Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 8/23/26 Francis Kelly 8/23/26

The Global Week Ahead

The US to Announce New Sanctions on Iran, Pakistan’s Army Chief Carries New US Message to Iran, US-Canadian Trade Talks Collapse, Central Bankers Gather in Wyoming, and Is Lagarde Leaving the ECB?

August 23 - 30, 2026

The last week of August is going to be a busy one both geopolitically and for global markets. On Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to hold a news conference announcing a new round of economic sanctions on Iran President Trump has billed as the “toughest sanctions in history.” It is expected the sanctions will apply to a number of Iran’s neighboring countries in an attempt to crush what is left of Iran’s economy (the US dollar rose to a record 1.98 million Iranian rials in Iran’s open markets on Sunday. The British pound reached 2.7 million and the Euro reached 2.3 million).

Iran has called any new US sanctions “economic terrorism” and is threatening to militarily target any country that complies with them. The big question is whether the sanctions will go after Chinese banks and Chinese “teapot” oil refineries which specialize in Iranian oil and are seen as a major funder of Iran’s economy. Our sources tell us it is highly unlikely China in any way will be included out of White House concern it will derail Chinese President Xi Jinping’s scheduled visit to Washington in September.

One new development emerged this weekend: It has been announced that on Monday, Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff, Asim Munir, will travel to Tehran for talks with senior Iranian officials. While the visit is being billed as an effort to “strengthen bilateral cooperation” and bolster Pakistan’s efforts to “promote peace in the region,” there are reports Munir is also carrying a new message from the US that may signal President Trump’s willingness to pursue a new round of peace talks.

Meanwhile, markets were stunned late Friday when news broke that trade talks between Canada and the US broke down and President Trump is moving forward with new 50 percent tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods effective Saturday.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada is now “at war” over trade with the US and will impose new dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs on September 8th. It appears the talks broke down when President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick demanded a new set of concessions from Canada at the last minute as Carney was already facing serious political constraints at home on what had already been agreed upon. Among them was a demand from the US to have “exclusive access” to Canada’s critical minerals and President Trump’s belief that French language provisions on products in French-speaking Quebec are actually used as trade barriers (which he wanted eliminated).

What happens next is anyone’s guess. Republican lawmakers were split in their reaction to the announcement, with many border state Republicans asking the White House to quickly reconsider entering into new talks.

Also of note this week: Iceland is holding a referendum on whether to resume negotiations to join the European Union. Talks had started in 2009 but were suspended in 2013. Polls suggest the vote is going to be close with 53 percent of voters wanting to reopen negotiations and 47 opposed – but the issue of fishing rights is a major stumbling block for ultimate approval of the country joining.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, the big event this week is the annual Jackson Hole Symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will give a major speech on the economic outlook on Friday. But on the sidelines, we think there will be significant discussion on the future of the European Central Bank with news breaking over the weekend that ECB President Christine Lagarde is preparing to step down and is “ready to serve” as the new chair of the World Economic Forum (WEF). Reports that she would take the job have circulated for a while, despite Lagarde previously dismissing them.

Also this week, the G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting takes place Saturday and Sunday in Ashville, North Carolina. The meeting takes place in advance of the Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Ministerial being held August 31st through September 1st. Federal Reserve Board Governor Warsh is also scheduled to attend and speak.

Looking at the major economic indicators, in the US, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is out on Tuesday as is July new home sales. Then on Wednesday, the July PCE reports on personal income, spending and durable goods orders.

In Asia, Japan’s August Tokyo CPI and July labor market data reports are out on Friday. China releases July industrial profits on Thursday.

In Europe, The ECB’s July meeting account is released on Thursday. We will also see the French and Spanish August CPI prints are out on Friday. Germany’s Ifo August survey is out Tuesday as is Q2 GDP estimates. France’s consumer confidence report is out Tuesday, Germany’s consumer confidence on Thursday, and Italy’s on Friday.

Finally, earnings reports are still coming out and the big one markets are watching this week is Nvidia’s on Wednesday.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 23, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa travels to Singapore and then Vietnam as part of a broader Asia trip. Today, he concluded a visit to China where he met with President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang, and other senior officials. The China meetings – his second visit to China since June – were focused on finding a way to resolve the suspension of 14 Ecuadorian shrimp processors and to secure fresh investments by China in energy and mining in Ecuador. The Singapore visit is aimed at improving trade and using Singapore as a greater gateway for Ecuadorian products in the wider ASEAN market. The Vietnam visit is aimed at generally improving bilateral trade and agricultural exports.

· Mexican Deputy Foreign Minister Roberto Velasco Alvarez travels to South Korea for meetings through August 25th. They will discuss energy security and other security issues.

· The Panamerican Congress concludes in Montevideo, Uruguay. This is a meeting of Progressive lawmakers from all over the Western Hemisphere, including a large contingent of US Democratic lawmakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Kuwait Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah will pay an official visit to China through August 24th for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. They are expected to discuss the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

· In Kazakhstan, legislative elections are held for all 145 seats of their parliament (Kurultai).

· Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will make an annual address to mark the independence of the city-state. Seen as his keynote political speech for the year, Wong is expected to address how his government can further support families as the Southeast Asian financial hub struggles with raising its birth rate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar will be in Moscow for two days of meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov. Jaishankar will co-chair the 27th Session of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific, Technological and Cultural Cooperation (IRIGC-TEC). Jaishankar’s meeting with Lavrov is expected to focus on regional and global issues – this is the second meeting between the two ministers in the last month. Tensions between the two countries recently became elevated when in late July four Indian sailors were killed by a Russian missile strike on a merchant vessel in the Black Sea.

· Today is National Flag Day in Ukraine.

· The Stockholm International Water Institute holds its World Water Week Conference in Stockholm, Sweden through August 27th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu in Paris, France. The Crown Prince last visited Paris in 2023. The leaders will discuss ways to expand economic partnerships and ways of returning stability in the Middle East in the face of the Iran War and the ongoing military activities in Lebanon and Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 24, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan.

· The ONS International Energy Conference begins in Stavanger, Norway. The event focuses on geopolitics, energy security and climate issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to announce additional economic sanctions on Iran. Iranian leaders have threatened a military response to whatever the US imposes. Markets are watching the announcement closely to see if the sanctions will include Chinese “teapot” oil refineries and Chinese banks involved in processing Iranian oil production.

· Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Van Thang travels to the US to a participate in the Columbia University Vietnam Leadership Program. He will then travel to Washington for meetings with US officials and business leaders.

· Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov travels to the US for meetings on a variety of defense technology projects. Fedorov was ousted as Defense Minister by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in July. His meetings may include a meeting with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.

· The Nuclear Energy Conference & Expo (NECX) begins in Dallas, Texas, bringing together utilities, advanced reactor developers, regulators, policymakers and investors to discuss the industry’s future. Continuing until Thursday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin delivers most recent speech, “The Mysterious U.S. Economy" before the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce “Eggs & Issues" event.

· Mexico Economic Activity (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)

· Chile PPI (July)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· EARNINGS: Woodside Energy

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Jordan’s King Abdullah II concludes a week-long state visit to China.

· Today is the last day of Vietnam’s extraordinary National Assembly session. During the session, the body approved an agreement related to the country's first nuclear power plant project in Ninh Thuan province, as well as special mechanisms to resolve obstacles facing some wind and solar power projects. Lawmakers are also scheduled to vote on proposals to establish Quang Ninh and Bac Ninh as centrally governed cities, along with special policies for projects supporting APEC 2027 on Phu Quoc island.

· A cross-party group of Japanese legislators are expected to travel to Beijing for meetings through August 27th in a bid to help thaw tensions between China and Japan.

· The APEC Food Security Ministerial meeting takes in Hangzhou, China.

· The Silk Road Finance and Technology Forum begins in Tashkent, Uzbekistan and runs through August 26th. The Forum is the annual gathering for Central Asian economies.

· Hyundai Motor workers are expected to hold a four-hour strike at plants nationwide in South Korea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

· EARNINGS: XPeng Inc, PDD Holdings Inc., Sinopec (first-half earnings)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska will participate remotely in a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing, co-hosted by the UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

· Today is Independence Day in Ukraine, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Riksbank Deputy Governor Aino Bunge joins a panel discussion on private capital markets in Stockholm, Sweden.

