The Global Week Ahead

Trump Makes 2nd State Visit to the UK, US-China Trade Talks Start Up Again, Qatar Holds Emergency Summit Following Israeli Attack,  and Multiple Central Banks Decide Rates This Week

September 14 - 21, 2025

This week, the most significant geopolitical events with market implications will be in Europe.  President Trump will travel to London this week for his second official state visit, which will involve a white tie dinner with King Charles.  For UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is still reeling from having to fire his Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, this past week for his close ties to Jeffrey Epstein, it is a high-stakes meeting as he seeks a deal on British steel and aluminum products, which are currently subject to 25% US tariffs.

Just prior to the UK meetings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid to discuss trade and mutual security matters.  Specifically, Bessent will discuss the US threat to impose tough new sanctions on any country purchasing Russian oil.  Considering China is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, these meetings will be crucial for markets trying to gauge the future of oil prices.  Bessent is also going to press China to buy more US agricultural products, especially soybeans.  Chinese purchases of American soybeans have plummeted, putting US farmers in tough economic straits.

Also this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s plans for Gaza and the overall situation in the Middle East following Israel’s attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar.   While he is in Israel, the Qatari’s are holding an emergency meeting of Arab leaders to discuss how best to respond to Israel’s bombing strike. 

Closer to home, we will be watching as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with President Claudia Sheinbaum.  The two leaders are expected to discuss not only mutual trade issues but also how to better respond to President Trump’s ongoing tariffs on both countries.

Here in Washington DC this week, we expect Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran to be confirmed Monday (or perhaps early Tuesday) for an open seat on the Federal Reserve Board which will give him the ability to participate in this week’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FMOC) meeting on interest rates – a sure vote for lowering interest rates by at least 25 basis points with Miran likely pushing for a 50-basis point cut.

This brings us to the global economic and financial radar screen for the coming week.  It is a big week for central bank meetings on interest rates.  The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Central Bank of Norway, Taiwan’s central bank, and several other central banks are all meeting this week on interest rates.

Looking at major economic releases this week, in the US, the key reports scheduled for Wednesday include August retail sales data, industrial production, and housing starts.

In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be speaking several times.  Germany releases the ZEW survey on Tuesday and PPI data on Friday, while in the UK, August inflation data, labor market data, retail sales, and consumer confidence are reported out this week.

And in Asia, China’s August economic data is out on Monday, including industrial output and August retail sales.  Japan releases CPI data on Friday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo XIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Rubio will then go on to London to join President Trump for meetings with UK officials.

·       US and Chinese officials began a new series of talks in Madrid, Spain on trade and the US’ threat of sanctions on China for buying Russian oil.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will also discuss boosting US agricultural sales to China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia region holds local elections.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to make significant gains. 

·       Russia holds regional elections for 21 gubernatorial elections and 11 regional parliamentary elections.

·       Russia and Belarus will conduct the strategic military exercise Zapad-2025 through September 16.

·       The  International Motor Show Germany (IAA) 2025 begins in Munich, Germany.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Qatar will host an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, Qatar, though September 15 in response to Israel's Sept. 9 attack on Hamas leadership in Doha. . 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Africa dispatched trade officials to Washington, D.C., for talks with the Trump administration on tariffs. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August) 

Monday, September 15, 2025

Global

·       The OECD hosts its Global Forum on Productivity Conference in Paris, France.

·       The BRICS Traditional Values Forum begins in Brasilia, Brazil and runs through September 17

·       The BRICS 1st National Public Health Institute Conference begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through September 17.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The 69th IAEA General Conference will be held in Vienna, Austria through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina’s President Javier Milei's official visit to Paraguay.

·       Canada’s Parliament returns to work following its summer break.

·       Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran is expected to be confirmed to become a Federal Reserve Board Governor.

·       The US Navy and Marine Corps will host UNITAS 2025, a military exercise off the coast of Florida and along the east coast of the US.  26 nations will participate including Argentina, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Jamaica, Japan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Singapore, Spain, and the United States.

·       Canada Post mail carriers are expected to escalate strike activity by stopping flyers and neighborhood mail deliveries.

·       The Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS) kicks off their annual conference in Maui, Hawaii.

·       The Beyond Earth Institute hosts a webinar to discuss “Navigating the New Space Policy Landscape: What the Latest Executive Order Means for Your Business.”

·       Today is Costa Rica's Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Guatemala's Independence Day, a national holiday

·       Today is Honduras’ Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Wholesale Sales (July)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States, South Korea and Japan will hold the trilateral Freedom Edge military exercises off South Korea’s southern island of Jeju through September 19.

·       Today is Respect for the Aged Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ FDI (YTD) (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2

·       India WPI Food Index (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers through September 16 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       A delegation of eight MEPs will speak to travel to Washington, DC to meet with members of Congress lawmakers and law enforcement officials through September 18.

·       NovaSpace kicks off their annual World Space Business Week in Paris, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a ‘Conversations pour demain’ on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Institut Montaigne in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the EIB Chief economists meeting in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syrian electoral bodies select members of new transitional parliament.

·       A Turkish court is expected to rule on a case that could remove the main opposition party leader, Ozgur Oze, from office due to procedural irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump arrives in London for meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well as for a dinner with King Charles. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join Trump.  The UK is hoping to break the deadlock over long-delayed quotas to lower tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S.

·       The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) will sign a free trade agreement with the EU on Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· Mexico will celebrate its Independence Day with a military parade planned in Mexico City. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) begin two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates.

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)

·       USA Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/13)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/12)/ International Monetary Market (IMM)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Papau New Guinea, a national holiday.

·       Malaysia will celebrate Malaysia Day, marking its independence. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter leads a fireside chat at the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney.

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with his Austrian, Slovenian, and Polish counterparts on the capitals of each country.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. The Council will start preparations for the October 23-24 2025 European Council by discussing an annotated draft agenda. In public session, the Commission will present a letter of intent on legislative programming and ministers will hold an exchange of views.  As part of the Council’s annual rule of law dialogue, ministers will hold in public session a horizontal discussion on general developments related to the rule of law situation in the EU. Ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries, namely Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Ministers from the four candidate countries will take part in the discussion.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will host a conference entitled “One Year After the Draghi Report” in Brussels.  She along with Mario Draghi will deliver the opening keynote speeches.

·       The 6th Accession Conference with Albania will take place in Brussels.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 4 ‘Green agenda and sustainable connectivity’, including Chapters 14 (transport policy), 15 (energy), 21 (trans-European networks), and 27 (environment and climate change).

·       Ukraine holds Defence Tech Valley 2025 in Lviv, Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (August)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (July)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

·       Germany Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Malawi holds general elections for president and parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The World Trade Organization holds its annual Public Forum through September 18.

·       The  International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants meets in Antibes, France through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The congressionally mandated deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to non-Chinese buyers arrives again (unless President Trump gives it another extension, which he is expected to do).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces interest rate decision followed a by Press Conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/12)/ Building Permits (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/12)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Leading Indicator (August)

·       The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China hosts the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, with military personnel and scholars expected to deliberate on regional security issues and cooperation. The three-day event is set to draw delegates from more than 100 countries and comes on the heels of a recent military parade in Beijing.

·       Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his annual policy address, in which he will talk about plans to steer the city's economy. Analysts are watching for a potential stamp duty cut on residential property purchases, while another topic may be efforts to attract more visitors from mainland China to help struggling local retailers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Singapore           Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones hosts a fireside chat at the Intersekt 2025 Conference in Melbourne.

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/05)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to unveil its proposal for the 19th round of Sanctions on Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to speak about Ukraine offensive to foreign envoys at round table in Moscow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference, jointly with Stanford's Hoover Institution, on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Piero Cipollone participates in the Associazione Bancaria Italiana's Executive Committee meeting (virtual).  Later in the day, he gives the keynote speech at the  De Nederlandsche Bank's Resilience Conference in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the German economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       The Eurofi Financial Forum 2025 will take place in Copenhagen through September 19.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate (September)/ Lending Facility Rate (September)/ CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Pan- African Global Trade & Investment Conference begins in Newark, New Jersey and runs through September 20.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Olympic Committee Executive Board begins a two-day meeting in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Clauda Sheinbaum.  Trade will be the dominant issue discussed and how to deal with US tariffs.

·       Today is Chile Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Business Roundtable is expected to release its quarterly CEO economic outlook for the U.S.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/17)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Earnings: FedEx, Darden Restaurants, M&C Saatchi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (July)

·       Australia Employment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels will hold a policy debate on a proposal to amend the European climate law to establish a binding intermediate climate target for 2040.  The proposal introduces a target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. It also outlines key elements and conditions that the European Commission must reflect in its legislative proposals for the post-2030 policy framework to enable member states to achieve the 2040 target.

·       All major French unions – including air traffic controllers – will join in nationwide strikes and demonstrations against austerity measures expected in the 2026 budget. in France are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision is announced and meeting minutes released.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives a  video message at the opening plenary of 1st edition of Global Leadership by Women Summit in Marseille, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel 'Noisy Experts? Discretion in Regulation' at 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a livestreamed MNI Connect discussion entitled 'Euro Area Growth and Inflation Outlook' in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a policy panel 'The Next Financial Crisis?' at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel joins the panel on Europe and Germany in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Liz Oakes, an external member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England, gives a keynote speech at the Cross Market Operational Resilience Group 2025 conference.

§  Vicky White, director, prudential policy, at the Bank of England, gives a speech at the Bank of America annual CEO conference.

·       Euro area Current Account (July)/ Construction Output (July)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, September 19, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council discusses Nicaragua.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks at an AI event in San Francisco, California.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

·       Canada Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/19)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan policy meeting on interest rates/Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/13

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Copenhagen, Denmark.  The finance ministers will discuss the Eurogroup work program until June 2026.  They will also discuss recent economic developments including an exchange of views with the Chair of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through September 20 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate on a panel discussion at EUROFI Financial Forum in Copenhagen, Denmark.  Later in the day, Board Member Anneli Tuominen will also participate on a panel discussion.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       France Business Confidence (September)/ Business Climate Indicator (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Liberal Democrat party conference begins in the south coast seaside town of Bournemouth, ending on September 23.

·       The 190th Oktoberfest beer festival formally begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum to replace the constitution that was approved in 2020.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.