The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Drags On and Expands, Trump to Meet with Japanese Prime Minister, EU Leaders Gather to Talk Energy, Trade, and War, and A Big Week Ahead of Central Banks

March 15 - 22, 2026

The Iran War is expected to continue this week and likely expand.  Markets will continue to struggle to understand the scope and breadth of the impact on oil and other commodity markets, and for any signs of an “off-ramp” to the fighting.

Iran announced on Sunday they would expand their targeting after the US bombed Kaurq Island, accusing the UAE of allowing the attacks to come from US bases in the UAE.   As a result, Iran said it would begin targeting three Emirati ports, this being the first direct stated threat by Tehran against any of their neighboring countries. Up until now, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, but has claimed they are only targeting US military and diplomatic targets in the respective countries.

President Trump is now appealing to allied countries to send naval ships to help open up the Strait of Hormuz.  He stated on Friday that “many countries” will be sending warships to the Strait, but as of this writing, no country appears to be willing to do so, arguing it would be too risky.  More worrisome, Trump threatened NATO over the weekend, saying it would be “very bad” for the organization if it failed to send ships to help him reopen the Straits.

One country President Trump will be directly appealing to is Japan, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi makes her first visit to Washington on Thursday.  The two leaders have a long agenda of issues they intend to discuss, including wrapping up a US-Japan free trade agreement, access to critical minerals, and Trump’s request for naval assistance in the Strait of Hormuz.  Takaichi is likely to put off the request.  Senior Japanese officials said Saturday they “regard the threshold as extremely high” for sending naval ships to the region under existing Japanese laws (Japan does not have a formal army or navy but instead a defense agency).  Japan is highly dependent on oil from the Middle East and has announced it will release 80 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve.

Also, this week, EU heads of state will gather in Brussels for a European Council meeting.  The agenda will be dominated by the War in Ukraine and the Iran War.  But leaders will also discuss how to improve EU competitiveness and ensure greater energy independence amid spiking fuel prices.  As leaders meet, the EU Parliament’s International Trade Committee will meet to vote on the EU-US trade deal.  They had postponed doing so weeks ago after the Trump Administration launched new global tariffs following the US Supreme Court striking down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a means to impose worldwide tariffs.

Finally, we would note that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in Paris this weekend, meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to hammer out an agenda for President Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing on March 31st.  We believe there is a strong chance the meeting will be cancelled as Trump is demanding China send naval ships to the Straits of Hormuz.  We will be watching this closely.   

Beyond that, and if the summit indeed happens, we understand the major sticking points to finalizing an agenda are President Trump’s desire to negotiate directly with President Xi in person, while Xi wants a framework hammered out in advance of the meeting.    We would also note that, so far, no US CEOs have been asked to accompany Trump on the trip – something that normally happens at bilateral leaders’ meetings, as it gives CEOs on both sides an opportunity to announce new deals and investment plans.

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screens, it is going to be a very big week for central banks.  The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England are all meeting this week on interest rates. Also meeting this week are the central banks of Australia, Brazil, China, Canada, Indonesia, Sweden, and Switzerland.

Looking at key economic data releases this week, the US markets are awaiting the February industrial production figures on Monday.  Europe is awaiting Germany’s ZEW Survey on Tuesday and the UK labor market data on Thursday.   In Asia, China releases its economic activity indicators (retail sales and industrial output) on Monday.

And in earnings news, US firms FedEx, Micron, and Dollar General are reporting this week.  And in China, powerhouse companies Tencent and Alibaba report.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris, France, to discuss President Trump’s upcoming trip to China in April.

·       The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam will host the inaugural China-Vietnam 3+3 Summit through March 17.

·       Vietnam holds parliamentary elections.

·       North Korea holds parliamentary elections.

·       Kazakhstan holds a constitutional referendum on whether to approve a new constitution.  The new constitution includes restructuring Parliament, redefining the balance of powers between state institutions, and expanding constitutional guarantees of human, digital, and environmental rights .

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus celebrates Constitution Day.

·       France holds regional elections including the first round of mayoral elections.

·       The UK celebrates Mothering Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (February)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of the Congo holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 16, 2026

Global

·       The Global Fraud Summit will be held at the Vienna International Centre in Viena, Austria. The Summit will be co-organized by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and INTERPOL.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The first round of preparatory discussions for the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement begins. 

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits the U.K. to meet with Keir Starmer.

·       Nvidia GTC, a four-day AI conference, including a keynote speech from the chipmaker’s founder and CEO Jensen Huang, begins in San Jose, California.

·       Mexico celebrates Benito Juarez Day, a national holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Common (February)/ CPI Median (February)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (February)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March)/ Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

·       EARNINGS: Marshalls, SAIC, Telos, Semtech, Dollar Tree

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (February)/ Services NZ PSI (February)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (February)

·       China House Price Index (February)/ Industrial Production (January-February)/ Retail Sales (January-February)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (January-February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ FDI (YTD) (February)

·       India WPI Food Index (February)/ WPI Fuel (February)/ WPI Inflation (February)/ WPI Manufacturing (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       EARNINGS: Foxconn

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Energy Ministers will meet in Brussels as the Energy Council, taking stock of the progress made on the action plan for affordable energy, which was presented by the European Commission a year ago to lower energy costs.

·       Separately, the Foreign Affairs Council will meet to discuss Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will unveil new steps the government intends to take to solidify UK energy needs in the wake of the Iran War.

·       Finish President Alexander Stubb travels to London for bilateral meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

·       The 7th meeting of the EU-UK Parliamentary Assembly meets in Brussels through Tuesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, today is the annual review of the “shopping basket” of goods and services used to measure consumer price inflation indices. Also, the S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index and Rightmove’s March House Price Index.

·       Turkey Budget Balance (February)/ Auto Production (February)/ Auto Sales (February)

·       Serbia Building Permits (January)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (February)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: Standard Life

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q4

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Global

·       Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

·       The International Energy Agency and the OECD cohost a Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump hosts President Donald Trump hosts Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin at the White House.

·       The Senate Homeland Security Committee holds confirmation hearings for Markway Mullin to be the new Secretary of Homeland Security.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (March)/ Redbook (March/14)/ Pending Home Sales (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/13)  

·       EARNINGS: Prudential, Boku

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (February)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/17)

·       Singapore Balance of Trade (February)/ Non-Oil Exports (February)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (March)/ Lending Facility Rate (March)/ Loan Growth (February)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (January)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Services PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Scottish parliament debates and votes on the assisted dying for terminally ill adults (Scotland) bill, which is similar to that under consideration for England and Wales. The Isle of Man and Jersey have already passed their own versions of assisted dying laws.

·       UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers the annual Mais Lecture at Bayes Business School in London. Reeves is expected to use it to pitch her vision for closer ties with the EU, central to a new growth strategy for the UK. 

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss preparations for the European Council meetings later this week.

·       The European Parliament lead negotiators will decide whether to restart work on the EU-U.S. trade framework ratification process.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Brussels to discuss the CO2 emission standards for cars and vans.

·       The 26th Accession Conference with Montenegro takes place in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ ZEW Current Conditions (March)

·       Romania Current Account (January)

·       Great Britain BoE Evans Speech

·       Serbia Current Account (January)

·       Belarus GDP (February)

·       EARNINGS: Travis Perkins, Ashtead Technology

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q4

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Global

·       The International Maritime Organization convenes an extraordinary session on the situation in the Middle East in London.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve concludes two days of meetings on interest rates/Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference/USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/13)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/13)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/13)/ PPI (February)/ Factory Orders (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (January)

·       Chile Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       The Bank of Canada meets on Interest Rates and BoC Head Tiff Macklen holds a press conference/Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (January)/

·       The Central Bank of Brazil meets on Interest rates/Brazil Business Confidence (March)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (January)

·       Argentina Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Micron Technology, General Mills

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, large corporations will begin announcing pay-raise plans for the fiscal year starting in April. Also, Japanese Trade Union Confederation will publish the first tabulation of spring wage-talk results, offering markets an early indication of whether wage growth will sustain the momentum of the past three years.

·       The Japan National Tourism Organization will release data on the number of foreign visitors to Japan in February. While inbound tourism had been recovering since the COVID-19 pandemic, visitors in January declined year on year for the first time in four years amid warnings from the Chinese government to its citizens not to travel to Japan in response to remarks on Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Current Account Q4/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Tencent

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Netherlands holds municipal elections.

·       The Tripartite Social Summit takes place in Brussels.  The purpose of the meeting to have a forum for dialogue between the EU institutions at the presidential level and with European social partners at top management levels.  The agenda includes closing investment gaps and reducing strategic dependencies in the EU.

·       The EU Space Agency Council meets in Brussels through March 19th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the Handelsblatt annual Banking Supervision Conference "Regulierung vereinfachen. Stabilität sichern. Wettbewerbsfähigkeit stärken." in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Euro Area CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary

·       Russia PPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 19, 2026 

Global

·       Today is the end of Ramadan (Eid al-Fitr).  Financial markets are closed across most of the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will make her first visit to the U.S. as prime minister, holding a summit with Trump. The two leaders are expected to talk about various topics including the Middle East situation as well as economic and security cooperation.  President Trump is expected to pressure Takaichi to send warships to the Middle East to support the US/Israeli war on Iran.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board holds an Open Board Meeting.  The agenda item is to vote on meet to vote on proposed new capital rules for small and large banks, including a re-proposal of the Basel endgame capital plan.

·       USA Building Permits (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (March)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (March)/ Philly Fed Employment (March)/ Philly Fed New Orders (March)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (March)/ New Home Sales (January)/ Wholesale Inventories (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/19)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/18)/ CB Leading Index (January)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Leading Indicator (February)

·       Chile Imports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Accenture, FedEx, Darden

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s parliament votes on a candidate for prime minister, a key step for government formation after the February 8th election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of China meets on interest rates.

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates/Japan Machinery Orders (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/14)/ Reuters Tankan Index (March)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Australia Employment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)/ Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (January)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Alibaba, CK Hutchison

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council begins a two-day Euro Summit in Brussels.  Leaders of the EU nations will meet to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the EU competitiveness agenda.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosts a bilateral meeting with Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in London.

·       The Airlines4Europe Aviation Summit begins in Brussels. Europe’s leading airline executives, including Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary and Lufthansa’s Carsten Spohr, are expected to join the two-day meeting, which will discuss European competitiveness and reactions to the Middle East conflict.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (February)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       The Bank of England meets on interest rates/Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Claimant Count Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (February)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (February)/ Employment Growth (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ PPI (February)

·       The European Central Bank meets on Interest Rates and ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference/Euro Area Construction Output (January)/ Labour Cost Index Q4/ Wage Growth Q4

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Lloyds of London, Enel

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (January)

·       Ghana PPI (February)

Friday, March 20, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington DC, the National Cherry Blossom Festival begins and runs until April 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Today is “Quadruple Witching” in US markets, with stock-index futures and options, as well as single-stock options and futures, all expiring.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q4/ Private Spending Q4

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ PPI (February)/ Raw Materials Prices (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/20)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Argentina Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates the Spring Equinox, a national holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Credit Card Spending (February)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 5Y & 1Y (March)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (February)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q4/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/06)/ Deposit Growth (March/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/13)/ Infrastructure Output (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council concludes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks on the German economy in Goslar, Germany.

·       Germany PPI (February)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (February)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Construction Output (January)

·       Poland Business Confidence (March)

·       Slovenia PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ M2 Money Supply (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (January)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: Smiths Group, JD Wetherspoon

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Global

·       Today is World Downs Syndrome Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Twitter (now known as X) was launched 20 years ago.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives brief acceptance remarks at the American Society for Public Administration (ASPA) Annual Conference: Paul A. Volcker Public Integrity Award Ceremony (virtual).

