The Global Week Ahead

The US to Announce New Sanctions on Iran, Pakistan’s Army Chief Carries New US Message to Iran, US-Canadian Trade Talks Collapse, Central Bankers Gather in Wyoming, and Is Lagarde Leaving the ECB?

August 23 - 30, 2026

The last week of August is going to be a busy one both geopolitically and for global markets.  On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to hold a news conference announcing a new round of economic sanctions on Iran President Trump has billed as the “toughest sanctions in history.”  It is expected the sanctions will apply to a number of Iran’s neighboring countries in an attempt to crush what is left of Iran’s economy (the US dollar rose to a record 1.98 million Iranian rials in Iran’s open markets on Sunday. The British pound reached 2.7 million and the Euro reached 2.3 million).

 Iran has called any new US sanctions “economic terrorism” and is threatening to militarily target any country that complies with them.  The big question is whether the sanctions will go after Chinese banks and Chinese “teapot” oil refineries which specialize in Iranian oil and are seen as a major funder of Iran’s economy.  Our sources tell us it is highly unlikely China in any way will be included out of White House concern it will derail Chinese President Xi Jinping’s scheduled visit to Washington in September.  

One new development emerged this weekend: It has been announced that on Monday, Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff, Asim Munir, will travel to Tehran for talks with senior Iranian officials.  While the visit is being billed as an effort to “strengthen bilateral cooperation” and bolster Pakistan’s efforts to “promote peace in the region,” there are reports Munir is also carrying a new message from the US that may signal President Trump’s willingness to pursue a new round of peace talks.

Meanwhile, markets were stunned late Friday when news broke that trade talks between Canada and the US broke down and President Trump is moving forward with new 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods effective Saturday. 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada  is now “at war” over trade with the US and will impose new dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on September 8th.   It appears the talks broke down when President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick demanded a new set of concessions from Canada at the last minute as Carney was already facing serious political constraints at home on what had already been agreed upon.  Among them was a demand from the US to have “exclusive access” to Canada’s critical minerals and President Trump’s belief that French language provisions on products in French-speaking Quebec are actually used as trade barriers (which he wanted eliminated).

What happens next is anyone’s guess. Republican lawmakers were split in their reaction to the announcement, with many border state Republicans asking the White House to quickly reconsider entering into new talks. 

Also of note this week: Iceland is holding a referendum on whether to resume negotiations to join the European Union.  Talks had started in 2009 but were suspended in 2013.  Polls suggest the vote is going to be close with 53 percent of voters wanting to reopen negotiations and 47 opposed – but the issue of fishing rights is a major stumbling block for ultimate approval of the country joining.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, the big event this week is the annual Jackson Hole Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank.  Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give a major speech on the economic outlook on Friday.  But on the sidelines, we think there will be significant discussion on the future of the European Central Bank with news breaking over the weekend that ECB President Christine Lagarde is preparing to step down and is “ready to serve” as the new chair of the World Economic Forum (WEF).  Reports that she would take the job have circulated for a while, despite Lagarde previously dismissing them.

Also this week, the G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting takes place Saturday and Sunday in Ashville, North Carolina. The meeting takes place in advance of the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial being held August 31st through September 1st.   Federal Reserve Board Governor Warsh is also scheduled to attend and speak.

Looking at the major economic indicators, in the US, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is out on Tuesday as is July new home sales. Then on Wednesday,  the July PCE reports on personal income, spending and durable goods orders. 

In Asia, Japan’s August Tokyo CPI and July labor market data reports are out on Friday. China releases July industrial profits on Thursday.

In Europe, The ECB’s July meeting account is released on Thursday. We will also see the French and Spanish August CPI prints are out on Friday.  Germany’s Ifo August survey is out Tuesday as is Q2 GDP estimates. France’s consumer confidence report is out Tuesday, Germany’s consumer confidence on Thursday, and Italy’s on Friday.

Finally, earnings reports are still coming out and the big one markets are watching this week is Nvidia’s on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 23, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa travels to Singapore and then Vietnam as part of a broader Asia trip.  Today, he concluded a visit to China where he met with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and other senior officials.  The China meetings – his second visit to China since June – were focused on finding a way to resolve the suspension of 14 Ecuadorian shrimp processors and to secure fresh investments by China in energy and mining in Ecuador.  The Singapore visit is aimed at improving trade and using Singapore as a greater gateway for Ecuadorian products in the wider ASEAN market.  The Vietnam visit is aimed at generally improving bilateral trade and agricultural exports.

·       Mexican Deputy Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco Alvarez travels to South Korea for meetings through August 25th.  They will discuss energy security and other security issues.

·       The Panamerican Congress concludes in Montevideo, Uruguay.  This is a meeting of Progressive lawmakers from all over the Western Hemisphere, including a large contingent of US Democratic lawmakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah will pay an official visit to China through August 24th for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  They are expected to discuss the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

·       In Kazakhstan, legislative elections are held for all 145 seats of their  parliament (Kurultai).

·       Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will make an annual address to mark the independence of the city-state. Seen as his keynote political speech for the year, Wong is expected to address how his government can further support families as the Southeast Asian financial hub struggles with raising its birth rate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar will be in Moscow for two days of meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov.  Jaishankar will co-chair the 27th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC).  Jaishankar’s meeting with Lavrov is expected to focus on regional and global issues – this is the second meeting between the two ministers in the last month.  Tensions between the two countries recently became elevated when in late July four Indian sailors were killed by a Russian missile strike on a merchant vessel in the Black Sea.

·       Today is National Flag Day in Ukraine. 

·       The Stockholm International Water Institute holds its World Water Week Conference in Stockholm, Sweden through August 27th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu in Paris, France.   The Crown Prince last visited Paris in 2023.  The leaders will discuss ways to expand economic partnerships and ways of returning stability in the Middle East in the face of the Iran War and the ongoing military activities in Lebanon and Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 24, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan.

·       The ONS International Energy Conference begins in Stavanger, Norway.  The event focuses on geopolitics, energy security and climate issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce additional economic sanctions on Iran.  Iranian leaders have threatened a military response to whatever the US imposes. Markets are watching the announcement closely to see if the sanctions will include Chinese “teapot” oil refineries and Chinese banks involved in processing Iranian oil production.

·       Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Van Thang travels to the US to a participate in the Columbia University Vietnam Leadership Program.  He will then travel to Washington for meetings with US officials and business leaders.

·       Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov travels to the US for meetings on a variety of defense technology projects.  Fedorov was ousted as Defense Minister by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in July. His meetings may include a meeting with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.

·       The Nuclear Energy Conference & Expo (NECX) begins in Dallas, Texas, bringing together utilities, advanced reactor developers, regulators, policymakers and investors to discuss the industry’s future. Continuing until Thursday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivers most recent speech, “The Mysterious U.S. Economy" before the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce “Eggs & Issues" event.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)

·       Chile PPI (July)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Woodside Energy

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Jordan’s King Abdullah II concludes a week-long state visit to China.

·       Today is the last day of Vietnam’s extraordinary National Assembly session. During the session, the body approved an agreement related to the country's first nuclear power plant project in Ninh Thuan province, as well as special mechanisms to resolve obstacles facing some wind and solar power projects. Lawmakers are also scheduled to vote on proposals to establish Quang Ninh and Bac Ninh as centrally governed cities, along with special policies for projects supporting APEC 2027 on Phu Quoc island.

·       A cross-party group of Japanese legislators are expected to travel to Beijing for meetings through August 27th in a bid to help thaw tensions between China and Japan.

·       The APEC Food Security Ministerial meeting takes in Hangzhou, China.

·       The Silk Road Finance and Technology Forum begins in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and runs through August 26th. The Forum is the annual gathering for Central Asian economies.

·       Hyundai Motor workers are expected to hold a four-hour strike at plants nationwide in South Korea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       EARNINGS: XPeng Inc, PDD Holdings Inc., Sinopec (first-half earnings)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska will participate remotely in a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, co-hosted by the UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

·       Today is Independence Day in Ukraine, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Aino Bunge joins a panel discussion on private capital markets in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir will travel to Tehran on Monday at the head of an official delegation. Baghaei said the visit was aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation and continuing Pakistan’s efforts to promote peace and security in the region. Munir is scheduled to hold talks with senior Iranian officials during the visit.  He is reportedly carrying a new message from the US on possible peace talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Flag Day in Liberia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of International Peace and Security - Food Under Fire: The Security Council’s Role in Mitigating Global and Local Food Crises. World Food Program Acting Executive Director Carl Skau will be briefing alongside the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Carolina Senate run-off election between Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman (R-SC) is held.

·       Oklahoma holds gubernatorial primary run-off elections.

·       Today is Independence Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President gives a speech entitled "The Mysterious U.S. Economy" before the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance, Charlotte, North Carolina.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (August)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (August/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (June)/ House Price Index (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (August)/ New Home Sales (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (August)/ Money Supply (July)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/21)/ Building Permits (July)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

·       Mexico Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (July)

·       EARNINGS: Scotiabank, BMO, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Intuit, Zoom, Select Quote

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kuwait Foreign Minister Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah travels from China to South Korea for meetings with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun.  It is the first trip by a Kuwaiti foreign minister to the country since 2007.   Kuwait is South Korea’s 5th largest crude oil supplier and 4th overseas construction market for South Korea globally. They are expected to focus on energy security and the Iran War.

·       Indonesia hosts the annual Super Garuda Shield military exercises.  For more than two weeks, more than 3,000 military personal from Indonesia, the US, Australia, Japan, the Netherlands, Canada, South Korea, Timor Leste, India, Singapore, New Zealand, Brazil, Italy, Laos, and Cambodia will participate.

·       China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will hold a session through August 28th in Beijing.  Agenda items include draft laws such as the Medical Security Law, Enterprise Bankruptcy Law amendments, and proposed changes to the Banking Supervision and Administration Law, plus a review of national economic and social development plan implementation and the state budget so far this year.

·       The Inaugural Singapore-Vietnam Strategic Dialogue begins in Singapore.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

·       China National People's Congress

·       Australia RBA Jacobs Speech

·       Japan Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Vatican’s Foreign Minister, Archbishop Paul Gallagher, travels to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.  He will be in Moscow through August 28th.  The purpose of the meetings is to discuss a variety of diplomatic and ecumenical issues, including the Ukraine War.  Gallagher was recently in Ukraine (July)

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Ifo Business Climate (August)/ Ifo Current Conditions (August)/ Ifo Expectations (August)

·       France Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Spain PPI (July)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Lego (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (June)

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, including the Palestinian question.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will hold its International High-level Forum to launch the Atomic Technologies Licensed for Applications at Sea (ATLAS) initiative in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (August/21)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/21)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/21)/ Durable Goods Orders (July)/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2/ Personal Income (July)/ Personal Spending (July)/ Corporate Profits Q2/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp (July)/ GDP Price Index 2nd Est Q2/ PCE Price Index (July)/ PCE Prices 2nd Est Q2/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (July)/ GDP Sales 2nd Est Q2/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (July)/ Real Consumer Spending 2nd Est Q2/ Real Personal Spending (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/21)/ Fed Barkin Speech

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (August)

·       EARNINGS: Nvidia, National Bank (Canada), EQB (Canada), Kohl’s, Dycom, Williams-Sonoma, JMS Smucker Co., Nutanix, Synopsys, CrowdStrike, Salesforce

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia and Australia will hold their 10th “2+2” Foreign and Defense Ministers meeting in Melbourne.

·       The Nikkei Asia Forum Sydney 2026 is held.  The event convenes high-level government, business and diplomatic figures to discuss key issues confronting Australia-Japan relations and broader developments in the region. Speakers include the secretary of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the chair of Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board, the chair of Export Finance Australia, and the country's former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, as well as key figures from major banks, energy companies, hospitality and investment firms.

·       The Thailand Focus 2026 Conference is held in Bangkok, with Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas among the scheduled speakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)/ Construction Work Done Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (July)/ CPI (July)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (July)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       China National People's Congress

·       Singapore Industrial Production (July)

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank's Symposium "Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ SNB Martin Speech

·       UK CBI Distributive Trades (August)/ Car Production (July)

·       Russia Industrial Production (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Prudential

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins and runs through August 29th.  This year’s theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Syria, followed by consultations on the Middle East.

·       The BRICS Contact Group on Economic and Trade Issues holds a virtual meeting. 

·       The BRICS Working Group on Environment meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Thomas Barkin participates in panel before the Greensboro Chamber of Commerce "State of Our Community" event in Greensboro, North Carolina.

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/22)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (July)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/15)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/22)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (August)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/27)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/27)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/26)

·       Brazil Current Account (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Current Account Q2/Average Weekly Earnings (June)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (July)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (July)

·       EARNINGS: CIBC, Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, Best Buy, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Hormel, Burlington, Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Gap

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks at a meeting of local business leaders in Saitama, Japan.

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/22)/BoJ JGB Purchase

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia RBA Bulletin/ Building Capital Expenditure Q2/ Household Spending (July)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q2/ Private Capital Expenditure Q2/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (July)/ National People's Congress

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: BiliBili, Vanke, Qantas Airways

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Political and Security Committee meets in Brussels.  The Committee is composed of all ambassadors of the 27 EU members states. They are expected to review and discuss the situation in Iran and other major international issues and events.

·       Today is Independence Day in Moldova, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank monetary policy meeting minutes released.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (June)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

·       France PPI (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (July)/ Jobseekers Total (July)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies (July)/ Loans to Households (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       EARNINGS: Pernod Ricard

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (June)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/21)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (July)

Friday, August 28, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a consultation on Lebanon.

·       The BRICS FinTech Group meets virtually.

·       A partial lunar eclipse will be visible over the Americas, Europe, Africa and parts of western Asia

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives keynote remarks at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August)/ Bank Lending (July)/ PPI (July)/ Net Payrolls (July)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP (June)/ GDP (July)/ GDP Implicit Price Q2/ Budget Balance (June)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (July)

·       USA Chicago PMI (August)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (August)/ Michigan Current Conditions (August)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/28)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/28)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (July)/ Jobs/applications ratio (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (August)/ Tokyo CPI (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Construction Orders (July)

·       Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)/ Budget Balance (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (July)/ Import/Export Prices (July)/ PPI (July)

·       China National People's Congress

·       Malaysia PPI (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Private Consumption (July)/ Private Investment (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)

·       India Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/21)

·       EARNINGS: Petronas, Bank of China (HY)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Russia GDP (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (August)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       France Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Household Consumption (July)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August)

·       Turkey Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Confidence Index (August)/ Imports/Exports (July)

·       Germany Unemployed Persons (August)/ Unemployment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Industrial Sentiment (August)/ Selling Price Expectations (August)/ Services Sentiment (August)

·       Greece PPI (July)/ Total Credit (July)

·       Serbia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Ireland Retail Sales (July)

·       EARNINGS: Bertelsmann (HY), Northam Platinum (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Global

·       The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting begins in Asheville, North Carolina and runs through August 30th.   The meeting is in preparation for the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting being chaired by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Asheville on August 31st to September 1st.  The agenda of both meetings is “modernizing financial regulation; strengthening our understanding of excessive global imbalances; enhancing debt transparency and facilitating debt restructuring processes; endorsing a vibrant digital assets ecosystem; improving cross-border payments and addressing payments fraud and scams; and promoting financial literacy.” 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iceland holds a referendum on the resumption of European Union membership negotiations. Iceland applied to join the EU in 2009, but negotiations have been suspended since 2013.  Subsequent governments have insisted that a referendum be held before negotiations resume.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union will hold the 21st Extraordinary Summit on Strengthening Conflict Prevention and Resolution Mechanisms in Luanda, Angola.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope — named after the first NASA chief astronomer, who is often dubbed “the mother of the Hubble Space Telescope” — launches aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting will be held in Koror, Republic of Palau.

·       Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey celebrates Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau holds a constitutional referendum which will expand presidential powers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead 

·       August 29 – 30: The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

·       August 31 – September 1: the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

·       September 1 – 2: There will be a G20 Innovation Ministerial held in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

·       September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

·       September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

·       September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

·       September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

·       September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

·       October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

·       October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

·       October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

·       October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.  There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

·       October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held.  All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

·       November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

·       November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

·       December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

·       December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

The Global Week Ahead

Markets Struggle to Understand Where the US-Iran War is Heading, Funeral for Senator Graham Brings World Leaders to Washington, Fujimori Becomes Peru’s President, and a Big Week for Central Banks and Earnings

July 26 - August 2, 2026

Markets are going into this week struggling to understand the trajectory and future implications of the US-Iran War.  Several new and significant turns have taken place in the last few days that are changing the complexion of the war.  The first being Houthi forces in Yemen, at the behest of Iran, attacked two Saudi oil tankers on July 23rd in the Red Sea with a combination of missiles and drones following a declaration they were imposing a “maritime embargo” on Saudi Arabia overall - which followed a Saudi air attack on Sanaa, Yemen, which appeared to be targeting Iranian military advisors and senior Houthi military leaders.  Overall, more than a dozen ships have been attacked in and around the Red Sea/Hormuz corridor since July 6th.   And in the last 24 hours, Houthis have fired missiles at a Saudi Aramco oil refinery inside Saudi Arabia.

The second event happened Saturday (July 25th) and, for the first time, merged the US-Iran War with the Ukraine War when Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against an Iranian cargo ship and an Iranian naval vessel in the Caspian Sea.  Ukrainian officials said the cargo ship was carrying drone and missile components bound for Iran and that Kyiv considers such cargo "legitimate military targets." Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires, calling it a "hostile and criminal act" and that it was done "at Israel's behest to drag Europe into its war."   Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian has been on calls with Russia's Lavrov and the EU's Kallas about a response, saying it "cannot go unanswered."  This coincided with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remarking that Kyiv had noted Russia was passing on its satellite observations in the Middle East to Iran to enable it to direct strikes ⁠in the region.

If there is any good news coming out of the US-Iran War, it is that there were no attacks launched by either the US or Iran the last two nights.  It appears this is the result of a new round of negotiations between Iran and Oman from which there are reports of “progress.”

We will continue to monitor the situation closely and will provide updates during the course of the week.  We had several meetings and discussions with regional and local bank presidents in the Midwest this past week.  We came away seeing a significantly heightened sense of anxiety and concern over economic conditions.  The fears are three-fold: 1) the unpredictability of when hostilities might end with Iran which is causing oil prices – especially diesel prices – and spike, 2) Rising risk the Federal Reserve may feel compelled to raise interest rates this week, and 3) President Trump imposing yet another round of tariffs – ranging from 10% to 12.5% - on 60 major trading partners while threatening new 50% tariffs on Canada in retaliation for wildfires burning in Canada.

