Recommended Weekend Reads

America’s Secret Weapon for its Critical Weapons Strategy, How China’s Economy is Weathering the Economic Storm, AI’s Exponential Growth is Not Impacting the Labor Market, and What Impact Pharma Tariffs Will Have on Healthcare Costs

October 3 - 5, 2025

Each week, we gather up the best research and reports we have read in the past week and pass them on to you.  Below is this week’s curated collection.  We hope you find them interesting and informative, and that you have a great weekend.

Updates on the Global Race for Critical Minerals

• The Secret Weapon in America’s Critical Minerals Strategy    Hudson Institute’s “First Breakfast”

  Since 1980, leaders in Washington have stressed the need to secure rare earth supply chains to achieve strategic independence from America’s adversaries.  In the coming weeks, Congress will decide on legislation reauthorizing the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the little-known agency established during the first Trump administration as a counterweight to China’s predatory investment practices under its Belt & Road Initiative. The DFC maintains a dual mandate to advance U.S. foreign policy and economic development by mobilizing the private sector abroad, injecting capital, and offering insurance to support projects that further U.S. strategic goals. Given the great demand for rare earths and their refined products here at home, the DFC presents an opportunity to work with our foreign partners and American businesses to bolster our supply chains abroad. This is not a new idea; the creators of the BUILD Act, which authorized the DFC, envisioned the agency investing in key industries like mining, energy, and logistics. Unfortunately, results in the mineral sector have fallen short of these aspirations. Since operations began in December 2019, the DFC has made nearly 650 investments, fewer than a dozen of which are in mining-related projects.

• Leveraging US-Africa critical mineral opportunities: Strategies for success   Brookings Institution

  The U.S. is highly dependent on imports of critical minerals, but existing supply chains are vulnerable, plagued with high geographic concentration, slow mine development, and under-researched reserves. The authors argue for why Africa is uniquely positioned to partner with the U.S. in a supply chain realignment, given the former’s significant reserves, existing mining and refining infrastructure, and business opportunities along development corridors. With other countries such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union entering into the African critical minerals sector, the U.S. should not be left behind.  The authors provide actionable recommendations to both the U.S. and African countries for creating and growing a mutually beneficial critical minerals partnership.

Russia & China 

• Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War     China Leadership Monitor

  China is weathering deflation, a property-sector collapse, and renewed trade tensions with the United States through calculated restraint rather than panic. Exports remain resilient via market diversification and price cuts. Chinese leaders are deploying targeted fiscal interventions, pursuing supply-side reforms, and combating “involution”–destructive race-to-the-bottom competition eroding profits across industries. This strategic patience reveals Beijing’s fundamental gamble: accept short-term economic pain to build long-term technological dominance and self-sufficiency. The leadership believes that the emerging high-tech sectors will ultimately replace both lost export markets and the crumbling property engine. This is a high-stakes bet on China’s ability to transform its economic model under pressure.

• With Putin in Charge, Russia’s Vassalage to China Will Only Deepen     Carnegie Politika

  Moscow should be looking for ways to correct its course and restore balance in its foreign policy, instead of putting all its eggs in the China basket. But Putin is no pragmatic decision-maker, and the deepening vassalage to China is his own choice.

• Global FDI is uncoupling from China   Robin Brook’s Substack

  Brooks writes: “A few weeks ago, I wrote a post about how foreign investors have been putting less money to work in China, with non-resident flows into China a lot weaker since the invasion of Ukraine. Weaker foreign flows into China stand in contrast to flows to the rest of EM, where inflows have rebounded to very robust levels. This suggests that global markets - in the wake of the Ukraine invasion - are paying closer attention to geopolitical risks and are taking a more cautious approach to China.”

•  Don’t Overestimate the Autocratic Alliance     Foreign Affairs

  No moment captured the shifting global balance of power more vividly than when Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un walked in lockstep on the red carpet at China’s military parade in early September. The three autocrats, despite a long history of mutual suspicion, projected a show of unity against Washington. The message behind the carefully managed scene was unmistakable: China is at the center of a rising anti-Western bloc, while the United States is adrift—divided at home, faltering abroad, and rebuffed by its rivals.   But beneath this show of solidarity, China, North Korea, and Russia remain uneasy partners. What the three countries have is a tactical alignment rooted not in trust or shared values but in overlapping grievances and necessity. History demonstrates that they are not natural allies. Each state remains wary of entrapment and is unwilling to subordinate its national interests to those of the others. And crucially, each still seeks something from the United States—leverage that Washington must wield wisely.

Geoeconomics

• Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs    The Yale Budget Lab

  The Yale Budget Lab looks at how AI is impacting employment – specifically, whether it is causing an increase in unemployment.  Their report shows that overall, their metrics indicate that the broader labor market has not experienced a discernible disruption since ChatGPT’s release 33 months ago, undercutting fears that AI automation is currently eroding the demand for cognitive labor across the economy.
  

• The Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index        Bertelsmann Stiftung/ECIPE

  In today’s European neighborhood, trade, investment, and economic policy have become deeply entangled with geopolitical competition — involving the EU, the United States, China, and Russia as leading geoeconomic actors. The Geoeconomic Interconnectivity Index brings together a wide range of indicators across trade, investment, and economic policy in an accessible, comparable format. Covering the years 2010 to 2023, it provides a clear picture of evolving patterns of economic engagement.  The Index is designed to support timely and informed debate on the EU’s external policies — offering insights that matter in a geoeconomic age.

• How Pharmaceutical Tariffs Will Affect US Health Care Costs       Alex Brill/AEI Economic Perspectives

  Tariffs on pharmaceuticals are under consideration following a Section 232 investigation into imports of medicines and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). With US imports in 2024 totaling $210.8 billion in finished medicines and $36.2 billion in APIs, the threat of tariffs puts nearly $250 billion in trade at risk. Tariffs could raise list or net prices for pharmaceuticals, drive up insurance premiums, increase the risk of drug shortages, elevate costs for US producers using imported APIs, and reduce the competitiveness of US exports of finished drugs.

•  War, Geopolitics, Energy Crisis: How the Economy Evades Every Disaster   The Economist

  The world economy appears impressively and increasingly shock-absorbent. Supply chains in goods—widely believed to be a source of fragility—have shown themselves to be resilient. A more diverse supply of energy and a less fossil-fuel-intensive economy have reduced the impact of changes in the oil price. And across the world, economic policymaking has improved. According to the conventional narrative, the “great moderation”, a period of steady growth and predictable policymaking, ran from the late 1980s to the global financial crisis of 2007-09. But perhaps it did not die alongside Lehman Brothers.  This year, just 5% of countries are on track for a recession, according to IMF data—the least since 2007. Unemployment in the OECD club of rich countries is below 5% and close to a record low. In the first quarter of 2025, global corporate earnings rose by 7% year on year. Emerging markets, long prone to capital flight in times of trouble, now tend to avoid currency or debt crises (see chart 3). Consumers across the world, despite claiming to be down in the dumps, spend freely. On almost any measure, the economy is basically fine. 

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

A Government Shutdown Looms – And A Large Number of Federal Workers May be Fired, the SEC and CFTC Hold a Cooperation Roundtable, and the White House Seems To Be Looking for a New CFTC Chair

September 29 - October 3, 2025

Congress was out of session last week doing “home business” – meaning, back in their home states, talking to constituents and trying to let cooler heads prevail in hammering out a possible short-term funding deal to keep the federal government open. 

The deadline is midnight Tuesday, and as of this writing, we would suggest there is an 80 percent chance a shutdown will happen.  But what comes next appears unprecedented: The White House’s Office of Management and Budget has sent federal departments and agencies a memo outlining how they intend to fire large numbers of federal workers instead of furloughing them.  Congressional Democrats absolutely do not want to see that happen and are now feeling pressure to cut a deal.  But we do not see a deal coming together that quickly – so, this could be quite a big week for Washington.

While all this is going on, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodities Futures Trading Commission are holding a “Joint Roundtable on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts.”   For those old, grizzled former SEC and CFTC officials (like me), this is a bit of a shock as the two agencies have held each other at arm’s length for, well, decades.  The two regulators have resisted doing anything that could suggest “harmonization” between them because that could suggest a merger (there have been many battles have been fought over this idea over the last 40 years).

Looking at what we learned in the past week, there were numerous reports that the White House is now vetting Milbank, Tweed partner Josh Sterling to be the new CFTC Chair.  It remains quite a mystery as to why the White House is backing away from Brian Quintenz as the nominee.  Quintenz has already had his confirmation hearing before the Senate Agriculture Committee, and beyond the Winklevoss Twins apparently complaining about him to President Trump, there have been no real complaints or problems with his nomination.

Below is a listing of all the rest of the major regulatory events in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Tuesday, September 30, 10:30 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will consider the nominations of Benjamin Hobbs and Ronald Kurtz to both be Assistant Secretaries of Housing and Urban Development, Chris Pilkerton to be Assistant Secretary for Investment Security, and Jonathan Burke to be Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing, both of the Department of the Treasury.

• Wednesday, October 1, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee will hold a hearing to examine how to tax digital assets.

House of Representatives

• The House of Representatives may or may not be out of session this week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Monday, September 29, 7:30 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller will give a speech on payments at the Sibos 2025 Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

• Monday, September 29, 8:00 a.m. – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in a policy panel before the hybrid "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025" hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Center for Inflation Research, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

• Monday, September 29, 1:30 p.m. – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks before the event, "The Past, Present and Future of the Federal Reserve".

• Monday, September 29, 1:30 p.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in a conversation organized by the Rochester Institute of Technology.

• Monday, September 29, 6:00 p.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a conversation on Atlanta's economy, air travel, and leadership as part of the Atlanta Fed Leading Voices Series.

• Tuesday, September 30, 6:00 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on Monetary Policy Frameworks and the US Economic Outlook at the Bank of Finland International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

• Tuesday, September 30, 12:30 p.m. -- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest Agriculture Conference: Midwest Agriculture and Trade Uncertainty.

• Tuesday, September 30, Noon – Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins makes remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations’ C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York. 

• Thursday, October 2, 6:10 p.m. – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated conversation before the UT Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference.

• Friday, October 3, 6:05 a.m. EST -- New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium organized by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)

• Friday, October 3,  1:40 p.m.  – Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on the US Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework at the Drexel Economic Forum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

• Tuesday, September 29, 1:00 p.m. – 5:30 pm. – The SEC-CFTC Joint Roundtable on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts takes place at SEC Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Tuesday, September 29, 1:00 p.m. – 5:30 pm. – The SEC-CFTC Joint Roundtable on Regulatory Harmonization Efforts takes place at SEC Headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

EU Leaders Discuss defense and Ukraine aid; Trump talks Gaza with Netanyahu; US Nears Government Shutdown, and Markets Await Numerous Central Bank Speeches

September 28 - October 5, 2025

It is going to be another fast and furious week for markets to absorb and analyze.  We believe the most important event of the week might be a gathering of EU leaders in Copenhagen on Wednesday to discuss common defense issues, how to better support Ukraine militarily, and possible enlargement.  But the main topic will be how they can collectively respond to the spike of Russian intrusions into Polish, Romanian, Danish, and Latvian airspace with fighter jets and drones.  The Russian actions can no longer be considered “accidental” and are clearly both a provocation and a testing of NATO response capabilities. 

In last week’s report, we noted EU leaders were starting to consider the building of a “drone wall” on the border with Russia.  The meeting in Copenhagen will likely solidify the plans.  It may even authorize the use of frozen Russian assets to fund the layered defense strategy, which would include advanced radar, anti-aircraft missiles, and drones to counter any future Russian airspace trespassing.

The meetings will take place after Sunday’s elections in Moldova, which are being closely watched for potential Russian interference.  The Moldovan government has already banned two political parties from participating in the election due to their alleged ties to the Kremlin.  Concerns are rising over potential civil unrest in the coming days, potentially instigated by Russia.  As of this writing Sunday night, the pro-EU Party is leading in the vote count.

Meanwhile, in Washington on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet at the White House with President Trump – their fourth such meeting this year at the White House – to discuss the crisis in Gaza and Israeli threats to begin annexing the West Bank – something President Trump has now voiced opposition to.   While at the United Nations last week, Trump convened a meeting of Arab leaders to discuss potential Gaza peace options, and he is likely to discuss them with Netanyahu during the meeting.  The deal contains 21 proposals and according to various reports, leaves the door open for the creation of a new Palestinian state.

Staying in Washington for a moment, markets are closely watching to see if Congress can hammer out a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown on Wednesday.  President Trump has agreed to meet with Republican and Democratic Congressional leaders on Monday to discuss a possible deal.  Otherwise, the House of Representatives, who passed a short-term Continuing Resolution to keep the government open before they left for the week last week, may not come back into session this week in an effort to force Senate Democrats into accepting their bill (Translation: you’d better vote for it or the shutdown is all your fault – and we won’t be here for another week to try again).  For Democrats, the real risk of this is the White House is threatening to fire – instead of furloughing – large numbers of federal workers if there is a shutdown, something Democrats absolutely want to avoid happening (but we would note, this is clearly an indicator of where the Trump Administration wants to go with the 2026 budget which Congress will be working on later this fall – massive shrinkage of the federal government, continuing the DOGE effort first begun by Elon Musk).

Looking at the global economic and financial markets radar screen this week, in the US, the major data reports being released will focus on employment, with the JOLTS report scheduled for Tuesday and the ADP report for Wednesday.   Also released this week are the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing Index and ADP employment report on Wednesday, indices on Wednesday and Friday, and factory orders on Thursday.  The ISM Services Index is scheduled for release on Friday.

Turning to Asia, Japan’s industrial production figures and the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions are out on Tuesday, and the Tankan survey is out on Wednesday.  On Tuesday, China releases September PMIs, and the Reserve Bank of Australia meets to discuss interest rates.

In Europe, markets are awaiting the flash CPIs for Germany, France, and Italy on Tuesday, as well as the Eurozone CPIs on Wednesday.  Also, there are a number of central bank speeches being given this week, including two policy speeches by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde (Tuesday and Friday) and one by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Friday).

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 28, 2025

 Global

·       The UN General Assembly continues through Monday, September 29th.

·       UN Sanctions against Iran “snap back” into place due to Iran’s refusal to maintain inspections of its nuclear program.

·       The 7th Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Material Sciences and Nanotechnology takes place in Brazil.

·       The 4th  Meeting of the BRICS Working Group on Geospatial Technologies and its Application takes place in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.  There is significant concern about likely Russian interference in the election.  Moldovan authorities barred two pro-Russia parties from this Sunday’s election. 

·       The chair of Russia's State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, will visit Vietnam through September 29th.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

·       The UK Labor Party holds its annual conference in Liverpool.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East (specifically, the situation in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon), followed by consultations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will again host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to discuss the situation in Gaza and the West Bank.

·       Ukrainian defense officials will travel to Washington to meet with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Member Christopher Waller will give a speech on payments a the Sibos 2025 Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack participates in a policy panel, "Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics Conference 2025," hosted by the European Central Bank (ECB), the Center for Inflation Research, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks at an event, "The Past, Present and Future of the Federal Reserve".

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in a conversation organized by the Rochester Institute of Technology.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a conversation on Atlanta's economy, air travel, and leadership as part of the Atlanta Fed Leading Voices Series.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)

·       / Pending Home Sales (August)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (August)

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Argentina Current Account Q2

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Carnival

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Economic Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur concludes.

·       The Asian Development Bank releases its latest economic assessment report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Asahi Noguchi speaks at the Sapporo Chamber of Commerce and Industry Conference.

·       Philippines PPI (August)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

·       Malaysia PPI (August)

·       Singapore Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ PPI (August)

·       India Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The final results of the Moldovan elections are announced.

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal market and Industry) meets in Brussels. Ministers will hold a policy debate on the European Competitiveness Fund (ECF), one of the main elements of the 2028-2034 long-term EU budget (the forthcoming multiannual financial framework (MFF).  They will then hear a presentation on simplification, and exchange views on the Single Market Strategy.

· The Warsaw Security Forum will be held in Warsaw, Poland, through September 30th.  On the sidelines of the Forum, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet with his counterparts from Ukraine, France, and Poland as part of the “Weimar Triangle.”

·       The Sibos Conference begins in Frankfurt, Germany, and runs through October 2. The theme of the conference is “The Next Frontiers of Global Finance” and will feature hundreds of speakers, including leading central bankers and government officials from around the world.  

·       The Vaclav Havel Rights Award will be announced in Strasbourg, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a keynote speech followed by a fireside chat at the Baltic Digital Euro Conference titled 'Payments & Policy in a Changing Environment' organized by Eesti Pank in Tallinn, Estonia.

· European Central Bank Board member Isabel Schnabel participates in an exchange of views on 'Current aspects of monetary policy' with the Committee on Economic and Monetary Policy of the Association of German Banks in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Governing Council member Boris Vujcic chairs panel at European Bank Coordination initiative in Brussels 

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at '10 years of the SRM - a decade delivering a more resilient financial system' organized by Banco de Portugal in Lisbon, Portugal.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at 'Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2025' conference organized by the ECB and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Euro Economic Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (September)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (August)

·       Great Britain BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Approvals (August)/ Mortgage Lending (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Interest Rate Decision/ Composite Economic Index (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Africa Energy Week begins in Cape Town, South Africa, where senior government leaders and the OPEC Secretary General will gather to discuss energy policy for the continent.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision 

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on Haiti. Then it will hold a briefing on MONUSCO, the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, followed by consultations..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to speak to Brazilian President Lula regarding US tariffs on Brazil.

·       The US Senate returns after a week off for home business.  It is unclear whether the House of Representatives will return, however, as Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) has suggested he may keep the body from returning to try to force Senate Democrats to vote in favor of the Continuing Resolution the House passed ten days ago to keep the government open.

·       At midnight, unless the US Congress passes a continuing resolution to fund the federal government, there will be a government shutdown.  The Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Voight, has threatened to fire large numbers of civil servants instead of simply furloughing them.

·       The Regional Dialogue of the Fourth International Symposium on Transboundary Waters in Latin America and the Caribbean will take place in Lima, Peru, through October  2nd, with participation by government authorities and the Inter-American Development Bank.

·       Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth convenes an extraordinary meeting of top military officials at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on Monetary Policy Frameworks and the US Economic Outlook at the Bank of Finland International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins makes remarks at the Council on Foreign Relations’ C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York. 

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Midwest Agriculture Conference: Midwest Agriculture and Trade Uncertainty

·       USA Redbook (September/27)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ Chicago PMI (September)/ JOLTs Job Openings (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks – Corn/ Soy/ Wheat (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/26)

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)

·       Costa Rica GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Current Account Q2

·       El Salvador Current Account Q2

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2

·       Mexico Fiscal Balance (August)

·       MAJOR EARNINGS: Nike

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is China National Day, otherwise known as Martyrs’ Day.

·       North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui will visit China through September 30th.

·       Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will meet South Korean President Lee Jae-myung in Busan, South Korea, through October. 1st.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Retail Sales (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and press conference Australia Private Sector Credit (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)/ Housing Credit (August)/ Building Permits (August)/Cotality Dwelling Prices (September)

·       China NBS General/Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing PMI (September)/ RatingDog General & Services & Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Current Account Q2

·       Singapore Bank Lending (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption & Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       India Government Budget Value (August)/ External Debt Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research) will meet in Brussels. Ministers are expected to approve Council conclusions on the importance of research and innovation for the EU Startup and Scaleup Strategy.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the keynote speech at the 4th Bank of Finland's International Monetary Policy Conference in Helsinki, Finland.

·       The Bank of Finland will organize the 4th International Monetary Policy Conference on Monetary Policy in the Shadow of Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Conflicts (virtual).

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the S&P Global Ratings 2025 European Financial Institutions Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates on a panel discussion titled 'View from the Top: Securing Europe; s financial future - Resilience, autonomy, and global impact' at Sibos in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at a high-level event, 'Climate action that works for you - An agenda for competitiveness, prosperity and resilience' in Brussels, Belgium.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a speech at the Cardiff Business School.

·       Germany Retail Sales (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/Baden-Württemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine-Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Great Britain Current Account Q2/ Business Investment Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ BoE Lombardelli Speech/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE L Mann Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (August)/ PPI (August)

·       France Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)

·       Turkey Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

·       Italy PPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (September)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (September)

·       Spain Current Account (July)

·       Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Ireland Industrial Sales (July)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Ukraine Current Account (August)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: Tesco

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The US-Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which went into effect 25 years ago, expires. The Act allowed duty-free trade between a number of African nations and the US.

·       The West Africa Mining Security Conference begins in Accra, Ghana.

·       Today is Botswana Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (September)

Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Global

·       Russia assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of October.  There will be a press briefing by Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations and President of the Security Council for the month, on the Programme of Work for the month of October they intend to pursue.

·       Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish year, begins at sundown and ends at nightfall on October 2nd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       New US tariffs on pharmaceuticals, large trucks, and other goods go into effect.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/26)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/26)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/26)

·       Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)

·       Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

·       Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Bank of Canada Summary of Deliberations

·       Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers sits for a fireside chat at Canada’s Competition Summit 2025 in Ottawa, Ontario.

·       Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Paraguay Current Account Q2

·       Peru Inflation Rate (September)

·       FINANCIAL EARNINGS REPORTS: ConAgra, Acuity

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is National Day of the People’s Republic of China, celebrating Mao Zedon’g formal proclamation of the establishment of the communist state – otherwise known as Golden Week.  Observed on October 1st, another six days are added to the official holiday.

·       Today is Tuvalu Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Building Permits (August)

·       Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/ RBA Chart Pack/ Commodity Prices (September)

·       Japan Tankan Large All Industry/ Manufacturers Index Q3/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       India RBI Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ HSBC Manufacturing PMI (September)/ M3 Money Supply (September/19)

·       Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)

·       Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU heads of state in Copenhagen.  EU leaders will discuss how to strengthen Europe’s defense, also in light of Russia’s recent airspace violations in several EU member states.  They will also discuss ways of further supporting Ukraine.

·       Russia officially begins its annual autumn military conscription.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet with his counterparts from the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Sochi, Russia.

·       Greece is bracing for a general nationwide strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give a one-on-one interview and then participate in a panel discussion at the POLITICO Competitive Europe Summit in Brussels, Belgium.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at the ECB Industry Dialogue on Climate and nature risk management: Taking stock and looking ahead in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

·       Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Business Confidence (September)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Switzerland Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

·       Hungry HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Sales (September)

·       Euro HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ CPI Flash (September)

·       Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)

Thursday, October 2, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan participates in a moderated conversation before the UT Evolving Energy and Policy Landscape Conference.

