Recommended Weekend Reads

Drilling Into The Macroeconomics of Tariff Shocks, The Potential of Seabed Mining, Iran’s Rapidly Shrinking Population, and Why Does Switzerland Have More Nuclear Bunkers Than Any Other Country?  

May 30 - June 1, 2025

Below is a collection of studies and articles that we found particularly interesting and likely to have an impact on markets and public policy.  We hope you find them useful and have a great weekend.

More Studies on the Economic Impact of Tariffs

• ·The Macroeconomics of Tariff Shocks    Adrien Auclert/Matthew Rognlie/Ludwig Straub  National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: We study the short-run effects of import tariffs on GDP and the trade balance in an open-economy New Keynesian model with intermediate input trade. We find that temporary tariffs cause a recession whenever the import elasticity is below an openness-weighted average of the export elasticity and the intertemporal substitution elasticity. We argue this condition is likely satisfied in practice because durable goods generate great scope for intertemporal substitution, and because it is easier to lose competitiveness on the global market than to substitute between home and foreign goods. Unilateral tariffs do tend to improve the trade balance, but when other countries retaliate the trade balance worsens and the recession deepens. Considering the recessionary effect of tariffs dramatically brings down the optimal unilateral tariff level derived in standard trade theory.

• Trading Cases: Tariff Scenarios for Taxing Times   Wood Mackenzie

  The Trump administration’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement on 2 April was arguably the most pivotal moment for the world economy since China’s 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization. The White House’s numerous tariff-policy adjustments since early April have made understanding the impact and implications of the levies harder still. The potential for trade deals with major trading partners, further policy changes, and even a full U-turn in the US position add to the uncertainty.  The scale of the tariffs – be they already implemented or merely threatened – has far-reaching implications for the energy and natural resources sectors. The lower economic growth they entail will curb commodity demand, prices, and investment, while higher import prices will raise costs in sectors from battery storage to liquefied natural gas (LNG). Such uncertain times require planning for divergent outcomes. Wood Mackenzie has developed three distinct scenarios that consider the potential impacts on global GDP, industrial production, and supply, demand, and prices out to 2030 in four sectors: oil, gas and LNG, renewable power, and metals and mining.

• A Detailed Look at Trump’s Car Tariffs     Apricitas Economics Substack

  In any other administration, the announcement of 25% tariffs on cars & parts would be the single-largest economic story of the year—they currently hit more than $353B in US imports, having a larger economic effect than all of the tariffs implemented during Trump’s first term combined. These tariffs primarily affect imports from close American allies like the EU, Japan, & South Korea, who supply the majority of foreign-made cars to the United States. Yet the President won’t even spare the highly integrated North American supply chain, as tariffs currently apply to the non-US content in Mexican and Canadian-made vehicles.

• State of U.S. Tariffs s of May 29, 2025    The Budget Lab/Yale University

  This study estimated the effects of all remaining US tariffs and foreign retaliation implemented in 2025 through May 28, assuming all tariffs previously introduced under IEEPA authority are invalidated per the May 28 U.S. Court of International Trade Ruling, which leaves only tariffs introduced under Section 232 authority in place: tariffs on steel and aluminum as well as autos and auto parts. Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 6.9%, the highest since 1969. The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 0.6% in the short-run, the equivalent of an average per household consumer loss of $950 in 2024$. Annual pre-substitution losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $800. The post-substitution price increase settles at the same 0.6%. The 2025 tariffs affect metals inputs and automobile prices primarily. The latter sees a 5% long-run price increase, the equivalent of an extra $2,400 on the cost of an average 2024 new car. US real GDP growth is -0.2pp lower from all 2025 tariffs. All tariffs to date in 2025 raise $686 billion over 2026-35, with $101 billion in negative dynamic revenue effects.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks and Iran’s Disappearing Population

• What Would Russia Like From a New Iran Nuclear Deal?   Carnegie Politika

  U.S. President Donald Trump may have torn up the previous nuclear deal between the United States and Iran during his first term in office, but he now seems serious about signing a new one. Washington has not only held several rounds of talks with the Iranians but also dropped many of its demands.  That confronts Russia—which, united by a shared conflict with the West, has grown closer to Iran—with a dilemma: sabotage the negotiations in order to keep its ally isolated by sanctions, or try to become an important mediator in the agreement, as it was in the previous deal.

• Iran’s Seemingly Unstoppable Birth Slump   Middle East Forum Observer

  Despite exhortations from ruling clerisy to be fruitful, and pro-natal policies intended to prop up birth rates, fertility in Iran is slumping once again.  Earlier this month, the Tehran Times reported that annual births in Iran fell below the million mark. According to the Civil Registration Organization in charge of Iran’s vital statistics, just under 980,000 births were recorded between the Iranian calendar year coinciding with 21 March 2024 through 20 March 2025.  It has been a very long time since, so few babies were born in Iran. By the reckoning of the United Nations Population Division, we have to go back seventy years—to 1955—to find a year when Iranian annual birth totals were lower than today. The current birth level is less than half as high as it was forty years ago, in 1985.

The Changing Commercial and Security Aspects of Our Oceans

• The Potential Impact of Seabed Mining on Critical Mining on Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Geopolitics   Rand

  The potential emergence of a seabed mining industry has important ramifications for the diversification of critical mineral supply chains, revenues for developing nations with substantial terrestrial mining sectors, and global geopolitics. In this report, the authors present the results of a multi-pronged examination of each of these issues, exploring the likelihood and magnitude of their impacts to better inform planning and policymaking.  The authors found that the emergence of a seabed mining industry would introduce a new source of supply for critical minerals that are key elements for energy transition and defense technologies, and this would present several opportunities and challenges for the United States in terms of diversifying critical mineral supply chains away from China, cooperating with allies and partners, working with developing nations, and addressing environmental, regulatory, and security concerns. They offer several recommendations for the U.S. government to address these issues.
  

• The Transarctic Alliance is Key to U.S. National Security    Michael Sfraga/High North News

  Seven Arctic states are NATO allies (Canada, Finland, Denmark— by virtue of Greenland— Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the US— by virtue of Alaska), and Arctic nations make up five of the sixteen founding NATO members.  Despite the current U.S. administration’s skepticism of the Alliance, it is in America’s best interest to reinforce and strengthen this strategic alignment. The Alliance is a bulwark against nations that seek to advance ideologies antithetical to democratic values and institutions, to use tools of national power to dismiss sovereign borders, to destabilize and invade neighboring countries, and to disrupt the international rules-based order.

• The bear beneath the ice: Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic   European Council on Foreign Relations

  Over the past decade, the Arctic has emerged as a strategic priority for Russia, second only to relations with post-Soviet countries, including Ukraine. Russia’s policy agenda in the Arctic is shaped by insecurities over its economic and military position in the region. This agenda forms a “policy iceberg”. The Kremlin’s massive economic investment is the visible tip; its attempts to create a northern sea trade route buoy at the waterline with both visible economic and murkier military aims; while its militarization in the Arctic is submerged from view—and the most threatening to Western interests. On the world stage, Russia’s Arctic policy is fragmented and tactical. It cherry-picks from international law, clumsily balances relations with big powers, and flirts with alternative Arctic institutions.  Europeans need to situate Russia’s growing ambitions in the region within Moscow’s broader strategic aims, especially in Ukraine, and respond by rethinking their Arctic policy through closer international engagement.

 Switzerland’s Nuclear Bunkers

• Why does Switzerland Have More Nuclear Bunkers Than Any Other Country?   The Guardian

  To the alternating fascination, bewilderment, and envy of its European neighbors, Switzerland, with a population of nearly 9 million, has more bunkers per capita than anywhere else in the world – enough to guarantee shelter space to every single resident in the event of a crisis. (Sweden and Finland are a close second, covering all major cities.)  But the question is, why?

The Global Week Ahead

Poland’s Holds Presidential Run-Off Election, Canada’s New Parliament Convenes, President Trump Bashes President Putin and Holds Off On EU Tariffs, and Markets Look Toward FOMC Minutes and Key Inflation Data

May 25 - June 1, 2025

It may be Memorial Day in the US and a Bank Holiday in the UK, but the otherwise shortened week is still going to be a very busy one. 

First, we would point to the upcoming Polish Presidential run-off elections this coming Sunday.  Polls are extremely close, and the two candidates have very different outlooks for the future of Poland.  Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki is facing off against pro-EU Warsaw May Rafal Trzaskowski who won a narrow victory in the first round.  2/5th of voters who voted for other candidates will decide the race which is seen as being important not only for Poland but for the EU.  Nawrocki opposes Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reform agenda, which is strongly pro-EU and if he wins, it could cause the collapse of the Tusk coalition government.

Also this week, the new Canadian Parliament and governing coalition of Prime Minister Mark Carney begins.  The Parliament will convene with a historic – first time in more than 50 years – address by the reigning British Monarch, King Charles.  The King’s message is seen as being aimed as much at President Trump as Canada and will likely be an appeal for unity.

Here in the U.S., Congress is out of session this week for the Memorial Day holiday, but Washington will still be quite busy.  President Trump surprised many with withering criticism on Sunday of Russian President Vladimir Putin for massive new attacks on Ukraine.  Trump called Putin “crazy” and renewed calls for a ceasefire, or he would impose tough new sanctions on Russia. 

Meanwhile on the trade front, President Trump, after a phone call with European Union President Ursula von der Leyden, said he would hold off on new 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9th, citing “a very good conversation.”  

Meanwhile, Japanese negotiators will be meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week to try to hammer out a deal.  Markets were surprised on Friday when President Trump announced his support for Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel – which he previously had opposed.  But no one knows the details of the deal and how it will be structured other than President Trump calling it “a partnership” in a Truth Social posting.

Adding to the U.S.-Japan trade talks was the surprise proposal by SoftBank Founder Masayoshi Son for the creation of a joint U.S.-Japan sovereign wealth fund to make large investments in tech and infrastructure in the U.S.  This may be an early indicator of not only where a trade deal may come out but also go in some way to the structure of the Nippon-U.S. Steel deal.

Asia is going to have a busy week with three big events taking place this week.  First, ASEAN leaders will gather in Malaysia to talk about U.S. tariffs and the future of trade and security in the region.  Second, the Shangri-la Dialogue – a large security conference – is being held in Singapore.  Military leaders and defense ministers – including U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth – will be attend.  Hegseth’s speech will likely be an important marker for the future of U.S. security policy in the region.

The third big event is French President Emmanual Macron’s tour of the region starting with a visit to Vietnam and then on to Indonesia and Singapore.  The visit is seen as both France’s and the EU’s increased engagement and focus on Asia and Asian security.

Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, in the US markets are focused on the PCE print on Friday as an indicator of where inflation is headed and how the Federal Reserve will respond.  Also out this week are trade figures on Friday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report on Tuesday and durable goods orders on Tuesday.  Also out this week is the Fed’s Open Market Meeting minutes.

In Europe, CPI prints are the big news of the week.  Germany, Italy, and Spain all report CPI on Friday.  Consumer confidence indices are out in Germany this week, too.  

Turning to Asia, markets are looking at the Japan’s CPI figures being released this week as well as consumer confidence figures on Thursday.  And China’s industrial profit figures are out this week, as well. 

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week:

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Global

·       The World Health Assembly will convene its 78th session in Geneva, Switzerland, through May 27.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Venezuela, parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled to be held.  However, the elections are widely anticipated to be rigged to keep the regime of President Maduro further entrenched in power.

·       The International Chamber of Commerce arbitration hearing is held today to decide a dispute between ExxonMobil and Chevron over ownership of an enormous oil project in Guyana’s Stakbroek oilfield.  The value of the project is estimated to be as much as $1 trillion.

·       Suriname holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Baccalaureate speech at the Princeton University graduation.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Kuala Lumpur.

·       French President Emmanual Macron begins his Southeast Asia tour, arriving in Vietnam on Sunday evening. Macron is scheduled to meet with Communist Party Chief To Lam and President Luong Cuong and witness a signing ceremony for bilateral agreements. He will then go to Jakarta to meet with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, followed by a trip to Singapore to deliver a keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Friday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, will take part in the 2025 Spring Session of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NPA) in Dayton, United States..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day – a national holiday – marking the day on the Hebrew calendar when the city was unified under Israeli rule after the 1967 War.

·       Iraq's electoral commission will open registration ahead of the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 26, 2025

Global

·       The BRICS 4th Working Group Meeting on new and Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency meets in Tehran, Iran through May 28.

·       Today is an official holiday at the United Nations.  The Headquarters are closed.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Guyana Independence  Day, celebrating when the country declared its independence from Great Britain in 1966.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil FGV Consumer Confidence (May)/ Current Account (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)

·       Canada Manufacturing Sales (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The ASEAN Summit begins in Malaysia and runs through Wednesday.  Southeast Asian leaders will seek to strengthen the bloc's role as a stabilizing force in the region and address the situation in Myanmar. Following this, Malaysia – which is chairing this year’s Summit - will host the inaugural ASEAN-Gulf Cooperation Council-China Summit, where leaders are expected to address growing U.S. tariff pressures, deepening geopolitical rifts and regional crises..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Thailand Import/ Export/ Balance of Trade (April)/ New Car Sales (April)

·       Japan Coincident Index Final (March)/ Leading Economic Index Final (March)

·       Singapore Industrial Production (April)

·       Hong Kong Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Philippines Budget Balance (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Newly elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet with Nordic prime ministers in southwest Finland.

·       Nicușor Dan, Romania’s president-elect, is expected to be sworn in at a ceremony in the nation’s parliament building in Bucharest.

·       The EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meets in Brussels.  The ministers are expected to discuss the US tariff situation.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Development) meets in Brussels.  The meeting is the first the first one for the high representative Kaja Kallas, will dedicate the first session to financing for development.

