Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 4/13/26 Francis Kelly 4/13/26

The Global Week Ahead

Moving Back to War in Iran, The World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings Begin, Israel and Lebanon To Hold Direct Talks, Implications of Hungary’s Election Earthquake, Canadian PM Carney Could Get a Parliamentary Majority, and Countless Central Bank Speeches This Week

April 12 - 19, 2026

It will be another tense week globally following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations this past Friday. While the ceasefire technically holds until April 21st, President Trump has ordered a blockade of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and hostilities could erupt at any time. Oil prices have again spiked above $103 a barrel, and markets are bracing for new economic shocks.

The big questions we have are: 1) What happens if Chinese or Russian naval ships arrive to escort their commercial ships around the US naval ships, 2) What happens if any ships try to slip by the blockade – will the US Navy seize them or shell them?, and 3) Will the blockade trigger the Houthi’s in Yemen to engage in new attacks on the US Naval ships?

We would also note Israeli and Lebanese diplomats will be meeting in Washington on Monday on a potential ceasefire following weeks of intense Israeli attacks on Hezbollah forces. But most observers are not hopeful for a breakthrough, as Israel will not agree unless Hezbollah is completely expelled from Lebanon.

As the Iran War looms, the World Bank/IMF Spring meetings begin today, with finance ministers and central bank governors convening for six days. The IMF will release its latest World Economic Outlook, and markets await any changes to forecasts.

On the sidelines, numerous speeches and panels will feature key central bankers like European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.

Elsewhere, in European capitals this week, EU leaders will be analyzing the impact of Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party’s landslide win over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz Party after 16 years in power. will likely prove to help solidify and accelerate EU efforts for greater cohesion. The most obvious direct consequence is the release of sizeable EU financial and military aid to Ukraine, which had been blocked by Orbán.

Turning to North America, Canada holds elections in three legislative districts this week. Polls suggest Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party is likely to secure at least two victories, potentially giving Carney a parliamentary majority and greater scope to align Canada’s policies more closely with Europe, both militarily and economically.

Aside from the World Bank and IMF meetings, markets will focus on the US PPI report on Tuesday, the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, and industrial production on Thursday.

In Europe, the European Central Bank’s March meeting account and the UK’s February GDP numbers will be released on Tuesday.

In Asia, the major reports of the week are China’s Q1 GDP, released on Tuesday, and the March economic data, published on Thursday.

Finally, we would note that earnings season is kicking off this week. We expect a chorus of concerns from major companies about the economic impact of the Iran War and its potential impact on businesses across the board.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, April 12, 2026

Global

· Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel this week to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

· Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. There are 35 candidates running for president, and it is almost assuredly going to lead to a run-off election. Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez will visit China through April 15th. resident Xi Jinping will meet with Sánchez, and Premier Li Qiang and NPC Standing Committee Chairman Zhao Leji will hold separate talks and meetings with him. This is Sánchez's fourth trip to China in four years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's corruption trial resumes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, April 13, 2026

Global

· The World Bank/International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings begin in Washington, D.C. and run through April 18th.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (EU).

· The OPEC monthly oil market report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate and House of Representatives return to work after a two-week break. They will again try to find a deal on TSA paychecks and President Trump’s request for additional funding for the US military.

· The US House of Representatives potentially will consider expulsion votes or other disciplinary votes against four members this week: Representatives Sheila Chefilus-McCormick (D-FL), Cory Mills (R-FL), Tony Gonzales (R-TX), and Eric Swalwell (D-CA).

· President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump will host King Willem-Alexander and Queen Máxima of the Netherlands at the White House and then host a state dinner for them in the evening.

· Canada will hold three byelections that could result in a parliamentary majority for the ruling Liberal Party.

· Santiago, Chile hosts the Latin America Energy Summit through April 16th. The summit brings together regional energy companies, engineering firms, infrastructure project developers, construction companies, investors, and government officials to discuss opportunities in Latin America's evolving energy industry. The Summit takes place as Santiago also hosts the World Lithium Conference and the World Copper Conference.

· The Semafor World Economy Conference begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through April 17. More than 450 CEOs, US cabinet members, and foreign leaders will attend and speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States, Washington, D.C.

· Canada Building Permits (February)

· USA Existing Home Sales (March)/ Fed Miran Speech

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (March)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Peru Balance of Trade (February)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: Goldman Sachs, FirstBank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the 101st Trust Companies Conference.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser participates in a fireside chat at the Money Marketeers of New York University

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (March)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (February)

· India Inflation Rate (March)

· China New Yuan Loans (March)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (March)/ Total Social Financing (March)

· Kazakhstan GDP (March)

· Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Seoul.

· French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot will host Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide in Paris.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in the IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C. this week.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the 4th ''Wake Up, Spain" symposium organized by El Español, Invertia, and D+I (Disruptores e Innovadores) in Madrid, Spain.

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech at the PSE-BdF Conference on International Macroeconomics in Historical Perspective in Paris, France.

· Hungary Construction Output (February)

· Slovakia Construction Output (February)

· Turkey Current Account (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Poland Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Russia Balance of Trade (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Leo XIV will visit Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea through April 23rd.

· The Africa Tourism Investment Conference begins in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote on Libya sanctions. Afterwards, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· The IMF publishes its World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report.

· The International Energy Administration releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks at a Turning Point USA tour stop in Georgia.

· Finnish President Alexander Stubb will travel to Canada for meetings with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks at the Strengthening America's Economy through Rural Investment: A Working Forum, Washington, D.C.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a panel before the Semafor World Economy 2026 conference in Washington, D.C.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ PPI (March)/ Redbook (April/11)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/10)

· Brazil Business Confidence (April)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (February)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: JP Morgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Albertsons, Johnson & Johnson, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam President To Lam travels to China on the invitation of President Xi Jinping. This marks Lam's first state visit since he took the rare step of holding two of Hanoi's most powerful posts and, a week prior, became president.

· The Philippines' House of Representative’s Justice Committee resumes deliberations on the merits of the impeachment complaints lodged against Vice President Sara Duterte. Her team continues to question the proceedings, which began in February after a one-year Supreme Court prohibition.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (April)/ NAB Business Confidence (March)

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (February)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

· India WPI Food Index (March)/ WPI Fuel (March)/ WPI Inflation (March)/ WPI Manufacturing (March)

· EARNINGS: Toho, J Front Retailing

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) Alexus Grnikevich in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a fireside chat at the Bretton Woods Committee’s Spring Summit 2026 in Washington, DC.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane gives a lecture at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia. Later, he participates in the Macro/International Finance Lunch Roundtable at the University.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded conversation at the 25th Forum Confcommercio in Rome, Italy.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat with Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Board Alan Taylor at Columbia University in New York.

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene takes part in a fireside chat during the IMF-World Bank week at the Atlantic Council in Washington, D.C.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March)

· Ireland Construction PMI (March)

· Germany Wholesale Prices (March)

· Romania Inflation Rate (March)

· Spain Inflation Rate (March)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Serbia Inflation Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: BMW, Kering, Publicis

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel and Lebanon will hold direct negotiations in Washington, D.C. The Israeli delegation will be led by Yechiel Leiter, Israel’s ambassador to the US, although Ron Dermer, an adviser to Netanyahu, is expected to play a prominent role behind the scenes. U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa is due to lead the effort on behalf of the Trump administration.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (March)/ Inflation Expectations (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (February)/ Mining Production (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (February)/ SACCI Business Confidence (March)

Wednesday, April 15, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Great Lakes region. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on UN Peacekeeping operations.

· The IMF publishes its fiscal monitor.

· IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing .

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on Consumer Compliance Supervision and Regulation at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition (NCRC) Just Economy Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision ice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks on bank regulation at the Institute of International Finance Global Outlook Forum, Washington, D.C.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (April)/ Import Prices (March)/ Export Prices (March)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (April)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (April/10)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ Foreign Bond Investment (February)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (February)

· Brazil Retail Sales (February)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (February)/ Wholesale Sales (February)

· El Salvador PPI (March)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (February)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Progressive, PNC, M&T Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Canton Fair, one of China’s largest trade shows, opens. There will be exhibitors touting everything from vehicles and electronics to furniture and toys. This spring's expo, which runs until early May, comes as companies in China and around the world grapple with supply chain disruptions from the Iran war.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import Prices (March)/ Export Prices (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Japan Machinery Orders (February)

· India Unemployment Rate (March)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (February)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at The Economic Magic of Equal Opportunity for Women Conference in Washington, DC

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion entitled “Deglobalization and Fragmentation: Mid-Term Challenges for Central Banks” at the 2026 IIF Global Outlook Forum “Deciphering Risks, Defining Opportunities” in Washington,

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote address at the"20th Annual Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States" organized by The Program on International Financial Systems (PIFS) and Harvard Law School in Washington, DC.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC,

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at Semafor World Economy and separately at an Atlantic Council event in Washington, DC.

· Euro Area Industrial Production (February)

· Romania Industrial Production (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· France Inflation Rate (March)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)

· Poland Inflation Rate (March)

· Turkey Budget Balance (March)

· Greece Inflation Rate (March)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (February)/ Residential Property Prices (February)

· Sebia Building Permits (February)

· EARNINGS: Hermes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (March)/ Wholesale Prices (March)

· Israel Business Confidence (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Jordan Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, April 16, 2026

Global

· G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Washington, DC.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran participates in a conversation at the Washington Economic Festival: Global Macro Sessions, Washington, D.C.

New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote speech before the FHLBNY 2026 Member Symposium organized by the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York.

· Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (February)

· USA Continuing Jobless Claims (April/04)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (April)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (April)/ Philly Fed Employment (April)/ Philly Fed New Orders (April)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (April)/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April)I/10/ Fed Miran Speech/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/16)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (March)

· EARNINGS: Netflix, Charles Schwab, PepsiCo, BNY, Travelers, Citizens Financial Corp., Abbott, Alcoa, Cohen & Steers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (April)/ Foreign Bond Investment (April/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/11)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full Time Employment Chg. (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Part Time Employment Chg. (March)/ Participation Rate (March)

· China House Price Index (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (February)

· Sri Lanka PPI (February)

· EARNINGS: TSMC, Wipro, Infosys

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers in Lefkosia, Cyprus through April 17th.

· In the UK, the Covid-19 Inquiry report on vaccines and therapeutics will be published.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a panel at the Washington Economic Festival: Global Macro Sessions organized by Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee in Washington, DC. Later, he participates in an IMF Spring Meetings panel on "Keeping Macroeconomic Frameworks Fit for Purpose in a Shock-Prone World" in Washington, DC.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion at the New Frontiers in Banking and Capital Markets Conference in Milan, Italy

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Program on International Financial Systems and Harvard Law School, 20th Annual Symposium ‘building the financial system of the 21st century: an agenda for Europe and the United States’, Washington DC.

· European Central Bank Governing Council members Martin Kocher and Dimitar Radev speak at an Atlantic Council event in Washington, D.C.

· Euro Area CPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Great Britain Balance of Trade (February)/ Construction Output (February)/ GDP (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (March)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (March)/ SNB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Italy Inflation Rate (March)

· Serbia Current Account (February)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/10)/ Auto Production (March)/ Auto Sales (March)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (March)

· Belarus Industrial Production (March)

· EARNINGS: Bosch, Tesco, Icade, Viscofan, Pernod Ricard

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, April 17, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks about the economic outlook at the Auburn University Department of Economics David Kaserman Memorial Lecture, Auburn, Alabama.

· USA Fed Balance Sheet (April/15)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/17

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (April)/ Housing Starts (March)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (February)

· EARNINGS: Regions, Fifth Third Bank, Ally, Truist, Ericsson, State Street, Marsh & McLennan

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (March)/ Food Inflation (March)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (March)/ Non-Oil Exports (March)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· India Bank Loan Growth (March/31)/ Deposit Growth (March/31)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (March)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (March)/ Services PMI (March)

· EARNINGS: HDFC, ICICI

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will chair the next meeting of the CIS Council of Foreign Ministers in Moscow, with Turkmenistan holding the CIS chairmanship for 2026. The ministers will exchange views on international and regional issues and discuss priority areas of CIS cooperation, including in the context of the organization's 35th anniversary. Decisions are expected on strengthening foreign policy coordination, expanding law enforcement cooperation, and granting CIS basic organization status to two Russian educational institutions.

· Following the CIS meeting, Foreign Minister Lavrov will travel to Antalya, Turkey to participate in the Fifth Antalya Diplomatic Forum at the invitation of Turkey's Foreign Minister. The forum is a high-profile multilateral gathering with broad attendance from Global South and NATO-adjacent states — exactly the audience Russia wants to address on Ukraine, Iran, and sanctions.

· Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez hosts Brazilian President Lula in Barcelona.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in "In conversation with Claudia Buch," organized by the Institute of International Finance in Washington, DC.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the Barclays breakfast roundtable in Washington, D.C.

· Euro Area Current Account (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Hungary Gross Wage (February)

· Italy Balance of Trade (February)/ Current Account (February)

· Slovakia Current Account (February)

· Greece Balance of Trade (February)

· Belarus GDP (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Syria, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ M3 Money Supply (March)

Saturday, April 18, 2026

Global

· The World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) Section 701 – which authorizes warrantless surveillance of non-US persons – expires.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections.

· Brazilian President Lula meets with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Hanover, Germany.

· Today is the 75th anniversary of the Treaty of Paris establishing the European Coal and Steel Community, signed by six European states including France, West Germany, and Italy, marking the first step in European economic integration and laying the foundations for what would later become the EU.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

Week of April 20 (To be confirmed – hearing has been rescheduled from April 9th) – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely that the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members have vowed to hold up the vote until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.
April 23 – The European Central Bank’s non-monetary policy meeting.
April 27 – The Bank of Japan meets to consider interest rates.
April 28/29 – the Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets to consider interest rates.
April 29 – The European Central Bank meets to consider interest rates.
April 30 – The Bank of England meets to consider interest rates.
May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

Francis Kelly 4/10/26 Francis Kelly 4/10/26

The Morning Dispatch: “Trump’s Animus Against Nato Could Lead to Geopolitical Disaster”

By Franklin C Miller and Eric S. Edelman

April 7, 2026

My colleague at the Scowcroft Group (where I serve as a Senior Advisor), Frank Miller, along with Eric Edelman, wrote this important assessment. I thought it was important to share with our followers.

Miller served for three decades as a senior nuclear policy and arms control official in the Pentagon and on the National Security Council staff. He is a principal at the Scowcroft Group. Edelman was undersecretary of defense for policy (2005-2009) and has served as the co-chair for the congressionally mandated Commissions to review the National Defense Strategy in 2018 and 2024.

______________________________

Donald Trump does not understand NATO. Neither does he understand alliances, let alone alliance leadership. Nevertheless, based on animosities and grievances he has harbored in his ignorance for multiple decades, he appears disposed to allow the most successful political-military alliance in modern history to be destroyed. Vladimir Putin could not be happier, as this would represent one of his long-sought vengeful goals in retaliation for the Soviet Union's breakup. That would be a true tragedy for Europe and, indeed, for the United States—and it is even more the case because Trump's animus is based on a series of assumptions that do not bear scrutiny.

