The Global Week Ahead

Europe Steps Up Efforts For a Ukraine Peace Deal, Russian President Putin Holds His Annual Call-In Show, Chile Holds Its Presidential Election Runoff, and EU,  and Major Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

December 14 - 21, 2025

The Christmas and New Year holidays are just around the corner but the geopolitical calendar remains quite busy, especially with regard to all things Ukraine This week, European Union leaders will gather in Brussels for a European Council meeting to discuss the latest efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine, while also seeking a solution to Ukraine’s urgent funding needs in 2026 and beyond.  

That meeting is on December 18 & 19, and after a new, more urgent meeting on Monday in Berlin, called by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and featuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and numerous European heads of state, and potentially US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. 

In advance of Monday's meeting, President Zelensky has said he is ready to drop his demand for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe.  We will be watching for what Russian President Vladimir Putin might say a possible peace deal during his annual televised event  Friday.  That event blends his annual press conference with a nationwide call-in show where he supposedly takes unscripted questions from Russian citizens.

Also this week, Chile holds its presidential election runoff on Sunday.  Conservative candidate Jose Antonio Kast is expected to win against left-wing candidate Jeannette Jara, who is seeking to replace her political ally, current President Gabriel Boric.  While votes are still being counted, it appears Kast has won almost 60 percent of the vote.

Looking at the global economic and financial markets outlook, it is a big week for central bank meetings.  The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Norway are all meeting to decide on interest rates.

Looking at major economic reports coming out this week, the US delayed jobs and inflation figures from November are finally being released.  Also out in the US this week will be October retail sales figures. And Canada releases consumer inflation numbers on Monday.

Looking to Asia, China will release retail sales and industrial production figures on Monday.  The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of business is out on Monday, and the November CPI figures are on Friday. 

And turning to Europe, the UK releases labor market figures on Tuesday and inflation numbers on Wednesday.  Germany releases the Ifo survey on Wednesday and consumer confidence numbers on Friday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara.  Kast is expected to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 15, 2025

Global

·       The OECD is expected to publish its G20 GDP Growth Report.

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: Leadership for Peace. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s new requirement that all H1B and H4 visa applicants make their social media profiles available for review goes into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will give a speech on the inflation outlook at Columbia University, New York, New York.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in an economic growth discussion before an event organized by the New Jersey Bankers Association.

·       Brazil BC-BR Economic Activity (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI Median (November)/ Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December)/NAHB Housing Market Index (December)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong’s High Court is scheduled to deliver its verdict on the national security case against media executive Jimmy Lai.  He is facing the prospect of life in prison.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia’s head of financial stability, Andrea Brischetto, speaks at the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, which runs through December 16.

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (November)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

·       China House Price Index (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ FDI (YTD) (November)

·       India WPI Food Index (November)/ WPI Fuel (November)/ WPI Manufacturing (November)/ WPI Inflation (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q3

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (November)/ GDP (November)

·       Sri Lanka Services & Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is convening a meeting in Berlin, Germany of European, NATO, and US leaders to discuss advancements to the Ukraine peace process.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the latest updates on the peace talks.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels.

·       The EU-Angola Ministerial Meeting begins in Brussels.

·       The EU-Lebanon Association Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (November)

·       Romania Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts/ Producer & Import Prices (November)             

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (November)/ Auto Production (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Construction Output Q3

·       Serbia Building Permits (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September & October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Global

·       The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) General Council meeting begins in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (on the 2334 resolution).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal event in Quebec.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Non-Farm Payrolls (October & November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Average Hourly Earnings (October & November)/ Government Payrolls (October & November)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (October & November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (November)/ Redbook (December/13)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Business Inventories (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/12)/ Building Permits (September & October)/ Housing Starts (September, October, & November)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh celebrates Victory Day, marking independence from Pakistan in 1971.

·       Today is Kazakhstan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks at the AusPayNet Summit in Sydney.