·       Ministers will meet one month prior to the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4), scheduled for 30 June – 3 July 2025 in Seville, Spain. This conference will focus on new and emerging issues, the pressing need to fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and the ongoing reform of the international financial system.  The Council will also address EU-Africa relations as a follow-up to the 3rd EU-African Union ministerial meeting on May 22.

·       Today is Georgia Independence Day, celebrating when the country broke free from the Soviet Union.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde participates in "Spotlight on Christine Lagarde: Europe's Role in a Fragmented World" event organized by Hertie School/Jacques Delors Centre in Berlin, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Switzerland Non-Farm Payrolls Q1

·       Spain PPI (April)

·       Poland Unemployment Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Slovenia Business Confidence (May)

·       Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif will visit Iran, Turkey, and Azerbaijan through May 29.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Israel Manufacturing Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Composite Economic Index (April)/ Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The African Development Bank’s annual meetings take place in Abidjan, with a new president due to be announced on Thursday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold elections to fill the vacancy in the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

·       in Copenhagen, Denmark, the Sixth Global Climate and SDG Synergies Conference will be co-convened by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) and UNFCCC. Hosted by the Government of Denmark, the conference will continue until 28 May.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       King Charles addresses the state opening of parliament in Ottawa, the first time a ruling monarch has conducted this duty in person in 50 years.

·       Today is Memorial Day in the United States.  Financial markets are closed, and the US Congress is out of session this week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari speaks and participates in a policy panel before the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams participates in moderated discussion panel before the Bank of Japan Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Conference.

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will be interviewed on Bloomberg Television.

·       USA Durable Goods Orders (April)/ S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price (March)/ House Price Index (March)/ CB Consumer Confidence (May)/ Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Money Supply (April)

·       Brazil IPCA mid-month CPI (May)

·       Canada Wholesale Sales (April)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi will be hosting 11 of his counterparts from China-friendly Pacific countries in Xiamen for the third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers' Meeting (as Beijing aims to bolster its relationships with Pacific nations and deepen its influence in the region. This marks the first in-person gathering of its kind in China, following an online meeting and another held in Suva, Fiji.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Consumer Confidence (May)

·       China Industrial Profits (YTD) (April)

·       Taiwan Consumer Confidence (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU General Affairs Council meets in Brussels.  Ministers will discuss the carbon border adjustment mechanism and preparations for the June European Council, and an Article 7 procedure concerning Hungary (the Treaty on European Union’s Article 7 allows the suspension of certain rights from a member state.  The EU Commission has demanded that Hungary withdraw a draft transparency law aimed at limiting foreign funding of NGO’s and media organizations in the country. The EU is now taking up Article 7 against Hungary to try and force the issue).  The Council will also take up Spain’s request to include Catalan, Basque, and Galician in regulation No 1/1958 which governs the EU’s language regime. 

·       Today is the Late May Bank Holiday in the UK.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Union New Car Registrations (April)

·       Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (June)

·       Switzerland Balance of Trade (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (May)/ Unemployment Benefit Claims (April)/ Jobseekers Total (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Hauser Speech/ CBI Distributive Trades (May)

·       Euro Area Economic Sentiment (May)/ Consumer Confidence Final (May)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Industrial Sentiment (May)/ Selling Price Expectations (May)/ Services Sentiment (May)

·       Ireland Average Weekly Earnings Q1

·       Spain Business Confidence (May)

·       Hungary Deposit Interest Rate (May)/ Interest Rate Decision

Middle East

Political/Social Events – 

·       Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will visit Oman through May 28.  It is expected they will discuss the ongoing nuclear talks with the U.S. as well as other regional issues.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Leading Business Cycle Indicator (March)

Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Global

·       The joint OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial monitoring committee meeting takes place in Vienna.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations.

·       The BRIC High Level Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Development meets in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       The BRICS 2nd Rapid Security Channel Meeting takes place at the Central Bank of Brazil in Sao Paolo, Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the end of the wind-down period for Chevron’s and other western oil companies to drill for oil in Venezuela.

·       U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance speaks at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas.

·       EU President António Costa meets with Brazilian President Lula in Brasilia, Brazil.

·       Unions in Colombia are set to go on strike through May 29 over a government sponsored labor referendum.

·       The Caribbean Island of St. Martin celebrates Abolition Day, marking when slavery was abolished in 1848.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve’s FMOC Minutes Released

·       Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in conversation and Q&A at Keio University.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/23)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/23)/ Redbook (May/24)/ Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Dallas Fed Services Index (May)API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/23)

·       Colombia Business Confidence (April)

·       Brazil Net Payrolls (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will launch the Tianwen-2 asteroid sampling mission.

·       Today is the Founding of the Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan Day.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Business Confidence (May)

·       Australia Construction Work Done Q1/ Monthly CPI Indicator (April)

·       New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision/ RBNZ Press Conference

·       Malaysia PPI (April)

·       Taiwan GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/16)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov meets with Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan in Moscow.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyden meets with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Annual Economics Conference 2025 in Vienna, Austria.

·       Germany Import Prices (April)/ Unemployment Rate and Change (May)/ Unemployed Persons (May)

·       France GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Household Consumption (April)/ Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ PPI (April)

·       Turkey Economic Confidence Index (May)

·       Euro Area ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)

·       Switzerland Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Slovenia Retail Sales (April)

·       Ireland Retail Sales (April)

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Russia Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the 600th day since of the Hamas-Israel Conflict after Hamas launched its attack on civilians in Israel on October 7, 2023.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Bank Lending (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The Africa Tax Symposium takes place in Kigali.

·       The Africa Internet Governance Forum will take place in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania through May 31.

·       Today is national Day of Ethiopia, celebrating when the military regime of Megishu Haile Mariam was ended in 1991.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mozambique Interest Rate Decision

Thursday, May 29, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on South Sudan sanctions and on Libya. This will be followed by consultations on 1718 Committee.

·       Today is Ascencion Day in the Christian world, marking 40 days after Easter and the Ascension of Jesus into Heaven.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governors Adriana Kugler gives a speech at the 5th Annual Federal Reserve Board Macro-Finance Workshop (Virtual)

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a fireside chat before the Housing Partnership Network.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the Oakland Rotary Club.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives opening remarks and participates in moderated conversation before the Greater Waco Member Appreciation event.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in a moderated question-and-answer session before the 2025 Mackinac Policy Conference hosted by the Detroit Regional Chamber.

·       Brazil IGP-M Inflation (May)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Canada Average Weekly Earnings (March)/ Current Account Q1

·       USA GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Corporate Profits Q1/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/24)/ PCE Prices Q1/ Real Consumer Spending Q1/ Pending Home Sales (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/23)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/29)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/23)/ Fed Kugler Speech/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/28)

·       Chile Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Mexico Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nikkei will host the 30th Future of Asia forum, its flagship annual conference, in Tokyo over two consecutive days. This year's main theme is "Asia's challenge in a turbulent world." Political leaders set to attend the event include Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, Chief Adviser of Bangladesh Muhammad Yunus, Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith and Palauan President Surangel Whipps Jr.

·       Early voting begins in South Korea in advance of the June 3 snap elections for president. Voters will be choosing a replacement for impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May/24)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/24)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence (May)

·       South Korea Interest Rate Decision

·       Australia Building Capital Expenditure Q1/ Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure Q1/ Private Capital Expenditure Q1

·       Singapore Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Hungary Balance of Trade (April)

·       Slovakia Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Spain Retail Sales (April)

·       Turkey Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade Final (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/23)

·       Italy Business Confidence (May)/ Consumer Confidence (May)/ Industrial Sales (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa PPI (April)/ Interest Rate Decision/ Prime Overdraft Rate

·       Zimbabwe Inflation Rate (May)

·       Egypt M2 Money Supply (April)

Friday, May 30, 2025

Global

·       Today is the International Day of the Potato.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The third round of U.S.-Japan trade talks will commence in Washington, D.C.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in panel before virtual Reagan National Economic Forum.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Council for Economic Education's 2025 National Economics Challenge.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before “The Interview Show with Mark Bazer"

·       Brazil Gross Debt to GDP (April)/ Nominal Budget Balance (April)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Mexico Unemployment Rate (April)/ Fiscal Balance (April)

·       Canada GDP Growth Rate Annualized Q1/ Budget Balance (March)

·       USA Core PCE Price Index (April)/ Personal Income and Spending (April)/ Goods Trade Balance Adv (April)/ PCE Price Index (April)/ Retail Inventories Ex Autos (April)/ Wholesale Inventories (April)/ Chicago PMI (May)/ Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/30)

·       Chile Copper Production (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Colombia Unemployment Rate (April)/ Cement Production (April)

·       Uruguay Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Shangri-la Dialogue, sponsored by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, begins in Singapore.  The conference hosts top military brass from around the world, which will stretch over the weekend, with issues ranging from the Ukraine war to Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip set to be discussed at the conference.  US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth will attend and speak.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (May)/ Building Permits (April)

·       South Korea Industrial Production (April)

·       Japan Unemployment Rate (April)/ Jobs/applications ratio (April)/ Tokyo Core CPI (May)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Construction Orders (April)

·       Philippines Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Australia Building Permits (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Housing Credit (April)/ Private House Approvals (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)

·       Singapore Bank Lending (April)

·       Thailand Industrial Production (April)/ Current Account (April)/ Private Consumption and Investment (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Malaysia M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Sri Lanka Inflation Rate (May)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ PPI (April)

·       India GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Government Budget Value (March)/ Government Budget Value (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/23) 

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain Car Production (April)/ Nationwide Housing Prices (May)

·       Germany Retail Sales (April)/ Baden Wuerttemberg CPI (May)/ Bavaria CPI (May)/ Brandenburg CPI (May)/ Hesse CPI (May)/ North Rhine Westphalia CPI (May)/ Saxony CPI (May)/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Hungary PPI (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (May)

·       Turkey GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Financial Stability Report

·       Euro Area Loans to Companies and Households (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Italy GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)/ PPI (April)

·       Poland Inflation Rate (May)

·       Slovenia Inflation Rate (May)

·       Greece PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Total Credit (April)

·       Ireland Construction Output Q1/ Inflation Rate (May)

·       Serbia Balance of Trade (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Ukraine Current Account (April)

·       Russia M2 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa M3 Money Supply (April)/ Private Sector Credit (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Nigeria Foreign Exchange Reserves (May)

·       Kenya Inflation Rate (May)

Saturday, May 31, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China NBS Manufacturing/ Non-Manufacturing/ General PMI (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Poland Presidential Election - 2nd round

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, June 01, 2025 

Global

·       OPEC+ meeting takes place to review market conditions and oil prices.

·       Today is the first day of summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Mexico holds judicial elections. Voters for the first time will vote to elect all nine members of the Supreme Court, tow magistrates of the Superior Chamber of the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, 15 magistrates of the Regional Chambers of Electoral Tribunal, 5 members of the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal, 464 circuit court magistrates, and 386 district court judges.   The vote comes after a highly controversial law was passed in 2024 by the Mexican parliament to move to judicial elections.  Critics argue the law politicizes the judicial system and opens the door to massive corruption and influence to the drug cartels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the second round of presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is Madaraka Day, celebrating the Republic of Kenya and when it gained self-rule in 1963.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

What Is President Trump’s Golden Dome and Will It Work?  China’s Investments in EU and UK Rebounded in 2024,  Latin America’s Baby Bust is Coming Early, and Understanding the Two Chinas

Summer is just about here and we are hoping you are having a relaxing Memorial Day Weekend.  Below are our latest recommended reads.  We hope you have a wonderful Easter and a relaxing weekend.  And please let us know if you or someone you know wants to be added to our distribution list. 

President Trump’s Golden Dome

• The Golden Dome and the New Missile Age    Center for Strategic and International Studies Podcast

  President Donald Trump has proposed to create a multilayered defense system capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from the other side of the world and even if they are launched from space.  The concept includes both ground and space-based capabilities that would defend the US from attack by detecting and destroying them ahead of launch, intercepting them early in flight, halting them midcourse and stopping them in the last few moments of approaching a target. CSIS’s podcast takes a closer look at the President’s proposal and how it would be implemented, how much it will cost, and how it cannot work unless Canada is a part of it.

• Golden Dome for America: Revolutionizing U.S. Homeland Missile Defense   Lockheed Martin

  Defense contractor Lockheed Martin hopes to be the primary builder of President Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense system.  IN a recent post on their website, they offer an in-depth presentation of the multiple ways the Golden Dome, as they envision it, would be deployed in space, land, sea, and air.

• Bad News for Trump’s Golden Dome: He Can’t Build it without Canada  Politico

  President Donald Trump left out a key detail this week when he outlined his plans for a massive missile and air defense shield over the continent: He can’t build it without Canada. And it’s not clear America’s northern neighbor wants in.

• Can China’s New Stealth Tech Challenge Trump’s Golden Dome?     South Morning Chian Post

  Chinese scientists have unveiled a new material that could undermine the effectiveness of the new US missile defense system – known as the Golden Dome – proposed by President Donald Trump.  The material may be used as a stealth material that is effective against both infrared and microwave detection and could prove suitable for high-speed aircraft and missiles.

Asian-Pacific Economics

• There are Two Chinas, and America Must Understand Both    New York Times

  Two Chinas inhabit the American imagination: One is a technology and manufacturing superpower poised to lead the world. The other is an economy that’s on the verge of collapse.  Each reflects a real aspect of China.  resident Trump, as he tries to negotiate a resolution of a trade war, must reckon with both versions of America’s arch geopolitical rival. The stakes have never been higher to understand China. It’s not enough to fear its successes or take solace in its economic hardships. To know America’s biggest rival requires seeing how the two Chinas are able to coexist.

