Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 1/13/26 Francis Kelly 1/13/26

The Cost of the Jay Powell Investigation

January 13, 2026

Following yesterday’s shock report the U.S. Justice Department has launched a criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell over renovations of the Fed’s headquarters, we see several important results that could be of concern to markets:

The Trump administration has, to date, been quite effective ensuring few leaks. That changed yesterday as news story after news story cited administration sources directly naming Federal Housing Finance Agency Director William Pulte as the primary instigator of the investigation and detailing meetings Pulte had with President Trump about it. For the president, the leaked stories directly contradict his denials of having known anything about the effort to bring the case against Powell. And in one case, it revealed how Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Trump not to pursue the case as it would create a “mess” and be bad for financial markets.
Pulte, who is broadly seen in Washington as highly volatile and hard to work with, was known to have a number of enemies within the Trump administration, but it is clear now that number is much larger than anyone knew (We note that Bessent is one of them following reports of Pulte trashing Bessent to Trump and encouraging him to fire Bessent – something that resulted in a physical altercation between Pulte and Bessent this past fall).
Importantly, Pulte’s involvement in the Powell investigation goes to the future of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Pulte, as the overseer of the two giant mortgage entities, is effectively in charge of the privatization effort. Trump has said repeatedly over the last year that he wants to privatize them and is expected to again call for their privatization at the World Economic Forum in Davos next week. But as we have learned from administration officials, Pulte’s focus on doing political hit jobs of perceived opponents of the president (recall Pulte is responsible for the criminal referral of Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook and several Democratic members of Congress for alleged mortgage fraud) masks the fact that he has actually done very little preparatory work – a likely mammoth task that will require significant Congressional and financial market engagement. But the Powell investigation revelations has pushed Pulte’s already acidic relationship with congressional leaders to a new low.
Finally, news of the investigation has created a serious new split between Congressional Republicans and Trump. As the midterm elections come into focus, nervous Congressional Republicans are increasingly defying the president, having broken with Trump over the Epstein file release (a persistent and growing agitation point as the Justice Department continues to delay the release of the files despite legislation requiring their release by December 19th – less than 1 percent of the total remaining documents have been released), Trump telling House Republicans last week “You have to be a little flexible on [the] Hyde [Amendment]” in order to extend Obamacare subsidies – something appalled Republicans took as akin to Party heresy – and a number of other issues.

In short, the Powell investigation appears to have created a series of new dynamics in Washington for Trump, none of which are favorable, and represents another distraction to his agenda (Venezuela, defense spending, seeking limits on credit card rates, etc.), just as another government shutdown looms The expectation is the Powell investigation will end up petering out or failing in court. But the fallout is clearly much bigger.

Francis Kelly 1/11/26 Francis Kelly 1/11/26

The Global Week Ahead

US and Danish Officials Meet to Discuss the Future of Greenland, G7 Finance Ministers Meet On Critical Minerals, Iranian Protests Grow More Violent, and It is the Kick-Off of Earnings Season

It is going to be another intense week geopolitically, all with significant market implications. As markets intensely watch the situation in Venezuela, especially after the lukewarm response from major oil companies on Friday to President Trump’s plea for them to return to Venezuela.

President Trump is expected to meet with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado this week (the date has not yet been announced). Machado said she will give Trump her Nobel Peace Prize as a sign of her gratitude for the recent military action against Venezuelan strongman Nicholas Maduro.

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced he will meet with Danish officials and Greenland’s Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt in Greenland to discuss the US's interest in acquiring the autonomous territory. That meeting is expected to be on Tuesday or perhaps Wednesday. The meeting comes as President Trump says he is considering military action to take Greenland (something Rubio has told members of Congress will not happen).

Interestingly, a Cold War-era treaty signed in 1951 by the US and Denmark granted the US enormous latitude to massively increase its military presence in Greenland. We will be watching to see if this becomes the focal point of the Rubio-Motzfeldt meeting.

Meanwhile, in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is hosting a dinner for G7 finance ministers to discuss critical minerals. It shows the Trump Administration’s growing focus on ensuring a strong, secure supply chain for the US and its allies.

In Asia, several important events will take place. First, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carny is making a state visit to China to meet with President Xi Jinping. The meeting comes after years of growing tensions between the two nations (recall the Canadian arrest of the Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhu in 2018 and accusations of election meddling in 2024). Carney is expected to discuss ways to ramp up Canadian oil exports to China and to establish better trade terms between the two countries.

In Europe, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz will be traveling to India for trade talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And in France, all eyes are on court proceedings in Paris as opposition leader Marine Le Pen seeks to overturn her conviction for misuse of EU funds, which resulted in her being banned from running for public office for five years.

But perhaps the biggest event markets are watching globally this week is the ongoing and increasingly violent protests in Iran. The protests are the result of an increasingly brittle economy and are being held across the country. In a rare move, the government has called out the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to help suppress the protests – a move which has resulted in hundreds of civilians being killed and having the counter-effect of making the population angrier and more aggressive in the protests. President Trump has now repeatedly warned the Iranian leadership that the US will strike militarily if the government continues to attack protesters– something Israel has indicated they would join the US in doing.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, starting in the US, the big event in the US will be the December US CPI report on Tuesday – the last one ahead of the Federal Reserve's January 28 Open Market Committee meeting to decide interest rates. Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday and the PPI and retail sales figures on Wednesday.

In Europe this week, the data schedule is light. The UK GDP is out on Thursday.

In Asia, the big event is China’s trade figures on Wednesday, with expectations of a result showing slowing from 6 percent to 4 or 41/2 percent. Japan releases the Economy Watchers survey, PPI, and the December bank lending survey on Wednesday.

Finally, earnings season kicks off this week. We will be watching the US bank results closely as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock all report this week.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, January 11, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Myanmar holds the 2nd phase of its parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Benin holds parliamentary elections – the first since a coup attempt in December.

· Naval exercises led by China and expected to include vessels from South Africa, Iran, and Russia will be held off the coast of South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 12, 2026

Global

· The AIAA SciTech Forum 2026, a five-day aerospace R&D conference, begins in Orlando, Florida.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in Washington to discuss transatlantic relations.

· US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent is hosting a dinner in Washington, DC, of finance ministers from the G7 to discuss critical minerals.

· Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi will visit the United States through January 18.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before an MNI webinar.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion with the CEO of Intercontinental Exchange.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the North Carolina Bankers Association Economic Forecast Forum.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics event organized by the Council on Foreign Relations.

· USA Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn & Soy & Wheat (December)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is traveling to the United Arab Emirates for a working visit. He's expected to attend the signing of a landmark trade deal, marking Manila's first such pact with a Middle Eastern nation.

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will host South Korean President Lee Jae Myung for a summit in the ancient Japanese city of Nara. The talks will focus on economic and cultural cooperation and mark a continuation of diplomatic engagement by the historical rivals.

