Recommended Weekend Reads

Putin and Russia Are Facing Rough Waters, How Mexico Benefits From the US – China Trade War, Will Raising Taxes Solve the US Debt Problem? And How America is Experiencing a Productivity Miracle

May 15 - 17, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.

Russia

• Putin Is Losing His Grip on Russia The World Unpacked Podcast

  Russia’s surprising recent Internet shutdown did more than disrupt daily life: it also crippled the regime’s own communications and propaganda. It’s one of a series of strange events—from a diminished Victory Day parade to crackdowns on businesspeople and celebrities—that suggest growing disorder and confusion within the Russian state. Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Moscow insider who quit over the Ukraine War, says that Vladimir Putin has lost focus on running the country. She joins Jon Bateman on The World Unpacked to explain the erosion of Russia’s social contract and share stories from her new book, From Sovereigns to Servants: How the War Against Ukraine Reshaped Russia’s Elite.

• In Russia, the Public Mood Is Souring Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

  Something in the air has changed in Russia. Now even loyalists complain about the mounting restrictions and repression, and once-upbeat businesspeople are now despondent. What we are witnessing is three related processes. First, attitudes toward President Vladimir Putin are changing. Second, economic optimism and the associated everyday patriotism, which celebrates survival rather than development (people are simply grateful to be alive) are fading. And finally, Russian people are realizing the impossibility of winning a war that has minimized their country’s advantages.

• The Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, May 13, 2026 Russia Matters

  May 12, 2026, update: Russia Matter’s analysis of ISW’s data for the past four weeks (April 14–May 12, 2026) indicates that Russian forces endured a net loss of 45 square miles (about twice the size of Manhattan Island) of Ukraine’s territory during that period. This contrasts with the previous four-week period (March 17–April 14, 2026), in which Russian forces lost a single square mile of Ukraine’s territory. In the past week (May 5–12, 2026) Russia recorded a net loss of 12 square miles (about half of Manhattan Island). Notably, Russia launched more than 8,000 drones last month, the highest monthly total on record since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, according to data published by CSIS since September 2022 and analyzed by RM. Meanwhile, FT reported, citing two people in contact with Vladimir Putin and a Ukrainian intelligence assessment, that Russia’s top commanders have convinced Putin their forces could seize the whole of the Donbas by this fall. Since the beginning of the war, RM and other analysts estimate Russia has military losses of more than 1,000,000 men, 14,000 tanks and armored vehicles, 361 aircraft, and 29 naval vessels.

• War, Inflation, and Putin’s Paranoia: Has Russian Public Opinion Begun to Shift? Russian Roulette (Center for Strategic and International Studies Podcast)

  Dr. Sam Greene, professor of Russian Politics at King’s College London, discusses the state of Russian public opinion today and whether domestic conditions have begun to change given the state of the economy, war, and ⁠reports⁠of increasing paranoia in the Kremlin.

Geoeconomics

• America Is Experiencing A Productivity Miracle Economist Staff The Economist

  The 2019–2024 uptick in US productivity wasn’t driven by the information sector, whose growth and scale is on par with its 2000–2019 mean, but rather by professional services and management, which together make up ~10% of the economy.
  

• The Microstructure of AI Diffusion: Evidence from Firms, Business Functions, and Worker Tasks National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: Using novel, nationally representative data from the 2026 AI supplement to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS), we characterize AI diffusion across three layers: firm-wide adoption, business-function deployment, and worker-task use. During Nov 2025–Jan 2026, 18% of firms used AI in at least one function (32%, employment-weighted), with adoption expected to reach 22% within six months. Use is concentrated in large firms and knowledge-intensive sectors, reaching 50%–60% (60%–70%, employment-weighted) among very large firms in Information, Professional Services, and Finance. Among adopters, scope remains limited: 57% use AI in three or fewer functions, most often Sales and Marketing (52%), Strategy (45%), and IT (41%). Worker-level use appears in 23% (41%, employment-weighted) of firms, primarily for writing, document analysis, and information search; 65% restrict use to three or fewer tasks. Evidence suggests both top-down and bottom-up diffusion: worker use can occur without firm adoption, and vice versa. Most firms (66%) use AI for task augmentation, while employment reductions are rare (2%). Regression results show a positive relationship between firm performance and AI integration breadth. However, functional deployment and operational investment are associated with employment declines, while worker-task use is not once these factors are controlled for.

• Can Tax Reform Solve the Debt Problem—or Just Slow It? Tax Foundation

  The US federal government faces several fiscal challenges in the coming decades, as the Congressional Budget Office projects that, under current law, publicly held debt as a share of GDP will rise to a new record high within the next four years and continue rising to 175 percent of GDP by 2056. While revenues are projected to grow as a share of GDP, spending will grow faster so that deficits rise to 9.1 percent of GDP by 2056. This study simulates several large tax increases and consistently finds that even tax increases large enough to close the primary deficit in the near term will lose ground over time and fail to put the debt on a sustainable course. The most popular proposals, from hiking taxes on the rich to raising tariffs, tend to target a narrow set of taxpayers and produce the least sustainable revenues. These options are likely to introduce large economic distortions and slow economic growth without substantially improving the debt trajectory. The results suggest deficit reduction efforts should focus first on reducing the growth of major entitlements, and second on relatively efficient, broad-based tax increases.
  

Latin America

• Mexico Gains From U.S.-China Trade War; Inefficiencies Limit Benefit Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Luis Torres and Diego Morales-Burnett Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

  Abstract: We examine the effects of the tariffs implemented during the U.S.-China trade war on Mexico’s GDP, using a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium trade model. Higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reduce the competitiveness of Chinese exports in the U.S. market, thereby shifting U.S. demand toward alternative suppliers, including Mexico. Model simulation indicates the U.S. - China tariff shock generated a positive effect on Mexico’s GDP, shifting U.S. demand from goods produced in China toward those produced in Mexico. There was a clear increase in U.S. demand for goods produced in Mexico during 2017–24, suggesting that output in Mexico expanded to meet this increased demand in response to the China trade tension. In the medium run—a period when aggregate capital does not change through investment—Mexico experiences a modest increase in GDP of 0.35 percent, driven primarily by higher exports to the United States and expansion of sectors integrated into North American value chains. Once Mexico’s capital stock adjusts, GDP expands by an additional 0.73 percentage points (total of 1.08 percent), reflecting increased investment in expanding industries (Chart 3). Although trade reallocation has contributed to economic growth in Mexico, structural constraints led to underperformance.

• The Strategic Link Between USMCA and Critical Minerals Arturo Sarukhan/Americas Quarterly

  Critical minerals have emerged as one of the issues most likely to define what the “new USMCA” stands for: not merely a trade agreement, but the enforcement spine of a broader hemispheric economic-security strategy that integrates market access, technology governance, and supply chain integrity. If the review produces a meaningful minerals annex—or a trilateral minerals side agreement—it will represent a genuine architectural advance. If it fails to do so, the continent risks locking in bilateral templates.
  

• Unpacking Peru’s First-Round Elections 35 West Podcast

  On April 12, Peruvians took to the polls to vote in the first round of elections that would decide the country’s next president. Some hoped the elections would help usher in an end to the country’s long running political crisis where no president has served out a full term since 2016. However, delays and complications in counting the votes, and fraud allegations leveled by some candidates turned the April election into its own miniature crisis. In this episode, Henry Ziemer sits down with Mitra Taj, a freelance reporter based in Lima to unpack the results of the first round of voting. Together they explore the key figures and power brokers heading into the runoff, as well as how the two candidates, Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez, will likely approach key issues of economic development, security policy, and relations with Congress. They also explore the significance of the elections for ongoing U.S.-China competition in South America.
  

• The prediction markets are betting on Colombia’s upcoming election Latin America Reports

  Prediction market giants Kalshi and Polymarket are showing a recent surge in bets on right-wing populist Abelardo de la Espriella to be the eventual winner of Colombia’s presidential election at the end of May. The markets are out of line with conventional polls in Colombia, which have leftist candidate Ivan Cepeda comfortably leading the race with de la Espriella in second, followed by center-right candidate Paloma Valencia. In the last week, however, bets on de la Espriella to win the election have increased relative to bets on his rivals. On May 1, de la Espriella was given a 28.8% chance of victory whilst Cepeda was given 38% on betting market Kalshi. As of May 8, de la Espriella has overtaken Cepeda by 1 percentage point, reaching 42%. Polymarket shows a similar trend. De la Espriella’s odds have risen from 28% to 39% over the last seven days, though he still trails Cepeda, who remains on 41%.

• How America Can Coerce the Cartels Benjamin Lessing/Foreign Affairs

  There is an alternative to the ongoing violent response to Latin American drug cartels: It is what the author calls “conditional repression.” Countries facing powerful and destructive criminal groups, such as drug cartels and prison gangs, should draw bright redlines and concentrate their fire on the groups that cross them. Escalatory measures, whether military or judicial, could be used to punish only the worst cartel behavior. In this way, the repressive force that is currently failing to stop the drug trade could be used coercively to reduce its most pernicious harms. And nobody understands coercion better than Trump. From tariffs to military operations in Iran and Venezuela, he has seized personal control over levers of power and used it to punish those who do not bend to his will. Trump could do the same to cartels: cow them into ending fentanyl flows and minimizing violence, criminal governance, civilian extortion, and environmental degradation. However contentious his tactics, this president may be uniquely (and surprisingly) qualified to change the way the United States—and the world—fights the drug war.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Previewing the Trump – Xi Summit, Overcoming Latin America’s Stubborn Productivity Gap, Who Will Make Money on AI?, and How Americans Rarely Talk to Their Neighbors

May 8 - 10, 2026

The US and China in Advance of the Xi–Trump Summit

• In What Ways Has U.S. Trade with China Changed? Hunter Clark and Gregory Simitian - Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  In 2025, the US deficit with China in machinery and electrical goods fell ~$70 billion, while the US deficit with ASEAN in similar goods rose ~$80B, and China’s surplus with ASEAN increased ~$70 billion — reshuffling, not shrinking, trade imbalances.

• What will happen when Trump meets Xi? Brookings Institution Expert Roundtable

  President Donald Trump will travel to Beijing for meetings with President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, 2026. Nine Brookings experts weigh in below on how Trump and Xi’s interaction will impact their areas of expertise and how the summit’s success will be measured. But as Ryan Haas, Brookings Director of the John L. Thorton China Center, suggests, observers should have low expectations for the upcoming summit. While the relationship has stabilized since the two leaders met last November, Haas points, it remains fragile—defined more by an absence of friction than any affirmative agenda or deep dialogue on the substantial differences that bedevil the relationship. Many Chinese analysts expect a U.S. snap back to a more competitive China policy, either after the midterms or after Trump steps down in 2029. Beijing seems focused on using this interregnum to enhance its position vis-à-vis the United States. Likewise, many in the Trump administration and on Capitol Hill favor a return to sustained strategic competition.

• Americans’ views of China have grown somewhat more positive in recent years Pew Research Center

  For the better part of a decade, most Americans have had negative views of China. This is still the case, but the share with a favorable view has ticked up, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted in March. Today, 27% of Americans have a positive opinion of China. That has risen 6 percentage points since last year and nearly doubled since 2023. And it’s part of a modest softening of Americans’ opinion of China on multiple fronts:

  • Confidence in Chinese President Xi Jinping to do the right thing regarding world affairs has gone up 4 points since last year and roughly doubled since 2023.

  • When asked whether China is a partner, enemy or competitor of the United States, fewer Americans call China an enemy now than in 2025. But most Americans still see it as a competitor.

  • Slightly fewer say now than last year that China is benefiting from trade at the expense of the U.S.

• China’s Demographic Future Is Now The Rhodium Group

  We estimate China will lose nearly 60 million people in the next decade, roughly equivalent to the population of France. The impact on household consumption is obvious, but the larger problem for Beijing may be the hit to social security funds. The headlines are bad, the regional breakdown is worse. The country’s most developed provinces are seeing falling populations, which will impact overall consumption and the future productivity of the labor force. The impact on household consumption is obvious, but the larger problem for Beijing may be the hit to social security funds. The fiscal subsidy to social security funds rose to a record 2.9 trillion yuan last year, or 10.1% of general budget spending, and appears set to rise in the future.

