The Global Week Ahead

US – Iran Negotiations Drag On, Venezuelan President and US Secretary of State Discuss Oil With India, Colombia Holds Presidential Elections, and Markets Await Inflation Reports

May 24 - 31, 2026

While Washington is quiet this weekend in honor of Memorial Day, negotiations between the US and Iran continue, but seemingly in fits and starts.  Both Iranian and US media reports suggested Friday that significant progress had been made toward finalizing a peace deal. 

But as details began to leak out, President Trump faced sharp criticism from Republican lawmakers, including Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who said a 60-day extension of the ceasefire “would be a disaster.”  President Trump publicly fired back at them, but it appears he also started adjusting the draft terms of the deal being hammered out with Iran.  Accords as part of the ultimate deal.  And he seemed to even suggest in a Truth Social post that he would be open to Iran signing onto the Accords (which seems highly unlikely as official Iranian policy has long called for the outright eradication of Israel).

It is understood that many of those Arab countries have asked Trump to refrain from any military attacks this week as the Hajj is underway through May 29th with large numbers of Muslim pilgrims traveling in the region.  Meanwhile, Iranian officials said no deal was “imminent,” but conceded that progress had been made.  

Additionally, the US will host the next round of Israeli–Lebanese peace talks in Washington later this week.  However, those talks may be canceled – and also impact the US-Iranian talks – after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to step up attacks on Hezbollah forces after right-wing members of his cabinet demanded a full-scale resumption of Israel’s offensive in Lebanon. 

In India this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US) meetings to discuss mutual defense issues.  While Rubio is there, it is expected acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriquez will travel to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss oil sales, a move strongly supported by the US.  Iran is highly dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East and has been struggling to deal with shortages in recent weeks.

We are also watching for a possible visit to North Korea by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Xi’s security advance team is in Pyongyang now, making arrangements for a visit.  Xi is reported to want to help broker better relations among North Korea, the US, and South Korea.  But China no longer has the influence it once had over North Korea since the start of the Ukraine War, as North Korea has grown closer to Russia, sending large numbers of soldiers to fight and selling large quantities of munitions.  It will be Xi’s first visit to the Hermit Kingdom since 2019.

Here in the Americas, Colombia is holding hotly contested presidential elections next Sunday to replace President Gustavo Petro, who is constitutionally barred from running again.  The contest has effectively consolidated into a three-way race between candidates representing sharply divergent visions for the country: Iván Cepeda, who represents the far left and is polling around 44%, Abelardo De la Espriella, who represents the hard right and is polling in the mid 20% range, and Paloma Valencia, who represents the center-right, is floating in the 18 – 21% range in polls.   

It is highly likely that a run-off will take place.  The critical sub-contest is therefore between De la Espriella and Valencia for the second runoff slot, with conservative voters split between them, and the other ten candidates far behind. A weighted average of recent polls suggests that Cepeda could narrowly lose to Valencia and tie De la Espriella in a runoff scenario. 

Also, this week, Pope Leo XIV releases his first encyclical -Magnifica Humanitas – on the use of artificial intelligence (AI).  It is expected to warn society of the grave risks of unfettered AI for humanity.  According to the New York Times, the Holy Father calls for: government regulation of the private companies that are driving the development of A.I., protection and retraining for workers whose jobs are threatened, education to help students think critically about the technology, action to protect children from violent, hypersexualized or fake information online that is often generated by A.I., and safeguards to ensure that humans, not artificial intelligence, remain responsible for all decisions regarding the use of weapons.

 Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, the big focus is on inflation reports from the US, the Eurozone, and Japan.   

In the US, the April PCE will be released on Thursday.  Also out on Thursday is the durable goods orders report.  Both reports come after Tuesday’s Conference Board consumer confidence release.

In Asia this week, Japan’s Tokyo CPI print is out on Friday, as are the April industrial production and retail sales reports.   China releases industrial profits on Wednesday.

Finally, in Europe this week, May inflation prints are out on Friday for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.  All should be good reflective indicators of the economic damage caused so far by the Iran conflict.  We will also get the European Central Bank minutes out this week.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Cyprus holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds National Assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 25, 2026

Global

·       Pope Leo XIV releases his new encyclical on AI – Magnifica Humanitas – warning of the risk of AI to civilization. You can read it HERE.

·       The United Nations is closed for the holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Memorial Day, a national holiday.  Financial markets and banks are closed.

·       Today is Revolution Day in Argentina, a holiday.

·        U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit India through May 26th.

·       The United States and Mexico hold their first official round of negotiations as part of a review of their trilateral trade deal with Canada (USMCA).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for a meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang sometime this week (but no official announcement has been made, and the meeting may take place in early June – Reuters and other news services report Chinese security teams and advance teams have been in the North Korean capital preparing for a visit). 

·       Venezuela’s Interim President Delcy Rodriguez travels to India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The meeting will mostly focus on oil supplies for India.

·       Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will visit China through May 28th.

·       Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan will visit China through May 26th.

·       Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnivirakoul will visit France through May 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (March/ Leading Index (March)/ PPI (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Whit Monday, a holiday in most European countries.  Most financial markets and banks are closed.

·       A delegation of the Security and Defence Committee will travel to Canada to hold policy discussions with officials, political counterparts, and experts, on deepening EU-Canada defense cooperation, including the country’s participation in the SAFE program. MEPs will also discuss Canada's participation in peacekeeping operations, NATO, support for Ukraine, Arctic security, and the supply of critical raw materials.

·       The UK Parliament is in recess until June 1.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May)

·       Poland Retail Sales (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       EARNINGS: Salvatore Ferragamo, Pharma Mar

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Jordan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Development Bank will hold its annual meeting in the capital of the Republic of the Congo, Brazzaville, from May 29th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Upholding the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter and Strengthening the UN-centered International System. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the session.  UN Secretary-General António Guteres will deliver remarks.

·       Muslims around the world will observe Eid al-Adha through May 30th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are out of session this week.

·       The Texas Republican senate primary run-off is held.

·       NASA will hold a press conference to update on its moon base plans and highlight progress towards a sustained presence on the lunar surface.

·       Today is Independence Day in Guyana, a national holiday.

·       President Trump gets a medical and dental checkup at Walter Reed Hospital in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nicolas Vincent, External Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO).

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (April)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

·       EARNINGS: AutoZone, Semtech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India will host the Quad foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi, with the ongoing Iran war expected to figure prominently in discussions. The gathering, to be presided over by Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, is scheduled to be attended by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Marcos begins a four-day visit to Japan.  This coincides with the 70th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between Manila and Tokyo. The visit will feature a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, during which the two leaders are expected to upgrade relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership and discuss critical regional issues like maritime security and energy cooperation.

·       The MRO Greater China Industry Show begins in Beijing, China.  Approximately 200 domestic and international exhibitors will be there, focusing on “operation and maintenance of domestic large aircraft and the digital transformation of civil aviation.”  

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore     Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production  (April)

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index  (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Economic Minster Katherina Reiche travels to Beijing, China for meetings.  BASF CEO Markus Kamieth will accompany her.  BASF recently opened a €9 billion complex in Zhanjiang – BASF’s largest investment ever.

·       The EU’s 8th Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Brussels. The meeting will serve to confirm the fulfilment of the interim benchmarks by Albania and to set closing benchmarks for Cluster 1 'Fundamentals', including Chapters 23 - judiciary and fundamental rights, and 24 - justice, freedom and security, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform and economic criteria. The Cluster also includes Chapters 5 – public procurement, 18 – statistics, and 32 - financial control.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the availability and affordability of fertilizers in the EU, following the presentation of the Fertilizer Action Plan by the European Commission.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will start preparations for the June European Council meeting by discussing the annotated draft agenda.  The agenda includes a discussion among the European Council on Ukraine, the Middle East, the next multiannual financial framework, overall global economic challenges, common European defense and security issues, and migration.

·       The UK Parliament is out of session this week.

·       Today is Independence Day in Georgia, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes its Consolidated Financial Statement for the Eurosystem.

·       The European Central Bank presents “Financial Stability Review Special Feature: Stress in global private credit and its implications for euro area financial stability.”

·       UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (May)/ CBI Distributive Trades (May)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Spain PPI (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Finance Magnates Africa Summit, which focuses on trading, takes place in Cape Town.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)             

Wednesday, May 27, 2026 

Global

·       The United Nations is closed for an official holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to New York for a two-day set of meeting with institutional investors, CEOs, and other business leaders.  While there, he will address the Economic Club of New York on his economic agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy at the Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference, Tokyo, Japan.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on AI, the economy, and the financial system at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) Policy Forum, Stanford, California.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in “Policy Panel Discussion 1: Monetary Policy and Imbalances" before the 2026 Monetary Policy from New Perspectives Conference hosted by the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/22)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/22)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook  (May/23)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/22)

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)

·       EARNINGS: Salesforce, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, National Bank of Canada, Agilent, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Best Buy, EQB, Marvell

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong International Airport opens an expanded Terminal 2, aiming to enhance its competitiveness as a regional hub. The airport says about 15 carriers will operate out of the new facility, flying mostly short-haul and regional routes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference will begin in Tokyo, Japan through May 28th.  Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers opening remarks.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (May)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI  (April)/ CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Philippines Budget Balance (April)

·       Japan BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 62nd European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels. Under the Presidency of  Michael Damianos, Minister of Energy, Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Cyprus, representing the Presidency of the Council of the EU. The meeting will be attended by  Espen Barth Eide, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway  Sabine Monauni, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Environment and Culture of Liechtenstein, and  Martin Eyjólfsson, Permanent Secretary of State of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Iceland, as well as by representatives of the European Commission and the European External Action Service. The members of the EEA Council will discuss the overall functioning of the Agreement on the European Economic Area (EEA Agreement) and hold an orientation debate on ‘Ensuring competitiveness and green growth in the Internal Market.”

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers - Gymnich through May 28th in Limassol, Cyprus.

·       Members of the European Parliament’s s standing delegation for relations with China will travel to Beijing for the 43rd EU-China interparliamentary meeting with counterparts from the National People’s Congress. This is the first such gathering held in China following the lifting of Chinese sanctions against European lawmakers, political bodies, researchers and organizations.

·       UK energy regulator Ofgem announces an update to the energy price cap for the period July 1 to September 30th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)

·       France Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/Job Seekers Total (April)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Russia Industrial Production (April)

·       EARNINGS: Manchester United

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic &Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Healthcare Innovation Summit Africa will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa through May 28th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 28, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Canada through May 30th.  This is the first time a Chinese foreign minister will have visited China in 10 years.  He will meet with Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand to discuss the recently updated Canada-China Strategic Partnership.

·       US Vice President JD Vance speaks at the US Air Force Academy’s commencement ceremony in Colorado.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Canada releases the 2026 Financial Stability Report.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Reykjavík Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University in Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Brazil Bank Lending (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)

·       USA Building Permits  (April)/ Durable Goods Orders (April)/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Personal Income (April)/ Personal Spending  (April)/ Corporate Profits   Q1/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Trans (April)/ GDP Price Index  2nd Est Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/23)/ PCE Price Index (April)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/16)/  PCE Prices 2nd Est Q1/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense  (April)/ GDP Sales  2nd Est Q1/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/23)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (April)/ Real Consumer Spending  2nd Est Q1/ Real Personal Spending (April)/ New Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (May/22)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/27)

·       Canada Current Account Q1/ Average Weekly Earnings (March)/ BoC Financial Stability Report

·       Columbia Business Confidence (April)

·       EARNINGS: Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, CIBC, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, Dollar Tree, NetApp, Gap, BRP

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Humanoid Summit begins in Tokyo, Japan.  The global conference is dedicated to humanoid robots and physical artificial intelligence. The two-day event will feature live robot demonstrations and speeches by industry leaders, with participants from companies including Google DeepMind, Boston Dynamics and Toyota Motor.

·       Kazakhstan will host a Eurasian Economic Union summit in Astana.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

·       A new ferry service is scheduled to connect Taiwan's Keelung, near Taipei, with the picturesque island of Ishigaki in Japan's Okinawa. The first sailing is due to depart late Thursday and arrive around 8 a.m. the next morning. The ferry will initially operate once a week on a trial basis, before expanding to two weekly round trips.

·       Azerbaijan celebrates the founding of their democracy today.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/23)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

·       New Zealand NZ Business Confidence (May)/ Budget 2026

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q1/ Household Spending (April)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q1/ Private Capital Expenditure Q1

·       Thailand New Car Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe            

Political/Social Events –

·       The Finance Ministers of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain will issue a joint statement outlining political compromises aimed at advancing the bloc's Savings and Investments Union. Many observers see the effort as a step toward breaking the political deadlocks preventing the bloc from creating a U.S.-style financial market in a crunch meeting later this month.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the Industrial Accelerator Act: how best to leverage access to the Single Market through European preference and low-carbon requirements. The Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) is a flagship legislative proposal aimed at strengthening European industrial competitiveness with the objective that by 2035 20% of the EU’s GDP should come from the industrial sector. It includes measures such as speeding up permitting, boosting demand for low carbon or "Made in EU" products, and controlling foreign investment. It was adopted by the Commission on March 4, 2026.  They will also hold a discussion on the 28th Corporate Legal Framework.  They will then move to approve a Council conclusion on “building a sustainable and competitive tourism for the future.”  The Council will then move to discuss the impact of the crisis in the Middle East on the EU tourism sector as well as key challenges facing the European Chemical industry.

·       The second day of informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers – Gymnich takes places in Limassol, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 28th meeting of Francophone Central Bank Governors in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech followed by Q&A at a public event  entitled "Euro Digitale e Sovranità Europea" organized by Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat to discuss the “Monetary Policy from New Perspectives" organized by Bank of Japan and Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies in Tokyo, Japan.  Later, he gives a pre-recorded video address to the External Statistics Conference jointly organized by Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, ECB and National Bank of Poland in Krakow, Poland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a public lecture as part of the Selten Salon organized by ECONtribute in Cologne, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden participates in a fireside chat at the 58th International Capital Market Association annual general meeting and conference in London.

·       The European Central Bank account of the last monetary policy meeting is published.

·       UK Car Production (April)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Selling Price Expectations (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

·       France PPI (April)

·       Spain Retail Sales (April)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Ethiopia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, May 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on South Sudan sanctions, followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee (regarding North Korea).

·       G7 Digital Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. hosts "security track" discussions between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, D.C. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Chamber of Commerce Southern New Jersey.

·       Brazil Government Budget Value (April)/ Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Net Payrolls (April)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1/ GDP (March)/ GDP (April)/ GDP Implicit Price  Q1/ Budget Balance (March)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (April)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (April)/Chicago PMI (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/29)

·       Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

·       Columbia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Cement Production (April)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shangri-La Dialogue beings in Singapore. Asia's largest annual defense conference will feature U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, while top military generals and admirals and security analysts are expected to discuss global geopolitical tensions and Asia's maritime security. An AUKUS defense ministers meeting involving Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. is also planned on the sidelines of the conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ ANZ Business Confidence (May)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (May)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Australia Housing Credit (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (April)/Import/Export Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Thailand Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption (April)/ Private Investment (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 3rd Est 2025-26/ Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Bank Loan Growth (May/15)/ Deposit Growth (May/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/22)/ M3 Money Supply (May/15)

·       EARNINGS: JTB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the legislative measures linked to the 10th framework program for research and innovation 2028-2034, also known as the Horizon Europe package. Horizon Europe is the EU’s key funding program for research and innovation. On 16 July 2025, the European Commission put forward its proposal for the 10th framework program, with a €175 billion budget, as part of the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF).  The will also move to adopt a Council recommendation for an EU framework for science diplomacy.

·       The Nato Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session begins in Lithuania.

