Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 7/5/26 Francis Kelly 7/5/26

The Global Week Ahead

July 5 - 12, 2026

Turkey Hosts the NATO Summit, Iran Buries the Ayatollah as Talks Sputter Along, Trump Calls Putin To Spark New Ukraine War Peace Talks, and a Quiet Economic Data Week as Central Banks Reprice Inflation

The dominant geopolitical event this week will be the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio last month stated the meeting “is probably one of the most important in NATO’s history.” A key focus of the meeting is how NATO members intend to meet the 5% of GDP defense spending target by 2035. Each country is expected to table a concrete national plan, while several countries are expected to hit the 5% goal well before 2035; others are struggling to find a way.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has explicitly promised “tens of billions of dollars” in new defense contracts will be announced at the Summit, alongside a Transatlantic NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge and Defense Production Action Plan targeting shortfalls in ammunition, air/missile defense, and long-range weapons.

Running concurrently with the Summit will be the NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum, which will stress an “industrial revolution” taking place in the defense industry, focused on drone warfare, critical raw materials (and the building of a NATO supply-chain framework in parallel with US and other allied commercial critical mineral security efforts.

But the real subtext of the Summit will be the tensions and fractures that emerged in the alliance when President Trump launched the Iran War. Whether leaders can paper over internal splits will be the summit’s critical challenge. Recall that at the beginning of the war, France criticized the US decision to strike Iran and pain refused US basing for the operations. President Trump criticized other NATO members for not “doing their fair share” in helping in the war. All of this comes in the wake of reports this past week that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth presented a plan to substantially reduce US military forces in Europe (but was blocked and forced to conduct a force posture review over the coming six months instead).

The Ukraine War and efforts to get peace talks back on track will also be on the agenda. President Trump called Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 4th, during which they spoke for 90 minutes. Trump then called Ukrainian President Volodymyr to discuss ways to get the peace talks back on track. Trump is now expected to meet with Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO Summit. However, there are reports that the US is now pressing Ukraine to cede the Donbas to Russia as an incentive to secure a peace deal.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran peace talks have been paused as Iran continues carrying out its six-day funeral procession for slain Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (which concludes July 9th). The event is seen by the Iranian government as a means to rally national unity and sympathy abroad. This coming week, his body will be transported to Iraq, where it will pass through Shia holy sites before returning to Iran for burial on Thursday. Representatives from more than 100 countries have traveled to Iran to participate in the ceremony.

Also this week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Indonesia, New Zealand, and Australia for bilateral meetings covering mutual security, trade, and investment. While in New Zealand, Modi is expected to discuss advancing a free trade agreement. India and Australia concluded a free trade deal in February.

Modi’s trip comes as China’s Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, travels to Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and Norway to improve trade and investment opportunities. China works closely with Denmark on shipbuilding and is now seeking a deal with Finland on shipbuilding, green energy, and infrastructure.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar, it will be a light week for major economic reports. Markets are awaiting minutes from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank from their respective June meetings.

In the US, the June ISM services index is out on Monday. IN Europe, the Bank of England publishes its financial stability report on Tuesday. Germany’s factory orders report is out Monday, industrial production on Tuesday, and trade balance on Thursday.

In Asia, China’s June inflation figures – both CPI and PPI – are out on Thursday. And in Japan, the Economy Watchers Survey is out on Wednesday, and the PPI on Friday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Global

· The OPEC+ meeting will be held virtually. The group is expected to agree to another 411,000 b/d crude quota increase for August at the meeting, as it capitalizes on seasonal demand to bring barrels back to market.

· The UN will host the inaugural session of the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance in Geneva, Switzerland through July 7th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The CARICOM Heads of Government Meeting takes place in Saint Lucia.

· Venezuela celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when in 1811 Spanish rule was thrown off.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will meet with Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Ankara in advance of the NATO Summit.

· Valiant Shield, a joint-military exercise of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, takes place in Guam.

· Japan’s Shiga province holds gubernatorial elections. While considered a minor election, it is closely watched as an indicator of the strength of the ruling LDP Party.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia celebrates Independence Day.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Employment and Social Affairs Ministers through July 6th in Ballina, County Mayo, Ireland.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The funeral process for slain Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei continues this week through July 9th. The six-day funeral now moves from Tehran, Iran across the border to the Shia holy sites in Iraq: Qom, Najaf, Karbala, and Mashhad. The procession then returns to Mashad, Iran for the burial.

· Algeria celebrates Independence Day. More than 30 countries have sent representatives to the funeral process including China, Pakistan, and, surprisingly, a delegation from Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 6, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate and House of Representatives are out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates on a policy panel at the

Closing Conference of the European System of Central Banks Research Network on Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World, Rome, Italy.

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (April)

· USA NY Fed Bill Purchases 4 to 12 months/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services Business Activity (June)/ ISM Services Employment (June)/ ISM Services New Orders (June)/ ISM Services Prices (June)

· Canada S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey/ BoC Survey of Consumer Expectations

· Brazil Balance of Trade (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Columbia PPI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The second impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte gets underway, threatening her vow to run in the 2028 presidential election. A previous attempt at impeachment was blocked by the Supreme Court due to a technicality.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Indonesia through Wednesday, followed by trips to Australia and New Zealand through Saturday. Modi is due to hold talks with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, with critical minerals set to be high on the agenda, and address members of the Indian diaspora in Jakarta.

· The Asia-Pacific Digital Economy Forum will be held in Hong Kong through July 7th.

· The ASEAN+3 Bond Market Forum is held in Japan through July 10th.

· Today is Capital City Day in Kazakhstan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (June)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (June)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (June)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (June)

· Tawain Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets Norway’s Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store in Oslo, Norway. Wang will also travel on to meet with the foreign ministers of Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.

· Paris Haute Couture Week begins, with leading fashion houses unveiling their fall/winter couture collections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an on-stage conversation at 15th anniversary event of Financi’Elles in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs a policy panel at the Closing Conference of the ESCB Research Network on Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World (ChaMP) in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane was scheduled to give a dinner speech – which will now be delivered by Philipp Hartmann, Deputy Director General Economics - at Closing Conference of the ESCB Research Network on Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World (ChaMP) in Rome, Italy.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will participate panel at the Royal Economic Society 2026 conference ‘Trusted, accessible and connected? The future of UK economic data’ in London.

· Germany Factory Orders ((May))/ S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

· Romania Retail Sales ((May))

· Hungary Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (May)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (June)

· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ PPI (May)

· France S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

· Italy S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

· UK New Car Sales (June)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

· Serbia PPI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Comoros National Day, a national holiday.

· Today is Heroes’ Day in Zambia, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Global

· The 2026 NATO Summit begins in Ankara, Turkey and runs through Wednesday. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called “probably one of the most important” in the organization’s history. Apart from its 32 members, Ukraine will attend along with four of NATO’s Indo-Pacific partner states -- Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand as well as Middle East partners Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

· Running alongside the NATO Summit will be the NATO-sponsored Defense industry Forum. The Forum is the premier high-level event on transatlantic defence production, investment and innovation. The Forum brings together senior NATO, Allied and partner officials, industry leaders, and the communities responsible for driving forward industry and innovation to discuss its most pressing issues. This year, the Forum will focus on Allied progress towards reaching NATO’s historic 5% defense investment plan, and on how this money is being put into action to generate increased defense production, cooperation and joint procurement, all in the service of generating stronger industrial deterrence for the Alliance.

· The UN’s High-Level Political Forum on Sustainable Development begins in New York.

· The UN Security Council is expected to receive a briefing from representatives of the International Criminal Court on Sudan.

· The 5th The fifth United Nations Chiefs of Police Summit (UNCOPS 2026) will take place at United Nations Headquarters in New York through July 8th.

· The OECD Employment Outlook is released.

· The UN Trade and Development World Investment Report is released.

· The International Energy Agency’s Quarterly Gas Market Report is Released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer holds a hearing on proposed measures related to forced-labor import enforcement. The hearing is in advance of implementation of Section 301 tariffs on countries by the US. Click HERE for the full agenda. Countries being examined include: Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, Mexico, Peru, Jordan, India, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Korea, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Allen & Company’s annual tech conference in Sun Valley, Idaho begins. Among the expected attendings are Apple CEO Tim Cook, Amazon Chair Jeff Bezos, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Others also expected to attend include Paramount CEO David Ellison, the Murdochs, and Bob Iger.

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Redbook (July/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (July/03)

· Mexico Auto Exports (June)/ Auto Production (June)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/Ivey PMI s.a (June)

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· Brazil Car Production (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (June)

· Columbia Inflation Rate (June)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: MSC Industrial Direct, Enerpac Tool Group

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the Solomon Islands, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (May)/ Average Cash Earnings (May)/ Overtime Pay (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Tawain Inflation Rate (June)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The French Court of Appeal will rule on Marine Le Pen’s challenge to a ban on running for public office, imposed after her conviction over the misuse of European Parliament funds.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyden will attend the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey. She will also deliver a speech at the plenary session of the NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum, together with the Secretary-General of NATO, Mark Rutte.

