The Global Week Ahead
The US and Iran Negotiations Suspended as Fighting Resumes, Japan’s Prime Minister Goes to India, the First Tri-Lateral USMC Negotiations Begin, and Central Bankers Gather in Portugal
June 28 - July 5, 2026
The Iran War appears to be back on as US and Iranian military action escalated in the last two days following Iran’s attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. US Forces conducted strikes against Iranian missile, drone, and radar facilities following an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, shattering the Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 18th.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded to the US attack with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. The IRGC has now threatened to halt “all ongoing diplomatic processes,” hardening Tehran’s posture and likely seeking to recalibrate its negotiating leverage. Technical negotiations were expected to begin this week in Luzerne, Switzerland, after last week’s signing of a memorandum of understanding, but appear to have been canceled.
Additionally, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will exercise sole management and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz for the next 30 days before allowing full traffic to resume. What happens next is anyone’s guess, as Oman and Qatar are trying to de-escalate the fighting and get the negotiations back on track. We see Iran’s strike on the ship as strangely self-defeating, as Iran was beginning to benefit from the US lifting sanctions on Iran’s selling and shipping oil.
All this comes as Israel and Lebanon implement a new framework agreement (along with the US) establishing the Military Coordination Group for Lebanon (MCG4L). The framework requires the Israeli Defense Forces to make a partial pullback from “pilot zones” in Lebanon - sequenced Israeli withdrawals linked to the Lebanese Army deploying in their place, along with Hezbollah disarming.
However, Hezbollah has rejected the deal as “null and void. They have already begun blocking streets in southern Beirut with burning tires. We are watching to see if the Israeli pilot zone withdrawals trigger Hezbollah military responses and attacks on Israeli forces and Israel itself. Additionally, there is concern over whether the Lebanese Army deployment will proceed on schedule.
Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is making an important trip to India this week to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the 16th annual leaders’ summit. Takaichi is seeking to build stronger cooperation between the two countries on a host of economic security issues, including critical mineral and energy supplies. Perhaps more importantly, Takaichi is seeking to strengthen defense cooperation between the two nations to deter potential Chinese threats to key shipping straits critical to both India and Japan.
Closer to home, the US, Mexico, and Canada will meet virtually on July 1st for the first time to conduct a trilateral meeting on the USMCA. Without an agreement, the USMCA would go into annual reviews. This is the first mandatory joint review under USMCA’s sunset/review provision—a mechanism without precedent in prior U.S. trade agreements. A successful joint review is critical in order to shore up confidence in the agreement and the broader trilateral economic relationship. will use the session to establish working groups and timelines for deeper negotiations through the end of 2026.
Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be listening carefully to the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal. This will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s first public event internationally and second overall public appearance.
In the US, labor market data will be the main focus of markets this week. The May JOLTS report is out Tuesday, the June ADP on Wednesday, and the US federal jobs report on Thursday. Also out this week is the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index and the ISM manufacturing index.
In Asia this week, China reports June PMIs on Tuesday and Japan releases May retail sales on Monday and industrial production on Tuesday.
And in Europe this week, the Eurozone’s CPI flash estimate is out on Tuesday (the headline indicator most watched by the ECB for monetary policy decisions), and the June manufacturing PMIs are out on Wednesday. Germany, France, and Italy release CPI data on Tuesday. The UK publishes its bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys on Thursday.
Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:
Sunday, June 28, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The great comic genius Mel Brooks turns 100 years old. And he has a new movie coming out in 2027: Spaceballs: the New One
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· USA Fed Barkin Speech
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· New Caledonia holds parliamentary elections.
· Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, will hold a gubernatorial election.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)
· Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speech
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· NATO’s Parliamentary Summit is held in Istanbul, Turkey.
· Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.
· The United Russia Party held its annual convention. President Vladimir Putin wished the party good luck in the election, calling the electoral process a test of strength for the political system. During the congress, party leader Dmitry Medvedev proposed including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin in the federal top five candidates. Also happening today, the Rodina party’s election convention took place, at which the party list was approved, comprising 15 people headed by Aleksey Zhuravlyov, as well as candidates for single-mandate constituencies.
· Likely incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is scheduled to give a major economic speech in Manchester outlining his agenda.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
The new Israel-Lebanon Framework Deal which was signed on June 26th goes into effect. The deal is aimed at paving the way for an eventual peace deal between the two long-time Middle East adversaries. The agreement includes a pilot effort in which Lebanese soldiers take control of some small areas currently held by Israeli troops, as well as a process aimed at disarming the Hezbollah terror group. However, Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire deal, saying it calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon as a precondition. The implementation of the framework is beginning this week with initial IDF withdrawals from pilot zones north and south of the Litani River.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Monday, June 29, 2026
Global
· The United Nations 4th Counter-Terrorism Week takes place in New York through July 2nd. ministers and heads of national counter-terrorism agencies, as well as regional organizations, United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Coordination Compact entities, civil society organizations, victims of terrorism, women- and youth-led organizations, academia and the private sector.
· In Bangkok, Thailand, the 7th Global Conference on Climate and SDG Synergies will take place from 29-30 June. The event is co-organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in partnership with the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
· The International Energy Agency holds its 11th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency in Montreal, Canada through June 30th.
· The UN Security Council will meet to discuss the situation in the Middle East.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Supreme Court is expected to issue the final decisions of its term on cases including whether President Donald Trump can restrict birthright citizenship and whether he can oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Decisions on Monday and potentially another day this week.
· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is set to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. They will discuss the situation in the Middle East and prep for the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey July 7th.
· The US Senate is out of session for a two-week break. The US House of Representatives is in session until Thursday and out of session the following week.
· The 2026 Mercosur Presidential Summit and associated meetings of the Common Market Council will be held in Asunción, Paraguay through July 30th. The summit focuses on advancing the bloc’s external trade agenda and follows the historic signing of the sweeping EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement in January. The main focus will be on the internal distribution of export quotas from the historic EU-Mercosur trade agreement. According to recent statements from Uruguay’s Foreign Minister Mario Lubetkin, quota distribution among member states will dominate much of the debate. The EU trade deal entered provisional force on May 1, 2026, after more than 25 years of negotiations, with tariff reductions covering 95% of Mercosur products and 91% of EU products.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Brazil Bank Lending (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ IGP-M Inflation (June)
· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)
· Argentina Economic Activity ABR
· EARNINGS: AeroVironment
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· South Korea’s presidential office will announce three “megaprojects” expected to involve massive investment in a new semiconductor production cluster in the country’s southwest. Local media have reported that Samsung Group will be a major investor, as the tech giant seeks to expand production to ride the chip boom.
· The Japanese Diet will begin considering legislation that would create a second capital. The legislation was introduced by Japan’s ruling LDP and Japan Innovation Party. The aim is to have a capital that would back up Tokyo’s core functions during disasters or emergencies and decentralize power. The bill supports JIP’s Osaka-focused restructuring agenda, while a separate proposal would cut 45 proportional representation seats if lawmakers fail to agree on reductions within a year.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Japan Retail Sales (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/Construction Orders (May)
· Tawain Consumer Confidence (June)
· Malaysia PPI (May)
· India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)
· Australia RBA Kent Speech
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao visits Brussels through June 30th for high-level talks with EU officials on China-EU trade relations, market access, and ongoing tariff disputes.
· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Luxembourg.Ministers will discuss cyber violence against girls, housing and demographics, and fair labor mobility.
· The Athens Defense Conference begins and runs through June 30.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· The European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 begins in Sintra, Portugal and runs through July 1st. The event brings together both central banker from around the world and will be the first time new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak publicly (Wednesday). For a full list of attendees, click HERE. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will open the event with a welcoming speech.
· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill: Panel at Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan monetary policy dialogue in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
· Euro Area Loans to Companies (May)/ Loans to Households (May)/M3 Money Supply (May)/ Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech
· Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)
· Spain Inflation Rate (June)/Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (June)
· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)
· Slovenia Retail Sales (May)
· UK BoE Consumer Credit (May)/ Mortgage Approvals (May)/ Mortgage Lending (May)/ M4 Money Supply (May)/ Net Lending to Individuals (May)/ BoE Pill Speech
· Greece Total Credit (May)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, June 30, 2026
Global
· US and Iran technical negotiations are scheduled to resume in Lucerne, Switzerland. However, the meetings may be cancelled due to renewed military strikes by Iran and the US.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Election primaries are scheduled to be held in Colorado and Arkansas.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ PPI (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)
· Canada GDP (April)/ GDP (May)
· Costa Rica Current Account Q1
· Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)
· USA S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/House Price Index (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ Chicago PMI (June)/ JOLTs Job Openings (May)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (May)/ Redbook (June/27)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat (June)/ API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (June/26)
· Columbia Business Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)
· Paraguay Current Account Q1
· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q1
· Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)
· EARNINGS: Nike, Constellation Brands, Progress Software
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)
· Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Industrial Production (May)
· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (June)
· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ PPI (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2
· Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes released/Australia Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)
· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/NBS General PMI (June)
· Thailand Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption (May)/ Private Investment (May)/ Retail Sales (April)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)
· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)
· India Government Budget Value (May)/ External Debt Q1
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets her Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Baku.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (June)/ Current Account Q1/Nationwide Housing Prices (June)/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/
· Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech
· Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/Unemployed Persons (June)/ Unemployment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (June)/Bavaria CPI (June)/ Brandenburg CPI (June)/ Hesse CPI (June)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (June)/ Saxony CPI (June)/Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)
· Hungary Balance of Trade (May)/ PPI (May)
· Spain Current Account (April)
· France Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Household Consumption (May)/ PPI (May)
· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)
· Turkey Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Imports/Exports (May)/ Participation Rate (May)
· Poland Inflation Rate (June)
· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)
· Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Italy PPI (May)
· Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)
· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)
· Serbia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)
· Ukraine Current Account (May)
· EARNINGS: Collins Foods, Sainsbury’s
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· The Gaza Board of Peace meets in Cyprus.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Jordon Industrial Production (April)
· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Congo, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
Global
· The Democratic Republic of Congo assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.