In brief, Trump appears to believe:

Member states of NATO have not paid their "bills" or "dues" or "NATO fees," reflecting an imperfect, to say the least, understanding of how NATO functions as an alliance and an organization.
NATO must follow America's lead even when not consulted about military action.
NATO is a "one-way street—we wil protect them, but they wil do nothing for us."
Joining in the military operations against Iran and clearing the Strait of Hormuz to end Iran's chokehold on Gulf energy supplies have become a "loyalty audit" of the alliance.

Al of the above are palpably false.

NATO does not have "member dues." Each individual nation both submits funds to the alliance's common activities and also contributes to the common defense by maintaining its own military forces. It is certainly true that since the end of the Cold War, many NATO states have been delinquent on both scores, and in fairness Trump is not the first president to complain that U.S. allies have not borne their share of the collective defense burden that comes in the form of national spending on defense. But things are changing, in large part due to Trump. At last year's NATO summit in The Hague, member states agreed to the goal of spending 5 percent of their GDP on defense (3.5 percent of defense on their armed forces and an additional 1.5 percent of GDP on critical infrastructure protection and investment in the European defense industrial base), leading Trump to pronounce this "a big win for Europe and for, actually, Western civilization." Trump either has forgotten this or is misrepresenting what occurred. (The United States, for the record, has not committed to raising its commitment of 3.5 percent to 5 percent.)

NATO, a collection of 32 independent and (mostly) democratic states, is not an American vassal. The alliance, founded in 1949 under American leadership, has throughout its nearly 80-year history always stressed collective action based upon consultation and coordination. Trump did not consult with NATO (or any of its member states collectively or individually) before attacking Iran. They were, therefore, under no obligation-moral or otherwise—to assist in his unilateral campaign. This stands in sharp contrast to NATO's collective response to the terrorist attacks on the United States on September 11, 2001. Those attacks marked the only time that Article 5 has actually been invoked-and it was to defend the U.S., not Europe. Over the next 20 years, hundreds of NATO troops died in the Afghanistan war, including nearly 500 Britons, 159 Canadians, 90 French, 62 Germans, 53 Italians, and 4 Danes. (On a per capita basis, British losses were almost as large as those of the U.S., and the Danish losses actually slightly exceeded those of their American comrades in arms.) Trump's allegation that the allies "have not been there for us" traduces the memory of these brave NATO soldiers.

The suggestion, rampant in parts of the administration, that NATO is a "gift" the United States has bestowed on Europe is bad history and even worse geopolitics. In both 1917 and 1941, the United States found itself joining wars ti sought to avoid but nevertheless was compelled to enter. After the end of World War Il, a bipartisan consensus united Democrats and Republicans in the view that, to prevent a third recurrence, the United States must be involved in European affairs to deter and, if necessary, stop a hostile foreign power from threatening American interests by dominating the European landmass. NATO was and is the result. The threat in 1949 was an aggressive Soviet Union bent on imposing hegemony over Western Europe; today the threat is a hegemonic Russia led by a cold-eyed dictator seeking to reimpose Russia's control over its neighbors.

Then and now, this poses a threat to America's vital national security interests. Our role in NATO not only stabilizes the continent but has brought an unprecedented eight decades of relative peace to an area that routinely fel into general wars every 10 to 20 years.*

Additionally, the U.S. role in NATO has provided us with a network of military bases across Europe, which allows the projection of American military power far from our shores— proving that forward defense begins with forward basing. It has also granted Washington unprecedented influence in shaping events in Europe, a capability it lacked until NATO's creation.

The president's insistence that NATO must involve itself in the war against Iran also ignores the fact that in 1949, when the NATO treaty was being drafted, largely at U.S. insistence, the treaty limited the obligation of a common defense to an attack on the "territory of Europe or North America." This was to avoid the US.. being dragged into wars sparked by the push for decolonization in the 1950s and the fact that France was already embroiled in Indochina, and Britain, Portugal, the Netherlands, and others had colonial dependencies throughout the Third World.

There have been frequent crises in the alliance triggered by recriminations that allies have expected support from other NATO partners in conflicts that they have not received. The 1956 Suez crisis is instructive here. Britain and France colluded with Israel to invade Egypt without telling the United States, even though the U.S. arguably shared an interest in not having the Suez Canal nationalized by Gamal Abdel Nasser. The result was a sharp break by the U.S. with its two closest allies, ending when the Eisenhower administration forced them ot withdraw (thereby foreclosing their role as Middle Eastern powers). In today's circumstances, the shoe is on the other foot. Trump acted without consulting allies in launching the current war with Iran. Our European NATO allies clearly have an interest in degrading Iran's military capabilities and perhaps an even greater interest than the U.S. in opening the Strait of Hormuz because they are more dependent on energy supplies from the Gulf than the US.. But it takes a certain amount of gall to ask our allies to undertake a complex and risky military mission (clearing the Strait of Hormuz) which, in current circumstances, the U.S. Navy is unwilling to undertake because of the high level of risk to warships transiting a narrow body of water that Iran retains the ability to turn into a shooting gallery.

The president's angry comment last week that U.S. membership in NATO is "beyond reconsideration" marks one of his strongest rebukes of the alliance to date: "I would say [it's] beyond reconsideration. . Ialways knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way." Actually, Putin knows that NATO collectively fields more than 3.5 million active personnel, with combined defense spending representing over half of the global total. The alliance holds a massive conventional advantage over potential rivals, with roughly 20,375 aircraft, 2,818 naval vessels, and 12,299 main battle tanks. He knows it poses a massive impediment to his imperial desires, and it is a main reason he is trying so assiduously to destroy it politically.

fI Trump remains determined, to America's and Europe's complete and utter detriment, to turn his anger and emotion into action, fi he truly intends to withdraw from or downgrade U.S. participation in NATO, he will thankfully run into several legal roadblocks. In December 2023, Congress approved Section 1250A of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which specifically requires either the advice and consent of the Senate (requiring a two-thirds vote) or an act of Congress before the president can unilaterally withdraw the United States from the alliance. Both conveniently and inconveniently (depending on one's point of view), the co-sponsor of the provision was none other than Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who had championed the requirement since 2020). It is not clear if the legal provision infringes on the president's treaty-making powers, but it is safe to say that fi Trump attempted to withdraw in defiance of the law, the issue would be tied up in litigation for some time.

Furthermore, fi the president were to attempt to neuter NATO by withdrawing U.S. troops from Europe without formally withdrawing from NATO, he would be stymied by a provision in the 2026 NDAA co-authored by the chairs of the respective Defense and Armed Services Committees that says that the U.S. must maintain at least 76,000 troops in Europe. fI the end strength falls below that number for more than 45 days, the secretary of defense must certify to Congress that the troop movements are in the national security interest of the United States and were executed in consultation with NATO.

Of course, the current administration has not distinguished itself for scrupulous adherence to the rule of law, so it is conceivable that Trump, despite the impediments created by Congress, might attempt to create a fait accompli by simply announcing the U.S. was withdrawing and daring anyone to stop him. This would constitute an act of recklessness virtually without parallel in the postwar history of the United States. In a world marked by increased and intensifying cooperation among America's adversaries-Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea-wantonly destroying the alliance that, with al of its flaws and controversies, provided the basis for deterring communist aggression in Europe and ultimately for winning the Cold War, would divide the US.. from its most importantpartners and make the world safe for authoritarian aggression including potentially war on the Korean peninsula, conflict in Europe in Moldova, along the Suwalki Gap or against Estonia and Finland and, of course, the dangers that lurk in the Indo-Pacific over the future of Taiwan.

Nations are clearly capable of such acts of self-inflicted damage. Others have done it. In the hands of the current national leadership, one can only hope that Otto von Bismarck's adage that "God has a special providence for drunks, small children, and the United States of America" still holds true.

