The Global Week Ahead

Jul 13

President Trump to Make “Major Statement” on Ukraine, Japan Holds Major Elections, German Chancellor Merz Travels to London To Sign the UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty, and the G20 Finance Ministers Meet in South Africa

July 13 - 20, 2025

It will be another hectic week on the geopolitical stage as President Trump has promised to make a “major statement” on Ukraine on Monday. The announcement, which is expected to be a substantial commitment of new military aid to Ukraine, comes as the President meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington. If Trump does, in fact, announce a sizeable commitment of weapons to Kyiv, it will be a major policy shift for the President and suggest a significant new turn in the war, not to mention Trump’s growing irritation with Russian President Vladimir Putin for refusing to engage in peace negotiations.

All this comes as President Trump continues to press forward with aggressive tariff threats, announcing on Friday that he is putting new tariffs on the European Union, Mexico, and Canada. Both Mexico and Canada are going to be hit with new 30 percent tariffs for fentanyl smuggling into the US, according to a letter Trump posted on Truth Social, his media platform. The EU will also face new 30 percent tariffs, according to Trump’s letter, for failing to deal in good faith with the US in ongoing trade negotiations.

Also, this week, markets will be watching Japan’s Upper House elections to understand the further stability of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s ruling government and what sort of flexibility the Bank of Japan has on raising interest rates. Japan’s opposition parties are advocating for tax cuts and looser monetary policy, and if they gain substantially in Sunday’s elections, the central bank will feel significant pressure not to raise rates.

Trump will host Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos next Sunday for trade talks while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka. While no formal bilateral meetings between Bessent and Japanese negotiators have been announced, it is expected that he will sit down with them while there to try and unlock stalled trade talks.

In Europe this week, German Chancellor Fredrich Merz makes his first visit to London since being elected in May. While there, he will sign a new UK-Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty designed to significantly ramp up mutual defense and economic cooperation, all part of greater Europe’s effort rapidly build up military capabilities in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and Russian President Putin’s continuous demands for Eastern European countries to leave NATO.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, G20 finance and central bank governors meet in South Africa. No significant announcements or outcomes are expected from those meetings at this time.

In terms of major economic reports this week, the highly anticipated US June CPI report is out on Tuesday, telling markets if there is any new inflationary movement as a result of the Trump tariffs. The PPI report will be out on Wednesday, and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey results for July will be released on Friday. Also out this week are the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday, along with industrial production numbers. And the June retail sales come out on Thursday.

While we normally do not cover earnings, we note that many of the largest US banks will be releasing earnings this week (JP Morgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs). Markets will be looking to see how strong their earnings are as another indicator of overall US economic strength.

Turning to Asia, China’s Q2 GDP and June retail activity data are out on Tuesday. Japan releases the Bank of Japan’s Opinion Survey on the General Public's Views and Behavior for June on Monday, the June customs trade data on Thursday, and the CPI figures on Friday.

In Europe this week, the UK will release CPI data on Wednesday and labor market reports on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese continues a six-day visit to China (which began on Saturday). Albanese has brought a large delegation of Australian businessmen in the hope of signing a number of trade deals.

· Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar travels to China for the first time in five years for meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Jainshankar will then travel on to Tianjin to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Council of Foreign Ministers July 14-15. The Chinese and Indian Foreign Ministers are expected to discuss Indian-Pakistan tensions, rare earth supplies to India, the Dalai Lama’s succession, and the resumption of direct flights between the two countries.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Pyongyang, South Korea.

· Australia will host the Exercise Talisman Sabre 2025 military drills with 18 other participating nations, including the United States and Japan, through August 4.

· Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words, enemies of Imperial Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France celebrates Bastille Day.

· Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 14, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Integrated Office in Haiti (BINUH) and the UN Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA). Also, in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the
United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP).

· The UN’s High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development (HLPF) will open its session in the General Assembly Hall at the UN Headquarters in New York. The Forum will continue until 23 July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte will be in Washington through July 15 for meetings with President Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. President Trump, in an interview last week, said he would “have a major statement to make on Russia” today. It is believed he will formally announce new military aid programs for Ukraine.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Wholesale Sales (May)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Chinese-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) Council of Foreign Ministers meets in Tianjin through July 15. They are expected to discuss regional trade and security matters. There are nine members of the SCO: the Republic of India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Republic of Kazakhstan, the People's Republic of China, the Kyrgyz Republic, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Tajikistan, and the Republic of Uzbekistan.

· The China-EU Sixth High-Level Environment and Climate Dialogue begins in Beijing.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (June)/ Electronic Retail Card Spending (June)

· Japan Machinery Orders (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Tertiary Industry Index (May)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ New Yuan Loans (June)/ M2 Money Supply (June)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (June)/ Total Social Financing (June)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (May)

· India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels. EU trade ministers are expected to discuss the state of trade negotiations with the US, EU-China trade relations, and other major issues.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels. The agenda includes an overview of the current marketplace and an EU-wide initiative to diversify protein sources for food and feed.

· The first-ever EU-Central America Association Council meets in Brussels. The meeting brings together leaders from the EU and six Central American countries - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama.

· France celebrates Bastille Day. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is the guest of honor, per an invitation from French President Emmanuel Macron.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in an exchange of views at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Hungary Construction Output (May)

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (June)

· Romania Current Account (May)

· Poland Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Euro Area ECB Cipollone Speech

· Turkey Auto Production & Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (June)

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Global

· OPEC releases its monthly report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will speak at the Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

· The Federal Reserve holds its Unleashing a Financially Inclusive Future Conference in Washington, D.C.

· The Senate Foreign Relations Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for former National Security Advisor Mike Walz to serve as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

· The Aspen Security Forum begins in Aspen, Colorado.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will give remarks at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference (via pre-recorded video).

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech entitled “Expanding Financial Inclusion” at the Federal Reserve Board's Second Annual Financial Inclusion Conference, Washington, D.C.

· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks before an event of the World Affairs Council of San Antonio.

· Canada Housing Starts (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Median (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (May)

· USA Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI (June)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (July)/ Redbook (July/12)/ Fed Bowman Speech/ NOPA Crush Report/API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/11)

· Colombia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (June)

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (May)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index & Change (July)

· China House Price Index (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (June)/ Industrial Capacity Utilization Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production (June)/ GDP (June)

· India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July/15)

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas will chair the meeting of EU Foreign Ministers. The primary agenda items will be Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and will include a video discussion with Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Minister Andrii Sybiha. The ministers will also discuss the situation in Georgia, the Middle East (Gaza, Israel, and Iran), and the New Pact for the Mediterranean.

· UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives annual Mansion House speech in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives an introductory statement at Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner at Mansion House in London.

· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

· Romania Industrial Production (May)

· Hungary Industrial Production (May)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ Industrial Production (May)/ ECB Buch Speech

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (July)/ ZEW Current Conditions (July)

· Serbia Building Permits (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (June)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

· Oman Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (May)/ Mining Production (May)

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ M3 Money Supply (June)

· Nigeria Food Inflation (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Global

· UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres is convening an informal meeting on Cyprus at UN Headquarters.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The inauguration of Jennifer Geerlings-Simons as the new President of Suriname is held in Paramiribo.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will give a speech on financial regulation at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the New York Association for Business Economics (NYABE) Distinguished Speaker Series.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on "Community Development" before the Cuyahoga County Community College Corporate College 20th Anniversary Celebration Business Breakfast.

· The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book/ USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/11)/ MBA Purchase Index (July/11)/ PPI (June)/Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (July/11)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing begins and runs through Saturday. Nvidia will take part for the first time, according to state media reports.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Imports/ Export Prices (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (July)

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (July)/ Lending Facility Rate (July)

· Philippines Cash Remittances (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Commission will present a sweeping new EU budget reform package. This swill include proposals for the 2028-2035 EU multiannual financial framework that will include closer alignment on strategic priorities such as rearmament, industrial competition, and tech policy.

· There will be informal meetings of EU Research Ministers and EU Ministers for Internal Markets and Industry in Brussels through July 18.

· The Foreign Ministers of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine – the so-called “Lublin Triangle” – will meet in Lublin, Lithuania.

· German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil and French counterpart Eric Lombard meet and hold a press conference in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Price Index (June)

· Hungary Gross Wage (May)

· Italy Inflation Rate (June)/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (May)

· Ireland Residential Property Prices (May)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (June)

· Belarus Industrial Production (June)

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (May)

· Russia PPI (June)

· Turkey Budget Balance (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 3rd Est Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Zambia will hold an International Investment Conference in Lusaka through July 18.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Retail Sales (May)

Thursday, July 17, 2025

Global

· G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will begin two days of meetings in Zimbali, South Africa through July 18.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the 1701 report (ending hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler will give a speech entitled “A view of the Housing Market and U.S. Economic Outlook” at the Housing Partnership Network Symposium in Washington, D.C.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute (virtually).

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Money Marketeers Event in New York.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (May)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/12)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (July)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Import Prices (June)/ Export Prices (June)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ / NAHB Housing Market Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July/11)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (July/17)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (May)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (May)/ Fed Balance Sheet (July/16)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in South Korea, which is not a national holiday anymore as of 2008.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Food Inflation (June)

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July/12)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July/12)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ Employment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Participation Rate (June)

· Indonesia Loan Growth (June)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz travels to London for his first official meeting since taking office in May. He will meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and will also sign the UK–Germany Strategic Partnership Treaty that will include significant mutual defense and economic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (June)

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (May)/ Employment Change (May)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (June)/ Claimant Count Change (June)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (June)

· Euro Area CPI Final (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (May)

· Serbia Current Account (May)

· Belarus GDP (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Expectations (July)

· Jordan Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (May)

Friday, July 18, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on Colombia.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Uruguay, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA Housing Starts (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (July)/ Michigan Current Conditions (July)/ Michigan Inflation Expectations (July)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July/18)

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity (May)

· Argentina Economic Activity (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation Rate (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (June)

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· India Bank Loan Growth (July/04)/ Deposit Growth (July/04)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz meets Romanian President Nicuşor Dan in Berlin, Germany.

· EU Immigration Ministers will gather in Berlin to discuss asylum rules.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany PPI (June)

· Euro Area Current Account (May)/ Construction Output (May)

· Italy Construction Output (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Spain Balance of Trade (May)

· Turkey Business Confidence Q3/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/11)

· Slovakia Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, July 19, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent travels to Japan to attend the World Expo in Osaka. It is unclear at this point whether Bessent will hold bilateral meetings on trade with Japanese officials while there.

· Today is Liberation Day in Nicaragua, a national holiday celebrating the beginning of the hostilities pushing the Somoza family from power.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 20, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos travels to Washington for meetings with President Trump through July 22.

· Today is Independence Day in Colombia, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds its upper house of parliament elections. 124 of the 248 members are up for election in the National Diet where they serve six-year terms.

The Global Week Ahead

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