The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s New National Security Strategy Sends Shock Waves, EU European Ministers Meet in Ukraine, and the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, and Other Central Banks Decide on Interest Rates this Week

December 7 - 14, 2025

The big geopolitical event this coming week is not what is going to happen but rather what happened last week: The release of the Trump Administration’s U.S. National Security Strategy, released this past Wednesday.  The document – which is proving to be a geopolitical earthquake - is highly critical of Europe, blaming the continent and “other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife…”

The strategy also calls for an end to the expansion of NATO and criticizes Europe for “unrealistic expectations” on how to resolve the Ukraine War and has many wondering what the future commitment of the US to NATO actually will be.  

From a financial market perspective, the strategy makes clear President Trump is determined to preserve and grow U.S. financial market domination globally, stating “The United States boasts the world’s leading financial and capital markets, which are pillars of American influence that afford policymakers significant leverage and tools to advance America’s national security priorities…”

Meanwhile – or in spite of the strategy – EU European Affairs Ministers will be gathering in Lviv, Ukraine this week to discuss Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU.  Efforts to bring Ukraine into the bloc have faltered but this meeting is seen as likely jump-starting the talks again.

The big events this coming week will all be taking place in central banks.   The U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets this week and is expected to cut rates again.  Also meeting this week to discuss interest rates is the Reserve Bank of Canada, the Swiss Central Bank, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and Turkey’s Central Bank.

Looking at the overall economic and financial radar screen for the coming week, it is a fairly quiet week globally.   Starting in Asia, China reports on its trade balance on Monday and inflation (CPI and PPI) on Wednesday.  Japan releases its Economy Watchers survey for November on Monday.

Turning to Europe, the UK reports Industrial Production on Monday and October GDP on Friday.  Germany reports trade figures on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 8, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Industry and Tech Ministerial meeting takes place in Quebec, Canada.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Myanmar. This afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on OSCE Chairperson-in-Office.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit begins in New York and runs through Tuesday.  White House National Economic Director Kevin Hassett will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Auto Production & Exports (November)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Costa Rica          Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Uzbekistan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (October)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q3/ Bank Lending (November)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (November)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Markets and Industry) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will be receive a presentation on the ’Annual Overview Report on Simplification, Implementation and Enforcement’, followed by an exchange of views.

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council will meet in Brussels through December 9.  Ministers will discuss migration and asylum policy.

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul travels to China for discussion on steel and rare earth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give a guest lecture on "The transformation of money: technological disruption and the future of financial services" at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Industrial Production (October)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (October)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 9th Pan African Congress will be held in Lome, Togo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (November)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The 25th NATO Parliamentary Assembly Transatlantic Forum takes place in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins two days of meetings on interest rates.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (November)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (December/06)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September and October)/ WASDE Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (December/05)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese Communist Party’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) is expected to begin this week.  The CEWC is expected to ratify the decisions of the 4th Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party held this past October. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates and holds a press conference.

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (November)/ Building Permits (October)/ Private House Approvals (October)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (November)/ BOJ Gov Ueda Speech

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) will meet in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives the keynote speech at the ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (November)/ BOE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Ireland Construction PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Tanzania, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q4

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on the International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US government begins auctioning for oil and gas drilling rights in the Gulf of Mexico.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meets today and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jay Powell at 2:00 p.m.

·       The Bank of Canada meets to decide interest rates followed by a press conference with Bank of Canada Head Tiff Macklin.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/05)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (December)/

·       Brazil’s Central Bank meets to decide interest rates.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

China’s Premier Li Qiang holds the “1+10” Dialogue with the heads of major international economic organizations including President of the New Development Bank Dilma Rousseff, President of the World Bank Ajay Banga, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Secretary-General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development Rebeca Grynspan, Director-General of the International Labour Organization Gilbert F. Houngbo, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Chair of the Financial Stability Board Andrew Bailey, President of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank Jin Liqun, and Deputy Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Frantisek Ruzicka.

·       Australia’s new social media age ban for under-16s comes into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (October)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Japan PPI (November)

·       Australia RBA Chart Pack

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (October)

·       China Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (November)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (October)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/28)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (November)

·       Hong Kong Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs in Lviv, Ukraine through December 11.

·       UK  Chancellor Rachel Reeves appears before the Treasury Committee in Westminster to give evidence on her recent Budget speech.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a  keynote interview with Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf on "What are the futures of the euro and the dollar as global currencies, and what are the opportunities for the digital euro?" at 9th Edition of The Global Boardroom: "Achieving growth in a disrupted world" in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery chairs a panel discussion at ECB Banking Supervision Research Conference "Technological innovations in financial markets – Risks and opportunities in banking and regulation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in panel discussion at the 20th High-level meeting on financial stability and regulatory and supervisory priorities jointly organized by AMF-BCBS-FSI in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (October)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area           ECB Machado Speech

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (October)

·       Italy Industrial Production (October)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (October)

·       Greece Industrial Production (October)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (November)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (November)

·       Kuwait Interest Rate Decision

·       Oman Interest Rate Decision

·       Qatar Interest Rate Decision

·       United Arab Emirates Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       South Africa Retail Sales (October)

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (November)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (November)

Thursday, December 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on UNOCA/LRA. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC Metting on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This will be followed by a TCC Meting on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

·       OPEC publishes its monthly oil production report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Falkland Islands holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (October)/ Business Confidence (December)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (December/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/10)/ PPI (October and November)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (November)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (November)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Ecadour Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q3

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q4/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/06)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/06)

·       Australia Employment Change (November)/ Participation Rate (November)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss macroeconomic developments and members states’ draft budgetary plans.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through December 12.

·       Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the Covid-19 inquiry in London.

·       Portugal’s two main trade unions, the CGTP and UGT, call a nationwide general strike against the center-right government’s proposal to ease dismissals, expand outsourcing and cut certain compassionate leave entitlements, including bereavement leave for miscarriages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives the keynote speech at the Arab Monetary Fund, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision and the Financial Stability Institute high-level meeting in Dubai.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (November)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)/ Auto Production (November)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (October)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area           ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Burkina Faso Republic Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (October)/ Mining Production (October)/ Building Permits (October)/         Manufacturing Production (October)  

Friday, December 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to vote on 2713 Sanctions. Also in the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti sanctions, as well as consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the University of Cincinnati Real Estate Center Roundtable Series Program.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation before hybrid 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (October)

·       USA Fed Paulson Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/12)

·       Canada Building Permits (October)/ Capacity Utilization Q3/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (October)/ Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Thailand, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import and Export Prices (November)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (November)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (November)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (October)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       India Inflation Rate (November)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/28)/ Deposit Growth (November/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December/05)

·       China Vehicle Sales (November)/ New Yuan Loans (November)/ M2 Money Supply (November)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (November)/ Total Social Financing (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss Customs reform and the single currency package as well as imports of small parcels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Inflation Rate (November)/ Current Account (October)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Current Account (October)

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Construction Output (October)/ GDP (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (November)           

·       Hungary Construction Output (October)/ Industrial Production (October)          

·       France Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Jamahuri Day in Kenya, otherwise known as Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q4/ SACCI Business Confidence (October and November)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, December 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day in St. Lucia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 14, 2025

Global

·       The Jewish holiday of Hanukkah, the Festival of Lights, begins tonight.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile holds the second round of presidential elections between conservative Jose Antonio Kast and liberal Jeannette Jara.  Kast is expected to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

EU Defense Ministers and NATO Foreign Ministers Meet on Ukraine Peace Talks, Putin Goes to India, Canadian Prime Minister Carney May Come to Washington,  and Markets Brace for a Data-Heavy Week

November 30 - December 7, 2025

Efforts to reach a peace deal with Russia over their war against Ukraine will dominate the geopolitical agenda this week.  EU Defense Ministers will gather in Brussels on Monday to talk about President Trump’s amended peace plan – this comes after Ukrainian officials met with US officials in Miami, Florida, to try to hammer out final but critical aspects of a plan constructed by the US, Ukraine, and EU following Trump’s initial 28-point plan two weeks ago.

While EU defense ministers are expected to focus on how to further support Ukraine’s military defense,  NATO foreign ministers will gather in Brussels on Wednesday, where the focus will again be on the ongoing negotiations.  However, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to skip the meeting, sending Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau in his place.  Rubio’s absence is seen as unusual, especially with the tight timelines of the negotiations with Russia. No formal reason has been given.

While all this is going on, Russian President Vladimir Putin will be traveling to India for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to shore up relations between the two nations.  The visit comes following President Trump’s demands for India to stop buying Russian oil, which is being used to finance the war in Ukraine.  Putin describes the planned summit as one that underscores the “privileged strategic partnership” between the two countries.   It also shows how dependent Russia is now on Indian oil purchases to finance the war.

Finally, there appears to be a good chance Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will come to Washington, DC, this week for talks with President Trump over the ongoing trade dispute between the two countries.  Technically, Carney would be coming for the FIFA World Cup team drawing announcement for the upcoming World Cu,p which is being played in Canada, the US, and Mexico.  But talks on the sidelines with Trump are expected.

Looking at the global economic and finance radar screen this week, it is going to be a heavy week of economic and financial reporting. 

In the US, the University of Michigan survey for December is out on Friday, while the ISM indices for manufacturing are out on Monday and services on Wednesday.  Markets will also see delayed September indicators for industrial production out on Wednesday.   The Federal Reserve Board has gone into its “quiet period” before the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on interest rates on December 10th.  But Fed Chair Jay Powell will be giving short remarks at a commemorative event for former Secretary of State George Shultz, while Vice Chair Michelle Bowman will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee this week on regulatory issues.

Turning to Europe, CPIs will be out for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Switzerland, and Sweden.  Markets will be watching closely for any uptick in inflation.

In Asia this week, China releases its official PMIs on Sunday, and non-official PMIs are out on Wednesday.  And Japan’s Ministry of Finance’s Q3 Financial Statements Statistics are out on Sunday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Global

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       OPEC+ meets to discuss market conditions and production goals.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US will host Ukrainian officials in Miami, Florida to discuss next steps in the proposed Ukraine-Russia Peace Plan.

·       Honduras holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kyrgyzstan holds parliamentary elections.

·       The  Conference of the parties of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species takes place in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Australia Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland holds a referendum on environmental responsibility.

·       Transnistria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Scotland celebrates St. Andrew’s Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, will hold a party congress in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, December 1, 2025

Global

·       The U.S. assumes the presidency if the G20 from South Africa.

·       Slovenia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of December.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere.  Winter is officially here.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       St. Lucia holds parliamentary elections.

·       In the US, Cyber Monday is held with may e-retailers running special promotions.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay takes part in an online panel discussion as part of the Hoover Institution George P Shultz Memorial Lecture Series.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (October)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (November)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (November)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (November)/ Fed Chair Powell Speech/ Construction Spending (September & October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Mexico S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to Moscow, Russia for 20th round of China-Russia strategic security consultation.

·       Today is Kazakhstan’s First President’s Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (October), Anna Breman becomes Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor, succeeding Christian Hawkesby who replaced Adrian Orr in March.

