The Global Week Ahead

The G7 Leaders’ Summit Convenes, US and Chinese Trade Negotiations Begin Yet Again, Trump’s Birthday Parade, Pope Leo’s First Address to the US, and China’s Inflation Figures

June 8 - 15, 2025

The big geopolitical event of the week is the G7 Leaders’ Summit being held in Alberta, Canada.  This will be President Trump’s first trip to Canada since being re-elected and since he placed tough tariffs on the country.   

The overall G7 agenda, as outlined by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, is to focus on several broad themes – “protecting our communities and the world, building energy security and accelerating digital transition, and securing the partnerships of the future.”  But the real focus will be trade and how to get to an end-game with the Trump tariff changes as well as discussing the opportunities and threats of AI. 

But a lot of other major action will be taking place at the Summit including a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump – the first meeting between the two leaders since their disastrous meeting at the White House on February 28th. 

On Monday, US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for talks with Chinese trade negotiators to try to and get trade talks back on track.   The meetings are the result of a telephone conversation between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week.  There had been a 90-day pause on Trump’s China tariffs but that quickly fell apart after the US added new guidance on preventing Chinese semiconductor chips to be sold in the US. 

Elsewhere this week, two big no-confidence votes are being held on Wednesday.  The first in Poland on the heels of last week’s presidential elections.  The Polish Parliament is likely to hold a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Donald Tusks government and there is a fairly good chance it will go through, forcing new parliamentary elections.  

Meanwhile, Israel’s opposition parties will try to force a no-confidence vote in a bid to force new elections and push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office.  Current polling suggest Netanyahu would lose if elections were held today as many voters appear unhappy with the ongoing Gaza war.  Additionally, two of Netanyahu’s coalition parties – both representing ultra-Orthodox voters – are threatening to withdraw their support unless there is a last-minute agreement giving an exemption to ultra-Orthodox men from military service.

Back in Washington, the US Senate will continue to work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill – as a number of House Republican members who voted for the measure are now publicly expressing regret as the bill is now expected to add as much as $4 trillion to the federal deficit.   But the big news was Elon Musk’s extraordinary public spat with President Trump which began when Musk tweeted out his disgust with the size and shape of OBBA and then went on to criticize Trump – and even call for his impeachment – for supporting the bill in its current format.   We expect the US Senate to move to change a number of market-sensitive provisions – including Section 899 which would allow Treasury to place retaliatory taxes on foreign companies as well as the state and local (SALT) provisions which the House raised to $40,000 but is facing a host of criticism from Republicans.  We continue to hold the view reaching a final deal on OBBA is going to take much longer than the Trump Administration is hoping for – July 4th is the stated goal – and is likely to be scaled back in order to get enough Republican support. 

And finally, this week will see two big events in the US this Saturday: President Trump’s birthday parade on Friday in Washington that will simultaneously celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US Army.   The parade will take place along Constitution Avenue in Washington.   The second big event will be in Chicago where newly elected Pope Leo XIV will address via video to a sold-out (40,000+) Rate Stadium  (where the Holy Father’s beloved White Sox play).  This will be the Holy Father’s first official address to the United States. 

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the big events of the coming week are – aside from the G7 Meeting – China’s trade data and inflation figures and the US’s May CPI print.

The US CPI is out on Wednesday and PPI is out on Friday – both of which will be an important indicator for how the Federal Reserve may move during the FMOC meeting the following week and the overall impact of the Trump tariffs since Liberation Day.  Also out in the US this week is the Univeristy of Michigan June consumer sentiment survey on Friday.  There are no Fed speeches this week as the Fed has gone into their “Blackout Period” in advance of the FMOC meeting.

In Europe, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be delivering the Spending Review to Parliament on Wednesday, revealing the spending priorities of  Prime Minister Starmer’s government.  It will include plans for spending more than £600 billion on public services – 1/5 of the total British economy.  In the EU this week, there are a large number of European Central Bank speeches including ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking in Beijing. 

Bringing it back to Asia, Japan releases the May Economy Watchers Survey on Monday and the PPI on Wednesday.   But markets are mostly focused on China’s inflation and trade figure releases on Monday to get a sense how deeply the Trump tariffs have impacted the economy. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Global

·       Today is Pentecost, a major feast in the Christian church marking the 50th day of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Italy is set to hold a Constitutional referendum and run-off elections for regional elective office through Monday.  The Constitutional referendum concerns changes to the law on the acquisition of Italian citizenship for foreign residents and repeals some provisions on employment as passed by the 2025 Jobs Act law.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the 2025 UN Ocean Conference Leaders dinner in Paris, France.  She will speak at the conference tomorrow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a panel discussion at the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference of Hrvatska Narodna Banka in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 9, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Ocean Conference begins in Nice, France and runs through June 13.  This is the first UN Ocean Conference since the 2022 conference in Lisbon (Portugal). It will also be the first conference since the historic Agreement on Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, also known as the High Seas Treaty.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through June 13.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for renewed trade talks with China. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead the Chinese delegation.

·       The Trump Administration’s response to a Federal Appeals Court regarding tariff authority is due to be filed.

·       President Trump’s travel ban on 12 countries goes into effect.  The countries include Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

·       Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will testify before the Federal Supreme Court in a case in which he is accused of plotting a coup in 2022. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve goes into its “Blackout” period in advance of the Open Market Committee meetings June 17-18. There are no speeches by any Fed Governors until after the meetings.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       USA Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia celebrates the King’s Birthday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q1

·       Japan Current Account (April)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ Bank Lending (May)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (May)

·       China Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will receive NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in London.  Rutte He will also give a speech at Chatham House and visit Sheffield Forgemasters with the Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey.

·       Argentine President Javier Milei visits Spain for bilateral talks.  Milei then travels on to Israel for meetings.

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov travels to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  They are expected to discuss preparations for the upcoming Eurasian Economic Forum on June 26027 in Minsk.

·       London Tech Week begin and runs through June 13. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       It is Whit Monday in Europe.  Financial markets in Germany, Norway, and Switzerland are closed.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech on the rule of law at the Italian Court in Rome, Italy.

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) followed by consultations. 

·       Today is the 90th anniversary of the founding of Alcoholics Anonymous.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds confirmation hearings for Jacob Helberg for undersecretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment; Andrew Puzder for U.S. ambassador to the European Union; Paul Kapur for assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs; and Benjamin Black for CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.

·       New Jersey holds its gubernatorial primary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (May)/ Redbook (June/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (May)

·       El Salvador PPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha through June 12.

·       Pakistan’s finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, will deliver a budget to parliament against the backdrop of the country’s IMF loan program.

·       The Bloomberg Invest Conference begins in Hong Kong and goes through June 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index/ NAB Business Confidence (May)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (May)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India in Brussels.

·       The Europlace Conference is being held in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at the Jacques Delors event "Matching savings and investments: The role of banks and capital markets in financing Europe’s future", in Berlin.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a presentation at the 2025 IIF European Chief Risk Officer Forum (virtual).

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s report on financial stability.

·       Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives a speech at the ECB Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (May)/ Claimant Count Change (May)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (April)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts 

·       Italy Industrial Production (April)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (April)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (May)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (May)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (April)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Argentine President Javier Milei in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (May)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican airline Aero México will likely see flight attendants go on strike for higher wages.

·       Bloomberg hosts its Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/06)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (May)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (April)

·       Canada Building Permits (April)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Congress holds hearing to present Articles of Impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte.  The lower house in February impeached Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, on accusations that included budget anomalies, amassing unusual wealth and an alleged threat to the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the first lady, and the House Speaker.

·       Malaysia will host the ASEAN Plus Three and East Asia Summits.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Japan PPI (May)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       India M3 Money Supply (May/30)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Polish lawmakers hold vote of confidence called by Prime Minister Donald Tusk after the defeat of a political ally in the June 1 presidential ballot with the election of Karol Nawrocki.

·       UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the Spending Review to Parliament.

·       The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin and runs through June 12.

·       European Council on Foreign Relations chair Carl Bildt, Congressional Leadership Fund former president Dan Conston and Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen are among the speakers at the two-day Brussels Forum 2025, which will focus on transatlantic political and economic issues

·       VivaTEch!, Europe’s largest startup and tech event, begins in Paris and runs through June 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a presentation at the People's Bank of China in Beijing, China.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote speech followed by fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2025 in Berlin, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote presentation at the 2025 Government Borrowers Forum in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollo gives a video message at the European Payments Council's General Assembly in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta gives a speech at the Bank of Finland and SUERF Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at the Global Investment Management Summit  in London.

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Construction Output (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Auto Production (May)/ Auto Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel’s opposition parties will seek to dissolve the Knesset in an effort to bring an early election.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition are threatening to leave over policies forcing conscription of ultra-Orthodox young men into the army.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa's National Assembly is due to vote on the government's proposed fiscal framework, the first of three pieces of legislation to adopt the country's 2025 budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April)/ SACCI Business Confidence (May)

Thursday, June 12, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled in the morning to hold a briefing on Yemen, followed by consultations.  In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

·       World Bank President Ajay Banga will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appear in front of the House Armed Services Committee for a hearing on the Defense Department’s 2026 budget request.

·       Today is Chaco Armistice Day in Paraguay.  The public holiday commemorates the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (June/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/31)/ PPI (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/12)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/11)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (April)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (May)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan is expected to hold is annual Wanan Civil Defense Drills in the Kinmen Islands.

·       In Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Auto Expo begins and runs through Sunday. The event, organized by the mainland's China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, aims to help at drive the global expansion of the Chinese automotive industry, which is currently gripped by a brutal price war between electric vehicle manufacturers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (May)

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (June/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ RBA Jacobs Speech

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q1

·       India Inflation Rate (May)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss a general approach on a directive to harmonize certain aspects of insolvency law across the EU, protection of adults, and the fight against impunity (dealing with Russia war crimes).

·       The International Energy Administration holds a two-day conference on global energy efficiency in Brussels.

·       Today is Russia Day in Russia.  The national holiday originally celebrated the fall of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union.  But its meaning has now been shifted by President Putin to celebrating the country’s modernization.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a  keynote speech at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel visits and speaks at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.  Later in the day, Schnabel will moderate a panel entitled “Funding the future: Strategies for supporting innovation and growth” at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a keynote speech at the IMF-WB annual high-level Conference for Senior Supervisors in Washington, DC.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (May)/ GDP (April)/ Goods Trade Balance (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (May)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (May)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/06)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Germany Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (April)/ Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Capacity Utilization Q1/ Manufacturing Sales (April)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)/ Wholesale Sales (April)

·       USA Michigan Current Conditions Prel (June)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectation/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (May)

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Tokyo, Japan, campaigning for Tokyo’s metropolitan assembly elections being held on June 22 begin.  The race is seen as a key political test for Prime Minister Ishida in advance of Japan’s upper house elections later this summer.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (May)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (April)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Industrial Production (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (April)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (April)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss IT infrastructure, the Schengen report, migration issues, and EU internal security.

