Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 7/6/25 Francis Kelly 7/6/25

The Global Week Ahead

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Extension Ends, The BRICS+ Summit Concludes, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Returns to the White House, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet, The Eurogroup Gathers While Fed Minutes Are Released

July 6 - 13, 2025

It may be summer in the Northern Hemisphere, but there is a lot going on in Washington, Europe, and Asia this week. The biggest event politically and for markets this week comes on Wednesday when President Trump’s 90-day extension on placing “reciprocal tariffs” ends. At that point, President Trump is expected to revert back to the April 2nd rates on all countries that fail to secure a trade deal with the US. Or at least that was the case until Sunday morning when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the actual reversion date will now be August 1st. The White House is sending letters to 100 smaller countries, after which the larger tariffs will take effect by that date.

EU financial ministers will gather for a Eurogroup meeting this week in Brussels, where US trade relations will be a major agenda item. The European Commission and the European Parliament are also expected to hold discussions on the US tariffs and strategies for reaching a deal.

Meanwhile, the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit concludes on Monday in Brazil. The Summit lacked the hoped-for heft and impact after Chinese President Xi Jinping cancelled his attendance due to “scheduling conflicts,” and Russian President Vladimir Putin said he could not attend, mostly out of fear of being arrested for war crimes. Markets will be watching for the final communique and any indications of what comes next for the BRICS.

Also on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be in Washington for a meeting with President Trump. It is Netanyahu’s third trip to Washington to meet with the President since Trump was inaugurated in January. The agenda is a big one: The two leaders are going to discuss the situation in Gaza, and Trump is expected to press Netanyahu on a more permanent ceasefire. They are also expected to discuss what comes next with Iran. There has been talk that US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff might meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi Monday – or perhaps later in the week – in Oslo, Norway, to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. But this has yet to be confirmed.

In Asia this week, ASEAN Foreign Ministers are going to be meeting in Kuala Lumpur on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit – two of the biggest, most important multilateral meetings held in the region annually. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will be attending as will Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was scheduled to attend but cancelled at the end of last week to stay in Washington to focus on the Netanyahu meeting and the Iran nuclear talks. Rubio was also scheduled to fly to Japan and then South Korea to meet with his counterparts about regional security issues, but he has canceled that trip, too.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, next to the July 9th tariff deadline set by President Trump expiring, markets will be looking at the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which are being released on Wednesday. Specifically, the focus will be on how divided the Fed might be on the issue of cutting interest rates – especially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman indicated recently they were in favor of cutting rates.

In Europe, markets are looking at the UK GDP release on Friday, Germany’s industrial production numbers on Monday, and the trade balance on Tuesday. And in Asia, China’s CPI is released on Wednesday, Japan releases wage data for May on Monday and the Economy Watchers report on Tuesday, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision on Tuesday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 6, 2025

Global

· The 15th BRICS Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through July 7. Eleven members are expected to be represented. However, neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Russian President Vladimir Putin are going to attend.

· The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held (virtually)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 49th CARICOM (Caribbean Community) Heads of Government Meeting begins in Montego Bay, Jamaica and runs through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Dalai Lama is expected to reveal his succession plan via a video announcement.

· The Emperor of Japan will make an official visit to Mongolia through next Sunday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Spain Summit begins and runs through July 8 in Madrid. Government representatives from Guinea-Bissau, Somalia, Morocco and Sierra Leone will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Comoros, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 7, 2025

Global

· The International Seabed Authority Council meets in Kingston, Jamaica.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with President Trump in Washington, D.C. The two leaders are expected to discuss next step on dealing with Iran as well as the situation in Gaza. This is the third visit by Netanyahu since Trump took office in January. As this meeting takes place, US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff may be meeting in Oslo, Norway with the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to discuss Iran’s nuclear development (but that meeting is yet to be confirmed).

· President Trump said on Friday the US will begin negotiations with China on a potential deal regarding TikTok. The President said “we pretty much have a deal. I think we are going to start Monday or Tuesday…”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Auto Exports (June)/ Auto Production (June)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Brazil Car Production (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (June)

· USA Fed Balance Sheet (July/02)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Solomon Islands Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (May)/ Overtime Pay (May)/ Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (June)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (June)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The agenda includes fiscal policy coordination, the growing international role of the euro, and Bulgaria’s engagement in the EU. The ministers will also elect a president for the next term.

· Poland will launch border controls with Germany to halt the flow of illegal migrants.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU labor ministers in Aalborg, Denmark.

· Polish President Andrzej Duga visits Prague for bilateral talks.

· German Foreign Minister Johan Wadepul will make a working visit to Prague.

· The France-Central European Countries and Ukraine Business Forum takes place in Paris, France.

· Today is the beginning of Paris Fashion Week for Haute Couture for the fall/winter season.

· Today is the Running of the Bulls, otherwise known as the annual Festival of San Fermin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks on “The German economy: navigating cyclical fluctuations and boosting long-term growth” at the Ragnar Nurkse lecture in Tallinn, Estonia.

· Germany Industrial Production (May)

· Romania Retail Sales (May)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (June)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (June)

· Hungary Retail Sales (May)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (May)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (May)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (June)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Heroes of Zambia Day, a national holiday honoring those who fought for the country’s independence.

· Today is Saba Day in Tanzania, a national holiday celebrating the unification of political parties seeing independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (June)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Global

· The UN will host The AI for Good Global Summit 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (June)/ Redbook (July/05)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Consumer Credit Change (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/04)/ Used Car Prices (June)

· Brazil Retail Sales (May)

· Chile Inflation Rate (June)

· Argentina Industrial Production (May)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet while also attending the East Asia Summit (which runs through Thursday) and the ASEAN Regional Forum in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. US Secretary of State Maco Rubio was set to attend as well as meet with his counterparts in side trips to Japan and South Korea but cancelled for focus on Middle East issues. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the EU High Representative Vice President Kaja Kallas are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (May)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (June)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Australia NAB Business Confidence (June)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (June)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the Stability and Growth Pact, the Danish Presidency work program, the Savings and Investment Union, and the Recovery and Resilience Facility.

