Fulcrum Perspectives

An interactive blog sharing the Fulcrum team's policy updates and analysis.

Francis Kelly 6/22/25 Francis Kelly 6/22/25

The Global Week Ahead

June 22 - 29, 2025

The US Attacked Iran – Now What?, The NATO Summit Convenes, Followed by the European Council, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Defense Ministers Meet, and Fed Chair Powell Testifies Before Congress

As we write this, the world is waking up to learn that President Donald Trump ordered the attack on three Iranian nuclear sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – and, reportedly, a number of other strategic Iranian sites. According to Trump Administration officials, the attacks “obliterated” the targets, but US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Daniel Caine said it was “way too early” to comment on whether Iran retained nuclear capabilities. Damage assessments are being conducted by the US and Isreal, and we are likely to learn a lot more of the effectiveness of the attacks in the coming days.

Additionally, as Israeli Defense Force (IDF) sources have said, “it is too early to tell” if Iran moved any fissile materials from Fordow before the strike. What we are watching for now are three things:

What will Iran do to retaliate against the US? Will they attack US forces stationed in the region (there are close to 50,000 US troops stationed at a number of bases in the Middle East).
Will Iran move to shut down the Strait of Hormuz (as Iran’s Parliament voted to do this morning), paralyzing energy shipping and further raising tensions in the region with Gulf State nations. Only the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, can make that decision, which ultimately would severely damage Iran’s already brittle economy.
Will Iran dare to activate suspected sleeper cells in the US and elsewhere to attack? Do they even have such cells in the US?

As all this takes place, the 2025 NATO Summit begins on Tuesday in the Netherlands, bringing together the leaders of all the NATO members, including President Trump. Other non-NATO heads of state have been invited to attend, including the Prime Ministers of Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and Ukraine, as well as the Presidents of South Korea, the European Council, and the European Commission.

There are two things’ markets should watch at the Summit: Will Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee get a chance to talk with Trump on the sidelines to secure trade agreements (something they had hoped to do at the G7 but did not happen as Trump left the summit early to return to Washington to deal with Iran). And second, will NATO members collectively agree to an increase in defense spending targets from 2% of GDP to 3.5% for defense spending, with an additional 1.5% for infrastructure spending, bringing the level to 5% of GDP? And by what timeline – 2030 or 2035?

European leaders will then roll into a European Council meeting on Thursday, where the Middle East will again dominate the agenda, as will defense spending, and trying to figure out a trade agreement with the US.

Elsewhere in the world this week, the defense ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will be meeting in China. The SCO is composed of Belarus, China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, and again, the situation in Iran will dominate the agenda. But it is expected that the SCO may touch on ongoing border tensions between India and China, ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India, and Ukraine.

In Washington this week, the two big events will be the US Senate’s continued efforts to hammer out a compromise among Senate Republicans on President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-ND) has said he wants to bring it to a vote this week but we believe it likely to slip into next week as Congress is going to be distracted by President Trump’s Iran action along with real disagreements on the substance of the bill, mostly around state and local taxes (SALT) exemptions and Section 899 which would give the US Treasury the power to place tough taxes on foreign corporations from countries that place heavy taxes on US corporations.

The second event markets are going to be watching closely is Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s testimony Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee and Wednesday before the Senate Banking Committee on the state of the economy. With all that is going on geopolitically and with President Trump’s tariffs, these should be lively hearings (to say the least).

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, beyond Powell’s testimony, markets will be listening closely to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s comments Monday before the EU Parliament and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s testimony before the House of Lords.

In the US, the May PCE report is released this week, as well as Q1 GDP numbers. And the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is out on Tuesday.

In Asia, Japan’s June CPI is released on Friday, as well as the Bank of Japan’s minutes from their last meeting on Wednesday. China’s May Industrial profits are out on Friday, too.

In Europe, the Eurozone’s June economic sentiment reports are out on Friday, Germany’s Ifo Survey on Tuesday, and France and Spain’s June CPI on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· U.S. Speaker of the House Michael Johnson (R-LA) is scheduled to visit Israel. He will address the Israeli Knesset (NOTE: Johnson’s trip may be canceled because of the outbreak of fighting between Israel and Iran.)

· Today is the tentative date Telsa will launch their new Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

· San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in a monetary policy insights panel before the Western Economic Association International 100th Annual Conference.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections take place. There are 127 seats representing the 14 million residents of Tokyo open for election.

· Today is the 60th anniversary of Japan and South Korea establishing diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The US-Africa Business Summit begins in Luanda, Angola. More than 1,500 attendees including a number of African government leaders, are expected to attend the three-day event.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 23, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open briefing on the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) followed by consultations..

· The 7th Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting begins in Milan, Italy. The Meeting is also the 27th meeting of the Committee for Environmental Protection — running until July 3.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives opening remarks at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

· Federal Reserve Vice Chair Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman gives a speech on monetary policy and banking at the 2025 International Journal of Central Banking Conference, Prague 1, Czech Republic.

· The Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds a virtual discussion with business and community leaders on "the effects that labor market conditions, inflation, and interest rates have on them.” The event is being hosted by SUNY Schenectady Community College. New York Fed President John Williams will speak along with Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler.

· Monday, June 24, 12:10 p.m. Central Time – Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Milwaukee Business Journal Mid-Year Outlook 2025.

· USA S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash/ Existing Home Sales (May)

· Mexico Economic Activity (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Argentina GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Paraguay PPI (May)

· El Salvador Balance of Trade (May)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

· Costa Rica Balance of Trade (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· India is expected to re-open its airspace to commercial Pakistani planes following the recent fighting between the two countries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Final Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Indonesia M2 Money Supply (May)

· India HSBC Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Taiwan Unemployment Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Foreign Affairs Council meets in Brussels. The agenda includes an update and discussion of the situation in Ukraine, China and European security issues, the situation in the Middle East and Libya, and the situation in Georgia.

· The EU-Canada Summit takes in Brussels. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will meet with EU President Ursala von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa. The topics will cover the current geopolitical situation, economy and trade, and a number of sectorial issues they can improve on cooperation.

· The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets through June 24. the Council will seek to reach a general approach on a regulation on a forest monitoring framework for resilient European forests. The proposal aims to establish a high-quality forest monitoring system to track progress on achieving EU targets and policy objectives concerning forests.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Tourism Ministers through June 24 in Warsaw, Poland.

· The Net Zero Delivery Summit, hosted by the City of London Corporation, part of London Climate Action Week, takes place in London. Speakers include Lord Mayor of the City of London Alastair King.

· Today is Victory Day in Estonia, a national holiday celebrating when the country sought independence following the end of World War I.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives an introductory statement at the ECON Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

· France HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)/ ECB President Lagarde Speech

· Poland Corporate Sector Wages (May)/ Employment Growth (May)/ Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

· Spain Balance of Trade (April)

· Turkey Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Great Britain S&P Global Manufacturing/ Services/ Composite PMI Flash (June)

· Ireland Wholesale Prices (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Lebanon Inflation Rate (May)

· Israel Current Account Q1/ M1 Money Supply (May)/ Manufacturing PMI (April & May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya this will be followed by consultations. In the afternoon there will be a briefing on non-proliferation.

· The Internet Governance Forum Summit takes place in Oslo, Norway.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the deadline for Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to present a process for adding additional tariffs on auto parts.

· The New York City Democratic Mayoral Primary will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack speaks on monetary policy before the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025.

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee.

· The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City holds a virtual discussion on "the current state of the agricultural economy and future prospects, part of its "Fed Listens" series. Speakers will include Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr and Jeff Schmid, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

· Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins speaks before the “State of the Nation's Housing 2025" event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

· Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes/ FGV Consumer Confidence (June)

· Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate (June)

· Canada Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI Median (May)/ Manufacturing Sales (May)

· USA Current Account Q1/ Redbook (June/21)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (April)/ House Price Index (April)/ CB Consumer Confidence (June)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index/ Money Supply (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/20)

· Chile PPI (May)

· Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In China, the 14th National People’s Congress’ Standing Committee (NPCSC) - China’s senior legislative body - convenes for its 16th session, running until Friday. The committee will review draft revisions to the Public Security Administrative Penalty Law, the Law against Unfair Competition, the Maritime Law, the Fisheries Law, and the Civil Aviation Law, as well as draft laws on responding to public health emergencies, and promoting publicity and education on the rule of law.

· The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) AIIB begins a three-day annual meeting in Beijing to elect a successor to founding President Jin Liqun. He is due to step down next January after serving two five-year terms from the bank's inception. The favorite to replace him is China's nominee, Zou Jiayi, who is one of the more than 200 elite members of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee.

