Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 8/10/25 Francis Kelly 8/10/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

President Trump’s Big Week in Financial Services: Opens Up 401(k)’s Investments, Signs an Executive Order on Debanking, Names a New Fed Governor, and Meets Wall Street CEOs to Get Advice on Privatizing the GSEs

August 11 - 15, 2025

We warned you it would not be a quiet August in Washington. Despite Congress and most Washington movers and shakers being on vacation, President Trump was very busy on a number of financial fronts. On Thursday, he signed an Executive Order (EO) to allow 401(k)s to invest in private equity, cryptocurrency, and real estate. That EO instructs the Department of Labor and the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide guidance to employers and plan administrators on such investments.

The President quickly followed that up with another EO directing bank regulators to look into whether banks discriminate on political and religious grounds that lead to them “debanking” clients – something that happened to Trump after the January 6th riot on Capitol Hill.

We also learned this week that the President met with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan and Citi CEO Jane Fraser to get their ideas on how to privatize the two giant government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The House Financial Services Committee let it be known this past week that they intend to take up legislation in early 2026 to refloat both entities, which were taken over by the US government after the 2008 financial crisis.

And to top it all off, the President was able to name a new Federal Reserve Board Governor following the resignation of Governor Andriana Kugler. Trump named the current Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, Stephen Miran, to fill her seat (which is set to expire in January). While the addition of Miran to the Federal Reserve Board will not necessarily tip the balance of governors voting for a rate cut - Miran won’t be confirmed by the Senate in time for the September Federal Open Markets Committee (FMOC) meeting – it will tip the balance on any votes the Fed Board makes on regulatory issues. The FMOC is composed of all seven members of the Board of Governors and the President of the New York Fed, plus four rotating regional Fed governors. But when the Fed votes on any regulatory issues – like the recent large bank capital rule – it is only the seven-member board of governors casting votes. Long story short: Miran’s joining the board is a big win for Vice Chair Michelle Bowman as she will have a majority of support as she moves to reshape and reform the larger financial regulatory architecture.

The only other big news of the week was that a federal judge ruled the Federal Reserve exceeded its authority on setting limits on debt card interchange fees – a victory for merchants that had opposed the banks and the Fed on the rule. Undoubtedly, this is headed to the appellate court and then probably the Supreme Court.

So what is going to happen this coming week? Right now, there is really not much on the calendar among the regulators other than the Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation holding a board meeting. And the House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institution Subcommittee is holding a field hearing in Riverside, Ohio, on “Securing the Supply Chain.”

And that is about it. We hope you have a great week.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 1.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2. However, the House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee field hearing on "Securing the Supply Chain: The Defense Production Act in Focus." The hearing is being held at the National Museum of the United States Air Force in Riverside, Ohio.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· Thursday, August 14, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will hold a meeting to review the Annual Report on the Farm Credit System’s Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers and Ranchers Mission Performance. They will also get a brief on the Report on Startup Costs for New Farmers and Ranchers.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, August 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Heritage Foundation is holding a panel discussion entitled “The Future of Farming: Exploring a Pro-Health, Pro-Farmer Agenda.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/10/25 Francis Kelly 8/10/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump to Host Putin in Alaska in a Bid for Ukraine Peace, The Deadline for the End of the US–China Tariff Pause Looms, and Markets Get Ready for A Busy Economic Calendar

August 10 - 17, 2025

While most of us were looking forward to a quiet August and some time away from the office and our computer screens, the month is proving to be jam-packed with major geopolitical events and a steady stream of breaking news headlines.

With that in mind, this coming week, arguably one of the biggest events of the year will take place when President Trump hosts Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine. The question of the day is whether or not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be invited to attend the Friday meeting, too, as European leaders are urging Trump to extend an invitation to him.

Considering the initial terms of any ceasefire seem to be allowing Russia to keep Ukrainian land it has seized over the last three years - including Crimea - you would think the Ukrainian President should be present. Zelensky has already rejected the idea of ceding any Ukrainian land to Russia.

Markets and Western leaders intently watch the lead-up to Friday’s meeting (markets and policymakers seem to be bracing for the high likelihood of surprise twists, turns, and demands from Putin in the next few days before the summit) and what might or might not come of it all.

But markets are also focused on Tuesday when the pause on tariffs between China and the US is set to expire. The pause put in place by President Trump brought the tariffs down from 145% to 30% for US tariffs and from 145% to 10% for Chinese tariffs on US goods. As to whether President Trump will again extend the pause is unclear at this point, but seen as likely – perhaps another 90 days – as a way to further warm up relations between Beijing and Washington.

But one complication could be President Trump’s ramping up of tariffs on India for purchasing sanctioned Russian oil, which in turn impacts China as it will likely lead to higher oil prices and raise the question of when Trump will place tariffs on China, which also purchases sanctioned Russian oil and gas.

Another aspect of the Trump tariff efforts is likely to be announced sometime this week, too, when the President announces the results of Section 232 investigations in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. It is expected he will slap heavy tariffs on both sectors, perhaps as high as 150% on pharmaceuticals and 100% on semiconductors.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a busy week of data releases and reports. In the US, the July CPI report is out on Tuesday, PPI is out Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment for August is out Friday. On top of these three big reports, we will see retail sales figures and industrial production numbers out on Friday.

