CORRECTED: The Global Week Ahead

China Holds the 4th Party Plenum, Japan Elects a New Prime Minister, Rubio to Meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, the ASEAN Summit Begins, and It’s a Big Earnings Week

October 19 - 26, 2025

It is going to be a week of momentous meetings, likely to set the direction for a number of issues globally for the coming year.  First, the Chinese Communist Party is holding its 4th Party Plenum in Beijing.  The meetings come at a critical time for China as the economy continues to struggle to regain its footing, eight senior military officials were either arrested or kicked out of the Party last week, and President Xi continues to battle President Trump over tariffs and access to rare earth minerals.

Meanwhile, following President Trump’s meeting Friday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov in Budapest to resume discussions on how to bring either a ceasefire or an outright end to the war in Ukraine.  Late this weekend, it was reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone call with President Trump this past week, reiterated his demand that Ukraine surrender large portions of occupied land in return for peace.  Trump reportedly, in turn, urged Zelensky to consider the terms.  Trump also denied Zelenskyy and Ukrainian military forces access to the much-sought Tomahawk missiles.

In the Middle East this week, Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to travel to Israel Tuesday to push for further implementation of the Gaza peace agreement while US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trum[‘s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected to meet with Qatari and Israeli representatives on the next steps on the shaky plan.  The past week saw continued violence in Gaza as Hamas began going after rival factions, executing dozens of fighters and leaders as they struggle to retain some semblance of control in the region.

This coming Sunday, the ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.  President Trump is expected to attend and preside over the peace signing ceremony between Thailand and Cambodia.   Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss ways to de-escalate new tensions between the US and China, which sprang back up last week when China announced a new ban on critical mineral sales globally.

This all comes in advance of a much-hoped-for meeting between Trump and President Xi in two weeks at a second ASEAN Summit, this time being held in Gyeongju, South Korea between October 31-November 1.  But there is concern in the markets about the meeting and if it might be called off at the last meeting as much depends on how well the meeting between Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He go.

Also happening this week will be the election of Japan’s new Prime Minister on Tuesday.  It appears that Sanae Takaichi has successfully put together a new coalition with Japan’s Innovation Party with her Liberal Democratic Party, which will make her Japan’s first female prime minister.  She will attend the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur and then meet with President Trump on October 27-29 in Japan to discuss finalizing a trade deal and then attend the second ASEAN Summit in South Korea on October 31.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big event will be in the US, where, despite the ongoing government shutdown, government economists have been called back to work to assemble the September CPI numbers for release on Friday.   All other government data releases are being delayed because of the shutdown so markets remain dependent on private sector data. The Conference Board releases its leading index on Monday, and the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment report on Friday.  Canada’s CPI is out Tuesday.

Turning to Europe, markets will be listening closely to several speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.  Also, the UK will be releasing September inflation figures on Wednesday and retail sales and consumer confidence numbers on Friday.  Germany and France have manufacturing PMIs on Friday. 

In Asia, China will be releasing Q3 GDP and September economic figures on Monday.  Japan releases trade data on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.  And South Korea’s central bank interest rate decision is on Thursday.

Finally, we would note this is going to be a big earnings announcement week as market participants will get a deeper understanding of how the trade wars and the risk of inflation are impacting corporations globally.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

·       The EU-Iraq Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Government shutdown is expected to continue throughout the week ahead.

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travels to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump, their first face-to-face meeting. Albanese is expected to seek reassurances over America's commitment to the AUKUS submarine deal and promote access to Australia's strategic materials such as rare earths as leverage in the talks with the American leader.

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Hungary to discuss Ukraine.

·       Today is Heroes’ Day in Jamaica, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA CB Leading Index (September)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China holds the 4th Chinese Communist Party Plenum in Beijing.  The four-day forum will discuss the country’s next five-year plan.

· In Vietnam, the National Assembly holds its winter session, which lasts until December 11.  They are expected to discuss 49 laws and 4 resolutions -- a record number. Vietnam, one of the fastest-growing economies, is ramping up wide-ranging reforms that the government expects will help fuel double-digit economic growth in 2026, up from an expected 8% in GDP growth this year.

·       Diwali is celebrated in India through October 25.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (October)/ House Price Index (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Communist Party Fourth Plenum        

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan.

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The Foreign Ministers will discuss the state of the War in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the EU-Indo-Pacific relations.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Luxembourg.

·       European Commission President  Ursula von der Leyen participates in the Summit of Southern European Union countries (MED-9) in Portorož, Slovenia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at WE_ARE_IN conference in Frankfurt. European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Boris Vujcic attend a roundtable in New York.

·       Germany PPI (September)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area Current Account (August)/Construction Output (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Slovakia Current Account (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)/ M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q3

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TVV meeting on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve holds its Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C.  Federal  Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/18)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/17)    

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (August)/ Imports (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Costa Rica          Balance of Trade (September)

·       EARNINGS: Netfilx, GE, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, Capital One, Danaher, Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, 3M, General Motors, EQT, Equifax, PulteGroup, Haliburton

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Diet will vote on who will be the next Prime Minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Credit Card Spending (September)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/21)          

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks on a panel at the ISDA/AFMA Derivatives Trading Forum in Sydney.

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)             

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia is expected to begin 10-days of naval exercises in the Pacific in waters close to South Korea and Japan.

·       The Helsinki Security Forum takes place in Helsinki.  The event brings together experts and decision-makers to explore European security and defense.  It will also address how Europe can boost its competitiveness, invest in Defence, and shape its security order. High-level delegates are expected to attend, and participants include representatives from the Defence industry, research institutions, and government bodies.

·       The EU-Uzbekistan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They will discuss the Multiannual Financial Framework 2028-2034, Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary, and other issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote address at the Norges Bank's Climate Conference followed by moderated discussion with Al Gore in Oslo, Norway.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the House of Lords' Financial Services Regulation Committee on the growth in private markets in the UK following reforms introduced after the 2008 financial crisis.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements DLT Innovation Challenge Showcase in London.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (September)

·       Greece Current Account (August)

·       Slovenia PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The ISS/Africa Futures Conference 2025 takes place online.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)       

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial inclusion at the Crossing the Credit Barrier Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/17)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/17)      

·       Mexico Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (August)/ Leading Indicator (September)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, SAP, IBM, Thermo Fisher, AT&T, UniCredit, Barclays, Moody’s, Southwest Airlines, Alcoa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (September)

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan, Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Egypt Summit will be held in Brussels.

·       The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Luxembourg.

·       In London, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosts the 2025 Berlin Process Summit in partnership with Germany. The meeting aims to support stability, security, and economic co-operation in the western Balkan region.

