Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The House is Gone Until September, The CLARITY Act is On a Knife’s Edge, The CFPB is a Step Closer to Having a New Director, and DoJ’s Antitrust Division Streamlines Merger Reviews

July 27 - 31, 2026

Washington is quickly going quiet in advance of the traditional August recess. The House of Representatives is now gone until September 7th, and the Senate is here for two more weeks before leaving for its August recess.

The House was able to vote on two major bills before they left, including a “clean” Continuing Resolution (CR) to extend current funding levels for the federal government through December 4th. It is highly unusual for Congress to move so early in the year on a CR, but with the very limited legislative calendar between now and the November midterms (by our count, 15 days), House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) decided it would be better to err on the side of caution and avoid a government shutdown just before the elections.

While the Senate is highly unlikely to approve the House version, negotiations between the House and Senate have already begun in the hope that the House and Senate can vote on a compromise in September before the end of the fiscal year, thereby avoiding a shutdown.

The other major bill the House voted on before leaving is a new Reconciliation bill – the 3rd reconciliation bill of this Congress. While the majority of the bill is focused on defense and intelligence spending ($73 billion combined), there is also $12 billion for farm relief and assistance programs for farmers.

With that in mind, there are still several financial services-related bills hoping to reach the finish line before the midterm elections. Perhaps the biggest is the landmark crypto bill – the CLARITY Act – which is hung up in the Senate despite months of bipartisan negotiations.

This past week, a new revised version - 616 pages long - was unveiled. But that giant THUD! sound you might have heard was the Democrats’ reaction to it. The biggest issue is that they are not happy with the bill’s ethics provisions aimed at policing the involvement of senior politicians and government employees. For Senate Democrats looking at President Trump’s family crypto business, this is a “Must Do/Must Have” issue. But the White House has strongly opposed all Democratic proposals on the issue – and without Democrats’ support, we think the bill will end up dying this year. However, there are reports a last-minute bipartisan group of senators is working to come up with compromise ethics language – so, let’s see if that works before declaring the bill dead.

Also, this past week, the House voted on legislation restricting the ability of members of Congress and their families to buy and sell stocks. However, this bill is also on death’s door as House Republicans inserted a last-minute provision in the bill that is effectively the SAVE Act – the election reform measure President Trump is demanding that requires proof of citizenship and photo ID to register to vote in federal elections (and no way is going to pass in the Senate – so it either comes out of the bill or the whole bill dies in September).

Also, this past week, Brian Johnson, President Trump’s choice to run the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), had his confirmation hearing in the Senate Banking Committee. Our guess is that there is a slim chance Johnson could be confirmed before the Senate leaves for the August recess, but more likely in September. The most interesting part of his confirmation hearing was that he refused to endorse efforts to eliminate the agency. Several Senate Republicans have been seeking either to close the agency or roll it up into another bank regulatory agency – something most observers thought the Trump Administration was aiming to do.

Meanwhile, over at the Justice Department, the Antitrust Division announced it intends to further revamp merger review guidelines, as well as present a new model timing agreement. All in all, the effort is aimed at substantially reducing what companies will be required to produce as part of the reviews.

Also of note, President Trump nominated Adam Candeub, the General Counsel of the Federal Communications Commission, to be the new Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust. He will fill the gap created when Gail Slater was fired as Assistant Attorney General last year.

Looking ahead, it is going to be very quiet. No congressional hearings, no major regulatory meetings, and no speeches by Fed Governors or other major regulators.

Below and attached is our report on financial regulatory-related events for the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

• There are no pertinent hearings scheduled in the Senate this coming week.

House of Representatives

• The House is in August recess until September 1st.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

• ·Tuesday & Wednesday, July 28 & 29 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets on interest rates. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on July 29th.

Conferences –

• No events are scheduled as the Federal Reserve is in its Quiet Period in advance of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this coming week.

U.S. Treasury Department

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• ·Thursday, July 30, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

• Wednesday, July 29, 1:00 p.m. The CFTC’s Agricultural Advisory Committee (AAC), will hold its first meeting of 2026 at CFTC Headquarters in Washington, D.C. Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) will attend the meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• ·There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Wednesday, July 29, 8:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled “North American Trade at a Crossroads.”

• Wednesday, July 29, 8:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2026 Tax Conference in New York.

• Thursday, July 30, 1:00 p.m. – 4:45 p.m. – The American Bankers Association holds the Women Lead Symposium (virtual).

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Recommended Reading/Watching

• Make IPOs Great Again: SEC Chairman Paul Atkins on Ending Regulation By Enforcement  Uncommon Knowledge/Hoover Institution

  America was an investment before it was a nation.” That idea anchors this video conversation between SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and Uncommon Knowledge host Peter Robinson. Atkins argues that vibrant capital markets are essential to American prosperity and explains why he believes excessive regulation has discouraged companies from going public and innovators from building in the United States. The discussion also covers crypto, disclosure rules, investor protection, and the role of free markets in driving economic growth.

• Model Risk Managers See Growing Regulatory Divergence Risk Risk.Net

  The first rewrite of US model risk supervisory guidance in 15 years has received a mixed reception from the banks whose frameworks it governs, a Risk.net study finds, even as two-thirds say they expect to revisit their materiality and tiering frameworks and nearly half to redraw the scope of their model definition entirely as a result. Just four of 22 banks tackling the question in Risk Benchmarking’s study deem SR 26-2, the revised interagency letter, issued in April, a significant step forward.

• The Economics of Regulatory Reform Jeff Rosen/Yale Journal on Regulation

  In April 2026, the White House Council of Economic Advisers issued the 2026 Economic Report of the President. Though seemingly not much noticed to date, Chapter 2 of that report is titled “Promoting Prosperity through Regulatory Reform”. the chapter reviews research on regulatory accumulation, and notes that the number of binding federal regulatory restrictions grew from roughly 400,000 in 1970 to more than 1.1 million in 2024, contributing to higher compliance costs and slower economic growth. It cites one study estimating that the expansion of the administrative state reduced annual GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points between 1980 and 2012, implying that the economy would be nearly 25 percent larger today—about $5.4 trillion in additional output—absent that regulatory surge.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Russia’s Challenging Homefront, China’s External Challenges, The Labor Market Impacts of GLP’s, and How Markets Are Looking to New Places (including oceans) for Critical Minerals

July 24 - 26, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.

What is Happening Inside Russia?

• The Burden of Return: Russia’s Veterans, Regional Strain, and the Politics of Reintegration  Delphi Global

  The scale of the challenge of veteran reintegration in Russia is already outpacing state capacity, with just a fragment of war participants having returned and demobilized. The Prosecutor General publicly berated the government for lagging in the employment and registration of returning soldiers. At the same time, independent reporting confirms widespread stigmatization of veterans in broader society and a lack of service delivery. The Kremlin’s political priority is ensuring the political loyalty of returning soldiers and preventing them from turning into a political force, not improving service delivery. The costs of wider reintegration are being systematically shifted onto regional budgets and, ultimately, the private sector at precisely the moment both are under acute fiscal stress. The resulting squeeze means that the sustained, diffuse costs of veteran healthcare, disability support, and employment - which fall disproportionately on subnational governments and employers - will act as a structural drag on Russia’s public finances and private sector for years to come. According to a February 2025 analysis of the International Institute of Strategic Studies, by the end of 2024 the number of severely wounded service members was already 376,000, with around half of them having lost limbs.
  

• Rebuilding to Reconquer: Can Russia’s Defense Firms Deliver?  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  By some estimates, the scale of state-backed corporate borrowing in Russia is estimated to have ballooned to over $446 billion, with much of that money directly and indirectly supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Overall, in the post-2022 period, Russia has expanded domestic arms production to replace battlefield losses and meet future demand, with defense enterprises at the center of this effort. This report offers the first in-depth examination of five Russian defense firms that cover a broad cross-section of Russia’s defense sector: four major, well-established defense enterprises—Uralvagonzavod, Almaz-Antey, KRET, and Kalashnikov—and a new defense player, Ushkuynik. Together, these firms play central roles in the design, production, scaling, and supply of key systems—tanks and other armored vehicles (Uralvagonzavod), air defense systems (Almaz-Antey), electronic warfare (KRET), artillery and precision weapons (Kalashnikov), and drones (Ushkuynik). The report analyzes the internal and external factors shaping their production dynamics—including historical background and organizational structure, scale of production both before and after the full-scale invasion, revenue and procurement patterns (where possible), labor constraints, and evolving networks of foreign suppliers—and assesses what these trends imply for Russia’s ability to meet current wartime and future reconstitution goals.

China’s External Challenges

• The Gulf’s China Problem Foreign Affairs

  The war in Iran has unsettled the Gulf. Arab states are increasingly frustrated with the United States, which, after launching a war that wreaked havoc on global energy markets, failed to keep them safe from Iranian strikes. But the war is also forcing these countries to reassess their relationship with China. Beijing’s wait-and-see approach to the war and unwillingness to use its leverage over Tehran to contain the conflict have disabused Gulf Arab states of any lingering expectation that China could become an important security partner in the foreseeable future.

• Troubled Straits: Analyzing Trade Chokepoints in the South China Sea Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Each year, trillions of dollars of goods flow through the South China Sea, making it the world’s most consequential maritime corridor. The region is also a hotbed of geopolitical tensions that threaten to upturn global commerce. Despite the enormous stakes, the sea’s critical chokepoints have been poorly understood—until now. This CSIS brief and its companion interactive dashboard offer groundbreaking insight into the value and types of goods transiting eight different South China Sea chokepoints. The new data reveals the extent of each country’s reliance on each chokepoint and challenges existing notions about the importance of these chokepoints.

• The Second China Shock - How This Time Is Different Brad Setser/Markus Academy Podcast

  Brad Setser, a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior US Treasury and US Trade Representative, joined Markus’ Academy for a two-part conversation on the Second China Shock and the Second Coming of Global Imbalances. We will share the second part with implications for Europe tomorrow. Setser’s slides are available here. A summary in three bullets:

  • Concentration and bifurcation: compared to the imbalances of the 2000s or 2010s, today surpluses are concentrated in East Asia, China above all. China’s economy is now bifurcated: exports surge while domestic demand stalls, and due to import substitution policies domestic demand has decoupled from imports;

  • The financial flows have reversed: the pre-GFC’s safe-asset scarcity has ended. Reserve accumulation has stalled, and surpluses are no longer recycled into Treasuries;

  • The mismeasurement of China’s investment income account understates its true surplus, lifting the yuan’s implied undervaluation to ~30%, versus the ~19% implied by the officially-reported surplus (the IMF’s own estimate of undervaluation is smaller still).
    

• Malign Alignment: How China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) Threaten the US and Our Allies George W. Bush Presidential Center

  China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, known together as CRINK, threaten democratic institutions, global security, mineral supply chains, and human rights by challenging the credibility of U.S. leadership. This report breaks down the four major challenges posed by the CRINK alliance and argues the US and its allies can counter their efforts by collective innovation, emerging military technologies, and strategic policy shifts.
  
  

More on the Impact of GLP’s on Society and Markets

• The Labor Market Impacts of GLP-1s N. Meltem Daysal, Camille Fredrickson, Ida Kristiansen, Mircea Trandafir, et al. National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We estimate the causal impacts of GLP-1 treatment on labor market outcomes using linked Danish administrative data and a matched stacked difference-in-differences design. We compare patients who initiate GLP-1 treatment during the first two years of Semaglutide availability to observably similar patients who initiate four years later. We find that GLP-1 treatment reduces long-term sickness leave by 17.3%. We estimate total fiscal benefits of GLP-1 initiation of approximately 1.3–1.5% of annual labor income per employed individual. We do not detect statistically significant or economically meaningful impacts on income, labor force participation, or employment over four years.
  

Latin America’s Growing Space Capabilities

• The Space Race Comes to Latin America  Americas Quarterly

  Why would Ecuador - specifically the area of Guayaquil of all places - be a focus in Latin America’s new space race? Well, the answer is in the country’s name. The Guayaquil area is strategic for a different reason: It sits just two degrees south of the imaginary line dividing the world into two hemispheres. The planet rotates at its maximum speed at the equator—1,040 miles (1,670 kilometers) per hour—making it more efficient to launch rockets from these latitudes. Thanks to the rotational boost, less fuel is needed to reach orbital velocity, which in turn means rockets can carry more payload at a lower cost. Compared to many other countries that sit directly on the equator—a list that includes Congo, Somalia, Uganda and Indonesia, as well as Colombia and Brazil—Ecuador, with its dollarized economy and business-friendly government, looks attractive despite its security challenges
  

• Latin America Has a Space Agency. Now Comes the Hard Part  Americas Society

  The Latin American and Caribbean Space Agency (ALCE) held its first general assembly in Mexico in February, marking the transition of a five-year-old diplomatic ambition into an operational institution. Of the 18 countries that signed the agency’s founding convention in 2021, only 11 ratified it. The challenge ahead is making it matter.
  

• Brazil’s Landmark Satellite Program  Americas Quarterly

  Amazônia-1, the first satellite entirely designed and operated by Brazil, is part of a larger mission. The country plans to put two new units into orbit as part of a mission to observe and monitor deforestation in the Amazon, natural resources, and agricultural areas.
  

Critical Minerals

• Is vanadium the future of critical minerals? Kazakhstan hopes so  Javier Piedra/Asia Times

  Vanadium is viewed as a critical mineral by the United States, the European Union, Russia, China and many other countries because of its importance to energy storage and industrial alloys. Of the critical metals that will define the next half-century, vanadium has perhaps the strongest claim to indispensability: it hardens the steel in our infrastructure and defense systems, and it stores the energy that our grids will increasingly depend on. Yet the market has consistently failed to price that future in, and nowhere is that mispricing more visible than in the vanadium deposits of Kazakhstan.
  