In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Monday. China released inflation data on Saturday (which was reported as being flat). This coming Friday, China will be releasing its house price index, industrial production numbers, retail sales, and unemployment figures. And Japan will be releasing PPI on Wednesday and Q2 GDP figures on Friday.

Moving over to Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey and CPI are released on Tuesday, and the UK releases Q2 GDP figures on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 11, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: Maritime security: Prevention, innovation and international cooperation to address emerging challenges.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump will hold a press conference to address crime in Washington, D.C. Trump may announce his intention to call out the National Guard to help enforce a crackdown on crime.

· Peru's President Dina Boluarte visits Japan and Indonesia.

· The US Congress is in recess for the month of August and returns September 2.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Industrial Production (June)

· Canada BoC Market Participants Survey

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam's General Secretary To Lam and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will hold a bilateral summit part of Lam's four-day state visit to South Korea through Wednesday. Lam will be the first foreign leader hosted by Lee since the South Korean president took office in June, and the visit comes at a time of blossoming bilateral ties.

· Today is Mountain Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference

· Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)

· Malaysia Construction Output Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Salzburg Festival 2025 begins and runs through August 31.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania Balance of Trade (June)

· Slovakia Construction Output (June)

· Turkey Industrial Production (June)/ Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)

· Italy Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (June)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (July)

· Russia Balance of Trade (June)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Chad.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (June)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)

Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).

· OPEC releases its monthly report on oil production.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The temporary pause agreed to between the US and China on trade tariffs expires.

· Uruguayan unions will conduct a partial strike to oppose the wage adjustment for public sector workers.

· Mexico hosts a U.N. conference on the status of women in Latin America and the Caribbean.

· In French Guiana, the Ariane 6 rocket launch, carrying EUMETSAT’s Metop-SGA1 satellite, is the first of the next generation of European polar-orbiting weather satellites.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin addresses the Health Management Academy at the Four Seasons Hotel Chicago.

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ Redbook (August/09)/ Fed Schmid Speech/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/08)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (July)

· Canada Building Permits (June)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)

· India Inflation Rate (July)

· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/ PPI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Norway’s sovereign wealth fund releases an updated list of its holdings in the 9,000 companies it is invested in worldwide, plus second-quarter results, at a press conference in Arendalsuka, Norway.

· Armenia and the US will hold joint military exercise in Armenia – The Eagle Partner 2025 – through August 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)/ Claimant Count Change (July)

· Ireland Construction PMI (July)

· Romania Inflation Rate (July)

· Turkey Current Account (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ ZEW Current Conditions (August)/ Current Account (June)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Jordan Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Gold Production (June)/ Mining Production (June)/ Unemployed Persons Q2

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

· Angola Wholesale Prices (June)

Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Global

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its monthly oil production report for all OECD member countries.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at the Greenville Chamber of Commerce in Greenville, South Carolina.

· Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at a lunch hosted by the state central bank alongside the Franklin County Economic Development Authority

· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks on regional monetary policy at a lunch, hosted by the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/08)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/08)

· Brazil Retail Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)

· Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations

· Argentina Inflation Rate (July)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)

· Peru Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ PPI (July)/ Machine Tool Orders (July)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)

· Singapore Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAY

· Australia Home Loans Q2/ Investment Lending for Homes Q2/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q2

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· China Vehicle Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Wholesale Prices (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (July)

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)

· Romania Current Account (June)

· Serbia Current Account (June)

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union – AIP Water Investment Summit 2025 begins in Cape Town, South Africa and runs through August 15.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (June)

Thursday, August 14, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Venezuelan unions will stage demonstrations against government repression in Caracas..

Economic Reports/Events –

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a webinar conversation hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/02)/ PPI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/08)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/14)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/13)

· Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Hong Kong, the trial of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai reconvenes for closing arguments. The founder of the pro-democracy news outlet Apple Daily, which was forced to close in 2021, has been held in solitary confinement for nearly 1,700 days under the controversial national security law that China imposed on the city. Western governments and human rights groups have called for his release.

· Pakistan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)

· Australia Employment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

· India WPI Food Index (July)/ WPI Fuel (July)/ WPI Inflation (July)/ WPI Manufacturing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)

· Kazakhstan GDP (July)

· China New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (July)/ GDP (June)/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ Construction Orders Q2/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Labour Productivity Q2/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

· Hungary Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)

· France Inflation Rate (July)

· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)

· Poland Inflation Rate (July)

· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)

· Russia Current Account Q2

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (July)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)/ SACCI Business Confidence (July)

· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2

Friday, August 15, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump to meet his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, in Alaska to discuss a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine conflict.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (June)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Expectations/ Conditions Prel (August)/ Business Inventories (June)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/15)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)

· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Prime Minister Narendra Modi gives a speech at the Red Fort in Delhi to mark the anniversary of India’s independence from British rule in 1947.

· Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is set to deliver his first State of the Nation Address, in which he will explain the government's priority programs for the coming year. The speech will also include key economic targets, highlighting the administration's fiscal direction under his leadership. The address comes ahead of Indonesia's 80th Independence Day celebrations on Sunday.

