Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 9/22/25 Francis Kelly 9/22/25

Global Week Ahead

Global Leaders Gather for the UN General Assembly, Canada, France, and the UK Recognize Palestinian Statehood, EU Defense Ministers Consider a “Drone Wall”, and Markets Brace for Global Flash PMIs and Lots of US Central Bank Speeches

September 21 - 28, 2025

New York will be the center of the geopolitical radar screen this coming week. The United Nations General Assembly’s High-Level General Debate begins on Tuesday, the 80th anniversary meeting, and world leaders will descend on the Big Apple to deliver speeches. But the truly big event at the UN this week will be the meeting on Palestinian statehood, co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia. French President Emmanuel Macron will use the event to formally recognize a Palestinian State, following Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia in making the dramatic diplomatic policy move.

The move by major Western nations calling for a two-state solution shows the growing divide between them and Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to oversee military action in the Gaza Strip and reportedly is considering annexing the West Bank – all as the US and other countries continue to gain the freedom of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Also happening on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly will be a meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN Assembly. The main issue they will discuss is efforts to secure a cease-fire in Ukraine, something Russian President Vladimir Putin has been resisting despite President Trump’s increasing threats of more stringent sanctions on Russian oil sales. Markets will be watching closely for any sign of a thaw that could delay Trump’s move toward stricter sanctions.

Overall, there are innumerable other meetings and conferences taking place on the sidelines of the Assembly. You can find the schedule of when leaders are speaking here, and for a listing of all the other meetings and conferences taking place, you can find them here .

While all this is going on, EU Defense Ministers will be meeting in Latvia to discuss the spike in Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO airspace. The Ministers will consider creating a layered defense system of drones, radar, jamming stations, and other precision weapons to prevent future Russian incursions. The meeting is another sign of the growing tensions between European NATO members and Moscow as Russian President Putin grows either more aggressive or more reckless - or both - in his provocations of NATO.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big event for markets will be the global flash PMI reports for any signs of growing inflation. In the Americas, markets will be listening closely to Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday and watching for a number of key reports, including new home sales on Wednesday, existing home sales and durable goods orders on Thursday, and the August PCE print is out on Friday.

However, we would also note that this is going to be a hectic week for Fed governors “speechifying” – 14 Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed presidents will be speaking in total. And in Canada, Reserve Bank Governor Tiff Macklin will give a speech and hold a press conference this week, too. And in Mexico, the Central Bank will meet on interest rates.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its August consumer expectation survey on Friday. Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Wednesday, and consumer confidence surveys for Germany and France are out on Thursday.

Finally, in Asia, Japan releases September CPI figures on Friday, and China releases August inflation data on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

· Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Belize Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council, will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union. Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

· Today is Armenia's Independence Day.

· Today is Malta Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Global Africa Business Initiative (GABI) will convene the 4th edition of Unstoppable Africa, on the sidelines of the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in Mid-Town Manhattan, New York.

· Guinea holds a constitutional referendum on whether to establish a new constitution replacing the one approved in 2020 and mark the first step towards civilian rule.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 22, 2025

Global

· At the United Nations, the 2nd World Summit on Palestine Statehood, bringing together numerous heads of state and sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, will attempt to revive the long-stalled “two-State solution” to establish a Palestinian state and the “two-state solution.” France is expected to join Canada, Great Britain, and other countries in recognizing a Palestinian state.

· At the United Nations, the High-level Meeting to Commemorate the 80th Anniversary of the United Nations will take place. This one-hour meeting will mark the 80th anniversary of the establishment of the United Nations, with UN officials and Heads of State and Government reflecting on the achievements of the past eight decades and the path ahead for a more inclusive and responsive multilateral system.

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency holds a meeting in Vienna, Austria.

· Rosh Hashana – the Jewish New Year - commemorations begin.

· The Autum Equinox happens in the Northern Hemisphere (Summer is now officially over and its autumn).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US House and Senate are out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· St. Louise Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives a speech on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran Non-Monetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates virtually in panel before the “Monetary Policy Frameworks: Recent Developments and Outlook An International Comparative View" event organized by the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and SUERF.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “The Fed's Role in the Economy and Impact on Everyday Life" before a "Fed Talk" event.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually on the economy before the Howard County (Maryland) Chamber of Commerce.

· Canada PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index

· Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

· Paraguay PPI (August)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party will begin a two-week leadership contest, with the vote to be held on October. 4. Though the LDP does not have a majority in the Diet, Japan's parliament, it is by far the largest party, so the new leader is most likely to become the next prime minister.

· Malaysia will host the 57th ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting and related sessions this year in Kuala Lumpur as the bloc's chair, with the summit running through Friday alongside the RCEP Ministers' Meeting. Officials will also hold consultations with dialogue partners, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the European Union trade chief, to review market access, regional supply chains and the rules-based trading system.

· Reforms to India's complex consumption taxes will kick in as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries to spur domestic consumption in a slowing economy. Under the reforms, most goods and services will be taxed in two tiers of 5% and 18%, with the government abolishing the 12% and 28% brackets. The reforms come just ahead of the crucial festive season between October and December, when Indians engage in the bulk of their yearly shopping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock delivers the semi-annual testimony to a parliamentary panel in Canberra.

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through September 23 in Brussels. The EU Commission will present its proposals for the common agricultural policy (CAP) post-2027, and agriculture ministers will have the opportunity to hold a first policy debate on the future CAP.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations. Later, she will deliver a speech at the Global Renewables Summit and then participate in at the high-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat at the London School of Economics.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at BIS-ECB-SUERF high-level online workshop on Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook – an international comparative view.

· European Central Bank Board Member José Luis Escrivá speaks at an event in Madrid.

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

· Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

· Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

· Slovenia Unemployment Rate (July)

· Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

· Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Mali Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Global

· The UN General Assembly begins in New York and runs through September 29th.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a high-level briefing on the situation of the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question. Later, the Council is scheduled to hold a High-Level briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

· The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report for the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will address the UN General Assembly.

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will host an event on Russia's abduction of children at the fringes of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

· The Third Annual CAF / UNDP Conference on Governance for Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Critical Natural Resources for Sustainable Development will be held at the United Nations.

· Ecuadorian unions will march in Quito over the government's elimination of a diesel subsidy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention (virtual).

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before a Macro Musings podcast live recording.

