The Global Week Ahead

US and Danish Officials Meet to Discuss the Future of Greenland, G7 Finance Ministers Meet On Critical Minerals, Iranian Protests Grow More Violent, and It is the Kick-Off of Earnings Season

It is going to be another intense week geopolitically, all with significant market implications.  As markets intensely watch the situation in Venezuela, especially after the lukewarm response from major oil companies on Friday to President Trump’s plea for them to return to Venezuela.  

President Trump is expected to meet with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado this week (the date has not yet been announced).  Machado said she will give Trump her Nobel Peace Prize as a sign of her gratitude for the recent military action against Venezuelan strongman Nicholas Maduro. 

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced he will meet with Danish officials and Greenland’s Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt in Greenland to discuss the US's interest in acquiring the autonomous territory. That meeting is expected to be on Tuesday or perhaps Wednesday.  The meeting comes as President Trump says he is considering military action to take Greenland (something Rubio has told members of Congress will not happen).  

Interestingly, a Cold War-era treaty signed in 1951 by the US and Denmark granted the US enormous latitude to massively increase its military presence in Greenland.  We will be watching to see if this becomes the focal point of the Rubio-Motzfeldt meeting.

Meanwhile, in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is hosting a dinner for G7 finance ministers to discuss critical minerals.  It shows the Trump Administration’s growing focus on ensuring a strong, secure supply chain for the US and its allies.

In Asia, several important events will take place.  First, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carny is making a state visit to China to meet with President Xi Jinping.  The meeting comes after years of growing tensions between the two nations (recall the Canadian arrest of the Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhu in 2018 and accusations of election meddling in 2024).  Carney is expected to discuss ways to ramp up Canadian oil exports to China and to establish better trade terms between the two countries.  

In Europe, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz will be traveling to India for trade talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  And in France, all eyes are on court proceedings in Paris as opposition leader Marine Le Pen seeks to overturn her conviction for misuse of EU funds, which resulted in her being banned from running for public office for five years.

But perhaps the biggest event markets are watching globally this week is the ongoing and increasingly violent protests in Iran.  The protests are the result of an increasingly brittle economy and are being held across the country.  In a rare move, the government has called out the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to help suppress the protests – a move which has resulted in hundreds of civilians being killed and having the counter-effect of making the population angrier and more aggressive in the protests.  President Trump has now repeatedly warned the Iranian leadership that the US will strike militarily if the government continues to attack protesters– something Israel has indicated they would join the US in doing.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, starting in the US, the big event in the US will be the December US CPI report on Tuesday – the last one ahead of the Federal Reserve's January 28 Open Market Committee meeting to decide interest rates.  Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday and the PPI and retail sales figures on Wednesday.

In Europe this week, the data schedule is light.  The UK GDP is out on Thursday.

In Asia, the big event is China’s trade figures on Wednesday, with expectations of a result showing slowing from 6 percent to 4 or 41/2 percent.  Japan releases the Economy Watchers survey, PPI, and the December bank lending survey on Wednesday.  

Finally, earnings season kicks off this week. We will be watching the US bank results closely as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock all report this week. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, January 11, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Myanmar holds the 2nd phase of its parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin holds parliamentary elections – the first since a coup attempt in December.

·       Naval exercises led by China and expected to include vessels from South Africa, Iran, and Russia will be held off the coast of South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 12, 2026

Global

·       The AIAA SciTech Forum 2026, a five-day aerospace R&D conference, begins in Orlando, Florida.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in Washington to discuss transatlantic relations.

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent is hosting a dinner in Washington, DC, of finance ministers from the G7 to discuss critical minerals.

·       Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi will visit the United States through January 18.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before an MNI webinar.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion with the CEO of Intercontinental Exchange.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the North Carolina Bankers Association Economic Forecast Forum.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics event organized by the Council on Foreign Relations.

·       USA Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn & Soy & Wheat (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is traveling to the United Arab Emirates for a working visit. He's expected to attend the signing of a landmark trade deal, marking Manila's first such pact with a Middle Eastern nation.

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will host South Korean President Lee Jae Myung for a summit in the ancient Japanese city of Nara. The talks will focus on economic and cultural cooperation and mark a continuation of diplomatic engagement by the historical rivals.

·       Today is Coming of Age Day in Japan, a public holiday. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ Household Spending (November)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

·       India Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is on a two-day visit, including a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Ahmedabad. The tour will take place in Bengaluru, where Merz will meet German companies.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Asuncion, Paraguay, to sign the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement.

