Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 3/2/26 Francis Kelly 3/2/26

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Senate Moves Closer to Passing Landmark Housing Legislation, and the Federal Reserve Continues to Battle the Justice Department Over the Powell Investigation

March 2 - 6, 2026

Washington is enjoying another snowy day (ok – not really, we are sick of it). But Congress is busy this week as the Senate Banking Committee votes this evening on historical bipartisan housing legislation.

The bill aims to increase affordable housing by reforming zoning, streamlining federal permitting, expanding the HOME Investment Partnerships program, and strengthening rural housing programs.

The legislation was passed by the House of Representatives in December. President Trump is expected to sign the legislation once it is passed by the Senate.

Also this week, SEC Chair Paul Atkins will be joining with CFTC Chair Michael Selig on Tuesday at the Milken Institute’s Future of Finance 2026 Conference in Washington, D.C. The conference features a powerhouse lineup of speakers, including White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett, House Financial Services Committee Chair Representative French Hill, and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner.

Meanwhile, new reports suggest the ongoing criminal investigation by the Justice Department into Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell for allegedly lying in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee is not going away. Politico and the Wall Street Journal reported late last week that the Federal Reserve is battling the Justice Department in federal court over a grand jury subpoena. The matter is now before a federal judge, and it is unclear when a ruling will be issued.

The entire situation has angered members of the Banking Committee – especially Republican members, including Committee Chair, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) – who strongly dispute that Powell lied to the committee and are bewildered as to why the investigation is even taking place. Moreover, committee member Senator Tom Tillis (R-NC) has said he will block the confirmation of Federal Reserve Board Chair-nominee Kevin Warsh until the case is dismissed.

Next week, we note that both the American Bankers Association (March 9 -11) and the Institute for International Bankers(March 8 – 10) are holding their annual conferences. Washington will be awash in bankers! More in next week’s edition.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, March 4, 10:30 a.m. – The Joint Economic Committee holds a hearing on "Evaluating the U.S. Competitiveness and Investment Advantages of a Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax."

House of Representatives

· Wednesday, March 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a mark-up hearing on five pieces of legislation. You can see which bills and which amendments are under consideration HERE.

· Thursday, March 5, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee will hold a hearing entitled “Fighting Fraud on the Front Lines: Challenges and Opportunities for Financial Institutions.”

· Thursday, March 5, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Capital Markets Subcommittee will hold a meeting entitled “The Role of Self-Regulatory Organizations in U.S. Markets: Examining FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) and the MSRB (Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board)."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

The White House

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, March 3, 9:55 a.m. –New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the ACU Governmental Affairs Conference 2026 organized by America's Credit Unions.

· Tuesday, March 3, 11:55 a.m. – Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a conversation before the 2026 Bloomberg Invest Conference.

· Thursday, March 5, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks virtually at the “Navigating What’s Next: Perspective on the Economy & Innovation.”

· Friday, March 6, 1:30 p.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in “On the Safe-haven Status of the Dollar" panel before the 2026 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Friday, March 6, Noon – US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivers a keynote address at the SIEPR Economic Summit at Stanford University, Stanford, California.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, March 3, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in the opening plenary of the Milken Institute's Future of Finance 2026 event in Washington D.C. He will be joined by CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, and the conversation will focus on modernizing market regulation.

· Wednesday, March 4, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Private Market Roundtable to discuss “governance, valuation, and other considerations with the aim of promoting responsible retailization.”

· Thursday, March 5, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, March 3, 9:00 a.m. – CFTC Chair Michael Selig will participate in the opening plenary of the Milken Institute's Future of Finance 2026 event in Washington D.C. He will be joined by SEC Chair Paul Atkins, and the conversation will focus on modernizing market regulation.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Sunday – Thursday, March 1 – 5 – The Government Affairs Conference 2026, the largest and most influential government relations conference for the credit union industry, runs through March 5th in Washington, D.C. New York Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO John Williams will speak.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, March 2, 1:00 p.m. – The New America holds a virtual discussion entitled "A Quarter of U.S. Homes Cost Under $200,000. Why Can't Families Buy Them?

· Wednesday, March 4, 11:00 a.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a discussion on "Is Homeownership Still Part of the American Dream?"

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 3/2/26 Francis Kelly 3/2/26

The Global Week Ahead

The US Goes to War Against Iran, China’s 14th National People’s Congress Holds Its 4th Session, Canada’s Carney Travels to India, and Markets Focus on US Jobs Numbers and ECB Speeches

March 1 - 8, 2026

In our last Global Week Ahead, we suggested we were likely to live through a historic week. With the US and Israeli massive attack on Iran, the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and a large number of senior Iranian leaders, the Middle East is now forever changed. At the time of this writing, more than 2,000 military targets have been hit inside Iran – including the destruction of most of its navy. In response, Iran has lashed out, firing ballistic missiles and drones, striking eleven countries (Israel, Bahrain, Cyprus, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman).

As to how long the conflict lasts is anyone’s guess, as no new popular uprising against the Iranian regime has begun (yet), and how the regime would be replaced and who would lead is completely unclear. And the longer-term impact on oil and gas prices is very much in flux, dependent on the length and impact of the conflict.

Elsewhere in the world, China begins its People’s Political Consultative Conference on Wednesday and its National People’s Congress (NPC) on Thursday – otherwise known as the “Two Sessions” legislative term. Both events are taking place in Beijing and will formalize the 15th Five-Year Plan for economic policy through 2030.

Markets will be watching the Sessions to expand debt-funded social spending and boost domestic consumption to balance China’s massive reliance on exports. Politically, in the wake of the large number of senior military officers being purged and arrested in recent weeks and months (nine more senior generals were removed just last week, bringing the total to more than 200 in the last year), Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely to unveil a small cadre of new military leaders.

Here in the US, President Trump will be holding three high-level meetings this week, starting with a bilateral meeting with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) at the White House. Trump and Lula have often verbally sparred over the years, and the meeting is an attempt to improve relations and discuss trade. The US and Brazil traded more than $95 billion in goods and services in 2025, with the US selling more than $55 billion to Brazil (up almost 11% from 2024).

Then on Tuesday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visits with Trump at the White House. The two leaders are expected to discuss the status of EU-US trade negotiations and Merz’s meetings last week with Chinese President Xi. The European Parliament has put on hold the US – EU trade process in the wake of President Trump slapping the EU with 10% tariffs following the Supreme Court’s recent decision striking down Trump’s use of IEEPA (the International Emergency Economic Powers Act). Merz is hoping to serve as a mediator to the impasse.

Finally, President Trump will host a number of Latin American leaders at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday. Details on the exact agenda are still hazy, but confirmed attendees include Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, Argentinian President Javier Milei, El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele, Paraguayan President Santiago Peña, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz, and Honduran President Tito Asfura.

The summit comes ahead of Trump’s visit to China in April and is likely to focus on China’s investments and influence in the Hemisphere, and on how the US is increasingly willing to compete. The meeting also comes after last month’s military operation in Venezuela, taking out President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, and a meeting in early January hosted by US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine for defense chiefs and senior military officials from 34 Western Hemisphere countries

Elsewhere, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will be in Asia this week. The most important set of meetings will be with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during which the two leaders will discuss bilateral trade, energy, and critical minerals. But the meeting is also being seen as a major reset between the two countries following allegations made by former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2023 that the Indian government was responsible for the assassination of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijare in Canada. Carney will also travel to Australia and Japan for meetings mostly focused on trade, critical minerals, energy, and mutual security issues.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, markets will be largely focused on the US jobs report that comes out on Friday. The release comes after the ISM Indices on Monday, and the Federal Reserve publishes the Beige Book on Wednesday.

Turning to Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will give several speeches this week, as will a number of ECB board members. In terms of economic releases, February inflation prints for the Eurozone, Italy, Switzerland, and Sweden are on Thursday. The big event in the UK this week will be Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivering the Spring Statement on the budget and economy on Tuesday.