· French President Emmanual Macron makes a head of state visit to London. Macron will be hosted by King Charles and Queen Camilla through Thursday. Macron will also address the British Parliament as part of an effort to strengthen UK-EU ties.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will in an exchange of views with the EP Conference of Presidents on the next Multiannual Financial Framework.

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez addresses parliament over Socialist party corruption scandal .

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland Construction PMI (June)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (June)/ Budget Balance (June)

· France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Greece Balance of Trade (May)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (June)

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

· The OECD releases its Employment Outlook report for OECD member countries. The outlook will also include an analysis of declining fertility globally and its impact on future employment and economic growth.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s 90 day pause on “reciprocal tariffs” is set to expire.

· President Trump will host the Africa-US Leaders’ Summit in Washington, D.C. The heads of state from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal are expected to attend the conference which runs through July 11 and will focus on mutual economic opportunities and regional security.

· The 12th International Aeronautics Fair begins in Colombia.

· Today is Argentine Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Today is State Rebellion Day in Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Meeting Minutes

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/04)/ Wholesale Inventories (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (July/04)/

· Mexico Inflation Rate (June)

· El Salvador PPI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan will hold live-fire military drills as part of their annual Han Kuang exercise. The drill simulates a possible attack by China and lasts for ten days and will involve thousands of reservists.

· Today is Palau Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gives a speech at the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney/ RBA Chart Pack/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)/ RBA Hunter Speech

· China Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Retail Sales (May)/ Car Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (June)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (June)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· India M3 Money Supply (June/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany Chancellor Friedrich Merz greets NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on a visit to Germany to celebrate the country’s 70th anniversary of its membership in NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech and participates in a Q&A on the monetary policy agenda at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives closing remarks at the Cursos de Verano CEU-El Escorial "La Economía Española: realidad y perspectivas" in El Escorial, Spain.

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (May)

· Greece Inflation Rate (June)

· Great Britain BoE Financial Stability Report

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang visits will visit Egypt for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (June)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Namibia for talks on economic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Bahamas Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “Balance Sheet” at a Conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Dallas, Texas.

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will join MNI Connect for a virtual conversation on “The US Economic Outlook and Challenges for Policymakers.”

· St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (June)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/28)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July)/Fed Balance Sheet (July/09)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Top military commanders from the US, South Korea, and Japan will meet in Seoul to discuss regional security issues, mostly focusing on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program..

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (May)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (July/05)/ PPI (June)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (May)

· Kazakhstan PPI (June)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Environment Ministers in Brussels through July 11.

· The Ukraine Recovery Conference takes place in Rome through July 11. The meeting will be hosted by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen faces a European parliament no-confidence vote in latest challenge to the European Commission president, the first time since 2014 that the head of the commission has faced such a move. However, the vote will mainly be symbolic as she is expected to survive

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a lecture on "Ever changing payment landscape: What will a digital euro bring?" followed by a discussion with Vice Governor Marko Pahor organized by Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovakia.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives the Annual Chapman-Barrigan Lecture entitled “Weathering the Storm: Stability in a Changing Climate” in London.

· Germany Inflation Rate (June)

· Romania Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Slovakia Industrial Production (May)

· Turkey Industrial Production (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/04)

· Italy Industrial Production (May)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (May)

· Greece Industrial Production (May)

· Ireland Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (June)

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Executive Council will meet in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea through July 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (May)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (June)/ Core Inflation Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Friday, July 11, 2025

Global

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) July Oil Markets Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is expected to visit Texas to see the impact of recent catastrophic flash floods.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Industrial Production (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/Average Hourly Wages (June)

· Brazil Business Confidence (July)

· USA WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July)/ Monthly Budget Statement (June)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (June)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (June)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

· Malaysia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/04)

· China Vehicle Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel 'Integration of the Ukrainian Financial Sector into the European Internal Market' at Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2025) in Rome, Italy.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (June)/ Current Account (May)

· Romania Inflation Rate (June)

· Great Britain GDP (May)/ Goods Trade Balance (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Construction Output (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (June)

· France Inflation Rate (June)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia Construction Output (May)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Turkey Current Account (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Auto Production (June)/ Auto Sales (June)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (June)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (June)

· Russia Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Angola Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Kiribati, a small island in the South Pacific which gained its independence from the UK in 1979.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words enemies of Imperial Japan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· France celebrates Bastille Day.

· Today is Sovereignty Day in Montenegro, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 7/3/25 Francis Kelly 7/3/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Will Congress Pass OBBBA By Independence Day? Otherwise, Washington Is Going To Be Very Quiet This Week

June 30 - July 4, 2025

It is Independence Day on Friday, and that means not much is happening this week in Washington, other than the massive, marathon wrestling match taking place in Congress to move forward with passage of The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). President Trump has demanded that Congressional Republican leaders get a final package to his desk by July 4th for his signature. Will they do it? It is going to be close, but as of this writing, the Senate is about to vote on their bill and send it to the House. Our view is the House will ultimately take what the Senate sends them (or face the wrath of Trump). But it will be very close.

Otherwise, it will be a very quiet week in Washington, as none of the major regulators have any important meetings or policy speeches scheduled.

Looking at what happened last week, it was a busy one for the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jay Powell appeared before the House Financial Services Committee and then the Senate Banking Committee. Then the Fed published the results of the annual stress tests – all the major banks passed as expected. This came on the heels of the Fed, along with the FDIC, issuing a new proposal to modify the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio Standards. Additionally, the Fed announced it will hold a conference on large bank capital requirements on July 22.

Returning to Congress for a moment, we learned that the Senate will take up the GENIUS Act, creating a market structure for the cryptocurrency market, sometime in September when they return from the August recess. And speaking of crypto: the Federal Housing Finance Agency has directed the two mortgage giants, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, to develop proposals to consider a borrower’s crypto holdings as part of the underwriting process, which could be quite a shift for the housing market going forward.

We hope you have a wonderful 4th of July. And to our Canadian readers, we wish you a great Canada Day on Monday, as we celebrate our respective independence and liberty. Below are the very few events we could find happening this week in Washington among the regulators:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· There are no hearings scheduled this week in advance of the Independence Day holiday.

House of Representatives

· There are no hearings scheduled this week in advance of the Independence Day holiday.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Monday, June 30, 8:00 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before an MNI Livestreamed Connect Video Conference.