· Today is Coming of Age Day in Japan, a public holiday. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ Household Spending (November)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

· India Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is on a two-day visit, including a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Ahmedabad. The tour will take place in Bengaluru, where Merz will meet German companies.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Asuncion, Paraguay, to sign the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement.

· EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis participates in Critical Minerals Finance Ministerial dinner hosted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington, D.C.

· NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, will visit Zagreb, Croatia, where he will have bilateral meetings with the President, Zoran Milanović, the Prime Minister, Andrej Plenković, and the Speaker of Parliament, Gordan Jandroković.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey takes part in a meeting of the Bellagio Group 2026 at the Bank’s London headquarters, hosted by Clare Lombardelli, deputy governor, monetary policy.

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat during a presentation of the euro yearbook 2025 at Instituto Español de Analistas in Madrid, Spain.

· Romania Balance of Trade (November)

· Hungary Industrial Production (November)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (December)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Germany Current Account (November)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran is supposed to be hosting the International AI Fair in Tehran, but it has been cancelled due to internal national protests.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

· The World Health Organization (WHO) will launch two new reports calling for new taxes on sugary drinks and alcoholic beverages.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Greenland to meet with Danish officials over the issue of the US taking over Greenland.

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Beijing, the first visit by a Canadian premier since 2017, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and security.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the CFA Society, Washington, DC.

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem participates (again) in moderated discussion on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before an MNI webinar.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ Redbook (January/10)/ New Home Sales (September & October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/Monthly Budget Statement (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/09)

· Canada Building Permits (November)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

· El Salvador PPI (December)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (December)

· EARNINGS: Bank of New York Mellon, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan Chase

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (January)

· Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)

· China Vehicle Sales (December)

· India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In Paris, the Court of Appeal begins the appeal trial for French far-right leader Marine Le Pen over the misuse of EU funds.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)

· Ireland Construction PMI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (December)

· France Budget Balance (November)

· Slovakia Construction Output (November)

· Greece Inflation Rate (December)

· Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The World Future Energy Summit is set to begin in Abu Dhabi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Global

· The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

· The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the maintenance of international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· The UN’s International Labour Organization (ILO) will release its Employment and Social Trends 2026 report, offering new insights into the current state and future prospects of global labor markets.

· Today is New Year’s in the Orthodox faith.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue its next rulings on January 14 as several major cases remain pending, including the legality of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs. The decision was expected last Friday but now appears set for today.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia State of the Economy event.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech entitled “Regulations, the Supply Side, and Monetary Policy” at the Delphi Economic Forum Lecture, Athens, Greece.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in virtual town hall conversation hosted by the Wisconsin Bankers Association.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated discussion on the economy as part of the Atlanta Business Chronicle 2026 Economic Outlook event.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before “An Economy That Works for All: Financial Inclusion" event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/09)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/09)/ PPI (October & November)/ Current Account Q3/ Retail Sales Control Group (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Business Inventories (October)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/09)/Fed Beige Book

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

· EARNINGS: Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import Prices (December)/ Export Prices (December)

· New Zealand Building Permits (November)

· Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (December)/ Reuters Tankan Index (January)

· India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Oman.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Spain Investors Day 2026 in Madrid, Spain.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden gives a speech at Kings College London on “The Evolution of Resolution.”

· Alan Taylor, external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, will speak at the National University of Singapore. Meanwhile, deputy governor, markets and banking, Dave Ramsden will speak at King’s College London.

· Romania Inflation Rate (December)/ Current Account (November)

· Hungary Construction Output (November)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Great Britain BoE Taylor Speech/ BoE Ramsden Speech

· Poland Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

· Jordan Industrial Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Heads of State Meeting takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Global

· Today is the 25th anniversary of the launch of Wikipedia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

§ Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on a panel discussing stablecoins after the GENIUS Act at the Wharton Future of Finance Forum in Washington.

§ Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber Board of Directors meeting.

§ Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber Financial Forecast.

§ Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks on the economy and monetary policy.

· Brazil Retail Sales (November)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)

· USA Export Prices (November)/ Import Prices (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/03)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/15)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/14)/ Import Prices (October)/ Export Prices (October)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Balance of Trade (November)

· EARNINGS: BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/10)/ PPI (December)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/10)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (December)

· Kazakhstan GDP (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament’s Security and Defence Committee will take stock of the EU’s defense partnerships, including with the UK, Canada, Norway, South Korea, Japan, Moldova, Albania, North Macedonia, the US and Ukraine. It will adopt recommendations on how to align these relationships with the broader objectives of building a strong EU defense policy. MEPs are also expected to address relations with NATO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in an Exchange of Views on the outcomes of the ECB High-Level Task Force on Simplification at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Great Britian RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

· Romania Industrial Production (November)

· Hungary Industrial Production (November)

· France Inflation Rate (December)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

· Spain Inflation Rate (December)

· Turkey Budget Balance (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/09)

· Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

· Italy Industrial Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Poland Inflation Rate (December)

· Serbia Current Account (November)/ Building Permits (November)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

· Israel Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Uganda holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Friday, January 16, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A federal court hearing will be held for Tyler Robinson, charged with murder in the shooting death of Charlie Kirk.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Philip Jefferson speaks at the AIER Monetary Conference in Boca Raton, Florida.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech at the Outlook ’26 New England Economic Forum, Foxborough, Mass.

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)/ PPI (November)/ Business Confidence (January)

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)/ Housing Starts (December)

· USA NY Fed Services Activity Index (January)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/16)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)

· Earnings: M & T Bank, PNC Financial Services, Regions Financial, Reliance Industries, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A South Korean court will render its verdict on former President Yoon Suk Yeol on charges of obstruction of justice following his failed attempt to declare martial law in late 2024.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)/ Food Inflation (December)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/09)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Services PMI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is set to visit Japan and hold a summit with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for the first time. Meloni will then head to South Korea on Saturday for a meeting with President Lee Jae Myung, marking the first state visit to the country by an Italian leader in 19 years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate (December)

· Italy Inflation Rate (December)

· Poland Inflation Rate (December)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Belarus Industrial Production (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, January 17, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 18, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Qatar to meet with leaders to discuss bilateral investments.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Portugal holds its presidential election. he president is elected for a five-year term with a two-term limit, has the discretionary power to dissolve parliament and presides over the consultative Council of State.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 1/5/26 Francis Kelly 1/5/26

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Washington Shuffles Back to Work, the Trump Administration’s Deregulatory Agenda Revs Up, and Who Will Be the Next Fed Chair?

January 5 – 9, 2026

Happy New Year! We hope you had a great holiday. We did, but let’s all admit the truth: The Monday after New Year’s is always a tough one.

It is going to be a quiet week in Washington from the financial regulatory perspective. Congress gets back to work – the Senate on Monday and the House on Tuesday. But both chambers are taking it slow this week, and there are no relevant hearings or events in the financial services, agriculture, or tax space.

The only regulators with meetings scheduled this week are the SEC (a Closed Meeting) and the Farm Credit Administration (a board meeting), both on Thursday.