· Poland Retail Sales (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir will travel to Tehran on Monday at the head of an official delegation. Baghaei said the visit was aimed at strengthening bilateral cooperation and continuing Pakistan’s efforts to promote peace and security in the region. Munir is scheduled to hold talks with senior Iranian officials during the visit. He is reportedly carrying a new message from the US on possible peace talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Flag Day in Liberia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, August 25, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of International Peace and Security - Food Under Fire: The Security Council’s Role in Mitigating Global and Local Food Crises. World Food Program Acting Executive Director Carl Skau will be briefing alongside the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The South Carolina Senate run-off election between Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman (R-SC) is held.

· Oklahoma holds gubernatorial primary run-off elections.

· Today is Independence Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President gives a speech entitled "The Mysterious U.S. Economy" before the Charlotte Regional Business Alliance, Charlotte, North Carolina.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (August)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (August/22)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (June)/ House Price Index (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (August)/ New Home Sales (July)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (August)/ Money Supply (July)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/21)/ Building Permits (July)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (July)

· Mexico Current Account Q2

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (July)

· EARNINGS: Scotiabank, BMO, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Intuit, Zoom, Select Quote

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Kuwait Foreign Minister Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah travels from China to South Korea for meetings with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun. It is the first trip by a Kuwaiti foreign minister to the country since 2007. Kuwait is South Korea’s 5th largest crude oil supplier and 4th overseas construction market for South Korea globally. They are expected to focus on energy security and the Iran War.

· Indonesia hosts the annual Super Garuda Shield military exercises. For more than two weeks, more than 3,000 military personal from Indonesia, the US, Australia, Japan, the Netherlands, Canada, South Korea, Timor Leste, India, Singapore, New Zealand, Brazil, Italy, Laos, and Cambodia will participate.

· China’s Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress will hold a session through August 28th in Beijing. Agenda items include draft laws such as the Medical Security Law, Enterprise Bankruptcy Law amendments, and proposed changes to the Banking Supervision and Administration Law, plus a review of national economic and social development plan implementation and the state budget so far this year.

· The Inaugural Singapore-Vietnam Strategic Dialogue begins in Singapore.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

· China National People's Congress

· Australia RBA Jacobs Speech

· Japan Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Vatican’s Foreign Minister, Archbishop Paul Gallagher, travels to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. He will be in Moscow through August 28th. The purpose of the meetings is to discuss a variety of diplomatic and ecumenical issues, including the Ukraine War. Gallagher was recently in Ukraine (July)

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Ifo Business Climate (August)/ Ifo Current Conditions (August)/ Ifo Expectations (August)

· France Consumer Confidence (August)

· Spain PPI (July)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (July)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Lego (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (June)

Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, including the Palestinian question.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will hold its International High-level Forum to launch the Atomic Technologies Licensed for Applications at Sea (ATLAS) initiative in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (August/21)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/21)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/21)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/21)/ Durable Goods Orders (July)/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2/ Personal Income (July)/ Personal Spending (July)/ Corporate Profits Q2/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp (July)/ GDP Price Index 2nd Est Q2/ PCE Price Index (July)/ PCE Prices 2nd Est Q2/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (July)/ GDP Sales 2nd Est Q2/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (July)/ Real Consumer Spending 2nd Est Q2/ Real Personal Spending (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/21)/ Fed Barkin Speech

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (August)

· EARNINGS: Nvidia, National Bank (Canada), EQB (Canada), Kohl’s, Dycom, Williams-Sonoma, JMS Smucker Co., Nutanix, Synopsys, CrowdStrike, Salesforce

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia and Australia will hold their 10th “2+2” Foreign and Defense Ministers meeting in Melbourne.

· The Nikkei Asia Forum Sydney 2026 is held. The event convenes high-level government, business and diplomatic figures to discuss key issues confronting Australia-Japan relations and broader developments in the region. Speakers include the secretary of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, the chair of Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board, the chair of Export Finance Australia, and the country's former Prime Minister Scott Morrison, as well as key figures from major banks, energy companies, hospitality and investment firms.

· The Thailand Focus 2026 Conference is held in Bangkok, with Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas among the scheduled speakers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (August)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)/ Construction Work Done Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (July)/ CPI (July)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (July)

· Thailand New Car Sales (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

· China National People's Congress

· Singapore Industrial Production (July)

· India M3 Money Supply (August/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the Deutsche Bundesbank's Symposium "Future of payments: trends and innovations in Germany and Europe" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ SNB Martin Speech

· UK CBI Distributive Trades (August)/ Car Production (July)

· Russia Industrial Production (July)

· EARNINGS: Prudential

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 27, 2026

Global

· The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins and runs through August 29th. This year’s theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Syria, followed by consultations on the Middle East.

· The BRICS Contact Group on Economic and Trade Issues holds a virtual meeting.

· The BRICS Working Group on Environment meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank Thomas Barkin participates in panel before the Greensboro Chamber of Commerce "State of Our Community" event in Greensboro, North Carolina.

· USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/22)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (July)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/15)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/22)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/21)/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (August)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/27)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/27)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/26)

· Brazil Current Account (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Canada Current Account Q2/Average Weekly Earnings (June)

· Colombia Business Confidence (July)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (July)

· EARNINGS: CIBC, Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, Best Buy, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Hormel, Burlington, Marvell Technology, Autodesk, Gap

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks at a meeting of local business leaders in Saitama, Japan.

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/22)/BoJ JGB Purchase

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Australia RBA Bulletin/ Building Capital Expenditure Q2/ Household Spending (July)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q2/ Private Capital Expenditure Q2/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (July)/ National People's Congress

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: BiliBili, Vanke, Qantas Airways

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Political and Security Committee meets in Brussels. The Committee is composed of all ambassadors of the 27 EU members states. They are expected to review and discuss the situation in Iran and other major international issues and events.

· Today is Independence Day in Moldova, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank monetary policy meeting minutes released.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (September)

· Hungary Gross Wage (June)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

· France PPI (July)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (July)/ Jobseekers Total (July)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (July)/ Loans to Households (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

· EARNINGS: Pernod Ricard

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (June)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/21)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (July)

Friday, August 28, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a consultation on Lebanon.

· The BRICS FinTech Group meets virtually.

· A partial lunar eclipse will be visible over the Americas, Europe, Africa and parts of western Asia

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh gives keynote remarks at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August)/ Bank Lending (July)/ PPI (July)/ Net Payrolls (July)

· Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP (June)/ GDP (July)/ GDP Implicit Price Q2/ Budget Balance (June)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (July)

· USA Chicago PMI (August)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (August)/ Michigan Current Conditions (August)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/28)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/28)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Unemployment Rate (July)/ Jobs/applications ratio (July)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (August)/ Tokyo CPI (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Construction Orders (July)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)/ Budget Balance (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

· Singapore Bank Lending (July)/ Import/Export Prices (July)/ PPI (July)

· China National People's Congress

· Malaysia PPI (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

· Thailand Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Private Consumption (July)/ Private Investment (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)

· India Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/21)

· EARNINGS: Petronas, Bank of China (HY)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy" in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· Russia GDP (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

· UK Nationwide Housing Prices (August)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

· France Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Household Consumption (July)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

· Spain Inflation Rate (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (August)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August)

· Turkey Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Confidence Index (August)/ Imports/Exports (July)

· Germany Unemployed Persons (August)/ Unemployment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Italy Industrial Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (July)

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Industrial Sentiment (August)/ Selling Price Expectations (August)/ Services Sentiment (August)

· Greece PPI (July)/ Total Credit (July)

· Serbia Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

· Ireland Retail Sales (July)

· EARNINGS: Bertelsmann (HY), Northam Platinum (HY)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Balance of Trade (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Global

· The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting begins in Asheville, North Carolina and runs through August 30th. The meeting is in preparation for the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting being chaired by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Asheville on August 31st to September 1st. The agenda of both meetings is “modernizing financial regulation; strengthening our understanding of excessive global imbalances; enhancing debt transparency and facilitating debt restructuring processes; endorsing a vibrant digital assets ecosystem; improving cross-border payments and addressing payments fraud and scams; and promoting financial literacy.”

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Iceland holds a referendum on the resumption of European Union membership negotiations. Iceland applied to join the EU in 2009, but negotiations have been suspended since 2013. Subsequent governments have insisted that a referendum be held before negotiations resume.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union will hold the 21st Extraordinary Summit on Strengthening Conflict Prevention and Resolution Mechanisms in Luanda, Angola.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope — named after the first NASA chief astronomer, who is often dubbed “the mother of the Hubble Space Telescope” — launches aboard a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting will be held in Koror, Republic of Palau.

· Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkey celebrates Victory Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea-Bissau holds a constitutional referendum which will expand presidential powers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· August 29 – 30: The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

· August 31 – September 1: the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

· September 1 – 2: There will be a G20 Innovation Ministerial held in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

· September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Francis Kelly 8/21/26 Francis Kelly 8/21/26

Does Iran Have A Treasury Market Strategy?

