Recommended Weekend Reads

Mexico’s Oil Giant is at a Crossroads, Can Iran Rebuild its Nuclear Program, and Just How Desperate is their Leadership?, Why US House Prices Stayed Resilient Versus the Rest of the World,  and America’s Population Crash

August 8 - 11, 2025

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

The Americas 

• Pemex Is at a Crossroads        Americas Quarterly

  Mexico’s government announced a deal to support the deteriorating finances of the state-owned oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos SA (Pemex). By issuing instruments called pre-capitalized notes, the Sheinbaum administration hopes to stabilize the financial performance of a company that has been reporting losses for at least the last 10 years. However, Pemex is besieged not only by mounting financial liabilities but also by a series of issues that compromise its future and, to some extent, its current operations.

• Assessing the Impact of China-Russia Coordination in the Media and Information Space   Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Since the announcement between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping of a “no limits partnership” on the eve of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, concerns have swirled over the potential for a new axis of revisionist authoritarian powers. Spearheaded by Moscow and Beijing, such an alliance could not only threaten the Eurasian landmass but reach across oceans to challenge the United States in the Western Hemisphere. However, the full implications and scope of the China-Russia partnership, particularly as it may pertain to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The CSIS Americas Program designed a novel tabletop exercise to better understand the consequences.  The findings found that when given the opportunity to coordinate, China and Russia eagerly did so and were able to secure a favorable outcome to the initial crisis. However, on the subsequent game turn, the United States, which had invested in building more long-term influence in the region, nevertheless secured its preferred policy outcome in both iterations of the game  This suggests that U.S. influence in LAC appears to remain sizeable, but closer China-Russia cooperation should be accorded more gravity than it currently receives in policy discussions.

Iran’s Future

• Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuild?   The Center for Strategic and International Studies

  In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, “Operation Midnight Hammer,” policymakers and experts launched into a heated debate not only about the physical damage of the strikes but also about their impact on Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions. Recent satellite imagery allows us to have a more realistic picture of the extent of the damage from the Israeli and U.S. strikes. It also provides insights into Iran’s initial efforts to rebuild its nuclear program and can help identify potential pathways for developing a covert nuclear weapons program, including establishing a third site to process its existing stockpile of 400 kilograms (kg) of highly enriched uranium (HEU). We determined that the U.S. and Israeli strikes inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear program by destroying key infrastructure and human capital. Israel’s broader campaign against Iran also targeted military leaders, Iranian missiles, and defense industrial base targets. The precision of these operations revealed a deep penetration of intelligence, particularly by Mossad, into Iran’s nuclear program. The strikes did not, however, completely eliminate the nuclear program, with some infrastructure remaining intact, and the status of the HEU stockpile remains unknown. But whether or not Iran rebuilds its nuclear program is ultimately a political decision and will depend on three sets of factors: decision-making in Tehran, diplomacy with the United States, and Israel.

• Iran’s Dangerous Desperation: What Comes After the 12-Day War     Suzanne Maloney/Foreign Affairs

  As the writer James Baldwin once remarked, “The most dangerous creation of any society is the man who has nothing to lose.” That description might now apply to the men who preside over the ruins of Iran’s revolutionary system. With their proxy network degraded, their air defenses demolished, and their great-power alignments exposed as hollow, the debilitated guardians of the Islamic Republic require new tools to keep the wolves at bay. It is difficult to predict with confidence how factional dynamics will evolve in the aftermath of the regime’s humbling; further surprises may be in store. But there can be little doubt that the most powerful set of players in Tehran will seek to reconstitute the remnants of its nuclear program and reassert the regime’s dominance over Iranian society.

U.S. Economics and Demographic Changes

• Why U.S. House Prices Stayed Resilient While Prices Fell in Other Countries    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  Following decades of low and stable inflation, the period from 2021 to 2024 marked a dramatic global surge in inflation and an unprecedented cycle of monetary tightening. This recent monetary tightening cycle created a puzzle: Why did housing markets across developed countries respond so differently to the same global pressures?  For example, during the 2020-21 expansion, the U.S. and Canada experienced house price appreciation of more than 25% while Sweden recorded increases approximately half as large. (See the first figure.) But when central banks began aggressive tightening in 2022, a striking divergence emerged. The U.S. housing market showed remarkable resilience, with only moderate price adjustments despite Federal Reserve rate hikes that pushed mortgage rates from 2.8% to 6.8%. In stark contrast, Sweden and Canada experienced sharp corrections, with Swedish prices falling substantially below their 2019 baseline levels.

• Sprinters, Marathoners & Skeptics on the Future of AI & Power   War on the Rocks

  Will AI eat the world and America’s defense budget? I think of those who toil at the intersection of AI and national security as being divided into three camps: Sprinters hold the most aggressive assumptions and believe profound disruption via artificial general intelligence is imminent; marathoners believe the technology will diffuse selectively, sector-by-sector; and skeptics draw analogies to the dot-com bubble.  America’s near-term AI strategy should align with one of these three approaches. If the sprinter scenario holds, the United States should go all-out to rapidly acquire artificial general intelligence — defined here as human-level intelligence. If the skeptics are right, however, then the United States should do virtually the opposite and avoid overbuilding and overextension. If the marathoners are most correct, then the United States will conduct a complicated, long-term technological competition with a country four times its population.

• Consumer Inflation Expectations Across Surveys and over Time   Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

  Different survey-based measures of consumer inflation expectations have diverged in recent months. This Economic Commentary compares these measures and the survey questions underlying them. Our analysis suggests that the divergences across survey-based measures of inflation expectations can be attributed to various features and sample characteristics specific to each survey.

• Changes in Milestones of Adulthood     U.S. Census Bureau

  ABSTRACT: This study uses nationally representative data from 2005 and 2023 to examine changes in young adults’ (ages 25-34 years old) experiences reaching five milestones of adulthood: living away from their parents, completing their education, labor force participation, marrying, and living with a child. Changes are considered for individual milestones, as well as for combinations of milestones. The types and combinations of milestones young adults experience have seen major shifts in the past several decades, with growth in the shares experiencing economic markers, and reductions in those who experience family formation events. between 2005 and 2023, the fraction of Americans aged 25–34 who completed their education rose from 74% to 83%, but the percentage of “ever married” fell from 62% to 44%, and the percentage with “a child in the household” fell from 55% to 39%.

• America’s Fertility Crash Reaches A New Low   The Economist

  In recent years, birth rates have dropped only slightly in places where they have long been low. Four of the five least fertile states in 2014, including Connecticut and Massachusetts, have seen their rates decrease by less than the national average. It is in states that have been historically the most fertile where the fall has been precipitous; Alaska, North Dakota and Utah have seen some of the steepest declines. All told, states that had above average fertility rates in 2014 are responsible for more than 80% of the collapse in American birth rates over the past decade.

• As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data   Peterson Institute for International Economics

  US population growth has slowed sharply in the last year and a half, as the immigration surge of the early 2020s has ended and the population continues to age. Fewer jobs are needed to keep up with the growth of the labor force, and growth rates of output and consumption will fall even if per capita output and consumption hold steady. The total US population is growing at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent, down from 1 percent in late 2023. With slower population growth, any given level of monthly payroll growth, consumption growth, or output growth reflects a stronger economy than it did a year ago. Population growth is not only slowing; it has also become more volatile and harder to estimate. It is likely that current population estimates for 2025 that statistical agencies are incorporating into economic data are too high and will be revised downward; current population estimates imply much higher immigration in 2025 than is likely under current administration policy. Economic data will need to be reinterpreted and revised in line with future adjustments to population estimates.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The White House Releases Digital Financial Technology Report, Fed Governor Kugler Steps Down, the SEC Takes a Road Trip While the Rest of Washington Goes on Vacation

August 4 - 8, 2025

Congress is gone until early September, and lawyers, lobbyists, and public affairs experts are streaming out of the Capital for vacation.  There is not a lot going on this week in the financial regulatory space other than Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaking at the Kansas Bankers Association.

But last week ended up being a blockbuster of regulatory activity before vacations started.  First, the White House released its long-awaited report “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology.”  The report is chock-full of orders for the SEC and CFTC to begin the process of further refining the crypto regulatory world and recommendations for Congress to move on legislation.  

The report came on the heels of a major speech by SEC Chair Paul Akins launching a new initiative at the SEC seeking to update the financial markets and its structure.  Dubbed “Project Crypto” the overall will touch all aspects of the financial markets the SEC regulates.

