The Global Week Ahead

US – Russia Negotiations with Ukraine Continue, ASEAN Leaders to Hold Emergency Meeting on Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict, the US Puts Further Pressure on Venezuela, and Global Markets Are Quiet This Week

The world is quickly sliding into the Christmas week, hoping for peace and goodwill everywhere.  Two examples of that are the ongoing talks led by US Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who held yet another round of talks with Russian negotiators in Miami yesterday, seeking a Ukraine peace deal.  While the Trump Administration is suggesting that some small gains are being made, their Russian counterparts say nothing is moving.  And from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address and question-and-answer call-in session last week, Russia has no intention of ending this war until it has achieved total victory over Ukraine.  More talks are being scheduled in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile, ASEAN foreign ministers are gathering in Kuala Lumpur this week to see if they can de-escalate the growing conflict between Cambodia and Thailand.  Recall President Trump announced earlier this month that he had negotiated a ceasefire, but that has since broken down as the two sides blame each other for renewed fighting on the border.   At the time of this writing, reports indicate that the two sides have again agreed to meet to discuss a new ceasefire.

Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue to escalate, with the US Naval and Coast Guard forces seizing a third oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.  All three tankers are known to be flying false flags of operation and being part of a larger Venezuelan black market oil sales in contravention of sanctions on the country.  One interesting aspect of the US pressure campaign is how this is negatively impacting Cuba, which has been a strong supporter – politically and militarily – of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s regime.  As the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday, the Cuban regime’s economy is close to collapse, with widespread blackouts and an estimated 25 percent of the population having fled the country in recent months.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, with the Christmas holiday, there isn't much that markets are watching for in terms of data releases or central bank action.  The big events in the US will be the release of the delayed Q3 GDP, October durable goods orders, and November industrial production, all coming out on Tuesday.   Also out on Tuesday will be the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator for December.

In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will give a speech on Christmas Day on the Japanese economic outlook.   And in Europe, there are no significant data releases scheduled.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week.  We hope you have a very Merry Christmas!

Sunday, December 21, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian and US negotiators, led by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, meet in Miami to talk further about a peace deal in Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting an informal meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States in St. Petersburg through December 22.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

·       Today is São Tomé Day, a national holiday in the African nation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Economic Activity (October)

·       Canada PPI (November)/ Raw Materials Prices (November)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (October)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia hosts a special ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting on Thailand–Cambodia border tensions.

·       China's legislature will convene through Dec. 27 to consider 14 bills, including revisions to the Foreign Trade Law that would expand trade countermeasures.

· Japan’s Niigata Assembly meets to vote on restarting reactors at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear plant.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (November)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q3/   Inflation Rate (November)

·       India Infrastructure Output (November)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Current Account Q3/ Business Investment Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (November)/ Central Government Debt (November)

·       Greece Current Account (October)

·       Italy PPI (November)

·       Poland Business Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Unity Day in Zimbabwe, a national holiday.

·       The annual Africa and Diaspora Integration Summit convenes in Lagos, Nigeria.

·       The  International Conference on African Studies and Global Africa meets in Harare, Zimbabwe.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on non-proliferation. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security, including the rising tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Office of the US Trade Representative is expected to deliver a Section 301 investigative report on Chinese domination of the semiconductor industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (December)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (November)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (December)

·       Canada GDP (October)/ GDP Prel (November)/ BoC Summary of Deliberations

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Corporate Profits Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Redbook (December/20)/ Industrial Production (October and November)/ Capacity Utilization (October and November)/ Manufacturing Production (October and November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (December)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Shipments Index (December)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (December)/ Money Supply (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/19)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (October)/ Imports (October)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q3

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

·       Argentina Current Account Q3

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the birthday of Japanese Emperor Akihito, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Index (October)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (November)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (November)

·       Germany Import Prices (November)

·       Hungary Current Account Q3

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (November)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Federal Government is closed per an Executive Order by President Trump in celebration of Christmas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile PPI (November)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (November)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/19)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/20)/ 15- and 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/25)

·       Canada Budget Balance (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Economic Index (October)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/12)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (October)/ Industrial Production (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, December 25, 2025 

Global

·       It is Christmas Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to the Councilors of Keidanren.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/20)/ Housing Starts (November)/ Construction Orders (November)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (December)/ Capacity Utilization (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, December 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Federal Government is shut in honor of Christmas per an Executive Order issued by President Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (November)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q3

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/26)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (October)

·       Panama Current Account Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Vietnam Mobility Show will take place in Hanoi through December 28 with a focus on electric cars and motorbikes including hybrids. Companies are expected to offer discounts and test drives, while exhibitors will provide demonstrations on charging electric vehicles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (November)/ Jobs/applications ratio (November)/ Tokyo CPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Industrial Production Prel (November)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore           Industrial Production (November)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (December/12)/ Deposit Growth (December/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/19)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (November)/ Business Confidence (December)/ Real Wage Growth (October)/ Retail Sales (November)/ GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ivory Coast holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Myanmar holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Central African Republic holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Guinea holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Europe Steps Up Efforts For a Ukraine Peace Deal, Russian President Putin Holds His Annual Call-In Show, Chile Holds Its Presidential Election Runoff, and EU,  and Major Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

December 14 - 21, 2025

The Christmas and New Year holidays are just around the corner but the geopolitical calendar remains quite busy, especially with regard to all things Ukraine This week, European Union leaders will gather in Brussels for a European Council meeting to discuss the latest efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine, while also seeking a solution to Ukraine’s urgent funding needs in 2026 and beyond.  

That meeting is on December 18 & 19, and after a new, more urgent meeting on Monday in Berlin, called by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and featuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and numerous European heads of state, and potentially US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. 

In advance of Monday's meeting, President Zelensky has said he is ready to drop his demand for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe.  We will be watching for what Russian President Vladimir Putin might say a possible peace deal during his annual televised event  Friday.  That event blends his annual press conference with a nationwide call-in show where he supposedly takes unscripted questions from Russian citizens.

Also this week, Chile holds its presidential election runoff on Sunday.  Conservative candidate Jose Antonio Kast is expected to win against left-wing candidate Jeannette Jara, who is seeking to replace her political ally, current President Gabriel Boric.  While votes are still being counted, it appears Kast has won almost 60 percent of the vote.

Looking at the global economic and financial markets outlook, it is a big week for central bank meetings.  The European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Norway are all meeting to decide on interest rates.

Looking at major economic reports coming out this week, the US delayed jobs and inflation figures from November are finally being released.  Also out in the US this week will be October retail sales figures. And Canada releases consumer inflation numbers on Monday.

Looking to Asia, China will release retail sales and industrial production figures on Monday.  The Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey of business is out on Monday, and the November CPI figures are on Friday. 

And turning to Europe, the UK releases labor market figures on Tuesday and inflation numbers on Wednesday.  Germany releases the Ifo survey on Wednesday and consumer confidence numbers on Friday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara.  Kast is expected to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 15, 2025

Global

·       The OECD is expected to publish its G20 GDP Growth Report.

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: Leadership for Peace. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s new requirement that all H1B and H4 visa applicants make their social media profiles available for review goes into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will give a speech on the inflation outlook at Columbia University, New York, New York.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in an economic growth discussion before an event organized by the New Jersey Bankers Association.

·       Brazil BC-BR Economic Activity (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI Median (November)/ Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (December)/NAHB Housing Market Index (December)/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Colombia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong’s High Court is scheduled to deliver its verdict on the national security case against media executive Jimmy Lai.  He is facing the prospect of life in prison.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia’s head of financial stability, Andrea Brischetto, speaks at the Sydney Banking and Financial Stability Conference, which runs through December 16.

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (November)

·       Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q4/ Tertiary Industry Index (October)

·       China House Price Index (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ FDI (YTD) (November)

·       India WPI Food Index (November)/ WPI Fuel (November)/ WPI Manufacturing (November)/ WPI Inflation (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q3

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (November)/ GDP (November)

·       Sri Lanka Services & Manufacturing PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is convening a meeting in Berlin, Germany of European, NATO, and US leaders to discuss advancements to the Ukraine peace process.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine and the latest updates on the peace talks.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Brussels.

·       The EU-Angola Ministerial Meeting begins in Brussels.

·       The EU-Lebanon Association Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (November)

·       Romania Industrial Production (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts/ Producer & Import Prices (November)             

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (November)/ Auto Production (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Construction Output Q3

·       Serbia Building Permits (October)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September & October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ M3 Money Supply (November)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Global

·       The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) General Council meeting begins in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (on the 2334 resolution).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal event in Quebec.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Non-Farm Payrolls (October & November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Average Hourly Earnings (October & November)/ Government Payrolls (October & November)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (October & November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (November)/ Redbook (December/13)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Business Inventories (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/12)/ Building Permits (September & October)/ Housing Starts (September, October, & November)/ International Monetary Market (IMM) Date

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh celebrates Victory Day, marking independence from Pakistan in 1971.

·       Today is Kazakhstan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks at the AusPayNet Summit in Sydney.

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (November)/ Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update          / Credit Card Spending (November)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/16)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (December)     

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Singapore           Non-Oil Exports (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q4/ Cash Remittances (October)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is scheduled to vote on the compromise EU-Mercosur Agreement package.  However, France has thrown a last-minute wrench into the schedule, asking for a delay in the vote, which may sink the entire deal.

·       The 24th Accession Conference with Montenegro begins in Brussels.