· Madagascar will host the 45th summit of the Southern African Development Community in Antananarivo. The members of the Community include Angola, Botswana. Comoros , Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar , Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique. Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa. Tanzania. Zambia and Zimbabwe.

· Beijing hosts the 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games, the first global sporting event dedicated solely to humanoid robots, which runs until Sunday.

· Today is Independence Day in South Korea. Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ Food Inflation (July)/ Visitor Arrivals (June)

· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/09)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/09)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

· China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ FDI (YTD) (July)

· Malaysia Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2

· India Bank Loan Growth (August/01)/ Deposit Growth (August/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (June)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Liechtenstein National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (July)

· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Ireland Balance of Trade (June)

· Serbia Building Permits (June)

· Turkey Budget Balance (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa will hold its first-ever National Convention with political, business, and civil rights groups.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 16, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

§ India celebrates Janmashtami, a Hindu festival marking the birth of Krishna, the eighth avatar of Vishnu, featuring dramatic re-enactments of the life of Krishna throughout Mathura and Vrindavan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 17, 2025

Global

· Today is the 80th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Gabon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/8/25 Francis Kelly 8/8/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The White House Releases Digital Financial Technology Report, Fed Governor Kugler Steps Down, the SEC Takes a Road Trip While the Rest of Washington Goes on Vacation

August 4 - 8, 2025

Congress is gone until early September, and lawyers, lobbyists, and public affairs experts are streaming out of the Capital for vacation. There is not a lot going on this week in the financial regulatory space other than Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaking at the Kansas Bankers Association.

But last week ended up being a blockbuster of regulatory activity before vacations started. First, the White House released its long-awaited report “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology.” The report is chock-full of orders for the SEC and CFTC to begin the process of further refining the crypto regulatory world and recommendations for Congress to move on legislation.

The report came on the heels of a major speech by SEC Chair Paul Akins launching a new initiative at the SEC seeking to update the financial markets and its structure. Dubbed “Project Crypto” the overall will touch all aspects of the financial markets the SEC regulates.

But we also saw at the CFTC another setback for Chair-nominee Brian Quintenz’s confirmation – this time being the White House asking the Senate Agriculture Committee to hold up on a committee confirmation vote for unexplained reasons. A variety of wild reasons are being pointed to being the cause ranging from the Winklevoss twins complaining about Quintenz to President Trump to forces inside leading emails putting Quintenz in a bad light (the best read-out of the situation can be found in July 31 edition of Capitol Account – still by the far the best in-depth regulatory source you can find out there.). Whatever the reason, Quintenz is not likely going to get confirmed until late September or sometime in October at the earliest.

Also last week, Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler announced her intention to step down from the Fed five months early. This gives President Trump the opportunity to put one more friendly vote on the Fed. What we are waiting for is to see if another Fed Governor steps down soon, too. We have reason to believe another has raised his hand inside the Fed to Chair Jay Powell. When that resignation comes, we do not know. But it is coming.

As we said above, there really is not much going on this week in Washington, as you can see below. We hope you have a great week.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 1.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

Federal Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Wednesday, August 6, 2:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the U.S and Global Economy at A Central Bank Perspective on the Evolving Global Landscape Conference (virtual). Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins will also speak.

· Thursday, August 7, 10:00 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic's takes part in a virtual fireside chat during a session with the Florida Institute of CFOs.

· Saturday, August 9, 12:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Kansas Bankers Association (KBA) CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· August 4 – December 5 – The SEC’s Crypto Task Force begins holding regional roundtables around the country to hear from representatives of crypto-related projects that have 10 or fewer employees and are less than two years old.

· Thursday, August 7, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/4/25 Francis Kelly 8/4/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Threatens Greater Sanctions on Russia While Sending An Envoy to Talk With Putin – and Nuclear Subs Off Russia’s Coast, The Tariff Wars Intensify for Some Countries, and the Bank of England Decides on Rates

August 3 - 10, 2025

It is summer holiday time in most northern hemisphere countries, with heads of state and parliaments out for most of the month of August, getting some rest and relaxation. But there is still plenty going on geopolitically – perhaps the most important being President Trump’s ratcheting up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to sit down and start negotiating a peace treaty with Ukraine. Trump has at one point given Putin until Thursday to agree to talks or the US will consider massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil exports.

Additionally, last week, Trump announced he was sending two nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” in response to remarks from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev holds the mostly ceremonial post of Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council – an institution with no power or decision-making ability – had said on a Telegram posting that "If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path” and that Trump should remember “how dangerous the fabled ‘Dead Hand” can be” – a reference to a secret Russian command system designed to launch nuclear missiles if the Russian leadership is killed by an enemy strike. Medvedev is known for his highly provocative tweets toward the West, which tend to get more threatening and wacky as the evening progresses (if you get what we mean).

The other big geopolitical event of the week is President Trump’s tough new tariffs on Brazil, Switzerland, India, Canada, and other nations that have not successfully completed negotiations with the US going into effect. And the other 10-15 percent tariffs on those major trading partners that have cut a deal with the US are expected to go into effect, too.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, aside from the trade tariffs and the prospect of new deals being announced, the big event of the week is the Bank of England deciding on interest rates on Thursday. There are very few central banker speeches this week (perhaps everyone is saving their voices for speeches at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium August 22-24).

