPI is out on Friday – both of which will be an important indicator for how the Federal Reserve may move during the FMOC meeting the following week and the overall impact of the Trump tariffs since Liberation Day.  Also out in the US this week is the Univeristy of Michigan June consumer sentiment survey on Friday.  There are no Fed speeches this week as the Fed has gone into their “Blackout Period” in advance of the FMOC meeting.

In Europe, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be delivering the Spending Review to Parliament on Wednesday, revealing the spending priorities of  Prime Minister Starmer’s government.  It will include plans for spending more than £600 billion on public services – 1/5 of the total British economy.  In the EU this week, there are a large number of European Central Bank speeches including ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking in Beijing. 

Bringing it back to Asia, Japan releases the May Economy Watchers Survey on Monday and the PPI on Wednesday.   But markets are mostly focused on China’s inflation and trade figure releases on Monday to get a sense how deeply the Trump tariffs have impacted the economy. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Global

·       Today is Pentecost, a major feast in the Christian church marking the 50th day of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy is set to hold a Constitutional referendum and run-off elections for regional elective office through Monday.  The Constitutional referendum concerns changes to the law on the acquisition of Italian citizenship for foreign residents and repeals some provisions on employment as passed by the 2025 Jobs Act law.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the 2025 UN Ocean Conference Leaders dinner in Paris, France.  She will speak at the conference tomorrow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a panel discussion at the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference of Hrvatska Narodna Banka in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 9, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Ocean Conference begins in Nice, France and runs through June 13.  This is the first UN Ocean Conference since the 2022 conference in Lisbon (Portugal). It will also be the first conference since the historic Agreement on Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, also known as the High Seas Treaty.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through June 13.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for renewed trade talks with China. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead the Chinese delegation.

·       The Trump Administration’s response to a Federal Appeals Court regarding tariff authority is due to be filed.

·       President Trump’s travel ban on 12 countries goes into effect.  The countries include Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

·       Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will testify before the Federal Supreme Court in a case in which he is accused of plotting a coup in 2022. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve goes into its “Blackout” period in advance of the Open Market Committee meetings June 17-18. There are no speeches by any Fed Governors until after the meetings.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia celebrates the King’s Birthday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q1

·       Japan Current Account (April)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ Bank Lending (May)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (May)

·       China Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will receive NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in London.  Rutte He will also give a speech at Chatham House and visit Sheffield Forgemasters with the Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei visits Spain for bilateral talks.  Milei then travels on to Israel for meetings.

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov travels to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  They are expected to discuss preparations for the upcoming Eurasian Economic Forum on June 26027 in Minsk.

·       London Tech Week begin and runs through June 13. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       It is Whit Monday in Europe.  Financial markets in Germany, Norway, and Switzerland are closed.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech on the rule of law at the Italian Court in Rome, Italy.

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) followed by consultations. 

·       Today is the 90th anniversary of the founding of Alcoholics Anonymous.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds confirmation hearings for Jacob Helberg for undersecretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment; Andrew Puzder for U.S. ambassador to the European Union; Paul Kapur for assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs; and Benjamin Black for CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.

·       New Jersey holds its gubernatorial primary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (May)/ Redbook (June/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (May)

·       El Salvador PPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha through June 12.

·       Pakistan’s finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, will deliver a budget to parliament against the backdrop of the country’s IMF loan program.

·       The Bloomberg Invest Conference begins in Hong Kong and goes through June 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index/ NAB Business Confidence (May)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (May)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India in Brussels.

·       The Europlace Conference is being held in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at the Jacques Delors event "Matching savings and investments: The role of banks and capital markets in financing Europe’s future", in Berlin.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a presentation at the 2025 IIF European Chief Risk Officer Forum (virtual).

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s report on financial stability.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives a speech at the ECB Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (May)/ Claimant Count Change (May)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (April)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts 

·       Italy Industrial Production (April)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (April)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (May)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (May)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (April)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Argentine President Javier Milei in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (May)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican airline Aero México will likely see flight attendants go on strike for higher wages.

·       Bloomberg hosts its Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/06)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (May)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (April)

·       Canada Building Permits (April)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Congress holds hearing to present Articles of Impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte.  The lower house in February impeached Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, on accusations that included budget anomalies, amassing unusual wealth and an alleged threat to the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the first lady, and the House Speaker.