And there are no major speeches by any regulators this week – except for Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, who will speak virtually to the California Bankers Association’s 2026 Bank Presidents’ Seminar on banking regulation. Which brings up the question of the Trump Administration’s overall financial deregulatory agenda – when does it kick into high gear and what will it entail?

In many ways, looking back at 2025, we would argue it already is in high gear. A couple of quick examples: On the securities side of the ledger, we saw President Trump in September call for the end of quarterly reporting – something SEC Chair Paul Atkins made clear he intends to pursue. Then, in December, President Trump signed an executive order aimed at curbing proxy advisors' power, another major policy goal the SEC is going to quickly undertake.

On the banking side of the ledger, the Fed led an effort to cut capital requirements for large banks (which, according to S&P Global, led America’s six largest banks to add more than $600 billion in market value in 2025). Then the OCC announced its intent to raise the threshold for “heightened expectations” of supervision.

And now that the US Senate confirmed just before Christmas the two of the three final outstanding regulatory chairs – Michael Selig to be chair of the CFTC and Travis Hill to be chair of the FDIC – we suspect the deregulatory agenda might go into turbo-drive in 2026. But what exactly comes next seems to be a multibillion-dollar question.

All of which brings us to our final point of this week’s report: There is still one regulator who needs to be named by President Trump – the next Federal Reserve Board Chair.

From what the President has been saying, we should expect that announcement in the next two weeks. Betting markets are split between National Economic Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh (Kalshi has them at 43% and 38% odds, respectively, while PredictIt has it at 41¢ to 38¢, respectively). We still think Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in the mix (which would make him the Donerail of the Fed Chair Horse Race – Kalshi and PredictIt have Bessent at only 2%/2¢ odds of getting it). And if you don’t know who Donerail was, he was a horse who won the Kentucky Derby in 1913 at 91 – 1 odds.

Below is the full report on (very few) financial regulatory-related events we found this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Monday, January 5 – The Senate returns from holiday recess. But there are no relevant hearings scheduled for the coming week.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, January 6 – The House returns from holiday recess. But there are no relevant hearings scheduled for the coming week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Wednesday, January 7, 4:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the California Bankers Association Bank President’s 2026 Seminar (virtual).

· Friday, January 9, 9:00 a.m. – Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in a fireside chat before the virtual 2026 Regional Economic Conditions Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

· Friday, January 9, 9:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin gives an economic outlook speech to the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum in Baltimore, Maryland.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Nothing significant to report.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, January 8, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, January 8, 10:00 a.m. – the FCA Board holds its first meeting of 2026. The Agenda has yet to be released.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday, January 7, 9:00 a.m. (virtual) – SIFMA holds its Private Markets Roundtable on Liquidity and Transparency.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, January 7, 12:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society holds a webinar entitled “Regulation and Fair Access to Banking.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 1/4/26 Francis Kelly 1/4/26

The Global Week Ahead

Awaiting Next Steps in Venezuela, Iran Is Rocked By Protests, South Korea’s President Visits China, and Markets Get Back to Work In Advance of Several Major Data Releases

January 4 - 11, 2026

The quiet of the Christmas and New Year holidays ended abruptly this weekend with President Trump’s decision to take military action against Venezuela, snatching its dictator, Nicholas Maduro, and demanding the oil-rich nation comply with the US. There are more questions than answers at this point, but for markets, the biggest question is what happens to oil markets going forward. Venezuela is the most oil-rich nation in the world with an estimated 300 billion proven oil reserves waiting to be tapped. And it is also incredibly mineral-rich, ranging from gold to bauxite to iron ore. It appears much depends on how Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez responds to President Trump’s demands and how long the Venezuelan military is willing to stand (and can stand) in defense of the regime.

But our view is that what is happening in Venezuela is going to have much larger ramifications elsewhere in the Hemisphere, particularly in Cuba, which has played an outsized role in advising – and benefiting from - Maduro’s regime (as well as that of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez). Since President Trump began to ratchet up pressure on Venezuela, Cuba’s economy has begun to crumble. Venezuela’s 100,000 barrels of oil shipped to Cuba daily were effectively cut off, resulting in widespread blackouts in Cuba, loss of water supplies, and massive food shortages.

Meanwhile, another major oil-producing country is in trouble, too: Iran is experiencing a growing and increasingly violent national protest movement – the largest since 2022 – as the country’s economy plummets and hyper-inflation skyrockets. Iran’s currency lost 42 percent of its value in 2025 (1.3 million rials to the dollar – making it the worst-performing currency in the world) while official government figures show inflation exceeding 42 percent in December alone. All this comes as Tehran is experiencing the worst drought in half a century, resulting in rolling water cutoffs and weak tap pressure for the capital’s 10 million inhabitants, adding further pressure on the government.

In Asia this week, the big event is South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s visit to China. It marks the second time in two months that Lee will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is aimed at improving both diplomatic and commercial ties between the two nations. Additionally, Lee is expected to ask Xi to help broker better relations with North Korea. But it is unclear how successful Xi will be – North Korea conducted provocative ballistic missiles as President Lee was traveling to Beijing, a clear sign of North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un’s disapproval of Lee meeting with Xi.

In Europe this week, leaders of the “Coalition of the Willing” (EU, UK, Canada, and other nations supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia) will meet in Paris to finalize security commitments to Kyiv as part of efforts to secure a peace agreement with Russia. What we will be watching for are commitments from EU peacekeeping forces to serve in a possible buffer zone between Russian and Ukrainian forces, as well as pledges of military equipment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets are looking to the US jobs report on Friday with expectations that non-farm payrolls will rise by more than 50,000. Also this week, the ADP and JOLTS reports and the ISM Services report on Wednesday with the ISM Manufacturing report out on Monday. Plus, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey is out on Friday.

In Europe, the Eurozone CPIs are out this week. Germany’s and France’s CPIs are out on Tuesday, and the entire Eurozone on Wednesday. Germany releases factory orders on Thursday, industrial production figures on Friday, and its trade balance on Friday.

In Asia this week, China reports both CPI and PPI on Friday, while Japan releases wage data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, January 4, 2026

Global

· The chair of the BRICS rotates from Brazil to India for 2026.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA Fed Kashkari Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean President Lee Jae Myung begins a state visit to China that goes through January 7. It will be the second meeting between President Lee and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the last two months and comes as China-Japanese relations have sunk to a new low, offering South Korea new opportunities to expand trade relations with China.

· Ireland’s Prime Minister Michael Martin will visit China, the first such visit by an Irish Prime Minister since 2012.

· The 7th round of the Pakistan-China Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue takes place in Beijing. The discussions center on expanded trade and mutual security goals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 5, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on the US attack on Venezuela and arrest of Nicolas Maduro.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate reconvenes after the Christmas/New Year holidays.