· The OECD hosts the Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum in Paris, Francie through July 2nd.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the official deadline for the US, Mexico and Canada to decide whether to extend the USMCA trade agreement for another 16 years (and which will not be met as negotiations are ongoing). However, trade representatives from all three countries will hold their first trilateral talks, and the deal will enter into a cycle of yearly reviews until an agreement is reached.
· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will undertake an official visit to Canada through July 4.
· Today is Canada Day, commemorating the anniversary of the Constitution Act of 1867. Financial markets and banks are closed.
· St. Lucia assumes the chairmanship of CARICOM (Caribbean Community).
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal.
· USA Challenger Job Cuts (June)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (June/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/26)/ ADP Employment Change (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (June)/ Construction Spending (May)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (June)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (June/26)
· Mexico Business Confidence (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)
· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (May)/ Current Account Q1
· Peru Inflation Rate (June)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (June)
· Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speech
· EARNINGS: Constellation Brands, General Mills, FactSet Research Systems, MSC Industrial Direct, UniFirst, National Beverage, Greenbrier Companies
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will make her first visit to India since taking office last year. The trip comes as Japanese businesses increase their investments in India, and more than 50 companies, including Suzuki Motor, Itochu and Toyota Tsusho, will accompany the prime minister. he two looking to deepen economic and security ties with China in mind. Takaichi was initially set to visit the northeastern state of Assam, but now she will only visit New Delhi due to time constraints.
· Hong Kong observes the Special Administrative Region Establishment day, marking the day I 1997 when the UK transferred power over Hong Kong to China.
· Today is the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.
· The Japanese government will cut passport application fees for its citizens by up to half. Meanwhile, it will raise visa issuance fees for foreign visitors for the first time in about 50 years. Fees for single-entry visas will increase from 3,000 yen ($18) to 15,000 yen, and for multiple-entry visas, from 6,000 yen to 30,000 yen. The departure tax, applied to both Japanese and foreign nationals, will also be raised from 1,000 yen to 3,000 yen.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (June)/ Ai Group Construction Index (June)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (June)/ Commodity Prices (June)
· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q2/ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q2/ Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q2/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)
· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Bank Lending (May)
· Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)
· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)
· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Ireland takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union until the end of the year.
· The European Commission is scheduled to present “Defense Single Market: EU Technological Basi Fit for Future” – the strategic plan creating a foundation for a unified defense market. The plan is expected to remove fragmented barriers, mitigate external supply-chain dependencies, and boost cross-border industrial cooperation across member states.
· The European Parliament’s Industry, Research and Energy Committee will vote on a proposal to accelerate permit-granting procedures for energy infrastructure projects, such as transmission and distribution grids, and storage and recharging stations, as well as renewable energy projects. The aim is to help lower electricity prices and help the EU transition towards a more sustainable and decarbonized energy system.
· The European Parliament publishes the latest edition of Eurobarometer. The survey covers EU citizens’ feelings about the future and their expectations of the EU, as well as a range of issues, including: the role of the EU in the current global context and in protecting Europeans; key citizen priorities and values; and how citizens view the European Parliament, the EU and EU membership
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
· Switzerland Retail Sales (May)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Inflation Rate Flash (June)/ CPI Flash (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking/ ECB Vujčić Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech
· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Unemployment Rate (May)
· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech
· Russia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ Corporate Profits (April)/ Real Wage Growth (April)/ Retail Sales (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Bank Lending (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Burundi celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
· Ghana celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Kenya Inflation Rate (June)
· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q2/ Budget Balance (May)/ABSA Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (June)
Thursday, July 2, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· France and its G7 partners will convene a regional security conference in Martinique in July 2026, marking a major step forward in international coordination. The conference will assemble nations from across the Caribbean and G7 partners to establish a maritime task force and step up the fight against drug trafficking and transnational crime.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· U.S. Bond Markets will close early in advance of the Independence Day holiday.
· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks in moderated discussion at Banco de España conference Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, Santander, Spain.
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June)/ Industrial Production (May)
· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/27)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Average Weekly Hours (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/20)/ Government Payrolls (June)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (June/27)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (June)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (June)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (June)/ Factory Orders (May)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/26)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/02)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/02)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/03)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/03)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/01)/ Total Vehicle Sales (June)
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)
· Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)
· EARNNGS: Levi’s, Lindsay
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Building Permits (May)
· South Korea Inflation Rate (June)
· Japan Monetary Base/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/27)
· Australia Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)
· Sri Lanka Current Account Q1
· Thailand Business Confidence (June)
· Hong Kong Retail Sales (May)
· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The European Court of Justice is expected to rule on Alphabet unit Google’s fight against a record fine levied by EU antitrust regulators eight years ago for using its Android mobile operating system to block rivals.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give an introductory statement at the ECON hearing of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.
· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a speech and participate in a panel discussion “The Role of Central Banks in the Fight Against Climate Change: Current State and Outlook” at 7th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists (WCERE) in Lisbon, Portugal.
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a discussion followed by a moderated discussion at Generali Executive Series in Milan, Italy.
· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann participates in a fireside chat at the Natixis CIB Conference on Private Debt in London.
· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (June)
· Spain New Car Sales (June)/ Bonos y Obligaciones Auction
· Italy New Car Registrations (June)/ Unemployment Rate (May)
· Romania PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (June)
· France Budget Balance (May)
· Spain Unemployment Change (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/26)
· EARNINGS: Baltic Classifieds Group, Currys, FastPartner
· Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Algeria holds national assembly elections.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)
· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (June)
Friday, July 3, 2026
Global
· World FAO Food Price Index (June)
· The United Nations is closed today for an official holiday.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)
· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (June)
· Columbia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)
· Australia S&P Global Composite PMI (June)
· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)
· Japan S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)
· Singapore S&P Global PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)
· China RatingDog Services PMI (June)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (June)
· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)
· India HSBC Composite PMI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/26)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Belarus.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion with António Costa at 26th Les Rencontres Économiques d’Aix-en-Provence 2026 “Navigating a World of Uncertainty” in Aix-en-Provence, France.
· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on a panel at Les Rencontres Economiques Conference entitled ‘Fiscal and monetary policy: An impossible coordination?’ in Aix-en-Provence, France.
· Ireland AIB Services PMI (June)
· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)
· France New Car Registrations (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)
· Russia GDP (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)
· Spain Industrial Production (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ Consumer Confidence (May)
· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)
· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)
· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech
· Slovenia Balance of Trade (May)/
· UK DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (June)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iran will hold the official funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamani in Tehran. He was killed by Israeli airstrikes at the beginning of the Iran War. His body will lie in state at the Iman Khomeini Prayer Hall at the Grand Mosalla in Tehran through July 5th. On July 6th, there will be a public funeral procession through the streets of Tehran. Then his body will be transferred to the holy city of Qom on July 7th. On July 8th, there will be a transnational symbolic procession in the Iraqi holy cities of Najaf and Karbala. His body will then be transferred on July 9th back to Iran for burial at the Iman Reza Shrine in Mashad.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Jordan PPI (April)
· UAE S&P Global PMI (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Ghana Inflation Rate (June)
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)
· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q1
Saturday, July 4, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence and the establishment of the United States of America.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Republic Day in the Philippines, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Slovakia holds a referendum on whether to cancel life payments for leaders after their terms expire.
· The 33rd Annual Session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly will take place from 4 to 8 July 2026 at the World Forum Convention Center in The Hague, Netherlands.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Russia Vehicle Sales (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Liberation Day in Rwanda, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, July 5, 2026
Global
· The OPEC+ meeting will be held virtually. The group is expected to agree to another 411,000 b/d crude quota increase for August at the meeting, as it capitalizes on seasonal demand to bring barrels back to market.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The CARICOM Heads of Government Meeting takes place in Saint Lucia.
· Venezuela celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when in 1811 Spanish rule was thrown off.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Valiant Shield, a joint-military exercise of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, takes place in Guam.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Armenia celebrates Independence Day.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Algeria celebrates Independence Day.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Looking at the Weeks Ahead
· July 7 – 8: The NATO Summit will be held in Ankara, Turkey.
· July 23: The 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum takes place in Manila, the Philippines.
· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.
· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.