· The annual summer meeting of the World Economic Forum returns to Tianjin, near Beijing. Among the speakers at the three-day forum are Richard Liu, founder and chairman of Chinese online retailer JD.com; Dai Houliang, chairman of China National Petroleum; and Faisal Alibrahim, the minister of economy and planning of Saudi Arabia. Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who is on a first visit to China as prime minister from June 22 to 26, will also speak at the forum.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Consumer Confidence (June)

· New Zealand Credit Card Spending (May)

· Malaysia Inflation Rate (May)/ Coincident Index (April)/ Leading Index (April)

· Taiwan Industrial Production (May)/ Retail Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 2025 NATO Summit begins in the Hague, Netherlands. The primary focus of the Summit was expected to be the War in Ukraine. However with the US bombing of Iran this past weekend, the Iranian issue will likely dominate talks. Additionally, a number of non-NATO member leaders will be attendance including Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. Both Ishiba and Lee are hoping to use the opportunity to move forward with a trade deal with US President Trump.

· The EU General Affairs Council meets in Luxembourg. The primary topic will be preparations for the upcoming June European Council meetings on June 26-27.

· The German 2025 budget will be published by the cabinet. The government has been operating on a pro-rata provision budget due to the early elections.

· The French far-left La France Insoumise Party is expected to file a no-confidence motion against the government.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives remarks on Britain’s return to the gold standard in 1925.

· Bank of England Member of the Monetary Policy Committee Megan Greene gives remarks at the NIESR Conference in London.

· Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden gives remarks that the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum in London.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives remarks and takes Q&A at the XLII APIE seminar organized by Association of Spanish Financial journalists and Universidad Menéndez Pelayo in Santander, Spain.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives remarks on the occasion of the conferral of the De Sanctis Award "Europa" to her in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane gives the keynote speech at the Barclays-CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2025 in London, United Kingdom.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a dinner speech followed by Q&A at SSM-Senior Forum organized by A&O Shearman in Königstein, Germany.

· Ireland Consumer Confidence (June)

· Turkey Business Confidence (June)/ Capacity Utilization (June)

· Germany Ifo Business Climate (June)/ Ifo Current Conditions (June)/ Ifo Expectations (June)

· Poland Retail Sales (May)/ M3 Money Supply (May)

· Slovenia Business Confidence (June)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Great Britain BoE Greene Speech/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (June)/ BoE Ramsden Speech/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech/ BoE Breeden Speech

· Euro Area ECB Guindos Speech/ ECB President Lagarde Speech/ ECB Lane Speech

· Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (June)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Composite Economic Index (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Children and Armed Conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Organization of American States hosts its annual assembly in Antigua and Barbuda.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

· The Federal Reserve holds a meeting "to discuss proposed revisions to the Board's supplementary leverage ratio standards."

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/20)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/20)/New Home Sales (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/20)/ Building Permits Final (May)

· Brazil Current Account (May)/ Foreign Direct Investment (May)

· Colombia Business Confidence (May)

· Argentina Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Defense Ministers Meeting will take place in Qingdao, China. The attendees will be from member countries China, Russia, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Belarus.

· The ASEAN IA Summit takes place in Kuala Lumpur.

· Today is the 75th anniversary of North Korea’s invasion of South Korea.

· Nikkei and the Financial Times are co-hosting Energy Transition Summit Asia 2025 in Jakarta.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Member of the Policy Board Naoki Tamura gives a speech to local leaders in Fukushima, Japan.

· New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Japan Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Coincident Index Final (April)/ Leading Economic Index Final (April)

· Australia Monthly CPI Indicator (May)

· Thailand Interest Rate Decision

· India M3 Money Supply (June/13)

· Philippines Budget Balance (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Trade union workers at the Port of Antwerp are expected to either strike or run a work-slow down as they seek increased pay and better work conditions. The Antwerp Port is already significantly backlogged.

· Today is Croatia Independence Day, celebrating when the country declared its independence from the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia in 1991.

· Slovenia celebrates Statehood Day, marking when the country when a plebiscite was held and 95% of voters voted for independence.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of England Executive Director Victoria Cleland gives a keynote speech at the UK Finance Digital Innovation Summit in London.

· Euro Area New Car Registrations (May)/ ECB Donnery Speech

· France Consumer Confidence (June)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (May)/ Jobseekers Total (May)

· Spain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ PPI (May)

· Poland Unemployment Rate (May)

· Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (June)/ SNB Quarterly Bulletin

· Russia Industrial Production (May)/ PPI (May)

· Ukraine GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Mozambique Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

Global

· The Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), followed by consultations.

· Today is the 80th Anniversary of the first 50 countries signing the Charter of the United Nations, effectively found the United Nations.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland holds its 2025 Policy Summit, beginning at 9 a.m., with the theme "Building Strong and Sustainable Communities.” Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will give opening remarks. Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr will speak on June 26th. Governor Lisa Cook will speak on June 27 at 9:15 a.m.

· Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on the economy before the New York Association for Business Economics.

· Brazil BCB Monetary Policy Report/ IPCA mid-month CPI (June)

· Mexico Balance of Trade (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· USA Durable Goods Orders (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (May)/ Initial Jobless Claims (June/21)/ PCE Prices Q1/ Pending Home Sales (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (June)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/26)/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/25)

· Canada Average Weekly Earnings (April)/ Wholesale Sales (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Business Confidence (June)

· Japan Foreign Bond Investment (June/21)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

· Malaysia PPI (May)

· Singapore Industrial Production (May)

· Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Thailand New Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The European Council meets in Brussels through June 27. EU leaders will gather to discuss a host of issues ranging from Ukraine to the situation in Iran, EU competitiveness, and the situation in Gaza.

· Bloomberg holds its Sustainable Business Summit in London.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The European Central Bank holds a General Council Meeting (virtual).

· Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives a speech at the British Chamber of Commerce Global Annual Conference in London.

· European Central Bank Board President Christine Lagarde gives the opening speech at the 150th anniversary of Münchner Opernfestspiele in Munich, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a virtual the Deutsche Bank Forum 2025 being held in Frankfurt, Germany.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel speaks and participates on a panel discussion at the 'Wirtschaftsrat der CDU' Finanzmarktklausur in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Germany GfK Consumer Confidence JUL

· Hungary Current Account Q1

· Great Britain BoE Breeden Speech/ CBI Distributive Trades (June)/ BoE Gov Bailey Speech

· Turkey MPC Meeting Summary/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

· Russia Corporate Profits (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Iran Local Elections

· Israel Manufacturing Production (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Madagascar Independence Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Consumer Confidence Q2/ PPI (May)

Friday, June 27, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on Sudan followed by consultations, and in the afternoon is scheduled to have a briefing United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), followed by consultations.

· The 24th Bank for International Settlements Annual Conference will be held in Basel, Switzerland.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams moderates a session featuring keynote remarks from Professor Carmen Reinhart at the 24th Bank of International Settlements Annual Conference.

· The Federal Reserve releases the results of its annual bank stress tests.

· Brazil IGP-M Inflation (June)/ Bank Lending (May)/ Unemployment Rate (May)/ Net Payrolls (May)

· USA Personal Income (May)/ PCE Price Index (May)/ Core PCE Price Index (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

· Mexico Unemployment Rate (May)

· Canada GDP (April)

· Colombia Unemployment Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Cement Production (May)

· El Salvador Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Paraguay Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Uruguay Current Account Q1

· Panama Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou leads a delegation of students on a tour of China.

· Today is National Unity Day in Tajikistan, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (June)

· Japan Unemployment Rate (May)/ Jobs/applications ratio (May)/ Tokyo CPI (June)/ Retail Sales (May)

· Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)/ Consumer Confidence Q2

· China Industrial Profits (YTD) (May)/ Current Account Final Q1

· Taiwan Consumer Confidence (June)

· Thailand Industrial Production (May)

· Singapore Export Prices (May)/ Import Prices (May)/ PPI (May)

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/20)

· Sri Lanka Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The 18th Accession Conference with Montenegro will be held in Brussels.

· European Council on Foreign Relations begins its two-day annual council meeting in Warsaw, where policymakers and thought leaders will gather to discuss pressing global challenges

Economic Reports/Events –

· Great Britain Car Production (May)/ Current Account Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Hungary Unemployment Rate (May)

· France Inflation Rate (June)/ PPI (May)

· Slovakia Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)

· Spain Inflation Rate (June)/ Retail Sales (May)/ Business Confidence (June)

· Turkey Economic Confidence Index (June)

· Italy Business Confidence (June)/ Consumer Confidence (June)/ Industrial Sales (April)/ PPI (May)

· Slovenia Retail Sales (May)

· Euro Area Economic Sentiment (June)/ Consumer Confidence Final (June)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ Industrial Sentiment (June)/ Selling Price Expectations (June)/ Services Sentiment (June)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The Foreign Ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are scheduled to sign a peace agreement in the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The deal will result in Rwandan forces to withdraw from eastern Congo and the creation of a regional economic integration framework.