Francis Kelly 4/6/26 Francis Kelly 4/6/26

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

SEC Prepares To Release Quarterly Reporting Reform, Congress Gets Worried About Prediction Markets, and Treasury Focuses on Insurance Industry’s Investments in Private Credit

April 6 -10, 2026

We hope you had a great Easter weekend. Washington is relatively quiet this week as Congress remains out on break. But the calm will be short-lived as the coming weeks will be extremely busy.

This week, SEC Chair Paul Atkins is speaking at two events – one at Vanderbilt University in Nashville and the second in Miami at the Texas Stock Exchange event with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Atkins and the SEC are preparing to release a proposed reform that would allow publicly traded companies to stop issuing quarterly reports and switch to semi-annual reports. There is already significant pushback from major Wall Street firms, including BlackRock, Citadel, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price. No specific date has been set for the proposal's release, but it is expected sometime in April.

Turning to Congress, House Financial Services Chair French Hill said he expects to “bring out a series of reforms in the House” soon that deal with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Chair Hill has not detailed exactly what the exact proposals will be, but we are aware that there have been a series of coordination meetings with the White House to work out details.

Congress is also beginning to focus on the prediction markets. A number of Congressional offices are now banning their staff from using them, and growing chatter suggests legislation to regulate them is likely on the way. Bipartisan concern mushroomed in recent weeks after unusual trading was detected as the U.S. war with Iran was coming, suggesting insider activity.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission indicated last week that it will move aggressively to root out insider trading in predictive markets. But the CFTC is also moving aggressively to fight state regulation of prediction markets, filing lawsuits recently against Illinois, Connecticut, and Arizona to block their efforts to implement their own regulatory and enforcement measures.

Also, last week, the Department of Labor finally unveiled a proposed rule allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private markets, crypto, private equity, and real estate. The proposal comes seven months after President Trump signed an executive order directing regulators to draw up the proposal.

We would also note that the U.S. Treasury Department announced late last week they will convene a series of “conversations” with domestic and international insurance regulators focused on recent developments in private credit markets. No exact dates for the meetings have been released yet, but they are expected to commence later this month.

Finally, next week is going to be extremely busy here in Washington with the Spring IMF/World Bank meetings. Finance ministers and central banks and a good number of financial regulators will descend on the Capitol for innumerable meetings and side-bar discussions. In particular, we will be watching the release of Chapter 2 of the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report, which assesses the growing role of nonbank investors in emerging market finance.

Additionally, Federal Reserve Board Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will have his confirmation hearing in the Senate Banking Committee on April 16th. But his final confirmation will be blocked by a number of senators who have vowed to hold it up until the criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jay Powell is dropped. A federal judge this past Friday again rejected the Department of Justice’s effort to revive subpoenas of the Federal Reserve as part of the investigation, effectively rendering the effort moot.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week.‍ ‍Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the Easter/Passover holiday this week.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is out of session for the Easter/Passover holiday this week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, April 7, 5:50 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market at the University of Detroit Mercy College of Business Administration Charlton Center for Responsible Investing Speaker Series, Detroit, Michigan.

· Tuesday, April 7, 12:35 p.m. -- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated conversation and Q&A on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, April 6, 3:30 p.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at Vanderbilt University and the Blockchain Association’s Inaugural Digital Assets and Emerging Technology Policy Summit in Nashville, Tennessee.

· Tuesday, April 7, 11:00 a.m. – SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will deliver keynote remarks alongside Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Citadel Securities President Jim Esposito, and Texas Stock Exchange Founder and CEO Jim Lee at an event hosted by the Texas Stock Exchange in Miami, Florida.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Tuesday, April 7, 1:00 p.m. – The FDIC Board of Directors holds an open meeting. The agenda items include

o Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: GENIUS Act Requirements and Standards for FDIC-Supervised Permitted Payment Stablecoin Issuers and Insured Depository Institutions.

o Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism Programs.

o Final Rule: Prohibition on Use of Reputation Risk by Regulators.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Wednesday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – the NCUA Board will hold a meeting. The agenda items include:

o Brokered & Reciprocal Deposits

o NCUA’s Deregulation Project

o 2026-2030 Strategic Plan

o 2026 Annual Performance Plan

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet. The agenda includes:

o Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System
Condition and Performance

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Wednesday, April 8, 10:00 a.m. – The FSIC Board will meet. The agenda includes:

o The Quarterly FCSIC Financial Reports

o Quarterly Report on Insured Obligations

o Quarterly Report on Annual Performance Plan

o Annual Report on Investment Portfolio

In Closed Session, the Board will consider:

o The Quarterly Report on Insurance Risk

o Presentation of 2025 Audit Results

o Executive Session of the FCSIC Board Audit Committee with the External Auditor

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Tuesday, April 7, 11:00 a.m. – World Bank Group President Ajay Bangaspeaks at an Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center event on the World Bank’s jobs agenda.

· Thursday, April 9, 10:00 a.m. – International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the spring meetings curtain-raiser speech in advance of the Spring IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, April 7, 10:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance hosts the launch of Chapter 2 of the International Monetary Fund April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report, which assesses the growing role of nonbank investors in emerging market finance.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, April 7, 5:00 p.m. – Georgetown University holds a Global Policy Lecture with Paschal Donohoe, Managing Director and Chief Knowledge Officer at the World Bank (and former Irish Finance Minister). The lecture is entitled “"policy reforms that support job creation, unlock private investment, and drive economic growth."

· Wednesday, April 8, 3:30 p.m. – The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget hosts an event entitled “Boomerang: Wealth, Retirement, and the Generational Divide.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 4/6/26 Francis Kelly 4/6/26

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Facing Trump’s Latest Deadline, Taiwan’s Opposition Leader Travels to Beijing for Meetings, Peru and Hungary Hold Elections, and Markets Brace For The First Economic Reports Reflecting the Impact

April 5 - 12, 2026

We hope you had a peaceful Passover or Easter holiday. The geopolitical week ahead will again be dominated by the escalating war in Iran. On Monday morning, the latest deadline President Trump gave Iranian leaders to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or, according to a profane Truth Social post, Iran will face massive bombings “and complete destruction” of all Iranian electrical power plants, bridges, and other civilian infrastructure.

President Trump suggested in a press interview Sunday that his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are working through back channels to find a peaceful solution. And he extended – again – the deadline to Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

As we said, the Iran situation will dominate global markets' attention, but there is an interesting event taking place this week in China. Taiwan’s Kuomintang Party (KMT) opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun, will be traveling to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior Chinese leaders. Cheng is going at the invitation of President Xi and is considered a high-stakes gambit. But it could also lead to further meetings between senior KMT officials and Beijing to de-escalate tensions between Taiwan and China. She makes the trip as the KMT continue to stall legislation in parliament funding an additional $40 billion in defense spending.

Two major elections are taking place this week, in Hungary and Peru. Hungary's parliamentary elections on Sunday are shaping up to be a difficult battle for 16-year incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Polls suggest the race is neck and neck between Orbán's Fidesz Party and challenger Péter Magyar's Tisza Party. Orbán, a close ally of both President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, asked President Trump to campaign for him this week. However, with Trump preoccupied by the Iran conflict, Vice President J.D. Vance is scheduled to travel to Budapest to meet with Orbán.

In Peru, a record 35 candidates are running for president. The latest polls suggest conservative Keiko Fujimori — running for president for the fourth time — holds the lead, though a runoff is almost certain given the size of the field. The elections come after a prolonged period of political instability. Former President Pedro Castillo attempted to dissolve Congress in December 2022 and was subsequently impeached. His Vice President, Dina Boluarte, assumed the presidency but was removed by Congress in October 2025 for "moral incapacity." She was succeeded by the President of Congress, José Jeri, who became the country's seventh president in nine years — only to be removed in February 2026 after it emerged that he had held undisclosed meetings with a Chinese businessman under government investigation. Jeri was replaced by José María Balcázar, then President of Congress, who assumed the interim presidency — the eighth in nine years — to oversee the transition to these elections.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be looking at the U.S. March CPI on Friday. That report is expected to kick off a series of reports showing the negative impact of the Iran War on the global economy.

