The Global Week Ahead

Geopolitics and Central Bank Action Converge, King Charles Visits Washington in an Effort to Bolster “The Special Relationship”, Japan’s Prime Minister Visits Vietnam and Australia, and a Big Corporate Earnings Week

April 26 - May 3, 2026

It is a big week for markets and geopolitics as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada each meet on monetary policy while the Iran War remains stalemated. 

Efforts to move forward on negotiations between the United States and Iran failed this past weekend.  President Trump pulled back his two lead negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, from going to Islamabad, Pakistan, mostly because it was not clear Iranian negotiators would show up.

The situation is likely to remain fluid this week as Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and other countries try to quietly patch together next steps for talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, is traveling to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation.  But one thing is clear: The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially bottled up as the U.S. Navy continues its blockade (enhanced now as a third aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS George Bush arrives in the region). 

Central banks are watching the Iran situation closely and its impact on the global economy, trying to decide interest rate policy. The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada announce their decisions on Wednesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday.  Market consensus points to all five central banks holding on any moves on rates.

We would note that it now appears Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell, will move forward after the U.S. Justice Department drops its criminal investigation of Powell.  Dropping the case allows a number of U.S. Senators who had vowed to block Warsh’s confirmation until the investigation was dropped to allow the vote to move forward.  The Senate Banking Committee is now scheduled to hold a confirmation vote on Warsh on Wednesday, which means the full Senate could vote by the end of the week.

Also this week, King Charles will be in Washington for the first state visit by a British monarch to the United States in almost 20 years.  While the King and Queen Camilla will tour the US as part of their visit, it comes with a critical purpose for the UK: mending and reinforcing the “US-UK special relationship,” which has become increasingly brittle in recent months as President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have sparred on everything from trade to the Iran War.

Elsewhere in the world this week, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit Vietnam and then Australia.  Her visit to Vietnam is particularly important as she is expected to stress Japan’s determination to push a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” agenda, seeking Vietnam’s greater involvement in ensuring maritime security in the South China Sea – pushing back on China’s growing aggressive efforts to control the sea. 

Takaichi is then expected to travel to Australia to meet with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, where the two leaders will sign an economic security pact focusing on critical minerals, while also hammering out new agreements covering energy assurances and greater defense cooperation.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the central bank meetings discussed above are the major focus.  But there are a number of major economic reports being released this week that markets are watching closely.  In the US, Q1 GDP is released on Thursday, as is the March PCE (a favorite data point for the Federal Reserve when deciding on interest rates).  The US Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday, while the ISM Manufacturing Index is out on Friday.

In Asia, China’s PMIs are released on Thursday and Japan’s industrial production, retail sales, and consumer confidence are out on Thursday, and the April Tokyo CPI is out on Friday.

And in Europe this week, Germany and Spain report April CPI on Wednesday.  The Eurozone Q1 GDP is out on Thursday. 

Finally, we would note that this week is a very big week for corporate earnings.  It will be quite interesting to hear the collective forward guidance from many companies as economic uncertainty grows as a result of the Iran War.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 27, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.   

·       The UN’s International Conference on Effective Nuclear and Radiation Regulatory Systems: Strengthening Competence, Agility and Connection in the Modern Era will take place through April 30th in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla begin a state visit to the US, which includes a White House State Banquet and an Address before Congress.

·       The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Brazil Bank Lending MoM (February)/ Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Verizon, Nucor, Fairfax Financial (CAN), Universal Health Services, Crown Holdings, Domino’s Pizza, Crane,

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Food and Beverage Innovation Forum begins in Hangzhou, China.  The three-day event will cover the latest food trends and technologies, while investors will be scouting for deals, as global chains like Starbucks partner with private equity firms to compete in the world's No. 2 economy.

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog will pay an official visit to Astana, Kazakhstan, through April 28th.

·       Anzac Day is observed in New Zealand.  Financial markets are closed.

·       The militaries of the United States, the Philippines, Australia, Japan and other US partners will jointly conduct the Balikatan drills in the Philippines through May 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits YoY (March)/National People's Congress Standing Committee 

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Maylasia PPI YoY

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (February)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

·       Singapore Industrial Production MoM (March)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)

·       EARNINGS: Hitachi, Daiwa Securities, JERA

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss the strategic importance of agriculture and sustainable forest management in strengthening wildfire risk prevention and resilience, Post-2027 CAP proposals: key design choices for income support, and the overall market situation, in particular following the invasion of Ukraine and the Iran War.

·       The UK Parliament’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy takes evidence from former defense secretary and Nato secretary-general Lord George Robertson and foreign affairs adviser Fiona Hill, both of whom were involved in last year’s British strategic defense review.

·       The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute publishes annual military expenditure data.

·       Slovenia celebrates the Day of Uprising Against Occupation, commemorating when 1941 Slovenia was overrun by Nazi forces.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at joint Karlspreis and Helmut Kohl Foundation event "Blossoming Landscapes 2.0 – A New Agenda for Europe" organized by the International Charlemagne Prize of Aachen and Bundeskanzler Helmut Kohl Foundation in Aachen, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (April)

·       EARNINGS: Deutsche Bourse

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire is set to expire.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa celebrates Freedom Day, a national holiday and financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Sierra Leon Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Independence Day in Togo, a national holiday.

·       The 15th annual Connected Africa Summit, focusing on digital inclusion and innovation, gathers in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

·       The Joint Bank for International Settlements, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and IMF Spillover Conference begins in Washington and runs through April 29th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Genting Malaysia will launch New York City's first live table games at Resorts World New York City, transforming the slots-only venue into a full-scale casino. The rollout includes 240 table games with more than 1,500 blackjack, craps, baccarat and roulette positions, alongside over 2,500 slot machines, with thousands more to be added later this year.

·       Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presents the Spring Economic Statement to the Canadian parliament in Ottawa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI MoM (April)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook YoY (April)/25/S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (February)/ Home Price Index (February)/Home Price Index MoM (February)/CB Consumer Confidence (April)/Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/24)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Visa, Coca-Cola, T-Mobile, S&P Global, Starbucks, General Motors, UPS, Waste Management, Hilton, Robinhood, Vale (Brazil), Sysco, Fair Isaac, Kimberly Clark, Omnicom, Franklin Resources, Invesco, Seaboard, Caesars Entertainment, JetBlue, NCR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 25th Asean-EU ministerial meeting in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy.  A press conference will follow the meeting.

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/Jobs/applications ratio (March)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports YoY (March)/Balance of Trade (March)         

·       India Industrial Production YoY/Manufacturing Production YoY (March)

·       EARNINGS: China Merchants Bank, Sinopec, Mitsubishi Electric, Fujitsu, China Pacific Insurance, TDK, Bank of Beijing, Tokyo Gas, NEC, TDK

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through April 29 in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy speaks at the JP Morgan UK Banks Asset Management & Liability Management Conference in London.

·       Norges Bank Investment Management hosts its annual investment conference in Oslo, with speakers including World Bank President Ajay Banga and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

·       Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an informal dinner and exchange of views with the Governing Council with EU Commissioner for Financial Services and the Savings and Investments Union Maria Luís Albuquerque in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q1/Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Italy Industrial Sales MoM (February)/ PPI MoM (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)/Jobseekers Total (March)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (April)/Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovenia Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       EARNINGS: Airbus, BP, Taylor Wimpey, WPP, Barclays

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM (February)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations peacekeeping operations.

·       G7 Development Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. International Trade Commission will hold a preliminary conference on whether PTMEG imports from China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam are injuring U.S. producers, which could lead to duties on specialty chemicals.

·       Bloomberg hosts its annual Bloomberg House in Miami, Florida.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

·       The Bank of Canada meets to consider monetary policy.  There will be a press conference in the afternoon with BoC Governor Tiff Macklem.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM (April)/ PPI MoM (March)/Interest Rate Decision

·       USA  MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/24)/ Building Permits Prel (February)/ Building Permits Prel (March)/ Durable Goods Orders MoM (March)/ Housing Starts (February)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Building Permits MoM Prel (February)/ Building Permits MoM Prel (March)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM MAR/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (March)/ Housing Starts MoM (March)/ Housing Starts MoM (February)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv (March)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv (March)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (March)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (March)/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (April/17)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, AbbVie, Qualcomm, ADP, General Dynamics, Canadian National Railway, Allstate, Ford, Old Dominion Freight, Yum Brands, Vulcan Materials, Banco Santander Brazil, CGI (CAN), Stanley Black & Decker, MGM Resorts, Penske Automotive, American Financial, Capital Power (CAN), Choice Properties (CAN), Blackstone Mortgage, Aflac, Humana, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, SoFi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit Vietnam. She is expected to give a major foreign policy speech whereby she will renew Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy" diplomatic policy initiative.  The initiative is aimed to bring greater focus on economic security, including bolstering supply chains for critical goods and expanding energy security, according to the sources.

·       Japan begins Golden Week, a series of national public holidays.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Inflation Rate YoY (March)/Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY Q1/CPI (March)/RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (March)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Gov Breman Speech

·       Singapore Import/Export Prices YoY (March)/PPI YoY (March)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Thailand Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Housing Starts YoY (March)/ Construction Orders YoY (March)

·       India M3 Money Supply YoY (April/17)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       EARNINGS: CNOOC, Foxconn, Ping An Insurance, Peoples Insurance Company, China Northern Rare Earth, HKEX

Europe                                                                                                 

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through April 30 in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council begins two days of meetings on monetary policy.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision Gareth Trunan speaks at the 23rd Annual Conference on Bulk Annuities in London.

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (April)/Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (March)/ Economic Confidence Index (April)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies YoY (March)/ Loans to Households YoY (March)/ M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Economic Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Selling Price Expectations (April)/ Services Sentiment (April)/ECB Buch Speech

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM (April)/ Bavaria CPI MoM (April)/ Brandenburg CPI MoM (April)/ Hesse CPI MoM (April)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM (April)/Saxony CPI MoM (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)

·       Italy Business Confidence (April)/Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (March)/ Total Credit YoY (March)

·       Great Britain Car Production YoY (March)

·       France GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Household Consumption MoM (March)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Corporate Profits (February)/ Real Wage Growth YoY (February)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)

·       EARNINGS: Novartis, Banco Santander, Total Energies, AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Lloyds Bank, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Mercedes Benz AG, Edessa, Adidas, Michelin, Porsche AG,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Blockchain DeFi & Web3 Summit meets in Lagos, Nigeria.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Antigua and Barbuda hold elections for their House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Net Payrolls (March)

·       USA  Core PCE Price Index MoM (March)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1/ Personal Income MoM (March)/ Personal Spending MoM (March)/ Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ Q1/ Employment Cost Benefits/Employment Cost Wages QoQ Q1/ Employment Cost Index QoQ Q1/ GDP Price Index QoQ Adv Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/25)/ PCE Price Index MoM (March)/ PCE Price Index Continuing Jobless Claims (April/18) /Core PCE Price Index YoY (March)/ GDP Sales QoQ Adv Q1/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (April/25)/PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q1/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ Adv Q1/ Real Personal Spending MoM (March)/ Chicago PMI (April)/ CB Leading Index MoM (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/24)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate /30/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/29)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Fiscal Balance (March)

·       Canda GDP MoM (February)/ GDP MoM Prel (March)/ Average Weekly Earnings YoY (February)

·       Chile Copper Production YoY (March)/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Manufacturing Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Columbia Business Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production YoY (March)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: Apple, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, ConocoPhillips, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Altria, Southern, Royal Caribbean, Intercontinental Exchange, Cigna, L3Harris, Valero Energy, Carrier, Cardinal Health, AIG, Hershey, Xcel Energy, Martin Marietta Materials, Iron Mountain, LPL Financial, T. Rowe Price, Textron, Alliant Energy, Hyatt Hotels, Bombardier (CAN), Clorox, International Paper, Rivian Auto, AES, Molson Coors, Encompass Heath, Baxter International, LKQ, Eastman Chemical, Choice Hotels, NexGen Energy (CAN), CNO Financial, Federated Hermes, Air Canada, Weyerhaeuser, Fomento Economico Mexica

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro speaks at the Manila Overseas Press Club's DFA Night on April 30; she is expected to address ASEAN hosting, the Iran war, the West Philippine Sea dispute with China, and energy security. Worth tracking for Manila's posture going into the summit.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production MoM (March)/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Japan Industrial Production MoM Prel (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

·       Australia Import/Export Prices QoQ Q1/ Housing Credit MoM (March)/ Private Sector Credit MoM (March)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices MoM (April)

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS General PMI (April)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee/ KOF Leading Indicators (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Unemployment Rate Prel Q1/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Thailand New Car Sales YoY (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Consumption MoM (March)/ Private Investment MoM (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (February)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment YoY Q1

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply YoY (March)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate YoY (April)

·       EARNINGS: Samsung Electronics, ICBC, China Life Insurance, China Yangtze Power, Postal Savings Bank of China, Industrial Bank of China, Toyota Tsusho, China CITIC Bank, China Bank of Communications, Cosco Shipping, East Japan Railways, Kyocera, SAIC Motor, China Steel, China Securities, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, ANA, Japan Air, DBS, China State Shipbuilding

Europe       

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of meetings on monetary policy.  ECB President Christine Lagarde will then hold a press conference.

