The Global Week Ahead

Jul 6

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Extension Ends, The BRICS+ Summit Concludes, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Returns to the White House, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet, The Eurogroup Gathers While Fed Minutes Are Released

July 6 - 13, 2025

It may be summer in the Northern Hemisphere, but there is a lot going on in Washington, Europe, and Asia this week. The biggest event politically and for markets this week comes on Wednesday when President Trump’s 90-day extension on placing “reciprocal tariffs” ends. At that point, President Trump is expected to revert back to the April 2nd rates on all countries that fail to secure a trade deal with the US. Or at least that was the case until Sunday morning when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the actual reversion date will now be August 1st. The White House is sending letters to 100 smaller countries, after which the larger tariffs will take effect by that date.

EU financial ministers will gather for a Eurogroup meeting this week in Brussels, where US trade relations will be a major agenda item. The European Commission and the European Parliament are also expected to hold discussions on the US tariffs and strategies for reaching a deal.

Meanwhile, the BRICS+ Leaders’ Summit concludes on Monday in Brazil. The Summit lacked the hoped-for heft and impact after Chinese President Xi Jinping cancelled his attendance due to “scheduling conflicts,” and Russian President Vladimir Putin said he could not attend, mostly out of fear of being arrested for war crimes. Markets will be watching for the final communique and any indications of what comes next for the BRICS.

Also on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be in Washington for a meeting with President Trump. It is Netanyahu’s third trip to Washington to meet with the President since Trump was inaugurated in January. The agenda is a big one: The two leaders are going to discuss the situation in Gaza, and Trump is expected to press Netanyahu on a more permanent ceasefire. They are also expected to discuss what comes next with Iran. There has been talk that US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff might meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi Monday – or perhaps later in the week – in Oslo, Norway, to discuss Iran’s nuclear program. But this has yet to be confirmed.

In Asia this week, ASEAN Foreign Ministers are going to be meeting in Kuala Lumpur on the sidelines of the ASEAN Regional Forum and the East Asia Summit – two of the biggest, most important multilateral meetings held in the region annually. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will be attending as will Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was scheduled to attend but cancelled at the end of last week to stay in Washington to focus on the Netanyahu meeting and the Iran nuclear talks. Rubio was also scheduled to fly to Japan and then South Korea to meet with his counterparts about regional security issues, but he has canceled that trip, too.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, next to the July 9th tariff deadline set by President Trump expiring, markets will be looking at the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes, which are being released on Wednesday. Specifically, the focus will be on how divided the Fed might be on the issue of cutting interest rates – especially after Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman indicated recently they were in favor of cutting rates.

In Europe, markets are looking at the UK GDP release on Friday, Germany’s industrial production numbers on Monday, and the trade balance on Tuesday. And in Asia, China’s CPI is released on Wednesday, Japan releases wage data for May on Monday and the Economy Watchers report on Tuesday, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision on Tuesday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, July 6, 2025

Global

· The 15th BRICS Leaders’ Summit begins in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and runs through July 7. Eleven members are expected to be represented. However, neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Russian President Vladimir Putin are going to attend.

· The OPEC+ monthly meeting will be held (virtually)

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The 49th CARICOM (Caribbean Community) Heads of Government Meeting begins in Montego Bay, Jamaica and runs through July 8.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Dalai Lama is expected to reveal his succession plan via a video announcement.

· The Emperor of Japan will make an official visit to Mongolia through next Sunday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Vietnam Balance of Trade (June)/ Foreign Direct Investment (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q2/ Industrial Production (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Japan Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Africa Spain Summit begins and runs through July 8 in Madrid. Government representatives from Guinea-Bissau, Somalia, Morocco and Sierra Leone will attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is National Day in Comoros, a national holiday.

· Today is Independence Day in Malawi, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, July 7, 2025

Global

· The International Seabed Authority Council meets in Kingston, Jamaica.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with President Trump in Washington, D.C. The two leaders are expected to discuss next step on dealing with Iran as well as the situation in Gaza. This is the third visit by Netanyahu since Trump took office in January. As this meeting takes place, US Special Envoy Steven Witkoff may be meeting in Oslo, Norway with the Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to discuss Iran’s nuclear development (but that meeting is yet to be confirmed).