• A Geo-Economic Conundrum for the Member States of ASEAN    International Institute of Strategic Studies

  When leaders from Southeast Asia meet at a regional summit on 26–27 May in Kuala Lumpur, the sense of imminent crisis will have lifted, given the agreement announced by Beijing and Washington on 12 May to pause for 90 days their ongoing trade dispute. Yet anxiety will still be high. Another 90-day pause – on the ‘reciprocal tariff’ schedule announced by United States President Donald Trump in April – will expire on 8 July. All ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would face significant new tariffs under the schedule, with Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam being the hardest hit. Vietnam, facing a 46% tariff unless it reaches a bilateral deal with the US, might have the most to lose given its increasingly prominent position in supply chains serving the US market.

• Chinese Investment Rebounds Despite Growing Frictions    Mecator Institute for China Studies/Rhodium Group

  Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the EU and UK rebounded last year for the first time since 2016: it reached EUR 10 billion, rising 47 percent from 2023.  Europe remained the leading destination for Chinese investment in high-income economies, drawing 53.2 percent of all Chinese FDI in such markets. In 2024, the EU and UK’s share of total Chinese FDI also rose to 19.1 percent, the first significant increase since 2018.  The growth of Chinese FDI in the EU and UK was driven by a slight recovery in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity and continued appetite for greenfield investment.  Greenfield investment increased for the third consecutive year, rising by 21 percent year-on-year and hitting a record high of EUR 5.9 billion.  2024, five investors—CATL, Tencent, Geely, Envision, and Gotion—accounted for almost half of the Chinese FDI in Europe.

Latin America

• When Recession is Not Mexico’s Biggest Problem     Americas Quarterly

  The “R” word is becoming increasingly popular in Mexico. On the same day that the U.S. reported a surprising quarterly GDP contraction in the first trimester of the year, data released by Mexico’s statistics institute, INEGI, showed an unexpected 0.2% quarterly economic expansion for the same period. Since this initial and seasonally adjusted reading followed a 0.6% decline in economic output in the last quarter of 2024, it appears Mexico barely escaped the curse of a so-called “technical recession” (i.e., two consecutive quarters posting negative changes).  This result, however, is unlikely to settle the issue, particularly in Mexico’s polarized political climate. It can be easily argued, for instance, that the positive reading is explained by an unusually strong 8.1% growth rate posted by the volatile primary sector. This serves as a good reminder that business cycles are a more complex affair than a simple rule of thumb would suggest. More importantly, a discussion about this issue should not be Mexico’s main priority.

• Latin America’s Baby Bust is Arriving Early     Bloomberg

  Data published in the past few weeks confirm the quick decline in the region’s fertility levels, with the number of births in Brazil falling to the lowest in close to 50 years. In Argentina, the number of newborns has almost halved in just a decade, with kindergartens struggling to find pupils. In 2024, Uruguay had more deaths than births for the fourth consecutive year. Even Bolivia, a country of traditionally large families, is about to fall below the 2.1 children-per-woman threshold necessary to keep its population constant.

•  The Spy Factory – Russian Intelligence’s Use of Brazil for Deep Cover Operations    New York Times

  For years, a New York Times investigation found, Russia used Brazil as a launchpad for its most elite intelligence officers, known as illegals. In an audacious and far-reaching operation, the spies shed their Russian pasts. They started businesses, made friends and had love affairs — events that, over many years, became the building blocks of entirely new identities.  Major Russian spy operations have been uncovered in the past, including in the United States in 2010. This was different. The goal was not to spy on Brazil, but to become Brazilian. Once cloaked in credible back stories, they would set off for the United States, Europe or the Middle East and begin working in earnest.  The Russians essentially turned Brazil into an assembly line for deep-cover operatives.

Geoeconomics

• Unconventional Monetary Policies in Small Open Economies   Jesper Lindé/Marcin Kolasa/Stefan Laseen IMF Working Papers

  This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the macroeconomic and fiscal impact of unconventional monetary tools in small open economies. Using a DSGE model, we show that the exchange rate plays a critical role to amplify the favorable impact of unconventional monetary policy while it attenuates the effectiveness of conventional fiscal policy to jointly boost output and inflation. We then use the model as a laboratory to do a case study of the Swedish Riksbank asset purchases and negative policy rates 2015-2019. We find that the Riksbank unconventional policy measures provided meaningful macroeconomic stimulus to economic activity and inflation, with the dual benefit of reducing overall government debt by about 5 percent of GDP. If conventional fiscal policy had been used to provide a commensurate output boost, inflation would have risen notably less, and the fiscal cost would have amounted to a deterioration of the government debt position with nearly 8 percent of GDP.

• What Have We Learned from the U.S. Tariff Increases of 2018-19?     Reserve Bank of St. Louis “On the Economy” Blog

  In the summer of 2018, the normal pace of global trade encountered an important disruption: The United States increased tariffs to a wide set of imported goods from China, which included such diverse products as electronics, furniture, manufacturing equipment and aerospace components. In this way, the imposed tariffs impacted final consumption goods, intermediate inputs and capital goods used by U.S. households and firms.  All told, these measures affected approximately $376 billion of Chinese exports to the U.S., or around 50% of all the country’s imports from China. The scale becomes even more remarkable when one considers that prior to this campaign, most of these goods faced tariffs of just 3% to 4% and that China was the largest trading partner of the U.S. in terms of imports.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Tax and Crypto Bills Moving Again, SEC Speaks 2025 Set to Showcase Atkins Agenda, and the CFTC Empties Out

May 19 - 23, 2025

We thought it would be a quiet(ish) week last week, so we took off for a little R&R.  Boy, were we wrong.  It was a jam-packed week in the Washington regulatory world and this coming week looks to be just as busy in advance of Memorial Day.

Looking at the major events this coming week, we are watching both the start-and-stop-and-start again motion of both the Reconciliation bill in the House of Representatives and the Crypto legislation in the Senate.  Both are – for now – moving forward again.   The Reconciliation bill, which has a number of important tax provisions for the financial sector (including a provision maintaining the tax-exempt status of credit unions as well as the preservation of carried interest and the creation of something called “MAGA Accounts” which allow opening $1,000 tax-advantaged investment accounts for every newborn baby with a Social Security number).   House Speaker Michael Johnson (R-LA) is hoping for a vote by the end of the week before Congress goes out for the Memorial Day recess next week, but it is going to be a very close vote.  And even if it passes, the Senate is likely to make a lot of changes to the bill.

The Senate is set to consider landmark cryptocurrency legislation this week.  A procedural vote is expected by Wednesday, with a likely final vote later in the week.  Senate Democrats, who blocked an earlier version of the bill, seem to be coming around to a new draft that was circulated last week. 

Also on the Hill this week, the House Financial Services Committee is holding a two-day legislative markup extravaganza.  By our count, more than 25 stand-alone pieces of legislation will be marked up and more than 25 amendments will also be debated and voted on.  See below for details of what Chair French Hill (R-AK) has teed up for the committee to consider.

Turning to the regulators, it seems as if the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is, well, emptying out. Rapidly. Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham said last week she is planning on stepping down once Brian Quintenz is confirmed as the new chair (there is no timeframe on when that will happen). Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero also announced she is leaving on May 31, as is Commissioner Summer Mersinger, who is set to become the new CEO of the Blockchain Association.  Her last day at the CFTIC is also May 31.  That means Acting Chair Phan will be the sole member of the Commission until Quintenz is confirmed.  And President Trump has not nominated anyone else to fill the other commission vacancies.

Over the Federal Reserve, Chair Jay Powell announced he is planning on a 10 percent cut to Fed staff, including through voluntary resignations, over the next several years.

There are a lot of Fed speeches this coming week, many taking place at the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s Annual Financial Markets Conference.    For more details on the conference and everything else we are tracking this coming week, here is the full list of what is happening:

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

·       Thursday, May 22, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing entitled Securing America: Key Authorities Under the Defense Production Act.

House of Representatives

·       Tuesday, May 20, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled Day One: Markup of Various Measures - more than 25 pieces of legislation and more than 25 amendments to other pieces of legislation.

·       Tuesday, May 20, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Appropriations Committee.  The topic of the hearing is “Oversight Hearing of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”

·       Wednesday, May 21, 10:00 a.m. – the House Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing entitled Day Two: Markup of Various Measures – seeking to wrap up anything they did not finish yesterday.

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings &Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

·       Sunday – Wednesday, May 18 – 21 – The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds its annual Financial Markets Conference. This year’s theme is “Financial Intermediation in Transition: How Will Policy Adopt?”  A number of Federal Reserve senior staff and industry leaders will be speaking at the conference.

·       Monday, May 19, 7:45 a.m. – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the US economic outlook at the Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary and Capital Markets Conference in New York.

·       Monday, May 19, 7:30 a.m. – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Monday, May 19, 8:45 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.

·       Monday, May 19, 12:30 p.m. Central Time – Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives prepared remarks during “Policy Session 2: The Increasing Role of Nonbank Institutions in the Treasury and Money Markets" at the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Monday, May 19, 12:30 p.m. Central Time – Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari participates in a conversation before the Minnesota Young American Leaders Program (MYALP) at the University of Minnesota.

·       Tuesday, May 20, 8:00 a.m. – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on growth in rural communities before the "Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Tuesday, May 20, 8:00 a.m. Central Time – Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome back remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Tuesday, May 20, 12:00 p.m. Central Time – St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in a moderated conversation before the Economic Club of Minnesota.

·       Tuesday, May 20, 5:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives the commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony (virtually).

·       Wednesday, May 22, 11:00 a.m. Central Time – Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a “Fed Listens" event as part of the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Wednesday, May 22, 1:00 p.m. Central Time – New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before Monetary Policy Implementation Workshop: “Unwinding Large Central Bank Balance Sheets" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       Friday, May 23, 12:00 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech on financial stability at the 7th Annual Women in Macro Conference, cosponsored by New York University's Graduate School of Arts and Science, New York University's Stern School of Business, and the University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute (Virtual).

·       Sunday, May 25, 2:40 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the commencement address at Princeton University.

U.S. Treasury Department

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Commerce

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Department of Housing and Urban Development

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Small Business Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Securities and Exchange Commission

·       Monday, May 19, 8:30 a.m. - The SEC Speaks in 2025 Conference is being held in Washington, D.C.  SEC Chair Paul Atkins will be speaking, as will SEC Commissioners Mark Uyeda, Hester Pierce, and Caroline Crenshaw.

·       Tuesday, May 20, 10:00 a.m. – SEC Chair Paul Atkins will testify before the House Appropriations Committee.  The topic of the hearing is “Oversight Hearing of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”

·       Wednesday, May 22, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

Commodities Futures Trading Commission

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

·       Tuesday, May 20, 2:30 p.m. – The FDIC Board will hold an Open Session to discuss the Deposit Insurance Fund Restoration Plan Semiannual Update and vote on Rescission of the 2024 FDIC Statement of Policy on Bank Merger Transactions and Reinstatement of Prior FDIC Statement of Policy.

Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

FINRA

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

National Credit Union Administration

·       Thursday, May 22, 10:00 a.m. – The NCUA’s Board will meet. The agenda includes a briefing of the Board on the Share Insurance Fund Quarterly Report and a board briefing on the NCUA’s Voluntary Separation Programs (Note: This was on the agenda for the since-canceled April Board meeting; an updated version of the VSP briefing will now occur.  Also note: Currently, the NCUA board consists solely of Chairman Kyle Hauptman. There are no other board members.)

Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Administration

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

International Monetary Fund & World Bank

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

North American Securities Administrators Association

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

·       Monday – Tuesday, May 19 – 20 – The National Association of Insurance and Financial Advisors (NAIFA) holds its Congressional Conference in Washington, D.C.

Think Tanks and Other Events

·       There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Recommended Reading

• Banking Analytics: Understanding the Composition of Bank Loan Portfolios   Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

  In the fourth quarter of 2024, commercial real estate loans represented a quarter of U.S. banks’ loan portfolios. What other types of loans did these institutions hold?

• Banks Thrill to Potential Softening of Post-Crisis Capital Requirements   The Daily Upside*

  The Financial Times, citing multiple sources, reported last week that the US is poised to slash capital requirements imposed on banks in the wake of the 2008 crash. The banking industry, unsurprisingly, was already quite optimistic about a potential change.

• Household Debt and Credit Report ()Q1 2025)   Federal Reserve Bank of New York Center for Microeconomic Data

  Total household debt increased by $167 billion to reach $18.20 trillion in the first quarter, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Credit card balances fell by $29 billion from the previous quarter to stand at $1.18 trillion; auto loan balances declined by $13 billion to $1.64 trillion, marking only the second time balances have fallen from a prior quarter since 2011. Student loan balances grew by $16 billion to reach $1.63 trillion, and the data show a large uptick in the rate at which balances went from current to delinquent, due to the resumption of reporting student loans on credit reports after a nearly five-year pause. Mortgage balances increased by $199 billion to reach $12.80 trillion and HELOC balances rose by $6 billion to $402 billion. Aggregate delinquency rates rose from the previous quarter, with 4.3 percent of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transition into serious delinquency remained stable for auto loans, credit cards, and other debt.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

The Global Week Ahead

Trade Talks and the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers Meeting Dominate the Week, Trump to Speak to Putin Again on Ukraine Ceasefire, and More Trade Negotiations in Washington This Week

May 18 - 25, 2025

Trade will continue to dominate geopolitics this coming week, both in the US and in Europe.  First, markets will watch closely as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer holds a high-stakes summit with EU leaders in London on Monday, focused on improving trade as well as locking in ways to work together on mutual defense development.  Ultimately, the talks are a shift back from Brexit and, if successful, will be the third major trade deal locked in by Starmer in a month (the other two being with India and the US).

In the US, senior trade officials from India and Japan will be meeting with senior Trump trade officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in an effort to reach new trade agreements.  For the Japanese, this coming week is important for another reason:  The US Treasury Department’s Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) is expected to present President Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent with a new review of Nippon Steel’s $15 billion bid for US Steel, a deal blocked by then-President Joe Biden and initially opposed by then-candidate Donald Trump.  However, since then, Trump has said he is open to finding a deal for Nippon Steel to own a large–but–not–controlling stake in US Steel.

Sticking with trade for a moment, the other big talks this week come with the visit of South African President Cyril Ramaphosa for meetings with President Trump.  The primary purpose of the meeting is an attempt to reset the relationship between the two countries, which have soured in recent months.  But both leaders will discuss trade (trade between the US and South Africa came in at $21 billion in 2024).  However, the Trump Administration has vocally condemned South Africa’s land reform policy and efforts to get the International Court of Justice to bring war crime charges against Israel.   Last week, a group of white South Africans were granted refugee status in the US by the Trump Administration. 

We will be watching closely for the read-out of President Trump’s expected telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week.  Trump, who is reportedly getting frustrated with Putin’s lack of seriousness about moving toward a cease-fire in Ukraine, is expected to press the Russian president to move on a deal.  However, Russian officials in Moscow are letting it be known in advance of the call that Putin is going to present a new list of demands to Trump for a cease-fire to be considered – a move that is likely to further frustrate Trump.

Turning to Europe, EU foreign ministers will meet on Tuesday to discuss Israel and Gaza.  Specifically, EU trade ties with Israel are being reviewed as there has been a free trade agreement (FTA) in place for more than 25 years that requires Israel to respect “human rights and democratic principles” – something the Netherlands is asking the EU to review due to ongoing military action in Gaza. 

Also, there was an important election in Europe this weekend: Romania held a run-off election between centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan and right-wing/pro-Russia nationalist George Simion.  Simion spoke of ending support for Ukraine and opposing NATO support for Ukraine and for confronting Russian aggression in general.  As of late Sunday night, it appears Dan has won a surprise victory.

We will be watching elections this coming week in Venezuela and Suriname.  By all appearances, the parliamentary elections being held in Venezuela next Sunday are already rigged to further entrench dictator Nicholas Maduro and his regime in power.  Opposition leader Maria Conrina Machado has called for a boycott by voters.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big event is the G& finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Banff, Canada.  Trade and tariffs are set to be the primary agenda item.  But support for Ukraine will also be up there as a major issue, too.

In terms of major reports this week, markets are anxiously watching for Thursday’s release of global flash PMIs to get a fuller sense of the impact of the Trump tariffs on manufacturing globally.

Also, next week, central banks and central bank governors will be busy.  The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on interest rates on Tuesday.  There are a slew of central bankers giving speeches in the US and elsewhere, and we will be hearing from central bank chiefs at the G7 meetings.  The European Central Bank releases minutes from their April meeting, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank holds their annual financial markets conference Monday through Wednesday, and there will be a number of US regional Fed presidents speaking there, too.

Other major data reports out this week include the UK inflation print, Germany’s Ifo survey, and France’s business confidence index. 

In Asia, China releases its April industrial production and retail sales on Monday, while Japan’s trade balance is out on Wednesday, and the national CPI is out on Friday.

Below are all the other major geopolitical and geoeconomic events we are tracking this coming week: 

Sunday, May 18, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       House Republicans seek to find agreement tonight on the Reconciliation bill in order to bring it to floor for a vote this coming week before the Memorial Day recess week.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23.

·       The IMF Middle East and north Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Q1 GDP.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 19, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors will gather in Banff, Canada, for meetings through Thursday.

·       The 78th World Health Assembly begins in Geneva and runs through May 27.

·       The BRICS Energy Ministerial Meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Trump is expected to have a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin over efforts to end the Ukraine War.  Putin is expected to deliver a new set of demands to Trump as conditions for a ceasefire.

·       South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will visit the United States through May 22 for meetings with President Trump.  Ramaphosa and Trump are seeking to reset the US-South African relationship as well as negotiate a trade deal.

·       US-Japan trade negotiators meet again seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

·       US-Indian trade negotiators meet in Washington seeking to find agreement on a trade deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson speaks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Financial Markets Conference in Fernandina Beach, Florida.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks on the US economic outlook at the Mortgage Bankers Association Secondary and Capital Markets Conference in New York.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan gives prepared remarks during “Policy Session 2: The Increasing Role of Nonbank Institutions in the Treasury and Money Markets" at the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Brazil IBC-BR Economic Activity (March)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Chile Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       USA Fed Bostic Speech/ / CB Leading Index (April)/ Fed Logan Speech/ Fed Kashkari Speech

·       Colombia Balance of Trade (March)/ Imports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       China will conduct live-fire drills off the coast of Hong Kong through May 20.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Composite & Services NZ PCI (April)/ PPI Input & Output Q1

·       China House Price Index (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Thailand GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Japan Tertiary Industry Index (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       UK Prime Minister hosts the UK-EU Summit in London.  Britain is hoping to reset a deal with the EU would boost defense and security cooperation, mutual immigration issues, and food regulation.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)/ Current Account (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Spain Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area CPI Final (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Kuwait Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Global

· The G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors convenes in Banff, Canada.

·        The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on Maintenance of international peace and security: maritime security. The Secretary-General is expected to deliver remarks.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives the commencement address at the Spring 2025 Berkeley Economics Commencement Ceremony (Virtual).

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin speaks on growth in rural communities before the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic gives welcome back remarks before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in a moderated conversation before the Economic Club of Minnesota.

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack give keynotes, and Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic moderates a discussion before the 2025 Financial Markets Conference -"Financial Intermediation In Transition: How Will Policy Adapt?" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

·       Canada Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI Median (April)

·       USA Redbook (May/17)/ / Fed Collins Speech/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/16)

·       Argentina Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Interest Rate Decision

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Computex Taipei, one of the biggest tech events in the world, begins in Taipei.

·       China may conduct military drills around Taiwan surrounding the one-year anniversary of President William Lai coming to office.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Loan Prime Rate 1Y & 5Y (May)

·       Indonesia Current Account Q1/ Loan Growth (April)/ Infrastructure Output (April)

·       Malaysia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision/ RBA Press Conference

·       Taiwan Export Orders (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Hong Kong Unemployment Rate (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/20)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Belgium, EU foreign and defense ministers – the Foreign Affairs Council and Foreign Affairs Council (Defense) – will gather to meet in Brussles to discuss mutual security issues and the status of the Ukraine-Russia peace talks.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Ministers responsible for cohesion policy in Warsaw through May 21.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill gives a speech at the Barclays briefing in London.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Claudia Buch participates in a fireside chat at The Association for Financial Markets in Europe's 5th Annual European Financial Integration Conference in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives a pre-recorded video interview during AsVis Sustainable Development Festival.

·        

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Sharon Donnery participates in a fireside chat at BPFI National Banking Conference in Dublin, Ireland.

·       Germany PPI (April)

·       Hungary Gross Wage (March)

·       Turkey Consumer Confidence (May)/ Central Government Debt (April)

·       Euro Area Current Account (March)/ Construction Output (March)/ Labour Cost Index Flash Q1/ ECB Donnery Speech/ ECB Cipollone Speech/ ECB Buch Speech/ Consumer Confidence Flash (May)

·       Italy Construction Output (March)/ Current Account (March)

·       Great Britain BoE Pill Speech

·       Spain Consumer Confidence (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Qatar will host the fifth Qatar Economic Forum in Doha through May 22.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Interest Rate Decision

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Nigeria Interest Rate Decision

·       South Africa National Budget

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Global

·       G7 Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in Banff, Canada.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations on the Middle East (Syria).

·       The International Energy Agency releases its Global Critical Minerals Outlook report.

·       The BRICS Trade Ministers meeting is held in Brazil.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Treasury Department’s Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS) is expected to issue a new report of their review of Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire U.S. Steel.  The deal, which was blocked by former U.S. President Joe Biden, had been under review after Trump ordered a reexamination. After the committee's recommendation, Trump has 15 days to make a decision on the deal.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin participates in a “Fed Listens" event as part of the “Elevating What Works" 2025 Investing in Rural America Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/16)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/16)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/16)

·       Mexico Retail Sales (March)

·       Canada New Housing Price Index (April)

·       El Salvador Balance of Trade (April)

·       Argentina Economic Activity (March)/ Leading Indicator (April)

·       Costa Rica Balance of Trade (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Credit Card Spending (April)/ Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2025

·       Japan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Australia Westpac Leading Index (April)/ RBA Chart Pack

·       Thailand Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Interest Rate Decision/ Deposit Facility Rate (May)/ Lending Facility Rate (May)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The 60th meeting of the European Economic Area Council will meet in Brussels.

·       The 3rd EU-African Union ministerial meeting begins in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates as a discussant at JEEA-FBBVA Lecture on "Negative interest rates and the impact of monetary policy" in Madrid, Spain.

·       Great Britain Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Price Index (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting/ ECB Financial Stability Review/ ECB Lane Speech

·       Greece Current Account (March)

·       Poland Corporate Sector Wages (April)/ Employment Growth (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia PPI (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Ireland Residential Property Prices (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Expectations (May)

·       Lebanon Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

Thursday, May 22, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an open debate on the Protection of civilians in armed conflict.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump due to hold a gala dinner for the top 220 holders of the Trump meme coin at the Trump National Golf Club just outside Washington in Northern Virginia.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams gives keynote before Monetary Policy Implementation Workshop: “Unwinding Large Central Bank Balance Sheets" hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ PPI (April)/ Raw Materials Prices (April)/ BoC Gravelle Speech

·       Mexico Economic Activity (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Mid-month Inflation Rate (May)

·       USA Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April)/ Initial Jobless Claims (May/17)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/17)/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Existing Home Sales (April)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/16)/ Kansas Fed Manufacturing & Composite Index (May)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/22)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/21)

·       Argentina Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Paraguay PPI (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       New Zealand’s Finance Minister Nicola Willis introduces the government’s new budget.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi will give a speech at a meeting of local business leaders in Miyazaki, Japan.

·       Australia S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Japan Reuters Tankan Index (May)/ Machinery Orders (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (May/17)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May/17)/ Jibun Bank Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ BOJ Noguchi Speech

·       Singapore GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Sri Lanka Interest Rate Decision

·       Malaysia Inflation Rate (April)

·       India HSBC Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Taiwan Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Hong Kong Inflation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia M2 Money Supply (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Internal Market and Industry) meets in Brussels.

·       In Spain, the Parliamentary Intelligence-Security Forum opens in Madrid. The two-day event will be hosted by Spanish Senate president Pedro Rollán Ojeda.

·       In Belgium, the Brussels Economic Forum will be held. Speakers include Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU commissioner for economy and productivity and for implementation and simplification; Renault chief Luca de Meo; and Electrolux chief Yannick Fierling.

·       The 5th Accession Conference in Albania will be held in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank releases minutes from their last rate-setting meeting.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a speech at the 6th International Forum Expansión “The future is decided aquí - Global Challenges for a New Era in Economics, Geopolitics, and Technology” in Madrid, Spain.

·       European Central Bank Board Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives the dinner speech at the Naturalis Biodiversity Center on World Biodiversity Day in Leiden, Netherlands.

·       Bank of England Chief  Economist Huw Pill gives keynote speech at the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF Annual Economics Conference 2025, titled ‘Monetary policy and structural tectonic shifts’, in Vienna.

·       Great Britain Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (April)/ BoE Breeden Speech/ S&P Global Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ CBI Industrial Trends Orders (May)/ BoE Dhingra Speech/ BoE Pill Speech

·       France Business Confidence (May)/ Business Climate Indicator (May)/ HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)

·       Turkey Business Confidence (May)/ Capacity Utilization (May)/ Inflation Report/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       Germany HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ Ifo Business Climate (May)/ Ifo Current Conditions (May)/ Ifo Expectations (May)

·       Euro Area HCOB Manufacturing/ Composite/ Services PMI Flash (May)/ ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts/ ECB Elderson Speech/ ECB Guindos Speech

·       Slovenia Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Ireland Wholesale Prices (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the international Anatolian Phoenix exercise at the 3rd Main Jet Base Command in Konya, Turkey.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, in Agadir, Tan-Tan, Tiznit, Tafraout, Kenitra and Ben Guerir through May 23. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Manufacturing PMI (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Building Permits (March)

·       Egypt Interest Rate Decision/ Overnight Lending Rate

Friday, May 23, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa D. Cook speaks at the Seventh Annual Women in Macro Conference, cosponsored by New York University's Graduate School of Arts and Science, New York University's Stern School of Business, and the University of Chicago's Becker Friedman Institute (Virtual)

·       Chile PPI (April)

·       Mexico Balance of Trade (April)/ Current Account Q1

·       Canada Retail Sales (March)

·       USA New Home Sales (April)/ Fed Cook Speech/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/23)/ Building Permits Final (April)

·       Paraguay Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru Current Account Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Vietnam through May 25.

