Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 5/31/26 Francis Kelly 5/31/26

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S.–Iran Peace Negotiations Drag On, Lebanon and Israel Continue Talking as Fighting Ramps Up, Colombia, Peru, and Ethiopia Hold Important Elections, and Markets Await Inflation and Jobs Reports

May 31 - June 1, 2026

Heading into the new week, markets continue to watch the slow-moving peace talks between the Trump Administration and the Iranian regime’s leadership. While details remain murky and the reporting on the issue has been confusing at best, it still appears there is a potential memorandum of understanding between the two sides. Reports surfaced late Thursday claiming a tentative deal had been reached to extend the cease-fire. But on Friday, President Trump reportedly sent back a series of demands to the Iranian leadership – none of which were apparently well-received in Tehran.

Specifically, President Trump – according to a Truth Social posting – demanded Iran agree to never develop a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz must be immediately opened to unrestricted shipping traffic with no tolls imposed by the newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority.” The President then met with aides in the National Security Council for two hours, but no new decisions were made.

Meanwhile, Iran has now pushed back, demanding new conditions which include the cessation of Israel’s military operations in Lebanon against the Iranian proxy force Hezbollah. But that is unlikely to happen as Israeli forces are continuing their drive into Lebanon, capturing the medieval crusader castle of Beauford (the deepest incursion of the Israeli military into Lebanon in 26 years),which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu marked a “dramatic shift” in the campaign. Netanyahu vowed Israeli forces would push deeper into Lebanon, sending evacuation notices to civilians more than 25 miles deep into the country. Critically, Lebanese and Israeli negotiators are scheduled to hold a fourth round of talks at the Pentagon in Washington this week. All in all, it does not look like any real settlement of hostilities, either in Lebanon or with Iran, is likely this week.

Elsewhere, three big elections are being held this week: First, Colombia is holding presidential elections today (Sunday). Left-wing/Marxist Iván Cepeda is seen as the frontrunner in polls but is unlikely to secure the 50% vote needed for victory. That makes the race between right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia critical to determining if Cepeda will likely win in the second round of voting or if the center/right has a shot at winning the presidency.

And in Peru, the presidential election is heading into the decisive second round next Sunday (June 7th) between conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sánchez. Fujimori is slightly ahead in most polls.

Finally, Ethiopia is holding general elections on Monday for the country’s lower house and regional assemblies. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party is projected to win in a landslide (as there is no coalition among the opposition, which also finds it hard to campaign with tough government restrictions placed on them). The elections are important from a regional security perspective, as there are currently three active insurgencies in Ethiopia and ongoing tensions with Sudan and Egypt – all of which affect security in the broader Horn of Africa and commercial shipping via the Suez Canal. And with the global economic repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz being shut, any risk to shipping through the Suez would be a major new shock.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, starting with the U.S. markets, we are waiting to see the U.S. jobs report on Friday, preceded by the JOLTS report on Tuesday and ADP’s private payrolls report on Wednesday. Additionally, the May ISM indices are out this week (manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday), as is the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday. There is not much in the way of Fed speeches this week – aside from two by Fed Governor Michael Barr – as the Fed is getting ready to go into its quiet period.

Canada reports manufacturing PMIs on Monday and services PMI, along with Q1 productivity on Wednesday. And Ivey PMIs are out on Friday. These come on the heels of Statistics Canada reporting the country technically slipped into a technical recession in Q1 for the first time since 2020.

In Asia, China’s PMIs are out on Sunday (government figures on Sunday and private manufacturing and services on Monday and Wednesday, respectively). Japan’s Finance Ministry releases financial statement statistics on Monday and labor earnings on Friday. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will give a speech on Wednesday.

And in Europe, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) consumer expectations survey is out Monday, and the Eurozone’s May flash CPI is out on Tuesday, with Germany, France, and Italy on Thursday. ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak on Thursday (in advance of the blackout period for the June 11th monetary policy meeting), and several other ECB board members will speak earlier this week as well. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has several public appearances this coming week, as well. We would also note that Boris Vujčić becomes vice-president of the European Central Bank on Monday. It is a non-renewable eight-year term, replacing Luis de Guindos.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombia holds presidential elections. Current polling points to a runoff between left wing candidate Ivan Cepeda and a right-wing contender. The first round will determine if establishment figure, Paloma Valencia or radical outsider, Abelardo de la Espriella, advance to the runoff. Valencia would prove more attractive to centrist swing voters. Her victory would reinforce our outlook that the opposition wins the presidency.

· Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira will pay an official visit to China through June 2nd. Vieira and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will co-chair the fifth China-Brazil Foreign Ministerial-Level Comprehensive Strategic Dialogue, with the readout framed around Global South coordination, BRICS, and the community-of-shared-future agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Orašac, Croatia

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell gives acceptance remarks at the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Myanmar President Min Aung Hlaing will visit India through June 3rd.

· Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary and President To Lam will undertake a state visit to the Philippines through June 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene: Panel at the 32nd Dubrovnic Economics Conference ‘Stablecoins and monetary policy’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea holds elections for its National Assembly as well as municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 1, 2026

Global

· Colombia takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of June.

· Today is the first day of the meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

· The World Health Assembly Meeting is being held in Geneva, Switzerland through today. Global health leaders are aiming to finally adopt the long-overdue **Pandemic Agreement**, establishing the first unified international framework for pandemic preparedness and response.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The head of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang Party, Cheng Li-wun, will begin a visit to the U.S. for two weeks. She will meet with members of Congress, participate in a number of closed-door think tank events all almost exclusively focusing on cross-strait security issues. Cheng has also expressed her hope to meet with President Trump. She will then travel to New York and Boston.

· The U.S. Supreme Court is approaching its end-of-term window (typically late June). There are a number of major decisions to handed down and most are expected in the coming weeks. These include: Trump v. Barbara on birthright citizenship, Louisiana v. Callais on gerrymandering, and State of Illinois v. Trump challenging the president's deployment of National Guard forces to Chicago — rulings that could significantly alter Trump's executive authority and the congressional map.

· The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate return to work after being in recess last week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Carolyn Rogers, will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.

· Mexico Business Confidence (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (April)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (May)/ Construction Spending (April)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (May)

· Peru Inflation Rate (May)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (May)

· EARNINGS: HP

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A U.S. trade delegation will visit India to discuss the bilateral trade deal through June 4th. The meetings are hoping "to finalize the details" of an interim trade agreement between Washington and New Delhi, as well as take forward negotiations on multiple areas such as market access, nontariff measures and investment promotion under a proposed broader pact. This comes on the heels of an Indian trade team visiting Washington from April 20th to 23rd for meetings with their American counterparts.

· Today is Samoa Independence Day, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (May)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (May)/ Commodity Prices (May)

· Japan Capital Spending Q1/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)

· EARNINGS: Nidec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the June bank holiday in in the UK. Banks and financial markets will be closed.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers in Lefkosia, Cyprus through June 2nd.

· The EU – Pakistan Strategic Dialogue will take place in Islamabad, Pakistan.

· The Oslo Freedom Forum begins in Oslo, Norway. Venezuelan Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a speech at the 2026 Bank of Korea International Conference in Seoul, Korea.

· Germany Retail Sales (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ethiopia holds elections general elections. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is highly likely to win along with his Prosperity Party.

· South Africa’s National Assembly is scheduled to hold the first meeting of the impeachment committee against President Cyril Ramaphosa, but it could be postponed due to legal action by the president.

· Today is Madaraka Day (Self-Governance Day) in Kenya. It is a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (May)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Ethiopia General Election

Tuesday, June 2, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israel and Lebanon will hold their fourth round of direct talks in Washington, D.C. through June 3rd.

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the State Department’s 2027 budget request. However, the questioning from senators will almost assuredly veer into policy questions.

· California holds primary elections. These include Democrat and Republican gubernatorial races and all 52 state House seats. Voters in Los Angeles will also vote in the increasingly hotly contested mayoral race between incumbent Karen Bass and former reality TV star Spencer Pratt. Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota are also holding primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack gives remarks and participates in conversation on monetary policy co-hosted by the Cleveland Fed, the City Club of Cleveland, the Greater Cleveland Partnership, and the 50 Club of Cleveland.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (May)

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (May)/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Redbook (May/30)/ JOLTs Job Openings (April)/ JOLTs Job Quits (April)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/29)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (May)

· EARNINGS: Palo Alto Networks, Dollar General, Donaldson

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The COMUTEX Technology Conference begins in Taipei, Taiwan and runs through June 5th. Speakers at the event include Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, Marvell Technologies CEO Matt Murphy, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (May)

· Japan Monetary Base

· Australia RBA Harper Speech/ Building Permits (April)/ Company Gross Profits Q1/ Building Permits (April)/ Business Inventories Q1/ Current Account Q1/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q1/ Private House Approvals (April)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (April)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Parliament's international trade committee will vote on the final trilogue deal implementing the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement ahead of a plenary vote likely to take place in mid-June.

· Today is Republic Day in Italy, celebrating the day in 1946 when Italians were called to vote and form a new government after World War II.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey testifies before the House of Lords Economic Committee.

· European Central Bank Board Member Boris Vujčić will give online remarks at the Icelandic conference on the occasion of the publication of the report by Catherine Mann on Iceland’s currency options.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives a speech at the University of Derby Business School.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (May)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Inflation Rate Flash (May)

· Spain New Car Sales (May)/ Unemployment Change (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (April)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q1

· France Budget Balance (April)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q1

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Total Credit (April)

· UK BoE Consumer Credit (April)/ Mortgage Approvals (April)/ Mortgage Lending (April)/ M4 Money Supply (April)/ Net Lending to Individuals (April)/ CPI Flash (May)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q1

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (May)

Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Global

· The OECD publishes its twice-yearly Economic Outlook is published.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Venezuelan unions will protest nationwide to call for free elections, the release of political prisoners and improved service delivery.

· Paraguay will host Mercosur’s 68th Summit.

· The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing on the Treasury Department’s 2027 Budget. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

· The Bloomberg Tech Conference takes place in San Francisco, California through June 4th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation event at the Community Development Bankers Association (CDBA) Peer Forum 2026, Washington, D.C.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/29)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/29)/ ADP Employment Change (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ ISM Services PMI (May)/ Factory Orders (April)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (May)/ ISM Services Employment (May)/ ISM Services New Orders (May)/ ISM Services Prices (May)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (May/29)/ Fed Beige Book/ Total Vehicle Sales (May)

· Brazil Industrial Production (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q1/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (May)/ Exports (April)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· EARNINGS: Broadcom, CrowdStrike Holdings, Medtronic, Veeva Systems, Descartes Systems (Can), Macy’s, Industries CH (MEX), Transcontinental (CAN), Canaccord Genuity (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea will hold local elections for provincial governors, city mayors and local assembly members. This vote serves as a vital mid-term temperature check for the country's current administration under left-leaning President Lee and his foreign policy stance toward China and North Korea. Current polls suggest Lee’s Democratic Party is leading in all major polls.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at a meeting of business leaders at the Kisaragi-kai meeting in Japan.