·       EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis participates in Critical Minerals Finance Ministerial dinner hosted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington, D.C.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, will visit Zagreb, Croatia, where he will have bilateral meetings with the President, Zoran Milanović, the Prime Minister, Andrej Plenković, and the Speaker of Parliament, Gordan Jandroković.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey takes part in a meeting of the Bellagio Group 2026 at the Bank’s London headquarters, hosted by Clare Lombardelli, deputy governor, monetary policy.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat during a presentation of the euro yearbook 2025 at Instituto Español de Analistas in Madrid, Spain.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (November)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account (November)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran is supposed to be hosting the International AI Fair in Tehran, but it has been cancelled due to internal national protests.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 13, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

·       The World Health Organization (WHO) will launch two new reports calling for new taxes on sugary drinks and alcoholic beverages.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Greenland to meet with Danish officials over the issue of the US taking over Greenland.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Beijing, the first visit by a Canadian premier since 2017, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and security.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the CFA Society, Washington, DC.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem participates  (again) in moderated discussion on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before an MNI webinar.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ Redbook (January/10)/ New Home Sales (September & October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/Monthly Budget Statement (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/09)                 

·       Canada Building Permits (November)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (December)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (December)

·       EARNINGS: Bank of New York Mellon, Delta Air Lines,  JPMorgan Chase 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (January)

·       Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)

·       China Vehicle Sales (December)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Paris, the Court of Appeal begins the appeal trial for French far-right leader Marine Le Pen over the misuse of EU funds.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (December)

·       France Budget Balance (November)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (November)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Future Energy Summit is set to begin in Abu Dhabi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the maintenance of international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The UN’s International Labour Organization (ILO) will release its Employment and Social Trends 2026 report, offering new insights into the current state and future prospects of global labor markets. 

·       Today is New Year’s in the Orthodox faith.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue its next rulings on January 14 as several major cases remain pending, including the legality of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.  The decision was expected last Friday but now appears set for today.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia State of the Economy event.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech entitled “Regulations, the Supply Side, and Monetary Policy” at the Delphi Economic Forum Lecture, Athens, Greece.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in virtual town hall conversation hosted by the Wisconsin Bankers Association.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated discussion on the economy as part of the Atlanta Business Chronicle 2026 Economic Outlook event.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before “An Economy That Works for All: Financial Inclusion" event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/09)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/09)/ PPI (October & November)/ Current Account Q3/ Retail Sales Control Group (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Business Inventories (October)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/09)/Fed Beige Book

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

·       EARNINGS: Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (December)/ Export Prices (December)

·       New Zealand Building Permits (November)

·       Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (December)/ Reuters Tankan Index (January)

·       India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Oman.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a  speech at the Spain Investors Day 2026 in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden gives a speech at Kings College London on “The Evolution of Resolution.”

·       Alan Taylor, external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, will speak at the National University of Singapore. Meanwhile, deputy governor, markets and banking, Dave Ramsden will speak at King’s College London.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (December)/ Current Account (November)

·       Hungary Construction Output (November)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Great Britain BoE Taylor Speech/ BoE Ramsden Speech

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Heads of State Meeting takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Global

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of the launch of Wikipedia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

§  Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on a panel discussing stablecoins after the GENIUS Act at the Wharton Future of Finance Forum in Washington.

§  Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber Board of Directors meeting.

§  Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber Financial Forecast.

§  Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks on the economy and monetary policy.

·       Brazil Retail Sales (November)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)

·       USA Export Prices (November)/ Import Prices (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/03)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/15)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/14)/ Import Prices (October)/ Export Prices (October)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       EARNINGS: BlackRock,  Goldman Sachs,  Morgan Stanley, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/10)/ PPI (December)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/10)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (December)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament’s Security and Defence Committee will take stock of the EU’s defense partnerships, including with the UK, Canada, Norway, South Korea, Japan, Moldova, Albania, North Macedonia, the US and Ukraine. It will adopt recommendations on how to align these relationships with the broader objectives of building a strong EU defense policy. MEPs are also expected to address relations with NATO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in an Exchange of Views on the outcomes of the ECB High-Level Task Force on Simplification at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Great Britian RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Romania Industrial Production (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/09)

·       Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Italy Industrial Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Serbia Current Account (November)/ Building Permits (November)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Uganda holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Friday, January 16, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A federal court hearing will be held for Tyler Robinson, charged with murder in the shooting death of Charlie Kirk.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Philip Jefferson speaks at the AIER Monetary Conference in Boca Raton, Florida.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech at the Outlook ’26 New England Economic Forum, Foxborough, Mass.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)/ PPI (November)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)/ Housing Starts (December)

·       USA NY Fed Services Activity Index (January)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/16)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Earnings:  M & T Bank, PNC Financial Services,  Regions Financial, Reliance Industries, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A South Korean court will render its verdict on former President Yoon Suk Yeol on charges of obstruction of justice following his failed attempt to declare martial law in late 2024.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)/ Food Inflation (December)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/09)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Services PMI (December) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is set to visit Japan and hold a summit with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for the first time.  Meloni will then head to South Korea on Saturday for a meeting with President Lee Jae Myung, marking the first state visit to the country by an Italian leader in 19 years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (December)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, January 17, 2026 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 18, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Qatar to meet with leaders to discuss bilateral investments.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds its presidential election. he president is elected for a five-year term with a two-term limit, has the discretionary power to dissolve parliament and presides over the consultative Council of State.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.