· The Running of the Bulls takes place in Pamplona, Spain.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of England publishes their Financial Stability Report – July 2026 and Financial Policy Committee Record – July 2026. A press conference following publication of the FSR will be held in the Bank and can be watched virtually.

· The UK’s Office of Budget Responsibility releases its Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report 2026.

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine Mann will participate on a panel at the Royal Economic Society 2026 conference ‘The challenges and opportunities of leadership in economics and the wider economy” in London.

· Germany Industrial Production (May)

· UK Halifax House Price Index (June)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (June)

· France Current Account (May)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· UK BBA Mortgage Rate (June)/ BoE Financial Stability Report

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Saba Saba Day in Tanzania, a national holiday marking the unification of the country .

· Zambia celebrates Unity Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ S&P Global PMI (June)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Global

· The IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update is released.

· The UN Security Council is expected to hold an open debate on Women and peace and Security [CRSV]: Honoring the promise of international law to survivors of conflict-related sexual violence

· The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (June) is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Saudi Arabia through July 10th . It is the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister to the kingdom in 26 years. Carney will meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the agenda includes bilateral cooperation on energy, critical minerals, infrastructure, and defense.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve releases the minutes from the June FMOC meeting.

· Costco releases its closely watched June sales results.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/03)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (July/03)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/03)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (July/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/03)/ Used Car Prices (June)/ Wholesale Inventories (May)/Gasoline Stocks Change (July/03)/ Consumer Credit Change (May)

· Brazil Retail Sales (May)

· Chile Inflation Rate (June)

· Columbia Exports (May)

· Argentina Industrial Production (May)

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Peru Balance of Trade (May)

· EARNINGS: Levi Strauss

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Asia Development Bank publishes the latest edition of its outlook for the region, which will be the first one capturing the economic fallout of the Iran War on the region.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Australian Conference of Economists in Canberra.

· Italian bank UniCredit will announce the results of its extended offer to buy Germany’s Commerzbank’s shares.

· South Korea Current Account (May)

· Japan Current Account (May)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (June)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (June)

· Australia RBA Hunter Speech/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/07)/Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (June)/

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President von der Leyen, together with President of the European Council António Costa, will have a working dinner hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (May)

· Greece Balance of Trade (May)

· UK Conventional Gilt

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Argentina, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in keynote moderated discussion before “The Future of Market Liquidity and Functioning” Workshop hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Dallas Federal Reserve Board President Lorie Logan will also speak as well as Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden.

· Mexico Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July/04)/ Fed Williams Speech/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ Existing Home Sales (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/03)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/09)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/09)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/08)

· El Salvador PPI (June)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: PepsiCo, Progressive, Cintas, Washington Federal, Cogeco Cable, Richelieu Hardware, Arizia

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The island nation of Palau celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (June)

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/04)

· China Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (May)

· Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Tawain Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)

· EARNINGS: Tata Consultancy Services (IN), Fast Retailing (JPN), Seven & I (JPN)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels ahead of the EU Economic and Financial Affair Council meeting tomorrow. Ministers will discuss fiscal policy coordination, the international role of the Euro, and the Eurogroup work program.

· The UK’s Labour Party leadership nominations open following Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in June announcing his intention to resign.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank publishes an account of their June monetary policy meeting.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor will be part of a panel at the New York Fed and Chicago Booth School of Business conference on monetary policy implementation and market functioning ‘The future of clearing and settlement’ in New York.

· UK RICS House Price Balance (June)

· Hungary Budget Balance (June)

· Euro Area Eurogroup Meeting

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Slovakia Industrial Production (May)

· Greece Harmonized Inflation Rate June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/03)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (June)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (June)

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (May)

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, July 10, 2026

Global

· The International Energy Agency’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Iraqi Prime Minister-designate Ali al-Zaid may meet with President Trump in Washington (TDB). The purpose of the meeting is to strengthen economic and trade ties.

· Today is Independence Day in the Bahamas, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Inflation Rate (June)

· Mexico Industrial Production (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Full Time Employment Chg (June)/ Part Time Employment Chg (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Wages (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/10)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/10)

· EARNINGS: Delta Airlines, Hyatt Hotels

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (May)

· Japan PPI (June)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (June)/ Car Sales (June)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· India Bank Loan Growth (June/26)/ Deposit Growth (June/26) Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/03)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss market integration and supervision package, the Irish presidency work program for the next six months, they will vote to adopt a decision and make a recommendation under the excessive deficit procedure, and to endorse a revised medium-term fiscal structural plan. The will also discuss the impact of the Ukraine War and Iran War and adopt implementing decisions approving modified recovery and resilience plans, submitted by member states.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central bank Board Vice President Boris Vujčić participates on a panel discussion entitled “The Global Economy in 2026 and Beyond – Financing Europe and Greece’s Future” at the 30th Annual Economist Roundtable in Athens, Greece.

· Germany Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Romania Balance of Trade (May)

· France Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia Construction Output (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Turkey Industrial Production (May)

· Italy Industrial Production (May)

· Greece Industrial Production (May)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (June)

· Russia Inflation Rate (June)

· EARNINGS: MJ Gleason (UK)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 11, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Malaysia’s State of Johor, voters head to the polls on Saturday to elect all 56 members of the state assembly, with 172 candidates contesting what is shaping up to be Malaysia’s most closely watched election this year. While the outcome will determine the next state government, not affecting the current federal government, the result will also be seen as a key barometer of support for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s unity government and could influence whether the ruling coalition seeks an early general election ahead of a February 2028 deadline.

· Mongolia celebrate the Naadam Holiday commemorating the country’s independence and featuring archery, horseracing and wrestling contests.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Vehicle Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kazakhstan PPI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day for the island nation of Kiribati.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· July 14 – 17: The 2026 Aspen Security Forum in Aspen, Colorado.

· July 23: The 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum takes place in Manila, the Philippines.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

· September 31 – August 1: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Ashville, North Carolina.

· September (exact dates TBD): The BRICS Summit in New Delphi, India.

· September 22 – 29: The UN General Assembly is held in New York.

· October (exact date TBD): Israel holds legislative elections.

· October 4: Brazil holds general elections.

· October 12 – 18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held.

· October 30 – 31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
November 3: The US Midterm election are held. All members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.

· November 9 – 20: COP31 will be held in Turkey.

· November 18 – 19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.

· December 14 – 15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.

Francis Kelly 6/28/26 Francis Kelly 6/28/26

The Global Week Ahead

The US and Iran Negotiations Suspended as Fighting Resumes, Japan’s Prime Minister Goes to India, the First Tri-Lateral USMC Negotiations Begin, and Central Bankers Gather in Portugal

June 28 - July 5, 2026

The Iran War appears to be back on as US and Iranian military action escalated in the last two days following Iran’s attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. US Forces conducted strikes against Iranian missile, drone, and radar facilities following an Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, shattering the Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 18th.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded to the US attack with ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the US Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. The IRGC has now threatened to halt “all ongoing diplomatic processes,” hardening Tehran’s posture and likely seeking to recalibrate its negotiating leverage. Technical negotiations were expected to begin this week in Luzerne, Switzerland, after last week’s signing of a memorandum of understanding, but appear to have been canceled.

Additionally, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran will exercise sole management and oversight of the Strait of Hormuz for the next 30 days before allowing full traffic to resume. What happens next is anyone’s guess, as Oman and Qatar are trying to de-escalate the fighting and get the negotiations back on track. We see Iran’s strike on the ship as strangely self-defeating, as Iran was beginning to benefit from the US lifting sanctions on Iran’s selling and shipping oil.

All this comes as Israel and Lebanon implement a new framework agreement (along with the US) establishing the Military Coordination Group for Lebanon (MCG4L). The framework requires the Israeli Defense Forces to make a partial pullback from “pilot zones” in Lebanon - sequenced Israeli withdrawals linked to the Lebanese Army deploying in their place, along with Hezbollah disarming.

However, Hezbollah has rejected the deal as “null and void. They have already begun blocking streets in southern Beirut with burning tires. We are watching to see if the Israeli pilot zone withdrawals trigger Hezbollah military responses and attacks on Israeli forces and Israel itself. Additionally, there is concern over whether the Lebanese Army deployment will proceed on schedule.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is making an important trip to India this week to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the 16th annual leaders’ summit. Takaichi is seeking to build stronger cooperation between the two countries on a host of economic security issues, including critical mineral and energy supplies. Perhaps more importantly, Takaichi is seeking to strengthen defense cooperation between the two nations to deter potential Chinese threats to key shipping straits critical to both India and Japan.

Closer to home, the US, Mexico, and Canada will meet virtually on July 1st for the first time to conduct a trilateral meeting on the USMCA. Without an agreement, the USMCA would go into annual reviews. This is the first mandatory joint review under USMCA’s sunset/review provision—a mechanism without precedent in prior U.S. trade agreements. A successful joint review is critical in order to shore up confidence in the agreement and the broader trilateral economic relationship. will use the session to establish working groups and timelines for deeper negotiations through the end of 2026.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be listening carefully to the European Central Bank’s Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal. This will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh’s first public event internationally and second overall public appearance.

In the US, labor market data will be the main focus of markets this week. The May JOLTS report is out Tuesday, the June ADP on Wednesday, and the US federal jobs report on Thursday. Also out this week is the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index and the ISM manufacturing index.