·       In Malaysia, the ruling People's Justice Party leadership elections are set to conclude, with attention focused on the competitive race for the deputy presidency between the incumbent, Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli, and Nurul Izzah Anwar, the prime minister's daughter. The outcome will shape the party's internal dynamics ahead of Malaysia's next general election, which must be held by February 2028..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea PPI (April)

·       New Zealand Retail Sales Q1

·       Japan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Malaysia Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Index (March)

·       Singapore     Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Industrial Production (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (May/09)/ Deposit Growth (May/09)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/16)

·       China FDI (YTD) (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The EU Competitiveness Council (Research and Space) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane gives a  lecture on "Inflation and disinflation in the euro area" at EMU Lab (European University Institute Florence) in Florence, Italy.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel gives the keynote speech on "Finanzielle Bildung und Geldpolitik" at the Internationaler Demokratiepreis Bonn e.V. (IDP) "Demokratie lebt vom Mitmachen" event in Bonn, Germany.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Great Britain Gfk Consumer Confidence (May)/ Retail Sales (April)

·       Germany GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hungary Unemployment Rate (April)

·       France Consumer Confidence (May)

·       Turkey Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Lane Speech/ Negotiated Wage Growth Q1/ ECB Schnabel Speech

·       Slovenia Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       Poland M3 Money Supply (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nigeria GDP Growth Rate Q1

Saturday, May 24, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Ecuador’s newly re-elected President, Daniel Noboa, will be inaugurated.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese Premier Li Quinag visits Indonesia for bilateral meetings.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 25, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       In Venezuela, parliamentary and regional elections are scheduled to be held.  However, the elections are widely anticipated to be rigged to keep the regime of President Maduro further entrenched in power.

·       Suriname holds parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell gives the Baccalaureate speech at the Princeton University graduation.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       ASEAN Foreign Ministers will meet in Kuala Lumpur.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israel celebrates Jerusalem Day – a national holiday – marking the day on the Hebrew calendar when the city was unified under Israeli rule after the 1967 War.

·       Iraq's electoral commission will open registration ahead of the Nov. 11 parliamentary elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

The Global Week Ahead

President Trump Travels to the Middle East, Does the US and China Have a Trade Deal? Romania holds Contentious Presidential Run-Off Elections, and Markets Wait for Inflation Reports in the US, EU, UK, China, and Japan

May 11 - 18, 2025

It will be a busy week in the Middle East as President Trump prepares to head to Saudi Arabia, followed by the UAE and Qatar.  The President’s visits to the Gulf States are likely going to be good for US investment as the CEOs of Blackrock, Citi, Blackstone, Franklin Templeton, IBM, Qualcomm, and Alphabet (all of whom are speaking at the Saudi-US Investment Forum on May 13). 

Also accompanying the President will be the White House AI and Crypto Czar Davd Sacks as there is going to be significant discussion of cryptocurrencies. Interestingly, Trump is not planning on visiting Israel despite an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump has been seeking $1 trillion in increased Saudi investment in the US as well as another $1 trillion from the UAE.  We expect there will be major announcements of increased Saudi purchases of US defense equipment and a likely bolstering of US-Saudi/US-Gulf State security arrangements, too.

On Monday, we are expecting a joint statement from the US and China on trade talks in Geneva this weekend.  We note that it is not often we see joint statements between the US and China on just about anything so to hear one is coming on something as controversial as trade is highly unusual.  The White House and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the talks, have held close hold on any details of what was discussed or agreed to, as markets are monitoring the situation very closely for a sign of abatement of trade tensions overall.

In Europe this week, elections are the top event markets will be watching.  Romania will be holding a second round of highly contentious presidential elections.  In the first round on May 9th, hard-right nationalist George Simion won, and current polls suggest he will win the run-off.  Other elections this week in Europe include the first round of presidential elections in Poland and Portugal holding parliamentary elections.

Looking at the global financial radar screen this week, markets are eagerly awaiting a number of key inflation reports to gauge the impact of the Trump tariffs. In the US, the core CPI print for April is out on Tuesday, retail sales figures on Thursday, and the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday. Intermixed with this are a number of Federal Reserve Governors speeches, including Fed Chair Jay Powell on Thursday.

In Europe, the EU Q1 GDP estimates and employment figures are out on Thursday, Germany’s April CPI is out on Wednesday, and the May ZEW Survey is out on Thursday, and the UK will be reporting labor figures on Tuesday, March GDP on Thursday.  

Turning to Asia, the Bank of Japan will release its summary of opinions from its April meeting on Friday, and we will see Japan’s Q1 GDP estimates on Saturday. Meanwhile, China will release April inflation numbers on Saturday. 

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US negotiators will continue nuclear talks (which began yesterday) in Muscat, Oman.

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicarmal legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

 Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report. 

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 12, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold consultations on African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)..

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Lula will travel to China through May 13 to discuss trade, particularly agricultural sales to gain market share from the US as a result of China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US.

·       The 15th Annual China Business Conference, hosted by the US Chamber of Commerce, begins in Washington, running until Wednesday.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium, Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.

·       Mexico Industrial Production (March)

·       USA WASDE Report/ Monthly Budget Statement (April)

·       El Salvador PPI (April)

·       Brazil BCB Focus Market Readout

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Philippines holds elections for their House of Representatives and Senate.  More than 18,000 seats are set to be filled.

·       South Korea formally opens its election season, a three-week campaign for the presidency with the vote on June 3.

·       The Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation (Capri) annual forum, this year titled Shaping Landscapes Towards a Sustainable Future for the Asia Pacific, in Taipei, Taiwan.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan Current Account (March)/ Bank Lending (April)/ Eco Watchers Survey Outlook & Current (April)

·       Philippines General Elections

·       India Inflation Rate (April)

·       Kazakhstan PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Eurogroup meets in Brussels to discuss banking union, the European Stability Mechanism, and other issues.

·       EU President Ursula von der Leyen opens the Strategic Dialogue on the European Defense Industry in Brussels.

·       European Council President Antonio Costa will travel to the Western Balkans through May 16 to meet with political leaders and co-host the Sixth European Political Community Summit in Tirana.

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Energy Ministers through May 13 in Brussels.

·       EU Education, Youth, Culture and Sports Council meets through May 13 in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Clare Lombardelli gives a speech at the Bank of England Bank Watchers’ Conference at Kings Business School in London.

·       Romania Balance of Trade (March)

·       Slovakia Construction Output (March)

·       Turkey Retail Sales (March)/ Auto Production (April)/ Auto Sales (April)

·       Serbia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Russia Summary of the Key Rate Discussion

·       Ukraine Inflation Rate (April)

·       Belarus Inflation Rate (April)

·       Euro Area ECOFIN Meeting

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Consumer Confidence (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Angola Wholesale Prices (March)

Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Global

·       The 2025 UN Peacekeeping Ministerial begins in Berlin, Germany. 

·       The Arctic Council Ministerial meeting take place virtually.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in his first foreign visit during his second term through May 16.  Joining Trump will be a number of US CEOs including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser and Palantir’s Alex Karp. Interestingly, Trump is not visiting Israel on this trip.

·       Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to announce his new cabinet (TBC).

·       Colombian President Gustavo Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will lead the Latin American delegation at the fourth meeting of foreign ministers of the China-Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum in Beijing, China.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       USA NFIB Business Optimism Index (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ CPI (April)/ Redbook (May/10)/ Total Household Debt Q1/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/09)

·       Brazil BCB Copom Meeting Minutes

·       Paraguay Balance of Trade (April)

·       Uruguay Industrial Production (March)

·       Ecuador Balance of Trade (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       The Chinese-French Economic and Financial Dialogue takes place in Paris, France.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions

·       Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (May)/ NAB Business Confidence (April)/ Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       Philippines Foreign Direct Investment FEB

·       Malaysia Retail Sales (March)

·       Indonesia Car Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The Council of Europe Committee of Ministers meets in Luxembourg through May 14.  Foreign Ministers for all 46 member states will attend and the primary agenda item is how to bolster support for Ukraine.

·       The EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets in Brussels.

·       The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development holds their annual meeting through May 15 in London.

·       The Copenhagen Democracy Summit 2025 begins at the Royal Danish Playhouse. The two-day gathering brings together leaders from business, politics, media and academia.

·       Eurovision 2025 begins in Basel, Switzerland.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Great Britain BRC Retail Sales Monitor (April)/ Unemployment Rate (March)/ Employment Change (March)/ HMRC Payrolls Change (April)/ Claimant Count Change (April)

·       Ireland Construction PMI (April)

·       Romania Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Current Account (March)

·       Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)

·       Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (May)/ ZEW Current Conditions (May)/ Current Account (March)

·       Russia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The US–Saudi Investment Forum takes place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

·       Morocco will host the 21st annual African Lion military exercises in conjunction with more than 30 other countries, including the United States, through May 23.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Jordan Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       The International Finance Corporation’s Africa CEO Forum starts in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Unemployment Rate Q1/ Unemployed Persons Q1

·       Ghana PPI (April)

·       Angola Inflation Rate (April)

Wednesday, May 14, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on the Middle East, followed by consultations (Yemen).

·       OPEC’s Monthly Report is released.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak that the  Award Ceremony for the Winners of the 2nd Edition of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Rabat, Morocco.

·       Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors (virtual).

·       San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly participates in fireside chat before the California Bankers Association 25th Annual Conference and Directors Forum.

·       USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/09)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/09)/ Fed Daly Speech

·       Canada Building Permits (March)/ New Motor Vehicle Sales (March)

·       Colombia Consumer Confidence (April)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Argentina Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Electronic Retail Card Spending (April)/ Visitor Arrivals (March)

·       Japan PPI (April)

·       Australia Home Loans Q1/ Investment Lending for Homes Q1/ Wage Price Index Q1

·       Indonesia Retail Sales (March)

·       India WPI Food Index/ Fuel/ Inflation/ Manufacturing (April)/ M3 Money Supply (May/02)

·       Kazakhstan Unemployment Rate Q1

·       China New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Thailand Consumer Confidence (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       There will be an informal meeting of NATO Chiefs of Defense in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone chairs a panel on liquidity issues at "ECB Roundtable on Tokenisation: challenges and opportunities in a European context" in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       Sarah Breeden, Bank of England deputy governor, financial stability, gives a keynote speech at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association 39th Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam.

·        

·       Germany Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Industrial Production (March)

·       Hungary Construction Output (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Slovakia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Spain Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Current Account (March)

·       Serbia Current Account (March)

·       Poland Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will host an informal foreign ministers meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Antalya through May 15. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ethiopia Inflation Rate (April)

Thursday, May 15, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a briefing on ICC Libya.

·       The International Energy Agency releases its monthly oil report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on “Framework Review” at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at the  2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, and Richmond.

·       Canada CFIB Business Barometer (May)/ Housing Starts (April)/ Manufacturing Sales (March)/ Wholesale Sales (March)

·       Brazil Retail Sales (March)/ Business Confidence (May)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/10)/ NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May)/ Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May)/ Continuing Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Philly Fed Business Conditions (May)/ Philly Fed CAPEX Index (May)/ PPI (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Capacity Utilization (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Manufacturing Production (April)/ NAHB Housing Market Index (May)/ EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change (May/09)/ NOPA Crush Report/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/15)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/14)

·       Colombia GDP Growth Rate Q1/ ISE Economic Activity (March)

·       Mexico Interest Rate Decision

·       Peru GDP Growth Rate (March)/ Unemployment Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will hold high-level trade talks with his South Korean counterparts in Jeju, South Korea.

·       APEC Trade Ministers meet in Jeju.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand Food Inflation (April)

·       South Korea Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Japan Foreign Bond Investment (May)/ Stock Investment by Foreigners (May)/ Machine Tool Orders (April)

·       Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)/ Employment Change (April)/ Unemployment Rate (April)/ Participation Rate (April)

·       Indonesia Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Kazakhstan GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Philippines Cash Remittances (March)

·       India Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Passenger Vehicles Sales (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Montenegro.

·       The EU Foreign Affairs Council (Trade) meets in Brussels.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives opening remarks, followed by Q&A at the France Payments Forum in Paris, France.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Frank Elderson gives a  video message on "Sustainability risks & financial market stability" at Green Finance Conference "Building bridges for financing a sustainable transition" in Vienna, Austria

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Luis de Guindos gives a keynote address at the 39th Annual General Meeting organized by ISDA in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member  Piero Cipollone participates in a fireside chat with François Villeroy de Galhau at Digital Currency II Conference organized by Banque de France, Toulouse School of Economics, Paris-Pantheon Assas and the ECB in Paris, France.

·       Swati Dhingra, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, speaks at the New Economics Foundation conference, EU macroeconomic policy in an age of shocks, in Brussels.

·       Germany Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Romania GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Great Britain GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Business Investment Q1/ Goods Trade Balance (March)/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Business Investment Q1/ Construction Orders Q1/ Construction Output (March)/ GDP (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Manufacturing Production (March)/ Labour Productivity Q1

·       Switzerland Producer & Import Prices (April)

·       France Inflation Rate (April)/ IEA Oil Market Report

·       Slovakia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Poland GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

·       Slovenia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Euro Area Employment Change Q1/ GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est Q1/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Ireland Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia Building Permits (March)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Ukraine Balance of Trade (March)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The Palestinian territories will observe Nakba Day, commemorating the anniversary of the beginning of the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Inflation Rate (April)/ Wholesale Prices (April)

·       Oman Inflation Rate (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Gold Production (March)/ Mining Production (March)

·       Angola Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M3 Money Supply (April)

·       Egypt Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Nigeria Inflation Rate (April)/ Food Inflation (April)

Friday, May 16, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       BARKING SPEAKS

·       Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (March)

·       USA Building Permits (April)/ Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)/ Michigan Consumer Expectations & Sentiment (May)/ Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/16)/ Net Long-term TIC Flows (March)/ Foreign Bond Investment (March)/ Overall Net Capital Flows (March)

·       Paraguay Consumer Confidence (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

· Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Toyoaki Nakamura gives a speech at the Nishinippon Seikei Konwakai meeting in Fukuoka, Japan.

