The Global Week Ahead

France’s Government Faces a Tough No Confidence Vote, Japan’s Prime Minister Resigns, Brazil’s Former President Faces Prison, and the ECB Meets on Interest Rates

September 7 - 14, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed geopolitical week ahead for markets to keep close tabs on as there are a number of events with significant market implications. 

First, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a no confidence vote on Monday after pushing for an austerity measures to deal with France’s current fiscal deficit which is approaching 5.4%. and the overall highest deficit of any member of the Eurozone.  As things stand now, Bayrou looks like he is going to be forced from office and French President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new prime minister who can mollify the various parliamentary factions and avoid an early legislative election.  That is not going to be easy and, ultimately, it looks as if the only winner out of all this is the far-right National Rally Party.

Overnight in Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced he was stepping down after brutal legislative elections in July for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to losing its parliamentary majority.  Ishiba’s poll numbers were never very strong, but only worsened with President Trump’s tough tariffs on Japan, which Ishiba described as a “national crisis.”  Ishiba has called for the LDP to hold an emergency leadership vote to choose his successor.  No date has been set yet.

Also, this week, there will be a lot of market-impacting political action in Brazil.  Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) is convening on Monday a virtual meeting of the BRICS+ to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and how the BRICS members might form a multilateral response.   Not all of the BRICS leaders will be attending - including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others – who are instead sending aids to cover the meeting (all of which suggests Lula’s efforts are likely not to come to much in terms of an organized response).

But later in the week, the Brazilian Supreme Court will be considering whether former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and seven former aides and allies are guilty of attempting a coup in 2022 after Bolsonaro lost to Lula in elections.   Heated protests have been held around the country in support of Bolsonaro, showing how politically split the electorate is at the moment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screens, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meetings.   Market consensus believes the ECB will hold rates at 2% and is looking for more economic assurances before moving to lower rates going forward.

Also, in Europe this week, the UK releases GDP figures on Friday, Germany releases trade figures and industrial production on Monday, and France releases industrial production figures on Tuesday.

In the Americas this week, markets are looking for the August PPI report on Wednesday and the August CPI report on Thursday, probably the two most important reports out before the Federal Reserve decides on rates on September 17th.  Adding to this will be the University of Michigan consumer survey for September on Friday.  Also, this week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will unveil the 2026 budget, which will be

Turning to Asia, Japan will release its GDP on Monday and PPI on Thursday. China will be releasing trade data on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets to discuss oil output targets.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       (To Be Confirmed) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Argentina through September 10th.

·       In Brazil on Brazil's Independence Day, demonstrations will take place both in support of and in opposition to former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 8, 2025

Global

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host a virtual meeting of BRICS leaders to discuss U.S. trade policies and rally support for multilateralism.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria.  Iran’s nuclear program will be the leading issue discussed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Schoenbaum presents her administration’s draft 2026 budget; budget expected to include plans to increase tariffs on Chinese automotive, textile, and plastics imports.

·       The First Nuclear Energy Conference and Expo sponsored by American Nuclear Society and the Nuclear Energy Institute begins in Atlanta, Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July) 

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Used Car Prices (August) 

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July) 

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee is held in Beijing through September 12th.  They are expected to approve a numb er of draft laws, including a draft atomic energy law, a draft law on public health emergency response, a draft law on national parks, a draft law on the safety management of hazardous chemicals, and other pressing issues.

·       The Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting will kick off in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, bringing together leaders of the body's 18 members. During the five-day gathering, they will discuss challenges facing the region, such as climate change, transnational crime and rising geopolitical tensions between China and West. External partners including the U.S., China, Japan and Taiwan are not invited to the meeting this year.

·       The annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, organized by S&P Global, will kick off in Singapore. Hundreds of petroleum, gas, petrochemical, trading, technology and financial executives, as well as senior government officials from across the globe, are set to convene in the city-state, where issues such as the financing of future energy solutions and the impact of technological innovations and disruptions on the energy sector will be discussed.

·       The 14th Seoul Defense Dialogue (SDD) begins in Seoul.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues his state visit to Cambodia, which runs through Tuesday, as the two Southeast Asian nations look to boost relations. On the agenda are mutual concerns over transnational crime and efforts to bolster cooperation on agriculture, higher education and tourism, as well as to strengthen market access for bilateral and intra-ASEAN trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese investment firm CITIC opens a four-day forum in Hong Kong, bringing in a lineup of top global executives to discuss major issues affecting portfolios. Sessions will cover a range of topics, from cryptocurrencies and China tech to macroeconomic trends.

·       Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August) 

·       Australia Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July) 

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Motorbike Sales (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Norway holds parliamentary elections.

·       French government faces confidence vote in National Assembly.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August) 

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q2 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Second Africa Climate Summit takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Global

·        The 80th session of the U.N. General Assembly will open.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The future of peace operations - Key issues, opportunities and challenges in the context of the review of the future of all UN peace operations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Apple holds its annual media day where it is expected to launch the new iPhone 16.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/05) 

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision 

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August) 

·       EARNINGS: Oracle, Synopsys, GameStop

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Republic Day, marking the day in 1948 when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was proclaimed and Kim Il Sung was declared its premier.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2 

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August) 

·       Philippines Industrial Production (July) 

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August) 

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (August) 

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Singapore  Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Indonesia Car Sales (August) 

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will meet in London.

·       The Defense & Security Exports International (DSEI) Fair begins in London and runs through September 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August) 

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August) 

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech 

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August) 

·       France Industrial Production (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People will convene its 425th meeting in ECOSOC at UNHQ in New York. At this meeting, the Committee will receive briefings by the Permanent Observer Mission of the State of Palestine and Palestinian civil society representatives on the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/05)/ PPI (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/05)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August) 

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Chewy, Daktronics, Vince

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Semicon Taiwan 2025 opens in Taipei. The chip industry's flagship event will welcome over 1,200 companies and is expected to draw more than 100,000 visitors.

·       The 2025 Financial Review Asia Summit takes place in Sydney, Australia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July) 

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August) 

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June) 

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July) 

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July) 

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the 2025 State of the Union address in Brussels.  Later in the day, she receives European Tech and Industry CEOs for a working dinner.

·       Widespread protests are expected across France over the current budget proposal being considered by parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       The Governing Council of the European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings in Frankfurt.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Clauda Buch gives a keynote speech at the BIS Innovation Summit 2025.

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Spain Industrial Production (July) 

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July) 

·       Italy Industrial Production (July) 

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Greece Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ireland Industrial Production (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech 

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference begins in Bangui, Central African Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August) 

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1591 Committee (Sudan and whether to renew sanctions), in the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil report.

· The OECD annual report on fiscal reforms is published in Paris.

·       The OPEC Monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to convict and jail former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup to stay in power in 2022.

·       Nadine Menendez, wife of former U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, is due to be sentenced in a Manhattan district court after being convicted of helping her husband in a scheme to bribe Egyptian officials.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (September) 

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July) 

·       USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/06)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/10) 

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Adobe, Kroger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/06)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/06)/ BoJ JGB Purchases 

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September) 

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July) 

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog travels to London for meetings with UK ministers to discuss the situation in the West Bank and Gaza.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Copenhagen from September 12.

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s wife, Begona Gomez, along with one of her aides, will testify in court as part of an influence-peddling investigation.

·       Russia, Belarus hold joint military drills called 'Zapad-2025' through September 16.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       European Central Bank Monetary Policy meeting and press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion entitled "Lead, Innovate, Achieve: Championing Sustainability and Social Inclusion for 25 Years" organized by Business in the Community Ireland (BITCI) in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July) 

·       Turkey Retail Sales (July)/ Auto Production & Sales (August) 

·       ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference 

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision 

·       Germany Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Ministerial Meeting takes place in Sochi, Russia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July) 

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)   

Friday, September 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York Fashion Week (Spring-Summer) begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there this year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Canada Building Permits (July)/ Capacity Utilization Q2 

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/12) 

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (August) 

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech 

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2 

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July) 

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       India Inflation Rate (August)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/29)/ Deposit Growth (August/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August) 

·       Germany Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       France Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Turkey Current Account (July) 

·       Romania Current Account (July) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (July) 

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo VIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August) 

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts the SCO Summit and Celebrates the 80th Anniversary of the End of World War II with World Leaders, Trump’s Tariff Deals in Doubt, and Markets Focus on the Fed’s Beige Book and US Jobs Report

Summer is officially over and world capitals in the Northern Hemisphere are roaring back to work this week.  But the major geopolitical events of the week will be in China. 

President Xi Jinping is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit being held in Tianjin, China.  This will be a particularly important SCO gathering as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other leading Asian leaders will be in attendance and holding sideline meetings with Xi.  Of note, Prime Minister Modi’s sideline meeting with Xi shows continuing warming between the two nations – which has been historically frosty – as both struggle to deal with President Trump’s tough tariff regime. 

After the SCO, Xi will hold an extravaganza 80th anniversary celebration in Beijing marking the end of World War II for China.  Putin, Modi, and at least 28 other national leaders will be in attendance including North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.  The significance of his attendance is it suggests new warming in the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang which has been strained in recent years.

What both events clearly show is a growing alignment between nations that are outright hostile to the United States and the West with those nations hardest hit by the Trump tariffs, giving the combined nations a reason to work together. Seeing the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, India, Iran, Cuba, and other nations sitting together watching an enormous Chinese military parade will drive that point home.  What comes out of these meetings will likely be quite impactful on global markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Here in the US, two issues will be of major focus to markets this week.  First, the decision by a Federal Appeals Court on Friday ruled that President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is illegal.  These were put in place on “Liberation Day” on April 2nd.  The decision upholds an earlier ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and is now likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court.  But in the meantime, it puts into doubt the legality of Trump’s trade deals with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea.  Moreover, it the US Supreme Court upholds this decision, it will mean the Trump Administration will have to repay the billions of tariffs collected since April, estimated at roughly $142 billion.

The second event is the ongoing battle over whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook.  A federal judge on Friday held an emergency hearing on the matter but did not issue a ruling.  Our view is that this battle will go all the way to the Supreme Court and will likely not hold Cook back from voting at the upcoming Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on interest rates later this month.

Turning to look at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, and starting with the US, there will be a number of important reports out this week. The big events will be the Federal Reserve’s release of the Beige Book on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  Also, this week, the ISM indices will be out, giving more clarity on the manufacturing and services sectors, and the JOLTS print on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday.

In Asia, Japan releases Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations for Q2, which is expected to show as much as 3% growth year over year.   In China, the August PMIs are out on Sunday, and manufacturing data is out on Monday, while services data is out on Wednesday.

In Europe, we will see the Eurozone CPI report on Tuesday as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il are expected  to attend.  Putin will afterwards travel to Beijing for meetings with Xi.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Polish Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw and the visit the border between Poland and Belarus. She will then travel to Bulgaria to meet with Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov and visit a defense factor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Oman will implement a "golden visa" for investors and wealthy residents..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 1, 2025

Global

·        Egypt will host a G20 meeting on food security in Cairo.

·       South Korea assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Guyana holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Centre-left President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C) is likely to be re-elected. However, opposition parties will likely secure a majority in the National Assembly (legislature).

·       Today is Labor Day in the United State and Canada. It is a national holiday in both countries.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Mexican judges elected in the country's first judicial election in June will take office.

