Recommended Weekend Reads

Understanding Trump’s Latin American Military Buildup, The Secret and Massive Drug Smuggling Routes into the US, Young Adults Are Spending Less Time Together, and The Desperate Search for Safe Havens

October 31 - November 2, 2025

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them interesting and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

The Americas

• Understanding Trump’s Military Buildup in Latin America    Americas Quarterly Podcast

  The recent deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, the U.S. Navy’s largest aircraft carrier, has intensified speculation about Washington’s true objectives in the Southern Caribbean. In this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, we examine what’s really behind the Trump administration’s escalating military activity. Is it a hardline campaign against drug cartels, or the opening moves of a broader effort to pressure Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro? What do we know about dynamics within the Venezuelan military? And to what extent could this impact Washington’s relations with Colombia and other countries in the region? Our guest is Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program and head of the Future of Venezuela Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

•  From Posture to Purpose: Rethinking U.S. Strategic Aims in Venezuela    FIU Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy  

  The U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean reflects a strategic confusion between counter-narcotics and regime-change objectives in Venezuela. Current operations project power but lack coherence, risking escalation without achievable outcomes. A sustainable strategy must align U.S. means and ends, favoring intelligence, law enforcement, and targeted financial tools over military coercion. Even limited “surgical strikes” risk hardening regime cohesion, triggering regional instability, fueling migration flows, and creating governance vacuums with grave humanitarian consequences. To avoid these pitfalls while focusing on transnational criminal organizations, Washington should prioritize multilateral law-enforcement cooperation, expand Coast Guard and intelligence capabilities, and strengthen sanctions enforcement targeting the regime’s illicit revenue streams. Aligning coercive, diplomatic, and economic instruments toward realistic, proportional goals offers the only path to sustainable results without deepening Venezuela’s crisis on entangling the United States militarily.

• After Argentina’s Midterms, a New Chapter for U.S.-Argentina Relations  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Argentina’s midterms may also herald a new era of U.S. relations with the country and Latin America as a whole. In the weeks leading up to the election, the United States announced a major financial assistance package, giving Argentina access to a total of $40 billion in U.S. dollar currency swaps, with $20 billion coming from the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, and a further $20 billion from banks and sovereign wealth funds. In addition to this, the Trump administration announced plans to purchase Argentine beef, a move that was deeply unpopular with U.S. ranchers but offered a powerful signal of the importance Washington places on its relationship with Buenos Aires

• See the Secret Networks Smuggling Drugs to the U.S. From Latin America   The Wall Street Journal

  These interactive reports and accompanying maps show how demand in America for illegal drugs such as fentanyl and cocaine fuels sophisticated systems for smuggling them in. Traffickers deploy everything from fast-moving fiberglass boats to stealthy “narco-subs” to cargo ships to get their products to users without losing shipments to seizures or couriers to arrest. With decades of experience, according to U.S. counternarcotics officials, the traffickers are usually a step ahead of America and its allies in Latin American and Caribbean waters

 Youth and Family Trends and Their Future Impact on the Economy

• Cognitive Skills Beyond Childhood    The Economic Journal

  Data from a British birth cohort followed since 1958 show that cognitive skills early in life predict wages at age 50 better than cognitive skills at age 50. Early cognitive skills likely allow for higher educational attainment or on-the-job learning.
  

• Young Adults Are Spending Less Time With Friends       Institute for Family Studies

  In post-pandemic America, young adults are spending a record amount of time alone. But even before the pandemic, young adults began spending less time with friends. In 2010, young adults ages 18 to 29 on average spent 12.8 hours a week with friends. By 2019, that number nearly halved, falling to 6.5 hours a week. The pandemic exacerbated this trend with a low point of 4.2 hours a week with friends in 2020.  And while we’ve seen a slight increase since, socializing has not nearly recovered. Today, young adults spend just 5 hours a week with friends. Lingering effects of pandemic-era isolation are certainly at play, but the role of technology cannot be ignored.

•  Mind the Fertility Gap: Why people stopped having babies and how economic freedom can help     Institute for Economic Affairs

  n a new paper published by the Institute, British women are falling at least 0.4 children short of their own stated family goals, according to fertility data through 2011, with this gap likely widening as fertility now hits record lows of 1.44 while desired family size remains stable at 2.2.  New report shows how pro-natal policies that focus on cash incentives, such as baby bonuses, subsidies, and maternity pay, may have some short-term effect but are often found wanting and prohibitively expensive.  Evidence shows policies affecting economic freedom, including Labour market, childcare and housing liberalization, can have profound effects on fertility through their impact on work-family compatibility

Geoeconomics & Financial Markets 

• The Role of Single-Family Rentals in the U.S. Housing Market    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  When homeownership and home sales plummeted in 2010 in the wake of the housing market collapse, investors responded by purchasing single-family homes and renting them out to households that could not afford to buy such homes but still desired this type of housing. Subsequently, investor-owned single-family rentals (SFRs) increased as a share of total single-family properties, and they continue to increase as a housing supply shortage and higher mortgage rates make homeownership difficult for many first-time homebuyers. This blog post summarizes economic research that has been done on the role of investor-owned SFRs in the U.S. housing market.  Such research has found that the vast majority of SFRs are owned by small-scale investors. Properties owned by large-scale investors tend to increase prices of nearby homes,  while ownership by small-scale investors appears to have the opposite effect.  Research has also found that investor-owned SFRs expand housing options available to renters but may negatively impact renter welfare in terms of eviction filings4and rent increases.

• The Desperate Search for Safe Havens     Robin Brooks Substack

  Countries with low debt burdens are outperforming ones with lots of debt. The right chart above shows this dynamic. Since Jackson Hole, the Swedish Krona (red line) is the best performing currency against the Dollar, followed by the Norwegian Krone (orange line) and Swiss Franc (black line). The Euro (pink line) is flat against the Dollar, no surprise since it consists mostly of high-debt countries, with Germany’s recent move to soften up its debt brake and pursue big fiscal stimulus a major destabilizer for the region. The Japanese Yen (blue line) is down over two percent against the Dollar, no surprise given that gross government debt is 240 percent of GDP. The fact that Sweden is at the top of the pack makes sense. The Krona is massively undervalued (it’s at the same level against the Euro as during the global financial crisis), while Sweden has also managed to steer clear of endlessly rising debt levels that so bedevil the Euro periphery.

• As New Jobs In Finance Dry Up, New York City’s Fiscal Model Is Wilting   The Economist

  According to the Citizens Budget Commission New York state’s share of American taxpayers reporting more than $1m in income declined from 12.7% in 2010 to 8.7% in 2022. Such people paid $34bn in income tax to the state and city in 2022, a figure that would have been $13bn higher if New York’s share of millionaires had held up. Estimates from Goldman Sachs suggest that fully 10% of households in New York City with incomes of more than $10m established residency elsewhere between 2018 and 2023. As the ultra-rich have headed for the exit, the city’s employment growth has become concentrated in much worse-paid industries than finance. Since the end of 2019, New York has added more than 268,000 jobs in health care and social assistance, particularly home health care. Employment as a whole rose by just 220,000 over the same period, meaning that, if it was not for that industry, overall employment would have shrunk.

The Global Week Ahead

The U.S. Supreme Court Reviews IEEPA, Trump Hosts the C5+1, The Coalition of the Willing meets in Spain, and Markets Look for Data as the U.S. Government Goes into Week 6 Being Shut Down

November 2 - 9, 2025

In global markets, it is going to be another momentous week as politics collide with economic and financial markets.  The U.S. Supreme Court hears oral arguments over the legality of President Trump’s use of the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) – the basis for which the President launched global tariffs on “Liberation Day.”   While a final decision is unlikely for several months, markets will likely get a sense of which way the court is leaning based on the questions and comments from the bench during the hearing.   To add to the drama, President Trump has said he is likely to attend the hearing in person—a historic move, as no sitting President has ever attended arguments before the Supreme Court in the Court’s 235-year history.

Markets are also nervously watching as tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela continue to rise.  There were reports this past week that the Trump Administration has decided to attack military sites in Venezuela, as well as drug cartel operational sites.  President Trump has denied the reports.  However, US Naval assets continue to grow in the region as an aircraft carrier group arrives to bolster the US presence.

Also this week, President Trump will host the C5+5 Summit, bringing together the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at the White House.  The meeting is seen as a message to Moscow of the U.S.’s intention to become more engaged in the region.  And it is also another move by the U.S. to secure greater access to critical minerals, as well as uranium (of which more than 40 percent of global uranium mining comes from).  Also, this week, President Trump will host the Hungarian Prime Minister.

Meanwhile, Spain will host a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing – 35 countries dedicated to assisting Ukraine in defeating Russia.  The meeting will focus on ways to raise pressure on Russia to come to the negotiating table (as opposed to simply finding new ways of supplying military aid to Ukraine).

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the Bank of England will decide on interest rates this week while the Bank of Japan releases minutes from their last interest rate meeting.  

In the U.S., markets will continue to struggle to gather economic data as the U.S. federal government goes into its sixth week of shutdown (and with little chance of an agreement being hammered out in the near term).  However, the ISM indices are being published this week – the manufacturing on Monday and the services on Wednesday.  And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out on Friday. 

