The Global Week Ahead

Markets Struggle to Understand Where the US-Iran War is Heading, Funeral for Senator Graham Brings World Leaders to Washington, Fujimori Becomes Peru’s President, and a Big Week for Central Banks and Earnings

July 26 - August 2, 2026

Markets are going into this week struggling to understand the trajectory and future implications of the US-Iran War.  Several new and significant turns have taken place in the last few days that are changing the complexion of the war.  The first being Houthi forces in Yemen, at the behest of Iran, attacked two Saudi oil tankers on July 23rd in the Red Sea with a combination of missiles and drones following a declaration they were imposing a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia overall - which followed a Saudi air attack on Sanaa, Yemen, which appeared to be targeting Iranian military advisors and senior Houthi military leaders.  Overall, more than a dozen ships have been attacked in and around the Red Sea/Hormuz corridor since July 6th.   And in the last 24 hours, Houthis have fired missiles at a Saudi Aramco oil refinery inside Saudi Arabia.

The second event happened Saturday (July 25th) and, for the first time, merged the US-Iran War with the Ukraine War when Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against an Iranian cargo ship and an Iranian naval vessel in the Caspian Sea.  Ukrainian officials said the cargo ship was carrying drone and missile components bound for Iran and that Kyiv considers such cargo "legitimate military targets." Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires, calling it a "hostile and criminal act" and that it was done "at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war."   Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has been on calls with Russia's Lavrov and the EU's Kallas about a response, saying it "cannot go unanswered."  This coincided with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remarking that Kyiv had noted Russia was passing on its satellite observations in the Middle East to Iran to enable it to direct strikes ⁠in the region.

If there is any good news coming out of the US-Iran War, it is that there were no attacks launched by either the US or Iran the last two nights.  It appears this is the result of a new round of negotiations between Iran and Oman from which there are reports of “progress.”

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates during the course of the week.  We had several meetings and discussions with regional and local bank presidents in the Midwest this past week.  We came away seeing a significantly heightened sense of anxiety and concern over economic conditions.  The fears are three-fold: 1) the unpredictability of when hostilities might end with Iran which is causing oil prices – especially diesel prices – and spike, 2) Rising risk the Federal Reserve may feel compelled to raise interest rates this week, and 3) President Trump imposing yet another round of tariffs – ranging from 10% to 12.5% - on 60 major trading partners while threatening new 50% tariffs on Canada in retaliation for wildfires burning in Canada.

Washington will see a remarkable and sad event this week: The funeral of Senator Lyndsey Graham (R-SC).  President Trump is scheduled to give the eulogy, and several world leaders are traveling to Washington to attend the service.  Among them are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  Both leaders will meet with Trump separately at the White House.

Zelenskyy is hoping to find a way to revive peace talks with Russia, but for now, Russia does not seem interested in pursuing a new peace track.  Ukrainian long-range drone strikes and missile strikes have been causing considerable damage to Russian military and energy facilities as well as logistical targets (including nine Wildberries facilities – Wildberries is Russia's largest e-commerce platform and considered the Amazon of Russia).

Peru will inaugurate Keiko Fujimori as the country's new president – the country's10th president since 2016 – after winning the race by less than 50,000 votes.  It was Fujimori's fourth presidential bid.  Her win, alongside Abelardo de la Espriella's in Colombia and José Antonio Kast's in Chile, is being read as part of a broader regional shift toward the conservative wing in Latin America — a reversal from the Chávez/Lula-era left tilt.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, this will be a particularly busy week.   Three major central bank meetings are taking place alongside a heavy data release schedule and a cascade of corporate earnings reports.

Breaking it down, in the US, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets this week.  While the Fed is likely to keep rates on hold, there has been a clear rise in market chatter suggesting a possible hike, creating a somewhat jittery market (as alluded to above in our meetings with bank presidents).  We are firmly with the consensus that they will hold.  Also, this week the PCE Index – which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – is out Friday.  It comes after the Conference Board's consumer confidence index on Tuesday, Q2 US GDP release on Thursday, and the PCE on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday on interest rates.  We are in consensus that they are likely to hold rates.   Also out on Friday will be the July Tokyo CPI, June retail sales, labor market data, housing start data, and industrial production figures.  China releases June industrial profits on Monday and July PMIs on Friday. 

Europe also has a busy week.  The Bank of England meets on Thursday to decide on interest rates – also likely to hold.   The German Ifo Survey is out on Monday, and July CPIs for Germany and Spain are out on Thursday and for Italy and France on Friday.  

Finally, the corporate earnings schedule is massive this week, led by several major global tech and financial firms.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will visit the United States, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Germany through Aug. 3rd.

• Today the Maldives celebrate Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

• Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

• Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Liberia celebrates Independence Day.

• The 18th U.S.-Africa Business Summit begins in Mauritius and runs through July 29th.   The theme of the summit is “Advancing New Frontiers in U.S.-Africa Prosperity,” and there is expected to be more than 2,500 participants, including numerous African heads of state, senior US government officials, and CEOs. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 27, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council will meet on the situation in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Trump travels to Michigan to deliver remarks on the economy.

• The US Senate is likely to hold a procedural vote on Director of National Intelligence nominee Jay Clayton.

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is expected to brief senior Trump Administration officials and members of Congress on the latest AI models.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Balance of Trade (June)

• USA Durable Goods Orders (June)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp (June)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (June)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (June)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)

• Canada BoC Market Participants Survey

• EARNINGS: Baker Hughs, Whirlpool, Rambus, Nucor

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his annual State of the Nation address to Congress. Over the past year, public discourse across the country has been consumed by the high-stakes impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, infrastructure corruption scandals, and persistent economic strain.

• Legislative assembly elections begin in Pakistan-controlled Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The economic surveillance unit AMRO (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office) will present its assessment of the region and provide updated growth and inflation forecasts for economies in Southeast Asia as well as China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. It will examine key risks and challenges affecting the regional outlook as the U.S.-Iran war drags on.

• China’s fashion retailer Shein files for its IPO.

• Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

• China Industrial Profits (June)

• Japan Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

• Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU finance ministers meet in Brussels for an ECOFIN budget session.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with State Duma (parliament) members to discuss current legislative work

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (July)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (June)/ Loans to Households (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (July)/ Ifo Current Conditions (July)/ Ifo Expectations (July)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (July)

• Greece Total Credit (June)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (July)

• EARNINGS: LVMH, AstraZeneca, Audi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to an open debate on the Middle East with particular focus on Palestinian affairs.  Deputy Special Coordinator Ramiz Alakbarov is expected to brief the council, with High Representative of the Board of Peace to Gaza Nickolay Mladenov.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Donald Trump is set to give a tribute at the funeral service of US Senator Lindsey Graham in Washington at the National Cathedral.

• President Trump is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington.  Netanyahu is in Washington for the memorial service of the late Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).   Interestingly, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid will also attend the memorial and meet with US members of Congress while in Washington (The Israeli elections are set for October 27th, the first elections since October 7, 2023).

• Trump will then meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House (Zelenskyy is also in Washington for the Graham memorial service).

• Peru’s President-elect Keiko Fujimori is sworn into office after winning June's runoff by fewer than 50,000 votes.  This was Fujimori’s fourth presidential bid. Her inauguration will have a number of right-leaning regional guests including Argentina's President Javier Milei, Chile's President José Antonio Kast, and Panama's President José Raúl Mulino, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. And Spanish King Felipe VI is likely to attend, as well. Argentinian President Javier Milei will continue to Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia for meetings.

• IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will visit Argentina through July 29th.

• South Dakota holds first-ever runoff in Republican gubernatorial primary runoff. The run-off was triggered by a quirky 1985 state law that states that if no candidate in a governor, U.S. Senate, or U.S. House primary clears 35% of the vote, the top two finishers go to a runoff eight weeks later. South Dakota is the only state with this 35% threshold rule.

• Special election in Georgia's 13th Congressional District following the death of Representative David Scott (D).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.

• Brazil Current Account (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (July)

• USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (June)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (June)/ Redbook (July/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Money Supply (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/24)

• Chile Interest Rate Decision

• EARNINGS: Boeing, UPS, Visa, Ford, Coca-Cola ASM, Mondelez, PayPal, Boeing, Corning, JetBlue, Royal Caribbean, Visa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The China International Game Developers Conference (CGDC) begins in Shanghai and runs through July 30th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch in Sydney.

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)

• Tawain Consumer Confidence (July)

• Malaysia PPI (June)

• India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

• EARNINGS: Singapore Air

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Fisheries Ministers through July 29th in Cork, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (July)/ Conventional Gilt

• France Consumer Confidence (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)

• Spain Unemployment Rate/ Retail Sales (June)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

• EARNINGS: Mercedes, GSK, Barclays, Kering, Air Liquide, Orange, Safran, Essilor Luxottica, Man Group, Unilever, LVMH, Michelin

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Israel Unemployment Rate (June)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Business Council holds the 9th Industrialization Week in Durban, South Africa through July 31st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on SCR 2745 sanctions. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies before the Senate Homeland Security & Government Affairs Committee. Committee Chairman Rand Paul subpoenaed Fauci last month after Fauci declined to appear voluntarily. The panel plans to question him about whether he lied to Congress during the pandemic about whether his office funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.  Paul has said he wants to ask whether Fauci funded gain-of-function research while telling Congress he hadn't, why certain records were destroyed, and why he sought a presidential pardon. Paul has also claimed declassified documents show Fauci "personally shaped" what the intelligence community told the public about COVID's origins, with 18 agencies relying on his guidance.  Fauci received a preemptive pardon from President Biden covering "certain" past federal conduct tied to his government role. Commentators note that the pardon doesn't protect him from lying now — any false testimony in this hearing would be new conduct outside the pardon's scope — which is part of why this hearing is being watched closely regarding whether he might invoke the Fifth Amendment. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces its interest rate decision.  Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference at 2:00 p.m. ET.

• Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations released

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/24)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/24)

• Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

• EARNINGS: Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, General Dynamics, Qualcomm, SoFi, Boston Scientific, ADP, Humana, Procter & Gamble, Robinhood, Qualcomm

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s newly created Intelligence Bureau begins operations. Japan is standing up its first centralized intelligence apparatus since World War II, replacing the existing Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office (CIRO) with two new bodies: 1.) The National Intelligence Council (NIC) — the top command-and-decision layer, chaired personally by PM Sanae Takaichi, with 10 members.  Its first meeting is set for July 31st, and 2.) The National Intelligence Bureau (NIB) — the operational arm, tasked with gathering, integrating, and analyzing intelligence across government. It'll be led by Kazuya Hara, a former senior police official currently serving as director of Cabinet intelligence. Budget is roughly $407 million, with hiring focused on cybersecurity specialists, software engineers, and liaison officers. Full operations are expected by December.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has framed the launch of the new intelligence service as "a first step" in a broader effort to unwind postwar constitutional restrictions on Japan's security posture, alongside her push for arms-export liberalization. What is driving all this is growing awareness in Japan of increased (and more aggressive) Chinese, Russian, and North Korean activity  - as recently reported in the New York Times that dozens of Russian intelligence operatives have relocated to Japan in recent years to source and reroute sanctioned weapons components.

• Today, Wallis and Futuna Territory Day is observed, marking the islands’ 1961 transition to a French Overseas Territory.

• Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Australia Inflation Rate (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (June)/ CPI (June)/ Quarterly Inflation Rate/ Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (June)/

• Singapore Import/Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

• Japan BoJ JGB Purchase

• EARNINGS: SK Hynix, Nomura, Arm, CPKC

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Italy Private Sector Credit (June)/ Industrial Sales (May)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (July)

• UK           BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Approvals (June)/ Mortgage Lending (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)

• Greece Unemployment Rate (June)

• Ireland GDP Growth Rate

• Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Corporate Profits (May)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

• Germany Import Prices (June)

• EARNINGS: Aston Martin, Rio Tinto, Airbus, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered, BASF, Eni, L’Oreal, Airbus, Danone, Hermes, Remy Cointreau, Aberdeen, Aston Martin Lagonda, Glencore, Pirelli, Porsche, Electrolux

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Mine ENTRA 2026 Conference begins in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe and runs through July 31st.  The conference brings together major mining, engineering, and transport leaders to discuss critical mineral extraction and export flows.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

• Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council holds the first straw poll on nominees to be the next Secretary-General.  It is a secret straw poll to determine which candidates have enough support to stay in the race, with the fifteen members currently discussing six candidates. In successive rounds, council members will be asked to indicate for each candidate whether they are "encouraged," "discouraged," or express "no opinion," repeating the process until a clear frontrunner emerges.  There are currently four formal candidates: Michelle Bachelet, Rafael Grossi, Rebeca Grynspan, and Macky Sall. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Senate Judiciary Committee votes on Todd Blanche’s nomination to be Attorney General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Net Payrolls (June)

• Mexico GDP Growth Rate/ Fiscal Balance (June)

• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)

• USA PCE Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv/ Personal Income (June)/ Personal Spending (June)/ GDP Price Index Adv/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/25)/ PCE Price Index  (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/18)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ PCE Prices Adv/ GDP Sales Adv/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/25)/ PCE Prices Adv/ Real Consumer Spending Adv/ Real Personal Spending (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/  EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/24)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/29)

• Columbia Business Confidence (June)

• EARNINGS: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Coinbase, Bristol Meyers Squibb, Valero, Altria, Stellantis, Blue Owl, Huntsman, Reddit, Canada Goose, Hershey

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The island nation of Vanuatu celebrates its Independence Day.

• The Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show runs through Aug. 9, with a plug-in hybrid electric car announced earlier this year by China's BYD likely to be the highlight of the show. Auto industry players will be watching for hints on whether BYD will become a serious rival to Japanese automakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Barrenjoey Economics Forum in Sydney.

• South Korea Business Confidence (July)

• Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/25)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)

• Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)

• Australia Building Permits (June)/ Import/Export Prices/ Private House Approvals (June)/ RBA Hunter Speech

• Singapore Unemployment Rate

• Thailand Industrial Production (June)

• EARNINGS: Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic, Keppel

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates. Additionally, the BoE releases its summary of monetary policy and minutes of the committee meeting.

• UK Car Production (June)/

• France GDP Growth Rate/ Household Consumption (June)

• Romania Unemployment Rate (June)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate

• Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

• Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)

• Germany GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

• Italy GDP Growth Rate/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

• Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

• Greece PPI (June)

• Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

• Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

• Russia GDP (June)

• EARNINGS:  Shell, Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic Yum! Brands, TataSteel, ArcelorMittal, Societe Generale, British American Tobacco, BAE Systems, Renault, ING, Lloyds Banking Group, Air France-KLM, Heidelberg Materials, Stellantis, Rolls-Royce, Adidas, Prada, BMW, Renault, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Ferrari, Anglo-America, BAE Systems, Lloyds, London Stock Exchange, Rolls Royce, Prada, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (June)

Friday, July 31, 2026

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Trump will hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David.

• National Governors Association summer meeting begins in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and runs through August 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ PPI (June)

• Canada GDP (May)/ GDP (June)/ Budget Balance (May)/ Budget Balance (April)

• USA Employment Cost - Benefits / Employment Cost - Wages/ Employment Cost Index/ Chicago PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (July)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/31)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/31)

• Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

• Columbia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

• Peru Inflation Rate (July)

• EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, AutoNation, AbbVie, Magna, Moderna

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (July)

• Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ PPI/ Housing Credit (June)/ PPI/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (July)

• South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ Tokyo CPI (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)/ BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS General PMI (July)

• Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Business Confidence

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

• Thailand Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption (June)/ Private Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (July)

• Philippines Business Confidence (June)

• Taiwan DP Growth Rate Adv

• Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate July)

• India Government Budget Value (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)/ M3 Money Supply (July/15)

• EARNINGS: Sony, JERA, Maruti Suzuki

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

•  Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill and BoE Director of Monetary Analysis Fergal Shortall will give a virtual National Agency briefing.

• Ireland Retail Sales (June)

• Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (July)

• Hungary PPI (June)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

• France Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Tourism Revenues/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

• Poland Inflation Rate (July)

• Italy Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

• Spain Current Account (May)

• Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

• Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

• Greece Retail Sales (May)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

• Ukraine Current Account (June)

• EARNINGS: Credit Agricole, EDF, Axa, Engie, Puma, OMV, Pearson, Taylor Wimpey

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa Budget Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Global

• Denmark assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The current interim Venezuelan government will begin formal talks with Venezuela’s US-backed opposition.  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has framed the overall US approach to negotiations and move toward eventual elections as a three-phase plan: political stabilization, economic recovery, transition. However, the devastating late-June earthquakes (5,000+ dead, ~$37bn in damage per UN estimates) have added urgency as reconstruction financing is seen as contingent on political certainty.