·       Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a meeting with business leaders in Nagoya, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (November)/ Company Gross Profits Q3/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (November)/ Business Inventories Q3/ Commodity Prices (November)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

·       Japan Capital Spending Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (November)      

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October) 

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (October)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU defense ministers meet in Brussels. The meeting, which will exclusively focus on Ukraine, will be chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas.

·       Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer delivers the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet speech in London. This is traditionally a speech about foreign policy.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) meets in Brussels.

·       German-Polish government consultations are to be held with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Prime Minister Donald Tusk meeting in Berlin.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing in Brussels.

·       The EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation Council meets in Brussels.

·       Today is Portugal Independence Day, national holiday.

·       Today is Romania Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)             

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (November)          

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (October)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (November)            

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (October)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (October)/ M4 Money Supply (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Ukraine Current Account (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV begins a two-day apostolic visit, including prayers at the tomb of Saint Charbel Makluf at the Monastery of Saint Maroun.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Central African Republic Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Freedom and Democracy Day in Chad, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (November)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (November)

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Global

·       The OECD publishes its latest Global Economic Outlook.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee,

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (November)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (November)

·       USA Redbook (November/29)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/28)/ Total Vehicle Sales (November)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Laos National Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Export & Import Prices Q3/ Terms of Trade Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (December/02)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (November)

·       Japan Monetary Base/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Australia Building Permits (October)/ Current Account Q3

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (November)/ Wholesale Prices (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs (Health) Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The EU-Armenia Partnership Council meets in Brussels.

·       Ukraine’s parliament will debate the 2026 draft budget, which the country must adopt in line with the IMF’s demands.

·       French unions are calling for nationwide strikes calling for higher pay and better benefits.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England publishes the Bank Capital Stress Test of major lenders and its half-yearly Financial Stability Report into risks facing Britain’s financial system.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a  panel discussion at first Data Day "Burden Reduction in the Digitalization Era" organized by European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA).

·       The FT Global Banking Summit 2025 begins in London, running until Thursday.

·       Bank of England director prudential policy Philip Evans speaks at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association trading book capital conference on the implementation of Basel III.

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (November)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (November)           

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       France Budget Balance (October)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Slovakia Real Wages Q3

·       Spain Unemployment Change (November)/ New Car Sales (November)

·       Euro Area           ECB Buch Speech

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (October)/ PPI (October)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Euro Area Inflation Rate (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ CPI (November)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia to announce its 2026 budget, followed by a press conference with Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan.

·       Today is UAE National Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The West Africa Energy Cooperation Summit will convene in Accra, Ghana through December 3. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Total New Vehicle Sales (November)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (October)

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The New York Times DealBook Summit begins in New York. Among those speaking will be Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent , California Governor Gavin Newsom,  Dario Amodei, the C.E.O. and co-founder of Anthropic; Brian Armstrong, the C.E.O. of Coinbase; Mary Barra, the chair and C.E.O. of General Motors;  Larry Fink, the chairman and C.E.O. of BlackRock; Alex Karp, the C.E.O. and co-founder of Palantir; and Erika Kirk, the C.E.O. and chair of Turning Point USA.

·       Chilean presidential candidates Jeannette Jara and Jose Antonio Kast will participate in a debate ahead of the December 14 presidential runoff. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (September)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/28)/ ADP Employment Change (November)/ Import & Export Prices (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)/ ISM Services PMI (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Canada Labor Productivity Q3/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day tour of China with a scheduled meeting with his host, Chinese President Xi Jinping, in Beijing. The two leaders are expected to discuss bilateral ties as well as global affairs.

·       The FT Live Commodities Asia Summit begins in Marina Bay, Singapore, and online. The theme of the two-day gathering is how global fragmentation is reshaping commodity markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q3/ GDP Consumption Q3

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)   

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (November)

·       China RatingDog Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO foreign ministers’ meeting begins at the military alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, chaired by Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte.  Secretary of State Marco Rubio is planning on not attending.

·       German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier begins a state visit to the United Kingdom.

·       The European Commission will unveil the "Resource EU" economic security doctrine on how to secure rare earth and critical minerals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann is a panelist at the GIC College of Central Bankers Symposium in New York.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech at the 15th Workshop on Exchange Rates jointly organized by Banca d’ Italia, Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and National Bank of Belgium in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Russia S&P Composite & Services PMI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (November)/ Real Wage Growth (September)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Romania PPI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (October)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (November)/ PPI (October)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (November)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (November)

·       Jordan PPI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt holds the 2nd round of the House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (November)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (November)/ Business Confidence Q4

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3

Thursday, December 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

·       Brazil GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Car Production (November)/ New Car Registrations (November)/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/29)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (November/22)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/280/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (December/03)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (November)

·       Colombia Exports (October)/ PPI (November)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a two-day state visit to India.  The visit is significant as it comes following U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of punitive tariffs on India in August for purchasing Russian oil. The leaders are expected to "exchange views on regional and global issues of mutual interest," according to a statement issued by India's Ministry of External Affairs on Friday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/29)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/29)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Household Spending (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council meets in Brussels through December 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a policy panel  discussing "Priorities and challenges for fiscal policies in Europe" at ECB-IMF conference on fiscal policy and EMU governance in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane chairs a  keynote lecture by George-Marios Angeletos at ECB-IMF conference on fiscal policy and EMU governance in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the Cinco Días Business Innovation Awards ceremony in Madrid, Spain.

·       The Bank of England publishes monthly Decision Maker Panel data, from a survey of chief financial officers from small, medium and large businesses.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann speaks at the Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues conference in Paris, France.

·       Hungary Retail Sales (October)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (October)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (November)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (November)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (November)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (November)

·       Ireland Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GNP Q3

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/28)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The East African Community will hold its fifth ordinary summit of heads of states in Nairobi, Kenya through December 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q3

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (October)

Friday, December 5, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Environment Assembly (UNEA-7) Cities and Regions Summit begins in Nairobi, Kenya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will attend the final draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup to determine the groups for next summer’s 48-team competition being held in the US, Canada, and Mexico.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile Inflation Rate (November)

·       Brazil PPI (October)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (November)/ Employment Change (November)/ Participation Rate (November)/ Average Hourly Wages (November)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (November)

·       USA Personal Income & Spending (September)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (December/05)/ Consumer Credit Change (October)/ Used Car Prices (November)/ Factory Orders (September & October)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (November)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (October)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (November)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (December)/ Household Spending (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ Coincident Index (October)/ Leading Economic Index (October)  

·       South Korea Current Account (October)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/28)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (October)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a panel on "Global Imbalances and the International Monetary Order" at CEPR Paris Symposium in Paris, France.

·       Germany Factory Orders (October)/ New Car Registrations (November)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (November)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (November)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (October)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Spain Industrial Production (October)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Italy Retail Sales (October)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (October)

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Serbia PPI (November)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)/ GDP (October)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (November)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (November)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, December 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (November)/ Foreign Direct Investment (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Spain celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Finland's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Doha Forum begins and runs through December 7.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, December 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong holds a Legislative Council election, the second since Chinese authorities overhauled the system and imposed a strict national security law on the special administrative region. Only a small fraction of seats are directly elected, and all candidates are strictly vetted to ensure loyalty to Beijing. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz travels to Israel to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in South Africa, Trump Pushes Ukraine for a Decision on His Peace Deal, Washington Goes Quiet for Thanksgiving, But Will Publish Delayed Economic Data As EU CPIs Come Out

November 23 - 30, 2025

It is hard to believe we are already heading into Thanksgiving here in the US.   It will be a relatively quiet week, not only in the US (Congress is out again this week), but also internationally. 

But there are several important geopolitical events we are watching closely this week.  First, the G20 is meeting this weekend in South Africa.  The US decided to skip the entire meeting and not send any representatives – the first time the US has ever boycotted the G20.   The absence of the US limited the Summit's ability to achieve significant outcomes.   Interestingly, next year’s G20 meeting will be hosted by the US.

Also this week, President Trump’s controversial 28-point peace plan to end the Ukraine-Russia War is facing a tight deadline as Trump has demanded Ukraine give their decision on whether to accept it or not by Thursday.   The plan emerged following meetings between Russian and US officials (no EU officials were involved).  So far, there has been strong pushback from European leaders to Trump’s plan.  And Trump is expected to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday or Tuesday to hear his concerns.  So far, Trump has strongly criticized the European and Ukrainian arguments against his plan.

The plan, as laid out by Trump Special Envoy Steve Sitkoff, would require Ukraine to give up territory that Russia has not occupied.  We are watching for a significantly different counter-proposal to be presented by European leaders before Thursday. 

Meanwhile, tensions between the US and Venezuela continued to rise.  Several airlines have now halted flights to the country after heightened US military activity made such flights too risky.  As to what the Trump Administration is planning is still unclear.  Reports on Sunday suggest the US is preparing a massive media campaign (including airdrops of leaflets) urging Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro to leave the country immediately.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets are awaiting the release of delayed US economic reports (including September retail sales and durable goods orders). The reports were delayed due to the federal government shutdown. 

Also this week, the US Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday.  Then the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday.  The federal government and markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, and Friday will be an extremely quiet day for markets.  There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  And in Canada, we will see Q3 GDP numbers.

In Europe, Germany, France, and Italy will release their November CPIs on Friday.   Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Monday, and consumer confidence is out on Tuesday (as is France’s).   In the UK, the Chancellor, Christine Reeves, presents the Autumn Budget to Parliament.  There will be several European Central Bank (ECB) Board speeches this week, including one by ECB President Christine Lagarde.   Plus, the ECB releases minutes from its last meeting.

In Asia,  Japan publishes the November Tokyo CP this week, while Australia releases its October CPI. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week – we hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving!

Sunday, November 23, 2025

Global

·       The G20, being held in South Africa, concludes.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina holds early presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (September)               

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea-Bissau holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 24, 2025

Global

·        The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (Gaza/Lebanon), followed by consultations.

·       The UN’s 14th Forum on Business and Human Rights begins in Geneva and online. The theme is accelerating action on business and human rights amid crises and transformation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is out of session this week for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

·       The U.S. designation of Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization is due to take effect.

·       Canada's Newfoundland and Labrador province will hold a general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (November)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile PPI (October)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (October)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September & October)

·       Paraguay PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese financial markets and government are closed for the Labor Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (October)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)/ M2 Money Supply (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-African Union Summit takes place in Luanda, Angola through November 25.  On the sidelines of the Summit, the EU-Africa Business Forum takes place.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss EU-US and EU-China trade relations, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick scheduled to participate.

·       The Chair of the BBC, Dr Samir Shah, and Robbie Gibb, a non-executive member of the BBC board, face questions from Britain’s Member of Parliament on the Culture, Media and Sport Committee about editorial standards at the national broadcaster, following the selective editing of a Donald Trump speech by news program Panorama, which sparked a $1bn defamation threat from the US president and resulted in the resignations of the BBC director-general Tim Davie and BBC news chief Deborah Turness.

·       The Confederation of British Industry's annual meeting takes place in London.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases their report “Stablecoins on the rise: still small in the euro area, but spillover risks loom.”

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the  BratislavAI Forum on Artificial Intelligence and Education as part of OECD high-level event: 25th anniversary of "Better Policies for Better Lives" in Bratislava, Slovakia.

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a presentation at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech at the ECB-NGFS workshop “Vanishing Nature, Rising Risk: a Central Banking and Supervisory Lens on Ecosystem Degradation” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (November)/ Capacity Utilization (November)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q3

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (November)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (October)/ Employment Growth (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, November 25, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Libya. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold consultations on 1718 Committee (dealing with North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Suriname Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)/ Current Account Q3

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Redbook (November/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (September)/ House Price Index (September)/ Pending Home Sales (October)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (November)/ Money Supply (October)/ Business Inventories (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/21)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (October)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Asian Development Bank hosts the 14th Asia Smart Cities Conference in Yokohama, Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Index (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia RBA Payments System Board Meeting

·       Philippines Budget Balance (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Chile Joint Council meets in Brussels.

·       Today is the National Day of Bosnia & Herzegovina, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review pre-releases its report “A Systemic risks in linkages between banks and the non-bank financial sector.”

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the Central Bank of Ireland's Financial System Conference 2025 in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at the Climate Finance Week Ireland 2025 "Supervising Nature Risk: Regulation and Transition" organized by the United Nations Development Programme in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (October)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       France Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Spain PPI (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Poland Retail Sales (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q3

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (September)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Global

·       The OECD launches its Environmental Outlook report, assessing efforts to tackle the “triple planetary crisis” of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (October)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (November)

·       USA Beige Book is published/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/21)/ Initial Jobless Claims (November/22)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (November/15)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Chicago PMI (November)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (November/21)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (November/28)// Building Permits (September & October)/ Durable Goods Orders (October)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (September & October)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (September & October)/ Wholesale Inventories (September & October)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ New Home Sales (September & October)/ PCE Price Index (September & October)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (October)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (October)/ CPI (October)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (October)/ RBA Smith Speech

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Coincident Index (September)/ Leading Economic Index (September)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (October)

·       India M3 Money Supply (November/14)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review is released.

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an acceptance speech at the Transatlantikpreis ceremony 2025 at Steuben-Schurz-Gesellschaft in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the "Macro Outlook" session at conference on Global Market Insights: Navigating the new geopolitical environment organized by Santander CIB in Paris, France.

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (November)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (September)/ Industrial Production (October)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2025

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, November 27, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations is closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US celebrates Thanksgiving, a national holiday.  The Federal government and financial markets are closed.

·       St. Vincent and the Grenadines holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (November)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (October)

·       Canada Current Account Q3/ Average Weekly Earnings (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi gives a speech to local leaders in Oita, Japan.

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q3/ ANZ Business Confidence (November)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q3/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q3/ Private Capital Expenditure Q3

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (October)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Malaysia PPI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Education and Youth) meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks  at the 24th CEDE Congress of Executives in Zaragoza, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates on a panel discussion at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates and speaks at the EBI Conference 2025 "10 Years of SRB – Looking back and looking forward" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene speaks at the Goodbody 18th annual conference in Ireland.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Economic Confidence Index (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)/                Economic Sentiment (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Industrial Sentiment (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (November)/ Services Sentiment (November)/ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

·       Italy Business Confidence (November)/ Consumer Confidence (November)/ Industrial Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (October)

·       Spain Business Confidence (November)

·       Russia GDP (September & October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV begins a historic visit to Turkey and Lebanon through December 2.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (October)

Friday, November 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Black Friday, the start of the US Christmas season holiday shopping rush.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (October)/ Nominal Budget Balance (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ Net Payrolls (October)

·       Chile Copper Production (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Manufacturing Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (October)/ Fiscal Balance (October)

·       Canada GDP (September & October)/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (October)/ Cement Production (October)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (October)

·       USA Fed Balance Sheet (November/26)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Conference (November)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (October)/ Jobs/applications ratio (October)/ Tokyo CPI (November)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/22)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/22)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Construction Orders (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Export Prices (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (November)/ PPI (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       India Manufacturing & Industrial Production (October)/ Government Budget Value (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (November/14)/ Deposit Growth (November/14)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/21)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council (Culture and Sport) meets in Brussels.

·       The Institute for International Finance holds its European Banking Regulation & Supervision Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Today is Albania's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives keynote remarks at the 12th annual IIF Colloquium in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Car Production (October)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (November)

·       Germany Retail Sales (October)/ Import Prices (October)/ Unemployed Change & Persons (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (November)/ Bavaria CPI (November)/ Brandenburg CPI (November)/ Hesse CPI (November)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (November)/ Saxony CPI (November)/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (October)/ Participation Rate (October)/ Financial Stability Report

·       Hungary PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ KOF Leading Indicators (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (November)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (October)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (October)/ Jobseekers Total (October)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Current Account (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (November)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (November)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (November)

·       Greece Retail Sales (September)/ PPI (October)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Sector Credit (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Budget Balance (October)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (November)

·       Zimbabwe    Inflation Rate (November)

·       Angola GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (November)

Saturday, November 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Honduras General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 30, 2025

Global

·       Today is the first day of Advent.

·       OPEC+ meet to discuss market conditions and production goals.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Honduras holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

·       Today is Barbados Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Kyrgyzstan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (November)

·       Australia Cotality Dwelling Prices (November)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Switzerland holds a referendum on environmental responsibility.

·       Transnistria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Scotland celebrates St. Andrew’s Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (October)/ Private Bank Lending (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S. Supreme Court Reviews IEEPA, Trump Hosts the C5+1, The Coalition of the Willing meets in Spain, and Markets Look for Data as the U.S. Government Goes into Week 6 Being Shut Down

November 2 - 9, 2025

In global markets, it is going to be another momentous week as politics collide with economic and financial markets.  The U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments over the legality of President Trump’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) – the basis for which the President launched global tariffs on “Liberation Day.”   While a final decision is unlikely for several months, markets will likely get a sense of which way the court is leaning based on the questions and comments from the bench during the hearing.   To add to the drama, President Trump has said he is likely to attend the hearing in person—a historic move, as no sitting President has ever attended arguments before the Supreme Court in the Court’s 235-year history.

Markets are also nervously watching as tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela continue to rise.  There were reports this past week that the Trump Administration has decided to attack military sites in Venezuela, as well as drug cartel operational sites.  President Trump has denied the reports.  However, US Naval assets continue to grow in the region as an aircraft carrier group arrives to bolster the US presence.

Also this week, President Trump will host the C5+5 Summit, bringing together the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at the White House.  The meeting is seen as a message to Moscow of the U.S.’s intention to become more engaged in the region.  And it is also another move by the U.S. to secure greater access to critical minerals, as well as uranium (of which more than 40 percent of global uranium mining comes from).  Also, this week, President Trump will host the Hungarian Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, Spain will host a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing – 35 countries dedicated to assisting Ukraine in defeating Russia.  The meeting will focus on ways to raise pressure on Russia to come to the negotiating table (as opposed to simply finding new ways of supplying military aid to Ukraine).

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the Bank of England will decide on interest rates this week while the Bank of Japan releases minutes from their last interest rate meeting.  

In the U.S., markets will continue to struggle to gather economic data as the U.S. federal government goes into its sixth week of shutdown (and with little chance of an agreement being hammered out in the near term).  However, the ISM indices are being published this week – the manufacturing on Monday and the services on Wednesday.  And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out on Friday. 

In Europe, Germany and France will release trade balance figures this week.  And aside from the Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank and the Norges Bank meet on interest rates. Plus, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Tuesday on the economic outlook.

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates on Tuesday, and Japan releases wage data on Wednesday. 

Also, this week will be another big earnings week, particularly for defense, tech, and pharmaceutical companies, including Palantir, AMD, Qualcomm, ConocoPhillips, BP, Saudi Aramco, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk, Rheinmetall, and Leonardo.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, November 2, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Daylight Savings Time ends in the US.

·       Mexico celebrates the Day of the Dead Parade in Mexico City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)         

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 3, 2025

Global

·       The COP30 UN Climate Change Conference begins in Belem, Brazil through November 21.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly participates in a moderated conversation at the Forum Club of the Palm Beach.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem attends a fireside chat in Toronto at the Logic Summit.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (September)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)   

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ 2025- 26 Federal Budget released

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total Household Debt Q3/ Fed Daly Speech/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Construction Spending (August and September)/ Total Vehicle Sales (October)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will hold its annual financial summit – the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit – until Wednesday. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is expected to address the main summit on Tuesday. BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Citadel’s Ken Griffin will sit for fireside chats.

·       The U.S. and South Korean defense ministers will hold their first joint visit in eight years to the Joint Security Area in the Korean Demilitarized Zone.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       New Zealand Building Permits (September)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Household Spending (September)/ Private House Approvals (September)/ Commodity Prices (October)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       China Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers through November 4 in Brussels.

·       The NATO Operations Research & Analysis Conference takes place in Berlin, Germany.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits China for talks with his counterpart and Xi Jinping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Technological University Dublin in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá gives introductory remarks at Convención anual 2025 de la Asociación de Mercados Financieros 

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (October)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)/ PPI (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/24)         

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)       

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ New Car Sales (October)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       China's Vice President Han Zheng to visit Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

Global

·       The UN’s Second World Summit for Social Development will be held from 4 – 6 November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New Jersey and Virginia will hold closely watched gubernatorial elections.  And New York will elect a new mayor.

·       Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presents the annual federal budget to the House of Commons in Ottawa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision ice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on bank supervision and monetary policy at the 2025 Santander International Banking Conference, Madrid, Spain.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (October)/ Industrial Production (September)

·       USA Redbook (November/01)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/31)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August & September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (September)/ Factory Orders (August & September)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (August & September)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Exports (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Management Dialogue, a forum organized by Nikkei and Swiss business school IMD, will take place in Tokyo over two days, bringing together business leaders including Foxconn Chairman and CEO Young Liu and Johnson & Johnson Chairman and CEO Joaquin Duato.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (October)

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)          

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       India RBI Auction

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environment Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss European climate law and the climate target 2040.  They will also determine contribution levels for the UNFCCC.

·       Senior political directors from roughly 35 countries in the so-called Coalition of the Willing are set to meet Nov. 4 in Madrid to coordinate assistance for Ukraine. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at the Bulgarian National Bank conference "On the Doorstep of the Eurozone" in Sofia, Bulgaria.  Later, she participates in a press convergence during the Bulgarian National Bank Conference.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá speaks at Santander International Banking Conference in Madrid.

·       ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on Europe in Berlin, followed by discussion with Economist Editor-in-Chief Zanny Minton Beddoes.

·       Romania PPI (September)

·       France Budget Balance (September)/ New Car Registrations (October)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (October)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/     Balance of Trade (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court hears arguments on the legality of about 60% of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

·       President Trump will attend a two-day America Business Forum in Miami, whose attendees will include business, government, sports and entertainment figures.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (August)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/31)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/31)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ ISM Services PMI (October)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/31)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Caroly Rogers will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance.

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (October)

·       Colombia PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Shanghai will host the 8th annual China International Import Expo (CIIE), featuring German pharmaceutical maker Bayer and American fashion brand Coach among 4,100 companies from 155 countries.

