The Global Week Ahead

Peace Comes to Gaza and Hostages Are To Be Released, The US Government Remains Shutdown, China Cuts off Rare Earth Exports, Argentina’s Milei Meets with Trump Again, and The Annual World Bank/IMF Take Place in Washington, DC

October 12 - 19, 2025

It will be a historic week as Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump gather in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, to witness the signing of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas brokered by Trump. And, after more than two years of captivity, the remaining Israeli hostages are scheduled to be released on Monday. More than 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and more than 1700 detainees rounded up since Israeli forces entered Gaza are to be released.

The challenge now is to keep the ceasefire going in the second phase of the agreement.  This includes questions about the future governance of Gaza, getting Hamas to disarm, and how to rebuild the devastated region.

Also this week, Argentine President Javier Milei will travel to Washington to meet with President Trump to discuss the newly inked bailout package the US is giving Argentina.  The US Treasury intervened in the Argentine currency market to stabilize the peso.  Milei is hoping to garner further support from Trump as mid-term elections approach in Argentina.

All this comes as China moved to impose tough new export controls on rare earths, lithium-ion batteries, and synthetic diamonds – a move which shocked many countries and triggered President Trump to impose new 100 percent tariffs on China on Friday.  Markets are trying to ascertain how serious and long-term China’s moves are, or if it is merely a negotiating tactic by China’s President Xi in advance of a possible meeting with President Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN meeting later this month. 

Finally, the US federal government remains shutdown and from all indications, will remain shut down this coming week.  There appears to be little to no real negotiations between Congressional Democrats and Republicans, and the House of Representatives is expected to remain out of session this coming week.  Meanwhile, the Trump Administration has begun laying off federal employees as opposed to furloughing them.  And with the shutdown, a number of US data releases will not be released.

This brings us to this week’s global economic and financial radar screen.  Dominating the week will be the  2025 World Bank/IMF Annual meetings and the many side events being held in Washington – the most important being the Institute for International Finance’s annual member meeting – where numerous central bankers will pop by to give speeches and participate on panels.

Looking at the Americas, with the US federal government shutdown still going on, most major data releases are either being canceled or delayed (leaving the Federal Reserve will remain flying somewhat blind on data in advance of the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, October 28 – 29.)   The most important now-delayed release is the September CPI which was scheduled to come out October 15th.  That report has now been rescheduled to October 24.

What is likely to guide markets is the large number of Federal Reserve and regional Fed speeches this week, including Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday.   Also, we would note this week we will see a number of major bank and financial institutions earnings reports including Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and BlackRock.

 Turning to Europe, we will see Eurozone labor market data releases and the German ZEW Survey on Tuesday, GDP numbers on Thursday, and lots of speeches from European Central Bank board members – including several by ECB President Christine Lagarde.

In Asia this week, the big economic releases will be coming out of China where trade figures are published on Monday and inflation data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Afghan Taliban's foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqui, will visit India and will reportedly discuss developmental assistance, among other things.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections. President Paul Biya is running for his 8th term in office. If he wins, he will be in office as president until he is 100 years old.

·       Equatorial Guinea celebrates its Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, October 13, 2025

 Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meeting week begins in Washington, D.C.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Great Lakes region, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1559 report (Lebanon).

·       OPEC releases its monthly oil production report.

·       The Nobel Prize in Economics is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump travels to Egypt to attend the Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza, negotiated by Trump.

·        

·       Canada celebrates Thanksgiving Day. Financial markets are closed.

·       It is Columbus Day in the US.  Stock markets are open, but the bond market is closed, as are most banks, and the US government is closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Anna Paulson speaks on “A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia" before the National Association for Business Economics 67th Annual Meeting," Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.”

·       Brazil Business Confidence (October)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (August)

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (September)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       President Xi Jinping to attend the opening ceremony of the Global Leaders’ Meeting on Women in Beijing, where he will deliver a keynote speech.

·       Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand travels to New Delhi to meet with meets with India’s Minister of External Affairs, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.  Anand then travels to Singapore for a meeting with Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan. From there, Anand travels to China for talks with China’s Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Services NZ PSI (September)/ Visitor Arrivals (August)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       India Inflation Rate (September)

·       Singapore Monetary Policy Statement

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Albania to meet with President Bajram Begaj and Prime Minister Edi Rama.  She will participate in the opening ceremony of the EU-Western Balkans Investment Forum.  Later, she travels to Montenegro to meet with President Jakov Milatovic and Prime Minister Milojko Spajic.

·       The 71st Annual Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly will be held in Ljubljana, Slovenia

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Trade Ministers through October 14 in  Horsens, Denmark.

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) in Luxembourg.  The ministers are expected to discuss the rule of law, the “fight against Russian impunity,” and Eurojust.

·       NATO’s annual two-week nuclear deterrence exercise Steadfast Noon will begin in the Netherlands.

·       German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis in Athens, Greece.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Committee Megan Greene delivers the keynote address at the SPE Annual Conference in London.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (August)

·       Turkey Current Account (August)/ Auto Production (September)/ Auto Sales (September)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Sharm El-Sheikh Summit for Peace will take place in Egypt.  Multiple Middle Eastern leaders and President Trump will attend the ceremony and witness the signing of the agreement to end the war in Gaza.

·       The remaining living Israeli hostages in Gaza will likely be released either today or tomorrow as part of the first phase of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement.

·       President Trump is expected to travel to Jerusalem, Israel, where he will address the Israeli Knesset.

·       Israel celebrates Simchat Torah Eve. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Oman Inflation Rate (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Global

·       The IMF publishes their World Economic Outlook report.

·       The International Energy Agency monthly oil market report is published.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti sanctions. In the morning, the Council will hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) followed by consultations.

·       The Institute for International Finance Annual Membership meeting begins in Washington, D.C. and runs through October 17. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump is expected to welcome Argentina’s President Javier Milei to the White House. They are expected to discuss the US’s recent bailout of the Argentine economy and regional security issues.

·       The 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber imports from Canada and elsewhere go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives a speech entitled “ Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers holds a fireside chat at the B.C. Business Summit in Vancouver.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on payments at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks and participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce.

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (September/Redbook (October/11)

·       Canada Building Permits (August)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Aeon, BlackRock, BP, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, LVMH, Publicis Groupe, Wells Fargo

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The U.S. and China are due to begin collecting port fees on each other's ships, in an escalating competition for the seas. Washington announced its docking charges earlier this year to challenge Chinese maritime dominance and revive American shipbuilding. On Friday, Beijing said it would respond in kind.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (September)     

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       Australia NAB Business Confidence (September)/ RBA Meeting Minutes

·       India WPI Food Index (September)/ WPI Fuel (September)/ WPI Inflation (September)/ WPI Manufacturing (September)

·       China New Yuan Loans (September)/ M2 Money Supply (September)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (September)/ Total Social Financing SE

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be a meeting of the EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss civil protection and health preparedness, the Schengen Agreement, Migration and other issues.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen travels to Bosnia and Herzegovina.  She will meet with the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina and meet with Chairwoman of the Council of Ministers Borjana Krišto; visits the Srebrenica Memorial Centre.

·       Today is Defender of Ukraine Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollone gives remarks at the ECR Expert Policy conference "What Future for the Digital Euro?" organized by European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum 2025 in New York.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the Ethics and Compliance Conference organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor presents remarks and a fireside chat with FT columnist Gillian Tett at Kings College, Cambridge, on ‘diversion ahead’.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (September)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (September)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany Inflation Rate (September)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ZEW Current Conditions (October)

·       Hungary Construction Output (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (October)/ ECB Donnery Speech     

·       France IEA Oil Market Report

·       Romania Current Account (August)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU-monitored Gaza-Egypt pedestrian border crossing reopens.

·       Today is Yemen Liberation Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (August)/ Mining Production (August)

Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Global

·       The IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings formally begin in Washington, D.C.

·       G7 Finance Ministers are expected to meet in Washington to discuss increasing pressure on Russia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the CNBC Invest in America Forum (virtual).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in moderated conversation and Q&A on “Economic Mobility" before the United Way Regional Summit on Economic Mobility for Children and Youth.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks on artificial intelligence at the 2025 D Fintech Week.

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/10)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/10)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (October)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/10)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (August)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (August)/ Wholesale Sales (August)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       EARNINGS: Abbot Laboratories, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services Group., Progressive

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Diet will hold an extraordinary session to elect a new prime minister.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock takes part in a fireside chat at the Nomura Research Forum in Washington, D.C.

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at a Citi conference in Sydney.

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (September)

·       China Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q3

·       India Unemployment Rate (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (September)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (September)/ GDP (September)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) meeting in Brussels. EU Defense Ministers will discuss the situation in Ukraine with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte chairing the session.

·       Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts the Arab League Summit in Moscow.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden travels to Serbia to meet with President Aleksandar Vučić and Prime Minister Đuro Macut.  Later, she travels to Kosovo to meet with President Vjosa Osmani and caretaker Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Later in the day, she travels to North Macedonia: to meet with President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova and Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski and then meets President of the Assembly Afrim Gashi.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening address at the 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.  Later, he gives remarks at the 25th anniversary of Alantra in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at 10th Anniversary Conference of the Single Resolution Mechanism in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates on a panel at the IIF Annual Membership meeting in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor, financial stability, Sarah Breeden is a panelist at the Fintech Foundation 2025 DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking David Ramsden speaks in a panel event at the Single Resolution Mechanism 10th Anniversary Conference in Brussels.

·       Romania Industrial Production (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (August)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (August)/ Residential Property Prices (August)            

·       Serbia Building Permits (August)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech

·       Turkey Budget Balance (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (September)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (August)/ SACCI Business Confidence (September)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 16, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (October)/ Housing Starts (September)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (August)

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (August)

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before a virtual Aiken County Chamber of Commerce event.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the economic outlook at the C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics with Governor Christopher J. Waller, New York, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech at the 2025 DC Fintech Week, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the 2025 Institute of International Finance (IIF) Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman speaks at the 2025 Federal Reserve Stress Testing Research Conference (virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Association for Business Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran speaks at the  Semafor Fall 2025 World Economy Summit, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on "Staying Sanguine About the Horizon" before the Richmond Risk Management Association.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a town hall hosted by Elevate Rapid City.