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Saskatoon, followed by a press conference.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

· Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

· USA Current Account Q2/ Redbook (September/20)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/19)

· Argentina Retail Sales (July)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Micron Technology, Costco, Autozone

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China will host the Euro-Asia Economic Forum (under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Xi'an through September 25.

· The Fifth Asia Finance Forum, hosted by the Asian Development Bank, begins in Manila, Philippines.

· Jakarta and Brussels will sign the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Bali. The pact is expected to boost Indonesia's exports by over twofold, from a current trade value of around $30 billion. The deal comes after negotiations that spanned a decade, which concluded successfully in July.

· The S-Tron Conference begins in Shanghai. The two-day startup event allows start-up founders to pitch business plans they hope will become the next big thing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japanese financial markets are closed for the Autumn Equinox.

· South Korea PPI (August)

· Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

· India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

· Taiwan Export Orders (August)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat and panel discussion at the Financial Market Authority's 16th annual supervisory conference in Vienna, Austria.

· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a discussion at the Inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium in Geneva, Switzerland.

· Switzerland Current Account Q2

· France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

· Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

· Spain Balance of Trade (July)

· Great Britain S&P Global HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

· Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Artificial Intelligence and international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/19)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/19)/Building Permits (August)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

· Chile PPI (August)

· Colombia Business Confidence (August)

· Argentina Economic Activity (July)

· EARNINGS: KB Home, Cintas

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

· Japan S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Payments System Board Annual

· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (August)

· Philippines Budget Balance (August)

· Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the United Nations Climate Summit 2025.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at Bloomberg's Future of Finance conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2025 'AI in action: Shaping the future of banking and banking supervision' in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene gives a speech at the Glasgow Business School on “Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy.”

· European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

· Spain PPI (August)

· Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (September)/ Ifo Current Conditions (September)/ Ifo Expectations (September)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Global

· The World Bank/ODI Conference on Global Finance begins in London, where researchers and practitioners will discuss frontier research on public finance, with a focus on low and middle-income countries.

· BP launches an annual Energy Outlook, looking at the long-term trends and projections for global oil and gas markets to 2050.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump will host Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Washington for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation on bank stress testing at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan.”

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board.

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum.

· Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

· USA Durable Goods Orders (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Sales Q2/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/24)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)

· Mexico Interest Rate Decision

· EARNINGS: Accenture, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Tokyo Game Show will be held for four days through September 28 at the Makuhari Messe convention center east of Tokyo. First held in 1996, it is one of the world's leading game events.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

· Taiwan Retail Sales (August)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Car Production (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (September)

· The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin

· EU New Car Registrations (August)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

· Hungary Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· France Consumer Confidence (September)

· Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

· Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Greece Total Credit (August)

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3/ PPI (August)

Friday, September 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

· Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

· Canada GDP (July)/ Wholesale Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (July)

· USA PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/26)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

· Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Panama Current Account Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) will be held at the United Nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The HKIB Annual Banking Conference is held in Hong Kong with Financial Secretary Paul Chan giving an opening keynote address.

· South Korea Business Confidence (September)

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

· Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/20)

· Singapore Industrial Production (August)

· Thailand Industrial Production (August)

· Philippines Business Confidence Q3/ Consumer Confidence Q3

· India Bank Loan Growth (September/12)/ Deposit Growth (September/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia hosts a two-day NATO military committee conference beginning in Riga.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB-CEPR-Bocconi conference hosted by the University of Bocconi in Milan, Italy.

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Italy Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

· ECB Consumer Inflation Expectation

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Gabon holds national assembly elections.

· The Seychelles holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 28, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Moldova holds parliamentary elections.

· Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/19/25 Francis Kelly 9/19/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Makes 2nd State Visit to the UK, US-China Trade Talks Start Up Again, Qatar Holds Emergency Summit Following Israeli Attack, and Multiple Central Banks Decide Rates This Week

September 14 - 21, 2025

This week, the most significant geopolitical events with market implications will be in Europe. President Trump will travel to London this week for his second official state visit, which will involve a white tie dinner with King Charles. For UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is still reeling from having to fire his Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, this past week for his close ties to Jeffrey Epstein, it is a high-stakes meeting as he seeks a deal on British steel and aluminum products, which are currently subject to 25% US tariffs.

Just prior to the UK meetings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid to discuss trade and mutual security matters. Specifically, Bessent will discuss the US threat to impose tough new sanctions on any country purchasing Russian oil. Considering China is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, these meetings will be crucial for markets trying to gauge the future of oil prices. Bessent is also going to press China to buy more US agricultural products, especially soybeans. Chinese purchases of American soybeans have plummeted, putting US farmers in tough economic straits.

Also this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s plans for Gaza and the overall situation in the Middle East following Israel’s attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar. While he is in Israel, the Qatari’s are holding an emergency meeting of Arab leaders to discuss how best to respond to Israel’s bombing strike.

Closer to home, we will be watching as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with President Claudia Sheinbaum. The two leaders are expected to discuss not only mutual trade issues but also how to better respond to President Trump’s ongoing tariffs on both countries.

Here in Washington DC this week, we expect Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran to be confirmed Monday (or perhaps early Tuesday) for an open seat on the Federal Reserve Board which will give him the ability to participate in this week’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FMOC) meeting on interest rates – a sure vote for lowering interest rates by at least 25 basis points with Miran likely pushing for a 50-basis point cut.

This brings us to the global economic and financial radar screen for the coming week. It is a big week for central bank meetings on interest rates. The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Central Bank of Norway, Taiwan’s central bank, and several other central banks are all meeting this week on interest rates.

Looking at major economic releases this week, in the US, the key reports scheduled for Wednesday include August retail sales data, industrial production, and housing starts.

In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be speaking several times. Germany releases the ZEW survey on Tuesday and PPI data on Friday, while in the UK, August inflation data, labor market data, retail sales, and consumer confidence are reported out this week.

And in Asia, China’s August economic data is out on Monday, including industrial output and August retail sales. Japan releases CPI data on Friday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global

· Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

· Today is Pope Leo XIV’s 70th birthday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Rubio will then go on to London to join President Trump for meetings with UK officials.

· US and Chinese officials began a new series of talks in Madrid, Spain on trade and the US’ threat of sanctions on China for buying Russian oil. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will also discuss boosting US agricultural sales to China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia region holds local elections. The far-right AfD Party is expected to make significant gains.

· Russia holds regional elections for 21 gubernatorial elections and 11 regional parliamentary elections.

· Russia and Belarus will conduct the strategic military exercise Zapad-2025 through September 16.