·       The Global Security and Innovation Summit, a two-day event to discuss global security challenges and to explore new security technology, opens in Hamburg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the  Frankfurt Finance & Future Summit in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a talk at the Barcelona Real Assets Meeting 2025 in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods gives a speech at the Annual City Banquet at Mansion House in London.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)/ BoE Woods Speech

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Russia Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva travels to Indonesia and Malaysia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will testify before the  U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Retail Sales (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (September)   

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (October)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/22)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay PPI (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNNGS: T-Mobile, Blackstone, Intel, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Newmont, Freeport-McMorRan, Ford Motor, Baker Hughes, Dassault Systems, PG&E, Dow, EvolutionAB, Atlas Copco

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/18)            

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (September)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Euro Summit takes place in Brussels. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane accepts the occasion of the conferral of the 2025 Pádraig Ó hUiginn Award to him in Dublin, Ireland.

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee, Jonathan Hall, gives a speech on the Bank of England Financial Committee’s mandate and the search for a social optimum in London.

·       France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)    

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Libya Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The United Nations Organization: Looking into the Future..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will hold an Open Board Meeting.  The Board will consider proposals to enhance the transparency and public accountability of the Board’s stress testing framework and request comments on the scenarios for the Board’s 2026 supervisory stress test.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ Current Account (September)/      Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (October)

·       Chile PPI (September)

·       USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/24)/ New Home Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, NatWest, Saab, Sanofi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech in Sydney/Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)      

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)          

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland holds Presidential elections.

· European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council, meets with Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Uzbekistan, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat titled 'Il nuovo quadro della finanza internationale' at Cambio di Paradigma organized by Il Mattino in Naples, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Francois Villeroy de Galhau speak at the Berlin Global Dialogue.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ Car Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)     

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Zambia's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In  Japan, the Mount Fuji Dialogue begins.  The gathering unites influential government officials and businesspeople from the U.S. and Japan, will be held in Tokyo. Hosted by the Japan Center for Economic Research and the Japan Institute of International Affairs, the annual event comes amid flaring U.S.-China tensions and political uncertainty in Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the 2025 Berlin Global Dialogue in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina holds a referendum in the ethnic Republika Srpska to vote on whether they accept the courts’ decision to convict Milorad Dodik and later to remove him as RS president. Dodik has also stated that a referendum on independence for the Serbian entity might be held at a future date.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ivory Coast holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia.  Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN's 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summer Time – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Peace Comes to Gaza and Hostages Are To Be Released, The US Government Remains Shutdown, China Cuts off Rare Earth Exports, Argentina’s Milei Meets with Trump Again, and The Annual World Bank/IMF Take Place in Washington, DC

October 12 - 19, 2025

It will be a historic week as Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump gather in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to witness the signing of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas brokered by Trump. And, after more than two years of captivity, the remaining Israeli hostages are scheduled to be released on Monday. More than 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and more than 1700 detainees rounded up since Israeli forces entered Gaza are to be released.

The challenge now is to keep the ceasefire going in the second phase of the agreement.  This includes questions about the future governance of Gaza, getting Hamas to disarm, and how to rebuild the devastated region.

Also this week, Argentine President Javier Milei will travel to Washington to meet with President Trump to discuss the newly inked bailout package the US is giving Argentina.  The US Treasury intervened in the Argentine currency market to stabilize the peso.  Milei is hoping to garner further support from Trump as mid-term elections approach in Argentina.

All this comes as China moved to impose tough new export controls on rare earths, lithium-ion batteries, and synthetic diamonds – a move which shocked many countries and triggered President Trump to impose new 100 percent tariffs on China on Friday.  Markets are trying to ascertain how serious and long-term China’s moves are, or if it is merely a negotiating tactic by China’s President Xi in advance of a possible meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN meeting later this month. 

Finally, the US federal government remains shutdown and from all indications, will remain shut down this coming week.  There appears to be little to no real negotiations between Congressional Democrats and Republicans, and the House of Representatives is expected to remain out of session this coming week.  Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has begun laying off federal employees as opposed to furloughing them.  And with the shutdown, a number of US data releases will not be released.

This brings us to this week’s global economic and financial radar screen.  Dominating the week will be the  2025 World Bank/IMF Annual meetings and the many side events being held in Washington – the most important being the Institute for International Finance’s annual member meeting – where numerous central bankers will pop by to give speeches and participate on panels.

Looking at the Americas, with the US federal government shutdown still going on, most major data releases are either being canceled or delayed (leaving the Federal Reserve will remain flying somewhat blind on data in advance of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, October 28 – 29.)   The most important now-delayed release is the September CPI which was scheduled to come out October 15th.  That report has now been rescheduled to October 24.

What is likely to guide markets is the large number of Federal Reserve and regional Fed speeches this week, including Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday.   Also, we would note this week we will see a number of major bank and financial institutions earnings reports including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BlackRock.

 Turning to Europe, we will see Eurozone labor market data releases and the German ZEW Survey on Tuesday, GDP numbers on Thursday, and lots of speeches from European Central Bank board members – including several by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

In Asia this week, the big economic releases will be coming out of China where trade figures are published on Monday and inflation data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Afghan Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqui, will visit India and will reportedly discuss developmental assistance, among other things.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections. President Paul Biya is running for his 8th term in office. If he wins, he will be in office as president until he is 100 years old.

·       Equatorial Guinea celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 13, 2025

 Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting week begins in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil production report.

·       The Nobel Prize in Economics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump travels to Egypt to attend the Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza, negotiated by Trump.

·        

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets are closed.

·       It is Columbus Day in the US.  Stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed, as are most banks, and the US government is closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting," Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.”

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       President Xi Jinping to attend the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders’ Meeting on Women in Beijing, where he will deliver a keynote speech.

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand travels to New Delhi to meet with meets with India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.  Anand then travels to Singapore for a meeting with Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan. From there, Anand travels to China for talks with China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Services NZ PSI (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Inflation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Albania to meet with President Bajram Begaj and Prime Minister Edi Rama.  She will participate in the opening ceremony of the EU-Western Balkans Investment Forum.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with President Jakov Milatovic and Prime Minister Milojko Spajic.

·       The 71st Annual Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly will be held in Ljubljana, Slovenia

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers through October 14 in  Horsens, Denmark.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to discuss the rule of law, the “fight against Russian impunity,” and Eurojust.

·       NATO’s annual two-week nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon will begin in the Netherlands.

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis in Athens, Greece.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene delivers the keynote address at the SPE Annual Conference in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (August)

·       Turkey Current Account (August)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza.

·       The remaining living Israeli hostages in Gaza will likely be released either today or tomorrow as part of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement.

·       President Trump is expected to travel to Jerusalem, Israel, where he will address the Israeli Knesset.