In Asia this week, China reports June PMIs on Tuesday and Japan releases May retail sales on Monday and industrial production on Tuesday.

And in Europe this week, the Eurozone’s CPI flash estimate is out on Tuesday (the headline indicator most watched by the ECB for monetary policy decisions), and the June manufacturing PMIs are out on Wednesday. Germany, France, and Italy release CPI data on Tuesday. The UK publishes its bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys on Thursday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, June 28, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The great comic genius Mel Brooks turns 100 years old. And he has a new movie coming out in 2027: Spaceballs: the New One

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA Fed Barkin Speech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· New Caledonia holds parliamentary elections.

· Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, will hold a gubernatorial election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)

· Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO’s Parliamentary Summit is held in Istanbul, Turkey.

· Ukraine celebrates Constitution Day, a national holiday.

· The United Russia Party held its annual convention. President Vladimir Putin wished the party good luck in the election, calling the electoral process a test of strength for the political system. During the congress, party leader Dmitry Medvedev proposed including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin in the federal top five candidates. Also happening today, the Rodina party’s election convention took place, at which the party list was approved, comprising 15 people headed by Aleksey Zhuravlyov, as well as candidates for single-mandate constituencies.

· Likely incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is scheduled to give a major economic speech in Manchester outlining his agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

The new Israel-Lebanon Framework Deal which was signed on June 26th goes into effect. The deal is aimed at paving the way for an eventual peace deal between the two long-time Middle East adversaries. The agreement includes a pilot effort in which Lebanese soldiers take control of some small areas currently held by Israeli troops, as well as a process aimed at disarming the Hezbollah terror group. However, Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire deal, saying it calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from south Lebanon as a precondition. The implementation of the framework is beginning this week with initial IDF withdrawals from pilot zones north and south of the Litani River.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 29, 2026

Global

· The United Nations 4th Counter-Terrorism Week takes place in New York through July 2nd. ministers and heads of national counter-terrorism agencies, as well as regional organizations, United Nations Global Counter-Terrorism Coordination Compact entities, civil society organizations, victims of terrorism, women- and youth-led organizations, academia and the private sector.

· In Bangkok, Thailand, the 7th Global Conference on Climate and SDG Synergies will take place from 29-30 June. The event is co-organized by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in partnership with the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).

· The International Energy Agency holds its 11th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency in Montreal, Canada through June 30th.

· The UN Security Council will meet to discuss the situation in the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Supreme Court is expected to issue the final decisions of its term on cases including whether President Donald Trump can restrict birthright citizenship and whether he can oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. Decisions on Monday and potentially another day this week.

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul is set to meet with Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington. They will discuss the situation in the Middle East and prep for the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey July 7th.

· The US Senate is out of session for a two-week break. The US House of Representatives is in session until Thursday and out of session the following week.

· The 2026 Mercosur Presidential Summit and associated meetings of the Common Market Council will be held in Asunción, Paraguay through July 30th. The summit focuses on advancing the bloc’s external trade agenda and follows the historic signing of the sweeping EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement in January. The main focus will be on the internal distribution of export quotas from the historic EU-Mercosur trade agreement. According to recent statements from Uruguay’s Foreign Minister Mario Lubetkin, quota distribution among member states will dominate much of the debate. The EU trade deal entered provisional force on May 1, 2026, after more than 25 years of negotiations, with tariff reductions covering 95% of Mercosur products and 91% of EU products.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Bank Lending (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ IGP-M Inflation (June)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)

· Argentina Economic Activity ABR

· EARNINGS: AeroVironment

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea’s presidential office will announce three “megaprojects” expected to involve massive investment in a new semiconductor production cluster in the country’s southwest. Local media have reported that Samsung Group will be a major investor, as the tech giant seeks to expand production to ride the chip boom.

· The Japanese Diet will begin considering legislation that would create a second capital. The legislation was introduced by Japan’s ruling LDP and Japan Innovation Party. The aim is to have a capital that would back up Tokyo’s core functions during disasters or emergencies and decentralize power. The bill supports JIP’s Osaka-focused restructuring agenda, while a separate proposal would cut 45 proportional representation seats if lawmakers fail to agree on reductions within a year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Retail Sales (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/Construction Orders (May)

· Tawain Consumer Confidence (June)

· Malaysia PPI (May)

· India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)

· Australia RBA Kent Speech

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao visits Brussels through June 30th for high-level talks with EU officials on China-EU trade relations, market access, and ongoing tariff disputes.

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Luxembourg.Ministers will discuss cyber violence against girls, housing and demographics, and fair labor mobility.

· The Athens Defense Conference begins and runs through June 30.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 begins in Sintra, Portugal and runs through July 1st. The event brings together both central banker from around the world and will be the first time new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak publicly (Wednesday). For a full list of attendees, click HERE. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will open the event with a welcoming speech.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill: Panel at Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan monetary policy dialogue in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (May)/ Loans to Households (May)/M3 Money Supply (May)/ Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)/Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (June)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (May)/ Mortgage Approvals (May)/ Mortgage Lending (May)/ M4 Money Supply (May)/ Net Lending to Individuals (May)/ BoE Pill Speech

· Greece Total Credit (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Global

· US and Iran technical negotiations are scheduled to resume in Lucerne, Switzerland. However, the meetings may be cancelled due to renewed military strikes by Iran and the US.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Election primaries are scheduled to be held in Colorado and Arkansas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ PPI (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

· Canada GDP (April)/ GDP (May)

· Costa Rica Current Account Q1

· Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· USA S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/House Price Index (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ Chicago PMI (June)/ JOLTs Job Openings (May)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (May)/ Redbook (June/27)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat (June)/ API Crude Oil/Gasoline Stock Change (June/26)

· Columbia Business Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

· Paraguay Current Account Q1

· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

· EARNINGS: Nike, Constellation Brands, Progress Software

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (June)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ PPI (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2

· Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes released/Australia Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (June)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)/NBS General PMI (June)

· Thailand Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption (May)/ Private Investment (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)

· India Government Budget Value (May)/ External Debt Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets her Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Baku.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (June)/ Current Account Q1/Nationwide Housing Prices (June)/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/

· Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/Unemployed Persons (June)/ Unemployment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (June)/Bavaria CPI (June)/ Brandenburg CPI (June)/ Hesse CPI (June)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (June)/ Saxony CPI (June)/Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (May)/ PPI (May)

· Spain Current Account (April)

· France Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Household Consumption (May)/ PPI (May)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

· Turkey Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Imports/Exports (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)/ Italy PPI (May)

· Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Ukraine Current Account (May)

· EARNINGS: Collins Foods, Sainsbury’s

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Gaza Board of Peace meets in Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon Industrial Production (April)

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Congo, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Global

· The Democratic Republic of Congo assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

· The OECD hosts the Green Growth and Sustainable Development Forum in Paris, Francie through July 2nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the official deadline for the US, Mexico and Canada to decide whether to extend the USMCA trade agreement for another 16 years (and which will not be met as negotiations are ongoing). However, trade representatives from all three countries will hold their first trilateral talks, and the deal will enter into a cycle of yearly reviews until an agreement is reached.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will undertake an official visit to Canada through July 4.

· Today is Canada Day, commemorating the anniversary of the Constitution Act of 1867. Financial markets and banks are closed.

· St. Lucia assumes the chairmanship of CARICOM (Caribbean Community).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chairman Kevin Warsh takes part in a policy panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal.

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem participates in a panel discussion at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026 in Sintra, Portugal.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (June)/ MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/26)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (June/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/26)/ ADP Employment Change (June)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (June)/ Construction Spending (May)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (June)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (June/26)

· Mexico Business Confidence (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (May)/ Current Account Q1

· Peru Inflation Rate (June)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

· Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speech

· EARNINGS: Constellation Brands, General Mills, FactSet Research Systems, MSC Industrial Direct, UniFirst, National Beverage, Greenbrier Companies

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will make her first visit to India since taking office last year. The trip comes as Japanese businesses increase their investments in India, and more than 50 companies, including Suzuki Motor, Itochu and Toyota Tsusho, will accompany the prime minister. he two looking to deepen economic and security ties with China in mind. Takaichi was initially set to visit the northeastern state of Assam, but now she will only visit New Delhi due to time constraints.

· Hong Kong observes the Special Administrative Region Establishment day, marking the day I 1997 when the UK transferred power over Hong Kong to China.

· Today is the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.

· The Japanese government will cut passport application fees for its citizens by up to half. Meanwhile, it will raise visa issuance fees for foreign visitors for the first time in about 50 years. Fees for single-entry visas will increase from 3,000 yen ($18) to 15,000 yen, and for multiple-entry visas, from 6,000 yen to 30,000 yen. The departure tax, applied to both Japanese and foreign nationals, will also be raised from 1,000 yen to 3,000 yen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (June)/ Ai Group Construction Index (June)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (June)/ Commodity Prices (June)

· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q2/ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q2/ Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q2/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Bank Lending (May)

· Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ireland takes over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union until the end of the year.

· The European Commission is scheduled to present “Defense Single Market: EU Technological Basi Fit for Future” – the strategic plan creating a foundation for a unified defense market. The plan is expected to remove fragmented barriers, mitigate external supply-chain dependencies, and boost cross-border industrial cooperation across member states.

· The European Parliament’s Industry, Research and Energy Committee will vote on a proposal to accelerate permit-granting procedures for energy infrastructure projects, such as transmission and distribution grids, and storage and recharging stations, as well as renewable energy projects. The aim is to help lower electricity prices and help the EU transition towards a more sustainable and decarbonized energy system.

· The European Parliament publishes the latest edition of Eurobarometer. The survey covers EU citizens’ feelings about the future and their expectations of the EU, as well as a range of issues, including: the role of the EU in the current global context and in protecting Europeans; key citizen priorities and values; and how citizens view the European Parliament, the EU and EU membership

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (May)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Inflation Rate Flash (June)/ CPI Flash (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking/ ECB Vujčić Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

· Russia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ Corporate Profits (April)/ Real Wage Growth (April)/ Retail Sales (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Bank Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Burundi celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Ghana celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q2/ Budget Balance (May)/ABSA Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (June)

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· France and its G7 partners will convene a regional security conference in Martinique in July 2026, marking a major step forward in international coordination. The conference will assemble nations from across the Caribbean and G7 partners to establish a maritime task force and step up the fight against drug trafficking and transnational crime.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· U.S. Bond Markets will close early in advance of the Independence Day holiday.

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks in moderated discussion at Banco de España conference Universidad Internacional Menéndez Pelayo, Santander, Spain.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/27)/ Participation Rate (June)/ Average Weekly Hours (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/20)/ Government Payrolls (June)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (June/27)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (June)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (June)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (June)/ Factory Orders (May)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/26)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (July/02)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/02)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (July/03)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/03)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/01)/ Total Vehicle Sales (June)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

· EARNNGS: Levi’s, Lindsay

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (May)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (June)

· Japan Monetary Base/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/27)

· Australia Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

· Thailand Business Confidence (June)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (May)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Court of Justice is expected to rule on Alphabet unit Google’s fight against a record fine levied by EU antitrust regulators eight years ago for using its Android mobile operating system to block rivals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give an introductory statement at the ECON hearing of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a speech and participate in a panel discussion “The Role of Central Banks in the Fight Against Climate Change: Current State and Outlook” at 7th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists (WCERE) in Lisbon, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a discussion followed by a moderated discussion at Generali Executive Series in Milan, Italy.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann participates in a fireside chat at the Natixis CIB Conference on Private Debt in London.

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (June)

· Spain New Car Sales (June)/ Bonos y Obligaciones Auction

· Italy New Car Registrations (June)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Romania PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (June)

· France Budget Balance (May)

· Spain Unemployment Change (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/26)

· EARNINGS: Baltic Classifieds Group, Currys, FastPartner

· Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria holds national assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (June)

Friday, July 3, 2026

Global

· World FAO Food Price Index (June)

· The United Nations is closed today for an official holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (June)

· Columbia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)

· Australia S&P Global Composite PMI (June)

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Japan S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (June)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (June)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Belarus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion with António Costa at 26th Les Rencontres Économiques d’Aix-en-Provence 2026 “Navigating a World of Uncertainty” in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on a panel at Les Rencontres Economiques Conference entitled ‘Fiscal and monetary policy: An impossible coordination?’ in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (June)

· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

· France New Car Registrations (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)

· Russia GDP (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)

· Spain Industrial Production (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (May)/

· UK DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (June)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (June)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (June)/ S&P Global Services PMI (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iran will hold the official funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamani in Tehran. He was killed by Israeli airstrikes at the beginning of the Iran War. His body will lie in state at the Iman Khomeini Prayer Hall at the Grand Mosalla in Tehran through July 5th. On July 6th, there will be a public funeral procession through the streets of Tehran. Then his body will be transferred to the holy city of Qom on July 7th. On July 8th, there will be a transnational symbolic procession in the Iraqi holy cities of Najaf and Karbala. His body will then be transferred on July 9th back to Iran for burial at the Iman Reza Shrine in Mashad.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (April)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (June)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, July 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 250th Anniversary of the Declaration of Independence and the establishment of the United States of America.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Republic Day in the Philippines, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Slovakia holds a referendum on whether to cancel life payments for leaders after their terms expire.

· The 33rd Annual Session of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly will take place from 4 to 8 July 2026 at the World Forum Convention Center in The Hague, Netherlands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Liberation Day in Rwanda, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Global

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The CARICOM Heads of Government Meeting takes place in Saint Lucia.

· Venezuela celebrates Independence Day, commemorating when in 1811 Spanish rule was thrown off.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Valiant Shield, a joint-military exercise of Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and the US, takes place in Guam.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria celebrates Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· July 7 – 8: The NATO Summit will be held in Ankara, Turkey.

· July 23: The 33rd ASEAN Regional Forum takes place in Manila, the Philippines.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delphi, India.

· September 18 – 20: Russia legislative (Duma) elections are to be held.

Francis Kelly 6/26/26 Francis Kelly 6/26/26

The Global Week Ahead

June 14 - 21, 2026

The G7 Summit and a Possible Iran Peace Deal Will Dominate the Week, UK Prime Minister Starmer Faces the Possible End as Prime Minister, and the U.S., UK, Japan, and Australian Central Banks Meet on Interest Rates

It appears a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran is imminent. Both President Trump and various Iranian leaders have indicated they are closer than ever to striking a deal, or at least to a substantially more robust, longer-term cease-fire. President Trump has told reporters he expects the deal to be signed “in the next few hours.” However, it appears another flare-up between Israeli forces and Hezbollah may delay or even derail the deal. We will have more on the deal if and when it is signed.

This all comes as the G7 Leaders’ Summit begins on Monday and runs through Wednesday in Evian, France. Both the Iran situation and the Ukraine War will dominate leaders' discussions. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will join for part of the meetings. The UK, France, and Germany have formulated a five-point peace framework they want President Trump to endorse, which would create a quadripartite negotiation format– Russia, Ukraine, the U.S., and the EU at the table working toward a deal. President Trump has not indicated whether he will support the plan.

The talks come as Russia finds itself increasingly stressed domestically in the face of Ukraine’s surging military on the front lines and via long-range drone strikes. Ukrainian drone strikes have forced nearly all major oil refineries in central Russia to either suspend operations or reduce fuel production. Russia imposed a temporary ban on gasoline exports from April 1st through the end of July.

Moscow has also prohibited jet fuel exports through November 30. Russian oil refining volumes have fallen at least 10% over several months in 2026, with diesel production down roughly 10% in May alone.

Reuters estimated 700,000 barrels per day of refining capacity at 16 refineries offline — roughly double the 2025 figure — with 35 primary distillation units shut. Russian refining is running at 4.58 mbpd in May 2026, 13% below May 2025.

Additionally, G7 leaders are expected to discuss the U.S.’s 15% universal tariffs, which expire on July 24th, and what comes next. There is hope that there will be sideline discussions between President Trump and leaders from Japan and South Korea to advance efforts to hammer out final trade deals (President Lee Jae-myung is an invited guest – South Korea is not a member of the G7).

However, this depends on whether President Trump shows up to the summit: There is a risk that he will cancel his attendance to focus on finalizing the Iran trade deal.

Also, this week, amid the G7 meeting, the EU Parliament is expected to approve the EU-U.S. Trade Agreement. It has been a bumpy path to a final deal, with the EU Parliament suspending work on it after President Trump raised Greenland as a bargaining chip.

The UK is facing an extraordinary leadership challenge this week. The Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, is running in a by-election this week for a seat in parliament. If elected – and Burnham, a widely popular member of the Labour Party – is widely expected to win – he will immediately challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labor Party. Burnham’s challenge is likely to ignite weeks of campaigning and likely other challengers to Starmer joining in, all of which suggest Starmer’s tenure as Prime Minister is coming to an end.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, central bank interest rate action is the key theme for markets. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Reserve Bank of Australia are all meeting.

In the U.S., Kevin Warsh will be chairing his first Open Market Meeting as Fed Chair. How the committee – and Warsh – see growing inflation risk will be paramount. It is likely the Fed will hold interest rates. Also in the U.S., this week is a shortened week with the Juneteenth holiday on Friday. There are several important economic reports out this week, including May retail sales on Wednesday and several housing indicators.

In Europe, the Bank of England meets on Thursday and is likely to hold rates steady. This comes after the UK’s May CPI is released on Wednesday, labor market data on Thursday, and retail sales on Friday. Germany’s June ZEW Survey is out Tuesday, and PPI is out on Friday.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Tuesday. The BoJ is expected to raise rates 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level it has been at in 31 years. Markets will also get the May CPI on Friday. China publishes industrial production numbers and April’s retail sales figures on Tuesday. And the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Tuesday and is expected to hold rates steady.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, June 14, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump turns 80 years old.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London. She will then travel to Italy to meet Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and France for the G7 Leaders’ Summit. The agenda for all three stops is the same: the joint next-generation fighter jet development project (GCAP), cybersecurity, and outer space cooperation are the bilateral priorities with both the UK and Italy. At the G7 level, Japan is positioning itself as Asia's voice on energy security — given that the Strait of Hormuz closure has hit Asia hardest — and is pushing for G7 coordination on stabilizing crude oil markets, critical minerals supply chains, and Ukraine support.