· President Trump is expected to have a telephone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (December)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (December)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (December)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (December)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)

· China RatingDog Composite & Service PMI (December)

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Singapore Retail Sales (November)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The British Parliament returns from holiday break.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Turkey Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (November)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

· Spain Unemployment Change (December)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (November)/ Mortgage Approvals (November)/ Mortgage Lending (November)/ M4 Money Supply (November)/ Net Lending to Individuals (November)

· Serbia PPI (December)

· France New Car Registrations (December)

· Italy New Car Registrations (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyadh Bank PMI (December)

· Israel Interest Rate Decision; Israel’s Tel Aviv Stock Exchange shifts its trading days to a Monday-Friday schedule as it seeks to appeal to international investors

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)

Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representatives reconvenes after the Christmas/New Year holidays. It is also the 5th anniversary of the January 6th attack on the US Capitol.

· The Consumer Electronics Show takes place in Las Vegas through January 9 bringing together leaders from across the global technology landscape to unveil their latest releases.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak to the Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast 2026 in Raleigh, North Carolina.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)/Redbook (January/03)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/02)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Japan Monetary Base

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (December)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (November)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Direct Investment (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The national security advisors of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” will meet in Paris, France to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the state of play on peace negotiations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel at a conference entitled "The international monetary system and international payments. Recent trends and challenges ahead" organized by Banque de France and the Ministry of Economics, Finance, and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty in the context of the French G7 Presidency in Paris, France.

· Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (December)/ New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (December)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (December)

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (December)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (December)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (November)

· France Inflation Rate (December)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Italy S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ New Car Registrations (December)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (December)

· Israel Business Confidence (December)/Tourist Arrivals (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Global

· The Christian Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Economic Club of Canada holds its annual 2026 Economic Outlook Breakfast with the chief economists of RBC, TD Bank, CIBC, BMO, Scotiabank, and the National Bank.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the California Bankers Association Bank President’s 2026 Seminar (virtual).

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/26)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/02)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (December/26)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (January/02)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/26)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/02)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (December/26)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/02)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ ISM Services PMI (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ Factory Orders (October)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (October)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (December)/ ISM Services Business Activity (December)/ ISM Services Employment (December)/ ISM Services New Orders (December)/ ISM Services Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/02)

· Colombia Exports (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Inflation Rate (November)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (November)/ Building Permits (November)/ CPI (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (November)

· Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· India M3 Money Supply (December/26)/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 2026-25

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Cyprus assumes the rotating EU Presidency for the first half of 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Retail Sales (November)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployed Persons (December)/ Unemployment Change (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)

· Hungary PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· France Consumer Confidence (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Flash (December)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Thursday, January 8, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· California Governor Gavin Newsom delivers the State of the State address.

· The Canadian Club holds its 49th Annual Economic Outlook Lunch in Toronto.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chile Inflation Rate (December)

· Brazil Industrial Production (November)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/03)/ Used Car Prices (December)/ Wholesale Inventories (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/02)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/08)/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/07)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)

· Argentina Industrial Production (November)

· Colombia PPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan to hold meeting of regional branch managers and issue quarterly report.

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/27)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 1st EU-Jordan Summit takes place in Amman, Jordan. The Summit brings together EU and Jordanian leaders to discuss how to strengthen EU-Jordanian economic and security interests. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will attend,

· Norwegian Offshore Directorate to publish five-year outlook for the country’s oil and gas production and investments

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at Vocento's 2nd Edition of Next Spain Global in Madrid, Spain.

· Germany Factory Orders (November)

· Romania PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (December)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)/ SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (November)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (December)

· Hungary Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Manufacturing Production (November)

· Angola Inflation Rate (December)

Ghana Inflation Rate (December)

Friday, January 9, 2026

Global

· The BRICS+ members hold joint maritime drills off the coast of South Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual 2026 Regional Economic Conditions Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin gives an economic outlook speech to the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum in Baltimore, Maryland.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (December)

· Mexico Auto Exports (December)/ Auto Production (December)/ Industrial Production (November)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Wages (December)

· USA Building Permits (September and October)/ Housing Starts (September and October)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Government Payrolls (December)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (December)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (December)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (January)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (January/09)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (November)

· Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

· China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· India Bank Loan Growth (December/26)/ Deposit Growth (December/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/02)

· Indonesia Car Sales (December)

· Sri Lanka PPI (November)

· Kazakhstan PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech at the biennial conference on "The Danish Economy in a Changing World" organized by the Danish Economic Society in Kolding, Denmark.

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (November)

· Turkey Industrial Production (November)

· Hungary Retail Sales (November)

· France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· Spain Industrial Production (November)/ Business Confidence (December)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Italy Retail Sales (November)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (November)/ ECB Lane Speech

· Greece Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

· Ireland Industrial Production (November)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (December)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 10, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 11, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Benin holds parliamentary elections – the first since a coup attempt in December.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 1/2/26 Francis Kelly 1/2/26

Our Annual Christmas Book Recommendations

Our apologies - We are a little late with our annual list, but hopefully you will find our recommendations both interesting and fun!

Woodrow Wilson: The Light Withdrawn by Christopher Cox (Simon & Schuster, 640 pages, 2024)
Growing up, Woodrow Wilson was lionized in the classroom, held up as a paradigm of enlightened leadership and vision. As the former President of Princeton University and New Jersey Governor, he was the man who helped negotiate the Armistice of World War I, pushed for the League of Nations (which, while failing in that form, led to the establishment of the United Nations decades later), and established the Federal Reserve. What we were never taught was that he was also a determined southern racist who advanced Jim Crow laws while doing all he could to deny women the right to vote - but who then flipped at the last moment to support women’s right to vote in return for further advancing Jim Crow laws. Cox, a former Member of Congress and Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, has done an extraordinary amount of research in writing this book. I found it hard to put down.

Private Finance, Public Power: A History of Bank Supervision in America by Peter Conti-Brown and Sean Vanatta. (Princeton University Press, 424 pages, 2025)
On first blush, you may think this is not going to be the most scintillating of topics. But the authors bring to life the critical importance and historical impact of what keeps America’s finance machine running - or, at times, plays a role in crashing. Banks in America are private institutions with private shareholders, boards of directors, profit motives, customers, and competitors. And yet the public, Washington, and state policymakers play a key role in deciding which risks are taken, as well as how, when, and to what end. Conti-Brown and Vanatta examine how the US has managed financial risk and how it has evolved to become engaged in more social policy issues, such as monitoring racial discrimination, managing financial concentration, and, more recently and controversially, climate change. The book weaves in a large cast of historical characters who have played outsized roles in all of this, through the best of times, financial panics, and scandals.

I Deliver Parcels in Beijing by Hu Anyan, translated by Jack Hargreaves (Astra House, 336 pages, 2025)
A best-seller in China in 2023, Hu Anyan recounts his brutal, low-paying work as a parcel delivery worker with very little hope for a better life ahead. Straightforward and candid, Hu’s writing conveys the cultural shift in China where young people question the traditional work-for-success model and reflecting a society grappling with rapid economic change - more than hinting at the intense struggles inside China today as it grapples with internal political and economic challenges the West normally cannot see.