· The International Motor Show Germany (IAA) 2025 begins in Munich, Germany.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Qatar will host an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, Qatar, though September 15 in response to Israel's Sept. 9 attack on Hamas leadership in Doha. .

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa dispatched trade officials to Washington, D.C., for talks with the Trump administration on tariffs.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola M3 Money Supply (August)

Monday, September 15, 2025

Global

· The OECD hosts its Global Forum on Productivity Conference in Paris, France.

· The BRICS Traditional Values Forum begins in Brasilia, Brazil and runs through September 17

· The BRICS 1st National Public Health Institute Conference begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through September 17.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· The 69th IAEA General Conference will be held in Vienna, Austria through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Argentina’s President Javier Milei's official visit to Paraguay.

· Canada’s Parliament returns to work following its summer break.

· Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran is expected to be confirmed to become a Federal Reserve Board Governor.

· The US Navy and Marine Corps will host UNITAS 2025, a military exercise off the coast of Florida and along the east coast of the US. 26 nations will participate including Argentina, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Jamaica, Japan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Singapore, Spain, and the United States.

· Canada Post mail carriers are expected to escalate strike activity by stopping flyers and neighborhood mail deliveries.

· The Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS) kicks off their annual conference in Maui, Hawaii.

· The Beyond Earth Institute hosts a webinar to discuss “Navigating the New Space Policy Landscape: What the Latest Executive Order Means for Your Business.”

· Today is Costa Rica's Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Today is Guatemala's Independence Day, a national holiday

· Today is Honduras’ Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Wholesale Sales (July)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index/ NOPA Crush Report

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The United States, South Korea and Japan will hold the trilateral Freedom Edge military exercises off South Korea’s southern island of Jeju through September 19.

· Today is Respect for the Aged Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ FDI (YTD) (August)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2

· India WPI Food Index (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers through September 16 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

· A delegation of eight MEPs will speak to travel to Washington, DC to meet with members of Congress lawmakers and law enforcement officials through September 18.

· NovaSpace kicks off their annual World Space Business Week in Paris, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a ‘Conversations pour demain’ on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Institut Montaigne in Paris, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the EIB Chief economists meeting in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

· Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Italy Balance of Trade (July)

· Turkey Auto Production & Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Syrian electoral bodies select members of new transitional parliament.

· A Turkish court is expected to rule on a case that could remove the main opposition party leader, Ozgur Oze, from office due to procedural irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump arrives in London for meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well as for a dinner with King Charles. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join Trump. The UK is hoping to break the deadlock over long-delayed quotas to lower tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S.

· The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) will sign a free trade agreement with the EU on Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· Mexico will celebrate its Independence Day with a military parade planned in Mexico City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) begin two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates.

· Brazil Unemployment Rate (July)

· Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)

· USA Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/13)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/12)/ International Monetary Market (IMM)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Papau New Guinea, a national holiday.

· Malaysia will celebrate Malaysia Day, marking its independence.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)

· Reserve Bank of Australia RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter leads a fireside chat at the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney.

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with his Austrian, Slovenian, and Polish counterparts on the capitals of each country.

· The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. The Council will start preparations for the October 23-24 2025 European Council by discussing an annotated draft agenda. In public session, the Commission will present a letter of intent on legislative programming and ministers will hold an exchange of views. As part of the Council’s annual rule of law dialogue, ministers will hold in public session a horizontal discussion on general developments related to the rule of law situation in the EU. Ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries, namely Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Ministers from the four candidate countries will take part in the discussion.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will host a conference entitled “One Year After the Draghi Report” in Brussels. She along with Mario Draghi will deliver the opening keynote speeches.

· The 6th Accession Conference with Albania will take place in Brussels. The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 4 ‘Green agenda and sustainable connectivity’, including Chapters 14 (transport policy), 15 (energy), 21 (trans-European networks), and 27 (environment and climate change).

· Ukraine holds Defence Tech Valley 2025 in Lviv, Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (August)

· Italy Inflation Rate (August)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (July)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

· Germany Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Malawi holds general elections for president and parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).

· The World Trade Organization holds its annual Public Forum through September 18.

· The International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants meets in Antibes, France through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The congressionally mandated deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to non-Chinese buyers arrives again (unless President Trump gives it another extension, which he is expected to do).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces interest rate decision followed a by Press Conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/12)/ Building Permits (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/12)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/

· Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)

· Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Leading Indicator (August)

· The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China hosts the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, with military personnel and scholars expected to deliberate on regional security issues and cooperation. The three-day event is set to draw delegates from more than 100 countries and comes on the heels of a recent military parade in Beijing.

· Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his annual policy address, in which he will talk about plans to steer the city's economy. Analysts are watching for a potential stamp duty cut on residential property purchases, while another topic may be efforts to attract more visitors from mainland China to help struggling local retailers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones hosts a fireside chat at the Intersekt 2025 Conference in Melbourne.

· Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

· India M3 Money Supply (September/05)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission is expected to unveil its proposal for the 19th round of Sanctions on Russia.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to speak about Ukraine offensive to foreign envoys at round table in Moscow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference, jointly with Stanford's Hoover Institution, on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board member Piero Cipollone participates in the Associazione Bancaria Italiana's Executive Committee meeting (virtual). Later in the day, he gives the keynote speech at the De Nederlandsche Bank's Resilience Conference in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the German economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

· The Eurofi Financial Forum 2025 will take place in Copenhagen through September 19.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

· Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate (September)/ Lending Facility Rate (September)/ CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Pan- African Global Trade & Investment Conference begins in Newark, New Jersey and runs through September 20.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

· The International Olympic Committee Executive Board begins a two-day meeting in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Clauda Sheinbaum. Trade will be the dominant issue discussed and how to deal with US tariffs.

· Today is Chile Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Business Roundtable is expected to release its quarterly CEO economic outlook for the U.S.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/17)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

· Earnings: FedEx, Darden Restaurants, M&C Saatchi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Machinery Orders (July)

· Australia Employment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels will hold a policy debate on a proposal to amend the European climate law to establish a binding intermediate climate target for 2040. The proposal introduces a target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. It also outlines key elements and conditions that the European Commission must reflect in its legislative proposals for the post-2030 policy framework to enable member states to achieve the 2040 target.

· All major French unions – including air traffic controllers – will join in nationwide strikes and demonstrations against austerity measures expected in the 2026 budget. in France are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision is announced and meeting minutes released.

