The Global Week Ahead

EU Leaders Discuss defense and Ukraine aid; Trump talks Gaza with Netanyahu; US Nears Government Shutdown, and Markets Await Numerous Central Bank Speeches

September 28 - October 5, 2025

It is going to be another fast and furious week for markets to absorb and analyze.  We believe the most important event of the week might be a gathering of EU leaders in Copenhagen on Wednesday to discuss common defense issues, how to better support Ukraine militarily, and possible enlargement.  But the main topic will be how they can collectively respond to the spike of Russian intrusions into Polish, Romanian, Danish, and Latvian airspace with fighter jets and drones.  The Russian actions can no longer be considered “accidental” and are clearly both a provocation and a testing of NATO response capabilities. 

In last week’s report, we noted EU leaders were starting to consider the building of a “drone wall” on the border with Russia.  The meeting in Copenhagen will likely solidify the plans.  It may even authorize the use of frozen Russian assets to fund the layered defense strategy, which would include advanced radar, anti-aircraft missiles, and drones to counter any future Russian airspace trespassing.

The meetings will take place after Sunday’s elections in Moldova, which are being closely watched for potential Russian interference.  The Moldovan government has already banned two political parties from participating in the election due to their alleged ties to the Kremlin.  Concerns are rising over potential civil unrest in the coming days, potentially instigated by Russia.  As of this writing Sunday night, the pro-EU Party is leading in the vote count.

Meanwhile, in Washington on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet at the White House with President Trump – their fourth such meeting this year at the White House – to discuss the crisis in Gaza and Israeli threats to begin annexing the West Bank – something President Trump has now voiced opposition to.   While at the United Nations last week, Trump convened a meeting of Arab leaders to discuss potential Gaza peace options, and he is likely to discuss them with Netanyahu during the meeting.  The deal contains 21 proposals and according to various reports, leaves the door open for the creation of a new Palestinian state.

Staying in Washington for a moment, markets are closely watching to see if Congress can hammer out a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown on Wednesday.  President Trump has agreed to meet with Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders on Monday to discuss a possible deal.  Otherwise, the House of Representatives, who passed a short-term Continuing Resolution to keep the government open before they left for the week last week, may not come back into session this week in an effort to force Senate Democrats into accepting their bill (Translation: you’d better vote for it or the shutdown is all your fault – and we won’t be here for another week to try again).  For Democrats, the real risk of this is the White House is threatening to fire – instead of furloughing – large numbers of federal workers if there is a shutdown, something Democrats absolutely want to avoid happening (but we would note, this is clearly an indicator of where the Trump Administration wants to go with the 2026 budget which Congress will be working on later this fall – massive shrinkage of the federal government, continuing the DOGE effort first begun by Elon Musk).

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, in the US, the major data reports being released will focus on employment, with the JOLTS report scheduled for Tuesday and the ADP report for Wednesday.   Also released this week are the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Index and ADP employment report on Wednesday, indices on Wednesday and Friday, and factory orders on Thursday.  The ISM Services Index is scheduled for release on Friday.

Turning to Asia, Japan’s industrial production figures and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions are out on Tuesday, and the Tankan survey is out on Wednesday.  On Tuesday, China releases September PMIs, and the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to discuss interest rates.

In Europe, markets are awaiting the flash CPIs for Germany, France, and Italy on Tuesday, as well as the Eurozone CPIs on Wednesday.  Also, there are a number of central bank speeches being given this week, including two policy speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (Tuesday and Friday) and one by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Friday).

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 28, 2025

 Global

·       The UN General Assembly continues through Monday, September 29th.

·       UN Sanctions against Iran “snap back” into place due to Iran’s refusal to maintain inspections of its nuclear program.

·       The 7th Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Material Sciences and Nanotechnology takes place in Brazil.

·       The 4th  Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Geospatial Technologies and its Application takes place in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.  There is significant concern about likely Russian interference in the election.  Moldovan authorities barred two pro-Russia parties from this Sunday’s election. 

·       The chair of Russia's State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, will visit Vietnam through September 29th.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

·       The UK Labor Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (specifically, the situation in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will again host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza and the West Bank.

·       Ukrainian defense officials will travel to Washington to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller will give a speech on payments a the Sibos 2025 Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in a policy panel, "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025," hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Center for Inflation Research, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks at an event, "The Past, Present and Future of the Federal Reserve".

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in a conversation organized by the Rochester Institute of Technology.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a conversation on Atlanta's economy, air travel, and leadership as part of the Atlanta Fed Leading Voices Series.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)

·       / Pending Home Sales (August)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (August)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Current Account Q2

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Carnival

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur concludes.

·       The Asian Development Bank releases its latest economic assessment report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi speaks at the Sapporo Chamber of Commerce and Industry Conference.

·       Philippines PPI (August)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Singapore Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

·       India Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The final results of the Moldovan elections are announced.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), one of the main elements of the 2028-2034 long-term EU budget (the forthcoming multiannual financial framework (MFF).  They will then hear a presentation on simplification, and exchange views on the Single Market Strategy.

· The Warsaw Security Forum will be held in Warsaw, Poland, through September 30th.  On the sidelines of the Forum, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet with his counterparts from Ukraine, France, and Poland as part of the “Weimar Triangle.”

·       The Sibos Conference begins in Frankfurt, Germany, and runs through October 2. The theme of the conference is “The Next Frontiers of Global Finance” and will feature hundreds of speakers, including leading central bankers and government officials from around the world.  

·       The Vaclav Havel Rights Award will be announced in Strasbourg, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech followed by a fireside chat at the Baltic Digital Euro Conference titled 'Payments & Policy in a Changing Environment' organized by Eesti Pank in Tallinn, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on 'Current aspects of monetary policy' with the Committee on Economic and Monetary Policy of the Association of German Banks in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic chairs panel at European Bank Coordination initiative in Brussels 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at '10 years of the SRM - a decade delivering a more resilient financial system' organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at 'Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025' conference organized by the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Euro Economic Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Approvals (August)/ Mortgage Lending (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Energy Week begins in Cape Town, South Africa, where senior government leaders and the OPEC Secretary General will gather to discuss energy policy for the continent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision 

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti. Then it will hold a briefing on MONUSCO, the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, followed by consultations..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to speak to Brazilian President Lula regarding US tariffs on Brazil.

·       The US Senate returns after a week off for home business.  It is unclear whether the House of Representatives will return, however, as Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) has suggested he may keep the body from returning to try to force Senate Democrats to vote in favor of the Continuing Resolution the House passed ten days ago to keep the government open.

·       At midnight, unless the US Congress passes a continuing resolution to fund the federal government, there will be a government shutdown.  The Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Voight, has threatened to fire large numbers of civil servants instead of simply furloughing them.

·       The Regional Dialogue of the Fourth International Symposium on Transboundary Waters in Latin America and the Caribbean will take place in Lima, Peru, through October  2nd, with participation by government authorities and the Inter-American Development Bank.

·       Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth convenes an extraordinary meeting of top military officials at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on Monetary Policy Frameworks and the US Economic Outlook at the Bank of Finland International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins makes remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations’ C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York. 

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest Agriculture Conference: Midwest Agriculture and Trade Uncertainty

·       USA Redbook (September/27)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ Chicago PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn/ Soy/ Wheat (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/26)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Current Account Q2

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Nike

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is China National Day, otherwise known as Martyrs’ Day.

·       North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will visit China through September 30th.

·       Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will meet South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in Busan, South Korea, through October. 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and press conference Australia Private Sector Credit (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)/ Housing Credit (August)/ Building Permits (August)/Cotality Dwelling Prices (September)

·       China NBS General/Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing PMI (September)/ RatingDog General & Services & Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Current Account Q2

·       Singapore Bank Lending (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       India Government Budget Value (August)/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research) will meet in Brussels. Ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on the importance of research and innovation for the EU Startup and Scaleup Strategy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 4th Bank of Finland's International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       The Bank of Finland will organize the 4th International Monetary Policy Conference on Monetary Policy in the Shadow of Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Conflicts (virtual).

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the S&P Global Ratings 2025 European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion titled 'View from the Top: Securing Europe; s financial future - Resilience, autonomy, and global impact' at Sibos in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at a high-level event, 'Climate action that works for you - An agenda for competitiveness, prosperity and resilience' in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Cardiff Business School.

·       Germany Retail Sales (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/Baden-Württemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q2/ Business Investment Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ BoE Lombardelli Speech/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE L Mann Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (August)/ PPI (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       Turkey Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

·       Italy PPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Current Account (July)

·       Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Sales (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Current Account (August)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: Tesco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which went into effect 25 years ago, expires. The Act allowed duty-free trade between a number of African nations and the US.

·       The West Africa Mining Security Conference begins in Accra, Ghana.

·       Today is Botswana Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Global

·       Russia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.  There will be a press briefing by Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month, on the Programme of Work for the month of October they intend to pursue.

·       Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish year, begins at sundown and ends at nightfall on October 2nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, large trucks, and other goods go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/26)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/26)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers sits for a fireside chat at Canada’s Competition Summit 2025 in Ottawa, Ontario.

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q2

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: ConAgra, Acuity

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day of the People’s Republic of China, celebrating Mao Zedon’g formal proclamation of the establishment of the communist state – otherwise known as Golden Week.  Observed on October 1st, another six days are added to the official holiday.

·       Today is Tuvalu Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/ RBA Chart Pack/ Commodity Prices (September)

·       Japan Tankan Large All Industry/ Manufacturers Index Q3/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September/19)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of state in Copenhagen.  EU leaders will discuss how to strengthen Europe’s defense, also in light of Russia’s recent airspace violations in several EU member states.  They will also discuss ways of further supporting Ukraine.

·       Russia officially begins its annual autumn military conscription.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with his counterparts from the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Sochi, Russia.

·       Greece is bracing for a general nationwide strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give a one-on-one interview and then participate in a panel discussion at the POLITICO Competitive Europe Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at the ECB Industry Dialogue on Climate and nature risk management: Taking stock and looking ahead in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Hungry HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

·       Euro HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, October 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated conversation before the UT Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Factory Orders (August)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/01)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada BoC Mendes Speech

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 62nd US–Japan Business Conference begins in Tokyo and runs through Saturday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/27)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ RBA Financial Stability Review/ Household Spending (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

·       Russia GDP (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 7th European Political Community begins in Copenhagen, Denmark.  More than 50 European leaders will participate as well as the EU Parliament, EU Commission, and the European Council.

·       French unions have called for nationwide strikes today in opposition to proposed parliamentary austerity proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a fireside chat at EC-EIB-ESM Capital Markets Seminar in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at ESADE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

·       Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (September)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (September)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guinea Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

Friday, October 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on the US Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework at the Drexel Economic Forum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium organized by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Government Payrolls (September)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/03)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (July)

·       Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates National Foundation Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to a group of business leaders in Osaka.

·       Australia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany celebrates the 35th anniversary of reunification.  French President Emmanuel Macron will join German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Saarbrucken to celebrate.

·       The Czech Republic holds elections for its Chamber of Deputies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot, 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities', organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party holds its leadership elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia will hold municipal elections to select mayors and members of local representative councils, the Sakrebulo.

·       Today in Germany is National Unity Day, celebrating German reunification.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Lesotho Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds it annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Global Week Ahead

Global Leaders Gather for the UN General Assembly, Canada, France, and the UK Recognize Palestinian Statehood, EU Defense Ministers Consider a “Drone Wall”, and Markets Brace for Global Flash PMIs and Lots of US Central Bank Speeches

September 21 - 28, 2025

New York will be the center of the geopolitical radar screen this coming week.  The United Nations General Assembly’s High-Level General Debate begins on Tuesday, the 80th anniversary meeting, and world leaders will descend on the Big Apple to deliver speeches.  But the truly big event at the UN this week will be the meeting on Palestinian statehood, co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia.   French President Emmanuel Macron will use the event to formally recognize a Palestinian State, following Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia in making the dramatic diplomatic policy move.  