Mexico: A 500 Year History by Paul Gillingham (Atlantic Monthly Press, 752 pages, 2025)
Mexico has always been of special interest to me, and I have enjoyed reading about its history. When Gillingham came out with this mammoth new history - 752 pages - I was a bit intimidated and wondered if I would learn anything new. Happily, this is a brilliant, elegantly written book, and the author has done tremendous research. In short, I learned a lot. As the US begins a slow and likely arduous new round of trade negotiations with Mexico, it’s an essential contribution to understanding the enormous changes and upheaval Mexico has experienced over the last 500 years and why a lot of the changes still to come are going to be incredibly important not just there but to the US and the rest of the Western Hemisphere.

The French Revolution: A Political History by John Harman (Yale University Press, 384 pages, 2025)
We all know the basics of the French Revolution: Let them eat cake, uprisings in the streets, and off with their heads. But it was much more than that as this excellent history by John Hartman makes clear - and its ramifications are still being felt today in various ways. How and why did the ancien régime blow apart so fast and so violently? A great read.

1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History and How it Shattered a Nation by Andrew Ross Sorkin (Viking Press, 592 pages, 2025)
Sorkin’s history of the fateful stock market crash in 1929 is a fascinating and vivid read of how what was thought to be an unstoppable stock market spectacularly crashed, sending the US into a depression and forever changing the nation. Sorkin has done some fabulous research here, and in an age when we are debating crypto and AI bubbles, there are many lessons to be gleaned.

King of Kings: The Iranian Revolution: A Story of Hubris, Delusion and Catastrophic Miscalculation by Scott Anderson (Doubleday Press, 512 pages, 2025)
Scott Anderson (Doubleday, 512 pp., $35, Aug. 5)
President Trump’s recent bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities reminds us that the relationship between modern-day Iran and the US is a long and brutal one. Anderson takes readers back to when the troubles began in 1979, when the Shah of Iran was toppled. A great history and reminder of just how complicated and deadly the relationship has become and likely to remain for the foreseeable future.

Eclipsing the West: China, India and the Forging of a New World by Vince Cable (Manchester University Press, 352 pages, 2025)
Cable has an extensive and highly impressive career: Beginning as a development economist, chief economist at Royal Dutch Shell, member of the UK Parliament, Leader of the Liberal Democrat Party, and UK Minister for Business, Innovation, and Skills under Prime Minister David Cameron, and a minister in the UK coalition government under David Cameron. He writes a fascinating analysis of the increasingly tense relationship between the West and Asia, specifically China and India. Cable sees three possible future scenarios playing out: A democratic “Global West” confronting autocratic adversaries, led by a failing China, with India joining the democracies; or a multi-polar world, with a rising China and a rising India and no hegemon; or a multilateral world, with a reformed, but functional, postwar order and, again, no hegemon. Smartly written, it leaves the reader plenty to ponder about how all this will play out.

Francis Kelly 12/22/25 Francis Kelly 12/22/25

International Economy Magazine: EU Bonds - Is Europe Playing with Fire?

I was pleased and honored to be asked by International Economy Magazine to contribute to a feature on the European Union’s use of EU Bonds.

The topic reached a new plateau of discussion earlier this year when France’s Finance Minister Eric Lombard warned that his country might be forced to turn to the IMF for a bailout amid growing fiscal troubles and a dysfunctional government. Of course, bailing out advanced industrialized countries like France is not practical, considering the IMF’s overall resources.

But this also raised the question of whether European officials are considering an entirely new approach to fiscal/debt policy management and liquidity?

The first steps to this change in approach, some would argue, came earlier this year when Germany altered its constitution to remove its fiscal debt brake (debt not to exceed 60 percent of GDP). Many officials warned that this change could give the green light to other, financially less stable European countries that want to increase their already bloated budgets.

Taking it a step further in understanding what is potentially in play, other questions quickly arise, including:

Is the next step in this new policy the beginning of even more widespread use of EU bonds? The European Commission is pushing for further issuance of EU bonds in the name of the European Union. The volume of outstanding EU Bonds has already reached €650 billion. Yet, from a legal standpoint, EU bonds do not fall within the category of government bonds, principally because the European Union is not permitted to incur its own debt and has only limited scope to raise its own revenues. The EU member states bear responsibility jointly and severally, meaning one or more member states can be held responsible for the amount of a bond issue if other, financially weaker members cannot meet their obligations.
What could be the consequences of these controversial changes? Will these moves enhance the liquidity of European financial markets, which could be particularly useful at a time when European governments are rearming militarily? Note that the European high command also hopes to “professionalize” Europe’s capital markets by having Eurex Futures launch EU-Bond futures.
And most importantly, is this new approach involving EU bonds and other changes a welcome development or a controversial gimmick that could jeopardize the credibility of European financial markets? After all, it is still undecided whether such bonds used in this way contradict the “no-bailout” clause of Article 125 of the EU treaty. Are these wise moves, or are European policymakers playing with fire?

I took a shot at addressing these questions in a short essay alongside a distinguished group of economists and political analysts. You can read all the pieces HERE at The International Economy Magazine Website. Otherwise, my piece is below:

The European Union needs to move forward and quickly on utilizing EU-Bonds

FRANCIS J. KELLY

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors

The question of whether the European Union can and should pursue greater reliance on EU Bonds is particularly timely, as the EU truly grapples with taking the steps necessary for a more robust common defense and greater competitive capabilities. To date, there is clearly an appetite among financial markets for them as well. Indeed, a new €175 billion double-tranche was issued on October 8, bringing the overall market size to more than €650 billion. I would argue that the successful placement alone answers the question of whether EU bonds are good for liquidity in European financial markets.

However, to the broader question of the European Union more robustly using EU-Bonds (and settling the questions and challenges around the EU Treaty’s Article 25), it really can only be answered after other, more challenging questions are first answered regarding EU leadership. First, are EU leaders truly committed to making the structural changes needed to meet the challenges Mario Draghi outlined in his competitiveness report? And second, who within the European Union is capable of successfully championing the expanded use of EU-Bonds?

Arguably, the answers to those two questions are “yes, sort of” and “no one,” respectively. At the time of this writ- ing, the “Big Three” of the EU power structure—European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz—are besieged by weak economic outlook reports and growing domestic political challenges (or in the case of von der Leyen, two more no-confidence votes from the EU Parliament—the second round of the year).

Meanwhile, Chancellor Merz—who wisely achieved relief from the debt brake—is now grappling with anemic growth projections for 2026, anticipated to come in around 0.2 percent, with industrial production having dropped to 2005 levels. At the same time, the far-right AfD party’s poll numbers are rising to new heights. Fortunately, the economic outlook is likely to change mid-year 2026, with significantly healthier growth projections for 2027 and beyond.

As for President Macron and France, it seems only a matter of time before new parliamentary elections are called, with a serious risk that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally Party will finally break through and win a parlia- mentary majority—an event that will have massive fiscal and market ramifications for France, which will bleed over to the rest of the European Union.

