Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 8/31/25 Francis Kelly 8/31/25

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts the SCO Summit and Celebrates the 80th Anniversary of the End of World War II with World Leaders, Trump’s Tariff Deals in Doubt, and Markets Focus on the Fed’s Beige Book and US Jobs Report

Summer is officially over and world capitals in the Northern Hemisphere are roaring back to work this week. But the major geopolitical events of the week will be in China.

President Xi Jinping is hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit being held in Tianjin, China. This will be a particularly important SCO gathering as Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and other leading Asian leaders will be in attendance and holding sideline meetings with Xi. Of note, Prime Minister Modi’s sideline meeting with Xi shows continuing warming between the two nations – which has been historically frosty – as both struggle to deal with President Trump’s tough tariff regime.

After the SCO, Xi will hold an extravaganza 80th anniversary celebration in Beijing marking the end of World War II for China. Putin, Modi, and at least 28 other national leaders will be in attendance including North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. The significance of his attendance is it suggests new warming in the relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang which has been strained in recent years.

What both events clearly show is a growing alignment between nations that are outright hostile to the United States and the West with those nations hardest hit by the Trump tariffs, giving the combined nations a reason to work together. Seeing the leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, India, Iran, Cuba, and other nations sitting together watching an enormous Chinese military parade will drive that point home. What comes out of these meetings will likely be quite impactful on global markets in the weeks and months ahead.

Here in the US, two issues will be of major focus to markets this week. First, the decision by a Federal Appeals Court on Friday ruled that President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is illegal. These were put in place on “Liberation Day” on April 2nd. The decision upholds an earlier ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade and is now likely headed to the U.S. Supreme Court. But in the meantime, it puts into doubt the legality of Trump’s trade deals with the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea. Moreover, it the US Supreme Court upholds this decision, it will mean the Trump Administration will have to repay the billions of tariffs collected since April, estimated at roughly $142 billion.

The second event is the ongoing battle over whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook. A federal judge on Friday held an emergency hearing on the matter but did not issue a ruling. Our view is that this battle will go all the way to the Supreme Court and will likely not hold Cook back from voting at the upcoming Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on interest rates later this month.

Turning to look at the global economic and financial radar screen this week, and starting with the US, there will be a number of important reports out this week. The big events will be the Federal Reserve’s release of the Beige Book on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. Also, this week, the ISM indices will be out, giving more clarity on the manufacturing and services sectors, and the JOLTS print on Wednesday and the ADP report on Thursday.

In Asia, Japan releases Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations for Q2, which is expected to show as much as 3% growth year over year. In China, the August PMIs are out on Sunday, and manufacturing data is out on Monday, while services data is out on Wednesday.

In Europe, we will see the Eurozone CPI report on Tuesday as European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a speech on Monday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il are expected to attend. Putin will afterwards travel to Beijing for meetings with Xi.

· Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with Polish Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw and the visit the border between Poland and Belarus. She will then travel to Bulgaria to meet with Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov and visit a defense factor.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Oman will implement a "golden visa" for investors and wealthy residents..

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, September 1, 2025

Global

· Egypt will host a G20 meeting on food security in Cairo.

· South Korea assumes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of September.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Guyana holds presidential and parliamentary elections. Centre-left President Irfaan Ali of the People's Progressive Party Civic (PPP/C) is likely to be re-elected. However, opposition parties will likely secure a majority in the National Assembly (legislature).

· Today is Labor Day in the United State and Canada. It is a national holiday in both countries. Financial markets are closed.

· Mexican judges elected in the country's first judicial election in June will take office.

· The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission continues its annual meeting in Panama City.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mexico Business Confidence (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Fiscal Balance (July)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (July)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Peru Inflation Rate (August)

· Argentina Tax Revenue (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Uzbekistan Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Building Permits (July)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Building Permits (July)/ Company Gross Profits Q2/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (August)/ Business Inventories Q2/ Private House Approvals (July)/ Commodity Prices (August)

· Japan Capital Spending Q2/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (August)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers for European Affairs through September 2 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

· The EU Parliament returns to work from summer holiday.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Lithuania to meet with President Gitana Nauseda and then visit the Lithuania and Belarus border. She will then travel to Romania and meet with President Nicusor Dan and Prime Minister Illie Bolojan and visit the military port of Constana.

· The British Parliament returns to work from their summer holiday.

· Moldova begins negotiations with the EU about joining.

· Today is Slovakia Constitution Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a dinner speech at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel will chair a panel on 'Autonomy through the internal market and the capital markets union' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will chair a panel on 'Resilience, autonomy and cooperation in payments and clearing systems' at the 2025 ECB Legal Conference titled 'Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation' in Frankfurt Germany.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Harmonized Inflation Rate (August)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)/ BoE Consumer Credit (July)/ Mortgage Lending & Approvals (July)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Hungary PPI (July)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Spain Tourist Arrivals (July)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Switzerland procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ ECB Schnabel Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Serbia GDP Growth Rate Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (August)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (August)

Tuesday, September 2, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Mexico and Ecuador for bilateral meetings through September 4.

· The US Congress returns to work from its August recess.

· Brazil's Supreme Court hear legal arguments regarding attempted coup charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· USA Redbook (August)/30/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (September)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (August)/ Total Vehicle Sales (August)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Vietnam, a national holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will meet with and give remarks to local leaders in Eastern Hokkaido, Japan.