Washington will see a remarkable and sad event this week: The funeral of Senator Lyndsey Graham (R-SC).  President Trump is scheduled to give the eulogy, and several world leaders are traveling to Washington to attend the service.  Among them are Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.  Both leaders will meet with Trump separately at the White House.

Zelenskyy is hoping to find a way to revive peace talks with Russia, but for now, Russia does not seem interested in pursuing a new peace track.  Ukrainian long-range drone strikes and missile strikes have been causing considerable damage to Russian military and energy facilities as well as logistical targets (including nine Wildberries facilities – Wildberries is Russia's largest e-commerce platform and considered the Amazon of Russia).

Peru will inaugurate Keiko Fujimori as the country's new president – the country's10th president since 2016 – after winning the race by less than 50,000 votes.  It was Fujimori's fourth presidential bid.  Her win, alongside Abelardo de la Espriella's in Colombia and José Antonio Kast's in Chile, is being read as part of a broader regional shift toward the conservative wing in Latin America — a reversal from the Chávez/Lula-era left tilt.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, this will be a particularly busy week.   Three major central bank meetings are taking place alongside a heavy data release schedule and a cascade of corporate earnings reports.

Breaking it down, in the US, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meets this week.  While the Fed is likely to keep rates on hold, there has been a clear rise in market chatter suggesting a possible hike, creating a somewhat jittery market (as alluded to above in our meetings with bank presidents).  We are firmly with the consensus that they will hold.  Also, this week the PCE Index – which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation – is out Friday.  It comes after the Conference Board's consumer confidence index on Tuesday, Q2 US GDP release on Thursday, and the PCE on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on Friday on interest rates.  We are in consensus that they are likely to hold rates.   Also out on Friday will be the July Tokyo CPI, June retail sales, labor market data, housing start data, and industrial production figures.  China releases June industrial profits on Monday and July PMIs on Friday. 

Europe also has a busy week.  The Bank of England meets on Thursday to decide on interest rates – also likely to hold.   The German Ifo Survey is out on Monday, and July CPIs for Germany and Spain are out on Thursday and for Italy and France on Friday.  

Finally, the corporate earnings schedule is massive this week, led by several major global tech and financial firms.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will visit the United States, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Germany through Aug. 3rd.

• Today the Maldives celebrate Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

• Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

• Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Liberia celebrates Independence Day.

• The 18th U.S.-Africa Business Summit begins in Mauritius and runs through July 29th.   The theme of the summit is “Advancing New Frontiers in U.S.-Africa Prosperity,” and there is expected to be more than 2,500 participants, including numerous African heads of state, senior US government officials, and CEOs. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 27, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council will meet on the situation in Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Trump travels to Michigan to deliver remarks on the economy.

• The US Senate is likely to hold a procedural vote on Director of National Intelligence nominee Jay Clayton.

• OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is expected to brief senior Trump Administration officials and members of Congress on the latest AI models.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

• Mexico Balance of Trade (June)

• USA Durable Goods Orders (June)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp (June)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (June)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (June)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)

• Canada BoC Market Participants Survey

• EARNINGS: Baker Hughs, Whirlpool, Rambus, Nucor

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his annual State of the Nation address to Congress. Over the past year, public discourse across the country has been consumed by the high-stakes impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, infrastructure corruption scandals, and persistent economic strain.

• Legislative assembly elections begin in Pakistan-controlled Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The economic surveillance unit AMRO (ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office) will present its assessment of the region and provide updated growth and inflation forecasts for economies in Southeast Asia as well as China, Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea. It will examine key risks and challenges affecting the regional outlook as the U.S.-Iran war drags on.

• China’s fashion retailer Shein files for its IPO.

• Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

• China Industrial Profits (June)

• Japan Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)

• Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

• Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• EU finance ministers meet in Brussels for an ECOFIN budget session.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with State Duma (parliament) members to discuss current legislative work

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Ireland Consumer Confidence (July)

• Euro Area Loans to Companies (June)/ Loans to Households (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

• Germany Ifo Business Climate (July)/ Ifo Current Conditions (July)/ Ifo Expectations (July)

• Slovenia Business Confidence (July)

• Greece Total Credit (June)

• UK CBI Distributive Trades (July)

• EARNINGS: LVMH, AstraZeneca, Audi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to an open debate on the Middle East with particular focus on Palestinian affairs.  Deputy Special Coordinator Ramiz Alakbarov is expected to brief the council, with High Representative of the Board of Peace to Gaza Nickolay Mladenov.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Donald Trump is set to give a tribute at the funeral service of US Senator Lindsey Graham in Washington at the National Cathedral.

• President Trump is scheduled to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington.  Netanyahu is in Washington for the memorial service of the late Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC).   Interestingly, Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid will also attend the memorial and meet with US members of Congress while in Washington (The Israeli elections are set for October 27th, the first elections since October 7, 2023).

• Trump will then meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House (Zelenskyy is also in Washington for the Graham memorial service).

• Peru’s President-elect Keiko Fujimori is sworn into office after winning June's runoff by fewer than 50,000 votes.  This was Fujimori’s fourth presidential bid. Her inauguration will have a number of right-leaning regional guests including Argentina's President Javier Milei, Chile's President José Antonio Kast, and Panama's President José Raúl Mulino, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. And Spanish King Felipe VI is likely to attend, as well. Argentinian President Javier Milei will continue to Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia for meetings.

• IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will visit Argentina through July 29th.

• South Dakota holds first-ever runoff in Republican gubernatorial primary runoff. The run-off was triggered by a quirky 1985 state law that states that if no candidate in a governor, U.S. Senate, or U.S. House primary clears 35% of the vote, the top two finishers go to a runoff eight weeks later. South Dakota is the only state with this 35% threshold rule.

• Special election in Georgia's 13th Congressional District following the death of Representative David Scott (D).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.

• Brazil Current Account (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (July)

• USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (June)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (June)/ Redbook (July/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (July)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ Money Supply (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/24)

• Chile Interest Rate Decision

• EARNINGS: Boeing, UPS, Visa, Ford, Coca-Cola ASM, Mondelez, PayPal, Boeing, Corning, JetBlue, Royal Caribbean, Visa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The China International Game Developers Conference (CGDC) begins in Shanghai and runs through July 30th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch in Sydney.

• South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)

• Tawain Consumer Confidence (July)

• Malaysia PPI (June)

• India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

• EARNINGS: Singapore Air

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• There will be an informal meeting of EU Fisheries Ministers through July 29th in Cork, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (July)/ Conventional Gilt

• France Consumer Confidence (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)

• Spain Unemployment Rate/ Retail Sales (June)

• Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

• EARNINGS: Mercedes, GSK, Barclays, Kering, Air Liquide, Orange, Safran, Essilor Luxottica, Man Group, Unilever, LVMH, Michelin

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Israel Unemployment Rate (June)

• Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) Business Council holds the 9th Industrialization Week in Durban, South Africa through July 31st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

Wednesday, July 29, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on SCR 2745 sanctions. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, testifies before the Senate Homeland Security & Government Affairs Committee. Committee Chairman Rand Paul subpoenaed Fauci last month after Fauci declined to appear voluntarily. The panel plans to question him about whether he lied to Congress during the pandemic about whether his office funded gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.  Paul has said he wants to ask whether Fauci funded gain-of-function research while telling Congress he hadn't, why certain records were destroyed, and why he sought a presidential pardon. Paul has also claimed declassified documents show Fauci "personally shaped" what the intelligence community told the public about COVID's origins, with 18 agencies relying on his guidance.  Fauci received a preemptive pardon from President Biden covering "certain" past federal conduct tied to his government role. Commentators note that the pardon doesn't protect him from lying now — any false testimony in this hearing would be new conduct outside the pardon's scope — which is part of why this hearing is being watched closely regarding whether he might invoke the Fifth Amendment. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces its interest rate decision.  Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds a press conference at 2:00 p.m. ET.

• Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations released

• USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/24)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/24)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/24)

• Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

• EARNINGS: Meta, Microsoft, Starbucks, General Dynamics, Qualcomm, SoFi, Boston Scientific, ADP, Humana, Procter & Gamble, Robinhood, Qualcomm

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Japan’s newly created Intelligence Bureau begins operations. Japan is standing up its first centralized intelligence apparatus since World War II, replacing the existing Cabinet Intelligence and Research Office (CIRO) with two new bodies: 1.) The National Intelligence Council (NIC) — the top command-and-decision layer, chaired personally by PM Sanae Takaichi, with 10 members.  Its first meeting is set for July 31st, and 2.) The National Intelligence Bureau (NIB) — the operational arm, tasked with gathering, integrating, and analyzing intelligence across government. It'll be led by Kazuya Hara, a former senior police official currently serving as director of Cabinet intelligence. Budget is roughly $407 million, with hiring focused on cybersecurity specialists, software engineers, and liaison officers. Full operations are expected by December.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has framed the launch of the new intelligence service as "a first step" in a broader effort to unwind postwar constitutional restrictions on Japan's security posture, alongside her push for arms-export liberalization. What is driving all this is growing awareness in Japan of increased (and more aggressive) Chinese, Russian, and North Korean activity  - as recently reported in the New York Times that dozens of Russian intelligence operatives have relocated to Japan in recent years to source and reroute sanctioned weapons components.

• Today, Wallis and Futuna Territory Day is observed, marking the islands’ 1961 transition to a French Overseas Territory.

• Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Australia Inflation Rate (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (June)/ CPI (June)/ Quarterly Inflation Rate/ Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (June)/

• Singapore Import/Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

• Japan BoJ JGB Purchase

• EARNINGS: SK Hynix, Nomura, Arm, CPKC

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Italy Private Sector Credit (June)/ Industrial Sales (May)

• Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (July)

• UK           BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Approvals (June)/ Mortgage Lending (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)

• Greece Unemployment Rate (June)

• Ireland GDP Growth Rate

• Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Corporate Profits (May)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

• Germany Import Prices (June)

• EARNINGS: Aston Martin, Rio Tinto, Airbus, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Standard Chartered, BASF, Eni, L’Oreal, Airbus, Danone, Hermes, Remy Cointreau, Aberdeen, Aston Martin Lagonda, Glencore, Pirelli, Porsche, Electrolux

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• The Mine ENTRA 2026 Conference begins in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe and runs through July 31st.  The conference brings together major mining, engineering, and transport leaders to discuss critical mineral extraction and export flows.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

• Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 30, 2026

Global

• The UN Security Council holds the first straw poll on nominees to be the next Secretary-General.  It is a secret straw poll to determine which candidates have enough support to stay in the race, with the fifteen members currently discussing six candidates. In successive rounds, council members will be asked to indicate for each candidate whether they are "encouraged," "discouraged," or express "no opinion," repeating the process until a clear frontrunner emerges.  There are currently four formal candidates: Michelle Bachelet, Rafael Grossi, Rebeca Grynspan, and Macky Sall. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The US Senate Judiciary Committee votes on Todd Blanche’s nomination to be Attorney General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Net Payrolls (June)

• Mexico GDP Growth Rate/ Fiscal Balance (June)

• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)

• USA PCE Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv/ Personal Income (June)/ Personal Spending (June)/ GDP Price Index Adv/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/25)/ PCE Price Index  (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/18)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ PCE Prices Adv/ GDP Sales Adv/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/25)/ PCE Prices Adv/ Real Consumer Spending Adv/ Real Personal Spending (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/  EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/24)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/29)

• Columbia Business Confidence (June)

• EARNINGS: Apple, Amazon, Mastercard, Coinbase, Bristol Meyers Squibb, Valero, Altria, Stellantis, Blue Owl, Huntsman, Reddit, Canada Goose, Hershey

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• The island nation of Vanuatu celebrates its Independence Day.

• The Gaikindo Indonesia International Auto Show runs through Aug. 9, with a plug-in hybrid electric car announced earlier this year by China's BYD likely to be the highlight of the show. Auto industry players will be watching for hints on whether BYD will become a serious rival to Japanese automakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Barrenjoey Economics Forum in Sydney.

• South Korea Business Confidence (July)

• Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/25)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

• New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)

• Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)

• Australia Building Permits (June)/ Import/Export Prices/ Private House Approvals (June)/ RBA Hunter Speech

• Singapore Unemployment Rate

• Thailand Industrial Production (June)

• EARNINGS: Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic, Keppel

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates. Additionally, the BoE releases its summary of monetary policy and minutes of the committee meeting.

• UK Car Production (June)/

• France GDP Growth Rate/ Household Consumption (June)

• Romania Unemployment Rate (June)

• Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate

• Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

• Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

• Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)

• Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)

• Germany GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

• Italy GDP Growth Rate/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

• Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

• Greece PPI (June)

• Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

• Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

• Russia GDP (June)

• EARNINGS:  Shell, Fujitsu, Samsung, Panasonic Yum! Brands, TataSteel, ArcelorMittal, Societe Generale, British American Tobacco, BAE Systems, Renault, ING, Lloyds Banking Group, Air France-KLM, Heidelberg Materials, Stellantis, Rolls-Royce, Adidas, Prada, BMW, Renault, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Ferrari, Anglo-America, BAE Systems, Lloyds, London Stock Exchange, Rolls Royce, Prada, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa PPI (June)

Friday, July 31, 2026

Global

• Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• President Trump will hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David.

• National Governors Association summer meeting begins in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and runs through August 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ PPI (June)

• Canada GDP (May)/ GDP (June)/ Budget Balance (May)/ Budget Balance (April)

• USA Employment Cost - Benefits / Employment Cost - Wages/ Employment Cost Index/ Chicago PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (July)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/31)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/31)

• Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

• Columbia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

• Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

• Peru Inflation Rate (July)

• EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, AutoNation, AbbVie, Magna, Moderna

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (July)

• Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ PPI/ Housing Credit (June)/ PPI/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (July)

• South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

• Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ Tokyo CPI (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ BoJ Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)/ BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (July)/ NBS General PMI (July)

• Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Business Confidence

• Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

• Thailand Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption (June)/ Private Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (July)

• Philippines Business Confidence (June)

• Taiwan DP Growth Rate Adv

• Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv

• Sri Lanka Inflation Rate July)

• India Government Budget Value (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/24)/ M3 Money Supply (July/15)

• EARNINGS: Sony, JERA, Maruti Suzuki

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

•  Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill and BoE Director of Monetary Analysis Fergal Shortall will give a virtual National Agency briefing.

• Ireland Retail Sales (June)

• Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

• UK Nationwide Housing Prices (July)

• Hungary PPI (June)

• Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

• France Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

• Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Tourism Revenues/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

• Poland Inflation Rate (July)

• Italy Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

• Spain Current Account (May)

• Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

• Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

• Greece Retail Sales (May)

• Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

• Ukraine Current Account (June)

• EARNINGS: Credit Agricole, EDF, Axa, Engie, Puma, OMV, Pearson, Taylor Wimpey

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Africa Budget Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Saturday, August 1, 2026

Global

• Denmark assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• The current interim Venezuelan government will begin formal talks with Venezuela’s US-backed opposition.  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has framed the overall US approach to negotiations and move toward eventual elections as a three-phase plan: political stabilization, economic recovery, transition. However, the devastating late-June earthquakes (5,000+ dead, ~$37bn in damage per UN estimates) have added urgency as reconstruction financing is seen as contingent on political certainty.

• Complicating the situation further is the fact thatthe opposition itself is split — Dinorah Figuera, who headed the 2015 National Assembly, which is the last assembly formally recognized by the US Government, has pointedly distanced herself from Nobel laureate María Corina Machado, who's running a separate, parallel initiative on the transition question.

• Guam holds primary elections for the US House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

• Sri Lanka Unemployment Rate/ PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• Today is Switzerland National Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Russia M2 Money Supply (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Benin celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

• Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

• Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (July)

Sunday, August 2, 2026

Global

•  The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting takes place to evaluate and decide output targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

• The full provisions of the EU Artificial Intelligence Act come into force.

North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

• July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.

• July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.

·       August 7 – Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is sworn into office.

• August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

• September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

• September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

• September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

• September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

• October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

• October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

• October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

• October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
  November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held.  All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

• November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

• November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

• December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

The Global Week Ahead

The US-Iran Further War Escalates, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet, Britain Gets a New Prime Minister as IMF Issues Warning, Lebanon’s President Travels to Meet Trump, Trump’s Tariffs Set to Expire, and the ECB and PBoC Meet on Interest Rates

July 19 - 26, 2026

Fighting between the US and Iran is likely to further escalate in the coming week as the fragile cease-fire brokered last month is declared “functionally dead." Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said Sunday that President Trump’s signature on the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) was ‘worthless and unreliable.” And an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said Iran has “no plans for negotiations.”  

US attacks on Iranian military positions and infrastructure significantly ramped up this weekend following an Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan, killing three US servicemen, and the killing of a US serviceman in Northern Iraq by an Iranian drone.  Iranian missile and drone strikes have also hit US sites in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman.

At this point, Iran’s rhetorical posture is now uniformly rejectionist across the Supreme Leader's office, Iran's negotiating team, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry — a marked shift from the ambiguity and disunity heard in early July.  The best bet for a return to a ceasefire and a possible return to the negotiating table is via Omani and Pakistani diplomatic efforts.  Still, for now, those efforts are falling on deaf ears in Tehran.

Adding to tensions in the region, the Saudi-Houthi truce that has been in effect since 2022 may now be breaking down, threatening a second war front in the Gulf region.  The truce began unraveling on July 13th when air strikes by Yemen's internationally recognized government (seen as being backed and assisted by Saudi Arabia) blocked an Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthis delegation, which included Iranian military experts, from landing in Sanaa, Yemen, which is under control of the Houthis.  The Houthis retaliated by firing missiles at the Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia. 

Markets will also be watching Lebanese President Joseph Aoun's visit to Washington to meet with President Trump.   This is Aoun's first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as President, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009. 

The White House is hoping to bolster Aoun's efforts to help de-escalate Israeli-Hezbollah fighting in southern Lebanon and begin moving on a plan to disarm Hezbollah fighters (something Hezbollah leaders adamantly refuse to do).   The Trump-Aoun meeting could also result in an announcement of new investment funding to help rebuild the beleaguered country following years of war.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers will be gathering in Manila, the Philippines, this week.  Joining them will be US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the foreign ministers of Australia, Canada, Japan, and the UK.   The meeting will focus on hammering out a South China Sea code of conduct to cool tensions among China, Vietnam, and the Philippines. 