·       The foreign ministers of Poland, Estonia and Iceland will meet in Warsaw, Poland after the Council of the Baltic Sea States meeting.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Germany Import Prices (April)/ Unemployed Persons (May)/ Unemployment Change (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       UK Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Harmonized Inflation Rate   (May)// Household Consumption (April)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply  (April)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Greece PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Ukraine Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 30, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Speech Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Malta holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine L Mann participates on a panel at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference ‘Central bank independence under attack’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 31, 2026 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia holds presidential elections.  Current polling points to a runoff between left wing candidate Ivan Cepeda and a right-wing contender. The first round will determine if establishment figure, Paloma Valencia or radical outsider, Abelardo de la Espriella, advance to the runoff. Valencia would prove more attractive to centrist swing voters. Her victory would reinforce our outlook that the opposition wins the presidency.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Orašac, Croatia

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell gives acceptance remarks at the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene: Panel at the 32nd Dubrovnic Economics Conference ‘Stablecoins and monetary policy’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds elections for its National Assembly as well as municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Tensions Spike with Drone Strike on UAE Nuclear Plant, Putin Meets Xi in Beijing, Japan’s Prime Minister Travels to South Korea, and Flash Global PMIs to Show Iran War Impact on Global Economy

May 17 - 24, 2026

Markets are still working through the details of President Trump’s visit to Beijing last week for meetings with President Xi Jinping.  While expectations for any big breakthroughs on trade or Iran were low going into the meeting, there was hope for other large deals, such as major new agricultural deals and airplane purchases.  It often takes a few weeks following summits like this for deals to be finalized as sticky details are still being worked out.  

President Trump did tell reporters that China will purchase 200+ Boeing aircraft. However, President Trump has predicted China would purchase 750 planes, Boeing was hoping for 500, and in the end, it appears only 200 are being purchased.   However, China has not commented on the matter.  And no new major US agricultural purchases were agreed to during the summit, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. 

But just as President Trump was leaving, it was confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will arrive in Beijing on May 20th for bilateral meetings with President Xi.  The meeting is framed around the 25th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation signed by the two countries in 2001. 

Putin is also likely to seek progress on long-delayed projects such as Mongolia. Russia remains heavily dependent on Chinese markets and financial channels after years of Western sanctions.

But according to a Russian presidential spokesman, Putin and Xi will "exchange views" on Xi's meeting with Trump, and Moscow hopes to obtain that information "first-hand."  But US officials we have spoken with say the broader subtext is that Beijing is visibly balancing between Washington and Moscow — hosting both leaders in quick succession, signaling China's intent to remain indispensable to both sides, particularly as Ukraine negotiations and the US-Iran conflict create competing pressures on the global order.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will travel to South Korea this week for meetings with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.  The visit is part of an effort to strengthen previously tense relations between the two nations while also building mutual security and economic ties in the face of growing Chinese maritime aggression.  This is likely to include signing an agreement to share weapons, ammunition, and jet fuel during “times of emergency.”   

The two leaders will almost surely discuss growing concerns about the situation in Iran and the serious disruption it is causing to oil and gas imports, as well as helium imports, a critical component in the construction of semiconductors.  

Meanwhile, the Iranian situation has become significantly more complicated and worrisome this weekend when three drones – presumably Iranian – reportedly hit the perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Plant in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The plant is the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world and supplies approximately 25 percent of the USA’s electricity needs.  The highly provocative act ratchets up even further tensions and frustrations with Iran and will almost force President Trump and the UAE to respond militarily – especially as President Trump has already called the ceasefire “on life support”. 

Here in the Western Hemisphere, the EU-Mexico Summit will take place in Mexico City. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will sign two landmark agreements: The Modernized Global Agreement (MGA) – a comprehensive political/economic partnership agreement, and the Interim Trade Agreement (ITA), which has been given preliminary approval by all 27 EU member states earlier this month.  The ITA is expected to improve bilateral trade by 35% over the next five years, with a heavy focus on pharmaceuticals, automotive production, agri-food, and advanced manufacturing. 

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, this is Kevin Warsh’s first week as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.  The Fed will release the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, and they are expected to show growing concern about inflationary pressures, mostly due to the Iran War.  And watch for signs of growing Fed sentiment to raise rates later this year. 

 In terms of major economic reports this week, in the US, new residential construction data and pending home sales are out on Tuesday.  On Thursday, initial jobless claims are released, and on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment is released.  The whole week will be busy with corporate earnings, including Nvidia, Target, Lowe’s, Intuit, Walmart, Deere & Co, and Target.

 In Europe this week, the UK reports labor market figures on Tuesday and April inflation data on Wednesday.  We will also see flash PMIs for the UK, Germany, and France on Thursday.  And Germany releases the Ifo Survey on Friday. 

 In Asia, Japan releases several major data reports, including Q1 GDP on Tuesday and April CPI on Friday.   China releases industrial production, retail sales, and residential and commercial real estate property prices on Tuesday. And South Korea is set to release the April PPI on Wednesday. 

 Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Global

·       The UN World Urban Forum begins in Baku, Azerbaijan and runs through May 22nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington, D.C., the National Jubilee of Prayer gathering of Christians on the National Mall will take place.  This is a part of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

·       Cuba holds municipal primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The extended Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will expire at midnight.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cabo Verde holds legislative elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 18, 2026

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Paris, France through May 19th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Victory Day in Canada, a national holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Kenneth Howery and special envoy to Greenland Jeff Landry will travel to Nuuk, Greenland, through May 20 to participate in the Future Greenland Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks at the Dell Technologies World Annual Convention in Las Vegas, Nevada.

·       Interim Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Cheryl Venable gives welcome remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking".

·       Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (May)/IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Current Account Q1/GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       USA NY Fed Services Activity Index (May)/NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine senate convenes for the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The trial centers on charges including bribery, corruption and a high-profile threat against the president's life. Convicting the vice president requires at least a two-thirds majority.

·       The Australian Energy Producers Conference is held in Adelaide through May 21st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (April)/Services NZ PSI (April)

·       Singapore     Balance of Trade (April)/Non-Oil Exports (April

·       China House Price Index (April)/Industrial Production (April)/Retail Sales (April)/Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

·       EARNINGS: Baidu, Nidec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discussion he Council will discuss the future of the EU’s external action taking into consideration shifting geopolitical and geoeconomic contexts. Discussions will focus on how development cooperation can promote sustainable development in partner countries while advancing the EU’s strategic interests, as well as explore ways to strengthen the EU’s global role as a reliable partner. Ministers will also exchange views on the role of the Global Gateway strategy in the EU’s external action. The strategy mobilizes public and private resources to support sustainable investments in key sectors worldwide.

·       The UK’s Labour lawmakers will gather for the first time in the wake of the May 7 local electoral losses and Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation.

·       The European Parliament Plenary is held in Strasbourg through May 21st.  Key files on the agenda: a new law to improve the protection of EU strategic sectors from risky foreign investments, a debate/resolution on rule of law, fundamental rights and misuse of EU funds in Slovakia, new legislation on protection of victims of crimes, the gender care gap, and legislation to mitigate global steel overcapacity on the EU market. President Metsola will also confer the inaugural European Order of Merit during a ceremony in the hemicycle, marking the 75th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration. Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan is scheduled to address plenary ahead of Armenia's 7 June elections. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Paulo Cipollone participate in theG7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at the 3rd Sustainability Standards Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at a conference "Research and Market Perspectives on the Evolving Bank Supervisory and Regulatory Landscape" organized by European University Institute/Bank Policy Institute in San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy.

·       The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Euro Area Business Cycle Network cohost the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Martin Kocher, ECB board member and governor of the Austrian National Bank, and his Hungarian counterparty Mihaly Varga, speak in Budapest, Hungary.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene participates on a panel discussion at the Financial Times Business of Luxury Summit in London.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Committee Catherine Mann participates on a panel at the Lamfulussy Conference in Budapest, Hungary.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability Nathanael Benjamin speaks at the University of Glasglow Adam Smith Business School.

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Flash Q1

·       Italy Balance of Trade (March)

·       Romania Current Account (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (April)

·       Russia Current Account Q1

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair, Sonova 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks at the Samson International Smart Mobility Summit in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Jordon Industrial Production (March)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress party will hold primary elections to select candidates for the Senate in the country's 2027 general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Paris.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates in a policy panel at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks before a dinner at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking.”

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank First Vice President Cheryl Venable gives closing remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking."

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook (May/16)/Pending Home Sales  (April)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/15)/Fed Venable Speech

·       Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ New Housing Price Index (April)/Building Permits (March)/CPI Common (April)/CPI Median (April)/CPI Trimmed-Mean (April)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

·       Columbia Imports/Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: Home Depot, Toll Brothers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Andong, South Korea, through May 20th. Takaichi is expected to discuss energy security cooperation amid disruptions to crude oil supplies caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, which has spilled over to the wider Middle East region. The two leaders are also expected to discuss beefing up critical mineral supply chains. The meeting is likely to take place in Andong, Lee's hometown in southeastern South Korea. This would be part of so-called shuttle diplomacy or mutually visits by Japanese and South Korean leaders to each other's country — Lee visited Takaichi's home prefecture of Nara in January, so this is the reciprocal leg. The hometown symbolism is deliberate Japan-South Korea relationship-building optics.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attends the third India-Nordic summit in Oslo and meets his Norwegian counterpart Jonas Gahr Store as well as leaders from Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden. Following two earlier summits held in Stockholm in 2018 and in Copenhagen in 2022, the visit will focus on areas including technology, renewable energy, defense and cooperation in the Arctic.  He will then travel to Rome, Italy for meetings with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Bloomberg Forum for Investment Managers in Sydney.

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/PPI Input/Output Q1

·       Japan GDP Growth Rate Q1/GDP Growth Annualized Q1/GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/GDP External Demand Q1/GDP Price Index Q1/GDP Private Consumption Q1/Capacity Utilization (March)/Industrial Production (March)/Tertiary Industry Index (March)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (May)/Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/RBA Meeting Minutes

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/M3 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Negotiators from EU member states, the European Commission and the European Parliament will hold another round of interinstitutional talks on legislation to implement the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement.

·       NATO Chiefs of Defense Military Committee, NATO’s highest military authority, meets in Brussels.

·       The Mediterranean Forum takes place in Athens, Greece through May 21st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel discussion at The International Research Forum on Monetary Policy 2026 organized by the Euro Area Business Cycle Network, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Board in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote address at the AFME’s European Financial Integration Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·        AFME’s European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt. Speakers include ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives speech at the City Week Conference entitled “The Future of Money in the Digital World: A Central Banker’s Perspective” in London.

·       Belarus GDP (April)

·       UK Unemployment Rate (March)/Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (March)/Employment Change (March)/Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (March)/Claimant Count Change (April)/HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/Labor Productivity Q1

·       Spain Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: Shell, Euronext, DCC, Diploma

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Auto Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Paris, France.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Protection of Civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

·       Political/Social Events –

·       Primary elections are held in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on “Consumer Financial Health Metrics” at the Financial Health Network’s (FHN) EMERGE Financial Health 2026 Conference, Atlanta, Georgia.

·       Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes released.

·       Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speaks on economic outlook at the Atlanta Fed’s 2026 Financial Markets Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/MBA Mortgage Applications (May/15)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/15)/MBA Purchase Index (May/15)/EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (May/15)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       EARNINGS: Nvidia, Analog Devices, Intuit, Lowe’s, Target

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  The talks are likely to focus on energy cooperation, sanctions-resistant payment systems, and broader coordination within multilateral groupings such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The visit is also expected to renew the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship signed in 2001. The timing is deliberately choreographed against Trump's just-concluded Beijing trip, positioning Xi as the central diplomatic broker. 

·       Taiwanese President William Lai will give a speech marking the anniversary of his inauguration that could spur Chinese military drills.

·       The Sohn Hong Kong Investment Leaders Conference begins in Hong Kong.  Recognized as one of the most sought-after gatherings in the region, the Sohn Hong Kong Conference brings together Asia's brightest investment minds, offering attendees unparalleled insights into markets and investment strategies. 

·       The DealStreetAsia Asia PE Leadership Summit is being held in  Hong Kong.  This is DealStreetAsia’s first conference in Asia and focused on PE/VC capital allocation amid the China deleveraging and US-China decoupling backdrop. 

·       Today is Independence Day in East Timor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/19)

·       Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia     Interest Rate Decision/Deposit Facility Rate (May)/Lending Facility Rate (May)/Loan Growth (April)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April)/Current Account Q1

·       India Infrastructure Output (April)

·       EARNINGS: Tokio Marine, Sompo Japan Nip, MS&AD Insurance

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        Emmanuel Moulin, nominee for Bank of France governor, appears before the Senate Finance Committee in Paris, France.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will appear before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee to answer questions about the economy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey speaks at the Bloomberg Global Markets & Banking Summit in London.

·       Germany PPI (April)

·       UK Inflation Rate (April)/PPI Input/Output (April)/Retail Price Index (April)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Inflation Rate (April)/CPI (April)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (March)

·       Russia PPI (April)

·       EARNINGS: Marks & Spencer, Keller, Severn Trent, British Land,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The ICT4D Conference 2026 begins in Nairobi, Kenya and runs through May 22.

·       Today is Republic Day in Cameroon, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/Retail Sales (March)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federa; Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin speaks on the economy to the Urban Land Institute Triangle in Wilmington, North Carolina.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (March)/Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Building Permits (April)/Housing Starts (April)/Initial Jobless Claims (May/16)/Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/Continuing Jobless Claims (May/09)/Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/16)/Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/Philly Fed Employment (May)/Philly Fed New Orders (May)/Philly Fed Prices Paid (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/15)/Kansas Fed Composite Index (May)/Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/21)/30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/21)/Fed Balance Sheet (May/20)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/Economic Activity (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

·       Peru Current Account Q1

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

·       EARNINGS: Walmart, John Deere, Ross stores, Zoom, CAE

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Samsung Electronics unionists vow to go for an all-out strike in their pursuit of 15% of the company's operating profit for employee bonuses. Management is fighting back and worries that it could weaken the company's competitiveness and cause a shareholder backlash. Samsung's labor dispute sparked national debate on how to distribute profits in the semiconductor industry -- one senior government official suggested paying a dividend to the public with tax revenue from Samsung and its rival SK Hynix.

·       JPMorgan’s Global China Summit takes place in Shanghai, with CEO Jamie Dimon set to attend. Through May 22nd.

·       In Hong Kong, the annual Cheung Chau Bun Festival begins, peaking with the Piu Sik Parade on Sunday, followed by the Bun Scrambling Final next Monday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Committee Junko Koeda gives a speech to local business leaders in Fukuoka, Japan.

·       South Korea PPI (April)

·       New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/Credit Card Spending (April)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/Employment Change (April)/Full Time Employment Change (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)/Part Time Employment Change (April)/Participation Rate (April)

·       Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/Machinery Orders (March)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/16)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)

·       India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (May)/HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/HSBC Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

·       South Africa Building Permits (March)/Consumer Confidence (May)

·       EARNINGS: Lenova, Singapore Telecommunications

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Helsingborg, Sweden through May 22nd.  The agenda will center on increased defense spending, more defense production, and maintaining strong support for Ukraine.  On the sidelines, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to discuss Nordic defense issues.

·       The Transport Research Arena Conference in Budapest, Hungary.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a lecture at University of Oxford in Oxford, UK.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor speaks virtually at the MNI Connect event in London.

·       Slovakia Current Account (March)/Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

·       France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/Employment Growth (April)/Industrial Production (April)/PPI (April)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/Current Account (March)/Current Account s.a (March)/Construction Output (March)/Labor Cost Index Flash Q1/Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

·       Italy Current Account (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)/PPI (April)

·       United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)

·       EARNINGS: BT, Swiss Life, Tate & Lyle, Nationwide Building Society

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

•       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Centre for Central Banking Guest Lecture in Frankfurt, Germany.