Latin America

• A Bad USMCA Rewrite Will Cost Mexico More Than No Deal Juan Pablo Spinetto/Bloomberg

  The USMCA free-trade pact is due for review on July 1, with negotiations likely to run past the deadline and potentially leading to annual reviews. Mexico has high stakes in the review, with an updated USMCA potentially lifting uncertainty and unlocking investments, but the country should resist sacrificing a good deal for a quick one. Mexico should secure explicit guarantees that US tariffs on certain goods will be lifted or reduced before making any announcements, and may be better off waiting for a shift in Washington’s stance if such guarantees are not provided.

• Sinaloa Governor Indicted: USMCA, Cartels, and the Future of U.S.-Mexico Trade Center for Strategic and International Studies

  On April 29, Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine other current and former Mexican officials were indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice on charges of conspiring to assist the Sinaloa Cartel in trafficking drugs into the United States in exchange for bribes and political support. The move was not a surprise, but a culmination. For 18 months, the White House had been turning the screws on the Sheinbaum administration, demanding deeper security cooperation and tangible outcomes, while holding a series of escalating threats in reserve, among them the specter of unilateral U.S. military action on Mexican soil. Mexico responded at nearly every turn—yet the goalposts moved. The indictment of sitting officials from Morena, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s party, represents one of the most consequential of those threats, one that the White House had kept in reserve but never fired. Its timing is not incidental. It comes at a moment of acute bilateral tension, and just weeks before the formal review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), currently scheduled to launch, without Canada, on May 26.

• Overcoming Latin America’s Stubborn Productivity Gap Americas Quarterly

  Call it Latin America’s perennial challenge: Low productivity. Measured as output per worker or per hour, productivity in most of the region remains a fraction of that in advanced economies and has hardly improved over the past 75 years. The result is a development constraint that scholars and observers use to explain why Latin America and the Caribbean are currently immersed in a “low growth trap” that limits wages and political stability alike. A growing body of research has identified the persistent culprits, but also the solutions that we urgently need. Low productivity limits the region’s ability to capitalize on new global opportunities—including those emerging from today’s rapidly shifting trade environment.

Geoeconomics, Statistics, and The Global Growth of AI

• The Value of Reliable Statistics Nicholas Bloom/Erica Groshen/Duncan Hobbs/Michael Strain – NBER Working Paper Series

  Abstract: On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and claimed that the agency’s data were “rigged.” In the aftermath, measures of economic policy uncertainty rose sharply, consistent with the idea that reduced trust in official data increases uncertainty for investors, businesses, and households. We use an event-study design to estimate the effect of the firing on policy uncertainty and then map that increase in uncertainty into implied macroeconomic outcomes. This yields a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the marginal value of public trust in official statistics. Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the agency’s budget.

• Who Will Make Money on AI? A Discussion Paper on Aligning Commercial Incentives with National Security Interests Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease/Center for a New American Security

  The private sector is playing a leading role in advancing the frontier of artificial intelligence (AI). As a result, commercial incentives are likely to have a significant impact on how AI capabilities develop and diffuse across markets. Firms’ commercial incentives will influence U.S. national security interests associated with the emergence of powerful AI systems. These interests include enabling beneficial uses of AI while limiting security risks associated with AI misuse, ensuring reliable and controllable AI system behavior in deployment, and maintaining strategic geopolitical advantage in the development and global diffusion of AI. Yet to date, stakeholders focused on AI national security interests have paid only limited attention to AI companies’ commercialization strategies and market dynamics across the AI stack. This paper seeks to bridge this gap, identifying potential scenarios for the future shape of AI markets and exploring the implications of these scenarios for U.S. national security. Rather than attempting to resolve core debates on the commercialization of AI, the paper seeks to prompt consideration in both the private and public sectors, and among economics and national security expert communities, of how commercial incentives can better align with U.S. national security interests.
  

• The Sovereign AI Index – Tracking the Global Push for AI Self-Reliance Center for a New American Security

  CNAS is running an interactive, regularly updated site tracking the explosive growth of AI globally. As they point out, The United States and China control 90 percent of the computing power needed to develop and deploy frontier AI. They own all 50 of the top-ranked AI foundation models. Concerned about this concentration of AI power, governments worldwide have responded with initiatives to strengthen their AI capabilities under the banner of “sovereign AI.” Although a consensus definition of sovereign AI remains elusive, this index defines a sovereign AI project as a government-backed AI initiative tied explicitly to national strategic interests and backed by material public investment in domestic compute, models, or data ecosystems. The drivers of sovereign AI vary widely. For some countries, the imperative is security: protecting sensitive data and ensuring access to advanced capabilities for defense and intelligence. For others, it is the economy: leveraging AI to spur AI-related local investment, jobs, productivity, and long-term value. Culture is another driver, with nations seeking AI systems that better reflect local languages and norms. Autonomy also motivates countries that see danger in growing AI dependence on the United States or China. These drivers often overlap. The result is a surge in sovereign AI activity across the globe.
  

• An American industrial revolution is brewing. I saw it in Pittsburgh. David Ignatius/Washington Post

  Columnist and former Business Editor Ignatius went to Pittsburgh to witness first-hand an extraordinary change taking place. Watching a nimble robot check for flaws along the side of a massive steel tube crafted to simulate the reactor of a nuclear submarine, you see a snapshot of the revolution in manufacturing and maintenance that could transform the gritty, routine tasks of the defense industry — and perhaps American manufacturing, as well.
  

• How Students and Recent Grads are Responding to the Rise of AI Sarah Eckhardt and Nathan Goldschlag/Agglomerations

  Far from shying away from AI, American undergraduates “are flocking towards the most-AI-exposed degrees,” with enrollment in these majors up 8% last year compared to 2017. Are students shying away from fields that have more exposure to AI, perhaps worried that AI will shrink the number of jobs available to them? Or are students shifting towards those fields, preparing for a future in which they will have to be comfortable using AI? To find out, we can check enrollment for groups of degrees based on the AI exposure of the jobs that students with those degrees are likely to take, as shown in Figure 1. As is clear, undergraduates are flocking towards the most-AI-exposed degrees, with enrollment in those degrees up 8% last year compared to 2017. This trend holds despite a notable decline in Computer Science degrees, one of the most-AI-exposed degrees, but whose decline is more than offset by increases in other exposed degrees like Engineering.

Societal Challenges in America

• Strangers Next Door Daniel Cox, Jae Grace, and Avery Shields/American Enterprise Institute

  In 2012, 51% of Americans aged 18–29 and 59% of all Americans spoke to their neighbors “at least a few times per week.” By 2025, only 25% of 18–29 year olds did relative to 40% of Americans overall. The effect was less pronounced for college grads.

• Is America Financially Illiterate? The Numbers Are Alarming  The Tax Foundation

  In this podcast, Most Americans don’t understand how the tax code works, and it’s costing them. In this episode of The Deduction, host Kyle Hulehan sits down with Zoe Callaway, VP of Education at Tax Foundation, to talk about tax and financial literacy in America. They dig into the results of Tax Foundation’s national survey on tax literacy, the most stubborn misconceptions people have about taxes (including one that nearly made a teacher turn down her own promotion), and what’s happening in high school classrooms across the country. They also connect everyday tax confusion to bigger policy questions, from tariffs to tax refunds.

Russia’s Shrunken Victory Parade and The Rapidly Disappearing Putin

May 5, 2026

The Cheshire Cat of Russia: We will see this coming Saturday, the 81st Victory Day Parade in Moscow, commemorating Russia's victory over Nazi Germany. But it is going to be a very different event as President Vladimir Putin has ordered that no tanks, armored vehicles, missile systems, or large formations of soldiers be a part of it. A massive scale back in size and scale. In its place will be air shows and large video feeds supposedly from the Russian frontlines in Ukraine.

Why the big change? Simply out of fear of the increasingly effective rise of the Ukrainian drone. Ukrainian drones breached Russian air defenses on Monday, only a few miles from the Kremlin. Moreover, the Russian Army is deploying an extensive anti-drone netting system over most of Red Square and the parade route.

Ukraine drones now have a range capability of more than 1,000 miles inside Russia, destroying military-industrial facilities, oil refiners, and other energy infrastructure targets. These strikes have hit as far as the Ural Mountains and the Perm region.

For the Russian people, Putin's Ukraine War is now increasingly coming home to them, driving up gasoline prices and increasingly worrying the general population about what comes next.

Today (5 May 2026), the Financial Times published an interesting piece about how Putin is increasingly hunkered down, noting that his public appearances have dramatically decreased over the last three years out of fear of assassination. But that begs a very important question: Is he simply fearful of being taken out by Ukrainians or by increasingly unhappy Russians, or both? One thing is clear: Putin is acting like a man who is increasingly scared and desperately trying to hold onto control. Where that leads Russia, and the implications for the future trajectory of the Ukraine War, need to be thought through and discussed much more than they are now.

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The SEC Holds Its Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation, Warsh Teed Up for Confirmation Vote, and a Breakthrough in Crypto Legislation 

May 4 - 8, 2026

Congress is out of session this week, but the regulators are remaining quite busy. The big event of the week is arguably the Milken Institute Conference, being held in Beverly Hills, California. Speaking will be a small army of CEOs, as well as SEC Chair Paul Atkins, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and a number of senior members of Congress.

Meanwhile, the SEC’s Division of Economic and Risk Analysis holds its 13th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation. Held in conjunction with and done in partnership with Lehigh University’s Center for Financial Services and the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business as part of a two-day event to discuss Commission-related topics and priorities. SEC Chair Paul Atkins and Commissioners Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda will be speaking. We suspect there will be a lot of questions on the Commission’s forthcoming proposal to let publicly traded companies cut quarterly reporting to twice a year. It is not clear yet when the SEC will release the proposal, but we expect it in the next two weeks. The draft proposal was signed off by the White House on Friday.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council will be meeting on Tuesday at the U.S. Treasury. In a press release issued Friday, the meeting will be held solely in executive session. The preliminary agenda for the executive session includes “a presentation on the Council’s Market Resilience Working Group; a presentation on the Council’s Financial Market Utilities Committee; and a discussion on stablecoins.”

One other issue, which seems to be getting bigger and more controversial by the day in Washington, is the growth of prediction markets. Just before leaving for the week, the Senate unanimously voted to ban senators and all staff from participating in prediction markets. Congress is growing increasingly concerned about abuses in the market and is pressing the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to move more aggressively to regulate them. There are more than 10 bills floating around Capitol Hill now targeting prediction markets, all aimed at tightening regulations to prohibit insider trading.

Meanwhile, there appears to be movement on cryptocurrency legislation that had been opposed by Wall Street. The dispute came down to whether digital asset exchanges should be able to pay annual percentage yields to stablecoin holders via rewards programs. The deal, negotiated by Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), means the landmark legislation is likely to pass when the Senate returns from its break. Banks opposed crypto firms being allowed to offer yield-like payments on stablecoins.

The Senate Banking Committee also moved on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chair. The committee voted 13-11, and the full Senate is expected to confirm Warsh the week of May 11th.

Finally, we would note that President Trump signed an executive order aimed at expanding access to retirement plans for workers who may not have access through their employer. According to The Hill, Trump’s order coincides with the launch of Saver’s Match, which offers up to $1,000 a year in matching retirement contributions for lower-income workers.

According to a Pew analysis in April 2024, 22 million Americans can benefit from the Saver’s Match, with a maximum match of $1,000 per person and $2,000 per married couple filing jointly. Joint filers who earn $41,000 or less will qualify for the maximum match rate of 50 percent. Single tax filers must earn less than $35,500, and the cap on joint filers is $71,000, in order to qualify for a full or partial match, according to Retirement Clearinghouse.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is not in session this coming week.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is not in session this week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Wednesday, May 6, 3:10 p.m. – White House Digital Assets Director Patrick Witt is interviewed at the Consensus Crypto Conference in Miami, Florida.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, May 4, 12:50 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium.

· Tuesday, May 5, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium, Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, May 5, 12:30 p.m. (UK) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on banking regulation at an event with Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods in Oxford, United Kingdom.

· Thursday, May 7, 2:05 p.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Fed 101 and policy” in a fireside chat before the 2026 Ohio CEO Summit: “Blueprints for Bold Leadership.”

· Thursday, May 7, 3:30 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in moderated discussion before event organized by the Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress.

· Thursday & Friday, May 7 & 8 – The 7th Vienna Global Macro Workshop takes place at the Federal Reserve Board Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

· Friday, May 8, 5:45 am. (Senegal) – Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech entitled “Perspectives on Tokenization and Implications for the Financial System” at the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) Conference on Digital Assets, Dakar, Senegal.

· Friday, May 8, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates on a policy panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California.

· Friday, May 8, 7:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman participates on a policy panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026, Stanford, California.