·       The Pitcairn Islands hold mayoral and island council elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Employment Change Q3/ Unemployment Rate Q3/ Labour Costs Index Q3/ Participation Rate Q3/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Index (October)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (October)

·       China Rating Dog Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q3

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Director of Insurance Supervision Shoib Khan gives a speech at MarketforceLive Insurance Innovators Summit 2025.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Germany Factory Orders (September)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       France Industrial Production (September)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (October)/ BoE Khan Speech/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Serbia PPI (October)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (October)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (October)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (October)

Thursday, November 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. President Donald Trump will host the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Washington for the second C5+1 summit, his first direct engagement with the region's heads of state in a multilateral format.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christoper Waller gives a speech on central banking and the future of payments at the Bank of Canada 2025 Annual Economic Conference in Ottawa, Canada.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr participates in virtual “Community Development" discussion hosted by Fed Communities.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives lecture on “The Natural Rate of Interest" before event organized by the Goethe University Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before an Economic Club of New York webinar.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Fixed Income Analysts Society, Inc.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Consumer Finance Institute" before the “New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets Conference 2025" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/31)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/05)/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October)/ Wholesale Inventories (August and September)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (October)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (October)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s eastern state of Bihar holds the first phase of elections, a contest seen as a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (September)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (September)/ Overtime Pay (September)/ Reuters Tankan Index (November)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Sixth Partnership for Transatlantic Energy Cooperation (P-TEC) takes place through November 7th in Athens, Greece.  The meeting brings together government officials and industry leaders to discuss energy security and affordability, infrastructure projects, and investment opportunities.

·       The UK Parliament goes into recess until November 11.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank holds the second day of their conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at 26th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference "The Evolving Landscape of Global Trade and Financial Integration" organized by the International Monetary Fund in Washington D.C,

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives: opening remarks at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a webinar "Euro area current policy challenges" organized by Natixis CIB Research.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a panel discussion at 20 Jahre Finanzstabilitätsbericht in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Germany Industrial Production (September)/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

·       Romania Retail Sales (September)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (September)

·       Spain Industrial Production (September)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Euro Area  HCOB Construction PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)/ ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (October)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (October)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ BoE Monetary Policy Report

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/31)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (October)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, November 7, 2025

Global

·       G20 Finance and Health Ministers will hold a virtual meeting to discuss mobilizing financing mechanisms to combat health challenges globally.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán meets Donald Trump at the White House to discuss a path to another US-Russia meeting and to seek an exemption from US energy sanctions.

·       U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to announce major changes to how the Pentagon acquires and transfers weapons to foreign countries.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits to discuss the repatriation of ancient Mexican codices.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on AI and the Economy at the Euro20+, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech on Stablecoins and Monetary Policy at the BCVC Summit 2025, New York, N.Y.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2025 organized by the European Central Bank.

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (September)/ Non-Farm Payrolls (September and October)/ Unemployment Rate (September and October)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September and October)/ Participation Rate (September and October)/ Government Payrolls (September and October)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September and October)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (September and October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September and October)/ Used Car Prices (September and October)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Brazil PPI (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (October)/ Auto Exports & Production (October)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (October)/ Employment Change (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (October)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (October)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/01)        

·       Philippines Industrial Production (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (September)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Singapore           Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/31)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       New Lady Mayor of the City of London Dame Susan Langley takes office at the Silent Ceremony at Guildhall, becoming the City’s 697th mayor and the first to use the title Lady Mayor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at the Bundesbank Euro20+ event in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England’s BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks in the national Monetary Policy Committee agency briefing.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta will participate in a panel at the European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Car Registrations (October)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (October)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (October)       

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Treasury Cash Balance (October)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (September)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Vehicle Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Global

·       In Bolivia, Rodrigo Paz assumes the presidency, marking a political shift to the right after more than two decades of rule by the Movement for Socialism party.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Cambodia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-CELA (Community of Latin America and Caribbean States) Summit begins in Santa Marta, Colombia and runs through November 10.  Hosted by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, the summit will focus trade, investment, and green and digital transition as well as fighting organized crime and human trafficking.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

CORRECTED: The Global Week Ahead

China Holds the 4th Party Plenum, Japan Elects a New Prime Minister, Rubio to Meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, the ASEAN Summit Begins, and It’s a Big Earnings Week

October 19 - 26, 2025

It is going to be a week of momentous meetings, likely to set the direction for a number of issues globally for the coming year.  First, the Chinese Communist Party is holding its 4th Party Plenum in Beijing.  The meetings come at a critical time for China as the economy continues to struggle to regain its footing, eight senior military officials were either arrested or kicked out of the Party last week, and President Xi continues to battle President Trump over tariffs and access to rare earth minerals.

Meanwhile, following President Trump’s meeting Friday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov in Budapest to resume discussions on how to bring either a ceasefire or an outright end to the war in Ukraine.  Late this weekend, it was reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone call with President Trump this past week, reiterated his demand that Ukraine surrender large portions of occupied land in return for peace.  Trump reportedly, in turn, urged Zelensky to consider the terms.  Trump also denied Zelenskyy and Ukrainian military forces access to the much-sought Tomahawk missiles.

In the Middle East this week, Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to travel to Israel Tuesday to push for further implementation of the Gaza peace agreement while US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trum[‘s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected to meet with Qatari and Israeli representatives on the next steps on the shaky plan.  The past week saw continued violence in Gaza as Hamas began going after rival factions, executing dozens of fighters and leaders as they struggle to retain some semblance of control in the region.

This coming Sunday, the ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.  President Trump is expected to attend and preside over the peace signing ceremony between Thailand and Cambodia.   Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss ways to de-escalate new tensions between the US and China, which sprang back up last week when China announced a new ban on critical mineral sales globally.

This all comes in advance of a much-hoped-for meeting between Trump and President Xi in two weeks at a second ASEAN Summit, this time being held in Gyeongju, South Korea between October 31-November 1.  But there is concern in the markets about the meeting and if it might be called off at the last meeting as much depends on how well the meeting between Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He go.

Also happening this week will be the election of Japan’s new Prime Minister on Tuesday.  It appears that Sanae Takaichi has successfully put together a new coalition with Japan’s Innovation Party with her Liberal Democratic Party, which will make her Japan’s first female prime minister.  She will attend the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur and then meet with President Trump on October 27-29 in Japan to discuss finalizing a trade deal and then attend the second ASEAN Summit in South Korea on October 31.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big event will be in the US, where, despite the ongoing government shutdown, government economists have been called back to work to assemble the September CPI numbers for release on Friday.   All other government data releases are being delayed because of the shutdown so markets remain dependent on private sector data. The Conference Board releases its leading index on Monday, and the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment report on Friday.  Canada’s CPI is out Tuesday.

Turning to Europe, markets will be listening closely to several speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.  Also, the UK will be releasing September inflation figures on Wednesday and retail sales and consumer confidence numbers on Friday.  Germany and France have manufacturing PMIs on Friday. 

In Asia, China will be releasing Q3 GDP and September economic figures on Monday.  Japan releases trade data on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.  And South Korea’s central bank interest rate decision is on Thursday.

Finally, we would note this is going to be a big earnings announcement week as market participants will get a deeper understanding of how the trade wars and the risk of inflation are impacting corporations globally.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

·       The EU-Iraq Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Government shutdown is expected to continue throughout the week ahead.

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travels to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump, their first face-to-face meeting. Albanese is expected to seek reassurances over America's commitment to the AUKUS submarine deal and promote access to Australia's strategic materials such as rare earths as leverage in the talks with the American leader.

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Hungary to discuss Ukraine.

·       Today is Heroes’ Day in Jamaica, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA CB Leading Index (September)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China holds the 4th Chinese Communist Party Plenum in Beijing.  The four-day forum will discuss the country’s next five-year plan.

· In Vietnam, the National Assembly holds its winter session, which lasts until December 11.  They are expected to discuss 49 laws and 4 resolutions -- a record number. Vietnam, one of the fastest-growing economies, is ramping up wide-ranging reforms that the government expects will help fuel double-digit economic growth in 2026, up from an expected 8% in GDP growth this year.

·       Diwali is celebrated in India through October 25.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (October)/ House Price Index (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Communist Party Fourth Plenum        

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan.

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The Foreign Ministers will discuss the state of the War in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the EU-Indo-Pacific relations.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Luxembourg.

·       European Commission President  Ursula von der Leyen participates in the Summit of Southern European Union countries (MED-9) in Portorož, Slovenia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at WE_ARE_IN conference in Frankfurt. European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Boris Vujcic attend a roundtable in New York.

·       Germany PPI (September)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area Current Account (August)/Construction Output (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Slovakia Current Account (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)/ M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q3

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TVV meeting on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve holds its Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C.  Federal  Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/18)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/17)    

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (August)/ Imports (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Costa Rica          Balance of Trade (September)

·       EARNINGS: Netfilx, GE, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, Capital One, Danaher, Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, 3M, General Motors, EQT, Equifax, PulteGroup, Haliburton

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Diet will vote on who will be the next Prime Minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Credit Card Spending (September)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/21)          

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks on a panel at the ISDA/AFMA Derivatives Trading Forum in Sydney.

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)             

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia is expected to begin 10-days of naval exercises in the Pacific in waters close to South Korea and Japan.

·       The Helsinki Security Forum takes place in Helsinki.  The event brings together experts and decision-makers to explore European security and defense.  It will also address how Europe can boost its competitiveness, invest in Defence, and shape its security order. High-level delegates are expected to attend, and participants include representatives from the Defence industry, research institutions, and government bodies.

·       The EU-Uzbekistan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They will discuss the Multiannual Financial Framework 2028-2034, Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary, and other issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote address at the Norges Bank's Climate Conference followed by moderated discussion with Al Gore in Oslo, Norway.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the House of Lords' Financial Services Regulation Committee on the growth in private markets in the UK following reforms introduced after the 2008 financial crisis.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements DLT Innovation Challenge Showcase in London.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (September)

·       Greece Current Account (August)

·       Slovenia PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The ISS/Africa Futures Conference 2025 takes place online.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)       

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial inclusion at the Crossing the Credit Barrier Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/17)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/17)      

·       Mexico Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (August)/ Leading Indicator (September)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, SAP, IBM, Thermo Fisher, AT&T, UniCredit, Barclays, Moody’s, Southwest Airlines, Alcoa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (September)

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan, Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Egypt Summit will be held in Brussels.

·       The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Luxembourg.

·       In London, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosts the 2025 Berlin Process Summit in partnership with Germany. The meeting aims to support stability, security, and economic co-operation in the western Balkan region.

·       The Global Security and Innovation Summit, a two-day event to discuss global security challenges and to explore new security technology, opens in Hamburg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the  Frankfurt Finance & Future Summit in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a talk at the Barcelona Real Assets Meeting 2025 in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods gives a speech at the Annual City Banquet at Mansion House in London.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)/ BoE Woods Speech

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Russia Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva travels to Indonesia and Malaysia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will testify before the  U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Retail Sales (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (September)   

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (October)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/22)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay PPI (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNNGS: T-Mobile, Blackstone, Intel, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Newmont, Freeport-McMorRan, Ford Motor, Baker Hughes, Dassault Systems, PG&E, Dow, EvolutionAB, Atlas Copco

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/18)            

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (September)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Euro Summit takes place in Brussels. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane accepts the occasion of the conferral of the 2025 Pádraig Ó hUiginn Award to him in Dublin, Ireland.

