Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis, as well as book recommendations, travel observations, and cultural experiences - all of which we hope will be of interest to you.

Francis Kelly 5/19/24 Francis Kelly 5/19/24

Global Week Ahead

Memorial Day is a week from this Monday, traditionally seen as the beginning of Summer in the US. Much of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere is roughly on the same seasonal scheduling, and we suspect we are looking forward to (hopefully) a peaceful and somewhat relaxing summer. But before we get to our beach vacations or mountain hideaways for a break, plenty is going on geopolitically.

First, as we got ready to publish this note, news broke that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and other senior Iranian officials had gone down in a helicopter crash in the northwest sector of Iran. The video footage of the rescue effort showed a dense fog hanging over the mountainous terrain, and no one had found the wreckage yet, nor had we known who was still alive.

However, the impact of any Iranian leadership will likely worry the markets. We would note, however, that Raisi is not the ultimate leader – Supreme Leader Khamenei is – and the idea of any internal struggles or regional risk developing from the crash is unlikely for many reasons (which we would be more than happy to discuss if you want separately).

Also, this week, Taiwan inaugurates a new president on Monday. Lai Ching-te is replacing Tsai Ing-wen, and Lai’s inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China. Lai’s cabinet choices and his experience in and around the government suggest a status quo relationship with Beijing going forward (not great, but hopefully not getting more inflamed).

Meanwhile, later this week, the Prime Ministers of Japan, China, and South Korea will gather for the first time since 2019 for trilateral meetings in Seoul, South Korea. China—which is Japan’s and South Korea’s largest trading partner—will likely warn the two countries about their growing security and trade engagement with the US. However, a good portion of the talks will be on mutual concerns and interests, such as climate change, the situation in North Korea, and trade.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, G7 finance ministers and central bank heads will gather in Italy later this week to discuss the global economic outlook and the economic impact of the Russian War on Ukraine. Watch for further decisions on whether to seize Russian assets held in the West to fund the Ukrainian defense efforts.

Regarding economic data releases this week, the Federal Reserve releases its meeting minutes on Wednesday. Staying in the US, the University of Michigan Survey comes out on Friday, and durable goods orders are also available.

In Europe, markets will watch the UK inflation data report, the German PPI report, and Germany’s Q1 GDP figures.

In Asia, Japan releases its CPI on Friday, while China provides its monthly decision on its loan prime rate. Finally, central bank monetary meetings will be held in Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey this week.

Below is what else we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Global

· The UN’s 10th World Water Forum, under the theme ‘Water for Shared Prosperity’, will take play 18-25 May in Bali, Indonesia. Heads of state, heads of international organizations, high level government officials, experts, scholars, entrepreneurs and economists from all over the world will share their knowledges, experiences, and practices regarding a wide range of topics related to water.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections. Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.

· President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony. Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty, and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.

· U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will travel to Saudi Arabia and Israel through May 19.

· Mexican opposition supporters will march in Mexico City and other major cities across the country to support democracy and partially to support presidential candidate Xochitl Galvez.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

· The Atlanta Federal Reserve holds their 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference. A number of central bankers, market participants, and other experts will be speaking.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Truck drivers in South Africa will go on strike across the country to protest the employment of foreign nationals within the local logistics industry.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 20, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security. In the afternoon, it is expected to hold a vote on a draft resolution on non-proliferation.

· The UN’s Global Transparency Forum is set to take place from 20 to 21 May 2024 at the United Nations University in Tokyo, Japan. The forum will discuss the pivotal role of transparency in climate action as required under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) of the Paris Agreement. The forum is organized by the Capacity-building Initiative for Transparency - Global Support Programme (CBIT-GSP), with support from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre (UNEP-CCC), UNDP Climate Promise and it is hosted by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give welcome remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Later that day, at 6:00 p.m. he will moderate a session at the Conference’s dinner.

· US Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York jointly host the annual International Roles of the US Dollar conference today and tomorrow in Washington. Speakers include Fed governor Christopher Waller.

· The Peterson Institute for International Economics hosts a virtual discussion entitled "The U.S. economy and monetary policy” with Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “U.S. Economic Outlook and Housing Price Dynamics” at the Mortgage Bankers.

· Mexico Retail Sales (March)

· Chile Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Argentina Leading Indicator (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan holds the presidential inauguration ceremonies for Lai Ching-te who is replacing Tsai Ing-wen. It also starts an unprecedented third-term in power for Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai's inauguration speech will be closely watched for signs of how he will navigate the tense cross-strait relationship with China.

· Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman arrives in Tokyo for a four-day official visit, accompanied by Saudi business leaders for talks with Japanese companies on investments and climate technology co-operation.

· India begins its 5th phase of elections, Lok Sabha.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Financial markets closed for the fifth phase of the parliamentary elections.

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

· Indonesia Current Account (Q1)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

· Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account (Q1)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's term will end. He then becomes the “acting” president has elections have been suspended due to the war.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Financial markets in Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and Austria are closed for Whi Monday (The day after Pentecost holiday).

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent speaks at the New Evidence on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism workshop in London.

· Italy Construction Output (March)

· Spain Balance of Trade (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan Business Confidence (Q1)

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

· Oman M2 Money Supply (March)/ Total Credit (March)

· Qatar Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate (Q4)

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on the protection of civilians in armed conflict: 25th Anniversary of SCR 1265 (1999).

· The UN’s Trade and Development Organization hosts the inaugural Global Supply Chain Forum in Bridgetown, Barbados.

· The OECD’s Forum on Responsible Mineral Supply Chains will be held through May 24 in Paris.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival begins and runs through May 23 in New York.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to give opening remarks before the"2024 Investing in Rural America Conference: Building and Maintaining Momentum" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to give "welcome back" remarks before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to give opening remarks at 2024 Governance and Culture Reform Conference.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives welcoming remarks at the Third Conference on the International Roles of the U.S. Dollar, Washington, D.C.

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to moderate "Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System" panel before the 2024 Financial Markets Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

· USA Redbook (May/18/API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/17)

· Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (April)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Indo-Pacific Business Forum begins in Manila. Co-hosted by the US and the Philippines, the event allows networking and discussions about critical infrastructure needs in the region.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (April)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/21)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol participate in the AI Seoul Summit, building on the Bletchley Declaration and the discussions of the Summit hosted by the UK last year.

· EU foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels, Belgium, where Spain, Ireland and others are expected to recognize the state of Palestine.

· The 8th EU-Republic of Moldova Association Council will be held in Brussels. The meeting is considered particularly important as Moldova has increasingly become a focus for Russian interference with rising risk of further destabilization. There is a break-away providence of Moldova – Transnistria – which has sworn their alliance to Moscow.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Minister are expected to discuss Ukraine, security and defense issues, general trade and investment competitiveness, and the next institutional EU cycle.

· The EU Transport, Telecommunication, and Energy Council (Telecom) meets in Brussels to discuss collaborative approach for consistent implementation of the recently adopted legislation in the digital field. The Council will also approve conclusions on the future of EU’s digital policy and on the future of cybersecurity. Over an informal lunch, ministers will discuss the subject of promoting digital skills for an inclusive digital transformation and inclusion. Finally, as an item without discussion, the Council is expected to adopt the artificial intelligence act.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market & Industry) meets in Brussels. The ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on “A competitive European industry driving our green, digital and resilient industrial future”.

· German Economy Minister Robert Habeck attends the start of the main construction phase of NeuConnect, the first direct power link between Germany and the U.K., in Wilhemshaven, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey delivers a lecture in honor of London School of Economics Charles Goodhart, hosted by the Financial Markets Group.