• Seawater holds enough lithium and magnesium for the next 50,000 years, scientists say  Interesting Engineering News

  Researchers in the US have begun developing seawater mining technologies after estimating that just 0.1 percent of seawater has enough critical minerals to supply humanity for the next 50,000 years. Scientists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) believe the world’s oceans contain one of the greatest untapped reserves of critical minerals. These include lithium, magnesium, manganese, cobalt and rare earth elements that are essential for electronics and clean energy.
  

• Critical Minerals: Why Rare Earths Now Shape Defense Power Abby Lilly/Foresight (The Tawazun Council for Defense Enablement – UAE)

  The strategic landscape of defense has shifted dramatically. Where once our supply chain focus centered on optimizing logistics, trimming costs and meeting predictable lead times, today it is inseparable from national security. The raw materials that enable the most advanced weapon systems, such as rare earth elements, gallium, germanium, tungsten, indium, and a growing list of specialty metals, have moved from obscure commodities to the very building blocks of modern military supremacy. Critical minerals are now a strategic constraint on readiness.

• · Mining the deep ocean Natasha Gilbert/Knowable Magazine

  More than 13,000 feet below the surface of the Pacific Ocean, a more-than-70- ton machine trundled like a tank on its caterpillar tracks for a tenth of a mile — sucking up potato-sized nodules of rock packed with copper, manganese, cobalt and nickel. It was 2022, and that pilot run of a subsea harvester by a Canadian business, The Metals Company, was pronounced a success. The company is working to get a green light to deploy similar machines for commercial harvesting over an area of 65,000 square kilometers, to extract over 600 million metric tons of nodules. There are riches on the ocean floor — round deposits made up of tightly packed layers of critical minerals that have long been out of reach. But not anymore. The pursuits of The Metals Company are among 31 initiatives by companies, governments and state-owned enterprises — including China, India and the Republic of Nauru, a tiny island nation in the southwestern Pacific Ocean — to collect nodules for analysis and to test mining equipment.

• The Faults of Long-Term Thinking on Critical Minerals Critical Supply Substack

  The debate over critical minerals is presenting long-term policies that do not alleviate the immediate concerns with this supply chain. As these goods continue to be weaponized by the People’s Republic of China, lawmakers should be thinking of short-term solutions too. Plus, China’s latest AI model is casting doubt on Western leadership — are those concerns justified? Lastly, experts explain the latest political developments in Ukraine.

The Global Week Ahead

The US-Iran Further War Escalates, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet, Britain Gets a New Prime Minister as IMF Issues Warning, Lebanon’s President Travels to Meet Trump, Trump’s Tariffs Set to Expire, and the ECB and PBoC Meet on Interest Rates

July 19 - 26, 2026

Fighting between the US and Iran is likely to further escalate in the coming week as the fragile cease-fire brokered last month is declared “functionally dead." Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Sunday that President Trump’s signature on the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was ‘worthless and unreliable.” And an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran has “no plans for negotiations.”  

US attacks on Iranian military positions and infrastructure significantly ramped up this weekend following an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan, killing three US servicemen, and the killing of a US serviceman in Northern Iraq by an Iranian drone.  Iranian missile and drone strikes have also hit US sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.

At this point, Iran’s rhetorical posture is now uniformly rejectionist across the Supreme Leader's office, Iran's negotiating team, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry — a marked shift from the ambiguity and disunity heard in early July.  The best bet for a return to a ceasefire and a possible return to the negotiating table is via Omani and Pakistani diplomatic efforts.  Still, for now, those efforts are falling on deaf ears in Tehran.

Adding to tensions in the region, the Saudi-Houthi truce that has been in effect since 2022 may now be breaking down, threatening a second war front in the Gulf region.  The truce began unraveling on July 13th when air strikes by Yemen's internationally recognized government (seen as being backed and assisted by Saudi Arabia) blocked an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthis delegation, which included Iranian military experts, from landing in Sanaa, Yemen, which is under control of the Houthis.  The Houthis retaliated by firing missiles at the Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia. 

Markets will also be watching Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's visit to Washington to meet with President Trump.   This is Aoun's first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as President, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009. 

The White House is hoping to bolster Aoun's efforts to help de-escalate Israeli-Hezbollah fighting in southern Lebanon and begin moving on a plan to disarm Hezbollah fighters (something Hezbollah leaders adamantly refuse to do).   The Trump-Aoun meeting could also result in an announcement of new investment funding to help rebuild the beleaguered country following years of war.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers will be gathering in Manila, the Philippines, this week.  Joining them will be US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, Japan, and the UK.   The meeting will focus on hammering out a South China Sea code of conduct to cool tensions among China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. 

But the real action may be on the sidelines as markets will be watching for any bilateral meetings between Rubio and Wang or between Rubio and Lavrov to discuss Ukraine peace talks.  Additionally, Rubio and the foreign ministers of Japan, India, and Australia will hold a Quad meeting to discuss security issues of mutual concern.

In London, Andy Burnham will formally become the UK's new prime minister, the seventh prime minister the country has had since 2016.  Burham is facing a host of economic challenges that were made tougher this week by the IMF warning against raising the top income tax rate, as it assesses that this will further hurt the economy.  Burnham is seeking a way to offset rising energy costs in the wake of the Iran War.

Back here in Washington, the Trump Administration's 10% Section 122 tariffs are set to expire later this week.  The President put these tariffs in place to replace the tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court earlier this year.  Trump cannot renew the tariffs – only the US Congress can do that – but he can effectively do so by raising the rate to 15%, something he has said he intends to do.  The rationale for the higher rates, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative, is that they will be human rights violations in more than 50 countries (see below for the full list of countries targeted).   Also this week, Brazil gets its own, separate Section 301 25% tariffs imposed by President Trump.

Turning the global economic and financial radar screen, the big events this week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on rates and the People's Bank of China's decision on rates.  

While the ECB meeting will dominate European market news, a few other important reports will be released this week.  The UK releases labor figures on Tuesday and June CPI numbers on Wednesday.  And the July ZEW surveys for Germany are out on Tuesday.

In Asia, aside from the PBoC interest rate announcement, Japan's trade balance is released on Wednesday, and the June CPI is released on Friday. 

Here in the US, initial jobless claims are released on Thursday, and flash PMIs and new home sales are released on Friday.  And Canada's June CPI is out on Monday, and May retail sales data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Global

·       The World Cup Championship is played in New Jersey.

·       Talks to develop rules on deep-sea mining continue at the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica through July 24th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines will host the 59th Association of Southeast Asian Nations Foreign Ministers' Meeting and related meetings in Manila through July 24th.

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul begins a two-day visit to Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Community of West African States will hold the bloc's 69th Ordinary Summit of heads of state and government in Sierra Leone.

·       São Tomé and Principe hold presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 20, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on Haiti, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu is set to visit Washington, D.C. (and possibly Miami, Florida) as a preparatory meeting for President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to the US in September.

·       Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday. Outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to give a national speech calling for the mobilization supporters in opposition to the incoming government.

·       The United States and Mexico will hold the third round of bilateral talks on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board is in a Quiet Period in advance of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meetings.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Common (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean  (June)/ CFIB Business Barometer (July)

·       USA CB Leading Index (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Dominos, Zions Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia will host Exercise Pitch Black, military drills involving 20 countries, through Aug. 7.

·       Today is Marine Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/ Loan Prime Rate 5Y (July)

·       Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       India Infrastructure Output (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Andy Burnham is set to be sworn in as the UK’s new Prime Minister, becoming the country’s seventh premier since the 2016 Brexit vote.  He will enter 10 Downing Street after meeting with King Charles.  Burnham takes office just as the IMF issued a warning that the UK cannot boost public spending, something the new Prime Minister to do to deal with the energy shock caused by the Iran War.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Mario Draghi on competitiveness in Brussels.  The meeting is a follow-up to Draghi’s landmark report last year detailing how and why the EU needs to streamline regulation and slash red tape.

·       Romania's Parliament will hold an extraordinary session on legislation tied to the country's EU recovery funds, during which President Nicusor Dan aims to have a new government sworn in.

·       There will be an informal of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Research and Innovation) through July 21st in Brussels.

·        A delegation of EU Members of Parliament from the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will be in Washington D.C. this week to discuss the global economic and the geopolitical outlook, the US political agenda, and developments in the fields of banking and finance. They will meet members of the House of Representatives, officials from the Treasury, the IMF, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodities and Futures Exchange Commission. MEPs will also meet with representatives from think tanks and civil society organizations.

·       The Farnborough International Airshow begins in Hampshire, England, with investors watching for major aircraft deals

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (June)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (June)/Employment Growth (June)/ Industrial Production  (June)/ PPI (June)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (May)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (June)

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index  Q2

·       Jordon Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Commission’s Joint 9th Specialized Technical Committee (STC) on Finance, Monetary Affairs, Economic Planning and Integration begins in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.  Concurrently, the 5th STC on Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals runs through July 24th — this is the AU's main finance-and-trade ministerial track, relevant for AfCFTA implementation and critical minerals positioning.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. This is Aoun’s first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as president, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009.  The White House is hoping to advance the June 26 framework agreement with Israel, with talks focusing on Israeli troop withdrawal and extending Lebanese state authority in the south. The meeting comes one week after the US, Israel, and Lebanese negotiators met in Rome where they agreed on a "pilot zones" arrangement.  The White House is also hoping to publicly give Aoun US backing to strengthen his position at home, where Hezbollah rejects both the framework and disarmament. Aoun himself has called the framework "not ideal" but reflective of the balance of power and says he expects positive outcomes. Markets should watch to see if a withdrawal timeline is set for Hezbollah forces and any significant financing commitments for reconstruction of Lebanon.

·       US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Joint Chiefs of Staff are scheduled to testify before the US Senate Appropriations Committee on the Administration’s requested $80 billion request for Iran War operations.  The hearing will likely spill over into hard questions about war authorization from Congress (or the lack thereof), the status of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of Iran strikes on Gulf States and US military facilities based there.

·       The US Intelligence Committee is expected to vote on the nomination of Jay Clayton to be the next Director of National Intelligence.  A full Senate vote could come by the end of the week.

·       Arizona holds a primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanael Benjamin speak at the OMFIF Conference in London.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (May)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (July)/18/API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (July/17)

·       Columbia Imports/Balance of Trade (May)/ SE Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (June)

·       EARNINGS: Halliburton, Ally, Danaher, Charles Schwab, 3M, General Motors, MSCI, Alaska Air, EQT, CapitalOne, Equifax, Hasbro, Marsh & McClennan, Northrup Grumman, Novartis

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 59th ASEAN foreign ministers begins and runs through July 24th in Manila, the Philippines. The meeting will also see the foreign ministers of the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, Australia, Canada and the U.K in attendance as special guests.  The agenda will cover the South China Sea Code of Conduct, which the Philippines hopes to see finalized but probably will not happen as many countries – especially China – have fundamental differences over what the deal should look like. Beijing has proposed banning joint military drills with countries outside Southeast Asia and restricting oil and gas exploration to intra-regional partnerships — poison pills for the Philippines and Vietnam.  Other agenda items include an informal consultation on a Five-Point Consensus on what to do with Myanmar, and energy security and the Iran War economic impact on the region.  On the sidelines of the meeting, a Quad (US/Japan/Australia/India) foreign ministers meeting with take place from the 20th to the 21st and a subsequent ministerial meeting to take place in Australia.  Markets will be watching closely for any bilateral meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as well as how Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is received at the meeting.

·       The Japanese Diet goes into an extended session in an effort to pass the secondary capital bill which would authorize the building of a backup city capable of assuming core government functions in the event of a major disaster.   The bill is also designed to decentralize economic activity in and around Tokyo.  Opposition parties have attacked the bill as biased toward the cities of Osaka and Ishin.

·       Today is Liberation Day in Guam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q2

·       Tawain Export Orders (June)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the European Parliament from the Foreign Affairs Committee will travel to Beijing and Shanghai to discuss critical issues including Russia’s war against Ukraine, human rights, security challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and China's influence on supply chains. MEPs will raise other matters of common interest including multilateralism, climate diplomacy, and the international governance of AI. They will meet with, among others, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the leadership and foreign affairs committee of the National People's Congress.

·       Today is National Day in Belgium, marking the date in 1831 when Leopold of Saxe-Coburg-Saalfeld took the oath as the first King of the Belgians.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

·       UK Unemployment Rate (May)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Claimant Count Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (June)

·       Greece Current Account (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (May)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Energy Forum begins in Houston, Texas and runs through July 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

 

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international security: Natural resource governance: The foundation of peace, security and prosperity. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A status hearing is scheduled for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in his US narcoterrorism and drug trafficking case.

·       US Section 301 tariffs on Brazil imports set at 25% go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/17)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/17)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/17)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (May)

·       EARNINGS: AT&T, GE Verona, Philip Morris, Pulte Group, Moody’s, Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, Texas Instruments, Kinder Morgan, Crown Castle, CSX,  Chubb, Raymond James, Rogers Communications (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Taiwan is scheduled to travel to Washington, D.C. to meet with US government officials and members of Congress and leading think tanks.  They will be in the US through July 26th.  The delegation is led by Tsai Chi-chang who previously served as Commissioner of the Chinese Professional Baseball League.  He will throw out the first pitch at the New York Mets game against the Los Angeles Dodgers and also meet with Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred in New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (June)

·       Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (June)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/21)

·       Indonesia     Interest Rate Decision/  Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)/ Loan Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Tawain Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates.

·       The European Commission’s provisional deadline for a decision on Paramount Skydance’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery.

·       UK Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI Output (June)/ PPI Input (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)

·       Poland Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ M3 Money Supply  (June)/Retail Sales (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Russia Industrial Production (June)/ PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: Alstom (FRA), AkzoNobel, Dassault Aviation, Moncler, Mulberry, Reach, ServiceNow, Banco Santander, Schindler

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (June)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security [SCR 2788 – peaceful settlement of disputes]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

·       Candidates to be the next UN Secretary-General participate in a town hall at the UN General Assembly in New York.  The candidates include former President of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet Jeria,  Former President of the UN General Assembly María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés (Ecuador), Rafael Mariano Grossi (Argentina):, the current Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis (Costa Rica), Former Vice President of Costa Rica and Secretary-General of the UN Trade and Development, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (Guyana), the current Permanent Representative of Guyana to the UN, and Macky Sall (Senegal), Former President of Senegal. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Office of the US Trade Representative holds a hearing to review which countries will be eligible for the 2027 renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade pact.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (June)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (May)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (July)

·       Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/18)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/11)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/18)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/17)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/22)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: American Airlines, Huntington Bank, Freeport McMaRon, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, CEMEX, Tractor Supply, Intel, Newmont, Sallie Mae

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers is set to take place in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan through July 24th.  The meeting will finalize the agenda and review documents for the upcoming SCO Council of Heads of State Summit taking place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, from August 31st to September 1st.  

·       The Wiki Finance Expo, billed as one of the biggest fintech events in Asia, kicks off in Hong Kong. The two-day conference is expected to attract over 12,000 attendees to hear hundreds of speakers and exhibitors talk about cryptocurrencies and other financial innovations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Australia Employment Change (June)/ Full Time Employment Chg (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Part Time Employment Chg (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (June)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Singapore  Inflation Rate (June)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (June)

·       Tawain Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

·       China FDI (YTD) (June)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU’s extension of the cap on Russian oil prices expires unless renewed.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through July 24th in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (June)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

·       France Business Confidence (July)/ Business Climate Indicator (July)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (July)/ Overnight Lending Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (June)

·       UK Conventional Gilt/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q3/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (July)

·       EARNINGS: Nokia, BNP Paribas, Dassault Systemes, Carrefour, TotalEnergies (FRA), Unicredit (ITALY), Thales, T-Mobile, Roche, Nestlé, Kuehne+Nagel, Morgan Sindell, Heathrow, , Getlink, Centrica, Carrefour

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt will observe Revolution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (May)/Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, July 24, 2026

Global

·       The International Criminal Court members vote on whether to dismiss prosecutor Karim Khan for alleged sexual misconduct, which he denies.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s latest trade tariffs – set at 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (which he implemented after the Supreme Court in February struck down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – are set to expire.  Only the US Congress can extend it. However, the tariffs can effectively be renewed by the President if he puts in new tariffs at a15% rate, which he has previously stated he intends to do.  The US Trade Representative’s Office has been building the rationale for the new, higher rate under a forced-labor rationale, holding hearings earlier this month.  The USTR announced they are focused on 54 countries which include: Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Australia, the Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Egypt, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Peru, the Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Türkiye, UAE, UK, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Six others — Canada, Ecuador, the EU, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan — have import prohibitions in their laws but were found by USTR  to have failed to enforce them

·       The Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercise begins off the coast of Hawaii. The three-month long military training event is the world’s largest maritime warfare exercise involves more than 30 surface ships, five submarines, 140 aircraft and more than 25,000 personnel from 31 different countries.

·       President Donald Trump attends the rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (June)

·       USA Building Permits (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ New Home Sales (June)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (July)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/24)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/24)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (June)/ PPI (June)/ Raw Materials Prices (June)/Wholesale Sales (June)

·       Chile PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: Verizon, Charter Communications, American Express, Verizon, the Hartford Financial, , SLB, NextEra Energy, Booz Allen, HCA Healthcare, CN Railway (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (June)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/18)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/New Car Sales (June)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Index (May)

·       India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/10)/ Deposit Growth (July/10)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)/M3 Money Supply (June/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Scottish city of Edinburgh institutes a visitor’s levy, taxing anyone visiting the city.  City Councilors hope to raise more than £150 million annually from it.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in an on-stage conversation at the MacGill Summer School 2026 in Donegal, Ireland

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (July)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence AUG/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain PPI (June)

·       France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina's President Javier Milei will travel to Brasilia, Brazil to attend the launch of right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign.  Milei then will to Lima, Peru to attend the July 28th inauguration of President-elect Keiko Fujimori.  From there he will go to Ecuador to see President Daniel Noboa going to Colombia to attend the August 7th  inauguration in Colombia of President-elect Abelardo De La Espriella. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Maldives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Russia celebrates Navy Day.  Normally, there is a big parade in St. Petersburg but for the second year in a row, it has been cancelled because Ukrainian drone forces are capable of striking the city and the parade without Russian military forces being able to defend adequately against them.

The 113th Tour de France cycling race concludes today with the 21st and final stage ending up in Paris.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius will host the U.S.-Africa Business Summit through July 29.

·       Today is Independence Day in Liberia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

·       July 28: Keiko Fujimori is inaugurated President of Peru.

·       July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.

·       July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.

·       August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

·       September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

·       September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

·       September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

·       October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

·       October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

·       October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election are held.  All members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

·       November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

·       November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

·       December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Senate Banking Holds Confirmation Hearing for a New CFPB Director, Prediction Markets Get A Hard Look in the House, and CFPB Close to New Consumer Financial Data Rule

July 20 - 24, 2026

Capitol Hill may be enveloped in a thick smoky haze from wildfires up north, but key congressional committees are still gearing up for a busy week next week. The Senate Banking Committee is holding a confirmation hearing this coming Thursday for President Trump’s third nominee to serve as Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Brian Johnson.

The previous two nominees were Jonathan McKiernan (who was instead nominated to serve as Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance, a role he held until last week)and Stuart Levenbach (whose nomination was yanked to make him Chair of the Interagency Council on Statistical Policy).

Johnson has a strong background in financial regulation. He is a former senior bank lawyer who later served at the CFPB in 2017. He then went to work at Patomak Global Partners, a strategy/risk management/regulatory affairs consultancy founded by current SEC Chair Paul Atkins. Johnson went from there to Capital One, where he was Vice President and Chief U.S. Card Compliance Officer.

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We think he’s likely to get grilled by Committee Democrats for his closeness to the industry and for having served at a major credit card company – but it’s highly likely he ultimately gets confirmed.

Others joining Johnson at the hearing include John Crews, a member of the board of the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). He’ll be the first new NCUA board member since early last year, when President Trump fired the Democratic members of the board. Currently, Crews is serving as the Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions. And previously, he was the Banking Committee’s Policy Director – so the hearing will be something of a homecoming.

Also, this coming week, the House Agriculture Committee will hold a hearing titled “Examining Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Prediction Markets.” While focused on sports betting, the timing could not be better, as it was discovered this past week that the White House teleprompter operator was making large bets in the prediction market Kalshi on what President Trump was going to say in his speeches(he’s been suspended from his job).

Looking at what happened last week, we would note that Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh made some interesting comments in his House and Senate hearings about regulation. When asked by Senator Katie Britt (R-Ala) about the Fed’s effort on bank regulation tailoring, Warsh said:

“…broadly, I’ll step back and say modernizing our banking system, streamlining regulations so that the rules that apply to the systemically important financial institutions are not one size fits all for every other. The secret to the American economy is we have a few 1000 banks and other providers of credit who know their smaller markets bigger. I’d rather have that system than what most of our G20 peers have, where they have a half a dozen institutions implicitly backed by their government. I think reform is coming to supervision and regulation.

I have my own ideas that might be as dramatic as I’ve already shared on monetary policy here, and I think the sooner we can get to the bottom of it, the better. If I could say one more thing, the reforms we’ve been putting in place over the last 15 years, coming out of Dodd-Frank, as we learned in the Silicon Valley Bank example, in the First Republic example, they didn’t work perfectly. My predecessors had very little choice but then to do another overall bailout. We don’t want that to happen again, so we want to tailor the rules and the capital, so they serve the best interests of the US economy, which I describe as a system that is safe, sound, and competitive.”

Also last week, Acting CFPB Director Russ Vought revealed the CFPB is close to unveiling a rewrite of regulations governing access to consumers’ financial data– rewriting Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act. The Biden Administration rule – which was blocked by a federal judge - banned banks from charging for access to their customers’ financial data.

That rule hit Fintech firms, digital asset companies, and retailers who heavily rely on that data for their payment platforms (which made banks happy). But fintech and crypto firms rallied, lobbying Vought hard to rewrite the rule rather than letting the court strike it down. Vought’s comments served as something of a starter gun for a new and very tough battle between banks and the fintech/crypto worlds, which is likely to go on for some time.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Thursday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will meet in Executive Session to vote on the nomination Dr. Christopher Phelan, to be Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President; John Crews, to be a Member of the National Credit Union Administration; and Jeffrey Ledbetter, to be Inspector General, Department of Housing and Urban Development. The Committee then will conduct a hearing for Brian Johnson, to be Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau; Ms. Abby Warren, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Commerce; and Irving Dennis, to be Chief Financial Officer, Department of Housing and Urban Development.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, July 21, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee hearing on “Oversight of the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network.”

· Tuesday, July 21, 10:00 a.m. - The House Agriculture Committee’s Commodity Markets, Digital Assets, and Rural Development Subcommittee holds a hearing on “Examining Prediction Markets: Customer Protections and Market Integrity in Sports Event Markets.”

· Tuesday, July 21, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on “Oversight of the Federal Home Loan Bank System.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· The Federal Reserve Board is in a Quiet Period in advance of the July 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Conferences –

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· July 21, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC holds a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· Thursday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a confirmation hearing for Brian Johnson to be Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, July 21, 1:45 a.m. – SIFMA holds a member briefing on the US Economic Outlook.

· Wednesday -Thursday, July 22 – 23 – The National Council of Farmer Cooperatives holds its 2026 Washington Conference. House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, (R-Mo.) delivers remarks on “House Tax & Trade Priorities.”

· Thursday, July 23, 10:30 a.m. – SIFMA co-hosts with Deloitte a Forum entitled “Scaling AI Maturity in Financial Services.”

Think Tanks and Other Events

· July 21 – 22 - The Brookings Institution Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy; Purdue University Mitch Daniels School of Business; Brandeis School of Business and Economics Rosenberg Institute of Global Science; and the University of Texas at Austin Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs hold its annual Municipal Finance Conference in Washington, D.C.

· July 21 – 23 – The Association of Government Accountants holds its Professional Development Training 2026 in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, July 21, 2:30 p.m. – The CATO institute is holding a policy forum entitled “A Forum for Lasting Affordability”

Recommended Reading

• It’s Time for Ottawa to Fulfill its Responsibility on Systemic Risk and Market Enforcement C.D. Howe Institute

  In a new report from the Toronto-based think tank, the authors call for Ottawa to revive key elements of the unfinished capital markets reform agenda. “Rather than reopening the long-running debate over a single national securities regulator, the report focuses on what tools are needed to manage systemic risk and strengthen criminal enforcement of capital market misconduct.”

• Why is bank enforcement declining? Aaron Klein and Cameron Connell, Brookings Institution

  Enforcement of rules by bank regulators has declined, as measured by formal enforcement actions. The decline in enforcement has occurred across administrations, in contrast to the narrative of a pendulum of enforcement that swings between Democratic and Republican administrations. Instead, the data show a stepwise decline in enforcement in which subsequent administrations either maintain lower enforcement rates or continue to decrease enforcement. Enforcement decline varies substantially by regulator: the sharpest decline is at the Federal Reserve (Fed), where formal enforcement actions have fallen by nearly 50 percent since Covid.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Crypto and US Household Finance, How Disconnected Youth Spend Their Time, Challenges to the US Industrial Base Policy, and the EU Growing Focus on Geopolitical/Geoeconomic Threats

July 17 - 19, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.

Crypto, AI, and Fiscal Policy

• Do You Even Crypto, Bro? Cryptocurrencies in Household Finance  Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  Using repeated large-scale surveys of US households, we study the cryptocurrency investment decisions and motives of households relative to other financial assets. Cryptocurrency holders tend to be young, male, and more libertarian relative to non-crypto holders. Crypto holders expect much higher rates of return for crypto and perceive it as relatively safer than non-holders do. For those holding cryptocurrencies, changes in Bitcoin prices translate into their purchases of durable goods. Finally, information about historical returns of cryptocurrencies in an information provision experiment embedded in the survey leads individuals to increase their desired crypto holdings and increases their actual cryptocurrency purchases subsequently. We compare these views and behaviors to those of households toward other financial assets and argue that cryptocurrency is unique in many of these respects.

• How Might Fiscal Policy Respond to the Rise of Artificial Intelligence? Karen Dynan, Douglas Elmendorf, and Louise Sheiner – National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: Artificial intelligence will probably generate major changes in the US economy, although the nature, timing, and magnitude of those changes are highly uncertain. We analyze a set of long-term scenarios involving different combinations of faster productivity growth, greater income inequality, job displacement, and a higher capital share of income. For each scenario, we assess the implications for federal debt and potential policy responses related to faster economic growth, the distribution of income, support for workers who are laid off, and taxation and ownership of capital. Given the uncertainty surrounding AI’s economic effects, policies that are robust to different scenarios would be especially valuable.

• Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2025  Federal Reserve Board Research and Analysis

  A recent Federal Reserve Board research piece shows that 49% of U.S. adults under 30 lived with a parent in 2025, up 12 percentage points since 2019, while 33% of adults lived in households with at least two generations of adults. Specifically, 19% of adults lived with their adult children (age 18 or older), and 15% lived with a parent. Two percent of adults simultaneously lived with a parent and an adult child. The share of young adults who live with their parents has increased in recent years. In 2025, 49% of adults under age 30 lived with a parent. This share was up by 6 percentage points since 2022, and up 12 percentage points since 2019, just before the pandemic. Conversely, adults aged 60 and older were more likely to live alone than were younger adults. Overall, 13% of people lived alone in 2025. Among those ages 60 and older, a higher 20% were living alone.

• How Are “Disconnected” Young Adults Spending Their Time?  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  In 2024, the share of U.S. 18- to 24-year-olds who were neither employed nor enrolled in school—that is, “disconnected”—was measured at 16%. That share remained essentially unchanged as of December 2025, despite a generally healthy labor market overall. Rural young adults, less-educated young adults, young Black adults, and young adults from lower-income families tended to have higher rates of disconnection than their peers. The American Time Use Survey offers a nuanced view of how disconnected young adults spend their time, suggesting constraints on the way their time can be allocated rather than disengagement or inactivity. Disconnected young adults spend more time on caregiving responsibilities and household activities than their not-disconnected peers, and less time on work- and education-related activities. Patterns in social and leisure time are similar across both groups.

• The AI Investment Race  Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul - Bank of International Settlements

  AI infrastructure investment is expanding faster than any previous technology boom, including the railway mania and dotcom bubble, within just three years. Debt-fueled buildout and circular financing arrangements are creating financial interconnectedness that makes the current cycle more fragile and prone to sharp correction. The analysis warns, “Their model suggests that investment is 50% above the efficient level.” This fragility is further aggravated by the leverage that accompanies the rapid ramp-up of investment. This boom-bust pattern recurs across history, from the US canal mania in the 1830s and the British railway mania in the 1840s to the roaring 20s and the dotcom boom in the late 90s. These episodes all ended in sharp corrections with wider economic fallout.

The EU’s Global Threat Analysis & The Challenges to US Industrial Base Policy

• Common Understanding – The Threats and Challenges We Face: Assessment of the EU’s Strategic Environment Council of the European Union

  A new EU report argues The EU faces an uncertain geostrategic context driven by sustained, simultaneous threats on multiple fronts – but singles out China and Russia of trying to “reshape the global order in line with their interests” and “fostering a return to a sphere-of-influence logic.”

• The Coming Clash Between China and Europe Thorsten Benner/Foreign Affairs

  In 2025, Chinese leader Xi Jinping tried to capitalize on U.S. belligerence toward Europe by promoting China as the responsible great-power alternative. In a message sent to mark the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and the European Union, Xi invited Brussels to join forces with Beijing, to “uphold multilateralism, safeguard fairness and justice,” and “oppose unilateralism and bullying.” Key EU leaders, as well as the Brussels bureaucracy, are not buying it. They have concluded that the very survival of Europe’s core industries is threatened by China. Increasingly, European leaders are arguing that the EU needs to take action to protect its industries. So severe is the threat that measures that were unthinkable a few years ago are now gaining momentum. An all-out trade war with China is becoming a real possibility.

• Europe must really confront China now: delay is no longer an option Steven Everts/European Union Institute for Security Studies

  Europe urgently needs a serious debate on China. Not a technical discussion about tariffs, subsidies, or market access, but a strategic one. After all, China affects everything at once: industrial policy, defense, technology, critical raw materials, and trade. This is geopolitics, and therefore a top priority. The challenge is becoming more urgent. Pressure is growing in sector after sector. Electric cars, batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, pharmaceuticals, chemicals – European companies are feeling the rise of Chinese competition everywhere. Behind this lies an economic model in which state aid, cheap financing, export promotion, and strategic market access are closely intertwined. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly difficult for European companies to operate in China itself under fair conditions.

• Is the Industrial Base on a Wartime Footing? A Progress Report  Jerry McGinn and A.J. Dilts - Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Roughly 10,000 new firms have entered the market in the past two years and nontraditional companies received over $120 billion in contract obligations in FY 2025, adding competition and innovation to the sector. Munitions contract obligations have risen 330% since FY 2010. Spurred by this increased demand and depleted inventories, the Pentagon is signing multiyear agreements with munitions producers and suppliers on a historic scale. In addition to developing magazine depth, the DOD is prioritizing magazine breadth, placing an increased emphasis on equipping the Joint Force with a “high-low mix” of both exquisite and affordable missiles and interceptors. Stockpiles require resilient supplies of subcomponents, and new firms and forms of government-industry collaboration are reshaping the solid rocket motor (SRM) sub-sector. At the bedrock of defense supply chains, unprecedented commitments of public and private capital are focused on establishing a secure mine-to-magnet rare earth supply chain outside Chinese control.

• Scaling Patriot Production: The Industrial Base Crisis Explained  Foreign Policy Research Institute

  On April 10th this year, after coalition forces had fired at least 1,700 Patriots in just five weeks, the Pentagon announced $4.76 billion contract to accelerate production. While a seemingly forceful response, the move only highlighted the core problem. At the current build rate of 600 missiles per year, it would take three years to replace what was used in a little over a month. Replenishment runs on an industrial clock, and that clock is measured in years, not days. Patriot missile expenditure by the United States and its allies in the 2026 Iran War is the clearest case study in command of the reload. The problem is not simply how to fire more missiles, but how to sustain missile defense once the opening magazine is gone. That requires three things:

  • Buying time through multiyear demand that gives industry room to invest;

  • Buying redundancy across the sub-tier bottlenecks that pace production

  • Buying efficiency through defensive doctrines that preserve premium interceptors for premium threats.

  For decades, US grand strategy was what Barry Posen famously called “Command of the Commons,” the ability to dominate every war-fighting domain to shape the terms of a conflict. That advantage still matters, but the Iran war exposed the harder foundation beneath it. The United States can expend advanced precision-guided munitions in weeks, while the defense-industrial base takes years to replace them. Command of the commons now depends more heavily on “Command of the Reload.”

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

July 13 - 17, 2026

Fed Chair Warsh Gives His First Semiannual Report to Congress, Treasury Undersecretary McKernan Set to Exit, and the White House Prepares Australian-Style Retirement Accounts

Washington cannot wait to get to August, the quietest time of the year, as everyone heads out on vacation. But until then, it is going to be a busy couple of weeks ahead.

The big event of the week is Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s first semi-annual report to Congress.  While the bulk of the testimony and questions and answers will focus on the economy, there is a high likelihood that Warsh will be asked about several regulatory efforts underway at the Fed. 

Also this week, both the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee will hold their respective annual review hearings on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).  The fact is, the CFPB has been reduced to a skeletal staff that does little, as the Trump Administration (and many Republican members of Congress) would like to see it abolished.  With that in mind, House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark) is preparing a draft CFPB reform bill that may simply fuse the agency into another prudential banking agency.  We might see a draft or a preliminary description of what Chair Hill wants at the hearing.

Down at the Treasury Department, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will be meeting on Tuesday. The preliminary agenda for the meeting includes a presentation on the Council’s recent tabletop exercise on geopolitical risk; the Council’s work on artificial intelligence; the Council’s quarterly financial stability monitor; the Council’s proposed interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company designations; and the Council’s 2026 annual report.* 

Staying with Treasury for a moment, there was surprising news this past week that Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Jonathan McKernan is departing.   McKernan had served on the board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and had served as a key architect of much of the Trump Administration’s bank regulatory reform efforts.  In February 2025, McKernan had been named Director of the Consumer Financial Protection Board, but the nomination was withdrawn.  He was later nominated to serve as Undersecretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance, a role he has held since October 2025.

Also, last week, the White House floated the idea of creating Australia-inspired retirement savings accounts and is apparently drafting legislation to make it happen.  Australia has a superannuation program that requires companies to contribute 12 percent of their workers’ pay into a retirement plan.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Wednesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Thursday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.” Director of the Office of Management and Budget/Acting Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Russell Vought, will testify.

·       Thursday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a confirmation hearing to consider the nominations of Francis Brooke to be Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, Erin Browne to be Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, Sriprakash Kothair to be Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, and George McMaster to be Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, July 14, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       Wednesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “The Semi-Annual Report of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection.” Director of the Office of Management and Budget/Acting Director, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Russell Vought will testify.

·       Friday, July 17, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence will hold a field hearing in new York (Federal Hall) entitled “Building the Future of Finance: How the CLARITY Act Unlocks Innovation.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

·       Monday, July 13, 5:25 a.m. ET - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak virtually at the Bank Policy Institute’s Roundtable.

·       Monday, July 13, 12:30 p.m. ET - Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give an economic update at the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) in New York.

·       Tuesday, July 14, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       Tuesday, July 14,12:40 p.m. –  Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.   He will later participate in a fireside chat on the issue of artificial intelligence and financial inclusion.

·       Tuesday, July 14, 1:00 p.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before hybrid Kenosha Area Business Alliance Business Lunch event in Chicago, Illinois.

·       Tuesday, July 14, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech entitled “Consumers, AI, and Financial Inclusion: Balancing Opportunities and Challenges” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, July 14, 2:55 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a pre-recorded video speech entitled “Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Wednesday, July 15, 8:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives a keynote speech and participates in a conversation organized by the Partnership for New York City.

·       Wednesday, 11:00 a.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Board President Alberto Musalem gives the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture in St. Louis, Missouri.

·       Wednesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Wednesday, July 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives an economic outlook at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, July 16, 12:00 p.m. – Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeff Schmid gives his perspective on the economy at the Grand Island Economic Forum in Grand Island, Nebraska.

·       Thursday, July 16, 12:30 p.m. – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in moderated question-and-answer session sharing insights about her leadership role at the Federal Reserve, her experiences as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee and her perspectives on the evolving economic landscape in a Fed Listening Tour event.

·       Thursday, July 16, 7:00 p.m. ET – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Navigating Economic Shocks” at Stanford University.

Conferences –

·       Tuesday, July 14, 12:30 – 5:30 p.m. – The Federal Reserve Board hosts the 3rd Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, "Next-Gen Financial Inclusion," in Washington, D.C. 

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Tuesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) will meet in Executive Session.  The preliminary agenda for the meeting includes a presentation on the Council’s recent tabletop exercise on geopolitical risk; the Council’s work on artificial intelligence; the Council’s quarterly financial stability monitor; the Council’s proposed interpretive guidance on nonbank financial company designations; and the Council’s 2026 annual report.* 

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Monday, July 13, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC’s Office of the Advocate for Small Business Capital Formation is partnering with the Division of Corporation Finance to host a discussion entitled ”Rethinking the Rulebook: Modernizing the IPO Process and Access to Public Capital.”

·       Thursday, July 16, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

·       Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

https://www.cato.org/blog/postal-banking-has-died-zero-customers-years

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, July 14, 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “Two years later: How have our nation’s institutions responded to Loper Bright and the end of Chevron deference?”

·        Wednesday, July 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives an economic outlook at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

Recommended Reading\

• What Do Over 3,000 Bank Runs Teach Us About Banking Crises?   Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  Runs on financial institutions are one of the salient markers of financial crises. But the role of runs in crises is a topic of longstanding debate. Runs can be seen as the key turning point, whereby even small shocks can generate severe crises with widespread bank failures. Another view is that runs are mainly a symptom of deeper rot in the financial system, exacerbating crises rather than being their primary cause. Understanding this debate has first-order implications for how to think about financial crises and the appropriate policy responses. In this post, we use a new database of more than 3,000 bank runs (introduced in our companion post) to show that poor fundamentals are central to explaining both when runs occur and when they have severe economic effects. We argue that this evidence tempers the view that small shocks can have outsized real effects through self-fulfilling run dynamics.

• Postal Banking Has Died with Zero Customers in Years   Cato Institute

  The United States Postal Service has finally laid the postal banking pilot program to rest. However, it’s unlikely anyone noticed. The program didn’t have a single customer from April 2022 to September 2025.

• Why are the “Underbanked” paying more for financial services?      Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

  Why are people with less income paying more for financial services?  It’s a question we at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston ask all the time about the “underbanked.” The underbanked (as opposed to the “unbanked”) have an account of some kind with a financial institution – usually checking or savings. But they still use often expensive nonbank “alternative financial services,” or AFS. One example is payday loans, which are high-interest loans usually due the day of the borrower’s next paycheck. Another popular AFS is retail bill pay, when people go to a retail outlet like a supermarket or pharmacy to pay utility, credit card, and other bills for a fee. The underbanked tend to have lower income levels and an incentive to pay less. So, what’s steering them toward more expensive financial products? We know some of the answers. In a survey we conducted with the nonprofit Commonwealth, AFS users cited speed, trust, and confirmation that their funds were sent or received as their top reasons for using those services.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week

US-Iran Clashes Resume, Ukraine’s Allies Meet in Paris, Burnham to Be Formally Named the UK’s Next Prime Minister, and Warsh Delivers His First Economic Report to Congress

July 12 - 19, 2026

Iran will continue to dominate the geopolitical and economic headlines this week following the collapse of the ceasefire. The trigger for the collapse was Iran’s attack on multiple commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, ostensibly because the ships failed to pay tolls to Iran. Since then, the US has carried out multiple waves of attacks on Iranian military targets. However, President Trump said he would agree to further talks with Iran despite the ceasefire's collapse. But as of this writing, there is no clear path to renewing further talks.

Meanwhile, President Trump is scheduled to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaida Tuesday at the White House. This is al-Zaida’s first foreign trip since being elected Prime Minister in May, and may prove helpful in furthering efforts with Iran. The focus of the meeting will be to secure new investment deals – including new oil deals – and finalize efforts to get Iraq to move to disarm Iran-aligned armed groups operating in Iraq.

In Europe, two important events are taking place. First, Andy Burnham will likely become the UK’s latest prime minister, replacing Keir Starmer. Burnham has secured close to 80% of the Labor Party’s support, and barring a last-minute entry in the race to become Prime Minister (the deadline for entry is this week), Burnham will be set to take over during Parliament’s summer recess.

The second important event is a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing on Ukraine” in Paris. Ukrainian President Zelensky, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and more than 25-plus heads of state will gather. While the meeting is unlikely to produce any big new financial or military commitments, it will be seen further building on momentum reaffirmed at the recent G7 summit in Évian, France and the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey where allies committed €70 billion in military aid to Kyiv for 2026 (and President Trump granted Ukraine permission to build Patriot missiles – a significant new show of support from the US). Macron has said he’ll use the gathering to unveil new defense initiatives and joint military exercises, with the agenda also covering Russia’s shadow fleet, new military capabilities for Ukraine, and deeper operational cooperation among Kyiv’s backers.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, inflation will be the focus of policymakers and markets this week.

The big event for markets will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress this week, presenting the Fed’s semiannual monetary report. Warsh is sure to be peppered with questions about inflation by nervous members of Congress facing tough elections in November.

In addition, there are no officially confirmed reports that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be in Washington Monday and Tuesday to meet with Warsh (Monday) and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (Tuesday). It has been suggested that the meetings will focus on closer policy coordination on inflation as the Iran War drags on.

In the US this week, we will see the June CPI report on Tuesday, just before Warsh’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. Then the June PPI will be released on Wednesday, just before Warsh’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. The final inflation report of the week will be the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey on Friday. Other major reports out this week will be the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, retail sales on Thursday, and industrial production on Friday.

Also, this coming week kicks off earnings season, with five of the largest US investment banks – JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Citigroup – all reporting.

In Canada, the Reserve Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday to set interest rates, with markets expecting a hold. Also on Wednesday, we will see MLS home sales figures and trade figures. And on Thursday, new housing starts are reported.

In Asia, the Bank of Korea decides on rates on Thursday. China releases its Q2 GDP figures and retail sales on Wednesday. And in Japan, we will see industrial production numbers on Tuesday.

And in Europe, the European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of its next rates meeting in two weeks. The Eurozone industrial production numbers are out on Wednesday, and Friday brings the Eurozone’s June CPI.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN will hold an informal meeting in Bangkok, Thailand with Myanmar’s foreign minister to explore Myanmar’s potential rehabilitation in the bloc. This is the first direct contact between ASEAN and Myanmar in five years.

· Today is Independence Day for the island nation of Kiribati.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 13, 2026

Global

· OPEC releases its Monthly Oil Market Report.

· The UN’s High-Level Political Forum 2026 will continue until 15 July, under the auspices of the Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC). The three-day ministerial segment of the forum will take place through July 15th.

· The International Finance and Banking Society holds its annual conference in London. Through July 15th.

· The International Seabed Authority convenes in Kingston, Jamaica, to negotiate rules for deep-sea mining. The meetings run through July 24th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi travels to Washington, D.C. for meetings with President Trump. This first international trip since taking office in May. Among the issues the two leaders will discuss is a fund where Iraq deposits 500,000 barrels of oil/day in exchange for boosted electricity supply, negotiations with Chevron on the West Qurna-2 and Nasiriyah oil fields, and resumed operations for HKN, Western Zagros, and Hunt with security guarantees. But this is a delicate meeting for al-Zaidi as he seeks to deepen the US economic/security partnership while preserving Iraq’s relationship with Iran.

· The US Congress returns from a two-week recess.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak virtually at the Bank Policy Institute’s Roundtable.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give an economic update at the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) in New York.

· USA Monthly Budget Statement (June)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (June)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (May)

· Brazil Business Confidence (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research, the Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund host a conference on global interconnections and financial stability in Hong Kong.

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (June) /Services NZ PSI (June)

· India Inflation Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing on Ukraine held in Paris, France. French President Emmanual Macron will host Ukrainian President Zelensky, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President António Costa along with 25-plus heads of state. This meeting builds on momentum reaffirmed at the recent G7 summit in Évian and the NATO summit in Ankara, where allies committed €70 billion in military aid to Kyiv for 2026. Macron has said he’ll use the gathering to unveil new defense initiatives and joint military exercises, with the agenda also covering Russia’s shadow fleet, new military capabilities for Ukraine, and deeper operational cooperation among Kyiv’s backers.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Foreign Affairs Ministers will discuss the Ukraine War with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha giving an update. They will also discuss the situation in the Middle East, get an update following the launch of the Black Sea strategic approach, the status of EU-UN relations, and on the margins participate in the EU-Gulf Cooperation Council High-Level Forum

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the Irish EU presidency work program, livestock strategy and protein plan, women in agriculture, and trade related agricultural issues.

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide in Oslo, Norway.

· Romanian President Nicusor Dan will hold consultations with pro-Western parliamentary parties on forming a new ruling coalition.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde meets with Federal Reserve Board ChairKevin Warsh in Washington, D.C.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives keynote remarks and participates in a panel discussion at the Annual Economic Reception of the Deputy Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia in Münster, Germany.

· BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the International Finance and Banking Society conference in London.

· Romania Inflation Rate (June)

· Turkey Current Account (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (June)

· Germany Current Account (May)

· Russia Balance of Trade (May)

· Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

· UK BoE Pill Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan .Inflation Rate (June)

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on Maintenance of international peace and security. Soon after, the Security Council is schedules to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· (TBD) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Christine Lagarde in Washington, D.C. Lagarde reportedly wants to discuss the economic impact of the War with Iran and inflation coordination.

· The 2026 Aspen Security Forum begins in Aspen, Colorado and runs through July 17th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress before the House Financial Services Committee.

· The Federal Reserve Board hosts its annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C. He will later participate in a fireside chat on the issue of artificial intelligence and financial inclusion.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech entitled “Consumers, AI, and Financial Inclusion: Balancing Opportunities and Challenges” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a pre-recorded video speech entitled “Responsible Innovation and Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board Annual Financial Inclusion Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before hybrid Kenosha Area Business Alliance Business Lunch event in Chicago, Illinois.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (June)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ CPI s.a (June)/ Redbook (July/11)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (July/10)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (June)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JP Morgan, Ericson

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Kazakhstan, Roscosmos Soyuz MS-29 spacecraft launch, carrying Nasa astronaut Anil Menon and Roscosmos cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anna Kikina to the International Space Station.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2/ Visitor Arrivals (May)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (July)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (July)/ AB Business Confidence (June)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (June)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (May)/Industrial Production (May)

· India WPI Food Index (June)/ WPI Fuel (June)/ WPI Inflation (June)/ WPI Manufacturing (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers responsible for European Affairs will discuss the Ireland’s EU presidential priorities, the state of play and future orientation of simplification, and an evaluation of the annual rule of law dialogue.

· The 3rd Accession Conference with Ukraine will take place in Brussels.

· The 28th Accession Conference with Montenegro will take place in Brussels.

· The 3rd Accession Conference with the Republic of Moldova will take place in Brussels.

· The 9th Accession Conference with Albania will take pace in Brussels.

· France celebrates Bastille Day with its traditional military parade on the Champs-Élysées in Paris, attended by President Emmanuel Macron.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey deliver speeches at the City of London Corporation’s Financial and Professional Services Dinner (the Mansion House speech) in London.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Financial Policy Committee members appear in a Treasury Committee hearing on the Financial Stability Report.

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (June)

· Ireland Construction PMI (June)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (June)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

· Hungary Construction Output (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Poland Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

· EARNINGS: The Watches of Switzerland, BP

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (May)/ Mining Production (May)

Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Attorney-General nominee Todd Blanche appears before the Senate Judiciary Committee at the start of a two-day confirmation hearing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh gives the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent chairs a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council to discuss geopolitical risks, AI and financial stability.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives an economic outlook at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams gives a keynote speech and participates in a conversation organized by the Partnership for New York City.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Board President Alberto Musalem gives the Homer Jones Memorial Lecture in St. Louis, Missouri.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/10)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/10)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/10)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/10)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/10)/ PPI (June)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)/ PPI (June)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (June)/ / EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/10)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Report and Press Conference/Canada Capacity Utilization (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)/ Wholesale Sales (May)/

· Columbia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: Morgan Stanley, United Airlines, ASML, Progressive, BlackRock, Conagra, Johnson & Johnson, PNC, M&T Bank, Cintas, J.B. Hunt

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import/Export Prices (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (June)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)/ Machinery Orders (May)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Tertiary Industry Index (May)

· China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ New Yuan Loans (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (June)/ Total Social Financing (June)

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: Rio Tinto

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be in an informal meeting of EU Justice and Home Affairs Ministers in Brussels through July 17th.

· The UK-India Free Trade Agreement goes into effect.

· he EU and UK provisionally apply their post-Brexit border deal to the British territory.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Fabio Panetta speaks at the Italian Banking Association’s annual meeting in Rome.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks on a panel at the International Finance and Banking Society Conference.

· Bank of England executive director for prudential policy, David Bailey, speaks at the International Finance and Banking Society conference, hosted at Bayes Business School in London.

· Romania Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (May)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (May)/Residential Property Prices (May)

· Serbia Building Permits (May)

· EARNINGS: Handelsbanken

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel and Lebanon may hold the next round of direct negotiations in Rome, Italy, through July 16th.

· Turkey observes Democracy and National Unity Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon Industrial Production (May)

· Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

· Israel Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 16, 2026

Global

· The International Energy Agency releases its Global Critical Minerals Outlook Report.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host a meeting with senior ministers from around the world on the “resurgence of transnational far-left terrorism.” In Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Navigating Economic Shocks” at Stanford University.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in moderated question-and-answer session sharing insights about her leadership role at the Federal Reserve, her experiences as a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee and her perspectives on the evolving economic landscape in a Fed Listening Tour event in Houston, Texas.

· Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid participates in the Grand Island Economic Forum in Grand Island, Nebraska.

· Brazil Retail Sales (May)

· Canada Housing Starts (June)

· USA Retail Sales (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/11)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Retail Sales Control Group (June)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/11)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (July)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (July)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July)/ Philly Fed Employment (July)/ Philly Fed New Orders (July)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Business Inventories (May)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/10)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/16)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/16)/Fed Balance Sheet (July/15)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (May)

· Columbia Consumer Confidence (June)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (June)

· EARNINGS: Alcoa, Netflix, Cohen & Steers, First National Bank, Prologis, Citizen, State Street, Abbot, GE Aerospace, US Bancorp, United Health Group

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nikkei Asia Forum APAC 2026 will take place in Bangkok, bringing together political and business leaders from across the region to discuss topics including energy, mobility and AI. Speakers include Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Sony Group Executive Chairman Kenichiro Yoshida and Thammasak Sethaudom, president and CEO of Thailand’s Siam Cement Group..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July)/11

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

· China FDI (YTD) (June)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Services PMI (June)

· EARNINGS: TSMC, Wipro

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, BHP workers at Port Hedland are set to stage an eight-hour strike after negotiations over pay and working conditions failed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of the July 22-23 rate-setting meeting.

· Kazakhstan GDP (June)

· UK GDP (May)/ GDP 3-Month Avg (May)/ Goods Trade Balance (May)/ Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Construction Output (May)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (June)

· Hungary Gross Wage (May)

· Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Turkey Budget Balance (June)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Belarus Industrial Production (June)

· EARNINGS: ABB, BHP, Crest Nicholson, Frasers, Publicis Groupe, SSE,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Oman Inflation Rate (June)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Friday, July 17, 2026

Global

· The World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance is held in Shanghai, China. The meeting will showcase China’s advances in AI as its low-cost models gain traction globally. The conference comes on the heels of a United Nations meeting in Geneva on AI governance, which highlighted the contrasting attitudes of the U.S. and China.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (July)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)

· Canada FIB Business Barometer (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (May)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (May)

· USA Building Permits (June)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Import Prices (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (July)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/17)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/17)

· EARNINGS: Regions, Truist, Autoliv, Travelers, Sandvik, Fifth Third Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in South Korea, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (June)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (June)/ Non-Oil Exports (June)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong Business Confidence Q3/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/10)/ M3 Money Supply (June/30)

· EARNINGS: JSW Steel

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK’s Labour Party will declare Andy Burnham its new leader if he remains the sole candidate for prime minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a lecture on the digital euro during the annual Federcasse assembly in Rome, Italy.

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/Current Account (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/10)/ Auto Production (June)/ Auto Sales (June)

· Euro Area Current Account (May)/ Current Account s.a (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Serbia Current Account (May)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)

· Belarus GDP (June)

· EARNINGS: Volvo, Burberry, Telia, Skanska

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (June)

Saturday, July 18, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Uruguay.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· EARNINGS: HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank (India)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Global

· The World Cup Championship is played in New Jersey.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Economic Community of West African States will hold the bloc’s 69th Ordinary Summit of heads of state and government in Sierra Leone.

· São Tomé and Principe hold presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· July 23: The 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum takes place in Manila, the Philippines.

· July 28: Keiko Fujimori is inaugurated President of Peru.

· August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election are held. All members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Russia’s Growing Economic Problems, How the Iran War is Changing the Middle East, What Happens When Trust in Economic Statistics Declines, And the Memo That Killed the Penny

July 10 - 12, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them both interesting and useful. Have a great weekend.

The Ukraine War and Russia’s Growing Troubles

• Endgame: The State of the Russian Economy  The Kiel Institute for the World Economy

  The contours of a genuine economic endgame are coming into view for Russia. The economy has not collapsed, but the structural foundations have eroded fast. Economic growth has come to a standstill, and fiscal buffers are largely exhausted. Higher oil prices as a result of the war in the gulf will likely only bring temporary fiscal effects, as Ukrainian “drone sanctions” have been effective in reducing export volumes. Russia’s current macro stance is not sustainable. High interest rates are stifling the economy, while loose fiscal policy and quasi-fiscal operations are propping up the defense sector. The Q1 2026 budget deficit exceeded the full-year target in just three months. The choice now is between fiscal consolidation or monetary accommodation resulting in even higher inflation. Going forward, export revenues from the sale of raw materials remain the decisive variable for the economic outlook: With fiscal buffers spent, Russia’s war capacity is more than ever directly coupled to hydrocarbon export income.

• Putin’s economy is running on fumes after Ukrainian attacks  Politico EU

  For four years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has largely managed to shield the population from the economic consequences of his war in Ukraine. No more. The Ukrainian missile and drone strikes on key energy infrastructure in recent weeks has turned the war from a relatively minor irritant that most Russians could ignore into an immediate and increasingly acute fuel crisis. Two-thirds of Russia’s 83 regions are now reporting problems with fuel supply, an immediate inconvenience to millions and an equally immediate threat to the viability of many businesses. As far as hard numbers go, the scale of the damage is being disguised, with Russia adding domestic fuel prices to the list of economic data that it no longer publishes. Plenty of Russians, however, are finding out for themselves just how bad things are. Social media are exploding with footage of drivers attacking each other over gasoline at filling stations, or even rampaging in trucks through queues of cars waiting to fill up. It’s gotten to the stage where the nation that the late Sen. John McCain derided as “a gas station masquerading as a country” isn’t even a gas station any more: Reuters reported on Wednesday that India — the biggest foreign buyer of Russian crude oil — will now export some of what it refines back to its country of origin.

• Russia’s Losing Hand in the South Caucasus  Center for European Analysis

  Russia sought to influence Armenia’s recent parliamentary elections and derail the re-election of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s re-election – and failed. Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to reassert influence over the South Caucasus nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan but has increasingly been stymied. The Armenian election and the defeat of pro-Putin candidates pushed the Kremlin to work harder to rekindle its relationship with Azerbaijan as it seeks to reassert itself in the region. But Russia has also been increasingly frustrated by both Azerbaijan’s and Armenia’s ties with President Donald Trump’s administration, particularly over critically important transport infrastructure. And now, Russia is facing a significant loss of influence in its “near abroad.”

• The War In Ukraine Is Already Over — And Putin Lost  James Jay Carafano/1945.com

  National security expert James Jay Carafano argues that although the fighting grinds on, the war in Ukraine is strategically over — and Putin has lost. Russia has passed its culminating point, he writes, leaving three realities Moscow cannot change: an independent, well-armed Ukraine, an intact NATO, and a homeland now permanently vulnerable to deep strikes.

The Iran War and How It is Changing the Middle East

• Syria deal gives Trump potential route to bypass Hormuz  The Telegraph

  Last Thursday, on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Turkey, President Trump met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The meeting came as the US announced it would remove Syria from the list of sanctioned state sponsors of terrorism – on top of lifting sanctions last year. And in return, al-Sharaa gave President Trump – and Gulf States – a potential solution to loosening Tehran’s chokehold on shipping oil and gas via the Strait of Hormuz. Syria’s strategic location – with a large stretch of Mediterranean coastline and a land mass connected to oil-rich Middle Eastern nations – makes it easy to connect to global trade. Options include trucking or moving energy supplies through dedicated pipelines to coastal ports where goods can be loaded on to commercial vessels bound for Europe and further afield. Using this route would allow countries to bypass maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the leverage that Iran holds by attacking commercial vessels in transit. Pipeline projects are already under consideration, and could link major energy producers in the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, directly to Syria’s ports in Baniyas and Latakia.

• Iran is Losing Iraq  Kamaran Palani/Foreign Affairs

  Whenever the Iran war comes to an end, the Islamic Republic is likely to emerge in a stronger position. But at least in one area, the war has left Iran notably weaker: Iraq. Ever since the toppling of the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran has been able to exercise a great deal of influence over its western neighbor. It has embedded itself within Iraq’s Shiite political establishment, mediating between rival factions, shaping successive governments, and using Iraq to gain hard cash through smuggling and currency exchange networks. Iran supported many of the Iraqi paramilitary groups that helped defeat the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, in 2017. Iraqis still grew to resent Iran’s overweening influence in their country, not least because of the involvement of Iranian-backed militias in a brutal crackdown on anticorruption protesters in 2019 and 2020.Now, the tumult of recent months has further tilted Iraqis against Iran’s desire to make their country a staging ground of resistance to the United States and Israel. Leaders of political parties and militia groups that once hewed close to Tehran are pulling away.

• Going Over the Brink: How Hizballah’s Risk Strategy Made Lebanon Impossible to Ignore  Kelly Grieco, George Saade, and Hunter Slingbaum, War on the Rocks

  When the United States and Iran announced their framework agreement on June 15, attention focused on the direct U.S.-Iran dimensions of the deal, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the U.S. naval blockade, and the fate of Iran’s nuclear program. But the agreement also included a commitment to the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Washington had spent months treating Lebanon as a separate issue in negotiations, even as the Israel-Hizballah conflict remained active under a nominal ceasefire in place since April 16. That Lebanon ended up inside the agreement was not an accident. Newly compiled data on 1,155 Hizballah attacks between April 15 and June 14 — 540 drone strikes and 615 rocket, missile, and artillery incidents – and this points to the reason Lebanon was included: Iran via Hezbollah ran a deliberate, calibrated pressure campaign designed to keep the southern front permanently on the edge of escalation to a wider war. By raising the costs of continued fighting and increasing the risk of a broader regional crisis, Hizballah gave Tehran leverage to insist that negotiations could not proceed while Israel’s offensive in Lebanon continued. That linkage, in turn, forced Washington to lean on Israel to de-escalate and ultimately accept Lebanon’s inclusion in the final agreement. But that agreement did not resolve Lebanon. Worse, it institutionalized the conflict as a source of Iranian leverage, giving Tehran another means of extracting concessions from Washington. The United States is now trapped managing a conflict it cannot leave without jeopardizing the broader deal it seeks to conclude.

Geoeconomics, Statistics, and Pennies

• ·US Monetary Spillovers, Foreign Exchange, and Gold Reserves at Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation  Joshua Aizenman, Jamel Saadaoui, Gazi Salah Uddin and Naoki Yago National Bureau of Economic Research

  This paper shows that US monetary policy surprises exert significant spillover effects on exchange rate through dollar liquidity and capital flow channels. Using high-frequency exchange rate data and detailed currency composition of reserves for 18 countries, we show that estimated reserve-buffer effects depend on their composition. Dollar-denominated reserves substantially mitigate depreciation pressures, while non-dollar reserves have smaller estimated effects. Gold reserves are also associated with smaller exchange-rate responses, though less strongly than liquid FX holdings due to differences in immediacy and usability. Our results highlight an empirical complementarity between reserve holdings and access to international liquidity facilities such as central bank swap and repo lines. These arrangements are associated with a smaller role for reserve depletion during periods of dollar funding stress. Aggregate reserve size alone does not capture all dimensions associated with external resilience; currency composition and access to dollar liquidity facilities are empirically relevant for exchange-rate responses to US monetary shocks. These findings are consistent with recent large-scale purchases and sales of gold reserves by emerging economies amid sanctions-related restrictions and geopolitical concerns about access to dollar liquidity.
  

• When Trust in Official Statistics Declines  Michael Strain, VoxEU/CEPR

  Trust in official economic statistics has become an increasingly salient policy issue, including in the US, where the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. This column shows that the events produced a sharp increase in economic policy uncertainty, with existing estimates linking uncertainty to macroeconomic outcomes, implying that the resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. While some economic activity postponed during periods of uncertainty may eventually occur later, there are reasons to believe that at least part of the effect could be lasting.

• ·The Memo That Killed the Penny  Bloomberg

  Previously undisclosed documents obtained by Bloomberg’s FOIA Files reveal how the Trump administration found a way to halt penny production and why officials considered the decision “critical. It was actually Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (now defunct) that called attention to the skyrocketing costs of producing the penny — a day after Trump was sworn into office. It wasn’t the first time the practicality of the lowly coin was debated. A half-century ago, Treasury Secretary William Simon wrote in a memorandum to President Gerald Ford: “Concerning the one-cent coin, we are rapidly approaching the decision point for continuance or elimination.” In 2013, President Barack Obama seemed to be open to the idea of discontinuing the minting of pennies. Simon and Obama both cited the increased costs to taxpayers to produce the coins and the fact that people were using them with less frequency. They also noted that discontinuing the production of the penny would require an act of Congress, whose coinage power is spelled out in the Constitution.

• AI, Immigration, and Collapsing Labor Force Participation  Applied Complexity

  Overall Labor Force Participation (LFP) is at a 50-year low. As fewer adults work or seek work, a larger fraction of voters experience the economy mostly as consumers, retirees, or rentiers, not as workers. That changes political incentives around wages, immigration, AI, taxation, and redistribution. The economy becomes increasingly dependent on a shrinking core. A shrinking group of workers generates the income, taxes, and innovation that support a growing number of non-workers. The economy becomes more fragile because labor shocks are concentrated among fewer participants. Capital must increasingly substitute for labor. Labor scarcity raises the return on automation, AI, robotics, and software. The AI bet becomes as much about compensating for workers’ absence as simple replacement. Growth increasingly depends on productivity, not participation. Any [productivity] miss will be much more consequential than in the past, given that labor no longer picks up the slack.

The Global Week Ahead

July 5 - 12, 2026

Turkey Hosts the NATO Summit, Iran Buries the Ayatollah as Talks Sputter Along, Trump Calls Putin To Spark New Ukraine War Peace Talks,  and a Quiet Economic Data Week as Central Banks Reprice Inflation

The dominant geopolitical event this week will be the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month stated the meeting “is probably one of the most important in NATO’s history.” A key focus of the meeting is how NATO members intend to meet the 5% of GDP defense spending target by 2035. Each country is expected to table a concrete national plan, while several countries are expected to hit the 5% goal well before 2035; others are struggling to find a way.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has explicitly promised “tens of billions of dollars” in new defense contracts will be announced at the Summit, alongside a Transatlantic NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge and Defense Production Action Plan targeting shortfalls in ammunition, air/missile defense, and long-range weapons.

Running concurrently with the Summit will be the NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum, which will stress an “industrial revolution” taking place in the defense industry, focused on drone warfare, critical raw materials (and the building of a NATO supply-chain framework in parallel with US and other allied commercial critical mineral security efforts.

But the real subtext of the Summit will be the tensions and fractures that emerged in the alliance when President Trump launched the Iran War. Whether leaders can paper over internal splits will be the summit’s critical challenge. Recall that at the beginning of the war, France criticized the US decision to strike Iran and pain refused US basing for the operations. President Trump criticized other NATO members for not “doing their fair share” in helping in the war. All of this comes in the wake of reports this past week that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth presented a plan to substantially reduce US military forces in Europe (but was blocked and forced to conduct a force posture review over the coming six months instead).

The Ukraine War and efforts to get peace talks back on track will also be on the agenda. President Trump called Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 4th, during which they spoke for 90 minutes. Trump then called Ukrainian President Volodymyr to discuss ways to get the peace talks back on track. Trump is now expected to meet with Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO Summit. However, there are reports that the US is now pressing Ukraine to cede the Donbas to Russia as an incentive to secure a peace deal.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran peace talks have been paused as Iran continues carrying out its six-day funeral procession for slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (which concludes July 9th). The event is seen by the Iranian government as a means to rally national unity and sympathy abroad. This coming week, his body will be transported to Iraq, where it will pass through Shia holy sites before returning to Iran for burial on Thursday. Representatives from more than 100 countries have traveled to Iran to participate in the ceremony.

Also this week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Indonesia, New Zealand, and Australia for bilateral meetings covering mutual security, trade, and investment. While in New Zealand, Modi is expected to discuss advancing a free trade agreement. India and Australia concluded a free trade deal in February.

Modi’s trip comes as China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, travels to Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway to improve trade and investment opportunities. China works closely with Denmark on shipbuilding and is now seeking a deal with Finland on shipbuilding, green energy, and infrastructure.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar, it will be a light week for major economic reports. Markets are awaiting minutes from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank from their respective June meetings.

In the US, the June ISM services index is out on Monday. IN Europe, the Bank of England publishes its financial stability report on Tuesday. Germany’s factory orders report is out Monday, industrial production on Tuesday, and trade balance on Thursday.

In Asia, China’s June inflation figures – both CPI and PPI – are out on Thursday. And in Japan, the Economy Watchers Survey is out on Wednesday, and the PPI on Friday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Global

· The OPEC+ meeting will be held virtually. The group is expected to agree to another 411,000 b/d crude quota increase for August at the meeting, as it capitalizes on seasonal demand to bring barrels back to market.

· The UN will host the inaugural session of the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance in Geneva, Switzerland through July 7th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The CARICOM Heads of Government Meeting takes place in Saint Lucia.

· Venezuela celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when in 1811 Spanish rule was thrown off.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will meet with Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Ankara in advance of the NATO Summit.

· Valiant Shield, a joint-military exercise of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, takes place in Guam.

· Japan’s Shiga province holds gubernatorial elections. While considered a minor election, it is closely watched as an indicator of the strength of the ruling LDP Party.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia celebrates Independence Day.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Employment and Social Affairs Ministers through July 6th in Ballina, County Mayo, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The funeral process for slain Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continues this week through July 9th. The six-day funeral now moves from Tehran, Iran across the border to the Shia holy sites in Iraq: Qom, Najaf, Karbala, and Mashhad. The procession then returns to Mashad, Iran for the burial.

· Algeria celebrates Independence Day. More than 30 countries have sent representatives to the funeral process including China, Pakistan, and, surprisingly, a delegation from Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 6, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate and House of Representatives are out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates on a policy panel at the

Closing Conference of the European System of Central Banks Research Network on Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World, Rome, Italy.

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (April)

· USA NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services Business Activity (June)/ ISM Services Employment (June)/ ISM Services New Orders (June)/ ISM Services Prices (June)

· Canada S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations

· Brazil Balance of Trade (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Columbia PPI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The second impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte gets underway, threatening her vow to run in the 2028 presidential election. A previous attempt at impeachment was blocked by the Supreme Court due to a technicality.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Indonesia through Wednesday, followed by trips to Australia and New Zealand through Saturday. Modi is due to hold talks with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, with critical minerals set to be high on the agenda, and address members of the Indian diaspora in Jakarta.

· The Asia-Pacific Digital Economy Forum will be held in Hong Kong through July 7th.

· The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Forum is held in Japan through July 10th.

· Today is Capital City Day in Kazakhstan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (June)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (June)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (June)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (June)

· Tawain Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store in Oslo, Norway. Wang will also travel on to meet with the foreign ministers of Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.

· Paris Haute Couture Week begins, with leading fashion houses unveiling their fall/winter couture collections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 15th anniversary event of Financi’Elles in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at the Closing Conference of the ESCB Research Network on Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World (ChaMP) in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane was scheduled to give a dinner speech – which will now be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, Deputy Director General Economics - at Closing Conference of the ESCB Research Network on Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World (ChaMP) in Rome, Italy.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will participate panel at the Royal Economic Society 2026 conference ‘Trusted, accessible and connected? The future of UK economic data’ in London.

· Germany Factory Orders ((May))/ S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

· Romania Retail Sales ((May))

· Hungary Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (May)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (June)

· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ PPI (May)

· France S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

· UK New Car Sales (June)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

· Serbia PPI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Comoros National Day, a national holiday.

· Today is Heroes’ Day in Zambia, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Global

· The 2026 NATO Summit begins in Ankara, Turkey and runs through Wednesday. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called “probably one of the most important” in the organization’s history. Apart from its 32 members, Ukraine will attend along with four of NATO’s Indo-Pacific partner states -- Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand as well as Middle East partners Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

· Running alongside the NATO Summit will be the NATO-sponsored Defense industry Forum. The Forum is the premier high-level event on transatlantic defence production, investment and innovation. The Forum brings together senior NATO, Allied and partner officials, industry leaders, and the communities responsible for driving forward industry and innovation to discuss its most pressing issues. This year, the Forum will focus on Allied progress towards reaching NATO’s historic 5% defense investment plan, and on how this money is being put into action to generate increased defense production, cooperation and joint procurement, all in the service of generating stronger industrial deterrence for the Alliance.

· The UN’s High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development begins in New York.

· The UN Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from representatives of the International Criminal Court on Sudan.

· The 5th The fifth United Nations Chiefs of Police Summit (UNCOPS 2026) will take place at United Nations Headquarters in New York through July 8th.

· The OECD Employment Outlook is released.

· The UN Trade and Development World Investment Report is released.

· The International Energy Agency’s Quarterly Gas Market Report is Released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer holds a hearing on proposed measures related to forced-labor import enforcement. The hearing is in advance of implementation of Section 301 tariffs on countries by the US. Click HERE for the full agenda. Countries being examined include: Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Peru, Jordan, India, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Allen & Company’s annual tech conference in Sun Valley, Idaho begins. Among the expected attendings are Apple CEO Tim Cook, Amazon Chair Jeff Bezos, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Others also expected to attend include Paramount CEO David Ellison, the Murdochs, and Bob Iger.

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Redbook (July/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (July/03)

· Mexico Auto Exports (June)/ Auto Production (June)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/Ivey PMI s.a (June)

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· Brazil Car Production (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (June)

· Columbia Inflation Rate (June)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: MSC Industrial Direct, Enerpac Tool Group

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the Solomon Islands, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (May)/ Average Cash Earnings (May)/ Overtime Pay (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Tawain Inflation Rate (June)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The French Court of Appeal will rule on Marine Le Pen’s challenge to a ban on running for public office, imposed after her conviction over the misuse of European Parliament funds.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyden will attend the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey. She will also deliver a speech at the plenary session of the NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum, together with the Secretary-General of NATO, Mark Rutte.

· The Running of the Bulls takes place in Pamplona, Spain.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of England publishes their Financial Stability Report – July 2026 and Financial Policy Committee Record – July 2026. A press conference following publication of the FSR will be held in the Bank and can be watched virtually.

· The UK’s Office of Budget Responsibility releases its Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report 2026.

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine Mann will participate on a panel at the Royal Economic Society 2026 conference ‘The challenges and opportunities of leadership in economics and the wider economy” in London.

·

· Germany Industrial Production (May)

· UK Halifax House Price Index (June)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (June)

· France Current Account (May)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· UK BBA Mortgage Rate (June)/ BoE Financial Stability Report

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Saba Saba Day in Tanzania, a national holiday marking the unification of the country .

· Zambia celebrates Unity Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ S&P Global PMI (June)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Global

· The IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update is released.

· The UN Security Council is expected to hold an open debate on Women and peace and Security [CRSV]: Honoring the promise of international law to survivors of conflict-related sexual violence

· The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (June) is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Saudi Arabia through July 10th . It is the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister to the kingdom in 26 years. Carney will meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the agenda includes bilateral cooperation on energy, critical minerals, infrastructure, and defense.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the June FMOC meeting.

· Costco releases its closely watched June sales results.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/03)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/03)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/03)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/03)/ Used Car Prices (June)/ Wholesale Inventories (May)/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/03)/ Consumer Credit Change (May)

· Brazil Retail Sales (May)

· Chile Inflation Rate (June)

· Columbia Exports (May)

· Argentina Industrial Production (May)

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Peru Balance of Trade (May)

· EARNINGS: Levi Strauss

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Asia Development Bank publishes the latest edition of its outlook for the region, which will be the first one capturing the economic fallout of the Iran War on the region.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Australian Conference of Economists in Canberra.

· Italian bank UniCredit will announce the results of its extended offer to buy Germany’s Commerzbank’s shares.

· South Korea Current Account (May)

· Japan Current Account (May)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (June)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (June)

· Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/07)/Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (June)/

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President von der Leyen, together with President of the European Council António Costa, will have a working dinner hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (May)

· Greece Balance of Trade (May)

· UK Conventional Gilt

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Argentina, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in keynote moderated discussion before “The Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning” Workshop hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Dallas Federal Reserve Board President Lorie Logan will also speak as well as Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden.

· Mexico Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/04)/ Fed Williams Speech/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ Existing Home Sales (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/03)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/09)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/09)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/08)

· El Salvador PPI (June)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: PepsiCo, Progressive, Cintas, Washington Federal, Cogeco Cable, Richelieu Hardware, Arizia

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The island nation of Palau celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (June)

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/04)

· China Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (May)

· Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Tawain Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· EARNINGS: Tata Consultancy Services (IN), Fast Retailing (JPN), Seven & I (JPN)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels ahead of the EU Economic and Financial Affair Council meeting tomorrow. Ministers will discuss fiscal policy coordination, the international role of the Euro, and the Eurogroup work program.

· The UK’s Labour Party leadership nominations open following Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in June announcing his intention to resign.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank publishes an account of their June monetary policy meeting.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor will be part of a panel at the New York Fed and Chicago Booth School of Business conference on monetary policy implementation and market functioning ‘The future of clearing and settlement’ in New York.

· UK RICS House Price Balance (June)

· Hungary Budget Balance (June)

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Slovakia Industrial Production (May)

· Greece Harmonized Inflation Rate June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/03)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (June)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (June)

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (May)

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, July 10, 2026

Global

· The International Energy Agency’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaid may meet with President Trump in Washington (TDB). The purpose of the meeting is to strengthen economic and trade ties.

· Today is Independence Day in the Bahamas, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Inflation Rate (June)

· Mexico Industrial Production (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Full Time Employment Chg (June)/ Part Time Employment Chg (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Wages (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/10)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/10)

· EARNINGS: Delta Airlines, Hyatt Hotels

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (May)

· Japan PPI (June)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (June)/ Car Sales (June)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· India Bank Loan Growth (June/26)/ Deposit Growth (June/26) Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/03)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss market integration and supervision package, the Irish presidency work program for the next six months, they will vote to adopt a decision and make a recommendation under the excessive deficit procedure, and to endorse a revised medium-term fiscal structural plan. The will also discuss the impact of the Ukraine War and Iran War and adopt implementing decisions approving modified recovery and resilience plans, submitted by member states.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central bank Board Vice President Boris Vujčić participates on a panel discussion entitled “The Global Economy in 2026 and Beyond – Financing Europe and Greece’s Future” at the 30th Annual Economist Roundtable in Athens, Greece.

· Germany Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Romania Balance of Trade (May)

· France Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia Construction Output (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Turkey Industrial Production (May)

· Italy Industrial Production (May)

· Greece Industrial Production (May)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (June)

· Russia Inflation Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: MJ Gleason (UK)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 11, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Malaysia’s State of Johor, voters head to the polls on Saturday to elect all 56 members of the state assembly, with 172 candidates contesting what is shaping up to be Malaysia’s most closely watched election this year. While the outcome will determine the next state government, not affecting the current federal government, the result will also be seen as a key barometer of support for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government and could influence whether the ruling coalition seeks an early general election ahead of a February 2028 deadline.

· Mongolia celebrate the Naadam Holiday commemorating the country’s independence and featuring archery, horseracing and wrestling contests.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan PPI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day for the island nation of Kiribati.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· July 14 – 17: The 2026 Aspen Security Forum in Aspen, Colorado.

· July 23: The 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum takes place in Manila, the Philippines.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

· September (exact dates TBD): The BRICS Summit in New Delphi, India.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election are held. All members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: COP31 will be held in Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

The Global Week Ahead

The US and Iran Negotiations Suspended as Fighting Resumes, Japan’s Prime Minister Goes to India, the First Tri-Lateral USMC Negotiations Begin, and Central Bankers Gather in Portugal

June 28 - July 5, 2026

The Iran War appears to be back on as US and Iranian military action escalated in the last two days following Iran’s attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. US Forces conducted strikes against Iranian missile, drone, and radar facilities following an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, shattering the Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 18th.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded to the US attack with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. The IRGC has now threatened to halt “all ongoing diplomatic processes,” hardening Tehran’s posture and likely seeking to recalibrate its negotiating leverage. Technical negotiations were expected to begin this week in Luzerne, Switzerland, after last week’s signing of a memorandum of understanding, but appear to have been canceled.

Additionally, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will exercise sole management and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz for the next 30 days before allowing full traffic to resume. What happens next is anyone’s guess, as Oman and Qatar are trying to de-escalate the fighting and get the negotiations back on track. We see Iran’s strike on the ship as strangely self-defeating, as Iran was beginning to benefit from the US lifting sanctions on Iran’s selling and shipping oil.

All this comes as Israel and Lebanon implement a new framework agreement (along with the US) establishing the Military Coordination Group for Lebanon (MCG4L). The framework requires the Israeli Defense Forces to make a partial pullback from “pilot zones” in Lebanon - sequenced Israeli withdrawals linked to the Lebanese Army deploying in their place, along with Hezbollah disarming.

However, Hezbollah has rejected the deal as “null and void. They have already begun blocking streets in southern Beirut with burning tires. We are watching to see if the Israeli pilot zone withdrawals trigger Hezbollah military responses and attacks on Israeli forces and Israel itself. Additionally, there is concern over whether the Lebanese Army deployment will proceed on schedule.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is making an important trip to India this week to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the 16th annual leaders’ summit. Takaichi is seeking to build stronger cooperation between the two countries on a host of economic security issues, including critical mineral and energy supplies. Perhaps more importantly, Takaichi is seeking to strengthen defense cooperation between the two nations to deter potential Chinese threats to key shipping straits critical to both India and Japan.

Closer to home, the US, Mexico, and Canada will meet virtually on July 1st for the first time to conduct a trilateral meeting on the USMCA. Without an agreement, the USMCA would go into annual reviews. This is the first mandatory joint review under USMCA’s sunset/review provision—a mechanism without precedent in prior U.S. trade agreements. A successful joint review is critical in order to shore up confidence in the agreement and the broader trilateral economic relationship. will use the session to establish working groups and timelines for deeper negotiations through the end of 2026.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be listening carefully to the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal. This will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s first public event internationally and second overall public appearance.