·       South Korea Import Prices (April)/ Export Prices (April)

·       New Zealand Business NZ PMI (April)/ Business Inflation Expectations Q2

·       Japan GDP Growth Annualized Q1/ GDP Price Index Q1/ Capacity Utilization (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Singapore Non-Oil Exports (April)/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Indonesia Property Price Index Q1

·       Malaysia Current Account Q1/ GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Hong Kong GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       India Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/09)

·       Sri Lanka Manufacturing PMI (April)/ Services PMI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Political Community meets in Tirana, Albania.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Piero Cipollone gives introductory remarks at meeting of the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures in Frankfurt, Germany.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a Policymaker Panel: "Central Bank Communications and Uncertainty" at 2nd Thomas Laubach Research Conference organized by the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C.

·       France Unemployment Rate Q1

·       Switzerland Industrial Production Q1

·       Italy Inflation Rate (April)/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Euro Area Balance of Trade (March)

·       Poland Core Inflation Rate (April)

·       Romania Interest Rate Decision

·       Belarus Industrial Production (April)/ GDP (April)

·       Russia Balance of Trade (March)/ GDP Growth Rate Q1/ Inflation Rate (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel M1 Money Supply (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Saturday, May 17, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events

·       The Eurovision 2025 finals are held tonight.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Poland Presidential Election

·       Romania Presidential Election (2nd Round)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·        Iraq will host the 34th Arab League summit in Baghdad.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel GDP Growth Annualized Q1

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 18, 2025

 Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Poland holds the first round of elections for their presidency.

·       Portugal holds parliamentary elections.

·       Romania holds the 2nd round of elections for its presidency.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       The IMF Middle East and North Africa research conference, co-organized by the IMF and the Onsi Sawiris School of Business at The American University in Cairo, begins.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

The Senate Votes to Overturn Biden-Era banker Merger Rules As the OCC Streamlines Merger Review Process, Stable Coin Legislation Fails in the Senate, and Will Bowman Be Confirmed This Week?

May 12 - 16, 2025

When it comes to bank regulation and streamlining of financial regulation in Washington, it seems its “everything, everywhere, all at once.”  This past week saw the Senate approve a Congressional Review Act resolution overturning a strict Biden-era rule on bank mergers.  This came as the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency announced they were streamlining the process for the review of bank mergers.

This came as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent testified before the House of Representatives this past week, criticizing his predecessors for losing focus on core risks to the industry. 

Back to the Senate for a moment: We note the somewhat chaotic failure of what was considered a likely stablecoin bill as Democrats came out to oppose the legislation over perceived benefits to the Trump family because of their involvement in the crypto industry.  The defeat was a stinging defeat for the crypto industry, but we believe the fight is not over and the Senate is likely going to try again to bring it up for a vote in the near future.

The coming week is going to be just as busy on bank merger policy.  Most notably, we point to a hearing in the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday entitled “Enhancing Competition: Shaping the Future of Bank Mergers and De Novo Formation.”

We are also watching to see if the Senate holds a final confirmation hearing this week (to be scheduled still) for Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman to become the new Vice Chair for Supervision and Jonathan Gould to be the new Comptroller of the Currency (we will keep you updated as soon as we see any definitive scheduling in the Senate).

There are a number of important meetings and speeches to watch at the SEC and from Fed Governors this week, which we detail below.  Here you go!    Please let us know if you have any questions.

U.S. Congressional Hearings 

U.S. Senate

• Thursday, May 14, 10:00 a.m. – The Senate Finance Committee holds a hearing on Trade in Critical Supply Chains.

House of Representatives

• ·Wednesday, May 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Housing & Insurance holds a hearing entitled “Expanding Choice and Increasing Supply: Housing Innovation in America.”

• Wednesday, May 14, 10:00 a.m. – The House Small Business Economic Growth, Tax, and Capital Access Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Investing in America: How Private Equity Empowers Main Street."

• Wednesday, May 14, 2:00 p.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Financial Institutions holds a hearing entitled “Enhancing Competition: Shaping the Future of Bank Mergers and De Novo Formation.”

• Thursday, May 14, 2:30 p.m. – The Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee holds a hearing on "Financing America's Manufacturing and Industrial Boom."

• Thursday, May 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Financial Services Committee’s Task Force on Monetary Policy, Treasury Market Resilience, and Economic Prosperity will hold a hearing entitled “Examining Treasury Market Fragilities and Preventative Solutions.”

• Thursday, May 15, 10:00 a.m. – The House Appropriations Financial Services and General Government Subcommittee holds a hearing on "Oversight Hearing - The U.S. Federal Trade Commission."

Federal Department & Regulatory Agency Meetings & Events

Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Banks

• Monday, May 12, 10:25 a.m. (Dublin, Ireland) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana D. Kugler gives a speech on the economic outlook at the National Association for Business Economics and the Central Bank of Ireland’s International Economic Symposium, Central Bank of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.

• Wednesday, May 14, 5:15 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller will speak that the  Award Ceremony for the Winners of the 2nd Edition of the Bank Al-Maghrib Prize for Economic and Financial Research, Rabat, Morocco.

• Wednesday, May 14, 9:10 a.m. EST – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson gives a speech on the economic outlook at the Annual Conference of Second District Directors and Advisors (virtual).

• Thursday, May 15, 8:40 a.m. – Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell will give a speech on “Framework Review” at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington, D.C.

• Thursday, May 15, 2:05 p.m. – Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael S. Barr will give opening remarks (pre-recorded) at the  2025 Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Small Business Credit Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Boston, and Richmond.

  U.S. Treasury Department

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  Department of Commerce

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  Department of Housing and Urban Development

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  Small Business Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  Securities and Exchange Commission

• Monday, May 12, 1:00 – 5:30 p.m. – The SEC holds a Crypto Task Force Roundtable entitled “Tokenization: Moving Assets Onchain: Where TradFi and DeFi Meet.”

• Thursday, May 15, 11:30 a.m. – SEC Deputy Director of Enforcement Kate Zoladz and several other SEC officials will speak at the Securities Enforcement Forum West 2025 Conference in Los Angeles, California.

• Thursday, May 15, 1:00 p.m. – The 12th Annual Conference eon Financial Market Regulation, co-hosted by the SEC’s Division of Economic and Risk Analysis, Lehigh University’s Center for Financial Services, and the University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business will be held at the SEC Headquarters.

• Thursday, May 15, 2:00 p.m. – The SEC holds a Closed Meeting.

  Commodities Futures Trading Commission

• Wednesday, May 14, 3:30 a.m. EST/9:30 a.m. Amsterdam time – CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero will speak on a panel titled “Economic and Market Outlook” at the International Swaps and Derivatives Association’s Annual General Meeting in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

  Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  FINRA

• May 13 – 15 – FINRA holds its Annual Conference in Washington, D.C.

• National Credit Union Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  Federal Trade Commission & Department of Justice Antitrust Division

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  Farm Credit Administration

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  Farm Credit Insurance Corporation

• Wednesday, May 8, 10:00 a.m. – The Farm Credit Administration Board of Directors will meet to hear a report on Farm Credit System Funding Conditions.

  International Monetary Fund & World Bank

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

  North American Securities Administrators Association

• There are no significant events scheduled at this time.

Trade Associations & Think Tank Events

Trade Associations

• ·Monday – Wednesday, May 12 – 14 – SIFMA holds its Anti-Money Laundering & Financial Crimes Conference in Washington, D.C.

• May 13 – 14 – The American Bankers Association holds its American Mortgage Conference in Charleston, South Carolina.

• Wednesday, May 14 – The Institute for International Bankers holds its 2025 Information Security and Operational Reliance Conference in New York.

Think Tanks and Other Events

• ·Monday, May 12, 2:00 p.m. – The Federalist Society holds a virtual fireside chat with Elizabeth Odette, the National Association of Attorney Generals Task Force Chair and Minnesota Assistant Attorney General on the States and Antitrust Policy.

• Tuesday, May 13, 11:30 a.m. – The Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies holds a virtual discussion on "A Conversation with FTC (Federal Trade Commission) Bureau Directors."

• Wednesday, May 14, Noon – The Exchequer Club hosts SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda.

Recommended Reading

• Wall Street Journal: Fannie and Freddie May Foment Another Crisis

  Hoover Institution Fellows John Cochrane and Stanford Professor Amit Suru point out in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal that the two government-sponsored enterprises which failed in the 2008-2009 financial crisis are now bigger and riskier than ever.  Combined Freddie and Fannie back more than 60% of new mortgages, versus roughly 44% before the 2008 meltdown.  They argue there needs to be more market competition and less reliance on government run entities like these two giants.

Please let us know if you have any questions or would like to be added to our email distribution list.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Fight Over Seabed Mining for Critical Minerals, China’s Vanishing Economic Numbers, What Happens When US Social Security Funds Run Out?  And The Remote Work Paradox

May 9 - 11, 2025

The Growing Fight Over Seabed Mining for Critical Minerals

• The Potential Impact of Seabed Mining on Critical Mineral Supply Chains and Global Geopolitics   Rand Corporation

  Seabed mining presents an opportunity for the United States and its allies to diversify critical mineral supply chains, bolstering critical mineral supply reliability and security; however, the U.S. government has yet to develop a clear vision for a potential role of the United States and its allies in an emerging seabed mining industry. The establishment of a seabed mining industry would have geopolitical implications, including shifts among relationships within the Indo-Pacific region, concerns related to regulatory monitoring and enforcement, new territorial disputes, increasing demand for maritime domain awareness and security, and new influences on commodity prices and security of supply.

• What to Know About the Signed U.S.–Ukraine Minerals Deal   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  On Wednesday, April 30, 2025, the United States and Ukraine signed a long-awaited deal to establish a joint investment fund for the reconstruction of Ukraine. The fund will be capitalized, in part, by revenues from future natural resource extraction. The newly signed agreement is a positive step in U.S.-Ukraine relations following contentious meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. While more favorable to Ukraine than earlier iterations, the deal’s effectiveness hinges on long-term peace and stable investment conditions. Key barriers include outdated geological surveys, degraded energy infrastructure, and unresolved security risks. The agreement reflects the Trump administration’s transactional approach to mineral diplomacy and may serve as a template for similar deals, such as the emerging U.S.–Democratic Republic of the Congo cooperation framework.

• Strategic Snapshot: Global Competition in Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Elements   Jamestown Foundation

  On May 1, Ukraine and the United States signed a long-anticipated minerals deal providing the United States with preferential rights to mineral extraction in Ukraine. The agreement creates a U.S.-controlled, jointly-managed investment fund that will receive revenues from new projects in critical minerals, oil, and natural gas.  The agreement comes as the global critical minerals market remains highly competitive, with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia currently leading in mineral processing infrastructure and capabilities. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2030, nearly 50 percent of the market value from critical minerals refining will be concentrated in the PRC. IEA further assesses that by 2030, over 90 percent of battery-grade graphite and 77 percent of refined rare earths will originate from the PRC. In 2022, Russia was the source of 40 percent of global uranium enrichment. In 2024, approximately 35 percent of U.S. uranium imports (used for nuclear fuel) came from Russia.

• How to Advance U.S.-Africa Critical Minerals Partnerships in Mining and Geological Sciences    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

  Critical minerals, such as nickel, graphite, manganese, cobalt, copper, and lithium, currently occupy a central role in global economic and geopolitical competition. Mineral-rich African countries arise as natural potential partners.  For the United States, both increasing the total volume of mineral supply and diversifying the sources of those minerals is imperative for economic and national security. Escalating export restrictions, including recently on gallium, germanium, and antimony, by China, which dominates the global supply of these commodities, only reinforce this imperative.  Correspondingly, the United States has framed the importance of augmenting its critical mineral supplies in terms of economic and security.  Much of the recent focus is aimed at increasing the U.S. domestic supply of these minerals, particularly through permitting reform, support for expanding domestic production, and developing refining and processing facilities. However, there is also a clear signal of interest in complementary international engagements to achieve mineral supply and energy security. These engagements flow in both directions. That is, the U.S. government views international partners not only as potential sources of mineral inputs but also as potential recipients of U.S. energy and related industries.

China

• How Bad Is China’s Economy? The Data Needed to Answer Is Vanishing   Wall Street Journal

  Not long ago, anyone could comb through a wide range of official data from China. Then it started to disappear.  Land sales measures, foreign investment data, and unemployment indicators have gone dark in recent years. Data on cremations and a business confidence index have been cut off. Even official soy sauce production reports are gone.  In all, Chinese officials have stopped publishing hundreds of data points once used by researchers and investors, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. In most cases, Chinese authorities haven’t given any reason for ending or withholding data. But the missing numbers have come as the world’s second biggest economy has stumbled under the weight of excessive debt, a crumbling real-estate market, and other troubles, spurring heavy-handed efforts by authorities to control the narrative.

• Was Made in China 2025 Successful?     Camille Boullenois, Malcolm Black, and Daniel Rosen/Rhodium Group

  Chinese companies have made significant strides in closing the gap with foreign firms and advancing toward the technological frontier, with several sectors already demonstrating signs of parity or even leadership. China’s share of global patents has risen across most industries, with notable gains in electric vehicles, new materials, electronics, and robotics, where its share grew by more than 4 percentage points. In basic research, China’s output is equally remarkable, with its share of global top publications increasing by an average of 18 percentage points between 2015 and 2023. Despite this rapid progress, Chinese firms have yet to achieve parity in many MIC25 sectors, with 62% of foreign firms surveyed predicting that their Chinese competitors would catch up within 5 to 10 years. Key gaps remain in areas such as advanced semiconductors, where Chinese firms still lag significantly behind the global frontier.