· Friday, May 8, 7:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participate in panel before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026,”Independence, Structure, and Risks Ahead for Central Banks.”

U.S. Treasury Department

· Tuesday, May 5, 10:30 a.m. – The Treasury Department holds a closed meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. Agenda includes: The economy; Financial markets; Treasury financing; Debt management; and Written report of its recommendations.

· Wednesday, May 6, 2:00 p.m. – The Financial Stability Oversight Council will meet at the U.S. Treasury. The meeting will be only in executive session. The preliminary agenda for the executive session includes a presentation on the Council’s Market Resilience Working Group; a presentation on the Council’s Financial Market Utilities Committee; and a discussion on stablecoins.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, May 4, 1:40 p.m. ET – SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins is participating in a session entitled “Advancing a Modern Regulatory Framework” at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference 2026.

· Thursday, May 7 & 8. – The SEC’s Division of Economic and Risk Analysis 13th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation takes place at the SEC Headquarters in Washington, D.C. The two-day event to discuss Commission-related topics and priorities is done in partnership with Lehigh University’s Center for Financial Services and the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business. On May 7th, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda will deliver opening remarks and SEC Chief Economist Josh White will also give remarks. On May 8th, SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will give opening remarks and SEC Chair Paul Atkins will deliver a keynote speech at 11:30 a.m.

· Thursday, May 7, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

· Friday, May 8, 11:05 p.m. – SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins will deliver a keynote speech at the AI+ Expo hosted by the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Wednesday, May 6, 4:10 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Mike Selig participates in a fireside chat at the Consensus Crypto Conference in Miami, Florida.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Thursday, May 7, 1:15 p.m. – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2026 Regulatory Reporting Seminar in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, May 5, 11:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion on “Housing Innovators: Building the Future of Affordable Housing.”

· Tuesday – Thursday, May 5 – 7 – the American Bankers Association holds its annual Risk and Compliance Conference in Charlotte, North Carolina.

· Wednesday, May 6, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds its Annual Insurance Colloquium in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

May 3 - 10, 2026

ASEAN Leaders Gather in the Philippines as EU Leaders Meet in Armenia, Russia’s Muted Victory Parade, Trump Readies for his China Trip, Iran Offers the U.S. New Terms, the UK Holds Important Local Elections, and Markets Await Another Big Earnings Week

As the world continues to scramble to understand and mitigate the growing economic risks emanating out of the Iran War, leaders in two key regions are going to be meeting this week to discuss it all. First, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will gather in Cebu, the Philippines. It is a packed agenda but top of mind is the skyrocketing cost of oil and the impact on national economies. Many of the member countries are highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil and are finding it increasingly difficult to find alternative sources. As a result, a number of countries have already implemented emergency measures such as the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

Leaders will also be talking about ongoing regional security issues such as tensions in the South China Sea, the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, and simmering Cambodian-Thai border skirmishes.

Meanwhile, in Armenia, European leaders will be gathering for the European Political Community (EPC) Summit. This is the biggest gathering of European leaders in the South Caucasus ever. The EPC was established in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and includes 47 heads of state. Top of the agenda is the growing global economic crisis and what can be done to help bring an end to the Iran War.

Also attending will be Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (as part of Canada’s growing political and economic relations as a result of seemingly non-stop trade tariffs from the U.S.) as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. All told, the gathering represents 24 percent of the global GDP and 690 people (almost nine percent of the global population).

On Saturday, Russia is holding its annual Victory Day Parade, celebrating its victory over Nazi Germany. But this parade held in Moscow - as well as parades held in other Russian cities – will be different from virtually every other parade held over the last 81 years as President Vladimir Putin has ordered a significant scaling back of the event, omitting tanks, armored vehicles, missile systems, and the traditional march of naval cadets. Putin, citing “terrorist threats” will only allow air force displays and some troop marching. The “terrorist threat” being attacks by Ukrainian drone forces which increasingly have successfully struck Russian military and oil/gas facilities deep inside Russia. Extensive netting is being put over Moscow streets where the parade is taking place to defend against possible drone strikes. The Ukrainian strikes are as deep as 2,000 kilometers into Russia. Moreover, Ukrainian forces have regained net territory for the first time since 2023 while Russian forces lost an estimated 35,000 soldiers killed or wounded in April alone. Clearly, the war is not going well for Russia.

Also of note in Europe this week are local elections in the UK. Widely seen as a likely indicator of the political future of the Labor Government and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, polls are suggesting a nationwide “anyone but Labour” vote. Depending on how rough the outcome is for the Labour Party, it could be a final blow to Starmer’s government and facilitate a call for new national elections.

In Asia, the big events is Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s three-day visit to Australia. This morning (Monday) she signed a new cooperation agreement with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to deepen trade on energy and critical minerals. This comes after the two countries signed a landmark defense deal.

ShareFinally, markets should expect to hear a lot more this coming week about President Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing on May 14-15. The summit aims to stabilize U.S.-China relations, addressing trade, technology, and geopolitical tensions, and to seek cooperation regarding the Iran war. Indeed, it is likely Trump will look to Chinese President Xi to step up efforts to pressure Iran to move further on a deal. This trip represents the first visit to China by a U.S. president in nearly 10 years. President Trump will be accompanied by First Lady Melania Trump and his son, Eric Trump. We should expect an uptick on news reports and leaks from the Administration further detailing the U.S. goals and what markets should expect from the visit.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, starting in the U.S., jobs will be the big focus for markets. The JOLTS report is out on Tuesday, the ADP report on Wednesday, and the April jobs report on Friday. Additionally, the ISM Service Index on Tuesday, Q1 nonfarm payrolls on Thursday, and the jobs reports and the University of Michigan Consumer Survey on Friday.

In Europe, it is a relatively light data week. Germany reports factory orders on Tuesday and trade figures on Friday, and we will see the Eurozone March retail sales.

Turning to Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates on Tuesday, we will get a CPI report from South Koea on Wednesday along with PMI numbers from China.

But the big financial news of the week is the flood of corporate earnings reports this week. Markets (and Washington) will be focused on a number of companies and how they are being impacted by the Iran War and the growing impact from oil/gas and other shortages.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Global

· OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Memorial Day in Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Retail Sales YoY (April)/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through May 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives are out of session this week.

· This week, following President Trump’s announcement last week, 25% tariffs will be applied to all trucks and cars from Europe.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium in New York.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium, Washington, D.C.

· The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. He will be accompanied by Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers.

· Mexico Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA Factory Orders (March)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (March)/Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

· EARNINGS: Palantir, Williams Companies, Diamondback Energy, Loews, Tyson Foods, Telus, CNA Financial, AES, Norwegian Cruise Line, Vaornado, NexGen Energy, Erop Copper, Alamo, Cargojet, Grupo MexicoGruop Carso, Inbursa, BB Seguridade

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India holds ballot counting for April elections held in four states, including politically crucial West Bengal that borders Bangladesh, and a federally governed territory. Results are expected on the same day. Most exit polls give an edge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal, which it has never ruled before. If these projections hold, it will give a massive boost to the BJP, whose traditional regional strongholds are the country’s north and west.

· China continues to celebrate Labor Day. Financial markets are closed.

· Today is Nature Day in Japan, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/Building Permits (March)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)/ Private House Approvals (March)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels. Ministers will hear from the Chairs of the Single Supervisory Mechanism and of the Single Resolution Board as part of their twice-yearly reporting. They will also discuss cross-border banking issues with Slawomir Krupa, President of the European Banking Federation. Additionally, ministers will assess the impact of the Middle East conflict on the EU economy and will discuss policy measures to address the crisis. Ministers will also hear a presentation by Christian Noyer and Jörg Kukies on their recommendations for giving start-ups and scale-ups better access to private capital.

· The 8th Meeting of the European Political Community takes place in Yerevan, Armenia. ring together leaders from across the continent in Yerevan, Armenia, under the motto ‘Building the Future: Unity and Stability in Europe’. Leaders will discuss how to cooperate more closely and coordinate action to strengthen democratic resilience, advance connectivity and reinforce economic and energy security. The summit will be co-chaired by António Costa, the President of the European Council, and Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. The meeting will take place ahead of the first-ever EU-Armenia bilateral summit.

· The EU-Armenia Summit will take place through May 5th in Yerevan, Armenia. Leaders will discuss progress made with regard to ensuring peace, security, connectivity and prosperity in the South Caucasus. In August 2025, the EU welcomed the initialing of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty and the signing of a political declaration. This agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan marks a significant breakthrough to end decades of conflict and paves the way to lasting, sustainable peace for both countries and across the entire region.

· Finnish President Alexander Stubb will visit the Czech Republic.

· The German Forum on Security Policy begins in Berlin and runs through Thursday.

· Today is Early May Bank Holiday in the United Kingdom. The government, banks, and financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded interview at the joint ECB-Banca d’Italia-€ABCN-CEPR workshop on Digital assets and Monetary Policy Transmission in Rome, Italy.

· The European Central Bank publishes its 2026 annual report.

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Hungary PPI (March)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI APR

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)/ PPI (April)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ECB Buch Speech/ECB President Lagarde Speech/Eurogroup Meeting/ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· EARNINGS: HSBC, AXA, Infineon, Ferrari, Ferguson, Leonardo SpA, Alcon AG, Logitech, Covestro, Fresenius Medical, Hugo Boss, Amplifon

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Following China’s May 1st expansion of zero-tariff access for 53 African states, trade ministries in major hubs (Nairobi, Lagos, and Cairo) are expected to hold briefings this week to outline the logistical framework for increased exports to Chinese markets.

· The World Press Freedom Day Global Conference takes place in Lusaka, Zambia. The UNESCO-backed summit is titled “Shaping a Future of Peace,” and gathers regional leaders and journalists. A major focal point will be the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on journalism—a timely topic given South Africa’s recent policy withdrawal due to AI-generated errors.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)

Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Global

· The G7 Trade Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Trade Representative is scheduled to begin public hearings on investigations into the trade practices of the European Union, China, Mexico, and other countries.

· In the United States, primary elections will be held in Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, New Jersey, and West Virginia. This is the first major test of President Trump’s endorsement clout in 2026: he endorsed challengers to eight Indiana GOP state senators who voted down his congressional redistricting push, with allies spending millions to oust them. Results will be read as a referendum on his intra-party leverage heading into the midterms.

· Mexico will celebrate Cinco de Mayo, commemorating its 1862 military victory.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on banking regulation at an event with Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods in Oxford, United Kingdom.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)/Building Permits (February)/Building Permits (March)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ Redbook (May/02)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)/New Home Sales (February)/New Home Sales (March)/ ISM Services Business Activity (April)/ ISM Services Employment (April)/ISM Services Prices (April)/ISM Services New Orders (April)/ JOLTs Job Quits (March)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/01)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI/(April)

· Columbia Exports (March)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· EARNINGS: Advanced Micro, Shopify, Pfizer, Duke Energy, KKR, Emerson Electric, Cummins, Suncor Energy, Rockwell Automation, Cameco, PayPal, Ambev, Occidental Petroleum, Fiserv, Prudential Financial, Archer-Daniels, Live Nation, Devon Energy, Leidos, Dupont, XP, Qorvo, Lumen Tech, Voya, Raia Drogasil, Celenese, Colliers, Sunoco, Cabot, EQB

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visits Australia for bilateral meetings with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The two leaders will sign new mutual defense agreements as well as arrange closer economic ties, especially around the trade in critical minerals.

· Vietnam’s President To Lam will visit India through May 7th.

· The SAHA 2026 International Defense & Aerospace Exhibition begins in Istanbul, Turkey and runs through May 9. More than 260 foreign companies and delegations will participate, with 39% being from Asia, according to the organizers. Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Australia will be represented for the first time -- either through companies or as delegations -- while company participants from China are expected to increase compared with the 2024 event.

· Today is Children’s Day in South Korea, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Asia Development Bank holds its 59th meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistanthrough Wednesday.

· Australia S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ Household Spending (March)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/RBA Press Conference

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (April)

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Singapore Retail Sales (March)

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv Q1

· Pakistan balance of trade

· EARNINGS: Grab

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. The Council is expected to agree on new rules giving the European public prosecutor’s office (EPPO) and the European anti-fraud office (OLAF) access to EU-level VAT information, thereby strengthening the fight against value added tax fraud in the EU. Ministers will also hold a policy debate on the market integration and supervision package - a key element of the EU’s saving and investment union. The Council is expected to adopt an implementing decision approving the modified recovery and resilience plan of Denmark. They will also discuss recovery and resilience plans to allow member states to benefit from the EU’s recovery and resilience fund, a financial support program to help repair the economic and social damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

· Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache testifies before Norway’s parliament on the management of the government pension fund.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives introductory remarks at the Climate, Nature and Price Stability Conference organized by the ECB, Frankfurt School and CETEX in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB Board Chief Economist Philip Lane will give the keynote speech.