The move by major Western nations calling for a two-state solution shows the growing divide between them and Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to oversee military action in the Gaza Strip and reportedly is considering annexing the West Bank – all as the US and other countries continue to gain the freedom of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Also happening on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly will be a meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN Assembly.  The main issue they will discuss is efforts to secure a cease-fire in Ukraine, something Russian President Vladimir Putin has been resisting despite President Trump’s increasing threats of more stringent sanctions on Russian oil sales. Markets will be watching closely for any sign of a thaw that could delay Trump’s move toward stricter sanctions.

Overall, there are innumerable other meetings and conferences taking place on the sidelines of the Assembly.  You can find the schedule of when leaders are speaking here, and for a listing of all the other meetings and conferences taking place, you can find them here.

While all this is going on, EU Defense Ministers will be meeting in Latvia to discuss the spike in Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO airspace. The Ministers will consider creating a layered defense system of drones, radar, jamming stations, and other precision weapons to prevent future Russian incursions. The meeting is another sign of the growing tensions between European NATO members and Moscow as Russian President Putin grows either more aggressive or more reckless - or both - in his provocations of NATO.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big event for markets will be the global flash PMI reports for any signs of growing inflation.  In the Americas, markets will be listening closely to Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday and watching for a number of key reports, including new home sales on Wednesday, existing home sales and durable goods orders on Thursday, and the August PCE print is out on Friday. 

However, we would also note that this is going to be a hectic week for Fed governors “speechifying” – 14 Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed presidents will be speaking in total.  And in Canada, Reserve Bank Governor Tiff Macklin will give a speech and hold a press conference this week, too.  And in Mexico, the Central Bank will meet on interest rates.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its August consumer expectation survey on Friday.  Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Wednesday, and consumer confidence surveys for Germany and France are out on Thursday.

Finally, in Asia, Japan releases September CPI figures on Friday, and China releases August inflation data on Wednesday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Belize Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

·       Today is Armenia's Independence Day.

·       Today is Malta Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Africa Business Initiative (GABI) will convene the 4th edition of Unstoppable Africa, on the sidelines of the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in Mid-Town Manhattan, New York. 

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum on whether to establish a new constitution replacing the one approved in 2020 and mark the first step towards civilian rule.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 22, 2025

Global

·       At the United Nations, the 2nd World Summit on Palestine Statehood, bringing together numerous heads of state and sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, will attempt to revive the long-stalled “two-State solution” to establish a Palestinian state and the “two-state solution.”  France is expected to join Canada, Great Britain, and other countries in recognizing a Palestinian state.

·       At the United Nations, the High-level Meeting to Commemorate the 80th Anniversary of the United Nations will take place. This one-hour meeting will mark the 80th anniversary of the establishment of the United Nations, with UN officials and Heads of State and Government reflecting on the achievements of the past eight decades and the path ahead for a more inclusive and responsive multilateral system. 

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency holds a meeting in Vienna, Austria.

·       Rosh Hashana – the Jewish New Year -  commemorations begin.

·       The Autum Equinox happens in the Northern Hemisphere (Summer is now officially over and its autumn).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House and Senate are out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louise Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives a speech on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran Non-Monetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates virtually in panel before the “Monetary Policy Frameworks: Recent Developments and Outlook An International Comparative View" event organized by the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and SUERF.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “The Fed's Role in the Economy and Impact on Everyday Life" before a "Fed Talk" event.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually on the economy before the Howard County (Maryland) Chamber of Commerce.

·       Canada PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Paraguay PPI (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party will begin a two-week leadership contest, with the vote to be held on October. 4. Though the LDP does not have a majority in the Diet, Japan's parliament, it is by far the largest party, so the new leader is most likely to become the next prime minister.

·       Malaysia will host the 57th ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting and related sessions this year in Kuala Lumpur as the bloc's chair, with the summit running through Friday alongside the RCEP Ministers' Meeting. Officials will also hold consultations with dialogue partners, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the European Union trade chief, to review market access, regional supply chains and the rules-based trading system.

·       Reforms to India's complex consumption taxes will kick in as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries to spur domestic consumption in a slowing economy. Under the reforms, most goods and services will be taxed in two tiers of 5% and 18%, with the government abolishing the 12% and 28% brackets. The reforms come just ahead of the crucial festive season between October and December, when Indians engage in the bulk of their yearly shopping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock delivers the semi-annual testimony to a parliamentary panel in Canberra.

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through September 23 in Brussels.  The EU Commission will present its proposals for the common agricultural policy (CAP) post-2027, and agriculture ministers will have the opportunity to hold a first policy debate on the future CAP.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations.  Later, she will deliver a speech at the Global Renewables Summit and then participate in at the high-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat at the London School of Economics.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at BIS-ECB-SUERF high-level online workshop on Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook – an international comparative view.

·       European Central Bank Board Member  José Luis Escrivá speaks at an event in Madrid.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mali Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN General Assembly begins in New York and runs through September 29th.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a high-level briefing on the situation of the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question.  Later, the Council is scheduled to hold a High-Level briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report for the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will address the UN General Assembly.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will host an event on Russia's abduction of children at the fringes of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

·       The Third Annual CAF / UNDP Conference on Governance for Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Critical Natural Resources for Sustainable Development will be held at the United Nations.

·       Ecuadorian unions will march in Quito over the government's elimination of a diesel subsidy. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention (virtual).

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before a Macro Musings podcast live recording.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Saskatoon, followed by a press conference.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Redbook (September/20)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/19)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Micron Technology, Costco, Autozone

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the Euro-Asia Economic Forum (under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Xi'an through September  25.

·       The Fifth Asia Finance Forum, hosted by the Asian Development Bank, begins in Manila, Philippines.

·       Jakarta and Brussels will sign the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Bali. The pact is expected to boost Indonesia's exports by over twofold, from a current trade value of around $30 billion. The deal comes after negotiations that spanned a decade, which concluded successfully in July.

·       The S-Tron Conference begins in Shanghai.  The two-day startup event allows start-up founders to pitch business plans they hope will become the next big thing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japanese financial markets are closed for the Autumn Equinox.

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat and panel discussion at the Financial Market Authority's 16th annual supervisory conference in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a discussion at the Inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Artificial Intelligence and international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/19)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/19)/Building Permits (August)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)

·       EARNINGS: KB Home, Cintas

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Payments System Board Annual

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the United Nations Climate Summit 2025.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at Bloomberg's Future of Finance conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2025 'AI in action: Shaping the future of banking and banking supervision' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene gives a speech at the Glasgow Business School on “Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy.”

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Spain PPI (August)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (September)/ Ifo Current Conditions (September)/ Ifo Expectations (September)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/ODI Conference on Global Finance begins in London, where researchers and practitioners will discuss frontier research on public finance, with a focus on low and middle-income countries.

·       BP launches an annual Energy Outlook, looking at the long-term trends and projections for global oil and gas markets to 2050.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will host Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Washington for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation on bank stress testing at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan.”

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Sales Q2/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/24)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Accenture, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Game Show will be held for four days through September 28 at the Makuhari Messe convention center east of Tokyo. First held in 1996, it is one of the world's leading game events.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

·       Taiwan Retail Sales (August)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (September)

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin

·       EU New Car Registrations (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Hungary Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       France Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Greece Total Credit (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3/ PPI (August)

Friday, September 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

·       Canada GDP (July)/ Wholesale Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       USA PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/26)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Panama Current Account Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) will be held at the United Nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The HKIB Annual Banking Conference is held in Hong Kong with Financial Secretary Paul Chan giving an opening keynote address.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/20)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q3/ Consumer Confidence Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/12)/ Deposit Growth (September/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia hosts a two-day NATO military committee conference beginning in Riga.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB-CEPR-Bocconi conference hosted by the University of Bocconi in Milan, Italy.

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Italy Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       ECB Consumer Inflation Expectation

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds national assembly elections.

·       The Seychelles holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Makes 2nd State Visit to the UK, US-China Trade Talks Start Up Again, Qatar Holds Emergency Summit Following Israeli Attack,  and Multiple Central Banks Decide Rates This Week

September 14 - 21, 2025

This week, the most significant geopolitical events with market implications will be in Europe.  President Trump will travel to London this week for his second official state visit, which will involve a white tie dinner with King Charles.  For UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is still reeling from having to fire his Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, this past week for his close ties to Jeffrey Epstein, it is a high-stakes meeting as he seeks a deal on British steel and aluminum products, which are currently subject to 25% US tariffs.

Just prior to the UK meetings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid to discuss trade and mutual security matters.  Specifically, Bessent will discuss the US threat to impose tough new sanctions on any country purchasing Russian oil.  Considering China is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, these meetings will be crucial for markets trying to gauge the future of oil prices.  Bessent is also going to press China to buy more US agricultural products, especially soybeans.  Chinese purchases of American soybeans have plummeted, putting US farmers in tough economic straits.

Also this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s plans for Gaza and the overall situation in the Middle East following Israel’s attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar.   While he is in Israel, the Qatari’s are holding an emergency meeting of Arab leaders to discuss how best to respond to Israel’s bombing strike. 

Closer to home, we will be watching as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with President Claudia Sheinbaum.  The two leaders are expected to discuss not only mutual trade issues but also how to better respond to President Trump’s ongoing tariffs on both countries.

Here in Washington DC this week, we expect Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran to be confirmed Monday (or perhaps early Tuesday) for an open seat on the Federal Reserve Board which will give him the ability to participate in this week’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FMOC) meeting on interest rates – a sure vote for lowering interest rates by at least 25 basis points with Miran likely pushing for a 50-basis point cut.

This brings us to the global economic and financial radar screen for the coming week.  It is a big week for central bank meetings on interest rates.  The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Central Bank of Norway, Taiwan’s central bank, and several other central banks are all meeting this week on interest rates.

Looking at major economic releases this week, in the US, the key reports scheduled for Wednesday include August retail sales data, industrial production, and housing starts.

In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be speaking several times.  Germany releases the ZEW survey on Tuesday and PPI data on Friday, while in the UK, August inflation data, labor market data, retail sales, and consumer confidence are reported out this week.

And in Asia, China’s August economic data is out on Monday, including industrial output and August retail sales.  Japan releases CPI data on Friday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo XIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Rubio will then go on to London to join President Trump for meetings with UK officials.

·       US and Chinese officials began a new series of talks in Madrid, Spain on trade and the US’ threat of sanctions on China for buying Russian oil.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will also discuss boosting US agricultural sales to China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia region holds local elections.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to make significant gains. 

·       Russia holds regional elections for 21 gubernatorial elections and 11 regional parliamentary elections.

·       Russia and Belarus will conduct the strategic military exercise Zapad-2025 through September 16.

·       The  International Motor Show Germany (IAA) 2025 begins in Munich, Germany.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Qatar will host an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, Qatar, though September 15 in response to Israel's Sept. 9 attack on Hamas leadership in Doha. . 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Africa dispatched trade officials to Washington, D.C., for talks with the Trump administration on tariffs. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August) 

Monday, September 15, 2025

Global

·       The OECD hosts its Global Forum on Productivity Conference in Paris, France.

·       The BRICS Traditional Values Forum begins in Brasilia, Brazil and runs through September 17

·       The BRICS 1st National Public Health Institute Conference begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through September 17.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The 69th IAEA General Conference will be held in Vienna, Austria through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina’s President Javier Milei's official visit to Paraguay.

