Fulcrum Perspectives
An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.
Recommended Weekend Reads
The Incredible Global Birth Crash, NATO’s Nightmare, the Realignment of Tech Supply Chains, and Calculating the Rise of Anger in Political Communications
August 21 - 23, 2026
Below are several reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.
Demographic Trends
The Incredible Global Birth Crash Nicholas Eberstadt & Patrick Norrick/American Enterprise Institute
We are in the midst of a headlong global birth crash—a plunge underway all around the world, in rich and poor regions alike, very possibly presaging an indefinite global depopulation, with our “peak human” moment coming shockingly soon. For many decades, demographers assumed that the postwar drop in worldwide birth rates would lead to an eventual equilibrium, with childbearing converging in one region after another at a little over two births per woman, the level required for long-term replacement. No longer. Instead, it is now apparent that we are witnessing a spreading worldwide march into the terra incognita of prolonged sub-replacement fertility, with no hints yet of how far humanity’s birth rates will ultimately fall, or when—if ever—they will recover.
Economists should be worried about birth rates Noah Pinion Substack
Recently, a lot of people (including myself, but also prominent economists) have begun worrying about low fertility rates. Across all countries — poor as well as rich — fertility just keeps going down and down, with no floor in sight. This presents two distinct dangers: population aging and population shrinkage. Aging, rather mechanically, creates a burden for young people, because you have more retirees who have to be supported by each worker, either through taxes or through family support. It also might reduce productivity, for example if older managers are less innovative, but that’s more speculative. Population shrinkage, meanwhile, is a threat to total GDP, which you might care about if you want your country to be more powerful. There’s also the possibility that a smaller population might reduce growth — by reducing the opportunities for specialization, or by reducing the available pool of researchers.
America’s Debt Crisis
America’s Risky Debt: What Markets See That Policymakers Don’t Hanno Lustig Aspen Economic Strategy Group
Abstract: The goal of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and Congress should be to restore complete price discovery in US Treasury markets. Price discovery ensures that fiscal policymakers in Congress get accurate signals from the bond market about how much fiscal space they have left. To achieve that outcome, the Fed has to commit not to intervene in bond markets, except in narrowly defined circumstances. Currently, the Fed and financial regulators implicitly maintain the view that US Treasurys are safe, even as the premium that investors are willing to pay for their safety has been eroded. When Treasurys sell off in response to adverse fiscal news, Fed officials are likely to interpret the move as a plumbing problem in Treasury markets and respond by absorbing a large share of issuance onto the Fed’s balance sheet. That response hampers price discovery by muting the price signals that Congress relies on to assess debt sustainability, encouraging them to postpone the inevitable fiscal correction.
Dollar dominance: dissatisfaction without displacement Massimilian Castelli/OMFIF
Predictions of the demise of the dollar have become a recurring feature of the international monetary debate. Every geopolitical crisis, every discussion of sanctions and every sign of China’s economic rise has produced a new wave of forecasts announcing the end of dollar dominance. Yet the dominant position of the dollar has proved remarkably resilient. The reason is that most observers focus on what central banks hold today rather than on how reserve managers are thinking about tomorrow. Reserve portfolios adjust only slowly. The international monetary system has entered a new phase best described as ‘dissatisfaction without displacement’. Confidence in some of the institutional foundations of dollar dominance is gradually eroding, yet reserve portfolios remain overwhelmingly anchored to the dollar because no credible alternative ecosystem has yet emerged. The debate is no longer centered solely on fiscal deficits or inflation; Increasing attention is being paid to issues that until recently were largely absent from discussions among reserve managers. These include the independence of the Federal Reserve, the rule of law, political polarization, transparency of public institutions and the growing use of financial sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy.These concerns do not imply an imminent loss of confidence in the dollar. However, they do suggest that the assumptions supporting its long-term dominance are no longer taken for granted.
Trade, Tariffs, and Sanctions
The Realignment of Tech Supply Chains: Lessons from U.S. Trade Sanctions against Huawei The British Academy/Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Since 2019, the United States has deployed various policy instruments—including tariffs, export controls, investment bans, and sanctions—to block Huawei’s access to advanced U.S. technologies and limit its international expansion. Despite these efforts, the Chinese smartphone company has not only survived but thrived, recovering its global market share and improving its high-end chip production. In a new study, Elisa Oreglia, Thais Lobo, and James Burroughs of King’s College London the corporation’s rebound to a combination of short-term tactics and long-term strategies that permitted it to adapt to, work around, and blunt the impact of U.S. sanctions. Far from crippling Huawei and “achieving decoupling,” the authors conclude, “the U.S. measures have triggered supply chain realignment,” as the company—with support of the Chinese state—has diversified its sources of critical software and hardware. Huawei’s adaptability reveals the limitations of U.S. trade sanctions as a weapon of technology competition.
The Great Transshipment Scam: Rise, Scope, and Costs Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy/The White House
White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro published this report past week a paper arguing that the US “faces a growing challenge from the illegal transshipment of goods through third countries to evade applicable tariffs and other trade remedies.” He goes on to argue that “exporters in higher-tariff jurisdictions can abuse differences in US tariff treatment across countries to route goods through lower-tariff jurisdictions before entering the American market.” He offers a number of “remedies” to fix this challenge.
How Much Did Labor Productivity Gains Offset the Inflationary Impact of the 2025 Tariffs? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
This study found that In 2025, the sectors that were more affected by tariffs relative to other sectors experienced significantly greater labor productivity growth, mitigating the cost increases induced by the new trade policy. The sectors that were more exposed to tariffs also experienced a decline in the labor share-the proportion of a sector’s value-added that’s allocated to worker compensation-implying relatively higher profits and return to capital in these sectors. Mapping production costs to aggregate core inflation indicates that on net, tariffs and labor productivity gains contributed an estimated 0.5 percentage point to core PCE inflation in 2025. Wage growth added another 1.9 percentage points. If these cost components’ combined contribution to inflation was only 2.4 percentage points, then tariffs alone may not explain the persistence of 3 percent core PCE inflation last year.
Europe and The Future of NATO
NATO’s Nightmare Simon Shuster/The Atlantic
Western military planners do not seem eager to talk about their nightmare scenario, much less prepare for it. But they tend to agree on how it would begin: a coordinated, near-simultaneous attack on opposite sides of the planet, in which Russia targets a NATO member in Eastern Europe while China makes its move against Taiwan. The U.S. military would need to react on two fronts at once—three if it remains at war in the Middle East. “Let’s just say this is the scenario we’re currently not ready for,” Florence Gaub, the director of the research division at the NATO Defense College, one of the alliance’s main academies for officers, in Rome, told me. NATO strategists remain “keenly aware” of this gap in their planning, Gaub, who specializes in the forecasting and analysis of future threats, said. But they have not taken steps to fill that gap.
Security at what cost? Defence spending, growth, and the fiscal arithmetic European Stability Mechanism Blog
Europe faces increased security financing needs that bring both challenges and opportunities. At the 2025 Hague Summit, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies committed to raising core defense spending toward 3.5% of GDP, well above the old 2% benchmark. This would mean an extra €45 billion a year for the euro area until 2035. While on paper the target looks like a straightforward bill for taxpayers, recent analysis presented in the Euro Area Stability Watch suggests it is more nuanced: when defense spending supports investment, innovation, and productivity, part of the initial cost can be recovered through higher growth and tax revenue.
Germany’s Military Recruitment Crisis is about to Test Berlin’s Rhetoric Defense Priorities
Last year, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced his intention to turn the country’s armed forces into “Europe’s strongest conventional army.” Since he came into office, Merz’s government has been outspoken about the need to reduce Europe’s dependence on an increasingly unreliable United States and prepare the continent to face the Russian threat without Washington’s aid. Against this backdrop, the publication in April of Germany’s new military strategy document, which laid out ambitious targets for rapidly expanding German defense capabilities, has been widely heralded as yet another sign that Berlin is determined to carry much of the burden of continental defense. A look beyond this rhetoric, however, reveals a country still far off from turning its proclaimed vision of becoming a serious military power into reality. For months, both German officials and the general public have engaged in an intense debate about one of the key components in Berlin’s rearmament efforts: increasing the size of the Bundeswehr, as the German military is known. So far, the government has bet on a voluntary military service model, but that has failed to hit its recruitment targets.
Angry Tweets and Campaign Speeches
The Rise of Anger: Emotions and Policy Views Yann Algan, Eva Davoine, Thomas Renault, and Stefanie Stantcheva/Harvard University & the National Bureau of Economic Research
Abstract: In this paper, we document the rise of anger in U.S. political communication and study its effects on policy views. We combine online and offline data, including the full record of congressional floor speeches since the 1870s, tweets from members of Congress, tweets from voters matched to electoral registries, campaign speeches, and Reddit comments. Anger in U.S. congressional speeches has risen sharply in the last decade, reaching its highest level in a century and a half. In voter tweets, the share of policy-related sentences expressing anger rises 35% between 2013 and 2025. In tweets by members of Congress, the angry-sentence share rises by 72%. Angry tweets by members of Congress or by voters receive around 60% more retweets relative to tweets with no emotion. Our two experiments show that negative emotions increase support for protectionism, restrictive immigration policies, and redistribution. Positive emotions mainly improve perceptions and reduce support for populism. Anger also changes climate policy views, while fear has no detectable effect. Building on the ACTORC framework of Bordalo et al. (2026), our model shows how emotions direct attention toward different features of policy problems. Overall, emotions shape both engagement and policy views.
Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
Crypto, Prediction Markets, and Blockchain in Focus This Week, and Otherwise, Nothing Is Going On in Washington
August 17 - 21, 2026
The quiet in Washington during August is a wonderful thing. Little to no traffic, a sizeable reduction in political fisticuffs, and a great time to catch up on your reading. But that does not mean nothing is going on. This week, crypto, prediction markets, and blockchain are having a moment in the sun.
First, the White House is reportedly hosting a meeting on Wednesday that will bring together the CEOs of several leading crypto and prediction market firms, along with the CEOs of all the major exchanges (but no formal announcement has come out of the White House yet). It has yet to be confirmed, but it appears President Trump will host the event along with CFTC Chair Michael Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins. The agenda has yet to be announced, but our sources tell us it is more likely to be a rallying event to push the Senate to get to a deal on the CLARITY Act.
The meeting comes right after the annual Wyoming Blockchain Symposium where SEC Chair Atkins will be speaking (along with Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and several other senators). And it comes a day before the CFTC’s inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting where crypto will be the main topic.
Other than these three events, Washington is wonderfully quiet. Hope you are enjoying it as much as we are. Let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· The Senate is in recess until September 14.
House of Representatives
· The House is in August recess until September 7.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
The White House
· Wednesday, August 19, Time TBD: The White House is expected to host a gathering of officials from the prediction markets and cryptocurrency industries. The event will be hosted by President Trump and CFTC Chair Michael Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins will also attend. We understand the CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Polymarket, Kalshi, Nasdaq, the CME, and the New York Stock Exchange will also attend. The event appears to be aimed at boosting efforts to get the CLARITY Act unstuck in the Senate.
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
Speeches –
· There are no speeches scheduled at this time.
Conferences –
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Tuesday, August 18, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins is scheduled to speak at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
· Wednesday, August 19, Time TBD: SEC Chair Paul Atkins is scheduled to participate at an event at the White House bringing together leaders from the crypto and prediction markets along with the CEOs of the major exchanges.
· Thursday, August 20, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· Wednesday, August 19, Time TBD: CFTC Chair Michael Selig is scheduled to participate at an event at the White House bringing together leaders from the crypto and prediction markets along with the CEOs of the major exchanges.
· Thursday, August 20, 1:00 p.m. – The CFTC’s inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting will take place. According to a recent press release, the committee “was created to advise the Commission on complex issues at the intersection of technology, law, policy, and finance. This council of American innovators, entrepreneurs, thinkers, and builders will provide insights and recommendations to the Commission to help ensure its regulations keep pace with the rapid speed of innovation on the new frontier of finance.”