But the real action may be on the sidelines as markets will be watching for any bilateral meetings between Rubio and Wang or between Rubio and Lavrov to discuss Ukraine peace talks.  Additionally, Rubio and the foreign ministers of Japan, India, and Australia will hold a Quad meeting to discuss security issues of mutual concern.

In London, Andy Burnham will formally become the UK's new prime minister, the seventh prime minister the country has had since 2016.  Burham is facing a host of economic challenges that were made tougher this week by the IMF warning against raising the top income tax rate, as it assesses that this will further hurt the economy.  Burnham is seeking a way to offset rising energy costs in the wake of the Iran War.

Back here in Washington, the Trump Administration's 10% Section 122 tariffs are set to expire later this week.  The President put these tariffs in place to replace the tariffs struck down by the US Supreme Court earlier this year.  Trump cannot renew the tariffs – only the US Congress can do that – but he can effectively do so by raising the rate to 15%, something he has said he intends to do.  The rationale for the higher rates, according to the Office of the US Trade Representative, is that they will be human rights violations in more than 50 countries (see below for the full list of countries targeted).   Also this week, Brazil gets its own, separate Section 301 25% tariffs imposed by President Trump.

Turning the global economic and financial radar screen, the big events this week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on rates and the People's Bank of China's decision on rates.  

While the ECB meeting will dominate European market news, a few other important reports will be released this week.  The UK releases labor figures on Tuesday and June CPI numbers on Wednesday.  And the July ZEW surveys for Germany are out on Tuesday.

In Asia, aside from the PBoC interest rate announcement, Japan's trade balance is released on Wednesday, and the June CPI is released on Friday. 

Here in the US, initial jobless claims are released on Thursday, and flash PMIs and new home sales are released on Friday.  And Canada's June CPI is out on Monday, and May retail sales data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, July 19, 2026

Global

·       The World Cup Championship is played in New Jersey.

·       Talks to develop rules on deep-sea mining continue at the International Seabed Authority in Kingston, Jamaica through July 24th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines will host the 59th Association of Southeast Asian Nations Foreign Ministers' Meeting and related meetings in Manila through July 24th.

·       Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul begins a two-day visit to Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Community of West African States will hold the bloc's 69th Ordinary Summit of heads of state and government in Sierra Leone.

·       São Tomé and Principe hold presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 20, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on Haiti, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs Ma Zhaoxu is set to visit Washington, D.C. (and possibly Miami, Florida) as a preparatory meeting for President Xi Jinping’s expected visit to the US in September.

·       Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday. Outgoing Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to give a national speech calling for the mobilization supporters in opposition to the incoming government.

·       The United States and Mexico will hold the third round of bilateral talks on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement review.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board is in a Quiet Period in advance of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) meetings.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Common (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean  (June)/ CFIB Business Barometer (July)

·       USA CB Leading Index (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Dominos, Zions Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia will host Exercise Pitch Black, military drills involving 20 countries, through Aug. 7.

·       Today is Marine Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/ Loan Prime Rate 5Y (July)

·       Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       India Infrastructure Output (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Andy Burnham is set to be sworn in as the UK’s new Prime Minister, becoming the country’s seventh premier since the 2016 Brexit vote.  He will enter 10 Downing Street after meeting with King Charles.  Burnham takes office just as the IMF issued a warning that the UK cannot boost public spending, something the new Prime Minister to do to deal with the energy shock caused by the Iran War.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Mario Draghi on competitiveness in Brussels.  The meeting is a follow-up to Draghi’s landmark report last year detailing how and why the EU needs to streamline regulation and slash red tape.

·       Romania's Parliament will hold an extraordinary session on legislation tied to the country's EU recovery funds, during which President Nicusor Dan aims to have a new government sworn in.

·       There will be an informal of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Research and Innovation) through July 21st in Brussels.

·        A delegation of EU Members of Parliament from the Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee will be in Washington D.C. this week to discuss the global economic and the geopolitical outlook, the US political agenda, and developments in the fields of banking and finance. They will meet members of the House of Representatives, officials from the Treasury, the IMF, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodities and Futures Exchange Commission. MEPs will also meet with representatives from think tanks and civil society organizations.

·       The Farnborough International Airshow begins in Hampshire, England, with investors watching for major aircraft deals

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (June)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (June)/Employment Growth (June)/ Industrial Production  (June)/ PPI (June)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (May)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (June)

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index  Q2

·       Jordon Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Union Commission’s Joint 9th Specialized Technical Committee (STC) on Finance, Monetary Affairs, Economic Planning and Integration begins in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.  Concurrently, the 5th STC on Trade, Tourism, Industry and Minerals runs through July 24th — this is the AU's main finance-and-trade ministerial track, relevant for AfCFTA implementation and critical minerals positioning.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 21, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is expected to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanese President Joseph Aoun is set to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C. This is Aoun’s first face-to-face with Trump, his first White House trip as president, and the first visit by a Lebanese head of state in nearly two decades — the last presidential-level meeting was Sleiman-Obama in 2009.  The White House is hoping to advance the June 26 framework agreement with Israel, with talks focusing on Israeli troop withdrawal and extending Lebanese state authority in the south. The meeting comes one week after the US, Israel, and Lebanese negotiators met in Rome where they agreed on a "pilot zones" arrangement.  The White House is also hoping to publicly give Aoun US backing to strengthen his position at home, where Hezbollah rejects both the framework and disarmament. Aoun himself has called the framework "not ideal" but reflective of the balance of power and says he expects positive outcomes. Markets should watch to see if a withdrawal timeline is set for Hezbollah forces and any significant financing commitments for reconstruction of Lebanon.

·       US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Joint Chiefs of Staff are scheduled to testify before the US Senate Appropriations Committee on the Administration’s requested $80 billion request for Iran War operations.  The hearing will likely spill over into hard questions about war authorization from Congress (or the lack thereof), the status of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact of Iran strikes on Gulf States and US military facilities based there.

·       The US Intelligence Committee is expected to vote on the nomination of Jay Clayton to be the next Director of National Intelligence.  A full Senate vote could come by the end of the week.

·       Arizona holds a primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanael Benjamin speak at the OMFIF Conference in London.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (May)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (July)/18/API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (July/17)

·       Columbia Imports/Balance of Trade (May)/ SE Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (June)

·       EARNINGS: Halliburton, Ally, Danaher, Charles Schwab, 3M, General Motors, MSCI, Alaska Air, EQT, CapitalOne, Equifax, Hasbro, Marsh & McClennan, Northrup Grumman, Novartis

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 59th ASEAN foreign ministers begins and runs through July 24th in Manila, the Philippines. The meeting will also see the foreign ministers of the U.S., China, Russia, Japan, Australia, Canada and the U.K in attendance as special guests.  The agenda will cover the South China Sea Code of Conduct, which the Philippines hopes to see finalized but probably will not happen as many countries – especially China – have fundamental differences over what the deal should look like. Beijing has proposed banning joint military drills with countries outside Southeast Asia and restricting oil and gas exploration to intra-regional partnerships — poison pills for the Philippines and Vietnam.  Other agenda items include an informal consultation on a Five-Point Consensus on what to do with Myanmar, and energy security and the Iran War economic impact on the region.  On the sidelines of the meeting, a Quad (US/Japan/Australia/India) foreign ministers meeting with take place from the 20th to the 21st and a subsequent ministerial meeting to take place in Australia.  Markets will be watching closely for any bilateral meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi as well as how Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is received at the meeting.

·       The Japanese Diet goes into an extended session in an effort to pass the secondary capital bill which would authorize the building of a backup city capable of assuming core government functions in the event of a major disaster.   The bill is also designed to decentralize economic activity in and around Tokyo.  Opposition parties have attacked the bill as biased toward the cities of Osaka and Ishin.

·       Today is Liberation Day in Guam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q2

·       Tawain Export Orders (June)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the European Parliament from the Foreign Affairs Committee will travel to Beijing and Shanghai to discuss critical issues including Russia’s war against Ukraine, human rights, security challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and China's influence on supply chains. MEPs will raise other matters of common interest including multilateralism, climate diplomacy, and the international governance of AI. They will meet with, among others, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the leadership and foreign affairs committee of the National People's Congress.

·       Today is National Day in Belgium, marking the date in 1831 when Leopold of Saxe-Coburg-Saalfeld took the oath as the first King of the Belgians.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

·       UK Unemployment Rate (May)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)/ Claimant Count Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (June)

·       Greece Current Account (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (May)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Energy Forum begins in Houston, Texas and runs through July 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

 

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international security: Natural resource governance: The foundation of peace, security and prosperity. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A status hearing is scheduled for former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in his US narcoterrorism and drug trafficking case.

·       US Section 301 tariffs on Brazil imports set at 25% go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/17)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/17)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/17)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (May)

·       EARNINGS: AT&T, GE Verona, Philip Morris, Pulte Group, Moody’s, Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, Texas Instruments, Kinder Morgan, Crown Castle, CSX,  Chubb, Raymond James, Rogers Communications (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A delegation of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) of Taiwan is scheduled to travel to Washington, D.C. to meet with US government officials and members of Congress and leading think tanks.  They will be in the US through July 26th.  The delegation is led by Tsai Chi-chang who previously served as Commissioner of the Chinese Professional Baseball League.  He will throw out the first pitch at the New York Mets game against the Los Angeles Dodgers and also meet with Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred in New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (June)

·       Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (June)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/21)

·       Indonesia     Interest Rate Decision/  Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)/ Loan Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Tawain Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates.

·       The European Commission’s provisional deadline for a decision on Paramount Skydance’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery.

·       UK Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI Output (June)/ PPI Input (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)

·       Poland Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)/ M3 Money Supply  (June)/Retail Sales (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Russia Industrial Production (June)/ PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: Alstom (FRA), AkzoNobel, Dassault Aviation, Moncler, Mulberry, Reach, ServiceNow, Banco Santander, Schindler

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (June)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, July 23, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security [SCR 2788 – peaceful settlement of disputes]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks.

·       Candidates to be the next UN Secretary-General participate in a town hall at the UN General Assembly in New York.  The candidates include former President of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet Jeria,  Former President of the UN General Assembly María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés (Ecuador), Rafael Mariano Grossi (Argentina):, the current Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis (Costa Rica), Former Vice President of Costa Rica and Secretary-General of the UN Trade and Development, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett (Guyana), the current Permanent Representative of Guyana to the UN, and Macky Sall (Senegal), Former President of Senegal. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Office of the US Trade Representative holds a hearing to review which countries will be eligible for the 2027 renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act trade pact.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (June)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (May)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (July)

·       Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/18)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/11)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/18)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/17)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/22)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: American Airlines, Huntington Bank, Freeport McMaRon, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, CEMEX, Tractor Supply, Intel, Newmont, Sallie Mae

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers is set to take place in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan through July 24th.  The meeting will finalize the agenda and review documents for the upcoming SCO Council of Heads of State Summit taking place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, from August 31st to September 1st.  

·       The Wiki Finance Expo, billed as one of the biggest fintech events in Asia, kicks off in Hong Kong. The two-day conference is expected to attract over 12,000 attendees to hear hundreds of speakers and exhibitors talk about cryptocurrencies and other financial innovations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Adv Q2

·       Australia Employment Change (June)/ Full Time Employment Chg (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Part Time Employment Chg (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (June)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Singapore  Inflation Rate (June)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (June)

·       Tawain Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

·       China FDI (YTD) (June)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU’s extension of the cap on Russian oil prices expires unless renewed.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through July 24th in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of monetary policy meetings to decide Interest Rates. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (June)/ Deposit Facility Rate/ Consumer Confidence Flash (July)

·       France Business Confidence (July)/ Business Climate Indicator (July)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (July)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (July)/ Overnight Lending Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (June)

·       UK Conventional Gilt/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q3/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (July)

·       EARNINGS: Nokia, BNP Paribas, Dassault Systemes, Carrefour, TotalEnergies (FRA), Unicredit (ITALY), Thales, T-Mobile, Roche, Nestlé, Kuehne+Nagel, Morgan Sindell, Heathrow, , Getlink, Centrica, Carrefour

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt will observe Revolution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (May)/Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, July 24, 2026

Global

·       The International Criminal Court members vote on whether to dismiss prosecutor Karim Khan for alleged sexual misconduct, which he denies.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s latest trade tariffs – set at 10% under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (which he implemented after the Supreme Court in February struck down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) – are set to expire.  Only the US Congress can extend it. However, the tariffs can effectively be renewed by the President if he puts in new tariffs at a15% rate, which he has previously stated he intends to do.  The US Trade Representative’s Office has been building the rationale for the new, higher rate under a forced-labor rationale, holding hearings earlier this month.  The USTR announced they are focused on 54 countries which include: Algeria, Angola, Argentina, Australia, the Bahamas, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Egypt, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Hong Kong, India, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Morocco, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Peru, the Philippines, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago, Türkiye, UAE, UK, Uruguay, Venezuela, and Vietnam. Six others — Canada, Ecuador, the EU, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan — have import prohibitions in their laws but were found by USTR  to have failed to enforce them

·       The Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercise begins off the coast of Hawaii. The three-month long military training event is the world’s largest maritime warfare exercise involves more than 30 surface ships, five submarines, 140 aircraft and more than 25,000 personnel from 31 different countries.

·       President Donald Trump attends the rescheduled White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (June)

·       USA Building Permits (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ New Home Sales (June)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (July)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/24)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/24)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (June)/ PPI (June)/ Raw Materials Prices (June)/Wholesale Sales (June)

·       Chile PPI (June)

·       EARNINGS: Verizon, Charter Communications, American Express, Verizon, the Hartford Financial, , SLB, NextEra Energy, Booz Allen, HCA Healthcare, CN Railway (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (June)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/18)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/New Car Sales (June)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Index (May)

·       India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/10)/ Deposit Growth (July/10)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/17)/M3 Money Supply (June/30)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Scottish city of Edinburgh institutes a visitor’s levy, taxing anyone visiting the city.  City Councilors hope to raise more than £150 million annually from it.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in an on-stage conversation at the MacGill Summer School 2026 in Donegal, Ireland

·       UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (July)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence AUG/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain PPI (June)

·       France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (July)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (July)/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina's President Javier Milei will travel to Brasilia, Brazil to attend the launch of right-wing Flavio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign.  Milei then will to Lima, Peru to attend the July 28th inauguration of President-elect Keiko Fujimori.  From there he will go to Ecuador to see President Daniel Noboa going to Colombia to attend the August 7th  inauguration in Colombia of President-elect Abelardo De La Espriella. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Maldives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Russia celebrates Navy Day.  Normally, there is a big parade in St. Petersburg but for the second year in a row, it has been cancelled because Ukrainian drone forces are capable of striking the city and the parade without Russian military forces being able to defend adequately against them.

The 113th Tour de France cycling race concludes today with the 21st and final stage ending up in Paris.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius will host the U.S.-Africa Business Summit through July 29.

·       Today is Independence Day in Liberia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

·       July 28: Keiko Fujimori is inaugurated President of Peru.

·       July 29: The US Federal Reserve meets on Interest Rates.

·       July 30: The Bank of England meets on Interest Rates.

·       August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       September 12 – 13:  The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

·       September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

·       September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

·       September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

·       October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

·       October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

·       October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.

·       October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election are held.  All members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

·       November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

·       November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

·       December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S.–Iran Peace Negotiations Drag On, Lebanon and Israel Continue Talking as Fighting Ramps Up, Colombia, Peru, and Ethiopia Hold Important Elections, and Markets Await Inflation and Jobs Reports

May 31 - June 1, 2026

Heading into the new week, markets continue to watch the slow-moving peace talks between the Trump Administration and the Iranian regime’s leadership.  While details remain murky and the reporting on the issue has been confusing at best, it still appears there is a potential memorandum of understanding between the two sides.  Reports surfaced late Thursday claiming a tentative deal had been reached to extend the cease-fire.  But on Friday, President Trump reportedly sent back a series of demands to the Iranian leadership – none of which were apparently well-received in Tehran.   

Specifically, President Trump – according to a Truth Social posting – demanded Iran agree to never develop a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened to unrestricted shipping traffic with no tolls imposed by the newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority.”  The President then met with aides in the National Security Council for two hours, but no new decisions were made.  

Meanwhile, Iran has now pushed back, demanding new conditions which include the cessation of Israel’s  military operations in Lebanon against the Iranian proxy force Hezbollah.  But that is unlikely to happen as Israeli forces are continuing their drive into Lebanon, capturing the medieval crusader castle of Beauford (the deepest incursion of the Israeli military into Lebanon in 26 years),which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu marked a “dramatic shift” in the campaign. Netanyahu vowed Israeli forces would push deeper into Lebanon, sending evacuation notices to civilians more than 25 miles deep into the country.  Critically, Lebanese and Israeli negotiators are scheduled to hold a fourth round of talks at the Pentagon in Washington this week.  All in all, it does not look like any real settlement of hostilities, either in Lebanon or with Iran, is likely this week.

Elsewhere, three big elections are being held this week: First, Colombia is holding presidential elections today (Sunday).  Left-wing/Marxist Iván Cepeda is seen as the frontrunner in polls but is unlikely to secure the 50% vote needed for victory.  That makes the race between right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia critical to determining if Cepeda will likely win in the second round of voting or if the center/right has a shot at winning the presidency.  

And in Peru, the presidential election is heading into the decisive second round next Sunday (June 7th) between conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sánchez.  Fujimori is slightly ahead in most polls. 

Finally, Ethiopia is holding general elections on Monday for the country’s lower house and regional assemblies.  Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party is projected to win in a landslide (as there is no coalition among the opposition, which also finds it hard to campaign with tough government restrictions placed on them).  The elections are important from a regional security perspective, as there are currently three active insurgencies in Ethiopia and ongoing tensions with Sudan and Egypt – all of which affect security in the broader Horn of Africa and commercial shipping via the Suez Canal.  And with the global economic repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz being shut, any risk to shipping through the Suez would be a major new shock.

 Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, starting with the U.S. markets, we are waiting to see the U.S. jobs report on Friday, preceded by the JOLTS report on Tuesday and ADP’s private payrolls report on Wednesday.  Additionally, the May ISM indices are out this week (manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday), as is the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday.  There is not much in the way of Fed speeches this week – aside from two by Fed Governor Michael Barr – as the Fed is getting ready to go into its quiet period.

