U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair Bowman Scheduled to Speak on Economics and Regulation, Congress Heads Out For Two Weeks, and Washington Will Go Blessedly Quiet

March 30 - April 2, 2026

It is Easter and Passover week. Washington will be relatively quiet this week as Congress has headed for a two-week break and most of the regulators go quiet, too.  The big event of the week will be a moderated discussion with Fed Chair Jay Powell at Harvard on Monday, and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaking at the Consumer Bankers Association conference in San Diego on Tuesday.

The big news from last week was that the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) met and released a new proposal to revise the Biden-era rules around which nonbank financial institutions should be under FSOC supervision.  This is an issue that, depending on which political party is in power, seems to go back and forth and is a perennial battle for financial services lobbyists.

While that was happening, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget signed off on the long-awaited Labor Department (DoL) regulatory proposal allowing 401(k) plans to invest in private equity and other alternative asset classes.   That means DoL will likely release final guidelines in the coming week.  Wall Street is, as you might expect, quite excited about the proposal.

Looking at Congress, word spread quickly that new bipartisan legislation is about to be introduced banning members of Congress, as well as the President, and staff from trading in certain prediction markets.  The Preventing Real-Time Exploitation and Deception Insider Congressional Trading Act – otherwise known as the PREDICT Act – arises out of concern that politicians will use their influence to influence the markets and make money off it.  This will be an interesting bill to track in the coming months.

 Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

 U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is out of session for the Easter/Passover holiday this week.

House of Representatives

·       The House of Representatives is out of session this week for the Easter/Passover holiday this week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, March 30, 10:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

·       Tuesday, March 31, 3:0 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on Stablecoins at The Federalist Society's The GENIUS Act in Practice: Key Questions for Stablecoin Regulation (virtual)

·       Tuesday, March 31, 5:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Small Business at CBA Live 2026, San Diego, California.

·       Wednesday, April 1, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President and CEO Alberto Musalem speaks at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       Wednesday, April 1, 9:10 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on AI and Consumer Issues at the National Fair Housing Alliance 2026 Responsible AI Symposium, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, April 2, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Nothing significant to report.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Nothing significant to report.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Monday – Wednesday, March 30 – April 1 – The Consumer Bankers Association holds its CBA Live 2026 Conference in San Diego, California.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

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Recommended Weekend Reads

After the AI Crash,  Can Mexico Avoid Confrontation With the US?, The Security Implications of China’s Aging Population, and Mexico’s Monarch Butterfly  Population Jumps 64%, Offering Hope To An At-Risk Species

March 27 - 29, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.

Latin America

• Can Mexico Avoid a Confrontation with the United States?     Arturo Saraukhan/Foreign Affairs

  Longtime Washington observers long believed that the most dangerous moment in U.S.-Mexican security relations would arise not from a spike in violence in Mexico but rather if and when Washington concluded that Mexico could not or would not solve the problem on its own terms —if it perceived Mexico City to have made a separate peace with the cartels, either tacitly tolerating them or directly negotiating with them. That moment has now arrived—in dramatic fashion and after a long buildup. For six years, beginning in 2018, former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador approached criminal organizations with the mantra “hugs, not bullets”—which I would better characterize as “hugs for thugs.” This policy led to a de facto pax narca that today hangs around the neck of his successor, President Claudia Sheinbaum.  And it has provoked U.S. President Donald Trump who said in November, “Would I launch strikes in Mexico to stop drugs? OK with me, whatever we have to do to stop drugs.” He has continued, on multiple occasions, to say that cartels, and not Sheinbaum, “run” Mexico, reaching for unilateral tools such as sanctions and formal designations of cartels as foreign terrorist organizations to address the problem. This in turn helps explain why Sheinbaum decided in February to launch unprecedented attacks on cartels.  But will it be enough?

• Cubans at their limit: “How is it possible that in my country they listen to anyone but the people?”   El País

  Many Cubans on the island, struggling with daily blackouts or shortages of food and transportation, are urging Donald Trump to act soon.  Until now, it was assumed that this was not what was going to happen. That is, that Trump — who went from attacking Venezuela to waging war in Iran — only intended to bring about economic change on the island. Even his Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, had said on several occasions that before any political change, Cuba needed economic change. But Trump’s recent statements hint at Washington’s plan toward Havana. This Monday, from the Oval Office, Trump asserted that it would be “an honor” for him to “take Cuba.”

• The Mexican Left’s War on NGOs          Compact

  Last weekend, Mexico’s Internal Revenue Service (SAT) rescinded tax permits for more than 100 NGOs, terminating their ability to receive donations and qualify for tax exemptions. Many have a path to restoring their NGO status, but around a dozen were liquidated outright for failing to comply with fiscal rules. These moves form part of a broad crackdown on waste and foreign interference in Mexico by the ruling left-wing Morena party under President Claudia Sheinbaum and her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). 

• Tackling Chinese criminal networks in Latin America       Vanda Felbab-Brown/Brookings Institution

  Over the past two decades, Chinese criminal networks have expanded in Latin America and the Caribbean, just like in other regions of the world, alongside China’s legal trade and investment expansion in the region. Their activities span the trafficking of drugs and their precursors; money laundering; illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing; wildlife trafficking; illegal logging and mining; and human smuggling.  All of these illicit economies and this highly violent criminality long predate the arrival of Chinese criminal groups. But the presence of Chinese criminal groups often leads to a dramatic increase and diversification in illicit extraction and smuggling, such as in natural resources contraband, because the demand for such products in China is very large. By connecting local illicit economies to global markets and increasing the value of commodities, Chinese criminal groups also motivate local criminal actors to expand and diversify their illicit activities.

• Mexico’s monarch butterfly population jumps 64%, offering hope for at-risk species   The Guardian

  The population of monarch butterflies in Mexico increased 64% this winter, compared with the same period in 2025, offering a glimmer of hope for an insect considered at risk of extinction. The figures, released this week by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Mexico, showed that the area occupied by monarchs expanded to 2.93 hectares (7.24 acres) of forest from 1.79 hectares (4.42 acres) the previous winter, the largest coverage since 2018.  “The monarch butterfly is the symbol of the trilateral relationship between Mexico, the United States and Canada,” Mexican environment minister Alicia Bárcena Ibarra said at a news conference on Tuesday. “Its conservation is a collective commitment we must maintain for the future.”  Every fall, tens of millions of the butterflies travel nearly 3,000 miles from Canada, across the US and finally to the forests of western Mexico. There, the orange insects cover entire trees and flutter through the air in spectacular fashion.

Geoeconomics & Technology

• After the AI Crash       Vanderbilt Policy Accelerator/Vanderbilt University

  Public concern about the level of AI investment is everywhere. While some compare today’s scenario to the dot-com bubble, the economy’s overreliance on AI investment, coupled with opaque financial engineering, means that a market correction could look more like the 2008 Great Recession, an economy-wide crash with systemic consequences. After such a crash, Congress will scramble to identify a reform agenda. In a rush, broader reforms that take time to formulate get shelved for quick action.   It doesn’t have to be so.  This paper describes how a crash might occur and outlines policies for Congress to consider in response.

• How Much AI-Driven Productivity Growth Do We Want?    Michael Strain/Project Syndicate

  As AI advances, societies must consider how to strike a balance between the disruption caused by rapid productivity growth and its many benefits, including rising incomes and living standards. Fortunately, most advanced economies are well equipped to absorb the shocks associated with breakthrough technologies.

• Massachusetts Loses Billions in Income After Millionaire Tax   Greg Ryan  Bloomberg

  Residents exiting Massachusetts took a net of $4.2 billion in adjusted gross income with them in 2023, one of the largest totals in the country, after a tax on millionaires took effect. The amount was an 8% year-over-year increase, according to Internal Revenue Service data, even as the total number of taxpayers leaving the state slowed. This was the first year that residents were subject to a 4% surtax on incomes over $1 million after voters approved the levy in 2022 to fund schools and transportation. Despite the tax’s implementation, the number of residents moving out of Massachusetts who reported income of $200,000 or more — the top bracket tracked in the IRS data — fell year-over-year. Net outflows from Massachusetts long predate the millionaire’s tax, especially to Florida and New Hampshire, its northern neighbor, which has no tax on wages or capital gains. Total lost income was also higher in 2021 than 2023. The state’s millionaires-tax collections have increased every year since 2023 and so far in fiscal 2026 have jumped 19% year-over-year to $1.3 billion.

China

• China’s Aging Population and the Implications for China’s Security   Rand Corporation

  China is facing a population upheaval that could reshape its future. By 2050, China’s population could lose 250 million people. Falling birth rates and rising life expectancy mean that China's population is also aging fast.⁠  The number of working-age people peaked in 2015 and has been decreasing ever since. By 2050, there will be fewer than two working-age adults for every person ages 65 and older, compared with more than two and a half working-age adults per older adult projected for the United States. This trend threatens to upend China's ability to grow its economy, strain its pension and health care systems, and threaten its national security. In the first RAND report on this topic, the authors consider the significance of rapid population aging on China's national security.

• China Is Wrestling With A Novel Phenomenon: Inherited Wealth   The Economist

  Many Chinese once viewed wealth and success as reflections of hard work or intelligence. The rich were an advertisement for the dream of advancement. In 2004, according to a paper by Michael Alisky, Scott Rozelle and Martin Whyte, 62% of Chinese felt that “effort is always rewarded” and blamed poverty on lack of ability. But in recent years economic growth has slowed sharply and ordinary Chinese have become gloomy about their prospects. The proportion who think hard work pays off fell to 28% in 2023. People now see unequal opportunity as the biggest factor contributing to poverty; connections and being born rich are considered the keys to wealth. They think mobility has slowed. From 2004 to 2014 70% of respondents thought their family situation was better or much better than five years before. In 2023 only 39% thought so.

• A Tale of Two Countries: The Real Estate Crises in 1990s Japan and Contemporary China Kenneth Rogoff and Yuanchen Yang  Brookings Papers On Economic Activity

  Japan’s prolonged recession was likely driven by the interplay of slowing returns to investment, soft consumption, and negative sentiment that reinforced these weaknesses. With some structural and cyclical characteristics closely resembling Japan’s pre- and post-bubble conditions, China appears to be in the middle stages of a multi-year correction. China’s post-boom adjustment is unfolding in a more difficult macroeconomic and demographic context than Japan’s. That said, China still possesses several economic and institutional advantages that could help cushion the blow of a prolonged real estate downturn. In Japan’s post-bubble era, the country’s productivity growth was considered a binding constraint, a factor that does not appear to limit China in the same way. Most crucially, China possesses a state-dominated financial system backed by implicit government guarantees and a highly proactive policymaking apparatus capable of large-scale interventions, which have thus far prevented the crisis from precipitating a financial sector breakdown.

The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Intensifies, The EU Parliament Gets Ready to Vote on the EU-US Trade Framework, China’s Boao Forum Begins, and Global PMIs Will Show the Impact of the Iran War

March 22 - 29, 2026

The US/Israeli/Iran War looks to both continue and possibly intensify this week.  President Trump delivered an ultimatum to Iran on Saturday that expires late Monday, demanding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz or the US would “hit and obliterate” Iran’s power plants.  Iran responded, saying if Trump did this, they would target all US-linked energy facilities in the region – including energy infrastructure and water desalination facilities linked to the US.

Energy markets are already struggling to handle the growing regional risk, with Brent Crude at around $112 per barrel.   United Airline CEO Scott Kirby warned on Friday he could see oil hitting $175 per barrel and stay elevated until 2027.   And Saudi Arabian energy officials also said on Friday that oil could hit $180 per barrel, creating a global recession.

Additionally, there have been numerous reports the US is considering putting “boots on the ground” in Iran to take out key nuclear sites and other strategic assets.  A detachment of 4,500 U.S. Marines is headed to the region as well as a U.S. Army infantry battalion.  The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve an additional $200 billion request of Congress for funding for the war.

Elsewhere this week, the European Parliament is expected on March 26th to vote on whether to approve the trade framework with the US.  The vote has been held up for weeks following President Trump’s recent order to launch Section 301 investigations – which will almost certainly lead to new tariffs on Europe.  The deal almost blew apart, but US and EU diplomats appear to have been able to coble it back together.  The vote, if successful, will scrap tariffs on US industrial goods.

Also, in Europe this week, Denmark holds snap parliamentary elections.  Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is seeking a third term and is seen as a tough negotiator with President Trump who held off his efforts to buy and/or invade Greenland.  Polling suggests she will win. 

Italy holds a constitutional referendum on Sunday and Monday that, if approved, will restructure the judiciary.  The vote is seen as an important test of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s power.

In Asia this week, China hosts the 25th Boao Forum in Hainan.  Oftentimes described as the Asian version of the World Economic Forum in Davos, it brings Asian government and business leaders together for three days. 

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen, markets – which are shell-shocked by the impact and growing negative implications of the Iran War – are looking intensely at the global flash PMIs out on Tuesday. The inflation indicators for March are likely to be an important marker for the global economic outlook. 

In the US this week, the Consumer Confidence Index is out on Tuesday, Durable Goods on Wednesday, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report on Friday.

In Europe, Germany releases its Ifo Survey on Wednesday and the UK releases their inflation reports on Wednesday.  And the Eurozone flash CPI print is out on Friday.  Markets will be paying particular attention to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech on Wednesday for any suggestion of revisions to the central bank’s inflation outlook.

In Asia this week, Japan’s Shunto results are out on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.  China releases industrial profits on Friday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Bolivia holds regional elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam announces election results from its twice-a-decade National Assembly elections.  Following this, the parliament then meets to pick a prime minister and a president for a five-year term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds its second round of municipal elections.

·       The German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, home to BASF and a major auto-parts industry, holds its parliament election.

·       Slovenia holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy votes on a referendum changing the justice system which will separate the career paths of judges and splits Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.  The reform effort is one of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s primary government reform agenda items.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 23, 2026

Global

·       President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina continues to commemorate Truth & Justice Day, the conclusion of a four-day holiday.  Banks, government, and markets are closed.

·       US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Gor visits the Maldives and Sri Lanka. His meetings are expected to focus on “quiet strategic signaling” to the two countries to ensure US access to major ports.

·       The annual CERAWeek conference runs in Houston through March 27 to examine the future of energy, climate, technology and geopolitics

·       The Wall Street Journal CFO Council Summit is held in Palo Alto, California, through March 24th.

·       In the US, Space Science Week begins at the National Academy of Sciences Building in Washington, D.C., with industry experts discussing the future directions of space science and the commercial galactic flight industry.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (February)/ Construction Spending (January)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen begins a three-day visit to Australia, including a meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra, with the aim of striking a trade deal.

· Eid al-Fitr is observed in Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, and most of the Middle East.  Markets are closed.

·       Today is Pakistan Day, a national holiday.  All banks and markets are closed.

·       The Milken Global Investors’ Symposium is held in Hong Kong with a focus on shifting capital flows, technology and regional growth shaping Asia-Pacific strategies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The second and final day of the country’s referendum on judicial system changes, a key reform agenda of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government. Voters must decide whether to separate the career paths of judges and split Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.

·       Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer answers questions about his government’s performance from MPs on Westminster’s Liaison Committee. Outside London, economics think-tank The Growth Commission hosts Mending Britain’s Broken Economy, a conference in Buckingham, where guest speakers will include former PM Liz Truss.

·       Albania celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.  Banks and government are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a speech at the House of the Euro event on APPIA Roadmap in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lanes gives a speech at the ECB=SAFE-RECEA International Conference on the Climate-Macro-Finance Interface (3CMFI) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/13)/ Central Government Debt (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Wage Tracker Q1/ Consumer Confidence Flash (March)

·       Greece Current Account (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (January)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (January)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Eid al-Fitr is observed across most of the Middle East with markets closed.

·       Iran observes Nowruz, the Persian New Year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Eid al-Fitr is observed in Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt.

·       Angola celebrates Southern Africa Liberation Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, March 24, 2026 

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East [2334] followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to meet with oil and gas CEOs to discuss spiking energy prices.

·       Anthropic is due in court, with a US judge hearing arguments in the AI company’s dispute with the federal government.

·       In Argentina, it is the Memorial Day for Truth and Justice holiday. Financial markets closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Member Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook and community development at the National Community Investment Conference, Phoenix, Arizona.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (March)/ Manufacturing Sales (February)

·       Chile PPI (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Mexico Economic Activity (January)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Nonfarm Productivity Q4/ Unit Labour Costs Q4/ Redbook (March/21)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Money Supply (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/20)/

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 begins in the eponymous coastal town, which is part of the city of Qionghai, Hainan. It runs until Friday. Known as Asia's answer to Davos and marking its 25th anniversary this year, participants will discuss economic cooperation at a time of serious global tension and conflict. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong is expected to be among the attendees.

·       The EU-Vietnam Global Gateway Business and Investment Forum is held in Hanoi, Vietnam.

·       German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius will visit Japan through March 25th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (February)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       EARNINGS: Xiaomi

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Denmark holds parliamentary elections. Social Democrats are expected to stay in power, albeit with what is forecast to be the party’s weakest results in a hundred years.

·       A delegation from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will meet EU representatives in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the Landesbank Baden-Württemberg Fixed Income Forum 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives concluding remarks at the 13th ECB conference on Forecasting Techniques “Artificial intelligence in the analysis of economic narratives, forecasting, and risk assessment” in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia and SUERF Conference on “Central Banking Amid Persistent Global Shifts: Fostering Stability, Innovation, and Reliance” in Skopje, Macedonia.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (February)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (March)/ Capacity Utilization (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Switzerland Current Account Q4

·       France HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (March)/ CBI Distributive Trades (March)/ BoE Pill Speech

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EAERNINGSEARNINGS: YouGov, Kingfisher, Henry Boot, Bellway

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 6th Africa Fintech Forum takes place in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (January)/ Consumer Confidence Q1

Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins at the Gaylord Texan Resort & Convention Center in Grapevine, Texas. Speakers include former British prime minister Liz Truss, Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, deputy attorney-general Todd Blanche and political strategist Steve Bannon. It runs until Saturday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran takes part in a conversation at the

Digital Asset Summit 2026 in New York.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (March)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/20)/ Current Account Q4/ Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (March/20)

·       Paraguay PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: Chewy, Paychex, Beyond Meat

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Lawmakers in the Philippines House of Representatives are set to conduct hearings for evidence and witnesses related to the two impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte over her alleged misappropriation of public funds and threats against high-ranking officials. The proceedings against Duterte could eventually lead to a formal plenary vote and a Senate trial.

·       The Bangkok International Motor Show begins and runs through April 5th.  All the major auto manufacturers in Asia are expected to be represented.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Australia Inflation Rate (February)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (February)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (February)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (March/15)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (February)

·       EARNINGS: Anta

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Greece celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday with banks and markets closed.

·       San Marino celebrates the Anniversary of the Arango, a holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde vies the President’s Address at The ECB and Its Watchers conference organized by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability at Goethe University in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen chairs a panel entitled "Macroprudential framework review: main issues to be addressed" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a panel discussion on "Diversity of the EU banking sector: what ways forward?" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.  Later, he chairs a panel entitled “Sustainability Risks” at the seminar.

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene sits on a panel at the Jefferies Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference in London.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI Input (February)/ PPI Output (February)/ Retail Price Index (February)

·       Spain PPI (February)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB Tuominen Speech/ ECB Montagner Speech

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate/ Current Conditions/ Expectations (March)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (March)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q1/ Industrial Production (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon celebrates Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Kenya International Investment Conference takes place through March 27 in Nairobi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 26, 2026

Global

·       G7 foreign ministers meeting begins in Cerney, France, concluding tomorrow.  The focus of the meeting will be the multiple crisis’ in the Middle East and the War in Ukraine. South Korea will attend as a guest participant.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). 

·       The WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference begins in Yaoundé, Cameroon continuing until Sunday. The conference will be chaired by Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana, Cameroon’s trade minister.

·       The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report.

·       Pope Leo visits Morocco.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In New York, there will be a U.S. court hearing for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech entitled “Reflections on Financial Stability” at the Professor Andrew Metrick & Yale Program on Financial Stability Presents Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Governor Lisa Cook, New Haven, Connecticut.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran discusses the Fed’s Balance Sheet at the Economic Club of Miami Event, Miami, Florida.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Energy Effects” at the Global Perspectives Speaker Series in Dallas, Texas.

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barrs gives a speech on the economy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (March)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (January)

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks at Brandon Chamber of Commerce “on factors affecting Canada’s economic outlook and financial system”

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (March/21)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (March/14)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/20)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing/ Composite Index (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/26)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/25)/ Fed Miran Speech/ Fed Jefferson Speech/ Fed Barr Speech

·       Colombia Business Confidence (February)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (January)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Newsmax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, today is Ram Navami, the Hindu festival celebrating the birth of Rama. Financial markets closed

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia RBA Kent Speech 

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (March/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/21)/ Coincident Index Final (January)/ Leading Economic Index Final (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (February)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       EARNINGS: Xtep

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte presents his 2025 annual report at the military alliance’s Brussels headquarters in Brussels, Belgium.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Yaoundé, Cameroon on the margins of the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 14th Ministerial Conference being held through March 29.

·       The Faroe Islands hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at the Eesti Pank’s Ragnar Nurkse Memorial Lecture Series followed by on-stage conversation with governor Madis Müller in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a speech on "The ECB's perspective on the SIU policy" at Savings and Investment Union (SIU) seminar in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Alan Taylor, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at Exante Data’s 10-year anniversary macro conference in New York.

·       Alan Taylor, an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at Exante Data’s 10-year anniversary macro conference in New York

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence APR

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB General Council Meeting/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Loans to Companies (February)/ Loans to Households (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)/ ECB Machado Speech/ Eurogroup Meeting

·       France Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Business Climate Indicator (March)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Italy Business Confidence (March)/ Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Greece Total Credit (February)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/20)

·       Great Britain BoE Taylor Speech

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       EARNINGS: Hapag-Lloyd, Bertelsmann

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (February)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, March 27, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Anna Paulson speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Annual Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (March)/ Current Account (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (February)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Fiscal Balance (February)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (February)/ Budget Balance (January)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Current Account Q4

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations Final (March)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (March)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations Final (March)/ Fed Daly Speech/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/27)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (February)/ Wholesale Inventories (February)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Argentina Current Account Q4

·       Panama Current Account Q4

·       EARNINGS: Carnival

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (March)

·       South Korea Business Confidence (March)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ PPI (February)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (February)/ Current Account Final Q4

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (February)

·       Singapore Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)/ PPI (February)

·       Malaysia PPI (February)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (February)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/15)/ Deposit Growth (March/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/20)

·       EARNINGS: BYD

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets via video conference. EU ministers will be discussing the situation in the Middle East and its likely outcome on the EU economy, including energy markets.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates in a panel discussion "Cyber and digital operation resilience" at virtual Eurofi High-Level seminar.  Later, ECB Board Member Patrick Montagner participates on a panel discussion entitled “Private Assets and NBFI: Opportunities and Challenges.”

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a guest lecture at the Department of Economics at University of Zurich in Zurich, Switzerland.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (March)/ Car Production (February)/ Retail Sales (February)

·       Hungary Current Account Q4/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (February)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (February)/ Jobseekers Total (February)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 28, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will visit the Philippines through March 29th.  Hegseth is meeting with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro to reiterate that the 1951 US- Philippines Defense Treaty is "ironclad." Crucially, he is expected to confirm that it covers armed attacks on Philippine Coast Guard vessels anywhere in the South China Sea.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK, Together Alliance “Together against the far-right” national demonstration in London with speakers including Green Party leader Zack Polanski, former Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and actors Christopher Eccleston, Mark Rylance, Maxine Peake and Toby Jones.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion at workshop on “The banking system and today’s geopolitical challenges” organized by Fondazione Banco di Napoli in Napoli, Italy.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       In Dubai, the running of the 30th Dubai World Cup, billed as one of the world’s richest horse races, is scheduled to take place (but may be cancelled due to the ongoing war with Iran).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The 58th Conference of African Ministers of Finance (ECA) meets in Tangier, Morocco. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 29, 2026

Global

·       Today in the Christian world is Palm Sunday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto arrives in Japan for a three-day state visit, during which he will meet Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and be the main guest at a court lunch with Emperor Naruhito.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

European Daylight Savings Time and British Summer Time begins. Set your clock one hour forward!

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Madagascar commemorates Martyrs’ Day, a public holiday.

·       The Central African Republic celebrates Barthelemy Boganda Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Global Threat Assessment, The Iran War and What Comes Next, China – US Relations At an Inflection Point, and AI and the Fable of ATMs

March 20 - 22, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

The Global Threat Assessment

• The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community   Office of the Director of National Intelligence

  The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ONDI) – which oversees all 18 US intelligence agencies and organizations – this past week published it annual global threat assessment. The report details cybersecurity risks posed by nation-states to U.S. networks and critical infrastructure, as well as the increasingly sophisticated capabilities of cybercriminal ransomware actors. It outlines the current threat landscape, focusing on nation-state adversaries linked to the governments of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. The report also emphasizes the growing cyber espionage threat from Iran targeting U.S. networks and critical infrastructure.

The Iran War: Why Is It Happening and What’s Next?

• You Can’t Print Molecules   Jeff Currie and James Gutman   Carlyle

  When the dust settles and the strait reopens — partially, gradually, and perhaps on Tehran’s terms — the cost of rebuilding will likely be enormous. Governments must simultaneously finance defense, rebuild strategic reserves, restart domestic energy production, and harden infrastructure. All of this comes at a moment when inflation expectations are driving the cost of funding sharply higher — Germany’s 10-year bund auction technically failed this week, not for lack of liquidity, but because the bond market is already pricing the inflationary impact. Where does the capital come from? Capital will flow from the sectors that prospered during the era of open sea lanes and cheap energy, asset light, into the sectors that will build the replacement, asset heavy. The rotation back toward physical assets is not a trade — it is a regime change.

• Tracking US Military Assets in the Iran War   The Atlantic Council

  The Forward Defense program of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security have just launched a new regularly updated tracker to analyze what the US military is committing to the war in Iran and what that means for a potential conflict with China.  Operation Epic Fury is stressing military capabilities—aircraft carriers, bombers, missile defense systems—in ways that will have an impact in other theaters around the world. That includes US efforts to credibly deter Chinese aggression and prevail against China in a future conflict. Monitoring the military assets that are relevant to US strategy in the Indo-Pacific and currently deployed to Iran offers insight into how the war might affect the US military's readiness to meet the threat posed by Beijing—the most consequential challenge the United States faces.  Actual numbers of US inventory and deployment data are classified. This tracker provides estimates for a subset of assets where open-source information is most reliable. It will be regularly updated and expanded with new data and expert context.

• The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence And Why It Augurs a More Dangerous World   Nicole Grajewski & Ankit Panda/ Foreign Affairs

  Although it was the United States and Israel that instigated attacks on Iran on February 28, leaders in Tehran deserve some of the blame for failing to effectively deter their adversaries. As the deceased commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, once put it, maintaining deterrence is like riding a bicycle: “You have to keep pedaling all the time, or else the bicycle will fall.” Over the past three years, Iran started to lose its balance; now it has tipped over.

• Why Escalation Favors Iran      Robert Pape/Foreign Affairs

  Iran’s military strategy cannot be dismissed as acts of scattered retaliation, the flailing lashing out of a dying regime. Rather, they represent a strategy of horizontal escalation, a bid to transform the stakes of a conflict by widening its scope and extending its duration. Such a strategy allows a weaker combatant to alter the calculus of a more powerful foe. And it has worked in the past, to the detriment of the United States. In Vietnam and Serbia, U.S. adversaries responded to overwhelming displays of American airpower with horizontal escalation, eventually leading to American defeat, in the former case, and, in the latter, frustrating U.S. war aims and spurring the worst episode of ethnic cleansing in Europe since World War II. Decapitation strikes, in particular, create powerful incentives for horizontal escalation: when a regime survives the loss of its leader, it must demonstrate resilience quickly by widening the conflict. Although the United States has hugely battered Iran, it must reckon with the implications of Iran’s response. Otherwise, it will find itself losing control of the war it started.

• How Iran’s ‘forward defense’ became a strategic boomerang   Chatham House

  The war has exposed the limits of Iran’s long-standing strategy of ‘forward defense’. Worse still, that strategy has significantly contributed to Iran’s current predicament. So much so that, depending on the current conflict’s outcome, Tehran may need to fundamentally reconsider an approach to its security that it has refined, expanded and invested in for more than four decades.  Since the 1980s, Iranian leaders have tried to push threats away from their borders by cultivating armed partners in fragile and divided Arab states. Through Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, Palestinian militant groups in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen, Iran built a destabilizing network that allowed it to project influence while avoiding direct armed conflict with Israel and America.

China

• Trump, Xi, and the Case for Strategic CalmRyan Hass/Foreign Affairs

  After a decade of elevated tensions, Washington and Beijing now find themselves navigating relatively calm waters. Last October, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping reached an agreement in Busan, South Korea, to pause the trade war between their two countries. The truce paused new U.S. tariffs and rolled back Chinese restrictions on American access to rare earths and magnets. That reprieve is real—but fragile.  Expectations are high that the next time the two leaders meet—originally scheduled to be March 31, in Beijing, but now delayed at Trump’s request because of the U.S. war in Iran—they will reaffirm and potentially extend their trade war truce. But the truce is driven less by a desire to resolve underlying challenges in the U.S.-Chinese relationship than by a convergence of interests between the countries’ leaders to buy time for their own domestic self-strengthening projects. What will determine the balance of power for years to come is not what Trump and Xi say to each other at this highly staged summit but what the United States and China each does during this larger respite of calmer relations.  To take advantage of this current period of fragile stability in its relations with Beijing, Washington will need to wind down its military operations in Iran and refocus on a more consequential national imperative: rebuilding capacity to compete with China.

• Double-Edged Swords: How Military Purges Shape Authoritarian Appetite for War   War on the Rocks

  In less than three years, dozens of senior Chinese military officials have been removed. Many of these officers were promoted by Xi after he assumed power in 2012, when he pledged to eliminate endemic corruption within the armed forces.  This unprecedented wave of purges among the highest-ranking generals has prompted questions regarding the implications for China’s international and military ambitions: How do military purges affect authoritarian regimes’ propensity to initiate war?

Geoeconomics, Markets & Politics

• Why People Disagree About What Drives Stock Prices  Andrew Atkeson,  Fabrizio Perri & Jonathan Heathcote/National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We show that, to a first-order approximation, estimates of fluctuations in Shiller’s fundamental price relative to observed price depend primarily on forecasts of long-horizon expected returns. Researchers using different measures of cash flow and valuation may reach different conclusions about the extent to which values fluctuate excessively relative to fundamentals, but that is only because return forecasts based on different cash-flow-to-value measures will be different. Using U.S. equity data, we demonstrate that the amount of persistence in expected returns, rather than the amount of short-run return predictability, is the key determinant of implied excess volatility. Disagreements about stock market valuation therefore reduce to disagreements about long-run expected returns.

• AI and the Fable of the ATMs     Paul Kedrosky/Notes on Complexity

  The author points out that the implantation of bank ATMs did reduce teller labor demand — just not in the way the standard story claims.  What kept total teller employment up was not automation-driven demand growth, but a massive branch expansion driven by deregulation. That matters because the ATM example is often misused as proof that task automation naturally creates offsetting new human work.  The real lesson for AI is harsher: unless you can identify the offsetting force, job survival may be coincidence rather than mechanism.

• The Micro-Geography of Persuasion: Randomized Peer Exposure and Legislative Outcomes   Lauren Cohen & Bo Li/National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We find that randomly assigned peers play a sizable and unique role in shaping political economy. Closely seated, and exogenously assigned, US Senate peers have a significant impact on Congressional voting, shifting votes by 11.9 percentage points (t=7.34). Physical distance is the largest and most consistent of any characteristic outside of party or state in impacting voting behavior. The distance effect is concentrated in the closest peers, existing for up to 19.6 feet on the Senate floor, then dissipating. Close peers additionally increase the probability of aisle-crossing (voting with the opposite party), with the aisle-crossing impact being roughly eight times larger on the final votes on bills. We then utilize a state-of-the-art AI-enhanced computer vision model based on real-time interactions using CSPAN video data at every 10-second interval amongst Congressional members. Using these observed interactions, we find that face-to-face interactions are associated with significant impacts on immediately pending votes. The interactions are largely driven by distance, with aisle-seated Senators from both parties being amongst the most likely to engage in face-to-face interactions across party lines. By conducting counterfactuals through randomized Senate seating, 59 consequential bills would have switched outcomes over our 30-year sample period.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Senate Approves A Bipartisan Housing Bill With Trump’s Controversial Provision Included, The Justice Department Appeals Powell Case, and The Fed To Vote on New Capital Rules

March 16 - 20, 2026

Congress is starting off the week with a bang – or more precisely with tornado and severe weather warnings for the greater Washington, D.C. area, resulting in the House of Representatives cancelling all votes on Monday.

Aside from that, it will be a big week for banks, as the Federal Reserve, the Comptroller of the Currency, and the FDIC boards will vote on a new bank capital rule to implement the final phase of Basel II this Thursday.  Bowman previewed the proposals last week at the Cato Institute, saying bank capital rules will decrease “by a small amount” under the coming proposal.  

She went on to point out that the proposal will eliminate duplicative capital calculations for the largest banks and will likely allow banks to rely solely on internal model-based risk-based capital ratios, rather than maintaining two sets of ratios (the other being the standardized approach). 

Meanwhile, a federal judge squashed efforts to subpoena the Federal Reserve as part of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jay Powell.  In a tough ruling, Judge James Boasberg said that the government has “produced essentially zero evidence to suspect Chair Powell of a crime” and called its justifications for the subpoenas so “thin and unsubstantiated” that they were simply a pretext to force Powell to cut interest rates, as Trump has repeatedly demanded.   

He went on to write, “There is abundant evidence that the subpoenas’ dominant (if not sole) purpose is to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the President or to resign and make way for a Fed Chair who will.”

But the Justice Department defiantly announced that it intends to appeal the ruling.  Our view is that the real impact of their decision to appeal will be on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing, which we can now see will not take place until mid-summer.  Senator Tom Tillis (R-NC) and a number of other senators have vowed to hold up Warsh’s confirmation until the investigation of Powell is dropped.  Knowing how long appeals can take – and our guess is the Trump Administration will take this all the way to the Supreme Court – that means it will be months before Warsh gets his confirmation hearing.  US Treasury officials we spoke to this past week acknowledged this and suggested that President Trump will likely name Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran as Acting Chair when Powell’s term as Chair expires on May 15th.  

Looking at events on Capitol Hill, the Senate passed a major bipartisan housing bill last week and is now headed to the House for a vote.  But a controversial provision championed – oddly enough – by both President Trump and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), blocking institutional investors from buying homes, was included.  A number of House Republicans oppose the provision despite the President’s strong support for it.  That is likely to significantly delay final passage.

Also last week, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig said in a speech that prediction markets are quickly becoming critical tools for everyday Americans seeking to understand current events and could serve as a check on “disinformation.”  Considering how prediction markets are increasingly becoming a big part of political campaigns – in some way replacing traditional polling – we expect a lot of focus on what Selig does next to regulate them.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week.‍ ‍Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Wednesday, March 18, 2:30 p.m. – The Joint Economic Committee holds a hearing entitled “Keeping Our Promises: Labor Inflows, Maintaining Competitiveness, and Supporting an Aging Population.”

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, March 17, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Updating America’s Financial Privacy Framework for the 21st Century.”

·       Wednesday, March 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Export-Import Bank.”

·       Wednesday, March 18, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services monetary policy task force will hold a hearing on the Treasury-Fed Accord, which separated the management of government debt from the central bank’s interest-rate decisions.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday & Wednesday, March 17 & 18 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell gives a press release on March 18 at 2:30 p.m. EST.

·       Thursday, March 19, 10:00 a.m. – The Federal Reserve Board holds an Open Board Meeting.  The agenda item is to vote on meet to vote on proposed new capital rules for small and large banks, including a re-proposal of the Basel endgame capital plan.

·       Saturday, March 21, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives brief acceptance remarks at the American Society for Public Administration (ASPA) Annual Conference: Paul A. Volcker Public Integrity Award Ceremony (virtual).

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Tuesday, March 17, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will give a keynote speech and participate in a fireside chat with CFTC Chair Michael Selig at the DC Blockchain Summit.

·       Thursday, March 19, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins and the rest of the SEC Commissioners, and a number of senior SEC officials will participate in the annual two-day SEC Speaks in 2026 Conference sponsored by the Practicing Law Institute.

·       Thursday, March 19, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Thursday, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board meets to vote on proposed new capital rules for small and large banks, including a re-proposal of the Basel endgame capital plan.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Tuesday, March 17, 11:00 a.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould speaks at the DC Blockchain Summit.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Thursday, March 19 – the FTC holds its Annual Conference on Marketing and Public Policy.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time. 

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Wednesday, March 18, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a conference entitled “Reimagining Homeowners Insurance Amid Growing Climate Risk.”

·       Wednesday, March 18, Noon – The Exchequer Club hosts Senator Mike Rounds (R-SD), a member of the Senate Banking Committee.

·       Wednesday, March 18, Noon – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "The Credit Trajectories of Microbusiness Loan Borrowers."

·       Wednesday, March 18, Noon. – The RAND Corporation holds a virtual discussion entitled “America's Housing Crunch: What the Evidence Says."

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Drags On and Expands, Trump to Meet with Japanese Prime Minister, EU Leaders Gather to Talk Energy, Trade, and War, and A Big Week Ahead of Central Banks

March 15 - 22, 2026

The Iran War is expected to continue this week and likely expand.  Markets will continue to struggle to understand the scope and breadth of the impact on oil and other commodity markets, and for any signs of an “off-ramp” to the fighting.

Iran announced on Sunday they would expand their targeting after the US bombed Kaurq Island, accusing the UAE of allowing the attacks to come from US bases in the UAE.   As a result, Iran said it would begin targeting three Emirati ports, this being the first direct stated threat by Tehran against any of their neighboring countries. Up until now, Iran has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at the UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, but has claimed they are only targeting US military and diplomatic targets in the respective countries.

President Trump is now appealing to allied countries to send naval ships to help open up the Strait of Hormuz.  He stated on Friday that “many countries” will be sending warships to the Strait, but as of this writing, no country appears to be willing to do so, arguing it would be too risky.  More worrisome, Trump threatened NATO over the weekend, saying it would be “very bad” for the organization if it failed to send ships to help him reopen the Straits.

One country President Trump will be directly appealing to is Japan, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi makes her first visit to Washington on Thursday.  The two leaders have a long agenda of issues they intend to discuss, including wrapping up a US-Japan free trade agreement, access to critical minerals, and Trump’s request for naval assistance in the Strait of Hormuz.  Takaichi is likely to put off the request.  Senior Japanese officials said Saturday they “regard the threshold as extremely high” for sending naval ships to the region under existing Japanese laws (Japan does not have a formal army or navy but instead a defense agency).  Japan is highly dependent on oil from the Middle East and has announced it will release 80 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve.

Also, this week, EU heads of state will gather in Brussels for a European Council meeting.  The agenda will be dominated by the War in Ukraine and the Iran War.  But leaders will also discuss how to improve EU competitiveness and ensure greater energy independence amid spiking fuel prices.  As leaders meet, the EU Parliament’s International Trade Committee will meet to vote on the EU-US trade deal.  They had postponed doing so weeks ago after the Trump Administration launched new global tariffs following the US Supreme Court striking down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a means to impose worldwide tariffs.

Finally, we would note that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in Paris this weekend, meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to hammer out an agenda for President Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing on March 31st.  We believe there is a strong chance the meeting will be cancelled as Trump is demanding China send naval ships to the Straits of Hormuz.  We will be watching this closely.   

Beyond that, and if the summit indeed happens, we understand the major sticking points to finalizing an agenda are President Trump’s desire to negotiate directly with President Xi in person, while Xi wants a framework hammered out in advance of the meeting.    We would also note that, so far, no US CEOs have been asked to accompany Trump on the trip – something that normally happens at bilateral leaders’ meetings, as it gives CEOs on both sides an opportunity to announce new deals and investment plans.

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screens, it is going to be a very big week for central banks.  The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Central Bank of Japan, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of England are all meeting this week on interest rates. Also meeting this week are the central banks of Australia, Brazil, China, Canada, Indonesia, Sweden, and Switzerland.

Looking at key economic data releases this week, the US markets are awaiting the February industrial production figures on Monday.  Europe is awaiting Germany’s ZEW Survey on Tuesday and the UK labor market data on Thursday.   In Asia, China releases its economic activity indicators (retail sales and industrial output) on Monday.

And in earnings news, US firms FedEx, Micron, and Dollar General are reporting this week.  And in China, powerhouse companies Tencent and Alibaba report.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris, France, to discuss President Trump’s upcoming trip to China in April.

·       The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam will host the inaugural China-Vietnam 3+3 Summit through March 17.

·       Vietnam holds parliamentary elections.

·       North Korea holds parliamentary elections.

·       Kazakhstan holds a constitutional referendum on whether to approve a new constitution.  The new constitution includes restructuring Parliament, redefining the balance of powers between state institutions, and expanding constitutional guarantees of human, digital, and environmental rights .

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus celebrates Constitution Day.

·       France holds regional elections including the first round of mayoral elections.

·       The UK celebrates Mothering Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (February)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of the Congo holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 16, 2026

Global

·       The Global Fraud Summit will be held at the Vienna International Centre in Viena, Austria. The Summit will be co-organized by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and INTERPOL.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The first round of preparatory discussions for the review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement begins. 

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits the U.K. to meet with Keir Starmer.

·       Nvidia GTC, a four-day AI conference, including a keynote speech from the chipmaker’s founder and CEO Jensen Huang, begins in San Jose, California.

·       Mexico celebrates Benito Juarez Day, a national holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Housing Starts (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI Common (February)/ CPI Median (February)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (February)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (March)/ Capacity Utilization (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Manufacturing Production (February)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (January)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (January)

·       EARNINGS: Marshalls, SAIC, Telos, Semtech, Dollar Tree

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (February)/ Services NZ PSI (February)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (February)

·       China House Price Index (February)/ Industrial Production (January-February)/ Retail Sales (January-February)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (January-February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ FDI (YTD) (February)

·       India WPI Food Index (February)/ WPI Fuel (February)/ WPI Inflation (February)/ WPI Manufacturing (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (February)/ Industrial Production (February)

·       EARNINGS: Foxconn

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU Energy Ministers will meet in Brussels as the Energy Council, taking stock of the progress made on the action plan for affordable energy, which was presented by the European Commission a year ago to lower energy costs.

·       Separately, the Foreign Affairs Council will meet to discuss Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will unveil new steps the government intends to take to solidify UK energy needs in the wake of the Iran War.

·       Finish President Alexander Stubb travels to London for bilateral meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

·       The 7th meeting of the EU-UK Parliamentary Assembly meets in Brussels through Tuesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, today is the annual review of the “shopping basket” of goods and services used to measure consumer price inflation indices. Also, the S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index and Rightmove’s March House Price Index.

·       Turkey Budget Balance (February)/ Auto Production (February)/ Auto Sales (February)

·       Serbia Building Permits (January)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (February)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (January)/ Core Inflation Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: Standard Life

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Current Account Q4

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q1

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Global

·       Happy St. Patrick’s Day!

·       The International Energy Agency and the OECD cohost a Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change in Paris, France.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump hosts President Donald Trump hosts Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin at the White House.

·       The Senate Homeland Security Committee holds confirmation hearings for Markway Mullin to be the new Secretary of Homeland Security.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ NY Fed Services Activity Index (March)/ Redbook (March/14)/ Pending Home Sales (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/13)  

·       EARNINGS: Prudential, Boku

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import Prices (February)/ Export Prices (February)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (February)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/17)

·       Singapore Balance of Trade (February)/ Non-Oil Exports (February)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (January)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (March)/ Lending Facility Rate (March)/ Loan Growth (February)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (January)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Services PMI (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Scottish parliament debates and votes on the assisted dying for terminally ill adults (Scotland) bill, which is similar to that under consideration for England and Wales. The Isle of Man and Jersey have already passed their own versions of assisted dying laws.

·       UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers the annual Mais Lecture at Bayes Business School in London. Reeves is expected to use it to pitch her vision for closer ties with the EU, central to a new growth strategy for the UK. 

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss preparations for the European Council meetings later this week.

·       The European Parliament lead negotiators will decide whether to restart work on the EU-U.S. trade framework ratification process.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Brussels to discuss the CO2 emission standards for cars and vans.

·       The 26th Accession Conference with Montenegro takes place in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (February)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (February)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (March)/ ZEW Current Conditions (March)

·       Romania Current Account (January)

·       Great Britain BoE Evans Speech

·       Serbia Current Account (January)

·       Belarus GDP (February)

·       EARNINGS: Travis Perkins, Ashtead Technology

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ M3 Money Supply (February)

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q4

Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Global

·       The International Maritime Organization convenes an extraordinary session on the situation in the Middle East in London.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve concludes two days of meetings on interest rates/Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference/USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/13)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/13)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/13)/ PPI (February)/ Factory Orders (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (January)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (January)

·       Chile Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       The Bank of Canada meets on Interest Rates and BoC Head Tiff Macklen holds a press conference/Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (January)/

·       The Central Bank of Brazil meets on Interest rates/Brazil Business Confidence (March)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (January)

·       Argentina Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Micron Technology, General Mills

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, large corporations will begin announcing pay-raise plans for the fiscal year starting in April. Also, Japanese Trade Union Confederation will publish the first tabulation of spring wage-talk results, offering markets an early indication of whether wage growth will sustain the momentum of the past three years.

·       The Japan National Tourism Organization will release data on the number of foreign visitors to Japan in February. While inbound tourism had been recovering since the COVID-19 pandemic, visitors in January declined year on year for the first time in four years amid warnings from the Chinese government to its citizens not to travel to Japan in response to remarks on Taiwan by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Current Account Q4/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (February)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (February)

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Tencent

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Netherlands holds municipal elections.

·       The Tripartite Social Summit takes place in Brussels.  The purpose of the meeting to have a forum for dialogue between the EU institutions at the presidential level and with European social partners at top management levels.  The agenda includes closing investment gaps and reducing strategic dependencies in the EU.

·       The EU Space Agency Council meets in Brussels through March 19th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the Handelsblatt annual Banking Supervision Conference "Regulierung vereinfachen. Stabilität sichern. Wettbewerbsfähigkeit stärken." in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at the hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Euro Area CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Poland Consumer Confidence (March)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (January)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary

·       Russia PPI (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, March 19, 2026 

Global

·       Today is the end of Ramadan (Eid al-Fitr).  Financial markets are closed across most of the Middle East.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will make her first visit to the U.S. as prime minister, holding a summit with Trump. The two leaders are expected to talk about various topics including the Middle East situation as well as economic and security cooperation.  President Trump is expected to pressure Takaichi to send warships to the Middle East to support the US/Israeli war on Iran.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board holds an Open Board Meeting.  The agenda item is to vote on meet to vote on proposed new capital rules for small and large banks, including a re-proposal of the Basel endgame capital plan.

·       USA Building Permits (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/14)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (March)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (March)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (March)/ Philly Fed Employment (March)/ Philly Fed New Orders (March)/ Philly Fed Prices Paid (March)/ New Home Sales (January)/ Wholesale Inventories (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/13)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/19)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/18)/ CB Leading Index (January)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (March)/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Leading Indicator (February)

·       Chile Imports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Accenture, FedEx, Darden

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Thailand’s parliament votes on a candidate for prime minister, a key step for government formation after the February 8th election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of China meets on interest rates.

·       New Zealand GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates/Japan Machinery Orders (January)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/14)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/14)/ Reuters Tankan Index (March)/ Capacity Utilization (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Australia Employment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Participation Rate (February)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (February)/ Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (January)

·       Taiwan M2 Money Supply (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Alibaba, CK Hutchison

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council begins a two-day Euro Summit in Brussels.  Leaders of the EU nations will meet to discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the EU competitiveness agenda.

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosts a bilateral meeting with Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in London.

·       The Airlines4Europe Aviation Summit begins in Brussels. Europe’s leading airline executives, including Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary and Lufthansa’s Carsten Spohr, are expected to join the two-day meeting, which will discuss European competitiveness and reactions to the Middle East conflict.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (February)/ SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       The Bank of England meets on interest rates/Great Britain Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Claimant Count Change (February)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (February)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (February)/ Employment Growth (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ PPI (February)

·       The European Central Bank meets on Interest Rates and ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a press conference/Euro Area Construction Output (January)/ Labour Cost Index Q4/ Wage Growth Q4

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (January)

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Lloyds of London, Enel

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (January)

·       Ghana PPI (February)

Friday, March 20, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Washington DC, the National Cherry Blossom Festival begins and runs until April 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Today is “Quadruple Witching” in US markets, with stock-index futures and options, as well as single-stock options and futures, all expiring.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q4/ Private Spending Q4

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ PPI (February)/ Raw Materials Prices (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/20)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (February)

·       Argentina Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Retail Sales (January)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q4

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan celebrates the Spring Equinox, a national holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)/ Credit Card Spending (February)

·       China Loan Prime Rate 5Y & 1Y (March)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (January)/ Leading Index (January)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (February)

·       Hong Kong Current Account Q4/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (March/06)/ Deposit Growth (March/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/13)/ Infrastructure Output (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Council concludes.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel speaks on the German economy in Goslar, Germany.

·       Germany PPI (February)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (February)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (March)

·       Euro Area Current Account (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Construction Output (January)

·       Poland Business Confidence (March)

·       Slovenia PPI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (March)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ M2 Money Supply (February)

·       Slovakia Current Account (January)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: Smiths Group, JD Wetherspoon

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 21, 2026

Global

·       Today is World Downs Syndrome Day.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Twitter (now known as X) was launched 20 years ago.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives brief acceptance remarks at the American Society for Public Administration (ASPA) Annual Conference: Paul A. Volcker Public Integrity Award Ceremony (virtual).

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) begins in Budapest, Hungary.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a virtual speech at a workshop on the transformation of the international monetary and financial system organized by Suomen Pankki in Saariselkä, Finland.

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Slovenia Parliamentary Elections

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Namibia celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 22, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Bolivia holds regional elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam announces election results from its twice-a-decade National Assembly elections.  Following this, the parliament then meets to pick a prime minister and a president for a five-year term.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France holds its second round of municipal elections.

·       Slovenia holds parliamentary elections.

·       Italy votes on a referendum changing the justice system which will separate the career paths of judges and splits Italy’s judicial self-governing body into two separate councils.  The reform effort is one of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s primary government reform agenda items.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Looking at How the Iran War is Impacting the Rest of the World, Will a Tax on Billionaires Have the Desired Effect? and Why Brazil’s Lula is Struggling Ahead of the October Elections

March 13 - 15, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

The Growing Global Impact of the US-Israel- Iran War

• The Other Global Crisis Stemming from the Strait of Hormuz’s Blockage    Carnegie Endowment

  The Gulf region is a key producer not only of liquified natural gas (LNG) and oil products but also of fertilizer. About one-third of global seaborne trade in fertilizers typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been nearly entirely closed since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. In particular, Gulf countries are important producers of nitrogen fertilizers, which depend primarily on natural gas burned at high pressure in the presence of hydrogen to synthesize ammonia. (The hydrogen usually comes from natural gas as well.). But it’s not just that Gulf fertilizer can’t make it to export markets such as Sudan, Brazil, or Sri Lanka. It’s also that fertilizer producers elsewhere lack key ingredients. This is where the second-order effects of a supply chain crisis appear, just as they did during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which sent fertilizer prices soaring.  Deprived of their natural gas supplies from Qatar, fertilizer firms in India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have had to shut down production. Egypt, another important producer, has lost its gas imports from Israel and must turn to the ever-pricier LNG market. The benchmark price of urea, the most widely traded fertilizer, is up about 30 percent in the last month.

• Germany’s Stress Test    Markus Ziener/German Marshall Fund

  The outbreak of armed conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has become a direct stress test of Chancellor Friedrich Merz's government. It is once again exposing the fragility of Germany's post-2022 energy strategy and the dilemmas of European support for Ukraine. Further, it raises the question of whether Germany can be a security provider in an era of hard conflict.

• How Azerbaijan Views the Iran War        The National Interest

  After two Iranian drones struck Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan exclave last week, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev demanded that Tehran apologize and punish those responsible. Threatening to respond with an “iron fist” if it refused, he ordered the armed forces to prepare “retaliatory measures.” The White House quickly condemned the strikes, declaring: “Attacks on the territory of our partners in the region are unacceptable and will be met with resolute US support for those partners.” The keyword in that statement is partner.  America is drafting a new strategic map—tracing a line from Central Asia through the Caucasus to Europe—and Azerbaijan sits squarely at its center.  Azerbaijan is the only country that borders both Russia and Iran. Any land route linking Europe with East Asia—if it is to avoid control by Moscow or Tehran—must pass through the South Caucasus and across Azerbaijani territory. In a world increasingly shaped by strategic competition between the United States and its allies on one side and China, Russia, and Iran on the other, this territory could decide the winners.

• Shockwaves Across Asia: The Iran War’s Strategic Fallout    The Diplomat

  The Israeli-U.S. military strikes on Iran that began on February 28 have done more than ignite a Middle Eastern war. They have sent shockwaves rolling across Asia, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Sea of Japan, exposing the brittle underpinnings of regional energy systems, straining diplomatic balancing acts, and forcing governments to make hard choices they have long deferred.  The conflict is, at its core, a distant war for most of Asia. But the consequences are arriving fast and close.

• Europe’s Disjointed Response to the U.S.- Israeli War with Iran   Council on Foreign Relations

  The speed and scale of the Iran took most European governments by surprise. After leaving Europe in the dark about the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, the United States launched a major military operation in the Middle East with little to no consultation with its allies in Europe, while expecting to use their bases and receive their broad support. Once again, European leaders found themselves scrambling to react to a conflict they had neither anticipated nor prepared for—and one in which they had little direct leverage. The result has been a strikingly disjointed European response.

• What Is the Endgame in Iran?      Colin Kahl/Foreign Affairs

  The fog of war is thick in Iran, but two things are already crystal clear. No one can question the unrivaled military prowess displayed by the United States and Israel. Since February 28, U.S. and Israeli forces have killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, struck thousands of military targets across Iran. Nor should anyone doubt the cruelty of the Iranian regime they are targeting, which has spent decades killing Americans, brutalizing its own people, threatening its neighbors with missiles and terrorist proxies, and racing to build up its nuclear program.  But so much else about this war of choice remains unclear, and the biggest questions have gone unanswered by the Trump administration. In particular, how will this war end? And what will be the ultimate strategic implications of the Iran gamble?

The Potential Impact of a Billionaire Tax

• The Net Present Value of the Billionaire Tax Act: An Assessment of the Fiscal Effects of California's Proposed Wealth Tax     Benjamin Jaros, Joshua Rauh, Greg Kearney, John Doran, et al.   Stanford University

  The California Billionaire Tax Act of 2026 proposes a one-time 5% tax on the worldwide net worth of individuals exceeding $1 billion. This measure applies to tangible and intangible assets, including those held through trusts and certain recent transfers. Our proxy for these taxable assets in this dataset is the “Net Worth” of each California-based billionaire listed in the 2025 Forbes Billionaires listing. Our preferred revenue estimate implies that approximately 55% of the billionaire income tax base has or will avoid the tax, nearly double the 30.7% break-even threshold under even [proponent’s optimistic] assumption of six confirmed departures at a 1.5% real discount rate and approaching the 61.4% threshold at 3%. The wealth tax has positive net present value only if the one-time revenue exceeds the present value of foregone income taxes from departing billionaires. We simulate draws from uniform distributions over the plausible ranges for discount rates, revenue from the wealth tax, and lost income tax collections; 71% of draws yield a negative net present value, with a mean of [-] $24.7 billion, with a median of −$19.1 billion, and standard deviation of $38.4 billion. [See Figure 3 in gallery]. These estimates are conservative in that we exclude all non-income-tax fiscal spillovers, including lost sales tax, property tax, and business activity, such as employing other income taxpayers.

• Why a Billionaire Wealth Tax Is the Most Direct Policy Tool To Curb The Growing Concentration of Wealth    Emmanuel Saez & Garbiel Zucman, Professors of Economics, University of California, Berkeley (via the press release of the legislation via the website of the Office of Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

  The two UC-Berkely economics professors analyze Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) legislation proposing an annual 5% wealth tax.  In their analysis, the believe it would raise approximately $4.4 trillion over the coming decade.  They also argue that if such a tax had been in place since 1980, the current top 10 wealthiest Americans would be worth $888 billion, about 1/3 of the $2,562 trillion they currently possess as of the end of 2025.

• The Limits of New York’s “Tax the Rich” Policy   E. J. McMahon  Manhattan Institute

  As the nation emerged from the Great Recession in 2010, the capital gains of income millionaires were disproportionately concentrated in the four most populous states: California, New York, Texas, and Florida. Between 2010 and 2022, taxpayers earning $1 million or more in these states accounted, on average, for 50% of the nation’s total capital gains realizations. At the start of the period, California led all states, with 16% of capital gains among all U.S. income millionaires. New York ranked second, at 14%, while Texas and Florida trailed at 8.7% and 8%, respectively. The next 12 years saw a significant shift in the rankings. By 2022, Florida had topped the list, with 16.7% of capital gains income among millionaire earners, followed by California at 14.9% and Texas at 9.7%. New York had dropped to fourth place, with 8.9%—essentially changing places with Florida.

• How Much Revenue Would Senator Sanders’ Wealth Tax Proposal Really Raise?   The Tax Foundation

  According to the Tax Foundation analysis of Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) recently introduced 5% wealth tax on billionaires, the projected $4.4 trillion of revenues raised over 10 years would be significantly less.   The analysis also points out that most European countries have repealed wealth taxes due to limited revenue and administrative and compliance challenges.

The Americas

• Why Lula is Struggling: Brazil’s October Election Now Looks Like a Coin-Flip     Brian Winter/Americas Quarterly

  As recently as six weeks ago, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seemed to be cruising to reelection. Unemployment was at record lows; the stock market at record highs; inflation had closed 2025 at its lowest level in seven years. Lula’s archrival, former President Jair Bolsonaro, was in prison—and had just chosen Flávio, widely seen as the least charismatic of his four sons, to be his preferred candidate in October’s vote. Today, there is nary a breeze.  A Datafolha survey published Sunday showed Lula with just a three percentage point lead in a hypothetical runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, down from a 15-point advantage in December. Other polls have shown similar dynamics. The tightening is in some ways a return to familiar battle lines; after all, Lula won the 2022 election by just a 51%-49% margin. But there are signs that the Lula of 2026 is struggling to connect with voters and could be at genuine risk. 

• Latin American Small States in the Belt & Road Initiative: Narrating Status Amidst US-China Tensions    Zara Albright/Diego Telias/Tom Long – Cambridge Review of International Affairs

  Abstract:  Starting in 2017, most small states in Latin America and the Caribbean joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).  Near-uniform membership contrasts with variation in the Asian power’s importance to regional economies. The BRI has brought little new investment in these states; recently, participation has risked retaliation from the United States.  What explains these states’ affinity for the BRI, despite heterogeneous material costs and benefits?  We argue that the region’s small states have approached the BRI less for its immediate material benefits than for the salient discursive resources that it offers.  Political leaders mobilize these resources to construct status narratives that justify, especially to domestic audiences, how BRI participation will improve national status. We analyze paired case studies during each of two temporal waves: Chile and Ecuador (wave 1, 2017–2019) and Honduras and Nicaragua (wave 2, 2020–2025). In addition, we consider Panama as the first Latin American signatory (wave 1) and the only country in the region to renounce BRI membership (wave 2).

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The ABA and IIB Hold Their Big Annual Conferences, The Bipartisan Housing Bill Faces New Skepticism, And Fintech Firms Now Race To Become Banks

March 9 - 13, 2026

Washington will be awash with bankers this week as the American Bankers Association (ABA) and the Institute for International Bankers (IIB) both hold their annual Washington conferences simultaneously.   The ABA will have a powerhouse lineup on Wednesday with Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould, and FDIC Chair Travis Hill speaking. 

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, the Senate is in session, but there is nothing significant to the financial world happening this week.  We would note that the White House formally submitted the nomination papers to the Senate Banking Committee for Kevin Warsh’s nomination to be the next Federal Reserve Board Chair.  But with the Justice Department’s investigation into Fed Chair Kevin Warsh apparently still ongoing, the Warsh nomination is going to sit and wait, as Senator Tom Tillis (R-NC) and a number of other senators have said they will block the nomination until the investigation is stopped. 

The House is out of session this week, so they can go to the Doral Resort in Florida for their Legislative Retreat, where President Trump will be speaking to them on Monday.

Also, last week, the bipartisan housing bill hit turbulence when Senator Tillis said he was withdrawing his support due to a provision that blocks private equity firms from buying single-family homes – something President Trump has championed as part of his affordability policy drive.

Tillis was joined in his opposition to the provision by the National Association of Home Builders and a number of House Republicans who had been supporting the bill, including House Financial Services Committee Vice Chair Bill Huizenga (R-MI).  President Trump is adamant that the provision remain in the bill, leaving the much-wanted package in limbo about when it could get a final vote.

Finally, we would note an interesting trend in the bank regulatory world: FinTechs and crypto firms seeking banking licenses. On Wednesday, crypto firm Kraken was granted a Federal Reserve master account. And on Thursday, payment company Revolut applied for a US bank license. This follows PayPal's December application for a state banking license.   We expect to see a number of other FinTechs and crypto firms doing the same in the coming year.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Wednesday, March 11, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Finance Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth Subcommittee holds a hearing on "The Fiscal Outlook: 2027-2036."