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yik travels to Mongolia for meetings through June 15th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Switzerland holds a referendum on a proposal to limit immigration Ater the country reaches 10 million.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will travel to Belarus to meet with President Lukasheno.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 15, 2026

Global

· The 52nd G7 Summit begins in Evian, France and runs through June 17th. Leaders are expected to discuss a number of issues ranging from overall geopolitical challenges, the situation in Ukraine and the Middle east, the state of international partnerships, and the future of AI. Our view is the summit is best understood not as a policy-making event but as a real-time pressure test of Western cohesion on three simultaneous shocks — energy/Iran, trade architecture, and critical minerals. The highest-value watch item is whether the Iran deal actually closes in the margins of the summit, which would have immediate downstream effects on energy prices, shipping costs, and Gulf state positioning. The Trump tariff issue is the second-order issue to track: the summit is likely to be used to telegraph what replaces the U.S.’ Section 122 authority, and alignment between the U.S. and G7 partners on Section 301 successor mechanisms would be a meaningful signal for industrial and trade-exposed portfolios. The absence of a joint communiqué for a second straight year should register as a structural data point — it is not a surprise, but a confirmation that the old G7 consensus architecture is being replaced by something more transactional and bilateral.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Congress is out of session this week and return to work on June 22nd.

· The Canadian Parliament is in session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Housing Starts (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (April)/ Wholesale Sales (April)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June)/ Industrial Production (May)/Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production(May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (June)/ NOPA Crush Report

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

Myanmar's president, Min Aung Hlaing, is due to arrive in China for a state visit, scheduled through Friday. The president is fresh off a trip to India, which was his first foreign visit since he switched from being leader of Myanmar's military regime. Chinese President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, has engaged in a flurry of diplomacy in recent weeks, hosting U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin along with visiting North Korea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Westpac Consumer Confidence Q2/ Composite NZ PCI (May)/ Services NZ PSI (May)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (May)

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (April)

· India WPI Food Index (May)/ WPI Fuel (May)/ WPI Inflation (May)/ WPI Manufacturing (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Nidec (Japan)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. EU foreign affairs ministers will discuss Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Andrii Sybiha via videoconference. The Council will also discuss the situation in the Middle East in light of the latest developments of the war in Iran and its effects across the region. Ministers will further exchange on the critical situation in Lebanon amid ongoing hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as on Gaza and the West Bank. Ministers will then turn to discuss the state of play between the EU and China.

· The Second Accession Conference with Ukraine takes places in Luxembourg. It brings Ukraine a step closer to EU membership. The meeting will serve to open negotiations on cluster 1: fundamentals. This cluster covers notably the rule of law and fundamental rights, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform, and economic criteria, and includes the following negotiating chapters: Chapter 23 – Judiciary and fundamental rights, Chapter 24 – Justice, freedom and security, Chapter 5 – Public procurement, Chapter 18 – Statistics, and Chapter 32 – Financial control.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hosts Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan for meetings in Moscow.

· The 27th Accession Conference with Montenegro takes place in Luxembourg. The meeting will serve to provisionally close negotiations on chapters 2 (free movement of workers) and 28 (consumer and health protection).

· The Second Accession Conference with the Republic of Moldova takes place in Luxembourg. The meeting will serve to open negotiations on cluster 1: fundamentals. This cluster covers notably the rule of law and fundamental rights, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform, and economic criteria, and includes the following negotiating chapters: Chapter 23 – Judiciary and fundamental rights, Chapter 24 – Justice, freedom and security, Chapter 5 – Public procurement, Chapter 18 – Statistics, and Chapter 32 – Financial control

· The EU-Egypt Association Council takes place in Luxembourg. The meeting will be co-chaired by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt, Badr Abdelatty, who will be leading the Egyptian delegation. Commissioner for the Mediterranean, Dubravka Šuica, will represent the European Commission. Building on the first EU-Egypt summit held in October 2025, the Association Council will review the implementation of the EU-Egypt Strategic and Comprehensive Partnership, launched in March 2024, and discuss avenues for further strengthening bilateral cooperation. The parties are expected to take stock of progress across the Partnership's six pillars, namely political relations, economic stability, trade and investment, migration and mobility, security, and demography and human capital. The exchange will also provide an opportunity to discuss global issues of common interest and the regional situation, including developments in the Middle East and North Africa region and their implications for EU-Egypt cooperation.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded opening keynote speech at the ECB conference "Money in transition: digitalization and innovation in payments" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs session 1 "Fostering digital finance in Europe" at ECB conference "Money in transition: digitalization and innovation in payments" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives a keynote speech at Euro Finance Summit in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (May)

· Romania Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Turkey Industrial Production (April)/ Budget Balance (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate (May)

· Italy Balance of Trade (April)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Greece Construction Output Q1

· Serbia Building Permits (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

· Israel Current Account Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Global

· The G7 Leaders’ Summit continues in Evian, France.

· https://www.worldbank.org/en/events/2026/06/16/abcde-2026The World Bank’s Annual Conference on Development Economics begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through June 17th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. and Mexico hold a second round of USMCA negotiations in Washington, D.C. The meeting will be focused on agricultural issues.

· U.S. primary elections are held in Oklahoma, with runoff votes in Alabama and Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout/ IGP-10 Inflation (June)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (April)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Building Permits Prel (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Import/Export Prices (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (June)/ Redbook (June/13)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/12)

· Columbia Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (April)/ Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (April)

· EARNINGS: La-Z Boy

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import/Export Prices (May)

· New Zealand Food Inflation (May)

· The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates. The BoJ is expected to raise the policy rate to 1%, the highest level in 31 years.

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q1

· The Reserve bank of Australia meets on interest rates.

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

· China House Price Index (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The European Parliament is expected to give their final approval to EU-US trade deal. The proposals, already agreed by Parliament and Council negotiators, would eliminate most tariffs on industrial and agricultural goods from the US. At the same time, negotiators agreed on several elements strengthening the Commission’s original proposal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will be invited to approve the Council’s negotiating position on the proposed directive regarding the placing on the market of genetically modified micro-organisms (GMMs) and the processing of organs. Ministers will also hold a policy debate on the proposed regulation establishing a framework of measures to strengthen the EU’s biotechnology and biomanufacturing sectors, particularly in the area of health. The regulation, which forms part of the European Biotech Act I, was announced on 16 December 2025 as part of the Commission’s Health Package.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. Ministers responsible for European affairs will meet in Luxembourg to continue preparations for the June European Council meeting by discussing draft conclusions. The Council will hold a policy debate on a draft negotiating box regarding the new MFF 2028-2034. Ministers will be also invited to adopt partial general approaches on the three main components of the new MFF, namely the:

o regulation establishing the European Fund for economic, social and territorial cohesion, agriculture and rural, fisheries and maritime, prosperity and security (NRPP regulation)

o regulation on establishing the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), including the specific program for defense research and innovation activities

o regulation establishing the Global Europe instrument

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a roundtable discussion at DigitalEurope Finance Executive Council Summer Summit 2026 in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates on a stage conversation at Reuters NEXT Europe 2026 in London.

· Turkey Retail Sales (April)

· Italy Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ ZEW Current Conditions (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (May)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ Labour Cost Index Q1/ Wage Growth Q1

· Belarus Industrial Production (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordon Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

· Israel Unemployment Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The World Bank Institute's Africa Growth and Opportunity: Research in Action Conference is being in Palermo, Italy through June 17th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Food Inflation (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Global

· The G7 Leaders’ Summit concludes in Evian, France.

· The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings on interest rates, the first chaired by newly sworn-in Chair Kevin Warsh. He will hold his first press conference at 2:00 p.m.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/12)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (June/12)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/12)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (June/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/12)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Retail Sales Control Group (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Inventories (April)/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (April)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (June/12)

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Canada New Housing Price Index (May)

· Columbia Consumer Confidence (May)

· EARNINGS: CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China’s top financial regulators gather in Shanghai alongside global central bankers and finance executives for the Lujiazui Forum, which runs through June 18th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Current Account Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June)/16

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (June)/ Import/Export/Balance of Trade (May)/ Machinery Orders (April)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (May)/ Non-Oil Exports (May)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (May)/ RBA Jones Speech/ RBA Chart Pack

· Philippines Cash Remittances (April)

· China FDI (YTD) (May)

· India Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Russia-ASEAN summit begins in Kazan, Russia, and through June 18th. President Vladimir Putin expected to meet with various heads of states.

· VivaTech 2026, Europe’s biggest technology event, begins in Paris, France.

· Today is Iceland Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech at the XIX Cotec Europe Summit "Rethinking work in the age of AI: Transformation, Opportunity, Governance" in Venice, Italy

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at the 2026 Salzburg Global Finance Forum in Salzburg, Austria. He later participates on a panel discussing the future of money.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpens speaks at European Economics & Financial Center in Brussels.