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· Wednesday, August 19, 2:10 p.m. (MT) – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould speaks at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· Tuesday, August 18, 1:00 p.m. – SIFMA holds a member briefing on Trump Accounts & IRAs.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· Monday – Thursday, August 17 – 20: The Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026 takes place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Speakers include Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), and Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
The Global Week Ahead
The US-Iran MOU Expires with the US Promising Tougher Economic Sanctions, The US and Canada Close in on a Tariff Deal, China and India Hold High-Level Security Talks, and Markets Await Global Inflation Reports
August 16 - 23, 2026
So much for hopes of a quiet August. The US-Iran 15 Point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is set to expire Monday, with little hope of revival. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will now move to impose new economic sanctions on Iran that will be “unprecedented.” President Trump also said in a speech last week that the measures that are coming as soon as this week will be on a scale that has “Never been seen.”
As to the specifics of the forthcoming sanctions, speculation has focused on the US imposing sanctions on Chinese independent oil refineries known as “teapots.” They reportedly account for more than 25 percent of all Chinese refinery capacity, and China has traditionally purchased more than 80 percent of Iran's shipped oil. Also reported to be in Trump's focus are Chinese banks that have funded the processing of Iranian oil for production and shipment.
The big question is whether President Trump is willing to announce such tough sanctions on Chinese entities in advance of Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit to the US in September, risking the cancellation of the summit?
Additionally, Treasury is considering imposing sanctions on any land-based trade, focusing on Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. In the face of such sanctions, Iran hit two tankers this weekend with drones, and the risk of more strikes is likely to increase if and when the sanctions are announced.
Meanwhile, Washington and Ottawa are racing to strike a trade deal before Wednesday when President Trump’s new 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods goes into effect. Reports suggest the outlines of a deal are close, with Canadian concessions including new trade in oil, gas, critical minerals, and promises to increase defense spending.
New Delhi will be a busy place this week as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrives for talks with Indian officials to participate in the 24th round of talks on the Indian-Chinese border. But there will be separate side talks between Wang and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar on trade and investment issues. China sees an opportunity to improve historically chilly relations with India as the US and India have yet to finalize a trade deal and India wants to ensure “strategic autonomy”, so the country is not too dependent on either the US or China. Additionally, the talks are seen as a way for China to help shape the agenda for the upcoming BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi next month.
Wang then flies to South Korea for talks – the first time a Chinese foreign minister has visited Seoul in over five years. Wang will discuss North Korea’s nuclear program and broader security issues on the Korean Peninsula. The meetings take place just as the US and South Korean military drills – Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises – were set to begin this week and run through the rest of the month. However, late Sunday President Trump tweeted out on his Truth Social account that, “Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea…” he was not happy with the US participating in joint military exercises with South Korea. He cited two reasons: the cost and South Korea’s supposed lack of support for the US war with Iran.
Looking at the global economic and financial market radar screen this week, the big focus of markets will be the global flash PMIs this Friday for the US, Germany, France, the UK, and Japan.
Looking regionally, the US Federal Reserve releases the July FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Also, out this week in the US are housing starts and permits and July industrial production, both out on Tuesday. Canada’s July inflation data is out Monday, and June retail sales figures are out Friday.
In Asia this week, markets will be watching for Japan’s Q2 GDP figures on Monday (the expectations being the economy grew by 0.5%) and national CPI on Friday. We will also get Japan’s machinery orders for June on Wednesday, trade balance numbers on Thursday, and nationwide July consumer price figures on Friday.
China releases retail sales, industrial sales (watching for a slowdown), housing prices, and fixed-asset investment numbers reports on Monday. And China’s loan prime rates will be set on Thursday (no change expected).
In Europe this week, the flash August PMIs for Germany, France, and the Eurozone are out on Friday. Germany’s ZEW Survey is out on Tuesday. Also out on Friday is the European Central Bank’s July Consumer expectations survey. The UK releases a flood of data this week, the biggest being the labor market data on Tuesday, July inflation figures on Wednesday, and flash August PMI and retail sales on Friday. Sweden’s Riksbank is out with its interest rate decision on Thursday.
Finally, we are moving toward the home stretch of major corporate earnings this week with Home Depot, Target, Walmart, John Deere, and Analog Devices all reporting in the US and Alibaba and Baidu reporting in China.
Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:
Sunday, August 16, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Brazil’s 2026 election campaign season formally begins (the elections are in October).
· Today is Restoration Day in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In Malaysia, the Democratic Action Party will vote on whether to leave Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's government.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· In Durban, South Africa, the 46th Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, August 17, 2026
Global
· The June US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and ceasefire are set to expire.
· The BRICS Youth Energy Summit (virtual) runs through August 18th.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· White House Special Envoy for Peace Jared Kushner traveled to Egypt Sunday for meetings with Hamas leadership and then on to Israel today to discuss the situation in Gaza. The announcement came from a spokesman for the for the Board of Peace. Kushner is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Accompanying Kushner will be former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Gaza Board of Peace Head Nickolay Mladenov. The meetings come following Israel’s rejection of the Board’s 15-point peace plan, stating that until Hamas “truly disarmed” Israel could not accept a deal.
· The annual Wyoming Blockchain Symposium begins in Jackson Hole, running until Thursday. The invitation-only, 500-person event brings together investors, entrepreneurs and policymakers involved in digital assets. Speakers include SEC Chair Paul Atkins.
· Today is San Martin Day in Argentina, honoring José de San Martín. It is a national holiday and financial markets are closed.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (August)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Common (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (June)
· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (August)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)
· Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In China, The Ministry for Foreign Affairs resumes its routine daily press briefings. The briefings had gone into hiatus from August 3-14 for the annual closed-door Beidaihe leadership retreat — the informal Chinese Communist Party conclave where senior and retired leaders discuss personnel and policy. Reporting suggests this year's discussions centered on Party discipline, economic headwinds, and preparation for the October Fifth Plenary Session (focused on "comprehensive and strict governance of the Party") ahead of the 21st Party Congress next year.
· The US and South Korea hold their joint Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise which runs through August 27th. Approximately 8,000 Republic of Korea (ROK) troops plus personnel from 11 other UN Command member states will participate. While this is a US-ROK drill, Japan is expected to be on heightened alert throughout this timeframe Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has already activated emergency response protocols for recent North Korean missile launches (which were fired off on August 6th and 11th, respectively), in the event Pyongyang tests again during the exercise period, which is historically likely.
· Today is Liberation Day in South Korea, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed.
· Today is Independence Day in Indonesia, a national holiday.
· South Korea’s Democratic Party is expected to elect its next party leader. So far, Kim Min-seok is leading the Democratic Party's leadership race with a cumulative 52.21% of votes cast in regional primaries.
· Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul will begin a trip to Australia and New Zealand.
· The Thailand-U.S. Trade & Investment Summit takes place in Bangkok.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (July)/ Services NZ PSI (July)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)/ Food Inflation (July)
· Japan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2 / GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June) / Tertiary Industry Index (June)
· Singapore Balance of Trade (July)/ Non-Oil Exports (July)
· China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)
· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)
· India Unemployment Rate (July)
· EARNINGS: BitFuFu, HTHT, Geely Automobile Holdings, National Australia Bank, Aurizon
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Russian FM Sergey Lavrov will hold talks with Ghana Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa in Moscow. Ablakwa is there for a working visit through August 19th.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a panel "Europe’s Defense Build-Up: Macroeconomic, Fiscal, and Financial Stability Challenges" at Annual Congress of the European Economic Association in Dublin, Ireland.
· Belarus Industrial Production (July)
· EARNINGS: BHP Group
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Israel’s Likud Party holds its primary to choose Knesset members.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Gabon, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.
· The UN General Assembly will hold a solemn session in tribute to the memory of His Highness the Father Amir of the State of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, convened at the request of the Mission of Qatar.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· There will be primaries in Florida, Alaska and Wyoming, Special election in California’s 14th Congressional District.
· In Oakland, California, opening statements are due to be made in a landmark federal court trial brought by 29 states, alleging Meta improperly captured data from minors, designed its social media platforms to addict children and misled the public about their safety.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Canada Housing Starts (July)
· USA Housing Starts (July)/ Building Permits (July)/ Import/Export Prices (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Pending Home Sales (July)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (August)/ Redbook (August/15)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/14)
· Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)
· El Salvador PPI (July)
· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision
· EARNINGS: Home Depot, Toll Brothers, Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to India for the 24th round of the Special Representatives' Talks on the China-India Boundary Question with Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, plus a separate bilateral meeting with Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar. This is Wang's first India trip in roughly a year and comes as Beijing and New Delhi work to stabilize ties after prior border tensions — notable timing given it lands right alongside the BRICS Tourism Ministers' meetings in Jaipur.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (August)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (August)
· Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)
· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (July)
· EARNINGS: Baidu, VNET
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Ukraine’s Parliament returns from a month-long recess. This will be the body’s first chance to formally appoint a new permanent defense minister following Mykhailo Fedorov's dismissal in July. Acting Defense Minister Maj. Gen. Yevhenii Khmara is the likely replacement but there is some question as to whether he is ready to leave active military duty yet.
· Russia's President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with President of Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing, who will be on an official visit to Russia.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on an EEA-ECB panel "Monetary Policy in a Geopolitically Fragmented World" at Annual Congress of the European Economic Association in Ireland, Dublin.
· UK Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (June)/ Claimant Count Change (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)/ Labour Productivity Q2
· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ ZEW Current Conditions (August)
· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
· Spain Balance of Trade (June)
· Ireland Balance of Trade (June)
· EARNINGS: Klarna
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia (arriving in Riyadh on August 18) and Oman (arriving in Muscat on August 20th) from August 17th to 22nd. He will meet with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud and Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi to address regional maritime security and de-escalation.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Israel Unemployment Rate (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Global
· The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is expected to launch their Panorama of Productive Development Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean annual report.
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold its annual open debate on working methods. The meeting will focus on the implementation of Danish presidential note S/2024/507 to enhance transparency, inclusivity, and efficiency.
· The 2nd BRICS Tourism Working Group Meeting takes place in Jaipur, India. The meeting will focus on focused on AI in tourism, sustainable/responsible tourism, skills development, and travel facilitation.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US’ 50% tariff on over 500 Canadian products worth close to $20 billion goes into effect. Since President Trump threatened the tariffs, trade talks have intensified sharply between Ottawa and Washington. Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on August 11th — their third meeting in as many weeks. As of now, it appears a possible emerging framework to avoid the draconian tariffs would have the US roll back the 50% threat and reduce Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber, in exchange for Canada eliminating retaliatory auto tariffs, easing provincial restrictions on US alcohol sales, and reworking dairy quota arrangements. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has repeatedly said Canada "will not accept a bad deal," while maintaining talks are "constructive." Analysts we have spoken to caution a comprehensive deal likely requires direct Carney-Trump engagement rather than being finalized at the negotiator level — worth watching for a leaders' call or meeting this week as the deadline lands.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board FOMC Minutes released
· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/14)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (August/14)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/14)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/14)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/14)
· Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)
· Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (June)
· EARNINGS: Analog Devices, Target, Lowe’s, Estee Lauder, Viking, Carlyle Group, TJX Cos.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to begin a two-day visit to South Korea through August 20th. This is the first time a Chinese foreign minister has traveled to South Korea for bilateral talks in five years. South Korea plans to urge Beijing to reaffirm the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and help encourage Pyongyang to return to dialogue, following recent high-level exchanges between China and North Korea. Discussions will cover strategic cooperation, trade, and managing regional stability amidst broader U.S.-China dynamics. But the meeting will also see China use the occasion to reiterate its position on the "one China" principle, while Seoul may raise maritime boundary and Yellow Sea structure concerns.