·       Malaysia will host the ASEAN Plus Three and East Asia Summits.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Japan PPI (May)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       India M3 Money Supply (May/30)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Polish lawmakers hold vote of confidence called by Prime Minister Donald Tusk after the defeat of a political ally in the June 1 presidential ballot with the election of Karol Nawrocki.

·       UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the Spending Review to Parliament.

·       The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin and runs through June 12.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations chair Carl Bildt, Congressional Leadership Fund former president Dan Conston and Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen are among the speakers at the two-day Brussels Forum 2025, which will focus on transatlantic political and economic issues

·       VivaTEch!, Europe’s largest startup and tech event, begins in Paris and runs through June 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a presentation at the People's Bank of China in Beijing, China.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote speech followed by fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2025 in Berlin, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote presentation at the 2025 Government Borrowers Forum in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollo gives a video message at the European Payments Council's General Assembly in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta gives a speech at the Bank of Finland and SUERF Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at the Global Investment Management Summit  in London.

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Construction Output (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Auto Production (May)/ Auto Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s opposition parties will seek to dissolve the Knesset in an effort to bring an early election.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition are threatening to leave over policies forcing conscription of ultra-Orthodox young men into the army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa's National Assembly is due to vote on the government's proposed fiscal framework, the first of three pieces of legislation to adopt the country's 2025 budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April)/ SACCI Business Confidence (May)

Thursday, June 12, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled in the morning to hold a briefing on Yemen, followed by consultations.  In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

·       World Bank President Ajay Banga will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appear in front of the House Armed Services Committee for a hearing on the Defense Department’s 2026 budget request.

·       Today is Chaco Armistice Day in Paraguay.  The public holiday commemorates the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (June/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/31)/ PPI (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/12)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/11)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (April)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (May)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan is expected to hold is annual Wanan Civil Defense Drills in the Kinmen Islands.

·       In Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Auto Expo begins and runs through Sunday. The event, organized by the mainland's China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, aims to help at drive the global expansion of the Chinese automotive industry, which is currently gripped by a brutal price war between electric vehicle manufacturers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (May)

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (June/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ RBA Jacobs Speech

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q1

·       India Inflation Rate (May)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss a general approach on a directive to harmonize certain aspects of insolvency law across the EU, protection of adults, and the fight against impunity (dealing with Russia war crimes).

·       The International Energy Administration holds a two-day conference on global energy efficiency in Brussels.

·       Today is Russia Day in Russia.  The national holiday originally celebrated the fall of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union.  But its meaning has now been shifted by President Putin to celebrating the country’s modernization.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a  keynote speech at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel visits and speaks at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.  Later in the day, Schnabel will moderate a panel entitled “Funding the future: Strategies for supporting innovation and growth” at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a keynote speech at the IMF-WB annual high-level Conference for Senior Supervisors in Washington, DC.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (May)/ GDP (April)/ Goods Trade Balance (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (May)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/06)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (April)/ Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q1/ Manufacturing Sales (April)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)/ Wholesale Sales (April)

·       USA Michigan Current Conditions Prel (June)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectation/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (May)

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tokyo, Japan, campaigning for Tokyo’s metropolitan assembly elections being held on June 22 begin.  The race is seen as a key political test for Prime Minister Ishida in advance of Japan’s upper house elections later this summer.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (May)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (April)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Industrial Production (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (April)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss IT infrastructure, the Schengen report, migration issues, and EU internal security.

·       The 2025 Paris Air Forum will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Romania Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Hungary Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (April)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (April)/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Elderson Speech

·       Greece Construction Output Q1

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (April)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Global

·       Today is Eid-e-Chadir, celebrated by Shia Muslims on the 18th day of the Islamic month of Dhul Hijjah, the final month of the lunar based Muslim calendar.  The religious holiday is named after the event in which Shia Muslims believe that the cousin of the Prophet Muhammad, Ali ibn Abi Talib, was appointed as a leader and religious authority after the Prophet.

·       Pope Leo XIV will speak virtually at a youth event being held at White Sox Stadium in Chicago.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating when in 1982 the Island was liberated from Argentinian occupation.