· Spain New Car Sales (April)/ Unemployment Change (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Italy New Car Registrations (April)

· Romania PPI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)/Inflation Rate (April)

· France Budget Balance (March)

· UK New Car Sales (April)/ BoE Woods Speech

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

· Serbia PPI (April)

· Turkey Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (March)

· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (April)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (April)

· Israel Unemployment Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ S&P Global PMI (April)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (April)

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Global

· The World Trade Organization General Council meeting takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for April is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is scheduled to testify before the House Oversight Committee on his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy.

· St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participates in a discussion at the Mississippi Bankers Association annual convention.

· USA MBA Mortgage Applications (May/01)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/01)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/01)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/01)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (May/01

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ Car Production (April)/New Car Registrations (April)

· Canada Ivey PMI (April)

· Columbia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· EARNINGS: Disney, Uber, Marriott, CVS Health, DoorDash, Apollo, Warner Bros, Johnson Controls, MetLife, Loblaw Companies, Exelon, Great West Lifeco, NRG Energy, TKO Group, SunLife Financial, Nutrient, Kraft Heinz, Fortis, Restaurant Brands, Canadian Utilities, TOTVS, TransAlta, Snap

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Employment Change Q1/Unemployment Rate Q1/ Labour Costs Index Q1/Participation Rate Q1/Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/05)

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (April)/ Ai Group Construction Index (April)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (April)/ RBA Chart Pack

· South Korea Inflation Rate (April)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

· Philippines Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (April)/ RatingDog Composites PMI (April)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (April)/ HSBC Services PMI (April)

· Thailand Business Confidence (April)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a presentation at the House of the Euro event in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at the 2nd Kiel-CEPR Conference on Monetary Policy – Central Bank Independence in the Spotlight organized by Kiel Institut in Berlin, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech at the AsVis Sustainable Development Festival “Si puo’ fare! Capitale, impresa, futuro: investire nella transizione” in Milan, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech and participates on a panel discussion at an event on the occasion of the retirement of Mathias Dewatripont organized by Université libre de Bruxelles in Brussels, Belgium.

· Ireland IB Services PMI (April)

· France New Car Registrations (April)/ Industrial Production (March)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)

· Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)

· Hungary Industrial Production (March)

· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ PPI (March)

· UK S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (May)

· EARNINGS: UniCredit, Daimler Truck Holding AG, Heidelberg Cement, Fresenius, Poste Italane, Continental, Lufthansa, Telecom Italia, Banca Generali, HelloFresh

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kuwait 2 Money Supply (March)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

Thursday, May 7, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Paraguay’s President Santiago Pena will visit Taiwan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Fed 101 and policy” in a fireside chat before the 2026 Ohio CEO Summit: “Blueprints for Bold Leadership.”

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President & CEO Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Milken Institute in Beverly Hills, California.

· Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari participates in fireside chat at Northern Michigan University in Marquette, Michigan.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/02)/ Used Car Prices (April)/ Construction Spending (March)/ Construction Spending (February)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/01)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/07)/30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/06)

· Brazil Industrial Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

· Argentina Industrial Production (March)

· Columbia PPI (April)

· EARNINGS: McDonalds, Giliead Sciences, McKesson, Canadian Natural Resources, Airbnb, Motorola, Sempra Energy, Grainger, Coinbase, Trade Desk, Expedia, EchoStart, Carlyle, Paramount Skydance, Lyft

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A two-day ASEAN ministerial meeting will start in Cebu in the Philippines, marking the opening of this year’s ASEAN Summit, with the Philippines serving as the chair. Urgent priority will be placed on handling the energy crisis stemming from the war in the Middle East. The region’s powers also want to reach an agreement on a code of conduct in the South China Sea as China increases its military presence. However, there are lingering tensions within the bloc, including in Myanmar following its general election, and the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. Attention is expected to be given on all these fronts.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Monetary Base

· Australia Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Kazakhstan PPI (April)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· South Korea Retail Sales (March)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The United Kingdom will hold local and devolved elections across England, Scotland and Wales.

· German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier meets his Finnish counterpart Alexander Stubb in Helsinki to discuss support for Ukraine, industrial co-operation and the situation in the Middle East.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the keynote speech at the conference European Financial Integration 2026 jointly organized by the European Commission and the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson chairs a panel discussion at conference European Financial Integration 2026 jointly organized by the European Commission and the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel delivers the 5th Annual Charles Goodhart Lecture 2026 in London, United Kingdom.

· The Bank of England’s Agenda for Research (BEAR) Conference takes place in London and runs through Friday. This year’s theme is “The Interconnected World.”

· Germany Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· Romania Retail Sales (March)

· Hungary Retail Sales (March)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· UK S&P Global Construction PMI (April)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (April)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/01)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (March)

· EARNINGS: Shell, Enel, Rheinmetall, Siemens Healthineers, Legrand, Bouygues, Mediobanca, Henkel, Pirelli, Maersk, Swiss Re, Lufthansa, BMW, Kongsberg, Novo Nordisk, Philips, AP Møller-Maersk, AcelorMIttal

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· EARNINGS: Gold Fields

Friday, May 8, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report. Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech entitled “Perspectives on Tokenization and Implications for the Financial System” at the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) Conference on Digital Assets, Dakar, Senegal.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates on a policy panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman participates on a policy panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participate in panel before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026,”Independence, Structure, and Risks Ahead for Central Banks.”

· Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

· Chile Inflation Rate (April)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Full Time Employment Change (April)/ Part Time Employment Chg (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Wages (April)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Earnings (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Weekly Hours (April)/ Government Payrolls (April)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (April)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (April)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (April)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (May)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)/ Michigan Current Conditions (May)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/08)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

· Columbia Inflation Rate (April)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

· EARNINGS: Enbridge, Embraer, Starwood Property, Algonquin Power & Utilities, Wendy’s, YPF, Brookfield Management

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines will host the 48th summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Cebu.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (March)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (March)/ Overtime Pay (March)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Property Price Index Q1

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (March)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/01)

· EARNINGS: Toyota Motor, Nintendo

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the Banco de España LatAm Economic Forum 2026 in Roda de Bará, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at the XII Foro Megatendencias organized by el Economista in Madrid Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at Reinoldimahl in Dortmund, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollon gives a pre-recorded video interview for Voices on the Future during AsVis Sustainable Development Festival in Rome, Italy.

· Day 2 of The Bank of England’s Agenda for Research (BEAR) Conference takes place in London. This year’s theme is “The Interconnected World.” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will participate in a fireside chat.

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· UK Halifax House Price Index (April)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)/

· Turkey Industrial Production (March)/ Treasury Cash Balance (April)

· Greece Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Spain Industrial Production (March)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (April)

· EARNINGS: Commerzbank, Intesa Sanpaulo

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Indonesia Car Sales (April)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

· Angola Inflation Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Hungarian Parliament officially votes in Peter Magyar as the new prime minister.

· Russia celebrates the 81st Victory Day (defeat of the Nazis) which includes the traditional Victory Day Parade in Moscow. However, President Vladimir Putin has ordered the parade to be scaled back due to the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes. Additionally, the Russian Army is putting up netting over the parade route to protect the parade from drone attacks.

· Today is Europe Day, commemorating the moment in 1950 when French foreign minister Robert Schuman proposed deeper co-operation across the continent, laying the foundations for what has become the European Union.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives the keynote speech at the 58th Soroptimist Ireland North-South Conference in Drogheda, Ireland.

· Greece Balance of Trade (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Hungary Budget Balance (April)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Global

· It is Mother’s Day in Australia and Canada today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Micronesia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of Ministers for European Affairs through May 11thin Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a virtual conversation at the Ventotene Europa festival 2026 in Rome, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

The Global Week Ahead

Geopolitics and Central Bank Action Converge, King Charles Visits Washington in an Effort to Bolster “The Special Relationship”, Japan’s Prime Minister Visits Vietnam and Australia, and a Big Corporate Earnings Week

April 26 - May 3, 2026

It is a big week for markets and geopolitics as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada each meet on monetary policy while the Iran War remains stalemated. 

Efforts to move forward on negotiations between the United States and Iran failed this past weekend.  President Trump pulled back his two lead negotiators, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, from going to Islamabad, Pakistan, mostly because it was not clear Iranian negotiators would show up.

The situation is likely to remain fluid this week as Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and other countries try to quietly patch together next steps for talks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, meanwhile, is traveling to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the situation.  But one thing is clear: The Strait of Hormuz remains essentially bottled up as the U.S. Navy continues its blockade (enhanced now as a third aircraft carrier strike group led by the USS George Bush arrives in the region). 

Central banks are watching the Iran situation closely and its impact on the global economy, trying to decide interest rate policy. The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy on Tuesday, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and Bank of Canada announce their decisions on Wednesday, and the Bank of England on Thursday.  Market consensus points to all five central banks holding on any moves on rates.

We would note that it now appears Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell, will move forward after the U.S. Justice Department drops its criminal investigation of Powell.  Dropping the case allows a number of U.S. Senators who had vowed to block Warsh’s confirmation until the investigation was dropped to allow the vote to move forward.  The Senate Banking Committee is now scheduled to hold a confirmation vote on Warsh on Wednesday, which means the full Senate could vote by the end of the week.

Also this week, King Charles will be in Washington for the first state visit by a British monarch to the United States in almost 20 years.  While the King and Queen Camilla will tour the US as part of their visit, it comes with a critical purpose for the UK: mending and reinforcing the “US-UK special relationship,” which has become increasingly brittle in recent months as President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have sparred on everything from trade to the Iran War.

Elsewhere in the world this week, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit Vietnam and then Australia.  Her visit to Vietnam is particularly important as she is expected to stress Japan’s determination to push a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” agenda, seeking Vietnam’s greater involvement in ensuring maritime security in the South China Sea – pushing back on China’s growing aggressive efforts to control the sea. 

Takaichi is then expected to travel to Australia to meet with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, where the two leaders will sign an economic security pact focusing on critical minerals, while also hammering out new agreements covering energy assurances and greater defense cooperation.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the central bank meetings discussed above are the major focus.  But there are a number of major economic reports being released this week that markets are watching closely.  In the US, Q1 GDP is released on Thursday, as is the March PCE (a favorite data point for the Federal Reserve when deciding on interest rates).  The US Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index on Tuesday, while the ISM Manufacturing Index is out on Friday.

In Asia, China’s PMIs are released on Thursday and Japan’s industrial production, retail sales, and consumer confidence are out on Thursday, and the April Tokyo CPI is out on Friday.

And in Europe this week, Germany and Spain report April CPI on Wednesday.  The Eurozone Q1 GDP is out on Thursday. 

Finally, we would note that this week is a very big week for corporate earnings.  It will be quite interesting to hear the collective forward guidance from many companies as economic uncertainty grows as a result of the Iran War.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 27, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.   

·       The UN’s International Conference on Effective Nuclear and Radiation Regulatory Systems: Strengthening Competence, Agility and Connection in the Modern Era will take place through April 30th in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s King Charles III and Queen Camilla begin a state visit to the US, which includes a White House State Banquet and an Address before Congress.

·       The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Brazil Bank Lending MoM (February)/ Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Verizon, Nucor, Fairfax Financial (CAN), Universal Health Services, Crown Holdings, Domino’s Pizza, Crane,

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Food and Beverage Innovation Forum begins in Hangzhou, China.  The three-day event will cover the latest food trends and technologies, while investors will be scouting for deals, as global chains like Starbucks partner with private equity firms to compete in the world's No. 2 economy.

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog will pay an official visit to Astana, Kazakhstan, through April 28th.

·       Anzac Day is observed in New Zealand.  Financial markets are closed.

·       The militaries of the United States, the Philippines, Australia, Japan and other US partners will jointly conduct the Balikatan drills in the Philippines through May 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits YoY (March)/National People's Congress Standing Committee 

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Maylasia PPI YoY

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (February)/ Leading Economic Index Final (February)

·       Singapore Industrial Production MoM (March)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)

·       EARNINGS: Hitachi, Daiwa Securities, JERA

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss the strategic importance of agriculture and sustainable forest management in strengthening wildfire risk prevention and resilience, Post-2027 CAP proposals: key design choices for income support, and the overall market situation, in particular following the invasion of Ukraine and the Iran War.