· New Zealand Building Permits (April)/Imports/ Export Prices Q1/ Terms of Trade Q1/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (June/02)

· Australia Ai Group Construction Index (May)/ Ai Group Industry Index (May)/Ai Group Manufacturing Index (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Chain Price Index Q1/ GDP Consumption Q1/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (May)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (May)

· Japan S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (May)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (May)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/Retail Sales (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (May)/ HSBC Services PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 29th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum begins and runs through June 6th. Historically dubbed the "Russian Davos," its function has entirely shifted toward rewriting trade routes and financial models outside the Western sphere. Russian President Vladimir Putin may speak at the event – as he has traditionally done – but this has yet to be confirmed yet (Putin does not make his schedule public in advance due to the Ukrainian War and increased risk of Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia).

· The European Parliament is expected to release legislative texts for the EU Tech Sovereignty Package which was proposed by the European Commission on May 27th. The measure is expected to put in place new restrictions on the use of U.S. cloud providers — including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud — for sensitive government data across all 27 EU member states. And it is expected to include the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) and a Chips Act update. The restrictions apply to public-sector organizations handling financial, judicial, and healthcare data; private companies are not covered.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will host French President Emmanuel Macron in Rome. The talks will cover "the main topics of the bilateral, European and international agenda.”

· The Bank of England launches a public vote on the proposed wildlife images for next banknotes (as opposed to famous politicians or monarchs).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson give a keynote speech at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2026 in Zurich, Switzerland.

· European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (May)

· Turkey Balance of Trade (May)/ Imports/Exports (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/22)

· France New Car Registrations (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Romania PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Corporate Profits (March)/ Real Wage Growth (March)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (May)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)/ PPI (April)

· UK S&P Global Composite PMI (May)/ S&P Global Services PMI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (May)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (May)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tanzania will host the Tanzania Investment Summit in Arusha through June 5th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Business Confidence Q2/ S&P Global PMI (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (May)

Thursday, June 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the House Ways and Means Committee.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/30)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/23)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/30)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labor Costs Q1/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/29)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (June/04)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/03)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (March)

· Columbia PPI (May)

· EARNINGS: Ciena, Lululemon Athletica (CAN), Toro, Docusign, Enghouse Systems (CAN)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the anniversary of the Chinese Communist Government’s violent crackdown on students and other protestors in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square in 1989. No commemoration ceremonies are allowed in mainland China and now in Hong Kong (where there used to be annual candlelit ceremonies).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock and Christopher Kent, assistant governor (financial markets), give evidence to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee in Canberra

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/30)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/30)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (May)

· Australia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

· Thailand Business Confidence (May)

· EARNINGS: NIO (CHN), Sekisui House (JPN)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU Justice and Home Affairs (Home Affairs) Council Ministers will meet in Luxembourg. They will discuss he overall state of the Schengen area. The Commission will present its 2026 State of Schengen Report, which outlines how the Schengen acquis has been implemented over the past year. The Council will then define the actions that it views as priorities for the Schengen Council cycle 2026-2027. The Commission and EU-LISA will then give updates on the implementation of the interoperability of large-scale IT systems, including the Entry/Exit System and ETIAS (European Travel Information and Authorization System). Then they will discuss migration issues, the future legal status of displaced Ukrainians living in the EU, and EU security issues dealing with the Iranian War.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for Cohesion Policy through June 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

· The Brussels Economic Security Summit 2026 begins and runs through June 5th.

· Workers on London’s Underground rail service are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Today is the feast of Corpus Christi. The European Central Bank is closed.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks at the first Journée de réseaux de femmes dans la santé en Région Sud in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur organized by Agence Régionale de Santé in Aix-en-Provence, France.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Investment Association Annual Conference 2026 in London.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (May)/ Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ GNP Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Italy New Car Registrations (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Russia GDP (April)

· Romania Retail Sales (April)

· Hungary Retail Sales (April)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (May)/Unemployment Rate (May)

· Slovakia Retail Sales ARP

· Spain Industrial Production (April)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/29)

· Euro Area S&P Global Construction PMI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· France S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Germany S&P Global Construction PMI (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

· UK New Car Sales (May)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (May)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, June 5, 2026

Global

· WL (World) Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (May)

· FAO Food Price Index (May)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ Full Time Employment Chg (May)/ Part Time Employment Chg (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Hourly Wages (May)/ Ivey PMI s.a (May)

· USA Nonfarm Payrolls (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/Average Hourly Earnings (May)/ Participation Rate (May)/ Average Weekly Hours (May)/ Government Payrolls (May)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (May)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (May)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (May)/ Used Car Prices (May)/ Used Car Prices (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (June/05)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June/05)/ Consumer Credit Change (April)

· Brazil Car Production (May)/ New Car Registrations (May)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (May)

· Columbia Inflation Rate (May)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (May)

· EARNINGS: ABM Industries

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (April)

· Japan Household Spending (April)/ Household Spending (April)/ Average Cash Earnings (April)/ Overtime Pay (April)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Economic Index (April)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (May)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (May)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (May)

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 3rd Est 2025-26/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/29)

· Singapore Retail Sales (April)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU-Western Balkans Summit will take place in Tivat, Montenegro. The summit will be chaired by the President of the European Council and hosted by the President of Montenegro. The EU will be represented by the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission. High Representative Kaja Kallas will also participate. The agenda includes discussion of the gradual integration and growth plan of the region in to the EU as well as strengthening security and defense cooperation.

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss a proposed regulation on recognition of parenthood. The proposal aims to ensure continuity of parenthood in cross-border situations and thereby protect all children, regardless of how they were conceived or born and regardless of their type of family. They will also approve a partial mandate on the new Justice program supporting, among others, judicial cooperation in civil and ‎criminal matters and judicial ‎training and promoting the independence and impartiality ‎of the judiciary. This program will be part of the next multiannual financial framework (MFF) covering the period 2028 to 2034. Additionally, ministers will discuss hate crime and hate speech.

· Today is Constitution Day in Denmark. It is a half-day holiday for workers and financial markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a conversation with Ed Balls and Stephanie Flanders marking the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations” in London.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Swati Dhingra will give a keynote speech at the UCL MacroMonitor Launch in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives a keynote speech at the "Pan-European Conglomerate Club" meeting in Helsinki, Finland.

· Romania GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1

· UK Halifax House Price Index (May)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (May)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (May)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (May)

· Hungary Industrial Production (April)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)

· Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 3rd Est Q1

· Greece GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Italy Retail Sales (April)

· Serbia PPI (May)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· EARNINGS: Telecom Italia

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (May)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Saturday, June 6, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on supervision and regulation at the 5th DC Finance Conference, Washington, D.C.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Pope Leo begins a six-day visit to Spain and the Canary Islands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (May)

· Kazakhstan PPI (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 7, 2026

Global

· OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Peru holds the 2nd round of presidential elections between conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sánchez. The winner will become the 10th president of Peru in the last ten years.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Armenia holds parliamentary elections.

· Jersey holds parliamentary elections.

· Kosovo holds parliamentary elections.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers through June 8th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

· Today is Sette Giugno in Malta, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Looking at the Weeks Ahead

· June 10 – The European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

· June 10 – Bank of Canada monetary policy meeting.

· June 11 – July 19 – The World Cup will be held in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.

· June 15 – The Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

· June 17 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee meeting.

· June 18 – The Bank of England's monetary policy meeting.

· June 23 – The World Economic Forum’s New Champions meeting in Dalian, China.

Francis Kelly 5/29/26 Francis Kelly 5/29/26

The Global Week Ahead

US – Iran Negotiations Drag On, Venezuelan President and US Secretary of State Discuss Oil With India, Colombia Holds Presidential Elections, and Markets Await Inflation Reports

May 24 - 31, 2026

While Washington is quiet this weekend in honor of Memorial Day, negotiations between the US and Iran continue, but seemingly in fits and starts. Both Iranian and US media reports suggested Friday that significant progress had been made toward finalizing a peace deal.

But as details began to leak out, President Trump faced sharp criticism from Republican lawmakers, including Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who said a 60-day extension of the ceasefire “would be a disaster.” President Trump publicly fired back at them, but it appears he also started adjusting the draft terms of the deal being hammered out with Iran. Accords as part of the ultimate deal. And he seemed to even suggest in a Truth Social post that he would be open to Iran signing onto the Accords (which seems highly unlikely as official Iranian policy has long called for the outright eradication of Israel).

It is understood that many of those Arab countries have asked Trump to refrain from any military attacks this week as the Hajj is underway through May 29th with large numbers of Muslim pilgrims traveling in the region. Meanwhile, Iranian officials said no deal was “imminent,” but conceded that progress had been made.

Additionally, the US will host the next round of Israeli–Lebanese peace talks in Washington later this week. However, those talks may be canceled – and also impact the US-Iranian talks – after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to step up attacks on Hezbollah forces after right-wing members of his cabinet demanded a full-scale resumption of Israel’s offensive in Lebanon.

In India this week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend Quad (Australia, India, Japan, and the US) meetings to discuss mutual defense issues. While Rubio is there, it is expected acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriquez will travel to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss oil sales, a move strongly supported by the US. Iran is highly dependent on oil and gas from the Middle East and has been struggling to deal with shortages in recent weeks.

We are also watching for a possible visit to North Korea by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi’s security advance team is in Pyongyang now, making arrangements for a visit. Xi is reported to want to help broker better relations among North Korea, the US, and South Korea. But China no longer has the influence it once had over North Korea since the start of the Ukraine War, as North Korea has grown closer to Russia, sending large numbers of soldiers to fight and selling large quantities of munitions. It will be Xi’s first visit to the Hermit Kingdom since 2019.

Here in the Americas, Colombia is holding hotly contested presidential elections next Sunday to replace President Gustavo Petro, who is constitutionally barred from running again. The contest has effectively consolidated into a three-way race between candidates representing sharply divergent visions for the country: Iván Cepeda, who represents the far left and is polling around 44%, Abelardo De la Espriella, who represents the hard right and is polling in the mid 20% range, and Paloma Valencia, who represents the center-right, is floating in the 18 – 21% range in polls.