·       Israel celebrates Simchat Torah Eve. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Global

·       The IMF publishes their World Economic Outlook report.

·       The International Energy Agency monthly oil market report is published.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions. In the morning, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

·       The Institute for International Finance Annual Membership meeting begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through October 17. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump is expected to welcome Argentina’s President Javier Milei to the White House. They are expected to discuss the US’s recent bailout of the Argentine economy and regional security issues.

·       The 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber imports from Canada and elsewhere go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers holds a fireside chat at the B.C. Business Summit in Vancouver.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September/Redbook (October/11)

·       Canada Building Permits (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Aeon, BlackRock, BP, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, LVMH, Publicis Groupe, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. and China are due to begin collecting port fees on each other's ships, in an escalating competition for the seas. Washington announced its docking charges earlier this year to challenge Chinese maritime dominance and revive American shipbuilding. On Friday, Beijing said it would respond in kind.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)     

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)

·       China New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing SE

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss civil protection and health preparedness, the Schengen Agreement, Migration and other issues.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina.  She will meet with the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and meet with Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers Borjana Krišto; visits the Srebrenica Memorial Centre.

·       Today is Defender of Ukraine Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives remarks at the ECR Expert Policy conference "What Future for the Digital Euro?" organized by European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum 2025 in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the Ethics and Compliance Conference organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor presents remarks and a fireside chat with FT columnist Gillian Tett at Kings College, Cambridge, on ‘diversion ahead’.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ECB Donnery Speech     

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Romania Current Account (August)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-monitored Gaza-Egypt pedestrian border crossing reopens.

·       Today is Yemen Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings formally begin in Washington, D.C.

·       G7 Finance Ministers are expected to meet in Washington to discuss increasing pressure on Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on “Economic Mobility" before the United Way Regional Summit on Economic Mobility for Children and Youth.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on artificial intelligence at the 2025 D Fintech Week.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/10)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/10)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (August)/ Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Abbot Laboratories, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group., Progressive

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Diet will hold an extraordinary session to elect a new prime minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a fireside chat at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at a Citi conference in Sydney.

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       China Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q3

·       India Unemployment Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) meeting in Brussels. EU Defense Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte chairing the session.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the Arab League Summit in Moscow.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister Đuro Macut.  Later, she travels to Kosovo to meet with President Vjosa Osmani and caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Later in the day, she travels to North Macedonia: to meet with President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova and Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and then meets President of the Assembly Afrim Gashi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening address at the 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.  Later, he gives remarks at the 25th anniversary of Alantra in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel at the IIF Annual Membership meeting in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor, financial stability, Sarah Breeden is a panelist at the Fintech Foundation 2025 DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden speaks in a panel event at the Single Resolution Mechanism 10th Anniversary Conference in Brussels.

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)/ Residential Property Prices (August)            

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Housing Starts (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before a virtual Aiken County Chamber of Commerce event.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Governor Christopher J. Waller, New York, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks at the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference (virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the  Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Risk Management Association.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City.

·       USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October/NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/10)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/15)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/11)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/11)/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Inventories (August)

·       EARNINGS: Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, ABB, CSX, Interactive Brokers, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Marsh McLennan, Nordea Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor, Travelers, United Airlines, US Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Okinawa.

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)/BoJ JGB Purchase/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg.

·       The European Commission will unveil its "Roadmap for Defence Readiness." 

·       The 2025 Arctic Circle Assembly will meet in Iceland.  It is expected that more than 2,000 people representing more than 60 countries will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an IMF's Debate on the Global Economy: Shaping Economic Policies in the Face of Disruptive Change in Washington D.C., USA

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the SSM Conference on Digitalization in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a roundtable discussion "Central Banking and Supervision in a Geopolitically Fragmented World: Risks, Responses, and Cooperation" organized by Toronto Centre in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel panel "Monetary Crosscurrents: Rethinking Frameworks Amid Trade and Policy Fragmentation" at 2025 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Growth and Innovation in an Uncertain World" in Washington D.C.,

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Friday, October 17, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem discusses the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Institute for International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.

·       USA Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Building Permits (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       EARNINGS: American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, Truist Financial, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The KMT, Taiwan's biggest opposition party, chooses a new leader as it seeks a path back to power. The KMT has lost three straight presidential elections to the Democratic Progressive Party, most recently in January 2024. But it enjoys a legislative majority with its smaller partner, the Taiwan People's Party, and it has momentum after vanquishing efforts to recall some of its lawmakers this summer. The winner will be in a position to influence how Taiwan handles cross-strait tensions with China and tricky ties with the U.S..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/11)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore     Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/03)/ Deposit Growth (October/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives remarks and takes questions at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) "Addressing Regulatory Fragmentation" roundtable discussion in Washington D.C.

·       Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Annual Conference.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

·       UN Security Council Resolution 2231 will expire today, unless extended. The Security Council unanimously adopted the resolution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bolivia Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion at Group of Thirty opening panel "Global Economic Outlook" in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollon participates on a panel discussion at Euro50Group meeting in Washington D.C.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

Israeli-Hamas Peace Talks Take a Big Step, Trump Meetings with Canada’s Carney, the EU Parliament Holds No-Confidence Votes, the US Government Looks to Be Shut Another Week, and Markets Await a Flood of Central Bank Speeches

October 5 - 12, 2025

The world is watching events unfold in the Middle East as Hamas appears to be ready to accept a good portion of President Trump’s peace plan proposal, including releasing all remaining hostages (just as we come up on the 2 year anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on Israel).  There are several unresolved points but US negotiators led by Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff are in Egypt now working to finalize the deal but there is real hope the hostages will be released this week.

Also this week, President Trump has invited Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to meet with him at the White House on Tuesday to discuss both trade issues as well as mutual security concerns.  Trade negotiators have been careful not to oversell the outcome of the meeting but there is hope a deal can be struck between the two leaders.

Meanwhile in Washington, the federal government shutdown continues, and House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has announced the House of Representatives will not return to work unless Democrats accept the continuing resolution they passed two weeks ago.  At this point, we do not see a deal emerging soon but there is always hope.

In Europe, the European Parliament is scheduled to hold two no-confidence votes against EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden.  This is the second time no-confidence votes have been brought against von der Leyden in the last three months. While both votes are expected to fail, it shows how split the Parliament is on issues ranging from trade to climate.

Staying in Europe, the Nobel Committee will begin announcing winners of their prestigious prize on Monday.  The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, and the Nobel Prize for Economics will be announced next Monday.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are awaiting a flood of speeches from central bankers.  In the US alone, we count sixteen Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve President speeches over the course of five days, including a speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell. 