·       The Bank of England meets to consider monetary policy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a presentation at the Danish Economic Society in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential David Baile will participate in a fireside chat at International Swaps and Derivatives Association 40th annual general meeting in Boston, Massachusetts.

·       United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (April)/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1

·       France GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1/ Household Consumption MoM (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/PPI MoM (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel Q1

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1/ Current Account (February)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)

·       Turkey Balance of Trade Final (March)/Import/Export Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues Q1/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (March)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/24)

·       Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)

·       Germany Retail Sales MoM (March)/Import Prices MoM (March)/ Unemployed Persons (April)/ Unemployment Change (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)

·       Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate MoM (April)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1/ Inflation Rate YoY Flash (April)/ Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ CPI Flash (April)/ Deposit Facility Rate

·       Greece PPI YoY (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (February)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q1/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/Current Account (March)

·       EARNINGS: Schneider Electric, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Deutsche Post, Standard Chartered, Credit Agricole, BASF, Willis Towers Watson, Repsol, Volkswagen, MTU Aero Engines AG, Puma, Air France, ArcelorMittal, Rolls Royce

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI MoM (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Private Sector Credit YoY (March)

Friday, May 1, 2026

Global

·       China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of May. There will be a press briefing with Ambassador Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, who will serve as head of the Security Council for the month.

· May Day public holiday observed in multiple countries, including China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany, and France; financial markets closed in several regions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A bipartisan U.S. senatorial delegation, led by Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), will visit China ahead of the planned May 14-15 summit between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

·       King Charles and Queen Camilla begin a two-day visit, having completed their tour in the United States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Net Payrolls (March)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (April)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (April)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/01)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/01)

·       Peru Inflation Rate MoM (April)

·       EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, Canadian Pacific Railway, Colgate Palmolive, TransCanada, Imperial Oil (CAN), Dominion Resources, Estee Lauder, CBOE, Church & Dwight, Telus (CAN), Magna International (CAN), Moderna, AutoNation, Lear, Goodyear, Newell Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is scheduled to implement a zero-tariff coverage for exports from 53 African countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Beijing.

·       Today is Constitution Day in the Marshall Islands, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)/ Building Permits MoM (March)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ PPI QoQ Q1/ Commodity Prices YoY (April)

·       South Korea Exports/Imports/YoY/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Tokyo Core CPI YoY (April)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (April)/ Tokyo CPI YoY (April)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/25)

·       Sri Lanka PPI YoY (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate MoM (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth YoY (April/17)/ Deposit Growth YoY (April/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/24)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate MoM (April)/ Wholesale Prices YoY (April)

·       EARNINGS: Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Seiko Epson

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Much of Europe celebrates Labor Day.  Most banks, financial markets, and the European Central Bank are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will present at the virtual National Agency Briefing on Monetary Policy in London.

·       Russia GDP YoY (March)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (March)/ Mortgage Approvals (March)/ Mortgage Lending (March)/ M4 Money Supply MoM (March)/ Net Lending to Individuals MoM (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Turkey Imports/Exports Prel/Balance of Trade Prel (April)

·       EARNINGS: Linde, AON, Pearson, NatWest

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Private Bank Lending YoY (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Inflation Rate YoY (April)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate YoY (April)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       South Africa Budget Balance (March)

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Niue – the self-governing Polynesian island country that is a part of New Zealand – holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Global

·       OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Retail Sales YoY (April)/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers on May 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Rise as Ceasefire Set to Expire, EU Leaders Meet in Cyprus, and Fed Chair-Nominee Warsh Gets His Confirmation Hearing

April 19 - 26, 2026

Markets are gripped by rapidly shifting signals from Washington and Tehran over peace talks, with President Trump projecting a deal within days. However, President Trump ended the week telling reporters on Friday he expected a deal “in a day or two” and that his special envoys, Vice President J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were heading to Islamabad, Pakistan for a second round of talks. But this all abruptly was upended when the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.  This promptly led to Iranian threats to strike back and denials they were going to send a negotiating team to Pakistan.  This is an extraordinarily fast-moving situation as the cease-fire is scheduled to end two days from now.  The next steps all depend on whether Iran sends a delegation to Islamabad or not.

Meanwhile, EU leaders meet in Cyprus this week in what could be a pivotal session amid rising geopolitical crises, especially the Iran situation.  The “informal” agenda includes discussing the Iranian situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine (Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to address the group), as well as progress of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).  The MFF is a nearly €2 trillion budget proposal that aims to, according to the EU, “align resources with shared priorities (from competitiveness and innovation to defense, cohesion and external action) under a modernized, flexible and transparent structure.”

But the Iran crisis will dominate the discussions as energy prices spike in Europe.  EU leaders are likely to push emergency energy measures.  We would also note this will be the last EU meeting for outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who lost power last week after 16 years in power.

In Washington, the main event is the Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chair-nominee Kevin Warsh. Despite likely approval, the process could be stalled by the ongoing Justice Department investigation of current Chair Jay Powell and senators planned opposition until it concludes.  As we have written in client notes, this could delay Warsh’s confirmation for months, directly impacting upcoming FOMC meetings in June and July.

Beyond Warsh’s confirmation, global markets are starting to focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting April 28–29, the European Central Bank interest rate meeting on April 29, and the Bank of England interest rate meeting on April 30. 

This week’s global flash April PMIs are highly anticipated to gauge the economic impact of the Iran War. In the U.S., March existing home sales (Monday), April PPI and Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), March retail sales (Tuesday), and the key March PCE Index (Friday) are headline releases; Canada reports March CPI on Monday.

In Europe, markets will focus on Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Wednesday), UK labor data (Tuesday), and March inflation (Wednesday), plus major German and French economic surveys released throughout the week.

In Asia, big events include Japan’s March CPI (Friday), Taiwan’s export orders (Tuesday), and South Korea’s Consumer Sentiment (Thursday).

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       White House Special Envoys Stev Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran (TBD).  On Tuesday, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to join them in the talks (Again, TBD).

·       The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – was set to expire.  Congress passed a short-term extension last week as they continue to battle out how to get a final agreement hammered out.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will make his first visits as leader to India and Vietnam through Friday. Lee, who is expected to be joined by a business delegation, will meet with his counterparts for talks, which are likely to focus on energy and supply chain cooperation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 20, 2026

Global

·       The UN’s 2026 ECOSOC Forum on Financing for Development begins New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       An Indian delegation will be in Washington for trade talks with the U.S.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein interviews Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf at the Economic Club of Washington.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations.

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Alaska Airlines, Wintrust

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines and the U.S. are set to commence their annual weekslong war games. Japan will make its debut as an active participant in the exercises, after Tokyo and Manila's reciprocal access agreement came into effect last year.

·       Mongolian President Khurelsuh Ukhnaa will visit Kazakhstan through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)/ FDI (YTD) (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       India Infrastructure Output (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to update parliament on the vetting failure of former British ambassador to Washington Lord Peter Mandelson and his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the keynote at the annual reception of Association of German Banks on the occasion of their 75th anniversary in Berlin, Germany.

·       Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen speaks at a conference in Espoo, Finland.

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Greece Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Italy Construction Output (February)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (February)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       EARNINGS: M&C Saatchi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Israel, Yom Hazikaron, or Memorial Day, a commemoration for fallen soldiers and victims of militant attacks, begins.

·       Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambican President Daniel Chapo will visit China through April 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Global

·       The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire at midnight.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

·       UN Climate Week event kicks off in the coastal city of Yeosu, running until Saturday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be next chair of the Federal Reserve.

·       The Bahamas will host the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP4) on Environmental Affairs of Latin America and the Caribbean in Nassau.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution Event, Washington, D.C.

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (March)/ Redbook (April/18)/ Business Inventories (February)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/17)

·       Colombia Imports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: United Airlines, 3M, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, Danaher, Quest Diagnostics, Halliburton, CapitalOne, Interactive Brokers, Chubb, Annaly, RTX, Northrup Grumman

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC) is expected to convene its 22nd session in late April. The Council of Chairpersons was expected to meet in mid-April to set the agenda and dates. The session is expected to review a draft revision to the Bid Invitation and Bidding Law and draft revision to the Water Law, with additional bills also possible. While largely legislative rather than headline-grabbing, this is a key mechanism through which CCP policy priorities are formalized into law.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q1/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q1/ Inflation Rate Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to unveil the fourth element of its security guarantees for Ukraine at this session, covering Defence reform, cyber and hybrid measures, demining, and arms control.  The Council will also consider unblocking a €90 billion loan for Ukraine for 2026–2027 and discuss the 20th package of sanctions against Russia.  Additional ministers will be discussing the crisis with Iran, and its impact on the broader region and Europe, the South Caucasus (including Georgia), and Sudan, with discussion expected on tightening pressure on Russia across all dimensions. 

·       There will be an informal video conference of EU Transport Ministers. They are expected to discuss the Iranian situation and its impact on the EU transport sector.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Ankara, Turkey for meetings with President Tayyip Erdoğan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, and Minister of National Defense General Yaşar Gûler.

·       The UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee has invited Sir Olly Robbins, the top Foreign Office civil servant who was sacked last week, to give evidence at its meeting today.  Robbins was the senior official who signed off on Peter Mandelson’s background check, clearing him to be named UK Ambassador to the United States – and covering up his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

·       In the UK, the RMT union is due to begin the first of two 24-hour strikes on Tube lines over four-day working week proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks followed by Q&A at an event organized by La Razón in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at the International Economics Symposium in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher gives opening remarks at a conference on Ukraine in Vienna, Austria.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge participates in a panel about decision-making psychology in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Average Earnings incl. & excl. Bonus/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       EARNINGS: Associated British Foods, British Land, Beiersdorf, Jupiter Fund Management, Thales, WR Berkley, Rio Tinto

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV continues his African tour with a visit to Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/17)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/17)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, IBM, Boeing, AT&T, Boston Scientific, Philip Morris, CME Group, SCX, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, Moody’s, Raymond James

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Criminal Court is set to release its decision on whether the case of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte falls within its jurisdiction, after his defense team filed an appeal. Duterte is currently in detention in the Netherlands on charges related to crimes against humanity for his role in masterminding a bloody campaign against the illegal drug trade in his country.

