The Global Week Ahead

Written By Francis Kelly

Talks To Reopen the Strait of Hormuz Continue, Senior Chinese Officials Gather for Domestic Policy Talks, A New Defense Alliance Forms in the Middle East, and Markets Focus on Inflation Reports

August 9 - 16, 2026

It will be a relatively quiet week ahead geopolitically.  Most major capitals are quiet as political leaders and parliaments are out for the August holidays.  The one major issue that will continue to keep markets focused is the negotiations between Iran and Oman to establish a temporary framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.   But Iranian leaders made clear this past weekend that for the Strait to reopen, the US must commit to a series of concessions.

For now, the US is not directly part of the talks with Oman and Iran.  Those talks are focused on creating a system whereby Iran and Oman would control the entry and exit points for commercial shipping. Iran is reportedly demanding a return to the June 17th Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US, which would give Iran the opportunity to see economic sanctions lifted, ending the naval blockade, and eventually seeing Iran’s frozen assets released.  But Iran also wants the US to give Iran compensation for damages caused by the war so far.

 But tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are not the only major news coming out of the Middle East.  Last week, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a joint mutual defense agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.  The pact was created out of a joint sense of concern over how the US-Iran War has impacted their respective economies.  While the announcement did not give specifics of what each country was committing or how the pact would develop, it is considered a major move by the three countries for the region. And it will be interesting to see how – if at all – ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi shipping and oil facilities might trigger assistance from Turkey and Pakistan.

 Elsewhere, senior Chinese leaders are gathered in Beidaihe (a popular beach resort area on China’s Bohai Sea) for two weeks of discussions on domestic political and economic priorities and concerns – including chronic challenges with the Chinese property market crisis, youth unemployment, industrial overcapacity, and low household consumption. 

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is a fairly quiet week for economic reports.  The big focus will be on inflation reports, the biggest being the US’ July CPI report out on Wednesday.  Other major releases this week in the US include the University of Michigan Consumer Survey on Friday as well as the July retail report.

In Europe, the UK sees Q2 GDP figures released on Thursday.  And in Asia, China releases inflation data on Sunday, and Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Survey on Monday.  The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday on interest rates, and the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from its July meeting on Monday.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 9, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Singapore, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Monday, August 10, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The American Meteorological Society publishes The State of the Climate in 2025, its annual peer-reviewed report on global warming.

·       Ecuador celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       The US Congress is out of session until early September.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: NuSkin, GoPro, Barrick, Embraer

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions from the last meeting.  Japan’s Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (June)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (June)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

·       Greece Industrial Production (June)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

 

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Global

·       The UN Global Compact Forward Faster Now | APAC Conference 2026  begins in Colombo, Sri Lanka and runs through August 12th.  The conference brings together political and business leaders to discuss sustainability issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       South Carolina holds a primary vote to pick contenders for the Senate seat formerly held by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who died last month.  Other primary elections are being held in the states of Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook (August/08)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stock Change (August/07)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       México Industrial Production (June)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam’s President To Lam travels to Australia and New Zealand. Talks expected to focus on deepening economic and strategic ties. Building on the Vietnam-Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership established in 2024, the trip is expected to prioritize cooperation in science and technology, innovation, digital transformation and resilient supply chains, while also advancing collaboration in energy, infrastructure, food security, trade, investment and education. Bilateral trade between Vietnam and Australia reached $8.1 billion in the first half of 2026, up nearly 22% from a year earlier.

·       Japan celebrates Mountain Day, a national holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates.  A press conference follows the meeting.

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (July)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       A Swiss parliamentary committee is expected to make its first recommendation on proposed tougher capital rules for UBS.

·       Hungarian legislators meet to appoint a new candidate to the figurehead post of president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (July)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (July)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (June)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (June)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (June)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (June)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Chad celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Unemployed Persons Q2/ Manufacturing Production (June)

 

 

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Global

·       A total solar eclipse visible in Greenland, Iceland, Portugal, Russia and Spain. Partial in most European countries, parts of Canada and northern Africa.

·       OPEC publishes its monthly oil market report.

·       The International Energy Administration publishes its monthly oil market report.