• Complicating the situation further is the fact thatthe opposition itself is split — Dinorah Figuera, who headed the 2015 National Assembly, which is the last assembly formally recognized by the US Government, has pointedly distanced herself from Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, who's running a separate, parallel initiative on the transition question.

• Guam holds primary elections for the US House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

• Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate/ PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Switzerland National Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Russia M2 Money Supply (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Benin celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (July)

Sunday, August 2, 2026

Global

•  The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting takes place to evaluate and decide output targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The full provisions of the EU Artificial Intelligence Act come into force.

North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

• July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.

• July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.

·       August 7 – Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is sworn into office.

• August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

• September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

• September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

• September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

• September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

• October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

• October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

• October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

• October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
  November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held.  All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

• November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

• November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

• December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

The Global Week Ahead

The US-Iran Further War Escalates, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet, Britain Gets a New Prime Minister as IMF Issues Warning, Lebanon’s President Travels to Meet Trump, Trump’s Tariffs Set to Expire, and the ECB and PBoC Meet on Interest Rates

July 19 - 26, 2026

Fighting between the US and Iran is likely to further escalate in the coming week as the fragile cease-fire brokered last month is declared “functionally dead." Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Sunday that President Trump’s signature on the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was ‘worthless and unreliable.” And an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran has “no plans for negotiations.”  

US attacks on Iranian military positions and infrastructure significantly ramped up this weekend following an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan, killing three US servicemen, and the killing of a US serviceman in Northern Iraq by an Iranian drone.  Iranian missile and drone strikes have also hit US sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.

At this point, Iran’s rhetorical posture is now uniformly rejectionist across the Supreme Leader's office, Iran's negotiating team, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry — a marked shift from the ambiguity and disunity heard in early July.  The best bet for a return to a ceasefire and a possible return to the negotiating table is via Omani and Pakistani diplomatic efforts.  Still, for now, those efforts are falling on deaf ears in Tehran.

Adding to tensions in the region, the Saudi-Houthi truce that has been in effect since 2022 may now be breaking down, threatening a second war front in the Gulf region.  The truce began unraveling on July 13th when air strikes by Yemen's internationally recognized government (seen as being backed and assisted by Saudi Arabia) blocked an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthis delegation, which included Iranian military experts, from landing in Sanaa, Yemen, which is under control of the Houthis.  The Houthis retaliated by firing missiles at the Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia. 

Markets will also be watching Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's visit to Washington to meet with President Trump.   This is Aoun's first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as President, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009. 

The White House is hoping to bolster Aoun's efforts to help de-escalate Israeli-Hezbollah fighting in southern Lebanon and begin moving on a plan to disarm Hezbollah fighters (something Hezbollah leaders adamantly refuse to do).   The Trump-Aoun meeting could also result in an announcement of new investment funding to help rebuild the beleaguered country following years of war.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers will be gathering in Manila, the Philippines, this week.  Joining them will be US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, Japan, and the UK.   The meeting will focus on hammering out a South China Sea code of conduct to cool tensions among China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. 

But the real action may be on the sidelines as markets will be watching for any bilateral meetings between Rubio and Wang or between Rubio and Lavrov to discuss Ukraine peace talks.  Additionally, Rubio and the foreign ministers of Japan, India, and Australia will hold a Quad meeting to discuss security issues of mutual concern.

In London, Andy Burnham will formally become the UK's new prime minister, the seventh prime minister the country has had since 2016.  Burham is facing a host of economic challenges that were made tougher this week by the IMF warning against raising the top income tax rate, as it assesses that this will further hurt the economy.  Burnham is seeking a way to offset rising energy costs in the wake of the Iran War.

Back here in Washington, the Trump Administration's 10% Section 122 tariffs are set to expire later this week.  The President put these tariffs in place to replace the tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court earlier this year.  Trump cannot renew the tariffs – only the US Congress can do that – but he can effectively do so by raising the rate to 15%, something he has said he intends to do.  The rationale for the higher rates, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative, is that they will be human rights violations in more than 50 countries (see below for the full list of countries targeted).   Also this week, Brazil gets its own, separate Section 301 25% tariffs imposed by President Trump.

Turning the global economic and financial radar screen, the big events this week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on rates and the People's Bank of China's decision on rates.  

While the ECB meeting will dominate European market news, a few other important reports will be released this week.  The UK releases labor figures on Tuesday and June CPI numbers on Wednesday.  And the July ZEW surveys for Germany are out on Tuesday.

In Asia, aside from the PBoC interest rate announcement, Japan's trade balance is released on Wednesday, and the June CPI is released on Friday. 

Here in the US, initial jobless claims are released on Thursday, and flash PMIs and new home sales are released on Friday.  And Canada's June CPI is out on Monday, and May retail sales data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Global

·       The World Cup Championship is played in New Jersey.

·       Talks to develop rules on deep-sea mining continue at the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica through July 24th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines will host the 59th Association of Southeast Asian Nations Foreign Ministers' Meeting and related meetings in Manila through July 24th.

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul begins a two-day visit to Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Community of West African States will hold the bloc's 69th Ordinary Summit of heads of state and government in Sierra Leone.

·       São Tomé and Principe hold presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 20, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on Haiti, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu is set to visit Washington, D.C. (and possibly Miami, Florida) as a preparatory meeting for President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to the US in September.

·       Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday. Outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to give a national speech calling for the mobilization supporters in opposition to the incoming government.

·       The United States and Mexico will hold the third round of bilateral talks on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board is in a Quiet Period in advance of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meetings.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Common (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean  (June)/ CFIB Business Barometer (July)

·       USA CB Leading Index (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Dominos, Zions Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia will host Exercise Pitch Black, military drills involving 20 countries, through Aug. 7.

·       Today is Marine Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/ Loan Prime Rate 5Y (July)

·       Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       India Infrastructure Output (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Andy Burnham is set to be sworn in as the UK’s new Prime Minister, becoming the country’s seventh premier since the 2016 Brexit vote.  He will enter 10 Downing Street after meeting with King Charles.  Burnham takes office just as the IMF issued a warning that the UK cannot boost public spending, something the new Prime Minister to do to deal with the energy shock caused by the Iran War.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Mario Draghi on competitiveness in Brussels.  The meeting is a follow-up to Draghi’s landmark report last year detailing how and why the EU needs to streamline regulation and slash red tape.

·       Romania's Parliament will hold an extraordinary session on legislation tied to the country's EU recovery funds, during which President Nicusor Dan aims to have a new government sworn in.

·       There will be an informal of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Research and Innovation) through July 21st in Brussels.

·        A delegation of EU Members of Parliament from the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will be in Washington D.C. this week to discuss the global economic and the geopolitical outlook, the US political agenda, and developments in the fields of banking and finance. They will meet members of the House of Representatives, officials from the Treasury, the IMF, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodities and Futures Exchange Commission. MEPs will also meet with representatives from think tanks and civil society organizations.

·       The Farnborough International Airshow begins in Hampshire, England, with investors watching for major aircraft deals

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (June)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (June)/Employment Growth (June)/ Industrial Production  (June)/ PPI (June)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (May)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (June)

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index  Q2

·       Jordon Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Commission’s Joint 9th Specialized Technical Committee (STC) on Finance, Monetary Affairs, Economic Planning and Integration begins in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.  Concurrently, the 5th STC on Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals runs through July 24th — this is the AU's main finance-and-trade ministerial track, relevant for AfCFTA implementation and critical minerals positioning.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. This is Aoun’s first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as president, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009.  The White House is hoping to advance the June 26 framework agreement with Israel, with talks focusing on Israeli troop withdrawal and extending Lebanese state authority in the south. The meeting comes one week after the US, Israel, and Lebanese negotiators met in Rome where they agreed on a "pilot zones" arrangement.  The White House is also hoping to publicly give Aoun US backing to strengthen his position at home, where Hezbollah rejects both the framework and disarmament. Aoun himself has called the framework "not ideal" but reflective of the balance of power and says he expects positive outcomes. Markets should watch to see if a withdrawal timeline is set for Hezbollah forces and any significant financing commitments for reconstruction of Lebanon.

·       US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Joint Chiefs of Staff are scheduled to testify before the US Senate Appropriations Committee on the Administration’s requested $80 billion request for Iran War operations.  The hearing will likely spill over into hard questions about war authorization from Congress (or the lack thereof), the status of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of Iran strikes on Gulf States and US military facilities based there.

·       The US Intelligence Committee is expected to vote on the nomination of Jay Clayton to be the next Director of National Intelligence.  A full Senate vote could come by the end of the week.

·       Arizona holds a primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanael Benjamin speak at the OMFIF Conference in London.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (May)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (July)/18/API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (July/17)

·       Columbia Imports/Balance of Trade (May)/ SE Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (June)

·       EARNINGS: Halliburton, Ally, Danaher, Charles Schwab, 3M, General Motors, MSCI, Alaska Air, EQT, CapitalOne, Equifax, Hasbro, Marsh & McClennan, Northrup Grumman, Novartis

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 59th ASEAN foreign ministers begins and runs through July 24th in Manila, the Philippines. The meeting will also see the foreign ministers of the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, Australia, Canada and the U.K in attendance as special guests.  The agenda will cover the South China Sea Code of Conduct, which the Philippines hopes to see finalized but probably will not happen as many countries – especially China – have fundamental differences over what the deal should look like. Beijing has proposed banning joint military drills with countries outside Southeast Asia and restricting oil and gas exploration to intra-regional partnerships — poison pills for the Philippines and Vietnam.  Other agenda items include an informal consultation on a Five-Point Consensus on what to do with Myanmar, and energy security and the Iran War economic impact on the region.  On the sidelines of the meeting, a Quad (US/Japan/Australia/India) foreign ministers meeting with take place from the 20th to the 21st and a subsequent ministerial meeting to take place in Australia.  Markets will be watching closely for any bilateral meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as well as how Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is received at the meeting.

·       The Japanese Diet goes into an extended session in an effort to pass the secondary capital bill which would authorize the building of a backup city capable of assuming core government functions in the event of a major disaster.   The bill is also designed to decentralize economic activity in and around Tokyo.  Opposition parties have attacked the bill as biased toward the cities of Osaka and Ishin.

·       Today is Liberation Day in Guam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q2

·       Tawain Export Orders (June)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the European Parliament from the Foreign Affairs Committee will travel to Beijing and Shanghai to discuss critical issues including Russia’s war against Ukraine, human rights, security challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and China's influence on supply chains. MEPs will raise other matters of common interest including multilateralism, climate diplomacy, and the international governance of AI. They will meet with, among others, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the leadership and foreign affairs committee of the National People's Congress.

·       Today is National Day in Belgium, marking the date in 1831 when Leopold of Saxe-Coburg-Saalfeld took the oath as the first King of the Belgians.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

·       UK Unemployment Rate (May)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Claimant Count Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (June)

·       Greece Current Account (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (May)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Energy Forum begins in Houston, Texas and runs through July 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

 

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international security: Natural resource governance: The foundation of peace, security and prosperity. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A status hearing is scheduled for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in his US narcoterrorism and drug trafficking case.

·       US Section 301 tariffs on Brazil imports set at 25% go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/17)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/17)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/17)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (May)

·       EARNINGS: AT&T, GE Verona, Philip Morris, Pulte Group, Moody’s, Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, Texas Instruments, Kinder Morgan, Crown Castle, CSX,  Chubb, Raymond James, Rogers Communications (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Taiwan is scheduled to travel to Washington, D.C. to meet with US government officials and members of Congress and leading think tanks.  They will be in the US through July 26th.  The delegation is led by Tsai Chi-chang who previously served as Commissioner of the Chinese Professional Baseball League.  He will throw out the first pitch at the New York Mets game against the Los Angeles Dodgers and also meet with Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred in New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (June)

·       Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (June)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/21)

·       Indonesia     Interest Rate Decision/  Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)/ Loan Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Tawain Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates.

·       The European Commission’s provisional deadline for a decision on Paramount Skydance’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery.

·       UK Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI Output (June)/ PPI Input (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)

·       Poland Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ M3 Money Supply  (June)/Retail Sales (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Russia Industrial Production (June)/ PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: Alstom (FRA), AkzoNobel, Dassault Aviation, Moncler, Mulberry, Reach, ServiceNow, Banco Santander, Schindler

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (June)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security [SCR 2788 – peaceful settlement of disputes]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

·       Candidates to be the next UN Secretary-General participate in a town hall at the UN General Assembly in New York.  The candidates include former President of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet Jeria,  Former President of the UN General Assembly María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés (Ecuador), Rafael Mariano Grossi (Argentina):, the current Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis (Costa Rica), Former Vice President of Costa Rica and Secretary-General of the UN Trade and Development, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (Guyana), the current Permanent Representative of Guyana to the UN, and Macky Sall (Senegal), Former President of Senegal. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Office of the US Trade Representative holds a hearing to review which countries will be eligible for the 2027 renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade pact.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (June)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (May)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (July)

·       Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/18)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/11)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/18)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/17)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/22)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: American Airlines, Huntington Bank, Freeport McMaRon, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, CEMEX, Tractor Supply, Intel, Newmont, Sallie Mae

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers is set to take place in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan through July 24th.  The meeting will finalize the agenda and review documents for the upcoming SCO Council of Heads of State Summit taking place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, from August 31st to September 1st.  

·       The Wiki Finance Expo, billed as one of the biggest fintech events in Asia, kicks off in Hong Kong. The two-day conference is expected to attract over 12,000 attendees to hear hundreds of speakers and exhibitors talk about cryptocurrencies and other financial innovations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Australia Employment Change (June)/ Full Time Employment Chg (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Part Time Employment Chg (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (June)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Singapore  Inflation Rate (June)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (June)

·       Tawain Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

·       China FDI (YTD) (June)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU’s extension of the cap on Russian oil prices expires unless renewed.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through July 24th in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (June)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

·       France Business Confidence (July)/ Business Climate Indicator (July)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (July)/ Overnight Lending Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (June)

·       UK Conventional Gilt/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q3/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (July)

·       EARNINGS: Nokia, BNP Paribas, Dassault Systemes, Carrefour, TotalEnergies (FRA), Unicredit (ITALY), Thales, T-Mobile, Roche, Nestlé, Kuehne+Nagel, Morgan Sindell, Heathrow, , Getlink, Centrica, Carrefour

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt will observe Revolution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (May)/Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, July 24, 2026

Global

·       The International Criminal Court members vote on whether to dismiss prosecutor Karim Khan for alleged sexual misconduct, which he denies.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s latest trade tariffs – set at 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (which he implemented after the Supreme Court in February struck down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – are set to expire.  Only the US Congress can extend it. However, the tariffs can effectively be renewed by the President if he puts in new tariffs at a15% rate, which he has previously stated he intends to do.  The US Trade Representative’s Office has been building the rationale for the new, higher rate under a forced-labor rationale, holding hearings earlier this month.  The USTR announced they are focused on 54 countries which include: Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Australia, the Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Egypt, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Peru, the Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Türkiye, UAE, UK, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Six others — Canada, Ecuador, the EU, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan — have import prohibitions in their laws but were found by USTR  to have failed to enforce them

·       The Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercise begins off the coast of Hawaii. The three-month long military training event is the world’s largest maritime warfare exercise involves more than 30 surface ships, five submarines, 140 aircraft and more than 25,000 personnel from 31 different countries.

·       President Donald Trump attends the rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (June)

·       USA Building Permits (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ New Home Sales (June)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (July)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/24)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/24)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (June)/ PPI (June)/ Raw Materials Prices (June)/Wholesale Sales (June)

·       Chile PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: Verizon, Charter Communications, American Express, Verizon, the Hartford Financial, , SLB, NextEra Energy, Booz Allen, HCA Healthcare, CN Railway (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (June)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/18)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/New Car Sales (June)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Index (May)

·       India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/10)/ Deposit Growth (July/10)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)/M3 Money Supply (June/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Scottish city of Edinburgh institutes a visitor’s levy, taxing anyone visiting the city.  City Councilors hope to raise more than £150 million annually from it.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in an on-stage conversation at the MacGill Summer School 2026 in Donegal, Ireland

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (July)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence AUG/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain PPI (June)

·       France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina's President Javier Milei will travel to Brasilia, Brazil to attend the launch of right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign.  Milei then will to Lima, Peru to attend the July 28th inauguration of President-elect Keiko Fujimori.  From there he will go to Ecuador to see President Daniel Noboa going to Colombia to attend the August 7th  inauguration in Colombia of President-elect Abelardo De La Espriella. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Maldives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Russia celebrates Navy Day.  Normally, there is a big parade in St. Petersburg but for the second year in a row, it has been cancelled because Ukrainian drone forces are capable of striking the city and the parade without Russian military forces being able to defend adequately against them.