·       USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (October/NAHB Housing Market Index (October)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/10)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/10)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/16)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/15)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Initial Jobless Claims (October/11)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/27)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/04)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (October/11)/ PPI (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Business Inventories (August)

·       EARNINGS: Charles Schwab, Bank of New York Mellon, ABB, CSX, Interactive Brokers, KeyCorp, M&T Bank, Marsh McLennan, Nordea Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor, Travelers, United Airlines, US Bancorp

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Okinawa.

·       Australia Employment Change (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Participation Rate (September)

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (September)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (August)/BoJ JGB Purchase/ Tertiary Industry Index (August)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (September)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs Council (Employment and Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg.

·       The European Commission will unveil its "Roadmap for Defence Readiness." 

·       The 2025 Arctic Circle Assembly will meet in Iceland.  It is expected that more than 2,000 people representing more than 60 countries will attend.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in an IMF's Debate on the Global Economy: Shaping Economic Policies in the Face of Disruptive Change in Washington D.C., USA

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives a keynote speech at the SSM Conference on Digitalization in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a roundtable discussion "Central Banking and Supervision in a Geopolitically Fragmented World: Risks, Responses, and Cooperation" organized by Toronto Centre in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a panel panel "Monetary Crosscurrents: Rethinking Frameworks Amid Trade and Policy Fragmentation" at 2025 IIF Annual Membership Meeting "Growth and Innovation in an Uncertain World" in Washington D.C.,

·       Great Britain Goods Trade Balance (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Construction Output (August)/ GDP (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (September)

·       Switzerland SECO Economic Forecasts

·       Italy Inflation Rate (September)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (August)/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Lane Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (September)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (August)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September)

·       Ghana PPI (September)

Friday, October 17, 2025

Global

·       IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (August)

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem discusses the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Institute for International Finance Annual Membership Meeting.

·       USA Capacity Utilization (September)/ Industrial Production (September)/ Manufacturing Production (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (August)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (August)/ Housing Starts (September)/ Building Permits (September)/ Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)

·       EARNINGS: American Express, Fifth Third Bancorp, Huntington Bancshares, Truist Financial, State Street

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The KMT, Taiwan's biggest opposition party, chooses a new leader as it seeks a path back to power. The KMT has lost three straight presidential elections to the Democratic Progressive Party, most recently in January 2024. But it enjoys a legislative majority with its smaller partner, the Taiwan People's Party, and it has momentum after vanquishing efforts to recall some of its lawmakers this summer. The winner will be in a position to influence how Taiwan handles cross-strait tensions with China and tricky ties with the U.S..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (September)/ Import Prices (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/11)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/11)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore     Non-Oil Exports (September)/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (October/03)/ Deposit Growth (October/03)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/10)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives remarks and takes questions at the Institute of International Finance (IIF) "Addressing Regulatory Fragmentation" roundtable discussion in Washington D.C.

·       Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaks at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales Annual Conference.

·       Hungary Gross Wage (August)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ ECB Donnery Speech

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Serbia Current Account (August)

·       Belarus GDP (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (September)

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 18, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings continue in Washington, D.C.

·       UN Security Council Resolution 2231 will expire today, unless extended. The Security Council unanimously adopted the resolution endorsing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the Iran nuclear deal, in 2015.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bolivia Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates on a panel discussion at Group of Thirty opening panel "Global Economic Outlook" in Washington D.C.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Piero Cipollon participates on a panel discussion at Euro50Group meeting in Washington D.C.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 19, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/IMF Meetings conclude.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Bolivia holds presidential run-off elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Communist Party Fourth Plenum

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Northern Cyprus holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Listen to Venezuelan Opposition Leader Machado Learn She Has Won the Nobel Peace Prize, Preparing for Putin’s Death, How Ukraine has Crippled Russia’s Oil Lifeline, Where Could Reshoring Manufacturers Find Workers?

October 10 - 12, 2025

Each week, we gather up the best research and reports we have read in the past week and pass them on to you.  Below is this week’s curated collection.  We hope you find them interesting and informative, and that you have a great weekend.

Latin America

• Recording of the Nobel Prize Director calling Machado to inform her She has Won the Nobel Peace Prize    Twitter

  “Oh my God… I have no words.” Listen to the emotional moment this year’s laureate, Maria Corina Machado, leader of the Venezuelan democracy movement, finds out she has been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Kristian Berg Harpviken, Director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, shared the news with her directly before it was announced to the world.

• Escalation Against the Maduro Regime in Venezuela: Puerto Rico’s Emerging Role in U.S. Power Projection   Center for Strategic & International Studies

  The United States is overseeing a seismic reordering of defense priorities and assets to the Western Hemisphere. At the time of this writing, four destroyers, one cruiser, one nuclear-powered attack submarine, one landing helicopter dock, two amphibious vessels, and one special operations platform, alongside a host of enablers and support vessels, are present in the Caribbean. In total, more than 10 percent of all deployed U.S. naval assets are currently located in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. These forces are more than a mere show of force; since the first warships entered the region in August, the U.S. military has conducted at least four lethal strikes against alleged drug trafficking boats in international waters, killing at least 21.  The next phase of operations could witness strikes within Venezuelan territorial waters or even on land. Reportedly, the Trump administration has already drawn up strike packages for such contingencies, which are currently being reviewed by the president. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has notified Congress of his determination that the United States is involved in a “non-international armed conflict” against drug trafficking groups now designated as foreign terrorist organizations, suggesting that the tempo of operations will only increase in the coming weeks.

• Understanding Trump’s Shift on Brazil    Americas Quarterly

  Donald Trump’s Brazil strategy was not working. Instead of helping former President Jair Bolsonaro avoid prison or be allowed to run again in 2026, a barrage of U.S. tariffs and sanctions was having the opposite effect—hastening Bolsonaro’s conviction while boosting the popularity of his rival, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Brazil’s economy seemed to handle the strains surprisingly well, while a procession of business leaders to the White House in recent weeks warned of risks to U.S. inflation from coffee, beef, and other goods. So the U.S. president did what he has on other occasions: He listened. And then he changed course. Trump’s brief encounter with Lula at the United Nations, after which he proclaimed they had “excellent chemistry,” was not a chance meeting. And then they had a phone call. What comes next? 

Russia 

• Preparing for Putin’s Death     The Rand Corporation

  Vladimir Putin is the longest-serving Russian ruler since Joseph Stalin. He turns 73 on Oct. 7, old for a Russian, but even if he is fanatical about his health, he cannot continue indefinitely. It is essential to consider who might succeed him.  This is a challenging task—under Putin's rule, the Russian political system has, once again, become an authoritarian dictatorship bearing some of the features of a personality cult. Under these conditions, Putin has not, as far as we can tell, been publicly grooming a successor, presumably because his personal authority would begin to ebb to them, and because they would become a target for others who fear losing their influence.

• How Russia Recovered    Dara Massicot/Foreign Affairs

  The story of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been one of upset expectations and wild swings in performance. At the start of the war, most of NATO saw Russia as an unstoppable behemoth, poised to quickly defeat Ukraine. Instead, Russia’s forces were halted in their tracks and pushed back. Then, outside observers decided the Russian military was rotten, perhaps one counterattack away from collapse. That also proved incorrect—Ukrainian offensives failed, and Moscow resumed its slow advance. Now, plenty of people look beyond Russia to understand the state of the battlefield, blaming Kyiv’s troubles on insufficient external backing instead.  What many policymakers and strategists have missed is the extent to which Moscow has learned from its failures and adapted its strategy and approach to war, in Ukraine and beyond. Today, the military is institutionalizing its knowledge, realigning its defense manufacturers and research organizations to support wartime needs, and pairing tech startups with state resources.

• Ukraine’s Drone War Is Crippling Russia’s Oil Lifeline   National Security Journal

  Ukraine’s expanding long-range drone fleet has knocked nearly 40% of Russia’s oil refineries offline. According to an analysis by BeefeaterFella, with refined fuels yielding far higher margins than crude, Russia could be losing $3–6 billion annually in revenue, while shortages, rationing, and black markets spread at home.  Since January, 21 of Russia’s 38 major refineries have been struck, with successful Ukrainian attacks already 48% higher than in all of 2024, according to the BBC. The cascading effects are being felt far from the battlefield. Owners of small petrol stations in Siberia told Russian media they were forced to close due to supply shortfalls, with one manager in Novosibirsk comparing the crisis to the hyperinflation of post-Soviet Russia.

Trade, Tariffs, and Reshoring of Manufacturing

• Where Could Reshoring Manufacturers Find Workers?    Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  The announcement of new tariffs this year has reignited the discussion of whether the United States can expand its manufacturing employment by millions of workers. Reversing decades of manufacturing job losses is one explicit goal of the new higher tariffs. This District Data Brief presents measures of employment and demographics as context around the current and potential employment in US manufacturing. Raising manufacturing employment by 4 to 6 million workers would constitute a large increase relative to current levels. However, an increase of this scale would not be large relative to the global growth of manufacturing employment in recent decades, the current US labor force size, or the number of US adults not engaged in high-paying work

• SORCE Insights: Tariff-Related Uncertainty and Pass-Through to Pricing   The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  In the Survey of Regional Conditions and Expectations (SORCE) fielded in June 2025, the Cleveland Fed asked respondents a set of special questions about the impact of tariffs and tariff-related uncertainty on costs, selling prices, staffing, and capital expenditure plans. Most respondents (64 percent) said that they were incurring costs caused by uncertainty over tariff rates, the direct expenses of paying tariffs, or both. Of these respondents, 68 percent expected to pass through at least some of those costs to their customers. About one in five firms said that they had scaled back plans to hire staff or make capital expenditures because of uncertainty over tariff rates.

• Who Will Pay for Tariffs? Businesses’ Expectations about Costs and Prices   Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

  Amid evolving global trade policy and rising tariff uncertainty, understanding how small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) form expectations about future costs and adjust their pricing is critical for assessing how the recently imposed tariffs on US imports could impact consumer prices. To that end, this brief analyzes several waves of a survey of owners and other decision-makers at a nationally representative sample of US SMBs. It focuses on waves conducted during the period of December 2024 to August 2025. Key Takeaways from this paper include:

  • From December 2024 to April 2025, the share of SMBs expecting larger tariffs increased considerably; expectations about the size of future tariffs also increased over time. 