·       The 2025 Paris Air Forum will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Romania Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Hungary Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (April)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (April)/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Elderson Speech

·       Greece Construction Output Q1

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (April)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Global

·       Today is Eid-e-Chadir, celebrated by Shia Muslims on the 18th day of the Islamic month of Dhul Hijjah, the final month of the lunar based Muslim calendar.  The religious holiday is named after the event in which Shia Muslims believe that the cousin of the Prophet Muhammad, Ali ibn Abi Talib, was appointed as a leader and religious authority after the Prophet.

·       Pope Leo XIV will speak virtually at a youth event being held at White Sox Stadium in Chicago.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating when in 1982 the Island was liberated from Argentinian occupation.

·       Today is President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday.  The day will be celebrated with a large military parade which will also celebrate the US Army’s 250 anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Global

·       The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Alberta, Canada and goes through June 17.  In advance of the meeting, the 50th G7 meeting, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is chairing the Summit, announced the priorities for the meeting will include: “1) Protecting our communities and the world—strengthening peace and security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, and improving joint responses to wildfires. 2) Building energy security and accelerating the digital transition—fortifying critical mineral supply chains and using artificial intelligence and quantum to unleash economic growth, and 3) Securing the partnerships of the future—catalyzing enormous private investment to build stronger infrastructure, create higher-paying jobs, and open dynamic markets where businesses can compete and succeed.

·       It is Father’s Day, celebrated globally. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agricultural Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trade Talks and the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting Dominate the Week, Trump to Speak to Putin Again on Ukraine Ceasefire, and More Trade Negotiations in Washington This Week

May 18 - 25, 2025

Trade will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week, both in the US and in Europe.  First, markets will watch closely as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer holds a high-stakes summit with EU leaders in London on Monday, focused on improving trade as well as locking in ways to work together on mutual defense development.  Ultimately, the talks are a shift back from Brexit and, if successful, will be the third major trade deal locked in by Starmer in a month (the other two being with India and the US).

In the US, senior trade officials from India and Japan will be meeting with senior Trump trade officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an effort to reach new trade agreements.  For the Japanese, this coming week is important for another reason:  The US Treasury Department’s Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is expected to present President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent with a new review of Nippon Steel’s $15 billion bid for US Steel, a deal blocked by then-President Joe Biden and initially opposed by then-candidate Donald Trump.  However, since then, Trump has said he is open to finding a deal for Nippon Steel to own a large–but–not–controlling stake in US Steel.

Sticking with trade for a moment, the other big talks this week come with the visit of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for meetings with President Trump.  The primary purpose of the meeting is an attempt to reset the relationship between the two countries, which have soured in recent months.  But both leaders will discuss trade (trade between the US and South Africa came in at $21 billion in 2024).  However, the Trump Administration has vocally condemned South Africa’s land reform policy and efforts to get the International Court of Justice to bring war crime charges against Israel.   Last week, a group of white South Africans were granted refugee status in the US by the Trump Administration. 

We will be watching closely for the read-out of President Trump’s expected telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week.  Trump, who is reportedly getting frustrated with Putin’s lack of seriousness about moving toward a cease-fire in Ukraine, is expected to press the Russian president to move on a deal.  However, Russian officials in Moscow are letting it be known in advance of the call that Putin is going to present a new list of demands to Trump for a cease-fire to be considered – a move that is likely to further frustrate Trump.

Turning to Europe, EU foreign ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss Israel and Gaza.  Specifically, EU trade ties with Israel are being reviewed as there has been a free trade agreement (FTA) in place for more than 25 years that requires Israel to respect “human rights and democratic principles” – something the Netherlands is asking the EU to review due to ongoing military action in Gaza. 

Also, there was an important election in Europe this weekend: Romania held a run-off election between centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan and right-wing/pro-Russia nationalist George Simion.  Simion spoke of ending support for Ukraine and opposing NATO support for Ukraine and for confronting Russian aggression in general.  As of late Sunday night, it appears Dan has won a surprise victory.

We will be watching elections this coming week in Venezuela and Suriname.  By all appearances, the parliamentary elections being held in Venezuela next Sunday are already rigged to further entrench dictator Nicholas Maduro and his regime in power.  Opposition leader Maria Conrina Machado has called for a boycott by voters.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big event is the G& finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Banff, Canada.  Trade and tariffs are set to be the primary agenda item.  But support for Ukraine will also be up there as a major issue, too.

In terms of major reports this week, markets are anxiously watching for Thursday’s release of global flash PMIs to get a fuller sense of the impact of the Trump tariffs on manufacturing globally.

Also, next week, central banks and central bank governors will be busy.  The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Tuesday.  There are a slew of central bankers giving speeches in the US and elsewhere, and we will be hearing from central bank chiefs at the G7 meetings.  The European Central Bank releases minutes from their April meeting, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds their annual financial markets conference Monday through Wednesday, and there will be a number of US regional Fed presidents speaking there, too.

Other major data reports out this week include the UK inflation print, Germany’s Ifo survey, and France’s business confidence index. 

In Asia, China releases its April industrial production and retail sales on Monday, while Japan’s trade balance is out on Wednesday, and the national CPI is out on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week: 

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       House Republicans seek to find agreement tonight on the Reconciliation bill in order to bring it to floor for a vote this coming week before the Memorial Day recess week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23.

·       The IMF Middle East and north Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Q1 GDP.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 19, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will gather in Banff, Canada, for meetings through Thursday.

·       The 78th World Health Assembly begins in Geneva and runs through May 27.

·       The BRICS Energy Ministerial Meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over efforts to end the Ukraine War.  Putin is expected to deliver a new set of demands to Trump as conditions for a ceasefire.

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will visit the United States through May 22 for meetings with President Trump.  Ramaphosa and Trump are seeking to reset the US-South African relationship as well as negotiate a trade deal.

·       US-Japan trade negotiators meet again seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

·       US-Indian trade negotiators meet in Washington seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the US economic outlook at the Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary and Capital Markets Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives prepared remarks during “Policy Session 2: The Increasing Role of Nonbank Institutions in the Treasury and Money Markets" at the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       USA Fed Bostic Speech/ / CB Leading Index (April)/ Fed Logan Speech/ Fed Kashkari Speech

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (March)/ Imports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will conduct live-fire drills off the coast of Hong Kong through May 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (April)/ PPI Input & Output Q1

·       China House Price Index (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister hosts the UK-EU Summit in London.  Britain is hoping to reset a deal with the EU would boost defense and security cooperation, mutual immigration issues, and food regulation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors convenes in Banff, Canada.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives the commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony (Virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on growth in rural communities before the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome back remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in a moderated conversation before the Economic Club of Minnesota.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack give keynotes, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/17)/ / Fed Collins Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Computex Taipei, one of the biggest tech events in the world, begins in Taipei.

·       China may conduct military drills around Taiwan surrounding the one-year anniversary of President William Lai coming to office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (May)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q1/ Loan Growth (April)/ Infrastructure Output (April)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Belgium, EU foreign and defense ministers – the Foreign Affairs Council and Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) – will gather to meet in Brussles to discuss mutual security issues and the status of the Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Warsaw through May 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Barclays briefing in London.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at The Association for Financial Markets in Europe's 5th Annual European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded video interview during AsVis Sustainable Development Festival.

·        

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at BPFI National Banking Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Germany PPI (April)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ Central Government Debt (April)

·       Euro Area Current Account (March)/ Construction Output (March)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q1/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (March)/ Current Account (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar will host the fifth Qatar Economic Forum in Doha through May 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       South Africa National Budget

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Global

·       G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in Banff, Canada.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency releases its Global Critical Minerals Outlook report.

·       The BRICS Trade Ministers meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is expected to issue a new report of their review of Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel.  The deal, which was blocked by former U.S. President Joe Biden, had been under review after Trump ordered a reexamination. After the committee's recommendation, Trump has 15 days to make a decision on the deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a “Fed Listens" event as part of the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/16)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/16)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (March)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (March)/ Leading Indicator (April)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Credit Card Spending (April)/ Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (May)/ Lending Facility Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 60th meeting of the European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The 3rd EU-African Union ministerial meeting begins in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates as a discussant at JEEA-FBBVA Lecture on "Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy" in Madrid, Spain.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Price Index (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Financial Stability Review/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece Current Account (March)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump due to hold a gala dinner for the top 220 holders of the Trump meme coin at the Trump National Golf Club just outside Washington in Northern Virginia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before Monetary Policy Implementation Workshop: “Unwinding Large Central Bank Balance Sheets" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       Mexico Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/17)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/16)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (May)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/21)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand’s Finance Minister Nicola Willis introduces the government’s new budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi will give a speech at a meeting of local business leaders in Miyazaki, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Machinery Orders (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/17)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ BOJ Noguchi Speech

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels.

·       In Spain, the Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum opens in Madrid. The two-day event will be hosted by Spanish Senate president Pedro Rollán Ojeda.

·       In Belgium, the Brussels Economic Forum will be held. Speakers include Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU commissioner for economy and productivity and for implementation and simplification; Renault chief Luca de Meo; and Electrolux chief Yannick Fierling.

·       The 5th Accession Conference in Albania will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank releases minutes from their last rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 6th International Forum Expansión “The future is decided aquí - Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics, and Technology” in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives the dinner speech at the Naturalis Biodiversity Center on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Chief  Economist Huw Pill gives keynote speech at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Annual Economics Conference 2025, titled ‘Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts’, in Vienna.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)/ BoE Dhingra Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

·       France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the international Anatolian Phoenix exercise at the 3rd Main Jet Base Command in Konya, Turkey.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (March)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference, cosponsored by New York University's Graduate School of Arts and Science, New York University's Stern School of Business, and the University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute (Virtual)

·       Chile PPI (April)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Canada Retail Sales (March)

·       USA New Home Sales (April)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/23)/ Building Permits Final (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Vietnam through May 25.

·       In Malaysia, the ruling People's Justice Party leadership elections are set to conclude, with attention focused on the competitive race for the deputy presidency between the incumbent, Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli, and Nurul Izzah Anwar, the prime minister's daughter. The outcome will shape the party's internal dynamics ahead of Malaysia's next general election, which must be held by February 2028..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (April)

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

·       Japan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Index (March)

·       Singapore     Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (May/09)/ Deposit Growth (May/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a  lecture on "Inflation and disinflation in the euro area" at EMU Lab (European University Institute Florence) in Florence, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech on "Finanzielle Bildung und Geldpolitik" at the Internationaler Demokratiepreis Bonn e.V. (IDP) "Demokratie lebt vom Mitmachen" event in Bonn, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       France Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador’s newly re-elected President, Daniel Noboa, will be inaugurated.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Quinag visits Indonesia for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Venezuela, parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled to be held.  However, the elections are widely anticipated to be rigged to keep the regime of President Maduro further entrenched in power.

·       Suriname holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Baccalaureate speech at the Princeton University graduation.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Kuala Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day – a national holiday – marking the day on the Hebrew calendar when the city was unified under Israeli rule after the 1967 War.