· Tuesday, July 1, 9:30 a.m. GMT - Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.

· Monday, June 30, 11:00 a.m. – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, July 3, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Wednesday, July 2, 2:45 p.m. UK time – CFTC Acting Chair Caroline D. Pham will participate in a fireside chat titled "A view from over the pond: the CFTC’s role in regulating digital assets" at City & Financial GlobalX’s City Week 2025 in London.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· Monday, June 30, 2:00 a.m. – The FTC holds a Listening Session on Lowering Americans’ Drug Prices Through Competition at the FTC Headquarters.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

Monday, July 30 – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2025 Tax Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/29/25 Francis Kelly 6/29/25

The Global Week Ahead

The BRICS Leaders’ Summit Is Held in Brazil, The Quad Foreign Ministers Meet in Washington, China’s Foreign Minister Travels to the EU, and the ECB Holds the European Central Bank Forum

June 29 - July 6, 2025

This coming Sunday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) hosts the 17th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The meeting will comprise most of the leadership of original member states – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – plus the leaders from five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Nine other countries have been designated “partner countries,” and their leaders are likely to attend. Lula has set the theme of the Summit as “Strengthening Global South Cooperation for More Inclusive Sustainable Governance,” and he is expected to significantly address multiple challenges to Western political and economic dominance, including the dominance of the US dollar.

However, the likely outcomes of the Summit were cut down this past week when both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced they were not attending. Xi said he had a “scheduling conflict,” and Putin is worried he could get arrested for war crimes he’s ordered in Ukraine. Not having these two at the Summit has already taken considerable energy out of the event.

Meanwhile, in Washington, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts the foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan for a meeting of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue). The meeting could prove to be quite revealing about the future of relations between the US and the other QUAD members. It comes on the heels of the US canceling a meeting this coming week with the Japanese defense and foreign counterparts after senior US defense officials, led by Defense Undersecretary Elbridge Colby, demanded Japan massively boost its defense spending, much more than had been previously requested.

Colby also announced a review of the enormous joint project with Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines, a move which has angered Australian leadership.

Also in Washington this week, Congress continues to battle over President Trump’s signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. As of this writing, the US Senate is expected to vote late Sunday or early Monday morning on the bill. The House is looking to vote on what the Senate sends them, either late Tuesday or Wednesday, meeting President Trump’s July 4th deadline.

We would also note that Canada celebrates Canada Day on Monday, and the US celebrates Independence Day on Friday. A wonderful week to celebrate independence and liberty!

Looking at the global financial markets this week, the big event markets are looking at is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2025 being held in Portugal. We think of it as the European version of the annual Jackson Hole event the Fed hosts in August. The ECB Forum will have a lot of interesting speeches and panels. Fed Chair Jay Powell will be one of the participants and speakers.

Also this week, the ECB will be releasing the minutes from their last interest rate meeting this week, too. Staying in Europe, the major economic releases there this week include the Eurozone’s, Germany’s and Italy’s CPI prints are out this week. Germany also releases factor orders this week.

In Asia, China releases its latest PMI report as well as the Caixin indicators. Japan industrial production for May is out this week, along with the Bank of Japan’s Q2 Tankan Survey.

Bringing it back to the US, the June jobs report is out Thursday after the JOLTS report is released Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday. Also out this week is the June ISM indices on Tuesday and international trade balance and factory orders for May on Thursday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Chile’s ruling left-wing voters head to the polls to select their candidate for president for the upcoming November elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Unemployment Rate Q1/M3 Money Supply (May)/Private Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 30, 2025

Global

· The UN 4th International Conference on Financing for Development begins in Sevilla, Spain and runs through July 3.

· The BRICS 34d Sherpas Meeting takes in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil through July 4 in advance of the upcoming BRICS Leaders Meeting which begins on Sunday, July 6.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a vote related to the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) and also, to the Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions. Also in the morning, the Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing, followed by consultations, on the Middle East (regarding the Golan Heights).

· The World Trade Organization Trade and Environment Week conference begins in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Thailand will have a trade team in Washington to negotiate a trade deal with the US.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy before an MNI Livestreamed Connect Video Conference.

· Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025.

· Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (May)/ Nominal Budget Balance (May)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Chile Copper Production (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· USA Chicago PMI (June)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (June)/ Quarterly Grain Stocks - Corn/ Soy/ Wheat (June)/

· Uruguay Balance of Trade (May)

· Argentina Economic Activity (April)

· Costa Rica Current Account Q1

· Mexico Fiscal Balance (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi begin a visit to Europe where he will hold bilateral meetings in Brussels with EU officials and take part in the 13th round of China-EU High-Level Strategic Dialogue, then Germany, and finally in France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Japan Industrial Production (May)/ Housing Starts (May)/ Construction Orders (May)

· Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge (June)/ Housing Credit (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Totality Dwelling Prices (June)

· New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (June)

· China NBS General/ Non-Manufacturing/ Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Thailand Industrial Production (May)/ Current Account (May)/ Private Consumption & Investment (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Malaysia M3 Money Supply (May)

· Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (June)/ Unemployment Rate Q4

· India Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/Government Budget Value (May)/ Current Account Q1/ External Debt Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visits Kyrgyzstan for bilateral meetings.

· The 15th City Week 2025 conference begins in London and runs through July 2. The event is organized in partnership with the UK Government, the City of London Corporation, TheCity UK, UK Finance and leading City institutions.

· The Wimbledon tennis tournament begins in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank hosts the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal. There are multiple panels and speeches scheduled for the conference which runs through Wednesday.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives the introductory speech at the opening reception of ECB Forum on Central Banking 2025 "Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses" in Sintra, Portugal.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks at a conference organized by Instituto Atlántico de Gobierno (IADG) in Madrid, Spain.