·       Canada’s Parliament returns to work following its summer break.

·       Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran is expected to be confirmed to become a Federal Reserve Board Governor.

·       The US Navy and Marine Corps will host UNITAS 2025, a military exercise off the coast of Florida and along the east coast of the US.  26 nations will participate including Argentina, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Jamaica, Japan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Singapore, Spain, and the United States.

·       Canada Post mail carriers are expected to escalate strike activity by stopping flyers and neighborhood mail deliveries.

·       The Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS) kicks off their annual conference in Maui, Hawaii.

·       The Beyond Earth Institute hosts a webinar to discuss “Navigating the New Space Policy Landscape: What the Latest Executive Order Means for Your Business.”

·       Today is Costa Rica's Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Guatemala's Independence Day, a national holiday

·       Today is Honduras’ Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Wholesale Sales (July)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States, South Korea and Japan will hold the trilateral Freedom Edge military exercises off South Korea’s southern island of Jeju through September 19.

·       Today is Respect for the Aged Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ FDI (YTD) (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2

·       India WPI Food Index (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers through September 16 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       A delegation of eight MEPs will speak to travel to Washington, DC to meet with members of Congress lawmakers and law enforcement officials through September 18.

·       NovaSpace kicks off their annual World Space Business Week in Paris, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a ‘Conversations pour demain’ on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Institut Montaigne in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the EIB Chief economists meeting in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syrian electoral bodies select members of new transitional parliament.

·       A Turkish court is expected to rule on a case that could remove the main opposition party leader, Ozgur Oze, from office due to procedural irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump arrives in London for meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well as for a dinner with King Charles. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join Trump.  The UK is hoping to break the deadlock over long-delayed quotas to lower tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S.

·       The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) will sign a free trade agreement with the EU on Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· Mexico will celebrate its Independence Day with a military parade planned in Mexico City. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) begin two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates.

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)

·       USA Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/13)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/12)/ International Monetary Market (IMM)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Papau New Guinea, a national holiday.

·       Malaysia will celebrate Malaysia Day, marking its independence. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter leads a fireside chat at the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney.

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with his Austrian, Slovenian, and Polish counterparts on the capitals of each country.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. The Council will start preparations for the October 23-24 2025 European Council by discussing an annotated draft agenda. In public session, the Commission will present a letter of intent on legislative programming and ministers will hold an exchange of views.  As part of the Council’s annual rule of law dialogue, ministers will hold in public session a horizontal discussion on general developments related to the rule of law situation in the EU. Ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries, namely Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Ministers from the four candidate countries will take part in the discussion.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will host a conference entitled “One Year After the Draghi Report” in Brussels.  She along with Mario Draghi will deliver the opening keynote speeches.

·       The 6th Accession Conference with Albania will take place in Brussels.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 4 ‘Green agenda and sustainable connectivity’, including Chapters 14 (transport policy), 15 (energy), 21 (trans-European networks), and 27 (environment and climate change).

·       Ukraine holds Defence Tech Valley 2025 in Lviv, Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (August)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (July)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

·       Germany Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Malawi holds general elections for president and parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The World Trade Organization holds its annual Public Forum through September 18.

·       The  International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants meets in Antibes, France through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The congressionally mandated deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to non-Chinese buyers arrives again (unless President Trump gives it another extension, which he is expected to do).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces interest rate decision followed a by Press Conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/12)/ Building Permits (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/12)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Leading Indicator (August)

·       The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China hosts the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, with military personnel and scholars expected to deliberate on regional security issues and cooperation. The three-day event is set to draw delegates from more than 100 countries and comes on the heels of a recent military parade in Beijing.

·       Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his annual policy address, in which he will talk about plans to steer the city's economy. Analysts are watching for a potential stamp duty cut on residential property purchases, while another topic may be efforts to attract more visitors from mainland China to help struggling local retailers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Singapore           Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones hosts a fireside chat at the Intersekt 2025 Conference in Melbourne.

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/05)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to unveil its proposal for the 19th round of Sanctions on Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to speak about Ukraine offensive to foreign envoys at round table in Moscow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference, jointly with Stanford's Hoover Institution, on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Piero Cipollone participates in the Associazione Bancaria Italiana's Executive Committee meeting (virtual).  Later in the day, he gives the keynote speech at the  De Nederlandsche Bank's Resilience Conference in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the German economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       The Eurofi Financial Forum 2025 will take place in Copenhagen through September 19.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate (September)/ Lending Facility Rate (September)/ CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Pan- African Global Trade & Investment Conference begins in Newark, New Jersey and runs through September 20.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Olympic Committee Executive Board begins a two-day meeting in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Clauda Sheinbaum.  Trade will be the dominant issue discussed and how to deal with US tariffs.

·       Today is Chile Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Business Roundtable is expected to release its quarterly CEO economic outlook for the U.S.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/17)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Earnings: FedEx, Darden Restaurants, M&C Saatchi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (July)

·       Australia Employment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels will hold a policy debate on a proposal to amend the European climate law to establish a binding intermediate climate target for 2040.  The proposal introduces a target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. It also outlines key elements and conditions that the European Commission must reflect in its legislative proposals for the post-2030 policy framework to enable member states to achieve the 2040 target.

·       All major French unions – including air traffic controllers – will join in nationwide strikes and demonstrations against austerity measures expected in the 2026 budget. in France are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision is announced and meeting minutes released.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives a  video message at the opening plenary of 1st edition of Global Leadership by Women Summit in Marseille, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel 'Noisy Experts? Discretion in Regulation' at 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a livestreamed MNI Connect discussion entitled 'Euro Area Growth and Inflation Outlook' in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a policy panel 'The Next Financial Crisis?' at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel joins the panel on Europe and Germany in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Liz Oakes, an external member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England, gives a keynote speech at the Cross Market Operational Resilience Group 2025 conference.

§  Vicky White, director, prudential policy, at the Bank of England, gives a speech at the Bank of America annual CEO conference.

·       Euro area Current Account (July)/ Construction Output (July)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, September 19, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council discusses Nicaragua.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks at an AI event in San Francisco, California.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

·       Canada Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/19)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan policy meeting on interest rates/Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/13

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Copenhagen, Denmark.  The finance ministers will discuss the Eurogroup work program until June 2026.  They will also discuss recent economic developments including an exchange of views with the Chair of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through September 20 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate on a panel discussion at EUROFI Financial Forum in Copenhagen, Denmark.  Later in the day, Board Member Anneli Tuominen will also participate on a panel discussion.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       France Business Confidence (September)/ Business Climate Indicator (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Liberal Democrat party conference begins in the south coast seaside town of Bournemouth, ending on September 23.

·       The 190th Oktoberfest beer festival formally begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum to replace the constitution that was approved in 2020.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

France’s Government Faces a Tough No Confidence Vote, Japan’s Prime Minister Resigns, Brazil’s Former President Faces Prison, and the ECB Meets on Interest Rates

September 7 - 14, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed geopolitical week ahead for markets to keep close tabs on as there are a number of events with significant market implications. 

First, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a no confidence vote on Monday after pushing for an austerity measures to deal with France’s current fiscal deficit which is approaching 5.4%. and the overall highest deficit of any member of the Eurozone.  As things stand now, Bayrou looks like he is going to be forced from office and French President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new prime minister who can mollify the various parliamentary factions and avoid an early legislative election.  That is not going to be easy and, ultimately, it looks as if the only winner out of all this is the far-right National Rally Party.

Overnight in Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced he was stepping down after brutal legislative elections in July for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to losing its parliamentary majority.  Ishiba’s poll numbers were never very strong, but only worsened with President Trump’s tough tariffs on Japan, which Ishiba described as a “national crisis.”  Ishiba has called for the LDP to hold an emergency leadership vote to choose his successor.  No date has been set yet.

Also, this week, there will be a lot of market-impacting political action in Brazil.  Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) is convening on Monday a virtual meeting of the BRICS+ to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and how the BRICS members might form a multilateral response.   Not all of the BRICS leaders will be attending - including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others – who are instead sending aids to cover the meeting (all of which suggests Lula’s efforts are likely not to come to much in terms of an organized response).

But later in the week, the Brazilian Supreme Court will be considering whether former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and seven former aides and allies are guilty of attempting a coup in 2022 after Bolsonaro lost to Lula in elections.   Heated protests have been held around the country in support of Bolsonaro, showing how politically split the electorate is at the moment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screens, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meetings.   Market consensus believes the ECB will hold rates at 2% and is looking for more economic assurances before moving to lower rates going forward.

Also, in Europe this week, the UK releases GDP figures on Friday, Germany releases trade figures and industrial production on Monday, and France releases industrial production figures on Tuesday.

In the Americas this week, markets are looking for the August PPI report on Wednesday and the August CPI report on Thursday, probably the two most important reports out before the Federal Reserve decides on rates on September 17th.  Adding to this will be the University of Michigan consumer survey for September on Friday.  Also, this week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will unveil the 2026 budget, which will be

Turning to Asia, Japan will release its GDP on Monday and PPI on Thursday. China will be releasing trade data on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets to discuss oil output targets.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       (To Be Confirmed) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Argentina through September 10th.

·       In Brazil on Brazil's Independence Day, demonstrations will take place both in support of and in opposition to former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 8, 2025

Global

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host a virtual meeting of BRICS leaders to discuss U.S. trade policies and rally support for multilateralism.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria.  Iran’s nuclear program will be the leading issue discussed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Schoenbaum presents her administration’s draft 2026 budget; budget expected to include plans to increase tariffs on Chinese automotive, textile, and plastics imports.

·       The First Nuclear Energy Conference and Expo sponsored by American Nuclear Society and the Nuclear Energy Institute begins in Atlanta, Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July) 

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Used Car Prices (August) 

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July) 

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee is held in Beijing through September 12th.  They are expected to approve a numb er of draft laws, including a draft atomic energy law, a draft law on public health emergency response, a draft law on national parks, a draft law on the safety management of hazardous chemicals, and other pressing issues.

·       The Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting will kick off in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, bringing together leaders of the body's 18 members. During the five-day gathering, they will discuss challenges facing the region, such as climate change, transnational crime and rising geopolitical tensions between China and West. External partners including the U.S., China, Japan and Taiwan are not invited to the meeting this year.

·       The annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, organized by S&P Global, will kick off in Singapore. Hundreds of petroleum, gas, petrochemical, trading, technology and financial executives, as well as senior government officials from across the globe, are set to convene in the city-state, where issues such as the financing of future energy solutions and the impact of technological innovations and disruptions on the energy sector will be discussed.

·       The 14th Seoul Defense Dialogue (SDD) begins in Seoul.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues his state visit to Cambodia, which runs through Tuesday, as the two Southeast Asian nations look to boost relations. On the agenda are mutual concerns over transnational crime and efforts to bolster cooperation on agriculture, higher education and tourism, as well as to strengthen market access for bilateral and intra-ASEAN trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese investment firm CITIC opens a four-day forum in Hong Kong, bringing in a lineup of top global executives to discuss major issues affecting portfolios. Sessions will cover a range of topics, from cryptocurrencies and China tech to macroeconomic trends.

·       Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August) 

·       Australia Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July) 

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Motorbike Sales (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Norway holds parliamentary elections.

·       French government faces confidence vote in National Assembly.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August) 

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q2 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Second Africa Climate Summit takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Global

·        The 80th session of the U.N. General Assembly will open.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The future of peace operations - Key issues, opportunities and challenges in the context of the review of the future of all UN peace operations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Apple holds its annual media day where it is expected to launch the new iPhone 16.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/05) 

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision 

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August) 

·       EARNINGS: Oracle, Synopsys, GameStop

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Republic Day, marking the day in 1948 when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was proclaimed and Kim Il Sung was declared its premier.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2 

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August) 

·       Philippines Industrial Production (July) 

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August) 

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (August) 

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Singapore  Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Indonesia Car Sales (August) 

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will meet in London.