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (November)/ Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update          / Credit Card Spending (November)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/16)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)     

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Singapore           Non-Oil Exports (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q4/ Cash Remittances (October)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is scheduled to vote on the compromise EU-Mercosur Agreement package.  However, France has thrown a last-minute wrench into the schedule, asking for a delay in the vote, which may sink the entire deal.

·       The 24th Accession Conference with Montenegro begins in Brussels.

·       The EU Environment Council meets in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Commission is likely to announce it will soften the bloc’s emissions targets after mounting pressure from automakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the 7th BdP biannual Forum on Regulatory & European affairs B20 in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at a green finance research event in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (October)/ Claimant Count Change (November)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ZEW Current Conditions (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Italy Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (November)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Bahrain National Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa celebrates the Day of Reconciliation, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on the Middle East (Yemen) followed by consultations – the Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on 2745 sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on SC subsidiary organs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s FX Market Structure Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a discussion on the economic outlook before the Gwinnett County Chamber of Commerce.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Yale University CEO Summit, New York, New York.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/12)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Business Inventories (October)

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (October)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Semicon Japan begins in in Tokyo.  The even brings together more than 1,200 tech companies and organizations to show off the latest advancements in technology and AI.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q4/ Current Account Q3

·       Japan Machinery Orders (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (November)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (December)/ Lending Facility Rate (December)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Western Balkans Summit begins in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI Input (November)/ PPI Output (November)/ Retail Price Index (November)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)         

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (December)/ Ifo Current Conditions (December)/ Ifo Expectations (December)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ Wage Growth Q3

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (October)/ Residential Property Prices (October)

·       Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Belarus GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 18, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (ONWAS), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will vote on draft resolutions to renew mandates of -UNDOF -MONUSCO – AUSSOM – CTE.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)/ Average Weekly Earnings (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December)/ Philly Fed Employment (December)/ Philly Fed New Orders (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/12)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (December)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/17)/ CB Leading Index (October & November)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (October)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Hainan Free Trade Port opens, making it the largest free trade zone in China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/13)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)        

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (November)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets in Brussels through December 19.  EU national leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine, Gaza, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, and next steps on EU enlargement.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Meets to decide on Interest Rates; ECB Press Conference

·       The Bank of England meets to make an Interest Rate Decision and releases Meeting Minutes.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at DIW conference "Fiscal Policy, Debt, and Inequality" in Berlin, Germany.

·       UK British Retail Consortium December Consumer Sentiment Monitor

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)

·       France Business Confidence (December)/ Business Climate Indicator (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November)/ Employment Growth (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (October)

·       Serbia Current Account (October)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/12)

·       Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (November)

Friday, December 19, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Libya sanctions. This will be followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for the Department of Justice to release the files related to its investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, after Congress passed a bill compelling its release.

·       The US Congress is scheduled to break for its Christmas recess.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q3/ Private Spending Q3

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Argentina           Consumer Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       USA Existing Home Sales (November)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/19)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Colombia Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japan-Central Asia Summit begins in Tokyo.  It is the first-ever summit of leaders from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan with Japanese leadership and is aimed at improving greater trade among all the nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets on Interest rates.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ ANZ Business Confidence (December)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (November

·       Australia Housing Credit (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)/ Commodity Prices (December)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/12)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold a televised event that blends his annual press conference with a nationwide call-in show.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion organized by the Aspen Institute Italia in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Economics Winter Workshop organized by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JAN/ PPI (November)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (November)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (November)/ CBI Distributive Trades (December)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (October)

·       France PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q3

·       Euro Area ECB Wage Tracker Q4/ Current Account (October)/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (December)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy Business Confidence (December)/ Current Account (October)/ Industrial Sales (October)/ Construction Output (October)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (December)/ PPI (November)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Slovakia Current Account (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (November)

Saturday, December 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Mercosur Summit of leaders from the South American trading bloc countries due to meet and possibly sign the Mercosur-EU trade deal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 21, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.