But we also saw at the CFTC another setback for Chair-nominee Brian Quintenz’s confirmation – this time being the White House asking the Senate Agriculture Committee to hold up on a committee confirmation vote for unexplained reasons.   A variety of wild reasons are being pointed to being the cause ranging from the Winklevoss twins complaining about Quintenz to President Trump to forces inside leading emails putting Quintenz in a bad light (the best read-out of the situation can be found in July 31 edition of Capitol Account – still by the far the best in-depth regulatory source you can find out there.). Whatever the reason, Quintenz is not likely going to get confirmed until late September or sometime in October at the earliest.

Also last week, Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler announced her intention to step down from the Fed five months early.  This gives President Trump the opportunity to put one more friendly vote on the Fed.  What we are waiting for is to see if another Fed Governor steps down soon, too.  We have reason to believe another has raised his hand inside the Fed to Chair Jay Powell.  When that resignation comes, we do not know.  But it is coming.

As we said above, there really is not much going on this week in Washington, as you can see below.  We hope you have a great week.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

·       The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 1.

House of Representatives

·       The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

Federal Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Wednesday, August 6, 2:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the U.S and Global Economy at A Central Bank Perspective on the Evolving Global Landscape Conference (virtual).  Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins will also speak.

·       Thursday, August 7, 10:00 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic's takes part in a virtual fireside chat during a session with the Florida Institute of CFOs.

·       Saturday, August 9, 12:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Kansas Bankers Association (KBA) CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       August 4 – December 5 – The SEC’s Crypto Task Force begins holding regional roundtables around the country to hear from representatives of crypto-related projects that have 10 or fewer employees and are less than two years old.

·       Thursday, August 7, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Threatens Greater Sanctions on Russia While Sending An Envoy to Talk With Putin – and Nuclear Subs Off Russia’s Coast, The Tariff Wars Intensify for Some Countries, and the Bank of England Decides on Rates

August 3 - 10, 2025

It is summer holiday time in most northern hemisphere countries, with heads of state and parliaments out for most of the month of August, getting some rest and relaxation.   But there is still plenty going on geopolitically – perhaps the most important being President Trump’s ratcheting up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to sit down and start negotiating a peace treaty with Ukraine.  Trump has at one point given Putin until Thursday to agree to talks or the US will consider massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil exports.

Additionally, last week, Trump announced he was sending two nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” in response to remarks from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.  Medvedev holds the mostly ceremonial post of Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council – an institution with no power or decision-making ability – had said on a Telegram posting that "If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path” and that Trump should remember “how dangerous the fabled ‘Dead Hand” can be” – a reference to a secret Russian command system designed to launch nuclear missiles if the Russian leadership is killed by an enemy strike.  Medvedev is known for his highly provocative tweets toward the West, which tend to get more threatening and wacky as the evening progresses (if you get what we mean).

The other big geopolitical event of the week is President Trump’s tough new tariffs on Brazil, Switzerland, India, Canada, and other nations that have not successfully completed negotiations with the US going into effect.  And the other 10-15 percent tariffs on those major trading partners that have cut a deal with the US are expected to go into effect, too.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, aside from the trade tariffs and the prospect of new deals being announced, the big event of the week is the Bank of England deciding on interest rates on Thursday.  There are very few central banker speeches this week (perhaps everyone is saving their voices for speeches at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium August 22-24). 

 The major economic reports in the US this week include factory orders on Monday and services ISM and trade balance data on Tuesday.  Also coming out are nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs due Thursday.

 Turning to Asia, China’s trade balance is published on Thursday, and inflation figures on Friday.  Japan reports wage growth on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday.

And in Europe, Germany releases inflation figures, GDP growth, and factory order figures on Wednesday, while Switzerland releases its CPI on Monday.   Europe will also see a slew of corporate earnings reports this week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 3, 2025

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting (virtual) is held.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos begins a state visit in India.

·       China and Russia begin Joint Sea-2025 naval exercise off the coast of Vladivostok in the Sea of Japan through Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian concludes a two-day visit to Pakistan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Congress is in recess for the month of August.  They return on September 2.

·       Today is Natal Day in Canada, which honors the province of Nova Scotia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (June)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)

·       USA Factory Orders (June)/ Total Vehicle Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will hold a Diet is expected to meet to discuss the recent U.S.-Japan trade deal, which may spur new trade demands from Tokyo.

·       South Korea will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's Digital and Artificial Intelligence Ministerial Meeting through August 6.

·       The Thailand-Cambodia General Border Committee will meet in Malaysia through August 7 in an effort to further solidify a peace treaty.

·       Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will visit Egypt and Angola through August 9.

·       Today is Cooks Island Constitution Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Parliament is on summer recess and returns August 22.  Meanwhile, the UK Parliament is in recess until September 1, the French Parliament is in recess until September 1, and the German Bundestag (Parliament) is in recess until September 9, .

·       Today is the Summer Bank Holiday in Scotland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Romania PPI (June)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (July)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)

·       France New Car Registrations (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli President Isaac Herzog will begin a three-day visit to the Baltic countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan PPI (June)

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Founder’s Day in Ghana, honoring Dr. Kwame Nkumak who was the country’s first president.

·        

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)

Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Global

·       The Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries will take place in Awaza, Turkmenistan through August 8.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff is expected to arrive in Moscow for talks with senior Russian officials seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August/02)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services PMI (July)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil & Gasoline Stock Change (August/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)

·       Colombia Exports (June)/ PPI (July)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan will hold a short Diet session today, during which the ruling party's right wing may table a vote to seek Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ouster.

·       The Ketagalan Forum on Indo-Pacific Security begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)/ Household Spending (June)          

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (July)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ Vehicle Sales (July)

·       France Industrial Production (June)/ Budget Balance (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Spain Industrial Production (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Serbia PPI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Ghana’s President John Mahama hosts African political leaders and policymakers at the Africa Health Sovereignty Summit in Accra.

·       Today is Independence Day in Burkina Faso.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (July)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (July)

Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Global

The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1540 Committee (the UN Security Council committee focused on preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The new U.S. 40% tariff on Brazilian goods goes into effect at midnight. which compounds the current 10% duty, goes into force. Also, going into force will be of higher custom duties on EU, Switzerland, Thailand, and Vietnam.

·       Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez Morales gives press conference about waterway's future as BlackRock seeks to secure the purchase of two ports on either end of the canal.

·       Today is Independence Day in Bolivia, a national holiday.

·       Today is Independence Day in Jamaica.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the U.S and Global Economy at A Central Bank Perspective on the Evolving Global Landscape Conference (virtual) hosted by the Reserve Bank of Boston.  Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins will also speak.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/01)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/01)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)

·       Brazil Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 80th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.

·       Philippine senators are set to convene to decide whether to proceed with the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, a week after the country's top court dismissed a previous impeachment attempt.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q2/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Labour Costs Index Q2/ Participation Rate Q2

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (July)/ Ai Group Construction Index (July)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (July)

·       Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       The Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (July/25)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the earliest deadline given by President Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin to respond to demands for a peace deal to end the Ukraine War.

·       Poland's president-elect, Karol Nawrocki,  officially takes office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)

·       Germany Factory Orders (June)/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Romania Retail Sales (June)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       France Private Non-Farm Payrolls / HCOB Construction PMI (July)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (June)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (July)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·        The U.S.-Africa Energy Forum will take place in Houston, Texas, through August 7.

·       Today is the deadline for banks, securities dealers, and investors to submit proposals for raising $500 million to finance South Africa’s 2025-26 fiscal year plans.

·       The African Development Bank and the Central African Republic’s government inaugurate new water and sanitation facilities in Bangui.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 7, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS).

·       The 12th annual The World Games, a quadrennial international multi-sport event featuring events not contested at the Olympic Games, begins in Chengdu, capital of the Sichuan province in China and runs through, August 17.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Approximately 70 unions will join together to protest against Argentine President Javier Milei’s economic reform policy. Widespread travel disruptions are expected.

·       The US Federal Communications Commission holds an open meeting that will include discussion of space.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic's takes part in a virtual fireside chat during a session with the Florida Institute of CFOs.

·       Brazil PPI (June)/ Car Production (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/02)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August)/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/06)/ Used Car Prices (July)

·       Canada Ivey PMI s.a (July)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shanghai International Semiconductor Tech & Application Innovation Expo begins and runs through August 9.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (June)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/02)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

·       Australia RBA Connolly Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Private House Approvals

·       Philippines Industrial Production (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (June)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (June)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)/ Treasury Cash Balance (July)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Hungary Budget Balance (July)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in the Ivory Coast.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

Friday, August 8, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to speak at a Mississippi Delta event.