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee, Jonathan Hall, gives a speech on the Bank of England Financial Committee’s mandate and the search for a social optimum in London.

·       France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)    

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Libya Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The United Nations Organization: Looking into the Future..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will hold an Open Board Meeting.  The Board will consider proposals to enhance the transparency and public accountability of the Board’s stress testing framework and request comments on the scenarios for the Board’s 2026 supervisory stress test.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ Current Account (September)/      Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (October)

·       Chile PPI (September)

·       USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/24)/ New Home Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, NatWest, Saab, Sanofi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech in Sydney/Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)      

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)          

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland holds Presidential elections.

· European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council, meets with Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Uzbekistan, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat titled 'Il nuovo quadro della finanza internationale' at Cambio di Paradigma organized by Il Mattino in Naples, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Francois Villeroy de Galhau speak at the Berlin Global Dialogue.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ Car Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)     

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Zambia's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In  Japan, the Mount Fuji Dialogue begins.  The gathering unites influential government officials and businesspeople from the U.S. and Japan, will be held in Tokyo. Hosted by the Japan Center for Economic Research and the Japan Institute of International Affairs, the annual event comes amid flaring U.S.-China tensions and political uncertainty in Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the 2025 Berlin Global Dialogue in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina holds a referendum in the ethnic Republika Srpska to vote on whether they accept the courts’ decision to convict Milorad Dodik and later to remove him as RS president. Dodik has also stated that a referendum on independence for the Serbian entity might be held at a future date.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ivory Coast holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia.  Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN's 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summer Time – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Peace Comes to Gaza and Hostages Are To Be Released, The US Government Remains Shutdown, China Cuts off Rare Earth Exports, Argentina’s Milei Meets with Trump Again, and The Annual World Bank/IMF Take Place in Washington, DC

October 12 - 19, 2025

It will be a historic week as Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump gather in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to witness the signing of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas brokered by Trump. And, after more than two years of captivity, the remaining Israeli hostages are scheduled to be released on Monday. More than 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and more than 1700 detainees rounded up since Israeli forces entered Gaza are to be released.

The challenge now is to keep the ceasefire going in the second phase of the agreement.  This includes questions about the future governance of Gaza, getting Hamas to disarm, and how to rebuild the devastated region.

Also this week, Argentine President Javier Milei will travel to Washington to meet with President Trump to discuss the newly inked bailout package the US is giving Argentina.  The US Treasury intervened in the Argentine currency market to stabilize the peso.  Milei is hoping to garner further support from Trump as mid-term elections approach in Argentina.

All this comes as China moved to impose tough new export controls on rare earths, lithium-ion batteries, and synthetic diamonds – a move which shocked many countries and triggered President Trump to impose new 100 percent tariffs on China on Friday.  Markets are trying to ascertain how serious and long-term China’s moves are, or if it is merely a negotiating tactic by China’s President Xi in advance of a possible meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN meeting later this month. 

Finally, the US federal government remains shutdown and from all indications, will remain shut down this coming week.  There appears to be little to no real negotiations between Congressional Democrats and Republicans, and the House of Representatives is expected to remain out of session this coming week.  Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has begun laying off federal employees as opposed to furloughing them.  And with the shutdown, a number of US data releases will not be released.

This brings us to this week’s global economic and financial radar screen.  Dominating the week will be the  2025 World Bank/IMF Annual meetings and the many side events being held in Washington – the most important being the Institute for International Finance’s annual member meeting – where numerous central bankers will pop by to give speeches and participate on panels.

Looking at the Americas, with the US federal government shutdown still going on, most major data releases are either being canceled or delayed (leaving the Federal Reserve will remain flying somewhat blind on data in advance of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, October 28 – 29.)   The most important now-delayed release is the September CPI which was scheduled to come out October 15th.  That report has now been rescheduled to October 24.

What is likely to guide markets is the large number of Federal Reserve and regional Fed speeches this week, including Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday.   Also, we would note this week we will see a number of major bank and financial institutions earnings reports including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BlackRock.

 Turning to Europe, we will see Eurozone labor market data releases and the German ZEW Survey on Tuesday, GDP numbers on Thursday, and lots of speeches from European Central Bank board members – including several by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

In Asia this week, the big economic releases will be coming out of China where trade figures are published on Monday and inflation data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Afghan Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqui, will visit India and will reportedly discuss developmental assistance, among other things.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections. President Paul Biya is running for his 8th term in office. If he wins, he will be in office as president until he is 100 years old.

·       Equatorial Guinea celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 13, 2025

 Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting week begins in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil production report.

·       The Nobel Prize in Economics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump travels to Egypt to attend the Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza, negotiated by Trump.

·        

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets are closed.

·       It is Columbus Day in the US.  Stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed, as are most banks, and the US government is closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting," Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.”

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       President Xi Jinping to attend the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders’ Meeting on Women in Beijing, where he will deliver a keynote speech.

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand travels to New Delhi to meet with meets with India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.  Anand then travels to Singapore for a meeting with Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan. From there, Anand travels to China for talks with China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Services NZ PSI (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Inflation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Albania to meet with President Bajram Begaj and Prime Minister Edi Rama.  She will participate in the opening ceremony of the EU-Western Balkans Investment Forum.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with President Jakov Milatovic and Prime Minister Milojko Spajic.

·       The 71st Annual Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly will be held in Ljubljana, Slovenia

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers through October 14 in  Horsens, Denmark.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to discuss the rule of law, the “fight against Russian impunity,” and Eurojust.

·       NATO’s annual two-week nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon will begin in the Netherlands.

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis in Athens, Greece.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene delivers the keynote address at the SPE Annual Conference in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (August)

·       Turkey Current Account (August)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza.

·       The remaining living Israeli hostages in Gaza will likely be released either today or tomorrow as part of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement.

·       President Trump is expected to travel to Jerusalem, Israel, where he will address the Israeli Knesset.

·       Israel celebrates Simchat Torah Eve. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Global

·       The IMF publishes their World Economic Outlook report.

·       The International Energy Agency monthly oil market report is published.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions. In the morning, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

·       The Institute for International Finance Annual Membership meeting begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through October 17. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump is expected to welcome Argentina’s President Javier Milei to the White House. They are expected to discuss the US’s recent bailout of the Argentine economy and regional security issues.

·       The 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber imports from Canada and elsewhere go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers holds a fireside chat at the B.C. Business Summit in Vancouver.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September/Redbook (October/11)

·       Canada Building Permits (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Aeon, BlackRock, BP, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, LVMH, Publicis Groupe, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. and China are due to begin collecting port fees on each other's ships, in an escalating competition for the seas. Washington announced its docking charges earlier this year to challenge Chinese maritime dominance and revive American shipbuilding. On Friday, Beijing said it would respond in kind.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)     

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)

·       China New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing SE

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss civil protection and health preparedness, the Schengen Agreement, Migration and other issues.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina.  She will meet with the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and meet with Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers Borjana Krišto; visits the Srebrenica Memorial Centre.

·       Today is Defender of Ukraine Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives remarks at the ECR Expert Policy conference "What Future for the Digital Euro?" organized by European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum 2025 in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the Ethics and Compliance Conference organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor presents remarks and a fireside chat with FT columnist Gillian Tett at Kings College, Cambridge, on ‘diversion ahead’.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ECB Donnery Speech     

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Romania Current Account (August)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-monitored Gaza-Egypt pedestrian border crossing reopens.

·       Today is Yemen Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings formally begin in Washington, D.C.

·       G7 Finance Ministers are expected to meet in Washington to discuss increasing pressure on Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on “Economic Mobility" before the United Way Regional Summit on Economic Mobility for Children and Youth.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on artificial intelligence at the 2025 D Fintech Week.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/10)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/10)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (August)/ Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Abbot Laboratories, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group., Progressive

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Diet will hold an extraordinary session to elect a new prime minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a fireside chat at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at a Citi conference in Sydney.

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       China Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q3

·       India Unemployment Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) meeting in Brussels. EU Defense Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte chairing the session.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the Arab League Summit in Moscow.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister Đuro Macut.  Later, she travels to Kosovo to meet with President Vjosa Osmani and caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Later in the day, she travels to North Macedonia: to meet with President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova and Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and then meets President of the Assembly Afrim Gashi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening address at the 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.  Later, he gives remarks at the 25th anniversary of Alantra in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel at the IIF Annual Membership meeting in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor, financial stability, Sarah Breeden is a panelist at the Fintech Foundation 2025 DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden speaks in a panel event at the Single Resolution Mechanism 10th Anniversary Conference in Brussels.

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)/ Residential Property Prices (August)            

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Housing Starts (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before a virtual Aiken County Chamber of Commerce event.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Governor Christopher J. Waller, New York, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks at the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference (virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the  Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Risk Management Association.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City.

·       USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October/NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/10)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/15)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/11)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/11)/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Inventories (August)

·       EARNINGS: Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, ABB, CSX, Interactive Brokers, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Marsh McLennan, Nordea Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor, Travelers, United Airlines, US Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Okinawa.

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)/BoJ JGB Purchase/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg.

·       The European Commission will unveil its "Roadmap for Defence Readiness." 

·       The 2025 Arctic Circle Assembly will meet in Iceland.  It is expected that more than 2,000 people representing more than 60 countries will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an IMF's Debate on the Global Economy: Shaping Economic Policies in the Face of Disruptive Change in Washington D.C., USA

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the SSM Conference on Digitalization in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a roundtable discussion "Central Banking and Supervision in a Geopolitically Fragmented World: Risks, Responses, and Cooperation" organized by Toronto Centre in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel panel "Monetary Crosscurrents: Rethinking Frameworks Amid Trade and Policy Fragmentation" at 2025 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Growth and Innovation in an Uncertain World" in Washington D.C.,

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Friday, October 17, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem discusses the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Institute for International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.

·       USA Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Building Permits (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       EARNINGS: American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, Truist Financial, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The KMT, Taiwan's biggest opposition party, chooses a new leader as it seeks a path back to power. The KMT has lost three straight presidential elections to the Democratic Progressive Party, most recently in January 2024. But it enjoys a legislative majority with its smaller partner, the Taiwan People's Party, and it has momentum after vanquishing efforts to recall some of its lawmakers this summer. The winner will be in a position to influence how Taiwan handles cross-strait tensions with China and tricky ties with the U.S..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/11)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore     Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/03)/ Deposit Growth (October/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives remarks and takes questions at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) "Addressing Regulatory Fragmentation" roundtable discussion in Washington D.C.