·       The UK Parliament’s Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy takes evidence from former defense secretary and Nato secretary-general Lord George Robertson and foreign affairs adviser Fiona Hill, both of whom were involved in last year’s British strategic defense review.

·       The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute publishes annual military expenditure data.

·       Slovenia celebrates the Day of Uprising Against Occupation, commemorating when 1941 Slovenia was overrun by Nazi forces.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at joint Karlspreis and Helmut Kohl Foundation event "Blossoming Landscapes 2.0 – A New Agenda for Europe" organized by the International Charlemagne Prize of Aachen and Bundeskanzler Helmut Kohl Foundation in Aachen, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (April)

·       EARNINGS: Deutsche Bourse

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire is set to expire.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       South Africa celebrates Freedom Day, a national holiday and financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Sierra Leon Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Independence Day in Togo, a national holiday.

·       The 15th annual Connected Africa Summit, focusing on digital inclusion and innovation, gathers in Nairobi, Kenya.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East.

·       The Joint Bank for International Settlements, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and IMF Spillover Conference begins in Washington and runs through April 29th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Genting Malaysia will launch New York City's first live table games at Resorts World New York City, transforming the slots-only venue into a full-scale casino. The rollout includes 240 table games with more than 1,500 blackjack, craps, baccarat and roulette positions, alongside over 2,500 slot machines, with thousands more to be added later this year.

·       Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presents the Spring Economic Statement to the Canadian parliament in Ottawa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI MoM (April)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook YoY (April)/25/S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY (February)/ Home Price Index (February)/Home Price Index MoM (February)/CB Consumer Confidence (April)/Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (April)/Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (April)/Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/Dallas Fed Services Index (April)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (April)/ Money Supply (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/24)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Visa, Coca-Cola, T-Mobile, S&P Global, Starbucks, General Motors, UPS, Waste Management, Hilton, Robinhood, Vale (Brazil), Sysco, Fair Isaac, Kimberly Clark, Omnicom, Franklin Resources, Invesco, Seaboard, Caesars Entertainment, JetBlue, NCR

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 25th Asean-EU ministerial meeting in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan meets on monetary policy.  A press conference will follow the meeting.

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (March)/Jobs/applications ratio (March)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Hong Kong Imports/Exports YoY (March)/Balance of Trade (March)         

·       India Industrial Production YoY/Manufacturing Production YoY (March)

·       EARNINGS: China Merchants Bank, Sinopec, Mitsubishi Electric, Fujitsu, China Pacific Insurance, TDK, Bank of Beijing, Tokyo Gas, NEC, TDK

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Transport Ministers through April 29 in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy speaks at the JP Morgan UK Banks Asset Management & Liability Management Conference in London.

·       Norges Bank Investment Management hosts its annual investment conference in Oslo, with speakers including World Bank President Ajay Banga and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.

·       Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an informal dinner and exchange of views with the Governing Council with EU Commissioner for Financial Services and the Savings and Investments Union Maria Luís Albuquerque in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q1/Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Italy Industrial Sales MoM (February)/ PPI MoM (March)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (March)/Jobseekers Total (March)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (April)/Interest Rate Decision

·       Slovenia Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       EARNINGS: Airbus, BP, Taylor Wimpey, WPP, Barclays

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator MoM (February)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate YoY Q4

Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations peacekeeping operations.

·       G7 Development Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. International Trade Commission will hold a preliminary conference on whether PTMEG imports from China, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam are injuring U.S. producers, which could lead to duties on specialty chemicals.

·       Bloomberg hosts its annual Bloomberg House in Miami, Florida.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The U.S. Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.

·       The Bank of Canada meets to consider monetary policy.  There will be a press conference in the afternoon with BoC Governor Tiff Macklem.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM (April)/ PPI MoM (March)/Interest Rate Decision

·       USA  MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/24)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/24)/ Building Permits Prel (February)/ Building Permits Prel (March)/ Durable Goods Orders MoM (March)/ Housing Starts (February)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Building Permits MoM Prel (February)/ Building Permits MoM Prel (March)/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM MAR/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (March)/ Housing Starts MoM (March)/ Housing Starts MoM (February)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM Adv (March)/ Wholesale Inventories MoM Adv (March)/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM (March)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (March)/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (April/17)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (March)

·       EARNINGS: Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, AbbVie, Qualcomm, ADP, General Dynamics, Canadian National Railway, Allstate, Ford, Old Dominion Freight, Yum Brands, Vulcan Materials, Banco Santander Brazil, CGI (CAN), Stanley Black & Decker, MGM Resorts, Penske Automotive, American Financial, Capital Power (CAN), Choice Properties (CAN), Blackstone Mortgage, Aflac, Humana, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, SoFi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit Vietnam. She is expected to give a major foreign policy speech whereby she will renew Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy" diplomatic policy initiative.  The initiative is aimed to bring greater focus on economic security, including bolstering supply chains for critical goods and expanding energy security, according to the sources.

·       Japan begins Golden Week, a series of national public holidays.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Inflation Rate YoY (March)/Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY Q1/CPI (March)/RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (March)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Gov Breman Speech

·       Singapore Import/Export Prices YoY (March)/PPI YoY (March)

·       China National People's Congress Standing Committee

·       Thailand Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Japan Housing Starts YoY (March)/ Construction Orders YoY (March)

·       India M3 Money Supply YoY (April/17)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       EARNINGS: CNOOC, Foxconn, Ping An Insurance, Peoples Insurance Company, China Northern Rare Earth, HKEX

Europe                                                                                                 

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through April 30 in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank Governing Council begins two days of meetings on monetary policy.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Insurance Supervision Gareth Trunan speaks at the 23rd Annual Conference on Bulk Annuities in London.

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (April)/Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (March)/ Economic Confidence Index (April)/ Participation Rate (March)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies YoY (March)/ Loans to Households YoY (March)/ M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Economic Sentiment (April)/ Consumer Confidence Final (April)/ Industrial Sentiment (April)/Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Selling Price Expectations (April)/ Services Sentiment (April)/ECB Buch Speech

·       Germany Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM (April)/ Bavaria CPI MoM (April)/ Brandenburg CPI MoM (April)/ Hesse CPI MoM (April)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM (April)/Saxony CPI MoM (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)

·       Italy Business Confidence (April)/Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (March)/ Total Credit YoY (March)

·       Great Britain Car Production YoY (March)

·       France GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Household Consumption MoM (March)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Corporate Profits (February)/ Real Wage Growth YoY (February)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)

·       EARNINGS: Novartis, Banco Santander, Total Energies, AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Lloyds Bank, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Mercedes Benz AG, Edessa, Adidas, Michelin, Porsche AG,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Blockchain DeFi & Web3 Summit meets in Lagos, Nigeria.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, April 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Antigua and Barbuda hold elections for their House of Representatives.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (March)/ Nominal Budget Balance (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Net Payrolls (March)

·       USA  Core PCE Price Index MoM (March)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1/ Personal Income MoM (March)/ Personal Spending MoM (March)/ Employment Cost - Benefits QoQ Q1/ Employment Cost Benefits/Employment Cost Wages QoQ Q1/ Employment Cost Index QoQ Q1/ GDP Price Index QoQ Adv Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/25)/ PCE Price Index MoM (March)/ PCE Price Index Continuing Jobless Claims (April/18) /Core PCE Price Index YoY (March)/ GDP Sales QoQ Adv Q1/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (April/25)/PCE Prices QoQ Adv Q1/ Real Consumer Spending QoQ Adv Q1/ Real Personal Spending MoM (March)/ Chicago PMI (April)/ CB Leading Index MoM (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/24)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate /30/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/29)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ Fiscal Balance (March)

·       Canda GDP MoM (February)/ GDP MoM Prel (March)/ Average Weekly Earnings YoY (February)

·       Chile Copper Production YoY (March)/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Manufacturing Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Columbia Business Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production YoY (March)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: Apple, Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Merck, Amgen, ConocoPhillips, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Altria, Southern, Royal Caribbean, Intercontinental Exchange, Cigna, L3Harris, Valero Energy, Carrier, Cardinal Health, AIG, Hershey, Xcel Energy, Martin Marietta Materials, Iron Mountain, LPL Financial, T. Rowe Price, Textron, Alliant Energy, Hyatt Hotels, Bombardier (CAN), Clorox, International Paper, Rivian Auto, AES, Molson Coors, Encompass Heath, Baxter International, LKQ, Eastman Chemical, Choice Hotels, NexGen Energy (CAN), CNO Financial, Federated Hermes, Air Canada, Weyerhaeuser, Fomento Economico Mexica

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro speaks at the Manila Overseas Press Club's DFA Night on April 30; she is expected to address ASEAN hosting, the Iran war, the West Philippine Sea dispute with China, and energy security. Worth tracking for Manila's posture going into the summit.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production MoM (March)/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Japan Industrial Production MoM Prel (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)/ Retail Sales MoM (March)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (April)

·       Australia Import/Export Prices QoQ Q1/ Housing Credit MoM (March)/ Private Sector Credit MoM (March)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices MoM (April)

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI (April)/ NBS General PMI (April)/ National People's Congress Standing Committee/ KOF Leading Indicators (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (March)/ Unemployment Rate Prel Q1/ Business Confidence Q1

·       Thailand New Car Sales YoY (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Consumption MoM (March)/ Private Investment MoM (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (February)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment YoY Q1

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply YoY (March)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q1

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate YoY (April)

·       EARNINGS: Samsung Electronics, ICBC, China Life Insurance, China Yangtze Power, Postal Savings Bank of China, Industrial Bank of China, Toyota Tsusho, China CITIC Bank, China Bank of Communications, Cosco Shipping, East Japan Railways, Kyocera, SAIC Motor, China Steel, China Securities, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, ANA, Japan Air, DBS, China State Shipbuilding

Europe       

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of meetings on monetary policy.  ECB President Christine Lagarde will then hold a press conference.

·       The Bank of England meets to consider monetary policy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a presentation at the Danish Economic Society in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential David Baile will participate in a fireside chat at International Swaps and Derivatives Association 40th annual general meeting in Boston, Massachusetts.

·       United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices MoM (April)/ MPC Meeting Minutes

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1

·       France GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel Q1/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1/ Household Consumption MoM (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/PPI MoM (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls QoQ Prel Q1

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1/ Current Account (February)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (April)

·       Turkey Balance of Trade Final (March)/Import/Export Final (March)/ Tourism Revenues Q1/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (March)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/24)

·       Poland Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)

·       Germany Retail Sales MoM (March)/Import Prices MoM (March)/ Unemployed Persons (April)/ Unemployment Change (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)/ GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate YoY Prel (April)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate MoM Prel (April)

·       Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate MoM (April)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q1/ Inflation Rate YoY Flash (April)/ Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ CPI Flash (April)/ Deposit Facility Rate

·       Greece PPI YoY (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (February)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q1/ Industrial Production YoY (March)/ Retail Sales YoY (March)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/Current Account (March)

·       EARNINGS: Schneider Electric, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Deutsche Post, Standard Chartered, Credit Agricole, BASF, Willis Towers Watson, Repsol, Volkswagen, MTU Aero Engines AG, Puma, Air France, ArcelorMittal, Rolls Royce

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate YoY Prel Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI MoM (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Private Sector Credit YoY (March)

Friday, May 1, 2026

Global

·       China assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of May. There will be a press briefing with Ambassador Fu Cong, Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, who will serve as head of the Security Council for the month.

· May Day public holiday observed in multiple countries, including China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Germany, and France; financial markets closed in several regions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       A bipartisan U.S. senatorial delegation, led by Senator Steve Daines (R-MT), will visit China ahead of the planned May 14-15 summit between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

·       King Charles and Queen Camilla begin a two-day visit, having completed their tour in the United States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Net Payrolls (March)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (April)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (April)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/01)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/01)

·       Peru Inflation Rate MoM (April)

·       EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, Canadian Pacific Railway, Colgate Palmolive, TransCanada, Imperial Oil (CAN), Dominion Resources, Estee Lauder, CBOE, Church & Dwight, Telus (CAN), Magna International (CAN), Moderna, AutoNation, Lear, Goodyear, Newell Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is scheduled to implement a zero-tariff coverage for exports from 53 African countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Beijing.

·       Today is Constitution Day in the Marshall Islands, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (April)/ Building Permits MoM (March)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ PPI QoQ Q1/ Commodity Prices YoY (April)

·       South Korea Exports/Imports/YoY/Balance of Trade (April)

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ Tokyo Core CPI YoY (April)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (April)/ Tokyo CPI YoY (April)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/25)

·       Sri Lanka PPI YoY (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate MoM (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth YoY (April/17)/ Deposit Growth YoY (April/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/24)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate MoM (April)/ Wholesale Prices YoY (April)

·       EARNINGS: Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Seiko Epson

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Much of Europe celebrates Labor Day.  Most banks, financial markets, and the European Central Bank are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will present at the virtual National Agency Briefing on Monetary Policy in London.

·       Russia GDP YoY (March)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales MoM (March)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (March)/ Mortgage Approvals (March)/ Mortgage Lending (March)/ M4 Money Supply MoM (March)/ Net Lending to Individuals MoM (March)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (April)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Turkey Imports/Exports Prel/Balance of Trade Prel (April)

·       EARNINGS: Linde, AON, Pearson, NatWest

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply YoY (March)/ Private Bank Lending YoY (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Inflation Rate YoY (April)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate YoY (April)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       South Africa Budget Balance (March)

Saturday, May 2, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Niue – the self-governing Polynesian island country that is a part of New Zealand – holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Global

·       OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Retail Sales YoY (April)/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers on May 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Foreign Private Capital Overtook Central Banks in the Treasury Market, U.S. Grand Strategy and China, and How a Quiet US – AU Deal Could Reshape Investment in Africa

April 24 - 26, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

Geoeconomics, Financial Markets, and AI

• Foreign Private Capital Has Overtaken Central Banks in the Treasury Market Torsten Sløk Apollo

  For the first time, foreign private buyers own more Treasuries than the foreign official sector, Slok notes, suggesting the “Treasury market [may be] increasingly sensitive to the return expectations of price-sensitive private capital.”

• Corporations in the Crosshairs: Commercial Actors, Conflict Escalation, and Crisis Simulation    Journal of Simulation and Gaming

  Abstract: The authors reach three substantive findings. First, the game demonstrated that cyber and kinetic attacks on commercial assets can trigger escalation—challenging arguments that attacks on commercial targets are less provocative than attacks on military and government targets. Second, the growing role of commercial firms in the international security arena makes communication channels for information sharing and coordination between the government and these firms critical for crisis management. Third, the wargame highlighted how relying on influential private sector leaders involves tradeoffs. These individuals can provide critical information to governments, leverage their companies to support government efforts, and help coordinate broader private sector engagement. However, they may also prioritize their own commercial interests over national ones. Additionally, the simulation revealed lessons that may assist designers of future simulations involving commercial actors.

• Drivers of Population Growth: Natural Increase vs. Net Migration    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  National population growth reflects both natural increase and net migration, with each factor shaping countries differently across income levels. Natural increase drove almost all population growth in poor countries from 1960 to 2023.  In rich countries, however, both natural increase and net migration sustained their population growth during that same period.
  

• Six Reasons Claude Mythos Is an Inflection Point for AI—and Global Security  Council on Foreign Relations

  Anthropic’s new AI model has taught itself to hack into software infrastructure systems believed to be among the most secure in history. While there is no question that the technology is profoundly dangerous, it is unclear if defenders will win a race against time to protect a sea of vulnerable targets.
  

• Forecasting the Economic Effects of AI     National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We elicit forecasts of how AI will affect the U.S. economy, comparing the beliefs of five groups: academic economists, employees at AI companies, policy researchers focused on AI, highly accurate forecasters, and the general public. The median respondent in each group expects substantial advances in AI capabilities by 2030, small declines in labor force participation consistent with demographic shifts, and an annual GDP growth rate of 2.5%, which exceeds both the typical medium-run (2.0%) and long-run (1.7%) baseline forecasts from government agencies and private-sector forecasters. Conditional on a “rapid” AI progress scenario, in which AI systems surpass human performance on many cognitive and physical tasks, experts forecast substantial, though not historically unprecedented, economic shifts: annualized GDP growth rising to around 4% and the labor force participation rate falling from its current level of 62% to 55% by 2050, with roughly half of that decline—equivalent to around 10 million lost jobs—attributable to AI. A variance decomposition suggests that expert disagreement about these effects is driven primarily by different beliefs about the economic effects of highly capable AI systems rather than by disagreement about the pace of AI progress. These forecasts map onto notably different policy preferences across groups: experts strongly favor targeted measures such as worker retraining, whereas the general public supports both targeted programs and broader interventions, including a job guarantee and universal basic income.
  

• ·Construction Costs Rarely Fall  Brian Potter Construction Physics

  Multiple measures show real construction costs have “virtually never fallen” since 1875, with the striking exception of 1975–95—consistent with input cost and productivity series. The upward drift is not new; if anything, it has moderated over time
  

Africa

• A quiet US-AU deal that could reshape investment in Africa     Africa Futures/AUDA NEPAD

  The Trump administration and the AU have started a bold journey that could ‘flip the script’ on decades of development cooperation. The Strategic Infrastructure and Investment Working Group (SIWG), formed on 28 January 2026, will enable senior officials and experts to identify investment opportunities, particularly involving the US private sector. It could strengthen African and US strategic options amid major-power rivalries globally. But both sides must ensure Africans’ full partnership as investors and decision makers in those projects.
  

• The Sudan War in 10 Charts     The Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Sudan’s civil war has now entered its fourth year, with its two main factions locked in a grinding war of attrition. The conflict began on April 15, 2023, between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary, led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, popularly known as Hemedti. Today, the country is split roughly in two, with the SAF in control of the east and the RSF in control of the west. As a result of the war, Sudan is now the world’s largest displacement and hunger crisis. Rape and sexual violence are both widespread and systematic and have become a defining feature of the war. Sudan’s rich cultural heritage, too, is being erased.

Impact of the Iran War

• The Iran War Is a Stress Test for Gulf States    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has had dire security and economic consequences for the Arab states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Iranian missiles and drones struck airports, hotels, and energy infrastructure across the region, triggering the largest oil supply shock in the history of global energy markets and a near-total collapse of aviation and tourism. Attacks on desalination plants have raised fears of a humanitarian emergency. Threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted over 70 percent of the region’s food imports. Externally, the war has prompted questions about the risks and costs of the region’s reliance on American security guarantees and bases. Beyond these effects, the Iran war is a stress test for domestic governance and social cohesion inside Gulf states, surfacing and sharpening preexisting fissures and vulnerabilities while introducing new pressures. Among the more prominent of these dynamics are a worsening crackdown on freedom of expression and increased securitization more broadly; a rise in sectarian tensions and internal scapegoating amid the very real threat of Iranian subversion; and the imperilment of the Gulf’s migrant labor communities, upon which much of the region’s prosperity relies. None of these shocks poses a serious challenge to stability or the survival of the region’s monarchies—Gulf regimes are hardly brittle and have weathered such shocks in the past.

• The Strait of Hormuz in 8 Charts     Center for Strategic and International Studies

  CSIS has put together a superb interactive, moving set of charts showing what is happening – and not happening – in the Strait.  Overall, access to the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly a quarter of global oil flows, remains contested. The waterway has been effectively closed since March 2, following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Although Tehran declared the strait open on April 17, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reversed course and announced it shut just one day later. The United States has since moved to enforce its own presence, including by seizing an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel on April 19. Vessel tracking and maritime trade data offer key insights into the ongoing dispute. 

• Last Rounds?  Status of Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire    The Center for Strategic and international Studies

  Concern about the status of U.S. munitions inventories has intensified as reports emerge about high expenditures of Tomahawks, Patriots, and other missiles in the Iran war. As Operation Epic Fury remains paused in a shaky ceasefire, there is an opportunity to assess whether the U.S. military nears the point of going “Winchester”—or running out of ammunition.  Analysis of seven key munitions shows that the United States has enough missiles to continue fighting this war under any plausible scenario. The risk—which will persist for many years—lies in future wars.

Strategy Going Forward from the U.S. And German Perspectives

• US Grand Strategy and the China Factor with Nadia Schadlow    China Considered Podcast

  Dr. Elizabeth Economy sits down with Nadia Schadlow, former deputy national security advisor for strategy in the first Trump administration and author of the influential 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS). Schadlow reflects on how the NSS was architected around the shift toward great power competition and America's four core national security interests: protecting the homeland and way of life; promoting American prosperity; preserving peace through strength; and advancing American influence. The conversation moves through key differences between the first and second Trump administrations, including process, tone, and the role of ideology in foreign policy, before turning to a substantive debate about the limits of multilateral institutions and Schadlow's argument in a recent Foreign Affairs essay that state-centric approaches can outperform global governance frameworks. Economy and Schadlow also assess the strategic landscape ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit, discussing where US leverage is real, where it may be overstated, and whether tariffs alone can move China's economic model. They close with a shared critique: that the United States has consistently failed to develop a coherent, assertive diplomatic and development strategy to compete with China's Belt and Road Initiative.
  

• A Grand Strategy of Consolidation: How Trump Can Revitalize American PowerA. Wess Mitchell/ Foreign Affairs

  For three and a half decades, it has maintained peace and sustained influence in all the world’s major regions without difficult tradeoffs. It continued to assume it can do so even as the country’s relative economic strength decreased, and rival military buildups eroded its superiority. As a consequence, the United States now faces a serious misalignment between its national power and the strategic objectives to which it has become accustomed.

• The Return of Power Politics to the Market: Theory and Practice of the Geoeconomic Zeitenwende  The Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik/German Institute for International and Security Affairs

  The return of power politics to the market is a defining feature of the geoeconomic Zeitenwende, as is currently being experienced in international politics. This has brought renewed attention to the long-standing conventional wisdom that economic activity can not only generate prosperity but also promote foreign and security policy objectives. The analysis and strategy of foreign, security, and economic policy require a clear conceptualization of the term “geoeconomics”. This is necessary not least to weigh the costs and benefits of geoeconomic measures in a well-founded manner, and to assess their prospects for success more realistically. The contributions to this research paper focus on the theoretical and conceptual foundations of geoeconomic thought and examine selected empirical case studies of geoeconomic action in functionally defined policy areas. In order for German geoeconomic policy to become more effective and coherent, the following approaches are recommended: first, the establishment of interagency structures for the cross-cutting task of geoeconomics; second, the expansion of communication and coordination with relevant stakeholders from the business sector and academia; and third, the strengthening of international cooperation with like-minded partners.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Fed Chair-Nominee Warsh Gets His Confirmation Hearing, The Prudential Regulators Present New Risk Guidelines, and SEC Chair Atkins Launches a New Podcast

April 20 - 24, 2026

The big event among regulators and Congress this week is Tuesday’s Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing to be the next Federal Reserve Board Chairman.  Counting votes, it is clear that Warsh will almost certainly be approved by the Banking Committee and, eventually, by the full Senate.  But that will not happen until the U.S. Justice Department drops its ongoing investigation of current Fed Chair Jay Powell 

The investigation – which has been squashed twice by federal courts – has not gone away, and it appears the Justice Department intends to keep appealing those decisions in a hopeless effort to prove Powell lied under oath before the Senate Banking Committee on June 25, 2025, regarding renovations to the Federal Reserve headquarters.   Every member of the committee has stated Powell did not perjure himself.  And now we are in a situation where not only is Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), but also Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and House Financial Services Committee Chair Representative French Hill (R-Ark) are publicly urging the investigation be dropped. 

Until the investigation goes away, Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) has announced he will block any confirmation votes for Warsh.  And we believe at least half a dozen other senators are quietly supporting Tillis on this position. 

Elsewhere on Capitol Hill this week, the House Financial Services Committee will be marking up four bills while the Senate Appropriations Committee will be holding a hearing with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the Treasury Department’s 2027 budget request.

Looking at key events from last week, we would note that the prudential regulators published revised model risk management guidance.  The revised guidance aims to clarify that model risk management should be tailored to a banking organization's size, complexity, and model risk profile.  The revised guidance also discusses considerations specific to vendor and other third-party products, including their validation. 

Over at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Chairman Mike Selig vowed to investigate the spike in insider trading in prediction markets.  He is also being pushed to investigate suspected insider trading in the oil and gas markets.

And at the SEC, Chair Paul Atkins has launched a new podcast called “Material Matters with SEC Chairman Paul Atkins.”    The podcast, according to a SEC press release, aims  to “…provide stakeholders and the investing public with exclusive interviews and insights around the agency’s policy and rulemaking agenda.”   The first guests are SEC Commissioners Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda.  Personally, we found it quite interesting and innovative to hear the regulators talking amongst themselves, unscripted and insightful

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, April 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh to serve as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

·       Wednesday, April 22, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee holds a hearing on "A Review of the President's FY2027 Budget Request for the Department of the Treasury."  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

·       Thursday, April 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold an oversight hearing on the President’s 2026 Trade Policy Agenda.  U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will testify.