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the London City Week Conference entitled “Balancing the productivity opportunities of financial technology and AI against the potential risks” in London.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills gives a speech at the London City Week Conference in London.

· Germany PPI (April)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Current Account (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Construction Output (March)

· Greece Current Account (March)

· CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May

· Slovenia PPI (April)

· Italy Current Account (March)

· Hungary Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (April)/ Total Credit Growth (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The International Energy Agency’s annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency will take place in Nairobi through May 22. This is the first time the Conference has been held in Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Global

· The World Trade Organization (WTO) holds its General Council meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to go into consultations on the 1718 Committee (this goes to UN sanctions on North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development hosts a conference on economic and trade policies in Latin America in Paris, France at the OECD headquarters.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes published, MBA Purchase Index (May/17)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/17)

· Paraguay PPI (April)

· Argentina Economic Activity (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Machinery Orders (March)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Loan Growth (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (May)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

· Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Foreign Ministers of Poland, France, and Germany – the “Weimar Triangle” – will meet in Thuringia, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at an ESMA online event focused on the launch of its position paper on the effectiveness of capital markets in the EU.

· Bank of England deputy governor for financial stability Sarah Breeden speaks at the European Commission technical workshop in Brussels on macroprudential policies for non-bank financial intermediation.

· The ECB Governing Council holds a retreat hosted by the Bank of Ireland.

· Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI Input & Output (April)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (April)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

· Russia PPI (April)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an Open Debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Strengthening the role of the African state in addressing global security and development challenges.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Biden hosts Kenyan President William Ruto to celebrate 60 years of diplomatic relations. Talks between the two leaders are expected to focus on clean energy, mutual trade and a possible free trade agreement, and security concerns in Africa.

· US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen awarded honorary doctorate by Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic to participate in a virtual question-and-answer session with students in MBA macroeconomic class at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.

· Brazil BCB National Monetary Council Meeting

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Economic Activity (March)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/18)/ S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ New Home Sales (April)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (May)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

· Argentina Retail Sales (March)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

· Peru Current Account (Q1)/ GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nikkei hosts the 29th Future of Asia Forum in Tokyo through May 24. This year's main theme is "Asian leadership in an uncertain world." Political leaders set to attend the two-day event include Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, Singapore Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong, Vietnam Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai and Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Retail Sales (Q1)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/18)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· India HSBC Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Candidates vying to head next European Commission Presidency hold debate in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Hungary Gross Wage (March)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (May)

· France HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

· Germany HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)

· Euro Area HCOB Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)/ Negotiated Wage Growth (Q1)

· Poland Retail Sales (April)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Great Britain S&P Global Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (May)/ BoE Pill Speech

· Slovakia Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 24, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (Q1)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/24)

· Chile PPI (April)

· Colombia Business Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in East Timor, celebrating when the country gained its independence from Portugal in 1975.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Japan Inflation Rate (April)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)/ Current Account (Q1)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)/ Leading Index (March)

· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (April)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/17)

· Philippines Budget Balance (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session opens in Sofia, Bulgaria.

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro in Berlin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the Bonn-Frankfurt-Mannheim PhD Conference in Bonn, Germany.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls (Q1)

· France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)

· Spain PPI (April)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Republic Day in Cameroon, celebrating the establishment of a unitary government in 1972 and doing away with the federal system that had been in place.

· Today is Independence Day in Eritrea, celebrating the day in 1991 when the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front moved in the capital of Asmara and reinstated independence after a war with Ethiopia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (April)

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate (Q1)

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Revolution Day in Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India begins its sixth phase of elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan celebrates Independence Day today, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its freedom from the United Kingdom.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 26, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Guyana celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in 1966 when they gained their independence from the United Kingdom.

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Prime Ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea are scheduled to hold meetings today and through tomorrow in Seoul, South Korea. China is Japan and South Korea’s largest trading partner, and all three nations have concerns over North Korea’s behavior and posture. The meetings will also focus on climate change and other areas of mutual concern.

· Cambodia holds provincial elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emanual Macron begins an official state visit to Germany.

· Lithuania holds presidential election run-off votes.

· Today is Independence Day in Georgia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech entitled "Climate change and monetary policy" at Festival dell'Economia di Trento 2024 in Trento, Italy.

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/12/24 Francis Kelly 5/12/24

The Global Week Ahead

The most significant event on our radar this week is the highly anticipated meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This meeting, marking the 75th anniversary of Russia-China relations, holds immense importance as it is the first face-to-face interaction between the two leaders since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The discussions are expected to revolve around strategies to boost trade, particularly in light of the tightening sanctions on Russia and the potential for new bilateral energy deals. Putin is keen on expanding natural gas and oil exports to China.

The meeting comes as President Biden is expected to impose tough new tariffs on Chinese solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, and other goods. China is expected to issue retaliatory tariffs at some point, but it is unclear at this point what sectors will be hit and when.

Also this week, we expect Israel to ramp up military pressure on Hamas in the Gaza city of Rafah despite President Biden’s decision to hold back on supplying particular military aid. All indications strongly suggest Israel will not stand down despite Biden’s efforts. Also in the region this week, 22 Arab leaders will meet in Bahrain for the annual Arab League Summit (and the first one in years in which Syrian President Bashir al-Assad has been invited back since the brutal Syrian Civil War), and the situation in Gaza will be the leading issue of discussion.

Elsewhere in the world, a new Prime Minister takes office in Singapore, signaling a new era of leadership in the city-state as it further ascends as a leading financial center in the greater Indo-Pacific region.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this coming week, markets will focus on the US CPI and retail sales reports on Wednesday to get a better sense of the inflation threat. Fed Chair Jay Powell will be in Amsterdam this week, speaking on a panel with other central bank chiefs, and we will be listening closely for his assessment of the economy.

In Asia, China will release inflation data this coming Wednesday, along with retail sales and industrial production. Having seen more tepid economic reports last week and the threat of stagflation hitting China, markets will be keenly attentive to the coming reports. Also in Asia this week, Japan will release Q1 GDP figures and its PPI report.

Finally, in Europe, it is a fairly light reporting week. Markets will examine UK labor figures and note economic data from Germany.

Here is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Global

· UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres begins an official visit to Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain for bilateral meetings and discussions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –s

· U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu will visit India, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh through May 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India begins Phase 4 of elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Thailand Consumer Confidence APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds Presidential elections.

· The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held. The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel celebrates Yom Ha’atzmaut, otherwise known as Israel’s Independence Day, through May 13.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 13, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Yemen), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile hosts Chile Fintech Forum 2024 in Santiago.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell participates in a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) President Klaas Knot at the Annual General Meeting, Foreign Bankers’ Association, Amsterdam.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Communicating About Monetary Policy” at the Cleveland Fed Conference on Central Bank Communications, Cleveland, Ohio.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Growth and Change at Community Development Financial Institutions” at the Expanding Access to Capital for CDFIs, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester to participate in the discussion before the Central Bank Communications: Theory and Practice Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

· Canada Building Permits MoM MAR

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations APR

· Brazil Business Confidence MAY/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Consumer Confidence APR

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence APR

· Ecuador Balance of Trade MAR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN will hold its annual 21st ASEAN Regional Security Policy Conference in Laos through May 17.

· South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul will meet with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing, China, through March 14. It is the first time a South Korean foreign minister has visited Beijing in more than six years. They are expected to talk about bilateral trade as well as arrange a trilateral meeting with Japan and the situation on the Korean peninsula.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI APR/ Food Inflation YoY APR/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

· Australia NAB Business Confidence APR

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence APR

· Malaysia Construction Output YoY Q1

· India Inflation Rate YoY APR

· China Vehicle Sales YoY APR/ Current Account Prel Q1

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. They will discuss outcomes of the recent G7 meeting in Italy, hear the biannual report of the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Board, the current stage of the euro area banking system, Euro-area competitiveness, and the EU capital markets union efforts.

