The Global Week Ahead

NATO Defense Ministers Meet to Discuss Ukraine, The Munich Security Conference Brings Focus to the Future of NATO, the Lunar New Year Begins, and a Week of Big Earnings

February 8 - 15, 2026

The geopolitical focus this week will be on Europe, with a focus on Ukraine and NATO.  The big event of the week is the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC), which begins on Friday.  There is always a lot of news from the MSC, and we expect this year to be no different, as a major theme of the conference is the future of NATO and Europe’s drive to build a stronger, more integrated defense sector.

 However, the MSC comes on the heels of an important meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Thursday to discuss further military support for Ukraine.  US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he plans to skip the meeting.  Later in the day, EU defense ministers will meet amongst themselves and with Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

We would also note that, while it has yet to be formally announced, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has told reporters he expects the first trilateral peace talks among Ukraine, Russia, and the USto take place sometime this week, most likely in Miami.  

The biggest event of the week took place today (Sunday) in Japan, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide win in snap elections.  Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gained a historic supermajority in the Japanese Diet (Parliament), winning 316 of the 465 seats.  The results are expected to have major impacts on Japan’s defense strategy and tax cuts, and to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to hold rates.

In the US, Washington’s growing focus on Latin America continues as summit on Friday to discuss common security concerns.  

This comes as President Trump hosts a Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.  Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, markets are watching for the delayed January jobs data, released on Wednesday, and the delayed January CPI report, released on Friday.  

In Europe this week, it is a relatively light data week.  European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give several speeches, including two at the Munich Security Conference.  In the UK, Q4 GDP is released on Thursday. 

Moving to Asia, Japan’s Economy Watchers survey is out on Monday, and PPI on Thursday.  China’s inflation reports are out on Wednesday.

Finally, this is a heavy earnings week in the US and Europe.  Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

·       In Bahrain, the UN-sponsored World Entrepreneurs Investment Forum 2026 will be held through February 10th.

·       The 2026 Winter Olympics continue through February 22nd in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA may launch three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.  This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

·       Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds lower house elections.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position.  More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

·       Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 9, 2026

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on digital assets at the Global Interdependence Center Summit: The Dollar and Continued U.S. Exceptionalism, La Jolla, California.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation on the economy at the Boston University Questrom School of Business Events and Conference Center, Boston, Massachusetts. Later, eh will participate in a conversation at the WBUR Podcast: Is Business Broken, in Boston.

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation with Pro Farmer.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai is due to be sentenced, following his conviction in a controversial trial that drew global attention. Lai was found guilty of colluding with foreign forces under the National Security Law that China imposed on Hong Kong in 2020, and of publishing seditious materials.  He could receive a life sentence.

·       The Philippines' House of Representatives is expected to vote on whether to revive impeachment complaints against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. While a lower house committee previously dismissed the bid for "lack of substance," a one-third vote from the chamber could still overturn that decision.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (January)

·       Australia Household Spending (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Motorbike Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       EARNINGS: DBS

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Great Britain’s Prince William is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in debate on the state of the EU economy and ECB activities in Strasbourg, France.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at Maynooth University in Maynooth, Ireland.

·       European Central. Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus speaks in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel joins panel discussion on inflation in Karlsruhe, Germany.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (December)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (January)

·       EARNINGS: UniCredit

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

South Africa will host the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Global

·       International Energy Week runs through February 12 in London, assembling global leaders to tackle key issues in the energy transition.

·       The Oslo Energy Forum is being held in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance will visit Armenia.

·       President Trump hosts the Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.  Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at the Asset Management Derivatives Forum.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Export Prices (December)/ Import Prices (December)/ Redbook (February/07)/ Business Inventories (November)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Fed Logan Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (January)/ Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (January)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador PPI (January)

·       EARNINGS: Ford, Mattel, Principal Financial, CVS Health, Duke Energy, AstraZeneca, AIG, Coca-Cola, Spotify

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cryptocurrency data company CoinDesk holds its Consensus HK Conference through Thursday in Hong Kong, bringing industry luminaries to a city striving to develop as a hub for the sector. But the shaky performance of Bitcoin and other digital currencies so far this year will be looming over the festivities.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       EARNINGS: Mazda, Honda

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (January)

·       France Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Turkey Industrial Production (December)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (December)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

·       Greece Industrial Production (December)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Barclays, BP,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (January)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Global

·       The UN’s the 6th Global Conference on the Elimination of Child Labour will be held from through February 13th in Marrakech, Morocco.