•       Argentina Leading Indicator (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

•       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (March)/ Retail Sales  (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

•       Mexico Economic Activity (March)/Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

•       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)/ CB Leading Index (April)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (May)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)/ Michigan Current Conditions (May)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May)/22/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/22)

•       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

•       EARNINGS: Booz Allen, BJ’s Wholesale

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       APEC Trade Ministers meet in Suzhou, China through May 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

·       Japan Inflation Rate (April)/Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (April)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q1/M2 Money Supply (April)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (May/15)/ Deposit Growth (May/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/15)/ M3 Money Supply (May/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Lefkosia, Cyprus.  Leaders will discuss macroeconomic developments in the Euro area, Euro area competitiveness, and the digital Euro.

·       The 8th EU-Mexico Summit takes place in Mexico City, Mexico.  António Costa, President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will be meeting Claudia Sheinbaum, President of Mexico.  They will be discussing an EU-Mexico Trade Agreement, and a number of joint cooperative priorities including the fight against organized crime,  climate action and environmental protection, advancing energy security and the energy transition

research and innovation and people-to-people contacts and academic exchanges

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will EU trade ministers will receive an update on economic security, with a particular focus on the impact of the conflict in Middle East on trade. The ongoing hostilities in the region have generated significant trade disruptions worldwide, and ministers will address the short- and long-term consequences.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Brussels through May 23.

·       The CIS Heads of Government meeting takes place in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will speak at a the Eurogroup press conference in Cyprus.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the opening address at the 2026 Asian Monetary Policy Forum (AMPF) in Singapore.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Boris Vujcic, Peter Kazimir and Madis Muller speak at a financial literacy roundtable in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (April)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q1, Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUN/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

·       France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)

·       Poland Business Confidence (May)

·       Greece Current Account (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (April)

·       EARNINGS: Richemont

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/15), Balance of Trade (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Imports/Exports (April)/ Financial Stability Report

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (April)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Cyprus holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds National Assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Rise as Ceasefire Set to Expire, EU Leaders Meet in Cyprus, and Fed Chair-Nominee Warsh Gets His Confirmation Hearing

April 19 - 26, 2026

Markets are gripped by rapidly shifting signals from Washington and Tehran over peace talks, with President Trump projecting a deal within days. However, President Trump ended the week telling reporters on Friday he expected a deal “in a day or two” and that his special envoys, Vice President J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were heading to Islamabad, Pakistan for a second round of talks. But this all abruptly was upended when the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.  This promptly led to Iranian threats to strike back and denials they were going to send a negotiating team to Pakistan.  This is an extraordinarily fast-moving situation as the cease-fire is scheduled to end two days from now.  The next steps all depend on whether Iran sends a delegation to Islamabad or not.

Meanwhile, EU leaders meet in Cyprus this week in what could be a pivotal session amid rising geopolitical crises, especially the Iran situation.  The “informal” agenda includes discussing the Iranian situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine (Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to address the group), as well as progress of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).  The MFF is a nearly €2 trillion budget proposal that aims to, according to the EU, “align resources with shared priorities (from competitiveness and innovation to defense, cohesion and external action) under a modernized, flexible and transparent structure.”

But the Iran crisis will dominate the discussions as energy prices spike in Europe.  EU leaders are likely to push emergency energy measures.  We would also note this will be the last EU meeting for outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who lost power last week after 16 years in power.

In Washington, the main event is the Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chair-nominee Kevin Warsh. Despite likely approval, the process could be stalled by the ongoing Justice Department investigation of current Chair Jay Powell and senators planned opposition until it concludes.  As we have written in client notes, this could delay Warsh’s confirmation for months, directly impacting upcoming FOMC meetings in June and July.

Beyond Warsh’s confirmation, global markets are starting to focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting April 28–29, the European Central Bank interest rate meeting on April 29, and the Bank of England interest rate meeting on April 30. 

This week’s global flash April PMIs are highly anticipated to gauge the economic impact of the Iran War. In the U.S., March existing home sales (Monday), April PPI and Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), March retail sales (Tuesday), and the key March PCE Index (Friday) are headline releases; Canada reports March CPI on Monday.

In Europe, markets will focus on Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Wednesday), UK labor data (Tuesday), and March inflation (Wednesday), plus major German and French economic surveys released throughout the week.

In Asia, big events include Japan’s March CPI (Friday), Taiwan’s export orders (Tuesday), and South Korea’s Consumer Sentiment (Thursday).

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       White House Special Envoys Stev Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran (TBD).  On Tuesday, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to join them in the talks (Again, TBD).

·       The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – was set to expire.  Congress passed a short-term extension last week as they continue to battle out how to get a final agreement hammered out.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will make his first visits as leader to India and Vietnam through Friday. Lee, who is expected to be joined by a business delegation, will meet with his counterparts for talks, which are likely to focus on energy and supply chain cooperation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 20, 2026

Global

·       The UN’s 2026 ECOSOC Forum on Financing for Development begins New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       An Indian delegation will be in Washington for trade talks with the U.S.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein interviews Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf at the Economic Club of Washington.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations.

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Alaska Airlines, Wintrust

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines and the U.S. are set to commence their annual weekslong war games. Japan will make its debut as an active participant in the exercises, after Tokyo and Manila's reciprocal access agreement came into effect last year.

·       Mongolian President Khurelsuh Ukhnaa will visit Kazakhstan through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)/ FDI (YTD) (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       India Infrastructure Output (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to update parliament on the vetting failure of former British ambassador to Washington Lord Peter Mandelson and his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the keynote at the annual reception of Association of German Banks on the occasion of their 75th anniversary in Berlin, Germany.

·       Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen speaks at a conference in Espoo, Finland.

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Greece Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Italy Construction Output (February)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (February)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       EARNINGS: M&C Saatchi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Israel, Yom Hazikaron, or Memorial Day, a commemoration for fallen soldiers and victims of militant attacks, begins.

·       Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambican President Daniel Chapo will visit China through April 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Global

·       The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire at midnight.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

·       UN Climate Week event kicks off in the coastal city of Yeosu, running until Saturday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be next chair of the Federal Reserve.

·       The Bahamas will host the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP4) on Environmental Affairs of Latin America and the Caribbean in Nassau.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution Event, Washington, D.C.

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (March)/ Redbook (April/18)/ Business Inventories (February)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/17)

·       Colombia Imports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: United Airlines, 3M, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, Danaher, Quest Diagnostics, Halliburton, CapitalOne, Interactive Brokers, Chubb, Annaly, RTX, Northrup Grumman

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC) is expected to convene its 22nd session in late April. The Council of Chairpersons was expected to meet in mid-April to set the agenda and dates. The session is expected to review a draft revision to the Bid Invitation and Bidding Law and draft revision to the Water Law, with additional bills also possible. While largely legislative rather than headline-grabbing, this is a key mechanism through which CCP policy priorities are formalized into law.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q1/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q1/ Inflation Rate Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to unveil the fourth element of its security guarantees for Ukraine at this session, covering Defence reform, cyber and hybrid measures, demining, and arms control.  The Council will also consider unblocking a €90 billion loan for Ukraine for 2026–2027 and discuss the 20th package of sanctions against Russia.  Additional ministers will be discussing the crisis with Iran, and its impact on the broader region and Europe, the South Caucasus (including Georgia), and Sudan, with discussion expected on tightening pressure on Russia across all dimensions. 

·       There will be an informal video conference of EU Transport Ministers. They are expected to discuss the Iranian situation and its impact on the EU transport sector.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Ankara, Turkey for meetings with President Tayyip Erdoğan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, and Minister of National Defense General Yaşar Gûler.

·       The UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee has invited Sir Olly Robbins, the top Foreign Office civil servant who was sacked last week, to give evidence at its meeting today.  Robbins was the senior official who signed off on Peter Mandelson’s background check, clearing him to be named UK Ambassador to the United States – and covering up his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

·       In the UK, the RMT union is due to begin the first of two 24-hour strikes on Tube lines over four-day working week proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks followed by Q&A at an event organized by La Razón in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at the International Economics Symposium in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher gives opening remarks at a conference on Ukraine in Vienna, Austria.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge participates in a panel about decision-making psychology in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Average Earnings incl. & excl. Bonus/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       EARNINGS: Associated British Foods, British Land, Beiersdorf, Jupiter Fund Management, Thales, WR Berkley, Rio Tinto

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV continues his African tour with a visit to Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/17)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/17)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, IBM, Boeing, AT&T, Boston Scientific, Philip Morris, CME Group, SCX, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, Moody’s, Raymond James

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Criminal Court is set to release its decision on whether the case of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte falls within its jurisdiction, after his defense team filed an appeal. Duterte is currently in detention in the Netherlands on charges related to crimes against humanity for his role in masterminding a bloody campaign against the illegal drug trade in his country.

·       The TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium takes place in Santa Clara, California.  The company will provide updates on its latest technological progress and breakthroughs, with a heavy focus on artificial intelligence. Of particular interest will be the Taiwanese chip titan's comments on the state of cutting-edge chip production processes, including 3-nanometer, 2-nm, A16, A14 and beyond.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of states through April 24 in Leftkosia, Cyprus.  Leaders will first discuss the situation in Iran and how the EU can best address the war and its impact.  They will also address the challenging geopolitical environment and provide political guidance on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028–2034.  Key elements include:

• Dinner discussions on April 23 beginning with a briefing from President Zelenskyy on Russia's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. 

• Discussion of the conflict in Iran and the Middle East, including Europe's contribution to de-escalation, freedom of navigation, and the effects of high fossil fuel prices on European citizens and companies. 

• A working session on the morning of April 24 focused on the next MFF, including discussions on New Own Resources and the EU budget's contribution to the competitiveness agenda. 

• An informal working lunch with leaders from the Middle East region to discuss shared challenges and opportunities for cooperation.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum XI begins in Delphi, Greece. Speakers include president of the European Council António Costa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will take part in a panel in honor of Nick Stern" organized by London School of Economics and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London, UK.  IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also is scheduled to speak.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a conversation "Banking reform in the EU – How should the EU balance banking reform, risk and competitiveness?" organized by Bruegel in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Chief Economist Philip R. Lane will give the keynote speech at a high-level ESRB workshop on European safe assets in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later he will participate in a panel discussion at Pre-presidency Irish Financial Issues Conference organized by the Consulate General of Ireland, CFS at Goethe University, Hertie School Jacques Delors Centre and Frankfurt Chamber of Industry and Commerce in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a conversation with Nicolas Véron for Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual series and podcast "What now, Europe?".

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a panel discussion at EU finance conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is part of an FT fireside chat about private credit in London, England.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks at the launch of the Gender Balance Index 2026, organized by OMFIF.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Euro Area Government Budget to GDP 2025/ Government Debt to GDP 2025/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (April)

·       Poland Business Confidence (April)

·       Russia Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: ABB, Aberdeen, Danone, L’Oreal, Nordea Bank

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 23, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it will hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       G& Environmental Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro will meet with Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez in the Venezuelan city of Maracaibo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (March)/ PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/22)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       Warner Bros Discovery holds a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Paramount Skydance for $31 a share. If approved, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.

·       EARNINGS: Nokia, Intel, Newmont, Dow, Blackstone, American Express, Huntington Bank, American Airlines, Lockheed Martin, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Verisign, Comcast, Keurig Dr Pepper, Freeport-McMoRan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Two of India's politically crucial states -- West Bengal and Tamil Nadu -- hold elections at a time when the country is grappling with a cooking gas shortage driven by supply chain disruptions owing to the Middle East conflict, an issue that is expected to weigh on voters' minds. While Tamil Nadu in India's south is going to the polls in a single stage, West Bengal in the country's east will hold its second and final phase on April 29.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q1

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of the April 29-30 rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on central-bank independence in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Seim speaks in Umea, Sweden.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       France S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Wage Tracker Q1

·       EARNINGS: BP, Dassault Systémes, Heineken, London Stock Exchange Group, Nokia, Orang, Renault, Sainsbury’s, Sanofi, WHSmith, Nestlé

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

·       Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson speaks at the Empire Club of Canada.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/24)

·       Canada Budget Balance (February)

·       EARNINGS: Proctor & Gamble, Schlumberger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Auto China Show, one of the world's largest auto shows, begins in Beijing.  The event will spotlight China's emergence as a major EV player at a time when the Iran war has made alternatives to pricey gasoline more attractive. Thousands of exhibitors and visitors will descend on the venue for 10 days. Chinese EV makers will be looking to set themselves apart with new innovations, aiming to leave behind a bruising domestic price war and ramp up exports.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q1/ Consumer Confidence Q1

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Greece for talks Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Athens, Greece.

·       Russian Foreign Ministry holds its quarterly briefing in Moscow, Russia.

·       Today is St. George’s Day celebrations, commemorating England’s patron saint.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks at the bank’s Annual General Meeting in Bern, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Electrolux, Kuehn+Nagle, Mondi, Telia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House Correspondents Dinner will take place in Washington, D.C.  President Trump is scheduled to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day, commemorating the first major military action Australia and New Zealand took in World War I. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom Day in Portugal, commemorating the end of political dictatorship.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 26, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Center for China & Globalization holds the 12th China Global Think Tank Innovation Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

• April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

• April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.

• April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.

• April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.

• May 3 – 6 – The Milken Institute Global Conference is held in Beverly Hills, California.

• May 10 – Lebanon is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

• May 31 – Colombia holds presidential elections.

The Global Week Ahead

Moving Back to War in Iran, The World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings Begin, Israel and Lebanon To Hold Direct Talks, Implications of Hungary’s Election Earthquake, Canadian PM Carney Could Get a Parliamentary Majority, and Countless Central Bank Speeches This Week

April 12 - 19, 2026

It will be another tense week globally following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations this past Friday. While the ceasefire technically holds until April 21st, President Trump has ordered a blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and hostilities could erupt at any time. Oil prices have again spiked above $103 a barrel, and markets are bracing for new economic shocks.

The big questions we have are: 1) What happens if Chinese or Russian naval ships arrive to escort their commercial ships around the US naval ships, 2) What happens if any ships try to slip by the blockade – will the US Navy seize them or shell them?, and 3) Will the blockade trigger the Houthi’s in Yemen to engage in new attacks on the US Naval ships?

We would also note Israeli and Lebanese diplomats will be meeting in Washington on Monday on a potential ceasefire following weeks of intense Israeli attacks on Hezbollah forces.  But most observers are not hopeful for a breakthrough, as Israel will not agree unless Hezbollah is completely expelled from Lebanon.  

As the Iran War looms, the World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin today, with finance ministers and central bank governors convening for six days. The IMF will release its latest World Economic Outlook, and markets await any changes to forecasts.

On the sidelines, numerous speeches and panels will feature key central bankers like European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.  

Elsewhere, in European capitals this week, EU leaders will be analyzing the impact of Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party’s landslide win over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz Party after 16 years in power. will likely prove to help solidify and accelerate EU efforts for greater cohesion. The most obvious direct consequence is the release of sizeable EU financial and military aid to Ukraine, which had been blocked by Orbán.

Turning to North America, Canada holds elections in three legislative districts this week. Polls suggest Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is likely to secure at least two victories, potentially giving Carney a parliamentary majority and greater scope to align Canada’s policies more closely with Europe, both militarily and economically.

Aside from the World Bank and IMF meetings, markets will focus on the US PPI report on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, and industrial production on Thursday.

In Europe, the European Central Bank’s March meeting account and the UK’s February GDP numbers will be released on Tuesday.  

In Asia, the major reports of the week are China’s Q1 GDP, released on Tuesday, and the March economic data, published on Thursday.  

Finally, we would note that earnings season is kicking off this week.  We expect a chorus of concerns from major companies about the economic impact of the Iran War and its potential impact on businesses across the board.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 12, 2026

 Global

·       Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel this week to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

·       Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.  There are 35 candidates running for president, and it is almost assuredly going to lead to a run-off election.  Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit China through April 15th. resident Xi Jinping will meet with Sánchez, and Premier Li Qiang and NPC Standing Committee Chairman Zhao Leji will hold separate talks and meetings with him. This is Sánchez's fourth trip to China in four years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial resumes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 13, 2026

Global

·       The World Bank/International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings begin in Washington, D.C. and run through April 18th.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (EU). 