House of Representatives

·       Friday, March 13, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations holds a hearing entitled “Broken Promises: Failures of the Little Rock Housing Authority and the Impact on Residents.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Wednesday, March 11, 8:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman

gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, March 12, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Basel III and Bank Capital Rules at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Monday, March 9, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC hosts the 45th Annual Small Business Forum at SEC Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, March 12, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC’s Investor Advisory Committee meets. Among the agenda items includes discussing public company disclosure reform, fund proxy voting, and a potential recommendation regarding the tokenization of equity securities.

·       Thursday, March 12, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Wednesday, March 11, 9:30 a.m. – FDIC Chair Travis Hill will participate in a fireside chat at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit, Washington, D.C.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Wednesday, March 11, 10:00 a.m. –Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will participate in a fireside chat at t the American Bankers Association Washington Summit, Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       Thursday, March 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration Board meets. 

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Monday – Wednesday, March 9 – 11 – The American Bankers Association holds its Washington Summit in Washington, D.C.

·       Monday – Wednesday, March 8 – 10 – The Institute of International Bankers holds its 2026 Annual Washington Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, March 10, 7:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds a virtual 2026 Global AI Update.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, March 10, 8:30 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. – The US Chamber of Commerce holds its 2026 Tax Summit.

·       Tuesday, March 10, 3:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "The Future of FinTech: How Emerging Financial Technologies Are Shaping Our Financial Lives."

·       Thursday, March 12, 11:00 a.m. – The Cato Institute hosts an event where Federal Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Basel III and Bank Capital Rules at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

The Iran War Expands, G7 Ministers Meet To Discuss Releasing Strategic Petroleum Reserves, US and China Hold Trade Talks in Paris,  and Markets Grapple with Spiking Oil Prices

March 8 - 15, 2026

The conflict in Iran will continue to dominate the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape in the week ahead.  Oil prices spiked over $100 a barrel over the weekend, surpassing $110 before settling back around the $100-mark early Monday.  The Strait of Hormuz has become gridlocked with oil carriers.

Markets are looking for the “off-ramp” of hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran but none seem to be materializing as the US/Israeli forces grind away at Iranian military targets and infrastructure (including Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities over the weekend).  Iranian missile and drone attacks continue (hitting 14 countries) but have decreased, according to US military sources, by roughly 90% in the last four days.  Yet, Iranian leaders remain defiant, choosing as their new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in airstrikes last week. The new Supreme Leader is seen as hardline – perhaps even more so – than his late father.  It is believed his wife and son were killed along with his father. He has vowed to fight on.

With intensifying concern over the spike in oil prices and massive likely economic impact – especially for the European Union and most major Indo-Asian nations (except for China, which has built up an estimated 2-billion-barrel oil reserve), G-7 finance ministers are meeting today (Monday) to discuss a coordinated release of strategic oil reserves. 

Elsewhere this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to arrive in Paris to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss the agenda for President Trump’s upcoming trip to Beijing (March 31 – April 2) to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  While tariffs are sure to be the primary discussion point between Trump and Xi, it has been noted that so far no US CEO delegation has been arranged – something US corporates are hoping for to secure deals.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, while investors will continued to be laser-focused on the Iran conflict, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are now going into their quiet-period before their respective rate-setting meetings (the Fed meets on March 17 & 18 and the ECB meets March 19) – meaning, there will be likely little to no commentary from the two central banks on the potential economic impact of the Iran situation.  

In terms of major economic data releases this week, the US will release February CPI on Wednesday and January PCE on Friday.  Also out this week will be the January durable goods orders and the University of Michigan’s March consumer survey on Friday.

In Europe, the UK GDP is out on Friday, and Germany’s industrial production, January factory orders, and trade balance are out on Tuesday.  In the Indo-Pacific, Japan’s February Economy Watchers Survey and China will release February’s inflation report (reflecting the Lunar New Year holidays) on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 8, 2026

 Global

·       Daylight Saving Time begins in the United States with clocks going forward one hour in each state except Hawaii and Arizona, which do not observe daylight saving time.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombia holds legislative elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress winds down.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Commonwealth Foreign Ministers Meeting will be held in London.

·       Switzerland holds a nationwide referendum. Voters will be asked on whether to cap the annual license fee for the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation at 200 francs while exempting other companies from the levy, whether to introduce individual taxation requiring married couples to file separate tax returns, whether to create a federal climate fund, and whether to protect cash in the constitution by guaranteeing that coins and banknotes remain in circulation.

·       Germany will hold state elections in Baden-Wurttemberg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 9, 2026

Global

·       G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors are expected to meet virtually to discuss the US/Israel War with Iran and the possible coordinated release of strategic oil reserves.

·       IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva gives the keynote speech at the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Future of Global Economy among Fluid International Economic and Monetary Order Symposium” in Tokyo, Japan.

·       The UN Security Council will meet on the situation in Afghanistan.

·       Today is the 250th anniversary of the publication of Adam Smith’s An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that will put an EchoStar 25 broadcast communications satellite into geostationary orbit is scheduled to launch from Cape Canaveral in Florida at 11.14 pm local time.

·       The US Senate is in session this week.  The US House of Representatives are out of session this week and will be holding their annual legislative retreat at President Trump’s Doral resort in Doral, Florida.  President Trump will speak to the Caucus.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (February)/ Auto Exports (February)/ Auto Production (February)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       EARNINGS: Hewlett Packard, Korn Ferry

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Economic ministers will gather in Manila, the Philippines.  The region is struggling to assess and plan  accordingly from the Iran conflict and will focus heavily on the war.  They will also discuss policy proposals to generate growth in ASEAN. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Overtime Pay (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Bank Lending (February)/ Coincident Index (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (February)/ Leading Economic Index (January)

·       China Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)/ Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss energy prices and impact on the Euro area economy, the digital finance workstream, macroeconomic development in the Euro area, an assessment of the Belgian draft budgetary plan for 2026 and prepare for the upcoming Euro Summit on March 19 & 20.

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss investing in children, Human Capital, quality jobs and AI, and how to break the poverty cycle.

·       In Portugal, José Seguro is sworn in as president.

·       NATO will hold “Cold Response 2026,” a military exercise being held in arctic Norway, running through March 19.

·       The 2nd Nuclear Energy Summit will begin in Paris, France.

·       Commonwealth Day service at Westminster Abbey marking the annual celebration of the Commonwealth of Nations. King Charles and Queen Camilla, and the Prince and Princess of Wales, are expected to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Frank Elderson gives remarks at the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) annual plenary meeting hosted by the South African Reserve Bank in Pretoria, South Africa.

·       Germany Factory Orders (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (January)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ ECOFIN Meeting

·       Hungary Budget Balance (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Israel Business Confidence (February)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (February)

Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos at the White House to discuss bilateral trade and regional security issues.

·       US Presidential Envoy’s Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the Iran situation.

·       Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy gives his annual pre-budget speech at the Empire Club of Canada.

·       The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission holds its 38th annual Regulatory Information Conference through March 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (February)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (March/07)/ Existing Home Sales (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (March/06)

·       El Salvador PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: Domino’s Pizza, Oracle, NioNTech

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visits New York until Wednesday. He will participate in a series of high-level engagements, including an address before a special session of the United Nations' General Assembly.

·       South Korea and the U.S. will hold their annual Freedom Shield military drills, which involve large-scale live defensive training exercises, until March 19. In previous years, regional tensions have sometimes spiked during the exercises, as North Korea condemns them as rehearsal for an invasion, and past military maneuvers have sparked clashes in border areas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (March)/ NAB Business Confidence (February)/ Building Permits (January)/ Private House Approvals (January)

·       Japan Household Spending (January)/ Average Cash Earnings (January)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q4/ GDP Price Index Q4/ Machine Tool Orders (February)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January-February)/ Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (January)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (February)

·       EARNINGS: Jardine Matheson

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss savings and investment union, economic governance, and recovery and resilience in the financial sector.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       ECB Governing Council members Gediminas Simkus and Madis Muller join a roundtable discussion on “Baltic Economic Resilience” at Lietuvos Banks in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (February)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (February)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (February)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Current Account (January)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (January)

·       Italy PPI (January)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (February)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (February)

·       EARNINGS: Volkswagen, Hugo Boss, Lindt

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (January)

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q4

·       EARNINGS: Saudi Aramco

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Forex Trading Expo begins in Nairobi, Kenya and runs through March 11.

·       The  Africa CISO Summit in Nairobi, Kenya begins and runs through March 11.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (February)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (February)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (February)

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Global

·       The International Energy Administration’s Monthly Oil Report is released.

·       OPEC releases its monthly report.

·       Today is the 150th anniversary of Alexander Graham Bell speaking for the first time on the telephone. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·        Chile's new president, Jose Antonio Kast, will be sworn into office.

·       The Inter-American Development Bank Group Annual meeting takes place in Asuncion.

·       The US Infrastructure Summit takes place in Washington, D.C.  Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and a number of members of Congress will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the American Bankers Association Washington Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (March/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (March/06)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ CPI (February)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (March/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (February)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (January)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Hill & Smith

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan PPI (February)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (December)

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (January)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February/28)

·       China Vehicle Sales (February)/ National People’s Congress

·       Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Cathy Pacific

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers in Brussels through March 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a  fireside chat at the 32nd Encuentro del Sector Financiero organized by ABC and Deloitte in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a guest lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management Centre for Central Banking in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speaks in a House of Lords Financial Services Regulation Committee hearing on stablecoins.

·       Germany Inflation Rate (February)

·       Romania Retail Sales (January)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (January)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (January)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Corporate Profits (December)

·       EARNINGS: Rheinmetall, Legal & General, Kloeckner & Co, London Gatwick Airport

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on Basel III and Bank Capital Rules at the Cato Institute in Washington, D.C.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (February)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Building Permits (January)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (January)/ Wholesale Sales (January)

·       USA Housing Starts (January)/ Building Permits (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (March/07)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (March/06)/15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/12)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/11)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (February)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Adobe, Computacenter, Dollar General

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q4

·       Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q1/ Foreign Bond Investment (March/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (March/07)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (March)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (January)

·       India Inflation Rate (February)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (February)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period in advance of the March 18 – 19 rate-setting meeting.

·       Bank of England Governor and Financial Stability Board Chair Andrew Bailey gives opening remarks at the Financial Stability Board Payments Summit in London.

·       Bank of England Director Vickey White speaks at the Connect Global Group’s 4th Annual Treasury and Capital markets Forum in London.

·       ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks on financial stability at Bloomberg’s Future of Finance summit in Paris, France.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (February)

·       Romania Balance of Trade (January)

·       Turkey Current Account (January)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing Rate (March)/ Overnight Lending Rate (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/06)

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Swiss Re, BMW, TP ICAP, Vivendi, RWE, Savills, Helios Towers

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Mauritius celebrates Independence Day.

·       The Nigeria Solar Forum is being held in Lagos, Nigeria.

·       The PanAfrican Tourism Board hosts a conference in Johannesburg, South Africa running through March 14.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Current Account Q4/ Gold Production (January)/ Mining Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Friday, March 13, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro and interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez plan to meet in the border city of Cucuta, Colombia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Industrial Production (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (February)/ Employment Change (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Wages (February)/ Capacity Utilization Q4/ Manufacturing Sales (January)

·       USA Personal Income (January)/ Personal Spending (January)/ PCE Price Index (January)/ JOLTs Job Openings (January)/ Michigan Current Conditions (March)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (March/13)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (February)

·       EARNINGS: Lennar

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (February)/ Visitor Arrivals (January)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Hong Kong Industrial Production Q4

·       India Bank Loan Growth (February/28)/ Deposit Growth (February/28)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (March/06)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (February)

·       Kazakhstan GDP (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets with Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in North Norway.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (February)/ Current Account (January)

·       Romania Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Great Britain GDP (January)/ Goods Trade Balance (January)/ Construction Output (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (February)

·       Hungary Construction Output (January)/ Industrial Production (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (February)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)

·       Italy Industrial Production (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (February)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (January)

·       Greece Construction Output Q4

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (January)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, March 14, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. National Energy Dominance Council, a body created by U.S. President Donald Trump to boost American energy production, will co-host the two-day Indo-Pacific Energy Security Ministerial and Business Forum in Tokyo. Nearly a dozen Indo-Pacific countries are expected to attend the event, which will include a behind-closed-doors ministerial meeting.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (February)/ M2 Money Supply (February)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (February)/ Total Social Financing (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 15, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris, France to discuss President Trump’s upcoming trip to China in April.

·       The Academy Awards are held in Los Angeles.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnam holds parliamentary elections.

·       North Korea holds parliamentary elections.

·       Kazakhstan holds a constitutional referendum on whether to approve a new constitution.  The new constitution includes restructuring Parliament, redefining the balance of powers between state institutions, and expanding constitutional guarantees of human, digital, and environmental rights .

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Belarus celebrates Constitution Day.

·       France holds regional elections including the first round of mayoral elections.

·       The UK celebrates Mothering Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (February)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Republic of the Congo holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Iran War: What to Expect and Can There Be Change?  Challenges to China’s Economy, The Coming US-Cuba Showdown, and America’s Great Happiness Compression

March 6 - 8, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them both interesting and useful.  Have a great weekend.

The Iran War

• The Mirage of the New Middle East: War With Iran Won’t Reshape the Region the Way America Wants     Dalia Dassa Kaye/Foreign Affairs

  Eager to show that he can do what no American leader has done before, President Donald Trump has chosen conflict over diplomacy and gone to war with Iran. How this war will end remains uncertain. But when it does, the United States will have to face what comes next. To the extent that the Trump administration has considered plans for “the day after,” it seems to have made a series of overly optimistic assumptions about how the war might reshape Iran and the Middle East.  The outcome of this war will likely fall far short of these rosy expectations. After the bombing ends, Iran and the region could look worse, or at least not better, than they did before the war. The fighting could create a power vacuum in Tehran, sour U.S. allies on their partnerships with Washington, and produce ripple effects on conflicts elsewhere in the world, all without removing sources of regional strife that have nothing to do with the regime in Iran.

• How Far Can Russian Arms Help Iran?  Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

  While the United States and Israel are starting another military intervention against Iran, Russia is increasing arms supplies to the isolated Islamic nation—despite its own ongoing war with Ukraine. Tehran is already in possession of Russian trainer jets, attack helicopters, armored vehicles, and small arms. Now the two countries have signed another major deal, according to the Financial Times, under which Russia will supply Iran with Verba man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) worth 500 million euros. Despite the growing scale of the cooperation in military technology, these arms shipments are still unlikely to be able to protect Iran from U.S. or Israeli air strikes. What’s far more likely is that Russian weapons will continue and to grow significantly if Russia gets the opportunity.

• War With Iran: Why Now and What Comes Next    Carnegie Connects Podcast

  Host Aaron David Miller discusses the Iran War with the Brooking Institution’s Suzanne Maloney, International Crisis Group’s Ali Vaez, and Yale University’s Rob Malley on these and other Iran-related issues, on the next Carnegie Connects.

• Good News: Iran’s Nuclear and Missile Programs Look Destroyed. Bad News: The Regime May Survive     19fortyfive.com

  Dr. Andrew Latham, a professor of international relations and fellow at Defense Priorities, evaluates this “Trumpian Dilemma.” He argues that while the mission to disable programs has been a triumph, the mission to reshape the Iranian political order remains a dangerous, open-ended commitment that may collide with the administration’s “America First” instincts.

China’s Economic Outlook

• When Does China Stop Growing (Entirely)?     Dereck Scissors/AEI

  The Chinese economy has been generally weaker than acknowledged in the 2020s. The most frequently discussed solutions, such as stimulating consumption, cannot generate a sizable, sustained impact for more than a year or so.  Reinflating the property bubble would do so. It cannot be done immediately or easily but could for a multiyear period bring clearly faster economic growth without wrenching dislocation or automatically adding to the debt burden. In the longer term, even successful property reflation will not matter much. Unwillingness to reform, debt accumulation, and especially demography guarantee a China that essentially stops growing by the late 2030s.

• China’s Cheap Money Is Shaking $9.5 Trillion Global Loan Market     Bloomberg

  Chinese banks, flush with low-cost funds, are reshaping parts of the global loan market, underscoring how deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy are increasingly influencing competition with international lenders. Much like US and European manufacturers who have long complained about being undercut by cheaper Chinese rivals, bankers at global institutions now say they’re facing the financial equivalent: being priced out of some of Asia’s most sought-after borrowers as Chinese lenders extend cheaper credit across borders. Enabled by Beijing’s monetary easing to counter slowing growth, Chinese banks are expanding overseas lending amid weakening domestic credit demand. That edge may prove even more significant as the Iran crisis threatens to upend global energy markets, raising the likelihood that major central banks will hold off easing interest rates amid mounting uncertainty.

Growing US – Cuban Tensions 

• The Coming Showdown Over Cuba     Rut Diamint & Laura Tedesco/Foreign Affairs

  President Trump stated this past week that “Cuba is going to fall pretty soon.  They want to make a deal badly.” Even before the current crisis, the Cuban people had long suffered under a cruel dictatorship, ruinous economic policies and mismanagement, and a six-decade U.S. trade embargo. In recent years, the island has experienced gasoline and medicine shortages, routine power outages, food cost increases, and mosquito-transmitted-disease outbreaks that have overwhelmed the public health system.  Havana has little room to maneuver. Yet the chances that Trump will launch a Maduro-style military mission in Cuba remain low. After his Venezuela operation, undertaking a similar ouster would no longer have the advantage of surprise, and Cuba’s security forces are generally believed to be more loyal to their regime than Venezuela’s were to theirs.

• Seven Charts on Cuba’s Economic Woes     Americas Society/Council of the Americas

  The Caribbean island is undergoing its worst economic period in decades while facing rising U.S. pressure.  These seven charts show how the island country is facing an extraordinary economic and demographic collapse.

• Cuba’s Military: The Institution Washington Cannot Ignore    Americas Quarterly

  For more than six decades, U.S. policy has failed to dislodge the Cuban regime, even when it appeared economically and politically vulnerable. As Washington again intensifies pressure on the island, policymakers must confront a central reality often overlooked in external debates: the decisive role of Cuba’s Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR).  More than a traditional military institution, the FAR functions as a political, economic, and administrative pillar of the state. It mediates regime continuity, oversees strategic sectors of the economy, and would shape the parameters of any eventual transition. In practice, the keys to both change and stability in Cuba are likely to rest not with opposition movements or external actors, but with key members of the FAR.

America’s Mood vs. Historic Economic Growth

• Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023    Richard V. Burkhauser & Kevin Corinth/National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We compare trends in absolute poverty before (1939–1963) and after (1963–2023) the War on Poverty was declared. Our primary methodological contribution is to create a post-tax post-transfer income measure using the 1940, 1950 and 1960 Decennial Censuses through imputations of taxes and transfers as well as certain forms of market income including perquisites (Collins and Wanamaker 2022), consistent with the full income measures developed by Burkhauser et al. (2024) for subsequent years. From 1939–1963, poverty fell by 29 percentage points, with even larger declines for Black people and all children. While absolute poverty continued to fall following the War on Poverty’s declaration, the pace was no faster, even when evaluating the trends relative to a consistent initial poverty rate. Furthermore, the pre-1964 decline in poverty among working age adults and children was achieved almost completely through increases in market income, during which time only 2–3 percent of working age adults were dependent on the government for at least half of their income, compared to dependency rates of 7–15 percent from 1972–2023. In contrast to progress on absolute poverty, reductions in relative poverty were more modest from 1939–1963 and even less so since then.

• State of the Nation: National Malaise Continues         Gallup

  Each January, as part of its Mood of the Nation poll, Gallup asks Americans whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied with a battery of national conditions, offering a public "state of the union" measured ahead of the president's address to Congress. In January 2026, an average of 36% said they were very or somewhat satisfied across 25 aspects of the country, the numerically lowest reading in the poll's history dating back to 2001. The Trend: For two decades, average satisfaction with these national conditions stayed within a narrow band, fluctuating between 42% and 49%. It fell to 40% in January 2021 and has declined further since.

• The Great Happiness Compression   Home Economics

  American happiness has fallen off a cliff. The General Social Survey has tracked this since 1972. Their data shows the share of Americans reporting they are "very happy" dropped from 29% before the pandemic to 22% in the most recent reading—the largest decline over any comparable span in the survey's 52-year history. The chart shows the shift in the "very happy" distribution across the population, along with the ten demographic groups that experienced the biggest happiness declines. The groups that lost the most happiness are the ones that had the most to begin with. The bottom barely budged. The groups that held up best share one trait: social connection. People who see friends often dropped just 4 points, compared to a 9-point drop among those who see friends rarely. Happiness for those who socialize with neighbors dropped less than for those who rarely do.