August 20, 2026

Markets understand there is a correlation between global oil prices and bonds. But the interesting question is: How well does the leadership in Tehran understand this and have they made it part of their overall strategy vs.the US? Or to put it another way, are they seeking to weaponize the Treasury markets?

I think the answer is a simple “yes - very much so.” Iranian leadership have proven over the last five and half months that they are not only highly resilient but creative and cunning in their military strategies and tactics (just look at the use of drones/missiles on US facilities throughout the region, mines in the Strait of Hormuz, calibrated deployment of the Houthis in Yemen to threaten both the Gulf States but also threaten closure of the Red Sea, etc.).

With that in mind, why wouldn’t they want to deploy every tool at their disposal to impact the global bond markets in general and US Treasuries in particular? Of course they would. They understand that by driving up oil prices Treasury’s would be impacted (especially if timed with other global market event/shifts such as big sell-offs of AI and semiconductor sectors).

the US Treasury is responding today with the announcement of more buybacks to help calm the market. But the lesson is learned: Iran is willing and capable of doing a lot more than most analysts seem to understand to both defend themselves and attack the US.

Francis Kelly 8/21/26 Francis Kelly 8/21/26

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Crypto, Prediction Markets, and Blockchain in Focus This Week, and Otherwise, Nothing Is Going On in Washington

August 17 - 21, 2026

The quiet in Washington during August is a wonderful thing. Little to no traffic, a sizeable reduction in political fisticuffs, and a great time to catch up on your reading. But that does not mean nothing is going on. This week, crypto, prediction markets, and blockchain are having a moment in the sun.

First, the White House is reportedly hosting a meeting on Wednesday that will bring together the CEOs of several leading crypto and prediction market firms, along with the CEOs of all the major exchanges (but no formal announcement has come out of the White House yet). It has yet to be confirmed, but it appears President Trump will host the event along with CFTC Chair Michael Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins. The agenda has yet to be announced, but our sources tell us it is more likely to be a rallying event to push the Senate to get to a deal on the CLARITY Act.

The meeting comes right after the annual Wyoming Blockchain Symposium where SEC Chair Atkins will be speaking (along with Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) and several other senators). And it comes a day before the CFTC’s inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting where crypto will be the main topic.

Other than these three events, Washington is wonderfully quiet. Hope you are enjoying it as much as we are. Let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is in recess until September 14.

House of Representatives

· The House is in August recess until September 7.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Wednesday, August 19, Time TBD: The White House is expected to host a gathering of officials from the prediction markets and cryptocurrency industries. The event will be hosted by President Trump and CFTC Chair Michael Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins will also attend. We understand the CEOs of Coinbase, Ripple, Gemini, Polymarket, Kalshi, Nasdaq, the CME, and the New York Stock Exchange will also attend. The event appears to be aimed at boosting efforts to get the CLARITY Act unstuck in the Senate.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· There are no speeches scheduled at this time.

Conferences –

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, August 18, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins is scheduled to speak at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· Wednesday, August 19, Time TBD: SEC Chair Paul Atkins is scheduled to participate at an event at the White House bringing together leaders from the crypto and prediction markets along with the CEOs of the major exchanges.

· Thursday, August 20, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Wednesday, August 19, Time TBD: CFTC Chair Michael Selig is scheduled to participate at an event at the White House bringing together leaders from the crypto and prediction markets along with the CEOs of the major exchanges.

· Thursday, August 20, 1:00 p.m. – The CFTC’s inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting will take place. According to a recent press release, the committee “was created to advise the Commission on complex issues at the intersection of technology, law, policy, and finance. This council of American innovators, entrepreneurs, thinkers, and builders will provide insights and recommendations to the Commission to help ensure its regulations keep pace with the rapid speed of innovation on the new frontier of finance.”

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Wednesday, August 19, 2:10 p.m. (MT) – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould speaks at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, August 18, 1:00 p.m. – SIFMA holds a member briefing on Trump Accounts & IRAs.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday – Thursday, August 17 – 20: The Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2026 takes place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Speakers include Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould, SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), and Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/17/26 Francis Kelly 8/17/26

The Global Week Ahead

The US-Iran MOU Expires with the US Promising Tougher Economic Sanctions, The US and Canada Close in on a Tariff Deal, China and India Hold High-Level Security Talks, and Markets Await Global Inflation Reports

August 16 - 23, 2026

So much for hopes of a quiet August. The US-Iran 15 Point Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is set to expire Monday, with little hope of revival. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will now move to impose new economic sanctions on Iran that will be “unprecedented.” President Trump also said in a speech last week that the measures that are coming as soon as this week will be on a scale that has “Never been seen.”

As to the specifics of the forthcoming sanctions, speculation has focused on the US imposing sanctions on Chinese independent oil refineries known as “teapots.” They reportedly account for more than 25 percent of all Chinese refinery capacity, and China has traditionally purchased more than 80 percent of Iran's shipped oil. Also reported to be in Trump's focus are Chinese banks that have funded the processing of Iranian oil for production and shipment.

The big question is whether President Trump is willing to announce such tough sanctions on Chinese entities in advance of Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit to the US in September, risking the cancellation of the summit?

Additionally, Treasury is considering imposing sanctions on any land-based trade, focusing on Iraq, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. In the face of such sanctions, Iran hit two tankers this weekend with drones, and the risk of more strikes is likely to increase if and when the sanctions are announced.

Meanwhile, Washington and Ottawa are racing to strike a trade deal before Wednesday when President Trump’s new 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods goes into effect. Reports suggest the outlines of a deal are close, with Canadian concessions including new trade in oil, gas, critical minerals, and promises to increase defense spending.

New Delhi will be a busy place this week as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrives for talks with Indian officials to participate in the 24th round of talks on the Indian-Chinese border. But there will be separate side talks between Wang and Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar on trade and investment issues. China sees an opportunity to improve historically chilly relations with India as the US and India have yet to finalize a trade deal and India wants to ensure “strategic autonomy”, so the country is not too dependent on either the US or China. Additionally, the talks are seen as a way for China to help shape the agenda for the upcoming BRICS Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi next month.

Wang then flies to South Korea for talks – the first time a Chinese foreign minister has visited Seoul in over five years. Wang will discuss North Korea’s nuclear program and broader security issues on the Korean Peninsula. The meetings take place just as the US and South Korean military drills – Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises – were set to begin this week and run through the rest of the month. However, late Sunday President Trump tweeted out on his Truth Social account that, “Based on my very good relationship with Kim Jong Un, of North Korea…” he was not happy with the US participating in joint military exercises with South Korea. He cited two reasons: the cost and South Korea’s supposed lack of support for the US war with Iran.

Looking at the global economic and financial market radar screen this week, the big focus of markets will be the global flash PMIs this Friday for the US, Germany, France, the UK, and Japan.

Looking regionally, the US Federal Reserve releases the July FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Also, out this week in the US are housing starts and permits and July industrial production, both out on Tuesday. Canada’s July inflation data is out Monday, and June retail sales figures are out Friday.

In Asia this week, markets will be watching for Japan’s Q2 GDP figures on Monday (the expectations being the economy grew by 0.5%) and national CPI on Friday. We will also get Japan’s machinery orders for June on Wednesday, trade balance numbers on Thursday, and nationwide July consumer price figures on Friday.

China releases retail sales, industrial sales (watching for a slowdown), housing prices, and fixed-asset investment numbers reports on Monday. And China’s loan prime rates will be set on Thursday (no change expected).

In Europe this week, the flash August PMIs for Germany, France, and the Eurozone are out on Friday. Germany’s ZEW Survey is out on Tuesday. Also out on Friday is the European Central Bank’s July Consumer expectations survey. The UK releases a flood of data this week, the biggest being the labor market data on Tuesday, July inflation figures on Wednesday, and flash August PMI and retail sales on Friday. Sweden’s Riksbank is out with its interest rate decision on Thursday.

Finally, we are moving toward the home stretch of major corporate earnings this week with Home Depot, Target, Walmart, John Deere, and Analog Devices all reporting in the US and Alibaba and Baidu reporting in China.

Below is our detailed report on all the other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil’s 2026 election campaign season formally begins (the elections are in October).

· Today is Restoration Day in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Malaysia, the Democratic Action Party will vote on whether to leave Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In Durban, South Africa, the 46th Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 17, 2026

Global

· The June US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and ceasefire are set to expire.