· President Trump said on Friday the US will begin negotiations with China on a potential deal regarding TikTok. The President said “we pretty much have a deal. I think we are going to start Monday or Tuesday…”

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Auto Exports (June)/ Auto Production (June)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

· Brazil Car Production (June)/ New Car Registrations (June)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Inflation Rate (June)

· USA Fed Balance Sheet (July/02)

· Colombia Inflation Rate (June)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· El Salvador Inflation Rate (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Solomon Islands Independence Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Average Cash Earnings (May)/ Overtime Pay (May)/ Coincident Index (May)/ Leading Economic Index (May)

· Australia ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (June)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Thailand Inflation Rate (June)

· Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Philippines Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup meets in Brussels. The agenda includes fiscal policy coordination, the growing international role of the euro, and Bulgaria’s engagement in the EU. The ministers will also elect a president for the next term.

· Poland will launch border controls with Germany to halt the flow of illegal migrants.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU labor ministers in Aalborg, Denmark.

· Polish President Andrzej Duga visits Prague for bilateral talks.

· German Foreign Minister Johan Wadepul will make a working visit to Prague.

· The France-Central European Countries and Ukraine Business Forum takes place in Paris, France.

· Today is the beginning of Paris Fashion Week for Haute Couture for the fall/winter season.

· Today is the Running of the Bulls, otherwise known as the annual Festival of San Fermin.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel speaks on “The German economy: navigating cyclical fluctuations and boosting long-term growth” at the Ragnar Nurkse lecture in Tallinn, Estonia.

· Germany Industrial Production (May)

· Romania Retail Sales (May)

· Great Britain Halifax House Price Index (June)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (June)

· Hungary Retail Sales (May)

· France Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Slovakia Retail Sales (May)

· Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Euro Area Retail Sales (May)

· Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (June)

· Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Tourist Arrivals (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Kuwait Private Bank Lending (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Heroes of Zambia Day, a national holiday honoring those who fought for the country’s independence.

· Today is Saba Day in Tanzania, a national holiday celebrating the unification of political parties seeing independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Egypt S&P Global PMI (June)

· South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Global

· The UN will host The AI for Good Global Summit 2025 in Geneva, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (June)/ Redbook (July/05)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Consumer Credit Change (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (July/04)/ Used Car Prices (June)

· Brazil Retail Sales (May)

· Chile Inflation Rate (June)

· Argentina Industrial Production (May)

· Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet while also attending the East Asia Summit (which runs through Thursday) and the ASEAN Regional Forum in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. US Secretary of State Maco Rubio was set to attend as well as meet with his counterparts in side trips to Japan and South Korea but cancelled for focus on Middle East issues. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and the EU High Representative Vice President Kaja Kallas are expected to attend.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Japan Current Account (May)/ Bank Lending (June)/ Eco Watchers Survey Current & Outlook (June)

· Philippines Unemployment Rate (May)/ Industrial Production (May)

· Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference/Australia NAB Business Confidence (June)

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (June)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels. Ministers will discuss the Stability and Growth Pact, the Danish Presidency work program, the Savings and Investment Union, and the Recovery and Resilience Facility.

· French President Emmanual Macron makes a head of state visit to London. Macron will be hosted by King Charles and Queen Camilla through Thursday. Macron will also address the British Parliament as part of an effort to strengthen UK-EU ties.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen will in an exchange of views with the EP Conference of Presidents on the next Multiannual Financial Framework.

· Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez addresses parliament over Socialist party corruption scandal .

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ireland Construction PMI (June)

· Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Hungary Inflation Rate (June)/ Budget Balance (June)

· France Imports/ Exports/Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account (May)

· Greece Balance of Trade (May)

· Romania Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (June)

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

· The OECD releases its Employment Outlook report for OECD member countries. The outlook will also include an analysis of declining fertility globally and its impact on future employment and economic growth.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump’s 90 day pause on “reciprocal tariffs” is set to expire.

· President Trump will host the Africa-US Leaders’ Summit in Washington, D.C. The heads of state from Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, and Senegal are expected to attend the conference which runs through July 11 and will focus on mutual economic opportunities and regional security.

· The 12th International Aeronautics Fair begins in Colombia.

· Today is Argentine Independence Day, a national holiday.

· Today is State Rebellion Day in Brazil.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Federal Reserve Board Open Market Meeting Minutes

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (July/04)/ Wholesale Inventories (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (July/04)/

· Mexico Inflation Rate (June)

· El Salvador PPI (June)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan will hold live-fire military drills as part of their annual Han Kuang exercise. The drill simulates a possible attack by China and lasts for ten days and will involve thousands of reservists.