· Germany Retail Sales (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (June)/ Bavaria CPI (June)/ Brandenburg CPI (June)/ Hesse CPI (June)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (June)/ Saxony CPI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Great Britain Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ BoE Consumer Credit (May)/ Mortgage Approvals & Lending (May)/ M4 Money Supply (May)/ Net Lending to Individuals (May)

· Hungary PPI (May)

· Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (June)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Participation Rate (May)

· Euro Area Loans to Companies & Households (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)/ ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

· Poland Inflation Rate (June)

· Spain Current Account (April)

· Slovenia Inflation Rate (June)

· Greece PPI (May)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Total Credit (May)

· Italy Inflation Rate (June)

· Ireland Retail Sales (May)

· Serbia Balance of Trade (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Russia M2 Money Supply (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Lebanese Parliament commences a new legislative session.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· In Abuja, Nigeria the 24th annual NOG Sub Saharan Energy Sector Conference takes place through July 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa M3 Money Supply (May)/ Private Sector Credit (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Budget Balance (May)

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Egypt M2 Money Supply (May)

· Kenya Inflation Rate (June)

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Global

· Pakistan takes the chair of the UN Security Council for the month of July.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts the Quad Foreign Ministers in Washington. The foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan will discuss mutual security issues.

· Today is Canada Day, a national holiday. Markets are closed.

· In New York City, Democratic Mayoral candidate is expected to be declared the final winner of the Democratic mayoral primary.

· Today is “Ketikoti” – Emancipation Day – in Suriname celebrating when slaver was abolished.

· Today is Territory Day in the British Virgin Islands, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell participates on a policy panel at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal.

· Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Business Confidence (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Chile IMACEC Economic Activity (May)

· USA Redbook (June/28)/S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)/ JOLTs Job Openings (May)/ ISM Manufacturing Employment (June)/ ISM Manufacturing New Orders (June)/ ISM Manufacturing Prices (June)/ Construction Spending (May)/ JOLTs Job Quits (May)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index/ Dallas Fed Services Index (June)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/27)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Colombia Davivienda Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Uruguay Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Argentina Tax Revenue (June)

· Peru Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Vietnam will cut the number of provinces and cities to 34 from 63, in the country's biggest reform in nearly four decades. The government is aiming to increase efficiency, cut costs and reduce the number of civil servants across government bodies as it seeks to streamline the state apparatus and boost growth.

· Today in China is Founding Day of the Chinese Communist Party.

· Today is Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, the anniversary marking when the UK handed the island back to China.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence Q2/ NZIER Capacity Utilization Q2/ Building Permits (May)/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index (July)

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI/ Commodity Prices (June)

· Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2/ Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q2/ Tankan Large Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ Small Outlook and Index Q2/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· South Korea Exports/ Imports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Philippines S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Business Confidence Q2

· Taiwan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Thailand S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Singapore URA Property Index Q2/ Bank Lending (May)

· China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June)

· India HSBC Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Kazakhstan Inflation Rate (June)

· Pakistan Inflation Rate (June)/ Wholesale Prices (June)

· Sri Lanka Current Account Q1

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The British Parliament is expected to hold a highly contentious vote on welfare reform.

· Denmark takes up the EU presidency for the next six months.

· In Russia, a country-wide increase of energy, gas, water and heating supply prices for households.

· European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in a Strategic Dialogue with the World Economic Forum and global business leaders in Brussels.

· German Chancellor Friedrich Merz receives Luxembourg's Prime Minister Luc Frieden with military honors followed by a press conference

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey begins a the new 3-year chair of the Financial Stability Board.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Payments Victoria Cleland gives a keynote address at City Week 2025.

· Ireland AIB Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Great Britain Nationwide Housing Prices (June)/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Green Gilt 2053

· Hungary Balance of Trade (May)/ HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Switzerland Retail Sales (May)/ procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Poland S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Turkey Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing (June)

· Spain HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ New Car Sales (June)

· Italy HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

· France HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Germany Unemployed Persons (June)/ Unemployment Change (June)/ Unemployment Rate (June)/ HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ CPI Flash (June)/ ECB Forum on Central Banking

· Greece S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Ukraine Current Account (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Burundi, a national holiday.

· Today is Ghana Republic Day, a national holiday.

· Today is Sir Seretse Khama Day in Botswana, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI (June)

· South Africa ABSA Manufacturing PMI (June)/ Total New Vehicle Sales (June)

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Global

· The OECD Green Growth and Development Forum begins in Paris. The two-day event will assess how forests and agriculture can help meet climate targets.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 66th Ordinary Meeting of the Common Market Council and Summit of Presidents of Mercosur and Associated States begins in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendara Modi begins visits to Trinidad and Tobago, Argentina, and Brazil through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (June)/ Industrial Production (May)

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/27)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/27)/ Challenger Job Cuts (June)/ ADP Employment Change (June)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/27)/ Total Vehicle Sales (June)

· Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Paraguay Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Ai Group Industry/ Construction/ Manufacturing Index (June)/ Building Permits (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)

· South Korea Inflation Rate (June)

· Philippines PPI (May)

· Thailand Business Confidence (June)

· Hong Kong Retail Sales (May)

· Singapore SIPMM Manufacturing PMI (June)

· Pakistan Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Space Forum begins in Brussels and runs through July 3.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Patrick Montagner gives the keynote speech at the Frankfurt Banking Summit 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Market Infrastructure Sasha Mills vives. Keynote speech at City Week 2025 on “The Bank of England’s Approach to Innovation in Digital Assets and Payments.”

· Romania PPI (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· France Budget Balance (May)

· Spain Unemployment Change (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Italy Unemployment Rate (May)

· Euro Area Unemployment Rate (May)

· Greece Unemployment Rate (May)

· Great Britain Treasury Gilt 2028

· Ireland Unemployment Rate (June)

· Poland Interest Rate Decision (July)

· Russia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Corporate Profits (April)/ Real Wage Growth (April)/ Retail Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Expectations Q2

· Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (April)

· Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· USA Unemployment Rate (June)/ Average Hourly Earnings (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/28)/ Participation Rate (June)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services PMI (June)/ ISM Services Business Activity/ Employment/ New Orders/ Prices (June)

· Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Japan, The upper house election campaign in Japan will officially begin, with voters set to cast their ballots on July 20. Of the chamber's 248 seats, 125 will be up for grabs. As Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito could not secure a majority in the lower house election last year, this election could have a major impact on the operations of the government..

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Jajimie Takata will give a speech to local business leaders in Mie, Japan.

· Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/28)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June/28)/ Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI (June)

· Singapore S&P Global PMI (June)

· China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (June)

· India HSBC Composite & Services PMI (June)

· Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Belarus (which really isn’t independent..).