· In Beijing, the World Robot Conference begins, running until Sunday. The event showcases the latest advances in humanoid robots and other high-tech machines. According to Nikkei Asia, with government backing, China is making a major push to cement itself as the leading force in the emerging field. Another robotics event, the World Humanoid Robot Games, is scheduled to start Saturday in the Chinese capital, featuring a record 2,056 robots from 666 teams, according to state media. The highly anticipated Shanghai IPO of leading humanoid maker Unitree is expected during the week as well.
· Today is Revolution Day in Vietnam, marking the historic 1945 August Revolution led by Ho Chi Minh.
· The AI Summit Seoul & Expo takes place and runs through Aug. 21st.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks at the Queensland Futures Institute Annual Regions Summit in Brisbane.
· Japan Machinery Orders (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchase
· Australia Wage Price Index Q2/ RBA Hauser Speech
· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision (August)/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)/ Loan Growth (July)
· New Zealand PPI Input Q2/ New Zealand PPI Output Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/18)
· EARNINGS: Weibo, Toyo Solar, Full Truck Alliance, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Hungarian President-elect Andras Baka takes office after his election by parliament, succeeding the Viktor Orban-allied predecessor, who was ousted less than halfway through his five-year term.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion titled "Global Economic Outlook" at the World Economic Forum's International Business Council (IBC) meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. Lagarde’s attendance is expected to prompt renewed speculation she may exit the ECB early.
· UK Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI Output (July)/ PPI Input (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)
· Euro Area Current Account (June)/ Current Account s.a (June)/ CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ ECB
· Italy Current Account (June)
· Russia PPI (July)
· Belarus GDP (July)
· Switzerland Industrial Production Q2
· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)
· Poland Consumer Confidence (August)
· Serbia Current Account (June)
· Ireland Residential Property Prices (June)
· EARNINGS: Carlsberg
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Africa Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)
Thursday, August 20, 2026
Global
· The UN Security Council (UNSC) is scheduled to hold closed consultations to discuss the 90-day report on the work of the 1718 Committee | Security Council - the United Nations (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea Sanctions Committee).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Brazil BCB National Monetary Council Meeting
· Canada New Housing Price Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/15)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/08)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Philly Fed Employment (August)/ Philly Fed New Orders (August)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (August)/ CB Leading Index (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/19)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/14)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/20)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/20)
· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Argentina Consumer Confidence (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Activity (June)/ Leading Indicator (July)
· Peru Current Account Q2
· EARNINGS: Walmart, Ross Stores, John Deere, Advanced Auto Parts, Flux Power
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Bangladesh holds presidential elections.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y (August)/ Loan Prime Rate 5Y (August)
· India Infrastructure Output (July)/ HSBC Composite PMI Flash (August)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (August)
· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Employment Change (July)/ Full Time Employment Chg (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Part Time Employment Chg (July)/ Participation Rate (July)
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/14)/ Central Government Debt (July)
· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/15)
· Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
· Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2
· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)
· EARNINGS: Alibaba, Futu, ATHM, Dago New Energy, AIA
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is National Day in Hungary – also known as St. Stephen’s Day – commemorating the founding of the Hungarian state and the canonization of its first king, Stephen I. It is a national holiday and financial markets are closed.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)/ GfK Consumer Confidence (August)
· Germany PPI (July)
· Euro Area Construction Output (June)/ Labor Cost Index Flash Q2/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
· Slovakia Current Account (June)
· Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)
· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)
· Greece Current Account (June)
· EARNINGS: Fortescue, Hays
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· The annual meeting of the Egyptian-Qatari Joint Higher Committee, co-chaired by Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Badr Abdelatty, is scheduled to be held in El Alamein, Egypt. The meeting will review progress on economic ties, trade, and strategic investments between Egypt and Qatar. It will also seek to coordinate joint diplomatic efforts to de-escalate Middle East tensions, ensure energy security, and maintain freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Israel Inflation Expectations (August)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen gives a speech on The Importance of Independent Central Banks in an Unstable World in Paramaribo, Suriname.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Africa Building Permits (June)
· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate
Friday, August 21, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (June)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey
· USA S&P Global Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMI Flash (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/21)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/21)
· Argentina Retail Sales (June)
· Mexico Retail Sales (June)
· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)
· Peru GDP Growth Rate Q2
· EARNINGS: BJ’s
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India's annual Economic Times World Leaders Forum will take place in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the conference as well as a number of major international business leaders including SunLife CEO Kevin Strain, Boston Consulting Group CEO Christoph Schweizer, and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (August)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (August)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/07)/ Deposit Growth (August/07)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/14)
· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI Flash (August)
· South Korea PPI (July)
· Indonesia Current Account Q2/ M2 Money Supply (July)
· Turkey Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)
· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Credit Card Spending (July)
· Japan Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash (August)
· EARNINGS: Beke, Ping An Insurance
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· UK Retail Sales (July)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI Flash (August)/ GfK Consumer Confidence (August)
· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI Flash (August)
· France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)/ S&P Global Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMI Flash (August)
· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI Flash (August)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2
· Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q2/ Wholesale Prices (July)
· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (July)
· Poland Business Confidence (August)
· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ PPI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2
Saturday, August 22, 2026
Global
· Pope Leo XIV is scheduled to make a half-day visit to the Republic of San Marino. He will then travel on to Rimini, Italy to participate in a “Meeting for Friendship Among Peoples,” an annual Catholic cultural festival.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Construction Cost Index (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, August 23, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In Kazakhstan, legislative elections are held for all 145 seats of their parliament (Kurultai).
· Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will make an annual address to mark the independence of the city-state. Seen as his keynote political speech for the year, Wong is expected to address how his government can further support families as the Southeast Asian financial hub struggles with raising its birth rate.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead
· August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
· August 29 – 30: The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.
· August 31 – September 1: The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.
· September 1 – 2: There will be a G20 Innovation Ministerial held in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.
· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.
· September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.
· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.
· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.
· September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.
· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.
· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.
· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.
· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.
· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
· November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.
· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.
· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.
· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.
· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.
The Global Week Ahead
Talks To Reopen the Strait of Hormuz Continue, Senior Chinese Officials Gather for Domestic Policy Talks, A New Defense Alliance Forms in the Middle East, and Markets Focus on Inflation Reports
August 9 - 16, 2026
It will be a relatively quiet week ahead geopolitically. Most major capitals are quiet as political leaders and parliaments are out for the August holidays. The one major issue that will continue to keep markets focused is the negotiations between Iran and Oman to establish a temporary framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Iranian leaders made clear this past weekend that for the Strait to reopen, the US must commit to a series of concessions.
For now, the US is not directly part of the talks with Oman and Iran. Those talks are focused on creating a system whereby Iran and Oman would control the entry and exit points for commercial shipping. Iran is reportedly demanding a return to the June 17th Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US, which would give Iran the opportunity to see economic sanctions lifted, ending the naval blockade, and eventually seeing Iran’s frozen assets released. But Iran also wants the US to give Iran compensation for damages caused by the war so far.
But tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are not the only major news coming out of the Middle East. Last week, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a joint mutual defense agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. The pact was created out of a joint sense of concern over how the US-Iran War has impacted their respective economies. While the announcement did not give specifics of what each country was committing or how the pact would develop, it is considered a major move by the three countries for the region. And it will be interesting to see how – if at all – ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi shipping and oil facilities might trigger assistance from Turkey and Pakistan.
Elsewhere, senior Chinese leaders are gathered in Beidaihe (a popular beach resort area on China’s Bohai Sea) for two weeks of discussions on domestic political and economic priorities and concerns – including chronic challenges with the Chinese property market crisis, youth unemployment, industrial overcapacity, and low household consumption.
Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is a fairly quiet week for economic reports. The big focus will be on inflation reports, the biggest being the US’ July CPI report out on Wednesday. Other major releases this week in the US include the University of Michigan Consumer Survey on Friday as well as the July retail report.
In Europe, the UK sees Q2 GDP figures released on Thursday. And in Asia, China releases inflation data on Sunday, and Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Survey on Monday. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday on interest rates, and the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from its July meeting on Monday.
Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:
Sunday, August 9, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is National Day in Singapore, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, August 10, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The American Meteorological Society publishes The State of the Climate in 2025, its annual peer-reviewed report on global warming.
· Ecuador celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
· The US Congress is out of session until early September.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Colombia Inflation Rate (July)
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
· EARNINGS: NuSkin, GoPro, Barrick, Embraer
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· The Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions from the last meeting. Japan’s Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Romania Balance of Trade (June)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Slovakia Industrial Production (June)
· Turkey Industrial Production (June)
· Slovenia Industrial Production (June)
· Greece Industrial Production (June)
· Belarus Inflation Rate (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)
· Israel Consumer Confidence (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Global
· The UN Global Compact Forward Faster Now | APAC Conference 2026 begins in Colombo, Sri Lanka and runs through August 12th. The conference brings together political and business leaders to discuss sustainability issues.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· South Carolina holds a primary vote to pick contenders for the Senate seat formerly held by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who died last month. Other primary elections are being held in the states of Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook (August/08)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stock Change (August/07)
· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Inflation Rate (July)
· México Industrial Production (June)
· Uruguay Industrial Production (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Vietnam’s President To Lam travels to Australia and New Zealand. Talks expected to focus on deepening economic and strategic ties. Building on the Vietnam-Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership established in 2024, the trip is expected to prioritize cooperation in science and technology, innovation, digital transformation and resilient supply chains, while also advancing collaboration in energy, infrastructure, food security, trade, investment and education. Bilateral trade between Vietnam and Australia reached $8.1 billion in the first half of 2026, up nearly 22% from a year earlier.
· Japan celebrates Mountain Day, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates. A press conference follows the meeting.
· Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)
· Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (July)
· Kazakhstan PPI (July)
· Malaysia Industrial Production (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· A Swiss parliamentary committee is expected to make its first recommendation on proposed tougher capital rules for UBS.
· Hungarian legislators meet to appoint a new candidate to the figurehead post of president.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)
· Ireland Construction PMI (July)
· Hungary Budget Balance (July)
· Slovakia Construction Output (June)
· Turkey Retail Sales (June)
· Italy Balance of Trade (June)
· Russia Balance of Trade (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Chad celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Egypt Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Unemployed Persons Q2/ Manufacturing Production (June)
Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Global
· A total solar eclipse visible in Greenland, Iceland, Portugal, Russia and Spain. Partial in most European countries, parts of Canada and northern Africa.
· OPEC publishes its monthly oil market report.
· The International Energy Administration publishes its monthly oil market report.
· The US Agriculture Department releases its monthly WASDE report on world crops production.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/07)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (August/07)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/07/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/07)/MBA Purchase Index (August/07)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ CPI s.a (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/07)/ WASDE Report/Monthly Budget Statement (July)
· Canada Building Permits (June)
· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)
· Peru Balance of Trade (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Cook Islands hold parliamentary elections.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)
· Singapore Current Account Q2/GDP Growth Rate Q2
· China Vehicle Sales (July)
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)
· Malaysia Retail Sales (June)
· India Inflation Rate (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)/31
· EARNINGS: Tokio Marine, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Tencent, Tui Group, Foxconn
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Norway’s sovereign wealth fund – the world’s largest – publishes its half-year reporting for 2026 and its updated list of total holdings
· Germany Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
· Romania Inflation Rate (July)/ Current Account (June)
· Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
· France IEA Oil Market Report
· Serbia Inflation Rate (July)
· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Jordon Inflation Rate (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (July)/ SACCI Business Confidence (June)
· Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)
Thursday, August 13, 2026
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· In Austin, Texas, the Democratic National Committee holds its summer meeting. The DNC is expected to vote on the party’s 2028 presidential nominating calendar and a decision on which state will hold the first Democratic primary contest in that election cycle are expected.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at a Greenville Chamber of Commerce event in Greenville, South Carolina.
· Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack participates in a moderated question-and-answer session as part of the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce’s Government Affairs Breakfast Series in Kettering, Ohio.
· Brazil Retail Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)
· USA PPI (July)/ PPI (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/08)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/01)/ PPI (July)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/08)/ PPI (July)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (July)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (July)/ PPI (July)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/07)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/13)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/12)
· Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)
· Argentina Inflation Rate (July)
· Peru Interest Rate Decision
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ PPI (July)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Machine Tool Orders (July)
· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent participates in a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker interview in Sydney.
· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (May)
· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3
· Malaysia Construction Output Q2
· EARNINGS: Hong Kong MTR, CK Hutchison
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In the UK, the Clacton parliamentary by-election in England, triggered by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s decision to quit as an MP and recontest the seat.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· UK RICS House Price Balance (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ GDP 3-Month Avg (June)/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production /(June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ Construction Orders Q2/ Construction Output (June)/ GDP (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)
· Romania Industrial Production (June)
· Hungary Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)
· Slovakia Inflation Rate (July)
· Spain Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)
· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)/Current Account (June)
· Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/07)
· Euro Area Industrial Production (June)
· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
· Serbia Interest Rate Decision
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)
· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Zambia holds presidential elections. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema is expected to win a second term.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)
· South Africa Gold Production (June)/Mining Production (June)
Friday, August 14, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Canada Capacity Utilization (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (June)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)/ Wholesale Sales (June)
· USA Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales Control Group (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/ Autos (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August)/ Business Inventories (June)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (August)/ Michigan Current Conditions (August)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (August)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (June)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/14)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/14)
· Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)
· Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)
· El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)
· EARNINGS: Pershing Square
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is set to deliver the annual State of the Nation Address ahead of the country's Independence Day on Aug. 17th. Prabowo will also present the government's macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal policy framework for the proposed 2027 state budget. The address is expected to outline policy priorities in his administration's third year and set out major targets, including projected economic growth and government spending.
· Australia’s Parliamentary Joint Committee on Corporations and Financial Services holds a hearing on ethics and professional accountability at KPMG Australia.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives evidence to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics.
· South Korea Import/Export Prices (July)
· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ Visitor Arrivals (June)
· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/08)
· Australia Home Loans Q2/Investment Lending for Homes Q2
· China New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)/Current Account Q2
· Philippines Cash Remittances (June)
· Tawain GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/Current Account Q2/ GDP (July)
· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/07)
· EARNINGS: JD.com, Hua Hong, China Mobil, Insurance Australia Group, Pan American Silver, Tata Motors, SMIC
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2
· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)/ Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2
· Romania Current Account (June)
· Serbia Building Permits (June)
· Poland Inflation Rate (July)
· Russia Current Account Q2
· EARNINGS: Adyen, Antofagasta, Maersk, Orsted, PKO Bank Polski, Savills, Standard Bank Thyssenkrupp, Transurban
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Jordon Industrial Production (June)
· Israel Inflation Rate (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2
Saturday, August 15, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In New Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivers a speech to mark the anniversary of the country’s independence from British rule in 1947.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Indonesia Car Sales (July)
· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Liechtenstein celebrates National Day.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, August 16, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Brazil’s 2026 election campaign season formally begins (the elections are in October).
· Today is Restoration Day in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· In Durban, South Africa, the 46th Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead
August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
August 29 – 30: The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting, Ashville, North Carolina.
August 31 – September 1: the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Ashville, North Carolina.
September 1 – 2: There will be a G20 Innovation Ministerial held in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.
September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.
September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.
September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.
September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.
· September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.
· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.
October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.
October 4: Brazil holds general elections.
October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.
October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.
November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.
December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.
December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.
The Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
August 10 - 14, 2026
The Senate Left for August, Hopes of Getting a Deal on the CLARITY Act Got Pushed Until September, And Otherwise, Washington is Collectively on Vacation
Nothing is going on this week. The Senate packed up and left for the rest of August (after shelving efforts to hammer out a deal on the ethics portion of the CLARITY Act until September, when they return). The House of Representatives has been gone for ten days already and will not be back until September, too. There are no major regulatory speeches, conferences, or other events of note this coming week.
We hope you are enjoying the quiet and are on vacation someplace fun. We have three recommended reads for you at the end – not exactly beach reading but pretty good, nonetheless.
Let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· The House is in August recess until September 7th.
House of Representatives
· The House is in August recess until September 7th.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
The White House
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
Speeches –
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Conferences –
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
Thursday, August 6, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· Nothing significant to report.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· Nothing significant to report.
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
· Nothing significant to report.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· Nothing significant to report.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· Tuesday & Wednesday, August 11 – 12 – SIFMA holds a virtual briefing for members on digital assets and asset management.
· Wednesday, September 9, 12:00 – 6:30 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance in conjunction with the Canadian Bankers Association holds the annual IIF-Canada Forum in Toronto.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Recommended Reads
The new era of finance needs innovation more than consensus CFTC Chair Michael Selig/The Economist
By invitation of The Economist, CFTC Chair Selig wrote an opinion piece on the future of derivative regulation. Selig writes: “For many years, international financial regulation has operated under an assumption that regulatory priorities would emerge through broad consensus among global institutions and regulators from different countries. Although international co-operation remains important, America is not in the business of importing regulatory trends designed by agencies that are considering yesterday’s markets built around limited trading hours, single exchanges and screen-based trading.”
Early Warning Signals in Private Credit? What BDC Portfolios Reveal about Emerging Risks Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Private credit—lending by nonbank financial institutions—has grown to over $1 trillion in the United States, yet most of it remains opaque to investors and policymakers because private credit funds are not required to publish their holdings. Business development companies (BDCs) are an exception and provide a window into this segment of the credit markets. All BDCs are publicly registered investment vehicles that must file periodic reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including quarterly and annual filings. We analyze these disclosures to detect trends in the pricing of BDC loans, borrowers’ creditworthiness, and the industry composition of BDC loan portfolios. The key Takeaways are:
The share of BDC loans with payment-in-kind usage—borrowers deferring cash interest payments—rose from 6 percent to 10 percent from 2022 to 2026; the sharpest increases were in construction, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade.
BDC portfolios tend to be concentrated in certain industries: Loans to internet and software companies account for just over 20% of the median portfolio, with wide variation across lenders.
BDC lending spreads average 4 to 5 percentage points over the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) but have decreased by close to 1 percentage point over the past two years, even as borrowers’ creditworthiness appears to have deteriorated.
While BDCs use internal models to assign value to their portfolio companies, disclosed valuation metrics predict future BDC stock returns, suggesting that public markets incorporate information from those disclosures.
Financial and Production Integration in the Macroeconomy Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Abstract: This paper studies how integration between the financial sector and production networks shapes business cycle transmission. We develop a dynamic model in which banks provide asset-based financing to firms embedded in supply chains. The model highlights two margins of bank–supply chain integration with opposite macroeconomic implications. Extensive-margin integration—captured by firms’ access to banks specializing in different supply chain segments—amplifies negative banking shocks. By contrast, intensive-margin integration—captured by the diffusion of factoring and invoice discounting—attenuates banking disruptions. The model reveals that the stabilizing effects of integration dominate when firm production linkages are tight. The predictions are consistent with matched bank–firm data from Italy.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
Recommended Weekend Reads
China’s Quiet Quest to Expand Its Economic Reach in Latin America, An Update on USMCA Negotiations, The Pope’s AI Politics, and How Consumers View Government Debt
August 7 -9, 2026
Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.
Latin America, China, and the Future of USMCA/CUSMA
China’s Quiet Quest to Dominate Latin America Natalia Cote-Muñoz/Foreign Affairs
For years, U.S. officials have fretted about Chinese megaprojects in Latin America. Successive administrations have, for example, sounded the alarm about Peru’s Chancay Port, which is controlled and operated by a Chinese shipping giant, and about the Chinese-built Coca Codo Sinclair Dam, in Ecuador. In response, Washington has issued diplomatic condemnations against Latin American officials, revoked visas, and even threatened to use force against the region’s governments. It is easy to see why the United States is so worried about major infrastructure being built and operated by China. In the eyes of many U.S. officials, these projects are a way for Beijing to accumulate leverage over Latin American governments… But Washington is stressing about yesterday’s challenge. Beijing is no longer betting on multibillion-dollar megaprojects to improve its position in the Western Hemisphere. Instead, it is embedding itself in the region by fostering smaller, quieter endeavors, often at the municipal or provincial level.
The Sheinbaum Administration’s Cautious Engagement with China. Expediente Arierto
Claudia Sheinbaum’s government in Mexico has sought to navigate a delicate balance between cooperation with the United States, Mexico’s biggest export market, source of remittances and security partner, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), an important potential source of investment and trade with Mexico, particularly as the trade and political relationship with the U.S. has become increasingly unpredictable and occasionally tense. In the context of preliminary negotiations with the Trump Administration over the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA), in December 2025, Mexico imposed significant new tariffs on a range of products from countries with which Mexico does not have a current Free Trade Agreement. These included a tariff of up to 50% on autos from the PRC. As an offset, however, Sheinbaum’s government also held high-level talks with her Chinese counterparts to explain Mexico’s action and announced that she will be attending the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ summit in Beijing in November 2026, setting the stage for a bilateral summit between Sheinbaum and Xi from which deepened economic, political, and other cooperation could flow.
USMCA and the Politics of Permanent Leverage Americas Quarterly
Without much fanfare, U.S. and USMCA trade negotiators concluded a third round of bilateral USMCA talks in this city days ago. While progress was made on some issues, contentious topics such as auto industry rules of origin and nondiscriminatory access to Mexico’s electricity market are still sticking points that will be discussed in a new round scheduled for September in Washington. So, what is the ultimate goal of the new Washington? The objective is not simply to secure concessions. It is to preserve the leverage that makes future concessions easier to extract. And that distinction matters a lot.
New USMCA demands on USco: A breakdown Mexico Political Economist Substack
The third round’s the charm. This time, US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiations between Mexico and the US happened in Mexico City. US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer and his team met with President Claudia Sheinbaum to discuss what a revamped regional trade acceptable to the Trump administration might look like. Here are the latest parameters of what the US is asking of Mexico.
The Ethics and Energy of AI and Data Centers
The Pope’s AI Politics Civitas Outlook/Civitas Institute at the University of Texas
Saint Augustine’s political analysis of the city of man and the city of God structures Pope Leo’s XIV’s first encyclical letter, Magnificia Humanitas. Surveying the times, On Safeguarding the Human Person in the Time of Artificial Intelligence sees personal liberty used by currents in geopolitics. Released in May, the encyclical received rave reviews on social media. This is curious given the document’s bleakness. It would be comforting to both enjoy the technology and side with the pope on the politics. However, Leo argues that the technology is as problematic as the politics. He cautions parents and educators “to protect our young people from the promise of the perfect machine.” Without legal and moral oversight, Leo is sure machine learning is not a continuation of Western humanism.