And in the EU, we count eleven scheduled European Central Bank (ECB) board member speeches including two from ECB President Christine Lagarde (and more are expected to be announced) plus Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking in Scotland. That is a lot of data for the markets to take in and, in our view, a bit odd considering the week of October 12th is the Annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, DC where there will be countless central bankers speaking.

With the US government shutdown still going, there will be limited economic data releases.  The Federal Reserve releases minutes from their last Open Market Meeting.  And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out Friday.

In Asia, China’s Gold Week holiday continues until October 8th.   Japan, which has just elected its first woman as Prime Minister, releases its Regional Economic Report on Monday and the Consumer Activity Index on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

·       Israel is expected to begin mediated negotiations with Hamas in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Monday, October 6, 2025

Global

·       The Nobel Committee begins announcing winners of prizes. Today’s prize will be for physiology or medicine.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and Peace and Security.

·       The World Trade Organization’s General Council meeting takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court begins a new term, hearing cases.

·       Unless there is a last-minute breakthrough agreement between Congressional Republicans and Democrats over a Continuing Resolution bill, the federal government will remain shut this week and the House of Representatives will stay out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks to CFA Society Kansas City on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Azerbaijan hosts the 12th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament is expected to hold two separate no-confidence vote son European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sometime this week.  Both votes are expected to fail.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Scotland’s Global Investment Summit 2025 being held in Edinburgh.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening remarks at the Diario Expansión: XVI Encuentro Financiero in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2025: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania Retail Sales (August)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (August)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ ECB Lane Speech/ Retail Sales (August)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Serbia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan PPI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (AU).

·       Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event begins and runs through October 8. This will be closely watched by economist for any slowdown in shopping by consumers.

·       The 2025 Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Donald Trump will host Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House for talks on trade.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran

·       Sits for a fireside chat at the Managed Funds Association (MFA) Policy Outlook 2025 in New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran gives a talk at the Deutsche Bank 2025 Fall Macro Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in discussion on the economic outlook at event hosted by Fisk University.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation on artificial intelligence and the economy before the Star Tribune North Star Summit 2025.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Consumer Credit Change (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The FIATA World Congress – global freight forwarders – in Hanoi, Vietnam to discuss various topics, such as challenges in the new global trade landscape and how to navigate them. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is scheduled to attend the event

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q3/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/07)       

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)/ RBA Annual Report 2025

·       Japan Household Spending (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Economic Index (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Motorbike Sales (September)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Singapore     Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech followed by a Q&A session at Business France event 'Business en Européens' in Paris, France.

·       Germany Factory Orders (August)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)/ Treasury Gilt 2028 Tender

·       Hungary Industrial Production August)

·       France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       This is the 2nd anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on civilians in Israel and taking of hostages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Global

·       In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia and the 2713 Committee. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).  

·       In Washington, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain raiser speech for the upcoming 2025 Annual Meetings being held next week.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louise, Missouri.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on community development and Indian Country the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Center for Indian Country Development 10th Anniversary and Data Summit: Braiding the Past and Future of Native Economies, Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (October/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/03)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/03)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Paris Europlace Forum 20254 will take place in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Uedo speaks at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo.

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Bank Lending (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Survey (September)

·       Australia Building Permits (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at 55th anniversary event of the Werner Report "Itinéraires luxembourgeois et européens" in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion at the International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (August)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (September)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).     

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Literature is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Future of Community Banking: Challenges and Opportunities” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis, Minesota.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Looking Toward the Future” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/08)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/04)/ Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)                 

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (September)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg.  The EU Finance Ministers will discuss macroeconomic and fiscal monitoring including preparation for upcoming international meetings.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 10 in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a roundtable discussion and Q&A at the Irish Association of Investment Managers in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)   

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uganda Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Friday, October 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in fireside chat before the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce Public Policy Speaker's Series.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before the 19th annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Charting the Course" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Wages (September)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te is expected to deliver a national day address.

·       Tajikistan will host a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Dushanbe.   They will simultaneously host the 2ndCentral Asia-Russia Summit.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend both events.

·       North Korea is expected to show off its newest weapons at a large military parade to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party. High-ranking officials from China and Russia are expected to participate. The last time North Korea held a large military parade was in July 2023 to mark the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)

·       Australia RBA Bullock Speech/ RBA Kent Speech

·       Japan PPI (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (September)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/26)/ Deposit Growth (September/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit India through October 10th.

·       In Slovenia, the 2025 Nato Parliamentary Assembly Annual Session, where 281 parliamentary members from 32 Nato member states are due to discuss Euro-Atlantic Defence and the continent’s security agenda.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Brussels.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss financing the EU Budget, taxation of tobacco, climate financing, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

·       Greece Industrial Production (August)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Naura holds parliamentary elections and a referendum on the Constitution.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Scottish National party annual three-day conference begins in Aberdeen.

·       In Belfast, Northern Ireland’s Ulster Unionist party annual conference open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds the 2nd round of National Assembly elections.

·       IN the Seychelles, the conclusion of a three-day presidential run-off election after no candidate secured the required 50 per cent majority in the first-round vote, held on September 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit opens, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts the SCO Summit and Celebrates the 80th Anniversary of the End of World War II with World Leaders, Trump’s Tariff Deals in Doubt, and Markets Focus on the Fed’s Beige Book and US Jobs Report

Summer is officially over and world capitals in the Northern Hemisphere are roaring back to work this week.  But the major geopolitical events of the week will be in China. 

President Xi Jinping is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit being held in Tianjin, China.  This will be a particularly important SCO gathering as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other leading Asian leaders will be in attendance and holding sideline meetings with Xi.  Of note, Prime Minister Modi’s sideline meeting with Xi shows continuing warming between the two nations – which has been historically frosty – as both struggle to deal with President Trump’s tough tariff regime. 

After the SCO, Xi will hold an extravaganza 80th anniversary celebration in Beijing marking the end of World War II for China.  Putin, Modi, and at least 28 other national leaders will be in attendance including North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.  The significance of his attendance is it suggests new warming in the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang which has been strained in recent years.

What both events clearly show is a growing alignment between nations that are outright hostile to the United States and the West with those nations hardest hit by the Trump tariffs, giving the combined nations a reason to work together. Seeing the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, India, Iran, Cuba, and other nations sitting together watching an enormous Chinese military parade will drive that point home.  What comes out of these meetings will likely be quite impactful on global markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Here in the US, two issues will be of major focus to markets this week.  First, the decision by a Federal Appeals Court on Friday ruled that President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is illegal.  These were put in place on “Liberation Day” on April 2nd.  The decision upholds an earlier ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and is now likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court.  But in the meantime, it puts into doubt the legality of Trump’s trade deals with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea.  Moreover, it the US Supreme Court upholds this decision, it will mean the Trump Administration will have to repay the billions of tariffs collected since April, estimated at roughly $142 billion.