·       The OPEC monthly oil market report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate and House of Representatives return to work after a two-week break.  They will again try to find a deal on TSA paychecks and President Trump’s request for additional funding for the US military. 

·       The US House of Representatives potentially will consider expulsion votes or other disciplinary votes against four members this week: Representatives Sheila Chefilus-McCormick (D-FL), Cory Mills (R-FL), Tony Gonzales (R-TX), and Eric Swalwell (D-CA).

·       President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump will host King Willem-Alexander and Queen Máxima of the Netherlands at the White House and then host a state dinner for them in the evening.

·       Canada will hold three byelections that could result in a parliamentary majority for the ruling Liberal Party. 

·       Santiago, Chile hosts the Latin America Energy Summit through April 16th.  The summit brings together regional energy companies, engineering firms, infrastructure project developers, construction companies, investors, and government officials to discuss opportunities in Latin America's evolving energy industry.   The Summit takes place as Santiago also hosts the World Lithium Conference and the World Copper Conference.

·       The Semafor World Economy Conference begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through April 17.  More than 450 CEOs, US cabinet members, and foreign leaders will attend and speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States, Washington, D.C.

·       Canada Building Permits (February)

·       USA Existing Home Sales (March)/ Fed Miran Speech

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Goldman Sachs, FirstBank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 101st Trust Companies Conference.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser participates in a fireside chat at the Money Marketeers of New York University

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

·       India Inflation Rate (March)

·       China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (March)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Seoul.

·       French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot will host Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide in Paris.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C. this week.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 4th ''Wake Up, Spain" symposium organized by El Español, Invertia, and D+I (Disruptores e Innovadores) in Madrid, Spain.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at the PSE-BdF Conference on International Macroeconomics in Historical Perspective in Paris, France.

·       Hungary Construction Output (February)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (February)

·       Turkey Current Account (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV will visit Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

·       The Africa Tourism Investment Conference begins in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on Libya sanctions. Afterwards, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· The IMF publishes its World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report.

·       The International Energy Administration releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks at a Turning Point USA tour stop in Georgia.

·       Finnish President Alexander Stubb will travel to Canada for meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks at the Strengthening America's Economy through Rural Investment: A Working Forum, Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a panel before the Semafor World Economy 2026 conference in Washington, D.C.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ PPI (March)/ Redbook (April/11)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/10)

·       Brazil Business Confidence (April)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (February)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Albertsons, Johnson & Johnson, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam President To Lam travels to China on the invitation of President Xi Jinping. This marks Lam's first state visit since he took the rare step of holding two of Hanoi's most powerful posts and, a week prior, became president.

·       The Philippines' House of Representative’s Justice Committee resumes deliberations on the merits of the impeachment complaints lodged against Vice President Sara Duterte. Her team continues to question the proceedings, which began in February after a one-year Supreme Court prohibition.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (February)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       India WPI Food Index (March)/ WPI Fuel (March)/ WPI Inflation (March)/ WPI Manufacturing (March)

·       EARNINGS: Toho, J Front Retailing

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Alexus Grnikevich in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a fireside chat at the Bretton Woods Committee’s Spring Summit 2026 in Washington, DC.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane gives a lecture at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia.  Later, he participates in the Macro/International Finance Lunch Roundtable at the University.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation at the 25th Forum Confcommercio in Rome, Italy.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat with Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Board Alan Taylor at Columbia University in New York.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene takes part in a fireside chat during the IMF-World Bank week at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (March)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (March)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (March)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: BMW, Kering, Publicis

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel and Lebanon will hold direct negotiations in Washington, D.C. The Israeli delegation will be led by Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the US, although Ron Dermer, an adviser to Netanyahu, is expected to play a prominent role behind the scenes. U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa is due to lead the effort on behalf of the Trump administration.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (March)/ Inflation Expectations (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (March)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UN Peacekeeping operations.   

·       The IMF publishes its fiscal monitor.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing .

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on Consumer Compliance Supervision and Regulation at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) Just Economy Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision ice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks on bank regulation at the  Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import Prices (March)/ Export Prices (March)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/10)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

·       El Salvador PPI (March)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Progressive, PNC, M&T Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Canton Fair, one of China’s largest trade shows, opens.  There will be exhibitors touting everything from vehicles and electronics to furniture and toys. This spring's expo, which runs until early May, comes as companies in China and around the world grapple with supply chain disruptions from the Iran war.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (March)/ Export Prices (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (February)

·       India Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (February)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at The Economic Magic of Equal Opportunity for Women Conference in Washington, DC

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion entitled “Deglobalization and Fragmentation: Mid-Term Challenges for Central Banks” at the 2026 IIF Global Outlook Forum “Deciphering Risks, Defining Opportunities” in Washington,

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote address at the"20th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States" organized by The Program on International Financial Systems (PIFS) and Harvard Law School in Washington, DC.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a  speech  at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC,

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at Semafor World Economy and separately at an Atlantic Council event in Washington, DC.

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (February)

·       Romania Industrial Production (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France Inflation Rate (March)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (March)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (February)/ Residential Property Prices (February)

·       Sebia Building Permits (February)

·       EARNINGS: Hermes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Israel Business Confidence (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Global

·       G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Washington, DC.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).   

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the Washington Economic Festival: Global Macro Sessions, Washington, D.C.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote speech before the FHLBNY 2026 Member Symposium organized by the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York.

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)

·       USA Continuing Jobless Claims (April/04)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (April)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April)I/10/ Fed Miran Speech/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/16)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Netflix, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, BNY, Travelers, Citizens Financial Corp., Abbott, Alcoa, Cohen & Steers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/11)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full Time Employment Chg. (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Part Time Employment Chg. (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: TSMC, Wipro, Infosys

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers in Lefkosia, Cyprus through April 17th.

·       In the UK, the Covid-19 Inquiry report on vaccines and therapeutics will be published.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a panel at the Washington Economic Festival: Global Macro Sessions organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, DC. Later, he participates in an IMF Spring Meetings panel on "Keeping Macroeconomic Frameworks Fit for Purpose in a Shock-Prone World" in Washington, DC.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion at the New Frontiers in Banking and Capital Markets Conference in Milan, Italy

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Program on International Financial Systems and Harvard Law School, 20th Annual Symposium ‘building the financial system of the 21st century: an agenda for Europe and the United States’, Washington DC.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council members Martin Kocher and Dimitar Radev speak at an Atlantic Council event in Washington, D.C.

·       Euro Area CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Great Britain Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ GDP (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)/ SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (March)

·       Serbia Current Account (February)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/10)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (March)

·       EARNINGS: Bosch, Tesco, Icade, Viscofan, Pernod Ricard

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, April 17, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks about the economic outlook at the Auburn University Department of Economics David Kaserman Memorial Lecture, Auburn, Alabama.

·       USA Fed Balance Sheet (April/15)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/17

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

·       EARNINGS: Regions, Fifth Third Bank, Ally, Truist, Ericsson, State Street, Marsh & McLennan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Food Inflation (March)

·       Singapore Balance of Trade (March)/ Non-Oil Exports (March)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/31)/ Deposit Growth (March/31)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

·       EARNINGS:  HDFC, ICICI

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will chair the next meeting of the CIS Council of Foreign Ministers in Moscow, with Turkmenistan holding the CIS chairmanship for 2026. The ministers will exchange views on international and regional issues and discuss priority areas of CIS cooperation, including in the context of the organization's 35th anniversary. Decisions are expected on strengthening foreign policy coordination, expanding law enforcement cooperation, and granting CIS basic organization status to two Russian educational institutions.

·       Following the CIS meeting, Foreign Minister Lavrov will travel to Antalya, Turkey to participate in the Fifth Antalya Diplomatic Forum at the invitation of Turkey's Foreign Minister. The forum is a high-profile multilateral gathering with broad attendance from Global South and NATO-adjacent states — exactly the audience Russia wants to address on Ukraine, Iran, and sanctions.

·       Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez hosts Brazilian President Lula in Barcelona.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in "In conversation with Claudia Buch," organized by the Institute of International Finance in Washington, DC.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the Barclays breakfast roundtable in Washington, D.C.

·       Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (February)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (February)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Belarus GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Syria, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Global

·        The World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – expires.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany, and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out 

• Week of April 20 (To be confirmed – hearing has been rescheduled from April 9th) – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely that the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members have vowed to hold up the vote until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.

• April 23 – The European Central Bank’s non-monetary policy meeting.

• April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

• April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.

• April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.

• April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Facing Trump’s Latest Deadline, Taiwan’s Opposition Leader Travels to Beijing for Meetings, Peru and Hungary Hold Elections, and Markets Brace For The First Economic Reports Reflecting the Impact

April 5 - 12, 2026

We hope you had a peaceful Passover or Easter holiday.  The geopolitical week ahead will again be dominated by the escalating war in Iran.  On Monday morning, the latest deadline President Trump gave Iranian leaders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or, according to a profane Truth Social post, Iran will face massive bombings “and complete destruction” of all Iranian electrical power plants, bridges, and other civilian infrastructure. 

President Trump suggested in a press interview Sunday that his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are working through back channels to find a peaceful solution.  And he extended – again – the deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

As we said, the Iran situation will dominate global markets' attention, but there is an interesting event taking place this week in China.  Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party (KMT) opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, will be traveling to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese leaders.  Cheng is going at the invitation of President Xi and is considered a high-stakes gambit.  But it could also lead to further meetings between senior KMT officials and Beijing to de-escalate tensions between Taiwan and China.  She makes the trip as the KMT continue to stall legislation in parliament funding an additional $40 billion in defense spending. 

Two major elections are taking place this week, in Hungary and Peru. Hungary's parliamentary elections on Sunday are shaping up to be a difficult battle for 16-year incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Polls suggest the race is neck and neck between Orbán's Fidesz Party and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party. Orbán, a close ally of both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, asked President Trump to campaign for him this week. However, with Trump preoccupied by the Iran conflict, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to travel to Budapest to meet with Orbán.

In Peru, a record 35 candidates are running for president. The latest polls suggest conservative Keiko Fujimori — running for president for the fourth time — holds the lead, though a runoff is almost certain given the size of the field. The elections come after a prolonged period of political instability. Former President Pedro Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress in December 2022 and was subsequently impeached. His Vice President, Dina Boluarte, assumed the presidency but was removed by Congress in October 2025 for "moral incapacity." She was succeeded by the President of Congress, José Jeri, who became the country's seventh president in nine years — only to be removed in February 2026 after it emerged that he had held undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman under government investigation. Jeri was replaced by José María Balcázar, then President of Congress, who assumed the interim presidency — the eighth in nine years — to oversee the transition to these elections.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be looking at the U.S. March CPI on Friday.  That report is expected to kick off a series of reports showing the negative impact of the Iran War on the global economy.

Also on the U.S. calendar this week: the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the March ISM Services report (Monday), the February PCE (Thursday), and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Friday).

In Europe, the European Central Bank's Governing Council will convene for a retreat on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the economic outlook. Germany also releases trade and industrial production figures this week.

In Asia, China releases its March PPI and CPI reports on Friday. Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Survey on Wednesday, Consumer Confidence on Thursday, and PPI on Friday. The Bank of Korea meets on interest rates — with no change expected — and Taiwan reports CPI on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday.

·       Eight Opec+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — meet to decide on their output policy for May.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia’s Daylight Savings Ends.

·       Kyoto, Japan holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

Monday, April 6, 2026

Global

·        The G-24 meeting is being held in advance of the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to comply with his demand for them to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is today (10:05 a.m. EST).  Trump will then hold a press conference with US military leaders at 1:00 p.m.

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Easter holiday.

·       Chilean President Jose Antonio Kast visits Argentina to meet with President Javier Milei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       USA ISM Services PMI (March)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam's new National Assembly members, elected in March for five-year terms, start their first legislative session. The rubber-stamp parliament will vote on the country's top leaders, including president and prime minister, in addition to debating laws.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       AMRO is set to release its annual regional economic outlook, offering an assessment of long-term growth trends across Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and China. The reports are expected to underscore the impact of rising uncertainty in global trade and heightened geopolitical tensions.

·        Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Most European governments are closed in observance of Easter Monday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       It is Easter Monday in Europe.  Most financial markets and banks are closed as is the European Central Bank.

·       Spain Unemployment Change (March)

·       Serbia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Jordan PPI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of Burundi celebrates President Ntaryamira Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market at the University of Detroit Mercy College of Business Administration Charlton Center for Responsible Investing Speaker Series, Detroit, Michigan.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ Redbook (April/04)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (April)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations/Consumer Credit Change (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/03)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (March)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Levis, Skillsoft, XCEL Brands, Exxon Q1 preview

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Finance ministry and central bank officials from the 11 ASEAN member states will meet in Manila, the Philippines through Friday to discuss financial services integration, regulatory cooperation and capital market development.

·       Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT), makes a closely watched visit to China. She is expected to meet President Xi during her stay through Sunday, which would mark the first engagement between the sitting leaders of the Communist Party and KMT in a decade. Beijing refuses to talk with the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party administration in Taiwan, which sees Cheng's visit as part of an effort to undercut it and undermine defense cooperation with the U.S.

·       The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is set to release its annual survey of Southeast Asian attitudes on regional strategic developments and issues impacting members of the ASEAN bloc. The report, done in January and February before the Iran war, covers topics such as the South China Sea, rising protectionism and nationalism, as well as U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump.

·       SmartTech Asia, an expo focused on AI, digital payments and smart identity solutions, is held in Mumbai through April 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)

·       Japan Household Spending (February)/ Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)/ Household Spending (February)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Budget Balance (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (March)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ukrainian Parliament starts the voting process on reforms required to secure external financing. The final vote is expected on Wednesday.

·       UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow to discuss her candidacy for the UN Secretary General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council attends a retreat hosted by the Banque of France through Wednesday, April 8th.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)

·       Spain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Italy S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       France S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (February)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       GITEX AFRICA, Africa’s flagship technology and innovation summit, takes place in Marrakech and runs through April 9.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Vice President JD Vance starts a two-day visit, meeting Viktor Orbán and his officials ahead of voting in what is seen as the prime minister’s toughest election contest since 2010.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets with President Trump in Washington through April 12th.  Rutte comes after renewed threats by President Trump to withdraw from NATO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gives keynote remarks and speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce in St. George, Utah.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (March)

·       US Federal Reserve FMOC Minutes

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/03)/ Used Car Prices (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks & Gasoline Change (April/03)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Delta Airlines, Richardson Electronics, Applied Blockchain

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Touch Taiwan, one of Taiwan's biggest industry gatherings of the first half of the year, kicks off in Taipei with a focus on smart displays, advanced manufacturing, industrial materials, green technology and more. Exhibitors include Delta Electronics, Innolux, Merck and Corning.

·       The QS China Summit is held in Shenzhen, China through April 9.  The Summit is considered a premier forum for academics, industry experts, and decision-makers on the future of higher education in China. It's a niche but well-attended event drawing university and corporate leaders.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        South Korea Current Account (February)

·       Japan Current Account (February)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (March/31)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts the Council of Heads of Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation.

·       In the UK, resident doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association, begin six days of strike action after rejecting the government’s pay offer.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (February)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

·       France Current Account (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)

·       EARNINGS: Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Angola Inflation Rate (March)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).