·       Chile Inflation Rate (July)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Wages (July)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/08)

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Prominent Hong Kong democracy activist Joshua Wong once again faces trial, after he was charged in June for allegedly conspiring to collude with foreign forces. Wong, who was already sentenced last November to four years and eight months in prison for conspiracy to subvert state power, could see his prison time increase by anywhere from three years to a life sentence as a result of the new national security charge.

·       The World Robot Conference takes place in Beijing, China.  More than 1,500 exhibits, 200 companies and more than 50 makers of humanoid robots will be on display.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Household Spending (June)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (July)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (June)

·       Kazakhstan Current Account Q2

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       China Current Account Q2

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (July)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Greece Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (June)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (July)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)

Saturday, August 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the At the Kansas Bankers Association (KBA) CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Singapore National Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference will take place in Bangui.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Trump Trade Wars Bring Major Shifts in US Chip Policy, Escalating Risk of Conflict on the Moon, 5 Facts About Global Demographic Changes by 2100, and What’s Going on with the Grid?

August 1 - 3, 2025

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well.  We hope you have a great weekend.

Trade Wars & Semiconductors 

• US alters tech policy, puts chips on the table   Jennifer Lee & Fritz Lodge/The Strategist

  A shift is underway in the Trump administration’s approach to tech policy.  Nvidia said on 14 July that the US government would soon grant it licenses to resume exports of its H20 chips to China. AMD is expecting the same for its MI308 chips. This may appear surprising after multiple statements from Trump administration officials that controls on the export to China of higher-end AI chips, such as the H20, were off the table.  This move doesn’t change the broader bipartisan consensus behind restricting China’s access to strategic tech, but rather fits into a pattern of recent decisions showing that tech export controls—previously viewed as a non-negotiable issue of US national security—can now be used as bargaining chips in trade talks with China.  This shift exacerbates uncertainty for domestic and international tech firms and will encourage Beijing to push for further loosening of controls in future negotiations.
  

• How Does Semiconductor Trade Work?    Chris Miller/American Enterprise Institute

  Trade data on semiconductors is skewed due to the underreporting of imported semiconductors found in finished products like cars and phones. Any tariffs on semiconductors must carefully consider the structure of supply chains to avoid unintended consequences.  Much of the $40 billion of chips the US imports are actually made in the US, packaged abroad, and reimported, so tariffs would senselessly penalize domestic manufacturers. Since the US lacks packaging capacity, higher tariffs would raise costs and hurt competitiveness in key industries.  The US should focus tariffs on Chinese-made chips while striking sectoral trade deals with allies that commit both sides to zero tariffs, reducing non-tariff barriers, and continuing to invest in diversified supply chains.

Demographics

• 5 facts about how the world’s population is expected to change by 2100   Pew Research Center

  Here are five facts about how the world’s population is projected to change in the coming decades, based on a Pew Research Center analysis of the UN’s World Population Prospects. The latest data is from 2023, so the numbers for 2024 and beyond are projections.

1. Global population growth is expected to slow between now and 2100 (the population is expected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2084).

2. The world’s three most populous countries in 2025 are expected to have radically different trajectories in the coming decades (India will grow, China has begun to shrink and fall sharply, and the US is expected to grow slowly and steadily).

3. Five countries are expected to contribute more than 60% of the world’s population growth by 2100 (The Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Tanzania).

4. The world’s population is expected to get older (the median age is projected to rise to 42 by 2100, up from 31 today and 22 in 1950).

5. Africa is currently the world’s youngest region, and it’s projected to stay that way in 2100.

• Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries?    Melissa Schettini Kearney & Phillip Levine/NBER

  This paper considers why fertility has fallen to historically low levels in virtually all high-income countries. Using cohort data, we document rising childlessness at all observed ages and falling completed fertility. This cohort perspective underscores the need to explain long-run shifts in fertility behavior. We review existing research and conclude that period-based explanations focused on short-term changes in income or prices cannot explain the widespread decline. Instead, the evidence points to a broad reordering of adult priorities with parenthood occupying a diminished role. We refer to this phenomenon as “shifting priorities” and propose that it likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms, evolving economic opportunities and constraints, and broader social and cultural forces. We review emerging evidence on all these factors. We conclude the paper with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications.

• Depopulation Globally and in the Asia-Pacific: The Shape of Things to Come    Nicholas Eberstadt/Fertility and Sterility

  Abstract: This article addresses the prospect of global depopulation and its far-reaching implications. It argues that the advent of world population decline may come sooner than commonly anticipated, due to remarkable drops in birth rates underway in low-income regions as well as more developed locales. Notwithstanding uncertainties about the precise level of planetary fertility (due mainly to limited statistical capabilities in Africa), it is clear that overall childbearing patterns for our species are at most only slightly above the replacement level today—and might already actually have fallen below that significant threshold. Prolonged sub-replacement fertility will have far-reaching social, economic, and political ramifications. The following pages attempt to describe some of them, and to offer an introductory exploration of the new questions that could face problem-solvers in the future.

• Africa’s future demographic dividend matters to Europe today    ISS/African Futures

  Africa’s demographic surge offers Europe a chance to rethink labor, migration and global partnerships through a lens of long-term interdependence.  Europe’s population is shrinking, while Africa’s is growing. By 2050, Africa will be home to one in four people globally.  Similarly, the EU’s labor force is shrinking and aging, while Africa’s is growing rapidly and becoming younger. By 2050, more than 60% of Africa’s people will be of working age. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the labor force will more than double. It will have increased from 505 million in 2023 to 1,058 million people, while Europe’s labor force will have declined from 370 million to 342 million.

The Growing Electrical Supply Challenge 

• AI Demand Drives Record Electricity Supply Costs In Largest US Market   Financial Times

  The cost of providing electricity in America’s largest power market will hit a record high owing to soaring demand from artificial intelligence data centers and delays in building new power plants, raising energy prices for consumers.  Grid operator PJM said it procured energy supplies for $329.17 per megawatt day, a 22% increase compared with the previous year. The organization will pay power producers $16.1bn to meet its energy needs from June 2026 to May 2027, a 10% increase compared with the previous year. The operator said it expected a 1-5% rise for customers in their energy bills, depending on how utilities and states passed on costs. PJM sets prices at an annual capacity auction where power suppliers bid to provide the region’s projected demand. Earlier this year, PJM and some state governments took steps to try to keep power prices lower after last year’s capacity auction delivered a $269.92 per MW-day price — a more than 800% increase from 2023.

• Power Check: Watt’s Going On With The Grid?   Bank of America Institute

  The US grid is facing an extended period of load growth. And while the drivers of this growth have changed over time, demand is largely due to 1) building electrification; 2) data centers; 3) industrial demand; and 4) electric vehicle (EV) adoption. If load growth forecasts continue to rise, utilities will need to invest to meet required reserve margins and increase spending on both power generation and transmission & distribution capacity. The good news? Deregulation and accelerated permitting may further help get more projects off the starting line, according to BofA Global Research.

• Are Small Modular Reactors Worthy of the Hype?   Oilprice.com

  Nuclear energy is experiencing a political and technical renaissance. Around the world, nuclear fission is gaining traction as a critical piece of the puzzle for maintaining energy security while also slashing greenhouse gas emissions. Much of the renewed excitement over nuclear power comes from advances in nuclear technologies, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs), which are supposed to make nuclear capacity expansion cheaper, safer, and more efficient.  However, Even though there is excitement from investors and policymakers alike, getting SMR models approved is taking much longer than anticipated. Only one model has been approved in the United States, and it is not yet operational. But many, many more designs are waiting in the wings.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The White House Puts a Hold on Quintenz Confirmation Vote, NCUA Democrat Board Members Back On… and Then Back Off, and Housing Policy Moves into Focus

July 28 - August 1, 2025

It’s going to be a quiet week in Washington. The House of Representatives began its traditional August recess last week, and the Senate is expected to leave at the end of this week—though they may stick around longer at President Trump’s request to address the confirmation backlog. As you can see from the calendar below, things are winding down in D.C. as everyone heads off for much-needed summer vacations.

But as the Senate works to clear that nominee backlog, one name has been held back yet again: the Senate Agriculture Committee once more decided at the last minute not to bring up Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair nominee Brian Quintenz for a confirmation vote. Interestingly—and concerning for the future of Quintenz’s nomination—it was the White House that weighed in this morning, with no explanation, and asked Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-AR) to delay the vote. That means Quintenz won’t get a committee vote until at least September.

Meanwhile, a federal appeals court reinstated two Democratic members of the Federal Credit Union Administration who had been fired by President Trump. However, any hope of their return was short-lived: the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals issued an emergency order overruling the decision and blocking their reinstatement. This case is clearly headed to the Supreme Court, though it’s unclear when that will happen.