The second event is the ongoing battle over whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook.  A federal judge on Friday held an emergency hearing on the matter but did not issue a ruling.  Our view is that this battle will go all the way to the Supreme Court and will likely not hold Cook back from voting at the upcoming Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on interest rates later this month.

Turning to look at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, and starting with the US, there will be a number of important reports out this week. The big events will be the Federal Reserve’s release of the Beige Book on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  Also, this week, the ISM indices will be out, giving more clarity on the manufacturing and services sectors, and the JOLTS print on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday.

In Asia, Japan releases Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations for Q2, which is expected to show as much as 3% growth year over year.   In China, the August PMIs are out on Sunday, and manufacturing data is out on Monday, while services data is out on Wednesday.

In Europe, we will see the Eurozone CPI report on Tuesday as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il are expected  to attend.  Putin will afterwards travel to Beijing for meetings with Xi.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Polish Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw and the visit the border between Poland and Belarus. She will then travel to Bulgaria to meet with Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov and visit a defense factor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Oman will implement a "golden visa" for investors and wealthy residents..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 1, 2025

Global

·        Egypt will host a G20 meeting on food security in Cairo.

·       South Korea assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Guyana holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Centre-left President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C) is likely to be re-elected. However, opposition parties will likely secure a majority in the National Assembly (legislature).

·       Today is Labor Day in the United State and Canada. It is a national holiday in both countries.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Mexican judges elected in the country's first judicial election in June will take office.

·       The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission continues its annual meeting in Panama City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Fiscal Balance (July)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs through September 2 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       The EU Parliament returns to work from summer holiday.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Lithuania to meet with President Gitana Nauseda and then visit the Lithuania and Belarus border.  She will then travel to Romania and meet with President Nicusor Dan and Prime Minister Illie Bolojan and visit the military port of Constana.

·       The British Parliament returns to work from their summer holiday.

·       Moldova begins negotiations with the EU about joining.

·       Today is Slovakia Constitution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a dinner speech at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a panel on 'Autonomy through the internal market and the capital markets union' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will chair a panel on 'Resilience, autonomy and cooperation in payments and clearing systems' at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference titled 'Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation' in Frankfurt Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)/ BoE Consumer Credit (July)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary PPI (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Mexico and Ecuador for bilateral meetings through September 4.

·       The US Congress returns to work from its August recess.

·       Brazil's Supreme Court hear legal arguments regarding attempted coup charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA Redbook (August)/30/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will meet with and give remarks to local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Japan.

·       New Zealand Export Prices Q2/ Import Prices Q2/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/02)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (August)

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Thailand Business Confidence (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (August)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will chair a panel on 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel entitled 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Flash (August)/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Italy PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lebanese Armed Forces will present a plan for Hezbollah's disarmament to Lebanon's Cabinet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations General Assembly will meet on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will host Polish President Karol Nawrocki at the White House.

·       Jamaica holds House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem gives speech at the Peterson Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Minnesota Women's Economic Roundtable.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/29)/JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/29)/EARNINGS: Salesforce, HPE, Gitlab, Dollar Tree

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2

·       Colombia Exports (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will hold a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, with 26 foreign leaders in attendance.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (August)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/22)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union's new floating price cap on Russian oil, set at 15% below the six-month average market price, will take effect.

·       The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok Russia through September 6.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcoming remarks at the 9th ESRB Conference "Broadening horizons: ESRB’s next decade of impact" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England and Warwick Business School Innovation In Money and Payments Conference.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Great Britain BoE L Mann Speech / S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Jordan PPI (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola will host its "Angola Oil & Gas" conference in Luanda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

Thursday, September 4, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, will meet with US trade negotiators in Washington today and Friday.

·       US Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran will get a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee to fill out the term of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

·       Bloomberg holds its Bloomberg Power Players New York Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before an Economic Club of New York Signature Luncheon.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before mHub Industry Disruptor Series event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August)/30/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/03) EARNINGS: Broadcom, Lululemon

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/30

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Household Spending (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark through September 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Handelsblatt banking summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

·       Hungary Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (August)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Business Confidence Q3

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Friday, September 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Wages (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Earnings (August)/ Government Payrolls (August)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (August)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Costa Rica    Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will host the 12th Japan-Australia meeting of foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo.

·       Singapore’s parliament goes into session.  This is the first gathering of parliament since the May elections when the ruling People’s Action Party won a commanding majority.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Reform holds it two-day national conference in Birmingham, England.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Global

·       There will be an OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia     Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump to Host Putin in Alaska in a Bid for Ukraine Peace, The Deadline for the End of the US–China Tariff Pause Looms, and Markets Get Ready for A Busy Economic Calendar

August 10 - 17, 2025

While most of us were looking forward to a quiet August and some time away from the office and our computer screens, the month is proving to be jam-packed with major geopolitical events and a steady stream of breaking news headlines. 

With that in mind, this coming week, arguably one of the biggest events of the year will take place when President Trump hosts Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine.  The question of the day is whether or not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be invited to attend the Friday meeting, too, as European leaders are urging Trump to extend an invitation to him.

Considering the initial terms of any ceasefire seem to be allowing Russia to keep Ukrainian land it has seized over the last three years - including Crimea -  you would think the Ukrainian President should be present.   Zelensky has already rejected the idea of ceding any Ukrainian land to Russia.  

Markets and Western leaders intently watch the lead-up to Friday’s meeting  (markets and policymakers seem to be bracing for the high likelihood of surprise twists, turns, and demands from Putin in the next few days before the summit) and what might or might not come of it all.   

But markets are also focused on Tuesday when the pause on tariffs between China and the US is set to expire.  The pause put in place by President Trump brought the tariffs down from 145% to 30% for US tariffs and from 145% to 10% for Chinese tariffs on US goods. As to whether President Trump will again extend the pause is unclear at this point, but seen as likely – perhaps another 90 days – as a way to further warm up relations between Beijing and Washington.

But one complication could be President Trump’s ramping up of tariffs on India for purchasing sanctioned Russian oil, which in turn impacts China as it will likely lead to higher oil prices and raise the question of when Trump will place tariffs on China, which also purchases sanctioned Russian oil and gas.

Another aspect of the Trump tariff efforts is likely to be announced sometime this week, too, when the President announces the results of Section 232 investigations in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.  It is expected he will slap heavy tariffs on both sectors, perhaps as high as 150% on pharmaceuticals and 100% on semiconductors. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a busy week of data releases and reports.  In the US, the July CPI report is out on Tuesday, PPI is out Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment for August is out Friday.    On top of these three big reports, we will see retail sales figures and industrial production numbers out on Friday. 

