Russia’s Shrunken Victory Parade and The Rapidly Disappearing Putin

May 5, 2026

The Cheshire Cat of Russia: We will see this coming Saturday, the 81st Victory Day Parade in Moscow, commemorating Russia's victory over Nazi Germany. But it is going to be a very different event as President Vladimir Putin has ordered that no tanks, armored vehicles, missile systems, or large formations of soldiers be a part of it. A massive scale back in size and scale. In its place will be air shows and large video feeds supposedly from the Russian frontlines in Ukraine.

Why the big change? Simply out of fear of the increasingly effective rise of the Ukrainian drone. Ukrainian drones breached Russian air defenses on Monday, only a few miles from the Kremlin. Moreover, the Russian Army is deploying an extensive anti-drone netting system over most of Red Square and the parade route.

Ukraine drones now have a range capability of more than 1,000 miles inside Russia, destroying military-industrial facilities, oil refiners, and other energy infrastructure targets. These strikes have hit as far as the Ural Mountains and the Perm region.

For the Russian people, Putin's Ukraine War is now increasingly coming home to them, driving up gasoline prices and increasingly worrying the general population about what comes next.

Today (5 May 2026), the Financial Times published an interesting piece about how Putin is increasingly hunkered down, noting that his public appearances have dramatically decreased over the last three years out of fear of assassination. But that begs a very important question: Is he simply fearful of being taken out by Ukrainians or by increasingly unhappy Russians, or both? One thing is clear: Putin is acting like a man who is increasingly scared and desperately trying to hold onto control. Where that leads Russia, and the implications for the future trajectory of the Ukraine War, need to be thought through and discussed much more than they are now.