In another development, a federal appellate court on Friday struck down a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) order that would have required brokers to help fund the massive Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) database used by regulators. Championed by then-SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the plan was rejected by the court, which said the SEC had not “adequately justified its choices” or conducted a sufficient economic analysis.

In the Senate, a bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced legislation aimed at increasing private investment in affordable housing and other community development projects. Led by Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), the Community Investment and Prosperity Act will receive close scrutiny this fall.

Congress also received a notable report last Thursday from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on the potential impact of releasing mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae from government control. The report indicates that while returning the companies to public ownership would generate some budgetary savings, it would also result in costs—mainly because the federal government would no longer receive income from their earnings. You can read the report HERE.   Re-floating the two GSEs is a priority for President Trump and has gained traction on Capitol Hill in recent months, along with many supporters on Wall Street.

Below are the meetings and events of note happening in Washington this week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Tuesday, July 29, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will go into Executive Session to consider the ROAD to Housing Act 2025.  You can read about the legislation HERE.

• Wednesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Securities, Insurance, and Investment Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Guardrails and Growth: AI’s Role in Capital and Insurance Markets.”

House of Representatives

• The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to consider interest rates. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

 Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Thursday, July 31, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• Thursday, July 31, 12:00 p.m. – National Credit Union Administration Chair Kyle Hauptman speaks at the Women in Housing and Finance.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• Thursday, July 31, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC will hold a Consumer Protection and Older Adult Roundtable.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• Wednesday, July 30 – The Institute for International Finance holds its 2025 Tax Conference in New York.

• Thursday, July 31, 12:00 p.m. – National Credit Union Administration Chair Kyle Hauptman speaks at the Women in Housing and Finance.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• Tuesday, July 29, 7:30 a.m. – Axios holds a discussion on "Opening Doors: Expanding Pathways to Homeownership."

• Tuesday, July 29, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a virtual event entitled “Unpacking the consequences of the new US tax and budget legislation.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

Trade Deal and Tariff Deadlines Dominate the Geopolitical Week, Japan’s Diet Meets on the Future of Ruling Coalition, the UN Holds a Conference on a Two-State Solution, and the Fed Meets on Interest Rates

July 27 – August 3, 2025

Trade and tariff deadlines will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week. At the time of this writing, President Trump—who is vacationing in Scotland—has clinched a deal with the European Union, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm to discuss an extension of the freeze on trade tariffs.

The U.S.-EU deal would impose a 15 percent tariff on all EU imports, while the EU commits to buying $750 billion in U.S. energy products and another $600 billion in unspecified investments in the U.S. Not everyone is happy in the EU: France’s Prime Minister François Bayrou blasted the deal, saying, “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, brought together to affirm their common values and to defend their common interests, resigns itself to submission.”  We would advise markets to keep a sharp eye on whether the deal holds together in the coming days.

 Bessent’s meeting with Vice Premier He is likely to produce both a continued suspension of new trade tariffs and progress toward a possible summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

 All this comes as August 1st—Trump’s ultimate trade deadline for all countries—looms. South Korea, Canada, Mexico (three of the U.S.’s five largest trading partners), and other nations are racing to cut deals with the U.S. before draconian tariffs are put in place Friday. This includes a 50 percent tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. Japan and the EU—the other two top-five trading partners aside from China—now have tentative deals in place.

Also this week, the United Nations will be holding a two-day conference spearheaded by France and Saudi Arabia on creating a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. The meeting comes only a few days after France announced it is recognizing a Palestinian state—a move not replicated by the rest of the European Union.

In Asia, markets will be watching what happens in Japan’s parliament—the Diet—after last week’s Upper House elections tossed the ruling Liberal Democratic Party from power. Will Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition try to continue governing as a minority government, and will policy paralysis emerge, potentially impacting the Bank of Japan’s interest rate strategy?

 Looking at the global economic radar screen, summer holidays are clearly taking place for most central bankers—very few speeches are scheduled (in fact, none are scheduled by any member of the European Central Bank—we can’t remember the last time we saw a week go by without at least one of them speaking somewhere).  But central bank action will dominate markets this week nonetheless, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of Canada all meeting on interest rates.

The Fed meetings are being particularly closely watched, with all the political fireworks being fired off by the White House toward Fed Chair Jay Powell, demanding he lower rates. Market consensus is that a rate cut is unlikely for now, but more voices are suggesting it may happen in September.

Looking at economic reports this week in the U.S., the big one is the jobs report on Friday, which will be preceded by the JOLTS and ADP reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The U.S. Q2 GDP print is out Wednesday, and June PCE is out Thursday. Also, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for July is out Tuesday. Finally, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Report is out Friday.

In Europe, the European Central Bank will publish its consumer expectations survey on Tuesday. This is followed by GDP reports for Germany, France, Italy, and the broader Eurozone on Wednesday, with inflation prints for those same countries out Thursday. Employment reports will also be released throughout the week.

 Moving to Asia, China releases July PMIs on Thursday, along with June industrial production and retail sales. Japan releases July consumer confidence and retail sales.

 What will consume markets, of course, is the flood of corporate earnings this week—almost 40 percent of the S&P 500 will report. Most of Europe’s major corporations are also reporting this week.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 28, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East, Syria. 

·       The United Nations High-Level International Conference on the Peacefull Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution will be held through July 29 in New York.  The meeting is being co-hosted by France and Saudi Arabia and comes days after France would formally recognize Palestine as a state.

·       The Catholic Church holds the  Jubilee of Youth through August 3 in Rome.  More than 1 million young people are expected to attend.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump meets with UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer in Aberdeen, Scotland.

·       US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng meet in Stockholm, Sweden to negotiate an extension of the trade tariff truce.

·       The US House of Representatives are out for the August recess and return September 2. The US Senate is likely to go out of session for the August recess this coming weekend.

·        A Colombian court is expected announce verdict against former president Alvaro Uribe.  He was charged with bribery of witnesses and procedural fraud dealing with an investigation into his supposed ties to right-wing paramilitary groups.

·       Today is Independence Day in Peru.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Bank Lending (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (May)/ Wholesale Sales (June)

·       USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Treasury Refunding Financing Est

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Lawmakers from Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party will hold a Diet meeting to review a recent election loss, which may influence the prime minister's fate.

·       ASEAN Environmental Officials will hold its 36th annual meeting in Kuala Lumpur through July 31.

·       The World Artificial Intelligence Conference is being held through July 29 in Shanghai, China to discuss global AI governance.

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos delivers his State of the Nation Address.

·       Monsoon season officially begins in India.

·       The GIIAS motor show begins in South Tangerang, Indonesia.  It is the largest automotive exhibition in Southeast Asia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Malaysia PPI (June)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       India Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia hosts the Agile Spirit 2025 military drills with NATO through August 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (June)

·       Ireland GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum, hosted by Afreximbank and the Grenada government, takes place in St George’s, the Caribbean island’s capital city.

·       The Communications Regulators’ Association of Southern Africa holds its Consumer Committee meeting in DR Congo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Interest Rate Decision

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the 2745 sanctions (arms embargo on the Central African Republic). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold a briefing on Maintenance of international peace and security: UN Peace Operations.

· The 2025 Global Conference on Climate and Health will be held from July 31 through in Brasilia, Brazil. This Global Conference is co-organized by the Government of Brazil, the World Health Organization (WHO), the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and the Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate and Health (ATACH), and will serve as the annual, in-person meeting of ATACH members. 

·       The Sixth World Conference of Speakers of Parliament begins in Geneva, Switzerland and runs through July 31.  The event includes representatives from Ukraine, Russia, Iran and Israel.

·       The IMF publishes its report on state of world economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee begins policy meetings on interest rates.

·       USA Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (June)/ Wholesale Inventories (June)/ Redbook (July/26)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (May)/ House Price Index (May)/ JOLTs Job Openings (June)/ JOLTs Job Quits (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (July)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/25)

·       Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Territory Day in the islands of Wallis and Futuna, celebrating when they became a French Overseas Territory in 1961.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Indonesia Foreign Direct Investment Q2

·       Singapore Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ PPI (June)

·       Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with Jordan's King Abdullah II in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (June)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (June)/ M4 Money Supply (June)/ Net Lending to Individuals (June)

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (June)/ Jobseekers Total (June)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee decides on interest rates.  A press conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will be held at 2 p.m.

·       The Bank of Canada announces its interest rate decision and releases its Monetary Policy Report.  Governor Tiff Macklem holds a press conference in the afternoon.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Net Payrolls (June)

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/25)/ ADP Employment Change (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Treasury Refunding Announcement/ GDP Sales Q2/ PCE Prices Q2/ Real Consumer Spending Q2/ Pending Home Sales (June)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (July/25)

·       Mexico GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Fiscal Balance (June)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (June)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in Singapore.