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank publishes accounts of its last monetary policy meeting.

· Ireland AIB Services PMI (June)

· Switzerland Inflation Rate (June)

· Turkey Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/27)

· Spain HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)

· Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

· France HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

· Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)

· Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (June)

· Great Britain S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (June)

· United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (June)

· Jordan PPI (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa S&P Global PMI (June)

· Kenya GDP Growth Rate Q1

Friday, July 4, 2025

Global

· The BRICS 3rd Meeting of Deputy Finance Ministers and Central Bank Deputies takes place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

· The BRICS Business Forum takes place in Brasilia, Brazil through July 5.

· The UN is closed as part of the 4th of July celebration in the US.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in the United States, a national holiday, and financial markets are closed.

· In Cuba, the Communist Party holds a plenary session to address the island's ongoing economic crisis.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil PPI (May)/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Mexico Consumer Confidence (June)

· Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (June)

· Ecuador Inflation Rate (June)

· Colombia Exports (May)/ PPI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Republic Day in the Philippines, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Current Account (May)

· Japan Household Spending (May)

· Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Philippines Inflation Rate (June)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Singapore Retail Sales (May)

· Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· India Bank Loan Growth (June/20)/ Deposit Growth (June/20)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

The EU–Moldova Summit will be held in Chișinău, Moldova. European Council president António Costa and Ursula von der Leyen, his counterpart at the European Commission, will meet Maia Sandu, the Moldovan president. It is expected they will discuss the country’s future in the EU and its sovereignty amid Russia’s invasion of neighboring Ukraine.

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde will meet with German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin, Germany.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a speech at the International Monetary Fund OEDNE/World Bank Group EDS19 Constituency Meeting in Luxembourg.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Alan Taylor gives s public lecture at the London School of Economics on the natural rate of interest rates.

· Switzerland Unemployment Rate (June)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Germany Factory Orders (May)/ HCOB Construction PMI (June)

· Hungary Industrial Production (May)

· France Industrial Production (May)/ HCOB Construction PMI (June)

· Spain Industrial Production (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

· Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (June)/ / PPI (May)

· Italy HCOB Construction PMI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Great Britain New Car Sales (June)/ S&P Global Construction PMI (June)

· Slovenia Balance of Trade (May)

· Serbia PPI (June)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Prel (June)

· Russia Vehicle Sales (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Rwanda Liberation Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Global

· The 1st BRICS Finance Minister and Central Bank Governors Meeting will take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Venezuela (which is not independent or free…).

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa-Spain Cooperation Summit begins in Madrid.

· Today is Constitution Day in Armenia, a national holiday.

· The 112th Tour de France cycling race begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Algeria's Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 6, 2025

Global

The 15th BRICS Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through July 7. Eleven members are expected to be represented. However, neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Russian President Vladimir Putin are going to attend.

The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held (virtually)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 49th CARICOM (Caribbean Community) Heads of Government Meeting begins in Montego Bay, Jamaica and runs through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Dalai Lama is expected to reveal his succession plan via a video announcement.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Comoros, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 6/27/25 Francis Kelly 6/27/25

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

June 23 - 27, 2025

Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before Congress, The Fed and FDIC Vote ON a Revised Leverage Ratio Proposal, and the SEC Holds A Roundtable on Executive Compensation

The Federal Reserve is going to be a beehive of activity next week. Fed Chair Jay Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee and then the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy. Powell is likely to get a good share of questions about the future of bank regulation in those hearings, particularly about the Fed’s (and the FDIC’s) upcoming review and vote on Wednesday on the leverage ratio for banks. The proposal will reduce the capital buffer by up to 1.5 percent for the biggest banks.

Additionally, Fed Governors Michael Barr and Adriana Kugler will be appearing at the Kansas City Fed and then the Cleveland Fed for their annual “Fed Listens” events. Again, bank regulation is likely to be a major topic.

All this Fed action will be capped on Friday at 4:30 p.m. when the results of bank stress tests are released.

The overall future of financial regulation will also be the topic of a Brookings Institution event his week where House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark) will discuss his plans for the committee policy-wise.

All this comes after a number of major legislative and regulatory moves this past week. As expected, the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, the first crypto regulatory framework bill to pass the Senate. We expect the House to pass it sometime later this summer. President Trump praised the legislation and urged the House to move quickly to hold a vote.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins, as expected, announced he was withdrawing 14 proposed rules that had been proposed by then-SEC Chair Gary Gensler. The proposed rules ranged from crypto regulation to climate disclosure to regulation and disclosure around the use of artificial intelligence.

The SEC will keep up the busy pace this week when it hosts a Roundtable on Executive Compensation – a prelude to likely new proposals scaling back executive compensation disclosure.

Finally, we would note that Elon Musk is not totally finished with Washington. The Financial Times reported this past week that users of X (Twitter) will “soon” be able to make investments or trades using the social media platform. Additionally, the company is exploring creating “X credit and X debit cards.” The FT says this is all part of Musk’s efforts to build an “everything app.” Welcome to the world of Washington financial regulation, Mr. Musk!

Below is everything we could find happening this week in Washington among the regulators:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· Tuesday, June 24, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Banking Committee’s Subcommittee on Digital Assets holds a hearing entitled Exploring Bipartisan Legislative Frameworks for Digital Asset Market Structure.

· Wednesday, June 25, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will testify.

House of Representatives

· Tuesday, June 24, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell will testify.

· Wednesday, June 25, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee holds a hearing entitled Reassessing Sarbanes-Oxley: The Cost of Compliance in Today’s Capital Markets.

· Thursday, June 26, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight & Investigations holds a hearing entitled From Watchdog to Attack Dog: Examining the CFPB’s Chopra-era Assault on Disfavored Industries.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· Sunday, June 22, 11:15 a.m. PST – San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a monetary policy insights panel before the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference.

· Monday, June 23, 3:00 a.m. EST/3:00 p.m. Prague Time – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

· Monday, June 23, 10:00 a.m. Prague Time – Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy and banking at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

· Monday, June 23, 2:30 p.m. – The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds a virtual discussion with business and community leaders on "the effects that labor market conditions, inflation, and interest rates have on them.” The event is being hosted by SUNY Schenectady Community College. New York Fed President John Williams will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

· Monday, June 24, 12:10 p.m. Central Time – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Milwaukee Business Journal Mid-Year Outlook 2025.