·       The TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium takes place in Santa Clara, California.  The company will provide updates on its latest technological progress and breakthroughs, with a heavy focus on artificial intelligence. Of particular interest will be the Taiwanese chip titan's comments on the state of cutting-edge chip production processes, including 3-nanometer, 2-nm, A16, A14 and beyond.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of states through April 24 in Leftkosia, Cyprus.  Leaders will first discuss the situation in Iran and how the EU can best address the war and its impact.  They will also address the challenging geopolitical environment and provide political guidance on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028–2034.  Key elements include:

• Dinner discussions on April 23 beginning with a briefing from President Zelenskyy on Russia's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. 

• Discussion of the conflict in Iran and the Middle East, including Europe's contribution to de-escalation, freedom of navigation, and the effects of high fossil fuel prices on European citizens and companies. 

• A working session on the morning of April 24 focused on the next MFF, including discussions on New Own Resources and the EU budget's contribution to the competitiveness agenda. 

• An informal working lunch with leaders from the Middle East region to discuss shared challenges and opportunities for cooperation.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum XI begins in Delphi, Greece. Speakers include president of the European Council António Costa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will take part in a panel in honor of Nick Stern" organized by London School of Economics and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London, UK.  IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also is scheduled to speak.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a conversation "Banking reform in the EU – How should the EU balance banking reform, risk and competitiveness?" organized by Bruegel in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Chief Economist Philip R. Lane will give the keynote speech at a high-level ESRB workshop on European safe assets in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later he will participate in a panel discussion at Pre-presidency Irish Financial Issues Conference organized by the Consulate General of Ireland, CFS at Goethe University, Hertie School Jacques Delors Centre and Frankfurt Chamber of Industry and Commerce in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a conversation with Nicolas Véron for Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual series and podcast "What now, Europe?".

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a panel discussion at EU finance conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is part of an FT fireside chat about private credit in London, England.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks at the launch of the Gender Balance Index 2026, organized by OMFIF.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Euro Area Government Budget to GDP 2025/ Government Debt to GDP 2025/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (April)

·       Poland Business Confidence (April)

·       Russia Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: ABB, Aberdeen, Danone, L’Oreal, Nordea Bank

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 23, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it will hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       G& Environmental Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro will meet with Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez in the Venezuelan city of Maracaibo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (March)/ PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/22)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       Warner Bros Discovery holds a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Paramount Skydance for $31 a share. If approved, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.

·       EARNINGS: Nokia, Intel, Newmont, Dow, Blackstone, American Express, Huntington Bank, American Airlines, Lockheed Martin, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Verisign, Comcast, Keurig Dr Pepper, Freeport-McMoRan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Two of India's politically crucial states -- West Bengal and Tamil Nadu -- hold elections at a time when the country is grappling with a cooking gas shortage driven by supply chain disruptions owing to the Middle East conflict, an issue that is expected to weigh on voters' minds. While Tamil Nadu in India's south is going to the polls in a single stage, West Bengal in the country's east will hold its second and final phase on April 29.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q1

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of the April 29-30 rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on central-bank independence in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Seim speaks in Umea, Sweden.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       France S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Wage Tracker Q1

·       EARNINGS: BP, Dassault Systémes, Heineken, London Stock Exchange Group, Nokia, Orang, Renault, Sainsbury’s, Sanofi, WHSmith, Nestlé

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

·       Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson speaks at the Empire Club of Canada.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/24)

·       Canada Budget Balance (February)

·       EARNINGS: Proctor & Gamble, Schlumberger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Auto China Show, one of the world's largest auto shows, begins in Beijing.  The event will spotlight China's emergence as a major EV player at a time when the Iran war has made alternatives to pricey gasoline more attractive. Thousands of exhibitors and visitors will descend on the venue for 10 days. Chinese EV makers will be looking to set themselves apart with new innovations, aiming to leave behind a bruising domestic price war and ramp up exports.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q1/ Consumer Confidence Q1

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Greece for talks Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Athens, Greece.

·       Russian Foreign Ministry holds its quarterly briefing in Moscow, Russia.

·       Today is St. George’s Day celebrations, commemorating England’s patron saint.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks at the bank’s Annual General Meeting in Bern, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Electrolux, Kuehn+Nagle, Mondi, Telia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House Correspondents Dinner will take place in Washington, D.C.  President Trump is scheduled to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day, commemorating the first major military action Australia and New Zealand took in World War I. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom Day in Portugal, commemorating the end of political dictatorship.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 26, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Center for China & Globalization holds the 12th China Global Think Tank Innovation Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

• April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

• April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.

• April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.

• April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.

• May 3 – 6 – The Milken Institute Global Conference is held in Beverly Hills, California.

• May 10 – Lebanon is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

• May 31 – Colombia holds presidential elections.

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Facing Trump’s Latest Deadline, Taiwan’s Opposition Leader Travels to Beijing for Meetings, Peru and Hungary Hold Elections, and Markets Brace For The First Economic Reports Reflecting the Impact

April 5 - 12, 2026

We hope you had a peaceful Passover or Easter holiday.  The geopolitical week ahead will again be dominated by the escalating war in Iran.  On Monday morning, the latest deadline President Trump gave Iranian leaders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or, according to a profane Truth Social post, Iran will face massive bombings “and complete destruction” of all Iranian electrical power plants, bridges, and other civilian infrastructure. 

President Trump suggested in a press interview Sunday that his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are working through back channels to find a peaceful solution.  And he extended – again – the deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

As we said, the Iran situation will dominate global markets' attention, but there is an interesting event taking place this week in China.  Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party (KMT) opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, will be traveling to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese leaders.  Cheng is going at the invitation of President Xi and is considered a high-stakes gambit.  But it could also lead to further meetings between senior KMT officials and Beijing to de-escalate tensions between Taiwan and China.  She makes the trip as the KMT continue to stall legislation in parliament funding an additional $40 billion in defense spending. 

Two major elections are taking place this week, in Hungary and Peru. Hungary's parliamentary elections on Sunday are shaping up to be a difficult battle for 16-year incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Polls suggest the race is neck and neck between Orbán's Fidesz Party and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party. Orbán, a close ally of both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, asked President Trump to campaign for him this week. However, with Trump preoccupied by the Iran conflict, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to travel to Budapest to meet with Orbán.

In Peru, a record 35 candidates are running for president. The latest polls suggest conservative Keiko Fujimori — running for president for the fourth time — holds the lead, though a runoff is almost certain given the size of the field. The elections come after a prolonged period of political instability. Former President Pedro Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress in December 2022 and was subsequently impeached. His Vice President, Dina Boluarte, assumed the presidency but was removed by Congress in October 2025 for "moral incapacity." She was succeeded by the President of Congress, José Jeri, who became the country's seventh president in nine years — only to be removed in February 2026 after it emerged that he had held undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman under government investigation. Jeri was replaced by José María Balcázar, then President of Congress, who assumed the interim presidency — the eighth in nine years — to oversee the transition to these elections.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be looking at the U.S. March CPI on Friday.  That report is expected to kick off a series of reports showing the negative impact of the Iran War on the global economy.

Also on the U.S. calendar this week: the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the March ISM Services report (Monday), the February PCE (Thursday), and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Friday).

In Europe, the European Central Bank's Governing Council will convene for a retreat on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the economic outlook. Germany also releases trade and industrial production figures this week.

In Asia, China releases its March PPI and CPI reports on Friday. Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Survey on Wednesday, Consumer Confidence on Thursday, and PPI on Friday. The Bank of Korea meets on interest rates — with no change expected — and Taiwan reports CPI on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday.

·       Eight Opec+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — meet to decide on their output policy for May.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia’s Daylight Savings Ends.

·       Kyoto, Japan holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

Monday, April 6, 2026

Global

·        The G-24 meeting is being held in advance of the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to comply with his demand for them to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is today (10:05 a.m. EST).  Trump will then hold a press conference with US military leaders at 1:00 p.m.

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Easter holiday.

·       Chilean President Jose Antonio Kast visits Argentina to meet with President Javier Milei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       USA ISM Services PMI (March)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam's new National Assembly members, elected in March for five-year terms, start their first legislative session. The rubber-stamp parliament will vote on the country's top leaders, including president and prime minister, in addition to debating laws.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       AMRO is set to release its annual regional economic outlook, offering an assessment of long-term growth trends across Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and China. The reports are expected to underscore the impact of rising uncertainty in global trade and heightened geopolitical tensions.

·        Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Most European governments are closed in observance of Easter Monday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       It is Easter Monday in Europe.  Most financial markets and banks are closed as is the European Central Bank.

·       Spain Unemployment Change (March)

·       Serbia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Jordan PPI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of Burundi celebrates President Ntaryamira Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market at the University of Detroit Mercy College of Business Administration Charlton Center for Responsible Investing Speaker Series, Detroit, Michigan.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ Redbook (April/04)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (April)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations/Consumer Credit Change (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/03)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (March)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Levis, Skillsoft, XCEL Brands, Exxon Q1 preview

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Finance ministry and central bank officials from the 11 ASEAN member states will meet in Manila, the Philippines through Friday to discuss financial services integration, regulatory cooperation and capital market development.

·       Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT), makes a closely watched visit to China. She is expected to meet President Xi during her stay through Sunday, which would mark the first engagement between the sitting leaders of the Communist Party and KMT in a decade. Beijing refuses to talk with the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party administration in Taiwan, which sees Cheng's visit as part of an effort to undercut it and undermine defense cooperation with the U.S.

·       The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is set to release its annual survey of Southeast Asian attitudes on regional strategic developments and issues impacting members of the ASEAN bloc. The report, done in January and February before the Iran war, covers topics such as the South China Sea, rising protectionism and nationalism, as well as U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump.

·       SmartTech Asia, an expo focused on AI, digital payments and smart identity solutions, is held in Mumbai through April 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)

·       Japan Household Spending (February)/ Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)/ Household Spending (February)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Budget Balance (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (March)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukrainian Parliament starts the voting process on reforms required to secure external financing. The final vote is expected on Wednesday.

·       UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow to discuss her candidacy for the UN Secretary General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council attends a retreat hosted by the Banque of France through Wednesday, April 8th.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)

·       Spain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Italy S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       France S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       GITEX AFRICA, Africa’s flagship technology and innovation summit, takes place in Marrakech and runs through April 9.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Vice President JD Vance starts a two-day visit, meeting Viktor Orbán and his officials ahead of voting in what is seen as the prime minister’s toughest election contest since 2010.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets with President Trump in Washington through April 12th.  Rutte comes after renewed threats by President Trump to withdraw from NATO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gives keynote remarks and speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce in St. George, Utah.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (March)

·       US Federal Reserve FMOC Minutes

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/03)/ Used Car Prices (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks & Gasoline Change (April/03)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Delta Airlines, Richardson Electronics, Applied Blockchain

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Touch Taiwan, one of Taiwan's biggest industry gatherings of the first half of the year, kicks off in Taipei with a focus on smart displays, advanced manufacturing, industrial materials, green technology and more. Exhibitors include Delta Electronics, Innolux, Merck and Corning.

·       The QS China Summit is held in Shenzhen, China through April 9.  The Summit is considered a premier forum for academics, industry experts, and decision-makers on the future of higher education in China. It's a niche but well-attended event drawing university and corporate leaders.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Current Account (February)

·       Japan Current Account (February)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (March/31)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts the Council of Heads of Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation.

·       In the UK, resident doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association, begin six days of strike action after rejecting the government’s pay offer.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (February)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       France Current Account (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       EARNINGS: Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Inflation Rate (March)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).