So, for the near term, it would appear nearly impossible for Merz, Macron, or von der Leyen to lead the charge for greater use of EU-Bonds, meaning the best hope may be the emergence of a broader coalition of EU leaders making the case for a more robust EU bond market.

But the bottom line is that the European Union needs to move forward quickly on using EU bonds more broadly. The global competitive gap is growing by the day. And Russia is proving to be increasingly aggressive and volatile toward EU/NATO nations. All current political and economic challenges aside, the European Union will only lose by not pursuing a broader EU-Bond marketplace.

Francis Kelly 12/22/25 Francis Kelly 12/22/25

The Global Week Ahead

US – Russia Negotiations with Ukraine Continue, ASEAN Leaders to Hold Emergency Meeting on Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict, the US Puts Further Pressure on Venezuela, and Global Markets Are Quiet This Week

The world is quickly sliding into the Christmas week, hoping for peace and goodwill everywhere. Two examples of that are the ongoing talks led by US Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who held yet another round of talks with Russian negotiators in Miami yesterday, seeking a Ukraine peace deal. While the Trump Administration is suggesting that some small gains are being made, their Russian counterparts say nothing is moving. And from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address and question-and-answer call-in session last week, Russia has no intention of ending this war until it has achieved total victory over Ukraine. More talks are being scheduled in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers are gathering in Kuala Lumpur this week to see if they can de-escalate the growing conflict between Cambodia and Thailand. Recall President Trump announced earlier this month that he had negotiated a ceasefire, but that has since broken down as the two sides blame each other for renewed fighting on the border. At the time of this writing, reports indicate that the two sides have again agreed to meet to discuss a new ceasefire.

Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to escalate, with the US Naval and Coast Guard forces seizing a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. All three tankers are known to be flying false flags of operation and being part of a larger Venezuelan black market oil sales in contravention of sanctions on the country. One interesting aspect of the US pressure campaign is how this is negatively impacting Cuba, which has been a strong supporter – politically and militarily – of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s regime. As the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, the Cuban regime’s economy is close to collapse, with widespread blackouts and an estimated 25 percent of the population having fled the country in recent months.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, with the Christmas holiday, there isn't much that markets are watching for in terms of data releases or central bank action. The big events in the US will be the release of the delayed Q3 GDP, October durable goods orders, and November industrial production, all coming out on Tuesday. Also out on Tuesday will be the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for December.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will give a speech on Christmas Day on the Japanese economic outlook. And in Europe, there are no significant data releases scheduled.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week. We hope you have a very Merry Christmas!

Sunday, December 21, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Russian and US negotiators, led by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, meet in Miami to talk further about a peace deal in Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting an informal meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States in St. Petersburg through December 22.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

· Today is São Tomé Day, a national holiday in the African nation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 22, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Economic Activity (October)

· Canada PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

· Argentina Economic Activity (October)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Malaysia hosts a special ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting on Thailand–Cambodia border tensions.

· China's legislature will convene through Dec. 27 to consider 14 bills, including revisions to the Foreign Trade Law that would expand trade countermeasures.

· Japan’s Niigata Assembly meets to vote on restarting reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear plant.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (November)

· Hong Kong Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

· India Infrastructure Output (November)

· Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Current Account Q3/ Business Investment Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)/ Central Government Debt (November)

· Greece Current Account (October)

· Italy PPI (November)

· Poland Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

· Spain Balance of Trade (October)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (October)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, a national holiday.

· The annual Africa and Diaspora Integration Summit convenes in Lagos, Nigeria.

· The International Conference on African Studies and Global Africa meets in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security, including the rising tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Office of the US Trade Representative is expected to deliver a Section 301 investigative report on Chinese domination of the semiconductor industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (December)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

· Canada GDP (October)/ GDP Prel (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

· USA Durable Goods Orders (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Corporate Profits Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Redbook (December/20)/ Industrial Production (October and November)/ Capacity Utilization (October and November)/ Manufacturing Production (October and November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Shipments Index (December)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/19)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly

· Colombia Balance of Trade (October)/ Imports (October)

· El Salvador Current Account Q3

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

· Argentina Current Account Q3

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the birthday of Japanese Emperor Akihito, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

· Malaysia Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Index (October)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

· Taiwan Export Orders (November)

· India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Union New Car Registrations (November)

· Germany Import Prices (November)

· Hungary Current Account Q3

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (November)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Federal Government is closed per an Executive Order by President Trump in celebration of Christmas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chile PPI (November)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (November)

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/19)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/20)/ 15- and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

· Canada Budget Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Economic Index (October)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

· India M3 Money Supply (December/12)

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Russia Corporate Profits (October)/ Industrial Production (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 25, 2025

Global

· It is Christmas Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to the Councilors of Keidanren.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/20)/ Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Turkey Business Confidence (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Federal Government is shut in honor of Christmas per an Executive Order issued by President Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Bank Lending (November)

· Paraguay Current Account Q3

· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/26)

· Argentina Retail Sales (October)

· Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Vietnam Mobility Show will take place in Hanoi through December 28 with a focus on electric cars and motorbikes including hybrids. Companies are expected to offer discounts and test drives, while exhibitors will provide demonstrations on charging electric vehicles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production Prel (November)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Singapore Industrial Production (November)

· India Bank Loan Growth (December/12)/ Deposit Growth (December/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

· China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Ivory Coast holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Myanmar holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Central African Republic holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

· Guinea holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 12/14/25 Francis Kelly 12/14/25

The Global Week Ahead

Europe Steps Up Efforts For a Ukraine Peace Deal, Russian President Putin Holds His Annual Call-In Show, Chile Holds Its Presidential Election Runoff, and EU, and Major Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

December 14 - 21, 2025

The Christmas and New Year holidays are just around the corner but the geopolitical calendar remains quite busy, especially with regard to all things Ukraine This week, European Union leaders will gather in Brussels for a European Council meeting to discuss the latest efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine, while also seeking a solution to Ukraine’s urgent funding needs in 2026 and beyond.

That meeting is on December 18 & 19, and after a new, more urgent meeting on Monday in Berlin, called by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and featuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and numerous European heads of state, and potentially US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.

In advance of Monday's meeting, President Zelensky has said he is ready to drop his demand for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe. We will be watching for what Russian President Vladimir Putin might say a possible peace deal during his annual televised event Friday. That event blends his annual press conference with a nationwide call-in show where he supposedly takes unscripted questions from Russian citizens.

Also this week, Chile holds its presidential election runoff on Sunday. Conservative candidate Jose Antonio Kast is expected to win against left-wing candidate Jeannette Jara, who is seeking to replace her political ally, current President Gabriel Boric. While votes are still being counted, it appears Kast has won almost 60 percent of the vote.

Looking at the global economic and financial markets outlook, it is a big week for central bank meetings. The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Norway are all meeting to decide on interest rates.

Looking at major economic reports coming out this week, the US delayed jobs and inflation figures from November are finally being released. Also out in the US this week will be October retail sales figures. And Canada releases consumer inflation numbers on Monday.