·       The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission continues its annual meeting in Panama City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Fiscal Balance (July)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (August)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs through September 2 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       The EU Parliament returns to work from summer holiday.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Lithuania to meet with President Gitana Nauseda and then visit the Lithuania and Belarus border.  She will then travel to Romania and meet with President Nicusor Dan and Prime Minister Illie Bolojan and visit the military port of Constana.

·       The British Parliament returns to work from their summer holiday.

·       Moldova begins negotiations with the EU about joining.

·       Today is Slovakia Constitution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a dinner speech at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a panel on 'Autonomy through the internal market and the capital markets union' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will chair a panel on 'Resilience, autonomy and cooperation in payments and clearing systems' at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference titled 'Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation' in Frankfurt Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)/ BoE Consumer Credit (July)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Hungary PPI (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Mexico and Ecuador for bilateral meetings through September 4.

·       The US Congress returns to work from its August recess.

·       Brazil's Supreme Court hear legal arguments regarding attempted coup charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       USA Redbook (August)/30/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will meet with and give remarks to local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Japan.

·       New Zealand Export Prices Q2/ Import Prices Q2/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/02)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (August)

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Thailand Business Confidence (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (August)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will chair a panel on 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel entitled 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania PPI (July)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (July)

·       France Budget Balance (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Flash (August)/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Machado Speech

·       Italy PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lebanese Armed Forces will present a plan for Hezbollah's disarmament to Lebanon's Cabinet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations General Assembly will meet on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will host Polish President Karol Nawrocki at the White House.

·       Jamaica holds House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem gives speech at the Peterson Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Minnesota Women's Economic Roundtable.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/29)/JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/29)/EARNINGS: Salesforce, HPE, Gitlab, Dollar Tree

·       Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q2

·       Colombia Exports (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will hold a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, with 26 foreign leaders in attendance.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (August)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/22)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union's new floating price cap on Russian oil, set at 15% below the six-month average market price, will take effect.

·       The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok Russia through September 6.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcoming remarks at the 9th ESRB Conference "Broadening horizons: ESRB’s next decade of impact" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England and Warwick Business School Innovation In Money and Payments Conference.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q2

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)/ PPI (August)

·       Great Britain BoE L Mann Speech / S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Jordan PPI (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Angola will host its "Angola Oil & Gas" conference in Luanda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

Thursday, September 4, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, will meet with US trade negotiators in Washington today and Friday.

·       US Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran will get a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee to fill out the term of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

·       Bloomberg holds its Bloomberg Power Players New York Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before an Economic Club of New York Signature Luncheon.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before mHub Industry Disruptor Series event.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August)/30/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/03) EARNINGS: Broadcom, Lululemon

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (June)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (August)

·       Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (July)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/30

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Household Spending (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark through September 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Handelsblatt banking summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

·       Hungary Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (August)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

·       Ireland Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GNP Q2

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Business Confidence Q3

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Friday, September 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Wages (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Earnings (August)/ Government Payrolls (August)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (August)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

·       Costa Rica    Inflation Rate (August)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will host the 12th Japan-Australia meeting of foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo.

·       Singapore’s parliament goes into session.  This is the first gathering of parliament since the May elections when the ruling People’s Action Party won a commanding majority.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (July)/ Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (July)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Reform holds it two-day national conference in Birmingham, England.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Italy Retail Sales (July)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Serbia PPI (August)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Global

·       There will be an OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia     Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts Putin and Modi at the SCO Meeting, Iran Returns to the (European) Negotiating Table, Trump’s Additional 25% Tariffs on India Begin, and Markets Await Key Inflation Reports

August 24 - 30, 2025

The busiest summer we can remember in a long time comes to an end this week here in the US with the Labor Day holiday.  And, proving true to its non-stop tempo, it will be another busy week around the world.  In Tianjin, China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will meet. Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts the leaders of Belarus, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and – perhaps most importantly – Russia and India. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend and meet with Xi just as President Trump seeks to push forward with Ukrainian peace talks and prepares to slap new 25% tariffs on India Wednesday (on top of the existing 25% tariffs) for buying Russian oil which helps fund the war (but, notably, not on China which also is a massive purchaser of Russian oil).   It also comes a week after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Indian officials in New Delhi to discuss ways to further de-escalate border tensions and discuss commonalities in dealing with the US.

Meanwhile, in Vienna this week, Iranian officials are expected to meet with UK, French, and German diplomats on their nuclear program.  Iran risked the three European countries triggering “snapback” sanctions on them if they did not participate.  The talks come in the wake of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressing frustration with Tehran refusing to account for the status of their refined uranium stockpiles after Israel and the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities.   IAEA officials are also expected in Washington this week to meet with US officials over the same matter.

As noted above, President Trump is expected to impose new 25% tariffs on India this week for refusing to step back from purchasing oil from Russia.  India is the second-largest purchaser of Russian oil after China.  But unlike China, India’s purchase of Russian oil has spiked by almost 50% since Russia invaded Ukraine at steep discounts and then largely resells it as refined petroleum products globally, 42 percent to countries sanctioning Russian crude.

Also this week, President Trump will host South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the White House.  It is Lee’s first meeting with Trump since being elected in early June. The meeting with Trump will be important as both leaders want to nail down important details of a new trade deal and how best to cooperate on how to deal with China.  South Korea has agreed to more than $350 billion of investment in the US, which includes $150 billion in shipbuilding and $100 billion in LNG purchases.

Lee is coming off his first meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Saturday, where they agreed to cooperate on clean energy, AI, the aging population, and ways to boost some of the lowest birth rates in the world, and working with the US on dealing with North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile programs.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screens this week, inflation is the big focus for markets.  In the US, the July PCE report on Friday will give a clearer indication of which way inflation is headed in advance of the September Federal Reserve Board interest rate decision.  Also out this week will be new home sales on Monday, pending home sales on Tuesday, and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator on Tuesday.

We would note two other important US economic/financial events this week: First, the “de minimis” exemptions end on Friday. That exemption allowed international carriers to ship goods valued at $800 or less to the US without paying duties.   The second event is Nvidia’s quarterly earnings, where markets and policy analysts will be watching for guidance from the company on their sales to China after President Trump struck a deal with the company allowing the sale of their H20 and B40 chips in exchange for a percentage of their sales to China.  But the Chinese government told local tech companies not to buy Nvidia’s chips due to “security concerns.”

In Europe, inflation is also top of mind as Germany releases the Ifo Survey on Monday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, and France's consumer confidence is out on Wednesday.    Also out this week is the European Central Bank’s minutes on Thursday. 

In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and consumer confidence reports are out on Thursday and Friday, respectively. And China’s industrial profits are out on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Elon Musk's SpaceX is set to launch its massive Starship rocket for a tenth time from Texas on Sunday to achieve several long-sought development milestones.

·       President Nicolas Maduro today is deploying militia and volunteers across Venezuela against US “threats” and is calling for civilians to join the militia and armed forces.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will hold a summit in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Economic & Financial  Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Ukraine Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial  Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon(UNIFIL). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold closed consultations on the 1718 Committee (North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will travel to Washington, D.C. for his first meeting with President Donald Trump.  They are expected to discuss details of an emerging trade agreement to lower Washington's "reciprocal" tariffs to 15 percent.

·       A delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency will travel to Washington for high-level meetings on Iran’s nuclear program.  Iran has refused to explain what has happened to the 409 kilograms of enriched uranium the country developed following the US bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites.  Iran is also refusing to cooperate with the IAEA in accessing other key nuclear sites in the country.

·       US Navy warships are expected to arrive off the coast of Venezuela to assist in large-scale counter-narcotics operations.

·       Nigerian President Bola Tinubu will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia.

·       Today is Uruguay Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speak and participate in a panel before the Bank of Mexico Centennial Conference in Mexico City, Mexico.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)/ New Home Sales (July)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Building Permits (July)

·       Mexico Current Account Q2

·       Paraguay PPI (July)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia hosts “Super Garuda Shield, a joint military exercise with a ceremony in Jakarta co-hosted by the Indonesian and U.S. armed forces.  The annual drill will run for two weeks. Fifteen countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, are expected to take part, with a live-fire exercise scheduled to be held in Baturaja, Sumatra.

· Today is the Day of Songun, which is observed in North Korea. This holiday commemorates the start of the military-first rule in the nation, under the leadership of Kim Jong-il.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Evergrande will be delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

·       Japan Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Today is the Summer Bank Holiday in England and Wales.

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

·       Spain PPI (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate & Current Conditions & Expectations (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Organization of Islamic Cooperation will host an extraordinary meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on expanded Israeli military operations and a mounting humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambia hosts health ministers for the 75th session of the World Health Organization’s Regional Committee for Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and senior members of his Cabinet will travel to Germany to meet with Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the Central Bank of Mexico Conference in Mexico City, Mexico.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce.

·       Brazil Current Account (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July), Earnings: Scotiabank and BMO

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (July)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Redbook (August/23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (June)/ House Price Index (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (August)/ Money Supply (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/22), Earnings: Prudential

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The South Korean and U.S. militaries will hold the joint Ulchi Freedom Shield drills in South Korea through Aug. 28.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Singapore     Industrial Production (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Iran is expected to hold nuclear talks with French, British, and German diplomats in Vienna, Austria.  The three European countries have said they could re-activate UN sanctions on Iran under a snapback rule set in place unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table today.  Iran is refusing to disclose to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) what has happened to the 409 kilograms of enriched uranium the country developed following the US bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites.  Iran is also refusing to cooperate with the IAEA in accessing other key nuclear sites in the country.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       France Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will panelist at a conference commemorating the 100th Anniversary of the Central Bank of Mexico in Mexico City, Mexico.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (August)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the situation in Gaza.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s additional 25% tariffs on imports from India go into effect today.  Trump has said they are a penalty for buying Russian oil and raise the total tariffs on the South Asian nation to 50%, among the highest globally.

·       Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar travels to Washington for meetings with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. 

·       Brazilian Vice President and Trade Minister Geraldo Alckmin will lead a delegation to Mexico to meet with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

·       The political campaign period for Argentina's Oct. 26 midterm legislative elections will begin. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nvidia reports second-quarter earnings. Markets will be focused on guidance from the company with regard to China after receiving permission from the Trump Administration to sell H20 chips to China in return for 15 percent of profits earned there.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/22)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/22)/ Fed Barkin Speech

·       Brazil Bank Lending (July)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (July)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (July), Earnings: RBC and EQB.

·       Colombia Business Confidence (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       APEC Energy Ministers will meet in Busan, South Korea through August 28.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)/ Construction Work Done Q2/ Monthly CPI Indicator (July)/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (July)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Moldova.  In honor of the day, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will visit the country to celebrate.

·       Spain’s Tomatina food fight festival takes place in Buñol, Spain, the world’s biggest food fight.  More than 20,000 people come to the town (whose population is 9,000) to throw tomatoes at each other.  In 2015 (the last time they checked), an estimated 320,000 pounds of tomatoes were thrown.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence SEP

·       Hungary Gross Wage (June)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (August)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (July)/ Jobseekers Total (July)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (August)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ Corporate Profits (June)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Real Wage Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (July)/ GDP (June)/ GDP (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Tanzania's electoral commission will announce which presidential candidates are confirmed to run in the country's Oct. 29 general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino will lead a business delegation to Brazil and meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner in Miami, Florida.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August)/ Net Payrolls (July)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Current Account Q2/ Average Weekly Earnings (June), Earnings: CIBC and Toronto-Dominion

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/23)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Pending Home Sales (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/22)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/27), Earnings: Dell, Marvell, Autodesk, Pernod Ricard

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australia and Indonesia will hold a "two-plus-two" meeting of their foreign and defense ministers in Canberra. The biannual forum last took place in 2023, when current Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto attended as defense minister. This year's meeting will be the ninth since the format was launched in 2006 to strengthen ties between the two neighbors.