The major economic reports in the US this week include factory orders on Monday and services ISM and trade balance data on Tuesday. Also coming out are nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs due Thursday.

Turning to Asia, China’s trade balance is published on Thursday, and inflation figures on Friday. Japan reports wage growth on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday.

And in Europe, Germany releases inflation figures, GDP growth, and factory order figures on Wednesday, while Switzerland releases its CPI on Monday. Europe will also see a slew of corporate earnings reports this week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 3, 2025

Global

· The OPEC+ monthly meeting (virtual) is held.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos begins a state visit in India.

· China and Russia begin Joint Sea-2025 naval exercise off the coast of Vladivostok in the Sea of Japan through Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian concludes a two-day visit to Pakistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Congress is in recess for the month of August. They return on September 2.

· Today is Natal Day in Canada, which honors the province of Nova Scotia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (June)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

· USA Factory Orders (June)/ Total Vehicle Sales (July)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will hold a Diet is expected to meet to discuss the recent U.S.-Japan trade deal, which may spur new trade demands from Tokyo.

· South Korea will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's Digital and Artificial Intelligence Ministerial Meeting through August 6.

· The Thailand-Cambodia General Border Committee will meet in Malaysia through August 7 in an effort to further solidify a peace treaty.

· Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will visit Egypt and Angola through August 9.

· Today is Cooks Island Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Parliament is on summer recess and returns August 22. Meanwhile, the UK Parliament is in recess until September 1, the French Parliament is in recess until September 1, and the German Bundestag (Parliament) is in recess until September 9, .

· Today is the Summer Bank Holiday in Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Romania PPI (June)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Spain Unemployment Change (July)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

· France New Car Registrations (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli President Isaac Herzog will begin a three-day visit to the Baltic countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan PPI (June)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Founder’s Day in Ghana, honoring Dr. Kwame Nkumak who was the country’s first president.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Global

· The Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries will take place in Awaza, Turkmenistan through August 8.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff is expected to arrive in Moscow for talks with senior Russian officials seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August/02)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services PMI (July)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil & Gasoline Stock Change (August/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

· Colombia Exports (June)/ PPI (July)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will hold a short Diet session today, during which the ruling party's right wing may table a vote to seek Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ouster.

· The Ketagalan Forum on Indo-Pacific Security begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)/ Household Spending (June)

· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (July)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q2

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ Vehicle Sales (July)

· France Industrial Production (June)/ Budget Balance (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Spain Industrial Production (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Serbia PPI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (July)

· Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Ghana’s President John Mahama hosts African political leaders and policymakers at the Africa Health Sovereignty Summit in Accra.

· Today is Independence Day in Burkina Faso.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (July)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

· Ghana Inflation Rate (July)

Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1540 Committee (the UN Security Council committee focused on preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The new U.S. 40% tariff on Brazilian goods goes into effect at midnight. which compounds the current 10% duty, goes into force. Also, going into force will be of higher custom duties on EU, Switzerland, Thailand, and Vietnam.

· Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez Morales gives press conference about waterway's future as BlackRock seeks to secure the purchase of two ports on either end of the canal.

· Today is Independence Day in Bolivia, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Jamaica.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the U.S and Global Economy at A Central Bank Perspective on the Evolving Global Landscape Conference (virtual) hosted by the Reserve Bank of Boston. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins will also speak.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/01)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/01)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/01)

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the 80th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.

· Philippine senators are set to convene to decide whether to proceed with the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, a week after the country's top court dismissed a previous impeachment attempt.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Employment Change Q2/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Labour Costs Index Q2/ Participation Rate Q2

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (July)/ Ai Group Construction Index (July)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (July)

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· The Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (July/25)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the earliest deadline given by President Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin to respond to demands for a peace deal to end the Ukraine War.

· Poland's president-elect, Karol Nawrocki, officially takes office.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)

· Germany Factory Orders (June)/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

· Romania Retail Sales (June)

· Hungary Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· France Private Non-Farm Payrolls / HCOB Construction PMI (July)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The U.S.-Africa Energy Forum will take place in Houston, Texas, through August 7.

· Today is the deadline for banks, securities dealers, and investors to submit proposals for raising $500 million to finance South Africa’s 2025-26 fiscal year plans.

· The African Development Bank and the Central African Republic’s government inaugurate new water and sanitation facilities in Bangui.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 7, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS).

· The 12th annual The World Games, a quadrennial international multi-sport event featuring events not contested at the Olympic Games, begins in Chengdu, capital of the Sichuan province in China and runs through, August 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Approximately 70 unions will join together to protest against Argentine President Javier Milei’s economic reform policy. Widespread travel disruptions are expected.

· The US Federal Communications Commission holds an open meeting that will include discussion of space.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic's takes part in a virtual fireside chat during a session with the Florida Institute of CFOs.

· Brazil PPI (June)/ Car Production (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/02)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August)/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/06)/ Used Car Prices (July)

· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (July)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

· Argentina Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai International Semiconductor Tech & Application Innovation Expo begins and runs through August 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (June)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/02)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

· Australia RBA Connolly Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Private House Approvals

· Philippines Industrial Production (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

· Malaysia Industrial Production (June)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Greece Balance of Trade (June)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)/ Treasury Cash Balance (July)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Hungary Budget Balance (July)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the Ivory Coast.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Friday, August 8, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to speak at a Mississippi Delta event.