·       Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Annual Conference.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

·       UN Security Council Resolution 2231 will expire today, unless extended. The Security Council unanimously adopted the resolution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bolivia Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion at Group of Thirty opening panel "Global Economic Outlook" in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollon participates on a panel discussion at Euro50Group meeting in Washington D.C.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

Israeli-Hamas Peace Talks Take a Big Step, Trump Meetings with Canada’s Carney, the EU Parliament Holds No-Confidence Votes, the US Government Looks to Be Shut Another Week, and Markets Await a Flood of Central Bank Speeches

October 5 - 12, 2025

The world is watching events unfold in the Middle East as Hamas appears to be ready to accept a good portion of President Trump’s peace plan proposal, including releasing all remaining hostages (just as we come up on the 2 year anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on Israel).  There are several unresolved points but US negotiators led by Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff are in Egypt now working to finalize the deal but there is real hope the hostages will be released this week.

Also this week, President Trump has invited Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to meet with him at the White House on Tuesday to discuss both trade issues as well as mutual security concerns.  Trade negotiators have been careful not to oversell the outcome of the meeting but there is hope a deal can be struck between the two leaders.

Meanwhile in Washington, the federal government shutdown continues, and House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has announced the House of Representatives will not return to work unless Democrats accept the continuing resolution they passed two weeks ago.  At this point, we do not see a deal emerging soon but there is always hope.

In Europe, the European Parliament is scheduled to hold two no-confidence votes against EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden.  This is the second time no-confidence votes have been brought against von der Leyden in the last three months. While both votes are expected to fail, it shows how split the Parliament is on issues ranging from trade to climate.

Staying in Europe, the Nobel Committee will begin announcing winners of their prestigious prize on Monday.  The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, and the Nobel Prize for Economics will be announced next Monday.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are awaiting a flood of speeches from central bankers.  In the US alone, we count sixteen Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve President speeches over the course of five days, including a speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell. 

And in the EU, we count eleven scheduled European Central Bank (ECB) board member speeches including two from ECB President Christine Lagarde (and more are expected to be announced) plus Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking in Scotland. That is a lot of data for the markets to take in and, in our view, a bit odd considering the week of October 12th is the Annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, DC where there will be countless central bankers speaking.

With the US government shutdown still going, there will be limited economic data releases.  The Federal Reserve releases minutes from their last Open Market Meeting.  And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out Friday.

In Asia, China’s Gold Week holiday continues until October 8th.   Japan, which has just elected its first woman as Prime Minister, releases its Regional Economic Report on Monday and the Consumer Activity Index on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

·       Israel is expected to begin mediated negotiations with Hamas in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Monday, October 6, 2025

Global

·       The Nobel Committee begins announcing winners of prizes. Today’s prize will be for physiology or medicine.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and Peace and Security.

·       The World Trade Organization’s General Council meeting takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court begins a new term, hearing cases.

·       Unless there is a last-minute breakthrough agreement between Congressional Republicans and Democrats over a Continuing Resolution bill, the federal government will remain shut this week and the House of Representatives will stay out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks to CFA Society Kansas City on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Azerbaijan hosts the 12th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament is expected to hold two separate no-confidence vote son European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sometime this week.  Both votes are expected to fail.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Scotland’s Global Investment Summit 2025 being held in Edinburgh.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening remarks at the Diario Expansión: XVI Encuentro Financiero in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2025: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania Retail Sales (August)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (August)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ ECB Lane Speech/ Retail Sales (August)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Serbia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan PPI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (AU).

·       Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event begins and runs through October 8. This will be closely watched by economist for any slowdown in shopping by consumers.

·       The 2025 Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Donald Trump will host Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House for talks on trade.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran

·       Sits for a fireside chat at the Managed Funds Association (MFA) Policy Outlook 2025 in New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran gives a talk at the Deutsche Bank 2025 Fall Macro Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in discussion on the economic outlook at event hosted by Fisk University.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation on artificial intelligence and the economy before the Star Tribune North Star Summit 2025.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Consumer Credit Change (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The FIATA World Congress – global freight forwarders – in Hanoi, Vietnam to discuss various topics, such as challenges in the new global trade landscape and how to navigate them. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is scheduled to attend the event

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q3/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/07)       

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)/ RBA Annual Report 2025

·       Japan Household Spending (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Economic Index (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Motorbike Sales (September)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Singapore     Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech followed by a Q&A session at Business France event 'Business en Européens' in Paris, France.

·       Germany Factory Orders (August)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)/ Treasury Gilt 2028 Tender

·       Hungary Industrial Production August)

·       France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       This is the 2nd anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on civilians in Israel and taking of hostages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Global

·       In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia and the 2713 Committee. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).  

·       In Washington, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain raiser speech for the upcoming 2025 Annual Meetings being held next week.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louise, Missouri.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on community development and Indian Country the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Center for Indian Country Development 10th Anniversary and Data Summit: Braiding the Past and Future of Native Economies, Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (October/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/03)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/03)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Paris Europlace Forum 20254 will take place in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Uedo speaks at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo.

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Bank Lending (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Survey (September)

·       Australia Building Permits (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at 55th anniversary event of the Werner Report "Itinéraires luxembourgeois et européens" in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion at the International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (August)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (September)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).     

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Literature is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Future of Community Banking: Challenges and Opportunities” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis, Minesota.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Looking Toward the Future” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/08)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/04)/ Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)                 

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (September)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg.  The EU Finance Ministers will discuss macroeconomic and fiscal monitoring including preparation for upcoming international meetings.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 10 in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a roundtable discussion and Q&A at the Irish Association of Investment Managers in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)   

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uganda Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Friday, October 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in fireside chat before the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce Public Policy Speaker's Series.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before the 19th annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Charting the Course" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Wages (September)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te is expected to deliver a national day address.

·       Tajikistan will host a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Dushanbe.   They will simultaneously host the 2ndCentral Asia-Russia Summit.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend both events.

·       North Korea is expected to show off its newest weapons at a large military parade to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party. High-ranking officials from China and Russia are expected to participate. The last time North Korea held a large military parade was in July 2023 to mark the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)

·       Australia RBA Bullock Speech/ RBA Kent Speech

·       Japan PPI (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (September)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/26)/ Deposit Growth (September/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit India through October 10th.

·       In Slovenia, the 2025 Nato Parliamentary Assembly Annual Session, where 281 parliamentary members from 32 Nato member states are due to discuss Euro-Atlantic Defence and the continent’s security agenda.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Brussels.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss financing the EU Budget, taxation of tobacco, climate financing, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

·       Greece Industrial Production (August)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Naura holds parliamentary elections and a referendum on the Constitution.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Scottish National party annual three-day conference begins in Aberdeen.

·       In Belfast, Northern Ireland’s Ulster Unionist party annual conference open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds the 2nd round of National Assembly elections.

·       IN the Seychelles, the conclusion of a three-day presidential run-off election after no candidate secured the required 50 per cent majority in the first-round vote, held on September 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit opens, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Global Week Ahead

Global Leaders Gather for the UN General Assembly, Canada, France, and the UK Recognize Palestinian Statehood, EU Defense Ministers Consider a “Drone Wall”, and Markets Brace for Global Flash PMIs and Lots of US Central Bank Speeches

September 21 - 28, 2025

New York will be the center of the geopolitical radar screen this coming week.  The United Nations General Assembly’s High-Level General Debate begins on Tuesday, the 80th anniversary meeting, and world leaders will descend on the Big Apple to deliver speeches.  But the truly big event at the UN this week will be the meeting on Palestinian statehood, co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia.   French President Emmanuel Macron will use the event to formally recognize a Palestinian State, following Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia in making the dramatic diplomatic policy move.  

The move by major Western nations calling for a two-state solution shows the growing divide between them and Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to oversee military action in the Gaza Strip and reportedly is considering annexing the West Bank – all as the US and other countries continue to gain the freedom of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Also happening on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly will be a meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN Assembly.  The main issue they will discuss is efforts to secure a cease-fire in Ukraine, something Russian President Vladimir Putin has been resisting despite President Trump’s increasing threats of more stringent sanctions on Russian oil sales. Markets will be watching closely for any sign of a thaw that could delay Trump’s move toward stricter sanctions.

Overall, there are innumerable other meetings and conferences taking place on the sidelines of the Assembly.  You can find the schedule of when leaders are speaking here, and for a listing of all the other meetings and conferences taking place, you can find them here.

While all this is going on, EU Defense Ministers will be meeting in Latvia to discuss the spike in Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO airspace. The Ministers will consider creating a layered defense system of drones, radar, jamming stations, and other precision weapons to prevent future Russian incursions. The meeting is another sign of the growing tensions between European NATO members and Moscow as Russian President Putin grows either more aggressive or more reckless - or both - in his provocations of NATO.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big event for markets will be the global flash PMI reports for any signs of growing inflation.  In the Americas, markets will be listening closely to Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday and watching for a number of key reports, including new home sales on Wednesday, existing home sales and durable goods orders on Thursday, and the August PCE print is out on Friday. 

However, we would also note that this is going to be a hectic week for Fed governors “speechifying” – 14 Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed presidents will be speaking in total.  And in Canada, Reserve Bank Governor Tiff Macklin will give a speech and hold a press conference this week, too.  And in Mexico, the Central Bank will meet on interest rates.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its August consumer expectation survey on Friday.  Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Wednesday, and consumer confidence surveys for Germany and France are out on Thursday.

Finally, in Asia, Japan releases September CPI figures on Friday, and China releases August inflation data on Wednesday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Belize Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

·       Today is Armenia's Independence Day.

·       Today is Malta Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Africa Business Initiative (GABI) will convene the 4th edition of Unstoppable Africa, on the sidelines of the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in Mid-Town Manhattan, New York. 

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum on whether to establish a new constitution replacing the one approved in 2020 and mark the first step towards civilian rule.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 22, 2025

Global

·       At the United Nations, the 2nd World Summit on Palestine Statehood, bringing together numerous heads of state and sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, will attempt to revive the long-stalled “two-State solution” to establish a Palestinian state and the “two-state solution.”  France is expected to join Canada, Great Britain, and other countries in recognizing a Palestinian state.

·       At the United Nations, the High-level Meeting to Commemorate the 80th Anniversary of the United Nations will take place. This one-hour meeting will mark the 80th anniversary of the establishment of the United Nations, with UN officials and Heads of State and Government reflecting on the achievements of the past eight decades and the path ahead for a more inclusive and responsive multilateral system. 

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency holds a meeting in Vienna, Austria.

·       Rosh Hashana – the Jewish New Year -  commemorations begin.

·       The Autum Equinox happens in the Northern Hemisphere (Summer is now officially over and its autumn).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House and Senate are out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louise Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives a speech on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran Non-Monetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates virtually in panel before the “Monetary Policy Frameworks: Recent Developments and Outlook An International Comparative View" event organized by the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and SUERF.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “The Fed's Role in the Economy and Impact on Everyday Life" before a "Fed Talk" event.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually on the economy before the Howard County (Maryland) Chamber of Commerce.

·       Canada PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Paraguay PPI (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party will begin a two-week leadership contest, with the vote to be held on October. 4. Though the LDP does not have a majority in the Diet, Japan's parliament, it is by far the largest party, so the new leader is most likely to become the next prime minister.

·       Malaysia will host the 57th ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting and related sessions this year in Kuala Lumpur as the bloc's chair, with the summit running through Friday alongside the RCEP Ministers' Meeting. Officials will also hold consultations with dialogue partners, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the European Union trade chief, to review market access, regional supply chains and the rules-based trading system.

