The Global Week Ahead

Trump Threatens Greater Sanctions on Russia While Sending An Envoy to Talk With Putin – and Nuclear Subs Off Russia’s Coast, The Tariff Wars Intensify for Some Countries, and the Bank of England Decides on Rates

August 3 - 10, 2025

It is summer holiday time in most northern hemisphere countries, with heads of state and parliaments out for most of the month of August, getting some rest and relaxation.   But there is still plenty going on geopolitically – perhaps the most important being President Trump’s ratcheting up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to sit down and start negotiating a peace treaty with Ukraine.  Trump has at one point given Putin until Thursday to agree to talks or the US will consider massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil exports.

Additionally, last week, Trump announced he was sending two nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” in response to remarks from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.  Medvedev holds the mostly ceremonial post of Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council – an institution with no power or decision-making ability – had said on a Telegram posting that "If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path” and that Trump should remember “how dangerous the fabled ‘Dead Hand” can be” – a reference to a secret Russian command system designed to launch nuclear missiles if the Russian leadership is killed by an enemy strike.  Medvedev is known for his highly provocative tweets toward the West, which tend to get more threatening and wacky as the evening progresses (if you get what we mean).

The other big geopolitical event of the week is President Trump’s tough new tariffs on Brazil, Switzerland, India, Canada, and other nations that have not successfully completed negotiations with the US going into effect.  And the other 10-15 percent tariffs on those major trading partners that have cut a deal with the US are expected to go into effect, too.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, aside from the trade tariffs and the prospect of new deals being announced, the big event of the week is the Bank of England deciding on interest rates on Thursday.  There are very few central banker speeches this week (perhaps everyone is saving their voices for speeches at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium August 22-24). 

 The major economic reports in the US this week include factory orders on Monday and services ISM and trade balance data on Tuesday.  Also coming out are nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs due Thursday.

 Turning to Asia, China’s trade balance is published on Thursday, and inflation figures on Friday.  Japan reports wage growth on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday.

And in Europe, Germany releases inflation figures, GDP growth, and factory order figures on Wednesday, while Switzerland releases its CPI on Monday.   Europe will also see a slew of corporate earnings reports this week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 3, 2025

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting (virtual) is held.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos begins a state visit in India.

·       China and Russia begin Joint Sea-2025 naval exercise off the coast of Vladivostok in the Sea of Japan through Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian concludes a two-day visit to Pakistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is in recess for the month of August.  They return on September 2.

·       Today is Natal Day in Canada, which honors the province of Nova Scotia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (June)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

·       USA Factory Orders (June)/ Total Vehicle Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will hold a Diet is expected to meet to discuss the recent U.S.-Japan trade deal, which may spur new trade demands from Tokyo.

·       South Korea will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's Digital and Artificial Intelligence Ministerial Meeting through August 6.

·       The Thailand-Cambodia General Border Committee will meet in Malaysia through August 7 in an effort to further solidify a peace treaty.

·       Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will visit Egypt and Angola through August 9.

·       Today is Cooks Island Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is on summer recess and returns August 22.  Meanwhile, the UK Parliament is in recess until September 1, the French Parliament is in recess until September 1, and the German Bundestag (Parliament) is in recess until September 9, .

·       Today is the Summer Bank Holiday in Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania PPI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (July)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

·       France New Car Registrations (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog will begin a three-day visit to the Baltic countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (June)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Founder’s Day in Ghana, honoring Dr. Kwame Nkumak who was the country’s first president.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Global

·       The Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries will take place in Awaza, Turkmenistan through August 8.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff is expected to arrive in Moscow for talks with senior Russian officials seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August/02)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services PMI (July)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil & Gasoline Stock Change (August/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

·       Colombia Exports (June)/ PPI (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will hold a short Diet session today, during which the ruling party's right wing may table a vote to seek Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ouster.

·       The Ketagalan Forum on Indo-Pacific Security begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)/ Household Spending (June)          

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (July)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ Vehicle Sales (July)

·       France Industrial Production (June)/ Budget Balance (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Spain Industrial Production (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Serbia PPI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana’s President John Mahama hosts African political leaders and policymakers at the Africa Health Sovereignty Summit in Accra.

·       Today is Independence Day in Burkina Faso.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (July)

Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1540 Committee (the UN Security Council committee focused on preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The new U.S. 40% tariff on Brazilian goods goes into effect at midnight. which compounds the current 10% duty, goes into force. Also, going into force will be of higher custom duties on EU, Switzerland, Thailand, and Vietnam.

·       Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez Morales gives press conference about waterway's future as BlackRock seeks to secure the purchase of two ports on either end of the canal.

·       Today is Independence Day in Bolivia, a national holiday.

·       Today is Independence Day in Jamaica.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the U.S and Global Economy at A Central Bank Perspective on the Evolving Global Landscape Conference (virtual) hosted by the Reserve Bank of Boston.  Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins will also speak.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/01)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/01)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.

·       Philippine senators are set to convene to decide whether to proceed with the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, a week after the country's top court dismissed a previous impeachment attempt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q2/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Labour Costs Index Q2/ Participation Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (July)/ Ai Group Construction Index (July)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (July)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       The Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (July/25)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the earliest deadline given by President Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin to respond to demands for a peace deal to end the Ukraine War.

·       Poland's president-elect, Karol Nawrocki,  officially takes office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)

·       Germany Factory Orders (June)/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Retail Sales (June)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls / HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        The U.S.-Africa Energy Forum will take place in Houston, Texas, through August 7.

·       Today is the deadline for banks, securities dealers, and investors to submit proposals for raising $500 million to finance South Africa’s 2025-26 fiscal year plans.

·       The African Development Bank and the Central African Republic’s government inaugurate new water and sanitation facilities in Bangui.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS).

·       The 12th annual The World Games, a quadrennial international multi-sport event featuring events not contested at the Olympic Games, begins in Chengdu, capital of the Sichuan province in China and runs through, August 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Approximately 70 unions will join together to protest against Argentine President Javier Milei’s economic reform policy. Widespread travel disruptions are expected.

·       The US Federal Communications Commission holds an open meeting that will include discussion of space.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic's takes part in a virtual fireside chat during a session with the Florida Institute of CFOs.

·       Brazil PPI (June)/ Car Production (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/02)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August)/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/06)/ Used Car Prices (July)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (July)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai International Semiconductor Tech & Application Innovation Expo begins and runs through August 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (June)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/02)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

·       Australia RBA Connolly Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Private House Approvals

·       Philippines Industrial Production (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (June)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (June)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)/ Treasury Cash Balance (July)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (July)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Ivory Coast.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Friday, August 8, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to speak at a Mississippi Delta event.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (July)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Wages (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/08)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Prominent Hong Kong democracy activist Joshua Wong once again faces trial, after he was charged in June for allegedly conspiring to collude with foreign forces. Wong, who was already sentenced last November to four years and eight months in prison for conspiracy to subvert state power, could see his prison time increase by anywhere from three years to a life sentence as a result of the new national security charge.

·       The World Robot Conference takes place in Beijing, China.  More than 1,500 exhibits, 200 companies and more than 50 makers of humanoid robots will be on display.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (June)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q2

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       China Current Account Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (July)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Greece Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (June)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the At the Kansas Bankers Association (KBA) CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Singapore National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference will take place in Bangui.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.