· Chile Inflation Rate (July)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Wages (July)

· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/08)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Prominent Hong Kong democracy activist Joshua Wong once again faces trial, after he was charged in June for allegedly conspiring to collude with foreign forces. Wong, who was already sentenced last November to four years and eight months in prison for conspiracy to subvert state power, could see his prison time increase by anywhere from three years to a life sentence as a result of the new national security charge.

· The World Robot Conference takes place in Beijing, China. More than 1,500 exhibits, 200 companies and more than 50 makers of humanoid robots will be on display.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (June)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

· Kazakhstan Current Account Q2

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· China Current Account Q2

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France Unemployment Rate Q2

· Hungary Inflation Rate (July)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)

· Greece Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Ireland Industrial Production (June)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt Inflation Rate (July)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 9, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the At the Kansas Bankers Association (KBA) CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Singapore National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference will take place in Bangui.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/1/25 Francis Kelly 8/1/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The White House Puts a Hold on Quintenz Confirmation Vote, NCUA Democrat Board Members Back On… and Then Back Off, and Housing Policy Moves into Focus

July 28 - August 1, 2025

It’s going to be a quiet week in Washington. The House of Representatives began its traditional August recess last week, and the Senate is expected to leave at the end of this week—though they may stick around longer at President Trump’s request to address the confirmation backlog. As you can see from the calendar below, things are winding down in D.C. as everyone heads off for much-needed summer vacations.

But as the Senate works to clear that nominee backlog, one name has been held back yet again: the Senate Agriculture Committee once more decided at the last minute not to bring up Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair nominee Brian Quintenz for a confirmation vote. Interestingly—and concerning for the future of Quintenz’s nomination—it was the White House that weighed in this morning, with no explanation, and asked Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-AR) to delay the vote. That means Quintenz won’t get a committee vote until at least September.

Meanwhile, a federal appeals court reinstated two Democratic members of the Federal Credit Union Administration who had been fired by President Trump. However, any hope of their return was short-lived: the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals issued an emergency order overruling the decision and blocking their reinstatement. This case is clearly headed to the Supreme Court, though it’s unclear when that will happen.

In another development, a federal appellate court on Friday struck down a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) order that would have required brokers to help fund the massive Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) database used by regulators. Championed by then-SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the plan was rejected by the court, which said the SEC had not “adequately justified its choices” or conducted a sufficient economic analysis.

In the Senate, a bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced legislation aimed at increasing private investment in affordable housing and other community development projects. Led by Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), the Community Investment and Prosperity Act will receive close scrutiny this fall.

Congress also received a notable report last Thursday from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on the potential impact of releasing mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae from government control. The report indicates that while returning the companies to public ownership would generate some budgetary savings, it would also result in costs—mainly because the federal government would no longer receive income from their earnings. You can read the report HERE. Re-floating the two GSEs is a priority for President Trump and has gained traction on Capitol Hill in recent months, along with many supporters on Wall Street.

Below are the meetings and events of note happening in Washington this week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Tuesday, July 29, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will go into Executive Session to consider the ROAD to Housing Act 2025. You can read about the legislation HERE.
Wednesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Securities, Insurance, and Investment Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Guardrails and Growth: AI’s Role in Capital and Insurance Markets.”

House of Representatives

The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to consider interest rates. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, July 31, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

Thursday, July 31, 12:00 p.m. – National Credit Union Administration Chair Kyle Hauptman speaks at the Women in Housing and Finance.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

Thursday, July 31, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC will hold a Consumer Protection and Older Adult Roundtable.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Wednesday, July 30 – The Institute for International Finance holds its 2025 Tax Conference in New York.
Thursday, July 31, 12:00 p.m. – National Credit Union Administration Chair Kyle Hauptman speaks at the Women in Housing and Finance.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Tuesday, July 29, 7:30 a.m. – Axios holds a discussion on "Opening Doors: Expanding Pathways to Homeownership."
Tuesday, July 29, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a virtual event entitled “Unpacking the consequences of the new US tax and budget legislation.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 7/28/25 Francis Kelly 7/28/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trade Deal and Tariff Deadlines Dominate the Geopolitical Week, Japan’s Diet Meets on the Future of Ruling Coalition, the UN Holds a Conference on a Two-State Solution, and the Fed Meets on Interest Rates

July 27 – August 3, 2025

Trade and tariff deadlines will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week. At the time of this writing, President Trump—who is vacationing in Scotland—has clinched a deal with the European Union, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm to discuss an extension of the freeze on trade tariffs.

The U.S.-EU deal would impose a 15 percent tariff on all EU imports, while the EU commits to buying $750 billion in U.S. energy products and another $600 billion in unspecified investments in the U.S. Not everyone is happy in the EU: France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou blasted the deal, saying, “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission.” We would advise markets to keep a sharp eye on whether the deal holds together in the coming days.