·       International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the spring meetings curtain-raiser speech in advance of the Spring IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will give a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada’s Liberal Party’s biennial convention begins in Montreal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (March)/ Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Personal Income (February)/ Personal Spending (February)/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/04)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/08)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (February)

·       Colombia PPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Blackberry, ClearSign, WD-40 Company, Constellation Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines celebrates the Day of Valor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/04)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (February)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Fast Retailing, Seven & I, Tata Consultancy Services

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day official visit, including a meeting with Pope Leo XIV.

·       Today is Kosovo Constitution Day, a national holiday.

·       The Politico European Pulse Forum begins in Barcelona, Spain, and runs through April 10th.  Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, European Commission Executive Vice President for Competition Teresa Ribera, along with a number of other EU and Spanish government officials and CEOs will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Member Olaf Sleijpen gives a keynote speech at the DNB pension seminar in Amsterdam.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before a European Parliament economic committee in his capacity as chair of the Financial Stability Board.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (March)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

·       Spain Industrial Production (February)

·       Greece Industrial Production (February)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The WiT Africa Conference, which is focused on the Asian travel industry in Africa, kicks off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 10, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Bilderberg Meeting takes place outside of Washington, D.C., through April 12th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Court of International Trade to consider the legality of President Donald Trump’s latest round of global tariffs, in lawsuits filed by 24 states and two small businesses.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (February)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (March)/ Participation Rate (March)/ Average Hourly Wages (March)

·       USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Factory Orders (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Asia Development Bank (ADB) is set to release its annual regional economic outlook for Asia.

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

·       Japan Bank Lending (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

·       China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Sales (March)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/20)/ Deposit Growth (March/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (March)/ GDP (March)

·       Earnings: Yaskawa Electric

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at an event entitled "Economía y Territorio: Claves para un desarrollo inclusivo" organised by Cámara Oficial de Comercio, Industria y Servicios de Soria in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (February)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Sodexo

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Djibouti holds its presidential elections. incumbent president Ismaïl Omar Guelleh who won a fifth term in 2021, has been president since 1999. Originally ineligible for a sixth term due to the age limit of 75 that Guelleh imposed as part of the reforms, Djibouti passed a constitutional amendment in 2025 that lifted age limits, allowing him to run again.

·       The 9th Indian Ocean Conference begins in Mauritius and runs through April 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Global

·       The U.S. temporary license for seaborne Russian oil sales is set to expire.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Vehicle Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 12, 2026

Global

·       Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

·       Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.  There are 35 candidates running for president an almost assuredly will lead to a run-off election.  Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin holds Presidential elections. The ruling coalition and Romuald Wadagni, current minister of state for Finance and Cooperation and Talon’s designated successor, are likely to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

• April 13 – 19 – The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings are to be held in Washington, D.C., bringing together finance ministers, central bank governors, and other officials from around the world.

• Week of April 13 – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members of the committee have vowed to hold up the confirmation until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Intensifies, The EU Parliament Gets Ready to Vote on the EU-US Trade Framework, China’s Boao Forum Begins, and Global PMIs Will Show the Impact of the Iran War

March 22 - 29, 2026

The US/Israeli/Iran War looks to both continue and possibly intensify this week.  President Trump delivered an ultimatum to Iran on Saturday that expires late Monday, demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz or the US would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants.  Iran responded, saying if Trump did this, they would target all US-linked energy facilities in the region – including energy infrastructure and water desalination facilities linked to the US.

Energy markets are already struggling to handle the growing regional risk, with Brent Crude at around $112 per barrel.   United Airline CEO Scott Kirby warned on Friday he could see oil hitting $175 per barrel and stay elevated until 2027.   And Saudi Arabian energy officials also said on Friday that oil could hit $180 per barrel, creating a global recession.

Additionally, there have been numerous reports the US is considering putting “boots on the ground” in Iran to take out key nuclear sites and other strategic assets.  A detachment of 4,500 U.S. Marines is headed to the region as well as a U.S. Army infantry battalion.  The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve an additional $200 billion request of Congress for funding for the war.

Elsewhere this week, the European Parliament is expected on March 26th to vote on whether to approve the trade framework with the US.  The vote has been held up for weeks following President Trump’s recent order to launch Section 301 investigations – which will almost certainly lead to new tariffs on Europe.  The deal almost blew apart, but US and EU diplomats appear to have been able to coble it back together.  The vote, if successful, will scrap tariffs on US industrial goods.

Also, in Europe this week, Denmark holds snap parliamentary elections.  Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is seeking a third term and is seen as a tough negotiator with President Trump who held off his efforts to buy and/or invade Greenland.  Polling suggests she will win. 

Italy holds a constitutional referendum on Sunday and Monday that, if approved, will restructure the judiciary.  The vote is seen as an important test of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s power.

In Asia this week, China hosts the 25th Boao Forum in Hainan.  Oftentimes described as the Asian version of the World Economic Forum in Davos, it brings Asian government and business leaders together for three days. 

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, markets – which are shell-shocked by the impact and growing negative implications of the Iran War – are looking intensely at the global flash PMIs out on Tuesday. The inflation indicators for March are likely to be an important marker for the global economic outlook. 

In the US this week, the Consumer Confidence Index is out on Tuesday, Durable Goods on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday.

In Europe, Germany releases its Ifo Survey on Wednesday and the UK releases their inflation reports on Wednesday.  And the Eurozone flash CPI print is out on Friday.  Markets will be paying particular attention to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech on Wednesday for any suggestion of revisions to the central bank’s inflation outlook.

In Asia this week, Japan’s Shunto results are out on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.  China releases industrial profits on Friday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Bolivia holds regional elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam announces election results from its twice-a-decade National Assembly elections.  Following this, the parliament then meets to pick a prime minister and a president for a five-year term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds its second round of municipal elections.

·       The German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, home to BASF and a major auto-parts industry, holds its parliament election.

·       Slovenia holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy votes on a referendum changing the justice system which will separate the career paths of judges and splits Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.  The reform effort is one of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s primary government reform agenda items.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 23, 2026

Global

·       President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina continues to commemorate Truth & Justice Day, the conclusion of a four-day holiday.  Banks, government, and markets are closed.

·       US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor visits the Maldives and Sri Lanka. His meetings are expected to focus on “quiet strategic signaling” to the two countries to ensure US access to major ports.

·       The annual CERAWeek conference runs in Houston through March 27 to examine the future of energy, climate, technology and geopolitics

·       The Wall Street Journal CFO Council Summit is held in Palo Alto, California, through March 24th.

·       In the US, Space Science Week begins at the National Academy of Sciences Building in Washington, D.C., with industry experts discussing the future directions of space science and the commercial galactic flight industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ Construction Spending (January)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen begins a three-day visit to Australia, including a meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, with the aim of striking a trade deal.

· Eid al-Fitr is observed in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and most of the Middle East.  Markets are closed.

·       Today is Pakistan Day, a national holiday.  All banks and markets are closed.

·       The Milken Global Investors’ Symposium is held in Hong Kong with a focus on shifting capital flows, technology and regional growth shaping Asia-Pacific strategies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The second and final day of the country’s referendum on judicial system changes, a key reform agenda of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government. Voters must decide whether to separate the career paths of judges and split Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.

·       Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer answers questions about his government’s performance from MPs on Westminster’s Liaison Committee. Outside London, economics think-tank The Growth Commission hosts Mending Britain’s Broken Economy, a conference in Buckingham, where guest speakers will include former PM Liz Truss.

·       Albania celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.  Banks and government are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the House of the Euro event on APPIA Roadmap in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lanes gives a speech at the ECB=SAFE-RECEA International Conference on the Climate-Macro-Finance Interface (3CMFI) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/13)/ Central Government Debt (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Wage Tracker Q1/ Consumer Confidence Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (January)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Eid al-Fitr is observed across most of the Middle East with markets closed.

·       Iran observes Nowruz, the Persian New Year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Eid al-Fitr is observed in Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt.

·       Angola celebrates Southern Africa Liberation Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 24, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East [2334] followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to meet with oil and gas CEOs to discuss spiking energy prices.

·       Anthropic is due in court, with a US judge hearing arguments in the AI company’s dispute with the federal government.

·       In Argentina, it is the Memorial Day for Truth and Justice holiday. Financial markets closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Member Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook and community development at the National Community Investment Conference, Phoenix, Arizona.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       Chile PPI (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Economic Activity (January)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Nonfarm Productivity Q4/ Unit Labour Costs Q4/ Redbook (March/21)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Money Supply (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/20)/

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 begins in the eponymous coastal town, which is part of the city of Qionghai, Hainan. It runs until Friday. Known as Asia's answer to Davos and marking its 25th anniversary this year, participants will discuss economic cooperation at a time of serious global tension and conflict. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is expected to be among the attendees.

·       The EU-Vietnam Global Gateway Business and Investment Forum is held in Hanoi, Vietnam.

·       German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will visit Japan through March 25th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (February)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       EARNINGS: Xiaomi

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Denmark holds parliamentary elections. Social Democrats are expected to stay in power, albeit with what is forecast to be the party’s weakest results in a hundred years.

·       A delegation from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will meet EU representatives in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg Fixed Income Forum 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives concluding remarks at the 13th ECB conference on Forecasting Techniques “Artificial intelligence in the analysis of economic narratives, forecasting, and risk assessment” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia and SUERF Conference on “Central Banking Amid Persistent Global Shifts: Fostering Stability, Innovation, and Reliance” in Skopje, Macedonia.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (February)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q4

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)/ CBI Distributive Trades (March)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EAERNINGSEARNINGS: YouGov, Kingfisher, Henry Boot, Bellway

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 6th Africa Fintech Forum takes place in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)/ Consumer Confidence Q1

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins at the Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center in Grapevine, Texas. Speakers include former British prime minister Liz Truss, Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, deputy attorney-general Todd Blanche and political strategist Steve Bannon. It runs until Saturday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran takes part in a conversation at the

Digital Asset Summit 2026 in New York.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (March)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/20)/ Current Account Q4/ Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (March/20)

·       Paraguay PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: Chewy, Paychex, Beyond Meat

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Lawmakers in the Philippines House of Representatives are set to conduct hearings for evidence and witnesses related to the two impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte over her alleged misappropriation of public funds and threats against high-ranking officials. The proceedings against Duterte could eventually lead to a formal plenary vote and a Senate trial.

·       The Bangkok International Motor Show begins and runs through April 5th.  All the major auto manufacturers in Asia are expected to be represented.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia Inflation Rate (February)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (February)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (February)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (March/15)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (February)

·       EARNINGS: Anta

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday with banks and markets closed.

·       San Marino celebrates the Anniversary of the Arango, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde vies the President’s Address at The ECB and Its Watchers conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen chairs a panel entitled "Macroprudential framework review: main issues to be addressed" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a panel discussion on "Diversity of the EU banking sector: what ways forward?" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.  Later, he chairs a panel entitled “Sustainability Risks” at the seminar.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene sits on a panel at the Jefferies Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference in London.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI Input (February)/ PPI Output (February)/ Retail Price Index (February)

·       Spain PPI (February)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Tuominen Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q1/ Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Kenya International Investment Conference takes place through March 27 in Nairobi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Global

·       G7 foreign ministers meeting begins in Cerney, France, concluding tomorrow.  The focus of the meeting will be the multiple crisis’ in the Middle East and the War in Ukraine. South Korea will attend as a guest participant.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). 

·       The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins in Yaoundé, Cameroon continuing until Sunday. The conference will be chaired by Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, Cameroon’s trade minister.

·       The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report.

·       Pope Leo visits Morocco.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In New York, there will be a U.S. court hearing for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Reflections on Financial Stability” at the Professor Andrew Metrick & Yale Program on Financial Stability Presents Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Governor Lisa Cook, New Haven, Connecticut.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran discusses the Fed’s Balance Sheet at the Economic Club of Miami Event, Miami, Florida.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Energy Effects” at the Global Perspectives Speaker Series in Dallas, Texas.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barrs gives a speech on the economy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (March)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (January)

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks at Brandon Chamber of Commerce “on factors affecting Canada’s economic outlook and financial system”

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (March/21)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March/14)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/20)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing/ Composite Index (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/26)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/25)/ Fed Miran Speech/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ Fed Barr Speech

·       Colombia Business Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (January)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Newsmax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, today is Ram Navami, the Hindu festival celebrating the birth of Rama. Financial markets closed

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Kent Speech 

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/21)/ Coincident Index Final (January)/ Leading Economic Index Final (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (February)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       EARNINGS: Xtep

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte presents his 2025 annual report at the military alliance’s Brussels headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Yaoundé, Cameroon on the margins of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 14th Ministerial Conference being held through March 29.

·       The Faroe Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Eesti Pank’s Ragnar Nurkse Memorial Lecture Series followed by on-stage conversation with governor Madis Müller in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a speech on "The ECB's perspective on the SIU policy" at Savings and Investment Union (SIU) seminar in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Alan Taylor, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at Exante Data’s 10-year anniversary macro conference in New York.

·       Alan Taylor, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at Exante Data’s 10-year anniversary macro conference in New York

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence APR

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB General Council Meeting/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Loans to Companies (February)/ Loans to Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)/ ECB Machado Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       France Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Business Climate Indicator (March)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Greece Total Credit (February)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/20)

·       Great Britain BoE Taylor Speech

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Hapag-Lloyd, Bertelsmann

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (February)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, March 27, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Annual Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Fiscal Balance (February)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (January)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (March)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ Fed Daly Speech/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/27)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ Wholesale Inventories (February)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Argentina Current Account Q4

·       Panama Current Account Q4

·       EARNINGS: Carnival

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (March)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ PPI (February)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)/ Current Account Final Q4

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)

·       Singapore Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Malaysia PPI (February)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (February)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/15)/ Deposit Growth (March/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/20)

·       EARNINGS: BYD

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets via video conference. EU ministers will be discussing the situation in the Middle East and its likely outcome on the EU economy, including energy markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion "Cyber and digital operation resilience" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.  Later, ECB Board Member Patrick Montagner participates on a panel discussion entitled “Private Assets and NBFI: Opportunities and Challenges.”

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a guest lecture at the Department of Economics at University of Zurich in Zurich, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will visit the Philippines through March 29th.  Hegseth is meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro to reiterate that the 1951 US- Philippines Defense Treaty is "ironclad." Crucially, he is expected to confirm that it covers armed attacks on Philippine Coast Guard vessels anywhere in the South China Sea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Together Alliance “Together against the far-right” national demonstration in London with speakers including Green Party leader Zack Polanski, former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and actors Christopher Eccleston, Mark Rylance, Maxine Peake and Toby Jones.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion at workshop on “The banking system and today’s geopolitical challenges” organized by Fondazione Banco di Napoli in Napoli, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Dubai, the running of the 30th Dubai World Cup, billed as one of the world’s richest horse races, is scheduled to take place (but may be cancelled due to the ongoing war with Iran).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The 58th Conference of African Ministers of Finance (ECA) meets in Tangier, Morocco. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 29, 2026

Global

·       Today in the Christian world is Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto arrives in Japan for a three-day state visit, during which he will meet Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and be the main guest at a court lunch with Emperor Naruhito.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

European Daylight Savings Time and British Summer Time begins. Set your clock one hour forward!

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Madagascar commemorates Martyrs’ Day, a public holiday.

·       The Central African Republic celebrates Barthelemy Boganda Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Drags On and Expands, Trump to Meet with Japanese Prime Minister, EU Leaders Gather to Talk Energy, Trade, and War, and A Big Week Ahead of Central Banks

March 15 - 22, 2026

The Iran War is expected to continue this week and likely expand.  Markets will continue to struggle to understand the scope and breadth of the impact on oil and other commodity markets, and for any signs of an “off-ramp” to the fighting.

Iran announced on Sunday they would expand their targeting after the US bombed Kaurq Island, accusing the UAE of allowing the attacks to come from US bases in the UAE.   As a result, Iran said it would begin targeting three Emirati ports, this being the first direct stated threat by Tehran against any of their neighboring countries. Up until now, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, but has claimed they are only targeting US military and diplomatic targets in the respective countries.

President Trump is now appealing to allied countries to send naval ships to help open up the Strait of Hormuz.  He stated on Friday that “many countries” will be sending warships to the Strait, but as of this writing, no country appears to be willing to do so, arguing it would be too risky.  More worrisome, Trump threatened NATO over the weekend, saying it would be “very bad” for the organization if it failed to send ships to help him reopen the Straits.

One country President Trump will be directly appealing to is Japan, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi makes her first visit to Washington on Thursday.  The two leaders have a long agenda of issues they intend to discuss, including wrapping up a US-Japan free trade agreement, access to critical minerals, and Trump’s request for naval assistance in the Strait of Hormuz.  Takaichi is likely to put off the request.  Senior Japanese officials said Saturday they “regard the threshold as extremely high” for sending naval ships to the region under existing Japanese laws (Japan does not have a formal army or navy but instead a defense agency).  Japan is highly dependent on oil from the Middle East and has announced it will release 80 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve.

Also, this week, EU heads of state will gather in Brussels for a European Council meeting.  The agenda will be dominated by the War in Ukraine and the Iran War.  But leaders will also discuss how to improve EU competitiveness and ensure greater energy independence amid spiking fuel prices.  As leaders meet, the EU Parliament’s International Trade Committee will meet to vote on the EU-US trade deal.  They had postponed doing so weeks ago after the Trump Administration launched new global tariffs following the US Supreme Court striking down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a means to impose worldwide tariffs.

Finally, we would note that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in Paris this weekend, meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to hammer out an agenda for President Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing on March 31st.  We believe there is a strong chance the meeting will be cancelled as Trump is demanding China send naval ships to the Straits of Hormuz.  We will be watching this closely.   

Beyond that, and if the summit indeed happens, we understand the major sticking points to finalizing an agenda are President Trump’s desire to negotiate directly with President Xi in person, while Xi wants a framework hammered out in advance of the meeting.    We would also note that, so far, no US CEOs have been asked to accompany Trump on the trip – something that normally happens at bilateral leaders’ meetings, as it gives CEOs on both sides an opportunity to announce new deals and investment plans.

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screens, it is going to be a very big week for central banks.  The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England are all meeting this week on interest rates. Also meeting this week are the central banks of Australia, Brazil, China, Canada, Indonesia, Sweden, and Switzerland.

Looking at key economic data releases this week, the US markets are awaiting the February industrial production figures on Monday.  Europe is awaiting Germany’s ZEW Survey on Tuesday and the UK labor market data on Thursday.   In Asia, China releases its economic activity indicators (retail sales and industrial output) on Monday.

And in earnings news, US firms FedEx, Micron, and Dollar General are reporting this week.  And in China, powerhouse companies Tencent and Alibaba report.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris, France, to discuss President Trump’s upcoming trip to China in April.

·       The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam will host the inaugural China-Vietnam 3+3 Summit through March 17.

·       Vietnam holds parliamentary elections.

·       North Korea holds parliamentary elections.

·       Kazakhstan holds a constitutional referendum on whether to approve a new constitution.  The new constitution includes restructuring Parliament, redefining the balance of powers between state institutions, and expanding constitutional guarantees of human, digital, and environmental rights .

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus celebrates Constitution Day.

·       France holds regional elections including the first round of mayoral elections.

·       The UK celebrates Mothering Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (February)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of the Congo holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 16, 2026

Global

·       The Global Fraud Summit will be held at the Vienna International Centre in Viena, Austria. The Summit will be co-organized by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and INTERPOL.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The first round of preparatory discussions for the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement begins. 

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits the U.K. to meet with Keir Starmer.

·       Nvidia GTC, a four-day AI conference, including a keynote speech from the chipmaker’s founder and CEO Jensen Huang, begins in San Jose, California.

·       Mexico celebrates Benito Juarez Day, a national holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Common (February)/ CPI Median (February)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (February)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March)/ Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

·       EARNINGS: Marshalls, SAIC, Telos, Semtech, Dollar Tree

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (February)/ Services NZ PSI (February)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (February)

·       China House Price Index (February)/ Industrial Production (January-February)/ Retail Sales (January-February)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (January-February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ FDI (YTD) (February)

·       India WPI Food Index (February)/ WPI Fuel (February)/ WPI Inflation (February)/ WPI Manufacturing (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       EARNINGS: Foxconn

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Energy Ministers will meet in Brussels as the Energy Council, taking stock of the progress made on the action plan for affordable energy, which was presented by the European Commission a year ago to lower energy costs.

·       Separately, the Foreign Affairs Council will meet to discuss Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will unveil new steps the government intends to take to solidify UK energy needs in the wake of the Iran War.

·       Finish President Alexander Stubb travels to London for bilateral meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

·       The 7th meeting of the EU-UK Parliamentary Assembly meets in Brussels through Tuesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, today is the annual review of the “shopping basket” of goods and services used to measure consumer price inflation indices. Also, the S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index and Rightmove’s March House Price Index.

·       Turkey Budget Balance (February)/ Auto Production (February)/ Auto Sales (February)

·       Serbia Building Permits (January)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (February)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: Standard Life

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q4

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Global

·       Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

·       The International Energy Agency and the OECD cohost a Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump hosts President Donald Trump hosts Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin at the White House.

·       The Senate Homeland Security Committee holds confirmation hearings for Markway Mullin to be the new Secretary of Homeland Security.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (March)/ Redbook (March/14)/ Pending Home Sales (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/13)  

·       EARNINGS: Prudential, Boku

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (February)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/17)

·       Singapore Balance of Trade (February)/ Non-Oil Exports (February)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (March)/ Lending Facility Rate (March)/ Loan Growth (February)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (January)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Services PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Scottish parliament debates and votes on the assisted dying for terminally ill adults (Scotland) bill, which is similar to that under consideration for England and Wales. The Isle of Man and Jersey have already passed their own versions of assisted dying laws.

·       UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers the annual Mais Lecture at Bayes Business School in London. Reeves is expected to use it to pitch her vision for closer ties with the EU, central to a new growth strategy for the UK. 

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss preparations for the European Council meetings later this week.

·       The European Parliament lead negotiators will decide whether to restart work on the EU-U.S. trade framework ratification process.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Brussels to discuss the CO2 emission standards for cars and vans.

·       The 26th Accession Conference with Montenegro takes place in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ ZEW Current Conditions (March)

·       Romania Current Account (January)

·       Great Britain BoE Evans Speech

·       Serbia Current Account (January)

·       Belarus GDP (February)

·       EARNINGS: Travis Perkins, Ashtead Technology

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q4

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Global

·       The International Maritime Organization convenes an extraordinary session on the situation in the Middle East in London.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve concludes two days of meetings on interest rates/Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference/USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/13)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/13)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/13)/ PPI (February)/ Factory Orders (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (January)

·       Chile Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       The Bank of Canada meets on Interest Rates and BoC Head Tiff Macklen holds a press conference/Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (January)/

·       The Central Bank of Brazil meets on Interest rates/Brazil Business Confidence (March)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (January)

·       Argentina Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Micron Technology, General Mills

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, large corporations will begin announcing pay-raise plans for the fiscal year starting in April. Also, Japanese Trade Union Confederation will publish the first tabulation of spring wage-talk results, offering markets an early indication of whether wage growth will sustain the momentum of the past three years.

·       The Japan National Tourism Organization will release data on the number of foreign visitors to Japan in February. While inbound tourism had been recovering since the COVID-19 pandemic, visitors in January declined year on year for the first time in four years amid warnings from the Chinese government to its citizens not to travel to Japan in response to remarks on Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Current Account Q4/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Tencent

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Netherlands holds municipal elections.

·       The Tripartite Social Summit takes place in Brussels.  The purpose of the meeting to have a forum for dialogue between the EU institutions at the presidential level and with European social partners at top management levels.  The agenda includes closing investment gaps and reducing strategic dependencies in the EU.

·       The EU Space Agency Council meets in Brussels through March 19th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the Handelsblatt annual Banking Supervision Conference "Regulierung vereinfachen. Stabilität sichern. Wettbewerbsfähigkeit stärken." in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Euro Area CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary

·       Russia PPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 19, 2026 

Global

·       Today is the end of Ramadan (Eid al-Fitr).  Financial markets are closed across most of the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will make her first visit to the U.S. as prime minister, holding a summit with Trump. The two leaders are expected to talk about various topics including the Middle East situation as well as economic and security cooperation.  President Trump is expected to pressure Takaichi to send warships to the Middle East to support the US/Israeli war on Iran.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board holds an Open Board Meeting.  The agenda item is to vote on meet to vote on proposed new capital rules for small and large banks, including a re-proposal of the Basel endgame capital plan.

·       USA Building Permits (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (March)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (March)/ Philly Fed Employment (March)/ Philly Fed New Orders (March)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (March)/ New Home Sales (January)/ Wholesale Inventories (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/19)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/18)/ CB Leading Index (January)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Leading Indicator (February)

·       Chile Imports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Accenture, FedEx, Darden

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s parliament votes on a candidate for prime minister, a key step for government formation after the February 8th election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of China meets on interest rates.

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates/Japan Machinery Orders (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/14)/ Reuters Tankan Index (March)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Australia Employment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)/ Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (January)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Alibaba, CK Hutchison

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council begins a two-day Euro Summit in Brussels.  Leaders of the EU nations will meet to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the EU competitiveness agenda.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosts a bilateral meeting with Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in London.

·       The Airlines4Europe Aviation Summit begins in Brussels. Europe’s leading airline executives, including Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary and Lufthansa’s Carsten Spohr, are expected to join the two-day meeting, which will discuss European competitiveness and reactions to the Middle East conflict.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (February)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       The Bank of England meets on interest rates/Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Claimant Count Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (February)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (February)/ Employment Growth (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ PPI (February)

·       The European Central Bank meets on Interest Rates and ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference/Euro Area Construction Output (January)/ Labour Cost Index Q4/ Wage Growth Q4

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Lloyds of London, Enel

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (January)

·       Ghana PPI (February)

Friday, March 20, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington DC, the National Cherry Blossom Festival begins and runs until April 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Today is “Quadruple Witching” in US markets, with stock-index futures and options, as well as single-stock options and futures, all expiring.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q4/ Private Spending Q4

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ PPI (February)/ Raw Materials Prices (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/20)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Argentina Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates the Spring Equinox, a national holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Credit Card Spending (February)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 5Y & 1Y (March)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (February)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q4/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/06)/ Deposit Growth (March/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/13)/ Infrastructure Output (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council concludes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks on the German economy in Goslar, Germany.

·       Germany PPI (February)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (February)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Construction Output (January)

·       Poland Business Confidence (March)

·       Slovenia PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ M2 Money Supply (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (January)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: Smiths Group, JD Wetherspoon

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Global

·       Today is World Downs Syndrome Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Twitter (now known as X) was launched 20 years ago.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives brief acceptance remarks at the American Society for Public Administration (ASPA) Annual Conference: Paul A. Volcker Public Integrity Award Ceremony (virtual).

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Budapest, Hungary.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual speech at a workshop on the transformation of the international monetary and financial system organized by Suomen Pankki in Saariselkä, Finland.

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovenia Parliamentary Elections

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Namibia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Bolivia holds regional elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam announces election results from its twice-a-decade National Assembly elections.  Following this, the parliament then meets to pick a prime minister and a president for a five-year term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds its second round of municipal elections.

·       Slovenia holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy votes on a referendum changing the justice system which will separate the career paths of judges and splits Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.  The reform effort is one of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s primary government reform agenda items.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Expands, G7 Ministers Meet To Discuss Releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserves, US and China Hold Trade Talks in Paris,  and Markets Grapple with Spiking Oil Prices

March 8 - 15, 2026

The conflict in Iran will continue to dominate the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape in the week ahead.  Oil prices spiked over $100 a barrel over the weekend, surpassing $110 before settling back around the $100-mark early Monday.  The Strait of Hormuz has become gridlocked with oil carriers.

Markets are looking for the “off-ramp” of hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran but none seem to be materializing as the US/Israeli forces grind away at Iranian military targets and infrastructure (including Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities over the weekend).  Iranian missile and drone attacks continue (hitting 14 countries) but have decreased, according to US military sources, by roughly 90% in the last four days.  Yet, Iranian leaders remain defiant, choosing as their new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in airstrikes last week. The new Supreme Leader is seen as hardline – perhaps even more so – than his late father.  It is believed his wife and son were killed along with his father. He has vowed to fight on.

With intensifying concern over the spike in oil prices and massive likely economic impact – especially for the European Union and most major Indo-Asian nations (except for China, which has built up an estimated 2-billion-barrel oil reserve), G-7 finance ministers are meeting today (Monday) to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. 

Elsewhere this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to arrive in Paris to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss the agenda for President Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing (March 31 – April 2) to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  While tariffs are sure to be the primary discussion point between Trump and Xi, it has been noted that so far no US CEO delegation has been arranged – something US corporates are hoping for to secure deals.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, while investors will continued to be laser-focused on the Iran conflict, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now going into their quiet-period before their respective rate-setting meetings (the Fed meets on March 17 & 18 and the ECB meets March 19) – meaning, there will be likely little to no commentary from the two central banks on the potential economic impact of the Iran situation.  

In terms of major economic data releases this week, the US will release February CPI on Wednesday and January PCE on Friday.  Also out this week will be the January durable goods orders and the University of Michigan’s March consumer survey on Friday.

In Europe, the UK GDP is out on Friday, and Germany’s industrial production, January factory orders, and trade balance are out on Tuesday.  In the Indo-Pacific, Japan’s February Economy Watchers Survey and China will release February’s inflation report (reflecting the Lunar New Year holidays) on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 8, 2026

 Global

·       Daylight Saving Time begins in the United States with clocks going forward one hour in each state except Hawaii and Arizona, which do not observe daylight saving time.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia holds legislative elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress winds down.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Commonwealth Foreign Ministers Meeting will be held in London.

·       Switzerland holds a nationwide referendum. Voters will be asked on whether to cap the annual license fee for the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation at 200 francs while exempting other companies from the levy, whether to introduce individual taxation requiring married couples to file separate tax returns, whether to create a federal climate fund, and whether to protect cash in the constitution by guaranteeing that coins and banknotes remain in circulation.

·       Germany will hold state elections in Baden-Wurttemberg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 9, 2026

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are expected to meet virtually to discuss the US/Israel War with Iran and the possible coordinated release of strategic oil reserves.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva gives the keynote speech at the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Future of Global Economy among Fluid International Economic and Monetary Order Symposium” in Tokyo, Japan.

·       The UN Security Council will meet on the situation in Afghanistan.

·       Today is the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that will put an EchoStar 25 broadcast communications satellite into geostationary orbit is scheduled to launch from Cape Canaveral in Florida at 11.14 pm local time.

·       The US Senate is in session this week.  The US House of Representatives are out of session this week and will be holding their annual legislative retreat at President Trump’s Doral resort in Doral, Florida.  President Trump will speak to the Caucus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (February)/ Auto Exports (February)/ Auto Production (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Hewlett Packard, Korn Ferry

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Economic ministers will gather in Manila, the Philippines.  The region is struggling to assess and plan  accordingly from the Iran conflict and will focus heavily on the war.  They will also discuss policy proposals to generate growth in ASEAN. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Overtime Pay (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Bank Lending (February)/ Coincident Index (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (February)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

·       China Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)/ Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss energy prices and impact on the Euro area economy, the digital finance workstream, macroeconomic development in the Euro area, an assessment of the Belgian draft budgetary plan for 2026 and prepare for the upcoming Euro Summit on March 19 & 20.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss investing in children, Human Capital, quality jobs and AI, and how to break the poverty cycle.

·       In Portugal, José Seguro is sworn in as president.

·       NATO will hold “Cold Response 2026,” a military exercise being held in arctic Norway, running through March 19.

·       The 2nd Nuclear Energy Summit will begin in Paris, France.

·       Commonwealth Day service at Westminster Abbey marking the annual celebration of the Commonwealth of Nations. King Charles and Queen Camilla, and the Prince and Princess of Wales, are expected to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Frank Elderson gives remarks at the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) annual plenary meeting hosted by the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria, South Africa.

·       Germany Factory Orders (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (January)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Hungary Budget Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Israel Business Confidence (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos at the White House to discuss bilateral trade and regional security issues.

·       US Presidential Envoy’s Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the Iran situation.

·       Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy gives his annual pre-budget speech at the Empire Club of Canada.

·       The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission holds its 38th annual Regulatory Information Conference through March 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (February)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (March/07)/ Existing Home Sales (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/06)

·       El Salvador PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: Domino’s Pizza, Oracle, NioNTech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visits New York until Wednesday. He will participate in a series of high-level engagements, including an address before a special session of the United Nations' General Assembly.

·       South Korea and the U.S. will hold their annual Freedom Shield military drills, which involve large-scale live defensive training exercises, until March 19. In previous years, regional tensions have sometimes spiked during the exercises, as North Korea condemns them as rehearsal for an invasion, and past military maneuvers have sparked clashes in border areas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (March)/ NAB Business Confidence (February)/ Building Permits (January)/ Private House Approvals (January)

·       Japan Household Spending (January)/ Average Cash Earnings (January)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Machine Tool Orders (February)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January-February)/ Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (January)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: Jardine Matheson

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss savings and investment union, economic governance, and recovery and resilience in the financial sector.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       ECB Governing Council members Gediminas Simkus and Madis Muller join a roundtable discussion on “Baltic Economic Resilience” at Lietuvos Banks in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (February)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (February)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (February)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (January)

·       Italy PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (February)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: Volkswagen, Hugo Boss, Lindt

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (January)

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4

·       EARNINGS: Saudi Aramco

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Forex Trading Expo begins in Nairobi, Kenya and runs through March 11.

·       The  Africa CISO Summit in Nairobi, Kenya begins and runs through March 11.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (February)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Global

·       The International Energy Administration’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

·       OPEC releases its monthly report.

·       Today is the 150th anniversary of Alexander Graham Bell speaking for the first time on the telephone. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Chile's new president, Jose Antonio Kast, will be sworn into office.

·       The Inter-American Development Bank Group Annual meeting takes place in Asuncion.

·       The US Infrastructure Summit takes place in Washington, D.C.  Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and a number of members of Congress will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/06)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI (February)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (February)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (January)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Hill & Smith

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan PPI (February)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (December)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (January)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February/28)

·       China Vehicle Sales (February)/ National People’s Congress

·       Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Cathy Pacific

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers in Brussels through March 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a  fireside chat at the 32nd Encuentro del Sector Financiero organized by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a guest lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Centre for Central Banking in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks in a House of Lords Financial Services Regulation Committee hearing on stablecoins.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (February)

·       Romania Retail Sales (January)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (January)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (January)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Corporate Profits (December)

·       EARNINGS: Rheinmetall, Legal & General, Kloeckner & Co, London Gatwick Airport

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Basel III and Bank Capital Rules at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (February)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Building Permits (January)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)/ Wholesale Sales (January)

·       USA Housing Starts (January)/ Building Permits (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/07)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/06)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/12)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/11)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (February)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Adobe, Computacenter, Dollar General

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q4

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q1/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/07)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (January)

·       India Inflation Rate (February)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (February)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period in advance of the March 18 – 19 rate-setting meeting.

·       Bank of England Governor and Financial Stability Board Chair Andrew Bailey gives opening remarks at the Financial Stability Board Payments Summit in London.

·       Bank of England Director Vickey White speaks at the Connect Global Group’s 4th Annual Treasury and Capital markets Forum in London.

·       ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks on financial stability at Bloomberg’s Future of Finance summit in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (February)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Current Account (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (March)/ Overnight Lending Rate (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/06)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Swiss Re, BMW, TP ICAP, Vivendi, RWE, Savills, Helios Towers

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius celebrates Independence Day.

·       The Nigeria Solar Forum is being held in Lagos, Nigeria.

·       The PanAfrican Tourism Board hosts a conference in Johannesburg, South Africa running through March 14.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q4/ Gold Production (January)/ Mining Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Friday, March 13, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro and interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez plan to meet in the border city of Cucuta, Colombia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Industrial Production (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Wages (February)/ Capacity Utilization Q4/ Manufacturing Sales (January)

·       USA Personal Income (January)/ Personal Spending (January)/ PCE Price Index (January)/ JOLTs Job Openings (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions (March)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/13)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (February)

·       EARNINGS: Lennar

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (February)/ Visitor Arrivals (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q4

·       India Bank Loan Growth (February/28)/ Deposit Growth (February/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/06)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (February)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in North Norway.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Romania Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Great Britain GDP (January)/ Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Construction Output (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

·       Hungary Construction Output (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (January)

·       Greece Construction Output Q4

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. National Energy Dominance Council, a body created by U.S. President Donald Trump to boost American energy production, will co-host the two-day Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum in Tokyo. Nearly a dozen Indo-Pacific countries are expected to attend the event, which will include a behind-closed-doors ministerial meeting.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (February)/ M2 Money Supply (February)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (February)/ Total Social Financing (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris, France to discuss President Trump’s upcoming trip to China in April.

·       The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam holds parliamentary elections.

·       North Korea holds parliamentary elections.

·       Kazakhstan holds a constitutional referendum on whether to approve a new constitution.  The new constitution includes restructuring Parliament, redefining the balance of powers between state institutions, and expanding constitutional guarantees of human, digital, and environmental rights .

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus celebrates Constitution Day.

·       France holds regional elections including the first round of mayoral elections.

·       The UK celebrates Mothering Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (February)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of the Congo holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariff Blow-Up, U.S.-Iran Tensions Spike, German Germany’s Merz Visits Beijing, Mexico Military Moves on Cartels, and Markets Await Nvidia’s Earnings and Central Bank Speeches

February 22 - March 1, 2026

This is going to be one very busy week geopolitically and geoeconomically. Perhaps truly historic when all is said and done, as tensions in Iran, Mexico, and global markets are all at a new peak.

First, at the time of this writing, the Mexican Army, in an unprecedented action, has moved against the country's largest and most dangerous drug cartel, Jalisco New Generation (CJNG), killing its leader, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes – otherwise known as “El Mencho “– on the outskirts of Puerto Vallarta. 

This has resulted in a large-scale ongoing battle between heavily armed CJNG gunmen and the Mexican Army in and around the city of Puerto Vallarta, including a reported attack by gunmen on the international airport, leading to the airport's closure.  Aside from the massive significance of the Mexican government's decision to go after the biggest and most dangerous cartel, perhaps the most interesting news coming out of the take-down of El Mencho is that a U.S. military task force is openly assisting the Mexican Army.  

Our view is this is all part of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum'sefforts not just to contain an increasingly political threat from cartels but also to show President Trump Mexico is truly committed to not only crack down on illegal immigration but dalso on rug trafficking – the two issues which drove President Trump to slap tariffs on Mexico last year and imperil the renewal of the USMCA trade agreement.  We are likely to see other large-scale attacks on other drug kingpins, which are likely to expand the violence elsewhere in Mexico.

Meanwhile, following President Trump's loss at the Supreme Court over the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs, the President announced a new set of tariffs to replace what was deemed illegal.   But the reality is, Trump's tariff efforts have suffered a major blow, and anything he does now will have a limited time span, as written into law – Trump intends to use Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, set at a 15% rate, as the main new tariff.  But under that law, it can only be held in place for 150 days.  He then intends to use Section 301 under U.S trade law after Section 122 expires. But in both instances, new lawsuits are expected to be brought by businesses, especially since the US Justice Department, in defense of the President's use of IEEPA, argued that using Section 122 would not be legal.

The bottom line is that tariffs are not going away. Still, President Trump has a limited time to use them in the remainder of his presidency, and Republicans in Congress are increasingly getting uneasy about their use and even now opposing Trump, as we saw in a vote in the House of Representatives two weeks ago. And two new polls suggest that 64% of Americans oppose the President's handling of tariffs on imported goods. 

We will hear more from the President on Tuesday night when he gives the annual State of the Union Address before Congress.

As all this happens, tensions in the Persian Gulf have ramped up considerably in the last week as President Trump has now given Iran “15 days" to strike a deal with the U.S. or risk being attacked by the largest U.S. Naval force that has been amassed in the region since the first Gulf War.  Iran is saying they will be meeting with President Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, on Friday, but the White House is saying that is contingent on Iranian leaders providing a detailed proposal to the U.S. on how they intend to dismantle and limit their nuclear program and nuclear weapons project.  Trump has also indicated he could order an attack on Iran at any time.  

 In Asia this week, the big event is German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's visit to Beijing for bilateral talks with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.  Merz had strong words for China last week at the Munich Security Conference, but also put forth a conciliatory hand, saying he hopes to “find the right balance of cooperation" with China on this trip.   Germany has long seen China as a major market, especially for its automotive sector, which sold 35 million cars in China in 2025.  But those numbers have already significantly slowed down in the first two months of 2026, along with other German exports to China.

 Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are nervous enough with all the geopolitical tensions, but are also nervous ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement on Wednesday.  The report is seen as a clear indication of how demand for high-tech AI chips has been and will continue to be, as markets grow increasingly nervous about corporate AI investments.  

A host of other major corporate earnings are being reported this week in the US, Europe, and Asia. In the US, we will see the delayed January PPI release on Friday.  But first, we will be getting the Conference Board's consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the President's State of the Union on Tuesday, and numerous Federal Reserve Board and regional Fed President speeches this week.

 In Europe, the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, speaking Monday at the NABE (National Association of Business Economics) Economic Conference in Washington, D.C., is expected to come out strongly against President Trump's newset of tariffs and to offer a sense of the impact they will have on EU-US trade.

Also coming out of Europe this week, Germany releases its important Ifo Survey on Monday.  But the big day this week is Friday, when Germany, France, and Spain release their CPI prints and consumer confidence numbers.  The UK will also release its consumer confidence figures on Friday.

Finally, turning to Asia, Japan releases industrial production figures and the Tokyo CPI (February) on Friday.  Australia releases its inflation print (CPI) on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 22, 2026

Global

·       Italy will host the closing ceremony for the 2026 Winter Olympic Games at the Verona Olympic Arena.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will make a state visit to South Korea through February 24.

·       Today is Independence Day in St. Lucia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea's quinquennial Party Congress could persist through February 27.

·       Laos holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria celebrates the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, celebrating events in 2019 when the entire country rose in unison to hold nationwide protests leading to a change in the government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 23, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US officials will hold bilateral security discussions with their Mauritian counterparts on the continued use of the joint US-UK base on Diego Garcia. This three-day meeting follows an agreement finalized last year between the UK and Mauritius, which sees the UK hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

·       Today is the deadline set by Warner Bros Discovery for Paramount to make a “best and final” offer to top Netflix’s agreed $83 billion takeover bid or step aside. However Paramount’s $108 billion offer last week cleared a key US antitrust hurdle.

·       Today is Republic Day in Guyana, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the  2026 National Association for Business Economists (NABE) Annual Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Economic Activity (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)/ Factory Orders (December)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)                 

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Dominion, Domino’s Pizza, Hims & Hers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 45th U.S. – Thai "Cobra Gold" military training hosted by Thailand begins at the Thai navy base in the eastern coastal city of Chonburi. The multinational military exercises will take place through March 6, with more than 8,000 military personnel from 30 countries joining the full-scale training drill.

·       The International Criminal Court starts the confirmation of charges hearing against Duterte. The former Filipino leader, currently facing three counts of crimes against humanity, is currently being held in a detention center at The Hague in the Netherlands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q4/ Credit Card Spending (January)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (February)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union lawmakers will hold an emergency meeting Monday to reassess the bloc’s trade deal with the US following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down some of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.

·       A new Dutch cabinet will be sworn in, with Rob Jetten set to become prime minister.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East (Gaza and West Bank as well as the growing tensions between the US and Iran).

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

·       Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an acceptance speech for the 2026 Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award and remarks at NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington DC

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Alan Taylor takes part in a Deutsche Bank-hosted fireside chat in London.

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (February)/ Ifo Current Conditions (February)/ Ifo Expectations (February)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (February)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (January)

·       EARNINGS: LendLease, MONY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump gives the annual State of the Union speech before the U.S. Congress.

·       Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to present her controversial electoral reform plan to parliament.

·       The 50th Regular Meeting of the Conference of the Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) will be held in St. Kitts and Nevis through February 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech focused on technology at the2026 Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference: Shaping the Future of Finance and Payments, Boston, Massachusetts.  Also speaking at the Conference will be Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan Collins and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President & CEO Tom Barkin.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on artificial intelligence and productivity at the 2026 National Association for Business Economists (NABE) Annual Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee will speak at the 42nd Annual Economic Policy Conference of the National Association for Business Economics in Washington, D.C. 

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook.

·       Brazil Current Account (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)

·       Chile PPI (January)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (February)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (February/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (December)/ House Price Index (December)/ CB Consumer Confidence (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (February)/ Money Supply (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/20)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (December)

·       Peru Current Account Q4

·       EARNINGS: American Tower REIT, Axon Enterprise, GoDaddy, Home Depot, HP, Keurig Dr. Pepper, ScotiaBank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will reconvene, with top priorities including discussion of a special defense budget and the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal.

·       The UN-sponsored Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development 2026 will be held from February 24-27 in Bangkok, Thailand.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)/ PPI (January)

·       China FDI (YTD) (January)

·       EARNINGS: Singapore Airlines, UOB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to Beijing for meetings with President Jinping Xi.  The leaders will discuss bilateral trade and security issues.

·       Today is the 4th anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  European Affairs Ministers will discuss preparations for the upcoming European Council meeting on March 19-20 as well as the European Democracy Shield.

·       Today is Independence Day in Estonia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on the opening panel discussion at the International Outreach Programme of Alte Oper Frankfurt in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the KPMG RiskTech Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates on a panel discussion at the Nordea-ING event on "Banks and EU competitiveness: the untapped potential of the single market" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       BOE Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence on the latest Monetary Policy Report to Parliament’s Treasury Committee, joined by Chief Economist Huw Pill, and rate-setters Megan Greene and Alan Taylor.

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson discusses the economic situation in Sundsvall, Sweden.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (January)

·       France Business Confidence (February)/ Business Climate Indicator (February)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q4

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (February)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: City of London Investment Group, Standard Chartered, Telefonica, Unite

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1718 Committee (North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks in a moderated panel at the Northern Virginia Chamber.

·       Brazil Bank Lending (January)

·       President and CEO of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Alberto Musalem speaks at the Missouri Athletic Club in St. Louis, Missouri.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/20)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/20)/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/25)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (January)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (January)

·       Mexico Current Account Q4

·       Argentina Retail Sales (December)

·       Paraguay PPI (January)

·       EARNINGS: Zoom, Urban Outfitters, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Lowe’s, Agilent Technologies, Bank of Montreal, National Bank of Canada

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea, the country with the world's lowest fertility rate, is due to publish birth rate data for 2025 amid concerns about how an aging society will weigh on the economy.

·       Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the city’s 2026–27 budget.

·       The Asia Energy Security Seminar, hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to promote Japan’s energy security activities. This year’s event will focus on the role of diplomacy with a particular emphasis on oil and natural gas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Japanese government will present to the Japanese Diet two new nominees to the Central Bank of Japan’s board.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock speaks in a fireside chat at the University of Melbourne.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (February)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (January)/ CPI (January)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (January)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Index (December)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February/14)

·       EARNINGS: Baidu

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers today and tomorrow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic speaks in the EU Parliament in Brussels ahead of his appointment as ECB vice president.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the PwC Credit Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       France Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (January)

·       Spain PPI (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (February)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Russia Industrial Production (January)

·       EARNINGS: HSBC, Aston Martin Lagonda, Diageo, E.On, Fortescue, Fresenius, Heathrow, Manchester United, St. James Place, Shaftsbury Capital

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

·       The International Monetary Fund's executive board will meet to discuss the reviews of Egypt's Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility programs to potentially unlock up to $2.8 billion. 

·       Today is National Day in Kuwait, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa South African 2026 National Budget Speech

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to appear before the House Oversight Committee as part of an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, followed by the testimony of former President Bill Clinton the next day.

·       Argentina's main labor union, the General Confederation of Labor, will hold a 24-hour general strike to oppose labor reforms. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman testifies before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Canada Current Account Q4/ Average Weekly Earnings (December)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/21)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (February/14)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (February)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/26)

·       EARNINGS: Dell, Intuit, JM Smucker, Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, TD Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajimie Takata gives a speech to local leaders in Kyoto, Japan.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/21)/ BoJ Takada Speech/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (February)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q4/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q4/ Private Capital Expenditure Q4

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia PPI (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (January)

·       Taiwan Current Account Q4/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       EARNINGS: Maybank HKEX, Quantas Airways

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       A special election will be held in Gorton and Denton, suburbs of Manchester, UK.  The outcome could spell the end of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s rule in office.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research) will meet in Brussels.  The Council will discuss research and funding for coal and steel, and the Horizon Europe Package.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at the Bank of England/UK Women in Economics Network networking event in London.

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/20)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Loans to Households & Companies (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)/ Economic Sentiment (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Sentiment (February)/ Selling Price Expectations (February)/ Services Sentiment (February)

·       Italy Business Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Greece Total Credit (January)

·       Spain Business Confidence (February)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       EARNINGS: Allianz, Clariant, Man Group, Rolls-Royce, Tate & Lyle, WPP, Deutsche Telekom, Drax, London Stock Exchange, Puma

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (January)

Friday, February 27, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Dominican Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (February)/ Net Payrolls (January)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q4/ GDP Implicit Price Q4/ Budget Balance (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate JA

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (January)/ Fiscal Balance (January)

·       USA PPI (January)/ Chicago PMI (February)/ Construction Spending (November & December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/27)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Cement Production (January)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: AES

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian Air Force is set to hold a large-scale exercise at Pokhran in the northwestern state of Rajasthan using fighter, transport, and helicopter platforms. Among the assets to be demonstrated are indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft, French-made Rafale fighters, and Russian-developed Sukhoi Su-30 MKI jets. The exercise will also showcase glimpses of the IAF's role in rescue and evacuation from conflict zones.

·       Today is Peace Memorial Day in Taiwan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Construction Orders (January)

·       Australia Housing Credit (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Private Consumption (January)/ Private Investment (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Government Budget Value (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (February/06)/ Deposit Growth (February/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/20)

·       EARNINGS: New World Development, RHB  

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the Elgin Advisory and Society for Professional Economists “UK & US economics” webinar.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (February)/ Car Production (January)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

·       Germany Import Prices (January)/ Unemployed Persons (February)/ Unemployment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (February)/ Bavaria CPI (February)/ Brandenburg CPI (February)/ Hesse CPI (February)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (February)/ Saxony CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Economic Confidence Index (February)/ Participation Rate (January)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ KOF Leading Indicators (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q4/ PPI (January)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (January)/ Jobseekers Total (January)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)/ Current Account (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (December)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Greece Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (January)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (January)

·       Serbia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Swiss Re, AES, Hays, Rathbones, IAG, Melrose Industries

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (February)

·       Kenya

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Global

·       Six of our solar system’s planets — Jupiter, Uranus, Saturn, Neptune, Venus, and Mercury — will be visible in the night sky of the northern hemisphere in a “parade” after sunset.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

·       Today is the deadline for China to meet its pledge to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Global

·       The U.S. takes the rotating chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to India for meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

·       Beijing is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed from about 85 per cent to 15 per cent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The EU and India Close In On A Free Trade Deal, UK Prime Minister Travels to China and Japan, the US Congress Races to Avoid Another Shutdown, and a Big Week for Earnings and Interest Rates

January 26 - February 1, 2026

Our apologies for the late publishing of the Global Week Ahead – we are digging out from a massive snow and ice storm here in Washington, D.C.  And ee hope you had time to catch your breath after the breakneck pace of events last week in Davos. The geopolitical pace will be a bit slower, but several momentous events are happening this week.  

First, it appears the EU and India are very close to finalizing a landmark free trade deal. European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are traveling to New Delhi this week to co-chair the EU-India Summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where they are expected to sign the deal.   This is likely to be a big deal for the European automotive, aircraft, chemical, and machinery sectors amid ongoing trade tensions with the US and China.  

Also in Asia this week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be traveling to Beijing and then Tokyo for bilateral meetings.  His China trip is the first visit by a UK Prime Minister in eight years and will re-establish the UK-China Business Dialogue, offering new opportunities for UK business that have been hampered by both trade spats and security concerns.  Starmer’s trip to Japan will also likely create major new business opportunities for UK businesses.

Here in the United States, markets are very closely watching two possible big events this week: President Trump is likely to announce his nominee for chair of the Federal Reserve Board, while the US Supreme Court may hand down its decision on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade regime.  

Prediction markets heated up late last week on the idea that BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder would be the Fed nominee.  As of now, the nominee pool seems to be Reider, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and possibly Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (despite repeated denials from the White House and Bessent – our long-shot bet still is Bessent being the nominee).  

While the Supreme Court is not formally scheduled to release any decisions this week (other than those released this morning – which did not include the trade case), they may break precedent and release it before their next scheduled decision release date of February 20th.  

Also in Washington this week, Congress is once again locked in a fight over funding the federal government and faces a possible shutdown at midnight Friday.   The latest tension point was not over actual budget funding disputes but over the Trump Administration’s ongoing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in Minneapolis, which resulted in the tragic shooting of a protester this past weekend.  Senate Democrats said they will not move on the Department of Homeland Security funding bill (ICE is a bureau of Homeland Security).  With a major snowstorm shutting down Washington on Monday and likely Tuesday, too, Congress will be working on a very tight timeline to avoid a shutdown.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is a big week for central banks and corporate earnings. 

The US Federal Reserve meets this week to discuss interest rates, and market consensus is that there will be no new rate cuts.  The Reserve Bank of Canada will also meet this week, and market consensus expects it to hold off on any new cuts.  Elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere, the Central Bank of Brazil and the Central Bank of Chile will meet this week to discuss interest rates (both are expected to hold).

In the US, the major economic reports out this week include durable goods orders on Monday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence on Tuesday, and delayed PPI reports for November and December on Friday.  It is also a big week for corporate earnings in the US this week with four of the seven “Magnificent Seven” reporting (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple) plus Exxon, Boeing, UPS, RTX, American Airlines, Northrop Gruman, Kimberly-Clark, United Health Group, General Motors, and Texas Instruments.    

We will be listening closely the both VISA and Mastercard’s earning call for reactions to President Trump’s recent demand to cap credit card interest rates at 10% (which banks issuing cards seem to have largely ignored or are considering the creation of a product line -  as both Citi and Bank of America are considering offering new cards capped at 10% for a year).

In Europe this week, the European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of its interest rate decisions on February 4th and 5th.  The major economic releases include the European Central Bank’s monthly consumer expectations on Friday, Germany’s  Ifo survey on Monday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, and CPIs on Friday.  Additionally, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK will be reporting GDP this week. 

In Asia, Japan will have a busy Thursday with the release of the consumer confidence, retail sales, industrial production, and Tokyo CPI reports.  China will be releasing industrial profit figures on Tuesday.  

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Monday, January 26, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security: Reaffirming international rule of law: Pathways to reinvigorating peace, justice and multilateralism.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby will visit South Korea through January 27th.  He will then travel to Japan for consultation meetings. Colby was a major contributor to the recently released US National Defense Strategy 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Direct Investment (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)

·       EARNINGS: NUCOR, Crane

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, Leaders of the respective political parties will hold their first debate ahead of the February 8th  lower house election. The following day, official campaigning begins for the 465 seats up for grabs.

·       The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong.   Business and government leaders from across the region and the Middle East gather to discuss the global economy, network, and strike deals. Tariffs, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical friction will provide plenty of fodder over the two days.

· Today is India's Republic Day, celebrating the country's gaining independence from Great Britain in 1947.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Australia Day, celebrating the arrival of Great Britain’s First Fleet in 1788 on the continent.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (December)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The North Sea Summit will be held in Hamburg, Germany.  The Hamburg Declaration will be signed by ten European leaders pledging to build 100-gigawatt joint offshore wind projects (which roughly equals all energy produced by the UK).

·       The EU holds its 26th Accession Conference with Montenegro.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Parliament is expected to review its decision to freeze the ratification of the EU-U.S. tariff framework agreement, which was suspended following U.S. threats over Greenland.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mr. Mark Rutte, will address the European Parliament´s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and Committee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in Brussels

·       The Paris Haute Couture Fashion Week begins. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank  Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the “Outlook for 2026 in the light of multifaceted challenges worldwide” in Berlin, Germany.   Later, he discusses monetary policy before the German parliament.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher speaks at the OMFIF roundtable on monetary policy in London.

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (January)/ Ifo Current Conditions (January)/ Ifo Expectations (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (January)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Dubai will host the  Invest Africa New Year Reception: Trade, Investment, and the UAE-Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will give a speech on the economy and energy in Iowa.

·       The US is expected to formally withdraw from the Paris Climate Change Agreement.

·       Honduras’ new president, Nasry Asfura, will take office.  Asfura is closely aligned with President Trump, who endorsed his candidacy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (January)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (December)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (January/24)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November)/ House Price Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (January)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (January)/ Money Supply (December)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/23)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Boeing, UPS, RTX, American Airlines, Northrop Grumman, Kimberly-Clark, United Health Group, General Motors, Texas Instruments, PPG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (December)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (December)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events

·       The EU – India Summit takes place in New Delhi.  European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They are likely to sign a massive new bilateral trade deal. Additionally, they will discuss EU-India relations, Russia’s war on Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the security situation in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcome remarks and a commemorative speech at the annual event marking International Holocaust Remembrance Day (IHRD) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel joins panel on digital euro in Berlin, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (January)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (December)

·       France Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: LVMH

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Trump Administration’s recent actions in Venezuela.

·       The Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) hosts the International Economic Forum Latin America and the Caribbean 2026 in Panama City, Panama through January 29th.  Brazilian President Luiz Inǎcio Lula Da Silva (Lula), Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz Pereira, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Chilean President-elect José Antonio Kast, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Boboa will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee finishes two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates, Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. EST

·       The Bank of Canada holds a meeting on interest rates followed by a press conference by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem.

·       Reserve Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/23)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/23)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/23)/

·       Colombia Business Confidence (December)

·       EARNINGS: Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, ASML Holding, AT&T, GE Verona, Corning, General Dynamics, Starbucks, VF Corporation, Progressive, ADP, IBM, Waste Management

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian Air Show begins in Hyderabad.  This is India’s largest air show, and India is the world’s third-largest aviation market. The country is expanding the number of airports they have now (160) to 350 by 2047.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

·       Australia Inflation Rate (December)/ Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (December)/ CPI (December)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (December)           

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia PPI (December)

·       India Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ M3 Money Supply (January/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Frank Elderson will give an introductory statement at the appointment hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a presentation at the 4th Women’s Network Meeting of the Baden-Baden Entrepreneur Talks (BBUG) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence FEB

·       Italy Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (December)

·       Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will have closed consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) and another one on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Conservative National Convention begins in Calgary and runs through January 31st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (December)

·       Canada Balance of Trade (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings (November)/ Imports (November)/ Exports (November)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/24)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q3/ Unit Labour Costs Q3/ Factory Orders (November)/ Wholesale Inventories (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/23)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/29)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/28)

·       EARNINGS: Mastercard, Caterpillar, Nokia, Altria, Nasdaq, Royal Caribbean Group, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, Apple, SanDisk, VISA

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to travel to China, the first time a UK prime minister has traveled to China in eight years.  He will meet with President Xi Jinping to discuss a multitude of trade issues.

·       ASEAN's foreign ministers will gather in Manila,  the Philippines, to discuss regional issues, including ongoing South China Sea negotiations, the Thailand-Cambodia border crisis, and the political chaos in Myanmar.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ ANZ Business Confidence (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/24)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/24)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement/ Import Prices (December)/ Export Prices (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Australia Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4

·       Philippines Full Year GDP Growth 2026/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Brussels through January 30th.

·       The EU-Morocco Association Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollon will participate in a virtual conversation at the New Year's Forum in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a fireside chat at the House of the Euro event on simplification in Brussels, Belgium.

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period before the February 4-5 interest rate meetings.

·       Great Britain Car Production (December)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (December)/ Economic Confidence Index (January)/ Participation Rate (December)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/23)

·       Hungary PPI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (December)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies (December)/ Loans to Households (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Economic Sentiment (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)/ Industrial Sentiment (January)/ Selling Price Expectations (January)/ Services Sentiment (January)

·       Greece PPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Total Credit (December)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (November)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)/ Jobseekers Total (December)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (September, October, & November)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       EARNINGS: SAP, Sanofi, Eurofins, Remy Cointreau

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, January 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Funding for the US federal government is set to expire at midnight unless Congress comes up with an agreement to continue funding.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a speech on monetary policy, supervision, and regulation, at the  SW Graduate School of Banking at SMU Cox: 161st Assembly for Bank Directors (Virtual)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated discussion before the University of Arkansas Center for Business and Economic Research 32nd Annual Business Forecast Luncheon.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)/ Gross Debt to GDP (December)/ Nominal Budget Balance (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Net Payrolls (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Balance (December)

·       Canada GDP (November)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       USA PPI (December)/ Chicago PMI (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/30)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, SoFi, Verizon, American Express, Charter Communications

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (December)/ Jobs/applications ratio (December)/ Tokyo CPI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Housing Starts (December)/ Construction Orders (December)

·       Australia PPI Q4/ Housing Credit (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)

·       Philippines PPI (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (December)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Government Budget Value (December)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/09)/ Deposit Growth (January/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/23)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will give a keynote speech at the Forum on Saving Investments Union, organized by PSO Knowledge and Portugal Fintech in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give remarks at the Dreier-Club Abend event in Essen, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic speaks at a state conference on Croatia and OECD.

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)/ PPI (December)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Germany Import Prices (December)/ Unemployment Change (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (January)/ Bavaria CPI (January)/ Brandenburg CPI (January)/ Hesse CPI (January)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (January)/ Saxony CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Tourism Revenues Q4/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (January)/ BoE Consumer Credit (December)/ Mortgage Approvals (December)/ Mortgage Lending (December)/ M4 Money Supply (December)/ Net Lending to Individuals (December)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Current Account (November)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Poland Full Year GDP Growth 2026/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Current Account (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Budget Balance (December)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (January)

Saturday, January 31, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is technically the end of Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran’s term on the Fed Board, but he can continue to hold the seat for another year or until President Trump nominates someone to replace him.

·       Texas holds a special election to fill the seat for the 18th congressional district, which became vacant when Congressman Sylvester Turner (D) passed away in March 2025.  The district is considered a safe Democratic seat.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit Japan for talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in the first such visit by a British leader in three years. Starmer is reportedly due to travel to China with a British business delegation beforehand. Tokyo is hoping to coordinate its position on China with London.

·       Today is Nauru Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (January)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January)/ NBS General PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held virtually.

·       The UK assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents the country's annual budget for the fiscal year starting in April, with the focus likely to be on fields such as infrastructure development, green energy, and steps to boost export competitiveness amid U.S. President Donald Trump's punishing 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Union Budget 2026

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.