Recommended Weekend Reads

Germany’s China Shock, Trump’s Monroe Doctrine is Aimed at China, How The U.S. Population Has Shifted,  Why China Doesn’t Want A U.S – Iran Deal, and How AI is Both Helping and Replacing Workers

February 27 - March 1, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them both interesting and useful.  Have a great weekend.

The Americas

• Trump's latter-day Monroe Doctrine is aimed at China   Peterson Institute for International Economics

  The US intervention in Venezuela, attacks on vessels in the Caribbean, financial squeeze on Cuba, and its bailout of Argentina should perhaps have come as no surprise. After all, the Trump administration has made no secret of its intentions, as laid out in the 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) document: To "reassert and enforce the 'Monroe Doctrine' to preserve U.S. preeminence in the [Western] Hemisphere and deny outside powers control of strategic locations and assets."  It would certainly appear that the administration is currently achieving the goals set out in the NSS, entrenching Latin America as the main stage for a geopolitical confrontation between the United States and China. But these actions could also introduce further turbulence into a region mired in political and economic problems.  China is heavily invested in Latin America through various channels, notably its "green" Belt and Road Initiative. The framework has enabled China's public banks and state-owned enterprises to underwrite massive projects in renewable energy sources, critical minerals, and infrastructure. It is estimated that since 2010, China has invested around $35 billion in renewable energy projects alone. The figure does not include the $1.3 billion spent to finance the massive Port of Chancay in Peru, which connects South America's Pacific Coast to Shanghai.

• Population drops and gains in every state     FlowingData

  The Census Bureau released population estimates for 2025. Most states gained population, but a few states saw more people move out than move in, with births not enough to compensate. By percentage, Puerto Rico, Hawaii, and West Virginia decreased in population the most since 2020. By total change, New York and California decreased by about 200,000 people each. The population in Louisiana, Illinois, and Mississippi also dropped.   Idaho went the other direction with the largest increase over 10%. Texas and Florida populations increased the most, with total increases of 2.56 million and 1.92 million, respectively.

• How Trump’s 15% Tariff Move Impacts Latin America    Americas Quarterly

  Latin American economies seem relatively well-positioned following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to invalidate last year’s tariffs on imports of goods and services and President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new 15% global tariff. Trump's previous levies were invalidated on February 20, after a majority of the U.S. Supreme Court’s justices (6-3) ruled that the president exceeded his authority to issue them, dealing the government a major setback. That day, Trump set a replacement global tariff of 10%, which was increased to 15% the next day.

  Europe, China, and Iran

• Germany’s China Shock        Internationale Politik Quarterly

  The China shock is here,” the German Economic Institute declared last July. Indeed, 2025 will go down as the year in which it could no longer be denied. Germany's trade deficit with China reached a record level of €87 billion—an increase of €20 billion compared to the previous year. And German exports to China continue to be in free fall. The United States, France, the Netherlands, Poland, and Italy have by now become more important export markets for Germany than China.  At the beginning of this century, China accounted for 6 percent of global industrial production. Today, the figure stands at around 30 percent. China’s economic model is firmly geared toward global dominance in industries where Germany has been traditionally strong, such as automotive, mechanical engineering, and chemicals—as well as in future industries such as robotics and biotechnology. Beijing not only leverages the economies of scale of its vast domestic market but also makes forward-looking investments in research and development.

• Why China Doesn’t Want the US and Iran to Make Peace   The Diplomat

  While Beijing publicly advocates restraint, sustained tensions between the U.S. and Iran serve its strategic interests. China's broader perspective on Iran is unlikely to change absent a major shock. Beijing views Tehran as a useful strategic partner in its long-term effort to counter Western – especially U.S. – dominance of the international system. As a result, China supports Iran diplomatically and economically, while also offering limited and discreet military-related assistance. This support does not typically take the form of overt arms sales, but rather the provision of dual-use components and technologies that can be used in Iranian drone and missile production. These activities allow Beijing to strengthen Iran’s resilience without incurring the costs associated with formal military alliances or large-scale weapons transfers.

• What It Will Take to Change the Regime in Iran    Behnam Ben taleblu/Foreign Affairs

  The Islamic Republic of Iran is, quite possibly, at its weakest point since its founding in 1979. In June, Israeli and U.S. attacks destroyed its uranium enrichment capacity and many of its air defense systems. In December and January, the country experienced the most widespread domestic uprising since the birth of the Islamic Republic. Throughout, it has faced spiraling economic and environmental crises that it cannot fix. None of these events has knocked out the Islamic Republic. But there is no doubt it is down.  It is easy to see why the Trump administration is prioritizing diplomacy and limited strikes. The Islamic Republic may be weak, but it is still lethal and capable of harming U.S. forces and civilian targets throughout its region.  Such measures could inspire the masses of Iranians who took to the streets in December and January to do so again. Just this week, Iran witnessed smaller-scale campus protests, showing that animosity against the regime very much remains. If regular protests resume, American military power could level the playing field between the street and the state, giving the country’s demonstrators a chance to succeed.

  Geoeconomics

• Living With Mom And Dad At 30        Aziz Sunderji Home Economics

  The share of American 30-year-olds living with their parents or roommates nearly doubled btw 1990 and 2025, from 17% to 32%. Aziz Sunderji finds that this group is largely responsible for the age cohort’s 15pp decline in homeownership over that period.

• The New Global Tariffs Are Also Unlawful    Philip Zelikow/Hoover Institution’s Freedom Frequency

  On February 20, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump’s tariffs imposed under an emergency powers law were unlawful. After raging at the court, the president imposed a new set of global tariffs using a different statutory authority.  Now, the Trump Administration has moved to use Section 122 to carry on the tariff policy.  And the author – who was involved in the recently decided case – argues the use of 122 is both obsolete and illegal.

• The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis     Citrini Research

  In this widely-hailed essay, Alap Shah of Citrini Research models a scenario that the author writes about the potential impact of AI on society.  Shah’s vision is that “In every way AI was exceeding expectations, and the market was AI.  The only problem… the economy was not…. AI capabilities improved, companies needed fewer workers, white collar layoffs increased, displaced workers spent less, margin pressure pushed firms to invest more in AI, AI capabilities improved… It was a negative feedback loop with no natural brake. The human intelligence displacement spiral. White-collar workers saw their earnings power (and, rationally, their spending) structurally impaired. Their incomes were the bedrock of the $13 trillion mortgage market - forcing underwriters to reassess whether prime mortgages are still money good.”  

• Speed Can Reindustrialize America        Austin Vernon Blog

  High US wages for skilled workers constrain robot adoption in manufacturing. “Many less productive US manufacturing firms could buy a robot, but couldn’t attract the talent to program it.” The US can’t “emulate” the low-wage, high-skilled China model.

• AI Is Simultaneously Aiding and Replacing Workers, Wage Data Suggest     J. Scott Davis Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

  For occupations with a very low experience premium, AI exposure lowered wage growth, likely due to substitution of AI for costly experienced workers. At the top of the experience distribution, AI raised wage growth, as it complements experienced workers.

• The Flawed Paper Behind Trump’s $100,000 H-1B Fee     Economic Innovation Group

  Abstract: Do H-1B visa holders earn more or less than Americans? There are two different ways to answer this. If we compare H-1B holders to the average native-born worker, the answer is unequivocal that the visa holder is paid more. Median H-1B pay in 2024 was $120,000 per USCIS, compared to $67,000 for the average native-born worker.  However, when we compare H-1B holders to otherwise similar native-born workers, the question becomes more complex. Answering it correctly requires careful examination. Unfortunately, a recent attempt at answering this question from Harvard economist George Borjas contains major errors.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Tariff Blow-Up, U.S.-Iran Tensions Spike, German Germany’s Merz Visits Beijing, Mexico Military Moves on Cartels, and Markets Await Nvidia’s Earnings and Central Bank Speeches

February 22 - March 1, 2026

This is going to be one very busy week geopolitically and geoeconomically. Perhaps truly historic when all is said and done, as tensions in Iran, Mexico, and global markets are all at a new peak.

First, at the time of this writing, the Mexican Army, in an unprecedented action, has moved against the country's largest and most dangerous drug cartel, Jalisco New Generation (CJNG), killing its leader, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes – otherwise known as “El Mencho “– on the outskirts of Puerto Vallarta. 

This has resulted in a large-scale ongoing battle between heavily armed CJNG gunmen and the Mexican Army in and around the city of Puerto Vallarta, including a reported attack by gunmen on the international airport, leading to the airport's closure.  Aside from the massive significance of the Mexican government's decision to go after the biggest and most dangerous cartel, perhaps the most interesting news coming out of the take-down of El Mencho is that a U.S. military task force is openly assisting the Mexican Army.  

Our view is this is all part of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum'sefforts not just to contain an increasingly political threat from cartels but also to show President Trump Mexico is truly committed to not only crack down on illegal immigration but dalso on rug trafficking – the two issues which drove President Trump to slap tariffs on Mexico last year and imperil the renewal of the USMCA trade agreement.  We are likely to see other large-scale attacks on other drug kingpins, which are likely to expand the violence elsewhere in Mexico.

Meanwhile, following President Trump's loss at the Supreme Court over the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs, the President announced a new set of tariffs to replace what was deemed illegal.   But the reality is, Trump's tariff efforts have suffered a major blow, and anything he does now will have a limited time span, as written into law – Trump intends to use Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, set at a 15% rate, as the main new tariff.  But under that law, it can only be held in place for 150 days.  He then intends to use Section 301 under U.S trade law after Section 122 expires. But in both instances, new lawsuits are expected to be brought by businesses, especially since the US Justice Department, in defense of the President's use of IEEPA, argued that using Section 122 would not be legal.

The bottom line is that tariffs are not going away. Still, President Trump has a limited time to use them in the remainder of his presidency, and Republicans in Congress are increasingly getting uneasy about their use and even now opposing Trump, as we saw in a vote in the House of Representatives two weeks ago. And two new polls suggest that 64% of Americans oppose the President's handling of tariffs on imported goods. 

We will hear more from the President on Tuesday night when he gives the annual State of the Union Address before Congress.

As all this happens, tensions in the Persian Gulf have ramped up considerably in the last week as President Trump has now given Iran “15 days" to strike a deal with the U.S. or risk being attacked by the largest U.S. Naval force that has been amassed in the region since the first Gulf War.  Iran is saying they will be meeting with President Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, on Friday, but the White House is saying that is contingent on Iranian leaders providing a detailed proposal to the U.S. on how they intend to dismantle and limit their nuclear program and nuclear weapons project.  Trump has also indicated he could order an attack on Iran at any time.  

 In Asia this week, the big event is German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's visit to Beijing for bilateral talks with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.  Merz had strong words for China last week at the Munich Security Conference, but also put forth a conciliatory hand, saying he hopes to “find the right balance of cooperation" with China on this trip.   Germany has long seen China as a major market, especially for its automotive sector, which sold 35 million cars in China in 2025.  But those numbers have already significantly slowed down in the first two months of 2026, along with other German exports to China.

 Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are nervous enough with all the geopolitical tensions, but are also nervous ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement on Wednesday.  The report is seen as a clear indication of how demand for high-tech AI chips has been and will continue to be, as markets grow increasingly nervous about corporate AI investments.  

A host of other major corporate earnings are being reported this week in the US, Europe, and Asia. In the US, we will see the delayed January PPI release on Friday.  But first, we will be getting the Conference Board's consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the President's State of the Union on Tuesday, and numerous Federal Reserve Board and regional Fed President speeches this week.

 In Europe, the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, speaking Monday at the NABE (National Association of Business Economics) Economic Conference in Washington, D.C., is expected to come out strongly against President Trump's newset of tariffs and to offer a sense of the impact they will have on EU-US trade.

Also coming out of Europe this week, Germany releases its important Ifo Survey on Monday.  But the big day this week is Friday, when Germany, France, and Spain release their CPI prints and consumer confidence numbers.  The UK will also release its consumer confidence figures on Friday.

Finally, turning to Asia, Japan releases industrial production figures and the Tokyo CPI (February) on Friday.  Australia releases its inflation print (CPI) on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 22, 2026

Global

·       Italy will host the closing ceremony for the 2026 Winter Olympic Games at the Verona Olympic Arena.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will make a state visit to South Korea through February 24.

·       Today is Independence Day in St. Lucia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea's quinquennial Party Congress could persist through February 27.

·       Laos holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Algeria celebrates the Day of Fraternity and Cohesion, celebrating events in 2019 when the entire country rose in unison to hold nationwide protests leading to a change in the government.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 23, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US officials will hold bilateral security discussions with their Mauritian counterparts on the continued use of the joint US-UK base on Diego Garcia. This three-day meeting follows an agreement finalized last year between the UK and Mauritius, which sees the UK hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius.

·       Today is the deadline set by Warner Bros Discovery for Paramount to make a “best and final” offer to top Netflix’s agreed $83 billion takeover bid or step aside. However Paramount’s $108 billion offer last week cleared a key US antitrust hurdle.

·       Today is Republic Day in Guyana, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the  2026 National Association for Business Economists (NABE) Annual Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (February)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Economic Activity (December)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (December)/ Factory Orders (December)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)                 

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Dominion, Domino’s Pizza, Hims & Hers

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 45th U.S. – Thai "Cobra Gold" military training hosted by Thailand begins at the Thai navy base in the eastern coastal city of Chonburi. The multinational military exercises will take place through March 6, with more than 8,000 military personnel from 30 countries joining the full-scale training drill.

·       The International Criminal Court starts the confirmation of charges hearing against Duterte. The former Filipino leader, currently facing three counts of crimes against humanity, is currently being held in a detention center at The Hague in the Netherlands.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q4/ Credit Card Spending (January)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (January)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q4

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (February)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Union lawmakers will hold an emergency meeting Monday to reassess the bloc’s trade deal with the US following the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down some of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs.

·       A new Dutch cabinet will be sworn in, with Rob Jetten set to become prime minister.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Foreign ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East (Gaza and West Bank as well as the growing tensions between the US and Iran).

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

·       Russia celebrates Defender of the Fatherland Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an acceptance speech for the 2026 Paul A. Volcker Lifetime Achievement Award and remarks at NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington DC

·       Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee external member Alan Taylor takes part in a Deutsche Bank-hosted fireside chat in London.

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (January)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (February)/ Ifo Current Conditions (February)/ Ifo Expectations (February)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (February)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (January)

·       EARNINGS: LendLease, MONY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Ukraine. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump gives the annual State of the Union speech before the U.S. Congress.

·       Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is expected to present her controversial electoral reform plan to parliament.

·       The 50th Regular Meeting of the Conference of the Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) will be held in St. Kitts and Nevis through February 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech focused on technology at the2026 Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference: Shaping the Future of Finance and Payments, Boston, Massachusetts.  Also speaking at the Conference will be Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President & CEO Susan Collins and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President & CEO Tom Barkin.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on artificial intelligence and productivity at the 2026 National Association for Business Economists (NABE) Annual Economic Policy Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and CEO Austan Goolsbee will speak at the 42nd Annual Economic Policy Conference of the National Association for Business Economics in Washington, D.C. 

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated discussion on the economic outlook.

·       Brazil Current Account (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)

·       Chile PPI (January)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (February)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (February/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (December)/ House Price Index (December)/ CB Consumer Confidence (February)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (February)/ Money Supply (January)/API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/20)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (January)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (December)

·       Peru Current Account Q4

·       EARNINGS: American Tower REIT, Axon Enterprise, GoDaddy, Home Depot, HP, Keurig Dr. Pepper, ScotiaBank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's Legislative Yuan will reconvene, with top priorities including discussion of a special defense budget and the U.S.-Taiwan trade deal.

·       The UN-sponsored Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development 2026 will be held from February 24-27 in Bangkok, Thailand.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (February)/ PPI (January)

·       China FDI (YTD) (January)

·       EARNINGS: Singapore Airlines, UOB

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to Beijing for meetings with President Jinping Xi.  The leaders will discuss bilateral trade and security issues.

·       Today is the 4th anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  European Affairs Ministers will discuss preparations for the upcoming European Council meeting on March 19-20 as well as the European Democracy Shield.

·       Today is Independence Day in Estonia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on the opening panel discussion at the International Outreach Programme of Alte Oper Frankfurt in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the KPMG RiskTech Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen participates on a panel discussion at the Nordea-ING event on "Banks and EU competitiveness: the untapped potential of the single market" in Brussels, Belgium.

·       BOE Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence on the latest Monetary Policy Report to Parliament’s Treasury Committee, joined by Chief Economist Huw Pill, and rate-setters Megan Greene and Alan Taylor.

·       Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson discusses the economic situation in Sundsvall, Sweden.

·       European Union New Car Registrations (January)

·       France Business Confidence (February)/ Business Climate Indicator (February)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q4

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (February)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (February)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: City of London Investment Group, Standard Chartered, Telefonica, Unite

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1718 Committee (North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks in a moderated panel at the Northern Virginia Chamber.

·       Brazil Bank Lending (January)

·       President and CEO of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Alberto Musalem speaks at the Missouri Athletic Club in St. Louis, Missouri.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/20)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February/20)/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/25)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (January)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (January)

·       Mexico Current Account Q4

·       Argentina Retail Sales (December)

·       Paraguay PPI (January)

·       EARNINGS: Zoom, Urban Outfitters, NVIDIA, Salesforce, Lowe’s, Agilent Technologies, Bank of Montreal, National Bank of Canada

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea, the country with the world's lowest fertility rate, is due to publish birth rate data for 2025 amid concerns about how an aging society will weigh on the economy.

·       Hong Kong Financial Secretary Paul Chan delivers the city’s 2026–27 budget.

·       The Asia Energy Security Seminar, hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to promote Japan’s energy security activities. This year’s event will focus on the role of diplomacy with a particular emphasis on oil and natural gas.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Japanese government will present to the Japanese Diet two new nominees to the Central Bank of Japan’s board.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock speaks in a fireside chat at the University of Melbourne.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (February)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (January)/ CPI (January)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (January)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Index (December)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       India M3 Money Supply (February/14)

·       EARNINGS: Baidu

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers today and tomorrow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic speaks in the EU Parliament in Brussels ahead of his appointment as ECB vice president.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the PwC Credit Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence MAR/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       France Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (January)

·       Spain PPI (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (February)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Russia Industrial Production (January)

·       EARNINGS: HSBC, Aston Martin Lagonda, Diageo, E.On, Fortescue, Fresenius, Heathrow, Manchester United, St. James Place, Shaftsbury Capital

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

·       The International Monetary Fund's executive board will meet to discuss the reviews of Egypt's Extended Fund Facility and Resilience and Sustainability Facility programs to potentially unlock up to $2.8 billion. 

·       Today is National Day in Kuwait, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa South African 2026 National Budget Speech

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q4

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to appear before the House Oversight Committee as part of an investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, followed by the testimony of former President Bill Clinton the next day.

·       Argentina's main labor union, the General Confederation of Labor, will hold a 24-hour general strike to oppose labor reforms. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman testifies before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (February)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Canada Current Account Q4/ Average Weekly Earnings (December)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/21)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (February/14)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ Kansas Fed Composite Index (February)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (February)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/26)

·       EARNINGS: Dell, Intuit, JM Smucker, Royal Bank of Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, TD Bank

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajimie Takata gives a speech to local leaders in Kyoto, Japan.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (February/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (February/21)/ BoJ Takada Speech/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (February)

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q4/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q4/ Private Capital Expenditure Q4

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia PPI (January)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (January)

·       Taiwan Current Account Q4/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       EARNINGS: Maybank HKEX, Quantas Airways

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       A special election will be held in Gorton and Denton, suburbs of Manchester, UK.  The outcome could spell the end of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s rule in office.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research) will meet in Brussels.  The Council will discuss research and funding for coal and steel, and the Horizon Europe Package.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at the Bank of England/UK Women in Economics Network networking event in London.

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/20)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech/ Loans to Households & Companies (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January)/ Economic Sentiment (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)/ Industrial Sentiment (February)/ Selling Price Expectations (February)/ Services Sentiment (February)

·       Italy Business Confidence (February)/ Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (January)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Greece Total Credit (January)

·       Spain Business Confidence (February)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (February)

·       EARNINGS: Allianz, Clariant, Man Group, Rolls-Royce, Tate & Lyle, WPP, Deutsche Telekom, Drax, London Stock Exchange, Puma

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (December)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Bank Lending (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (January)

Friday, February 27, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Dominican Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (January)/ Nominal Budget Balance (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (February)/ Net Payrolls (January)

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q4/ GDP Implicit Price Q4/ Budget Balance (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Manufacturing Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate JA

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (January)/ Fiscal Balance (January)

·       USA PPI (January)/ Chicago PMI (February)/ Construction Spending (November & December)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/27)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (January)/ Cement Production (January)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: AES

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian Air Force is set to hold a large-scale exercise at Pokhran in the northwestern state of Rajasthan using fighter, transport, and helicopter platforms. Among the assets to be demonstrated are indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft, French-made Rafale fighters, and Russian-developed Sukhoi Su-30 MKI jets. The exercise will also showcase glimpses of the IAF's role in rescue and evacuation from conflict zones.

·       Today is Peace Memorial Day in Taiwan, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (February)

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (February)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Housing Starts (January)/ Construction Orders (January)

·       Australia Housing Credit (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (January)/ Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (January)/ Current Account (January)/ Private Consumption (January)/ Private Investment (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (January)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Government Budget Value (January)/ Bank Loan Growth (February/06)/ Deposit Growth (February/06)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/20)

·       EARNINGS: New World Development, RHB  

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the Elgin Advisory and Society for Professional Economists “UK & US economics” webinar.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (February)/ Car Production (January)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (February)

·       Germany Import Prices (January)/ Unemployed Persons (February)/ Unemployment Change (February)/ Unemployment Rate (February)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (February)/ Bavaria CPI (February)/ Brandenburg CPI (February)/ Hesse CPI (February)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (February)/ Saxony CPI (February)/ Inflation Rate (February)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Economic Confidence Index (February)/ Participation Rate (January)

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ KOF Leading Indicators (February)

·       France Inflation Rate (February)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q4/ PPI (January)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (January)/ Jobseekers Total (January)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (February)/ Current Account (December)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (December)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (February)/ PPI (January)

·       Greece Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (January)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (January)

·       Serbia Industrial Production (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Swiss Re, AES, Hays, Rathbones, IAG, Melrose Industries

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (January)/ Private Sector Credit (January)/ Balance of Trade (January)/ Budget Balance (January)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (February)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (February)

·       Kenya

Saturday, February 28, 2026

Global

·       Six of our solar system’s planets — Jupiter, Uranus, Saturn, Neptune, Venus, and Mercury — will be visible in the night sky of the northern hemisphere in a “parade” after sunset.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

·       Today is the deadline for China to meet its pledge to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, March 1, 2026

Global

·       The U.S. takes the rotating chair of the UN Security Council for the month of March.