It is highly likely that a run-off will take place. The critical sub-contest is therefore between De la Espriella and Valencia for the second runoff slot, with conservative voters split between them, and the other ten candidates far behind. A weighted average of recent polls suggests that Cepeda could narrowly lose to Valencia and tie De la Espriella in a runoff scenario.

Also, this week, Pope Leo XIV releases his first encyclical -Magnifica Humanitas – on the use of artificial intelligence (AI). It is expected to warn society of the grave risks of unfettered AI for humanity. According to the New York Times, the Holy Father calls for: government regulation of the private companies that are driving the development of A.I., protection and retraining for workers whose jobs are threatened, education to help students think critically about the technology, action to protect children from violent, hypersexualized or fake information online that is often generated by A.I., and safeguards to ensure that humans, not artificial intelligence, remain responsible for all decisions regarding the use of weapons.

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, the big focus is on inflation reports from the US, the Eurozone, and Japan.

In the US, the April PCE will be released on Thursday. Also out on Thursday is the durable goods orders report. Both reports come after Tuesday’s Conference Board consumer confidence release.

In Asia this week, Japan’s Tokyo CPI print is out on Friday, as are the April industrial production and retail sales reports. China releases industrial profits on Wednesday.

Finally, in Europe this week, May inflation prints are out on Friday for the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. All should be good reflective indicators of the economic damage caused so far by the Iran conflict. We will also get the European Central Bank minutes out this week.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Cyprus holds parliamentary elections.

· Italy holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea holds National Assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 25, 2026

Global

· Pope Leo XIV releases his new encyclical on AI – Magnifica Humanitas – warning of the risk of AI to civilization. You can read it HERE.

· The United Nations is closed for the holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Memorial Day, a national holiday. Financial markets and banks are closed.

· Today is Revolution Day in Argentina, a holiday.

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will visit India through May 26th.

· The United States and Mexico hold their first official round of negotiations as part of a review of their trilateral trade deal with Canada (USMCA).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

· Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

· Paraguay PPI (April)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping appears to be preparing for a meeting with North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang sometime this week (but no official announcement has been made, and the meeting may take place in early June – Reuters and other news services report Chinese security teams and advance teams have been in the North Korean capital preparing for a visit).

· Venezuela’s Interim President Delcy Rodriguez travels to India for talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The meeting will mostly focus on oil supplies for India.

· Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic will visit China through May 28th.

· Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan will visit China through May 26th.

· Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnivirakoul will visit France through May 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Thailand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Malaysia Coincident Index (March/ Leading Index (March)/ PPI (April)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (April)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Whit Monday, a holiday in most European countries. Most financial markets and banks are closed.

· A delegation of the Security and Defence Committee will travel to Canada to hold policy discussions with officials, political counterparts, and experts, on deepening EU-Canada defense cooperation, including the country’s participation in the SAFE program. MEPs will also discuss Canada's participation in peacekeeping operations, NATO, support for Ukraine, Arctic security, and the supply of critical raw materials.

· The UK Parliament is in recess until June 1.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May)

· Poland Retail Sales (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

· EARNINGS: Salvatore Ferragamo, Pharma Mar

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Jordan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Development Bank will hold its annual meeting in the capital of the Republic of the Congo, Brazzaville, from May 29th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: Upholding the Purposes and Principles of the UN Charter and Strengthening the UN-centered International System. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will chair the session. UN Secretary-General António Guteres will deliver remarks.

· Muslims around the world will observe Eid al-Adha through May 30th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are out of session this week.

· The Texas Republican senate primary run-off is held.

· NASA will hold a press conference to update on its moon base plans and highlight progress towards a sustained presence on the lunar surface.

· Today is Independence Day in Guyana, a national holiday.

· President Trump gets a medical and dental checkup at Walter Reed Hospital in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nicolas Vincent, External Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en analyse des organisations (CIRANO).

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (April)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

· EARNINGS: AutoZone, Semtech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India will host the Quad foreign ministers meeting in New Delhi, with the ongoing Iran war expected to figure prominently in discussions. The gathering, to be presided over by Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, is scheduled to be attended by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. Marcos begins a four-day visit to Japan. This coincides with the 70th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic ties between Manila and Tokyo. The visit will feature a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, during which the two leaders are expected to upgrade relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership and discuss critical regional issues like maritime security and energy cooperation.

· The MRO Greater China Industry Show begins in Beijing, China. Approximately 200 domestic and international exhibitors will be there, focusing on “operation and maintenance of domestic large aircraft and the digital transformation of civil aviation.”

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Singapore Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (April)

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Japan Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index (March)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Economic Minster Katherina Reiche travels to Beijing, China for meetings. BASF CEO Markus Kamieth will accompany her. BASF recently opened a €9 billion complex in Zhanjiang – BASF’s largest investment ever.

· The EU’s 8th Accession Conference with Albania will be held in Brussels. The meeting will serve to confirm the fulfilment of the interim benchmarks by Albania and to set closing benchmarks for Cluster 1 'Fundamentals', including Chapters 23 - judiciary and fundamental rights, and 24 - justice, freedom and security, the functioning of democratic institutions, public administration reform and economic criteria. The Cluster also includes Chapters 5 – public procurement, 18 – statistics, and 32 - financial control.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the availability and affordability of fertilizers in the EU, following the presentation of the Fertilizer Action Plan by the European Commission.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will start preparations for the June European Council meeting by discussing the annotated draft agenda. The agenda includes a discussion among the European Council on Ukraine, the Middle East, the next multiannual financial framework, overall global economic challenges, common European defense and security issues, and migration.

· The UK Parliament is out of session this week.

· Today is Independence Day in Georgia, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank publishes its Consolidated Financial Statement for the Eurosystem.

· The European Central Bank presents “Financial Stability Review Special Feature: Stress in global private credit and its implications for euro area financial stability.”

· UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (May)/ CBI Distributive Trades (May)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

· Spain PPI (April)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (April)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Finance Magnates Africa Summit, which focuses on trading, takes place in Cape Town.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Global

· The United Nations is closed for an official holiday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to New York for a two-day set of meeting with institutional investors, CEOs, and other business leaders. While there, he will address the Economic Club of New York on his economic agenda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Monetary Policy Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on Global Economic Developments and the U.S. Economy at the Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference, Tokyo, Japan.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on AI, the economy, and the financial system at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) Policy Forum, Stanford, California.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in “Policy Panel Discussion 1: Monetary Policy and Imbalances" before the 2026 Monetary Policy from New Perspectives Conference hosted by the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/22)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/22)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/22)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (May/23)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (May)/ Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/22)

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)

· EARNINGS: Salesforce, Bank of Montreal, Bank of Nova Scotia, National Bank of Canada, Agilent, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Best Buy, EQB, Marvell

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong International Airport opens an expanded Terminal 2, aiming to enhance its competitiveness as a regional hub. The airport says about 15 carriers will operate out of the new facility, flying mostly short-haul and regional routes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference will begin in Tokyo, Japan through May 28th. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivers opening remarks.

· South Korea Business Confidence (May)

· Australia Construction Work Done Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (April)/ CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (April)/

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

· Philippines Budget Balance (April)

· Japan BoJ Gov Ueda Speech

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 62nd European Economic Area Council meets in Brussels. Under the Presidency of Michael Damianos, Minister of Energy, Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Cyprus, representing the Presidency of the Council of the EU. The meeting will be attended by Espen Barth Eide, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Norway Sabine Monauni, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Environment and Culture of Liechtenstein, and Martin Eyjólfsson, Permanent Secretary of State of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Iceland, as well as by representatives of the European Commission and the European External Action Service. The members of the EEA Council will discuss the overall functioning of the Agreement on the European Economic Area (EEA Agreement) and hold an orientation debate on ‘Ensuring competitiveness and green growth in the Internal Market.”

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers - Gymnich through May 28th in Limassol, Cyprus.

· Members of the European Parliament’s s standing delegation for relations with China will travel to Beijing for the 43rd EU-China interparliamentary meeting with counterparts from the National People’s Congress. This is the first such gathering held in China following the lifting of Chinese sanctions against European lawmakers, political bodies, researchers and organizations.

· UK energy regulator Ofgem announces an update to the energy price cap for the period July 1 to September 30th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Euro Area New Car Registrations (April)

· France Consumer Confidence (May)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/Job Seekers Total (April)

· Italy Industrial Sales (March)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

· Russia Industrial Production (April)

· EARNINGS: Manchester United

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic &Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Healthcare Innovation Summit Africa will be held in Johannesburg, South Africa through May 28th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 28, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit Canada through May 30th. This is the first time a Chinese foreign minister will have visited China in 10 years. He will meet with Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand to discuss the recently updated Canada-China Strategic Partnership.

· US Vice President JD Vance speaks at the US Air Force Academy’s commencement ceremony in Colorado.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Canada releases the 2026 Financial Stability Report.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Reykjavík Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University in Reykjavik, Iceland.

· Brazil Bank Lending (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)

· USA Building Permits (April)/ Durable Goods Orders (April)/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Personal Income (April)/ Personal Spending (April)/ Corporate Profits Q1/ Durable Goods Orders Ex Trans (April)/ GDP Price Index 2nd Est Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/23)/ PCE Price Index (April)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/16)/ PCE Prices 2nd Est Q1/ Durable Goods Orders ex Defense (April)/ GDP Sales 2nd Est Q1/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/23)/ Non-Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (April)/ Real Consumer Spending 2nd Est Q1/ Real Personal Spending (April)/ New Home Sales (April)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (May/22)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/27)

· Canada Current Account Q1/ Average Weekly Earnings (March)/ BoC Financial Stability Report

· Columbia Business Confidence (April)

· EARNINGS: Royal Bank of Canada, TD Bank, CIBC, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, Dollar Tree, NetApp, Gap, BRP

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Humanoid Summit begins in Tokyo, Japan. The global conference is dedicated to humanoid robots and physical artificial intelligence. The two-day event will feature live robot demonstrations and speeches by industry leaders, with participants from companies including Google DeepMind, Boston Dynamics and Toyota Motor.

· Kazakhstan will host a Eurasian Economic Union summit in Astana. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend.

· A new ferry service is scheduled to connect Taiwan's Keelung, near Taipei, with the picturesque island of Ishigaki in Japan's Okinawa. The first sailing is due to depart late Thursday and arrive around 8 a.m. the next morning. The ferry will initially operate once a week on a trial basis, before expanding to two weekly round trips.