·       The EU Environment Council meets in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Commission is likely to announce it will soften the bloc’s emissions targets after mounting pressure from automakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the 7th BdP biannual Forum on Regulatory & European affairs B20 in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at a green finance research event in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (October)/ Claimant Count Change (November)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ZEW Current Conditions (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (December)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (December)/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Italy Inflation Rate (November)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (November)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Bahrain National Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa celebrates the Day of Reconciliation, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on the Middle East (Yemen) followed by consultations – the Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on 2745 sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on SC subsidiary organs.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s FX Market Structure Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a discussion on the economic outlook before the Gwinnett County Chamber of Commerce.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Yale University CEO Summit, New York, New York.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/12)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Business Inventories (October)

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (October)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Semicon Japan begins in in Tokyo.  The even brings together more than 1,200 tech companies and organizations to show off the latest advancements in technology and AI.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q4/ Current Account Q3

·       Japan Machinery Orders (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (November)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (December)/ Lending Facility Rate (December)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Western Balkans Summit begins in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI Input (November)/ PPI Output (November)/ Retail Price Index (November)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (December)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (November)         

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (December)/ Ifo Current Conditions (December)/ Ifo Expectations (December)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Labour Cost Index Q3/ Wage Growth Q3

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (October)/ Residential Property Prices (October)

·       Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Belarus GDP (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 18, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (ONWAS), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will vote on draft resolutions to renew mandates of -UNDOF -MONUSCO – AUSSOM – CTE.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (December)/ Average Weekly Earnings (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Inflation Rate (November)/ CPI (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (December)/ Philly Fed Employment (December)/ Philly Fed New Orders (December)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (December/12)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (December)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/17)/ CB Leading Index (October & November)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (October)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (November)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Hainan Free Trade Port opens, making it the largest free trade zone in China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (December/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/13)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)        

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (November)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets in Brussels through December 19.  EU national leaders will discuss the situation in Ukraine, Gaza, the next Multiannual Financial Framework, and next steps on EU enlargement.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Meets to decide on Interest Rates; ECB Press Conference

·       The Bank of England meets to make an Interest Rate Decision and releases Meeting Minutes.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at DIW conference "Fiscal Policy, Debt, and Inequality" in Berlin, Germany.

·       UK British Retail Consortium December Consumer Sentiment Monitor

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (November)

·       France Business Confidence (December)/ Business Climate Indicator (December)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (November)/ Employment Growth (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (October)

·       Serbia Current Account (October)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/12)

·       Russia PPI (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (November)

Friday, December 19, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), Libya sanctions. This will be followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for the Department of Justice to release the files related to its investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, after Congress passed a bill compelling its release.

·       The US Congress is scheduled to break for its Christmas recess.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (December)/ Current Account (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q3/ Private Spending Q3

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Argentina           Consumer Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       USA Existing Home Sales (November)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/19)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Colombia Interest Rate Decision

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japan-Central Asia Summit begins in Tokyo.  It is the first-ever summit of leaders from Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan with Japanese leadership and is aimed at improving greater trade among all the nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets on Interest rates.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ ANZ Business Confidence (December)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (November

·       Australia Housing Credit (November)/ Private Sector Credit (November)/ Commodity Prices (December)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/12)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin to hold a televised event that blends his annual press conference with a nationwide call-in show.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion organized by the Aspen Institute Italia in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Economics Winter Workshop organized by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JAN/ PPI (November)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Great Britain Retail Sales (November)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (November)/ CBI Distributive Trades (December)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (October)

·       France PPI (November)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q3

·       Euro Area ECB Wage Tracker Q4/ Current Account (October)/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (December)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy Business Confidence (December)/ Current Account (October)/ Industrial Sales (October)/ Construction Output (October)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (December)/ PPI (November)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Slovakia Current Account (October)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (November)

Saturday, December 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Mercosur Summit of leaders from the South American trading bloc countries due to meet and possibly sign the Mercosur-EU trade deal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 21, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Cup of Nations international men’s football championship begins with a game between the host nation and Comoros.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s New National Security Strategy Sends Shock Waves, EU European Ministers Meet in Ukraine, and the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Other Central Banks Decide on Interest Rates this Week

December 7 - 14, 2025

The big geopolitical event this coming week is not what is going to happen but rather what happened last week: The release of the Trump Administration’s U.S. National Security Strategy, released this past Wednesday.  The document – which is proving to be a geopolitical earthquake - is highly critical of Europe, blaming the continent and “other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife…”

The strategy also calls for an end to the expansion of NATO and criticizes Europe for “unrealistic expectations” on how to resolve the Ukraine War and has many wondering what the future commitment of the US to NATO actually will be.  

From a financial market perspective, the strategy makes clear President Trump is determined to preserve and grow U.S. financial market domination globally, stating “The United States boasts the world’s leading financial and capital markets, which are pillars of American influence that afford policymakers significant leverage and tools to advance America’s national security priorities…”

Meanwhile – or in spite of the strategy – EU European Affairs Ministers will be gathering in Lviv, Ukraine this week to discuss Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU.  Efforts to bring Ukraine into the bloc have faltered but this meeting is seen as likely jump-starting the talks again.

The big events this coming week will all be taking place in central banks.   The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets this week and is expected to cut rates again.  Also meeting this week to discuss interest rates is the Reserve Bank of Canada, the Swiss Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Turkey’s Central Bank.

Looking at the overall economic and financial radar screen for the coming week, it is a fairly quiet week globally.   Starting in Asia, China reports on its trade balance on Monday and inflation (CPI and PPI) on Wednesday.  Japan releases its Economy Watchers survey for November on Monday.

Turning to Europe, the UK reports Industrial Production on Monday and October GDP on Friday.  Germany reports trade figures on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 8, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Industry and Tech Ministerial meeting takes place in Quebec, Canada.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Myanmar. This afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on OSCE Chairperson-in-Office.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit begins in New York and runs through Tuesday.  White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Auto Production & Exports (November)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Costa Rica          Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Uzbekistan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (October)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q3/ Bank Lending (November)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (November)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Markets and Industry) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will be receive a presentation on the ’Annual Overview Report on Simplification, Implementation and Enforcement’, followed by an exchange of views.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through December 9.  Ministers will discuss migration and asylum policy.

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul travels to China for discussion on steel and rare earth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give a guest lecture on "The transformation of money: technological disruption and the future of financial services" at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Industrial Production (October)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (October)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 9th Pan African Congress will be held in Lome, Togo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (November)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 25th NATO Parliamentary Assembly Transatlantic Forum takes place in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (December/06)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September and October)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/05)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is expected to begin this week.  The CEWC is expected to ratify the decisions of the 4th Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party held this past October. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates and holds a press conference.

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Private House Approvals (October)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (November)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at the ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)/ BOE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Ireland Construction PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Tanzania, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US government begins auctioning for oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets today and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell at 2:00 p.m.

·       The Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates followed by a press conference with Bank of Canada Head Tiff Macklin.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/05)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/

·       Brazil’s Central Bank meets to decide interest rates.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

China’s Premier Li Qiang holds the “1+10” Dialogue with the heads of major international economic organizations including President of the New Development Bank Dilma Rousseff, President of the World Bank Ajay Banga, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development Rebeca Grynspan, Director-General of the International Labour Organization Gilbert F. Houngbo, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Chair of the Financial Stability Board Andrew Bailey, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Jin Liqun, and Deputy Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Frantisek Ruzicka.

·       Australia’s new social media age ban for under-16s comes into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (October)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Japan PPI (November)

·       Australia RBA Chart Pack

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)

·       China Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/28)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (November)

·       Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs in Lviv, Ukraine through December 11.

·       UK  Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears before the Treasury Committee in Westminster to give evidence on her recent Budget speech.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a  keynote interview with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf on "What are the futures of the euro and the dollar as global currencies, and what are the opportunities for the digital euro?" at 9th Edition of The Global Boardroom: "Achieving growth in a disrupted world" in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery chairs a panel discussion at ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in panel discussion at the 20th High-level meeting on financial stability and regulatory and supervisory priorities jointly organized by AMF-BCBS-FSI in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area           ECB Machado Speech

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

·       Italy Industrial Production (October)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (November)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

·       Kuwait Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Interest Rate Decision

·       Qatar Interest Rate Decision

·       United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       South Africa Retail Sales (October)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on UNOCA/LRA. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC Metting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This will be followed by a TCC Meting on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

·       OPEC publishes its monthly oil production report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Falkland Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (October)/ Business Confidence (December)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/10)/ PPI (October and November)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (November)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (November)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ecadour Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q3

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q4/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/06)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/06)

·       Australia Employment Change (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss macroeconomic developments and members states’ draft budgetary plans.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through December 12.

·       Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the Covid-19 inquiry in London.

·       Portugal’s two main trade unions, the CGTP and UGT, call a nationwide general strike against the center-right government’s proposal to ease dismissals, expand outsourcing and cut certain compassionate leave entitlements, including bereavement leave for miscarriages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the Arab Monetary Fund, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Institute high-level meeting in Dubai.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (November)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)/ Auto Production (November)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (October)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area           ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (October)/ Mining Production (October)/ Building Permits (October)/         Manufacturing Production (October)  

Friday, December 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to vote on 2713 Sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti sanctions, as well as consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center Roundtable Series Program.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation before hybrid 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (October)

·       USA Fed Paulson Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/12)

·       Canada Building Permits (October)/ Capacity Utilization Q3/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)/ Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import and Export Prices (November)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (November)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (November)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       India Inflation Rate (November)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/28)/ Deposit Growth (November/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)

·       China Vehicle Sales (November)/ New Yuan Loans (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (November)/ Total Social Financing (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss Customs reform and the single currency package as well as imports of small parcels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (November)/ Current Account (October)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Current Account (October)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Construction Output (October)/ GDP (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)           

·       Hungary Construction Output (October)/ Industrial Production (October)          

·       France Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Jamahuri Day in Kenya, otherwise known as Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q4/ SACCI Business Confidence (October and November)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, December 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara.  Kast is expected to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

EU Defense Ministers and NATO Foreign Ministers Meet on Ukraine Peace Talks, Putin Goes to India, Canadian Prime Minister Carney May Come to Washington,  and Markets Brace for a Data-Heavy Week

November 30 - December 7, 2025

Efforts to reach a peace deal with Russia over their war against Ukraine will dominate the geopolitical agenda this week.  EU Defense Ministers will gather in Brussels on Monday to talk about President Trump’s amended peace plan – this comes after Ukrainian officials met with US officials in Miami, Florida, to try to hammer out final but critical aspects of a plan constructed by the US, Ukraine, and EU following Trump’s initial 28-point plan two weeks ago.

While EU defense ministers are expected to focus on how to further support Ukraine’s military defense,  NATO foreign ministers will gather in Brussels on Wednesday, where the focus will again be on the ongoing negotiations.  However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to skip the meeting, sending Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau in his place.  Rubio’s absence is seen as unusual, especially with the tight timelines of the negotiations with Russia. No formal reason has been given.