Data Center Electricity Use: Two Years After “Make or Buy?” Lynn Kiesling/Knowledge Problem Substack
Two years ago today, the author published “Data Center Electricity Use III: Make or Buy?,” applying transaction cost economics to a question then just emerging: how would data-center developers respond if electricity became more expensive, less reliable, or too slow to obtain through ordinary utility processes? AI and cloud computing were driving electricity-demand forecasts upward. Grid operators and utilities were warning of generation shortages, transmission constraints, and long interconnection queues. Data centers could keep buying electricity conventionally, or pursue alternatives: long-term contracts with individual generators, co-location with nuclear plants, or on-site generation of their own. The question was where firms would draw the boundary between purchasing electricity through markets and tariffs and exerting direct control over its production. The author’s conclusion was deliberately Coasean: “the answer to the make or buy question is ‘it depends.’” The choice would turn on price, but also on uncertainty, contracting costs, asset specificity, the value of reliability, and the managerial difficulty of producing power internally. But a great deal has happened since then. Microsoft has backed the restart of a retired nuclear plant. Meta has signed a twenty-year agreement to keep another running. Google and Amazon have become sponsors of advanced nuclear technology. Developers have proposed gigawatts of dedicated natural gas generation. Federal regulators have spent two years working out how data centers may connect directly to power plants without shifting costs unfairly onto other customers. The author argues the evidence supports her original hypothesis and refines it. Data centers are not simply choosing between buying from a utility and owning power plants. They are building a spectrum of organizational forms on a continuum between those poles. The decision may be better described as make, buy, or ally. The cost of electricity now includes the opportunity cost of waiting
Who Is Winning the AI Race? Dr. Alina Polyakova/Center for European Policy Analysis
From cyber “breakouts” to new Chinese AI models catching up and a fresh European AI regulation coming into force, the global AI race is accelerating. But who is winning? The author studies the state of AI advancement in the US, China, and Europe. Her analysis finds the US is still in the lead. On the heels of Anthropic’s and OpenAI’s disclosures that their models escaped their sandboxes to hack into companies, the White House once again gathered the leaders of America’s top AI labs to review a new framework for vetting frontier models before release. It is voluntary, for now. But with US public opinion on AI souring, the Administration and Congress are asking how much control can and should the government exert over these increasingly powerful capabilities.
The AGI Rideout Strategy for Reducing Strategic Risk and Promoting Stability in the Transition to Artificial General Intelligence The Rand Corporation
An all-out race toward artificial general intelligence (AGI), driven by expectations that the first state to achieve AGI will enjoy an overwhelming and enduring first-mover advantage over its geopolitical rivals, poses serious national security risks for the United States. Drawing inspiration from strategic developments that stabilized the superpower nuclear rivalry during the Cold War, the authors describe an AGI Rideout strategy that seeks to deter artificial intelligence (AI)–fueled conflict and avoid disrupting U.S. technological progress by increasing the resilience of the AI ecosystem and developing capabilities to counter rapidly evolving adversary AI-enabled military capabilities that could lead to aggression and escalation. AGI Rideout is not a strategy for winning the race to advanced AI or restricting the pace of progress toward it. Instead, the authors argue that the United States should prioritize measures to avoid strategic disaster on the path toward AGI, regardless of the course it takes, and maximize decisionmakers' long-term options in a world with advanced AI.
Geoeconomics
How do Consumers View Future Government Debt A Primer on Debt-Growth Expectations Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Abstract: We analyze consumers’ expectations for growth in government debt before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, its breakdown by different income groups, and its relation to inflation expectations. We find that debt-growth expectations rose immediately during the pandemic recession and started to return to their pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2024. We also observe that consumers in the bottom 40 percent of the household-income distribution have higher debt-growth expectations than their counterparts in the middle 40 percent and top 20 percent of this distribution. A regression analysis indicates that government debt-growth expectations are positively correlated with inflation expectations in the post-pandemic recession period.
Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The House of Representatives Is Out On Vacation For August and the Senate Is About to Join Them, The Crypto Bill Is Stuck, and Will the Last Regulator Around Please Turn Out the Lights for the Rest of the Month?
August 3 - 7, 2026
Washington got pretty quiet this past week when the House of Representatives adjourned for the August recess. And it is going to get even quieter at the end of this week when the Senate leaves for its break.
There is some hope there will be a breakthrough on the CLARITY Act this week, but we are skeptical. Senate Democrats are not budging from their position demanding tougher ethics provisions (aimed at President Trump and his family's crypto business). Plus, there are several Republicans – including Senator Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) – who are "highly resistant" to moving the bill in its current form.
Plus, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) already has a busy week of bills to deal with, none more important than securing a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government open until December. Thus, it's pretty clear to us the CLARITY Act is about to slide into an already crowded September line-up of "must-do " bills.
There is one congressional hearing of note happening this week – the Senate Banking Committee is holding a hearing looking at ways of helping unlock more capital for "Main Street." SIFMA CEO Ken Bentsen, Sullivan & Cromwell Partner Dalia Bass, and Mike Bass from the US Chamber of Commerce's Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness will testify.
Beyond that, there is not much going on at the regulatory agencies this week. There are no events of note being hosted by trade associations or think tanks, either. What few things we could find happening in the financial regulatory space are below. Let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· Wednesday, August 5, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Exploring Process Approaches for Addressing Social Security Solvency.”
· Thursday, August 6, 10:15 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Empowering Main Street by Unlocking Access to Capital.”
House of Representatives
· The House is in August recess until September 7th.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
The White House
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
Speeches –
· Wednesday, August 5, 4:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation 2026 Economic Luncheon in Anchorage, Alaska.
· Thursday, August 6, 5:30 p.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Musalem speaks at the Center for Public Policy Debate.
· Friday, August 7, 10:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually at a National Association for Business Economics Fireside Chat.
Conferences –
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· Thursday, August 6, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
· Thursday, August 6, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC has announced that the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting held on July 21, 2026, will reconvene virtually today.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· Nothing significant to report.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· Nothing significant to report.
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
· Nothing significant to report.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· Nothing significant to report.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
The Global Week Ahead
August 2 - 9, 2026
Trump Calls Off New Attacks on Iran (for now), Venezuela's Government Launches Talks with Opposition Leaders, Colombia Gets a New President, and It Will Be Another Big Earnings Week
In the Northern Hemisphere, the Dog Days of Summer are quickly taking hold as most major political leaders and parliaments (as well as business executives) flee for holiday break. But there is still a good amount of geopolitical activity this week markets should pay close attention to – with Iran again dominating the spotlight.
Following weeks of back-and-forth attacks by the US and Iran, President Trump ordered a new set of heavy strikes on Iran Friday. However, late Saturday, he canceled those planned attacks, saying Saudi Arabia and Iran have asked him to hold up, and with Iran apparently indicating the "perimeter of a deal" with the US (but Iran has not publicly confirmed this apparent request). This is all extremely fast-moving and likely to be a "two steps forward, one step back" series of events for weeks – if not months – ahead.
Meanwhile, this weekend Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez sat down with opposition leaders Jorge Rodriguez, who represents the opposition in the National Assembly, and Dinorah Figuera, who represents a bloc of opposition groups (not present was opposition. The talks aim to see if the country can begin to map out a path to national elections. But complicating the talks is a split within the opposition as to when and how those elections should take place. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated the US is very involved in brokering the talks. No timeline has been set for completion of the talks.
Also this coming week, Peru will inaugurate a new president, conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella. But it is going to be something of a messy event as outgoing President Gustavo Petro not only refuses to attend (citing unproven allegations the election was stolen) but he also blocked Espriella's effort – which broke with tradition of being sworn into office in the capital, Bogotá – to have it take place at a military base in Cauca (Espriella wanted it there to emphasize his political message of decentralizing the government as well as his focus on security and anti-narcoterrorism).
Instead, the swearing-in will take place in Cali. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Argentine President Javier Milei, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa (all ideologically/politically aligned with Espriella) will be in attendance. There are expected to be large demonstrations in Cali against Espriella, with a resulting 11,000-plus police officers being deployed for the event.
We also want to note that while August is typically quiet in Washington, two major trade issues are coming up in the coming weeks. First, US-Canadian trade relations are set to take another hit on August 19th with the implementation of US Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods, overriding USMCA protections). All this looms as Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc was in Washington this past week for his first in-person meetings with US Trade Representative Jamison Greer to negotiate the next iteration of the USMCA/CUSA.
However, President Trump told Fox News on July 28th that he has "no interest" in preserving USMCA/CUSA. But Trump is facing growing pressure from Republican members of Congress in battleground states – especially farm states and Canadian border states – to renew the trade deal or risk them losing their seats in November. We expect a fair number of discussions between Ontario and Washington over the coming month, which may turn the curve more positively toward a deal.
Secondly, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Greer held a call with Vice Premier He Lifeng this past Thursday. The call was the most senior contact between Beijing and Washington since May. Beijing is pushing back hard on new US forced-labor tariffs as both sides are jockeying ahead of a still-undated September Xi-Trump reciprocal visit to Washington. The US-China tariff truce itself runs through November 10th.
Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is going to be a very heavy corporate earnings week around the world. OPEC+ meets on production output Sunday. And we would note there are virtually no major central bank speeches this coming week aside from Fed Governor Lisa Cook's speech in Alaska on Wednesday.
In the US, the major economic report of the week will be the July jobs report out on Friday. Also, out this week in the US are the July ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the JOLTS report on Tuesday, the ADP report and ISM services index on Wednesday, and Q2 productivity reports on Thursday.
In Asia this week, China's private July PMI report is out on Monday, as is the July manufacturing report. Markets will also get China's July trade data on Friday. The Bank of Japan releases minutes from its June meeting on Wednesday, and markets will also get June labor cash earnings on Wednesday and household spending on Friday.
Finishing up in Europe, Germany releases retail sales and PMIs (Monday), factory orders and PMIs (Wednesday), industrial production Thursday, and trade data (Friday). Aside from that, it is a quiet week in Europe.
Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:
Sunday, August 2, 2026
Global
· The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting takes place to evaluate and decide output targets.
Americas
· Political/Social Events –
· Talks between Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodríguez's interim government and the 2015 National Assembly (led by Dinorah Figuera) begin this weekend, aimed at rebuilding democratic institutions and eventually setting a path to elections.
· Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Australia’s royal Air Force will host Exercise Pitch Black, military air combat drills involving 20 countries, through Aug. 7th.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Artificial Intelligence Act full provisions come into force.
· North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
· Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, August 3, 2026
Global
· Danish Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, Permanent Representative of Denmark to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month of August, will give a briefing on the Dane’s policy priorities.
Americas
· Political/Social Events –
· The US House of Representatives are out of session until September 1st. The US Senate goes out for their August recess this coming Friday.
· The USS George Washington carrier group will conclude its port of call to Da Nang, Vietnam. This was a rare visit for a US Naval ship (only the fourth time since the US and Vietnam reestablished relations in 1995). It was meant to signal reassurances to Vietnam of the importance of the relationship of the two nations and to signal to China the US’ intention to remain a major military factor in the region.
· In California, a court hearing is scheduled to take place as part of a lawsuit brought by 12 states (led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta), attempting to prevent the merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros Discovery. The states argue that the move would “extinguish competition” and lead to fewer choices and higher prices for consumers due to the new company’s significant market power. Paramount has said the states’ case is “without merit”
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Canadian financial markets are closed for the Civic Holiday.
· Mexico Business Confidence (July)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)
· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ISM Manufacturing Employment (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (July)/Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates
· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)
· Argentina Tax Revenue (July)
· EARNINGS: Palantir, Marriott, Clorox, Snap, Tyson Foods
Asia
· Political/Social Events –
· Vietnam’s 16th National Assembly will convene in its first extraordinary session through August 24th in Hanoi. Lawmakers will deliberate on 33 total agenda items, aiming to pass 15 draft laws and 4 resolutions while reviewing major national infrastructure and policy initiatives. These include deciding on investment policies for the Ring Road 5 project in the Hanoi capital region and adjustments for the Lao Cai–Hanoi–Hai Phong railway project. Additionally, they will consider resolutions for renewable energy project bottlenecks, matters concerning the Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Plant project, and the integration of four national target programs into a single framework.
· Thai Prime Minister Anutin is scheduled to have a two-day visit to Indonesia. He and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto are expected to tighten cooperation on several areas such as security, transnational crime, trade and investment, food and energy security, and people-to-people relations.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Building Permits (June)
· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (July)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/Tourist Arrivals (June)
· Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/Balance of Trade (July)/Foreign Direct Investment (July)/Industrial Production July)/Inflation Rate (July)/Retail Sales (July)/Tourist Arrivals (July)
· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (July)
· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)
· EARNINGS: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Daiwa Securities, Itochu, Nissan, WuXi AppTec
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Joint Summer Congress of CIOR, CIOMR, and CISOR takes place in Bucharest, Romania through August 7th. (CIOR: Interallied Confederation of Reserve Officers, CIOMR: Interallied Confederation of Reserve Medical Officers, CISOR: Interallied Confederation of Reserve Non-Commissioned Officers).