·       The US Agriculture Department releases its monthly WASDE report on world crops production.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/07)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (August/07)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/07/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/07)/MBA Purchase Index (August/07)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ CPI s.a (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/07)/ WASDE Report/Monthly Budget Statement (July)

·       Canada Building Permits (June)

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (June)

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Cook Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Singapore Current Account Q2/GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       China Vehicle Sales (July)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

·       India Inflation Rate (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)/31

·       EARNINGS: Tokio Marine, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Tencent, Tui Group, Foxconn

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Norway’s sovereign wealth fund – the world’s largest – publishes its half-year reporting for 2026 and its updated list of total holdings

·       Germany Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (July)/ Current Account (June)

·       Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordon Inflation Rate (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (July)/ SACCI Business Confidence (June)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

 

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Austin, Texas, the Democratic National Committee holds its summer meeting.  The DNC is expected to vote on the party’s 2028 presidential nominating calendar and a decision on which state will hold the first Democratic primary contest in that election cycle are expected.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at a Greenville Chamber of Commerce event in Greenville, South Carolina.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack participates in a moderated question-and-answer session as part of the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce’s Government Affairs Breakfast Series in Kettering, Ohio.

·       Brazil Retail Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       USA PPI (July)/  PPI (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/08)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/01)/ PPI (July)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/08)/ PPI (July)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (July)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (July)/ PPI (July)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/07)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/13)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/12)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ PPI (July)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent participates in a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker interview in Sydney.

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (May)

·       New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q2

·       EARNINGS: Hong Kong MTR, CK Hutchison

 

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, the Clacton parliamentary by-election in England, triggered by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s decision to quit as an MP and recontest the seat.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       UK RICS House Price Balance (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP (June)/ Business Investment   Q2/ GDP 3-Month Avg (June)/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (June)/ Industrial Production  (June)/ Manufacturing Production /(June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ Construction Orders  Q2/ Construction Output (June)/ GDP  (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)

·       Romania Industrial Production (June)

·       Hungary Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)/Current Account (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/07)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (June)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambia holds presidential elections.  Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema is expected to win a second term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

·       South Africa Gold Production (June)/Mining Production (June)

 

Friday, August 14, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Capacity Utilization (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (June)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

·       USA Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales Control Group (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/ Autos (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August)/ Business Inventories  (June)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations  (August)/ Michigan Current Conditions (August)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations  (August)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (June)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/14)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/14)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

·       EARNINGS: Pershing Square

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is set to deliver the annual State of the Nation Address ahead of the country's Independence Day on Aug. 17th. Prabowo will also present the government's macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal policy framework for the proposed 2027 state budget. The address is expected to outline policy priorities in his administration's third year and set out major targets, including projected economic growth and government spending.

·       Australia’s Parliamentary Joint Committee on Corporations and Financial Services holds a hearing on ethics and professional accountability at KPMG Australia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives evidence to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics.

·       South Korea Import/Export Prices (July)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ Visitor Arrivals (June)

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/08)

·       Australia Home Loans Q2/Investment Lending for Homes Q2

·       China New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)/Current Account Q2

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (June) 

·       Tawain GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/Current Account Q2/ GDP (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/07)

·       EARNINGS: JD.com, Hua Hong, China Mobil, Insurance Australia Group, Pan American Silver, Tata Motors, SMIC

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)/ Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

·       Romania Current Account (June)

·       Serbia Building Permits (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (July)

·       Russia Current Account Q2

·       EARNINGS:  Adyen, Antofagasta, Maersk, Orsted, PKO Bank Polski, Savills, Standard Bank Thyssenkrupp, Transurban

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordon Industrial Production (June)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (July)

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

  

Saturday, August 15, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In New Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivers a speech to mark the anniversary of the country’s independence from British rule in 1947.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Car Sales (July)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Liechtenstein celebrates National Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

 

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s 2026 election campaign season formally begins (the elections are in October).

·       Today is Restoration Day in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Durban, South Africa, the 46th Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

  

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

·       September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

·       September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

  • October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

  • October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

  • October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

  • October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.  There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

  • October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
    November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held.  All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

  • November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

  • November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

  • December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

  • December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Francis Kelly
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