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Monday.  China released inflation data on Saturday (which was reported as being flat).  This coming Friday, China will be releasing its house price index, industrial production numbers, retail sales, and unemployment figures.   And Japan will be releasing PPI on Wednesday and Q2 GDP figures on Friday.

Moving over to Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey and CPI are released on Tuesday, and the UK releases Q2 GDP figures on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: Maritime security: Prevention, innovation and international cooperation to address emerging challenges.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will hold a press conference to address crime in Washington, D.C.  Trump may announce his intention to call out the National Guard to help enforce a crackdown on crime.

·       Peru's President Dina Boluarte visits Japan and Indonesia.

·       The US Congress is in recess for the month of August and returns September 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Industrial Production (June)

·       Canada BoC Market Participants Survey

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam's General Secretary To Lam and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will hold a bilateral summit part of Lam's four-day state visit to South Korea through Wednesday. Lam will be the first foreign leader hosted by Lee since the South Korean president took office in June, and the visit comes at a time of blossoming bilateral ties.

·       Today is Mountain Day in Japan.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Salzburg Festival 2025 begins and runs through August 31.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (June)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (June)/ Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (June)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (June)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

·       OPEC releases its monthly report on oil production.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The temporary pause agreed to between the US and China on trade tariffs expires.

·       Uruguayan unions will conduct a partial strike to oppose the wage adjustment for public sector workers.

·       Mexico hosts a U.N. conference on the status of women in Latin America and the Caribbean.

·       In French Guiana, the Ariane 6 rocket launch, carrying EUMETSAT’s Metop-SGA1 satellite, is the first of the next generation of European polar-orbiting weather satellites.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin addresses the Health Management Academy at the Four Seasons Hotel Chicago.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ Redbook (August/09)/ Fed Schmid Speech/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/08)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (July)

·       Canada Building Permits (June)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

·       India Inflation Rate (July)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Norway’s sovereign wealth fund releases an updated list of its holdings in the 9,000 companies it is invested in worldwide, plus second-quarter results, at a press conference in Arendalsuka, Norway.

·       Armenia and the US will hold joint military exercise in Armenia – The Eagle Partner 2025 – through August 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)/ Claimant Count Change (July)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (July)

·       Turkey Current Account (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ ZEW Current Conditions (August)/ Current Account (June)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Gold Production (June)/ Mining Production (June)/ Unemployed Persons Q2

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (June)

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Global

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its monthly oil production report for all OECD member countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at the Greenville Chamber of Commerce in Greenville, South Carolina.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at a lunch hosted by the state central bank alongside the Franklin County Economic Development Authority

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks on regional monetary policy at a lunch, hosted by the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/08)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/08)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ PPI (July)/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Singapore           Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAY

·       Australia Home Loans Q2/ Investment Lending for Homes Q2/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q2

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       China Vehicle Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (July)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

·       Romania Current Account (June)

·       Serbia Current Account (June)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union – AIP Water Investment Summit 2025 begins in Cape Town, South Africa and runs through August 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (June)

Thursday, August 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuelan unions will stage demonstrations against government repression in Caracas..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a webinar conversation hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/02)/ PPI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/08)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/14)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/13)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Hong Kong, the trial of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai reconvenes for closing arguments. The founder of the pro-democracy news outlet Apple Daily, which was forced to close in 2021, has been held in solitary confinement for nearly 1,700 days under the controversial national security law that China imposed on the city. Western governments and human rights groups have called for his release.

·       Pakistan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)

·       Australia Employment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

·       India WPI Food Index (July)/ WPI Fuel (July)/ WPI Inflation (July)/ WPI Manufacturing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (July)

·       China New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (July)/ GDP (June)/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ Construction Orders Q2/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Labour Productivity Q2/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Hungary Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

·       France Inflation Rate (July)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (July)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Russia Current Account Q2

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (July)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)/ SACCI Business Confidence (July)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

Friday, August 15, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump to meet his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, in Alaska to discuss a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine conflict.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (June)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Expectations/ Conditions Prel (August)/ Business Inventories (June)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/15)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Prime Minister Narendra Modi gives a speech at the Red Fort in Delhi to mark the anniversary of India’s independence from British rule in 1947.

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is set to deliver his first State of the Nation Address, in which he will explain the government's priority programs for the coming year. The speech will also include key economic targets, highlighting the administration's fiscal direction under his leadership. The address comes ahead of Indonesia's 80th Independence Day celebrations on Sunday.

·       Madagascar will host the 45th summit of the Southern African Development Community in Antananarivo.   The members of the Community include Angola,  Botswana. Comoros , Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar , Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique. Namibia, Seychelles,  South Africa. Tanzania. Zambia and Zimbabwe.

·       Beijing hosts the 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games, the first global sporting event dedicated solely to humanoid robots, which runs until Sunday.

·       Today is Independence Day in South Korea. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ Food Inflation (July)/ Visitor Arrivals (June)

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/09)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/09)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ FDI (YTD) (July)

·       Malaysia Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (August/01)/ Deposit Growth (August/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (June)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Liechtenstein National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Serbia Building Permits (June)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa will hold its first-ever National Convention with political, business, and civil rights groups.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

§  India celebrates Janmashtami, a Hindu festival marking the birth of Krishna, the eighth avatar of Vishnu, featuring dramatic re-enactments of the life of Krishna throughout Mathura and Vrindavan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 17, 2025

 Global

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Gabon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Ukraine Peace Efforts Intensify as the 3rd Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion is Marked, Germany Holds Elections, and G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meet in South Africa

February 23 - March 1, 2025

Monday marks the 3rd anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  In the shadow of this sad milestone, President Trump is continuing his rapid move to force peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which are spurring multiple events this coming week.   

First, French President Emmanual Macron will travel to Washington on Monday for meetings with President Trump on the situation.  Later in the week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will travel to Washington for talks, too.  The talks will include talks regarding Trump's threat to place tough new tariffs on Europe.  We would note that Polish President Andrzej Duda met with President Trump yesterday (Saturday) in Washington to discuss Ukraine and US-Polish security arrangements and cooperation.

In Europe, EU foreign affairs ministers will meet to discuss the current state of peace efforts and the situations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.  Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Ada will attend those meetings.

Meanwhile, results from Germany's elections are coming in today (Sunday).  As expected, the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) coalition led by Fredrik Mertz looks to have won the elections with 29 percent of the vote.  But in a historic first, the fa-right AfD Party came in second with more than 20 percent of the vote.  The CDU/CSU will likely have to form a coalition with either the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Green Party, or libertarian Free Democratic Party (if they reach the threshold of 5 percent required to be seated in the parliament – they are currently coming at 4.7 percent in exit polls) to form a ruling government.  Merz has said he will refuse to work with the AfD.