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Germany Retail Sales (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Spain Tourist Arrivals (June)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)/PPI (July)
· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)
· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)
Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· In Canada, the Foreign Influence Transparency and Accountability Act (FITAA) enters into force. The new law creates a new publicly accessible registry to bring transparency to foreign influence activities directed at Canadian political and governmental processes, and potentially impacting companies operating in Canada that have a connection to a foreign state. The Act applies broadly to individuals and entities that have arrangements with a foreign principal to influence a political or government process in Canada.
· Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington State, and Virginia hod congressional primary elections. The Democratic Senate primary race is shaping up to likely be a major indicator as to whether Democrats might take control of the US Senate in November – and in many respects, what the future of the Democratic Party looks like. Democratic Socialists Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is pitted against Representative Haley Stevens in a tough battle for the Democratic nomination. El-Sayed is up in several polls over Stevens. But most observers believe if El-Sayed wins, he cannot beat the Republican nominee, former Representative Mike Rogers. Additionally, El-Sayed and Stevenson are at strong odds over US policy toward Israel should be, with El-Sayed questioning Israel’s right to exist and accusing Stevens of being in Israel’s back pocket.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)
· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August)/01/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ Factory Orders (June)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (June)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (August)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/31)/Total Vehicle Sales (July)
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)
· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Colombia Exports (June)
· EARNINGS: SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, Merck & Co., Amgen, McDonald’s, Gilead Sciences, Phizer, Spotify, Cummins, Marathon Petroleum, Apollo, Archer Daniel Midland, Booking Holdings, Caterpillar, Diamondback Energy, Duke Energy, Emerson Electric, Gilead Sciences, Kimberly-Clark, Marathon Petroleum, SpaceX, Spotify, Suncor, Sysco
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Korea Inflation Rate (July)
· Japan Monetary Base
· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)/ Household Spending (June)/ Commodity Prices (July)
· Thailand Business Confidence (July)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/Wholesale Prices (July)
· Hong Kong Retail Sales (June)
· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (July)
· EARNINGS: Toyota, Mitsubishi Heavy Industry, Mitsui & Co., Grab
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· In London, members of the App Drivers and Couriers Union to protest outside the London offices of self-driving vehicle business Waymo, opposing the rollout of the company’s driverless cars across the British capital.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Spain New Car Sales (July)/Unemployment Change (July)
· Italy New Car Registrations (July)/Retail Sales (June)
· Romania PPI (June)
· France Budget Balance (June)
· Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)
· UK New Conventional Gilt 2032
· EARNINGS: HSBC, BP, Bayer, Domino’s Pizza (UK), Hugo Boss, Lufthansa, Saudi Aramco, Smith & Nephew, Travis Perkins
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· The US and Lebanon are scheduled to hold the next round of US-mediated talks in Rome, Italy over the future of Israeli forces in Lebanon and the Lebanese Army disarming Hezbollah.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Jordon PPI (June)
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)/S&P Global PMI (July)
· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (July)
Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Global
· The BRICS Education Track Meetings take place through August 7th in New Delhi. Education Ministers from BRICS member states will gather to discuss educational policy.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Bolivia celebrates Independence Day.
· Tennessee holds statewide primary elections.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation 2026 Economic Luncheon in Anchorage, Alaska.
· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/31)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/31)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/31)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/31)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/31)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services Business Activity (July)/ ISM Services Employment (July)/ ISM Services New Orders (July)/ ISM Services Prices (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/31)
· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (May))/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Columbia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· EARNINGS: Eli Lilly, SanDisk, Western Digital, Walt Disney, Shopify, Uber, CVS Health, McKesson, Infineon, Phillis 66, DoorDash, Honeywell Aerospace, Occidental Petroleum, eBay, Kraft Heinz, Block, Brookfield Asset Management, Carlye Group, Honeywell Aerospace, Iron Mountain, Manulife Financial, Motorola, Next, the New York Times Company, News Corp, Prudential Financial,
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Taiwan will hold its annual Han Kuang military exercises through Aug. 14th. The drills will test relocating weapons production lines and converting civilian factories for military use in annual drills next month, aiming to sustain combat operations if Chinese attacks hit supply hubs.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· New Zealand Employment Change/ Unemployment Rate/ Labour Costs Index/ Labour Costs Index/ Participation Rate/Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/04)
· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (July)/ Ai Group Construction Index (July)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/S&P Global Services PMI (July)
· Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/BoJ JGB Purchase
· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)
· Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Philippines Inflation Rate (July)
· China RatingDog Services PMI (July)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (July)
· Thailand Inflation Rate (July)
· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate
· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ HSBC Composite PMI (July)/ HSBC Services PMI (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July/31)
· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· EARNINGS: Cathy Pacific, Honda, Suzuki Motor
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
· France New Car Registrations (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)
· Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion
· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)
· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)
· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)
· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)
· UK New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)
· Serbia PPI (July)
· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· EARNINGS: Novo Nordisk, Siemens Energy, Glencore, Fresenius, Sandoz, Deutsche Post, Ibstock, Legal & General, Royal London, Thompson Reuters
Middle East
· Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· UAE S&P Global PMI (July)
Africa
· Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)
Thursday, August 6, 2026
Global
· The 2nd BRICS Anti-Corruption Working Group meeting takes place in Hyderabad, India through August 5th.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Bolivia’s President Rodrigo Paz to deliver his first State of the Nation address.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Center for Public Policy Debate (CDPP) in Brazil.
· USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/01)/ Nonfarm Productivity/ Unit Labour Costs/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/01)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/31)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/06)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/06)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/05)
· Brazil Balance of Trade (July)
· Canada S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)
· Columbia PPI (July)
· Mexico Interest Rate Decision
· EARNINGS: ConocoPhillips, Constellation Energy, Cloudflare, Datadog, Airbnb, Warner Brothers Discover, Liberty Media, Lyft, MetLife, Petrobas, Ralph Lauren, Rocket Companies
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing is scheduled to visit Thailand. The Myanmar leader is set to meet Anutin to seek ways to tackle pollution in the Kok River, a tributary of the Mekong that runs 285 kilometers through Myanmar and northern cities in Thailand. The two leaders are also expected to discuss cross-border trade and regional security issues.
· Today is the anniversary of the first atomic bomb used in war on Hiroshima in 1945.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Korea Current Account (June)
· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/01)
· Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)/ Industrial Production (June)
· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Private House Approvals (June)
· Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)
· EARNINGS: SoftBank, Nintendo
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)
· Russia Vehicle Sales (July)
· Germany Factory Orders (June)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)
· Romania Retail Sales (June)
· Hungary Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
· France Private Non-Farm Payrolls/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)
· Slovakia Retail Sales (June)
· Spain Industrial Production (June)
· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)
· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (July)
· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (July)/ Industrial Production (June)
· UK S&P Global Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/31)
· EARNINGS: Siemens, DBS, Deutsche Telekom, Zurich Insurance, Generali, Merck KgaA, Rheinmetall, Swiss Re, Diageo, Commerzbank, Swisscom, Sempra, WPP
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Friday, August 7, 2026
Global
· New York Federal Reserve’s World Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (July)/ FAO Food Price Index (July)
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Abelardo de la Espriella will be sworn in as Colombia’s new president. However, since outgoing President Petro is refusing to allow the inauguration in the capital, Bogotá, because he is still refusing to acknowledge the election outcome, the swearing-in will take place in Cali. There will be a heavy international attendance including Spain's King Felipe VI, Argentine President Javier Milea, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, Paraguayan President Santiago Peña, Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Petro and allied political parties are saying they won't attend and instead are organizing demonstrations in Cali, which is a political stronghold of theirs.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Barkin speaks at National Association for Business Economics event.
· Chile Inflation Rate (July)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
· Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI
· Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Full Time Employment Chg (July)/ Part Time Employment Chg (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Wages (July)/ Ivey PMI s.a (July)
· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Earnings (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Weekly Hours (July)/ Government Payrolls (July)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (July)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (July)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (July)/ Used Car Prices (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/07)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)
· Brazil Car Production (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)
· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)
· Argentina Industrial Production (June)
· EARNINGS: AIG
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· New Zealand's regulated three-month election period will begin ahead of November polls.
· The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency is set to launch an H3 rocket.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Japan Household Spending (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)
· Philippines GDP Growth Rate
· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (July)
· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Property Price Index
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)
· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· India Bank Loan Growth (July/24)/ Deposit Growth (July/24)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/31)
· EARNINGS: Japan Post Bank, Kosan, UOB, OCBC
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)
· UK Lloyds House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)
· Hungary Inflation Rate (July)
· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Unemployment Rate
· Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)
· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Greece Balance of Trade (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (July)
· EARNINGS: Allianz, Munich Re, Banca Monte Dei Pashi di Siena
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
Saturday, August 8, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Hawaii holds statewide primary elections.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Thailand Consumer Confidence (July)
· Kazakhstan Current Account
· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
Sunday, August 9, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is National Day in Singapore, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead
August 7 – Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is sworn into office.
August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.
September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.
September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.
September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.
· September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.
October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.
October 4: Brazil holds general elections.
October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.
October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.
November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.
December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.
Recommended Weekend Read
What Impact Will Trump’s Latest Tariffs Have on 60 Targeted Countries? Cuba On the Brink, How DARPA Intends to Build Nuclear Reactors the Size of AA Batteries, and Inside Ukraine’s Kill Zone
July 31 - August 2, 2026
Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.
Assessing the Impact of the Latest US Tariffs
The State of U.S. Tariffs July 24, 2026 John Iselin/Yale University Budget Lab
As of July 24th, the average statutory tariff rate stands at 11.1% after falling by about 0.3pp when Section 122 tariffs expired and were replaced with new tariffs under Section 301. Under current law, which includes several scheduled tariff increases in the coming months, this figure is set to be 11.8% by the end of this year. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the ultimate consumer price impact of current-law tariff policy to be about 0.7%. They also estimate household costs due to tariffs total about $1,100 annually under current law. Over the next ten years, the Lab estimates that current-law tariffs will raise about $1.9 trillion. These numbers are somewhat lower, though, after considering the negative impact of tariffs on GDP.
Global Trade Alert’s panopticon on Section 301 forced labor final findings Hinrich Foundation
Global Trade Alert repackaged the USTR’s 24 July final finding on its Section 301 probe on forced labor practices in 60 economies into 60 economy-specific PDFs as a handy trade research tool. New US Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% took effect on 60 economies for alleged forced-labor practices, with limited exemptions. The Global Trade Alert breaks down how the tariffs were levied based on each economy’s forced-labor import ban regime. USTR’s 431-page notice covers three parts: findings, tariff-schedule Annex I, and 15 exemption lists (Annex II) covering specific products and economies.
The Big Exceptions to the American Manufacturing Jobs Decline Jiaxin (Jason) He Agglomerations
The Trump Administration’s hope that its tariff policy would increase manufacturing jobs has failed to materialize. Even after a modest uptick in the last three months, the manufacturing sector lost 53,000 jobs in the year through June. It has now shed 300,000 jobs since its post-pandemic peak of 12.9 million in the second quarter of 2023. The short version of what we found is that nearly every manufacturing subsector has lost jobs since the post-COVID peak roughly three years ago. But this study also discovered a few intriguing exceptions, and each of them tells a useful story about recent trends in the U.S. economy. Jobs in two other subsectors - electrical components and transportation equipment - not only have grown since the peak but also have continued their growth throughout 2025. As of the end of last year, electrical components manufacturing employed 9.1 percent more workers than in 2019, while transportation equipment employed 5.8 percent.