·       International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the spring meetings curtain-raiser speech in advance of the Spring IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will give a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada’s Liberal Party’s biennial convention begins in Montreal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (March)/ Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Personal Income (February)/ Personal Spending (February)/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/04)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/08)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (February)

·       Colombia PPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Blackberry, ClearSign, WD-40 Company, Constellation Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines celebrates the Day of Valor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/04)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (February)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Fast Retailing, Seven & I, Tata Consultancy Services

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day official visit, including a meeting with Pope Leo XIV.

·       Today is Kosovo Constitution Day, a national holiday.

·       The Politico European Pulse Forum begins in Barcelona, Spain, and runs through April 10th.  Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, European Commission Executive Vice President for Competition Teresa Ribera, along with a number of other EU and Spanish government officials and CEOs will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Member Olaf Sleijpen gives a keynote speech at the DNB pension seminar in Amsterdam.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before a European Parliament economic committee in his capacity as chair of the Financial Stability Board.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

·       Spain Industrial Production (February)

·       Greece Industrial Production (February)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The WiT Africa Conference, which is focused on the Asian travel industry in Africa, kicks off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 10, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Bilderberg Meeting takes place outside of Washington, D.C., through April 12th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Court of International Trade to consider the legality of President Donald Trump’s latest round of global tariffs, in lawsuits filed by 24 states and two small businesses.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (February)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (March)/ Participation Rate (March)/ Average Hourly Wages (March)

·       USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Factory Orders (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Asia Development Bank (ADB) is set to release its annual regional economic outlook for Asia.

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

·       Japan Bank Lending (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

·       China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Sales (March)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/20)/ Deposit Growth (March/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (March)/ GDP (March)

·       Earnings: Yaskawa Electric

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at an event entitled "Economía y Territorio: Claves para un desarrollo inclusivo" organised by Cámara Oficial de Comercio, Industria y Servicios de Soria in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Sodexo

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Djibouti holds its presidential elections. incumbent president Ismaïl Omar Guelleh who won a fifth term in 2021, has been president since 1999. Originally ineligible for a sixth term due to the age limit of 75 that Guelleh imposed as part of the reforms, Djibouti passed a constitutional amendment in 2025 that lifted age limits, allowing him to run again.

·       The 9th Indian Ocean Conference begins in Mauritius and runs through April 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Global

·       The U.S. temporary license for seaborne Russian oil sales is set to expire.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 12, 2026

Global

·       Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

·       Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.  There are 35 candidates running for president an almost assuredly will lead to a run-off election.  Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin holds Presidential elections. The ruling coalition and Romuald Wadagni, current minister of state for Finance and Cooperation and Talon’s designated successor, are likely to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

• April 13 – 19 – The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings are to be held in Washington, D.C., bringing together finance ministers, central bank governors, and other officials from around the world.

• Week of April 13 – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members of the committee have vowed to hold up the confirmation until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

The Global Week Ahead

The US and Iran Begin Talks to Avert a US Military Strike, The US Hosts a Critical Mineral Summit, Japan Holds Elections, and the ECB and Bank of England Meet on Interest Rates

February 1 - 8, 2026

Washington remains frozen and covered in “snowcrete,” but there is a lot going on here in terms of geopolitical activity.   First, it appears the US will be meeting with Iranian officials face-to-face this coming Friday in Istanbul to attempt to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program.  Up until this point, there have been no official face-to-face meetings between the two countries, but Iran, seeing the approach of a large US Naval force and President Trump’s demands for talks, relented.  The impact on oil/gas markets could be significant if an agreement is ultimately reached.

 Also this week, on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hosting a critical minerals ministerial meeting where a dozen or more foreign ministers will gather to hammer out the details of a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework.  The proposed Framework would ensure all signatories have access to critical minerals, facilitating greater and freer trade.  Among the confirmed attendees are India, South Korea, Australia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea, and Kenya. 

Finally, we would note that President Trump is scheduled to meet with Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Wednesday.  The aim of the meeting is to de-escalate tensions after Trump snatched Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and began to bicker with Petro over drug interdiction policy.  A positive outcome of the meeting would further solidify Trump's policy of greater US engagement and influence in the Hemisphere.

Turning to Asia, on Sunday, Japan heads to the voting booth after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called snap elections.  Polls suggest Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could score a landslide victory (estimates put it at more than 233 of the total 465 seats), giving her a strong hand to push forward with her “proactive” fiscal policy focused on bigger spending and tax cuts. 

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big events are in Frankfurt and London, respectively, as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet to consider further interest rate cuts.  Both are expected to hold off on any further rate cuts. 

In the US, the major economic releases this week include the jobs report on Friday.  This follows the JOLTS report (Tuesday) and the ADP report (Wednesday).  Also, out this week are the ISM indices on Monday (manufacturing) and Wednesday (services), and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.  

In Europe, the January CPIs for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain are out this week.  Germany releases factor order and industrial production figures this week.  And we will also see retail sales and trade figures for most major Eurozone countries.

In Asia this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide on interest rates.  China releases January PMIs on Saturday, and in Japan, the Bank of Japan releases its summary of recent interest rate deliberations.  

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held virtually.

·       The UK assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

·       The Arctic Frontiers Conference is held in Tromso, Norway.

·       The International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit begins in Porto, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents the country's annual budget for the fiscal year starting in April, with the focus likely to be on fields such as infrastructure development, green energy and steps to boost export competitiveness amid U.S. President Donald Trump's punishing 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Union Budget 2026

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The second round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is scheduled to begin in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 2, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy before the Atlanta Rotary Club.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (January)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (January)/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

·       EARNINGS: Palantir, Disney, Tysons Food

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The travel period for China's Spring Festival celebrations will commence and last through March 13th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)/ Commodity Prices (January)

·       Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q4/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Central Japan Railway, East Japan Railway

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Oslo Security Conference is held through February 3rd in Oslo, Norway.

·       French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu will face his third and last set of no-confidence votes in the National Assembly over his decision to pass the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Internal Market and Industry), through February 3rd in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech entitled “Talking ‘bout Next Generation” at the City & Financial Payments Regulation and Innovation Summit 2026 in London.

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Germany Retail Sales (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (December)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ BoE Jackson Speech/ Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Julius Baer

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Saudi Capital Markets Forum begins in New York and runs through February 3rd.  The country formally is opening its markets to foreign investors today.

·       The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is scheduled to open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Data Centres Association hosts a conference on cloud and data centers in Tunis through February 3rd.

·        

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Global

·       The World Governments Summit begins in Dubai and runs through February 5th.  International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is among the speakers.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.

·       Netflix Inc. Co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos will testify before the US Senate’s antitrust subcommittee on Tuesday, taking the stage to assuage politicians’ concern about his company’s $82.7 billion deal for Warner Bros. and HBO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the SC First Steps “Early Advantage: Foundations for South Carolina's Economic Vitality" event.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman takes part in a moderated conversation at the WSJ Invest Live event in New York

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Industrial Production (December)

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)/Redbook (January/31)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ JOLTs Job Quits (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/30)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Colombia Exports (December)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Amgen, Emerson Electric, Clorox, PepsiCo, Paypal, Pfizer, Prudential Financial, Willis Towers Watson, LATAM Airlines, Merck

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Singapore Airshow begins and runs through Sunday.  More than 1000 aerospace and defense companies from 50 countries will participate.

·       The Chinese Communist Party and Taiwan's Kuomintang party will recommence party-to-party talks, suspended in 2016, in China through February 4th.

·       The Indonesia Economic Summit, hosted by the Indonesia Business Council, holds a two-day annual event in Jakarta, inviting global business leaders and policymakers to discuss industry challenges for the development of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (January)

·       Japan Monetary Base

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Interest Rates and holds Press Conference/Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (December)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       EARNINGS: Nintendo, West Japan Railway, Mitsubishi Electronic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal video conference among EU Housing Ministers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at the Afore Consulting 10th Annual FinTech and Regulation Conference in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania PPI (December)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (January)/ Budget Balance (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (January)

·       EARNINGS: Publicis Groupe

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

·       Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mozambican Heroes Day, a national holiday.

·       Solar energy executives gather in Nairobi for the Intersolar Africa business summit.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts a Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington DC with multiple foreign ministers attending.  The State Department is circulating a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework for attending countries to sign.

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify  before the House Financial Services Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

·       The New START Treaty expires.  The US and Russia treaty helped restrict the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

·       “The Muppet Show” returns being shown on ABC and Disney+. American culture is saved.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/30)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/30)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity (January)/ ISM Services Employment (January)/ ISM Services New Orders (January)/ ISM Services Prices (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/30)/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Alphabet, Boston Scientific, Eli Lilly, Fox Corp, Johnson Controls McKesson, Stanley Black & Decker, Qualcomm, T Rowe Price, Uber

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones holds a fireside chat at the Investment Magazine 2026 Chair Forum.

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q4/ Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (January)/ Ai Group Construction Index (January)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (January)

·       China RatingDog Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/23)

·       EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Panasonic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in an informal dinner and exchange of views with Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security as well as Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency, in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)/ PPI (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (January)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

·       EARNINGS: UBS, Credit Agricole, Handelsbanken, Santander, Watches of Switzerland

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       There is nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Angola Liberation Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Global

·       Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify  before the Senate Banking Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on monetary policy and navigating the economic environment after graduation at event hosted by the Clark Atlanta University School of Business.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Toronto.

·       Mexican Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/31)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/05)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/04)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (January)

·       Colombia PPI (January)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Amazon, Allstate, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardinal Health, Cigna, Compass, ConocoPhillips, KKR, Hershey, MetLife, News Corp, Thomson Reuter

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysia Economic Forum begins in Kuala Lumpur. The forum will feature Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Siri founder and former Chief Technology Officer Tom Gruber, and senior figures from the private sector, including banking and capital market leaders. 

·       The ASEAN Treasury Forum takes place in Manila, Philippines through February 6th.

·       The 17th East Asia Conference on Competition Law and Policy, a two-day event hosted by Asian Development Bank Institute, begins in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/31)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

·       Indonesia Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Singapore Retail Sales (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       EARNINGS: Nippon Steel, Suzuki, Motor, Sony

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be in informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through February 6th in Brussels.

·       Today is Liberation Day San Marino.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Romania Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (December)

·       France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (January)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: BNP, Vodafone, BBVA, Maersk, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Burundi Unity Day, a national holiday.

·       The RiseUp Summit, focused on startups, meets at the Grand Egyptian Museum in Cairo

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, February 6, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Winter Olympics begin in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy and runs through February 22nd.

·       FAO Food Price Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US is tentatively scheduled to hold talks with Iranian officials in Istanbul on Iran’s nuclear program.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook and supply-side inflation dynamics at a conference entitled:  Supply-Side Factors and Inflation: What Have We Learned? Being hosted by The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Ivey PMI s.a (January)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Used Car Prices (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

·       Colombia Cement Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Kazuyuki Masu gives a speech before local leaders in Ehime, Japan.

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Household Spending (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ BoJ Masu Speech/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Property Price Index Q4

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (January/23)/ Deposit Growth (January/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (January)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Toyota

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech on the digital euro at an event organized by MEP Michalis Hadjipantela in Cyprus.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Member ECB Martin Kocher speaks at the Club of Business Journalists in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the National MC Agency Briefing.

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ GDP (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       EARNINGS: Societe Generale, Skanska

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 7, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA may launch a three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.  This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

·       Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds lower house elections.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position.  More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

·       Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

US – Russia Negotiations with Ukraine Continue, ASEAN Leaders to Hold Emergency Meeting on Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict, the US Puts Further Pressure on Venezuela, and Global Markets Are Quiet This Week

The world is quickly sliding into the Christmas week, hoping for peace and goodwill everywhere.  Two examples of that are the ongoing talks led by US Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who held yet another round of talks with Russian negotiators in Miami yesterday, seeking a Ukraine peace deal.  While the Trump Administration is suggesting that some small gains are being made, their Russian counterparts say nothing is moving.  And from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address and question-and-answer call-in session last week, Russia has no intention of ending this war until it has achieved total victory over Ukraine.  More talks are being scheduled in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers are gathering in Kuala Lumpur this week to see if they can de-escalate the growing conflict between Cambodia and Thailand.  Recall President Trump announced earlier this month that he had negotiated a ceasefire, but that has since broken down as the two sides blame each other for renewed fighting on the border.   At the time of this writing, reports indicate that the two sides have again agreed to meet to discuss a new ceasefire.

Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to escalate, with the US Naval and Coast Guard forces seizing a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.  All three tankers are known to be flying false flags of operation and being part of a larger Venezuelan black market oil sales in contravention of sanctions on the country.  One interesting aspect of the US pressure campaign is how this is negatively impacting Cuba, which has been a strong supporter – politically and militarily – of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s regime.  As the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, the Cuban regime’s economy is close to collapse, with widespread blackouts and an estimated 25 percent of the population having fled the country in recent months.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, with the Christmas holiday, there isn't much that markets are watching for in terms of data releases or central bank action.  The big events in the US will be the release of the delayed Q3 GDP, October durable goods orders, and November industrial production, all coming out on Tuesday.   Also out on Tuesday will be the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for December.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will give a speech on Christmas Day on the Japanese economic outlook.   And in Europe, there are no significant data releases scheduled.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week.  We hope you have a very Merry Christmas!

Sunday, December 21, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian and US negotiators, led by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, meet in Miami to talk further about a peace deal in Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting an informal meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States in St. Petersburg through December 22.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

·       Today is São Tomé Day, a national holiday in the African nation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Economic Activity (October)

·       Canada PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (October)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia hosts a special ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting on Thailand–Cambodia border tensions.

·       China's legislature will convene through Dec. 27 to consider 14 bills, including revisions to the Foreign Trade Law that would expand trade countermeasures.

· Japan’s Niigata Assembly meets to vote on restarting reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear plant.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q3/   Inflation Rate (November)

·       India Infrastructure Output (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Current Account Q3/ Business Investment Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)/ Central Government Debt (November)

·       Greece Current Account (October)

·       Italy PPI (November)

·       Poland Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, a national holiday.

·       The annual Africa and Diaspora Integration Summit convenes in Lagos, Nigeria.

·       The  International Conference on African Studies and Global Africa meets in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security, including the rising tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Office of the US Trade Representative is expected to deliver a Section 301 investigative report on Chinese domination of the semiconductor industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (December)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (October)/ GDP Prel (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Corporate Profits Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Redbook (December/20)/ Industrial Production (October and November)/ Capacity Utilization (October and November)/ Manufacturing Production (October and November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Shipments Index (December)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/19)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (October)/ Imports (October)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q3

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

·       Argentina Current Account Q3

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the birthday of Japanese Emperor Akihito, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Index (October)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (November)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany Import Prices (November)

·       Hungary Current Account Q3

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Federal Government is closed per an Executive Order by President Trump in celebration of Christmas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile PPI (November)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (November)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/19)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/20)/ 15- and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

·       Canada Budget Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Economic Index (October)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/12)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (October)/ Industrial Production (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 25, 2025 

Global

·       It is Christmas Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to the Councilors of Keidanren.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/20)/ Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Federal Government is shut in honor of Christmas per an Executive Order issued by President Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (November)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q3

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/26)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (October)

·       Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Vietnam Mobility Show will take place in Hanoi through December 28 with a focus on electric cars and motorbikes including hybrids. Companies are expected to offer discounts and test drives, while exhibitors will provide demonstrations on charging electric vehicles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production Prel (November)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore           Industrial Production (November)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (December/12)/ Deposit Growth (December/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ivory Coast holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Myanmar holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Central African Republic holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Guinea holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in South Africa, Trump Pushes Ukraine for a Decision on His Peace Deal, Washington Goes Quiet for Thanksgiving, But Will Publish Delayed Economic Data As EU CPIs Come Out

November 23 - 30, 2025

It is hard to believe we are already heading into Thanksgiving here in the US.   It will be a relatively quiet week, not only in the US (Congress is out again this week), but also internationally. 

But there are several important geopolitical events we are watching closely this week.  First, the G20 is meeting this weekend in South Africa.  The US decided to skip the entire meeting and not send any representatives – the first time the US has ever boycotted the G20.   The absence of the US limited the Summit's ability to achieve significant outcomes.   Interestingly, next year’s G20 meeting will be hosted by the US.

Also this week, President Trump’s controversial 28-point peace plan to end the Ukraine-Russia War is facing a tight deadline as Trump has demanded Ukraine give their decision on whether to accept it or not by Thursday.   The plan emerged following meetings between Russian and US officials (no EU officials were involved).  So far, there has been strong pushback from European leaders to Trump’s plan.  And Trump is expected to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday or Tuesday to hear his concerns.  So far, Trump has strongly criticized the European and Ukrainian arguments against his plan.

The plan, as laid out by Trump Special Envoy Steve Sitkoff, would require Ukraine to give up territory that Russia has not occupied.  We are watching for a significantly different counter-proposal to be presented by European leaders before Thursday. 

Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Venezuela continued to rise.  Several airlines have now halted flights to the country after heightened US military activity made such flights too risky.  As to what the Trump Administration is planning is still unclear.  Reports on Sunday suggest the US is preparing a massive media campaign (including airdrops of leaflets) urging Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro to leave the country immediately.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets are awaiting the release of delayed US economic reports (including September retail sales and durable goods orders). The reports were delayed due to the federal government shutdown. 

Also this week, the US Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday.  Then the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday.  The federal government and markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday will be an extremely quiet day for markets.  There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  And in Canada, we will see Q3 GDP numbers.

In Europe, Germany, France, and Italy will release their November CPIs on Friday.   Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Monday, and consumer confidence is out on Tuesday (as is France’s).   In the UK, the Chancellor, Christine Reeves, presents the Autumn Budget to Parliament.  There will be several European Central Bank (ECB) Board speeches this week, including one by ECB President Christine Lagarde.   Plus, the ECB releases minutes from its last meeting.

In Asia,  Japan publishes the November Tokyo CP this week, while Australia releases its October CPI. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week – we hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Global

·       The G20, being held in South Africa, concludes.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina holds early presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (September)               

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 24, 2025

Global

·        The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Gaza/Lebanon), followed by consultations.

·       The UN’s 14th Forum on Business and Human Rights begins in Geneva and online. The theme is accelerating action on business and human rights amid crises and transformation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

·       The U.S. designation of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization is due to take effect.

·       Canada's Newfoundland and Labrador province will hold a general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile PPI (October)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September & October)

·       Paraguay PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese financial markets and government are closed for the Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (October)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-African Union Summit takes place in Luanda, Angola through November 25.  On the sidelines of the Summit, the EU-Africa Business Forum takes place.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss EU-US and EU-China trade relations, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick scheduled to participate.

·       The Chair of the BBC, Dr Samir Shah, and Robbie Gibb, a non-executive member of the BBC board, face questions from Britain’s Member of Parliament on the Culture, Media and Sport Committee about editorial standards at the national broadcaster, following the selective editing of a Donald Trump speech by news program Panorama, which sparked a $1bn defamation threat from the US president and resulted in the resignations of the BBC director-general Tim Davie and BBC news chief Deborah Turness.

·       The Confederation of British Industry's annual meeting takes place in London.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases their report “Stablecoins on the rise: still small in the euro area, but spillover risks loom.”

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the  BratislavAI Forum on Artificial Intelligence and Education as part of OECD high-level event: 25th anniversary of "Better Policies for Better Lives" in Bratislava, Slovakia.

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a presentation at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ECB-NGFS workshop “Vanishing Nature, Rising Risk: a Central Banking and Supervisory Lens on Ecosystem Degradation” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (November)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (October)/ Employment Growth (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 25, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Libya. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Suriname Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)/ Current Account Q3

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Redbook (November/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September)/ House Price Index (September)/ Pending Home Sales (October)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (November)/ Money Supply (October)/ Business Inventories (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/21)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank hosts the 14th Asia Smart Cities Conference in Yokohama, Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Index (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Chile Joint Council meets in Brussels.

·       Today is the National Day of Bosnia & Herzegovina, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases its report “A Systemic risks in linkages between banks and the non-bank financial sector.”

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank of Ireland's Financial System Conference 2025 in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at the Climate Finance Week Ireland 2025 "Supervising Nature Risk: Regulation and Transition" organized by the United Nations Development Programme in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (October)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       France Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Spain PPI (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q3

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Global

·       The OECD launches its Environmental Outlook report, assessing efforts to tackle the “triple planetary crisis” of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (October)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (November)

·       USA Beige Book is published/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/21)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (November/15)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Chicago PMI (November)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/21)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (November/28)// Building Permits (September & October)/ Durable Goods Orders (October)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (September & October)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (September & October)/ Wholesale Inventories (September & October)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ New Home Sales (September & October)/ PCE Price Index (September & October)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (October)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (October)/ CPI (October)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (October)/ RBA Smith Speech

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Economic Index (September)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/14)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review is released.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an acceptance speech at the Transatlantikpreis ceremony 2025 at Steuben-Schurz-Gesellschaft in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the "Macro Outlook" session at conference on Global Market Insights: Navigating the new geopolitical environment organized by Santander CIB in Paris, France.

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2025

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 27, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations is closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Thanksgiving, a national holiday.  The Federal government and financial markets are closed.

·       St. Vincent and the Grenadines holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (November)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

·       Canada Current Account Q3/ Average Weekly Earnings (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to local leaders in Oita, Japan.

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q3/ ANZ Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q3/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q3/ Private Capital Expenditure Q3

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (October)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Malaysia PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Education and Youth) meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks  at the 24th CEDE Congress of Executives in Zaragoza, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates on a panel discussion at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates and speaks at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks at the Goodbody 18th annual conference in Ireland.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Economic Confidence Index (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)/                Economic Sentiment (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Industrial Sentiment (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (November)/ Services Sentiment (November)/ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Industrial Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (October)

·       Spain Business Confidence (November)

·       Russia GDP (September & October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV begins a historic visit to Turkey and Lebanon through December 2.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (October)

Friday, November 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Black Friday, the start of the US Christmas season holiday shopping rush.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October)/ Nominal Budget Balance (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Net Payrolls (October)

·       Chile Copper Production (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Fiscal Balance (October)

·       Canada GDP (September & October)/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Cement Production (October)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA Fed Balance Sheet (November/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Conference (November)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (October)/ Jobs/applications ratio (October)/ Tokyo CPI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/22)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Construction Orders (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Export Prices (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (October)/ Government Budget Value (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/14)/ Deposit Growth (November/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Culture and Sport) meets in Brussels.

·       The Institute for International Finance holds its European Banking Regulation & Supervision Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Today is Albania's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives keynote remarks at the 12th annual IIF Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Car Production (October)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (November)

·       Germany Retail Sales (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployed Change & Persons (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (November)/ Bavaria CPI (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (November)/ Hesse CPI (November)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (November)/ Saxony CPI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)/ Financial Stability Report

·       Hungary PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ KOF Leading Indicators (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (October)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)/ Jobseekers Total (October)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Current Account (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Greece Retail Sales (September)/ PPI (October)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Zimbabwe    Inflation Rate (November)

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, November 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Honduras General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Global

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       OPEC+ meet to discuss market conditions and production goals.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Honduras holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kyrgyzstan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Australia Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland holds a referendum on environmental responsibility.