·       Today is President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday.  The day will be celebrated with a large military parade which will also celebrate the US Army’s 250 anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Alberta, Canada and goes through June 17.  In advance of the meeting, the 50th G7 meeting, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is chairing the Summit, announced the priorities for the meeting will include: “1) Protecting our communities and the world—strengthening peace and security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, and improving joint responses to wildfires. 2) Building energy security and accelerating the digital transition—fortifying critical mineral supply chains and using artificial intelligence and quantum to unleash economic growth, and 3) Securing the partnerships of the future—catalyzing enormous private investment to build stronger infrastructure, create higher-paying jobs, and open dynamic markets where businesses can compete and succeed.

·       It is Father’s Day, celebrated globally. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agricultural Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Major Elections Dominate the Week Ahead, the US Pushes Asian Allies to Ramp Up Defense Spending to 5% of GDP,  the US Senate Takes Up the Reconciliation Bill, and the ECB Decides Rates

Major elections dominate the geopolitical calendar this week.  First, Poland is holding important presidential run-off elections.  At the time of this writing, the race is too close to call, but it appears conservative historian Karol Nawrocki is slightly ahead, and official results are expected to be announced Monday.  If Nawrocki wins, it will be seen as a defeat for both the current ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the European Union, as Nawrocki is perceived as an EU skeptic. 

Also happening on Sunday, Mexico is voting for its judiciary for the first time.  More than 2,600 federal, state, and local court seats are being voted on, moving the country away from an appointment-based system. It also makes Mexico the only country in the world to elect all its judges.  The move to an elected judiciary was championed by former President Andrés Manuel López Obrad (AMLO) and his successor, President Claudia Sheinbaum. Proponents say it will rid corruption from the judiciary, while critics argue it will politicize the judiciary and allow drug cartels to further influence judges.

The third big election this week is in South Korea, where voters will select a new president following the recent impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, who tried to seize control by declaring martial law six months ago.  The South Korean political system has been chaotic ever since, but voters appear to be leaning toward electing left-wing Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung.   With the economy experiencing slower growth, the election will likely result in a seismic political and economic change in the months ahead.

We would note US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s speech at the Shangri-la Security Conference this past week.  Hegseth made headlines by saying a potential invasion of Taiwan by China is more likely than ever before.  He also called on US allies in Asia to increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP.   He also formally requested that Australia immediately raise its defense spending to 3.5% from the current rate, which is putting the country on track to hit 2.4% by 2030.

In Turkey on Tuesday, low-level meetings between Russian and Ukrainian diplomats are scheduled to take place.  No breakthroughs are expected despite President Donald Trump’s urging Russia to end the war immediately.  The meeting will take place in advance of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group – made up of NATO defense ministers – meeting in Brussels on Wednesday to discuss how to further support Ukraine. 

Also in Europe this week, the European Commission is scheduled to release a report recommending that Bulgaria adopt the Euro by 2026, further integrating the nation into the European Union.  

Moving to the US, Congress returns from their week-long Memorial Day recess, and the US Senate will begin debating President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which was passed by the House of Representatives ten days ago. 

The House bill is estimated to cost $2.5 trillion over the next ten years. But with new estimates suggesting the House version of the bill will actually add $3.8 trillion to the US deficit and Moody’s recent downgrade of US debt, senators are privately suggesting they intend to significantly cut the size of the package while wrestling over whether to include major tax provisions such as Section 899 which is seen as a revenge tax on foreign countries the US deems have “unfair” tax policies that discriminate against US businesses and investor.  Foreign investment firms operating in the US have already swung into action, lobbying furiously against the provision, saying if the provision is included in a final bill, it will drive them out of the US. 

Currently, by our count, there are at least five Republican senators prepared to vote against the current version of the overall package, enough to block the bill from moving forward.  We expect weeks, if not months, of negotiations between Senate Republicans, President Trump, and House Republicans as they attempt to finalize a comprehensive agreement.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the European Central Bank (ECB) meets this week to consider interest rates. Market consensus suggests the ECB will cut rates another 25 basis points, bringing rates down 2%.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone reports May CPI prints on Tuesday while Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and their trade balance.  France also reports industrial production and their trade balance this week, too. 

Turning to Asia, Japan will be releasing wage data and the Q1 Ministry of Finance Corporate Survey.  China releases May PMIs and the Caixin indices this week. 

And bringing it back to the US, jobs reports are out Friday after the JOLTS report comes out Tuesday and the ADP report comes out on Wednesday.  Also, this week, May ISMs (manufacturing and services) are out.  And markets are going to be listening to Fed Chair Jay Powell when he gives remarks Monday at the Fed’s 75th International Finance Conference, following Powell’s face-to-face meeting with President Trump this past week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 01, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meeting takes place to review market conditions and oil prices.