Cuba
Cuba: The Capital of 21st Century Communism US State Department
The US State Department, in a new report which ratchets up US-Cuba tensions to a new level, strongly accuses Cuba of waging “a sustained campaign of subversion against the United States. It is a campaign that has infiltrated the highest reaches of the U.S. government, recruited and cultivated generations of American activists, backed an unprecedented wave of left-wing terrorism on American soil, and carried out one of the most durable and damaging foreign intelligence penetrations in American history.” The report goes on to charge, “The Cuban campaign against America is unique. It is irregular and covert – even at the peak of its military power, Havana never possessed the capacity to defeat the United States in a conventional armed conflict. Instead, the Cubans perfected a new model for a long war of attrition, organized around espionage, infiltration, sabotage, proxy networks, and a revolutionary infrastructure designed to turn America against itself. In contrast to every other aspect of Cuba’s failed state, this model has yielded remarkable success.”
Does Cuba Really Have Iranian Drones? Foreign Policy
U.S. President Donald Trump recently said the United States is “looking into” whether Cuba is stockpiling Iranian drones and suggested that Washington could act if that’s the case. National security and Latin America experts told FP that it’s probable that Cuba has such drones, but they also emphasized that it’s extraordinarily unlikely that Havana is planning on taking offensive actions against the United States. The experts also believe that the recent alarm raised over drones in Cuba is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to establish a pretext for U.S. military action against the island as it works toward the goal of collapsing the government in Havana.
The collapse of Cuba’s state-run economy is years in the making The Atlantic Council
In April, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projected that the island’s economy would shrink by 6.5 percent in 2026. This projection is significantly worse than the October 2025 projection of practically zero growth. The pressure is mounting, but the economy’s collapse precedes the recent pressure campaign. Another projection, from the Economist Intelligence Unit, further downgraded the outlook to a 7.2 percent drop in total output for this year. To look at only this data gives an incomplete picture. To begin with, even though ECLAC conducts its own independent assessment, its projections are based on official statistics from the Cuban government, presenting a credibility issue. But even more important, the two-year window is too narrow a snapshot of the Cuban economy’s problems.
Can Cuba Outlast Marco Rubio? Lee Schlenker/Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
Shortly after four members of Congress returned from a fact-finding visit to Havana early last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a tranche of new sanctions against Cuba’s tourism, energy, trade and security sectors, the latest move in a months-long maximum pressure campaign intended to overthrow the island’s government by year’s end. Nonetheless, all signs indicate that progress in bilateral talks made back in March — when the U.S. “allowed” a Russian fuel tanker to dock in Havana, providing momentary relief for Cuba’s economy — has largely stalled, and other unconventional backchannels have petered out.
Big Strides in Energy Innovation and Drone Warfare
How DARPA plans to get nuclear power in the size of a ‘AA battery’ Breaking Defense
The biggest roadblocks to having transportable nuclear power, according to DARPA program manager Tabitha Dodson, come down to heat and weight. “There’s an enormous amount of energy inside a nuclear reaction, whether it’s fission or radioisotope,” Dodson told Breaking Defense. “[But] there is a lot of heavy and non-transportable hardware that deals with heat management for both fission and RTG [radioisotope thermal generators] systems. That heat management piece is always what drags down all of the dreams of transportable nuclear power.” As a way to bypass that roadblock, DARPA funded seven competing teams as part of its Rads to Watts program to refine a range of approaches to radiovoltaics. The objective of the multi-million-dollar program (full figures weren’t disclosed) is a new kind of miniature power cell that can run anything from satellites in space to tactical radios to pacemakers, tough enough to work for years or decades without recharging and in extreme environments that freeze or try traditional power systems.
Inside Ukraine’s Kill Zone Reuters Graphics
This fascinating, in-depth video/motion report by Reuters is the most detailed reconstruction yet of the new breed of battlefront. It will take you into the kill zone via a “fly-over” that starts 15 km inside Russian-held territory before heading to the contact line between the two sides and then 15 km further into Ukrainian-held land. The war, well into its fifth year, has become the first major conflict to be dominated by unmanned aerial vehicles, with thousands of the cheap but deadly machines filling the skies. Ukraine and invader Russia are constantly advancing the new technology, which is transforming modern warfare. Both sides have had to abandon age-old tactics of gathering troops, vehicles and artillery in a relatively compressed area along the front lines. Such visible targets are easy prey for drones.
Killer Drones: Ready or Not, Here They Come American Enterprise Institute
Lethal autonomy is arriving, regardless of preference or treaty. Shrinking populations and accelerating technology are pushing every military toward increasingly autonomous machines in the kill chain; the live question is whether the US or its adversaries set the bounds. Proliferated precision sensing and strike capabilities create two coupled operational problems: Concentrated forces are now fatally targetable, and the dispersal that addresses this problem depends on dataflows that are themselves an attack surface. Both problems demand uncrewed mass and bounded autonomy to attain scales of force that crewed forces alone cannot reach. The principal barrier is institutional, not technological. The color-of-money structure, Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution cadence, milestone-style test and evaluation approach, and platform-centric sustainment cannot develop capabilities that must iterate continuously—and service cultures resist capabilities that threaten dominant communities.
The Global Week Ahead
Markets Struggle to Understand Where the US-Iran War is Heading, Funeral for Senator Graham Brings World Leaders to Washington, Fujimori Becomes Peru’s President, and a Big Week for Central Banks and Earnings
July 26 - August 2, 2026
Markets are going into this week struggling to understand the trajectory and future implications of the US-Iran War. Several new and significant turns have taken place in the last few days that are changing the complexion of the war. The first being Houthi forces in Yemen, at the behest of Iran, attacked two Saudi oil tankers on July 23rd in the Red Sea with a combination of missiles and drones following a declaration they were imposing a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia overall - which followed a Saudi air attack on Sanaa, Yemen, which appeared to be targeting Iranian military advisors and senior Houthi military leaders. Overall, more than a dozen ships have been attacked in and around the Red Sea/Hormuz corridor since July 6th. And in the last 24 hours, Houthis have fired missiles at a Saudi Aramco oil refinery inside Saudi Arabia.
The second event happened Saturday (July 25th) and, for the first time, merged the US-Iran War with the Ukraine War when Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against an Iranian cargo ship and an Iranian naval vessel in the Caspian Sea. Ukrainian officials said the cargo ship was carrying drone and missile components bound for Iran and that Kyiv considers such cargo "legitimate military targets." Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires, calling it a "hostile and criminal act" and that it was done "at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war." Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has been on calls with Russia's Lavrov and the EU's Kallas about a response, saying it "cannot go unanswered." This coincided with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remarking that Kyiv had noted Russia was passing on its satellite observations in the Middle East to Iran to enable it to direct strikes in the region.
If there is any good news coming out of the US-Iran War, it is that there were no attacks launched by either the US or Iran the last two nights. It appears this is the result of a new round of negotiations between Iran and Oman from which there are reports of “progress.”
We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates during the course of the week. We had several meetings and discussions with regional and local bank presidents in the Midwest this past week. We came away seeing a significantly heightened sense of anxiety and concern over economic conditions. The fears are three-fold: 1) the unpredictability of when hostilities might end with Iran which is causing oil prices – especially diesel prices – and spike, 2) Rising risk the Federal Reserve may feel compelled to raise interest rates this week, and 3) President Trump imposing yet another round of tariffs – ranging from 10% to 12.5% - on 60 major trading partners while threatening new 50% tariffs on Canada in retaliation for wildfires burning in Canada.
Washington will see a remarkable and sad event this week: The funeral of Senator Lyndsey Graham (R-SC). President Trump is scheduled to give the eulogy, and several world leaders are traveling to Washington to attend the service. Among them are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Both leaders will meet with Trump separately at the White House.
Zelenskyy is hoping to find a way to revive peace talks with Russia, but for now, Russia does not seem interested in pursuing a new peace track. Ukrainian long-range drone strikes and missile strikes have been causing considerable damage to Russian military and energy facilities as well as logistical targets (including nine Wildberries facilities – Wildberries is Russia's largest e-commerce platform and considered the Amazon of Russia).
Peru will inaugurate Keiko Fujimori as the country's new president – the country's10th president since 2016 – after winning the race by less than 50,000 votes. It was Fujimori's fourth presidential bid. Her win, alongside Abelardo de la Espriella's in Colombia and José Antonio Kast's in Chile, is being read as part of a broader regional shift toward the conservative wing in Latin America — a reversal from the Chávez/Lula-era left tilt.
Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, this will be a particularly busy week. Three major central bank meetings are taking place alongside a heavy data release schedule and a cascade of corporate earnings reports.
Breaking it down, in the US, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets this week. While the Fed is likely to keep rates on hold, there has been a clear rise in market chatter suggesting a possible hike, creating a somewhat jittery market (as alluded to above in our meetings with bank presidents). We are firmly with the consensus that they will hold. Also, this week the PCE Index – which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – is out Friday. It comes after the Conference Board's consumer confidence index on Tuesday, Q2 US GDP release on Thursday, and the PCE on Friday.
In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday on interest rates. We are in consensus that they are likely to hold rates. Also out on Friday will be the July Tokyo CPI, June retail sales, labor market data, housing start data, and industrial production figures. China releases June industrial profits on Monday and July PMIs on Friday.
Europe also has a busy week. The Bank of England meets on Thursday to decide on interest rates – also likely to hold. The German Ifo Survey is out on Monday, and July CPIs for Germany and Spain are out on Thursday and for Italy and France on Friday.
Finally, the corporate earnings schedule is massive this week, led by several major global tech and financial firms.
Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:
Sunday, July 26, 2026
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report
Asia
Political/Social Events –
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will visit the United States, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Germany through Aug. 3rd.
Today the Maldives celebrate Independence Day.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Israel Manufacturing Production (May)
Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Liberia celebrates Independence Day.
The 18th U.S.-Africa Business Summit begins in Mauritius and runs through July 29th. The theme of the summit is “Advancing New Frontiers in U.S.-Africa Prosperity,” and there is expected to be more than 2,500 participants, including numerous African heads of state, senior US government officials, and CEOs.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Monday, July 27, 2026
Global
The UN Security Council will meet on the situation in Ukraine.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
President Trump travels to Michigan to deliver remarks on the economy.
The US Senate is likely to hold a procedural vote on Director of National Intelligence nominee Jay Clayton.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is expected to brief senior Trump Administration officials and members of Congress on the latest AI models.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
Mexico Balance of Trade (June)
USA Durable Goods Orders (June)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp (June)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (June)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (June)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)
Canada BoC Market Participants Survey
EARNINGS: Baker Hughs, Whirlpool, Rambus, Nucor
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his annual State of the Nation address to Congress. Over the past year, public discourse across the country has been consumed by the high-stakes impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, infrastructure corruption scandals, and persistent economic strain.
Legislative assembly elections begin in Pakistan-controlled Azad Jammu and Kashmir.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
The economic surveillance unit AMRO (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office) will present its assessment of the region and provide updated growth and inflation forecasts for economies in Southeast Asia as well as China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. It will examine key risks and challenges affecting the regional outlook as the U.S.-Iran war drags on.
China’s fashion retailer Shein files for its IPO.
Singapore Monetary Policy Statement
China Industrial Profits (June)
Japan Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)
Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)
Pakistan Interest Rate Decision
Europe
Political/Social Events –
EU finance ministers meet in Brussels for an ECOFIN budget session.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with State Duma (parliament) members to discuss current legislative work
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Ireland Consumer Confidence (July)
Euro Area Loans to Companies (June)/ Loans to Households (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)
Germany Ifo Business Climate (July)/ Ifo Current Conditions (July)/ Ifo Expectations (July)
Slovenia Business Confidence (July)
Greece Total Credit (June)
UK CBI Distributive Trades (July)
EARNINGS: LVMH, AstraZeneca, Audi
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to an open debate on the Middle East with particular focus on Palestinian affairs. Deputy Special Coordinator Ramiz Alakbarov is expected to brief the council, with High Representative of the Board of Peace to Gaza Nickolay Mladenov.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
President Donald Trump is set to give a tribute at the funeral service of US Senator Lindsey Graham in Washington at the National Cathedral.
