The Global Week Ahead

Oct 27

Trump Travels to Asia for the APEC Leaders Meeting and the ASEAN Summit, Trump Will Meet with Japan’s PM Takaichi and China’s Xi Seeking Trade Deals, and it is a Big Week for US, EU, Japan, and Canada Central Banks

October 26 - November 2, 2025

Geopolitics and global markets will be keenly focused on Asia this week. President Donald Trump travels to Malaysia this weekend at attend the APEC Leaders meeting. While there, the President is presiding over the signing of a peace deal he helped broker between Cambodia and Thailand and then working to hammer out trade deals with Malaysia, Vietnam, as well Cambodia and Thailand.

From there, President Trump travels to Japan – his fourth presidential trip there – to meet with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Again, the President is hoping to hammer out a framework for a trade deal. The major sticking point between the US and Japan is whether Prime Minister Takaichi will hold by a pledge her predecessor made of giving $550 billion to the US to fund unspecified projects.

From there, Trump travels to Gyeongju, South Korea for the ASEAN Leaders Summit and a much-anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent met with Chinese officials to iron out a “framework” of an agreement (but not an overarching deal) in advance of the Trump-Xi meeting.

Bessent reportedly finalized a deal on TikTok and may have gotten an extension of rare earth sales to the US following China’s recent clampdown on sales globally.

Finally, we would note Trump is expected to meet with South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit to work further on a US-South Korea trade deal.

Here in Washington, the federal government shutdown is going into its 5th week. We would note that this past Friday, air traffic controllers, TSA Agents, and other key government workers experienced their first full paycheck not arriving. As we get closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, we believe pressure will grow on Congress to hammer out some sort of deal to reopen the government.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, this is going to be a big week for central banks. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meet this week on interest rates. Markets are watching and listening not only for any rate moves but for assessments on how the trade wars might be impacting the longer-term inflation outlook globally.

This week is also a big week for corporate earnings with Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Airbus, Boeing and number of large cap companies reporting.

With the federal government shutdown still in place, there will not be much other major economic reports in the US (Q3 GDP was scheduled to be reported). We will get the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Report on Tuesday.

In Europe, we will get October CPIs and Q3 GDP reports from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, along with the PCE report, plus consumer confidence reports from Germany and Italy and the greater Eurozone on Thursday.

In Asia, China releases October PMIs on Friday along with September retail sales. Japan releases the Tokyo CPI on Thursday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina holds elections for the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN Summit begins in Kuala Lumpur and runs through October 28. Southeast Asian leaders will convene, and President Trump is expected to oversee the signing of the Kuala Lumpur Accord, a peace deal between Thailand and Cambodia. Leaders are set to discuss growing U.S. tariff pressures, regional conflicts like the one in Myanmar, and widening geopolitical divisions. The summit will additionally mark the formal accession of Timor-Leste as ASEAN’s 11th member.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· In the UK and EU, it is the end of Summertime – clocks get set back one hour.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 27, 2025

Global

· Vietnam hosts the United Nations’ global convention on cybercrime.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will make an official visit to Japan through Wednesday. While there, he will hold an official summit with newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where Trump hopes to wrap up a US-Japan trade deal.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (September)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Durable Goods Orders (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Beijing Financial Forum begins and runs through Friday. More than 400 delegates from 30 countries are expected to attend. People's Bank of China Gov. Pan Gongsheng and top securities regulator Wu Qing are reportedly due to speak.

· North Korea's top diplomat Choe Son Hui visits Moscow for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (September)/ FDI (YTD) (September)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (September)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock holds a fireside chat at the ABE annual dinner in Sydney, Australia.

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Nomura

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council will meet in Luxembourg.

· NATO conducts annual nuclear exercise Steadfast Noon.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at a joint ECB and EUI banking governance high-level seminar "Board of the Future" in Florence, Italy. ECB Board Member Anneli Tuominen also will speak.

· Turkey Business Confidence (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Capacity Utilization (October)/ Participation Rate (September)

· Euro Area ECB Elderson Speech/ Loans to Companies (September)/ Loans to Households (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)/ ECB Tuominen Speech

· Slovenia Business Confidence (October)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (October)/ Ifo Current Conditions (October)/ Ifo Expectations (October)

· Greece Total Credit (September)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (October)/ BoE Oakes Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Future Investment Initiative, an annual investment event organized by the FII Institute, a non-profit organization run by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, begins in Riyadh.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on the economy and interest rates today and Wednesday. Fed Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 p.m. on Wednesday.

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (September)

· USA Redbook (October/25)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (October)/ Money Supply (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/24)/ House Price Index (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (October)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

· India Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula President von der Leyen will travel to Stockholm to participate in a meeting with the Nordic Leaders and the SG of the Nordic Council of Ministers. She will meet with Andreas Norlén, Speaker of the Riksdag and then deliver a speech at the 77th session of the Nordic Council.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Union New Car Registrations (September)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (November)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

· Italy Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (September)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (September)/ Jobseekers Total (September)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tanzania holds general elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (October)

Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The suspension of increased US tariffs on Mexico ends.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board’s Federal Open Market Committee concludes two days of meetings and announces interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference in the afternoon.

· US MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/24)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/24)/ Pending Home Sales (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/24)/ Decision/Goods Trade Balance Adv (September)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)

· Brazil Bank Lending (September)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (September)

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

· Colombia Business Confidence (September)

· EARNINGS: Boeing, Alphabet, Meta

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Russia-Venezuela Business Forum takes place in Caracas, Venezuela.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (October)/ US President Trump-China President Xi Meeting

· Australia Inflation Rate Q3/ Monthly CPI Indicator (September)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q3/ CPI Q3/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q3

· Malaysia PPI (September)

· Japan Consumer Confidence (October)

· Singapore Import Prices (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ PPI (September)

· India M3 Money Supply (October/17)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Netherlands holds snap parliamentary elections following the collapse of Prime Minister Dick Schoof’s coalition government in June.

· German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz travels to Ankara, Turkey for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets at the Banca d’Italia in Florence through Thursday, October 30.

· Hungary Balance of Trade (September)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (October)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (September)/ Mortgage Approvals (September)/ Mortgage Lending (September)/ M4 Money Supply (September)/ Net Lending to Individuals (September)

· Italy PPI (September)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (October)/ Corporate Profits (August)/ Real Wage Growth (August)/ Retail Sales (September)

· EARNINGS: Deutsche Bank, Adidas, UBS, BASF, Mercedes-Benz, Airbus, TotalEnergies, AB InBev, Stellantis, Lufthansa, Volkswagen

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (October)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), and another draft resolution on Colombia.

· The International Energy Agency publishes an annual World Energy Outlook on global energy prospects.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC CEO Summit. Trump hopes to hammer out a partial trade deal with China, especially around rare earth export controls China has recently instituted.

· The US’ 25% tariffs on heavy trucks enters into force.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a pre-recorded speech at the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Outreach Meeting.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (October)/ Net Payrolls (September)

· Chile Copper Production (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan gives welcoming remarks at The Evolving Landscape of Bank Funding conference hosted by the Dallas Fed.

· USA EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/24)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/30)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/29)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ GDP Price Index Q3/ Initial Jobless Claims (September & October)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September & October)/ PCE Prices Q3/ Real Consumer Spending Q3

· EARNINGS: Amazon, Apple

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Defense chiefs from the 11-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations will meet in Kuala Lumpur through Nov. 2 for the ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting. The gathering comes as the bloc expands its cooperation framework, with Germany and Turkey joining the ADMM observer program for the 2024-2027 term.

· The Japan Mobility Show, formerly known as the Tokyo Motor Show, will be held through Nov. 9 at Tokyo Big Sight. The theme of this year's event is: "A unique opportunity to explore mobility's future." A record number of over 500 companies and organizations will participate.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan begins a two-day board meeting on the economy and interest rates.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/25)/ Stock Investment by

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (October)

· Australia Import Prices Q3/ Export Prices Q3

· Philippines Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (September)/ PPI (September)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q3

· Thailand Industrial Production (September)

· EARNINGS: Panasonic, Japan Airlines, All Nippon Airways, Apple, Samsung Electronics

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank concludes two days of meetings in Florence and announces its decision on interest rates followed by a press conference hosted by ECB President Christine Lagarde at 4:15 p.m. CET.

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Economic Sentiment (October)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Consumer Confidence (October)/ Industrial Sentiment (October)/ Selling Price Expectations (October)/ Services Sentiment (October)

· France GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Household Consumption (September)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (September)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (October)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Slovakia Business Confidence (October)/ Consumer Confidence (October)

· Spain Inflation Rate (October)/ Business Confidence (October)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (October)

· Germany Unemployed Persons (October)/ Unemployment Change (October)/ Unemployment Rate (October)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (October)/ Bavaria CPI (October)/ Brandenburg CPI (October)/ Hesse CPI (October)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (October)/ Saxony CPI (October)/ Inflation Rate (October)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Industrial Sales (August)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (October)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (October)

· Russia GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q3/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Private Bank Lending (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (September)

· Zambia Inflation Rate (October)

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (September)

Friday, October 31, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Bosnia and Herzegovina, followed by a debate. In the afternoon, the Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL).

· G7 energy and Environment Ministers meet in Canada.

· The International Institute for Strategic Studies holds its Manama Dialogue Conference.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (September)/ Nominal Budget Balance (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

· Canada GDP (August)/ Average Weekly Earnings (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

· USA Fed Logan Speech/ Chicago PMI (October)/ Fed Bostic Speech/ Fed Hammack Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/31)/ Personal Income & Spending (September)/ Employment Cost Index Q3/ PCE Price Index (September)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (September)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (September)

· Peru Inflation Rate (October)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (September)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (October)

· EARNINGS: Chevron, ExxonMobil, T. Rowe Price, Weyerhaeuser, Canadian National Railway, Ingersoll Rand, AbbVie, Aon

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The ASEAN Leaders Meeting takes place in South Korea. Leaders of the 21-member organization are expected to meet over two days. President Trump is expected to hold talks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. South Korea is also hoping to use the meeting to promote foreign investment.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (October)

· South Korea Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (September)/ Tokyo Core CPI (October)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Construction Orders (September)

· Australia PPI Q3/ Housing Credit (September)/ Private Sector Credit (September)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (October)

· China NBS General/ Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing PMI (October)

· Singapore Bank Lending (September)/ Business Confidence Q3

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (September)

· Thailand Current Account (September)/ Private Investment & Consumption (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (October)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q3

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Retail Sales (September)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (October)/ Balance of Trade (September)

· India Government Budget Value (September)/ Bank Loan Growth (October/17)/ Deposit Growth (October/17)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/24)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (October)/ Wholesale Prices (October)/ Balance of Trade (October)

· EARNINGS: Sumitomo, Mitsubishi Electric,

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia holds local elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Banca d’Italia will host the 11th edition of their International Macroeconomics Workshop, jointly organized with the Bank of England and Banque de France, at their base in Rome.

· Germany Retail Sales (September)/ Import Prices (September)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ Tourism Revenues Q3/ Tourist Arrivals (September)/ MPC Meeting Summary

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (October)

· Hungary PPI (September)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (September)

· France Inflation Rate (October)/ PPI (September)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (September)/ Current Account (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (October)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (October)/ CPI (October)

· Greece Retail Sales (August)

· Italy Inflation Rate (October)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Retail Sales (September)

· Ukraine Current Account (September)

· Sri Lanka PPI (September)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Cote d’Ivoire holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (October)

· South Africa Balance of Trade (September)/ Budget Balance (September)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (October)

Saturday, November 1, 2025

Global

· Sierra Leone assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of November.

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