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives a video message at the opening plenary of 1st edition of Global Leadership by Women Summit in Marseille, France.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel 'Noisy Experts? Discretion in Regulation' at 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a livestreamed MNI Connect discussion entitled 'Euro Area Growth and Inflation Outlook' in London, United Kingdom.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a policy panel 'The Next Financial Crisis?' at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel joins the panel on Europe and Germany in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Liz Oakes, an external member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England, gives a keynote speech at the Cross Market Operational Resilience Group 2025 conference.

§ Vicky White, director, prudential policy, at the Bank of England, gives a speech at the Bank of America annual CEO conference.

· Euro area Current Account (July)/ Construction Output (July)

· Italy Current Account (July)

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

· Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, September 19, 2025

Global

· The United Nations Human Rights Council discusses Nicaragua.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks at an AI event in San Francisco, California.

· Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

· Canada Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales (August)

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/19)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan policy meeting on interest rates/Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/13

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Copenhagen, Denmark. The finance ministers will discuss the Eurogroup work program until June 2026. They will also discuss recent economic developments including an exchange of views with the Chair of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through September 20 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate on a panel discussion at EUROFI Financial Forum in Copenhagen, Denmark. Later in the day, Board Member Anneli Tuominen will also participate on a panel discussion.

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

· Germany PPI (August)

· France Business Confidence (September)/ Business Climate Indicator (September)

· Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The UK Liberal Democrat party conference begins in the south coast seaside town of Bournemouth, ending on September 23.

· The 190th Oktoberfest beer festival formally begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Guinea holds a constitutional referendum to replace the constitution that was approved in 2020.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

· Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 9/12/25 Francis Kelly 9/12/25

US. Regulatory Week Ahead

Miran Likely to be Confirmed for Fed Seat on Monday, CFTC Nominee Points Finger at Who is Holding Up His Confirmation, SEC Has A Busy Thursday, and What Did FSOC Do Last Week?

September 15 - 19, 2025

A lot is going on this coming week in the regulatory space in Washington. The SEC is holding a roundtable, an investor advisory committee meeting, and a closed meeting on Thursday alone – and that comes the day after holding an Open Meeting to consider three new rule changes.

But first, we would note that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said this week he intends to hold a confirmation vote on Monday for Stephan Miran, enabling him to be seated for the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Beyond wanting lower interest rates, Miran is seen as a strong supporter of Fed Vice Chair Michele Bowman’s deregulatory agenda.

While Miran’s confirmation seems set, another of President Trump’s regulatory nominees appears to be flailing – that being Brian Quintenz to be the next Chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Senate Agriculture Committee was set to hold a confirmation vote before the August recess, but the White House mysteriously asked the Committee to hold up, and no new vote has been scheduled. Quintenz, meanwhile, has gone on the offensive, blaming the Winklevoss twins for his confirmation being held up. Specifically, Quintenz said the brothers had reached out to President Trump to urge him to pull Quintenz’s nomination. No one has confirmed this actually happened, but it is pretty clear now that Quintenz’s nomination is in real trouble, and rumors are flying around Washington that the White House is now quietly making calls looking for a new CFTC Chair nominee.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) last week. There were two things of note about the meeting: First, sitting in the meeting was Federal Housing Finance Authority Director William Pulte – the first sighting of Pulte in the same room with Bessent since it was reported that Bessent and he recently came close to a fist-fight at a private dinner. Bessent, having learned that Pulte had been bad-mouthing him to President Trump, threatened to punch him in the face, dared him to “step outside,” and tried to get him thrown out of the dinner. No fists were thrown at the FSOC meeting.

Instead, FSOC discussed and agreed upon priorities for the coming year, including their “intention to review its guidance related to nonbank financial company determinations under section 113 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and the Council’s analytic framework for financial stability risks. “ They also voted to dissolve two Biden-era committees that focused on climate change as a risk to the US financial system.

Finally, the Senate Banking Committee held an interesting hearing on deposit insurance to push legislation to expand federal government deposit guarantees. Both Committee Chair Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and Ranking Minority Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have reportedly been discussing how to expand the deposit insurance program and seem determined to make it happen.

Below are all the other major events we are watching this coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, September 16, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will mark-up eleven separate pieces of legislation (see list HERE).

· Tuesday, September 16, 10:00 a.m. – The House Small Business Committee holds a hearing on "Pathway to Capital: The Role of SBA Lending in Supporting Main Street America."

· Tuesday and Wednesday, September 16 – 17 – The Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute holds its leadership conference. Among the remarks being given are:

- 10:30 a.m. Representative Delia Ramirez, (D-Ill.) delivers remarks on "Affordable Housing: Public-Private Solutions for Latino Families" (Oceanic A/B)

- 10:30 a.m.: Pablo Jose Hernandez Rivera, (D-Puerto Rico), participates in a discussion on "Unlocking Growth: Stablecoins as a Catalyst for Latino Small Business Success" (Ballroom B)

· Wednesday, September 17, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing & Insurance will hold a hearing on the Reauthorization of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002.

· Wednesday, September 17, 2:00 p.m. – the House Financial Services Committee’s Task Force on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, & the Economy will hold a hearing entitled “Less Mandats. More Independence.”

· Thursday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigations will hold a hearing entitled “Fraud in Focus: Exposing Financial Threats to American Families.”

· Thursday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, & Artificial Intelligence will hold a hearing entitled “Unlocking the Next Generation of AI in the U.S. Financial System for Consumers, Businesses, and Competitiveness.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday & Wednesday, September 16 – 17 – The Federal Open Market Committee meets on interest rates.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Friday - Friday, September 12 – 18 – Secretary of the Treasury Scott K.H. Bessent will travel to the United Kingdom and Spain. While in Madrid, Secretary Bessent will meet with Spanish government counterparts to discuss the relationship between Spain and the United States. He will also meet with senior representatives from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including Vice Premier He Lifeng, to discuss key national security, economic, and trade issues of mutual interest, including TikTok and cooperating on money laundering networks that threaten both the United States and China. Following his visit to Spain, the Secretary will visit the United Kingdom and engage with British government and private sector counterparts in London before joining President Donald J. Trump’s official State Visit with His Majesty King Charles III at Windsor Castle.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, September 17, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting to consider three items:

1. Amending Form PF; Reporting Requirements for All Filers and Large Hedge Fund Advisers; Further Extension of Compliance Date;

2. Acceleration of Effectiveness of Registration Statements of Issuers with Certain Mandatory Arbitration Provisions, and;

3. Amend its Rules of Practice relating to procedures governing Commission review of staff actions made pursuant to delegated authority in connection with the determination of the effectiveness of a registration statement or the qualification of a Regulation A offering.