·       Transnistria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Scotland celebrates St. Andrew’s Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Travels to Asia for the APEC Leaders Meeting and the ASEAN Summit, Trump Will Meet with Japan’s PM Takaichi and China’s Xi Seeking Trade Deals, and it is a Big Week for US, EU, Japan, and Canada Central Banks

October 26 - November 2, 2025

Geopolitics and global markets will be keenly focused on Asia this week.  President Donald Trump travels to Malaysia this weekend at attend the APEC Leaders meeting.  While there, the President is presiding over the signing of a peace deal he helped broker between Cambodia and Thailand and then working to hammer out trade deals with Malaysia, Vietnam, as well Cambodia and Thailand. 

From there, President Trump travels to Japan – his fourth presidential trip there – to meet with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.  Again, the President is hoping to hammer out a framework for a trade deal.  The major sticking point between the US and Japan is whether Prime Minister Takaichi will hold by a pledge her predecessor made of giving $550 billion to the US to fund unspecified projects.

From there, Trump travels to Gyeongju, South Korea for the ASEAN Leaders Summit and a much-anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese officials to iron out a “framework” of an agreement (but not an overarching deal) in advance of the Trump-Xi meeting. 

Bessent reportedly finalized a deal on TikTok and may have gotten an extension of rare earth sales to the US following China’s recent clampdown on sales globally.

Finally, we would note Trump is expected to meet with South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit to work further on a US-South Korea trade deal.

Here in Washington, the federal government shutdown is going into its 5th week.  We would note that this past Friday, air traffic controllers, TSA Agents, and other key government workers experienced their first full paycheck not arriving.  As we get closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, we believe pressure will grow on Congress to hammer out some sort of deal to reopen the government.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, this is going to be a big week for central banks.  The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meet this week on interest rates.  Markets are watching and listening not only for any rate moves but for assessments on how the trade wars might be impacting the longer-term inflation outlook globally.

This week is also a big week for corporate earnings with Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Airbus, Boeing and number of large cap companies reporting.

With the federal government shutdown still in place, there will not be much other major economic reports in the US (Q3 GDP was scheduled to be reported).  We will get the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report on Tuesday.

In Europe, we will get October CPIs and Q3 GDP reports from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, along with the PCE report, plus consumer confidence reports from Germany and Italy and the greater Eurozone on Thursday.

In Asia, China releases October PMIs on Friday along with September retail sales.   Japan releases the Tokyo CPI on Thursday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia. Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN’s 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summertime – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 27, 2025 

Global

·       Vietnam hosts the United Nations’ global convention on cybercrime.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will make an official visit to Japan through Wednesday. While there, he will hold an official summit with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where Trump hopes to wrap up a US-Japan trade deal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)   

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Beijing Financial Forum begins and runs through Friday. More than 400 delegates from 30 countries are expected to attend. People's Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng and top securities regulator Wu Qing are reportedly due to speak.

·       North Korea's top diplomat Choe Son Hui visits Moscow for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)/ FDI (YTD) (September)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock holds a fireside chat at the ABE annual dinner in Sydney, Australia.

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet in Luxembourg.

·       NATO conducts annual nuclear exercise Steadfast Noon.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at a joint ECB and EUI banking governance high-level seminar "Board of the Future" in Florence, Italy.  ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen also will speak.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ Loans to Companies (September)/ Loans to Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)/ ECB Tuominen Speech

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (October)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (September)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)/ BoE Oakes Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Future Investment Initiative, an annual investment event organized by the FII Institute, a non-profit organization run by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, begins in Riyadh.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates today and Wednesday.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/24)/ House Price Index (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)         

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula President von der Leyen will travel to Stockholm to participate in a meeting with the Nordic Leaders and the SG of the Nordic Council of Ministers.  She will meet with Andreas Norlén, Speaker of the Riksdag and then deliver a speech at the 77th session of the Nordic Council.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (September)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Tanzania holds general elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe    Inflation Rate (October)

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The suspension of increased US tariffs on Mexico ends.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference in the afternoon.

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/24)/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/24)/ Decision/Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (September)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Colombia Business Confidence (September)

·       EARNINGS: Boeing, Alphabet, Meta

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-Venezuela Business Forum takes place in Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ US President Trump-China President Xi Meeting

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3  

·       Malaysia PPI (September)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore     Import Prices (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

·       India M3 Money Supply (October/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Netherlands holds snap parliamentary elections following the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition government in June.

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz travels to Ankara, Turkey for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets at the Banca d’Italia in Florence through Thursday, October 30.

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals (September)/ Mortgage Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

·       Italy PPI (September)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       EARNINGS: Deutsche Bank, Adidas, UBS, BASF, Mercedes-Benz, Airbus, TotalEnergies, AB InBev, Stellantis, Lufthansa, Volkswagen

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), and another draft resolution on Colombia.

· The International Energy Agency publishes an annual World Energy Outlook on global energy prospects.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC CEO Summit.  Trump hopes to hammer out a partial trade deal with China, especially around rare earth export controls China has recently instituted.

·       The US’ 25% tariffs on heavy trucks enters into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a pre-recorded speech at the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Outreach Meeting.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Net Payrolls (September)

·       Chile Copper Production (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gives welcoming remarks at The Evolving Landscape of Bank Funding conference hosted by the Dallas Fed.

·       USA EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/29)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September & October)/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3  

·       EARNINGS: Amazon, Apple

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense chiefs from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations will meet in Kuala Lumpur through Nov. 2 for the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting. The gathering comes as the bloc expands its cooperation framework, with Germany and Turkey joining the ADMM observer program for the 2024-2027 term.

·       The Japan Mobility Show, formerly known as the Tokyo Motor Show, will be held through Nov. 9 at Tokyo Big Sight. The theme of this year's event is: "A unique opportunity to explore mobility's future." A record number of over 500 companies and organizations will participate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan begins a two-day board meeting on the economy and interest rates.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/25)/ Stock Investment by

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

·       Australia Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3

·       Philippines Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Thailand Industrial Production (September)

·       EARNINGS: Panasonic, Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways, Apple, Samsung Electronics

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of meetings in Florence and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference hosted by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 4:15 p.m. CET.

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Consumer Confidence (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

·       Germany Unemployed Persons (October)/ Unemployment Change (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Sales (August)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Russia GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (September)

·       Zambia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 31, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Bosnia and Herzegovina, followed by a debate. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

·       G7 energy and Environment Ministers meet in Canada.

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies holds its Manama Dialogue Conference.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       USA Fed Logan Speech/ Chicago PMI (October)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/31)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ PCE Price Index (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (October)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

·       Argentina     Tax Revenue (October)

·       EARNINGS: Chevron, ExxonMobil, T. Rowe Price, Weyerhaeuser, Canadian National Railway, Ingersoll Rand, AbbVie, Aon

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Leaders Meeting takes place in South Korea.  Leaders of the 21-member organization are expected to meet over two days.  President Trump is expected to hold talks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. South Korea is also hoping to use the meeting to promote foreign investment.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)           

·       South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Tokyo Core CPI (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

·       Australia PPI Q3/ Housing Credit (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (October)

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (September)/ Business Confidence Q3

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Thailand Current Account (September)/ Private Investment & Consumption (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Government Budget Value (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/17)/ Deposit Growth (October/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/24)        

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Mitsubishi Electric,

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia holds local elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Banca d’Italia will host the 11th edition of their International Macroeconomics Workshop, jointly organized with the Bank of England and Banque de France, at their base in Rome.

·       Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ MPC Meeting Summary

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)   

·       Hungary PPI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area     Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI (October)

·       Greece Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Current Account (September)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (September)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cote d’Ivoire holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (September)/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 1, 2025

 Global

·       Sierra Leone assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 2, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Daylight Savings Time ends in the US.

·       Mexico celebrates the Day of the Dead Parade in Mexico City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)     

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Peace Comes to Gaza and Hostages Are To Be Released, The US Government Remains Shutdown, China Cuts off Rare Earth Exports, Argentina’s Milei Meets with Trump Again, and The Annual World Bank/IMF Take Place in Washington, DC

October 12 - 19, 2025

It will be a historic week as Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump gather in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to witness the signing of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas brokered by Trump. And, after more than two years of captivity, the remaining Israeli hostages are scheduled to be released on Monday. More than 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and more than 1700 detainees rounded up since Israeli forces entered Gaza are to be released.

The challenge now is to keep the ceasefire going in the second phase of the agreement.  This includes questions about the future governance of Gaza, getting Hamas to disarm, and how to rebuild the devastated region.

Also this week, Argentine President Javier Milei will travel to Washington to meet with President Trump to discuss the newly inked bailout package the US is giving Argentina.  The US Treasury intervened in the Argentine currency market to stabilize the peso.  Milei is hoping to garner further support from Trump as mid-term elections approach in Argentina.

All this comes as China moved to impose tough new export controls on rare earths, lithium-ion batteries, and synthetic diamonds – a move which shocked many countries and triggered President Trump to impose new 100 percent tariffs on China on Friday.  Markets are trying to ascertain how serious and long-term China’s moves are, or if it is merely a negotiating tactic by China’s President Xi in advance of a possible meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN meeting later this month. 

Finally, the US federal government remains shutdown and from all indications, will remain shut down this coming week.  There appears to be little to no real negotiations between Congressional Democrats and Republicans, and the House of Representatives is expected to remain out of session this coming week.  Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has begun laying off federal employees as opposed to furloughing them.  And with the shutdown, a number of US data releases will not be released.

This brings us to this week’s global economic and financial radar screen.  Dominating the week will be the  2025 World Bank/IMF Annual meetings and the many side events being held in Washington – the most important being the Institute for International Finance’s annual member meeting – where numerous central bankers will pop by to give speeches and participate on panels.

Looking at the Americas, with the US federal government shutdown still going on, most major data releases are either being canceled or delayed (leaving the Federal Reserve will remain flying somewhat blind on data in advance of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, October 28 – 29.)   The most important now-delayed release is the September CPI which was scheduled to come out October 15th.  That report has now been rescheduled to October 24.

What is likely to guide markets is the large number of Federal Reserve and regional Fed speeches this week, including Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday.   Also, we would note this week we will see a number of major bank and financial institutions earnings reports including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BlackRock.

 Turning to Europe, we will see Eurozone labor market data releases and the German ZEW Survey on Tuesday, GDP numbers on Thursday, and lots of speeches from European Central Bank board members – including several by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

In Asia this week, the big economic releases will be coming out of China where trade figures are published on Monday and inflation data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Afghan Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqui, will visit India and will reportedly discuss developmental assistance, among other things.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections. President Paul Biya is running for his 8th term in office. If he wins, he will be in office as president until he is 100 years old.

·       Equatorial Guinea celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 13, 2025

 Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting week begins in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil production report.

·       The Nobel Prize in Economics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump travels to Egypt to attend the Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza, negotiated by Trump.

·        

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets are closed.

·       It is Columbus Day in the US.  Stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed, as are most banks, and the US government is closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting," Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.”

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       President Xi Jinping to attend the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders’ Meeting on Women in Beijing, where he will deliver a keynote speech.

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand travels to New Delhi to meet with meets with India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.  Anand then travels to Singapore for a meeting with Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan. From there, Anand travels to China for talks with China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Services NZ PSI (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Inflation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Albania to meet with President Bajram Begaj and Prime Minister Edi Rama.  She will participate in the opening ceremony of the EU-Western Balkans Investment Forum.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with President Jakov Milatovic and Prime Minister Milojko Spajic.

·       The 71st Annual Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly will be held in Ljubljana, Slovenia

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers through October 14 in  Horsens, Denmark.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to discuss the rule of law, the “fight against Russian impunity,” and Eurojust.

·       NATO’s annual two-week nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon will begin in the Netherlands.

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis in Athens, Greece.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene delivers the keynote address at the SPE Annual Conference in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (August)

·       Turkey Current Account (August)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza.