· Turkey Auto Production (May)/ Auto Sales (May)

· UK Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI Output (May)/ PPI Input/Output (May)/ Retail Price Index (May)

· Hungary Gross Wage (April)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

· Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI (May)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Ireland Balance of Trade (April)/ Residential Property Prices (April)

· Serbia Current Account (April)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

· EARNINGS: AO World

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

· South Africa Inflation Rate (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

Thursday, June 18, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Obama Presidential Center dedication ceremony. The campus and museum, on the south side of Chicago, open to the public on Friday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q1/ Aggregate Demand Q1/ Private Spending Q1/

· Canada PPI (May)/ Raw Materials Prices (May)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (June/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/06)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (June/13)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (June)/ Philly Fed Employment (June)/ Philly Fed New Orders (June)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (June)/ CB Leading Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June/12)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (June/18)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/18)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/19)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/19)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (April)/ Overall Net Capital Flows(April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/17)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Leading Indicator (May)

· Columbia ISE Economic Activity (April)

· EARNINGS: Accenture, Kroger, Empire Company (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea’s $350 billion Korea-US Strategic Investment Corporation will be launched as part of the recently passed Special Act on Investment in the U.S.

· Today is Independence Day in the Seychelles, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/13)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (June)/ Lending Facility Rate (June)/ Loan Growth (May)/

· Tawain M2 Money Supply May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· A U.K. parliamentary by-election in Makerfield, Greater Manchester will be held. Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is expected to win and immediately challenge Prime Minister Kier Starmer for the Prime Minister – and is widely expected to succeed in the effort.

· The European Council meets through June 19th in Brussels. EU leaders are expected to focus mostly on the impact of the Iran War on Europe and Ukraine’s accession process to joining the EU.

· NATO Defense Ministers meet in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a roundtable discussion at IE University event "Climate Transition and Competitiveness: Ambition, Advantages and Trade-offs" in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an online speech at a policy breakfast "L'EURO DIGITALE. Le implicazioni per il sistema monetario europeo e le dinamiche nazionali" organized by Istituto per la Competitività in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a session entitled "Session on monetary policymaking under uncertainty" at Deutsche Bank Forum in London.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks at payments conference in Eltville, Germany.

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (May)

· Belarus GDP (May)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (May)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

· The Bank of England will meet on interest rate policy. The BoE is expected to hold rates steady.

· UK Unemployment Rate (April)/ Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (April)/Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (May)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Euro Area Current Account (April)/ Current Account s.a (April)/ Construction Output (April)

· Italy Current Account (April)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/12

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Whitbread, Tesco, FirstGroup, Bulkers

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (May)

· South Africa Building Permits (April)

Friday, June 19, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. observes the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday. Financial markets, banks, and the federal government are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (June)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/

· Argentina Retail Sales (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong and Taiwan observe Dragon Boat Festival. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (May)

· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)

· India Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/12)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)/Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Japan Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel at the Natixis International SSA Conference in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the 80th anniversary of the Italian Constitution organized by Università di Roma Sapienza in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at the Annual Conference of the Spanish Centre for Sustainable and Responsible Finance (FINRESP) in Madrid, Spain.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a policy conversation with Gita Gopinath at PSE-CEPR Policy Forum in Paris, France.

· UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (May)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (May)

· Germany PPI (May)

· Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/

· Poland Industrial Production (May)

· Greece Current Account (April)

· Italy Construction Output (April)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (June)/ PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ M2 Money Supply (May)

· Slovakia Current Account (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (June)

· Oman Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana PP (May)

Saturday, June 20, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Columbia Presidential Elections - 2nd Round

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 21, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombia holds the 2nd round of their presidential elections. In the first round, right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella captured 44% of the vote, ahead of left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda of the ruling Historic Pact with 41%. The two candidates sit on opposite ends of the political spectrum with vastly different visions — particularly on security and the role of the state. De la Espriella is running as a hardline anti-crime outsider; Cepeda is pitching himself as the continuation of outgoing President Petro's progressive agenda. As of today, prediction markets are assigning roughly an 88% probability to De la Espriella winning.

· The final round of the U.S. Open is played at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southhampton, New York.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· June 23 – The World Economic Forum’s New Champions meeting in Dalian, China.

· July 7 – 8: The NATO Summit will be held in Ankara, Turkey.

· September 12 – 13: The 18th BRICS Summit will be held in New Delhi, India.

Francis Kelly 6/12/26 Francis Kelly 6/12/26

Latest Fulcrum Macro Advisors Presentation

June 1, 2026

Talking Hedge Austin 2026 Conference

We were delighted to speak at the recent Talking Hedge Austin 2026 Conference in Austin, Texas. The event - attended by close to 200 leading hedge fund managers, asset management portfolio managers, and pension fund chief investment officers - was the perfect setting for a dynamic discussion of the leading geopolitical issues, macro strategy challenges, and general outlook for the rest of 2026 and 2027.

The theme of the talk was “Everything, Everywhere, All At Once: Making Sense of Wars, Trade Policy, Tech, and Geopolitics.”

You can access the presentation HERE or via the window below. We hope you find it useful.

Please let us know if you have any questions.

Francis Kelly 5/31/26 Francis Kelly 5/31/26

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Prudential Regulators To Testify in the House, Treasury Secretary Bessent Testifies Before Congress, and the SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee Discusses Semi-Annual Reporting and Proxy Voting

June 1 - 5, 2026

After the quiet of last week (nothing happened with the Memorial Day break – hence, we did not publish last week), things spring back to life this week in Washington.

The big event this week will be the prudential regulators - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Comptroller Jonathan Gould, FDIC Chairman Travis Hill, and Acting National Credit Union Administration Chairman Kyle Hauptman – testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. We believe a big focus of questioning will be centered on issues dogging the ongoing housing bill and crypto bill. But we also have reason to believe that committee members will be focused on the Fed’s work to develop new tailoring rules for banks.

This comes after an interesting Reuters report last week detailing how banks are quietly but insistently pushing the Fed behind the scenes to lock in its new supervisory regime so it cannot be easily reversed by a potential future Democratic administration.

Also on Capitol Hill this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying in both chambers on the Treasury Department’s proposed 2027 budget. While dollars and cents will be the focus, it is also highly likely that questions will be fired off at Bessent on a host of other issues, including in the financial regulatory arena and the newly proposed $250 bill featuring President Trump’s face.

We will be watching the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Investor Advisory Committee meeting this week. It is a hot agenda, covering everything from the proposed move to semi-annual corporate reporting to proxy voting reform to the role of individual investors in the private.

Looking back at last week, the SEC released their proposed rescission of climate-related disclosure rules. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said in a written statement: “SEC disclosure obligations should comply with the Commission’s statutory authority, be guided by materiality as the North Star, avoid the practical effect of dictating corporate behavior, and be imposed only when the expected benefits justify the likely costs and burdens.” The release has a 60-day comment period.

Finally, we would note that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) sent a notice to all staff across the country that they are now expected to work out of a new office in Washington, D.C. – a move widely seen as a stealthy reduction-in-force plan.

The CFPB staffing issue has been a long-running litigation battlefield, with the Trump Administration initially reducing staff by roughly 25% (from 1,750 to 1,100). But in April 2025, the Administration attempted to cut 1,500 more staff – approximately 90% of the remaining staff – bringing it down to roughly 200. But a federal judge blocked that move, and the case has been in litigation ever since. Since then, the Administration has offered a new plan that would cut staff to 556, which the federal judge is now considering.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on the Treasury Department’s 2027 Budget. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

House of Representatives

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Committee will hold a hearing with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifying.

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Oversight of Prudential Regulators.” Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Comptroller Jonathan Gould, FDIC Chairman Travis Hill, and Acting National Credit Union Administration Chairman Kyle Hauptman will testify.

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Agriculture Committee will hold a meeting with Agriculture Department Secretary Brooke Rollin testifying.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Speeches –

· Tuesday, June 2, 8:30 a.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives remarks and participates in a conversation on monetary policy co-hosted by the Cleveland Fed, the City Club of Cleveland, the Greater Cleveland Partnership, and the 50 Club of Cleveland.

· Wednesday, June 3, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation event at the Community Development Bankers Association (CDBA) Peer Forum 2026, Washington, D.C.

· Saturday, June 6, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on supervision and regulation at the 5th DC Finance Conference, Washington, D.C.

Conferences –

· Nothing is scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the House Ways and Means Committee.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, June 4, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC’s The SEC's Investor Advisory Committee is holding a meeting to discuss avoiding retail confusion regarding private market assets, passive index funds, shareholder voting, fund proxy voting, and recommendations regarding quarterly vs. semi-annual reporting.

· Thursday, June 4, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday & Thursday, June 3 – 4 – SIFMA will be holding its annual Anti-Money Laundering & Financial Crimes Conference in New York. US Attorney for the Southern District (and former SEC Chair) Jay Clayton will be speaking.

· Wednesday, June 3, 8:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2026 US Regulatory & Compliance Orientation Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, June 2, 9:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a conference entitled “The Powell Years at the Fed: A Retrospective.” Former Vice Chairs for Supervision Randy Quarles and Dan Tarullo will speak as will former Fed Chairs Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke, as well as former Vice Chairs for Monetary Policy Alan Blinder and Donald Kohn.