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance is expected to visit Azerbaijan.

·       The US will host the inaugural Western Hemisphere Chiefs of Defense Conference in Washington.

·       Barbados holds elections for their House of Assembly.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on supervision and regulation at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference (virtual)

·       Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks at the Economic Forum of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

·       Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks on leadership at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Brazil PPI (December)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February)/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)

·       Bank on Canada releases summary of deliberations/Canada Building Permits (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

·       EARNINGS: Cisco, Hilton Worldwide, McDonald’s, Tenet Healthcare, T-Mobile US, Kraft Heinz

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is expected to conduct a test launch of its new Long March-10A rocket, slated for use on lunar missions.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4/ RBA Hauser Speech

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/23)

·       EARNINGS: Grab, Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and how to offer greater support.  US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he intends to skip the meeting.

·       Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.  The meeting will focus on managing bilateral relations and delimiting the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as well as discussions of the continental shelf and mining.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Eugen Böhm von Bawerk Lecture at the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, Austria.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives closing remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England’s Executive Director of International James Talbot will give a speech at the London School of Economics on “Climate Change, the Economy, and the Financial System: Perspectives from the Bank of England.)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (December)

·       Italian Industrial Production (December)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Balance of Trade (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)

·       EARNINGS: Commerzbank, Dassault Systemes, TotalEnergies,  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt will host the AI Everything Middle East and Africa Summit in Cairo through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 39th Ordinary Summit of the African Union will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia through February 15th.  Heads of state will be gathered to discuss security and economic issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December and January)

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1988 Committee. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation with Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Global Perspectives Event, Dallas, Texas.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/31)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/12)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/11)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Airbnb, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Applied Materials, Wynn Resorts

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh heads to the polls, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party tipped to perform well, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as a significant force as voters eye a change from politics as usual. The party led by the students who drove the 2024 protests has failed to build momentum, however, and has become part of a Jamaat-led alliance.

·       Singapore Finance Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the 2026 budget statement in Parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)/ RBA Hunter Speech

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (November)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       India Inflation Rate (January)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: Softbank, Nissan

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to sip the meeting.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) in Brussels.  The Council will discuss EU military support to Ukraine, with a focus on cooperation in defense innovation, after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, who will be present in person.

·       There will be an informal meeting at an EU leaders retreat in Alden Biesen castle in Belgium.  The focus on the retreat, according to an invitation letter sent by EU President António Costa, is competitiveness and “strengthening the single market in the new geoeconomic context.”

·       There will be an informal meeting of the EU Employment and Social Affairs Council through February 13th in Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a lecture at a conference organized by the Commissione Europa of the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a speech at The World Ahead 2026 Sofia Gala Dinner in Sofia, Bulgaria.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on European monetary policy at Euro50 Group

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Greece Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Current Account Q4

·       Germany Current Account (December)

·       EARNINGS: Hermès, L’Oreal, Mercedes-Benz, Schroders, Siemens, Swisscom, Thyssenkrupp, Unilever, British American Tobacco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 13, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The G7 Foreign Ministers are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Rio Carnival opening ceremony is held.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (December)

·       USA Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/13)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech at the Kanagawa Keizai Doyukai.

·       South Korea Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

·       China House Price Index (January)

·       Malaysia Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: Kirin

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Munich Security Conference begins in Munich, Germany and runs through February 15th.

·       The UK Parliament goes into recess until February 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona, Spain.  Later, he gives remarks and participates in a Q&A at the Círculo de Confianza by Foment de Trebal in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks in a fireside chat at a Santander event in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Romania Industrial Production (December)

·       Turkey Current Account (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ Employment Change Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Building Permits (December)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September, October, November, and December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 14, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Current Account Prel Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion on trade dependencies and global supply chains during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 15, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lunar New Year begins.  China begins a weeklong holiday to celebrate the Year of the Horse.  Financial markets are closed in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion on European Competitiveness during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (January)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4