Looking to Asia, China will release retail sales and industrial production figures on Monday. The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of business is out on Monday, and the November CPI figures are on Friday.

And turning to Europe, the UK releases labor market figures on Tuesday and inflation numbers on Wednesday. Germany releases the Ifo survey on Wednesday and consumer confidence numbers on Friday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

· The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara. Kast is expected to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 15, 2025

Global

· The OECD is expected to publish its G20 GDP Growth Report.

· The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: Leadership for Peace.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s new requirement that all H1B and H4 visa applicants make their social media profiles available for review goes into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will give a speech on the inflation outlook at Columbia University, New York, New York.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in an economic growth discussion before an event organized by the New Jersey Bankers Association.

· Brazil BC-BR Economic Activity (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Housing Starts (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI Median (November)/ Manufacturing Sales (October)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December)/NAHB Housing Market Index (December)/ NOPA Crush Report

· Colombia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

· Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong’s High Court is scheduled to deliver its verdict on the national security case against media executive Jimmy Lai. He is facing the prospect of life in prison.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Reserve Bank of Australia’s head of financial stability, Andrea Brischetto, speaks at the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, which runs through December 16.

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (November)

· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

· China House Price Index (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ FDI (YTD) (November)

· India WPI Food Index (November)/ WPI Fuel (November)/ WPI Manufacturing (November)/ WPI Inflation (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production Q3

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (November)/ GDP (November)

· Sri Lanka Services & Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is convening a meeting in Berlin, Germany of European, NATO, and US leaders to discuss advancements to the Ukraine peace process.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the latest updates on the peace talks.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels.

· The EU-Angola Ministerial Meeting begins in Brussels.

· The EU-Lebanon Association Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Wholesale Prices (November)

· Romania Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)

· Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts/ Producer & Import Prices (November)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (November)

· Turkey Budget Balance (November)/ Auto Production (November)

· Poland Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (October)

· Greece Construction Output Q3

· Serbia Building Permits (October)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September & October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Global

· The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) General Council meeting begins in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (on the 2334 resolution).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal event in Quebec.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Non-Farm Payrolls (October & November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Average Hourly Earnings (October & November)/ Government Payrolls (October & November)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (October & November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (November)/ Redbook (December/13)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Business Inventories (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/12)/ Building Permits (September & October)/ Housing Starts (September, October, & November)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

· Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bangladesh celebrates Victory Day, marking independence from Pakistan in 1971.

· Today is Kazakhstan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks at the AusPayNet Summit in Sydney.

· New Zealand Food Inflation (November)/ Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update / Credit Card Spending (November)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/16)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)

· Japan S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

· Philippines Business Confidence Q4/ Cash Remittances (October)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Parliament is scheduled to vote on the compromise EU-Mercosur Agreement package. However, France has thrown a last-minute wrench into the schedule, asking for a delay in the vote, which may sink the entire deal.

· The 24th Accession Conference with Montenegro begins in Brussels.

· The EU Environment Council meets in Brussels.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

· The European Commission is likely to announce it will soften the bloc’s emissions targets after mounting pressure from automakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the 7th BdP biannual Forum on Regulatory & European affairs B20 in Lisbon, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at a green finance research event in Paris, France.

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (October)/ Claimant Count Change (November)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

· France HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ZEW Current Conditions (December)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ECB Machado Speech

· Italy Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Belarus Industrial Production (November)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Bahrain National Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa celebrates the Day of Reconciliation, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on the Middle East (Yemen) followed by consultations – the Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on 2745 sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on SC subsidiary organs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s FX Market Structure Conference in New York.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a discussion on the economic outlook before the Gwinnett County Chamber of Commerce.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Yale University CEO Summit, New York, New York.

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/12)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Business Inventories (October)

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (October)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Semicon Japan begins in in Tokyo. The even brings together more than 1,200 tech companies and organizations to show off the latest advancements in technology and AI.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q4/ Current Account Q3

· Japan Machinery Orders (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (November)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (December)/ Lending Facility Rate (December)

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Western Balkans Summit begins in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI Input (November)/ PPI Output (November)/ Retail Price Index (November)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (December)/ Ifo Current Conditions (December)/ Ifo Expectations (December)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (December)

· Euro Area CPI Final (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ Wage Growth Q3

· Ireland Balance of Trade (October)/ Residential Property Prices (October)

· Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin

· Belarus GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 18, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (ONWAS), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will vote on draft resolutions to renew mandates of -UNDOF -MONUSCO – AUSSOM – CTE.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)/ Average Weekly Earnings (October)

· Mexico Retail Sales (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

· USA Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December)/ Philly Fed Employment (December)/ Philly Fed New Orders (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/12)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (December)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/17)/ CB Leading Index (October & November)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (October)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (November)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Hainan Free Trade Port opens, making it the largest free trade zone in China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/13)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (November)

· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Council meets in Brussels through December 19. EU national leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine, Gaza, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, and next steps on EU enlargement.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Meets to decide on Interest Rates; ECB Press Conference

· The Bank of England meets to make an Interest Rate Decision and releases Meeting Minutes.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at DIW conference "Fiscal Policy, Debt, and Inequality" in Berlin, Germany.

· UK British Retail Consortium December Consumer Sentiment Monitor

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)

· France Business Confidence (December)/ Business Climate Indicator (December)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November)/ Employment Growth (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ PPI (November)

· Euro Area Construction Output (October)

· Serbia Current Account (October)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/12)

· Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (November)

Friday, December 19, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Libya sanctions. This will be followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for the Department of Justice to release the files related to its investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, after Congress passed a bill compelling its release.

· The US Congress is scheduled to break for its Christmas recess.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)

· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q3/ Private Spending Q3

· Canada New Housing Price Index (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (October)

· USA Existing Home Sales (November)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/19)

· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q3

· Colombia Interest Rate Decision

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Japan-Central Asia Summit begins in Tokyo. It is the first-ever summit of leaders from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan with Japanese leadership and is aimed at improving greater trade among all the nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan meets on Interest rates.

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ ANZ Business Confidence (December)

· Japan Inflation Rate (November

· Australia Housing Credit (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)/ Commodity Prices (December)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/12)

· Indonesia Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold a televised event that blends his annual press conference with a nationwide call-in show.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion organized by the Aspen Institute Italia in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Economics Winter Workshop organized by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JAN/ PPI (November)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (December)

· Great Britain Retail Sales (November)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (November)/ CBI Distributive Trades (December)

· Hungary Gross Wage (October)

· France PPI (November)

· Switzerland Current Account Q3

· Euro Area ECB Wage Tracker Q4/ Current Account (October)/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (December)/ ECB Lane Speech

· Italy Business Confidence (December)/ Current Account (October)/ Industrial Sales (October)/ Construction Output (October)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (December)/ PPI (November)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q4

· Slovakia Current Account (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (November)

Saturday, December 20, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Mercosur Summit of leaders from the South American trading bloc countries due to meet and possibly sign the Mercosur-EU trade deal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 21, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 12/7/25 Francis Kelly 12/7/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s New National Security Strategy Sends Shock Waves, EU European Ministers Meet in Ukraine, and the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Other Central Banks Decide on Interest Rates this Week

December 7 - 14, 2025

The big geopolitical event this coming week is not what is going to happen but rather what happened last week: The release of the Trump Administration’s U.S. National Security Strategy, released this past Wednesday. The document – which is proving to be a geopolitical earthquake - is highly critical of Europe, blaming the continent and “other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife…”

The strategy also calls for an end to the expansion of NATO and criticizes Europe for “unrealistic expectations” on how to resolve the Ukraine War and has many wondering what the future commitment of the US to NATO actually will be.