·       Today is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.  It is also the official first day of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico holds judicial elections. Voters for the first time will vote to elect all nine members of the Supreme Court, tow magistrates of the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, 15 magistrates of the Regional Chambers of Electoral Tribunal, five members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal, 464 circuit court magistrates, and 386 district court judges.   The vote comes after a highly controversial law was passed in 2024 by the Mexican parliament to move to judicial elections.  Critics argue the law politicizes the judicial system and opens the door to massive corruption and influence by the drug cartels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the 2025 Bank of Korea International Conference: Structural Shifts and Monetary Policy, Seoul, Republic of Korea.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the second round of presidential elections.

·       Croatia holds local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madaraka Day, celebrating the Republic of Kenya and when it gained self-rule in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 2, 2025

Global

·       At the UN, there will be a Plenary Meeting of the General Assembly for the Election of the President of the General Assembly for its Eightieth Session.  Former German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is the leading contender for the post.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney joins the elected heads of the countries’ provinces at the Meeting of First Ministers in Saskatoon.

·       The US Congress returns from a week off for Memorial Day. The US Senate will begin considering the Reconciliation bill (tax and 2025 budget) passed two weeks ago by the House of Representatives.

·       The US-China de minimus rate is set to increase to 54 percent.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        The Federal Reserve’s 75th Anniversary International Finance Conference will be held at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.   Fed Chair Jay Powell will give opening remarks at 1:00 p.m.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Peter McColough Series on International Economics: A Conversation With Lisa D. Cook in New York.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in moderated conversation before the Eleventh District Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Quad Cities Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China celebrates the Dragon Boat Festival. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May)/ Commodity Prices (May)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (May)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q1/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-US justice and Home Affairs Ministerial meeting begins in Warsaw, Poland and runs through Wednesday.

·       The UK Government will publish its strategic defense review.  Defense Minister John Healy has said the report will “send a message to Moscow” over Russia’s aggression not only against Ukraine but other western nations including cyber-attacks on the UK military networks.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit Vilnius, Lithuania and participate in the Vilnius Summit with B9 (Baltic 9) and Nordic countries.

·       The UK observes the June Bank Holiday -formerly known as White Monday.  Banks and markets are closed.

·       The 9th Annual Austrian World Summit begins in Vienna, Austria. The event is organized by the Schwarzenegger Climate Initiative, a body created by the Austrian-American actor Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at the Conférence - REF 157: "Femmes et finance" organized by Association Europe-Finances-Régulations in Paris, France.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann joins a fireside chat at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors 75th International Finance Anniversary Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (April)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)/ New Car Sales (May)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (May)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ Mortgage Lending and Approvals (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Net Lending to Individuals (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Global

·       At the UN, there will be a plenary meeting for the election of non-permanent members of the Security Council.  This includes two seats from Africa (DRC and Liberia), one from Asia (Bahrain), one from Latin America, and one from Eastern Europe (Latvia or Montenegro).

·       The 11th BRICS Parliamentary Forum will be held through Thursday at the Congresso Nacional in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Ministerial Council meets in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. and Japanese trade envoys may hold their fifth round of trade talks on the sidelines of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Ministerial Council in Paris, France, through June 4.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Corridor Business Journal Mid-Year Economic Review.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before a Fed Listens roundtable with El Paso community leaders.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/31)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (April)/ Factory Orders (April)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (June)/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Fed Logan Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/30)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea holds presidential elections.  The snap elections were called after six months of confusing and often chaotic rule following the impeachment of then-President Yoon Suk Yeol after he declared martial law.   Polls show left-wing candidate Lee Jae-myung has a comfortable lead to become the next president.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech at the Naigai Josei Chosa Kai meeting in Japan.

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will speak at the Society of Monetary Economics in Tokyo.

·       Sarah Hunter, assistant governor (economic) at the Reserve Bank of Australia gives a keynote speech at the Economic Society of Australia Queensland Business Lunch in Brisbane.

·       New Zealand Import Prices Q1/ Export Prices Q1/ Terms of Trade Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes/ Current Account Q1/ Company Gross Profits Q1/ Business Inventories Q1/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q1

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian and Ukrainian delegations are expected to meet in Istanbul, Turkey.

·        Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Rome, Italy. 