· The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets in Brussels through May 14. They will seek to approve conclusions on inclusive societies for young people, European and international policy agendas for children, youth and children’s rights, and the legacy of the European Year of Youth 2022. On the following day, it will turn its attention to culture and audiovisual issues, with ministers seeking to approve conclusions on the rise of influencers as a part of the EU’s media ecosystem, as well as on ways to empower the cultural and creative sectors through data-driven audience development. They will also hold a policy debate on future-proofing the cultural and creative sectors in the age of artificial intelligence.

· Georgia’s Parliament will begin the third reading of the controversial “Foreign Agents” bill. More protests are expected nationwide in opposition to the bill, which is seen as being pro-Russian and a threat to the nation’s democracy. They are focusing on a so-called “positive agenda” of mutual trade and energy matters, repairing cultural ties, and a long list of other items placed on the so-called positive agenda.

· Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.

· Norway will host the heads of government from Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, and Germany, which will meet for a summit in Stockholm, Sweden, through May 14. They will discuss security policy and the situation in Ukraine.

· Russia’s Duma will consider candidates for deputy prime minister.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland Construction PMI APR

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence APR

· Turkey Current Account MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR

· Serbia Inflation Rate YoY APR

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Germany Current Account MAR

· Euro Area European Commission Spring Forecasts

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Mauritania holds the first round of parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1/ PPI YoY APR

· Jordan Inflation Rate YoY APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate YoY APR

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate YoY APR

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Paraguay celebrates its Independence Day through May 15. It commemorates the day in 1811 when they won their freedom from Spain.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index APR/ PPI APR/ Redbook YoY MAY/11, Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change MAY/10

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales MAR

· Colombia Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Retail Sales YoY MAR

· Paraguay Balance of Trade APR

· Uruguay Industrial Production YoY MAR

· Argentina Inflation Rate YoY APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand holds elections for their House of Representatives.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Export Prices YoY APR

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending YoY APR/ Visitor Arrivals YoY MAR

· Japan PPI YoY APR/ Machine Tool Orders YoY APR

· Indonesia Retail Sales YoY MAR

· India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index YoY APR

· China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economics and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. The Council will seek a political agreement on a proposal to make the relief of excess withholding taxes faster and safer (FASTER). This initiative aims to help fight tax abuse and contribute to completing the EU capital markets union by encouraging cross-border investment. They will also seek a political agreement on the value-added tax (VAT) in the digital age package. The package consists of three proposals that set out to tackle VAT fraud, support businesses and promote digitalization. They will also discuss the Russian war on Ukraine and the broader economic impact on the EU. Finally, they will discuss the challenges arising from rapidly the rapidly aging EU population. The ministers will also exchange views on the state of play of the implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).

· The seventh Copenhagen Democracy Summit will take place in Copenhagen, Denmark, through May 15. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the presidents of numerous EU countries will speak. Also scheduled to speak are Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and Vice President Lai Ching-te as well as US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

· The 77th Cannes Film Festival opens, running until May 25. The honorary Palme d’Or award this year will go to Star Wars producer George Lucas.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Governor Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the high-level scientific conference "Weichenstellungen für Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Wachstum" organized by the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, Germany.

· Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill answers online questions on the economic outlook for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales

· Germany Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY/ ZEW Current Conditions MAY

· Romania Industrial Production YoY MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Current Account MAR

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate MAR/ Claimant Count Change APR/ HMRC Payrolls Change APR/ BoE Pill Speech/ Labour Productivity QoQ Final Q4

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices YoY APR

· Slovakia Inflation Rate YoY APR

· Spain Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index MAY

· Greece Inflation Rate YoY APR

· Poland Balance of Trade MAR/ Current Account MAR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Gold Production YoY MAR/ Mining Production YoY MAR/ Unemployed Persons Q1

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on Peace and Security in Africa [G5 Sahel].

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Innovation and the Evolving Financial Landscape” at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024 in Washington, D.C.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a fireside chat on the economy in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index MAY/10/ Inflation Rate YoY APR/ CPI APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change MAY/10, NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows MAR/ Foreign Bond Investment MAR/ Overall Net Capital Flows MAR

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity MAR

· Canada Housing Starts APR/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Final MAR

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ ISE Economic Activity YoY MAR

· Peru GDP Growth Rate YoY MAR/ Unemployment Rate APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong steps down to be replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, the country’s former finance minister.

· Today is Buddha’s Birthday, celebrated by many Asian nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Wage Price Index YoY Q1

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

· Philippines Cash Remittances MAR

· Indonesia Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade APR

· India M3 Money Supply YoY MAY/03/ Passenger Vehicles Sales YoY APR/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade APR

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing & Services PMI APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping through May 16.

· The EU Financial Stability Review of the implications of artificial intelligence on financial stability is pre-released.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

· Hungary Construction Output YoY MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR

· France Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

· Poland GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1/ Inflation Rate YoY Final APR

· Turkey Budget Balance APR

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

· Euro Area Employment Change YoY Prel Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production YoY MAR

· Ireland Residential Property Prices YoY MAR

· Russia Building Permits MAR/ Balance of Trade MAR/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Palestinians commemorate “Nabka Day” (“Catastrophe”) commemorating when 70,000 Arabs fled due to the creation of the State of Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate YoY APR/ Wholesale Prices YoY APR

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1/ GDP YoY APR

· Israel Inflation Rate YoY APR

· Oman M2 Money Supply YoY MAR/ Total Credit YoY MAR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 17th German-Africa Energy Forum is being held in Hamburg, Germany, through May 16.

· The 11th Africa CEO Forum will bring together business leaders, investors, and policymakers from Africa and around the world to Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales YoY MAR

· Nigeria Inflation Rate YoY APR

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Global

· UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will attend the Arab League Summit in Manama and will have remarks.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will testify at a hearing entitled “Oversight of Financial Regulators” before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on “The Economic Impact of Higher Education and Healthcare Institutions" and participate in a conversation before the hybrid 2024 Anchor Economy Conference in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

· USA Building Permits Prel APR/ Import & Export Prices APR/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index MAY/ Philly Fed Business Conditions MAY/ Capacity Utilization APR/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production YoY APR

· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade MAR

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Cambodia and China will conduct "Golden Dragon" military exercises through May 30. The exercises will combine land, sea, and air drills symbolizing the strengthening defense ties between the two nations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Employment Change APR/ Participation Rate APR

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment MAY/11/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Stock Investment by Foreigners MAY/11/ Capacity Utilization MoM MAR/ Industrial Production YoY Final MAR

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s highest military authority, the Military Committee, gathers in Brussels for a meeting, also attended by the Ukrainian chief of defense.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the Make UK Conference entitled “The current state of Britain’s Labour market.”

· Germany Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech

· Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review

· Italy Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ Balance of Trade MAR

· Great Britain BoE Financial Stability Report

· Ireland Balance of Trade MAR

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10/ Auto Production & Sales YoY APR

· Poland Core Inflation Rate YoY APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Arab League Summit will be held in Bahrain. Among the invitees are Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He had been excluded from the annual meetings since the start of the Syrian Civil War. The Gaza War will be the primary issue for discussion as well as the situation in Yemen and Houthi attacks on international shipping.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, May 17, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will visit Chile to meet with President Gabriel Boric for a State Visit to discuss South American integration.