In Europe, Germany and France will release trade balance figures this week.  And aside from the Bank of England, Sweden’s Riksbank and the Norges Bank meet on interest rates. Plus, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Tuesday on the economic outlook.

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates on Tuesday, and Japan releases wage data on Wednesday. 

Also, this week will be another big earnings week, particularly for defense, tech, and pharmaceutical companies, including Palantir, AMD, Qualcomm, ConocoPhillips, BP, Saudi Aramco, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk, Rheinmetall, and Leonardo.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, November 2, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Daylight Savings Time ends in the US.

·       Mexico celebrates the Day of the Dead Parade in Mexico City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)         

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, November 3, 2025

Global

·       The COP30 UN Climate Change Conference begins in Belem, Brazil through November 21.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly participates in a moderated conversation at the Forum Club of the Palm Beach.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem attends a fireside chat in Toronto at the Logic Summit.

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (September)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (October)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)   

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ 2025- 26 Federal Budget released

·       USA S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total Household Debt Q3/ Fed Daly Speech/ Treasury Refunding Financing Estimates/ Construction Spending (August and September)/ Total Vehicle Sales (October)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will hold its annual financial summit – the Global Financial Leaders’ Investment Summit – until Wednesday. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is expected to address the main summit on Tuesday. BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Citadel’s Ken Griffin will sit for fireside chats.

·       The U.S. and South Korean defense ministers will hold their first joint visit in eight years to the Joint Security Area in the Korean Demilitarized Zone.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       New Zealand Building Permits (September)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Building Permits (September)/ Household Spending (September)/ Private House Approvals (September)/ Commodity Prices (October)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (October)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       South Korea S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       China Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Culture Ministers through November 4 in Brussels.

·       The NATO Operations Research & Analysis Conference takes place in Berlin, Germany.

·       Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin visits China for talks with his counterpart and Xi Jinping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a lecture at the Technological University Dublin in Dublin, Ireland.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá gives introductory remarks at Convención anual 2025 de la Asociación de Mercados Financieros 

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (October)/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (October)/ PPI (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/24)         

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (October)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)       

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ New Car Sales (October)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (October)/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       China's Vice President Han Zheng to visit Saudi Arabia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (October)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (October)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

Global

·       The UN’s Second World Summit for Social Development will be held from 4 – 6 November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New Jersey and Virginia will hold closely watched gubernatorial elections.  And New York will elect a new mayor.

·       Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne presents the annual federal budget to the House of Commons in Ottawa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision ice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on bank supervision and monetary policy at the 2025 Santander International Banking Conference, Madrid, Spain.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (October)/ Industrial Production (September)

·       USA Redbook (November/01)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (November)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/31)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August & September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (September)/ Factory Orders (August & September)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (August & September)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (October)/ Exports (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Management Dialogue, a forum organized by Nikkei and Swiss business school IMD, will take place in Tokyo over two days, bringing together business leaders including Foxconn Chairman and CEO Young Liu and Johnson & Johnson Chairman and CEO Joaquin Duato.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (October)

·       Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (October)          

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       India RBI Auction

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (November/04)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environment Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss European climate law and the climate target 2040.  They will also determine contribution levels for the UNFCCC.

·       Senior political directors from roughly 35 countries in the so-called Coalition of the Willing are set to meet Nov. 4 in Madrid to coordinate assistance for Ukraine. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at the Bulgarian National Bank conference "On the Doorstep of the Eurozone" in Sofia, Bulgaria.  Later, she participates in a press convergence during the Bulgarian National Bank Conference.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá speaks at Santander International Banking Conference in Madrid.

·       ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel gives speech on Europe in Berlin, followed by discussion with Economist Editor-in-Chief Zanny Minton Beddoes.

·       Romania PPI (September)

·       France Budget Balance (September)/ New Car Registrations (October)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (October)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/     Balance of Trade (October)

·       Italy New Car Registrations (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (October)

Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court hears arguments on the legality of about 60% of President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

·       President Trump will attend a two-day America Business Forum in Miami, whose attendees will include business, government, sports and entertainment figures.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (August)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/31)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/31)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ ADP Employment Change (October)/ ISM Services PMI (October)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/31)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Caroly Rogers will appear before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance.

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (October)

·       Colombia PPI (October)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Shanghai will host the 8th annual China International Import Expo (CIIE), featuring German pharmaceutical maker Bayer and American fashion brand Coach among 4,100 companies from 155 countries.

·       The Pitcairn Islands hold mayoral and island council elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report/ Employment Change Q3/ Unemployment Rate Q3/ Labour Costs Index Q3/ Participation Rate Q3/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry & Construction & Manufacturing Index (October)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (October)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (October)

·       China Rating Dog Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q3

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Director of Insurance Supervision Shoib Khan gives a speech at MarketforceLive Insurance Innovators Summit 2025.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Germany Factory Orders (September)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       France Industrial Production (September)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (October)/ BoE Khan Speech/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Serbia PPI (October)

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (November)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (October)

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (October)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (October)

Thursday, November 6, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. President Donald Trump will host the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan in Washington for the second C5+1 summit, his first direct engagement with the region's heads of state in a multilateral format.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christoper Waller gives a speech on central banking and the future of payments at the Bank of Canada 2025 Annual Economic Conference in Ottawa, Canada.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr participates in virtual “Community Development" discussion hosted by Fed Communities.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives lecture on “The Natural Rate of Interest" before event organized by the Goethe University Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks before an Economic Club of New York webinar.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Fixed Income Analysts Society, Inc.

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Consumer Finance Institute" before the “New Perspectives on Consumer Behavior in Credit and Payments Markets Conference 2025" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/31)/ Fed Balance Sheet (November/05)/ Fed Musalem Speech/ Initial Jobless Claims (October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October)/ Wholesale Inventories (August and September)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (October)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (October)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       India’s eastern state of Bihar holds the first phase of elections, a contest seen as a test of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (September)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (September)/ Overtime Pay (September)/ Reuters Tankan Index (November)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (October)/ Foreign Direct Investment (October)/ Industrial Production (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (October)/ Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (October)

·       Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (October)

·       Indonesia Motorbike Sales (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Sixth Partnership for Transatlantic Energy Cooperation (P-TEC) takes place through November 7th in Athens, Greece.  The meeting brings together government officials and industry leaders to discuss energy security and affordability, infrastructure projects, and investment opportunities.

·       The UK Parliament goes into recess until November 11.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank holds the second day of their conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates in a policy panel at 26th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference "The Evolving Landscape of Global Trade and Financial Integration" organized by the International Monetary Fund in Washington D.C,

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives: opening remarks at the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a webinar "Euro area current policy challenges" organized by Natixis CIB Research.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a panel discussion at 20 Jahre Finanzstabilitätsbericht in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (October)/ Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Germany Industrial Production (September)/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

·       Romania Retail Sales (September)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q3/ HCOB Construction PMI (October)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (September)

·       Spain Industrial Production (September)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (October)

·       Euro Area  HCOB Construction PMI (October)/ Retail Sales (September)/ ECB Buch Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (October)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (October)/ BoE Interest Rate Decision/ BoE Monetary Policy Report

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/31)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (October)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, November 7, 2025

Global

·       G20 Finance and Health Ministers will hold a virtual meeting to discuss mobilizing financing mechanisms to combat health challenges globally.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán meets Donald Trump at the White House to discuss a path to another US-Russia meeting and to seek an exemption from US energy sanctions.

·       U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to announce major changes to how the Pentagon acquires and transfers weapons to foreign countries.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron visits to discuss the repatriation of ancient Mexican codices.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on AI and the Economy at the Euro20+, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Federal Reserve Governor Stephen I. Miran gives a speech on Stablecoins and Monetary Policy at the BCVC Summit 2025, New York, N.Y.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the ECB Conference on Money Markets 2025 organized by the European Central Bank.

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (November)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (November/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (September)/ Non-Farm Payrolls (September and October)/ Unemployment Rate (September and October)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September and October)/ Participation Rate (September and October)/ Government Payrolls (September and October)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September and October)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (September and October)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September and October)/ Used Car Prices (September and October)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (October)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Brazil PPI (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (October)/ Auto Exports & Production (October)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (October)/ Employment Change (October)/ Participation Rate (October)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (October)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (October)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (November/01)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (November/01)        

·       Philippines Industrial Production (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (October)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)/ Current Account Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (September)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Singapore           Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/31)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       New Lady Mayor of the City of London Dame Susan Langley takes office at the Silent Ceremony at Guildhall, becoming the City’s 697th mayor and the first to use the title Lady Mayor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a fireside chat at the Bundesbank Euro20+ event in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England’s BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speaks in the national Monetary Policy Committee agency briefing.

·       Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta will participate in a panel at the European Central Bank Conference on Money Markets in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ New Car Registrations (October)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (October)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (October)       

·       Turkey Inflation Report/ Treasury Cash Balance (October)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Current Account (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (September)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (September)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)/ Vehicle Sales (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 8, 2025

Global

·       In Bolivia, Rodrigo Paz assumes the presidency, marking a political shift to the right after more than two decades of rule by the Movement for Socialism party.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Cambodia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (October)

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-CELA (Community of Latin America and Caribbean States) Summit begins in Santa Marta, Colombia and runs through November 10.  Hosted by Colombian President Gustavo Petro, the summit will focus trade, investment, and green and digital transition as well as fighting organized crime and human trafficking.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Start of Week 5 of the Government Shutdown, President Trump has a New CFTC Chair Nominee, and, Aside From That, It’s Going to Be a Pretty Quiet Week

October 27 - 31, 2025

The Federal Government is entering its 5th week of being shut down.  There is little movement in Congress that we can discern to figure out how to get a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government and get the governmental engine running again.

 At this point, we see only three key dates that could serve as a trigger for Congress to begin moving toward a deal.  They are:

• October 24 – This past Friday marked the first full paycheck date that federal employees (except military) will miss.  This includes TSA Agents at airports and air traffic controllers (NOTE: We have been traveling in the last week and asking TSA Agents their thoughts, and it is clear we will soon start seeing them leaving their jobs for anything that gives them a paycheck – meaning, we will see significant slowdowns at airports).

• November 1 – Likely early/mid next week, Open Enrollment for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will begin, and it will show increasing annual insurance costs.  Meaning, voters may become more focused and vocal on the issue Congressional Democrats are trying to force into the CR. 

• Late November – The House-passed Continuing Resolution expires on Nov. 21 (the Friday before Thanksgiving), and the fact that TSA workers will have missed more than a month of pay will likely result in departures of staff, causing significant delays at airports just before the Thanksgiving holiday.

Until then, there is not much going on with U.S. financial regulators.  We would note that Travis Hill, the Acting Chair of the FDIC, will get his confirmation hearing this coming Friday.  But only if the Senate Banking Committee holds the hearing. Last week, the Banking Committee was scheduled to hold an important hearing bringing together all the prudential regulators to talk about potential regulatory reform, but because of the shutdown, the hearing was cancelled.

Also, we would note that President Trump has nominated Mike Selig to the next Chair of the CFTC.  Selig is currently the chief counsel for the Securities and Exchange Commission’s crypto task force in addition to advising SEC Chair Paul Atkins.  He would replace Brian Quintenz as the nominee (as Quintenz’s nomination was somewhat mysteriously pulled by the White House just as he was about to get his confirmation hearing in the Senate Agriculture Committee).

Below are the few events we could find scheduled for the week ahead.  Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Thursday, October 30, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a confirmation hearing to consider the nominations of the following individuals: Joseph Gormley to be President, Government National Mortgage Association, Department of Housing and Urban Development; Francis Cassidy to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development; Paul Hollis, to be Director of the Mint, Department of Treasury; Bryce McFerran, to be First Vice President, Export-Import Bank of the United States; and Travis Hill, to be Chairperson of the Board of Directors, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

House of Representatives

·       The House remains out of session until the Senate reaches a compromise on the federal budget continuing resolution.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday & Wednesday, October 28 – 29 – The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

·       Thursday, October 30, 9:55 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a pre-recorded speech at the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Outreach Meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Tuesday, October 28, 3:20 p.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will discuss agency priorities and its influence on the future of banking and financial innovation at the Money 20/20 USA Conference in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday & Wednesday, October 28 & 29 – SIFMA holds its National Conference on the Securities Industry at New York Law School.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Monday, October 27, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds an event entitled “What’s up with stablecoins after the GENIUS Act?”

·       Wednesday & Thursday, October 29 - 30 – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds its 14th annual Housing Center Conference in Washington, D.C.

 Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Travels to Asia for the APEC Leaders Meeting and the ASEAN Summit, Trump Will Meet with Japan’s PM Takaichi and China’s Xi Seeking Trade Deals, and it is a Big Week for US, EU, Japan, and Canada Central Banks

October 26 - November 2, 2025

Geopolitics and global markets will be keenly focused on Asia this week.  President Donald Trump travels to Malaysia this weekend at attend the APEC Leaders meeting.  While there, the President is presiding over the signing of a peace deal he helped broker between Cambodia and Thailand and then working to hammer out trade deals with Malaysia, Vietnam, as well Cambodia and Thailand. 

From there, President Trump travels to Japan – his fourth presidential trip there – to meet with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.  Again, the President is hoping to hammer out a framework for a trade deal.  The major sticking point between the US and Japan is whether Prime Minister Takaichi will hold by a pledge her predecessor made of giving $550 billion to the US to fund unspecified projects.

From there, Trump travels to Gyeongju, South Korea for the ASEAN Leaders Summit and a much-anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese officials to iron out a “framework” of an agreement (but not an overarching deal) in advance of the Trump-Xi meeting. 

Bessent reportedly finalized a deal on TikTok and may have gotten an extension of rare earth sales to the US following China’s recent clampdown on sales globally.

Finally, we would note Trump is expected to meet with South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit to work further on a US-South Korea trade deal.

Here in Washington, the federal government shutdown is going into its 5th week.  We would note that this past Friday, air traffic controllers, TSA Agents, and other key government workers experienced their first full paycheck not arriving.  As we get closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, we believe pressure will grow on Congress to hammer out some sort of deal to reopen the government.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, this is going to be a big week for central banks.  The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meet this week on interest rates.  Markets are watching and listening not only for any rate moves but for assessments on how the trade wars might be impacting the longer-term inflation outlook globally.

This week is also a big week for corporate earnings with Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Airbus, Boeing and number of large cap companies reporting.

With the federal government shutdown still in place, there will not be much other major economic reports in the US (Q3 GDP was scheduled to be reported).  We will get the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report on Tuesday.

In Europe, we will get October CPIs and Q3 GDP reports from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, along with the PCE report, plus consumer confidence reports from Germany and Italy and the greater Eurozone on Thursday.

In Asia, China releases October PMIs on Friday along with September retail sales.   Japan releases the Tokyo CPI on Thursday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia. Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN’s 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·        In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summertime – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 27, 2025 

Global

·       Vietnam hosts the United Nations’ global convention on cybercrime.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will make an official visit to Japan through Wednesday. While there, he will hold an official summit with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where Trump hopes to wrap up a US-Japan trade deal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)   

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Beijing Financial Forum begins and runs through Friday. More than 400 delegates from 30 countries are expected to attend. People's Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng and top securities regulator Wu Qing are reportedly due to speak.

·       North Korea's top diplomat Choe Son Hui visits Moscow for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)/ FDI (YTD) (September)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock holds a fireside chat at the ABE annual dinner in Sydney, Australia.

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet in Luxembourg.

·       NATO conducts annual nuclear exercise Steadfast Noon.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at a joint ECB and EUI banking governance high-level seminar "Board of the Future" in Florence, Italy.  ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen also will speak.

·       Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ Loans to Companies (September)/ Loans to Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)/ ECB Tuominen Speech

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (October)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

·       Greece Total Credit (September)

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)/ BoE Oakes Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Future Investment Initiative, an annual investment event organized by the FII Institute, a non-profit organization run by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, begins in Riyadh.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates today and Wednesday.  Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/24)/ House Price Index (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)         

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula President von der Leyen will travel to Stockholm to participate in a meeting with the Nordic Leaders and the SG of the Nordic Council of Ministers.  She will meet with Andreas Norlén, Speaker of the Riksdag and then deliver a speech at the 77th session of the Nordic Council.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (September)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

·       Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Tanzania holds general elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Zimbabwe    Inflation Rate (October)

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The suspension of increased US tariffs on Mexico ends.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces interest rates.  Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference in the afternoon.

·       US MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/24)/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/24)/ Decision/Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)

·       Brazil Bank Lending (September)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

·       Colombia Business Confidence (September)

·       EARNINGS: Boeing, Alphabet, Meta

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-Venezuela Business Forum takes place in Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ US President Trump-China President Xi Meeting

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3  

·       Malaysia PPI (September)

·       Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Singapore     Import Prices (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

·       India M3 Money Supply (October/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Netherlands holds snap parliamentary elections following the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition government in June.

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz travels to Ankara, Turkey for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets at the Banca d’Italia in Florence through Thursday, October 30.

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (September)

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals (September)/ Mortgage Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

·       Italy PPI (September)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       EARNINGS: Deutsche Bank, Adidas, UBS, BASF, Mercedes-Benz, Airbus, TotalEnergies, AB InBev, Stellantis, Lufthansa, Volkswagen

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), and another draft resolution on Colombia.

· The International Energy Agency publishes an annual World Energy Outlook on global energy prospects.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC CEO Summit.  Trump hopes to hammer out a partial trade deal with China, especially around rare earth export controls China has recently instituted.

·       The US’ 25% tariffs on heavy trucks enters into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a pre-recorded speech at the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Outreach Meeting.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Net Payrolls (September)

·       Chile Copper Production (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gives welcoming remarks at The Evolving Landscape of Bank Funding conference hosted by the Dallas Fed.

·       USA EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/29)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September & October)/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3  

·       EARNINGS: Amazon, Apple

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Defense chiefs from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations will meet in Kuala Lumpur through Nov. 2 for the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting. The gathering comes as the bloc expands its cooperation framework, with Germany and Turkey joining the ADMM observer program for the 2024-2027 term.

·       The Japan Mobility Show, formerly known as the Tokyo Motor Show, will be held through Nov. 9 at Tokyo Big Sight. The theme of this year's event is: "A unique opportunity to explore mobility's future." A record number of over 500 companies and organizations will participate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan begins a two-day board meeting on the economy and interest rates.