·       Iraq's electoral commission will open registration ahead of the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump Travels to the Middle East, Does the US and China Have a Trade Deal? Romania holds Contentious Presidential Run-Off Elections, and Markets Wait for Inflation Reports in the US, EU, UK, China, and Japan

May 11 - 18, 2025

It will be a busy week in the Middle East as President Trump prepares to head to Saudi Arabia, followed by the UAE and Qatar.  The President’s visits to the Gulf States are likely going to be good for US investment as the CEOs of Blackrock, Citi, Blackstone, Franklin Templeton, IBM, Qualcomm, and Alphabet (all of whom are speaking at the Saudi-US Investment Forum on May 13). 

Also accompanying the President will be the White House AI and Crypto Czar Davd Sacks as there is going to be significant discussion of cryptocurrencies. Interestingly, Trump is not planning on visiting Israel despite an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump has been seeking $1 trillion in increased Saudi investment in the US as well as another $1 trillion from the UAE.  We expect there will be major announcements of increased Saudi purchases of US defense equipment and a likely bolstering of US-Saudi/US-Gulf State security arrangements, too.

On Monday, we are expecting a joint statement from the US and China on trade talks in Geneva this weekend.  We note that it is not often we see joint statements between the US and China on just about anything so to hear one is coming on something as controversial as trade is highly unusual.  The White House and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the talks, have held close hold on any details of what was discussed or agreed to, as markets are monitoring the situation very closely for a sign of abatement of trade tensions overall.

In Europe this week, elections are the top event markets will be watching.  Romania will be holding a second round of highly contentious presidential elections.  In the first round on May 9th, hard-right nationalist George Simion won, and current polls suggest he will win the run-off.  Other elections this week in Europe include the first round of presidential elections in Poland and Portugal holding parliamentary elections.

Looking at the global financial radar screen this week, markets are eagerly awaiting a number of key inflation reports to gauge the impact of the Trump tariffs. In the US, the core CPI print for April is out on Tuesday, retail sales figures on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday. Intermixed with this are a number of Federal Reserve Governors speeches, including Fed Chair Jay Powell on Thursday.

In Europe, the EU Q1 GDP estimates and employment figures are out on Thursday, Germany’s April CPI is out on Wednesday, and the May ZEW Survey is out on Thursday, and the UK will be reporting labor figures on Tuesday, March GDP on Thursday.  

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from its April meeting on Friday, and we will see Japan’s Q1 GDP estimates on Saturday. Meanwhile, China will release April inflation numbers on Saturday. 

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US negotiators will continue nuclear talks (which began yesterday) in Muscat, Oman.

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicarmal legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula will travel to China through May 13 to discuss trade, particularly agricultural sales to gain market share from the US as a result of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US.

·       The 15th Annual China Business Conference, hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, begins in Washington, running until Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium, Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       USA WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

·       El Salvador PPI (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines holds elections for their House of Representatives and Senate.  More than 18,000 seats are set to be filled.

·       South Korea formally opens its election season, a three-week campaign for the presidency with the vote on June 3.

·       The Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (Capri) annual forum, this year titled Shaping Landscapes Towards a Sustainable Future for the Asia Pacific, in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook & Current (April)

·       Philippines General Elections

·       India Inflation Rate (April)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss banking union, the European Stability Mechanism, and other issues.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen opens the Strategic Dialogue on the European Defense Industry in Brussels.

·       European Council President Antonio Costa will travel to the Western Balkans through May 16 to meet with political leaders and co-host the Sixth European Political Community Summit in Tirana.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers through May 13 in Brussels.

·       EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through May 13 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the Bank of England Bank Watchers’ Conference at Kings Business School in London.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (March)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (March)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (March)/ Auto Production (April)/ Auto Sales (April)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

·       Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (March)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial begins in Berlin, Germany. 

·       The Arctic Council Ministerial meeting take place virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in his first foreign visit during his second term through May 16.  Joining Trump will be a number of US CEOs including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and Palantir’s Alex Karp. Interestingly, Trump is not visiting Israel on this trip.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce his new cabinet (TBC).

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will lead the Latin American delegation at the fourth meeting of foreign ministers of the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI (April)/ Redbook (May/10)/ Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/09)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese-French Economic and Financial Dialogue takes place in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ NAB Business Confidence (April)/ Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (March)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Council of Europe Committee of Ministers meets in Luxembourg through May 14.  Foreign Ministers for all 46 member states will attend and the primary agenda item is how to bolster support for Ukraine.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development holds their annual meeting through May 15 in London.

·       The Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025 begins at the Royal Danish Playhouse. The two-day gathering brings together leaders from business, politics, media and academia.

·       Eurovision 2025 begins in Basel, Switzerland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (April)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (April)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Current Account (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)/ ZEW Current Conditions (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US–Saudi Investment Forum takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, through May 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Finance Corporation’s Africa CEO Forum starts in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Unemployed Persons Q1

·       Ghana PPI (April)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (April)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

·       OPEC’s Monthly Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak that the  Award Ceremony for the Winners of the 2nd Edition of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Rabat, Morocco.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors (virtual).

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the California Bankers Association 25th Annual Conference and Directors Forum.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/09)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/09)/ Fed Daly Speech

·       Canada Building Permits (March)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/ Visitor Arrivals (March)

·       Japan PPI (April)

·       Australia Home Loans Q1/ Investment Lending for Homes Q1/ Wage Price Index Q1

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (March)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/02)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1

·       China New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of NATO Chiefs of Defense in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel on liquidity issues at "ECB Roundtable on Tokenisation: challenges and opportunities in a European context" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Sarah Breeden, Bank of England deputy governor, financial stability, gives a keynote speech at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association 39th Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam.

·        

·       Germany Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (March)

·       Hungary Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Current Account (March)

·       Serbia Current Account (March)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will host an informal foreign ministers meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Antalya through May 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on “Framework Review” at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at the  2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, and Richmond.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Manufacturing Sales (March)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/ PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/14)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ISE Economic Activity (March)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will hold high-level trade talks with his South Korean counterparts in Jeju, South Korea.

·       APEC Trade Ministers meet in Jeju.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May)/ Machine Tool Orders (April)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Employment Change (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (March)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Montenegro.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks, followed by Q&A at the France Payments Forum in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  video message on "Sustainability risks & financial market stability" at Green Finance Conference "Building bridges for financing a sustainable transition" in Vienna, Austria

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a keynote address at the 39th Annual General Meeting organized by ISDA in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member  Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat with François Villeroy de Galhau at Digital Currency II Conference organized by Banque de France, Toulouse School of Economics, Paris-Pantheon Assas and the ECB in Paris, France.

·       Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at the New Economics Foundation conference, EU macroeconomic policy in an age of shocks, in Brussels.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Q1/ Construction Orders Q1/ Construction Output (March)/ GDP (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Labour Productivity Q1

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (April)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia Building Permits (March)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Palestinian territories will observe Nakba Day, commemorating the anniversary of the beginning of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (March)/ Mining Production (March)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Nigeria Inflation Rate (April)/ Food Inflation (April)

Friday, May 16, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       BARKING SPEAKS

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (March)

·       USA Building Permits (April)/ Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech at the Nishinippon Seikei Konwakai meeting in Fukuoka, Japan.

·       South Korea Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q1

·       Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Services PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Political Community meets in Tirana, Albania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a Policymaker Panel: "Central Bank Communications and Uncertainty" at 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C.

·       France Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

·       Italy Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events

·       The Eurovision 2025 finals are held tonight.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Poland Presidential Election

·       Romania Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Iraq will host the 34th Arab League summit in Baghdad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 18, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The IMF Middle East and North Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Canadian PM Carney Meets with President Trump, Russia Celebrates Victory Day, While Chinese President Xi Meets with Russian President Putin, and the Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decide Interest Rates

This week marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe – V.E. Day. Great Britain, Russia, and other European nations will host parades and festivities to mark the historic occasion. Russia is offering Ukraine a short-term cease-fire on Friday to allow Russia to celebrate what it calls Victory Day. 

As part of the Victory Day celebration in Moscow, a number of leaders will attend in person, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Xi arrives on May for one-on-one meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a number of critical issues, including President Trump's tariffs, the war in Ukraine a, furthering China's support for Russia, and US efforts to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program. 

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will also meet with Putin on the sidelines of the celebrations. Brazil is chairing the BRICS this year and will discuss ways to strengthen the bloc in the face of Trump's riffs.

It will be a busy week in Europe.  At the Vatican, the Conclave of Cardinals begins to elect a new pope. 135 cardinals will gather in a closed meeting until they elect the successor to the late Pope Francis. As the Conclave begins, EU foreign ministers will be meeting in Warsaw to discuss how to strengthen European mutual security to counter Russia, as well as how to deal with the US tariffs on the EU.  And Friedrich Mertz is expected to be elected by the German Bundestag (Parliament) this week as the country's new Chancellor.

In Asia, we are watching the continued (and growing) tensions between Pakistan and India as a result of last month's attack in Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. India blames Pakistan for supporting the terrorists responsible for the attack and is threatening to attack Pakistan in response. While the US and EU work with both India and Pakistan to find a peaceful solution, we note that Iran is also trying to play a role. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to both countries this week to mediate. 

In Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, coming off a winning election last week, will meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs placed on Canada. We believe Trump is leaning toward lifting or at least temporarily suspending some of the tariffs. 

Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives coming to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and other senior Trump Administration officials seeking deals to get out from under Trump's tariffs.  Last week, meetings between Japanese and South Korean officials were held, but no deals were reached, and from what we have heard from numerous sources, the talks did not go well.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the US Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions will dominate the market's attention. The Fed—despite President Trump's demands for rate cuts—is expected to hold rates steady, while the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 24 basis points. 

Several other central bank and monetary policy-focused meetings will also be important to watch this week.  The European Central Bank is holding an off-site in Portugal, where we expect commentary on the impact of tariffs on the state of the European and global economy.  In Iceland, the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 on Friday and Saturday will host a slew of central bankers who will be giving major speeches and talking on panels, while at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference will also see a number of central bankers from various countries speaking.

 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday on the state of the international financial system.  It will certainly be a lively hearing as Bessent will face intense questions about the impact of the Trump tariffs on global markets in general and the US economy in particular. 

In the midst of all this, US March trade data will be out on Tuesday, Q1 data on Thursday, and productivity and labor data on Monday, while the April ISM services report will be out on Monday.  

In Europe, Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and trade balance figures on Thursday, while France reports its trade balance on Wednesday and industrial production on Tuesday. The Eurozone's April CPI is out on Thursday.

In Asia, China reports April trade figures on Friday, while the Bank of Japan releases its March monetary policy minutes on Thursday.  

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, Matsumoto Hisashi, will visit Algeria and Tunisia through May 6. 

·       China will hold its Golden Week holiday through May 5, and Japan will celebrate through May 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon holds the first phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial meetings take place in Vienna, Austria.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to have consultations on 1559 report (peace keeping in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) leaders to discuss tariffs.