· Azerbaijan celebrates the founding of their democracy today.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/23)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

· New Zealand NZ Business Confidence (May)/ Budget 2026

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q1/ Household Spending (April)/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q1/ Private Capital Expenditure Q1

· Thailand New Car Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

· Hong Kong Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Finance Ministers of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain will issue a joint statement outlining political compromises aimed at advancing the bloc's Savings and Investments Union. Many observers see the effort as a step toward breaking the political deadlocks preventing the bloc from creating a U.S.-style financial market in a crunch meeting later this month.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the Industrial Accelerator Act: how best to leverage access to the Single Market through European preference and low-carbon requirements. The Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA) is a flagship legislative proposal aimed at strengthening European industrial competitiveness with the objective that by 2035 20% of the EU’s GDP should come from the industrial sector. It includes measures such as speeding up permitting, boosting demand for low carbon or "Made in EU" products, and controlling foreign investment. It was adopted by the Commission on March 4, 2026. They will also hold a discussion on the 28th Corporate Legal Framework. They will then move to approve a Council conclusion on “building a sustainable and competitive tourism for the future.” The Council will then move to discuss the impact of the crisis in the Middle East on the EU tourism sector as well as key challenges facing the European Chemical industry.

· The second day of informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers – Gymnich takes places in Limassol, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 28th meeting of Francophone Central Bank Governors in Phnom Penh, Cambodia.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech followed by Q&A at a public event entitled "Euro Digitale e Sovranità Europea" organized by Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat to discuss the “Monetary Policy from New Perspectives" organized by Bank of Japan and Japan-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies in Tokyo, Japan. Later, he gives a pre-recorded video address to the External Statistics Conference jointly organized by Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics, ECB and National Bank of Poland in Krakow, Poland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a public lecture as part of the Selten Salon organized by ECONtribute in Cologne, Germany.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden participates in a fireside chat at the 58th International Capital Market Association annual general meeting and conference in London.

· The European Central Bank account of the last monetary policy meeting is published.

· UK Car Production (April)

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Selling Price Expectations (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

· France PPI (April)

· Spain Retail Sales (April)/ Business Confidence (May)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ PPI (April)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

· Ireland Retail Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Ethiopia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, May 29, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on South Sudan sanctions, followed by consultations on the 1718 Committee (regarding North Korea).

· G7 Digital Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. hosts "security track" discussions between Israel and Lebanon in Washington, D.C.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on the economic outlook before the Chamber of Commerce Southern New Jersey.

· Brazil Government Budget Value (April)/ Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Net Payrolls (April)

· Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1/ GDP (March)/ GDP (April)/ GDP Implicit Price Q1/ Budget Balance (March)

· USA Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (April)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (April)/Chicago PMI (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/29)

· Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

· Columbia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Cement Production (April)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shangri-La Dialogue beings in Singapore. Asia's largest annual defense conference will feature U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, while top military generals and admirals and security analysts are expected to discuss global geopolitical tensions and Asia's maritime security. An AUKUS defense ministers meeting involving Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. is also planned on the sidelines of the conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ ANZ Business Confidence (May)

· South Korea Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (May)/ Tokyo CPI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)/ Business Confidence (April)

· Australia Housing Credit (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)

· Singapore Bank Lending (April)/Import/Export Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

· Thailand Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption (April)/ Private Investment (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

· India GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Fiscal Year GDP Growth 3rd Est 2025-26/ Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Bank Loan Growth (May/15)/ Deposit Growth (May/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/22)/ M3 Money Supply (May/15)

· EARNINGS: JTB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the legislative measures linked to the 10th framework program for research and innovation 2028-2034, also known as the Horizon Europe package. Horizon Europe is the EU’s key funding program for research and innovation. On 16 July 2025, the European Commission put forward its proposal for the 10th framework program, with a €175 billion budget, as part of the 2028-2034 multiannual financial framework (MFF). The will also move to adopt a Council recommendation for an EU framework for science diplomacy.

· The Nato Parliamentary Assembly Spring Session begins in Lithuania.

· The foreign ministers of Poland, Estonia and Iceland will meet in Warsaw, Poland after the Council of the Baltic Sea States meeting.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

· Germany Import Prices (April)/ Unemployed Persons (May)/ Unemployment Change (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

· UK Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

· France Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Final Q1/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)// Household Consumption (April)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

· Spain Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Current Account (March)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)

· Poland Inflation Rate (May)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies (April)/ Loans to Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

· Ireland Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Greece PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

· Ukraine Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Budget Balance (April)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 30, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Speech Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2026, Reykjavik, Iceland.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Malta holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Catherine L Mann participates on a panel at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference ‘Central bank independence under attack’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on stablecoins at the 32nd Dubrovnik Economic Conference, Orašac, Croatia

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Jay Powell gives acceptance remarks at the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremony, Boston, Mass.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)/ NBS General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee Megan Greene: Panel at the 32nd Dubrovnic Economics Conference ‘Stablecoins and monetary policy’, Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea holds elections for its National Assembly as well as municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/22/26 Francis Kelly 5/22/26

The Global Week Ahead

Iran Tensions Spike with Drone Strike on UAE Nuclear Plant, Putin Meets Xi in Beijing, Japan’s Prime Minister Travels to South Korea, and Flash Global PMIs to Show Iran War Impact on Global Economy

May 17 - 24, 2026

Markets are still working through the details of President Trump’s visit to Beijing last week for meetings with President Xi Jinping. While expectations for any big breakthroughs on trade or Iran were low going into the meeting, there was hope for other large deals, such as major new agricultural deals and airplane purchases. It often takes a few weeks following summits like this for deals to be finalized as sticky details are still being worked out.

President Trump did tell reporters that China will purchase 200+ Boeing aircraft. However, President Trump has predicted China would purchase 750 planes, Boeing was hoping for 500, and in the end, it appears only 200 are being purchased. However, China has not commented on the matter. And no new major US agricultural purchases were agreed to during the summit, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

But just as President Trump was leaving, it was confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will arrive in Beijing on May 20th for bilateral meetings with President Xi. The meeting is framed around the 25th anniversary of the Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation signed by the two countries in 2001.

Putin is also likely to seek progress on long-delayed projects such as Mongolia. Russia remains heavily dependent on Chinese markets and financial channels after years of Western sanctions.

But according to a Russian presidential spokesman, Putin and Xi will "exchange views" on Xi's meeting with Trump, and Moscow hopes to obtain that information "first-hand." But US officials we have spoken with say the broader subtext is that Beijing is visibly balancing between Washington and Moscow — hosting both leaders in quick succession, signaling China's intent to remain indispensable to both sides, particularly as Ukraine negotiations and the US-Iran conflict create competing pressures on the global order.

Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will travel to South Korea this week for meetings with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. The visit is part of an effort to strengthen previously tense relations between the two nations while also building mutual security and economic ties in the face of growing Chinese maritime aggression. This is likely to include signing an agreement to share weapons, ammunition, and jet fuel during “times of emergency.”

The two leaders will almost surely discuss growing concerns about the situation in Iran and the serious disruption it is causing to oil and gas imports, as well as helium imports, a critical component in the construction of semiconductors.

Meanwhile, the Iranian situation has become significantly more complicated and worrisome this weekend when three drones – presumably Iranian – reportedly hit the perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Plant in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The plant is the only nuclear power plant in the Arab world and supplies approximately 25 percent of the USA’s electricity needs. The highly provocative act ratchets up even further tensions and frustrations with Iran and will almost force President Trump and the UAE to respond militarily – especially as President Trump has already called the ceasefire “on life support”.

Here in the Western Hemisphere, the EU-Mexico Summit will take place in Mexico City. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa will sign two landmark agreements: The Modernized Global Agreement (MGA) – a comprehensive political/economic partnership agreement, and the Interim Trade Agreement (ITA), which has been given preliminary approval by all 27 EU member states earlier this month. The ITA is expected to improve bilateral trade by 35% over the next five years, with a heavy focus on pharmaceuticals, automotive production, agri-food, and advanced manufacturing.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, this is Kevin Warsh’s first week as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. The Fed will release the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, and they are expected to show growing concern about inflationary pressures, mostly due to the Iran War. And watch for signs of growing Fed sentiment to raise rates later this year.

In terms of major economic reports this week, in the US, new residential construction data and pending home sales are out on Tuesday. On Thursday, initial jobless claims are released, and on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment is released. The whole week will be busy with corporate earnings, including Nvidia, Target, Lowe’s, Intuit, Walmart, Deere & Co, and Target.

In Europe this week, the UK reports labor market figures on Tuesday and April inflation data on Wednesday. We will also see flash PMIs for the UK, Germany, and France on Thursday. And Germany releases the Ifo Survey on Friday.

In Asia, Japan releases several major data reports, including Q1 GDP on Tuesday and April CPI on Friday. China releases industrial production, retail sales, and residential and commercial real estate property prices on Tuesday. And South Korea is set to release the April PPI on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, May 17, 2026

Global

· The UN World Urban Forum begins in Baku, Azerbaijan and runs through May 22nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· In Washington, D.C., the National Jubilee of Prayer gathering of Christians on the National Mall will take place. This is a part of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

· Cuba holds municipal primary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The extended Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire will expire at midnight.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Cabo Verde holds legislative elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 18, 2026

Global

· G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Paris, France through May 19th.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Victory Day in Canada, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed.

· U.S. Ambassador to Denmark Kenneth Howery and special envoy to Greenland Jeff Landry will travel to Nuuk, Greenland, through May 20 to participate in the Future Greenland Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang speaks at the Dell Technologies World Annual Convention in Las Vegas, Nevada.

· Interim Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Cheryl Venable gives welcome remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking".

· Brazil IGP-10 Inflation (May)/IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Current Account Q1/GDP Growth Rate Q1

· USA NY Fed Services Activity Index (May)/NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippine senate convenes for the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. The trial centers on charges including bribery, corruption and a high-profile threat against the president's life. Convicting the vice president requires at least a two-thirds majority.

· The Australian Energy Producers Conference is held in Adelaide through May 21st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (April)/Services NZ PSI (April)

· Singapore Balance of Trade (April)/Non-Oil Exports (April

· China House Price Index (April)/Industrial Production (April)/Retail Sales (April)/Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)

· EARNINGS: Baidu, Nidec

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels. Ministers will discussion he Council will discuss the future of the EU’s external action taking into consideration shifting geopolitical and geoeconomic contexts. Discussions will focus on how development cooperation can promote sustainable development in partner countries while advancing the EU’s strategic interests, as well as explore ways to strengthen the EU’s global role as a reliable partner. Ministers will also exchange views on the role of the Global Gateway strategy in the EU’s external action. The strategy mobilizes public and private resources to support sustainable investments in key sectors worldwide.

· The UK’s Labour lawmakers will gather for the first time in the wake of the May 7 local electoral losses and Health Secretary Wes Streeting's resignation.

· The European Parliament Plenary is held in Strasbourg through May 21st. Key files on the agenda: a new law to improve the protection of EU strategic sectors from risky foreign investments, a debate/resolution on rule of law, fundamental rights and misuse of EU funds in Slovakia, new legislation on protection of victims of crimes, the gender care gap, and legislation to mitigate global steel overcapacity on the EU market. President Metsola will also confer the inaugural European Order of Merit during a ceremony in the hemicycle, marking the 75th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration. Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan is scheduled to address plenary ahead of Armenia's 7 June elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB Board Member Paulo Cipollone participate in theG7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at the 3rd Sustainability Standards Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at a conference "Research and Market Perspectives on the Evolving Bank Supervisory and Regulatory Landscape" organized by European University Institute/Bank Policy Institute in San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy.

· The European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve Board, and the Euro Area Business Cycle Network cohost the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Martin Kocher, ECB board member and governor of the Austrian National Bank, and his Hungarian counterparty Mihaly Varga, speak in Budapest, Hungary.

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene participates on a panel discussion at the Financial Times Business of Luxury Summit in London.

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Committee Catherine Mann participates on a panel at the Lamfulussy Conference in Budapest, Hungary.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability Nathanael Benjamin speaks at the University of Glasglow Adam Smith Business School.

· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Flash Q1

· Italy Balance of Trade (March)

· Romania Current Account (March)

· Poland Inflation Rate (April)

· Belarus Industrial Production (April)

· Russia Current Account Q1

· EARNINGS: Ryanair, Sonova

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks at the Samson International Smart Mobility Summit in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

· Jordon Industrial Production (March)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nigeria's ruling All Progressives Congress party will hold primary elections to select candidates for the Senate in the country's 2027 general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

Tuesday, May 19, 2026

Global

· G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Paris.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates in a policy panel at the International Research Forum on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks before a dinner at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking.”

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank First Vice President Cheryl Venable gives closing remarks before the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 2026 Financial Markets Conference: “Technology’s Transformative Role in Finance and Central Banking."

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/Redbook (May/16)/Pending Home Sales (April)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/15)/Fed Venable Speech

· Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ New Housing Price Index (April)/Building Permits (March)/CPI Common (April)/CPI Median (April)/CPI Trimmed-Mean (April)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

· Columbia Imports/Balance of Trade (March)

· EARNINGS: Home Depot, Toll Brothers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Andong, South Korea, through May 20th. Takaichi is expected to discuss energy security cooperation amid disruptions to crude oil supplies caused by the US-Israel war on Iran, which has spilled over to the wider Middle East region. The two leaders are also expected to discuss beefing up critical mineral supply chains. The meeting is likely to take place in Andong, Lee's hometown in southeastern South Korea. This would be part of so-called shuttle diplomacy or mutually visits by Japanese and South Korean leaders to each other's country — Lee visited Takaichi's home prefecture of Nara in January, so this is the reciprocal leg. The hometown symbolism is deliberate Japan-South Korea relationship-building optics.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attends the third India-Nordic summit in Oslo and meets his Norwegian counterpart Jonas Gahr Store as well as leaders from Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden. Following two earlier summits held in Stockholm in 2018 and in Copenhagen in 2022, the visit will focus on areas including technology, renewable energy, defense and cooperation in the Arctic. He will then travel to Rome, Italy for meetings with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Bloomberg Forum for Investment Managers in Sydney.

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/PPI Input/Output Q1

· Japan GDP Growth Rate Q1/GDP Growth Annualized Q1/GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/GDP External Demand Q1/GDP Price Index Q1/GDP Private Consumption Q1/Capacity Utilization (March)/Industrial Production (March)/Tertiary Industry Index (March)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (May)/Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/RBA Meeting Minutes

· China FDI (YTD) (April)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/M3 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Negotiators from EU member states, the European Commission and the European Parliament will hold another round of interinstitutional talks on legislation to implement the July 2025 EU-U.S. trade framework agreement.

· NATO Chiefs of Defense Military Committee, NATO’s highest military authority, meets in Brussels.

· The Mediterranean Forum takes place in Athens, Greece through May 21st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a panel discussion at The International Research Forum on Monetary Policy 2026 organized by the Euro Area Business Cycle Network, the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Board in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote address at the AFME’s European Financial Integration Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· AFME’s European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt. Speakers include ECB Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives speech at the City Week Conference entitled “The Future of Money in the Digital World: A Central Banker’s Perspective” in London.

· Belarus GDP (April)

· UK Unemployment Rate (March)/Average Earnings incl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (March)/Employment Change (March)/Average Earnings excl. Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (March)/Claimant Count Change (April)/HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/Labor Productivity Q1

· Spain Balance of Trade (March)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

· EARNINGS: Shell, Euronext, DCC, Diploma

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Turkey Auto Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Global

· G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meet in Paris, France.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Protection of Civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

· Political/Social Events –

· Primary elections are held in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on “Consumer Financial Health Metrics” at the Financial Health Network’s (FHN) EMERGE Financial Health 2026 Conference, Atlanta, Georgia.

· Federal Reserve’s FOMC Minutes released.

· Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson speaks on economic outlook at the Atlanta Fed’s 2026 Financial Markets Conference in Atlanta, Georgia.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/MBA Mortgage Applications (May/15)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/15)/MBA Purchase Index (May/15)/EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (May/15)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

· EARNINGS: Nvidia, Analog Devices, Intuit, Lowe’s, Target

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The talks are likely to focus on energy cooperation, sanctions-resistant payment systems, and broader coordination within multilateral groupings such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The visit is also expected to renew the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship signed in 2001. The timing is deliberately choreographed against Trump's just-concluded Beijing trip, positioning Xi as the central diplomatic broker.

· Taiwanese President William Lai will give a speech marking the anniversary of his inauguration that could spur Chinese military drills.

· The Sohn Hong Kong Investment Leaders Conference begins in Hong Kong. Recognized as one of the most sought-after gatherings in the region, the Sohn Hong Kong Conference brings together Asia's brightest investment minds, offering attendees unparalleled insights into markets and investment strategies.

· The DealStreetAsia Asia PE Leadership Summit is being held in Hong Kong. This is DealStreetAsia’s first conference in Asia and focused on PE/VC capital allocation amid the China deleveraging and US-China decoupling backdrop.

· Today is Independence Day in East Timor, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y/Loan Prime Rate 5Y (May)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/19)

· Malaysia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/Deposit Facility Rate (May)/Lending Facility Rate (May)/Loan Growth (April)

· Taiwan Export Orders (April)/Current Account Q1

· India Infrastructure Output (April)

· EARNINGS: Tokio Marine, Sompo Japan Nip, MS&AD Insurance

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Emmanuel Moulin, nominee for Bank of France governor, appears before the Senate Finance Committee in Paris, France.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will appear before the UK Parliament’s Treasury Committee to answer questions about the economy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank Governing Council holds a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey speaks at the Bloomberg Global Markets & Banking Summit in London.

· Germany PPI (April)

· UK Inflation Rate (April)/PPI Input/Output (April)/Retail Price Index (April)

· Hungary Gross Wage (March)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ Inflation Rate (April)/CPI (April)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)

· Poland Consumer Confidence (May)

· Italy Construction Output (March)

· Russia PPI (April)

· EARNINGS: Marks & Spencer, Keller, Severn Trent, British Land,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Government Debt (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The ICT4D Conference 2026 begins in Nairobi, Kenya and runs through May 22.

· Today is Republic Day in Cameroon, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/Retail Sales (March)

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, May 21, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federa; Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin speaks on the economy to the Urban Land Institute Triangle in Wilmington, North Carolina.

· Mexico Retail Sales (March)/Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· USA Building Permits (April)/Housing Starts (April)/Initial Jobless Claims (May/16)/Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/Continuing Jobless Claims (May/09)/Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/16)/Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/Philly Fed Employment (May)/Philly Fed New Orders (May)/Philly Fed Prices Paid (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/15)/Kansas Fed Composite Index (May)/Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/21)/30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/21)/Fed Balance Sheet (May/20)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/Economic Activity (March)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

· Peru Current Account Q1

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

· EARNINGS: Walmart, John Deere, Ross stores, Zoom, CAE

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Samsung Electronics unionists vow to go for an all-out strike in their pursuit of 15% of the company's operating profit for employee bonuses. Management is fighting back and worries that it could weaken the company's competitiveness and cause a shareholder backlash. Samsung's labor dispute sparked national debate on how to distribute profits in the semiconductor industry -- one senior government official suggested paying a dividend to the public with tax revenue from Samsung and its rival SK Hynix.

· JPMorgan’s Global China Summit takes place in Shanghai, with CEO Jamie Dimon set to attend. Through May 22nd.

· In Hong Kong, the annual Cheung Chau Bun Festival begins, peaking with the Piu Sik Parade on Sunday, followed by the Bun Scrambling Final next Monday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Committee Junko Koeda gives a speech to local business leaders in Fukuoka, Japan.

· South Korea PPI (April)

· New Zealand Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/Credit Card Spending (April)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/Employment Change (April)/Full Time Employment Change (April)/Unemployment Rate (April)/Part Time Employment Change (April)/Participation Rate (April)

· Japan Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)/Machinery Orders (March)/Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/16)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)

· India HSBC Composite PMI Flash (May)/HSBC Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/HSBC Services PMI Flash (May)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

· South Africa Building Permits (March)/Consumer Confidence (May)

· EARNINGS: Lenova, Singapore Telecommunications

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Foreign Ministers meet in Helsingborg, Sweden through May 22nd. The agenda will center on increased defense spending, more defense production, and maintaining strong support for Ukraine. On the sidelines, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to discuss Nordic defense issues.

· The Transport Research Arena Conference in Budapest, Hungary.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a lecture at University of Oxford in Oxford, UK.

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor speaks virtually at the MNI Connect event in London.

· Slovakia Current Account (March)/Unemployment Rate (April)

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

· France S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/Employment Growth (April)/Industrial Production (April)/PPI (April)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/Current Account (March)/Current Account s.a (March)/Construction Output (March)/Labor Cost Index Flash Q1/Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

· Italy Current Account (March)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)/PPI (April)

· United Kingdom S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Services PMI Flash (May)/S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (May)/CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)

· EARNINGS: BT, Swiss Life, Tate & Lyle, Nationwide Building Society

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 22, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

• Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Centre for Central Banking Guest Lecture in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Argentina Leading Indicator (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

• Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Retail Sales Ex Autos (March)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Retail Sales (April)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

• Mexico Economic Activity (March)/Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

• USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)/ CB Leading Index (April)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (May)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)/ Michigan Current Conditions (May)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May)/22/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/22)

• Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

• EARNINGS: Booz Allen, BJ’s Wholesale

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· APEC Trade Ministers meet in Suzhou, China through May 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

· New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

· Japan Inflation Rate (April)/Inflation Rate Ex-Food and Energy (April)

· Indonesia Current Account Q1/M2 Money Supply (April)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

· India Bank Loan Growth (May/15)/ Deposit Growth (May/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/15)/ M3 Money Supply (May/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Lefkosia, Cyprus. Leaders will discuss macroeconomic developments in the Euro area, Euro area competitiveness, and the digital Euro.

· The 8th EU-Mexico Summit takes place in Mexico City, Mexico. António Costa, President of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, will be meeting Claudia Sheinbaum, President of Mexico. They will be discussing an EU-Mexico Trade Agreement, and a number of joint cooperative priorities including the fight against organized crime, climate action and environmental protection, advancing energy security and the energy transition

research and innovation and people-to-people contacts and academic exchanges

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. Ministers will EU trade ministers will receive an update on economic security, with a particular focus on the impact of the conflict in Middle East on trade. The ongoing hostilities in the region have generated significant trade disruptions worldwide, and ministers will address the short- and long-term consequences.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers in Brussels through May 23.

· The CIS Heads of Government meeting takes place in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will speak at a the Eurogroup press conference in Cyprus.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the opening address at the 2026 Asian Monetary Policy Forum (AMPF) in Singapore.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Boris Vujcic, Peter Kazimir and Madis Muller speak at a financial literacy roundtable in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (April)

· Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q1, Wholesale Prices (April)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (March)

· Euro Area Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUN/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

· France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)

· Poland Business Confidence (May)

· Greece Current Account (March)/ Current Account (February)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (April)

· EARNINGS: Richemont

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/15), Balance of Trade (April)/ Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Imports/Exports (April)/ Financial Stability Report

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (April)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Cyprus holds parliamentary elections.

· Italy holds municipal elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea holds National Assembly elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 5/15/26 Francis Kelly 5/15/26

Russia’s Shrunken Victory Parade and The Rapidly Disappearing Putin

May 5, 2026

The Cheshire Cat of Russia: We will see this coming Saturday, the 81st Victory Day Parade in Moscow, commemorating Russia's victory over Nazi Germany. But it is going to be a very different event as President Vladimir Putin has ordered that no tanks, armored vehicles, missile systems, or large formations of soldiers be a part of it. A massive scale back in size and scale. In its place will be air shows and large video feeds supposedly from the Russian frontlines in Ukraine.

Why the big change? Simply out of fear of the increasingly effective rise of the Ukrainian drone. Ukrainian drones breached Russian air defenses on Monday, only a few miles from the Kremlin. Moreover, the Russian Army is deploying an extensive anti-drone netting system over most of Red Square and the parade route.

Ukraine drones now have a range capability of more than 1,000 miles inside Russia, destroying military-industrial facilities, oil refiners, and other energy infrastructure targets. These strikes have hit as far as the Ural Mountains and the Perm region.

For the Russian people, Putin's Ukraine War is now increasingly coming home to them, driving up gasoline prices and increasingly worrying the general population about what comes next.

Today (5 May 2026), the Financial Times published an interesting piece about how Putin is increasingly hunkered down, noting that his public appearances have dramatically decreased over the last three years out of fear of assassination. But that begs a very important question: Is he simply fearful of being taken out by Ukrainians or by increasingly unhappy Russians, or both? One thing is clear: Putin is acting like a man who is increasingly scared and desperately trying to hold onto control. Where that leads Russia, and the implications for the future trajectory of the Ukraine War, need to be thought through and discussed much more than they are now.

Francis Kelly 5/4/26 Francis Kelly 5/4/26

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The SEC Holds Its Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation, Warsh Teed Up for Confirmation Vote, and a Breakthrough in Crypto Legislation

May 4 - 8, 2026

Congress is out of session this week, but the regulators are remaining quite busy. The big event of the week is arguably the Milken Institute Conference, being held in Beverly Hills, California. Speaking will be a small army of CEOs, as well as SEC Chair Paul Atkins, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and a number of senior members of Congress.

Meanwhile, the SEC’s Division of Economic and Risk Analysis holds its 13th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation. Held in conjunction with and done in partnership with Lehigh University’s Center for Financial Services and the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business as part of a two-day event to discuss Commission-related topics and priorities. SEC Chair Paul Atkins and Commissioners Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda will be speaking. We suspect there will be a lot of questions on the Commission’s forthcoming proposal to let publicly traded companies cut quarterly reporting to twice a year. It is not clear yet when the SEC will release the proposal, but we expect it in the next two weeks. The draft proposal was signed off by the White House on Friday.

The Financial Stability Oversight Council will be meeting on Tuesday at the U.S. Treasury. In a press release issued Friday, the meeting will be held solely in executive session. The preliminary agenda for the executive session includes “a presentation on the Council’s Market Resilience Working Group; a presentation on the Council’s Financial Market Utilities Committee; and a discussion on stablecoins.”

One other issue, which seems to be getting bigger and more controversial by the day in Washington, is the growth of prediction markets. Just before leaving for the week, the Senate unanimously voted to ban senators and all staff from participating in prediction markets. Congress is growing increasingly concerned about abuses in the market and is pressing the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to move more aggressively to regulate them. There are more than 10 bills floating around Capitol Hill now targeting prediction markets, all aimed at tightening regulations to prohibit insider trading.

Meanwhile, there appears to be movement on cryptocurrency legislation that had been opposed by Wall Street. The dispute came down to whether digital asset exchanges should be able to pay annual percentage yields to stablecoin holders via rewards programs. The deal, negotiated by Senators Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), means the landmark legislation is likely to pass when the Senate returns from its break. Banks opposed crypto firms being allowed to offer yield-like payments on stablecoins.

The Senate Banking Committee also moved on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve Chair. The committee voted 13-11, and the full Senate is expected to confirm Warsh the week of May 11th.

Finally, we would note that President Trump signed an executive order aimed at expanding access to retirement plans for workers who may not have access through their employer. According to The Hill, Trump’s order coincides with the launch of Saver’s Match, which offers up to $1,000 a year in matching retirement contributions for lower-income workers.

According to a Pew analysis in April 2024, 22 million Americans can benefit from the Saver’s Match, with a maximum match of $1,000 per person and $2,000 per married couple filing jointly. Joint filers who earn $41,000 or less will qualify for the maximum match rate of 50 percent. Single tax filers must earn less than $35,500, and the cap on joint filers is $71,000, in order to qualify for a full or partial match, according to Retirement Clearinghouse.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is not in session this coming week.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is not in session this week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Wednesday, May 6, 3:10 p.m. – White House Digital Assets Director Patrick Witt is interviewed at the Consensus Crypto Conference in Miami, Florida.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, May 4, 12:50 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium.

· Tuesday, May 5, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium, Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, May 5, 12:30 p.m. (UK) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on banking regulation at an event with Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods in Oxford, United Kingdom.

· Thursday, May 7, 2:05 p.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Fed 101 and policy” in a fireside chat before the 2026 Ohio CEO Summit: “Blueprints for Bold Leadership.”

· Thursday, May 7, 3:30 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in moderated discussion before event organized by the Hudson Valley Pattern for Progress.

· Thursday & Friday, May 7 & 8 – The 7th Vienna Global Macro Workshop takes place at the Federal Reserve Board Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

· Friday, May 8, 5:45 am. (Senegal) – Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech entitled “Perspectives on Tokenization and Implications for the Financial System” at the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) Conference on Digital Assets, Dakar, Senegal.

· Friday, May 8, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates on a policy panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California.

· Friday, May 8, 7:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman participates on a policy panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026, Stanford, California.

· Friday, May 8, 7:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participate in panel before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026,”Independence, Structure, and Risks Ahead for Central Banks.”

U.S. Treasury Department

· Tuesday, May 5, 10:30 a.m. – The Treasury Department holds a closed meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. Agenda includes: The economy; Financial markets; Treasury financing; Debt management; and Written report of its recommendations.

· Wednesday, May 6, 2:00 p.m. – The Financial Stability Oversight Council will meet at the U.S. Treasury. The meeting will be only in executive session. The preliminary agenda for the executive session includes a presentation on the Council’s Market Resilience Working Group; a presentation on the Council’s Financial Market Utilities Committee; and a discussion on stablecoins.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, May 4, 1:40 p.m. ET – SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins is participating in a session entitled “Advancing a Modern Regulatory Framework” at the Milken Institute’s Global Conference 2026.

· Thursday, May 7 & 8. – The SEC’s Division of Economic and Risk Analysis 13th Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation takes place at the SEC Headquarters in Washington, D.C. The two-day event to discuss Commission-related topics and priorities is done in partnership with Lehigh University’s Center for Financial Services and the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business. On May 7th, SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda will deliver opening remarks and SEC Chief Economist Josh White will also give remarks. On May 8th, SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will give opening remarks and SEC Chair Paul Atkins will deliver a keynote speech at 11:30 a.m.

· Thursday, May 7, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

· Friday, May 8, 11:05 p.m. – SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins will deliver a keynote speech at the AI+ Expo hosted by the Special Competitive Studies Project.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Wednesday, May 6, 4:10 p.m. – CFTC Chairman Mike Selig participates in a fireside chat at the Consensus Crypto Conference in Miami, Florida.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

· Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Nothing significant to report.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Thursday, May 7, 1:15 p.m. – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2026 Regulatory Reporting Seminar in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, May 5, 11:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a virtual discussion on “Housing Innovators: Building the Future of Affordable Housing.”

· Tuesday – Thursday, May 5 – 7 – the American Bankers Association holds its annual Risk and Compliance Conference in Charlotte, North Carolina.

· Wednesday, May 6, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds its Annual Insurance Colloquium in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 5/4/26 Francis Kelly 5/4/26

The Global Week Ahead

May 3 - 10, 2026

ASEAN Leaders Gather in the Philippines as EU Leaders Meet in Armenia, Russia’s Muted Victory Parade, Trump Readies for his China Trip, Iran Offers the U.S. New Terms, the UK Holds Important Local Elections, and Markets Await Another Big Earnings Week

As the world continues to scramble to understand and mitigate the growing economic risks emanating out of the Iran War, leaders in two key regions are going to be meeting this week to discuss it all. First, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will gather in Cebu, the Philippines. It is a packed agenda but top of mind is the skyrocketing cost of oil and the impact on national economies. Many of the member countries are highly dependent on Middle Eastern oil and are finding it increasingly difficult to find alternative sources. As a result, a number of countries have already implemented emergency measures such as the Philippines, Malaysia, and Vietnam.

