The Global Week Ahead

Awaiting Next Steps in Venezuela, Iran Is Rocked By Protests, South Korea’s President Visits China, and Markets Get Back to Work In Advance of Several Major Data Releases

January 4 - 11, 2026

The quiet of the Christmas and New Year holidays ended abruptly this weekend with President Trump’s decision to take military action against Venezuela, snatching its dictator, Nicholas Maduro, and demanding the oil-rich nation comply with the US.  There are more questions than answers at this point, but for markets, the biggest question is what happens to oil markets going forward.  Venezuela is the most oil-rich nation in the world with an estimated 300 billion proven oil reserves waiting to be tapped.  And it is also incredibly mineral-rich, ranging from gold to bauxite to iron ore.  It appears much depends on how Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez responds to President Trump’s demands and how long the Venezuelan military is willing to stand (and can stand) in defense of the regime.

But our view is that what is happening in Venezuela is going to have much larger ramifications elsewhere in the Hemisphere, particularly in Cuba, which has played an outsized role in advising – and benefiting from - Maduro’s regime (as well as that of Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez).  Since President Trump began to ratchet up pressure on Venezuela, Cuba’s economy has begun to crumble.  Venezuela’s 100,000 barrels of oil shipped to Cuba daily were effectively cut off, resulting in widespread blackouts in Cuba, loss of water supplies, and massive food shortages.

Meanwhile, another major oil-producing country is in trouble, too:  Iran is experiencing a growing and increasingly violent national protest movement – the largest since 2022 – as the country’s economy plummets and hyper-inflation skyrockets.  Iran’s currency lost 42 percent of its value in 2025 (1.3 million rials to the dollar – making it the worst-performing currency in the world)  while official government figures show inflation exceeding 42 percent in December alone.  All this comes as Tehran is experiencing the worst drought in half a century, resulting in rolling water cutoffs and weak tap pressure for the capital’s 10 million inhabitants, adding further pressure on the government.

In Asia this week, the big event is South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s visit to China.  It marks the second time in two months that Lee will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is aimed at improving both diplomatic and commercial ties between the two nations.  Additionally, Lee is expected to ask Xi to help broker better relations with North Korea.  But it is unclear how successful Xi will be – North Korea conducted provocative ballistic missiles as President Lee was traveling to Beijing, a clear sign of North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un’s disapproval of Lee meeting with Xi.

In Europe this week, leaders of the “Coalition of the Willing” (EU, UK, Canada, and other nations supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russia) will meet in Paris to finalize security commitments to Kyiv as part of efforts to secure a peace agreement with Russia.  What we will be watching for are commitments from EU peacekeeping forces to serve in a possible buffer zone between Russian and Ukrainian forces, as well as pledges of military equipment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets are looking to the US jobs report on Friday with expectations that non-farm payrolls will rise by more than 50,000.  Also this week, the ADP and JOLTS reports and the ISM Services report on Wednesday with the ISM Manufacturing report out on Monday.  Plus, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey is out on Friday.

In Europe, the Eurozone CPIs are out this week.  Germany’s and France’s CPIs are out on Tuesday, and the entire Eurozone on Wednesday.   Germany releases factory orders on Thursday, industrial production figures on Friday, and its trade balance on Friday.

In Asia this week, China reports both CPI and PPI on Friday, while Japan releases wage data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, January 4, 2026

Global

·       The chair of the BRICS rotates from Brazil to India for 2026.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA Fed Kashkari Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung begins a state visit to China that goes through January 7.  It will be the second meeting between President Lee and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the last two months and comes as China-Japanese relations have sunk to a new low, offering South Korea new opportunities to expand trade relations with China.

·       Ireland’s Prime Minister Michael Martin will visit China, the first such visit by an Irish Prime Minister since 2012. 

·       The 7th round of the Pakistan-China Foreign Ministers’ Strategic Dialogue takes place in Beijing.  The discussions center on expanded trade and mutual security goals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, January 5, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a meeting on the US attack on Venezuela and arrest of Nicolas Maduro.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Senate reconvenes after the Christmas/New Year holidays.

·       President Trump is expected to have a telephone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the situation in Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (December)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (December)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (December)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (December)/ Total Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (December)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (December)     

·       China RatingDog Composite & Service PMI (December)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (November)

·       Singapore Retail Sales (November)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The British Parliament returns from holiday break.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (November)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (December)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (November)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (November)/ Mortgage Approvals (November)/ Mortgage Lending (November)/ M4 Money Supply (November)/ Net Lending to Individuals (November)

·       Serbia PPI (December)

·       France New Car Registrations (December)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyadh Bank PMI (December)

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision; Israel’s Tel Aviv Stock Exchange shifts its trading days to a Monday-Friday schedule as it seeks to appeal to international investors

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (November)

Tuesday, January 6, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House of Representatives reconvenes after the Christmas/New Year holidays.  It is also the 5th anniversary of the January 6th attack on the US Capitol.

·       The Consumer Electronics Show takes place in Las Vegas through January 9 bringing together leaders from across the global technology landscape to unveil their latest releases.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak to the Raleigh Chamber Economic Forecast 2026 in Raleigh, North Carolina.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (December)/Redbook (January/03)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/02)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)         

·       Japan Monetary Base

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (November)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (December)/ Foreign Direct Investment (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (January/06)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The national security advisors of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing” will meet in Paris, France to discuss the situation in Ukraine and the state of play on peace negotiations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel at a conference entitled "The international monetary system and international payments. Recent trends and challenges ahead" organized by Banque de France and the Ministry of Economics, Finance, and Industrial and Digital Sovereignty in the context of the French G7 Presidency in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (December)/ New Car Sales (December)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (December)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (December)

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (December)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (November)

·       France Inflation Rate (December)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Italy S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (December)/ Brandenburg CPI (December)/ Hesse CPI (December)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (December)/ Saxony CPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ Bundesbank Mauderer Speech/ New Car Registrations (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (December)

·       Israel Business Confidence (December)/Tourist Arrivals (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (December)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (December)

Wednesday, January 7, 2026

Global

·       The Christian Orthodox Church celebrates Christmas today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic Club of Canada holds its annual 2026 Economic Outlook Breakfast with the chief economists of RBC, TD Bank, CIBC, BMO, Scotiabank, and the National Bank.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech at the California Bankers Association Bank President’s 2026 Seminar (virtual).

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (December/26)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/02)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (December/26)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (January/02)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (December/26)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/02)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (December/26)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (December/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/02)/ ADP Employment Change (December)/ ISM Services PMI (December)/ JOLTs Job Openings (November)/ Factory Orders (October)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (October)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (December)/ ISM Services Business Activity (December)/ ISM Services Employment (December)/ ISM Services New Orders (December)/ ISM Services Prices (December)/ JOLTs Job Quits (November)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/02)            

·       Colombia Exports (November)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Inflation Rate (November)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (November)/ Building Permits (November)/ CPI (November)/ Private House Approvals (November)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (November)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (December)/ BoJ JGB Purchase    

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (December)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (December/26)/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 2026-25

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Indonesia           Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Cyprus assumes the rotating EU Presidency for the first half of 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Retail Sales (November)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Unemployed Persons (December)/ Unemployment Change (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (December)/ Bavaria CPI (December)

·       Hungary PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       France Consumer Confidence (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)/ CPI Flash (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (December)

·       Ireland Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

Thursday, January 8, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· California Governor Gavin Newsom delivers the State of the State address.

·       The Canadian Club holds its 49th Annual Economic Outlook Lunch in Toronto.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile Inflation Rate (December)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (November)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (December)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (December)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/03)/ Used Car Prices (December)/ Wholesale Inventories (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/02)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/08)/ Consumer Credit Change (November)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/07)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (December)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (November)

·       Colombia PPI (December)/ Inflation Rate (December)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan to hold meeting of regional branch managers and issue quarterly report.

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (November)/ Overtime Pay (November)/ Foreign Bond Investment (December/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (December/27)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (December)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (October)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 1st EU-Jordan Summit takes place in Amman, Jordan.  The Summit brings together EU and Jordanian leaders to discuss how to strengthen EU-Jordanian economic and security interests.  European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa will attend,

·       Norwegian Offshore Directorate to publish five-year outlook for the country’s oil and gas production and investments

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at Vocento's 2nd Edition of Next Spain Global in Madrid, Spain.

·       Germany Factory Orders (November)

·       Romania PPI (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (December)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (December)/ SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       France Imports/ Exports/     Balance of Trade (November)/ Current Account (November)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (November)/ Economic Sentiment (December)/ Unemployment Rate (November)/ Consumer Confidence (December)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (December)/ Industrial Sentiment (December)/ PPI (November)/ Selling Price Expectations (December)/ Services Sentiment (December)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (December)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (December)/ Manufacturing Production (November)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (December)

• Ghana Inflation Rate (December)

Friday, January 9, 2026

Global

·       The BRICS+ members hold joint maritime drills off the coast of South Africa.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari gives welcome remarks and participates in fireside chat before virtual 2026 Regional Economic Conditions Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin gives an economic outlook speech to the Maryland Bankers Association First Friday Economic Outlook Forum in Baltimore, Maryland.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (December)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (December)/ Auto Production (December)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (December)/ Employment Change (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Average Hourly Wages (December)

·       USA Building Permits (September and October)/ Housing Starts (September and October)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Participation Rate (December)/ Government Payrolls (December)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (December)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (December)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (December)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (January)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (January/09)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (December)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (December)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (November)

·       Japan Household Spending (November)/ Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November) 

·       China Inflation Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (November)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (December/26)/ Deposit Growth (December/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/02)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (December)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (November)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote speech at the biennial conference on "The Danish Economy in a Changing World" organized by the Danish Economic Society in Kolding, Denmark.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (November)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (November)

·       France Industrial Production (November)/ Household Consumption (November)        

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)/ Retail Sales (November)

·       Spain Industrial Production (November)/ Business Confidence (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Italy Retail Sales (November)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (November)

·       Euro Area Retail Sales (November)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece Balance of Trade (November)/ Industrial Production (November)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (November)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (November)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (December)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (December)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (December)

Saturday, January 10, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (December)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, January 11, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Benin holds parliamentary elections – the first since a coup attempt in December.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.