· Tuesday, June 24, 8:15 a.m. Central Time – Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on monetary policy before the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025.

· Tuesday, June 24, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.

· Tuesday, June 24, 2:00 p.m. – Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the “State of the Nation's Housing 2025" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

· Tuesday, June 24, 4:00 p.m. – The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City holds a virtual discussion on "the current state of the agricultural economy and future prospects, part of its "Fed Listens" series. Speakers will include Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr and Jeff Schmid, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

· Wednesday, June 25, 10:00 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

· Wednesday, June 25, 2:00 p.m. – The Federal Reserve holds a meeting "to discuss proposed revisions to the Board's supplementary leverage ratio standards."

· Thursday, June 26 & 27 – The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds its 2025 Policy Summit, beginning at 9 a.m., with the theme "Building Strong and Sustainable Communities.” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will speak on June 26th. Governor Lisa Cook will speak on June 27 at 9:15 a.m.

· Thursday, June 26, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy before the New York Association for Business Economics.

· Friday, June 27, 10:00 a.m. Basel Time – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams moderates a session featuring keynote remarks from Professor Carmen Reinhart at the 24th Bank of International Settlements Annual Conference.

· Friday, June 27, 4:30 p.m. – The Federal Reserve releases the results of bank stress tests.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Thursday, June 26, 10:00 a.m. – The SEC will hold a Closed Meeting.

· Thursday, June 26, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC hosts a Roundtable on Executive Compensation Disclosure Requirements.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Monday, June 23, 7:30 p.m. UK Time – Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham will receive an award and deliver remarks at the UK House of Lords “100 Impact Leaders” Dinner and Award.

· Thursday, June 26, 1:10 p.m. UK Time – Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham to participate in a fireside chat at the Citi Institute Future of Finance Forum in London.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· Thursday, June 27, 10:00 a.m. – The FDIC board will meet. They are scheduled to vote on the leverage ratio proposal.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Monday, June 23, 1:30 p.m. – The Brookings Institution holds a discussion on "The House Financial Services Committee Agenda." House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark) will speak.

· Tuesday, June 24, 2:00 p.m. – The Cato Institute holds a policy forum entitled “Removing Barriers to Capital Formation.”

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/22/25 Francis Kelly 6/22/25

The Global Week Ahead

June 22 - 29, 2025

The US Attacked Iran – Now What?, The NATO Summit Convenes, Followed by the European Council, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Defense Ministers Meet, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before Congress

As we write this, the world is waking up to learn that President Donald Trump ordered the attack on three Iranian nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – and, reportedly, a number of other strategic Iranian sites. According to Trump Administration officials, the attacks “obliterated” the targets, but US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Daniel Caine said it was “way too early” to comment on whether Iran retained nuclear capabilities. Damage assessments are being conducted by the US and Isreal, and we are likely to learn a lot more of the effectiveness of the attacks in the coming days.

Additionally, as Israeli Defense Force (IDF) sources have said, “it is too early to tell” if Iran moved any fissile materials from Fordow before the strike. What we are watching for now are three things:

What will Iran do to retaliate against the US? Will they attack US forces stationed in the region (there are close to 50,000 US troops stationed at a number of bases in the Middle East).
Will Iran move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz (as Iran’s Parliament voted to do this morning), paralyzing energy shipping and further raising tensions in the region with Gulf State nations. Only the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can make that decision, which ultimately would severely damage Iran’s already brittle economy.
Will Iran dare to activate suspected sleeper cells in the US and elsewhere to attack? Do they even have such cells in the US?

As all this takes place, the 2025 NATO Summit begins on Tuesday in the Netherlands, bringing together the leaders of all the NATO members, including President Trump. Other non-NATO heads of state have been invited to attend, including the Prime Ministers of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Ukraine, as well as the Presidents of South Korea, the European Council, and the European Commission.

There are two things’ markets should watch at the Summit: Will Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee get a chance to talk with Trump on the sidelines to secure trade agreements (something they had hoped to do at the G7 but did not happen as Trump left the summit early to return to Washington to deal with Iran). And second, will NATO members collectively agree to an increase in defense spending targets from 2% of GDP to 3.5% for defense spending, with an additional 1.5% for infrastructure spending, bringing the level to 5% of GDP? And by what timeline – 2030 or 2035?

European leaders will then roll into a European Council meeting on Thursday, where the Middle East will again dominate the agenda, as will defense spending, and trying to figure out a trade agreement with the US.

Elsewhere in the world this week, the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be meeting in China. The SCO is composed of Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, and again, the situation in Iran will dominate the agenda. But it is expected that the SCO may touch on ongoing border tensions between India and China, ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India, and Ukraine.

In Washington this week, the two big events will be the US Senate’s continued efforts to hammer out a compromise among Senate Republicans on President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) has said he wants to bring it to a vote this week but we believe it likely to slip into next week as Congress is going to be distracted by President Trump’s Iran action along with real disagreements on the substance of the bill, mostly around state and local taxes (SALT) exemptions and Section 899 which would give the US Treasury the power to place tough taxes on foreign corporations from countries that place heavy taxes on US corporations.

The second event markets are going to be watching closely is Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s testimony Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee on the state of the economy. With all that is going on geopolitically and with President Trump’s tariffs, these should be lively hearings (to say the least).

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond Powell’s testimony, markets will be listening closely to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s comments Monday before the EU Parliament and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony before the House of Lords.

In the US, the May PCE report is released this week, as well as Q1 GDP numbers. And the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is out on Tuesday.

In Asia, Japan’s June CPI is released on Friday, as well as the Bank of Japan’s minutes from their last meeting on Wednesday. China’s May Industrial profits are out on Friday, too.

In Europe, the Eurozone’s June economic sentiment reports are out on Friday, Germany’s Ifo Survey on Tuesday, and France and Spain’s June CPI on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is scheduled to visit Israel. He will address the Israeli Knesset (NOTE: Johnson’s trip may be canceled because of the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Iran.)

· Today is the tentative date Telsa will launch their new Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a monetary policy insights panel before the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections take place. There are 127 seats representing the 14 million residents of Tokyo open for election.