Bessent’s meeting with Vice Premier He is likely to produce both a continued suspension of new trade tariffs and progress toward a possible summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

All this comes as August 1st—Trump’s ultimate trade deadline for all countries—looms. South Korea, Canada, Mexico (three of the U.S.’s five largest trading partners), and other nations are racing to cut deals with the U.S. before draconian tariffs are put in place Friday. This includes a 50 percent tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. Japan and the EU—the other two top-five trading partners aside from China—now have tentative deals in place.

Also this week, the United Nations will be holding a two-day conference spearheaded by France and Saudi Arabia on creating a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The meeting comes only a few days after France announced it is recognizing a Palestinian state—a move not replicated by the rest of the European Union.

In Asia, markets will be watching what happens in Japan’s parliament—the Diet—after last week’s Upper House elections tossed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party from power. Will Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition try to continue governing as a minority government, and will policy paralysis emerge, potentially impacting the Bank of Japan’s interest rate strategy?

Looking at the global economic radar screen, summer holidays are clearly taking place for most central bankers—very few speeches are scheduled (in fact, none are scheduled by any member of the European Central Bank—we can’t remember the last time we saw a week go by without at least one of them speaking somewhere). But central bank action will dominate markets this week nonetheless, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meeting on interest rates.

The Fed meetings are being particularly closely watched, with all the political fireworks being fired off by the White House toward Fed Chair Jay Powell, demanding he lower rates. Market consensus is that a rate cut is unlikely for now, but more voices are suggesting it may happen in September.

Looking at economic reports this week in the U.S., the big one is the jobs report on Friday, which will be preceded by the JOLTS and ADP reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The U.S. Q2 GDP print is out Wednesday, and June PCE is out Thursday. Also, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for July is out Tuesday. Finally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report is out Friday.

In Europe, the European Central Bank will publish its consumer expectations survey on Tuesday. This is followed by GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the broader Eurozone on Wednesday, with inflation prints for those same countries out Thursday. Employment reports will also be released throughout the week.

Moving to Asia, China releases July PMIs on Thursday, along with June industrial production and retail sales. Japan releases July consumer confidence and retail sales.

What will consume markets, of course, is the flood of corporate earnings this week—almost 40 percent of the S&P 500 will report. Most of Europe’s major corporations are also reporting this week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 27, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 28, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East, Syria.

· The United Nations High-Level International Conference on the Peacefull Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution will be held through July 29 in New York. The meeting is being co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia and comes days after France would formally recognize Palestine as a state.

· The Catholic Church holds the Jubilee of Youth through August 3 in Rome. More than 1 million young people are expected to attend.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump meets with UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer in Aberdeen, Scotland.

· US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Stockholm, Sweden to negotiate an extension of the trade tariff truce.

· The US House of Representatives are out for the August recess and return September 2. The US Senate is likely to go out of session for the August recess this coming weekend.

· A Colombian court is expected announce verdict against former president Alvaro Uribe. He was charged with bribery of witnesses and procedural fraud dealing with an investigation into his supposed ties to right-wing paramilitary groups.

· Today is Independence Day in Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Bank Lending (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Est

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Lawmakers from Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will hold a Diet meeting to review a recent election loss, which may influence the prime minister's fate.

· ASEAN Environmental Officials will hold its 36th annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur through July 31.

· The World Artificial Intelligence Conference is being held through July 29 in Shanghai, China to discuss global AI governance.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos delivers his State of the Nation Address.

· Monsoon season officially begins in India.

· The GIIAS motor show begins in South Tangerang, Indonesia. It is the largest automotive exhibition in Southeast Asia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (July)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

· Malaysia PPI (June)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia hosts the Agile Spirit 2025 military drills with NATO through August 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum, hosted by Afreximbank and the Grenada government, takes place in St George’s, the Caribbean island’s capital city.

· The Communications Regulators’ Association of Southern Africa holds its Consumer Committee meeting in DR Congo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the 2745 sanctions (arms embargo on the Central African Republic). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of international peace and security: UN Peace Operations.

· The 2025 Global Conference on Climate and Health will be held from July 31 through in Brasilia, Brazil. This Global Conference is co-organized by the Government of Brazil, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and the Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate and Health (ATACH), and will serve as the annual, in-person meeting of ATACH members.

· The Sixth World Conference of Speakers of Parliament begins in Geneva, Switzerland and runs through July 31. The event includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Iran and Israel.

· The IMF publishes its report on state of world economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins policy meetings on interest rates.

· USA Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (June)/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ Redbook (July/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/25)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Territory Day in the islands of Wallis and Futuna, celebrating when they became a French Overseas Territory in 1961.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q2

· Singapore Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with Jordan's King Abdullah II in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee decides on interest rates. A press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will be held at 2 p.m.

· The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision and releases its Monetary Policy Report. Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference in the afternoon.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Net Payrolls (June)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/25)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ GDP Sales Q2/ PCE Prices Q2/ Real Consumer Spending Q2/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (July/25)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Fiscal Balance (June)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (June)

· Colombia Business Confidence (June)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in Singapore.

· Today is Independence Day in the Island nation of Vanuatu.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan begins meetings on interest rates.