·       The Milken Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California.  US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak at the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (April)/ ISM Services Employment (April)/ ISM Services New Orders (April)/ ISM Services Prices (April)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Kazakhstan through May 7.

·       South Korea celebrates the Birth of Buddha.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Singapore Retail Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Government Budget Value (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Milan will host of the 58th annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank’s Board of Governors.

·       In Great Britain, Members of the armed forces will march from Parliament Square, kicking off a week of 80th VE Day anniversary events, including a recitation of Winston Churchill’s victory speech as Big Ben strikes midday, and a military fly-past over central London.

·       In France, rail passengers are set to be hit by industrial action over the early May public holiday. The CGT-Cheminots, SNCF’s largest union, has called for an indefinite strike starting today, pushing for better pay for drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, today is an Early May bank holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (March)/ New Car Sales (April)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia PPI (April)

·       France New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (April)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Jordan PPI (March)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs.

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will vote on the nominations of  Michelle Bowman to be the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman for Supervision.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (April)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Redbook (May/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia hosts the 46th ASEAN summit.

·       South Korea celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Greenery Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (April)

·       Australia Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (April)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Friedrich Merz will be voted in as the new Chancellor.

·       The European Commission is expected to release plans for ending reliance on Russian oil and gas imports.

·       The Defense 24 Days security conference begins in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Athens International Defense and Security Expo begins in Athens, Greece.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank begins its two-day Governing Council of the ECB: annual retreat hosted by Banco de Portugal.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden will be a panelist at the Global Finance and Technology Networks’ 4th Point Zero Forum.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Romania PPI (March)

·       France Industrial Production (March)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the Denizkurdu-II-2025, or Sea Wolf-II-2025, naval exercise in the Black, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas through May 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The RealID requirements enter into force in the US for all air travel

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ Used Car Prices (April)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to participate in the Victory Day celebrations.

·       ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers meet in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q1/ Unemployment Rate Q1/ Labour Costs Index Q1/ Participation Rate Q1

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (April)/ Ai Group Construction Index (April)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       At the Vatican, the conclave to elect the next pope beings.

·       Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France, marking his first foreign trip in office.  Later in the day, he will then travel to Poland to meet with Prime Minister Donald Tusk

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Warsaw, Poland, through May 8.

·       In Denmark, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, co-hosted by Danish climate, energy and utilities minister Lars Aagaard, COP30 president-designate ambassador André Corrêa do Lago and outgoing COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. Discussions at the two-day meeting will revolve around implementation of last year’s COP29 plans and the key expectations for this year’s COP30

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of Valdimire Putin first being elected.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (April)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to New Delhi, India and Pakistan in an attempt to mediate between the two countries after Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the mandate of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will travel to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin.

·       The 3rd Latin Consumer Summit begins in Miami, Floria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (March)/ Car Production (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/08)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/07)

·       Canada Financial Stability Report

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will end his trip to Azerbaijan and visit Russia through May 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Motorbike Sales (April)IL

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the anniversary of “VE Day”, 80 years since the surrender of Nazi Germany.

·       Russia is expected to begin a 72-hour ceasefire with Ukraine.  But most observers do not believe Russian military forces will cease fighting.

·       The Ukrainian Parliament will vote to approve the US-Ukraine economic/critical minerals deal

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion on “Repo market: Turmoil at the core of the financial system?” at SUERF BAFFI Bocconi webinar.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (March)

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Halifax House Price Index (April)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (March)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Tuominen Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Azerbaijan for talks.  Netanyahu will discuss tensions with Turkey and Iran.

·       Turkish and Iraqi delegations will attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on Maximum Employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the Reykjavik Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University.  Later, he will speak on “Taylor Rules in Policy” before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference virtually.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on monetary policy research at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference: Finishing the Job and New Challenges, Stanford, California.  Governor Lisa Cook will also speak at the conference, giving a speech on Productivity Dynamics.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack will also speak before the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference on the topic of monetary policy.

·       The Federal Reserve Board holds the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome and opening remarks before the “Fed Listens: Perspectives from the Midwest" event.

·       US Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/09)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production & Exports (April)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Wages (April)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (March)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)/ Average Cash Earnings (March)/ Overtime Pay (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Vehicle Sales (April)/ Current Account Q1/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/25)/ Deposit Growth (April/25)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union celebrates Europe Day, marking the 1950 declaration by the Luxembourg-born French statesman Robert Schuman proposing a continent united in solidarity, considered the first step towards the EU being formed.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Nancy to sign a Franco-Polish economic and defense cooperation treaty.

·       Russia will celebrate Victory Day, marking the date when German forces surrendered to the Soviet army in 1945, commemorated with a military parade in Moscow’s Red Square and wreath-laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Attendees this year are set to include Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the keynote address at the Reykjavik economic conference 2025, hosted by Northwestern University and the Central Bank of Iceland.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges” of Harvard University.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (April)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicameral legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister, and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings Take Center Stage, Vice President Vance Visits India,  Bilateral Trade Negotiations Continue in Washington, and the G7 and G20 Meet on the Sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings

April 20 - 27, 2025

A good portion of the world hopefully enjoyed a peaceful Easter holiday today, and many are taking the week for spring vacation.  However, in Washington, Easter weekend was the quiet before the economic storm as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund  (WB/IMF) are holding their annual Spring meetings.   The nation’s capital will be filled with finance ministers and central bankers from around the world (good luck getting restaurant reservations and avoiding driving downtown – the traffic jams during WB/IMF weeks are epic).  

But unlike most World Bank/IMF meetings, a good number of trade ministers will also be in Washington this week, seeking to work out bilateral trade deals with the US.  We are aware of meetings between US officials and representatives of Thailand, India, and Malaysia, and suspect more meetings are being arranged as we write this note.

As tariff negotiations ramp up, we will be watching for the WB/IMF annual economic report on Tuesday.  This report will likely help set the tone for the week and likely point to their expectation of significant economic disruption as a result of the Trump tariffs.  Both the G7 and G20 will be meeting on the sidelines of the WB/IMF meetings, and tariffs will be the paramount issue of discussion.

Also this week, US Vice President J.D. Vance will visit India for four days starting Monday.  Vance will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, and trade, mutual defense, and security issues will be on the agenda.  Modi will then travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for bilateral meetings with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to discuss both trade and a number of other issues of interest to India, including the US-Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine peace talks, and relations with China.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the WB/IMF meetings dominate the week.  But there are several important economic reports worth watching.  Global PMIs will be out on Wednesday, giving markets a slightly clearer sense of how tariffs might be disrupting markets.

In the US, markets are watching for the Beige Book release along with durable goods orders and housing market data.  In Asia, aside from Japan’s CPI numbers, China will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan rates.  In Europe, the ifo Survey in Germany and the consumer confidence reports for the Eurozone and the UK are out this week.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 20, 2025

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christian world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 21, 2025

Global

·       Financial markets in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy are closed for the Easter Monday holiday.

·       The World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will begin his visit to the United States with stops in Miami, New York, and Washington, D.C. 

·       Thailand will send a trade delegation to Washington to discuss tariffs.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee is interviewed on CNBC.

·       USA CB Leading Index (March)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance will begin a four-day visit to India, which will include talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Their discussions are likely to focus on a proposed bilateral trade pact and American "reciprocal" tariffs, among other issues of mutual interest. Accompanied by his wife Usha, the first Indian American and Hindu second lady of the United States, and their children, Vance will visit the tourist cities of Agra and Jaipur as well as the capital, New Delhi.

· The Annual Philippine-US military exercises (Balikatan 2025) begin in the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In London, Gatwick airport operations staff continue their industrial action, likely to increase disruption for travelers returning from Easter breaks.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Egypt, the Sham Ennesim festival is celebrated marking the start of spring.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4/ M1 Money Supply (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Economic presents its joint Economic Outlook report.

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will meet in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Chile's President Gabriel Boric will make a state visit to Brazil..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson will give speech entitled “Economic Mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker participates in fireside chat on how economic mobility impacts regional economies and can promote local growth before the Economic Mobility Summit sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Global Summit.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in fireside chat, “Macro and Micro Economic Forces Shaping our Future" before the RVA Big Dipper Innovation Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler speaks on “Transmission of Monetary Policy" before the University of Minnesota Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute (HHEI) Spring 2025 Roundtable.

·       Canada PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Redbook (April/19)/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ / Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/18)/

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Economic Activity (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi begins a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia.

· In Australia, early voting begins in the country’s federal elections, which are held on May 3.  Polls leading up to the race had pointed to a potential minority government, where neither party achieves the 76 seats needed to govern, but the incumbent center-left Labor Party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has gained momentum during the campaign, improving his chances of forming a government.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Uzbekistan President Mirziyoyev and Foreign Minister Saido in Tashkent.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Luis de Guindos will give remarks at the MIT/ICADE Finance Club in Madrid, Spain.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts & Forecasters/ Government Budget & Debt to GDP 2024/ ECB Knot Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Kenyan President William Ruto will visit China through April 26.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (February)

Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Institute of International Finance holds its Global Outlook Forum in Washington, D.C. alongside the IMF/World Bank meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will give remarks and participate in a conversation at the Institute for International Finance conference (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president and chief executive Austan Goolsbee delivers opening remarks in a virtual presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s 2025 Economic Mobility Summit.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem give opening remarks before a “Fed Listens" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before the Money Marketeers of New York University.

·       SA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/18)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ New Home Sales (March)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/18)/ Fed Beige Book/ Building Permits (March)/ Building Permits (March)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Colombia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Singapore, the nine-day election campaign begins in advance of the May 3 election.

·       The Shanghai Auto Show begins – the world’s biggest – and runs for ten days.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Credit Card Spending (March)

·       Australia S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Indonesia HSBC Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Loan Growth (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit & Lending Facility Rate (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russian-Iranian Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation meets in Moscow.

·       EU Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius will meet with South Korea's minister for the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, Seok Jong-gun, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England chief economist and executive director for monetary analysis Huw Pill speaks at Leeds University Business School.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will participate on a panel discussion entitled “Tokenization and the Financial System: Adapting to the New Landscape” during the IMF/WB Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate on a panel entitled “Central Bankers’ Dilemmas Amid Changing Global Liquidity conditions” at IIF Global Outlook Forum “Forging Growth in a Time of Transition” during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C.

·       eat Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       France HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services/ Composite/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (April)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Poland Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Russia Corporate Profits (February)/ Industrial Production (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Madagascar and partake in the fifth summit of the Indian Ocean Commission. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 24, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are meeting in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Trump Administration is hoping to finalize a deal with Ukraine for access to critical minerals.

·       Malaysian Trade Minister Zafrul meets US Trade Representative Jamison Greer in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering event, “Innovating the Future: Perspectives on Science, Engineering and the Economy."