  • In the August 2025 survey wave, SMBs whose costs are affected by the new tariffs reported paying an average tariff rate in July 2025 (11.4%) that was nearly double the average rate they paid in January 2025 (6.5%). 

  • SMBs that believe the new tariffs will persist for a year or longer expect to pass through as much as three times more of their cost increases into consumer prices compared with SMBs that believe the new tariffs will be short-lived. 

  • A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests a 0.75 percent near-term increase in core consumer prices stemming from recent tariff increases on directly imported consumer goods.

Global Week Ahead

Israeli-Hamas Peace Talks Take a Big Step, Trump Meetings with Canada’s Carney, the EU Parliament Holds No-Confidence Votes, the US Government Looks to Be Shut Another Week, and Markets Await a Flood of Central Bank Speeches

October 5 - 12, 2025

The world is watching events unfold in the Middle East as Hamas appears to be ready to accept a good portion of President Trump’s peace plan proposal, including releasing all remaining hostages (just as we come up on the 2 year anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on Israel).  There are several unresolved points but US negotiators led by Jared Kushner and Steven Witkoff are in Egypt now working to finalize the deal but there is real hope the hostages will be released this week.

Also this week, President Trump has invited Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to meet with him at the White House on Tuesday to discuss both trade issues as well as mutual security concerns.  Trade negotiators have been careful not to oversell the outcome of the meeting but there is hope a deal can be struck between the two leaders.

Meanwhile in Washington, the federal government shutdown continues, and House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) has announced the House of Representatives will not return to work unless Democrats accept the continuing resolution they passed two weeks ago.  At this point, we do not see a deal emerging soon but there is always hope.

In Europe, the European Parliament is scheduled to hold two no-confidence votes against EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden.  This is the second time no-confidence votes have been brought against von der Leyden in the last three months. While both votes are expected to fail, it shows how split the Parliament is on issues ranging from trade to climate.

Staying in Europe, the Nobel Committee will begin announcing winners of their prestigious prize on Monday.  The Nobel Peace Prize will be announced on Friday, and the Nobel Prize for Economics will be announced next Monday.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen, markets are awaiting a flood of speeches from central bankers.  In the US alone, we count sixteen Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve President speeches over the course of five days, including a speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell. 

And in the EU, we count eleven scheduled European Central Bank (ECB) board member speeches including two from ECB President Christine Lagarde (and more are expected to be announced) plus Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaking in Scotland. That is a lot of data for the markets to take in and, in our view, a bit odd considering the week of October 12th is the Annual IMF/World Bank meetings in Washington, DC where there will be countless central bankers speaking.

With the US government shutdown still going, there will be limited economic data releases.  The Federal Reserve releases minutes from their last Open Market Meeting.  And the University of Michigan consumer survey is out Friday.

In Asia, China’s Gold Week holiday continues until October 8th.   Japan, which has just elected its first woman as Prime Minister, releases its Regional Economic Report on Monday and the Consumer Activity Index on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds its annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

·       Israel is expected to begin mediated negotiations with Hamas in Cairo, Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Monday, October 6, 2025

Global

·       The Nobel Committee begins announcing winners of prizes. Today’s prize will be for physiology or medicine.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Women and Peace and Security.

·       The World Trade Organization’s General Council meeting takes place in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Supreme Court begins a new term, hearing cases.

·       Unless there is a last-minute breakthrough agreement between Congressional Republicans and Democrats over a Continuing Resolution bill, the federal government will remain shut this week and the House of Representatives will stay out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid speaks to CFA Society Kansas City on the economic outlook and monetary policy.

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Colombia Exports (August)/ PPI (September)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Azerbaijan hosts the 12th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (September)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (September)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Parliament is expected to hold two separate no-confidence vote son European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sometime this week.  Both votes are expected to fail.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at the Scotland’s Global Investment Summit 2025 being held in Edinburgh.

·       European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos gives the opening remarks at the Diario Expansión: XVI Encuentro Financiero in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2025: bridging science and practice in Frankfurt, Germany

·       Romania Retail Sales (August)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (August)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (August)

·       Spain Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ ECB Lane Speech/ Retail Sales (August)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

·       France HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Construction PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (September)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (September)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (September)

·       Serbia PPI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)

·       Jordan PPI (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Armed Forces Day in Egypt.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Cooperation between the United Nations and regional and subregional organizations (AU).

·       Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days event begins and runs through October 8. This will be closely watched by economist for any slowdown in shopping by consumers.

·       The 2025 Nobel Prize for Chemistry is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US President Donald Trump will host Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the White House for talks on trade.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference, St. Louis, Mo. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran

·       Sits for a fireside chat at the Managed Funds Association (MFA) Policy Outlook 2025 in New York.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen Miran gives a talk at the Deutsche Bank 2025 Fall Macro Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic participates in discussion on the economic outlook at event hosted by Fisk University.

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation on artificial intelligence and the economy before the Star Tribune North Star Summit 2025.

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Mexico Auto Exports (September)/ Auto Production (September)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (September)

·       USA Redbook (October/04)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (October)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Consumer Credit Change (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (October/03)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Used Car Prices (September)

·       Brazil Car Production (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The FIATA World Congress – global freight forwarders – in Hanoi, Vietnam to discuss various topics, such as challenges in the new global trade landscape and how to navigate them. Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is scheduled to attend the event

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q3/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q3/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (October/07)       

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (October)/ Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (October)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (September)/ RBA Annual Report 2025

·       Japan Household Spending (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Coincident Index (August)/ Leading Economic Index (August)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (September)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Motorbike Sales (September)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Singapore     Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech followed by a Q&A session at Business France event 'Business en Européens' in Paris, France.

·       Germany Factory Orders (August)

·       Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (September)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (September)/ Treasury Gilt 2028 Tender

·       Hungary Industrial Production August)

·       France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)/ Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (September)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       This is the 2nd anniversary of Hamas’ horrific attack on civilians in Israel and taking of hostages.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Global

·       In the morning, the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a private meeting on Somalia and the 2713 Committee. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).  

·       In Washington, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva gives a curtain raiser speech for the upcoming 2025 Annual Meetings being held next week.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve releases FOMC minutes

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks at the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference in St. Louise, Missouri.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr speaks on community development and Indian Country the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Center for Indian Country Development 10th Anniversary and Data Summit: Braiding the Past and Future of Native Economies, Minneapolis, Minnesota.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Community Banking Research Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (October/03)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (October/03)/ MBA Purchase Index (October/03)/EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (October/03)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Paris Europlace Forum 20254 will take place in Tokyo.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Uedo speaks at the 2025 Paris Europlace Forum in Tokyo.

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (August)/ Overtime Pay (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Bank Lending (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchase/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Survey (September)

·       Australia Building Permits (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (August)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Thailand Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a pre-recorded video message at 55th anniversary event of the Werner Report "Itinéraires luxembourgeois et européens" in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates on a panel discussion at International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion at the International Conference on Finance organized by Finantsinspektsioon in Tallin, Estonia.

·       Germany Industrial Production (August)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ Budget Balance (September)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (August)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Poland Interest Rate Decision (October)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Angola Inflation Rate (September)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (September)

Thursday, October 9, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).     

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for Literature is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. (via pre-recorded video)

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives a speech entitled “Future of Community Banking: Challenges and Opportunities” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon, Minneapolis, Minesota.

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Looking Toward the Future” at the Community Bank Conference, Washington, D.C. 

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers speaks in Toronto.

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (September)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (October/04)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (October/03)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/09)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/08)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/20)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (October/04)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (October/04)/ Reuters Tankan Index (October)/ Machine Tool Orders (September)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (October)                 

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (August)

·       Philippines Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (September)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg.  The EU Finance Ministers will discuss macroeconomic and fiscal monitoring including preparation for upcoming international meetings.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers through October 10 in Brussels.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a roundtable discussion and Q&A at the Irish Association of Investment Managers in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (September)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (August)

·       Israel Composite Economic Index (August)   

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Uganda Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Manufacturing Production (August)

Friday, October 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

·       The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient is announced.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in fireside chat before the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce Public Policy Speaker's Series.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives opening remarks and moderates a discussion before the 19th annual Community Bankers Symposium, “Community Banking: Charting the Course" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

·       Brazil PPI (August)

·       Mexico Industrial Production (August)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (September)/ Employment Change (September)/ Full & Part Time Employment Change (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Wages (September)

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October)/Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/10)/ Monthly Budget Statement (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te is expected to deliver a national day address.

·       Tajikistan will host a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Dushanbe.   They will simultaneously host the 2ndCentral Asia-Russia Summit.  Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to attend both events.

·       North Korea is expected to show off its newest weapons at a large military parade to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers' Party. High-ranking officials from China and Russia are expected to participate. The last time North Korea held a large military parade was in July 2023 to mark the 70th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (September)

·       Australia RBA Bullock Speech/ RBA Kent Speech

·       Japan PPI (September)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (July)

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision/ PPI (September)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/26)/ Deposit Growth (September/26)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (October/03)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will visit India through October 10th.

·       In Slovenia, the 2025 Nato Parliamentary Assembly Annual Session, where 281 parliamentary members from 32 Nato member states are due to discuss Euro-Atlantic Defence and the continent’s security agenda.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Telecommunications Ministers in Brussels.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg.  Ministers will discuss financing the EU Budget, taxation of tobacco, climate financing, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Romania Balance of Trade (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (August)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (August)

·       Italy Industrial Production (August)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (August)

·       Greece Industrial Production (August)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (September)

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (September)

·       Russia Inflation Rate (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (September)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Naura holds parliamentary elections and a referendum on the Constitution.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Scottish National party annual three-day conference begins in Aberdeen.

·       In Belfast, Northern Ireland’s Ulster Unionist party annual conference open.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds the 2nd round of National Assembly elections.

·       IN the Seychelles, the conclusion of a three-day presidential run-off election after no candidate secured the required 50 per cent majority in the first-round vote, held on September 27.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 2025 World Health Summit opens, an international strategic forum for global health, begins in Berlin, running until next Tuesday

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Cameroon holds presidential elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

America’s Secret Weapon for its Critical Weapons Strategy, How China’s Economy is Weathering the Economic Storm, AI’s Exponential Growth is Not Impacting the Labor Market, and What Impact Pharma Tariffs Will Have on Healthcare Costs

October 3 - 5, 2025

Each week, we gather up the best research and reports we have read in the past week and pass them on to you.  Below is this week’s curated collection.  We hope you find them interesting and informative, and that you have a great weekend.

Updates on the Global Race for Critical Minerals

• The Secret Weapon in America’s Critical Minerals Strategy    Hudson Institute’s “First Breakfast”

  Since 1980, leaders in Washington have stressed the need to secure rare earth supply chains to achieve strategic independence from America’s adversaries.  In the coming weeks, Congress will decide on legislation reauthorizing the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the little-known agency established during the first Trump administration as a counterweight to China’s predatory investment practices under its Belt & Road Initiative. The DFC maintains a dual mandate to advance U.S. foreign policy and economic development by mobilizing the private sector abroad, injecting capital, and offering insurance to support projects that further U.S. strategic goals. Given the great demand for rare earths and their refined products here at home, the DFC presents an opportunity to work with our foreign partners and American businesses to bolster our supply chains abroad. This is not a new idea; the creators of the BUILD Act, which authorized the DFC, envisioned the agency investing in key industries like mining, energy, and logistics. Unfortunately, results in the mineral sector have fallen short of these aspirations. Since operations began in December 2019, the DFC has made nearly 650 investments, fewer than a dozen of which are in mining-related projects.

• Leveraging US-Africa critical mineral opportunities: Strategies for success   Brookings Institution

  The U.S. is highly dependent on imports of critical minerals, but existing supply chains are vulnerable, plagued with high geographic concentration, slow mine development, and under-researched reserves. The authors argue for why Africa is uniquely positioned to partner with the U.S. in a supply chain realignment, given the former’s significant reserves, existing mining and refining infrastructure, and business opportunities along development corridors. With other countries such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union entering into the African critical minerals sector, the U.S. should not be left behind.  The authors provide actionable recommendations to both the U.S. and African countries for creating and growing a mutually beneficial critical minerals partnership.

Russia & China 

• Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War     China Leadership Monitor

  China is weathering deflation, a property-sector collapse, and renewed trade tensions with the United States through calculated restraint rather than panic. Exports remain resilient via market diversification and price cuts. Chinese leaders are deploying targeted fiscal interventions, pursuing supply-side reforms, and combating “involution”–destructive race-to-the-bottom competition eroding profits across industries. This strategic patience reveals Beijing’s fundamental gamble: accept short-term economic pain to build long-term technological dominance and self-sufficiency. The leadership believes that the emerging high-tech sectors will ultimately replace both lost export markets and the crumbling property engine. This is a high-stakes bet on China’s ability to transform its economic model under pressure.

• With Putin in Charge, Russia’s Vassalage to China Will Only Deepen     Carnegie Politika

  Moscow should be looking for ways to correct its course and restore balance in its foreign policy, instead of putting all its eggs in the China basket. But Putin is no pragmatic decision-maker, and the deepening vassalage to China is his own choice.

• Global FDI is uncoupling from China   Robin Brook’s Substack

  Brooks writes: “A few weeks ago, I wrote a post about how foreign investors have been putting less money to work in China, with non-resident flows into China a lot weaker since the invasion of Ukraine. Weaker foreign flows into China stand in contrast to flows to the rest of EM, where inflows have rebounded to very robust levels. This suggests that global markets - in the wake of the Ukraine invasion - are paying closer attention to geopolitical risks and are taking a more cautious approach to China.”

•  Don’t Overestimate the Autocratic Alliance     Foreign Affairs

  No moment captured the shifting global balance of power more vividly than when Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un walked in lockstep on the red carpet at China’s military parade in early September. The three autocrats, despite a long history of mutual suspicion, projected a show of unity against Washington. The message behind the carefully managed scene was unmistakable: China is at the center of a rising anti-Western bloc, while the United States is adrift—divided at home, faltering abroad, and rebuffed by its rivals.   But beneath this show of solidarity, China, North Korea, and Russia remain uneasy partners. What the three countries have is a tactical alignment rooted not in trust or shared values but in overlapping grievances and necessity. History demonstrates that they are not natural allies. Each state remains wary of entrapment and is unwilling to subordinate its national interests to those of the others. And crucially, each still seeks something from the United States—leverage that Washington must wield wisely.

Geoeconomics

• Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs    The Yale Budget Lab

  The Yale Budget Lab looks at how AI is impacting employment – specifically, whether it is causing an increase in unemployment.  Their report shows that overall, their metrics indicate that the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago, undercutting fears that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy.
  

• The Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index        Bertelsmann Stiftung/ECIPE

  In today’s European neighborhood, trade, investment, and economic policy have become deeply entangled with geopolitical competition — involving the EU, the United States, China, and Russia as leading geoeconomic actors. The Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index brings together a wide range of indicators across trade, investment, and economic policy in an accessible, comparable format. Covering the years 2010 to 2023, it provides a clear picture of evolving patterns of economic engagement.  The Index is designed to support timely and informed debate on the EU’s external policies — offering insights that matter in a geoeconomic age.

• How Pharmaceutical Tariffs Will Affect US Health Care Costs       Alex Brill/AEI Economic Perspectives

  Tariffs on pharmaceuticals are under consideration following a Section 232 investigation into imports of medicines and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). With US imports in 2024 totaling $210.8 billion in finished medicines and $36.2 billion in APIs, the threat of tariffs puts nearly $250 billion in trade at risk. Tariffs could raise list or net prices for pharmaceuticals, drive up insurance premiums, increase the risk of drug shortages, elevate costs for US producers using imported APIs, and reduce the competitiveness of US exports of finished drugs.

•  War, Geopolitics, Energy Crisis: How the Economy Evades Every Disaster   The Economist

  The world economy appears impressively and increasingly shock-absorbent. Supply chains in goods—widely believed to be a source of fragility—have shown themselves to be resilient. A more diverse supply of energy and a less fossil-fuel-intensive economy have reduced the impact of changes in the oil price. And across the world, economic policymaking has improved. According to the conventional narrative, the “great moderation”, a period of steady growth and predictable policymaking, ran from the late 1980s to the global financial crisis of 2007-09. But perhaps it did not die alongside Lehman Brothers.  This year, just 5% of countries are on track for a recession, according to IMF data—the least since 2007. Unemployment in the OECD club of rich countries is below 5% and close to a record low. In the first quarter of 2025, global corporate earnings rose by 7% year on year. Emerging markets, long prone to capital flight in times of trouble, now tend to avoid currency or debt crises (see chart 3). Consumers across the world, despite claiming to be down in the dumps, spend freely. On almost any measure, the economy is basically fine. 

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

A Government Shutdown Looms – And A Large Number of Federal Workers May be Fired, the SEC and CFTC Hold a Cooperation Roundtable, and the White House Seems To Be Looking for a New CFTC Chair

September 29 - October 3, 2025

Congress was out of session last week doing “home business” – meaning, back in their home states, talking to constituents and trying to let cooler heads prevail in hammering out a possible short-term funding deal to keep the federal government open. 

The deadline is midnight Tuesday, and as of this writing, we would suggest there is an 80 percent chance a shutdown will happen.  But what comes next appears unprecedented: The White House’s Office of Management and Budget has sent federal departments and agencies a memo outlining how they intend to fire large numbers of federal workers instead of furloughing them.  Congressional Democrats absolutely do not want to see that happen and are now feeling pressure to cut a deal.  But we do not see a deal coming together that quickly – so, this could be quite a big week for Washington.

While all this is going on, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodities Futures Trading Commission are holding a “Joint Roundtable on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts.”   For those old, grizzled former SEC and CFTC officials (like me), this is a bit of a shock as the two agencies have held each other at arm’s length for, well, decades.  The two regulators have resisted doing anything that could suggest “harmonization” between them because that could suggest a merger (there have been many battles have been fought over this idea over the last 40 years).

Looking at what we learned in the past week, there were numerous reports that the White House is now vetting Milbank, Tweed partner Josh Sterling to be the new CFTC Chair.  It remains quite a mystery as to why the White House is backing away from Brian Quintenz as the nominee.  Quintenz has already had his confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee, and beyond the Winklevoss Twins apparently complaining about him to President Trump, there have been no real complaints or problems with his nomination.

Below is a listing of all the rest of the major regulatory events in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Tuesday, September 30, 10:30 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will consider the nominations of Benjamin Hobbs and Ronald Kurtz to both be Assistant Secretaries of Housing and Urban Development, Chris Pilkerton to be Assistant Secretary for Investment Security, and Jonathan Burke to be Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing, both of the Department of the Treasury.

• Wednesday, October 1, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing to examine how to tax digital assets.

House of Representatives

• The House of Representatives may or may not be out of session this week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Monday, September 29, 7:30 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller will give a speech on payments at the Sibos 2025 Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Monday, September 29, 8:00 a.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in a policy panel before the hybrid "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025" hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Center for Inflation Research, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

• Monday, September 29, 1:30 p.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks before the event, "The Past, Present and Future of the Federal Reserve".

• Monday, September 29, 1:30 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in a conversation organized by the Rochester Institute of Technology.

• Monday, September 29, 6:00 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a conversation on Atlanta's economy, air travel, and leadership as part of the Atlanta Fed Leading Voices Series.

• Tuesday, September 30, 6:00 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on Monetary Policy Frameworks and the US Economic Outlook at the Bank of Finland International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

• Tuesday, September 30, 12:30 p.m. -- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest Agriculture Conference: Midwest Agriculture and Trade Uncertainty.

• Tuesday, September 30, Noon – Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins makes remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations’ C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York. 

• Thursday, October 2, 6:10 p.m. – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated conversation before the UT Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference.

• Friday, October 3, 6:05 a.m. EST -- New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium organized by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)

• Friday, October 3,  1:40 p.m.  – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on the US Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework at the Drexel Economic Forum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Tuesday, September 29, 1:00 p.m. – 5:30 pm. – The SEC-CFTC Joint Roundtable on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts takes place at SEC Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Tuesday, September 29, 1:00 p.m. – 5:30 pm. – The SEC-CFTC Joint Roundtable on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts takes place at SEC Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

EU Leaders Discuss defense and Ukraine aid; Trump talks Gaza with Netanyahu; US Nears Government Shutdown, and Markets Await Numerous Central Bank Speeches

September 28 - October 5, 2025

It is going to be another fast and furious week for markets to absorb and analyze.  We believe the most important event of the week might be a gathering of EU leaders in Copenhagen on Wednesday to discuss common defense issues, how to better support Ukraine militarily, and possible enlargement.  But the main topic will be how they can collectively respond to the spike of Russian intrusions into Polish, Romanian, Danish, and Latvian airspace with fighter jets and drones.  The Russian actions can no longer be considered “accidental” and are clearly both a provocation and a testing of NATO response capabilities. 

In last week’s report, we noted EU leaders were starting to consider the building of a “drone wall” on the border with Russia.  The meeting in Copenhagen will likely solidify the plans.  It may even authorize the use of frozen Russian assets to fund the layered defense strategy, which would include advanced radar, anti-aircraft missiles, and drones to counter any future Russian airspace trespassing.

The meetings will take place after Sunday’s elections in Moldova, which are being closely watched for potential Russian interference.  The Moldovan government has already banned two political parties from participating in the election due to their alleged ties to the Kremlin.  Concerns are rising over potential civil unrest in the coming days, potentially instigated by Russia.  As of this writing Sunday night, the pro-EU Party is leading in the vote count.

Meanwhile, in Washington on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet at the White House with President Trump – their fourth such meeting this year at the White House – to discuss the crisis in Gaza and Israeli threats to begin annexing the West Bank – something President Trump has now voiced opposition to.   While at the United Nations last week, Trump convened a meeting of Arab leaders to discuss potential Gaza peace options, and he is likely to discuss them with Netanyahu during the meeting.  The deal contains 21 proposals and according to various reports, leaves the door open for the creation of a new Palestinian state.

Staying in Washington for a moment, markets are closely watching to see if Congress can hammer out a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown on Wednesday.  President Trump has agreed to meet with Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders on Monday to discuss a possible deal.  Otherwise, the House of Representatives, who passed a short-term Continuing Resolution to keep the government open before they left for the week last week, may not come back into session this week in an effort to force Senate Democrats into accepting their bill (Translation: you’d better vote for it or the shutdown is all your fault – and we won’t be here for another week to try again).  For Democrats, the real risk of this is the White House is threatening to fire – instead of furloughing – large numbers of federal workers if there is a shutdown, something Democrats absolutely want to avoid happening (but we would note, this is clearly an indicator of where the Trump Administration wants to go with the 2026 budget which Congress will be working on later this fall – massive shrinkage of the federal government, continuing the DOGE effort first begun by Elon Musk).

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, in the US, the major data reports being released will focus on employment, with the JOLTS report scheduled for Tuesday and the ADP report for Wednesday.   Also released this week are the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Index and ADP employment report on Wednesday, indices on Wednesday and Friday, and factory orders on Thursday.  The ISM Services Index is scheduled for release on Friday.

Turning to Asia, Japan’s industrial production figures and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions are out on Tuesday, and the Tankan survey is out on Wednesday.  On Tuesday, China releases September PMIs, and the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to discuss interest rates.

In Europe, markets are awaiting the flash CPIs for Germany, France, and Italy on Tuesday, as well as the Eurozone CPIs on Wednesday.  Also, there are a number of central bank speeches being given this week, including two policy speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (Tuesday and Friday) and one by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Friday).

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 28, 2025

 Global

·       The UN General Assembly continues through Monday, September 29th.

·       UN Sanctions against Iran “snap back” into place due to Iran’s refusal to maintain inspections of its nuclear program.

·       The 7th Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Material Sciences and Nanotechnology takes place in Brazil.

·       The 4th  Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Geospatial Technologies and its Application takes place in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.  There is significant concern about likely Russian interference in the election.  Moldovan authorities barred two pro-Russia parties from this Sunday’s election. 

·       The chair of Russia's State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, will visit Vietnam through September 29th.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

·       The UK Labor Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (specifically, the situation in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will again host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza and the West Bank.

·       Ukrainian defense officials will travel to Washington to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller will give a speech on payments a the Sibos 2025 Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in a policy panel, "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025," hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Center for Inflation Research, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks at an event, "The Past, Present and Future of the Federal Reserve".

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in a conversation organized by the Rochester Institute of Technology.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a conversation on Atlanta's economy, air travel, and leadership as part of the Atlanta Fed Leading Voices Series.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)

·       / Pending Home Sales (August)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (August)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Current Account Q2

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Carnival

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur concludes.

·       The Asian Development Bank releases its latest economic assessment report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi speaks at the Sapporo Chamber of Commerce and Industry Conference.

·       Philippines PPI (August)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Singapore Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

·       India Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The final results of the Moldovan elections are announced.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), one of the main elements of the 2028-2034 long-term EU budget (the forthcoming multiannual financial framework (MFF).  They will then hear a presentation on simplification, and exchange views on the Single Market Strategy.

· The Warsaw Security Forum will be held in Warsaw, Poland, through September 30th.  On the sidelines of the Forum, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet with his counterparts from Ukraine, France, and Poland as part of the “Weimar Triangle.”

·       The Sibos Conference begins in Frankfurt, Germany, and runs through October 2. The theme of the conference is “The Next Frontiers of Global Finance” and will feature hundreds of speakers, including leading central bankers and government officials from around the world.  

·       The Vaclav Havel Rights Award will be announced in Strasbourg, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech followed by a fireside chat at the Baltic Digital Euro Conference titled 'Payments & Policy in a Changing Environment' organized by Eesti Pank in Tallinn, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on 'Current aspects of monetary policy' with the Committee on Economic and Monetary Policy of the Association of German Banks in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic chairs panel at European Bank Coordination initiative in Brussels 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at '10 years of the SRM - a decade delivering a more resilient financial system' organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at 'Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025' conference organized by the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Euro Economic Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Approvals (August)/ Mortgage Lending (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Energy Week begins in Cape Town, South Africa, where senior government leaders and the OPEC Secretary General will gather to discuss energy policy for the continent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision 

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti. Then it will hold a briefing on MONUSCO, the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, followed by consultations..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to speak to Brazilian President Lula regarding US tariffs on Brazil.

·       The US Senate returns after a week off for home business.  It is unclear whether the House of Representatives will return, however, as Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) has suggested he may keep the body from returning to try to force Senate Democrats to vote in favor of the Continuing Resolution the House passed ten days ago to keep the government open.

·       At midnight, unless the US Congress passes a continuing resolution to fund the federal government, there will be a government shutdown.  The Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Voight, has threatened to fire large numbers of civil servants instead of simply furloughing them.

·       The Regional Dialogue of the Fourth International Symposium on Transboundary Waters in Latin America and the Caribbean will take place in Lima, Peru, through October  2nd, with participation by government authorities and the Inter-American Development Bank.

·       Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth convenes an extraordinary meeting of top military officials at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on Monetary Policy Frameworks and the US Economic Outlook at the Bank of Finland International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins makes remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations’ C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York. 

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest Agriculture Conference: Midwest Agriculture and Trade Uncertainty

·       USA Redbook (September/27)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ Chicago PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn/ Soy/ Wheat (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/26)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Current Account Q2

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Nike

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is China National Day, otherwise known as Martyrs’ Day.

·       North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will visit China through September 30th.

·       Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will meet South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in Busan, South Korea, through October. 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and press conference Australia Private Sector Credit (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)/ Housing Credit (August)/ Building Permits (August)/Cotality Dwelling Prices (September)

·       China NBS General/Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing PMI (September)/ RatingDog General & Services & Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Current Account Q2

·       Singapore Bank Lending (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       India Government Budget Value (August)/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research) will meet in Brussels. Ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on the importance of research and innovation for the EU Startup and Scaleup Strategy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 4th Bank of Finland's International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       The Bank of Finland will organize the 4th International Monetary Policy Conference on Monetary Policy in the Shadow of Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Conflicts (virtual).

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the S&P Global Ratings 2025 European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion titled 'View from the Top: Securing Europe; s financial future - Resilience, autonomy, and global impact' at Sibos in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at a high-level event, 'Climate action that works for you - An agenda for competitiveness, prosperity and resilience' in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Cardiff Business School.

·       Germany Retail Sales (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/Baden-Württemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q2/ Business Investment Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ BoE Lombardelli Speech/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE L Mann Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (August)/ PPI (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       Turkey Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

·       Italy PPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Current Account (July)

·       Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Sales (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Current Account (August)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: Tesco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which went into effect 25 years ago, expires. The Act allowed duty-free trade between a number of African nations and the US.

·       The West Africa Mining Security Conference begins in Accra, Ghana.

·       Today is Botswana Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Global

·       Russia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.  There will be a press briefing by Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month, on the Programme of Work for the month of October they intend to pursue.

·       Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish year, begins at sundown and ends at nightfall on October 2nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, large trucks, and other goods go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/26)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/26)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers sits for a fireside chat at Canada’s Competition Summit 2025 in Ottawa, Ontario.

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q2

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: ConAgra, Acuity

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day of the People’s Republic of China, celebrating Mao Zedon’g formal proclamation of the establishment of the communist state – otherwise known as Golden Week.  Observed on October 1st, another six days are added to the official holiday.

·       Today is Tuvalu Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/ RBA Chart Pack/ Commodity Prices (September)

·       Japan Tankan Large All Industry/ Manufacturers Index Q3/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September/19)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of state in Copenhagen.  EU leaders will discuss how to strengthen Europe’s defense, also in light of Russia’s recent airspace violations in several EU member states.  They will also discuss ways of further supporting Ukraine.

·       Russia officially begins its annual autumn military conscription.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with his counterparts from the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Sochi, Russia.

·       Greece is bracing for a general nationwide strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give a one-on-one interview and then participate in a panel discussion at the POLITICO Competitive Europe Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at the ECB Industry Dialogue on Climate and nature risk management: Taking stock and looking ahead in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Hungry HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

·       Euro HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, October 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated conversation before the UT Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Factory Orders (August)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/01)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada BoC Mendes Speech

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 62nd US–Japan Business Conference begins in Tokyo and runs through Saturday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/27)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ RBA Financial Stability Review/ Household Spending (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

·       Russia GDP (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 7th European Political Community begins in Copenhagen, Denmark.  More than 50 European leaders will participate as well as the EU Parliament, EU Commission, and the European Council.

·       French unions have called for nationwide strikes today in opposition to proposed parliamentary austerity proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a fireside chat at EC-EIB-ESM Capital Markets Seminar in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at ESADE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

·       Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (September)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (September)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guinea Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

Friday, October 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on the US Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework at the Drexel Economic Forum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium organized by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Government Payrolls (September)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/03)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (July)

·       Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates National Foundation Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to a group of business leaders in Osaka.

·       Australia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany celebrates the 35th anniversary of reunification.  French President Emmanuel Macron will join German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Saarbrucken to celebrate.

·       The Czech Republic holds elections for its Chamber of Deputies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot, 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities', organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party holds its leadership elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia will hold municipal elections to select mayors and members of local representative councils, the Sakrebulo.

·       Today in Germany is National Unity Day, celebrating German reunification.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Lesotho Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds it annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Geopolitics of Trump’s War on Drugs, America Loves Cocaine Again,  What is Stablecoin?, How Many Manufacturing Jobs Will Tariffs Create, and The Growing Link Between Marriage, Fertility, and Partisanship

September 26 - 28, 2025

Each week, we gather up the best research and reports we have read in the past week and pass them on to you.  Below is this week’s curated collection.  We hope you find them interesting and informative, and that you have a great weekend.

The Geopolitics of Trump‘s War on Drug Cartels 

• The Wrong Way to Fight the Cartels    Ryan Berg/Foreign Affairs

  Since returning to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to defeat the Western Hemisphere’s violent drug traffickers by any means necessary. In a March address to Congress, Trump declared, “The cartels are waging war in America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels.”  Washington has left behind its traditional conception of the fight against transnational criminal organizations as a matter of law enforcement with its threats of “war” and consideration of military action against the cartels.  A militarized approach may be a politically attractive way for Trump to project strength. And indeed, the United States can, and should, draw on many valuable lessons from the last two decades of counterterrorism missions during the “war on terror” in its campaign against the cartels. But there is a more productive path forward than drastically shifting the rules of engagement with transnational criminal groups.

• The Geopolitics of Trump’s War on Drugs     Americas Quarterly

  Half a century after former U.S. President Richard Nixon launched the war on drugs, global cocaine output and consumption are at record highs. According to the UN’s latest drug report, cocaine production jumped roughly a third in 2023 to over 3,700 tons, with usage rising to an estimated 25 million people. Over the past decade, narcotics supply chains have diversified, and demand has hardly blinked.   President Donald Trump’s second term has repackaged the drug war with sharper geopolitical edges. While fentanyl from Chinese sources seemed to be the president’s main focus during his campaign, the more traditional target of cocaine has lately become more prominent. Washington has pledged to “disrupt the supply chain from tooth to tail” and to “partner with – or otherwise hold accountable” source countries, language mirrored in the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) National Drug Threat Assessment 2024. 

•  America Loves Cocaine Again—Mexico’s New Drug King Cashes In    The Wall Street Journal

  Cocaine sold in the U.S. is cheaper and as pure as ever for retail buyers. Consumption in the western U.S. has increased 154% since 2019 and is up 19% during the same period in the eastern part of the country, according to the drug-testing company Millennium Health. In contrast, fentanyl use in the U.S. began to drop in mid-2023 and has been declining since, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  For new users, cocaine doesn’t carry the stigma of fentanyl addiction. Middle-class addicts and the tragic spectacle of homeless crack-cocaine users in the 1990s helped put a lid on America’s last cocaine epidemic.

Geoeconomics

• ‘Capital absorption’ is big in economic development. But what is it?   Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

  The term “capital absorption” is not well-known or easily understood. But it’s critical in the local economic development world, and I recently heard an analogy I think can help people understand it. Picture an irrigation system designed to direct the flow of money to the projects that need it most. Such a system frees communities from merely hoping that the unpredictable “rainfall” of funding falls in the right place. Instead, the system guarantees it gets there. That’s what capital absorption is. It’s coordination that helps local places absorb capital investments in the kinds of projects that can literally change what these places look like – things like child care centers, or housing, or downtown building renovations. Reliable systems are established and run by prepared partners to accept the funding when it appears and move it exactly where it’s needed, so the work can get done in ways that strengthen local economies.
  

• How Many Manufacturing Jobs Will Trump’s Tariffs Create? And at What Cost?    AEI Center for Technology, Science, Industry, and the State Project

  Secular decline in the share of manufacturing jobs in the labor force largely reflects the shift of consumer expenditures from goods to services. High tariffs cannot restore manufacturing jobs to the 27 percent share of the labor force experienced 60 years ago. Achieving Trump’s objective for eliminating the trade deficit in manufactures would require tariffs at least twice as high as those imposed through September 2025. The annual cost to American consumers of shifting each job from service employment to manufacturing employment through high tariffs exceeds $200,000.

•  What is a Stablecoin?      McKinsey & Company

  In the rapidly evolving world of digital assets, one innovation stands out for its potential to bring stability and reliability to the historically volatile blockchain-based currency market: the stablecoin. As the name suggests, a stablecoin is a type of digital currency designed to maintain a stable value. These digital currencies are pegged to a traditional fiat currency like the US dollar. Stablecoin use has increased significantly in recent years: In the past 18 months, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has more than doubled to $250 billion, from $120 billion, and industry forecasts expect it to reach up to $2 trillion by 2028. With major players like JPMorgan Chase experimenting with tokenized deposits and PayPal launching its own stablecoin, digital money is a major story in digital finance.  For individuals and organizations looking to capitalize on the benefits of blockchain-based transactions, what exactly is Stablecoin?

US Political & Social Trends

• The Growing Link Between Marriage, Fertility, And Partisanship   The Institute for Family Studies

  Conservative women born between 1975 and 1979—women who are finished having children—have a completed family size of 2.1, right at replacement. Moderate women in the same age group have 1.8 children, and liberal women just 1.5. Narrower gaps exist between conservatives born between 1985 and 1989, who have a completed fertility rate of 2.1, while moderates are at 1.9 and liberals 1.7. Conservative women born between 1995 and 1999 have, so far, only had 0.7 children, the same as moderates. Liberals in the same cohort average 0.4 so far. Differences between conservative and liberal women should not be overstated. Birthrates are lower for all groups when compared to the state of fertility before 1975. Marriage rates for all groups are lower, too. Yet the differences are large enough that the parties ultimately appeal to manifestly different constituencies.

•  It's Not Just You: Americans Are Still Not Hanging Out      Generation Tech

  The average American spent 38 minutes a day socializing in 2019 and 35 minutes in 2024. In 2024, for the first time, adults 50 and older spent (very slightly) more time socializing in person than teens and young adults. Young people’s social time is at an all-time low in the 21-year history of the survey. Fifteen- to 25-year-olds spend 26 fewer minutes a day socializing in person than they did in 2003. That’s three hours a week, 13 hours a month, and 158 hours a year less getting together with friends, having a face-to-face conversation, meeting for dinner, or chatting before seeing a movie together. No wonder so many more teens now describe themselves as lonely.

• Why do only humans weep? The evolutionary puzzle of crying     BigThink

  In an excerpt from Steven Pinker’s new book, When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows…, Pinker explains that crying is not just an expression of sadness but an evolved signal of surrender, helplessness, and a plea for comfort. However, tears can also mark moments of joy, compassion, and awe, reflecting the emotional opposites of the things that make us laugh.  The unique human capacity to weep may have evolved to strengthen social bonds and generate common knowledge regarding our inner states.
  

• If I Work Harder, Will You Love Me?    Arthur Brooks/The Atlantic

  Between teaching Harvard MBA students and speaking to a lot of business audiences, I’m often interacting with successful people who work extremely long hours. It’s common for me to hear about 13-hour workdays and seven-day workweeks, with few or no vacations. What I see among many of those I encounter is workaholism, a pathology characterized by continuing to work during discretionary time, thinking about work all the time, and pursuing job tasks well beyond what’s required to meet any need. Workaholics feel a compulsion to work even when they are already earning plenty of money and despite getting minimal enjoyment from doing so.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Government Lurches Toward a Shutdown as Congress Takes the Week Off, SEC Chair Atkins Begins to Outline Big Regulatory Overhaul,  and Fed Vice Chair Bowman to Speak on Regulatory Agenda

September 22 - 26, 2025

Congress is out of session this week for Rosh Hashanah and to conduct work from their home offices. Unfortunately, being out this week has substantially increased the likelihood of a government shutdown as of September 30th (we currently estimate the odds of a shutdown at 75 percent as of today).   

House and Senate Republicans and Democrat leaders really are not talking much about how to cobble together a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government running and, in talking to several Democratic staffers, it is clear Democratic leaders are almost at the point of welcoming a shutdown to make clear their opposition to the politically unpopular Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill as well as the upcoming cancellation of Obamacare tax credits. 

How long a shutdown could last is anyone's guess. The longest shutdown began on December 22nd, 2018, and lasted 35 days, concluding on January 25th, 2019. We will be updating clients on what we hear as we get close to the shutdown deadline.

Looking at last week, the big news was SEC Chair Paul Atkins' interview with Politico, where he made clear he was laying out the groundwork for a major regulatory rewrite.  It appears that it will include changes to quarterly reporting, something President Trump encouraged last week.  Atkins also championed moves to encourage more arbitration between investors and corporations and to move away from expensive and oftentimes frivolous class-action lawsuits.

Meanwhile, Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould announced a second reorganization of the agency, reversing a reorganization led by then-acting Comptroller Rodney Hood.  Industry groups cheered the move.

Also, last week, up on Capitol Hill, the House Financial Services Committee began outlining how it intends to reauthorize the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program as well as general flood insurance. The Senate Banking Committee is also expected to take on flood insurance this fall and is likely to make several changes to it. Interestingly, the National Flood Insurance Program has gone through 33 short-term reauthorizations and has not seen any changes over the past eight years.  There will likely be at least another short-term extension, as the program is set to expire on September 30th.

Looking at the week ahead, a large number of Federal Reserve Board governors and many of the regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents will be out giving speeches.  By our count, there are 14 speeches in total being given this week. But of particular note, Fed Chair Jay Powell is speaking on Tuesday about the economic outlook, while Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is speaking at the Kentucky Bankers Association. Bowman will also be giving another speech on Thursday in Washington on bank regulation, while her predecessor, Fed Governor Michael Barr, will be speaking on stress testing the same day, too.

And we would close out by noting the SEC has another very busy Thursday, almost as busy as last Thursday. SEC Chair Atkins will also be giving a speech on regulation.  And there is going to be a big SEC webinar on large bank compliance, then a Closed Meeting, all while a number of senior SEC enforcement officials will be speaking at the Securities Enforcement Forum Central 2025 conference in Chicago.

Below is a listing of all the rest of the major regulatory events in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       The US Senate is out of session this week for home state work.

House of Representatives

The House of Representatives is out of session this week for home district work.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, September 22, 10:00 a.m. – St. Louise Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives a speech on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Monday, September 22, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran Non-Monetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.

·       Tuesday, September 23, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention (virtual).

·       Tuesday, September 23, 9:00 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before a Macro Musings podcast live recording.

·       Tuesday, September 23, 12:35 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.

·       Wednesday, September 24, 3:10 p.m. CT – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter.

·       Thursday, September 25, 7:20 a.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan"

·       Thursday, September 25, 9:00 a.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board.

·       Thursday, September 25, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

·       Thursday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the at the Financial Markets Quality Conference 2025, Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, September 25, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation on bank stress testing at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, September 25, 2:30 p.m. – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum.

·       Friday, September 26, 9:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Friday, September 26, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Thursday, September 25, 8:30 a.m. – Several senior SEC enforcement officials will be speaking at the Securities Enforcement Forum Central 2025 conference in Chicago.

·       Thursday, September 25, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will host a compliance outreach webinar for large firms regarding the 2024 adoption of amendments to Regulation S-P.

·       Thursday, September 25, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

·       Thursday, September 25, 4:30 p.m. – SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will speak at the Georgetown University McDonough School of Business’ Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy holds its Financial Markets Quality Conference 2025 in Washington, D.C.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Wednesday, September 24, 6:00 p.m. Seoul – Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will provide keynote remarks at a Global Crypto Policy Symposium: Navigating Stablecoin Regulation for the Institutional Era.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

 Trade Associations

·       Thursday, September 25, 12:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a virtual discussion on "Fiscal Guardrails: Global Debt Levels and Looming Government Spending Pressures."

·       Thursday,  September 25, 5:30 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "Untangling a Complex Problem: Preserving Housing Wealth for Vulnerable Owners through Technology and Estate Planning."

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Wednesday, September 24, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a hybrid event entitled “Gaming Out the GSEs’ Exit from Conservatorship: Process, Policy, and Potential Pitfalls.”

·       Thursday, September 25 – The Georgetown University McDonough School of Business’ Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy holds its Financial Markets Quality Conference 2025 in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Global Week Ahead

Global Leaders Gather for the UN General Assembly, Canada, France, and the UK Recognize Palestinian Statehood, EU Defense Ministers Consider a “Drone Wall”, and Markets Brace for Global Flash PMIs and Lots of US Central Bank Speeches

September 21 - 28, 2025

New York will be the center of the geopolitical radar screen this coming week.  The United Nations General Assembly’s High-Level General Debate begins on Tuesday, the 80th anniversary meeting, and world leaders will descend on the Big Apple to deliver speeches.  But the truly big event at the UN this week will be the meeting on Palestinian statehood, co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia.   French President Emmanuel Macron will use the event to formally recognize a Palestinian State, following Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia in making the dramatic diplomatic policy move.  

The move by major Western nations calling for a two-state solution shows the growing divide between them and Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to oversee military action in the Gaza Strip and reportedly is considering annexing the West Bank – all as the US and other countries continue to gain the freedom of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Also happening on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly will be a meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN Assembly.  The main issue they will discuss is efforts to secure a cease-fire in Ukraine, something Russian President Vladimir Putin has been resisting despite President Trump’s increasing threats of more stringent sanctions on Russian oil sales. Markets will be watching closely for any sign of a thaw that could delay Trump’s move toward stricter sanctions.

Overall, there are innumerable other meetings and conferences taking place on the sidelines of the Assembly.  You can find the schedule of when leaders are speaking here, and for a listing of all the other meetings and conferences taking place, you can find them here.

While all this is going on, EU Defense Ministers will be meeting in Latvia to discuss the spike in Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO airspace. The Ministers will consider creating a layered defense system of drones, radar, jamming stations, and other precision weapons to prevent future Russian incursions. The meeting is another sign of the growing tensions between European NATO members and Moscow as Russian President Putin grows either more aggressive or more reckless - or both - in his provocations of NATO.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big event for markets will be the global flash PMI reports for any signs of growing inflation.  In the Americas, markets will be listening closely to Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday and watching for a number of key reports, including new home sales on Wednesday, existing home sales and durable goods orders on Thursday, and the August PCE print is out on Friday. 

However, we would also note that this is going to be a hectic week for Fed governors “speechifying” – 14 Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed presidents will be speaking in total.  And in Canada, Reserve Bank Governor Tiff Macklin will give a speech and hold a press conference this week, too.  And in Mexico, the Central Bank will meet on interest rates.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its August consumer expectation survey on Friday.  Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Wednesday, and consumer confidence surveys for Germany and France are out on Thursday.

Finally, in Asia, Japan releases September CPI figures on Friday, and China releases August inflation data on Wednesday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Belize Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

·       Today is Armenia's Independence Day.

·       Today is Malta Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Africa Business Initiative (GABI) will convene the 4th edition of Unstoppable Africa, on the sidelines of the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in Mid-Town Manhattan, New York. 

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum on whether to establish a new constitution replacing the one approved in 2020 and mark the first step towards civilian rule.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 22, 2025

Global

·       At the United Nations, the 2nd World Summit on Palestine Statehood, bringing together numerous heads of state and sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, will attempt to revive the long-stalled “two-State solution” to establish a Palestinian state and the “two-state solution.”  France is expected to join Canada, Great Britain, and other countries in recognizing a Palestinian state.

·       At the United Nations, the High-level Meeting to Commemorate the 80th Anniversary of the United Nations will take place. This one-hour meeting will mark the 80th anniversary of the establishment of the United Nations, with UN officials and Heads of State and Government reflecting on the achievements of the past eight decades and the path ahead for a more inclusive and responsive multilateral system. 

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency holds a meeting in Vienna, Austria.

·       Rosh Hashana – the Jewish New Year -  commemorations begin.

·       The Autum Equinox happens in the Northern Hemisphere (Summer is now officially over and its autumn).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House and Senate are out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louise Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives a speech on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran Non-Monetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates virtually in panel before the “Monetary Policy Frameworks: Recent Developments and Outlook An International Comparative View" event organized by the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and SUERF.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “The Fed's Role in the Economy and Impact on Everyday Life" before a "Fed Talk" event.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually on the economy before the Howard County (Maryland) Chamber of Commerce.

·       Canada PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Paraguay PPI (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party will begin a two-week leadership contest, with the vote to be held on October. 4. Though the LDP does not have a majority in the Diet, Japan's parliament, it is by far the largest party, so the new leader is most likely to become the next prime minister.

·       Malaysia will host the 57th ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting and related sessions this year in Kuala Lumpur as the bloc's chair, with the summit running through Friday alongside the RCEP Ministers' Meeting. Officials will also hold consultations with dialogue partners, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the European Union trade chief, to review market access, regional supply chains and the rules-based trading system.

·       Reforms to India's complex consumption taxes will kick in as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries to spur domestic consumption in a slowing economy. Under the reforms, most goods and services will be taxed in two tiers of 5% and 18%, with the government abolishing the 12% and 28% brackets. The reforms come just ahead of the crucial festive season between October and December, when Indians engage in the bulk of their yearly shopping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock delivers the semi-annual testimony to a parliamentary panel in Canberra.

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through September 23 in Brussels.  The EU Commission will present its proposals for the common agricultural policy (CAP) post-2027, and agriculture ministers will have the opportunity to hold a first policy debate on the future CAP.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations.  Later, she will deliver a speech at the Global Renewables Summit and then participate in at the high-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat at the London School of Economics.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at BIS-ECB-SUERF high-level online workshop on Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook – an international comparative view.

·       European Central Bank Board Member  José Luis Escrivá speaks at an event in Madrid.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mali Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN General Assembly begins in New York and runs through September 29th.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a high-level briefing on the situation of the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question.  Later, the Council is scheduled to hold a High-Level briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report for the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will address the UN General Assembly.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will host an event on Russia's abduction of children at the fringes of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

·       The Third Annual CAF / UNDP Conference on Governance for Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Critical Natural Resources for Sustainable Development will be held at the United Nations.

·       Ecuadorian unions will march in Quito over the government's elimination of a diesel subsidy. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention (virtual).

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before a Macro Musings podcast live recording.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Saskatoon, followed by a press conference.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Redbook (September/20)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/19)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Micron Technology, Costco, Autozone

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the Euro-Asia Economic Forum (under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Xi'an through September  25.

·       The Fifth Asia Finance Forum, hosted by the Asian Development Bank, begins in Manila, Philippines.

·       Jakarta and Brussels will sign the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Bali. The pact is expected to boost Indonesia's exports by over twofold, from a current trade value of around $30 billion. The deal comes after negotiations that spanned a decade, which concluded successfully in July.

·       The S-Tron Conference begins in Shanghai.  The two-day startup event allows start-up founders to pitch business plans they hope will become the next big thing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japanese financial markets are closed for the Autumn Equinox.