President Trump is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington. Netanyahu is in Washington for the memorial service of the late Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Interestingly, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid will also attend the memorial and meet with US members of Congress while in Washington (The Israeli elections are set for October 27th, the first elections since October 7, 2023).
Trump will then meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House (Zelenskyy is also in Washington for the Graham memorial service).
Peru’s President-elect Keiko Fujimori is sworn into office after winning June's runoff by fewer than 50,000 votes. This was Fujimori’s fourth presidential bid. Her inauguration will have a number of right-leaning regional guests including Argentina's President Javier Milei, Chile's President José Antonio Kast, and Panama's President José Raúl Mulino, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. And Spanish King Felipe VI is likely to attend, as well. Argentinian President Javier Milei will continue to Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia for meetings.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will visit Argentina through July 29th.
South Dakota holds first-ever runoff in Republican gubernatorial primary runoff. The run-off was triggered by a quirky 1985 state law that states that if no candidate in a governor, U.S. Senate, or U.S. House primary clears 35% of the vote, the top two finishers go to a runoff eight weeks later. South Dakota is the only state with this 35% threshold rule.
Special election in Georgia's 13th Congressional District following the death of Representative David Scott (D).
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.
Brazil Current Account (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (July)
USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (June)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (June)/ Redbook (July/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Money Supply (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/24)
Chile Interest Rate Decision
EARNINGS: Boeing, UPS, Visa, Ford, Coca-Cola ASM, Mondelez, PayPal, Boeing, Corning, JetBlue, Royal Caribbean, Visa
Asia
Political/Social Events –
The China International Game Developers Conference (CGDC) begins in Shanghai and runs through July 30th.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch in Sydney.
South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)
Tawain Consumer Confidence (July)
Malaysia PPI (June)
India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)
EARNINGS: Singapore Air
Europe
Political/Social Events –
There will be an informal meeting of EU Fisheries Ministers through July 29th in Cork, Ireland.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (July)/ Conventional Gilt
France Consumer Confidence (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)
Spain Unemployment Rate/ Retail Sales (June)
Slovenia Retail Sales (June)
EARNINGS: Mercedes, GSK, Barclays, Kering, Air Liquide, Orange, Safran, Essilor Luxottica, Man Group, Unilever, LVMH, Michelin
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Israel Unemployment Rate (June)
Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Business Council holds the 9th Industrialization Week in Durban, South Africa through July 31st.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)
Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on SCR 2745 sanctions. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies before the Senate Homeland Security & Government Affairs Committee. Committee Chairman Rand Paul subpoenaed Fauci last month after Fauci declined to appear voluntarily. The panel plans to question him about whether he lied to Congress during the pandemic about whether his office funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Paul has said he wants to ask whether Fauci funded gain-of-function research while telling Congress he hadn't, why certain records were destroyed, and why he sought a presidential pardon. Paul has also claimed declassified documents show Fauci "personally shaped" what the intelligence community told the public about COVID's origins, with 18 agencies relying on his guidance. Fauci received a preemptive pardon from President Biden covering "certain" past federal conduct tied to his government role. Commentators note that the pardon doesn't protect him from lying now — any false testimony in this hearing would be new conduct outside the pardon's scope — which is part of why this hearing is being watched closely regarding whether he might invoke the Fifth Amendment.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces its interest rate decision. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations released
USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/24)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/24)
Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)
EARNINGS: Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, General Dynamics, Qualcomm, SoFi, Boston Scientific, ADP, Humana, Procter & Gamble, Robinhood, Qualcomm
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Japan’s newly created Intelligence Bureau begins operations. Japan is standing up its first centralized intelligence apparatus since World War II, replacing the existing Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office (CIRO) with two new bodies: 1.) The National Intelligence Council (NIC) — the top command-and-decision layer, chaired personally by PM Sanae Takaichi, with 10 members. Its first meeting is set for July 31st, and 2.) The National Intelligence Bureau (NIB) — the operational arm, tasked with gathering, integrating, and analyzing intelligence across government. It'll be led by Kazuya Hara, a former senior police official currently serving as director of Cabinet intelligence. Budget is roughly $407 million, with hiring focused on cybersecurity specialists, software engineers, and liaison officers. Full operations are expected by December. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has framed the launch of the new intelligence service as "a first step" in a broader effort to unwind postwar constitutional restrictions on Japan's security posture, alongside her push for arms-export liberalization. What is driving all this is growing awareness in Japan of increased (and more aggressive) Chinese, Russian, and North Korean activity - as recently reported in the New York Times that dozens of Russian intelligence operatives have relocated to Japan in recent years to source and reroute sanctioned weapons components.
Today, Wallis and Futuna Territory Day is observed, marking the islands’ 1961 transition to a French Overseas Territory.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Australia Inflation Rate (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (June)/ CPI (June)/ Quarterly Inflation Rate/ Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (June)/
Singapore Import/Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)
Japan BoJ JGB Purchase
EARNINGS: SK Hynix, Nomura, Arm, CPKC
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Italy Private Sector Credit (June)/ Industrial Sales (May)
Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (July)
UK BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Approvals (June)/ Mortgage Lending (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)
Greece Unemployment Rate (June)
Ireland GDP Growth Rate
Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Corporate Profits (May)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)
Germany Import Prices (June)
EARNINGS: Aston Martin, Rio Tinto, Airbus, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered, BASF, Eni, L’Oreal, Airbus, Danone, Hermes, Remy Cointreau, Aberdeen, Aston Martin Lagonda, Glencore, Pirelli, Porsche, Electrolux
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
The Mine ENTRA 2026 Conference begins in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe and runs through July 31st. The conference brings together major mining, engineering, and transport leaders to discuss critical mineral extraction and export flows.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)
Mozambique Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Global
The UN Security Council holds the first straw poll on nominees to be the next Secretary-General. It is a secret straw poll to determine which candidates have enough support to stay in the race, with the fifteen members currently discussing six candidates. In successive rounds, council members will be asked to indicate for each candidate whether they are "encouraged," "discouraged," or express "no opinion," repeating the process until a clear frontrunner emerges. There are currently four formal candidates: Michelle Bachelet, Rafael Grossi, Rebeca Grynspan, and Macky Sall.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The US Senate Judiciary Committee votes on Todd Blanche’s nomination to be Attorney General.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Net Payrolls (June)
Mexico GDP Growth Rate/ Fiscal Balance (June)
Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)
USA PCE Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv/ Personal Income (June)/ Personal Spending (June)/ GDP Price Index Adv/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/25)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/18)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ PCE Prices Adv/ GDP Sales Adv/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/25)/ PCE Prices Adv/ Real Consumer Spending Adv/ Real Personal Spending (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/24)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/29)
Columbia Business Confidence (June)
EARNINGS: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Coinbase, Bristol Meyers Squibb, Valero, Altria, Stellantis, Blue Owl, Huntsman, Reddit, Canada Goose, Hershey
Asia
Political/Social Events –
The island nation of Vanuatu celebrates its Independence Day.
The Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show runs through Aug. 9, with a plug-in hybrid electric car announced earlier this year by China's BYD likely to be the highlight of the show. Auto industry players will be watching for hints on whether BYD will become a serious rival to Japanese automakers.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Barrenjoey Economics Forum in Sydney.
South Korea Business Confidence (July)
Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/25)/ Consumer Confidence (July)
New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)
Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)
Australia Building Permits (June)/ Import/Export Prices/ Private House Approvals (June)/ RBA Hunter Speech
Singapore Unemployment Rate
Thailand Industrial Production (June)
EARNINGS: Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic, Keppel
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates. Additionally, the BoE releases its summary of monetary policy and minutes of the committee meeting.
UK Car Production (June)/
France GDP Growth Rate/ Household Consumption (June)
Romania Unemployment Rate (June)
Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate
Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)
Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)
Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)
Germany GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)
Italy GDP Growth Rate/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ PPI (June)
Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)
Greece PPI (June)
Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)
Ukraine Interest Rate Decision
Russia GDP (June)
EARNINGS: Shell, Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic Yum! Brands, TataSteel, ArcelorMittal, Societe Generale, British American Tobacco, BAE Systems, Renault, ING, Lloyds Banking Group, Air France-KLM, Heidelberg Materials, Stellantis, Rolls-Royce, Adidas, Prada, BMW, Renault, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Ferrari, Anglo-America, BAE Systems, Lloyds, London Stock Exchange, Rolls Royce, Prada, Shell
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
South Africa PPI (June)
Friday, July 31, 2026
Global
Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
President Trump will hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David.
National Governors Association summer meeting begins in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and runs through August 1st.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ PPI (June)
Canada GDP (May)/ GDP (June)/ Budget Balance (May)/ Budget Balance (April)
USA Employment Cost - Benefits / Employment Cost - Wages/ Employment Cost Index/ Chicago PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (July)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/31)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/31)
Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)
Columbia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)
Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)
Peru Inflation Rate (July)
EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, AutoNation, AbbVie, Magna, Moderna
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (July)
Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ PPI/ Housing Credit (June)/ PPI/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (July)
South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ Tokyo CPI (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)/ BoJ Gov Ueda Speech
China NBS Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS General PMI (July)
Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Business Confidence
Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)
Thailand Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption (June)/ Private Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (July)
Philippines Business Confidence (June)
Taiwan DP Growth Rate Adv
Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv
Sri Lanka Inflation Rate July)
India Government Budget Value (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)/ M3 Money Supply (July/15)
EARNINGS: Sony, JERA, Maruti Suzuki
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill and BoE Director of Monetary Analysis Fergal Shortall will give a virtual National Agency briefing.
Ireland Retail Sales (June)
Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)
UK Nationwide Housing Prices (July)
Hungary PPI (June)
Switzerland Retail Sales (June)
France Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)
Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Tourism Revenues/ Tourist Arrivals (June)
Poland Inflation Rate (July)
Italy Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)
Spain Current Account (May)
Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)
Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (July)/ CPI Flash (July)
Greece Retail Sales (May)
Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
Ukraine Current Account (June)
EARNINGS: Credit Agricole, EDF, Axa, Engie, Puma, OMV, Pearson, Taylor Wimpey
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
South Africa Budget Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)
Saturday, August 1, 2026
Global
Denmark assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
The current interim Venezuelan government will begin formal talks with Venezuela’s US-backed opposition. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has framed the overall US approach to negotiations and move toward eventual elections as a three-phase plan: political stabilization, economic recovery, transition. However, the devastating late-June earthquakes (5,000+ dead, ~$37bn in damage per UN estimates) have added urgency as reconstruction financing is seen as contingent on political certainty.
Complicating the situation further is the fact thatthe opposition itself is split — Dinorah Figuera, who headed the 2015 National Assembly, which is the last assembly formally recognized by the US Government, has pointedly distanced herself from Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, who's running a separate, parallel initiative on the transition question.
Guam holds primary elections for the US House of Representatives.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)
Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate/ PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
Today is Switzerland National Day.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Russia M2 Money Supply (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Benin celebrates Independence Day.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Kenya Inflation Rate (July)
Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (July)
Sunday, August 2, 2026
Global
The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting takes place to evaluate and decide output targets.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
The full provisions of the EU Artificial Intelligence Act come into force.
North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
Nothing significant to report.
Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead
July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.
July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.
· August 7 – Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is sworn into office.
August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.
September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.
September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.
September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.
· September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.
October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.
October 4: Brazil holds general elections.
October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.
October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.
November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.
December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.
Subscribe to our newsletter.
Sign up with your email address to receive news and updates.