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (February)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (April/19)/ Existing Home Sales (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/18)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/23)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China marks the National Day of Space Flight, on the day in 1970 when the country launched its first man-made earth satellite, Dongfanghong-1.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/19)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/19)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       Thailand New Car Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London, United Kingdom, on the sidelines of the Energy Security Summit co-hosted by the United Kingdom and the International Energy Agency through April 25..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Philip R. Lane will participate in a panel session at the Peterson Institute (PIIE) Webcast “Review of Monetary Policy Strategy by Central Banks”.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagne will participate on a panel at the symposium “A Franco-German Tandem? Insights from History and Future Challenges for the Banking Systems in France and Germany” jointly organized by the Institute for Banking and Financial History (IBF), the House of Finance at Goethe University Frankfurt and in cooperation with Deutsch-Französische Gesellschaft Frankfurt am Main at the invitation of ODDO BHF in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Sharon Donnery will give  introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) roundtable, "The Future of Financial Global Policymaking" in Washington D.C., United States of America.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Donnery Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits South Africa..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (March)

Friday, April 25, 2025 

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings are being held in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (April)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Manufacturing Sales MoM Prel (March)/ Budget Balance (February)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/25)

·       Brazil Federal Tax Revenues (January)/ Federal Tax Revenues (February)/ Federal Tax Revenues (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day in Australia and New Zealand, honoring the anniversary of the Gallipoli landings in 1915 during World War I.

·       The Marshall Islands holds a constitutional referendum.

·       Today is Military Foundation day in North Korea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (April)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (March)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/11)/ Deposit Growth (April/11)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board member Claudia Buch will give introductory remarks and participate on a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.  

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Car Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Business Confidence (April)/ Business Climate Indicator (April)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Venezuela will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada General Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will visit Vietnam and the Philippines through April 30.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariffs Continue to Dominate Markets and Geopolitics, Chinese President Xi Travels Embarks on Asia Tour, The ECB Decides on Interest Rates, and Fed Chair Powell Talks Gives Speech on the Economic Outlook

April 13 - 20, 2025

It was another wild week for global markets in the wake of President Trump’s global tariff plan after he called a 90-day time-out on their implementation while raising tariffs on China to 145%.  While this coming week would normally be a quiet week for markets in advance of the Easter holiday, everyone is bracing for another wild week of high-level bilateral meetings and likely new announcements.

Drilling into the week ahead, we are going to be watching the meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump on Thursday to discuss prospects for a trade deal with the EU.   Additionally, we note there are unconfirmed reports US Treasury Scott Bessent may meet with UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves this week, too, to discuss a possible US-UK trade deal.   Bessent is scheduled to travel to Argentina on Monday to meet with President Javier Milei as Argentia is likely to sign a new deal with the IMF on financing assistance, further boosting Milei’s economic reform policies.

While all this going on, Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia for his first foreign visits of the year.  Trade relations are expected to be the primary point of discussion in the wake of the Trump tariffs – especially on Vietnam and Cambodia which got hit with tariffs of 46% and 49% respectively.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it will be a relatively light economic reporting week.   Markets, however, will be most focused on central bank decisions coming from the  European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.   

In the US, we will see the release of Q1 GDP, retail sales figures, industrial production for March and jobless claims on Friday.  But perhaps the most keenly watched economic data point this week will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday as well as speech by a number of regional Federal Reserve Presidents.

In Asia, Japan releases its March CPI on Friday while China’s Q1 GDP as well as March trade balance figures for March are out Monday.

In Europe, the UK labor market indicators are out Tuesday and  March CPI is out on Wednesday.  Germany sees the ZEW Survey for April out on Tuesday.

Below is what else we are watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, April 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador holds its 2nd round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Beijing hosts the world’s first half marathon featuring both human and humanoid robot runners at the Chinese capital’s artificial intelligence hub.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will travel to Washington to hold new talks aimed at resolving EU-U.S. trade tensions.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       India will launch joint military exercises with 10 African states located along the continent's eastern coast off the coast of Tanzania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).  

·       OPEC releases its monthly Oil Market Report.

·       There will be a BRICS Agriculture Working Group meeting in Brasilia, Brazil through April 15.

·       There will be a BRICs Meeting of Senior Energy Officials (virtual) through April 15.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump hosts Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House.

·       U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Argentina's President Javier Milei and local businesspeople in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

·       The U.S. Federal Trade Commission begins opening arguments in the trial seeking to unwind Meta’s purchase of Instagram.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Outlook with Chris Waller Event, hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Society of St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Driving Through the Economic Fog" before the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on monetary policy in a moderated conversation hosted by Emory University.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak the Villanova Univeristy School of Business.

·       Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi kicks begins a tour to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia that ends on Friday. The trip comes at a critical time for both China and Southeast Asia, with Vietnam and Cambodia among the countries hit hardest by the tariffs Trump announced on April 2. Malaysia, meanwhile, is this year's ASEAN chair, leading the bloc's response to Washington's measures.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Visitor Arrivals (February)

·       Singapore Central Bank interest rate decision/GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Car Sales (March)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to discuss the situation in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza, and Iran.  They will also talk about EU-Africa relations, the Western Balkans and how to engage further in the Balkans.

·       There will be an information meeting of EU Social Affairs Ministers through April 15 in Warsaw, Poland. 

·       The 1st EU-Palestine High-Level Political Dialogue in Luxembourg.  The gathering, led by  the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, and the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Palestinian Authority, Mohammad Mustafa. The Commission will be represented by Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica and Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management Hadja Lahbib.  This the first ever meeting of EU and Palestinian leaders at this level and they are expected to discuss the situation in Gaza, the unfolding situation in the West Bank, and prospects for a two-state solution.

·       The Fourth Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Luxembourg.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 2 ‘Internal market’, including Chapters 1 (free movement of goods), 2 (freedom of movement of workers), 3 (right of establishment and freedom to provide services), 4 (free movement of capital), 6 (company law), 7 (intellectual property law), 8 (competition policy), 9 (financial services) and 28 (consumer and health protection).

·       Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov will take part in the Third Meeting of National Coordinators of the Group of Friends in Defense of the United Nations Charter” in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Construction Output (February)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)

·       Turkey Current Account (February)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Current Account Q4

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (February)

Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).  

·       There will be a BRICS Climate Finance Meeting (virtual).

·       There will be a BRICS meeting on the global re-insurance landscape (virtual) through April 16.

·       The International Energy Agency (IEA) Monthly Oil Market Report is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Peru, former president Ollanta Humala and his wife, Nadine Heredia, accused of money laundering, set to hear their sentence.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks at the acceptance of the 2025 Distinguished Alumna Award at the Cal Alumni Club of Washington, D.C. Annual Reception, Washington, D.C.

·       Canada Housing Starts (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Median (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import & Export Prices (March)/ Redbook (April/12)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/11)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In North Korea, the country celebrates the Day of the Sun, marking the birthday of the country’s first leader Kim Il Sung.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (March)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/15)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Philippines Consumer Confidence Q1/ Cash Remittances (February)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank President will host an informal dinner and exchange of views of the Council with the President of the European Council António Costa in Frankfurt.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)/ Claimant Count Change (March)

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (March)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (March)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (February) / ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (February)

·       Serbia Building Permits (February)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Bahrain hosts the Smart Cities Summit through April 16.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SARB Monetary Policy Review

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultation, on the Great Lakes region.  

·       the World Trade Organization publishes its annual Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, analyzing recent global trade developments up to the fourth quarter of 2024 and forecasting GDP in 2025

·       There will be a BRICS Disaster Management Working Group meeting through April 17 in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       There will be a meeting of BRICS Transport Working Group in Brasilia, Brazil through April 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Fed 101" and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before event, "Columbus Metropolitan Club Weekly Forum: Insights from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack"

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on the economy and community banking with Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan before a Global Perspectives event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the Dallas Citizens Council.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/11)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/11)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Business Inventories (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ EIA Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stocks Change (April/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (February)/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision & Monetary Policy Report & Press Conference

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)/ Leading Indicator (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun will travel to Hanoi for meetings with Vietnam’s General Phan Van Giang.  Together, they will watch the 38th joint naval patrol in the Gulf of Tonkin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Korea Interest Rate Decision/South Korea Export & Import Prices (March)

·       New Zealand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Machinery Orders (February)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

·       India M3 Money Supply (April/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU gender equality ministers in Warsaw, Poland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Core Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (February)

·       Serbia Current Account (February)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (March)

·       Russia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 17, 2025 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at the White House.  They are expected to discuss Trump’s tariff regime toward the EU.

·       Japan and the United States will hold their first round of high-level negotiations on U.S. tariffs in Washington.

·       U.S. fees on Chinese-built and Chinese-operated ships will go into effect, although the extent of the fees is unclear given recent reconsideration in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Michael S. Barr will give a speech on Cybersecurity in the Banking System at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs 2025 State-of-the-Field Conference on Cyber Risk to Financial Stability, New York, New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

·       USA Housing Starts (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/12)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/05)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/11)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (April/18)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/16)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Gunma, Japan.

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q1

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/12)/ BoJ Nakagawa Speech

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Employment Change (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q1

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (February)

·       Greece Current Account (February)

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate/ / Marginal Lending Rate

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Belarus GDP (March)

·       Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Syria Independence Day, marking the day in 1946 when the country gained its independence from France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Ghana PPI (March)

Friday, April 18, 2025

Global

·       Today is Good Friday.  Most financial markets in Europe and the Americas are closed.

·       The United Nations is closed in observation of Good Friday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President J.D. Vance visits Italy and will meet with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (a day after she meets with President Trump in Washington).  Vance will also visit the Vatican for Good Friday ahead of Easter Sunday.

·       Iran-US nuclear talks to resume (to be confirmed) in Oman.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will participate in a conversation at the University of California Berkeley Fisher Center for Real Estate & Urban Economics.

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/11)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

·       China FDI (YTD) (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Serbia’s new government takes office after mass protests forced the previous government to resign.

·       In the UK a four-day strike begins by members of the union Unite over pay, pensions and conditions for 100 Red Handling staff, including baggage handlers and flight dispatchers, at Gatwick airport.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Slovakia Current Account (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (March)/ Manufacturing PMI (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 19, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·      In the US, thousands of demonstrators are expected to gather in Washington and other US cities to protest against President Donald Trump and his policies.

·       Today is the 250th anniversary of the start of the American Revolution (the Battles of Lexington and Concord).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 20, 2025 

Global

·       Today is Easter Sunday in the Western Christan world.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA’s Lucy mission, a robotic spacecraft, is expected to pass the main belt asteroid 52246 Donaldjohanson on its way to the Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit.

·        

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Geopolitical Outlook and Latin America 2025

The FLAR Conference 2024 Presentation

Cartegna, Colombia

It was a great pleasure to be asked to present at the FLAR Conference in Cartagena, Colombia recently. My presentation topic was broader geopolitical and geoeconomic trends that are likely to impact Latin America and which Latin American central banks need to consider in 2025. You can watch my presentation here (it begins at the 56-minute mark).

I recommend you continue to watch the panel presentation that followed for some great insights from the superb group I was honored to join to discuss and debate with on these timely topics.