In the US, labor market data will be the main focus of markets this week. The May JOLTS report is out Tuesday, the June ADP on Wednesday, and the US federal jobs report on Thursday. Also out this week is the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index and the ISM manufacturing index.

In Asia this week, China reports June PMIs on Tuesday and Japan releases May retail sales on Monday and industrial production on Tuesday.

And in Europe this week, the Eurozone’s CPI flash estimate is out on Tuesday (the headline indicator most watched by the ECB for monetary policy decisions), and the June manufacturing PMIs are out on Wednesday. Germany, France, and Italy release CPI data on Tuesday. The UK publishes its bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys on Thursday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, June 28, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The great comic genius Mel Brooks turns 100 years old. And he has a new movie coming out in 2027: Spaceballs: the New One

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA Fed Barkin Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· New Caledonia holds parliamentary elections.

· Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, will hold a gubernatorial election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)

· Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s Parliamentary Summit is held in Istanbul, Turkey.

· Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

· The United Russia Party held its annual convention. President Vladimir Putin wished the party good luck in the election, calling the electoral process a test of strength for the political system. During the congress, party leader Dmitry Medvedev proposed including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin in the federal top five candidates. Also happening today, the Rodina party’s election convention took place, at which the party list was approved, comprising 15 people headed by Aleksey Zhuravlyov, as well as candidates for single-mandate constituencies.

· Likely incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is scheduled to give a major economic speech in Manchester outlining his agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

The new Israel-Lebanon Framework Deal which was signed on June 26th goes into effect. The deal is aimed at paving the way for an eventual peace deal between the two long-time Middle East adversaries. The agreement includes a pilot effort in which Lebanese soldiers take control of some small areas currently held by Israeli troops, as well as a process aimed at disarming the Hezbollah terror group. However, Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire deal, saying it calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon as a precondition. The implementation of the framework is beginning this week with initial IDF withdrawals from pilot zones north and south of the Litani River.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 29, 2026

Global

· The United Nations 4th Counter-Terrorism Week takes place in New York through July 2nd. ministers and heads of national counter-terrorism agencies, as well as regional organizations, United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Coordination Compact entities, civil society organizations, victims of terrorism, women- and youth-led organizations, academia and the private sector.

· In Bangkok, Thailand, the 7th Global Conference on Climate and SDG Synergies will take place from 29-30 June. The event is co-organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in partnership with the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

· The International Energy Agency holds its 11th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency in Montreal, Canada through June 30th.

· The UN Security Council will meet to discuss the situation in the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court is expected to issue the final decisions of its term on cases including whether President Donald Trump can restrict birthright citizenship and whether he can oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Decisions on Monday and potentially another day this week.

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is set to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. They will discuss the situation in the Middle East and prep for the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey July 7th.

· The US Senate is out of session for a two-week break. The US House of Representatives is in session until Thursday and out of session the following week.

· The 2026 Mercosur Presidential Summit and associated meetings of the Common Market Council will be held in Asunción, Paraguay through July 30th. The summit focuses on advancing the bloc’s external trade agenda and follows the historic signing of the sweeping EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement in January. The main focus will be on the internal distribution of export quotas from the historic EU-Mercosur trade agreement. According to recent statements from Uruguay’s Foreign Minister Mario Lubetkin, quota distribution among member states will dominate much of the debate. The EU trade deal entered provisional force on May 1, 2026, after more than 25 years of negotiations, with tariff reductions covering 95% of Mercosur products and 91% of EU products.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Bank Lending (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ IGP-M Inflation (June)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

· Argentina Economic Activity ABR

· EARNINGS: AeroVironment

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea’s presidential office will announce three “megaprojects” expected to involve massive investment in a new semiconductor production cluster in the country’s southwest. Local media have reported that Samsung Group will be a major investor, as the tech giant seeks to expand production to ride the chip boom.

· The Japanese Diet will begin considering legislation that would create a second capital. The legislation was introduced by Japan’s ruling LDP and Japan Innovation Party. The aim is to have a capital that would back up Tokyo’s core functions during disasters or emergencies and decentralize power. The bill supports JIP’s Osaka-focused restructuring agenda, while a separate proposal would cut 45 proportional representation seats if lawmakers fail to agree on reductions within a year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Retail Sales (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/Construction Orders (May)

· Tawain Consumer Confidence (June)

· Malaysia PPI (May)

· India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)

· Australia RBA Kent Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao visits Brussels through June 30th for high-level talks with EU officials on China-EU trade relations, market access, and ongoing tariff disputes.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Luxembourg.Ministers will discuss cyber violence against girls, housing and demographics, and fair labor mobility.

· The Athens Defense Conference begins and runs through June 30.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 begins in Sintra, Portugal and runs through July 1st. The event brings together both central banker from around the world and will be the first time new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak publicly (Wednesday). For a full list of attendees, click HERE. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will open the event with a welcoming speech.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill: Panel at Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan monetary policy dialogue in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (May)/ Loans to Households (May)/M3 Money Supply (May)/ Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)/Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (June)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (May)/ Mortgage Approvals (May)/ Mortgage Lending (May)/ M4 Money Supply (May)/ Net Lending to Individuals (May)/ BoE Pill Speech

· Greece Total Credit (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Global

· US and Iran technical negotiations are scheduled to resume in Lucerne, Switzerland. However, the meetings may be cancelled due to renewed military strikes by Iran and the US.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Election primaries are scheduled to be held in Colorado and Arkansas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ PPI (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

· Canada GDP (April)/ GDP (May)

· Costa Rica Current Account Q1

· Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· USA S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/House Price Index (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ Chicago PMI (June)/ JOLTs Job Openings (May)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (May)/ Redbook (June/27)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat (June)/ API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (June/26)

· Columbia Business Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

· Paraguay Current Account Q1

· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

· EARNINGS: Nike, Constellation Brands, Progress Software

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (June)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ PPI (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2

· Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes released/Australia Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/NBS General PMI (June)

· Thailand Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption (May)/ Private Investment (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)

· India Government Budget Value (May)/ External Debt Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets her Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Baku.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (June)/ Current Account Q1/Nationwide Housing Prices (June)/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/

· Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/Unemployed Persons (June)/ Unemployment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (June)/Bavaria CPI (June)/ Brandenburg CPI (June)/ Hesse CPI (June)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (June)/ Saxony CPI (June)/Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (May)/ PPI (May)

· Spain Current Account (April)

· France Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Household Consumption (May)/ PPI (May)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

· Turkey Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Imports/Exports (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Italy PPI (May)

· Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Ukraine Current Account (May)

· EARNINGS: Collins Foods, Sainsbury’s

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Gaza Board of Peace meets in Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon Industrial Production (April)

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Congo, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Global

· The Democratic Republic of Congo assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

· The OECD hosts the Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum in Paris, Francie through July 2nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the official deadline for the US, Mexico and Canada to decide whether to extend the USMCA trade agreement for another 16 years (and which will not be met as negotiations are ongoing). However, trade representatives from all three countries will hold their first trilateral talks, and the deal will enter into a cycle of yearly reviews until an agreement is reached.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will undertake an official visit to Canada through July 4.

· Today is Canada Day, commemorating the anniversary of the Constitution Act of 1867. Financial markets and banks are closed.

· St. Lucia assumes the chairmanship of CARICOM (Caribbean Community).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh takes part in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal.

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (June)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (June/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/26)/ ADP Employment Change (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (June)/ Construction Spending (May)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (June)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (June/26)

· Mexico Business Confidence (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (May)/ Current Account Q1

· Peru Inflation Rate (June)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

· Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speech

· EARNINGS: Constellation Brands, General Mills, FactSet Research Systems, MSC Industrial Direct, UniFirst, National Beverage, Greenbrier Companies

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will make her first visit to India since taking office last year. The trip comes as Japanese businesses increase their investments in India, and more than 50 companies, including Suzuki Motor, Itochu and Toyota Tsusho, will accompany the prime minister. he two looking to deepen economic and security ties with China in mind. Takaichi was initially set to visit the northeastern state of Assam, but now she will only visit New Delhi due to time constraints.

· Hong Kong observes the Special Administrative Region Establishment day, marking the day I 1997 when the UK transferred power over Hong Kong to China.

· Today is the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.

· The Japanese government will cut passport application fees for its citizens by up to half. Meanwhile, it will raise visa issuance fees for foreign visitors for the first time in about 50 years. Fees for single-entry visas will increase from 3,000 yen ($18) to 15,000 yen, and for multiple-entry visas, from 6,000 yen to 30,000 yen. The departure tax, applied to both Japanese and foreign nationals, will also be raised from 1,000 yen to 3,000 yen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (June)/ Ai Group Construction Index (June)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (June)/ Commodity Prices (June)

· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q2/ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q2/ Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q2/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Bank Lending (May)

· Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ireland takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union until the end of the year.

· The European Commission is scheduled to present “Defense Single Market: EU Technological Basi Fit for Future” – the strategic plan creating a foundation for a unified defense market. The plan is expected to remove fragmented barriers, mitigate external supply-chain dependencies, and boost cross-border industrial cooperation across member states.

· The European Parliament’s Industry, Research and Energy Committee will vote on a proposal to accelerate permit-granting procedures for energy infrastructure projects, such as transmission and distribution grids, and storage and recharging stations, as well as renewable energy projects. The aim is to help lower electricity prices and help the EU transition towards a more sustainable and decarbonized energy system.

· The European Parliament publishes the latest edition of Eurobarometer. The survey covers EU citizens’ feelings about the future and their expectations of the EU, as well as a range of issues, including: the role of the EU in the current global context and in protecting Europeans; key citizen priorities and values; and how citizens view the European Parliament, the EU and EU membership

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (May)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Inflation Rate Flash (June)/ CPI Flash (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking/ ECB Vujčić Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

· Russia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ Corporate Profits (April)/ Real Wage Growth (April)/ Retail Sales (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Bank Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Burundi celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Ghana celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q2/ Budget Balance (May)/ABSA Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (June)

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· France and its G7 partners will convene a regional security conference in Martinique in July 2026, marking a major step forward in international coordination. The conference will assemble nations from across the Caribbean and G7 partners to establish a maritime task force and step up the fight against drug trafficking and transnational crime.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· U.S. Bond Markets will close early in advance of the Independence Day holiday.

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks in moderated discussion at Banco de España conference Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, Santander, Spain.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/27)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Average Weekly Hours (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/20)/ Government Payrolls (June)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (June/27)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (June)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (June)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (June)/ Factory Orders (May)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/26)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/02)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/02)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/03)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/03)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/01)/ Total Vehicle Sales (June)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

· EARNNGS: Levi’s, Lindsay

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (May)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (June)

· Japan Monetary Base/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/27)

· Australia Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

· Thailand Business Confidence (June)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (May)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Court of Justice is expected to rule on Alphabet unit Google’s fight against a record fine levied by EU antitrust regulators eight years ago for using its Android mobile operating system to block rivals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give an introductory statement at the ECON hearing of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a speech and participate in a panel discussion “The Role of Central Banks in the Fight Against Climate Change: Current State and Outlook” at 7th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists (WCERE) in Lisbon, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a discussion followed by a moderated discussion at Generali Executive Series in Milan, Italy.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann participates in a fireside chat at the Natixis CIB Conference on Private Debt in London.

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (June)

· Spain New Car Sales (June)/ Bonos y Obligaciones Auction

· Italy New Car Registrations (June)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Romania PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (June)

· France Budget Balance (May)

· Spain Unemployment Change (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/26)

· EARNINGS: Baltic Classifieds Group, Currys, FastPartner

· Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria holds national assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (June)

Friday, July 3, 2026

Global

· World FAO Food Price Index (June)

· The United Nations is closed today for an official holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (June)

· Columbia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)

· Australia S&P Global Composite PMI (June)

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Japan S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (June)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (June)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Belarus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion with António Costa at 26th Les Rencontres Économiques d’Aix-en-Provence 2026 “Navigating a World of Uncertainty” in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on a panel at Les Rencontres Economiques Conference entitled ‘Fiscal and monetary policy: An impossible coordination?’ in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (June)

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

· France New Car Registrations (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)

· Russia GDP (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)

· Spain Industrial Production (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (May)/

· UK DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (June)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran will hold the official funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamani in Tehran. He was killed by Israeli airstrikes at the beginning of the Iran War. His body will lie in state at the Iman Khomeini Prayer Hall at the Grand Mosalla in Tehran through July 5th. On July 6th, there will be a public funeral procession through the streets of Tehran. Then his body will be transferred to the holy city of Qom on July 7th. On July 8th, there will be a transnational symbolic procession in the Iraqi holy cities of Najaf and Karbala. His body will then be transferred on July 9th back to Iran for burial at the Iman Reza Shrine in Mashad.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (April)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (June)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence and the establishment of the United States of America.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Republic Day in the Philippines, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Slovakia holds a referendum on whether to cancel life payments for leaders after their terms expire.

· The 33rd Annual Session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly will take place from 4 to 8 July 2026 at the World Forum Convention Center in The Hague, Netherlands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Liberation Day in Rwanda, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Global

· The OPEC+ meeting will be held virtually. The group is expected to agree to another 411,000 b/d crude quota increase for August at the meeting, as it capitalizes on seasonal demand to bring barrels back to market.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The CARICOM Heads of Government Meeting takes place in Saint Lucia.

· Venezuela celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when in 1811 Spanish rule was thrown off.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Valiant Shield, a joint-military exercise of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, takes place in Guam.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· July 7 – 8: The NATO Summit will be held in Ankara, Turkey.

· July 23: The 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum takes place in Manila, the Philippines.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.