While all this is going on, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be traveling to India for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to shore up relations between the two nations.  The visit comes following President Trump’s demands for India to stop buying Russian oil, which is being used to finance the war in Ukraine.  Putin describes the planned summit as one that underscores the “privileged strategic partnership” between the two countries.   It also shows how dependent Russia is now on Indian oil purchases to finance the war.

Finally, there appears to be a good chance Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will come to Washington, DC, this week for talks with President Trump over the ongoing trade dispute between the two countries.  Technically, Carney would be coming for the FIFA World Cup team drawing announcement for the upcoming World Cu,p which is being played in Canada, the US, and Mexico.  But talks on the sidelines with Trump are expected.

Looking at the global economic and finance radar screen this week, it is going to be a heavy week of economic and financial reporting. 

In the US, the University of Michigan survey for December is out on Friday, while the ISM indices for manufacturing are out on Monday and services on Wednesday.  Markets will also see delayed September indicators for industrial production out on Wednesday.   The Federal Reserve Board has gone into its “quiet period” before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on interest rates on December 10th.  But Fed Chair Jay Powell will be giving short remarks at a commemorative event for former Secretary of State George Shultz, while Vice Chair Michelle Bowman will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee this week on regulatory issues.

Turning to Europe, CPIs will be out for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Sweden.  Markets will be watching closely for any uptick in inflation.

In Asia this week, China releases its official PMIs on Sunday, and non-official PMIs are out on Wednesday.  And Japan’s Ministry of Finance’s Q3 Financial Statements Statistics are out on Sunday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Global

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       OPEC+ meets to discuss market conditions and production goals.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US will host Ukrainian officials in Miami, Florida to discuss next steps in the proposed Ukraine-Russia Peace Plan.

·       Honduras holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kyrgyzstan holds parliamentary elections.

·       The  Conference of the parties of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species takes place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Australia Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland holds a referendum on environmental responsibility.

·       Transnistria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Scotland celebrates St. Andrew’s Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold a party congress in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 1, 2025

Global

·       The U.S. assumes the presidency if the G20 from South Africa.

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere.  Winter is officially here.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       St. Lucia holds parliamentary elections.

·       In the US, Cyber Monday is held with may e-retailers running special promotions.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay takes part in an online panel discussion as part of the Hoover Institution George P Shultz Memorial Lecture Series.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (November)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (November)/ Fed Chair Powell Speech/ Construction Spending (September & October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to Moscow, Russia for 20th round of China-Russia strategic security consultation.

·       Today is Kazakhstan’s First President’s Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (October), Anna Breman becomes Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor, succeeding Christian Hawkesby who replaced Adrian Orr in March.

·       Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a meeting with business leaders in Nagoya, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November)/ Company Gross Profits Q3/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (November)/ Business Inventories Q3/ Commodity Prices (November)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (November)      

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October) 

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (October)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU defense ministers meet in Brussels. The meeting, which will exclusively focus on Ukraine, will be chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas.

·       Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer delivers the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet speech in London. This is traditionally a speech about foreign policy.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) meets in Brussels.

·       German-Polish government consultations are to be held with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Prime Minister Donald Tusk meeting in Berlin.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing in Brussels.

·       The EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council meets in Brussels.

·       Today is Portugal Independence Day, national holiday.

·       Today is Romania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)             

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)          

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (October)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)            

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (October)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (October)/ M4 Money Supply (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Ukraine Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV begins a two-day apostolic visit, including prayers at the tomb of Saint Charbel Makluf at the Monastery of Saint Maroun.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Central African Republic Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November)

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Global

·       The OECD publishes its latest Global Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee,

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (November)

·       USA Redbook (November/29)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/28)/ Total Vehicle Sales (November)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Laos National Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Export & Import Prices Q3/ Terms of Trade Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/02)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (November)

·       Japan Monetary Base/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Australia Building Permits (October)/ Current Account Q3

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs (Health) Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The EU-Armenia Partnership Council meets in Brussels.

·       Ukraine’s parliament will debate the 2026 draft budget, which the country must adopt in line with the IMF’s demands.

·       French unions are calling for nationwide strikes calling for higher pay and better benefits.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England publishes the Bank Capital Stress Test of major lenders and its half-yearly Financial Stability Report into risks facing Britain’s financial system.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a  panel discussion at first Data Day "Burden Reduction in the Digitalization Era" organized by European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA).

·       The FT Global Banking Summit 2025 begins in London, running until Thursday.

·       Bank of England director prudential policy Philip Evans speaks at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association trading book capital conference on the implementation of Basel III.

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (November)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (November)           

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       France Budget Balance (October)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q3

·       Spain Unemployment Change (November)/ New Car Sales (November)

·       Euro Area           ECB Buch Speech

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (October)/ PPI (October)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ CPI (November)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia to announce its 2026 budget, followed by a press conference with Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan.

·       Today is UAE National Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The West Africa Energy Cooperation Summit will convene in Accra, Ghana through December 3. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Total New Vehicle Sales (November)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The New York Times DealBook Summit begins in New York. Among those speaking will be Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent , California Governor Gavin Newsom,  Dario Amodei, the C.E.O. and co-founder of Anthropic; Brian Armstrong, the C.E.O. of Coinbase; Mary Barra, the chair and C.E.O. of General Motors;  Larry Fink, the chairman and C.E.O. of BlackRock; Alex Karp, the C.E.O. and co-founder of Palantir; and Erika Kirk, the C.E.O. and chair of Turning Point USA.

·       Chilean presidential candidates Jeannette Jara and Jose Antonio Kast will participate in a debate ahead of the December 14 presidential runoff. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (September)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/28)/ ADP Employment Change (November)/ Import & Export Prices (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)/ ISM Services PMI (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q3/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day tour of China with a scheduled meeting with his host, Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Beijing. The two leaders are expected to discuss bilateral ties as well as global affairs.

·       The FT Live Commodities Asia Summit begins in Marina Bay, Singapore, and online. The theme of the two-day gathering is how global fragmentation is reshaping commodity markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Consumption Q3

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)   

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (November)

·       China RatingDog Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO foreign ministers’ meeting begins at the military alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, chaired by Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio is planning on not attending.

·       German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier begins a state visit to the United Kingdom.

·       The European Commission will unveil the "Resource EU" economic security doctrine on how to secure rare earth and critical minerals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann is a panelist at the GIC College of Central Bankers Symposium in New York.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech at the 15th Workshop on Exchange Rates jointly organized by Banca d’ Italia, Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and National Bank of Belgium in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Russia S&P Composite & Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ Real Wage Growth (September)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Romania PPI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (October)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

·       Jordan PPI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt holds the 2nd round of the House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (November)/ Business Confidence Q4

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3

Thursday, December 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

·       Brazil GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/29)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (November/22)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/280/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/03)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (November)

·       Colombia Exports (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a two-day state visit to India.  The visit is significant as it comes following U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of punitive tariffs on India in August for purchasing Russian oil. The leaders are expected to "exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual interest," according to a statement issued by India's Ministry of External Affairs on Friday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/29)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/29)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Household Spending (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meets in Brussels through December 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a policy panel  discussing "Priorities and challenges for fiscal policies in Europe" at ECB-IMF conference on fiscal policy and EMU governance in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane chairs a  keynote lecture by George-Marios Angeletos at ECB-IMF conference on fiscal policy and EMU governance in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Cinco Días Business Innovation Awards ceremony in Madrid, Spain.

·       The Bank of England publishes monthly Decision Maker Panel data, from a survey of chief financial officers from small, medium and large businesses.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues conference in Paris, France.

·       Hungary Retail Sales (October)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (October)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (November)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (November)

·       Ireland Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GNP Q3

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/28)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The East African Community will hold its fifth ordinary summit of heads of states in Nairobi, Kenya through December 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q3

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (October)

Friday, December 5, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) Cities and Regions Summit begins in Nairobi, Kenya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will attend the final draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup to determine the groups for next summer’s 48-team competition being held in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

·       Brazil PPI (October)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Average Hourly Wages (November)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA Personal Income & Spending (September)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/05)/ Consumer Credit Change (October)/ Used Car Prices (November)/ Factory Orders (September & October)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (November)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (December)/ Household Spending (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Economic Index (October)  

·       South Korea Current Account (October)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/28)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (October)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a panel on "Global Imbalances and the International Monetary Order" at CEPR Paris Symposium in Paris, France.

·       Germany Factory Orders (October)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (November)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (October)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Spain Industrial Production (October)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (October)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Serbia PPI (November)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP (October)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, December 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spain celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Finland's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Doha Forum begins and runs through December 7.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong holds a Legislative Council election, the second since Chinese authorities overhauled the system and imposed a strict national security law on the special administrative region. Only a small fraction of seats are directly elected, and all candidates are strictly vetted to ensure loyalty to Beijing. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz travels to Israel to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in South Africa, Trump Pushes Ukraine for a Decision on His Peace Deal, Washington Goes Quiet for Thanksgiving, But Will Publish Delayed Economic Data As EU CPIs Come Out

November 23 - 30, 2025

It is hard to believe we are already heading into Thanksgiving here in the US.   It will be a relatively quiet week, not only in the US (Congress is out again this week), but also internationally. 

But there are several important geopolitical events we are watching closely this week.  First, the G20 is meeting this weekend in South Africa.  The US decided to skip the entire meeting and not send any representatives – the first time the US has ever boycotted the G20.   The absence of the US limited the Summit's ability to achieve significant outcomes.   Interestingly, next year’s G20 meeting will be hosted by the US.

Also this week, President Trump’s controversial 28-point peace plan to end the Ukraine-Russia War is facing a tight deadline as Trump has demanded Ukraine give their decision on whether to accept it or not by Thursday.   The plan emerged following meetings between Russian and US officials (no EU officials were involved).  So far, there has been strong pushback from European leaders to Trump’s plan.  And Trump is expected to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday or Tuesday to hear his concerns.  So far, Trump has strongly criticized the European and Ukrainian arguments against his plan.