 Canada reports manufacturing PMIs on Monday and services PMI, along with Q1 productivity on Wednesday.  And Ivey PMIs are out on Friday. These come on the heels of Statistics Canada reporting the country technically slipped into a technical recession in Q1 for the first time since 2020. 

In Asia, China’s PMIs are out on Sunday (government figures on Sunday and private manufacturing and services on Monday and Wednesday, respectively).   Japan’s Finance Ministry releases financial statement statistics on Monday and labor earnings on Friday.  Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech on Wednesday. 

And in Europe, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) consumer expectations survey is out Monday, and the Eurozone’s May flash CPI is out on Tuesday, with Germany, France, and Italy on Thursday.  ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Thursday (in advance of the blackout period for the June 11th monetary policy meeting), and several other ECB board members will speak earlier this week as well.  Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has several public appearances this coming week, as well.  We would also note that Boris Vujčić becomes vice-president of the European Central Bank on Monday.  It is a non-renewable eight-year term, replacing Luis de Guindos. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia holds presidential elections.  Current polling points to a runoff between left wing candidate Ivan Cepeda and a right-wing contender. The first round will determine if establishment figure, Paloma Valencia or radical outsider, Abelardo de la Espriella, advance to the runoff. Valencia would prove more attractive to centrist swing voters. Her victory would reinforce our outlook that the opposition wins the presidency.

·       Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira will pay an official visit to China through June 2nd.  Vieira and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will co-chair the fifth China-Brazil Foreign Ministerial-Level Comprehensive Strategic Dialogue, with the readout framed around Global South coordination, BRICS, and the community-of-shared-future agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Orašac, Croatia

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell gives acceptance remarks at the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing will visit India through June 3rd.

·        Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary and President To Lam will undertake a state visit to the Philippines through June 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene: Panel at the 32nd Dubrovnic Economics Conference ‘Stablecoins and monetary policy’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds elections for its National Assembly as well as municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 1, 2026

Global

·       Colombia takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of June.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

·       The World Health Assembly Meeting is being held in Geneva, Switzerland through today.  Global health leaders are aiming to finally adopt the long-overdue **Pandemic Agreement**, establishing the first unified international framework for pandemic preparedness and response.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The head of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang Party, Cheng Li-wun, will begin a visit to the U.S. for two weeks.  She will meet with members of Congress, participate in a number of closed-door think tank events all almost exclusively focusing on cross-strait security issues.  Cheng has also expressed her hope to meet with President Trump.  She will then travel to New York and Boston.

·       The U.S. Supreme Court is approaching its end-of-term window (typically late June). There are a number of major decisions to handed down and most are expected in the coming weeks. These include: Trump v. Barbara on birthright citizenship, Louisiana v. Callais on gerrymandering, and State of Illinois v. Trump challenging the president's deployment of National Guard forces to Chicago — rulings that could significantly alter Trump's executive authority and the congressional map. 

·       The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate return to work after being in recess last week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Carolyn Rogers, will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

·       Mexico Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (May)/ Construction Spending (April)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (May)

·       Peru Inflation Rate  (May)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

·       EARNINGS: HP

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A U.S. trade delegation will visit India to discuss the bilateral trade deal through June 4th.   The meetings are hoping "to finalize the details" of an interim trade agreement between Washington and New Delhi, as well as take forward negotiations on multiple areas such as market access, nontariff measures and investment promotion under a proposed broader pact. This comes on the heels of an Indian trade team visiting Washington from April 20th to 23rd for meetings with their American counterparts.

·       Today is Samoa Independence Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May)/ Commodity Prices (May)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q1/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)

·       EARNINGS: Nidec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the June bank holiday in in the UK.  Banks and financial markets will be closed.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers in Lefkosia, Cyprus through June 2nd.

·       The EU – Pakistan Strategic Dialogue will take place in Islamabad, Pakistan.

·       The Oslo Freedom Forum begins in Oslo, Norway.  Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a speech at the 2026 Bank of Korea International Conference in Seoul, Korea.

·       Germany Retail Sales  (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales  (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies  (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ethiopia holds elections general elections.  Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is highly likely to win along with his Prosperity Party.

·       South Africa’s National Assembly is scheduled to hold the first meeting of the impeachment committee against President Cyril Ramaphosa, but it could be postponed due to legal action by the president. 

·       Today is Madaraka Day (Self-Governance Day) in Kenya.  It is a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Ethiopia General Election

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel and Lebanon will hold their fourth round of direct talks in Washington, D.C. through June 3rd.

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the State Department’s 2027 budget request.  However, the questioning from senators will almost assuredly veer into policy questions.

·       California holds primary elections.  These include Democrat and Republican gubernatorial races and all 52 state House seats. Voters in Los Angeles will also vote in the increasingly hotly contested mayoral race between incumbent Karen Bass and former reality TV star Spencer Pratt.  Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota are also holding primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives remarks and participates in conversation on monetary policy co-hosted by the Cleveland Fed, the City Club of Cleveland, the Greater Cleveland Partnership, and the 50 Club of Cleveland.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May)

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Redbook (May/30)/ JOLTs Job Openings (April)/ JOLTs Job Quits (April)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/29)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

·       EARNINGS: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Donaldson

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The COMUTEX Technology Conference begins in Taipei, Taiwan and runs through June 5th.  Speakers at the event include Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Marvell Technologies CEO Matt Murphy, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

·       Japan Monetary Base

·       Australia RBA Harper Speech/ Building Permits (April)/ Company Gross Profits Q1/ Building Permits (April)/ Business Inventories Q1/ Current Account Q1/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q1/ Private House Approvals (April)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/  Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament's international trade committee will vote on the final trilogue deal implementing the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement ahead of a plenary vote likely to take place in mid-June.

·       Today is Republic Day in Italy, celebrating the day in 1946 when Italians were called to vote and form a new government after World War II.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies before the House of Lords Economic Committee.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Boris Vujčić will give online remarks at the Icelandic conference on the occasion of the publication of the report by Catherine Mann on Iceland’s currency options.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the University of Derby Business School.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Inflation Rate  Flash (May)

·       Spain New Car Sales (May)/ Unemployment Change (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (April)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       France Budget Balance (April)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q1

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Total Credit (April)

·       UK BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ Mortgage Approvals (April)/ Mortgage Lending (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Net Lending to Individuals (April)/ CPI Flash (May)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (May)

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Global

·       The OECD publishes its twice-yearly Economic Outlook is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuelan unions will protest nationwide to call for free elections, the release of political prisoners and improved service delivery. 

·       Paraguay will host Mercosur’s 68th Summit.

·       The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on the Treasury Department’s 2027 Budget.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

·       The Bloomberg Tech Conference takes place in San Francisco, California through June 4th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation event at the Community Development Bankers Association (CDBA) Peer Forum 2026, Washington, D.C.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/29)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ Factory Orders (April)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (May)/ ISM Services Employment (May)/ ISM Services New Orders (May)/ ISM Services Prices (May)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (May/29)/ Fed Beige Book/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q1/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

·       Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Exports (April)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       EARNINGS: Broadcom, CrowdStrike Holdings, Medtronic, Veeva Systems, Descartes Systems (Can), Macy’s, Industries CH (MEX), Transcontinental (CAN), Canaccord Genuity (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea will hold local elections for provincial governors, city mayors and local assembly members. This vote serves as a vital mid-term temperature check for the country's current administration under left-leaning President Lee and his foreign policy stance toward China and North Korea.  Current polls suggest Lee’s Democratic Party is leading in all major polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a meeting of business leaders at the Kisaragi-kai meeting in Japan.

·       New Zealand Building Permits (April)/Imports/ Export Prices Q1/ Terms of Trade  Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/02)

·       Australia Ai Group Construction Index (May)/ Ai Group Industry Index (May)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI  (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI  (May)/ GDP Growth Rate  Q1/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Chain Price Index Q1/ GDP  Consumption Q1/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (May)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

·       China RatingDog Services PMI (May)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (May)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ Industrial Production  (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

·       India HSBC Composite PMI (May)/ HSBC Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 29th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 6th.  Historically dubbed the "Russian Davos," its function has entirely shifted toward rewriting trade routes and financial models outside the Western sphere.  Russian President Vladimir Putin may speak at the event – as he has traditionally done – but this has yet to be confirmed yet (Putin does not make his schedule public in advance due to the Ukrainian War and increased risk of Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia).

·       The European Parliament is expected to release legislative texts for the EU Tech Sovereignty Package which was proposed by the European Commission on May 27th.   The measure is expected to put in place new restrictions on the use of U.S. cloud providers — including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud — for sensitive government data across all 27 EU member states. And it is expected to include the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) and a Chips Act update. The restrictions apply to public-sector organizations handling financial, judicial, and healthcare data; private companies are not covered.

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will host French President Emmanuel Macron in Rome.  The talks will cover "the main topics of the bilateral, European and international agenda.”

·       The Bank of England launches a public vote on the proposed wildlife images for next banknotes (as opposed to famous politicians or monarchs).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson give a keynote speech at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2026 in Zurich, Switzerland.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Balance of Trade (May)/ Imports/Exports (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/22)

·       France New Car Registrations (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

·       Romania PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ Real Wage Growth  (March)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Spain S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)

·       Italy S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI  (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ PPI (April)

·       UK S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

·       UAE S&P Global PMI (May)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals  (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Tanzania will host the Tanzania Investment Summit in Arusha through June 5th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Business Confidence Q2/ S&P Global PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the House Ways and Means Committee.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/30)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/23)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/30)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labor Costs Q1/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/29)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (June/04)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/03)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

·       Columbia PPI (May)

·       EARNINGS: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica (CAN), Toro, Docusign, Enghouse Systems (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the anniversary of the Chinese Communist Government’s violent crackdown on students and other protestors in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in 1989.   No commemoration ceremonies are allowed in mainland China and now in Hong Kong (where there used to be annual candlelit ceremonies).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock and Christopher Kent, assistant governor (financial markets), give evidence to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee in Canberra

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/30)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/30)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)

·       Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       Thailand Business Confidence (May)

·       EARNINGS: NIO (CHN), Sekisui House (JPN)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Justice and Home Affairs (Home Affairs) Council Ministers will meet in Luxembourg.  They will discuss he overall state of the Schengen area. The Commission will present its 2026 State of Schengen Report, which outlines how the Schengen acquis has been implemented over the past year. The Council will then define the actions that it views as priorities for the Schengen Council cycle 2026-2027. The Commission and EU-LISA will then give updates on the implementation of the interoperability of large-scale IT systems, including the Entry/Exit System and ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System). Then they will discuss migration issues, the future legal status of displaced Ukrainians living in the EU, and EU security issues dealing with the Iranian War.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for Cohesion Policy through June 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

·       The Brussels Economic Security Summit 2026 begins and runs through June 5th.

·       Workers on London’s Underground rail service are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Today is the feast of Corpus Christi. The European Central Bank is closed.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks at the first Journée de réseaux de femmes dans la santé en Région Sud in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur organized by Agence Régionale de Santé in Aix-en-Provence, France.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Investment Association Annual Conference 2026 in London.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)/ Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GNP  Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

·       Russia GDP (April)

·       Romania Retail Sales (April)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (April)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)/Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales  ARP

·       Spain Industrial Production (April)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/29)

·       Euro Area     S&P Global Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       France S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

·       Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       UK New Car Sales (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, June 5, 2026 

Global

·       WL (World) Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (May)

·       FAO Food Price Index (May)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ Full Time Employment Chg (May)/ Part Time Employment Chg (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Hourly Wages (May)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

·       USA Nonfarm Payrolls (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/Average Hourly Earnings (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Weekly Hours (May)/ Government Payrolls (May)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (May)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (May)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (May)/ Used Car Prices (May)/ Used Car Prices (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/05)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/05)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)

·       Brazil Car Production (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

·       Columbia Inflation Rate (May)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (May)

·       EARNINGS: ABM Industries

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (April)

·       Japan Household Spending (April)/ Household Spending (April)/ Average Cash Earnings  (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Economic Index (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (May)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Thailand  Inflation Rate (May)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 3rd Est 2025-26/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/29)        

·       Singapore Retail Sales (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Western Balkans Summit will take place in Tivat, Montenegro. The summit will be chaired by the President of the European Council and hosted by the President of Montenegro. The EU will be represented by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. High Representative Kaja Kallas will also participate.  The agenda includes discussion of the gradual integration and growth plan of the region in to the EU as well as strengthening security and defense cooperation.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss a proposed regulation on recognition of parenthood. The proposal aims to ensure continuity of parenthood in cross-border situations and thereby protect all children, regardless of how they were conceived or born and regardless of their type of family.  They will also approve a partial mandate on the new Justice program supporting, among others, judicial cooperation in civil and ‎criminal matters and judicial ‎training and promoting the independence and impartiality ‎of the judiciary. This program will be part of the next multiannual financial framework (MFF) covering the period 2028 to 2034. Additionally, ministers will discuss hate crime and hate speech.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Denmark.  It is a half-day holiday for workers and financial markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a conversation with Ed Balls and Stephanie Flanders marking the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations” in London.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will give a keynote speech at the UCL MacroMonitor Launch in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives a keynote speech at the "Pan-European Conglomerate Club" meeting in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1

·       UK Halifax House Price Index (May)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (May)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (April)

·       France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q1

·       Greece GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Italy Retail Sales (April)

·       Serbia PPI  (May)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       EARNINGS: Telecom Italia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (May)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Saturday, June 6, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on supervision and regulation at the 5th DC Finance Conference, Washington, D.C.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo begins a six-day visit to Spain and the Canary Islands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (May)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 7, 2026 

Global

·       OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Peru holds the 2nd round of presidential elections between conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sánchez.  The winner will become the 10th president of Peru in the last ten years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Armenia holds parliamentary elections.

·       Jersey holds parliamentary elections.

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers through June 8th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

·       Today is Sette Giugno in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

·       June 10 – The European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

·       June 10 – Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting.

·       June 11 – July 19 – The World Cup will be held in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.

·       June 15 – The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

·       June 17 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meeting.

·       June 18 – The Bank of England's monetary policy meeting.

·       June 23 – The World Economic Forum’s New Champions meeting in Dalian, China.

The Global Week Ahead

US – Iran Negotiations Drag On, Venezuelan President and US Secretary of State Discuss Oil With India, Colombia Holds Presidential Elections, and Markets Await Inflation Reports

May 24 - 31, 2026

While Washington is quiet this weekend in honor of Memorial Day, negotiations between the US and Iran continue, but seemingly in fits and starts.  Both Iranian and US media reports suggested Friday that significant progress had been made toward finalizing a peace deal. 

But as details began to leak out, President Trump faced sharp criticism from Republican lawmakers, including Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who said a 60-day extension of the ceasefire “would be a disaster.”  President Trump publicly fired back at them, but it appears he also started adjusting the draft terms of the deal being hammered out with Iran.  Accords as part of the ultimate deal.  And he seemed to even suggest in a Truth Social post that he would be open to Iran signing onto the Accords (which seems highly unlikely as official Iranian policy has long called for the outright eradication of Israel).

It is understood that many of those Arab countries have asked Trump to refrain from any military attacks this week as the Hajj is underway through May 29th with large numbers of Muslim pilgrims traveling in the region.  Meanwhile, Iranian officials said no deal was “imminent,” but conceded that progress had been made.  

Additionally, the US will host the next round of Israeli–Lebanese peace talks in Washington later this week.  However, those talks may be canceled – and also impact the US-Iranian talks – after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to step up attacks on Hezbollah forces after right-wing members of his cabinet demanded a full-scale resumption of Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. 

In India this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US) meetings to discuss mutual defense issues.  While Rubio is there, it is expected acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriquez will travel to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss oil sales, a move strongly supported by the US.  Iran is highly dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East and has been struggling to deal with shortages in recent weeks.

We are also watching for a possible visit to North Korea by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Xi’s security advance team is in Pyongyang now, making arrangements for a visit.  Xi is reported to want to help broker better relations among North Korea, the US, and South Korea.  But China no longer has the influence it once had over North Korea since the start of the Ukraine War, as North Korea has grown closer to Russia, sending large numbers of soldiers to fight and selling large quantities of munitions.  It will be Xi’s first visit to the Hermit Kingdom since 2019.

Here in the Americas, Colombia is holding hotly contested presidential elections next Sunday to replace President Gustavo Petro, who is constitutionally barred from running again.  The contest has effectively consolidated into a three-way race between candidates representing sharply divergent visions for the country: Iván Cepeda, who represents the far left and is polling around 44%, Abelardo De la Espriella, who represents the hard right and is polling in the mid 20% range, and Paloma Valencia, who represents the center-right, is floating in the 18 – 21% range in polls.   

It is highly likely that a run-off will take place.  The critical sub-contest is therefore between De la Espriella and Valencia for the second runoff slot, with conservative voters split between them, and the other ten candidates far behind. A weighted average of recent polls suggests that Cepeda could narrowly lose to Valencia and tie De la Espriella in a runoff scenario. 

Also, this week, Pope Leo XIV releases his first encyclical -Magnifica Humanitas – on the use of artificial intelligence (AI).  It is expected to warn society of the grave risks of unfettered AI for humanity.  According to the New York Times, the Holy Father calls for: government regulation of the private companies that are driving the development of A.I., protection and retraining for workers whose jobs are threatened, education to help students think critically about the technology, action to protect children from violent, hypersexualized or fake information online that is often generated by A.I., and safeguards to ensure that humans, not artificial intelligence, remain responsible for all decisions regarding the use of weapons.

 Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, the big focus is on inflation reports from the US, the Eurozone, and Japan.   

In the US, the April PCE will be released on Thursday.  Also out on Thursday is the durable goods orders report.  Both reports come after Tuesday’s Conference Board consumer confidence release.

In Asia this week, Japan’s Tokyo CPI print is out on Friday, as are the April industrial production and retail sales reports.   China releases industrial profits on Wednesday.

Finally, in Europe this week, May inflation prints are out on Friday for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.  All should be good reflective indicators of the economic damage caused so far by the Iran conflict.  We will also get the European Central Bank minutes out this week.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Cyprus holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds National Assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 25, 2026

Global

·       Pope Leo XIV releases his new encyclical on AI – Magnifica Humanitas – warning of the risk of AI to civilization. You can read it HERE.

·       The United Nations is closed for the holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Memorial Day, a national holiday.  Financial markets and banks are closed.

·       Today is Revolution Day in Argentina, a holiday.