· The BRICS Youth Energy Summit (virtual) runs through August 18th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· White House Special Envoy for Peace Jared Kushner traveled to Egypt Sunday for meetings with Hamas leadership and then on to Israel today to discuss the situation in Gaza. The announcement came from a spokesman for the for the Board of Peace. Kushner is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Accompanying Kushner will be former British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Gaza Board of Peace Head Nickolay Mladenov. The meetings come following Israel’s rejection of the Board’s 15-point peace plan, stating that until Hamas “truly disarmed” Israel could not accept a deal.

· The annual Wyoming Blockchain Symposium begins in Jackson Hole, running until Thursday. The invitation-only, 500-person event brings together investors, entrepreneurs and policymakers involved in digital assets. Speakers include SEC Chair Paul Atkins.

· Today is San Martin Day in Argentina, honoring José de San Martín. It is a national holiday and financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (August)/ IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Common (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (June)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (August)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In China, The Ministry for Foreign Affairs resumes its routine daily press briefings. The briefings had gone into hiatus from August 3-14 for the annual closed-door Beidaihe leadership retreat — the informal Chinese Communist Party conclave where senior and retired leaders discuss personnel and policy. Reporting suggests this year's discussions centered on Party discipline, economic headwinds, and preparation for the October Fifth Plenary Session (focused on "comprehensive and strict governance of the Party") ahead of the 21st Party Congress next year.

· The US and South Korea hold their joint Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise which runs through August 27th. Approximately 8,000 Republic of Korea (ROK) troops plus personnel from 11 other UN Command member states will participate. While this is a US-ROK drill, Japan is expected to be on heightened alert throughout this timeframe Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has already activated emergency response protocols for recent North Korean missile launches (which were fired off on August 6th and 11th, respectively), in the event Pyongyang tests again during the exercise period, which is historically likely.

· Today is Liberation Day in South Korea, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed.

· Today is Independence Day in Indonesia, a national holiday.

· South Korea’s Democratic Party is expected to elect its next party leader. So far, Kim Min-seok is leading the Democratic Party's leadership race with a cumulative 52.21% of votes cast in regional primaries.

· Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul will begin a trip to Australia and New Zealand.

· The Thailand-U.S. Trade & Investment Summit takes place in Bangkok.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (July)/ Services NZ PSI (July)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)/ Food Inflation (July)

· Japan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2 / GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June) / Tertiary Industry Index (June)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (July)/ Non-Oil Exports (July)

· China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

· India Unemployment Rate (July)

· EARNINGS: BitFuFu, HTHT, Geely Automobile Holdings, National Australia Bank, Aurizon

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian FM Sergey Lavrov will hold talks with Ghana Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa in Moscow. Ablakwa is there for a working visit through August 19th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a panel "Europe’s Defense Build-Up: Macroeconomic, Fiscal, and Financial Stability Challenges" at Annual Congress of the European Economic Association in Dublin, Ireland.

· Belarus Industrial Production (July)

· EARNINGS: BHP Group

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel’s Likud Party holds its primary to choose Knesset members.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Gabon, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.

· The UN General Assembly will hold a solemn session in tribute to the memory of His Highness the Father Amir of the State of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani, convened at the request of the Mission of Qatar.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· There will be primaries in Florida, Alaska and Wyoming, Special election in California’s 14th Congressional District.

· In Oakland, California, opening statements are due to be made in a landmark federal court trial brought by 29 states, alleging Meta improperly captured data from minors, designed its social media platforms to addict children and misled the public about their safety.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Housing Starts (July)

· USA Housing Starts (July)/ Building Permits (July)/ Import/Export Prices (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Pending Home Sales (July)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (August)/ Redbook (August/15)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/14)

· Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)

· El Salvador PPI (July)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Home Depot, Toll Brothers, Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi travels to India for the 24th round of the Special Representatives' Talks on the China-India Boundary Question with Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, plus a separate bilateral meeting with Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar. This is Wang's first India trip in roughly a year and comes as Beijing and New Delhi work to stabilize ties after prior border tensions — notable timing given it lands right alongside the BRICS Tourism Ministers' meetings in Jaipur.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (August)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (August)

· Turkey Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (July)

· EARNINGS: Baidu, VNET

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine’s Parliament returns from a month-long recess. This will be the body’s first chance to formally appoint a new permanent defense minister following Mykhailo Fedorov's dismissal in July. Acting Defense Minister Maj. Gen. Yevhenii Khmara is the likely replacement but there is some question as to whether he is ready to leave active military duty yet.

· Russia's President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with President of Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing, who will be on an official visit to Russia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on an EEA-ECB panel "Monetary Policy in a Geopolitically Fragmented World" at Annual Congress of the European Economic Association in Ireland, Dublin.

· UK Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (June)/ Claimant Count Change (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)/ Labour Productivity Q2

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ ZEW Current Conditions (August)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

· Spain Balance of Trade (June)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

· EARNINGS: Klarna

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia (arriving in Riyadh on August 18) and Oman (arriving in Muscat on August 20th) from August 17th to 22nd. He will meet with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud and Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi to address regional maritime security and de-escalation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Global

· The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) is expected to launch their Panorama of Productive Development Policies in Latin America and the Caribbean annual report.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold its annual open debate on working methods. The meeting will focus on the implementation of Danish presidential note S/2024/507 to enhance transparency, inclusivity, and efficiency.

· The 2nd BRICS Tourism Working Group Meeting takes place in Jaipur, India. The meeting will focus on focused on AI in tourism, sustainable/responsible tourism, skills development, and travel facilitation.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US’ 50% tariff on over 500 Canadian products worth close to $20 billion goes into effect. Since President Trump threatened the tariffs, trade talks have intensified sharply between Ottawa and Washington. Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on August 11th — their third meeting in as many weeks. As of now, it appears a possible emerging framework to avoid the draconian tariffs would have the US roll back the 50% threat and reduce Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber, in exchange for Canada eliminating retaliatory auto tariffs, easing provincial restrictions on US alcohol sales, and reworking dairy quota arrangements. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has repeatedly said Canada "will not accept a bad deal," while maintaining talks are "constructive." Analysts we have spoken to caution a comprehensive deal likely requires direct Carney-Trump engagement rather than being finalized at the negotiator level — worth watching for a leaders' call or meeting this week as the deadline lands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board FOMC Minutes released

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/14)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (August/14)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/14)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/14)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/14)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/14)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)

· Colombia Imports/Balance of Trade (June)

· EARNINGS: Analog Devices, Target, Lowe’s, Estee Lauder, Viking, Carlyle Group, TJX Cos.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to begin a two-day visit to South Korea through August 20th. This is the first time a Chinese foreign minister has traveled to South Korea for bilateral talks in five years. South Korea plans to urge Beijing to reaffirm the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and help encourage Pyongyang to return to dialogue, following recent high-level exchanges between China and North Korea. Discussions will cover strategic cooperation, trade, and managing regional stability amidst broader U.S.-China dynamics. But the meeting will also see China use the occasion to reiterate its position on the "one China" principle, while Seoul may raise maritime boundary and Yellow Sea structure concerns.

· In Beijing, the World Robot Conference begins, running until Sunday. The event showcases the latest advances in humanoid robots and other high-tech machines. According to Nikkei Asia, with government backing, China is making a major push to cement itself as the leading force in the emerging field. Another robotics event, the World Humanoid Robot Games, is scheduled to start Saturday in the Chinese capital, featuring a record 2,056 robots from 666 teams, according to state media. The highly anticipated Shanghai IPO of leading humanoid maker Unitree is expected during the week as well.

· Today is Revolution Day in Vietnam, marking the historic 1945 August Revolution led by Ho Chi Minh.

· The AI Summit Seoul & Expo takes place and runs through Aug. 21st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks at the Queensland Futures Institute Annual Regions Summit in Brisbane.

· Japan Machinery Orders (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

· Australia Wage Price Index Q2/ RBA Hauser Speech

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision (August)/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)/ Loan Growth (July)

· New Zealand PPI Input Q2/ New Zealand PPI Output Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/18)

· EARNINGS: Weibo, Toyo Solar, Full Truck Alliance, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Hungarian President-elect Andras Baka takes office after his election by parliament, succeeding the Viktor Orban-allied predecessor, who was ousted less than halfway through his five-year term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion titled "Global Economic Outlook" at the World Economic Forum's International Business Council (IBC) meeting in Geneva, Switzerland. Lagarde’s attendance is expected to prompt renewed speculation she may exit the ECB early.