In Asia, aside from the Two Sessions discussed above, markets are looking to China’s February PMIs, due on Wednesday. And in Japan, the Ministry of Finance (MoF) releases the Q4 Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations on Tuesday, the February consumer sentiment index on Wednesday, and the Shunto wage demands (the annual synchronized wage negotiations held every February and March between labor unions and employers) are presented on Tuesday.

Finally, we are still working through earnings season, with tech powerhouse Broadcom reporting on Wednesday and wholesaling giant Costco reporting on Thursday (which may provide interesting indicators of the impact of the Supreme Court’s decision on IEEPA and overall trade policy on costs).

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Global

· OPEC is scheduled to meet virtually to discuss oil prices.

· The U.S. takes the rotating chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

· Today is the first day of the meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to India for meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

· Beijing is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed from about 85 per cent to 15 per cent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will visit Singapore through March 3.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There was an informal video conference of EU Foreign Ministers to discuss the situation in Iran and broader Middle East.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, March 2, 2026

Global

· The International Atomic Energy Agency begins board meetings in Vienna, Austria.

· The OECD Financial Markets Week Spring 2026 begins in Paris, with senior government officials, central bankers and financial regulators meeting to discuss recent market developments and new policy proposals.

· The Jewish holiday of Purim, remembering the time of the biblical character Esther, begins this evening, continuing tomorrow.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) at the White House. The two leaders – who have been sparring with each other for years, particularly as Trump has defended Lula’s political rival, former President Jair Bolsonaro – are expected to discuss how to improve bilateral relations. Specifically, the two presidents are expected to discuss critical minerals, agriculture, and trade in general as well as the situation in Venezuela.

· The U.S. Supreme Court could announce a decision on if Donald Trump can appeal E. Jean Caroll case verdict.

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit Australia through March 6.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki gives remarks at a conference hosted by Norges Bank in Oslo.

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (January)

· Mexico Business Confidence (February)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices/ New Orders/ Employment (February)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Peru Inflation Rate (February)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (February)

· EARNINGS: ADT, SELAEDAIR, AES

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney are set to hold talks in New Delhi, where they are expected to review progress in bilateral ties and take stock of cooperation in areas such as trade and investment, energy, critical minerals and innovation. They will also exchange views on regional and global developments. Carney's India visit, the first leg of a three-nation trip that will also take him to Australia and Japan, comes amid a normalization of bilateral ties, which witnessed serious strains during the tenure of his predecessor, Justin Trudeau, due to a diplomatic spat over the murder of a Sikh separatist.

· Malaysia will decide on constitutional amendments with a bill to limit the prime minister's tenure to two terms, alongside efforts to separate the roles of attorney general and public prosecutor. The twin reforms aim to address long-standing concerns over concentration of executive power and prosecutorial independence. If passed, the changes would mark one of the most significant recalibrations of Malaysia's executive-legal architecture since independence.

· The Philippine House of Representatives' justice committee will deliberate on the merits of impeachment complaints made against Duterte.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks to a group of local leaders in Wakayama, Japan.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at a conference hosted by Norges Bank in Oslo.

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (February)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (February)/ Company Gross Profits Q4/ Business Inventories Q4/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (February)/ Commodity Prices (February)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (February)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (February)

· China FDI (YTD) (January)

· Sri Lanka PPI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of the EU General Affairs Council through March 3.

· MWC Barcelona, the largest mobile telecoms event in the world, opens at the city’s main conference space Fira Gran Via, running until Thursday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives gives welcoming remarks at International Women's Day "Closing the Financial Literacy" event in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat the annual conference of the Spanish Centre for Sustainable and Responsible Finance (FINRESP) in Madrid, Spain.

· Bank of England External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives a speech entitled “Getting the Right Directions” at a conference hosted by Norges Bank in Oslo

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen to present keynote address at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Germany Retail Sales (January)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Bundesbank Nagel Speech

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (February)/ BoE Consumer Credit (January)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (January)/ M4 Money Supply (January)/ Net Lending to Individuals (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ BoE Taylor Speech

· Hungary Balance of Trade (January)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (January)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ Government Budget 2025

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (February)/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Ukraine Current Account (January)

· EARNINGS: Bank of Ireland, Bunzl

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Inspire Africa Product Tour, bringing together builders and founders from across the continent, begins in Nairobi, Kenya.

· The Infrastructure Africa conference takes place in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (February)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (February)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (February)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (January)

Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Global

· A total lunar eclipse will be visible across Asia, Australia, the Pacific Islands and the Americas.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump set to host German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the White House.

· Texas holds primaries elections. Voters will choose nominees for Senate midterm elections in November as well as statewide offices including governor, lieutenant-governor, comptroller and attorney-general. Four seats on the Texas Supreme Court are also up for election, along with all 150 seats in the Texas House and 16 seats in the Texas Senate. It follows a Supreme Court ruling last year, allowing a Texas electoral map that favors Republicans.

· There will also be primary elections in Arkansas, California, Florida, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, New Mexico, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont.

· Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is scheduled to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

· The Bloomberg Invest Conference begins and runs through March 4. Apollo CEO Marc Rowan and Minneapolis President & CEO Neel Kashkari are scheduled to speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the ACU Governmental Affairs Conference 2026 organized by America's Credit Unions.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation before the 2026 Bloomberg Invest Conference.

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Net Payrolls (January)

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (February)/ Redbook (February/28)/RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (March)API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/27)

· Colombia Exports (January)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (January)

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· EARNINGS: Target, BestBuy, CrowdStrike

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean President Lee will travel to the Philippines to meet with President Marcos.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the FIN/SUM 2026 Conference.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Michele Bullock speaks at the AFR Business Summit in Sydney.

· Australia Building Permits (January)/ Current Account Q4/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q4/ Private House Approvals (January)

· New Zealand Building Permits (January)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (March/03)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (January)/ Jobs/applications ratio (January)/ Capital Spending Q4/ Monetary Base

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (February)

· Philippines Budget Balance DEC

· Thailand Business Confidence (February)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (February)/ Wholesale Prices (February)

· China Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Pakistan Prime Minister Shariff will travel to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

· UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her Spring Statement, outlining the latest economic and fiscal outlook.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher speaks at the OeNB Women’s Forum in Vienna.

· Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (February)/ Spring Economic Statement

· Romania PPI (January)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (February)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q4

· France Budget Balance (January)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q4

· Spain Unemployment Change (February)/ New Car Sales (February)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (February)/ CPI Flash (February)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (January)

· Italy Inflation Rate (February)/ New Car Registrations (February)

· EARNINGS: Thales

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyadh Bank PMI (February)

· Jordan PPI (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa will host the Africa Energy Indaba Conference in Cape Town, South Africa and goes through March 5.

· The SiGMA Conference, focused on internet gaming, begins in Cape Town, South Africa, and goes through March 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (February)

Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at a Global Risk Institute event in Toronto.

· Brazil PPI (January)/ S&P Global Services PMI (February)/ S&P Global Composite PMI (February)

· The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/27)/ ADP Employment Change (February)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ ISM Services PMI (February)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/27)/ Total Vehicle Sales (February)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q4/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (February)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (February)

· EARNINGS: Broadcom, Wix

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The IMF’s Asia in 2050 conference begins in Bangkok and runs through March 6.

· India celebrates Holi, the festival of colors, love, and spring. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4/ Terms of Trade Q4

· Australia Ai Group Construction/ Manufacturing/ Industry Index (February)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q4/ GDP Chain Price Index Q4/ GDP Consumption Q4/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

· South Korea Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

· Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (February)

· China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (February)/ RatingDog Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI (February)/ Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Taiwan Export Orders (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Ukraine and Russia may have another round of talks under the mediation of the US. Through March 5.

· The EU Parliament’s International Trade Committee will meet to discuss the status of the US-EU Trade Deal.

· European Commission expected to announce details of its troubled “Made in Europe” plan, delayed by disagreements in the scope of the scheme.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion at European Investment Bank Group Forum "A strong Europe in a changing world" in Luxembourg.

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives opening remarks at the IIF Roundtable on Growth and Competitiveness: Enhancing the EU Banking Regulatory Framework in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives introductory remarks at Martin Wolf's lecture "The Crisis of the Liberal World Order" organized in cooperation with the American Academy Berlin in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Muller speaks at the Kite Flight conference in Tallinn, Lithuania.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at a roundtable at an OECD conference in Paris, France.

· Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel speaks on the nation’s new banknote series in Zurich.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Business Confidence (February)/ Real Wage Growth (December)/ Retail Sales (January)/ GDP (January)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (January)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (February)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (January)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ New Car Registrations (February)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (February)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (February)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (March)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

· EARNINGS: Adidas, Continental, Mercedes-Benz, Metro Bank

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (February)

· Jordan Unemployment Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Business Confidence Q1

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Thursday, March 5, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks virtual at the “Navigating What’s Next: Perspective on the Economy & Innovation.”

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee will deliver brief, non-policy-related remarks at the start of the Foreign Policy Association’s financial services dinner in New York.

· Brazil Unemployment Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (February)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (December)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (February)/ Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (February/28)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/27)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (March/05)/ Fed Balance Sheet (March/04)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (February)

· Colombia PPI (February)

· EARNINGS: Costco, Kroger, Burlington, Petrobas

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China begins its annual political meetings known as the Two Sessions, with thousands of delegates (3,000+) gathering in Beijing. The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body, convenes on Wednesday, before the National People's Congress gets underway on Thursday. This year, the Communist Party will finalize its new five-year plan, charting a course for enhancing technological self-sufficiency, coping with trade tensions and boosting consumer confidence.

· Nepal holds its first parliamentary elections since the youth-led protests in September last year ousted the democratically elected government led by Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli and forced him to resign. Major groups contesting the polls include three traditional parties targeted by Gen Z protesters -- Oli's Communist Party of Nepal (UML), the Nepali Communist Party and the Nepali Congress -- and a new force, the Rastriya Swatantra Party, which seeks to channel public anger over corruption, unemployment and digital repression.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/28)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Household Spending (January)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (February)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (February)

· Singapore Retail Sales (January)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· Taiwan Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· China Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (February)

· EARNINGS: Alibaba

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Brussels. They will discuss migration issues, security issues, and the EU Drug Strategy.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers through March 6 in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivers the 2026 Annual Global Risk Lecture, held in honor of Robert Mundell and organized by Johns Hopkins University in Bologna, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a conversation at 2026 IIF European Summit "Securing Growth – Innovating to Compete" in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel discussion at 2026 IIF European Summit "Securing Growth – Innovating to Compete" in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the introductory dinner speech at the Florence School of Banking and Finance Annual Conference 2026 "The EU Savings and Investments Union" in Florence, Italy.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel presents the German central bank’s 2025 annual report in Frankfurt, Germany.

· The European Central Bank publishes their account of their last monetary policy meeting.

· Hungary Retail Sales (January)

· France Industrial Production (January)/ HCOB Construction PMI (February)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (January)

· Spain Industrial Production (January)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (February)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (February)/ ECB Guindos Speech/ Retail Sales (January)/

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (February)/ Bundesbank 2025 Annual Report/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (February)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (February)

· Ireland Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ GNP Q4

· Serbia PPI (February)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/27)

· THURSDAY: Reckitt Benckiser, Rentokil Initial, Taylor Wimpey, ITV

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana Inflation Rate (February)

Friday, March 6, 2026

Global

· The Milano Cortina Winter Paralympic Games opening ceremony, with competition running through March 15.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit Japan through March 7.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivers a keynote address at the SIEPR Economic Summit at Stanford University, Stanford, California.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in “On the Safe-haven Status of the Dollar" panel before the 2026 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum sponsored by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Also speaking will be San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President & CEO Mary Daly.

· Chile Inflation Rate (February)

· Brazil Industrial Production (January)/ Car Production (February)/ New Car Registrations (February)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Average Hourly Earnings (February)/ Participation Rate (February)/ Government Payrolls (February)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (February)/ Used Car Prices (February)/ Business Inventories (December)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (March/06)/ / Consumer Credit Change (January)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (February)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (February)

· Argentina Industrial Production (January)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (February)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (February)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Inflation Rate (February)/ Current Account (January)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Philippines Industrial Production (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (February)/ Foreign Direct Investment (February)/ Industrial Production (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)/ Retail Sales (February)/ Tourist Arrivals (February)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (February)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· India Bank Loan Growth (February/20)/ Deposit Growth (February/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/27)

· Australia RBA Hauser Speech

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (February)

· China Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet in Brussels. Topics for discussion include the fight against Russian impunity, the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights, and the fight against organized crime.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a lecture to Renzo Piano students at the Politecnico di Milano in Milan, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a presentation at the European Banking Federation (EBF) Executive Committee meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business' US Monetary Policy Forum in New York.

· Germany Factory Orders (January)/ New Car Registrations (February)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (February)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (February)

· Hungary Industrial Production (January)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (January)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Employment Change Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Schnabel Speech

· Greece GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)/ Vehicle Sales (February)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (February)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· EARNINGS: Lufthansa, Royal London Group

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Ghana.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Angola Inflation Rate (February)

Saturday, March 7, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump hosts Latin American leaders in Miami, Florida. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa are expected to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Colombia Parliamentary Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva visits Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 8, 2026

Global

· Daylight Saving Time begins in the United States with clocks going forward one hour in each state except Hawaii and Arizona, which do not observe daylight saving time.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombia holds legislative elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference/ National People’s Congress

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Commonwealth Foreign Ministers Meeting will be held in London.

· Switzerland holds a nationwide referendum. Voters will be asked on whether to cap the annual license fee for the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation at 200 francs while exempting other companies from the levy, whether to introduce individual taxation requiring married couples to file separate tax returns, whether to create a federal climate fund, and whether to protect cash in the constitution by guaranteeing that coins and banknotes remain in circulation.

· Germany will hold state elections in Baden-Wurttemberg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/27/26 Francis Kelly 2/27/26

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariff Blow-Up, U.S.-Iran Tensions Spike, German Germany’s Merz Visits Beijing, Mexico Military Moves on Cartels, and Markets Await Nvidia’s Earnings and Central Bank Speeches

February 22 - March 1, 2026

This is going to be one very busy week geopolitically and geoeconomically. Perhaps truly historic when all is said and done, as tensions in Iran, Mexico, and global markets are all at a new peak.

First, at the time of this writing, the Mexican Army, in an unprecedented action, has moved against the country's largest and most dangerous drug cartel, Jalisco New Generation (CJNG), killing its leader, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes – otherwise known as “El Mencho “– on the outskirts of Puerto Vallarta.

This has resulted in a large-scale ongoing battle between heavily armed CJNG gunmen and the Mexican Army in and around the city of Puerto Vallarta, including a reported attack by gunmen on the international airport, leading to the airport's closure. Aside from the massive significance of the Mexican government's decision to go after the biggest and most dangerous cartel, perhaps the most interesting news coming out of the take-down of El Mencho is that a U.S. military task force is openly assisting the Mexican Army.

Our view is this is all part of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum'sefforts not just to contain an increasingly political threat from cartels but also to show President Trump Mexico is truly committed to not only crack down on illegal immigration but dalso on rug trafficking – the two issues which drove President Trump to slap tariffs on Mexico last year and imperil the renewal of the USMCA trade agreement. We are likely to see other large-scale attacks on other drug kingpins, which are likely to expand the violence elsewhere in Mexico.

Meanwhile, following President Trump's loss at the Supreme Court over the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs, the President announced a new set of tariffs to replace what was deemed illegal. But the reality is, Trump's tariff efforts have suffered a major blow, and anything he does now will have a limited time span, as written into law – Trump intends to use Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, set at a 15% rate, as the main new tariff. But under that law, it can only be held in place for 150 days. He then intends to use Section 301 under U.S trade law after Section 122 expires. But in both instances, new lawsuits are expected to be brought by businesses, especially since the US Justice Department, in defense of the President's use of IEEPA, argued that using Section 122 would not be legal.

The bottom line is that tariffs are not going away. Still, President Trump has a limited time to use them in the remainder of his presidency, and Republicans in Congress are increasingly getting uneasy about their use and even now opposing Trump, as we saw in a vote in the House of Representatives two weeks ago. And two new polls suggest that 64% of Americans oppose the President's handling of tariffs on imported goods.

We will hear more from the President on Tuesday night when he gives the annual State of the Union Address before Congress.

As all this happens, tensions in the Persian Gulf have ramped up considerably in the last week as President Trump has now given Iran “15 days" to strike a deal with the U.S. or risk being attacked by the largest U.S. Naval force that has been amassed in the region since the first Gulf War. Iran is saying they will be meeting with President Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, on Friday, but the White House is saying that is contingent on Iranian leaders providing a detailed proposal to the U.S. on how they intend to dismantle and limit their nuclear program and nuclear weapons project. Trump has also indicated he could order an attack on Iran at any time.

In Asia this week, the big event is German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's visit to Beijing for bilateral talks with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. Merz had strong words for China last week at the Munich Security Conference, but also put forth a conciliatory hand, saying he hopes to “find the right balance of cooperation" with China on this trip. Germany has long seen China as a major market, especially for its automotive sector, which sold 35 million cars in China in 2025. But those numbers have already significantly slowed down in the first two months of 2026, along with other German exports to China.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are nervous enough with all the geopolitical tensions, but are also nervous ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement on Wednesday. The report is seen as a clear indication of how demand for high-tech AI chips has been and will continue to be, as markets grow increasingly nervous about corporate AI investments.

A host of other major corporate earnings are being reported this week in the US, Europe, and Asia. In the US, we will see the delayed January PPI release on Friday. But first, we will be getting the Conference Board's consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the President's State of the Union on Tuesday, and numerous Federal Reserve Board and regional Fed President speeches this week.

In Europe, the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, speaking Monday at the NABE (National Association of Business Economics) Economic Conference in Washington, D.C., is expected to come out strongly against President Trump's newset of tariffs and to offer a sense of the impact they will have on EU-US trade.

Also coming out of Europe this week, Germany releases its important Ifo Survey on Monday. But the big day this week is Friday, when Germany, France, and Spain release their CPI prints and consumer confidence numbers. The UK will also release its consumer confidence figures on Friday.

Finally, turning to Asia, Japan releases industrial production figures and the Tokyo CPI (February) on Friday. Australia releases its inflation print (CPI) on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 22, 2026

Global

· Italy will host the closing ceremony for the 2026 Winter Olympic Games at the Verona Olympic Arena.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will make a state visit to South Korea through February 24.

· Today is Independence Day in St. Lucia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· North Korea's quinquennial Party Congress could persist through February 27.

· Laos holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Algeria celebrates the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, celebrating events in 2019 when the entire country rose in unison to hold nationwide protests leading to a change in the government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 23, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US officials will hold bilateral security discussions with their Mauritian counterparts on the continued use of the joint US-UK base on Diego Garcia. This three-day meeting follows an agreement finalized last year between the UK and Mauritius, which sees the UK hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

· Today is the deadline set by Warner Bros Discovery for Paramount to make a “best and final” offer to top Netflix’s agreed $83 billion takeover bid or step aside. However Paramount’s $108 billion offer last week cleared a key US antitrust hurdle.

· Today is Republic Day in Guyana, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the 2026 National Association for Business Economists (NABE) Annual Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Economic Activity (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)/ Factory Orders (December)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January)

· EARNINGS: Dominion, Domino’s Pizza, Hims & Hers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 45th U.S. – Thai "Cobra Gold" military training hosted by Thailand begins at the Thai navy base in the eastern coastal city of Chonburi. The multinational military exercises will take place through March 6, with more than 8,000 military personnel from 30 countries joining the full-scale training drill.

· The International Criminal Court starts the confirmation of charges hearing against Duterte. The former Filipino leader, currently facing three counts of crimes against humanity, is currently being held in a detention center at The Hague in the Netherlands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Retail Sales Q4/ Credit Card Spending (January)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (January)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (February)

· Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Union lawmakers will hold an emergency meeting Monday to reassess the bloc’s trade deal with the US following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down some of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.

· A new Dutch cabinet will be sworn in, with Rob Jetten set to become prime minister.

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East (Gaza and West Bank as well as the growing tensions between the US and Iran).

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

· Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an acceptance speech for the 2026 Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award and remarks at NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington DC

· Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Alan Taylor takes part in a Deutsche Bank-hosted fireside chat in London.

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (February)/ Ifo Current Conditions (February)/ Ifo Expectations (February)

· Italy Inflation Rate (January)

· Poland Retail Sales (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (February)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (January)

· EARNINGS: LendLease, MONY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump gives the annual State of the Union speech before the U.S. Congress.

· Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to present her controversial electoral reform plan to parliament.

· The 50th Regular Meeting of the Conference of the Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) will be held in St. Kitts and Nevis through February 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech focused on technology at the2026 Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference: Shaping the Future of Finance and Payments, Boston, Massachusetts. Also speaking at the Conference will be Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan Collins and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President & CEO Tom Barkin.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on artificial intelligence and productivity at the 2026 National Association for Business Economists (NABE) Annual Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee will speak at the 42nd Annual Economic Policy Conference of the National Association for Business Economics in Washington, D.C.

· Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook.

· Brazil Current Account (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)

· Chile PPI (January)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (February)

· USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (February/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (December)/ House Price Index (December)/ CB Consumer Confidence (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (February)/ Money Supply (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/20)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)

· Argentina Economic Activity (December)

· Peru Current Account Q4

· EARNINGS: American Tower REIT, Axon Enterprise, GoDaddy, Home Depot, HP, Keurig Dr. Pepper, ScotiaBank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will reconvene, with top priorities including discussion of a special defense budget and the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal.

· The UN-sponsored Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development 2026 will be held from February 24-27 in Bangkok, Thailand.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)/ PPI (January)

· China FDI (YTD) (January)

· EARNINGS: Singapore Airlines, UOB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to Beijing for meetings with President Jinping Xi. The leaders will discuss bilateral trade and security issues.

· Today is the 4th anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels. European Affairs Ministers will discuss preparations for the upcoming European Council meeting on March 19-20 as well as the European Democracy Shield.

· Today is Independence Day in Estonia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on the opening panel discussion at the International Outreach Programme of Alte Oper Frankfurt in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the KPMG RiskTech Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates on a panel discussion at the Nordea-ING event on "Banks and EU competitiveness: the untapped potential of the single market" in Brussels, Belgium.

· BOE Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence on the latest Monetary Policy Report to Parliament’s Treasury Committee, joined by Chief Economist Huw Pill, and rate-setters Megan Greene and Alan Taylor.

· Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson discusses the economic situation in Sundsvall, Sweden.

· European Union New Car Registrations (January)

· France Business Confidence (February)/ Business Climate Indicator (February)

· Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q4

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (February)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: City of London Investment Group, Standard Chartered, Telefonica, Unite

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1718 Committee (North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks in a moderated panel at the Northern Virginia Chamber.

· Brazil Bank Lending (January)

· President and CEO of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Alberto Musalem speaks at the Missouri Athletic Club in St. Louis, Missouri.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/20)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/20)/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/25)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (January)

· Colombia Business Confidence (January)

· Mexico Current Account Q4

· Argentina Retail Sales (December)

· Paraguay PPI (January)

· EARNINGS: Zoom, Urban Outfitters, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Lowe’s, Agilent Technologies, Bank of Montreal, National Bank of Canada

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea, the country with the world's lowest fertility rate, is due to publish birth rate data for 2025 amid concerns about how an aging society will weigh on the economy.

· Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the city’s 2026–27 budget.

· The Asia Energy Security Seminar, hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to promote Japan’s energy security activities. This year’s event will focus on the role of diplomacy with a particular emphasis on oil and natural gas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Japanese government will present to the Japanese Diet two new nominees to the Central Bank of Japan’s board.

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock speaks in a fireside chat at the University of Melbourne.

· South Korea Business Confidence (February)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Australia Construction Work Done Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (January)/ CPI (January)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (January)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Index (December)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)

· India M3 Money Supply (February/14)

· EARNINGS: Baidu

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers today and tomorrow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic speaks in the EU Parliament in Brussels ahead of his appointment as ECB vice president.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the PwC Credit Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· France Consumer Confidence (February)

· Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (January)

· Spain PPI (January)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (February)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Russia Industrial Production (January)

· EARNINGS: HSBC, Aston Martin Lagonda, Diageo, E.On, Fortescue, Fresenius, Heathrow, Manchester United, St. James Place, Shaftsbury Capital

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

· The International Monetary Fund's executive board will meet to discuss the reviews of Egypt's Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility programs to potentially unlock up to $2.8 billion.

· Today is National Day in Kuwait, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa South African 2026 National Budget Speech

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to appear before the House Oversight Committee as part of an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, followed by the testimony of former President Bill Clinton the next day.

· Argentina's main labor union, the General Confederation of Labor, will hold a 24-hour general strike to oppose labor reforms.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman testifies before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (January)

· Canada Current Account Q4/ Average Weekly Earnings (December)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/21)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (February/14)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (February)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/26)

· EARNINGS: Dell, Intuit, JM Smucker, Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, TD Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajimie Takata gives a speech to local leaders in Kyoto, Japan.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/21)/ BoJ Takada Speech/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (February)

· Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q4/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q4/ Private Capital Expenditure Q4

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia PPI (January)

· Singapore Industrial Production (January)

· Taiwan Current Account Q4/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

· EARNINGS: Maybank HKEX, Quantas Airways

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· A special election will be held in Gorton and Denton, suburbs of Manchester, UK. The outcome could spell the end of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s rule in office.

· The EU Competitiveness Council (Research) will meet in Brussels. The Council will discuss research and funding for coal and steel, and the Horizon Europe Package.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at the Bank of England/UK Women in Economics Network networking event in London.

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/20)

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

· Slovakia Business Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

· Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Loans to Households & Companies (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)/ Economic Sentiment (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Sentiment (February)/ Selling Price Expectations (February)/ Services Sentiment (February)

· Italy Business Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (January)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (January)

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

· Greece Total Credit (January)

· Spain Business Confidence (February)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (February)

· EARNINGS: Allianz, Clariant, Man Group, Rolls-Royce, Tate & Lyle, WPP, Deutsche Telekom, Drax, London Stock Exchange, Puma

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (January)

Friday, February 27, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the Dominican Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (February)/ Net Payrolls (January)

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q4/ GDP Implicit Price Q4/ Budget Balance (December)

· Chile Copper Production (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate JA

· Mexico Balance of Trade (January)/ Fiscal Balance (January)

· USA PPI (January)/ Chicago PMI (February)/ Construction Spending (November & December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/27)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Cement Production (January)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (January)

· EARNINGS: AES

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Indian Air Force is set to hold a large-scale exercise at Pokhran in the northwestern state of Rajasthan using fighter, transport, and helicopter platforms. Among the assets to be demonstrated are indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft, French-made Rafale fighters, and Russian-developed Sukhoi Su-30 MKI jets. The exercise will also showcase glimpses of the IAF's role in rescue and evacuation from conflict zones.

· Today is Peace Memorial Day in Taiwan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February)

· Japan Tokyo CPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Construction Orders (January)

· Australia Housing Credit (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ PPI (January)

· Singapore Bank Lending (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)/ PPI (January)

· Thailand Industrial Production (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Private Consumption (January)/ Private Investment (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (January)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

· India GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Government Budget Value (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (February/06)/ Deposit Growth (February/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/20)

· EARNINGS: New World Development, RHB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the Elgin Advisory and Society for Professional Economists “UK & US economics” webinar.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (February)/ Car Production (January)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

· Germany Import Prices (January)/ Unemployed Persons (February)/ Unemployment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (February)/ Bavaria CPI (February)/ Brandenburg CPI (February)/ Hesse CPI (February)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (February)/ Saxony CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Economic Confidence Index (February)/ Participation Rate (January)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ KOF Leading Indicators (February)

· France Inflation Rate (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q4/ PPI (January)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (January)/ Jobseekers Total (January)

· Spain Inflation Rate (February)/ Current Account (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

· Italy Industrial Sales (December)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)

· Greece Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (January)

· Ireland Retail Sales (January)

· Serbia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

· EARNINGS: Swiss Re, AES, Hays, Rathbones, IAG, Melrose Industries

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (February)

· Kenya

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Global

· Six of our solar system’s planets — Jupiter, Uranus, Saturn, Neptune, Venus, and Mercury — will be visible in the night sky of the northern hemisphere in a “parade” after sunset.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

· Today is the deadline for China to meet its pledge to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Global

· The U.S. takes the rotating chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

· Today is the first day of the meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to India for meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

· Beijing is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed from about 85 per cent to 15 per cent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/20/26 Francis Kelly 2/20/26

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

SEC Chair Atkins Testifies Before Congress on The SEC’s Agenda, Fed Vice Chair Bowman Speaks on the Regulatory Outlook, And Treasury Secretary Bessent Gives a Peek into The Trump Regulatory Reform Plan

February 9 - 13, 2026

It is a busy week for financial regulatory strategy. First, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee regarding his strategic plans for the SEC.

While this is happening, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be giving a closely watched virtual speech at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference. Both Atkins's and Bowman’s remarks follow Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s testimony last week before Congress on the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC).

Bessent said the Administration will focus on regulations that hinder economic growth. “FSOC should … work with its members to support efforts to avoid or pare back existing regulation that stifles pro-growth lending, capital formation, and innovation. And the best way to achieve these goals is by centering economic growth and economic security at the heart of FSOC’s agenda,” he said.

Bessent said he supports higher deposit insurance levels and that we should expect new nonbank guidance later this year that updates Biden-era standards for nonbank financial institutions. Overall, Bessent made it very clear that he and the White House intend to direct deregulatory changes rather than maintain regulatory independence and hope for the best.

Also, last week, CFTC Chair Michael Selig announced that the agency would support prediction markets and craft new rules for them. “Consistent with my commitment to fostering responsible innovation in crypto asset markets, I will continue to support the responsible development of event contract markets,” said Selig.

For banks, the big event was the Federal Reserve's finalization of the 2026 stress test exams. You can find them HERE. Thirty-two large banks will be tested against a severe global recession scenario, including a nearly 5.5 percentage-point rise in unemployment, a roughly 30% decline in home prices, and stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Thursday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Committee.”

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, February 10, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Building a Solid Foundation: Restoring Trust and Transparency in Public Housing Agencies.”

· Wednesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Committee.” You can read the Committee’s background memorandum on the hearing HERE.

· Wednesday, February 11, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance will hold a hearing entitled “Homeownership and the Role of the Secondary Mortgage Market.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Meetings & Events

The White House

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, February 9, 1:30 p.m. PST – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on digital assets at the Global Interdependence Center Summit: The Dollar and Continued U.S. Exceptionalism, La Jolla, California.

· Monday, February 9: 23 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation on the economy at the Boston University Questrom School of Business Events and Conference Center, Boston, Massachusetts. Later (5:00 p.m.), he will participate in a conversation at the WBUR Podcast: Is Business Broken, in Boston.

· Tuesday, February 9, 12:00 p.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Banking and the Economic Outlook" before the 2026 Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit

· Tuesday, February 10, 1:00 p.m. – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2026 Asset Management Derivatives Forum hosted by SIFMA and FIA.

· Wednesday, February 11, 10:10 a.m. – Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook before the Economic Forum of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

· Wednesday, February 11, 10:15 a.m. - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on supervision and regulation at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference (virtual)

· Wednesday, February 11, 4:00 p.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in Leadership Dialogue, “Exploring Leadership, Economic Policy, and Career Pathways in Public Service" Leadership Dialogue hosted by the Ohio State University John Glenn College of Public Affairs.

· Thursday, February 12, 7:05 p.m. CT – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Global Perspectives Event, Dallas, Texas.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Nothing significant to report.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the Senate Banking Committee hearing entitled “Oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”

· Thursday, February 12, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – the FCA Board meets to consider a new Human Capital Overview Report and the final rule dealing with business planning.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Wednesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – the FCSIC Board meets. In open/new business session they will consider: The Review and Setting of Insurance Premium Accrual Rates, Payment from Allocated Insurance Reserves Accounts, A Policy Statement re: Allowance for Insurance Fund Loss, A Policy Statement re: Alternative Means of Dispute Resolution, and a Policy Statement re: Receivership and Conservatorship Counsel. In Closed Session, they will review the Annual Report of Contracts and the Annual Report on Whistleblower Activity.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Sunday – Wednesday, February 8 – 11: SIFMA and the FIA hold their Asset Management Derivatives Forum in Austin, Texas.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, February 10, 3:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion on "The Next Chapter of Community Development Finance and Place-Based Investment."

· Thursday, February 12, 1:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution hosts a discussion on “The Future of the Digital Economy.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 2/8/26 Francis Kelly 2/8/26

The Global Week Ahead

NATO Defense Ministers Meet to Discuss Ukraine, The Munich Security Conference Brings Focus to the Future of NATO, the Lunar New Year Begins, and a Week of Big Earnings

February 8 - 15, 2026

The geopolitical focus this week will be on Europe, with a focus on Ukraine and NATO. The big event of the week is the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC), which begins on Friday. There is always a lot of news from the MSC, and we expect this year to be no different, as a major theme of the conference is the future of NATO and Europe’s drive to build a stronger, more integrated defense sector.

However, the MSC comes on the heels of an important meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Thursday to discuss further military support for Ukraine. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he plans to skip the meeting. Later in the day, EU defense ministers will meet amongst themselves and with Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

We would also note that, while it has yet to be formally announced, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has told reporters he expects the first trilateral peace talks among Ukraine, Russia, and the USto take place sometime this week, most likely in Miami.

The biggest event of the week took place today (Sunday) in Japan, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide win in snap elections. Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gained a historic supermajority in the Japanese Diet (Parliament), winning 316 of the 465 seats. The results are expected to have major impacts on Japan’s defense strategy and tax cuts, and to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to hold rates.

In the US, Washington’s growing focus on Latin America continues as summit on Friday to discuss common security concerns.

This comes as President Trump hosts a Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, markets are watching for the delayed January jobs data, released on Wednesday, and the delayed January CPI report, released on Friday.

In Europe this week, it is a relatively light data week. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give several speeches, including two at the Munich Security Conference. In the UK, Q4 GDP is released on Thursday.

Moving to Asia, Japan’s Economy Watchers survey is out on Monday, and PPI on Thursday. China’s inflation reports are out on Wednesday.

Finally, this is a heavy earnings week in the US and Europe. Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

· In Bahrain, the UN-sponsored World Entrepreneurs Investment Forum 2026 will be held through February 10th.

· The 2026 Winter Olympics continue through February 22nd in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA may launch three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida. This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

· Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds lower house elections. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position. More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

· Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 9, 2026

Global

· The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on digital assets at the Global Interdependence Center Summit: The Dollar and Continued U.S. Exceptionalism, La Jolla, California.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation on the economy at the Boston University Questrom School of Business Events and Conference Center, Boston, Massachusetts. Later, eh will participate in a conversation at the WBUR Podcast: Is Business Broken, in Boston.

· Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation with Pro Farmer.

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai is due to be sentenced, following his conviction in a controversial trial that drew global attention. Lai was found guilty of colluding with foreign forces under the National Security Law that China imposed on Hong Kong in 2020, and of publishing seditious materials. He could receive a life sentence.

· The Philippines' House of Representatives is expected to vote on whether to revive impeachment complaints against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. While a lower house committee previously dismissed the bid for "lack of substance," a one-third vote from the chamber could still overturn that decision.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (January)

· Australia Household Spending (December)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Motorbike Sales (January)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· EARNINGS: DBS

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Great Britain’s Prince William is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in debate on the state of the EU economy and ECB activities in Strasbourg, France.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at Maynooth University in Maynooth, Ireland.

· European Central. Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus speaks in Vilnius, Lithuania.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel joins panel discussion on inflation in Karlsruhe, Germany.

· Romania Balance of Trade (December)

· Slovakia Construction Output (December)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

· Hungary Budget Balance (January)

· EARNINGS: UniCredit

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

South Africa will host the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Global

· International Energy Week runs through February 12 in London, assembling global leaders to tackle key issues in the energy transition.

· The Oslo Energy Forum is being held in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Vice President JD Vance will visit Armenia.

· President Trump hosts the Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit in Cleveland, Ohio.

· Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at the Asset Management Derivatives Forum.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Export Prices (December)/ Import Prices (December)/ Redbook (February/07)/ Business Inventories (November)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Fed Logan Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/06)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (January)/ Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

· Mexico Auto Exports & Production (January)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

· El Salvador PPI (January)

· EARNINGS: Ford, Mattel, Principal Financial, CVS Health, Duke Energy, AstraZeneca, AIG, Coca-Cola, Spotify

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Cryptocurrency data company CoinDesk holds its Consensus HK Conference through Thursday in Hong Kong, bringing industry luminaries to a city striving to develop as a hub for the sector. But the shaky performance of Bitcoin and other digital currencies so far this year will be looming over the festivities.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

· India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

· EARNINGS: Mazda, Honda

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

· Ireland Construction PMI (January)

· France Unemployment Rate Q4

· Turkey Industrial Production (December)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (December)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

· Greece Industrial Production (December)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

· EARNINGS: Barclays, BP,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

· Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (January)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Global

· The UN’s the 6th Global Conference on the Elimination of Child Labour will be held from through February 13th in Marrakech, Morocco.

· OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Vice President JD Vance is expected to visit Azerbaijan.

· The US will host the inaugural Western Hemisphere Chiefs of Defense Conference in Washington.

· Barbados holds elections for their House of Assembly.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on supervision and regulation at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference (virtual)

· Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks at the Economic Forum of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

· Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks on leadership at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio.

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Brazil PPI (December)

· Mexico Industrial Production (December)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February)/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)

· Bank on Canada releases summary of deliberations/Canada Building Permits (December)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

· Peru Balance of Trade (December)

· EARNINGS: Cisco, Hilton Worldwide, McDonald’s, Tenet Healthcare, T-Mobile US, Kraft Heinz

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China is expected to conduct a test launch of its new Long March-10A rocket, slated for use on lunar missions.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (January)

· Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4/ RBA Hauser Speech

· China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

· Malaysia Construction Output Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

· India M3 Money Supply (January/23)

· EARNINGS: Grab, Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and how to offer greater support. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he intends to skip the meeting.

· Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey. The meeting will focus on managing bilateral relations and delimiting the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as well as discussions of the continental shelf and mining.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Eugen Böhm von Bawerk Lecture at the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, Austria.

· European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives closing remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England’s Executive Director of International James Talbot will give a speech at the London School of Economics on “Climate Change, the Economy, and the Financial System: Perspectives from the Bank of England.)

· Turkey Retail Sales (December)

· Italian Industrial Production (December)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Russia Balance of Trade (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)

· EARNINGS: Commerzbank, Dassault Systemes, TotalEnergies,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Egypt will host the AI Everything Middle East and Africa Summit in Cairo through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The 39th Ordinary Summit of the African Union will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia through February 15th. Heads of state will be gathered to discuss security and economic issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December and January)

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1988 Committee. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation with Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Global Perspectives Event, Dallas, Texas.

· Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/31)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/12)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/11)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Airbnb, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Applied Materials, Wynn Resorts

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bangladesh heads to the polls, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party tipped to perform well, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as a significant force as voters eye a change from politics as usual. The party led by the students who drove the 2024 protests has failed to build momentum, however, and has become part of a Jamaat-led alliance.

· Singapore Finance Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the 2026 budget statement in Parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)/ RBA Hunter Speech

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (November)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

· India Inflation Rate (January)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

· EARNINGS: Softbank, Nissan

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to sip the meeting.

· There will be a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) in Brussels. The Council will discuss EU military support to Ukraine, with a focus on cooperation in defense innovation, after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, who will be present in person.

· There will be an informal meeting at an EU leaders retreat in Alden Biesen castle in Belgium. The focus on the retreat, according to an invitation letter sent by EU President António Costa, is competitiveness and “strengthening the single market in the new geoeconomic context.”

· There will be an informal meeting of the EU Employment and Social Affairs Council through February 13th in Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a lecture at a conference organized by the Commissione Europa of the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in Rome, Italy.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a speech at The World Ahead 2026 Sofia Gala Dinner in Sofia, Bulgaria.

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on European monetary policy at Euro50 Group

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

· Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Greece Inflation Rate (January)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Russia Current Account Q4

· Germany Current Account (December)

· EARNINGS: Hermès, L’Oreal, Mercedes-Benz, Schroders, Siemens, Swisscom, Thyssenkrupp, Unilever, British American Tobacco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 13, 2026

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

· The G7 Foreign Ministers are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil’s Rio Carnival opening ceremony is held.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (December)

· USA Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/13)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech at the Kanagawa Keizai Doyukai.

· South Korea Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

· China House Price Index (January)

· Malaysia Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

· Indonesia Car Sales (January)

· EARNINGS: Kirin

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Munich Security Conference begins in Munich, Germany and runs through February 15th.

· The UK Parliament goes into recess until February 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona, Spain. Later, he gives remarks and participates in a Q&A at the Círculo de Confianza by Foment de Trebal in Barcelona, Spain.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks in a fireside chat at a Santander event in London.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

· Romania Industrial Production (December)

· Turkey Current Account (December)

· Hungary Construction Output (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Spain Inflation Rate (January)

· Poland Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ Employment Change Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

· Serbia Building Permits (December)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (September, October, November, and December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 14, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Current Account Prel Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion on trade dependencies and global supply chains during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 15, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Lunar New Year begins. China begins a weeklong holiday to celebrate the Year of the Horse. Financial markets are closed in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion on European Competitiveness during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

· Israel Inflation Rate (January)

· Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

Francis Kelly 2/2/26 Francis Kelly 2/2/26

The Global Week Ahead

The US and Iran Begin Talks to Avert a US Military Strike, The US Hosts a Critical Mineral Summit, Japan Holds Elections, and the ECB and Bank of England Meet on Interest Rates

February 1 - 8, 2026

Washington remains frozen and covered in “snowcrete,” but there is a lot going on here in terms of geopolitical activity. First, it appears the US will be meeting with Iranian officials face-to-face this coming Friday in Istanbul to attempt to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program. Up until this point, there have been no official face-to-face meetings between the two countries, but Iran, seeing the approach of a large US Naval force and President Trump’s demands for talks, relented. The impact on oil/gas markets could be significant if an agreement is ultimately reached.

Also this week, on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hosting a critical minerals ministerial meeting where a dozen or more foreign ministers will gather to hammer out the details of a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework. The proposed Framework would ensure all signatories have access to critical minerals, facilitating greater and freer trade. Among the confirmed attendees are India, South Korea, Australia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea, and Kenya.

Finally, we would note that President Trump is scheduled to meet with Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Wednesday. The aim of the meeting is to de-escalate tensions after Trump snatched Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and began to bicker with Petro over drug interdiction policy. A positive outcome of the meeting would further solidify Trump's policy of greater US engagement and influence in the Hemisphere.

Turning to Asia, on Sunday, Japan heads to the voting booth after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called snap elections. Polls suggest Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could score a landslide victory (estimates put it at more than 233 of the total 465 seats), giving her a strong hand to push forward with her “proactive” fiscal policy focused on bigger spending and tax cuts.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big events are in Frankfurt and London, respectively, as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet to consider further interest rate cuts. Both are expected to hold off on any further rate cuts.

In the US, the major economic releases this week include the jobs report on Friday. This follows the JOLTS report (Tuesday) and the ADP report (Wednesday). Also, out this week are the ISM indices on Monday (manufacturing) and Wednesday (services), and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.

In Europe, the January CPIs for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain are out this week. Germany releases factor order and industrial production figures this week. And we will also see retail sales and trade figures for most major Eurozone countries.

In Asia this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide on interest rates. China releases January PMIs on Saturday, and in Japan, the Bank of Japan releases its summary of recent interest rate deliberations.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Global

· The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held virtually.

· The UK assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

· The Arctic Frontiers Conference is held in Tromso, Norway.

· The International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit begins in Porto, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Costa Rica holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents the country's annual budget for the fiscal year starting in April, with the focus likely to be on fields such as infrastructure development, green energy and steps to boost export competitiveness amid U.S. President Donald Trump's punishing 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· India Union Budget 2026

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The second round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is scheduled to begin in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 2, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy before the Atlanta Rotary Club.

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (January)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (January)/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Peru Inflation Rate (January)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

· EARNINGS: Palantir, Disney, Tysons Food

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The travel period for China's Spring Festival celebrations will commence and last through March 13th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)/ Commodity Prices (January)

· Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (January)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Singapore Business Confidence Q4/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (January)

· EARNINGS: Central Japan Railway, East Japan Railway

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Oslo Security Conference is held through February 3rd in Oslo, Norway.

· French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu will face his third and last set of no-confidence votes in the National Assembly over his decision to pass the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Internal Market and Industry), through February 3rd in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech entitled “Talking ‘bout Next Generation” at the City & Financial Payments Regulation and Innovation Summit 2026 in London.

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Germany Retail Sales (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (December)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ New Car Sales (January)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ BoE Jackson Speech/ Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q4

· EARNINGS: Julius Baer

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Saudi Capital Markets Forum begins in New York and runs through February 3rd. The country formally is opening its markets to foreign investors today.

· The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is scheduled to open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Data Centres Association hosts a conference on cloud and data centers in Tunis through February 3rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Global

· The World Governments Summit begins in Dubai and runs through February 5th. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is among the speakers.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.

· Netflix Inc. Co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos will testify before the US Senate’s antitrust subcommittee on Tuesday, taking the stage to assuage politicians’ concern about his company’s $82.7 billion deal for Warner Bros. and HBO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the SC First Steps “Early Advantage: Foundations for South Carolina's Economic Vitality" event.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman takes part in a moderated conversation at the WSJ Invest Live event in New York

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Industrial Production (December)

· USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)/Redbook (January/31)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ JOLTs Job Quits (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/30)

· Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

· Colombia Exports (December)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

· EARNINGS: Amgen, Emerson Electric, Clorox, PepsiCo, Paypal, Pfizer, Prudential Financial, Willis Towers Watson, LATAM Airlines, Merck

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Singapore Airshow begins and runs through Sunday. More than 1000 aerospace and defense companies from 50 countries will participate.

· The Chinese Communist Party and Taiwan's Kuomintang party will recommence party-to-party talks, suspended in 2016, in China through February 4th.

· The Indonesia Economic Summit, hosted by the Indonesia Business Council, holds a two-day annual event in Jakarta, inviting global business leaders and policymakers to discuss industry challenges for the development of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/03)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (January)

· Japan Monetary Base

· The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Interest Rates and holds Press Conference/Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (December)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

· India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

· EARNINGS: Nintendo, West Japan Railway, Mitsubishi Electronic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal video conference among EU Housing Ministers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at the Afore Consulting 10th Annual FinTech and Regulation Conference in Brussels, Belgium.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

· Romania PPI (December)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

· France Inflation Rate (January)/ Budget Balance (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

· Spain Unemployment Change (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

· Italy New Car Registrations (January)

· EARNINGS: Publicis Groupe

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

· Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Mozambican Heroes Day, a national holiday.

· Solar energy executives gather in Nairobi for the Intersolar Africa business summit.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)

· Ghana Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts a Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington DC with multiple foreign ministers attending. The State Department is circulating a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework for attending countries to sign.

· Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the House Financial Services Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

· The New START Treaty expires. The US and Russia treaty helped restrict the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

· “The Muppet Show” returns being shown on ABC and Disney+. American culture is saved.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/30)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/30)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity (January)/ ISM Services Employment (January)/ ISM Services New Orders (January)/ ISM Services Prices (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/30)/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

· Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· EARNINGS: Alphabet, Boston Scientific, Eli Lilly, Fox Corp, Johnson Controls McKesson, Stanley Black & Decker, Qualcomm, T Rowe Price, Uber

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones holds a fireside chat at the Investment Magazine 2026 Chair Forum.

· New Zealand Employment Change Q4/ Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (January)/ Ai Group Construction Index (January)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ RBA Jones Speech

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

· Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (January)

· China RatingDog Composite & Services PMI (January)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/23)

· EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Panasonic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in an informal dinner and exchange of views with Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security as well as Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency, in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)/ PPI (December)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

· Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (January)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

· EARNINGS: UBS, Credit Agricole, Handelsbanken, Santander, Watches of Switzerland

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· There is nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Angola Liberation Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Global

· Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify before the Senate Banking Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on monetary policy and navigating the economic environment after graduation at event hosted by the Clark Atlanta University School of Business.

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Toronto.

· Mexican Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/31)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/05)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/04)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (January)

· Colombia PPI (January)

· Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

· EARNINGS: Amazon, Allstate, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardinal Health, Cigna, Compass, ConocoPhillips, KKR, Hershey, MetLife, News Corp, Thomson Reuter

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Malaysia Economic Forum begins in Kuala Lumpur. The forum will feature Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Siri founder and former Chief Technology Officer Tom Gruber, and senior figures from the private sector, including banking and capital market leaders.

· The ASEAN Treasury Forum takes place in Manila, Philippines through February 6th.

· The 17th East Asia Conference on Competition Law and Policy, a two-day event hosted by Asian Development Bank Institute, begins in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/31)

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

· Indonesia Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

· Singapore Retail Sales (December)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

· EARNINGS: Nippon Steel, Suzuki, Motor, Sony

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be in informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through February 6th in Brussels.

· Today is Liberation Day San Marino.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference

· Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

· Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

· Romania Retail Sales (December)

· Hungary Retail Sales (December)

· France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (January)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

· EARNINGS: BNP, Vodafone, BBVA, Maersk, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Burundi Unity Day, a national holiday.

· The RiseUp Summit, focused on startups, meets at the Grand Egyptian Museum in Cairo

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, February 6, 2026

Global

· The 2026 Winter Olympics begin in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy and runs through February 22nd.

· FAO Food Price Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US is tentatively scheduled to hold talks with Iranian officials in Istanbul on Iran’s nuclear program.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook and supply-side inflation dynamics at a conference entitled: Supply-Side Factors and Inflation: What Have We Learned? Being hosted by The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

· Chile Inflation Rate (January)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Ivey PMI s.a (January)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Used Car Prices (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

· Argentina Industrial Production (December)

· Colombia Cement Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Kazuyuki Masu gives a speech before local leaders in Ehime, Japan.

· South Korea Current Account (December)

· Japan Household Spending (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ BoJ Masu Speech/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Property Price Index Q4

· India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (January/23)/ Deposit Growth (January/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Kazakhstan PPI (January)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (January)

· EARNINGS: Toyota

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech on the digital euro at an event organized by MEP Michalis Hadjipantela in Cyprus.

· European Central Bank Governing Council Member ECB Martin Kocher speaks at the Club of Business Journalists in Vienna, Austria.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the National MC Agency Briefing.

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)

· Hungary Industrial Production (December)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)

· Spain Industrial Production (December)

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Greece Balance of Trade (December)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ GDP (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

· EARNINGS: Societe Generale, Skanska

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 7, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NASA may launch a three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida. This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

· Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds lower house elections. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position. More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

· Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 2/2/26 Francis Kelly 2/2/26

The Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

FSOC Presents Its Annual Report to Congress, What Sort of Government Shutdown Will We Get?, Federal and State Regulators Battle Over Real Estate Escrow Accounts

February 2 - 6, 2026

Washington is still buried under frozen snow – known here as “snowcrete” because it is like chiseling concrete to clear it away. A number of schools remain closed (having been closed all last week, too), but the wheels of Congress and regulators continue to turn.

The big event of the week will be Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifying before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee to present the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) 's annual report.

Both hearings look to be pretty wide open in terms of issues to discussed but we suspect a heavy focus of questioning will be on the Trump Administration’s evisceration of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and what the Administration intends to do with it going forward along with reform of the Federal Reserve (now that President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next chair and Bessent has repeatedly said the Fed needs to reformed), and the future bank regulatory framework.

Looking at last week, we noted an unusual fight emerging between federal and state regulators over real estate escrow accounts. The fight comes at a sensitive time, as the cost of buying a new home has emerged as a serious political issue in this year’s midterm elections. The disagreement revolves around the interest paid on escrow accounts used by mortgage holders to pay expenses such as taxes and insurance. More than a dozen states require banks pay interest on escrow accounts.

However, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) recently proposed a rule that would allow nationally chartered banks under its supervision to pay no interest and charge fees to escrow account holders.

Elsewhere, we continue to track legislation introduced by Senators Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) to crack down on credit card swipe fees. Despite President Trump’s endorsement, we are seeing little progress in the Senate for the legislation and little appetite among senators to get in the middle of this long and messy fight.

Finally, Congress is in another shutdown, which they hope to fix either today or Tuesday, when the House votes on a continuing resolution to keep the government funded. A deal was struck last week, but not in time for the House to vote on it. But in our view, this might have become more complicated over the weekend, when Democrats won the traditionally Democratic 18th district in a special election to replace the recently deceased Representative Sylvester Turner (D-TX).

While it was not a surprising outcome, it means Republicans now have a one-seat majority in the House. For House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA), his life has become considerably more difficult because the odds of one Republican defecting to strike some sort of deal over something complete. So, brace for more drama in the House this week – and the rest of the year as this number is going to go back and forth from a one seat to two seat majority numerous times.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, February 3, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing entitled “The Truth Revealed: Hidden Facts Regarding Nazis and Swiss Banks." Testifying will be:

Neil Barofsky, Independent ombudsperson and partner at Jenner & Block LLP, New York, N.Y.
Barbara Levi, Group general counsel for UBS Group AG and member of the Group Executive Board of UBS Group AG, Zurich, Switzerland
Rabbi Abraham Cooper, Associate dean and director of global social action at the Simon Wiesenthal Center, Los Angeles, Calif.
Robert Karofsky, Co-president for Global Wealth Management, president of UBS Americas and member of the Group Executive Board of UBS Group AG, New York, N.Y.

· Tuesday, February 3, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights holds a hearings entitled “Examining the Competitive Impact of the Proposed Netflix-Warner Brothers Transaction.”

· Thursday, February 5, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

House of Representatives

· Wednesday, February 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Service Committee will hold a hearing on the Annual Report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify. You can find the Committee’s Memorandum on the hearing HERE.

· Wednesday, February 4, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets will hold a hearing entitled “A New Day at the SEC: Restoring Accountability, Due Process, and Public Confidence.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency

Meetings & Events

The White House

· Monday, February 2, Time TBD – The White House is expected to host a summit with executives from the banking and cryptocurrency industries to discuss a path forward for landmark crypto legislation currently working its way through the Senate.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, February 2, 12:30 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy before the Atlanta Rotary Club.

· Tuesday, February 3, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the SC First Steps “Early Advantage: Foundations for South Carolina's Economic Vitality" event.

· Wednesday, February 4, 6:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.

· Thursday, February 5, 10:50 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation and Q&A on monetary policy and navigating the economic environment after graduation at an event hosted by the Clark Atlanta University School of Business.

· Thursday, February 5, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook and supply-side inflation dynamics at a conference entitled: Supply-Side Factors and Inflation: What Have We Learned? Being hosted by The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Nothing significant to report.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Nothing significant to report.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Nothing significant to report.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Nothing significant to report.

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