· New Zealand Export Prices Q2/ Import Prices Q2/ Terms of Trade Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (September/02)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (August)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (August)/ Current Account Q2/ Net Exports Contribution to GDP Q2/ Cotality Dwelling Prices (August)

· Japan BoJ Himino Speech

· Thailand Business Confidence (August)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (August)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (August)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (August)/ Wholesale Prices (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will chair a panel on 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel entitled 'Independent administrative discretion and the rule of law' at 2025 ECB Legal Conference "Building Europe's Autonomy: Law, Institutions, Cooperation" in Frankfurt, Germany

· Romania PPI (July)

· Hungary GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Switzerland Retail Sales (July)

· France Budget Balance (July)

· Spain Unemployment Change (August)/ New Car Sales (August)

· Euro Area Inflation Rate (August)/ CPI Flash (August)/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Machado Speech

· Italy PPI (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Lebanese Armed Forces will present a plan for Hezbollah's disarmament to Lebanon's Cabinet.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, September 3, 2025

Global

· The United Nations General Assembly will meet on Ukraine.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump will host Polish President Karol Nawrocki at the White House.

· Jamaica holds House of Representatives elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· St Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem gives speech at the Peterson Institute in Washington, D.C.

· Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a fireside chat hosted by the Minnesota Women's Economic Roundtable.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/29)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/29)/JOLTs Job Openings (July)/ Factory Orders (July)/ Fed Beige Book/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/29)/EARNINGS: Salesforce, HPE, Gitlab, Dollar Tree

· Brazil Industrial Production (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (August)

· Canada Labor Productivity Q2

· Colombia Exports (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China will hold a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, with 26 foreign leaders in attendance.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (August)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (August)

· Japan S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (August)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (August)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (August)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (August)/ M3 Money Supply (August/22)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Union's new floating price cap on Russian oil, set at 15% below the six-month average market price, will take effect.

· The Eastern Economic Forum will be held in Vladivostok Russia through September 6.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give welcoming remarks at the 9th ESRB Conference "Broadening horizons: ESRB’s next decade of impact" in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden gives a keynote speech at the Bank of England and Warwick Business School Innovation In Money and Payments Conference.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (August)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Slovakia Real Wages Q2

· Turkey Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (August)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)/ PPI (August)

· Great Britain BoE L Mann Speech / S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ BoE Breeden Speech

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (September)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudia Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (August)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (August)

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (August)

· Jordan PPI (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Angola will host its "Angola Oil & Gas" conference in Luanda.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (August)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Angola GDP Growth Rate Q2

Thursday, September 4, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, will meet with US trade negotiators in Washington today and Friday.

· US Council of Economic Advisors Chair Stephen Miran will get a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee to fill out the term of Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

· Bloomberg holds its Bloomberg Power Players New York Conference.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before an Economic Club of New York Signature Luncheon.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before mHub Industry Disruptor Series event.

· USA Challenger Job Cuts (August)/ ADP Employment Change (August)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Initial Jobless Claims (August)/30/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)/ ISM Services PMI (August)/ EIA Natural Gas & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/29)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (September/04)/ Fed Balance Sheet (September/03) EARNINGS: Broadcom, Lululemon

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (June)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (August)

· Uruguay Inflation Rate (August)

· Brazil Balance of Trade (August)

· Colombia PPI (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Current Account (July)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August)/30/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/30

· Australia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Household Spending (July)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (August)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark through September 5.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The Handelsblatt banking summit will be held in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give an introductory statement at a hearing on the digital euro before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium

· Hungary Retail Sales (July)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ ECB Cipollone Speech

· France HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Germany HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (August)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (August)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (August)/ DMP 1Y CPI Expectations (August)/ DMP 3M Output Price Expectations (August)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (July)

· Ireland Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ GNP Q2

· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (August)

· Spain Consumer Confidence (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Business Confidence Q3

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Friday, September 5, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil PPI (August)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (August)/ Employment Change (August)/ Full & Part Time Employment Chg (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Wages (August)/ Ivey PMI s.a (August)

· USA Unemployment Rate (August)/ Participation Rate (August)/ Average Hourly Earnings (August)/ Government Payrolls (August)/ Manufacturing Payrolls (August)/ U-6 Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (August)

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (August)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (August)

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (August)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan will host the 12th Japan-Australia meeting of foreign and defense ministers in Tokyo.

· Singapore’s parliament goes into session. This is the first gathering of parliament since the May elections when the ruling People’s Action Party won a commanding majority.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Japan Household Spending (July)/ Average Cash Earnings (July)/ Overtime Pay (July)/ Coincident Index (July)/ Leading Economic Index (July)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Singapore Retail Sales (July)

· Taiwan Inflation Rate (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/29)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· UK Reform holds it two-day national conference in Birmingham, England.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Germany Factory Orders (July)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (August)

· Hungary Industrial Production (July)

· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ New Car Registrations (August)

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Retail Sales (July)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Italy Retail Sales (July)

· Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Greece Balance of Trade (July)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (August)

· Serbia PPI (August)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (August)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (August)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Ghana Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, September 6, 2025

Global

· There will be an OPEC+ ministerial meeting in Vienna, Austria.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (August)/ Foreign Direct Investment (August)/ Industrial Production (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, September 7, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· China Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)/ Standing Committee National People's Congress

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through September 9 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/29/25 Francis Kelly 8/29/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Congress Returns to Work, Senate Banking Holds Miran Fed Confirmation As the Fight over Firing Fed Governor Cook Heats Up

September 1 - 5, 2025

The last days of summer are here as we head into the Labor Day weekend in advance of Washington roaring back to life on Tuesday as Congress returns to work after its August recess. And the future of the Federal Reserve will dominate the week ahead.

The legal and political battle over whether President Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook continues to heat up. Cook filed suit to block the move and a federal judge held a hearing on Friday. In advance of the hearing, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte tweeted out a new allegation against Cook, claiming she may have made false representations on a third property, and he was making yet another criminal referral on Cook’s mortgages to the Justice Department. As to why Pulte is choosing to use Twitter as the way to deal with this important situation is anyone’s guess. No previous FHFA Director has ever done something like this publicly before. But his actions are drawing increasing criticism, and we suspect that when Congress gets back next week, there will be a lot said from leading members about him.

There is little doubt the Cook case is going to go all the way to the Supreme Court – which is going to take time, and she is not going to step away until it is settled – which means, markets should expect her to be voting on interest rates at the September Fed meeting on interest rates.

Meanwhile, the Senate Banking Committee will be holding a confirmation hearing on Thursday for Stephen Miran’s nomination to fill out the remaining months of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s term (which ends in January). Senate Democrats are demanding that the hearing be held up until the Cook situation is settled, but that is not going to happen. We suspect Miran will likely be confirmed by the full Senate by early October.

Otherwise, there is not a lot going on publicly in Congress or among the regulators. We hope you have a great Labor Day weekend. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Thursday, September 4, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will confirmation hearings for Ben Hobbs, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development; Ronnie Kurtz, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Housing and Urban Development; Dr. Stephen Miran, to be a Member, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; Mr. Christopher Pilkerton, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Treasury; and Jonathan Burke, to be Assistant Secretary, Department of Treasury.

House of Representatives

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Wednesday, September 3, 9:00 a.m. – St. Louis Federal Bank President Alberto Musalem will give a speech entitled “The US Economy and Monetary Policy: A Conversation with Alberto Musalem.”

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, September 4, 9:00 p.m. – SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda will deliver the opening remarks at the SIFMA Valuation Roundtable in Washington, DC.

· Thursday, September 4, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Thursday, September 5, 2:00 p.m. – SIFMA will hold a Private Markets Valuation Roundtable in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Wednesday, September 3, 9:00 a.m. – St. Louis Federal Bank President Alberto Musalem will give a speech entitled “The US Economy and Monetary Policy: A Conversation with Alberto Musalem.”

· Wednesday, September 3, 3:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “The future of financial services regulation: A conversation with CFTC Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/29/25 Francis Kelly 8/29/25

The Global Week Ahead

Xi Hosts Putin and Modi at the SCO Meeting, Iran Returns to the (European) Negotiating Table, Trump’s Additional 25% Tariffs on India Begin, and Markets Await Key Inflation Reports

August 24 - 30, 2025

The busiest summer we can remember in a long time comes to an end this week here in the US with the Labor Day holiday. And, proving true to its non-stop tempo, it will be another busy week around the world. In Tianjin, China, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will meet. Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts the leaders of Belarus, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and – perhaps most importantly – Russia and India.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend and meet with Xi just as President Trump seeks to push forward with Ukrainian peace talks and prepares to slap new 25% tariffs on India Wednesday (on top of the existing 25% tariffs) for buying Russian oil which helps fund the war (but, notably, not on China which also is a massive purchaser of Russian oil). It also comes a week after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Indian officials in New Delhi to discuss ways to further de-escalate border tensions and discuss commonalities in dealing with the US.

Meanwhile, in Vienna this week, Iranian officials are expected to meet with UK, French, and German diplomats on their nuclear program. Iran risked the three European countries triggering “snapback” sanctions on them if they did not participate. The talks come in the wake of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) expressing frustration with Tehran refusing to account for the status of their refined uranium stockpiles after Israel and the US struck Iranian nuclear facilities. IAEA officials are also expected in Washington this week to meet with US officials over the same matter.

As noted above, President Trump is expected to impose new 25% tariffs on India this week for refusing to step back from purchasing oil from Russia. India is the second-largest purchaser of Russian oil after China. But unlike China, India’s purchase of Russian oil has spiked by almost 50% since Russia invaded Ukraine at steep discounts and then largely resells it as refined petroleum products globally, 42 percent to countries sanctioning Russian crude.

Also this week, President Trump will host South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the White House. It is Lee’s first meeting with Trump since being elected in early June. The meeting with Trump will be important as both leaders want to nail down important details of a new trade deal and how best to cooperate on how to deal with China. South Korea has agreed to more than $350 billion of investment in the US, which includes $150 billion in shipbuilding and $100 billion in LNG purchases.

Lee is coming off his first meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Saturday, where they agreed to cooperate on clean energy, AI, the aging population, and ways to boost some of the lowest birth rates in the world, and working with the US on dealing with North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile programs.

Looking at the global economic and financial radar screens this week, inflation is the big focus for markets. In the US, the July PCE report on Friday will give a clearer indication of which way inflation is headed in advance of the September Federal Reserve Board interest rate decision. Also out this week will be new home sales on Monday, pending home sales on Tuesday, and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator on Tuesday.

We would note two other important US economic/financial events this week: First, the “de minimis” exemptions end on Friday. That exemption allowed international carriers to ship goods valued at $800 or less to the US without paying duties. The second event is Nvidia’s quarterly earnings, where markets and policy analysts will be watching for guidance from the company on their sales to China after President Trump struck a deal with the company allowing the sale of their H20 and B40 chips in exchange for a percentage of their sales to China. But the Chinese government told local tech companies not to buy Nvidia’s chips due to “security concerns.”

In Europe, inflation is also top of mind as Germany releases the Ifo Survey on Monday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, and France's consumer confidence is out on Wednesday. Also out this week is the European Central Bank’s minutes on Thursday.

In Asia, Japan’s August CPI and consumer confidence reports are out on Thursday and Friday, respectively. And China’s industrial profits are out on Wednesday.

Below is the rest of our detailed report of the major geopolitical and geoeconomic events in the coming week:

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Elon Musk's SpaceX is set to launch its massive Starship rocket for a tenth time from Texas on Sunday to achieve several long-sought development milestones.

· President Nicolas Maduro today is deploying militia and volunteers across Venezuela against US “threats” and is calling for civilians to join the militia and armed forces.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean President Lee Jae-myung will hold a summit in Tokyo with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Ukraine Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 25, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon(UNIFIL). The Security Council is also scheduled to hold closed consultations on the 1718 Committee (North Korea).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will travel to Washington, D.C. for his first meeting with President Donald Trump. They are expected to discuss details of an emerging trade agreement to lower Washington's "reciprocal" tariffs to 15 percent.

· A delegation from the International Atomic Energy Agency will travel to Washington for high-level meetings on Iran’s nuclear program. Iran has refused to explain what has happened to the 409 kilograms of enriched uranium the country developed following the US bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites. Iran is also refusing to cooperate with the IAEA in accessing other key nuclear sites in the country.

· US Navy warships are expected to arrive off the coast of Venezuela to assist in large-scale counter-narcotics operations.

· Nigerian President Bola Tinubu will meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia.

· Today is Uruguay Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan speak and participate in a panel before the Bank of Mexico Centennial Conference in Mexico City, Mexico.

· Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (August)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (July)/ New Home Sales (July)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Building Permits (July)

· Mexico Current Account Q2

· Paraguay PPI (July)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesia hosts “Super Garuda Shield, a joint military exercise with a ceremony in Jakarta co-hosted by the Indonesian and U.S. armed forces. The annual drill will run for two weeks. Fifteen countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, are expected to take part, with a live-fire exercise scheduled to be held in Baturaja, Sumatra.

· Today is the Day of Songun, which is observed in North Korea. This holiday commemorates the start of the military-first rule in the nation, under the leadership of Kim Jong-il.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Evergrande will be delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange today.

· New Zealand Retail Sales Q2

· Malaysia Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Index (June)

· Japan Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Today is the Summer Bank Holiday in England and Wales.

· Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q2

· Spain PPI (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)

· Turkey Business Confidence (August)/ Capacity Utilization (August)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate & Current Conditions & Expectations (August)

· Poland Retail Sales (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (August)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Organization of Islamic Cooperation will host an extraordinary meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on expanded Israeli military operations and a mounting humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Zambia hosts health ministers for the 75th session of the World Health Organization’s Regional Committee for Africa.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and senior members of his Cabinet will travel to Germany to meet with Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the Central Bank of Mexico Conference in Mexico City, Mexico.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks before the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce.

· Brazil Current Account (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ IPCA mid-month CPI (August)

· Canada Manufacturing Sales (July), Earnings: Scotiabank and BMO

· USA Durable Goods Orders (July)/ Fed Barkin Speech/ Redbook (August/23)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (June)/ House Price Index (June)/ CB Consumer Confidence (August)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (August)/ Money Supply (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/22), Earnings: Prudential

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The South Korean and U.S. militaries will hold the joint Ulchi Freedom Shield drills in South Korea through Aug. 28.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (August)

· Australia RBA Meeting Minutes

· Singapore Industrial Production (July)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Thailand New Car Sales (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Iran is expected to hold nuclear talks with French, British, and German diplomats in Vienna, Austria. The three European countries have said they could re-activate UN sanctions on Iran under a snapback rule set in place unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table today. Iran is refusing to disclose to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) what has happened to the 409 kilograms of enriched uranium the country developed following the US bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites. Iran is also refusing to cooperate with the IAEA in accessing other key nuclear sites in the country.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· France Consumer Confidence (August)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (July)

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (August)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Catherine Mann will panelist at a conference commemorating the 100th Anniversary of the Central Bank of Mexico in Mexico City, Mexico.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (May)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (August)

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q2

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations on the situation in Gaza.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s additional 25% tariffs on imports from India go into effect today. Trump has said they are a penalty for buying Russian oil and raise the total tariffs on the South Asian nation to 50%, among the highest globally.

· Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar travels to Washington for meetings with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

· Brazilian Vice President and Trade Minister Geraldo Alckmin will lead a delegation to Mexico to meet with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.

· The political campaign period for Argentina's Oct. 26 midterm legislative elections will begin.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nvidia reports second-quarter earnings. Markets will be focused on guidance from the company with regard to China after receiving permission from the Trump Administration to sell H20 chips to China in return for 15 percent of profits earned there.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/22)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/22)/ Fed Barkin Speech

· Brazil Bank Lending (July)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (July)

· Canada Wholesale Sales (July), Earnings: RBC and EQB.

· Colombia Business Confidence (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· APEC Energy Ministers will meet in Busan, South Korea through August 28.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (August)

· Australia Westpac Leading Index (July)/ Construction Work Done Q2/ Monthly CPI Indicator (July)/ RBA Payments System Board Meeting

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (July)

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (August)

· Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Moldova. In honor of the day, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will visit the country to celebrate.

· Spain’s Tomatina food fight festival takes place in Buñol, Spain, the world’s biggest food fight. More than 20,000 people come to the town (whose population is 9,000) to throw tomatoes at each other. In 2015 (the last time they checked), an estimated 320,000 pounds of tomatoes were thrown.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (August)

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence SEP

· Hungary Gross Wage (June)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (August)

· France Unemployment Benefit Claims (July)/ Jobseekers Total (July)

· Great Britain CBI Distributive Trades (August)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Business Confidence (August)/ Corporate Profits (June)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Real Wage Growth (June)/ Retail Sales (July)/ GDP (June)/ GDP (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Tanzania's electoral commission will announce which presidential candidates are confirmed to run in the country's Oct. 29 general election.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Panama's President Jose Raul Mulino will lead a business delegation to Brazil and meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brasilia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner in Miami, Florida.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (August)/ Net Payrolls (July)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (July)

· Canada Current Account Q2/ Average Weekly Earnings (June), Earnings: CIBC and Toronto-Dominion

· USA GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Corporate Profits Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ Initial Jobless Claims (August/23)/ PCE Prices Q2/ Pending Home Sales (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/22)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/28)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/27), Earnings: Dell, Marvell, Autodesk, Pernod Ricard

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Australia and Indonesia will hold a "two-plus-two" meeting of their foreign and defense ministers in Canberra. The biannual forum last took place in 2023, when current Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto attended as defense minister. This year's meeting will be the ninth since the format was launched in 2006 to strengthen ties between the two neighbors.

· Bitcoin Asia 2025, one of Asia’s largest conferences, begins in Hong Kong. Speakers are due to include Eric Trump.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Junko Nakagawa gives a speech to local business leaders in Yamaguchi, Japan.

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/23)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (August)

· Central Bank of South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q2/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure/ Private Capital Expenditure Q2

· Malaysia PPI (July)

· Philippines Interest Rate Decision/ Budget Balance (July)

· India Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)

· Earnings: RHB Banking Group, Axiata Group, CITIC Securities, China Southern

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Defense Ministers in Copenhagen, Denmark though August 30.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank releases its July Monetary Policy Meeting minutes

· Euro Area New Car Registrations (July)/ Loans to Companies (July)/ Loans to Households (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)/ Economic Sentiment (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)/ Industrial Sentiment (August)/ Selling Price Expectations (August)/ Services Sentiment (August)

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (July)

· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Confidence Index (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/22)

· Italy Business Confidence (August)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Industrial Sales (June)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (July)

· Greece Total Credit (July)

· Spain Business Confidence (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Bank Lending (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa PPI (July)

· Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, August 29, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Haiti.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The United States will end the de minimis tariff exemption for small-value imported parcels under $800.

· Elon Musk faces a court deadline to answer a US Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit over allegations he improperly benefited from a late disclosure of his purchases of shares of Twitter in 2022.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (July)/ Nominal Budget Balance (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q2/ GDP Implicit Price Q2/ Budget Balance (June), Earnings: Laurentian Bank

· USA Core PCE Price Index (July)/ Personal Income (July)/ Personal Spending (July)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (July)/ Wholesale Inventories (July)/ Chicago PMI (August)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/29)

· Chile Copper Production (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (July)/ Cement Production (July)

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (July)

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand's Constitutional Court will rule on whether to remove Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from her position over a leaked phone call with former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, in which she referred to a Thai army commander as the "opposite side." In the wake of the leak, she was criticized for showing a lack of responsibility and integrity, as well as putting the country's sovereignty at risk.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Japan for an annual summit with his counterpart, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. The two are seeking to bolster trade and security cooperation.

· Samoa holds parliamentary elections.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Chinese electric car manufacturer BYD releases quarterly earnings. Markets are watching closely to get a deeper sense of how intense the growing electric car sector is dealing with price competition hitting new levels. Also reporting today will be Alibaba, the Bank of China, China Construction Bank, the Agricultural Bank if China, ICBC, COSCO Shipping, China Eastern, and Air China.

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index

· South Korea Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (July)/ Jobs/applications ratio (July)/ Tokyo CPI (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Consumer Confidence (August)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Construction Orders (July)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ PPI (July)

· Australia Housing Credit (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)

· Singapore Bank Lending (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Export Prices (July)/ PPI (July)

· Thailand Industrial Production (July)/ Current Account (July)/ Private Consumption (July)/ Private Investment (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (July)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (August)/ PPI (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

· India Government Budget Value (July)/ Bank Loan Growth (August/15)/ Deposit Growth (August/15)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/22)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will attend the 25th Franco-German Council of Ministers in Berlin, Germany. It is expected that the two countries will discuss joint defense projects and trade negotiations.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Gymnich, Germany, from August 30.

· Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha will visit Slovenia for bilateral talks.

· Today is the anniversary of the Slovak National Uprising, which took place in 1944 against the Nazis.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will deliver remarks at the Crusos Europeos de Verano in Pamplona, Spain.

· Great Britain Car Production (July)

· Germany Retail Sales (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Unemployed Persons (August)/ Unemployment Change (August)/ Unemployment Rate (August)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (August)/ Bavaria CPI (August)/ Brandenburg CPI (August)/ Hesse CPI (August)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (August)/ Saxony CPI (August)/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Romania Unemployment Rate (July)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (August)

· Hungary Balance of Trade (July)

· France Inflation Rate (August)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Household Consumption (July)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q2/ PPI (July)

· Spain Inflation Rate (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Current Account (June)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (August)

· Turkey Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations/ ECB Guindos Speech

· Italy GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (August)

· Poland Inflation Rate (August)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (August)

· Greece PPI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Ireland Retail Sales (July)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Unemployment Rate Q2

· Ukraine Current Account (July)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (July)/ Private Sector Credit (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Budget Balance (July)

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (August)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (August)

Saturday, August 30, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Popular Consultation Day in East Timor, commemorating the referendum that took place in 1999, giving the island nation greater autonomy from Indonesia.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic& Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Turkey Victory Day, also known as Turkish Armed Forces Day. It celebrates Turkey’s victory over the Greeks in 1922 at the Battle of Dumlupinar.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 31, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit begins in Tianjin, China, hosted by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to attend.

· Today is Kyrgyzstan Independence Day.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· China NBS Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI (August)/ NBS General PMI (August)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic & Financial Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/22/25 Francis Kelly 8/22/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Treasury Deputy Secretary Quits, A Fed Governor May Be About to Be Fired, The SEC Gets a Marine, Fed Governor Waller Will Give a Speech, and Otherwise, It’s a Dead Quiet Week Ahead

August 25 - 29, 2025

The Washington Augusts of years past no longer exist – remember those days of high temperatures and sauna-like humidity, a tomb-quiet downtown, long weekends at the beach, and no major news headlines?

As this past week showed, those days are gone as this past week showed. In the last five days, we saw the Deputy Secretary of the Treasury, Michael Faulkender, unexpectedly resign after five months on the job, a well-respected Federal Reserve Governor, Lisa Cook, facing a pretty good chance of being fired by President Trump for cause (supposed mortgage fraud after Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte somehow came across the documents and sent them to the Justice Department), and the Securities and Exchange Commission got a new Director of Enforcement, Meg Ryan, who is a former senior U.S. Marine Corps Judge Advocate (which my late father, who was a US Marine Corps Colonel, would surely shout “Oorah!” at the news of her appointment.)

We suspect there will be a legal battle over whether President Trump can actually fire Fed Governor Cook, but it is also likely to be a messy fight as she will have to explain how she listed two separate properties as her primary residence on two separate mortgage applications submitted 15 days apart.

We are not quite sure why Deputy Secretary Faulkender is stepping down, but it leaves Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with the top three roles either empty or with staff serving in acting roles (the Senate has not yet confirmed anyone to serve as Undersecretary for International Affairs or Undersecretary for Domestic Finance).

Looking at the week ahead, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be giving a speech in Miami on the economic outlook, CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham is giving a couple of speeches in Tokyo, and the SEC will be holding a Closed Meeting. That’s it. So – theoretically – it should be a very quiet week ahead. But considering how the first three weeks of August have gone, we would not bet on it.

But here’s to hoping for a quiet week ahead, heading into the Labor Day weekend, the end of summer, and the return of Congress on September 2nd. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

House of Representatives

· The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Thursday, August 28, 6:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Miami Dinner, Miami, Fla.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Thursday, August 28, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Tuesday, August 26, 12:55 p.m. (Tokyo) – CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will speak on “Writing the Rules for Cross-Border Web3: Regulatory Framework for Global Digital Assets” and then later participate in a fireside chat, “The Regulatory Reset: America's New Framework for Digital Assets” at Asia’s Leading Web3 Conference.

· Wednesday, August 27, 2:00 p.m. (Tokyo) – CFTC Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will speak on “How to Shape the Regulations & Policies for the Next Era of Web3” at the Blockchain Leaders’ Summit Tokyo 2025.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/22/25 Francis Kelly 8/22/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump Hosting An Extraordinary Meeting with Ukrainian President and Six European Leaders, Israel Poised to Approve A Controversial New West Bank Housing Plan, China Seeks a Deal with India on Their Border Dispute, and Global Central Bankers Converge on Jackson Hole

The busiest August we can remember in a long time looks to intensify this week. Following President Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, Trump will host Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, seeking a ceasefire in Ukraine and possibly longer-term peace terms. In an extraordinary move, Zelensky will be accompanied by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

It appears, according to numerous reports, that President Trump is considering unprecedented US security guarantees for Ukraine in return for a peace deal. But the entire situation remains tense and very much in flux. Markets will be watching all of this closely tomorrow to get some indication of movement one way or another.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Higher Planning Committee will be considering a highly controversial plan to allow the building of 3,400 new homes in the West Bank for Israeli settlers. The building plan, known as the E1 Settlement Project, would take place east of Jerusalem and is likely to be approved. By doing so, it is seen as likely to block efforts to establish a Palestinian State, as Palestinian leaders had seen the land where the homes would be built as where they would build their capital. EU leaders have urged Israel to refrain from approving the deal.

In Asia this week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit New Delhi for the first time in three years to discuss possible measures to reduce troops on the Himalayan border, further reducing tensions between the two nations. Later in the week, India’s Foreign Minister, S. Jainshankar, will travel to Moscow for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The meeting comes after President Trump slapped 25% secondary tariffs on India on top of the existing 25% tariffs for their trade in Russian oil. Markets will be watching closely for any movement between India and Russia – either pledging to continue the oil purchases or suggesting a slowdown.

The global economic radar screen this week is also a busy one. The big event is the annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this week where central bankers from around the world will gather to talk and speak to the theme of event ““Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” We are reminded that at last year’s Symposium, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell said it was time to lower rates, which the Fed then followed through on. Will we hear him say something similar this year in his speech a month in advance of the Fed’s FOMC September meeting?

Also happening concurrently with the Jackson Hole Symposium will be the SALT Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, bringing together top crypto business leaders, US regulators, and members of Congress.

In terms of major economic reports this week, in the Americas, the US FOMC minutes from July are released on Wednesday, and Canada releases July CPI figures on Tuesday. In Asia, China’s central bank interest rate decision is announced on Wednesday, South Korea’s July PPI on Thursday, and Japan’s July CPI data on Friday. And in Europe, the UK releases July CPI on Wednesday, Germany’s June manufacturing index is out Tuesday, and July PPI data on Wednesday, Eurozone HICP inflation data on Wednesday, and on Thursday, PMI data for the Eurozone, France, Germany, and the UK.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, August 17, 2025

Global

· Today is the 80th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.

· The International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI) conference takes place in Montreal, Canada, from August 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Summit of the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) holds its 45th Ordinary Summit of Heads of State and Government in Antananarivo, Madagascar.

· Today is Independence Day in Gabon.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, August 18, 2025

Global

· the UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Donald Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House to discuss Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week and next steps toward a possible cease fire in the Ukraine war. Also attending the meeting will be ATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

· Canada holds by-elections which could see Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre return to parliament.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Housing Starts (July)/ Foreign Securities Purchases (June)

· Chile Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

· USA NAHB Housing Market Index (August)

· El Salvador PPI (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will visit India to discuss drawing down troops at their disputed border.

· The U.S. and South Korea will hold their annual military drills, known as Ulchi Freedom Shield. About 18,000 South Korean soldiers will take part in the live-fire exercises amid North Korea's warnings of reprisals for what it says is a "direct military provocation.”

· German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will visit Japan for meetings with Japanese officials to discuss bolstering their strategic relationship.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (July)/ Services NZ PSI (July)

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports (July)/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)

· Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Japan Tertiary Industry Index (June)

· India Unemployment Rate (July)

· China FDI (YTD) (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Financial Times Business Book of the Year longlist announced.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Switzerland Industrial Production Q2

· Spain Balance of Trade (June)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (June)

· Poland Core Inflation Rate (July)

· Belarus Industrial Production (July)/ GDP (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will make a visit to Armenia and Belarus for a two-day visit. He will then travel on to Pakistan for bilateral meetings.

· US envoys Thomas Barrack and Morgan Ortagus visit Beirut, Lebanon for meetings on how to further the peace process in the country and also further urge the disarming of Hezbollah by the Lebanese Army.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Manufacturing Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the rebel group M23 to sign a peace agreement.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)

Tuesday, August 19, 2025

Global

· The 9th Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) begins in Yokohama, Japan and runs through August 22. The conference is led by Japan and co-hosted by the United Nations, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), World Bank and African Union Commission (AUC). The theme of the conference is “Co-create innovative solutions with Africa”.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on women and peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

· SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· Canada Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI Median (July)/ CPI Trimmed-Mean (July)

· USA Building Permits (July)/ Housing Starts (July)/ Redbook (August/16)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/15)

· Colombia Imports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand PPI Input & Output Q2/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Change & Index/ RBA Connolly Speech

· Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Euro Area Current Account (June)

· Slovakia Current Account (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (July)/ Inflation Expectations (August)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana PPI (July)

Wednesday, August 20, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at Teton Village, Wyoming. The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” You can access all papers presented at the Symposium HERE.

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the topic of payments at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.

· FOMC Minutes released/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/15)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/15)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (August/15)

· Canada New Housing Price Index (July)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (July)/ Economic Activity (June)/ Leading Indicator (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono will host German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul in Jakarta.

· The Thailand Electronics Circuit Asia 2025 trade show kicks off in Bangkok. The three-day event will bring together hundreds of companies from across the tech supply chain, with a major focus on printed circuit boards, a key component used in all types of electronic devices.

· The Taiwan Automation Intelligence and Robot Show opens in Taipei. Exhibitors at the four-day fair will show off the latest advances in smart manufacturing, robotics, artificial intelligence, and more.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor (business services) Michelle McPhee and assistant governor (financial system) Brad Jones take part in an online panel discussion at The Future of Money webinar.

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Machinery Orders (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases

· China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

· Indonesia Loan Growth (July)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (August)/ Lending Facility Rate (August)

· Taiwan Export Orders (July)/ Current Account Q2

· India M3 Money Supply (August/08)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde attends a meeting of the International Business Council of the World Economic Forum in Geneva, Switzerland.

· Russian central bank publishes household inflation expectations.

· Germany PPI (July)

· Great Britain Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Price Index (July)/ PPI Input (July)/ PPI Output (July)

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)

· Greece Current Account (June)

· Euro Area CPI (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Labour Cost Index Q2

· Italy Current Account (June)/ Residential Property Prices (June)

· Russia PPI (July)

· Turkey Central Government Debt (July)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel's Higher Planning Committee will vote on the E1 West Bank settlement plan which could allow 3,400 more Israeli settlement homes in the area.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Interest Rate Decision

· Oman Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate (July)

Thursday, August 21, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by a briefing on the Middle East (Syria). In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) and Libya sanctions.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook before the Metro Atlanta Chamber executive committee meeting.

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (August)/ PPI (July)/ Raw Materials Prices (July)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/16)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (August)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (August)/ Philly Fed Employment & New Orders & Prices Paid (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Existing Home Sales (July)/ CB Leading Index (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/21)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/20)

· Mexico Retail Sales (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Argentina Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (June)

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (July)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea PPI (July)

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Credit Card Spending (July)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/16)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

· India HSBC Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

· Hong Kong Inflation Rate (July)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam S. Jaishankar. They will discuss “key issues on our bilateral agenda, as well as key aspects of cooperation within international frameworks."
Economic Reports/Events –

· Switzerland Balance of Trade (July)

· Turkey Consumer Confidence (August)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

· France HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)

· Germany HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Bundesbank Monthly Report

· Euro Area HCOB Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ Construction Output (June)/ Consumer Confidence Flash (August)

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (July)/ Employment Growth (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ PPI (July)

· Slovenia PPI (July)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (August)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (August)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Kuwait Inflation Rate (July)

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (July)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Building Permits (June)

Friday, August 22, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on entitled “The Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming.

· Mexico Economic Activity (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Mid-month Core Inflation Rate (August)/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (August)

· Canada Retail Sales (June)/ Manufacturing Sales (July)/ Senior Loan Officer Survey

· Chile PPI (July)

· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/22)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (July)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

· Peru Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand's Criminal Court is due to hand down its verdict on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a lese majeste case. The 75-year-old Thaksin is accused of insulting the monarchy during an interview with the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo in May 2015.

· In South Korea, the People Power party to decide a new leader from a shortlist of four at its national convention. The embattled conservative party’s support has plummeted after disgraced former PPP president Yoon Suk Yeol was removed from office

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Inflation Rate (July)

· Indonesia Current Account Q2/ M2 Money Supply (July)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (July)

· Singapore Inflation Rate (July)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/15)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (August)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Retail Sales ex Fuel (July)

· Germany GDP Growth Rate Q2

· France Business Confidence (August)/ Business Climate Indicator (August)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (July)

· Slovenia Consumer Confidence (August)/ Unemployment Rate (June)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (July)

· Poland M3 Money Supply (July)

· Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (July)

· Jordan Industrial Production (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique GDP Growth Rate Q2

Saturday, August 23, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung will make his first overseas trip for a bilateral summit when he travels to Tokyo to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. After his Japan trip, Lee will head to Washington for a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, August 25.

· Taiwan holds a referendum on whether to restart its Maanshan nuclear power plant, the shutdown of which marked the end of the island's atomic energy era in May. The opposition Taiwan People's Party pushed for the vote on the grounds that reactivation is necessary for energy stability and security. President Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party has said he will vote "no." The referendum coincides with a handful of districts voting in recall elections against opposition Kuomintang lawmakers, after a larger first set of recall attempts all failed.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in a panel discussion at the annual Economic Policy Symposium entitled “The policy implications of labor market transition in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will give a speech at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, August 24, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Ukraine Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 8/16/25 Francis Kelly 8/16/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

It’s All About Wyoming This Week

August 18 - 22, 2025

‘The time has come’ for rates cuts”

– Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, August 23, 2024

Washington will be quiet this week as Congress remains out of session for the August recess and the bulk of lobbyists are on vacation, too. Instead, all the action will be in Wyoming this week – specifically, in Jackson Hole as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.

All eyes and ears will be on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s economic outlook speech on Friday, with markets wondering: Will Powell repeat the above quote from his 2024 speech at the Symposium, cuing up a likely rate cut at September’s Federal Open Market Committee?

But that’s not all that is taking place around Jackson Hole this week: On the sidelines of the Economic Symposium will be the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025. There is scheduled to be something of a “who’s who” of regulators and members of Congress. Notably, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat discussing all things crypto, and Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be giving a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System.”

Also speaking will be Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) – who is going to be quarterbacking this fall the legislative aspects of President Trump’s recently released digital financial technology strategy – and Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) who chairs the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets (and is known on Capitol Hill as the “Crypto Queen,”) as well as Tyler Williams who is Counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on digital asset issues.

And that is about it for this coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

House of Representatives

The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Tuesday, August 19, 2:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.
Wednesday – Saturday, August 21 – 23 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at the Teton Village, Wyoming. The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” You can access all papers presented at the Symposium HERE.
Wednesday, August 20, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the topic of payments at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.
Friday, August 22, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on entitled “The Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming.

U.S. Treasury Department

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

Tuesday, August 19, 1:00 p.m. ET – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Thursday, August 21, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

Monday – Thursday, August 18 – 21 – The SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The speakers include SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), and Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 8/15/25 Francis Kelly 8/15/25

The US/UK Trade Agreement: A One-Off Special or Precedent for Other Trade Deals

By Samantha Valentino, Global Market Risk Analyst

August 14, 2025

On June 16th, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order outlining the new United States-United Kingdom Prosperity Deal. This marks the first trade deal to be signed by the new Trump administration and the first signed since Trump announced global tariffs on “Liberation Day” ,April 2, 2025. While some details of the agreement include tangible commitments, it is mostly comprised of promises for future, undated action. More importantly, it was seen as a possible template for other trade deals, but this was not the case. Indeed, the US-UK trade deal appears to be a special deal that has not been offered to any other countries (so far).

The details of the trade agreement are as follows:

The UK agrees to buy more US goods, such as beef, ethanol, and agricultural products, and remove regulations that “unfairly discriminate” against American products.

The US has agreed to decrease car export tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 UK-produced cars to enter the US in a year. Any following cars will face an up to 25% tax. Additionally, the US committed to removing taxes on the aerospace industry from 10% to 0%- including engines and aircraft parts.

Additionally, the UK is the ONLY country to avoid the steel and aluminum global tariff of 50%, which the US will waive for the UK. Contingent on a Section 232 investigation, the United States will allow for special advantages for UK pharmaceuticals in US markets. They will also look to work through any future Section 232 concerns in the future, ensuring economic cooperation and predictability.

Pointedly, this is the first US deal that has focused on the car industry, and one of the reasons observers were hoping it would be reflective of where the US was going to come out in trade negotiations with Japan and South Korea, both major auto manufacturing companies. This is a big win for the UK, especially as it promises to stabilize and perhaps grow employment in that industry.

Additionally, the steel and pharmaceutical industries are looking at potential boosters from this deal. For the US, this deal is as significant as it reduces inequitable treatment in the UK for US producers and a boost in sales for the beef, ethanol, and agricultural sectors..  

Currently, the US has followed through in lowering tariffs for the car industry, but they have yet to lower steel tariffs. As noted above, much of the rest of the deal remains up to future deliberations.

However, this is still a notable trade deal because it affirms the positive relationship that President Trump has with the UK. Trump’s willingness to sign a trade deal with the UK and not the EU is significant and reveals his willingness to work towards a strong economic alliance with the UK. The US will likely pursue further trade deals with the UK, especially due to expressed disappointment with the UK’s current Digital Services Tax, which remained unchanged with this current trade deal.  

Watch for Trump’s second state visit to Windsor Castle, which is out of the ordinary, considering no other US president has ever been invited out for a second state visit. This visit is expected to take place in September and could yield more trade agreements or even talks of free trade. While the US only has free trade with 20 countries through 14 agreements and Trump’s universal 10% tariff is still in place, there could be future talks of free trade.

Fulcrum Perspectives

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U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

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The US/UK Trade Agreement: A One-Off Special or Precedent for Other Trade Deals

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