Recommended Weekend Reads
What To Do When The START Treaty Expires, China’s Strategy for Countering the US’s New Focus on Latin America, the Economic and Geopolitical Implications of Apple’s Supply Chain, and Why Denmark Raised the Retirement Age to 70
June 6 - 8, 2025
Below is a collection of studies and articles we found particularly interesting and of likely impact on markets and public policy. We hope you find them helpful and that you have a great weekend.
The Future of Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control
No New START Franklin Miller/Eric Edelman, Foreign Affairs
The looming expiration of the New START Treaty, the only remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, has focused national security experts on what comes next. At the time it was signed in 2010, New START had some advantages. But New START was written for a geopolitical landscape that no longer exists. Fifteen years later, the world has changed dramatically. Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have emerged as aggressive and expansionist leaders, both dedicated to building a much more modernized and lethal nuclear weapons system.
Everything Changes but Nothing Changes: Can France Overcome Its Own Nuclear Doctrine? War on the Rocks
In a recent interview broadcast live on French television, President Emmanuel Macron said, “Ever since there has been a nuclear doctrine, Charles de Gaulle, there has been a European dimension of France’s vital interests. I have remained ambiguous on what those vital interests are…” Does France consider defending European allies part of their vital interests? Does France believe in extending a nuclear umbrella that covers Europe? These questions have been debated in France for decades, and with Russia’s aggression toward Ukraine, they have risen to a new level of focus and discussion.
Latin America
What Will China Do Next in Latin America? Ryan Berg/Foreign Policy
The second Trump administration has begun with a flurry of activity in Latin America. In the first 100 days, Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited both Central America and the Caribbean, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made a visit to Panama, and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem visited both South America and Central America and Mexico. Another visit to the region by Rubio and a trip by Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins are in the works. Some administration officials have characterized their approach as an “Americas First” foreign policy. The reprioritization of Latin America in the United States’ foreign policy, coupled with the high-level visits by cabinet officials, has placed China on the back foot in the region—at least temporarily. In many ways, Beijing was unprepared for the Trump administration’s considerable focus on the Western Hemisphere and its scrutinizing of countries’ relationships with China. Curiously, though, despite a revamped U.S. posture in Latin America, China appears to be sticking to a familiar bag of tricks—even as domestic challenges pare back the robustness of its offer.
Momentum for Red Tape Reform in Chile Picks Up Americas Quarterly
The decision by Chile’s government to scrap the massive Dominga copper and iron mining project in January, and the resulting court battles, have roiled debates over red tape and regulation in the country, where natural resources make up 77.6% of exports. These debates—which go far beyond the mining sector—have become a campaign issue ahead of the November general election as the business community demands lighter regulation and President Gabriel Boric defends his record and tries to forge compromises with his critics.
The War on Trees – How Illegal Logging Funds Cartels, Terrorists, and Rogue Regimes Foreign Affairs
Around the world, nefarious state and nonstate actors are extracting enormous value from forests to fund their operations. The unlawful clearing of land and the harvest, transport, purchase, and sale of timber and related commodities have long been dismissed as a niche concern of environmental activists. But this is a mistake. Although unsustainable deforestation imperils the environment, illegal logging also poses an outsize—and underacknowledged—geopolitical threat. Environmental crime constitutes a growing economic and national security threat to the United States and countries around the world. Yet Washington has largely ignored illegal logging’s role in its fight against transnational criminal organizations, drug cartels, terrorists, and rogue regimes, as well as China’s part in this illicit trade.
Geoeconomics
Why Emerging Markets Weathered Federal Reserve Tightening So Well Steven Kamin/AEI Economic Policy Working Paper Series
The steep rise in US interest rates that started in 2022 led many observers to anticipate severe difficulties for emerging market economies (EMEs). Unlike after the Volcker disinflation of the early 1980s or the bond market turmoil of 1994, however, most EMEs weathered the Fed’s monetary tightening in 2022-23 relatively well. In particular, EME dollar credit spreads, an indicator of potential financial distress, rose only moderately in those years before dropping to historically low levels in 2024. One reason that the EMEs weathered Fed tightening so well is that, simply put, Fed tightening is no longer as injurious to them as commonly believed; this likely reflects improvements in EME policies since the 1980s and 1990s that have bolstered their resilience. A second reason why EME spreads remained relatively contained in the face of rising interest rates is that US corporate credit markets remained buoyant, and their confidence spilled over to EMEs. We show that US high-yield spreads accounted for the lion’s share of the fluctuations in EME spreads over the past couple of decades, dominating not only the effects of monetary shocks but also changes in the VIX and the dollar.
Connectivity Policy – A Strategic Tool for the EU in its Eastern Neighborhood German Council on Foreign Relations
Given the shifts in the geopolitical landscape, connectivity is no longer just an economic tool – it has become a strategic instrument used for influence, resilience, and security, as China has demonstrated with its Belt and Road Initiative. The EU must understand that connectivity is central to its engagement with the Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries, where the EU faces growing competition not only from China’s BRI but also from Russia’s infrastructure dominance and Turkey’s regional ambitions. This memo explores the new momentum that connectivity has gained as a part of the EU foreign policy in the EaP and examines its significance in the emerging new regional order. It assesses whether and how connectivity can be reframed as a strategic instrument for the EU’s engagement.
Apple’s Supply Chain: Economic and Geopolitical Implications Chris Miller/Vishnu Venugopalan – American Enterprise Institute
Over the past decade, many electronics firms have talked about diversifying their supply chains. An analysis of Apple—America’s biggest consumer electronics firm—illustrates that most of its manufacturing supply chain remains in China, though there have been limited increases in Southeast Asia and India. China’s role for Apple has grown substantially. Ten years ago, Apple relied on China primarily for final assembly, while today Apple not only assembles devices in China, it also sources many components from the country. However, Chinese-owned firms generally only play a role in lower-value segments of the supply chain. Many of the higher-value components—even those made in China—are produced in factories owned by Japanese, Taiwanese, or US firms.
Immigration and Demographics
America’s Immigration Mess: An Illustrated Guide Nicholas Eberstadt/American Enterprise Institute
Immigration was a flashpoint in American politics long before President Biden’s election, but it became a major political fiasco with the Biden Administration’s mismanagement of illegal immigration. Immigration ended up being one of the top issues in the 2024 election and is widely recognized as one of the key factors contributing to the re-election of President Trump. America is poised for a very different set of immigration policies today. But wherever America aims to head with immigration policy, it is essential to guide that policy with accurate information. This illustrated guide is intended to offer a summary snapshot of America’s immigration situation today, and some of the dilemmas attending it. In this illustrated guide we collect what we take to be the most accurate data and information on a number of hotly debated questions: trends in total and illegal immigration; the Biden era migration surge and its components; immigrants’ contributions to the national economy, dependence of US social welfare benefits, and impact on the budget deficit and national debt.
Why Denmark is raising its retirement age to 70, Europe’s highest Rangvid’s Blog
The Danish parliament recently decided to raise the retirement age in Denmark to 70, effective from 2040. This decision attracted significant international attention. In this post, I will explain why the decision was made, the benefits it offers, and why, overall, the Danish pension system is strong, arguably among the best in the world. That said, it is not without its challenges.