The 113th Tour de France cycling race concludes today with the 21st and final stage ending up in Paris.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius will host the U.S.-Africa Business Summit through July 29.

·       Today is Independence Day in Liberia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

·       July 28: Keiko Fujimori is inaugurated President of Peru.

·       July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.

·       July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.

·       August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

·       September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

·       September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

·       September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

·       October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

·       October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

·       October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election are held.  All members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

·       November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

·       November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

·       December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

The Global Week Ahead

The US and Iran Negotiations Suspended as Fighting Resumes, Japan’s Prime Minister Goes to India, the First Tri-Lateral USMC Negotiations Begin, and Central Bankers Gather in Portugal

June 28 - July 5, 2026

The Iran War appears to be back on as US and Iranian military action escalated in the last two days following Iran’s attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. US Forces conducted strikes against Iranian missile, drone, and radar facilities following an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, shattering the Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 18th.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded to the US attack with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. The IRGC has now threatened to halt “all ongoing diplomatic processes,” hardening Tehran’s posture and likely seeking to recalibrate its negotiating leverage. Technical negotiations were expected to begin this week in Luzerne, Switzerland, after last week’s signing of a memorandum of understanding, but appear to have been canceled.

Additionally, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will exercise sole management and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz for the next 30 days before allowing full traffic to resume. What happens next is anyone’s guess, as Oman and Qatar are trying to de-escalate the fighting and get the negotiations back on track. We see Iran’s strike on the ship as strangely self-defeating, as Iran was beginning to benefit from the US lifting sanctions on Iran’s selling and shipping oil.

All this comes as Israel and Lebanon implement a new framework agreement (along with the US) establishing the Military Coordination Group for Lebanon (MCG4L). The framework requires the Israeli Defense Forces to make a partial pullback from “pilot zones” in Lebanon - sequenced Israeli withdrawals linked to the Lebanese Army deploying in their place, along with Hezbollah disarming.

However, Hezbollah has rejected the deal as “null and void. They have already begun blocking streets in southern Beirut with burning tires. We are watching to see if the Israeli pilot zone withdrawals trigger Hezbollah military responses and attacks on Israeli forces and Israel itself. Additionally, there is concern over whether the Lebanese Army deployment will proceed on schedule.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is making an important trip to India this week to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the 16th annual leaders’ summit. Takaichi is seeking to build stronger cooperation between the two countries on a host of economic security issues, including critical mineral and energy supplies. Perhaps more importantly, Takaichi is seeking to strengthen defense cooperation between the two nations to deter potential Chinese threats to key shipping straits critical to both India and Japan.

Closer to home, the US, Mexico, and Canada will meet virtually on July 1st for the first time to conduct a trilateral meeting on the USMCA. Without an agreement, the USMCA would go into annual reviews. This is the first mandatory joint review under USMCA’s sunset/review provision—a mechanism without precedent in prior U.S. trade agreements. A successful joint review is critical in order to shore up confidence in the agreement and the broader trilateral economic relationship. will use the session to establish working groups and timelines for deeper negotiations through the end of 2026.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be listening carefully to the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal. This will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s first public event internationally and second overall public appearance.

In the US, labor market data will be the main focus of markets this week. The May JOLTS report is out Tuesday, the June ADP on Wednesday, and the US federal jobs report on Thursday. Also out this week is the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index and the ISM manufacturing index.

In Asia this week, China reports June PMIs on Tuesday and Japan releases May retail sales on Monday and industrial production on Tuesday.

And in Europe this week, the Eurozone’s CPI flash estimate is out on Tuesday (the headline indicator most watched by the ECB for monetary policy decisions), and the June manufacturing PMIs are out on Wednesday. Germany, France, and Italy release CPI data on Tuesday. The UK publishes its bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys on Thursday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, June 28, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The great comic genius Mel Brooks turns 100 years old. And he has a new movie coming out in 2027: Spaceballs: the New One

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA Fed Barkin Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· New Caledonia holds parliamentary elections.

· Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, will hold a gubernatorial election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)

· Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s Parliamentary Summit is held in Istanbul, Turkey.

· Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

· The United Russia Party held its annual convention. President Vladimir Putin wished the party good luck in the election, calling the electoral process a test of strength for the political system. During the congress, party leader Dmitry Medvedev proposed including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin in the federal top five candidates. Also happening today, the Rodina party’s election convention took place, at which the party list was approved, comprising 15 people headed by Aleksey Zhuravlyov, as well as candidates for single-mandate constituencies.

· Likely incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is scheduled to give a major economic speech in Manchester outlining his agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

The new Israel-Lebanon Framework Deal which was signed on June 26th goes into effect. The deal is aimed at paving the way for an eventual peace deal between the two long-time Middle East adversaries. The agreement includes a pilot effort in which Lebanese soldiers take control of some small areas currently held by Israeli troops, as well as a process aimed at disarming the Hezbollah terror group. However, Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire deal, saying it calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon as a precondition. The implementation of the framework is beginning this week with initial IDF withdrawals from pilot zones north and south of the Litani River.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 29, 2026

Global

· The United Nations 4th Counter-Terrorism Week takes place in New York through July 2nd. ministers and heads of national counter-terrorism agencies, as well as regional organizations, United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Coordination Compact entities, civil society organizations, victims of terrorism, women- and youth-led organizations, academia and the private sector.

· In Bangkok, Thailand, the 7th Global Conference on Climate and SDG Synergies will take place from 29-30 June. The event is co-organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in partnership with the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

· The International Energy Agency holds its 11th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency in Montreal, Canada through June 30th.

· The UN Security Council will meet to discuss the situation in the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court is expected to issue the final decisions of its term on cases including whether President Donald Trump can restrict birthright citizenship and whether he can oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Decisions on Monday and potentially another day this week.

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is set to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. They will discuss the situation in the Middle East and prep for the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey July 7th.

· The US Senate is out of session for a two-week break. The US House of Representatives is in session until Thursday and out of session the following week.

· The 2026 Mercosur Presidential Summit and associated meetings of the Common Market Council will be held in Asunción, Paraguay through July 30th. The summit focuses on advancing the bloc’s external trade agenda and follows the historic signing of the sweeping EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement in January. The main focus will be on the internal distribution of export quotas from the historic EU-Mercosur trade agreement. According to recent statements from Uruguay’s Foreign Minister Mario Lubetkin, quota distribution among member states will dominate much of the debate. The EU trade deal entered provisional force on May 1, 2026, after more than 25 years of negotiations, with tariff reductions covering 95% of Mercosur products and 91% of EU products.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Bank Lending (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ IGP-M Inflation (June)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

· Argentina Economic Activity ABR

· EARNINGS: AeroVironment

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea’s presidential office will announce three “megaprojects” expected to involve massive investment in a new semiconductor production cluster in the country’s southwest. Local media have reported that Samsung Group will be a major investor, as the tech giant seeks to expand production to ride the chip boom.

· The Japanese Diet will begin considering legislation that would create a second capital. The legislation was introduced by Japan’s ruling LDP and Japan Innovation Party. The aim is to have a capital that would back up Tokyo’s core functions during disasters or emergencies and decentralize power. The bill supports JIP’s Osaka-focused restructuring agenda, while a separate proposal would cut 45 proportional representation seats if lawmakers fail to agree on reductions within a year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Retail Sales (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/Construction Orders (May)

· Tawain Consumer Confidence (June)

· Malaysia PPI (May)

· India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)

· Australia RBA Kent Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao visits Brussels through June 30th for high-level talks with EU officials on China-EU trade relations, market access, and ongoing tariff disputes.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Luxembourg.Ministers will discuss cyber violence against girls, housing and demographics, and fair labor mobility.

· The Athens Defense Conference begins and runs through June 30.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 begins in Sintra, Portugal and runs through July 1st. The event brings together both central banker from around the world and will be the first time new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak publicly (Wednesday). For a full list of attendees, click HERE. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will open the event with a welcoming speech.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill: Panel at Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan monetary policy dialogue in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (May)/ Loans to Households (May)/M3 Money Supply (May)/ Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)/Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (June)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (May)/ Mortgage Approvals (May)/ Mortgage Lending (May)/ M4 Money Supply (May)/ Net Lending to Individuals (May)/ BoE Pill Speech

· Greece Total Credit (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Global

· US and Iran technical negotiations are scheduled to resume in Lucerne, Switzerland. However, the meetings may be cancelled due to renewed military strikes by Iran and the US.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Election primaries are scheduled to be held in Colorado and Arkansas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ PPI (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

· Canada GDP (April)/ GDP (May)

· Costa Rica Current Account Q1

· Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· USA S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/House Price Index (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ Chicago PMI (June)/ JOLTs Job Openings (May)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (May)/ Redbook (June/27)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat (June)/ API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (June/26)

· Columbia Business Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

· Paraguay Current Account Q1

· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

· EARNINGS: Nike, Constellation Brands, Progress Software

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (June)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ PPI (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2

· Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes released/Australia Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/NBS General PMI (June)

· Thailand Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption (May)/ Private Investment (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)

· India Government Budget Value (May)/ External Debt Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets her Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Baku.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (June)/ Current Account Q1/Nationwide Housing Prices (June)/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/

· Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/Unemployed Persons (June)/ Unemployment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (June)/Bavaria CPI (June)/ Brandenburg CPI (June)/ Hesse CPI (June)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (June)/ Saxony CPI (June)/Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (May)/ PPI (May)

· Spain Current Account (April)

· France Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Household Consumption (May)/ PPI (May)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

· Turkey Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Imports/Exports (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Italy PPI (May)

· Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Ukraine Current Account (May)

· EARNINGS: Collins Foods, Sainsbury’s

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Gaza Board of Peace meets in Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon Industrial Production (April)

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Congo, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Global

· The Democratic Republic of Congo assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

· The OECD hosts the Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum in Paris, Francie through July 2nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the official deadline for the US, Mexico and Canada to decide whether to extend the USMCA trade agreement for another 16 years (and which will not be met as negotiations are ongoing). However, trade representatives from all three countries will hold their first trilateral talks, and the deal will enter into a cycle of yearly reviews until an agreement is reached.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will undertake an official visit to Canada through July 4.

· Today is Canada Day, commemorating the anniversary of the Constitution Act of 1867. Financial markets and banks are closed.

· St. Lucia assumes the chairmanship of CARICOM (Caribbean Community).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh takes part in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal.

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (June)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (June/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/26)/ ADP Employment Change (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (June)/ Construction Spending (May)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (June)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (June/26)

· Mexico Business Confidence (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (May)/ Current Account Q1

· Peru Inflation Rate (June)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

· Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speech

· EARNINGS: Constellation Brands, General Mills, FactSet Research Systems, MSC Industrial Direct, UniFirst, National Beverage, Greenbrier Companies

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will make her first visit to India since taking office last year. The trip comes as Japanese businesses increase their investments in India, and more than 50 companies, including Suzuki Motor, Itochu and Toyota Tsusho, will accompany the prime minister. he two looking to deepen economic and security ties with China in mind. Takaichi was initially set to visit the northeastern state of Assam, but now she will only visit New Delhi due to time constraints.

· Hong Kong observes the Special Administrative Region Establishment day, marking the day I 1997 when the UK transferred power over Hong Kong to China.

· Today is the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.

· The Japanese government will cut passport application fees for its citizens by up to half. Meanwhile, it will raise visa issuance fees for foreign visitors for the first time in about 50 years. Fees for single-entry visas will increase from 3,000 yen ($18) to 15,000 yen, and for multiple-entry visas, from 6,000 yen to 30,000 yen. The departure tax, applied to both Japanese and foreign nationals, will also be raised from 1,000 yen to 3,000 yen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (June)/ Ai Group Construction Index (June)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (June)/ Commodity Prices (June)

· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q2/ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q2/ Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q2/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Bank Lending (May)

· Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ireland takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union until the end of the year.

· The European Commission is scheduled to present “Defense Single Market: EU Technological Basi Fit for Future” – the strategic plan creating a foundation for a unified defense market. The plan is expected to remove fragmented barriers, mitigate external supply-chain dependencies, and boost cross-border industrial cooperation across member states.

· The European Parliament’s Industry, Research and Energy Committee will vote on a proposal to accelerate permit-granting procedures for energy infrastructure projects, such as transmission and distribution grids, and storage and recharging stations, as well as renewable energy projects. The aim is to help lower electricity prices and help the EU transition towards a more sustainable and decarbonized energy system.

· The European Parliament publishes the latest edition of Eurobarometer. The survey covers EU citizens’ feelings about the future and their expectations of the EU, as well as a range of issues, including: the role of the EU in the current global context and in protecting Europeans; key citizen priorities and values; and how citizens view the European Parliament, the EU and EU membership

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (May)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Inflation Rate Flash (June)/ CPI Flash (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking/ ECB Vujčić Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

· Russia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ Corporate Profits (April)/ Real Wage Growth (April)/ Retail Sales (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Bank Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Burundi celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Ghana celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q2/ Budget Balance (May)/ABSA Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (June)

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· France and its G7 partners will convene a regional security conference in Martinique in July 2026, marking a major step forward in international coordination. The conference will assemble nations from across the Caribbean and G7 partners to establish a maritime task force and step up the fight against drug trafficking and transnational crime.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· U.S. Bond Markets will close early in advance of the Independence Day holiday.

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks in moderated discussion at Banco de España conference Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, Santander, Spain.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/27)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Average Weekly Hours (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/20)/ Government Payrolls (June)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (June/27)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (June)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (June)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (June)/ Factory Orders (May)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/26)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/02)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/02)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/03)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/03)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/01)/ Total Vehicle Sales (June)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

· EARNNGS: Levi’s, Lindsay

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (May)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (June)

· Japan Monetary Base/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/27)

· Australia Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

· Thailand Business Confidence (June)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (May)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Court of Justice is expected to rule on Alphabet unit Google’s fight against a record fine levied by EU antitrust regulators eight years ago for using its Android mobile operating system to block rivals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give an introductory statement at the ECON hearing of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a speech and participate in a panel discussion “The Role of Central Banks in the Fight Against Climate Change: Current State and Outlook” at 7th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists (WCERE) in Lisbon, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a discussion followed by a moderated discussion at Generali Executive Series in Milan, Italy.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann participates in a fireside chat at the Natixis CIB Conference on Private Debt in London.

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (June)

· Spain New Car Sales (June)/ Bonos y Obligaciones Auction

· Italy New Car Registrations (June)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Romania PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (June)

· France Budget Balance (May)

· Spain Unemployment Change (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/26)

· EARNINGS: Baltic Classifieds Group, Currys, FastPartner

· Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria holds national assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (June)

Friday, July 3, 2026

Global

· World FAO Food Price Index (June)

· The United Nations is closed today for an official holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (June)

· Columbia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)

· Australia S&P Global Composite PMI (June)

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Japan S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (June)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (June)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Belarus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion with António Costa at 26th Les Rencontres Économiques d’Aix-en-Provence 2026 “Navigating a World of Uncertainty” in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on a panel at Les Rencontres Economiques Conference entitled ‘Fiscal and monetary policy: An impossible coordination?’ in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (June)

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

· France New Car Registrations (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)

· Russia GDP (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)

· Spain Industrial Production (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (May)/

· UK DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (June)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran will hold the official funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamani in Tehran. He was killed by Israeli airstrikes at the beginning of the Iran War. His body will lie in state at the Iman Khomeini Prayer Hall at the Grand Mosalla in Tehran through July 5th. On July 6th, there will be a public funeral procession through the streets of Tehran. Then his body will be transferred to the holy city of Qom on July 7th. On July 8th, there will be a transnational symbolic procession in the Iraqi holy cities of Najaf and Karbala. His body will then be transferred on July 9th back to Iran for burial at the Iman Reza Shrine in Mashad.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (April)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (June)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence and the establishment of the United States of America.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Republic Day in the Philippines, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Slovakia holds a referendum on whether to cancel life payments for leaders after their terms expire.

· The 33rd Annual Session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly will take place from 4 to 8 July 2026 at the World Forum Convention Center in The Hague, Netherlands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Liberation Day in Rwanda, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Global

· The OPEC+ meeting will be held virtually. The group is expected to agree to another 411,000 b/d crude quota increase for August at the meeting, as it capitalizes on seasonal demand to bring barrels back to market.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The CARICOM Heads of Government Meeting takes place in Saint Lucia.

· Venezuela celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when in 1811 Spanish rule was thrown off.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Valiant Shield, a joint-military exercise of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, takes place in Guam.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· July 7 – 8: The NATO Summit will be held in Ankara, Turkey.