· Today is Djibouti Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)

· Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (June)

Saturday, June 28, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Constitution Day in Ukraine.

· Today is Armed Forces Day in the UK.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel chairs a panel discussion at Petersberger Sommerdialog 2025 in Königswinter (Bonn), Germany.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 29, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Seychelles Independence Day, a public holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 6/20/25 Francis Kelly 6/20/25

Is Germany Without the Debt Brake on the Right Track?

The International Economy Magazine

June 2025

I was delighted to be asked to contribute to International Economy Magazine on the topic "Is Germany Without the Debt Brake on the Right Track?" You can read my contribution HERE, along with the excellent assessments of other economic luminaries far smarter than I am.

My sense is that, between Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and ominous threats against the rest of Eastern Europe and President Trump’s lukewarm (at best) commitment to the defense of Europe, we are beginning to see a significant economic and military shift in Europe. In essence, Trump will - perhaps unintentionally, perhaps intentionally — “Make Europe Great Again” as a global economic bloc while building up its military to world-class standards.

And it will be Germany leading the way. Berlin made its intentions perfectly clear earlier this year when it lifted its sacrosanct Debt Brake, while putting down an initial down payment of €100 billion for defense and infrastructure modernization, most of which will be tech-based, resulting in enormous, long -term commercial spin-off benefits (much like we have witnessed in the U.S.). Germany says it will take them 10 years to build up their military - I am betting it will be closer to five years. With it will come the birth of German tech giants that will increasingly compete with US tech giants. Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: The economic and political status quo is over, and a new dawn is breaking over Europe that will likely be quite positive for investors and for democracy overall.

I hope you find this of interest, along with the other excellent essays offered on this historic topic.

Francis Kelly 6/16/25 Francis Kelly 6/16/25

Senate Tax Draft Sets Up A Big Fight

The Senate Finance Committee’s Draft Tax Portion of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) differs from the House Version in Big Ways and Suggests a Prolonged Fight is Ahead

This afternoon, the U.S. Senate Finance Committee released the tax portion of the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act – OBBA – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill.

We are still reviewing the draft (it is more than 500 pages long), but our initial read of the draft shows it diverges significantly from the House version on several important and contentious points, including:

Delaying until 2027 implementation of Section 899, softening the House’s version of the provision by raising the rate by 5 percent a year until it hits a 15% cap (the House version goes immediately to 20%).
Lowering the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap to $10,000, down from the House version which set the deduction at $40,000.
Cutting Medicaid more aggressively than the House does (something President Trump had warned against doing).
Softening and slowing the House phase-out of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) solar energy tax credits.

We are including a link to the Finance Committee’s “Landing Page,” which has links to all sorts of other data including an interactive map which breaks down how their draft impacts each staff:

The US Senate Finance Committee’s 2025 Tax Reform Landing Page: https://www.finance.senate.gov/tax-reform-2025
Bill Summary: https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/finance_committee_summary1.pdf
Section-by-Section Analysis (copy attached and link here):https://www.finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/finance_committee_section-by-section_title_vii3.pdf
The Draft Legislative Text:https://www.finance.senate.gov/download/finance-committee-legislative-text-title-vii

We expect the Senate to begin some debate on the legislation this week but with Thursday being a federal holiday (Juneteenth), real debate will begin next week. The Senate is going to race to try and pass their version as soon as possible to meet President Trump’s request to have a final bill – agreed to with the House of Representatives – on his desk for signature by July 4th.

But seeing the significant differences between the Senate and House on the SALT provisions, Section 899, and Medicaid cuts - all highly contentious issues which House Republicans spent the last several weeks loudly warning Senate Republicans not to change – we see it as unlikely Congress will meet the July 4th deadline. Instead, we do not see easy compromises on these points suggesting to us efforts to reach a deal could go for the better part of the summer.

Please let us know if you have any questions.

Francis Kelly 6/16/25 Francis Kelly 6/16/25

The U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

A Quiet Week in Washington, The Senate Gets Set to Pass the GENIUS Act but Also Blocks An Effort to Bar Fed Paying Interest Rates on Bank Reserves, and SEC Chair Atkins Staffs Up

June 16 - 20, 2025

The Juneteenth holiday on Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the House of Representatives being out of session this week have ensured it will be a very quiet week in Washington.

But the Senate is in session, and they are feverishly working away at trying to hammer out their version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA). The Senate Finance Committee is expected to release the tax portion it has drafted, and we will all be watching for any changes that impact investment vehicles, such as pass-throughs and investment savings accounts.

Also this week, the Senate is likely to pass the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) on Tuesday, aimed at giving the crypto industry legal and regulatory clarity. Passage in the House is likely in the coming months.

Looking at what happened last week and staying with the US Senate, it was interesting to see Senate Republicans block an effort by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) to move legislation that would bar the Federal Reserve from paying interest on reserves to banks as a way to help pay for OBBA. Cruz argued that doing so would cut $1.1 trillion from the federal budget over ten years. The proposal sent minor waves of panic through the banking community but was quickly snuffed out by Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC).

Also this past week, SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced a number of senior appointments. Among those named are Akin Gump partner Brian Daly to serve as the new Director of the Investment Management, Jamie Selway, a partner at Sophron Advisors, to serve as Directo of Trading and Markets, Kurt Hohl as the Chief Accountant, and Erik Hotmire as Chief External Affairs Officer and Director of the Office of Public Affairs.

Other than two speeches by Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner (who may speak about the future of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae), there really is not much going on this week. Below is everything we could find happening:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

House of Representatives

· The House of Representatives is out of session this coming week.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

Tuesday & Wednesday, June 17 & 18 -- The Fed’s Open Market Committee meets on interest rates.

U.S. Treasury Department

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· Thursday, June 18, 1:00 p.m. – U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner gives remarks at a joint Exchequer Club – Women in Housing & Finance Lunch in Washington, D.C.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, June 17 , 2:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold an event entitled “Beyond profit: How blockchain technology can be used for the public good.”

· Wednesday, June 18, 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. – the Bipartisan Policy Center’s 2025 Terwilliger Center Summit on Housing Supply Solutions takes place in Washington, D.C. U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner will speak, as will a number of US senators, mayors, and CEOs.

· Wednesday, June 18, 1:00 p.m. – U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner gives remarks at a joint Exchequer Club – Women in Housing & Finance Lunch in Washington, D.C.

Recommended Reading

· Bloomberg: Banks Want Staff Back at the Office. There Aren’t Enough Desks — HSBC and JPMorgan are among lenders taking extra space to deal with shortages.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Francis Kelly 6/15/25 Francis Kelly 6/15/25

The Global Week Ahead

The Israeli-Iran War Expands, Canada hosts the G7+, the UN Holds a High-level Two-State Solution Conference, and the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan Meet on Interest Rates

Israel and Iran are now going into their fourth day of ballistic missile strikes on each other after Israeli fighter bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities, targeting senior Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. At the time of this writing, it appears the targeting has expanded away from military targets to civilian targets, including energy and infrastructure.

As to how long the fighting will continue, there is no clear answer but from all the conversations we have had with US government officials and Middle Eastern experts, it will likely last weeks if not months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear Israel will not let up until Iran’s growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium and all the enrichment facilities, centrifuge production lines, and other affiliated support facilities are destroyed.

But fully succeeding in destroying those facilities will not be easy, as Iran has spent years not only fortifying them but also making them particularly hard to hit. The best example of this is the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is built deep into a mountain in Qom, Iran, estimated as deep as half a mile down. It is estimated there could be as many as 3,000 centrifuges inside Fordow. But destroying the facility is particularly hard since the facilities are buried so deeply into the mountain, and Israel is not seen as having the military capability to destroy it (only the US has the capacity).

Overall, there are an estimated twelve other nuclear facilities being targeted by Israel, and, according to initial reports, many of them have been struck and destroyed by Israeli forces.

The big question for markets will be how far the fighting spreads, specifically, to the oil and gas sector. Israel has hit the main gas depot and central oil refinery in Tehran and reportedly has hit a major natural gas facility in Bushehr, Iran. And fear is growing that Israel could focus on other Iranian oil and gas facilities.

The Israeli-Iranian fighting is going to dominate the G7+ meetings that begin Monday in Canada. But the current trade tensions brought by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” will also be a major focus of the meetings. All of the G7 leaders (the US, Japan, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, and Italy) plus the invited guest leaders of India, Ukraine, Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea will be gathered in Alberta for two days of meetings. There are reports that President Trump is hoping to announce trade deals with Canada, Mexico, and Japan, but we cannot confirm this and are doubtful they will be announced during the summit.