· Thursday, September 18, 9:15 a.m. – the SEC will hold a Roundtable on Trade-Through Prohibitions.

· Thursday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a meeting of the Investor Advisory Committee. They will discuss reconsideration of the eligibility criteria and regulatory treatment of foreign private issuers. The committee will also discuss a potential recommendation regarding retail investor access to private market assets.

· Thursday, September 18, 12:30 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday and Tuesday, September 15 & 16 – On Monday, CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will speak at a fireside chat on “Instability as a Catalyst - Fintech’s Role in a Global Interconnected Economy” and participate in a panel discussion titled “Are Digital Assets Fundamentally Transforming the Ecosystem of Financial Markets?” On Tuesday, she will speak at a fireside chat on “Instability as a Catalyst - Fintech’s Role in a Global Interconnected Economy” and participate in a panel discussion titled “Are Digital Assets Fundamentally Transforming the Ecosystem of Financial Markets?” at Money 20/20 Middle East.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

· Tuesday, September 17, Noon – FHFA Director William Pulte will speak at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA board will hold a meeting to receive a briefing on the Share Insurance Fund.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Tuesday, September 17, 9:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, September 11, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet to receive a report on Quarterly Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System Conditions and Performance.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Sunday – Tuesday, September 15 – 17 – The American Bankers Association holds its Bank Marketing Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana.

· Monday, September 16, 2:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold its Women’s Leadership Forum in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Thursday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a discussion on the release of the Progressive Policy Institute's annual report "Investment Heroes 2025: The Shape of the AI-Enabled Economy."

· Thursday, September 18, 2:30 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a hybrid event entitled “The Importance of Credible Government Economic Data to Business”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added t

Francis Kelly 9/12/25 Francis Kelly 9/12/25

The Global Week Ahead

France’s Government Faces a Tough No Confidence Vote, Japan’s Prime Minister Resigns, Brazil’s Former President Faces Prison, and the ECB Meets on Interest Rates

September 7 - 14, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed geopolitical week ahead for markets to keep close tabs on as there are a number of events with significant market implications.

First, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a no confidence vote on Monday after pushing for an austerity measures to deal with France’s current fiscal deficit which is approaching 5.4%. and the overall highest deficit of any member of the Eurozone. As things stand now, Bayrou looks like he is going to be forced from office and French President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new prime minister who can mollify the various parliamentary factions and avoid an early legislative election. That is not going to be easy and, ultimately, it looks as if the only winner out of all this is the far-right National Rally Party.

Overnight in Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced he was stepping down after brutal legislative elections in July for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to losing its parliamentary majority. Ishiba’s poll numbers were never very strong, but only worsened with President Trump’s tough tariffs on Japan, which Ishiba described as a “national crisis.” Ishiba has called for the LDP to hold an emergency leadership vote to choose his successor. No date has been set yet.

Also, this week, there will be a lot of market-impacting political action in Brazil. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) is convening on Monday a virtual meeting of the BRICS+ to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and how the BRICS members might form a multilateral response. Not all of the BRICS leaders will be attending - including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others – who are instead sending aids to cover the meeting (all of which suggests Lula’s efforts are likely not to come to much in terms of an organized response).

But later in the week, the Brazilian Supreme Court will be considering whether former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and seven former aides and allies are guilty of attempting a coup in 2022 after Bolsonaro lost to Lula in elections. Heated protests have been held around the country in support of Bolsonaro, showing how politically split the electorate is at the moment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screens, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meetings. Market consensus believes the ECB will hold rates at 2% and is looking for more economic assurances before moving to lower rates going forward.

Also, in Europe this week, the UK releases GDP figures on Friday, Germany releases trade figures and industrial production on Monday, and France releases industrial production figures on Tuesday.

In the Americas this week, markets are looking for the August PPI report on Wednesday and the August CPI report on Thursday, probably the two most important reports out before the Federal Reserve decides on rates on September 17th. Adding to this will be the University of Michigan consumer survey for September on Friday. Also, this week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will unveil the 2026 budget, which will be

Turning to Asia, Japan will release its GDP on Monday and PPI on Thursday. China will be releasing trade data on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

· OPEC+ meets to discuss oil output targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· (To Be Confirmed) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Argentina through September 10th.

· In Brazil on Brazil's Independence Day, demonstrations will take place both in support of and in opposition to former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 8, 2025

Global

· Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host a virtual meeting of BRICS leaders to discuss U.S. trade policies and rally support for multilateralism.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria. Iran’s nuclear program will be the leading issue discussed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexican President Schoenbaum presents her administration’s draft 2026 budget; budget expected to include plans to increase tariffs on Chinese automotive, textile, and plastics imports.

· The First Nuclear Energy Conference and Expo sponsored by American Nuclear Society and the Nuclear Energy Institute begins in Atlanta, Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

· Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July)

· USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Used Car Prices (August)

· Argentina Industrial Production (July)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee is held in Beijing through September 12th. They are expected to approve a numb er of draft laws, including a draft atomic energy law, a draft law on public health emergency response, a draft law on national parks, a draft law on the safety management of hazardous chemicals, and other pressing issues.

· The Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting will kick off in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, bringing together leaders of the body's 18 members. During the five-day gathering, they will discuss challenges facing the region, such as climate change, transnational crime and rising geopolitical tensions between China and West. External partners including the U.S., China, Japan and Taiwan are not invited to the meeting this year.

· The annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, organized by S&P Global, will kick off in Singapore. Hundreds of petroleum, gas, petrochemical, trading, technology and financial executives, as well as senior government officials from across the globe, are set to convene in the city-state, where issues such as the financing of future energy solutions and the impact of technological innovations and disruptions on the energy sector will be discussed.

· The 14th Seoul Defense Dialogue (SDD) begins in Seoul.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues his state visit to Cambodia, which runs through Tuesday, as the two Southeast Asian nations look to boost relations. On the agenda are mutual concerns over transnational crime and efforts to bolster cooperation on agriculture, higher education and tourism, as well as to strengthen market access for bilateral and intra-ASEAN trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Chinese investment firm CITIC opens a four-day forum in Hong Kong, bringing in a lineup of top global executives to discuss major issues affecting portfolios. Sessions will cover a range of topics, from cryptocurrencies and China tech to macroeconomic trends.

· Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August)

· Australia Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Motorbike Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Norway holds parliamentary elections.

· French government faces confidence vote in National Assembly.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)

· Hungary Budget Balance (August)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Jordan Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Second Africa Climate Summit takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (August)

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Global

· The 80th session of the U.N. General Assembly will open.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The future of peace operations - Key issues, opportunities and challenges in the context of the review of the future of all UN peace operations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Apple holds its annual media day where it is expected to launch the new iPhone 16.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/05)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (August)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

· Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· EARNINGS: Oracle, Synopsys, GameStop

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· North Korea celebrates Republic Day, marking the day in 1948 when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was proclaimed and Kim Il Sung was declared its premier.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August)

· Philippines Industrial Production (July)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (August)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Indonesia Car Sales (August)

· China Standing Committee National People's Congress

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will meet in London.

· The Defense & Security Exports International (DSEI) Fair begins in London and runs through September 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August)

· Ireland Construction PMI (August)

· Romania Balance of Trade (July)

· Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech

· Hungary Inflation Rate (August)

· France Industrial Production (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People will convene its 425th meeting in ECOSOC at UNHQ in New York. At this meeting, the Committee will receive briefings by the Permanent Observer Mission of the State of Palestine and Palestinian civil society representatives on the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/05)/ PPI (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/05)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August)

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Brazil Inflation Rate (August)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (August)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (August)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (July)

· EARNINGS: Chewy, Daktronics, Vince

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Semicon Taiwan 2025 opens in Taipei. The chip industry's flagship event will welcome over 1,200 companies and is expected to draw more than 100,000 visitors.

· The 2025 Financial Review Asia Summit takes place in Sydney, Australia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (August)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)

· China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July)

· Kazakhstan PPI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the 2025 State of the Union address in Brussels. Later in the day, she receives European Tech and Industry CEOs for a working dinner.

· Widespread protests are expected across France over the current budget proposal being considered by parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Governing Council of the European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings in Frankfurt.

· European Central Bank Board Member Clauda Buch gives a keynote speech at the BIS Innovation Summit 2025.

· Slovakia Industrial Production (July)

· Spain Industrial Production (July)

· Turkey Industrial Production (July)

· Italy Industrial Production (July)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (July)

· Greece Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Ireland Industrial Production (July)

· Euro Area ECB Buch Speech

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Belarus Inflation Rate (August)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (August)

· Russia Inflation Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (August)

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference begins in Bangui, Central African Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Egypt Inflation Rate (August)

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1591 Committee (Sudan and whether to renew sanctions), in the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

· The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil report.

· The OECD annual report on fiscal reforms is published in Paris.

· The OPEC Monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to convict and jail former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup to stay in power in 2022.

· Nadine Menendez, wife of former U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, is due to be sentenced in a Manhattan district court after being convicted of helping her husband in a scheme to bribe Egyptian officials.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (September)

· Mexico Industrial Production (July)

· USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/06)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/10)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July)

· EARNINGS: Adobe, Kroger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/06)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/06)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (July)

· China Vehicle Sales (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli President Isaac Herzog travels to London for meetings with UK ministers to discuss the situation in the West Bank and Gaza.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Copenhagen from September 12.

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s wife, Begona Gomez, along with one of her aides, will testify in court as part of an influence-peddling investigation.

· Russia, Belarus hold joint military drills called 'Zapad-2025' through September 16.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Monetary Policy meeting and press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion entitled "Lead, Innovate, Achieve: Championing Sustainability and Social Inclusion for 25 Years" organized by Business in the Community Ireland (BITCI) in Dublin, Ireland.

· Romania Inflation Rate (August)

· Slovakia Construction Output (July)

· Turkey Retail Sales (July)/ Auto Production & Sales (August)

· ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference

· Ireland Inflation Rate (August)

· Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05)

· Ukraine Interest Rate Decision

· Germany Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Ministerial Meeting takes place in Sochi, Russia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)  

Friday, September 12, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· New York Fashion Week (Spring-Summer) begins. Derek Zoolander will not be there this year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Canada Building Permits (July)/ Capacity Utilization Q2

· USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/12)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (August)

· Australia RBA Jones Speech

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2

· Malaysia Retail Sales (July)

· Japan Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· India Inflation Rate (August)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/29)/ Deposit Growth (August/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05)

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2

· China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August)

· Germany Inflation Rate (August)

· Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July)

· France Inflation Rate (August)

· Spain Inflation Rate (August)

· Turkey Current Account (July)

· Romania Current Account (July)

· Russia Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global

· Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

· Today is Pope Leo VIV’s 70th birthday.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Angola M3 Money Supply (August)

Francis Kelly 9/7/25 Francis Kelly 9/7/25

U.S. Regulatory Week Ahead

The Senate Finalizes Its Crypto Market Structure Bill, The SEC and CFTC Announce A Roundtable on “Regulatory Harmonization,” and Fed Governor-Nominee Miran's Surprise Announcement

September 8 - 12, 2025

Washington got back to work last week, and from what we are seeing and hearing, it is going to be a very busy fall in the Nation’s Capital.

The move toward formalizing market structure legislation for crypto took another big step this past week. Senate Republicans finalized their draft crypto market structure bill, which appears to have a number of differences from the House version passed with a substantial bipartisan vote in July. While the Senate version explicitly divides duties between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the Senate draft gives new authorities to the CFTC.

Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) is hoping to get the bill passed through committee this fall and, hopefully, reconciled with the House version by Christmas.

Also, this past week, the SEC and CFTC announced they are going to hold a roundtable on “regulatory harmonization.” Seeing the two regulators playing well together is always a good thing but the announcement also set off a new buzz of speculation in Washington that perhaps this is a prelude to a possible merger between the two agencies, all part of a larger regulatory revamp expected by the Trump Administration in the coming months.

We may get some hints on that regulatory revamp on Wednesday when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent convenes a Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meeting. The announced agenda is pretty long, but regulatory reform is a key theme throughout it.

Finally, we would note that while the ongoing battle between President Trump and Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook over whether he can fire her or not is now firmly bogged down in federal court, Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran had is confirmation hearing to serve out the term of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler (which ends in January). But Miran surprised senators and just about everyone else by announcing he intends to hold onto his job as CEA Chair while serving at the Federal Reserve – a move which has further stirred up the battle over the independence of the Federal Reserve.