·        U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit India through May 26th.

·       The United States and Mexico hold their first official round of negotiations as part of a review of their trilateral trade deal with Canada (USMCA).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for a meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang sometime this week (but no official announcement has been made, and the meeting may take place in early June – Reuters and other news services report Chinese security teams and advance teams have been in the North Korean capital preparing for a visit). 

·       Venezuela’s Interim President Delcy Rodriguez travels to India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The meeting will mostly focus on oil supplies for India.

·       Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will visit China through May 28th.

·       Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan will visit China through May 26th.

·       Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnivirakoul will visit France through May 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (March/ Leading Index (March)/ PPI (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Whit Monday, a holiday in most European countries.  Most financial markets and banks are closed.

·       A delegation of the Security and Defence Committee will travel to Canada to hold policy discussions with officials, political counterparts, and experts, on deepening EU-Canada defense cooperation, including the country’s participation in the SAFE program. MEPs will also discuss Canada's participation in peacekeeping operations, NATO, support for Ukraine, Arctic security, and the supply of critical raw materials.

·       The UK Parliament is in recess until June 1.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May)

·       Poland Retail Sales (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       EARNINGS: Salvatore Ferragamo, Pharma Mar

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Jordan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Development Bank will hold its annual meeting in the capital of the Republic of the Congo, Brazzaville, from May 29th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Upholding the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter and Strengthening the UN-centered International System. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the session.  UN Secretary-General António Guteres will deliver remarks.

·       Muslims around the world will observe Eid al-Adha through May 30th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are out of session this week.

·       The Texas Republican senate primary run-off is held.

·       NASA will hold a press conference to update on its moon base plans and highlight progress towards a sustained presence on the lunar surface.

·       Today is Independence Day in Guyana, a national holiday.

·       President Trump gets a medical and dental checkup at Walter Reed Hospital in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nicolas Vincent, External Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO).

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (April)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

·       EARNINGS: AutoZone, Semtech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India will host the Quad foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi, with the ongoing Iran war expected to figure prominently in discussions. The gathering, to be presided over by Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, is scheduled to be attended by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Marcos begins a four-day visit to Japan.  This coincides with the 70th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between Manila and Tokyo. The visit will feature a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, during which the two leaders are expected to upgrade relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership and discuss critical regional issues like maritime security and energy cooperation.

·       The MRO Greater China Industry Show begins in Beijing, China.  Approximately 200 domestic and international exhibitors will be there, focusing on “operation and maintenance of domestic large aircraft and the digital transformation of civil aviation.”  

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore     Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production  (April)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index  (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Economic Minster Katherina Reiche travels to Beijing, China for meetings.  BASF CEO Markus Kamieth will accompany her.  BASF recently opened a €9 billion complex in Zhanjiang – BASF’s largest investment ever.

·       The EU’s 8th Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Brussels. The meeting will serve to confirm the fulfilment of the interim benchmarks by Albania and to set closing benchmarks for Cluster 1 'Fundamentals', including Chapters 23 - judiciary and fundamental rights, and 24 - justice, freedom and security, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform and economic criteria. The Cluster also includes Chapters 5 – public procurement, 18 – statistics, and 32 - financial control.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the availability and affordability of fertilizers in the EU, following the presentation of the Fertilizer Action Plan by the European Commission.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will start preparations for the June European Council meeting by discussing the annotated draft agenda.  The agenda includes a discussion among the European Council on Ukraine, the Middle East, the next multiannual financial framework, overall global economic challenges, common European defense and security issues, and migration.

·       The UK Parliament is out of session this week.

·       Today is Independence Day in Georgia, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes its Consolidated Financial Statement for the Eurosystem.

·       The European Central Bank presents “Financial Stability Review Special Feature: Stress in global private credit and its implications for euro area financial stability.”

·       UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (May)/ CBI Distributive Trades (May)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Spain PPI (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Finance Magnates Africa Summit, which focuses on trading, takes place in Cape Town.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)             

Wednesday, May 27, 2026 

Global

·       The United Nations is closed for an official holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to New York for a two-day set of meeting with institutional investors, CEOs, and other business leaders.  While there, he will address the Economic Club of New York on his economic agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy at the Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference, Tokyo, Japan.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on AI, the economy, and the financial system at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) Policy Forum, Stanford, California.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in “Policy Panel Discussion 1: Monetary Policy and Imbalances" before the 2026 Monetary Policy from New Perspectives Conference hosted by the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/22)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/22)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook  (May/23)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/22)

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)

·       EARNINGS: Salesforce, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, National Bank of Canada, Agilent, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Best Buy, EQB, Marvell

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong International Airport opens an expanded Terminal 2, aiming to enhance its competitiveness as a regional hub. The airport says about 15 carriers will operate out of the new facility, flying mostly short-haul and regional routes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference will begin in Tokyo, Japan through May 28th.  Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers opening remarks.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (May)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI  (April)/ CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Philippines Budget Balance (April)

·       Japan BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 62nd European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels. Under the Presidency of  Michael Damianos, Minister of Energy, Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Cyprus, representing the Presidency of the Council of the EU. The meeting will be attended by  Espen Barth Eide, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway  Sabine Monauni, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Environment and Culture of Liechtenstein, and  Martin Eyjólfsson, Permanent Secretary of State of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Iceland, as well as by representatives of the European Commission and the European External Action Service. The members of the EEA Council will discuss the overall functioning of the Agreement on the European Economic Area (EEA Agreement) and hold an orientation debate on ‘Ensuring competitiveness and green growth in the Internal Market.”

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers - Gymnich through May 28th in Limassol, Cyprus.

·       Members of the European Parliament’s s standing delegation for relations with China will travel to Beijing for the 43rd EU-China interparliamentary meeting with counterparts from the National People’s Congress. This is the first such gathering held in China following the lifting of Chinese sanctions against European lawmakers, political bodies, researchers and organizations.

·       UK energy regulator Ofgem announces an update to the energy price cap for the period July 1 to September 30th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)

·       France Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/Job Seekers Total (April)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Russia Industrial Production (April)

·       EARNINGS: Manchester United

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic &Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Healthcare Innovation Summit Africa will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa through May 28th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 28, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Canada through May 30th.  This is the first time a Chinese foreign minister will have visited China in 10 years.  He will meet with Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand to discuss the recently updated Canada-China Strategic Partnership.

·       US Vice President JD Vance speaks at the US Air Force Academy’s commencement ceremony in Colorado.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Canada releases the 2026 Financial Stability Report.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Reykjavík Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University in Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Brazil Bank Lending (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)

·       USA Building Permits  (April)/ Durable Goods Orders (April)/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Personal Income (April)/ Personal Spending  (April)/ Corporate Profits   Q1/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Trans (April)/ GDP Price Index  2nd Est Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/23)/ PCE Price Index (April)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/16)/  PCE Prices 2nd Est Q1/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense  (April)/ GDP Sales  2nd Est Q1/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/23)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (April)/ Real Consumer Spending  2nd Est Q1/ Real Personal Spending (April)/ New Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (May/22)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/27)

·       Canada Current Account Q1/ Average Weekly Earnings (March)/ BoC Financial Stability Report

·       Columbia Business Confidence (April)

·       EARNINGS: Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, CIBC, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, Dollar Tree, NetApp, Gap, BRP

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Humanoid Summit begins in Tokyo, Japan.  The global conference is dedicated to humanoid robots and physical artificial intelligence. The two-day event will feature live robot demonstrations and speeches by industry leaders, with participants from companies including Google DeepMind, Boston Dynamics and Toyota Motor.

·       Kazakhstan will host a Eurasian Economic Union summit in Astana.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

·       A new ferry service is scheduled to connect Taiwan's Keelung, near Taipei, with the picturesque island of Ishigaki in Japan's Okinawa. The first sailing is due to depart late Thursday and arrive around 8 a.m. the next morning. The ferry will initially operate once a week on a trial basis, before expanding to two weekly round trips.

·       Azerbaijan celebrates the founding of their democracy today.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/23)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

·       New Zealand NZ Business Confidence (May)/ Budget 2026

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q1/ Household Spending (April)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q1/ Private Capital Expenditure Q1

·       Thailand New Car Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       The Finance Ministers of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain will issue a joint statement outlining political compromises aimed at advancing the bloc's Savings and Investments Union. Many observers see the effort as a step toward breaking the political deadlocks preventing the bloc from creating a U.S.-style financial market in a crunch meeting later this month.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the Industrial Accelerator Act: how best to leverage access to the Single Market through European preference and low-carbon requirements. The Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) is a flagship legislative proposal aimed at strengthening European industrial competitiveness with the objective that by 2035 20% of the EU’s GDP should come from the industrial sector. It includes measures such as speeding up permitting, boosting demand for low carbon or "Made in EU" products, and controlling foreign investment. It was adopted by the Commission on March 4, 2026.  They will also hold a discussion on the 28th Corporate Legal Framework.  They will then move to approve a Council conclusion on “building a sustainable and competitive tourism for the future.”  The Council will then move to discuss the impact of the crisis in the Middle East on the EU tourism sector as well as key challenges facing the European Chemical industry.

·       The second day of informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers – Gymnich takes places in Limassol, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 28th meeting of Francophone Central Bank Governors in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech followed by Q&A at a public event  entitled "Euro Digitale e Sovranità Europea" organized by Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat to discuss the “Monetary Policy from New Perspectives" organized by Bank of Japan and Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies in Tokyo, Japan.  Later, he gives a pre-recorded video address to the External Statistics Conference jointly organized by Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, ECB and National Bank of Poland in Krakow, Poland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a public lecture as part of the Selten Salon organized by ECONtribute in Cologne, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden participates in a fireside chat at the 58th International Capital Market Association annual general meeting and conference in London.

·       The European Central Bank account of the last monetary policy meeting is published.

·       UK Car Production (April)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Selling Price Expectations (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

·       France PPI (April)

·       Spain Retail Sales (April)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Ethiopia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, May 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on South Sudan sanctions, followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee (regarding North Korea).

·       G7 Digital Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. hosts "security track" discussions between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, D.C. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Chamber of Commerce Southern New Jersey.

·       Brazil Government Budget Value (April)/ Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Net Payrolls (April)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1/ GDP (March)/ GDP (April)/ GDP Implicit Price  Q1/ Budget Balance (March)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (April)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (April)/Chicago PMI (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/29)

·       Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

·       Columbia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Cement Production (April)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shangri-La Dialogue beings in Singapore. Asia's largest annual defense conference will feature U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, while top military generals and admirals and security analysts are expected to discuss global geopolitical tensions and Asia's maritime security. An AUKUS defense ministers meeting involving Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. is also planned on the sidelines of the conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ ANZ Business Confidence (May)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (May)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Australia Housing Credit (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (April)/Import/Export Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Thailand Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption (April)/ Private Investment (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 3rd Est 2025-26/ Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Bank Loan Growth (May/15)/ Deposit Growth (May/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/22)/ M3 Money Supply (May/15)

·       EARNINGS: JTB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the legislative measures linked to the 10th framework program for research and innovation 2028-2034, also known as the Horizon Europe package. Horizon Europe is the EU’s key funding program for research and innovation. On 16 July 2025, the European Commission put forward its proposal for the 10th framework program, with a €175 billion budget, as part of the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF).  The will also move to adopt a Council recommendation for an EU framework for science diplomacy.

·       The Nato Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session begins in Lithuania.

·       The foreign ministers of Poland, Estonia and Iceland will meet in Warsaw, Poland after the Council of the Baltic Sea States meeting.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Germany Import Prices (April)/ Unemployed Persons (May)/ Unemployment Change (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Harmonized Inflation Rate   (May)// Household Consumption (April)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply  (April)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Greece PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Ukraine Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 30, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Speech Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Malta holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine L Mann participates on a panel at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference ‘Central bank independence under attack’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 31, 2026 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia holds presidential elections.  Current polling points to a runoff between left wing candidate Ivan Cepeda and a right-wing contender. The first round will determine if establishment figure, Paloma Valencia or radical outsider, Abelardo de la Espriella, advance to the runoff. Valencia would prove more attractive to centrist swing voters. Her victory would reinforce our outlook that the opposition wins the presidency.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Orašac, Croatia

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell gives acceptance remarks at the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene: Panel at the 32nd Dubrovnic Economics Conference ‘Stablecoins and monetary policy’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds elections for its National Assembly as well as municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Tensions Spike with Drone Strike on UAE Nuclear Plant, Putin Meets Xi in Beijing, Japan’s Prime Minister Travels to South Korea, and Flash Global PMIs to Show Iran War Impact on Global Economy

May 17 - 24, 2026

Markets are still working through the details of President Trump’s visit to Beijing last week for meetings with President Xi Jinping.  While expectations for any big breakthroughs on trade or Iran were low going into the meeting, there was hope for other large deals, such as major new agricultural deals and airplane purchases.  It often takes a few weeks following summits like this for deals to be finalized as sticky details are still being worked out.  

President Trump did tell reporters that China will purchase 200+ Boeing aircraft. However, President Trump has predicted China would purchase 750 planes, Boeing was hoping for 500, and in the end, it appears only 200 are being purchased.   However, China has not commented on the matter.  And no new major US agricultural purchases were agreed to during the summit, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. 

But just as President Trump was leaving, it was confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will arrive in Beijing on May 20th for bilateral meetings with President Xi.  The meeting is framed around the 25th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation signed by the two countries in 2001. 

Putin is also likely to seek progress on long-delayed projects such as Mongolia. Russia remains heavily dependent on Chinese markets and financial channels after years of Western sanctions.

But according to a Russian presidential spokesman, Putin and Xi will "exchange views" on Xi's meeting with Trump, and Moscow hopes to obtain that information "first-hand."  But US officials we have spoken with say the broader subtext is that Beijing is visibly balancing between Washington and Moscow — hosting both leaders in quick succession, signaling China's intent to remain indispensable to both sides, particularly as Ukraine negotiations and the US-Iran conflict create competing pressures on the global order.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will travel to South Korea this week for meetings with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.  The visit is part of an effort to strengthen previously tense relations between the two nations while also building mutual security and economic ties in the face of growing Chinese maritime aggression.  This is likely to include signing an agreement to share weapons, ammunition, and jet fuel during “times of emergency.”   

The two leaders will almost surely discuss growing concerns about the situation in Iran and the serious disruption it is causing to oil and gas imports, as well as helium imports, a critical component in the construction of semiconductors.  

Meanwhile, the Iranian situation has become significantly more complicated and worrisome this weekend when three drones – presumably Iranian – reportedly hit the perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Plant in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The plant is the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world and supplies approximately 25 percent of the USA’s electricity needs.  The highly provocative act ratchets up even further tensions and frustrations with Iran and will almost force President Trump and the UAE to respond militarily – especially as President Trump has already called the ceasefire “on life support”. 

Here in the Western Hemisphere, the EU-Mexico Summit will take place in Mexico City. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will sign two landmark agreements: The Modernized Global Agreement (MGA) – a comprehensive political/economic partnership agreement, and the Interim Trade Agreement (ITA), which has been given preliminary approval by all 27 EU member states earlier this month.  The ITA is expected to improve bilateral trade by 35% over the next five years, with a heavy focus on pharmaceuticals, automotive production, agri-food, and advanced manufacturing. 

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, this is Kevin Warsh’s first week as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.  The Fed will release the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, and they are expected to show growing concern about inflationary pressures, mostly due to the Iran War.  And watch for signs of growing Fed sentiment to raise rates later this year. 

 In terms of major economic reports this week, in the US, new residential construction data and pending home sales are out on Tuesday.  On Thursday, initial jobless claims are released, and on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment is released.  The whole week will be busy with corporate earnings, including Nvidia, Target, Lowe’s, Intuit, Walmart, Deere & Co, and Target.

 In Europe this week, the UK reports labor market figures on Tuesday and April inflation data on Wednesday.  We will also see flash PMIs for the UK, Germany, and France on Thursday.  And Germany releases the Ifo Survey on Friday. 

 In Asia, Japan releases several major data reports, including Q1 GDP on Tuesday and April CPI on Friday.   China releases industrial production, retail sales, and residential and commercial real estate property prices on Tuesday. And South Korea is set to release the April PPI on Wednesday. 

 Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Global

·       The UN World Urban Forum begins in Baku, Azerbaijan and runs through May 22nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington, D.C., the National Jubilee of Prayer gathering of Christians on the National Mall will take place.  This is a part of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

·       Cuba holds municipal primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The extended Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will expire at midnight.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cabo Verde holds legislative elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 18, 2026

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Paris, France through May 19th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Victory Day in Canada, a national holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Kenneth Howery and special envoy to Greenland Jeff Landry will travel to Nuuk, Greenland, through May 20 to participate in the Future Greenland Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks at the Dell Technologies World Annual Convention in Las Vegas, Nevada.

·       Interim Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Cheryl Venable gives welcome remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking".

·       Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (May)/IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Current Account Q1/GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       USA NY Fed Services Activity Index (May)/NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine senate convenes for the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The trial centers on charges including bribery, corruption and a high-profile threat against the president's life. Convicting the vice president requires at least a two-thirds majority.

·       The Australian Energy Producers Conference is held in Adelaide through May 21st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (April)/Services NZ PSI (April)

·       Singapore     Balance of Trade (April)/Non-Oil Exports (April

·       China House Price Index (April)/Industrial Production (April)/Retail Sales (April)/Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

·       EARNINGS: Baidu, Nidec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discussion he Council will discuss the future of the EU’s external action taking into consideration shifting geopolitical and geoeconomic contexts. Discussions will focus on how development cooperation can promote sustainable development in partner countries while advancing the EU’s strategic interests, as well as explore ways to strengthen the EU’s global role as a reliable partner. Ministers will also exchange views on the role of the Global Gateway strategy in the EU’s external action. The strategy mobilizes public and private resources to support sustainable investments in key sectors worldwide.

·       The UK’s Labour lawmakers will gather for the first time in the wake of the May 7 local electoral losses and Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation.

·       The European Parliament Plenary is held in Strasbourg through May 21st.  Key files on the agenda: a new law to improve the protection of EU strategic sectors from risky foreign investments, a debate/resolution on rule of law, fundamental rights and misuse of EU funds in Slovakia, new legislation on protection of victims of crimes, the gender care gap, and legislation to mitigate global steel overcapacity on the EU market. President Metsola will also confer the inaugural European Order of Merit during a ceremony in the hemicycle, marking the 75th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration. Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan is scheduled to address plenary ahead of Armenia's 7 June elections. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Paulo Cipollone participate in theG7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at the 3rd Sustainability Standards Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at a conference "Research and Market Perspectives on the Evolving Bank Supervisory and Regulatory Landscape" organized by European University Institute/Bank Policy Institute in San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy.