·       The Defense & Security Exports International (DSEI) Fair begins in London and runs through September 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August) 

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August) 

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech 

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August) 

·       France Industrial Production (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People will convene its 425th meeting in ECOSOC at UNHQ in New York. At this meeting, the Committee will receive briefings by the Permanent Observer Mission of the State of Palestine and Palestinian civil society representatives on the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/05)/ PPI (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/05)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August) 

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Chewy, Daktronics, Vince

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Semicon Taiwan 2025 opens in Taipei. The chip industry's flagship event will welcome over 1,200 companies and is expected to draw more than 100,000 visitors.

·       The 2025 Financial Review Asia Summit takes place in Sydney, Australia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July) 

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August) 

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June) 

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July) 

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July) 

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the 2025 State of the Union address in Brussels.  Later in the day, she receives European Tech and Industry CEOs for a working dinner.

·       Widespread protests are expected across France over the current budget proposal being considered by parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       The Governing Council of the European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings in Frankfurt.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Clauda Buch gives a keynote speech at the BIS Innovation Summit 2025.

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Spain Industrial Production (July) 

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July) 

·       Italy Industrial Production (July) 

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Greece Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ireland Industrial Production (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech 

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference begins in Bangui, Central African Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August) 

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1591 Committee (Sudan and whether to renew sanctions), in the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil report.

· The OECD annual report on fiscal reforms is published in Paris.

·       The OPEC Monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to convict and jail former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup to stay in power in 2022.

·       Nadine Menendez, wife of former U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, is due to be sentenced in a Manhattan district court after being convicted of helping her husband in a scheme to bribe Egyptian officials.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (September) 

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July) 

·       USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/06)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/10) 

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Adobe, Kroger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/06)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/06)/ BoJ JGB Purchases 

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September) 

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July) 

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog travels to London for meetings with UK ministers to discuss the situation in the West Bank and Gaza.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Copenhagen from September 12.

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s wife, Begona Gomez, along with one of her aides, will testify in court as part of an influence-peddling investigation.

·       Russia, Belarus hold joint military drills called 'Zapad-2025' through September 16.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       European Central Bank Monetary Policy meeting and press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion entitled "Lead, Innovate, Achieve: Championing Sustainability and Social Inclusion for 25 Years" organized by Business in the Community Ireland (BITCI) in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July) 

·       Turkey Retail Sales (July)/ Auto Production & Sales (August) 

·       ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference 

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision 

·       Germany Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Ministerial Meeting takes place in Sochi, Russia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July) 

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)   

Friday, September 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York Fashion Week (Spring-Summer) begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there this year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Canada Building Permits (July)/ Capacity Utilization Q2 

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/12) 

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (August) 

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech 

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2 

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July) 

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       India Inflation Rate (August)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/29)/ Deposit Growth (August/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August) 

·       Germany Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       France Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Turkey Current Account (July) 

·       Romania Current Account (July) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (July) 

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo VIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August) 

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts the SCO Summit and Celebrates the 80th Anniversary of the End of World War II with World Leaders, Trump’s Tariff Deals in Doubt, and Markets Focus on the Fed’s Beige Book and US Jobs Report

Summer is officially over and world capitals in the Northern Hemisphere are roaring back to work this week.  But the major geopolitical events of the week will be in China. 

President Xi Jinping is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit being held in Tianjin, China.  This will be a particularly important SCO gathering as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other leading Asian leaders will be in attendance and holding sideline meetings with Xi.  Of note, Prime Minister Modi’s sideline meeting with Xi shows continuing warming between the two nations – which has been historically frosty – as both struggle to deal with President Trump’s tough tariff regime. 

After the SCO, Xi will hold an extravaganza 80th anniversary celebration in Beijing marking the end of World War II for China.  Putin, Modi, and at least 28 other national leaders will be in attendance including North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.  The significance of his attendance is it suggests new warming in the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang which has been strained in recent years.

What both events clearly show is a growing alignment between nations that are outright hostile to the United States and the West with those nations hardest hit by the Trump tariffs, giving the combined nations a reason to work together. Seeing the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, India, Iran, Cuba, and other nations sitting together watching an enormous Chinese military parade will drive that point home.  What comes out of these meetings will likely be quite impactful on global markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Here in the US, two issues will be of major focus to markets this week.  First, the decision by a Federal Appeals Court on Friday ruled that President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is illegal.  These were put in place on “Liberation Day” on April 2nd.  The decision upholds an earlier ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and is now likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court.  But in the meantime, it puts into doubt the legality of Trump’s trade deals with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea.  Moreover, it the US Supreme Court upholds this decision, it will mean the Trump Administration will have to repay the billions of tariffs collected since April, estimated at roughly $142 billion.

The second event is the ongoing battle over whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook.  A federal judge on Friday held an emergency hearing on the matter but did not issue a ruling.  Our view is that this battle will go all the way to the Supreme Court and will likely not hold Cook back from voting at the upcoming Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on interest rates later this month.

Turning to look at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, and starting with the US, there will be a number of important reports out this week. The big events will be the Federal Reserve’s release of the Beige Book on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  Also, this week, the ISM indices will be out, giving more clarity on the manufacturing and services sectors, and the JOLTS print on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday.

In Asia, Japan releases Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations for Q2, which is expected to show as much as 3% growth year over year.   In China, the August PMIs are out on Sunday, and manufacturing data is out on Monday, while services data is out on Wednesday.

In Europe, we will see the Eurozone CPI report on Tuesday as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il are expected  to attend.  Putin will afterwards travel to Beijing for meetings with Xi.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Polish Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw and the visit the border between Poland and Belarus. She will then travel to Bulgaria to meet with Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov and visit a defense factor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Oman will implement a "golden visa" for investors and wealthy residents..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 1, 2025

Global

·        Egypt will host a G20 meeting on food security in Cairo.

·       South Korea assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Guyana holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Centre-left President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C) is likely to be re-elected. However, opposition parties will likely secure a majority in the National Assembly (legislature).

·       Today is Labor Day in the United State and Canada. It is a national holiday in both countries.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Mexican judges elected in the country's first judicial election in June will take office.

·       The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission continues its annual meeting in Panama City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Fiscal Balance (July)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs through September 2 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       The EU Parliament returns to work from summer holiday.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Lithuania to meet with President Gitana Nauseda and then visit the Lithuania and Belarus border.  She will then travel to Romania and meet with President Nicusor Dan and Prime Minister Illie Bolojan and visit the military port of Constana.

·       The British Parliament returns to work from their summer holiday.

·       Moldova begins negotiations with the EU about joining.

·       Today is Slovakia Constitution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a dinner speech at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a panel on 'Autonomy through the internal market and the capital markets union' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will chair a panel on 'Resilience, autonomy and cooperation in payments and clearing systems' at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference titled 'Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation' in Frankfurt Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)/ BoE Consumer Credit (July)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary PPI (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Mexico and Ecuador for bilateral meetings through September 4.

·       The US Congress returns to work from its August recess.

·       Brazil's Supreme Court hear legal arguments regarding attempted coup charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA Redbook (August)/30/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will meet with and give remarks to local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Japan.

·       New Zealand Export Prices Q2/ Import Prices Q2/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/02)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (August)

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Thailand Business Confidence (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (August)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will chair a panel on 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel entitled 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Flash (August)/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Italy PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lebanese Armed Forces will present a plan for Hezbollah's disarmament to Lebanon's Cabinet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations General Assembly will meet on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will host Polish President Karol Nawrocki at the White House.

·       Jamaica holds House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem gives speech at the Peterson Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Minnesota Women's Economic Roundtable.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/29)/JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/29)/EARNINGS: Salesforce, HPE, Gitlab, Dollar Tree

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2

·       Colombia Exports (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will hold a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, with 26 foreign leaders in attendance.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (August)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/22)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union's new floating price cap on Russian oil, set at 15% below the six-month average market price, will take effect.

·       The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok Russia through September 6.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcoming remarks at the 9th ESRB Conference "Broadening horizons: ESRB’s next decade of impact" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England and Warwick Business School Innovation In Money and Payments Conference.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Great Britain BoE L Mann Speech / S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Jordan PPI (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola will host its "Angola Oil & Gas" conference in Luanda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

Thursday, September 4, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, will meet with US trade negotiators in Washington today and Friday.

·       US Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran will get a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee to fill out the term of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

·       Bloomberg holds its Bloomberg Power Players New York Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before an Economic Club of New York Signature Luncheon.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before mHub Industry Disruptor Series event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August)/30/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/03) EARNINGS: Broadcom, Lululemon

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/30

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Household Spending (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark through September 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Handelsblatt banking summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

·       Hungary Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (August)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Business Confidence Q3

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Friday, September 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Wages (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Earnings (August)/ Government Payrolls (August)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (August)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Costa Rica    Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will host the 12th Japan-Australia meeting of foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo.

·       Singapore’s parliament goes into session.  This is the first gathering of parliament since the May elections when the ruling People’s Action Party won a commanding majority.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Reform holds it two-day national conference in Birmingham, England.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Global

·       There will be an OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia     Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts Putin and Modi at the SCO Meeting, Iran Returns to the (European) Negotiating Table, Trump’s Additional 25% Tariffs on India Begin, and Markets Await Key Inflation Reports

August 24 - 30, 2025

The busiest summer we can remember in a long time comes to an end this week here in the US with the Labor Day holiday.  And, proving true to its non-stop tempo, it will be another busy week around the world.  In Tianjin, China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will meet. Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts the leaders of Belarus, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and – perhaps most importantly – Russia and India. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend and meet with Xi just as President Trump seeks to push forward with Ukrainian peace talks and prepares to slap new 25% tariffs on India Wednesday (on top of the existing 25% tariffs) for buying Russian oil which helps fund the war (but, notably, not on China which also is a massive purchaser of Russian oil).   It also comes a week after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Indian officials in New Delhi to discuss ways to further de-escalate border tensions and discuss commonalities in dealing with the US.

Meanwhile, in Vienna this week, Iranian officials are expected to meet with UK, French, and German diplomats on their nuclear program.  Iran risked the three European countries triggering “snapback” sanctions on them if they did not participate.  The talks come in the wake of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressing frustration with Tehran refusing to account for the status of their refined uranium stockpiles after Israel and the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities.   IAEA officials are also expected in Washington this week to meet with US officials over the same matter.

As noted above, President Trump is expected to impose new 25% tariffs on India this week for refusing to step back from purchasing oil from Russia.  India is the second-largest purchaser of Russian oil after China.  But unlike China, India’s purchase of Russian oil has spiked by almost 50% since Russia invaded Ukraine at steep discounts and then largely resells it as refined petroleum products globally, 42 percent to countries sanctioning Russian crude.

Also this week, President Trump will host South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the White House.  It is Lee’s first meeting with Trump since being elected in early June. The meeting with Trump will be important as both leaders want to nail down important details of a new trade deal and how best to cooperate on how to deal with China.  South Korea has agreed to more than $350 billion of investment in the US, which includes $150 billion in shipbuilding and $100 billion in LNG purchases.

Lee is coming off his first meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Saturday, where they agreed to cooperate on clean energy, AI, the aging population, and ways to boost some of the lowest birth rates in the world, and working with the US on dealing with North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile programs.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screens this week, inflation is the big focus for markets.  In the US, the July PCE report on Friday will give a clearer indication of which way inflation is headed in advance of the September Federal Reserve Board interest rate decision.  Also out this week will be new home sales on Monday, pending home sales on Tuesday, and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator on Tuesday.