Elsewhere, the United Nations is holding a high-level conference this week to discuss the feasibility of a two-state solution with Israel and Palestinians. The event is being co-hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem. The US is boycotting the event and urging other countries not to participate.

In Washington, we are watching to see what President Trump does with TikTok this week as the latest deadline for the company to suspend operations Thursday. We are expecting Trump to again give an extension for the parent company, ByteDance, in the hope that a compromise can be reached.

Kazakhstan will be the scene of an important meeting of Central Asian leaders and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit. The leaders of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan – all mineral-rich and eager to expand trade ties with China – will discuss ways to better coordinate on policy and trade.

Looking at the global markets radar screen, it will be a big week for central banks as the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan each meet to discuss interest rates. With all that is happening in the Middle East with spiking oil prices along with ongoing global trade tensions, we do not envy any of these central banks in deciding which way to go on rates.

Looking at major economic reports being released this week, in the US, it is a shortened week with the Juneteenth holiday on Thursday (markets are closed). But on Tuesday, we will see two May economic activity reports, retail sales and industrial production reports, released. And on Wednesday, housing market data is due for release.

In Asia, Japan’s May trade balance is out on Wednesday, and its May CPI print is out on Friday. And China releases industrial production and retail sales figures. And in Europe, there are a large number of speeches by European Central Bank Board members, plus the Eurogroup meets in Luxembourg on Thursday. The major reports markets include Germany’s ZEW June Survey, along with the business confidence figures. France releases its May retail sales on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Global

· The G7 Leaders’ Summit begins in Alberta, Canada and goes through June 17. In advance of the meeting, the 50th G7 meeting, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is chairing the Summit, announced the priorities for the meeting will include: “1) Protecting our communities and the world—strengthening peace and security, countering foreign interference and transnational crime, and improving joint responses to wildfires. 2) Building energy security and accelerating the digital transition—fortifying critical mineral supply chains and using artificial intelligence and quantum to unleash economic growth, and 3) Securing the partnerships of the future—catalyzing enormous private investment to build stronger infrastructure, create higher-paying jobs, and open dynamic markets where businesses can compete and succeed.

· The US hosts the FIFA World Cup 2025 through July 13. 32 teams will take part in the newly expanded format.

· It is Father’s Day, celebrated globally.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· French President Emmanuel Macron and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen pay a joint visit to Greenland. The point of the meeting is to support the independence of Greenland in the face of President Trump’s efforts to acquire it, which Macron has termed as “preying on” the Danish territory.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agricultural Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw.

· Cities in Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Croatia, and Greece will participate in the Southern European Meeting Against Touristization (SET) 2025. The point of the conference is to find ways to curb mass tourism.

· Zug, Switzerland holds Executive Council by-elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Morocco and France, in addition to eight other countries from the 5+5 Defense Initiative, will conduct the Sea Border 25 joint naval exercise through June 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

· Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 16, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council will is scheduled to hold consultations on Protection of civilians in armed conflict. In the afternoon, the Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on Sudan.

· OPEC releases its monthly oil report.

· The UN Climate Change June Climate Meetings in Bonn, Germany begin and run through June 26.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· A U.S. Federal Judge is scheduled to hear the legal arguments over the White House’s efforts to block Harvard’s ability to have international students.

· The US House of Representatives is out of session this coming week, but the US Senate is in session.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity APR/ BCB Focus Market Readout

· Canada Housing Starts MAY

· USA NY Empire State Manufacturing Index/ NOPA Crush Report

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive in Kazakhstan for meetings in advance of the China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit (which begins the following day). Xi is looking to deepen ties with the mineral-rich country and expand trade overall.

· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will travel to New Delhi, India for meetings with Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

· Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Cyprus through June 16.

· US, Japanese, and Philippine Coast Guard units will be holding drills off the coast of the Philippines.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Bank of Japan meets to discuss monetary policy.

· New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI MAY

· China House Price Index YoY MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ New Yuan Loans MAY/ M2 Money Supply YoY MAY/ Outstanding Loan Growth YoY MAY/ Total Social Financing MAY

· India WPI Food/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing Index YoY MAY

· Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

· Kazakhstan Industrial Production YoY MAY

· Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI MAY/ Services PMI MAY

· Singapore Balance of Trade MAY

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an EU Transport, Telecommunications, and Energy (Energy) meeting Luxembourg. Ministers will be invited to express their opinions on the REPowerEU roadmap, which the Commission made public on 6 May. The roadmap follows up on the March 2022 European Council meeting, when leaders agreed to phase out Europe's dependency on Russian energy imports as soon as possible.

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agriculture Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw, Poland.

· The 55th Paris Air Show begins in Le Bourget Airfield and runs through June 22.

· The International Conference on the Science of Science and Innovation begins in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollone will give the opening at the Osservatorio Banca Impresa 2030 Meeting in Milan, Italy.

· Switzerland Producer & Import Prices YoY MAY/ SECO Economic Forecasts

· Turkey Current Account APR/ Retail Sales YoY APR/ Budget Balance MAY

· Italy Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY

· Euro Area Labour Cost Index YoY Final Q1/ Wage Growth YoY Q1

· Serbia Building Permits APR

· Poland Core Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Belarus Industrial Production YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply YoY MAY

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves MAY/ M3 Money Supply YoY MAY

· Nigeria Food Inflation YoY MAY/ Inflation Rate YoY MAY

Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Global

· A UN Conference – co-chaired by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salme and France’s President Emmanual Macron – on a possible two-state solution with Israel will begin and run through June 20. Entitled “Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution” will involve an estimated 150 countries. However, Israel and the U.S. have elected not to participate. The US has condemned the conference and urged other countries not to participate. President Emmanuel Macron has suggested France could recognize a Palestinian state in Israeli-occupied territories at the conference. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may attend but has not confirmed his attendance yet.

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

· The International Energy Agency (IEA) June 2025 Oil Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Regional Conference on South – South Cooperation in Latin America and the Caribbean is held in Santiago, Chile. The Conference brings together representatives of the region’s countries, the United Nations system, and regional and international organizations.

· Mexico’s Federal Economic Competition Commission (Cofece) – the country’s antitrust body – will deliver a ruling on Google’s alleged monopoly in the digital advertising market.

· Argentina celebrates The Commemoration of General Don Martín Miguel de Güemes, a public holiday. The day commemorates the general who helped win Argentina’s independence from Spain in 1820.

· Virginia holds gubernatorial primaries.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve Board’s Open Markets Committee meets today and tomorrow to discuss interest rates.

· Canada Foreign Securities Purchases APR

· USA Import & Export Prices YoY MAY/ Retail Sales YoY MAY/ Redbook YoY JUN/14/ Capacity Utilization MAY/ Industrial Production YoY MAY/ Manufacturing Production YoY MAY/ Business Inventories MoM APR/ NAHB Housing Market Index JUN/ API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/13/ International Monetary Market (IMM)

· Chile Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit will take place in Astana, Kazakhstan. The Summit brings together the leaders of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

· New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will visit China through June 20.

· Russia and North Korea will resume passenger train connections after a 4-year hiatus.

· The Circular Economy Forum 2025 begins in Manila. The event, sponsored by the Asian Development Bank, runs through Thursday and the primary focus of this year’s conference is how to reduce plastic pollution.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Korea Import & Exports Prices YoY MAY

· New Zealand Import Prices YoY MAY/ Global Dairy Trade Price Index JUN

· Singapore Non-Oil Exports YoY MAY

· Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

· Hong Kong Unemployment Rate MAY

· Philippines Cash Remittances APR

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Environmental Council meets in Luxembourg. EU Environmental Ministers are expected to reach an agreement on the Council's position regarding a new regulation that will replace the current directives on end-of-life vehicles (ELV), as well as those on reusability, recyclability, and recoverability. Ministers will also exchange views on the preparations for the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP30), which will take place in the Brazilian city of Belém in November 2025.

· The SeaEnergy Forum which is focused on offshore renewable energy begins in Paris and runs through June 18.

· Today is Iceland Independence Day, celebrating the country’s freedom from Denmark.

· In England, the Royal Ascot horse races begin. The races were first run in 1711 when Queen Anne arranged them.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Hungary Gross Wage YoY APR

· France IEA Oil Market Report

· Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN

· Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN/ ZEW Current Conditions JUN

· Ireland Balance of Trade APR

· Belarus GDP YoY MAY

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nigeria GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will host Malaysian Trade Minister Tengku Zafrul Aziz for trade talks. Malaysia was hit with a 24 percent “reciprocal” tariffs when President Trump announced the “Liberation Day” tariffs.

