The Global Week Ahead

Jul 28

Trade Deal and Tariff Deadlines Dominate the Geopolitical Week, Japan’s Diet Meets on the Future of Ruling Coalition, the UN Holds a Conference on a Two-State Solution, and the Fed Meets on Interest Rates

July 27 – August 3, 2025

Trade and tariff deadlines will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week. At the time of this writing, President Trump—who is vacationing in Scotland—has clinched a deal with the European Union, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm to discuss an extension of the freeze on trade tariffs.

The U.S.-EU deal would impose a 15 percent tariff on all EU imports, while the EU commits to buying $750 billion in U.S. energy products and another $600 billion in unspecified investments in the U.S. Not everyone is happy in the EU: France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou blasted the deal, saying, “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission.” We would advise markets to keep a sharp eye on whether the deal holds together in the coming days.

Bessent’s meeting with Vice Premier He is likely to produce both a continued suspension of new trade tariffs and progress toward a possible summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

All this comes as August 1st—Trump’s ultimate trade deadline for all countries—looms. South Korea, Canada, Mexico (three of the U.S.’s five largest trading partners), and other nations are racing to cut deals with the U.S. before draconian tariffs are put in place Friday. This includes a 50 percent tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. Japan and the EU—the other two top-five trading partners aside from China—now have tentative deals in place.

Also this week, the United Nations will be holding a two-day conference spearheaded by France and Saudi Arabia on creating a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The meeting comes only a few days after France announced it is recognizing a Palestinian state—a move not replicated by the rest of the European Union.

In Asia, markets will be watching what happens in Japan’s parliament—the Diet—after last week’s Upper House elections tossed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party from power. Will Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition try to continue governing as a minority government, and will policy paralysis emerge, potentially impacting the Bank of Japan’s interest rate strategy?

Looking at the global economic radar screen, summer holidays are clearly taking place for most central bankers—very few speeches are scheduled (in fact, none are scheduled by any member of the European Central Bank—we can’t remember the last time we saw a week go by without at least one of them speaking somewhere). But central bank action will dominate markets this week nonetheless, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meeting on interest rates.

The Fed meetings are being particularly closely watched, with all the political fireworks being fired off by the White House toward Fed Chair Jay Powell, demanding he lower rates. Market consensus is that a rate cut is unlikely for now, but more voices are suggesting it may happen in September.

Looking at economic reports this week in the U.S., the big one is the jobs report on Friday, which will be preceded by the JOLTS and ADP reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The U.S. Q2 GDP print is out Wednesday, and June PCE is out Thursday. Also, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for July is out Tuesday. Finally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report is out Friday.

In Europe, the European Central Bank will publish its consumer expectations survey on Tuesday. This is followed by GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the broader Eurozone on Wednesday, with inflation prints for those same countries out Thursday. Employment reports will also be released throughout the week.

Moving to Asia, China releases July PMIs on Thursday, along with June industrial production and retail sales. Japan releases July consumer confidence and retail sales.

What will consume markets, of course, is the flood of corporate earnings this week—almost 40 percent of the S&P 500 will report. Most of Europe’s major corporations are also reporting this week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 27, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 28, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East, Syria.

· The United Nations High-Level International Conference on the Peacefull Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution will be held through July 29 in New York. The meeting is being co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia and comes days after France would formally recognize Palestine as a state.

· The Catholic Church holds the Jubilee of Youth through August 3 in Rome. More than 1 million young people are expected to attend.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump meets with UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer in Aberdeen, Scotland.

· US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Stockholm, Sweden to negotiate an extension of the trade tariff truce.

· The US House of Representatives are out for the August recess and return September 2. The US Senate is likely to go out of session for the August recess this coming weekend.

· A Colombian court is expected announce verdict against former president Alvaro Uribe. He was charged with bribery of witnesses and procedural fraud dealing with an investigation into his supposed ties to right-wing paramilitary groups.

· Today is Independence Day in Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Bank Lending (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Mexico Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Est

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Lawmakers from Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will hold a Diet meeting to review a recent election loss, which may influence the prime minister's fate.

· ASEAN Environmental Officials will hold its 36th annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur through July 31.

· The World Artificial Intelligence Conference is being held through July 29 in Shanghai, China to discuss global AI governance.

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos delivers his State of the Nation Address.