• At the Doorstep: A Snapshot of New Activity at Cuban Spy Sites  Center for Strategic and International Studies

  In a new report from CSIS, commercially available satellite imagery shows new activity underway at a signals intelligence hub near Havana, Cuba.   The facilities – being built by China – include the construction of a large circularly disposed antenna array (CDAA) which can pinpoint the origin of incoming radio signals from as far as 8,000 miles away. This gives China significantly enhanced capacity to monitor and spy on air and maritime activity in and around the entire United States.

Geoeconomics

• Putting US Fiscal Policy on a Sustainable Patch   Karen Dynan & Douglas Elmendorf/National Bureau of Economic Research

  Abstract: Even allowing for substantial uncertainty regarding projections, current US fiscal policies are almost certainly unsustainable. Therefore, policymakers must decide when and in what ways to change policies. Changing policies sooner rather than later would put debt on a lower trajectory and thereby increase national savings and provide insurance against adverse developments by expanding fiscal space, protecting against a persistent shortfall in economic growth, and reducing the chance of a fiscal crisis. Yet, the probability of a near-term fiscal crisis is difficult to assess:  Yields on Treasury debt are within their range of the past few decades, which suggests that investors are not that worried about the fiscal outlook—but debt and deficits are at nearly unprecedented levels, and experience shows that investors’ confidence in a government’s fiscal management can deteriorate quickly.

• What Happens If Social Security Runs Out in 2035?   Tax Foundation Podcast

  What happens when the country’s most important retirement program runs out of money?  Social Security faces a funding crisis by 2035. We unpack how the system works, why it’s in trouble, and what fixes could keep it afloat.  Podcast host Kyle Hulehan and Tax Foundation Vice President of Federal Tax Policy Erica York are joined by Alex Durante, Senior Economist at the Tax Foundation. Together, they break down the trade-offs behind today’s biggest Social Security reform ideas.

• How Does the Federal Reserve Affect the Treasury Market?   Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity

  At around $900 billion in transactions daily, the market for U.S. Treasuries is massive, not only in terms of quantity but also in terms of importance to the U.S. and global economies. The Treasury market is tied to interest rates, the value of the dollar, and financial markets around the world. So when shocks hit the Treasury market, as they did during the COVID-19 crisis, the ripple effects can be global. In a new paper, “Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bank,” Anil K Kashyap, Jeremy C. Stein, Jonathan L. Wallen, and Joshua Younger explore how the Federal Reserve reacted to the 2020 Treasury disturbance and present a proposal for future action. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Senior Fellow David Wessel is joined by Kashyap to discuss the findings as well as the relevance to recent Treasury market volatility. 

• The Remote Work Paradox: Higher Engagement, Lower Wellbeing    Gallup

  Globally, fully remote workers are the most likely to be engaged at work (31%), compared with hybrid (23%), on-site non-remote-capable (23%) and on-site remote-capable (19%). That’s according to the latest State of the Global Workplace report, which tracks how employees worldwide are doing in their work and lives.  However, they are less likely to be thriving in their lives overall (36%) than hybrid workers (42%) and on-site remote-capable workers (42%). Still, fully remote workers are more likely to be thriving than their fully on-site non-remote-capable counterparts (30%).  Fully remote employees are also more likely to report experiencing anger, sadness and loneliness than hybrid and on-site workers. They are more likely to report experiencing a lot of stress the previous day (45%) than on-site workers (39% for remote-capable, 38% for non-remote-capable), while having about the same stress level as hybrid workers (46%). These differences hold true even when accounting for income.

The Global Week Ahead

Canadian PM Carney Meets with President Trump, Russia Celebrates Victory Day, While Chinese President Xi Meets with Russian President Putin, and the Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decide Interest Rates

This week marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe – V.E. Day. Great Britain, Russia, and other European nations will host parades and festivities to mark the historic occasion. Russia is offering Ukraine a short-term cease-fire on Friday to allow Russia to celebrate what it calls Victory Day. 

As part of the Victory Day celebration in Moscow, a number of leaders will attend in person, including Chinese President Xi Jinping.  Xi arrives on May for one-on-one meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a number of critical issues, including President Trump's tariffs, the war in Ukraine a, furthering China's support for Russia, and US efforts to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program. 

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will also meet with Putin on the sidelines of the celebrations. Brazil is chairing the BRICS this year and will discuss ways to strengthen the bloc in the face of Trump's riffs.

It will be a busy week in Europe.  At the Vatican, the Conclave of Cardinals begins to elect a new pope. 135 cardinals will gather in a closed meeting until they elect the successor to the late Pope Francis. As the Conclave begins, EU foreign ministers will be meeting in Warsaw to discuss how to strengthen European mutual security to counter Russia, as well as how to deal with the US tariffs on the EU.  And Friedrich Mertz is expected to be elected by the German Bundestag (Parliament) this week as the country's new Chancellor.

In Asia, we are watching the continued (and growing) tensions between Pakistan and India as a result of last month's attack in Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. India blames Pakistan for supporting the terrorists responsible for the attack and is threatening to attack Pakistan in response. While the US and EU work with both India and Pakistan to find a peaceful solution, we note that Iran is also trying to play a role. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to both countries this week to mediate. 

In Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, coming off a winning election last week, will meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs placed on Canada. We believe Trump is leaning toward lifting or at least temporarily suspending some of the tariffs. 

Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives coming to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and other senior Trump Administration officials seeking deals to get out from under Trump's tariffs.  Last week, meetings between Japanese and South Korean officials were held, but no deals were reached, and from what we have heard from numerous sources, the talks did not go well.

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the US Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions will dominate the market's attention. The Fed—despite President Trump's demands for rate cuts—is expected to hold rates steady, while the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 24 basis points. 

Several other central bank and monetary policy-focused meetings will also be important to watch this week.  The European Central Bank is holding an off-site in Portugal, where we expect commentary on the impact of tariffs on the state of the European and global economy.  In Iceland, the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 on Friday and Saturday will host a slew of central bankers who will be giving major speeches and talking on panels, while at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference will also see a number of central bankers from various countries speaking.

 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday on the state of the international financial system.  It will certainly be a lively hearing as Bessent will face intense questions about the impact of the Trump tariffs on global markets in general and the US economy in particular. 

In the midst of all this, US March trade data will be out on Tuesday, Q1 data on Thursday, and productivity and labor data on Monday, while the April ISM services report will be out on Monday.  

In Europe, Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and trade balance figures on Thursday, while France reports its trade balance on Wednesday and industrial production on Tuesday. The Eurozone's April CPI is out on Thursday.

In Asia, China reports April trade figures on Friday, while the Bank of Japan releases its March monetary policy minutes on Thursday.  

Below are all the other major political and economic events we are watching in the coming week:

Sunday, May 4, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The Milken Institute Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California and runs through May 8..

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Japan's parliamentary vice-minister for foreign affairs, Matsumoto Hisashi, will visit Algeria and Tunisia through May 6. 

·       China will hold its Golden Week holiday through May 5, and Japan will celebrate through May 6.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Romania holds presidential elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·        Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon holds the first phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Monday, May 5, 2025

Global

·       OPEC+ Ministerial meetings take place in Vienna, Austria.

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to have consultations on 1559 report (peace keeping in Lebanon).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) leaders to discuss tariffs.

·       The Milken Global Conference begins in Beverly Hills, California.  US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak at the conference.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation (April)/ BCB Focus Market Readout

·       Canada S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (May)

·       USA S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ISM Services PMI (April)/ ISM Services Business Activity (April)/ ISM Services Employment (April)/ ISM Services New Orders (April)/ ISM Services Prices (April)

·       Uruguay Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Argentina Tax Revenue (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Kazakhstan through May 7.

·       South Korea celebrates the Birth of Buddha.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Australia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)/ ANZ-Indeed Job Ads (April)/ TD-MI Inflation Gauge (April)

·       Vietnam S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Indonesia GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Singapore Retail Sales (March)

·       Pakistan Interest Rate Decision

·       India Government Budget Value (March)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Milan will host of the 58th annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank’s Board of Governors.

·       In Great Britain, Members of the armed forces will march from Parliament Square, kicking off a week of 80th VE Day anniversary events, including a recitation of Winston Churchill’s victory speech as Big Ben strikes midday, and a military fly-past over central London.

·       In France, rail passengers are set to be hit by industrial action over the early May public holiday. The CGT-Cheminots, SNCF’s largest union, has called for an indefinite strike starting today, pushing for better pay for drivers.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       In the UK, today is an Early May bank holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Ireland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Romania Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Russia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Hungary HALPIM Manufacturing PMI (April)

·       Spain Tourist Arrivals (March)/ New Car Sales (April)

·       Turkey Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

·       Slovenia Balance of Trade (March)

·       Serbia PPI (April)

·       France New Car Registrations (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Riyad Bank PMI (April)

·       United Arab Emirates S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Jordan PPI (March)

·       Kuwait M2 Money Supply (March)/ Private Bank Lending (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Ghana Inflation Rate (April)

·       Egypt Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ M2 Money Supply (March)

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold a debate on Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney will travel to Washington to meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs.

·       The US Senate Banking Committee will vote on the nominations of  Michelle Bowman to be the Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman for Supervision.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Mexico Gross Fixed Investment (February)

·       Canada Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Ivey PMI s.a (April)

·       USA Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Redbook (May/03)/ RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (May)/ API Crude Oil Stock Change (May/02)/ LMI Logistics Managers Index (April)

·       Brazil S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Colombia PPI (April)/ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Malaysia hosts the 46th ASEAN summit.

·       South Korea celebrates Children’s Day.  Financial markets are closed.

·       Japan celebrates Greenery Day, a public holiday.  Financial markets are closed.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Singapore S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Philippines Inflation Rate (April)

·       Australia Building Permits (March)/ Private House Approvals (March)

·       China Caixin Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Vietnam Balance of Trade (April)/ Foreign Direct Investment (April)/ Industrial Production (April)/ Inflation Rate (April)/ Retail Sales (April)/ Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       India HSBC Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Thailand Business Confidence (April)

·       Taiwan Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Global Dairy Trade Price Index (May/13)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       In Germany, Friedrich Merz will be voted in as the new Chancellor.

·       The European Commission is expected to release plans for ending reliance on Russian oil and gas imports.

·       The Defense 24 Days security conference begins in Warsaw, Poland.

·       The Athens International Defense and Security Expo begins in Athens, Greece.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       The European Central Bank begins its two-day Governing Council of the ECB: annual retreat hosted by Banco de Portugal.

·       Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden will be a panelist at the Global Finance and Technology Networks’ 4th Point Zero Forum.

·       Ireland AIB Services PMI (April)

·       Switzerland Unemployment Rate (April)

·       Romania PPI (March)

·       France Industrial Production (March)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Spain Unemployment Change (April)/ HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Italy HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Germany HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Composite & Services PMI (April)/ PPI (March)

·       Great Britain New Car Sales (April)/ S&P Global Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Ukraine Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Turkey will conduct the Denizkurdu-II-2025, or Sea Wolf-II-2025, naval exercise in the Black, Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas through May 17.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt S&P Global PMI (April)

·       South Africa S&P Global PMI (April)

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The RealID requirements enter into force in the US for all air travel

Economic Reports/Events –

·       US Federal Reserve Board Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference/USA MBA Mortgage Market Index (May/02)/ MBA Purchase Index (May/02)/ EIA Crude Oil & Gasoline Stocks Change (May/02)/ Consumer Credit Change (March)/ Used Car Prices (April)

·       Brazil Industrial Production (March)/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Chile Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Ecuador Inflation Rate (April)

·       Colombia Exports (March)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Moscow for meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and to participate in the Victory Day celebrations.

·       ASEAN+3 Finance Ministers meet in Milan, Italy.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       New Zealand Employment Change Q1/ Unemployment Rate Q1/ Labour Costs Index Q1/ Participation Rate Q1

·       Australia Ai Group Industry Index (April)/ Ai Group Construction Index (April)/ Ai Group Manufacturing Index (April)

·       Hong Kong S&P Global PMI (April)

·       Japan Jibun Bank Composite & Services PMI Final (April)

·       Philippines Unemployment Rate (March)/ Industrial Production (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Thailand Inflation Rate (April)

·       Taiwan Inflation Rate (April)

·       Singapore Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       China Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       At the Vatican, the conclave to elect the next pope beings.

·       Germany's incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz will meet French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France, marking his first foreign trip in office.  Later in the day, he will then travel to Poland to meet with Prime Minister Donald Tusk

·       There will be an informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers in Warsaw, Poland, through May 8.

·       In Denmark, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial, co-hosted by Danish climate, energy and utilities minister Lars Aagaard, COP30 president-designate ambassador André Corrêa do Lago and outgoing COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. Discussions at the two-day meeting will revolve around implementation of last year’s COP29 plans and the key expectations for this year’s COP30

·       Today is the 25th anniversary of Valdimire Putin first being elected.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Germany Factory Orders (March)/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Russia S&P Global Composite & Services PMI (April)

·       Hungary Retail Sales (March)

·       France Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Current Account (March)/ Private Non-Farm Payrolls Q1/ HCOB Construction PMI (April)

·       Slovakia Retail Sales (March)

·       Switzerland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Euro Area HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Italy HCOB Construction PMI (April)/ Retail Sales (March)

·       Great Britain S&P Global Construction PMI (April)

·       Poland Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Interest Rate Decision (May)

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi travels to New Delhi, India and Pakistan in an attempt to mediate between the two countries after Pakistani terrorists attacked Indian tourists in Kashmir.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Israel Tourist Arrivals (April)/ Business Confidence (April)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Thursday, May 8, 2025

Global

·       The UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on a draft resolution on the mandate of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS).

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will travel to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin.

·       The 3rd Latin Consumer Summit begins in Miami, Floria.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Brazil PPI (March)/ Car Production (April)/ New Car Registrations (April)

·       Chile Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Inflation Rate (April)

·       USA Initial Jobless Claims (May/03)/ Nonfarm Productivity Q1/ Unit Labour Costs Q1/ Continuing Jobless Claims (April/26)/ Jobless Claims 4-week Average (May/03)/ Wholesale Inventories (March)/ 15- & 30-Year Mortgage Rate (May/08)/ Consumer Inflation Expectations (April)/ Fed Balance Sheet (May/07)

·       Canada Financial Stability Report

·       Colombia Inflation Rate (April)

·       Peru Interest Rate Decision/ Balance of Trade (March)

·       Argentina Industrial Production (March)

·       Costa Rica Inflation Rate (April)

·       El Salvador Inflation Rate (April)

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will end his trip to Azerbaijan and visit Russia through May 10.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report

·       Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

·       Philippines GDP Growth Rate Q1

·       Indonesia Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Motorbike Sales (April)IL

·       Malaysia Industrial Production (March)/ Interest Rate Decision

·       Taiwan Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)

·       Hong Kong Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Today is the anniversary of “VE Day”, 80 years since the surrender of Nazi Germany.

·       Russia is expected to begin a 72-hour ceasefire with Ukraine.  But most observers do not believe Russian military forces will cease fighting.

·       The Ukrainian Parliament will vote to approve the US-Ukraine economic/critical minerals deal

Economic Reports/Events –

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Anneli Tuominen moderates a panel discussion on “Repo market: Turmoil at the core of the financial system?” at SUERF BAFFI Bocconi webinar.

·       Germany Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Romania Retail Sales (March)

·       Bank of England Interest Rate Decision/Halifax House Price Index (April)/ BBA Mortgage Rate (April)

·       Hungary Industrial Production (March)/ Budget Balance (April)

·       Spain Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Balance of Trade (March)

·       Ireland Inflation Rate (April)

·       Turkey Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)/ Treasury Cash Balance (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Tuominen Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will travel to Azerbaijan for talks.  Netanyahu will discuss tensions with Turkey and Iran.

·       Turkish and Iraqi delegations will attend the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting in Ankara, Turkey.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Africa Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Manufacturing Production (March)

·       Tanzania Inflation Rate (April)

Friday, May 9, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler gives a speech on Maximum Employment at the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025, Reykjavik, Iceland.

·       New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks before the Reykjavik Economic Conference organized by the Central Bank of Iceland and the Center for International Macroeconomics at Northwestern University.  Later, he will speak on “Taylor Rules in Policy” before the Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference virtually.

·       Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher J. Waller gives a speech on monetary policy research at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference: Finishing the Job and New Challenges, Stanford, California.  Governor Lisa Cook will also speak at the conference, giving a speech on Productivity Dynamics.

·       Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack will also speak before the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference on the topic of monetary policy.

·       The Federal Reserve Board holds the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference in Washington, D.C.

·       Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee gives welcome and opening remarks before the “Fed Listens: Perspectives from the Midwest" event.

·       US Baker Hughes Total Rigs Count (May/09)

·       Brazil Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mexico Consumer Confidence (April)/ Auto Production & Exports (April)

·       Canada Unemployment Rate (April)/ Employment Change (April)/ Participation Rate (April)/ Average Hourly Wages (April)

·       Costa Rica Unemployment Rate Q1

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       South Korea Current Account (March)

·       Japan Household Spending (March)/ Average Cash Earnings (March)/ Overtime Pay (March)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)/ Coincident Index (March)/ Leading Economic Index Prel

·       Sri Lanka Tourist Arrivals (April)

·       China Imports/ Exports/ Balance of Trade (April)/ Vehicle Sales (April)/ Current Account Q1/ New Yuan Loans (April)/ M2 Money Supply (April)/ Outstanding Loan Growth (April)/ Total Social Financing (April)

·       Indonesia Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Malaysia Construction Output Q1/ Unemployment Rate (March)

·       Thailand Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       India Bank Loan Growth (April/25)/ Deposit Growth (April/25)/ Foreign Exchange Reserves (May/02)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       The European Union celebrates Europe Day, marking the 1950 declaration by the Luxembourg-born French statesman Robert Schuman proposing a continent united in solidarity, considered the first step towards the EU being formed.

·       French President Emmanuel Macron will host Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Nancy to sign a Franco-Polish economic and defense cooperation treaty.

·       Russia will celebrate Victory Day, marking the date when German forces surrendered to the Soviet army in 1945, commemorated with a military parade in Moscow’s Red Square and wreath-laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Attendees this year are set to include Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gives the keynote address at the Reykjavik economic conference 2025, hosted by Northwestern University and the Central Bank of Iceland.

·       European Central Bank Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel participates on a panel discussion at the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference “Finishing the Job and New Challenges” of Harvard University.

·       Great Britain RICS House Price Balance (April)/ BoE Bailey Speech/ NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (April)

·       Hungary Inflation Rate (April)

·       France Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)

·       Slovakia Balance of Trade (March)/ Industrial Production (March)

·       Switzerland Consumer Confidence (April)

·       Turkey Industrial Production (March)

·       Italy Industrial Production (March)

·       Slovenia Industrial Production (March)

·       Greece Inflation Rate (April)

·       Ireland Industrial Production (March)

·       Serbia Interest Rate Decision

·       Russia Vehicle Sales (April)

·       Euro Area ECB Schnabel Speech

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Egypt Inflation Rate (April)

·       Mozambique Inflation Rate (April)

Saturday, May 10, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam will visit Belarus through May 12.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       China Inflation Rate (April)/ PPI (April)

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Sunday, May 11, 2025

Global

·       Nothing significant to report.

Americas

Political/Social Events –

·       The US Department of Commerce will be holding its SelectUSA Investment Summit in Baltimore, Maryland.  The Summit, which runs through May 14, aims to attract foreign direct investment.

·       Haiti holds a Constitutional Referendum, the first referendum held in the country since 1987.   Originally scheduled for June 27, 2021, it has been repeatedly postponed because of political chaos.  The referendum puts up for a vote the abolition of the Senate and creates a unicameral legislature, abolishes the role of Prime Minister, and creates a presidential and vice-presidential system.  It would also establish mandatory military and/or civic services for those turning 18.

·       Uruguay will hold municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Uruguay Municipal Elections

Asia

Political/Social Events –

·       In South Korea, today is the registration deadline for presidential candidates hoping to run in the June 3 election. 

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Europe

Political/Social Events –

·       Albania will hold general elections. In October, Albania started discussions with the European Union on how the country aligns with EU stances on the rule of law, the functioning of democratic institutions and the fight against corruption. Prime Minister Rama hopes that Albania can join the European Union by 2030.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Middle East

Political/Social Events –

·       Lebanon will hold the second phase of its municipal elections.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Saudi Arabia Industrial Production (March)

Africa

Political/Social Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Economic Reports/Events –

·       Nothing significant to report.

Recommended Weekend Reads

The Impact of Heightened US–China Tensions on the Treasury Market, How Do US Firms Deal With Foreign Industrial Policy?, and How Drug Cartels Took Over Social Media

Growing US-China Tensions

• How China is Quietly Diversifying from US Treasuries     Financial Times

  Earlier this year, a headline caught the eye of the senior officials at China’s foreign exchange regulator, who manage the country’s multitrillion-dollar reserves: the Trump administration had overhauled the boards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The officials responded swiftly, instructing a team at the State Administration of Foreign Exchange to kick off an evaluation of the potential investment implications of the shake-up. What intrigued the officials at Safe, according to people familiar with the matter, is that they saw mortgage-backed securities — which come with an implicit US government guarantee — or even equity stakes in Fannie and Freddie themselves, as possible alternatives to Treasuries… many [Chinese] advisers, scholars and academics are voicing concern. As “The safety of US Treasuries is no longer a given…”

• Will China Escalate?      Foreign Affairs

  In 2021, at the contentious first meeting between senior Chinese foreign policy officials and their counterparts in the Biden administration, Beijing’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, declared that the United States could no longer “speak with China from a position of strength.” In the four years since, Beijing has operated under the assumption that a profound shift in the balance of power between the two countries is underway. Chinese strategists perceive their country’s decades-long “strategic weakness” in its competition with the United States as coming to an end, driven by steady advances in China’s industrial, technological, and military capabilities and an increase in its international influence. This progress has ushered in what Beijing views as a “strategic stalemate” with the United States, in which both nations now wield comparable power. But despite the low immediate risk of conflict between the United States and China, the current stalemate may not prove durable. Over the next four years, the risk of a military crisis will likely rise as the two countries increasingly test each other’s resolve.
  

• Charting the End State for US Strategy Toward China   Collective Commentary/Foreign Policy Research Institute

  As trade tensions between the US and China grow and bring with them new levels of political and military tensions, a group of China experts at the FPRI offers perspectives on how Trump needs to formulate a China strategy and stop dealing with China tactically.

• China’s New Economic Weapons     Evan Medeiros & Andrew Polk/Washington Quarterly

  In the past decade, China’s use of economic coercion has become a common and well-studied feature of its economic statecraft.  For the most part, China has used conventional coercive tools such as stopping its purchasing of goods and services (e.g., commodities and tourism), withholding investments, restricting foreign companies’ operations in China, and “spontaneous” consumer boycotts, all as a means of imposing economic costs on others. China’s track record in altering other countries’ calculations has been decidedly mixed, and its actions have even generated some backlash by countries newly concerned about such predation.  However, since 2018, this pattern of behavior has been evolving. China’s economic statecraft—specifically its tools of coercion—has been expanding.

• DeepSeek’s release of an open-weight frontier AI model    International Institute for Strategic Studies

  The January 2025 release of a frontier reasoning large language model by the Chinese firm DeepSeek, nearly matching the performance of top American closed models at a fraction of the cost, has intensified the debate over the geopolitics of artificial intelligence. It appears that US export controls forced DeepSeek to seek optimizations regarding memory management and the use of synthetic data.

Americas

• After Canada’s Election:  An Energy Abundance Strategy for North America   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  One outcome from North America’s three recent elections is clear—a citizenry that is more “energy literate” when it comes to the importance of policymakers getting this critical issue right. Simply put, energy is the lifeblood of the North American economy.  While the North American relationship is certainly replete with challenges, there is an opportunity in the coming year to thread the needle and move towards an abundance strategy for the region’s energy sources. Notably, this could represent a rare moment of North American alignment on a critical issue for the region’s future.

• Argentina’s Realignment with the United States: Milei’s Reforms Gain Strategic Support   Center for Strategic and International Studies

  Argentina’s rapprochement to the United States under President Javier Milei is not just ideological—it is strategic. While pushing through painful economic reforms at home, Milei is aligning with Washington on multiple fronts: International Monetary Fund (IMF) negotiations, defense ties (NATO partnership bid and F-16 purchase), and personal diplomacy with U.S. President Donald Trump. U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent’s one-day stop in Buenos Aires—right as the new FX regime kicked in and amid Trump’s tariff rollout—was no coincidence. It signals that Argentina is being treated as the closest ally in South America, where U.S. influence is under pressure under China’s global rise.

• How Drug Cartels Took Over Social Media      The Atlantic

  Cartels are influencers now. They have converted their criminality into a commodity, broadcasting with impunity while law enforcement and social-media platforms struggle to rein them in. On TikTok, drug traffickers filmed themselves fleeing from customs agents in a high-speed boat chase, garnering millions of likes. Some content is less Miami Vice and more cottagecore: farmers harvesting poppy seeds, for instance. Keep scrolling and you might find henchmen bagging bales of $100 bills, tiger cubs lounging in trucks, and dogs trotting with decapitated heads in their mouths.

Global Markets and Economics

• U.S. Treasury Market Functioning from the GFC to the Pandemic    Federal Reserve Bank of New York

  Abstract: This article examines U.S. Treasury securities market functioning from the global financial crisis (GFC) through the Covid-19 pandemic given the ensuing market developments and associated policy responses. We describe the factors that have affected intermediaries, including regulatory changes, shifts in ownership patterns, and increased electronic trading. We also discuss their implications for market functioning in both normal times and times of stress. We find that alternative liquidity providers have stepped in as constraints on dealer liquidity provision have tightened, supporting liquidity during normal times, but with less clear effects at times of stress. We conclude with a brief discussion of more recent policy initiatives that are intended to promote market resilience.

• How Do U.S. Firms Withstand Foreign Industrial Policies?   Xiao Cen, Vyacheslav Fos, & Wei Jiang/National Bureau of Economic Research

  China’s industrial policies (“Five-Year Plans”) displace U.S. production/employment and heighten plant closures in the same industries as those targeted by the policies in China. The impact was not anticipated by the stock market, but U.S. companies in the "treated industries" suffer a valuation loss afterwards. Firms shift production to upstream or downstream industries, benefiting from the boost, or offshore to government-endorsed industries in China. Such within-firm adjustments offset the direct impact. U.S. firms are better able to withstand foreign government interventions provided that they enjoy flexibility, including preexisting business toeholds in the "beneficiary" industries, financial access, and labor fluidity.

• Stock Buybacks and Tax Neutrality: Should Congress Repeal the 1% Excise Tax on Buybacks?    Kyle Pomerleau & John Ricco/Tax Notes

  Lawmakers enacted a 1 percent excise tax on stock buybacks, in part to address concerns that buybacks were tax-favored relative to dividends and had a negative effect on corporate investment. The excise tax does reduce the tax differential between dividends and buybacks, but it does so at the cost of increasing the overall tax burden on saving and investment. Moreover, it introduces and increases existing distortions across types of taxpayers, legal forms of business organization, and forms of financing. Alternative reforms could similarly reduce or eliminate the distortion without introducing others, but they come with important trade-offs of their own.