·       Today is Independence Day in the Island nation of Vanuatu.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of Japan begins meetings on interest rates.

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (July)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ PPI (June)

·       Australia Inflation Rate Q2/ Monthly CPI Indicator (June)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q2/ CPI Q2/ RBA Weighted Median CPI Q2

·       China FDI (YTD) (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Household Consumption (June)

·       Germany Retail Sales (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (July)/ Economic Sentiment Index (July)

·       Turkey Unemployment Rate (June)/ Economic Confidence Index (July)/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Sales (May)

·       Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Economic Sentiment (July)/ Consumer Confidence Final (July)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Industrial Sentiment (July)/ Selling Price Expectations (July)/ Services Sentiment (July)

·       Greece PPI (June)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (June)

·       Russia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Business Confidence (July)/ Real Wage Growth (May)/ Retail Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem makes an address for the anniversary of Commander Fuad Shukr's killing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Annual African Finance Association Conference is held in Cape Town, South Africa.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

·       South Africa Budget Balance (June)

Thursday, July 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New U.S. tariffs on several trade partners, including South Korea and Japan, will come into effect, barring new trade deals. 

·       NASA's SpaceX Crew-11 launches to the International Space Station (ISS).

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (June)/ Nominal Budget Balance (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (July)/ Personal Income & Spending (June)/ Employment Cost Index Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (July/26)/ PCE Price Index (June)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/19)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (July)/ Chicago PMI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/31)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/30)

·       Canada GDP (May)

·       Chile Copper Production (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (June)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan is tentatively scheduled to hold a post-election extraordinary Diet session to elect new heads of the upper house.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decisions and Quarterly Outlook Report

·       Japan Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/26)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/26)/Consumer Confidence (July)/ Housing Starts (June)/ Construction Orders (June)

·       Australia Building Permits (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Import Prices Q2/ Export Prices Q2/ Housing Credit (June)/ Private House Approvals (June)/ Private Sector Credit (June)/ Totality Dwelling Prices (July)

·       China NBS Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ General PMI (July)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Business Confidence Q2

·       Thailand Industrial Production (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Private Consumption & Investment (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (June)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (May)/ PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

·       India Government Budget Value (June)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Import Prices (June)/ Unemployed Persons (July)/ Unemployment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (July)/ Bavaria CPI (July)/ Brandenburg CPI (July)/ Hesse CPI (July)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (July)/ Saxony CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)

·       Hungary PPI (June)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (June)

·       France Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (June)/ Tourism Revenues Q2/ Tourist Arrivals (June)/ MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (July)

·       Spain Current Account (May)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (July)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Greece Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)

·       Ukraine Current Account (June)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (June)/ GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ M3 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (June)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (July)

Friday, August 1, 2025

Global

·       Panama takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of August.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump’s 50 percent tariff on imported copper goes into effect.

·       Today is Emancipation Day in Guyana.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ Industrial Production (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (June)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Earnings (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Weekly Hours (July)/ Government Payrolls (July)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (July)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (July)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (July)/ Construction Spending (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (July)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions Final (July)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (August/01)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/01)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Peru Inflation Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence/ Building Permits (June)

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ PPI Q2/ Commodity Prices (July)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (June)/ Jobs/applications ratio (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Business Confidence (July)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (July/18)/ Deposit Growth (July/18)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/25)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (July)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Switzerland's National Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Romania PPI (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (July)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (June)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (June)

·       Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ New Car Registrations (July)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (July)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Flash (July)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Benin.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (July)

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (July)

Saturday, August 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the official start of the compliance period for EU rules on general-purpose AI models like ChatGPT and Google's Gemini.

·       Today is Republic Day in North Macedonia.

·       Cowes Week, the largest and longest-running international sailing regatta in the world, begins on the Isle of Wight, running until August 8. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 3, 2025

Global

·       The OPEC+ monthly meeting (virtual) is held.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos begins a state visit to India.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Fed Holds a Conference on Large Bank Capital Standards, Congress Passes the First-Ever Crypto Reg Bill and Tees Up More Legislation, And Will the SEC and CFTC Merge?

July 21 - 25, 2025

Washington is currently experiencing the hottest July in recorded history, peppered by what seems like almost daily massive thunderstorms. But neither beating sun nor driving rain is slowing down the financial regulatory world in the nation’s capital.  A lot is going on.

First, Congress has just passed, and President Trump signed into law, the first-ever major legislative cryptocurrency law, creating new rules for stablecoins.  It is a major victory for the crypto industry.  Additionally, the House passed on Thursday by a 294-1345 margin much broader crypto legislation, which would create a brand-new market structure for crypto.

This comes as news broke President Trump is preparing to sign an executive order soon allowing the $9 trillion US retirement market to invest in crypto as well as gold and private equity.  This would include 401(k) plans as well as pensions.

Congress was busy this past week on a number of other fronts of interest and concern to the markets.  We would first note first that the Chairman of the House Select Committee on China, Representative John Moolenaar (R-MI) and the Chair of the Senate Special Committee on Aging, Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) sent letters to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC0 and the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) demanding an urgent briefing on the risks posed to US investors by Chinese companies listed on US stock exchanges.  Their letter revives a debate in Congress to force the delisting of Chinese companies (which we would point out have a combined market capitalization of $1.1 trillion).  Our view is, barring a major, unseen negative turn in US-China relations, the delisting effort will peter out eventually.  But it is a serious pressure point and worth watching.

Meanwhile, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins made headlines on Thursday when he signaled his support for merging the SEC with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).  This is not a new idea – indeed, we remember 30+ years ago a raging debate over merging the two, which did not go well.  But these are different times as the Trump Administration is driving massive structural and budgetary changes to the federal government.   

Atkins also this past week pushed out the head of the Public Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), Erica Williams (who had been put there by the Biden Administration).  The move had long been expected and is seen as part of a likely consolidation of the PCAOB into the SEC in the near future.

Finally, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell continued to weather considerable criticism for the $1.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters.  In fact, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) said Thursday in a post on X that she is “criminally referring” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to the Justice Department to “investigate perjury” regarding the $2.5 billion renovation project. We do not think this will be taken up by Justice, but it shows how ugly the issue has become.  But something a relief valve may have emerged on Friday when the Associated Press reported the most expensive renovations were actually initially pushed for by three Trump appointees on the Commission of Fine Arts which advises the federal government on architecture. 

Looking at the week ahead, the Senate Agriculture Committee announced they will (finally) vote on the confirmation of CFTC Chair-nominee Brian Quintenz on Monday.  Quintenz then has then get a full confirmation vote by the full Senate.   Looking at the Senate calendar – which includes the Senate being out of session for all of August – this suggests to us Quintenz probably will not get that final confirmation vote until late September or sometime in October.  The Senate wheels move slowly, and the most precious commodity in the world may actually be finding time on the Senate floor schedule to get anything done.

And the big event of the week will be at the Federal Reserve, which is holding its “Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference.”   Fed Chair Powell and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will both speak.  The conference is a prelude to forthcoming major changes to bank capital standards, something big banks have been pushing hard for in recent years.

Below are the meetings and events happening this week in Washington of note:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, July 22, 9:45 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a markup to vote on the nominations of Joseph Barloon to be a deputy U.S. Trade Representative in the Geneva Office, and Brian Morrissey Jr., to be general counsel for the Treasury Department.

·       Tuesday, July 22, 10:15 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on the nominations of Jonathan McKernan to be a Treasury undersecretary for Domestic Finance.

·       Wednesday, July 23, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee will vote on the confirmation of CFTC Chair nominee Brian Quintenz as well as several nominees for the Department of Agriculture.

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, July 22, 10:00 a.m. and Wednesday, July 23, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing to markup various measures (17 measures in total).

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday, July 22, 8:30 a.m. – The Federal Reserve Board of Governors holds it "Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference."   Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell delivers opening remarks and at 1:00 p.m. Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Michelle Bowman delivers remarks.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Tuesday, July 22, 10:00 a.m. – Securities and Exchange Commission holds a meeting of the Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee to discuss matters relating to rules and regulations affecting small and emerging businesses and their investors under the federal securities laws.

·       Thursday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       Thursday, July 24, 10:00 a.m. – The National Credit Union Administration Board will hold a meeting.  The agenda includes A briefing on artificial intelligence; A briefing from the NCUA Ombudsman; and a briefing on the Central Liquidity Facility.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Thursday, July 22, 2:00 p.m. – The Justice Department's Antitrust Division; the Federal Trade Commission; the Commerce Department; and the Health and Human Services Department holds a virtual event, beginning at 2 p.m., on "Formulary and Benefit Practices and Regulatory Abuse Impacting Drug Competition."