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergie Lavrov hosts the Government Commission on Compatriots Living Abroad (GCCLA) meeting in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden and rate-setters Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra will appear in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Romania PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)

·       France Budget Balance (April)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q1

·       Spain Unemployment Change (May)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ CPI Flash (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria is expected to re-open its stock market.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

·       Jordan PPI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Global

·       At the UN,  there will be a Plenary Meeting of the General Assembly for the Election of members of the Economic and Social Council.

·       The BRICS Counter Terrorism Working Group meets in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       The Hajj Pilgrimage begins in Saudi Arabia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd Round of the US – Cambodia trade talks take place in Washington, D.C.

·       The Bloomberg Tech Summit takes place in San Francisco, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book.

·       The Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates and subsequent press conference.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome and closing remarks before a Fed Listens event, “How Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Conditions Affect Individuals and Businesses"

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/30)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (May/30)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q1/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Colombia Exports (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 26th Anniversary of the deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (May)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Chain Price Index Q1/ GDP Consumption Q1/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish a report recommending Bulgaria be allowed to adopt the Euro.

·       The 9th Meeting of the EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council takes place in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the 2025 Harvard Law School/Program on International Financial Systems Europe-U.S. Symposium in Madrid, Spain.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (May)/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       A Turkish Commission of the ruling Justice and Development Party begins drafting a new constitution.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (May)/ Business Confidence Q2

Thursday, June 5, 2025

Global

·       The World Energy Investment 2025 report is published by the International Energy Agency.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon in New York.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics.

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeff Schmid speaks on banking policy at an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed.

·       Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki speaks at C.D. Howe Institute in Toronto.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/31)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/05)/Fed Balance Sheet (June/04)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (May)

·       Colombia PPI (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The India-Central Asia Business Forum begins in New Delhi, India.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at European Forum of Deposit Insurers (EFDI) International Conference “Embracing the Future on Solid Grounds: Reinforcing Financial Stability” in Madrid, Spain.

·       South Korea Current Account (April)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/31)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (May)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (April)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (May)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers (the Ukraine Defense Contact Group) will meet in Brussels to discuss the current situation in Ukraine.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Transport & Telecommunications) meets in Brussels through June 6.

§  The CBI National Business Dinner is held in London, traditionally addressed by a senior member of the government

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank meets to decide interest rates and press conference.

·       The ECONDAT 2025 spring meeting, hosted by the Bank of England, begins its two-day spring meeting at King’s College London. The conference brings together central bankers and researchers will gather to discuss the economics involved in non-traditional data and analytical tools.

·       OE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks on a webinar hosted by Odgers. The webinar is titled “H2 economic trends.”

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Germany Factory Orders (April)/ HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ PPI (April)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Marginal Lending Rate/

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (May)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

·       Ireland Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GNP Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Serbia PPI (May)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/30)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Burundi holds parliamentary and local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q1

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (May)

Friday, June 6, 2025

Global

·       Eid al-Adha, the second of the two main festivals in Islam, begins this evening. Celebrations and observances are generally carried forward to the three following days, known as the Tashreeq days.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) travels to France through June 7 for a State Visit.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (April)/ Car Production (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (May)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Government and Manufacturing and Nonfarm Payrolls (May)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)/ Used Car Prices (May)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (May)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Japanese startup space company, ispace, will make a second attempt at a soft landing on the moon, aiming to become the first Asian private company to achieve such a feat. Its first attempt, in April 2023, ended with the lander crashing into the lunar surface..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (April)/ Coincident Index Prel (April)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Consumer Confidence Q1/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Australia Building Permits (April)/ Private House Approvals (April)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (May/23)/ Deposit Growth (May/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/30)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Mario Centeno speaks about the outlook for the Portuguese economy in Lisbon.

· European Central Bank Board Member Robert Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s updated forecasts.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Machado Speech/ Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Saturday, June 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is scheduled to visit Moscow for a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He will also attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum as a keynote speaker.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to visit Monaco for meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at the Blue Economy & Finance Forum in Monaco.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference of Hravtska Narodna Banka in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Global

·       Today is Pentecost, a major feast in the Christian church marking the 50th day of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy is set to hold a Constitutional referendum and run-off elections for regional elective office through Monday.  The Constitutional referendum concerns changes to the law on the acquisition of Italian citizenship for foreign residents and repeals some provision on employment as passed by a 2025 Jobs Act law.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.