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/25)/ Stock Investment by

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

·       Australia Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3

·       Philippines Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

·       Thailand Industrial Production (September)

·       EARNINGS: Panasonic, Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways, Apple, Samsung Electronics

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank concludes two days of meetings in Florence and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference hosted by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 4:15 p.m. CET.

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Consumer Confidence (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

·       Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

·       Germany Unemployed Persons (October)/ Unemployment Change (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Sales (August)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Russia GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (September)

·       Zambia Inflation Rate (October)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 31, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Bosnia and Herzegovina, followed by a debate. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

·       G7 energy and Environment Ministers meet in Canada.

·       The International Institute for Strategic Studies holds its Manama Dialogue Conference.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       USA Fed Logan Speech/ Chicago PMI (October)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/31)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ PCE Price Index (September)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (October)

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

·       Argentina     Tax Revenue (October)

·       EARNINGS: Chevron, ExxonMobil, T. Rowe Price, Weyerhaeuser, Canadian National Railway, Ingersoll Rand, AbbVie, Aon

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Leaders Meeting takes place in South Korea.  Leaders of the 21-member organization are expected to meet over two days.  President Trump is expected to hold talks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. South Korea is also hoping to use the meeting to promote foreign investment.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)           

·       South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Tokyo Core CPI (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

·       Australia PPI Q3/ Housing Credit (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (October)

·       China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (September)/ Business Confidence Q3

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Thailand Current Account (September)/ Private Investment & Consumption (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (October)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       India Government Budget Value (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/17)/ Deposit Growth (October/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/24)        

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

·       EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Mitsubishi Electric,

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia holds local elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Banca d’Italia will host the 11th edition of their International Macroeconomics Workshop, jointly organized with the Bank of England and Banque de France, at their base in Rome.

·       Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ MPC Meeting Summary

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)   

·       Hungary PPI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

·       France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (October)

·       Euro Area     Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI (October)

·       Greece Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (October)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

·       Ukraine Current Account (September)

·       Sri Lanka PPI (September)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cote d’Ivoire holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

·       South Africa Balance of Trade (September)/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 1, 2025

 Global

·       Sierra Leone assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, November 2, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Daylight Savings Time ends in the US.

·       Mexico celebrates the Day of the Dead Parade in Mexico City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (August)     

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reading

Looking at U.S. - China Policy Challenges in Advance of the Xi-Trump Meeting, Will the AI Data Center Boom Threaten the Trump Manufacturing Revival?, and Looking at the Supply Chain Chokepoints in Quantum

October 24 - 26, 2025

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them both interesting and useful.  Have a great weekend.

A Look at Major Policy Issues for Both the U.S. and China

• China’s Two Economy Problem    Semafor

  At a glance, China’s export-focused manufacturing sector is buoyant, racing away from the US and other advanced economies in areas including batteries, robotics, and biotechnology. And yet its domestic economy is in deep crisis, suffering from spiraling levels of joblessness, plunging consumer confidence, and falling business investment in the midst of a real estate collapse.  To understand China is to believe all these things to be true. It is an economy moving fast and slow at the same time, a tech superpower that creates opportunities for PhD scientists but not its underclass of rural workers, a nation that manufactures a third of everything made in the world but can’t stir demand at home. Its growth model is so lopsided it is unbalancing the global economy. In short, China is at war with itself; taking the long view, the current US-China trade spat is a sideshow.

• How China Raced Ahead of the U.S. on Nuclear Power     New York Times

  While U.S. nuclear construction costs skyrocketed after the 1960s, they fell by half in China during the 2000s and have since stabilized, according to data published recently in Nature. (The only two U.S. reactors built this century, at the Vogtle nuclear plant in Waynesboro, Ga., took 11 years and cost $35 billion.) China’s nuclear companies build only a handful of reactor types, and they do it over and over again. That allows developers to perfect the construction process and is “essential for scaling efficiently,” said Joy Jiang, an energy innovation analyst at the Breakthrough Institute, a pro-nuclear research organization. “It means you can streamline licensing and simplify your supply chain.”

• Taiwan Is Not for Sale       David Sacks/Foreign Affairs

  When U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the coming weeks and months—likely starting next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea—the immediate focus will be on how to de-escalate the latest round of export restrictions and tariff threats that the United States and China have wielded against each other. But Trump and Xi are also likely to consider a more ambitious deal to reset bilateral relations, which would seek not only to stabilize economic ties but also to reevaluate geopolitical flash points—above all, Taiwan.

• How U.S. Can Outcompete China   Daniel Bob/RealClearWorld

  Leadership in critical technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, semiconductors, robotics, advanced materials, biotechnology, and aerospace will determine who leads the world economically and strategically in the decades ahead. These technologies spur productivity gains, provide supply chain resilience, and shape military strength that sustain national security and prosperity.

• China Against China     Jonathan Czin/Foreign Affairs

  Thirteen years after Xi Jinping ascended to the top of China’s leadership hierarchy, observers in Washington remain deeply confused about how to assess his rule. To some, Xi is the second coming of Mao, having accumulated near-total power and bent the state to his will; to others, Xi’s power is so tenuous that he is perpetually at risk of disgruntled elites ousting him in a coup.

Technology, Trade, Immigration, and Geopolitical Power

• The Fiscal Impact of Immigration       The Manhattan Institute

  Using a methodology aligned with the congressional budget window, this report estimates the fiscal, economic, and population effects of immigrants by age, education, and category of admission. It updates previous Manhattan Institute research by incorporating more recent census data, more precise life-expectancy and fertility adjustments, economic and capital stock growth, and the fiscal effects of the descendants of immigrants. This report estimates fiscal impact in nominal dollars over a 10- and 30-year horizon. This report also updates and fixes several assumptions from previous research on the fiscal impact of immigrants, including the calculation method for interest on the debt and correctly adjusting tax credits for inflation. It uses an updated method for accounting for public-goods spending.  Overall, the average new immigrant reduces the federal budget deficit and expands the economy, but this is not true of all categories of immigrants. Immigrants without college degrees receive more government benefits than they pay in taxes, even when we consider only their preretirement years. By contrast, immigrants who finished college or obtained an advanced degree contribute millions of dollars more in federal taxes than they receive in government benefits, and they save substantial amounts of interest on the debt while growing the economy.

•  AI Data Center Boom Threatens Trump’s Manufacturing Revival   Bloomberg

  The AI boom is coming to America’s industrial heartland, which speaks to how the economy is being transformed—even propped up—by a surge in investment in software, chipmaking and data centers. But the Lordstown plant’s reinvention raises the question: Is the exuberance around the technology that Trump has enthusiastically endorsed getting in the way of his goal of making America great again at churning out things like gasoline-powered cars, steel and furniture? Access to capital, power and people is key to the success of any construction or manufacturing project—and right now AI is gobbling up all three.

•  The Supply Chain Chokepoints in Quantum      War on the Rocks

  As quantum technologies move from proof-of-concept to deployment, supply chain resilience becomes just as critical as qubit coherence times. Resilience includes redundancy, domestic capacity, and timely alternatives when foreign manufacturers face disruptions or reprioritize their customers. Expertise and capital are key to driving technological innovation, but mean little if a company or research lab does not have access to the necessary inputs and reliable supply chains.  Lack of access to one aspect of the supply chain can grind further research and development to a standstill, a red flag for investors and potential researchers. If the United States is to remain on the leading edge of quantum technologies, ensuring companies, government labs, and academic projects can consistently access critical supplies is a prerequisite.

CORRECTED: The Global Week Ahead

China Holds the 4th Party Plenum, Japan Elects a New Prime Minister, Rubio to Meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, the ASEAN Summit Begins, and It’s a Big Earnings Week

October 19 - 26, 2025

It is going to be a week of momentous meetings, likely to set the direction for a number of issues globally for the coming year.  First, the Chinese Communist Party is holding its 4th Party Plenum in Beijing.  The meetings come at a critical time for China as the economy continues to struggle to regain its footing, eight senior military officials were either arrested or kicked out of the Party last week, and President Xi continues to battle President Trump over tariffs and access to rare earth minerals.

Meanwhile, following President Trump’s meeting Friday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov in Budapest to resume discussions on how to bring either a ceasefire or an outright end to the war in Ukraine.  Late this weekend, it was reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone call with President Trump this past week, reiterated his demand that Ukraine surrender large portions of occupied land in return for peace.  Trump reportedly, in turn, urged Zelensky to consider the terms.  Trump also denied Zelenskyy and Ukrainian military forces access to the much-sought Tomahawk missiles.

In the Middle East this week, Vice President J.D. Vance is expected to travel to Israel Tuesday to push for further implementation of the Gaza peace agreement while US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trum[‘s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is expected to meet with Qatari and Israeli representatives on the next steps on the shaky plan.  The past week saw continued violence in Gaza as Hamas began going after rival factions, executing dozens of fighters and leaders as they struggle to retain some semblance of control in the region.

This coming Sunday, the ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.  President Trump is expected to attend and preside over the peace signing ceremony between Thailand and Cambodia.   Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss ways to de-escalate new tensions between the US and China, which sprang back up last week when China announced a new ban on critical mineral sales globally.

This all comes in advance of a much-hoped-for meeting between Trump and President Xi in two weeks at a second ASEAN Summit, this time being held in Gyeongju, South Korea between October 31-November 1.  But there is concern in the markets about the meeting and if it might be called off at the last meeting as much depends on how well the meeting between Secretary Bessent and Vice Premier He go.

Also happening this week will be the election of Japan’s new Prime Minister on Tuesday.  It appears that Sanae Takaichi has successfully put together a new coalition with Japan’s Innovation Party with her Liberal Democratic Party, which will make her Japan’s first female prime minister.  She will attend the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur and then meet with President Trump on October 27-29 in Japan to discuss finalizing a trade deal and then attend the second ASEAN Summit in South Korea on October 31.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, the big event will be in the US, where, despite the ongoing government shutdown, government economists have been called back to work to assemble the September CPI numbers for release on Friday.   All other government data releases are being delayed because of the shutdown so markets remain dependent on private sector data. The Conference Board releases its leading index on Monday, and the University of Michigan releases its consumer sentiment report on Friday.  Canada’s CPI is out Tuesday.

Turning to Europe, markets will be listening closely to several speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde.  Also, the UK will be releasing September inflation figures on Wednesday and retail sales and consumer confidence numbers on Friday.  Germany and France have manufacturing PMIs on Friday. 

In Asia, China will be releasing Q3 GDP and September economic figures on Monday.  Japan releases trade data on Wednesday and CPI on Friday.  And South Korea’s central bank interest rate decision is on Thursday.

Finally, we would note this is going to be a big earnings announcement week as market participants will get a deeper understanding of how the trade wars and the risk of inflation are impacting corporations globally.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

·       The EU-Iraq Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Government shutdown is expected to continue throughout the week ahead.

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese travels to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump, their first face-to-face meeting. Albanese is expected to seek reassurances over America's commitment to the AUKUS submarine deal and promote access to Australia's strategic materials such as rare earths as leverage in the talks with the American leader.

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Hungary to discuss Ukraine.

·       Today is Heroes’ Day in Jamaica, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada PPI (September)/ Raw Materials Prices (September)/ BoC Business Outlook Survey

·       USA CB Leading Index (September)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (September)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China holds the 4th Chinese Communist Party Plenum in Beijing.  The four-day forum will discuss the country’s next five-year plan.

· In Vietnam, the National Assembly holds its winter session, which lasts until December 11.  They are expected to discuss 49 laws and 4 resolutions -- a record number. Vietnam, one of the fastest-growing economies, is ramping up wide-ranging reforms that the government expects will help fuel double-digit economic growth in 2026, up from an expected 8% in GDP growth this year.

·       Diwali is celebrated in India through October 25.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Inflation Rate Q3

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (October)/ House Price Index (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Communist Party Fourth Plenum        

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Hajime Takata gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan.

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  The Foreign Ministers will discuss the state of the War in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, and the EU-Indo-Pacific relations.

·       The EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy Council (Energy) meets in Luxembourg.

·       European Commission President  Ursula von der Leyen participates in the Summit of Southern European Union countries (MED-9) in Portorož, Slovenia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at WE_ARE_IN conference in Frankfurt. European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Boris Vujcic attend a roundtable in New York.

·       Germany PPI (September)/ Bundesbank Balz Speech

·       Euro Area Current Account (August)/Construction Output (August)

·       Italy Construction Output (August)/ Current Account (August)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (September)/ Employment Growth (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Slovakia Current Account (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Turkey Central Government Debt (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (September)/ M1 Money Supply (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Real Estate Price Index Q3

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TVV meeting on the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve holds its Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C.  Federal  Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Median (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/18)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/17)    

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (August)/ Imports (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (September)

·       Costa Rica          Balance of Trade (September)

·       EARNINGS: Netfilx, GE, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, Capital One, Danaher, Lockheed Martin, Northrup Grumman, 3M, General Motors, EQT, Equifax, PulteGroup, Haliburton

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan’s Diet will vote on who will be the next Prime Minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Credit Card Spending (September)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/21)          

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones speaks on a panel at the ISDA/AFMA Derivatives Trading Forum in Sydney.

·       Japan BoJ Himino Speech

·       Taiwan Export Orders (September)

·       India Infrastructure Output (September)             

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russia is expected to begin 10-days of naval exercises in the Pacific in waters close to South Korea and Japan.

·       The Helsinki Security Forum takes place in Helsinki.  The event brings together experts and decision-makers to explore European security and defense.  It will also address how Europe can boost its competitiveness, invest in Defence, and shape its security order. High-level delegates are expected to attend, and participants include representatives from the Defence industry, research institutions, and government bodies.

·       The EU-Uzbekistan Cooperation Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg.

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  They will discuss the Multiannual Financial Framework 2028-2034, Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary, and other issues.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote address at the Norges Bank's Climate Conference followed by moderated discussion with Al Gore in Oslo, Norway.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives welcoming remarks at the 5th WE_ARE_IN Macroeconomics and Finance Conference 2025 organized by Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives evidence to the House of Lords' Financial Services Regulation Committee on the growth in private markets in the UK following reforms introduced after the 2008 financial crisis.

·       Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a speech at the Bank of England and Bank for International Settlements DLT Innovation Challenge Showcase in London.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (September)

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (September)

·       Greece Current Account (August)

·       Slovenia PPI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (October)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The ISS/Africa Futures Conference 2025 takes place online.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (August)       

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the UN Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial inclusion at the Crossing the Credit Barrier Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/17)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/17)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/17)      

·       Mexico Economic Activity (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (August)/ Leading Indicator (September)

·       EARNINGS: Tesla, SAP, IBM, Thermo Fisher, AT&T, UniCredit, Barclays, Moody’s, Southwest Airlines, Alcoa

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (September)

·       Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino gives a speech at the Chugoku Economic Federation in Hiroshima, Japan, Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate (October)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-Egypt Summit will be held in Brussels.

·       The Tripartite Social Summit will be held in Luxembourg.

·       In London, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer hosts the 2025 Berlin Process Summit in partnership with Germany. The meeting aims to support stability, security, and economic co-operation in the western Balkan region.

·       The Global Security and Innovation Summit, a two-day event to discuss global security challenges and to explore new security technology, opens in Hamburg.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the  Frankfurt Finance & Future Summit in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a lecture at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos participates in a talk at the Barcelona Real Assets Meeting 2025 in Barcelona, Spain.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sam Woods gives a speech at the Annual City Banquet at Mansion House in London.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Price Index (September)/ BoE Woods Speech

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Poland Retail Sales (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Russia Industrial Production (September)/ PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Middle East..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva travels to Indonesia and Malaysia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will testify before the  U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Retail Sales (August)/ Manufacturing Sales (September)   

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (September)/ Existing Home Sales (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/17)/ Kansas Fed Composite & Manufacturing Index (October)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/23)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/22)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (October)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay PPI (September)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNNGS: T-Mobile, Blackstone, Intel, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Newmont, Freeport-McMorRan, Ford Motor, Baker Hughes, Dassault Systems, PG&E, Dow, EvolutionAB, Atlas Copco

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/18)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/18)            

·       Australia RBA Bulletin

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (September)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (September)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (September)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Euro Summit takes place in Brussels. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane accepts the occasion of the conferral of the 2025 Pádraig Ó hUiginn Award to him in Dublin, Ireland.

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee, Jonathan Hall, gives a speech on the Bank of England Financial Committee’s mandate and the search for a social optimum in London.

·       France Business Confidence (October)/ Business Climate Indicator (October)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (October)/ TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)    

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Great Britain CBI Business Optimism Index Q4/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (October

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Libya Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Friday, October 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Maintenance of international peace and security: The United Nations Organization: Looking into the Future..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will hold an Open Board Meeting.  The Board will consider proposals to enhance the transparency and public accountability of the Board’s stress testing framework and request comments on the scenarios for the Board’s 2026 supervisory stress test.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ Current Account (September)/      Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (October)

·       Chile PPI (September)

·       USA Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (October)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/24)/ New Home Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, NatWest, Saab, Sanofi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gives a speech in Sydney/Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Japan Inflation Rate (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Coincident Index Final (August)/ Leading Economic Index Final (August)      

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3/ Industrial Production (September)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Index (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/17)          

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Hong Kong Business Confidence Q4

·       China FDI (YTD) (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ireland holds Presidential elections.

· European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council, meets with Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of Uzbekistan, in Brussels, Belgium.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat titled 'Il nuovo quadro della finanza internationale' at Cambio di Paradigma organized by Il Mattino in Naples, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council members Joachim Nagel and Francois Villeroy de Galhau speak at the Berlin Global Dialogue.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (October)/ Car Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       France Consumer Confidence (October)/ HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Spain Unemployment Rate Q3/ PPI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (October)/ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)     

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Zambia's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, October 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Argentina Midterm Legislative Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In  Japan, the Mount Fuji Dialogue begins.  The gathering unites influential government officials and businesspeople from the U.S. and Japan, will be held in Tokyo. Hosted by the Japan Center for Economic Research and the Japan Institute of International Affairs, the annual event comes amid flaring U.S.-China tensions and political uncertainty in Japan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the 2025 Berlin Global Dialogue in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bosnia and Herzegovina holds a referendum in the ethnic Republika Srpska to vote on whether they accept the courts’ decision to convict Milorad Dodik and later to remove him as RS president. Dodik has also stated that a referendum on independence for the Serbian entity might be held at a future date.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Ivory Coast holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia.  Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN's 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summer Time – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

There is No End to the Government Shutdown In Sight, the Senate Banking Committee holds a Prudential Regulator Hearing, the Fed Holds Its Payments Conference, and SIFMA and ABA hold their Annual Meetings

October 20 - 24, 2025

The federal government shutdown continues into its fourth week.  Our assessment is that the shutdown will go on for another two to three weeks – perhaps longer – as there seems to be little incentive or energy in Congress to settle the funding dispute.  And the House of Representatives remains out of session and will remain out until a deal is cut between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate.