·       Reforms to India's complex consumption taxes will kick in as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries to spur domestic consumption in a slowing economy. Under the reforms, most goods and services will be taxed in two tiers of 5% and 18%, with the government abolishing the 12% and 28% brackets. The reforms come just ahead of the crucial festive season between October and December, when Indians engage in the bulk of their yearly shopping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock delivers the semi-annual testimony to a parliamentary panel in Canberra.

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through September 23 in Brussels.  The EU Commission will present its proposals for the common agricultural policy (CAP) post-2027, and agriculture ministers will have the opportunity to hold a first policy debate on the future CAP.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations.  Later, she will deliver a speech at the Global Renewables Summit and then participate in at the high-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat at the London School of Economics.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at BIS-ECB-SUERF high-level online workshop on Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook – an international comparative view.

·       European Central Bank Board Member  José Luis Escrivá speaks at an event in Madrid.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mali Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN General Assembly begins in New York and runs through September 29th.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a high-level briefing on the situation of the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question.  Later, the Council is scheduled to hold a High-Level briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report for the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will address the UN General Assembly.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will host an event on Russia's abduction of children at the fringes of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

·       The Third Annual CAF / UNDP Conference on Governance for Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Critical Natural Resources for Sustainable Development will be held at the United Nations.

·       Ecuadorian unions will march in Quito over the government's elimination of a diesel subsidy. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention (virtual).

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before a Macro Musings podcast live recording.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Saskatoon, followed by a press conference.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Redbook (September/20)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/19)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Micron Technology, Costco, Autozone

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the Euro-Asia Economic Forum (under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Xi'an through September  25.

·       The Fifth Asia Finance Forum, hosted by the Asian Development Bank, begins in Manila, Philippines.

·       Jakarta and Brussels will sign the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Bali. The pact is expected to boost Indonesia's exports by over twofold, from a current trade value of around $30 billion. The deal comes after negotiations that spanned a decade, which concluded successfully in July.

·       The S-Tron Conference begins in Shanghai.  The two-day startup event allows start-up founders to pitch business plans they hope will become the next big thing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japanese financial markets are closed for the Autumn Equinox.

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat and panel discussion at the Financial Market Authority's 16th annual supervisory conference in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a discussion at the Inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Artificial Intelligence and international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/19)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/19)/Building Permits (August)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)

·       EARNINGS: KB Home, Cintas

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Payments System Board Annual

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the United Nations Climate Summit 2025.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at Bloomberg's Future of Finance conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2025 'AI in action: Shaping the future of banking and banking supervision' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene gives a speech at the Glasgow Business School on “Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy.”

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Spain PPI (August)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (September)/ Ifo Current Conditions (September)/ Ifo Expectations (September)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/ODI Conference on Global Finance begins in London, where researchers and practitioners will discuss frontier research on public finance, with a focus on low and middle-income countries.

·       BP launches an annual Energy Outlook, looking at the long-term trends and projections for global oil and gas markets to 2050.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will host Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Washington for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation on bank stress testing at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan.”

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Sales Q2/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/24)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Accenture, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Game Show will be held for four days through September 28 at the Makuhari Messe convention center east of Tokyo. First held in 1996, it is one of the world's leading game events.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

·       Taiwan Retail Sales (August)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (September)

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin

·       EU New Car Registrations (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Hungary Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       France Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Greece Total Credit (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3/ PPI (August)

Friday, September 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

·       Canada GDP (July)/ Wholesale Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       USA PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/26)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Panama Current Account Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) will be held at the United Nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The HKIB Annual Banking Conference is held in Hong Kong with Financial Secretary Paul Chan giving an opening keynote address.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/20)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q3/ Consumer Confidence Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/12)/ Deposit Growth (September/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia hosts a two-day NATO military committee conference beginning in Riga.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB-CEPR-Bocconi conference hosted by the University of Bocconi in Milan, Italy.

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Italy Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       ECB Consumer Inflation Expectation

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds national assembly elections.

·       The Seychelles holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Makes 2nd State Visit to the UK, US-China Trade Talks Start Up Again, Qatar Holds Emergency Summit Following Israeli Attack,  and Multiple Central Banks Decide Rates This Week

September 14 - 21, 2025

This week, the most significant geopolitical events with market implications will be in Europe.  President Trump will travel to London this week for his second official state visit, which will involve a white tie dinner with King Charles.  For UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is still reeling from having to fire his Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, this past week for his close ties to Jeffrey Epstein, it is a high-stakes meeting as he seeks a deal on British steel and aluminum products, which are currently subject to 25% US tariffs.

Just prior to the UK meetings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid to discuss trade and mutual security matters.  Specifically, Bessent will discuss the US threat to impose tough new sanctions on any country purchasing Russian oil.  Considering China is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, these meetings will be crucial for markets trying to gauge the future of oil prices.  Bessent is also going to press China to buy more US agricultural products, especially soybeans.  Chinese purchases of American soybeans have plummeted, putting US farmers in tough economic straits.

Also this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s plans for Gaza and the overall situation in the Middle East following Israel’s attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar.   While he is in Israel, the Qatari’s are holding an emergency meeting of Arab leaders to discuss how best to respond to Israel’s bombing strike. 

Closer to home, we will be watching as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with President Claudia Sheinbaum.  The two leaders are expected to discuss not only mutual trade issues but also how to better respond to President Trump’s ongoing tariffs on both countries.

Here in Washington DC this week, we expect Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran to be confirmed Monday (or perhaps early Tuesday) for an open seat on the Federal Reserve Board which will give him the ability to participate in this week’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FMOC) meeting on interest rates – a sure vote for lowering interest rates by at least 25 basis points with Miran likely pushing for a 50-basis point cut.

This brings us to the global economic and financial radar screen for the coming week.  It is a big week for central bank meetings on interest rates.  The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Central Bank of Norway, Taiwan’s central bank, and several other central banks are all meeting this week on interest rates.

Looking at major economic releases this week, in the US, the key reports scheduled for Wednesday include August retail sales data, industrial production, and housing starts.

In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be speaking several times.  Germany releases the ZEW survey on Tuesday and PPI data on Friday, while in the UK, August inflation data, labor market data, retail sales, and consumer confidence are reported out this week.

And in Asia, China’s August economic data is out on Monday, including industrial output and August retail sales.  Japan releases CPI data on Friday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo XIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Rubio will then go on to London to join President Trump for meetings with UK officials.

·       US and Chinese officials began a new series of talks in Madrid, Spain on trade and the US’ threat of sanctions on China for buying Russian oil.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will also discuss boosting US agricultural sales to China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia region holds local elections.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to make significant gains. 

·       Russia holds regional elections for 21 gubernatorial elections and 11 regional parliamentary elections.

·       Russia and Belarus will conduct the strategic military exercise Zapad-2025 through September 16.

·       The  International Motor Show Germany (IAA) 2025 begins in Munich, Germany.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Qatar will host an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, Qatar, though September 15 in response to Israel's Sept. 9 attack on Hamas leadership in Doha. . 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Africa dispatched trade officials to Washington, D.C., for talks with the Trump administration on tariffs. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August) 

Monday, September 15, 2025

Global

·       The OECD hosts its Global Forum on Productivity Conference in Paris, France.

·       The BRICS Traditional Values Forum begins in Brasilia, Brazil and runs through September 17

·       The BRICS 1st National Public Health Institute Conference begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through September 17.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The 69th IAEA General Conference will be held in Vienna, Austria through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina’s President Javier Milei's official visit to Paraguay.

·       Canada’s Parliament returns to work following its summer break.

·       Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran is expected to be confirmed to become a Federal Reserve Board Governor.

·       The US Navy and Marine Corps will host UNITAS 2025, a military exercise off the coast of Florida and along the east coast of the US.  26 nations will participate including Argentina, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Jamaica, Japan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Singapore, Spain, and the United States.

·       Canada Post mail carriers are expected to escalate strike activity by stopping flyers and neighborhood mail deliveries.

·       The Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS) kicks off their annual conference in Maui, Hawaii.

·       The Beyond Earth Institute hosts a webinar to discuss “Navigating the New Space Policy Landscape: What the Latest Executive Order Means for Your Business.”

·       Today is Costa Rica's Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Guatemala's Independence Day, a national holiday

·       Today is Honduras’ Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Wholesale Sales (July)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States, South Korea and Japan will hold the trilateral Freedom Edge military exercises off South Korea’s southern island of Jeju through September 19.

·       Today is Respect for the Aged Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ FDI (YTD) (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2

·       India WPI Food Index (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers through September 16 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       A delegation of eight MEPs will speak to travel to Washington, DC to meet with members of Congress lawmakers and law enforcement officials through September 18.

·       NovaSpace kicks off their annual World Space Business Week in Paris, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a ‘Conversations pour demain’ on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Institut Montaigne in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the EIB Chief economists meeting in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syrian electoral bodies select members of new transitional parliament.

·       A Turkish court is expected to rule on a case that could remove the main opposition party leader, Ozgur Oze, from office due to procedural irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump arrives in London for meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well as for a dinner with King Charles. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join Trump.  The UK is hoping to break the deadlock over long-delayed quotas to lower tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S.

·       The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) will sign a free trade agreement with the EU on Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· Mexico will celebrate its Independence Day with a military parade planned in Mexico City. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) begin two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates.

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)

·       USA Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/13)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/12)/ International Monetary Market (IMM)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Papau New Guinea, a national holiday.

·       Malaysia will celebrate Malaysia Day, marking its independence. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter leads a fireside chat at the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney.

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with his Austrian, Slovenian, and Polish counterparts on the capitals of each country.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. The Council will start preparations for the October 23-24 2025 European Council by discussing an annotated draft agenda. In public session, the Commission will present a letter of intent on legislative programming and ministers will hold an exchange of views.  As part of the Council’s annual rule of law dialogue, ministers will hold in public session a horizontal discussion on general developments related to the rule of law situation in the EU. Ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries, namely Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Ministers from the four candidate countries will take part in the discussion.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will host a conference entitled “One Year After the Draghi Report” in Brussels.  She along with Mario Draghi will deliver the opening keynote speeches.

·       The 6th Accession Conference with Albania will take place in Brussels.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 4 ‘Green agenda and sustainable connectivity’, including Chapters 14 (transport policy), 15 (energy), 21 (trans-European networks), and 27 (environment and climate change).

·       Ukraine holds Defence Tech Valley 2025 in Lviv, Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (August)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (July)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

·       Germany Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Malawi holds general elections for president and parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The World Trade Organization holds its annual Public Forum through September 18.

·       The  International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants meets in Antibes, France through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The congressionally mandated deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to non-Chinese buyers arrives again (unless President Trump gives it another extension, which he is expected to do).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces interest rate decision followed a by Press Conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/12)/ Building Permits (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/12)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Leading Indicator (August)

·       The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China hosts the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, with military personnel and scholars expected to deliberate on regional security issues and cooperation. The three-day event is set to draw delegates from more than 100 countries and comes on the heels of a recent military parade in Beijing.