·       Today is the first day of the meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to India for meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

·       Beijing is expected to lower tariffs on Canadian canola seed from about 85 per cent to 15 per cent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (February)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Trump’s IEEPA Tariffs Are Dead. Now What?, Iran: What Happens Next if the US Launches Attacks, How A BRICS Currency Could Happen, and the Looming Fiscal Crisis in the Western World

February 20 - 22, 2026

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

U.S. Trade Policy After the IEEPA Decision

• Trump’s Options After the Supreme Court Said His Tariffs Are Illegal   Bloomberg

  On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court President Trump had illegally used of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for his April 2025 “Liberation Day” calls into question what Trump will do next.  Trump has at least five tools he can use to offset the IEEPA tariffs; however, none of them offer the latitude that Trump’s interpretation of IEEPA allowed. Section 338 of Smoot-Hawley, which has never been used, likely has the broadest scope.

• State of U.S. Tariffs: February 20, 2026        Yale University Budget Lab

  The Budget Lab estimates the effects of all US tariffs and foreign retaliation implemented in 2025 after the decision by the Supreme Court of the United States that President Trump exceeded his authority to invoke the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose reciprocal tariffs. Without IEEPA tariffs, consumers will face an overall average effective tariff rate of 9.1%, which remains the highest since 1946 excluding 2025. (If IEEPA tariffs had been allowed to stay in effect, this figure would have been 16.9%.) All tariffs to date as of February 2026 are projected to raise about $1.2 trillion over 2026-35, though slower economic growth reduces revenues and brings the net dynamic revenue to $1 trillion. (With IEEPA, these figures would be more than twice as large.) The economic implications of the SCOTUS decision are complicated by two major factors. First, in the short-term, firms will be aggressively seeking refunds on tariffs paid in 2025, which has large revenue effects and uncertain distributional effects. Second, the current Administration has stated its intent to replace IEEPA tariffs with tariffs using other authorities, but there remain timing and other questions regarding these steps.

Implications of Growing U.S. – Iran Military Tensions

• The Day After Khamenei: Iran’s ‘Liberation’ Will Begin as an IRGC Power Struggle   Charbel Antoun/National Interest

  Many imagine the day after Ali Khamenei as a moment of sudden liberation: Iranians shaking off the mullahs and deciding their own destiny. The likelier opening act is far less romantic.  The immediate aftermath will probably look less like a velvet revolution and more like the opening round of an insider power struggle—staged and refereed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its allies. The institutions that have grown strongest under Khamenei are not parliaments, parties, or independent courts, but the security state and its sprawling economic empire. Those are the actors best positioned to inherit the republic he leaves behind.
  

• Iran’s regime is suffering from strategic vertigo. Its next misstep may be its last   The Atlantic Council

  Tehran appears to be suffering from a case of strategic vertigo. As Iranian leaders continue to see their major decisions backfire over the course of two and a half years, a disorienting dizzy spell may be the best way to describe the state of Iranian foreign policy.  Negotiations between the United States and Iran are ongoing, with US President Donald Trump Thursday that he expects a resolution within ten to fifteen days, as he also undertakes a massive military buildup for a possible conflict. The talks provide the regime with a rare opportunity—a gift, even—to escape from yet another predicament. The question right now is whether leaders in Tehran grasp the magnitude of the moment and refrain from their old habits of obstinacy, or whether they will add another strategic error to their string of missteps—one that could be their last. With the United States preparing for strikes if negotiations fail, the question arises of how Iran reached the precipice in the first place.
  

• What War With Iran Would Look Like      Arash Reisinezhad/Foreign Policy Magazine

  Washington and Tehran may be closer to military confrontation than at any point in memory, but they are not on the brink of war in any conventional sense. The most plausible outcome of the current standoff is not a U.S. invasion of Iran or a full-scale regional war. It is a limited, carefully calibrated strike designed to reshape bargaining dynamics rather than end them.
  

• Iran: What Challenges face the country in 2026?   House of Commons Library

  In 2025, the US and Israel struck Iran’s nuclear program, the UN reimposed sanctions against the country and its economy continued to struggle.  Iran’s regional position also worsened. Established leaders of many Iran-backed armed and proscribed terrorist groups have been eliminated, and their strength weakened in the regional conflict that has been ongoing since 2023. Some Iran-backed groups are facing renewed local and international calls to disarm. This briefing  for UK Members of Parliament surveys the situation in Iran, including the challenges facing its government; the status of Iran’s nuclear program and the potential for further strikes in 2026; and pressures on Iran-backed groups in the region.
  

• Iran Oil And Gas Market Size & Share Analysis - Growth Trends and Forecast (2026 - 2031)   Mordor Intelligence

  According to Mordor’s recent research, Iran’s oil and gas market size in 2026 is estimated at USD 39.18 billion, growing from 2025 value of USD 37.10 billion with 2031 projections showing USD 51.51 billion, growing at 5.62% CAGR over 2026-2031.  Robust reserve availability, state-backed capital deployment, and resilient export flows underpin this trajectory even as sanctions pressure persists.  The upstream sector anchors revenue, as Iran is the fourth-largest crude producer in OPEC.  Meanwhile, the downstream segment is growing faster, with domestic firms adding fluid catalytic cracking and condensate-splitting capacity to increase product yields.  Onshore production remains the backbone of the Iranian oil and gas market, but offshore investments at South Pars are accelerating to protect reservoir pressure and sustain natural-gas output.  Asset deployment overwhelmingly favors development projects, yet exploration spending is rising because reserve replacement has become a policy imperative.  High market concentration persists: The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and its subsidiaries continue to dictate most decisions, although private and quasi-state contractors now win multi-billion-dollar tenders that were once the domain of foreign major oil companies.

Geoeconomics and Global Markets

• Could a BRICS Currency Work?    Jim O’Neill/ Project Syndicate

  O’Neill – who coined the acronym “BRICS” – argues Economists have long dismissed the idea that a BRICS common currency could challenge the US dollar's role in the global economy, and for good reason. But that doesn't mean there couldn't be new common rails for settling trade between countries that want to escape the long arm of the US government.

• Across The Rich World, Fiscal Crises Loom     The Economist

  The Economist calculates that most rich countries could still run small primary deficits [deficits net of interest payments] and keep debts stable as a share of their economies, even if they had to refinance all their debt immediately at today’s rates. The largest primary surplus required to balance debts is in Britain, at just 0.3% of GDP. That is not large for countries in a pinch. In the late 1990s Italy ran primary surpluses of 3-6% of GDP to bring down debts before joining the euro. In Britain and America, deficits are large. The belt tightening needed to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 2% of GDP; in France it is greater than 3% of GDP. Things look worse still when you consider the coming wave of spending on ageing populations, defense and the climate transition. And higher debt interest costs to come are not yet fully accounted for.

•   Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic?   Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Xiaolan   National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We analyze real returns on U.S. and U.K. government debt during major wars and the COVID-19 pandemic over the past three centuries. Wars are associated with sharply negative real returns on outstanding government debt, with returns falling far below economic growth, in contrast to peacetime periods when returns exceed growth. Elevated surprise inflation and financial repression account for a cumulative 31% wedge between returns and growth over four years of war, implying that bondholders bear a substantial share of wartime fiscal costs. During wartime, government bonds also systematically underperform risky assets.

• When Houses Outrun Paychecks: The Lost Decades of Housing Affordability   Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ON the Economy Blog

  Abstract: In this blog post, we analyze how housing affordability has evolved over the past 20 years. For most U.S. counties, the story is remarkably similar: Home values have risen much faster than the incomes of the people living in them. From 2000 to 2024, median per-capita income has grown steadily but modestly, at around 155% in nominal terms. Over the same period, median home prices—when measured carefully and adjusted for local composition—have increased at a much faster pace, at around 207% in nominal terms. This divergence helps explain why younger households struggle to buy their first home, while longtime owners increasingly view housing as their primary source of wealth.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Future of NATO and the Transatlantic Relationship, Are Trump’s Tariffs Working? And The Persistent Global Fertility Decline

February 13 - 15, 2026

Below are several reports and articles we read this past week that we found particularly interesting.  I hope you find them both interesting and useful.  Have a great weekend.

The Future of NATO and the Munich Security Conference 

NOTE: With the Munich Security Conference taking place this weekend, we wanted to bring focus to several of the key issues being discussed and debated.

• Trump’s NATO Dilemma – America Can’t Disengage from the Alliance and Also Lead It    Sara Bjerg Moller/Foreign Affairs

  Amid a sea of disruptions—territorial threats against Denmark, missed alliance meetings by senior U.S. diplomats, and planned personnel reductions at NATO installations—the Trump administration’s second-term approach to NATO is now coming into focus. Rather than openly abandoning the alliance, as some analysts feared, the United States appears to be “quiet quitting”: incrementally stepping away from the alliance it has led for close to eight decades. The White House seems to believe that only if the United States steps back will Europe finally be forced to step up.  But it will find that walking away from overseeing NATO’s military machinery is far harder than anticipated. NATO’s command structure was built around U.S. infrastructure and personnel, and no other member of the alliance is currently equipped to replace Washington. If Trump does choose to push ahead with his planned disengagement, the logistics of succession would be the least of the United States’ concerns. No major power has ever voluntarily surrendered control, much less command, of an alliance it built and led. Doing so at a moment of profound geopolitical upheaval would weaken the transatlantic partnership—and leave the United States less secure.
  

• Poll: Top NATO allies don’t think the US helps deter enemies anymore     Politico EU

  As global leaders convene in Germany for the Munich Security Conference, new results from The POLITICO Poll show President Donald Trump’s efforts to rewrite longstanding international relationships — particularly in Europe — are repelling longtime, traditionally loyal partners. The United States’ eroding reputation is raising fresh questions about the stability of the global order that has held for decades, and of the country’s strength on the world stage. Across all countries polled, far more people described the U.S. as an unreliable ally than a reliable one, including half the adults polled in Germany and 57 percent in Canada. In France, too, the share of people who called the U.S. unreliable was more than double the share who said it was reliable.
  

• Can Germany's Merz be the savior of Europe?    Reuters Commentary

  European Union leaders are meeting this week to discuss how to boost the bloc's competitiveness. While President Donald Trump’s withering description of Europe last month as a "decaying" region was unwelcome, it may be what finally prompts them to take much-needed action. Germany has historically been a brake on EU reform, but Berlin now appears to be on board. Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the World Economic Forum in Davos last month that the EU now had no choice but to urgently pursue former European Central Bank president Mario Draghi’s blueprint for a competitive Europe.
  

• Europe’s Next Hegemon: The Perils of German Power    Liana Fix/Foreign Affairs

  After many delays, Germany’s Zeitenwende—its 2022 promise to become one of Europe’s defense leaders—is finally becoming a reality. In 2025, Germany spent more on defense than any other European country in absolute terms. Its military budget today ranks fourth in the world, just after Russia’s. Annual military spending is expected to reach $189 billion in 2029, more than triple what it was in 2022. Germany is even considering a return to mandatory conscription if its military, the Bundeswehr, cannot attract enough voluntary recruits. Should the country stay the course, it will again be a great military power before 2030.
  

• Vladimir Putin is trapped in a war he cannot win but dare not end     Peter Dickerson/The Atlantic Council

  Putin’s reluctance to accept Trump’s offer makes perfect sense when viewed from the perspective of the Russian ruler’s revisionist worldview and imperial ambitions. Crucially, Putin is well aware that any peace deal based on the current front lines of the war would leave 80 percent of Ukraine beyond Kremlin control and free to integrate into the democratic world. That is exactly what he is fighting to prevent. As the war enters a fifth year, Putin finds himself in an unenviable predicament. He has no obvious pathway to victory, but cannot agree to a compromise peace without acknowledging what would amount to a historic defeat and placing his own political survival in question.
  

Tariffs, Trade, and Geoeconomics

• Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?    Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is out with a new analysis that finds ~90% of tariffs’ economic burden was borne by American firms and consumers in the first 8 months of 2025. Between January and November, however, that incidence declined 88 percent as firms reorganized supply chains.

• Americans Largely Disapprove of Trump’s Tariff Increases    Pew Research Center

  By a wide margin, Americans continue to say they disapprove of the Trump Administration substantially increasing tariffs: 60% say, including 39% who say they strongly disapprove.  By contrast, 37% say they approve of the increased tariffs, and just 13% strongly approve.  Views of the Administration’s tariff increase have been relatively stable since last April, when President Donald Trump unveiled his far-reaching tariff policy.

• Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump Trade War   The Tax Foundation

  President Trump has imposed International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs on US trading partners, including China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. In addition, he has threatened and imposed Section 232 tariffs on autos, heavy trucks, steel, aluminum, lumber, furniture, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and copper, among others.  The Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,000 in 2025 and $1,300 in 2026.  Under the tariffs imposed and scheduled as of February 6, 2026, the weighted average applied tariff rate on all imports rises to 13.5 percent, and the average effective tariff rate, reflecting behavioral responses, rises to 9.9 percent—the highest average rate since 1946.  The Trump tariffs are the largest US tax increase as a percent of GDP (0.54 percent for 2026) since 1993.  Trump’s imposed tariffs will raise $2.0 trillion in revenue from 2026-2035 on a conventional basis and reduce US GDP by 0.5 percent, all before foreign retaliation. Accounting for negative economic effects, the revenue raised by the tariffs falls to $1.6 trillion over the next decade. We estimate that the tariffs raised $132 billion in net tax revenue in 2025. The Trump tariffs threaten to offset much of the economic benefits of the new tax cuts, while falling short of paying for them.

Demographic Trends and Employment Gaps

• The Likelihood of Persistently Low Global Fertility      Journal of Economic Perspectives

  Low fertility is likely to persist as a global phenomenon as pro-natal policies have been insufficient to “adequately challenge conventions, challenge social orders, and challenge what gets society’s attention, power, and investment.”

• Switzerland To Vote On Plan To Cap Population At 10mn     Financial Times

  Switzerland will hold a vote on a radical proposal to cap the country’s population at 10mn people, a move that could threaten crucial agreements with the EU and limit companies’ access to skilled foreign workers.  The country’s current population is 9.1 million people, and Switzerland has a high level of immigration, as people are drawn by its high wages and quality of life.  It has one of the largest proportions of foreign residents in Europe, at 27% according to official figures, and its population has grown by some 25% since 2000, much higher than most neighboring countries.

•  The H-1B Wage Gap, Visa Fees, and Employer Demand    George J. Borjas/National Bureau of Economic ResearchAbstract: The H-1B program lets firms hire high-skill foreign workers for a six-year term. The annual number of visas allocated to for-profit firms is capped at 85,000 and there is excess demand for those visas. The analysis merges administrative data, including the I-129 petitions that report the wage offer made to specific H-1B beneficiaries, with the American Community Surveys. On average, H-1B workers earn 16 percent less than comparable natives, suggesting that firms may be willing to pay a one-time fee to obtain the visa. The data are examined using a labor demand model to simulate how a fee alters the hiring decision. Depending on the level of excess demand, the unobserved productivity gains or costs from an H-1B hire, and the rate of job separations, the revenue-maximizing fee is between $118,000 and $264,000, has little or no impact on the number of H-1Bs hired, and generates between $6.2 and $22.4 billion in revenues. The demand for visas remains strong even if firms offshore some of the jobs currently held by H-1Bs. The fee also changes the skill composition of the H-1B workforce, making it more skilled.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

SEC Chair Atkins Testifies Before Congress on The SEC’s Agenda, Fed Vice Chair Bowman Speaks on the Regulatory Outlook, And Treasury Secretary Bessent Gives a Peek into The Trump Regulatory Reform Plan

February 9 - 13, 2026

It is a busy week for financial regulatory strategy.  First, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee regarding his strategic plans for the SEC.  

While this is happening, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be giving a closely watched virtual speech at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference.  Both Atkins's and Bowman’s remarks follow Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s testimony last week before Congress on the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC).  

Bessent said the Administration will focus on regulations that hinder economic growth.  “FSOC should … work with its members to support efforts to avoid or pare back existing regulation that stifles pro-growth lending, capital formation, and innovation. And the best way to achieve these goals is by centering economic growth and economic security at the heart of FSOC’s agenda,” he said.

Bessent said he supports higher deposit insurance levels and that we should expect new nonbank guidance later this year that updates Biden-era standards for nonbank financial institutions.  Overall, Bessent made it very clear that he and the White House intend to direct deregulatory changes rather than maintain regulatory independence and hope for the best. 

Also, last week, CFTC Chair Michael Selig announced that the agency would support prediction markets and craft new rules for them. “Consistent with my commitment to fostering responsible innovation in crypto asset markets, I will continue to support the responsible development of event contract markets,” said Selig.

For banks, the big event was the Federal Reserve's finalization of the 2026 stress test exams. You can find them HERE.  Thirty-two large banks will be tested against a severe global recession scenario, including a nearly 5.5 percentage-point rise in unemployment, a roughly 30% decline in home prices, and stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets. 

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Thursday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Committee.”  

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, February 10, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Building a Solid Foundation: Restoring Trust and Transparency in Public Housing Agencies.”

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Committee.”  You can read the Committee’s background memorandum on the hearing HERE.

 ·       Wednesday, February 11, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance will hold a hearing entitled “Homeownership and the Role of the Secondary Mortgage Market.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Meetings & Events

The White House

 ·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, February 9, 1:30 p.m. PST – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on digital assets at the Global Interdependence Center Summit: The Dollar and Continued U.S. Exceptionalism, La Jolla, California.

·       Monday, February 9: 23 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation on the economy at the Boston University Questrom School of Business Events and Conference Center, Boston, Massachusetts. Later (5:00 p.m.), he will participate in a conversation at the WBUR Podcast: Is Business Broken, in Boston.

·       Tuesday, February 9, 12:00 p.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “Banking and the Economic Outlook" before the 2026 Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit

·       Tuesday, February 10, 1:00 p.m. – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2026 Asset Management Derivatives Forum hosted by SIFMA and FIA.

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:10 a.m. – Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Schmid speaks on monetary policy and the economic outlook before the Economic Forum of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:15 a.m. - Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on supervision and regulation at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference (virtual)

·       Wednesday, February 11, 4:00 p.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in Leadership Dialogue, “Exploring Leadership, Economic Policy, and Career Pathways in Public Service" Leadership Dialogue hosted by the Ohio State University John Glenn College of Public Affairs.

·       Thursday, February 12, 7:05 p.m. CT – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Global Perspectives Event, Dallas, Texas.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Nothing significant to report.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing entitled “Oversight of the Securities and Exchange Committee.”  You can read the Committee’s background memorandum on the hearing HERE.

·       Thursday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the Senate Banking Committee hearing entitled “Oversight of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.” 

·       Thursday, February 12, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Nothing significant to report.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       Thursday, February 12, 10:00 a.m. – the FCA Board meets to consider a new Human Capital Overview Report and the final rule dealing with business planning.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       Wednesday, February 11, 10:00 a.m. – the FCSIC Board meets.  In open/new business session they will consider: The Review and Setting of Insurance Premium Accrual Rates, Payment from Allocated Insurance Reserves Accounts, A Policy Statement re: Allowance for Insurance Fund Loss, A Policy Statement re: Alternative Means of Dispute Resolution, and a Policy Statement re: Receivership and Conservatorship Counsel.  In Closed Session, they will review the Annual Report of Contracts and the Annual Report on Whistleblower Activity.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Sunday – Wednesday, February 8 – 11: SIFMA and the FIA hold their Asset Management Derivatives Forum in Austin, Texas.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, February 10, 3:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a virtual discussion on "The Next Chapter of Community Development Finance and Place-Based Investment."

·       Thursday, February 12, 1:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution hosts a discussion on “The Future of the Digital Economy.”

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The Global Week Ahead

NATO Defense Ministers Meet to Discuss Ukraine, The Munich Security Conference Brings Focus to the Future of NATO, the Lunar New Year Begins, and a Week of Big Earnings

February 8 - 15, 2026

The geopolitical focus this week will be on Europe, with a focus on Ukraine and NATO.  The big event of the week is the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC), which begins on Friday.  There is always a lot of news from the MSC, and we expect this year to be no different, as a major theme of the conference is the future of NATO and Europe’s drive to build a stronger, more integrated defense sector.

 However, the MSC comes on the heels of an important meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Thursday to discuss further military support for Ukraine.  US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he plans to skip the meeting.  Later in the day, EU defense ministers will meet amongst themselves and with Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov to discuss the situation in Ukraine.

We would also note that, while it has yet to be formally announced, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has told reporters he expects the first trilateral peace talks among Ukraine, Russia, and the USto take place sometime this week, most likely in Miami.  

The biggest event of the week took place today (Sunday) in Japan, with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide win in snap elections.  Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) gained a historic supermajority in the Japanese Diet (Parliament), winning 316 of the 465 seats.  The results are expected to have major impacts on Japan’s defense strategy and tax cuts, and to put pressure on the Bank of Japan to hold rates.

In the US, Washington’s growing focus on Latin America continues as summit on Friday to discuss common security concerns.  

This comes as President Trump hosts a Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.  Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, markets are watching for the delayed January jobs data, released on Wednesday, and the delayed January CPI report, released on Friday.  

In Europe this week, it is a relatively light data week.  European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give several speeches, including two at the Munich Security Conference.  In the UK, Q4 GDP is released on Thursday. 

Moving to Asia, Japan’s Economy Watchers survey is out on Monday, and PPI on Thursday.  China’s inflation reports are out on Wednesday.

Finally, this is a heavy earnings week in the US and Europe.  Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

·       In Bahrain, the UN-sponsored World Entrepreneurs Investment Forum 2026 will be held through February 10th.

·       The 2026 Winter Olympics continue through February 22nd in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA may launch three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.  This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

·       Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds lower house elections.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position.  More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

·       Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 9, 2026

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on digital assets at the Global Interdependence Center Summit: The Dollar and Continued U.S. Exceptionalism, La Jolla, California.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation on the economy at the Boston University Questrom School of Business Events and Conference Center, Boston, Massachusetts. Later, eh will participate in a conversation at the WBUR Podcast: Is Business Broken, in Boston.

·       Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation with Pro Farmer.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (January)

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Hong Kong media tycoon Jimmy Lai is due to be sentenced, following his conviction in a controversial trial that drew global attention. Lai was found guilty of colluding with foreign forces under the National Security Law that China imposed on Hong Kong in 2020, and of publishing seditious materials.  He could receive a life sentence.

·       The Philippines' House of Representatives is expected to vote on whether to revive impeachment complaints against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. While a lower house committee previously dismissed the bid for "lack of substance," a one-third vote from the chamber could still overturn that decision.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Overtime Pay (December)/ Bank Lending (January)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (January)

·       Australia Household Spending (December)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Motorbike Sales (January)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (December)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       EARNINGS: DBS

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Great Britain’s Prince William is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in debate on the state of the EU economy and ECB activities in Strasbourg, France.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at Maynooth University in Maynooth, Ireland.

·       European Central. Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus speaks in Vilnius, Lithuania.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel joins panel discussion on inflation in Karlsruhe, Germany.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (December)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (December)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (January)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (January)

·       EARNINGS: UniCredit

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

South Africa will host the Mining Indaba conference in Cape Town through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (January)

Tuesday, February 10, 2026

Global

·       International Energy Week runs through February 12 in London, assembling global leaders to tackle key issues in the energy transition.

·       The Oslo Energy Forum is being held in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance will visit Armenia.

·       President Trump hosts the Hispanic Prosperity Gala at Mar-a-Lago, Florida.  Argentine President Javier Milei and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro are expected to attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks at the Ohio Bankers League Economic Summit in Cleveland, Ohio.

·       Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks at the Asset Management Derivatives Forum.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (January)/ ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Retail Sales (December)/ Employment Cost Index Q4/ Export Prices (December)/ Import Prices (December)/ Redbook (February/07)/ Business Inventories (November)/ Total Household Debt Q4/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Fed Logan Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (February/06)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (January)/ Car Production (January)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Mexico Auto Exports & Production (January)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador PPI (January)

·       EARNINGS: Ford, Mattel, Principal Financial, CVS Health, Duke Energy, AstraZeneca, AIG, Coca-Cola, Spotify

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Cryptocurrency data company CoinDesk holds its Consensus HK Conference through Thursday in Hong Kong, bringing industry luminaries to a city striving to develop as a hub for the sector. But the shaky performance of Bitcoin and other digital currencies so far this year will be looming over the festivities.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (February)/ NAB Business Confidence (January)/ Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (December)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (December)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       EARNINGS: Mazda, Honda

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (January)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (January)

·       France Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Turkey Industrial Production (December)

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (December)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (December)

·       Greece Industrial Production (December)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (January)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Barclays, BP,

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (December)

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (January)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 11, 2026

Global

·       The UN’s the 6th Global Conference on the Elimination of Child Labour will be held from through February 13th in Marrakech, Morocco.

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Vice President JD Vance is expected to visit Azerbaijan.

·       The US will host the inaugural Western Hemisphere Chiefs of Defense Conference in Washington.

·       Barbados holds elections for their House of Assembly.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak on supervision and regulation at the Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 33rd Annual Winter Financial Services Conference (virtual)

·       Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks at the Economic Forum of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

·       Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks on leadership at Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio.

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Brazil PPI (December)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (December)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (February/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (February/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (February)/ Monthly Budget Statement (January)

·       Bank on Canada releases summary of deliberations/Canada Building Permits (December)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (December)

·       Peru Balance of Trade (December)

·       EARNINGS: Cisco, Hilton Worldwide, McDonald’s, Tenet Healthcare, T-Mobile US, Kraft Heinz

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China is expected to conduct a test launch of its new Long March-10A rocket, slated for use on lunar missions.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Australia Home Loans Q4/ Investment Lending for Homes Q4/ RBA Hauser Speech

·       China Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       India M3 Money Supply (January/23)

·       EARNINGS: Grab, Commonwealth Bank of Australia

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and how to offer greater support.  US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has indicated he intends to skip the meeting.

·       Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.  The meeting will focus on managing bilateral relations and delimiting the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as well as discussions of the continental shelf and mining.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at the Frankfurt Digital Finance Conference 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the Eugen Böhm von Bawerk Lecture at the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, Austria.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen gives closing remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives opening remarks at the Residential Policy Workshop 'AMLA and the reshaping of money laundering supervision in the EU' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England’s Executive Director of International James Talbot will give a speech at the London School of Economics on “Climate Change, the Economy, and the Financial System: Perspectives from the Bank of England.)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (December)

·       Italian Industrial Production (December)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Russia Balance of Trade (December)/ Business Confidence (January)/ Corporate Profits (November)

·       EARNINGS: Commerzbank, Dassault Systemes, TotalEnergies,  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Egypt will host the AI Everything Middle East and Africa Summit in Cairo through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The 39th Ordinary Summit of the African Union will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia through February 15th.  Heads of state will be gathered to discuss security and economic issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (December and January)

Thursday, February 12, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote linked to the 1988 Committee. Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil market report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran will participate in a conversation with Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Global Perspectives Event, Dallas, Texas.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (February/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (January/31)/ Existing Home Sales (January)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (February/06)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/12)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/11)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (January)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Airbnb, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Applied Materials, Wynn Resorts

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bangladesh heads to the polls, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party tipped to perform well, while Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as a significant force as voters eye a change from politics as usual. The party led by the students who drove the 2024 protests has failed to build momentum, however, and has become part of a Jamaat-led alliance.

·       Singapore Finance Minister Lawrence Wong delivers the 2026 budget statement in Parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (February)/ RBA Hunter Speech

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (November)

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (January)

·       India Inflation Rate (January)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: Softbank, Nissan

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to sip the meeting.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) in Brussels.  The Council will discuss EU military support to Ukraine, with a focus on cooperation in defense innovation, after an informal exchange of views with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov, who will be present in person.

·       There will be an informal meeting at an EU leaders retreat in Alden Biesen castle in Belgium.  The focus on the retreat, according to an invitation letter sent by EU President António Costa, is competitiveness and “strengthening the single market in the new geoeconomic context.”

·       There will be an informal meeting of the EU Employment and Social Affairs Council through February 13th in Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a lecture at a conference organized by the Commissione Europa of the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a speech at The World Ahead 2026 Sofia Gala Dinner in Sofia, Bulgaria.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on European monetary policy at Euro50 Group

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Business Investment Q4/ Goods Trade Balance (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Construction Orders Q4/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (January)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (January)

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Greece Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Current Account Q4

·       Germany Current Account (December)

·       EARNINGS: Hermès, L’Oreal, Mercedes-Benz, Schroders, Siemens, Swisscom, Thyssenkrupp, Unilever, British American Tobacco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (December)/ Mining Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, February 13, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The G7 Foreign Ministers are expected to meet on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Rio Carnival opening ceremony is held.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Retail Sales (December)

·       USA Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/13)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (January)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Argentina Leading Indicator (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech at the Kanagawa Keizai Doyukai.

·       South Korea Import Prices (January)/ Export Prices (January)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (January)/ Visitor Arrivals (December)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q1

·       China House Price Index (January)

·       Malaysia Current Account Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (February/06)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q4/ GDP (January)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: Kirin

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Munich Security Conference begins in Munich, Germany and runs through February 15th.

·       The UK Parliament goes into recess until February 23rd.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives a lecture at the Academia Europea Leadership in Barcelona, Spain.  Later, he gives remarks and participates in a Q&A at the Círculo de Confianza by Foment de Trebal in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks in a fireside chat at a Santander event in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Romania Industrial Production (December)

·       Turkey Current Account (December)

·       Hungary Construction Output (December)/ Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Spain Inflation Rate (January)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (December)/ Employment Change Q4/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Building Permits (December)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (September, October, November, and December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, February 14, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China New Yuan Loans (January)/ M2 Money Supply (January)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (January)/ Total Social Financing (January)/ Current Account Prel Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at a roundtable discussion on trade dependencies and global supply chains during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q4

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 15, 2026

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Lunar New Year begins.  China begins a weeklong holiday to celebrate the Year of the Horse.  Financial markets are closed in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, and China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion on European Competitiveness during the Munich Security Conference 2026 in Munich, Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

·       Israel Inflation Rate (January)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q4

The Global Week Ahead

The US and Iran Begin Talks to Avert a US Military Strike, The US Hosts a Critical Mineral Summit, Japan Holds Elections, and the ECB and Bank of England Meet on Interest Rates

February 1 - 8, 2026

Washington remains frozen and covered in “snowcrete,” but there is a lot going on here in terms of geopolitical activity.   First, it appears the US will be meeting with Iranian officials face-to-face this coming Friday in Istanbul to attempt to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program.  Up until this point, there have been no official face-to-face meetings between the two countries, but Iran, seeing the approach of a large US Naval force and President Trump’s demands for talks, relented.  The impact on oil/gas markets could be significant if an agreement is ultimately reached.

 Also this week, on Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is hosting a critical minerals ministerial meeting where a dozen or more foreign ministers will gather to hammer out the details of a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework.  The proposed Framework would ensure all signatories have access to critical minerals, facilitating greater and freer trade.  Among the confirmed attendees are India, South Korea, Australia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea, and Kenya. 

Finally, we would note that President Trump is scheduled to meet with Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Wednesday.  The aim of the meeting is to de-escalate tensions after Trump snatched Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro and began to bicker with Petro over drug interdiction policy.  A positive outcome of the meeting would further solidify Trump's policy of greater US engagement and influence in the Hemisphere.

Turning to Asia, on Sunday, Japan heads to the voting booth after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called snap elections.  Polls suggest Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) could score a landslide victory (estimates put it at more than 233 of the total 465 seats), giving her a strong hand to push forward with her “proactive” fiscal policy focused on bigger spending and tax cuts. 

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big events are in Frankfurt and London, respectively, as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet to consider further interest rate cuts.  Both are expected to hold off on any further rate cuts. 

In the US, the major economic releases this week include the jobs report on Friday.  This follows the JOLTS report (Tuesday) and the ADP report (Wednesday).  Also, out this week are the ISM indices on Monday (manufacturing) and Wednesday (services), and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday.  

In Europe, the January CPIs for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain are out this week.  Germany releases factor order and industrial production figures this week.  And we will also see retail sales and trade figures for most major Eurozone countries.

In Asia this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to decide on interest rates.  China releases January PMIs on Saturday, and in Japan, the Bank of Japan releases its summary of recent interest rate deliberations.  

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held virtually.

·       The UK assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

·       The Arctic Frontiers Conference is held in Tromso, Norway.

·       The International Submarine Cable Resilience Summit begins in Porto, Portugal.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents the country's annual budget for the fiscal year starting in April, with the focus likely to be on fields such as infrastructure development, green energy and steps to boost export competitiveness amid U.S. President Donald Trump's punishing 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Union Budget 2026

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The second round of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is scheduled to begin in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, February 2, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy before the Atlanta Rotary Club.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (December)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (January)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (January)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (January)/ Loan Officer Survey/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (January)

·       EARNINGS: Palantir, Disney, Tysons Food

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The travel period for China's Spring Festival celebrations will commence and last through March 13th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (January)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (January)/ Commodity Prices (January)

·       Bank of Japan releases its Summary of Opinions/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       China RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Singapore Business Confidence Q4/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Central Japan Railway, East Japan Railway

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Oslo Security Conference is held through February 3rd in Oslo, Norway.

·       French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu will face his third and last set of no-confidence votes in the National Assembly over his decision to pass the 2026 budget without a parliamentary vote.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Competitiveness Ministers (Internal Market and Industry), through February 3rd in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives a speech entitled “Talking ‘bout Next Generation” at the City & Financial Payments Regulation and Innovation Summit 2026 in London.

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Germany Retail Sales (December)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (December)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)/ New Car Sales (January)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ BoE Jackson Speech/ Nationwide Housing Prices (January)

·       Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Julius Baer

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Saudi Capital Markets Forum begins in New York and runs through February 3rd.  The country formally is opening its markets to foreign investors today.

·       The Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza is scheduled to open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Data Centres Association hosts a conference on cloud and data centers in Tunis through February 3rd.

·        

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (January)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (January)/ M2 Money Supply (December)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (December)

Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Global

·       The World Governments Summit begins in Dubai and runs through February 5th.  International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva is among the speakers.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro is expected to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington, D.C.

·       Netflix Inc. Co-Chief Executive Officer Ted Sarandos will testify before the US Senate’s antitrust subcommittee on Tuesday, taking the stage to assuage politicians’ concern about his company’s $82.7 billion deal for Warner Bros. and HBO.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the SC First Steps “Early Advantage: Foundations for South Carolina's Economic Vitality" event.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman takes part in a moderated conversation at the WSJ Invest Live event in New York

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (January)/ BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ Industrial Production (December)

·       USA LMI Logistics Managers Index (January)/Redbook (January/31)/ JOLTs Job Openings (December)/ JOLTs Job Quits (December)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (February)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/30)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (January)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (December)

·       Colombia Exports (December)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       EARNINGS: Amgen, Emerson Electric, Clorox, PepsiCo, Paypal, Pfizer, Prudential Financial, Willis Towers Watson, LATAM Airlines, Merck

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Singapore Airshow begins and runs through Sunday.  More than 1000 aerospace and defense companies from 50 countries will participate.

·       The Chinese Communist Party and Taiwan's Kuomintang party will recommence party-to-party talks, suspended in 2016, in China through February 4th.

·       The Indonesia Economic Summit, hosted by the Indonesia Business Council, holds a two-day annual event in Jakarta, inviting global business leaders and policymakers to discuss industry challenges for the development of Southeast Asia's largest economy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (December)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (February/03)

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (January)

·       Japan Monetary Base

·       The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Interest Rates and holds Press Conference/Australia Building Permits (December)/ Private House Approvals (December)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (December)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (January)/ Wholesale Prices (January)

·       India RBI Market Borrowing Auctions

·       EARNINGS: Nintendo, West Japan Railway, Mitsubishi Electronic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal video conference among EU Housing Ministers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at the Afore Consulting 10th Annual FinTech and Regulation Conference in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (January)

·       Romania PPI (December)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (January)/ PPI (January)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       France Inflation Rate (January)/ Budget Balance (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (January)

·       EARNINGS: Publicis Groupe

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (January)

·       Jordan PPI (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mozambican Heroes Day, a national holiday.

·       Solar energy executives gather in Nairobi for the Intersolar Africa business summit.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (January)

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts a Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington DC with multiple foreign ministers attending.  The State Department is circulating a draft Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Framework for attending countries to sign.

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify  before the House Financial Services Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

·       The New START Treaty expires.  The US and Russia treaty helped restrict the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

·       “The Muppet Show” returns being shown on ABC and Disney+. American culture is saved.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/30)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (January/30)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/30)/ ADP Employment Change (January)/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services PMI (January)/ ISM Services Business Activity (January)/ ISM Services Employment (January)/ ISM Services New Orders (January)/ ISM Services Prices (January)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/30)/ Total Vehicle Sales (January)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (January)

·       Colombia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       EARNINGS: Alphabet, Boston Scientific, Eli Lilly, Fox Corp, Johnson Controls McKesson, Stanley Black & Decker, Qualcomm, T Rowe Price, Uber

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones holds a fireside chat at the Investment Magazine 2026 Chair Forum.

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q4/ Unemployment Rate Q4/ Labour Costs Index Q4/ Participation Rate Q4

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (January)/ Ai Group Construction Index (January)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)/ RBA Jones Speech

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (January)

·       China RatingDog Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (January)/ M3 Money Supply (January/23)

·       EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Panasonic

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in an informal dinner and exchange of views with Maroš Šefčovič, Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security as well as Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency, in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ CPI Flash (January)/ PPI (December)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (January)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (January)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (January)

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (February)

·       EARNINGS: UBS, Credit Agricole, Handelsbanken, Santander, Watches of Switzerland

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       There is nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Angola Liberation Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (January)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Thursday, February 5, 2026

Global

·       Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify  before the Senate Banking Committee to present “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on monetary policy and navigating the economic environment after graduation at event hosted by the Clark Atlanta University School of Business.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Toronto.

·       Mexican Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (November)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (January)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/31)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/30)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (February/05)/ Fed Balance Sheet (February/04)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (January)

·       Colombia PPI (January)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q4

·       EARNINGS: Amazon, Allstate, Bristol Myers Squibb, Cardinal Health, Cigna, Compass, ConocoPhillips, KKR, Hershey, MetLife, News Corp, Thomson Reuter

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Malaysia Economic Forum begins in Kuala Lumpur. The forum will feature Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Siri founder and former Chief Technology Officer Tom Gruber, and senior figures from the private sector, including banking and capital market leaders. 

·       The ASEAN Treasury Forum takes place in Manila, Philippines through February 6th.

·       The 17th East Asia Conference on Competition Law and Policy, a two-day event hosted by Asian Development Bank Institute, begins in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/31)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/31)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (January)

·       Indonesia Full Year GDP Growth 2025/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Singapore Retail Sales (December)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       EARNINGS: Nippon Steel, Suzuki, Motor, Sony

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be in informal meeting of EU Environmental Ministers through February 6th in Brussels.

·       Today is Liberation Day San Marino.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)

·       Germany Factory Orders (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Romania Retail Sales (December)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (December)

·       France Industrial Production (December)/ HCOB Construction PMI (January)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (December)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (January)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (January)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (January)

·       EARNINGS: BNP, Vodafone, BBVA, Maersk, Shell

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Burundi Unity Day, a national holiday.

·       The RiseUp Summit, focused on startups, meets at the Grand Egyptian Museum in Cairo

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, February 6, 2026

Global

·       The 2026 Winter Olympics begin in Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo, Italy and runs through February 22nd.

·       FAO Food Price Index (January)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US is tentatively scheduled to hold talks with Iranian officials in Istanbul on Iran’s nuclear program.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook and supply-side inflation dynamics at a conference entitled:  Supply-Side Factors and Inflation: What Have We Learned? Being hosted by The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (January)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (January)/ Employment Change (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Ivey PMI s.a (January)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ Average Hourly Earnings (January)/ Participation Rate (January)/ Government Payrolls (January)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (January)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (January)/ Used Car Prices (January)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (February)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations (February)/ Michigan Current Conditions (February)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (February)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (February/06)/ Consumer Credit Change (December)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (January)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (December)

·       Colombia Cement Production (December)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (January)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Kazuyuki Masu gives a speech before local leaders in Ehime, Japan.

·       South Korea Current Account (December)

·       Japan Household Spending (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ BoJ Masu Speech/ Coincident Index (December)/ Leading Economic Index (December)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (January)/ Foreign Direct Investment (January)/ Industrial Production (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Retail Sales (January)/ Tourist Arrivals (January)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ Property Price Index Q4

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ Bank Loan Growth (January/23)/ Deposit Growth (January/23)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/30)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (January)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (January)

·       EARNINGS: Toyota

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollone gives a speech on the digital euro at an event organized by MEP Michalis Hadjipantela in Cyprus.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council Member ECB Martin Kocher speaks at the Club of Business Journalists in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks at the National MC Agency Briefing.

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ New Car Registrations (January)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (January)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (January)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (December)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (December)

·       Spain Industrial Production (December)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (December)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)/ GDP (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Real Wage Growth (November)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (January)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       EARNINGS: Societe Generale, Skanska

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Saturday, February 7, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 8, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NASA may launch a three American astronauts and a Canadian from the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.  This would be the first crewed lunar voyage in over 50 years. The 10-day flight around the moon and back will mark the second mission of Artemis, the successor to the Apollo programmed the cold war era. A moon landing is the goal of the next Artemis mission

·       Super Bowl LX will be played in Santa Clara, California.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds lower house elections.  Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for snap elections to solidify her party’s position.  More than 1,200 candidates are competing for 465 seats.

·       Thailand holds general elections for its 500 seat lower house. This is the first election since 2023.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Portugal holds second round election votes for president.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the IMF/Saudi Ministry of Finance 2nd AlUla Conference for Emerging Market Economies in Saudi Arabia.  

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The World Defense Show begins in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia through February 12th.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

FSOC Presents Its Annual Report to Congress, What Sort of Government Shutdown Will We Get?, Federal and State Regulators Battle Over Real Estate Escrow Accounts

February 2 - 6, 2026

 Washington is still buried under frozen snow – known here as “snowcrete” because it is like chiseling concrete to clear it away.  A number of schools remain closed (having been closed all last week, too), but the wheels of Congress and regulators continue to turn.

The big event of the week will be Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testifying before the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee to present the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) 's annual report.  

Both hearings look to be pretty wide open in terms of issues to discussed but we suspect a heavy focus of questioning will be on the Trump Administration’s evisceration of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and what the Administration intends to do with it going forward along with reform of the Federal Reserve (now that President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next chair and Bessent has repeatedly said the Fed needs to reformed), and the future bank regulatory framework.

Looking at last week, we noted an unusual fight emerging between federal and state regulators over real estate escrow accounts.   The fight comes at a sensitive time, as the cost of buying a new home has emerged as a serious political issue in this year’s midterm elections.  The disagreement revolves around the interest paid on escrow accounts used by mortgage holders to pay expenses such as taxes and insurance.  More than a dozen states require banks pay interest on escrow accounts.  

However, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) recently proposed a rule that would allow nationally chartered banks under its supervision to pay no interest and charge fees to escrow account holders. 

Elsewhere, we continue to track legislation introduced by Senators Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Dick Durbin (D-IL) to crack down on credit card swipe fees.  Despite President Trump’s endorsement, we are seeing little progress in the Senate for the legislation and little appetite among senators to get in the middle of this long and messy fight. 

Finally, Congress is in another shutdown, which they hope to fix either today or Tuesday, when the House votes on a continuing resolution to keep the government funded.  A deal was struck last week, but not in time for the House to vote on it.  But in our view, this might have become more complicated over the weekend, when Democrats won the traditionally Democratic 18th district in a special election to replace the recently deceased Representative Sylvester Turner (D-TX).  

While it was not a surprising outcome, it means Republicans now have a one-seat majority in the House.  For House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA), his life has become considerably more difficult because the odds of one Republican defecting to strike some sort of deal over something complete.  So, brace for more drama in the House this week – and the rest of the year as this number is going to go back and forth from a one seat to two seat majority numerous times.