· The US Senate Judiciary Committee holds hearing on Joe Biden’s ‘cognitive decline’ and possible cover-up. The Senate is now following the House of Representatives in running a probe into the then-President’s mental state and if a group of aides covered it up.

· Today is Juneteenth National Independence Day, a public holiday in the US.

· Argentinian unions will go on strike in advance of former President Cristina Fernandez’s court appearance which will begin her six-year prison sentence for corruption.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee votes on interest rates. Fed Chair Jay Powell holds a press conference at 2:00 p.m.

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index JUN/13/ MBA Mortgage Refinance Index JUN/13/ MBA Purchase Index JUN/13/ Building Permits Prel MAY/ Housing Starts MAY/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change JUN/13/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate JUN/19/ Net Long-term TIC Flows APR/ Foreign Bond Investment APR/ Overall Net Capital Flows APR

· Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem will give a speech at the St. John’s Board of Trade.

· Chile Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Mexico Aggregate Demand YoY Q1/ Private Spending YoY Q1

· Colombia ISE Economic Activity YoY APR

· Argentina Retail Sales YoY APR/ Leading Indicator MoM MAY

· Brazil Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishida will host German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier for bilateral talks. Steinmeier, who will be in Japan through June 20, will also meet with Japanese Emperor Naruhito and then travel to Osaka to attend Expo 2025.

· China will hold its annual 618 Shopping Festival. It is a major e-commerce shopping campaign here retailers offer significant discounts and promotions and dovetails with the government’s drive to increase consumer spending.

· The inaugural Nikkei Forum Medini, co-organized by Nikkei Inc. and Iskandar Investment, will take place over two days in Medini, Malaysia's southern state of Johor, bringing together global leaders and experts to discuss regional integration, clean energy, finance, technology and innovation. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim will deliver the keynote address on Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Current Account Q1

· Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade MAY/ Machinery Orders YoY APR

· Australia Westpac Leading Index MoM MAY

· Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Lending & Deposit Facility Rate JUN

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Russian President Vladimir Putin will host Indonesian President Subianto Prabowo for meetings through June 20. Prabowo, who is skipping attending the G7 Meetings in Canada despite being personally invited by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, will also attend the 28th International Economic Forum in St. Petersburg which begins today. Putin is expected to give the opening remarks. 137 countries are sending participants to the Summit.

· Guernsey (England) holds elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives the keynote speech at the SRB Legal Conference 2025 "Banking Crises – law, policy and practice: European and global perspectives" in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery will give a speech at the Credit Management Summit 2025 in Milan, Italy.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Prudential Policy David Bailey will give a speech at Risk.net Live Europe Conference in London entitled “Innovation and Growth: The PRA’s Approach to Competitiveness.”

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado will participate on a panel at the SRB Legal Conference 2025 "Banking Crises – law, policy and practice: European and global perspectives" in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane will chair the keynote session at 9th Annual Macroprudential Conference organized by Deutsche Bundesbank, De Nederlandsche Bank, Central Bank of Ireland and Sveriges Riksbank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give dinner remarks at the Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori in Milan, Italy.

· Great Britain Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Retail Price Index YoY MAY

· Slovakia Harmonized Inflation Rate YoY MAY

· Euro Area Current Account APR/ CPI Final MAY/ Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY/ Eurogroup Meeting

· Italy Current Account APR

· Serbia Current Account APR

· Russia Consumer Confidence Q2

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Commonwealth Trade Ministers will meet through June 20 in Windhoek, Namibia. Simultaneously, the inaugural Commonwealth Business Summit will be held.

· Today is Seychelles Constitution Day, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Inflation Rate YoY MAY/ Retail Sales YoY APR

Thursday, June 19, 2025

Global

· Guyana’s President Ali will chair the UN Security Council meeting to discuss policies to alleviate poverty to further global peace and security.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Juneteenth. Financial markets in the US are closed.

· Today is the deadline for ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, to divest the US assets. However, President Trump is expected to authorize and provide an extension.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada CFIB Business Barometer (JUN).

· Argentina Consumer Confidence, Balance of Trade, Unemployment

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand GDP Growth Rate YoY Q1

· Japan Reuters Tankan Index JUN/ Foreign Bond Investment JUN/14/ Stock Investment by Foreigners JUN/14

· Philippines Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

· Australia Employment Change MAY/ Unemployment Rate MAY/ Participation Rate MAY

· South Korea PPI

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The Eurogroup will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers are expected to discuss the International Monetary Fund Article IV review of euro area policies , Budgetary developments in euro area members, Euro area enlargement, specifically Bulgaria, and the Eurogroup President election process.

· The London-based think tank, Chatham House, holds its 10th London Conference. A large number of government and corporate leaders will be in attendance and/or speaking.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give a speech at the 9th Annual Research Conference "Economic and financial integration in a stormy and fragmenting World" organized by National Bank of Ukraine and National Bank of Poland in Kyiv, Ukraine.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at the Room for Discussion event organized by the University of Amsterdam in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos will give a speech on "The challenges of this century, Eurozone economic outlook" at Young Factor conference organized by Osservatorio Permanente Giovani-Editori in Milan, Italy.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch will moderate a policy panel at 9th Annual Macroprudential Conference organized by Deutsche Bundesbank, De Nederlandsche Bank, Central Bank of Ireland and Sveriges Riksbank in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde give a video remark at Financi'Elles event dedicated to 60 years of the law on the financial emancipation of women.

· Bank of England Interest Rate Decision and meeting minutes

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Friday, June 20, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· US Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Index/Business Conditions/CAPEX Index/Employment/New Orders

· Canada New Housing Price Index, Retail Sales, PPI, Raw Materials Prices

· Colombia Imports/Exports/Balance of Trade

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· China FDI (YTD), Central Government Debt, Loan Prime Rate 1Y/5Y

· Japan Inflation, Bank of Japan Policy Meeting Minutes

· India Central Bank Monetary Policy Summary of Rate Decisions, Bank Loan Growth

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Social Policy) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will seek agreement on the quality framework for traineeships, the Equal Treatment Directive, and gender equality in the AI-driven digital age.

· Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will co-host a joint summit of Italy's Mattei Plan — Rome's strategic development initiative for Africa — and the European Union's Global Gateway strategy, the bloc's flagship infrastructure investment framework.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates on a panel discussion at Banco de España's Legal Conference "Central banks and supervisors, emerging challenges and the law" in Madrid, Spain.

· ECB Economic Bulletin, Eurozone Consumer Confidence

· Italy Construction Output

· Germany PPI

· UK Retail Sales, Public Sector Net Borrowing ex-Banks

· France Business Confidence and Consumer Confidence

· Russian Central Bank Summary of Key Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Turkish President Erdogan will host Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan in Ankara. The two leaders are expected to discuss efforts to reach a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Turkey Consumer Confidence

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The West African Economic Summit 2025 begins in Abuja, Nigeria and runs through June 21.

· Today is Martyr’s Day in Eritrea, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, June 21, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) of Foreign Ministers will meet in Istanbul, Turkey through June 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Martyrs’ Day in Togo, a national holiday.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 22, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is the tentative date Telsa will launch their new Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly elections take place. There are 127 seats representing the 14 million residents of Tokyo open for election.

· Today is the 60th anniversary of Japan and South Korea establishing diplomatic ties.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· The US-Africa Business Summit begins in Luanda, Angola. More than 1,500 attendees including a number of African government leaders, are expected to attend the three-day event.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 6/13/25 Francis Kelly 6/13/25

The Global Week Ahead

The G7 Leaders’ Summit Convenes, US and Chinese Trade Negotiations Begin Yet Again, Trump’s Birthday Parade, Pope Leo’s First Address to the US, and China’s Inflation Figures

June 8 - 15, 2025

The big geopolitical event of the week is the G7 Leaders’ Summit being held in Alberta, Canada. This will be President Trump’s first trip to Canada since being re-elected and since he placed tough tariffs on the country.

The overall G7 agenda, as outlined by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, is to focus on several broad themes – “protecting our communities and the world, building energy security and accelerating digital transition, and securing the partnerships of the future.” But the real focus will be trade and how to get to an end-game with the Trump tariff changes as well as discussing the opportunities and threats of AI.

But a lot of other major action will be taking place at the Summit including a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump – the first meeting between the two leaders since their disastrous meeting at the White House on February 28th.

On Monday, US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for talks with Chinese trade negotiators to try to and get trade talks back on track. The meetings are the result of a telephone conversation between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week. There had been a 90-day pause on Trump’s China tariffs but that quickly fell apart after the US added new guidance on preventing Chinese semiconductor chips to be sold in the US.