The Global Week Ahead

The G20 Meets in Brazil,  The IAEA Board of Governors Meet to Discuss Iran’s Nuclear Program, the 1000-Day Anniversary of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, and President-elect Trump Continues to Name His Cabinet

November 17 - 24, 2024

It will be another busy week geopolitically as G20 leaders gather in Brazil for the annual G20 Summit.  While no major breakthroughs are expected at the Summit, it will be the last G20 meeting for President Joe Biden and will also lead to a number of bilateral meetings between Chinese President Xi and other leaders.

Also this week, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency will meet in Vienna, Austria, to discuss the status of Iran’s ongoing – and accelerating – development of nuclear weapons.  IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi just returned from meetings in Iran and will report his findings to the Board.   The Board is also likely to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the risk posed to nuclear power plants in Ukraine due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.  This coming week will also mark the 1000 day since Russia’s invasion.  EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels this week to discuss the situation, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address the European Parliament to mark the grim milestone.

In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump is expected to continue his rapid-fire announcements of cabinet and other senior staff picks.  So far, Trump is moving at a historically fast pace in assembling his team and is likely to push the incoming Senate to push through required confirmation votes in advance of his inauguration on January 20th (the new Congress is sworn in on January 3rd).

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, markets will be keenly focused on several major central bank speeches, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on Monday and Friday and the speech of the Central Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda on Monday.

Among the major economic data reports, the U.S. Redbook is out Tuesday, initial jobless claims are out Thursday, and the Michigan Consumer Report is out Friday.  In Europe, UK consumer confidence figures and retail sales are out Friday.  In Asia, Japan releases trade balance figures on Wednesday and inflation data on Thursday.

Below is what else we are watching closely around the world this coming week:

Sunday, November 17, 2024

Global

·       The G20 Leaders’ Summit takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Argentina.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China FDI (YTD) (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier gives a speech at parliament on Remembrance Day attended by his Romanian counterpart Klaus Iohannis in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q3

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Senegal holds snap parliamentary elections.

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Nigeria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 18, 2024 

Global

·       The G20 Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       The Council of the International Maritime Organization meets in London.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the protection of civilians in Sudan. Afterwards, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East. In the afternoon at 3:30 p.m., it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The International Atomic Energy Commissions holds is quarterly Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria.  The main focus of their meeting is expected to be Iran’s ongoing development of nuclear weapons.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to give welcome remarks before the Financial Markets Group Fall Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Chile Current Account Q3/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Canada Housing Starts (October)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (September)

·       USA NAHB Housing Market Index (November)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (September)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong's Monetary Authority hosts its third Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit, bringing together Wall Street dealmakers and investors. It is Hong Kong's flagship event for courting global capital, as the city seeks to maintain its international financial hub status amid geopolitical tensions between China and the West.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo gives a speech in Nagoya, Japan.

·       New Zealand Services & Composite NZ PCI (October)/ PPI Input & Output Q3

·       Japan Machinery Orders (September)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (October)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Services PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. EU Foreign affairs ministers will discuss the state of affairs in Ukraine, Georgia, EU-US relations, the situation in the Middle East, and the Horn of Africa.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will receive the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, at his official residence in Brussels.  He will also meet with the Prime Minister of Romania, Marcel Ciolacu, at NATO Headquarters in Brussels.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The ministers will discuss the situation of agricultural markets and commodities, a recurring topic on the Council's agenda. In this context, the presidency will also present an 'other business' item on the outcome of the sectoral debates it organized on the current challenges facing the different agricultural sectors and their future perspectives.  The Ukrainian Minister for Agrarian Policy and Food, Vitalii Koval, is expected to join the ministers prior to their discussion and to address the Council.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU ministers in Budapest responsible for demographic issues through November 19.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on "Les enjeux économiques et humains d'une ère en mutation" at the "Les Essentiels des Bernardins" in Paris, France

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the opening speech at the 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the SUERF Marjolin lecture at the conference “Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and Policy: New Perspectives” organized by Banca d’Italia in Rome, Italy.

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q3

·       Euro Area / Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (September)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (October)

·       Belarus GDP (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M3 Money Supply (October)

Tuesday, November 19, 2024 

Global

·       The G20 Summit continues in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       Today is the 1000 day since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In the House of Representatives, Democrats will vote on their leadership.

·       A judge in New York will consider dismissing charges against President-elect Trump over hush money payments.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI Median (October)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (October)

·       USA Building Permits Prel (October)/ Housing Starts (October)/ Redbook (November/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (November/15)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       A Hong Kong court is due to hand down sentences in the city's biggest national security trial. The case concerns the so-called Hong Kong 47 -- nearly four dozen democrats who were charged for holding unofficial primaries in July 2020 to select candidates for the city's Legislative Council election. Of the group, 45 were convicted of "conspiracy to commit subversion" under the strict national security law Beijing forced upon the city four years ago. The sentences, which could be as severe as life in prison, will be followed the next day by the resumption of another closely watched trial -- that of jailed pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses special session of European Parliament from Kyiv marking the 1000 day of the Ukraine War.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will participate in a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council of the European Union (EU) in Defence Ministers’ format. The meeting will take place at the Europa building of the Council of the EU, in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the upcoming December European Council, the annual rule of law dialogue, and other issues.

·       Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey appears before parliament's Treasury Committee.

·       There will be a National Farmers Union rally in London, protesting about new government policies, in particular applying inheritance tax to agricultural land.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the 10th Green Finance Forum "Innovate in nature" during 27th Euro Finance Week "Setting the course for 2025" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (October)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area Current Account (September)/ Inflation Rate Final (October)/ CPI Final (October)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q3

·       Italy Current Account (September)

·       Hungry Deposit Interest Rate (November)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel holds local elections for people in areas close to the border of Gaza and Lebanon who were unable to vote in February.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, November 20, 2024 

Global

·       The International Network of AI Safety Institute meets in San Francisco to discuss global safety issues around artificial intelligence will take place. The network members include Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Japan, Kenya, South Korea, Singapore, the UK and the US.

·       The UN Security Council holds closed-door meeting on Lebanon.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula will hold bilateral meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

·       Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visits Argentina for meetings with President Javier Milei.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits Chile.

·        India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Guyana.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Agency Policymaking” at The Forum Club of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach, Florida.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (November/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (November/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (November/15)/ EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change (November/15)/ EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change (November/15)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (October)/ Leading Indicator (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos for talks, as they consider new members for the bloc's expanded defense meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). The platform currently has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- while France, Canada and the U.K. have expressed interest in joining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (October)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (October)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (November)

·       Kazakhstan Business Confidence Q3

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (October)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (October)/ Current Account Q3

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia’s Upper House of parliament begins considering a law banning promotion of childless lifestyles.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcoming address at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the dinner speech at the ECB conference on financial stability and macroprudential policy 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives a speech on monetary policy at the University of Leeds.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (November)/ Residential Property Prices (September)

·       Germany PPI (October)

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI Input & Output (October)/ Retail Price Index (October)

·       Euro Area ECB Financial Stability Review/ Construction Output (September)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q3

·       Greece Current Account (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (September)

·       Russia PPI (October)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (October)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (October)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (November)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Southern Africa regional bloc, the South Africa Development Community Summit, will hold a summit to discuss the post-electoral crisis in Mozambique.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence Q4/ Retail Sales (September)

Thursday, November 21, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS International Municipal Forum Economic Congress meets in St. Petersburg, Russia.

·       The UN Security Council meets on Syria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Washington Post holds its 3rd Annual Global Women’s Summit in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will give a speech on “Banks and Artificial Intelligence” at the 2024 FinRegLab AI Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to participate in conversation before the 2024 Financial Stability Conference: Emerging Risks in a Time of Interconnectedness and Innovation, hosted by the Cleveland Fed and the Office of Financial Research.

·       Mexico Retail Sales (September)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (October)/ PPI (October)/ Raw Materials Prices (October)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (November/16)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices Paid/ Business Conditions/ Manufacturing Index (November)/ Existing Home Sales (October)/ CB Leading Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (November/15)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (November)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (November/20)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/20)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (November)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (October)

·       Paraguay PPI (October)

·       Peru Current Account Q3/GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos for talks, as they consider new members for the bloc's expanded defense meeting platform, known as the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus). The platform currently has eight non-ASEAN members -- Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the U.S. -- while France, Canada and the U.K. have expressed interest in joining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo speaks at the Paris Europlace Financial Forum 2024 being held in Tokyo.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (November/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/16)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (October)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q3

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (October)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  They will discuss the future of the EU’s trade policy.

·       Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets other officials to discuss Caspian sea cooperation in Moscow.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the welcoming
remarks at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give the keynote speech at the CEBRA International Finance and Macroeconomics conference "The Role of Central Banks and International Financial Institutions in the Transition Towards a Low-Carbon Economy" in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at 27th Annual Research Conference “The Macroeconomic Effects of Geopolitical Uncertainty” organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia, Cyprus.

·       Netherlands Consumer Confidence (November)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (October)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (November)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (October)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (November)

·       France Business Confidence (November)/ Business Climate Indicator (November)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (November)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (November)/ PPI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (October)

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (October)/ Total Credit Growth (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, November 22, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada hosts Nato parliamentary assembly annual session in Montreal, featuring 281 parliament members from 32 Nato member states addressing topics on the Euro-Atlantic Defence and security agenda.

·       The Halifax International Security Forum begins in Halifax and runs through November 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman gives a speech on Artificial Intelligence at the 27th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington, D.C.

·       Chile PPI (October)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ Economic Activity (September)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (November)

·       Canada Retail Sales (September)

·       USA S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations/ Current Conditions/ Inflation Expectations Final (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/22)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Judo Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (October)/ Jibun Bank Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Singapore Current Account Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (October)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (October)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (November/15)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov hosts Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 34th European Banking Congress "Out of the Comfort Zone: Europe and the New World Order" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Foro Observatorio Económico organized by El Confidencial/MAPFRE in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a fireside chat at the JPMorgan European Financials Conference in London, UK.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on Panel 3 "Monetary policy" at colloquium in honor of Claudio Borio in Basel, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain GfK Consumer Confidence (November)/ Retail Sales (October)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Final Q3/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (September)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (November)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (October)

·       Slovakia Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (October)

·       Nigeria Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Balance of Trade (September)

Saturday, November 23, 2024 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukraine holds International Holodomor Memorial Day, commemorating the estimated  7 to 10 million people killed during the 1932-33 Holodomor (“murder by hunger”).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2024 African Economic Conference will be held in Gaborone, Botswana, to explore ways to secure Africa’s economic future.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 24, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential runoff elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections. Surveys show that the current leading candidates are not backed by the governing Social Democrats (PSD) and the Liberals (PNL).  PSD and PNL will likely agree on a joint candidate ahead of the vote, with current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the PSD being the most likely candidate. A second round will be held on 8 December.