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events 

Trade Associations

·       Tuesday, July 22, 5:00 p.m. – The American Bar Association holds its 2025 Antitrust Regional Reception.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Monday, July 21, 8:30 a.m. – The American Enterprise Institute holds a panel discussion entitled "International Tax Cooperation and Competition: A Reset."

·       Tuesday, July 22, 9:15 a.m. – The Brookings Institution's Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy, Purdue University's Business School, the Brandeis International Business School's Institute of Global Finance,  the University of Texas at Austin Public Affairs School, and the University of Chicago Public Policy School's Center for Municipal Finance hold the 14th annual Municipal Finance Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, July 22, 12:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion, beginning at 12 p.m., on "Litigation Update: FTC v. Meta."

·       Tuesday – Thursday, July 22 – 25 – The Center for Global Development holds its annual Bank Conference on Development Economics 2025, with the theme "Development in the Age of Populism." 

·       Wednesday, July 23, 8:00 a.m. – Axios holds a discussion on the impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" as well as what's next for the remainder of the year and heading into the 2026 midterm elections.  Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC), a member of the Senate Banking Committee, will speak.

·       Wednesday, July 23, 11:00 a.m. – The R Street Institute holds a virtual panel discussion entitled “Reconciliation Lookback: Farm Subsidy Policy and the Future of the Farm Bill.”  This will include a heavy focus on the impact on crop insurance and federal farm policy overall.

·       Wednesday, July 23, 1:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a virtual event entitled “Accelerating local climate investment amid federal uncertainty.”

·       Thursday, July 24, 11:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a rescheduled event entitled “The House Financial Services Committee Agenda: A Conversation with Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA). 

·       Thursday, July 24, 2:00 p.m. – The Cato Institute holds a forum on "Removing Barriers to Capital Formation."

·       Thursday, July 24, 3:00 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "The Past, Present, and Future of Credit Scores in Housing Finance."

Recommended Reading

• How Shadow Banking Reshapes the Optimal Mix of Regulation   Liberty Street Economics/Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  Decisions that are privately optimal often impose externalities on other agents, giving rise to regulations aimed at implementing socially optimal outcomes. In the banking industry, regulations are particularly heavy, plausibly reflecting a view by regulators that the relevant externalities could culminate in financial crises and destabilize the broader economy. Over time, the toolkit for regulating banks and bank-like institutions has expanded, as has banks’ restructuring of activities into shadow banking to lessen the regulatory burden. This post, based on our recent Staff Report, explores the optimal mix of prudential tools for bank regulators in a wide range of environments.

• The Dodd-Frank Act at 15: Has It Worked?       Paul Kupiec/American Enterprise Institute

  In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on July 15, AEI Scholar Pau Kupiec argued that “Judging the Dodd-Frank Act by its own preamble, the Act is a failure. Notwithstanding the many complex and intrusive provisions of the Act, the financial system experienced a systemic banking crisis in March 2023. Widespread bank runs were averted when the federal government was forced to take measures to bailout the banking system.”  Kupiec, who is the former Director of Research at the FDIC, goes on to say that “…the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) has little ability to detect and mitigate actual risk created by so-called systemically important financial institutions or unregulated markets.”

• Spotting Financial Crisis’s Early     MacroXX Substack

  Economists have long debated whether financial crises can be foreseen. While this question is not new, a notable study from March 2021 provides clear evidence that crises can often be predicted—typically triggered by rapid credit growth alongside sharp increases in asset prices.  Harvard researchers Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Sørensen showed that financial crises aren’t just freak accidents—they often build up in plain sight.  According to this study, financial crises can be forecasted by examining past credit growth in businesses and households using relatively simple models. 

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Recommended Weekend Reads

Is the US Going to be Hit With a New China Shock?, Looking at Russia’s Next Generation of Leaders, How the Global Economy Has Evaded Disaster, and Data Centers are Eating Capex

July 18 - 20, 2025

Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week that we found particularly interesting.  Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well.  Have a great weekend.

China 

• We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will be Worse     David Autor/Gordon Hansen, New York Times

  Autor and Handson warn the US faces a second “China Shock” that tariffs are ill-equipped to counter. According to an Australian analysis, btw 2003 and 2007, the US led China in 60 of 64 cutting-edge sectors; by 2023, China led the US in 57 of the 64.  The world’s largest and most innovative producers of EVs (BYD), EV batteries (CATL), drones (DJI) and solar wafers (LONGi) are all Chinese start-ups, none more than 30 years old. They attained commanding technological and price leadership not because President Xi Jinping decreed it, but because they emerged triumphant from the economic Darwinism that is Chinese industrial policy. The rest of the world is ill-prepared to compete with these apex predators. When U.S. policymakers deride China’s industrial policy, they are imagining something akin to the lumbering takeoff of Airbus or the lights going out on Solyndra. They should instead be gazing up at the nimble swarms of DJI drones buzzing over Ukraine.

• Why China’s Should Revalue the Renminbi – And Why It Can’t Easily Do So     Michael Pettis/Carnegie China

  In a recent piece for the Financial Times, Gerard Lyons, a British economist who sits on the board of the Bank of China (UK), argued that China’s currency, the renminbi, is undervalued, and that by encouraging it to appreciate, China would help raise its international profile. While many analysts have made similar arguments, it is not at all clear that a rising renminbi would indeed increase its international role. There are nonetheless very good economic reasons for China to revalue its currency, along with reasons why a serious revaluation is likely to be difficult. With its persistent excess production and under-consumption, a revalued renminbi would help correct some of the deep structural distortions in the Chinese economy by shifting the distribution of total domestic income from businesses to households.

• Is China’s Military Ready for War?    M. Taylor Fravel/Foreign Affairs

  A new wave of purges has engulfed the senior leadership of China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army. Since the 20th National Party Congress in October 2022, more than 20 senior PLA officers from all four services—the army, navy, air force, and rocket force—have disappeared from public view or been removed from their posts. The absences of other generals have also been reported, which could foreshadow additional purges.   The fact that these high-profile purges are occurring now is not lost on outside observers. In 2027, the PLA will celebrate the 100th anniversary of its founding. It is also the year by which Xi expects China’s armed forces to have made significant strides in their modernization. Finally, the year is noteworthy because, according to former CIA Director Bill Burns, Xi has instructed the PLA to be “ready by 2027 to conduct a successful invasion” of Taiwan. Xi’s instructions do not indicate that China will in fact invade Taiwan that year, but, as Burns put it, they serve as “a reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition.”  With such ambitious goals set for the PLA, the question then arises as to how this new wave of purges could affect the PLA’s readiness. 

• China’s Stealth Trade Surplus    Brad Setser/Council on Foreign Relations

  China’s trade surplus has soared in the last five years. That basic statement maps to a host of well-known and easily verified realities. China now runs, for example, a large trade surplus in autos, when it ran a deficit as recently as five years ago. Net vehicle exports will top 6 million vehicles this year, net passenger car exports will easily top 5 million cars. It dominates renewables manufacturing (so much so that President Trump decided to essentially give up and take the U.S. back to the age of fossil fuels). China's export volume growth has consistently exceeded global trade growth. Moreover, it maps to standard economic theory: a large real estate crisis typically leads countries to rely more on exports to make up for the fall in internal demand (ask the IMF…) yet that surplus often seems to disappear when it comes to the statistics on global imbalances.

Russia 

• The Next Generation: Russia’s Future Leaders     The Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center

  President Vladimir Putin is initiating a generational shift in Russia’s leadership. According to Kremlin insiders, during his current presidential term, Putin plans to retire some of his most influential and longest-serving allies, many of whom are well into their seventies. Putin himself, at age seventy-two, has no intention of stepping down. He sees himself as entirely irreplaceable. But he is gradually replacing other key figures with members of a younger generation, as the older officials age, fall ill, and become less effective. This transition began last year.  It is hardly surprising that a significant portion of this new generation coming to power consists of the children of current top officials and Putin’s closest friends—or even his own relatives. In this sense, Russia increasingly resembles a feudal state, in which power is inherited at all levels. The children of the bureaucratic aristocracy are all, in one way or another, striving for government careers and positions of influence.  This report examines the rising generation of the Russian elite and what this shift means for Russia’s future. It is based on extensive interviews with dozens of current and former Russian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the inner workings of the Kremlin power elite without fear of reprisals.