· Saturday, June 6 – The 5th Annual DC Finance Conference will take place at American University in Washington, D.C. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will speak.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/31/26 Francis Kelly 5/31/26

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S.–Iran Peace Negotiations Drag On, Lebanon and Israel Continue Talking as Fighting Ramps Up, Colombia, Peru, and Ethiopia Hold Important Elections, and Markets Await Inflation and Jobs Reports

May 31 - June 1, 2026

Heading into the new week, markets continue to watch the slow-moving peace talks between the Trump Administration and the Iranian regime’s leadership. While details remain murky and the reporting on the issue has been confusing at best, it still appears there is a potential memorandum of understanding between the two sides. Reports surfaced late Thursday claiming a tentative deal had been reached to extend the cease-fire. But on Friday, President Trump reportedly sent back a series of demands to the Iranian leadership – none of which were apparently well-received in Tehran.

Specifically, President Trump – according to a Truth Social posting – demanded Iran agree to never develop a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened to unrestricted shipping traffic with no tolls imposed by the newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority.” The President then met with aides in the National Security Council for two hours, but no new decisions were made.

Meanwhile, Iran has now pushed back, demanding new conditions which include the cessation of Israel’s military operations in Lebanon against the Iranian proxy force Hezbollah. But that is unlikely to happen as Israeli forces are continuing their drive into Lebanon, capturing the medieval crusader castle of Beauford (the deepest incursion of the Israeli military into Lebanon in 26 years),which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu marked a “dramatic shift” in the campaign. Netanyahu vowed Israeli forces would push deeper into Lebanon, sending evacuation notices to civilians more than 25 miles deep into the country. Critically, Lebanese and Israeli negotiators are scheduled to hold a fourth round of talks at the Pentagon in Washington this week. All in all, it does not look like any real settlement of hostilities, either in Lebanon or with Iran, is likely this week.

Elsewhere, three big elections are being held this week: First, Colombia is holding presidential elections today (Sunday). Left-wing/Marxist Iván Cepeda is seen as the frontrunner in polls but is unlikely to secure the 50% vote needed for victory. That makes the race between right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia critical to determining if Cepeda will likely win in the second round of voting or if the center/right has a shot at winning the presidency.

And in Peru, the presidential election is heading into the decisive second round next Sunday (June 7th) between conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sánchez. Fujimori is slightly ahead in most polls.

Finally, Ethiopia is holding general elections on Monday for the country’s lower house and regional assemblies. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party is projected to win in a landslide (as there is no coalition among the opposition, which also finds it hard to campaign with tough government restrictions placed on them). The elections are important from a regional security perspective, as there are currently three active insurgencies in Ethiopia and ongoing tensions with Sudan and Egypt – all of which affect security in the broader Horn of Africa and commercial shipping via the Suez Canal. And with the global economic repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz being shut, any risk to shipping through the Suez would be a major new shock.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, starting with the U.S. markets, we are waiting to see the U.S. jobs report on Friday, preceded by the JOLTS report on Tuesday and ADP’s private payrolls report on Wednesday. Additionally, the May ISM indices are out this week (manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday), as is the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday. There is not much in the way of Fed speeches this week – aside from two by Fed Governor Michael Barr – as the Fed is getting ready to go into its quiet period.

Canada reports manufacturing PMIs on Monday and services PMI, along with Q1 productivity on Wednesday. And Ivey PMIs are out on Friday. These come on the heels of Statistics Canada reporting the country technically slipped into a technical recession in Q1 for the first time since 2020.

In Asia, China’s PMIs are out on Sunday (government figures on Sunday and private manufacturing and services on Monday and Wednesday, respectively). Japan’s Finance Ministry releases financial statement statistics on Monday and labor earnings on Friday. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech on Wednesday.

And in Europe, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) consumer expectations survey is out Monday, and the Eurozone’s May flash CPI is out on Tuesday, with Germany, France, and Italy on Thursday. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Thursday (in advance of the blackout period for the June 11th monetary policy meeting), and several other ECB board members will speak earlier this week as well. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has several public appearances this coming week, as well. We would also note that Boris Vujčić becomes vice-president of the European Central Bank on Monday. It is a non-renewable eight-year term, replacing Luis de Guindos.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombia holds presidential elections. Current polling points to a runoff between left wing candidate Ivan Cepeda and a right-wing contender. The first round will determine if establishment figure, Paloma Valencia or radical outsider, Abelardo de la Espriella, advance to the runoff. Valencia would prove more attractive to centrist swing voters. Her victory would reinforce our outlook that the opposition wins the presidency.

· Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira will pay an official visit to China through June 2nd. Vieira and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will co-chair the fifth China-Brazil Foreign Ministerial-Level Comprehensive Strategic Dialogue, with the readout framed around Global South coordination, BRICS, and the community-of-shared-future agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Orašac, Croatia

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell gives acceptance remarks at the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing will visit India through June 3rd.

· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary and President To Lam will undertake a state visit to the Philippines through June 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene: Panel at the 32nd Dubrovnic Economics Conference ‘Stablecoins and monetary policy’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea holds elections for its National Assembly as well as municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 1, 2026

Global

· Colombia takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of June.

· Today is the first day of the meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

· The World Health Assembly Meeting is being held in Geneva, Switzerland through today. Global health leaders are aiming to finally adopt the long-overdue **Pandemic Agreement**, establishing the first unified international framework for pandemic preparedness and response.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The head of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang Party, Cheng Li-wun, will begin a visit to the U.S. for two weeks. She will meet with members of Congress, participate in a number of closed-door think tank events all almost exclusively focusing on cross-strait security issues. Cheng has also expressed her hope to meet with President Trump. She will then travel to New York and Boston.

· The U.S. Supreme Court is approaching its end-of-term window (typically late June). There are a number of major decisions to handed down and most are expected in the coming weeks. These include: Trump v. Barbara on birthright citizenship, Louisiana v. Callais on gerrymandering, and State of Illinois v. Trump challenging the president's deployment of National Guard forces to Chicago — rulings that could significantly alter Trump's executive authority and the congressional map.

· The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate return to work after being in recess last week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Carolyn Rogers, will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

· Mexico Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (May)/ Construction Spending (April)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (May)

· Peru Inflation Rate (May)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

· EARNINGS: HP

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A U.S. trade delegation will visit India to discuss the bilateral trade deal through June 4th. The meetings are hoping "to finalize the details" of an interim trade agreement between Washington and New Delhi, as well as take forward negotiations on multiple areas such as market access, nontariff measures and investment promotion under a proposed broader pact. This comes on the heels of an Indian trade team visiting Washington from April 20th to 23rd for meetings with their American counterparts.

· Today is Samoa Independence Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May)/ Commodity Prices (May)

· Japan Capital Spending Q1/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)

· EARNINGS: Nidec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the June bank holiday in in the UK. Banks and financial markets will be closed.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers in Lefkosia, Cyprus through June 2nd.

· The EU – Pakistan Strategic Dialogue will take place in Islamabad, Pakistan.

· The Oslo Freedom Forum begins in Oslo, Norway. Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a speech at the 2026 Bank of Korea International Conference in Seoul, Korea.

· Germany Retail Sales (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ethiopia holds elections general elections. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is highly likely to win along with his Prosperity Party.

· South Africa’s National Assembly is scheduled to hold the first meeting of the impeachment committee against President Cyril Ramaphosa, but it could be postponed due to legal action by the president.

· Today is Madaraka Day (Self-Governance Day) in Kenya. It is a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Ethiopia General Election

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israel and Lebanon will hold their fourth round of direct talks in Washington, D.C. through June 3rd.

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the State Department’s 2027 budget request. However, the questioning from senators will almost assuredly veer into policy questions.

· California holds primary elections. These include Democrat and Republican gubernatorial races and all 52 state House seats. Voters in Los Angeles will also vote in the increasingly hotly contested mayoral race between incumbent Karen Bass and former reality TV star Spencer Pratt. Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota are also holding primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives remarks and participates in conversation on monetary policy co-hosted by the Cleveland Fed, the City Club of Cleveland, the Greater Cleveland Partnership, and the 50 Club of Cleveland.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May)

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Redbook (May/30)/ JOLTs Job Openings (April)/ JOLTs Job Quits (April)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/29)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

· EARNINGS: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Donaldson

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The COMUTEX Technology Conference begins in Taipei, Taiwan and runs through June 5th. Speakers at the event include Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Marvell Technologies CEO Matt Murphy, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

· Japan Monetary Base

· Australia RBA Harper Speech/ Building Permits (April)/ Company Gross Profits Q1/ Building Permits (April)/ Business Inventories Q1/ Current Account Q1/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q1/ Private House Approvals (April)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament's international trade committee will vote on the final trilogue deal implementing the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement ahead of a plenary vote likely to take place in mid-June.

· Today is Republic Day in Italy, celebrating the day in 1946 when Italians were called to vote and form a new government after World War II.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies before the House of Lords Economic Committee.