·       Switzerland holds a vote on two referendums including one the 13th OASI pension payment – adding a 13th month of pension payments. And one raising the retirement age this year.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea Bissau holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

Entering the Final Week of the U.S. Election Campaign Season, Gaza Peace Negotiators Try Again to Broker a Cease-Fire, And A Big US Economic Data Week

October 27 - November 3, 2024

The U.S. is going into the final week of campaigning in what is proving to be one of the tensest presidential elections in recent memory and too close to predict at this point.  Polling has proven to be extremely tight and, more often than not, confusing to most observers.  But it seems it all comes down to whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency.  Control of the U.S. House of Representatives is also proving to be close but seems to lean toward Democrats winning control, while control of the Senate looks likely to flip to Republicans.  But one thing is clear: Everyone we have spoken to cannot wait until November 5th to get the voting behind us.

Looking globally, the coming week is relatively quiet following a busy week of the IMF/World Bank meetings and BRICS Summit (which seems to have been something of a bust for host Russian President Vladimir Putin with little achieved).  Markets are somewhat relieved Israel's much anticipated retaliatory attack on Iran Saturday appears to have been limited and likely not to lead to further direct Iranian strikes or significant expansion of fighting in the region.  But Israeli action against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon continues and is not expected to end anytime soon.  Meanwhile, Israeli, U.S., and Qatari negotiators are gathering in Doha this week in another effort to broker a cease-fire in Gaza.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, it will be a busy week in the U.S. as the Conference Board's consumer confidence report is on Tuesday, the Q3 GDP numbers are out on Wednesday, PCE data is on Thursday, and the jobs report is released Friday.

In Asia, it is also going to be a busy week in Japan.  The Bank of Japan (BoJ) meets on Thursday to decide interest rates.  We will also see the BoJ release its Outlook Report on Thursday.  This comes after the labor market indicator print is released on Monday, and the Industrial Production and Consumer Confidence reports are released on Wednesday. 

China releases its PMIs on Thursday and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Friday.   But markets will particularly examine this week's earnings from large Chinese banks to gauge loan losses, giving a better insight into the country's ongoing economic challenges.

Turning to Europe, Germany, France, and the Eurozone will release Q3 GDP figures.  Germany will also release inflation figures on Wednesday, with France and Italy releasing their inflation figures on Thursday.  In the U.K., the much-anticipated first budget of the recently elected Labour Government will be presented on Wednesday.

There are very few major central bank speeches scheduled this week following a busy week in Washington last week at the IMF/World Bank meetings.  The U.S. Federal Reserve Board is in its "black-out period" in advance of the FMOC meeting on November 6 and 7.  Among G7 central banks, the most notable event is Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem's testimony before the Canadian parliament this week.

Below is what else we are closely watching around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       European and British Summer Time end. Clocks go back one hour. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

·        Brazil holds its second round of municipal elections. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli, Qatari, and US negotiators will meet in Doha seeking a cease-fire in Gaza.

Economic Reports/Events –

·         Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 28, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Sudan. Secretary-General António Guterres is expected to deliver remarks. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on 2713 Committee (dealing with Somalia as well as a Troop Contributing Countries (TCC) meeting.  

·       The OECD releases Guidelines on Corporate Governance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

·       The OECD holds its Sustainable Agricultural Productivity Conference in Paris.

·       The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) experts will present the organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin.

·       The UN’s International Conference on Women, Peace and Security will be held through October 31 in Manila, Philippines.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Canadian province of Saskatchewan holds legislative elections.

·       The 2024 Microelectronics Commons Annual Meeting and National Semiconductor Technology Center Symposium begins in Washington.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (September)/ CFIB Business Barometer (October)

·       Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will participate in a fireside chat at the Logic Summit in Ontario.

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Business Confidence (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippine Senate will begin an investigation into former President Rodrigo Duterte's controversial war on drugs. The policy began when he was elected in 2016 and by some estimates led to the killing of as many as 30,000 Filipinos. As Nikkei recently reported, an investigation by congressional lawmakers has recently confirmed a bounty system for police that directly linked Duterte's allies, including two sitting senators, to the violent campaign.

·       The Asian Development Bank will elect a new president.  Only one candidate is running – Japan’s former currency czar Masato Kana. 

·       ASEAN Labor Ministers meet in Singapore.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Malaysia PPI (September)

·       Singapore Import & Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Vietnam Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Finnish President Alexander Stubb begins a state visit to China.  Stubb is expected to discuss the war in Ukraine and China’s role in supporting Russian forces.  They are also going to talk about the ongoing trade disputes with the EU and bilateral trade issues.

·       The EU-Western Balkans Ministerial Forum begins in Montenegro.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron begins a three-day state visit to the former colony, marking a step towards easing three years of strained relations between the two countries.

·       The 2024 Session of the Nordic Council begins in Reykjavik, Iceland and runs through October 31.  The theme of the meeting is “Peace and Security in the Arctic.”  There are 87 elected members of te Council from Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, The Faroe Islands, Norway, Greenland, and Åland Islands.  Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will address the group in a bid to encourage continued opposition to the Belarus dictatorship.

·       The environmental group, Extinction Rebellion, is expected to hold large protest targeting London-based issuers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a speech and participates in a Q&A at Foro Reflexión organized by Grupo Hotusa in Madrid, Spain

·       Spain Retail Sales (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Saudi Arabia hosts the Future Investment Initiative (FII) through October 31.  The event is a showcase explaining the kingdom’s vision for transforming the country into a financial hub as well as the country’s advancements in technology, minerals, and mining.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 10th session of the UN Global Geospatial Information Management for Africa will be held in Addis Ababa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Current Account (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)

·       Canada BoC Macklem Speech

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Redbook (October/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ House Price Index (August)/ JOLTs Job Openings & Quits (September)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/25)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Mining and Resources Conference will be held in Sydney, Australia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Jobs/applications ratio (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa HealthTech Summit begins in Kigali, Rwanda.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Global

·       A Joint meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Health Ministers will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.  Later, the G20 Health Ministers Conference will meet.

·       G20 Education Ministers will meet in Fortaleza, Brazil.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold votes linked to the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold votes related to the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) and Colombia.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada will host the Ministerial Conference on Human Dimension of Ukraine’s Peace Formula in Montreal.  he Ministerial Conference will bring together Foreign Affairs Ministers to advance the common vision articulated by the Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework developed at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine at Bürgenstock, Switzerland, in June 2024.  During the conference, Ministers will exchange views with the aim of developing a concrete plan, guided by the principles of international human rights and humanitarian law, for the return of prisoners of war as well as deported civilians and children back to Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Bank Lending (September)/ PPI (September)/ Net Payrolls (September)

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/25)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ GDP Sales Q3/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/25)

·       Chile Copper/ Industrial/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Fiscal Balance (September)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will testfy before the Canadian Parliament. 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun will meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington for the 56th Bilateral Security Consultative Meetings.  

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia CPI Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ Inflation Rate Q3/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

·       Philippines PPI (September)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (September)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q3

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)/ M3 Money Supply (October/18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to publish the final disclosure for planned import duties on Chinese made electric vehicles (EV).  Once implemented, the duties will be in place for five years.

·       The UK Autumn Budget will be presented to Parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech at the SAFE-CEPR conference on Euro@25 organized by Leibniz Institute SAFE in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Netherlands Business Confidence (October)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovakia Business & Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)/ Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ SNB Press Conference

·       Germany Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Consumer Confidence Final (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Greece PPI (September)

·       Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (October)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Great Britain Autumn Budget 2024

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Qatar Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Botswana holds general elections.  President Mokgweetsi Masisi is expected to win a second five-year term.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Budget Balance (September)/ Medium-term budget statement

Thursday, October 31, 2024

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Threats to international peace and security. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/26)/ PCE Price Index (September)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/26)/ Chicago PMI (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/25)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/30)

·       Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India celebrates Diwali, the festival of lights. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Japan Industrial Production (September) / Retail Sales (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (October/26)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

·       Australia Housing Credit (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Export Prices Q3/ Import Prices Q3/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ CoreLogic Dwelling Prices (October)

·       China NBS Manufacturing & Non- Manufacturing PMI (October)/ NBS General PMI (October)

·       Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision/ BoJ Quarterly Outlook Report/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Private Consumption & Investment (September)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Government Budget Value (September)

·       Pakistan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia hosts the World Congress of Compatriots Living Abroad.  The meeting brings together approximately 400 leaders and activists from Russian communities from 103 countries.  The agenda includes “…the preservation of traditional and family values, the safeguarding of cultural and historical heritage, protection of the rights and legitimate interests of compatriots, promotion of the Russian language and education, engagement of youth in diaspora activities, development of Russian-language media, and matters concerning relocation to the Russian Federation.”

·       The 2nd International Eurasian Security Conference will be held in Minsk, Belarus through November 1.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will chair the conference.

·       The UK Conservative Party elections will end.  The new Party leader will be announced on Saturday, November 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden will give a speech in Hong Kong entitled “Engaging with the machine: AI and Financial Stability.”

·       Netherlands Inflation Rate (October)

·       Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade Final (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Bulletin/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (October)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Industrial Sales (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Greece Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Current Account (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       South Africa PPI (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, November 1, 2024

Global

·       The United Kingdom takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

·       The G20 Disaster Risk Reduction Ministerial meeting takes place in Belem, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the Day of the Dead in Mexico.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       USA Unemployment Rate (October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate/ Participation Rate (October)/ Government Payrolls (October)/ Manufacturing & Nonfarm Payrolls (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Construction Spending (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (October)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (September)

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Home Loans (September)/ Investment Lending for Homes (September)/ PPI Q3/ Commodity Prices (October)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (October)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/18)/ Deposit Growth (October/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/25)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korean troops are expected to begin deploying against Ukrainian Forces in Kursk.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Most financial markets are closed as is the European Central Bank for All Saints’ Day, a public holiday.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Netherlands Retail Sales (September)/ NEVI Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Romania BCR Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (October)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Spain New Car Sales (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

Saturday, November 2, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       One of our favorite days of the year!  The end of Daylight Savings as clocks are set back one hour and we get an extra hour of sleep.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2nd round of presidential elections takes place in Moldova.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 3, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress will gather for meetings through November 8.  They will consider draft laws and amendments to laws dealing with mineral resources, energy, anti-money laundering, and maritime issues.  They are not expected to discuss the ongoing national economic challenges or how to deal with the debt crisis.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

The World Bank/IMF Annual Meetings Convenes in Washington – As Does the Annual BRICS Meeting in Russia, Important Elections Being Held in Eastern Europe, What Happens Next in the Middle East After Sinwar’s Death?

October 20 - 27, 2024

This will be an extremely busy and particularly important week, both geopolitically and for global markets.  The World Bank/International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings are being held in Washington, D.C. this week.  As finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world converge on Washington to discuss global economic issues, managing growing global debt, which, as the IMF reported this past week, is approaching $100 trillion globally – 93 percent of the global GDP – and is on track to surpass 100 percent of global GDP by 2030).  On the sidelines of the meetings, G20 Finance Ministers will also meet in Washington under the chairmanship of Brazil, who is strongly advocating the voice of the “Global South” as a growing economic power.