· UK Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI Output (July)/ PPI Input (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)

· Euro Area Current Account (June)/ Current Account s.a (June)/ CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ ECB

· Italy Current Account (June)

· Russia PPI (July)

· Belarus GDP (July)

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (August)

· Serbia Current Account (June)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (June)

· EARNINGS: Carlsberg

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

Thursday, August 20, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council (UNSC) is scheduled to hold closed consultations to discuss the 90-day report on the work of the 1718 Committee | Security Council - the United Nations (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea Sanctions Committee).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil BCB National Monetary Council Meeting

· Canada New Housing Price Index (July)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/15)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/08)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/15)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Philly Fed Employment (August)/ Philly Fed New Orders (August)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (August)/ CB Leading Index (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/19)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/14)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/20)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/20)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (August)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Activity (June)/ Leading Indicator (July)

· Peru Current Account Q2

· EARNINGS: Walmart, Ross Stores, John Deere, Advanced Auto Parts, Flux Power

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bangladesh holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y (August)/ Loan Prime Rate 5Y (August)

· India Infrastructure Output (July)/ HSBC Composite PMI Flash (August)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (August)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Employment Change (July)/ Full Time Employment Chg (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Part Time Employment Chg (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/14)/ Central Government Debt (July)

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/15)

· Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· EARNINGS: Alibaba, Futu, ATHM, Dago New Energy, AIA

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Hungary – also known as St. Stephen’s Day – commemorating the founding of the Hungarian state and the canonization of its first king, Stephen I. It is a national holiday and financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)/ GfK Consumer Confidence (August)

· Germany PPI (July)

· Euro Area Construction Output (June)/ Labor Cost Index Flash Q2/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

· Slovakia Current Account (June)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

· Greece Current Account (June)

· EARNINGS: Fortescue, Hays

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The annual meeting of the Egyptian-Qatari Joint Higher Committee, co-chaired by Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dr. Badr Abdelatty, is scheduled to be held in El Alamein, Egypt. The meeting will review progress on economic ties, trade, and strategic investments between Egypt and Qatar. It will also seek to coordinate joint diplomatic efforts to de-escalate Middle East tensions, ensure energy security, and maintain freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen gives a speech on The Importance of Independent Central Banks in an Unstable World in Paramaribo, Suriname.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (June)

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, August 21, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (June)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

· USA S&P Global Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMI Flash (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/21)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/21)

· Argentina Retail Sales (June)

· Mexico Retail Sales (June)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate Q2

· EARNINGS: BJ’s

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India's annual Economic Times World Leaders Forum will take place in New Delhi. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the conference as well as a number of major international business leaders including SunLife CEO Kevin Strain, Boston Consulting Group CEO Christoph Schweizer, and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (August)/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (August)/ HSBC Services PMI Flash (August)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/07)/ Deposit Growth (August/07)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/14)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI Flash (August)

· South Korea PPI (July)

· Indonesia Current Account Q2/ M2 Money Supply (July)

· Turkey Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Credit Card Spending (July)

· Japan Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMI Flash (August)

· EARNINGS: Beke, Ping An Insurance

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UK Retail Sales (July)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI Flash (August)/ GfK Consumer Confidence (August)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI Flash (August)

· France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)/ S&P Global Composite/Manufacturing/Services PMI Flash (August)

· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing/Composite/Services PMI Flash (August)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

· Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q2/ Wholesale Prices (July)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (July)

· Poland Business Confidence (August)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ PPI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 22, 2026

Global

· Pope Leo XIV is scheduled to make a half-day visit to the Republic of San Marino. He will then travel on to Rimini, Italy to participate in a “Meeting for Friendship Among Peoples,” an annual Catholic cultural festival.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Construction Cost Index (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 23, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Kazakhstan, legislative elections are held for all 145 seats of their parliament (Kurultai).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

· August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· August 29 – 30: The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

· August 31 – September 1: The G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Asheville, North Carolina.

· September 1 – 2: There will be a G20 Innovation Ministerial held in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

· September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24: Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.

· November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Francis Kelly 8/10/26 Francis Kelly 8/10/26

The Global Week Ahead

Talks To Reopen the Strait of Hormuz Continue, Senior Chinese Officials Gather for Domestic Policy Talks, A New Defense Alliance Forms in the Middle East, and Markets Focus on Inflation Reports

August 9 - 16, 2026

It will be a relatively quiet week ahead geopolitically. Most major capitals are quiet as political leaders and parliaments are out for the August holidays. The one major issue that will continue to keep markets focused is the negotiations between Iran and Oman to establish a temporary framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Iranian leaders made clear this past weekend that for the Strait to reopen, the US must commit to a series of concessions.

For now, the US is not directly part of the talks with Oman and Iran. Those talks are focused on creating a system whereby Iran and Oman would control the entry and exit points for commercial shipping. Iran is reportedly demanding a return to the June 17th Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US, which would give Iran the opportunity to see economic sanctions lifted, ending the naval blockade, and eventually seeing Iran’s frozen assets released. But Iran also wants the US to give Iran compensation for damages caused by the war so far.

But tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are not the only major news coming out of the Middle East. Last week, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey signed a joint mutual defense agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. The pact was created out of a joint sense of concern over how the US-Iran War has impacted their respective economies. While the announcement did not give specifics of what each country was committing or how the pact would develop, it is considered a major move by the three countries for the region. And it will be interesting to see how – if at all – ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi shipping and oil facilities might trigger assistance from Turkey and Pakistan.

Elsewhere, senior Chinese leaders are gathered in Beidaihe (a popular beach resort area on China’s Bohai Sea) for two weeks of discussions on domestic political and economic priorities and concerns – including chronic challenges with the Chinese property market crisis, youth unemployment, industrial overcapacity, and low household consumption.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is a fairly quiet week for economic reports. The big focus will be on inflation reports, the biggest being the US’ July CPI report out on Wednesday. Other major releases this week in the US include the University of Michigan Consumer Survey on Friday as well as the July retail report.

In Europe, the UK sees Q2 GDP figures released on Thursday. And in Asia, China releases inflation data on Sunday, and Japan publishes the Economy Watchers Survey on Monday. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday on interest rates, and the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from its July meeting on Monday.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 9, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Singapore, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 10, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The American Meteorological Society publishes The State of the Climate in 2025, its annual peer-reviewed report on global warming.

· Ecuador celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

· The US Congress is out of session until early September.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· EARNINGS: NuSkin, GoPro, Barrick, Embraer

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions from the last meeting. Japan’s Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Romania Balance of Trade (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Slovakia Industrial Production (June)

· Turkey Industrial Production (June)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

· Greece Industrial Production (June)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Global

· The UN Global Compact Forward Faster Now | APAC Conference 2026 begins in Colombo, Sri Lanka and runs through August 12th. The conference brings together political and business leaders to discuss sustainability issues.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· South Carolina holds a primary vote to pick contenders for the Senate seat formerly held by Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who died last month. Other primary elections are being held in the states of Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook (August/08)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil/ Gasoline Stock Change (August/07)

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Inflation Rate (July)

· México Industrial Production (June)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam’s President To Lam travels to Australia and New Zealand. Talks expected to focus on deepening economic and strategic ties. Building on the Vietnam-Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership established in 2024, the trip is expected to prioritize cooperation in science and technology, innovation, digital transformation and resilient supply chains, while also advancing collaboration in energy, infrastructure, food security, trade, investment and education. Bilateral trade between Vietnam and Australia reached $8.1 billion in the first half of 2026, up nearly 22% from a year earlier.

· Japan celebrates Mountain Day, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates. A press conference follows the meeting.

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

· Kazakhstan PPI (July)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· A Swiss parliamentary committee is expected to make its first recommendation on proposed tougher capital rules for UBS.

· Hungarian legislators meet to appoint a new candidate to the figurehead post of president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)

· Ireland Construction PMI (July)

· Hungary Budget Balance (July)

· Slovakia Construction Output (June)

· Turkey Retail Sales (June)

· Italy Balance of Trade (June)

· Russia Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Chad celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Unemployed Persons Q2/ Manufacturing Production (June)

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Global

· A total solar eclipse visible in Greenland, Iceland, Portugal, Russia and Spain. Partial in most European countries, parts of Canada and northern Africa.

· OPEC publishes its monthly oil market report.

· The International Energy Administration publishes its monthly oil market report.

· The US Agriculture Department releases its monthly WASDE report on world crops production.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/07)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (August/07)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/07/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (August/07)/MBA Purchase Index (August/07)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ CPI s.a (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (August/07)/ WASDE Report/Monthly Budget Statement (July)

· Canada Building Permits (June)

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

· Peru Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Cook Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

· Singapore Current Account Q2/GDP Growth Rate Q2

· China Vehicle Sales (July)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

· India Inflation Rate (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)/31

· EARNINGS: Tokio Marine, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Tencent, Tui Group, Foxconn

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Norway’s sovereign wealth fund – the world’s largest – publishes its half-year reporting for 2026 and its updated list of total holdings

· Germany Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Romania Inflation Rate (July)/ Current Account (June)

· Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Serbia Inflation Rate (July)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (July)/ SACCI Business Confidence (June)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 13, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Austin, Texas, the Democratic National Committee holds its summer meeting. The DNC is expected to vote on the party’s 2028 presidential nominating calendar and a decision on which state will hold the first Democratic primary contest in that election cycle are expected.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at a Greenville Chamber of Commerce event in Greenville, South Carolina.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack participates in a moderated question-and-answer session as part of the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce’s Government Affairs Breakfast Series in Kettering, Ohio.

· Brazil Retail Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)

· USA PPI (July)/ PPI (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/08)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/01)/ PPI (July)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/08)/ PPI (July)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (July)/ PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade (July)/ PPI (July)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/07)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/13)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/13)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/12)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ PPI (July)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent participates in a Reuters NEXT Newsmaker interview in Sydney.

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (May)

· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

· Malaysia Construction Output Q2

· EARNINGS: Hong Kong MTR, CK Hutchison

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK, the Clacton parliamentary by-election in England, triggered by Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s decision to quit as an MP and recontest the seat.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UK RICS House Price Balance (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ GDP 3-Month Avg (June)/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Goods Trade Balance Non-EU (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production /(June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ Construction Orders Q2/ Construction Output (June)/ GDP (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)

· Romania Industrial Production (June)

· Hungary Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (July)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)/Current Account (June)

· Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/07)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (June)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Zambia holds presidential elections. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema is expected to win a second term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

· South Africa Gold Production (June)/Mining Production (June)

Friday, August 14, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Capacity Utilization (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (June)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

· USA Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales Control Group (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (July)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/ Autos (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (August)/ Business Inventories (June)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (August)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (August)/ Michigan Current Conditions (August)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (August)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (June)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/14)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/14)

· Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

· Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

· EARNINGS: Pershing Square

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is set to deliver the annual State of the Nation Address ahead of the country's Independence Day on Aug. 17th. Prabowo will also present the government's macroeconomic assumptions and fiscal policy framework for the proposed 2027 state budget. The address is expected to outline policy priorities in his administration's third year and set out major targets, including projected economic growth and government spending.

· Australia’s Parliamentary Joint Committee on Corporations and Financial Services holds a hearing on ethics and professional accountability at KPMG Australia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives evidence to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics.

· South Korea Import/Export Prices (July)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ Visitor Arrivals (June)

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/08)

· Australia Home Loans Q2/Investment Lending for Homes Q2

· China New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)/Current Account Q2

· Philippines Cash Remittances (June)

· Tawain GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/Current Account Q2/ GDP (July)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/07)

· EARNINGS: JD.com, Hua Hong, China Mobil, Insurance Australia Group, Pan American Silver, Tata Motors, SMIC

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Flash Q2

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)/ Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q2

· Romania Current Account (June)

· Serbia Building Permits (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (July)

· Russia Current Account Q2

· EARNINGS: Adyen, Antofagasta, Maersk, Orsted, PKO Bank Polski, Savills, Standard Bank Thyssenkrupp, Transurban

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon Industrial Production (June)

· Israel Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

Saturday, August 15, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In New Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivers a speech to mark the anniversary of the country’s independence from British rule in 1947.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Car Sales (July)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Liechtenstein celebrates National Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil’s 2026 election campaign season formally begins (the elections are in October).

· Today is Restoration Day in the Dominican Republic, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In Durban, South Africa, the 46th Southern African Development Community (SADC) summit of heads of state and government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
August 29 – 30: The G20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies Meeting, Ashville, North Carolina.
August 31 – September 1: the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, Ashville, North Carolina.
September 1 – 2: There will be a G20 Innovation Ministerial held in Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina.
September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.
September 14 – 16: There will be a G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial held in Houston, Texas.
September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.
September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.
October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.
October 4: Brazil holds general elections.
October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.
October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.
November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.
November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.
December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.
December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Francis Kelly 8/9/26 Francis Kelly 8/9/26

The Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

August 10 - 14, 2026

The Senate Left for August, Hopes of Getting a Deal on the CLARITY Act Got Pushed Until September, And Otherwise, Washington is Collectively on Vacation

Nothing is going on this week. The Senate packed up and left for the rest of August (after shelving efforts to hammer out a deal on the ethics portion of the CLARITY Act until September, when they return). The House of Representatives has been gone for ten days already and will not be back until September, too. There are no major regulatory speeches, conferences, or other events of note this coming week.

We hope you are enjoying the quiet and are on vacation someplace fun. We have three recommended reads for you at the end – not exactly beach reading but pretty good, nonetheless.

Let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The House is in August recess until September 7th.

House of Representatives

· The House is in August recess until September 7th.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Conferences –

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, August 6, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday & Wednesday, August 11 – 12 – SIFMA holds a virtual briefing for members on digital assets and asset management.

· Wednesday, September 9, 12:00 – 6:30 p.m. – The Institute for International Finance in conjunction with the Canadian Bankers Association holds the annual IIF-Canada Forum in Toronto.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Recommended Reads

The new era of finance needs innovation more than consensus CFTC Chair Michael Selig/The Economist
By invitation of The Economist, CFTC Chair Selig wrote an opinion piece on the future of derivative regulation. Selig writes: “For many years, international financial regulation has operated under an assumption that regulatory priorities would emerge through broad consensus among global institutions and regulators from different countries. Although international co-operation remains important, America is not in the business of importing regulatory trends designed by agencies that are considering yesterday’s markets built around limited trading hours, single exchanges and screen-based trading.”
Early Warning Signals in Private Credit? What BDC Portfolios Reveal about Emerging Risks Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Private credit—lending by nonbank financial institutions—has grown to over $1 trillion in the United States, yet most of it remains opaque to investors and policymakers because private credit funds are not required to publish their holdings. Business development companies (BDCs) are an exception and provide a window into this segment of the credit markets. All BDCs are publicly registered investment vehicles that must file periodic reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including quarterly and annual filings. We analyze these disclosures to detect trends in the pricing of BDC loans, borrowers’ creditworthiness, and the industry composition of BDC loan portfolios. The key Takeaways are:
- The share of BDC loans with payment-in-kind usage—borrowers deferring cash interest payments—rose from 6 percent to 10 percent from 2022 to 2026; the sharpest increases were in construction, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade.
- BDC portfolios tend to be concentrated in certain industries: Loans to internet and software companies account for just over 20% of the median portfolio, with wide variation across lenders.
- BDC lending spreads average 4 to 5 percentage points over the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) but have decreased by close to 1 percentage point over the past two years, even as borrowers’ creditworthiness appears to have deteriorated.
- While BDCs use internal models to assign value to their portfolio companies, disclosed valuation metrics predict future BDC stock returns, suggesting that public markets incorporate information from those disclosures.

Financial and Production Integration in the Macroeconomy Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Abstract: This paper studies how integration between the financial sector and production networks shapes business cycle transmission. We develop a dynamic model in which banks provide asset-based financing to firms embedded in supply chains. The model highlights two margins of bank–supply chain integration with opposite macroeconomic implications. Extensive-margin integration—captured by firms’ access to banks specializing in different supply chain segments—amplifies negative banking shocks. By contrast, intensive-margin integration—captured by the diffusion of factoring and invoice discounting—attenuates banking disruptions. The model reveals that the stabilizing effects of integration dominate when firm production linkages are tight. The predictions are consistent with matched bank–firm data from Italy.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/7/26 Francis Kelly 8/7/26

Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The House of Representatives Is Out On Vacation For August and the Senate Is About to Join Them, The Crypto Bill Is Stuck, and Will the Last Regulator Around Please Turn Out the Lights for the Rest of the Month?

August 3 - 7, 2026

Washington got pretty quiet this past week when the House of Representatives adjourned for the August recess. And it is going to get even quieter at the end of this week when the Senate leaves for its break.

There is some hope there will be a breakthrough on the CLARITY Act this week, but we are skeptical. Senate Democrats are not budging from their position demanding tougher ethics provisions (aimed at President Trump and his family's crypto business). Plus, there are several Republicans – including Senator Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) – who are "highly resistant" to moving the bill in its current form.