Elsewhere this week, two big no-confidence votes are being held on Wednesday. The first in Poland on the heels of last week’s presidential elections. The Polish Parliament is likely to hold a no-confidence vote on Prime Minister Donald Tusks government and there is a fairly good chance it will go through, forcing new parliamentary elections.

Meanwhile, Israel’s opposition parties will try to force a no-confidence vote in a bid to force new elections and push Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from office. Current polling suggest Netanyahu would lose if elections were held today as many voters appear unhappy with the ongoing Gaza war. Additionally, two of Netanyahu’s coalition parties – both representing ultra-Orthodox voters – are threatening to withdraw their support unless there is a last-minute agreement giving an exemption to ultra-Orthodox men from military service.

Back in Washington, the US Senate will continue to work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill – as a number of House Republican members who voted for the measure are now publicly expressing regret as the bill is now expected to add as much as $4 trillion to the federal deficit. But the big news was Elon Musk’s extraordinary public spat with President Trump which began when Musk tweeted out his disgust with the size and shape of OBBA and then went on to criticize Trump – and even call for his impeachment – for supporting the bill in its current format. We expect the US Senate to move to change a number of market-sensitive provisions – including Section 899 which would allow Treasury to place retaliatory taxes on foreign companies as well as the state and local (SALT) provisions which the House raised to $40,000 but is facing a host of criticism from Republicans. We continue to hold the view reaching a final deal on OBBA is going to take much longer than the Trump Administration is hoping for – July 4th is the stated goal – and is likely to be scaled back in order to get enough Republican support.

And finally, this week will see two big events in the US this Saturday: President Trump’s birthday parade on Friday in Washington that will simultaneously celebrate the 250th anniversary of the US Army. The parade will take place along Constitution Avenue in Washington. The second big event will be in Chicago where newly elected Pope Leo XIV will address via video to a sold-out (40,000+) Rate Stadium (where the Holy Father’s beloved White Sox play). This will be the Holy Father’s first official address to the United States.

Looking at the global economic radar screen, the big events of the coming week are – aside from the G7 Meeting – China’s trade data and inflation figures and the US’s May CPI print.

The US CPI is out on Wednesday and PPI is out on Friday – both of which will be an important indicator for how the Federal Reserve may move during the FMOC meeting the following week and the overall impact of the Trump tariffs since Liberation Day. Also out in the US this week is the Univeristy of Michigan June consumer sentiment survey on Friday. There are no Fed speeches this week as the Fed has gone into their “Blackout Period” in advance of the FMOC meeting.

In Europe, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be delivering the Spending Review to Parliament on Wednesday, revealing the spending priorities of Prime Minister Starmer’s government. It will include plans for spending more than £600 billion on public services – 1/5 of the total British economy. In the EU this week, there are a large number of European Central Bank speeches including ECB President Christine Lagarde speaking in Beijing.

Bringing it back to Asia, Japan releases the May Economy Watchers Survey on Monday and the PPI on Wednesday. But markets are mostly focused on China’s inflation and trade figure releases on Monday to get a sense how deeply the Trump tariffs have impacted the economy.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, June 8, 2025

Global

· Today is Pentecost, a major feast in the Christian church marking the 50th day of Easter.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Italy is set to hold a Constitutional referendum and run-off elections for regional elective office through Monday. The Constitutional referendum concerns changes to the law on the acquisition of Italian citizenship for foreign residents and repeals some provisions on employment as passed by the 2025 Jobs Act law.

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the 2025 UN Ocean Conference Leaders dinner in Paris, France. She will speak at the conference tomorrow.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Pedro Machado participates in a panel discussion at the 31st Dubrovnik Economic Conference of Hrvatska Narodna Banka in Dubrovnik, Croatia.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Business Confidence (May)/ Tourist Arrivals (May)

· Jordan Unemployment Rate Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Monday, June 9, 2025

Global

· The 2025 UN Ocean Conference begins in Nice, France and runs through June 13. This is the first UN Ocean Conference since the 2022 conference in Lisbon (Portugal). It will also be the first conference since the historic Agreement on Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, also known as the High Seas Treaty.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meet in Vienna, Austria through June 13.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for renewed trade talks with China. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead the Chinese delegation.

· The Trump Administration’s response to a Federal Appeals Court regarding tariff authority is due to be filed.

· President Trump’s travel ban on 12 countries goes into effect. The countries include Afghanistan, Myanmar, Chad, the Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

· Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro will testify before the Federal Supreme Court in a case in which he is accused of plotting a coup in 2022.

Economic Reports/Events –

· The US Federal Reserve goes into its “Blackout” period in advance of the Open Market Committee meetings June 17-18. There are no speeches by any Fed Governors until after the meetings.

· Mexico Balance of Trade (April)

· Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

· USA Balance of Trade (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

· Colombia Balance of Trade (April)

· Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia celebrates the King’s Birthday. Financial markets are closed.

· New Zealand Manufacturing Sales Q1

· Japan Current Account (April)/ GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ Bank Lending (May)/ GDP Capital Expenditure Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ BoJ JGB Purchases/ Eco Watchers Survey Current (May)

· China Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (May)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· Singapore Unemployment Rate Q1/ Balance of Trade (April)

· Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will receive NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in London. Rutte He will also give a speech at Chatham House and visit Sheffield Forgemasters with the Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey.

· Argentine President Javier Milei visits Spain for bilateral talks. Milei then travels on to Israel for meetings.

· Belarus Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov travels to Moscow for meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. They are expected to discuss preparations for the upcoming Eurasian Economic Forum on June 26027 in Minsk.

· London Tech Week begin and runs through June 13. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

· It is Whit Monday in Europe. Financial markets in Germany, Norway, and Switzerland are closed.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson gives a keynote speech on the rule of law at the Italian Court in Rome, Italy.

· Slovakia Balance of Trade (April)

· Euro Area Balance of Trade (April)

· Ireland Balance of Trade (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Tanzania Inflation Rate (May)

Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) followed by consultations.

· Today is the 90th anniversary of the founding of Alcoholics Anonymous.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee holds confirmation hearings for Jacob Helberg for undersecretary of state for economic growth, energy, and the environment; Andrew Puzder for U.S. ambassador to the European Union; Paul Kapur for assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs; and Benjamin Black for CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.

· New Jersey holds its gubernatorial primary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (May)/ Redbook (June/07)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (June/06)

· Brazil Inflation Rate (May)

· El Salvador PPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· China will host the fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha through June 12.

· Pakistan’s finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, will deliver a budget to parliament against the backdrop of the country’s IMF loan program.

· The Bloomberg Invest Conference begins in Hong Kong and goes through June 11.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index/ NAB Business Confidence (May)

· Japan Machine Tool Orders (May)

· Indonesia Motorbike Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· EU President Ursula von der Leyen meets with Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Minister of External Affairs of India in Brussels.

· The Europlace Conference is being held in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch participates on a panel discussion at the Jacques Delors event "Matching savings and investments: The role of banks and capital markets in financing Europe’s future", in Berlin.

· European Central Bank Board Member Sharon Donnery gives a presentation at the 2025 IIF European Chief Risk Officer Forum (virtual).

· European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann speaks at the presentation of the Austrian National Bank’s report on financial stability.

· Bank of England External Member of the Financial Policy Committee Randall Kroszner gives a speech at the ECB Conference on Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy 2025 in Frankfurt, Germany.

· Great Britain Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (May)/ Claimant Count Change (May)

· Romania Balance of Trade (April)

· Switzerland Consumer Confidence (May)

· Euro Area ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts

· Italy Industrial Production (April)

· Slovenia Industrial Production (April)

· Greece Inflation Rate (May)

· Belarus Inflation Rate (May)

· Ukraine Inflation Rate (May)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

· Turkey Treasury Cash Balance (May)

· Slovakia Industrial Production (April)

· Hungary Budget Balance (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Argentine President Javier Milei in Tel Aviv, Israel.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (April)

· Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Manufacturing Production (April)

· Mozambique Inflation Rate (May)

· Kenya Interest Rate Decision

Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on International Residual Mechanism for Criminal Tribunals (IRMCT).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Mexican airline Aero México will likely see flight attendants go on strike for higher wages.

· Bloomberg hosts its Global Credit Forum in Los Angeles, California.

Economic Reports/Events –

· USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (June/06)/ MBA Purchase Index (June/06)/ Inflation Rate (May)/ CPI (May)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (June/06)/ Monthly Budget Statement (May)

· Mexico Industrial Production (April)

· Canada Building Permits (April)

· Colombia Consumer Confidence (May)

· Ecuador Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· The Philippine Congress holds hearing to present Articles of Impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte. The lower house in February impeached Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, on accusations that included budget anomalies, amassing unusual wealth and an alleged threat to the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the first lady, and the House Speaker.

· Malaysia will host the ASEAN Plus Three and East Asia Summits.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Visitor Arrivals (April)

· South Korea Unemployment Rate (May)

· Japan PPI (May)

· Malaysia Industrial Production (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

· India M3 Money Supply (May/30)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (May)

· Indonesia Car Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Polish lawmakers hold vote of confidence called by Prime Minister Donald Tusk after the defeat of a political ally in the June 1 presidential ballot with the election of Karol Nawrocki.

· UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents the Spending Review to Parliament.

· The Ukraine Recovery Conference begins in Berlin and runs through June 12.

· European Council on Foreign Relations chair Carl Bildt, Congressional Leadership Fund former president Dan Conston and Danish climate minister Dan Jørgensen are among the speakers at the two-day Brussels Forum 2025, which will focus on transatlantic political and economic issues

· VivaTEch!, Europe’s largest startup and tech event, begins in Paris and runs through June 14.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde gives a presentation at the People's Bank of China in Beijing, China.

· European Central Bank Board Member Claudia Buch gives a keynote speech followed by fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs European Financials Conference 2025 in Berlin, Germany.

· European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip R. Lane gives a keynote presentation at the 2025 Government Borrowers Forum in Dublin, Ireland.

· European Central Bank Board Member Piero Cipollo gives a video message at the European Payments Council's General Assembly in Brussels, Belgium.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Markets Victoria Saporta gives a speech at the Bank of Finland and SUERF Conference on Monetary Policy Implementation in Helsinki, Finland.

· Bank of England Executive Director for Financial Stability, Strategy, and Risk Nathanaël Benjamin gives a speech at the Global Investment Management Summit in London.

· Hungary Inflation Rate (May)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

· Slovakia Construction Output (April)

· Russia Balance of Trade (April)/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Turkey Auto Production (May)/ Auto Sales (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Israel’s opposition parties will seek to dissolve the Knesset in an effort to bring an early election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition are threatening to leave over policies forcing conscription of ultra-Orthodox young men into the army.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Consumer Confidence (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· South Africa's National Assembly is due to vote on the government's proposed fiscal framework, the first of three pieces of legislation to adopt the country's 2025 budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Ghana GDP Growth Rate Q1

· South Africa SACCI Business Confidence (April)/ SACCI Business Confidence (May)

Thursday, June 12, 2025

Global

· The UN Security Council is scheduled in the morning to hold a briefing on Yemen, followed by consultations. In the afternoon, it is scheduled to hold consultations on the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF).

· World Bank President Ajay Banga will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, appear in front of the House Armed Services Committee for a hearing on the Defense Department’s 2026 budget request.

· Today is Chaco Armistice Day in Paraguay. The public holiday commemorates the end of the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia in the 1930..

Economic Reports/Events –

· Brazil Retail Sales (April)

· USA Initial Jobless Claims (June/07)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/31)/ PPI (May)/ Business Confidence (June)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (June/12)/ WASDE Report/ Fed Balance Sheet (June/11)

· Paraguay Consumer Confidence (May)

· Uruguay Industrial Production (April)

· Argentina Inflation Rate (May)

· Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Taiwan is expected to hold is annual Wanan Civil Defense Drills in the Kinmen Islands.

· In Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Auto Expo begins and runs through Sunday. The event, organized by the mainland's China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, aims to help at drive the global expansion of the Chinese automotive industry, which is currently gripped by a brutal price war between electric vehicle manufacturers.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (May)

· Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Q2/ Foreign Bond Investment (June/07)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (June)

· Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (June)/ RBA Jacobs Speech

· Indonesia Consumer Confidence (May)

· Hong Kong Industrial Production Q1

· India Inflation Rate (May)

· Thailand Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Justice) meets in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss a general approach on a directive to harmonize certain aspects of insolvency law across the EU, protection of adults, and the fight against impunity (dealing with Russia war crimes).

· The International Energy Administration holds a two-day conference on global energy efficiency in Brussels.

· Today is Russia Day in Russia. The national holiday originally celebrated the fall of communism and the collapse of the Soviet Union. But its meaning has now been shifted by President Putin to celebrating the country’s modernization.

Economic Reports/Events –

· European Central Bank Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a keynote speech at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Isabel Schnabel visits and speaks at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium. Later in the day, Schnabel will moderate a panel entitled “Funding the future: Strategies for supporting innovation and growth” at the Annual Joint Conference of the European Commission and the European Central Bank “European financial integration: Advancing the savings and investments union” in Brussels, Belgium.

· European Central Bank Board Member Frank Elderson will give a keynote speech at the IMF-WB annual high-level Conference for Senior Supervisors in Washington, DC.

· Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (May)/ GDP (April)/ Goods Trade Balance (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (May)

· Romania Inflation Rate (May)

· Turkey Industrial Production (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (June/06)

· Ireland Inflation Rate (May)

· Serbia Inflation Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

· Germany Current Account (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel M1 Money Supply (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· South Africa Gold Production (April)/ Mining Production (April)

Friday, June 13, 2025

Global

· Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Canada Capacity Utilization Q1/ Manufacturing Sales (April)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (April)/ Wholesale Sales (April)

· USA Michigan Current Conditions Prel (June)/ Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectation/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (June)

· Colombia Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

· Paraguay Balance of Trade (May)

· Uruguay GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· In Tokyo, Japan, campaigning for Tokyo’s metropolitan assembly elections being held on June 22 begin. The race is seen as a key political test for Prime Minister Ishida in advance of Japan’s upper house elections later this summer.

Economic Reports/Events –

· New Zealand Business NZ PMI (May)

· Philippines Foreign Direct Investment (March)

· Indonesia Retail Sales (April)

· Japan BoJ JGB Purchases/ Industrial Production (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Tertiary Industry Index (April)

· Malaysia Retail Sales (April)

· Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

· Sri Lanka GDP Growth Rate Q1

· India Foreign Exchange Reserves (June)/ Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

· China Vehicle Sales (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· The EU Justice and Home Affairs Council (Home Affairs) will meet in Luxembourg. Ministers will discuss IT infrastructure, the Schengen report, migration issues, and EU internal security.

· The 2025 Paris Air Forum will be held.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Germany Wholesale Prices (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

· Romania Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)

· Hungary Construction Output (April)/ Industrial Production (April)

· France Inflation Rate (May)

· Slovakia Inflation Rate (May)

· Spain Inflation Rate (May)

· Italy Balance of Trade (April)

· Poland Inflation Rate (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account (April)

· Euro Area Industrial Production (April)/ ECB Montagner Speech/ ECB Elderson Speech

· Greece Construction Output Q1

· Ukraine Balance of Trade (April)

· Russia GDP Growth Rate Q1

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Jordan Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Angola Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

Saturday, June 14, 2025

Global

· Today is Eid-e-Chadir, celebrated by Shia Muslims on the 18th day of the Islamic month of Dhul Hijjah, the final month of the lunar based Muslim calendar. The religious holiday is named after the event in which Shia Muslims believe that the cousin of the Prophet Muhammad, Ali ibn Abi Talib, was appointed as a leader and religious authority after the Prophet.

· Pope Leo XIV will speak virtually at a youth event being held at White Sox Stadium in Chicago.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Today is Falkland Islands Liberation Day, celebrating when in 1982 the Island was liberated from Argentinian occupation.

· Today is President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday. The day will be celebrated with a large military parade which will also celebrate the US Army’s 250 anniversary.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Inflation Rate (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 15, 2025

Global

· It is Father’s Day, celebrated globally.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Peru GDP Growth Rate (April)/ Unemployment Rate (May)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

· There will be an informal meeting of EU Agricultural Ministers through June 17 in Warsaw.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Israel Balance of Trade (May)/ GDP Growth Annualized 2nd Est Q1/ Unemployment Rate (May)

· Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (May)/ Wholesale Prices (May)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Nothing significant to report.

Francis Kelly 6/8/25 Francis Kelly 6/8/25

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Bowman Sworn in as Fed Vice Chair, House Financial Services Committee Readies Package of Banking Bills, and the Senate Banking Committee’s Controversial Reconciliation Provisions

June 9 - 13, 2025

The big news of the week is Michelle Bowman was confirmed Wednesday by the U.S. Senate as the new Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision. Bowman, a former community banker, wasted no time, giving her first speech Friday outlining her priorities in a speech entitled “Taking a Fresh Look at Supervision and Regulation.” Bowman made clear in the speech that she is deeply focused on encouraging regulatory tailoring, undertaking a strategic reevaluation of bank capital requirements, reviewing a host of regulations and rules passed in the last administration by her predecessor, and streamlining the review process for bank mergers and de novo applications.