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Budapest, Hungary.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual speech at a workshop on the transformation of the international monetary and financial system organized by Suomen Pankki in Saariselkä, Finland.

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovenia Parliamentary Elections

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Namibia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Bolivia holds regional elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam announces election results from its twice-a-decade National Assembly elections.  Following this, the parliament then meets to pick a prime minister and a president for a five-year term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds its second round of municipal elections.

·       Slovenia holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy votes on a referendum changing the justice system which will separate the career paths of judges and splits Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.  The reform effort is one of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s primary government reform agenda items.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Expands, G7 Ministers Meet To Discuss Releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserves, US and China Hold Trade Talks in Paris,  and Markets Grapple with Spiking Oil Prices

March 8 - 15, 2026

The conflict in Iran will continue to dominate the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape in the week ahead.  Oil prices spiked over $100 a barrel over the weekend, surpassing $110 before settling back around the $100-mark early Monday.  The Strait of Hormuz has become gridlocked with oil carriers.

Markets are looking for the “off-ramp” of hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran but none seem to be materializing as the US/Israeli forces grind away at Iranian military targets and infrastructure (including Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities over the weekend).  Iranian missile and drone attacks continue (hitting 14 countries) but have decreased, according to US military sources, by roughly 90% in the last four days.  Yet, Iranian leaders remain defiant, choosing as their new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in airstrikes last week. The new Supreme Leader is seen as hardline – perhaps even more so – than his late father.  It is believed his wife and son were killed along with his father. He has vowed to fight on.

With intensifying concern over the spike in oil prices and massive likely economic impact – especially for the European Union and most major Indo-Asian nations (except for China, which has built up an estimated 2-billion-barrel oil reserve), G-7 finance ministers are meeting today (Monday) to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. 

Elsewhere this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to arrive in Paris to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss the agenda for President Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing (March 31 – April 2) to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  While tariffs are sure to be the primary discussion point between Trump and Xi, it has been noted that so far no US CEO delegation has been arranged – something US corporates are hoping for to secure deals.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, while investors will continued to be laser-focused on the Iran conflict, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now going into their quiet-period before their respective rate-setting meetings (the Fed meets on March 17 & 18 and the ECB meets March 19) – meaning, there will be likely little to no commentary from the two central banks on the potential economic impact of the Iran situation.  

In terms of major economic data releases this week, the US will release February CPI on Wednesday and January PCE on Friday.  Also out this week will be the January durable goods orders and the University of Michigan’s March consumer survey on Friday.

In Europe, the UK GDP is out on Friday, and Germany’s industrial production, January factory orders, and trade balance are out on Tuesday.  In the Indo-Pacific, Japan’s February Economy Watchers Survey and China will release February’s inflation report (reflecting the Lunar New Year holidays) on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 8, 2026

 Global

·       Daylight Saving Time begins in the United States with clocks going forward one hour in each state except Hawaii and Arizona, which do not observe daylight saving time.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia holds legislative elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress winds down.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Commonwealth Foreign Ministers Meeting will be held in London.

·       Switzerland holds a nationwide referendum. Voters will be asked on whether to cap the annual license fee for the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation at 200 francs while exempting other companies from the levy, whether to introduce individual taxation requiring married couples to file separate tax returns, whether to create a federal climate fund, and whether to protect cash in the constitution by guaranteeing that coins and banknotes remain in circulation.

·       Germany will hold state elections in Baden-Wurttemberg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 9, 2026

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are expected to meet virtually to discuss the US/Israel War with Iran and the possible coordinated release of strategic oil reserves.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva gives the keynote speech at the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Future of Global Economy among Fluid International Economic and Monetary Order Symposium” in Tokyo, Japan.

·       The UN Security Council will meet on the situation in Afghanistan.

·       Today is the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that will put an EchoStar 25 broadcast communications satellite into geostationary orbit is scheduled to launch from Cape Canaveral in Florida at 11.14 pm local time.

·       The US Senate is in session this week.  The US House of Representatives are out of session this week and will be holding their annual legislative retreat at President Trump’s Doral resort in Doral, Florida.  President Trump will speak to the Caucus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (February)/ Auto Exports (February)/ Auto Production (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Hewlett Packard, Korn Ferry

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Economic ministers will gather in Manila, the Philippines.  The region is struggling to assess and plan  accordingly from the Iran conflict and will focus heavily on the war.  They will also discuss policy proposals to generate growth in ASEAN. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Overtime Pay (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Bank Lending (February)/ Coincident Index (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (February)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

·       China Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)/ Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss energy prices and impact on the Euro area economy, the digital finance workstream, macroeconomic development in the Euro area, an assessment of the Belgian draft budgetary plan for 2026 and prepare for the upcoming Euro Summit on March 19 & 20.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss investing in children, Human Capital, quality jobs and AI, and how to break the poverty cycle.

·       In Portugal, José Seguro is sworn in as president.

·       NATO will hold “Cold Response 2026,” a military exercise being held in arctic Norway, running through March 19.

·       The 2nd Nuclear Energy Summit will begin in Paris, France.

·       Commonwealth Day service at Westminster Abbey marking the annual celebration of the Commonwealth of Nations. King Charles and Queen Camilla, and the Prince and Princess of Wales, are expected to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Frank Elderson gives remarks at the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) annual plenary meeting hosted by the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria, South Africa.

·       Germany Factory Orders (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (January)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Hungary Budget Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Israel Business Confidence (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos at the White House to discuss bilateral trade and regional security issues.

·       US Presidential Envoy’s Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the Iran situation.

·       Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy gives his annual pre-budget speech at the Empire Club of Canada.

·       The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission holds its 38th annual Regulatory Information Conference through March 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (February)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (March/07)/ Existing Home Sales (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/06)

·       El Salvador PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: Domino’s Pizza, Oracle, NioNTech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visits New York until Wednesday. He will participate in a series of high-level engagements, including an address before a special session of the United Nations' General Assembly.

·       South Korea and the U.S. will hold their annual Freedom Shield military drills, which involve large-scale live defensive training exercises, until March 19. In previous years, regional tensions have sometimes spiked during the exercises, as North Korea condemns them as rehearsal for an invasion, and past military maneuvers have sparked clashes in border areas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (March)/ NAB Business Confidence (February)/ Building Permits (January)/ Private House Approvals (January)

·       Japan Household Spending (January)/ Average Cash Earnings (January)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Machine Tool Orders (February)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January-February)/ Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (January)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: Jardine Matheson

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss savings and investment union, economic governance, and recovery and resilience in the financial sector.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       ECB Governing Council members Gediminas Simkus and Madis Muller join a roundtable discussion on “Baltic Economic Resilience” at Lietuvos Banks in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (February)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (February)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (February)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (January)

·       Italy PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (February)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: Volkswagen, Hugo Boss, Lindt

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (January)

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4

·       EARNINGS: Saudi Aramco

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Forex Trading Expo begins in Nairobi, Kenya and runs through March 11.

·       The  Africa CISO Summit in Nairobi, Kenya begins and runs through March 11.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (February)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Global

·       The International Energy Administration’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

·       OPEC releases its monthly report.

·       Today is the 150th anniversary of Alexander Graham Bell speaking for the first time on the telephone. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Chile's new president, Jose Antonio Kast, will be sworn into office.

·       The Inter-American Development Bank Group Annual meeting takes place in Asuncion.

·       The US Infrastructure Summit takes place in Washington, D.C.  Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and a number of members of Congress will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/06)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI (February)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (February)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (January)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Hill & Smith

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan PPI (February)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (December)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (January)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February/28)

·       China Vehicle Sales (February)/ National People’s Congress

·       Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Cathy Pacific

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers in Brussels through March 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a  fireside chat at the 32nd Encuentro del Sector Financiero organized by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a guest lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Centre for Central Banking in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks in a House of Lords Financial Services Regulation Committee hearing on stablecoins.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (February)

·       Romania Retail Sales (January)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (January)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (January)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Corporate Profits (December)

·       EARNINGS: Rheinmetall, Legal & General, Kloeckner & Co, London Gatwick Airport

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Basel III and Bank Capital Rules at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (February)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Building Permits (January)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)/ Wholesale Sales (January)

·       USA Housing Starts (January)/ Building Permits (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/07)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/06)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/12)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/11)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (February)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Adobe, Computacenter, Dollar General

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q4

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q1/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/07)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (January)

·       India Inflation Rate (February)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (February)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period in advance of the March 18 – 19 rate-setting meeting.

·       Bank of England Governor and Financial Stability Board Chair Andrew Bailey gives opening remarks at the Financial Stability Board Payments Summit in London.

·       Bank of England Director Vickey White speaks at the Connect Global Group’s 4th Annual Treasury and Capital markets Forum in London.

·       ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks on financial stability at Bloomberg’s Future of Finance summit in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (February)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Current Account (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (March)/ Overnight Lending Rate (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/06)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Swiss Re, BMW, TP ICAP, Vivendi, RWE, Savills, Helios Towers

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius celebrates Independence Day.

·       The Nigeria Solar Forum is being held in Lagos, Nigeria.

·       The PanAfrican Tourism Board hosts a conference in Johannesburg, South Africa running through March 14.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q4/ Gold Production (January)/ Mining Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Friday, March 13, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro and interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez plan to meet in the border city of Cucuta, Colombia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Industrial Production (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Wages (February)/ Capacity Utilization Q4/ Manufacturing Sales (January)

·       USA Personal Income (January)/ Personal Spending (January)/ PCE Price Index (January)/ JOLTs Job Openings (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions (March)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/13)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (February)

·       EARNINGS: Lennar

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (February)/ Visitor Arrivals (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q4

·       India Bank Loan Growth (February/28)/ Deposit Growth (February/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/06)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (February)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in North Norway.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Romania Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Great Britain GDP (January)/ Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Construction Output (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

·       Hungary Construction Output (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (January)

·       Greece Construction Output Q4

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. National Energy Dominance Council, a body created by U.S. President Donald Trump to boost American energy production, will co-host the two-day Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum in Tokyo. Nearly a dozen Indo-Pacific countries are expected to attend the event, which will include a behind-closed-doors ministerial meeting.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (February)/ M2 Money Supply (February)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (February)/ Total Social Financing (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris, France to discuss President Trump’s upcoming trip to China in April.

·       The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam holds parliamentary elections.

·       North Korea holds parliamentary elections.

·       Kazakhstan holds a constitutional referendum on whether to approve a new constitution.  The new constitution includes restructuring Parliament, redefining the balance of powers between state institutions, and expanding constitutional guarantees of human, digital, and environmental rights .

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus celebrates Constitution Day.

·       France holds regional elections including the first round of mayoral elections.

·       The UK celebrates Mothering Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (February)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of the Congo holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariff Blow-Up, U.S.-Iran Tensions Spike, German Germany’s Merz Visits Beijing, Mexico Military Moves on Cartels, and Markets Await Nvidia’s Earnings and Central Bank Speeches

February 22 - March 1, 2026

This is going to be one very busy week geopolitically and geoeconomically. Perhaps truly historic when all is said and done, as tensions in Iran, Mexico, and global markets are all at a new peak.

First, at the time of this writing, the Mexican Army, in an unprecedented action, has moved against the country's largest and most dangerous drug cartel, Jalisco New Generation (CJNG), killing its leader, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes – otherwise known as “El Mencho “– on the outskirts of Puerto Vallarta. 

This has resulted in a large-scale ongoing battle between heavily armed CJNG gunmen and the Mexican Army in and around the city of Puerto Vallarta, including a reported attack by gunmen on the international airport, leading to the airport's closure.  Aside from the massive significance of the Mexican government's decision to go after the biggest and most dangerous cartel, perhaps the most interesting news coming out of the take-down of El Mencho is that a U.S. military task force is openly assisting the Mexican Army.  

Our view is this is all part of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum'sefforts not just to contain an increasingly political threat from cartels but also to show President Trump Mexico is truly committed to not only crack down on illegal immigration but dalso on rug trafficking – the two issues which drove President Trump to slap tariffs on Mexico last year and imperil the renewal of the USMCA trade agreement.  We are likely to see other large-scale attacks on other drug kingpins, which are likely to expand the violence elsewhere in Mexico.

Meanwhile, following President Trump's loss at the Supreme Court over the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs, the President announced a new set of tariffs to replace what was deemed illegal.   But the reality is, Trump's tariff efforts have suffered a major blow, and anything he does now will have a limited time span, as written into law – Trump intends to use Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, set at a 15% rate, as the main new tariff.  But under that law, it can only be held in place for 150 days.  He then intends to use Section 301 under U.S trade law after Section 122 expires. But in both instances, new lawsuits are expected to be brought by businesses, especially since the US Justice Department, in defense of the President's use of IEEPA, argued that using Section 122 would not be legal.

The bottom line is that tariffs are not going away. Still, President Trump has a limited time to use them in the remainder of his presidency, and Republicans in Congress are increasingly getting uneasy about their use and even now opposing Trump, as we saw in a vote in the House of Representatives two weeks ago. And two new polls suggest that 64% of Americans oppose the President's handling of tariffs on imported goods. 

We will hear more from the President on Tuesday night when he gives the annual State of the Union Address before Congress.

As all this happens, tensions in the Persian Gulf have ramped up considerably in the last week as President Trump has now given Iran “15 days" to strike a deal with the U.S. or risk being attacked by the largest U.S. Naval force that has been amassed in the region since the first Gulf War.  Iran is saying they will be meeting with President Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, on Friday, but the White House is saying that is contingent on Iranian leaders providing a detailed proposal to the U.S. on how they intend to dismantle and limit their nuclear program and nuclear weapons project.  Trump has also indicated he could order an attack on Iran at any time.  

 In Asia this week, the big event is German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's visit to Beijing for bilateral talks with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.  Merz had strong words for China last week at the Munich Security Conference, but also put forth a conciliatory hand, saying he hopes to “find the right balance of cooperation" with China on this trip.   Germany has long seen China as a major market, especially for its automotive sector, which sold 35 million cars in China in 2025.  But those numbers have already significantly slowed down in the first two months of 2026, along with other German exports to China.

 Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are nervous enough with all the geopolitical tensions, but are also nervous ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement on Wednesday.  The report is seen as a clear indication of how demand for high-tech AI chips has been and will continue to be, as markets grow increasingly nervous about corporate AI investments.  

A host of other major corporate earnings are being reported this week in the US, Europe, and Asia. In the US, we will see the delayed January PPI release on Friday.  But first, we will be getting the Conference Board's consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the President's State of the Union on Tuesday, and numerous Federal Reserve Board and regional Fed President speeches this week.

 In Europe, the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, speaking Monday at the NABE (National Association of Business Economics) Economic Conference in Washington, D.C., is expected to come out strongly against President Trump's newset of tariffs and to offer a sense of the impact they will have on EU-US trade.

Also coming out of Europe this week, Germany releases its important Ifo Survey on Monday.  But the big day this week is Friday, when Germany, France, and Spain release their CPI prints and consumer confidence numbers.  The UK will also release its consumer confidence figures on Friday.

Finally, turning to Asia, Japan releases industrial production figures and the Tokyo CPI (February) on Friday.  Australia releases its inflation print (CPI) on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 22, 2026

Global

·       Italy will host the closing ceremony for the 2026 Winter Olympic Games at the Verona Olympic Arena.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will make a state visit to South Korea through February 24.

·       Today is Independence Day in St. Lucia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea's quinquennial Party Congress could persist through February 27.

·       Laos holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria celebrates the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, celebrating events in 2019 when the entire country rose in unison to hold nationwide protests leading to a change in the government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 23, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US officials will hold bilateral security discussions with their Mauritian counterparts on the continued use of the joint US-UK base on Diego Garcia. This three-day meeting follows an agreement finalized last year between the UK and Mauritius, which sees the UK hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

·       Today is the deadline set by Warner Bros Discovery for Paramount to make a “best and final” offer to top Netflix’s agreed $83 billion takeover bid or step aside. However Paramount’s $108 billion offer last week cleared a key US antitrust hurdle.

·       Today is Republic Day in Guyana, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the  2026 National Association for Business Economists (NABE) Annual Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Economic Activity (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)/ Factory Orders (December)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)                 

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Dominion, Domino’s Pizza, Hims & Hers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 45th U.S. – Thai "Cobra Gold" military training hosted by Thailand begins at the Thai navy base in the eastern coastal city of Chonburi. The multinational military exercises will take place through March 6, with more than 8,000 military personnel from 30 countries joining the full-scale training drill.

·       The International Criminal Court starts the confirmation of charges hearing against Duterte. The former Filipino leader, currently facing three counts of crimes against humanity, is currently being held in a detention center at The Hague in the Netherlands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q4/ Credit Card Spending (January)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (February)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union lawmakers will hold an emergency meeting Monday to reassess the bloc’s trade deal with the US following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down some of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.

·       A new Dutch cabinet will be sworn in, with Rob Jetten set to become prime minister.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East (Gaza and West Bank as well as the growing tensions between the US and Iran).

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

·       Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an acceptance speech for the 2026 Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award and remarks at NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington DC

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Alan Taylor takes part in a Deutsche Bank-hosted fireside chat in London.

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (February)/ Ifo Current Conditions (February)/ Ifo Expectations (February)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (February)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (January)

·       EARNINGS: LendLease, MONY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump gives the annual State of the Union speech before the U.S. Congress.

·       Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to present her controversial electoral reform plan to parliament.

·       The 50th Regular Meeting of the Conference of the Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) will be held in St. Kitts and Nevis through February 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech focused on technology at the2026 Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference: Shaping the Future of Finance and Payments, Boston, Massachusetts.  Also speaking at the Conference will be Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan Collins and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President & CEO Tom Barkin.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on artificial intelligence and productivity at the 2026 National Association for Business Economists (NABE) Annual Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee will speak at the 42nd Annual Economic Policy Conference of the National Association for Business Economics in Washington, D.C. 

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook.

·       Brazil Current Account (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)

·       Chile PPI (January)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (February)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (February/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (December)/ House Price Index (December)/ CB Consumer Confidence (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (February)/ Money Supply (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/20)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (December)

·       Peru Current Account Q4

·       EARNINGS: American Tower REIT, Axon Enterprise, GoDaddy, Home Depot, HP, Keurig Dr. Pepper, ScotiaBank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will reconvene, with top priorities including discussion of a special defense budget and the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal.

·       The UN-sponsored Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development 2026 will be held from February 24-27 in Bangkok, Thailand.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)/ PPI (January)

·       China FDI (YTD) (January)

·       EARNINGS: Singapore Airlines, UOB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to Beijing for meetings with President Jinping Xi.  The leaders will discuss bilateral trade and security issues.

·       Today is the 4th anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  European Affairs Ministers will discuss preparations for the upcoming European Council meeting on March 19-20 as well as the European Democracy Shield.

·       Today is Independence Day in Estonia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on the opening panel discussion at the International Outreach Programme of Alte Oper Frankfurt in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the KPMG RiskTech Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates on a panel discussion at the Nordea-ING event on "Banks and EU competitiveness: the untapped potential of the single market" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       BOE Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence on the latest Monetary Policy Report to Parliament’s Treasury Committee, joined by Chief Economist Huw Pill, and rate-setters Megan Greene and Alan Taylor.

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson discusses the economic situation in Sundsvall, Sweden.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (January)

·       France Business Confidence (February)/ Business Climate Indicator (February)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q4

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (February)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: City of London Investment Group, Standard Chartered, Telefonica, Unite

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1718 Committee (North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks in a moderated panel at the Northern Virginia Chamber.

·       Brazil Bank Lending (January)

·       President and CEO of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Alberto Musalem speaks at the Missouri Athletic Club in St. Louis, Missouri.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/20)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/20)/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/25)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (January)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (January)

·       Mexico Current Account Q4

·       Argentina Retail Sales (December)

·       Paraguay PPI (January)

·       EARNINGS: Zoom, Urban Outfitters, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Lowe’s, Agilent Technologies, Bank of Montreal, National Bank of Canada

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea, the country with the world's lowest fertility rate, is due to publish birth rate data for 2025 amid concerns about how an aging society will weigh on the economy.

·       Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the city’s 2026–27 budget.

·       The Asia Energy Security Seminar, hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to promote Japan’s energy security activities. This year’s event will focus on the role of diplomacy with a particular emphasis on oil and natural gas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Japanese government will present to the Japanese Diet two new nominees to the Central Bank of Japan’s board.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock speaks in a fireside chat at the University of Melbourne.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (February)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (January)/ CPI (January)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (January)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Index (December)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February/14)

·       EARNINGS: Baidu

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers today and tomorrow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic speaks in the EU Parliament in Brussels ahead of his appointment as ECB vice president.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the PwC Credit Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       France Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (January)

·       Spain PPI (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (February)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Russia Industrial Production (January)

·       EARNINGS: HSBC, Aston Martin Lagonda, Diageo, E.On, Fortescue, Fresenius, Heathrow, Manchester United, St. James Place, Shaftsbury Capital

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

·       The International Monetary Fund's executive board will meet to discuss the reviews of Egypt's Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility programs to potentially unlock up to $2.8 billion. 

·       Today is National Day in Kuwait, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa South African 2026 National Budget Speech

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to appear before the House Oversight Committee as part of an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, followed by the testimony of former President Bill Clinton the next day.

·       Argentina's main labor union, the General Confederation of Labor, will hold a 24-hour general strike to oppose labor reforms. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman testifies before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Canada Current Account Q4/ Average Weekly Earnings (December)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/21)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (February/14)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (February)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/26)

·       EARNINGS: Dell, Intuit, JM Smucker, Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, TD Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajimie Takata gives a speech to local leaders in Kyoto, Japan.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/21)/ BoJ Takada Speech/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (February)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q4/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q4/ Private Capital Expenditure Q4

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia PPI (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (January)

·       Taiwan Current Account Q4/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       EARNINGS: Maybank HKEX, Quantas Airways

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       A special election will be held in Gorton and Denton, suburbs of Manchester, UK.  The outcome could spell the end of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s rule in office.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research) will meet in Brussels.  The Council will discuss research and funding for coal and steel, and the Horizon Europe Package.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at the Bank of England/UK Women in Economics Network networking event in London.

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/20)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Loans to Households & Companies (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)/ Economic Sentiment (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Sentiment (February)/ Selling Price Expectations (February)/ Services Sentiment (February)

·       Italy Business Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Greece Total Credit (January)

·       Spain Business Confidence (February)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       EARNINGS: Allianz, Clariant, Man Group, Rolls-Royce, Tate & Lyle, WPP, Deutsche Telekom, Drax, London Stock Exchange, Puma

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (January)

Friday, February 27, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Dominican Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (February)/ Net Payrolls (January)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q4/ GDP Implicit Price Q4/ Budget Balance (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate JA

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (January)/ Fiscal Balance (January)

·       USA PPI (January)/ Chicago PMI (February)/ Construction Spending (November & December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/27)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Cement Production (January)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: AES

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian Air Force is set to hold a large-scale exercise at Pokhran in the northwestern state of Rajasthan using fighter, transport, and helicopter platforms. Among the assets to be demonstrated are indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft, French-made Rafale fighters, and Russian-developed Sukhoi Su-30 MKI jets. The exercise will also showcase glimpses of the IAF's role in rescue and evacuation from conflict zones.

·       Today is Peace Memorial Day in Taiwan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Construction Orders (January)

·       Australia Housing Credit (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Private Consumption (January)/ Private Investment (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Government Budget Value (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (February/06)/ Deposit Growth (February/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/20)

·       EARNINGS: New World Development, RHB  

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the Elgin Advisory and Society for Professional Economists “UK & US economics” webinar.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (February)/ Car Production (January)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

·       Germany Import Prices (January)/ Unemployed Persons (February)/ Unemployment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (February)/ Bavaria CPI (February)/ Brandenburg CPI (February)/ Hesse CPI (February)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (February)/ Saxony CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Economic Confidence Index (February)/ Participation Rate (January)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ KOF Leading Indicators (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q4/ PPI (January)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (January)/ Jobseekers Total (January)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)/ Current Account (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (December)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Greece Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (January)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (January)

·       Serbia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Swiss Re, AES, Hays, Rathbones, IAG, Melrose Industries

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (February)

·       Kenya

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Global

·       Six of our solar system’s planets — Jupiter, Uranus, Saturn, Neptune, Venus, and Mercury — will be visible in the night sky of the northern hemisphere in a “parade” after sunset.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

·       Today is the deadline for China to meet its pledge to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Global

·       The U.S. takes the rotating chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to India for meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

·       Beijing is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed from about 85 per cent to 15 per cent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

NATO Defense Ministers Meet to Discuss Ukraine, The Munich Security Conference Brings Focus to the Future of NATO, the Lunar New Year Begins, and a Week of Big Earnings

February 8 - 15, 2026

The geopolitical focus this week will be on Europe, with a focus on Ukraine and NATO.  The big event of the week is the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC), which begins on Friday.  There is always a lot of news from the MSC, and we expect this year to be no different, as a major theme of the conference is the future of NATO and Europe’s drive to build a stronger, more integrated defense sector.

 However, the MSC comes on the heels of an important meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Thursday to discuss further military support for Ukraine.  US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he plans to skip the meeting.  Later in the day, EU defense ministers will meet amongst themselves and with Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

We would also note that, while it has yet to be formally announced, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has told reporters he expects the first trilateral peace talks among Ukraine, Russia, and the USto take place sometime this week, most likely in Miami.  

The biggest event of the week took place today (Sunday) in Japan, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide win in snap elections.  Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gained a historic supermajority in the Japanese Diet (Parliament), winning 316 of the 465 seats.  The results are expected to have major impacts on Japan’s defense strategy and tax cuts, and to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to hold rates.

In the US, Washington’s growing focus on Latin America continues as summit on Friday to discuss common security concerns.  

This comes as President Trump hosts a Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.  Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, markets are watching for the delayed January jobs data, released on Wednesday, and the delayed January CPI report, released on Friday.  

In Europe this week, it is a relatively light data week.  European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give several speeches, including two at the Munich Security Conference.  In the UK, Q4 GDP is released on Thursday. 

Moving to Asia, Japan’s Economy Watchers survey is out on Monday, and PPI on Thursday.  China’s inflation reports are out on Wednesday.

Finally, this is a heavy earnings week in the US and Europe.  Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

·       In Bahrain, the UN-sponsored World Entrepreneurs Investment Forum 2026 will be held through February 10th.

·       The 2026 Winter Olympics continue through February 22nd in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA may launch three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.  This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

·       Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds lower house elections.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position.  More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

·       Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 9, 2026

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on digital assets at the Global Interdependence Center Summit: The Dollar and Continued U.S. Exceptionalism, La Jolla, California.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation on the economy at the Boston University Questrom School of Business Events and Conference Center, Boston, Massachusetts. Later, eh will participate in a conversation at the WBUR Podcast: Is Business Broken, in Boston.

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation with Pro Farmer.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai is due to be sentenced, following his conviction in a controversial trial that drew global attention. Lai was found guilty of colluding with foreign forces under the National Security Law that China imposed on Hong Kong in 2020, and of publishing seditious materials.  He could receive a life sentence.

·       The Philippines' House of Representatives is expected to vote on whether to revive impeachment complaints against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. While a lower house committee previously dismissed the bid for "lack of substance," a one-third vote from the chamber could still overturn that decision.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (January)

·       Australia Household Spending (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Motorbike Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       EARNINGS: DBS

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Great Britain’s Prince William is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in debate on the state of the EU economy and ECB activities in Strasbourg, France.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at Maynooth University in Maynooth, Ireland.

·       European Central. Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus speaks in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel joins panel discussion on inflation in Karlsruhe, Germany.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (December)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (January)

·       EARNINGS: UniCredit

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

South Africa will host the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Global

·       International Energy Week runs through February 12 in London, assembling global leaders to tackle key issues in the energy transition.

·       The Oslo Energy Forum is being held in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance will visit Armenia.

·       President Trump hosts the Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.  Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at the Asset Management Derivatives Forum.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Export Prices (December)/ Import Prices (December)/ Redbook (February/07)/ Business Inventories (November)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Fed Logan Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (January)/ Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (January)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador PPI (January)

·       EARNINGS: Ford, Mattel, Principal Financial, CVS Health, Duke Energy, AstraZeneca, AIG, Coca-Cola, Spotify

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cryptocurrency data company CoinDesk holds its Consensus HK Conference through Thursday in Hong Kong, bringing industry luminaries to a city striving to develop as a hub for the sector. But the shaky performance of Bitcoin and other digital currencies so far this year will be looming over the festivities.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       EARNINGS: Mazda, Honda

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (January)

·       France Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Turkey Industrial Production (December)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (December)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

·       Greece Industrial Production (December)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Barclays, BP,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (January)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Global

·       The UN’s the 6th Global Conference on the Elimination of Child Labour will be held from through February 13th in Marrakech, Morocco.

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance is expected to visit Azerbaijan.

·       The US will host the inaugural Western Hemisphere Chiefs of Defense Conference in Washington.

·       Barbados holds elections for their House of Assembly.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on supervision and regulation at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference (virtual)

·       Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks at the Economic Forum of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

·       Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks on leadership at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Brazil PPI (December)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February)/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)

·       Bank on Canada releases summary of deliberations/Canada Building Permits (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

·       EARNINGS: Cisco, Hilton Worldwide, McDonald’s, Tenet Healthcare, T-Mobile US, Kraft Heinz

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is expected to conduct a test launch of its new Long March-10A rocket, slated for use on lunar missions.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4/ RBA Hauser Speech

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/23)

·       EARNINGS: Grab, Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and how to offer greater support.  US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he intends to skip the meeting.

·       Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.  The meeting will focus on managing bilateral relations and delimiting the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as well as discussions of the continental shelf and mining.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Eugen Böhm von Bawerk Lecture at the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, Austria.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives closing remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England’s Executive Director of International James Talbot will give a speech at the London School of Economics on “Climate Change, the Economy, and the Financial System: Perspectives from the Bank of England.)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (December)

·       Italian Industrial Production (December)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Balance of Trade (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)

·       EARNINGS: Commerzbank, Dassault Systemes, TotalEnergies,  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt will host the AI Everything Middle East and Africa Summit in Cairo through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 39th Ordinary Summit of the African Union will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia through February 15th.  Heads of state will be gathered to discuss security and economic issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December and January)

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1988 Committee. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation with Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Global Perspectives Event, Dallas, Texas.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/31)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/12)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/11)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Airbnb, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Applied Materials, Wynn Resorts

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh heads to the polls, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party tipped to perform well, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as a significant force as voters eye a change from politics as usual. The party led by the students who drove the 2024 protests has failed to build momentum, however, and has become part of a Jamaat-led alliance.

·       Singapore Finance Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the 2026 budget statement in Parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)/ RBA Hunter Speech

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (November)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       India Inflation Rate (January)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: Softbank, Nissan

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to sip the meeting.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) in Brussels.  The Council will discuss EU military support to Ukraine, with a focus on cooperation in defense innovation, after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, who will be present in person.

·       There will be an informal meeting at an EU leaders retreat in Alden Biesen castle in Belgium.  The focus on the retreat, according to an invitation letter sent by EU President António Costa, is competitiveness and “strengthening the single market in the new geoeconomic context.”

·       There will be an informal meeting of the EU Employment and Social Affairs Council through February 13th in Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a lecture at a conference organized by the Commissione Europa of the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a speech at The World Ahead 2026 Sofia Gala Dinner in Sofia, Bulgaria.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on European monetary policy at Euro50 Group

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Greece Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Current Account Q4

·       Germany Current Account (December)

·       EARNINGS: Hermès, L’Oreal, Mercedes-Benz, Schroders, Siemens, Swisscom, Thyssenkrupp, Unilever, British American Tobacco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 13, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The G7 Foreign Ministers are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Rio Carnival opening ceremony is held.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (December)

·       USA Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/13)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech at the Kanagawa Keizai Doyukai.

·       South Korea Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

·       China House Price Index (January)

·       Malaysia Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: Kirin

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Munich Security Conference begins in Munich, Germany and runs through February 15th.

·       The UK Parliament goes into recess until February 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona, Spain.  Later, he gives remarks and participates in a Q&A at the Círculo de Confianza by Foment de Trebal in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks in a fireside chat at a Santander event in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Romania Industrial Production (December)

·       Turkey Current Account (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ Employment Change Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Building Permits (December)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September, October, November, and December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 14, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Current Account Prel Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion on trade dependencies and global supply chains during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 15, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lunar New Year begins.  China begins a weeklong holiday to celebrate the Year of the Horse.  Financial markets are closed in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion on European Competitiveness during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (January)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

The Global Week Ahead

The EU and India Close In On A Free Trade Deal, UK Prime Minister Travels to China and Japan, the US Congress Races to Avoid Another Shutdown, and a Big Week for Earnings and Interest Rates

January 26 - February 1, 2026

Our apologies for the late publishing of the Global Week Ahead – we are digging out from a massive snow and ice storm here in Washington, D.C.  And ee hope you had time to catch your breath after the breakneck pace of events last week in Davos. The geopolitical pace will be a bit slower, but several momentous events are happening this week.  

First, it appears the EU and India are very close to finalizing a landmark free trade deal. European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are traveling to New Delhi this week to co-chair the EU-India Summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where they are expected to sign the deal.   This is likely to be a big deal for the European automotive, aircraft, chemical, and machinery sectors amid ongoing trade tensions with the US and China.  

Also in Asia this week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be traveling to Beijing and then Tokyo for bilateral meetings.  His China trip is the first visit by a UK Prime Minister in eight years and will re-establish the UK-China Business Dialogue, offering new opportunities for UK business that have been hampered by both trade spats and security concerns.  Starmer’s trip to Japan will also likely create major new business opportunities for UK businesses.

Here in the United States, markets are very closely watching two possible big events this week: President Trump is likely to announce his nominee for chair of the Federal Reserve Board, while the US Supreme Court may hand down its decision on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade regime.  

Prediction markets heated up late last week on the idea that BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder would be the Fed nominee.  As of now, the nominee pool seems to be Reider, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and possibly Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (despite repeated denials from the White House and Bessent – our long-shot bet still is Bessent being the nominee).  

While the Supreme Court is not formally scheduled to release any decisions this week (other than those released this morning – which did not include the trade case), they may break precedent and release it before their next scheduled decision release date of February 20th.  

Also in Washington this week, Congress is once again locked in a fight over funding the federal government and faces a possible shutdown at midnight Friday.   The latest tension point was not over actual budget funding disputes but over the Trump Administration’s ongoing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in Minneapolis, which resulted in the tragic shooting of a protester this past weekend.  Senate Democrats said they will not move on the Department of Homeland Security funding bill (ICE is a bureau of Homeland Security).  With a major snowstorm shutting down Washington on Monday and likely Tuesday, too, Congress will be working on a very tight timeline to avoid a shutdown.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is a big week for central banks and corporate earnings. 

The US Federal Reserve meets this week to discuss interest rates, and market consensus is that there will be no new rate cuts.  The Reserve Bank of Canada will also meet this week, and market consensus expects it to hold off on any new cuts.  Elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere, the Central Bank of Brazil and the Central Bank of Chile will meet this week to discuss interest rates (both are expected to hold).

In the US, the major economic reports out this week include durable goods orders on Monday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence on Tuesday, and delayed PPI reports for November and December on Friday.  It is also a big week for corporate earnings in the US this week with four of the seven “Magnificent Seven” reporting (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple) plus Exxon, Boeing, UPS, RTX, American Airlines, Northrop Gruman, Kimberly-Clark, United Health Group, General Motors, and Texas Instruments.    

We will be listening closely the both VISA and Mastercard’s earning call for reactions to President Trump’s recent demand to cap credit card interest rates at 10% (which banks issuing cards seem to have largely ignored or are considering the creation of a product line -  as both Citi and Bank of America are considering offering new cards capped at 10% for a year).

In Europe this week, the European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of its interest rate decisions on February 4th and 5th.  The major economic releases include the European Central Bank’s monthly consumer expectations on Friday, Germany’s  Ifo survey on Monday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, and CPIs on Friday.  Additionally, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK will be reporting GDP this week. 

In Asia, Japan will have a busy Thursday with the release of the consumer confidence, retail sales, industrial production, and Tokyo CPI reports.  China will be releasing industrial profit figures on Tuesday.  

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Monday, January 26, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security: Reaffirming international rule of law: Pathways to reinvigorating peace, justice and multilateralism.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby will visit South Korea through January 27th.  He will then travel to Japan for consultation meetings. Colby was a major contributor to the recently released US National Defense Strategy 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Direct Investment (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)

·       EARNINGS: NUCOR, Crane

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, Leaders of the respective political parties will hold their first debate ahead of the February 8th  lower house election. The following day, official campaigning begins for the 465 seats up for grabs.

·       The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong.   Business and government leaders from across the region and the Middle East gather to discuss the global economy, network, and strike deals. Tariffs, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical friction will provide plenty of fodder over the two days.

· Today is India's Republic Day, celebrating the country's gaining independence from Great Britain in 1947.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Australia Day, celebrating the arrival of Great Britain’s First Fleet in 1788 on the continent.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (December)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The North Sea Summit will be held in Hamburg, Germany.  The Hamburg Declaration will be signed by ten European leaders pledging to build 100-gigawatt joint offshore wind projects (which roughly equals all energy produced by the UK).

·       The EU holds its 26th Accession Conference with Montenegro.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Parliament is expected to review its decision to freeze the ratification of the EU-U.S. tariff framework agreement, which was suspended following U.S. threats over Greenland.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mr. Mark Rutte, will address the European Parliament´s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and Committee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in Brussels

·       The Paris Haute Couture Fashion Week begins. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank  Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the “Outlook for 2026 in the light of multifaceted challenges worldwide” in Berlin, Germany.   Later, he discusses monetary policy before the German parliament.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher speaks at the OMFIF roundtable on monetary policy in London.

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (January)/ Ifo Current Conditions (January)/ Ifo Expectations (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (January)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Dubai will host the  Invest Africa New Year Reception: Trade, Investment, and the UAE-Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will give a speech on the economy and energy in Iowa.

·       The US is expected to formally withdraw from the Paris Climate Change Agreement.

·       Honduras’ new president, Nasry Asfura, will take office.  Asfura is closely aligned with President Trump, who endorsed his candidacy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (January)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (December)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (January/24)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November)/ House Price Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (January)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (January)/ Money Supply (December)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/23)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Boeing, UPS, RTX, American Airlines, Northrop Grumman, Kimberly-Clark, United Health Group, General Motors, Texas Instruments, PPG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (December)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (December)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events

·       The EU – India Summit takes place in New Delhi.  European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They are likely to sign a massive new bilateral trade deal. Additionally, they will discuss EU-India relations, Russia’s war on Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the security situation in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcome remarks and a commemorative speech at the annual event marking International Holocaust Remembrance Day (IHRD) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel joins panel on digital euro in Berlin, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (January)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (December)

·       France Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: LVMH

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Trump Administration’s recent actions in Venezuela.

·       The Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) hosts the International Economic Forum Latin America and the Caribbean 2026 in Panama City, Panama through January 29th.  Brazilian President Luiz Inǎcio Lula Da Silva (Lula), Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz Pereira, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Chilean President-elect José Antonio Kast, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Boboa will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee finishes two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates, Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. EST

·       The Bank of Canada holds a meeting on interest rates followed by a press conference by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem.

·       Reserve Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/23)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/23)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/23)/

·       Colombia Business Confidence (December)

·       EARNINGS: Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, ASML Holding, AT&T, GE Verona, Corning, General Dynamics, Starbucks, VF Corporation, Progressive, ADP, IBM, Waste Management

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian Air Show begins in Hyderabad.  This is India’s largest air show, and India is the world’s third-largest aviation market. The country is expanding the number of airports they have now (160) to 350 by 2047.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

·       Australia Inflation Rate (December)/ Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (December)/ CPI (December)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (December)           

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia PPI (December)

·       India Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ M3 Money Supply (January/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Frank Elderson will give an introductory statement at the appointment hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a presentation at the 4th Women’s Network Meeting of the Baden-Baden Entrepreneur Talks (BBUG) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence FEB

·       Italy Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (December)

·       Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will have closed consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) and another one on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Conservative National Convention begins in Calgary and runs through January 31st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (December)

·       Canada Balance of Trade (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings (November)/ Imports (November)/ Exports (November)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/24)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q3/ Unit Labour Costs Q3/ Factory Orders (November)/ Wholesale Inventories (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/23)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/29)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/28)

·       EARNINGS: Mastercard, Caterpillar, Nokia, Altria, Nasdaq, Royal Caribbean Group, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, Apple, SanDisk, VISA

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to travel to China, the first time a UK prime minister has traveled to China in eight years.  He will meet with President Xi Jinping to discuss a multitude of trade issues.

·       ASEAN's foreign ministers will gather in Manila,  the Philippines, to discuss regional issues, including ongoing South China Sea negotiations, the Thailand-Cambodia border crisis, and the political chaos in Myanmar.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ ANZ Business Confidence (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/24)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/24)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement/ Import Prices (December)/ Export Prices (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Australia Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4

·       Philippines Full Year GDP Growth 2026/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Brussels through January 30th.

·       The EU-Morocco Association Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollon will participate in a virtual conversation at the New Year's Forum in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a fireside chat at the House of the Euro event on simplification in Brussels, Belgium.

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period before the February 4-5 interest rate meetings.

·       Great Britain Car Production (December)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (December)/ Economic Confidence Index (January)/ Participation Rate (December)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/23)

·       Hungary PPI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (December)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies (December)/ Loans to Households (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Economic Sentiment (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)/ Industrial Sentiment (January)/ Selling Price Expectations (January)/ Services Sentiment (January)

·       Greece PPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Total Credit (December)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (November)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)/ Jobseekers Total (December)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (September, October, & November)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       EARNINGS: SAP, Sanofi, Eurofins, Remy Cointreau

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, January 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Funding for the US federal government is set to expire at midnight unless Congress comes up with an agreement to continue funding.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a speech on monetary policy, supervision, and regulation, at the  SW Graduate School of Banking at SMU Cox: 161st Assembly for Bank Directors (Virtual)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated discussion before the University of Arkansas Center for Business and Economic Research 32nd Annual Business Forecast Luncheon.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)/ Gross Debt to GDP (December)/ Nominal Budget Balance (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Net Payrolls (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Balance (December)

·       Canada GDP (November)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       USA PPI (December)/ Chicago PMI (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/30)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, SoFi, Verizon, American Express, Charter Communications

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (December)/ Jobs/applications ratio (December)/ Tokyo CPI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Housing Starts (December)/ Construction Orders (December)

·       Australia PPI Q4/ Housing Credit (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)

·       Philippines PPI (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (December)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Government Budget Value (December)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/09)/ Deposit Growth (January/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/23)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will give a keynote speech at the Forum on Saving Investments Union, organized by PSO Knowledge and Portugal Fintech in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give remarks at the Dreier-Club Abend event in Essen, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic speaks at a state conference on Croatia and OECD.

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)/ PPI (December)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Germany Import Prices (December)/ Unemployment Change (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (January)/ Bavaria CPI (January)/ Brandenburg CPI (January)/ Hesse CPI (January)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (January)/ Saxony CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Tourism Revenues Q4/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (January)/ BoE Consumer Credit (December)/ Mortgage Approvals (December)/ Mortgage Lending (December)/ M4 Money Supply (December)/ Net Lending to Individuals (December)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Current Account (November)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Poland Full Year GDP Growth 2026/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Current Account (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Budget Balance (December)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (January)

Saturday, January 31, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is technically the end of Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran’s term on the Fed Board, but he can continue to hold the seat for another year or until President Trump nominates someone to replace him.

·       Texas holds a special election to fill the seat for the 18th congressional district, which became vacant when Congressman Sylvester Turner (D) passed away in March 2025.  The district is considered a safe Democratic seat.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit Japan for talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in the first such visit by a British leader in three years. Starmer is reportedly due to travel to China with a British business delegation beforehand. Tokyo is hoping to coordinate its position on China with London.

·       Today is Nauru Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (January)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January)/ NBS General PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held virtually.

·       The UK assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents the country's annual budget for the fiscal year starting in April, with the focus likely to be on fields such as infrastructure development, green energy, and steps to boost export competitiveness amid U.S. President Donald Trump's punishing 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Union Budget 2026

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

US and Danish Officials Meet to Discuss the Future of Greenland, G7 Finance Ministers Meet On Critical Minerals, Iranian Protests Grow More Violent, and It is the Kick-Off of Earnings Season

It is going to be another intense week geopolitically, all with significant market implications.  As markets intensely watch the situation in Venezuela, especially after the lukewarm response from major oil companies on Friday to President Trump’s plea for them to return to Venezuela.  

President Trump is expected to meet with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado this week (the date has not yet been announced).  Machado said she will give Trump her Nobel Peace Prize as a sign of her gratitude for the recent military action against Venezuelan strongman Nicholas Maduro. 

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced he will meet with Danish officials and Greenland’s Foreign Minister Vivian Motzfeldt in Greenland to discuss the US's interest in acquiring the autonomous territory. That meeting is expected to be on Tuesday or perhaps Wednesday.  The meeting comes as President Trump says he is considering military action to take Greenland (something Rubio has told members of Congress will not happen).  

Interestingly, a Cold War-era treaty signed in 1951 by the US and Denmark granted the US enormous latitude to massively increase its military presence in Greenland.  We will be watching to see if this becomes the focal point of the Rubio-Motzfeldt meeting.

Meanwhile, in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is hosting a dinner for G7 finance ministers to discuss critical minerals.  It shows the Trump Administration’s growing focus on ensuring a strong, secure supply chain for the US and its allies.

In Asia, several important events will take place.  First, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carny is making a state visit to China to meet with President Xi Jinping.  The meeting comes after years of growing tensions between the two nations (recall the Canadian arrest of the Huawei Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhu in 2018 and accusations of election meddling in 2024).  Carney is expected to discuss ways to ramp up Canadian oil exports to China and to establish better trade terms between the two countries.  

In Europe, German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz will be traveling to India for trade talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.  And in France, all eyes are on court proceedings in Paris as opposition leader Marine Le Pen seeks to overturn her conviction for misuse of EU funds, which resulted in her being banned from running for public office for five years.

But perhaps the biggest event markets are watching globally this week is the ongoing and increasingly violent protests in Iran.  The protests are the result of an increasingly brittle economy and are being held across the country.  In a rare move, the government has called out the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to help suppress the protests – a move which has resulted in hundreds of civilians being killed and having the counter-effect of making the population angrier and more aggressive in the protests.  President Trump has now repeatedly warned the Iranian leadership that the US will strike militarily if the government continues to attack protesters– something Israel has indicated they would join the US in doing.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, starting in the US, the big event in the US will be the December US CPI report on Tuesday – the last one ahead of the Federal Reserve's January 28 Open Market Committee meeting to decide interest rates.  Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday and the PPI and retail sales figures on Wednesday.

In Europe this week, the data schedule is light.  The UK GDP is out on Thursday.

In Asia, the big event is China’s trade figures on Wednesday, with expectations of a result showing slowing from 6 percent to 4 or 41/2 percent.  Japan releases the Economy Watchers survey, PPI, and the December bank lending survey on Wednesday.  

Finally, earnings season kicks off this week. We will be watching the US bank results closely as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock all report this week. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, January 11, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Myanmar holds the 2nd phase of its parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin holds parliamentary elections – the first since a coup attempt in December.

·       Naval exercises led by China and expected to include vessels from South Africa, Iran, and Russia will be held off the coast of South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 12, 2026

Global

·       The AIAA SciTech Forum 2026, a five-day aerospace R&D conference, begins in Orlando, Florida.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in Washington to discuss transatlantic relations.

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent is hosting a dinner in Washington, DC, of finance ministers from the G7 to discuss critical minerals.

·       Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi will visit the United States through January 18.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before an MNI webinar.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion with the CEO of Intercontinental Exchange.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the North Carolina Bankers Association Economic Forecast Forum.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics event organized by the Council on Foreign Relations.

·       USA Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn & Soy & Wheat (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is traveling to the United Arab Emirates for a working visit. He's expected to attend the signing of a landmark trade deal, marking Manila's first such pact with a Middle Eastern nation.

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will host South Korean President Lee Jae Myung for a summit in the ancient Japanese city of Nara. The talks will focus on economic and cultural cooperation and mark a continuation of diplomatic engagement by the historical rivals.

·       Today is Coming of Age Day in Japan, a public holiday. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (December)/ Household Spending (November)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (November)

·       India Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is on a two-day visit, including a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Ahmedabad. The tour will take place in Bengaluru, where Merz will meet German companies.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Asuncion, Paraguay, to sign the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement.

·       EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis participates in Critical Minerals Finance Ministerial dinner hosted by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington, D.C.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, will visit Zagreb, Croatia, where he will have bilateral meetings with the President, Zoran Milanović, the Prime Minister, Andrej Plenković, and the Speaker of Parliament, Gordan Jandroković.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey takes part in a meeting of the Bellagio Group 2026 at the Bank’s London headquarters, hosted by Clare Lombardelli, deputy governor, monetary policy.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat during a presentation of the euro yearbook 2025 at Instituto Español de Analistas in Madrid, Spain.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (November)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account (November)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran is supposed to be hosting the International AI Fair in Tehran, but it has been cancelled due to internal national protests.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 13, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

·       The World Health Organization (WHO) will launch two new reports calling for new taxes on sugary drinks and alcoholic beverages.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Greenland to meet with Danish officials over the issue of the US taking over Greenland.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Beijing, the first visit by a Canadian premier since 2017, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and security.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the CFA Society, Washington, DC.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem participates  (again) in moderated discussion on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before an MNI webinar.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (December)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI (December)/ Redbook (January/10)/ New Home Sales (September & October)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (January)/Monthly Budget Statement (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/09)                 

·       Canada Building Permits (November)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (December)

·       El Salvador PPI (December)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (December)

·       EARNINGS: Bank of New York Mellon, Delta Air Lines,  JPMorgan Chase 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q4/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (January)

·       Japan Current Account (November)/ Bank Lending (December)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (December)

·       China Vehicle Sales (December)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Paris, the Court of Appeal begins the appeal trial for French far-right leader Marine Le Pen over the misuse of EU funds.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (December)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Turkey Current Account (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Auto Production (December)/ Auto Sales (December)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (December)

·       France Budget Balance (November)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (November)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Future Energy Summit is set to begin in Abu Dhabi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, January 14, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is released.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the maintenance of international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The UN’s International Labour Organization (ILO) will release its Employment and Social Trends 2026 report, offering new insights into the current state and future prospects of global labor markets. 

·       Today is New Year’s in the Orthodox faith.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue its next rulings on January 14 as several major cases remain pending, including the legality of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs.  The decision was expected last Friday but now appears set for today.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Chamber of Commerce for Greater Philadelphia State of the Economy event.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech entitled “Regulations, the Supply Side, and Monetary Policy” at the Delphi Economic Forum Lecture, Athens, Greece.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in virtual town hall conversation hosted by the Wisconsin Bankers Association.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated discussion on the economy as part of the Atlanta Business Chronicle 2026 Economic Outlook event.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives opening remarks before “An Economy That Works for All: Financial Inclusion" event organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/09)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/09)/ PPI (October & November)/ Current Account Q3/ Retail Sales Control Group (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Existing Home Sales (December)/ Business Inventories (October)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/09)/Fed Beige Book

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (December)

·       EARNINGS: Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (December)/ Export Prices (December)

·       New Zealand Building Permits (November)

·       Australia Building Permits (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (December)/ New Yuan Loans (December)/ M2 Money Supply (December)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (December)/ Total Social Financing (December)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (December)/ Reuters Tankan Index (January)

·       India WPI Food Index (December)/ WPI Fuel (December)/ WPI Inflation (December)/ WPI Manufacturing (December)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Oman.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a  speech at the Spain Investors Day 2026 in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden gives a speech at Kings College London on “The Evolution of Resolution.”

·       Alan Taylor, external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, will speak at the National University of Singapore. Meanwhile, deputy governor, markets and banking, Dave Ramsden will speak at King’s College London.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (December)/ Current Account (November)

·       Hungary Construction Output (November)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Great Britain BoE Taylor Speech/ BoE Ramsden Speech

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Heads of State Meeting takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, January 15, 2026

Global

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of the launch of Wikipedia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

§  Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on a panel discussing stablecoins after the GENIUS Act at the Wharton Future of Finance Forum in Washington.

§  Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber Board of Directors meeting.

§  Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the Virginia Bankers Association/Virginia Chamber Financial Forecast.

§  Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks on the economy and monetary policy.

·       Brazil Retail Sales (November)/ Car Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (December)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (October)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (November)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (November)/ Wholesale Sales (November)

·       USA Export Prices (November)/ Import Prices (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (January)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/03)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (January)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/15)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (November)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/14)/ Import Prices (October)/ Export Prices (October)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       EARNINGS: BlackRock,  Goldman Sachs,  Morgan Stanley, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/10)/ PPI (December)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/10)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (November)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (December)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament’s Security and Defence Committee will take stock of the EU’s defense partnerships, including with the UK, Canada, Norway, South Korea, Japan, Moldova, Albania, North Macedonia, the US and Ukraine. It will adopt recommendations on how to align these relationships with the broader objectives of building a strong EU defense policy. MEPs are also expected to address relations with NATO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in an Exchange of Views on the outcomes of the ECB High-Level Task Force on Simplification at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Great Britian RICS House Price Balance (December)/ GDP (November)/ Goods Trade Balance (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Manufacturing Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Construction Output (November)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (December)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (December)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025

·       Romania Industrial Production (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (December)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (December)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/09)

·       Euro Area ECB Economic Bulletin/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Italy Industrial Production (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Serbia Current Account (November)/ Building Permits (November)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (December)/ Wholesale Prices (December)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Uganda holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (November)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

Friday, January 16, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A federal court hearing will be held for Tyler Robinson, charged with murder in the shooting death of Charlie Kirk.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Philip Jefferson speaks at the AIER Monetary Conference in Boca Raton, Florida.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech at the Outlook ’26 New England Economic Forum, Foxborough, Mass.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (November)/ PPI (November)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (November)/ Housing Starts (December)

·       USA NY Fed Services Activity Index (January)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/16)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (January)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Earnings:  M & T Bank, PNC Financial Services,  Regions Financial, Reliance Industries, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A South Korean court will render its verdict on former President Yoon Suk Yeol on charges of obstruction of justice following his failed attempt to declare martial law in late 2024.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (December)/ Food Inflation (December)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/09)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Services PMI (December) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is set to visit Japan and hold a summit with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for the first time.  Meloni will then head to South Korea on Saturday for a meeting with President Lee Jae Myung, marking the first state visit to the country by an Italian leader in 19 years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (December)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (December)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (December)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, January 17, 2026 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 18, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Qatar to meet with leaders to discuss bilateral investments.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds its presidential election. he president is elected for a five-year term with a two-term limit, has the discretionary power to dissolve parliament and presides over the consultative Council of State.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Awaiting Next Steps in Venezuela, Iran Is Rocked By Protests, South Korea’s President Visits China, and Markets Get Back to Work In Advance of Several Major Data Releases

January 4 - 11, 2026

The quiet of the Christmas and New Year holidays ended abruptly this weekend with President Trump’s decision to take military action against Venezuela, snatching its dictator, Nicholas Maduro, and demanding the oil-rich nation comply with the US.  There are more questions than answers at this point, but for markets, the biggest question is what happens to oil markets going forward.  Venezuela is the most oil-rich nation in the world with an estimated 300 billion proven oil reserves waiting to be tapped.  And it is also incredibly mineral-rich, ranging from gold to bauxite to iron ore.  It appears much depends on how Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez responds to President Trump’s demands and how long the Venezuelan military is willing to stand (and can stand) in defense of the regime.

But our view is that what is happening in Venezuela is going to have much larger ramifications elsewhere in the Hemisphere, particularly in Cuba, which has played an outsized role in advising – and benefiting from - Maduro’s regime (as well as that of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez).  Since President Trump began to ratchet up pressure on Venezuela, Cuba’s economy has begun to crumble.  Venezuela’s 100,000 barrels of oil shipped to Cuba daily were effectively cut off, resulting in widespread blackouts in Cuba, loss of water supplies, and massive food shortages.

Meanwhile, another major oil-producing country is in trouble, too:  Iran is experiencing a growing and increasingly violent national protest movement – the largest since 2022 – as the country’s economy plummets and hyper-inflation skyrockets.  Iran’s currency lost 42 percent of its value in 2025 (1.3 million rials to the dollar – making it the worst-performing currency in the world)  while official government figures show inflation exceeding 42 percent in December alone.  All this comes as Tehran is experiencing the worst drought in half a century, resulting in rolling water cutoffs and weak tap pressure for the capital’s 10 million inhabitants, adding further pressure on the government.

In Asia this week, the big event is South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s visit to China.  It marks the second time in two months that Lee will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is aimed at improving both diplomatic and commercial ties between the two nations.  Additionally, Lee is expected to ask Xi to help broker better relations with North Korea.  But it is unclear how successful Xi will be – North Korea conducted provocative ballistic missiles as President Lee was traveling to Beijing, a clear sign of North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un’s disapproval of Lee meeting with Xi.

In Europe this week, leaders of the “Coalition of the Willing” (EU, UK, Canada, and other nations supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia) will meet in Paris to finalize security commitments to Kyiv as part of efforts to secure a peace agreement with Russia.  What we will be watching for are commitments from EU peacekeeping forces to serve in a possible buffer zone between Russian and Ukrainian forces, as well as pledges of military equipment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets are looking to the US jobs report on Friday with expectations that non-farm payrolls will rise by more than 50,000.  Also this week, the ADP and JOLTS reports and the ISM Services report on Wednesday with the ISM Manufacturing report out on Monday.  Plus, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey is out on Friday.

In Europe, the Eurozone CPIs are out this week.  Germany’s and France’s CPIs are out on Tuesday, and the entire Eurozone on Wednesday.   Germany releases factory orders on Thursday, industrial production figures on Friday, and its trade balance on Friday.

In Asia this week, China reports both CPI and PPI on Friday, while Japan releases wage data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, January 4, 2026

Global

·       The chair of the BRICS rotates from Brazil to India for 2026.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA Fed Kashkari Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung begins a state visit to China that goes through January 7.  It will be the second meeting between President Lee and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the last two months and comes as China-Japanese relations have sunk to a new low, offering South Korea new opportunities to expand trade relations with China.

·       Ireland’s Prime Minister Michael Martin will visit China, the first such visit by an Irish Prime Minister since 2012. 

·       The 7th round of the Pakistan-China Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue takes place in Beijing.  The discussions center on expanded trade and mutual security goals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 5, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on the US attack on Venezuela and arrest of Nicolas Maduro.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate reconvenes after the Christmas/New Year holidays.

·       President Trump is expected to have a telephone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (December)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (December)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (December)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (December)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)     

·       China RatingDog Composite & Service PMI (December)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (November)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The British Parliament returns from holiday break.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (November)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (November)/ Mortgage Approvals (November)/ Mortgage Lending (November)/ M4 Money Supply (November)/ Net Lending to Individuals (November)

·       Serbia PPI (December)

·       France New Car Registrations (December)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyadh Bank PMI (December)

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision; Israel’s Tel Aviv Stock Exchange shifts its trading days to a Monday-Friday schedule as it seeks to appeal to international investors

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)

Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House of Representatives reconvenes after the Christmas/New Year holidays.  It is also the 5th anniversary of the January 6th attack on the US Capitol.

·       The Consumer Electronics Show takes place in Las Vegas through January 9 bringing together leaders from across the global technology landscape to unveil their latest releases.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak to the Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast 2026 in Raleigh, North Carolina.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)/Redbook (January/03)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/02)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)         

·       Japan Monetary Base

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (November)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Direct Investment (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The national security advisors of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” will meet in Paris, France to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the state of play on peace negotiations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel at a conference entitled "The international monetary system and international payments. Recent trends and challenges ahead" organized by Banque de France and the Ministry of Economics, Finance, and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty in the context of the French G7 Presidency in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (December)/ New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (December)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (December)

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (December)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Italy S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ New Car Registrations (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Israel Business Confidence (December)/Tourist Arrivals (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Global

·       The Christian Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Club of Canada holds its annual 2026 Economic Outlook Breakfast with the chief economists of RBC, TD Bank, CIBC, BMO, Scotiabank, and the National Bank.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the California Bankers Association Bank President’s 2026 Seminar (virtual).

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/26)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/02)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (December/26)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (January/02)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/26)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/02)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (December/26)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/02)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ ISM Services PMI (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ Factory Orders (October)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (October)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (December)/ ISM Services Business Activity (December)/ ISM Services Employment (December)/ ISM Services New Orders (December)/ ISM Services Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/02)            

·       Colombia Exports (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Inflation Rate (November)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (November)/ Building Permits (November)/ CPI (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (November)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ BoJ JGB Purchase    

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/26)/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 2026-25

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Indonesia           Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Cyprus assumes the rotating EU Presidency for the first half of 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (November)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployed Persons (December)/ Unemployment Change (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)

·       Hungary PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Consumer Confidence (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Flash (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Thursday, January 8, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· California Governor Gavin Newsom delivers the State of the State address.

·       The Canadian Club holds its 49th Annual Economic Outlook Lunch in Toronto.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile Inflation Rate (December)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/03)/ Used Car Prices (December)/ Wholesale Inventories (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/02)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/08)/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/07)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (November)

·       Colombia PPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan to hold meeting of regional branch managers and issue quarterly report.

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/27)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 1st EU-Jordan Summit takes place in Amman, Jordan.  The Summit brings together EU and Jordanian leaders to discuss how to strengthen EU-Jordanian economic and security interests.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will attend,

·       Norwegian Offshore Directorate to publish five-year outlook for the country’s oil and gas production and investments

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at Vocento's 2nd Edition of Next Spain Global in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany Factory Orders (November)

·       Romania PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (December)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)/ SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France Imports/ Exports/     Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (December)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)

• Ghana Inflation Rate (December)

Friday, January 9, 2026

Global

·       The BRICS+ members hold joint maritime drills off the coast of South Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual 2026 Regional Economic Conditions Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin gives an economic outlook speech to the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum in Baltimore, Maryland.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (December)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (December)/ Auto Production (December)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Wages (December)

·       USA Building Permits (September and October)/ Housing Starts (September and October)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Government Payrolls (December)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (December)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (December)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (January)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (January/09)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (November)

·       Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November) 

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (December/26)/ Deposit Growth (December/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/02)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (December)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (November)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech at the biennial conference on "The Danish Economy in a Changing World" organized by the Danish Economic Society in Kolding, Denmark.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (November)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (November)

·       France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)        

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Spain Industrial Production (November)/ Business Confidence (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Italy Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (November)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (November)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (December)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 10, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 11, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin holds parliamentary elections – the first since a coup attempt in December.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

US – Russia Negotiations with Ukraine Continue, ASEAN Leaders to Hold Emergency Meeting on Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict, the US Puts Further Pressure on Venezuela, and Global Markets Are Quiet This Week

The world is quickly sliding into the Christmas week, hoping for peace and goodwill everywhere.  Two examples of that are the ongoing talks led by US Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who held yet another round of talks with Russian negotiators in Miami yesterday, seeking a Ukraine peace deal.  While the Trump Administration is suggesting that some small gains are being made, their Russian counterparts say nothing is moving.  And from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address and question-and-answer call-in session last week, Russia has no intention of ending this war until it has achieved total victory over Ukraine.  More talks are being scheduled in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers are gathering in Kuala Lumpur this week to see if they can de-escalate the growing conflict between Cambodia and Thailand.  Recall President Trump announced earlier this month that he had negotiated a ceasefire, but that has since broken down as the two sides blame each other for renewed fighting on the border.   At the time of this writing, reports indicate that the two sides have again agreed to meet to discuss a new ceasefire.

Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to escalate, with the US Naval and Coast Guard forces seizing a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.  All three tankers are known to be flying false flags of operation and being part of a larger Venezuelan black market oil sales in contravention of sanctions on the country.  One interesting aspect of the US pressure campaign is how this is negatively impacting Cuba, which has been a strong supporter – politically and militarily – of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s regime.  As the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, the Cuban regime’s economy is close to collapse, with widespread blackouts and an estimated 25 percent of the population having fled the country in recent months.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, with the Christmas holiday, there isn't much that markets are watching for in terms of data releases or central bank action.  The big events in the US will be the release of the delayed Q3 GDP, October durable goods orders, and November industrial production, all coming out on Tuesday.   Also out on Tuesday will be the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for December.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will give a speech on Christmas Day on the Japanese economic outlook.   And in Europe, there are no significant data releases scheduled.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week.  We hope you have a very Merry Christmas!

Sunday, December 21, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian and US negotiators, led by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, meet in Miami to talk further about a peace deal in Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting an informal meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States in St. Petersburg through December 22.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

·       Today is São Tomé Day, a national holiday in the African nation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Economic Activity (October)

·       Canada PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (October)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia hosts a special ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting on Thailand–Cambodia border tensions.

·       China's legislature will convene through Dec. 27 to consider 14 bills, including revisions to the Foreign Trade Law that would expand trade countermeasures.

· Japan’s Niigata Assembly meets to vote on restarting reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear plant.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q3/   Inflation Rate (November)

·       India Infrastructure Output (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Current Account Q3/ Business Investment Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)/ Central Government Debt (November)

·       Greece Current Account (October)

·       Italy PPI (November)

·       Poland Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, a national holiday.

·       The annual Africa and Diaspora Integration Summit convenes in Lagos, Nigeria.

·       The  International Conference on African Studies and Global Africa meets in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security, including the rising tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Office of the US Trade Representative is expected to deliver a Section 301 investigative report on Chinese domination of the semiconductor industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (December)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (October)/ GDP Prel (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Corporate Profits Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Redbook (December/20)/ Industrial Production (October and November)/ Capacity Utilization (October and November)/ Manufacturing Production (October and November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Shipments Index (December)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/19)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (October)/ Imports (October)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q3

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

·       Argentina Current Account Q3

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the birthday of Japanese Emperor Akihito, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Index (October)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (November)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany Import Prices (November)

·       Hungary Current Account Q3

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Federal Government is closed per an Executive Order by President Trump in celebration of Christmas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile PPI (November)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (November)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/19)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/20)/ 15- and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

·       Canada Budget Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Economic Index (October)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/12)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (October)/ Industrial Production (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 25, 2025 

Global

·       It is Christmas Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to the Councilors of Keidanren.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/20)/ Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Federal Government is shut in honor of Christmas per an Executive Order issued by President Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (November)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q3

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/26)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (October)

·       Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Vietnam Mobility Show will take place in Hanoi through December 28 with a focus on electric cars and motorbikes including hybrids. Companies are expected to offer discounts and test drives, while exhibitors will provide demonstrations on charging electric vehicles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production Prel (November)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore           Industrial Production (November)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (December/12)/ Deposit Growth (December/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ivory Coast holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Myanmar holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Central African Republic holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Guinea holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Europe Steps Up Efforts For a Ukraine Peace Deal, Russian President Putin Holds His Annual Call-In Show, Chile Holds Its Presidential Election Runoff, and EU,  and Major Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

December 14 - 21, 2025

The Christmas and New Year holidays are just around the corner but the geopolitical calendar remains quite busy, especially with regard to all things Ukraine This week, European Union leaders will gather in Brussels for a European Council meeting to discuss the latest efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine, while also seeking a solution to Ukraine’s urgent funding needs in 2026 and beyond.  

That meeting is on December 18 & 19, and after a new, more urgent meeting on Monday in Berlin, called by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and featuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and numerous European heads of state, and potentially US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. 

In advance of Monday's meeting, President Zelensky has said he is ready to drop his demand for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe.  We will be watching for what Russian President Vladimir Putin might say a possible peace deal during his annual televised event  Friday.  That event blends his annual press conference with a nationwide call-in show where he supposedly takes unscripted questions from Russian citizens.

Also this week, Chile holds its presidential election runoff on Sunday.  Conservative candidate Jose Antonio Kast is expected to win against left-wing candidate Jeannette Jara, who is seeking to replace her political ally, current President Gabriel Boric.  While votes are still being counted, it appears Kast has won almost 60 percent of the vote.

Looking at the global economic and financial markets outlook, it is a big week for central bank meetings.  The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Norway are all meeting to decide on interest rates.

Looking at major economic reports coming out this week, the US delayed jobs and inflation figures from November are finally being released.  Also out in the US this week will be October retail sales figures. And Canada releases consumer inflation numbers on Monday.

Looking to Asia, China will release retail sales and industrial production figures on Monday.  The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of business is out on Monday, and the November CPI figures are on Friday. 

And turning to Europe, the UK releases labor market figures on Tuesday and inflation numbers on Wednesday.  Germany releases the Ifo survey on Wednesday and consumer confidence numbers on Friday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara.  Kast is expected to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 15, 2025

Global

·       The OECD is expected to publish its G20 GDP Growth Report.