· Today is the 60th anniversary of Japan and South Korea establishing diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The US-Africa Business Summit begins in Luanda, Angola. More than 1,500 attendees including a number of African government leaders, are expected to attend the three-day event.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 23, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) followed by consultations..

· The 7th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting begins in Milan, Italy. The Meeting is also the 27th meeting of the Committee for Environmental Protection — running until July 3.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy and banking at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

· The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds a virtual discussion with business and community leaders on "the effects that labor market conditions, inflation, and interest rates have on them.” The event is being hosted by SUNY Schenectady Community College. New York Fed President John Williams will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash/ Existing Home Sales (May)

· Mexico Economic Activity (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Paraguay PPI (May)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India is expected to re-open its airspace to commercial Pakistani planes following the recent fighting between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. The agenda includes an update and discussion of the situation in Ukraine, China and European security issues, the situation in the Middle East and Libya, and the situation in Georgia.

· The EU-Canada Summit takes in Brussels. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with EU President Ursala von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa. The topics will cover the current geopolitical situation, economy and trade, and a number of sectorial issues they can improve on cooperation.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through June 24. the Council will seek to reach a general approach on a regulation on a forest monitoring framework for resilient European forests. The proposal aims to establish a high-quality forest monitoring system to track progress on achieving EU targets and policy objectives concerning forests.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through June 24 in Warsaw, Poland.

· The Net Zero Delivery Summit, hosted by the City of London Corporation, part of London Climate Action Week, takes place in London. Speakers include Lord Mayor of the City of London Alastair King.

· Today is Victory Day in Estonia, a national holiday celebrating when the country sought independence following the end of World War I.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

· Spain Balance of Trade (April)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)

· Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April & May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya this will be followed by consultations. In the afternoon there will be a briefing on non-proliferation.

· The Internet Governance Forum Summit takes place in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to present a process for adding additional tariffs on auto parts.

· The New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on monetary policy before the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025.

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.

· The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City holds a virtual discussion on "the current state of the agricultural economy and future prospects, part of its "Fed Listens" series. Speakers will include Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr and Jeff Schmid, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the “State of the Nation's Housing 2025" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (June)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (June)

· Canada Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI Median (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)

· USA Current Account Q1/ Redbook (June/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ House Price Index (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index/ Money Supply (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/20)

· Chile PPI (May)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In China, the 14th National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee (NPCSC) - China’s senior legislative body - convenes for its 16th session, running until Friday. The committee will review draft revisions to the Public Security Administrative Penalty Law, the Law against Unfair Competition, the Maritime Law, the Fisheries Law, and the Civil Aviation Law, as well as draft laws on responding to public health emergencies, and promoting publicity and education on the rule of law.

· The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) AIIB begins a three-day annual meeting in Beijing to elect a successor to founding President Jin Liqun. He is due to step down next January after serving two five-year terms from the bank's inception. The favorite to replace him is China's nominee, Zou Jiayi, who is one of the more than 200 elite members of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee.

· The annual summer meeting of the World Economic Forum returns to Tianjin, near Beijing. Among the speakers at the three-day forum are Richard Liu, founder and chairman of Chinese online retailer JD.com; Dai Houliang, chairman of China National Petroleum; and Faisal Alibrahim, the minister of economy and planning of Saudi Arabia. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who is on a first visit to China as prime minister from June 22 to 26, will also speak at the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Index (April)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 2025 NATO Summit begins in the Hague, Netherlands. The primary focus of the Summit was expected to be the War in Ukraine. However with the US bombing of Iran this past weekend, the Iranian issue will likely dominate talks. Additionally, a number of non-NATO member leaders will be attendance including Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. Both Ishiba and Lee are hoping to use the opportunity to move forward with a trade deal with US President Trump.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. The primary topic will be preparations for the upcoming June European Council meetings on June 26-27.

· The German 2025 budget will be published by the cabinet. The government has been operating on a pro-rata provision budget due to the early elections.

· The French far-left La France Insoumise Party is expected to file a no-confidence motion against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives remarks on Britain’s return to the gold standard in 1925.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives remarks at the NIESR Conference in London.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives remarks that the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and takes Q&A at the XLII APIE seminar organized by Association of Spanish Financial journalists and Universidad Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks on the occasion of the conferral of the De Sanctis Award "Europa" to her in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025 in London, United Kingdom.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a dinner speech followed by Q&A at SSM-Senior Forum organized by A&O Shearman in Königstein, Germany.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (June)/ Ifo Current Conditions (June)/ Ifo Expectations (June)

· Poland Retail Sales (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Great Britain BoE Greene Speech/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Children and Armed Conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Organization of American States hosts its annual assembly in Antigua and Barbuda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

· The Federal Reserve holds a meeting "to discuss proposed revisions to the Board's supplementary leverage ratio standards."

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/20)/New Home Sales (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/20)/ Building Permits Final (May)

· Brazil Current Account (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)

· Colombia Business Confidence (May)

· Argentina Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers Meeting will take place in Qingdao, China. The attendees will be from member countries China, Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.

· The ASEAN IA Summit takes place in Kuala Lumpur.

· Today is the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s invasion of South Korea.

· Nikkei and the Financial Times are co-hosting Energy Transition Summit Asia 2025 in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Fukushima, Japan.

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index Final (April)/ Leading Economic Index Final (April)

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· India M3 Money Supply (June/13)

· Philippines Budget Balance (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Trade union workers at the Port of Antwerp are expected to either strike or run a work-slow down as they seek increased pay and better work conditions. The Antwerp Port is already significantly backlogged.

· Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating when the country declared its independence from the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991.

· Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking when the country when a plebiscite was held and 95% of voters voted for independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a keynote speech at the UK Finance Digital Innovation Summit in London.

· Euro Area New Car Registrations (May)/ ECB Donnery Speech

· France Consumer Confidence (June)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (May)/ Jobseekers Total (May)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (May)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

· Russia Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Mozambique Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Global

· The Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

· Today is the 80th Anniversary of the first 50 countries signing the Charter of the United Nations, effectively found the United Nations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds its 2025 Policy Summit, beginning at 9 a.m., with the theme "Building Strong and Sustainable Communities.” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will speak on June 26th. Governor Lisa Cook will speak on June 27 at 9:15 a.m.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy before the New York Association for Business Economics.