From a financial market perspective, the strategy makes clear President Trump is determined to preserve and grow U.S. financial market domination globally, stating “The United States boasts the world’s leading financial and capital markets, which are pillars of American influence that afford policymakers significant leverage and tools to advance America’s national security priorities…”

Meanwhile – or in spite of the strategy – EU European Affairs Ministers will be gathering in Lviv, Ukraine this week to discuss Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU. Efforts to bring Ukraine into the bloc have faltered but this meeting is seen as likely jump-starting the talks again.

The big events this coming week will all be taking place in central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets this week and is expected to cut rates again. Also meeting this week to discuss interest rates is the Reserve Bank of Canada, the Swiss Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Turkey’s Central Bank.

Looking at the overall economic and financial radar screen for the coming week, it is a fairly quiet week globally. Starting in Asia, China reports on its trade balance on Monday and inflation (CPI and PPI) on Wednesday. Japan releases its Economy Watchers survey for November on Monday.

Turning to Europe, the UK reports Industrial Production on Monday and October GDP on Friday. Germany reports trade figures on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 8, 2025

Global

· The G7 Industry and Tech Ministerial meeting takes place in Quebec, Canada.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Myanmar. This afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on OSCE Chairperson-in-Office.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit begins in New York and runs through Tuesday. White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Auto Production & Exports (November)

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Uzbekistan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (October)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q3/ Bank Lending (November)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (November)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Markets and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will be receive a presentation on the ’Annual Overview Report on Simplification, Implementation and Enforcement’, followed by an exchange of views.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through December 9. Ministers will discuss migration and asylum policy.

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul travels to China for discussion on steel and rare earth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give a guest lecture on "The transformation of money: technological disruption and the future of financial services" at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany Industrial Production (October)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (November)

· Greece Balance of Trade (October)

· Hungary Budget Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 9th Pan African Congress will be held in Lome, Togo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (November)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 25th NATO Parliamentary Assembly Transatlantic Forum takes place in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (December/06)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September and October)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/05)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

· Argentina Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is expected to begin this week. The CEWC is expected to ratify the decisions of the 4th Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party held this past October.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates and holds a press conference.

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Private House Approvals (October)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (November)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at the ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)/ BOE Gov Bailey Speech

· Ireland Construction PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (November)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

· Greece Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Tanzania, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q4

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA). UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US government begins auctioning for oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets today and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell at 2:00 p.m.

· The Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates followed by a press conference with Bank of Canada Head Tiff Macklin.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (November)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/05)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/

· Brazil’s Central Bank meets to decide interest rates.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

China’s Premier Li Qiang holds the “1+10” Dialogue with the heads of major international economic organizations including President of the New Development Bank Dilma Rousseff, President of the World Bank Ajay Banga, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development Rebeca Grynspan, Director-General of the International Labour Organization Gilbert F. Houngbo, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Chair of the Financial Stability Board Andrew Bailey, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Jin Liqun, and Deputy Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Frantisek Ruzicka.

· Australia’s new social media age ban for under-16s comes into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (October)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

· Japan PPI (November)

· Australia RBA Chart Pack

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)

· China Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (October)

· India M3 Money Supply (November/28)

· Kazakhstan PPI (November)

· Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs in Lviv, Ukraine through December 11.

· UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears before the Treasury Committee in Westminster to give evidence on her recent Budget speech.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote interview with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf on "What are the futures of the euro and the dollar as global currencies, and what are the opportunities for the digital euro?" at 9th Edition of The Global Boardroom: "Achieving growth in a disrupted world" in London, United Kingdom.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery chairs a panel discussion at ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in panel discussion at the 20th High-level meeting on financial stability and regulatory and supervisory priorities jointly organized by AMF-BCBS-FSI in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

· Romania Balance of Trade (October)

· Turkey Industrial Production (October)

· Euro Area ECB Machado Speech

· Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

· Italy Industrial Production (October)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (October)

· Greece Industrial Production (October)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

· Belarus Inflation Rate (November)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Inflation Rate (November)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Iraq Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (November)

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

· Kuwait Interest Rate Decision

· Oman Interest Rate Decision

· Qatar Interest Rate Decision

· United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q3

· South Africa Retail Sales (October)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on UNOCA/LRA. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC Metting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This will be followed by a TCC Meting on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

· OPEC publishes its monthly oil production report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Falkland Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (October)/ Business Confidence (December)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/10)/ PPI (October and November)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (November)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (November)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (October)

· Ecadour Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q3

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q4/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/06)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/06)

· Australia Employment Change (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss macroeconomic developments and members states’ draft budgetary plans.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through December 12.

· Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the Covid-19 inquiry in London.

· Portugal’s two main trade unions, the CGTP and UGT, call a nationwide general strike against the center-right government’s proposal to ease dismissals, expand outsourcing and cut certain compassionate leave entitlements, including bereavement leave for miscarriages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the Arab Monetary Fund, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Institute high-level meeting in Dubai.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (November)

· Turkey Retail Sales (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)/ Auto Production (November)

· Slovakia Construction Output (October)

· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Ireland Inflation Rate (November)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (October)/ Mining Production (October)/ Building Permits (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)

Friday, December 12, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to vote on 2713 Sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti sanctions, as well as consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center Roundtable Series Program.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation before hybrid 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

· Mexico Industrial Production (October)

· USA Fed Paulson Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/12)

· Canada Building Permits (October)/ Capacity Utilization Q3/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)/ Wholesale Sales (October)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import and Export Prices (November)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (November)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (November)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

· Malaysia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

· India Inflation Rate (November)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/28)/ Deposit Growth (November/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)

· China Vehicle Sales (November)/ New Yuan Loans (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (November)/ Total Social Financing (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss Customs reform and the single currency package as well as imports of small parcels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Inflation Rate (November)/ Current Account (October)

· Romania Inflation Rate (November)

· Turkey Current Account (October)

· Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Construction Output (October)/ GDP (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)

· Hungary Construction Output (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

· France Inflation Rate (November)

· Spain Inflation Rate (November)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (November)

· Russia Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Jamahuri Day in Kenya, otherwise known as Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q4/ SACCI Business Confidence (October and November)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, December 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

· The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara. Kast is expected to win.

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Cost of the Jay Powell Investigation

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

Our Annual Christmas Book Recommendations

International Economy Magazine: EU Bonds - Is Europe Playing with Fire?

The Global Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Subscribe to our newsletter.