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, April 21, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a markup hearing on four pieces of legislation (you can read the committee memorandum explaining what is being done HERE):

o   H.R. 425, the Repealing Big Brother Overreach Act

o   H.R. 941, the Small Lenders Exempt from New Data and Excessive Reporting (LENDER) Act

o   H.R. 8286, the Protecting Americans’ Retirement Savings from Politics Act

o   H.R. 8290, the Exchange Rate Accountability Act of 2026

·       Wednesday,  April 22, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance will hold a hearing entitled “Diversifying Risk: The Benefits of Reinsurance and Credit Risk Transfers.”

·       Wednesday, April 22, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions will hold a hearing entitled “Evaluating the Effectiveness of U.S. Sanctions Programs.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday, April 21, 2:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution Event, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Wednesday, April 22, 10:00 a.m. – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the Senate Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee at a hearing entitled "A Review of the President's FY2027 Budget Request for the Department of the Treasury." 

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       Tuesday, April 21, 6:30 p.m. – HUD Secretary Scott Turner will participate in an event at the Heritage Foundation entitled “Belief in Action: Dr. Kevin Roberts & Secretary Scott Turner on Faith, Family, and Work.”

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Tuesday, April 21, 8:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will give a speech at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, April 23, 2:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

·       Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday, April 21, 2:30 p.m. – SIFMA holds its Women’s Leadership Forum in Washington, D.C.

Tuesday, April 21 – 22 – The American Bankers Association holds its MDI Partnership Summit along with the National Bankers Association (NBA) in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, April 21, 12:00 p.m. – The he Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "Buy Now, Pay Later: Recent Developments and Implications for Mortgage Lending."

·       Tuesday, April 21, 2:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution Event, Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, April 21, 6:30 p.m. – HUD Secretary Scott Turner will participate in an event at the Heritage Foundation entitled “Belief in Action: Dr. Kevin Roberts & Secretary Scott Turner on Faith, Family, and Work.”

·       Wednesday, April 22, 9:00 a.m. – The Peterson Institute for International Economics holds a virtual event with European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone entitled “Implementing the Digital Euro Project.”

·       Thursday, April 23, 12:00 p.m. The American Enterprise Institute will host an event entitled “The Future of Student Loans: A Conversation with Under Secretary of Education Nicholas Kent.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz Rise as Ceasefire Set to Expire, EU Leaders Meet in Cyprus, and Fed Chair-Nominee Warsh Gets His Confirmation Hearing

April 19 - 26, 2026

Markets are gripped by rapidly shifting signals from Washington and Tehran over peace talks, with President Trump projecting a deal within days. However, President Trump ended the week telling reporters on Friday he expected a deal “in a day or two” and that his special envoys, Vice President J.D. Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were heading to Islamabad, Pakistan for a second round of talks. But this all abruptly was upended when the U.S. Navy fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.  This promptly led to Iranian threats to strike back and denials they were going to send a negotiating team to Pakistan.  This is an extraordinarily fast-moving situation as the cease-fire is scheduled to end two days from now.  The next steps all depend on whether Iran sends a delegation to Islamabad or not.

Meanwhile, EU leaders meet in Cyprus this week in what could be a pivotal session amid rising geopolitical crises, especially the Iran situation.  The “informal” agenda includes discussing the Iranian situation, the ongoing war in Ukraine (Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to address the group), as well as progress of the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF).  The MFF is a nearly €2 trillion budget proposal that aims to, according to the EU, “align resources with shared priorities (from competitiveness and innovation to defense, cohesion and external action) under a modernized, flexible and transparent structure.”

But the Iran crisis will dominate the discussions as energy prices spike in Europe.  EU leaders are likely to push emergency energy measures.  We would also note this will be the last EU meeting for outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán who lost power last week after 16 years in power.

In Washington, the main event is the Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chair-nominee Kevin Warsh. Despite likely approval, the process could be stalled by the ongoing Justice Department investigation of current Chair Jay Powell and senators planned opposition until it concludes.  As we have written in client notes, this could delay Warsh’s confirmation for months, directly impacting upcoming FOMC meetings in June and July.

Beyond Warsh’s confirmation, global markets are starting to focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting April 28–29, the European Central Bank interest rate meeting on April 29, and the Bank of England interest rate meeting on April 30. 

This week’s global flash April PMIs are highly anticipated to gauge the economic impact of the Iran War. In the U.S., March existing home sales (Monday), April PPI and Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), March retail sales (Tuesday), and the key March PCE Index (Friday) are headline releases; Canada reports March CPI on Monday.

In Europe, markets will focus on Eurozone Consumer Confidence (Wednesday), UK labor data (Tuesday), and March inflation (Wednesday), plus major German and French economic surveys released throughout the week.

In Asia, big events include Japan’s March CPI (Friday), Taiwan’s export orders (Tuesday), and South Korea’s Consumer Sentiment (Thursday).

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       White House Special Envoys Stev Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to travel to Pakistan for talks with Iran (TBD).  On Tuesday, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to join them in the talks (Again, TBD).

·       The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – was set to expire.  Congress passed a short-term extension last week as they continue to battle out how to get a final agreement hammered out.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will make his first visits as leader to India and Vietnam through Friday. Lee, who is expected to be joined by a business delegation, will meet with his counterparts for talks, which are likely to focus on energy and supply chain cooperation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

·       Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

·       Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 20, 2026

Global

·       The UN’s 2026 ECOSOC Forum on Financing for Development begins New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       An Indian delegation will be in Washington for trade talks with the U.S.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein interviews Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf at the Economic Club of Washington.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (March)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations.

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (February)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (March)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Alaska Airlines, Wintrust

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines and the U.S. are set to commence their annual weekslong war games. Japan will make its debut as an active participant in the exercises, after Tokyo and Manila's reciprocal access agreement came into effect last year.

·       Mongolian President Khurelsuh Ukhnaa will visit Kazakhstan through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (April)/ FDI (YTD) (March)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (February)

·       India Infrastructure Output (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to update parliament on the vetting failure of former British ambassador to Washington Lord Peter Mandelson and his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give the keynote at the annual reception of Association of German Banks on the occasion of their 75th anniversary in Berlin, Germany.

·       Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen speaks at a conference in Espoo, Finland.

·       Germany PPI (March)

·       Greece Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Italy Construction Output (February)

·       Euro Area Construction Output (February)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (March)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       EARNINGS: M&C Saatchi

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Israel, Yom Hazikaron, or Memorial Day, a commemoration for fallen soldiers and victims of militant attacks, begins.

·       Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mozambican President Daniel Chapo will visit China through April 22nd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (February & March)

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Global

·       The US-Iran two-week ceasefire is set to expire at midnight.

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on Colombia, followed by consultations.

·       UN Climate Week event kicks off in the coastal city of Yeosu, running until Saturday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. Senate Banking Committee holds hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be next chair of the Federal Reserve.

·       The Bahamas will host the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP4) on Environmental Affairs of Latin America and the Caribbean in Nassau.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution Event, Washington, D.C.

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (March)/ Redbook (April/18)/ Business Inventories (February)/ Pending Home Sales (March)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/17)

·       Colombia Imports (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (March)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (March)

·       EARNINGS: United Airlines, 3M, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth, Danaher, Quest Diagnostics, Halliburton, CapitalOne, Interactive Brokers, Chubb, Annaly, RTX, Northrup Grumman

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th NPC Standing Committee (NPCSC) is expected to convene its 22nd session in late April. The Council of Chairpersons was expected to meet in mid-April to set the agenda and dates. The session is expected to review a draft revision to the Bid Invitation and Bidding Law and draft revision to the Water Law, with additional bills also possible. While largely legislative rather than headline-grabbing, this is a key mechanism through which CCP policy priorities are formalized into law.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q1/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q1/ Inflation Rate Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/21)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers are expected to unveil the fourth element of its security guarantees for Ukraine at this session, covering Defence reform, cyber and hybrid measures, demining, and arms control.  The Council will also consider unblocking a €90 billion loan for Ukraine for 2026–2027 and discuss the 20th package of sanctions against Russia.  Additional ministers will be discussing the crisis with Iran, and its impact on the broader region and Europe, the South Caucasus (including Georgia), and Sudan, with discussion expected on tightening pressure on Russia across all dimensions. 

·       There will be an informal video conference of EU Transport Ministers. They are expected to discuss the Iranian situation and its impact on the EU transport sector.

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte travels to Ankara, Turkey for meetings with President Tayyip Erdoğan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan, and Minister of National Defense General Yaşar Gûler.

·       The UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee has invited Sir Olly Robbins, the top Foreign Office civil servant who was sacked last week, to give evidence at its meeting today.  Robbins was the senior official who signed off on Peter Mandelson’s background check, clearing him to be named UK Ambassador to the United States – and covering up his extensive involvement with Jeffrey Epstein.

·       In the UK, the RMT union is due to begin the first of two 24-hour strikes on Tube lines over four-day working week proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give remarks followed by Q&A at an event organized by La Razón in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at the International Economics Symposium in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher gives opening remarks at a conference on Ukraine in Vienna, Austria.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge participates in a panel about decision-making psychology in Stockholm, Sweden.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Average Earnings incl. & excl. Bonus/ Claimant Count Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (March)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (March)/ Employment Growth (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (February)

·       Slovenia PPI (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (April)/ ZEW Current Conditions (April)

·       EARNINGS: Associated British Foods, British Land, Beiersdorf, Jupiter Fund Management, Thales, WR Berkley, Rio Tinto

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Pope Leo XIV continues his African tour with a visit to Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Council will hold a briefing on the Middle East (Syria).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (April/17)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (April/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/17)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (April/17)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (March)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (February)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, IBM, Boeing, AT&T, Boston Scientific, Philip Morris, CME Group, SCX, Southwest Airlines, Texas Instruments, Moody’s, Raymond James

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Criminal Court is set to release its decision on whether the case of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte falls within its jurisdiction, after his defense team filed an appeal. Duterte is currently in detention in the Netherlands on charges related to crimes against humanity for his role in masterminding a bloody campaign against the illegal drug trade in his country.

·       The TSMC 2026 Technology Symposium takes place in Santa Clara, California.  The company will provide updates on its latest technological progress and breakthroughs, with a heavy focus on artificial intelligence. Of particular interest will be the Taiwanese chip titan's comments on the state of cutting-edge chip production processes, including 3-nanometer, 2-nm, A16, A14 and beyond.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (March)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (March)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (April)/ Loan Growth (March)

·       India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of states through April 24 in Leftkosia, Cyprus.  Leaders will first discuss the situation in Iran and how the EU can best address the war and its impact.  They will also address the challenging geopolitical environment and provide political guidance on the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028–2034.  Key elements include:

• Dinner discussions on April 23 beginning with a briefing from President Zelenskyy on Russia's ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. 

• Discussion of the conflict in Iran and the Middle East, including Europe's contribution to de-escalation, freedom of navigation, and the effects of high fossil fuel prices on European citizens and companies. 

• A working session on the morning of April 24 focused on the next MFF, including discussions on New Own Resources and the EU budget's contribution to the competitiveness agenda. 

• An informal working lunch with leaders from the Middle East region to discuss shared challenges and opportunities for cooperation.

·       The Delphi Economic Forum XI begins in Delphi, Greece. Speakers include president of the European Council António Costa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will take part in a panel in honor of Nick Stern" organized by London School of Economics and Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London, UK.  IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also is scheduled to speak.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will participate in a conversation "Banking reform in the EU – How should the EU balance banking reform, risk and competitiveness?" organized by Bruegel in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Chief Economist Philip R. Lane will give the keynote speech at a high-level ESRB workshop on European safe assets in Frankfurt, Germany.  Later he will participate in a panel discussion at Pre-presidency Irish Financial Issues Conference organized by the Consulate General of Ireland, CFS at Goethe University, Hertie School Jacques Delors Centre and Frankfurt Chamber of Industry and Commerce in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will participate in a conversation with Nicolas Véron for Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual series and podcast "What now, Europe?".

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a panel discussion at EU finance conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is part of an FT fireside chat about private credit in London, England.

·       Riksbank First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge speaks at the launch of the Gender Balance Index 2026, organized by OMFIF.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI Input & Output (March)/ Retail Price Index (March)

·       Euro Area Government Budget to GDP 2025/ Government Debt to GDP 2025/ Consumer Confidence Flash (April)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (April)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending & Borrowing Rate (April)

·       Poland Business Confidence (April)

·       Russia Industrial Production (March)/ PPI (March)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: ABB, Aberdeen, Danone, L’Oreal, Nordea Bank

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

Thursday, April 23, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it will hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       G& Environmental Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro will meet with Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez in the Venezuelan city of Maracaibo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (March)/ PPI (March)/ Raw Materials Prices (March)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (March)/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (April)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/22)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Paraguay PPI (March)

·       Warner Bros Discovery holds a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Paramount Skydance for $31 a share. If approved, the deal is expected to close in the third quarter of this year.

·       EARNINGS: Nokia, Intel, Newmont, Dow, Blackstone, American Express, Huntington Bank, American Airlines, Lockheed Martin, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Verisign, Comcast, Keurig Dr Pepper, Freeport-McMoRan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Two of India's politically crucial states -- West Bengal and Tamil Nadu -- hold elections at a time when the country is grappling with a cooking gas shortage driven by supply chain disruptions owing to the Middle East conflict, an issue that is expected to weigh on voters' minds. While Tamil Nadu in India's south is going to the polls in a single stage, West Bengal in the country's east will hold its second and final phase on April 29.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Adv Q1

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/18)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (March)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (March)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (March)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of the April 29-30 rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on central-bank independence in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Anna Seim speaks in Umea, Sweden.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (March)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (March)/ S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)/ CBI Business Optimism Index Q2/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (April)

·       France S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Germany S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Euro Area S&P Global Composite/ Manufacturing/ Services PMI Flash (April)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Wage Tracker Q1

·       EARNINGS: BP, Dassault Systémes, Heineken, London Stock Exchange Group, Nokia, Orang, Renault, Sainsbury’s, Sanofi, WHSmith, Nestlé

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (February)

Friday, April 24, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels will take place in Santa Marta, Colombia, through April 29th.

·       Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson speaks at the Empire Club of Canada.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Foreign Direct Investment (March)

·       Mexico Economic Activity (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Canada Retail Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Chile PPI (March)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (March)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/24)

·       Canada Budget Balance (February)

·       EARNINGS: Proctor & Gamble, Schlumberger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Auto China Show, one of the world's largest auto shows, begins in Beijing.  The event will spotlight China's emergence as a major EV player at a time when the Iran war has made alternatives to pricey gasoline more attractive. Thousands of exhibitors and visitors will descend on the venue for 10 days. Chinese EV makers will be looking to set themselves apart with new innovations, aiming to leave behind a bruising domestic price war and ramp up exports.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (March)

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q1

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Index (February)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q1/ Consumer Confidence Q1

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron travels to Greece for talks Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis in Athens, Greece.

·       Russian Foreign Ministry holds its quarterly briefing in Moscow, Russia.

·       Today is St. George’s Day celebrations, commemorating England’s patron saint.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks at the bank’s Annual General Meeting in Bern, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (March)

·       France Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Spain PPI (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (April)/ Ifo Current Conditions (April)/ Ifo Expectations (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/17)

·       EARNINGS: Electrolux, Kuehn+Nagle, Mondi, Telia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, April 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The White House Correspondents Dinner will take place in Washington, D.C.  President Trump is scheduled to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Anzac Day, commemorating the first major military action Australia and New Zealand took in World War I. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Freedom Day in Portugal, commemorating the end of political dictatorship.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 26, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Center for China & Globalization holds the 12th China Global Think Tank Innovation Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

• April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.

• April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.

• April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.

• April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.

• May 3 – 6 – The Milken Institute Global Conference is held in Beverly Hills, California.

• May 10 – Lebanon is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections.

• May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

• May 31 – Colombia holds presidential elections.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Assessing The Iran War’s Global Economic Shocks, The Myths and Realities of Petrodollars, The Fog of AI War, and How the U.S. Post Office is About to Collapse

April 17 - 19, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

More On the Impact of the Iran War

• How the War in the Middle East Is Affecting Energy, Trade, and Finance   International Monetary Fund

  According to the IMF, “Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth. A short conflict might send oil and gas prices soaring before markets adjust, while a long one could keep energy expensive and strain countries that rely on imports. Or the world may settle somewhere in between—tensions linger, energy stays costly, and inflation proves hard to tame—with ongoing uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Much depends on how long the conflict lasts, how far it spreads, and how much damage it inflicts on infrastructure and supply chains.”

• "Look Through" the Hormuz Shock if You Want.  U.S. Inflation is Still Running Hot   Matt Klein/The Overshoot

  Core goods inflation was running ~1 percentage point above pre-pandemic levels in both 2023 and 2024, with price declines slowing from mid-2024 onward — before tariffs became a primary factor. The question for policymakers is what this “one-time thing”, as Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell has called it, will do to the underlying trend rate of inflation.

• Petrodollars.  Myths and Reality   Brad Setser Council on Foreign Relations

  The Iran War has brought renewed focus to the role of Petrodollars.  The foundation of the dollar’s global role, it is sometimes argued, rests on the willingness of the Gulf countries (but not Russia) to price their oil in dollars.  But it was never quite clear why oil pricing mattered quite as much as some claim. To be sure, there are network effects around dollar pricing. But it isn’t hard to pay for oil in a global currency like the euro, even if the underlying contract is priced in dollars. There is a deep and liquid market for converting euros into dollars, and a firm aiming to lock in the euro price of oil 3 months forward can buy oil forward in dollars and dollars forward with euros, thereby locking in a euro price. Dollar settlement is a problem for countries that are sanctioned by the U.S. and the EU and for frontier economies that cannot settle their oil bill in local currency, but it hasn’t required most European oil importers to build up big stocks of dollar reserves just to pay for oil. What has mattered at times is how the big oil exporters manage their surplus funds when there is a surge in the global price of oil.

• Three Scenarios for the Gulf States After the Iran War     Carnegie Emissary

  Amid a tenuous U.S.-Iran ceasefire, Arab Gulf monarchies are aiming to project strength. “We prevailed through an epic national defense . . . in the face of treacherous aggression,” Emirati diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash wrote on X. Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat emphasized the kingdom’s “intensive political consultations” with regional countries as leading to the present calm.  Yet member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) still face immense challenges in shoring up their security. A substantial U.S. and Israeli air campaign was unable to eliminate Iran’s will or capability to exert power in the Gulf, with Iran turning historically secure neighbor states into war zones overnight. Neither the United States nor any other actor put forward a decisive solution for the de facto Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the Islamic Republic retains its highly enriched uranium and its nuclear program. And the GCC has no seat at the table, despite its entreaties, for negotiations that will shape the bloc’s economic and security environment for years to come.  Where do the Gulf states go from here? We offer three scenarios—a hopeful one, a realistic one, and a cautionary one—that illustrate both potential areas of cooperation and the risks of greater fragmentation.

• What the Iran War Means for the “Axis of Resistance”     Hamidreza Azizi/Foreign Affairs

  The war is heightening the salience of Shiite identity across multiple arenas at once and, in doing so, reshaping how political and military actors assess both their interests and their risks. Groups that might otherwise have remained on the sidelines are becoming more likely to get involved in the strife, and those already fighting face growing pressure to escalate. The consequence is a feedback loop: actions driven by fears of marginalization provoke responses that alarm more and more people, expanding the social base for Shiite mobilization. The “axis of resistance,” Iran’s network of nonstate allies and proxies across the region, has endured numerous setbacks since 2023. But ongoing U.S. and Israeli military actions may lead to its reconstitution, not through the orchestration of Tehran but rather as a result of the altogether more organic impetus of an embattled Shiite identity.

Europe

• A Transatlantic Economic Reset     Penny Nass/German Marshall Fund

  The fixation on tariffs and trade skirmishes obscures a more consequential reality, one in which the EU-US relationship is being shaped by a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical environment that tests political trust and strategic coordination. It also overshadows the fact that the transatlantic relationship is not primarily a trade relationship but the world’s largest and most strategically significant investment partnership.  Three areas demand urgent join action: Critical minerals, the Digital Stack, and Infrastructure.

• The Fog of AI War      Raluca Csernatoni/Carnegie Strategic Europe

  An irreducible uncertainty haunts every battlefield: the fog of war. And for two centuries, military innovation has promised to lift that fog.  Artificial Intelligence (AI) was supposed to be the technology that finally did so, replacing human guesswork with machine precision and processing oceans of data at speeds that would render uncertainty obsolete.  But acknowledging the advantages is not the same as ignoring what happens when speed, attrition, and scale become organizing principles of warfare. U.S. President Donald Trump's dispute with Anthropic, which insisted that its models should not be used without guardrails against fully autonomous weapons and mass domestic surveillance, ended with the Pentagon designating the company a supply chain risk.  The message from the world’s largest military power is that normative constraints on military AI are obstacles to innovation rather than preconditions for lawful use.  Europe can play a key role in all of this.

• Assessing the damage: What the Iran war really means for Europe’s defense   European Union Institute for Security Studies

  Regardless of whether the ceasefire between the US and Iran holds, the war in the Middle East complicates European rearmament and support for Ukraine, while also further eroding confidence in the United States as a reliable guarantor of Europe's defense. To put their defense ramp-up on a firmer footing, Europeans should reduce exposure to US political volatility, industrial bottlenecks, and the diversion of defense equipment during wartime.

Geoeconomics, Technology, and Trade

• A Tax Revolt Is Under Way In America    The Economist

  Democrats and Republicans alike think they are overtaxed, as do both rich and poor. YouGov’s polling finds that around 60% of Americans at every income level think they are taxed too much—despite being taxed at very different rates. Statehouses are hearing this, too. Many, citing strong economic growth, have cut taxes in recent years. Enthusiasm is building to go further and faster, leaving some observers wary. “Most have done so responsibly thus far,” says Jared Walczak of the Tax Foundation, a think-tank. “But they now risk overreaching and making reductions they cannot afford.” A wave of localities is pushing through property-tax exemptions for retirees. Florida is flirting with abolishing non-school property taxes altogether. Ohio has a possible ballot initiative to scrap them in all forms.

• Evaluating the Impact of Tariffs on US Agriculture a Year After Liberation Day   Joseph Glauber/American Enterprise Institute

  In April 2025, the Trump administration levied 10 percent tariffs on virtually all countries and higher “reciprocal” tariffs on certain countries, ushering in a new and uncertain tariff architecture that saw significant changes, exemptions, and additional actions over the following year. The tariffs modestly reduced overall US agricultural and food imports, but with significant heterogeneity by exporting country and product category. The tariffs had mixed effects on US agricultural exports, with exports to China and Canada falling partly because of retaliatory tariffs and consumer reactions, respectively. After imposing the tariffs, the United States negotiated several bilateral trade deals with other countries. However, given the lack of product-specific details, China’s continued retaliatory measures, and the Supreme Court’s decision striking down most of the US tariffs, it is unclear whether these deals will actually improve agricultural market access for US exporters.

• Did the OBBB Affect Firms' Plans for 2026?    Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

  Around 20 percent of respondent firms in the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) survey told us that they consider the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) in their decision-making and short-term planning. The remaining firms said they did not factor in the OBBB when planning for outcomes such as capital expenditures, employment, and sales revenue forecasts. These results may be a reflection of the fact that many of the provisions of the law were already in place and with the passage of OBBB are now extended or made permanent (such as provisions of the 100 percent bonus depreciation and the 20 percent deduction for qualified business income). Our findings suggest that a broad-based and sizeable future surge in business activity stemming from the policy change may not be likely.

• Congress Seeks Solution for Averting USPS Fiscal Collapse   Kevin Kosar/Washington Examiner

  Last month, U.S. Postmaster General David Steiner added another major item to Congress’s already long to-do list: rescuing the Post Office. “The Postal Service is at a critical juncture. At our current rate, we’ll be out of money in less than 12 months.”  That may not sound like a big deal. Government agencies run out of money each year, and every January and February, they go hat-in-hand to Congress and ask for funding. Usually, they get it, and when Congress fails to deliver the dollars, agencies close for a bit or their staff work without pay until legislators enact a spending law.  The U.S. Postal Service is different. USPS is one of 17 government corporations that pay for themselves by earning revenue through the sales of goods and services. The agency sells around $80 billion in postage each year, mostly to large companies offering credit cards (e.g., Capital One) or selling goods (e.g., Walmart). When the Post Office runs out of cash in the first half of 2026, Steiner explained, “the Postal Service would be unable to deliver the mail.”