·       The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Euro Area Business Cycle Network cohost the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Martin Kocher, ECB board member and governor of the Austrian National Bank, and his Hungarian counterparty Mihaly Varga, speak in Budapest, Hungary.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene participates on a panel discussion at the Financial Times Business of Luxury Summit in London.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Committee Catherine Mann participates on a panel at the Lamfulussy Conference in Budapest, Hungary.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability Nathanael Benjamin speaks at the University of Glasglow Adam Smith Business School.

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Flash Q1

·       Italy Balance of Trade (March)

·       Romania Current Account (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (April)

·       Russia Current Account Q1

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair, Sonova 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks at the Samson International Smart Mobility Summit in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Jordon Industrial Production (March)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress party will hold primary elections to select candidates for the Senate in the country's 2027 general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Paris.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates in a policy panel at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks before a dinner at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking.”

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank First Vice President Cheryl Venable gives closing remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking."

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook (May/16)/Pending Home Sales  (April)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/15)/Fed Venable Speech

·       Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ New Housing Price Index (April)/Building Permits (March)/CPI Common (April)/CPI Median (April)/CPI Trimmed-Mean (April)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

·       Columbia Imports/Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: Home Depot, Toll Brothers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Andong, South Korea, through May 20th. Takaichi is expected to discuss energy security cooperation amid disruptions to crude oil supplies caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, which has spilled over to the wider Middle East region. The two leaders are also expected to discuss beefing up critical mineral supply chains. The meeting is likely to take place in Andong, Lee's hometown in southeastern South Korea. This would be part of so-called shuttle diplomacy or mutually visits by Japanese and South Korean leaders to each other's country — Lee visited Takaichi's home prefecture of Nara in January, so this is the reciprocal leg. The hometown symbolism is deliberate Japan-South Korea relationship-building optics.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attends the third India-Nordic summit in Oslo and meets his Norwegian counterpart Jonas Gahr Store as well as leaders from Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden. Following two earlier summits held in Stockholm in 2018 and in Copenhagen in 2022, the visit will focus on areas including technology, renewable energy, defense and cooperation in the Arctic.  He will then travel to Rome, Italy for meetings with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Bloomberg Forum for Investment Managers in Sydney.

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/PPI Input/Output Q1

·       Japan GDP Growth Rate Q1/GDP Growth Annualized Q1/GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/GDP External Demand Q1/GDP Price Index Q1/GDP Private Consumption Q1/Capacity Utilization (March)/Industrial Production (March)/Tertiary Industry Index (March)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (May)/Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/RBA Meeting Minutes

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/M3 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Negotiators from EU member states, the European Commission and the European Parliament will hold another round of interinstitutional talks on legislation to implement the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement.

·       NATO Chiefs of Defense Military Committee, NATO’s highest military authority, meets in Brussels.

·       The Mediterranean Forum takes place in Athens, Greece through May 21st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel discussion at The International Research Forum on Monetary Policy 2026 organized by the Euro Area Business Cycle Network, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Board in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote address at the AFME’s European Financial Integration Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·        AFME’s European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt. Speakers include ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives speech at the City Week Conference entitled “The Future of Money in the Digital World: A Central Banker’s Perspective” in London.

·       Belarus GDP (April)

·       UK Unemployment Rate (March)/Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (March)/Employment Change (March)/Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (March)/Claimant Count Change (April)/HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/Labor Productivity Q1

·       Spain Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: Shell, Euronext, DCC, Diploma

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Auto Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Paris, France.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Protection of Civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

·       Political/Social Events –

·       Primary elections are held in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on “Consumer Financial Health Metrics” at the Financial Health Network’s (FHN) EMERGE Financial Health 2026 Conference, Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes released.

·       Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speaks on economic outlook at the Atlanta Fed’s 2026 Financial Markets Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/MBA Mortgage Applications (May/15)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/15)/MBA Purchase Index (May/15)/EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (May/15)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       EARNINGS: Nvidia, Analog Devices, Intuit, Lowe’s, Target

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  The talks are likely to focus on energy cooperation, sanctions-resistant payment systems, and broader coordination within multilateral groupings such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The visit is also expected to renew the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship signed in 2001. The timing is deliberately choreographed against Trump's just-concluded Beijing trip, positioning Xi as the central diplomatic broker. 

·       Taiwanese President William Lai will give a speech marking the anniversary of his inauguration that could spur Chinese military drills.

·       The Sohn Hong Kong Investment Leaders Conference begins in Hong Kong.  Recognized as one of the most sought-after gatherings in the region, the Sohn Hong Kong Conference brings together Asia's brightest investment minds, offering attendees unparalleled insights into markets and investment strategies. 

·       The DealStreetAsia Asia PE Leadership Summit is being held in  Hong Kong.  This is DealStreetAsia’s first conference in Asia and focused on PE/VC capital allocation amid the China deleveraging and US-China decoupling backdrop. 

·       Today is Independence Day in East Timor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/19)

·       Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia     Interest Rate Decision/Deposit Facility Rate (May)/Lending Facility Rate (May)/Loan Growth (April)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April)/Current Account Q1

·       India Infrastructure Output (April)

·       EARNINGS: Tokio Marine, Sompo Japan Nip, MS&AD Insurance

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Emmanuel Moulin, nominee for Bank of France governor, appears before the Senate Finance Committee in Paris, France.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will appear before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee to answer questions about the economy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey speaks at the Bloomberg Global Markets & Banking Summit in London.

·       Germany PPI (April)

·       UK Inflation Rate (April)/PPI Input/Output (April)/Retail Price Index (April)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Inflation Rate (April)/CPI (April)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (March)

·       Russia PPI (April)

·       EARNINGS: Marks & Spencer, Keller, Severn Trent, British Land,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The ICT4D Conference 2026 begins in Nairobi, Kenya and runs through May 22.

·       Today is Republic Day in Cameroon, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/Retail Sales (March)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federa; Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin speaks on the economy to the Urban Land Institute Triangle in Wilmington, North Carolina.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (March)/Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Building Permits (April)/Housing Starts (April)/Initial Jobless Claims (May/16)/Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/Continuing Jobless Claims (May/09)/Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/16)/Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/Philly Fed Employment (May)/Philly Fed New Orders (May)/Philly Fed Prices Paid (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/15)/Kansas Fed Composite Index (May)/Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/21)/30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/21)/Fed Balance Sheet (May/20)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/Economic Activity (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

·       Peru Current Account Q1

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

·       EARNINGS: Walmart, John Deere, Ross stores, Zoom, CAE

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Samsung Electronics unionists vow to go for an all-out strike in their pursuit of 15% of the company's operating profit for employee bonuses. Management is fighting back and worries that it could weaken the company's competitiveness and cause a shareholder backlash. Samsung's labor dispute sparked national debate on how to distribute profits in the semiconductor industry -- one senior government official suggested paying a dividend to the public with tax revenue from Samsung and its rival SK Hynix.

·       JPMorgan’s Global China Summit takes place in Shanghai, with CEO Jamie Dimon set to attend. Through May 22nd.

·       In Hong Kong, the annual Cheung Chau Bun Festival begins, peaking with the Piu Sik Parade on Sunday, followed by the Bun Scrambling Final next Monday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Committee Junko Koeda gives a speech to local business leaders in Fukuoka, Japan.

·       South Korea PPI (April)

·       New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/Credit Card Spending (April)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/Employment Change (April)/Full Time Employment Change (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)/Part Time Employment Change (April)/Participation Rate (April)

·       Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/Machinery Orders (March)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/16)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (May)/HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/HSBC Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

·       South Africa Building Permits (March)/Consumer Confidence (May)

·       EARNINGS: Lenova, Singapore Telecommunications

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Helsingborg, Sweden through May 22nd.  The agenda will center on increased defense spending, more defense production, and maintaining strong support for Ukraine.  On the sidelines, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to discuss Nordic defense issues.

·       The Transport Research Arena Conference in Budapest, Hungary.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a lecture at University of Oxford in Oxford, UK.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor speaks virtually at the MNI Connect event in London.

·       Slovakia Current Account (March)/Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

·       France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/Employment Growth (April)/Industrial Production (April)/PPI (April)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/Current Account (March)/Current Account s.a (March)/Construction Output (March)/Labor Cost Index Flash Q1/Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

·       Italy Current Account (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)/PPI (April)

·       United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)

·       EARNINGS: BT, Swiss Life, Tate & Lyle, Nationwide Building Society

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

•       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Centre for Central Banking Guest Lecture in Frankfurt, Germany.

•       Argentina Leading Indicator (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

•       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (March)/ Retail Sales  (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

•       Mexico Economic Activity (March)/Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

•       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)/ CB Leading Index (April)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (May)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)/ Michigan Current Conditions (May)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May)/22/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/22)

•       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

•       EARNINGS: Booz Allen, BJ’s Wholesale

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       APEC Trade Ministers meet in Suzhou, China through May 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

·       Japan Inflation Rate (April)/Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (April)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q1/M2 Money Supply (April)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (May/15)/ Deposit Growth (May/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/15)/ M3 Money Supply (May/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Lefkosia, Cyprus.  Leaders will discuss macroeconomic developments in the Euro area, Euro area competitiveness, and the digital Euro.

·       The 8th EU-Mexico Summit takes place in Mexico City, Mexico.  António Costa, President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will be meeting Claudia Sheinbaum, President of Mexico.  They will be discussing an EU-Mexico Trade Agreement, and a number of joint cooperative priorities including the fight against organized crime,  climate action and environmental protection, advancing energy security and the energy transition

research and innovation and people-to-people contacts and academic exchanges

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will EU trade ministers will receive an update on economic security, with a particular focus on the impact of the conflict in Middle East on trade. The ongoing hostilities in the region have generated significant trade disruptions worldwide, and ministers will address the short- and long-term consequences.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Brussels through May 23.

·       The CIS Heads of Government meeting takes place in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will speak at a the Eurogroup press conference in Cyprus.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the opening address at the 2026 Asian Monetary Policy Forum (AMPF) in Singapore.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Boris Vujcic, Peter Kazimir and Madis Muller speak at a financial literacy roundtable in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (April)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q1, Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUN/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

·       France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)

·       Poland Business Confidence (May)

·       Greece Current Account (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (April)

·       EARNINGS: Richemont

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/15), Balance of Trade (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Imports/Exports (April)/ Financial Stability Report

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (April)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Cyprus holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds National Assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Rise as Ceasefire Set to Expire, EU Leaders Meet in Cyprus, and Fed Chair-Nominee Warsh Gets His Confirmation Hearing

April 19 - 26, 2026

Markets are gripped by rapidly shifting signals from Washington and Tehran over peace talks, with President Trump projecting a deal within days. However, President Trump ended the week telling reporters on Friday he expected a deal “in a day or two” and that his special envoys, Vice President J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were heading to Islamabad, Pakistan for a second round of talks. But this all abruptly was upended when the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.  This promptly led to Iranian threats to strike back and denials they were going to send a negotiating team to Pakistan.  This is an extraordinarily fast-moving situation as the cease-fire is scheduled to end two days from now.  The next steps all depend on whether Iran sends a delegation to Islamabad or not.

Meanwhile, EU leaders meet in Cyprus this week in what could be a pivotal session amid rising geopolitical crises, especially the Iran situation.  The “informal” agenda includes discussing the Iranian situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine (Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to address the group), as well as progress of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).  The MFF is a nearly €2 trillion budget proposal that aims to, according to the EU, “align resources with shared priorities (from competitiveness and innovation to defense, cohesion and external action) under a modernized, flexible and transparent structure.”

But the Iran crisis will dominate the discussions as energy prices spike in Europe.  EU leaders are likely to push emergency energy measures.  We would also note this will be the last EU meeting for outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who lost power last week after 16 years in power.

In Washington, the main event is the Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chair-nominee Kevin Warsh. Despite likely approval, the process could be stalled by the ongoing Justice Department investigation of current Chair Jay Powell and senators planned opposition until it concludes.  As we have written in client notes, this could delay Warsh’s confirmation for months, directly impacting upcoming FOMC meetings in June and July.

Beyond Warsh’s confirmation, global markets are starting to focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting April 28–29, the European Central Bank interest rate meeting on April 29, and the Bank of England interest rate meeting on April 30. 

This week’s global flash April PMIs are highly anticipated to gauge the economic impact of the Iran War. In the U.S., March existing home sales (Monday), April PPI and Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), March retail sales (Tuesday), and the key March PCE Index (Friday) are headline releases; Canada reports March CPI on Monday.

In Europe, markets will focus on Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Wednesday), UK labor data (Tuesday), and March inflation (Wednesday), plus major German and French economic surveys released throughout the week.

In Asia, big events include Japan’s March CPI (Friday), Taiwan’s export orders (Tuesday), and South Korea’s Consumer Sentiment (Thursday).

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       White House Special Envoys Stev Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran (TBD).  On Tuesday, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to join them in the talks (Again, TBD).

·       The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – was set to expire.  Congress passed a short-term extension last week as they continue to battle out how to get a final agreement hammered out.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will make his first visits as leader to India and Vietnam through Friday. Lee, who is expected to be joined by a business delegation, will meet with his counterparts for talks, which are likely to focus on energy and supply chain cooperation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 20, 2026

Global

·       The UN’s 2026 ECOSOC Forum on Financing for Development begins New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       An Indian delegation will be in Washington for trade talks with the U.S.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein interviews Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf at the Economic Club of Washington.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations.

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Alaska Airlines, Wintrust

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines and the U.S. are set to commence their annual weekslong war games. Japan will make its debut as an active participant in the exercises, after Tokyo and Manila's reciprocal access agreement came into effect last year.

·       Mongolian President Khurelsuh Ukhnaa will visit Kazakhstan through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)/ FDI (YTD) (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       India Infrastructure Output (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to update parliament on the vetting failure of former British ambassador to Washington Lord Peter Mandelson and his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the keynote at the annual reception of Association of German Banks on the occasion of their 75th anniversary in Berlin, Germany.

·       Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen speaks at a conference in Espoo, Finland.

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Greece Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Italy Construction Output (February)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (February)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       EARNINGS: M&C Saatchi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Israel, Yom Hazikaron, or Memorial Day, a commemoration for fallen soldiers and victims of militant attacks, begins.

·       Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambican President Daniel Chapo will visit China through April 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Global

·       The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire at midnight.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

·       UN Climate Week event kicks off in the coastal city of Yeosu, running until Saturday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be next chair of the Federal Reserve.

·       The Bahamas will host the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP4) on Environmental Affairs of Latin America and the Caribbean in Nassau.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution Event, Washington, D.C.

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (March)/ Redbook (April/18)/ Business Inventories (February)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/17)

·       Colombia Imports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: United Airlines, 3M, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, Danaher, Quest Diagnostics, Halliburton, CapitalOne, Interactive Brokers, Chubb, Annaly, RTX, Northrup Grumman

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC) is expected to convene its 22nd session in late April. The Council of Chairpersons was expected to meet in mid-April to set the agenda and dates. The session is expected to review a draft revision to the Bid Invitation and Bidding Law and draft revision to the Water Law, with additional bills also possible. While largely legislative rather than headline-grabbing, this is a key mechanism through which CCP policy priorities are formalized into law.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q1/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q1/ Inflation Rate Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to unveil the fourth element of its security guarantees for Ukraine at this session, covering Defence reform, cyber and hybrid measures, demining, and arms control.  The Council will also consider unblocking a €90 billion loan for Ukraine for 2026–2027 and discuss the 20th package of sanctions against Russia.  Additional ministers will be discussing the crisis with Iran, and its impact on the broader region and Europe, the South Caucasus (including Georgia), and Sudan, with discussion expected on tightening pressure on Russia across all dimensions. 

·       There will be an informal video conference of EU Transport Ministers. They are expected to discuss the Iranian situation and its impact on the EU transport sector.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Ankara, Turkey for meetings with President Tayyip Erdoğan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, and Minister of National Defense General Yaşar Gûler.

·       The UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee has invited Sir Olly Robbins, the top Foreign Office civil servant who was sacked last week, to give evidence at its meeting today.  Robbins was the senior official who signed off on Peter Mandelson’s background check, clearing him to be named UK Ambassador to the United States – and covering up his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

·       In the UK, the RMT union is due to begin the first of two 24-hour strikes on Tube lines over four-day working week proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks followed by Q&A at an event organized by La Razón in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at the International Economics Symposium in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher gives opening remarks at a conference on Ukraine in Vienna, Austria.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge participates in a panel about decision-making psychology in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Average Earnings incl. & excl. Bonus/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       EARNINGS: Associated British Foods, British Land, Beiersdorf, Jupiter Fund Management, Thales, WR Berkley, Rio Tinto

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV continues his African tour with a visit to Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/17)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/17)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, IBM, Boeing, AT&T, Boston Scientific, Philip Morris, CME Group, SCX, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, Moody’s, Raymond James

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Criminal Court is set to release its decision on whether the case of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte falls within its jurisdiction, after his defense team filed an appeal. Duterte is currently in detention in the Netherlands on charges related to crimes against humanity for his role in masterminding a bloody campaign against the illegal drug trade in his country.

·       The TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium takes place in Santa Clara, California.  The company will provide updates on its latest technological progress and breakthroughs, with a heavy focus on artificial intelligence. Of particular interest will be the Taiwanese chip titan's comments on the state of cutting-edge chip production processes, including 3-nanometer, 2-nm, A16, A14 and beyond.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of states through April 24 in Leftkosia, Cyprus.  Leaders will first discuss the situation in Iran and how the EU can best address the war and its impact.  They will also address the challenging geopolitical environment and provide political guidance on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028–2034.  Key elements include:

• Dinner discussions on April 23 beginning with a briefing from President Zelenskyy on Russia's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. 

• Discussion of the conflict in Iran and the Middle East, including Europe's contribution to de-escalation, freedom of navigation, and the effects of high fossil fuel prices on European citizens and companies. 

• A working session on the morning of April 24 focused on the next MFF, including discussions on New Own Resources and the EU budget's contribution to the competitiveness agenda. 

• An informal working lunch with leaders from the Middle East region to discuss shared challenges and opportunities for cooperation.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum XI begins in Delphi, Greece. Speakers include president of the European Council António Costa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will take part in a panel in honor of Nick Stern" organized by London School of Economics and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London, UK.  IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also is scheduled to speak.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a conversation "Banking reform in the EU – How should the EU balance banking reform, risk and competitiveness?" organized by Bruegel in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Chief Economist Philip R. Lane will give the keynote speech at a high-level ESRB workshop on European safe assets in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later he will participate in a panel discussion at Pre-presidency Irish Financial Issues Conference organized by the Consulate General of Ireland, CFS at Goethe University, Hertie School Jacques Delors Centre and Frankfurt Chamber of Industry and Commerce in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a conversation with Nicolas Véron for Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual series and podcast "What now, Europe?".

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a panel discussion at EU finance conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is part of an FT fireside chat about private credit in London, England.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks at the launch of the Gender Balance Index 2026, organized by OMFIF.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Euro Area Government Budget to GDP 2025/ Government Debt to GDP 2025/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (April)

·       Poland Business Confidence (April)

·       Russia Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: ABB, Aberdeen, Danone, L’Oreal, Nordea Bank

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 23, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it will hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       G& Environmental Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro will meet with Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez in the Venezuelan city of Maracaibo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (March)/ PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/22)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       Warner Bros Discovery holds a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Paramount Skydance for $31 a share. If approved, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.

·       EARNINGS: Nokia, Intel, Newmont, Dow, Blackstone, American Express, Huntington Bank, American Airlines, Lockheed Martin, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Verisign, Comcast, Keurig Dr Pepper, Freeport-McMoRan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Two of India's politically crucial states -- West Bengal and Tamil Nadu -- hold elections at a time when the country is grappling with a cooking gas shortage driven by supply chain disruptions owing to the Middle East conflict, an issue that is expected to weigh on voters' minds. While Tamil Nadu in India's south is going to the polls in a single stage, West Bengal in the country's east will hold its second and final phase on April 29.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q1

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of the April 29-30 rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on central-bank independence in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Seim speaks in Umea, Sweden.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       France S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Wage Tracker Q1

·       EARNINGS: BP, Dassault Systémes, Heineken, London Stock Exchange Group, Nokia, Orang, Renault, Sainsbury’s, Sanofi, WHSmith, Nestlé

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

·       Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson speaks at the Empire Club of Canada.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/24)

·       Canada Budget Balance (February)

·       EARNINGS: Proctor & Gamble, Schlumberger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Auto China Show, one of the world's largest auto shows, begins in Beijing.  The event will spotlight China's emergence as a major EV player at a time when the Iran war has made alternatives to pricey gasoline more attractive. Thousands of exhibitors and visitors will descend on the venue for 10 days. Chinese EV makers will be looking to set themselves apart with new innovations, aiming to leave behind a bruising domestic price war and ramp up exports.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q1/ Consumer Confidence Q1

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Greece for talks Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Athens, Greece.

·       Russian Foreign Ministry holds its quarterly briefing in Moscow, Russia.

·       Today is St. George’s Day celebrations, commemorating England’s patron saint.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks at the bank’s Annual General Meeting in Bern, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Electrolux, Kuehn+Nagle, Mondi, Telia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House Correspondents Dinner will take place in Washington, D.C.  President Trump is scheduled to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day, commemorating the first major military action Australia and New Zealand took in World War I. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom Day in Portugal, commemorating the end of political dictatorship.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 26, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Center for China & Globalization holds the 12th China Global Think Tank Innovation Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

• April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

• April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.

• April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.

• April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.

• May 3 – 6 – The Milken Institute Global Conference is held in Beverly Hills, California.

• May 10 – Lebanon is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

• May 31 – Colombia holds presidential elections.

The Global Week Ahead

Moving Back to War in Iran, The World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings Begin, Israel and Lebanon To Hold Direct Talks, Implications of Hungary’s Election Earthquake, Canadian PM Carney Could Get a Parliamentary Majority, and Countless Central Bank Speeches This Week

April 12 - 19, 2026

It will be another tense week globally following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations this past Friday. While the ceasefire technically holds until April 21st, President Trump has ordered a blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and hostilities could erupt at any time. Oil prices have again spiked above $103 a barrel, and markets are bracing for new economic shocks.

The big questions we have are: 1) What happens if Chinese or Russian naval ships arrive to escort their commercial ships around the US naval ships, 2) What happens if any ships try to slip by the blockade – will the US Navy seize them or shell them?, and 3) Will the blockade trigger the Houthi’s in Yemen to engage in new attacks on the US Naval ships?

We would also note Israeli and Lebanese diplomats will be meeting in Washington on Monday on a potential ceasefire following weeks of intense Israeli attacks on Hezbollah forces.  But most observers are not hopeful for a breakthrough, as Israel will not agree unless Hezbollah is completely expelled from Lebanon.  

As the Iran War looms, the World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin today, with finance ministers and central bank governors convening for six days. The IMF will release its latest World Economic Outlook, and markets await any changes to forecasts.

On the sidelines, numerous speeches and panels will feature key central bankers like European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.  

Elsewhere, in European capitals this week, EU leaders will be analyzing the impact of Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party’s landslide win over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz Party after 16 years in power. will likely prove to help solidify and accelerate EU efforts for greater cohesion. The most obvious direct consequence is the release of sizeable EU financial and military aid to Ukraine, which had been blocked by Orbán.

Turning to North America, Canada holds elections in three legislative districts this week. Polls suggest Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is likely to secure at least two victories, potentially giving Carney a parliamentary majority and greater scope to align Canada’s policies more closely with Europe, both militarily and economically.

Aside from the World Bank and IMF meetings, markets will focus on the US PPI report on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, and industrial production on Thursday.

In Europe, the European Central Bank’s March meeting account and the UK’s February GDP numbers will be released on Tuesday.  

In Asia, the major reports of the week are China’s Q1 GDP, released on Tuesday, and the March economic data, published on Thursday.  

Finally, we would note that earnings season is kicking off this week.  We expect a chorus of concerns from major companies about the economic impact of the Iran War and its potential impact on businesses across the board.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 12, 2026

 Global

·       Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel this week to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

·       Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.  There are 35 candidates running for president, and it is almost assuredly going to lead to a run-off election.  Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit China through April 15th. resident Xi Jinping will meet with Sánchez, and Premier Li Qiang and NPC Standing Committee Chairman Zhao Leji will hold separate talks and meetings with him. This is Sánchez's fourth trip to China in four years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial resumes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 13, 2026

Global

·       The World Bank/International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings begin in Washington, D.C. and run through April 18th.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (EU). 

·       The OPEC monthly oil market report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate and House of Representatives return to work after a two-week break.  They will again try to find a deal on TSA paychecks and President Trump’s request for additional funding for the US military. 

·       The US House of Representatives potentially will consider expulsion votes or other disciplinary votes against four members this week: Representatives Sheila Chefilus-McCormick (D-FL), Cory Mills (R-FL), Tony Gonzales (R-TX), and Eric Swalwell (D-CA).

·       President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump will host King Willem-Alexander and Queen Máxima of the Netherlands at the White House and then host a state dinner for them in the evening.

·       Canada will hold three byelections that could result in a parliamentary majority for the ruling Liberal Party. 

·       Santiago, Chile hosts the Latin America Energy Summit through April 16th.  The summit brings together regional energy companies, engineering firms, infrastructure project developers, construction companies, investors, and government officials to discuss opportunities in Latin America's evolving energy industry.   The Summit takes place as Santiago also hosts the World Lithium Conference and the World Copper Conference.

·       The Semafor World Economy Conference begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through April 17.  More than 450 CEOs, US cabinet members, and foreign leaders will attend and speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States, Washington, D.C.

·       Canada Building Permits (February)

·       USA Existing Home Sales (March)/ Fed Miran Speech

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Goldman Sachs, FirstBank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 101st Trust Companies Conference.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser participates in a fireside chat at the Money Marketeers of New York University

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

·       India Inflation Rate (March)

·       China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (March)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Seoul.

·       French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot will host Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide in Paris.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C. this week.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 4th ''Wake Up, Spain" symposium organized by El Español, Invertia, and D+I (Disruptores e Innovadores) in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at the PSE-BdF Conference on International Macroeconomics in Historical Perspective in Paris, France.

·       Hungary Construction Output (February)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (February)

·       Turkey Current Account (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV will visit Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

·       The Africa Tourism Investment Conference begins in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on Libya sanctions. Afterwards, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· The IMF publishes its World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report.

·       The International Energy Administration releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks at a Turning Point USA tour stop in Georgia.

·       Finnish President Alexander Stubb will travel to Canada for meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks at the Strengthening America's Economy through Rural Investment: A Working Forum, Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a panel before the Semafor World Economy 2026 conference in Washington, D.C.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ PPI (March)/ Redbook (April/11)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/10)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (April)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (February)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Albertsons, Johnson & Johnson, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam President To Lam travels to China on the invitation of President Xi Jinping. This marks Lam's first state visit since he took the rare step of holding two of Hanoi's most powerful posts and, a week prior, became president.

·       The Philippines' House of Representative’s Justice Committee resumes deliberations on the merits of the impeachment complaints lodged against Vice President Sara Duterte. Her team continues to question the proceedings, which began in February after a one-year Supreme Court prohibition.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (February)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       India WPI Food Index (March)/ WPI Fuel (March)/ WPI Inflation (March)/ WPI Manufacturing (March)

·       EARNINGS: Toho, J Front Retailing

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Alexus Grnikevich in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a fireside chat at the Bretton Woods Committee’s Spring Summit 2026 in Washington, DC.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane gives a lecture at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia.  Later, he participates in the Macro/International Finance Lunch Roundtable at the University.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation at the 25th Forum Confcommercio in Rome, Italy.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat with Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Board Alan Taylor at Columbia University in New York.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene takes part in a fireside chat during the IMF-World Bank week at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (March)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (March)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (March)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: BMW, Kering, Publicis

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel and Lebanon will hold direct negotiations in Washington, D.C. The Israeli delegation will be led by Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the US, although Ron Dermer, an adviser to Netanyahu, is expected to play a prominent role behind the scenes. U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa is due to lead the effort on behalf of the Trump administration.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (March)/ Inflation Expectations (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (March)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UN Peacekeeping operations.   

·       The IMF publishes its fiscal monitor.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing .

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on Consumer Compliance Supervision and Regulation at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) Just Economy Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision ice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks on bank regulation at the  Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import Prices (March)/ Export Prices (March)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/10)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

·       El Salvador PPI (March)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Progressive, PNC, M&T Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Canton Fair, one of China’s largest trade shows, opens.  There will be exhibitors touting everything from vehicles and electronics to furniture and toys. This spring's expo, which runs until early May, comes as companies in China and around the world grapple with supply chain disruptions from the Iran war.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (March)/ Export Prices (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (February)

·       India Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (February)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at The Economic Magic of Equal Opportunity for Women Conference in Washington, DC

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion entitled “Deglobalization and Fragmentation: Mid-Term Challenges for Central Banks” at the 2026 IIF Global Outlook Forum “Deciphering Risks, Defining Opportunities” in Washington,

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote address at the"20th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States" organized by The Program on International Financial Systems (PIFS) and Harvard Law School in Washington, DC.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a  speech  at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC,

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at Semafor World Economy and separately at an Atlantic Council event in Washington, DC.

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (February)

·       Romania Industrial Production (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France Inflation Rate (March)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (March)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (February)/ Residential Property Prices (February)

·       Sebia Building Permits (February)

·       EARNINGS: Hermes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Israel Business Confidence (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Global

·       G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Washington, DC.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the Washington Economic Festival: Global Macro Sessions, Washington, D.C.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote speech before the FHLBNY 2026 Member Symposium organized by the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York.

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)

·       USA Continuing Jobless Claims (April/04)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (April)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April)I/10/ Fed Miran Speech/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/16)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Netflix, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, BNY, Travelers, Citizens Financial Corp., Abbott, Alcoa, Cohen & Steers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/11)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full Time Employment Chg. (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Part Time Employment Chg. (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: TSMC, Wipro, Infosys

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers in Lefkosia, Cyprus through April 17th.

·       In the UK, the Covid-19 Inquiry report on vaccines and therapeutics will be published.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a panel at the Washington Economic Festival: Global Macro Sessions organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, DC. Later, he participates in an IMF Spring Meetings panel on "Keeping Macroeconomic Frameworks Fit for Purpose in a Shock-Prone World" in Washington, DC.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion at the New Frontiers in Banking and Capital Markets Conference in Milan, Italy

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Program on International Financial Systems and Harvard Law School, 20th Annual Symposium ‘building the financial system of the 21st century: an agenda for Europe and the United States’, Washington DC.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council members Martin Kocher and Dimitar Radev speak at an Atlantic Council event in Washington, D.C.

·       Euro Area CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Great Britain Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ GDP (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)/ SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (March)

·       Serbia Current Account (February)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/10)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (March)

·       EARNINGS: Bosch, Tesco, Icade, Viscofan, Pernod Ricard

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, April 17, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks about the economic outlook at the Auburn University Department of Economics David Kaserman Memorial Lecture, Auburn, Alabama.

·       USA Fed Balance Sheet (April/15)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/17

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

·       EARNINGS: Regions, Fifth Third Bank, Ally, Truist, Ericsson, State Street, Marsh & McLennan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Food Inflation (March)

·       Singapore Balance of Trade (March)/ Non-Oil Exports (March)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/31)/ Deposit Growth (March/31)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

·       EARNINGS:  HDFC, ICICI

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will chair the next meeting of the CIS Council of Foreign Ministers in Moscow, with Turkmenistan holding the CIS chairmanship for 2026. The ministers will exchange views on international and regional issues and discuss priority areas of CIS cooperation, including in the context of the organization's 35th anniversary. Decisions are expected on strengthening foreign policy coordination, expanding law enforcement cooperation, and granting CIS basic organization status to two Russian educational institutions.

·       Following the CIS meeting, Foreign Minister Lavrov will travel to Antalya, Turkey to participate in the Fifth Antalya Diplomatic Forum at the invitation of Turkey's Foreign Minister. The forum is a high-profile multilateral gathering with broad attendance from Global South and NATO-adjacent states — exactly the audience Russia wants to address on Ukraine, Iran, and sanctions.

·       Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez hosts Brazilian President Lula in Barcelona.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in "In conversation with Claudia Buch," organized by the Institute of International Finance in Washington, DC.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the Barclays breakfast roundtable in Washington, D.C.

·       Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (February)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (February)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Belarus GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Syria, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Global

·        The World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – expires.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany, and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out 

• Week of April 20 (To be confirmed – hearing has been rescheduled from April 9th) – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely that the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members have vowed to hold up the vote until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.

• April 23 – The European Central Bank’s non-monetary policy meeting.

• April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

• April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.

• April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.

• April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Facing Trump’s Latest Deadline, Taiwan’s Opposition Leader Travels to Beijing for Meetings, Peru and Hungary Hold Elections, and Markets Brace For The First Economic Reports Reflecting the Impact

April 5 - 12, 2026

We hope you had a peaceful Passover or Easter holiday.  The geopolitical week ahead will again be dominated by the escalating war in Iran.  On Monday morning, the latest deadline President Trump gave Iranian leaders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or, according to a profane Truth Social post, Iran will face massive bombings “and complete destruction” of all Iranian electrical power plants, bridges, and other civilian infrastructure. 

President Trump suggested in a press interview Sunday that his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are working through back channels to find a peaceful solution.  And he extended – again – the deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

As we said, the Iran situation will dominate global markets' attention, but there is an interesting event taking place this week in China.  Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party (KMT) opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, will be traveling to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese leaders.  Cheng is going at the invitation of President Xi and is considered a high-stakes gambit.  But it could also lead to further meetings between senior KMT officials and Beijing to de-escalate tensions between Taiwan and China.  She makes the trip as the KMT continue to stall legislation in parliament funding an additional $40 billion in defense spending. 

Two major elections are taking place this week, in Hungary and Peru. Hungary's parliamentary elections on Sunday are shaping up to be a difficult battle for 16-year incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Polls suggest the race is neck and neck between Orbán's Fidesz Party and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party. Orbán, a close ally of both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, asked President Trump to campaign for him this week. However, with Trump preoccupied by the Iran conflict, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to travel to Budapest to meet with Orbán.

In Peru, a record 35 candidates are running for president. The latest polls suggest conservative Keiko Fujimori — running for president for the fourth time — holds the lead, though a runoff is almost certain given the size of the field. The elections come after a prolonged period of political instability. Former President Pedro Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress in December 2022 and was subsequently impeached. His Vice President, Dina Boluarte, assumed the presidency but was removed by Congress in October 2025 for "moral incapacity." She was succeeded by the President of Congress, José Jeri, who became the country's seventh president in nine years — only to be removed in February 2026 after it emerged that he had held undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman under government investigation. Jeri was replaced by José María Balcázar, then President of Congress, who assumed the interim presidency — the eighth in nine years — to oversee the transition to these elections.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be looking at the U.S. March CPI on Friday.  That report is expected to kick off a series of reports showing the negative impact of the Iran War on the global economy.

Also on the U.S. calendar this week: the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the March ISM Services report (Monday), the February PCE (Thursday), and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Friday).

In Europe, the European Central Bank's Governing Council will convene for a retreat on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the economic outlook. Germany also releases trade and industrial production figures this week.

In Asia, China releases its March PPI and CPI reports on Friday. Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Survey on Wednesday, Consumer Confidence on Thursday, and PPI on Friday. The Bank of Korea meets on interest rates — with no change expected — and Taiwan reports CPI on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday.

·       Eight Opec+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — meet to decide on their output policy for May.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia’s Daylight Savings Ends.

·       Kyoto, Japan holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

Monday, April 6, 2026

Global

·        The G-24 meeting is being held in advance of the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to comply with his demand for them to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is today (10:05 a.m. EST).  Trump will then hold a press conference with US military leaders at 1:00 p.m.

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Easter holiday.

·       Chilean President Jose Antonio Kast visits Argentina to meet with President Javier Milei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       USA ISM Services PMI (March)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam's new National Assembly members, elected in March for five-year terms, start their first legislative session. The rubber-stamp parliament will vote on the country's top leaders, including president and prime minister, in addition to debating laws.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       AMRO is set to release its annual regional economic outlook, offering an assessment of long-term growth trends across Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and China. The reports are expected to underscore the impact of rising uncertainty in global trade and heightened geopolitical tensions.