We expect the Senate Banking Committee will likely vote out Miran’s nomination this coming week or the following week (at the latest), and he will get a full Senate confirmation vote by the end of September, which means he will be serving as Fed Governor for four months before the term expires.

This coming week, the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on the state of deposit insurance and what needs to be reformed, while the House Financial Services Committee holds three hearings, the most noteworthy being an oversight hearing of FinCEN, and where efforts to curtail money laundering are going.

Below are all the major events we are watching this coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Wednesday, September 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Evaluating Perspectives on Deposit Insurance Reform.”

· Wednesday, September 10, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nominations of Jonathan Greenstein to be a deputy Treasury undersecretary; and Donald Korb to be chief counsel for the Internal Revenue Service and an assistant general counsel in the Treasury Department.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, September 9, 10:00 a.m. the House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions will hold a hearing entitled “Evaluating the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network” with FinCEN Director Andrea Gacki testifying.

· Tuesday, September 9, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Promoting the Health of the Banking Sector: Reforming Resolution and Broadening Funding Access for Long-Term Resilience”. They will also consider eight pieces of legislation for mark-up.

· Wednesday, September 10, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled “Proxy Power and Proposal Abuse: Reforming Rule 14a-8 to Protect Shareholder Value.” They will also consider a number of bills associated with this topic.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Wednesday, September 10, 4:15 p.m. – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will convene a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council at the Treasury Department. According to a Treasury press release, the preliminary agenda will include “The preliminary agenda for the executive session includes an update on the Council’s focus and priorities; a briefing on a recent interagency financial market infrastructure cybersecurity tabletop exercise; the Council’s 2025 annual report; and the Council’s fiscal year 2026 budget.* The preliminary agenda for the open session includes an update on banking supervision and regulatory reforms; votes to rescind the charters of two Council committees focused on climate-related financial risk; and a vote on the Council’s fiscal year 2026 budget.” You can watch the meeting via this link (HERE).

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Wednesday, September 10, 8:50 a.m. –SEC Commissioner Hester Pierce will discuss digital assets at the CoinDesk Policy and Regulation Conference hosted by Morgan Lewis in Washington, D.C.

· Thursday, September 11, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, September 8, 1:40 p.m. UK time – Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will speak at the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Blockchain Technologies International Roundtable on “Best Practices in Digital Assets Policy & Regulation.”

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· Wednesday, September 10, 9:15 a.m. – Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould will discuss digital assets at the CoinDesk Policy and Regulation Conference hosted by Morgan Lewis in Washington, D.C.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, September 11, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet to receive a report on Quarterly Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System Conditions and Performance.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Monday – Wednesday, September 8 – 10 – The Investment Company Institute holds its ETF Conference in Nashville, Tennessee.

· Tuesday, September 9, 9:00 a.m. – The Institute for International Finance holds an online event entitled Improving Supervisory Effectiveness - Assessing Concerning Trends in Bank Supervision.

· Tuesday, September 9 – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2025 Financial Crimes Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, September 9, 1:30 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 1:30 p.m., on "State-Level Remedies for the Housing Crisis."

· Thursday, September 11, 9:30 a.m. – The Cato Institute holds an online event entitled “Right-Sizing Financial Regulation.” House Financial Services Committee Chair, Representative French Hill (R-Ark), is scheduled to speak at 1:45 p.m.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 9/5/25 Francis Kelly 9/5/25

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts the SCO Summit and Celebrates the 80th Anniversary of the End of World War II with World Leaders, Trump’s Tariff Deals in Doubt, and Markets Focus on the Fed’s Beige Book and US Jobs Report

Summer is officially over and world capitals in the Northern Hemisphere are roaring back to work this week. But the major geopolitical events of the week will be in China.

President Xi Jinping is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit being held in Tianjin, China. This will be a particularly important SCO gathering as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other leading Asian leaders will be in attendance and holding sideline meetings with Xi. Of note, Prime Minister Modi’s sideline meeting with Xi shows continuing warming between the two nations – which has been historically frosty – as both struggle to deal with President Trump’s tough tariff regime.

After the SCO, Xi will hold an extravaganza 80th anniversary celebration in Beijing marking the end of World War II for China. Putin, Modi, and at least 28 other national leaders will be in attendance including North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. The significance of his attendance is it suggests new warming in the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang which has been strained in recent years.

What both events clearly show is a growing alignment between nations that are outright hostile to the United States and the West with those nations hardest hit by the Trump tariffs, giving the combined nations a reason to work together. Seeing the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, India, Iran, Cuba, and other nations sitting together watching an enormous Chinese military parade will drive that point home. What comes out of these meetings will likely be quite impactful on global markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Here in the US, two issues will be of major focus to markets this week. First, the decision by a Federal Appeals Court on Friday ruled that President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is illegal. These were put in place on “Liberation Day” on April 2nd. The decision upholds an earlier ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and is now likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court. But in the meantime, it puts into doubt the legality of Trump’s trade deals with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea. Moreover, it the US Supreme Court upholds this decision, it will mean the Trump Administration will have to repay the billions of tariffs collected since April, estimated at roughly $142 billion.

The second event is the ongoing battle over whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook. A federal judge on Friday held an emergency hearing on the matter but did not issue a ruling. Our view is that this battle will go all the way to the Supreme Court and will likely not hold Cook back from voting at the upcoming Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on interest rates later this month.

Turning to look at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, and starting with the US, there will be a number of important reports out this week. The big events will be the Federal Reserve’s release of the Beige Book on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. Also, this week, the ISM indices will be out, giving more clarity on the manufacturing and services sectors, and the JOLTS print on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday.

In Asia, Japan releases Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations for Q2, which is expected to show as much as 3% growth year over year. In China, the August PMIs are out on Sunday, and manufacturing data is out on Monday, while services data is out on Wednesday.

In Europe, we will see the Eurozone CPI report on Tuesday as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il are expected to attend. Putin will afterwards travel to Beijing for meetings with Xi.

· Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Polish Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw and the visit the border between Poland and Belarus. She will then travel to Bulgaria to meet with Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov and visit a defense factor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Oman will implement a "golden visa" for investors and wealthy residents..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 1, 2025

Global

· Egypt will host a G20 meeting on food security in Cairo.

· South Korea assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Guyana holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Centre-left President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C) is likely to be re-elected. However, opposition parties will likely secure a majority in the National Assembly (legislature).

· Today is Labor Day in the United State and Canada. It is a national holiday in both countries. Financial markets are closed.