Leaders will also be talking about ongoing regional security issues such as tensions in the South China Sea, the ongoing conflict in Myanmar, and simmering Cambodian-Thai border skirmishes.

Meanwhile, in Armenia, European leaders will be gathering for the European Political Community (EPC) Summit. This is the biggest gathering of European leaders in the South Caucasus ever. The EPC was established in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and includes 47 heads of state. Top of the agenda is the growing global economic crisis and what can be done to help bring an end to the Iran War.

Also attending will be Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney (as part of Canada’s growing political and economic relations as a result of seemingly non-stop trade tariffs from the U.S.) as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. All told, the gathering represents 24 percent of the global GDP and 690 people (almost nine percent of the global population).

On Saturday, Russia is holding its annual Victory Day Parade, celebrating its victory over Nazi Germany. But this parade held in Moscow - as well as parades held in other Russian cities – will be different from virtually every other parade held over the last 81 years as President Vladimir Putin has ordered a significant scaling back of the event, omitting tanks, armored vehicles, missile systems, and the traditional march of naval cadets. Putin, citing “terrorist threats” will only allow air force displays and some troop marching. The “terrorist threat” being attacks by Ukrainian drone forces which increasingly have successfully struck Russian military and oil/gas facilities deep inside Russia. Extensive netting is being put over Moscow streets where the parade is taking place to defend against possible drone strikes. The Ukrainian strikes are as deep as 2,000 kilometers into Russia. Moreover, Ukrainian forces have regained net territory for the first time since 2023 while Russian forces lost an estimated 35,000 soldiers killed or wounded in April alone. Clearly, the war is not going well for Russia.

Also of note in Europe this week are local elections in the UK. Widely seen as a likely indicator of the political future of the Labor Government and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, polls are suggesting a nationwide “anyone but Labour” vote. Depending on how rough the outcome is for the Labour Party, it could be a final blow to Starmer’s government and facilitate a call for new national elections.

In Asia, the big events is Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s three-day visit to Australia. This morning (Monday) she signed a new cooperation agreement with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to deepen trade on energy and critical minerals. This comes after the two countries signed a landmark defense deal.

ShareFinally, markets should expect to hear a lot more this coming week about President Trump’s upcoming visit to Beijing on May 14-15. The summit aims to stabilize U.S.-China relations, addressing trade, technology, and geopolitical tensions, and to seek cooperation regarding the Iran war. Indeed, it is likely Trump will look to Chinese President Xi to step up efforts to pressure Iran to move further on a deal. This trip represents the first visit to China by a U.S. president in nearly 10 years. President Trump will be accompanied by First Lady Melania Trump and his son, Eric Trump. We should expect an uptick on news reports and leaks from the Administration further detailing the U.S. goals and what markets should expect from the visit.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, starting in the U.S., jobs will be the big focus for markets. The JOLTS report is out on Tuesday, the ADP report on Wednesday, and the April jobs report on Friday. Additionally, the ISM Service Index on Tuesday, Q1 nonfarm payrolls on Thursday, and the jobs reports and the University of Michigan Consumer Survey on Friday.

In Europe, it is a relatively light data week. Germany reports factory orders on Tuesday and trade figures on Friday, and we will see the Eurozone March retail sales.

Turning to Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates on Tuesday, we will get a CPI report from South Koea on Wednesday along with PMI numbers from China.

But the big financial news of the week is the flood of corporate earnings reports this week. Markets (and Washington) will be focused on a number of companies and how they are being impacted by the Iran War and the growing impact from oil/gas and other shortages.

Below is our detailed report outlining the major geopolitical and economic events anticipated for the coming week:

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Global

· OPEC+ holds its monthly meeting.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Los Angeles, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Memorial Day in Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production YoY (April)/ Inflation Rate YoY (April)/ Retail Sales YoY (April)/ Tourist Arrivals YoY (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through May 5th in Lefkosia, Cyprus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives are out of session this week.

· This week, following President Trump’s announcement last week, 25% tariffs will be applied to all trucks and cars from Europe.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium in New York.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the 2026 Women in Housing and Finance Symposium, Washington, D.C.

· The Governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance. He will be accompanied by Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers.

· Mexico Business Confidence (April)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (March)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA Factory Orders (March)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (March)/Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Total Vehicle Sales (April)

· Columbia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (April)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

· EARNINGS: Palantir, Williams Companies, Diamondback Energy, Loews, Tyson Foods, Telus, CNA Financial, AES, Norwegian Cruise Line, Vaornado, NexGen Energy, Erop Copper, Alamo, Cargojet, Grupo MexicoGruop Carso, Inbursa, BB Seguridade

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India holds ballot counting for April elections held in four states, including politically crucial West Bengal that borders Bangladesh, and a federally governed territory. Results are expected on the same day. Most exit polls give an edge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party in West Bengal, which it has never ruled before. If these projections hold, it will give a massive boost to the BJP, whose traditional regional strongholds are the country’s north and west.

· China continues to celebrate Labor Day. Financial markets are closed.

· Today is Nature Day in Japan, a national holiday. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Tawain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)/Building Permits (March)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)/ Private House Approvals (March)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Brussels. Ministers will hear from the Chairs of the Single Supervisory Mechanism and of the Single Resolution Board as part of their twice-yearly reporting. They will also discuss cross-border banking issues with Slawomir Krupa, President of the European Banking Federation. Additionally, ministers will assess the impact of the Middle East conflict on the EU economy and will discuss policy measures to address the crisis. Ministers will also hear a presentation by Christian Noyer and Jörg Kukies on their recommendations for giving start-ups and scale-ups better access to private capital.

· The 8th Meeting of the European Political Community takes place in Yerevan, Armenia. ring together leaders from across the continent in Yerevan, Armenia, under the motto ‘Building the Future: Unity and Stability in Europe’. Leaders will discuss how to cooperate more closely and coordinate action to strengthen democratic resilience, advance connectivity and reinforce economic and energy security. The summit will be co-chaired by António Costa, the President of the European Council, and Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. The meeting will take place ahead of the first-ever EU-Armenia bilateral summit.

· The EU-Armenia Summit will take place through May 5th in Yerevan, Armenia. Leaders will discuss progress made with regard to ensuring peace, security, connectivity and prosperity in the South Caucasus. In August 2025, the EU welcomed the initialing of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty and the signing of a political declaration. This agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan marks a significant breakthrough to end decades of conflict and paves the way to lasting, sustainable peace for both countries and across the entire region.

· Finnish President Alexander Stubb will visit the Czech Republic.

· The German Forum on Security Policy begins in Berlin and runs through Thursday.

· Today is Early May Bank Holiday in the United Kingdom. The government, banks, and financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded interview at the joint ECB-Banca d’Italia-€ABCN-CEPR workshop on Digital assets and Monetary Policy Transmission in Rome, Italy.

· The European Central Bank publishes its 2026 annual report.

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Hungary PPI (March)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI APR

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (April)/ PPI (April)

· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· Euro Area S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ECB Buch Speech/ECB President Lagarde Speech/Eurogroup Meeting/ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

· EARNINGS: HSBC, AXA, Infineon, Ferrari, Ferguson, Leonardo SpA, Alcon AG, Logitech, Covestro, Fresenius Medical, Hugo Boss, Amplifon

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Following China’s May 1st expansion of zero-tariff access for 53 African states, trade ministries in major hubs (Nairobi, Lagos, and Cairo) are expected to hold briefings this week to outline the logistical framework for increased exports to Chinese markets.

· The World Press Freedom Day Global Conference takes place in Lusaka, Zambia. The UNESCO-backed summit is titled “Shaping a Future of Peace,” and gathers regional leaders and journalists. A major focal point will be the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on journalism—a timely topic given South Africa’s recent policy withdrawal due to AI-generated errors.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (April)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (April)

Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Global

· The G7 Trade Ministers meet in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S. Trade Representative is scheduled to begin public hearings on investigations into the trade practices of the European Union, China, Mexico, and other countries.

· In the United States, primary elections will be held in Indiana, Ohio, Nebraska, New Jersey, and West Virginia. This is the first major test of President Trump’s endorsement clout in 2026: he endorsed challengers to eight Indiana GOP state senators who voted down his congressional redistricting push, with allies spending millions to oust them. Results will be read as a referendum on his intra-party leverage heading into the midterms.

· Mexico will celebrate Cinco de Mayo, commemorating its 1862 military victory.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on banking regulation at an event with Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods in Oxford, United Kingdom.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)/Building Permits (February)/Building Permits (March)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ Redbook (May/02)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ JOLTs Job Openings (March)/New Home Sales (February)/New Home Sales (March)/ ISM Services Business Activity (April)/ ISM Services Employment (April)/ISM Services Prices (April)/ISM Services New Orders (April)/ JOLTs Job Quits (March)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/01)

· Canada Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI/(April)

· Columbia Exports (March)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (March)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· EARNINGS: Advanced Micro, Shopify, Pfizer, Duke Energy, KKR, Emerson Electric, Cummins, Suncor Energy, Rockwell Automation, Cameco, PayPal, Ambev, Occidental Petroleum, Fiserv, Prudential Financial, Archer-Daniels, Live Nation, Devon Energy, Leidos, Dupont, XP, Qorvo, Lumen Tech, Voya, Raia Drogasil, Celenese, Colliers, Sunoco, Cabot, EQB

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visits Australia for bilateral meetings with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. The two leaders will sign new mutual defense agreements as well as arrange closer economic ties, especially around the trade in critical minerals.

· Vietnam’s President To Lam will visit India through May 7th.

· The SAHA 2026 International Defense & Aerospace Exhibition begins in Istanbul, Turkey and runs through May 9. More than 260 foreign companies and delegations will participate, with 39% being from Asia, according to the organizers. Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Australia will be represented for the first time -- either through companies or as delegations -- while company participants from China are expected to increase compared with the 2024 event.

· Today is Children’s Day in South Korea, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Asia Development Bank holds its 59th meeting in Samarkand, Uzbekistanthrough Wednesday.