· July 23: The 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum takes place in Manila, the Philippines.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

The Global Week Ahead

June 14 - 21, 2026

The G7 Summit and a Possible Iran Peace Deal Will Dominate the Week, UK Prime Minister Starmer Faces the Possible End as Prime Minister, and the U.S., UK, Japan, and Australian Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

It appears a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is imminent.  Both President Trump and various Iranian leaders have indicated they are closer than ever to striking a deal, or at least to a substantially more robust, longer-term cease-fire.  President Trump has told reporters he expects the deal to be signed “in the next few hours.” However, it appears another flare-up between Israeli forces and Hezbollah may delay or even derail the deal.  We will have more on the deal if and when it is signed.

This all comes as the G7 Leaders’ Summit begins on Monday and runs through Wednesday in Evian, France.  Both the Iran situation and the Ukraine War will dominate leaders' discussions.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will join for part of the meetings.  The UK, France, and Germany have formulated a five-point peace framework they want President Trump to endorse, which would create a quadripartite negotiation format– Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., and the EU at the table working toward a deal.  President Trump has not indicated whether he will support the plan.

The talks come as Russia finds itself increasingly stressed domestically in the face of Ukraine’s surging military on the front lines and via long-range drone strikes. Ukrainian drone strikes have forced nearly all major oil refineries in central Russia to either suspend operations or reduce fuel production. Russia imposed a temporary ban on gasoline exports from April 1st through the end of July.

Moscow has also prohibited jet fuel exports through November 30.  Russian oil refining volumes have fallen at least 10% over several months in 2026, with diesel production down roughly 10% in May alone.  

Reuters estimated 700,000 barrels per day of refining capacity at 16 refineries offline — roughly double the 2025 figure — with 35 primary distillation units shut. Russian refining is running at 4.58 mbpd in May 2026, 13% below May 2025.

 Additionally, G7 leaders are expected to discuss the U.S.’s 15% universal tariffs, which expire on July 24th, and what comes next. There is hope that there will be sideline discussions between President Trump and leaders from Japan and South Korea to advance efforts to hammer out final trade deals (President Lee Jae-myung is an invited guest – South Korea is not a member of the G7). 

 However, this depends on whether President Trump shows up to the summit: There is a risk that he will cancel his attendance to focus on finalizing the Iran trade deal.  

Also, this week, amid the G7 meeting, the EU Parliament is expected to approve the EU-U.S. Trade Agreement.   It has been a bumpy path to a final deal, with the EU Parliament suspending work on it after President Trump raised Greenland as a bargaining chip.  

The UK is facing an extraordinary leadership challenge this week.  The Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, is running in a by-election this week for a seat in parliament.  If elected – and Burnham, a widely popular member of the Labour Party – is widely expected to win – he will immediately challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labor Party. Burnham’s challenge is likely to ignite weeks of campaigning and likely other challengers to Starmer joining in, all of which suggest Starmer’s tenure as Prime Minister is coming to an end.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, central bank interest rate action is the key theme for markets.  The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia are all meeting.

In the U.S., Kevin Warsh will be chairing his first Open Market Meeting as Fed Chair.  How the committee – and Warsh – see growing inflation risk will be paramount. It is likely the Fed will hold interest rates.  Also in the U.S., this week is a shortened week with the Juneteenth holiday on Friday.  There are several important economic reports out this week, including May retail sales on Wednesday and several housing indicators. 

In Europe, the Bank of England meets on Thursday and is likely to hold rates steady. This comes after the UK’s May CPI is released on Wednesday, labor market data on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday.   Germany’s June ZEW Survey is out Tuesday, and PPI is out on Friday.  

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Tuesday.  The BoJ is expected to raise rates 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level it has been at in 31 years.  Markets will also get the May CPI on Friday.  China publishes industrial production numbers and April’s retail sales figures on Tuesday.   And the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to hold rates steady. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, June 14, 2026 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump turns 80 years old.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London.  She will then travel to Italy to meet Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and France for the G7 Leaders’ Summit.   The agenda for all three stops is the same: the joint next-generation fighter jet development project (GCAP), cybersecurity, and outer space cooperation are the bilateral priorities with both the UK and Italy. At the G7 level, Japan is positioning itself as Asia's voice on energy security — given that the Strait of Hormuz closure has hit Asia hardest — and is pushing for G7 coordination on stabilizing crude oil markets, critical minerals supply chains, and Ukraine support. 

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yik travels to Mongolia for meetings through June 15th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland holds a referendum on a proposal to limit immigration Ater the country reaches 10 million.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will travel to Belarus to meet with President Lukasheno.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 15, 2026

Global

·       The 52nd G7 Summit begins in Evian, France and runs through June 17th.  Leaders are expected to discuss a number of issues ranging from overall geopolitical challenges, the situation in Ukraine and the Middle east, the state of international partnerships, and the future of AI.  Our view is the summit is best understood not as a policy-making event but as a real-time pressure test of Western cohesion on three simultaneous shocks — energy/Iran, trade architecture, and critical minerals. The highest-value watch item is whether the Iran deal actually closes in the margins of the summit, which would have immediate downstream effects on energy prices, shipping costs, and Gulf state positioning. The Trump tariff issue is the second-order issue to track: the summit is likely to be used to telegraph what replaces the U.S.’ Section 122 authority, and alignment between the U.S. and G7 partners on Section 301 successor mechanisms would be a meaningful signal for industrial and trade-exposed portfolios. The absence of a joint communiqué for a second straight year should register as a structural data point — it is not a surprise, but a confirmation that the old G7 consensus architecture is being replaced by something more transactional and bilateral.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Congress is out of session this week and return to work on June 22nd.

·       The Canadian Parliament is in session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Housing Starts (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (April)/ Wholesale Sales (April)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production(May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (June)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Myanmar's president, Min Aung Hlaing, is due to arrive in China for a state visit, scheduled through Friday. The president is fresh off a trip to India, which was his first foreign visit since he switched from being leader of Myanmar's military regime. Chinese President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, has engaged in a flurry of diplomacy in recent weeks, hosting U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin along with visiting North Korea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q2/ Composite NZ PCI (May)/ Services NZ PSI (May)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending  (May)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       India WPI Food Index (May)/ WPI Fuel (May)/ WPI Inflation (May)/ WPI Manufacturing  (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Nidec (Japan)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha via videoconference.  The Council will also discuss the situation in the Middle East in light of the latest developments of the war in Iran and its effects across the region. Ministers will further exchange on the critical situation in Lebanon amid ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as on Gaza and the West Bank.  Ministers will then turn to discuss the state of play between the EU and China.

·       The Second Accession Conference with Ukraine takes places in Luxembourg.  It brings Ukraine a step closer to EU membership. The meeting will serve to open negotiations on cluster 1: fundamentals. This cluster covers notably the rule of law and fundamental rights, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform, and economic criteria, and includes the following negotiating chapters: Chapter 23 – Judiciary and fundamental rights, Chapter 24 – Justice, freedom and security, Chapter 5 – Public procurement, Chapter 18 – Statistics, and Chapter 32 – Financial control.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan for meetings in Moscow.

·       The 27th Accession Conference with Montenegro takes place in Luxembourg. The meeting will serve to provisionally close negotiations on chapters 2 (free movement of workers) and 28 (consumer and health protection).

·       The Second Accession Conference with the Republic of Moldova takes place in Luxembourg. The meeting will serve to open negotiations on cluster 1: fundamentals. This cluster covers notably the rule of law and fundamental rights, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform, and economic criteria, and includes the following negotiating chapters: Chapter 23 – Judiciary and fundamental rights, Chapter 24 – Justice, freedom and security, Chapter 5 – Public procurement, Chapter 18 – Statistics, and Chapter 32 – Financial control

·       The EU-Egypt Association Council takes place in Luxembourg. The meeting will be co-chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt, Badr Abdelatty, who will be leading the Egyptian delegation. Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica, will represent the European Commission.  Building on the first EU-Egypt summit held in October 2025, the Association Council will review the implementation of the EU-Egypt Strategic and Comprehensive Partnership, launched in March 2024, and discuss avenues for further strengthening bilateral cooperation. The parties are expected to take stock of progress across the Partnership's six pillars, namely political relations, economic stability, trade and investment, migration and mobility, security, and demography and human capital. The exchange will also provide an opportunity to discuss global issues of common interest and the regional situation, including developments in the Middle East and North Africa region and their implications for EU-Egypt cooperation.

·        

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded opening keynote speech at the ECB conference "Money in transition: digitalization and innovation in payments" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs session 1 "Fostering digital finance in Europe" at ECB conference "Money in transition: digitalization and innovation in payments" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives a keynote speech at Euro Finance Summit in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices  (May)

·       Romania Industrial Production  (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Slovakia  Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (April)/ Budget Balance (May)

·       Poland Inflation Rate  (May)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (April)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Greece Construction Output  Q1

·       Serbia Building Permits (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

·       Israel Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit continues in Evian, France.

·       https://www.worldbank.org/en/events/2026/06/16/abcde-2026The World Bank’s Annual Conference on Development Economics begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through June 17th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. and Mexico hold a second round of USMCA negotiations in Washington, D.C.  The meeting will be focused on agricultural issues.

·       U.S. primary elections are held in Oklahoma, with runoff votes in Alabama and Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ IGP-10 Inflation (June)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/  Building Permits Prel (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Import/Export Prices (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (June)/ Redbook (June/13)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/12)

·       Columbia Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (April)

·       EARNINGS: La-Z Boy

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import/Export Prices (May)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (May)

·       The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates. The BoJ is expected to raise the policy rate to 1%, the highest level in 31 years.

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       The Reserve bank of Australia meets on interest rates.

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

·       China House Price Index  (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The European Parliament is expected to give their final approval to EU-US trade deal. The proposals, already agreed by Parliament and Council negotiators, would eliminate most tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods from the US. At the same time, negotiators agreed on several elements strengthening the Commission’s original proposal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers will be invited to approve the Council’s negotiating position on the proposed directive regarding the placing on the market of genetically modified micro-organisms (GMMs) and the processing of organs.  Ministers will also hold a policy debate on the proposed regulation establishing a framework of measures to strengthen the EU’s biotechnology and biomanufacturing sectors, particularly in the area of health. The regulation, which forms part of the European Biotech Act I, was announced on 16 December 2025 as part of the Commission’s Health Package.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers responsible for European affairs will meet in Luxembourg to continue preparations for the June European Council meeting by discussing draft conclusions.  The Council will hold a policy debate on a draft negotiating box regarding the new MFF 2028-2034. Ministers will be also invited to adopt partial general approaches on the three main components of the new MFF, namely the:

o   regulation establishing the European Fund for economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture and rural, fisheries and maritime, prosperity and security (NRPP regulation)

o   regulation on establishing the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), including the specific program for defense research and innovation activities

o   regulation establishing the Global Europe instrument

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a roundtable discussion at DigitalEurope Finance Executive Council Summer Summit 2026 in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a stage conversation at Reuters NEXT Europe 2026 in London.

·       Turkey Retail Sales (April)

·       Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ ZEW Current Conditions (June)

·       Poland  Inflation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ Labour Cost Index Q1/ Wage Growth Q1

·       Belarus Industrial Production (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordon Industrial Production  (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Bank Institute's Africa Growth and Opportunity: Research in Action Conference is being in Palermo, Italy through June 17th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit concludes in Evian, France.

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings on interest rates, the first chaired by newly sworn-in Chair Kevin Warsh. He will hold his first press conference at 2:00 p.m.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/12)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (June/12)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/12)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (June/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/12)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Retail Sales Control Group (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos  (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Inventories (April)/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (April)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (June/12)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (May)

·       Columbia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       EARNINGS: CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s top financial regulators gather in Shanghai alongside global central bankers and finance executives for the Lujiazui Forum, which runs through June 18th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Current Account Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June)/16

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (June)/ Import/Export/Balance of Trade (May)/ Machinery Orders (April)

·       Singapore Balance of Trade (May)/ Non-Oil Exports (May)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (May)/ RBA Jones Speech/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (April)

·       China FDI (YTD) (May)

·       India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-ASEAN summit begins in Kazan, Russia, and through June 18th.  President Vladimir Putin expected to meet with various
heads of states.

·       VivaTech 2026, Europe’s biggest technology event, begins in Paris, France.

·       Today is Iceland Independence Day, a national holiday.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the XIX Cotec Europe Summit "Rethinking work in the age of AI: Transformation, Opportunity, Governance" in Venice, Italy

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at the 2026 Salzburg Global Finance Forum in Salzburg, Austria.  He later participates on a panel discussing the future of money.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpens speaks at European Economics & Financial Center in Brussels.

·       Turkey Auto Production  (May)/ Auto Sales (May)

·       UK Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI  Output (May)/ PPI Input/Output (May)/ Retail Price Index  (May)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (April)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI (May)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)/ Residential Property Prices (April)

·       Serbia Current Account (April)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

·       EARNINGS: AO World

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Obama Presidential Center dedication ceremony. The campus and museum, on the south side of Chicago, open to the public on Friday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q1/ Aggregate Demand Q1/ Private Spending Q1/

·       Canada PPI (May)/ Raw Materials Prices (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (June/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/06)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (June/13)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (June)/ Philly Fed Employment (June)/ Philly Fed New Orders (June)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (June)/ CB Leading Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/12)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (June/18)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/18)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/19)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/19)/         Net Long-term TIC Flows (April)/ Overall Net Capital Flows(April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/17)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Leading Indicator (May)

·       Columbia ISE Economic Activity (April)

·       EARNINGS:  Accenture, Kroger, Empire Company (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea’s $350 billion Korea-US Strategic Investment Corporation will be launched as part of the recently passed Special Act on Investment in the U.S.

·       Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/13)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (June)/ Lending Facility Rate (June)/ Loan Growth (May)/

·       Tawain M2 Money Supply May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       A U.K. parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, Greater Manchester will be held.  Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is expected to win  and immediately challenge Prime Minister Kier Starmer for the Prime Minister – and is widely expected to succeed in the effort.

·       The European Council meets through June 19th in Brussels.  EU leaders are expected to focus mostly on the impact of the Iran War on Europe and Ukraine’s accession process to joining the EU.

·       NATO Defense Ministers meet in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a roundtable discussion at IE University event "Climate Transition and Competitiveness: Ambition, Advantages and Trade-offs" in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an online speech at a policy breakfast "L'EURO DIGITALE. Le implicazioni per il sistema monetario europeo e le dinamiche nazionali" organized by Istituto per la Competitività in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a session entitled "Session on monetary policymaking under uncertainty" at Deutsche Bank Forum in London.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at payments conference in Eltville, Germany.

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production  (May)

·       Belarus GDP  (May)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       The Bank of England will meet on interest rate policy.  The BoE is expected to hold rates steady.

·       UK Unemployment Rate (April)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (April)/Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (May)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Euro Area Current Account (April)/ Current Account s.a (April)/ Construction Output  (April)

·       Italy Current Account (April)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/12

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Whitbread, Tesco, FirstGroup, Bulkers

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate  (May)

·       South Africa Building Permits (April)

Friday, June 19, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. observes the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday.  Financial markets, banks, and the federal government are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (June)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/

·       Argentina Retail Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong and Taiwan observe Dragon Boat Festival.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea  PPI (May)

·       New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/12)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate  (May)/Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan Inflation Rate  (May)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy  (May)/ Inflation Rate  (May)/ BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel at the Natixis International SSA Conference in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the 80th anniversary of the Italian Constitution organized by Università di Roma Sapienza in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at  the Annual Conference of the Spanish Centre for Sustainable and Responsible Finance (FINRESP) in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a policy conversation with Gita Gopinath at PSE-CEPR Policy Forum in Paris, France.

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (May)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (May)

·       Germany PPI (May)

·       Turkey  Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/

·       Poland Industrial Production (May)

·       Greece Current Account (April)

·       Italy Construction Output (April)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ M2 Money Supply (May)

·       Slovakia Current Account (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (June)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PP  (May)

Saturday, June 20, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Columbia Presidential Elections - 2nd Round

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 21, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia holds the 2nd round of their presidential elections.  In the first round, right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella captured 44% of the vote, ahead of left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda of the ruling Historic Pact with 41%.  The two candidates sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum with vastly different visions — particularly on security and the role of the state. De la Espriella is running as a hardline anti-crime outsider; Cepeda is pitching himself as the continuation of outgoing President Petro's progressive agenda. As of today, prediction markets are assigning roughly an 88% probability to De la Espriella winning. 

·       The final round of the U.S. Open is played at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southhampton, New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

·       June 23 – The World Economic Forum’s New Champions meeting in Dalian, China.

·       July 7 – 8: The NATO Summit will be held in Ankara, Turkey.