· European Central Bank Board Member Boris Vujčić will give online remarks at the Icelandic conference on the occasion of the publication of the report by Catherine Mann on Iceland’s currency options.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the University of Derby Business School.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Inflation Rate Flash (May)

· Spain New Car Sales (May)/ Unemployment Change (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (April)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q1

· France Budget Balance (April)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q1

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Total Credit (April)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ Mortgage Approvals (April)/ Mortgage Lending (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Net Lending to Individuals (April)/ CPI Flash (May)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q1

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (May)

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Global

· The OECD publishes its twice-yearly Economic Outlook is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Venezuelan unions will protest nationwide to call for free elections, the release of political prisoners and improved service delivery.

· Paraguay will host Mercosur’s 68th Summit.

· The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on the Treasury Department’s 2027 Budget. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

· The Bloomberg Tech Conference takes place in San Francisco, California through June 4th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation event at the Community Development Bankers Association (CDBA) Peer Forum 2026, Washington, D.C.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/29)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ Factory Orders (April)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (May)/ ISM Services Employment (May)/ ISM Services New Orders (May)/ ISM Services Prices (May)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (May/29)/ Fed Beige Book/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

· Brazil Industrial Production (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q1/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Exports (April)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· EARNINGS: Broadcom, CrowdStrike Holdings, Medtronic, Veeva Systems, Descartes Systems (Can), Macy’s, Industries CH (MEX), Transcontinental (CAN), Canaccord Genuity (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea will hold local elections for provincial governors, city mayors and local assembly members. This vote serves as a vital mid-term temperature check for the country's current administration under left-leaning President Lee and his foreign policy stance toward China and North Korea. Current polls suggest Lee’s Democratic Party is leading in all major polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a meeting of business leaders at the Kisaragi-kai meeting in Japan.

· New Zealand Building Permits (April)/Imports/ Export Prices Q1/ Terms of Trade Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/02)

· Australia Ai Group Construction Index (May)/ Ai Group Industry Index (May)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Chain Price Index Q1/ GDP Consumption Q1/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (May)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

· Japan S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (May)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (May)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (May)/ HSBC Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 29th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 6th. Historically dubbed the "Russian Davos," its function has entirely shifted toward rewriting trade routes and financial models outside the Western sphere. Russian President Vladimir Putin may speak at the event – as he has traditionally done – but this has yet to be confirmed yet (Putin does not make his schedule public in advance due to the Ukrainian War and increased risk of Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia).

· The European Parliament is expected to release legislative texts for the EU Tech Sovereignty Package which was proposed by the European Commission on May 27th. The measure is expected to put in place new restrictions on the use of U.S. cloud providers — including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud — for sensitive government data across all 27 EU member states. And it is expected to include the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) and a Chips Act update. The restrictions apply to public-sector organizations handling financial, judicial, and healthcare data; private companies are not covered.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will host French President Emmanuel Macron in Rome. The talks will cover "the main topics of the bilateral, European and international agenda.”

· The Bank of England launches a public vote on the proposed wildlife images for next banknotes (as opposed to famous politicians or monarchs).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson give a keynote speech at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2026 in Zurich, Switzerland.

· European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (May)

· Turkey Balance of Trade (May)/ Imports/Exports (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/22)

· France New Car Registrations (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Romania PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ PPI (April)

· UK S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (May)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tanzania will host the Tanzania Investment Summit in Arusha through June 5th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Business Confidence Q2/ S&P Global PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the House Ways and Means Committee.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/30)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/23)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/30)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labor Costs Q1/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/29)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (June/04)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/03)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

· Columbia PPI (May)

· EARNINGS: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica (CAN), Toro, Docusign, Enghouse Systems (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the anniversary of the Chinese Communist Government’s violent crackdown on students and other protestors in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in 1989. No commemoration ceremonies are allowed in mainland China and now in Hong Kong (where there used to be annual candlelit ceremonies).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock and Christopher Kent, assistant governor (financial markets), give evidence to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee in Canberra

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/30)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/30)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)

· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

· Thailand Business Confidence (May)

· EARNINGS: NIO (CHN), Sekisui House (JPN)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Justice and Home Affairs (Home Affairs) Council Ministers will meet in Luxembourg. They will discuss he overall state of the Schengen area. The Commission will present its 2026 State of Schengen Report, which outlines how the Schengen acquis has been implemented over the past year. The Council will then define the actions that it views as priorities for the Schengen Council cycle 2026-2027. The Commission and EU-LISA will then give updates on the implementation of the interoperability of large-scale IT systems, including the Entry/Exit System and ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System). Then they will discuss migration issues, the future legal status of displaced Ukrainians living in the EU, and EU security issues dealing with the Iranian War.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for Cohesion Policy through June 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

· The Brussels Economic Security Summit 2026 begins and runs through June 5th.

· Workers on London’s Underground rail service are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Today is the feast of Corpus Christi. The European Central Bank is closed.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks at the first Journée de réseaux de femmes dans la santé en Région Sud in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur organized by Agence Régionale de Santé in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Investment Association Annual Conference 2026 in London.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)/ Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GNP Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Italy New Car Registrations (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Russia GDP (April)

· Romania Retail Sales (April)

· Hungary Retail Sales (April)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)/Unemployment Rate (May)

· Slovakia Retail Sales ARP

· Spain Industrial Production (April)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/29)

· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· France S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

· UK New Car Sales (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, June 5, 2026

Global

· WL (World) Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (May)

· FAO Food Price Index (May)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ Full Time Employment Chg (May)/ Part Time Employment Chg (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Hourly Wages (May)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

· USA Nonfarm Payrolls (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/Average Hourly Earnings (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Weekly Hours (May)/ Government Payrolls (May)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (May)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (May)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (May)/ Used Car Prices (May)/ Used Car Prices (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/05)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/05)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)

· Brazil Car Production (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

· Columbia Inflation Rate (May)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (May)

· EARNINGS: ABM Industries

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (April)

· Japan Household Spending (April)/ Household Spending (April)/ Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Economic Index (April)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (May)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 3rd Est 2025-26/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/29)

· Singapore Retail Sales (April)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Western Balkans Summit will take place in Tivat, Montenegro. The summit will be chaired by the President of the European Council and hosted by the President of Montenegro. The EU will be represented by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. High Representative Kaja Kallas will also participate. The agenda includes discussion of the gradual integration and growth plan of the region in to the EU as well as strengthening security and defense cooperation.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss a proposed regulation on recognition of parenthood. The proposal aims to ensure continuity of parenthood in cross-border situations and thereby protect all children, regardless of how they were conceived or born and regardless of their type of family. They will also approve a partial mandate on the new Justice program supporting, among others, judicial cooperation in civil and ‎criminal matters and judicial ‎training and promoting the independence and impartiality ‎of the judiciary. This program will be part of the next multiannual financial framework (MFF) covering the period 2028 to 2034. Additionally, ministers will discuss hate crime and hate speech.

· Today is Constitution Day in Denmark. It is a half-day holiday for workers and financial markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a conversation with Ed Balls and Stephanie Flanders marking the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations” in London.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will give a keynote speech at the UCL MacroMonitor Launch in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives a keynote speech at the "Pan-European Conglomerate Club" meeting in Helsinki, Finland.

· Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1

· UK Halifax House Price Index (May)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (May)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

· Hungary Industrial Production (April)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)

· Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q1

· Greece GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Italy Retail Sales (April)

· Serbia PPI (May)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· EARNINGS: Telecom Italia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (May)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Saturday, June 6, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on supervision and regulation at the 5th DC Finance Conference, Washington, D.C.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Leo begins a six-day visit to Spain and the Canary Islands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (May)

· Kazakhstan PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 7, 2026

Global

· OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Peru holds the 2nd round of presidential elections between conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sánchez. The winner will become the 10th president of Peru in the last ten years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia holds parliamentary elections.

· Jersey holds parliamentary elections.

· Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers through June 8th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

· Today is Sette Giugno in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· June 10 – The European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

· June 10 – Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting.

· June 11 – July 19 – The World Cup will be held in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.

· June 15 – The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

· June 17 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meeting.

· June 18 – The Bank of England's monetary policy meeting.

· June 23 – The World Economic Forum’s New Champions meeting in Dalian, China.

Francis Kelly 5/29/26 Francis Kelly 5/29/26

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Global Week Ahead

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Monday, July 6, 2026

Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Thursday, July 9, 2026

Friday, July 10, 2026

Saturday, July 11, 2026

Sunday, July 12, 2026

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

June 28 - July 5, 2026

Sunday, June 28, 2026

Monday, June 29, 2026

Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Wednesday, July 1, 2026

Thursday, July 2, 2026

Friday, July 3, 2026

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Global Week Ahead

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

June 12 - 14, 2026

The Battle Over Data Centers, Is the iPhone Birth Control?, Germany’s Evolving Defense Policy, and US Debt Levels Won’t Be Sustainable in 20 Years

The Growth and Growing Battle Over Data Centers

Demographics

Europe’s Evolving Defense Strategy: The German Perspective

The U.S. Federal Debt

Recommended Weekend Reads

Assessing U.S. Military Options Toward Cuba, Chile’s Investment Reset, China Considers the Challenge of Ruling Taiwan, and Is AI Creating Value?

Latest Fulcrum Macro Advisors Presentation

Talking Hedge Austin 2026 Conference

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

Subscribe to our newsletter.