• China may not want Russia to lose – or to win – in Ukraine   Asia Times

  The South China Morning Post (SCMP) cited unnamed sources to report that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his EU counterpart that China doesn’t want Russia to lose in Ukraine because the US’s whole focus might then shift to China.  His alleged remarks were spun by the mainstream media as an admission that China isn’t as neutral as it claims, just as they and their alternative media rivals suspected. Both now believe that China will help Russia achieve its maximum goals, but that’s likely not the case.

Geoeconomics

• War, geopolitics, energy crisis: how the economy evades every disaster  The Economist

  Although today’s dangers are not in the same league as World War II, they are significant. Pundits talk of a “polycrisis” running from the covid-19 pandemic, land war in Europe and the worst energy shock since the 1970s to stubborn inflation, banking scares, a Chinese property bust and trade war. One measure of global risk is 30% higher than its long-term average (see chart 1). Consumer-confidence surveys suggest that households are unusually pessimistic about the state of the economy, both in America and elsewhere (see chart 2). Geopolitical consultants are raking it in, as Wall Street banks fork out on analysts to pontificate about developments in the Donbas or a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.  The world economy appears impressively and increasingly shock-absorbent. Why?

• What Happens When Big Tech Goes Nuclear?   Jayita Sarkar/Time Magazine & The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Silicon Valley firms are advocating for the U.S. to embark on a nuclear energy renaissance... The ethos of Big Tech to “move fast and break things” could spur unprecedented innovation in nuclear energy, especially through the construction of small modular reactors, microreactors, and even fusion.  But, just like Silicon Valley itself, which has historically flourished through the invisible hand of the state, the nuclear energy industry might also need increased guidance from the government in order to be safe, secure, and reliable.

• The global persistence of work from home    PNAS

  Abstract:  Work from home (WFH) surged worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic, then partially receded as the pandemic subsided. Using our Global Survey of Working Arrangements covering dozens of countries, we find that average WFH rates among college-educated employees stabilized after 2022. The average number of WFH days per week is steady at roughly 1 d per week globally from 2023 through early 2025. Cross-country variation persists: WFH is about twice as common in advanced English-speaking economies as in much of Asia. These results show how the pandemic-driven shift to remote work has persisted and reached a new equilibrium, with implications for urban

• Honey, AI Capex is Eating the Economy     Paul Kedorsky’s Applied Complexity

  Looking at the boom in building data centers in the US (and elsewhere around the world), Kedorsky looks at how the spending compares.  Compare this to prior capex frenzies, like railroads or telecom. Peak railroad spending came in the 19th century, and peak telecom spending was around the 5G/fiber frenzy. It's not clear whether we're at peak yet or not, but ... we're up there. Capital expenditures on AI data centers are likely around 20% of the peak spending on railroads, as a percentage of GDP, and it is still rising quickly. And we've already passed the decades-ago peak in telecom spending during the dot-com bubble.

 The Future of Election Polling

• Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections       Institute of National Security, Peabody College, Vanderbilt University

  In a new study conducted at Vanderbilt University, the prediction markets – and Polymarkets in particular -  outperformed traditional national and state-level polling during the 2024 election. According to Professor Brett Goldstein, who oversaw the study, “Our research reveals a fundamental shift in how we might assess and forecast elections.”

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Fed Votes to Move Ease Rating Requirements for “Well Managed” Banks, Just as the Renovation and Bee Controversy Heats Up, Gould Gets Confirmed as Comptroller, and Two Major Crypto Bills Make Major Strides

July 14 - 18, 2025

It may be the middle of summer in Washington, but it remains a busy time here in the nation’s capital for Congress and regulators. 

On Tuesday, the House of Representatives is poised to pass two major pieces of legislation and send one of them to President Trump’s desk to be signed into law.  The first bill will regulate so-called Stable Coins. President Trump has indicated he will sign the legislation.  The second bill would create a crypto market structure bill and will be sent to the Senate. 

The House Financial Services Committee is holding more hearings this coming week, looking at the impact of Dodd-Frank, which was passed into law 15 years ago.  Talking to Congressional staff, it is all part of a prelude to likely new deregulatory legislation in the coming months. It also provides some cover to the SEC and CFTC to look at deregulatory moves, as well.

Meanwhile, the Senate confirmed Jonathan Gould as Comptroller of the Currency last week and is getting ready for a confirmation hearing for Travis Hill as the next Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). 

As all this was happening, the Federal Reserve voted last week to move forward with a proposed regulation adjusting the supervisory rating framework, something that is likely to make it easier for banks to merge.  Currently, any bank that loses its “well-managed” status can be limited in its ability to undertake certain activities, such as mergers and acquisitions, as well as in investing in other companies involved in certain financial activities.

But that was the good news out of the Fed for the week.  Fed Chair Jay Powell continues to be under growing fire for an ongoing renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters.  More Republican members of Congress and supporters of President Trump are beginning to argue the supposed mismanagement of the project, which reportedly includes lavish remodeling of the headquarters and the building of beehives on the Fed grounds, as a “cause” for which President Trump can fire Powell.  We are dubious it will get to that point and believe it is all part of a larger effort to pressure Powell to move on lowering interest rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. 

Below are the meetings and events happening this week in Washington of note:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Tuesday, July 15, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled “Stakeholder Perspectives on Federal Oversight of Digital Commodities.’

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled “Dodd-Frank Turns 15: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead”  You can read the Committee Staff Background Memo HERE.

·       Wednesday, July 16, 9:00 a.m. – The House Ways and Means Oversight Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Making America the Crypto Capital of the World: Ensuring Digital Asset Policy Built for the 21st Century."

·       Wednesday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions holds a hearing entitled “U.S. Policy on Investment Security.”

·       Wednesday, July 16, 2:00 p.m. – The House Agriculture General Farm Commodities. Risk Management, and Credit Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Financing Farm Operations: The Importance of Credit and Risk Management.

·       Wednesday, July 16, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on "HOME 2.: Modern Solutions to the Housing Shortage."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday, July 15 - The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Tuesday, July 15, 9:15 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).

·       Tuesday, July 15, 12:45 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “expanding financial inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Wednesday, July 16, 9:15 a.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.

·       Wednesday, July 16, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Wednesday, July 16, 6:30 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.

·       Thursday, July 17, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, July 17, 1:30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).

·       Thursday, July 17, 6;30 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Thursday, July 17, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Tuesday, July 15, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC Board will meet in open session. The agenda includes a proposed amendment to FDIC Guidelines for Appeals of Material Supervisory Determinations; Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding Adjusting and Indexing Part 363 and Certain Other FDIC Regulatory Thresholds; Request for Information regarding Industrial Banks and Industrial Loan Companies and Their Parent Companies.  Additionally, the Board will vote on a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding Community Reinvestment Act Regulations, a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking regarding Establishment and Relocation of Branches and Offices, a Notice regarding Parent Companies of Industrial Banks and Industrial Loan Companies; Withdrawal of Proposed Rule, and a Notice regarding Regulatory Publication and Review Under the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act of 1996.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Thursday, July 17 – The American Bankers Association holds its Women Lead Symposium (virtual).

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Wednesday, July 16, Noon – The Exchequer Club of Washington, D.C. will host Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) as their luncheon speaker.

·       Thursday, July 17, 11:30 a.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "The House Financial Services Committee Agenda” with House Financial Services Committee’s Ranking Democrat, Representative Maxine Waters (D-CA).

Recommended Reading

• AI’s role in credit is growing, are things moving too fast?     Federal Reserve Bank of Boston The Future of Finance Podcast

  People in the credit business are starting to see just how much AI can do for them. It can improve profits and lower defaults. It can predict demand for new services. It can see past credit scores and comprehensively assess lending risks. That’s why AI’s role in credit is only going to get bigger going forward. Some people are very excited about that. And some are very worried.  AI will lie unless you tell it not to. It will collude on pricing with other AI. Experts say those are a couple reasons why we need to proceed with caution and better understand potential hazards.   For additional background on this subject, read an outline of the keynote speech at the 68th Economic Conference by UC-Berkeley professor Adair Morse, “AI Innovation for Credit: Frontiers of Benefits & Red Flags.” Watch a recording of the speech.

• Reporting FinCEN’s Suspicious Activity, Again        Cato Institute

  The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has released its 2024 “Year in Review” report, and things are not looking good. Once again, the agency has highlighted lackluster statistics in an attempt to justify financial surveillance in the United States.  Let’s start at the top and work our way down. Under the Bank Secrecy Act, banks and other financial institutions are required by law to report customers under certain circumstances. According to FinCEN, more than 27.5 million reports were filed in 2024 (Table 1). That’s roughly 75 thousand reports a day.
  