· Australia S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ Household Spending (March)/ RBA Interest Rate Decision/RBA Press Conference

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (April)

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Singapore Retail Sales (March)

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Adv Q1

· Pakistan balance of trade

· EARNINGS: Grab

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. The Council is expected to agree on new rules giving the European public prosecutor’s office (EPPO) and the European anti-fraud office (OLAF) access to EU-level VAT information, thereby strengthening the fight against value added tax fraud in the EU. Ministers will also hold a policy debate on the market integration and supervision package - a key element of the EU’s saving and investment union. The Council is expected to adopt an implementing decision approving the modified recovery and resilience plan of Denmark. They will also discuss recovery and resilience plans to allow member states to benefit from the EU’s recovery and resilience fund, a financial support program to help repair the economic and social damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

· Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache testifies before Norway’s parliament on the management of the government pension fund.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives introductory remarks at the Climate, Nature and Price Stability Conference organized by the ECB, Frankfurt School and CETEX in Frankfurt, Germany. ECB Board Chief Economist Philip Lane will give the keynote speech.

· Spain New Car Sales (April)/ Unemployment Change (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (March)

· Italy New Car Registrations (April)

· Romania PPI (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)/Inflation Rate (April)

· France Budget Balance (March)

· UK New Car Sales (April)/ BoE Woods Speech

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

· Serbia PPI (April)

· Turkey Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (March)

· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (April)

· UAE S&P Global PMI (April)

· Israel Unemployment Rate (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M2 Money Supply (March)/ S&P Global PMI (April)

· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (April)

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Global

· The World Trade Organization General Council meeting takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

· The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for April is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is scheduled to testify before the House Oversight Committee on his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers will appear before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Commerce, and the Economy.

· St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem participates in a discussion at the Mississippi Bankers Association annual convention.

· USA MBA Mortgage Applications (May/01)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/01)/MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (May/01)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/01)/ ADP Employment Change (April)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ EIA Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks Change (May/01

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Brazil S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ Car Production (April)/New Car Registrations (April)

· Canada Ivey PMI (April)

· Columbia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· EARNINGS: Disney, Uber, Marriott, CVS Health, DoorDash, Apollo, Warner Bros, Johnson Controls, MetLife, Loblaw Companies, Exelon, Great West Lifeco, NRG Energy, TKO Group, SunLife Financial, Nutrient, Kraft Heinz, Fortis, Restaurant Brands, Canadian Utilities, TOTVS, TransAlta, Snap

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Employment Change Q1/Unemployment Rate Q1/ Labour Costs Index Q1/Participation Rate Q1/Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/05)

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (April)/ Ai Group Construction Index (April)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (April)/ RBA Chart Pack

· South Korea Inflation Rate (April)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

· Philippines Industrial Production (March)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

· China RatingDog Services PMI (April)/ RatingDog Composites PMI (April)

· India HSBC Composite PMI (April)/ HSBC Services PMI (April)

· Thailand Business Confidence (April)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a presentation at the House of the Euro event in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at the 2nd Kiel-CEPR Conference on Monetary Policy – Central Bank Independence in the Spotlight organized by Kiel Institut in Berlin, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech at the AsVis Sustainable Development Festival “Si puo’ fare! Capitale, impresa, futuro: investire nella transizione” in Milan, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a speech and participates on a panel discussion at an event on the occasion of the retirement of Mathias Dewatripont organized by Université libre de Bruxelles in Brussels, Belgium.

· Ireland IB Services PMI (April)

· France New Car Registrations (April)/ Industrial Production (March)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)

· Russia S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)

· Hungary Industrial Production (March)

· Spain S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)

· Italy S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Germany S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

· Euro Area S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ PPI (March)

· UK S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2035 Auction

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (May)

· EARNINGS: UniCredit, Daimler Truck Holding AG, Heidelberg Cement, Fresenius, Poste Italane, Continental, Lufthansa, Telecom Italia, Banca Generali, HelloFresh

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kuwait 2 Money Supply (March)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

Thursday, May 7, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Paraguay’s President Santiago Pena will visit Taiwan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Fed 101 and policy” in a fireside chat before the 2026 Ohio CEO Summit: “Blueprints for Bold Leadership.”

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President & CEO Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Milken Institute in Beverly Hills, California.

· Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari participates in fireside chat at Northern Michigan University in Marquette, Michigan.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (April)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/25)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/02)/ Used Car Prices (April)/ Construction Spending (March)/ Construction Spending (February)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/01)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (May/07)/30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/06)

· Brazil Industrial Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Chile Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

· Argentina Industrial Production (March)

· Columbia PPI (April)

· EARNINGS: McDonalds, Giliead Sciences, McKesson, Canadian Natural Resources, Airbnb, Motorola, Sempra Energy, Grainger, Coinbase, Trade Desk, Expedia, EchoStart, Carlyle, Paramount Skydance, Lyft

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· A two-day ASEAN ministerial meeting will start in Cebu in the Philippines, marking the opening of this year’s ASEAN Summit, with the Philippines serving as the chair. Urgent priority will be placed on handling the energy crisis stemming from the war in the Middle East. The region’s powers also want to reach an agreement on a code of conduct in the South China Sea as China increases its military presence. However, there are lingering tensions within the bloc, including in Myanmar following its general election, and the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia. Attention is expected to be given on all these fronts.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Monetary Base

· Australia Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

· Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Kazakhstan PPI (April)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· South Korea Retail Sales (March)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The United Kingdom will hold local and devolved elections across England, Scotland and Wales.

· German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier meets his Finnish counterpart Alexander Stubb in Helsinki to discuss support for Ukraine, industrial co-operation and the situation in the Middle East.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives the keynote speech at the conference European Financial Integration 2026 jointly organized by the European Commission and the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson chairs a panel discussion at conference European Financial Integration 2026 jointly organized by the European Commission and the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel delivers the 5th Annual Charles Goodhart Lecture 2026 in London, United Kingdom.

· The Bank of England’s Agenda for Research (BEAR) Conference takes place in London and runs through Friday. This year’s theme is “The Interconnected World.”

· Germany Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· Romania Retail Sales (March)

· Hungary Retail Sales (March)

· France Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)

· UK S&P Global Construction PMI (April)

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (April)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/01)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (March)

· EARNINGS: Shell, Enel, Rheinmetall, Siemens Healthineers, Legrand, Bouygues, Mediobanca, Henkel, Pirelli, Maersk, Swiss Re, Lufthansa, BMW, Kongsberg, Novo Nordisk, Philips, AP Møller-Maersk, AcelorMIttal

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· EARNINGS: Gold Fields

Friday, May 8, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report. Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook will give a speech entitled “Perspectives on Tokenization and Implications for the Financial System” at the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) Conference on Digital Assets, Dakar, Senegal.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller participates on a policy panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman participates on a policy panel at the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference, Stanford, California.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participate in panel before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference 2026,”Independence, Structure, and Risks Ahead for Central Banks.”

· Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

· Chile Inflation Rate (April)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Full Time Employment Change (April)/ Part Time Employment Chg (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Wages (April)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Earnings (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Weekly Hours (April)/ Government Payrolls (April)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (April)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (April)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (April)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations (May)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)/ Michigan Current Conditions (May)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (May)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (May/08)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

· Columbia Inflation Rate (April)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

· EARNINGS: Enbridge, Embraer, Starwood Property, Algonquin Power & Utilities, Wendy’s, YPF, Brookfield Management

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippines will host the 48th summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Cebu.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (March)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (March)/ Overtime Pay (March)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (April)/ S&P Global Services PMI (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Property Price Index Q1

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (March)

· Taiwan Imports/Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/01)

· EARNINGS: Toyota Motor, Nintendo

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the Banco de España LatAm Economic Forum 2026 in Roda de Bará, Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at the XII Foro Megatendencias organized by el Economista in Madrid Spain.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at Reinoldimahl in Dortmund, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollon gives a pre-recorded video interview for Voices on the Future during AsVis Sustainable Development Festival in Rome, Italy.

· Day 2 of The Bank of England’s Agenda for Research (BEAR) Conference takes place in London. This year’s theme is “The Interconnected World.” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will participate in a fireside chat.

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Germany Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

· UK Halifax House Price Index (April)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)/

· Turkey Industrial Production (March)/ Treasury Cash Balance (April)

· Greece Harmonized Inflation Rate (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

· Spain Industrial Production (March)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (April)

· EARNINGS: Commerzbank, Intesa Sanpaulo

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (April)

· Indonesia Car Sales (April)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

· Angola Inflation Rate (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Hungarian Parliament officially votes in Peter Magyar as the new prime minister.

· Russia celebrates the 81st Victory Day (defeat of the Nazis) which includes the traditional Victory Day Parade in Moscow. However, President Vladimir Putin has ordered the parade to be scaled back due to the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes. Additionally, the Russian Army is putting up netting over the parade route to protect the parade from drone attacks.

· Today is Europe Day, commemorating the moment in 1950 when French foreign minister Robert Schuman proposed deeper co-operation across the continent, laying the foundations for what has become the European Union.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives the keynote speech at the 58th Soroptimist Ireland North-South Conference in Drogheda, Ireland.

· Greece Balance of Trade (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Hungary Budget Balance (April)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Sunday, May 10, 2026

Global

· It is Mother’s Day in Australia and Canada today.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Micronesia, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of Ministers for European Affairs through May 11thin Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a virtual conversation at the Ventotene Europa festival 2026 in Rome, Italy.

Fulcrum Perspectives

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Global Week Ahead

Sunday, May 24, 2026

Monday, May 25, 2026

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Thursday, May 28, 2026

Friday, May 29, 2026

Saturday, May 30, 2026

Sunday, May 31, 2026

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

Putin and Russia Are Facing Rough Waters, How Mexico Benefits From the US – China Trade War, Will Raising Taxes Solve the US Debt Problem? And How America is Experiencing a Productivity Miracle

Recommended Weekend Reads

Russia’s Shrunken Victory Parade and The Rapidly Disappearing Putin

May 5, 2026

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The SEC Holds Its Annual Conference on Financial Market Regulation, Warsh Teed Up for Confirmation Vote, and a Breakthrough in Crypto Legislation

May 4 - 8, 2026

U.S. Congressional Hearings

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

The Global Week Ahead

May 3 - 10, 2026

ASEAN Leaders Gather in the Philippines as EU Leaders Meet in Armenia, Russia’s Muted Victory Parade, Trump Readies for his China Trip, Iran Offers the U.S. New Terms, the UK Holds Important Local Elections, and Markets Await Another Big Earnings Week

Sunday, May 3, 2026

Monday, May 4, 2026

Tuesday, May 5, 2026

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Thursday, May 7, 2026

Friday, May 8, 2026

Saturday, May 9, 2026

Sunday, May 10, 2026

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