Meanwhile, there has been and will be this coming week a lot of action in Congress. This past Wednesday, the Senate Banking Committee offered up a number of provisions in a bid to help pay for H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill. But what the committee provided – totally a little over $1 billion in possible budget savings – may not pass muster with the Senate Parliamentarian as it appears a number of the provisions do not meet the strict rules for what can be included in a Reconciliation bill.

What Senate Banking offer includes changing the Federal Reserve employees’ pay scale, zeroing out the entire budget of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), dissolving the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) and folding its functions into the SEC, and getting rid of the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research. We will likely know in the coming week what the Parliamentarian decides.

This coming week in the Senate, the Senate Agriculture Committee will finally hold a confirmation hearing for Brian Quintenz to serve as Chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Quintenz was nominated months ago, but for a variety of reasons, his confirmation hearing was held up.

And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner will testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Thursday on their respective departments’ 2026 budget requests.

Also this week, the House Financial Services Committee will hold a markup hearing for eight pieces of legislation, mainly focused on securities regulation. Committee Chair Representative French Hill (R–AR) has been wanting to move on his recently introduced crypto market structure bill, and we believe he will likely seek a mark-up on that bill the week after next.

Finally, we would note that this past Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meeting (we cannot find any notice of the meeting being sent around beforehand). According to the read-out of the meeting,

“Council members heard updates from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on their efforts to enhance their supervisory and regulatory frameworks and to focus bank supervision on material financial risks. Members also discussed their continued collaboration to facilitate support for economic growth by banks and other financial institutions.

Additionally, the Council received a briefing by Treasury staff on the work of the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets. The Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Acting Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also provided updates on their agencies’ recent actions. The speakers discussed ongoing efforts to promote U.S. leadership in digital assets and financial technology and to provide greater regulatory clarity and certainty to digital asset markets.

The Council also received a presentation from FDIC, OCC, and Federal Housing Finance Agency staff on commercial real estate (CRE). The presentation noted stabilization across CRE sectors despite some continued headwinds in the office and multifamily segments. It also described actions taken by supervisors to mitigate CRE risks at their regulated institutions in recent years.

In addition, the Council heard an update by Treasury, SEC, and Office of Financial Research staff on market developments related to corporate credit, including the continued growth of private credit. The presentation noted that corporate fundamentals remain solid, although firms with lower credit ratings, higher leverage, and a greater share of floating-rate liabilities are more exposed to potential challenges. Council members discussed ways in which private credit can promote investment and access to capital, as well as potential vulnerabilities that warrant continued monitoring.”

Finally, we note that the Brookings Institution is holding a day-long conference on the history of bank supervision in the United States - “The History of Bank Supervision in America and the Road Ahead.” There are a number of excellent scholars and former regulators speaking and it should be quite interesting.

Below are the other regulatory events we are watching in the coming week:

U.S. Congressional Hearings

U.S. Senate

Tuesday, June 10, 3:00 p.m. – The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Brian Quintenz to be the next Chair of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.
Wednesday, June 11, 3:30 p.m. – The Senate Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hold a hearing on the Fiscal Year 2026 U.S. Treasury Department Budget Request. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.
Wednesday, June 11, 3:30 p.m. – The Senate Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development will hold a hearing on the Fiscal Year 2026 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Budget Request. HUD Secretary Scott Turner will testify.
Thursday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee will hold a nomination hearing for Ben DeMarzo to be Assistant Secretary for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Craig Trainor to be Assistant Secretary for the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Jovan Jovanovic to be Chairman of the Export-Import Bank, Francis Brooke to be the Assistant Secretary at the Department of the Treasury; and David Peters to be Assistant Secretary, at the Department of Commerce.

House of Representatives

Tuesday, June 10, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will mark-up eight separate pieces of legislation. These include:

H.R. 225, the HUD Transparency Act of 2025
H.R. 2808, the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act
H.R. 2835, the Small Bank Holding Company Relief Act
H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act of 2025
H.R. 3645, the Amendment for Crowdfunding Capital Enhancement and Small-business Support (ACCESS) Act
H.R. 3672, the Securities Research Modification Act
H.R. 3709, the Advancing the Mentor-Protégé Program for Small Financial Institutions Act
H.R. 3716, the Systemic Risk Authority Transparency Act

Thursday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, & International Financial Institutions will hold a hearing entitled “Evaluating the Defense Production Act.”

Thursday, June 12, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Housing and Insurance Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Housing in the Heartland: Addressing Our Rural Housing Needs."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

· There are no speeches or events scheduled at this time as it is within the two-week “Blackout Period” in advance of the Fed’s Open Market Committee meetings on June 17-18.

U.S. Treasury Department

· Wednesday, June 11, 3:30 p.m. – The Senate Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government will hold a hearing on the Fiscal Year 2026 U.S. Treasury Department Budget Request. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will testify.

Department of Commerce

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

· Wednesday, June 11, 3:30 p.m. – The Senate Appropriations Committee’s Subcommittee on Transportation, Housing and Urban Development will hold a hearing on the Fiscal Year 2026 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Budget Request. HUD Secretary Scott Turner will testify.

Small Business Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

· Monday, June 9, 1:00 p.m.—The SEC holds its Crypto Task Force Roundtable entitled “Spring Sprint Toward Crypto Clarity” at the SEC Headquarters. SEC Chair Paul Atkins and the other four SEC Commissioners will attend and speak.

· Wednesday, June 11, 11:00 a.m. – The SEC, in conjunction with the CFTC, the US Secret Service, and the FBI, will hold an event to highlight World Elder Abuse Awareness Day.

· Wednesday, June 11, 1:00 p.m. – The SEC will hold an Open Meeting to consider action relating to the compliance date for the amendments to Form PF that were adopted on February 8, 2024.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

· Thursday, June 12, 11:20 a.m. – CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham will speak on a panel entitled “The Next Frontier: Crypto Derivatives and Onchain Trading” at the State of the Crypto Summit 2025 Conference in New York.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

· Thursday, June 12, 10:00 a.m. – the Farm Credit Administration Board meets to receive the Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and Farm Credit System Condition and Performance and the Semiannual Report on Office of Examination Operations.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

· Thursday, June 12, 6:00 p.m. – World Bank President Ajay Banga will speak at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

North American Securities Administrators Association

· There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

· Wednesday – Friday, June 10 -13 – The American Bankers Association holds its Risk and Compliance Conference in Indianapolis, Indiana.

· Thursday, June 12, 9:00 a.m. – SIFMA hosts the C&L Society Forum in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

· Tuesday, June 10, 9:00 a.m. – 3:00 p.m. – The Brookings Institution will hold a conference entitled “The History of Bank Supervision in America and the Road Ahead.” Former OCC Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu and former Treasury Deputy Secretary Sarah Bloom Raskin will be among the many speakers.

Recommended Reading

The Bonfire of the Banking Regulators? Willem Buiter/Project Syndicate
Buiter, the former chief economist at Citibank and a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, argues Despite numerous reforms, the US financial regulation system remains a patchwork of federal and state agencies with overlapping mandates and conflicting objectives. Two new books underscore the need to streamline bureaucracy, simplify regulations, and separate money creation from financial intermediation.
New Report Highlights Growing Burden of U.S. GSIB Surcharge on American Economy Financial Services Forum The Financial Services Forum today released a research paper analyzing the growing capital surcharges imposed on U.S. global systemically important banks (GSIBs) and the broader implications for the financial system and economy. The key findings of the report include:
- Rising GSIB Surcharges: The analysis shows that capital surcharges for U.S. GSIBs have continued to increase, largely driven by growth in safe assets such as bank reserves and U.S. Treasuries.
- Uneven Global Standards: Unlike their international counterparts, U.S. GSIB scores are not adjusted for overall financial system growth, resulting in disproportionately higher scores and surcharges for U.S. banks.
- Economic Implications: Without reform, GSIB scores and surcharges are expected to continue rising, potentially constraining bank lending and posing broader economic challenges
Overcoming constraints: How banks helped US firms reroute their supply chains VoxEU/Centre for Economic Policy Research
Rising trade tensions and the pandemic have forced importers to reconfigure their supply chains – a complex and costly process. This column highlights the underappreciated role of financial intermediaries in supporting supply chain resilience during global disruptions. Commercial banks – especially those specializing in Asian trade finance – played a crucial role in helping firms manage this transition after the 2018–2019 tariffs. By meeting importers’ increased demand for credit and offering valuable information about potential suppliers, specialized banks helped tariff-hit firms diversify away from China faster and more successfully.

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Francis Kelly 6/6/25 Francis Kelly 6/6/25

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