·       The remaining living Israeli hostages in Gaza will likely be released either today or tomorrow as part of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement.

·       President Trump is expected to travel to Jerusalem, Israel, where he will address the Israeli Knesset.

·       Israel celebrates Simchat Torah Eve. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Global

·       The IMF publishes their World Economic Outlook report.

·       The International Energy Agency monthly oil market report is published.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions. In the morning, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

·       The Institute for International Finance Annual Membership meeting begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through October 17. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump is expected to welcome Argentina’s President Javier Milei to the White House. They are expected to discuss the US’s recent bailout of the Argentine economy and regional security issues.

·       The 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber imports from Canada and elsewhere go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers holds a fireside chat at the B.C. Business Summit in Vancouver.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September/Redbook (October/11)

·       Canada Building Permits (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Aeon, BlackRock, BP, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, LVMH, Publicis Groupe, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. and China are due to begin collecting port fees on each other's ships, in an escalating competition for the seas. Washington announced its docking charges earlier this year to challenge Chinese maritime dominance and revive American shipbuilding. On Friday, Beijing said it would respond in kind.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)     

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)

·       China New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing SE

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss civil protection and health preparedness, the Schengen Agreement, Migration and other issues.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina.  She will meet with the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and meet with Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers Borjana Krišto; visits the Srebrenica Memorial Centre.

·       Today is Defender of Ukraine Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives remarks at the ECR Expert Policy conference "What Future for the Digital Euro?" organized by European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum 2025 in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the Ethics and Compliance Conference organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor presents remarks and a fireside chat with FT columnist Gillian Tett at Kings College, Cambridge, on ‘diversion ahead’.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ECB Donnery Speech     

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Romania Current Account (August)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-monitored Gaza-Egypt pedestrian border crossing reopens.

·       Today is Yemen Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings formally begin in Washington, D.C.

·       G7 Finance Ministers are expected to meet in Washington to discuss increasing pressure on Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on “Economic Mobility" before the United Way Regional Summit on Economic Mobility for Children and Youth.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on artificial intelligence at the 2025 D Fintech Week.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/10)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/10)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (August)/ Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Abbot Laboratories, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group., Progressive

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Diet will hold an extraordinary session to elect a new prime minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a fireside chat at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at a Citi conference in Sydney.

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       China Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q3

·       India Unemployment Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) meeting in Brussels. EU Defense Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte chairing the session.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the Arab League Summit in Moscow.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister Đuro Macut.  Later, she travels to Kosovo to meet with President Vjosa Osmani and caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Later in the day, she travels to North Macedonia: to meet with President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova and Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and then meets President of the Assembly Afrim Gashi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening address at the 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.  Later, he gives remarks at the 25th anniversary of Alantra in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel at the IIF Annual Membership meeting in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor, financial stability, Sarah Breeden is a panelist at the Fintech Foundation 2025 DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden speaks in a panel event at the Single Resolution Mechanism 10th Anniversary Conference in Brussels.

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)/ Residential Property Prices (August)            

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Housing Starts (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before a virtual Aiken County Chamber of Commerce event.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Governor Christopher J. Waller, New York, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks at the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference (virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the  Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Risk Management Association.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City.

·       USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October/NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/10)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/15)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/11)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/11)/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Inventories (August)

·       EARNINGS: Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, ABB, CSX, Interactive Brokers, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Marsh McLennan, Nordea Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor, Travelers, United Airlines, US Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Okinawa.

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)/BoJ JGB Purchase/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg.

·       The European Commission will unveil its "Roadmap for Defence Readiness." 

·       The 2025 Arctic Circle Assembly will meet in Iceland.  It is expected that more than 2,000 people representing more than 60 countries will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an IMF's Debate on the Global Economy: Shaping Economic Policies in the Face of Disruptive Change in Washington D.C., USA

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the SSM Conference on Digitalization in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a roundtable discussion "Central Banking and Supervision in a Geopolitically Fragmented World: Risks, Responses, and Cooperation" organized by Toronto Centre in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel panel "Monetary Crosscurrents: Rethinking Frameworks Amid Trade and Policy Fragmentation" at 2025 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Growth and Innovation in an Uncertain World" in Washington D.C.,

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Friday, October 17, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem discusses the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Institute for International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.

·       USA Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Building Permits (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       EARNINGS: American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, Truist Financial, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The KMT, Taiwan's biggest opposition party, chooses a new leader as it seeks a path back to power. The KMT has lost three straight presidential elections to the Democratic Progressive Party, most recently in January 2024. But it enjoys a legislative majority with its smaller partner, the Taiwan People's Party, and it has momentum after vanquishing efforts to recall some of its lawmakers this summer. The winner will be in a position to influence how Taiwan handles cross-strait tensions with China and tricky ties with the U.S..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/11)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore     Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/03)/ Deposit Growth (October/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives remarks and takes questions at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) "Addressing Regulatory Fragmentation" roundtable discussion in Washington D.C.

·       Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Annual Conference.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

·       UN Security Council Resolution 2231 will expire today, unless extended. The Security Council unanimously adopted the resolution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bolivia Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion at Group of Thirty opening panel "Global Economic Outlook" in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollon participates on a panel discussion at Euro50Group meeting in Washington D.C.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Makes 2nd State Visit to the UK, US-China Trade Talks Start Up Again, Qatar Holds Emergency Summit Following Israeli Attack,  and Multiple Central Banks Decide Rates This Week

September 14 - 21, 2025

This week, the most significant geopolitical events with market implications will be in Europe.  President Trump will travel to London this week for his second official state visit, which will involve a white tie dinner with King Charles.  For UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is still reeling from having to fire his Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, this past week for his close ties to Jeffrey Epstein, it is a high-stakes meeting as he seeks a deal on British steel and aluminum products, which are currently subject to 25% US tariffs.

Just prior to the UK meetings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid to discuss trade and mutual security matters.  Specifically, Bessent will discuss the US threat to impose tough new sanctions on any country purchasing Russian oil.  Considering China is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, these meetings will be crucial for markets trying to gauge the future of oil prices.  Bessent is also going to press China to buy more US agricultural products, especially soybeans.  Chinese purchases of American soybeans have plummeted, putting US farmers in tough economic straits.

Also this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s plans for Gaza and the overall situation in the Middle East following Israel’s attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar.   While he is in Israel, the Qatari’s are holding an emergency meeting of Arab leaders to discuss how best to respond to Israel’s bombing strike. 

Closer to home, we will be watching as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with President Claudia Sheinbaum.  The two leaders are expected to discuss not only mutual trade issues but also how to better respond to President Trump’s ongoing tariffs on both countries.

Here in Washington DC this week, we expect Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran to be confirmed Monday (or perhaps early Tuesday) for an open seat on the Federal Reserve Board which will give him the ability to participate in this week’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FMOC) meeting on interest rates – a sure vote for lowering interest rates by at least 25 basis points with Miran likely pushing for a 50-basis point cut.

This brings us to the global economic and financial radar screen for the coming week.  It is a big week for central bank meetings on interest rates.  The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Central Bank of Norway, Taiwan’s central bank, and several other central banks are all meeting this week on interest rates.

Looking at major economic releases this week, in the US, the key reports scheduled for Wednesday include August retail sales data, industrial production, and housing starts.

In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be speaking several times.  Germany releases the ZEW survey on Tuesday and PPI data on Friday, while in the UK, August inflation data, labor market data, retail sales, and consumer confidence are reported out this week.

And in Asia, China’s August economic data is out on Monday, including industrial output and August retail sales.  Japan releases CPI data on Friday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo XIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Rubio will then go on to London to join President Trump for meetings with UK officials.

·       US and Chinese officials began a new series of talks in Madrid, Spain on trade and the US’ threat of sanctions on China for buying Russian oil.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will also discuss boosting US agricultural sales to China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia region holds local elections.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to make significant gains. 

·       Russia holds regional elections for 21 gubernatorial elections and 11 regional parliamentary elections.

·       Russia and Belarus will conduct the strategic military exercise Zapad-2025 through September 16.

·       The  International Motor Show Germany (IAA) 2025 begins in Munich, Germany.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Qatar will host an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, Qatar, though September 15 in response to Israel's Sept. 9 attack on Hamas leadership in Doha. . 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Africa dispatched trade officials to Washington, D.C., for talks with the Trump administration on tariffs. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August) 

Monday, September 15, 2025

Global

·       The OECD hosts its Global Forum on Productivity Conference in Paris, France.

·       The BRICS Traditional Values Forum begins in Brasilia, Brazil and runs through September 17

·       The BRICS 1st National Public Health Institute Conference begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through September 17.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The 69th IAEA General Conference will be held in Vienna, Austria through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina’s President Javier Milei's official visit to Paraguay.

·       Canada’s Parliament returns to work following its summer break.

·       Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran is expected to be confirmed to become a Federal Reserve Board Governor.

·       The US Navy and Marine Corps will host UNITAS 2025, a military exercise off the coast of Florida and along the east coast of the US.  26 nations will participate including Argentina, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Jamaica, Japan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Singapore, Spain, and the United States.

·       Canada Post mail carriers are expected to escalate strike activity by stopping flyers and neighborhood mail deliveries.

·       The Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS) kicks off their annual conference in Maui, Hawaii.

·       The Beyond Earth Institute hosts a webinar to discuss “Navigating the New Space Policy Landscape: What the Latest Executive Order Means for Your Business.”

·       Today is Costa Rica's Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Guatemala's Independence Day, a national holiday

·       Today is Honduras’ Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Wholesale Sales (July)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States, South Korea and Japan will hold the trilateral Freedom Edge military exercises off South Korea’s southern island of Jeju through September 19.

·       Today is Respect for the Aged Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ FDI (YTD) (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2

·       India WPI Food Index (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers through September 16 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       A delegation of eight MEPs will speak to travel to Washington, DC to meet with members of Congress lawmakers and law enforcement officials through September 18.

·       NovaSpace kicks off their annual World Space Business Week in Paris, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a ‘Conversations pour demain’ on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Institut Montaigne in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the EIB Chief economists meeting in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syrian electoral bodies select members of new transitional parliament.

·       A Turkish court is expected to rule on a case that could remove the main opposition party leader, Ozgur Oze, from office due to procedural irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump arrives in London for meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well as for a dinner with King Charles. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join Trump.  The UK is hoping to break the deadlock over long-delayed quotas to lower tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S.

·       The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) will sign a free trade agreement with the EU on Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· Mexico will celebrate its Independence Day with a military parade planned in Mexico City. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) begin two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates.

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)

·       USA Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/13)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/12)/ International Monetary Market (IMM)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Papau New Guinea, a national holiday.

·       Malaysia will celebrate Malaysia Day, marking its independence. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter leads a fireside chat at the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney.

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with his Austrian, Slovenian, and Polish counterparts on the capitals of each country.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. The Council will start preparations for the October 23-24 2025 European Council by discussing an annotated draft agenda. In public session, the Commission will present a letter of intent on legislative programming and ministers will hold an exchange of views.  As part of the Council’s annual rule of law dialogue, ministers will hold in public session a horizontal discussion on general developments related to the rule of law situation in the EU. Ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries, namely Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Ministers from the four candidate countries will take part in the discussion.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will host a conference entitled “One Year After the Draghi Report” in Brussels.  She along with Mario Draghi will deliver the opening keynote speeches.

·       The 6th Accession Conference with Albania will take place in Brussels.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 4 ‘Green agenda and sustainable connectivity’, including Chapters 14 (transport policy), 15 (energy), 21 (trans-European networks), and 27 (environment and climate change).

·       Ukraine holds Defence Tech Valley 2025 in Lviv, Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (August)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (July)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

·       Germany Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Malawi holds general elections for president and parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The World Trade Organization holds its annual Public Forum through September 18.

