The Global Week Ahead

Dec 22

US – Russia Negotiations with Ukraine Continue, ASEAN Leaders to Hold Emergency Meeting on Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict, the US Puts Further Pressure on Venezuela, and Global Markets Are Quiet This Week

The world is quickly sliding into the Christmas week, hoping for peace and goodwill everywhere. Two examples of that are the ongoing talks led by US Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who held yet another round of talks with Russian negotiators in Miami yesterday, seeking a Ukraine peace deal. While the Trump Administration is suggesting that some small gains are being made, their Russian counterparts say nothing is moving. And from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address and question-and-answer call-in session last week, Russia has no intention of ending this war until it has achieved total victory over Ukraine. More talks are being scheduled in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers are gathering in Kuala Lumpur this week to see if they can de-escalate the growing conflict between Cambodia and Thailand. Recall President Trump announced earlier this month that he had negotiated a ceasefire, but that has since broken down as the two sides blame each other for renewed fighting on the border. At the time of this writing, reports indicate that the two sides have again agreed to meet to discuss a new ceasefire.

Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to escalate, with the US Naval and Coast Guard forces seizing a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. All three tankers are known to be flying false flags of operation and being part of a larger Venezuelan black market oil sales in contravention of sanctions on the country. One interesting aspect of the US pressure campaign is how this is negatively impacting Cuba, which has been a strong supporter – politically and militarily – of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s regime. As the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, the Cuban regime’s economy is close to collapse, with widespread blackouts and an estimated 25 percent of the population having fled the country in recent months.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, with the Christmas holiday, there isn't much that markets are watching for in terms of data releases or central bank action. The big events in the US will be the release of the delayed Q3 GDP, October durable goods orders, and November industrial production, all coming out on Tuesday. Also out on Tuesday will be the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for December.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will give a speech on Christmas Day on the Japanese economic outlook. And in Europe, there are no significant data releases scheduled.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week. We hope you have a very Merry Christmas!

Sunday, December 21, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Russian and US negotiators, led by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, meet in Miami to talk further about a peace deal in Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting an informal meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States in St. Petersburg through December 22.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

· Today is São Tomé Day, a national holiday in the African nation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 22, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Economic Activity (October)

· Canada PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

· Argentina Economic Activity (October)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysia hosts a special ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting on Thailand–Cambodia border tensions.

· China's legislature will convene through Dec. 27 to consider 14 bills, including revisions to the Foreign Trade Law that would expand trade countermeasures.

· Japan’s Niigata Assembly meets to vote on restarting reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear plant.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (November)

· Hong Kong Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

· India Infrastructure Output (November)

· Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Current Account Q3/ Business Investment Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)/ Central Government Debt (November)

· Greece Current Account (October)

· Italy PPI (November)

· Poland Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

· Spain Balance of Trade (October)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (October)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, a national holiday.

· The annual Africa and Diaspora Integration Summit convenes in Lagos, Nigeria.

· The International Conference on African Studies and Global Africa meets in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security, including the rising tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Office of the US Trade Representative is expected to deliver a Section 301 investigative report on Chinese domination of the semiconductor industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (December)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

· Canada GDP (October)/ GDP Prel (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

· USA Durable Goods Orders (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Corporate Profits Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Redbook (December/20)/ Industrial Production (October and November)/ Capacity Utilization (October and November)/ Manufacturing Production (October and November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Shipments Index (December)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/19)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly

· Colombia Balance of Trade (October)/ Imports (October)

· El Salvador Current Account Q3

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

· Argentina Current Account Q3

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the birthday of Japanese Emperor Akihito, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

· Malaysia Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Index (October)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

· Taiwan Export Orders (November)

· India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Union New Car Registrations (November)

· Germany Import Prices (November)

· Hungary Current Account Q3

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (November)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Federal Government is closed per an Executive Order by President Trump in celebration of Christmas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chile PPI (November)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (November)

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/19)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/20)/ 15- and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

· Canada Budget Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Economic Index (October)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· India M3 Money Supply (December/12)

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Russia Corporate Profits (October)/ Industrial Production (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 25, 2025

Global

· It is Christmas Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to the Councilors of Keidanren.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/20)/ Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Turkey Business Confidence (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Federal Government is shut in honor of Christmas per an Executive Order issued by President Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Bank Lending (November)

· Paraguay Current Account Q3

· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/26)

· Argentina Retail Sales (October)

· Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Vietnam Mobility Show will take place in Hanoi through December 28 with a focus on electric cars and motorbikes including hybrids. Companies are expected to offer discounts and test drives, while exhibitors will provide demonstrations on charging electric vehicles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production Prel (November)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Singapore Industrial Production (November)

· India Bank Loan Growth (December/12)/ Deposit Growth (December/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

The Global Week Ahead

International Economy Magazine: EU Bonds - Is Europe Playing with Fire?

The Global Week Ahead