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)

· Australia Inflation Rate Q2/ Monthly CPI Indicator (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q2/ CPI Q2/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q2

· China FDI (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Household Consumption (June)

· Germany Retail Sales (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)/ Economic Sentiment Index (July)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Sales (May)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Consumer Confidence Final (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

· Greece PPI (June)

· Ireland Retail Sales (June)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem makes an address for the anniversary of Commander Fuad Shukr's killing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Annual African Finance Association Conference is held in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

· South Africa Budget Balance (June)

Thursday, July 31, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· New U.S. tariffs on several trade partners, including South Korea and Japan, will come into effect, barring new trade deals.

· NASA's SpaceX Crew-11 launches to the International Space Station (ISS).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Personal Income & Spending (June)/ Employment Cost Index Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/26)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/19)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July)/ Chicago PMI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/31)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/30)

· Canada GDP (May)

· Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan is tentatively scheduled to hold a post-election extraordinary Diet session to elect new heads of the upper house.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decisions and Quarterly Outlook Report

· Japan Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/26)/Consumer Confidence (July)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)

· Australia Building Permits (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Import Prices Q2/ Export Prices Q2/ Housing Credit (June)/ Private House Approvals (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Totality Dwelling Prices (July)

· China NBS Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ General PMI (July)

· Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Business Confidence Q2

· Thailand Industrial Production (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption & Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (May)/ PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

· India Government Budget Value (June)

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Hungary PPI (June)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

· France Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (June)/ Tourism Revenues Q2/ Tourist Arrivals (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (July)

· Spain Current Account (May)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (July)

· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (June)

· Greece Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Ukraine Current Account (June)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (June)/ GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

Friday, August 1, 2025

Global

· Panama takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s 50 percent tariff on imported copper goes into effect.

· Today is Emancipation Day in Guyana.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Mexico Business Confidence (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Earnings (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Weekly Hours (July)/ Government Payrolls (July)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (July)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (July)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/01)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/01)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Peru Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence/ Building Permits (June)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ PPI Q2/ Commodity Prices (July)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/18)/ Deposit Growth (July/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (July)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Switzerland's National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Romania PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (June)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Benin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the official start of the compliance period for EU rules on general-purpose AI models like ChatGPT and Google's Gemini.

· Today is Republic Day in North Macedonia.

· Cowes Week, the largest and longest-running international sailing regatta in the world, begins on the Isle of Wight, running until August 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 3, 2025

Global

· The OPEC+ monthly meeting (virtual) is held.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos begins a state visit to India.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 7/20/25 Francis Kelly 7/20/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Fed Holds a Conference on Large Bank Capital Standards, Congress Passes the First-Ever Crypto Reg Bill and Tees Up More Legislation, And Will the SEC and CFTC Merge?

July 21 - 25, 2025

Washington is currently experiencing the hottest July in recorded history, peppered by what seems like almost daily massive thunderstorms. But neither beating sun nor driving rain is slowing down the financial regulatory world in the nation’s capital. A lot is going on.

First, Congress has just passed, and President Trump signed into law, the first-ever major legislative cryptocurrency law, creating new rules for stablecoins. It is a major victory for the crypto industry. Additionally, the House passed on Thursday by a 294-1345 margin much broader crypto legislation, which would create a brand-new market structure for crypto.

This comes as news broke President Trump is preparing to sign an executive order soon allowing the $9 trillion US retirement market to invest in crypto as well as gold and private equity. This would include 401(k) plans as well as pensions.

Congress was busy this past week on a number of other fronts of interest and concern to the markets. We would first note first that the Chairman of the House Select Committee on China, Representative John Moolenaar (R-MI) and the Chair of the Senate Special Committee on Aging, Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) sent letters to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC0 and the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) demanding an urgent briefing on the risks posed to US investors by Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges. Their letter revives a debate in Congress to force the delisting of Chinese companies (which we would point out have a combined market capitalization of $1.1 trillion). Our view is, barring a major, unseen negative turn in US-China relations, the delisting effort will peter out eventually. But it is a serious pressure point and worth watching.

Meanwhile, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins made headlines on Thursday when he signaled his support for merging the SEC with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This is not a new idea – indeed, we remember 30+ years ago a raging debate over merging the two, which did not go well. But these are different times as the Trump Administration is driving massive structural and budgetary changes to the federal government.

Atkins also this past week pushed out the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), Erica Williams (who had been put there by the Biden Administration). The move had long been expected and is seen as part of a likely consolidation of the PCAOB into the SEC in the near future.

Finally, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell continued to weather considerable criticism for the $1.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. In fact, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) said Thursday in a post on X that she is “criminally referring” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the Justice Department to “investigate perjury” regarding the $2.5 billion renovation project. We do not think this will be taken up by Justice, but it shows how ugly the issue has become. But something a relief valve may have emerged on Friday when the Associated Press reported the most expensive renovations were actually initially pushed for by three Trump appointees on the Commission of Fine Arts which advises the federal government on architecture.

Looking at the week ahead, the Senate Agriculture Committee announced they will (finally) vote on the confirmation of CFTC Chair-nominee Brian Quintenz on Monday. Quintenz then has then get a full confirmation vote by the full Senate. Looking at the Senate calendar – which includes the Senate being out of session for all of August – this suggests to us Quintenz probably will not get that final confirmation vote until late September or sometime in October. The Senate wheels move slowly, and the most precious commodity in the world may actually be finding time on the Senate floor schedule to get anything done.