· Mexican judges elected in the country's first judicial election in June will take office.

· The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission continues its annual meeting in Panama City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Fiscal Balance (July)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Peru Inflation Rate (August)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (July)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

· Japan Capital Spending Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs through September 2 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

· The EU Parliament returns to work from summer holiday.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Lithuania to meet with President Gitana Nauseda and then visit the Lithuania and Belarus border. She will then travel to Romania and meet with President Nicusor Dan and Prime Minister Illie Bolojan and visit the military port of Constana.

· The British Parliament returns to work from their summer holiday.

· Moldova begins negotiations with the EU about joining.

· Today is Slovakia Constitution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a dinner speech at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a panel on 'Autonomy through the internal market and the capital markets union' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will chair a panel on 'Resilience, autonomy and cooperation in payments and clearing systems' at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference titled 'Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation' in Frankfurt Germany.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)/ BoE Consumer Credit (July)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Hungary PPI (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Mexico and Ecuador for bilateral meetings through September 4.

· The US Congress returns to work from its August recess.

· Brazil's Supreme Court hear legal arguments regarding attempted coup charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· USA Redbook (August)/30/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will meet with and give remarks to local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Japan.

· New Zealand Export Prices Q2/ Import Prices Q2/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/02)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (August)

· Japan BoJ Himino Speech

· Thailand Business Confidence (August)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (August)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will chair a panel on 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel entitled 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany

· Romania PPI (July)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Switzerland Retail Sales (July)

· France Budget Balance (July)

· Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Flash (August)/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Machado Speech

· Italy PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Lebanese Armed Forces will present a plan for Hezbollah's disarmament to Lebanon's Cabinet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Global

· The United Nations General Assembly will meet on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will host Polish President Karol Nawrocki at the White House.

· Jamaica holds House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem gives speech at the Peterson Institute in Washington, D.C.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Minnesota Women's Economic Roundtable.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/29)/JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/29)/EARNINGS: Salesforce, HPE, Gitlab, Dollar Tree

· Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q2

· Colombia Exports (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China will hold a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, with 26 foreign leaders in attendance.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (August)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

· Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (August)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/22)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Union's new floating price cap on Russian oil, set at 15% below the six-month average market price, will take effect.

· The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok Russia through September 6.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcoming remarks at the 9th ESRB Conference "Broadening horizons: ESRB’s next decade of impact" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England and Warwick Business School Innovation In Money and Payments Conference.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q2

· Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)/ PPI (August)

· Great Britain BoE L Mann Speech / S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Jordan PPI (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Angola will host its "Angola Oil & Gas" conference in Luanda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

Thursday, September 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, will meet with US trade negotiators in Washington today and Friday.

· US Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran will get a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee to fill out the term of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

· Bloomberg holds its Bloomberg Power Players New York Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before an Economic Club of New York Signature Luncheon.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before mHub Industry Disruptor Series event.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August)/30/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/03) EARNINGS: Broadcom, Lululemon

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (June)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (August)

· Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (July)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/30

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Household Spending (July)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark through September 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Handelsblatt banking summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

· Hungary Retail Sales (July)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· France HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (August)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (August)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

· Ireland Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GNP Q2

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Business Confidence Q3

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Friday, September 5, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil PPI (August)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Wages (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

· USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Earnings (August)/ Government Payrolls (August)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (August)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will host the 12th Japan-Australia meeting of foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo.

· Singapore’s parliament goes into session. This is the first gathering of parliament since the May elections when the ruling People’s Action Party won a commanding majority.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (July)/ Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Singapore Retail Sales (July)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Reform holds it two-day national conference in Birmingham, England.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

· Hungary Industrial Production (July)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Italy Retail Sales (July)

· Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (August)

· Serbia PPI (August)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (August)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Global

· There will be an OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/29/25 Francis Kelly 8/29/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Congress Returns to Work, Senate Banking Holds Miran Fed Confirmation As the Fight over Firing Fed Governor Cook Heats Up

September 1 - 5, 2025

The last days of summer are here as we head into the Labor Day weekend in advance of Washington roaring back to life on Tuesday as Congress returns to work after its August recess. And the future of the Federal Reserve will dominate the week ahead.

The legal and political battle over whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook continues to heat up. Cook filed suit to block the move and a federal judge held a hearing on Friday. In advance of the hearing, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte tweeted out a new allegation against Cook, claiming she may have made false representations on a third property, and he was making yet another criminal referral on Cook’s mortgages to the Justice Department. As to why Pulte is choosing to use Twitter as the way to deal with this important situation is anyone’s guess. No previous FHFA Director has ever done something like this publicly before. But his actions are drawing increasing criticism, and we suspect that when Congress gets back next week, there will be a lot said from leading members about him.

There is little doubt the Cook case is going to go all the way to the Supreme Court – which is going to take time, and she is not going to step away until it is settled – which means, markets should expect her to be voting on interest rates at the September Fed meeting on interest rates.

Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee will be holding a confirmation hearing on Thursday for Stephen Miran’s nomination to fill out the remaining months of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s term (which ends in January). Senate Democrats are demanding that the hearing be held up until the Cook situation is settled, but that is not going to happen. We suspect Miran will likely be confirmed by the full Senate by early October.

Otherwise, there is not a lot going on publicly in Congress or among the regulators. We hope you have a great Labor Day weekend. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Thursday, September 4, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will confirmation hearings for Ben Hobbs, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development; Ronnie Kurtz, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development; Dr. Stephen Miran, to be a Member, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Mr. Christopher Pilkerton, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Treasury; and Jonathan Burke, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Treasury.

House of Representatives

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Wednesday, September 3, 9:00 a.m. – St. Louis Federal Bank President Alberto Musalem will give a speech entitled “The US Economy and Monetary Policy: A Conversation with Alberto Musalem.”

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, September 4, 9:00 p.m. – SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda will deliver the opening remarks at the SIFMA Valuation Roundtable in Washington, DC.

· Thursday, September 4, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Thursday, September 5, 2:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold a Private Markets Valuation Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, September 3, 9:00 a.m. – St. Louis Federal Bank President Alberto Musalem will give a speech entitled “The US Economy and Monetary Policy: A Conversation with Alberto Musalem.”

· Wednesday, September 3, 3:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “The future of financial services regulation: A conversation with CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Fulcrum Perspectives

Global Week Ahead

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The Global Week Ahead

US. Regulatory Week Ahead

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