The plan, as laid out by Trump Special Envoy Steve Sitkoff, would require Ukraine to give up territory that Russia has not occupied.  We are watching for a significantly different counter-proposal to be presented by European leaders before Thursday. 

Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Venezuela continued to rise.  Several airlines have now halted flights to the country after heightened US military activity made such flights too risky.  As to what the Trump Administration is planning is still unclear.  Reports on Sunday suggest the US is preparing a massive media campaign (including airdrops of leaflets) urging Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro to leave the country immediately.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets are awaiting the release of delayed US economic reports (including September retail sales and durable goods orders). The reports were delayed due to the federal government shutdown. 

Also this week, the US Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday.  Then the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday.  The federal government and markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday will be an extremely quiet day for markets.  There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  And in Canada, we will see Q3 GDP numbers.

In Europe, Germany, France, and Italy will release their November CPIs on Friday.   Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Monday, and consumer confidence is out on Tuesday (as is France’s).   In the UK, the Chancellor, Christine Reeves, presents the Autumn Budget to Parliament.  There will be several European Central Bank (ECB) Board speeches this week, including one by ECB President Christine Lagarde.   Plus, the ECB releases minutes from its last meeting.

In Asia,  Japan publishes the November Tokyo CP this week, while Australia releases its October CPI. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week – we hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Global

·       The G20, being held in South Africa, concludes.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina holds early presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (September)               

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 24, 2025

Global

·        The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Gaza/Lebanon), followed by consultations.

·       The UN’s 14th Forum on Business and Human Rights begins in Geneva and online. The theme is accelerating action on business and human rights amid crises and transformation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

·       The U.S. designation of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization is due to take effect.

·       Canada's Newfoundland and Labrador province will hold a general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile PPI (October)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September & October)

·       Paraguay PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese financial markets and government are closed for the Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (October)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-African Union Summit takes place in Luanda, Angola through November 25.  On the sidelines of the Summit, the EU-Africa Business Forum takes place.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss EU-US and EU-China trade relations, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick scheduled to participate.

·       The Chair of the BBC, Dr Samir Shah, and Robbie Gibb, a non-executive member of the BBC board, face questions from Britain’s Member of Parliament on the Culture, Media and Sport Committee about editorial standards at the national broadcaster, following the selective editing of a Donald Trump speech by news program Panorama, which sparked a $1bn defamation threat from the US president and resulted in the resignations of the BBC director-general Tim Davie and BBC news chief Deborah Turness.

·       The Confederation of British Industry's annual meeting takes place in London.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases their report “Stablecoins on the rise: still small in the euro area, but spillover risks loom.”

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the  BratislavAI Forum on Artificial Intelligence and Education as part of OECD high-level event: 25th anniversary of "Better Policies for Better Lives" in Bratislava, Slovakia.

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a presentation at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ECB-NGFS workshop “Vanishing Nature, Rising Risk: a Central Banking and Supervisory Lens on Ecosystem Degradation” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (November)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (October)/ Employment Growth (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 25, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Libya. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Suriname Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)/ Current Account Q3

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Redbook (November/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September)/ House Price Index (September)/ Pending Home Sales (October)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (November)/ Money Supply (October)/ Business Inventories (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/21)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank hosts the 14th Asia Smart Cities Conference in Yokohama, Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Index (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Chile Joint Council meets in Brussels.

·       Today is the National Day of Bosnia & Herzegovina, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases its report “A Systemic risks in linkages between banks and the non-bank financial sector.”

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank of Ireland's Financial System Conference 2025 in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at the Climate Finance Week Ireland 2025 "Supervising Nature Risk: Regulation and Transition" organized by the United Nations Development Programme in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (October)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       France Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Spain PPI (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q3

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Global

·       The OECD launches its Environmental Outlook report, assessing efforts to tackle the “triple planetary crisis” of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (October)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (November)

·       USA Beige Book is published/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/21)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (November/15)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Chicago PMI (November)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/21)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (November/28)// Building Permits (September & October)/ Durable Goods Orders (October)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (September & October)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (September & October)/ Wholesale Inventories (September & October)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ New Home Sales (September & October)/ PCE Price Index (September & October)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (October)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (October)/ CPI (October)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (October)/ RBA Smith Speech

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Economic Index (September)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/14)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review is released.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an acceptance speech at the Transatlantikpreis ceremony 2025 at Steuben-Schurz-Gesellschaft in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the "Macro Outlook" session at conference on Global Market Insights: Navigating the new geopolitical environment organized by Santander CIB in Paris, France.

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2025

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 27, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations is closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Thanksgiving, a national holiday.  The Federal government and financial markets are closed.

·       St. Vincent and the Grenadines holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (November)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

·       Canada Current Account Q3/ Average Weekly Earnings (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to local leaders in Oita, Japan.

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q3/ ANZ Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q3/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q3/ Private Capital Expenditure Q3

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (October)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Malaysia PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Education and Youth) meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks  at the 24th CEDE Congress of Executives in Zaragoza, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates on a panel discussion at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates and speaks at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks at the Goodbody 18th annual conference in Ireland.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Economic Confidence Index (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)/                Economic Sentiment (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Industrial Sentiment (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (November)/ Services Sentiment (November)/ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Industrial Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (October)

·       Spain Business Confidence (November)

·       Russia GDP (September & October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV begins a historic visit to Turkey and Lebanon through December 2.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (October)

Friday, November 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Black Friday, the start of the US Christmas season holiday shopping rush.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October)/ Nominal Budget Balance (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Net Payrolls (October)

·       Chile Copper Production (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Fiscal Balance (October)

·       Canada GDP (September & October)/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Cement Production (October)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA Fed Balance Sheet (November/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Conference (November)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (October)/ Jobs/applications ratio (October)/ Tokyo CPI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/22)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Construction Orders (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Export Prices (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (October)/ Government Budget Value (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/14)/ Deposit Growth (November/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Culture and Sport) meets in Brussels.

·       The Institute for International Finance holds its European Banking Regulation & Supervision Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Today is Albania's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives keynote remarks at the 12th annual IIF Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Car Production (October)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (November)

·       Germany Retail Sales (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployed Change & Persons (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (November)/ Bavaria CPI (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (November)/ Hesse CPI (November)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (November)/ Saxony CPI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)/ Financial Stability Report

·       Hungary PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ KOF Leading Indicators (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (October)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)/ Jobseekers Total (October)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Current Account (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Greece Retail Sales (September)/ PPI (October)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Zimbabwe    Inflation Rate (November)

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, November 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Honduras General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Global

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       OPEC+ meet to discuss market conditions and production goals.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Honduras holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kyrgyzstan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Australia Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland holds a referendum on environmental responsibility.

·       Transnistria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Scotland celebrates St. Andrew’s Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S. Supreme Court Reviews IEEPA, Trump Hosts the C5+1, The Coalition of the Willing meets in Spain, and Markets Look for Data as the U.S. Government Goes into Week 6 Being Shut Down

November 2 - 9, 2025

In global markets, it is going to be another momentous week as politics collide with economic and financial markets.  The U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments over the legality of President Trump’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) – the basis for which the President launched global tariffs on “Liberation Day.”   While a final decision is unlikely for several months, markets will likely get a sense of which way the court is leaning based on the questions and comments from the bench during the hearing.   To add to the drama, President Trump has said he is likely to attend the hearing in person—a historic move, as no sitting President has ever attended arguments before the Supreme Court in the Court’s 235-year history.

Markets are also nervously watching as tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela continue to rise.  There were reports this past week that the Trump Administration has decided to attack military sites in Venezuela, as well as drug cartel operational sites.  President Trump has denied the reports.  However, US Naval assets continue to grow in the region as an aircraft carrier group arrives to bolster the US presence.

Also this week, President Trump will host the C5+5 Summit, bringing together the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at the White House.  The meeting is seen as a message to Moscow of the U.S.’s intention to become more engaged in the region.  And it is also another move by the U.S. to secure greater access to critical minerals, as well as uranium (of which more than 40 percent of global uranium mining comes from).  Also, this week, President Trump will host the Hungarian Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, Spain will host a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing – 35 countries dedicated to assisting Ukraine in defeating Russia.  The meeting will focus on ways to raise pressure on Russia to come to the negotiating table (as opposed to simply finding new ways of supplying military aid to Ukraine).

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the Bank of England will decide on interest rates this week while the Bank of Japan releases minutes from their last interest rate meeting.  

In the U.S., markets will continue to struggle to gather economic data as the U.S. federal government goes into its sixth week of shutdown (and with little chance of an agreement being hammered out in the near term).  However, the ISM indices are being published this week – the manufacturing on Monday and the services on Wednesday.  And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out on Friday. 

In Europe, Germany and France will release trade balance figures this week.  And aside from the Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank and the Norges Bank meet on interest rates. Plus, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Tuesday on the economic outlook.

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates on Tuesday, and Japan releases wage data on Wednesday. 

Also, this week will be another big earnings week, particularly for defense, tech, and pharmaceutical companies, including Palantir, AMD, Qualcomm, ConocoPhillips, BP, Saudi Aramco, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk, Rheinmetall, and Leonardo.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, November 2, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Daylight Savings Time ends in the US.

·       Mexico celebrates the Day of the Dead Parade in Mexico City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)         

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 3, 2025

Global

·       The COP30 UN Climate Change Conference begins in Belem, Brazil through November 21.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly participates in a moderated conversation at the Forum Club of the Palm Beach.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem attends a fireside chat in Toronto at the Logic Summit.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (September)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)   

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ 2025- 26 Federal Budget released

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total Household Debt Q3/ Fed Daly Speech/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Construction Spending (August and September)/ Total Vehicle Sales (October)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will hold its annual financial summit – the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit – until Wednesday. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is expected to address the main summit on Tuesday. BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Citadel’s Ken Griffin will sit for fireside chats.

·       The U.S. and South Korean defense ministers will hold their first joint visit in eight years to the Joint Security Area in the Korean Demilitarized Zone.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       New Zealand Building Permits (September)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Household Spending (September)/ Private House Approvals (September)/ Commodity Prices (October)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       China Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers through November 4 in Brussels.

·       The NATO Operations Research & Analysis Conference takes place in Berlin, Germany.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits China for talks with his counterpart and Xi Jinping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Technological University Dublin in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá gives introductory remarks at Convención anual 2025 de la Asociación de Mercados Financieros 

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (October)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)/ PPI (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/24)         

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)       

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ New Car Sales (October)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       China's Vice President Han Zheng to visit Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

Global

·       The UN’s Second World Summit for Social Development will be held from 4 – 6 November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New Jersey and Virginia will hold closely watched gubernatorial elections.  And New York will elect a new mayor.

·       Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presents the annual federal budget to the House of Commons in Ottawa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision ice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on bank supervision and monetary policy at the 2025 Santander International Banking Conference, Madrid, Spain.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (October)/ Industrial Production (September)

·       USA Redbook (November/01)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/31)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August & September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (September)/ Factory Orders (August & September)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (August & September)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Exports (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Management Dialogue, a forum organized by Nikkei and Swiss business school IMD, will take place in Tokyo over two days, bringing together business leaders including Foxconn Chairman and CEO Young Liu and Johnson & Johnson Chairman and CEO Joaquin Duato.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (October)

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)          

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       India RBI Auction

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environment Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss European climate law and the climate target 2040.  They will also determine contribution levels for the UNFCCC.

·       Senior political directors from roughly 35 countries in the so-called Coalition of the Willing are set to meet Nov. 4 in Madrid to coordinate assistance for Ukraine. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at the Bulgarian National Bank conference "On the Doorstep of the Eurozone" in Sofia, Bulgaria.  Later, she participates in a press convergence during the Bulgarian National Bank Conference.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá speaks at Santander International Banking Conference in Madrid.

·       ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on Europe in Berlin, followed by discussion with Economist Editor-in-Chief Zanny Minton Beddoes.

·       Romania PPI (September)

·       France Budget Balance (September)/ New Car Registrations (October)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (October)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/     Balance of Trade (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court hears arguments on the legality of about 60% of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

·       President Trump will attend a two-day America Business Forum in Miami, whose attendees will include business, government, sports and entertainment figures.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (August)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/31)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/31)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ ISM Services PMI (October)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/31)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Caroly Rogers will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance.

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (October)

·       Colombia PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Shanghai will host the 8th annual China International Import Expo (CIIE), featuring German pharmaceutical maker Bayer and American fashion brand Coach among 4,100 companies from 155 countries.

·       The Pitcairn Islands hold mayoral and island council elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Employment Change Q3/ Unemployment Rate Q3/ Labour Costs Index Q3/ Participation Rate Q3/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Index (October)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (October)

·       China Rating Dog Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q3

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Director of Insurance Supervision Shoib Khan gives a speech at MarketforceLive Insurance Innovators Summit 2025.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Germany Factory Orders (September)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       France Industrial Production (September)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (October)/ BoE Khan Speech/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Serbia PPI (October)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (October)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (October)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (October)

Thursday, November 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. President Donald Trump will host the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Washington for the second C5+1 summit, his first direct engagement with the region's heads of state in a multilateral format.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christoper Waller gives a speech on central banking and the future of payments at the Bank of Canada 2025 Annual Economic Conference in Ottawa, Canada.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr participates in virtual “Community Development" discussion hosted by Fed Communities.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives lecture on “The Natural Rate of Interest" before event organized by the Goethe University Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before an Economic Club of New York webinar.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Fixed Income Analysts Society, Inc.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Consumer Finance Institute" before the “New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets Conference 2025" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/31)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/05)/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October)/ Wholesale Inventories (August and September)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (October)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (October)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s eastern state of Bihar holds the first phase of elections, a contest seen as a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (September)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (September)/ Overtime Pay (September)/ Reuters Tankan Index (November)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Sixth Partnership for Transatlantic Energy Cooperation (P-TEC) takes place through November 7th in Athens, Greece.  The meeting brings together government officials and industry leaders to discuss energy security and affordability, infrastructure projects, and investment opportunities.

·       The UK Parliament goes into recess until November 11.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank holds the second day of their conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at 26th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference "The Evolving Landscape of Global Trade and Financial Integration" organized by the International Monetary Fund in Washington D.C,

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives: opening remarks at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a webinar "Euro area current policy challenges" organized by Natixis CIB Research.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a panel discussion at 20 Jahre Finanzstabilitätsbericht in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Germany Industrial Production (September)/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

·       Romania Retail Sales (September)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (September)

·       Spain Industrial Production (September)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Euro Area  HCOB Construction PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)/ ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (October)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (October)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ BoE Monetary Policy Report

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/31)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (October)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, November 7, 2025

Global

·       G20 Finance and Health Ministers will hold a virtual meeting to discuss mobilizing financing mechanisms to combat health challenges globally.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán meets Donald Trump at the White House to discuss a path to another US-Russia meeting and to seek an exemption from US energy sanctions.

·       U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to announce major changes to how the Pentagon acquires and transfers weapons to foreign countries.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits to discuss the repatriation of ancient Mexican codices.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on AI and the Economy at the Euro20+, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech on Stablecoins and Monetary Policy at the BCVC Summit 2025, New York, N.Y.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2025 organized by the European Central Bank.

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (September)/ Non-Farm Payrolls (September and October)/ Unemployment Rate (September and October)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September and October)/ Participation Rate (September and October)/ Government Payrolls (September and October)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September and October)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (September and October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September and October)/ Used Car Prices (September and October)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Brazil PPI (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (October)/ Auto Exports & Production (October)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (October)/ Employment Change (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (October)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (October)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/01)        

·       Philippines Industrial Production (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (September)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Singapore           Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/31)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       New Lady Mayor of the City of London Dame Susan Langley takes office at the Silent Ceremony at Guildhall, becoming the City’s 697th mayor and the first to use the title Lady Mayor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at the Bundesbank Euro20+ event in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England’s BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks in the national Monetary Policy Committee agency briefing.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta will participate in a panel at the European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Car Registrations (October)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (October)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (October)       

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Treasury Cash Balance (October)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (September)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Vehicle Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Global

·       In Bolivia, Rodrigo Paz assumes the presidency, marking a political shift to the right after more than two decades of rule by the Movement for Socialism party.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Cambodia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-CELA (Community of Latin America and Caribbean States) Summit begins in Santa Marta, Colombia and runs through November 10.  Hosted by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, the summit will focus trade, investment, and green and digital transition as well as fighting organized crime and human trafficking.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Travels to Asia for the APEC Leaders Meeting and the ASEAN Summit, Trump Will Meet with Japan’s PM Takaichi and China’s Xi Seeking Trade Deals, and it is a Big Week for US, EU, Japan, and Canada Central Banks

October 26 - November 2, 2025

Geopolitics and global markets will be keenly focused on Asia this week.  President Donald Trump travels to Malaysia this weekend at attend the APEC Leaders meeting.  While there, the President is presiding over the signing of a peace deal he helped broker between Cambodia and Thailand and then working to hammer out trade deals with Malaysia, Vietnam, as well Cambodia and Thailand. 

From there, President Trump travels to Japan – his fourth presidential trip there – to meet with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.  Again, the President is hoping to hammer out a framework for a trade deal.  The major sticking point between the US and Japan is whether Prime Minister Takaichi will hold by a pledge her predecessor made of giving $550 billion to the US to fund unspecified projects.

From there, Trump travels to Gyeongju, South Korea for the ASEAN Leaders Summit and a much-anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese officials to iron out a “framework” of an agreement (but not an overarching deal) in advance of the Trump-Xi meeting. 

Bessent reportedly finalized a deal on TikTok and may have gotten an extension of rare earth sales to the US following China’s recent clampdown on sales globally.

Finally, we would note Trump is expected to meet with South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit to work further on a US-South Korea trade deal.

Here in Washington, the federal government shutdown is going into its 5th week.  We would note that this past Friday, air traffic controllers, TSA Agents, and other key government workers experienced their first full paycheck not arriving.  As we get closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, we believe pressure will grow on Congress to hammer out some sort of deal to reopen the government.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, this is going to be a big week for central banks.  The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meet this week on interest rates.  Markets are watching and listening not only for any rate moves but for assessments on how the trade wars might be impacting the longer-term inflation outlook globally.

This week is also a big week for corporate earnings with Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Airbus, Boeing and number of large cap companies reporting.

With the federal government shutdown still in place, there will not be much other major economic reports in the US (Q3 GDP was scheduled to be reported).  We will get the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report on Tuesday.

In Europe, we will get October CPIs and Q3 GDP reports from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, along with the PCE report, plus consumer confidence reports from Germany and Italy and the greater Eurozone on Thursday.

In Asia, China releases October PMIs on Friday along with September retail sales.   Japan releases the Tokyo CPI on Thursday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia. Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN’s 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summertime – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 27, 2025 

Global

·       Vietnam hosts the United Nations’ global convention on cybercrime.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will make an official visit to Japan through Wednesday. While there, he will hold an official summit with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where Trump hopes to wrap up a US-Japan trade deal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)   

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Beijing Financial Forum begins and runs through Friday. More than 400 delegates from 30 countries are expected to attend. People's Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng and top securities regulator Wu Qing are reportedly due to speak.

·       North Korea's top diplomat Choe Son Hui visits Moscow for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)/ FDI (YTD) (September)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock holds a fireside chat at the ABE annual dinner in Sydney, Australia.

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet in Luxembourg.

·       NATO conducts annual nuclear exercise Steadfast Noon.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at a joint ECB and EUI banking governance high-level seminar "Board of the Future" in Florence, Italy.  ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen also will speak.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ Loans to Companies (September)/ Loans to Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)/ ECB Tuominen Speech

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (October)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (September)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)/ BoE Oakes Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Future Investment Initiative, an annual investment event organized by the FII Institute, a non-profit organization run by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, begins in Riyadh.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates today and Wednesday.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/24)/ House Price Index (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)         

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula President von der Leyen will travel to Stockholm to participate in a meeting with the Nordic Leaders and the SG of the Nordic Council of Ministers.  She will meet with Andreas Norlén, Speaker of the Riksdag and then deliver a speech at the 77th session of the Nordic Council.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (September)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Tanzania holds general elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe    Inflation Rate (October)

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The suspension of increased US tariffs on Mexico ends.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference in the afternoon.

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/24)/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/24)/ Decision/Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (September)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Colombia Business Confidence (September)

·       EARNINGS: Boeing, Alphabet, Meta

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-Venezuela Business Forum takes place in Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ US President Trump-China President Xi Meeting

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3  

·       Malaysia PPI (September)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore     Import Prices (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

·       India M3 Money Supply (October/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Netherlands holds snap parliamentary elections following the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition government in June.

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz travels to Ankara, Turkey for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets at the Banca d’Italia in Florence through Thursday, October 30.

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals (September)/ Mortgage Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

·       Italy PPI (September)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       EARNINGS: Deutsche Bank, Adidas, UBS, BASF, Mercedes-Benz, Airbus, TotalEnergies, AB InBev, Stellantis, Lufthansa, Volkswagen

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), and another draft resolution on Colombia.

· The International Energy Agency publishes an annual World Energy Outlook on global energy prospects.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC CEO Summit.  Trump hopes to hammer out a partial trade deal with China, especially around rare earth export controls China has recently instituted.

·       The US’ 25% tariffs on heavy trucks enters into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a pre-recorded speech at the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Outreach Meeting.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Net Payrolls (September)

·       Chile Copper Production (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gives welcoming remarks at The Evolving Landscape of Bank Funding conference hosted by the Dallas Fed.

·       USA EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/29)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September & October)/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3  

·       EARNINGS: Amazon, Apple

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense chiefs from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations will meet in Kuala Lumpur through Nov. 2 for the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting. The gathering comes as the bloc expands its cooperation framework, with Germany and Turkey joining the ADMM observer program for the 2024-2027 term.

·       The Japan Mobility Show, formerly known as the Tokyo Motor Show, will be held through Nov. 9 at Tokyo Big Sight. The theme of this year's event is: "A unique opportunity to explore mobility's future." A record number of over 500 companies and organizations will participate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan begins a two-day board meeting on the economy and interest rates.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/25)/ Stock Investment by

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

·       Australia Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3

·       Philippines Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Thailand Industrial Production (September)

·       EARNINGS: Panasonic, Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways, Apple, Samsung Electronics

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of meetings in Florence and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference hosted by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 4:15 p.m. CET.

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Consumer Confidence (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

·       Germany Unemployed Persons (October)/ Unemployment Change (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Sales (August)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Russia GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (September)

·       Zambia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 31, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Bosnia and Herzegovina, followed by a debate. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

·       G7 energy and Environment Ministers meet in Canada.

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies holds its Manama Dialogue Conference.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       USA Fed Logan Speech/ Chicago PMI (October)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/31)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ PCE Price Index (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (October)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

·       Argentina     Tax Revenue (October)

·       EARNINGS: Chevron, ExxonMobil, T. Rowe Price, Weyerhaeuser, Canadian National Railway, Ingersoll Rand, AbbVie, Aon

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Leaders Meeting takes place in South Korea.  Leaders of the 21-member organization are expected to meet over two days.  President Trump is expected to hold talks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. South Korea is also hoping to use the meeting to promote foreign investment.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)           

·       South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Tokyo Core CPI (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

·       Australia PPI Q3/ Housing Credit (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (October)

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (September)/ Business Confidence Q3

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Thailand Current Account (September)/ Private Investment & Consumption (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Government Budget Value (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/17)/ Deposit Growth (October/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/24)        

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Mitsubishi Electric,

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia holds local elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Banca d’Italia will host the 11th edition of their International Macroeconomics Workshop, jointly organized with the Bank of England and Banque de France, at their base in Rome.

·       Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ MPC Meeting Summary

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)   

·       Hungary PPI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area     Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI (October)

·       Greece Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Current Account (September)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (September)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cote d’Ivoire holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (September)/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 1, 2025

 Global

·       Sierra Leone assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 2, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Daylight Savings Time ends in the US.

·       Mexico celebrates the Day of the Dead Parade in Mexico City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)     

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

Israeli-Hamas Peace Talks Take a Big Step, Trump Meetings with Canada’s Carney, the EU Parliament Holds No-Confidence Votes, the US Government Looks to Be Shut Another Week, and Markets Await a Flood of Central Bank Speeches

October 5 - 12, 2025

The world is watching events unfold in the Middle East as Hamas appears to be ready to accept a good portion of President Trump’s peace plan proposal, including releasing all remaining hostages (just as we come up on the 2 year anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on Israel).  There are several unresolved points but US negotiators led by Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff are in Egypt now working to finalize the deal but there is real hope the hostages will be released this week.

Also this week, President Trump has invited Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to meet with him at the White House on Tuesday to discuss both trade issues as well as mutual security concerns.  Trade negotiators have been careful not to oversell the outcome of the meeting but there is hope a deal can be struck between the two leaders.

Meanwhile in Washington, the federal government shutdown continues, and House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has announced the House of Representatives will not return to work unless Democrats accept the continuing resolution they passed two weeks ago.  At this point, we do not see a deal emerging soon but there is always hope.

In Europe, the European Parliament is scheduled to hold two no-confidence votes against EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden.  This is the second time no-confidence votes have been brought against von der Leyden in the last three months. While both votes are expected to fail, it shows how split the Parliament is on issues ranging from trade to climate.

Staying in Europe, the Nobel Committee will begin announcing winners of their prestigious prize on Monday.  The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, and the Nobel Prize for Economics will be announced next Monday.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are awaiting a flood of speeches from central bankers.  In the US alone, we count sixteen Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve President speeches over the course of five days, including a speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell. 

And in the EU, we count eleven scheduled European Central Bank (ECB) board member speeches including two from ECB President Christine Lagarde (and more are expected to be announced) plus Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking in Scotland. That is a lot of data for the markets to take in and, in our view, a bit odd considering the week of October 12th is the Annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, DC where there will be countless central bankers speaking.

With the US government shutdown still going, there will be limited economic data releases.  The Federal Reserve releases minutes from their last Open Market Meeting.  And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out Friday.

In Asia, China’s Gold Week holiday continues until October 8th.   Japan, which has just elected its first woman as Prime Minister, releases its Regional Economic Report on Monday and the Consumer Activity Index on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

·       Israel is expected to begin mediated negotiations with Hamas in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Monday, October 6, 2025

Global

·       The Nobel Committee begins announcing winners of prizes. Today’s prize will be for physiology or medicine.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and Peace and Security.

·       The World Trade Organization’s General Council meeting takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court begins a new term, hearing cases.

·       Unless there is a last-minute breakthrough agreement between Congressional Republicans and Democrats over a Continuing Resolution bill, the federal government will remain shut this week and the House of Representatives will stay out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks to CFA Society Kansas City on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Azerbaijan hosts the 12th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament is expected to hold two separate no-confidence vote son European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sometime this week.  Both votes are expected to fail.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Scotland’s Global Investment Summit 2025 being held in Edinburgh.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening remarks at the Diario Expansión: XVI Encuentro Financiero in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2025: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania Retail Sales (August)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (August)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ ECB Lane Speech/ Retail Sales (August)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Serbia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan PPI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (AU).

·       Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event begins and runs through October 8. This will be closely watched by economist for any slowdown in shopping by consumers.

·       The 2025 Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Donald Trump will host Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House for talks on trade.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran

·       Sits for a fireside chat at the Managed Funds Association (MFA) Policy Outlook 2025 in New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran gives a talk at the Deutsche Bank 2025 Fall Macro Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in discussion on the economic outlook at event hosted by Fisk University.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation on artificial intelligence and the economy before the Star Tribune North Star Summit 2025.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Consumer Credit Change (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The FIATA World Congress – global freight forwarders – in Hanoi, Vietnam to discuss various topics, such as challenges in the new global trade landscape and how to navigate them. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is scheduled to attend the event

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q3/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/07)       

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)/ RBA Annual Report 2025

·       Japan Household Spending (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Economic Index (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Motorbike Sales (September)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Singapore     Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech followed by a Q&A session at Business France event 'Business en Européens' in Paris, France.

·       Germany Factory Orders (August)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)/ Treasury Gilt 2028 Tender

·       Hungary Industrial Production August)

·       France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       This is the 2nd anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on civilians in Israel and taking of hostages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Global

·       In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia and the 2713 Committee. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).  

·       In Washington, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain raiser speech for the upcoming 2025 Annual Meetings being held next week.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louise, Missouri.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on community development and Indian Country the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Center for Indian Country Development 10th Anniversary and Data Summit: Braiding the Past and Future of Native Economies, Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (October/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/03)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/03)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Paris Europlace Forum 20254 will take place in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Uedo speaks at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo.

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Bank Lending (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Survey (September)

·       Australia Building Permits (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at 55th anniversary event of the Werner Report "Itinéraires luxembourgeois et européens" in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion at the International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (August)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (September)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).     

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Literature is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Future of Community Banking: Challenges and Opportunities” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis, Minesota.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Looking Toward the Future” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/08)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/04)/ Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)                 

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (September)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg.  The EU Finance Ministers will discuss macroeconomic and fiscal monitoring including preparation for upcoming international meetings.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 10 in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a roundtable discussion and Q&A at the Irish Association of Investment Managers in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)   

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uganda Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Friday, October 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in fireside chat before the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce Public Policy Speaker's Series.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before the 19th annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Charting the Course" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Wages (September)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te is expected to deliver a national day address.

·       Tajikistan will host a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Dushanbe.   They will simultaneously host the 2ndCentral Asia-Russia Summit.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend both events.

·       North Korea is expected to show off its newest weapons at a large military parade to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party. High-ranking officials from China and Russia are expected to participate. The last time North Korea held a large military parade was in July 2023 to mark the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)

·       Australia RBA Bullock Speech/ RBA Kent Speech

·       Japan PPI (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (September)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/26)/ Deposit Growth (September/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit India through October 10th.

·       In Slovenia, the 2025 Nato Parliamentary Assembly Annual Session, where 281 parliamentary members from 32 Nato member states are due to discuss Euro-Atlantic Defence and the continent’s security agenda.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Brussels.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss financing the EU Budget, taxation of tobacco, climate financing, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

·       Greece Industrial Production (August)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Naura holds parliamentary elections and a referendum on the Constitution.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Scottish National party annual three-day conference begins in Aberdeen.

·       In Belfast, Northern Ireland’s Ulster Unionist party annual conference open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds the 2nd round of National Assembly elections.

·       IN the Seychelles, the conclusion of a three-day presidential run-off election after no candidate secured the required 50 per cent majority in the first-round vote, held on September 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit opens, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

EU Leaders Discuss defense and Ukraine aid; Trump talks Gaza with Netanyahu; US Nears Government Shutdown, and Markets Await Numerous Central Bank Speeches

September 28 - October 5, 2025

It is going to be another fast and furious week for markets to absorb and analyze.  We believe the most important event of the week might be a gathering of EU leaders in Copenhagen on Wednesday to discuss common defense issues, how to better support Ukraine militarily, and possible enlargement.  But the main topic will be how they can collectively respond to the spike of Russian intrusions into Polish, Romanian, Danish, and Latvian airspace with fighter jets and drones.  The Russian actions can no longer be considered “accidental” and are clearly both a provocation and a testing of NATO response capabilities. 

In last week’s report, we noted EU leaders were starting to consider the building of a “drone wall” on the border with Russia.  The meeting in Copenhagen will likely solidify the plans.  It may even authorize the use of frozen Russian assets to fund the layered defense strategy, which would include advanced radar, anti-aircraft missiles, and drones to counter any future Russian airspace trespassing.

The meetings will take place after Sunday’s elections in Moldova, which are being closely watched for potential Russian interference.  The Moldovan government has already banned two political parties from participating in the election due to their alleged ties to the Kremlin.  Concerns are rising over potential civil unrest in the coming days, potentially instigated by Russia.  As of this writing Sunday night, the pro-EU Party is leading in the vote count.

Meanwhile, in Washington on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet at the White House with President Trump – their fourth such meeting this year at the White House – to discuss the crisis in Gaza and Israeli threats to begin annexing the West Bank – something President Trump has now voiced opposition to.   While at the United Nations last week, Trump convened a meeting of Arab leaders to discuss potential Gaza peace options, and he is likely to discuss them with Netanyahu during the meeting.  The deal contains 21 proposals and according to various reports, leaves the door open for the creation of a new Palestinian state.

Staying in Washington for a moment, markets are closely watching to see if Congress can hammer out a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown on Wednesday.  President Trump has agreed to meet with Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders on Monday to discuss a possible deal.  Otherwise, the House of Representatives, who passed a short-term Continuing Resolution to keep the government open before they left for the week last week, may not come back into session this week in an effort to force Senate Democrats into accepting their bill (Translation: you’d better vote for it or the shutdown is all your fault – and we won’t be here for another week to try again).  For Democrats, the real risk of this is the White House is threatening to fire – instead of furloughing – large numbers of federal workers if there is a shutdown, something Democrats absolutely want to avoid happening (but we would note, this is clearly an indicator of where the Trump Administration wants to go with the 2026 budget which Congress will be working on later this fall – massive shrinkage of the federal government, continuing the DOGE effort first begun by Elon Musk).

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, in the US, the major data reports being released will focus on employment, with the JOLTS report scheduled for Tuesday and the ADP report for Wednesday.   Also released this week are the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Index and ADP employment report on Wednesday, indices on Wednesday and Friday, and factory orders on Thursday.  The ISM Services Index is scheduled for release on Friday.

Turning to Asia, Japan’s industrial production figures and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions are out on Tuesday, and the Tankan survey is out on Wednesday.  On Tuesday, China releases September PMIs, and the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to discuss interest rates.

In Europe, markets are awaiting the flash CPIs for Germany, France, and Italy on Tuesday, as well as the Eurozone CPIs on Wednesday.  Also, there are a number of central bank speeches being given this week, including two policy speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (Tuesday and Friday) and one by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Friday).

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 28, 2025

 Global

·       The UN General Assembly continues through Monday, September 29th.

·       UN Sanctions against Iran “snap back” into place due to Iran’s refusal to maintain inspections of its nuclear program.

·       The 7th Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Material Sciences and Nanotechnology takes place in Brazil.

·       The 4th  Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Geospatial Technologies and its Application takes place in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.  There is significant concern about likely Russian interference in the election.  Moldovan authorities barred two pro-Russia parties from this Sunday’s election. 

·       The chair of Russia's State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, will visit Vietnam through September 29th.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

·       The UK Labor Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (specifically, the situation in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will again host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza and the West Bank.

·       Ukrainian defense officials will travel to Washington to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller will give a speech on payments a the Sibos 2025 Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in a policy panel, "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025," hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Center for Inflation Research, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks at an event, "The Past, Present and Future of the Federal Reserve".

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in a conversation organized by the Rochester Institute of Technology.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a conversation on Atlanta's economy, air travel, and leadership as part of the Atlanta Fed Leading Voices Series.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)

·       / Pending Home Sales (August)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (August)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Current Account Q2

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Carnival

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur concludes.

·       The Asian Development Bank releases its latest economic assessment report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi speaks at the Sapporo Chamber of Commerce and Industry Conference.

·       Philippines PPI (August)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Singapore Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

·       India Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The final results of the Moldovan elections are announced.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), one of the main elements of the 2028-2034 long-term EU budget (the forthcoming multiannual financial framework (MFF).  They will then hear a presentation on simplification, and exchange views on the Single Market Strategy.

· The Warsaw Security Forum will be held in Warsaw, Poland, through September 30th.  On the sidelines of the Forum, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet with his counterparts from Ukraine, France, and Poland as part of the “Weimar Triangle.”

·       The Sibos Conference begins in Frankfurt, Germany, and runs through October 2. The theme of the conference is “The Next Frontiers of Global Finance” and will feature hundreds of speakers, including leading central bankers and government officials from around the world.  

·       The Vaclav Havel Rights Award will be announced in Strasbourg, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech followed by a fireside chat at the Baltic Digital Euro Conference titled 'Payments & Policy in a Changing Environment' organized by Eesti Pank in Tallinn, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on 'Current aspects of monetary policy' with the Committee on Economic and Monetary Policy of the Association of German Banks in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic chairs panel at European Bank Coordination initiative in Brussels 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at '10 years of the SRM - a decade delivering a more resilient financial system' organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at 'Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025' conference organized by the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Euro Economic Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Approvals (August)/ Mortgage Lending (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Energy Week begins in Cape Town, South Africa, where senior government leaders and the OPEC Secretary General will gather to discuss energy policy for the continent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision 

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti. Then it will hold a briefing on MONUSCO, the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, followed by consultations..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to speak to Brazilian President Lula regarding US tariffs on Brazil.

·       The US Senate returns after a week off for home business.  It is unclear whether the House of Representatives will return, however, as Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) has suggested he may keep the body from returning to try to force Senate Democrats to vote in favor of the Continuing Resolution the House passed ten days ago to keep the government open.

·       At midnight, unless the US Congress passes a continuing resolution to fund the federal government, there will be a government shutdown.  The Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Voight, has threatened to fire large numbers of civil servants instead of simply furloughing them.

·       The Regional Dialogue of the Fourth International Symposium on Transboundary Waters in Latin America and the Caribbean will take place in Lima, Peru, through October  2nd, with participation by government authorities and the Inter-American Development Bank.

·       Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth convenes an extraordinary meeting of top military officials at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on Monetary Policy Frameworks and the US Economic Outlook at the Bank of Finland International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins makes remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations’ C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York. 

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest Agriculture Conference: Midwest Agriculture and Trade Uncertainty

·       USA Redbook (September/27)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ Chicago PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn/ Soy/ Wheat (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/26)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Current Account Q2

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Nike

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is China National Day, otherwise known as Martyrs’ Day.

·       North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will visit China through September 30th.

·       Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will meet South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in Busan, South Korea, through October. 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and press conference Australia Private Sector Credit (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)/ Housing Credit (August)/ Building Permits (August)/Cotality Dwelling Prices (September)

·       China NBS General/Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing PMI (September)/ RatingDog General & Services & Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Current Account Q2

·       Singapore Bank Lending (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       India Government Budget Value (August)/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research) will meet in Brussels. Ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on the importance of research and innovation for the EU Startup and Scaleup Strategy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 4th Bank of Finland's International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       The Bank of Finland will organize the 4th International Monetary Policy Conference on Monetary Policy in the Shadow of Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Conflicts (virtual).

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the S&P Global Ratings 2025 European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion titled 'View from the Top: Securing Europe; s financial future - Resilience, autonomy, and global impact' at Sibos in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at a high-level event, 'Climate action that works for you - An agenda for competitiveness, prosperity and resilience' in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Cardiff Business School.

·       Germany Retail Sales (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/Baden-Württemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q2/ Business Investment Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ BoE Lombardelli Speech/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE L Mann Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (August)/ PPI (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       Turkey Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

·       Italy PPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Current Account (July)

·       Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Sales (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Current Account (August)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: Tesco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which went into effect 25 years ago, expires. The Act allowed duty-free trade between a number of African nations and the US.

·       The West Africa Mining Security Conference begins in Accra, Ghana.

·       Today is Botswana Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Global

·       Russia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.  There will be a press briefing by Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month, on the Programme of Work for the month of October they intend to pursue.

·       Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish year, begins at sundown and ends at nightfall on October 2nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, large trucks, and other goods go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/26)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/26)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers sits for a fireside chat at Canada’s Competition Summit 2025 in Ottawa, Ontario.

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q2

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: ConAgra, Acuity

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day of the People’s Republic of China, celebrating Mao Zedon’g formal proclamation of the establishment of the communist state – otherwise known as Golden Week.  Observed on October 1st, another six days are added to the official holiday.

·       Today is Tuvalu Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/ RBA Chart Pack/ Commodity Prices (September)

·       Japan Tankan Large All Industry/ Manufacturers Index Q3/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September/19)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of state in Copenhagen.  EU leaders will discuss how to strengthen Europe’s defense, also in light of Russia’s recent airspace violations in several EU member states.  They will also discuss ways of further supporting Ukraine.