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)

·       USA Challenger Job Cuts (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/27)/ Factory Orders (August)/EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (October/01)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)

·       Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       Canada BoC Mendes Speech

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (September)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The 62nd US–Japan Business Conference begins in Tokyo and runs through Saturday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Inflation Rate (September)/ Current Account (August)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (September/27)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/27)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ BoJ Uchida Speech

·       Singapore URA Property Index Q3

·       Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ RBA Financial Stability Review/ Household Spending (August)

·       Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)

·       Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)

·       Sri Lanka Current Account Q2

·       Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)

·       Russia GDP (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 7th European Political Community begins in Copenhagen, Denmark.  More than 50 European leaders will participate as well as the EU Parliament, EU Commission, and the European Council.

·       French unions have called for nationwide strikes today in opposition to proposed parliamentary austerity proposals.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner participates in a fireside chat at EC-EIB-ESM Capital Markets Seminar in Luxembourg.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a fireside chat at ESADE Business School in Madrid, Spain.

·       Romania PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)

·       France Budget Balance (August)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Euro Area Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Italy Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Great Britain DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (September)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (September)

·       Greece Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (August)/ M2 Money Supply (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guinea Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

·       Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2

Friday, October 3, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will give a speech on the US Economic Outlook and the Fed’s Monetary Policy Framework at the Drexel Economic Forum in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives a keynote before the Klaas Knot Farewell Symposium organized by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)

·       USA Non-Farm Payrolls (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Government Payrolls (September)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ ISM Services PMI (September)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/03)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (July)

·       Canada S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (September)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (September)

·       El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates National Foundation Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda gives a speech to a group of business leaders in Osaka.

·       Australia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (September)

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/26)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Germany celebrates the 35th anniversary of reunification.  French President Emmanuel Macron will join German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Saarbrucken to celebrate.

·       The Czech Republic holds elections for its Chamber of Deputies.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot, 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities', organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a panel discussion at farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot 'Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities' organized by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (September)

·       Russia S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       France Industrial Production (August)/ HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (September)/ PPI (September)

·       Spain HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)

·       Italy HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Germany HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ New Car Registrations (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Services & Composite PMI (September)/ PPI (August)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (August)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Services & Composite PMI (September)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Iraq's Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (September)

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (September)

Saturday, October 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Japanese Liberal Democratic Party holds its leadership elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Georgia will hold municipal elections to select mayors and members of local representative councils, the Sakrebulo.

·       Today in Germany is National Unity Day, celebrating German reunification.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Business Confidence (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Lesotho Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, October 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ will hold a virtual meeting to consider increased output of at least 137,000 bpd.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       South Korea celebrates Chuseok, the Korean Thanksgiving festival, through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK’s Conservative Party holds it annual conference in Manchester, running through Wednesday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syria will hold parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (September)

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Geopolitics of Trump’s War on Drugs, America Loves Cocaine Again,  What is Stablecoin?, How Many Manufacturing Jobs Will Tariffs Create, and The Growing Link Between Marriage, Fertility, and Partisanship

September 26 - 28, 2025

Each week, we gather up the best research and reports we have read in the past week and pass them on to you.  Below is this week’s curated collection.  We hope you find them interesting and informative, and that you have a great weekend.

The Geopolitics of Trump‘s War on Drug Cartels 

• The Wrong Way to Fight the Cartels    Ryan Berg/Foreign Affairs

  Since returning to the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged to defeat the Western Hemisphere’s violent drug traffickers by any means necessary. In a March address to Congress, Trump declared, “The cartels are waging war in America, and it’s time for America to wage war on the cartels.”  Washington has left behind its traditional conception of the fight against transnational criminal organizations as a matter of law enforcement with its threats of “war” and consideration of military action against the cartels.  A militarized approach may be a politically attractive way for Trump to project strength. And indeed, the United States can, and should, draw on many valuable lessons from the last two decades of counterterrorism missions during the “war on terror” in its campaign against the cartels. But there is a more productive path forward than drastically shifting the rules of engagement with transnational criminal groups.

• The Geopolitics of Trump’s War on Drugs     Americas Quarterly

  Half a century after former U.S. President Richard Nixon launched the war on drugs, global cocaine output and consumption are at record highs. According to the UN’s latest drug report, cocaine production jumped roughly a third in 2023 to over 3,700 tons, with usage rising to an estimated 25 million people. Over the past decade, narcotics supply chains have diversified, and demand has hardly blinked.   President Donald Trump’s second term has repackaged the drug war with sharper geopolitical edges. While fentanyl from Chinese sources seemed to be the president’s main focus during his campaign, the more traditional target of cocaine has lately become more prominent. Washington has pledged to “disrupt the supply chain from tooth to tail” and to “partner with – or otherwise hold accountable” source countries, language mirrored in the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) National Drug Threat Assessment 2024. 

•  America Loves Cocaine Again—Mexico’s New Drug King Cashes In    The Wall Street Journal

  Cocaine sold in the U.S. is cheaper and as pure as ever for retail buyers. Consumption in the western U.S. has increased 154% since 2019 and is up 19% during the same period in the eastern part of the country, according to the drug-testing company Millennium Health. In contrast, fentanyl use in the U.S. began to drop in mid-2023 and has been declining since, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  For new users, cocaine doesn’t carry the stigma of fentanyl addiction. Middle-class addicts and the tragic spectacle of homeless crack-cocaine users in the 1990s helped put a lid on America’s last cocaine epidemic.

Geoeconomics

• ‘Capital absorption’ is big in economic development. But what is it?   Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

  The term “capital absorption” is not well-known or easily understood. But it’s critical in the local economic development world, and I recently heard an analogy I think can help people understand it. Picture an irrigation system designed to direct the flow of money to the projects that need it most. Such a system frees communities from merely hoping that the unpredictable “rainfall” of funding falls in the right place. Instead, the system guarantees it gets there. That’s what capital absorption is. It’s coordination that helps local places absorb capital investments in the kinds of projects that can literally change what these places look like – things like child care centers, or housing, or downtown building renovations. Reliable systems are established and run by prepared partners to accept the funding when it appears and move it exactly where it’s needed, so the work can get done in ways that strengthen local economies.
  

• How Many Manufacturing Jobs Will Trump’s Tariffs Create? And at What Cost?    AEI Center for Technology, Science, Industry, and the State Project

  Secular decline in the share of manufacturing jobs in the labor force largely reflects the shift of consumer expenditures from goods to services. High tariffs cannot restore manufacturing jobs to the 27 percent share of the labor force experienced 60 years ago. Achieving Trump’s objective for eliminating the trade deficit in manufactures would require tariffs at least twice as high as those imposed through September 2025. The annual cost to American consumers of shifting each job from service employment to manufacturing employment through high tariffs exceeds $200,000.

•  What is a Stablecoin?      McKinsey & Company

  In the rapidly evolving world of digital assets, one innovation stands out for its potential to bring stability and reliability to the historically volatile blockchain-based currency market: the stablecoin. As the name suggests, a stablecoin is a type of digital currency designed to maintain a stable value. These digital currencies are pegged to a traditional fiat currency like the US dollar. Stablecoin use has increased significantly in recent years: In the past 18 months, the total market capitalization of stablecoins has more than doubled to $250 billion, from $120 billion, and industry forecasts expect it to reach up to $2 trillion by 2028. With major players like JPMorgan Chase experimenting with tokenized deposits and PayPal launching its own stablecoin, digital money is a major story in digital finance.  For individuals and organizations looking to capitalize on the benefits of blockchain-based transactions, what exactly is Stablecoin?

US Political & Social Trends

• The Growing Link Between Marriage, Fertility, And Partisanship   The Institute for Family Studies

  Conservative women born between 1975 and 1979—women who are finished having children—have a completed family size of 2.1, right at replacement. Moderate women in the same age group have 1.8 children, and liberal women just 1.5. Narrower gaps exist between conservatives born between 1985 and 1989, who have a completed fertility rate of 2.1, while moderates are at 1.9 and liberals 1.7. Conservative women born between 1995 and 1999 have, so far, only had 0.7 children, the same as moderates. Liberals in the same cohort average 0.4 so far. Differences between conservative and liberal women should not be overstated. Birthrates are lower for all groups when compared to the state of fertility before 1975. Marriage rates for all groups are lower, too. Yet the differences are large enough that the parties ultimately appeal to manifestly different constituencies.

•  It's Not Just You: Americans Are Still Not Hanging Out      Generation Tech

  The average American spent 38 minutes a day socializing in 2019 and 35 minutes in 2024. In 2024, for the first time, adults 50 and older spent (very slightly) more time socializing in person than teens and young adults. Young people’s social time is at an all-time low in the 21-year history of the survey. Fifteen- to 25-year-olds spend 26 fewer minutes a day socializing in person than they did in 2003. That’s three hours a week, 13 hours a month, and 158 hours a year less getting together with friends, having a face-to-face conversation, meeting for dinner, or chatting before seeing a movie together. No wonder so many more teens now describe themselves as lonely.

• Why do only humans weep? The evolutionary puzzle of crying     BigThink

  In an excerpt from Steven Pinker’s new book, When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows…, Pinker explains that crying is not just an expression of sadness but an evolved signal of surrender, helplessness, and a plea for comfort. However, tears can also mark moments of joy, compassion, and awe, reflecting the emotional opposites of the things that make us laugh.  The unique human capacity to weep may have evolved to strengthen social bonds and generate common knowledge regarding our inner states.
  

• If I Work Harder, Will You Love Me?    Arthur Brooks/The Atlantic

  Between teaching Harvard MBA students and speaking to a lot of business audiences, I’m often interacting with successful people who work extremely long hours. It’s common for me to hear about 13-hour workdays and seven-day workweeks, with few or no vacations. What I see among many of those I encounter is workaholism, a pathology characterized by continuing to work during discretionary time, thinking about work all the time, and pursuing job tasks well beyond what’s required to meet any need. Workaholics feel a compulsion to work even when they are already earning plenty of money and despite getting minimal enjoyment from doing so.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Government Lurches Toward a Shutdown as Congress Takes the Week Off, SEC Chair Atkins Begins to Outline Big Regulatory Overhaul,  and Fed Vice Chair Bowman to Speak on Regulatory Agenda

September 22 - 26, 2025

Congress is out of session this week for Rosh Hashanah and to conduct work from their home offices. Unfortunately, being out this week has substantially increased the likelihood of a government shutdown as of September 30th (we currently estimate the odds of a shutdown at 75 percent as of today).   

House and Senate Republicans and Democrat leaders really are not talking much about how to cobble together a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government running and, in talking to several Democratic staffers, it is clear Democratic leaders are almost at the point of welcoming a shutdown to make clear their opposition to the politically unpopular Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill as well as the upcoming cancellation of Obamacare tax credits. 

How long a shutdown could last is anyone's guess. The longest shutdown began on December 22nd, 2018, and lasted 35 days, concluding on January 25th, 2019. We will be updating clients on what we hear as we get close to the shutdown deadline.