·       September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

The Global Week Ahead

US – Iran Negotiations Drag On, Venezuelan President and US Secretary of State Discuss Oil With India, Colombia Holds Presidential Elections, and Markets Await Inflation Reports

May 24 - 31, 2026

While Washington is quiet this weekend in honor of Memorial Day, negotiations between the US and Iran continue, but seemingly in fits and starts.  Both Iranian and US media reports suggested Friday that significant progress had been made toward finalizing a peace deal. 

But as details began to leak out, President Trump faced sharp criticism from Republican lawmakers, including Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who said a 60-day extension of the ceasefire “would be a disaster.”  President Trump publicly fired back at them, but it appears he also started adjusting the draft terms of the deal being hammered out with Iran.  Accords as part of the ultimate deal.  And he seemed to even suggest in a Truth Social post that he would be open to Iran signing onto the Accords (which seems highly unlikely as official Iranian policy has long called for the outright eradication of Israel).

It is understood that many of those Arab countries have asked Trump to refrain from any military attacks this week as the Hajj is underway through May 29th with large numbers of Muslim pilgrims traveling in the region.  Meanwhile, Iranian officials said no deal was “imminent,” but conceded that progress had been made.  

Additionally, the US will host the next round of Israeli–Lebanese peace talks in Washington later this week.  However, those talks may be canceled – and also impact the US-Iranian talks – after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to step up attacks on Hezbollah forces after right-wing members of his cabinet demanded a full-scale resumption of Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. 

In India this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US) meetings to discuss mutual defense issues.  While Rubio is there, it is expected acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriquez will travel to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss oil sales, a move strongly supported by the US.  Iran is highly dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East and has been struggling to deal with shortages in recent weeks.

We are also watching for a possible visit to North Korea by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Xi’s security advance team is in Pyongyang now, making arrangements for a visit.  Xi is reported to want to help broker better relations among North Korea, the US, and South Korea.  But China no longer has the influence it once had over North Korea since the start of the Ukraine War, as North Korea has grown closer to Russia, sending large numbers of soldiers to fight and selling large quantities of munitions.  It will be Xi’s first visit to the Hermit Kingdom since 2019.

Here in the Americas, Colombia is holding hotly contested presidential elections next Sunday to replace President Gustavo Petro, who is constitutionally barred from running again.  The contest has effectively consolidated into a three-way race between candidates representing sharply divergent visions for the country: Iván Cepeda, who represents the far left and is polling around 44%, Abelardo De la Espriella, who represents the hard right and is polling in the mid 20% range, and Paloma Valencia, who represents the center-right, is floating in the 18 – 21% range in polls.   

It is highly likely that a run-off will take place.  The critical sub-contest is therefore between De la Espriella and Valencia for the second runoff slot, with conservative voters split between them, and the other ten candidates far behind. A weighted average of recent polls suggests that Cepeda could narrowly lose to Valencia and tie De la Espriella in a runoff scenario. 

Also, this week, Pope Leo XIV releases his first encyclical -Magnifica Humanitas – on the use of artificial intelligence (AI).  It is expected to warn society of the grave risks of unfettered AI for humanity.  According to the New York Times, the Holy Father calls for: government regulation of the private companies that are driving the development of A.I., protection and retraining for workers whose jobs are threatened, education to help students think critically about the technology, action to protect children from violent, hypersexualized or fake information online that is often generated by A.I., and safeguards to ensure that humans, not artificial intelligence, remain responsible for all decisions regarding the use of weapons.

 Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, the big focus is on inflation reports from the US, the Eurozone, and Japan.   

In the US, the April PCE will be released on Thursday.  Also out on Thursday is the durable goods orders report.  Both reports come after Tuesday’s Conference Board consumer confidence release.

In Asia this week, Japan’s Tokyo CPI print is out on Friday, as are the April industrial production and retail sales reports.   China releases industrial profits on Wednesday.

Finally, in Europe this week, May inflation prints are out on Friday for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.  All should be good reflective indicators of the economic damage caused so far by the Iran conflict.  We will also get the European Central Bank minutes out this week.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Cyprus holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds National Assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 25, 2026

Global

·       Pope Leo XIV releases his new encyclical on AI – Magnifica Humanitas – warning of the risk of AI to civilization. You can read it HERE.

·       The United Nations is closed for the holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Memorial Day, a national holiday.  Financial markets and banks are closed.

·       Today is Revolution Day in Argentina, a holiday.

·        U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit India through May 26th.

·       The United States and Mexico hold their first official round of negotiations as part of a review of their trilateral trade deal with Canada (USMCA).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for a meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang sometime this week (but no official announcement has been made, and the meeting may take place in early June – Reuters and other news services report Chinese security teams and advance teams have been in the North Korean capital preparing for a visit). 

·       Venezuela’s Interim President Delcy Rodriguez travels to India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The meeting will mostly focus on oil supplies for India.

·       Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will visit China through May 28th.

·       Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan will visit China through May 26th.

·       Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnivirakoul will visit France through May 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (March/ Leading Index (March)/ PPI (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Whit Monday, a holiday in most European countries.  Most financial markets and banks are closed.

·       A delegation of the Security and Defence Committee will travel to Canada to hold policy discussions with officials, political counterparts, and experts, on deepening EU-Canada defense cooperation, including the country’s participation in the SAFE program. MEPs will also discuss Canada's participation in peacekeeping operations, NATO, support for Ukraine, Arctic security, and the supply of critical raw materials.

·       The UK Parliament is in recess until June 1.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May)

·       Poland Retail Sales (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       EARNINGS: Salvatore Ferragamo, Pharma Mar

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Jordan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Development Bank will hold its annual meeting in the capital of the Republic of the Congo, Brazzaville, from May 29th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Upholding the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter and Strengthening the UN-centered International System. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the session.  UN Secretary-General António Guteres will deliver remarks.

·       Muslims around the world will observe Eid al-Adha through May 30th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are out of session this week.

·       The Texas Republican senate primary run-off is held.

·       NASA will hold a press conference to update on its moon base plans and highlight progress towards a sustained presence on the lunar surface.

·       Today is Independence Day in Guyana, a national holiday.

·       President Trump gets a medical and dental checkup at Walter Reed Hospital in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nicolas Vincent, External Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO).

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (April)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

·       EARNINGS: AutoZone, Semtech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India will host the Quad foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi, with the ongoing Iran war expected to figure prominently in discussions. The gathering, to be presided over by Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, is scheduled to be attended by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Marcos begins a four-day visit to Japan.  This coincides with the 70th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between Manila and Tokyo. The visit will feature a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, during which the two leaders are expected to upgrade relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership and discuss critical regional issues like maritime security and energy cooperation.

·       The MRO Greater China Industry Show begins in Beijing, China.  Approximately 200 domestic and international exhibitors will be there, focusing on “operation and maintenance of domestic large aircraft and the digital transformation of civil aviation.”  

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore     Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production  (April)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index  (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Economic Minster Katherina Reiche travels to Beijing, China for meetings.  BASF CEO Markus Kamieth will accompany her.  BASF recently opened a €9 billion complex in Zhanjiang – BASF’s largest investment ever.

·       The EU’s 8th Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Brussels. The meeting will serve to confirm the fulfilment of the interim benchmarks by Albania and to set closing benchmarks for Cluster 1 'Fundamentals', including Chapters 23 - judiciary and fundamental rights, and 24 - justice, freedom and security, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform and economic criteria. The Cluster also includes Chapters 5 – public procurement, 18 – statistics, and 32 - financial control.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the availability and affordability of fertilizers in the EU, following the presentation of the Fertilizer Action Plan by the European Commission.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will start preparations for the June European Council meeting by discussing the annotated draft agenda.  The agenda includes a discussion among the European Council on Ukraine, the Middle East, the next multiannual financial framework, overall global economic challenges, common European defense and security issues, and migration.

·       The UK Parliament is out of session this week.

·       Today is Independence Day in Georgia, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes its Consolidated Financial Statement for the Eurosystem.

·       The European Central Bank presents “Financial Stability Review Special Feature: Stress in global private credit and its implications for euro area financial stability.”

·       UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (May)/ CBI Distributive Trades (May)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Spain PPI (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Finance Magnates Africa Summit, which focuses on trading, takes place in Cape Town.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)             

Wednesday, May 27, 2026 

Global

·       The United Nations is closed for an official holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to New York for a two-day set of meeting with institutional investors, CEOs, and other business leaders.  While there, he will address the Economic Club of New York on his economic agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy at the Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference, Tokyo, Japan.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on AI, the economy, and the financial system at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) Policy Forum, Stanford, California.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in “Policy Panel Discussion 1: Monetary Policy and Imbalances" before the 2026 Monetary Policy from New Perspectives Conference hosted by the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/22)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/22)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook  (May/23)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/22)

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)

·       EARNINGS: Salesforce, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, National Bank of Canada, Agilent, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Best Buy, EQB, Marvell

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong International Airport opens an expanded Terminal 2, aiming to enhance its competitiveness as a regional hub. The airport says about 15 carriers will operate out of the new facility, flying mostly short-haul and regional routes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference will begin in Tokyo, Japan through May 28th.  Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers opening remarks.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (May)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI  (April)/ CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Philippines Budget Balance (April)

·       Japan BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 62nd European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels. Under the Presidency of  Michael Damianos, Minister of Energy, Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Cyprus, representing the Presidency of the Council of the EU. The meeting will be attended by  Espen Barth Eide, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway  Sabine Monauni, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Environment and Culture of Liechtenstein, and  Martin Eyjólfsson, Permanent Secretary of State of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Iceland, as well as by representatives of the European Commission and the European External Action Service. The members of the EEA Council will discuss the overall functioning of the Agreement on the European Economic Area (EEA Agreement) and hold an orientation debate on ‘Ensuring competitiveness and green growth in the Internal Market.”

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers - Gymnich through May 28th in Limassol, Cyprus.

·       Members of the European Parliament’s s standing delegation for relations with China will travel to Beijing for the 43rd EU-China interparliamentary meeting with counterparts from the National People’s Congress. This is the first such gathering held in China following the lifting of Chinese sanctions against European lawmakers, political bodies, researchers and organizations.

·       UK energy regulator Ofgem announces an update to the energy price cap for the period July 1 to September 30th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)

·       France Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/Job Seekers Total (April)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Russia Industrial Production (April)

·       EARNINGS: Manchester United

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic &Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Healthcare Innovation Summit Africa will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa through May 28th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 28, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Canada through May 30th.  This is the first time a Chinese foreign minister will have visited China in 10 years.  He will meet with Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand to discuss the recently updated Canada-China Strategic Partnership.

·       US Vice President JD Vance speaks at the US Air Force Academy’s commencement ceremony in Colorado.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Canada releases the 2026 Financial Stability Report.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Reykjavík Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University in Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Brazil Bank Lending (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)

·       USA Building Permits  (April)/ Durable Goods Orders (April)/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Personal Income (April)/ Personal Spending  (April)/ Corporate Profits   Q1/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Trans (April)/ GDP Price Index  2nd Est Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/23)/ PCE Price Index (April)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/16)/  PCE Prices 2nd Est Q1/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense  (April)/ GDP Sales  2nd Est Q1/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/23)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (April)/ Real Consumer Spending  2nd Est Q1/ Real Personal Spending (April)/ New Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (May/22)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/27)

·       Canada Current Account Q1/ Average Weekly Earnings (March)/ BoC Financial Stability Report

·       Columbia Business Confidence (April)

·       EARNINGS: Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, CIBC, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, Dollar Tree, NetApp, Gap, BRP

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Humanoid Summit begins in Tokyo, Japan.  The global conference is dedicated to humanoid robots and physical artificial intelligence. The two-day event will feature live robot demonstrations and speeches by industry leaders, with participants from companies including Google DeepMind, Boston Dynamics and Toyota Motor.

·       Kazakhstan will host a Eurasian Economic Union summit in Astana.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

·       A new ferry service is scheduled to connect Taiwan's Keelung, near Taipei, with the picturesque island of Ishigaki in Japan's Okinawa. The first sailing is due to depart late Thursday and arrive around 8 a.m. the next morning. The ferry will initially operate once a week on a trial basis, before expanding to two weekly round trips.

·       Azerbaijan celebrates the founding of their democracy today.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/23)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

·       New Zealand NZ Business Confidence (May)/ Budget 2026

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q1/ Household Spending (April)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q1/ Private Capital Expenditure Q1

·       Thailand New Car Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       The Finance Ministers of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain will issue a joint statement outlining political compromises aimed at advancing the bloc's Savings and Investments Union. Many observers see the effort as a step toward breaking the political deadlocks preventing the bloc from creating a U.S.-style financial market in a crunch meeting later this month.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the Industrial Accelerator Act: how best to leverage access to the Single Market through European preference and low-carbon requirements. The Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) is a flagship legislative proposal aimed at strengthening European industrial competitiveness with the objective that by 2035 20% of the EU’s GDP should come from the industrial sector. It includes measures such as speeding up permitting, boosting demand for low carbon or "Made in EU" products, and controlling foreign investment. It was adopted by the Commission on March 4, 2026.  They will also hold a discussion on the 28th Corporate Legal Framework.  They will then move to approve a Council conclusion on “building a sustainable and competitive tourism for the future.”  The Council will then move to discuss the impact of the crisis in the Middle East on the EU tourism sector as well as key challenges facing the European Chemical industry.

·       The second day of informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers – Gymnich takes places in Limassol, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 28th meeting of Francophone Central Bank Governors in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech followed by Q&A at a public event  entitled "Euro Digitale e Sovranità Europea" organized by Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat to discuss the “Monetary Policy from New Perspectives" organized by Bank of Japan and Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies in Tokyo, Japan.  Later, he gives a pre-recorded video address to the External Statistics Conference jointly organized by Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, ECB and National Bank of Poland in Krakow, Poland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a public lecture as part of the Selten Salon organized by ECONtribute in Cologne, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden participates in a fireside chat at the 58th International Capital Market Association annual general meeting and conference in London.

·       The European Central Bank account of the last monetary policy meeting is published.

·       UK Car Production (April)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Selling Price Expectations (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

·       France PPI (April)

·       Spain Retail Sales (April)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Ethiopia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, May 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on South Sudan sanctions, followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee (regarding North Korea).

·       G7 Digital Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. hosts "security track" discussions between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, D.C. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Chamber of Commerce Southern New Jersey.

·       Brazil Government Budget Value (April)/ Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Net Payrolls (April)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1/ GDP (March)/ GDP (April)/ GDP Implicit Price  Q1/ Budget Balance (March)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (April)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (April)/Chicago PMI (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/29)

·       Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

·       Columbia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Cement Production (April)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shangri-La Dialogue beings in Singapore. Asia's largest annual defense conference will feature U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, while top military generals and admirals and security analysts are expected to discuss global geopolitical tensions and Asia's maritime security. An AUKUS defense ministers meeting involving Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. is also planned on the sidelines of the conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ ANZ Business Confidence (May)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (May)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Australia Housing Credit (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (April)/Import/Export Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Thailand Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption (April)/ Private Investment (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 3rd Est 2025-26/ Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Bank Loan Growth (May/15)/ Deposit Growth (May/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/22)/ M3 Money Supply (May/15)

·       EARNINGS: JTB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the legislative measures linked to the 10th framework program for research and innovation 2028-2034, also known as the Horizon Europe package. Horizon Europe is the EU’s key funding program for research and innovation. On 16 July 2025, the European Commission put forward its proposal for the 10th framework program, with a €175 billion budget, as part of the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF).  The will also move to adopt a Council recommendation for an EU framework for science diplomacy.

·       The Nato Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session begins in Lithuania.

·       The foreign ministers of Poland, Estonia and Iceland will meet in Warsaw, Poland after the Council of the Baltic Sea States meeting.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Germany Import Prices (April)/ Unemployed Persons (May)/ Unemployment Change (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Harmonized Inflation Rate   (May)// Household Consumption (April)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply  (April)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Greece PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Ukraine Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 30, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Speech Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Malta holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine L Mann participates on a panel at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference ‘Central bank independence under attack’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 31, 2026 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia holds presidential elections.  Current polling points to a runoff between left wing candidate Ivan Cepeda and a right-wing contender. The first round will determine if establishment figure, Paloma Valencia or radical outsider, Abelardo de la Espriella, advance to the runoff. Valencia would prove more attractive to centrist swing voters. Her victory would reinforce our outlook that the opposition wins the presidency.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Orašac, Croatia

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell gives acceptance remarks at the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene: Panel at the 32nd Dubrovnic Economics Conference ‘Stablecoins and monetary policy’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds elections for its National Assembly as well as municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Geopolitics and Central Bank Action Converge, King Charles Visits Washington in an Effort to Bolster “The Special Relationship”, Japan’s Prime Minister Visits Vietnam and Australia, and a Big Corporate Earnings Week

April 26 - May 3, 2026

It is a big week for markets and geopolitics as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada each meet on monetary policy while the Iran War remains stalemated. 

Efforts to move forward on negotiations between the United States and Iran failed this past weekend.  President Trump pulled back his two lead negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, from going to Islamabad, Pakistan, mostly because it was not clear Iranian negotiators would show up.

The situation is likely to remain fluid this week as Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and other countries try to quietly patch together next steps for talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, is traveling to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation.  But one thing is clear: The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially bottled up as the U.S. Navy continues its blockade (enhanced now as a third aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS George Bush arrives in the region). 

Central banks are watching the Iran situation closely and its impact on the global economy, trying to decide interest rate policy. The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada announce their decisions on Wednesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday.  Market consensus points to all five central banks holding on any moves on rates.

We would note that it now appears Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell, will move forward after the U.S. Justice Department drops its criminal investigation of Powell.  Dropping the case allows a number of U.S. Senators who had vowed to block Warsh’s confirmation until the investigation was dropped to allow the vote to move forward.  The Senate Banking Committee is now scheduled to hold a confirmation vote on Warsh on Wednesday, which means the full Senate could vote by the end of the week.

Also this week, King Charles will be in Washington for the first state visit by a British monarch to the United States in almost 20 years.  While the King and Queen Camilla will tour the US as part of their visit, it comes with a critical purpose for the UK: mending and reinforcing the “US-UK special relationship,” which has become increasingly brittle in recent months as President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have sparred on everything from trade to the Iran War.

Elsewhere in the world this week, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit Vietnam and then Australia.  Her visit to Vietnam is particularly important as she is expected to stress Japan’s determination to push a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” agenda, seeking Vietnam’s greater involvement in ensuring maritime security in the South China Sea – pushing back on China’s growing aggressive efforts to control the sea. 

Takaichi is then expected to travel to Australia to meet with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, where the two leaders will sign an economic security pact focusing on critical minerals, while also hammering out new agreements covering energy assurances and greater defense cooperation.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the central bank meetings discussed above are the major focus.  But there are a number of major economic reports being released this week that markets are watching closely.  In the US, Q1 GDP is released on Thursday, as is the March PCE (a favorite data point for the Federal Reserve when deciding on interest rates).  The US Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday, while the ISM Manufacturing Index is out on Friday.

In Asia, China’s PMIs are released on Thursday and Japan’s industrial production, retail sales, and consumer confidence are out on Thursday, and the April Tokyo CPI is out on Friday.

And in Europe this week, Germany and Spain report April CPI on Wednesday.  The Eurozone Q1 GDP is out on Thursday. 

Finally, we would note that this week is a very big week for corporate earnings.  It will be quite interesting to hear the collective forward guidance from many companies as economic uncertainty grows as a result of the Iran War.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 27, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.   

·       The UN’s International Conference on Effective Nuclear and Radiation Regulatory Systems: Strengthening Competence, Agility and Connection in the Modern Era will take place through April 30th in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla begin a state visit to the US, which includes a White House State Banquet and an Address before Congress.

·       The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Brazil Bank Lending MoM (February)/ Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Verizon, Nucor, Fairfax Financial (CAN), Universal Health Services, Crown Holdings, Domino’s Pizza, Crane,

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Food and Beverage Innovation Forum begins in Hangzhou, China.  The three-day event will cover the latest food trends and technologies, while investors will be scouting for deals, as global chains like Starbucks partner with private equity firms to compete in the world's No. 2 economy.

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog will pay an official visit to Astana, Kazakhstan, through April 28th.

·       Anzac Day is observed in New Zealand.  Financial markets are closed.

·       The militaries of the United States, the Philippines, Australia, Japan and other US partners will jointly conduct the Balikatan drills in the Philippines through May 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits YoY (March)/National People's Congress Standing Committee 

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Maylasia PPI YoY

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (February)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

·       Singapore Industrial Production MoM (March)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)

·       EARNINGS: Hitachi, Daiwa Securities, JERA

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss the strategic importance of agriculture and sustainable forest management in strengthening wildfire risk prevention and resilience, Post-2027 CAP proposals: key design choices for income support, and the overall market situation, in particular following the invasion of Ukraine and the Iran War.

·       The UK Parliament’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy takes evidence from former defense secretary and Nato secretary-general Lord George Robertson and foreign affairs adviser Fiona Hill, both of whom were involved in last year’s British strategic defense review.

·       The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute publishes annual military expenditure data.

·       Slovenia celebrates the Day of Uprising Against Occupation, commemorating when 1941 Slovenia was overrun by Nazi forces.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at joint Karlspreis and Helmut Kohl Foundation event "Blossoming Landscapes 2.0 – A New Agenda for Europe" organized by the International Charlemagne Prize of Aachen and Bundeskanzler Helmut Kohl Foundation in Aachen, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (April)

·       EARNINGS: Deutsche Bourse

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire is set to expire.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa celebrates Freedom Day, a national holiday and financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Sierra Leon Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Independence Day in Togo, a national holiday.

·       The 15th annual Connected Africa Summit, focusing on digital inclusion and innovation, gathers in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

·       The Joint Bank for International Settlements, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and IMF Spillover Conference begins in Washington and runs through April 29th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Genting Malaysia will launch New York City's first live table games at Resorts World New York City, transforming the slots-only venue into a full-scale casino. The rollout includes 240 table games with more than 1,500 blackjack, craps, baccarat and roulette positions, alongside over 2,500 slot machines, with thousands more to be added later this year.

·       Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presents the Spring Economic Statement to the Canadian parliament in Ottawa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI MoM (April)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook YoY (April)/25/S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (February)/ Home Price Index (February)/Home Price Index MoM (February)/CB Consumer Confidence (April)/Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/24)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Visa, Coca-Cola, T-Mobile, S&P Global, Starbucks, General Motors, UPS, Waste Management, Hilton, Robinhood, Vale (Brazil), Sysco, Fair Isaac, Kimberly Clark, Omnicom, Franklin Resources, Invesco, Seaboard, Caesars Entertainment, JetBlue, NCR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 25th Asean-EU ministerial meeting in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy.  A press conference will follow the meeting.

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/Jobs/applications ratio (March)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports YoY (March)/Balance of Trade (March)         

·       India Industrial Production YoY/Manufacturing Production YoY (March)

·       EARNINGS: China Merchants Bank, Sinopec, Mitsubishi Electric, Fujitsu, China Pacific Insurance, TDK, Bank of Beijing, Tokyo Gas, NEC, TDK

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through April 29 in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy speaks at the JP Morgan UK Banks Asset Management & Liability Management Conference in London.

·       Norges Bank Investment Management hosts its annual investment conference in Oslo, with speakers including World Bank President Ajay Banga and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

·       Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an informal dinner and exchange of views with the Governing Council with EU Commissioner for Financial Services and the Savings and Investments Union Maria Luís Albuquerque in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q1/Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Italy Industrial Sales MoM (February)/ PPI MoM (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)/Jobseekers Total (March)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (April)/Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovenia Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       EARNINGS: Airbus, BP, Taylor Wimpey, WPP, Barclays

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM (February)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations peacekeeping operations.

·       G7 Development Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. International Trade Commission will hold a preliminary conference on whether PTMEG imports from China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam are injuring U.S. producers, which could lead to duties on specialty chemicals.

·       Bloomberg hosts its annual Bloomberg House in Miami, Florida.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

·       The Bank of Canada meets to consider monetary policy.  There will be a press conference in the afternoon with BoC Governor Tiff Macklem.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM (April)/ PPI MoM (March)/Interest Rate Decision

·       USA  MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/24)/ Building Permits Prel (February)/ Building Permits Prel (March)/ Durable Goods Orders MoM (March)/ Housing Starts (February)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Building Permits MoM Prel (February)/ Building Permits MoM Prel (March)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM MAR/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (March)/ Housing Starts MoM (March)/ Housing Starts MoM (February)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv (March)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv (March)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (March)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (March)/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (April/17)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, AbbVie, Qualcomm, ADP, General Dynamics, Canadian National Railway, Allstate, Ford, Old Dominion Freight, Yum Brands, Vulcan Materials, Banco Santander Brazil, CGI (CAN), Stanley Black & Decker, MGM Resorts, Penske Automotive, American Financial, Capital Power (CAN), Choice Properties (CAN), Blackstone Mortgage, Aflac, Humana, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, SoFi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit Vietnam. She is expected to give a major foreign policy speech whereby she will renew Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy" diplomatic policy initiative.  The initiative is aimed to bring greater focus on economic security, including bolstering supply chains for critical goods and expanding energy security, according to the sources.

·       Japan begins Golden Week, a series of national public holidays.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Inflation Rate YoY (March)/Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY Q1/CPI (March)/RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (March)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Gov Breman Speech

·       Singapore Import/Export Prices YoY (March)/PPI YoY (March)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Thailand Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Housing Starts YoY (March)/ Construction Orders YoY (March)

·       India M3 Money Supply YoY (April/17)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       EARNINGS: CNOOC, Foxconn, Ping An Insurance, Peoples Insurance Company, China Northern Rare Earth, HKEX

Europe                                                                                                 

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through April 30 in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council begins two days of meetings on monetary policy.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision Gareth Trunan speaks at the 23rd Annual Conference on Bulk Annuities in London.

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (April)/Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (March)/ Economic Confidence Index (April)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies YoY (March)/ Loans to Households YoY (March)/ M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Economic Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Selling Price Expectations (April)/ Services Sentiment (April)/ECB Buch Speech

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM (April)/ Bavaria CPI MoM (April)/ Brandenburg CPI MoM (April)/ Hesse CPI MoM (April)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM (April)/Saxony CPI MoM (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)

·       Italy Business Confidence (April)/Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (March)/ Total Credit YoY (March)

·       Great Britain Car Production YoY (March)

·       France GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Household Consumption MoM (March)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Corporate Profits (February)/ Real Wage Growth YoY (February)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)

·       EARNINGS: Novartis, Banco Santander, Total Energies, AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Lloyds Bank, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Mercedes Benz AG, Edessa, Adidas, Michelin, Porsche AG,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Blockchain DeFi & Web3 Summit meets in Lagos, Nigeria.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Antigua and Barbuda hold elections for their House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Net Payrolls (March)

·       USA  Core PCE Price Index MoM (March)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1/ Personal Income MoM (March)/ Personal Spending MoM (March)/ Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ Q1/ Employment Cost Benefits/Employment Cost Wages QoQ Q1/ Employment Cost Index QoQ Q1/ GDP Price Index QoQ Adv Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/25)/ PCE Price Index MoM (March)/ PCE Price Index Continuing Jobless Claims (April/18) /Core PCE Price Index YoY (March)/ GDP Sales QoQ Adv Q1/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (April/25)/PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q1/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ Adv Q1/ Real Personal Spending MoM (March)/ Chicago PMI (April)/ CB Leading Index MoM (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/24)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate /30/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/29)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Fiscal Balance (March)

·       Canda GDP MoM (February)/ GDP MoM Prel (March)/ Average Weekly Earnings YoY (February)

·       Chile Copper Production YoY (March)/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Manufacturing Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Columbia Business Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production YoY (March)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: Apple, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, ConocoPhillips, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Altria, Southern, Royal Caribbean, Intercontinental Exchange, Cigna, L3Harris, Valero Energy, Carrier, Cardinal Health, AIG, Hershey, Xcel Energy, Martin Marietta Materials, Iron Mountain, LPL Financial, T. Rowe Price, Textron, Alliant Energy, Hyatt Hotels, Bombardier (CAN), Clorox, International Paper, Rivian Auto, AES, Molson Coors, Encompass Heath, Baxter International, LKQ, Eastman Chemical, Choice Hotels, NexGen Energy (CAN), CNO Financial, Federated Hermes, Air Canada, Weyerhaeuser, Fomento Economico Mexica

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro speaks at the Manila Overseas Press Club's DFA Night on April 30; she is expected to address ASEAN hosting, the Iran war, the West Philippine Sea dispute with China, and energy security. Worth tracking for Manila's posture going into the summit.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production MoM (March)/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Japan Industrial Production MoM Prel (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

·       Australia Import/Export Prices QoQ Q1/ Housing Credit MoM (March)/ Private Sector Credit MoM (March)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices MoM (April)

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS General PMI (April)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee/ KOF Leading Indicators (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Unemployment Rate Prel Q1/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Thailand New Car Sales YoY (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Consumption MoM (March)/ Private Investment MoM (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (February)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment YoY Q1

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply YoY (March)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate YoY (April)

·       EARNINGS: Samsung Electronics, ICBC, China Life Insurance, China Yangtze Power, Postal Savings Bank of China, Industrial Bank of China, Toyota Tsusho, China CITIC Bank, China Bank of Communications, Cosco Shipping, East Japan Railways, Kyocera, SAIC Motor, China Steel, China Securities, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, ANA, Japan Air, DBS, China State Shipbuilding

Europe       

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of meetings on monetary policy.  ECB President Christine Lagarde will then hold a press conference.

·       The Bank of England meets to consider monetary policy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a presentation at the Danish Economic Society in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential David Baile will participate in a fireside chat at International Swaps and Derivatives Association 40th annual general meeting in Boston, Massachusetts.

·       United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (April)/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1

·       France GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1/ Household Consumption MoM (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/PPI MoM (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel Q1

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1/ Current Account (February)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)

·       Turkey Balance of Trade Final (March)/Import/Export Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues Q1/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (March)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/24)

·       Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)

·       Germany Retail Sales MoM (March)/Import Prices MoM (March)/ Unemployed Persons (April)/ Unemployment Change (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)

·       Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate MoM (April)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1/ Inflation Rate YoY Flash (April)/ Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ CPI Flash (April)/ Deposit Facility Rate

·       Greece PPI YoY (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (February)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q1/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/Current Account (March)

·       EARNINGS: Schneider Electric, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Deutsche Post, Standard Chartered, Credit Agricole, BASF, Willis Towers Watson, Repsol, Volkswagen, MTU Aero Engines AG, Puma, Air France, ArcelorMittal, Rolls Royce

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI MoM (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Private Sector Credit YoY (March)

Friday, May 1, 2026

Global

·       China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of May. There will be a press briefing with Ambassador Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, who will serve as head of the Security Council for the month.

· May Day public holiday observed in multiple countries, including China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany, and France; financial markets closed in several regions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A bipartisan U.S. senatorial delegation, led by Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), will visit China ahead of the planned May 14-15 summit between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

·       King Charles and Queen Camilla begin a two-day visit, having completed their tour in the United States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Net Payrolls (March)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (April)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (April)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/01)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/01)

·       Peru Inflation Rate MoM (April)

·       EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, Canadian Pacific Railway, Colgate Palmolive, TransCanada, Imperial Oil (CAN), Dominion Resources, Estee Lauder, CBOE, Church & Dwight, Telus (CAN), Magna International (CAN), Moderna, AutoNation, Lear, Goodyear, Newell Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is scheduled to implement a zero-tariff coverage for exports from 53 African countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Beijing.

·       Today is Constitution Day in the Marshall Islands, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)/ Building Permits MoM (March)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ PPI QoQ Q1/ Commodity Prices YoY (April)

·       South Korea Exports/Imports/YoY/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Tokyo Core CPI YoY (April)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (April)/ Tokyo CPI YoY (April)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/25)

·       Sri Lanka PPI YoY (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate MoM (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth YoY (April/17)/ Deposit Growth YoY (April/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/24)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate MoM (April)/ Wholesale Prices YoY (April)

·       EARNINGS: Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Seiko Epson

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Much of Europe celebrates Labor Day.  Most banks, financial markets, and the European Central Bank are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will present at the virtual National Agency Briefing on Monetary Policy in London.

·       Russia GDP YoY (March)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (March)/ Mortgage Approvals (March)/ Mortgage Lending (March)/ M4 Money Supply MoM (March)/ Net Lending to Individuals MoM (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Turkey Imports/Exports Prel/Balance of Trade Prel (April)

·       EARNINGS: Linde, AON, Pearson, NatWest

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Private Bank Lending YoY (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Inflation Rate YoY (April)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate YoY (April)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       South Africa Budget Balance (March)

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Niue – the self-governing Polynesian island country that is a part of New Zealand – holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Global

·       OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Retail Sales YoY (April)/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers on May 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Rise as Ceasefire Set to Expire, EU Leaders Meet in Cyprus, and Fed Chair-Nominee Warsh Gets His Confirmation Hearing

April 19 - 26, 2026

Markets are gripped by rapidly shifting signals from Washington and Tehran over peace talks, with President Trump projecting a deal within days. However, President Trump ended the week telling reporters on Friday he expected a deal “in a day or two” and that his special envoys, Vice President J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were heading to Islamabad, Pakistan for a second round of talks. But this all abruptly was upended when the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.  This promptly led to Iranian threats to strike back and denials they were going to send a negotiating team to Pakistan.  This is an extraordinarily fast-moving situation as the cease-fire is scheduled to end two days from now.  The next steps all depend on whether Iran sends a delegation to Islamabad or not.