·       The  International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants meets in Antibes, France through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The congressionally mandated deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to non-Chinese buyers arrives again (unless President Trump gives it another extension, which he is expected to do).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces interest rate decision followed a by Press Conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/12)/ Building Permits (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/12)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Leading Indicator (August)

·       The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China hosts the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, with military personnel and scholars expected to deliberate on regional security issues and cooperation. The three-day event is set to draw delegates from more than 100 countries and comes on the heels of a recent military parade in Beijing.

·       Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his annual policy address, in which he will talk about plans to steer the city's economy. Analysts are watching for a potential stamp duty cut on residential property purchases, while another topic may be efforts to attract more visitors from mainland China to help struggling local retailers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Singapore           Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones hosts a fireside chat at the Intersekt 2025 Conference in Melbourne.

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/05)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to unveil its proposal for the 19th round of Sanctions on Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to speak about Ukraine offensive to foreign envoys at round table in Moscow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference, jointly with Stanford's Hoover Institution, on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Piero Cipollone participates in the Associazione Bancaria Italiana's Executive Committee meeting (virtual).  Later in the day, he gives the keynote speech at the  De Nederlandsche Bank's Resilience Conference in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the German economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       The Eurofi Financial Forum 2025 will take place in Copenhagen through September 19.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate (September)/ Lending Facility Rate (September)/ CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Pan- African Global Trade & Investment Conference begins in Newark, New Jersey and runs through September 20.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Olympic Committee Executive Board begins a two-day meeting in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Clauda Sheinbaum.  Trade will be the dominant issue discussed and how to deal with US tariffs.

·       Today is Chile Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Business Roundtable is expected to release its quarterly CEO economic outlook for the U.S.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/17)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Earnings: FedEx, Darden Restaurants, M&C Saatchi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (July)

·       Australia Employment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels will hold a policy debate on a proposal to amend the European climate law to establish a binding intermediate climate target for 2040.  The proposal introduces a target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. It also outlines key elements and conditions that the European Commission must reflect in its legislative proposals for the post-2030 policy framework to enable member states to achieve the 2040 target.

·       All major French unions – including air traffic controllers – will join in nationwide strikes and demonstrations against austerity measures expected in the 2026 budget. in France are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision is announced and meeting minutes released.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives a  video message at the opening plenary of 1st edition of Global Leadership by Women Summit in Marseille, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel 'Noisy Experts? Discretion in Regulation' at 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a livestreamed MNI Connect discussion entitled 'Euro Area Growth and Inflation Outlook' in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a policy panel 'The Next Financial Crisis?' at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel joins the panel on Europe and Germany in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Liz Oakes, an external member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England, gives a keynote speech at the Cross Market Operational Resilience Group 2025 conference.

§  Vicky White, director, prudential policy, at the Bank of England, gives a speech at the Bank of America annual CEO conference.

·       Euro area Current Account (July)/ Construction Output (July)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, September 19, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council discusses Nicaragua.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks at an AI event in San Francisco, California.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

·       Canada Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/19)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan policy meeting on interest rates/Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/13

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Copenhagen, Denmark.  The finance ministers will discuss the Eurogroup work program until June 2026.  They will also discuss recent economic developments including an exchange of views with the Chair of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through September 20 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate on a panel discussion at EUROFI Financial Forum in Copenhagen, Denmark.  Later in the day, Board Member Anneli Tuominen will also participate on a panel discussion.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       France Business Confidence (September)/ Business Climate Indicator (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Liberal Democrat party conference begins in the south coast seaside town of Bournemouth, ending on September 23.

·       The 190th Oktoberfest beer festival formally begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum to replace the constitution that was approved in 2020.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

France’s Government Faces a Tough No Confidence Vote, Japan’s Prime Minister Resigns, Brazil’s Former President Faces Prison, and the ECB Meets on Interest Rates

September 7 - 14, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed geopolitical week ahead for markets to keep close tabs on as there are a number of events with significant market implications. 

First, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a no confidence vote on Monday after pushing for an austerity measures to deal with France’s current fiscal deficit which is approaching 5.4%. and the overall highest deficit of any member of the Eurozone.  As things stand now, Bayrou looks like he is going to be forced from office and French President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new prime minister who can mollify the various parliamentary factions and avoid an early legislative election.  That is not going to be easy and, ultimately, it looks as if the only winner out of all this is the far-right National Rally Party.

Overnight in Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced he was stepping down after brutal legislative elections in July for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to losing its parliamentary majority.  Ishiba’s poll numbers were never very strong, but only worsened with President Trump’s tough tariffs on Japan, which Ishiba described as a “national crisis.”  Ishiba has called for the LDP to hold an emergency leadership vote to choose his successor.  No date has been set yet.

Also, this week, there will be a lot of market-impacting political action in Brazil.  Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) is convening on Monday a virtual meeting of the BRICS+ to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and how the BRICS members might form a multilateral response.   Not all of the BRICS leaders will be attending - including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others – who are instead sending aids to cover the meeting (all of which suggests Lula’s efforts are likely not to come to much in terms of an organized response).

But later in the week, the Brazilian Supreme Court will be considering whether former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and seven former aides and allies are guilty of attempting a coup in 2022 after Bolsonaro lost to Lula in elections.   Heated protests have been held around the country in support of Bolsonaro, showing how politically split the electorate is at the moment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screens, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meetings.   Market consensus believes the ECB will hold rates at 2% and is looking for more economic assurances before moving to lower rates going forward.

Also, in Europe this week, the UK releases GDP figures on Friday, Germany releases trade figures and industrial production on Monday, and France releases industrial production figures on Tuesday.

In the Americas this week, markets are looking for the August PPI report on Wednesday and the August CPI report on Thursday, probably the two most important reports out before the Federal Reserve decides on rates on September 17th.  Adding to this will be the University of Michigan consumer survey for September on Friday.  Also, this week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will unveil the 2026 budget, which will be

Turning to Asia, Japan will release its GDP on Monday and PPI on Thursday. China will be releasing trade data on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets to discuss oil output targets.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       (To Be Confirmed) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Argentina through September 10th.

·       In Brazil on Brazil's Independence Day, demonstrations will take place both in support of and in opposition to former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 8, 2025

Global

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host a virtual meeting of BRICS leaders to discuss U.S. trade policies and rally support for multilateralism.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria.  Iran’s nuclear program will be the leading issue discussed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Schoenbaum presents her administration’s draft 2026 budget; budget expected to include plans to increase tariffs on Chinese automotive, textile, and plastics imports.

·       The First Nuclear Energy Conference and Expo sponsored by American Nuclear Society and the Nuclear Energy Institute begins in Atlanta, Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July) 

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Used Car Prices (August) 

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July) 

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee is held in Beijing through September 12th.  They are expected to approve a numb er of draft laws, including a draft atomic energy law, a draft law on public health emergency response, a draft law on national parks, a draft law on the safety management of hazardous chemicals, and other pressing issues.

·       The Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting will kick off in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, bringing together leaders of the body's 18 members. During the five-day gathering, they will discuss challenges facing the region, such as climate change, transnational crime and rising geopolitical tensions between China and West. External partners including the U.S., China, Japan and Taiwan are not invited to the meeting this year.

·       The annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, organized by S&P Global, will kick off in Singapore. Hundreds of petroleum, gas, petrochemical, trading, technology and financial executives, as well as senior government officials from across the globe, are set to convene in the city-state, where issues such as the financing of future energy solutions and the impact of technological innovations and disruptions on the energy sector will be discussed.

·       The 14th Seoul Defense Dialogue (SDD) begins in Seoul.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues his state visit to Cambodia, which runs through Tuesday, as the two Southeast Asian nations look to boost relations. On the agenda are mutual concerns over transnational crime and efforts to bolster cooperation on agriculture, higher education and tourism, as well as to strengthen market access for bilateral and intra-ASEAN trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese investment firm CITIC opens a four-day forum in Hong Kong, bringing in a lineup of top global executives to discuss major issues affecting portfolios. Sessions will cover a range of topics, from cryptocurrencies and China tech to macroeconomic trends.

·       Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August) 

·       Australia Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July) 

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Motorbike Sales (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Norway holds parliamentary elections.

·       French government faces confidence vote in National Assembly.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August) 

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q2 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Second Africa Climate Summit takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Global

·        The 80th session of the U.N. General Assembly will open.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The future of peace operations - Key issues, opportunities and challenges in the context of the review of the future of all UN peace operations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Apple holds its annual media day where it is expected to launch the new iPhone 16.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/05) 

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision 

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August) 

·       EARNINGS: Oracle, Synopsys, GameStop

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Republic Day, marking the day in 1948 when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was proclaimed and Kim Il Sung was declared its premier.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2 

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August) 

·       Philippines Industrial Production (July) 

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August) 

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (August) 

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Singapore  Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Indonesia Car Sales (August) 

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will meet in London.

·       The Defense & Security Exports International (DSEI) Fair begins in London and runs through September 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August) 

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August) 

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech 

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August) 

·       France Industrial Production (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People will convene its 425th meeting in ECOSOC at UNHQ in New York. At this meeting, the Committee will receive briefings by the Permanent Observer Mission of the State of Palestine and Palestinian civil society representatives on the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/05)/ PPI (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/05)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August) 

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Chewy, Daktronics, Vince

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Semicon Taiwan 2025 opens in Taipei. The chip industry's flagship event will welcome over 1,200 companies and is expected to draw more than 100,000 visitors.

·       The 2025 Financial Review Asia Summit takes place in Sydney, Australia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July) 

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August) 

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June) 

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July) 

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July) 

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the 2025 State of the Union address in Brussels.  Later in the day, she receives European Tech and Industry CEOs for a working dinner.

·       Widespread protests are expected across France over the current budget proposal being considered by parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       The Governing Council of the European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings in Frankfurt.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Clauda Buch gives a keynote speech at the BIS Innovation Summit 2025.

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Spain Industrial Production (July) 

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July) 

·       Italy Industrial Production (July) 

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Greece Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ireland Industrial Production (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech 

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference begins in Bangui, Central African Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August) 

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1591 Committee (Sudan and whether to renew sanctions), in the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil report.

· The OECD annual report on fiscal reforms is published in Paris.

·       The OPEC Monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to convict and jail former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup to stay in power in 2022.

·       Nadine Menendez, wife of former U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, is due to be sentenced in a Manhattan district court after being convicted of helping her husband in a scheme to bribe Egyptian officials.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (September) 

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July) 

·       USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/06)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/10) 

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Adobe, Kroger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/06)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/06)/ BoJ JGB Purchases 

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September) 

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July) 

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog travels to London for meetings with UK ministers to discuss the situation in the West Bank and Gaza.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Copenhagen from September 12.

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s wife, Begona Gomez, along with one of her aides, will testify in court as part of an influence-peddling investigation.

·       Russia, Belarus hold joint military drills called 'Zapad-2025' through September 16.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       European Central Bank Monetary Policy meeting and press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion entitled "Lead, Innovate, Achieve: Championing Sustainability and Social Inclusion for 25 Years" organized by Business in the Community Ireland (BITCI) in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July) 

·       Turkey Retail Sales (July)/ Auto Production & Sales (August) 

·       ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference 

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision 

·       Germany Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Ministerial Meeting takes place in Sochi, Russia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July) 

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)   

Friday, September 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York Fashion Week (Spring-Summer) begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there this year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Canada Building Permits (July)/ Capacity Utilization Q2 

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/12) 

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (August) 

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech 

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2 

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July) 

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       India Inflation Rate (August)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/29)/ Deposit Growth (August/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August) 

·       Germany Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       France Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Turkey Current Account (July) 

·       Romania Current Account (July) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (July) 

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo VIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August)