The Global Week Ahead
Trump Rejects Iran’s Latest Proposal But Expects Additional Talks This Week, Brazil Holds Presidential Elections, Switzerland Votes on Stricter Neutrality, and Markets Await New Inflation Data
September 27 - October 4, 2026
After last’s weeks hectic schedule—which included President Trump’s much anticipated summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping and numerous important side meetings at the UN General Assembly—this week will be relatively quiet.
The two major geopolitically focused events this week will be next steps on US-Iran negotiations and Brazil’s presidential elections. Following meetings at the UN with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Special Envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Iran offered a new proposal that would require the US to release frozen funds, lift oil sanctions, and end the US Navy blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump rejected the offer on Saturday but told reporters on Sunday he expects further diplomatic talks with Iran this week. The location of the talks and the form they will take are unclear. Additionally, President Trump has said that in the absence of a deal he expects the US to begin bombing Iran again after the US midterm elections.
Meanwhile, fighting between Houthi forces and Saudi Arabian forces seems to be intensifying. French President Emmanuel Macron has sent troops, radar and air defense systems to help protect Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline from further Houthi attacks. And Turkish and Pakistani military chiefs are in Riyadh for urgent meetings on implementing their newly signed mutual defense agreement; however, the formal activation trigger remains undefined and the exact scope of military assistance from Turkey and Pakistan to Saudi Arabia is unclear.
The second big event this week is Brazil’s presidential elections on October 4th. The last major polls taken before the vote suggest incumbent President Lula has a very slim lead over challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. There is a significant chance a run-off vote will have to be held on October 25th as most of the polls show Lula and Bolsonaro below the 50% threshold to win an outright victory (the third candidate, Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party, is running far behind Lula and Bolsonaro). Also, Brazilians will be voting for all 54 federal senators, 513 federal deputies, 26 state Governors and 1,059 state deputies.
Switzerland held a referendum today (Sunday) on whether to make its constitutionally mandated neutrality even more strict. Early results suggest 71% of voters rejected the proposal. If the referendum had passed, it would have barred Switzerland from imposing sanctions not backed by the UN Security Council. Additionally, Switzerland would have been prohibited from cooperating with military alliances unless it came under attack. The proposal was strongly backed by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party and is publicly supported and promoted by Russia (mostly due to Switzerland’s support and adoption of the EU’s sanctions on Russia in 2022).
Looking at the economic and financial radar screen, markets are focused on flash CPIs in Europe and Japan, China’s PMIs, and the US PCE and jobs report.
On Friday, the US jobs report will be released with the consensus expecting a 45,000 uptick in September’s payroll numbers. The report will follow two other important labor reports: The August JOLTS report on Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday. We will also get a better read on inflation in the US with the August PCE release on Wednesday. Additionally this week, we will get the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index on Tuesday and the ISM manufacturing index on Thursday.
Canada reports July GDP figures on Tuesday and its latest PMI data on Thursday.
Turning to Asia, Japan has a big week of economic data releases: the Bank of Japan minutes are out on Monday, August Industrial Production numbers on Wednesday, the Tankan Survey on Thursday, and CPI on Friday. China is equally busy with the August industrial profits report on Monday and September PMI gauges on Wednesday, all in advance of its Golden Week celebration. Also this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates on Tuesday.
In Europe, September Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reports will be the main focus: Spain releases its report on Tuesday; Germany, France, and Italy on Wednesday; and the Eurozone on Friday.
We also note that European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel has announced she is stepping down to become the head of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department effective January 3rd. It is unclear who will replace her, and we will likely see a significant amount of lobbying and jockeying among EU members pushing their respective candidates.
Below is our detailed report on all other major geopolitical and economic events for the coming week:
Sunday, September 27, 2026
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Trump is expected to attend the Presidents Cup golf event in Illinois. Later, he will host Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for a private dinner at the White House.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Turkmenistan, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· France holds elections for 178 seats of the French Senate.
· Switzerland holds a vote on two major referendums. Chief among them is a Neutrality Initiative which seeks to introduce a stricter approach to neutrality and enshrine into the constitution the provision that “Switzerland’s neutrality is perpetual and armed.”
