The Global Week Ahead

France’s Government Faces a Tough No Confidence Vote, Japan’s Prime Minister Resigns, Brazil’s Former President Faces Prison, and the ECB Meets on Interest Rates

September 7 - 14, 2025

It is going to be another action-packed geopolitical week ahead for markets to keep close tabs on as there are a number of events with significant market implications. 

First, French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou faces a no confidence vote on Monday after pushing for an austerity measures to deal with France’s current fiscal deficit which is approaching 5.4%. and the overall highest deficit of any member of the Eurozone.  As things stand now, Bayrou looks like he is going to be forced from office and French President Emmanuel Macron will have to appoint a new prime minister who can mollify the various parliamentary factions and avoid an early legislative election.  That is not going to be easy and, ultimately, it looks as if the only winner out of all this is the far-right National Rally Party.

Overnight in Japan, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru announced he was stepping down after brutal legislative elections in July for his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), leading to losing its parliamentary majority.  Ishiba’s poll numbers were never very strong, but only worsened with President Trump’s tough tariffs on Japan, which Ishiba described as a “national crisis.”  Ishiba has called for the LDP to hold an emergency leadership vote to choose his successor.  No date has been set yet.

Also, this week, there will be a lot of market-impacting political action in Brazil.  Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) is convening on Monday a virtual meeting of the BRICS+ to discuss President Trump’s tariffs and how the BRICS members might form a multilateral response.   Not all of the BRICS leaders will be attending - including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and others – who are instead sending aids to cover the meeting (all of which suggests Lula’s efforts are likely not to come to much in terms of an organized response).

But later in the week, the Brazilian Supreme Court will be considering whether former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and seven former aides and allies are guilty of attempting a coup in 2022 after Bolsonaro lost to Lula in elections.   Heated protests have been held around the country in support of Bolsonaro, showing how politically split the electorate is at the moment.

Turning to the global economic and financial radar screens, the big event of the week is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy meetings.   Market consensus believes the ECB will hold rates at 2% and is looking for more economic assurances before moving to lower rates going forward.

Also, in Europe this week, the UK releases GDP figures on Friday, Germany releases trade figures and industrial production on Monday, and France releases industrial production figures on Tuesday.

In the Americas this week, markets are looking for the August PPI report on Wednesday and the August CPI report on Thursday, probably the two most important reports out before the Federal Reserve decides on rates on September 17th.  Adding to this will be the University of Michigan consumer survey for September on Friday.  Also, this week, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum will unveil the 2026 budget, which will be

Turning to Asia, Japan will release its GDP on Monday and PPI on Thursday. China will be releasing trade data on Monday and CPI on Tuesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ meets to discuss oil output targets.  

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       (To Be Confirmed) Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to visit Argentina through September 10th.

·       In Brazil on Brazil's Independence Day, demonstrations will take place both in support of and in opposition to former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

·       Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 8, 2025

Global

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host a virtual meeting of BRICS leaders to discuss U.S. trade policies and rally support for multilateralism.

·       The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria.  Iran’s nuclear program will be the leading issue discussed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexican President Schoenbaum presents her administration’s draft 2026 budget; budget expected to include plans to increase tariffs on Chinese automotive, textile, and plastics imports.

·       The First Nuclear Energy Conference and Expo sponsored by American Nuclear Society and the Nuclear Energy Institute begins in Atlanta, Georgia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events

·       Chile Inflation Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Consumer Credit Change (July) 

·       USA Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Used Car Prices (August) 

·       Argentina Industrial Production (July) 

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee is held in Beijing through September 12th.  They are expected to approve a numb er of draft laws, including a draft atomic energy law, a draft law on public health emergency response, a draft law on national parks, a draft law on the safety management of hazardous chemicals, and other pressing issues.

·       The Pacific Islands Forum leaders meeting will kick off in Honiara, the capital of the Solomon Islands, bringing together leaders of the body's 18 members. During the five-day gathering, they will discuss challenges facing the region, such as climate change, transnational crime and rising geopolitical tensions between China and West. External partners including the U.S., China, Japan and Taiwan are not invited to the meeting this year.

·       The annual Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, organized by S&P Global, will kick off in Singapore. Hundreds of petroleum, gas, petrochemical, trading, technology and financial executives, as well as senior government officials from across the globe, are set to convene in the city-state, where issues such as the financing of future energy solutions and the impact of technological innovations and disruptions on the energy sector will be discussed.

·       The 14th Seoul Defense Dialogue (SDD) begins in Seoul.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. continues his state visit to Cambodia, which runs through Tuesday, as the two Southeast Asian nations look to boost relations. On the agenda are mutual concerns over transnational crime and efforts to bolster cooperation on agriculture, higher education and tourism, as well as to strengthen market access for bilateral and intra-ASEAN trade.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Chinese investment firm CITIC opens a four-day forum in Hong Kong, bringing in a lineup of top global executives to discuss major issues affecting portfolios. Sessions will cover a range of topics, from cryptocurrencies and China tech to macroeconomic trends.

·       Japan Current Account (July)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Bank Lending (August)/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (August)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (August) 

·       Australia Building Permits (July)/ Private House Approvals (July) 

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Motorbike Sales (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Norway holds parliamentary elections.

·       French government faces confidence vote in National Assembly.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Hungary Budget Balance (August) 

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Jordan Unemployment Rate Q2 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Second Africa Climate Summit takes place in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Global

·        The 80th session of the U.N. General Assembly will open.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: The future of peace operations - Key issues, opportunities and challenges in the context of the review of the future of all UN peace operations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Apple holds its annual media day where it is expected to launch the new iPhone 16.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (August)/ Redbook (September/06)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/05) 

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (August)/ Auto Exports (August)/ Auto Production (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision 

·       Brazil Car Production (August)/ New Car Registrations (August) 

·       EARNINGS: Oracle, Synopsys, GameStop

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       North Korea celebrates Republic Day, marking the day in 1948 when the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was proclaimed and Kim Il Sung was declared its premier.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q2 

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (September)/ NAB Business Confidence (August) 

·       Philippines Industrial Production (July) 

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (August) 

·       Japan Machine Tool Orders (August) 

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August) 

·       Singapore  Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       Indonesia Car Sales (August) 

·       China Standing Committee National People's Congress 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Members of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) will meet in London.

·       The Defense & Security Exports International (DSEI) Fair begins in London and runs through September 12.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (August) 

·       Ireland Construction PMI (August) 

·       Romania Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Montagner Speech 

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (August) 

·       France Industrial Production (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Wednesday, September 10, 2025

Global

·       The UN Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People will convene its 425th meeting in ECOSOC at UNHQ in New York. At this meeting, the Committee will receive briefings by the Permanent Observer Mission of the State of Palestine and Palestinian civil society representatives on the situation in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/05)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/05)/ PPI (August)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/05)/ Monthly Budget Statement (August) 

·       Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Chewy, Daktronics, Vince

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Semicon Taiwan 2025 opens in Taipei. The chip industry's flagship event will welcome over 1,200 companies and is expected to draw more than 100,000 visitors.

·       The 2025 Financial Review Asia Summit takes place in Sydney, Australia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (July) 

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (August) 

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June) 

·       China Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July) 

·       Malaysia Unemployment Rate (July) 

·       Kazakhstan PPI (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen delivers the 2025 State of the Union address in Brussels.  Later in the day, she receives European Tech and Industry CEOs for a working dinner.

·       Widespread protests are expected across France over the current budget proposal being considered by parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       The Governing Council of the European Central Bank begins two days of monetary policy meetings in Frankfurt.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Clauda Buch gives a keynote speech at the BIS Innovation Summit 2025.

·       Slovakia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Spain Industrial Production (July) 

·       Turkey Industrial Production (July) 

·       Italy Industrial Production (July) 

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Greece Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ireland Industrial Production (July) 

·       Euro Area ECB Buch Speech 

·       Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Consumer Confidence (August) 

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (July) 

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference begins in Bangui, Central African Republic.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (August) 

Thursday, September 11, 2025

Global

·       The UN  Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the 1591 Committee (Sudan and whether to renew sanctions), in the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency publishes its monthly oil report.

· The OECD annual report on fiscal reforms is published in Paris.

·       The OPEC Monthly report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazil’s Supreme Court is expected to convict and jail former President Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly plotting a coup to stay in power in 2022.

·       Nadine Menendez, wife of former U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez, is due to be sentenced in a Manhattan district court after being convicted of helping her husband in a scheme to bribe Egyptian officials.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Brazil Retail Sales (July)/ Business Confidence (September) 

·       Mexico Industrial Production (July) 

·       USA Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/06)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/05)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/11)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/10) 

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       EARNINGS: Adobe, Kroger

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (September)/ BSI Large Manufacturing Q3/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/06)/ PPI (August)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/06)/ BoJ JGB Purchases 

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (September) 

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (July) 

·       China Vehicle Sales (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress 

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog travels to London for meetings with UK ministers to discuss the situation in the West Bank and Gaza.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Education Ministers in Copenhagen from September 12.

·       Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s wife, Begona Gomez, along with one of her aides, will testify in court as part of an influence-peddling investigation.

·       Russia, Belarus hold joint military drills called 'Zapad-2025' through September 16.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       European Central Bank Monetary Policy meeting and press conference with President Christine Lagarde.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a panel discussion entitled "Lead, Innovate, Achieve: Championing Sustainability and Social Inclusion for 25 Years" organized by Business in the Community Ireland (BITCI) in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Romania Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Slovakia Construction Output (July) 

·       Turkey Retail Sales (July)/ Auto Production & Sales (August) 

·       ECB Interest Rate Decision/ Marginal Lending Rate/ ECB Press Conference 

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Russia Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (July) 

·       Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Borrowing & Lending Rate (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Ukraine Interest Rate Decision 

·       Germany Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Ministerial Meeting takes place in Sochi, Russia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (August) 

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       South Africa Current Account Q2/ Gold Production (July)/ Mining Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July) 

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (August)   

Friday, September 12, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New York Fashion Week (Spring-Summer) begins.  Derek Zoolander will not be there this year.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Canada Building Permits (July)/ Capacity Utilization Q2 

·       USA Michigan Consumer Sentiment (September)/ Michigan Current Conditions (September)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (September)/ WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/12) 

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (August) 

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (August)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (August) 

·       Australia RBA Jones Speech 

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2 

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (July) 

·       Japan Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (August) 

·       India Inflation Rate (August)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/29)/ Deposit Growth (August/29)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/05) 

·       Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       China New Yuan Loans (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (August)/ Total Social Financing (August) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (August)/ Goods Trade Balance (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (August) 

·       Germany Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Hungary Construction Output (July)/ Industrial Production (July) 

·       France Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Spain Inflation Rate (August) 

·       Turkey Current Account (July) 

·       Romania Current Account (July) 

·       Russia Inflation Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ CBR Press Conference/ GDP Growth Rate Q2 

·       Poland Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July) 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·        Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (July) 

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2 

Saturday, September 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo VIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August)