Also on the U.S. calendar this week: the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the March ISM Services report (Monday), the February PCE (Thursday), and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (Friday).

In Europe, the European Central Bank's Governing Council will convene for a retreat on Tuesday and Wednesday to discuss the economic outlook. Germany also releases trade and industrial production figures this week.

In Asia, China releases its March PPI and CPI reports on Friday. Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Survey on Wednesday, Consumer Confidence on Thursday, and PPI on Friday. The Bank of Korea meets on interest rates — with no change expected — and Taiwan reports CPI on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Global

· Today is Easter Sunday.

· Eight Opec+ producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman — meet to decide on their output policy for May.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australia’s Daylight Savings Ends.

· Kyoto, Japan holds gubernatorial elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (March)

Monday, April 6, 2026

Global

· The G-24 meeting is being held in advance of the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s latest deadline for Iran to comply with his demand for them to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is today (10:05 a.m. EST). Trump will then hold a press conference with US military leaders at 1:00 p.m.

· The US Congress is out of session this week for the Easter holiday.

· Chilean President Jose Antonio Kast visits Argentina to meet with President Javier Milei.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (January)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· USA ISM Services PMI (March)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam's new National Assembly members, elected in March for five-year terms, start their first legislative session. The rubber-stamp parliament will vote on the country's top leaders, including president and prime minister, in addition to debating laws.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· AMRO is set to release its annual regional economic outlook, offering an assessment of long-term growth trends across Southeast Asia, Japan, South Korea and China. The reports are expected to underscore the impact of rising uncertainty in global trade and heightened geopolitical tensions.

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (March)/ Retail Sales (February)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Most European governments are closed in observance of Easter Monday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· It is Easter Monday in Europe. Most financial markets and banks are closed as is the European Central Bank.

· Spain Unemployment Change (March)

· Serbia PPI (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

· Jordan PPI (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Republic of Burundi celebrates President Ntaryamira Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q4

Tuesday, April 7, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the Economic Outlook and the Labor Market at the University of Detroit Mercy College of Business Administration Charlton Center for Responsible Investing Speaker Series, Detroit, Michigan.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Detroit Economic Club.

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (March)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Durable Goods Orders (February)/ Redbook (April/04)/ Car Production (March)/ New Car Registrations (March)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (April)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations/Consumer Credit Change (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (April/03)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (March)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (March)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (March)

· Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· EARNINGS: Levis, Skillsoft, XCEL Brands, Exxon Q1 preview

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Finance ministry and central bank officials from the 11 ASEAN member states will meet in Manila, the Philippines through Friday to discuss financial services integration, regulatory cooperation and capital market development.

· Cheng Li-wun, the leader of Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang (KMT), makes a closely watched visit to China. She is expected to meet President Xi during her stay through Sunday, which would mark the first engagement between the sitting leaders of the Communist Party and KMT in a decade. Beijing refuses to talk with the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party administration in Taiwan, which sees Cheng's visit as part of an effort to undercut it and undermine defense cooperation with the U.S.

· The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute is set to release its annual survey of Southeast Asian attitudes on regional strategic developments and issues impacting members of the ASEAN bloc. The report, done in January and February before the Iran war, covers topics such as the South China Sea, rising protectionism and nationalism, as well as U.S. leadership under President Donald Trump.

· SmartTech Asia, an expo focused on AI, digital payments and smart identity solutions, is held in Mumbai through April 8th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (March)

· Japan Household Spending (February)/ Average Cash Earnings (February)/ Overtime Pay (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (March)/ Household Spending (February)/ Coincident Index (February)/ Leading Economic Index (February)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Budget Balance (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (March)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (April/07)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Ukrainian Parliament starts the voting process on reforms required to secure external financing. The final vote is expected on Wednesday.

· UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary General Rebeca Grynspan meets with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow to discuss her candidacy for the UN Secretary General.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council attends a retreat hosted by the Banque of France through Wednesday, April 8th.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (March)

· Spain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Italy S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· France S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Germany S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (March)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (March)

· Greece Balance of Trade (February)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (March)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· GITEX AFRICA, Africa’s flagship technology and innovation summit, takes place in Marrakech and runs through April 9.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (March)

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Vice President JD Vance starts a two-day visit, meeting Viktor Orbán and his officials ahead of voting in what is seen as the prime minister’s toughest election contest since 2010.

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte meets with President Trump in Washington through April 12th. Rutte comes after renewed threats by President Trump to withdraw from NATO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly gives keynote remarks and speaks on the economy and monetary policy at the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce in St. George, Utah.

· Chile Inflation Rate (March)

· US Federal Reserve FMOC Minutes

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (April/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (April/03)/ Used Car Prices (March)/ EIA Crude Oil Stocks & Gasoline Change (April/03)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (March)

· EARNINGS: Delta Airlines, Richardson Electronics, Applied Blockchain

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Touch Taiwan, one of Taiwan's biggest industry gatherings of the first half of the year, kicks off in Taipei with a focus on smart displays, advanced manufacturing, industrial materials, green technology and more. Exhibitors include Delta Electronics, Innolux, Merck and Corning.

· The QS China Summit is held in Shenzhen, China through April 9. The Summit is considered a premier forum for academics, industry experts, and decision-makers on the future of higher education in China. It's a niche but well-attended event drawing university and corporate leaders.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (February)

· Japan Current Account (February)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (March)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (March)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (February)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (March/31)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (March)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts the Council of Heads of Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation.

· In the UK, resident doctors in England, represented by the British Medical Association, begin six days of strike action after rejecting the government’s pay offer.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Factory Orders (February)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

· Romania Retail Sales (February)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (March)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (March)

· Hungary Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (March)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (March)

· France Current Account (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ HCOB Construction PMI (March)/ PPI (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (February)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (March)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (March)

· EARNINGS: Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Angola Inflation Rate (March)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (March)

Thursday, April 9, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK).

· International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva delivers the spring meetings curtain-raiser speech in advance of the Spring IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will give a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation in Washington, D.C.

· Canada’s Liberal Party’s biennial convention begins in Montreal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (February)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (March)/ Auto Exports (March)/ Auto Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Core PCE Price Index (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Personal Income (February)/ Personal Spending (February)/ Corporate Profits Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Initial Jobless Claims (April/04)/ PCE Price Index (February)/ Real Consumer Spending Q4/ Wholesale Inventories (February)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (April/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (April/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (April/08)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (March)

· Argentina Industrial Production (February)

· Colombia PPI (March)/ Inflation Rate (March)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Blackberry, ClearSign, WD-40 Company, Constellation Brands

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines celebrates the Day of Valor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (April/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (April/04)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Machine Tool Orders (March)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (February)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (March)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (March)

· EARNINGS: Fast Retailing, Seven & I, Tata Consultancy Services

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a two-day official visit, including a meeting with Pope Leo XIV.

· Today is Kosovo Constitution Day, a national holiday.

· The Politico European Pulse Forum begins in Barcelona, Spain, and runs through April 10th. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, European Commission Executive Vice President for Competition Teresa Ribera, along with a number of other EU and Spanish government officials and CEOs will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Olaf Sleijpen gives a keynote speech at the DNB pension seminar in Amsterdam.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey appears before a European Parliament economic committee in his capacity as chair of the Financial Stability Board.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (March)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (March)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (March)

· Romania Balance of Trade (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (February)

· Spain Industrial Production (February)

· Greece Industrial Production (February)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (March)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (March)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The WiT Africa Conference, which is focused on the Asian travel industry in Africa, kicks off in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)/ Manufacturing Production (February)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (March)

Friday, April 10, 2026

Global

· The 2026 Bilderberg Meeting takes place outside of Washington, D.C., through April 12th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Court of International Trade to consider the legality of President Donald Trump’s latest round of global tariffs, in lawsuits filed by 24 states and two small businesses.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Inflation Rate (March)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Mexico Industrial Production (February)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (March)/ Participation Rate (March)/ Average Hourly Wages (March)

· USA Inflation Rate (March)/ CPI (March)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April)/ Factory Orders (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (April)/ Michigan Current Conditions (April)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (April/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Asia Development Bank (ADB) is set to release its annual regional economic outlook for Asia.