In Washington, Monday is the deadline for all federal workers to comply with a demand from Elon Musk's DOGE explaining their work or risk being fired.  A number of federal agencies, including the Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) under new Director Kash Patel, have ordered employees to ignore the demand, leaving many federal workers confused as to what to do.

In Congress, the House will continue its efforts to hammer out a massive tax and budget Reconciliation bill in the face of a looming March 14 government shutdown.  Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is hoping to hold a vote on the bill by the end of the week, but likely disagreements among various factions in the Republican Caucus are likely to derail the effort, particularly around efforts aimed at cutting Medicaid.  The Senate passed a $340 budget reconciliation bill (leaving tax for another Reconciliation later this year) on Friday.  President Trump has said he prefers the House strategy of rolling the giant budget and tax bill into "One big, beautiful bill," but Senate Republicans have still moved on their two-bill track as a backup in case the House fails.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, markets are looking to Friday's US PCE release—which the Federal Reserve uses as its favored inflation gauge—which comes after the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday and the durable goods report on Thursday. 

In Asia, Japan's CPI data is released on Friday following the PPI print on Tuesday.  In Europe, the European Central Bank's meeting minutes from their January meeting are out on Thursday.  Germany, France, and Italy publish inflation prints on Friday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, February 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guyana Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Japanese Emperor Naruhito’s 65th birthday.

·       Today is National Day in Brunei, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany holds parliamentary elections that will determine the new leadership of the country.  Christian Social Union leader Fredrik Mertz is seen as the likely next Chancellor.  However, it is unclear what sort of coalition he will form to avoid the surging ultra-rightwing AfD Party.

·       Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, otherwise known in Russia as Men’s Day, aimed at honoring men who serve in the armed forces.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Hezbollah's former Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah will be buried in Lebanon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN’s 58th session of the Human Rights Council begins in Geneva, Switzerland.  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will open the session with a keynote speech.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile PPI (January)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (February)

·       Canada BoC Gravelle Speech

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)

·       Paraguay PPI (January)

·       Peru Current Account Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       British Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds will travel to Delhi, India, for the 15th round of U.K.-India free trade negotiations.

·       Today is the birthday of the Japanese Emperor Naruhito.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Indonesia launches Danantara, a sovereign wealth fund with more than $900 billion in assets under management. Projects to be financed by the new fund are seen as crucial to attracting foreign investment and reaching Jakarta's goal of 8% annual economic growth.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Masato Kanda becomes Asian Development Bank president, succeeding Masatsugu Asakawa, who stepped down yesterday. Kanda will complete the unexpired term of Asakawa, which ends on November 23, next year.

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q4/ Credit Card Spending (January)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (January)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the current state of play in Ukraine, the situation in Syria and Lebanon, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar will attend the meetings.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the agricultural markets in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

·       EU President Ursuala von der Leyen will travel to Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky.

·       The EU-Israel Association Council will meet in Brussels. The meeting will engage in political dialogue, focusing on the conflict in Gaza and Israeli-Palestinian relations, regional issues, including Iran, and global issues.

·       A delegation of the EU Internal Market and Consumer Protection Committee will travel to Washington DC to meet with US Congress, US government entities, academics and industries representatives, as part of efforts to strengthen transatlantic cooperation in key policy areas.

·       A delegation from the EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will go to London to discuss EU-UK relations. They will cover competitiveness and investment, Ukraine’s reconstruction and sanctions against Russia, banking supervision, financial services, and digital finance. MEPs will meet, among others, the Bank of England Deputy Governor, the Financial Secretary to the Treasury and members of House of Lords and House of Commons 

·       Russia celebrates Day of the Defenders of the Motherland.

·       Estonia celebrates Independence Day.  Markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England begins a two-day conference at its London conference center on the theme “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet” to promote policy-relevant research in this field by bringing together researchers from academia, central banks and international institutions.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (February)/ Capacity Utilization (February)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (February)/ Ifo Current Conditions (February)/ Ifo Expectations (February)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Final (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ruling AKP party holds congress meeting.

·       UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan makes a state visit to Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (January)/ Total Credit Growth (January)

·       Oman M2 Money Supply (December)/ Total Credit (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Global

·       There will be a virtual meeting of G7 heads of state will be held to discuss potential avenues for a peaceful resolution.

·       Brazil will lead the first BRICS+ Sherpas meeting as president of the bloc in Rio de Janeiro. 

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing in the Middle East followed by consultations.

·       The UN Biodiversity 2025 Conference resumes sessions for the 16th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity in Rome. Agenda includes securing $200bn annually for biodiversity by 2030.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump hosts French President Emmanuel Macron for meetings on Ukraine and US-EU trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Financial Stability followed by Q&A at the Yale School of Management in New Haven, Connecticut.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks before the 2025 BEAR (Bank of England Agenda for Research) Conference: “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet" in London.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on “Inflation Then and Now" before the Rotary Club of Richmond.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)

·       USA Redbook (February/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (December)/ House Price Index (December)/ CB Consumer Confidence (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing & Services Revenues Index (February)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (February)/ Money Supply (January)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/21)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development opens at the UN Conference Center in Bangkok, running until Friday.

·       South Korea's Constitutional Court will hold its final hearing for President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial.

·       The ASEAN Future Forum 2025 begins in Hanoi, Vietnam.

·       China’s 62nd Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) begins in the eastern city of Hangzhou.

·       New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit Vietnam through February 28 to discuss mutual security and trade issues.

·       India and Japan will conduct joint urban warfare and counterterrorism drills near Mount Fuji. 

·       The Philippines and Japan hold a Defense Ministerial meeting in Manila.

·       Thailand and the U.S. jointly host the 43rd annual Cobra Gold exercise, the largest and longest-running military exercise in Southeast Asia. More than 8,000 personnel from the two host countries as well as Singapore, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia will take part. China, an emerging supplier of military equipment to Thailand, and India will join humanitarian assistance training.

·       The Philippines celebrates People Power Day, commemorating when in 1986 demonstrations took place that began leading to the end of the Marcos regime.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Index (December)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 3rd anniversary of Russia launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian war that started in February 2014.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the Future of Europe and the legislative agenda.

·       The European Commission will present its Clean Industrial Deal and its "simplification omnibus" package. 

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visits Kyiv for meetings with President Zelensky.

·       NATO countries train in extreme cold conditions in Finland's Lapland during "Arctic Forge 25".

Economic Reports/Events –

European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England’s Annual Research Conference “The Future of the Central Bank Balance Sheet” in London.