But there are still several important events this coming week of importance to the markets.  The most important being a hearing entitled “Rightsizing Regulation” in the Senate Banking Committee, where all the major prudential regulators will testify. The hearing seems to be a prelude to the much-discussed bank regulatory reform effort the Treasury Department has been discussing over the last few months.  So, this hearing may be quite worthwhile to watch.

Also this week, SIFMA and the American Bankers Association are holding their annual meetings – SIFMA’s in Washington, D.C., and the ABA’s in Charlotte, North Carolina.   SEC Chair Paul Atkins will headline the SIFMA event while Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will keynote the ABA meeting.

Looking back at last week, we note a speech Atkins gave at the University of Delaware’s John Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance’s 25th Anniversary Gala.  Atkins revealed he has directed the SEC staff to review Rule 14a-8, the regulation that allows a company’s shareholders to request that a proposal be included in the company’s official proxy statement for shareholders to vote on. 

Also, last week, as part of the 2026 SEC budget proposal, the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) proposed a 20% cut to the salaries of its board members.  Currently, the PBAOB Chair makes $637,000 a year (meanwhile, the President of the United States makes $200,000 a year).

Below is a listing of all the rest of the major regulatory events in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, October 21, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing, Transportation, and Community Development will hold a hearing entitled “Innovation in US Housing: Solutions and Policies for America’s Future.”

·       Thursday, October 23, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Update from the Prudential Regulators: Rightsizing Regulation to Promote American Opportunity.”   Testifying will be Michelle Bowman, Vice Chair for Supervision, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;  Travis Hill, Acting Chairman, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation;  Jonathan Gould, Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; and  Kyle Hauptman, Chairman, National Credit Union Administration.

House of Representatives

·       The House of Representatives is out of session.  Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) has stated the House will remain out until the government shutdown ends.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday, October 21, 8:00  a.m. – 3:45 p.m.  – The Federal Reserve holds its Payments Innovation Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, October 21, 9:00 a.m. – Federal  Governor Christopher J. Waller will give opening remarks at the Federal Reserve Board’s Payments Innovation Conference, Washington, D.C

·       Wednesday, October 22, 4:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial inclusion at the Crossing the Credit Barrier Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Thursday, October 23, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will testify before the  U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs.

·       Thursday, October 23, 10:25 a.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on community investment at the Novogradac 2025 Fall New Markets Tax Credit Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana.

·       Friday, October 24, 2:00 p.m. – The Federal Reserve Board of Governors will hold an Open Board Meeting.  The Board will consider proposals to enhance the transparency and public accountability of the Board’s stress testing framework and request comments on the scenarios for the Board’s 2026 supervisory stress test.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Monday, October 20, 10:30 a.m. – Ken Kies, Assistant Treasury Secretary for Tax Policy and Acting IRS Chief Counsel, delivers remarks on "his career path, his experience with other major tax legislation, and the challenges of juggling the Assistant Secretary and Chief Counsel positions” at the American Bar Association’s 2025 Fall Tax Meeting in Washington, D.C.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, October 21, 8:50 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside talk with SIFMA President and CEO Ken Benstsen at the SIFMA Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C..

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       Tuesday, October 20, 8:30 a.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will discuss priorities and agency initiatives at the American Bankers Association’s Annual Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration 

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Monday – Tuesday, October 20 – 21 – SIFMA holds its Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday, October 20, 10:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a hybrid event entitled “Are Geopolitics Leading to Fragmentation of the International Financial System?”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

China’s New Latin American Playbook, Russia’s Increasingly Desperate Search for Soldiers, Who Will Succeed Xi as China’s Next President?,  and Geopolitical Implications of the Race for 6G

October 17 - 19, 2025

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully,  you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

Latin America

• China’s New Playbook for Latin America         Americas Quarterly

  China has entered a new phase in its engagement with Latin America.  It is one still characterized by extensive resource-seeking and market-seeking activity, features of the relationship for more than three decades now. As China invests and trades in Latin American raw materials and builds markets across the region for everything from its toys and textiles to ultra-high-voltage transmission lines and cloud services, overall trade continues to rise.  At the same time, the relationship is rapidly evolving toward a more targeted, strategic approach. For all the recent attention given to China’s signature Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure projects, Latin America’s relative share of investments under the plan is falling for the third consecutive year. The region received a little more than 1% of Beijing’s global BRI construction spending and 0.4% of outbound investment in the first half of 2025. Growth in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region is also slowing. Whether those trends hold remains to be seen. But the days of Beijing showering the region with loans and large-scale infrastructure projects may be over, or at least diminished, replaced by more deliberate engagement and a focus on specific sectors of Chinese interest, especially at the higher end of the value chain.
  

• How China’s Energy Investments Provide Durable Influence in South America  Henry Zeimer/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  China’s growing presence in South American energy generation and distribution has largely gone underreported, even as it risks placing critical infrastructure under foreign influence. Properly grasping the nature of this influence is of particular importance as the United States finds itself in the midst of a shift to a more competitive stance in its foreign policy approach in the Western Hemisphere.

• What Is Mexico’s Amparo Reform? Everything You Need to Know    Moments in Mexico

  Mexico’s democracy is again on the precipice of a key inflection point. This time, it entails the Sheinbaum administration’s efforts to reform the amparo, a tool of the Mexican legal system that grants individuals the right of redress in the case of constitutional and/or human rights violations. There is no direct counterpart to the Mexican amparo in the United States; however, its functions are roughly carried out through a combination of civil rights litigation, judicial review, injunctions, and the writ of habeas corpus. The amparo and associated processes are complex. This piece is intended to provide a cursory overview and highlight the changes that the Sheinbaum administration seeks to impose.

Russia

• Putin Seeks More Foreign Fighters Amid Mounting Russian Losses in Ukraine   Atlantic Council

  As Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches the four-year mark, Moscow is facing increasing difficulties replenishing the ranks of its invading army. With fewer Russians now prepared to volunteer, the Kremlin is seeking to recruit more foreign fighters to serve in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s colonial war. A number of recent media reports have highlighted the growing role of foreign nationals in the Russian military. In early October, an Indian citizen was captured by Ukrainian forces while fighting for Russia. The 22-year-old claimed to have been arrested in Russia while studying and pressured into signing a contract with the Russian army in order to secure his release from prison. After just two weeks of basic training, he was sent to the front lines of the war in Ukraine. Also in early October, the Los Angeles Times reported that Russia may have recruited tens of thousands of foreign fighters via social media, with many coming from disadvantaged countries across the Middle East, Africa, and East Asia. The article detailed how many of these recruits are allegedly enticed with offers of generous benefits including large salaries and Russian citizenship in exchange for military service in non-combat roles. In practice, however, most are soon sent straight into battle.

• The Shooting Party: Russia’s Evolving Threat Perceptions Since 2002    Center for Naval Analysis (CNA)

  In this paper, the authors examine how Russian military thinkers interpret and operationalize the threat perceptions defined by the country’s political leadership. Despite nearly four years of war in Ukraine, Russian security concerns regarding US military capabilities remain largely unchanged. Russian military thinkers continue to perceive US ballistic missile defense and Prompt Global Strike programs as the main threats to Russia’s security, believing these programs to be designed to degrade Russia’s retaliatory strike capabilities. The war in Ukraine has exposed gaps in Russia’s military capabilities, heightening Russian anxiety about the military contingents from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the Baltic and Black Seas, particularly potential US deployments to Finland and Sweden. Viewing the substantial US and NATO military assistance to Ukraine as part of a broader strategy to weaken Russia, Russian military thinkers are particularly alarmed by Ukrainian offensive operations within Russian borders or those that target mainland Russia. Russian military thinkers believe that the United States and NATO are preparing for a long-term confrontation with Russia, which reinforces their views on the importance of maintaining and enhancing Russia’s strategic deterrence capabilities.

• ·Russia’s Crime-Terror Nexus: Criminality as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare in Europe    GLOBSEC/International Centre for Counter-Terrorism

  This report takes stock of Russian hybrid warfare in Europe in the context of its war of aggression against Ukraine. While doing so, it offers more than a catalogue of kinetic incidents attributed to Moscow. The report shows the extent to which criminality – whether through direct reliance on criminals to conduct attacks or through the “spook-gangster” nexus – constitutes a central pillar of Russia’s hybrid warfare. It opens with an overview of the phenomenon and traces Russia’s experience with hybrid tactics back to at least the 1920s. It then explores Moscow’s enduring use of criminality as a tool of domestic control and foreign policy, with particular emphasis on the post-2022 period.

China

• Xi Jinping's Successor and the Future of China    The Foreign Affairs  Interview Podcast

  When Xi Jinping took over the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, he began a new chapter in China’s history—one that would come to be defined above all by his grip on power. Xi overhauled not only the CCP but also China’s economy, military, and role in the world. Yet no matter how secure his power may be—and no matter his recent hot-mic musings about living to 150—what comes after Xi, and how it comes, is an increasingly central question in Chinese politics. As the political scientists Tyler Jost and Daniel Mattingly wrote recently in Foreign Affairs, “For any authoritarian regime, political succession is a moment of peril . . . and for all its strengths, the CCP is no exception.” And that’s not just a risk for the future. The uncertainty and the jockeying that the succession question spurs is already starting to shape China’s present. To Jost and Mattingly, there’s more at stake than just the matter of who will follow Xi. They note: “The drama created by a struggle over the succession . . . is unlikely to stay inside China’s borders.” They joined Deputy Editor Chloe Fox to discuss the nature of Xi’s rule, his attempt to define his legacy, and what that will mean for China in the coming months, years, and decades.
  

• Stabilizing the US–China Rivalry    Rand

  The geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China embodies risks of outright military conflict, economic warfare, and political subversion, as well as the danger that tensions between the world's two leading powers will destroy the potential for achieving a global consensus on such issues as climate and artificial intelligence. Moderating this rivalry, therefore, emerges as a critical goal, both for the United States and China and for the wider world. The authors of this report propose that, even in the context of intense competition, it might be possible to find limited mechanisms of stabilization across several specific issue areas. They offer specific recommendations both for general stabilization of the rivalry and for three issue areas: Taiwan, the South China Sea, and competition in science and technology.

Geoeconomics, Technology, Global Food Policy, and Dealing with Student Absenteeism

• 6G isn’t about speed. It’s about sovereignty    The Strategist

  The race to 6G isn’t just about bandwidth. It’s about control over spectrum, standards, supply chains, and the values underpinning tomorrow’s infrastructure. If 5G taught us anything, trust and interoperability need to be built in from the start.  The Indo-Pacific is already the world’s most contested connectivity environment. Through submarine cables, cloud platforms, and national 5G rollouts, governments are already making decisions that will shape how their citizens communicate, how their economies function, and who sets the rules. The shift to 6G only sharpens that contest.  Reporting from the Financial Times makes clear that China is moving fast. Beijing is systematically excluding European vendors from its domestic telecommunications networks. Ericsson and Nokia, already reduced to a 4 percent market share, now face opaque security reviews that stretch for months. The message is that foreign firms aren’t welcome, while domestic vendors are being positioned as the only trusted suppliers for national infrastructure. They are backed by policy, shielded from competition, and expected to dominate the market at home and abroad.
  

• Why Have Inflation Expectations Surged Recently? A Historical Perspective  Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

  Average near-term household inflation expectations in the Michigan Survey of Consumers have peaked higher than 8% four times in the past 60 years: twice in the 1970s, during the 2021-2022 post-pandemic inflation surge, and since spring 2025. Coincident sharp increases in gas and food prices, along with underlying broad-based inflation, explain a large share of the 2021-2022 spike in inflation expectations; those factors also accounted for about two-thirds of the 1973-1975 surge. The 1978-1980 increase in inflation expectations was much larger than the increase that rising prices usually would imply, consistent with the de-anchoring of inflation expectations at that time. Rising prices can barely explain the 2025 surge observed in the Michigan Survey of Consumers, which may signal that the risk of de-anchoring is larger than it was in the pre-pandemic period.
  

• Is the U.S. in an Above-Target Inflation Regime?    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  Since January 2012, the Federal Reserve has adopted an explicit target of 2% inflation, measured as the 12-month change in the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.1 And yet, after several years of below-target inflation prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rose above 2% annually in March 2021 and has persisted above 2% ever since. According to the latest data available (August 2025), inflation remains significantly above target, at 2.7%. In previous blog posts, I have analyzed these dynamics and their likely origin. In this blog post, my analysis suggests that we may be in a persistent above-target inflation regime.
  

• The Challenge to Feed the World in the 21st Century: Useless, Harmful, and Helpful Policies  American Enterprise Institute

  Hunger, malnutrition, and food insecurity remain significant global problems, but instead of working toward solutions, Western governments are implementing policies guaranteed to reduce food production. Environmental benefits often attributed to policies that support biofuels, organic agriculture, land conservation programs, and similar strategies appear to be moderate or disappear once their impacts on the conversion of forested lands to agriculture are considered. The United Nations and the European Commission propose reducing food loss and waste and eating fewer animal products as strategies to combat food scarcity, but neither approach would likely be effective. To address world hunger, malnutrition, and food insecurity, the United States and other rich countries must stop enacting policies and supporting production practices that reduce agricultural yields, divert production from food to fuel, and encourage the conversion of forested lands to agricultural production across the world.

• Need Not Be a Surprise: Early-Warning Systems for Chronic Absenteeism     Nat Malkus/Sam Hollen – American Enterprise Institute

  The COVID-19 pandemic drove up chronic absenteeism in nearly every school and student demographic, making district leaders’ task of targeting resources difficult. Whom do you help when every student is a candidate? Existing work shows that it is possible to predict absenteeism in advance, but past approaches are largely proprietary or hard for district leaders to use. We present a series of early-warning systems, starting very simple and adding complexity, with district leaders’ needs and constraints in mind.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Federal Government Remains Shut, and the House is Out of Session. But it is IMF/World Bank Week, and the IIF, STA, and Fintech Foundation Host Big Conferences

October 13 - 17, 2025

Next week is going to be a particularly odd week: It is Columbus Day today (Monday - a federal holiday), but the Federal Government is shut down and will likely remain shut down all week, and as a result, there are no Congressional hearings scheduled (indeed, the House is going to remain out of session until the shutdown ends). 

However, Washington will also be extremely busy, as it is also hosting the annual International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings, bringing finance ministers from around the world to the city (heads-up: expect lots of motorcades and closed-off streets). 

There will be, however, a number of speeches being given by Federal Reserve Board and regional Fed Presidents – including a speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell on the economic outlook.  Considering the lack of economic reports from the federal government due to the shutdown, Powell’s speech will be closely watched in advance of the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting.  And Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be speaking twice this week on regulatory issues.

Arguably, the biggest events this week will be the Institute for International Finance’s annual 2025 members meeting, the Securities Traders Association annual conference, and the Fintech Week 2025 conference.  Between the two conferences, several regulators will be speaking.

Below is a listing of all the rest of the major regulatory events in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       There are no significant hearings scheduled at this time.  A number of committee hearings have been postponed due to the federal government shutdown.

House of Representatives

·       The House of Representatives is out of session.  Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) has stated the House will remain out until the government shutdown ends.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, October 13, Noon – Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting," Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.”

·       Tuesday, October 14, 8:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, October 14, 12:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Tuesday, October 14, 3:25 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, October 14, 3:30 p.m. – Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

·       Wednesday, October 15, 9:30 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).

·       Wednesday, October 15, 12:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Wednesday, October 15, 12:10 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in a moderated conversation and Q&A on “Economic Mobility" before the United Way Regional Summit on Economic Mobility for Children and Youth.

·       Wednesday, October 15, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on artificial intelligence at the 2025 D Fintech Week.

·       Thursday, October 16, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before a virtual Aiken County Chamber of Commerce event.

·       Thursday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Governor Christopher J. Waller, New York, New York.

·       Thursday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, October 16, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks at the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference (virtual).

·       Thursday, October 16, 12:45 p.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics.

·       Thursday, October 16, 4:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the  Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, October 16, 4:30 p.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Risk Management Association.

·       Thursday, October 16, 6:00 p.m. – Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City.

·       Friday, October 17, 12:15 p.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem discusses the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Institute for International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Wednesday, October 15, 4:00 p.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will give the keynote speech at the DC Fintech Week 2025.

·       Thursday, October 16, 9:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins participates in a fireside chat at the Securities Traders Association Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Tuesday, October 15, 9:00 a.m. – Acting Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Travis Hill delivers remarks on "The Banking Revolution" at the D.C. Fintech Week 2025 Conference.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       Wednesday, October 15, 1:30 p.m. – FINRA President and CEO Robert Cook speaks at the Securities Traders Association annual conference in Washington, D.C.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration 

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       It is IMF/World Bank 2025 Annual Meeting week.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Tuesday – Friday, October 14 – 17 – The Institute for International Finance holds their 2025 Annual Membership Meeting in Washington, D.C.  You can see the long list of speakers HERE.

·       Tuesday, October 14, 3:00 p.m. – Maurice Obstfeld, PIIE C. Fred Bergsten senior fellow, joins Anjali V. Bhatt, PIIE communications manager and research fellow, for a live, virtual conversation about tariffs in the US as fiscal policy , the future of the US-centric, dollar-based international monetary and financial system, and other topics.

·       October 15 – 16 – The Fintech Foundation holds its D.C. Fintech Week 2025.  You can see the schedule of speakers HERE.

·       October 15 – 17 – The Securities Traders Association holds its 92nd Annual Market Structure Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Wednesday, October 15, 11:00 a.m. – The Cato Institute holds an event entitled “Fifty-Five Years of the Bank Secrecy Act.”

·       Wednesday, October 15, Noon – Representative Andy Barry (R-KY), Chair of the House Financial Services Committee’s Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy Subcommittee, will speak at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

Peace Comes to Gaza and Hostages Are To Be Released, The US Government Remains Shutdown, China Cuts off Rare Earth Exports, Argentina’s Milei Meets with Trump Again, and The Annual World Bank/IMF Take Place in Washington, DC

October 12 - 19, 2025

It will be a historic week as Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump gather in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to witness the signing of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas brokered by Trump. And, after more than two years of captivity, the remaining Israeli hostages are scheduled to be released on Monday. More than 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and more than 1700 detainees rounded up since Israeli forces entered Gaza are to be released.

The challenge now is to keep the ceasefire going in the second phase of the agreement.  This includes questions about the future governance of Gaza, getting Hamas to disarm, and how to rebuild the devastated region.

Also this week, Argentine President Javier Milei will travel to Washington to meet with President Trump to discuss the newly inked bailout package the US is giving Argentina.  The US Treasury intervened in the Argentine currency market to stabilize the peso.  Milei is hoping to garner further support from Trump as mid-term elections approach in Argentina.

All this comes as China moved to impose tough new export controls on rare earths, lithium-ion batteries, and synthetic diamonds – a move which shocked many countries and triggered President Trump to impose new 100 percent tariffs on China on Friday.  Markets are trying to ascertain how serious and long-term China’s moves are, or if it is merely a negotiating tactic by China’s President Xi in advance of a possible meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN meeting later this month. 

Finally, the US federal government remains shutdown and from all indications, will remain shut down this coming week.  There appears to be little to no real negotiations between Congressional Democrats and Republicans, and the House of Representatives is expected to remain out of session this coming week.  Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has begun laying off federal employees as opposed to furloughing them.  And with the shutdown, a number of US data releases will not be released.

This brings us to this week’s global economic and financial radar screen.  Dominating the week will be the  2025 World Bank/IMF Annual meetings and the many side events being held in Washington – the most important being the Institute for International Finance’s annual member meeting – where numerous central bankers will pop by to give speeches and participate on panels.

Looking at the Americas, with the US federal government shutdown still going on, most major data releases are either being canceled or delayed (leaving the Federal Reserve will remain flying somewhat blind on data in advance of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, October 28 – 29.)   The most important now-delayed release is the September CPI which was scheduled to come out October 15th.  That report has now been rescheduled to October 24.

What is likely to guide markets is the large number of Federal Reserve and regional Fed speeches this week, including Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday.   Also, we would note this week we will see a number of major bank and financial institutions earnings reports including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BlackRock.

 Turning to Europe, we will see Eurozone labor market data releases and the German ZEW Survey on Tuesday, GDP numbers on Thursday, and lots of speeches from European Central Bank board members – including several by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

In Asia this week, the big economic releases will be coming out of China where trade figures are published on Monday and inflation data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Afghan Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqui, will visit India and will reportedly discuss developmental assistance, among other things.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections. President Paul Biya is running for his 8th term in office. If he wins, he will be in office as president until he is 100 years old.

·       Equatorial Guinea celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 13, 2025

 Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting week begins in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil production report.

·       The Nobel Prize in Economics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump travels to Egypt to attend the Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza, negotiated by Trump.

·        

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets are closed.

·       It is Columbus Day in the US.  Stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed, as are most banks, and the US government is closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting," Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.”

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       President Xi Jinping to attend the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders’ Meeting on Women in Beijing, where he will deliver a keynote speech.

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand travels to New Delhi to meet with meets with India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.  Anand then travels to Singapore for a meeting with Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan. From there, Anand travels to China for talks with China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Services NZ PSI (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Inflation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Albania to meet with President Bajram Begaj and Prime Minister Edi Rama.  She will participate in the opening ceremony of the EU-Western Balkans Investment Forum.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with President Jakov Milatovic and Prime Minister Milojko Spajic.

·       The 71st Annual Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly will be held in Ljubljana, Slovenia

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers through October 14 in  Horsens, Denmark.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to discuss the rule of law, the “fight against Russian impunity,” and Eurojust.

·       NATO’s annual two-week nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon will begin in the Netherlands.

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis in Athens, Greece.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene delivers the keynote address at the SPE Annual Conference in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (August)

·       Turkey Current Account (August)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza.

·       The remaining living Israeli hostages in Gaza will likely be released either today or tomorrow as part of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement.

·       President Trump is expected to travel to Jerusalem, Israel, where he will address the Israeli Knesset.

·       Israel celebrates Simchat Torah Eve. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Global

·       The IMF publishes their World Economic Outlook report.

·       The International Energy Agency monthly oil market report is published.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions. In the morning, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

·       The Institute for International Finance Annual Membership meeting begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through October 17. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump is expected to welcome Argentina’s President Javier Milei to the White House. They are expected to discuss the US’s recent bailout of the Argentine economy and regional security issues.

·       The 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber imports from Canada and elsewhere go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers holds a fireside chat at the B.C. Business Summit in Vancouver.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September/Redbook (October/11)

·       Canada Building Permits (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Aeon, BlackRock, BP, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, LVMH, Publicis Groupe, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. and China are due to begin collecting port fees on each other's ships, in an escalating competition for the seas. Washington announced its docking charges earlier this year to challenge Chinese maritime dominance and revive American shipbuilding. On Friday, Beijing said it would respond in kind.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)     

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)

·       China New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing SE

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss civil protection and health preparedness, the Schengen Agreement, Migration and other issues.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina.  She will meet with the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and meet with Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers Borjana Krišto; visits the Srebrenica Memorial Centre.

·       Today is Defender of Ukraine Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives remarks at the ECR Expert Policy conference "What Future for the Digital Euro?" organized by European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum 2025 in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the Ethics and Compliance Conference organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor presents remarks and a fireside chat with FT columnist Gillian Tett at Kings College, Cambridge, on ‘diversion ahead’.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ECB Donnery Speech     

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Romania Current Account (August)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-monitored Gaza-Egypt pedestrian border crossing reopens.

·       Today is Yemen Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings formally begin in Washington, D.C.

·       G7 Finance Ministers are expected to meet in Washington to discuss increasing pressure on Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on “Economic Mobility" before the United Way Regional Summit on Economic Mobility for Children and Youth.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on artificial intelligence at the 2025 D Fintech Week.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/10)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/10)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (August)/ Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Abbot Laboratories, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group., Progressive

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Diet will hold an extraordinary session to elect a new prime minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a fireside chat at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at a Citi conference in Sydney.

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       China Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q3

·       India Unemployment Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) meeting in Brussels. EU Defense Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte chairing the session.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the Arab League Summit in Moscow.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister Đuro Macut.  Later, she travels to Kosovo to meet with President Vjosa Osmani and caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Later in the day, she travels to North Macedonia: to meet with President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova and Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and then meets President of the Assembly Afrim Gashi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening address at the 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.  Later, he gives remarks at the 25th anniversary of Alantra in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel at the IIF Annual Membership meeting in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor, financial stability, Sarah Breeden is a panelist at the Fintech Foundation 2025 DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden speaks in a panel event at the Single Resolution Mechanism 10th Anniversary Conference in Brussels.

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)/ Residential Property Prices (August)            

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Housing Starts (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before a virtual Aiken County Chamber of Commerce event.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Governor Christopher J. Waller, New York, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks at the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference (virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the  Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Risk Management Association.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City.

·       USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October/NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/10)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/15)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/11)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/11)/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Inventories (August)

·       EARNINGS: Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, ABB, CSX, Interactive Brokers, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Marsh McLennan, Nordea Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor, Travelers, United Airlines, US Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Okinawa.

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)/BoJ JGB Purchase/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg.

·       The European Commission will unveil its "Roadmap for Defence Readiness." 

·       The 2025 Arctic Circle Assembly will meet in Iceland.  It is expected that more than 2,000 people representing more than 60 countries will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an IMF's Debate on the Global Economy: Shaping Economic Policies in the Face of Disruptive Change in Washington D.C., USA

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the SSM Conference on Digitalization in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a roundtable discussion "Central Banking and Supervision in a Geopolitically Fragmented World: Risks, Responses, and Cooperation" organized by Toronto Centre in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel panel "Monetary Crosscurrents: Rethinking Frameworks Amid Trade and Policy Fragmentation" at 2025 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Growth and Innovation in an Uncertain World" in Washington D.C.,

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Friday, October 17, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem discusses the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Institute for International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.

·       USA Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Building Permits (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       EARNINGS: American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, Truist Financial, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The KMT, Taiwan's biggest opposition party, chooses a new leader as it seeks a path back to power. The KMT has lost three straight presidential elections to the Democratic Progressive Party, most recently in January 2024. But it enjoys a legislative majority with its smaller partner, the Taiwan People's Party, and it has momentum after vanquishing efforts to recall some of its lawmakers this summer. The winner will be in a position to influence how Taiwan handles cross-strait tensions with China and tricky ties with the U.S..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/11)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore     Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/03)/ Deposit Growth (October/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives remarks and takes questions at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) "Addressing Regulatory Fragmentation" roundtable discussion in Washington D.C.

·       Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Annual Conference.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

·       UN Security Council Resolution 2231 will expire today, unless extended. The Security Council unanimously adopted the resolution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bolivia Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion at Group of Thirty opening panel "Global Economic Outlook" in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollon participates on a panel discussion at Euro50Group meeting in Washington D.C.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.