·       Bitcoin Asia 2025, one of Asia’s largest conferences, begins in Hong Kong.  Speakers are due to include Eric Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Yamaguchi, Japan.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/23)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (August)

·       Central Bank of South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q2/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure/ Private Capital Expenditure Q2

·       Malaysia PPI (July)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (July)

·       India Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Earnings: RHB Banking Group, Axiata Group, CITIC Securities, China Southern

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark though August 30.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank releases its July Monetary Policy Meeting minutes

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (July)/ Loans to Companies (July)/ Loans to Households (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)/ Economic Sentiment (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Industrial Sentiment (August)/ Selling Price Expectations (August)/ Services Sentiment (August)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/       Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Confidence Index (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/22)

·       Italy Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Industrial Sales (June)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (July)

·       Greece Total Credit (July)

·       Spain Business Confidence (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (July)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, August 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States will end the de minimis tariff exemption for small-value imported parcels under $800.

·       Elon Musk faces a court deadline to answer a US Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit over allegations he improperly benefited from a late disclosure of his purchases of shares of Twitter in 2022.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (July)/ Nominal Budget Balance (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP Implicit Price Q2/ Budget Balance (June), Earnings: Laurentian Bank

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (July)/ Personal Income (July)/ Personal Spending (July)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (July)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Chicago PMI (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/29)

·       Chile Copper Production (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Cement Production (July)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand's Constitutional Court will rule on whether to remove Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from her position over a leaked phone call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, in which she referred to a Thai army commander as the "opposite side." In the wake of the leak, she was criticized for showing a lack of responsibility and integrity, as well as putting the country's sovereignty at risk.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Japan for an annual summit with his counterpart, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The two are seeking to bolster trade and security cooperation.

·       Samoa holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD releases quarterly earnings.  Markets are watching closely to get a deeper sense of how intense the growing electric car sector is dealing with price competition hitting new levels.  Also reporting today will be Alibaba, the Bank of China, China Construction Bank, the Agricultural Bank if China, ICBC, COSCO Shipping, China Eastern, and Air China.

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index

·       South Korea Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (July)/ Jobs/applications ratio (July)/ Tokyo CPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Construction Orders (July)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Australia Housing Credit (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Export Prices (July)/ PPI (July)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Private Consumption (July)/ Private Investment (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (July)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       India Government Budget Value (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/15)/ Deposit Growth (August/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/22)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will attend the 25th Franco-German Council of Ministers in Berlin, Germany.  It is expected that the two countries will discuss joint defense projects and trade negotiations.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Gymnich, Germany, from August 30.

·       Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha will visit Slovenia for bilateral talks.

·       Today is the anniversary of the Slovak National Uprising, which took place in 1944 against the Nazis.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will deliver remarks at the Crusos Europeos de Verano in Pamplona, Spain.

·       Great Britain Car Production (July)

·       Germany Retail Sales (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Unemployed Persons (August)/ Unemployment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (August)/ Bavaria CPI (August)/ Brandenburg CPI (August)/ Hesse CPI (August)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (August)/ Saxony CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (July)

·       France Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Household Consumption (July)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ PPI (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Current Account (June)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (August)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (August)

·       Greece PPI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Ukraine Current Account (July)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (July)          

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, August 30, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor, commemorating the referendum that took place in 1999, giving the island nation greater autonomy from Indonesia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial  Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkey Victory Day, also known as Turkish Armed Forces Day.  It celebrates Turkey’s victory over the Greeks in 1922 at the Battle of Dumlupinar.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China, hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to attend.

·       Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

June 22 - 29, 2025

The US Attacked Iran – Now What?, The NATO Summit Convenes, Followed by the European Council, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Defense Ministers Meet, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before Congress

As we write this, the world is waking up to learn that President Donald Trump ordered the attack on three Iranian nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – and, reportedly, a number of other strategic Iranian sites.   According to Trump Administration officials, the attacks “obliterated” the targets, but US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Daniel Caine said it was “way too early” to comment on whether Iran retained nuclear capabilities.  Damage assessments are being conducted by the US and Isreal, and we are likely to learn a lot more of the effectiveness of the attacks in the coming days. 

Additionally, as Israeli Defense Force (IDF) sources have said, “it is too early to tell” if Iran moved any fissile materials from Fordow before the strike.  What we are watching for now are three things:

1. What will Iran do to retaliate against the US?  Will they attack US forces stationed in the region (there are close to 50,000 US troops stationed at a number of bases in the Middle East).

2. Will Iran move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz (as Iran’s Parliament voted to do this morning), paralyzing energy shipping and further raising tensions in the region with Gulf State nations.  Only the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can make that decision, which ultimately would severely damage Iran’s already brittle economy.

3. Will Iran dare to activate suspected sleeper cells in the US and elsewhere to attack?  Do they even have such cells in the US?

As all this takes place, the 2025 NATO Summit begins on Tuesday in the Netherlands, bringing together the leaders of all the NATO members, including President Trump.  Other non-NATO heads of state have been invited to attend, including the Prime Ministers of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Ukraine, as well as the Presidents of South Korea, the European Council, and the European Commission. 

There are two things’ markets should watch at the Summit:  Will Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee get a chance to talk with Trump on the sidelines to secure trade agreements (something they had hoped to do at the G7 but did not happen as Trump left the summit early to return to Washington to deal with Iran).  And second, will NATO members collectively agree to an increase in defense spending targets from 2% of GDP to 3.5% for defense spending, with an additional 1.5% for infrastructure spending, bringing the level to 5% of GDP?  And by what timeline – 2030 or 2035?

European leaders will then roll into a European Council meeting on Thursday, where the Middle East will again dominate the agenda, as will defense spending, and trying to figure out a trade agreement with the US.

Elsewhere in the world this week, the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be meeting in China. The SCO is composed of Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, and again, the situation in Iran will dominate the agenda.  But it is expected that the SCO may touch on ongoing border tensions between India and China, ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India, and Ukraine. 

In Washington this week, the two big events will be the US Senate’s continued efforts to hammer out a compromise among Senate Republicans on President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.  Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) has said he wants to bring it to a vote this week but we believe it likely to slip into next week as Congress is going to be distracted by President Trump’s Iran action along with real disagreements on the substance of the bill, mostly around state and local taxes (SALT) exemptions and Section 899 which would give the US Treasury the power to place tough taxes on foreign corporations from countries that place heavy taxes on US corporations.

The second event markets are going to be watching closely is Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s testimony Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee on the state of the economy.  With all that is going on geopolitically and with President Trump’s tariffs, these should be lively hearings (to say the least).

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond Powell’s testimony, markets will be listening closely to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s comments Monday before the EU Parliament and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony before the House of Lords. 

In the US, the May PCE report is released this week, as well as Q1 GDP numbers. And the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is out on Tuesday.

In Asia, Japan’s June CPI is released on Friday, as well as the Bank of Japan’s minutes from their last meeting on Wednesday.  China’s May Industrial profits are out on Friday, too.

In Europe,  the Eurozone’s June economic sentiment reports are out on Friday, Germany’s Ifo Survey on Tuesday, and France and Spain’s June CPI on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is scheduled to visit Israel.  He will address the Israeli Knesset (NOTE: Johnson’s trip may be canceled because of the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Iran.)

·       Today is the tentative date Telsa will launch their new Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a monetary policy insights panel before the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections take place.  There are 127 seats representing the 14 million residents of Tokyo open for election.

·       Today is the 60th anniversary of Japan and South Korea establishing diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Business Summit begins in Luanda, Angola.  More than 1,500 attendees including a number of African government leaders, are expected to attend the three-day event.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) followed by consultations..

·       The 7th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting begins in Milan, Italy.  The Meeting is also the 27th meeting of the Committee for Environmental Protection — running until July 3.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair  Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy and banking at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds a virtual discussion with business and community leaders on "the effects that labor market conditions, inflation, and interest rates have on them.”  The event is being hosted by SUNY Schenectady Community College.  New York Fed President John Williams will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

·       Monday, June 24, 12:10 p.m. Central Time – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Milwaukee Business Journal Mid-Year Outlook 2025.

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash/ Existing Home Sales (May)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Paraguay PPI (May)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India is expected to re-open its airspace to commercial Pakistani planes following the recent fighting between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  The agenda includes an update and discussion of the situation in Ukraine, China and European security issues, the situation in the Middle East and Libya, and the situation in Georgia.

·       The EU-Canada Summit takes in Brussels.  Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with EU President Ursala von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa.  The topics will cover the current geopolitical situation, economy and trade, and a number of sectorial issues they can improve on cooperation.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through June 24. the Council will seek to reach a general approach on a regulation on a forest monitoring framework for resilient European forests. The proposal aims to establish a high-quality forest monitoring system to track progress on achieving EU targets and policy objectives concerning forests.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through June 24 in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Net Zero Delivery Summit, hosted by the City of London Corporation, part of London Climate Action Week, takes place in London. Speakers include Lord Mayor of the City of London Alastair King.

·       Today is Victory Day in Estonia, a national holiday celebrating when the country sought independence following the end of World War I.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives  an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (April)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)

·       Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April & May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya this will be followed by consultations. In the afternoon there will be a briefing on non-proliferation. 

·       The Internet Governance Forum Summit takes place in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the deadline for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to present a process for adding additional tariffs on auto parts.

·       The New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on monetary policy before the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025.

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City holds a virtual discussion on "the current state of the agricultural economy and future prospects, part of its "Fed Listens" series.  Speakers will include Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr and Jeff Schmid, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the “State of the Nation's Housing 2025" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (June)

·       Canada Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI Median (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)

·       USA Current Account Q1/ Redbook (June/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ House Price Index (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index/ Money Supply (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/20)

·       Chile PPI (May)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In China, the 14th National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee (NPCSC) - China’s senior legislative body -  convenes for its 16th session, running until Friday.  The committee will review draft revisions to the Public Security Administrative Penalty Law, the Law against Unfair Competition, the Maritime Law, the Fisheries Law, and the Civil Aviation Law, as well as draft laws on responding to public health emergencies, and promoting publicity and education on the rule of law.

·       The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) AIIB begins a three-day annual meeting in Beijing to elect a successor to founding President Jin Liqun. He is due to step down next January after serving two five-year terms from the bank's inception. The favorite to replace him is China's nominee, Zou Jiayi, who is one of the more than 200 elite members of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee.

·       The annual summer meeting of the World Economic Forum returns to Tianjin, near Beijing. Among the speakers at the three-day forum are Richard Liu, founder and chairman of Chinese online retailer JD.com; Dai Houliang, chairman of China National Petroleum; and Faisal Alibrahim, the minister of economy and planning of Saudi Arabia. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who is on a first visit to China as prime minister from June 22 to 26, will also speak at the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Index (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 NATO Summit begins in the Hague, Netherlands.  The primary focus of the Summit was expected to be the War in Ukraine.  However with the US bombing of Iran this past weekend, the Iranian issue will likely dominate talks.  Additionally, a number of non-NATO member leaders will be attendance including Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.  Both Ishiba and Lee are hoping to use the opportunity to move forward with a trade deal with US President Trump.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The primary topic will be preparations for the upcoming June European Council meetings on June 26-27.

·       The German 2025 budget will be published by the cabinet.  The government has been operating on a pro-rata provision budget due to the early elections.

·       The French far-left La France Insoumise Party is expected to file a no-confidence motion against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives remarks on Britain’s return to the gold standard in 1925.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives remarks at the NIESR Conference in London.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives remarks that the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum in London.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and takes Q&A at the XLII APIE seminar organized by Association of Spanish Financial journalists and Universidad Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks on the occasion of the conferral of the De Sanctis Award "Europa" to her in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025 in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a dinner speech followed by Q&A at SSM-Senior Forum organized by A&O Shearman in Königstein, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (June)/ Ifo Current Conditions (June)/ Ifo Expectations (June)

·       Poland Retail Sales (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Great Britain BoE Greene Speech/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Children and Armed Conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        The Organization of American States hosts its annual assembly in Antigua and Barbuda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

·       The  Federal Reserve holds a meeting "to discuss proposed revisions to the Board's supplementary leverage ratio standards."

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/20)/New Home Sales (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/20)/ Building Permits Final (May)          

·       Brazil Current Account (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (May)

·       Argentina Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers Meeting will take place in Qingdao, China.  The attendees will be from member countries China, Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.

·       The ASEAN IA Summit takes place in Kuala Lumpur.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s invasion of South Korea.

·       Nikkei and the Financial Times are co-hosting Energy Transition Summit Asia 2025 in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Fukushima, Japan.

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index Final (April)/ Leading Economic Index Final (April)

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (June/13)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Trade union workers at the Port of Antwerp are expected to either strike or run a work-slow down as they seek increased pay and better work conditions.   The Antwerp Port is already significantly backlogged.

·       Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating when the country declared its independence from the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991.

·       Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking when the country when a plebiscite was held and 95% of voters voted for independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a keynote speech at the UK Finance Digital Innovation Summit in London.

·       Euro Area New Car Registrations (May)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       France Consumer Confidence (June)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (May)/ Jobseekers Total (May)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Russia Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mozambique Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Global

·       The Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

·       Today is the 80th Anniversary of the first 50 countries signing the Charter of the United Nations, effectively found the United Nations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds its 2025 Policy Summit, beginning at 9 a.m., with the theme "Building Strong and Sustainable Communities.”  Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will speak on June 26th.  Governor Lisa Cook will speak on June 27 at 9:15 a.m.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy before the New York Association for Business Economics.

·       Brazil BCB Monetary Policy Report/ IPCA mid-month CPI (June)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/21)/ PCE Prices Q1/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/25)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (April)/ Wholesale Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (June)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

·       Malaysia PPI (May)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (May)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council meets in Brussels through June 27.  EU leaders will gather to discuss a host of issues ranging from Ukraine to the situation in Iran, EU competitiveness, and the situation in Gaza.

·       Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank holds a General Council Meeting (virtual).

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the British Chamber of Commerce Global Annual Conference in London.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives the opening speech at the 150th anniversary of Münchner Opernfestspiele in Munich, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a virtual the Deutsche Bank Forum 2025 being held in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel speaks and participates on a panel discussion at the 'Wirtschaftsrat der CDU' Finanzmarktklausur in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUL

·       Hungary Current Account Q1

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech/ CBI Distributive Trades (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Iran Local Elections

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madagascar Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q2/ PPI (May)

Friday, June 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan followed by consultations, and in the afternoon is scheduled to have a briefing United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations.

·       The 24th Bank for International Settlements Annual Conference will be held in Basel, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams moderates a session featuring keynote remarks from Professor Carmen Reinhart at the 24th Bank of International Settlements Annual Conference.

·       The Federal Reserve releases the results of its annual bank stress tests.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June)/ Bank Lending (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

·       USA Personal Income (May)/ PCE Price Index (May)/ Core PCE Price Index (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Canada GDP (April)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

·       El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Paraguay Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Uruguay Current Account Q1

·       Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou leads a delegation of students on a tour of China.

·       Today is National Unity Day in Tajikistan, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Tokyo CPI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (May)/ Current Account Final Q1

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (May)

·       Singapore Export Prices (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ PPI (May)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

·       Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 18th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations begins its two-day annual council meeting in Warsaw, where policymakers and thought leaders will gather to discuss pressing global challenges

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (May)/ Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (May)

·       France Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (May)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/             Business Confidence (June)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)

·       Italy Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Industrial Sales (April)/       PPI (May)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

·       Euro Area           Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence Final (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Foreign Ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are scheduled to sign a peace agreement in the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The deal will result in Rwandan forces to withdraw from eastern Congo and the creation of a regional economic integration framework.

·       Today is Djibouti Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Ukraine.

·       Today is Armed Forces Day in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs a panel discussion at Petersberger Sommerdialog 2025 in Königswinter (Bonn), Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The G7 Leaders’ Summit Convenes, US and Chinese Trade Negotiations Begin Yet Again, Trump’s Birthday Parade, Pope Leo’s First Address to the US, and China’s Inflation Figures

June 8 - 15, 2025

The big geopolitical event of the week is the G7 Leaders’ Summit being held in Alberta, Canada.  This will be President Trump’s first trip to Canada since being re-elected and since he placed tough tariffs on the country.   

The overall G7 agenda, as outlined by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, is to focus on several broad themes – “protecting our communities and the world, building energy security and accelerating digital transition, and securing the partnerships of the future.”  But the real focus will be trade and how to get to an end-game with the Trump tariff changes as well as discussing the opportunities and threats of AI. 

But a lot of other major action will be taking place at the Summit including a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump – the first meeting between the two leaders since their disastrous meeting at the White House on February 28th. 

On Monday, US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for talks with Chinese trade negotiators to try to and get trade talks back on track.   The meetings are the result of a telephone conversation between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week.  There had been a 90-day pause on Trump’s China tariffs but that quickly fell apart after the US added new guidance on preventing Chinese semiconductor chips to be sold in the US. 

Elsewhere this week, two big no-confidence votes are being held on Wednesday.  The first in Poland on the heels of last week’s presidential elections.  The Polish Parliament is likely to hold a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Donald Tusks government and there is a fairly good chance it will go through, forcing new parliamentary elections.  

Meanwhile, Israel’s opposition parties will try to force a no-confidence vote in a bid to force new elections and push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office.  Current polling suggest Netanyahu would lose if elections were held today as many voters appear unhappy with the ongoing Gaza war.  Additionally, two of Netanyahu’s coalition parties – both representing ultra-Orthodox voters – are threatening to withdraw their support unless there is a last-minute agreement giving an exemption to ultra-Orthodox men from military service.

Back in Washington, the US Senate will continue to work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill – as a number of House Republican members who voted for the measure are now publicly expressing regret as the bill is now expected to add as much as $4 trillion to the federal deficit.   But the big news was Elon Musk’s extraordinary public spat with President Trump which began when Musk tweeted out his disgust with the size and shape of OBBA and then went on to criticize Trump – and even call for his impeachment – for supporting the bill in its current format.   We expect the US Senate to move to change a number of market-sensitive provisions – including Section 899 which would allow Treasury to place retaliatory taxes on foreign companies as well as the state and local (SALT) provisions which the House raised to $40,000 but is facing a host of criticism from Republicans.  We continue to hold the view reaching a final deal on OBBA is going to take much longer than the Trump Administration is hoping for – July 4th is the stated goal – and is likely to be scaled back in order to get enough Republican support. 

And finally, this week will see two big events in the US this Saturday: President Trump’s birthday parade on Friday in Washington that will simultaneously celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US Army.   The parade will take place along Constitution Avenue in Washington.   The second big event will be in Chicago where newly elected Pope Leo XIV will address via video to a sold-out (40,000+) Rate Stadium  (where the Holy Father’s beloved White Sox play).  This will be the Holy Father’s first official address to the United States. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the big events of the coming week are – aside from the G7 Meeting – China’s trade data and inflation figures and the US’s May CPI print.

The US CPI is out on Wednesday and PPI is out on Friday – both of which will be an important indicator for how the Federal Reserve may move during the FMOC meeting the following week and the overall impact of the Trump tariffs since Liberation Day.  Also out in the US this week is the Univeristy of Michigan June consumer sentiment survey on Friday.  There are no Fed speeches this week as the Fed has gone into their “Blackout Period” in advance of the FMOC meeting.

In Europe, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be delivering the Spending Review to Parliament on Wednesday, revealing the spending priorities of  Prime Minister Starmer’s government.  It will include plans for spending more than £600 billion on public services – 1/5 of the total British economy.  In the EU this week, there are a large number of European Central Bank speeches including ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking in Beijing. 

Bringing it back to Asia, Japan releases the May Economy Watchers Survey on Monday and the PPI on Wednesday.   But markets are mostly focused on China’s inflation and trade figure releases on Monday to get a sense how deeply the Trump tariffs have impacted the economy. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Global

·       Today is Pentecost, a major feast in the Christian church marking the 50th day of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy is set to hold a Constitutional referendum and run-off elections for regional elective office through Monday.  The Constitutional referendum concerns changes to the law on the acquisition of Italian citizenship for foreign residents and repeals some provisions on employment as passed by the 2025 Jobs Act law.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the 2025 UN Ocean Conference Leaders dinner in Paris, France.  She will speak at the conference tomorrow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a panel discussion at the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference of Hrvatska Narodna Banka in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 9, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Ocean Conference begins in Nice, France and runs through June 13.  This is the first UN Ocean Conference since the 2022 conference in Lisbon (Portugal). It will also be the first conference since the historic Agreement on Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, also known as the High Seas Treaty.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through June 13.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for renewed trade talks with China. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead the Chinese delegation.

·       The Trump Administration’s response to a Federal Appeals Court regarding tariff authority is due to be filed.

·       President Trump’s travel ban on 12 countries goes into effect.  The countries include Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

·       Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will testify before the Federal Supreme Court in a case in which he is accused of plotting a coup in 2022. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve goes into its “Blackout” period in advance of the Open Market Committee meetings June 17-18. There are no speeches by any Fed Governors until after the meetings.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia celebrates the King’s Birthday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q1

·       Japan Current Account (April)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ Bank Lending (May)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (May)

·       China Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will receive NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in London.  Rutte He will also give a speech at Chatham House and visit Sheffield Forgemasters with the Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei visits Spain for bilateral talks.  Milei then travels on to Israel for meetings.

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov travels to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  They are expected to discuss preparations for the upcoming Eurasian Economic Forum on June 26027 in Minsk.

·       London Tech Week begin and runs through June 13. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       It is Whit Monday in Europe.  Financial markets in Germany, Norway, and Switzerland are closed.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech on the rule of law at the Italian Court in Rome, Italy.

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) followed by consultations. 

·       Today is the 90th anniversary of the founding of Alcoholics Anonymous.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds confirmation hearings for Jacob Helberg for undersecretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment; Andrew Puzder for U.S. ambassador to the European Union; Paul Kapur for assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs; and Benjamin Black for CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.