And the big event of the week will be at the Federal Reserve, which is holding its “Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference.” Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will both speak. The conference is a prelude to forthcoming major changes to bank capital standards, something big banks have been pushing hard for in recent years.

Below are the meetings and events happening this week in Washington of note:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, July 22, 9:45 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a markup to vote on the nominations of Joseph Barloon to be a deputy U.S. Trade Representative in the Geneva Office, and Brian Morrissey Jr., to be general counsel for the Treasury Department.

· Tuesday, July 22, 10:15 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nominations of Jonathan McKernan to be a Treasury undersecretary for Domestic Finance.

· Wednesday, July 23, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee will vote on the confirmation of CFTC Chair nominee Brian Quintenz as well as several nominees for the Department of Agriculture.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, July 22, 10:00 a.m. and Wednesday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing to markup various measures (17 measures in total).

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Tuesday, July 22, 8:30 a.m. – The Federal Reserve Board of Governors holds it "Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference." Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks and at 1:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Michelle Bowman delivers remarks.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Tuesday, July 22, 10:00 a.m. – Securities and Exchange Commission holds a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.

· Thursday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· Thursday, July 24, 10:00 a.m. – The National Credit Union Administration Board will hold a meeting. The agenda includes A briefing on artificial intelligence; A briefing from the NCUA Ombudsman; and a briefing on the Central Liquidity Facility.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Thursday, July 22, 2:00 p.m. – The Justice Department's Antitrust Division; the Federal Trade Commission; the Commerce Department; and the Health and Human Services Department holds a virtual event, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Formulary and Benefit Practices and Regulatory Abuse Impacting Drug Competition."

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Tuesday, July 22, 5:00 p.m. – The American Bar Association holds its 2025 Antitrust Regional Reception.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, July 21, 8:30 a.m. – The American Enterprise Institute holds a panel discussion entitled "International Tax Cooperation and Competition: A Reset."

· Tuesday, July 22, 9:15 a.m. – The Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Purdue University's Business School, the Brandeis International Business School's Institute of Global Finance, the University of Texas at Austin Public Affairs School, and the University of Chicago Public Policy School's Center for Municipal Finance hold the 14th annual Municipal Finance Conference in Washington, D.C.

· Tuesday, July 22, 12:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "Litigation Update: FTC v. Meta."

· Tuesday – Thursday, July 22 – 25 – The Center for Global Development holds its annual Bank Conference on Development Economics 2025, with the theme "Development in the Age of Populism."

· Wednesday, July 23, 8:00 a.m. – Axios holds a discussion on the impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" as well as what's next for the remainder of the year and heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), a member of the Senate Banking Committee, will speak.

· Wednesday, July 23, 11:00 a.m. – The R Street Institute holds a virtual panel discussion entitled “Reconciliation Lookback: Farm Subsidy Policy and the Future of the Farm Bill.” This will include a heavy focus on the impact on crop insurance and federal farm policy overall.

· Wednesday, July 23, 1:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a virtual event entitled “Accelerating local climate investment amid federal uncertainty.”

· Thursday, July 24, 11:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a rescheduled event entitled “The House Financial Services Committee Agenda: A Conversation with Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA).

· Thursday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – The Cato Institute holds a forum on "Removing Barriers to Capital Formation."

· Thursday, July 24, 3:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "The Past, Present, and Future of Credit Scores in Housing Finance."

Recommended Reading

How Shadow Banking Reshapes the Optimal Mix of Regulation Liberty Street Economics/Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Decisions that are privately optimal often impose externalities on other agents, giving rise to regulations aimed at implementing socially optimal outcomes. In the banking industry, regulations are particularly heavy, plausibly reflecting a view by regulators that the relevant externalities could culminate in financial crises and destabilize the broader economy. Over time, the toolkit for regulating banks and bank-like institutions has expanded, as has banks’ restructuring of activities into shadow banking to lessen the regulatory burden. This post, based on our recent Staff Report, explores the optimal mix of prudential tools for bank regulators in a wide range of environments.
The Dodd-Frank Act at 15: Has It Worked? Paul Kupiec/American Enterprise Institute
In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on July 15, AEI Scholar Pau Kupiec argued that “Judging the Dodd-Frank Act by its own preamble, the Act is a failure. Notwithstanding the many complex and intrusive provisions of the Act, the financial system experienced a systemic banking crisis in March 2023. Widespread bank runs were averted when the federal government was forced to take measures to bailout the banking system.” Kupiec, who is the former Director of Research at the FDIC, goes on to say that “…the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has little ability to detect and mitigate actual risk created by so-called systemically important financial institutions or unregulated markets.”
Spotting Financial Crisis’s Early MacroXX Substack
Economists have long debated whether financial crises can be foreseen. While this question is not new, a notable study from March 2021 provides clear evidence that crises can often be predicted—typically triggered by rapid credit growth alongside sharp increases in asset prices. Harvard researchers Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Sørensen showed that financial crises aren’t just freak accidents—they often build up in plain sight. According to this study, financial crises can be forecasted by examining past credit growth in businesses and households using relatively simple models.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 7/18/25 Francis Kelly 7/18/25

Fulcrum Perspectives

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Global Week Ahead

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Recommended Weekend Reads

Subscribe to our newsletter.