• Banking Analytics: The Growing Connection between Bank and Nonbank Sectors    Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. banks held $1.14 trillion in loans outstanding to the nonbank financial sector. This sector consists of nondepository financial institutions (NDFIs), which engage in credit intermediation, asset management, market-making and other financial services in the economy. This interconnectedness between banks and nonbanks adds an extra layer of intermediation, as banks lend to mortgage companies, insurance companies, investment funds (such as mutual funds, money market funds, hedge funds and private capital funds), pension funds, broker-dealers, securitization vehicles and other financial entities, which then lend directly to end users in the economy. 

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump to Make “Major Statement” on Ukraine, Japan Holds Major Elections, German Chancellor Merz Travels to London To Sign the UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty, and the G20 Finance Ministers Meet in South Africa

July 13 - 20, 2025

It will be another hectic week on the geopolitical stage as President Trump has promised to make a “major statement” on Ukraine on Monday.  The announcement, which is expected to be a substantial commitment of new military aid to Ukraine, comes as the President meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington.  If Trump does, in fact, announce a sizeable commitment of weapons to Kyiv, it will be a major policy shift for the President and suggest a significant new turn in the war, not to mention Trump’s growing irritation with Russian President Vladimir Putin for refusing to engage in peace negotiations. 

All this comes as President Trump continues to press forward with aggressive tariff threats, announcing on Friday that he is putting new tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, and Canada.   Both Mexico and Canada are going to be hit with new 30 percent tariffs for fentanyl smuggling into the US, according to a letter Trump posted on Truth Social, his media platform.   The EU will also face new 30 percent tariffs, according to Trump’s letter, for failing to deal in good faith with the US in ongoing trade negotiations.

Also, this week, markets will be watching Japan’s Upper House elections to understand the further stability of  Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s ruling government and what sort of flexibility the Bank of Japan has on raising interest rates.  Japan’s opposition parties are advocating for tax cuts and looser monetary policy, and if they gain substantially in Sunday’s elections, the central bank will feel significant pressure not to raise rates.

Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos next Sunday for trade talks while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka.  While no formal bilateral meetings between Bessent and Japanese negotiators have been announced, it is expected that he will sit down with them while there to try and unlock stalled trade talks.

In Europe this week, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz makes his first visit to London since being elected in May. While there, he will sign a new UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty designed to significantly ramp up mutual defense and economic cooperation, all part of greater Europe’s effort rapidly build up military capabilities in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and Russian President Putin’s continuous demands for Eastern European countries to leave NATO.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, G20 finance and central bank governors meet in South Africa.  No significant announcements or outcomes are expected from those meetings at this time.

In terms of major economic reports this week, the highly anticipated US June CPI report is out on Tuesday, telling markets if there is any new inflationary movement as a result of the Trump tariffs.  The PPI report will be out on Wednesday, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey results for July will be released on Friday. Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, along with industrial production numbers.  And the June retail sales come out on Thursday.

While we normally do not cover earnings, we note that many of the largest US banks will be releasing earnings this week (JP Morgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs).  Markets will be looking to see how strong their earnings are as another indicator of overall US economic strength.

Turning to Asia, China’s Q2 GDP and June retail activity data are out on Tuesday. Japan releases the Bank of Japan’s Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior for June on Monday, the June customs trade data on Thursday, and the CPI figures on Friday.

In Europe this week, the UK will release CPI data on Wednesday and labor market reports on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues a six-day visit to China (which began on Saturday).  Albanese has brought a large delegation of Australian businessmen in the hope of signing a number of trade deals.

·       Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to China for the first time in five years for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.  Jainshankar will then travel on to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Council of Foreign Ministers July 14-15.  The Chinese and Indian Foreign Ministers are expected to discuss Indian-Pakistan tensions, rare earth supplies to India, the Dalai Lama’s succession, and the resumption of direct flights between the two countries.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Pyongyang, South Korea.

·       Australia will host the Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 military drills with 18 other participating nations, including the United States and Japan, through August 4.

·       Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words, enemies of Imperial Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.

·       Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) and the UN Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the  
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).  

·       The UN’s  High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) will open its session in the General Assembly Hall at the UN Headquarters in New York. The Forum will continue until 23 July. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will be in Washington through July 15 for meetings with President Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.  President Trump, in an interview last week, said he would “have a major statement to make on Russia” today.  It is believed he will formally announce new military aid programs for Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (May)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers meets in Tianjin through July 15.  They are expected to discuss regional trade and security matters.  There are nine members of the SCO: the Republic of India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People's Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan.

·       The China-EU Sixth High-Level Environment and Climate Dialogue begins in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (June)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (June)

·       Japan Machinery Orders (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Tertiary Industry Index (May)

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ New Yuan Loans (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (June)/ Total Social Financing (June)

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (May)

·       India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.  EU trade ministers are expected to discuss the state of trade negotiations with the US, EU-China trade relations, and other major issues.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  The agenda includes an overview of the current marketplace and an EU-wide initiative to diversify protein sources for food and feed.

·       The first-ever EU-Central America Association Council meets in Brussels.  The meeting brings together leaders from the EU and six Central American countries - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. 

·       France celebrates Bastille Day.  Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is the guest of honor, per an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in an exchange of views at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Hungary Construction Output (May)

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

·       Romania Current Account (May)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana PPI (June)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Global

·       OPEC releases its monthly report. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will speak at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

·       The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for former National Security Advisor Mike Walz to serve as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

·       The Aspen Security Forum begins in Aspen, Colorado.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “Expanding Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before an event of the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.

·       Canada Housing Starts (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)

·       USA Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)/ Redbook (July/12)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/11)

·       Colombia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (July)

·       China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)/ GDP (June)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/15)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas will chair the meeting of EU Foreign Ministers.  The primary agenda items will be Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and will include a video discussion with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha.  The ministers will also discuss the situation in Georgia, the Middle East (Gaza, Israel, and Iran), and the New Pact for the Mediterranean.

·       UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives annual Mansion House speech in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner at Mansion House in London.

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

·       Romania Industrial Production (May)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (May)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (June)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (June)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ Industrial Production (May)/ ECB Buch Speech

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

·       Serbia Building Permits (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (June)

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (May)/ Mining Production (May)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

·       Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Global

·       UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is convening an informal meeting on Cyprus at UN Headquarters. 

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The inauguration of Jennifer Geerlings-Simons as the new President of Suriname is held in Paramiribo.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.

·       The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book/ USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/11)/ PPI (June)/Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/11)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing begins and runs through Saturday. Nvidia will take part for the first time, according to state media reports.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Export Prices (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission will present a sweeping new EU budget reform package. This swill include proposals for the 2028-2035 EU multiannual financial framework that will include closer alignment on strategic priorities such as rearmament, industrial competition, and tech policy.

·       There will be informal meetings of EU Research Ministers and EU Ministers for Internal Markets and Industry in Brussels through July 18.

·       The Foreign Ministers of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine – the so-called “Lublin Triangle” – will meet in Lublin, Lithuania.

·       German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and French counterpart Eric Lombard meet and hold a press conference in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (May)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (May)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (May)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (June)

·       Belarus Industrial Production (June)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (May)

·       Russia PPI (June)

·       Turkey Budget Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Zambia will hold an International Investment Conference in Lusaka through July 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Retail Sales (May)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

Global

·       G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will begin two days of meetings in Zimbali, South Africa through July 18.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (ending hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ / NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in South Korea, which is not a national holiday anymore as of 2008.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (June)

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/12)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Employment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (June)

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to London for his first official meeting since taking office in May.  He will meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and will also sign the UK–Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty that will include significant mutual defense and economic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (June)

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (May)

·       Serbia Current Account (May)

·       Belarus GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

·       Jordan Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (May)

Friday, July 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Constitution Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA Housing Starts (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/18)

·       Colombia ISE Economic Activity (May)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       India Bank Loan Growth (July/04)/ Deposit Growth (July/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Romanian President Nicuşor Dan in Berlin, Germany.

·       EU Immigration Ministers will gather in Berlin to discuss asylum rules.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany PPI (June)

·       Euro Area Current Account (May)/ Construction Output (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (May)

·       Turkey Business Confidence Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

·       Slovakia Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 19, 2025 

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka.  It is unclear at this point whether Bessent will hold bilateral meetings on trade with Japanese officials while there.

·       Today is Liberation Day in Nicaragua, a national holiday celebrating the beginning of the hostilities pushing the Somoza family from power.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos travels to Washington for meetings with President Trump through July 22.

·       Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.  124 of the 248 members are up for election in the National Diet where they serve six-year terms.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (July)

·       Japan Upper House Election

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.