· Guatemalan President Arevalo visits Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrado.

· Peru will host the ASEAN Trade Ministers in Arequipa, Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada New Housing Price Index YoY APR/ Foreign Securities Purchases MAR

· USA CB Leading Index MoM APR

· Argentina Leading Indicator MoM APR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand PPI Input and Output QoQ Q1

· South Korea Unemployment Rate APR

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports YoY APR/ Balance of Trade APR

· China House Price Index YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY APR/ Unemployment Rate APR/ NBS Press Conference/ FDI (YTD) YoY APR

· Indonesia Property Price Index YoY Q1

· Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1

· India Bank Loan Growth YoY MAY/03/ Deposit Growth YoY MAY/03/ Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/10

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Moldovan President Maia Sandu in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Banking Sector Industry Meeting organized by IESE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

· Bank of England monetary policy committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the annual ESCoE Conference on Economic Measurement, held in partnership with the Office for National Statistics, at Alliance Manchester Business School.

· France Unemployment Rate Q1

· Switzerland Industrial Production YoY Q1

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY APR

· Great Britain BoE Mann Speech

· Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Final APR/ CPI Final APR

· Russia Current Account MAR/ Inflation Rate YoY APR

· Belarus GDP YoY APR/ Industrial Production YoY APR

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production YoY APR

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves/ M3 Money Supply YoY APR

· Ghana PPI YoY APR

Saturday, May 18, 2024

Global

· The 10th World Water Forum opens in Bali and runs through May 25.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives the Commencement Speech at the University of Virginia 2024 Commencement Ceremony – Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, Charlottesville, Virginia.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Dominican Republic holds presidential and legislative elections. Incumbent President Luis Abinader, from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), is expected to win a second term.

· President Joe Biden delivers address at Morehouse College’s commencement ceremony. Protests are expected over the US support for Israel and a number of faculty and students have demanded the invitation be rescinded.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives the Commencement Remarks at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington, D.C.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you or a colleague would like to be added to our distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/6/24 Francis Kelly 5/6/24

The Global Week Ahead

May 6 - 12, 2024

This week is going to be relatively quiet. Monday and Wednesday are holidays in Europe, which means a very quiet week in the EU, while holidays in Japan and South Korea will also help things stay quiet in Asia.

However, we are watching one big geopolitical event this week, which will take place in the EU: Chinese President Xi Jinping's visits to Europe. Xi's trip begins with meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron and EU President Ursula von der Leyden in Paris to discuss the multiple trade spats between the EU and China. From there, Xi heads to Hungary for meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orban and then to Serbia. While all this is happening, Russia celebrates Victory Day this week, marking the end of World War II, and President Vladimir Putin will celebrate being reinaugurated as President of Russia.

Also, this week, we will be watching for renewed efforts to bring a cease-fire to Gaza as Israel prepares to launch a military offensive against the city of Rafah. We do not hope a deal will get done, but the discussions will likely intensify, and we can always hope.

Turning our attention to the US, the US Congress is in session this week. While the budget is finished and aid to Ukraine and Israel has been approved, most of the "major" issues left for Congress to tackle are secondary. This week's key focus for Congress is reauthorizing the Federal Aviation Administration.

On the global economic radar this week, there are several key indicators and events to watch. Markets will be closely monitoring the Bank of England's interest rate decision on Thursday, the UK GDP report, and the University of Michigan consumer survey in the US. In Asia, China will be reporting the latest trade balance and Caixin Services PMI, while Japan will also be releasing trade data. Australia's Reserve Bank meets on Tuesdayto decide rates.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Monday, May 6, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Treasury Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury General Counsel Neil MacBride will travel to Singapore and Malaysia to advance Treasury’s work countering terrorist financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies as well as to discuss the implementation of sanctions and export controls against Russia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams to participate in conversation before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA Fed Williams Speech/ Loan Officer Survey

· Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Minutes

· Canada Average Hourly Wages (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping begins a European tour of France, Serbia, and Hungary. He will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

· Kazakhstan S&P Global Services PMI (April)

· Thailand Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in trilateral meetings in Paris with Emmanuel Macron, President of France, and Xi Jinping, President of the People’s Republic of China

Economic Reports/Events –

· The UK marks the Early May Bank Holiday, a national holiday.

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Prel (March)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ Bundesbank President Nagel Speech

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ PPI (March)

· Switzerland SNB Jordan Speech

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Jordan PPI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Chad holds the first phase of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Standard Bank PMI (April)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

· Kenya Stanbic Bank PMI (April)

· Ghana S&P Global PMI (April)

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in a moderated conversation on the economic overview before the Milken Institute 2024 Global Conference.

· Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production (April)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· USA Redbook (May/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs/ Fed Kashkari Speech/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/03)/ Used Car Prices (April)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (April)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

· Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Australia Retail Sales Final (March)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

· Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/07)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will be re-inaugurated as President of Russia.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss Ukraine, the situation in Gaza, and other current business.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council meets in Brussels. They are expected to discuss the Equal Treatment Directive and the state of play of the Violence Against Women Survey.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Jonathan Hall gives a speech at the University of Exeter entitled “Monsters in the deep… Artificial Intelligence.”

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Halifax House Price Index (April)/ New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (April)/ BoE Hall Speech

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· Romania PPI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Hungary Retail Sales (March)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· Serbia PPI (April)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on 1559 report (Lebanon).

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Washington Conference on the Americas takes place in the U.S. capital with Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield will speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson participates in a moderated discussion on Careers in Economics at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins to speak before students and faculty and participates in a fireside discussion before the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Sloan School of Management's Challenges and Opportunities class.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (May/03)

· Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Car Production (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Chile Inflation Rate (April)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

· Argentina Industrial Production (March)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

· Peru Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Budapest.

· North Macedonia holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· Germany Industrial Production (March)

· Romania Retail Sales (March)

· Hungary Industrial Production Prel (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (April)

· Span Industrial Production (March)

· Italy Retail Sales (March)

· Great Britain BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

· Ireland Industrial Production (March)

· Russia Monetary Policy Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon BLOM Lebanon PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Thursday, May 9, 2024

Global

· The G7 Justice Ministers meet in Venice, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina’s General Confederation of Labor will go on strike in protest over President Javier Miliei’s economic reform efforts.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Inflation Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/04)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/03)

· Canada BoC Financial System Review

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (March)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (March)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/04)/ Coincident Index Prel (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Australia Building Permits Final (March)/ Private House Approvals Final (March)

· Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Ascension Day, a public holiday in the EU. The ECB and most major banking systems are closed.

· Russia will hold a large military parade in Moscow, marking the end of World War II.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks and participates in Q&A at Panel Cívico organized by Asociación Panel Cívico in Madrid, Spain.

· ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks at a seminar “The tokenization of financial instruments – prospects for the Italian market” organized by CONSOB in Rome, Italy

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates on a panel discussion at V Edition of the Expansión International Forum in Madrid, Spain. She later participates on a panel entitled “Finance and Banks.”
Time: 9:55

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ Monetary Policy Report/ MPC Vote Cut/ MPC Vote Hike/ MPC Vote Unchanged/ MPC Meeting Minutes/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)

· Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (March)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 10, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives the commencement speech at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators” at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, Arlington, Texas.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Louisiana Bankers Association Annual Conference.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

· Mexico Industrial Production (March)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

· USA Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Prel (May)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Goolsbee Speech/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)

· Japan Household Spending (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (April)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/03)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

· China Vehicle Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote presentation on the digital euro by at CXVI Meeting of Central Bank Governors of the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) in Madrid, Spain.

· ECB Board Frank Elderson Frank Elderson participates in a roundtable at ASVIS/ECCO Symposium "Europe's Future: Investing in the Climate Transition for All" in Rome, Italy.

· Romania Balance of Trade (March)

· Great Britain GDP (March)/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Industrial & Manufacturing Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Prel Q1/ BoE Pill Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

· Slovakia Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· Turkey Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

· Italy Industrial Production (March)/ Industrial Sales (February)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

· Switzerland Current Account Prel Q1

· Greece Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Vehicle Sales (April)

· Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran holds parliamentary elections (phase 2).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 11, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Lithuania holds Presidential elections.

· The Catalan regional elections (Spain) are being held. The vote could determine the future of Spain’s minority government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/6/24 Francis Kelly 5/6/24

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

May 6 - 10, 2024

The coming week in Washington's financial regulatory world will be fairly run-of-the-mill, but we will be watching several events which closely which could shake things up considerably.

First, press leaks suggest a long-awaited investigatory report on accusations of a toxic workplace at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) may be publicly released early next week. There have been reports the report, conducted by the law firm Cleary Gottlieb, retained by a special committee of the FDIC board, will be tough on the management of FDIC Chair Marty Gruenberg and other senior managers. Gruenberg has apologized broadly to FDIC staff, but we are curious to see what details the report may reveal.

It will be a busy week at the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC convenes its Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee early in the week and then hosts the 11th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation at the end of the week. The event is being cohosted by Lehigh University's Center for Financial Services and the University of Maryland's Center for Financial Policy.

Also, next week, state securities regulators will converge on Washington as the North American Securities Administrators Administration holds its 2024 NASAA Spring Meeting and Public Policy Symposium in Washington, D.C.

Looking at Capitol Hill, we will be watching the House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee which will be holding a hearing looking at the SEC's Enforcement Division. By the hearing title – "SEC Enforcement: Balancing Deterrence with Due Process" – it seems like it will be a tough review of the Division's enforcement agenda. Over in the Senate Banking Committee, there will be a hearing about financial services fees in the rental housing market and the need for greater consumer protections.

Below is a listing of all the other significant regulatory-related events this coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Thursday, May 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled “Consumer Protection: Examining Fees in Financial Services and Rental Housing.”

House of Representatives

Tuesday, May 7, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Capital Markets Subcommittee holds a hearing on "SEC Enforcement: Balancing Deterrence with Due Process."
Wednesday, May 8, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Mission Critical: Restoring National Security as the Focus of Defense Production Act Reauthorization, Part II."

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Wednesday, May 8, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson participates in a moderated discussion on Careers in Economics at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, May 8, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.
Friday, May 10, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Financial Stability Risks: Resiliency and the Role of Regulators” at the Texas Bankers Association Annual Convention, Arlington, Texas.
Friday, May 10, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr gives the commencement speech at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

Monday, Thursday, May 6 – 9 – Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian Nelson and Treasury General Counsel Neil MacBride will travel to Singapore and Malaysia to advance Treasury’s work countering terrorist financing and revenue generation by Iran and its proxies as well as to discuss the implementation of sanctions and export controls against Russia.
Friday, May 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Financial Stability Oversight Council will meet. You can watch the public portion via this LINK. An agenda has not been released yet.

Securities and Exchange CommissionMonday, May 6, 10:00 a.m. – The US Securities and Exchange Commission holds a meeting of the SEC Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under federal securities laws. You can read the agenda HERE.
Thursday, May 9, 2:00 p.m. EST – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.
Thursday & Friday, May 9 & 10 – The SEC hosts the 11th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation. The event is being cohosted by Lehigh University’s Center for Financial Services, and the University of Maryland’s Center for Financial Policy and will be held at the SEC.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

Monday, May 6, 11:30 a.m. PT – CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam will participate in a Fireside Chat at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference at the Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Beverly Hills, California.
Tuesday, May 7, 2:00 p.m. EDT – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will participate on a Responsible AI panel at the North American Securities Administrators Association’s (NASAA) 2024 Public Policy Symposium that explores the opportunities and challenges faced by policymakers, regulators, regulated financial institutions, investors, and customers. The event will be held at the Intercontinental Hotel in Washington, D.C.
Wednesday, May 8, 8:15 a.m. – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak at the World Economic Forum’s Industry Strategy Meeting 2024 in New York.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

Wednesday, May 8, 3:15 p.m. London – Acting Comptroller Michael J. Hsu will participate in a keynote discussion on digital assets, including the tokenization of real-world assets and liabilities, as well as consumer protection, compliance, and supervision, at the Financial Times' Crypto and Digital Assets Summit in London.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

Tuesday, May 7, 1:00 p.m. – 2:00 p.m. – The Federal Trade Commission host a conference entitled “Older Adults and Fraud: What You Need to Know.” Speakers from the Federal Trade Commission, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the Securities and Exchange Commission will share updates from their agencies and free resources to help you spot, avoid, and report fraud.

Farm Credit Administration

Thursday, May 9, 10:00 a.m. – The Board of the of the FCA holds a board meeting. The agenda will review the report of the 2022 Census of Agriculture and approval of the minutes of the April 11 board meeting.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

Sunday – Wednesday, May 5 -8 – NASSA holds its 2024 NASAA Spring Meeting and Public Policy Symposium in Washington, D.C.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Monday & Tuesday, May 6 & 7 – SIFMA holds its annual Anti-Money Laundering & Financial Crimes Conference in New York.

Tuesday, May 7, 11:00 a.m. Malaysia – The Institute for International Finance hosts an online Roundtable on Digital Fraud and Scams. The event is being held in Malaysia.

Wednesday, May 8, 10:00 a.m. EST – SIFMA holds a Webinar entitled “China: The Emerging Financial Investment Landscape.”

Thursday, May 9, 11:00 a.m. AEST – ISDA holds a virtual conference entitled “Countdown to D-Day: Navigating APAC Reporting Rules and Implementation Challenges.”

Friday, May 10, 9:00 a.m. Istanbul, Türkiye – The Institute for International Finance holds the Türkiye Sustainable Finance Forum in Istanbul.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Friday, May 10, 9:00 a.m. - The Affordable Housing Conference of Montgomery County, Maryland, holds its 33rd annual Housing Summit with the theme "Building the Future: Unfinished Business in Affordable Housing.” Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman delivers keynote luncheon remarks at Noon. Then Representatives David Trone, (D-Md.),. Jamie Raskin, (D-Md.), and . Glenn Ivey, (D-Md.) will also speak. The event will be held in Rockville, Maryland.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/3/24 Francis Kelly 5/3/24

CFA Society of Houston

Energy, Economics, Elections, and Geopolitical Risk

It was a great pleasure to speak to the CFA Society of Houston this past week in my role as Chief Political Strategist for DWS. As one of the leading global asset management firms, DWS really makes a superb effort to reach out and offer thought leadership content to clients and market participants. It’s a real credit to their leadership and vision, and I’m humbled to be part of it.

Houston is at the crossroads of many political and economic issues: energy, immigration, and economic growth from the boom in semiconductor and other tech businesses moving to Texas.

The questions came fast and furious and were superb—I had so much fun talking with everyone. Thank you, CFA Society of Houston, for having me and giving me the opportunity to talk with you!

Francis Kelly 4/28/24 Francis Kelly 4/28/24

The Global Week Ahead

April 28 - May 5, 2024

It is hard to believe May arrives this week. With it comes May Day, celebrated in many countries around the world. This means many financial markets and governments will be closed on Wednesday. But that does not mean this week will be quiet. We are tracking several important events.

First, next Sunday, Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to make a rare visit to Europe for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabić. But Xi’s visit to Serbia will also come around the 25th anniversary of when the U.S. bombed the Chinese Embassy during a series of NATO strikes against the Serbian government. Three Chinese journalists were killed, and the White House called the incident a regrettable mistake.

Also this week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads back to the Middle East for talks with Saudi and Israeli leaders in an attempt to jump-start negotiations to release Israeli hostages held by Hamas and perhaps find an avenue to reach a cease-fire.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, markets will be watching the Federal Reserve’s FMOC meetings this week for any signal of possible interest rate cuts (which seems increasingly unlikely for the rest of the year). Also this week, U.S. employment figures are released.

In Europe, The April CPI prints from the greater Eurozone, Germany, and Spain are coming out, as are the first quarter GDP figures. In Asia, this week, China releases PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI, hopefully giving markets more assurances that China’s economy is leveling out and returning to normal. Japan releases industrial production and labor data this week, as well as the Bank of Japan minutes from their March meeting.

Here is what else we are watching around the world this week:

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Global

· G& Climate, Energy, and Environmental Ministers meet in Torino, Italy, through April 30.

· The World Economic Forum is holding a Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, through April 29.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Antony Blinkin will leave for meetings in the Middle East through April 30. The meetings will be around the World Economic Forum event in Riyad, Saudi Arabia, where Blinken will also speak. He then goes on to Israel for meetings.

· The second Mexican presidential debate takes place in Mexico City.

· China will host three separate Latin American foreign ministers for separate meetings through April 30:

Bolivian Foreign Minister Celinda Sosa Lunda will visit Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
Argentinian Foreign Minister Diana Mondino will visit Beijing for talks with Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Mondino will seek to extend a currency swap with Beijing and seek to stabilize relations as Argentine President Javier Milei is seen growing away from China and closer to the US.
Peru’s Foreign Minister Javier Gonzalez-Olaechea Franco will visit Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India’s national elections continue.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 29, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A criminal hearing against Colombian President Gustavo Petro's son, Nicolas Petro, will begin in Barranquilla, Colombia, over allegations of taking bribes and money laundering.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (March)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will visit Indonesia for meetings with President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo. This will be Lee’s final meeting with a foreign leader before he transfers power to Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in mid-May. Wong will accompany him on the trip, Indonesia's foreign ministry said. The discussions are expected to cover topics such as food resilience, the green energy transition, and the development of Indonesia's new capital city, Nusantara.

· The IMF’s executive board meets to discuss the approval of $1.1bn funding for Pakistan, the last tranche of a $3bn standby arrangement secured last summer to avert a sovereign default and which runs out this month

· Japan will celebrate its Golden Week holiday through May 4, which will include multiple public holidays and spur significant travel in the country.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Singapore URA Property Index Final (Q1)/ Unemployment Rate Prel (Q1)/ Imports/ Exports/ PPI (March)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Thailand Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment (Q1)

· Sri Lanka PPI (March)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· Australia CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is expected to announce whether he will step down from office following revelations his wife is under investigation for corruption.

· Candidates for the European Commission presidency will debate in Brussels. Taking part in the debate are Walter Baier (Party of the European Left); Bas Eickhout (European Green Party); Valeriu Ghilețchi (European Christian Political Movement); Ursula von der Leyen (European People’s Party); Maylis Roßberg (European Free Alliance); Nicolas Schmit (Party of European Socialists); Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party); and Anders Vistisen (Identity and Democracy Party).

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. They will focus on the measures that have been proposed or taken so far that are aimed at simplifying the common agricultural policy (CAP) and strengthening the position of farmers in the food supply chain.

· The EU General Affairs Council will hold informal meetings in Brussels through April 30.

· Heathrow Airport Border Force employees are expected to go on strike through May 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will give remarks at a dinner at the Royal Automobile Club organized by Euro50 Group in London, UK.

· Slovakia Business and Consumer Confidence (April)

· Spain Inflation Rate Prel (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (April)

· Germany Baden Wuerttemberg/ Bavaria/ Brandenburg/ Hesse/ North Rhine Westphalia/ Saxony CPI (April)/ Inflation Rate Prel (April)

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)/ Harmonised Inflation Rate Prel (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Togo holds legislative and regional elections.

· The World Bank hosts the International Development Association Africa Heads of State Summit in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya Inflation Rate (April)

· Nigeria Unemployment Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Global

· The UN will hold a joint event of the General Assembly and the Economic and Social Council on the theme “El Niño 2023-2024: Actions for the safety, sustainability and resilience of people and the planet”.

· The IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and the Pacific is released.

· Today is the last day of Passover.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The International Court of Justice holds preliminary hearings in Mexico’s case against Ecuador. In early April, Ecuadorian police broke into the Mexican Embassy to arrest former Ecuadorian Vice President Jorge Glas, who had been residing there to avoid arrest.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Unemployment Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)

· Canada GDP (February)

· USA Employment Cost Index (Q1)/ Redbook (April/27)/ House Price Index (February)/ Chicago PMI (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (April)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/26)

· Chile Industrial & Manufacturing Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Colombia Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (March)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Periklino Electric Vehicle Show begins in Jakarta. More than 80 brands will be there to show the latest in EVs.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Industrial Production Prel (March)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Construction Orders (March)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

· Philippines PPI (March)

· Australia Housing Credit (March)/ Retail Sales Prel (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)

· China NBS & Non-Manufacturing & General PMI (April)/ Caixin Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Business Confidence (Q1)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (March)

· Thailand Current Account (March)/ Private Investment & Consumption (March)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)

· India Infrastructure Output (March)

· Pakistan Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at a conference entitled "Globalization: What's Next?" co-organized by Banque de France, CEPR, the World Bank, and the University of Surrey in Paris, France.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Milles gives a speech at the London Institute of Banking and Finance.

· France GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)/ Household Consumption (March)/ Inflation Rate Prel (April)/ PPI (March)

· Germany Retail Sales (March)/ Import Prices (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)/ PPI (March)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)/ Current Account (February)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)/ Inflation Rate Prel (April)

· Poland Inflation Rate Prel (April)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues (Q1)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (April)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (March)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)/ Inflation Rate Flash (April)/ CPI Flash (April)

· Greece PPI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Flash (Q1)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

· Ukraine Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

· Qatar Balance of Trade (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Sector Credit (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Budget Balance (March)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Global

· May Day is celebrated around the world. Many financial markets and banks globally are closed today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Sentencing of co-founder of crypto platform Binance, Changpeng Zhao, over money laundering.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins meetings through May 2 on interest rates.

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklern and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Canadian Parliament’s Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/26)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/26)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in the Marshall Islands.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Unemployment Rate (Q1)/ Participation Rate (Q1)

· Australia Ai Group Industry, Construction, & Manufacturing Index (April)/ Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/ Commodity Prices (April)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

· Kazakhstan Current Account (Q1)

· India M3 Money Supply (April/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Labor Day in most of Europe. Banks and financial markets are closed.

· Today is the 20th Anniversary of the EU trading bloc enlarging to 25 member states (from 15 states).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Prel (Q1)

· Israel Composite Economic Index (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 2, 2024

Global

· The OECD Ministerial Council meeting takes place in Paris through May 3.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/27)/ Unit Labour Costs Prel (Q1)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (April/27)/ Factory Orders (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/26)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Peru Inflation Rate (April)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is expected to announce the creation of an international framework for generative AI at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's Ministerial Council Meeting. During the two-day meeting in Paris. The framework is expected to include more than 40 countries.

· The Asian Development Bank holds its 57th annual meeting in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (March)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/27)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Building Permits Prel (March)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (April)

· Kazakhstan Tengri Partners Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President von der Leyen will travel to Lebanon with Cyprus President Cyprus Nikos Christodoulides. Together, they will meet with Lebanon Prime Minister Najib Azmi Mikati and Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri. They are expected to discuss the situation in Israel and Gaza as well as migration issues.

· In England and the UK, local elections will be held for ten mayoral seats. Also, a by-election will be held for a Parliament seat.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board member Philip R. Lane will give a virtual guest lecture at the University of Stanford in Stanford, California.

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (April)

· Hungary Balance of Trade Final (February)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (April)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ New Car Sales (April)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)/ PPI (March)/ New Car Registrations (April)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (April)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (March)

Friday, May 3, 2024

Global

· FAO Food Price Index (April)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia, Brazil, and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena in Asuncion, Paraguay, through May 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee to participate in the panel before the hybrid" Getting Global Monetary Policy on Track" event hosted by the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ Bank Lending (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)

· USA Unemployment Rate (April)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/03)

· Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (April)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Japan, a national holiday. It commemorates when a new constitution was ratified in 1945.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Judo Bank Services & Composite PMI Final (April)/ Home Loans (March)/ Investment Lending for Homes (March)

· Singapore Retail Sales (March)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (March)

· India Bank Loan Growth (April/19)/ Deposit Growth (April/19)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)

· France Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (March)/ New Car Registrations (April)

· Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/26)

· Euro Area ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (March)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

· Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI Final (April)

· Germany New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Saturday, May 4, 2024

Global

· The Organization of Islamic Cooperation Banjul Summit is being held in the Republic of Gambia through May 5.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives two commencement speeches at Georgia College and State University (GCSU) in Milledgeville, Georgia.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Remembrance Day in the Netherlands. At 8 p.m., citizens across the country hold a two-minute vigil honoring the civilians and soldiers who died since the beginning of World War II.

· Today is the 800th day of the War in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 5, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Panama holds general elections, choosing a new president and vice president. Currently, José Raúl Mulino of the Realizing Goals Party is leading over several other candidates.

· The 2024 Milken Institute Global Conference begins and runs through May 8 in Los Angeles.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to begin a tour of European nations beginning with a visit to France for meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron. He then will go on to visit Hungary and Serbia. The visit comes at a time when the European Commission has recently launched an investigation into alleged preferences Beijing gives to Chinese companies in medical devices and green products such as wind turbines and solar panels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 75th Anniversary of the Council of Europe being founded with the Treaty of London.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 4/28/24 Francis Kelly 4/28/24

The Global Week Ahead

April 21 - 28, 2024

As Israeli-Iranian tensions seem to be receding, events in China this week will likely garner the most attention from global markets. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Beijing for talk arriving just as the U.S. Congress passes legislation granting a military aid package to Taiwan (as part of the Ukraine/Israel military aid package) along with legislation banning TikTok from operating in the U.S., the release of a tough House of Representatives report detailing the Chinese Governments' role in supporting the fentanyl trade, and less than a week after President Biden announced his intention to triple tariffs on some Chinese steel imports.

Blinken is expected to press Chinese leaders to step back from providing Russia with substantial dual-use technologies and materials that are being used by the Russian military in its war on Ukraine. All in all, it will not be a leisurely visit for Blinken.

Amid Blinken's visit, China's National People's Congress meets this week to discuss new anti-money laundering laws, a second and final review of a major pending Tariff Law, and consideration of new national nuclear energy laws.

Also, this week, even though the Israeli counter-strike on Iran was seen as de-escalatory, markets and political leaders around the world will continue to watch the situation warily. Israel begins the observation of Passover Monday night (which goes through April 30), and the hope is the situation in Gaza cools down enough for renewed negotiations with Hamas for the release of Israeli hostages (something Turkish President Recep Erdogan met with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul to discuss). But all indications from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding a planned assault on the Gaz city of Rafah seem to be on track, despite the pleas from President Biden and other Western leaders not to do so.

Turning the global economic radar screen, markets will be focused on the U.S.'s Q1 GDP reading and U.S. personal income and outlays reports. Among those reports is the Federal Reserve's favorite economic metric—the personal consumption expenditures price index—which they use to factor in interest rates. Moving to Europe, the purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) for the Eurozone and important economic data from Germany and France will be released, giving the European Central Bank more guidance on rates going forward.

Looking at Asia this coming week, the big event will be on Friday when the Bank of Japan meets to decide on interest rates while Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) is also being released.

Below is what else of note we are watching around the world this coming week:

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuador will hold a series of referendums on reforms to fight organized crime which has become a major problem for the country.

· The Colombian government and the National Liberation Army will hold peace negotiations in Venezuela through April 22.

· Colombian opposition groups will protest the government of President Gustavo Petro in major cities.

· In Rio de Janeiro, supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will protest the criminal case against him.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Maldives hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will jointly open with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre the Hannover Messe, one of the largest industrial trade fairs in the world.

· The Basque region of Spain will hold local elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish President Recep Erdogan continues a series of diplomatic meetings in the Middle East. He met late last week with Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Istanbul to discuss the release of Israeli hostages. He now goes on to Iraq for discussions with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al Sudani about the situation in Iraqi Kurdistan and the operations of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) whom Turkey considers to be terrorist.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The UN’s African Science, Technology, and Innovation Forum will take place in Addis Ababa through April 22.

· The Connected Africa Summit 2024 will be hosted by Kenya’s information ministry in Nairobi.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 22, 2024

Global

· The Jewish festival of Passover begins tonight and goes through April 30.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). Also in the morning, the Security Council will resume a debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: The role of young persons in addressing security challenges in the Mediterranean. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The opening arguments will be made in the criminal trial of former President Donald Trump in New York. The case revolved around alleged hush money being paid to former porn star Stormy Daniels.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Economic Activity (February)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (March)/ PPI (March)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines and the U.S. commence the 39th Balikatan military exercises. The training exercise includes plans to simulate the sinking of an enemy warship and retaking territory from hostile forces. An estimated 16,700 personnel from both sides participate.

· Indonesia’s Supreme Court is expected to rule on Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto’s presidential election victory in February. He won the election, but the two losing candidates charged there were widespread irregularities.

· In New Delphi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to make an announcement with Elon Musk about the opening of a major Tesla factory ($3 billion) in India.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1 & 5Y

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)

· Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Sri Lanka PPI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg to discuss the Ukraine War and the EU’s response and sanctions on Russia.

· The European Parliament's plenary session will convene through April 25 for the last time before the upcoming EU elections in June. During this session, the Parliament is set to discuss new corporate due diligence requirements under the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive. They will also likely move on new amendments to the Common Agricultural Policy following widespread protests across the EU by farmers angry at export laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board President Christine Lagarde gives the Presidential lecture at Yale University.

· Euro Area Government Budget and Debt to GDP 2023/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

· Poland Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)

· Great Britain CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi travels to Pakistan to meet with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military leaders. In January, Iran launched a series of missiles and drones into Pakistan’s Baluchistan province against the Iranian Baloch militant group, Jaish ul-Adi. Raisi then travels to Sri Lanka for meetings with President Wickremesinghe.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)

· Jordan Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Counter-Terrorism Summit held in Abuja, Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu, in conjunction with the UN, will host representatives from the African Union and West African bloc Ecowas.

· The 5th Africa Climate Talks, hosted by the African Union Commission’s African Climate Policy Centre and African Development Bank, will take place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

· The African Counter-Terrorism Summit held in Abuja, Nigeria. President Bola Tinubu, in conjunction with the UN, will host representatives from the African Union and West African bloc Ecowas. The Summit goes through April 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and peace and security: Conflict-related sexual violence.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Redbook (April/20)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing and Services Index (April)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/19)/ Building Permits Final (March)

· Argentina Economic Activity (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s National People’s Congress meets through April 26. The agenda items to be discussed are likely to include money laundering laws, give a second review of a pending Tariff Law, and consider energy related laws.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (March)

· Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

· Singapore Core Inflation Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Health Ministers will hold informal meetings through April 24 in Brussels.

· Today is St George’s Day. It is celebrated in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Catalonia, Croatia, Cyprus, England, Georgia, Greece, North Macedonia, Portugal, Romania, and Serbia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo participates in a roundtable on AI organized by Regulation Partners in Lanzarote (Canary Islands), Spain.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the London campus of the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

· Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

· France HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/Services/ Composite PMI Flash (April)

· Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to Non-proliferation, and it is also scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Canada releases the summary of deliberations from the most recent interest rate decision.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/19)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/19)/ NY Fed Treasury Purchases 7 to 10 yrs.

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)

· Canada Retail Sales (February)

· Chile PPI (March)

· Paraguay PPI (March)

· Argentina Retail Sales (February)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be in Beijing for meetings with senior Chinese officials. This follows the recent visit of U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Blinken is expected to discuss the Ukraine War, President Biden’s recent announcement of his intent to triple tariffs on Chinese steel, the U.S. Congress’ newly passed ban on TikTok, and other major issues.

· Indonesia will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's 57th working group on small and midsize enterprises in Bali through April 25.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Australia Inflation Rate (Q1)/ CPI (Q1)/ RBA Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median CPI (Q1)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)

· Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Taiwan M2 Money Supply (March)

· Philippines Budget Balance (March)

· Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· North Macedonia holds the first round of presidential elections. The vote comes in the midst of heightened tensions between the country’s Albanian minority and Macedonian majority. If no candidate wins an outright victory, a run-off election will take place on May 8, which will coincide with the country’s planned parliamentary elections.

· Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold a meeting of the Council on Interethnic Relations.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the ECB retail payments conference 'Strengthening an innovative and integrated European retail payments market' in Frankfurt, Germany. Later in the day, he chairs a panel entitled "Strengthening the European retail payments landscape: Public and private sectors join forces" at the conference.

· ECB Board Member Elizabeth McCaul chairs a plenary session and delivers concluding remarks at a high-level seminar on "Governance and risk culture: going forward by looking back" jointly organized by the ECB and the Florence School of Banking and Finance of the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy.

· ECB Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives opening remarks at "Frankfurt liest ein Buch" organized by Frankfurt liest ein Buch e.V. in Frankfurt, Germany. Later in the day, she gives the opening speech at the Inaugural conference of the ChaMP Research Network "Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World ("ChaMP")."

· ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives the keynote speech at a high-level seminar on "Governance and risk culture: going forward by looking back" jointly organized by the ECB and the Florence School of Banking and Finance of the European University Institute (EUI), in Florence, Italy.

· Hungary Gross Wage (February)

· Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)

· Italy Business and Consumer Confidence (April)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (April)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (April)

· Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Qatar M2 Money Supply (March)/ Total Credit Growth (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 25, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to resume an open debate on the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)

· USA GDP Growth Rate (Q1)/ GDP Price Index (Q1)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/20)/ Real Consumer Spending Adv (Q1)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing and Composite Index (April)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

· Colombia Business Confidence (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Beijing International Automotive Exhibition begins in Beijing. Chinese and global automakers will be showcasing their latest models.

· Today is Anzac Day, celebrating the unity of Australia, New Zealand, and the UK in defense efforts and honoring the military dead. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will visit Papua New Guinea, where he and Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape will commemorate Anzac Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv (Q1)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/20)/ Coincident Index Final (February)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver a speech on the future of the European Union at the Sorbonne University in Paris, France.

· Italy celebrates National Liberation Day, commemorating the end of Nazi fascism in the country.

· Portugal celebrates Freedom Day, commemorating the Carnation Revolution in 1974 when, which threw off the military dictatorship.

· In London, the CBI National Business Dinner is held. The event is attended by senior figures from business, politics, and media. Traditionally addressed by a senior member of the government.

· Venice becomes the first city in the world to charge a daily access fee to day-trippers (€5) to tourists on day trips to the Italian city. It does not apply to those staying overnight and only applies on 29 dates between today and July 14, when there is peak tourist activity.

Economic Reports/Events –

· ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona, Spain.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

· Great Britain Car Production (March)/ CBI Distributive Trades (April)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

· France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)/ Jobseekers Total (March)

· Spain PPI (March)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending and Borrowing Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/19)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (March)

Friday, April 26, 2024

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former British Virgin Islands premier Andrew Fahie, faces sentencing after being convicted of conspiracy to import a controlled substance, conspiracy to commit money laundering, interstate and foreign travel in aid of racketeering, and other charges.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Manufacturing Sales Prel (March)/ Budget Balance FEV

· Brazil Bank Lending (March)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (April)/ Net Payrolls (March)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· USA PCE Price Index (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)

· Bank of Japan board will meet to discuss and decide interest rates, Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/

· Australia PPI (Q1)/ Import and Export Prices (Q1)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)IL

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Malaysia PPI (March)

· Singapore Industrial Production (March)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in Berlin, Germany, to discuss the situation in Ukraine and additional military support for the Ukrainian military.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area M3 Money Supply (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

· France Consumer Confidence (April)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)

· Spain Unemployment Rate (Q1)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (March)

· Greece Total Credit (March)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Real Wage Growth (February)/ Retail Sales (March)/ GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (April)

· Ivory Coast Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 27, 202

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The White House Correspondents’ Association Annual Diner is held in Washington, D.C. President Biden will address the audience.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Slovenia celebrates the Day of Uprising Against Occupation, commemorating the day when the Liberation Front of the Slovene Nation was formed in 1941 to fight the Nazi occupation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Sierra Leon’s Independence Day, celebrating when the country gained its independence from the UK in 19671.

· Togo celebrates Independence Day, marking the day in when the Togolese Republic was established in 1960.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Global

· G7 Climate, Energy, and Environmental Ministers meet in Torino, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexico’s three presidential candidates will participate in the 2nd televised presidential debate, which will focus on economic development, infrastructure building, and employment.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds by-elections for three seats in the Diet’s lower chamber. The elections come at a time when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida are at record-low poll numbers due to the handling of a political slush fund scandal.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Democratic Republic of Congo holds elections for provincial governors and vice governors.

Fulcrum Perspectives

Sunday, May 19, 2024

Monday, May 20, 2024

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Wednesday, May 22, 2024

Thursday, May 23, 2024

Friday, May 24, 2024

Saturday, May 25, 2024

Sunday, May 26, 2024

May 10 - 12, 2024

Sunday, May 12, 2024

Monday, May 13, 2024

Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Friday, May 17, 2024

Saturday, May 18, 2024

Sunday, May 19, 2024

May 6 - 12, 2024

May 6 - 10, 2024

U.S. Congressional Hearings

US Regulatory Meetings & Events

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

May 3 - 5, 2024

Energy, Economics, Elections, and Geopolitical Risk

April 28 - May 5, 2024

April 26 - 28, 2024

April 21 - 28, 2024

Sunday, April 21, 2024

Monday, April 22, 2024

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Thursday, April 25, 2024

Friday, April 26, 2024

Saturday, April 27, 202

Sunday, April 28, 2024

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