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: Leadership for Peace. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s new requirement that all H1B and H4 visa applicants make their social media profiles available for review goes into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will give a speech on the inflation outlook at Columbia University, New York, New York.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in an economic growth discussion before an event organized by the New Jersey Bankers Association.

·       Brazil BC-BR Economic Activity (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI Median (November)/ Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December)/NAHB Housing Market Index (December)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong’s High Court is scheduled to deliver its verdict on the national security case against media executive Jimmy Lai.  He is facing the prospect of life in prison.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia’s head of financial stability, Andrea Brischetto, speaks at the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, which runs through December 16.

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (November)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

·       China House Price Index (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ FDI (YTD) (November)

·       India WPI Food Index (November)/ WPI Fuel (November)/ WPI Manufacturing (November)/ WPI Inflation (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q3

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (November)/ GDP (November)

·       Sri Lanka Services & Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is convening a meeting in Berlin, Germany of European, NATO, and US leaders to discuss advancements to the Ukraine peace process.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the latest updates on the peace talks.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels.

·       The EU-Angola Ministerial Meeting begins in Brussels.

·       The EU-Lebanon Association Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (November)

·       Romania Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts/ Producer & Import Prices (November)             

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (November)/ Auto Production (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Construction Output Q3

·       Serbia Building Permits (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September & October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Global

·       The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) General Council meeting begins in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (on the 2334 resolution).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal event in Quebec.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Non-Farm Payrolls (October & November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Average Hourly Earnings (October & November)/ Government Payrolls (October & November)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (October & November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (November)/ Redbook (December/13)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Business Inventories (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/12)/ Building Permits (September & October)/ Housing Starts (September, October, & November)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh celebrates Victory Day, marking independence from Pakistan in 1971.

·       Today is Kazakhstan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks at the AusPayNet Summit in Sydney.

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (November)/ Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update          / Credit Card Spending (November)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/16)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)     

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Singapore           Non-Oil Exports (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q4/ Cash Remittances (October)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is scheduled to vote on the compromise EU-Mercosur Agreement package.  However, France has thrown a last-minute wrench into the schedule, asking for a delay in the vote, which may sink the entire deal.

·       The 24th Accession Conference with Montenegro begins in Brussels.

·       The EU Environment Council meets in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Commission is likely to announce it will soften the bloc’s emissions targets after mounting pressure from automakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the 7th BdP biannual Forum on Regulatory & European affairs B20 in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at a green finance research event in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (October)/ Claimant Count Change (November)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ZEW Current Conditions (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Italy Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (November)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Bahrain National Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa celebrates the Day of Reconciliation, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on the Middle East (Yemen) followed by consultations – the Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on 2745 sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on SC subsidiary organs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s FX Market Structure Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a discussion on the economic outlook before the Gwinnett County Chamber of Commerce.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Yale University CEO Summit, New York, New York.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/12)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Business Inventories (October)

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (October)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Semicon Japan begins in in Tokyo.  The even brings together more than 1,200 tech companies and organizations to show off the latest advancements in technology and AI.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q4/ Current Account Q3

·       Japan Machinery Orders (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (November)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (December)/ Lending Facility Rate (December)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Western Balkans Summit begins in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI Input (November)/ PPI Output (November)/ Retail Price Index (November)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)         

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (December)/ Ifo Current Conditions (December)/ Ifo Expectations (December)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ Wage Growth Q3

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (October)/ Residential Property Prices (October)

·       Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Belarus GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 18, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (ONWAS), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will vote on draft resolutions to renew mandates of -UNDOF -MONUSCO – AUSSOM – CTE.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)/ Average Weekly Earnings (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December)/ Philly Fed Employment (December)/ Philly Fed New Orders (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/12)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (December)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/17)/ CB Leading Index (October & November)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (October)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Hainan Free Trade Port opens, making it the largest free trade zone in China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/13)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)        

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (November)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets in Brussels through December 19.  EU national leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine, Gaza, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, and next steps on EU enlargement.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Meets to decide on Interest Rates; ECB Press Conference

·       The Bank of England meets to make an Interest Rate Decision and releases Meeting Minutes.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at DIW conference "Fiscal Policy, Debt, and Inequality" in Berlin, Germany.

·       UK British Retail Consortium December Consumer Sentiment Monitor

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)

·       France Business Confidence (December)/ Business Climate Indicator (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November)/ Employment Growth (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (October)

·       Serbia Current Account (October)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/12)

·       Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (November)

Friday, December 19, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Libya sanctions. This will be followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for the Department of Justice to release the files related to its investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, after Congress passed a bill compelling its release.

·       The US Congress is scheduled to break for its Christmas recess.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q3/ Private Spending Q3

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Argentina           Consumer Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       USA Existing Home Sales (November)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/19)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Colombia Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japan-Central Asia Summit begins in Tokyo.  It is the first-ever summit of leaders from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan with Japanese leadership and is aimed at improving greater trade among all the nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets on Interest rates.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ ANZ Business Confidence (December)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (November

·       Australia Housing Credit (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)/ Commodity Prices (December)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/12)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold a televised event that blends his annual press conference with a nationwide call-in show.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion organized by the Aspen Institute Italia in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Economics Winter Workshop organized by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JAN/ PPI (November)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (November)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (November)/ CBI Distributive Trades (December)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (October)

·       France PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q3

·       Euro Area ECB Wage Tracker Q4/ Current Account (October)/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (December)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy Business Confidence (December)/ Current Account (October)/ Industrial Sales (October)/ Construction Output (October)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (December)/ PPI (November)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Slovakia Current Account (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (November)

Saturday, December 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Mercosur Summit of leaders from the South American trading bloc countries due to meet and possibly sign the Mercosur-EU trade deal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 21, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s New National Security Strategy Sends Shock Waves, EU European Ministers Meet in Ukraine, and the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Other Central Banks Decide on Interest Rates this Week

December 7 - 14, 2025

The big geopolitical event this coming week is not what is going to happen but rather what happened last week: The release of the Trump Administration’s U.S. National Security Strategy, released this past Wednesday.  The document – which is proving to be a geopolitical earthquake - is highly critical of Europe, blaming the continent and “other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife…”

The strategy also calls for an end to the expansion of NATO and criticizes Europe for “unrealistic expectations” on how to resolve the Ukraine War and has many wondering what the future commitment of the US to NATO actually will be.  

From a financial market perspective, the strategy makes clear President Trump is determined to preserve and grow U.S. financial market domination globally, stating “The United States boasts the world’s leading financial and capital markets, which are pillars of American influence that afford policymakers significant leverage and tools to advance America’s national security priorities…”

Meanwhile – or in spite of the strategy – EU European Affairs Ministers will be gathering in Lviv, Ukraine this week to discuss Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU.  Efforts to bring Ukraine into the bloc have faltered but this meeting is seen as likely jump-starting the talks again.

The big events this coming week will all be taking place in central banks.   The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets this week and is expected to cut rates again.  Also meeting this week to discuss interest rates is the Reserve Bank of Canada, the Swiss Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Turkey’s Central Bank.

Looking at the overall economic and financial radar screen for the coming week, it is a fairly quiet week globally.   Starting in Asia, China reports on its trade balance on Monday and inflation (CPI and PPI) on Wednesday.  Japan releases its Economy Watchers survey for November on Monday.

Turning to Europe, the UK reports Industrial Production on Monday and October GDP on Friday.  Germany reports trade figures on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 8, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Industry and Tech Ministerial meeting takes place in Quebec, Canada.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Myanmar. This afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on OSCE Chairperson-in-Office.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit begins in New York and runs through Tuesday.  White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Auto Production & Exports (November)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Costa Rica          Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Uzbekistan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (October)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q3/ Bank Lending (November)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (November)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Markets and Industry) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will be receive a presentation on the ’Annual Overview Report on Simplification, Implementation and Enforcement’, followed by an exchange of views.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through December 9.  Ministers will discuss migration and asylum policy.

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul travels to China for discussion on steel and rare earth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give a guest lecture on "The transformation of money: technological disruption and the future of financial services" at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Industrial Production (October)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (October)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 9th Pan African Congress will be held in Lome, Togo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (November)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 25th NATO Parliamentary Assembly Transatlantic Forum takes place in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (December/06)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September and October)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/05)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is expected to begin this week.  The CEWC is expected to ratify the decisions of the 4th Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party held this past October. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates and holds a press conference.

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Private House Approvals (October)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (November)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at the ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)/ BOE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Ireland Construction PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Tanzania, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US government begins auctioning for oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets today and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell at 2:00 p.m.

·       The Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates followed by a press conference with Bank of Canada Head Tiff Macklin.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/05)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/

·       Brazil’s Central Bank meets to decide interest rates.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

China’s Premier Li Qiang holds the “1+10” Dialogue with the heads of major international economic organizations including President of the New Development Bank Dilma Rousseff, President of the World Bank Ajay Banga, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development Rebeca Grynspan, Director-General of the International Labour Organization Gilbert F. Houngbo, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Chair of the Financial Stability Board Andrew Bailey, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Jin Liqun, and Deputy Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Frantisek Ruzicka.

·       Australia’s new social media age ban for under-16s comes into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (October)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Japan PPI (November)

·       Australia RBA Chart Pack

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)

·       China Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/28)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (November)

·       Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs in Lviv, Ukraine through December 11.

·       UK  Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears before the Treasury Committee in Westminster to give evidence on her recent Budget speech.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a  keynote interview with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf on "What are the futures of the euro and the dollar as global currencies, and what are the opportunities for the digital euro?" at 9th Edition of The Global Boardroom: "Achieving growth in a disrupted world" in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery chairs a panel discussion at ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in panel discussion at the 20th High-level meeting on financial stability and regulatory and supervisory priorities jointly organized by AMF-BCBS-FSI in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area           ECB Machado Speech

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

·       Italy Industrial Production (October)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (November)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

·       Kuwait Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Interest Rate Decision

·       Qatar Interest Rate Decision

·       United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       South Africa Retail Sales (October)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on UNOCA/LRA. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC Metting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This will be followed by a TCC Meting on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

·       OPEC publishes its monthly oil production report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Falkland Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (October)/ Business Confidence (December)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/10)/ PPI (October and November)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (November)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (November)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ecadour Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q3

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q4/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/06)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/06)

·       Australia Employment Change (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss macroeconomic developments and members states’ draft budgetary plans.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through December 12.

·       Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the Covid-19 inquiry in London.

·       Portugal’s two main trade unions, the CGTP and UGT, call a nationwide general strike against the center-right government’s proposal to ease dismissals, expand outsourcing and cut certain compassionate leave entitlements, including bereavement leave for miscarriages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the Arab Monetary Fund, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Institute high-level meeting in Dubai.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (November)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)/ Auto Production (November)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (October)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area           ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (October)/ Mining Production (October)/ Building Permits (October)/         Manufacturing Production (October)  

Friday, December 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to vote on 2713 Sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti sanctions, as well as consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center Roundtable Series Program.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation before hybrid 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (October)

·       USA Fed Paulson Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/12)

·       Canada Building Permits (October)/ Capacity Utilization Q3/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)/ Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import and Export Prices (November)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (November)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (November)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       India Inflation Rate (November)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/28)/ Deposit Growth (November/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)

·       China Vehicle Sales (November)/ New Yuan Loans (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (November)/ Total Social Financing (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss Customs reform and the single currency package as well as imports of small parcels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (November)/ Current Account (October)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Current Account (October)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Construction Output (October)/ GDP (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)           

·       Hungary Construction Output (October)/ Industrial Production (October)          

·       France Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Jamahuri Day in Kenya, otherwise known as Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q4/ SACCI Business Confidence (October and November)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, December 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara.  Kast is expected to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.