·       New Jersey holds its gubernatorial primary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (May)/ Redbook (June/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (May)

·       El Salvador PPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha through June 12.

·       Pakistan’s finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, will deliver a budget to parliament against the backdrop of the country’s IMF loan program.

·       The Bloomberg Invest Conference begins in Hong Kong and goes through June 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index/ NAB Business Confidence (May)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (May)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India in Brussels.

·       The Europlace Conference is being held in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at the Jacques Delors event "Matching savings and investments: The role of banks and capital markets in financing Europe’s future", in Berlin.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a presentation at the 2025 IIF European Chief Risk Officer Forum (virtual).

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s report on financial stability.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives a speech at the ECB Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (May)/ Claimant Count Change (May)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (April)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts 

·       Italy Industrial Production (April)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (April)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (May)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (May)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (April)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Argentine President Javier Milei in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (May)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican airline Aero México will likely see flight attendants go on strike for higher wages.

·       Bloomberg hosts its Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/06)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (May)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (April)

·       Canada Building Permits (April)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Congress holds hearing to present Articles of Impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte.  The lower house in February impeached Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, on accusations that included budget anomalies, amassing unusual wealth and an alleged threat to the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the first lady, and the House Speaker.

·       Malaysia will host the ASEAN Plus Three and East Asia Summits.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Japan PPI (May)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       India M3 Money Supply (May/30)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Polish lawmakers hold vote of confidence called by Prime Minister Donald Tusk after the defeat of a political ally in the June 1 presidential ballot with the election of Karol Nawrocki.

·       UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the Spending Review to Parliament.

·       The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin and runs through June 12.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations chair Carl Bildt, Congressional Leadership Fund former president Dan Conston and Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen are among the speakers at the two-day Brussels Forum 2025, which will focus on transatlantic political and economic issues

·       VivaTEch!, Europe’s largest startup and tech event, begins in Paris and runs through June 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a presentation at the People's Bank of China in Beijing, China.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote speech followed by fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2025 in Berlin, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote presentation at the 2025 Government Borrowers Forum in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollo gives a video message at the European Payments Council's General Assembly in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta gives a speech at the Bank of Finland and SUERF Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at the Global Investment Management Summit  in London.

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Construction Output (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Auto Production (May)/ Auto Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s opposition parties will seek to dissolve the Knesset in an effort to bring an early election.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition are threatening to leave over policies forcing conscription of ultra-Orthodox young men into the army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa's National Assembly is due to vote on the government's proposed fiscal framework, the first of three pieces of legislation to adopt the country's 2025 budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April)/ SACCI Business Confidence (May)

Thursday, June 12, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled in the morning to hold a briefing on Yemen, followed by consultations.  In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

·       World Bank President Ajay Banga will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appear in front of the House Armed Services Committee for a hearing on the Defense Department’s 2026 budget request.

·       Today is Chaco Armistice Day in Paraguay.  The public holiday commemorates the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (June/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/31)/ PPI (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/12)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/11)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (April)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (May)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan is expected to hold is annual Wanan Civil Defense Drills in the Kinmen Islands.

·       In Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Auto Expo begins and runs through Sunday. The event, organized by the mainland's China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, aims to help at drive the global expansion of the Chinese automotive industry, which is currently gripped by a brutal price war between electric vehicle manufacturers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (May)

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (June/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ RBA Jacobs Speech

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q1

·       India Inflation Rate (May)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss a general approach on a directive to harmonize certain aspects of insolvency law across the EU, protection of adults, and the fight against impunity (dealing with Russia war crimes).

·       The International Energy Administration holds a two-day conference on global energy efficiency in Brussels.

·       Today is Russia Day in Russia.  The national holiday originally celebrated the fall of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union.  But its meaning has now been shifted by President Putin to celebrating the country’s modernization.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a  keynote speech at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel visits and speaks at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.  Later in the day, Schnabel will moderate a panel entitled “Funding the future: Strategies for supporting innovation and growth” at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a keynote speech at the IMF-WB annual high-level Conference for Senior Supervisors in Washington, DC.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (May)/ GDP (April)/ Goods Trade Balance (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (May)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/06)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (April)/ Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q1/ Manufacturing Sales (April)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)/ Wholesale Sales (April)

·       USA Michigan Current Conditions Prel (June)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectation/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (May)

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tokyo, Japan, campaigning for Tokyo’s metropolitan assembly elections being held on June 22 begin.  The race is seen as a key political test for Prime Minister Ishida in advance of Japan’s upper house elections later this summer.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (May)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (April)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Industrial Production (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (April)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss IT infrastructure, the Schengen report, migration issues, and EU internal security.

·       The 2025 Paris Air Forum will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Romania Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Hungary Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (April)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (April)/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Elderson Speech

·       Greece Construction Output Q1

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (April)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Global

·       Today is Eid-e-Chadir, celebrated by Shia Muslims on the 18th day of the Islamic month of Dhul Hijjah, the final month of the lunar based Muslim calendar.  The religious holiday is named after the event in which Shia Muslims believe that the cousin of the Prophet Muhammad, Ali ibn Abi Talib, was appointed as a leader and religious authority after the Prophet.

·       Pope Leo XIV will speak virtually at a youth event being held at White Sox Stadium in Chicago.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating when in 1982 the Island was liberated from Argentinian occupation.

·       Today is President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday.  The day will be celebrated with a large military parade which will also celebrate the US Army’s 250 anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Alberta, Canada and goes through June 17.  In advance of the meeting, the 50th G7 meeting, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is chairing the Summit, announced the priorities for the meeting will include: “1) Protecting our communities and the world—strengthening peace and security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, and improving joint responses to wildfires. 2) Building energy security and accelerating the digital transition—fortifying critical mineral supply chains and using artificial intelligence and quantum to unleash economic growth, and 3) Securing the partnerships of the future—catalyzing enormous private investment to build stronger infrastructure, create higher-paying jobs, and open dynamic markets where businesses can compete and succeed.

·       It is Father’s Day, celebrated globally. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agricultural Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trade Talks and the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting Dominate the Week, Trump to Speak to Putin Again on Ukraine Ceasefire, and More Trade Negotiations in Washington This Week

May 18 - 25, 2025

Trade will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week, both in the US and in Europe.  First, markets will watch closely as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer holds a high-stakes summit with EU leaders in London on Monday, focused on improving trade as well as locking in ways to work together on mutual defense development.  Ultimately, the talks are a shift back from Brexit and, if successful, will be the third major trade deal locked in by Starmer in a month (the other two being with India and the US).

In the US, senior trade officials from India and Japan will be meeting with senior Trump trade officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an effort to reach new trade agreements.  For the Japanese, this coming week is important for another reason:  The US Treasury Department’s Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is expected to present President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent with a new review of Nippon Steel’s $15 billion bid for US Steel, a deal blocked by then-President Joe Biden and initially opposed by then-candidate Donald Trump.  However, since then, Trump has said he is open to finding a deal for Nippon Steel to own a large–but–not–controlling stake in US Steel.

Sticking with trade for a moment, the other big talks this week come with the visit of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for meetings with President Trump.  The primary purpose of the meeting is an attempt to reset the relationship between the two countries, which have soured in recent months.  But both leaders will discuss trade (trade between the US and South Africa came in at $21 billion in 2024).  However, the Trump Administration has vocally condemned South Africa’s land reform policy and efforts to get the International Court of Justice to bring war crime charges against Israel.   Last week, a group of white South Africans were granted refugee status in the US by the Trump Administration. 

We will be watching closely for the read-out of President Trump’s expected telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week.  Trump, who is reportedly getting frustrated with Putin’s lack of seriousness about moving toward a cease-fire in Ukraine, is expected to press the Russian president to move on a deal.  However, Russian officials in Moscow are letting it be known in advance of the call that Putin is going to present a new list of demands to Trump for a cease-fire to be considered – a move that is likely to further frustrate Trump.

Turning to Europe, EU foreign ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss Israel and Gaza.  Specifically, EU trade ties with Israel are being reviewed as there has been a free trade agreement (FTA) in place for more than 25 years that requires Israel to respect “human rights and democratic principles” – something the Netherlands is asking the EU to review due to ongoing military action in Gaza. 

Also, there was an important election in Europe this weekend: Romania held a run-off election between centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan and right-wing/pro-Russia nationalist George Simion.  Simion spoke of ending support for Ukraine and opposing NATO support for Ukraine and for confronting Russian aggression in general.  As of late Sunday night, it appears Dan has won a surprise victory.

We will be watching elections this coming week in Venezuela and Suriname.  By all appearances, the parliamentary elections being held in Venezuela next Sunday are already rigged to further entrench dictator Nicholas Maduro and his regime in power.  Opposition leader Maria Conrina Machado has called for a boycott by voters.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big event is the G& finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Banff, Canada.  Trade and tariffs are set to be the primary agenda item.  But support for Ukraine will also be up there as a major issue, too.

In terms of major reports this week, markets are anxiously watching for Thursday’s release of global flash PMIs to get a fuller sense of the impact of the Trump tariffs on manufacturing globally.

Also, next week, central banks and central bank governors will be busy.  The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Tuesday.  There are a slew of central bankers giving speeches in the US and elsewhere, and we will be hearing from central bank chiefs at the G7 meetings.  The European Central Bank releases minutes from their April meeting, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds their annual financial markets conference Monday through Wednesday, and there will be a number of US regional Fed presidents speaking there, too.

Other major data reports out this week include the UK inflation print, Germany’s Ifo survey, and France’s business confidence index. 

In Asia, China releases its April industrial production and retail sales on Monday, while Japan’s trade balance is out on Wednesday, and the national CPI is out on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week: 

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       House Republicans seek to find agreement tonight on the Reconciliation bill in order to bring it to floor for a vote this coming week before the Memorial Day recess week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23.

·       The IMF Middle East and north Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Q1 GDP.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 19, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will gather in Banff, Canada, for meetings through Thursday.

·       The 78th World Health Assembly begins in Geneva and runs through May 27.

·       The BRICS Energy Ministerial Meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over efforts to end the Ukraine War.  Putin is expected to deliver a new set of demands to Trump as conditions for a ceasefire.

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will visit the United States through May 22 for meetings with President Trump.  Ramaphosa and Trump are seeking to reset the US-South African relationship as well as negotiate a trade deal.

·       US-Japan trade negotiators meet again seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

·       US-Indian trade negotiators meet in Washington seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the US economic outlook at the Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary and Capital Markets Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives prepared remarks during “Policy Session 2: The Increasing Role of Nonbank Institutions in the Treasury and Money Markets" at the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       USA Fed Bostic Speech/ / CB Leading Index (April)/ Fed Logan Speech/ Fed Kashkari Speech

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (March)/ Imports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will conduct live-fire drills off the coast of Hong Kong through May 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (April)/ PPI Input & Output Q1

·       China House Price Index (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister hosts the UK-EU Summit in London.  Britain is hoping to reset a deal with the EU would boost defense and security cooperation, mutual immigration issues, and food regulation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors convenes in Banff, Canada.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives the commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony (Virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on growth in rural communities before the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome back remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in a moderated conversation before the Economic Club of Minnesota.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack give keynotes, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/17)/ / Fed Collins Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Computex Taipei, one of the biggest tech events in the world, begins in Taipei.

·       China may conduct military drills around Taiwan surrounding the one-year anniversary of President William Lai coming to office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (May)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q1/ Loan Growth (April)/ Infrastructure Output (April)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Belgium, EU foreign and defense ministers – the Foreign Affairs Council and Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) – will gather to meet in Brussles to discuss mutual security issues and the status of the Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Warsaw through May 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Barclays briefing in London.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at The Association for Financial Markets in Europe's 5th Annual European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded video interview during AsVis Sustainable Development Festival.

·        

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at BPFI National Banking Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Germany PPI (April)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ Central Government Debt (April)

·       Euro Area Current Account (March)/ Construction Output (March)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q1/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (March)/ Current Account (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar will host the fifth Qatar Economic Forum in Doha through May 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       South Africa National Budget

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Global

·       G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in Banff, Canada.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency releases its Global Critical Minerals Outlook report.

·       The BRICS Trade Ministers meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is expected to issue a new report of their review of Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel.  The deal, which was blocked by former U.S. President Joe Biden, had been under review after Trump ordered a reexamination. After the committee's recommendation, Trump has 15 days to make a decision on the deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a “Fed Listens" event as part of the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/16)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/16)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (March)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (March)/ Leading Indicator (April)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Credit Card Spending (April)/ Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (May)/ Lending Facility Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 60th meeting of the European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The 3rd EU-African Union ministerial meeting begins in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates as a discussant at JEEA-FBBVA Lecture on "Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy" in Madrid, Spain.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Price Index (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Financial Stability Review/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece Current Account (March)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump due to hold a gala dinner for the top 220 holders of the Trump meme coin at the Trump National Golf Club just outside Washington in Northern Virginia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before Monetary Policy Implementation Workshop: “Unwinding Large Central Bank Balance Sheets" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       Mexico Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/17)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/16)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (May)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/21)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand’s Finance Minister Nicola Willis introduces the government’s new budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi will give a speech at a meeting of local business leaders in Miyazaki, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Machinery Orders (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/17)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ BOJ Noguchi Speech

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels.

·       In Spain, the Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum opens in Madrid. The two-day event will be hosted by Spanish Senate president Pedro Rollán Ojeda.

·       In Belgium, the Brussels Economic Forum will be held. Speakers include Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU commissioner for economy and productivity and for implementation and simplification; Renault chief Luca de Meo; and Electrolux chief Yannick Fierling.

·       The 5th Accession Conference in Albania will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank releases minutes from their last rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 6th International Forum Expansión “The future is decided aquí - Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics, and Technology” in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives the dinner speech at the Naturalis Biodiversity Center on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Chief  Economist Huw Pill gives keynote speech at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Annual Economics Conference 2025, titled ‘Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts’, in Vienna.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)/ BoE Dhingra Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

·       France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the international Anatolian Phoenix exercise at the 3rd Main Jet Base Command in Konya, Turkey.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (March)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference, cosponsored by New York University's Graduate School of Arts and Science, New York University's Stern School of Business, and the University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute (Virtual)

·       Chile PPI (April)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Canada Retail Sales (March)

·       USA New Home Sales (April)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/23)/ Building Permits Final (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Vietnam through May 25.

·       In Malaysia, the ruling People's Justice Party leadership elections are set to conclude, with attention focused on the competitive race for the deputy presidency between the incumbent, Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli, and Nurul Izzah Anwar, the prime minister's daughter. The outcome will shape the party's internal dynamics ahead of Malaysia's next general election, which must be held by February 2028..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (April)

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

·       Japan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Index (March)

·       Singapore     Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (May/09)/ Deposit Growth (May/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a  lecture on "Inflation and disinflation in the euro area" at EMU Lab (European University Institute Florence) in Florence, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech on "Finanzielle Bildung und Geldpolitik" at the Internationaler Demokratiepreis Bonn e.V. (IDP) "Demokratie lebt vom Mitmachen" event in Bonn, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       France Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador’s newly re-elected President, Daniel Noboa, will be inaugurated.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Quinag visits Indonesia for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Venezuela, parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled to be held.  However, the elections are widely anticipated to be rigged to keep the regime of President Maduro further entrenched in power.

·       Suriname holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Baccalaureate speech at the Princeton University graduation.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Kuala Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day – a national holiday – marking the day on the Hebrew calendar when the city was unified under Israeli rule after the 1967 War.

·       Iraq's electoral commission will open registration ahead of the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump Travels to the Middle East, Does the US and China Have a Trade Deal? Romania holds Contentious Presidential Run-Off Elections, and Markets Wait for Inflation Reports in the US, EU, UK, China, and Japan

May 11 - 18, 2025

It will be a busy week in the Middle East as President Trump prepares to head to Saudi Arabia, followed by the UAE and Qatar.  The President’s visits to the Gulf States are likely going to be good for US investment as the CEOs of Blackrock, Citi, Blackstone, Franklin Templeton, IBM, Qualcomm, and Alphabet (all of whom are speaking at the Saudi-US Investment Forum on May 13). 

Also accompanying the President will be the White House AI and Crypto Czar Davd Sacks as there is going to be significant discussion of cryptocurrencies. Interestingly, Trump is not planning on visiting Israel despite an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump has been seeking $1 trillion in increased Saudi investment in the US as well as another $1 trillion from the UAE.  We expect there will be major announcements of increased Saudi purchases of US defense equipment and a likely bolstering of US-Saudi/US-Gulf State security arrangements, too.

On Monday, we are expecting a joint statement from the US and China on trade talks in Geneva this weekend.  We note that it is not often we see joint statements between the US and China on just about anything so to hear one is coming on something as controversial as trade is highly unusual.  The White House and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the talks, have held close hold on any details of what was discussed or agreed to, as markets are monitoring the situation very closely for a sign of abatement of trade tensions overall.

In Europe this week, elections are the top event markets will be watching.  Romania will be holding a second round of highly contentious presidential elections.  In the first round on May 9th, hard-right nationalist George Simion won, and current polls suggest he will win the run-off.  Other elections this week in Europe include the first round of presidential elections in Poland and Portugal holding parliamentary elections.

Looking at the global financial radar screen this week, markets are eagerly awaiting a number of key inflation reports to gauge the impact of the Trump tariffs. In the US, the core CPI print for April is out on Tuesday, retail sales figures on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday. Intermixed with this are a number of Federal Reserve Governors speeches, including Fed Chair Jay Powell on Thursday.

In Europe, the EU Q1 GDP estimates and employment figures are out on Thursday, Germany’s April CPI is out on Wednesday, and the May ZEW Survey is out on Thursday, and the UK will be reporting labor figures on Tuesday, March GDP on Thursday.  

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from its April meeting on Friday, and we will see Japan’s Q1 GDP estimates on Saturday. Meanwhile, China will release April inflation numbers on Saturday. 

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US negotiators will continue nuclear talks (which began yesterday) in Muscat, Oman.

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicarmal legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula will travel to China through May 13 to discuss trade, particularly agricultural sales to gain market share from the US as a result of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US.

·       The 15th Annual China Business Conference, hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, begins in Washington, running until Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium, Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       USA WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

·       El Salvador PPI (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines holds elections for their House of Representatives and Senate.  More than 18,000 seats are set to be filled.

·       South Korea formally opens its election season, a three-week campaign for the presidency with the vote on June 3.

·       The Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (Capri) annual forum, this year titled Shaping Landscapes Towards a Sustainable Future for the Asia Pacific, in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook & Current (April)

·       Philippines General Elections

·       India Inflation Rate (April)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss banking union, the European Stability Mechanism, and other issues.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen opens the Strategic Dialogue on the European Defense Industry in Brussels.

·       European Council President Antonio Costa will travel to the Western Balkans through May 16 to meet with political leaders and co-host the Sixth European Political Community Summit in Tirana.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers through May 13 in Brussels.

·       EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through May 13 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the Bank of England Bank Watchers’ Conference at Kings Business School in London.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (March)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (March)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (March)/ Auto Production (April)/ Auto Sales (April)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

·       Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (March)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial begins in Berlin, Germany. 

·       The Arctic Council Ministerial meeting take place virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in his first foreign visit during his second term through May 16.  Joining Trump will be a number of US CEOs including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and Palantir’s Alex Karp. Interestingly, Trump is not visiting Israel on this trip.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce his new cabinet (TBC).

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will lead the Latin American delegation at the fourth meeting of foreign ministers of the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI (April)/ Redbook (May/10)/ Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/09)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese-French Economic and Financial Dialogue takes place in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ NAB Business Confidence (April)/ Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (March)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Council of Europe Committee of Ministers meets in Luxembourg through May 14.  Foreign Ministers for all 46 member states will attend and the primary agenda item is how to bolster support for Ukraine.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development holds their annual meeting through May 15 in London.

·       The Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025 begins at the Royal Danish Playhouse. The two-day gathering brings together leaders from business, politics, media and academia.

·       Eurovision 2025 begins in Basel, Switzerland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (April)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (April)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Current Account (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)/ ZEW Current Conditions (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US–Saudi Investment Forum takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, through May 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Finance Corporation’s Africa CEO Forum starts in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Unemployed Persons Q1

·       Ghana PPI (April)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (April)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

·       OPEC’s Monthly Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak that the  Award Ceremony for the Winners of the 2nd Edition of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Rabat, Morocco.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors (virtual).

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the California Bankers Association 25th Annual Conference and Directors Forum.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/09)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/09)/ Fed Daly Speech

·       Canada Building Permits (March)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/ Visitor Arrivals (March)

·       Japan PPI (April)

·       Australia Home Loans Q1/ Investment Lending for Homes Q1/ Wage Price Index Q1

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (March)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/02)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1

·       China New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of NATO Chiefs of Defense in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel on liquidity issues at "ECB Roundtable on Tokenisation: challenges and opportunities in a European context" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Sarah Breeden, Bank of England deputy governor, financial stability, gives a keynote speech at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association 39th Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam.

·        

·       Germany Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (March)

·       Hungary Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Current Account (March)

·       Serbia Current Account (March)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will host an informal foreign ministers meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Antalya through May 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on “Framework Review” at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at the  2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, and Richmond.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Manufacturing Sales (March)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/ PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/14)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ISE Economic Activity (March)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will hold high-level trade talks with his South Korean counterparts in Jeju, South Korea.

·       APEC Trade Ministers meet in Jeju.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May)/ Machine Tool Orders (April)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Employment Change (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (March)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Montenegro.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks, followed by Q&A at the France Payments Forum in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  video message on "Sustainability risks & financial market stability" at Green Finance Conference "Building bridges for financing a sustainable transition" in Vienna, Austria

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a keynote address at the 39th Annual General Meeting organized by ISDA in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member  Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat with François Villeroy de Galhau at Digital Currency II Conference organized by Banque de France, Toulouse School of Economics, Paris-Pantheon Assas and the ECB in Paris, France.

·       Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at the New Economics Foundation conference, EU macroeconomic policy in an age of shocks, in Brussels.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Q1/ Construction Orders Q1/ Construction Output (March)/ GDP (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Labour Productivity Q1

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (April)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia Building Permits (March)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Palestinian territories will observe Nakba Day, commemorating the anniversary of the beginning of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (March)/ Mining Production (March)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Nigeria Inflation Rate (April)/ Food Inflation (April)

Friday, May 16, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       BARKING SPEAKS

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (March)

·       USA Building Permits (April)/ Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech at the Nishinippon Seikei Konwakai meeting in Fukuoka, Japan.

·       South Korea Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q1

·       Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Services PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Political Community meets in Tirana, Albania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a Policymaker Panel: "Central Bank Communications and Uncertainty" at 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C.

·       France Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

·       Italy Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events

·       The Eurovision 2025 finals are held tonight.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Poland Presidential Election

·       Romania Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Iraq will host the 34th Arab League summit in Baghdad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 18, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The IMF Middle East and North Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Canadian PM Carney Meets with President Trump, Russia Celebrates Victory Day, While Chinese President Xi Meets with Russian President Putin, and the Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decide Interest Rates

This week marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe – V.E. Day. Great Britain, Russia, and other European nations will host parades and festivities to mark the historic occasion. Russia is offering Ukraine a short-term cease-fire on Friday to allow Russia to celebrate what it calls Victory Day. 

As part of the Victory Day celebration in Moscow, a number of leaders will attend in person, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Xi arrives on May for one-on-one meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a number of critical issues, including President Trump's tariffs, the war in Ukraine a, furthering China's support for Russia, and US efforts to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program. 

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will also meet with Putin on the sidelines of the celebrations. Brazil is chairing the BRICS this year and will discuss ways to strengthen the bloc in the face of Trump's riffs.

It will be a busy week in Europe.  At the Vatican, the Conclave of Cardinals begins to elect a new pope. 135 cardinals will gather in a closed meeting until they elect the successor to the late Pope Francis. As the Conclave begins, EU foreign ministers will be meeting in Warsaw to discuss how to strengthen European mutual security to counter Russia, as well as how to deal with the US tariffs on the EU.  And Friedrich Mertz is expected to be elected by the German Bundestag (Parliament) this week as the country's new Chancellor.

In Asia, we are watching the continued (and growing) tensions between Pakistan and India as a result of last month's attack in Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. India blames Pakistan for supporting the terrorists responsible for the attack and is threatening to attack Pakistan in response. While the US and EU work with both India and Pakistan to find a peaceful solution, we note that Iran is also trying to play a role. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to both countries this week to mediate. 

In Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, coming off a winning election last week, will meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs placed on Canada. We believe Trump is leaning toward lifting or at least temporarily suspending some of the tariffs. 

Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives coming to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and other senior Trump Administration officials seeking deals to get out from under Trump's tariffs.  Last week, meetings between Japanese and South Korean officials were held, but no deals were reached, and from what we have heard from numerous sources, the talks did not go well.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the US Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions will dominate the market's attention. The Fed—despite President Trump's demands for rate cuts—is expected to hold rates steady, while the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 24 basis points. 

Several other central bank and monetary policy-focused meetings will also be important to watch this week.  The European Central Bank is holding an off-site in Portugal, where we expect commentary on the impact of tariffs on the state of the European and global economy.  In Iceland, the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 on Friday and Saturday will host a slew of central bankers who will be giving major speeches and talking on panels, while at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference will also see a number of central bankers from various countries speaking.

 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday on the state of the international financial system.  It will certainly be a lively hearing as Bessent will face intense questions about the impact of the Trump tariffs on global markets in general and the US economy in particular. 

In the midst of all this, US March trade data will be out on Tuesday, Q1 data on Thursday, and productivity and labor data on Monday, while the April ISM services report will be out on Monday.  

In Europe, Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and trade balance figures on Thursday, while France reports its trade balance on Wednesday and industrial production on Tuesday. The Eurozone's April CPI is out on Thursday.

In Asia, China reports April trade figures on Friday, while the Bank of Japan releases its March monetary policy minutes on Thursday.  

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, Matsumoto Hisashi, will visit Algeria and Tunisia through May 6. 

·       China will hold its Golden Week holiday through May 5, and Japan will celebrate through May 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon holds the first phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial meetings take place in Vienna, Austria.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to have consultations on 1559 report (peace keeping in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) leaders to discuss tariffs.

·       The Milken Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California.  US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak at the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (April)/ ISM Services Employment (April)/ ISM Services New Orders (April)/ ISM Services Prices (April)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Kazakhstan through May 7.

·       South Korea celebrates the Birth of Buddha.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Singapore Retail Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Government Budget Value (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Milan will host of the 58th annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank’s Board of Governors.

·       In Great Britain, Members of the armed forces will march from Parliament Square, kicking off a week of 80th VE Day anniversary events, including a recitation of Winston Churchill’s victory speech as Big Ben strikes midday, and a military fly-past over central London.

·       In France, rail passengers are set to be hit by industrial action over the early May public holiday. The CGT-Cheminots, SNCF’s largest union, has called for an indefinite strike starting today, pushing for better pay for drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, today is an Early May bank holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (March)/ New Car Sales (April)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia PPI (April)

·       France New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (April)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Jordan PPI (March)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs.

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will vote on the nominations of  Michelle Bowman to be the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman for Supervision.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (April)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Redbook (May/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia hosts the 46th ASEAN summit.

·       South Korea celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Greenery Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (April)

·       Australia Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (April)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Friedrich Merz will be voted in as the new Chancellor.

·       The European Commission is expected to release plans for ending reliance on Russian oil and gas imports.

·       The Defense 24 Days security conference begins in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Athens International Defense and Security Expo begins in Athens, Greece.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank begins its two-day Governing Council of the ECB: annual retreat hosted by Banco de Portugal.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden will be a panelist at the Global Finance and Technology Networks’ 4th Point Zero Forum.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Romania PPI (March)

·       France Industrial Production (March)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the Denizkurdu-II-2025, or Sea Wolf-II-2025, naval exercise in the Black, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas through May 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The RealID requirements enter into force in the US for all air travel

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ Used Car Prices (April)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to participate in the Victory Day celebrations.

·       ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers meet in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q1/ Unemployment Rate Q1/ Labour Costs Index Q1/ Participation Rate Q1

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (April)/ Ai Group Construction Index (April)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       At the Vatican, the conclave to elect the next pope beings.

·       Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France, marking his first foreign trip in office.  Later in the day, he will then travel to Poland to meet with Prime Minister Donald Tusk

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Warsaw, Poland, through May 8.

·       In Denmark, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, co-hosted by Danish climate, energy and utilities minister Lars Aagaard, COP30 president-designate ambassador André Corrêa do Lago and outgoing COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. Discussions at the two-day meeting will revolve around implementation of last year’s COP29 plans and the key expectations for this year’s COP30

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of Valdimire Putin first being elected.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (April)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to New Delhi, India and Pakistan in an attempt to mediate between the two countries after Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the mandate of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will travel to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin.

·       The 3rd Latin Consumer Summit begins in Miami, Floria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (March)/ Car Production (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/08)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/07)

·       Canada Financial Stability Report

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will end his trip to Azerbaijan and visit Russia through May 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Motorbike Sales (April)IL

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the anniversary of “VE Day”, 80 years since the surrender of Nazi Germany.

·       Russia is expected to begin a 72-hour ceasefire with Ukraine.  But most observers do not believe Russian military forces will cease fighting.

·       The Ukrainian Parliament will vote to approve the US-Ukraine economic/critical minerals deal

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion on “Repo market: Turmoil at the core of the financial system?” at SUERF BAFFI Bocconi webinar.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (March)

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Halifax House Price Index (April)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (March)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Tuominen Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Azerbaijan for talks.  Netanyahu will discuss tensions with Turkey and Iran.

·       Turkish and Iraqi delegations will attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on Maximum Employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the Reykjavik Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University.  Later, he will speak on “Taylor Rules in Policy” before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference virtually.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on monetary policy research at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference: Finishing the Job and New Challenges, Stanford, California.  Governor Lisa Cook will also speak at the conference, giving a speech on Productivity Dynamics.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack will also speak before the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference on the topic of monetary policy.

·       The Federal Reserve Board holds the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome and opening remarks before the “Fed Listens: Perspectives from the Midwest" event.

·       US Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/09)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production & Exports (April)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Wages (April)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (March)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)/ Average Cash Earnings (March)/ Overtime Pay (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Vehicle Sales (April)/ Current Account Q1/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/25)/ Deposit Growth (April/25)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union celebrates Europe Day, marking the 1950 declaration by the Luxembourg-born French statesman Robert Schuman proposing a continent united in solidarity, considered the first step towards the EU being formed.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Nancy to sign a Franco-Polish economic and defense cooperation treaty.

·       Russia will celebrate Victory Day, marking the date when German forces surrendered to the Soviet army in 1945, commemorated with a military parade in Moscow’s Red Square and wreath-laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Attendees this year are set to include Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the keynote address at the Reykjavik economic conference 2025, hosted by Northwestern University and the Central Bank of Iceland.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges” of Harvard University.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (April)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicameral legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister, and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Take Center Stage, Vice President Vance Visits India,  Bilateral Trade Negotiations Continue in Washington, and the G7 and G20 Meet on the Sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings

April 20 - 27, 2025

A good portion of the world hopefully enjoyed a peaceful Easter holiday today, and many are taking the week for spring vacation.  However, in Washington, Easter weekend was the quiet before the economic storm as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund  (WB/IMF) are holding their annual Spring meetings.   The nation’s capital will be filled with finance ministers and central bankers from around the world (good luck getting restaurant reservations and avoiding driving downtown – the traffic jams during WB/IMF weeks are epic).  

But unlike most World Bank/IMF meetings, a good number of trade ministers will also be in Washington this week, seeking to work out bilateral trade deals with the US.  We are aware of meetings between US officials and representatives of Thailand, India, and Malaysia, and suspect more meetings are being arranged as we write this note.

As tariff negotiations ramp up, we will be watching for the WB/IMF annual economic report on Tuesday.  This report will likely help set the tone for the week and likely point to their expectation of significant economic disruption as a result of the Trump tariffs.  Both the G7 and G20 will be meeting on the sidelines of the WB/IMF meetings, and tariffs will be the paramount issue of discussion.

Also this week, US Vice President J.D. Vance will visit India for four days starting Monday.  Vance will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, and trade, mutual defense, and security issues will be on the agenda.  Modi will then travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for bilateral meetings with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to discuss both trade and a number of other issues of interest to India, including the US-Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine peace talks, and relations with China.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the WB/IMF meetings dominate the week.  But there are several important economic reports worth watching.  Global PMIs will be out on Wednesday, giving markets a slightly clearer sense of how tariffs might be disrupting markets.

In the US, markets are watching for the Beige Book release along with durable goods orders and housing market data.  In Asia, aside from Japan’s CPI numbers, China will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan rates.  In Europe, the ifo Survey in Germany and the consumer confidence reports for the Eurozone and the UK are out this week.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 20, 2025

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christian world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 21, 2025

Global

·       Financial markets in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy are closed for the Easter Monday holiday.

·       The World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will begin his visit to the United States with stops in Miami, New York, and Washington, D.C. 

·       Thailand will send a trade delegation to Washington to discuss tariffs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee is interviewed on CNBC.

·       USA CB Leading Index (March)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance will begin a four-day visit to India, which will include talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their discussions are likely to focus on a proposed bilateral trade pact and American "reciprocal" tariffs, among other issues of mutual interest. Accompanied by his wife Usha, the first Indian American and Hindu second lady of the United States, and their children, Vance will visit the tourist cities of Agra and Jaipur as well as the capital, New Delhi.

· The Annual Philippine-US military exercises (Balikatan 2025) begin in the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, Gatwick airport operations staff continue their industrial action, likely to increase disruption for travelers returning from Easter breaks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Egypt, the Sham Ennesim festival is celebrated marking the start of spring.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4/ M1 Money Supply (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Economic presents its joint Economic Outlook report.

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile's President Gabriel Boric will make a state visit to Brazil..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker participates in fireside chat on how economic mobility impacts regional economies and can promote local growth before the Economic Mobility Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Summit.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat, “Macro and Micro Economic Forces Shaping our Future" before the RVA Big Dipper Innovation Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Transmission of Monetary Policy" before the University of Minnesota Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute (HHEI) Spring 2025 Roundtable.

·       Canada PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Redbook (April/19)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/18)/

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Economic Activity (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia.

· In Australia, early voting begins in the country’s federal elections, which are held on May 3.  Polls leading up to the race had pointed to a potential minority government, where neither party achieves the 76 seats needed to govern, but the incumbent center-left Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has gained momentum during the campaign, improving his chances of forming a government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev and Foreign Minister Saido in Tashkent.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the MIT/ICADE Finance Club in Madrid, Spain.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts & Forecasters/ Government Budget & Debt to GDP 2024/ ECB Knot Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan President William Ruto will visit China through April 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Institute of International Finance holds its Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C. alongside the IMF/World Bank meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president and chief executive Austan Goolsbee delivers opening remarks in a virtual presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s 2025 Economic Mobility Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem give opening remarks before a “Fed Listens" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

·       SA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/18)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/18)/ Fed Beige Book/ Building Permits (March)/ Building Permits (March)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Singapore, the nine-day election campaign begins in advance of the May 3 election.

·       The Shanghai Auto Show begins – the world’s biggest – and runs for ten days.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Credit Card Spending (March)

·       Australia S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Indonesia HSBC Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Loan Growth (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russian-Iranian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation meets in Moscow.

·       EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius will meet with South Korea's minister for the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, Seok Jong-gun, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England chief economist and executive director for monetary analysis Huw Pill speaks at Leeds University Business School.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will participate on a panel discussion entitled “Tokenization and the Financial System: Adapting to the New Landscape” during the IMF/WB Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled “Central Bankers’ Dilemmas Amid Changing Global Liquidity conditions” at IIF Global Outlook Forum “Forging Growth in a Time of Transition” during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       eat Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Madagascar and partake in the fifth summit of the Indian Ocean Commission. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 24, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are meeting in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Trump Administration is hoping to finalize a deal with Ukraine for access to critical minerals.

·       Malaysian Trade Minister Zafrul meets US Trade Representative Jamison Greer in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering event, “Innovating the Future: Perspectives on Science, Engineering and the Economy."

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/19)/ Existing Home Sales (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/18)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/23)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China marks the National Day of Space Flight, on the day in 1970 when the country launched its first man-made earth satellite, Dongfanghong-1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/19)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/19)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, United Kingdom, on the sidelines of the Energy Security Summit co-hosted by the United Kingdom and the International Energy Agency through April 25..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate in a panel session at the Peterson Institute (PIIE) Webcast “Review of Monetary Policy Strategy by Central Banks”.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagne will participate on a panel at the symposium “A Franco-German Tandem? Insights from History and Future Challenges for the Banking Systems in France and Germany” jointly organized by the Institute for Banking and Financial History (IBF), the House of Finance at Goethe University Frankfurt and in cooperation with Deutsch-Französische Gesellschaft Frankfurt am Main at the invitation of ODDO BHF in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Sharon Donnery will give  introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) roundtable, "The Future of Financial Global Policymaking" in Washington D.C., United States of America.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits South Africa..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (March)

Friday, April 25, 2025 

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (April)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (March)/ Budget Balance (February)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/25)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)/ Federal Tax Revenues (February)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day in Australia and New Zealand, honoring the anniversary of the Gallipoli landings in 1915 during World War I.

·       The Marshall Islands holds a constitutional referendum.

·       Today is Military Foundation day in North Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/11)/ Deposit Growth (April/11)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Claudia Buch will give introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.  

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Car Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuela will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam and the Philippines through April 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Continue to Dominate Markets and Geopolitics, Chinese President Xi Travels Embarks on Asia Tour, The ECB Decides on Interest Rates, and Fed Chair Powell Talks Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook

April 13 - 20, 2025

It was another wild week for global markets in the wake of President Trump’s global tariff plan after he called a 90-day time-out on their implementation while raising tariffs on China to 145%.  While this coming week would normally be a quiet week for markets in advance of the Easter holiday, everyone is bracing for another wild week of high-level bilateral meetings and likely new announcements.

Drilling into the week ahead, we are going to be watching the meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump on Thursday to discuss prospects for a trade deal with the EU.   Additionally, we note there are unconfirmed reports US Treasury Scott Bessent may meet with UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves this week, too, to discuss a possible US-UK trade deal.   Bessent is scheduled to travel to Argentina on Monday to meet with President Javier Milei as Argentia is likely to sign a new deal with the IMF on financing assistance, further boosting Milei’s economic reform policies.

While all this going on, Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia for his first foreign visits of the year.  Trade relations are expected to be the primary point of discussion in the wake of the Trump tariffs – especially on Vietnam and Cambodia which got hit with tariffs of 46% and 49% respectively.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it will be a relatively light economic reporting week.   Markets, however, will be most focused on central bank decisions coming from the  European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.   

In the US, we will see the release of Q1 GDP, retail sales figures, industrial production for March and jobless claims on Friday.  But perhaps the most keenly watched economic data point this week will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday as well as speech by a number of regional Federal Reserve Presidents.

In Asia, Japan releases its March CPI on Friday while China’s Q1 GDP as well as March trade balance figures for March are out Monday.

In Europe, the UK labor market indicators are out Tuesday and  March CPI is out on Wednesday.  Germany sees the ZEW Survey for April out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington to hold new talks aimed at resolving EU-U.S. trade tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       India will launch joint military exercises with 10 African states located along the continent's eastern coast off the coast of Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).  

·       OPEC releases its monthly Oil Market Report.

·       There will be a BRICS Agriculture Working Group meeting in Brasilia, Brazil through April 15.

·       There will be a BRICs Meeting of Senior Energy Officials (virtual) through April 15.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump hosts Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House.

·       U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Argentina's President Javier Milei and local businesspeople in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

·       The U.S. Federal Trade Commission begins opening arguments in the trial seeking to unwind Meta’s purchase of Instagram.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Outlook with Chris Waller Event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Driving Through the Economic Fog" before the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on monetary policy in a moderated conversation hosted by Emory University.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak the Villanova Univeristy School of Business.

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi kicks begins a tour to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia that ends on Friday. The trip comes at a critical time for both China and Southeast Asia, with Vietnam and Cambodia among the countries hit hardest by the tariffs Trump announced on April 2. Malaysia, meanwhile, is this year's ASEAN chair, leading the bloc's response to Washington's measures.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Visitor Arrivals (February)

·       Singapore Central Bank interest rate decision/GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Car Sales (March)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, and Iran.  They will also talk about EU-Africa relations, the Western Balkans and how to engage further in the Balkans.

·       There will be an information meeting of EU Social Affairs Ministers through April 15 in Warsaw, Poland. 

·       The 1st EU-Palestine High-Level Political Dialogue in Luxembourg.  The gathering, led by  the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, and the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammad Mustafa. The Commission will be represented by Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica and Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib.  This the first ever meeting of EU and Palestinian leaders at this level and they are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the unfolding situation in the West Bank, and prospects for a two-state solution.

·       The Fourth Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Luxembourg.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 2 ‘Internal market’, including Chapters 1 (free movement of goods), 2 (freedom of movement of workers), 3 (right of establishment and freedom to provide services), 4 (free movement of capital), 6 (company law), 7 (intellectual property law), 8 (competition policy), 9 (financial services) and 28 (consumer and health protection).

·       Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will take part in the Third Meeting of National Coordinators of the Group of Friends in Defense of the United Nations Charter” in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Construction Output (February)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

·       Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).  

·       There will be a BRICS Climate Finance Meeting (virtual).

·       There will be a BRICS meeting on the global re-insurance landscape (virtual) through April 16.

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Peru, former president Ollanta Humala and his wife, Nadine Heredia, accused of money laundering, set to hear their sentence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks at the acceptance of the 2025 Distinguished Alumna Award at the Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C.

·       Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import & Export Prices (March)/ Redbook (April/12)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/11)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In North Korea, the country celebrates the Day of the Sun, marking the birthday of the country’s first leader Kim Il Sung.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (March)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/15)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1/ Cash Remittances (February)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank President will host an informal dinner and exchange of views of the Council with the President of the European Council António Costa in Frankfurt.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)/ Claimant Count Change (March)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (March)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (February) / ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

·       Serbia Building Permits (February)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Bahrain hosts the Smart Cities Summit through April 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SARB Monetary Policy Review

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultation, on the Great Lakes region.  

·       the World Trade Organization publishes its annual Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, analyzing recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2024 and forecasting GDP in 2025

·       There will be a BRICS Disaster Management Working Group meeting through April 17 in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       There will be a meeting of BRICS Transport Working Group in Brasilia, Brazil through April 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Fed 101" and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before event, "Columbus Metropolitan Club Weekly Forum: Insights from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack"

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economy and community banking with Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan before a Global Perspectives event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Dallas Citizens Council.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/11)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/11)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)/ Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun will travel to Hanoi for meetings with Vietnam’s General Phan Van Giang.  Together, they will watch the 38th joint naval patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision/South Korea Export & Import Prices (March)

·       New Zealand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Machinery Orders (February)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (April/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU gender equality ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Core Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

·       Serbia Current Account (February)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 17, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the White House.  They are expected to discuss Trump’s tariff regime toward the EU.

·       Japan and the United States will hold their first round of high-level negotiations on U.S. tariffs in Washington.

·       U.S. fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships will go into effect, although the extent of the fees is unclear given recent reconsideration in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Cybersecurity in the Banking System at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs 2025 State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability, New York, New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

·       USA Housing Starts (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/12)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/05)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/11)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/16)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Gunma, Japan.

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/12)/ BoJ Nakagawa Speech

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (February)

·       Greece Current Account (February)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ / Marginal Lending Rate

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Belarus GDP (March)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Syria Independence Day, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Ghana PPI (March)

Friday, April 18, 2025

Global

·       Today is Good Friday.  Most financial markets in Europe and the Americas are closed.

·       The United Nations is closed in observation of Good Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President J.D. Vance visits Italy and will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (a day after she meets with President Trump in Washington).  Vance will also visit the Vatican for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday.

·       Iran-US nuclear talks to resume (to be confirmed) in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will participate in a conversation at the University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics.

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

·       China FDI (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbia’s new government takes office after mass protests forced the previous government to resign.

·       In the UK a four-day strike begins by members of the union Unite over pay, pensions and conditions for 100 Red Handling staff, including baggage handlers and flight dispatchers, at Gatwick airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Slovakia Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (March)/ Manufacturing PMI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 19, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·      In the US, thousands of demonstrators are expected to gather in Washington and other US cities to protest against President Donald Trump and his policies.

·       Today is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution (the Battles of Lexington and Concord).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 20, 2025 

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christan world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.