European Union New Car Registrations (January)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Hungary Gross Wage (December)/ Deposit Interest Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (February)

·       Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth Q4

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait celebrates National Day. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (December)

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Global

·       The World Trade Organization holds a three-day trade policy review of Ukraine.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold consultations on 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will hold his first cabinet meeting.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on “Inflation Then and Now" before the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a conversation on the economic outlook and housing before the Urban Land Institute's annual Housing Opportunity Conference.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/21)/ New Home Sales (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/21)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Building Permits Final (January)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (January)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (January)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) hold a retreat on the Malaysian island of Penang to discuss strengthening regional security cooperation and strategic unity. On Friday, the bloc's economy ministers meet at Desaru in Malaysia's southern Johor state.

·       Nikkei’s Japan-India-Africa Business Forum his held in Tokyo.  A number of senior government officials and senior executives from various industries are scheduled to speak.

·       Hong Kong unveils its budget for 2025, as a protracted downturn in the local property market and other factors weigh on the government's finances. Financial Secretary Paul Chan will be in the spotlight as observers look for any signs of changes to the city's low-tax structure, key to its appeal as a financial hub.

·       Indonesia launches its first bullion bank in a move described by President Prabowo Subianto as essential for storing gold reserves extracted from local mines. The new bank is aimed at accommodating Indonesia's growing capability to produce gold bars.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q4/ Monthly CPI Indicator (January)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (December)/ Leading Economic Index Final (December)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (January)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer travels to Washington, D.C., for meetings with President Trump to discuss trade and Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Swati Dhingra gives the Dow Lecture, “Trade fragmentation and monetary policy”, at the offices of the think-tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London.

·        

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (December)

·       France Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Spain PPI (January)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Infotopia 2025 Conference begins in the UAE.

·       Kuwait celebrates Liberation Day, marking the day Iraq was defeated after invading the country in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (January)

Thursday, February 27, 2025

Global

·       The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in South Africa through February 28.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 2713 Committee (sanctions on Al-Shabaab). Afterwards, a briefing on the United Nations peacekeeping operations: Police Commissioners is scheduled to be held in the afternoon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Anguilla holds parliamentary elections.

·       Ontario Canada holds snap legislative assembly elections.

·       The Dominican Republic celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on community banking at the Fort Hays State University Robbins Banking Institute Lecture Series, Hays, Kansas.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Financial Stability" before the Columbia University/Bank Policy Institute: 2025 Bank Regulation Research Conference.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaks on the economic outlook before the Lyons Economic Forecast, presented by the University of Delaware's Center for Economic Education and Entrepreneurship.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February)/ Current Account (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Canada Current Account Q4/ Average Weekly Earnings (December)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (January)/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (February/22)/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Pending Home Sales (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (February)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/27)/ Kansas Fed Index (February)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting takes place in Kota Tinggi, Malaysia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (February)

·       Great Britain Car Production (January)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q4/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q4/ Private Capital Expenditure Q4

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Malaysia PPI (January)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (December)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission will visit India to advance free trade talks and hold the second meeting of the EU-India Trade and Technology Council through February 28.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes minutes from the last rate-setting meeting.

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (January)/ Economic Confidence Index (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/21)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (January)

·       France PPI (January)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (January)/ Jobseekers Total (January)

·       Slovakia Business and Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)/ Economic Sentiment (February)/ Consumer Confidence Final (February)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)/ Industrial Sentiment (February)/ Selling Price Expectations (February)/ Services Sentiment (February)

·       Italy Business and Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Sales (December)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (January)

·       Greece Total Credit (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria is expected to announce its new government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (January)

Friday, February 28, 2025

Global

·       Ramadan begins in the evening and goes through March 30.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Yamandu Orsi takes office as President of Uruguay.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei gives an annual speech before the Legislative Assembly.

·       Brazil holds Rio Carnival 2025.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research 2025 SIEPR Economic Summit.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q4/ GDP (December)/ Budget Balance (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (January)/ Personal Income & Spending (January)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (January)/ PCE Price Index (January)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (January)/ Wholesale Inventories (January)/ Core PCE Price Index (January)/ Chicago PMI (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/28)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Cement Production (January)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (February)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (February)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan celebrates Peace Memorial Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February/22)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/22)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Construction Orders (January)

·       Australia Housing Credit (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (February)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Private Investment & Consumption (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (February)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Government Budget Value (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (February/14)/ Deposit Growth (February/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/21)/ Infrastructure Output (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 2nd Est 2024-25

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi.

·       Andalusia celebrates Andalusia Day, celebrating when the region of Spain became autonomous.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden gives the keynote speech at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University on monetary policy in a world of geopolitical fragmentation.

·       Germany Retail Sales (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Unemployed Persons (February)/ Unemployment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (February)/ Bavaria CPI (February)/ Brandenburg CPI (February)/ Hesse CPI (February)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (February)/ Saxony CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Participation Rate (January)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

·       Hungary PPI (January)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (February)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (January)/ KOF Leading Indicators (February)/ Economic Sentiment Index (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (January)/ Private & Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Spain Current Account (December)/ Business Confidence (February)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Greece Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (January)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q4/ Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GNP Q4/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ Budget Balance (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (February)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (February)

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Global

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological spring.

·       Denmark takes the Chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

·       NASA’s Europa Clipper mission is due to make a fly-by of Mars en route to Jupiter’s moon Europa, where it will become the first mission to conduct a detailed scientific investigation of the moon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the end of the 30-day suspension of US 25% tariffs President Trump is placing on Canada and Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Independence Movement Day, a national holiday commemorating the protests against Japanese colonial rule.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       China NBS Non-Manufacturing, Manufacturing, & General PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 97th Academy Awards ceremony is held, where they give a bunch of awards for movies most of us have seen or heard of.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Tajikistan holds parliamentary and local elections.

·       Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba faces a deadline to get his proposed budget passed by the lower house of parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

DWS Insurance Asset Management Conference

Nashville, Tennessee

October 1 - 3, 2023

I had the great pleasure of recently attending DWS’ outstanding Insurance Asset Management Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. It is the premier insurance asset management event out there - the attendance by insurance industry leaders is superb, the content is rich and deeply thought-provoking, and the ability to socialize with so many outstanding strategists on the future of insurance and insurance asset management is outstanding.

The panel I had the honor of sitting on was entitled “Braving the New World and World Markets,” which included Bjoern Jesch, DWS’ Global Chief Investment Officer, and Paul Kelly, the Global Head of Alternatives for DWS.

We covered a host of macroeconomic issues and geopolitical issues. What makes panels like this particularly enjoyable is both Paul and Bjoern are incredibly well-versed not just in what is going on in the markets but also in geopolitical risks and their potential impact on markets. It made for a deep, insightful discussion - I learned a lot from both of them in this hour-long event.

Thank you, DWS, for including me. Great job, Bjoern and Paul. Really outstanding event!

From left to right: DWS’ Bob Meikleham, who moderated, me, Paul Kelly, and Bjoern Jesch.