·       Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his annual policy address, in which he will talk about plans to steer the city's economy. Analysts are watching for a potential stamp duty cut on residential property purchases, while another topic may be efforts to attract more visitors from mainland China to help struggling local retailers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Singapore           Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones hosts a fireside chat at the Intersekt 2025 Conference in Melbourne.

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/05)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to unveil its proposal for the 19th round of Sanctions on Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to speak about Ukraine offensive to foreign envoys at round table in Moscow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference, jointly with Stanford's Hoover Institution, on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Piero Cipollone participates in the Associazione Bancaria Italiana's Executive Committee meeting (virtual).  Later in the day, he gives the keynote speech at the  De Nederlandsche Bank's Resilience Conference in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the German economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       The Eurofi Financial Forum 2025 will take place in Copenhagen through September 19.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate (September)/ Lending Facility Rate (September)/ CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Pan- African Global Trade & Investment Conference begins in Newark, New Jersey and runs through September 20.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Olympic Committee Executive Board begins a two-day meeting in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Clauda Sheinbaum.  Trade will be the dominant issue discussed and how to deal with US tariffs.

·       Today is Chile Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Business Roundtable is expected to release its quarterly CEO economic outlook for the U.S.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/17)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Earnings: FedEx, Darden Restaurants, M&C Saatchi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (July)

·       Australia Employment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels will hold a policy debate on a proposal to amend the European climate law to establish a binding intermediate climate target for 2040.  The proposal introduces a target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. It also outlines key elements and conditions that the European Commission must reflect in its legislative proposals for the post-2030 policy framework to enable member states to achieve the 2040 target.

·       All major French unions – including air traffic controllers – will join in nationwide strikes and demonstrations against austerity measures expected in the 2026 budget. in France are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision is announced and meeting minutes released.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives a  video message at the opening plenary of 1st edition of Global Leadership by Women Summit in Marseille, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel 'Noisy Experts? Discretion in Regulation' at 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a livestreamed MNI Connect discussion entitled 'Euro Area Growth and Inflation Outlook' in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a policy panel 'The Next Financial Crisis?' at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel joins the panel on Europe and Germany in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Liz Oakes, an external member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England, gives a keynote speech at the Cross Market Operational Resilience Group 2025 conference.

§  Vicky White, director, prudential policy, at the Bank of England, gives a speech at the Bank of America annual CEO conference.

·       Euro area Current Account (July)/ Construction Output (July)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, September 19, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council discusses Nicaragua.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks at an AI event in San Francisco, California.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

·       Canada Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/19)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan policy meeting on interest rates/Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/13

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Copenhagen, Denmark.  The finance ministers will discuss the Eurogroup work program until June 2026.  They will also discuss recent economic developments including an exchange of views with the Chair of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through September 20 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate on a panel discussion at EUROFI Financial Forum in Copenhagen, Denmark.  Later in the day, Board Member Anneli Tuominen will also participate on a panel discussion.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       France Business Confidence (September)/ Business Climate Indicator (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Liberal Democrat party conference begins in the south coast seaside town of Bournemouth, ending on September 23.

·       The 190th Oktoberfest beer festival formally begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum to replace the constitution that was approved in 2020.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

France’s Government Faces a Tough No Confidence Vote, Japan’s Prime Minister Resigns, Brazil’s Former President Faces Prison, and the ECB Meets on Interest Rates

September 7 - 14, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed geopolitical week ahead for markets to keep close tabs on as there are a number of events with significant market implications. 

First, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a no confidence vote on Monday after pushing for an austerity measures to deal with France’s current fiscal deficit which is approaching 5.4%. and the overall highest deficit of any member of the Eurozone.  As things stand now, Bayrou looks like he is going to be forced from office and French President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new prime minister who can mollify the various parliamentary factions and avoid an early legislative election.  That is not going to be easy and, ultimately, it looks as if the only winner out of all this is the far-right National Rally Party.

Overnight in Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced he was stepping down after brutal legislative elections in July for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to losing its parliamentary majority.  Ishiba’s poll numbers were never very strong, but only worsened with President Trump’s tough tariffs on Japan, which Ishiba described as a “national crisis.”  Ishiba has called for the LDP to hold an emergency leadership vote to choose his successor.  No date has been set yet.

Also, this week, there will be a lot of market-impacting political action in Brazil.  Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) is convening on Monday a virtual meeting of the BRICS+ to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and how the BRICS members might form a multilateral response.   Not all of the BRICS leaders will be attending - including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others – who are instead sending aids to cover the meeting (all of which suggests Lula’s efforts are likely not to come to much in terms of an organized response).

But later in the week, the Brazilian Supreme Court will be considering whether former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and seven former aides and allies are guilty of attempting a coup in 2022 after Bolsonaro lost to Lula in elections.   Heated protests have been held around the country in support of Bolsonaro, showing how politically split the electorate is at the moment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screens, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meetings.   Market consensus believes the ECB will hold rates at 2% and is looking for more economic assurances before moving to lower rates going forward.

Also, in Europe this week, the UK releases GDP figures on Friday, Germany releases trade figures and industrial production on Monday, and France releases industrial production figures on Tuesday.

In the Americas this week, markets are looking for the August PPI report on Wednesday and the August CPI report on Thursday, probably the two most important reports out before the Federal Reserve decides on rates on September 17th.  Adding to this will be the University of Michigan consumer survey for September on Friday.  Also, this week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will unveil the 2026 budget, which will be

Turning to Asia, Japan will release its GDP on Monday and PPI on Thursday. China will be releasing trade data on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets to discuss oil output targets.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       (To Be Confirmed) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Argentina through September 10th.

·       In Brazil on Brazil's Independence Day, demonstrations will take place both in support of and in opposition to former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 8, 2025

Global

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host a virtual meeting of BRICS leaders to discuss U.S. trade policies and rally support for multilateralism.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria.  Iran’s nuclear program will be the leading issue discussed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Schoenbaum presents her administration’s draft 2026 budget; budget expected to include plans to increase tariffs on Chinese automotive, textile, and plastics imports.

·       The First Nuclear Energy Conference and Expo sponsored by American Nuclear Society and the Nuclear Energy Institute begins in Atlanta, Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July) 

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Used Car Prices (August) 

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July) 

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee is held in Beijing through September 12th.  They are expected to approve a numb er of draft laws, including a draft atomic energy law, a draft law on public health emergency response, a draft law on national parks, a draft law on the safety management of hazardous chemicals, and other pressing issues.

·       The Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting will kick off in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, bringing together leaders of the body's 18 members. During the five-day gathering, they will discuss challenges facing the region, such as climate change, transnational crime and rising geopolitical tensions between China and West. External partners including the U.S., China, Japan and Taiwan are not invited to the meeting this year.

·       The annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, organized by S&P Global, will kick off in Singapore. Hundreds of petroleum, gas, petrochemical, trading, technology and financial executives, as well as senior government officials from across the globe, are set to convene in the city-state, where issues such as the financing of future energy solutions and the impact of technological innovations and disruptions on the energy sector will be discussed.

·       The 14th Seoul Defense Dialogue (SDD) begins in Seoul.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues his state visit to Cambodia, which runs through Tuesday, as the two Southeast Asian nations look to boost relations. On the agenda are mutual concerns over transnational crime and efforts to bolster cooperation on agriculture, higher education and tourism, as well as to strengthen market access for bilateral and intra-ASEAN trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese investment firm CITIC opens a four-day forum in Hong Kong, bringing in a lineup of top global executives to discuss major issues affecting portfolios. Sessions will cover a range of topics, from cryptocurrencies and China tech to macroeconomic trends.

·       Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August) 

·       Australia Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July) 

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Motorbike Sales (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Norway holds parliamentary elections.

·       French government faces confidence vote in National Assembly.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August) 

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q2 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Second Africa Climate Summit takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Global

·        The 80th session of the U.N. General Assembly will open.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The future of peace operations - Key issues, opportunities and challenges in the context of the review of the future of all UN peace operations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Apple holds its annual media day where it is expected to launch the new iPhone 16.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/05) 

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision 

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August) 

·       EARNINGS: Oracle, Synopsys, GameStop

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Republic Day, marking the day in 1948 when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was proclaimed and Kim Il Sung was declared its premier.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2 

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August) 

·       Philippines Industrial Production (July) 

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August) 

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (August) 

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Singapore  Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Indonesia Car Sales (August) 

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will meet in London.

·       The Defense & Security Exports International (DSEI) Fair begins in London and runs through September 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August) 

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August) 

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech 

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August) 

·       France Industrial Production (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People will convene its 425th meeting in ECOSOC at UNHQ in New York. At this meeting, the Committee will receive briefings by the Permanent Observer Mission of the State of Palestine and Palestinian civil society representatives on the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/05)/ PPI (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/05)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August) 

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Chewy, Daktronics, Vince

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Semicon Taiwan 2025 opens in Taipei. The chip industry's flagship event will welcome over 1,200 companies and is expected to draw more than 100,000 visitors.

·       The 2025 Financial Review Asia Summit takes place in Sydney, Australia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July) 

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August) 

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June) 

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July) 

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July) 

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the 2025 State of the Union address in Brussels.  Later in the day, she receives European Tech and Industry CEOs for a working dinner.

·       Widespread protests are expected across France over the current budget proposal being considered by parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       The Governing Council of the European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings in Frankfurt.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Clauda Buch gives a keynote speech at the BIS Innovation Summit 2025.

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Spain Industrial Production (July) 

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July) 

·       Italy Industrial Production (July) 

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Greece Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ireland Industrial Production (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech 

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference begins in Bangui, Central African Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August) 

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1591 Committee (Sudan and whether to renew sanctions), in the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil report.

· The OECD annual report on fiscal reforms is published in Paris.

·       The OPEC Monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to convict and jail former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup to stay in power in 2022.

·       Nadine Menendez, wife of former U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, is due to be sentenced in a Manhattan district court after being convicted of helping her husband in a scheme to bribe Egyptian officials.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (September) 

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July) 

·       USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/06)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/10) 

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Adobe, Kroger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/06)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/06)/ BoJ JGB Purchases 

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September) 

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July) 

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog travels to London for meetings with UK ministers to discuss the situation in the West Bank and Gaza.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Copenhagen from September 12.

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s wife, Begona Gomez, along with one of her aides, will testify in court as part of an influence-peddling investigation.

·       Russia, Belarus hold joint military drills called 'Zapad-2025' through September 16.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       European Central Bank Monetary Policy meeting and press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion entitled "Lead, Innovate, Achieve: Championing Sustainability and Social Inclusion for 25 Years" organized by Business in the Community Ireland (BITCI) in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July) 

·       Turkey Retail Sales (July)/ Auto Production & Sales (August) 

·       ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference 

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision 

·       Germany Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Ministerial Meeting takes place in Sochi, Russia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July) 

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)   

Friday, September 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York Fashion Week (Spring-Summer) begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there this year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Canada Building Permits (July)/ Capacity Utilization Q2 

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/12) 

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (August) 

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech 

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2 

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July) 

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       India Inflation Rate (August)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/29)/ Deposit Growth (August/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August) 

·       Germany Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       France Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Turkey Current Account (July) 

·       Romania Current Account (July) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (July) 

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo VIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August)