However, as the World Bank/IMF meetings occur, leaders of the BRICS nations will gather in Russia to meet under the chair of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  The meeting – seen by Moscow as something of a victory over Western sanctions and pressure to end its war on Ukraine – will see the presidents or prime ministers of China, India, Turkey, the UAE, Brazil, Iran, Egypt, and more than 24 other countries discussing issues including how to end the dominance of the US dollar and building an alternative financial system.  Most observers are not expecting any significant breakthroughs.  But it is also likely the BRICS will approve the invitation to up to two dozen new member countries.

Also this week, several important elections are being held in countries Russia is battling to influence and draw into its orbit: Moldova, Bulgaria, and Georgia.  Russian efforts have become so brazen—especially in Moldova—that they are offering bribes to vote against the pro-EU/pro-West governments.

We also continue to watch the evolving situation in the Middle East.  Israel continues to prepare for a retaliatory military strike against Iran (which could come at any time) while continuing its efforts to destroy Hezbollah’s operations in Southern Lebanon.  But the news that Hamas’ political leader, Yahha Sinwar, has been killed by Israeli Forces may prove to be an inflection point in the war in Gaza.  At the time of this writing, there are reports trickling in of larger numbers of Hamas fighters surrendering to Israeli Forces.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond the World Bank/IMF meetings and BRICS meeting, markets are focused on the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday and the durable goods orders report on Friday.  Also, the Bank of Canada meets on interest rates on Wednesday.

In Asia, China will announce its 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates on Monday and any new stimulus plans or details of already announced stimulus plans coming from Beijing.   In Japan, the October CPI is out this Friday.

Turning to Europe, the European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey will be released on Friday, as will Germany’s Ifo survey and France’s, Italy’s, and the U.K.’s consumer confidence reports.

Below is what else we are closely watching happening around the world in the coming week:

Sunday, October 20, 2024

Global

·       The BRICS 1st Climate Congress will be held in Sochi, Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Revolution Day in Guatemala, celebrating the overthrow of a dictatorship in 1944.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s new president, Prabowa Sunianto, will be sworn into office. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds presidential elections and a vote on a constitutional referendum on EU integration. There are substantial fears Russia will seek to disrupt the elections in an attempt to block a yes vote on joining the EU – to the point where Russian operatives are openly offering bribes to Moldovans to vote against joining the EU.  Pro-EU President Maya Sandu is likely to receive the most votes in the election, but a runoff is also likely.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iraq holds regional elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 21, 2024

Global

·       UN Secretary-General António Guterres will be in Addis Ababa to take part in the 8th African Union – United Nations annual conference. The high-level discussions will be co-chaired by Moussa Faki Mahamat, the Chairperson of the African Union Commission and the Secretary-General. Later in the day, the Secretary-General will go to the UN Economic Commission for Africa in Addis Ababa, where he will take part in the re-inauguration ceremony of Africa Hall, which is reopening after extensive renovations to transform it into a modern conference center.

·       The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (COP16) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in Cali, Colombia through November 1.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on maintenance of international peace and security: Anticipating the impact of scientific developments on international peace and security. In the afternoon, the Security Council will hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is likely to visit Israel for talks regarding the situation in Gaza and pursue new cease-fire negotiations in the wake of the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid to speak on the economic and monetary policy outlook before hybrid event hosted by the Chartered Financial Analyst Society, Kansas City.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan to speak and participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2024 SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) Annual Meeting in New York.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari to participate in Chippewa Falls Chamber of Commerce town hall.

·       USA CB Leading Index (September)

·       Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. and Philippine military forces will participate in the Sama Sama 2024 and Kamandag 8 drills through October 24.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Hauser Speech

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (September)

·       Malaysia GDP Growth Rate Prel Q3

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·    Singapore’s International Energy Week begins and runs through October 26. Speakers include industry executives and energy ministers from Tanzania, Cambodia, Laos, Australia and New Zealand, discussing energy security and transition plans.

• The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg through October 22.  The ministers will discuss reaching a political agreement on next year’s fishing opportunities in the Baltic Sea.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (September)

·       Greece Current Account (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Slovenia PPI (September)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (September)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (August)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Total Credit (August)

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Qatar Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambique’s opposition politician Venâncio Mondlane, who early vote counts placed second in the country’s October 9 presidential election, called for a countrywide strike today to protest preliminary results he’s already rejected. He urged supporters to “paralyze” the country, according to a video posted to his social media channels including YouTube on Wednesday. Mondlane has repeatedly said he was winning.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Global

·       The 16th BRICS Summit begins in Kazan, Russia, and runs through October 24.  This is the first time the BRICS has met since expanding the membership to include Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Ethiopia.  In total, leaders from 32 countries are expected to attend.  Among the agenda items will be efforts to move away from the dominance of the US dollar further, create an alternative financial infrastructure, and plan for future expansion.

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting with ICJ briefing. In the afternoon, a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) is scheduled to be held, followed by consultations.

·       G7 Development Ministers meet in Pescara, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada's 25% surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum imports will go into effect.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker to speak on "Fintech" before the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Mexico Economic Activity (August)

·       Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/19)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/18)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (September)

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament will debate and vote on a €35 billion financial assistance package for Ukraine as part of the G7’s support initiative. The package leverages extraordinary profits from frozen Russian assets and aims to address Ukraine’s urgent financing needs in the face of Russia’s brutal war of aggression.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to the Western Balkans for meetings with the presidents and prime ministers of Montenegro, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding further integration with the European Union, including stronger trade ties.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will travel to Estonia for meetings with Estonian President Alar Karis and Prime Minister Kristen Michal. The next day, he will meet with Minister of Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna and then visit the Tapa Army Base, where he will address the troops together with the President of Estonia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion about "The future of cross-border payments: faster safer together – safe and inclusive fast payments across borders" during the IMF/WB Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.  Lagarde will also be interviewed by Bloomberg Television's Francine Lacqua at the IMF.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give the keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives the keynote speech at the annual SCION Day 2024 organized by ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) in Zürich, Switzerland.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will give a speech at the Central Banking Seminar of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York. He then will give a speech at Colombia University.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul participates in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg's Global Regulatory Forum in New York.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (September)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing (September)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)/ Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)

Wednesday, October 23, 2024 

Global

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers will meet in Washington, D.C. on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.

·       G20 Trade and Investment Ministers will meet in Brasilia, Brazil through October 25.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, there will be a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman to give opening remarks on second day of the Eighth Annual Fintech Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin to speak on "Recognizing the Impact of Community Colleges" before the 2024 Virginia Education and Workforce Conference.

·       USA MBA Purchase Index (October/18)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/18)/ Fed Beige Book

·       Mexico Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision/ BoC Monetary Policy Report/ BoC Press Conference to follow.

·       Argentina Economic Activity (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at an "Atlantic Council Front Page" event in Washington, D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in panel "CBDC, cross border payments and the future of money in a deglobalized world" at 'Bretton woods in a new world' conference organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in conversation session at 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Thriving in turbulence: Sustaining growth in a new economic landscape" in Washington, D.C,

·        Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

·       Russia Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Qatar M2 Money Supply (September)/ Total Credit Growth (September)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 24, 2024

Global

·      The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

·      G20 Anti-Corruption Ministers will meet in Natal, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Montserrat holds legislative elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack to give welcome remarks before the “Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024" event hosted by the Center for Inflation Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the European Central Bank.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (October)/ Federal Tax Revenues (September)

·       Chile PPI (September)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (September)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/19)/ / S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ New Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/18)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (October)/ 15 & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Building Permits Final (September)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/23)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q3

·       Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/19)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Final Q3

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       China PBoC 1-Year MLF Announcement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Denmark hosts North Sea Cooperation ministers meeting in   The Cooperative consists of Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Germany, Norway, Ireland, Luxembourg and the European Commission. Great Britain participates as an observer.

·       The European Court of Justice will rule on Intel's fight against a once-record €1.06 billion EU antitrust fine for rebates to laptop makers.

·       The EU’s Conference of Presidents (EP President Metsola and political group leaders) will decide on the winner of the 2024 Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought. The three shortlisted candidates are (in alphabetical order): Dr Gubad Ibadoghlu, academic and anti-corruption activist in Azerbaijan; María Corina Machado, as leader of the democratic forces in Venezuela and President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia; and "Women Wage Peace" and "Women of the Sun", Israel/Palestine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will be a panelist at the G30 39th Annual International Banking Seminar hosted by the Inter-American Bank in Washington, D.C.  Later, Bailey will give the Mike Gill Memorial Lecture at the CFTC in Washington.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul  participates  in panel discussion at the 2024 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives remarks at a conference entitled "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics" organized by ECB and FED Cleveland Fed in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (October)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/18)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 25, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Semafor holds its World Economy Summit in Washington through October 25.  Among the speakers will be Amos Hochstein, President Biden’s Special Advisor on Energy Security and other senior Administration officials.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (September)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/25)

·       Paraguay PPI (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Prel Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October 18)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit India through October 27. Accompanying Scholz will be a large number of German CEOs seeking new investment opportunities with India.  The German government recently released a white paper entitled “Focus on India” which seeks to lay the groundwork for a stronger partnership with India. Additionally, discussions between Scholz and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will focus on greater defense cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Elizabeth McCaul gives a re-recorded speech at a conference entitled "EU Banking Regulation at a Turning Point" organized by Universitá degli Studi di Roma Tor Vergata.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ CBI Distributive Trades (October)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Capacity Utilization (October)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

·       Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Greece Total Credit (September)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, October 26, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan General Elections

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia will hold parliamentary elections.  Much like the elections earlier in the week in Moldova, significant Russian efforts to interfere and influence in the elections are expected.  The elections are expected to be decisive in determining if Georgia moves toward possible EU integration or rejects integration for a tighter alliance with Russia. The ruling Georgian Dream Party has accused Western entities of attempting to destabilize the country, while the opposition and Western allies argue that the government is undermining democratic principles. If Georgian Dream wins, it has vowed to ban the main opposition parties, leading to fears of democratic backsliding, while a victory for the opposition could restore Georgia’s pro-Western course.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 27, 2024

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Uruguay holds presidential and parliamentary elections. However, the elections are being marred by a controversial $23 billion proposal to overhaul the social security system. If approved, the measure would increase minimum payouts, lower the retirement age and transfer privately managed savings to a government-run trust in what advocates see as a way to share the nation’s resources more equally.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds snap elections for its the House of Representatives. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party  (LDP) is at risk of losing its majority in the lower house, which would mean the LDP would have to rely on a coalition partnership with the Komeito Party– which is currently does to hold power in the upper house.  The LDP needs to win 233 seats for an outright majority.

·       Uzbekistan holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Lithuania holds the second round of parliamentary elections.

·       Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections. This is the third attempt to form a government since June and the sixth snap elections held in the country since 2021.

·       Liechtenstein holds a vote on a referendum on the privatization of Radio Lichtenstein.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.