·        Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Most European governments are closed in observance of Easter Monday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       It is Easter Monday in Europe.  Most financial markets and banks are closed as is the European Central Bank.

·       Spain Unemployment Change (March)

·       Serbia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Jordan PPI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of Burundi celebrates President Ntaryamira Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market at the University of Detroit Mercy College of Business Administration Charlton Center for Responsible Investing Speaker Series, Detroit, Michigan.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ Redbook (April/04)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (April)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations/Consumer Credit Change (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/03)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (March)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Levis, Skillsoft, XCEL Brands, Exxon Q1 preview

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Finance ministry and central bank officials from the 11 ASEAN member states will meet in Manila, the Philippines through Friday to discuss financial services integration, regulatory cooperation and capital market development.

·       Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT), makes a closely watched visit to China. She is expected to meet President Xi during her stay through Sunday, which would mark the first engagement between the sitting leaders of the Communist Party and KMT in a decade. Beijing refuses to talk with the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party administration in Taiwan, which sees Cheng's visit as part of an effort to undercut it and undermine defense cooperation with the U.S.

·       The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is set to release its annual survey of Southeast Asian attitudes on regional strategic developments and issues impacting members of the ASEAN bloc. The report, done in January and February before the Iran war, covers topics such as the South China Sea, rising protectionism and nationalism, as well as U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump.

·       SmartTech Asia, an expo focused on AI, digital payments and smart identity solutions, is held in Mumbai through April 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)

·       Japan Household Spending (February)/ Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)/ Household Spending (February)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Budget Balance (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (March)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukrainian Parliament starts the voting process on reforms required to secure external financing. The final vote is expected on Wednesday.

·       UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow to discuss her candidacy for the UN Secretary General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council attends a retreat hosted by the Banque of France through Wednesday, April 8th.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)

·       Spain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Italy S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       France S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       GITEX AFRICA, Africa’s flagship technology and innovation summit, takes place in Marrakech and runs through April 9.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Vice President JD Vance starts a two-day visit, meeting Viktor Orbán and his officials ahead of voting in what is seen as the prime minister’s toughest election contest since 2010.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets with President Trump in Washington through April 12th.  Rutte comes after renewed threats by President Trump to withdraw from NATO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gives keynote remarks and speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce in St. George, Utah.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (March)

·       US Federal Reserve FMOC Minutes

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/03)/ Used Car Prices (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks & Gasoline Change (April/03)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Delta Airlines, Richardson Electronics, Applied Blockchain

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Touch Taiwan, one of Taiwan's biggest industry gatherings of the first half of the year, kicks off in Taipei with a focus on smart displays, advanced manufacturing, industrial materials, green technology and more. Exhibitors include Delta Electronics, Innolux, Merck and Corning.

·       The QS China Summit is held in Shenzhen, China through April 9.  The Summit is considered a premier forum for academics, industry experts, and decision-makers on the future of higher education in China. It's a niche but well-attended event drawing university and corporate leaders.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Current Account (February)

·       Japan Current Account (February)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (March/31)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts the Council of Heads of Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation.

·       In the UK, resident doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association, begin six days of strike action after rejecting the government’s pay offer.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (February)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       France Current Account (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       EARNINGS: Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Inflation Rate (March)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).

·       International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the spring meetings curtain-raiser speech in advance of the Spring IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will give a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada’s Liberal Party’s biennial convention begins in Montreal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (March)/ Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Personal Income (February)/ Personal Spending (February)/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/04)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/08)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (February)

·       Colombia PPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Blackberry, ClearSign, WD-40 Company, Constellation Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines celebrates the Day of Valor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/04)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (February)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Fast Retailing, Seven & I, Tata Consultancy Services

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day official visit, including a meeting with Pope Leo XIV.

·       Today is Kosovo Constitution Day, a national holiday.

·       The Politico European Pulse Forum begins in Barcelona, Spain, and runs through April 10th.  Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, European Commission Executive Vice President for Competition Teresa Ribera, along with a number of other EU and Spanish government officials and CEOs will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Member Olaf Sleijpen gives a keynote speech at the DNB pension seminar in Amsterdam.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before a European Parliament economic committee in his capacity as chair of the Financial Stability Board.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

·       Spain Industrial Production (February)

·       Greece Industrial Production (February)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The WiT Africa Conference, which is focused on the Asian travel industry in Africa, kicks off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 10, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Bilderberg Meeting takes place outside of Washington, D.C., through April 12th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Court of International Trade to consider the legality of President Donald Trump’s latest round of global tariffs, in lawsuits filed by 24 states and two small businesses.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (February)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (March)/ Participation Rate (March)/ Average Hourly Wages (March)

·       USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Factory Orders (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Asia Development Bank (ADB) is set to release its annual regional economic outlook for Asia.

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

·       Japan Bank Lending (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

·       China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Sales (March)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/20)/ Deposit Growth (March/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (March)/ GDP (March)

·       Earnings: Yaskawa Electric

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at an event entitled "Economía y Territorio: Claves para un desarrollo inclusivo" organised by Cámara Oficial de Comercio, Industria y Servicios de Soria in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Sodexo

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Djibouti holds its presidential elections. incumbent president Ismaïl Omar Guelleh who won a fifth term in 2021, has been president since 1999. Originally ineligible for a sixth term due to the age limit of 75 that Guelleh imposed as part of the reforms, Djibouti passed a constitutional amendment in 2025 that lifted age limits, allowing him to run again.

·       The 9th Indian Ocean Conference begins in Mauritius and runs through April 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Global

·       The U.S. temporary license for seaborne Russian oil sales is set to expire.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 12, 2026

Global

·       Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

·       Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.  There are 35 candidates running for president an almost assuredly will lead to a run-off election.  Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin holds Presidential elections. The ruling coalition and Romuald Wadagni, current minister of state for Finance and Cooperation and Talon’s designated successor, are likely to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

• April 13 – 19 – The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings are to be held in Washington, D.C., bringing together finance ministers, central bank governors, and other officials from around the world.

• Week of April 13 – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members of the committee have vowed to hold up the confirmation until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Intensifies, The EU Parliament Gets Ready to Vote on the EU-US Trade Framework, China’s Boao Forum Begins, and Global PMIs Will Show the Impact of the Iran War

March 22 - 29, 2026

The US/Israeli/Iran War looks to both continue and possibly intensify this week.  President Trump delivered an ultimatum to Iran on Saturday that expires late Monday, demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz or the US would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants.  Iran responded, saying if Trump did this, they would target all US-linked energy facilities in the region – including energy infrastructure and water desalination facilities linked to the US.

Energy markets are already struggling to handle the growing regional risk, with Brent Crude at around $112 per barrel.   United Airline CEO Scott Kirby warned on Friday he could see oil hitting $175 per barrel and stay elevated until 2027.   And Saudi Arabian energy officials also said on Friday that oil could hit $180 per barrel, creating a global recession.

Additionally, there have been numerous reports the US is considering putting “boots on the ground” in Iran to take out key nuclear sites and other strategic assets.  A detachment of 4,500 U.S. Marines is headed to the region as well as a U.S. Army infantry battalion.  The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve an additional $200 billion request of Congress for funding for the war.

Elsewhere this week, the European Parliament is expected on March 26th to vote on whether to approve the trade framework with the US.  The vote has been held up for weeks following President Trump’s recent order to launch Section 301 investigations – which will almost certainly lead to new tariffs on Europe.  The deal almost blew apart, but US and EU diplomats appear to have been able to coble it back together.  The vote, if successful, will scrap tariffs on US industrial goods.

Also, in Europe this week, Denmark holds snap parliamentary elections.  Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is seeking a third term and is seen as a tough negotiator with President Trump who held off his efforts to buy and/or invade Greenland.  Polling suggests she will win. 

Italy holds a constitutional referendum on Sunday and Monday that, if approved, will restructure the judiciary.  The vote is seen as an important test of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s power.

In Asia this week, China hosts the 25th Boao Forum in Hainan.  Oftentimes described as the Asian version of the World Economic Forum in Davos, it brings Asian government and business leaders together for three days. 

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, markets – which are shell-shocked by the impact and growing negative implications of the Iran War – are looking intensely at the global flash PMIs out on Tuesday. The inflation indicators for March are likely to be an important marker for the global economic outlook. 

In the US this week, the Consumer Confidence Index is out on Tuesday, Durable Goods on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday.

In Europe, Germany releases its Ifo Survey on Wednesday and the UK releases their inflation reports on Wednesday.  And the Eurozone flash CPI print is out on Friday.  Markets will be paying particular attention to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech on Wednesday for any suggestion of revisions to the central bank’s inflation outlook.

In Asia this week, Japan’s Shunto results are out on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.  China releases industrial profits on Friday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Bolivia holds regional elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam announces election results from its twice-a-decade National Assembly elections.  Following this, the parliament then meets to pick a prime minister and a president for a five-year term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds its second round of municipal elections.

·       The German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, home to BASF and a major auto-parts industry, holds its parliament election.

·       Slovenia holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy votes on a referendum changing the justice system which will separate the career paths of judges and splits Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.  The reform effort is one of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s primary government reform agenda items.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 23, 2026

Global

·       President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina continues to commemorate Truth & Justice Day, the conclusion of a four-day holiday.  Banks, government, and markets are closed.

·       US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor visits the Maldives and Sri Lanka. His meetings are expected to focus on “quiet strategic signaling” to the two countries to ensure US access to major ports.

·       The annual CERAWeek conference runs in Houston through March 27 to examine the future of energy, climate, technology and geopolitics

·       The Wall Street Journal CFO Council Summit is held in Palo Alto, California, through March 24th.

·       In the US, Space Science Week begins at the National Academy of Sciences Building in Washington, D.C., with industry experts discussing the future directions of space science and the commercial galactic flight industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ Construction Spending (January)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen begins a three-day visit to Australia, including a meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, with the aim of striking a trade deal.

· Eid al-Fitr is observed in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and most of the Middle East.  Markets are closed.

·       Today is Pakistan Day, a national holiday.  All banks and markets are closed.

·       The Milken Global Investors’ Symposium is held in Hong Kong with a focus on shifting capital flows, technology and regional growth shaping Asia-Pacific strategies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The second and final day of the country’s referendum on judicial system changes, a key reform agenda of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government. Voters must decide whether to separate the career paths of judges and split Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.

·       Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer answers questions about his government’s performance from MPs on Westminster’s Liaison Committee. Outside London, economics think-tank The Growth Commission hosts Mending Britain’s Broken Economy, a conference in Buckingham, where guest speakers will include former PM Liz Truss.

·       Albania celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.  Banks and government are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the House of the Euro event on APPIA Roadmap in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lanes gives a speech at the ECB=SAFE-RECEA International Conference on the Climate-Macro-Finance Interface (3CMFI) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/13)/ Central Government Debt (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Wage Tracker Q1/ Consumer Confidence Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (January)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Eid al-Fitr is observed across most of the Middle East with markets closed.

·       Iran observes Nowruz, the Persian New Year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Eid al-Fitr is observed in Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt.

·       Angola celebrates Southern Africa Liberation Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 24, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East [2334] followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to meet with oil and gas CEOs to discuss spiking energy prices.

·       Anthropic is due in court, with a US judge hearing arguments in the AI company’s dispute with the federal government.

·       In Argentina, it is the Memorial Day for Truth and Justice holiday. Financial markets closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Member Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook and community development at the National Community Investment Conference, Phoenix, Arizona.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       Chile PPI (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Economic Activity (January)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Nonfarm Productivity Q4/ Unit Labour Costs Q4/ Redbook (March/21)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Money Supply (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/20)/

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 begins in the eponymous coastal town, which is part of the city of Qionghai, Hainan. It runs until Friday. Known as Asia's answer to Davos and marking its 25th anniversary this year, participants will discuss economic cooperation at a time of serious global tension and conflict. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is expected to be among the attendees.

·       The EU-Vietnam Global Gateway Business and Investment Forum is held in Hanoi, Vietnam.

·       German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will visit Japan through March 25th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (February)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       EARNINGS: Xiaomi

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Denmark holds parliamentary elections. Social Democrats are expected to stay in power, albeit with what is forecast to be the party’s weakest results in a hundred years.

·       A delegation from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will meet EU representatives in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg Fixed Income Forum 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives concluding remarks at the 13th ECB conference on Forecasting Techniques “Artificial intelligence in the analysis of economic narratives, forecasting, and risk assessment” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia and SUERF Conference on “Central Banking Amid Persistent Global Shifts: Fostering Stability, Innovation, and Reliance” in Skopje, Macedonia.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (February)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q4

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)/ CBI Distributive Trades (March)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EAERNINGSEARNINGS: YouGov, Kingfisher, Henry Boot, Bellway

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 6th Africa Fintech Forum takes place in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)/ Consumer Confidence Q1

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins at the Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center in Grapevine, Texas. Speakers include former British prime minister Liz Truss, Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, deputy attorney-general Todd Blanche and political strategist Steve Bannon. It runs until Saturday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran takes part in a conversation at the

Digital Asset Summit 2026 in New York.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (March)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/20)/ Current Account Q4/ Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (March/20)

·       Paraguay PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: Chewy, Paychex, Beyond Meat

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Lawmakers in the Philippines House of Representatives are set to conduct hearings for evidence and witnesses related to the two impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte over her alleged misappropriation of public funds and threats against high-ranking officials. The proceedings against Duterte could eventually lead to a formal plenary vote and a Senate trial.

·       The Bangkok International Motor Show begins and runs through April 5th.  All the major auto manufacturers in Asia are expected to be represented.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia Inflation Rate (February)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (February)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (February)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (March/15)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (February)

·       EARNINGS: Anta

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday with banks and markets closed.

·       San Marino celebrates the Anniversary of the Arango, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde vies the President’s Address at The ECB and Its Watchers conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen chairs a panel entitled "Macroprudential framework review: main issues to be addressed" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a panel discussion on "Diversity of the EU banking sector: what ways forward?" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.  Later, he chairs a panel entitled “Sustainability Risks” at the seminar.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene sits on a panel at the Jefferies Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference in London.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI Input (February)/ PPI Output (February)/ Retail Price Index (February)

·       Spain PPI (February)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Tuominen Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q1/ Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Kenya International Investment Conference takes place through March 27 in Nairobi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Global

·       G7 foreign ministers meeting begins in Cerney, France, concluding tomorrow.  The focus of the meeting will be the multiple crisis’ in the Middle East and the War in Ukraine. South Korea will attend as a guest participant.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). 

·       The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins in Yaoundé, Cameroon continuing until Sunday. The conference will be chaired by Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, Cameroon’s trade minister.

·       The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report.

·       Pope Leo visits Morocco.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In New York, there will be a U.S. court hearing for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Reflections on Financial Stability” at the Professor Andrew Metrick & Yale Program on Financial Stability Presents Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Governor Lisa Cook, New Haven, Connecticut.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran discusses the Fed’s Balance Sheet at the Economic Club of Miami Event, Miami, Florida.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Energy Effects” at the Global Perspectives Speaker Series in Dallas, Texas.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barrs gives a speech on the economy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (March)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (January)

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks at Brandon Chamber of Commerce “on factors affecting Canada’s economic outlook and financial system”

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (March/21)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March/14)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/20)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing/ Composite Index (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/26)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/25)/ Fed Miran Speech/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ Fed Barr Speech

·       Colombia Business Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (January)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Newsmax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, today is Ram Navami, the Hindu festival celebrating the birth of Rama. Financial markets closed

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Kent Speech 

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/21)/ Coincident Index Final (January)/ Leading Economic Index Final (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (February)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       EARNINGS: Xtep

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte presents his 2025 annual report at the military alliance’s Brussels headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Yaoundé, Cameroon on the margins of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 14th Ministerial Conference being held through March 29.

·       The Faroe Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Eesti Pank’s Ragnar Nurkse Memorial Lecture Series followed by on-stage conversation with governor Madis Müller in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a speech on "The ECB's perspective on the SIU policy" at Savings and Investment Union (SIU) seminar in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Alan Taylor, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at Exante Data’s 10-year anniversary macro conference in New York.

·       Alan Taylor, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at Exante Data’s 10-year anniversary macro conference in New York

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence APR

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB General Council Meeting/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Loans to Companies (February)/ Loans to Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)/ ECB Machado Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       France Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Business Climate Indicator (March)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Greece Total Credit (February)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/20)

·       Great Britain BoE Taylor Speech

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Hapag-Lloyd, Bertelsmann

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (February)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, March 27, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Annual Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Fiscal Balance (February)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (January)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (March)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ Fed Daly Speech/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/27)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ Wholesale Inventories (February)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Argentina Current Account Q4

·       Panama Current Account Q4

·       EARNINGS: Carnival

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (March)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ PPI (February)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)/ Current Account Final Q4

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)

·       Singapore Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Malaysia PPI (February)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (February)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/15)/ Deposit Growth (March/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/20)

·       EARNINGS: BYD

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets via video conference. EU ministers will be discussing the situation in the Middle East and its likely outcome on the EU economy, including energy markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion "Cyber and digital operation resilience" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.  Later, ECB Board Member Patrick Montagner participates on a panel discussion entitled “Private Assets and NBFI: Opportunities and Challenges.”

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a guest lecture at the Department of Economics at University of Zurich in Zurich, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will visit the Philippines through March 29th.  Hegseth is meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro to reiterate that the 1951 US- Philippines Defense Treaty is "ironclad." Crucially, he is expected to confirm that it covers armed attacks on Philippine Coast Guard vessels anywhere in the South China Sea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Together Alliance “Together against the far-right” national demonstration in London with speakers including Green Party leader Zack Polanski, former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and actors Christopher Eccleston, Mark Rylance, Maxine Peake and Toby Jones.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion at workshop on “The banking system and today’s geopolitical challenges” organized by Fondazione Banco di Napoli in Napoli, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Dubai, the running of the 30th Dubai World Cup, billed as one of the world’s richest horse races, is scheduled to take place (but may be cancelled due to the ongoing war with Iran).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The 58th Conference of African Ministers of Finance (ECA) meets in Tangier, Morocco. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 29, 2026

Global

·       Today in the Christian world is Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto arrives in Japan for a three-day state visit, during which he will meet Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and be the main guest at a court lunch with Emperor Naruhito.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

European Daylight Savings Time and British Summer Time begins. Set your clock one hour forward!

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Madagascar commemorates Martyrs’ Day, a public holiday.

·       The Central African Republic celebrates Barthelemy Boganda Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.