·       Russia officially begins its annual autumn military conscription.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with his counterparts from the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Sochi, Russia.

·       Greece is bracing for a general nationwide strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give a one-on-one interview and then participate in a panel discussion at the POLITICO Competitive Europe Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at the ECB Industry Dialogue on Climate and nature risk management: Taking stock and looking ahead in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Hungry HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

·       Euro HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, October 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated conversation before the UT Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Factory Orders (August)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/01)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada BoC Mendes Speech

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 62nd US–Japan Business Conference begins in Tokyo and runs through Saturday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/27)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ RBA Financial Stability Review/ Household Spending (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

·       Russia GDP (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 7th European Political Community begins in Copenhagen, Denmark.  More than 50 European leaders will participate as well as the EU Parliament, EU Commission, and the European Council.

·       French unions have called for nationwide strikes today in opposition to proposed parliamentary austerity proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a fireside chat at EC-EIB-ESM Capital Markets Seminar in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at ESADE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

·       Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (September)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (September)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guinea Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

Friday, October 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on the US Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework at the Drexel Economic Forum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium organized by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Government Payrolls (September)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/03)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (July)

·       Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates National Foundation Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to a group of business leaders in Osaka.

·       Australia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany celebrates the 35th anniversary of reunification.  French President Emmanuel Macron will join German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Saarbrucken to celebrate.

·       The Czech Republic holds elections for its Chamber of Deputies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot, 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities', organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party holds its leadership elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia will hold municipal elections to select mayors and members of local representative councils, the Sakrebulo.

·       Today in Germany is National Unity Day, celebrating German reunification.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Lesotho Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds it annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Global Week Ahead

Global Leaders Gather for the UN General Assembly, Canada, France, and the UK Recognize Palestinian Statehood, EU Defense Ministers Consider a “Drone Wall”, and Markets Brace for Global Flash PMIs and Lots of US Central Bank Speeches

September 21 - 28, 2025

New York will be the center of the geopolitical radar screen this coming week.  The United Nations General Assembly’s High-Level General Debate begins on Tuesday, the 80th anniversary meeting, and world leaders will descend on the Big Apple to deliver speeches.  But the truly big event at the UN this week will be the meeting on Palestinian statehood, co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia.   French President Emmanuel Macron will use the event to formally recognize a Palestinian State, following Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia in making the dramatic diplomatic policy move.  

The move by major Western nations calling for a two-state solution shows the growing divide between them and Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to oversee military action in the Gaza Strip and reportedly is considering annexing the West Bank – all as the US and other countries continue to gain the freedom of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Also happening on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly will be a meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN Assembly.  The main issue they will discuss is efforts to secure a cease-fire in Ukraine, something Russian President Vladimir Putin has been resisting despite President Trump’s increasing threats of more stringent sanctions on Russian oil sales. Markets will be watching closely for any sign of a thaw that could delay Trump’s move toward stricter sanctions.

Overall, there are innumerable other meetings and conferences taking place on the sidelines of the Assembly.  You can find the schedule of when leaders are speaking here, and for a listing of all the other meetings and conferences taking place, you can find them here.

While all this is going on, EU Defense Ministers will be meeting in Latvia to discuss the spike in Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO airspace. The Ministers will consider creating a layered defense system of drones, radar, jamming stations, and other precision weapons to prevent future Russian incursions. The meeting is another sign of the growing tensions between European NATO members and Moscow as Russian President Putin grows either more aggressive or more reckless - or both - in his provocations of NATO.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big event for markets will be the global flash PMI reports for any signs of growing inflation.  In the Americas, markets will be listening closely to Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday and watching for a number of key reports, including new home sales on Wednesday, existing home sales and durable goods orders on Thursday, and the August PCE print is out on Friday. 

However, we would also note that this is going to be a hectic week for Fed governors “speechifying” – 14 Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed presidents will be speaking in total.  And in Canada, Reserve Bank Governor Tiff Macklin will give a speech and hold a press conference this week, too.  And in Mexico, the Central Bank will meet on interest rates.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its August consumer expectation survey on Friday.  Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Wednesday, and consumer confidence surveys for Germany and France are out on Thursday.

Finally, in Asia, Japan releases September CPI figures on Friday, and China releases August inflation data on Wednesday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Belize Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

·       Today is Armenia's Independence Day.

·       Today is Malta Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Africa Business Initiative (GABI) will convene the 4th edition of Unstoppable Africa, on the sidelines of the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in Mid-Town Manhattan, New York. 

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum on whether to establish a new constitution replacing the one approved in 2020 and mark the first step towards civilian rule.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 22, 2025

Global

·       At the United Nations, the 2nd World Summit on Palestine Statehood, bringing together numerous heads of state and sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, will attempt to revive the long-stalled “two-State solution” to establish a Palestinian state and the “two-state solution.”  France is expected to join Canada, Great Britain, and other countries in recognizing a Palestinian state.

·       At the United Nations, the High-level Meeting to Commemorate the 80th Anniversary of the United Nations will take place. This one-hour meeting will mark the 80th anniversary of the establishment of the United Nations, with UN officials and Heads of State and Government reflecting on the achievements of the past eight decades and the path ahead for a more inclusive and responsive multilateral system. 

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency holds a meeting in Vienna, Austria.

·       Rosh Hashana – the Jewish New Year -  commemorations begin.

·       The Autum Equinox happens in the Northern Hemisphere (Summer is now officially over and its autumn).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House and Senate are out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louise Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives a speech on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran Non-Monetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates virtually in panel before the “Monetary Policy Frameworks: Recent Developments and Outlook An International Comparative View" event organized by the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and SUERF.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “The Fed's Role in the Economy and Impact on Everyday Life" before a "Fed Talk" event.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually on the economy before the Howard County (Maryland) Chamber of Commerce.

·       Canada PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Paraguay PPI (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party will begin a two-week leadership contest, with the vote to be held on October. 4. Though the LDP does not have a majority in the Diet, Japan's parliament, it is by far the largest party, so the new leader is most likely to become the next prime minister.

·       Malaysia will host the 57th ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting and related sessions this year in Kuala Lumpur as the bloc's chair, with the summit running through Friday alongside the RCEP Ministers' Meeting. Officials will also hold consultations with dialogue partners, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the European Union trade chief, to review market access, regional supply chains and the rules-based trading system.

·       Reforms to India's complex consumption taxes will kick in as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries to spur domestic consumption in a slowing economy. Under the reforms, most goods and services will be taxed in two tiers of 5% and 18%, with the government abolishing the 12% and 28% brackets. The reforms come just ahead of the crucial festive season between October and December, when Indians engage in the bulk of their yearly shopping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock delivers the semi-annual testimony to a parliamentary panel in Canberra.

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through September 23 in Brussels.  The EU Commission will present its proposals for the common agricultural policy (CAP) post-2027, and agriculture ministers will have the opportunity to hold a first policy debate on the future CAP.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations.  Later, she will deliver a speech at the Global Renewables Summit and then participate in at the high-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat at the London School of Economics.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at BIS-ECB-SUERF high-level online workshop on Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook – an international comparative view.

·       European Central Bank Board Member  José Luis Escrivá speaks at an event in Madrid.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mali Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN General Assembly begins in New York and runs through September 29th.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a high-level briefing on the situation of the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question.  Later, the Council is scheduled to hold a High-Level briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report for the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will address the UN General Assembly.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will host an event on Russia's abduction of children at the fringes of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

·       The Third Annual CAF / UNDP Conference on Governance for Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Critical Natural Resources for Sustainable Development will be held at the United Nations.

·       Ecuadorian unions will march in Quito over the government's elimination of a diesel subsidy. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention (virtual).

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before a Macro Musings podcast live recording.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Saskatoon, followed by a press conference.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Redbook (September/20)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/19)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Micron Technology, Costco, Autozone

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the Euro-Asia Economic Forum (under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Xi'an through September  25.

·       The Fifth Asia Finance Forum, hosted by the Asian Development Bank, begins in Manila, Philippines.

·       Jakarta and Brussels will sign the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Bali. The pact is expected to boost Indonesia's exports by over twofold, from a current trade value of around $30 billion. The deal comes after negotiations that spanned a decade, which concluded successfully in July.

·       The S-Tron Conference begins in Shanghai.  The two-day startup event allows start-up founders to pitch business plans they hope will become the next big thing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japanese financial markets are closed for the Autumn Equinox.

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat and panel discussion at the Financial Market Authority's 16th annual supervisory conference in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a discussion at the Inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Artificial Intelligence and international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/19)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/19)/Building Permits (August)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)

·       EARNINGS: KB Home, Cintas

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Payments System Board Annual

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the United Nations Climate Summit 2025.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at Bloomberg's Future of Finance conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2025 'AI in action: Shaping the future of banking and banking supervision' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene gives a speech at the Glasgow Business School on “Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy.”

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Spain PPI (August)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (September)/ Ifo Current Conditions (September)/ Ifo Expectations (September)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/ODI Conference on Global Finance begins in London, where researchers and practitioners will discuss frontier research on public finance, with a focus on low and middle-income countries.

·       BP launches an annual Energy Outlook, looking at the long-term trends and projections for global oil and gas markets to 2050.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will host Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Washington for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation on bank stress testing at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan.”

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Sales Q2/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/24)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Accenture, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Game Show will be held for four days through September 28 at the Makuhari Messe convention center east of Tokyo. First held in 1996, it is one of the world's leading game events.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

·       Taiwan Retail Sales (August)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (September)

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin

·       EU New Car Registrations (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Hungary Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       France Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Greece Total Credit (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3/ PPI (August)

Friday, September 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

·       Canada GDP (July)/ Wholesale Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       USA PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/26)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Panama Current Account Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) will be held at the United Nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The HKIB Annual Banking Conference is held in Hong Kong with Financial Secretary Paul Chan giving an opening keynote address.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/20)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q3/ Consumer Confidence Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/12)/ Deposit Growth (September/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia hosts a two-day NATO military committee conference beginning in Riga.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB-CEPR-Bocconi conference hosted by the University of Bocconi in Milan, Italy.

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Italy Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       ECB Consumer Inflation Expectation

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds national assembly elections.

·       The Seychelles holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.