We would note two other important US economic/financial events this week: First, the “de minimis” exemptions end on Friday. That exemption allowed international carriers to ship goods valued at $800 or less to the US without paying duties.   The second event is Nvidia’s quarterly earnings, where markets and policy analysts will be watching for guidance from the company on their sales to China after President Trump struck a deal with the company allowing the sale of their H20 and B40 chips in exchange for a percentage of their sales to China.  But the Chinese government told local tech companies not to buy Nvidia’s chips due to “security concerns.”

In Europe, inflation is also top of mind as Germany releases the Ifo Survey on Monday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, and France's consumer confidence is out on Wednesday.    Also out this week is the European Central Bank’s minutes on Thursday. 

In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and consumer confidence reports are out on Thursday and Friday, respectively. And China’s industrial profits are out on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Elon Musk's SpaceX is set to launch its massive Starship rocket for a tenth time from Texas on Sunday to achieve several long-sought development milestones.

·       President Nicolas Maduro today is deploying militia and volunteers across Venezuela against US “threats” and is calling for civilians to join the militia and armed forces.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will hold a summit in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Economic & Financial  Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial  Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon(UNIFIL). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold closed consultations on the 1718 Committee (North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will travel to Washington, D.C. for his first meeting with President Donald Trump.  They are expected to discuss details of an emerging trade agreement to lower Washington's "reciprocal" tariffs to 15 percent.

·       A delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency will travel to Washington for high-level meetings on Iran’s nuclear program.  Iran has refused to explain what has happened to the 409 kilograms of enriched uranium the country developed following the US bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites.  Iran is also refusing to cooperate with the IAEA in accessing other key nuclear sites in the country.

·       US Navy warships are expected to arrive off the coast of Venezuela to assist in large-scale counter-narcotics operations.

·       Nigerian President Bola Tinubu will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia.

·       Today is Uruguay Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speak and participate in a panel before the Bank of Mexico Centennial Conference in Mexico City, Mexico.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)/ New Home Sales (July)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Building Permits (July)

·       Mexico Current Account Q2

·       Paraguay PPI (July)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia hosts “Super Garuda Shield, a joint military exercise with a ceremony in Jakarta co-hosted by the Indonesian and U.S. armed forces.  The annual drill will run for two weeks. Fifteen countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, are expected to take part, with a live-fire exercise scheduled to be held in Baturaja, Sumatra.

· Today is the Day of Songun, which is observed in North Korea. This holiday commemorates the start of the military-first rule in the nation, under the leadership of Kim Jong-il.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Evergrande will be delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

·       Japan Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Today is the Summer Bank Holiday in England and Wales.

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

·       Spain PPI (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate & Current Conditions & Expectations (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization of Islamic Cooperation will host an extraordinary meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on expanded Israeli military operations and a mounting humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambia hosts health ministers for the 75th session of the World Health Organization’s Regional Committee for Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and senior members of his Cabinet will travel to Germany to meet with Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the Central Bank of Mexico Conference in Mexico City, Mexico.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil Current Account (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July), Earnings: Scotiabank and BMO

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (July)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Redbook (August/23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (June)/ House Price Index (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (August)/ Money Supply (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/22), Earnings: Prudential

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Korean and U.S. militaries will hold the joint Ulchi Freedom Shield drills in South Korea through Aug. 28.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Singapore     Industrial Production (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran is expected to hold nuclear talks with French, British, and German diplomats in Vienna, Austria.  The three European countries have said they could re-activate UN sanctions on Iran under a snapback rule set in place unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table today.  Iran is refusing to disclose to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) what has happened to the 409 kilograms of enriched uranium the country developed following the US bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites.  Iran is also refusing to cooperate with the IAEA in accessing other key nuclear sites in the country.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       France Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will panelist at a conference commemorating the 100th Anniversary of the Central Bank of Mexico in Mexico City, Mexico.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (August)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the situation in Gaza.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s additional 25% tariffs on imports from India go into effect today.  Trump has said they are a penalty for buying Russian oil and raise the total tariffs on the South Asian nation to 50%, among the highest globally.

·       Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar travels to Washington for meetings with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 

·       Brazilian Vice President and Trade Minister Geraldo Alckmin will lead a delegation to Mexico to meet with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

·       The political campaign period for Argentina's Oct. 26 midterm legislative elections will begin. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nvidia reports second-quarter earnings. Markets will be focused on guidance from the company with regard to China after receiving permission from the Trump Administration to sell H20 chips to China in return for 15 percent of profits earned there.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/22)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/22)/ Fed Barkin Speech

·       Brazil Bank Lending (July)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (July)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (July), Earnings: RBC and EQB.

·       Colombia Business Confidence (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       APEC Energy Ministers will meet in Busan, South Korea through August 28.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)/ Construction Work Done Q2/ Monthly CPI Indicator (July)/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (July)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Moldova.  In honor of the day, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will visit the country to celebrate.

·       Spain’s Tomatina food fight festival takes place in Buñol, Spain, the world’s biggest food fight.  More than 20,000 people come to the town (whose population is 9,000) to throw tomatoes at each other.  In 2015 (the last time they checked), an estimated 320,000 pounds of tomatoes were thrown.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence SEP

·       Hungary Gross Wage (June)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (August)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (July)/ Jobseekers Total (July)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (August)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ Corporate Profits (June)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Real Wage Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (July)/ GDP (June)/ GDP (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Tanzania's electoral commission will announce which presidential candidates are confirmed to run in the country's Oct. 29 general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino will lead a business delegation to Brazil and meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner in Miami, Florida.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August)/ Net Payrolls (July)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Current Account Q2/ Average Weekly Earnings (June), Earnings: CIBC and Toronto-Dominion

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/23)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Pending Home Sales (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/22)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/27), Earnings: Dell, Marvell, Autodesk, Pernod Ricard

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia and Indonesia will hold a "two-plus-two" meeting of their foreign and defense ministers in Canberra. The biannual forum last took place in 2023, when current Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto attended as defense minister. This year's meeting will be the ninth since the format was launched in 2006 to strengthen ties between the two neighbors.

·       Bitcoin Asia 2025, one of Asia’s largest conferences, begins in Hong Kong.  Speakers are due to include Eric Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Yamaguchi, Japan.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/23)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (August)

·       Central Bank of South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q2/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure/ Private Capital Expenditure Q2

·       Malaysia PPI (July)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (July)

·       India Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Earnings: RHB Banking Group, Axiata Group, CITIC Securities, China Southern

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark though August 30.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank releases its July Monetary Policy Meeting minutes

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (July)/ Loans to Companies (July)/ Loans to Households (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)/ Economic Sentiment (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Industrial Sentiment (August)/ Selling Price Expectations (August)/ Services Sentiment (August)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/       Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Confidence Index (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/22)

·       Italy Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Industrial Sales (June)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (July)

·       Greece Total Credit (July)

·       Spain Business Confidence (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (July)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, August 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States will end the de minimis tariff exemption for small-value imported parcels under $800.

·       Elon Musk faces a court deadline to answer a US Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit over allegations he improperly benefited from a late disclosure of his purchases of shares of Twitter in 2022.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (July)/ Nominal Budget Balance (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP Implicit Price Q2/ Budget Balance (June), Earnings: Laurentian Bank

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (July)/ Personal Income (July)/ Personal Spending (July)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (July)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Chicago PMI (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/29)

·       Chile Copper Production (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Cement Production (July)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand's Constitutional Court will rule on whether to remove Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from her position over a leaked phone call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, in which she referred to a Thai army commander as the "opposite side." In the wake of the leak, she was criticized for showing a lack of responsibility and integrity, as well as putting the country's sovereignty at risk.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Japan for an annual summit with his counterpart, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The two are seeking to bolster trade and security cooperation.

·       Samoa holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD releases quarterly earnings.  Markets are watching closely to get a deeper sense of how intense the growing electric car sector is dealing with price competition hitting new levels.  Also reporting today will be Alibaba, the Bank of China, China Construction Bank, the Agricultural Bank if China, ICBC, COSCO Shipping, China Eastern, and Air China.

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index

·       South Korea Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (July)/ Jobs/applications ratio (July)/ Tokyo CPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Construction Orders (July)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Australia Housing Credit (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Export Prices (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Private Consumption (July)/ Private Investment (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       India Government Budget Value (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/15)/ Deposit Growth (August/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/22)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will attend the 25th Franco-German Council of Ministers in Berlin, Germany.  It is expected that the two countries will discuss joint defense projects and trade negotiations.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Gymnich, Germany, from August 30.

·       Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha will visit Slovenia for bilateral talks.

·       Today is the anniversary of the Slovak National Uprising, which took place in 1944 against the Nazis.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will deliver remarks at the Crusos Europeos de Verano in Pamplona, Spain.

·       Great Britain Car Production (July)

·       Germany Retail Sales (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Unemployed Persons (August)/ Unemployment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (August)/ Bavaria CPI (August)/ Brandenburg CPI (August)/ Hesse CPI (August)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (August)/ Saxony CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (July)

·       France Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Household Consumption (July)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ PPI (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Current Account (June)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (August)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Greece PPI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Ukraine Current Account (July)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (July)          

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, August 30, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor, commemorating the referendum that took place in 1999, giving the island nation greater autonomy from Indonesia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial  Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkey Victory Day, also known as Turkish Armed Forces Day.  It celebrates Turkey’s victory over the Greeks in 1922 at the Battle of Dumlupinar.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China, hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to attend.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Hosting An Extraordinary Meeting with Ukrainian President and Six European Leaders, Israel Poised to Approve A Controversial New West Bank Housing Plan, China Seeks a Deal with India on Their Border Dispute, and Global Central Bankers Converge on Jackson Hole

The busiest August we can remember in a long time looks to intensify this week.  Following President Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, Trump will host Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine and possibly longer-term peace terms.  In an extraordinary move, Zelensky will be accompanied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

It appears, according to numerous reports, that President Trump is considering unprecedented US security guarantees for Ukraine in return for a peace deal.  But the entire situation remains tense and very much in flux.  Markets will be watching all of this closely tomorrow to get some indication of movement one way or another.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Higher Planning Committee will be considering a highly controversial plan to allow the building of 3,400 new homes in the West Bank for Israeli settlers.  The building plan, known as the E1 Settlement Project, would take place east of Jerusalem and is likely to be approved.  By doing so, it is seen as likely to block efforts to establish a Palestinian State, as Palestinian leaders had seen the land where the homes would be built as where they would build their capital.  EU leaders have urged Israel to refrain from approving the deal.

In Asia this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit New Delhi for the first time in three years to discuss possible measures to reduce troops on the Himalayan border, further reducing tensions between the two nations.   Later in the week, India’s Foreign Minister, S. Jainshankar, will travel to Moscow for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The meeting comes after President Trump slapped 25% secondary tariffs on India on top of the existing 25% tariffs for their trade in Russian oil.   Markets will be watching closely for any movement between India and Russia – either pledging to continue the oil purchases or suggesting a slowdown.

The global economic radar screen this week is also a busy one.  The big event is the annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this week where central bankers from around the world will gather to talk and speak to the theme of event ““Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”    We are reminded that at last year’s Symposium, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell said it was time to lower rates, which the Fed then followed through on.  Will we hear him say something similar this year in his speech a month in advance of the Fed’s FOMC September meeting?

Also happening concurrently with the Jackson Hole Symposium will be the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, bringing together top crypto business leaders, US regulators, and members of Congress. 