Plus, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) already has a busy week of bills to deal with, none more important than securing a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government open until December. Thus, it's pretty clear to us the CLARITY Act is about to slide into an already crowded September line-up of "must-do " bills.

There is one congressional hearing of note happening this week – the Senate Banking Committee is holding a hearing looking at ways of helping unlock more capital for "Main Street." SIFMA CEO Ken Bentsen, Sullivan & Cromwell Partner Dalia Bass, and Mike Bass from the US Chamber of Commerce's Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness will testify.

Beyond that, there is not much going on at the regulatory agencies this week. There are no events of note being hosted by trade associations or think tanks, either. What few things we could find happening in the financial regulatory space are below. Let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, August 5, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Exploring Process Approaches for Addressing Social Security Solvency.”

· Thursday, August 6, 10:15 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Empowering Main Street by Unlocking Access to Capital.”

House of Representatives

· The House is in August recess until September 7th.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· Wednesday, August 5, 4:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation 2026 Economic Luncheon in Anchorage, Alaska.

· Thursday, August 6, 5:30 p.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Musalem speaks at the Center for Public Policy Debate.

· Friday, August 7, 10:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually at a National Association for Business Economics Fireside Chat.

Conferences –

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, August 6, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

· Thursday, August 6, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC has announced that the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee meeting held on July 21, 2026, will reconvene virtually today.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/2/26 Francis Kelly 8/2/26

The Global Week Ahead

August 2 - 9, 2026

Trump Calls Off New Attacks on Iran (for now), Venezuela's Government Launches Talks with Opposition Leaders, Colombia Gets a New President, and It Will Be Another Big Earnings Week

In the Northern Hemisphere, the Dog Days of Summer are quickly taking hold as most major political leaders and parliaments (as well as business executives) flee for holiday break. But there is still a good amount of geopolitical activity this week markets should pay close attention to – with Iran again dominating the spotlight.

Following weeks of back-and-forth attacks by the US and Iran, President Trump ordered a new set of heavy strikes on Iran Friday. However, late Saturday, he canceled those planned attacks, saying Saudi Arabia and Iran have asked him to hold up, and with Iran apparently indicating the "perimeter of a deal" with the US (but Iran has not publicly confirmed this apparent request). This is all extremely fast-moving and likely to be a "two steps forward, one step back" series of events for weeks – if not months – ahead.

Meanwhile, this weekend Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez sat down with opposition leaders Jorge Rodriguez, who represents the opposition in the National Assembly, and Dinorah Figuera, who represents a bloc of opposition groups (not present was opposition. The talks aim to see if the country can begin to map out a path to national elections. But complicating the talks is a split within the opposition as to when and how those elections should take place. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated the US is very involved in brokering the talks. No timeline has been set for completion of the talks.

Also this coming week, Peru will inaugurate a new president, conservative lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella. But it is going to be something of a messy event as outgoing President Gustavo Petro not only refuses to attend (citing unproven allegations the election was stolen) but he also blocked Espriella's effort – which broke with tradition of being sworn into office in the capital, Bogotá – to have it take place at a military base in Cauca (Espriella wanted it there to emphasize his political message of decentralizing the government as well as his focus on security and anti-narcoterrorism).

Instead, the swearing-in will take place in Cali. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Argentine President Javier Milei, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa (all ideologically/politically aligned with Espriella) will be in attendance. There are expected to be large demonstrations in Cali against Espriella, with a resulting 11,000-plus police officers being deployed for the event.

We also want to note that while August is typically quiet in Washington, two major trade issues are coming up in the coming weeks. First, US-Canadian trade relations are set to take another hit on August 19th with the implementation of US Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods, overriding USMCA protections). All this looms as Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc was in Washington this past week for his first in-person meetings with US Trade Representative Jamison Greer to negotiate the next iteration of the USMCA/CUSA.

However, President Trump told Fox News on July 28th that he has "no interest" in preserving USMCA/CUSA. But Trump is facing growing pressure from Republican members of Congress in battleground states – especially farm states and Canadian border states – to renew the trade deal or risk them losing their seats in November. We expect a fair number of discussions between Ontario and Washington over the coming month, which may turn the curve more positively toward a deal.

Secondly, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Greer held a call with Vice Premier He Lifeng this past Thursday. The call was the most senior contact between Beijing and Washington since May. Beijing is pushing back hard on new US forced-labor tariffs as both sides are jockeying ahead of a still-undated September Xi-Trump reciprocal visit to Washington. The US-China tariff truce itself runs through November 10th.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is going to be a very heavy corporate earnings week around the world. OPEC+ meets on production output Sunday. And we would note there are virtually no major central bank speeches this coming week aside from Fed Governor Lisa Cook's speech in Alaska on Wednesday.

In the US, the major economic report of the week will be the July jobs report out on Friday. Also, out this week in the US are the July ISM manufacturing index on Monday, the JOLTS report on Tuesday, the ADP report and ISM services index on Wednesday, and Q2 productivity reports on Thursday.

In Asia this week, China's private July PMI report is out on Monday, as is the July manufacturing report. Markets will also get China's July trade data on Friday. The Bank of Japan releases minutes from its June meeting on Wednesday, and markets will also get June labor cash earnings on Wednesday and household spending on Friday.

Finishing up in Europe, Germany releases retail sales and PMIs (Monday), factory orders and PMIs (Wednesday), industrial production Thursday, and trade data (Friday). Aside from that, it is a quiet week in Europe.

Below is our detailed report on major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:

Sunday, August 2, 2026

Global

· The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting takes place to evaluate and decide output targets.

Americas

· Political/Social Events –

· Talks between Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodríguez's interim government and the 2015 National Assembly (led by Dinorah Figuera) begin this weekend, aimed at rebuilding democratic institutions and eventually setting a path to elections.

· Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australia’s royal Air Force will host Exercise Pitch Black, military air combat drills involving 20 countries, through Aug. 7th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Artificial Intelligence Act full provisions come into force.

· North Macedonia celebrates Republic Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

· Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 3, 2026

Global

· Danish Ambassador Christina Markus Lassen, Permanent Representative of Denmark to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month of August, will give a briefing on the Dane’s policy priorities.

Americas

· Political/Social Events –

· The US House of Representatives are out of session until September 1st. The US Senate goes out for their August recess this coming Friday.

· The USS George Washington carrier group will conclude its port of call to Da Nang, Vietnam. This was a rare visit for a US Naval ship (only the fourth time since the US and Vietnam reestablished relations in 1995). It was meant to signal reassurances to Vietnam of the importance of the relationship of the two nations and to signal to China the US’ intention to remain a major military factor in the region.

· In California, a court hearing is scheduled to take place as part of a lawsuit brought by 12 states (led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta), attempting to prevent the merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros Discovery. The states argue that the move would “extinguish competition” and lead to fewer choices and higher prices for consumers due to the new company’s significant market power. Paramount has said the states’ case is “without merit”

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canadian financial markets are closed for the Civic Holiday.

· Mexico Business Confidence (July)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ISM Manufacturing Employment (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (July)/Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (July)

· EARNINGS: Palantir, Marriott, Clorox, Snap, Tyson Foods

Asia

· Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam’s 16th National Assembly will convene in its first extraordinary session through August 24th in Hanoi. Lawmakers will deliberate on 33 total agenda items, aiming to pass 15 draft laws and 4 resolutions while reviewing major national infrastructure and policy initiatives. These include deciding on investment policies for the Ring Road 5 project in the Hanoi capital region and adjustments for the Lao Cai–Hanoi–Hai Phong railway project. Additionally, they will consider resolutions for renewable energy project bottlenecks, matters concerning the Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Plant project, and the integration of four national target programs into a single framework.

· Thai Prime Minister Anutin is scheduled to have a two-day visit to Indonesia. He and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto are expected to tighten cooperation on several areas such as security, transnational crime, trade and investment, food and energy security, and people-to-people relations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (June)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (July)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/Balance of Trade (July)/Foreign Direct Investment (July)/Industrial Production July)/Inflation Rate (July)/Retail Sales (July)/Tourist Arrivals (July)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (July)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· EARNINGS: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Daiwa Securities, Itochu, Nissan, WuXi AppTec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Joint Summer Congress of CIOR, CIOMR, and CISOR takes place in Bucharest, Romania through August 7th. (CIOR: Interallied Confederation of Reserve Officers, CIOMR: Interallied Confederation of Reserve Medical Officers, CISOR: Interallied Confederation of Reserve Non-Commissioned Officers).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Retail Sales (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (June)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (July)/PPI (July)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)

Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Canada, the Foreign Influence Transparency and Accountability Act (FITAA) enters into force. The new law creates a new publicly accessible registry to bring transparency to foreign influence activities directed at Canadian political and governmental processes, and potentially impacting companies operating in Canada that have a connection to a foreign state. The Act applies broadly to individuals and entities that have arrangements with a foreign principal to influence a political or government process in Canada.

· Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Washington State, and Virginia hod congressional primary elections. The Democratic Senate primary race is shaping up to likely be a major indicator as to whether Democrats might take control of the US Senate in November – and in many respects, what the future of the Democratic Party looks like. Democratic Socialists Dr. Abdul El-Sayed is pitted against Representative Haley Stevens in a tough battle for the Democratic nomination. El-Sayed is up in several polls over Stevens. But most observers believe if El-Sayed wins, he cannot beat the Republican nominee, former Representative Mike Rogers. Additionally, El-Sayed and Stevenson are at strong odds over US policy toward Israel should be, with El-Sayed questioning Israel’s right to exist and accusing Stevens of being in Israel’s back pocket.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August)/01/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ Factory Orders (June)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (June)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (August)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/31)/Total Vehicle Sales (July)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Colombia Exports (June)

· EARNINGS: SpaceX, AMD, Caterpillar, Merck & Co., Amgen, McDonald’s, Gilead Sciences, Phizer, Spotify, Cummins, Marathon Petroleum, Apollo, Archer Daniel Midland, Booking Holdings, Caterpillar, Diamondback Energy, Duke Energy, Emerson Electric, Gilead Sciences, Kimberly-Clark, Marathon Petroleum, SpaceX, Spotify, Suncor, Sysco

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (July)

· Japan Monetary Base

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)/ Household Spending (June)/ Commodity Prices (July)

· Thailand Business Confidence (July)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/Wholesale Prices (July)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (June)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (July)

· EARNINGS: Toyota, Mitsubishi Heavy Industry, Mitsui & Co., Grab

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In London, members of the App Drivers and Couriers Union to protest outside the London offices of self-driving vehicle business Waymo, opposing the rollout of the company’s driverless cars across the British capital.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Spain New Car Sales (July)/Unemployment Change (July)

· Italy New Car Registrations (July)/Retail Sales (June)

· Romania PPI (June)

· France Budget Balance (June)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

· UK New Conventional Gilt 2032

· EARNINGS: HSBC, BP, Bayer, Domino’s Pizza (UK), Hugo Boss, Lufthansa, Saudi Aramco, Smith & Nephew, Travis Perkins

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The US and Lebanon are scheduled to hold the next round of US-mediated talks in Rome, Italy over the future of Israeli forces in Lebanon and the Lebanese Army disarming Hezbollah.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon PPI (June)

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)/S&P Global PMI (July)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Global

· The BRICS Education Track Meetings take place through August 7th in New Delhi. Education Ministers from BRICS member states will gather to discuss educational policy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia celebrates Independence Day.

· Tennessee holds statewide primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation 2026 Economic Luncheon in Anchorage, Alaska.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/31)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/31)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/31)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/31)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/31)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services Business Activity (July)/ ISM Services Employment (July)/ ISM Services New Orders (July)/ ISM Services Prices (July)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/31)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (May))/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Columbia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· EARNINGS: Eli Lilly, SanDisk, Western Digital, Walt Disney, Shopify, Uber, CVS Health, McKesson, Infineon, Phillis 66, DoorDash, Honeywell Aerospace, Occidental Petroleum, eBay, Kraft Heinz, Block, Brookfield Asset Management, Carlye Group, Honeywell Aerospace, Iron Mountain, Manulife Financial, Motorola, Next, the New York Times Company, News Corp, Prudential Financial,

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan will hold its annual Han Kuang military exercises through Aug. 14th. The drills will test relocating weapons production lines and converting civilian factories for military use ‌in annual drills next month, aiming to sustain combat operations if Chinese attacks hit supply hubs.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· New Zealand Employment Change/ Unemployment Rate/ Labour Costs Index/ Labour Costs Index/ Participation Rate/Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August/04)

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (July)/ Ai Group Construction Index (July)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/S&P Global Services PMI (July)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/BoJ JGB Purchase

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (July)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (July)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (July)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (July)

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ HSBC Composite PMI (July)/ HSBC Services PMI (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July/31)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· EARNINGS: Cathy Pacific, Honda, Suzuki Motor

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· France New Car Registrations (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)

· Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

· UK New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)

· Serbia PPI (July)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· EARNINGS: Novo Nordisk, Siemens Energy, Glencore, Fresenius, Sandoz, Deutsche Post, Ibstock, Legal & General, Royal London, Thompson Reuters

Middle East

· Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UAE S&P Global PMI (July)

Africa

· Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

Thursday, August 6, 2026

Global

· The 2nd BRICS Anti-Corruption Working Group meeting takes place in Hyderabad, India through August 5th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia’s President Rodrigo Paz to deliver his first State of the Nation address.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Center for Public Policy Debate (CDPP) in Brazil.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/01)/ Nonfarm Productivity/ Unit Labour Costs/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August/01)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/31)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (August/06)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/06)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/05)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (July)

· Canada S&P Global Composite PMI (July)/ S&P Global Services PMI (July)

· Columbia PPI (July)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: ConocoPhillips, Constellation Energy, Cloudflare, Datadog, Airbnb, Warner Brothers Discover, Liberty Media, Lyft, MetLife, Petrobas, Ralph Lauren, Rocket Companies

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Myanmar leader Min Aung Hlaing is scheduled to visit Thailand. The Myanmar leader is set to meet Anutin to seek ways to tackle pollution in the Kok River, a tributary of the Mekong that runs 285 kilometers through Myanmar and northern cities in Thailand. The two leaders are also expected to discuss cross-border trade and regional security issues.

· Today is the anniversary of the first atomic bomb used in war on Hiroshima in 1945.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (June)

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/01)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Private House Approvals (June)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

· EARNINGS: SoftBank, Nintendo

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (July)

· Germany Factory Orders (June)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

· Romania Retail Sales (June)

· Hungary Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· France Private Non-Farm Payrolls/ S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

· Spain Industrial Production (June)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)

· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

· UK S&P Global Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/31)

· EARNINGS: Siemens, DBS, Deutsche Telekom, Zurich Insurance, Generali, Merck KgaA, Rheinmetall, Swiss Re, Diageo, Commerzbank, Swisscom, Sempra, WPP

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, August 7, 2026

Global

· New York Federal Reserve’s World Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (July)/ FAO Food Price Index (July)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Abelardo de la Espriella will be sworn in as Colombia’s new president. However, since outgoing President Petro is refusing to allow the inauguration in the capital, Bogotá, because he is still refusing to acknowledge the election outcome, the swearing-in will take place in Cali. There will be a heavy international attendance including Spain's King Felipe VI, Argentine President Javier Milea, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, Paraguayan President Santiago Peña, Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Petro and allied political parties are saying they won't attend and instead are organizing demonstrations in Cali, which is a political stronghold of theirs.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Barkin speaks at National Association for Business Economics event.

· Chile Inflation Rate (July)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI

· Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Full Time Employment Chg (July)/ Part Time Employment Chg (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Wages (July)/ Ivey PMI s.a (July)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Earnings (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Weekly Hours (July)/ Government Payrolls (July)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (July)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (July)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (July)/ Used Car Prices (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/07)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)

· Brazil Car Production (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

· Argentina Industrial Production (June)

· EARNINGS: AIG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· New Zealand's regulated three-month election period will begin ahead of November polls.

· The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency is set to launch an H3 rocket.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

· Philippines GDP Growth Rate

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)/ Balance of Trade Yuan (July)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Property Price Index

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (July)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· India Bank Loan Growth (July/24)/ Deposit Growth (July/24)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/31)

· EARNINGS: Japan Post Bank, Kosan, UOB, OCBC

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· UK Lloyds House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (July)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Unemployment Rate

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Greece Balance of Trade (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (July)

· EARNINGS: Allianz, Munich Re, Banca Monte Dei Pashi di Siena

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Saturday, August 8, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Hawaii holds statewide primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (July)

· Kazakhstan Current Account

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Sunday, August 9, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Singapore, a national holiday celebrating the country’s independence.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead

August 7 – Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is sworn into office.
August 27 – 29: The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.
September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.
September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.
September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· September 24 – Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to visit Washington, DC for bilateral meetings with President Trump.

October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.
October 4: Brazil holds general elections.
October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand.
October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election is to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.
November 9 – 20: The United Nation’s COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.
November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.
December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Global Week Ahead

Does Iran Have A Treasury Market Strategy?

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