Meanwhile, EU leaders meet in Cyprus this week in what could be a pivotal session amid rising geopolitical crises, especially the Iran situation.  The “informal” agenda includes discussing the Iranian situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine (Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to address the group), as well as progress of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).  The MFF is a nearly €2 trillion budget proposal that aims to, according to the EU, “align resources with shared priorities (from competitiveness and innovation to defense, cohesion and external action) under a modernized, flexible and transparent structure.”

But the Iran crisis will dominate the discussions as energy prices spike in Europe.  EU leaders are likely to push emergency energy measures.  We would also note this will be the last EU meeting for outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who lost power last week after 16 years in power.

In Washington, the main event is the Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chair-nominee Kevin Warsh. Despite likely approval, the process could be stalled by the ongoing Justice Department investigation of current Chair Jay Powell and senators planned opposition until it concludes.  As we have written in client notes, this could delay Warsh’s confirmation for months, directly impacting upcoming FOMC meetings in June and July.

Beyond Warsh’s confirmation, global markets are starting to focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting April 28–29, the European Central Bank interest rate meeting on April 29, and the Bank of England interest rate meeting on April 30. 

This week’s global flash April PMIs are highly anticipated to gauge the economic impact of the Iran War. In the U.S., March existing home sales (Monday), April PPI and Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), March retail sales (Tuesday), and the key March PCE Index (Friday) are headline releases; Canada reports March CPI on Monday.

In Europe, markets will focus on Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Wednesday), UK labor data (Tuesday), and March inflation (Wednesday), plus major German and French economic surveys released throughout the week.

In Asia, big events include Japan’s March CPI (Friday), Taiwan’s export orders (Tuesday), and South Korea’s Consumer Sentiment (Thursday).

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       White House Special Envoys Stev Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran (TBD).  On Tuesday, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to join them in the talks (Again, TBD).

·       The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – was set to expire.  Congress passed a short-term extension last week as they continue to battle out how to get a final agreement hammered out.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will make his first visits as leader to India and Vietnam through Friday. Lee, who is expected to be joined by a business delegation, will meet with his counterparts for talks, which are likely to focus on energy and supply chain cooperation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 20, 2026

Global

·       The UN’s 2026 ECOSOC Forum on Financing for Development begins New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       An Indian delegation will be in Washington for trade talks with the U.S.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein interviews Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf at the Economic Club of Washington.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations.

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Alaska Airlines, Wintrust

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines and the U.S. are set to commence their annual weekslong war games. Japan will make its debut as an active participant in the exercises, after Tokyo and Manila's reciprocal access agreement came into effect last year.

·       Mongolian President Khurelsuh Ukhnaa will visit Kazakhstan through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)/ FDI (YTD) (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       India Infrastructure Output (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to update parliament on the vetting failure of former British ambassador to Washington Lord Peter Mandelson and his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the keynote at the annual reception of Association of German Banks on the occasion of their 75th anniversary in Berlin, Germany.

·       Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen speaks at a conference in Espoo, Finland.

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Greece Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Italy Construction Output (February)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (February)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       EARNINGS: M&C Saatchi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Israel, Yom Hazikaron, or Memorial Day, a commemoration for fallen soldiers and victims of militant attacks, begins.

·       Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambican President Daniel Chapo will visit China through April 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Global

·       The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire at midnight.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

·       UN Climate Week event kicks off in the coastal city of Yeosu, running until Saturday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be next chair of the Federal Reserve.

·       The Bahamas will host the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP4) on Environmental Affairs of Latin America and the Caribbean in Nassau.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution Event, Washington, D.C.

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (March)/ Redbook (April/18)/ Business Inventories (February)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/17)

·       Colombia Imports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: United Airlines, 3M, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, Danaher, Quest Diagnostics, Halliburton, CapitalOne, Interactive Brokers, Chubb, Annaly, RTX, Northrup Grumman

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC) is expected to convene its 22nd session in late April. The Council of Chairpersons was expected to meet in mid-April to set the agenda and dates. The session is expected to review a draft revision to the Bid Invitation and Bidding Law and draft revision to the Water Law, with additional bills also possible. While largely legislative rather than headline-grabbing, this is a key mechanism through which CCP policy priorities are formalized into law.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q1/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q1/ Inflation Rate Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to unveil the fourth element of its security guarantees for Ukraine at this session, covering Defence reform, cyber and hybrid measures, demining, and arms control.  The Council will also consider unblocking a €90 billion loan for Ukraine for 2026–2027 and discuss the 20th package of sanctions against Russia.  Additional ministers will be discussing the crisis with Iran, and its impact on the broader region and Europe, the South Caucasus (including Georgia), and Sudan, with discussion expected on tightening pressure on Russia across all dimensions. 

·       There will be an informal video conference of EU Transport Ministers. They are expected to discuss the Iranian situation and its impact on the EU transport sector.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Ankara, Turkey for meetings with President Tayyip Erdoğan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, and Minister of National Defense General Yaşar Gûler.

·       The UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee has invited Sir Olly Robbins, the top Foreign Office civil servant who was sacked last week, to give evidence at its meeting today.  Robbins was the senior official who signed off on Peter Mandelson’s background check, clearing him to be named UK Ambassador to the United States – and covering up his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

·       In the UK, the RMT union is due to begin the first of two 24-hour strikes on Tube lines over four-day working week proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks followed by Q&A at an event organized by La Razón in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at the International Economics Symposium in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher gives opening remarks at a conference on Ukraine in Vienna, Austria.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge participates in a panel about decision-making psychology in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Average Earnings incl. & excl. Bonus/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       EARNINGS: Associated British Foods, British Land, Beiersdorf, Jupiter Fund Management, Thales, WR Berkley, Rio Tinto

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV continues his African tour with a visit to Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/17)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/17)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, IBM, Boeing, AT&T, Boston Scientific, Philip Morris, CME Group, SCX, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, Moody’s, Raymond James

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Criminal Court is set to release its decision on whether the case of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte falls within its jurisdiction, after his defense team filed an appeal. Duterte is currently in detention in the Netherlands on charges related to crimes against humanity for his role in masterminding a bloody campaign against the illegal drug trade in his country.

·       The TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium takes place in Santa Clara, California.  The company will provide updates on its latest technological progress and breakthroughs, with a heavy focus on artificial intelligence. Of particular interest will be the Taiwanese chip titan's comments on the state of cutting-edge chip production processes, including 3-nanometer, 2-nm, A16, A14 and beyond.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of states through April 24 in Leftkosia, Cyprus.  Leaders will first discuss the situation in Iran and how the EU can best address the war and its impact.  They will also address the challenging geopolitical environment and provide political guidance on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028–2034.  Key elements include:

• Dinner discussions on April 23 beginning with a briefing from President Zelenskyy on Russia's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. 

• Discussion of the conflict in Iran and the Middle East, including Europe's contribution to de-escalation, freedom of navigation, and the effects of high fossil fuel prices on European citizens and companies. 

• A working session on the morning of April 24 focused on the next MFF, including discussions on New Own Resources and the EU budget's contribution to the competitiveness agenda. 

• An informal working lunch with leaders from the Middle East region to discuss shared challenges and opportunities for cooperation.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum XI begins in Delphi, Greece. Speakers include president of the European Council António Costa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will take part in a panel in honor of Nick Stern" organized by London School of Economics and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London, UK.  IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also is scheduled to speak.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a conversation "Banking reform in the EU – How should the EU balance banking reform, risk and competitiveness?" organized by Bruegel in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Chief Economist Philip R. Lane will give the keynote speech at a high-level ESRB workshop on European safe assets in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later he will participate in a panel discussion at Pre-presidency Irish Financial Issues Conference organized by the Consulate General of Ireland, CFS at Goethe University, Hertie School Jacques Delors Centre and Frankfurt Chamber of Industry and Commerce in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a conversation with Nicolas Véron for Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual series and podcast "What now, Europe?".

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a panel discussion at EU finance conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is part of an FT fireside chat about private credit in London, England.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks at the launch of the Gender Balance Index 2026, organized by OMFIF.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Euro Area Government Budget to GDP 2025/ Government Debt to GDP 2025/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (April)

·       Poland Business Confidence (April)

·       Russia Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: ABB, Aberdeen, Danone, L’Oreal, Nordea Bank

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 23, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it will hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       G& Environmental Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro will meet with Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez in the Venezuelan city of Maracaibo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (March)/ PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/22)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       Warner Bros Discovery holds a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Paramount Skydance for $31 a share. If approved, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.

·       EARNINGS: Nokia, Intel, Newmont, Dow, Blackstone, American Express, Huntington Bank, American Airlines, Lockheed Martin, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Verisign, Comcast, Keurig Dr Pepper, Freeport-McMoRan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Two of India's politically crucial states -- West Bengal and Tamil Nadu -- hold elections at a time when the country is grappling with a cooking gas shortage driven by supply chain disruptions owing to the Middle East conflict, an issue that is expected to weigh on voters' minds. While Tamil Nadu in India's south is going to the polls in a single stage, West Bengal in the country's east will hold its second and final phase on April 29.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q1

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of the April 29-30 rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on central-bank independence in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Seim speaks in Umea, Sweden.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       France S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Wage Tracker Q1

·       EARNINGS: BP, Dassault Systémes, Heineken, London Stock Exchange Group, Nokia, Orang, Renault, Sainsbury’s, Sanofi, WHSmith, Nestlé

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

·       Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson speaks at the Empire Club of Canada.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/24)

·       Canada Budget Balance (February)

·       EARNINGS: Proctor & Gamble, Schlumberger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Auto China Show, one of the world's largest auto shows, begins in Beijing.  The event will spotlight China's emergence as a major EV player at a time when the Iran war has made alternatives to pricey gasoline more attractive. Thousands of exhibitors and visitors will descend on the venue for 10 days. Chinese EV makers will be looking to set themselves apart with new innovations, aiming to leave behind a bruising domestic price war and ramp up exports.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q1/ Consumer Confidence Q1

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Greece for talks Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Athens, Greece.

·       Russian Foreign Ministry holds its quarterly briefing in Moscow, Russia.

·       Today is St. George’s Day celebrations, commemorating England’s patron saint.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks at the bank’s Annual General Meeting in Bern, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Electrolux, Kuehn+Nagle, Mondi, Telia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House Correspondents Dinner will take place in Washington, D.C.  President Trump is scheduled to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day, commemorating the first major military action Australia and New Zealand took in World War I. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom Day in Portugal, commemorating the end of political dictatorship.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 26, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Center for China & Globalization holds the 12th China Global Think Tank Innovation Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

• April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

• April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.

• April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.

• April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.

• May 3 – 6 – The Milken Institute Global Conference is held in Beverly Hills, California.

• May 10 – Lebanon is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

• May 31 – Colombia holds presidential elections.

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Facing Trump’s Latest Deadline, Taiwan’s Opposition Leader Travels to Beijing for Meetings, Peru and Hungary Hold Elections, and Markets Brace For The First Economic Reports Reflecting the Impact

April 5 - 12, 2026

We hope you had a peaceful Passover or Easter holiday.  The geopolitical week ahead will again be dominated by the escalating war in Iran.  On Monday morning, the latest deadline President Trump gave Iranian leaders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or, according to a profane Truth Social post, Iran will face massive bombings “and complete destruction” of all Iranian electrical power plants, bridges, and other civilian infrastructure. 

President Trump suggested in a press interview Sunday that his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are working through back channels to find a peaceful solution.  And he extended – again – the deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

As we said, the Iran situation will dominate global markets' attention, but there is an interesting event taking place this week in China.  Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party (KMT) opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, will be traveling to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese leaders.  Cheng is going at the invitation of President Xi and is considered a high-stakes gambit.  But it could also lead to further meetings between senior KMT officials and Beijing to de-escalate tensions between Taiwan and China.  She makes the trip as the KMT continue to stall legislation in parliament funding an additional $40 billion in defense spending. 

Two major elections are taking place this week, in Hungary and Peru. Hungary's parliamentary elections on Sunday are shaping up to be a difficult battle for 16-year incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Polls suggest the race is neck and neck between Orbán's Fidesz Party and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party. Orbán, a close ally of both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, asked President Trump to campaign for him this week. However, with Trump preoccupied by the Iran conflict, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to travel to Budapest to meet with Orbán.

In Peru, a record 35 candidates are running for president. The latest polls suggest conservative Keiko Fujimori — running for president for the fourth time — holds the lead, though a runoff is almost certain given the size of the field. The elections come after a prolonged period of political instability. Former President Pedro Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress in December 2022 and was subsequently impeached. His Vice President, Dina Boluarte, assumed the presidency but was removed by Congress in October 2025 for "moral incapacity." She was succeeded by the President of Congress, José Jeri, who became the country's seventh president in nine years — only to be removed in February 2026 after it emerged that he had held undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman under government investigation. Jeri was replaced by José María Balcázar, then President of Congress, who assumed the interim presidency — the eighth in nine years — to oversee the transition to these elections.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be looking at the U.S. March CPI on Friday.  That report is expected to kick off a series of reports showing the negative impact of the Iran War on the global economy.

Also on the U.S. calendar this week: the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the March ISM Services report (Monday), the February PCE (Thursday), and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Friday).

In Europe, the European Central Bank's Governing Council will convene for a retreat on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the economic outlook. Germany also releases trade and industrial production figures this week.

In Asia, China releases its March PPI and CPI reports on Friday. Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Survey on Wednesday, Consumer Confidence on Thursday, and PPI on Friday. The Bank of Korea meets on interest rates — with no change expected — and Taiwan reports CPI on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday.

·       Eight Opec+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — meet to decide on their output policy for May.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia’s Daylight Savings Ends.

·       Kyoto, Japan holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

Monday, April 6, 2026

Global

·        The G-24 meeting is being held in advance of the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to comply with his demand for them to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is today (10:05 a.m. EST).  Trump will then hold a press conference with US military leaders at 1:00 p.m.

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Easter holiday.

·       Chilean President Jose Antonio Kast visits Argentina to meet with President Javier Milei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       USA ISM Services PMI (March)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam's new National Assembly members, elected in March for five-year terms, start their first legislative session. The rubber-stamp parliament will vote on the country's top leaders, including president and prime minister, in addition to debating laws.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       AMRO is set to release its annual regional economic outlook, offering an assessment of long-term growth trends across Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and China. The reports are expected to underscore the impact of rising uncertainty in global trade and heightened geopolitical tensions.

·        Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Most European governments are closed in observance of Easter Monday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       It is Easter Monday in Europe.  Most financial markets and banks are closed as is the European Central Bank.

·       Spain Unemployment Change (March)

·       Serbia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Jordan PPI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of Burundi celebrates President Ntaryamira Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market at the University of Detroit Mercy College of Business Administration Charlton Center for Responsible Investing Speaker Series, Detroit, Michigan.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ Redbook (April/04)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (April)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations/Consumer Credit Change (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/03)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (March)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Levis, Skillsoft, XCEL Brands, Exxon Q1 preview

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Finance ministry and central bank officials from the 11 ASEAN member states will meet in Manila, the Philippines through Friday to discuss financial services integration, regulatory cooperation and capital market development.

·       Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT), makes a closely watched visit to China. She is expected to meet President Xi during her stay through Sunday, which would mark the first engagement between the sitting leaders of the Communist Party and KMT in a decade. Beijing refuses to talk with the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party administration in Taiwan, which sees Cheng's visit as part of an effort to undercut it and undermine defense cooperation with the U.S.

·       The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is set to release its annual survey of Southeast Asian attitudes on regional strategic developments and issues impacting members of the ASEAN bloc. The report, done in January and February before the Iran war, covers topics such as the South China Sea, rising protectionism and nationalism, as well as U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump.

·       SmartTech Asia, an expo focused on AI, digital payments and smart identity solutions, is held in Mumbai through April 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)

·       Japan Household Spending (February)/ Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)/ Household Spending (February)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Budget Balance (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (March)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukrainian Parliament starts the voting process on reforms required to secure external financing. The final vote is expected on Wednesday.

