The Global Week Ahead

Dec 7

Trump’s New National Security Strategy Sends Shock Waves, EU European Ministers Meet in Ukraine, and the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Other Central Banks Decide on Interest Rates this Week

December 7 - 14, 2025

The big geopolitical event this coming week is not what is going to happen but rather what happened last week: The release of the Trump Administration’s U.S. National Security Strategy, released this past Wednesday. The document – which is proving to be a geopolitical earthquake - is highly critical of Europe, blaming the continent and “other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife…”

The strategy also calls for an end to the expansion of NATO and criticizes Europe for “unrealistic expectations” on how to resolve the Ukraine War and has many wondering what the future commitment of the US to NATO actually will be.

From a financial market perspective, the strategy makes clear President Trump is determined to preserve and grow U.S. financial market domination globally, stating “The United States boasts the world’s leading financial and capital markets, which are pillars of American influence that afford policymakers significant leverage and tools to advance America’s national security priorities…”

Meanwhile – or in spite of the strategy – EU European Affairs Ministers will be gathering in Lviv, Ukraine this week to discuss Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU. Efforts to bring Ukraine into the bloc have faltered but this meeting is seen as likely jump-starting the talks again.

The big events this coming week will all be taking place in central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets this week and is expected to cut rates again. Also meeting this week to discuss interest rates is the Reserve Bank of Canada, the Swiss Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Turkey’s Central Bank.

Looking at the overall economic and financial radar screen for the coming week, it is a fairly quiet week globally. Starting in Asia, China reports on its trade balance on Monday and inflation (CPI and PPI) on Wednesday. Japan releases its Economy Watchers survey for November on Monday.

Turning to Europe, the UK reports Industrial Production on Monday and October GDP on Friday. Germany reports trade figures on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 8, 2025

Global

· The G7 Industry and Tech Ministerial meeting takes place in Quebec, Canada.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Myanmar. This afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on OSCE Chairperson-in-Office.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit begins in New York and runs through Tuesday. White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Auto Production & Exports (November)

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Uzbekistan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (October)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q3/ Bank Lending (November)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (November)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Markets and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will be receive a presentation on the ’Annual Overview Report on Simplification, Implementation and Enforcement’, followed by an exchange of views.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through December 9. Ministers will discuss migration and asylum policy.

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul travels to China for discussion on steel and rare earth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give a guest lecture on "The transformation of money: technological disruption and the future of financial services" at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany Industrial Production (October)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (November)

· Greece Balance of Trade (October)

· Hungary Budget Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 9th Pan African Congress will be held in Lome, Togo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (November)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 25th NATO Parliamentary Assembly Transatlantic Forum takes place in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (December/06)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September and October)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/05)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

· Argentina Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is expected to begin this week. The CEWC is expected to ratify the decisions of the 4th Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party held this past October.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates and holds a press conference.

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Private House Approvals (October)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (November)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at the ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)/ BOE Gov Bailey Speech

· Ireland Construction PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (November)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

· Greece Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Tanzania, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q4

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US government begins auctioning for oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets today and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell at 2:00 p.m.

· The Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates followed by a press conference with Bank of Canada Head Tiff Macklin.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (November)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/05)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/

· Brazil’s Central Bank meets to decide interest rates.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

China’s Premier Li Qiang holds the “1+10” Dialogue with the heads of major international economic organizations including President of the New Development Bank Dilma Rousseff, President of the World Bank Ajay Banga, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development Rebeca Grynspan, Director-General of the International Labour Organization Gilbert F. Houngbo, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Chair of the Financial Stability Board Andrew Bailey, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Jin Liqun, and Deputy Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Frantisek Ruzicka.

· Australia’s new social media age ban for under-16s comes into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (October)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

· Japan PPI (November)

· Australia RBA Chart Pack

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)

· China Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (October)

· India M3 Money Supply (November/28)

· Kazakhstan PPI (November)

· Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs in Lviv, Ukraine through December 11.

· UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears before the Treasury Committee in Westminster to give evidence on her recent Budget speech.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote interview with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf on "What are the futures of the euro and the dollar as global currencies, and what are the opportunities for the digital euro?" at 9th Edition of The Global Boardroom: "Achieving growth in a disrupted world" in London, United Kingdom.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery chairs a panel discussion at ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in panel discussion at the 20th High-level meeting on financial stability and regulatory and supervisory priorities jointly organized by AMF-BCBS-FSI in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

· Romania Balance of Trade (October)

· Turkey Industrial Production (October)

· Euro Area ECB Machado Speech

· Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

· Italy Industrial Production (October)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (October)

· Greece Industrial Production (October)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

· Belarus Inflation Rate (November)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Inflation Rate (November)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Iraq Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (November)

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

· Kuwait Interest Rate Decision

· Oman Interest Rate Decision

· Qatar Interest Rate Decision

· United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q3

· South Africa Retail Sales (October)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on UNOCA/LRA. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC Metting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This will be followed by a TCC Meting on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

· OPEC publishes its monthly oil production report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Falkland Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (October)/ Business Confidence (December)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/10)/ PPI (October and November)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (November)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (November)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Ecadour Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q3

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q4/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/06)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/06)

· Australia Employment Change (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss macroeconomic developments and members states’ draft budgetary plans.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through December 12.

· Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the Covid-19 inquiry in London.

· Portugal’s two main trade unions, the CGTP and UGT, call a nationwide general strike against the center-right government’s proposal to ease dismissals, expand outsourcing and cut certain compassionate leave entitlements, including bereavement leave for miscarriages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the Arab Monetary Fund, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Institute high-level meeting in Dubai.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (November)

· Turkey Retail Sales (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)/ Auto Production (November)

· Slovakia Construction Output (October)

· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Ireland Inflation Rate (November)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (October)/ Mining Production (October)/ Building Permits (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

Friday, December 12, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to vote on 2713 Sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti sanctions, as well as consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center Roundtable Series Program.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation before hybrid 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Mexico Industrial Production (October)

· USA Fed Paulson Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/12)

· Canada Building Permits (October)/ Capacity Utilization Q3/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)/ Wholesale Sales (October)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import and Export Prices (November)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (November)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (November)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

· Malaysia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

· India Inflation Rate (November)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/28)/ Deposit Growth (November/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)

· China Vehicle Sales (November)/ New Yuan Loans (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (November)/ Total Social Financing (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss Customs reform and the single currency package as well as imports of small parcels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate (November)/ Current Account (October)

· Romania Inflation Rate (November)

· Turkey Current Account (October)

· Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Construction Output (October)/ GDP (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)

· Hungary Construction Output (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

· France Inflation Rate (November)

· Spain Inflation Rate (November)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Jamahuri Day in Kenya, otherwise known as Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q4/ SACCI Business Confidence (October and November)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, December 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

· The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara. Kast is expected to win.

The Global Week Ahead

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