· Monsoon season officially begins in India.

· The GIIAS motor show begins in South Tangerang, Indonesia. It is the largest automotive exhibition in Southeast Asia.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (July)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

· Malaysia PPI (June)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Georgia hosts the Agile Spirit 2025 military drills with NATO through August 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

· Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum, hosted by Afreximbank and the Grenada government, takes place in St George’s, the Caribbean island’s capital city.

· The Communications Regulators’ Association of Southern Africa holds its Consumer Committee meeting in DR Congo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the 2745 sanctions (arms embargo on the Central African Republic). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of international peace and security: UN Peace Operations.

· The 2025 Global Conference on Climate and Health will be held from July 31 through in Brasilia, Brazil. This Global Conference is co-organized by the Government of Brazil, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and the Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate and Health (ATACH), and will serve as the annual, in-person meeting of ATACH members.

· The Sixth World Conference of Speakers of Parliament begins in Geneva, Switzerland and runs through July 31. The event includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Iran and Israel.

· The IMF publishes its report on state of world economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins policy meetings on interest rates.

· USA Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (June)/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ Redbook (July/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/25)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Territory Day in the islands of Wallis and Futuna, celebrating when they became a French Overseas Territory in 1961.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q2

· Singapore Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with Jordan's King Abdullah II in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

· Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee decides on interest rates. A press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will be held at 2 p.m.

· The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision and releases its Monetary Policy Report. Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference in the afternoon.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Net Payrolls (June)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/25)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ GDP Sales Q2/ PCE Prices Q2/ Real Consumer Spending Q2/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (July/25)

· Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Fiscal Balance (June)

· Chile Unemployment Rate (June)

· Colombia Business Confidence (June)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in Singapore.

· Today is Independence Day in the Island nation of Vanuatu.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan begins meetings on interest rates.

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)

· Australia Inflation Rate Q2/ Monthly CPI Indicator (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q2/ CPI Q2/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q2

· China FDI (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· France GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Household Consumption (June)

· Germany Retail Sales (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)/ Economic Sentiment Index (July)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Sales (May)

· Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Consumer Confidence Final (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

· Greece PPI (June)

· Ireland Retail Sales (June)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem makes an address for the anniversary of Commander Fuad Shukr's killing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Annual African Finance Association Conference is held in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

· South Africa Budget Balance (June)

Thursday, July 31, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· New U.S. tariffs on several trade partners, including South Korea and Japan, will come into effect, barring new trade deals.

· NASA's SpaceX Crew-11 launches to the International Space Station (ISS).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Personal Income & Spending (June)/ Employment Cost Index Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/26)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/19)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July)/ Chicago PMI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/31)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/30)

· Canada GDP (May)

· Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan is tentatively scheduled to hold a post-election extraordinary Diet session to elect new heads of the upper house.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decisions and Quarterly Outlook Report

· Japan Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/26)/Consumer Confidence (July)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)

· Australia Building Permits (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Import Prices Q2/ Export Prices Q2/ Housing Credit (June)/ Private House Approvals (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Totality Dwelling Prices (July)

· China NBS Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ General PMI (July)

· Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Business Confidence Q2

· Thailand Industrial Production (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption & Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (May)/ PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

· India Government Budget Value (June)

· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

· Hungary PPI (June)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

· France Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (June)/ Tourism Revenues Q2/ Tourist Arrivals (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (July)

· Spain Current Account (May)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (July)

· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (June)

· Greece Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Ukraine Current Account (June)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (June)/ GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

Friday, August 1, 2025

Global

· Panama takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s 50 percent tariff on imported copper goes into effect.

· Today is Emancipation Day in Guyana.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Mexico Business Confidence (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Earnings (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Weekly Hours (July)/ Government Payrolls (July)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (July)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (July)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/01)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/01)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Peru Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence/ Building Permits (June)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ PPI Q2/ Commodity Prices (July)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/18)/ Deposit Growth (July/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (July)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Switzerland's National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Romania PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (June)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ New Car Registrations (July)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Benin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the official start of the compliance period for EU rules on general-purpose AI models like ChatGPT and Google's Gemini.

· Today is Republic Day in North Macedonia.

· Cowes Week, the largest and longest-running international sailing regatta in the world, begins on the Isle of Wight, running until August 8.

The Global Week Ahead

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead