Global Week Ahead

Oct 5

Israeli-Hamas Peace Talks Take a Big Step, Trump Meetings with Canada’s Carney, the EU Parliament Holds No-Confidence Votes, the US Government Looks to Be Shut Another Week, and Markets Await a Flood of Central Bank Speeches

October 5 - 12, 2025

The world is watching events unfold in the Middle East as Hamas appears to be ready to accept a good portion of President Trump’s peace plan proposal, including releasing all remaining hostages (just as we come up on the 2 year anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on Israel). There are several unresolved points but US negotiators led by Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff are in Egypt now working to finalize the deal but there is real hope the hostages will be released this week.

Also this week, President Trump has invited Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to meet with him at the White House on Tuesday to discuss both trade issues as well as mutual security concerns. Trade negotiators have been careful not to oversell the outcome of the meeting but there is hope a deal can be struck between the two leaders.

Meanwhile in Washington, the federal government shutdown continues, and House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has announced the House of Representatives will not return to work unless Democrats accept the continuing resolution they passed two weeks ago. At this point, we do not see a deal emerging soon but there is always hope.

In Europe, the European Parliament is scheduled to hold two no-confidence votes against EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden. This is the second time no-confidence votes have been brought against von der Leyden in the last three months. While both votes are expected to fail, it shows how split the Parliament is on issues ranging from trade to climate.

Staying in Europe, the Nobel Committee will begin announcing winners of their prestigious prize on Monday. The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, and the Nobel Prize for Economics will be announced next Monday.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are awaiting a flood of speeches from central bankers. In the US alone, we count sixteen Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve President speeches over the course of five days, including a speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell.

And in the EU, we count eleven scheduled European Central Bank (ECB) board member speeches including two from ECB President Christine Lagarde (and more are expected to be announced) plus Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking in Scotland. That is a lot of data for the markets to take in and, in our view, a bit odd considering the week of October 12th is the Annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, DC where there will be countless central bankers speaking.

With the US government shutdown still going, there will be limited economic data releases. The Federal Reserve releases minutes from their last Open Market Meeting. And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out Friday.

In Asia, China’s Gold Week holiday continues until October 8th. Japan, which has just elected its first woman as Prime Minister, releases its Regional Economic Report on Monday and the Consumer Activity Index on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

· OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

· Israel is expected to begin mediated negotiations with Hamas in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Monday, October 6, 2025

Global

· The Nobel Committee begins announcing winners of prizes. Today’s prize will be for physiology or medicine.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and Peace and Security.

· The World Trade Organization’s General Council meeting takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court begins a new term, hearing cases.

· Unless there is a last-minute breakthrough agreement between Congressional Republicans and Democrats over a Continuing Resolution bill, the federal government will remain shut this week and the House of Representatives will stay out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks to CFA Society Kansas City on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Colombia Exports (August)/ PPI (September)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Azerbaijan hosts the 12th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament is expected to hold two separate no-confidence vote son European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sometime this week. Both votes are expected to fail.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Scotland’s Global Investment Summit 2025 being held in Edinburgh.

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening remarks at the Diario Expansión: XVI Encuentro Financiero in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2025: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany

· Romania Retail Sales (August)

· Hungary Retail Sales (August)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

· Spain Industrial Production (August)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ ECB Lane Speech/ Retail Sales (August)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· France HCOB Construction PMI (September)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

· Serbia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

· Jordan PPI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (AU).

· Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event begins and runs through October 8. This will be closely watched by economist for any slowdown in shopping by consumers.

· The 2025 Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US President Donald Trump will host Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House for talks on trade.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran

· Sits for a fireside chat at the Managed Funds Association (MFA) Policy Outlook 2025 in New York.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran gives a talk at the Deutsche Bank 2025 Fall Macro Conference in New York.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in discussion on the economic outlook at event hosted by Fisk University.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation on artificial intelligence and the economy before the Star Tribune North Star Summit 2025.

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Mexico Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (September)

· USA Redbook (October/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Consumer Credit Change (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

· Brazil Car Production (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The FIATA World Congress – global freight forwarders – in Hanoi, Vietnam to discuss various topics, such as challenges in the new global trade landscape and how to navigate them. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is scheduled to attend the event

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q3/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/07)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)/ RBA Annual Report 2025

· Japan Household Spending (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Economic Index (August)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Motorbike Sales (September)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech followed by a Q&A session at Business France event 'Business en Européens' in Paris, France.

· Germany Factory Orders (August)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)/ Treasury Gilt 2028 Tender

· Hungary Industrial Production August)

· France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· This is the 2nd anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on civilians in Israel and taking of hostages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Global

· In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia and the 2713 Committee. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

· In Washington, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain raiser speech for the upcoming 2025 Annual Meetings being held next week.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louise, Missouri.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on community development and Indian Country the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Center for Indian Country Development 10th Anniversary and Data Summit: Braiding the Past and Future of Native Economies, Minneapolis, Minnesota.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

· Chile Inflation Rate (September)

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (October/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/03)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/03)

· Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Paris Europlace Forum 20254 will take place in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Uedo speaks at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo.

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Bank Lending (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Survey (September)

· Australia Building Permits (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at 55th anniversary event of the Werner Report "Itinéraires luxembourgeois et européens" in Luxembourg.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion at the International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

· Germany Industrial Production (August)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (September)

· Greece Balance of Trade (August)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (September)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).   

· The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Literature is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video)

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Future of Community Banking: Challenges and Opportunities” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis, Minesota.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Looking Toward the Future” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/08)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/04)/ Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Indonesia Car Sales (September)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg. The EU Finance Ministers will discuss macroeconomic and fiscal monitoring including preparation for upcoming international meetings.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 10 in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a roundtable discussion and Q&A at the Irish Association of Investment Managers in Dublin, Ireland.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

· Greece Inflation Rate (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

· Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

· Israel Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Uganda Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Friday, October 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

· The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in fireside chat before the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce Public Policy Speaker's Series.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before the 19th annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Charting the Course" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Brazil PPI (August)

· Mexico Industrial Production (August)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Wages (September)

· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te is expected to deliver a national day address.

· Tajikistan will host a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Dushanbe. They will simultaneously host the 2ndCentral Asia-Russia Summit. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend both events.

· North Korea is expected to show off its newest weapons at a large military parade to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party. High-ranking officials from China and Russia are expected to participate. The last time North Korea held a large military parade was in July 2023 to mark the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)

· Australia RBA Bullock Speech/ RBA Kent Speech

· Japan PPI (September)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (September)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

· India Bank Loan Growth (September/26)/ Deposit Growth (September/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit India through October 10th.

· In Slovenia, the 2025 Nato Parliamentary Assembly Annual Session, where 281 parliamentary members from 32 Nato member states are due to discuss Euro-Atlantic Defence and the continent’s security agenda.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Brussels.

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss financing the EU Budget, taxation of tobacco, climate financing, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

· Turkey Retail Sales (August)

· Italy Industrial Production (August)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

· Greece Industrial Production (August)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

· Russia Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Naura holds parliamentary elections and a referendum on the Constitution.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Scottish National party annual three-day conference begins in Aberdeen.

· In Belfast, Northern Ireland’s Ulster Unionist party annual conference open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Gabon holds the 2nd round of National Assembly elections.

· IN the Seychelles, the conclusion of a three-day presidential run-off election after no candidate secured the required 50 per cent majority in the first-round vote, held on September 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 2025 World Health Summit opens, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads