Fulcrum Perspectives
An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
It’s All About Wyoming This Week
August 18 - 22, 2025
‘The time has come’ for rates cuts”
– Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, August 23, 2024
Washington will be quiet this week as Congress remains out of session for the August recess and the bulk of lobbyists are on vacation, too. Instead, all the action will be in Wyoming this week – specifically, in Jackson Hole as the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts the annual Jackson Hole Symposium.
All eyes and ears will be on Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s economic outlook speech on Friday, with markets wondering: Will Powell repeat the above quote from his 2024 speech at the Symposium, cuing up a likely rate cut at September’s Federal Open Market Committee?
But that’s not all that is taking place around Jackson Hole this week: On the sidelines of the Economic Symposium will be the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025. There is scheduled to be something of a “who’s who” of regulators and members of Congress. Notably, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat discussing all things crypto, and Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be giving a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System.”
Also speaking will be Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) – who is going to be quarterbacking this fall the legislative aspects of President Trump’s recently released digital financial technology strategy – and Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) who chairs the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets (and is known on Capitol Hill as the “Crypto Queen,”) as well as Tyler Williams who is Counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on digital asset issues.
And that is about it for this coming week. Please let us know if you have any questions.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.
House of Representatives
The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
Tuesday, August 19, 2:10 p.m. – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech entitled “Fostering New Technology in the Banking System” at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.
Wednesday – Saturday, August 21 – 23 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosts the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at the Teton Village, Wyoming. The theme of this year’s Symposium is “Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” You can access all papers presented at the Symposium HERE.
Wednesday, August 20, 11:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on the topic of payments at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium 2025, Teton Village, Wyoming.
Friday, August 22, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on entitled “The Economic Outlook and Framework Review” at the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Moran, Wyoming.
U.S. Treasury Department
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
Tuesday, August 19, 1:00 p.m. ET – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will participate in a fireside chat at SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Thursday, August 21, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Think Tanks and Other Events
Monday – Thursday, August 18 – 21 – The SALT’s Wyoming Blockchain Symposium will be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The speakers include SEC Chair Paul Atkins, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), and Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
Recommended Weekend Reads
The Implications of the Global AI Boom, China’s Latest Engineering Marvel, The Spread of “Mega Force” Middle East Spending, and Why Bolivia’s Election is So Important
August 15 -17, 2025
Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.
The Implications of the Global AI Boom
How Artificial General Intelligence Could Affect the Rise and Fall of Nations The Rand Corporation
This report is intended to stimulate thinking among policymakers about possible impacts of the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) on geopolitics and the world order by highlighting potential future scenarios for AGI's governance and its effects on global power dynamics. In this report, the authors focus on a variety of impacts — some of which are perhaps unlikely but significant — arising from AGI's development and deployment that could fundamentally alter the existing geopolitical order. To drive thinking about these potential world-changing impacts, the authors develop eight illustrative scenarios based on the extent of centralization of AGI development and its geopolitical outcomes. These scenarios cover AGI impacts that empower the United States, that empower U.S. competitors, that cause a significant geopolitical shift, and that result in an interruption in the development of AGI. These scenarios are designed to demonstrate how the extent of centralization in AGI development is a crucial determinant of the geopolitical outcomes that might materialize. In more-centralized scenarios, either the United States or an adversary could gain significant advantages, whereas decentralized development might lead to a multilateral governance model or even geopolitical destabilization if nonstate actors become significantly more powerful because of the development of AGI.
‘Absolutely immense’: the companies on the hook for the $3tn AI building boom Financial Times
Meta is building “Prometheus” and “Hyperion”, Elon Musk’s xAI has “Colossus”, and OpenAI is developing “Stargate” — each a more than $100bn project to build the world’s most powerful supercomputer and usher in a new generation of artificial intelligence. But each of those gargantuan ventures is just a fraction of the spending required to build the data centers needed to power the AI era: one of the biggest movements of capital in modern history. “The amount of capital required is absolutely immense,” said Rob Horn, global head of infrastructure and asset-based credit at private equity group Blackstone, which manages an $85bn data center platform. “The scale of the opportunity is exhausting the capital of [any one financial] market and is requiring an all-of-the-above approach, with private capital playing a very large role.” Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta will spend more than $400bn on data centers in 2026 — on top of more than $350bn this year.
Trump's AI action plan pivots from guardrails to green lights Peterson Institute for International Economics
Seizing on a historic boom of investment in artificial intelligence (AI), President Donald Trump unveiled his administration’s AI Action Plan at the end of July, with a goal of accelerating the development and diffusion of AI in the US and around the world while discarding the Biden administration’s cautious approach to regulating AI. Trump’s plan covers wide ground from workforce and infrastructure to refining export controls viewed as barriers to AI development in the US and export of US technology abroad, although provisions addressing concerns over safety and national security risk management are also included. The plan targets environmental regulations that have delayed power and data center buildouts as well as a growing patchwork of state AI laws that could fragment the US AI market. Ignoring earlier criticism from Trump, it also recommends continued support for the Biden-backed Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act of 2022, which has achieved historic success in attracting investment to produce advanced semiconductors in the US. Missing, however, is any easing of the administration’s tough policy discouraging immigration, a problem because the US needs to keep relying heavily on foreign talent to compete with China’s strong pipeline of AI researchers.
GenAI Misinformation, Trust, and News Consumption: Evidence from a Field Experiment Filipe Campante/Ruben Durante/Felix Hagenmeister/Ananya Sen – NBER
Abstract: We study how AI-generated misinformation affects demand for trustworthy news, using data from a field experiment by a major German outlet, Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ). Readers were randomly assigned to a treatment highlighting the challenge of distinguishing real from AI-generated images. The treatment raised concern with misinformation (0.3 s.d.) and reduced trust in news (0.1 s.d.), including SZ. Importantly, it affected post-survey browsing behavior: daily visits to SZ digital content rose by 2.5% in the immediate aftermath of the treatment. Moreover, we find that subscriber retention increased by 1.1% after five months, corresponding to about a one-third drop in attrition rate. Results are consistent with a model where the relative value of trustworthy news sources increases with the prevalence of misinformation, which may thus boost engagement with those sources even while lowering trust in news content.
China
China’s Role in Global Innovation Is Changing Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
For many years, China was widely viewed as a fast follower, leveraging access to foreign technology, expanding its manufacturing capacity, and competing primarily through cost advantages. While that characterization may have once captured the essence of China’s role in the global economy, it is increasingly incomplete. A growing body of evidence suggests that China is transitioning from technology absorber to innovation leader in its own right. Across a range of indicators, China is now innovating and exporting technologies in sectors traditionally dominated by advanced economies, including the United States.1 This convergence is not merely the result of others moving on to new technologies. Rather, it reflects China’s deliberate and sustained investments in innovation, capabilities and industrial upgrading, part of a broader strategy to position itself as a peer competitor at the global technological frontier.
The Engineering Marvel That China Hopes Will Help Wean It Off Foreign Energy Wall Street Journal
China has begun the construction of a giant hydropower project at the earthquake-prone edge of the Tibetan plateau, a spectacular engineering feat that is central to Beijing’s enduring mission to become self-sufficient in critical areas such as energy. The $167 billion facility will require digging tunnels that plunge through high mountains to harness the power of a river that sharply descends through the deepest and possibly longest canyon on the planet. If its planners succeed—after shrugging off objections from neighbors—the project could generate triple the output of the world’s largest hydroelectric facility, China’s Three Gorges Dam, which is big enough to power around 40 million Chinese homes.
China's Achilles Heel Robin Brooks Substack
Brooks, a senior economist at the Brookings Institution, points out Everyone has an Achilles heel. The US’ Achilles heel is irresponsibly wide budget deficits, which - in the ongoing tariff confrontation - create large vulnerabilities that China very skillfully exploited earlier this year. China has an Achilles heel too, which is that its growth model is almost entirely predicated on exports. This year’s sharp rise in US tariffs is undermining this growth model meaningfully.
Geoeconomics
BRICS’ plans to replace the G7 are thin on the ground OMFIF
The hype about the demise of the G7 and the traditional system of financial governance has dominated the media in the last few years. However, the G7 is still going strong and the proposed alternative governance system – the Brics+ bloc – has not become operational. Governance is enacted through multilateral organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, through global banks, global financial markets, and regulations.
Optimal Tariffs with Geopolitical Alignment John Becko/Gene Grossman/Elhanan Helpman – NBER
Abstract: As geopolitical tensions intensify, great powers often turn to trade policy to influence international alignment. We examine the optimal design of tariffs in a world where large countries care not only about economic welfare but also about the political allegiance of smaller states. We consider both a unipolar setting, where a single hegemon uses preferential trade agreements to attract partners, and a bipolar world, where two great powers compete for influence. In both scenarios, we derive optimal tariffs that balance terms-of-trade considerations with strategic incentives to encourage political alignment. We find that when geopolitical concerns are active, the optimal tariff exceeds the classic Mill-Bickerdike level. In a bipolar world, optimal tariffs reflect both economic and political rivalry, and may be strategic complements or substitutes. A calibration exercise using U.N. voting patterns, an estimate of the cost of buying votes in the U.N., and military spending suggests that geopolitical motives can significantly amplify protectionist pressures and that the emergence of a second great power can contribute to a retreat from globalization.
Dollar Dominance Is Here to Stay World Politics Review
Six months into President Donald Trump’s second term, the conventional wisdom is clear: U.S. hegemony is in terminal decline, and the dollar’s run as the world’s dominant currency is ending. Between Trump’s frontal assault on democracy and the rule of law at home, and his aggressive protectionism and unilateralism abroad, uncertainty about U.S. economic and foreign policy and the future of the “liberal international order” are greater than ever. Fearful of becoming the next target of tariffs and sanctions, and eager to insulate themselves from the uncertainty of Trump’s United States, foreign governments and investors are increasingly eager for alternatives to the dollar. Indeed, demand for alternatives may be greater now than at any point in the past 50 years. But demand is one thing. Supply is another altogether. If there is going to be a major shift away from the dollar, someone must provide viable alternatives, and the reality is that there are only two possible actors who could do that: the European Union and China. Neither is remotely ready, willing or able to do so, and the reason is precisely why so many observers around the world are now worried about the dollar: domestic politics.
The Middle East
The ‘Mega Forces’ Spreading Middle East Wealth Across the Globe Bloomberg/Businessweek
When Iran launched a missile barrage at an American air base in Qatar this summer, it was one of the most direct attacks on US assets in the Middle East in years. Yet just hours after the projectiles were shot down in the night sky over Doha, it was business as usual in the country’s capital and financial hub. In neighboring Abu Dhabi, investments proceeded on track, and bankers in Dubai expressed confidence that the United Arab Emirates would sidestep any major fallout. In the weeks after the attack, Bloomberg News reported that American companies including BlackRock Inc. and Elon Musk’s xAI were discussing deals in Saudi Arabia. It will apparently take more than a few ballistic missiles to shake the business community’s confidence in the Middle East. With its low-tax regimes and growing pool of sovereign and family wealth—which now tops $5 trillion—the region has weathered all kinds of instability. Even as conflict in the area has greatly intensified since 2023, investors there are signaling that the Middle East is still open for business, and global companies are eager to accept their money.
The Americas
Bolivia braces for tense elections as ruling party implodes ACLED
The dispute between Evo Morales and current President Luis Arce has triggered deadly violence in defense of Morales’ cause, which signals the power of his supporters to question the legitimacy of an election that excludes the former president.
How the US and Colombia can tackle crime, migration, and fallout from Venezuela’s crisis The Atlantic Council
While the United States seeks to prevent more migration from Venezuela, the strain of hosting 2.8 million Venezuelan migrants and refugees is putting Colombia on the back foot in its fight against transnational criminal groups. Bilateral efforts to improve security cooperation, reduce irregular migration sustainably, and improve opportunities for Venezuelan migrants and refugees in Colombia can benefit both countries. Colombia must balance between asserting regional leadership in managing the Venezuelan crisis—which requires a clear strategy—and keeping a communication channel open without legitimating Nicolas Maduro’s rule.
The US/UK Trade Agreement: A One-Off Special or Precedent for Other Trade Deals
By Samantha Valentino, Global Market Risk Analyst
August 14, 2025
On June 16th, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order outlining the new United States-United Kingdom Prosperity Deal. This marks the first trade deal to be signed by the new Trump administration and the first signed since Trump announced global tariffs on “Liberation Day” ,April 2, 2025. While some details of the agreement include tangible commitments, it is mostly comprised of promises for future, undated action. More importantly, it was seen as a possible template for other trade deals, but this was not the case. Indeed, the US-UK trade deal appears to be a special deal that has not been offered to any other countries (so far).
The details of the trade agreement are as follows:
The UK agrees to buy more US goods, such as beef, ethanol, and agricultural products, and remove regulations that “unfairly discriminate” against American products.
The US has agreed to decrease car export tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for the first 100,000 UK-produced cars to enter the US in a year. Any following cars will face an up to 25% tax. Additionally, the US committed to removing taxes on the aerospace industry from 10% to 0%- including engines and aircraft parts.
Additionally, the UK is the ONLY country to avoid the steel and aluminum global tariff of 50%, which the US will waive for the UK. Contingent on a Section 232 investigation, the United States will allow for special advantages for UK pharmaceuticals in US markets. They will also look to work through any future Section 232 concerns in the future, ensuring economic cooperation and predictability.
Pointedly, this is the first US deal that has focused on the car industry, and one of the reasons observers were hoping it would be reflective of where the US was going to come out in trade negotiations with Japan and South Korea, both major auto manufacturing companies. This is a big win for the UK, especially as it promises to stabilize and perhaps grow employment in that industry.
Additionally, the steel and pharmaceutical industries are looking at potential boosters from this deal. For the US, this deal is as significant as it reduces inequitable treatment in the UK for US producers and a boost in sales for the beef, ethanol, and agricultural sectors..
Currently, the US has followed through in lowering tariffs for the car industry, but they have yet to lower steel tariffs. As noted above, much of the rest of the deal remains up to future deliberations.
However, this is still a notable trade deal because it affirms the positive relationship that President Trump has with the UK. Trump’s willingness to sign a trade deal with the UK and not the EU is significant and reveals his willingness to work towards a strong economic alliance with the UK. The US will likely pursue further trade deals with the UK, especially due to expressed disappointment with the UK’s current Digital Services Tax, which remained unchanged with this current trade deal.
Watch for Trump’s second state visit to Windsor Castle, which is out of the ordinary, considering no other US president has ever been invited out for a second state visit. This visit is expected to take place in September and could yield more trade agreements or even talks of free trade. While the US only has free trade with 20 countries through 14 agreements and Trump’s universal 10% tariff is still in place, there could be future talks of free trade.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
President Trump’s Big Week in Financial Services: Opens Up 401(k)’s Investments, Signs an Executive Order on Debanking, Names a New Fed Governor, and Meets Wall Street CEOs to Get Advice on Privatizing the GSEs
August 11 - 15, 2025
We warned you it would not be a quiet August in Washington. Despite Congress and most Washington movers and shakers being on vacation, President Trump was very busy on a number of financial fronts. On Thursday, he signed an Executive Order (EO) to allow 401(k)s to invest in private equity, cryptocurrency, and real estate. That EO instructs the Department of Labor and the Securities and Exchange Commission to provide guidance to employers and plan administrators on such investments.
The President quickly followed that up with another EO directing bank regulators to look into whether banks discriminate on political and religious grounds that lead to them “debanking” clients – something that happened to Trump after the January 6th riot on Capitol Hill.
We also learned this week that the President met with Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan and Citi CEO Jane Fraser to get their ideas on how to privatize the two giant government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The House Financial Services Committee let it be known this past week that they intend to take up legislation in early 2026 to refloat both entities, which were taken over by the US government after the 2008 financial crisis.
And to top it all off, the President was able to name a new Federal Reserve Board Governor following the resignation of Governor Andriana Kugler. Trump named the current Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, Stephen Miran, to fill her seat (which is set to expire in January). While the addition of Miran to the Federal Reserve Board will not necessarily tip the balance of governors voting for a rate cut - Miran won’t be confirmed by the Senate in time for the September Federal Open Markets Committee (FMOC) meeting – it will tip the balance on any votes the Fed Board makes on regulatory issues. The FMOC is composed of all seven members of the Board of Governors and the President of the New York Fed, plus four rotating regional Fed governors. But when the Fed votes on any regulatory issues – like the recent large bank capital rule – it is only the seven-member board of governors casting votes. Long story short: Miran’s joining the board is a big win for Vice Chair Michelle Bowman as she will have a majority of support as she moves to reshape and reform the larger financial regulatory architecture.
The only other big news of the week was that a federal judge ruled the Federal Reserve exceeded its authority on setting limits on debt card interchange fees – a victory for merchants that had opposed the banks and the Fed on the rule. Undoubtedly, this is headed to the appellate court and then probably the Supreme Court.
So what is going to happen this coming week? Right now, there is really not much on the calendar among the regulators other than the Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation holding a board meeting. And the House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institution Subcommittee is holding a field hearing in Riverside, Ohio, on “Securing the Supply Chain.”
And that is about it. We hope you have a great week.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 1.
House of Representatives
· The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2. However, the House Financial Services Committee’s National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee field hearing on "Securing the Supply Chain: The Defense Production Act in Focus." The hearing is being held at the National Museum of the United States Air Force in Riverside, Ohio.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
· Thursday, August 14, 10:00 a.m. – The FCA Board will hold a meeting to review the Annual Report on the Farm Credit System’s Young, Beginning, and Small Farmers and Ranchers Mission Performance. They will also get a brief on the Report on Startup Costs for New Farmers and Ranchers.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· Wednesday, August 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Heritage Foundation is holding a panel discussion entitled “The Future of Farming: Exploring a Pro-Health, Pro-Farmer Agenda.”
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
The Global Week Ahead
Trump to Host Putin in Alaska in a Bid for Ukraine Peace, The Deadline for the End of the US–China Tariff Pause Looms, and Markets Get Ready for A Busy Economic Calendar
August 10 - 17, 2025
While most of us were looking forward to a quiet August and some time away from the office and our computer screens, the month is proving to be jam-packed with major geopolitical events and a steady stream of breaking news headlines.
With that in mind, this coming week, arguably one of the biggest events of the year will take place when President Trump hosts Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine. The question of the day is whether or not Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will be invited to attend the Friday meeting, too, as European leaders are urging Trump to extend an invitation to him.
Considering the initial terms of any ceasefire seem to be allowing Russia to keep Ukrainian land it has seized over the last three years - including Crimea - you would think the Ukrainian President should be present. Zelensky has already rejected the idea of ceding any Ukrainian land to Russia.
Markets and Western leaders intently watch the lead-up to Friday’s meeting (markets and policymakers seem to be bracing for the high likelihood of surprise twists, turns, and demands from Putin in the next few days before the summit) and what might or might not come of it all.
But markets are also focused on Tuesday when the pause on tariffs between China and the US is set to expire. The pause put in place by President Trump brought the tariffs down from 145% to 30% for US tariffs and from 145% to 10% for Chinese tariffs on US goods. As to whether President Trump will again extend the pause is unclear at this point, but seen as likely – perhaps another 90 days – as a way to further warm up relations between Beijing and Washington.
But one complication could be President Trump’s ramping up of tariffs on India for purchasing sanctioned Russian oil, which in turn impacts China as it will likely lead to higher oil prices and raise the question of when Trump will place tariffs on China, which also purchases sanctioned Russian oil and gas.
Another aspect of the Trump tariff efforts is likely to be announced sometime this week, too, when the President announces the results of Section 232 investigations in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. It is expected he will slap heavy tariffs on both sectors, perhaps as high as 150% on pharmaceuticals and 100% on semiconductors.
Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a busy week of data releases and reports. In the US, the July CPI report is out on Tuesday, PPI is out Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment for August is out Friday. On top of these three big reports, we will see retail sales figures and industrial production numbers out on Friday.
In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Monday. China released inflation data on Saturday (which was reported as being flat). This coming Friday, China will be releasing its house price index, industrial production numbers, retail sales, and unemployment figures. And Japan will be releasing PPI on Wednesday and Q2 GDP figures on Friday.
Moving over to Europe, Germany’s ZEW survey and CPI are released on Tuesday, and the UK releases Q2 GDP figures on Thursday.
Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:
Sunday, August 10, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, August 11, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: Maritime security: Prevention, innovation and international cooperation to address emerging challenges.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Donald Trump will hold a press conference to address crime in Washington, D.C. Trump may announce his intention to call out the National Guard to help enforce a crackdown on crime.
· Peru's President Dina Boluarte visits Japan and Indonesia.
· The US Congress is in recess for the month of August and returns September 2.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Mexico Industrial Production (June)
· Canada BoC Market Participants Survey
· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Vietnam's General Secretary To Lam and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will hold a bilateral summit part of Lam's four-day state visit to South Korea through Wednesday. Lam will be the first foreign leader hosted by Lee since the South Korean president took office in June, and the visit comes at a time of blossoming bilateral ties.
· Today is Mountain Day in Japan. Financial markets are closed.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
· Indonesia Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)
· Malaysia Construction Output Q2/ Unemployment Rate (June)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The Salzburg Festival 2025 begins and runs through August 31.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Romania Balance of Trade (June)
· Slovakia Construction Output (June)
· Turkey Industrial Production (June)/ Auto Production (July)/ Auto Sales (July)
· Italy Inflation Rate (July)/ Balance of Trade (June)
· Slovenia Industrial Production (June)
· Belarus Inflation Rate (July)
· Russia Balance of Trade (June)
· Greece Unemployment Rate (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Consumer Confidence (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Chad.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Manufacturing Production (June)
· Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)
· Ethiopia Inflation Rate (July)
Tuesday, August 12, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Yemen).
· OPEC releases its monthly report on oil production.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The temporary pause agreed to between the US and China on trade tariffs expires.
· Uruguayan unions will conduct a partial strike to oppose the wage adjustment for public sector workers.
· Mexico hosts a U.N. conference on the status of women in Latin America and the Caribbean.
· In French Guiana, the Ariane 6 rocket launch, carrying EUMETSAT’s Metop-SGA1 satellite, is the first of the next generation of European polar-orbiting weather satellites.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin addresses the Health Management Academy at the Four Seasons Hotel Chicago.
· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ CPI (July)/ Redbook (August/09)/ Fed Schmid Speech/ WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (July)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (August/08)
· Brazil Inflation Rate (July)
· Canada Building Permits (June)
· Paraguay Balance of Trade (July)
· Uruguay Industrial Production (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia NAB Business Confidence (July)
· India Inflation Rate (July)
· Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q2/ PPI (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Norway’s sovereign wealth fund releases an updated list of its holdings in the 9,000 companies it is invested in worldwide, plus second-quarter results, at a press conference in Arendalsuka, Norway.
· Armenia and the US will hold joint military exercise in Armenia – The Eagle Partner 2025 – through August 20.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (July)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (July)/ Claimant Count Change (July)
· Ireland Construction PMI (July)
· Romania Inflation Rate (July)
· Turkey Current Account (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)
· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August)/ ZEW Current Conditions (August)/ Current Account (June)
· Serbia Inflation Rate (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)
· Jordan Inflation Rate (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Unemployment Rate Q2/ Gold Production (June)/ Mining Production (June)/ Unemployed Persons Q2
· Kenya Interest Rate Decision
· Angola Wholesale Prices (June)
Wednesday, August 13, 2025
Global
· The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its monthly oil production report for all OECD member countries.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at the Greenville Chamber of Commerce in Greenville, South Carolina.
· Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks at a lunch hosted by the state central bank alongside the Franklin County Economic Development Authority
· Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks on regional monetary policy at a lunch, hosted by the Greater Springfield Chamber of Commerce.
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/08)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/08)
· Brazil Retail Sales (June)/ Business Confidence (August)
· Colombia Consumer Confidence (July)
· Canada BoC Summary of Deliberations
· Argentina Inflation Rate (July)
· Ecuador Balance of Trade (June)
· Peru Balance of Trade (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (July)
· Japan Reuters Tankan Index (August)/ PPI (July)/ Machine Tool Orders (July)
· South Korea Unemployment Rate (July)
· Singapore Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment MAY
· Australia Home Loans Q2/ Investment Lending for Homes Q2/ RBA Chart Pack/ Wage Price Index Q2
· Thailand Interest Rate Decision
· China Vehicle Sales (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Germany Wholesale Prices (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
· Spain Inflation Rate (July)
· France IEA Oil Market Report
· Poland GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)
· Romania Current Account (June)
· Serbia Current Account (June)
· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Inflation Rate (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The African Union – AIP Water Investment Summit 2025 begins in Cape Town, South Africa and runs through August 15.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Retail Sales (June)
Thursday, August 14, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a TCC meeting on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Venezuelan unions will stage demonstrations against government repression in Caracas..
Economic Reports/Events –
· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a webinar conversation hosted by the National Association for Business Economics.
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/09)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (August/02)/ PPI (July)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August/08)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/14)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/13)
· Colombia Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (July)
· Peru Interest Rate Decision
· El Salvador Inflation Rate (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· In Hong Kong, the trial of Hong Kong media mogul Jimmy Lai reconvenes for closing arguments. The founder of the pro-democracy news outlet Apple Daily, which was forced to close in 2021, has been held in solitary confinement for nearly 1,700 days under the controversial national security law that China imposed on the city. Western governments and human rights groups have called for his release.
· Pakistan celebrates Independence Day, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)
· Australia Employment Change (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ Participation Rate (July)
· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases
· India WPI Food Index (July)/ WPI Fuel (July)/ WPI Inflation (July)/ WPI Manufacturing (July)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (July)
· Kazakhstan GDP (July)
· China New Yuan Loans (July)/ M2 Money Supply (July)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (July)/ Total Social Financing (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (July)/ GDP (June)/ Goods Trade Balance (June)/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Business Investment Q2/ Construction Orders Q2/ Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)/ Manufacturing Production (June)/ Labour Productivity Q2/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (July)
· Romania GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)
· Hungary Construction Output (June)/ Industrial Production (June)
· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (July)
· France Inflation Rate (July)
· Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Turkey Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)
· Poland Inflation Rate (July)
· Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Euro Area Employment Change Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)
· Russia Current Account Q2
· Ukraine Balance of Trade (June)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Inflation Rate (July)
· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (July)/ Wholesale Prices (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (June)/ SACCI Business Confidence (July)
· Egypt Unemployment Rate Q2
Friday, August 15, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· President Donald Trump to meet his Russian counterpart, President Vladimir Putin, in Alaska to discuss a ceasefire deal for the Ukraine conflict.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Canada Manufacturing Sales (June)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (June)/ Wholesale Sales (June)
· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (August)/ Export Prices (July)/ Import Prices (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Capacity Utilization (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Manufacturing Production (July)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment/ Expectations/ Conditions Prel (August)/ Business Inventories (June)/ NOPA Crush Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/15)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (June)/ Foreign Bond Investment (June)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (June)
· Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q2/ ISE Economic Activity (June)
· Peru GDP Growth Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Prime Minister Narendra Modi gives a speech at the Red Fort in Delhi to mark the anniversary of India’s independence from British rule in 1947.
· Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is set to deliver his first State of the Nation Address, in which he will explain the government's priority programs for the coming year. The speech will also include key economic targets, highlighting the administration's fiscal direction under his leadership. The address comes ahead of Indonesia's 80th Independence Day celebrations on Sunday.
· Madagascar will host the 45th summit of the Southern African Development Community in Antananarivo. The members of the Community include Angola, Botswana. Comoros , Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, Lesotho, Madagascar , Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique. Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa. Tanzania. Zambia and Zimbabwe.
· Beijing hosts the 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games, the first global sporting event dedicated solely to humanoid robots, which runs until Sunday.
· Today is Independence Day in South Korea. Financial markets are closed.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (July)/ Food Inflation (July)/ Visitor Arrivals (June)
· Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (August/09)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q2/ GDP External Demand Q2/ GDP Price Index Q2/ GDP Private Consumption Q2/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August/09)/ Capacity Utilization (June)/ Industrial Production (June)
· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (August)
· China House Price Index (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)/ FDI (YTD) (July)
· Malaysia Current Account Q2/ GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q2
· India Bank Loan Growth (August/01)/ Deposit Growth (August/01)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/08)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)
· Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (July)
· Philippines Cash Remittances (June)
· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (July)/ Services PMI (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Liechtenstein National Day, a public holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Slovakia Inflation Rate (July)
· Switzerland GDP Growth Rate Q2
· Ireland Balance of Trade (June)
· Serbia Building Permits (June)
· Turkey Budget Balance (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· South Africa will hold its first-ever National Convention with political, business, and civil rights groups.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M3 Money Supply (July)
· Nigeria Food Inflation (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
Saturday, August 16, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
§ India celebrates Janmashtami, a Hindu festival marking the birth of Krishna, the eighth avatar of Vishnu, featuring dramatic re-enactments of the life of Krishna throughout Mathura and Vrindavan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, August 17, 2025
Global
· Today is the 80th anniversary of the publication of George Orwell’s Animal Farm.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Bolivia holds presidential and parliamentary elections. The elections are shaped by significant internal divisions within the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party, as current President Luis Arce and former president Evo Morales, who has been barred from running, vie for influence.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel GDP Growth Annualized 1st Est Q2/ Unemployment Rate (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Gabon.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads
Mexico’s Oil Giant is at a Crossroads, Can Iran Rebuild its Nuclear Program, and Just How Desperate is their Leadership?, Why US House Prices Stayed Resilient Versus the Rest of the World, and America’s Population Crash
August 8 - 11, 2025
Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. Have a great weekend.
The Americas
Pemex Is at a Crossroads Americas Quarterly
Mexico’s government announced a deal to support the deteriorating finances of the state-owned oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos SA (Pemex). By issuing instruments called pre-capitalized notes, the Sheinbaum administration hopes to stabilize the financial performance of a company that has been reporting losses for at least the last 10 years. However, Pemex is besieged not only by mounting financial liabilities but also by a series of issues that compromise its future and, to some extent, its current operations.
Assessing the Impact of China-Russia Coordination in the Media and Information Space Ryan Berg/Center for Strategic and International Studies
Since the announcement between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping of a “no limits partnership” on the eve of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, concerns have swirled over the potential for a new axis of revisionist authoritarian powers. Spearheaded by Moscow and Beijing, such an alliance could not only threaten the Eurasian landmass but reach across oceans to challenge the United States in the Western Hemisphere. However, the full implications and scope of the China-Russia partnership, particularly as it may pertain to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). The CSIS Americas Program designed a novel tabletop exercise to better understand the consequences. The findings found that when given the opportunity to coordinate, China and Russia eagerly did so and were able to secure a favorable outcome to the initial crisis. However, on the subsequent game turn, the United States, which had invested in building more long-term influence in the region, nevertheless secured its preferred policy outcome in both iterations of the game This suggests that U.S. influence in LAC appears to remain sizeable, but closer China-Russia cooperation should be accorded more gravity than it currently receives in policy discussions.
Iran’s Future
Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Program—Can It Rebuild? The Center for Strategic and International Studies
In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22, “Operation Midnight Hammer,” policymakers and experts launched into a heated debate not only about the physical damage of the strikes but also about their impact on Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions. Recent satellite imagery allows us to have a more realistic picture of the extent of the damage from the Israeli and U.S. strikes. It also provides insights into Iran’s initial efforts to rebuild its nuclear program and can help identify potential pathways for developing a covert nuclear weapons program, including establishing a third site to process its existing stockpile of 400 kilograms (kg) of highly enriched uranium (HEU). We determined that the U.S. and Israeli strikes inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear program by destroying key infrastructure and human capital. Israel’s broader campaign against Iran also targeted military leaders, Iranian missiles, and defense industrial base targets. The precision of these operations revealed a deep penetration of intelligence, particularly by Mossad, into Iran’s nuclear program. The strikes did not, however, completely eliminate the nuclear program, with some infrastructure remaining intact, and the status of the HEU stockpile remains unknown. But whether or not Iran rebuilds its nuclear program is ultimately a political decision and will depend on three sets of factors: decision-making in Tehran, diplomacy with the United States, and Israel.
Iran’s Dangerous Desperation: What Comes After the 12-Day War Suzanne Maloney/Foreign Affairs
As the writer James Baldwin once remarked, “The most dangerous creation of any society is the man who has nothing to lose.” That description might now apply to the men who preside over the ruins of Iran’s revolutionary system. With their proxy network degraded, their air defenses demolished, and their great-power alignments exposed as hollow, the debilitated guardians of the Islamic Republic require new tools to keep the wolves at bay. It is difficult to predict with confidence how factional dynamics will evolve in the aftermath of the regime’s humbling; further surprises may be in store. But there can be little doubt that the most powerful set of players in Tehran will seek to reconstitute the remnants of its nuclear program and reassert the regime’s dominance over Iranian society.
U.S. Economics and Demographic Changes
Why U.S. House Prices Stayed Resilient While Prices Fell in Other Countries Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Following decades of low and stable inflation, the period from 2021 to 2024 marked a dramatic global surge in inflation and an unprecedented cycle of monetary tightening. This recent monetary tightening cycle created a puzzle: Why did housing markets across developed countries respond so differently to the same global pressures? For example, during the 2020-21 expansion, the U.S. and Canada experienced house price appreciation of more than 25% while Sweden recorded increases approximately half as large. (See the first figure.) But when central banks began aggressive tightening in 2022, a striking divergence emerged. The U.S. housing market showed remarkable resilience, with only moderate price adjustments despite Federal Reserve rate hikes that pushed mortgage rates from 2.8% to 6.8%. In stark contrast, Sweden and Canada experienced sharp corrections, with Swedish prices falling substantially below their 2019 baseline levels.
Sprinters, Marathoners & Skeptics on the Future of AI & Power War on the Rocks
Will AI eat the world and America’s defense budget? I think of those who toil at the intersection of AI and national security as being divided into three camps: Sprinters hold the most aggressive assumptions and believe profound disruption via artificial general intelligence is imminent; marathoners believe the technology will diffuse selectively, sector-by-sector; and skeptics draw analogies to the dot-com bubble. America’s near-term AI strategy should align with one of these three approaches. If the sprinter scenario holds, the United States should go all-out to rapidly acquire artificial general intelligence — defined here as human-level intelligence. If the skeptics are right, however, then the United States should do virtually the opposite and avoid overbuilding and overextension. If the marathoners are most correct, then the United States will conduct a complicated, long-term technological competition with a country four times its population.
Consumer Inflation Expectations Across Surveys and over Time Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Different survey-based measures of consumer inflation expectations have diverged in recent months. This Economic Commentary compares these measures and the survey questions underlying them. Our analysis suggests that the divergences across survey-based measures of inflation expectations can be attributed to various features and sample characteristics specific to each survey.
Changes in Milestones of Adulthood U.S. Census Bureau
ABSTRACT: This study uses nationally representative data from 2005 and 2023 to examine changes in young adults’ (ages 25-34 years old) experiences reaching five milestones of adulthood: living away from their parents, completing their education, labor force participation, marrying, and living with a child. Changes are considered for individual milestones, as well as for combinations of milestones. The types and combinations of milestones young adults experience have seen major shifts in the past several decades, with growth in the shares experiencing economic markers, and reductions in those who experience family formation events. between 2005 and 2023, the fraction of Americans aged 25–34 who completed their education rose from 74% to 83%, but the percentage of “ever married” fell from 62% to 44%, and the percentage with “a child in the household” fell from 55% to 39%.
America’s Fertility Crash Reaches A New Low The Economist
In recent years, birth rates have dropped only slightly in places where they have long been low. Four of the five least fertile states in 2014, including Connecticut and Massachusetts, have seen their rates decrease by less than the national average. It is in states that have been historically the most fertile where the fall has been precipitous; Alaska, North Dakota and Utah have seen some of the steepest declines. All told, states that had above average fertility rates in 2014 are responsible for more than 80% of the collapse in American birth rates over the past decade.
As US population growth slows, we need to reset expectations for economic data Peterson Institute for International Economics
US population growth has slowed sharply in the last year and a half, as the immigration surge of the early 2020s has ended and the population continues to age. Fewer jobs are needed to keep up with the growth of the labor force, and growth rates of output and consumption will fall even if per capita output and consumption hold steady. The total US population is growing at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent, down from 1 percent in late 2023. With slower population growth, any given level of monthly payroll growth, consumption growth, or output growth reflects a stronger economy than it did a year ago. Population growth is not only slowing; it has also become more volatile and harder to estimate. It is likely that current population estimates for 2025 that statistical agencies are incorporating into economic data are too high and will be revised downward; current population estimates imply much higher immigration in 2025 than is likely under current administration policy. Economic data will need to be reinterpreted and revised in line with future adjustments to population estimates.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The White House Releases Digital Financial Technology Report, Fed Governor Kugler Steps Down, the SEC Takes a Road Trip While the Rest of Washington Goes on Vacation
August 4 - 8, 2025
Congress is gone until early September, and lawyers, lobbyists, and public affairs experts are streaming out of the Capital for vacation. There is not a lot going on this week in the financial regulatory space other than Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaking at the Kansas Bankers Association.
But last week ended up being a blockbuster of regulatory activity before vacations started. First, the White House released its long-awaited report “Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Financial Technology.” The report is chock-full of orders for the SEC and CFTC to begin the process of further refining the crypto regulatory world and recommendations for Congress to move on legislation.
The report came on the heels of a major speech by SEC Chair Paul Akins launching a new initiative at the SEC seeking to update the financial markets and its structure. Dubbed “Project Crypto” the overall will touch all aspects of the financial markets the SEC regulates.
But we also saw at the CFTC another setback for Chair-nominee Brian Quintenz’s confirmation – this time being the White House asking the Senate Agriculture Committee to hold up on a committee confirmation vote for unexplained reasons. A variety of wild reasons are being pointed to being the cause ranging from the Winklevoss twins complaining about Quintenz to President Trump to forces inside leading emails putting Quintenz in a bad light (the best read-out of the situation can be found in July 31 edition of Capitol Account – still by the far the best in-depth regulatory source you can find out there.). Whatever the reason, Quintenz is not likely going to get confirmed until late September or sometime in October at the earliest.
Also last week, Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler announced her intention to step down from the Fed five months early. This gives President Trump the opportunity to put one more friendly vote on the Fed. What we are waiting for is to see if another Fed Governor steps down soon, too. We have reason to believe another has raised his hand inside the Fed to Chair Jay Powell. When that resignation comes, we do not know. But it is coming.
As we said above, there really is not much going on this week in Washington, as you can see below. We hope you have a great week.
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
· The Senate is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 1.
House of Representatives
· The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.
Federal Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
· Wednesday, August 6, 2:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the U.S and Global Economy at A Central Bank Perspective on the Evolving Global Landscape Conference (virtual). Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins will also speak.
· Thursday, August 7, 10:00 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic's takes part in a virtual fireside chat during a session with the Florida Institute of CFOs.
· Saturday, August 9, 12:15 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the Kansas Bankers Association (KBA) CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado.
U.S. Treasury Department
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
· August 4 – December 5 – The SEC’s Crypto Task Force begins holding regional roundtables around the country to hear from representatives of crypto-related projects that have 10 or fewer employees and are less than two years old.
· Thursday, August 7, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Think Tanks and Other Events
· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.
The Global Week Ahead
Trump Threatens Greater Sanctions on Russia While Sending An Envoy to Talk With Putin – and Nuclear Subs Off Russia’s Coast, The Tariff Wars Intensify for Some Countries, and the Bank of England Decides on Rates
August 3 - 10, 2025
It is summer holiday time in most northern hemisphere countries, with heads of state and parliaments out for most of the month of August, getting some rest and relaxation. But there is still plenty going on geopolitically – perhaps the most important being President Trump’s ratcheting up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to sit down and start negotiating a peace treaty with Ukraine. Trump has at one point given Putin until Thursday to agree to talks or the US will consider massive new sanctions on Russia’s oil exports.
Additionally, last week, Trump announced he was sending two nuclear submarines to be positioned “in the appropriate regions” in response to remarks from former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Medvedev holds the mostly ceremonial post of Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council – an institution with no power or decision-making ability – had said on a Telegram posting that "If some words from the former president of Russia trigger such a nervous reaction from the high-and-mighty president of the United States, then Russia is doing everything right and will continue to proceed along its own path” and that Trump should remember “how dangerous the fabled ‘Dead Hand” can be” – a reference to a secret Russian command system designed to launch nuclear missiles if the Russian leadership is killed by an enemy strike. Medvedev is known for his highly provocative tweets toward the West, which tend to get more threatening and wacky as the evening progresses (if you get what we mean).
The other big geopolitical event of the week is President Trump’s tough new tariffs on Brazil, Switzerland, India, Canada, and other nations that have not successfully completed negotiations with the US going into effect. And the other 10-15 percent tariffs on those major trading partners that have cut a deal with the US are expected to go into effect, too.
Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, aside from the trade tariffs and the prospect of new deals being announced, the big event of the week is the Bank of England deciding on interest rates on Thursday. There are very few central banker speeches this week (perhaps everyone is saving their voices for speeches at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium August 22-24).
The major economic reports in the US this week include factory orders on Monday and services ISM and trade balance data on Tuesday. Also coming out are nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs due Thursday.
Turning to Asia, China’s trade balance is published on Thursday, and inflation figures on Friday. Japan reports wage growth on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan releases its summary of opinions from the July meeting on Friday.
And in Europe, Germany releases inflation figures, GDP growth, and factory order figures on Wednesday, while Switzerland releases its CPI on Monday. Europe will also see a slew of corporate earnings reports this week.
Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:
Sunday, August 3, 2025
Global
· The OPEC+ monthly meeting (virtual) is held.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos begins a state visit in India.
· China and Russia begin Joint Sea-2025 naval exercise off the coast of Vladivostok in the Sea of Japan through Wednesday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian concludes a two-day visit to Pakistan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Monday, August 4, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The US Congress is in recess for the month of August. They return on September 2.
· Today is Natal Day in Canada, which honors the province of Nova Scotia.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (July)/ BCB Focus Market Readout/ Net Payrolls (June)
· Mexico Consumer Confidence (July)
· USA Factory Orders (June)/ Total Vehicle Sales (July)
· Paraguay Inflation Rate (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan will hold a Diet is expected to meet to discuss the recent U.S.-Japan trade deal, which may spur new trade demands from Tokyo.
· South Korea will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation's Digital and Artificial Intelligence Ministerial Meeting through August 6.
· The Thailand-Cambodia General Border Committee will meet in Malaysia through August 7 in an effort to further solidify a peace treaty.
· Vietnamese President Luong Cuong will visit Egypt and Angola through August 9.
· Today is Cooks Island Constitution Day.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· The EU Parliament is on summer recess and returns August 22. Meanwhile, the UK Parliament is in recess until September 1, the French Parliament is in recess until September 1, and the German Bundestag (Parliament) is in recess until September 9, .
· Today is the Summer Bank Holiday in Scotland.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Romania PPI (June)
· Switzerland Inflation Rate (July)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (July)
· Spain Unemployment Change (July)
· Turkey Inflation Rate (July)/ PPI (July)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)
· Slovenia Balance of Trade (June)
· France New Car Registrations (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Israeli President Isaac Herzog will begin a three-day visit to the Baltic countries.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Jordan PPI (June)
· Pakistan Balance of Trade (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Founder’s Day in Ghana, honoring Dr. Kwame Nkumak who was the country’s first president.
·
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ M2 Money Supply (June)
Tuesday, August 5, 2025
Global
· The Third UN Conference on Landlocked Developing Countries will take place in Awaza, Turkmenistan through August 8.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
Economic Reports/Events –
· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)
· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)
· USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Redbook (August/02)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ISM Services PMI (July)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index/ Total Household Debt Q2/ API Crude Oil & Gasoline Stock Change (August/01)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (July)
· Colombia Exports (June)/ PPI (July)
· Uruguay Inflation Rate (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Japan will hold a short Diet session today, during which the ruling party's right wing may table a vote to seek Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's ouster.
· The Ketagalan Forum on Indo-Pacific Security begins in Taipei, Taiwan.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)
· Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (July)/ Household Spending (June)
· Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)
· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (July)
· Singapore S&P Global PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Philippines Inflation Rate (July)
· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (July)
· Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q2
· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (July)
· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (August)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)/ Vehicle Sales (July)
· France Industrial Production (June)/ Budget Balance (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)
· Spain Industrial Production (June)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)
· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)
· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)
· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (July)/ PPI (June)
· Great Britain New Car Sales (July)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)
· Serbia PPI (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (July)
· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (July)
· Israel Business Confidence (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Ghana’s President John Mahama hosts African political leaders and policymakers at the Africa Health Sovereignty Summit in Accra.
· Today is Independence Day in Burkina Faso.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt S&P Global PMI (July)
· South Africa S&P Global PMI (July)
· Ghana Inflation Rate (July)
Wednesday, August 6, 2025
Global
The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the 1540 Committee (the UN Security Council committee focused on preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· The new U.S. 40% tariff on Brazilian goods goes into effect at midnight. which compounds the current 10% duty, goes into force. Also, going into force will be of higher custom duties on EU, Switzerland, Thailand, and Vietnam.
· Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vasquez Morales gives press conference about waterway's future as BlackRock seeks to secure the purchase of two ports on either end of the canal.
· Today is Independence Day in Bolivia, a national holiday.
· Today is Independence Day in Jamaica.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook gives a speech on the U.S and Global Economy at A Central Bank Perspective on the Evolving Global Landscape Conference (virtual) hosted by the Reserve Bank of Boston. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins will also speak.
· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (August/01)/ MBA Purchase Index (August/01)/ EIA Gasoline & Crude Oil Stocks Change (August/01)
· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (July)
· Ecuador Inflation Rate (July)
· Brazil Balance of Trade (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the 80th anniversary of the atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima.
· Philippine senators are set to convene to decide whether to proceed with the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, a week after the country's top court dismissed a previous impeachment attempt.
Economic Reports/Events –
· New Zealand Employment Change Q2/ Unemployment Rate Q2/ Labour Costs Index Q2/ Participation Rate Q2
· Australia Ai Group Industry Index (July)/ Ai Group Construction Index (July)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (July)
· Japan Average Cash Earnings (June)/ Overtime Pay (June)/ BoJ JGB Purchases
· Philippines Unemployment Rate (June)
· Vietnam Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Direct Investment (July)/ Industrial Production (July)/ Inflation Rate (July)/ Retail Sales (July)/ Tourist Arrivals (July)
· Thailand Inflation Rate (July)/ Consumer Confidence (July)
· The Reserve Bank of India Interest Rate Decision/ Cash Reserve Ratio/ M3 Money Supply (July/25)
· Taiwan Inflation Rate (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Today is the earliest deadline given by President Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin to respond to demands for a peace deal to end the Ukraine War.
· Poland's president-elect, Karol Nawrocki, officially takes office.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Ireland AIB Services PMI (July)
· Germany Factory Orders (June)/ HCOB Construction PMI (July)
· Romania Retail Sales (June)
· Hungary Industrial Production (June)/ Retail Sales (June)
· France Private Non-Farm Payrolls / HCOB Construction PMI (July)
· Slovakia Retail Sales (June)
· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Retail Sales (June)
· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (July)/ Industrial Production (June)
· Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (July)
· Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· The U.S.-Africa Energy Forum will take place in Houston, Texas, through August 7.
· Today is the deadline for banks, securities dealers, and investors to submit proposals for raising $500 million to finance South Africa’s 2025-26 fiscal year plans.
· The African Development Bank and the Central African Republic’s government inaugurate new water and sanitation facilities in Bangui.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Thursday, August 7, 2025
Global
· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS).
· The 12th annual The World Games, a quadrennial international multi-sport event featuring events not contested at the Olympic Games, begins in Chengdu, capital of the Sichuan province in China and runs through, August 17.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Approximately 70 unions will join together to protest against Argentine President Javier Milei’s economic reform policy. Widespread travel disruptions are expected.
· The US Federal Communications Commission holds an open meeting that will include discussion of space.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic's takes part in a virtual fireside chat during a session with the Florida Institute of CFOs.
· Brazil PPI (June)/ Car Production (July)/ New Car Registrations (July)
· Mexico Inflation Rate (July)/ Auto Exports (July)/ Auto Production (July)/ Interest Rate Decision
· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)
· USA Initial Jobless Claims (August/02)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (July/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (August)/ Unit Labour Costs Q2/Wholesale Inventories (June)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (August)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (July)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (August/07)/ Consumer Credit Change (June)/ Fed Balance Sheet (August/06)/ Used Car Prices (July)
· Canada Ivey PMI s.a (July)
· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (July)
· Argentina Industrial Production (June)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· The Shanghai International Semiconductor Tech & Application Innovation Expo begins and runs through August 9.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Korea Current Account (June)
· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (August/02)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (August)/ Coincident Index (June)/ Leading Economic Index (June)
· Australia RBA Connolly Speech/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Building Permits (June)/ Private House Approvals
· Philippines Industrial Production (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· New Zealand Business Inflation Expectations Q3
· Malaysia Industrial Production (June)
· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (July)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)
· Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (July)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (July)
· France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Current Account (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Greece Balance of Trade (June)
· Ireland Inflation Rate (July)/ Unemployment Rate (July)
· Serbia Interest Rate Decision
· Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)/ Treasury Cash Balance (July)
· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Hungary Budget Balance (July)
· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Israel Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (June)/ Private Bank Lending (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in the Ivory Coast.
Economic Reports/Events –
· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
Friday, August 8, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to speak at a Mississippi Delta event.
· Chile Inflation Rate (July)
· Canada Unemployment Rate (July)/ Employment Change (July)/ Participation Rate (July)/ Average Hourly Wages (July)
· USA Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (August/08)
· Colombia Inflation Rate (July)
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Prominent Hong Kong democracy activist Joshua Wong once again faces trial, after he was charged in June for allegedly conspiring to collude with foreign forces. Wong, who was already sentenced last November to four years and eight months in prison for conspiracy to subvert state power, could see his prison time increase by anywhere from three years to a life sentence as a result of the new national security charge.
· The World Robot Conference takes place in Beijing, China. More than 1,500 exhibits, 200 companies and more than 50 makers of humanoid robots will be on display.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Japan Household Spending (June)/ BoJ Summary of Opinions/ Current Account (June)/ Bank Lending (July)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (July)
· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (July)
· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (July)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Car Sales (July)/ Motorbike Sales (July)
· Malaysia Retail Sales (June)
· Kazakhstan Current Account Q2
· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (July)
· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (July)
· China Current Account Q2
· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (August/01)
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· France Unemployment Rate Q2
· Hungary Inflation Rate (July)
· Slovakia Balance of Trade (June)/ Industrial Production (June)
· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (July)
· Greece Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (July)
· Ireland Industrial Production (June)
· Romania Interest Rate Decision
· Ukraine Inflation Rate (July)
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Egypt Inflation Rate (July)
· Mozambique Inflation Rate (July)
· Tanzania Inflation Rate (July)
Saturday, August 9, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman will speak at the At the Kansas Bankers Association (KBA) CEO and Senior Management Summit and Annual Meeting, Colorado Springs, Colorado.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Singapore National Day, a public holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Africa
Political/Social Events –
The Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) heads of state conference will take place in Bangui.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Sunday, August 10, 2025
Global
· Nothing significant to report.
Americas
Political/Social Events –
· Today is Independence Day in Ecuador, a national holiday.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Asia
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Europe
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Middle East
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (June)
Africa
Political/Social Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Economic Reports/Events –
· Nothing significant to report.
Recommended Weekend Reads
The Trump Trade Wars Bring Major Shifts in US Chip Policy, Escalating Risk of Conflict on the Moon, 5 Facts About Global Demographic Changes by 2100, and What’s Going on with the Grid?
August 1 - 3, 2025
Below are a number of reports and articles we read this past week and found particularly interesting. Hopefully, you will find them of interest and useful as well. We hope you have a great weekend.
Trade Wars & Semiconductors
US alters tech policy, puts chips on the table Jennifer Lee & Fritz Lodge/The Strategist
A shift is underway in the Trump administration’s approach to tech policy. Nvidia said on 14 July that the US government would soon grant it licenses to resume exports of its H20 chips to China. AMD is expecting the same for its MI308 chips. This may appear surprising after multiple statements from Trump administration officials that controls on the export to China of higher-end AI chips, such as the H20, were off the table. This move doesn’t change the broader bipartisan consensus behind restricting China’s access to strategic tech, but rather fits into a pattern of recent decisions showing that tech export controls—previously viewed as a non-negotiable issue of US national security—can now be used as bargaining chips in trade talks with China. This shift exacerbates uncertainty for domestic and international tech firms and will encourage Beijing to push for further loosening of controls in future negotiations.
How Does Semiconductor Trade Work? Chris Miller/American Enterprise Institute
Trade data on semiconductors is skewed due to the underreporting of imported semiconductors found in finished products like cars and phones. Any tariffs on semiconductors must carefully consider the structure of supply chains to avoid unintended consequences. Much of the $40 billion of chips the US imports are actually made in the US, packaged abroad, and reimported, so tariffs would senselessly penalize domestic manufacturers. Since the US lacks packaging capacity, higher tariffs would raise costs and hurt competitiveness in key industries. The US should focus tariffs on Chinese-made chips while striking sectoral trade deals with allies that commit both sides to zero tariffs, reducing non-tariff barriers, and continuing to invest in diversified supply chains.
Demographics
5 facts about how the world’s population is expected to change by 2100 Pew Research Center
Here are five facts about how the world’s population is projected to change in the coming decades, based on a Pew Research Center analysis of the UN’s World Population Prospects. The latest data is from 2023, so the numbers for 2024 and beyond are projections.
1. Global population growth is expected to slow between now and 2100 (the population is expected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2084).
2. The world’s three most populous countries in 2025 are expected to have radically different trajectories in the coming decades (India will grow, China has begun to shrink and fall sharply, and the US is expected to grow slowly and steadily).
3. Five countries are expected to contribute more than 60% of the world’s population growth by 2100 (The Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Tanzania).
4. The world’s population is expected to get older (the median age is projected to rise to 42 by 2100, up from 31 today and 22 in 1950).