In terms of major economic reports this week, in the Americas,  the US FOMC minutes from July are released on Wednesday, and  Canada releases July CPI figures on Tuesday.  In Asia, China’s central bank interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday, South Korea’s July PPI on Thursday, and Japan’s July CPI data on Friday.  And in Europe, the UK releases July CPI on Wednesday, Germany’s June manufacturing index is out Tuesday, and July PPI data on Wednesday, Eurozone HICP inflation data on Wednesday, and on Thursday, PMI data for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and the UK. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 17, 2025

Global

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.

· The International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI) conference takes place in Montreal, Canada, from August 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Summit of the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) holds its 45th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

·       Today is Independence Day in Gabon.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 18, 2025

Global

·       the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House to discuss Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week and next steps toward a possible cease fire in the Ukraine war.  Also attending the meeting will be ATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

·       Canada holds by-elections which could see Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre return to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)

·       Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (August)

·       El Salvador PPI (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit India to discuss drawing down troops at their disputed border.

·       The U.S. and South Korea will hold their annual military drills, known as Ulchi Freedom Shield. About 18,000 South Korean soldiers will take part in the live-fire exercises amid North Korea's warnings of reprisals for what it says is a "direct military provocation.”

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will visit Japan for meetings with Japanese officials to discuss bolstering their strategic relationship.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (July)/ Services NZ PSI (July)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (June)

·       India Unemployment Rate (July)

·       China FDI (YTD) (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Financial Times Business Book of the Year longlist announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

·       Spain Balance of Trade (June)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (July)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (July)/ GDP (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a visit to Armenia and Belarus for a two-day visit.  He will then travel on to Pakistan for bilateral meetings.

·       US envoys Thomas Barrack and Morgan Ortagus visit Beirut, Lebanon for meetings on how to further the peace process in the country and also further urge the disarming of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the rebel group M23 to sign a peace agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Global

·       The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) begins in Yokohama, Japan and runs through August 22. The conference is led by Japan and co-hosted by the United Nations, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), World Bank and African Union Commission (AUC). The theme of the conference is “Co-create innovative solutions with Africa”.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

·       SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)

·       USA Building Permits (July)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Redbook (August/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/15)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index/ RBA Connolly Speech

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Euro Area Current Account (June)

·       Slovakia Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (July)/ Inflation Expectations (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (July)

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at Teton Village, Wyoming.  The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.”  You can access all papers presented at the Symposium HERE.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the topic of payments at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

·       FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/15)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (July)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Activity (June)/ Leading Indicator (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono will host German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in Jakarta.

·       The Thailand Electronics Circuit Asia 2025 trade show kicks off in Bangkok. The three-day event will bring together hundreds of companies from across the tech supply chain, with a major focus on printed circuit boards, a key component used in all types of electronic devices.

·       The Taiwan Automation Intelligence and Robot Show opens in Taipei. Exhibitors at the four-day fair will show off the latest advances in smart manufacturing, robotics, artificial intelligence, and more.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor (business services) Michelle McPhee and assistant governor (financial system) Brad Jones take part in an online panel discussion at The Future of Money webinar.

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Machinery Orders (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

·       India M3 Money Supply (August/08)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends a meeting of the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Russian central bank publishes household inflation expectations.

·       Germany PPI (July)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)/ PPI Input (July)/ PPI Output (July)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Greece Current Account (June)

·       Euro Area CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2

·       Italy Current Account (June)/ Residential Property Prices (June)

·       Russia PPI (July)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel's Higher Planning Committee will vote on the E1 West Bank settlement plan which could allow 3,400 more Israeli settlement homes in the area.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a briefing on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber executive committee meeting.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/16)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Philly Fed Employment & New Orders & Prices Paid (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ CB Leading Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/20)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (July)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Credit Card Spending (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)               

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       India HSBC Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam S. Jaishankar.  They will discuss “key issues on our bilateral agenda, as well as key aspects of cooperation within international frameworks." 
Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

·       France HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

·       Germany HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Bundesbank Monthly Report

·       Euro Area HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Construction Output (June)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Slovenia PPI (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (June)

Friday, August 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on entitled “The Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (August)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)

·       Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

·       Chile PPI (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/22)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand's Criminal Court is due to hand down its verdict on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a lese majeste case. The 75-year-old Thaksin is accused of insulting the monarchy during an interview with the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo in May 2015.

·       In South Korea, the People Power party to decide a new leader from a shortlist of four at its national convention. The embattled conservative party’s support has plummeted after disgraced former PPP president Yoon Suk Yeol was removed from office

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q2/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Euro Area     ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung will make his first overseas trip for a bilateral summit when he travels to Tokyo to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. After his Japan trip, Lee will head to Washington for a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, August 25.

·       Taiwan holds a referendum on whether to restart its Maanshan nuclear power plant, the shutdown of which marked the end of the island's atomic energy era in May. The opposition Taiwan People's Party pushed for the vote on the grounds that reactivation is necessary for energy stability and security. President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has said he will vote "no." The referendum coincides with a handful of districts voting in recall elections against opposition Kuomintang lawmakers, after a larger first set of recall attempts all failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion at the annual Economic Policy Symposium entitled “The policy implications of labor market transition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump to Make “Major Statement” on Ukraine, Japan Holds Major Elections, German Chancellor Merz Travels to London To Sign the UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty, and the G20 Finance Ministers Meet in South Africa

July 13 - 20, 2025

It will be another hectic week on the geopolitical stage as President Trump has promised to make a “major statement” on Ukraine on Monday.  The announcement, which is expected to be a substantial commitment of new military aid to Ukraine, comes as the President meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington.  If Trump does, in fact, announce a sizeable commitment of weapons to Kyiv, it will be a major policy shift for the President and suggest a significant new turn in the war, not to mention Trump’s growing irritation with Russian President Vladimir Putin for refusing to engage in peace negotiations. 

All this comes as President Trump continues to press forward with aggressive tariff threats, announcing on Friday that he is putting new tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, and Canada.   Both Mexico and Canada are going to be hit with new 30 percent tariffs for fentanyl smuggling into the US, according to a letter Trump posted on Truth Social, his media platform.   The EU will also face new 30 percent tariffs, according to Trump’s letter, for failing to deal in good faith with the US in ongoing trade negotiations.

Also, this week, markets will be watching Japan’s Upper House elections to understand the further stability of  Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s ruling government and what sort of flexibility the Bank of Japan has on raising interest rates.  Japan’s opposition parties are advocating for tax cuts and looser monetary policy, and if they gain substantially in Sunday’s elections, the central bank will feel significant pressure not to raise rates.

Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos next Sunday for trade talks while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka.  While no formal bilateral meetings between Bessent and Japanese negotiators have been announced, it is expected that he will sit down with them while there to try and unlock stalled trade talks.

In Europe this week, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz makes his first visit to London since being elected in May. While there, he will sign a new UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty designed to significantly ramp up mutual defense and economic cooperation, all part of greater Europe’s effort rapidly build up military capabilities in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and Russian President Putin’s continuous demands for Eastern European countries to leave NATO.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, G20 finance and central bank governors meet in South Africa.  No significant announcements or outcomes are expected from those meetings at this time.

In terms of major economic reports this week, the highly anticipated US June CPI report is out on Tuesday, telling markets if there is any new inflationary movement as a result of the Trump tariffs.  The PPI report will be out on Wednesday, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey results for July will be released on Friday. Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, along with industrial production numbers.  And the June retail sales come out on Thursday.

While we normally do not cover earnings, we note that many of the largest US banks will be releasing earnings this week (JP Morgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs).  Markets will be looking to see how strong their earnings are as another indicator of overall US economic strength.

Turning to Asia, China’s Q2 GDP and June retail activity data are out on Tuesday. Japan releases the Bank of Japan’s Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior for June on Monday, the June customs trade data on Thursday, and the CPI figures on Friday.

In Europe this week, the UK will release CPI data on Wednesday and labor market reports on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues a six-day visit to China (which began on Saturday).  Albanese has brought a large delegation of Australian businessmen in the hope of signing a number of trade deals.

·       Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to China for the first time in five years for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  Jainshankar will then travel on to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Council of Foreign Ministers July 14-15.  The Chinese and Indian Foreign Ministers are expected to discuss Indian-Pakistan tensions, rare earth supplies to India, the Dalai Lama’s succession, and the resumption of direct flights between the two countries.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Pyongyang, South Korea.

·       Australia will host the Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 military drills with 18 other participating nations, including the United States and Japan, through August 4.

·       Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words, enemies of Imperial Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.

·       Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) and the UN Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the  
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).  

·       The UN’s  High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) will open its session in the General Assembly Hall at the UN Headquarters in New York. The Forum will continue until 23 July. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will be in Washington through July 15 for meetings with President Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.  President Trump, in an interview last week, said he would “have a major statement to make on Russia” today.  It is believed he will formally announce new military aid programs for Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (May)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers meets in Tianjin through July 15.  They are expected to discuss regional trade and security matters.  There are nine members of the SCO: the Republic of India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People's Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan.

·       The China-EU Sixth High-Level Environment and Climate Dialogue begins in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (June)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (June)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Tertiary Industry Index (May)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ New Yuan Loans (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (June)/ Total Social Financing (June)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (May)

·       India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  EU trade ministers are expected to discuss the state of trade negotiations with the US, EU-China trade relations, and other major issues.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  The agenda includes an overview of the current marketplace and an EU-wide initiative to diversify protein sources for food and feed.

·       The first-ever EU-Central America Association Council meets in Brussels.  The meeting brings together leaders from the EU and six Central American countries - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. 

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.  Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is the guest of honor, per an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in an exchange of views at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Hungary Construction Output (May)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

·       Romania Current Account (May)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (June)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Global

·       OPEC releases its monthly report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will speak at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

·       The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for former National Security Advisor Mike Walz to serve as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

·       The Aspen Security Forum begins in Aspen, Colorado.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “Expanding Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before an event of the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.

·       Canada Housing Starts (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)

·       USA Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)/ Redbook (July/12)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/11)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (July)

·       China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)/ GDP (June)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/15)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas will chair the meeting of EU Foreign Ministers.  The primary agenda items will be Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and will include a video discussion with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha.  The ministers will also discuss the situation in Georgia, the Middle East (Gaza, Israel, and Iran), and the New Pact for the Mediterranean.

·       UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives annual Mansion House speech in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner at Mansion House in London.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Romania Industrial Production (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ Industrial Production (May)/ ECB Buch Speech

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

·       Serbia Building Permits (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (June)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (May)/ Mining Production (May)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is convening an informal meeting on Cyprus at UN Headquarters. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The inauguration of Jennifer Geerlings-Simons as the new President of Suriname is held in Paramiribo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.

·       The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book/ USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/11)/ PPI (June)/Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/11)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing begins and runs through Saturday. Nvidia will take part for the first time, according to state media reports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Export Prices (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission will present a sweeping new EU budget reform package. This swill include proposals for the 2028-2035 EU multiannual financial framework that will include closer alignment on strategic priorities such as rearmament, industrial competition, and tech policy.

·       There will be informal meetings of EU Research Ministers and EU Ministers for Internal Markets and Industry in Brussels through July 18.

·       The Foreign Ministers of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine – the so-called “Lublin Triangle” – will meet in Lublin, Lithuania.

·       German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and French counterpart Eric Lombard meet and hold a press conference in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (May)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (May)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (May)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (June)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (June)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (May)

·       Russia PPI (June)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambia will hold an International Investment Conference in Lusaka through July 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (May)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

Global

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will begin two days of meetings in Zimbali, South Africa through July 18.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (ending hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ / NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in South Korea, which is not a national holiday anymore as of 2008.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (June)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/12)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Employment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (June)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to London for his first official meeting since taking office in May.  He will meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and will also sign the UK–Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty that will include significant mutual defense and economic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (June)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (May)

·       Serbia Current Account (May)

·       Belarus GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (May)

Friday, July 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Housing Starts (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/18)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (July/04)/ Deposit Growth (July/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Romanian President Nicuşor Dan in Berlin, Germany.