· The UK Labour Party conference begins in Liverpool.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· São Tomé holds parliamentary elections.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, September 28, 2026
Global
· The UN Security Council will hold a briefing on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question. Ramiz Alakbarov, Deputy Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, is expected to brief. The briefing will include new Israeli settlement activity.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· A new US import ban on Canadian goods takes effect at midnight tonight. Goods included are beer, wine, cider, whiskey, vodka, rum, whey products, and larger-capacity motorcycles and mopeds.
· The US Senate is expected to vote on legislation aimed at regulating the energy costs for data centers nationally.
· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam in Washington. He then will meet with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan.
· Canada hosts ‘Pathways to Peace: Second International Conference on Returning Ukrainian Children, Detained Civilians and Prisoners of War’, a ministerial conference co-organized with Ukraine and Norway to address the human dimension of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
· SpaceX will hold a test launch of its 14th Starship.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Bank Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a talk on recent developments in bank supervision and regulation at the Military Banking Summit 2026 (virtual).
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a fireside chat in Middleburg, Virginia.
· Brazil Current Account (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout
· Mexico Balance of Trade (August)
· USA Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (September)
· EARNINGS: Genius, Vail Resorts, Jefferies, ATCH
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· The Bank of Japan releases its BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
· The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank holds its annual meeting in Doha.
· China Industrial Profits (August)
· Malaysia PPI (August)
· India Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)
· EARNINGS: Shein
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) meets in Brussels. Defense ministers will discuss the current situation in Ukraine, the Middle East, and hybrid threats posed by Russia. Additionally, Ukraine Defense Minister Evgeniy Khmara will talk with the ministers about air defense, EUMAM Ukraine, industrial cooperation, and countering the Russian shadow fleet.
· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels through Tuesday. Ministers will discuss the post-2027 common agricultural policy (CAP), the current agricultural market situation, EU policies for fisheries, aquaculture, and maritime policy for 2028-2034.
· There will be an informal meeting of EU energy ministers through Tuesday in Brussels.
· UK Chancellor John Healey will address the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool. This will be a closely watched speech as Healey is expected to “frame” his Budget proposals in advance of actual fiscal statement he will be making on October 28.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks at a hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.
· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the XVII Expansión Financial Forum in Madrid, Spain.
· European Central Bank Governing Council Member Alvaro Santos Pereira speaks at a tourism summit in Lisbon, Portugal.
· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson chairs a panel at the 2026 ECB/ESCB Legal Conference "Independence, not isolation: central banks and their connections with other authorities" in Frankfurt, Germany.
· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking Dave Ramsden gives a speech on quantitative tightening, co-hosted by Money Macro and Finance Society at the Bank of England, London.
· Ireland Consumer Confidence (September)
· Slovenia Retail Sales (August)
· EARNINGS: Christie Group, Guoco Group, Likewise, Redcentric, Tullow Oil
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Tuesday, September 29, 2026
Global
· The UN Security Council is expected to adopt a resolution on the mandate of the Gang Suppression Force in Haiti and will hold a briefing and consultations on the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO).
· The UN General Assembly concludes its week-long series of meetings and speeches.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Trump and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) are expected to meet with technology CEOs to discuss AI and efforts to regulate the sector.
· OpenAI CEO Sam Altman delivers the opening keynote at OpenAI’s DevDay 2026 in San Francisco, California.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives opening remarks at the Federal Reserve System Community Bank Cyber Workshop (virtual).
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr gives remarks on the economic outlook at the Conversation with Michael S. Barr on the State of the Economy, Detroit, Michigan.
· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated question-and-answer session before “The Economy Ahead" luncheon hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Albert Musalem speaks before the London School of Economics and Political Science in London, UK.
· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote and participates in conversation at the University at Buffalo, Buffalo, New York.
· Bloomberg holds its Canadian Finance Conference in New York. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle will speak.
· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (September)/ Bank Lending (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Net Payrolls (August)
· Canada GDP (July)
· USA Redbook (September/26)/Case-Shiller Home Price (July)/ House Price Index (July)/ NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months/ JOLTS Job Openings (August)/ CB Consumer Confidence (September)/ JOLTS Job Quits (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (September)/ Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index (September)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (September/25)
· Argentina Current Account Q2
· EARNINGS: Carnival, CarMax, Concentrix
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan will raise fees for foreign nationals seeking residence status changes and stay renewals, replacing the current flat rate with a tiered system based on permit length. For five-year permits, in-person application fees will rise from 6,000 yen ($37) to 75,000 yen, while the fee for permanent residency will jump from 10,000 yen to 200,000 yen. The government is also expected to revise its permanent residency guidelines, introducing new requirements, including income criteria.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on interest rates. A press conference will follow the meeting.
· The 14th OECD-AMRO-ADB-ADBI-ERIA Asian Regional Roundtable on New Frontiers begins at the Asian Development Bank headquarters in Manila. The event runs through September 30.
· Australia Household Spending (August)
· South Korea Business Confidence (September)
· Singapore Import/Export Prices (August)/ PPI (August)
· Japan Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)
· China Current Account Q2
· EARNINGS: New World Development
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham gives keynote speech to the Labour Party conference in Liverpool. The conference concludes on Wednesday. Separately, City of London aldermen elect the Square Mile’s next Lord Mayor, who will take office in November.
· French President Emmanuel Macron begins a visit to Madrid, meeting with members of the country’s royal family and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks at the 2026 ECB/ESCB Legal Conference "Independence, not isolation: central banks and their connections with other authorities" in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs panel 4 at the 2026 ECB/ESCB Legal Conference "Independence, not isolation: central banks and their connections with other authorities" in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujčić chairs panel 6 at the 2026 ECB/ESCB Legal Conference "Independence, not isolation: central banks and their connections with other authorities" in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel discussion "Digital Capital Markets of the Future – Navigating the Next Wave" at Deutsche Bundesbank's 4th Finanzplatzkonferenz in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane participates in a fireside chat at the 50th Anniversary NY Fed Central Banking Seminar in New York.
· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann participates on a panel at the McKinsey Global Institute, The global balance sheet 2026: Imbalance and divergence in London’.
· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives the Dow Lecture on the topic of Expectations and the Risk of Inflation Persistence: what we know, what we don’t know, and the Implications for Policy at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in London.
· UK BRC Shop Price Inflation (September)/ BoE Consumer Credit (August)/ Mortgage Approvals (August)/ Mortgage Lending (August)/ M4 Money Supply (August)/ Net Lending to Individuals (August)
· Slovakia Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)
· Spain Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Business Confidence (September)
· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (September)
· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (September)
· Italy Industrial Sales (July)/ PPI (August)
· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (September)/ Industrial Sentiment (September)/ Selling Price Expectations (September)/ Services Sentiment (September)
· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (August)/ Jobseekers Total (August)
· EARNINGS: Airea, AG Barr, Card Factory, Close Brothers, Ebiquity, Hornbach, Made Tech, S&U
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Palestine Current Account Q2
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
Global
· The G20 Trade Ministers will meet in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is expected to deliver “State of the Force” address at the Pentagon.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives remarks on the state of the rural economy at the 2026 Investing in Rural America Conference, Asheville, North Carolina.
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin gives welcome and opening remarks before the "2026 Investing in Rural America Conference: The Strength of Rural Places" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in partnership with the Federal Reserve System and Rural LISC (Local Initiatives Support Corporation).
· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives remarks before the “Why Consumers and Economists See Different Economies" event, a collaboration between the Chicago Fed and the research organization NORC at the University of Chicago.
· AI Overview
· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari is scheduled to participate in an exclusive fireside chat with CNBC Senior Economics Reporter Steve Liesman. The event is part of the Council on Foreign Relations' C. Peter McColough Series on International Economics in New York.
· USA MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/25)/ MBA Mortgage Applications (September/25)/ MBA Mortgage Market Index (September/25)/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (September/25)/ MBA Purchase Index (September/25)/ ADP Employment Change (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Personal Income (August)/ Personal Spending (August)/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (August)/ PCE Price Index (August)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos Adv (August)/ Wholesale Inventories Adv (August)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Sales Q2/ Real Consumer Spending Q2/ Real Personal Spending (August)/ Chicago PMI (September)/ EIA Crude Oil/Gasoline Stocks Change (September/25)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Soy (September)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Wheat (September)
· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (August)/ Nominal Budget Balance (August)/ PPI (August)
· Chile Copper Production (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Manufacturing Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)
· Colombia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (August)
· Paraguay Current Account Q2
· El Salvador Current Account Q2
· Peru Inflation Rate (September)
· EARNINGS: Micron, Basset, Conagra
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Martyrs’ Day in China, honoring veterans. Chinese President Xi Jinping and senior Communist Party officials gather at Tiananmen Square for the occasion.
· The Samsung AI Forum 2026 begins in Seoul, South Korea.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Korea Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)
· Japan Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Housing Starts (August)/ Construction Orders (August)
· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (September)
· Philippines Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ PPI (August)
· Australia Building Permits (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ RBA Trimmed Mean CPI (August)/ CPI (August)/ Housing Credit (August)/ Private House Approvals (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ RBA Weighted Median CPI (August)
· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (September)/ NBS General PMI (September)/ RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (September)/ RatingDog Services PMI (September)/ RatingDog Composite PMI (September)
· Singapore Bank Lending (August)
· Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision/ Inflation Rate (September)
· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (September)
· Thailand Industrial Production (August)/ Current Account (August)/ Private Consumption (August)/ Private Investment (August)/ Retail Sales (July)
· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (August)
· India Government Budget Value (August)/ External Debt Q2
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· EU commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to the Western Balkans for meeting through October 2nd. She will visit Albania, Kosovo, Montenegro, and North Macedonia to meet with leaders and discuss a variety of EU-funded projects. However, she will skip traveling to Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina because those countries have upcoming elections (October 25th and October 4th, respectively) and she does not want to be seen as interfering with them.
· France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu presents the 2027 finance bill to parliament in Paris. Lecornu previewed the proposal last week, saying the government is seeking a massive €54 billion set of cuts in order to contain the country’s growing deficit in the face of almost no economic growth and the looming presidential elections next year.
· There will be an informal meeting of EU health ministers in Brussels through October 1st.
· Russia’s newly elected Duma convenes for the first time. United Russia (which is President Vladimir Putin’s party) won 349 of 450 seats, beating its 2016 record of 343. The CPRF won 37, LDPR 23, New People 19 and A Just Russia 17. It was the first parliamentary election since the full-scale war began, conducted with genuine opposition barred and amid reports of widespread fraud.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· The European Central Bank’s Governing Council will hold a non-monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives a speech at the 8th Annual EC-EIB-ESM Capital Markets Seminar: Financing Europe in Luxembourg.
· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson participates in a panel discussion at the 4th International Conference of Banking Supervisors hosted by the Bank for International Settlements in Bali, Indonesia.
· UK Car Production (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Nationwide Housing Prices (September)/ Business Investment Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Ireland Retail Sales (August)/ Unemployment Rate (September)
· Germany Retail Sales (August)/ Import Prices (August)/ Unemployed Persons (September)/ Unemployment Change (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (September)/ Bavaria CPI (September)/ Brandenburg CPI (September)/ Hesse CPI (September)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (September)/ Saxony CPI (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)
· Hungary Balance of Trade (August)/ PPI (August)
· France Inflation Rate (September)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)/ Household Consumption (August)/ PPI (August)
· Turkey Balance of Trade (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Imports/Exports (August)/ Participation Rate (August)
· Poland Inflation Rate (September)
· Italy Business Confidence (September)/ Consumer Confidence (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)
· Spain Current Account (July)
· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (September)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin
· Slovenia Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)
· Greece PPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (August)
· Serbia Balance of Trade (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Retail Sales (August)
· Ukraine Current Account (August)
· Russia Unemployment Rate (August)/ Business Confidence (September)/ Corporate Profits (July)/ Real Wage Growth (July)/ Retail Sales (August)
· EARNINGS: AOTI, Avation, Eurokai, NAHL Group, Northcoders, Saga, Spire Healthcare
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q2
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Africa M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Sector Credit (August)/ PPI (August)/ Balance of Trade (August)
· Mozambique Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, October 1, 2026
Global
· Greece assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of October.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Senate is expected to go into recess until after the November midterm elections. The House of Representatives went into recess 10 days ago.
· Tesla is expected to unveil its new Roadster car.
· NASA and SpaceX are expected to launch the Crew-13 mission to the International Space Station.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives remarks on Federal Reserve Economic Data at FRED Con: Navigating Trust, AI & Storytelling in a World of Data, St. Louis, Missouri.
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the US Economy and Monetary Policy and then participates in a Q&A in Charlottesville, Virginia.
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives remarks on Modernizing Financial Regulation: Initial Observations from eSLR at the Atlantic Council’s Conversation with Michelle W. Bowman, Washington, D.C.
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on global central banking at the
Central Banking Seminar (virtual). Joining her will be New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams.
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin will speak at the Economic Club in Washington, D.C.
· Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives welcoming remarks at the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank’s 5th Annual Workship on the Macroeconomic Implications of Migration being held in Dallas, Texas.
· Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak before the Greater Victoria Chamber of Commerce and CFA Society Victoria.
· Costa Rica Current Account Q2
· USA Challenger Job Cuts (September)/ Initial Jobless Claims (September/26)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (September/19)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (September/26)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (September)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (September)/ Construction Spending (August)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (September)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (September)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (September/25)/ 15-Year Mortgage Rate (October/01)/ 30-Year Mortgage Rate (October/01)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/30)
· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (August)
· Mexico Business Confidence (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Fiscal Balance (August)
· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Uruguay Balance of Trade (August)/ Current Account Q2
· Argentina Tax Revenue (September)
· EARNINGS: McCormick, Accenture, Nike, Acuity
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the 77th National Day in China, commemorating the founding of the People’s Republic of China. It is a national holiday. It is also the beginning of Golden Week in China, running through October 7th. Tens of millions of Chinese citizens are expected to travel in the country, visiting long-distance family members during the week. Hong Kong markets are closed, and mainland financial markets are shut through October 7th.
· South Korea celebrates Armed Forces Day. The day is commemorated at an event at the military headquarters of Gyeryongdae and is expected to involve some 4,000 troops.
· Today is Independence Day in Tuvalu.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Building Permits (August)
· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (September)/ Commodity Prices (September)
· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q3/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/19)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (September/26)/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q3/ Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3/ Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index Q3/ Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q3/ Tankan Small Manufacturers Index Q3/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· South Korea Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)
· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Singapore URA Property Index Q3
· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Sri Lanka PPI (August)/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (August)
· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/25)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the overall state of the Schengen area and exchange views on priorities for the Schengen Council cycle 2026-2027. They will also speak about migration, the EU drugs strategy, and mutual home security issues.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to speak at the annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Moscow-based think tank.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the welcoming address at the 10th annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board "ESRB@15: may you stay forever young" in Frankfurt, Germany. At the same conference she then chairs a panel discussion "Us in the mirror: How to ensure that the EU financial system contributes to a strong EU?"
· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives opening remarks at the LSE/Bank of England Future of Money conference in celebration of Charles Goodhart in London.
· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates in a policy panel at the research conference "The Future of Money", a conference in celebration of Charles Goodhart, in London.
· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado gives the keynote speech at the Alvarez & Marsal Crisis Management Forum in Madrid, Spain.
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives remarks followed by a discussion at EuroCommerce's Payments Day, "A pivotal moment to complete the single market for payments," in Brussels, Belgium.
· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives a keynote speech at the S&P Global Ratings' European Financial Institutions Conference 2026 in Paris, France.
· Bank of England Member of the Policy Committee member Catherine Mann gives a speech at the Nomura Investor conference in London.
· Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill chairs a panel discuss at the LSE/Bank of England Future of Money Conference in London.
· Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel joins former Banque de France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau for an OMFIF discussion in London.
· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (September)
· Russia M2 Money Supply (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Romania Unemployment Rate (August)
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (August)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Euro Area ECB General Council Meeting/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)
· Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Spain S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Italy S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)/ Unemployment Rate (August)
· France S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (September)
· EARNINGS: James Halstead
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Palestine GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (August)/ Private Bank Lending (August)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (September)
· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (September)
· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (September)
· South Africa Budget Balance (August)/ ABSA Manufacturing PMI (September)
Friday, October 2, 2026
Global
· World FAO Food Price Index (September)
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (September)/ Industrial Production (August)
· USA Non-Farm Payrolls (September)/ Unemployment Rate (September)/ Average Hourly Earnings (September)/ Participation Rate (September)/ Average Weekly Hours (September)/ Government Payrolls (September)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (September)/ Nonfarm Payrolls Private (September)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (September)/ Factory Orders (August)/ Factory Orders ex Transportation (August)/ Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (October/02)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (October/02)/ Total Vehicle Sales (September)
· Paraguay Inflation Rate (September)
· El Salvador GDP Growth Rate Q2
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· India’s stock markets are closed in celebration of Gandhi Jayanti, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Korea Inflation Rate (September)
· Japan Unemployment Rate (August)/ Jobs/applications ratio (August)/ Tokyo CPI (September)/ Tokyo CPI Ex Food and Energy (September)/ Monetary Base / Consumer Confidence (September)
· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (September)
· Pakistan Inflation Rate (September)/ Wholesale Prices (September)
· Singapore Retail Sales (August)/ SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (September)
· Thailand Business Confidence (September)
· Hong Kong Retail Sales (August)
· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (September)
· India Bank Loan Growth (September/15)/ Deposit Growth (September/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (September/25)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) will meet in Brussels. Ministers will discuss EU criminal justice cooperation, protecting civil society and journalists, and combatting racism and related forms of hatred and discrimination.
· The Green Party of England and Wales Conference begins in Brighton and the Plaid Cymru Conferences begins in Llandudno.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujčić gives the keynote speech at the 10th annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board "ESRB@15: may you stay forever young" in Frankfurt, Germany.
· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives the keynote speech at the 10th Conference of Mediterranean Central Banks "Digital currencies, payments and reserve management. Implications for the Mediterranean Central Banks" in Roda de Berá, Spain.
· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a panel discussion "¿Qué será, será? The financial system in the next fifteen years" at the 10th annual conference "ESRB@15: may you stay forever young" in Frankfurt, Germany.
· Spain New Car Sales (September)/ Unemployment Change (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)
· Italy New Car Registrations (September)/ Retail Sales (August)
· Russia GDP (August)
· Romania PPI (August)
· UK DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (September)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (September)
· Euro Area Inflation Rate Flash (September)/ CPI Flash (September)
· EARNINGS: Kernel, Skillcast Group, JD Wetherspoon
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Guinea, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· South Africa Total New Vehicle Sales (September)
· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (September)
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Global
· Fiji hosts the Pre-COP31 meeting through October 8th. The meeting aims to help countries move forward with discussion and find consensus points ahead of the November UN Climate Change Conference (COP31).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Vietnam Balance of Trade (September)/ Foreign Direct Investment (September)/ GDP Growth Rate Q3/ Industrial Production (September)/ Inflation Rate (September)/ Retail Sales (September)/ Tourist Arrivals (September)
· Turkey Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade (September)
· Sri Lanka Current Account Q2
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (September)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Germany celebrates National Unity Day, commemorating the 1990 reunification of East and West Germany.
· Latvia holds parliamentary elections. All 100 members of the Saeima are up for elections by open- list proportional representation.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· France New Car Registrations (September)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Iraq, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Egypt M2 Money Supply (August)
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Global
· The OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting take place (virtual).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Brazil holds elections for the presidency, governorship and the Chamber of Deputies and Senate. As of earlier this week, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (“Lula”) holds a slim two-point lead in polls over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro (who lost to Lula in the last election and is now serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn the election results).
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Daylight Saving Time begins in Australia – don’t forget to set your clock forward one hour!
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Bosnia and Herzegovina holds presidential and House of Representatives elections.
· The UK Conservative Party Conference begins in Birmingham, England.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Lesotho celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic & Financial Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Looking at the Weeks (and Months) Ahead
· September 30 – October 1: There will be a G20 Trade Ministerial Meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
· October 1: The G20 Sherpa Meeting III will be held in Washington, D.C.
· October 4: Brazil holds presidential and legislative elections.
· October 11–13: The World Health Summit is held in Berlin, Germany.
· October 12–18: The IMF and World Bank Meetings are held in Bangkok, Thailand. There will be a finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings on October 15th.
· October 27: Israel holds legislative elections which will determine who will be the next prime minister.
· October 26-29: China holds the First Plenary Session of the party’s 20th Central Committee, the most important political meeting for the Chinese Communist Party each year.
· October 30–31: The G20 Foreign Ministers meeting is held in Atlanta, Georgia.
· November 3: The US Midterm elections are to be held. All 435 members of the US House of Representatives, 1/3 of the US Senate, 36 governors, and 6,000 state legislative seats will be decided.
· November 9–20: The United Nations’ COP31 Conference will be held in Antalya, Turkey.
· November 18–19: The APEC Summit will be held in Shenzhen, China.
· December 10: The G20 Sherpa Meeting IV will be held in Miami, Florida.
· December 14–15: The G20 Leaders’ Summit will be held at the Trump National Doral in Miami, Florida.
2027
· January 18–22: The World Economic Forum is held in Davos, Switzerland.
· April 12–18: The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings take place in Washington, D.C.