CORRECTED: The Global Week Ahead

China Holds the 4th Party Plenum, Japan Elects a New Prime Minister, Rubio to Meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, the ASEAN Summit Begins, and It’s a Big Earnings Week

October 19 - 26, 2025

It is going to be a week of momentous meetings, likely to set the direction for a number of issues globally for the coming year.  First, the Chinese Communist Party is holding its 4th Party Plenum in Beijing.  The meetings come at a critical time for China as the economy continues to struggle to regain its footing, eight senior military officials were either arrested or kicked out of the Party last week, and President Xi continues to battle President Trump over tariffs and access to rare earth minerals.

Meanwhile, following President Trump’s meeting Friday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov in Budapest to resume discussions on how to bring either a ceasefire or an outright end to the war in Ukraine.  Late this weekend, it was reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone call with President Trump this past week, reiterated his demand that Ukraine surrender large portions of occupied land in return for peace.  Trump reportedly, in turn, urged Zelensky to consider the terms.  Trump also denied Zelenskyy and Ukrainian military forces access to the much-sought Tomahawk missiles.

In the Middle East this week, Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to travel to Israel Tuesday to push for further implementation of the Gaza peace agreement while US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trum[‘s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected to meet with Qatari and Israeli representatives on the next steps on the shaky plan.  The past week saw continued violence in Gaza as Hamas began going after rival factions, executing dozens of fighters and leaders as they struggle to retain some semblance of control in the region.

This coming Sunday, the ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.  President Trump is expected to attend and preside over the peace signing ceremony between Thailand and Cambodia.   Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss ways to de-escalate new tensions between the US and China, which sprang back up last week when China announced a new ban on critical mineral sales globally.

This all comes in advance of a much-hoped-for meeting between Trump and President Xi in two weeks at a second ASEAN Summit, this time being held in Gyeongju, South Korea between October 31-November 1.  But there is concern in the markets about the meeting and if it might be called off at the last meeting as much depends on how well the meeting between Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He go.

Also happening this week will be the election of Japan’s new Prime Minister on Tuesday.  It appears that Sanae Takaichi has successfully put together a new coalition with Japan’s Innovation Party with her Liberal Democratic Party, which will make her Japan’s first female prime minister.  She will attend the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur and then meet with President Trump on October 27-29 in Japan to discuss finalizing a trade deal and then attend the second ASEAN Summit in South Korea on October 31.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big event will be in the US, where, despite the ongoing government shutdown, government economists have been called back to work to assemble the September CPI numbers for release on Friday.   All other government data releases are being delayed because of the shutdown so markets remain dependent on private sector data. The Conference Board releases its leading index on Monday, and the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment report on Friday.  Canada’s CPI is out Tuesday.

Turning to Europe, markets will be listening closely to several speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.  Also, the UK will be releasing September inflation figures on Wednesday and retail sales and consumer confidence numbers on Friday.  Germany and France have manufacturing PMIs on Friday. 

In Asia, China will be releasing Q3 GDP and September economic figures on Monday.  Japan releases trade data on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.  And South Korea’s central bank interest rate decision is on Thursday.

Finally, we would note this is going to be a big earnings announcement week as market participants will get a deeper understanding of how the trade wars and the risk of inflation are impacting corporations globally.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

·       The EU-Iraq Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Government shutdown is expected to continue throughout the week ahead.

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travels to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump, their first face-to-face meeting. Albanese is expected to seek reassurances over America's commitment to the AUKUS submarine deal and promote access to Australia's strategic materials such as rare earths as leverage in the talks with the American leader.

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Hungary to discuss Ukraine.

·       Today is Heroes’ Day in Jamaica, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA CB Leading Index (September)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China holds the 4th Chinese Communist Party Plenum in Beijing.  The four-day forum will discuss the country’s next five-year plan.

· In Vietnam, the National Assembly holds its winter session, which lasts until December 11.  They are expected to discuss 49 laws and 4 resolutions -- a record number. Vietnam, one of the fastest-growing economies, is ramping up wide-ranging reforms that the government expects will help fuel double-digit economic growth in 2026, up from an expected 8% in GDP growth this year.

·       Diwali is celebrated in India through October 25.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (October)/ House Price Index (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Communist Party Fourth Plenum        

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan.

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The Foreign Ministers will discuss the state of the War in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the EU-Indo-Pacific relations.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Luxembourg.

·       European Commission President  Ursula von der Leyen participates in the Summit of Southern European Union countries (MED-9) in Portorož, Slovenia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at WE_ARE_IN conference in Frankfurt. European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Boris Vujcic attend a roundtable in New York.