·       EU Immigration Ministers will gather in Berlin to discuss asylum rules.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (June)

·       Euro Area Current Account (May)/ Construction Output (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (May)

·       Turkey Business Confidence Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

·       Slovakia Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 19, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka.  It is unclear at this point whether Bessent will hold bilateral meetings on trade with Japanese officials while there.

·       Today is Liberation Day in Nicaragua, a national holiday celebrating the beginning of the hostilities pushing the Somoza family from power.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos travels to Washington for meetings with President Trump through July 22.

·       Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.  124 of the 248 members are up for election in the National Diet where they serve six-year terms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (July)

·       Japan Upper House Election

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The BRICS Leaders’ Summit Is Held in Brazil, The Quad Foreign Ministers Meet in Washington, China’s Foreign Minister Travels to the EU, and the ECB Holds the European Central Bank Forum

June 29 - July 6, 2025

This coming Sunday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) hosts the 17th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro.   The meeting will comprise most of the leadership of original member states – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – plus the leaders from five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.  Nine other countries have been designated “partner countries,” and their leaders are likely to attend.  Lula has set the theme of the Summit as “Strengthening Global South Cooperation for More Inclusive Sustainable Governance,” and he is expected to significantly address multiple challenges to Western political and economic dominance, including the dominance of the US dollar.

However, the likely outcomes of the Summit were cut down this past week when both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced they were not attending. Xi said he had a “scheduling conflict,” and Putin is worried he could get arrested for war crimes he’s ordered in Ukraine.  Not having these two at the Summit has already taken considerable energy out of the event.

Meanwhile, in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts the foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan for a meeting of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue).  The meeting could prove to be quite revealing about the future of relations between the US and the other QUAD members.  It comes on the heels of the US canceling a meeting this coming week with the Japanese defense and foreign counterparts after senior US defense officials, led by Defense Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, demanded Japan massively boost its defense spending, much more than had been previously requested. 

Colby also announced a review of the enormous joint project with Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines, a move which has angered Australian leadership.

Also in Washington this week, Congress continues to battle over President Trump’s signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  As of this writing, the US Senate is expected to vote late Sunday or early Monday morning on the bill.  The House is looking to vote on what the Senate sends them, either late Tuesday or Wednesday, meeting President Trump’s July 4th deadline.

We would also note that Canada celebrates Canada Day on Monday, and the US celebrates Independence Day on Friday.  A wonderful week to celebrate independence and liberty!

Looking at the global financial markets this week, the big event markets are looking at is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2025 being held in Portugal.  We think of it as the European version of the annual Jackson Hole event the Fed hosts in August. The ECB Forum will have a lot of interesting speeches and panels. Fed Chair Jay Powell will be one of the participants and speakers.

Also this week, the ECB will be releasing the minutes from their last interest rate meeting this week, too.  Staying in Europe, the major economic releases there this week include the Eurozone’s, Germany’s and Italy’s CPI prints are out this week.  Germany also releases factor orders this week.

In Asia, China releases its latest PMI report as well as the Caixin indicators.  Japan industrial production for May is out this week, along with the Bank of Japan’s Q2 Tankan Survey. 

Bringing it back to the US, the June jobs report is out Thursday after the JOLTS report is released Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday.   Also out this week is the June ISM indices on Tuesday and international trade balance and factory orders for May on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile’s ruling left-wing voters head to the polls to select their candidate for president for the upcoming November elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/M3 Money Supply (May)/Private Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN 4th International Conference on Financing for Development begins in Sevilla, Spain and runs through July 3.

·       The BRICS 34d Sherpas Meeting takes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil through July 4 in advance of the upcoming BRICS Leaders Meeting which begins on Sunday, July 6.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) and also, to the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (regarding the Golan Heights).

·       The World Trade Organization Trade and Environment Week conference begins in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand will have a trade team in Washington to negotiate a trade deal with the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before an MNI Livestreamed Connect Video Conference.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025.

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       USA Chicago PMI (June)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn/ Soy/ Wheat (June)/

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (April)

·       Costa Rica Current Account Q1

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi begin a visit to Europe where he will hold bilateral meetings in Brussels with EU officials and take part in the 13th round of China-EU High-Level Strategic Dialogue, then Germany, and finally in France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Japan Industrial Production (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Construction Orders (May)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (June)/ Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Totality Dwelling Prices (June)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (June)

·       China NBS General/ Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption & Investment (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/Government Budget Value (May)/ Current Account Q1/ External Debt Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Kyrgyzstan for bilateral meetings.

·       The 15th City Week 2025 conference begins in London and runs through July 2.  The event is organized in partnership with the UK Government, the City of London Corporation, TheCity UK, UK Finance and leading City institutions.

·       The Wimbledon tennis tournament begins in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank hosts the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.  There are multiple panels and speeches scheduled for the conference which runs through Wednesday.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory speech at the opening reception of ECB Forum on Central Banking 2025 "Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses" in Sintra, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at a conference organized by Instituto Atlántico de Gobierno (IADG) in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (June)/ Bavaria CPI (June)/ Brandenburg CPI (June)/ Hesse CPI (June)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (June)/ Saxony CPI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ BoE Consumer Credit (May)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (May)/ M4 Money Supply (May)/ Net Lending to Individuals (May)

·       Hungary PPI (May)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

·       Poland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Spain Current Account (April)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Total Credit (May)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (June)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (May)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lebanese Parliament commences a new legislative session.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       In Abuja, Nigeria the 24th annual NOG Sub Saharan Energy Sector Conference takes place through July 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Budget Balance (May)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Global

·       Pakistan takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts the Quad Foreign Ministers in Washington.  The foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan will discuss mutual security issues.

·       Today is Canada Day, a national holiday.  Markets are closed.

·       In New York City, Democratic Mayoral candidate is expected to be declared the final winner of the Democratic mayoral primary.

·       Today is “Ketikoti” – Emancipation Day – in Suriname celebrating when slaver was abolished.

·       Today is Territory Day in the British Virgin Islands, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

·       USA Redbook (June/28)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)/ JOLTs Job Openings (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (June)/ Construction Spending (May)/ JOLTs Job Quits (May)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/27)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam will cut the number of provinces and cities to 34 from 63, in the country's biggest reform in nearly four decades. The government is aiming to increase efficiency, cut costs and reduce the number of civil servants across government bodies as it seeks to streamline the state apparatus and boost growth.

·       Today in China is Founding Day of the Chinese Communist Party.

·       Today is Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, the anniversary marking when the UK handed the island back to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2/ Building Permits (May)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/ Commodity Prices (June)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2/ Tankan Large Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ Small Outlook and Index Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Business Confidence Q2

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Bank Lending (May)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (June)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The British Parliament is expected to hold a highly contentious vote on welfare reform.

·       Denmark takes up the EU presidency for the next six months.

·       In Russia, a country-wide increase of energy, gas, water and heating supply prices for households.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in a Strategic Dialogue with the World Economic Forum and global business leaders in Brussels.

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz receives Luxembourg's Prime Minister Luc Frieden with military honors followed by a press conference

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey begins a the new 3-year chair of the Financial Stability Board.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a keynote address at City Week 2025.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Green Gilt 2053

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (May)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (May)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing (June)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ New Car Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Germany Unemployed Persons (June)/ Unemployment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Flash (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Ukraine Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Burundi, a national holiday.

·       Today is Ghana Republic Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Sir Seretse Khama Day in Botswana, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (June)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (June)

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Global

·       The OECD Green Growth and Development Forum begins in Paris. The two-day event will assess how forests and agriculture can help meet climate targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The  66th Ordinary Meeting of the Common Market Council and Summit of Presidents of Mercosur and Associated States begins in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendara Modi begins visits to Trinidad and Tobago, Argentina, and Brazil through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June)/ Industrial Production (May)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/27)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/27)/ Challenger Job Cuts (June)/ ADP Employment Change (June)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/27)/ Total Vehicle Sales (June)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (June)

·       Philippines PPI (May)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (June)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (May)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Space Forum begins in Brussels and runs through July 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives the keynote speech at the Frankfurt Banking Summit 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills vives. Keynote speech at City Week 2025 on “The Bank of England’s Approach to Innovation in Digital Assets and Payments.”

·       Romania PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       France Budget Balance (May)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Great Britain Treasury Gilt 2028

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (July)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Corporate Profits (April)/ Real Wage Growth (April)/ Retail Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (April)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/28)/ Participation Rate (June)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (June)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, The upper house election campaign in Japan will officially begin, with voters set to cast their ballots on July 20. Of the chamber's 248 seats, 125 will be up for grabs. As Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito could not secure a majority in the lower house election last year, this election could have a major impact on the operations of the government..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Jajimie Takata will give a speech to local business leaders in Mie, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/28)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (June)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Belarus (which really isn’t independent..).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank publishes accounts of its last monetary policy meeting.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/27)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Jordan PPI (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q1

Friday, July 4, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 3rd Meeting of Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Deputies takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       The BRICS Business Forum takes place in Brasilia, Brazil through July 5.

·       The UN is closed as part of the 4th of July celebration in the US.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the United States, a national holiday, and financial markets are closed.

· In Cuba, the Communist Party holds a plenary session to address the island's ongoing economic crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (June)

·       Colombia Exports (May)/ PPI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Republic Day in the Philippines, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Current Account (May)

·       Japan Household Spending (May)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (May)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (June/20)/ Deposit Growth (June/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The EU–Moldova Summit will be held in Chișinău, Moldova.  European Council president António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, his counterpart at the European Commission, will meet Maia Sandu, the Moldovan president. It is expected they will discuss the country’s future in the EU and its sovereignty amid Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will meet with German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the International Monetary Fund OEDNE/World Bank Group EDS19 Constituency Meeting in Luxembourg.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives s public lecture at the London School of Economics on the natural rate of interest rates.

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Germany Factory Orders (May)/ HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (May)

·       France Industrial Production (May)/ HCOB Construction PMI (June)

·       Spain Industrial Production (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (June)/ / PPI (May)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (June)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (May)

·       Serbia PPI (June)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/     Balance of Trade Prel (June)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Rwanda Liberation Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Global

·       The 1st BRICS Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors Meeting will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Venezuela (which is not independent or free…).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa-Spain Cooperation Summit begins in Madrid.

·       Today is Constitution Day in Armenia, a national holiday.

·       The 112th Tour de France cycling race begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Algeria's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 6, 2025

Global

The 15th  BRICS Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through July 7.  Eleven members are expected to be represented.  However, neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Russian President Vladimir Putin are going to attend.

The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held (virtually)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 49th CARICOM (Caribbean Community) Heads of Government Meeting begins in Montego Bay, Jamaica and runs through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Dalai Lama is expected to reveal his succession plan via a video announcement.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in Comoros, a national holiday.

·       Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

June 22 - 29, 2025

The US Attacked Iran – Now What?, The NATO Summit Convenes, Followed by the European Council, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Defense Ministers Meet, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before Congress

As we write this, the world is waking up to learn that President Donald Trump ordered the attack on three Iranian nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – and, reportedly, a number of other strategic Iranian sites.   According to Trump Administration officials, the attacks “obliterated” the targets, but US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Daniel Caine said it was “way too early” to comment on whether Iran retained nuclear capabilities.  Damage assessments are being conducted by the US and Isreal, and we are likely to learn a lot more of the effectiveness of the attacks in the coming days. 