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat and panel discussion at the Financial Market Authority's 16th annual supervisory conference in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a discussion at the Inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Artificial Intelligence and international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/19)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/19)/Building Permits (August)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)

·       EARNINGS: KB Home, Cintas

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Payments System Board Annual

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the United Nations Climate Summit 2025.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at Bloomberg's Future of Finance conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2025 'AI in action: Shaping the future of banking and banking supervision' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene gives a speech at the Glasgow Business School on “Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy.”

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Spain PPI (August)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (September)/ Ifo Current Conditions (September)/ Ifo Expectations (September)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/ODI Conference on Global Finance begins in London, where researchers and practitioners will discuss frontier research on public finance, with a focus on low and middle-income countries.

·       BP launches an annual Energy Outlook, looking at the long-term trends and projections for global oil and gas markets to 2050.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will host Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Washington for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation on bank stress testing at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan.”

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Sales Q2/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/24)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Accenture, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Game Show will be held for four days through September 28 at the Makuhari Messe convention center east of Tokyo. First held in 1996, it is one of the world's leading game events.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

·       Taiwan Retail Sales (August)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (September)

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin

·       EU New Car Registrations (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Hungary Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       France Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Greece Total Credit (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3/ PPI (August)

Friday, September 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

·       Canada GDP (July)/ Wholesale Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       USA PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/26)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Panama Current Account Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) will be held at the United Nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The HKIB Annual Banking Conference is held in Hong Kong with Financial Secretary Paul Chan giving an opening keynote address.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/20)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q3/ Consumer Confidence Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/12)/ Deposit Growth (September/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia hosts a two-day NATO military committee conference beginning in Riga.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB-CEPR-Bocconi conference hosted by the University of Bocconi in Milan, Italy.

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Italy Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       ECB Consumer Inflation Expectation

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds national assembly elections.

·       The Seychelles holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Assessing the EU’s Defense Sector Build-Up, New Studies on the Economic Impact of Trump’s Tariffs, China’s “Anti-Involution” Campaign, and Russia’s Shrewd Focus on Africa 

September 19 - 21, 2025

Each week, we gather up the best research and reports we have read in the past week and pass them on to you.  Below is this week’s curated collection.  We hope you find them interesting and informative, and that you have a great weekend.

The Growth of the EU’s Defense Sector

• Progress and Shortfalls in Europe’s Defense: An Assessment    International Institute for Strategic Studies

  This IISS Strategic Dossier examines important capability areas that European allies need to address in order to reduce their vulnerabilities and overdependence on the US. The aim is to identify existing gaps and challenges but also note where progress has already been made towards a situation where adequate capabilities for the defense of Europe are provided by Europeans in a more autonomous way, while still working with partners and allies.

• Defense Expenditures of NATO Countries (2014 – 2025)        NATO

  NATO collects defense expenditure data from Allies and publishes it on a regular basis. Each Ally’s Ministry of Defence reports current and estimated future defense expenditure according to an agreed definition. The amounts represent payments by a national government that have been or will be made during the course of the fiscal year to meet the needs of its armed forces, those of Allies or of the Alliance. In the figures and tables that follow, NATO also uses economic and demographic information available from the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (DG ECFIN), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In view of differences between these sources and national GDP forecasts, and also the definition of NATO defense expenditure and national definitions, the figures shown in this report may considerably diverge from those that are referenced by media, published by national authorities or given in national budgets. Equipment expenditure includes expenditure on major equipment as well as on research and development devoted to major equipment. Personnel expenditure includes pensions paid to retirees. The cut-off date for information used in this report was 3 June 2025. Figures for 2024 and 2025 are estimates.

• The EU’s Road to Economic Security De-Risking, Strategic Investments and Critical Partnerships   Italian Institute for International Political Studies

  The European Union has redefined its strategic priorities through three phases: the rise of geoeconomics, the structuring of de-risking, and its current testing in a shifting global context. Geoeconomics exposed the link between economy, security, and power, driven by US and Chinese strategies to weaponize industrial assets and by renewed geopolitical rivalry. Europe’s dependence on critical raw materials, especially Chinese rare earths, accelerated the push for strategic autonomy. Since 2021, with the European Economic Security Strategy, the Chips Act, and the Critical Raw Materials Act, Brussels has pursued de-risking as diversification rather than decoupling, focusing on semiconductors, green technologies, and critical minerals. Yet US, Japanese, and South Korean industrial policies show de-risking is a broader challenge. The EU must now deliver concrete results, combining competitiveness and resilience with multilateral cooperation. How can Europe secure adequate resources to meet these goals? And how can it balance industrial autonomy with global partnerships?

China’s Competitiveness Challenge

• China Wants to Integrate AI Into 90 Percent of Its Economy by 2030. It Won’t Work.   Carnegie Emissary

  Recently, Beijing debuted its latest strategy for winning the AI race. China’s powerful State Council laid out an ambitious vision to rapidly diffuse AI into six key areas, ranging from accelerating scientific research and development to improving governance capacity. The plan sets striking, concrete targets that include deploying a range of applications across 90 percent of wide swaths of its economy in just five years. China’s latest plan is part of a broader strategic bet. The PRC thinks it can integrate AI throughout its society to turbocharge its economy and secure AI leadership. It’s a playbook the country has used before. During the mid-2010s, China transformed its digital economy by diffusing internet applications throughout what Beijing calls the “real economy.”  But this time could be very different. Chinese leadership is confident in its AI development, but—perhaps counterintuitively—investors are not. China’s venture capital ecosystem is dry at this critical moment for AI, and as a result, Beijing’s aspirations are likely to fall short of the whole-of-society economic transformation the party wants. U.S. policymakers should mostly ignore China’s aspirational rhetoric and focus on what it can achieve in practice.  

• Involution and Industry Self-Discipline: Echoes from the Past    Center for Strategic and International Studies

  No doubt the word of the year in China is “involution.” The term in Chinese really did not exist prior to 2020, but its use has exploded since, particularly in 2025. When the Chinese term first emerged in popular culture in China a few years ago, the initial application was to Chinese students and young people trapped in highly competitive schools and jobs that brought little personal fulfillment, with immense efforts and sacrifices that to many seemed ultimately meaningless, a feeling made more acute by the arrival of the pandemic. This led many to respond by giving up on their ambitions and “lying flat”, which has also been a source of much social debate.   

  In 2025, involution now refers specifically to the widespread phenomenon of continued massive expansion of production in sector after sector, despite any semblance of sufficient domestic demand to absorb these goods. Chinese officialdom has vociferously rebutted charges by foreign governments that China has been suffering from “overcapacity.  As part of this retort, it has been argued that industrial policy and subsidies are not the source of China’s industrial strength, but rather high quality and competitiveness. As a result, governments around the world are wrong to impose any restrictions on Chinese exports.  But while China is rebuffing international charges of overcapacity, it has opened the doors to a domestic debate about involution and how to tackle it. Hence, the emergence of a highly public conversation about “anti-involution policy, a catch-phrase which has also spread like wildfire.

 Updates on Global Trade Wars

• Markets shrug off trade conflicts    Bank for International Settlements

  In a new study, BIS found that global financial markets maintained a risk-on tone during the review period, shrugging off concerns over mounting tariff and policy uncertainty. Despite short-lived bouts of volatility triggered by incoming data and political developments, market sentiment remained upbeat, defying mounting challenges, including unease over the longer-run fiscal outlook in several key jurisdictions. Short-term bonds priced in greater policy easing, but long-term yields stayed high and yield curves steepened at the very long end on fiscal and inflation concerns.  Emerging market assets saw gains, benefiting from the risk-on environment and the weakening of the US dollar.

• The Trump Shock That Wasn’t (At Least Not Yet)   Brad Setser/Council on Foreign Relations

  President Trump’s tariffs have been a profound shock to the global trade rules.  They have generated enormous volatility in measured trade flows. But so far the volatility has essentially come from pharmaceuticals and gold (including gold bars, or imports of “metal forms”). The impact of the tariffs core trade flows—and hence the global economy—has been modest, at least so far. 

• Tariffs, Manufacturing Employment, and Supply Chains    Joseph Steinberg/NBER

  Abstract: I use a dynamic general-equilibrium model with supply-chain adjustment frictions to study the effects of tariffs on manufacturing employment. The model has four distinct manufacturing sectors: upstream goods with high trade elasticities (“oil”); upstream goods with low trade elasticities (“steel”); downstream goods with high trade elasticities (“toys”); and downstream goods with low trade elasticities (“cars”). I find that tariffs can increase overall manufacturing employment in the long run, but are likely to reduce it in the short run, and cause more reallocation of workers across these individual sectors than overall employment growth.

Russian Foreign Policy 

• Russia is Shrewdly Playing the Long Game in Africa    War on the Rocks

  What if Moscow’s most dangerous moves right now aren’t in Europe, but along the Gulf of Guinea? With its resources sunk deep into Ukraine, the Russian military has weighed carefully whether and when to engage elsewhere, standing aside amid recent conflicts in the South Caucasus and Middle East. An exception to this pattern of inaction is in West Africa. After the failed mutiny of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023, the Russian government established a new paramilitary group called Africa Corps, tethered closely to the military chain of command. The unit then progressively took over most of Wagner’s operations in Africa and expanded into Burkina Faso and Niger. It now seems to be eyeing a presence in Benin and Togo next. These activities suggest that Russia is seeking a West African foothold on which to build once an end to the war on Ukraine frees up additional conventional military forces. Russia may then try to further extend Africa Corps’ presence.

• The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure    IISS

  Russia is waging an unconventional war on Europe. Through its campaign of sabotage, vandalism, espionage and covert action, Russia’s aim has been to destabilize European governments, undermine public support for Ukraine by imposing social and economic costs on Europe, and weaken the collective ability of NATO and the European Union to respond to Russian aggression. This unconventional war began to escalate in 2022 in parallel to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Russia has so far failed to achieve its primary aim, European capitals have struggled to respond to Russian sabotage operations and have found it challenging to agree a unified response, coordinate action, develop effective deterrence measures and impose sufficient costs on the Kremlin. IISS has created the most comprehensive open-source database of suspected and confirmed Russian sabotage operations targeting Europe. The data reveals Russian sabotage has been aimed at Europe’s critical infrastructure, is decentralized and, despite European security and intelligence officials raising the alarm, is largely unaffected by NATO, EU and member state responses to date.