Looking at last week, the big news was SEC Chair Paul Atkins' interview with Politico, where he made clear he was laying out the groundwork for a major regulatory rewrite.  It appears that it will include changes to quarterly reporting, something President Trump encouraged last week.  Atkins also championed moves to encourage more arbitration between investors and corporations and to move away from expensive and oftentimes frivolous class-action lawsuits.

Meanwhile, Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould announced a second reorganization of the agency, reversing a reorganization led by then-acting Comptroller Rodney Hood.  Industry groups cheered the move.

Also, last week, up on Capitol Hill, the House Financial Services Committee began outlining how it intends to reauthorize the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program as well as general flood insurance. The Senate Banking Committee is also expected to take on flood insurance this fall and is likely to make several changes to it. Interestingly, the National Flood Insurance Program has gone through 33 short-term reauthorizations and has not seen any changes over the past eight years.  There will likely be at least another short-term extension, as the program is set to expire on September 30th.

Looking at the week ahead, a large number of Federal Reserve Board governors and many of the regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents will be out giving speeches.  By our count, there are 14 speeches in total being given this week. But of particular note, Fed Chair Jay Powell is speaking on Tuesday about the economic outlook, while Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is speaking at the Kentucky Bankers Association. Bowman will also be giving another speech on Thursday in Washington on bank regulation, while her predecessor, Fed Governor Michael Barr, will be speaking on stress testing the same day, too.

And we would close out by noting the SEC has another very busy Thursday, almost as busy as last Thursday. SEC Chair Atkins will also be giving a speech on regulation.  And there is going to be a big SEC webinar on large bank compliance, then a Closed Meeting, all while a number of senior SEC enforcement officials will be speaking at the Securities Enforcement Forum Central 2025 conference in Chicago.

Below is a listing of all the rest of the major regulatory events in the coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       The US Senate is out of session this week for home state work.

House of Representatives

The House of Representatives is out of session this week for home district work.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Monday, September 22, 10:00 a.m. – St. Louise Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives a speech on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Monday, September 22, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran Non-Monetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.

·       Tuesday, September 23, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention (virtual).

·       Tuesday, September 23, 9:00 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before a Macro Musings podcast live recording.

·       Tuesday, September 23, 12:35 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.

·       Wednesday, September 24, 3:10 p.m. CT – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter.

·       Thursday, September 25, 7:20 a.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan"

·       Thursday, September 25, 9:00 a.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board.

·       Thursday, September 25, 9:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

·       Thursday, September 25, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on supervision and regulation at the at the Financial Markets Quality Conference 2025, Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, September 25, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation on bank stress testing at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

·       Thursday, September 25, 2:30 p.m. – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum.

·       Friday, September 26, 9:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Friday, September 26, 1:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Thursday, September 25, 8:30 a.m. – Several senior SEC enforcement officials will be speaking at the Securities Enforcement Forum Central 2025 conference in Chicago.

·       Thursday, September 25, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will host a compliance outreach webinar for large firms regarding the 2024 adoption of amendments to Regulation S-P.

·       Thursday, September 25, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

·       Thursday, September 25, 4:30 p.m. – SEC Chairman Paul Atkins will speak at the Georgetown University McDonough School of Business’ Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy holds its Financial Markets Quality Conference 2025 in Washington, D.C.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Wednesday, September 24, 6:00 p.m. Seoul – Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will provide keynote remarks at a Global Crypto Policy Symposium: Navigating Stablecoin Regulation for the Institutional Era.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

 Trade Associations

·       Thursday, September 25, 12:00 p.m. – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a virtual discussion on "Fiscal Guardrails: Global Debt Levels and Looming Government Spending Pressures."

·       Thursday,  September 25, 5:30 p.m. – The Urban Institute holds a discussion on "Untangling a Complex Problem: Preserving Housing Wealth for Vulnerable Owners through Technology and Estate Planning."

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Wednesday, September 24, 2:00 p.m. – The Bipartisan Policy Center holds a hybrid event entitled “Gaming Out the GSEs’ Exit from Conservatorship: Process, Policy, and Potential Pitfalls.”

·       Thursday, September 25 – The Georgetown University McDonough School of Business’ Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy holds its Financial Markets Quality Conference 2025 in Washington, D.C.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Global Week Ahead

Global Leaders Gather for the UN General Assembly, Canada, France, and the UK Recognize Palestinian Statehood, EU Defense Ministers Consider a “Drone Wall”, and Markets Brace for Global Flash PMIs and Lots of US Central Bank Speeches

September 21 - 28, 2025

New York will be the center of the geopolitical radar screen this coming week.  The United Nations General Assembly’s High-Level General Debate begins on Tuesday, the 80th anniversary meeting, and world leaders will descend on the Big Apple to deliver speeches.  But the truly big event at the UN this week will be the meeting on Palestinian statehood, co-sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia.   French President Emmanuel Macron will use the event to formally recognize a Palestinian State, following Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia in making the dramatic diplomatic policy move.  

The move by major Western nations calling for a two-state solution shows the growing divide between them and Israel as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to oversee military action in the Gaza Strip and reportedly is considering annexing the West Bank – all as the US and other countries continue to gain the freedom of the Israeli hostages held by Hamas.

Also happening on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly will be a meeting between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the UN Assembly.  The main issue they will discuss is efforts to secure a cease-fire in Ukraine, something Russian President Vladimir Putin has been resisting despite President Trump’s increasing threats of more stringent sanctions on Russian oil sales. Markets will be watching closely for any sign of a thaw that could delay Trump’s move toward stricter sanctions.

Overall, there are innumerable other meetings and conferences taking place on the sidelines of the Assembly.  You can find the schedule of when leaders are speaking here, and for a listing of all the other meetings and conferences taking place, you can find them here.

While all this is going on, EU Defense Ministers will be meeting in Latvia to discuss the spike in Russian drone and fighter jet incursions into NATO airspace. The Ministers will consider creating a layered defense system of drones, radar, jamming stations, and other precision weapons to prevent future Russian incursions. The meeting is another sign of the growing tensions between European NATO members and Moscow as Russian President Putin grows either more aggressive or more reckless - or both - in his provocations of NATO.

Looking at the global financial and economic radar screen this week, the big event for markets will be the global flash PMI reports for any signs of growing inflation.  In the Americas, markets will be listening closely to Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech on Tuesday and watching for a number of key reports, including new home sales on Wednesday, existing home sales and durable goods orders on Thursday, and the August PCE print is out on Friday. 

However, we would also note that this is going to be a hectic week for Fed governors “speechifying” – 14 Federal Reserve Board Governors and regional Fed presidents will be speaking in total.  And in Canada, Reserve Bank Governor Tiff Macklin will give a speech and hold a press conference this week, too.  And in Mexico, the Central Bank will meet on interest rates.

Looking at Europe, the European Central Bank releases its August consumer expectation survey on Friday.  Germany’s Ifo survey is out on Wednesday, and consumer confidence surveys for Germany and France are out on Thursday.

Finally, in Asia, Japan releases September CPI figures on Friday, and China releases August inflation data on Wednesday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Belize Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

·       Today is Armenia's Independence Day.

·       Today is Malta Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Global Africa Business Initiative (GABI) will convene the 4th edition of Unstoppable Africa, on the sidelines of the 80th Session of the UN General Assembly at the Marriott Marquis Hotel in Mid-Town Manhattan, New York. 

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum on whether to establish a new constitution replacing the one approved in 2020 and mark the first step towards civilian rule.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 22, 2025

Global

·       At the United Nations, the 2nd World Summit on Palestine Statehood, bringing together numerous heads of state and sponsored by France and Saudi Arabia, will attempt to revive the long-stalled “two-State solution” to establish a Palestinian state and the “two-state solution.”  France is expected to join Canada, Great Britain, and other countries in recognizing a Palestinian state.

·       At the United Nations, the High-level Meeting to Commemorate the 80th Anniversary of the United Nations will take place. This one-hour meeting will mark the 80th anniversary of the establishment of the United Nations, with UN officials and Heads of State and Government reflecting on the achievements of the past eight decades and the path ahead for a more inclusive and responsive multilateral system. 

· The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency holds a meeting in Vienna, Austria.

·       Rosh Hashana – the Jewish New Year -  commemorations begin.

·       The Autum Equinox happens in the Northern Hemisphere (Summer is now officially over and its autumn).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US House and Senate are out of session this week.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       St. Louise Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem gives a speech on the outlook for the US economy and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Stephen I. Miran Non-Monetary Forces and Appropriate Monetary Policy at the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates virtually in panel before the “Monetary Policy Frameworks: Recent Developments and Outlook An International Comparative View" event organized by the Bank for International Settlements, European Central Bank and SUERF.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on “The Fed's Role in the Economy and Impact on Everyday Life" before a "Fed Talk" event.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks virtually on the economy before the Howard County (Maryland) Chamber of Commerce.

·       Canada PPI (August)/ Raw Materials Prices (August)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (July)/ Imports (July)

·       Paraguay PPI (August)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (August)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party will begin a two-week leadership contest, with the vote to be held on October. 4. Though the LDP does not have a majority in the Diet, Japan's parliament, it is by far the largest party, so the new leader is most likely to become the next prime minister.

·       Malaysia will host the 57th ASEAN Economic Ministers' Meeting and related sessions this year in Kuala Lumpur as the bloc's chair, with the summit running through Friday alongside the RCEP Ministers' Meeting. Officials will also hold consultations with dialogue partners, including U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the European Union trade chief, to review market access, regional supply chains and the rules-based trading system.

·       Reforms to India's complex consumption taxes will kick in as Prime Minister Narendra Modi tries to spur domestic consumption in a slowing economy. Under the reforms, most goods and services will be taxed in two tiers of 5% and 18%, with the government abolishing the 12% and 28% brackets. The reforms come just ahead of the crucial festive season between October and December, when Indians engage in the bulk of their yearly shopping.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock delivers the semi-annual testimony to a parliamentary panel in Canberra.

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through September 23 in Brussels.  The EU Commission will present its proposals for the common agricultural policy (CAP) post-2027, and agriculture ministers will have the opportunity to hold a first policy debate on the future CAP.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the United Nations.  Later, she will deliver a speech at the Global Renewables Summit and then participate in at the high-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-States.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey participates in a fireside chat at the London School of Economics.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a policy panel at BIS-ECB-SUERF high-level online workshop on Monetary policy frameworks: recent developments and outlook – an international comparative view.

·       European Central Bank Board Member  José Luis Escrivá speaks at an event in Madrid.

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (September)/ Central Government Debt (August)

·       Poland Retail Sales (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

·       Slovenia Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Slovakia Unemployment Rate (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (August)

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (September)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Mali Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Global

·       The UN General Assembly begins in New York and runs through September 29th.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a high-level briefing on the situation of the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question.  Later, the Council is scheduled to hold a High-Level briefing on Maintenance of peace and security of Ukraine.

·       The OECD releases its Interim Economic Outlook Report for the global economy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump will address the UN General Assembly.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will host an event on Russia's abduction of children at the fringes of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

·       The Third Annual CAF / UNDP Conference on Governance for Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Critical Natural Resources for Sustainable Development will be held at the United Nations.

·       Ecuadorian unions will march in Quito over the government's elimination of a diesel subsidy. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon, Warwick, Rhode Island.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will give a speech on the Economic Outlook at the 134th Annual Kentucky Bankers Association Convention (virtual).

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before a Macro Musings podcast live recording.

·       Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks in Saskatoon, followed by a press conference.

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Mexico Economic Activity (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (August)

·       USA Current Account Q2/ Redbook (September/20)/ S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (September)/Money Supply (August)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/19)

·       Argentina Retail Sales (July)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Micron Technology, Costco, Autozone

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will host the Euro-Asia Economic Forum (under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) in Xi'an through September  25.

·       The Fifth Asia Finance Forum, hosted by the Asian Development Bank, begins in Manila, Philippines.

·       Jakarta and Brussels will sign the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Bali. The pact is expected to boost Indonesia's exports by over twofold, from a current trade value of around $30 billion. The deal comes after negotiations that spanned a decade, which concluded successfully in July.

·       The S-Tron Conference begins in Shanghai.  The two-day startup event allows start-up founders to pitch business plans they hope will become the next big thing.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japanese financial markets are closed for the Autumn Equinox.

·       South Korea PPI (August)

·       Australia S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (August)

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (August)

·       India HSBC Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Singapore Inflation Rate (August)

·       Taiwan Export Orders (August)

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat and panel discussion at the Financial Market Authority's 16th annual supervisory conference in Vienna, Austria.

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill participates in a discussion at the Inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium in Geneva, Switzerland.

·       Switzerland Current Account Q2

·       France HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Germany HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (July)

·       Great Britain S&P Global HCOB Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (September)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (September)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (July)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on maintenance of international peace and security: Artificial Intelligence and international peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks on the economic outlook before the annual Spencer Fox Eccles Convocation presented by the National Association of Corporate Directors, Utah Chapter.

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/19)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/19)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/19)/ New Home Sales (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/19)/Building Permits (August)

·       Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (September)

·       Chile PPI (August)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (August)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (July)

·       EARNINGS: KB Home, Cintas

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Japan S&P Global Composite/ Services/ Manufacturing PMI Flash (September)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

·       Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (August)/ RBA Payments System Board Annual

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Index (July)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (August)

·       Thailand New Car Sales (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen delivers a speech at the United Nations Climate Summit 2025.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat at Bloomberg's Future of Finance conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives opening remarks at the Supervision Innovators Conference 2025 'AI in action: Shaping the future of banking and banking supervision' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Member Megan Greene gives a speech at the Glasgow Business School on “Supply Shocks and Monetary Policy.”

·       European Central Bank Non-Monetary Policy Meeting

·       Spain PPI (August)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (September)/ Capacity Utilization (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Germany Ifo Business Climate (September)/ Ifo Current Conditions (September)/ Ifo Expectations (September)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (September)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion/ Corporate Profits (July)/ Industrial Production (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, September 25, 2025

Global

·       The World Bank/ODI Conference on Global Finance begins in London, where researchers and practitioners will discuss frontier research on public finance, with a focus on low and middle-income countries.

·       BP launches an annual Energy Outlook, looking at the long-term trends and projections for global oil and gas markets to 2050.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will host Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Washington for talks.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr participates in a conversation on bank stress testing at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid speaks about monetary policy and the economic and banking outlook at the Mid-Sized Bank Coalition of America in Dallas.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before Crain's Power Lunch, "The Fed and the Economy: Trends for West Michigan.”

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives welcome remarks before the Fourth Annual International Roles of the U.S. Dollar Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Federal Reserve Board.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in conversation before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2025 Western Bankers Forum.

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (September)

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/20)/ Wholesale Inventories (August)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Sales Q2/ Existing Home Sales (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/24)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (July)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       EARNINGS: Accenture, CarMax

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Tokyo Game Show will be held for four days through September 28 at the Makuhari Messe convention center east of Tokyo. First held in 1996, it is one of the world's leading game events.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes are released.

·       Taiwan Retail Sales (August)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (August)/ CBI Distributive Trades (September)

·       The European Central Bank releases its Economic Bulletin

·       EU New Car Registrations (August)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (October)

·       Hungary Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)

·       France Consumer Confidence (September)

·       Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August)

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (August)

·       Greece Total Credit (August)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Consumer Confidence Q3/ PPI (August)

Friday, September 26, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin participates in a conversation with Roger Ferguson at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Approach to Monetary Policy Decision-Making” at the Cornell Club of New York, New York City, New York.

·       Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (August)

·       Canada GDP (July)/ Wholesale Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (July)

·       USA PCE Price Index (August)/ Personal Income & Spending (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/26)

·       Uruguay Unemployment Rate (August)

·       Paraguay GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Panama Current Account Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·        The Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) will be held at the United Nations.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The HKIB Annual Banking Conference is held in Hong Kong with Financial Secretary Paul Chan giving an opening keynote address.

·       South Korea Business Confidence (September)

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence

·       Japan Tokyo CPI (September)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/20)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/20)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (August)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (August)

·       Philippines Business Confidence Q3/ Consumer Confidence Q3

·       India Bank Loan Growth (September/12)/ Deposit Growth (September/12)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/19)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Latvia hosts a two-day NATO military committee conference beginning in Riga.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the joint ECB-CEPR-Bocconi conference hosted by the University of Bocconi in Milan, Italy.

·       Spain GDP Growth Rate Q2

·       Italy Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)

·       ECB Consumer Inflation Expectation

·       France Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Turkmenistan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Gabon holds national assembly elections.

·       The Seychelles holds presidential and parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 28, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Moldova holds parliamentary elections.

·       Switzerland holds referendums on whether to accept a new version of a national electronic identity (e-ID) scheme, and separately a constitutional amendment to allow cantons to tax second homes for personal use.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (July)

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

Assessing the EU’s Defense Sector Build-Up, New Studies on the Economic Impact of Trump’s Tariffs, China’s “Anti-Involution” Campaign, and Russia’s Shrewd Focus on Africa 

September 19 - 21, 2025

Each week, we gather up the best research and reports we have read in the past week and pass them on to you.  Below is this week’s curated collection.  We hope you find them interesting and informative, and that you have a great weekend.

The Growth of the EU’s Defense Sector

• Progress and Shortfalls in Europe’s Defense: An Assessment    International Institute for Strategic Studies

  This IISS Strategic Dossier examines important capability areas that European allies need to address in order to reduce their vulnerabilities and overdependence on the US. The aim is to identify existing gaps and challenges but also note where progress has already been made towards a situation where adequate capabilities for the defense of Europe are provided by Europeans in a more autonomous way, while still working with partners and allies.

• Defense Expenditures of NATO Countries (2014 – 2025)        NATO

  NATO collects defense expenditure data from Allies and publishes it on a regular basis. Each Ally’s Ministry of Defence reports current and estimated future defense expenditure according to an agreed definition. The amounts represent payments by a national government that have been or will be made during the course of the fiscal year to meet the needs of its armed forces, those of Allies or of the Alliance. In the figures and tables that follow, NATO also uses economic and demographic information available from the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission (DG ECFIN), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). In view of differences between these sources and national GDP forecasts, and also the definition of NATO defense expenditure and national definitions, the figures shown in this report may considerably diverge from those that are referenced by media, published by national authorities or given in national budgets. Equipment expenditure includes expenditure on major equipment as well as on research and development devoted to major equipment. Personnel expenditure includes pensions paid to retirees. The cut-off date for information used in this report was 3 June 2025. Figures for 2024 and 2025 are estimates.

• The EU’s Road to Economic Security De-Risking, Strategic Investments and Critical Partnerships   Italian Institute for International Political Studies

  The European Union has redefined its strategic priorities through three phases: the rise of geoeconomics, the structuring of de-risking, and its current testing in a shifting global context. Geoeconomics exposed the link between economy, security, and power, driven by US and Chinese strategies to weaponize industrial assets and by renewed geopolitical rivalry. Europe’s dependence on critical raw materials, especially Chinese rare earths, accelerated the push for strategic autonomy. Since 2021, with the European Economic Security Strategy, the Chips Act, and the Critical Raw Materials Act, Brussels has pursued de-risking as diversification rather than decoupling, focusing on semiconductors, green technologies, and critical minerals. Yet US, Japanese, and South Korean industrial policies show de-risking is a broader challenge. The EU must now deliver concrete results, combining competitiveness and resilience with multilateral cooperation. How can Europe secure adequate resources to meet these goals? And how can it balance industrial autonomy with global partnerships?

China’s Competitiveness Challenge

• China Wants to Integrate AI Into 90 Percent of Its Economy by 2030. It Won’t Work.   Carnegie Emissary

  Recently, Beijing debuted its latest strategy for winning the AI race. China’s powerful State Council laid out an ambitious vision to rapidly diffuse AI into six key areas, ranging from accelerating scientific research and development to improving governance capacity. The plan sets striking, concrete targets that include deploying a range of applications across 90 percent of wide swaths of its economy in just five years. China’s latest plan is part of a broader strategic bet. The PRC thinks it can integrate AI throughout its society to turbocharge its economy and secure AI leadership. It’s a playbook the country has used before. During the mid-2010s, China transformed its digital economy by diffusing internet applications throughout what Beijing calls the “real economy.”  But this time could be very different. Chinese leadership is confident in its AI development, but—perhaps counterintuitively—investors are not. China’s venture capital ecosystem is dry at this critical moment for AI, and as a result, Beijing’s aspirations are likely to fall short of the whole-of-society economic transformation the party wants. U.S. policymakers should mostly ignore China’s aspirational rhetoric and focus on what it can achieve in practice.  

• Involution and Industry Self-Discipline: Echoes from the Past    Center for Strategic and International Studies

  No doubt the word of the year in China is “involution.” The term in Chinese really did not exist prior to 2020, but its use has exploded since, particularly in 2025. When the Chinese term first emerged in popular culture in China a few years ago, the initial application was to Chinese students and young people trapped in highly competitive schools and jobs that brought little personal fulfillment, with immense efforts and sacrifices that to many seemed ultimately meaningless, a feeling made more acute by the arrival of the pandemic. This led many to respond by giving up on their ambitions and “lying flat”, which has also been a source of much social debate.   

  In 2025, involution now refers specifically to the widespread phenomenon of continued massive expansion of production in sector after sector, despite any semblance of sufficient domestic demand to absorb these goods. Chinese officialdom has vociferously rebutted charges by foreign governments that China has been suffering from “overcapacity.  As part of this retort, it has been argued that industrial policy and subsidies are not the source of China’s industrial strength, but rather high quality and competitiveness. As a result, governments around the world are wrong to impose any restrictions on Chinese exports.  But while China is rebuffing international charges of overcapacity, it has opened the doors to a domestic debate about involution and how to tackle it. Hence, the emergence of a highly public conversation about “anti-involution policy, a catch-phrase which has also spread like wildfire.

 Updates on Global Trade Wars

• Markets shrug off trade conflicts    Bank for International Settlements

  In a new study, BIS found that global financial markets maintained a risk-on tone during the review period, shrugging off concerns over mounting tariff and policy uncertainty. Despite short-lived bouts of volatility triggered by incoming data and political developments, market sentiment remained upbeat, defying mounting challenges, including unease over the longer-run fiscal outlook in several key jurisdictions. Short-term bonds priced in greater policy easing, but long-term yields stayed high and yield curves steepened at the very long end on fiscal and inflation concerns.  Emerging market assets saw gains, benefiting from the risk-on environment and the weakening of the US dollar.

• The Trump Shock That Wasn’t (At Least Not Yet)   Brad Setser/Council on Foreign Relations

  President Trump’s tariffs have been a profound shock to the global trade rules.  They have generated enormous volatility in measured trade flows. But so far the volatility has essentially come from pharmaceuticals and gold (including gold bars, or imports of “metal forms”). The impact of the tariffs core trade flows—and hence the global economy—has been modest, at least so far. 

• Tariffs, Manufacturing Employment, and Supply Chains    Joseph Steinberg/NBER

  Abstract: I use a dynamic general-equilibrium model with supply-chain adjustment frictions to study the effects of tariffs on manufacturing employment. The model has four distinct manufacturing sectors: upstream goods with high trade elasticities (“oil”); upstream goods with low trade elasticities (“steel”); downstream goods with high trade elasticities (“toys”); and downstream goods with low trade elasticities (“cars”). I find that tariffs can increase overall manufacturing employment in the long run, but are likely to reduce it in the short run, and cause more reallocation of workers across these individual sectors than overall employment growth.

Russian Foreign Policy 

• Russia is Shrewdly Playing the Long Game in Africa    War on the Rocks

  What if Moscow’s most dangerous moves right now aren’t in Europe, but along the Gulf of Guinea? With its resources sunk deep into Ukraine, the Russian military has weighed carefully whether and when to engage elsewhere, standing aside amid recent conflicts in the South Caucasus and Middle East. An exception to this pattern of inaction is in West Africa. After the failed mutiny of Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in June 2023, the Russian government established a new paramilitary group called Africa Corps, tethered closely to the military chain of command. The unit then progressively took over most of Wagner’s operations in Africa and expanded into Burkina Faso and Niger. It now seems to be eyeing a presence in Benin and Togo next. These activities suggest that Russia is seeking a West African foothold on which to build once an end to the war on Ukraine frees up additional conventional military forces. Russia may then try to further extend Africa Corps’ presence.

• The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure    IISS

  Russia is waging an unconventional war on Europe. Through its campaign of sabotage, vandalism, espionage and covert action, Russia’s aim has been to destabilize European governments, undermine public support for Ukraine by imposing social and economic costs on Europe, and weaken the collective ability of NATO and the European Union to respond to Russian aggression. This unconventional war began to escalate in 2022 in parallel to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Russia has so far failed to achieve its primary aim, European capitals have struggled to respond to Russian sabotage operations and have found it challenging to agree a unified response, coordinate action, develop effective deterrence measures and impose sufficient costs on the Kremlin. IISS has created the most comprehensive open-source database of suspected and confirmed Russian sabotage operations targeting Europe. The data reveals Russian sabotage has been aimed at Europe’s critical infrastructure, is decentralized and, despite European security and intelligence officials raising the alarm, is largely unaffected by NATO, EU and member state responses to date.

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Makes 2nd State Visit to the UK, US-China Trade Talks Start Up Again, Qatar Holds Emergency Summit Following Israeli Attack,  and Multiple Central Banks Decide Rates This Week

September 14 - 21, 2025

This week, the most significant geopolitical events with market implications will be in Europe.  President Trump will travel to London this week for his second official state visit, which will involve a white tie dinner with King Charles.  For UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who is still reeling from having to fire his Ambassador to the US, Peter Mandelson, this past week for his close ties to Jeffrey Epstein, it is a high-stakes meeting as he seeks a deal on British steel and aluminum products, which are currently subject to 25% US tariffs.

Just prior to the UK meetings, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid to discuss trade and mutual security matters.  Specifically, Bessent will discuss the US threat to impose tough new sanctions on any country purchasing Russian oil.  Considering China is one of the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, these meetings will be crucial for markets trying to gauge the future of oil prices.  Bessent is also going to press China to buy more US agricultural products, especially soybeans.  Chinese purchases of American soybeans have plummeted, putting US farmers in tough economic straits.

Also this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Israel’s plans for Gaza and the overall situation in the Middle East following Israel’s attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar.   While he is in Israel, the Qatari’s are holding an emergency meeting of Arab leaders to discuss how best to respond to Israel’s bombing strike. 

Closer to home, we will be watching as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with President Claudia Sheinbaum.  The two leaders are expected to discuss not only mutual trade issues but also how to better respond to President Trump’s ongoing tariffs on both countries.

Here in Washington DC this week, we expect Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran to be confirmed Monday (or perhaps early Tuesday) for an open seat on the Federal Reserve Board which will give him the ability to participate in this week’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FMOC) meeting on interest rates – a sure vote for lowering interest rates by at least 25 basis points with Miran likely pushing for a 50-basis point cut.

This brings us to the global economic and financial radar screen for the coming week.  It is a big week for central bank meetings on interest rates.  The Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Brazil, the Central Bank of Norway, Taiwan’s central bank, and several other central banks are all meeting this week on interest rates.

Looking at major economic releases this week, in the US, the key reports scheduled for Wednesday include August retail sales data, industrial production, and housing starts.

In Europe, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will be speaking several times.  Germany releases the ZEW survey on Tuesday and PPI data on Friday, while in the UK, August inflation data, labor market data, retail sales, and consumer confidence are reported out this week.

And in Asia, China’s August economic data is out on Monday, including industrial output and August retail sales.  Japan releases CPI data on Friday. 

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, September 14, 2025

Global 

·       Today is the 65th anniversary of the founding of OPEC.

·       Today is Pope Leo XIV’s 70th birthday. 

Americas 

Political/Social Events – 

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to Israel for meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.  Rubio will then go on to London to join President Trump for meetings with UK officials.

·       US and Chinese officials began a new series of talks in Madrid, Spain on trade and the US’ threat of sanctions on China for buying Russian oil.  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will also discuss boosting US agricultural sales to China.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Asia 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Macau holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       India Passenger Vehicles Sales (August) 

Europe 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia region holds local elections.  The far-right AfD Party is expected to make significant gains. 

·       Russia holds regional elections for 21 gubernatorial elections and 11 regional parliamentary elections.

·       Russia and Belarus will conduct the strategic military exercise Zapad-2025 through September 16.

·       The  International Motor Show Germany (IAA) 2025 begins in Munich, Germany.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East 

Political/Social Events – 

·       Qatar will host an emergency Arab-Islamic summit in Doha, Qatar, though September 15 in response to Israel's Sept. 9 attack on Hamas leadership in Doha. . 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Inflation Rate (August) 

Africa 

Political/Social Events – 

·       South Africa dispatched trade officials to Washington, D.C., for talks with the Trump administration on tariffs. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events – 

·       Angola M3 Money Supply (August) 

Monday, September 15, 2025

Global

·       The OECD hosts its Global Forum on Productivity Conference in Paris, France.

·       The BRICS Traditional Values Forum begins in Brasilia, Brazil and runs through September 17

·       The BRICS 1st National Public Health Institute Conference begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through September 17.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen). 

·       The 69th IAEA General Conference will be held in Vienna, Austria through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Argentina’s President Javier Milei's official visit to Paraguay.

·       Canada’s Parliament returns to work following its summer break.

·       Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran is expected to be confirmed to become a Federal Reserve Board Governor.

·       The US Navy and Marine Corps will host UNITAS 2025, a military exercise off the coast of Florida and along the east coast of the US.  26 nations will participate including Argentina, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Italy, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Jamaica, Japan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Singapore, Spain, and the United States.

·       Canada Post mail carriers are expected to escalate strike activity by stopping flyers and neighborhood mail deliveries.

·       The Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies (AMOS) kicks off their annual conference in Maui, Hawaii.

·       The Beyond Earth Institute hosts a webinar to discuss “Navigating the New Space Policy Landscape: What the Latest Executive Order Means for Your Business.”

·       Today is Costa Rica's Independence Day, a national holiday.

·       Today is Guatemala's Independence Day, a national holiday

·       Today is Honduras’ Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Wholesale Sales (July)

·       USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index/ NOPA Crush Report

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The United States, South Korea and Japan will hold the trilateral Freedom Edge military exercises off South Korea’s southern island of Jeju through September 19.

·       Today is Respect for the Aged Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China House Price Index (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ FDI (YTD) (August)

·       Singapore Unemployment Rate Q2

·       India WPI Food Index (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Health Ministers through September 16 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

·       A delegation of eight MEPs will speak to travel to Washington, DC to meet with members of Congress lawmakers and law enforcement officials through September 18.

·       NovaSpace kicks off their annual World Space Business Week in Paris, France.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde participates in a ‘Conversations pour demain’ on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of Institut Montaigne in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a keynote speech at the EIB Chief economists meeting in Luxembourg, Luxembourg.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (August)

·       Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts/ Balance of Trade (July)

·       Italy Balance of Trade (July)

·       Turkey Auto Production & Sales (August)/ Budget Balance (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Syrian electoral bodies select members of new transitional parliament.

·       A Turkish court is expected to rule on a case that could remove the main opposition party leader, Ozgur Oze, from office due to procedural irregularities in the party’s 2023 congress. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Expectations Q3

Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump arrives in London for meetings with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well as for a dinner with King Charles. Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will join Trump.  The UK is hoping to break the deadlock over long-delayed quotas to lower tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S.

·       The Southern Common Market (Mercosur) will sign a free trade agreement with the EU on Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· Mexico will celebrate its Independence Day with a military parade planned in Mexico City. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FMOC) begin two days of meetings on the economy and interest rates.

·       Brazil Unemployment Rate (July)

·       Canada Housing Starts (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Median (August)

·       USA Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Redbook (September/13)/ Capacity Utilization (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Business Inventories (July)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/12)/ International Monetary Market (IMM)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Independence Day in Papau New Guinea, a national holiday.

·       Malaysia will celebrate Malaysia Day, marking its independence. 

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Export Prices (August)/ Import Prices (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter leads a fireside chat at the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney.

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will meet with his Austrian, Slovenian, and Polish counterparts on the capitals of each country.

·       The EU General Affairs Council will meet in Brussels. The Council will start preparations for the October 23-24 2025 European Council by discussing an annotated draft agenda. In public session, the Commission will present a letter of intent on legislative programming and ministers will hold an exchange of views.  As part of the Council’s annual rule of law dialogue, ministers will hold in public session a horizontal discussion on general developments related to the rule of law situation in the EU. Ministers will also exchange views on the general trend of the rule of law situation in selected candidate countries, namely Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. Ministers from the four candidate countries will take part in the discussion.

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will host a conference entitled “One Year After the Draghi Report” in Brussels.  She along with Mario Draghi will deliver the opening keynote speeches.

·       The 6th Accession Conference with Albania will take place in Brussels.  The meeting will serve to open negotiations with Albania on Cluster 4 ‘Green agenda and sustainable connectivity’, including Chapters 14 (transport policy), 15 (energy), 21 (trans-European networks), and 27 (environment and climate change).

·       Ukraine holds Defence Tech Valley 2025 in Lviv, Ukraine.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Unemployment Rate (July)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (August)/ Claimant Count Change (August)

·       Italy Inflation Rate (August)

·       Euro Area Industrial Production (July)/ ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

·       Germany Labour Cost Index Q2/ Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Malawi holds general elections for president and parliament.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA).  

·       The World Trade Organization holds its annual Public Forum through September 18.

·       The  International Congress on Advances in Nuclear Power Plants meets in Antibes, France through September 19.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The congressionally mandated deadline for Bytedance to sell TikTok to non-Chinese buyers arrives again (unless President Trump gives it another extension, which he is expected to do).

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announces interest rate decision followed a by Press Conference held by Fed Chair Jay Powell/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/12)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/12)/ Building Permits (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (September/12)/ Fed Interest Rate Decision/

·       Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (July)

·       Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Leading Indicator (August)

·       The Central Bank of Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China hosts the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, with military personnel and scholars expected to deliberate on regional security issues and cooperation. The three-day event is set to draw delegates from more than 100 countries and comes on the heels of a recent military parade in Beijing.

·       Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee will deliver his annual policy address, in which he will talk about plans to steer the city's economy. Analysts are watching for a potential stamp duty cut on residential property purchases, while another topic may be efforts to attract more visitors from mainland China to help struggling local retailers.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Singapore           Non-Oil Exports (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (August)

·       Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Brad Jones hosts a fireside chat at the Intersekt 2025 Conference in Melbourne.

·       Indonesia Loan Growth (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       India M3 Money Supply (September/05)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Commission is expected to unveil its proposal for the 19th round of Sanctions on Russia.

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to speak about Ukraine offensive to foreign envoys at round table in Moscow.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives opening remarks at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference, jointly with Stanford's Hoover Institution, on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board member Piero Cipollone participates in the Associazione Bancaria Italiana's Executive Committee meeting (virtual).  Later in the day, he gives the keynote speech at the  De Nederlandsche Bank's Resilience Conference in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel gives a speech on the German economy in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       The Eurofi Financial Forum 2025 will take place in Copenhagen through September 19.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Price Index (August)

·       Euro Area Deposit Facility Rate (September)/ Lending Facility Rate (September)/ CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

·       Russia PPI (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

The Pan- African Global Trade & Investment Conference begins in Newark, New Jersey and runs through September 20.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Olympic Committee Executive Board begins a two-day meeting in Milan, Italy.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney travels to Mexico for meetings with Mexican President Clauda Sheinbaum.  Trade will be the dominant issue discussed and how to deal with US tariffs.

·       Today is Chile Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Business Roundtable is expected to release its quarterly CEO economic outlook for the U.S.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (September)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (September/13)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (September)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (September)/ CB Leading Index (August)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/18)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (July)/ Foreign Bond Investment (July)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (July)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/17)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

·       Earnings: FedEx, Darden Restaurants, M&C Saatchi

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Taipei Aerospace & Defense Technology Exhibition begins in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Japan Machinery Orders (July)

·       Australia Employment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Environmental Council will meet in Brussels will hold a policy debate on a proposal to amend the European climate law to establish a binding intermediate climate target for 2040.  The proposal introduces a target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. It also outlines key elements and conditions that the European Commission must reflect in its legislative proposals for the post-2030 policy framework to enable member states to achieve the 2040 target.

·       All major French unions – including air traffic controllers – will join in nationwide strikes and demonstrations against austerity measures expected in the 2026 budget. in France are expected to go on strike.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       The Bank of England Interest Rate Decision is announced and meeting minutes released.

·       European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives a  video message at the opening plenary of 1st edition of Global Leadership by Women Summit in Marseille, France.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will participate on a panel 'Noisy Experts? Discretion in Regulation' at 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos participates in a livestreamed MNI Connect discussion entitled 'Euro Area Growth and Inflation Outlook' in London, United Kingdom.

·       European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a policy panel 'The Next Financial Crisis?' at the 10th ECB Annual Research Conference joint with Stanford's Hoover Institution on 'The Next Financial Crisis?' in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel joins the panel on Europe and Germany in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Liz Oakes, an external member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England, gives a keynote speech at the Cross Market Operational Resilience Group 2025 conference.

§  Vicky White, director, prudential policy, at the Bank of England, gives a speech at the Bank of America annual CEO conference.

·       Euro area Current Account (July)/ Construction Output (July)

·       Italy Current Account (July)

·       Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

·       Russia Consumer Confidence Q3

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

Friday, September 19, 2025

Global

·       The United Nations Human Rights Council discusses Nicaragua.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly speaks at an AI event in San Francisco, California.

·       Mexico Aggregate Demand Q2/ Private Spending Q2

·       Canada Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales (August)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (September)

·       USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (September/19)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan policy meeting on interest rates/Japan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Bond Investment (September/13)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/13

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/12)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup will meet in Copenhagen, Denmark.  The finance ministers will discuss the Eurogroup work program until June 2026.  They will also discuss recent economic developments including an exchange of views with the Chair of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Economic and Financial Affairs Ministers through September 20 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner will participate on a panel discussion at EUROFI Financial Forum in Copenhagen, Denmark.  Later in the day, Board Member Anneli Tuominen will also participate on a panel discussion.

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Public Sector Net Borrowing (August)

·       Germany PPI (August)

·       France Business Confidence (September)/ Business Climate Indicator (September)

·       Italy Construction Output (June)/ Construction Output (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (September)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The UK Liberal Democrat party conference begins in the south coast seaside town of Bournemouth, ending on September 23.

·       The 190th Oktoberfest beer festival formally begins in Munich, Germany and runs through October 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Guinea holds a constitutional referendum to replace the constitution that was approved in 2020.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 21, 2025

Global

·       Climate Week 2025 formally begins in New York City.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, together with António Costa, President of the European Council,  will meet with António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations and João Lourenço, Chairperson of the African Union.  Later in the day, she and Costa will meet with António Guterres.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

US. Regulatory Week Ahead

Miran Likely to be Confirmed for Fed Seat on Monday,  CFTC Nominee Points Finger at Who is Holding Up His Confirmation, SEC Has A Busy Thursday, and What Did FSOC Do Last Week?

September 15 - 19, 2025

A lot is going on this coming week in the regulatory space in Washington.  The SEC is holding a roundtable, an investor advisory committee meeting, and a closed meeting on Thursday alone – and that comes the day after holding an Open Meeting to consider three new rule changes. 

But first, we would note that Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said this week he intends to hold a confirmation vote on Monday for Stephan Miran, enabling him to be seated for the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Beyond wanting lower interest rates, Miran is seen as a strong supporter of Fed Vice Chair Michele Bowman’s deregulatory agenda. 

While Miran’s confirmation seems set, another of President Trump’s regulatory nominees appears to be flailing – that being Brian Quintenz to be the next Chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).  The Senate Agriculture Committee was set to hold a confirmation vote before the August recess, but the White House mysteriously asked the Committee to hold up, and no new vote has been scheduled.  Quintenz, meanwhile, has gone on the offensive, blaming the Winklevoss twins for his confirmation being held up.  Specifically, Quintenz said the brothers had reached out to President Trump to urge him to pull Quintenz’s nomination.  No one has confirmed this actually happened, but it is pretty clear now that Quintenz’s nomination is in real trouble, and rumors are flying around Washington that the White House is now quietly making calls looking for a new CFTC Chair nominee.

Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) last week.  There were two things of note about the meeting: First, sitting in the meeting was Federal Housing Finance Authority Director William Pulte – the first sighting of Pulte in the same room with Bessent since it was reported that Bessent and he recently came close to a fist-fight at a private dinner.  Bessent, having learned that Pulte had been bad-mouthing him to President Trump, threatened to punch him in the face, dared him to “step outside,” and tried to get him thrown out of the dinner.   No fists were thrown at the FSOC meeting.

Instead, FSOC discussed and agreed upon priorities for the coming year, including their “intention to review its guidance related to nonbank financial company determinations under section 113 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and the Council’s analytic framework for financial stability risks.  “  They also voted to dissolve two Biden-era committees that focused on climate change as a risk to the US financial system.

Finally, the Senate Banking Committee held an interesting hearing on deposit insurance to push legislation to expand federal government deposit guarantees.  Both Committee Chair Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and Ranking Minority Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have reportedly been discussing how to expand the deposit insurance program and seem determined to make it happen.

Below are all the other major events we are watching this coming week.  Please let us know if you have any questions. 

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, September 16, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will mark-up eleven separate pieces of legislation (see list HERE).

·       Tuesday, September 16, 10:00 a.m. – The House Small Business Committee holds a hearing on "Pathway to Capital: The Role of SBA Lending in Supporting Main Street America."

·       Tuesday and Wednesday, September 16 – 17 – The Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute holds its leadership conference.  Among the remarks being given are:

-       10:30 a.m. Representative Delia Ramirez, (D-Ill.) delivers remarks on "Affordable Housing: Public-Private Solutions for Latino Families" (Oceanic A/B)

-       10:30 a.m.: Pablo Jose Hernandez Rivera, (D-Puerto Rico), participates in a discussion on "Unlocking Growth: Stablecoins as a Catalyst for Latino Small Business Success" (Ballroom B)

·       Wednesday, September 17, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing & Insurance will hold a hearing on the Reauthorization of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002.

·       Wednesday, September 17, 2:00 p.m. – the House Financial Services Committee’s Task Force on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, & the Economy will hold a hearing entitled “Less Mandats. More Independence.”

·       Thursday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigations will hold a hearing entitled “Fraud in Focus: Exposing Financial Threats to American Families.”

·       Thursday, September 18, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, & Artificial Intelligence will hold a hearing entitled “Unlocking the Next Generation of AI in the U.S. Financial System for Consumers, Businesses, and Competitiveness.”

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Tuesday & Wednesday, September 16 – 17 – The Federal Open Market Committee meets on interest rates.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       Friday - Friday, September 12 – 18 – Secretary of the Treasury Scott K.H. Bessent will travel to the United Kingdom and Spain. While in Madrid, Secretary Bessent will meet with Spanish government counterparts to discuss the relationship between Spain and the United States. He will also meet with senior representatives from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), including Vice Premier He Lifeng, to discuss key national security, economic, and trade issues of mutual interest, including TikTok and cooperating on money laundering networks that threaten both the United States and China. Following his visit to Spain, the Secretary will visit the United Kingdom and engage with British government and private sector counterparts in London before joining President Donald J. Trump’s official State Visit with His Majesty King Charles III at Windsor Castle.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Wednesday, September 17, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting to consider three items:

1.     Amending Form PF; Reporting Requirements for All Filers and Large Hedge Fund Advisers; Further Extension of Compliance Date;

2.     Acceleration of Effectiveness of Registration Statements of Issuers with Certain Mandatory Arbitration Provisions, and;

3.     Amend its Rules of Practice relating to procedures governing Commission review of staff actions made pursuant to delegated authority in connection with the determination of the effectiveness of a registration statement or the qualification of a Regulation A offering.

·       Thursday, September 18, 9:15 a.m. – the SEC will hold a Roundtable on Trade-Through Prohibitions.

·       Thursday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a meeting of the Investor Advisory Committee.  They will discuss reconsideration of the eligibility criteria and regulatory treatment of foreign private issuers. The committee will also discuss a potential recommendation regarding retail investor access to private market assets.

·       Thursday, September 18, 12:30 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       Monday and Tuesday, September 15 & 16 – On Monday, CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will speak at a fireside chat on “Instability as a Catalyst - Fintech’s Role in a Global Interconnected Economy” and participate in a panel discussion titled “Are Digital Assets Fundamentally Transforming the Ecosystem of Financial Markets?” On Tuesday, she will speak at a fireside chat on “Instability as a Catalyst - Fintech’s Role in a Global Interconnected Economy” and participate in a panel discussion titled “Are Digital Assets Fundamentally Transforming the Ecosystem of Financial Markets?” at Money 20/20 Middle East.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Housing Finance Agency

·       Tuesday, September 17, Noon – FHFA Director William Pulte will speak at the Exchequer Club in Washington, D.C.

National Credit Union Administration

·       Thursday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA board will hold a meeting to receive a briefing on the Share Insurance Fund.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       Tuesday, September 17, 9:00 a.m. – The FTC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Farm Credit Administration

·       Thursday, September 11, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will meet to receive a report on Quarterly Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System Conditions and Performance.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Sunday – Tuesday, September 15 – 17 – The American Bankers Association holds its Bank Marketing Conference in New Orleans, Louisiana.

·       Monday, September 16, 2:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold its Women’s Leadership Forum in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       Thursday, September 18, 10:00 a.m. – The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a discussion on the release of the Progressive Policy Institute's annual report "Investment Heroes 2025: The Shape of the AI-Enabled Economy."

·       Thursday, September 18, 2:30 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a hybrid event entitled “The Importance of Credible Government Economic Data to Business”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added t

Recommended Weekend Reads

Are the CRINKs a Real Global Power Bloc Or Not? Taking a Deep Dive into the US-Japan Trade Deal, and the Projected Impact of Generative AI on Productivity Growth

September 12 - 14, 2025

Each week, we gather up the best research and reports we have read in the past week and pass them on to you.  Below is this week’s curated collection.  We hope you find them interesting and informative, and that you have a great weekend.

What’s Up with The CRINK’s?

• CRINK Economic Ties: Uneven Patterns of Collaboration   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  This brief explores the post-2022 economic ties among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—the so-called CRINK states. Historically, economic alignment among military allies has been uneven and has not necessarily indicated the formation of a cohesive bloc. The World War II–era Axis powers, for instance, had fragmented economic cooperation due to geographic distance, wartime needs, sanctions, mistrust, and a focus on self-sufficiency—factors that also constrain CRINK today. Still, signs, including rising trade in energy and dual-use technologies, point to growing economic coordination. Assessing these ties is difficult, however, due to limited or opaque data (especially from Iran and North Korea) and increased informal trade since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This brief draws from diverse international and industry-specific sources to fill data gaps. Findings show uneven patterns: China-Russia economic ties have grown, especially in energy and dual-use goods, but Chinese investment in Russia remains modest amid concerns over sanctions-related investment risks. Other CRINK members show far weaker economic coordination.
  

• Russia’s New Fear Factor   Foreign Affairs

  Among elites in Russia today, something dark is happening.  According to Novaya Gazeta, the independent Russian newspaper, there have been 56 deaths of successful businesspeople and officials under strange circumstances since February 2022. Many of them have fallen out of windows.  More and more, people who have loyally served Putin’s system are being persecuted, mainly on the grounds of corruption.  As the Putin regime turns on its own people, it, too, has begun to replace them with a new breed of loyalists, people whose primary qualifications are their apparent fealty to the leader, and sometimes their participation in the war. Still, Putin prefers experienced and talented technocrats for the most responsible positions, such as governors and ministers. After more than three and a half years of war and mounting economic challenges, Putin’s aim is not to fight corruption. His goal is to avoid internal threats. And to do that, he needs to turn the elites into a frightened and therefore controllable class.
  

• China’s Anti-Western Bloc? Not So Fast   Center For European Analysis

  The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin from August 31-September 1 was filled with carefully curated images of the post-Western world that China is working to construct.  For the men complaining that they, and their peoples, have been poorly rewarded by the global system, this was a big moment. Photographs captured China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and India’s Narendra Modi in a huddle and holding hands. That in itself was enough to send a not-very-friendly message to the United States and its European and Asian allies.  But that snapshot failed to show intense competing agendas among these countries. For now, at least, it is premature to interpret it as either a significant challenge to the Western order or an alliance of authoritarian states. 

• Why India and China Remain Bitter Rivals    Shyam Saran/Time

  Shyam Saran is a former Foreign Secretary of India and the author of “How China Sees India and the World.”  In this essay, he argues that the visuals of exaggerated cordiality between Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, President Vladimir Putin of Russia, and President Xi Jinping of China at the recently held Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit on September 1 displayed China’s convening power. But the gathering of major non-Western leaders in Tianjin, a city in eastern China, didn’t do much to resolve the long-standing border dispute and ever-growing competition between India and China. 

Update on the Trade Wars

• Investing in Security and Success: Analysis of the US-Japan $550 Billion Strategic Investment Fund    The Hudson Institute

  The centerpiece of the recent trade agreement between the United States and Japan was Japan’s promise to invest $550 billion in a new fund that would help “rebuild and expand core American industries.” On September 4, the US and Japan signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that details the full scope of the investment framework, including:

  • Japan should allocate the $550 billion before President Donald Trump’s term ends on January 19, 2029.

  • Investments should go to key strategic sectors—semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, metals, shipbuilding, energy (including pipelines), artificial intelligence (AI), and quantum computing.

  • The president will create an investment committee to recommend and oversee investments. The US Secretary of Commerce will chair the investment committee and select its other members.

  • A consultation committee, with designees from both the United States and Japan, will advise an investment committee, which will then recommend projects. The consultation committee will also provide legal and strategic input to the investment committee.

  • The United States Investment Accelerator will execute, manage, and administer the investments. This office is based within the Department of Commerce, and the Secretary of Commerce has the power to appoint its executive director.

  • The US will create a special purpose vehicle (SPV) for each investment. The US or its designees will govern these investment SPVs.

  • With the president’s approval, the US will propose projects and their investment amounts for Japan to review. Japan will have about two months to respond and transfer the necessary funds—in US dollars—to the investment accelerator.

  • Japan has the right to decline to fund all or part of a project. But the US can then impose tariffs on Japanese imports in response.

  • Japan and the US will evenly split profits from the project until Japan recoups its investment. Afterward, profits will be disbursed at a ratio of 90 percent to the US and 10 percent to Japan.

  • The US government will try to arrange leases to federal land, access, water, power, and energy to investment projects, as well as organize offtake arrangements. The federal government will also expedite relevant regulatory processes.

  • When possible, Japanese firms will receive priority over comparable foreign firms to serve as vendors and suppliers for projects.

• A Guide to Trump’s Section 232 Tariffs, in Maps   Council on Foreign Relations

  Section 232 tariffs aim to protect U.S. national security. Created by the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, Section 232 empowers the president to charge duties pending the results of a Department of Commerce investigation into the imports’ effects on national security. The Donald Trump administration has already used this tool to raise levies on aluminum, cars and car parts, copper, and steel—and has launched Section 232 investigations into nine other types of products. These twelve graphics dive into each sector, laying out the scale of imports, their concentration by country, and the geopolitics of exporting nations, separating friends—NATO members, major non-NATO allies, and free trade agreement (FTA) partners—from potential foes.

Geoeconomics, Data Centers, and Power Generation

• Financial Bubbles Happen Less Often Than You Think   William Goetzman/Wall Street Journal

  Bubbles loom large in our historical understanding of the financial markets. They are memorable. They are colorful. They are scary. They raise questions about investor psychology and the madness of crowds. In good times, we worry if we’re going to be caught in the next big bubble. Looking at financial bubbles since 1790, however, we find that they are much rarer than their presence in the public imagination—and not necessarily purely negative. They sometimes set the stage for major changes in people’s worldviews, upending old ideas about the possibilities and limitations of business. Sometimes bubbles remake society itself, as all that investor money funds technological advances that change the world.

• The New Economic Nationalism: Industrial Policy and National Security in the United States, China, and the European Union    Geoforum

  Abstract: This paper examines the resurgence of industrial policy and national security strategy across the United States, China, and the European Union. We analyze how these major economic powers are implementing distinct approaches to industrial policy while pursuing similar objectives of technological leadership and national economic prosperity. The United States has adopted a hawkish stance with extensive trade policies and subsidies. China has pursued ambitious growth in a range of sectors through long-term planning and strong government control. The European Union has balanced autonomy with trade openness and somewhat less state intervention. Our comparative analysis reveals that while these policies may be successful in strengthening domestic economies, they collectively reshape the world economy in ways that may disadvantage other nations, especially in the global South. However, ‘connector’ countries in the global South are benefiting by forging strategic ties with several superpowers. Additionally, the rise of China gives hope for South-South development cooperation that upend existing imperial arrangements often characterized by North-South relations. We argue that the convergence of industrial policy and national security represents more than a temporary response to recent disruptions; it signals a fundamental shift in the world economy towards more economic nationalism.

• The Projected Impact of Generative AI on Future Productivity Growth   Penn Wharton Budget Model

  The Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) team estimates that 40 percent of current GDP could be substantially affected by generative AI. Occupations around the 80th percentile of earnings are the most exposed, with around half of their work susceptible to automation by AI, on average. The highest-earning occupations are less exposed, and the lowest-earning occupations are the least exposed. 

  • AI’s boost to productivity growth is strongest in the early 2030s, with a peak annual contribution of 0.2 percentage points in 2032. After adoption saturates, growth reverts to trend. Because sectors that are more exposed to AI have faster trend TFP growth, sectoral shifts during the AI transition add a lasting 0.04 percentage point boost to aggregate growth. 

  • Compounded, TFP and GDP levels are 1.5% higher by 2035, nearly 3% by 2055, and 3.7% by 2075, meaning that AI leads to a permanent increase in the level of economic activity. 

  • Caution is required in interpreting these projections of AI’s impact, which are based on limited data on AI’s initial effects. Future data and developments in AI technology could lead to a significant change in these estimates.

  • In ongoing work, PWBM is estimating the impact of AI on the federal budget. In very preliminary analysis, we estimate that AI could reduce deficits by $400 billion over the ten-year budget window between 2026 and 2035.

• How Retainable are AI-Exposed Workers?     Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  Abstract:  We document the extent to which workers in AI-exposed occupations can successfully retrain for AI- intensive work. We assemble a new workforce development dataset spanning over 1.6 million job training participation spells from all U.S. Workforce Investment and Opportunity Act programs from 2012 to 2023, linked with occupational measures of AI exposure. Using earnings records observed before and after training, we compare high AI exposure trainees to a matched sample of similar workers who only received job search assistance. We find that the average earnings return to training among AI-exposed workers is high, around $1,470 per quarter. Low-exposure trainees capture higher returns, and trainees who target AI-intensive work face a 29 percent earnings return penalty relative to their high-exposure peers who pursue more general training. We estimate that between 25 and 40 percent of occupations are “AI retrainable” as measured by their workers receiving higher pay for moving to more AI-intensive occupations—a large magnitude given the relatively low-income sample of displaced workers. Positive earnings returns in all groups are driven by the most recent years when labor markets were tightest, suggesting training programs may have stronger signal value when firms reach deeper into the skill market.  

• Data Centers Make the Beige Book, Plus Power Problems    Paul Kedrosky Blog

  Recent reports from the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and five regional Federal Reserve Banks point out that the explosion of data center construction is “causing a step increase in regional electricity loads” – meaning, power generation is the biggest constraint on continued data center capex at the current rate.