Additionally, as Israeli Defense Force (IDF) sources have said, “it is too early to tell” if Iran moved any fissile materials from Fordow before the strike.  What we are watching for now are three things:

1. What will Iran do to retaliate against the US?  Will they attack US forces stationed in the region (there are close to 50,000 US troops stationed at a number of bases in the Middle East).

2. Will Iran move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz (as Iran’s Parliament voted to do this morning), paralyzing energy shipping and further raising tensions in the region with Gulf State nations.  Only the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can make that decision, which ultimately would severely damage Iran’s already brittle economy.

3. Will Iran dare to activate suspected sleeper cells in the US and elsewhere to attack?  Do they even have such cells in the US?

As all this takes place, the 2025 NATO Summit begins on Tuesday in the Netherlands, bringing together the leaders of all the NATO members, including President Trump.  Other non-NATO heads of state have been invited to attend, including the Prime Ministers of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Ukraine, as well as the Presidents of South Korea, the European Council, and the European Commission. 

There are two things’ markets should watch at the Summit:  Will Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee get a chance to talk with Trump on the sidelines to secure trade agreements (something they had hoped to do at the G7 but did not happen as Trump left the summit early to return to Washington to deal with Iran).  And second, will NATO members collectively agree to an increase in defense spending targets from 2% of GDP to 3.5% for defense spending, with an additional 1.5% for infrastructure spending, bringing the level to 5% of GDP?  And by what timeline – 2030 or 2035?

European leaders will then roll into a European Council meeting on Thursday, where the Middle East will again dominate the agenda, as will defense spending, and trying to figure out a trade agreement with the US.

Elsewhere in the world this week, the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be meeting in China. The SCO is composed of Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, and again, the situation in Iran will dominate the agenda.  But it is expected that the SCO may touch on ongoing border tensions between India and China, ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India, and Ukraine. 

In Washington this week, the two big events will be the US Senate’s continued efforts to hammer out a compromise among Senate Republicans on President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) has said he wants to bring it to a vote this week but we believe it likely to slip into next week as Congress is going to be distracted by President Trump’s Iran action along with real disagreements on the substance of the bill, mostly around state and local taxes (SALT) exemptions and Section 899 which would give the US Treasury the power to place tough taxes on foreign corporations from countries that place heavy taxes on US corporations.

The second event markets are going to be watching closely is Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s testimony Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee on the state of the economy.  With all that is going on geopolitically and with President Trump’s tariffs, these should be lively hearings (to say the least).

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond Powell’s testimony, markets will be listening closely to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s comments Monday before the EU Parliament and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony before the House of Lords. 

In the US, the May PCE report is released this week, as well as Q1 GDP numbers. And the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is out on Tuesday.

In Asia, Japan’s June CPI is released on Friday, as well as the Bank of Japan’s minutes from their last meeting on Wednesday.  China’s May Industrial profits are out on Friday, too.

In Europe,  the Eurozone’s June economic sentiment reports are out on Friday, Germany’s Ifo Survey on Tuesday, and France and Spain’s June CPI on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is scheduled to visit Israel.  He will address the Israeli Knesset (NOTE: Johnson’s trip may be canceled because of the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Iran.)

·       Today is the tentative date Telsa will launch their new Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a monetary policy insights panel before the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections take place.  There are 127 seats representing the 14 million residents of Tokyo open for election.

·       Today is the 60th anniversary of Japan and South Korea establishing diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Business Summit begins in Luanda, Angola.  More than 1,500 attendees including a number of African government leaders, are expected to attend the three-day event.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) followed by consultations..

·       The 7th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting begins in Milan, Italy.  The Meeting is also the 27th meeting of the Committee for Environmental Protection — running until July 3.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair  Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy and banking at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds a virtual discussion with business and community leaders on "the effects that labor market conditions, inflation, and interest rates have on them.”  The event is being hosted by SUNY Schenectady Community College.  New York Fed President John Williams will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

·       Monday, June 24, 12:10 p.m. Central Time – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Milwaukee Business Journal Mid-Year Outlook 2025.

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash/ Existing Home Sales (May)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Paraguay PPI (May)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India is expected to re-open its airspace to commercial Pakistani planes following the recent fighting between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The agenda includes an update and discussion of the situation in Ukraine, China and European security issues, the situation in the Middle East and Libya, and the situation in Georgia.

·       The EU-Canada Summit takes in Brussels.  Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with EU President Ursala von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.  The topics will cover the current geopolitical situation, economy and trade, and a number of sectorial issues they can improve on cooperation.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through June 24. the Council will seek to reach a general approach on a regulation on a forest monitoring framework for resilient European forests. The proposal aims to establish a high-quality forest monitoring system to track progress on achieving EU targets and policy objectives concerning forests.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through June 24 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Net Zero Delivery Summit, hosted by the City of London Corporation, part of London Climate Action Week, takes place in London. Speakers include Lord Mayor of the City of London Alastair King.

·       Today is Victory Day in Estonia, a national holiday celebrating when the country sought independence following the end of World War I.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives  an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (April)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)

·       Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April & May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya this will be followed by consultations. In the afternoon there will be a briefing on non-proliferation. 

·       The Internet Governance Forum Summit takes place in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to present a process for adding additional tariffs on auto parts.

·       The New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on monetary policy before the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025.

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City holds a virtual discussion on "the current state of the agricultural economy and future prospects, part of its "Fed Listens" series.  Speakers will include Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr and Jeff Schmid, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the “State of the Nation's Housing 2025" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (June)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI Median (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)

·       USA Current Account Q1/ Redbook (June/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ House Price Index (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index/ Money Supply (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/20)

·       Chile PPI (May)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In China, the 14th National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee (NPCSC) - China’s senior legislative body -  convenes for its 16th session, running until Friday.  The committee will review draft revisions to the Public Security Administrative Penalty Law, the Law against Unfair Competition, the Maritime Law, the Fisheries Law, and the Civil Aviation Law, as well as draft laws on responding to public health emergencies, and promoting publicity and education on the rule of law.

·       The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) AIIB begins a three-day annual meeting in Beijing to elect a successor to founding President Jin Liqun. He is due to step down next January after serving two five-year terms from the bank's inception. The favorite to replace him is China's nominee, Zou Jiayi, who is one of the more than 200 elite members of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee.

·       The annual summer meeting of the World Economic Forum returns to Tianjin, near Beijing. Among the speakers at the three-day forum are Richard Liu, founder and chairman of Chinese online retailer JD.com; Dai Houliang, chairman of China National Petroleum; and Faisal Alibrahim, the minister of economy and planning of Saudi Arabia. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who is on a first visit to China as prime minister from June 22 to 26, will also speak at the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Index (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 NATO Summit begins in the Hague, Netherlands.  The primary focus of the Summit was expected to be the War in Ukraine.  However with the US bombing of Iran this past weekend, the Iranian issue will likely dominate talks.  Additionally, a number of non-NATO member leaders will be attendance including Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.  Both Ishiba and Lee are hoping to use the opportunity to move forward with a trade deal with US President Trump.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The primary topic will be preparations for the upcoming June European Council meetings on June 26-27.

·       The German 2025 budget will be published by the cabinet.  The government has been operating on a pro-rata provision budget due to the early elections.

·       The French far-left La France Insoumise Party is expected to file a no-confidence motion against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives remarks on Britain’s return to the gold standard in 1925.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives remarks at the NIESR Conference in London.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives remarks that the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and takes Q&A at the XLII APIE seminar organized by Association of Spanish Financial journalists and Universidad Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks on the occasion of the conferral of the De Sanctis Award "Europa" to her in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025 in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a dinner speech followed by Q&A at SSM-Senior Forum organized by A&O Shearman in Königstein, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (June)/ Ifo Current Conditions (June)/ Ifo Expectations (June)

·       Poland Retail Sales (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain BoE Greene Speech/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Children and Armed Conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        The Organization of American States hosts its annual assembly in Antigua and Barbuda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

·       The  Federal Reserve holds a meeting "to discuss proposed revisions to the Board's supplementary leverage ratio standards."

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/20)/New Home Sales (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/20)/ Building Permits Final (May)          

·       Brazil Current Account (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (May)

·       Argentina Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers Meeting will take place in Qingdao, China.  The attendees will be from member countries China, Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.

·       The ASEAN IA Summit takes place in Kuala Lumpur.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s invasion of South Korea.

·       Nikkei and the Financial Times are co-hosting Energy Transition Summit Asia 2025 in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Fukushima, Japan.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index Final (April)/ Leading Economic Index Final (April)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (June/13)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Trade union workers at the Port of Antwerp are expected to either strike or run a work-slow down as they seek increased pay and better work conditions.   The Antwerp Port is already significantly backlogged.

·       Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating when the country declared its independence from the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991.

·       Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking when the country when a plebiscite was held and 95% of voters voted for independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a keynote speech at the UK Finance Digital Innovation Summit in London.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (May)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       France Consumer Confidence (June)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (May)/ Jobseekers Total (May)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Russia Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mozambique Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Global

·       The Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

·       Today is the 80th Anniversary of the first 50 countries signing the Charter of the United Nations, effectively found the United Nations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds its 2025 Policy Summit, beginning at 9 a.m., with the theme "Building Strong and Sustainable Communities.”  Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will speak on June 26th.  Governor Lisa Cook will speak on June 27 at 9:15 a.m.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy before the New York Association for Business Economics.

·       Brazil BCB Monetary Policy Report/ IPCA mid-month CPI (June)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/21)/ PCE Prices Q1/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/25)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (April)/ Wholesale Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (June)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

·       Malaysia PPI (May)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (May)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets in Brussels through June 27.  EU leaders will gather to discuss a host of issues ranging from Ukraine to the situation in Iran, EU competitiveness, and the situation in Gaza.

·       Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank holds a General Council Meeting (virtual).

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the British Chamber of Commerce Global Annual Conference in London.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives the opening speech at the 150th anniversary of Münchner Opernfestspiele in Munich, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a virtual the Deutsche Bank Forum 2025 being held in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel speaks and participates on a panel discussion at the 'Wirtschaftsrat der CDU' Finanzmarktklausur in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUL

·       Hungary Current Account Q1

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech/ CBI Distributive Trades (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Iran Local Elections

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madagascar Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q2/ PPI (May)

Friday, June 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan followed by consultations, and in the afternoon is scheduled to have a briefing United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations.

·       The 24th Bank for International Settlements Annual Conference will be held in Basel, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams moderates a session featuring keynote remarks from Professor Carmen Reinhart at the 24th Bank of International Settlements Annual Conference.

·       The Federal Reserve releases the results of its annual bank stress tests.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June)/ Bank Lending (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

·       USA Personal Income (May)/ PCE Price Index (May)/ Core PCE Price Index (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Canada GDP (April)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Paraguay Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Uruguay Current Account Q1

·       Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou leads a delegation of students on a tour of China.

·       Today is National Unity Day in Tajikistan, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Tokyo CPI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (May)/ Current Account Final Q1

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (May)

·       Singapore Export Prices (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ PPI (May)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

·       Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 18th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations begins its two-day annual council meeting in Warsaw, where policymakers and thought leaders will gather to discuss pressing global challenges

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (May)/ Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (May)

·       France Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (May)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/             Business Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)

·       Italy Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Industrial Sales (April)/       PPI (May)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

·       Euro Area           Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence Final (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Foreign Ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are scheduled to sign a peace agreement in the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The deal will result in Rwandan forces to withdraw from eastern Congo and the creation of a regional economic integration framework.

·       Today is Djibouti Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Ukraine.

·       Today is Armed Forces Day in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs a panel discussion at Petersberger Sommerdialog 2025 in Königswinter (Bonn), Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.