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (March)

· Japan Bank Lending (March)/ PPI (March)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Business Confidence Q1

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Australia Building Permits (February)/ Private House Approvals (February)

· China Inflation Rate (March)/ PPI (March)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Sales (March)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (March)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· India Bank Loan Growth (March/20)/ Deposit Growth (March/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April/03)

· Kazakhstan PPI (March)/ GDP (March)

· Earnings: Yaskawa Electric

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives remarks at an event entitled "Economía y Territorio: Claves para un desarrollo inclusivo" organised by Cámara Oficial de Comercio, Industria y Servicios de Soria in Madrid, Spain.

· Germany Inflation Rate (March)/ Current Account (February)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (February)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (March)

· Turkey Industrial Production (February)

· Italy Industrial Production (February)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (February)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (March)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (March)

· EARNINGS: Sodexo

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Djibouti holds its presidential elections. incumbent president Ismaïl Omar Guelleh who won a fifth term in 2021, has been president since 1999. Originally ineligible for a sixth term due to the age limit of 75 that Guelleh imposed as part of the reforms, Djibouti passed a constitutional amendment in 2025 that lifted age limits, allowing him to run again.

· The 9th Indian Ocean Conference begins in Mauritius and runs through April 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (March)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (March)

Saturday, April 11, 2026

Global

· The U.S. temporary license for seaborne Russian oil sales is set to expire.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, April 12, 2026

Global

· Easter is celebrated in the Orthodox faith today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Kyiv, Ukraine for new talks seeking a cease-fire with Russia (TDB).

· Peru holds elections for president and the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. There are 35 candidates running for president an almost assuredly will lead to a run-off election. Conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of former President Alberto Fujimori, is leading in polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Peru Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Hungary holds parliamentary elections. The elections are expected to be a closely contested race between the ruling Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz) and the centrist Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Benin holds Presidential elections. The ruling coalition and Romuald Wadagni, current minister of state for Finance and Cooperation and Talon’s designated successor, are likely to win.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking Further Out

April 13 – 19 – The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings are to be held in Washington, D.C., bringing together finance ministers, central bank governors, and other officials from around the world.
Week of April 13 – The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is planning to hold a confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. However, it is highly unlikely the committee will schedule a confirmation vote, as several members of the committee have vowed to hold up the confirmation until the Department of Justice drops its criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell.
May 14 – 15 – President Trump will travel to China to meet with President Xi.

Francis Kelly 3/27/26 Francis Kelly 3/27/26

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair Bowman Scheduled to Speak on Economics and Regulation, Congress Heads Out For Two Weeks, and Washington Will Go Blessedly Quiet

March 30 - April 2, 2026

It is Easter and Passover week. Washington will be relatively quiet this week as Congress has headed for a two-week break and most of the regulators go quiet, too. The big event of the week will be a moderated discussion with Fed Chair Jay Powell at Harvard on Monday, and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaking at the Consumer Bankers Association conference in San Diego on Tuesday.

The big news from last week was that the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) met and released a new proposal to revise the Biden-era rules around which nonbank financial institutions should be under FSOC supervision. This is an issue that, depending on which political party is in power, seems to go back and forth and is a perennial battle for financial services lobbyists.

While that was happening, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget signed off on the long-awaited Labor Department (DoL) regulatory proposal allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity and other alternative asset classes. That means DoL will likely release final guidelines in the coming week. Wall Street is, as you might expect, quite excited about the proposal.

Looking at Congress, word spread quickly that new bipartisan legislation is about to be introduced banning members of Congress, as well as the President, and staff from trading in certain prediction markets. The Preventing Real-Time Exploitation and Deception Insider Congressional Trading Act – otherwise known as the PREDICT Act – arises out of concern that politicians will use their influence to influence the markets and make money off it. This will be an interesting bill to track in the coming months.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the Easter/Passover holiday this week.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is out of session this week for the Easter/Passover holiday this week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, March 30, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

· Tuesday, March 31, 3:0 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Stablecoins at The Federalist Society's The GENIUS Act in Practice: Key Questions for Stablecoin Regulation (virtual)

· Tuesday, March 31, 5:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Small Business at CBA Live 2026, San Diego, California.

· Wednesday, April 1, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President and CEO Alberto Musalem speaks at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

· Wednesday, April 1, 9:10 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on AI and Consumer Issues at the National Fair Housing Alliance 2026 Responsible AI Symposium, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, April 2, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday – Wednesday, March 30 – April 1 – The Consumer Bankers Association holds its CBA Live 2026 Conference in San Diego, California.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 3/27/26 Francis Kelly 3/27/26

The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Intensifies, The EU Parliament Gets Ready to Vote on the EU-US Trade Framework, China’s Boao Forum Begins, and Global PMIs Will Show the Impact of the Iran War

March 22 - 29, 2026

The US/Israeli/Iran War looks to both continue and possibly intensify this week. President Trump delivered an ultimatum to Iran on Saturday that expires late Monday, demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz or the US would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants. Iran responded, saying if Trump did this, they would target all US-linked energy facilities in the region – including energy infrastructure and water desalination facilities linked to the US.

Energy markets are already struggling to handle the growing regional risk, with Brent Crude at around $112 per barrel. United Airline CEO Scott Kirby warned on Friday he could see oil hitting $175 per barrel and stay elevated until 2027. And Saudi Arabian energy officials also said on Friday that oil could hit $180 per barrel, creating a global recession.

Additionally, there have been numerous reports the US is considering putting “boots on the ground” in Iran to take out key nuclear sites and other strategic assets. A detachment of 4,500 U.S. Marines is headed to the region as well as a U.S. Army infantry battalion. The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve an additional $200 billion request of Congress for funding for the war.

Elsewhere this week, the European Parliament is expected on March 26th to vote on whether to approve the trade framework with the US. The vote has been held up for weeks following President Trump’s recent order to launch Section 301 investigations – which will almost certainly lead to new tariffs on Europe. The deal almost blew apart, but US and EU diplomats appear to have been able to coble it back together. The vote, if successful, will scrap tariffs on US industrial goods.

Also, in Europe this week, Denmark holds snap parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is seeking a third term and is seen as a tough negotiator with President Trump who held off his efforts to buy and/or invade Greenland. Polling suggests she will win.

Italy holds a constitutional referendum on Sunday and Monday that, if approved, will restructure the judiciary. The vote is seen as an important test of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s power.

In Asia this week, China hosts the 25th Boao Forum in Hainan. Oftentimes described as the Asian version of the World Economic Forum in Davos, it brings Asian government and business leaders together for three days.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, markets – which are shell-shocked by the impact and growing negative implications of the Iran War – are looking intensely at the global flash PMIs out on Tuesday. The inflation indicators for March are likely to be an important marker for the global economic outlook.

In the US this week, the Consumer Confidence Index is out on Tuesday, Durable Goods on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday.

In Europe, Germany releases its Ifo Survey on Wednesday and the UK releases their inflation reports on Wednesday. And the Eurozone flash CPI print is out on Friday. Markets will be paying particular attention to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech on Wednesday for any suggestion of revisions to the central bank’s inflation outlook.