·       Germany PPI (September)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area Current Account (August)/Construction Output (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Slovakia Current Account (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)/ M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q3

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TVV meeting on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve holds its Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C.  Federal  Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/18)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/17)    

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (August)/ Imports (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Costa Rica          Balance of Trade (September)

·       EARNINGS: Netfilx, GE, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, Capital One, Danaher, Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, 3M, General Motors, EQT, Equifax, PulteGroup, Haliburton

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Diet will vote on who will be the next Prime Minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Credit Card Spending (September)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/21)          

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks on a panel at the ISDA/AFMA Derivatives Trading Forum in Sydney.

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)             

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia is expected to begin 10-days of naval exercises in the Pacific in waters close to South Korea and Japan.

·       The Helsinki Security Forum takes place in Helsinki.  The event brings together experts and decision-makers to explore European security and defense.  It will also address how Europe can boost its competitiveness, invest in Defence, and shape its security order. High-level delegates are expected to attend, and participants include representatives from the Defence industry, research institutions, and government bodies.

·       The EU-Uzbekistan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They will discuss the Multiannual Financial Framework 2028-2034, Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary, and other issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote address at the Norges Bank's Climate Conference followed by moderated discussion with Al Gore in Oslo, Norway.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the House of Lords' Financial Services Regulation Committee on the growth in private markets in the UK following reforms introduced after the 2008 financial crisis.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements DLT Innovation Challenge Showcase in London.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (September)

·       Greece Current Account (August)

·       Slovenia PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The ISS/Africa Futures Conference 2025 takes place online.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)       

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial inclusion at the Crossing the Credit Barrier Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/17)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/17)      

·       Mexico Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (August)/ Leading Indicator (September)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, SAP, IBM, Thermo Fisher, AT&T, UniCredit, Barclays, Moody’s, Southwest Airlines, Alcoa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (September)

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan, Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Egypt Summit will be held in Brussels.

·       The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Luxembourg.

·       In London, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosts the 2025 Berlin Process Summit in partnership with Germany. The meeting aims to support stability, security, and economic co-operation in the western Balkan region.

·       The Global Security and Innovation Summit, a two-day event to discuss global security challenges and to explore new security technology, opens in Hamburg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the  Frankfurt Finance & Future Summit in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a talk at the Barcelona Real Assets Meeting 2025 in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods gives a speech at the Annual City Banquet at Mansion House in London.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)/ BoE Woods Speech

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Russia Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva travels to Indonesia and Malaysia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will testify before the  U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Retail Sales (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (September)   

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (October)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/22)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay PPI (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNNGS: T-Mobile, Blackstone, Intel, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Newmont, Freeport-McMorRan, Ford Motor, Baker Hughes, Dassault Systems, PG&E, Dow, EvolutionAB, Atlas Copco

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/18)            

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (September)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Euro Summit takes place in Brussels. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane accepts the occasion of the conferral of the 2025 Pádraig Ó hUiginn Award to him in Dublin, Ireland.

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee, Jonathan Hall, gives a speech on the Bank of England Financial Committee’s mandate and the search for a social optimum in London.

·       France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)    

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Libya Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The United Nations Organization: Looking into the Future..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will hold an Open Board Meeting.  The Board will consider proposals to enhance the transparency and public accountability of the Board’s stress testing framework and request comments on the scenarios for the Board’s 2026 supervisory stress test.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ Current Account (September)/      Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (October)

·       Chile PPI (September)

·       USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/24)/ New Home Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, NatWest, Saab, Sanofi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech in Sydney/Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)      

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)          

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland holds Presidential elections.

· European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council, meets with Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Uzbekistan, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat titled 'Il nuovo quadro della finanza internationale' at Cambio di Paradigma organized by Il Mattino in Naples, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Francois Villeroy de Galhau speak at the Berlin Global Dialogue.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ Car Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)     

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Zambia's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In  Japan, the Mount Fuji Dialogue begins.  The gathering unites influential government officials and businesspeople from the U.S. and Japan, will be held in Tokyo. Hosted by the Japan Center for Economic Research and the Japan Institute of International Affairs, the annual event comes amid flaring U.S.-China tensions and political uncertainty in Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the 2025 Berlin Global Dialogue in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina holds a referendum in the ethnic Republika Srpska to vote on whether they accept the courts’ decision to convict Milorad Dodik and later to remove him as RS president. Dodik has also stated that a referendum on independence for the Serbian entity might be held at a future date.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ivory Coast holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia.  Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN's 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summer Time – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.