5. Africa is currently the world’s youngest region, and it’s projected to stay that way in 2100.
Why Is Fertility So Low in High Income Countries? Melissa Schettini Kearney & Phillip Levine/NBER
This paper considers why fertility has fallen to historically low levels in virtually all high-income countries. Using cohort data, we document rising childlessness at all observed ages and falling completed fertility. This cohort perspective underscores the need to explain long-run shifts in fertility behavior. We review existing research and conclude that period-based explanations focused on short-term changes in income or prices cannot explain the widespread decline. Instead, the evidence points to a broad reordering of adult priorities with parenthood occupying a diminished role. We refer to this phenomenon as “shifting priorities” and propose that it likely reflects a complex mix of changing norms, evolving economic opportunities and constraints, and broader social and cultural forces. We review emerging evidence on all these factors. We conclude the paper with suggestions for future research and a brief discussion of policy implications.
Depopulation Globally and in the Asia-Pacific: The Shape of Things to Come Nicholas Eberstadt/Fertility and Sterility
Abstract: This article addresses the prospect of global depopulation and its far-reaching implications. It argues that the advent of world population decline may come sooner than commonly anticipated, due to remarkable drops in birth rates underway in low-income regions as well as more developed locales. Notwithstanding uncertainties about the precise level of planetary fertility (due mainly to limited statistical capabilities in Africa), it is clear that overall childbearing patterns for our species are at most only slightly above the replacement level today—and might already actually have fallen below that significant threshold. Prolonged sub-replacement fertility will have far-reaching social, economic, and political ramifications. The following pages attempt to describe some of them, and to offer an introductory exploration of the new questions that could face problem-solvers in the future.
Africa’s future demographic dividend matters to Europe today ISS/African Futures
Africa’s demographic surge offers Europe a chance to rethink labor, migration and global partnerships through a lens of long-term interdependence. Europe’s population is shrinking, while Africa’s is growing. By 2050, Africa will be home to one in four people globally. Similarly, the EU’s labor force is shrinking and aging, while Africa’s is growing rapidly and becoming younger. By 2050, more than 60% of Africa’s people will be of working age. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the labor force will more than double. It will have increased from 505 million in 2023 to 1,058 million people, while Europe’s labor force will have declined from 370 million to 342 million.
The Growing Electrical Supply Challenge
AI Demand Drives Record Electricity Supply Costs In Largest US Market Financial Times
The cost of providing electricity in America’s largest power market will hit a record high owing to soaring demand from artificial intelligence data centers and delays in building new power plants, raising energy prices for consumers. Grid operator PJM said it procured energy supplies for $329.17 per megawatt day, a 22% increase compared with the previous year. The organization will pay power producers $16.1bn to meet its energy needs from June 2026 to May 2027, a 10% increase compared with the previous year. The operator said it expected a 1-5% rise for customers in their energy bills, depending on how utilities and states passed on costs. PJM sets prices at an annual capacity auction where power suppliers bid to provide the region’s projected demand. Earlier this year, PJM and some state governments took steps to try to keep power prices lower after last year’s capacity auction delivered a $269.92 per MW-day price — a more than 800% increase from 2023.
Power Check: Watt’s Going On With The Grid? Bank of America Institute
The US grid is facing an extended period of load growth. And while the drivers of this growth have changed over time, demand is largely due to 1) building electrification; 2) data centers; 3) industrial demand; and 4) electric vehicle (EV) adoption. If load growth forecasts continue to rise, utilities will need to invest to meet required reserve margins and increase spending on both power generation and transmission & distribution capacity. The good news? Deregulation and accelerated permitting may further help get more projects off the starting line, according to BofA Global Research.
Are Small Modular Reactors Worthy of the Hype? Oilprice.com
Nuclear energy is experiencing a political and technical renaissance. Around the world, nuclear fission is gaining traction as a critical piece of the puzzle for maintaining energy security while also slashing greenhouse gas emissions. Much of the renewed excitement over nuclear power comes from advances in nuclear technologies, particularly small modular reactors (SMRs), which are supposed to make nuclear capacity expansion cheaper, safer, and more efficient. However, Even though there is excitement from investors and policymakers alike, getting SMR models approved is taking much longer than anticipated. Only one model has been approved in the United States, and it is not yet operational. But many, many more designs are waiting in the wings.
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
The White House Puts a Hold on Quintenz Confirmation Vote, NCUA Democrat Board Members Back On… and Then Back Off, and Housing Policy Moves into Focus
July 28 - August 1, 2025
It’s going to be a quiet week in Washington. The House of Representatives began its traditional August recess last week, and the Senate is expected to leave at the end of this week—though they may stick around longer at President Trump’s request to address the confirmation backlog. As you can see from the calendar below, things are winding down in D.C. as everyone heads off for much-needed summer vacations.
But as the Senate works to clear that nominee backlog, one name has been held back yet again: the Senate Agriculture Committee once more decided at the last minute not to bring up Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair nominee Brian Quintenz for a confirmation vote. Interestingly—and concerning for the future of Quintenz’s nomination—it was the White House that weighed in this morning, with no explanation, and asked Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-AR) to delay the vote. That means Quintenz won’t get a committee vote until at least September.
Meanwhile, a federal appeals court reinstated two Democratic members of the Federal Credit Union Administration who had been fired by President Trump. However, any hope of their return was short-lived: the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals issued an emergency order overruling the decision and blocking their reinstatement. This case is clearly headed to the Supreme Court, though it’s unclear when that will happen.
In another development, a federal appellate court on Friday struck down a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) order that would have required brokers to help fund the massive Consolidated Audit Trail (CAT) database used by regulators. Championed by then-SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the plan was rejected by the court, which said the SEC had not “adequately justified its choices” or conducted a sufficient economic analysis.
In the Senate, a bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced legislation aimed at increasing private investment in affordable housing and other community development projects. Led by Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC), the Community Investment and Prosperity Act will receive close scrutiny this fall.
Congress also received a notable report last Thursday from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) on the potential impact of releasing mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae from government control. The report indicates that while returning the companies to public ownership would generate some budgetary savings, it would also result in costs—mainly because the federal government would no longer receive income from their earnings. You can read the report HERE. Re-floating the two GSEs is a priority for President Trump and has gained traction on Capitol Hill in recent months, along with many supporters on Wall Street.
Below are the meetings and events of note happening in Washington this week:
U.S. Congressional Hearings
U.S. Senate
Tuesday, July 29, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will go into Executive Session to consider the ROAD to Housing Act 2025. You can read about the legislation HERE.
Wednesday, July 30, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Securities, Insurance, and Investment Subcommittee holds a hearing entitled “Guardrails and Growth: AI’s Role in Capital and Insurance Markets.”
House of Representatives
The House is out of session for the August recess and will return on September 2.
Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events
Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to consider interest rates. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday.
U.S. Treasury Department
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Commerce
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Department of Housing and Urban Development
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Securities and Exchange Commission
Thursday, July 31, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.
Commodities Futures Trading Commission
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
FINRA
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
National Credit Union Administration
Thursday, July 31, 12:00 p.m. – National Credit Union Administration Chair Kyle Hauptman speaks at the Women in Housing and Finance.
Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division
Thursday, July 31, 1:00 p.m. – The FTC will hold a Consumer Protection and Older Adult Roundtable.
Farm Credit Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
International Monetary Fund & World Bank
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
North American Securities Administrators Association
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Small Business Administration
There are no significant events scheduled at this time.
Trade Associations & Think Tank Events
Trade Associations
Wednesday, July 30 – The Institute for International Finance holds its 2025 Tax Conference in New York.
Thursday, July 31, 12:00 p.m. – National Credit Union Administration Chair Kyle Hauptman speaks at the Women in Housing and Finance.
Think Tanks and Other Events
Tuesday, July 29, 7:30 a.m. – Axios holds a discussion on "Opening Doors: Expanding Pathways to Homeownership."
Tuesday, July 29, 11:00 a.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a virtual event entitled “Unpacking the consequences of the new US tax and budget legislation.”
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