· Brazil BCB Monetary Policy Report/ IPCA mid-month CPI (June)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· USA Durable Goods Orders (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/21)/ PCE Prices Q1/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/25)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (April)/ Wholesale Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (June)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

· Malaysia PPI (May)

· Singapore Industrial Production (May)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Council meets in Brussels through June 27. EU leaders will gather to discuss a host of issues ranging from Ukraine to the situation in Iran, EU competitiveness, and the situation in Gaza.

· Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank holds a General Council Meeting (virtual).

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the British Chamber of Commerce Global Annual Conference in London.

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives the opening speech at the 150th anniversary of Münchner Opernfestspiele in Munich, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a virtual the Deutsche Bank Forum 2025 being held in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel speaks and participates on a panel discussion at the 'Wirtschaftsrat der CDU' Finanzmarktklausur in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUL

· Hungary Current Account Q1

· Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech/ CBI Distributive Trades (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

· Russia Corporate Profits (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Iran Local Elections

· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Madagascar Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q2/ PPI (May)

Friday, June 27, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan followed by consultations, and in the afternoon is scheduled to have a briefing United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations.

· The 24th Bank for International Settlements Annual Conference will be held in Basel, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams moderates a session featuring keynote remarks from Professor Carmen Reinhart at the 24th Bank of International Settlements Annual Conference.

· The Federal Reserve releases the results of its annual bank stress tests.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June)/ Bank Lending (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

· USA Personal Income (May)/ PCE Price Index (May)/ Core PCE Price Index (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (May)

· Canada GDP (April)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

· El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Paraguay Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Uruguay Current Account Q1

· Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou leads a delegation of students on a tour of China.

· Today is National Unity Day in Tajikistan, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Tokyo CPI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (May)/ Current Account Final Q1

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June)

· Thailand Industrial Production (May)

· Singapore Export Prices (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ PPI (May)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 18th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

· European Council on Foreign Relations begins its two-day annual council meeting in Warsaw, where policymakers and thought leaders will gather to discuss pressing global challenges

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Car Production (May)/ Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (May)

· France Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (May)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (June)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)

· Italy Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Industrial Sales (April)/ PPI (May)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence Final (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Foreign Ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are scheduled to sign a peace agreement in the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The deal will result in Rwandan forces to withdraw from eastern Congo and the creation of a regional economic integration framework.

· Today is Djibouti Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Ukraine.

· Today is Armed Forces Day in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs a panel discussion at Petersberger Sommerdialog 2025 in Königswinter (Bonn), Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 6/20/25 Francis Kelly 6/20/25

Is Germany Without the Debt Brake on the Right Track?

The International Economy Magazine

June 2025

I was delighted to be asked to contribute to International Economy Magazine on the topic "Is Germany Without the Debt Brake on the Right Track?" You can read my contribution HERE, along with the excellent assessments of other economic luminaries far smarter than I am.

My sense is that, between Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and ominous threats against the rest of Eastern Europe and President Trump’s lukewarm (at best) commitment to the defense of Europe, we are beginning to see a significant economic and military shift in Europe. In essence, Trump will - perhaps unintentionally, perhaps intentionally — “Make Europe Great Again” as a global economic bloc while building up its military to world-class standards.

And it will be Germany leading the way. Berlin made its intentions perfectly clear earlier this year when it lifted its sacrosanct Debt Brake, while putting down an initial down payment of €100 billion for defense and infrastructure modernization, most of which will be tech-based, resulting in enormous, long -term commercial spin-off benefits (much like we have witnessed in the U.S.). Germany says it will take them 10 years to build up their military - I am betting it will be closer to five years. With it will come the birth of German tech giants that will increasingly compete with US tech giants. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: The economic and political status quo is over, and a new dawn is breaking over Europe that will likely be quite positive for investors and for democracy overall.

I hope you find this of interest, along with the other excellent essays offered on this historic topic.

Francis Kelly 6/16/25 Francis Kelly 6/16/25

Senate Tax Draft Sets Up A Big Fight

The Senate Finance Committee’s Draft Tax Portion of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) differs from the House Version in Big Ways and Suggests a Prolonged Fight is Ahead

This afternoon, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee released the tax portion of the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – OBBA – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill.

We are still reviewing the draft (it is more than 500 pages long), but our initial read of the draft shows it diverges significantly from the House version on several important and contentious points, including:

Delaying until 2027 implementation of Section 899, softening the House’s version of the provision by raising the rate by 5 percent a year until it hits a 15% cap (the House version goes immediately to 20%).
Lowering the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $10,000, down from the House version which set the deduction at $40,000.
Cutting Medicaid more aggressively than the House does (something President Trump had warned against doing).
Softening and slowing the House phase-out of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) solar energy tax credits.

We are including a link to the Finance Committee’s “Landing Page,” which has links to all sorts of other data including an interactive map which breaks down how their draft impacts each staff:

The US Senate Finance Committee’s 2025 Tax Reform Landing Page: https://www.finance.senate.gov/tax-reform-2025
Bill Summary: https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/finance_committee_summary1.pdf
Section-by-Section Analysis (copy attached and link here):https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/finance_committee_section-by-section_title_vii3.pdf
The Draft Legislative Text:https://www.finance.senate.gov/download/finance-committee-legislative-text-title-vii

We expect the Senate to begin some debate on the legislation this week but with Thursday being a federal holiday (Juneteenth), real debate will begin next week. The Senate is going to race to try and pass their version as soon as possible to meet President Trump’s request to have a final bill – agreed to with the House of Representatives – on his desk for signature by July 4th.

But seeing the significant differences between the Senate and House on the SALT provisions, Section 899, and Medicaid cuts - all highly contentious issues which House Republicans spent the last several weeks loudly warning Senate Republicans not to change – we see it as unlikely Congress will meet the July 4th deadline. Instead, we do not see easy compromises on these points suggesting to us efforts to reach a deal could go for the better part of the summer.

Please let us know if you have any questions.

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Is Germany Without the Debt Brake on the Right Track?

The International Economy Magazine

June 2025

Senate Tax Draft Sets Up A Big Fight

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