In Asia this week, Japan’s Shunto results are out on Monday and CPI on Tuesday. China releases industrial profits on Friday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia holds regional elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam announces election results from its twice-a-decade National Assembly elections. Following this, the parliament then meets to pick a prime minister and a president for a five-year term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France holds its second round of municipal elections.

· The German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, home to BASF and a major auto-parts industry, holds its parliament election.

· Slovenia holds parliamentary elections.

· Italy votes on a referendum changing the justice system which will separate the career paths of judges and splits Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils. The reform effort is one of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s primary government reform agenda items.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 23, 2026

Global

· President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina continues to commemorate Truth & Justice Day, the conclusion of a four-day holiday. Banks, government, and markets are closed.

· US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor visits the Maldives and Sri Lanka. His meetings are expected to focus on “quiet strategic signaling” to the two countries to ensure US access to major ports.

· The annual CERAWeek conference runs in Houston through March 27 to examine the future of energy, climate, technology and geopolitics

· The Wall Street Journal CFO Council Summit is held in Palo Alto, California, through March 24th.

· In the US, Space Science Week begins at the National Academy of Sciences Building in Washington, D.C., with industry experts discussing the future directions of space science and the commercial galactic flight industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Retail Sales (January)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ Construction Spending (January)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen begins a three-day visit to Australia, including a meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, with the aim of striking a trade deal.

· Eid al-Fitr is observed in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and most of the Middle East. Markets are closed.

· Today is Pakistan Day, a national holiday. All banks and markets are closed.

· The Milken Global Investors’ Symposium is held in Hong Kong with a focus on shifting capital flows, technology and regional growth shaping Asia-Pacific strategies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Singapore Inflation Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The second and final day of the country’s referendum on judicial system changes, a key reform agenda of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government. Voters must decide whether to separate the career paths of judges and split Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.

· Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer answers questions about his government’s performance from MPs on Westminster’s Liaison Committee. Outside London, economics think-tank The Growth Commission hosts Mending Britain’s Broken Economy, a conference in Buckingham, where guest speakers will include former PM Liz Truss.

· Albania celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday. Banks and government are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the House of the Euro event on APPIA Roadmap in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lanes gives a speech at the ECB=SAFE-RECEA International Conference on the Climate-Macro-Finance Interface (3CMFI) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/13)/ Central Government Debt (February)

· Euro Area ECB Wage Tracker Q1/ Consumer Confidence Flash (March)

· Greece Current Account (January)

· Poland Retail Sales (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

· Spain Balance of Trade (January)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Eid al-Fitr is observed across most of the Middle East with markets closed.

· Iran observes Nowruz, the Persian New Year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Eid al-Fitr is observed in Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt.

· Angola celebrates Southern Africa Liberation Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East [2334] followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is expected to meet with oil and gas CEOs to discuss spiking energy prices.

· Anthropic is due in court, with a US judge hearing arguments in the AI company’s dispute with the federal government.

· In Argentina, it is the Memorial Day for Truth and Justice holiday. Financial markets closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Member Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook and community development at the National Community Investment Conference, Phoenix, Arizona.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

· Chile PPI (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Mexico Economic Activity (January)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Nonfarm Productivity Q4/ Unit Labour Costs Q4/ Redbook (March/21)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Money Supply (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/20)/

· Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 begins in the eponymous coastal town, which is part of the city of Qionghai, Hainan. It runs until Friday. Known as Asia's answer to Davos and marking its 25th anniversary this year, participants will discuss economic cooperation at a time of serious global tension and conflict. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is expected to be among the attendees.

· The EU-Vietnam Global Gateway Business and Investment Forum is held in Hanoi, Vietnam.

· German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will visit Japan through March 25th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (February)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

· Japan Inflation Rate (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· EARNINGS: Xiaomi

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Denmark holds parliamentary elections. Social Democrats are expected to stay in power, albeit with what is forecast to be the party’s weakest results in a hundred years.

· A delegation from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will meet EU representatives in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg Fixed Income Forum 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives concluding remarks at the 13th ECB conference on Forecasting Techniques “Artificial intelligence in the analysis of economic narratives, forecasting, and risk assessment” in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia and SUERF Conference on “Central Banking Amid Persistent Global Shifts: Fostering Stability, Innovation, and Reliance” in Skopje, Macedonia.

· European Union New Car Registrations (February)

· Turkey Business Confidence (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

· Switzerland Current Account Q4

· France HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)/ CBI Distributive Trades (March)/ BoE Pill Speech

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

· EAERNINGSEARNINGS: YouGov, Kingfisher, Henry Boot, Bellway

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 6th Africa Fintech Forum takes place in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)/ Consumer Confidence Q1

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins at the Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center in Grapevine, Texas. Speakers include former British prime minister Liz Truss, Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, deputy attorney-general Todd Blanche and political strategist Steve Bannon. It runs until Saturday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran takes part in a conversation at the

Digital Asset Summit 2026 in New York.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (March)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/20)/ Current Account Q4/ Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (March/20)

· Paraguay PPI (February)

· EARNINGS: Chewy, Paychex, Beyond Meat

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Lawmakers in the Philippines House of Representatives are set to conduct hearings for evidence and witnesses related to the two impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte over her alleged misappropriation of public funds and threats against high-ranking officials. The proceedings against Duterte could eventually lead to a formal plenary vote and a Senate trial.

· The Bangkok International Motor Show begins and runs through April 5th. All the major auto manufacturers in Asia are expected to be represented.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Australia Inflation Rate (February)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (February)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (February)/ RBA Jones Speech

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· India M3 Money Supply (March/15)

· Thailand New Car Sales (February)

· EARNINGS: Anta

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Greece celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday with banks and markets closed.

· San Marino celebrates the Anniversary of the Arango, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde vies the President’s Address at The ECB and Its Watchers conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen chairs a panel entitled "Macroprudential framework review: main issues to be addressed" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a panel discussion on "Diversity of the EU banking sector: what ways forward?" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar. Later, he chairs a panel entitled “Sustainability Risks” at the seminar.

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene sits on a panel at the Jefferies Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference in London.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI Input (February)/ PPI Output (February)/ Retail Price Index (February)

· Spain PPI (February)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Tuominen Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech

· Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

· Slovenia Business Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

· Russia Consumer Confidence Q1/ Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Lebanon celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Kenya International Investment Conference takes place through March 27 in Nairobi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Global

· G7 foreign ministers meeting begins in Cerney, France, concluding tomorrow. The focus of the meeting will be the multiple crisis’ in the Middle East and the War in Ukraine. South Korea will attend as a guest participant.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

· The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins in Yaoundé, Cameroon continuing until Sunday. The conference will be chaired by Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, Cameroon’s trade minister.

· The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report.

· Pope Leo visits Morocco.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In New York, there will be a U.S. court hearing for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Reflections on Financial Stability” at the Professor Andrew Metrick & Yale Program on Financial Stability Presents Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Governor Lisa Cook, New Haven, Connecticut.

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran discusses the Fed’s Balance Sheet at the Economic Club of Miami Event, Miami, Florida.

· US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Energy Effects” at the Global Perspectives Speaker Series in Dallas, Texas.

· US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barrs gives a speech on the economy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (March)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (January)

· Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks at Brandon Chamber of Commerce “on factors affecting Canada’s economic outlook and financial system”

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (March/21)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March/14)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/20)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing/ Composite Index (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/26)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/25)/ Fed Miran Speech/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ Fed Barr Speech

· Colombia Business Confidence (February)

· Argentina Economic Activity (January)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Newsmax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In India, today is Ram Navami, the Hindu festival celebrating the birth of Rama. Financial markets closed

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia RBA Kent Speech

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/21)/ Coincident Index Final (January)/ Leading Economic Index Final (January)

· Singapore Industrial Production (February)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· EARNINGS: Xtep

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte presents his 2025 annual report at the military alliance’s Brussels headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Yaoundé, Cameroon on the margins of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 14th Ministerial Conference being held through March 29.