·       UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow to discuss her candidacy for the UN Secretary General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council attends a retreat hosted by the Banque of France through Wednesday, April 8th.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)

·       Spain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Italy S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       France S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       GITEX AFRICA, Africa’s flagship technology and innovation summit, takes place in Marrakech and runs through April 9.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Vice President JD Vance starts a two-day visit, meeting Viktor Orbán and his officials ahead of voting in what is seen as the prime minister’s toughest election contest since 2010.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets with President Trump in Washington through April 12th.  Rutte comes after renewed threats by President Trump to withdraw from NATO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gives keynote remarks and speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce in St. George, Utah.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (March)

·       US Federal Reserve FMOC Minutes

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/03)/ Used Car Prices (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks & Gasoline Change (April/03)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Delta Airlines, Richardson Electronics, Applied Blockchain

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Touch Taiwan, one of Taiwan's biggest industry gatherings of the first half of the year, kicks off in Taipei with a focus on smart displays, advanced manufacturing, industrial materials, green technology and more. Exhibitors include Delta Electronics, Innolux, Merck and Corning.

·       The QS China Summit is held in Shenzhen, China through April 9.  The Summit is considered a premier forum for academics, industry experts, and decision-makers on the future of higher education in China. It's a niche but well-attended event drawing university and corporate leaders.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Current Account (February)

·       Japan Current Account (February)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (March/31)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts the Council of Heads of Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation.

·       In the UK, resident doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association, begin six days of strike action after rejecting the government’s pay offer.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (February)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       France Current Account (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       EARNINGS: Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Inflation Rate (March)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).

·       International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the spring meetings curtain-raiser speech in advance of the Spring IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will give a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada’s Liberal Party’s biennial convention begins in Montreal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (March)/ Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Personal Income (February)/ Personal Spending (February)/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/04)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/08)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (February)

·       Colombia PPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Blackberry, ClearSign, WD-40 Company, Constellation Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines celebrates the Day of Valor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/04)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (February)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Fast Retailing, Seven & I, Tata Consultancy Services

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day official visit, including a meeting with Pope Leo XIV.

·       Today is Kosovo Constitution Day, a national holiday.

·       The Politico European Pulse Forum begins in Barcelona, Spain, and runs through April 10th.  Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, European Commission Executive Vice President for Competition Teresa Ribera, along with a number of other EU and Spanish government officials and CEOs will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Member Olaf Sleijpen gives a keynote speech at the DNB pension seminar in Amsterdam.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before a European Parliament economic committee in his capacity as chair of the Financial Stability Board.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

·       Spain Industrial Production (February)

·       Greece Industrial Production (February)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The WiT Africa Conference, which is focused on the Asian travel industry in Africa, kicks off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 10, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Bilderberg Meeting takes place outside of Washington, D.C., through April 12th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Court of International Trade to consider the legality of President Donald Trump’s latest round of global tariffs, in lawsuits filed by 24 states and two small businesses.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (February)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (March)/ Participation Rate (March)/ Average Hourly Wages (March)

·       USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Factory Orders (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Asia Development Bank (ADB) is set to release its annual regional economic outlook for Asia.

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

·       Japan Bank Lending (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

·       China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Sales (March)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/20)/ Deposit Growth (March/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (March)/ GDP (March)

·       Earnings: Yaskawa Electric

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at an event entitled "Economía y Territorio: Claves para un desarrollo inclusivo" organised by Cámara Oficial de Comercio, Industria y Servicios de Soria in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Sodexo

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Djibouti holds its presidential elections. incumbent president Ismaïl Omar Guelleh who won a fifth term in 2021, has been president since 1999. Originally ineligible for a sixth term due to the age limit of 75 that Guelleh imposed as part of the reforms, Djibouti passed a constitutional amendment in 2025 that lifted age limits, allowing him to run again.

·       The 9th Indian Ocean Conference begins in Mauritius and runs through April 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Global

·       The U.S. temporary license for seaborne Russian oil sales is set to expire.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 12, 2026

Global

·       Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

·       Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.  There are 35 candidates running for president an almost assuredly will lead to a run-off election.  Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin holds Presidential elections. The ruling coalition and Romuald Wadagni, current minister of state for Finance and Cooperation and Talon’s designated successor, are likely to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

• April 13 – 19 – The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings are to be held in Washington, D.C., bringing together finance ministers, central bank governors, and other officials from around the world.

• Week of April 13 – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members of the committee have vowed to hold up the confirmation until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

The Global Week Ahead

The US and Iran Begin Talks to Avert a US Military Strike, The US Hosts a Critical Mineral Summit, Japan Holds Elections, and the ECB and Bank of England Meet on Interest Rates

February 1 - 8, 2026

Washington remains frozen and covered in “snowcrete,” but there is a lot going on here in terms of geopolitical activity.   First, it appears the US will be meeting with Iranian officials face-to-face this coming Friday in Istanbul to attempt to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program.  Up until this point, there have been no official face-to-face meetings between the two countries, but Iran, seeing the approach of a large US Naval force and President Trump’s demands for talks, relented.  The impact on oil/gas markets could be significant if an agreement is ultimately reached.

 Also this week, on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hosting a critical minerals ministerial meeting where a dozen or more foreign ministers will gather to hammer out the details of a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework.  The proposed Framework would ensure all signatories have access to critical minerals, facilitating greater and freer trade.  Among the confirmed attendees are India, South Korea, Australia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea, and Kenya. 

Finally, we would note that President Trump is scheduled to meet with Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Wednesday.  The aim of the meeting is to de-escalate tensions after Trump snatched Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and began to bicker with Petro over drug interdiction policy.  A positive outcome of the meeting would further solidify Trump's policy of greater US engagement and influence in the Hemisphere.

Turning to Asia, on Sunday, Japan heads to the voting booth after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called snap elections.  Polls suggest Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could score a landslide victory (estimates put it at more than 233 of the total 465 seats), giving her a strong hand to push forward with her “proactive” fiscal policy focused on bigger spending and tax cuts. 

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big events are in Frankfurt and London, respectively, as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet to consider further interest rate cuts.  Both are expected to hold off on any further rate cuts. 

In the US, the major economic releases this week include the jobs report on Friday.  This follows the JOLTS report (Tuesday) and the ADP report (Wednesday).  Also, out this week are the ISM indices on Monday (manufacturing) and Wednesday (services), and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.  

In Europe, the January CPIs for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain are out this week.  Germany releases factor order and industrial production figures this week.  And we will also see retail sales and trade figures for most major Eurozone countries.

In Asia this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide on interest rates.  China releases January PMIs on Saturday, and in Japan, the Bank of Japan releases its summary of recent interest rate deliberations.  

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held virtually.

·       The UK assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

·       The Arctic Frontiers Conference is held in Tromso, Norway.

·       The International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit begins in Porto, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents the country's annual budget for the fiscal year starting in April, with the focus likely to be on fields such as infrastructure development, green energy and steps to boost export competitiveness amid U.S. President Donald Trump's punishing 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Union Budget 2026

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The second round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is scheduled to begin in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 2, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy before the Atlanta Rotary Club.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (January)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (January)/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

·       EARNINGS: Palantir, Disney, Tysons Food

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The travel period for China's Spring Festival celebrations will commence and last through March 13th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)/ Commodity Prices (January)

·       Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q4/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Central Japan Railway, East Japan Railway

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Oslo Security Conference is held through February 3rd in Oslo, Norway.

·       French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu will face his third and last set of no-confidence votes in the National Assembly over his decision to pass the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Internal Market and Industry), through February 3rd in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech entitled “Talking ‘bout Next Generation” at the City & Financial Payments Regulation and Innovation Summit 2026 in London.

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Germany Retail Sales (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (December)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ BoE Jackson Speech/ Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Julius Baer

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Saudi Capital Markets Forum begins in New York and runs through February 3rd.  The country formally is opening its markets to foreign investors today.

·       The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is scheduled to open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Data Centres Association hosts a conference on cloud and data centers in Tunis through February 3rd.

·        

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Global

·       The World Governments Summit begins in Dubai and runs through February 5th.  International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is among the speakers.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.

·       Netflix Inc. Co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos will testify before the US Senate’s antitrust subcommittee on Tuesday, taking the stage to assuage politicians’ concern about his company’s $82.7 billion deal for Warner Bros. and HBO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the SC First Steps “Early Advantage: Foundations for South Carolina's Economic Vitality" event.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman takes part in a moderated conversation at the WSJ Invest Live event in New York

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Industrial Production (December)

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)/Redbook (January/31)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ JOLTs Job Quits (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/30)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Colombia Exports (December)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Amgen, Emerson Electric, Clorox, PepsiCo, Paypal, Pfizer, Prudential Financial, Willis Towers Watson, LATAM Airlines, Merck

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Singapore Airshow begins and runs through Sunday.  More than 1000 aerospace and defense companies from 50 countries will participate.

·       The Chinese Communist Party and Taiwan's Kuomintang party will recommence party-to-party talks, suspended in 2016, in China through February 4th.

·       The Indonesia Economic Summit, hosted by the Indonesia Business Council, holds a two-day annual event in Jakarta, inviting global business leaders and policymakers to discuss industry challenges for the development of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (January)

·       Japan Monetary Base

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Interest Rates and holds Press Conference/Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (December)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       EARNINGS: Nintendo, West Japan Railway, Mitsubishi Electronic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal video conference among EU Housing Ministers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at the Afore Consulting 10th Annual FinTech and Regulation Conference in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania PPI (December)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (January)/ Budget Balance (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (January)

·       EARNINGS: Publicis Groupe

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

·       Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mozambican Heroes Day, a national holiday.

·       Solar energy executives gather in Nairobi for the Intersolar Africa business summit.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts a Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington DC with multiple foreign ministers attending.  The State Department is circulating a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework for attending countries to sign.

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify  before the House Financial Services Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

·       The New START Treaty expires.  The US and Russia treaty helped restrict the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

·       “The Muppet Show” returns being shown on ABC and Disney+. American culture is saved.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/30)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/30)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity (January)/ ISM Services Employment (January)/ ISM Services New Orders (January)/ ISM Services Prices (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/30)/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Alphabet, Boston Scientific, Eli Lilly, Fox Corp, Johnson Controls McKesson, Stanley Black & Decker, Qualcomm, T Rowe Price, Uber

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones holds a fireside chat at the Investment Magazine 2026 Chair Forum.

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q4/ Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (January)/ Ai Group Construction Index (January)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (January)

·       China RatingDog Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/23)

·       EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Panasonic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in an informal dinner and exchange of views with Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security as well as Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency, in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)/ PPI (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (January)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

·       EARNINGS: UBS, Credit Agricole, Handelsbanken, Santander, Watches of Switzerland

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       There is nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Angola Liberation Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Global

·       Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify  before the Senate Banking Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on monetary policy and navigating the economic environment after graduation at event hosted by the Clark Atlanta University School of Business.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Toronto.

·       Mexican Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/31)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/05)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/04)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (January)

·       Colombia PPI (January)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Amazon, Allstate, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardinal Health, Cigna, Compass, ConocoPhillips, KKR, Hershey, MetLife, News Corp, Thomson Reuter

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysia Economic Forum begins in Kuala Lumpur. The forum will feature Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Siri founder and former Chief Technology Officer Tom Gruber, and senior figures from the private sector, including banking and capital market leaders. 

·       The ASEAN Treasury Forum takes place in Manila, Philippines through February 6th.

·       The 17th East Asia Conference on Competition Law and Policy, a two-day event hosted by Asian Development Bank Institute, begins in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/31)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

·       Indonesia Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Singapore Retail Sales (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       EARNINGS: Nippon Steel, Suzuki, Motor, Sony

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be in informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through February 6th in Brussels.

·       Today is Liberation Day San Marino.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Romania Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (December)

·       France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (January)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: BNP, Vodafone, BBVA, Maersk, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Burundi Unity Day, a national holiday.

·       The RiseUp Summit, focused on startups, meets at the Grand Egyptian Museum in Cairo

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, February 6, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Winter Olympics begin in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy and runs through February 22nd.

·       FAO Food Price Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US is tentatively scheduled to hold talks with Iranian officials in Istanbul on Iran’s nuclear program.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook and supply-side inflation dynamics at a conference entitled:  Supply-Side Factors and Inflation: What Have We Learned? Being hosted by The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Ivey PMI s.a (January)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Used Car Prices (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

·       Colombia Cement Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Kazuyuki Masu gives a speech before local leaders in Ehime, Japan.

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Household Spending (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ BoJ Masu Speech/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Property Price Index Q4

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (January/23)/ Deposit Growth (January/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (January)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Toyota

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech on the digital euro at an event organized by MEP Michalis Hadjipantela in Cyprus.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Member ECB Martin Kocher speaks at the Club of Business Journalists in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the National MC Agency Briefing.

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ GDP (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       EARNINGS: Societe Generale, Skanska

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 7, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA may launch a three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.  This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

·       Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds lower house elections.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position.  More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

·       Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

US – Russia Negotiations with Ukraine Continue, ASEAN Leaders to Hold Emergency Meeting on Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict, the US Puts Further Pressure on Venezuela, and Global Markets Are Quiet This Week

The world is quickly sliding into the Christmas week, hoping for peace and goodwill everywhere.  Two examples of that are the ongoing talks led by US Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who held yet another round of talks with Russian negotiators in Miami yesterday, seeking a Ukraine peace deal.  While the Trump Administration is suggesting that some small gains are being made, their Russian counterparts say nothing is moving.  And from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address and question-and-answer call-in session last week, Russia has no intention of ending this war until it has achieved total victory over Ukraine.  More talks are being scheduled in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers are gathering in Kuala Lumpur this week to see if they can de-escalate the growing conflict between Cambodia and Thailand.  Recall President Trump announced earlier this month that he had negotiated a ceasefire, but that has since broken down as the two sides blame each other for renewed fighting on the border.   At the time of this writing, reports indicate that the two sides have again agreed to meet to discuss a new ceasefire.

Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to escalate, with the US Naval and Coast Guard forces seizing a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.  All three tankers are known to be flying false flags of operation and being part of a larger Venezuelan black market oil sales in contravention of sanctions on the country.  One interesting aspect of the US pressure campaign is how this is negatively impacting Cuba, which has been a strong supporter – politically and militarily – of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s regime.  As the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, the Cuban regime’s economy is close to collapse, with widespread blackouts and an estimated 25 percent of the population having fled the country in recent months.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, with the Christmas holiday, there isn't much that markets are watching for in terms of data releases or central bank action.  The big events in the US will be the release of the delayed Q3 GDP, October durable goods orders, and November industrial production, all coming out on Tuesday.   Also out on Tuesday will be the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for December.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will give a speech on Christmas Day on the Japanese economic outlook.   And in Europe, there are no significant data releases scheduled.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week.  We hope you have a very Merry Christmas!

Sunday, December 21, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian and US negotiators, led by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, meet in Miami to talk further about a peace deal in Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting an informal meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States in St. Petersburg through December 22.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

·       Today is São Tomé Day, a national holiday in the African nation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Economic Activity (October)

·       Canada PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (October)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia hosts a special ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting on Thailand–Cambodia border tensions.

·       China's legislature will convene through Dec. 27 to consider 14 bills, including revisions to the Foreign Trade Law that would expand trade countermeasures.

· Japan’s Niigata Assembly meets to vote on restarting reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear plant.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q3/   Inflation Rate (November)

·       India Infrastructure Output (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Current Account Q3/ Business Investment Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)/ Central Government Debt (November)

·       Greece Current Account (October)

·       Italy PPI (November)

·       Poland Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, a national holiday.

·       The annual Africa and Diaspora Integration Summit convenes in Lagos, Nigeria.

·       The  International Conference on African Studies and Global Africa meets in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security, including the rising tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Office of the US Trade Representative is expected to deliver a Section 301 investigative report on Chinese domination of the semiconductor industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (December)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (October)/ GDP Prel (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Corporate Profits Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Redbook (December/20)/ Industrial Production (October and November)/ Capacity Utilization (October and November)/ Manufacturing Production (October and November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Shipments Index (December)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/19)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (October)/ Imports (October)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q3

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

·       Argentina Current Account Q3

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the birthday of Japanese Emperor Akihito, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Index (October)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (November)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany Import Prices (November)

·       Hungary Current Account Q3

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Federal Government is closed per an Executive Order by President Trump in celebration of Christmas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile PPI (November)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (November)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/19)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/20)/ 15- and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

·       Canada Budget Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Economic Index (October)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/12)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (October)/ Industrial Production (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 25, 2025 

Global

·       It is Christmas Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to the Councilors of Keidanren.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/20)/ Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Federal Government is shut in honor of Christmas per an Executive Order issued by President Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (November)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q3

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/26)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (October)

·       Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Vietnam Mobility Show will take place in Hanoi through December 28 with a focus on electric cars and motorbikes including hybrids. Companies are expected to offer discounts and test drives, while exhibitors will provide demonstrations on charging electric vehicles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production Prel (November)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore           Industrial Production (November)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (December/12)/ Deposit Growth (December/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ivory Coast holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Myanmar holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Central African Republic holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Guinea holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.