· Today is Palau Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser gives a speech at the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney/ RBA Chart Pack/ Building Permits (May)/ Private House Approvals (May)/ RBA Hunter Speech

· China Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (June)

· New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

· Indonesia Retail Sales (May)/ Car Sales (June)/ Motorbike Sales (June)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (June)

· Malaysia Interest Rate Decision

· India M3 Money Supply (June/27)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Germany Chancellor Friedrich Merz greets NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on a visit to Germany to celebrate the country’s 70th anniversary of its membership in NATO.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech and participates in a Q&A on the monetary policy agenda at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives closing remarks at the Cursos de Verano CEU-El Escorial "La Economía Española: realidad y perspectivas" in El Escorial, Spain.

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (May)

· Greece Inflation Rate (June)

· Great Britain BoE Financial Stability Report

· Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese Premier Li Qiang visits will visit Egypt for bilateral talks.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (June)

· Jordan GDP Growth Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Namibia for talks on economic cooperation.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, July 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA). In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Sudan.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Bahamas Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller entitled “Balance Sheet” at a Conversation with Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and the World Affairs Council of Dallas/Fort Worth, Dallas, Texas.

· Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary C. Daly will join MNI Connect for a virtual conversation on “The US Economic Outlook and Challenges for Policymakers.”

· St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks.

· Brazil Inflation Rate (June)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (July/05)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (June/28)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (July)/Fed Balance Sheet (July/09)

· Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Top military commanders from the US, South Korea, and Japan will meet in Seoul to discuss regional security issues, mostly focusing on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program..

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (May)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (July/05)/ PPI (June)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (July)

· South Korea Interest Rate Decision

· Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (June)

· Malaysia Unemployment Rate (May)

· Kazakhstan PPI (June)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Environment Ministers in Brussels through July 11.

· The Ukraine Recovery Conference takes place in Rome through July 11. The meeting will be hosted by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen faces a European parliament no-confidence vote in latest challenge to the European Commission president, the first time since 2014 that the head of the commission has faced such a move. However, the vote will mainly be symbolic as she is expected to survive

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a lecture on "Ever changing payment landscape: What will a digital euro bring?" followed by a discussion with Vice Governor Marko Pahor organized by Banka Slovenije in Ljubljana, Slovakia.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden gives the Annual Chapman-Barrigan Lecture entitled “Weathering the Storm: Stability in a Changing Climate” in London.

· Germany Inflation Rate (June)

· Romania Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Slovakia Industrial Production (May)

· Turkey Industrial Production (May)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/04)

· Italy Industrial Production (May)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (May)

· Greece Industrial Production (May)

· Ireland Industrial Production (May)/ Inflation Rate (June)

· Serbia Interest Rate Decision

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (June)

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The African Union Executive Council will meet in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea through July 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (May)

· Egypt Inflation Rate (June)/ Core Inflation Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Friday, July 11, 2025

Global

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) July Oil Markets Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· President Trump is expected to visit Texas to see the impact of recent catastrophic flash floods.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mexico Industrial Production (May)

· Canada Unemployment Rate (June)/ Employment Change (June)/ Participation Rate (June)/Average Hourly Wages (June)

· Brazil Business Confidence (July)

· USA WASDE Report/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (July)/ Monthly Budget Statement (June)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (June)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (June)

· Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q2

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (April)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases

· Malaysia Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (July/04)

· China Vehicle Sales (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone participates in a panel 'Integration of the Ukrainian Financial Sector into the European Internal Market' at Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC2025) in Rome, Italy.

· Germany Wholesale Prices (June)/ Current Account (May)

· Romania Inflation Rate (June)

· Great Britain GDP (May)/ Goods Trade Balance (May)/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Construction Output (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ Manufacturing Production (May)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (June)

· France Inflation Rate (June)/ IEA Oil Market Report

· Slovakia Construction Output (May)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Turkey Current Account (May)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Auto Production (June)/ Auto Sales (June)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (June)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (June)

· Russia Balance of Trade (May)/ Current Account Q2/ Inflation Rate (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (June)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (June)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Angola Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, July 12, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Independence Day in Kiribati, a small island in the South Pacific which gained its independence from the UK in 1979.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (June)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the first anniversary of President Trump being shot at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japan holds the Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words enemies of Imperial Japan.

The Global Week Ahead

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