· The Faroe Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Eesti Pank’s Ragnar Nurkse Memorial Lecture Series followed by on-stage conversation with governor Madis Müller in Tallin, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a speech on "The ECB's perspective on the SIU policy" at Savings and Investment Union (SIU) seminar in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· Alan Taylor, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at Exante Data’s 10-year anniversary macro conference in New York.

· Alan Taylor, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at Exante Data’s 10-year anniversary macro conference in New York

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence APR

· Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB General Council Meeting/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Loans to Companies (February)/ Loans to Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)/ ECB Machado Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

· France Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Business Climate Indicator (March)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

· Greece Total Credit (February)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/20)

· Great Britain BoE Taylor Speech

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

· EARNINGS: Hapag-Lloyd, Bertelsmann

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (February)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, March 27, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Annual Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Fiscal Balance (February)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (January)

· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (March)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ Fed Daly Speech/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/27)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ Wholesale Inventories (February)

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (February)

· Argentina Current Account Q4

· Panama Current Account Q4

· EARNINGS: Carnival

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

· South Korea Business Confidence (March)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ PPI (February)

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)/ Current Account Final Q4

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)

· Singapore Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ PPI (February)

· Malaysia PPI (February)

· Thailand Industrial Production (February)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· India Bank Loan Growth (March/15)/ Deposit Growth (March/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/20)

· EARNINGS: BYD

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets via video conference. EU ministers will be discussing the situation in the Middle East and its likely outcome on the EU economy, including energy markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion "Cyber and digital operation resilience" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar. Later, ECB Board Member Patrick Montagner participates on a panel discussion entitled “Private Assets and NBFI: Opportunities and Challenges.”

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a guest lecture at the Department of Economics at University of Zurich in Zurich, Switzerland.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

· Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

· Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will visit the Philippines through March 29th. Hegseth is meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro to reiterate that the 1951 US- Philippines Defense Treaty is "ironclad." Crucially, he is expected to confirm that it covers armed attacks on Philippine Coast Guard vessels anywhere in the South China Sea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, Together Alliance “Together against the far-right” national demonstration in London with speakers including Green Party leader Zack Polanski, former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and actors Christopher Eccleston, Mark Rylance, Maxine Peake and Toby Jones.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion at workshop on “The banking system and today’s geopolitical challenges” organized by Fondazione Banco di Napoli in Napoli, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· In Dubai, the running of the 30th Dubai World Cup, billed as one of the world’s richest horse races, is scheduled to take place (but may be cancelled due to the ongoing war with Iran).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The 58th Conference of African Ministers of Finance (ECA) meets in Tangier, Morocco.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 29, 2026

Global

· Today in the Christian world is Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto arrives in Japan for a three-day state visit, during which he will meet Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and be the main guest at a court lunch with Emperor Naruhito.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

European Daylight Savings Time and British Summer Time begins. Set your clock one hour forward!

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Madagascar commemorates Martyrs’ Day, a public holiday.

· The Central African Republic celebrates Barthelemy Boganda Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 3/20/26 Francis Kelly 3/20/26

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Senate Approves A Bipartisan Housing Bill With Trump’s Controversial Provision Included, The Justice Department Appeals Powell Case, and The Fed To Vote on New Capital Rules

March 16 - 20, 2026

Congress is starting off the week with a bang – or more precisely with tornado and severe weather warnings for the greater Washington, D.C. area, resulting in the House of Representatives cancelling all votes on Monday.

Aside from that, it will be a big week for banks, as the Federal Reserve, the Comptroller of the Currency, and the FDIC boards will vote on a new bank capital rule to implement the final phase of Basel II this Thursday. Bowman previewed the proposals last week at the Cato Institute, saying bank capital rules will decrease “by a small amount” under the coming proposal.

She went on to point out that the proposal will eliminate duplicative capital calculations for the largest banks and will likely allow banks to rely solely on internal model-based risk-based capital ratios, rather than maintaining two sets of ratios (the other being the standardized approach).

Meanwhile, a federal judge squashed efforts to subpoena the Federal Reserve as part of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jay Powell. In a tough ruling, Judge James Boasberg said that the government has “produced essentially zero evidence to suspect Chair Powell of a crime” and called its justifications for the subpoenas so “thin and unsubstantiated” that they were simply a pretext to force Powell to cut interest rates, as Trump has repeatedly demanded.

He went on to write, “There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will.”

But the Justice Department defiantly announced that it intends to appeal the ruling. Our view is that the real impact of their decision to appeal will be on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing, which we can now see will not take place until mid-summer. Senator Tom Tillis (R-NC) and a number of other senators have vowed to hold up Warsh’s confirmation until the investigation of Powell is dropped. Knowing how long appeals can take – and our guess is the Trump Administration will take this all the way to the Supreme Court – that means it will be months before Warsh gets his confirmation hearing. US Treasury officials we spoke to this past week acknowledged this and suggested that President Trump will likely name Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran as Acting Chair when Powell’s term as Chair expires on May 15th.

Looking at events on Capitol Hill, the Senate passed a major bipartisan housing bill last week and is now headed to the House for a vote. But a controversial provision championed – oddly enough – by both President Trump and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), blocking institutional investors from buying homes, was included. A number of House Republicans oppose the provision despite the President’s strong support for it. That is likely to significantly delay final passage.

Also last week, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig said in a speech that prediction markets are quickly becoming critical tools for everyday Americans seeking to understand current events and could serve as a check on “disinformation.” Considering how prediction markets are increasingly becoming a big part of political campaigns – in some way replacing traditional polling – we expect a lot of focus on what Selig does next to regulate them.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week.‍ ‍Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, March 18, 2:30 p.m. – The Joint Economic Committee holds a hearing entitled “Keeping Our Promises: Labor Inflows, Maintaining Competitiveness, and Supporting an Aging Population.”

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, March 17, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Updating America’s Financial Privacy Framework for the 21st Century.”

· Wednesday, March 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Export-Import Bank.”

· Wednesday, March 18, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services monetary policy task force will hold a hearing on the Treasury-Fed Accord, which separated the management of government debt from the central bank’s interest-rate decisions.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday & Wednesday, March 17 & 18 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell gives a press release on March 18 at 2:30 p.m. EST.

· Thursday, March 19, 10:00 a.m. – The Federal Reserve Board holds an Open Board Meeting. The agenda item is to vote on meet to vote on proposed new capital rules for small and large banks, including a re-proposal of the Basel endgame capital plan.

· Saturday, March 21, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives brief acceptance remarks at the American Society for Public Administration (ASPA) Annual Conference: Paul A. Volcker Public Integrity Award Ceremony (virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, March 17, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will give a keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat with CFTC Chair Michael Selig at the DC Blockchain Summit.

· Thursday, March 19, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins and the rest of the SEC Commissioners, and a number of senior SEC officials will participate in the annual two-day SEC Speaks in 2026 Conference sponsored by the Practicing Law Institute.

· Thursday, March 19, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Thursday, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board meets to vote on proposed new capital rules for small and large banks, including a re-proposal of the Basel endgame capital plan.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Tuesday, March 17, 11:00 a.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould speaks at the DC Blockchain Summit.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday, March 19 – the FTC holds its Annual Conference on Marketing and Public Policy.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, March 18, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a conference entitled “Reimagining Homeowners Insurance Amid Growing Climate Risk.”

· Wednesday, March 18, Noon – The Exchequer Club hosts Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), a member of the Senate Banking Committee.

· Wednesday, March 18, Noon – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "The Credit Trajectories of Microbusiness Loan Borrowers."

· Wednesday, March 18, Noon. – The RAND Corporation holds a virtual discussion entitled “America's Housing Crunch: What the Evidence Says."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

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