Below is the full report on financial regulatory-related events this week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

 U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, February 3, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing entitled “The Truth Revealed: Hidden Facts Regarding Nazis and Swiss Banks."  Testifying will be:

• Neil Barofsky, Independent ombudsperson and partner at Jenner & Block LLP, New York, N.Y.

• Barbara Levi, Group general counsel for UBS Group AG and member of the Group Executive Board of UBS Group AG, Zurich, Switzerland

• Rabbi Abraham Cooper, Associate dean and director of global social action at the Simon Wiesenthal Center, Los Angeles, Calif.

• Robert Karofsky, Co-president for Global Wealth Management, president of UBS Americas and member of the Group Executive Board of UBS Group AG, New York, N.Y.

·       Tuesday, February 3, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Judiciary Committee’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights holds a hearings entitled “Examining the Competitive Impact of the Proposed Netflix-Warner Brothers Transaction.” 

·       Thursday, February 5, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “The Financial Stability Oversight Council’s Annual Report to Congress.”  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

House of Representatives

·       Wednesday, February 4, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Service Committee will hold a hearing on the Annual Report of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.  You can find the Committee’s Memorandum on the hearing HERE.

·       Wednesday, February 4, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Capital Markets will hold a hearing entitled “A New Day at the SEC: Restoring Accountability, Due Process, and Public Confidence.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency

Meetings & Events

The White House

·       Monday, February 2, Time TBD – The White House is expected to host a summit with executives from the banking and cryptocurrency industries to discuss a path forward for landmark crypto legislation currently working its way through the Senate.  

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, February 2, 12:30 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation on monetary policy before the Atlanta Rotary Club.

·       Tuesday, February 3, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the SC First Steps “Early Advantage: Foundations for South Carolina's Economic Vitality" event.

·       Wednesday, February 4, 6:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on monetary policy and the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami, Miami, Florida.

· Thursday, February 5, 10:50 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation and Q&A on monetary policy and navigating the economic environment after graduation at an event hosted by the Clark Atlanta University School of Business.

·       Thursday, February 5, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook and supply-side inflation dynamics at a conference entitled:  Supply-Side Factors and Inflation: What Have We Learned? Being hosted by The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Nothing significant to report.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Nothing significant to report.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Nothing significant to report.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Nothing significant to report.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Nothing significant to report.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Weekend Reads

Mexico – US Relations Get More Tense, Russia Hitting a Critical Inflection Point Internally, How American First Investment Pledges Are Structured – But Will It Work? , And the Impact of Inflation on Fertility

January 30 - February 1, 2026

Below are several reports and articles we read this past week that we found particularly interesting.  Hopefully,  you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

Americas

• ‘What the hell do we do with this issue’:  Mexico confronts Trump’s Cuba pressure   Politico

  President Donald Trump’s increasingly overt attempts to bring down the Cuban government are forcing Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum into a delicate diplomatic dance. Mexico is the U.S.’s largest trading partner. It is also the primary supplier of oil to Cuba since the U.S. seized control of Venezuela’s crude. Now, Sheinbaum must manage her relationship with a mercurial Trump, who has at times both praised her leadership and threatened to send the U.S. military into her country to combat drug trafficking — all while appeasing her left-wing party Morena, factions of which have historically aligned themselves with Cuba’s communist regime.

• Washington’s Sharpening Stance on Mexico   Americas Quarterly

  There is a deep shift underway in Washington—one that redefines Mexican organized crime not primarily as a law-enforcement problem or a bilateral cooperation challenge, but as a direct national security threat to the U.S. That redefinition is already reshaping U.S. policy tools, institutions, and expectations vis-à-vis Mexico, with potentially profound consequences for the bilateral relationship.

• Can anything halt Latin America’s lurch to the right?     Financial Times

  “It’s because of the expansion of the major criminal markets in the region,” says Council on Foreign Relations Fellow Will Freeman. “The huge increase in the size of the cocaine trade, the boom in illegal gold mining, for a time, the wave of human smuggling, and the way that has seeded a lot of new gangs and criminal outfits in different parts of the region that didn’t previously have to deal with this.” The dramatic capture of Venezuela’s authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, by US commandos in the early hours of January 3 has, if anything, reinforced the swing to the right in most of the region, pollsters say.

Is Russia at a Critical Inflection Point?

• Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Despite claims of battlefield momentum in Ukraine, the data show that Russia is paying an extraordinary price for minimal gains and is in decline as a major power. Since February 2022, Russian forces have suffered nearly 1.2 million casualties, more losses than any major power in any war since World War II. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by the spring of 2026. After seizing the initiative in 2024, Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of 15-70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, slower than almost any major offensive campaign in the last century. Meanwhile, Russia’s war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, growth slowing to 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms to drive long-term productivity.

•  Russian Economy’s “Unholy Trinity”: Recession, Inflation, Budgetary Crisis  Free Russia

  The Russian economic situation has reached a breaking point in 2026, facing the “unholy trinity” of challenges:

  • The ongoing budget crisis, which is set to exacerbate in 2026 due to a shortfall of oil and gas export revenues as well as under-collection of domestic taxes due to cooling of the Russian economy;

  • High inflation, which has not been brought under control - contrary to widespread public misconception, and which still requires maintaining prohibitively high interest rates thus diminishing Russians’ real incomes;

  • A looming recession, which seems inevitable given the lack of sources of potential major economic revival (no fiscal stimulus, an inability to access international investment and financial markets, expensive credit, shrinking corporate profits, etc.).

Geoeconomics 

• The America First investment pledges: How are they structured and are they realistic?   The Peterson Institute for International Economics

  In pursuit of President Donald J. Trump's "America First" agenda, the administration has pressured allies and partners to invest in US industrial and infrastructure projects. The White House has announced commitments by the European Union, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, several Gulf Cooperation Council countries, and others, to import specific amounts of goods and services from the United States and to make sizable investments on US soil. These agreements resulted from a more coercive US foreign policy than in the past. Because the administration is helping select the targets of foreign investment, it is embarking on a major expansion of US industrial policy—one paid for by allied countries. This Policy Brief shows that much about investment pledges, worth more than $5 trillion, remains unclear or aspirational. 

• Making Industrial Strategy Great Again   Foreign Affairs

  The author argues that the Trump administration has embraced industrial policy in all the wrong ways. Instead of organizing policy around missions—explicit public goals that define the problem to be solved and the outcomes to be delivered—and then aligning the state’s tools to get there, it has treated industrial policy as a set of sector deals to be cut and announced. It has stripped away conditions on government support for private industry that could ensure the socialization of rewards. The government has taken a ten percent stake in the semiconductor manufacturer Intel for $5.7 billion in CHIPS Act funding; a 15 percent stake in the rare-earth mining and processing company MP Materials for a $400 million investment; a five percent stake in Lithium Americas, the company developing the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada, through loan restructuring; and a “golden share” in U.S. Steel, granting the government permanent veto power over headquarters relocation and production offshoring. But it is using these unprecedented equity stakes not to steer strategy or secure public value but to extract value retroactively.  Industrial policy will fail, economically and politically, unless it is organized around clear missions to create public value. When the state socializes risks through public funding, the public must share in the rewards.
  

• Economic Statecraft Is Back.  Is America Ready?   War on the Rocks

  America still has enormous economic leverage. What it lacks is a plan. A new War on the Rocks series, launched with the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, explores how economic statecraft should be organized, led, and integrated into defense planning.

• Inflation and Fertility in the United States    Institute for Family Studies

  Over the past several years, American households have experienced one of the sharpest increases in the cost of living in decades. Rising prices for housing, childcare, healthcare, and education have coincided with heightened economic uncertainty following the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, U.S. fertility rates have continued their long-run decline, prompting renewed debate about whether economic pressures are reshaping family formation decisions. While discussions often focus on cultural change or shifting preferences, the affordability of raising children in an era of elevated and unpredictable prices may be an underappreciated part of the story.

The Global Week Ahead

The EU and India Close In On A Free Trade Deal, UK Prime Minister Travels to China and Japan, the US Congress Races to Avoid Another Shutdown, and a Big Week for Earnings and Interest Rates

January 26 - February 1, 2026

Our apologies for the late publishing of the Global Week Ahead – we are digging out from a massive snow and ice storm here in Washington, D.C.  And ee hope you had time to catch your breath after the breakneck pace of events last week in Davos. The geopolitical pace will be a bit slower, but several momentous events are happening this week.  

First, it appears the EU and India are very close to finalizing a landmark free trade deal. European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are traveling to New Delhi this week to co-chair the EU-India Summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where they are expected to sign the deal.   This is likely to be a big deal for the European automotive, aircraft, chemical, and machinery sectors amid ongoing trade tensions with the US and China.  

Also in Asia this week, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be traveling to Beijing and then Tokyo for bilateral meetings.  His China trip is the first visit by a UK Prime Minister in eight years and will re-establish the UK-China Business Dialogue, offering new opportunities for UK business that have been hampered by both trade spats and security concerns.  Starmer’s trip to Japan will also likely create major new business opportunities for UK businesses.

Here in the United States, markets are very closely watching two possible big events this week: President Trump is likely to announce his nominee for chair of the Federal Reserve Board, while the US Supreme Court may hand down its decision on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade regime.  

Prediction markets heated up late last week on the idea that BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder would be the Fed nominee.  As of now, the nominee pool seems to be Reider, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and possibly Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (despite repeated denials from the White House and Bessent – our long-shot bet still is Bessent being the nominee).  

While the Supreme Court is not formally scheduled to release any decisions this week (other than those released this morning – which did not include the trade case), they may break precedent and release it before their next scheduled decision release date of February 20th.  

Also in Washington this week, Congress is once again locked in a fight over funding the federal government and faces a possible shutdown at midnight Friday.   The latest tension point was not over actual budget funding disputes but over the Trump Administration’s ongoing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in Minneapolis, which resulted in the tragic shooting of a protester this past weekend.  Senate Democrats said they will not move on the Department of Homeland Security funding bill (ICE is a bureau of Homeland Security).  With a major snowstorm shutting down Washington on Monday and likely Tuesday, too, Congress will be working on a very tight timeline to avoid a shutdown.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, it is a big week for central banks and corporate earnings. 

The US Federal Reserve meets this week to discuss interest rates, and market consensus is that there will be no new rate cuts.  The Reserve Bank of Canada will also meet this week, and market consensus expects it to hold off on any new cuts.  Elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere, the Central Bank of Brazil and the Central Bank of Chile will meet this week to discuss interest rates (both are expected to hold).

In the US, the major economic reports out this week include durable goods orders on Monday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence on Tuesday, and delayed PPI reports for November and December on Friday.  It is also a big week for corporate earnings in the US this week with four of the seven “Magnificent Seven” reporting (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple) plus Exxon, Boeing, UPS, RTX, American Airlines, Northrop Gruman, Kimberly-Clark, United Health Group, General Motors, and Texas Instruments.    

We will be listening closely the both VISA and Mastercard’s earning call for reactions to President Trump’s recent demand to cap credit card interest rates at 10% (which banks issuing cards seem to have largely ignored or are considering the creation of a product line -  as both Citi and Bank of America are considering offering new cards capped at 10% for a year).

In Europe this week, the European Central Bank enters its quiet period ahead of its interest rate decisions on February 4th and 5th.  The major economic releases include the European Central Bank’s monthly consumer expectations on Friday, Germany’s  Ifo survey on Monday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, and CPIs on Friday.  Additionally, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK will be reporting GDP this week. 

In Asia, Japan will have a busy Thursday with the release of the consumer confidence, retail sales, industrial production, and Tokyo CPI reports.  China will be releasing industrial profit figures on Tuesday.  

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Monday, January 26, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the promotion and strengthening of the rule of law in the maintenance of international peace and security: Reaffirming international rule of law: Pathways to reinvigorating peace, justice and multilateralism.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby will visit South Korea through January 27th.  He will then travel to Japan for consultation meetings. Colby was a major contributor to the recently released US National Defense Strategy 2026.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (January)/ Current Account (December)/ Foreign Direct Investment (December)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (December)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (November)/ Chicago Fed National Activity Index (November)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (January)

·       EARNINGS: NUCOR, Crane

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, Leaders of the respective political parties will hold their first debate ahead of the February 8th  lower house election. The following day, official campaigning begins for the 465 seats up for grabs.

·       The Asian Financial Forum begins in Hong Kong.   Business and government leaders from across the region and the Middle East gather to discuss the global economy, network, and strike deals. Tariffs, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical friction will provide plenty of fodder over the two days.

· Today is India's Republic Day, celebrating the country's gaining independence from Great Britain in 1947.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Today is Australia Day, celebrating the arrival of Great Britain’s First Fleet in 1788 on the continent.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Coincident Index (November)/ Leading Economic Index (November)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (December)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The North Sea Summit will be held in Hamburg, Germany.  The Hamburg Declaration will be signed by ten European leaders pledging to build 100-gigawatt joint offshore wind projects (which roughly equals all energy produced by the UK).

·       The EU holds its 26th Accession Conference with Montenegro.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Parliament is expected to review its decision to freeze the ratification of the EU-U.S. tariff framework agreement, which was suspended following U.S. threats over Greenland.

·       NATO Secretary General, Mr. Mark Rutte, will address the European Parliament´s Committee on Foreign Affairs (AFET) and Committee on Security and Defence (SEDE) in Brussels

·       The Paris Haute Couture Fashion Week begins. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank  Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the “Outlook for 2026 in the light of multifaceted challenges worldwide” in Berlin, Germany.   Later, he discusses monetary policy before the German parliament.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher speaks at the OMFIF roundtable on monetary policy in London.

·       Spain PPI (December)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (January)/ Ifo Current Conditions (January)/ Ifo Expectations (January)

·       Poland Retail Sales (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (January)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (January)

·       EARNINGS: Ryanair

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Dubai will host the  Invest Africa New Year Reception: Trade, Investment, and the UAE-Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will give a speech on the economy and energy in Iowa.

·       The US is expected to formally withdraw from the Paris Climate Change Agreement.

·       Honduras’ new president, Nasry Asfura, will take office.  Asfura is closely aligned with President Trump, who endorsed his candidacy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (January)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (December)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (December)

·       USA ADP Employment Change Weekly/ Redbook (January/24)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (November)/ House Price Index (November)/ CB Consumer Confidence (January)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (January)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (January)/ Money Supply (December)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (December)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (January/23)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (December)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Boeing, UPS, RTX, American Airlines, Northrop Grumman, Kimberly-Clark, United Health Group, General Motors, Texas Instruments, PPG

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (January)

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (December)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (December)

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (December)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)

Europe

Political/Social Events

·       The EU – India Summit takes place in New Delhi.  European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They are likely to sign a massive new bilateral trade deal. Additionally, they will discuss EU-India relations, Russia’s war on Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the security situation in the Indo-Pacific.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcome remarks and a commemorative speech at the annual event marking International Holocaust Remembrance Day (IHRD) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Joachim Nagel joins panel on digital euro in Berlin, Germany.

·       Great Britain BRC Shop Price Inflation (January)

·       European Union New Car Registrations (December)

·       France Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (January)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: LVMH

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (November)

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will hold an open debate on the Middle East (the situation in Gaza).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Secretary of State Marco Rubio will testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the Trump Administration’s recent actions in Venezuela.

·       The Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) hosts the International Economic Forum Latin America and the Caribbean 2026 in Panama City, Panama through January 29th.  Brazilian President Luiz Inǎcio Lula Da Silva (Lula), Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz Pereira, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, Chilean President-elect José Antonio Kast, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, Guatemalan President Bernardo Arévalo, and Ecuadorian President Daniel Boboa will speak.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee finishes two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates, Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. EST

·       The Bank of Canada holds a meeting on interest rates followed by a press conference by BoC Governor Tiff Macklem.

·       Reserve Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (January/23)/ MBA Purchase Index (January/23)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (January/23)/

·       Colombia Business Confidence (December)

·       EARNINGS: Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, ASML Holding, AT&T, GE Verona, Corning, General Dynamics, Starbucks, VF Corporation, Progressive, ADP, IBM, Waste Management

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Indian Air Show begins in Hyderabad.  This is India’s largest air show, and India is the world’s third-largest aviation market. The country is expanding the number of airports they have now (160) to 350 by 2047.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan releases its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

·       Australia Inflation Rate (December)/ Quarterly RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q4/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (December)/ CPI (December)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (December)           

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia PPI (December)

·       India Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ M3 Money Supply (January/09)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Chief Economist Frank Elderson will give an introductory statement at the appointment hearing at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will give a presentation at the 4th Women’s Network Meeting of the Baden-Baden Entrepreneur Talks (BBUG) in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence FEB

·       Italy Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (January)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (December)

·       Russia PPI (December)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, January 29, 2026

Global

·       The UN Security Council will have closed consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) and another one on the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Conservative National Convention begins in Calgary and runs through January 31st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (December)

·       Canada Balance of Trade (November)/ Average Weekly Earnings (November)/ Imports (November)/ Exports (November)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (November)/ Initial Jobless Claims (January/24)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q3/ Unit Labour Costs Q3/ Factory Orders (November)/ Wholesale Inventories (November)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (January/23)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (January/29)/ Fed Balance Sheet (January/28)

·       EARNINGS: Mastercard, Caterpillar, Nokia, Altria, Nasdaq, Royal Caribbean Group, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, Apple, SanDisk, VISA

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is scheduled to travel to China, the first time a UK prime minister has traveled to China in eight years.  He will meet with President Xi Jinping to discuss a multitude of trade issues.

·       ASEAN's foreign ministers will gather in Manila,  the Philippines, to discuss regional issues, including ongoing South China Sea negotiations, the Thailand-Cambodia border crisis, and the political chaos in Myanmar.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ ANZ Business Confidence (January)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (January/24)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (January/24)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement/ Import Prices (December)/ Export Prices (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Australia Import Prices Q4/ Export Prices Q4

·       Philippines Full Year GDP Growth 2026/ GDP Growth Rate Q4

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Brussels through January 30th.

·       The EU-Morocco Association Council meets in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Piero Cipollon will participate in a virtual conversation at the New Year's Forum in Rome, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will participate in a fireside chat at the House of the Euro event on simplification in Brussels, Belgium.

·       The European Central Bank enters its quiet period before the February 4-5 interest rate meetings.

·       Great Britain Car Production (December)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (December)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (December)/ Economic Confidence Index (January)/ Participation Rate (December)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/23)

·       Hungary PPI (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)

·       Spain Retail Sales (December)/ Business Confidence (January)

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies (December)/ Loans to Households (December)/ M3 Money Supply (December)/ Economic Sentiment (January)/ Consumer Confidence (January)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (January)/ Industrial Sentiment (January)/ Selling Price Expectations (January)/ Services Sentiment (January)

·       Greece PPI (December)/ Retail Sales (November)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Total Credit (December)

·       Italy Industrial Sales (November)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (December)/ Jobseekers Total (December)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (September, October, & November)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (December)

·       EARNINGS: SAP, Sanofi, Eurofins, Remy Cointreau

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Bank Lending (December)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (December)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, January 30, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Funding for the US federal government is set to expire at midnight unless Congress comes up with an agreement to continue funding.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give a speech on monetary policy, supervision, and regulation, at the  SW Graduate School of Banking at SMU Cox: 161st Assembly for Bank Directors (Virtual)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participates in a moderated discussion before the University of Arkansas Center for Business and Economic Research 32nd Annual Business Forecast Luncheon.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (January)/ Gross Debt to GDP (December)/ Nominal Budget Balance (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ Net Payrolls (December)

·       Chile Copper Production (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Manufacturing Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Fiscal Balance (December)

·       Canada GDP (November)/ Budget Balance (November)

·       USA PPI (December)/ Chicago PMI (January)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (January/30)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (December)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (December)

·       EARNINGS: Exxon, Chevron, SoFi, Verizon, American Express, Charter Communications

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (January)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (December)/ Jobs/applications ratio (December)/ Tokyo CPI (January)/ Retail Sales (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Housing Starts (December)/ Construction Orders (December)

·       Australia PPI Q4/ Housing Credit (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)

·       Philippines PPI (December)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (December)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (December)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (January)/ Balance of Trade (December)

·       India Government Budget Value (December)/ Bank Loan Growth (January/09)/ Deposit Growth (January/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January/23)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will give a keynote speech at the Forum on Saving Investments Union, organized by PSO Knowledge and Portugal Fintech in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will give remarks at the Dreier-Club Abend event in Essen, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic speaks at a state conference on Croatia and OECD.

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Household Consumption (December)/ PPI (December)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q4

·       Germany Import Prices (December)/ Unemployment Change (January)/ Unemployment Rate (January)/ GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (January)/ Bavaria CPI (January)/ Brandenburg CPI (January)/ Hesse CPI (January)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (January)/ Saxony CPI (January)/ Inflation Rate (January)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Tourism Revenues Q4/ Tourist Arrivals (December)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (January)/ BoE Consumer Credit (December)/ Mortgage Approvals (December)/ Mortgage Lending (December)/ M4 Money Supply (December)/ Net Lending to Individuals (December)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q4

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Inflation Rate (January)/ Current Account (November)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (January)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q4/ Unemployment Rate (December)/ PPI (December)

·       Poland Full Year GDP Growth 2026/ Unemployment Rate (December)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (January)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (December)/ Industrial Production (December)/ Retail Sales (December)

·       Ukraine Current Account (December)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (December)/ Private Sector Credit (December)/ Balance of Trade (December)/ Budget Balance (December)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (January)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (January)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (January)

Saturday, January 31, 2026

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is technically the end of Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran’s term on the Fed Board, but he can continue to hold the seat for another year or until President Trump nominates someone to replace him.

·       Texas holds a special election to fill the seat for the 18th congressional district, which became vacant when Congressman Sylvester Turner (D) passed away in March 2025.  The district is considered a safe Democratic seat.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit Japan for talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in the first such visit by a British leader in three years. Starmer is reportedly due to travel to China with a British business delegation beforehand. Tokyo is hoping to coordinate its position on China with London.

·       Today is Nauru Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing PMI (January)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (January)/ NBS General PMI (January)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, February 1, 2026

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held virtually.

·       The UK assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of February.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Costa Rica holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presents the country's annual budget for the fiscal year starting in April, with the focus likely to be on fields such as infrastructure development, green energy, and steps to boost export competitiveness amid U.S. President Donald Trump's punishing 50% tariffs on Indian goods.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (January)

·       India Union Budget 2026

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q4

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.